AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                     
 331 PM MST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 ...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS                 
 EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...                                           
 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO          
 EVOLVE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.                
 DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW                  
 PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL                    
 CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC...BRINGING WIDESPREAD               
 PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. VERY STRONG SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO           
 LAY NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THIS            
 AFTERNOON. SFC WNDS AT SEVERAL SITES ALONG INTERSTATE 70 HAVE SWUNG            
 AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. LATEST RUC MODELS AGREES WITH             
 THIS POSITIONING AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO START SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH            
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...LAPS SFC                 
 ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE GUNNISON VALLEY...WHICH WILL                
 EVENTUALLY HELP DRAW THE COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE                  
 REMAINDER OF WESTERN COLORADO.  AND THIS WL HELP TO DRIVE THE COLDER           
 AIR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND DESERTS. AS A          
 RESULT...AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THIS              
 EVENING OVER THE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD ADVISORY TO WARNING SNOWFALL IS           
 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS             
 THE CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM MOIST AIR CONTS TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS             
 THE REGION THANKS TO THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW.           
 CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS              
 THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND LIFTS ENE. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WILL            
 BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING TO SUB-          
 ZERO READING BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD DAY ON SUNDAY WITH                        
 SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE DIVIDE REGION IN COLD NLY FLOW ALOFT.             
 DAYTIME HIGHS VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE                
 FORECAST AREA.                                                                 
 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                    
 MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE AS LINGERING ENERGY AT THE              
 BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HIGH            
 PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUN NIGHT                   
 REMAINING SHOWERS FROM THE PRESENT SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE              
 MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC                  
 SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MON. COLD TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST              
 PROBLEM. THE COLD AIR MASS AND FRESH SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD             
 TEMPS AS THE SKIES CLEAR EARLY MON AND TUE...WITH STRONG VALLEY                
 INVERSIONS SETTING UP. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS BELOW ZERO.              
 THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST TO EAST BY TUE KEEPING US DRY AND COLD.             
 THEN...MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS APART BY WED AS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE              
 ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER WA...AND FLOW BECOMING             
 SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS              
 BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHWEST FLOW             
 OVER US. BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP US DRY THROUGH THU...WITH A WETTER                
 SOLUTION ON FRI WITH THE EC. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE DRIER PERSISTENT            
 FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...ESPECIALLY          
 ON SLOPES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. INVERSIONS WILL HOLD FAST OVER            
 MOST VALLEY AREAS.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 .CO...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 1/2.               
       WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ZONES                          
        3/9/12/13/17/18/19/23.                                                  
       SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ZONES                
        4/10.                                                                   
       SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ZONES                                 
        5/6/7/8/11/14/20/21/22.                                                 
 .UT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 23/25.            
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 24.                 
       SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR                      
        ZONE 28.                                                                
       SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR                       
        ZONE 22/27/29.                                                          
 $$                                                                             
 JDC/EH                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 422 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...PRETTY MUCH STATUS              
 QUO AS THE SFC MAP IS CONCERNED WITH HIGH PRES CNTRD TO OUR NE OVER            
 THE WRN ATLC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS.             
 MEANWHILE...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SC/GA COASTS.            
 STRATOCU ASSCD WITH THE TROUGH HAS HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT ONSHORE           
 AND TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE            
 AREA. SHUD SEE THE TROUGH DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES              
 FARTHER E. SKIES WILL END UP BEING PCLDY AND WITH LGT WINDS...CUD              
 SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM. LOWS           
 WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.               
 OUTSIDE OF A DECENT CU FIELD AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS...XPCT ENOUGH SUN            
 TOMORROW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S...A GOOD 15 DEG              
 ABOVE NORMAL. A MILD S TO SW FLOW TOMORROW NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A             
 DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEG INLAND             
 TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST...STILL ABOUT 15 DEG ABOVE                    
 NORMAL.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STRONG RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND           
 ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON...THEN WILL GIVE              
 WAY TO NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TUE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO           
 PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH            
 POSSIBLE 80 DEGREE TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS A FEW                  
 SECTIONS OF THE SRN CWFA. A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT TO PREVAIL BOTH                
 AFTNS...WITH COOLING SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.                                    
 WILL KEEP WATCH ON POSSIBLE COASTAL SHRA WITH STRENGTHENING AND                
 DEEPENING S-SW FLOW SUN NIGHT/MON...BUT FOR NOW FEEL THAT STEERING             
 FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SHRA OVER THE ATLC. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO            
 THE CHANCE RANGE ON TUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                              
 FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED...AND WILL                 
 LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE SW ATLC AND FL...AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS            
 FROM THE N AND W. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT           
 AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING           
 RAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                           
 AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIR             
 MAY RESULT IN SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE NRN MOST            
 AREAS...BUT THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO GO               
 WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN IN THE FCST.                                     
 EVEN SO...COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS ON WED            
 DOWN IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.                                       
 DRIER AND EVEN COLDER WX TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE           
 FREEZING TEMPS THU AND FRI MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SC/GA COASTS THIS AFTN              
 BUT SHUD FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE            
 N AND E SHIFTS FARTHER E. WILL HAVE E TO NE WINDS THE FIRST HALF OF            
 THE NIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...VEERING TO E/SE LATE...MORE IN           
 LINE WITH THE RUC WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. THE           
 SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS IS STILL AN ISSUE AS SEAS HAVE BEEN 4-5            
 FT AT THE R2 TOWER TDA. THE WNA GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT           
 AT 41008 TONIGHT BUT CANNOT BUY INTO THIS SINCE IT IS BASED ON THE             
 SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF THE GFS. PREFER TO CANCEL THE SCA WITH              
 THE AFTN PACKAGE AND REPLACE IT WITH A SCSEC HEADLINE INSTEAD. MAY             
 SEE SOME 6 FT SEAS COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A              
 MORE SOLID SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BUT WILL NOT BE RAISING THAT           
 HEADLINE ATTM. OTHERWISE...WINDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB HEADLINE                  
 CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                                                    
 ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND EARLY MON WILL SHIFT SE AND               
 GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE FRONT           
 WILL SLOWLY MOVE THRU THE AREA DURING TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS           
 FROM THE NW AND N. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND PINCHED GRADIENT WILL            
 LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SCA HEADLINES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE               
 NIGHT/WED.                                                                     
 DEPENDING UPON IF WINDS ARE MORE N OR NE DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP            
 DETERMINE HOW HIGH SEAS WILL REACH...AND I MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE              
 CONSERVATIVE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FETCH. EVEN                   
 SO...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 OR 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE                 
 COAST...AND UP TO 8 OR 9 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
 LOCAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL BACK WINDS TO SE OR S NEAR THE                
 COAST SUN AND MON AFTN.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...CONDITIONS XPCTD TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.           
 MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT FELT CHANCES WERE            
 TOO LOW TO MENTION.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RJB/33                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1005 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...HIGH PRES CNTRD OVER THE WRN ATLC               
 JUST E OF THE NC OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING WITH A COASTAL TROUGH                
 HANGING TOUGH OVER THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY             
 INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING E OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF             
 STRATOCU OFF THE COAST TRYING TO WORK WWD. WITH A DECENT CU FIELD              
 XPCTD THIS AFTN...THINK THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH             
 THE DAY...SO PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER SHUD COVER IT. PLAN TO REMOVE              
 THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN SC COUNTIES AS WE PREFER TO JUST                 
 MENTION ISO SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEG AWAY FROM THE            
 COAST...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST              
 DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS AND ZFP                
 NEEDED. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...PREFER TO FOLLOW THE RUC DEPICTION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH             
 AS THE GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE POORLY. THE LATEST OBS               
 INDICATE WINDS AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS AOB 5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER           
 GA WATERS. TOUGH CALL ON THE SCA FOR AMZ374 AS SEAS HAVE BEEN                  
 FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A WHILE AND WILL LIKELY             
 CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE PESKY COASTAL TROUGH IN            
 PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE THINKING OF KEEPING SOLID NE WINDS GOING              
 FOR THE MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THEN GRADUALLY VEER              
 WINDS E/SE THROUGH THE AFTN. E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE             
 GA OFFSHORE WATERS TDA WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH HOLDING JUST W OF               
 AMZ374. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE              
 NEARSHORE WATERS TDA WITH 4-6 FT IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.                       
 OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CWF WITH THE MID-MORNING              
 UPDATE.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...CONDITIONS XPCTD TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD            
 ALTHO BKN CIGS ARE A GOOD BET ON/OFF THROUGH THE DAY...ESPCLY AT               
 KCHS.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR AMZ374.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RJB                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 310 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...COASTAL TROF HANGING STRONG OFF           
 THE CHS CWFA SHORE THIS MRNG AS EVIDENCED BY CONVERGING STREAMLINES            
 ON MSAS ANALYSIS AND BUOYS WITH SE WINDS WHILE SHORELINE OBS ARE NE.           
 TROF WILL HAVE A BIT OF A STRUGGLE LIFTING N AND AWAY FROM THE AREA            
 THIS MRNG WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AND THIS              
 WILL HELP KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MIDLVL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU MOST            
 OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOCLR SKIES FOR INLAND               
 SITES WHICH MATCH SFC OBS...CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL           
 SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND AND COMBINE WITH LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN CU                  
 DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST PTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE ONLY              
 SHOT AT PRECIP TDA WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUFORT-COLLETON-CHARLESTON              
 COAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT WITHIN THE TROF ALONG              
 WITH A SPOT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONVERGE TDA. IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS           
 IT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR               
 ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED THICKER CLOUD COVER... SW             
 TO W UPR FLOW TO THE W OF THE CWFA AND AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER            
 THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE...FORCING MAX                
 TEMPS TO ARND 70 DEGREES.                                                      
 SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT INTO SAT AS THE TROF            
 APPEARS TO MORE DISSIPATE RATHER THAN LIFT NWD. LACK OF GOOD                   
 CONVERGENCE AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE 1000-500MB COLUMN SHOULD                  
 PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP THE             
 FCST DRY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TNGT AND TMRW WITH THE UPR LVL                
 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD AND DEEPER SWLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. MIN TEMPS            
 TNGT WILL DROP TO ARND 50 DEGREES WITH MAX TEMPS ON SAT RISING TO              
 THE MID 70S.                                                                   
 SIMILAR STORY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING FURTHER            
 INTO THE ATLC WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL IN THE ATLC EXTENDING           
 WWD OVER THE SE CONUS COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY...           
 REACHING THE MID 50S FOR MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUN             
 RISING INTO THE UPR 70S...MAKING 80 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE             
 QUESTION.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODELS STILL LOOK ON              
 TRACK FOR A LOW PRES CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH            
 VLY SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT TO MOVE ACRS TX AND              
 INTO THE LWR MISS VLY. THIS FNT WILL DRAG ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES           
 MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE SE STATES TUE AND TUE            
 NIGHT. STILL SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...           
 SO WILL LEAVE POPS CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. THE FNT THEN LOOKS TO           
 STALL JUST S AND E OF THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP                
 CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. A                 
 SECONDARY CDFNT WILL THEN SWING THRU THE AREA THU WHICH WILL BRING A           
 NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH            
 TIMING ISSUES MAKING CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW...HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED            
 PORTION ALONE AND WILL LET A FULL MODEL AND HPC SLATE DURING DAY               
 SHIFT DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF THE EXTENDED.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...A SHARP COASTAL TROF REMAINS PINNED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE             
 WTRS THIS MRNG. THE 12/08Z OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS                  
 EXTENDED FROM SAINT SIMMONS TO ABT 20 NM E OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR            
 ENTRANCE TO PSN OFF THE SE NC COAST. THE GFS/NAM BOTH INITIALIZED              
 THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE COASTAL TROF POORLY AND ARE STILL             
 WAY TOO QUICK IN MOVING IT INLAND TDA AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FARTHER              
 OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. ONLY THE 12/03Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD               
 HANDLE ON THE MESO-SCALE SITUATION AND WL BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR              
 THE NXT 6 HRS OR SO. PLAN TO KEEP SOLID NE WNDS GOING FOR MUCH OF              
 THE MRNG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS THEN GRADUALLY VEER WNDS E/SE               
 THROUGH THE AFTN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A REAL                      
 POSSIBILITY THAT WNDS MAY REMAIN NE WELL INTO THE AFTN ESP ACROSS              
 THE SC WTRS UNTIL THE COASTAL TROF BECOMES OVERWHELMED BY THE INCRG            
 SLY SYNOPTIC FLOW AND DISSIPATES. SE WNDS WL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GA             
 OFFSHORE WTRS TDA WITH THE COASTAL TROF HOLDING JUST W OF AMZ374.              
 THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS           
 MRNG WHERE WNDS ARE SOLIDLY 15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT PER                 
 CARO-COOP AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS. XPCT WNDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH                 
 THROUGH THE MRNG BUT WL NEED TO BREAK OFF THE WTRS N OF EDISTO BEACH           
 TO INITIALIZE SLGTLY HIGHER WNDS. SEAS WL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE              
 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS TDA BUT WL HOLD IN THE 4-6              
 RANGE IN THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WL BE               
 MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTN.                                                      
 SLY WNDS WL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE              
 MARINE AREA REMAINING ON THE WRN FRINGES OF ATLC HIGH PRES. A CDFNT            
 IS FCST TO PUSH THROUGH THE WTRS ERLY NXT WEEK.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF STRATOCU MOVING                   
 INLAND FROM THE ATLC WL IMPACT KCHS AND KSAV FOR MUCH OF THE MRNG.             
 DESPITE THIS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS...HOLDING                
 AROUND 4000-5000 FT. MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU SCATTER OUT LTR              
 THIS MRNG. WE MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE AS            
 SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE           
 AFTN ESP AT KCHS.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR AMZ374.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPC/ST                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 940 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 AT 02Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...FAR SE                    
 MICHIGAN...THEN IT EXTENDED SW INTO NE...CNTRL...AND SW INDIANA.               
 THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST               
 AREA OVERNIGHT.                                                                
 UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WX DISTURBANCES AND UPR            
 LVL JET DYNAMICS WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING OVER            
 THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. HENCE...PCPN WILL BE              
 WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
 THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACRS THE NRN AND NWRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT             
 AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LVLS SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTHEAST.  HAVE MADE             
 SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS.  BELIEVE CHC/S FOR SNOW             
 ARE SLIM TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE REMOVED             
 SNOW AND HAVE GONE WITH JUST A CHC OF SLEET.  HAVE ALSO MODIFIED               
 OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S N AND NW            
 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 32               
 DEGREES IN THE N AND NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT           
 FREEZING RAIN CHC/S DUE TO THE BORDERLINE VALUE.  THERE COULD BE A             
 CHC OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY IF TEMPS DIP TO 31 DEGREES              
 BRIEFLY.  MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS                   
 POSSIBILITY AS THEY WATCH HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS              
 TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL            
 BE PULLING AWAY SOME FROM THE CWA TOMORROW. EVEN TOMORROW THE                  
 MORNING HOURS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DO. WITH           
 THE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS               
 EVENING AND JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WILL GIVE            
 THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE               
 NORTHERN PART. ALSO THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE                 
 COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PART THAN IN THE SOUTHERN PART AND MORE SO              
 NEAR THE SURFACE. THEREFORE AS TONIGHT WEARS ON FROM NORTH TO                  
 SOUTH...A MIX OF PRECIP HAS A CHANCE TO FORM. A LITTLE TRICKY TO SEE           
 IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GET COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR               
 FREEZING RAIN TO COME INTO THE MIX IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT              
 DIDN`T LOOK LIKE A BIG ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF            
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES START DROPPING OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED AND THE             
 SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN               
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW            
 FOR OUR NORTHERN PART. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH               
 COLD AIR IS GOING TO PENETRATE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.              
 ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN TYPE PRECIP TO FALL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IS              
 NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO AS MUCH AS THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS                   
 LOOKING. LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT TO DROP              
 THE NORTH BY A DEGREE FOR TOMORROW.                                            
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 CDFNT DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL STALL OVER THE OH RVR           
 VALLEY ON SAT. DEEP TROF OVER WRN U.S. WILL CONT WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT             
 OVER OUR AREA. WK DISTURBANCES MOVG NE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WILL             
 RESULT IN ONCL BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT AND ENHANCED OVER-RUNNING                
 POTENTIAL. TIMING OF THESE WK SHRTWV`S IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS             
 JUNCTURE AS MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT           
 ON A COUPLE OF SUCH WAVES SAT NGT AND SUND. THUS, LEFT POPS FOR SAT            
 NGT IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW AND CONTD WITH LOW QPF.                            
 OVERLAYING MSP SOUNDING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES ALL MODELS              
 INITIALIZED THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO WARM BELOW 950MB AND NOT QUITE              
 WARM ENOUGH WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700MB. THUS, HEDGED               
 TOWARD A LITTLE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC FOR               
 PTYPE AND MIN/MAX CONSIDERATIONS THIS WEEKEND.                                 
 SGFNT PRECIP FROM THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUN AFTN-EVE AS STRONG             
 TROF LIFTS ENE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ENHANCING OVER-RUNNING OF SFC             
 BOUNDARY. LEANED TOWARD GFS TIMING WHICH IS FASTER THAN NAM. STILL A           
 GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA WITH THIS PATTERN. HELD           
 OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW SINCE SGFNT PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN              
 4TH PD AT THE EARLIEST. HWVR, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WEAKER                   
 SHRTWV`S MOVG THROUGH THE AREA COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY SOONER.           
 NAM/GFS CONSISTENT INDICATING DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE AREA LATE           
 SUNDAY NGT BRINGING SGFNT PRECIP TO AN END WITH DEFORMATION ZONE               
 PRECIP STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. NORMALLY THIS IS NOT A                 
 SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW, BUT WITH VERY MOIST AMS (700MB              
 MIXING RATIO AROUND 4G/KG SUN EVE) OVER-RUNNING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY,           
 CAN`T RULE THIS OUT.                                                           
 SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PSBL MONDAY AS UPPER TROF SHEARS OUT                 
 ACROSS THE GRTLKS. GOING CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES             
 FOR MON NGT-TUE NGT AS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREME, HWVR,           
 INVERSION HEIGHTS AT THIS POINT LOOK RATHER LOW FOR SGFNT LAKE                 
 EFFECT SNOW. RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH ANOTHER           
 FRONT APPROACHING ON THU. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PD BUT WITH PASSAGE             
 OF THE CDFNT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
 ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS AGAIN FRI.                                             
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 AT 23Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SRN ONTARIO...SE LOWER                     
 MICHIGAN...THROUGH NW INDIANA...THEN SW INTO THE MID MS RIVER VLY.             
 THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SE THROUGH THE REGION                            
 OVERNIGHT...BEING LOCATED FROM WRN NY...SRN OHIO AND SRN INDIANA BY            
 12Z SATURDAY.                                                                  
 LOCAL AND SURROUNDING RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD              
 AREA OF PCPN ACRS ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO.  ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS           
 SEEN ON THE  295 K SFC...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN OVER           
 RUNNING PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA.  ALSO...A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED WX                
 DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SOME UPR DIVERGENCE FROM A ANTICYCLONICALLY            
 CURVED UPR LVL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE PCPN POTENTIAL.                       
 SHALLOW...COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW INDIANA OVERNIGHT TO BRING A            
 THREAT OF SOME SLEET...AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE KSBN TAF ATTM.  FOR           
 KFWA...PCPN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM...THEN TAPER OFF TOWARD           
 12Z.  IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.  THEN...A           
 RESPITE IN THE WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL            
 ALLOW VSBYS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.                                      
 ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH A               
 RETURN OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR WINTRY PCPN            
 TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                      
 SHORT TERM...98                                                                
 LONG TERM....01                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 443 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRIMARY FOCUS ON LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE                    
 TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.               
 AT 09Z PLUME OF HIR SFC DPS FM ERN TX NOSING INTO ERN KS. WAVE                 
 EMBEDDED IN ML WSWRLY FLOW TO AID IN STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS              
 TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TODAY. AS WAVE MOVES EWD              
 INTO MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND STRONG SFC-8H FLOW VEERS MOISTURE AXIS              
 TO SHIFT INTO CWA. WL SEE SFC DPS TO SHOW DRAMATIC RISE OF UP                  
 TO 20F HIR IN ABOUT 24HRS ADN CPDS LOWER TO NEAR ZERO AFTR 06Z.                
 PRECIP TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT IN INCREASINGLY                  
 CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST I295 PRES ADVECTION WILL         
 BE EAST OF CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUB CLOUD LAYER                        
 SATURATES...SO ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE                  
 WITH LESS FORCING...AND HAVE CUT QPF A BIT. WITH NAM AND GFS                   
 SHOWING GOOD OVERALL SIGNALS AND HIGH MOS POPS HOWEVER WILL UP                 
 POPS AFT MIDNIGHT TO LOW END CATAGORICAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS               
 TODAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST G35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GREATEST                
 1000-950MB LAPSE RATES REALIZE BEST MOMENTUM XFER. SHOULD TEMPS                
 TREND WARMER EVEN HIR GUSTS INTO LOW END ADVISORY RANGE COULD BE               
 REALIZED. WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND WELL MIXED BL TONIGHT HAVE               
 RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                       
 PICTURE NOT A WHOLE LOT CLEARER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD               
 THAN LAST NIGHT.                                                               
 RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES ACROSS             
 THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING ITS SE MVMT ACROSS THE AREA               
 SOMETIME FRI NGT OR SATURDAY. HAVE NOT INCREASED TO CAT POPS                   
 ANYWHERE ON FRI AS OF YET AS TRENDS HAVE BEGAN TO TAKE MUCH OF THE             
 HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL             
 APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND TO MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY             
 POPS ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY AND EXTEND LIKELY POPS INTO FRI EVE IN SE             
 AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE FRI NGT INTO                    
 SATURDAY. THIS AND AMOUNT OF REMAINING MSTR WILL LEAD TO A TRICKY              
 SCENARIO IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE. NAM THERMAL FIELDS              
 WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT           
 WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING COULD END UP FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILES           
 SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -5 TO -7 C BY SAT           
 AFTERNOON. THIS UNCERTANTITY HAS PLAGUED THE FORECAST FOR THE PAST             
 FEW DAYS NOW AND APPEARS NO CLEARER NOW. MIX PRECIP WAS DROPPED A              
 FEW DAYS AGO AND LOOK LIKE WILL BE FORCED TO THROW THIS BACK IN NW             
 AREA LATE FRI NGT AND NW HALF OF SO ON SAT WITH JUST RAIN SE.                  
 FINAL SURGE OF WARMER AIR BEGINS SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF             
 PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US BEGINNING TO EJECT AS ANOTHER WAVE              
 AND 120+KT JET STREAK GIVE IT A KICK OUT. HOW MUCH MSTR AND WARM AIR           
 ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE KEY IN PCPN CHANCES AS WELL AS TYPE.                
 THINK LIGHT PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN MATERIALIZE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA            
 BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST CHC POPS REMAINING THERE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR           
 MASS AND SLOWER KICK OUT OF SYSTEM MAY PRECLUDE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP              
 UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY               
 THAT MAY END UP THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP               
 WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW HALF            
 OF CWA. TRACK OF SFC LOW GENERALLY OVER OR SE OF THE CWA WITH MAIN             
 CONSENSUS TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ON MONDAY. ANY DEVIATION IN             
 THIS WILL DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE                   
 HEAVIEST PRECIP. PAST SEVERAL MODELS RUNS HAVE PLACED THE HEAVIEST             
 SNOW FROM N ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NORTHERN LWR MI.                      
 HOWEVER...TRENDS STILL SUGGESTING THAT A BUFFER ZONE OF A MIXED BAG            
 OF PRECIP COULD SET UP SOUTH OF THIS BAND WHICH WOULD INCLUDE PARTS            
 OF THE CWA. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED SO STAY TUNED TO              
 LATER FORECASTS.                                                               
 BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR STILL ARRIVING BY MON NGT/TUES WITH TEMPS                  
 HEADING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ANY SNOW             
 COVER COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.               
 WITH COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY            
 OCCUR BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE REMAIN TRICKY AS EITHER NW OR N               
 FLOW COULD SET UP OVER LK MI NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE GRIDS ALONE FOR             
 THIS TIME FRAME.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR XPCD THROUGH THE PD. VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE IN SRN SK...WITH              
 ASSOCD STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SPLITTING AWAY FROM MAIN ENERGY IN NW            
 WA. LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD AS JET           
 AXIS VEERS SLIGHTLY EARLLY THIS AM. SECOND GATE KIWX VWP TO 47 KTS             
 IN SRN SK WITH STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SECONDARY ENERGY/WAVE                    
 SPLITTING OFF INTO NW WA. THOUGH SOME MINOR SFC GUSTS POSBL THIS               
 AM...CLEARLY SUFFICIENT DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED ACRS NRN IN PER 05             
 UTC SFC ANALYSIS...WARRANTING CONTINUED MENTION OF LLWS AT BOTH                
 SITES. HAVE FURTHER INCREASED WS020 WIND SPEED TO 60KTS AT KSBN PER            
 KLOT VWP/WOLCOTT PROFILER/NAM12/RUC POINT SNDGS. GREATER MIXING BY             
 MID/LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WIND GUST/MOMENTUM XFER POTENTIAL            
 FOR AT LEAST G32 KTS. RAFL TO ARRIVE BEYOND 06 UTC AND WILL PROVIDE            
 TIMING DETAILS WITH 12 UTC ISSUANCE...THOUGH AT LEAST MVFR BY 12 UTC           
 FRI ANTICIPATED.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MURPHY                                                   
 LONG TERM...FISHER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 105 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR XPCD THROUGH THE PD. VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE IN SRN SK...WITH              
 ASSOCD STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SPLITTING AWAY FROM MAIN ENERGY IN NW            
 WA. LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD AS JET           
 AXIS VEERS SLIGHTLY EARLLY THIS AM. SECOND GATE KIWX VWP TO 47 KTS             
 IN SRN SK WITH STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SECONDARY ENERGY/WAVE                    
 SPLITTING OFF INTO NW WA. THOUGH SOME MINOR SFC GUSTS POSBL THIS               
 AM...CLEARLY SUFFICIENT DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED ACRS NRN IN PER 05             
 UTC SFC ANALYSIS...WARRANTING CONTINUED MENTION OF LLWS AT BOTH                
 SITES. HAVE FURTHER INCREASED WS020 WIND SPEED TO 60KTS AT KSBN PER            
 KLOT VWP/WOLCOTT PROFILER/NAM12/RUC POINT SNDGS. GREATER MIXING BY             
 MID/LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WIND GUST/MOMENTUM XFER POTENTIAL            
 FOR AT LEAST G32 KTS. RAFL TO ARRIVE BEYOND 06 UTC AND WILL PROVIDE            
 TIMING DETAILS WITH 12 UTC ISSUANCE...THOUGH AT LEAST MVFR BY 12 UTC           
 FRI ANTICIPATED.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND AND THURSDAY...                                                    
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM TN/OH VALLEY INTO            
 EASTERN GREAT LAKES. VIS SAT SHOWING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD            
 OF WARM FRONT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ATTM.           
 BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EXPECTING             
 CLEARING IN OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY            
 NORTHWARD. SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST BRINGING STRONGER GRADIENT OVER THE            
 AREA TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE DECOUPLING EARLY ON...ESPECIALLY           
 IN EASTERN CWA...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL COOLING            
 AS CLOUD COVER EARLY EVENING AND WAA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD WORK TO             
 LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE. LOOK           
 FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EARLY ON TOMORROW BEFORE CLOUDS ARE            
 ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. MORNING SUN SHOULD SET THE            
 STAGE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH 15-20KT SUSTAINED AND MIXING DOWN GUSTS             
 TO 30KT. GOOD WAA WILL SEE NEARLY A 10C JUMP IN 850MB TEMPS FROM NOW           
 TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM TEMPS THAT WERE NOT AFFECTED BY MID            
 CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH SOME 50S FURTHER BACK IN            
 W/SW MO SO WILL BLEND MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND GO AROUND 45 NE AND NEAR            
 50 SW.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 SIMILAR SCENARIO BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM-WRF FOR TOMORROW                      
 NIGHT...BUT A DIFFERENCE LIES WITHIN THE RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN THE              
 TWO. GFS OF COURSE IS SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE/MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE             
 NAM-WRF IS...BUT WITH HIGH GUIDANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW                          
 NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PAST FEW MODEL RUNS SHOWING            
 THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR               
 TOMORROW NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE           
 WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ON           
 FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME MAY LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED            
 BUT KEPT LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE TIME BEING. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT THE              
 TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...DECREASING THE RAIN CHANCES.           
 ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY COULD TAKE ON A DIFFERENT FORM...BUT THIS               
 FAR OUT DID NOT WANT TO TRY AND GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPES AND WHERE           
 AT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO BE AROUND           
 THE FREEZING MARK...SOME EVEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WHAT FORM            
 THE PRECIP WILL TAKE TRICKY. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE THE TYPE OF             
 PRECIP FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THAT IS IN THE FORECAST             
 BUT DID MODIFY POPS A LITTLE TO SHOW A LESSER PRECIP CHANCE FOR                
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN THERE           
 HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL TIMING CHANGES/DIFFERENCES FOR THE LOW TO EJECT           
 OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK. SO NO CHANGES            
 FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT IS LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BE             
 WET WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SURFACE TROUGH TO              
 OUR SOUTHEAST...THEN ANOTHER LOW TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN             
 ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW IS CURRENTLY             
 PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND THEN ON TO THE NORTHEAST              
 DURING MONDAY. DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIP TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT YET             
 EVEN THOUGH ITS LOOKING LIKE THE REAL COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE CWA               
 WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE DAYTIME MONDAY...NOT LOOKING COLD ENOUGH IN              
 THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR ALL SNOW UNTIL MONDAY. THEN DECENT FETCH           
 DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO TAKE SHAPE.            
 THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THEN LOOK LIKE THEY COULD CONTINUE                
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON                
 WEDNESDAY AND CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL END. BUT LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE HAVE               
 BEEN TIMING CHANGES IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SO MADE NO CHANGES             
 FOR THEN FOR NOW.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM EST THURSDAY                            
      FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...MURPHY                                                              
 SHORT TERM...LOGSDON                                                           
 LONG TERM....LOTHAMER                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 330 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH STATE AS OF 03Z WITH STRONG PUSH OF COLD           
 AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MILD AIR IN THE 50S CONTINUES SOUTH OF           
 THE FRONT WITH SUBZERO TEMPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 IN THE           
 DAKOTAS. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN MT ATTM WITH                 
 GREATEST PRESSURE RISES JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND           
 KANSAS. IA REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW STRATUS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW               
 COUNTIES ATTM. A FEW FLURRIES REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TOO.            
 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONTAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN MN            
 ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPEST COLD AIR. ONLY SLIGHT REFLECTION                 
 CURRENTLY SEEN AT SFC. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF            
 SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW STRATUS. CURRENT 11-3MU SHOWS SOME               
 SOUTHWARD DRIFT BUT NOT MUCH. LARGER SCALE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                 
 STILL SHOWS WESTERN TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AT THE            
 BASE OF THE TROUGH THOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF ENERGY ONGOING ATTM.               
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY...SUN NIGHT)...MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT TODAY TO            
 BEGIN BREAKING UP CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON              
 HOURS. NAM12 AND RUC MODELS ARE MORE ADAMANT ABOUT HOLDING ONTO THE            
 CLOUD COVER WHILE NAM/GFS PREFER TO BREAK THINGS UP A BIT. CLOUD               
 TRENDS SUPPORT SOME PC SKIES LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE            
 STILL HOLDS ONTO CLOUD COVER. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH                      
 APPROACHING JET MAXES WILL LIKELY INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER             
 IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EVEN IF BREAKS OCCUR THROUGH EARLY                    
 AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY           
 INTO EARLY MONDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE              
 FLOW. MODELS ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE THEM WITH SOME DIFFICULTY BUT THE           
 GFS PICKS UP ON ONE OVERNIGHT TNT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                 
 SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT WITH FLURRIES OR OR LIGHT                
 FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TNT WITH NAM SOUNDINGS DRYING OUT FASTER             
 THAN THE GFS SOUNDINGS. WITH MAIN WAVE NOW COMING INTO PLAY LATER IN           
 DAY ON SUNDAY...AM HOLDING OFF ON GREATER QPF AND SNOWFALL FOR THAT            
 PERIOD AS QG FORCING ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH             
 LIFTS OVER THE STATE...DEFORMATION ZONE FORMS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM           
 WHICH SHOULD HELP PROLONG SNOWFALL INTO THE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.            
 BLOWING SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM WITH COLD TEMPS AND                 
 LIGHTER FLUFFY VARIETY EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EURO/GFS AND GEM SEEM TO            
 HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.                  
 PROBLEM REMAINS THE AMT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH VARIES FROM               
 ABOUT A HALF INCH WITH THE GFS TO NEARLY THREE QUARTERS WITH THE               
 GEM. WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE BEST PERIOD OF                        
 SNOWFALL...HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS EVEN .30 TO .40 WILL PROVIDE              
 FOR AMTS OVER 6 INCHES. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO DETAILS OF PATH AND             
 QPF...DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ISSUING A WATCH YET...BUT IF THE NEXT 2              
 RUNS CONFIRM THE PRESENT TRENDS...WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY             
 LATER SUNDAY INTO THE NIGHT HOURS. SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY                  
 MORNING WITH SOME BLOWING.                                                     
 .EXTENDED (MON...THUR)...COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY             
 WARM UP UNTIL MID WEEK. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT BY THE              
 END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. CERTAINLY THE COLDEST TEMPS IN QUITE SOME           
 TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO MON NIGHT/TUES NIGHT               
 OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS ESPECIALLY. OF COURSE...ALL DEPENDS ON DEPTH           
 OF SNOWPACK AND STORM THIS WEEKEND.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 REV                                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 900 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CONUNDRUM THIS EVE CENTERS AROUND FRZG DRZL POTENTIAL AND FATE OF              
 CURRENT ADVY.  LG WV TROUGH SETTLING INTO WRN CONUS WITH BROAD SWLY            
 FLOW AHEAD INTO PLAINS.  120+KT JET SEGMENT NOTED FROM KS INTO UPPER           
 OH RIVER VALLEY WITH LARGE PCPN SHIELD ON LEADING EDGE.  SHRT WV               
 WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING THROUGH MID/UPR MS VALLEY INTO GREAT               
 LAKES PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE E.  LITTLE DEEP UVM OR QG             
 FORCING NOTED OVER IA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME TO OUR N AS SHRT WV             
 EJECTS OUT OF NRN PORTION OF TROUGH.  SOME H85/H7 FN CONVERGENCE BUT           
 MOISTURE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR RESPONSE.                                          
 LGT RAIN/DRZL THAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING IN RADAR TRENDS LOOKS             
 TO BE DRIVEN BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND UVM IN SATURATED H9/H8 LAYER.            
 02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES CDFNT ACROSS SERN IA WITH SVRL EMBEDDED WVS.              
 CANNOT REALLY PICK OUT A PRIMARY ONE...BUT LATEST RUC PUSHES ALL               
 THESE LOW LEVEL MECHANISMS OFF TO THE EAST WITH 925MB TROUGH BY                
 06Z.  HOWEVER RUC ALSO LINGERS THIS SATURATED LAYER ALONG AND S OF             
 I80 THROUGH 06Z AND LINES UP WITH ECHOES TO OUR W.  OAX REPORTS                
 FLURRIES/FRZG DRZL HAVING MINIMAL EFFECT EVEN IN COLDER AIR THUS               
 WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FRZG DRZL OR FLURRIES GOING WHERE                  
 APPROPRIATE AS IT MOVES FROM W TO E...BUT DROP HEADLINE.  DO NOT               
 EXPECT CONDITIONS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED BY FRZG RAIN ADVY AND FRZG             
 DRZL ADVY IS NO LONGER A VALID HEADLINE.  BETTER LIKELIHOOD MAY EVEN           
 BE FARTHER N INTO COLDER AIR OUTSIDE OF CURRENT HEADLINE...BUT NOT             
 SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT NEW ONE.  WET ROADS MAY START                    
 FREEZING FROM EXISTING MOISTURE TOO AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.               
 IEM FREEZE APP HAS SUB-FRZG ROAD TEMPS ALG AND NW OF                           
 ADAIR-BOONE-IOWA FALLS LINE AND SLOWLY ADVANCING SE.  WILL HIT HARD            
 IN NOWCASTS THAT SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP...BUT LIKELY NOT                      
 AGGRAVATED MUCH BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.                                        
 ALSO DROPPED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT MORE AGGRESSIVE                  
 COLD/DRY ADVECTION.  02Z SFC ANLYS ALSO SHOWED WIDESPREAD                      
 SIGNIFICANT PRES RISES BEHIND CFP.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SMALL                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 1133 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 COLD AIR HAS REALLY SURGED INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUES               
 ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOWEST 3000FT OR              
 SO OF THE SOUNDINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE BELOW -6.6C...THE              
 CRITICAL TEMPERATURE AND DEPTH TO BE ABLE TO GET SNOW CRYSTALS                 
 DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TEMPERATURES                  
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW MORE                            
 DEGREES...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS REGION TO REMAIN               
 SNOW. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECT             
 MORE OF A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW             
 MIXED IN AT TIMES. MADE THESE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED              
 TEMPERATURES TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE QUICKER ARCTIC AIR                  
 INTRUSION.                                                                     
 SCHRECK                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL TAKE              
 PLACE.                                                                         
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO              
 PLUNGE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW                
 DROPPED WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES            
 FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE                     
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE              
 NEXT CONCERN IS SOME PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN           
 OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING               
 THROUGH THAT REGION WHICH IS DISPLAYED ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE.              
 THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID             
 MORNING WHICH COULD BRING SOME ICY CONDITIONS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST             
 OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS                   
 POINT...BUT I WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF SOME FOLKS SEE A TENTH TO TWO             
 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE FOR THE GROUND           
 TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING HAPPENS. THE             
 NAM-WRF SOLUTION IS EVEN SHOWING SOME LIFT DEVELOP DURING THE                  
 AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF           
 PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION           
 DUE TO SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. AT FIRST GLANCE...WE FELT CONFIDENT                
 ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH             
 CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS            
 THEY ARE ADVERTISING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING WHICH WILL INCREASE            
 THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
 MENTION A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
 TURNPIKE WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER              
 WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z.                                            
 TONIGHT:                                                                       
 WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW                
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERTURBATIONS IN                     
 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER WAVE MOVING             
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE NOT                  
 SHOWING MUCH SUPPORT IN THIS. WE ARE GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE FOR NOW             
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IF              
 ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP THEN WE COULD SEE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION               
 DEVELOPING MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH               
 MORE FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.                           
 SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING             
 TO DIG. THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE                  
 POSITION OF THIS TROF TOWARDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE             
 IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS SOUTH                 
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. CENTRAL KANSAS COULD              
 STILL SEE SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL TOO DIFFICULT            
 TO TELL AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                      
 MONDAY-TUESDAY:                                                                
 THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING               
 THESE TWO DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT DRY.               
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    16   9  22  19 /  70  60  70  80                               
 HUTCHINSON      13   8  20  16 /  50  60  70  80                               
 NEWTON          14   8  21  19 /  60  60  70  80                               
 ELDORADO        17  10  22  18 /  80  60  70  80                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  12  25  20 /  90  60  70  80                               
 RUSSELL         11   6  14  11 /  10  60  70  80                               
 GREAT BEND      11   6  16  13 /  10  60  70  80                               
 SALINA          12   7  16  15 /  20  60  70  80                               
 MCPHERSON       13   8  18  16 /  50  60  70  80                               
 COFFEYVILLE     23  14  26  23 / 100  60  70  80                               
 CHANUTE         19  11  25  21 / 100  60  70  80                               
 IOLA            18  11  25  21 / 100  60  70  80                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  12  26  22 / 100  60  70  80                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-                
 095-096-098>100.                                                               
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                   
 AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.              
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ051-              
 052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                   
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-               
 069-070-093-094.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 321 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL TAKE              
 PLACE.                                                                         
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO              
 PLUNGE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW                
 DROPPED WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES            
 FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE                     
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE              
 NEXT CONCERN IS SOME PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN           
 OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING               
 THROUGH THAT REGION WHICH IS DISPLAYED ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE.              
 THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID             
 MORNING WHICH COULD BRING SOME ICY CONDITIONS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST             
 OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS                   
 POINT...BUT I WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF SOME FOLKS SEE A TENTH TO TWO             
 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE FOR THE GROUND           
 TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING HAPPENS. THE             
 NAM-WRF SOLUTION IS EVEN SHOWING SOME LIFT DEVELOP DURING THE                  
 AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF           
 PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION           
 DUE TO SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. AT FIRST GLANCE...WE FELT CONFIDENT                
 ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH             
 CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS            
 THEY ARE ADVERTISING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING WHICH WILL INCREASE            
 THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
 MENTION A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
 TURNPIKE WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER              
 WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z.                                            
 TONIGHT:                                                                       
 WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW                
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERTURBATIONS IN                     
 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER WAVE MOVING             
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE NOT                  
 SHOWING MUCH SUPPORT IN THIS. WE ARE GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE FOR NOW             
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IF              
 ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP THEN WE COULD SEE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION               
 DEVELOPING MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH               
 MORE FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.                           
 SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING             
 TO DIG. THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE                  
 POSITION OF THIS TROF TOWARDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE             
 IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS SOUTH                 
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. CENTRAL KANSAS COULD              
 STILL SEE SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL TOO DIFFICULT            
 TO TELL AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                      
 MONDAY-TUESDAY:                                                                
 THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING               
 THESE TWO DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT DRY.               
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    22  15  22  19 /  30  60  70  80                               
 HUTCHINSON      19  14  20  16 /  30  60  70  80                               
 NEWTON          21  14  21  19 /  30  60  70  80                               
 ELDORADO        23  16  23  18 /  40  60  70  80                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   25  18  25  19 /  40  60  70  80                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14  10 /  20  60  70  80                               
 GREAT BEND      15  11  16  13 /  20  60  70  80                               
 SALINA          17  14  16  15 /  20  60  70  80                               
 MCPHERSON       19  13  18  16 /  20  60  70  80                               
 COFFEYVILLE     32  23  26  23 /  80  60  70  80                               
 CHANUTE         29  21  25  21 /  70  60  70  80                               
 IOLA            28  20  25  21 /  70  60  70  80                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    30  22  26  22 /  80  60  70  80                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-               
 069>072-093>096-098>100.                                                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                        
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ051-              
 052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 948 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 VERY INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AND                    
 TONIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEARTLAND OF THE                  
 COUNTRY FROM NEAR DETROIT TO INDY TO DALLAS PRODUCING A MONSTER                
 ICE STORM...FOR US HERE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL                  
 INDIANA WE WILL JUST SEE LIQUID PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                  
 TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH              
 OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTEN             
 SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE                 
 SHRINKING TO LESS THAN 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE               
 BLUEGRASS REGION LAGGING SOME HERE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL TRYING TO              
 TOP 50. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z RUC AND THE 00Z NAM ARE             
 KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE STEADY AND HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS                   
 MO/IL/IN WITH THE EDGE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES. SOME                
 LIGHT PRECIP WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE                     
 FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE LOWERED               
 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE 50               
 TO 60 RANGE AS THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING...SEEN IN THE 700                    
 OMEGAS...REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE                  
 OVERNIGHT STARTING TO SAG SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS             
 WE APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY. THE CURRENT 00Z NAM HAS INITIALIZED WELL             
 PICKING UP ON THE DEVELOPING PRECIP NEAR THE MS RVR AROUND THE                 
 AR/MS BORDER AND SHOW IT MOVING ALONG THE MS RVR AND THEN TURNING              
 MORE TOWARDS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST              
 AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE                
 UNLIKELY BEFORE THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST                         
 AREA...THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUCH IS STILL VERY HIGH ON                   
 SATURDAY...AND ON INTO MONDAY SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE                 
 ACROSS THE REGION.                                                             
 SCHOTT                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
 THE FLOOD WATCH KICKS IN TONIGHT ACRS OUR ENTIRE FA...HOWEVER                  
 SIGNIFICANT RAINS SHUD BE CONFINED TO OUR NRN FA TNGT (SRN                     
 INDIANA)...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS CENTRAL KY. HEAVIER RAINS WILL            
 DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KY SAT.                                                     
 EVOVING TROF/UPR LO...EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO SRN                          
 CA...PROGRESSES VERY SLOWLY EWD THRU THE PERIOD WITH AXIS PROGGED              
 FROM WYOMING TO THE CA/AZ BORDER BY 00Z SUN...RESULTING IN BROAD               
 MOIST SW FLO CONTINUING ACRS THE LOWER OH VLY.                                 
