AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE IS HOW FAST PESKY MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL ERODE.  STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS NEARLY STUCK
ACRS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850
MB WAS PROVIDING FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME THROUGH THE LAYER.
AS A RESULT...ONLY DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR ON
DISSIPATING THE DECK.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
INDICATING THAT THIS INDEED WAS OCCURRING ACRS THE WEST.  WILL ONLY
EMPLOY A SCATTERED DECK AT KSBN WITH TAF ISSUANCE.  FARTHER
EAST...THE EROSION PROCESS HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER.  THEREFORE...WILL
HAVE TO FCST A BKN MVFR DECK AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THROUGH LATE
AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACRS THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY AFTN.  AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...MID
AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE FCST AREA.  LOCAL RAOBS AND RUC40
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS NEAR 900 MB...AND IT
IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA TODAY...CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME EXITING THE REGION AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERHEAD.  AS
A RESULT...THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
LATE AUTUMN SUNSHINE IN ORDER TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK.  WILL UPDATE
THE ZONES/GRIDS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LONGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT EVENTUALLY HOPING THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
WILL ALSO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MI TO SRN IL AND MOVG
SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH
INVERSION BASED AROUND 925MB TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE AREA PAST DAYBREAK WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E DURING
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN OH BY 00Z MON. LOWERED MAXES A
FEW DEGS FM PREVIOUS FCST IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER LATEST MAV/MET
FCSTS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN WK MIXING AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVE AND
WINDS LIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. A SHRTWV
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE MS
VLY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HWVR,
SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
CONTG SE MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO MOS SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT FORCING WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME AND WHAT MSTR EXISTS WITH IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE PULLED BY DAY SHIFT AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS THINKING AS AT BEST A SPRINKLE OR 2 MAY OCCUR.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SYSTEM ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE
TUES NGT/WEDS TIME FRAME. WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS COMING OUT OF
00Z RUNS BY 12Z WEDS...WITH ECMWF FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS N IL...TO
NAM OVER CNTRL IL...GFS OVER W TENNESSEE...AND UKMET OVER N
LOUISIANA. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE MANY IMPLICATIONS ON AMOUNT OF PRECIP
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS HAVING
THE LOW TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA WOULD SUGGEST MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT INCREASING CHCS FOR MEASURABLE QPF. CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES EVE THEN HIGH CHC TUES NGT INTO WEDS.
WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY ON WEDS BUT IF FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...MAIN PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE TILL WEDS NGT/THURS SO
WILL LEAVE THINGS ALONE. ALL PRECIP THROUGH THURS SHOULD BE IN THE
LIQUID FORM...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. BY 00Z FRI MODELS DO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM NE LK HURON TO LAKE ERIE OR
NW OHIO. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
THURS AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BE PULLED
NORTH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES JUST AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FRI TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH MODEL ISSUES THAT FAR OUT TO PRECLUDE PRECIP MENTION.
IF SCENARIO WORKED OUT WOULD BE SHOT AT SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVING
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR SO WILL KEEP THURS NGT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...FISHER
</PRE></TT></td>   in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...STRONG 900MB INVERSION STILL HANGING ON OVER INDIANA THIS
MORNING.  H85 RIDGE MAX IS STILL SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LACK OF CLEARING.  RUC SHOWING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AND UNTIL THE RIDGE MAX PASSES TO OUR EAST
SUBSIDENCE WONT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THE INVERSION TO THE
GROUND.  THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FILL IN WHICH
WILL ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.  WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
BELOW 900MB WOULD NOT EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP UNTIL THE 18Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME.  BECAUSE OF THIS WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF
DAYTIME HIGHS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 121200Z TAF ISSUANCE. HI PRES CENTERED
OVR IL AT 11Z. MVFR CLOUD LINE IS LOCATED ALONG INDIANA ILLINOIS
BORDER. SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INVERSION PERSISTING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS AROUND UNTIL
THEN. 95 PERCENT RH FROM THE NAM AT 925 MB MATCHES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT LOW CIGS AND AGREES WITH SOUNDINGS ON TIMING OF VFR.
INVERSION SHUD MIX OUT AT ALL SITES BY 17Z AND MIX CIGS TO VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO WORK WITH TODAY WILL BE
THE CLOUDS. THIS MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A LINGERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING TRAPPED OVER THE AREA BY AN INVERSION. ONCE
THE INVERSION BREAKS MID TO LATE MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT.
THE NEXT CLOUD PROBLEM IS AN AREA OF CI THAT IS OVER ILLINOIS MOVING
EAST. ONLY THE GFS HAS THIS MOVING INTO INDIANA. WITH ITS PRESENT
STEADY MOVEMENT THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN IT DOES
MOVE IN HOW DENSE WILL IT BE. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS THIN
ENOUGH TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE SOME ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO INDIANA DURING THE DAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER INDIANA
TONIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE MOISTURE. WITH
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A WARM UP FOR
PART OF THE DAY. WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE FORECAST. DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
UPDATE...SALLY
AVIATION...CP
PUBLIC...HAINES
</PRE></TT></td>   in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
855 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE FCST AREA.  LOCAL RAOBS AND RUC40
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS NEAR 900 MB...AND IT
IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA TODAY...CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME EXITING THE REGION AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERHEAD.  AS
A RESULT...THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
LATE AUTUMN SUNSHINE IN ORDER TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK.  WILL UPDATE
THE ZONES/GRIDS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LONGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT EVENTUALLY HOPING THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
WILL ALSO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER.
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MI TO SRN IL AND MOVG
SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH
INVERSION BASED AROUND 925MB TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE AREA PAST DAYBREAK WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E DURING
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN OH BY 00Z MON. LOWERED MAXES A
FEW DEGS FM PREVIOUS FCST IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER LATEST MAV/MET
FCSTS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN WK MIXING AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVE AND
WINDS LIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. A SHRTWV
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE MS
VLY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HWVR,
SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
CONTG SE MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO MOS SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT FORCING WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME AND WHAT MSTR EXISTS WITH IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE PULLED BY DAY SHIFT AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS THINKING AS AT BEST A SPRINKLE OR 2 MAY OCCUR.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SYSTEM ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE
TUES NGT/WEDS TIME FRAME. WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS COMING OUT OF
00Z RUNS BY 12Z WEDS...WITH ECMWF FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS N IL...TO
NAM OVER CNTRL IL...GFS OVER W TENNESSEE...AND UKMET OVER N
LOUISIANA. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE MANY IMPLICATIONS ON AMOUNT OF PRECIP
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS HAVING
THE LOW TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA WOULD SUGGEST MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT INCREASING CHCS FOR MEASURABLE QPF. CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES EVE THEN HIGH CHC TUES NGT INTO WEDS.
WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY ON WEDS BUT IF FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...MAIN PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE TILL WEDS NGT/THURS SO
WILL LEAVE THINGS ALONE. ALL PRECIP THROUGH THURS SHOULD BE IN THE
LIQUID FORM...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. BY 00Z FRI MODELS DO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM NE LK HURON TO LAKE ERIE OR
NW OHIO. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
THURS AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BE PULLED
NORTH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES JUST AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FRI TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH MODEL ISSUES THAT FAR OUT TO PRECLUDE PRECIP MENTION.
IF SCENARIO WORKED OUT WOULD BE SHOT AT SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVING
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR SO WILL KEEP THURS NGT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MI TO SE IL ATTM. LARGE
STRATO CU DECK WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE SFC RIDGE. A COUPLE OF LARGE
HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS DECK OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
THESE WILL EXPAND INTO NRN INDIANA BY 18Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLOUD FREE OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY
AND PSBLY A CIRROSTRATUS DECK MOVG INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS A WKNG SHRTWV/CDFNT APPROACHES. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT MAY CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMP,
HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT FOG AND DOUBT
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRATUS SO CONTD VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...FISHER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TAYLOR
</PRE></TT></td>   in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 12Z
HAS PROGRESSED INTO COLORADO, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF UVV, AND
LIGHT ECHOES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS OUR RADAR SCOPE IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE STILL GREATER
THAN 20 DEGREES AT THE SFC IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND THE 850MB OBS
FROM THIS MORNING SHOW SIMILAR PATHETIC MOISTURE. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE MID LEVELS AND LITTLE IF ANY IS REACHING
THE GROUND. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF TONIGHT THOUGH, AND RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
GETTING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR SOMETHING TO REACH THE
GROUND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN
UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC FRONT SHOULD BE PAST
US.
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS,
DIMINISHING WINDS, AND LOW DEWPOINTS, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE LEE SFC TROUGH SHOULD
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MODELS HAVE
STRONG RH AT HIGH LEVELS THOUGH, SO SOME CIRRUS AGAIN LOOKS
PROBABLE. HIGHS IN THE 50S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE, SO ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING
TEMPS FAIRLY MIXED AND A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHT. WARMING SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS C. CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR, SO CONTINUED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OF 10-
15 FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
DAYS 3-7...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
A DEEPENING MID-WEEK SYSTEM.  BASED ON EXPECTED FORCING FROM THE
TROPICS AND RESULTING AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM...THE SYSTEM THAT
CURRENTLY IS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER, EVERYTHING WILL LIKELY BE
TOO FAR EAST OF MY CWA TO OFFER MUCH HOPE FOR PCPN.  WIND AND
BRIEFLY COLDER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE OFFING THOUGH.  THEN A QUICK
WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN
IN RESPONSE TO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  55  36  60 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  26  54  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  26  57  35  65 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  25  57  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  28  55  37  57 /  30   0   0  10
P28  33  58  40  62 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN26/07
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
254 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO SURFACE LOW NEAR KDHT. RADARS
PICKING UP ON SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON
QPF FOR TONIGHT WITH THE RUC KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY BUT
FOCUSING ON NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH 06Z. GFS BROADER WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MORNING
SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL
TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE THE AIRMASS FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT
WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 09Z. HAVE EXTENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 09Z. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF H5 PATTERN AND THE AFFECTS ON THE
SURFACE FEATURES. GFS IS STILL MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF H5 TROUGH. WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...A WEAKER VERSION OF THE GFS IS STILL PREFERRED. AS UPPER
FEATURE DIGS IN...SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE TOP CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A
QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT STILL KEPT LIQUID PRECIP AS STILL PLENTY OF
DOUBT ON COLD AIR TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH GOOD WAA.
OFFSETTING THE WAA SOMEWHAT WILL BE  SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUD COVER.
BY COMPARISON...STRONG CAA BEHIND SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
WEDS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP H5 LOW LIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIALLY
RETURN TO ZONAL BEFORE RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK SLOW TO REBOUND AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
STAY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
810 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ZONE/GRID UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE NORTHWARD MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP...REDUCING POPS TO THE SOUTH IMMEDIATELY...AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS BAND OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THE RESULT OF 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPED AS CLOSED LOW
OVER MID-ATLANTIC RUNS INTO RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP WAS
ENHANCED BY LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL FRONT.
BOTH RUC/NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...AND INDICATE
THAT DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED FG DO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
NORTH...SO...EXPECTING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN TO DIMINISH.
DID ISSUE AN FLS FOR GRAFTON/SULLIVAN IN NH THOUGH AS THIS AREA
SEEMED TO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE AND RADAR ESTIMATES
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES. ONCE THE BAND LIFTS THRU...THERE SEEMS TO BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC TO
COVER A FEW SHRA...AND OCCNL DZ. -CEMPA
&&
.AVIATION...
ANY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CIGS OR VIS THIS EVE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY BRING BACK THE LOW ST AND
EVENTUALLY DZ THRU THE OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIG/VIS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY...AS SOME MIXING WILL DRY THINGS OUT A
LITTLE BIT....BUT THE THREAT OF RA WILL REMAIN.  -CEMPA
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES TO COVER SEAS...RUNNING 3-5 FT THRU TONIGHT...AS NE
FLOW PERSISTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.  -CEMPA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 212 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST DAMP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THIS MEANS
OCNL RAIN DRIZZLE AND FOG. SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND JUST NORTH OF COASTAL FRONT AXIS WHICH MAY
MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY SO WILL
FORECAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. WILL BASE TONIGHTS AND
MONDAYS FORECAST ON GFS SOLUTION WHICH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF LOW
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY LIFTS IT NORTHWARD. NAM MODEL HAS BEEN THROWN OUT SINCE ITS
VERY ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF LATE. QPF AMTS TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HEAVIER AMTS EXPECTED IN THE LATER PERIODS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 CUT OFF LOW OVER LONG ISLAND NY MON NIGHT OPENS UP AND MOVES
NORTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON TUE.  SURFACE LOW SWINGS UP INTO
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY APROX SAME TIME FRAME.  DECENT ONSHORE/UPSLOPE
FLOW COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE HEALTHY SOAKING
TUE NIGHT...SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MID TO
LATE DAY TUE.  WED DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH STILL MINIMAL CHANCE
SHOWERS THROUGH THU. NEXT SYSTEM PROG'D TO BRING ANOTHER SOAKING TO
REGION LATER THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON WITH 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE 2 INCH RANGE...THEN LOOKS LIKE DRYING OUT ON TAP FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO SAT. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER ON FRONT SIDE OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SEAS AND
WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A VERY LONG ONSHORE FETCH CONTINUES
AND LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...SCA'S ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS MON NIGHT INTO THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH STRONG SCA'S FOR WIND...POSSIBLY GALE...LATER THU INTO
EARLY FRI.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1015 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS TIMING ONSET OF -SN AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE WRN PLAINS. AT LEADING EDGE OF TROF...00Z RAOBS SHOW
90-100KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM MN INTO ONTARIO. ACTUALLY...IT
APPEARS THERE ARE TWO JET STREAKS. ONE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MANITOBA. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS JET IS PROBABLY AIDING BAND OF PCPN
DEVELOPING IN NE MN. OTHER JET IS OVER CNTRL/SW MN. RIGHT ENTRANCE
DIVERGENCE WITH THIS JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER
FORCING AHEAD OF WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PCPN FROM ERN KS/ERN NEBRASKA INTO IA. BANDED
APPEARANCE OF PCPN SUGGESTS FRONTOGENESIS IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...PCPN HAS BEEN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS.
00Z RUC SHOWS MN JET STREAK INCREASING TO 115KT AS IT TRANSLATES
NNE INTO NE MN/NRN ONTARIO BY 12Z. SHARPENING ISOTACH GRADIENT AT
THE SAME TIME SUGGESTS UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET
SHOULD STRENGTHEN. DEEP LAYER FORCING INDICATED BY 850-300MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALSO STRENGTHENS WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...DECENT FRONTOGENESIS WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN UPPER MI.
SO...SIGNAL IS CLEAR THAT PCPN THAT IS EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING TO THE
W AND SW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY...THERE IS DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE 900-700MB
LAYER PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING (DWPT DEPRESSION AROUND 15C). EVENING
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM FLIGHTS OUT OF KCMX/KSAW SHOW THE DRY AIR EVEN
MORE DRAMATICALLY WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS UPWARDS OF 35C. THIS DRY AIR
WILL OBVIOUSLY DELAY ONSET OF PCPN AND CUT DOWN PCPN AMOUNTS SOME.
EVEN SO...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND INCREASING INTENSITY OF RADAR
RETURNS UPSTREAM THIS EVENING SUGGEST SNOW MAY BRIEFLY BE MDT/HVY
WHEN MAX FORCING PASSES. MOISTURE FOR SYSTEM IS NOT BAD
(PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A LITTLE OVER A HALF INCH OR 150-170 PCT OF
NORMAL ACROSS MN/IA)...BUT IF MORE MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE...WOULD
DEFINITELY BE CONCERNED WITH ADVY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEARING ADVY WITH 3-4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
QUITE LIKELY OVER THE W WHERE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS
SHOULD TRAIL OFF TO THE E SINCE STRONGEST FORCING LIFTS MORE N THAN
E.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING WILL BE MADE TO SNOW ONSET.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN FAR W AROUND 06Z AND SPREAD TO KIMT/KMQT AROUND
12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 405 PM EST
SYNOPSIS...
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH SHRTWV ENERGY INTO WY AND 80 KT 300 MB JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH INTO MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...STRONG STIFF SRLY
WINDS PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES AND A TROF FROM SE MANITOBA AND NW MN INTO ERN SD/NE.