 CDFNT...WHICH PASSED STL AT 18Z...WILL MAKE STEADY SLOW PROGRESS               
 SEWD TIL SAT MRNG...REACHING NEAR A LINE FROM SOUTH OF PAH TO                  
 LOUISVILLE AND NEWD NEAR THE OH RIVER TO CVG. WAVY FRONT THEN                  
 BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY SAT...LIKELY STALLING ACRS CENTRAL KY. THIS            
 IS BASICALLY A GFS FCST WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/NCEP IN SUPPORT.                 
 AT THE PRESENT...LO LVLS ARE STILL SATURATING AND RAINS HAVE BEEN              
 LIGHT. THE MOIST COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TNGT AND SAT WITH              
 FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS             
 TNGT ACRS SCNTRL INDIANA AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU THAT PART OF OUR              
 FORECAST AREA...WITH MODEL QPF SPITTING OUT ONE HALF TO ONE INCH               
 AMOUNTS. LO LVL SWLY FLO WILL BE PERSISTENT ALONG THE                          
 FRONT...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE                        
 BOUNDARY.                                                                      
 HEAVIER RAINS WILL SHIFT SWD WITH THE FRONT SAT INTO CENTRAL                   
 KY...AGAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM ONE HALF TO ONE                 
 INCH.                                                                          
 STREAM LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB OVER SCNTRL INDIANA LATE TNGT INTO           
 SAT. DITTO FOR CENTRAL KY STREAMS SAT. THE PRIMARY FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD           
 THREAT WILL BEGIN SAT NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT SUN INTO SUN             
 NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH 72 HR TOTALS WITH LOCALLY           
 HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES AS STATED IN OUR FLOOD WATCH AND            
 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...MOST OF THE RAINFALL AFTER SAT.  GREATER           
 DETAIL FOLLOWS BELOW...                                                        
 KIRKPATRICK                                                                    
 LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
 ..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH               
 MONDAY MORNING...                                                              
 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                         
 LATEST SUITE OF SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT             
 ONGOING FCST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.  FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...THE            
 FORECAST SETUP IS A CLASSIC TEXTBOOK EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLOOD EVENT THAT           
 OCCURS IN THE OHIO VALLEY.  COMBINATION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL            
 BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMUMA WILL               
 BRING PERIODS OF RAINS TO THE REGION.  THE MORNING WRF AND GFS RUNS            
 CONTINUE TO SHOW AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY                      
 TRANSLATING SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  BY            
 SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW DECENT SFC WAVE RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT            
 THAT WILL SIMPLY ADD MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE FOR THE RAINS.  AS THIS             
 WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WILL                
 OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS                   
 LACKING...STRONG FORCING FROM SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS           
 LARGE SCALE FORCED ASCENT FROM APPROACHING SFC WAVE WILL BRING                 
 PERIODS OF HEAVIER/CONVECTIVE RAINS TO THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY                
 AFTERNOON/EVE.  ADDITIONALLY TOTAL-TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO            
 THE UPPER 40S AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO               
 KEEP SCT THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE            
 MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.                                                          
 AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TOTAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO            
 4 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME LOCALLY               
 HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS.             
 THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.  GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF             
 RAINFALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT               
 THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.                                                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL              
 BOUNDARY WILL BE BISECTING THE REGION.  THE WRF AND GFS FRONTAL                
 SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE WRF IS SLIGHTLY                 
 FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.  THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO IT BEING               
 ABLE TO HANDLE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN            
 THE GFS.  IN A NUTSHELL...A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH           
 HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE           
 MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.                                          
 AS SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY            
 MONDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY.                   
 MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AS                      
 PRECIPITATION EXITS.  THEREFORE...THE IDEA OF RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING            
 TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.  AT THIS             
 TIME...A CHANGE OVER IN OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LOOKS                     
 REASONABLE.  A CHANGEOVER IN THE LOUISVILLE AREA WOULD COMMENCE IN             
 THE AFTERNOON AND IN OUR EAST...IT WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING.              
 HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING           
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  GENERALLY WILL TREND TEMPS CLOSE TO THE RAW 2M            
 GFS OUTPUT.                                                                    
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  WITH                
 FRONT CONTINUING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE           
 UPPER PLAINS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GET THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MACHINE           
 GOING TO OUR NORTH.  DOWN THIS FAR SOUTH...FEEL THAT SCT FLURRIES              
 WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE AS SUCH.             
 BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WOULD EXIST OVER FAR EAST KY IN THE                
 FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.  DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY            
 THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.            
 TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL             
 WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE             
 UPPER TEENS.  SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY                
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID            
 AND UPPER 30S.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH              
 THIS PERIOD.                                                                   
 -MJ                                                                            
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-             
      053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.                                          
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-             
      089>092.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1035 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...RUC AND LAPS ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT            
 IS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE MOST OF N LOWER. THE NW FLOW IN E UPPER             
 AND SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR            
 SHORELINE AT WHITEFISH POINT AND GRAND MARAIS SHOWING THAT THE COLD            
 AIR IS BEGINNING TO OOZE INTO THE REGION. MID 30S IS THE RULE OVER             
 MOST N LOWER WITH THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE                 
 AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH IN NW LOWER WITH RAWS            
 SITE BEAR(SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NEAR EMPIRE) AND GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT            
 SHOWING NORTH WINDS AND MOST OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES SHOWING NW                 
 WINDS. INTERIOR SITES AND NE LOWER SITES ARE EITHER CALM OR WINDS              
 LIGHT SW. HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED OR WILL BE REACHED SOON, SO THE              
 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY           
 AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AS THE COLDER 850 AIR, AND SPECIFICALLY THE            
 -10C LINE, ADVANCING INTO THE E UPPER AND N LOWER FOR THE AFTERNOON.           
 AS OF 15Z RUC40 ANALYSIS/1HR FORECAST -10C WAS THROUGH MOST OF                 
 WHITEFISH BAY TO CURTIS LINE AND ADVANCING STEADILY. 12Z NAM IS MUCH           
 SLOWER WITH THE -10C AIR AROUND MONTREAL RIVER, ONTARIO TO GRAND               
 MARAIS, MI LINE. WITH KERY ALREADY SHOWING SNOW/FLURRIES WOULD THINK           
 THAT THE 14Z RUC40 IS CLOSER TO REALITY. SO THINK THAT THE CURRENT             
 FORECAST TRANSITIONS OF SNOW/DRIZZLE ARE CURRENTLY GOOD, BUT SFC               
 TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                  
 LUTZ                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                           
 COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE SAULT...SW                
 ACROSS LAKE MI AND SE WI...TO MISSOURI. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS                  
 SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FORECAST AREA. AS                 
 EXPECTED...FREEZING PRECIP HAS HELD OFF THUS FAR AS SURFACE TEMPS              
 HAVE HELD ABOVE FREEZING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT IS FORECAST TO             
 DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...REACHING SE LOWER MI BY LATE THIS            
 AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SEWD BEHIND FRONT...FORECAST                  
 CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE/COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.                    
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...IR/WV LOOP SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                      
 DEEP/LAYERED MOISTURE UPSTREAM...SUGGESTING THAT ANY PRECIP THAT               
 FALLS TODAY WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH             
 NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY CONFINED             
 TO TEMPS OF -8C AND WARMER. CAA PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY             
 COOLER AIR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT                  
 DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER...WITH SOME                 
 PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IN ERN UPPER EARLY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL             
 TRANSITION TO SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                  
 HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN             
 SE AREAS...WHERE COOLER AIR ARRIVES LAST. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO              
 OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND                
 -12C. N/NW WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NW LOWER AND            
 E UPPER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING S                  
 THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR            
 3 KFT...AND 850-700 MB RH HOVERING AROUND 60%...DON/T EXPECT MUCH              
 ACCUMULATION.                                                                  
 SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO VICINITY OF OHIO RIVER AND STALL.           
 LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN COUPLED WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
 OF -12 TO -14C WILL SUPPORT MORNING FLURRIES EARLY NEAR LAKES                  
 MICHIGAN...HURON...AND SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE RIDGE                  
 DROPPING INTO NRN LOWER BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT FLURRIES TO END WITH             
 PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.                               
 SUNDAY...STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL S OF REGION...AS WAVES OF              
 ENERGY PUSH ENEWD ALONG FRONT SPREADING SOME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL             
 AND SRN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE           
 NRN LAKES AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. UPSHOT...              
 EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS              
 AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.                                                
 SMITH                                                                          
 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT                  
 SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT             
 THIS TIME...NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING                    
 FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN DIVERGING THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO           
 CANNOT PIN DOWN A MORE DEFINITIVE STORM TRACK AS OF THIS TIME. AS              
 MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING STORM           
 SYSTEM WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW NORTHERN MICHIGAN              
 SEES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH             
 WITH THE STORM TRACK...TAKING THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY...              
 THROUGH MARYLAND...THEN OFF INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.                        
 MEANWHILE...THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF KEEPS A NORTHERLY TRACK FROM             
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW              
 ENGLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD YIELD LESS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...              
 WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON LAKE EFFECT...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD PROVIDE              
 MORE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST              
 LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE SNOWFALL WOULD BE ENHANCED WITH 850MB TEMPS             
 STARTING OFF AROUND -8C...THEN FALLING RAPIDLY.  MODELS SEEM TO                
 AGREE ON KEEPING A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO               
 TUESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
 SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON                    
 COASTLINES. OTHERWISE...THE TREND IN OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE           
 DECLINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN                     
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 KAS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 412 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING            
 EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING OVER              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE            
 SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...BUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF              
 DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDING...NOT MUCH IS                
 OCCURRING WITH THEM. ONE OF THE SHRTWVS IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN              
 NEBRASKA...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT           
 REAR QUADRANT OF A 130KT JET MAX MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND           
 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS...HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BANDS OF LIGHT TO              
 MODERATE REFLECTIVITIES IN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...AGAIN WITH THE                 
 PRESENCE OF DRY AIR...VERY FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SNOWFALL.               
 CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF A COLD           
 FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW IN NORTHERN LAKE             
 SUPERIOR...ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.               
 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COLD             
 AIR FROM THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW READINGS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS               
 BELOW ZERO F OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND EVEN NEAR 20 BELOW F OVER CENTRAL           
 MANITOBA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD READINGS            
 IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN (PRESSURE NEAR 1040MB).                     
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SHRTWV OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER           
 TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MAKING MORE OF A PUSH               
 EASTWARD. THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND                 
 FRONTOGENESIS MENTIONED EARLIER...MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER             
 THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...               
 ACTUAL PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL. WAS NEARLY TEMPTED TO                 
 MENTION SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS MOISTENING UP              
 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS LOOKS TO OCCUR           
 AT THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...SO KEPT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE              
 MENTION OUT. ALSO...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THE COLDER AIR SEEN             
 OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO THE                    
 CWA...ALLOWING FOR SOME LES TO START UP. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND             
 LACK OF CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT. THEREFORE SNOW                   
 ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS FOR ALL OF TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE AN INCH OR              
 LESS. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA AS IT LOOKS LIKE             
 THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO GET THERE...AND ALSO MATCHES             
 BETTER WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OUT WEST           
 WHERE COLDER AIR MAKES IT IN FIRST.                                            
 ON FRI...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPLIT IN TWO AS A RESULT               
 OF A POLAR LOW DROPPING S THROUGH THE NUNAVUT REGION WHICH INDUCES             
 RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOTION ALLOWS FOR THE HIGH             
 PRESSURE AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO DROP DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS.                 
 NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG              
 COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...AS NOTED TOO BY 850MB TEMPS ON THE            
 GFS/NAM FALLING TO -16 TO -20C BY 00Z SAT. THEREFORE MOST IF                   
 NOT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH                 
 READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO                  
 ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT RIGHT NOW PICKLE               
 LAKE ONTARIOS DEWPOINT IS -17F. SO ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD AIR...THAT DRY AIR AND                    
 CONTINUED LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT AN             
 INCH OR LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH NO CONVERGENCE AREAS ANTICIPATED.               
 FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER           
 THE NUNAVUT AREA DROPPING INTO HUDSON BAY...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY             
 FLOW ALOFT AT 500MB OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE RESULT OF THE LOW                 
 DROPPING SOUTHWARD IS TO CAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE                 
 DAKOTAS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. IN FACT...BY 18Z SAT...THE MODELS                  
 SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL DROP S OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...LIGHT               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.             
 WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING...BEFORE THE WINDS TURN WSW AND PUSH            
 MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE WINDS               
 LIGHTENING DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FRI NIGHT...             
 LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE... ALLOWING           
 FOR SOME AREAS OF CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... SOUNDINGS                 
 CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (UNDER 5000FT) AND PLENTY OF            
 DRY AIR...SO EVEN CONVERGENT BANDS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH SNOW.               
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FRI NIGHT... ESPECIALLY GIVEN             
 THE COLD AIR THAT ENTERED THE CWA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS             
 ARE AROUND NORMAL. IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                 
 INTERIOR...SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY. RETURN FLOW SETTING            
 UP ON SAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT...BACK UP INTO            
 THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WARMING           
 TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z SUN.                                                     
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE              
 INTO NW QUEBEC SUN MORNING AND THEN INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BY 00Z MON. A            
 COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO             
 THE CWA SUN MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE               
 AREA WHICH BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE SUN. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE              
 FRONT SHOULD KEEP IT PRECIPITATION FREE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF            
 COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.                
 AGAIN...THE AIR SINCE IT IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL NOT HAVE MUCH                
 MOISTURE WITH IT...KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER              
 AIR IS HEADING INTO THE CWA...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -19C BY              
 00Z MON PER THE GFS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR             
 NORMAL DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LAKE SUPERIOR MODIFIED AIR               
 INTO THE CWA.                                                                  
 EXTENDED (MON THROUGH THU)...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD            
 AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING IN THE MEAN TROUGHING           
 TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH                    
 AMERICA...A TYPICAL WINTER TIME PATTERN.                                       
 AS THE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES OFF TO THE NE SUN                       
 NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLDER BUT              
 DRY AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. BY 00Z TUE...THE ECMWF SHOWS           
 850MB TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 6C FROM 00Z MON TO -19C. THEREFORE EXPECT            
 SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT NOTHING TOO HEAVY DUE TO THE              
 DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AS SEEN ON GFS SOUNDINGS. THIS               
 POOL OF COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO HEAD OFF TO THE E ON TUE AS A PORTION           
 OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE IS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL CANADA.              
 LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO TUE...BUT WITH A SURFACE                
 RIDGE MOVING IN RESULTING IN EVEN DRIER AIR AND LOWER INVERSIONS...            
 NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOWFALL. ON WED...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER                  
 CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AS A RESULT OF A               
 CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE 06Z             
 GFS/00Z ECMWF BOTH DEPICT THIS CLIPPER TO BE LOCATED OVER NW                   
 ONTARIO. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE BETTER LIFT STAYING NORTH OF LAKE              
 SUPERIOR...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM TUE...PREFER           
 NOT TO INSERT ANY POPS FOR THE CLIPPER. HOWEVER...WSW WARM AIR                 
 ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. BY 00Z             
 THU...THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING UP TO 10C...SO LAKE                 
 EFFECT WILL LIKELY NOT SHUT OFF BUT JUST RE-ALIGN TO THE WIND                  
 DIRECTION. FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
 CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS            
 THE CWA...SO KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THOSE. OVERALL                   
 THOUGH...THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH                
 PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO OCCUR.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1125 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THRU ONTARIO. AT THE            
 SFC...ASSOCIATED BROAD SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER FAR NRN             
 LAKE SUPERIOR. TROFFINESS HANGS BACK ACROSS NRN MN WITH ARCTIC AIR             
 JUST TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. FARTHER W...ARCTIC AIR IS               
 SURGING S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF            
 JET ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO RADAR RETURNS IN           
 NE MN...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN. LOW-LEVEL JET           
 HAS SHIFTED E OF FCST AREA...AND WITH BAGGY PRES GRADIENT                      
 DEVELOPING...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS MORNING.                   
 GOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND REQUIRES LITTLE IF ANY            
 CHANGE. AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES E THIS AFTN...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL            
 ALSO SHIFT E. GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS IN NE MN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE          
 QUESTION THAT A FEW -SHSN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR W TOWARD EVENING.           
 OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AFTN. CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD TOUGH              
 THRU THE AFTN...BUT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS ARE                 
 FAIRLY THIN ACROSS NRN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO           
 GET A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN 36-38F IN THE GOING FCST.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST                                       
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF BTWN            
 DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO 200M                
 THERE WITH SHRTWV DIGGING ALG THE PAC NW COAST) AND UPR RDG AXIS               
 MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO. STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS             
 MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA...WITH ONLY WEAK SFC LO OVER ERN ND JUST NW           
 OF FAR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV...            
 AND MQT VWP SHOWS S WINDS UP TO 55KT AT 3K FT MSL. GALE FORCE WINDS            
 OBSVD OVER LK SUP FM ISLE ROYALE TO STANNARD ROCK. STRONG WAD HAS              
 CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MID CLD DECK OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DRY           
 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOBS/ TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW BTWN H9-775 OR SO           
 HAS RESTRICTED SN FOR THE MOST PART TO THE COLD SIDE OF H85 WARM               
 FNT...LOCATED AT 00Z FM CKC-CMX-ERY...WHERE 0Z GFS F6 ALSO SHOWS               
 SOME UPR DVGC. LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC LO AND ALG              
 ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF STRETCHING TO THE SW AS 00Z BIS/ABR/MPX SDNGS           
 EXCESSIVELY DRY. MUCH COLDER AIR OBSVD OVER MT/ADJOINING AREAS IN              
 SRN CAN.                                                                       
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
 SHRTWV/SFC LO TO THE WNW TDAY AND THEN DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALF            
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV LATER AS VERY COLD AIR TO THE NW POISED             
 TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.                                                  
 FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO OVER NE MN THIS MRNG MOVING               
 ACRS NRN LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AS SHRTV NR LK WINNIPEG                 
 SHEARS ENE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO            
 THE CNTRL ZNS BY 00Z FRI. GIVEN EXCESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM AT            
 BIS/MPX/ ABR...PREFER THE DRIER NAM FCST (ZERO QPF) AS SHARPER                 
 ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/LINGERING UPR DVGC/DEEPER MSTR             
 EXIT EARLY THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO DRYING ALF/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC             
 BY 18Z. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNGS DEPICT THIS MID LVL DRYING QUITE              
 WELL ABV INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR. TDAY WL BE WARMEST DAY OF             
 NEXT WEEK AT LEAST AS SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF                
 ADVECTS WARMER AIR FM THE SW...WHERE HI TEMPS REACHED NR 40 OR SRN             
 MN ON WED...INTO THE FA.                                                       
 GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOW A STRIPE OF HIER MID LVL RH DVLPG OVER THE NRN              
 PLAINS THIS AFTN AND STREAKING ENE INTO THE WRN CWA LATE TDAY/TNGT/            
 FRI AS WAVES OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAXES/SHRTWVS SHEARING               
 ENEWD THRU WSW FLOW ALF IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN/SRN BRANCHES AS              
 WELL AS ACCOMPANYING H8-7 FGEN OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR TO             
 THE NW OF ARCTIC BNDRY NOW SEPARATING VERY COLD AIR IN MT/SRN CAN FM           
 WARMER AIR STILL IN THE NRN PLAINS/MN THAT IS FCST TO GRDLY OOZE SE            
 ACRS THE UPR LKS. THINK TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE WAVES WL BE               
 FRUITLESS ATTM...SO WL CARRY CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THRU FRI           
 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FGEN FORCING/POTENTIAL LES AS COLDER AIR GRDLY             
 OVERSPRDS THE FA. IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH HIER CHC POPS TO THE NW              
 EARLY IN THE PD AND GRDLY SHIFT THE HIER POPS TO THE SE AS ARCTIC              
 BNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE WITH TIME. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF COLD             
 AIR AS WELL AS NEUTRAL-ALMOST ACYC LARGER SCALE LLVL FLOW WOULD SUG            
 ANY LES WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE DESPITE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR BLO           
 SHALLOW INVRN (GFS/NAM SHOW INVRN BASE TEMPS APRCHG -20C OVER THE NW           
 BY LATE FRI). WL TEND TOWARD THE LO SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN HI              
 STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF ENCROACHING ARCTIC AIR.                            
 ON FRI NGT/SAT...UPR CONFLUENCE ZN PROGGED TO PUSH FAR ENUF S THAT             
 DRY ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE FA. WL DIMINISH POPS TO NO           
 HIER THAN 30 NR LK SUP ON LATE FRI NGT/SAT TO REFLECT INCRSGLY                 
 HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR LES. MADE A FEW CHGS TO THE SAT NGT/SUN PD TO           
 REFLECT TREND TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH THAT WL AT LEAST               
 DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF THE SW UPR TROF TO THE NE. IN GENERAL CUT             
 POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER NRN                
 BRANCH.                                                                        
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                               
 KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 330 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF BTWN            
 DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO 200M                
 THERE WITH SHRTWV DIGGING ALG THE PAC NW COAST) AND UPR RDG AXIS               
 MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO. STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS             
 MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA...WITH ONLY WEAK SFC LO OVER ERN ND JUST NW           
 OF FAR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV...            
 AND MQT VWP SHOWS S WINDS UP TO 55KT AT 3K FT MSL. GALE FORCE WINDS            
 OBSVD OVER LK SUP FM ISLE ROYALE TO STANNARD ROCK. STRONG WAD HAS              
 CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MID CLD DECK OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DRY           
 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOBS/ TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW BTWN H9-775 OR SO           
 HAS RESTRICTED SN FOR THE MOST PART TO THE COLD SIDE OF H85 WARM               
 FNT...LOCATED AT 00Z FM CKC-CMX-ERY...WHERE 0Z GFS F6 ALSO SHOWS               
 SOME UPR DVGC. LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC LO AND ALG              
 ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF STRETCHING TO THE SW AS 00Z BIS/ABR/MPX SDNGS           
 EXCESSIVELY DRY. MUCH COLDER AIR OBSVD OVER MT/ADJOINING AREAS IN              
 SRN CAN.                                                                       
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
 SHRTWV/SFC LO TO THE WNW TDAY AND THEN DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALF            
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV LATER AS VERY COLD AIR TO THE NW POISED             
 TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.                                                  
 FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO OVER NE MN THIS MRNG MOVING               
 ACRS NRN LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AS SHRTV NR LK WINNIPEG                 
 SHEARS ENE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO            
 THE CNTRL ZNS BY 00Z FRI. GIVEN EXCESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM AT            
 BIS/MPX/ ABR...PREFER THE DRIER NAM FCST (ZERO QPF) AS SHARPER                 
 ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/LINGERING UPR DVGC/DEEPER MSTR             
 EXIT EARLY THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO DRYING ALF/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC             
 BY 18Z. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNGS DEPICT THIS MID LVL DRYING QUITE              
 WELL ABV INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR. TDAY WL BE WARMEST DAY OF             
 NEXT WEEK AT LEAST AS SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF                
 ADVECTS WARMER AIR FM THE SW...WHERE HI TEMPS REACHED NR 40 OR SRN             
 MN ON WED...INTO THE FA.                                                       
 GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOW A STRIPE OF HIER MID LVL RH DVLPG OVER THE NRN              
 PLAINS THIS AFTN AND STREAKING ENE INTO THE WRN CWA LATE TDAY/TNGT/            
 FRI AS WAVES OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAXES/SHRTWVS SHEARING               
 ENEWD THRU WSW FLOW ALF IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN/SRN BRANCHES AS              
 WELL AS ACCOMPANYING H8-7 FGEN OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR TO             
 THE NW OF ARCTIC BNDRY NOW SEPARATING VERY COLD AIR IN MT/SRN CAN FM           
 WARMER AIR STILL IN THE NRN PLAINS/MN THAT IS FCST TO GRDLY OOZE SE            
 ACRS THE UPR LKS. THINK TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE WAVES WL BE               
 FRUITLESS ATTM...SO WL CARRY CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THRU FRI           
 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FGEN FORCING/POTENTIAL LES AS COLDER AIR GRDLY             
 OVERSPRDS THE FA. IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH HIER CHC POPS TO THE NW              
 EARLY IN THE PD AND GRDLY SHIFT THE HIER POPS TO THE SE AS ARCTIC              
 BNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE WITH TIME. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF COLD             
 AIR AS WELL AS NEUTRAL-ALMOST ACYC LARGER SCALE LLVL FLOW WOULD SUG            
 ANY LES WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE DESPITE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR BLO           
 SHALLOW INVRN (GFS/NAM SHOW INVRN BASE TEMPS APRCHG -20C OVER THE NW           
 BY LATE FRI). WL TEND TOWARD THE LO SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN HI              
 STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF ENCROACHING ARCTIC AIR.                            
 ON FRI NGT/SAT...UPR CONFLUENCE ZN PROGGED TO PUSH FAR ENUF S THAT             
 DRY ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE FA. WL DIMINISH POPS TO NO           
 HIER THAN 30 NR LK SUP ON LATE FRI NGT/SAT TO REFLECT INCRSGLY                 
 HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR LES. MADE A FEW CHGS TO THE SAT NGT/SUN PD TO           
 REFLECT TREND TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH THAT WL AT LEAST               
 DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF THE SW UPR TROF TO THE NE. IN GENERAL CUT             
 POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER NRN                
 BRANCH.                                                                        
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 8 AM EST.                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KC                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 747 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 UPDATED WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO SPREAD INTO A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES              
 OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC                 
 AIRMASS SURGES TO THE SOUTH/EAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MINNESOTA               
 RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...WITH A                
 DUSTING TO NEAR AN INCH POSSIBLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES/RIDES                
 SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED 25H JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN.                
 ALONG WITH THIS FORCING...00Z RUC INDICATING BAND OF 600 MB FULL               
 WIND FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AS             
 WELL. UPPED THE POPS THIS REGION TO LIKELY AND ADDED LESS THAN 1               
 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE NORTH OF             
 A LINE FROM NEAR KAXN-KLXL-KJMR.                                               
 $$                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 UPDATE...ADDED THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 COLD AIR POURING IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS SURE BEEN SCARCE                
 THIS SEASON. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE COLDER THAN SHORT              
 TERM MODEL TRENDS BUT LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. MIN TEMPS                  
 SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OR WEST COUNTIES. WIND               
 CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND               
 FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABRUPT CHANGE...WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY            
 FOR A FEW COUNTIES. WEAK WAVE STREAKING ENE ACROSS N CENTRAL SD                
 WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FAR N CWA MAINLY THIS EVENING.                   
 OTHERWISE KIND OF IN A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS               
 ENSEMBLE POPS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH KEEPING BEST CHANCES GENERALLY            
 SOUTH OF AREA UNTIL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IS ABOUT WHAT              
 WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR GRIDS. ECMWF SHOWING A HINT  OF A WEAK                
 WAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP               
 THE SMALL CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION             
 WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER..SO                  
 EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIP AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE             
 OF COLD NIGHTS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH..WITH MORE                      
 WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS. FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW SO SLIM CHANCE               
 OF PRECIP...THERE IS A HINT OF A WAVE IN NW FLOW ABOUT TUESDAY OR              
 WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.                                          
 AVIATION...21Z RUC SHOWING SATURATION/UPGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA                
 SURFACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL              
 WI. THIS CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS AT                     
 KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. BELIEVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESS...KMSP WILL              
 BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CEILINGS. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS LATE THIS              
 AFTERNOON WAS PROGRESSING EAST AT 7 KNOTS. KEPT KEAU DOWN THROUGH              
 LATE TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS            
 THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH NE MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN AREA             
 OF FORCING THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. KEPT                
 THE MENTION OF SNOW TO KAXN. INDICATED A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR                  
 CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KSTC AND KMSP AS THE                
 ARCTIC AIR SURGES IN. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA FOR ALL OF THE MN TAF                
 SITES INDICATES 20 TO 22 KNOT WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF               
 PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.                                     
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
      LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE                     
      COUNTY(IES).                                                              
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RAH/DWE                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 549 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...ADDED THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 COLD AIR POURING IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS SURE BEEN SCARCE                
 THIS SEASON. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE COLDER THAN SHORT              
 TERM MODEL TRENDS BUT LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. MIN TEMPS                  
 SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OR WEST COUNTIES. WIND               
 CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND               
 FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABRUPT CHANGE...WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY            
 FOR A FEW COUNTIES. WEAK WAVE STREAKING ENE ACROSS N CENTRAL SD                
 WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FAR N CWA MAINLY THIS EVENING.                   