RADARS INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NE MN WITH SOME
VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3SM. THE PCPN WAS SUPPORTED BY MODERATE 800-600 MB
FGEN. OTHERWISE...VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWED EXTENSIVE SC DECK
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL AND E UPR MI WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO W UPR MI.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW TIMING/AMOUNTS ALONG WITH PCPN TYPE EAST.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
MID LVL TROF AXIS INTO MN BY 12Z/MON AND CNTRL UPR MI BY 00Z/TUE.
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND 800-600 FGEN WILL
SUPPORT BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND
MON. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
300 MB JET WILL ALSO AID VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW OFF THE E COAST AND RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NE CONUS AND ERN
CANADA...THE MDL TREND TOWARD LIFTING THE TROUGH AND BEST QG
DYNAMICS MORE TO THE ENE SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
GREATER SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEST THIRD OF UPPER MI. SNOW/WATER
RATIO IN THE 10/1-14/1 RANGE...PER COBB ALGORITHM...WITH MDLS
CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE WOULD GIVE 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN
THE WEST AND 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS CNTRL AND AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE ERN
CWA. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST LOWER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH OVER THE
EAST HALF OF UPPER MI FOR MIX WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MONDAY\S SHRTWV IS EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WEAK RIDGING WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IDAHO IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. NEXT CONCERN IS SKY COVER...SINCE WITH FRESH SNOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO COME IN...THE CLOUDS WILL REALLY
IMPACT HOW COLD WE CAN GET. SUBSIDENCE COMING IN BEHIND MONDAY\S
SHRTWV SHOULD HELP REMOVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
SEEN EXPANDING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV\S ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES DURING THE
NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RETURN FLOW
MAY RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE ADVECTED OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN. FOR
NOW HAVE RAISED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POTENTIAL CLOUD
SOURCES...AND THUS RAISED TEMPERATURES CLOSER THE 12Z VERSION OF THE
MAV COOP GUIDANCE. IF MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...LOWS WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED MORE.
TUESDAY...A SHRTWV LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF OREGON...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE 130 KT JET OBSERVED THERE...IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MISSOURI AT 12Z. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS SHRTWV AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGING THAT
JUST MOVED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE UKMET SPLITTING IT INTO
TWO (PART HEADING INTO MANITOBA AND THE OTHER INTO INDIANA)...AND
THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. IN EITHER EVENT...MID
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IS FINE. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW AS
MENTIONED IN MONDAY NIGHT\S DISCUSSION COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HIGH AND HAVE
CUT TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AT 00Z. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT THIS UPPER
LOW WOULD SHEAR OUT AND CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. THIS IS DUE TO
ANOTHER SHRTWV...SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...THAT
DIGS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE UKMET DIGS THE SHRTWV ALL
THE WAY TO TEXARKANA BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAR SOUTH
(MOSTLY INTO NE OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI)...BUT STILL FARTHER SOUTH
THAN YESTERDAY. SINCE THE SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW IS NOT PROGGED TO
AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED IT
DUE TO THE GFS BIAS TOWARD GOING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AS TIME
PROGRESSES AND THAT THE AFTERNOON IS TYPICALLY THE HARDEST TIME OF
THE DAY FOR LAKE EFFECT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
PREDICTED...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FROM EITHER
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM TUESDAY OR HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT AND RISING TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.
GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COVER MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE SHRTWV DESCRIBED IN WEDNESDAY\S
DISCUSSION...EITHER OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (UKMET) OR IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN 00Z ECMWF). THIS SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW. BY 00Z FRI...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING AN UPPER 980S MB LOW NEAR THE EASTERN END OF GEORGIAN
BAY. AS THIS DEEPENING PROCESSES OCCURS...COLDER AIR SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...DEFORMATION BANDING ON
THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW MAY START TO IMPACT THE EASTERN U.P..
HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY CAUSE
THE PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN...NOTED BY THE GFS RAISING
850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0C BY 00Z FRI. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
BAND MAY NOT AFFECT THE CWA...THOUGH...GIVEN THE TIGHT PRECIPITATION
GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND THE TIGHT 850MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GRADIENT ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO
BE SLOWER MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH
ALLOWS FOR COLDER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ENOUGH THAT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADDED IN. BY SUNDAY...ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO END LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLOWER DEPARTURE...CAUSED BY A SHRTWV THAT
EJECTS OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC TROUGH AND CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF SOME COLDER AIR PERIOD DURING THIS
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
ROLFSON (UPDATE)
JLB (SHORT TERM)
AJ (LONG TERM)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
843 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 900MB.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL TOO DRY BELOW THIS INVERSION LEVEL BASED ON
THE DTX SOUNDING. IT IS NO SURPRISE THEN THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS
NOT DIMINISHED MUCH SINCE SUNSET. WITH THE FLOW NEAR THE CLOUD BASE
FORECAST BY BOTH RUC AND NAM12 TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
06Z...EXPECT THE STRATUS THAT IS NOW COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAS ALREADY SHOWED THE STRATUS ADVANCING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED PROLONGED CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 30...WILL INCREASE TEMPS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 624 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF DETROIT BY 12Z
MON. 19-22Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTW SHOW A STRONG INVERSION
ABOVE 2800FT AGL. THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLEAR SKIES NOW PRESENT FROM ANN ARBOR UP TO CARO. EXPECT THIS
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST ABOVE THE INVERSION LEVEL
TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
WEAKENING AND LOWERING THE INVERSION TOO MUCH TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER IS FORECAST TO BECOMING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 03Z...WHICH MAY ALLOW THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS
DECK PRESENT OVER ONTARIO AND OHIO TO BUILD BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
IF THE CLEAR SKIES MANAGE TO PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...THEN REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN AFTER 08Z. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS ADDED MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. SLOW EROSION OF
STRATOCU TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AS RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE WARMER
AIRMASS TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR AND
CALM) WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 20'S.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE IN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND LACK OF IDENTIFIABLE
SURFACE FEATURE WILL KEEP LIFT VERY MINIMAL. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMALS...IN THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LARGE STORM STILL SET FOR MID/LATE THIS WEEK AND ONLY HAVE TO ADJUST
TIMING SLIGHTLY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN LIFTING THE LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL BACK OFF ON WORDING
SLIGHTLY AND FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT &
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED CONTINUITY OF THE MODELS...WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO 60% OR BETTER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM STILL LEADS TO A LARGE INGESTION
OF MILD/MOIST ATLANTIC AIR IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE THE
MAIN EVENT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE COLD AIR IN THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AND
ALLOWS A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PERHAPS ALL LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...ALLOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASICALLY INTACT.
GENERALLY COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE MILDEST PERIOD
AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY. THEREAFTER...A COOLING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB TO 40 OR BETTER.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHULER
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION/UPDATE...CONSIDINE
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASK AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH SHRTWV ENERGY INTO WY AND 80 KT 300 MB JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH INTO MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...STRONG STIFF SRLY
WINDS PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES AND A TROF FROM SE MANITOBA AND NW MN INTO ERN SD/NE.
RADARS INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NE MN WITH SOME
VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3SM. THE PCPN WAS SUPPORTED BY MODERATE 800-600 MB
FGEN. OTHERWISE...VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWED EXTENSIVE SC DECK
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL AND E UPR MI WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO W UPR MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW TIMING/AMOUNTS ALONG WITH PCPN TYPE EAST.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
MID LVL TROF AXIS INTO MN BY 12Z/MON AND CNTRL UPR MI BY 00Z/TUE.
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND 800-600 FGEN WILL
SUPPORT BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND
MON. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
300 MB JET WILL ALSO AID VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW OFF THE E COAST AND RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NE CONUS AND ERN
CANADA...THE MDL TREND TOWARD LIFTING THE TROUGH AND BEST QG
DYNAMICS MORE TO THE ENE SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
GREATER SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEST THIRD OF UPPER MI. SNOW/WATER
RATIO IN THE 10/1-14/1 RANGE...PER COBB ALGORITHM...WITH MDLS
CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE WOULD GIVE 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN
THE WEST AND 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS CNTRL AND AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE ERN
CWA. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST LOWER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH OVER THE
EAST HALF OF UPPER MI FOR MIX WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MONDAY\S SHRTWV IS EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WEAK RIDGING WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IDAHO IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. NEXT CONCERN IS SKY COVER...SINCE WITH FRESH SNOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO COME IN...THE CLOUDS WILL REALLY
IMPACT HOW COLD WE CAN GET. SUBSIDENCE COMING IN BEHIND MONDAY\S
SHRTWV SHOULD HELP REMOVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
SEEN EXPANDING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV\S ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES DURING THE
NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RETURN FLOW
MAY RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE ADVECTED OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN. FOR
NOW HAVE RAISED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POTENTIAL CLOUD
SOURCES...AND THUS RAISED TEMPERATURES CLOSER THE 12Z VERSION OF THE
MAV COOP GUIDANCE. IF MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...LOWS WILL NEED
TO BE RAISED MORE.
TUESDAY...A SHRTWV LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF OREGON...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE 130 KT JET OBSERVED THERE...IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MISSOURI AT 12Z. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS SHRTWV AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGING THAT
JUST MOVED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE UKMET SPLITTING IT INTO
TWO (PART HEADING INTO MANITOBA AND THE OTHER INTO INDIANA)...AND
THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. IN EITHER EVENT...MID
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IS FINE. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW AS
MENTIONED IN MONDAY NIGHT\S DISCUSSION COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HIGH AND HAVE
CUT TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AT 00Z. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT THIS UPPER
LOW WOULD SHEAR OUT AND CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. THIS IS DUE TO
ANOTHER SHRTWV...SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...THAT
DIGS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE UKMET DIGS THE SHRTWV ALL
THE WAY TO TEXARKANA BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAR SOUTH
(MOSTLY INTO NE OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI)...BUT STILL FARTHER SOUTH
THAN YESTERDAY. SINCE THE SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW IS NOT PROGGED TO
AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED IT
DUE TO THE GFS BIAS TOWARD GOING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AS TIME
PROGRESSES AND THAT THE AFTERNOON IS TYPICALLY THE HARDEST TIME OF
THE DAY FOR LAKE EFFECT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
PREDICTED...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FROM EITHER
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM TUESDAY OR HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT AND RISING TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.
GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COVER MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE SHRTWV DESCRIBED IN WEDNESDAY\S
DISCUSSION...EITHER OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (UKMET) OR IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN 00Z ECMWF). THIS SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW. BY 00Z FRI...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING AN UPPER 980S MB LOW NEAR THE EASTERN END OF GEORGIAN
BAY. AS THIS DEEPENING PROCESSES OCCURS...COLDER AIR SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...DEFORMATION BANDING ON
THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW MAY START TO IMPACT THE EASTERN U.P..
HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY CAUSE
THE PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN...NOTED BY THE GFS RAISING
850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0C BY 00Z FRI. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
BAND MAY NOT AFFECT THE CWA...THOUGH...GIVEN THE TIGHT PRECIPITATION
GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND THE TIGHT 850MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GRADIENT ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO
BE SLOWER MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH
ALLOWS FOR COLDER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ENOUGH THAT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADDED IN. BY SUNDAY...ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO END LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLOWER DEPARTURE...CAUSED BY A SHRTWV THAT
EJECTS OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC TROUGH AND CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF SOME COLDER AIR PERIOD DURING THIS
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
JLB (SHORT TERM)
AJ (LONG TERM)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUDS TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
SCATTERING OUT. THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REFUSES TO RELENT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THEN VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS FINALLY
SCOUR OUT. CIRROSTRATUS WILL THEN MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1145 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
UPDATE...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT 925MB IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND LATEST MODEL DATA INSISTS RAPID EROSION OF THIS
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING
TREND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
WE COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE...BUT WE DO STILL EXPECT
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ABOUT 3
DEGREES. BUT DO HOWEVER STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO ALLOW MIXING UP TO 925MB...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40'S.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
AVIATION...
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE...
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST
TONIGHT.
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER
MODEL SOUNDINGS.
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN T
     SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...JDS
SHORT TERM...DWD
LONG TERM....BGM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1145 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT 925MB IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND LATEST MODEL DATA INSISTS RAPID EROSION OF THIS
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING
TREND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
WE COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE...BUT WE DO STILL EXPECT
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ABOUT 3
DEGREES. BUT DO HOWEVER STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO ALLOW MIXING UP TO 925MB...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40'S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
AVIATION...
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE...
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST
TONIGHT.
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER
MODEL SOUNDINGS.
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN T
     SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDS
SHORT TERM...DWD
LONG TERM....BGM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST
TONIGHT.
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER
MODEL SOUNDINGS.
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...
     NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...
     UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION AND UPDATE...DWD
SHORT TERM...DWD
LONG TERM....BGM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
936 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
STILL A BIT TRICKY SITUATION OVERNIGHT. LAPS 1000-850 THICKNESS
OF 1305 METERS DIPS DOWN NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AND BACK NW TOWARD
KAXN. THIS GENERALLY IN AREA WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. 00Z RUC
AND NAM SHOWING FAVORABLE THICKNESSES FOR SNOW DROPPING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE COLUMN COOLING IN WI
OVERNIGHT. KMPX SOUNDING DID SHOW SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL..WHICH DID WORK OUT. LOTS OF TEMPS IN MID 30S...AND
EVEN UPPER 30S IN WI...SO THERE WILL BE SOME MELTING INITIALLY.
AS FAR AS FORCING GOES..THERE IS A FRONTOGENETIC SIGNATURE OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN..WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO WI OVERNIGHT. THETA E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
IS CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF FRONTOGENESIS AREA. THE THETA E
ADVECTION WEAKENS OR MOVES OFF FARTHER EAST OF OUR WI AREA LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE INITIALLY WARM TEMPS...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FORCING.. FEEL THAT THE AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE OK IN WI..AND
AROUND 2 IN EASTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006/
DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY REVOLVE
AROUND A SNOW EVENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF
MORE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES
WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FWF BLOSSOMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CROSS SECTION
SHOWS BOTH DEEP MOISTURE AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION
PEAKING IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. OMEGA
IS ALSO MAXIMIZED AT AND JUST BELOW THE PREFERRED TEMPERATURES FOR
ICE CRYSTALS FORMATION. LAYER EPV IS A LITTLE MORE POSITIVE THAN WHAT
IS PREFERRED BUT A SMALL AREA OF .25 OR LESS DOES EXIST. 295K
THETA SURFACE INDICATES MIXING RATIOS OF 3 G/KG. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
COBB TECHNIQUE INDICATES 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT BOTH EAU AND
HYR WITH SNOW AMOUNTS DIMINISHING BACK TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE
TWIN CITIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 2 TO 3 INCH FORECAST FOR WEST
CENTRAL WI BUT A LITTLE CONCERNED GIVEN THE FORCING THAT THE
LADYSMITH TO EAU CLAIRE AREA COULD BE HIGHER. 12Z NCEP NMM WRF
SHOWS AT LEAST .25 LIQUID ACCUMULATION BY 12Z MONDAY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHILE THE NCEP ARW WRF SHOWS THE .25 AREA JUST
EAST OF THE FA. COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST WAS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FEW CHANGES
MADE TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DEEPENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SINGLE RUN GFS SOLUTION IS STILL
BANKING ON A BIG STORM JUST SOUTH OF HERE ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF
NOT AS DEEP...FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH MORE OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN.
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. ONE THING FOR SURE IS
THAT WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA WILL BE COLDER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ON TUESDAY...MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO SNOW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE FA IN THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/JPR
</PRE></TT></td>   mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
715 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.NEAR TERM (TODAY)...
AT 8Z WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED 500MB LOW HAD
FINALLY CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AN INTENSE
VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA (40 VORTICITY UNITS
ACCORDING TO THE RUC...IMPRESSIVE)...AND AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WITH 2.4 MB
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE 500 MB LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD LEAD TO COASTAL LOW FORMATION BETWEEN
CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT NC THIS MORNING. THIS DATA BASED
FORECAST IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z/6Z NAM/0Z NGM AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE 0Z ECMWF AND 3Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN (BOTH ARE A
LITTLE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH THEIR COASTAL LOW AT 12Z THIS
MORNING). THE 0Z GFS DEVELOPS THIS LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COAST THIS MORNING...AS DO THE 0Z UKMET AND CANADIAN (BUT A TAD
FURTHER SW).