 OTHERWISE KIND OF IN A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS               
 ENSEMBLE POPS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH KEEPING BEST CHANCES GENERALLY            
 SOUTH OF AREA UNTIL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IS ABOUT WHAT              
 WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR GRIDS. ECMWF SHOWING A HINT  OF A WEAK                
 WAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP               
 THE SMALL CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION             
 WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER..SO                  
 EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIP AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE             
 OF COLD NIGHTS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH..WITH MORE                      
 WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS. FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW SO SLIM CHANCE               
 OF PRECIP...THERE IS A HINT OF A WAVE IN NW FLOW ABOUT TUESDAY OR              
 WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...21Z RUC SHOWING SATURATION/UPGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA               
 SURFACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL              
 WI. THIS CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS AT                     
 KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. BELIEVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESS...KMSP WILL              
 BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CEILINGS. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS LATE THIS              
 AFTERNOON WAS PROGRESSING EAST AT 7 KNOTS. KEPT KEAU DOWN THROUGH              
 LATE TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS            
 THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH NE MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN AREA             
 OF FORCING THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. KEPT                
 THE MENTION OF SNOW TO KAXN. INDICATED A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR                  
 CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KSTC AND KMSP AS THE                
 ARCTIC AIR SURGES IN. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA FOR ALL OF THE MN TAF                
 SITES INDICATES 20 TO 22 KNOT WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF               
 PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY            
      FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT                     
      COUNTY(IES).                                                              
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPR/RAH                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 1110 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 /18Z TAF CYCLE/...DIFFICULT FORECAST CEILING WISE...WITH POCKETS               
 OF EITHER 1-1.5KFT CEILINGS OR 10KFT CEILINGS SCATTERED THROUGH                
 THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE TREND OF BRINGING A BRIEF               
 BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL /AND LOWER/ STRATUS             
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT...AS THE BRUNT OF             
 THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL                   
 REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER                        
 GUSTS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS             
 INTO AXN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...UNDER A REGION OF Q-VECTOR                        
 CONVERGENCE...HIGHER SREF POPS...AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE               
 DEFICITS. THE ONLY OTHER TAF SITE THAT MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION              
 LATE TONIGHT IS EAU...THAT BEING OF THE FLURRY OR FREEZING DRIZZLE             
 VARIETY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO                    
 INCLUDE. WILL PASS ON TO ONCOMING SHIFT...HOWEVER...FOR THE 00Z                
 ISSUANCE.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SANS THE                    
 EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MANY                  
 LOCATIONS HAVE MET THEIR DAILY HIGHS ALREADY...WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
 AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS             
 FEATURE A STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...MIRRORING THE                  
 TREND IN THE 06Z MAV. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT ERRATIC...WITH A FEW                
 AREAS OF STRATOCU IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCT TO              
 OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. LARGER AREA OF STRATOCU LOCATED             
 IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                  
 CURRENTLY SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWARD SPREAD AS MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL             
 COLD ADVECTION MOVES SOLIDLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH                    
 SUPPORTS THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WE HAVE OUT THERE                
 CURRENTLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE              
 NORTHWEST ALSO LOOKS GOOD...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FEATURED ON THE              
 09Z SREF...AND A PRONOUNCED AREA OF 500 TO 300 MB Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K                 
 SURFACE ON THE 12Z RUC/NAM. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE.                
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/NW WI BORDER AT 10Z.                     
 PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE ENE THIS MORNING AND DRAG                 
 COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TEMP TRENDS             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS ROSE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
 CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY SINCE AS AXIS OF               
 WARMEST H85 TEMPS ENTERED THE EASTERN CWA. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO           
 THE NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS PAST FEW HOURS             
 AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE INDICATED                
 THIS IN THE GRIDS...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST                   
 HALF...WITH STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE                  
 MOVING NE INTO KANSAS HELPS TIGHTEN TEMP GRADIENT AND INHIBITS                 
 COLDER AIR ACROSS NRN PLAINS FROM BLASTING IN. NEXT CONCERN WILL               
 BE LOW PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE                
 AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AS MOISTURE RIDES UP INTO                   
 WISCONSIN AND IOWA AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NW MO THRU                
 CENT WI. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS                     
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA AS               
 MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
 WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE. WITH                
 LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE                     
 GROUND...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. HAVE ALSO                
 INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SOUNDINGS             
 INDICATE MOIST INVERSION WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT.              
 COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS SFC      
 LOW PRES PULLS OFF INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SAG               
 SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VERY COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO                     
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEEING A SLOWING TREND IN THE MODELS WITH            
 THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN           
 TO FAST WITH THE EJECTION OF PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST U.S. LOWS THIS                 
 SEASON AND AM SEEING THIS AGAIN WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. CANADIAN             
 GLOBAL MODEL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH A              
 SOLUTION THAT REFLECTS THE TREND THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WORKING            
 TOWARDS. CANADIAN INDICATES THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER KS/NE           
 BY 12Z MONDAY AND MAKE PROGRESS ENE ACROSS IA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS             
 WOULD SET UP PRECIPITATION THAT MAY EFFECT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN           
 CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THIS TIME           
 FRAME. FIRST IS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF MAIN UPPER            
 LOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE COMES TO FRUITION IT MAY WORK TO             
 KICK THE LOW OUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AND                
 SPREAD PRECIP FURTHER INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GFS AND                 
 CANADIAN DEPICTION OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING DOWN               
 THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTERACTING WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN CLOSE            
 PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYED OUT AT THE BEGINNING           
 OF THE MONTH.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KAT/MDB                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 936 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SANS THE                    
 EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MANY                  
 LOCATIONS HAVE MET THEIR DAILY HIGHS ALREADY...WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
 AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS             
 FEATURE A STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...MIRRORING THE                  
 TREND IN THE 06Z MAV. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT ERRATIC...WITH A FEW                
 AREAS OF STRATOCU IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCT TO              
 OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. LARGER AREA OF STRATOCU LOCATED             
 IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                  
 CURRENTLY SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWARD SPREAD AS MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL             
 COLD ADVECTION MOVES SOLIDLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH                    
 SUPPORTS THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WE HAVE OUT THERE                
 CURRENTLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE              
 NORTHWEST ALSO LOOKS GOOD...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FEATURED ON THE              
 09Z SREF...AND A PRONOUNCED AREA OF 500 TO 300 MB Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K                 
 SURFACE ON THE 12Z RUC/NAM. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE.                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/NW WI BORDER AT 10Z.                     
 PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE ENE THIS MORNING AND DRAG                 
 COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TEMP TRENDS             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS ROSE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
 CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY SINCE AS AXIS OF               
 WARMEST H85 TEMPS ENTERED THE EASTERN CWA. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO           
 THE NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS PAST FEW HOURS             
 AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE INDICATED                
 THIS IN THE GRIDS...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST                   
 HALF...WITH STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE                  
 MOVING NE INTO KANSAS HELPS TIGHTEN TEMP GRADIENT AND INHIBITS                 
 COLDER AIR ACROSS NRN PLAINS FROM BLASTING IN. NEXT CONCERN WILL               
 BE LOW PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE                
 AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AS MOISTURE RIDES UP INTO                   
 WISCONSIN AND IOWA AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NW MO THRU                
 CENT WI. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS                     
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA AS               
 MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
 WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE. WITH                
 LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE                     
 GROUND...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. HAVE ALSO                
 INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SOUNDINGS             
 INDICATE MOIST INVERSION WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT.              
 COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS SFC      
 LOW PRES PULLS OFF INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SAG               
 SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VERY COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO                     
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEEING A SLOWING TREND IN THE MODELS WITH            
 THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN           
 TO FAST WITH THE EJECTION OF PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST U.S. LOWS THIS                 
 SEASON AND AM SEEING THIS AGAIN WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. CANADIAN             
 GLOBAL MODEL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH A              
 SOLUTION THAT REFLECTS THE TREND THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WORKING            
 TOWARDS. CANADIAN INDICATES THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER KS/NE           
 BY 12Z MONDAY AND MAKE PROGRESS ENE ACROSS IA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS             
 WOULD SET UP PRECIPITATION THAT MAY EFFECT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN           
 CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THIS TIME           
 FRAME. FIRST IS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF MAIN UPPER            
 LOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE COMES TO FRUITION IT MAY WORK TO             
 KICK THE LOW OUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AND                
 SPREAD PRECIP FURTHER INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GFS AND                 
 CANADIAN DEPICTION OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING DOWN               
 THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTERACTING WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN CLOSE            
 PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYED OUT AT THE BEGINNING           
 OF THE MONTH.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KAT/MDB                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 801 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED BOND...FAYETTE AND CLINTON COUNTIES TO               
 THE ICE STORM WARNING. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE            
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IT MOVES THE FREEZING LINE INTO THESE               
 COUNTIES BETWEEN 06-09Z. WHERE FREEZING RAIN HAS STARTED...MOST                
 LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A LIGHT GLAZE ON TREES AND SIGNS.             
 PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOSTLY SLEET NORTH OF A JEF-TROY MO-WHITE                
 HALL LINE...WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SLEET ACCUMULATION REPORTED              
 ALREADY IN QUINCY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. BASED ON THE RADAR              
 AND MODELS...STILL THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN OVER              
 THE SRN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA                
 WILL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES.             
 BRITT                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ICE STORM TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE GREATER              
 THAN AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION                
 UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                                                  
 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH FREEZING               
 TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING QUICK BEHIND. RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN            
 AND SLEET...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION OR GLAZING ALREADY REPORTED           
 ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OF THREE           
 DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION TAKING SHAPE...WITH LARGE                    
 PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA INTO                    
 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                            
 DECIDED TO UPDATE EVERYONE TO ICE STORM WARNING AROUND NOON                    
 TODAY...AS MODELS STILL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE COLD AIR INTRUSION.            
 UNBELIEVABLE...AT 130 PM KIRKSVILLE SITTING AT 18 DEGREES WITH A               
 DEWPOINT OF 16 DEGREES AND NORTH WIND OF 11KTS. SHOULD SEE FREEZING            
 LINE ENTER ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THIS EVENINGS RUSH               
 HOUR..AS OFFICE TEMPERATURE IN WELDON SPRING IS ALREADY 36 DEGREES.            
 STILL MAY NOT HAVE FREEZING LINE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH GIVEN UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE IF ICE WARNING                
 SHOULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH.                                              
 SIGNIFICANT ICING UP TO ONE INCH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH THE                 
 GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 70 AND 44                        
 CORRIDORS...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA. GIVEN WHAT              
 HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.                    
 A LITTLE RELIEF ON SATURDAY...AS ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ICE                     
 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FIRST WAVE EXITS..BUT                       
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE               
 SECOND WAVE ARRIVES WITH UP TO ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.           
 THE THIRD WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF ICE                   
 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN             
 BEHIND THIS FINAL WAVE WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.               
 GIVEN POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SOUTH OF            
 INTERSTATE 70 HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN                 
 COUNTIES AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST.                
 ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BELOW           
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.                                                  
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FIRST AND VERY SIGNIFCANT WAVE OF PCPN MOVING               
 THRU THE FA NOW. WITH VERY LARGE WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT...AND                 
 THIS IS INTERSECTING SHALLOW LAYER AND LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR              
 AT THE SURFACE...SO LOOK FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA TONIGHT.                 
 THIS FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EITHER LATE TONIGHT...FOR KUIN             
 AND KCOU TERMINALS...OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSTL/KSUS                   
 TERMINALS. AFTER THIS...PCPN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE FOR               
 REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.                                             
 LO CIGS OF MVFR AND IFR VARIETIES TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN THE                 
 CATEGORIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT DUE TO LIQUID PCPN...BUT              
 SHOULD SETTLE MORE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY LATER TONIGHT AND                  
 SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER PCPN WINDS DOWN OR STOPS.                          
 PCPN WAVE NUMBER TWO WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY                  
 AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT NOT BE AS HEAVY WITH THE QPF.                        
 TES                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR          
      CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-               
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AUDRAIN-            
      BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-                
      KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-               
      PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-                   
      WARREN-WASHINGTON.                                                        
 IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR          
      RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-           
      BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-              
      JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-                 
      PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 557 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 TOUGH FCST FOR FIRST MID SHIFT. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS               
 TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING                    
 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN               
 SLEET AND SOME SNOW ON THE TAIL END. THE MODELS STILL APPEAR TO BE             
 HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR               
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KUIN                
 AND KCOU IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND THE FREEZING LINE LAGS THE                 
 FRONT BY ONLY 75-80 NM. VERY MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE               
 DISPLACED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BY THE COLD ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES                
 SEWD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT             
 SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ST LOUIS AREA 15-17Z AND EXIT THE CWA NEAR             
 00Z. THE RUC ACTUALLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE WITH THE SURFACE                     
 TEMPERATURES AND THEY WERE LARGELY FOLLOWED THRU 18Z OR SO THEN                
 SOME EXTRAPOLATION WAS USED THRU 00Z TNGT. THE FREEZING LINE                   
 SHOULD RESIDE 25 NM OR SO NW OF STL AT 00Z. FROM THAT POINT ON THE             
 EXACT PUSH OF COLD AIR IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE            
 HAS THE FREEZING LINE WAVERING ON A NE/SW AXIS BI-SECTING OR JUST              
 SE OF KSTL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACTED BY SURFACE WAVES                   
 TRAVELLING ALONG THE FRONT.                                                    
 PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME IN 3 DISTINCT WAVES WITH THIS                   
 PROLONGED STORM SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST 2 ROUNDS               
 WITH BE VIA LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MODULATED BY               
 WK MID LVL DISTURBANCES. THE LAST ROUND WILL BE ASSOCD WITH THE                
 LIFTING MID-UPR SYSTEM.                                                        
 PCPN WITH THE FIRST ROUND IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE ATTM AND WE              
 SHOULD CONT TO SEE RAIN DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING                   
 FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.               
 RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH IN THE SAME             
 AREA GRADUALLY SHUNTING SE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND SHOULD THEN               
 GET GOING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FINAL ROUND ON SUNDAY INTO                
 SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE FREEZING AIR POISED JUST NW OF STL BY 00Z             
 TNGT I UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KCOU AND               
 KUIN AREAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED.           
 KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE CORIDOOR THRU THE STL METRO AREA DUE              
 TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WAVERING FREEZING LINE. FOR THE ENTIRE             
 3 DAY EVENT COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF TO THREE-                  
 QUARTERS OF AN INCH JUST SOUTH OF AN AXIS FROM KCOU TO KIJX.                   
 TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. STILL ANTICIPATING              
 SOME DECENT 2-3 INCHES RAINS ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL WHICH MAY                 
 PROMPT SOME SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING...AS SUCH HAVE KEPT                
 THE ESF GOING.                                                                 
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH UIN               
 AND COU AND SHOULD CONT MOVG SEWD THRU STL AND SUS ARND 18Z WITH               
 THE SFC WND VEERING ARND TO THE NW BHND THE CDFNT. STRATUS CLOUDS              
 ALONG WITH FOG HAVE DVLPD IN UIN AND COU BHND THE CDFNT. THIS LOW              
 LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ADVCT SEWD INTO THE STL METRO AREA LTR THIS              
 MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS AND WILL FCST FALLING CEILINGS FOR STL AND              
 SUS...DROPPING TO ARND 1000 FT BY AFTN. A SFC WV WILL DVLP ALNG                
 THE SEWD MOVG CDFNT BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA THIS AFTN AND TGT.                
 LOOKING AT THE MDL FCST SOUNDINGS THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD DROP TO               
 32 DEGREES F OR BLW IN UIN AND COU THIS AFTN CHANGING THE RAIN TO              
 FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE             
 OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE STL METRO AREA AS MDLS HAVE THE SFC               
 TEMPERATURE DROPPING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK TGT. WILL MENTION              
 A TEMPO GRP OF FREEZING RAIN IN STL AND SUS LT TGT AT THE END OF               
 THE TAF FCST PERIOD.                                                           
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR           
      CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS               
      CITY-WASHINGTON.                                                          
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GASCONADE-LINCOLN-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN.               
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-                  
      MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                 
 IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR           
      CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-                    
      MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL.                                     
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL.                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                          
 1023 AM PST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN           
 GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TODAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL            
 OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OCCURRING OVER           
 LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL            
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATED...MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING NOW THROUGH 2 PM FOR LAS               
 VEGAS VALLEY. RADAR DETECTING HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS IN SOUTHERN CLARK            
 COUNTY AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY. MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE LAS VEGAS            
 VALLEY LOOKING MORE UNLIKELY BUT WILL KEEP SNOW ADVISORY UP AND                
 CONCENTRATE WORDING MORE FOR SEARCHLIGHT...BOULDER CITY AND THE                
 HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM. WHILE                   
 UPDATING WILL ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS            
 OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA                  
 TONIGHT AND HARD FREEZE WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR           
 THE SAME LOCATIONS.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER THROUGH OUT THE REST OF THE                 
 MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND BRING CIGS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TO 7000           
 TO 6000 FT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THEY WILL BE BE LIGHT AND            
 BRING CIGS TO 4000 FT AND VIS TO 5 MILES AT WORST. HEAVIER SNOWS               
 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS WHERE           
 A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND               
 MIDNIGHT AND BE THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.                             
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...SO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. WILL HIT THE HIGH            
 POINTS HERE...THE INTERESTED READER MAY WANT TO REFER TO THE                   
 RNOWSWVEF...RNOSPSVEF...AND RNOHWOVEF PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS. IN            
 LINCOLN COUNTY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW BEGAN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN               
 EXPECTED. THE SHERIFFS OFFICE IN PIOCHE REPORTED SIX INCHES ON THE             
 GROUND AT 1 AM...SO UPGRADED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO A HEAVY SNOW                 
 WARNING. ALSO MOVED THE EXPIRATION TIME BACK FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO             
 10 PM THIS EVENING AS IT APPEARS THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 BY THEN. IN CLARK COUNTY...THE COLD FRONT ROLLED THROUGH LAS VEGAS             
 BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WERE                
 FALLING AS FAR SOUTH AS INDIAN SPRINGS...BUT WERE NOT MAKING IT                
 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM               
 WATCH IS A REAL CONUNDRUM. NAM...GFS...AND RUC MODELS ARE HINTING              
 MORE STRONGLY AT A DRY SLOT AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR               
 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO STILL SHOW SOME UPWARD MOTION              
 THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER IN OR NEAR THE -12C TO -18C "SWEET SPOT"             
 FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN              
 NORMAL WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT THE MIDPOINT OF THE POSSIBLE RANGE             
 OF OUTCOMES FALLS INTO THE SNOW ADVISORY CATEGORY...SO UPGRADED THE            
 WATCH TO AN ADVISORY. THE SNOW MAY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE            
 COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. IN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE MODELS ALL               
 SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE POSSIBLE DRY             
 SLOT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY THERE...AND            
 THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF           
 SATURDAY...THEN THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEAR SKIES COMES           
 ON SUNDAY MORNING. BIG QUESTION AFFECTING HOW COLD IT WILL GET IS              
 WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX BY THEN. IF THE WINDS                
 RELAX...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BOTTOM OUT...BUT IF THE WINDS ARE             
 STILL BLOWING THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE WORSE...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL            
 BE DANGEROUS TO UNSHELTERED FOLKS. SPS AND HWO HAVE BEEN/WILL BE               
 ISSUED FOR THIS. THE MOST RECENT EVENTS SIMILAR TO THIS ONE AT                 
 MCCARRAN AIRPORT WERE A LOW OF 23F ON JANUARY 31 2002...AND A LOW OF           
 20F ON DECEMBER 22 1998. IF MCCARRAN REACHES 23F AS FORECAST ON                
 SUNDAY MORNING...MANY PARTS OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WRAP           
 THOSE PIPES...DRIP THOSE FAUCETS...BRING THOSE PLANTS AND PETS                 
 INSIDE...ET CETERA.                                                            
 .LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY WILL BRING A              
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER           
 AND A FEW CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF              
 THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ZERO POPS IN THE FORECAST.                  
 RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES           
 TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND DAILY MORNING                    
 INVERSIONS. GFS IS SHOWING A LOW TO MOVE DOWN THE CA COAST AND                 
 EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF THE RIDGE AND FORM A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN           
 STATES. THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THE LOW EVENTUALLY TURNING           
 EAST AND PUSHING INTO THE CWA. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING                
 LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAINLY JUST AN                 
 INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY POPS INTO THE FORECAST             
 AND WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 .NV...SNOW ADVISORY ZONE 15 THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.                                
       SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 16 20 AND 22 THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.                     
 .AZ...SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 3 THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING.                  
 .CA...NONE.                                                                    
 $$                                                                             
 PIERCE/JACQUES/MORGAN/GORELOW                                                  
 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                    
</pre> nv                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                         
 925 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED                                         
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA AND EASTERN VA WILL               
 CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS             
 AFTERNOON. KEPT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON A CATEGORY BELOW THE LATEST           
 GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE WARM WITH THIS AIRMASS.               
 SOUNDING EXTRAPOLATIONS ALSO SUGGEST STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF             
 GUIDANCE UNDER NEAR FULL SUN.                                                  
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE MID TERM. AT THE SFC...AN EAST-WEST                
 RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM CWA FROM           
 THE HIGH CENTER LOCATED OFFSHORE FROM HAT. LATE TONIGHT AND                    
 FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A KINK IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD OFF THE                  
 CAROLINA COASTS...AKA INVERTED SFC TROF. SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT MAY BE              
 ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF LOW             
 LEVEL CLOUDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW                    
 MOISTURE...EXTENDING ONLY UP TO 850MB. AS A RESULT...WILL REMOVE               
 POPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA BUT LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE ADJACENT             
 OFFSHORE WATERS. SFC TROF TO DISSIPATE OR WASH OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.               
 FOR SATURDAY...WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY JUST NW OF THE ILM                
 CWA...CULD OBSERVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM PCPN              
 MOVING ALONG IT. WILL KEEP SOME TYPE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION           
 FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT REMAIN PCPN FREE. TEMPS WILL                 
 DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE WINDS. OVERALL...WILL           
 INDICATE A WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 70S LIKELY ON SATURDAY.               
 JUST ANOTHER SUMMER...I MEAN WINTER WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE ILM             
 CWA.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY ANOTHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE             
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
 AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL                 
 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN                    
 ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW A            
 COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A           
 SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT           
 SHOULD BE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT                  
 SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE AREA.                    
 AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD            
 OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS               
 WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...FALLING TO AS LOW AS -10           
 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY IF THE LATEST GFS IS CORRECT. MEANWHILE...A               
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE            
 OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO             
 COASTAL AREAS SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE               
 LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IF THE LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ARE ANY           
 CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A                     
 CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                   
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS             
 EAST...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE                  
 AFTERNOON. DID NOT PUT ANY FOG IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT                   
 HOURS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 5-6 SM BR RIGHT AT SUNRISE           
 WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED                                          
 PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RUC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO HOLDS              
 ONTO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW VERSUS VEERING IT DIRECTLY ONSHORE AS SOME             
 OF THE OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE. FEEL WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
 RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH             
 THAT THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. OTHERWISE...NO                
 MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.                                         
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 UPPER RIDGE AND ITS SFC COUNTERPART TO DOMINATE THE WX AND OCEAN               
 CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TERM. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL                
 DRIFT OFFSHORE FROM CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE FRIDAY. AM NOT ALL THAT              
 CONFIDENT WITH THE IDEA AND SOLUTION FROM VARIOUS MODELS WITH                  
 REGARDS TO THE SHALLOW SFC COASTAL TROF AND ITS POSSIBLE MOVEMENT              
 WESTWARD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED A LONGER PERIOD OF NE-E WINDS ON              
 FRIDAY WITH VEERING TO SE AND S DIRECTIONS THERE-AFTER. UNLIKE THE             
 NAM...THE GFS WANTS TO SUPPRESS THE SFC HIGH SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN           
 THE EAST TO WEST SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS.               
 THIS TO CAUSE A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH            
 THE SW-W WINDS UNTIL MODEL TREND/CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.           
 OVERALL...WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.                        
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY           
 FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ON            
 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS               
 COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE                        
 STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL                 
 WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT              
 MOVES OFFSHORE.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...PFAFF                                                             
 AVIATION...DL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 1033 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST               
 PERIOD ARE THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS... AS THE FORECAST AREA                   
 REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL AND             
 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY                      
 CRITERIA. HOWEVER... LATEST RUC SUGGEST A WEAKENING IN THE                     
 PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.              
 AS A RESULT... THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND STAY              
 BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM HAS BEEN WELL                          
 ADVERTISED...BUT CHOSE TO RAMP UP TO A WINTER STORM WATCH AS SOME              
 OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.                          
 A FEW CYCLES AGO...THE MODELS TRENDED TOWARD A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN             
 THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...AND THIS HAS NOT CHANGED. THE UPPER           
 LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE SHOWED IT              
 DROPPING ALMOST DUE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A COMPACT JET            
 DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 00Z                  
 INDICATED STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE BASE OF THE 700-500 MB                
 TROUGH AT 00Z...AND MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING THE CLOSED LOW           
 TOWARD NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY MORNING.                                   
 A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN TO                     
 DRAMATICALLY SPEED THE ARRIVAL OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON                 
 FRIDAY. THIS HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...BUT NOW IS APPEARING ALMOST A              
 SURE THING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN AIR WAS ALREADY INTO                
 NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT            
 THE FRONT TO REACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING AND I-44 AND BEYOND            
 BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS MAY STILL NOT BE FAST ENOUGH...BUT               
 THEY ARE STARTING TO CATCH ON. AND IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND           
 THE NAM WAS PREFERRED AS IT KEEPS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND HAS A              
 MORE REALISTIC PRESSURE PATTERN...NOT ALLOWING ANY STRONG                      
 CYCLOGENESIS OR SURFACE TROUGHS TO OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR AS THE GFS            
 HAS BEEN DOING.                                                                
 BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PRODUCE A LOT OF LIQUID PRECIP WHICH COINCIDES            
 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IS                   
 INCREASING TOWARD A MAJOR ICE STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION...WITH                
 EVERYONE SEEING AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING                    
 RAIN...BUT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MUCH MORE. THE HEAVIER ICE                   
 ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE                         
 OF INTERSTATE 44...AFFECTING THE METRO AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS TO             
 LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND INCLUDING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.                     
 EXPECTING THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ON               
 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SUB TROPICAL JET EJECTING OUT OF               
 NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF ENHANCED             
 WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR OF THE JET. THE SECOND EVENT            
 WILL COVER A LARGER AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE EJECTS FROM THE                
 ROCKIES. THROUGHOUT ALL THIS...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE AND               
 POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE RED RIVER UP THROUGH            
 CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING ALONG THE            
 RED RIVER IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT MUCH COLDER TOWARD WESTERN                
 NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL HOPE THAT THE HEAVIEST                  
 AMOUNTS END UP NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...BUT IF A WORST             
 CASE SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF ICE                      
 ACCUMULATION MEASURED IN INCHES. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME               
 GUSTY ON SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES              
 WEIGHTED DOWN BY THE ICE.                                                      
 NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  40  40  22 /  10  40  70  70                             
 HOBART OK         70  41  41  22 /  10  20  40  50                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  71  59  59  26 /  10  30  80  80                             
 GAGE OK           66  28  28  17 /   0  10  30  40                             
 PONCA CITY OK     59  35  35  19 /  10  30  50  50                             
 DURANT OK         60  60  62  34 /  20  40  80  80                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.                                         
 TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 67/23                                                                          
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 913 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATE IS MAINLY FOR EXTENDING THE ICE STORM WARNING ONE SET OF                
 COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY               
 AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF              
 A KBWD TO KSJT LINE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO             
 UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WITH                 
 DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN              
 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATING MAIN UPPER                  
 LEVEL TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO NEXT ROUND OF FZRA AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT                
 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 WIDESPREAD PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.           
 THE PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF FZRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE           
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR A KDFW-KBWD-KSJT LINE. THE FRONT             
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY             
 BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ON           
 SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN             
 FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA              
 ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO              
 OVC010 EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH                  
 14/00Z.                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  26  29  28  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  36  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  45  47  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR                 
 BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 618 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WIDESPREAD PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.           
 THE PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF FZRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE           
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR A KDFW-KBWD-KSJT LINE. THE FRONT             
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY             
 BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ON           
 SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN             
 FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA              
 ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO              
 OVC010 EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH                  
 14/00Z.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 .WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  26  29  28  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  36  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  45  47  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS              
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 ..WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                           
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
 ABILENE  27  32  30  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  37  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  48  53  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR.                                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                        
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                             
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  26  29  28  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  36  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  45  47  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR.                                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                        
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                             
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 27/27                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 ...WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                          
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
 ABILENE  27  32  30  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  37  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  48  53  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR.                                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                        
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                             
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/15                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 935 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE ONGOING                           
 PRECIPITATION HAVE ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON    
 COUNTIES FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 DESPITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HAVE EXTENDED WINTER STORM WATCH TO               
 THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE STERLING...COKE...RUNNELS ...COLEMAN AND                  
 BROWN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES ARE ON THE BORDER OF WHERE THE                  
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-FISHER-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-                    
 SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR.                                                   
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 904 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 DESPITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINITY HAVE EXTENDED WINTER STORM WATCH TO              
 THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE STERLING...COKE...RUNNELS ...COLEMAN AND                  
 BROWN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES ARE ON THE BORDER OF WHERE THE                  
 FREESING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-                    
 RUNNELS-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-                    
 THROCKMORTON.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-                    
 THROCKMORTON.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 10                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                  
 1153 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MAIN PROBLEM CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. THE               
 MODEL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FAIRLY                   
 WELL...MOS GUIDANCE WAS OKAY ON A SCALE OF NOT GOOD...OKAY...AND               
 GOOD. LIKED HOW THE RUC...NAM12...AND GFS ALL LINED UP THE BEST                
 LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY...              