BASED ON THE DATA SUPPORTING THE NAM/NGM AND TO A
LARGE DEGREE ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...HAVE USED THE
NAM FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (ALSO NOTING THAT IT DID
A VERY GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED CROSS THE EAST FORK OF LONG ISLAND/FAR
SOUTHEAST CT OVERNIGHT). BASED ON THIS...AND THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOWING NO EASTWARD PROGRESS (ACTUALLY SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT)
TO RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL PA/NY...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO
HOLD OF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
START THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATE MORNING
(HIGHEST WEST)...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN
AREAS...NOTING THAT WE ALREADY HAVE HAD THUNDER OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
MODELS SHOW SUB ZERO SHOALWATER INDICES (SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION)...AND LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO EAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BRING IN A SUFFICIENT MARINE LAYER TO PREVENT
DEEP CONVECTION (AS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS INCREASING THE SHOALWATER
INDEX TO ABOVE 0 AND MOST ABOVE 2 THIS AFTERNOON).
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO ALL BUT ORANGE/WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES
ALREADY HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60...SO USED WARMEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY RISE 3-5
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BEFORE ONSET OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...SO IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE
TEMPERATURES PEEKING AROUND MIDDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE QUITE A LARGE NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES
OR LESS...SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS BY THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT...BUT THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT) WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WHILE I INITIALLY PREFER THE NAM WITH STORM TRACK...OVER TIME IT
BECOMES THE SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE STORM TO THE NORTH...AND HAS
BEEN IN THE PAST FEW RUNS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING ITS SOLUTION AND
SHIFTING IT FURTHER WEST. THIS IS STILL TRUE WITH THE 6Z
NAM...WHICH IS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE 0Z NAM AT 0Z
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL LIFTING NORTH...AND
IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS...SO HAVE DISREGARDED IT. THE 0Z
UKMET/ECMWF/3Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE A REASONABLE SOLUTION IN
TERMS OF SPEED (THOUGH THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
2...ALSO FURTHER EAST THAN THE 6Z NAM)...SO FOLLOWED THE 12Z
UKMET/3Z SREF FOR THE LOW TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE LOW TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS/JUST TO THE EAST OF FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW TRACK MADE NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
MAIN CHANGE IS THE SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF QPF TO THE EAST. WHILE
EXACT DETAILS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...THIS RESULTS IN
DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW CROSSES THE AREA...THEN EXPECT A LULL FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW CONSOLIDATES
AND LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
DURING THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE MAINLY PREDOMINATED BY DRIZZLE.
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRAWS NEAR. FOCUS LIKELY POPS TUESDAY
MORNING (IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES) OVER EASTERN
AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PASSES WITH CHANCE POPS EAST...THEN
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/EXACT TRACK OF LOW)...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
EVENING (EXCEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FAR EAST (CLOSEST TO LOW)...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALSO REFLECTING
UNCERTAINTY IN APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
0Z ECMWF/GFS IN REASONABLE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT OVER MEDIUM
RANGE...REFLECTING THE SET UP OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK...THE FORECAST IN GENERAL REFLECTS THIS...SO
COUPLED WITH MORE PRESSING SHORT TERM CONCERNS...MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 12Z...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS INCLUDING JFK AND LGA REPORTING VLIFR IN DENSE FOG. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH 12Z MON...AS SATURATED
LOW/MID LEVELS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH INCREASE OF CIG HGTS TODAY. RAIN
WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. STEADY RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME E THEN NE THIS MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE
FROM 6-12 KT. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT INTO THE 10-15 KT
RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND FCST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. BASICALLY THE GFS IS FASTEST TO MOVE THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND...THEN NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST
OFFSHORE...AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. THIS RESULTS IN
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD FOR THE MODEL WIND FCSTS. MOSTLY WENT CLOSE TO
THE NAM...BUT ADJUSTED DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS SOMEWHAT TO FIT BETTER WITH
THE OTHER MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RESULT IS NE FLOW
DEVELOPING TODAY...THEN INCREASING TONIGHT AND REMAINING RATHER
BRISK ON MON. THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
REACHING 6 TO 9 FT MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO NORTH
ON TUE AS THE LOW PASSES BY...LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. BASED ON THE ABOVE
FCST...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH RUNS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG PERIOD OF BRISK NE FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP IN WESTERN
LONG ISLAND...AS WELL AS IN NY HARBOR AND THE BACK BAYS OF THE LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE. FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND 2.5 TO 3 FOOT DEPARTURES WILL
BE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW THOSE LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND ANY COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
MINOR AT WORST. GREATEST POSSIBILITY FOR ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT
OCCUR WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE MON AFTERNOON AND LATE MON NIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 60 HOURS EASTWARD OVER CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. THIS IS
THE AREA OVER WHICH ALL MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE WILL RECEIVE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. TO THE WEST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 0.75
TO 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AREA. THIS IS MUCH
LESS (BY A FACTOR OF 75 TO 100 PERCENT) THAN CURRENT 12-24 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...SO I HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH THERE (IN
COLLABORATION WITH MT HOLLY). THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER CONNECTICUT
AND LONG ISLAND IS ALSO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...SO THERE WAS NO NEED (IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES) TO PUT THOSE AREAS IN A WATCH.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350-353-355 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
AVIATION/MARINE...CNJ
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...SURFACE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE LIFTING NEWD OFF THE NRN OBX LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A WIDE AREA OF WRAP AROUND RAINFALL
IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS
HAVE INCREASED UP TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AS STRONG CAA HAS
COMMENCED. THE LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRES WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST OF THE
VA CAPES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BECOME CUTOFF ALLOWING
FOR WRAP AROUND RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE
ZONES AND GRIDS TO CAPTURE CURRENT PCPN AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE
TONIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW TRACKED FARTHER
S THAN FCST AND SW WINDS NEVER REACHED GALE FORCE. RUC HAD BEST
HANDLE ON SFC LOW AND WINDS 12-15Z AND LEANED TO IT FOR UPDATE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NOW EXPECT GALES (MAINLY IN GUSTS) TO
SPREAD OVER WATERS FROM S TO N THIS AFTN AS SFC LOW GRADUALLY MOVES
NE AND CAA KICKS IN BEHIND IT. EXTENDED GALES TO ALL WATERS (EXCEPT
SCA FOR SOUNDS) AND IN TIME TO 06Z TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SEAS FOR
CURRENT BUOY OBS OF 6-9 FT...WW3 IS UNDERDONE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
AVIATION...MERRELL
MARINE...MERRELL
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
745 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH
PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MEAN POSITIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH
FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH MAIN JET ENERGY ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE
OF FEATURE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED BAND OF STRATUS (MVFR CIGS) LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF EASTWARD
ADVANCING TROUGH.
.FORECAST DETAILS.(OVERNIGHT)...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS AND RESULTANT
LOW TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC MODEL HAS GOOD HANDLE OF SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. MODEL TAKES SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER CWFA
WITH FEATURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE VALLEY BY 09Z. GOOD DEEP LAYERED
DRY COLUMN WITH SYSTEM POINTS TO SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY EXCEPTION IN THE BJI AREA WHERE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER H2O
ATTM COULD BECOME ENTRENCHED BENEATH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS AGREE WITH DAYCREW THAT WARMEST
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOST ZONES. UPDATED PLANNED
BY MID-EVENING TO ADDRESS RESIDUAL LOW POPS OUT EAST AND JUST OVERALL
COSMETIC CHANGES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
BERG
</PRE></TT></td>   nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN CLEAR SKY AREAS... AND COOLER
IN CLOUDY REGIONS. SUNNY SKIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH CLOUDY SKIES SURROUNDING. CURRENTLY
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALONG HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-OAKES LINE AND
MOVING EAST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOLLOWING THIS
LINE. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
BOUNDARY.
CHALLENGES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER CHANGES AND
CORRESPONDING TEMPERATURES.
RUC IS HANDLING CURRENT CONDITIONS THE BEST... PARTICULARLY THE
SKY COVER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT HOLDING TRUE FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD
COVER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN THAN FOR LATER
HOURS. GFS AND HPC BOTH SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BUT CLEARING CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT
THIS. TOOK OUT AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
STEINBRUCKNER/GODON
</PRE></TT></td>   nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
UPPER LOW ABOUT WHERE IT WAS EXPECTED TO BE BASED ON PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING...OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SAID
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS HUGGING THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS...AND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS BUT MOST OF THE NON-TERRAIN AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR.
MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MOUNTAINS REVEALED A LIGHT SNOW FELL
IN THE VERY LATE HOURS OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH ONE INCH REPORTED FROM BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOUNT
MITCHELL...GRANDFATHER AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN IN
SOUTHEAST BUNCOMBE COUNTY. ALMOST NO SNOW REPORTED FROM THE
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THE SATURATED LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE 85H TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL
SLOW EROSION OF THE ANCHORED CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY BEGUN...BUT
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO...ANY
LINGERING SNOW AT THIS HOUR SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NEITHER RUC NOR 06Z NAM/WRF PRODUCES MUCH MORE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAIN WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH SO FAR; KAVL
JUST HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH. THE BETTER MIXING HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN STRONG GUSTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT; KCLT
RECENTLY GUSTED TO 31 MPH. WITH TIME...THE WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD WANE...AND ANY RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE REPLACED BY WARM ADVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT PLAN ANY
CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY/LAKE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BASED ON CHANGES WE MADE TO THE
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO CARVE OUT
SOME OF TEH LARGER ZONE GROUPINGS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTENSION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES LATER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN STEADILY THIS MORNING...BUT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN LOWER 60S FOR THE
CWFA...AND NORTHEAST CWFA WILL BE IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE
UPPER LOW FOR A WHILE YET. MOUNTAINS MAY SEE MINIMAL MERCURY
CLIMBS TODAY. WILL LOWER MAXES CWFA-WIDE...TO MID/UPPER 50S
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND HOLD ON TO LOWER 60S ONLY FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWFA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 255 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NC MTNS...AND
MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS A PERIOD OF BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LLVL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND THE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER...MARGINALLY COLD...PERHAPS -2C
AT BEST. SO...A MIX OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH PROGRESSIVE
LLVL DRYING SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON PALTRY MAGNITUDE OF
EXPECTED WINTER WX THREAT AND RECENT RECORD WARMTH...LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITHIN THE SUBSIDING AIRMASS TODAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
40-50 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACRS FAVORED AREAS OF THE NC MTNS WITH
CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN SOME DEGREE OF WINDY AND BREEZY
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UP TONIGHT...SO A MIXED AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS
A TOP THE CWFA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU INTRODUCING NEAR
ZONAL FLOW AND MORE WEAK SHORT WAVES FOR TUESDAY. STRONG WAVES DIG
A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
OUR FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...CWFA WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT LOW LEVELS VERY DRY. THE DRY
LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS
STREAMING EASTWARD SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM BRINGS PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME PRECIP
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SIMILAR TO NAM...BUT PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW
MANY DRY MEMBERS. MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR ONE...HAVE
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE
HAVE DECIDED TO SLOW PRECIP WITH ONLY CHC TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH RIDGING ON MONDAY. LOWS
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT A LITTLE LOWER
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CIRRUS. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND CANADIAN SLOWING SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...SO WILL
LEAVE POP AS IS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF FORCING WITH HIGH SHEAR. FORECAST
INSTABILITY QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWFA...BUT THIS FITS THE PATTERN
FOR A FALL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. THAT SAID...STILL TOO EARLY TO
FOR BANDWAGON JUMPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF
WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A DEEP THERMAL TROF WILL SLOWLY
TRANSIT THE CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SCENARIO WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS THE PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH UPVALLEY CLOUDS AT KAVL LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER...PERHAPS UNTIL 12 UTC. OTHERWISE...SOLE CONCERN FOR THE 06
UTC TAF PACKAGE WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL BE SEEN PRETTY
MUCH ALL DAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS ACRS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND TO ABOUT 30 AT KAVL...DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-059-063>066-501-
     503-505-507-509 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-058-062 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ002-003 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
</PRE></TT></td>   sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
LAST SEVERAL STLT IR IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER E OF THE VA CAPES. MEANWHILE...RADAR LOOPS SHOW
ONE MAIN SWIRL OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ON THE BACK-SIDE...AFFECTING
ERN VA AND NERN NC. DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...AS THIS LOW CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN/CUTOFF...THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTIONS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE RESULT IS RAIN
BANDS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND IN AREAL EXTENT...AS DRIER AIR
IS WRAPPING AND BROADENING IN BTWN THE BANDS.
OVERNIGHT...DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK WITH POPS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WRN ZONES...AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT
ABOVE THE LOWER LEVELS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS IN FACT WOULD SUPPORT
MORE DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE LATE...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF
MOISTURE (AND ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY) ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM.
.MARINE FCST...WILL HAVE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BY OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE SRN CSTL
WATERS. COMPLICATING MATTERS CURRENTLY IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE CSTL WATERS TO THE LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CAUSING QUITE A
VARIANCE IN WIND DIRECTION OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL REGION...AS WELL
AS MUCH LIGHTER SPEEDS COMPARED TO AREAS JUST TO THE WEST WHERE
THE GRADIENT REMAINS THE STRONGEST.
.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE FCST
AREA...WITH MANY POCKETS OF 3-4 INCHES...IS CAUSING A RISE IN
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPOMATTOX AND ESPECIALLY THE CHOWAN RIVER
BASINS. THE LATEST GAUGE FORECASTS FROM THE RFC SUGGEST THE LOWER
JAMES AND APPOMATTOX BASINS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE (FEW
SITES IN THE APPOMATTOX BASIN MAY GET CLOSE TO FS)...HOWEVER WILL
BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CHOWAN BASIN...WHERE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 428 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
WL BE RAISING SHORTLIVED WND ADVSRY FOR SE VA BASED ON CONTD
STRENGTHENING OF NNW SFC WNDS AS STM JUST E OF MOUTH OF BAY
INTENSIFIES. XPCTG GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH THESE AREAS THROUGH
00Z/13.
PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 311 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHAT A DIFF A DAY MAKES...BASKED UNDER SNY/WRM CONDS YDA...NOW
SGFNTLY COOLER W/ GSTY NNW WNDS AND WDSPRD RA. NR VERTICALLY STACKED
LO PRES (SFC-ALOFT) WL BE TRACKING THROUGH VA CAPES THIS
EVE...THEN CONT SLOLY E LT TNGT...THEN MR NNE MON/MON NGT (TWD
XTRM SE NEW ENG).
WATCHING LLVL SURGE FM NNW PAST CPL HRS...SPDS NOW GSTY TO 40-50
MPH ACRS PTS OF ERN VA. SFC LO PRES CONTG TO STRENGTHEN...DOWN TO
JUST BLO 1000MB PRES NR MOUTH OF BAY. ADDTNL RA SPIRALING WWD INTO
FA ATTM...WL BE KPG POPS AT 100% ACRS FA THROUGH THE EVE HRS...B4
PCPN GRDLY SHIFTS TO THE CST AFT MDNGT. WL CONT HVY RA MENTION FOR
ERN SXNS OF FA THIS EVE. W/ MR NNE MVMNT XPCTD TO STM MON/MON
NGT...CLDS AND EVEN PCPN WL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT (ESP TWD THE CST).
DRYING/WRMG XPCTD DURG TUE AS STM LIFTS THROUGH XTRM ERN NEW ENG AND
LLVL FLO (HERE) BCMS SSW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PD OF TRANQUIL WX SHORTLIVED TUE NGT THROUGH WED...B4 NEXT SGFNT
AMPLIFICATION OF UPR LVL TROUGH (AND CORRESPONDING SFC LO PRES
DVLPMNT) W OF MTNS BY LT WED/WED NGT. MDLS SUGG THAT NEXT STM WL
BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ONGOING NOW...HWVR...IT IS FCST TO "BOMB"
WNW OF FA...INSTEAD NR THE MDATLC CST. XPCTG A STRNG CDFNT TO PUSH
THROUGH FA THU...W/ AT LEAST SCTD SHRAS (ADDTNL MOD/HVY
RA???)...THEN DRY/COOL WX FRI THROUGH NEXT WKND.
AVIATION...
BREEZY/WINDY THRU THE EVENG (ESP ACRS CSTL ZONES)...HAS BECOME
MAINLY MVFR/VFR ACRS PIEDMNT...TO MAINLY IFR ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESP INLAND BUT CLDS TO CONTINUE OVERNGT.
MARINE...
COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES THIS EVENING...SFC LOW NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER/CURRITUCK SND. SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE BAY
RIGHT NOW. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL GO WITH GALES
TONIGHT THRU 06Z LIKELY TRANSITIONING BACK TO SCAS AFT THAT TNGT.
(SEAS ACTUALLY HIGHER NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO NE FLOW UP THAT WAY).
SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONTINUE IN NW FLOW THRU APPROX NOON MON ALL
AREAS AND LINGERING A BIT LONGER N OF PARRAMORE DUE TO HIGHER
SEAS.
HYDROLOGY...
WDSPRD 1-2" RA HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TDA...ESP INLAND VA/NE NC.
BULK OF HVY RA XPCTD TO OCCUR FM I95 ON E TNGT. RVR STAGES WL
RESPOND TO THIS MOD/HVY RA EVENT...XPCTG NEED FOR FLD WRNGS...ESP
AT MATOACA...FRANKLIN AND PSBLY SEBRELL.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ656-658 UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM UPDATE...HURLEY
</PRE></TT></td>   va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE COMBO WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WESTERN SLOPES WILL
KEEP RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR/MVFR SE WVA SITES TO VFR/OCNL
ELSWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. SPOTTY -RA MAY OCCUR AT LYH/DAN WITH
SPORADIC -RA/-SN BLF BUT OVERALL EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY. HOWEVER GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SITES. SYSTEM EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME DRYING TO
TAKE PLACE ESPCLY EAST WHILE EXPECTING LOWER CEILINGS TO FILL BACK
IN SE WVA WHERE MVFR/IFR LIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. RESIDUAL CLOUDS
SHOULD FINALLY BREAK ON MONDAY ALTHO LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES EARLY WITH WITH LOW LEVEL RH HANGING ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 950 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU EASTERN
NC THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING NEGATIVE TILT PULLING LIGHT/MOD RAIN
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ATTM. EXPECT AS THE SYSTEM WORKS
NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRY AIR SLOWLY CUTOFF -RA ON THE SW SIDE
AS MID LEVEL AXIS OF CONVERGENCE PIVOTS MORE INTO THE NERN ZONES
WHERE WILL KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING. ELSW ABRUPT DROPOFF IN RH
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER NW DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE
BEFORE GETTING BACK INTO MORE UPSLOPISH MOISTURE WESTERN SLOPES.
HOWEVER GIVEN FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BEST MOISTURE OUT WITH
COASTAL LOW APPEARS EVEN UPSLOPE MIX OF PRECIP LIKELY VERY
LIGHT/SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT ESPCLY
LATEST WRF/NMM AND RUC WHICH HAVE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THUS PLAN
TO CUT POPS TO CHANCE WESTERN SLOPES AND GO WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS SO FAR WITH WAVE SLOW TO MOVE NE/DEEPEN AND RATHER
WEAK 85H JET. EXPECT ONCE ITS GETS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MIXING
INCREASES WILL SEE RIDGES PICK UP ALTHO FORECAST PRES RISES NOT
ALL THAT GREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTRW SOME SMALL ADJUSTS TO TEMPS
SINCE APPEARS ONLY SLIGHT RISES AT BEST MOST AREAS THRU THE
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 647 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
AVIATION...
BLF WILL START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE GRADULLY WITH CEILINGS AT BLF BECOMING MVFR BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP VFR
CLOUDS IN OVER LYH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AT ROA AND DAN
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 221 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NC NORTHWARD THRU GRAYSON...CARROL AND FLOYD COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST TO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC AND LIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE
FAR EAST TODAY AND EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST. MOST OF PCPN
WILL BE LIQUID BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST THEN TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING AREA. THE Q-VECTOR FORCING AND DEFORMATION AREA STAY
JUST EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WENT WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WHICH KEEPS THE
PIEDMONT CLOUDY ALL DAY AND COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MORE
SUN IN THE MORNING.
COLD AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MODERATES THE
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL AABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.
SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS
NOT THAT GOOD AND WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR AND VERY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WILL KEEP JUST LIGHT ANOUMTS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRIGINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE NEXT DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE LOW LEVELS WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE GOOD DYNAMICS AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL SUPPORT RAIN SO NO CHANGE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST..EXCEPT WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS A BIT.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
PUSH OF WIND ALOFT GIVEN COLD ADVECTION. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WESTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUD DECK (MVFR/IFR) IN
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...WHILE IN THE EAST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TODAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP
BAND AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF NEARBY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ015>017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ001-002-018 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
JH
</PRE></TT></td>   va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU EASTERN
NC THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING NEGATIVE TILT PULLING LIGHT/MOD RAIN
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ATTM. EXPECT AS THE SYSTEM WORKS
NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRY AIR SLOWLY CUTOFF -RA ON THE SW SIDE
AS MID LEVEL AXIS OF CONVERGENCE PIVOTS MORE INTO THE NERN ZONES
WHERE WILL KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING. ELSW ABRUPT DROPOFF IN RH
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER NW DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE
BEFORE GETTING BACK INTO MORE UPSLOPISH MOISTURE WESTERN SLOPES.
HOWEVER GIVEN FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BEST MOISTURE OUT WITH
COASTAL LOW APPEARS EVEN UPSLOPE MIX OF PRECIP LIKELY VERY
LIGHT/SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT ESPCLY
LATEST WRF/NMM AND RUC WHICH HAVE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THUS PLAN
TO CUT POPS TO CHANCE WESTERN SLOPES AND GO WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS SO FAR WITH WAVE SLOW TO MOVE NE/DEEPEN AND RATHER
WEAK 85H JET. EXPECT ONCE ITS GETS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MIXING
INCREASES WILL SEE RIDGES PICK UP ALTHO FORECAST PRES RISES NOT
ALL THAT GREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTRW SOME SMALL ADJUSTS TO TEMPS
SINCE APPEARS ONLY SLIGHT RISES AT BEST MOST AREAS THRU THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 647 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
AVIATION...
BLF WILL START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE GRADULLY WITH CEILINGS AT BLF BECOMING MVFR BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP VFR
CLOUDS IN OVER LYH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AT ROA AND DAN
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 221 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NC NORTHWARD THRU GRAYSON...CARROL AND FLOYD COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST TO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC AND LIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE
FAR EAST TODAY AND EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST. MOST OF PCPN
WILL BE LIQUID BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST THEN TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING...THEN
START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING AREA. THE Q-VECTOR FORCING AND DEFORMATION AREA STAY
JUST EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WENT WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WHICH KEEPS THE
PIEDMONT CLOUDY ALL DAY AND COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MORE
SUN IN THE MORNING.
COLD AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MODERATES THE
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL AABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.
SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS
NOT THAT GOOD AND WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR AND VERY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WILL KEEP JUST LIGHT ANOUMTS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRIGINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE NEXT DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE LOW LEVELS WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE GOOD DYNAMICS AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL SUPPORT RAIN SO NO CHANGE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST..EXCEPT WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS A BIT.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
PUSH OF WIND ALOFT GIVEN COLD ADVECTION. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WESTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUD DECK (MVFR/IFR) IN
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...WHILE IN THE EAST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TODAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP
BAND AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF NEARBY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ015>017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ001-002-018 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
JH
</PRE></TT></td>   va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHCS WITH APPCH TROF TNT INTO
MONDAY AND THEN HANDLING OF SYS FOR MID WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED APPROACHING
MID/HI CLOUDS AHEAD OF 500 MB WAVE THAT RUC ANALYSIS PLACED IN THE
WRN DAKOTAS AT 20Z. SERLY SFC WINDS AS RIDGE OF HI PRES SHIFTED EAST
BROUGHT REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ONSHORE...KEEPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MI IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
TRENDS FOR ERLY EVENING CLOUD FCST.
COMPETING FACTORS MAKE PCPN CHANCES FOR CWA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON BOTH NAM AND
GFS 290-300K SFCS CROSSES CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH 30-35 KT
LLJ...BUT MOISTURE LAGGING. COND PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100-200 MB
WITH BEST LIFT...THO GFS HAS AN ANOMALOUS SECONDARY BULLSEYE OF NET
ADIABATIC ISENTROPIC OMEGA AT 12Z OVER S CNTRL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
LOWERING PRES DEFICIT GRADIENT.
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER RGN...19Z RUC
PWATS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS OVER SRN WI...WITH RETURN FLOW JUST NOW
LIFTING NWD ALONG SFC TROF AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN PANHANDLE
REGION. 850 MB DEW POINT FCSTS INDICATE NARROW RIBBON OF HIER DEW
POINTS ARE COINCIDENT WITH 850 MB TROF AXIS...BUT BEHIND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER CWA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT BETTER OMEGA ALOFT IS OFFSET BY DOWNWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW BELOW 800MB...PROBABLY FROM CAA AT 850 MB AND
BELOW THAT BEGINS AROUND 06Z MON...WITH WEAK 1000-850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST AT 00Z MON DIMINISHING WITH TIME AFTER 06Z
TO NEAR NOTHING BY 12Z.
NARROW THETA E RIDGE TO PUSH ALONG/AHEAD OF TROF AS IT CROSSES CWA
MONDAY MORNING. WILL TIE WHAT SHOULD BE LIGHT/SCT PCPN TO THIS
AXIS...WHICH ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION ON BUFKIT
SNDGS. TOP DOWN AND BOURGOIUN PCPN TYPE METHODS INDICATE ALL RAIN
FOR CWA.
NEXT CONCERN IS MIDWEEK SYSTEM. SWD TREND NOTED BY PREV FCSTR
CONTINUES WITH SUN 18Z NAM RUN TRACKING SFC LOW DVLPG OVR SRN MO AT
06Z WED...THEN MOVG ALONG OHIO RVR VLY TO FAR S CNTRL OHIO BY 06Z
THUR. 12Z GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK IN SAME TIME
PERIOD...THEN LIFTS IT NWD TO NR WRN LAKE ERIE AND
RETROGRADES/REDEVELOPS NR SAGINAW BAY AS CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEEPENS.
12Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDING WITH OHIO RVR SOLUTION BY 12Z THUR WITH
CLOSED 500 LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS.
WILL HOLD ON TO CHC POPS FOR WED AS WELL AS RAIN OR SNOW FOR TYPE
WITH BETTER CLARITY EXPECTED FOR TRACK/TIMING IN LATER RUNS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
REM
</PRE></TT></td>   wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCE/TYPE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WAS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST
CENTRAL MN. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS PRECIPITATION AS ASSOCIATED
WITH 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH
VIGOROUS WAVE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA.
12Z 12NOV06 MODEL SOLUTIONS HAD EXCELLENT CLUSTERING WITH RESPECT
TO UPPER LEVEL SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT WE
WILL RECEIVE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT. IN FACT...80-100 PERCENT
OF GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTED PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION...NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE SUPPORTED HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SNOW IN NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER AND MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AT MIDWEEK. EVEN THOUGH MODEL DETAILS STILL DIFFER A BIT...THE
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TOWARD A SOLUTION OF A CLOSED
500MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA....WHICH AGREED WITH NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING IN THIS AS A PROBABLE
SOLUTION...WHICH CURRENT DATA BASE ALREADY SUPPORTS.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL WITH REGARD TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. NORTH-SOUTH CROSS SECTION INDICATED A NARROW BUT STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL STEADILY FOR AWHILE...ALTHOUGH
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE HEAVY AMOUNTS PER
MODEL QPF. BECAUSE OF CONSISTENTLY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL...
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO
CATEGORICAL VALUES.
ACCORDING TO NCEP SREF AND BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS...
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE BEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...TAILORED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE DATA BASE ACCORDINGLY...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO RESIDE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB LOW CLOSES OFF. DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH OF FORCING NOTED BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS...WITH GFS
STRONGER WITH REGARD TO DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...
SREF AND BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST COULD BE RAIN
AND/OR SNOW. ONLY CHANGE TO DATA BASE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO TRIM
EASTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS ON CLOSED 500MB LOW ADVANCING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY
MREF ENSEMBLES. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN DETAILS
WITHIN CURRENT DATA BASE...WHICH SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HAD SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. MREF ENSEMBLES
SUPPORTED A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK
AND THUS MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
THOMPSON
</PRE></TT></td>   wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.AVIATION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUING TO
SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN.
GIVEN THE LARGE EXPANSE OF THESE CLOUDS AND BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL EXTEND THE MVFR CLOUDS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. LIMITED
MOISTURE FROM 3K TO 8K FEET SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 843 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
UPDATE...
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 900MB.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL TOO DRY BELOW THIS INVERSION LEVEL BASED ON
THE DTX SOUNDING. IT IS NO SURPRISE THEN THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS
NOT DIMINISHED MUCH SINCE SUNSET. WITH THE FLOW NEAR THE CLOUD BASE
FORECAST BY BOTH RUC AND NAM12 TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
06Z...EXPECT THE STRATUS THAT IS NOW COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAS ALREADY SHOWED THE STRATUS ADVANCING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED PROLONGED CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 30...WILL INCREASE TEMPS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. SLOW EROSION OF
STRATOCU TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AS RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE WARMER
AIRMASS TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR AND
CALM) WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID 20'S.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE IN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND LACK OF IDENTIFIABLE
SURFACE FEATURE WILL KEEP LIFT VERY MINIMAL. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMALS...IN THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LARGE STORM STILL SET FOR MID/LATE THIS WEEK AND ONLY HAVE TO ADJUST
TIMING SLIGHTLY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN LIFTING THE LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL BACK OFF ON WORDING
SLIGHTLY AND FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT &
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED CONTINUITY OF THE MODELS...WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO 60% OR BETTER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM STILL LEADS TO A LARGE INGESTION
OF MILD/MOIST ATLANTIC AIR IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE THE
MAIN EVENT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THE COLD AIR IN THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AND
ALLOWS A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PERHAPS ALL LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...ALLOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASICALLY INTACT.
GENERALLY COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE MILDEST PERIOD
AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY. THEREAFTER...A COOLING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB TO 40 OR BETTER.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHULER
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION/UPDATE...CONSIDINE
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 AM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE RUC/NAM/GFS MODELS
ALL FORECAST THIS AREA TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY...WITH 20-30 POPS
ENDING ACROSS THE WI COUNTIES BY 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED COLDER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST TODAY...TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD YIELD RELATIVELY WARMER READINGS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
NAM/GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE /AND EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW/ THAT DEEPENS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ORIENTED HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH THE
TROUGH...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY DUE TO SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT BACK BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-RUSK COUNTY(IES).
&&
$$
LS
</PRE></TT></td>   mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
225 AM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...
N-S BAND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS MOVG EWD THRU THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG
AHD OF SHRTWV TROF ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED WK CDFNT/SFC
TROF EXTDG FM ERN MN S-SW THRU ERN OK.  LATEST RUC ANLYS DEPICTS
RELATIVELY STG 800-600 MB WAA EXTDG FM SERN IA S-SW THRU N CNTRL AR
AHD OF LOW LVL TROF.  BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS ALSO SHOW UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MRNG AHD OF UPR LVL TROF.  IT
APRS THAT MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD PUSH E OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN AS
THE MID-UPR LVL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA.  THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLRG OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT LOOKING AT
MDL RH PROGS LOW LVL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN AND POSSIBLY INTO TGT.  WK SHRTWVS MOVG FAIRLY RAPIDLY
EWD THRU THE REGION MAY ALSO BRING SOME MID-UPR LVL CLOUDINESS TGT
OVR THE CWA.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WRMR ON TUE WITH S-SWLY
LOW LVL WNDS OVR THE CWA AHD OF DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES.  CLOUD CVR WILL BE INCRSG BY TUE AFTN BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL TUE NGT.  RAIN/SHRA WILL SPREAD EWD THRU MOST OF
THE CWA TUE NGT AHD OF DPNG MID-UPR LVL TROF MOVG EWD THRU THE
PLAINS STATES.  BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS DVLP MID LVL CUTOFF LOW BY 12Z
WED...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE DIFFERING POSITIONS OF MID LVL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.  GFS MDL IS FURTHER S WITH MID LVL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ON WED MOVG IT THRU NRN AR...WHILE THE NAM MDL
HAS IT MOVG EWD THRU SRN MO. ALTHOUGH EITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUE NGT AND WED...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF A LTL FURTHER S AND HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERTURES FOR THE CWA. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
MID LVL AND SFC LOW. WILL INCLUDE RELATIVELY HI POPS FOR TUE NGT
AND WED ESPECIALLY OVR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH MDLS
INDICATE INCRSG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVR THE CWA TUE NGT WITH
APPROACH OF UPR LVL TROF AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF ULJ STREAK ACRS
THE SRN PLAINS. LOOKING AT MID LVL Q CNVG...MID LVL MOISTURE AND
700 MB CVNG WILL LIKELY HAVE DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON WED INTO WED
EVNG ACRS CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA JUST N OF THE TRACK OF
THE DEEP MID LVL CLOSED LOW.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...RWS AND ISOLATED TRWS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
COLDFRONT THAT IS JUST ENTERING MO AS OF 05Z. STILL HAVE VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY BELOW H700...WITH SFC
DEWPTS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EVEN WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN
HAS FALLEN. STILL FEEL THAT LO LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP SOME WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 07Z TIL 13Z FROM W TO E WITH
MAIN FORCING COMING FROM SHORTWAVE ITSELF. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WENT IN THE UPPER RANGE...AROUND 3K FT FOR ALL
TAF SITES. BEGIN TO BREAK UP CIGS A LITTLE FOR KUIN AND KCOU AROUND
22Z AND FOR KSUS AND KSTL AROUND 01Z.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT
OVER FORECAST AREA CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW OR ALL SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TODAYS CLOUD FORECAST IT IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD. STRATUS IS
STILL HANGING TIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
NAM/RUC SHOWING RH DECREASING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY. THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME MIXING OUT...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER THAT TO SOME
DEGREE ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THUS WILL GO WITH BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH.
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW NO ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FIRST
AND FIFTH PERIODS WERE MAV WAS LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
TIPTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
SC DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BENEATH BNDRY LYR INVERSION ATTM. HAVE
ACTUALLY SEEN AN EXPANSION WESTWARD INTO EASTERN INDIANA WITH LO
LVL ERLY FLO HAVING DVLPD. EVEN WITH UPR RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION
CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO NOT KEEP MVFR SC DECK AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NAM INDCG LO LVL FLO
WILL VEER TO SRLY BY DAYBREAK...AND AM STILL THINKING THAT LO LVL
WAA SHOULD HELP TO PROMOTE BNDRY LYR MIXING AND BREAK UP SC DECK
ACRS WESTERN OHIO DURING MRNG HOURS. MID/HI LVL CLOUDS ACRS MID
MISSISSIPPI VLY IN ASSOC WITH S/WV WHICH WILL APPCH REGION BY
TONIGHT. AS SC BREAKS...AC/CI WILL STREAM INTO REGION DURING AFTN
HOURS AND LOWER THIS EVNG AS S/WV MOVES THRU FCST AREA.
RYAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UP SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED BUT BETTER CHANCES
AFTER 12Z WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL AT
AROUND 12Z WED WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN SC. THEN THE IL/IN LOW WILL MOV NE ACROSS OH INTO THE GRT
LKS BY 18Z THU. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF
THE GRT LKS INTO CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A NW FLOW WITH THE MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN...MAINLY EARLY
THU MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE RESTRICTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED.
HIGHS START OUT IN THE 50S WED AND LOWS THU IN THE 40S WITH A
GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
404 AM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON PCPN TRENDS TODAY AND THEN ON MODEL
TENDENCIES FOR MID WEEK SYS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPCH CWA AND PROGGD TO PASS THRU THIS AFTN.
FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF RAIN COMING ACRS CWA LENDS CONFIDENCE TO
BOOSTING UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM GFS MOS. MODEL DERIVED H7 VV ASSOC
W/H7 WAVE IS BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOME COLLAPSE OF H8 TEMPS
AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS BLO 0C AND 540DM THIS MRNG ESP FOR NW
PTN CWA...SO MIXY POTENTIAL SEEMS BEST THERE...THO DEW POINTS AOA
32 POOLING NEAR SFC FEATURE MAY KEEP LOWEST LEVELS LESS THAN
IDEAL FOR MIXY. NAM SOUNDING IS ONLY ONE TO HINT AT SN IN MSN
WHILE RUC AND GFS SHOWS MORE OF A RAIN SOUNDING. BEST INSTABILITY...
EPV...NOTED ACRS ERN CWA ERLY THIS MRNG BUT IS ALSO WITHIN DRIER
AMS. WRF ARW HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON QPF TRENDS AND LINGERS SOME
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS ACRS THE FAR EAST AND MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE SFC/H8 AND MID LEVEL FEATURES HAVE YET TO PASS THEN...SO WILL HAVE
POPS HIGHER IN THE EAST THRU MID AFTN.
EXTENT OF CLRG BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A CONCERN. NGM AND NAM MOS KEEP
US OVC UFN WHILE THE GFS MOS ALSO INDICATES MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT
THRU TUE. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE PESSIMISSTIC SIDE GIVEN LLVL
RH PROGS...LINGERING H8 COOL POOL AND LIGHT WIND REGIME IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SYS. ATTM BACK EDGE WELL DEFINED ACRS CNTRL IA INTO SRN
MN AND MOVG SWIFTLY EWD...THO MORE LOW CLOUDS ACRS NRN MN APPEAR
TO BE HEADING SEWD...SO EXTENT OF CLRG STILL IN QUES. IN FACT SOME
CONCERN TNGT FOR FOG POTENTIAL IF WE WERE TO CLEAR OFF. BL WOULD
BE PLENTY MOIST FROM LGT PCPN AND SFC THRU H8 WINDS PROGGD TO BE
QUITE LGT. WILL BANK ON AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN THE WRN CWA
FOR TNGT ADN INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG THERE.
NEXT CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND THE KEY FEATURES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. STG LOW PROGGD
TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NGT AND THEN SHIFT ENE AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OH VLY/ERN GRT LAKES RGN FOR WED AND THU. THIS TRANSLATES
TO A GLANCING SHOT QPF WISE. H7 RH GRAZES THE SRN AND ERN CWA THO
H8 IS PARCHED. LOOKS LIKE MAIN CONCERN FOR NOW IS WINDS IN ERN CWA
AND OVER THE LAKE. TIGHT GRADIENT ARND THIS SYS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP ACRS ERN CWA AND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF TAKING SYS FURTHER EAST THEN
IMPACT OF WINDS TO BE DIMINISHED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
</PRE></TT></td>   wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
EFFECTED THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS PAST WEEKEND
PULLING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEF UPPER RIDGING HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. FURTHER UPSTREAM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN IN THE
FLOW...WITH ONE SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. EVEN FURTHER BACK...ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE COMING ASHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS ENERGY WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS INTO A STRONG AND
DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY
BECOME OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST.
AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING JUST ABOUT AS DRY AN AIRMASS AS WE GET
AROUND THESE PARTS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP THROUGH 500 MB ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 30-40C WITH 15-20C THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN ABOVE 500MB. THIS IS RESULTING IN A PW VALUE
OF ONLY 0.16" (~18% OF NORMAL).
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AT THIS
TIME. STARTED OFF ON THE COOL SIDE THIS MORNING. COLDEST INTERIOR
SPOTS FELL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S AROUND SUNRISE...WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN
WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN AL/MS...AND SOME OF THIS HIGHER
CLOUD MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT
FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT
TIMES AND HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 FEET...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY BR/HZ INVOF KVLD WILL CAUSE MVFR VSBYS UNTIL MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FCST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AOA FL150 WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM
THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BAY...
GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES FOR EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RH
VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT. A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE LONG DURATION OF RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP
RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE...BUT FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND
CHANCES FOR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WILL BE HIGHER.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CST (12 PM EST) TO 5 PM CST (6 PM
EST) TODAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA BIG BEND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1
PM EST TO 6 PM EST FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO
POTENTIAL LONG DURATIONS OF RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT.
GM...NONE
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1031 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON LOWERING FCST HIGHS
FOR TODAY. SCT-BKN LOW CIGS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE ARE MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LATEST
RUC LOW LEVEL RH DATA KEEPS THESE CLOUDS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...VERY STRONG 925MB INVERSION SEEN IN 14Z ACARS SOUNDINGS AT
SDF WILL HELP MAINTAIN THEM. HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A NUMBER OF BREAKS
IN THE LOW CIGS (W OF SDF AND IN THE BLUEGRASS) IN LATEST
SATELLITE PIX...BUT WILL STILL LOWER FCST HIGHS GIVEN THE SLOW
START WE'VE HAD TODAY.
RECENT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DISSIPATING PCPN CURRENTLY
RUNNING FROM EVV-PAH BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR DISTRICT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR W/NW
ZONES SO WILL ADD THAT TO THE FCST. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY OVER THE
LMK CWA...SO EASTWARD EXTENT OF ANY PCPN IS QUESTIONABLE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN TN AS THEY LIFT OFF TO THE
NE.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM EST.
CS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 737 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006)
UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE LMK CWA AS OF 1230Z. FOLLOWING LATEST RUC...WHICH
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTN...WILL EVALUATE
THAT WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DRIES OUT
PCPN CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL/SE MO BEFORE IT REACHES THE LMK
CWA...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
UPDATED FCST OUT BY 8 AM EST.
CS
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON NOV 13 2006)
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD FCST.
STRATOCU IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT THOUSAND RANGE HAVE CONTD TO SPREAD
WNWRD ACRS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN DESPITE MODEL PROGS
SHOWING OTHERWISE (SIGNIFICANT RH DECREASE BY 06Z). WINDS AT CLOUD
BASE SHUD VEER FROM SE TO SW BY 12UTC...IT APPEARS LO CLOUDS SHUD
LIFT TO OUR N IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH OVC SKIES CONFINED TO OUR NE
SCTNS AFTER SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ATTM WITH OUR
88-D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING ESE WINDS AT 15K.
BKN CI HAS OVERSPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR FA AND
THAT SHUD BE THE DOMINANT CLOUD AT SUNRISE. NETWORK RADARS TO OUR
WEST INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS MO AND WRN IL AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ERN KS CDFNT. THAT TROF PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES ERN IL THIS AFTN WITH MS VLY TROF...JUST IN
ARREARS...MOVG THRU OUR FA EARLY TNGT. GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHOWERS SHOWING DEEPER MSTR ACRS MO ATTM.
CDFNT BECOMES DIFFUSE THIS EVE...REFLECTING WEAKENING UPR LVL
FORCING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN JUST CLOUD DEBRIS
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA DURG THE AFTN AND EVE. BASED ON MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CI WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
FA THIS MRNG...LEAST AMOUNT IN THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY MID CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND SCT-BKN LO CLDS TNGT. SO CURRENT FCST OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE TDA AND PARTLY CLDY CONDS TNGT LOOKS FINE WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIP.
MOS TEMPS TDA/TNGT CLOSE TO ONGOING FCST...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
MAY HAVE TO DO A SUNRISE UPDATE...IF LO CLOUDS DONT LIFT TO THE N AS
EXPECTED.
KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHALLENGES FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM BLEND THRU THE PERIOD TO WASH
OUT SOME OF THE TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE STRONG SFC LOW WEDNESDAY.
THE SREF MEAN ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NAM TRACK...IF
THIS WERE TO VERIFY IT WOULD HAVE SOME POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. LITTLE
ALTERATION TO THE TEMPS GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR
OKC TUESDAY EVENING WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE MAYBE STILL
AROUND THE BWG AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING INTO THE LUNCH HOUR. THE
GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE NAM AND SREF...HAVE
BLENDED AS MENTIONED BEFORE...WITH THE TRACK GOING FROM NEAR MEM TO
JUST NORTH OF CINCY. NAM SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...HAVE ADDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS HERE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LOOKING TO STAY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF A MIX IN P-TYPE LOOKS IN
JEOPARDY AS THE LOW DOESN'T TAP ANY REALLY COLD AIR...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS DON'T GET MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES AND THE H850 TEMPS ONLY DROP
TO -2 OR SO AT THE COLDEST...NOT GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIP.
MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SPC HAS
BROUGHT THE SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
MIDDLE TN...IF THE TRACK BECOMES FURTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE NAM
THEN THIS THREAT AREA COULD BE ADJUSTED TO CONTAIN SOUTHERN KY...THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND INCREDIBLE SHEAR GENERATED BY THE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT
OF THE H500 AND H250 JETS. THE ISSUE WILL BE INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS
HARD TO COME BY...BUT IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK HITS THEN ENOUGH MAY BE
THERE TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS...OR WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THIS SCENARIO IS NOT THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
OVERALL THE PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ONLY HAD THE TREND OF SOME
INCREASED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN THAT A FAIRLY STABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THRU
FRIDAY...THEN THEY START TO VEER FROM EACH OTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK IS FOUND
USING THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE EURO HAS BEEN HAVING
SOME ISSUES DEALING WITH THE TROUGH FROM THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC PATTERN AS A WHOLE...THOUGH UNUSUALLY STRONG
AGREEMENT FOUND IN THE PACIFIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL BE USING A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EURO INTO FRIDAY...THEN MOVING WHOLLY
TOWARDS THE VERY STABLE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE CLOSED LOW INTO QUEBEC BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THEN TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY...CLOUDS LOOK TO
FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HI BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS STATES. WARP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...ENDING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOL AREA
OF CANADIAN HI PRESSURE STARTS TO DRIFT SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THE OPER
GFS SHOWS PRECIP HAVE NOT MENTIONED AS THE ENS MEAN SHOWS THE POPS
WELL LESS THAN CLIMO. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY MONDAY. AGAIN THE GFS HINTING AT SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES WORKING SOUTH...COVERAGE WOULD BE REMARKABLY
SMALL...AND MORE LIKELY ACROSS E KY AND ENS POPS ARE AGAIN MUCH
LOWER THAN CLIMO...WILL LEAVE DRY SUNDAY IN THE EAST AS WELL. SUNNY
SKIES LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY LOOK TO BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MORNINGS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND ENS GFS LATER
IN THE PERIOD FOR THE CONSISTENCY IT HAS SHOWN THERE...BUT ALSO IT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG PAC JET COMING ONSHORE LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THUS CREATING THE FLATTER SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
DEEP TROUGH SEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO THE ATLC BY TUESDAY. TRAVEL
AROUND TURKEY DAY EVE STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND TEMPS LOOK TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING.
SCHOTT
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK THAT COVERS
EASTERN KY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN
LETCHER...HARLAN...AND BELL COUNTY EXTENDING ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THIS
IS ALSO VERIFIED WITH WEB CAM ON MOUNTAINS NEAR MIDDLESBORO.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET...AND BASED ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND OBSERVATIONS NOTED ABOVE...THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY ABOUT
1000 FEET THICK. WITH VERY STRONG INVERSION PRESENT AND FORECAST TO
PERSIST THE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK UP...EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE SHALLOW IN DEPTH. THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUC DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE AT 925 MB...BUT NAM LOOKS BEST AND INDICATES
LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE PATTERN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
ALREADY LOWERD MAX TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE. THE 12Z MET AND FWC FORECAST
MOS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TOO HIGH. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A FEW MORE DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
559 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
PERSISTENT STRATOCU HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR SW COUNTIES AND HANGS ON OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. SME AND
EKQ HAVE GONE CLEAR...WHILE 1A6 DID FOR A TIME...BUT SC ADVECTED
BACK TO THE WEST ON THE E TO ESE FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CLEARING
IS NEAR LOZ...BUT CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED BACK TO THE WEST THERE. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATOCU IN NE TN ALSO SEEMS TO
BE ADVANCING TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU IS ABOUT
25 MILES WEST OF I 65. HOWEVER...HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
WORKING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IN ADVANCE
OF A SW/V TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC TROUGH. THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE SYSTEM WORKING ONTO THE
WEST COAST ATTM.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE EROSION OF
THE STRATOCU TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NOVEMBER SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO HELP ERODE THESE CLOUDS
AWAY TODAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WORKING IN.
THE CLEARING IN THE SW COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IS PROMISING AND IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SOME GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THOUGH FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS AND SOME OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING OF THE SC MAY NOT REACH THE FAR
EASTERN AND NE COUNTIES UNTIL THE 18 TO 21Z TIME FRAME. THE SC
COMBINED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE SC.
OPTED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER FWC/MAV
NUMBERS.
WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH SW/V RIDGING WORKING INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A SMALL
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT APPEARS IN STORE WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL INTO THE LOWER
30S...WITH RIDGETOPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
OVERALL THAN TODAY...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REALLY TAKE
SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SW/V THAT
SHOULD ENTER THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE EASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL SW/V AND
HELP CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC LOW SHOULD REORGANIZE OVER THE OK/AR
AREA AND THEN TRACK NE TO OZARKS/SW MO AREA BY 12Z ON WED.
PRECIPITATION ON ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TN AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THREATEN AREAS TO THE WEST OF I 75 BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD REACH THE NE COUNTIES BY WED
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE REGION. GFS/NAM AND
13/21Z SREF ARE CONSISTANT IN BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THEN WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS HIGHER...INTO THE CAT RANGE ON WED AND WED
NIGHT. 0Z MET WAS INTO THE CAT RANGE FOR WED...WITH THE 6Z MAV NOW
CAT ON WED. 12 HOUR MEX POPS FOR WED NIGHT WERE CAT AS WELL.
OVERALL...QPF FOR THE EVENT SHOULD BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.80"
RANGE...BRINGING BENEFITIAL RAIN AND HELPING TO KEEP FOREST FUELS
MOIST.
EXTENDED...OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OPTED TO RAISE POPS IN THE N ON THU (AREA
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER TO THE LIKELY RANGE
FOR THU. OTHERWISE...INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THU
NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN LINE AS GFS/ECMWF
FORECAST SUB 0C 8H TEMPS.
911 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY NOSED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN A JUGGERNAUT AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A VERY POTENT INVERSION BETWEEN 925
AND 850 MB. IN FACT...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE DECK TO THE WEST. UPPER AIR CHARTS
AND VAD WIND PROFILES CONFIRM THE NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED TO HOLD TRUE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG...INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 30S
TONIGHT AND INCLUDE SOME LOWER RANGED NUMBERS FOR TOMORROWS
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...WHERE A CLEAR START IS UNLIKELY.
UPDATE OUT BEFORE TOO LONG.
524 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SATELLITE TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY IN THE EVENING. WILL REASSESS CLEARING AND FOG POTENTIAL
AS WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
131 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT...HENCE TEMPS NEVER REACHED EXPECTED
VALUES. SOME EVIDENCE OF THINNING WITH CLEARING WEST OF I65 AND A FEW
BREAKS IN OUR ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. EXPECT THE BREAKS TO BECOME MORE
EVIDENT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL HAVE A
SLOW START TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE RAISED NUMBERS TO AROUND 30
MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWER VALUES IN OUR SW WHERE CLEARING WILL BE
EARLIER. PARTLY CLOUDY ON MON WITH COLD CU SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AND WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S/SW FOR
TUE...LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 60.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO OH VLY FOR THE NEAR TERM
AND NEXT TROF TO FORM ON THE LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES THEN MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS ON TUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE FOR TUE AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER. PCPN SHOULD APPEAR ON
THE HORIZON TUE NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW
COUNTIES WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE PCPN AND THOUGH GFS IS A TAD FASTER
THAN NAM BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PCPN TO AFFECT
THE AREA...ESP SCNTRL KY...BY DAWN ON WED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RELAXING SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON DETAILS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LEVEL WANES FROM FRIDAY ON.
AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS. DYNAMICS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE POSITION OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BRINGS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NOT
BUDGING MUCH FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SURFACE RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THIS AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SBH
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE LMK CWA AS OF 1230Z. FOLLOWING LATEST RUC...WHICH
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTN...WILL EVALUATE
THAT WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DRIES OUT
PCPN CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL/SE MO BEFORE IT REACHES THE LMK
CWA...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
UPDATED FCST OUT BY 8 AM EST.
CS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON NOV 13 2006)
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD FCST.
STRATOCU IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT THOUSAND RANGE HAVE CONTD TO SPREAD
WNWRD ACRS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN DESPITE MODEL PROGS
SHOWING OTHERWISE (SIGNIFICANT RH DECREASE BY 06Z). WINDS AT CLOUD
BASE SHUD VEER FROM SE TO SW BY 12UTC...IT APPEARS LO CLOUDS SHUD
LIFT TO OUR N IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH OVC SKIES CONFINED TO OUR NE
SCTNS AFTER SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ATTM WITH OUR
88-D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING ESE WINDS AT 15K.
BKN CI HAS OVERSPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR FA AND
THAT SHUD BE THE DOMINANT CLOUD AT SUNRISE. NETWORK RADARS TO OUR
WEST INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS MO AND WRN IL AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ERN KS CDFNT. THAT TROF PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES ERN IL THIS AFTN WITH MS VLY TROF...JUST IN
ARREARS...MOVG THRU OUR FA EARLY TNGT. GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHOWERS SHOWING DEEPER MSTR ACRS MO ATTM.
CDFNT BECOMES DIFFUSE THIS EVE...REFLECTING WEAKENING UPR LVL
FORCING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN JUST CLOUD DEBRIS
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA DURG THE AFTN AND EVE. BASED ON MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CI WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
FA THIS MRNG...LEAST AMOUNT IN THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY MID CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND SCT-BKN LO CLDS TNGT. SO CURRENT FCST OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE TDA AND PARTLY CLDY CONDS TNGT LOOKS FINE WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIP.
MOS TEMPS TDA/TNGT CLOSE TO ONGOING FCST...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
MAY HAVE TO DO A SUNRISE UPDATE...IF LO CLOUDS DONT LIFT TO THE N AS
EXPECTED.
KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHALLENGES FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM BLEND THRU THE PERIOD TO WASH
OUT SOME OF THE TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE STRONG SFC LOW WEDNESDAY.
THE SREF MEAN ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NAM TRACK...IF
THIS WERE TO VERIFY IT WOULD HAVE SOME POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. LITTLE
ALTERATION TO THE TEMPS GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR
OKC TUESDAY EVENING WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE MAYBE STILL
AROUND THE BWG AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING INTO THE LUNCH HOUR. THE
GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE NAM AND SREF...HAVE
BLENDED AS MENTIONED BEFORE...WITH THE TRACK GOING FROM NEAR MEM TO
JUST NORTH OF CINCY. NAM SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...HAVE ADDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS HERE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LOOKING TO STAY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF A MIX IN P-TYPE LOOKS IN
JEOPARDY AS THE LOW DOESN'T TAP ANY REALLY COLD AIR...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS DON'T GET MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES AND THE H850 TEMPS ONLY DROP
TO -2 OR SO AT THE COLDEST...NOT GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIP.
MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SPC HAS
BROUGHT THE SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
MIDDLE TN...IF THE TRACK BECOMES FURTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE NAM
THEN THIS THREAT AREA COULD BE ADJUSTED TO CONTAIN SOUTHERN KY...THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND INCREDIBLE SHEAR GENERATED BY THE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT
OF THE H500 AND H250 JETS. THE ISSUE WILL BE INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS
HARD TO COME BY...BUT IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK HITS THEN ENOUGH MAY BE
THERE TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS...OR WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THIS SCENARIO IS NOT THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
OVERALL THE PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ONLY HAD THE TREND OF SOME
INCREASED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN THAT A FAIRLY STABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THRU
FRIDAY...THEN THEY START TO VEER FROM EACH OTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK IS FOUND
USING THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE EURO HAS BEEN HAVING
SOME ISSUES DEALING WITH THE TROUGH FROM THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC PATTERN AS A WHOLE...THOUGH UNUSUALLY STRONG
AGREEMENT FOUND IN THE PACIFIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL BE USING A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EURO INTO FRIDAY...THEN MOVING WHOLLY
TOWARDS THE VERY STABLE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE CLOSED LOW INTO QUEBEC BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THEN TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY...CLOUDS LOOK TO
FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HI BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS STATES. WARP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...ENDING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOL AREA
OF CANADIAN HI PRESSURE STARTS TO DRIFT SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THE OPER
GFS SHOWS PRECIP HAVE NOT MENTIONED AS THE ENS MEAN SHOWS THE POPS
WELL LESS THAN CLIMO. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY MONDAY. AGAIN THE GFS HINTING AT SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES WORKING SOUTH...COVERAGE WOULD BE REMARKABLY
SMALL...AND MORE LIKELY ACROSS E KY AND ENS POPS ARE AGAIN MUCH
LOWER THAN CLIMO...WILL LEAVE DRY SUNDAY IN THE EAST AS WELL. SUNNY
SKIES LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY LOOK TO BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MORNINGS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND ENS GFS LATER
IN THE PERIOD FOR THE CONSISTENCY IT HAS SHOWN THERE...BUT ALSO IT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG PAC JET COMING ONSHORE LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THUS CREATING THE FLATTER SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
DEEP TROUGH SEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO THE ATLC BY TUESDAY. TRAVEL
AROUND TURKEY DAY EVE STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND TEMPS LOOK TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING.
SCHOTT
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST MON NOV 13 2006
FXUS63 KMPX 130903
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 AM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE RUC/NAM/GFS MODELS
ALL FORECAST THIS AREA TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY...WITH 20-30 POPS
ENDING ACROSS THE WI COUNTIES BY 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED COLDER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST TODAY...TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD YIELD RELATIVELY WARMER READINGS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
NAM/GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE /AND EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW/ THAT DEEPENS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ORIENTED HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH THE
TROUGH...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY DUE TO SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT BACK BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
LS
</PRE></TT></td>   mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION. BACK
EDGE OF ST IS ON THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM. EVEN IF INVERSION DOES
BREAK THERE IS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING OVER. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT IN IL IS WORKING E QUICKLY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...LOWERED TEMPS FOR TODAY A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NW WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW THE CURVE.
SITES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
06Z NAM/GFS SOLNS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT LOCATION OF SC DECK A
LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN PREV RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD FCST REMAINS LOW. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY YET AGAIN TODAY AS LO LVL FLO REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALL DAY AHEAD OF APPCHG WEAK FRNTL BNDRY. EASTERLY
FLO IN BNDRY LYR BEGINNING TO SLACK AND VEER TO SRLY...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SC DECK HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED WEST ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
INDIANA/KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING INVERSION STRONGER THAN
PREV THOUGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH BNDRY LYR MIXING. KCVG/KLUK PROBABLY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK OUT OF MVFR CIGS BY MID/LATE
AFTN...BEING REPLACED BY EXTENSIVE AC DECK AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVNG
HOURS.
BNDRY APPEARS TO WASH OUT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LO LVL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO EITHER
REESTABLISH OR REINFORCE SC DECK INTO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
RYAN
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 301 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT
OVER FORECAST AREA CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW OR ALL SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TODAYS CLOUD FORECAST IT IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD. STRATUS IS
STILL HANGING TIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
NAM/RUC SHOWING RH DECREASING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY. THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME MIXING OUT...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER THAT TO SOME
DEGREE ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THUS WILL GO WITH BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH.
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW NO ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FIRST
AND FIFTH PERIODS WERE MAV WAS LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
TIPTON
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UP SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED BUT BETTER CHANCES
AFTER 12Z WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL AT
AROUND 12Z WED WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN SC. THEN THE IL/IN LOW WILL MOV NE ACROSS OH INTO THE GRT
LKS BY 18Z THU. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF
THE GRT LKS INTO CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A NW FLOW WITH THE MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN...MAINLY EARLY
THU MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE RESTRICTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED.
HIGHS START OUT IN THE 50S WED AND LOWS THU IN THE 40S WITH A
GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
06Z NAM/GFS SOLNS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT LOCATION OF SC DECK A
LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN PREV RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD FCST REMAINS LOW. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY YET AGAIN TODAY AS LO LVL FLO REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALL DAY AHEAD OF APPCHG WEAK FRNTL BNDRY. EASTERLY
FLO IN BNDRY LYR BEGINNING TO SLACK AND VEER TO SRLY...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SC DECK HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED WEST ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
INDIANA/KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING INVERSION STRONGER THAN
PREV THOUGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH BNDRY LYR MIXING. KCVG/KLUK PROBABLY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK OUT OF MVFR CIGS BY MID/LATE
AFTN...BEING REPLACED BY EXTENSIVE AC DECK AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVNG
HOURS.
BNDRY APPEARS TO WASH OUT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LO LVL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO EITHER
REESTABLISH OR REINFORCE SC DECK INTO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
RYAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 301 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT
OVER FORECAST AREA CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW OR ALL SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TODAYS CLOUD FORECAST IT IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD. STRATUS IS
STILL HANGING TIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
NAM/RUC SHOWING RH DECREASING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY. THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME MIXING OUT...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER THAT TO SOME
DEGREE ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THUS WILL GO WITH BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH.
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW NO ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FIRST
AND FIFTH PERIODS WERE MAV WAS LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
TIPTON
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UP SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED BUT BETTER CHANCES
AFTER 12Z WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL AT
AROUND 12Z WED WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN SC. THEN THE IL/IN LOW WILL MOV NE ACROSS OH INTO THE GRT
LKS BY 18Z THU. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF
THE GRT LKS INTO CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A NW FLOW WITH THE MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN...MAINLY EARLY
THU MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE RESTRICTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED.
HIGHS START OUT IN THE 50S WED AND LOWS THU IN THE 40S WITH A
GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT AFFECTED THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS PAST
WEEKEND PULLING WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO HEAD OFF TO THE
EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN IN THE
FLOW...WITH ONE SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. EVEN FURTHER BACK...ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE COMING ASHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS ENERGY WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS INTO A STRONG AND
DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THEN LIKELY BECOME OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST.
AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS FAR DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY QPF
SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
HOWEVER JUST ENOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF 500-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 300-200MB
DIFFLUENCE TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. REALLY THE ONLY IMPACT OF THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM LOWS LAST
NIGHT.
ANOTHER VERY WEAK ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MOST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
OVER OUR AL/GA ZONES. REGARDLESS...WILL BE GOING WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL ZONES.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO REALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENERGY CLOSING OFF NEAR
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL EJECT EASTWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE DEEPENING RAPIDLY. DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME...OUR AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY
TO SEE A STRONG COLD-FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX.
LIKELY TO SEE AN ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL MAKE PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TOWARD OUR
WESTERN FL/AL ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE FINER DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION. NAM/GFS BOTH
AGREE ON BRING THE COLD-FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTO OUR AL/PANHANDLE
ZONES LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
CROSSING OUR GA/BIG BEND COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING AND FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SPC
HAS OUTLINED OUR AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK DURING THIS TIME.
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT GUIDANCE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
UNI-DIRECTION 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA...INCLUDING A NEAR 50 KNOT 850MB JET. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS ALSO SEEN WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
COLD-FRONT SHOULD THEN BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY WITH CLEARING MORE LIKELY WAITING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY AND SETTLES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEN A RE-ENFORCING AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY USHERING IN WHAT COULD BE OUR COLDEST AIRMASS THIS FALL
SEASON. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF
OUR AL AND GA ZONES AND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS BOTH THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
FALLING TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WATERS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...AT OR ABOVE 12 KFT...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING LATER TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY WEST
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT...BUT EARLY MORNING FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR TOMORROW... EXPECTING CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 25 KFT AND WINDS AROUND 5
KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE LOCAL AREA BRINGING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOUR HOUR DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  39  74  50  77 /   0   0  10  50
PANAMA CITY  48  73  58  76 /   0   0  10  70
DOTHAN       42  72  53  73 /   0   0  20  80
ALBANY       39  72  49  75 /   0   0  10  60
VALDOSTA     40  74  48  77 /   0   0  10  30
CROSS CITY   40  75  49  78 /   0   0  10  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY FROM 1 PM EST TO 5 PM EST FOR
JACKSON...GADSDEN...LEON...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR... LAFAYETTE
AND DIXIE COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
.GM...NONE
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...BARRY
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
BAND OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE LMK CWA ATTM...ASSOC
WITH APPROACHING 500MB SHORTWAVE TROF. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY
ATTM THEREFORE ANY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
BUT WILL INCLUDE ISLTD -SHRA THROUGH LATE AFTN...AND A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES INTO THE EVE HOURS.
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO EXIT ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
6Z...PER LATEST NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO SRN IND OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE CLR AFTER 6Z WHICH WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A FOG SETUP. NAM IS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE DISTRICT...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE THE FOG THREAT. LATEST RUC IS PAINTING WIDESPREAD M1/4SM
VSBYS BY 9Z/TUE...AND MOS DOES SHOW A COMBINATION OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE FCST FOR NOW...I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS. BASED ON CURRENT T-TD SPREADS...FEEL THE
WRN CWA WOULD HAVE HIGHEST RISK OF DENSE FOG GIVEN THAT IT'S BEEN
CLOUDY THERE MOST OF TODAY. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL
THREAT.
INTO TUESDAY...IF WE DO END UP WITH WIDESPREAD FOG THEN IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL MID-MORNING TO CLEAR...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES IN ERNEST. SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION TOMORROW...THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERMAL TROF
AXIS FCST TO BE OVER THE REGION THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN 1 STD DEV OF NORMAL. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS FOR
HIGHS TOMORROW...YIELDING LOW 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
CS
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHALLENGES
REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/AMOUNT WITH MID-WEEK SYSTEM...AND
RESULTING TEMPS.
TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. GFS/NAM
AND SREF INDICATE THAT A LEE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER JET
DIGS OUT THIS SYSTEM. THIS BECOMES A NEAR 990MB SFC LOW BY WED MORN
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AR/MO STATE LINE. NAM TAKES A MORE NORTHERN ROUTE
AND THUS INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT. GFS TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE...AND SURFACE
AND ELEVATED LI'S REFLECT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS MODEL.
WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN...COULD SEE RAIN AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY MORE THAN LIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY
HAVE ISLD T-STORM WORDING AS NAM TENDS TO OVERDUE INSTABILITY...AND
THE FACT THAT THE EURO ALSO SHOWS THE MORE SOUTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK.
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...AND HAVE
CATEGORICAL FOR WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...BUT WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS QUITE YET IN THE HWO SINCE IT MAY BE MORE OF A
STEADY RAINFALL EVENT.
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES INTO OHIO. IT APPEARS THAT BL TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...BUT IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN FOR SURE. ANY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE ON OUTTA HERE BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
ACTUALLY TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY WEEK FOR THE MOST PART.
WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...SIMILAR TO
WHAT PREVIOUS FORECASTER ALREADY HAD.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...
ONLY MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD AND ADDED IN SLT CHC POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
AFTER A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON SATURDAY...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM FLOW WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE STRONG
RETURN FLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE COULD GENERATE ISLD
SHOWERS DESPITE DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...THESE COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. PBL TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS TO YIELD RAIN...BUT
THICKNESSES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME
COULD BE A MIX OR EVEN JUST SNOW SHOWERS. THIS FAR OUT...ONLY
INSERTED A SLT CHC...BUT WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE MIX DURING THE
COLDEST TIMES SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF SNOW
OCCURRED...WOULD NOT ACCUMULATE AT ALL.
BEHIND THIS...THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM-UP AS RIDGING
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. COULD SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY
THANKSGIVING IF THE TREND STAYS THE SAME.
AL
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB TROF IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST FROM
WESTERN KY. AT CURRENT MOVEMENT...CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PART OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z GFS. EXPECT THIS TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 08Z. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PART OF FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS
OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY..WITH MAIN AFFECT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS
NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEEPENING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST THEN CUT OFF 5H LOW INTO MID MS
VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM-WRF WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING 5340 500 MB LOW INTO FAR WEST KY BY
00Z THURSDAY...AND WRF SHOWING A 5370 500 MB LOW OVER FAR WEST TN AT
SAME TIME. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW OF 989 TO
990 MB BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH WRF FURTHER NORTH IN AGREEMEENT WITH
IT/S FORECAST UPPER AIR PATTERN. WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES...AND
BOTH MAV MOS AND MET MOS PAINTING 90 TO 100 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE UPPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS AND LIFT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
CLEARING EARLY AND AGAIN AFTER 07Z FOR A 5 DEGREE SPLIT TO DEVELOP.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY MOS GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFACNT DIFFERENCES IN
MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY HAVE FOLLOWED COOLER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN MAV
MOS WITH GOOD CAA SETTING UP BY 06Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEEP CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
CHILLY AND RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW WORKS BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. WHILE H850 TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S
END...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DON/T SUPPORT SNOWFALL. THE CHILLY
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY.
SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
1019 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY IS THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK THAT COVERS
EASTERN KY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN
LETCHER...HARLAN...AND BELL COUNTY EXTENDING ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THIS
IS ALSO VERIFIED WITH WEB CAM ON MOUNTAINS NEAR MIDDLESBORO.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET...AND BASED ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND OBSERVATIONS NOTED ABOVE...THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY ABOUT
1000 FEET THICK. WITH VERY STRONG INVERSION PRESENT AND FORECAST TO
PERSIST THE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK UP...EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE SHALLOW IN DEPTH. THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUC DO NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE AT 925 MB...BUT NAM LOOKS BEST AND INDICATES
LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE PATTERN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
ALREADY LOWERD MAX TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE. THE 12Z MET AND FWC FORECAST
MOS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TOO HIGH. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST A FEW MORE DEGREES.
559 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
PERSISTENT STRATOCU HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR SW COUNTIES AND HANGS ON OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. SME AND
EKQ HAVE GONE CLEAR...WHILE 1A6 DID FOR A TIME...BUT SC ADVECTED
BACK TO THE WEST ON THE E TO ESE FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CLEARING
IS NEAR LOZ...BUT CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED BACK TO THE WEST THERE. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATOCU IN NE TN ALSO SEEMS TO
BE ADVANCING TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU IS ABOUT
25 MILES WEST OF I 65. HOWEVER...HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
WORKING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IN ADVANCE
OF A SW/V TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC TROUGH. THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE SYSTEM WORKING ONTO THE
WEST COAST ATTM.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE EROSION OF
THE STRATOCU TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NOVEMBER SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO HELP ERODE THESE CLOUDS
AWAY TODAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WORKING IN.
THE CLEARING IN THE SW COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IS PROMISING AND IN
GENERAL...EXPECT SOME GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THOUGH FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS AND SOME OCCASIONAL AC SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING OF THE SC MAY NOT REACH THE FAR
EASTERN AND NE COUNTIES UNTIL THE 18 TO 21Z TIME FRAME. THE SC
COMBINED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE SC.
OPTED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER FWC/MAV
NUMBERS.
WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH SW/V RIDGING WORKING INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A SMALL
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT APPEARS IN STORE WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL INTO THE LOWER
30S...WITH RIDGETOPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
OVERALL THAN TODAY...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REALLY TAKE
SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SW/V THAT
SHOULD ENTER THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE EASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL SW/V AND
HELP CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC LOW SHOULD REORGANIZE OVER THE OK/AR
AREA AND THEN TRACK NE TO OZARKS/SW MO AREA BY 12Z ON WED.
PRECIPITATION ON ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TN AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THREATEN AREAS TO THE WEST OF I 75 BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD REACH THE NE COUNTIES BY WED
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE REGION. GFS/NAM AND
13/21Z SREF ARE CONSISTANT IN BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THEN WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS HIGHER...INTO THE CAT RANGE ON WED AND WED
NIGHT. 0Z MET WAS INTO THE CAT RANGE FOR WED...WITH THE 6Z MAV NOW
CAT ON WED. 12 HOUR MEX POPS FOR WED NIGHT WERE CAT AS WELL.
OVERALL...QPF FOR THE EVENT SHOULD BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.80"
RANGE...BRINGING BENEFITIAL RAIN AND HELPING TO KEEP FOREST FUELS
MOIST.
EXTENDED...OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OPTED TO RAISE POPS IN THE N ON THU (AREA
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER TO THE LIKELY RANGE
FOR THU. OTHERWISE...INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THU
NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN LINE AS GFS/ECMWF
FORECAST SUB 0C 8H TEMPS.
911 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY NOSED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN A JUGGERNAUT AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A VERY POTENT INVERSION BETWEEN 925
AND 850 MB. IN FACT...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE DECK TO THE WEST. UPPER AIR CHARTS
AND VAD WIND PROFILES CONFIRM THE NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED TO HOLD TRUE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG...INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 30S
TONIGHT AND INCLUDE SOME LOWER RANGED NUMBERS FOR TOMORROWS
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...WHERE A CLEAR START IS UNLIKELY.
UPDATE OUT BEFORE TOO LONG.
524 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006
SATELLITE TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY IN THE EVENING. WILL REASSESS CLEARING AND FOG POTENTIAL
AS WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SBH/ABE
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AREA HAS DEVELOPED MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED FROM LEX
DOWN INTO SRN KY. HOWEVER AM EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST...THEREFORE HAVE AMENDED ONLY THE GRIDDED FORECAST
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
CS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1031 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006)
UPDATE...
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON LOWERING FCST HIGHS
FOR TODAY. SCT-BKN LOW CIGS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE ARE MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LATEST
RUC LOW LEVEL RH DATA KEEPS THESE CLOUDS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...VERY STRONG 925MB INVERSION SEEN IN 14Z ACARS SOUNDINGS AT
SDF WILL HELP MAINTAIN THEM. HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A NUMBER OF BREAKS
IN THE LOW CIGS (W OF SDF AND IN THE BLUEGRASS) IN LATEST
SATELLITE PIX...BUT WILL STILL LOWER FCST HIGHS GIVEN THE SLOW
START WE'VE HAD TODAY.
RECENT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DISSIPATING PCPN CURRENTLY
RUNNING FROM EVV-PAH BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR DISTRICT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR W/NW
ZONES SO WILL ADD THAT TO THE FCST. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY OVER THE
LMK CWA...SO EASTWARD EXTENT OF ANY PCPN IS QUESTIONABLE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SHRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN TN AS THEY LIFT OFF TO THE
NE.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM EST.
CS
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 737 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006)
UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE LMK CWA AS OF 1230Z. FOLLOWING LATEST RUC...WHICH
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTN...WILL EVALUATE
THAT WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DRIES OUT
PCPN CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL/SE MO BEFORE IT REACHES THE LMK
CWA...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
UPDATED FCST OUT BY 8 AM EST.
CS
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON NOV 13 2006)
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD FCST.
STRATOCU IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT THOUSAND RANGE HAVE CONTD TO SPREAD
WNWRD ACRS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN DESPITE MODEL PROGS
SHOWING OTHERWISE (SIGNIFICANT RH DECREASE BY 06Z). WINDS AT CLOUD
BASE SHUD VEER FROM SE TO SW BY 12UTC...IT APPEARS LO CLOUDS SHUD
LIFT TO OUR N IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH OVC SKIES CONFINED TO OUR NE
SCTNS AFTER SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ATTM WITH OUR
88-D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING ESE WINDS AT 15K.
BKN CI HAS OVERSPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR FA AND
THAT SHUD BE THE DOMINANT CLOUD AT SUNRISE. NETWORK RADARS TO OUR
WEST INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS MO AND WRN IL AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ERN KS CDFNT. THAT TROF PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES ERN IL THIS AFTN WITH MS VLY TROF...JUST IN
ARREARS...MOVG THRU OUR FA EARLY TNGT. GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHOWERS SHOWING DEEPER MSTR ACRS MO ATTM.
CDFNT BECOMES DIFFUSE THIS EVE...REFLECTING WEAKENING UPR LVL
FORCING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN JUST CLOUD DEBRIS
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA DURG THE AFTN AND EVE. BASED ON MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS CI WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
FA THIS MRNG...LEAST AMOUNT IN THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY MID CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND SCT-BKN LO CLDS TNGT. SO CURRENT FCST OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE TDA AND PARTLY CLDY CONDS TNGT LOOKS FINE WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIP.
MOS TEMPS TDA/TNGT CLOSE TO ONGOING FCST...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY.
MAY HAVE TO DO A SUNRISE UPDATE...IF LO CLOUDS DONT LIFT TO THE N AS
EXPECTED.
KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHALLENGES FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM BLEND THRU THE PERIOD TO WASH
OUT SOME OF THE TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE STRONG SFC LOW WEDNESDAY.
THE SREF MEAN ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NAM TRACK...IF
THIS WERE TO VERIFY IT WOULD HAVE SOME POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK. LITTLE
ALTERATION TO THE TEMPS GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR
OKC TUESDAY EVENING WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE MAYBE STILL
AROUND THE BWG AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIP LOOKS TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING INTO THE LUNCH HOUR. THE
GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE NAM AND SREF...HAVE
BLENDED AS MENTIONED BEFORE...WITH THE TRACK GOING FROM NEAR MEM TO
JUST NORTH OF CINCY. NAM SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...HAVE ADDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS HERE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LOOKING TO STAY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF A MIX IN P-TYPE LOOKS IN
JEOPARDY AS THE LOW DOESN'T TAP ANY REALLY COLD AIR...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS DON'T GET MUCH BELOW 40 DEGREES AND THE H850 TEMPS ONLY DROP
TO -2 OR SO AT THE COLDEST...NOT GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FROZEN PRECIP.
MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SPC HAS
BROUGHT THE SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
MIDDLE TN...IF THE TRACK BECOMES FURTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE NAM
THEN THIS THREAT AREA COULD BE ADJUSTED TO CONTAIN SOUTHERN KY...THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND INCREDIBLE SHEAR GENERATED BY THE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT
OF THE H500 AND H250 JETS. THE ISSUE WILL BE INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS
HARD TO COME BY...BUT IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK HITS THEN ENOUGH MAY BE
THERE TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS...OR WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THIS SCENARIO IS NOT THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
OVERALL THE PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ONLY HAD THE TREND OF SOME
INCREASED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...OTHER THAN THAT A FAIRLY STABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THRU
FRIDAY...THEN THEY START TO VEER FROM EACH OTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK IS FOUND
USING THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE EURO HAS BEEN HAVING
SOME ISSUES DEALING WITH THE TROUGH FROM THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC PATTERN AS A WHOLE...THOUGH UNUSUALLY STRONG
AGREEMENT FOUND IN THE PACIFIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL BE USING A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EURO INTO FRIDAY...THEN MOVING WHOLLY
TOWARDS THE VERY STABLE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE CLOSED LOW INTO QUEBEC BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THEN TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY...CLOUDS LOOK TO
FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HI BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS STATES. WARP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...ENDING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOL AREA
OF CANADIAN HI PRESSURE STARTS TO DRIFT SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THE OPER
GFS SHOWS PRECIP HAVE NOT MENTIONED AS THE ENS MEAN SHOWS THE POPS
WELL LESS THAN CLIMO. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY MONDAY. AGAIN THE GFS HINTING AT SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES WORKING SOUTH...COVERAGE WOULD BE REMARKABLY
SMALL...AND MORE LIKELY ACROSS E KY AND ENS POPS ARE AGAIN MUCH
LOWER THAN CLIMO...WILL LEAVE DRY SUNDAY IN THE EAST AS WELL. SUNNY
SKIES LOOK LIKELY. TEMPS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY LOOK TO BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MORNINGS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND ENS GFS LATER
IN THE PERIOD FOR THE CONSISTENCY IT HAS SHOWN THERE...BUT ALSO IT
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG PAC JET COMING ONSHORE LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THUS CREATING THE FLATTER SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
DEEP TROUGH SEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO THE ATLC BY TUESDAY. TRAVEL
AROUND TURKEY DAY EVE STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND TEMPS LOOK TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING.
SCHOTT
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHRTWV
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS...LOCATED
IN-BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST INTO QUEBEC AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORE ACTIVITY IS NOTED TO
THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...WITH A SHRTWV TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE U.S.
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER SHRTWV LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO THE WEST TOO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV WITH 175KT SEEN AT 200MB ON AIRCRAFT OBS AT 12Z. THE
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115KT JET STREAK MOVING
NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO HELPED TO BRING SOME SNOW AND RAIN TO
THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ONLY THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ARE BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION NOW.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND ALL THE WAY
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA (CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT). THIS IS
DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SHRTWV TROUGH. THE 16Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM BEMIDJI
SHOWED THE INVERSION WELL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6C AROUND 910MB.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED BEHIND THIS OVER MINNESOTA. FARTHER
WEST...A 986MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...MORE SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE CWA...HELPING TO END
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...
THE SUBSIDENCE AGAIN SHOULD HELP TO LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WITH VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN...DO NOT SEE THE CLOUDS GOING AWAY ANY TIME
SOON. IN FACT...LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED READINGS EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS
ARE FAIRLY HIGH. IN ADDITION...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AS VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING OVER MINNESOTA DROPPED INTO
THE 3-4SM RANGE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION WENT THROUGH...AND SEE NO
REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN AGAIN OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE DRYING OCCURRING ALOFT. DID NOT MENTION ANY DRIZZLE SINCE
THE WEAK WIND FIELDS DO NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE.
TUESDAY...SHRTWV OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER JET...BEGIN TO DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE
TO THIS DIGGING...THE SHRTWV OVER THE ROCKIES IS PUSHED EAST AND
THEN NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. LITTLE EFFECT WILL
BE SEEN FROM THIS FEATURE...OTHER THAN FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
GIVEN VERY DRY AIR THAT IS PROGGED IN THE 4000-10000 FT RANGE.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY
SINCE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SE IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CAUSING UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FOR THE CENTRAL U.P. AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE
KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING INHIBITED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
IN...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE A WHOLE LOT AND GOING TEMPS
LOOKED REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
CWA FCST TO BE UNDER THE DOMINATION OF A RDG AXIS TUE NGT. WITH LGT
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND PERSISTENT LO INVRN TO THE W OF WEAK SHRTWV
PASSING TO THE E...SUSPECT LO CLDS WL BE PREVALENT UNDER AXIS OF LO
PWAT ARND 0.25 INCH PER NGM/ETA MOS. WITH NEGLIGIBLE MSTR ADVECTION
ON WED...SUSPECT LO CLD WL BE TENACIOUS WITH FCST NE LLVL FLOW AND
SHOW ONLY MINOR DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT. VARIOUS MODEL MOS FCST TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND RSNBL WITH LIMITED DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMP.
VIGOROUS CYC FCST TO DVLP OVER THE OH VALLEY ON WED FCST BY MAJORITY
OF MODELS TO PASS FAR ENUF TO THE E LATE THIS WEEK SO THAT
ACCOMPANYING PCPN PROGGED TO IMPACT ONLY THE ERN ZNS LATE THU INTO
FRI. BONE DRY MID LVL ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WOULD SUG A SHARP WRN EDGE
TO PCPN SHIELD. 12Z GFS FCST LO POSITION IS FARTHER W THAN MOST
MODEL FCSTS...BUT KEEPS BEST UPR DVGC IN COUPLED UPR JET STRUCTURE E
OF ERY. GIVEN THIS POSITION...ITS FCST DEEP SATURATION AT ERY AT 06Z
FRI APPEARS OVERDONE. HAVE OPTED TO CUT POPS OVER THE WRN ZNS GIVEN
LATEST FARTHER E MODEL FCST SCENARIOS AND GONE NO HIER THAN 50 POP
OVER THE FAR E. PER NCEP DISCUSSION...HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER THAN
12Z GFS FOR TIMING OF IMPACTS. AIRMASS IN THE CYC NNW FLOW FARTHER W
IS TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN...AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW AN
EXCESSIVELY DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SO NO POPS W OF P53-ESC THU THRU
FRI.
ON FRI NGT/SAT...BUMPED POPS UP TO HI CHC IN AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUP IN EXPECTED NW LLVL FLOW AS 12Z GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT 00Z ECMWF/
UKMET...00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND 06Z GFS/DGEX SHOWING SHRTWV
PASSAGE THEN.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS UPR RDGING BLDG IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND AFT
TROF IN THE CNTRL LKS ON SAT BEGINS TO PULL OUT. WL MAINTAIN LO CHC
POPS NR LK SUP FOR LINGERING LES ON SUN MRNG...BUT THEN GO DRY REST
OF SUN AND MON WITH UPR RDGING BLDG IN. MON MRNG SHOULD BE A COLD
ONE WITH HI PRES RDG AXIS/PWAT AS LO AS 0.1 INCH MOVING OVHD...SO WL
GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR INLAND AREAS.
COORDINATED WITH APX.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AJ (SHORT-TERM)
KC (LONG-TERM)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
206 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.UPDATE...
KGRR-88D SHOWS PCPN AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
PCPN IS NOW REACHING THE GROUND IN MIXED FORM WITH SOME WET SNOW
LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET IN SPOTS. CLEARLY RUC SOUNDINGS ARE NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB HANDLING THIS SITUATION. WILL UPDATE TO HIT MORE OF A MIX
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
93
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1206 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES HAVE ENDED WITH PASSAGE OF BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING...ALTHOUGH CDFNT IS STILL MOVING THRU THE FA ATTM...IT
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO WORK WITH AND NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING GREATER THAN A FEW SPKLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LO
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOK FOR MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN AREAS FROM THE STL
METRO AREA SWD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUD IS OCCURRING ON ITS
BACKSIDE AND WILL DELAY ANY CLEARING FOR THE WRN FA TIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
N-S BAND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS MOVG EWD THRU THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG
AHD OF SHRTWV TROF ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED WK CDFNT/SFC
TROF EXTDG FM ERN MN S-SW THRU ERN OK.  LATEST RUC ANLYS DEPICTS
RELATIVELY STG 800-600 MB WAA EXTDG FM SERN IA S-SW THRU N CNTRL AR
AHD OF LOW LVL TROF.  BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS ALSO SHOW UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MRNG AHD OF UPR LVL TROF.  IT
APRS THAT MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD PUSH E OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN AS
THE MID-UPR LVL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA.  THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLRG OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT LOOKING AT
MDL RH PROGS LOW LVL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN AND POSSIBLY INTO TGT.  WK SHRTWVS MOVG FAIRLY RAPIDLY
EWD THRU THE REGION MAY ALSO BRING SOME MID-UPR LVL CLOUDINESS TGT
OVR THE CWA.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WRMR ON TUE WITH S-SWLY
LOW LVL WNDS OVR THE CWA AHD OF DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES.  CLOUD CVR WILL BE INCRSG BY TUE AFTN BUT PCPN
SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL TUE NGT.  RAIN/SHRA WILL SPREAD EWD THRU MOST OF
THE CWA TUE NGT AHD OF DPNG MID-UPR LVL TROF MOVG EWD THRU THE
PLAINS STATES.  BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS DVLP MID LVL CUTOFF LOW BY 12Z
WED...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE DIFFERING POSITIONS OF MID LVL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.  GFS MDL IS FURTHER S WITH MID LVL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ON WED MOVG IT THRU NRN AR...WHILE THE NAM MDL
HAS IT MOVG EWD THRU SRN MO. ALTHOUGH EITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PCPN TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUE NGT AND WED...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF A LTL FURTHER S AND HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERTURES FOR THE CWA. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
MID LVL AND SFC LOW. WILL INCLUDE RELATIVELY HI POPS FOR TUE NGT
AND WED ESPECIALLY OVR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH MDLS
INDICATE INCRSG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVR THE CWA TUE NGT WITH
APPROACH OF UPR LVL TROF AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF ULJ STREAK ACRS
THE SRN PLAINS. LOOKING AT MID LVL Q CNVG...MID LVL MOISTURE AND
700 MB CVNG WILL LIKELY HAVE DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON WED INTO WED
EVNG ACRS CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA JUST N OF THE TRACK OF
THE DEEP MID LVL CLOSED LOW.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LO CLOUDS OVER THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA WILL MOVE INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE FA BEFORE LO
LEVEL RIDGE OVERTAKES IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STALLING OUT OF THESE LO
CLOUDS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE FA...WITH THE KSTL/KSUS TERMINALS
ON THE NWRN EDGE FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE THIS LO CLOUD BEGINS TO
LOWER AND BUILD BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT AS SELY LO LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MIST LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
CAN CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...SUCH AS KCOU/KUIN.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
244 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SPRINKLES OVER IL/IN BORDER EARLIER TODAY WERE FALLING OUT OF A MID
LEVEL DECK THAT IS PROGGED TO BE ALONG OR JUST PAST THE IN/OH BORDER
BY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN WRUNG
OUT BY THIS TIME...WILL MONITOR BUT NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA KEEPING A VERY
DRY AIRMASS AROUND H8. BELOW THIS HOWEVER...AXIS OF RH MIN AT H9 IS
SHOWING UP NICELY ON VIS IMAGE AND PROGGED TO MOVE W-E THROUGH
CWA...KEEPING MUCH OF KY OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AS IT PASSES OVER THE OHVLY
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK SFC TROF UNDERNEATH IT GRADUALLY LIFTING N.
LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK IN TOMORROW FROM NW-SE EVEN AS SFC HI
TRAVERSES OHVLY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC LOW COMING IN FROM THE MISWEST WED.
E WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF SFC L MOVING UP
OHRIVER. PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM SW-NE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...REACHING ERN CWA BY NIGHTFALL.
GENERALLY RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WAS HESITANT
TO CHANGE WED NIGHT WITH A STRONG W-E GRADIENT AS SFC L PASSES OVER
CWA WITH EXPECTED PRECIP AND WRAP AROUND CAA TO THE WEST. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS IN THE NW BY A BIT TUES WITH THE THOUGHT OF SIGNIFICANT
LOW CLOUDS HOLDING BACK ANY DIURNAL HEATING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WED
WERE CLOSE TO PREV FCST.
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SW FROM SFC CIRCULATION. DISJOINTED DYNAMICS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN WILL JUST BE SHOWERY ACTVITY.
FRANKS
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW
MIXING IN THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW. FOR
FRIDAY...HAVE FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LAKE MOISTURE MAY COME INTO PLAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON
SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO EASTERN LOCATIONS AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR NEXT MONDAY.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS POINTS TO TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT A BIT BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
WEDGE OF CLR SKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE E THRU THE WESTERN TAFS ATTM.
HAVE IT TIMED TO ILN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND TO CMH/LCK BY 21Z.
NEXT PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS OVER IN WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE TAFS AND AT WHAT LEVEL. MODELS DONT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THINGS
VERY WELL. THE NAM AND RUC HAVE THE CLRG...BUT FORM CU IN IT
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEY DONT BRING THE HIGHER H9 MOISTURE
BACK IN TIL AFT 03Z.
DECIDED TO EXTRAPOLATE THE CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBS AND BRING
THEM IN...WHICH WOULD BRING THE CLOUDS BACK INTO CVG/LUK AROUND
22Z WITH CIGS AROUND 1K FT. IFR CIGS SHOULD REACH DAY/ILN AROUND
00Z AND CMH/LCK AROUND 02Z. THIS IFR DECK ONLY SEEMS 50 TO 75
MILES WIDE AS CIGS OVER CENTRL IL ARE AROUND 5K. RAISED CIGS FOR A
FEW HOURS TO VFR...BEFORE ALLOWING HIGHER H9 MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK INTO THE TAFS AROUND 12Z.
SITES
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
WEDGE OF CLR SKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE E THRU THE WESTERN TAFS ATTM.
HAVE IT TIMED TO ILN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND TO CMH/LCK BY 21Z.
NEXT PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS OVER IN WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE TAFS AND AT WHAT LEVEL. MODELS DONT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THINGS
VERY WELL. THE NAM AND RUC HAVE THE CLRG...BUT FORM CU IN IT
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEY DONT BRING THE HIGHER H9 MOISTURE
BACK IN TIL AFT 03Z.
DECIDED TO EXTRAPOLATE THE CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBS AND BRING
THEM IN...WHICH WOULD BRING THE CLOUDS BACK INTO CVG/LUK AROUND
22Z WITH CIGS AROUND 1K FT. IFR CIGS SHOULD REACH DAY/ILN AROUND
00Z AND CMH/LCK AROUND 02Z. THIS IFR DECK ONLY SEEMS 50 TO 75
MILES WIDE AS CIGS OVER CENTRL IL ARE AROUND 5K. RAISED CIGS FOR A
FEW HOURS TO VFR...BEFORE ALLOWING HIGHER H9 MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK INTO THE TAFS AROUND 12Z.
SITES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WEDGE OF CLRG FORMED IN ERN IN AND SHOULD WORK NE DURING THE AFTN.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS AFTN.
SITES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION. BACK
EDGE OF ST IS ON THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM. EVEN IF INVERSION DOES
BREAK THERE IS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING OVER. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT IN IL IS WORKING E QUICKLY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...LOWERED TEMPS FOR TODAY A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NW WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW THE CURVE.
SITES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
06Z NAM/GFS SOLNS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT LOCATION OF SC DECK A
LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN PREV RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD FCST REMAINS LOW. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY YET AGAIN TODAY AS LO LVL FLO REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALL DAY AHEAD OF APPCHG WEAK FRNTL BNDRY. EASTERLY
FLO IN BNDRY LYR BEGINNING TO SLACK AND VEER TO SRLY...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SC DECK HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED WEST ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
INDIANA/KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING INVERSION STRONGER THAN
PREV THOUGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH BNDRY LYR MIXING. KCVG/KLUK PROBABLY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK OUT OF MVFR CIGS BY MID/LATE
AFTN...BEING REPLACED BY EXTENSIVE AC DECK AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVNG
HOURS.
BNDRY APPEARS TO WASH OUT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LO LVL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO EITHER
REESTABLISH OR REINFORCE SC DECK INTO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
RYAN
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 301 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT
OVER FORECAST AREA CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW OR ALL SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TODAYS CLOUD FORECAST IT IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD. STRATUS IS
STILL HANGING TIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
NAM/RUC SHOWING RH DECREASING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY. THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME MIXING OUT...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER THAT TO SOME
DEGREE ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THUS WILL GO WITH BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH.
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW NO ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FIRST
AND FIFTH PERIODS WERE MAV WAS LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
TIPTON
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UP SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED BUT BETTER CHANCES
AFTER 12Z WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL AT
AROUND 12Z WED WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN SC. THEN THE IL/IN LOW WILL MOV NE ACROSS OH INTO THE GRT
LKS BY 18Z THU. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF
THE GRT LKS INTO CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A NW FLOW WITH THE MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN...MAINLY EARLY
THU MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE RESTRICTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED.
HIGHS START OUT IN THE 50S WED AND LOWS THU IN THE 40S WITH A
GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1145 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WEDGE OF CLRG FORMED IN ERN IN AND SHOULD WORK NE DURING THE AFTN.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS AFTN.
SITES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION. BACK
EDGE OF ST IS ON THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM. EVEN IF INVERSION DOES
BREAK THERE IS A LOT OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING OVER. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT IN IL IS WORKING E QUICKLY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...LOWERED TEMPS FOR TODAY A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NW WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW THE CURVE.
SITES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
06Z NAM/GFS SOLNS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT LOCATION OF SC DECK A
LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN PREV RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD FCST REMAINS LOW. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY YET AGAIN TODAY AS LO LVL FLO REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALL DAY AHEAD OF APPCHG WEAK FRNTL BNDRY. EASTERLY
FLO IN BNDRY LYR BEGINNING TO SLACK AND VEER TO SRLY...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SC DECK HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED WEST ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
INDIANA/KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING INVERSION STRONGER THAN
PREV THOUGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH BNDRY LYR MIXING. KCVG/KLUK PROBABLY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK OUT OF MVFR CIGS BY MID/LATE
AFTN...BEING REPLACED BY EXTENSIVE AC DECK AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVNG
HOURS.
BNDRY APPEARS TO WASH OUT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LO LVL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO EITHER
REESTABLISH OR REINFORCE SC DECK INTO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
RYAN
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 301 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT
OVER FORECAST AREA CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW OR ALL SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TODAYS CLOUD FORECAST IT IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD. STRATUS IS
STILL HANGING TIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
NAM/RUC SHOWING RH DECREASING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY. THINK THERE WILL
BE SOME MIXING OUT...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER THAT TO SOME
DEGREE ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THUS WILL GO WITH BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH.
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW NO ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FIRST
AND FIFTH PERIODS WERE MAV WAS LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
TIPTON
PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW UP SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED BUT BETTER CHANCES
AFTER 12Z WED. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN IL AT
AROUND 12Z WED WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN SC. THEN THE IL/IN LOW WILL MOV NE ACROSS OH INTO THE GRT
LKS BY 18Z THU. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF
THE GRT LKS INTO CANADA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A NW FLOW WITH THE MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN...MAINLY EARLY
THU MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE RESTRICTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED.
HIGHS START OUT IN THE 50S WED AND LOWS THU IN THE 40S WITH A
GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
</PRE></TT></td>   oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCE/TYPE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO
EASTERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WERE CLEARING EASTWARD SLOWLY...
IN SPITE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
FURTHER WEST...HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
12Z 13NOV06 MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUED TO HAVE EXCELLENT CLUSTERING
WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM THEN SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAVIEST...IF NOT MOST
OF THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE SUPPORTED THIS SOLUTION.
TONIGHT...BASED ON CLEARING OCCURRING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF APPEAR ON TARGET WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO CLEAR EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MOIST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
PRIMED FOR SOME FOG.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS GOING TO BE ONSET OF HIGH CLOUDS. TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY FOG INTRODUCED
BY LAST NIGHTS MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE ONSET
OF HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND MORE VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE RESIDES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB LOW CLOSES OFF. BELIEVE BEST
PROBABILITIES OF QPF WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MOST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE REMOVED
OR REDUCED...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI.
NCEP SREF AND BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN THAN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT
DATA BASE SUPPORTS RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED TO ALLOW
FURTHER EVALUATION OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. IN FACT...
BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING CONSENSUS ON A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
GFS SUGGESTS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT QPF POTENTIAL. GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS CERTAINLY INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE ADDED TO CURRENT DATA BASE. FOR NOW...OPTED NOT TO
ADD ANY LIGHT QPF AWAITING FURTHER EVALUATION OF SUBSEQUENT MODELS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
THOMPSON
</PRE></TT></td>   wi