 THEN FILLED IN THE CENTRAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                                
 THUS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z OVER                
 MOST OF THE SITES FROM HOU NORTH TO UTS AND WEST TO CLL. SGR AND               
 LBX MAY LAG AN HOUR TO 11Z AND GLS TO 14Z. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS             
 GOOD OVER THE INLAND SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND THE TWO BIG              
 AIRPORTS IN HOUSTON. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A DIFFICULT DAY. THE                 
 MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING SOME BRIEF VFR BREAKS DURING THE                 
 AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS                 
 REASONABLE IN BRINGING IN SEA FOG AT GLS DURING THE EVENING.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 CLOUDS INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED. SATELLITE DERIVED PW              
 SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE GULF AND THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN              
 THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THINK MIN TEMP FORECAST IS OK...BUT              
 WILL WATCH CLOUD TRENDS AND IF AN OVERCAST DEVELOPS...WILL LIKELY              
 RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TWEAK SKY                  
 COVER OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  67  62  73 /   0   0  10  20  40            
 HOUSTON (IAH)              66  51  69  61  73 /   0   0  10  10  20            
 GALVESTON (GLS)            63  57  69  62  71 /   0   0  10  10  20            
 &&                                                                             
 .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DISCUSSION...43                                                                
 AVIATION/MARINE...40                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1035 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO              
 DEVELOP THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING HAS MVFR CIGS               
 DEVELOPING BY 08Z FOR ACT AND 09Z FOR THE METROPLEX SITES. CIGS MAY            
 DROP AS LOW AS IFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN           
 THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BEST BEYOND            
 THIS TAF CYCLE.  /13                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 935 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 MINOR UPDATES TO TRENDS TONIGHT AND TO RAISE LOWS IN URBAN AREAS...            
 AND LOWER THEM IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES...AS LOW CLOUD COVER PER              
 RUC/NAM LOOK TO BE IN LINE WITH MOST STRATUS SLOW TO FORM THROUGH              
 06Z...BUT SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. THUS WE`LL CONTINUE TO              
 SEE TEMPS SLOWLY DROP ACROSS MOST AREAS...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN           
 RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORNING WITH THE STRATUS AND STRONG S/SELY                
 WNDS. ALSO ADJUSTED MSTR/RH/DEW PTS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL START            
 TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ATMOSPHERE              
 QUICKLY SATURATE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE PREDOMINANT...ALTHOUGH IFR            
 CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH WITH DAYBREAK AND            
 AGAIN EXPECT OVC MVFR THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...           
 WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASING             
 AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE BEYOND               
 THIS TAF SET.  /13                                                             
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 323 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 SOUTH WINDS HAVE QUICKLY RETURNED TO THE AREA WITH A LARGE REGION              
 OF 4-6 MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PART OF              
 THE COUNTRY. THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE IN THE                    
 OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS.             
 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BY SUNRISE AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM                
 THE SOUTH AND HIGH AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM              
 THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH FOR STREAMER SHOWERS               
 WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BY THURSDAY NIGHT.             
 BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS CAP ERODES AND                  
 MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE. SUBTLE LIFTING IS EVIDENT              
 ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY FAR AWAY              
 AND WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION FRIDAY. STILL DO EXPECT                   
 SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO THE LIKELY POPS                   
 ADVERTISED BY THE MAV MOS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.                             
 MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO MONTANA               
 BEHIND POWERFUL SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH               
 WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH               
 SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH IS THE                  
 PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND FREEZING RAIN             
 CHANCES OVER THE NW CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH                
 WILL TRY TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE                     
 EXTRAORDINARILY DENSE...AND A SHALLOW 50-100 MB DEEP LAYER OF                  
 ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. A GOOD                
 ANALOGY TO THIS PROCESS WOULD BE LIKE POURING WATER ON A TABLE                 
 WITH THE WATER SPREADING OUTWARDS. THE NAM MODEL TYPICALLY DOES A              
 BETTER JOB WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES...AND HAS THE FRONT                   
 MOVING THOUGH FASTER/STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SEE NO REASON             
 NOT TO FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST CLOSELY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD.                 
 WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND                     
 GRADUALLY MARCH SOUTH SATURDAY. WE HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE                 
 METROPLEX AT 9 AM SATURDAY...WACO AT 7 PM...AND FINALLY CLEARING               
 THE SE ZONES BY 3 AM SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL RAIN/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE             
 FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY            
 LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT. FREEZING TEMPS                
 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REACH             
 A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY                      
 LINGERING PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IT IS STILL TOO                  
 EARLY TO ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS...AND ANY                 
 SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TEMPS WOULD GREATLY AFFECT THE                
 ICE POTENTIAL.                                                                 
 THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE             
 DAY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS                     
 EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE COLD...AND STAY              
 RATHER CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 FOR LOWS               
 AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE              
 SLOWLY MODIFYING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WENT JUST A LITTLE COLDER              
 THAN 12Z MEX MOS FOR LOWS...BUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER FOR THE HIGHS.             
 TR.92                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  65  60  68  55 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 WACO, TX              53  66  61  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 PARIS, TX             45  59  58  66  57 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DENTON, TX            50  64  58  67  48 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          50  63  59  67  53 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DALLAS, TX            52  65  61  69  58 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 TERRELL, TX           49  63  60  69  60 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 CORSICANA, TX         51  64  62  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  60                 
 TEMPLE, TX            52  66  62  71  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 05/13/92                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 917 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS AFFECTED SOUTHWEST                   
 CORNER OF WI AND SMALL PART OF ADJACENT NORTHEAST IOWA ZONES THIS              
 EVENING. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ADVANCING ALONG SURFACE                 
 FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL LITERALLY CRAWLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST                    
 CORNER OF WI. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED IN MOIST                    
 BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THIS AREA.                                  
 LATEST RUC INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON                
 THE 290K SURFACE...AS WELL AS Q-G CONVERGENCE...WAS ON THE WANE.               
 THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER                        
 AFOREMENTIONED PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                      
 DATA BASE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCORPORATE LATEST PRECIPITATION                 
 TRENDS...WHICH WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AND FOG ENDING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z                
 THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
 PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES BY 0330Z.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THOMPSON                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 1107 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING             
 FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. TEMPERATURES OUT                 
 AHEAD OF FRONT WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT         
 TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. LATEST 15Z RUC INDICATES              
 SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
 THIS AFTERNOON. 15Z RUC INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST                   
 KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY               
 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD LOW         
 LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION UP TO 750MB BY 21Z ACROSS              
 SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K                      
 SURFACE. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE              
 NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES              
 ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.             
 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL         
 CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDATE FOR                  
 MORNING WORDING.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DTJ                                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 105 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF FWA BY 06Z...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR                
 SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING VERY               
 CLOSE TO THE TIME IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SLEET AT SBN...SO HAVE            
 INCLUDED A BRIEF MENTION OF SLEET AT SBN. NEXT ROUND OF                        
 PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL BETWEEN                     
 LIQUID...FREEZING AND FROZEN...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING            
 RAIN/SLEET AT SBN AND JUST RAIN AT FWA. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY IFR              
 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 AT 02Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...FAR SE                    
 MICHIGAN...THEN IT EXTENDED SW INTO NE...CNTRL...AND SW INDIANA.               
 THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST               
 AREA OVERNIGHT.                                                                
 UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WX DISTURBANCES AND UPR            
 LVL JET DYNAMICS WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING OVER            
 THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. HENCE...PCPN WILL BE              
 WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
 THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACRS THE NRN AND NWRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT             
 AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LVLS SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTHEAST.  HAVE MADE             
 SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS.  BELIEVE CHC/S FOR SNOW             
 ARE SLIM TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE REMOVED             
 SNOW AND HAVE GONE WITH JUST A CHC OF SLEET.  HAVE ALSO MODIFIED               
 OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S N AND NW            
 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 32               
 DEGREES IN THE N AND NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT           
 FREEZING RAIN CHC/S DUE TO THE BORDERLINE VALUE.  THERE COULD BE A             
 CHC OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY IF TEMPS DIP TO 31 DEGREES              
 BRIEFLY.  MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS                   
 POSSIBILITY AS THEY WATCH HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS              
 TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL            
 BE PULLING AWAY SOME FROM THE CWA TOMORROW. EVEN TOMORROW THE                  
 MORNING HOURS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DO. WITH           
 THE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS               
 EVENING AND JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WILL GIVE            
 THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE               
 NORTHERN PART. ALSO THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE                 
 COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PART THAN IN THE SOUTHERN PART AND MORE SO              
 NEAR THE SURFACE. THEREFORE AS TONIGHT WEARS ON FROM NORTH TO                  
 SOUTH...A MIX OF PRECIP HAS A CHANCE TO FORM. A LITTLE TRICKY TO SEE           
 IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GET COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR               
 FREEZING RAIN TO COME INTO THE MIX IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT              
 DID NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF           
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES START DROPPING OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED AND THE             
 SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN               
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW            
 FOR OUR NORTHERN PART. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH               
 COLD AIR IS GOING TO PENETRATE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.              
 ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN TYPE PRECIP TO FALL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IS              
 NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO AS MUCH AS THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS                   
 LOOKING. LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT TO DROP              
 THE NORTH BY A DEGREE FOR TOMORROW.                                            
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 CDFNT DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL STALL OVER THE OH RVR           
 VALLEY ON SAT. DEEP TROF OVER WRN U.S. WILL CONT WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT             
 OVER OUR AREA. WK DISTURBANCES MOVG NE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WILL             
 RESULT IN ONCL BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT AND ENHANCED OVER-RUNNING                
 POTENTIAL. TIMING OF THESE WK SHRTWV`S IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS             
 JUNCTURE AS MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT           
 ON A COUPLE OF SUCH WAVES SAT NGT AND SUND. THUS, LEFT POPS FOR SAT            
 NGT IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW AND CONTD WITH LOW QPF.                            
 OVERLAYING MSP SOUNDING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES ALL MODELS              
 INITIALIZED THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO WARM BELOW 950MB AND NOT QUITE              
 WARM ENOUGH WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700MB. THUS, HEDGED               
 TOWARD A LITTLE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC FOR               
 PTYPE AND MIN/MAX CONSIDERATIONS THIS WEEKEND.                                 
 SGFNT PRECIP FROM THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUN AFTN-EVE AS STRONG             
 TROF LIFTS ENE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ENHANCING OVER-RUNNING OF SFC             
 BOUNDARY. LEANED TOWARD GFS TIMING WHICH IS FASTER THAN NAM. STILL A           
 GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA WITH THIS PATTERN. HELD           
 OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW SINCE SGFNT PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN              
 4TH PD AT THE EARLIEST. HWVR, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WEAKER                   
 SHRTWV`S MOVG THROUGH THE AREA COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY SOONER.           
 NAM/GFS CONSISTENT INDICATING DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE AREA LATE           
 SUNDAY NGT BRINGING SGFNT PRECIP TO AN END WITH DEFORMATION ZONE               
 PRECIP STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. NORMALLY THIS IS NOT A                 
 SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW, BUT WITH VERY MOIST AMS (700MB              
 MIXING RATIO AROUND 4G/KG SUN EVE) OVER-RUNNING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY,           
 CAN`T RULE THIS OUT.                                                           
 SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PSBL MONDAY AS UPPER TROF SHEARS OUT                 
 ACROSS THE GRTLKS. GOING CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES             
 FOR MON NGT-TUE NGT AS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREME, HWVR,           
 INVERSION HEIGHTS AT THIS POINT LOOK RATHER LOW FOR SGFNT LAKE                 
 EFFECT SNOW. RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH ANOTHER           
 FRONT APPROACHING ON THU. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PD BUT WITH PASSAGE             
 OF THE CDFNT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
 ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS AGAIN FRI.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                               
 AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                             
 SHORT TERM...98                                                                
 LONG TERM....01                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  80 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  90 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  80 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  80 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  70 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100 100 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100 100 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100 100 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100 100 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                
 TONIGHT. THE PCPN WILL REMAIN FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE                 
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PCPN             
 WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL                
 SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH           
 SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE             
 ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO OVC010 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL           
 TEXAS THROUGH 14/06Z.  21                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                       
 UPDATE...UPDATED ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE                  
 TRENDS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.              
 EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSHED THE                
 FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF I-10. WHILE MUCH OF THE                 
 WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...KSJT RADAR                      
 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING AND ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN              
 BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING             
 INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO               
 MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LINE PER MESONET DATA FROM ROBERT             
 LEE TO NEAR BROWNWOOD. WHERE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NOT                    
 OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS LINE...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL MORE                    
 SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER.                                        
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 UPDATE IS MAINLY FOR EXTENDING THE ICE STORM WARNING ONE SET OF                
 COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY               
 AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF              
 A KBWD TO KSJT LINE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO             
 UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WITH                 
 DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN              
 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATING MAIN UPPER                  
 LEVEL TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO NEXT ROUND OF FZRA AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT                
 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  25  29  28  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  36  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  41  47  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-                
 RUNNELS-STERLING.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1105 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...UPDATED ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE                 
 TRENDS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.              
 EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSHED THE                
 FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF I-10. WHILE MUCH OF THE                 
 WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...KSJT RADAR                      
 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING AND ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN              
 BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING             
 INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO               
 MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LINE PER MESONET DATA FROM ROBERT             
 LEE TO NEAR BROWNWOOD. WHERE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NOT                    
 OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS LINE...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL MORE                    
 SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER.                                        
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 UPDATE IS MAINLY FOR EXTENDING THE ICE STORM WARNING ONE SET OF                
 COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY               
 AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF              
 A KBWD TO KSJT LINE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO             
 UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WITH                 
 DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN              
 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATING MAIN UPPER                  
 LEVEL TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO NEXT ROUND OF FZRA AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT                
 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 WIDESPREAD PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.           
 THE PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF FZRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE           
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR A KDFW-KBWD-KSJT LINE. THE FRONT             
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY             
 BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ON           
 SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN             
 FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA              
 ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO              
 OVC010 EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH                  
 14/00Z.                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  25  29  28 /  50  70  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  31  36  32 /  50  60  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  41  47  39 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-                
 RUNNELS-STERLING.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 27/27                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 720 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA         
 MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MOST LIKELY AREAS OF VERY              
 HEAVY SLEET. LOCAL 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SLEET FOR                 
 PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO              
 SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWED A FEW              
 POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                         
 KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS CREATED A VOID OF ICE CRYSTALS IN             
 THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTANT PRECIP WAS FREEZING                          
 DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY AS              
 COOLER CLOUD TOPS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SLEET ACCUMULATION IS                
 LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITNESSING AN                
 INCH OR MORE OF SLEET.                                                         
 MEANWHILE...A BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL              
 OKLAHOMA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS COULD                 
 YIELD ANOTHER EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS             
 A RESULT...WE WILL INSERT A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TODAY OVER             
 THAT AREA.                                                                     
 JAKUB                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  50 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  50 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  70 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  40 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  50 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100  60 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100  60 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100  60 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100  60 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  80 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  90 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  80 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  80 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  70 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100 100 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100 100 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100 100 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100 100 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1016 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .MORNING UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT)...                                    
 CURRENT MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CMH SW TO            
 JUST WEST OF MEM.  PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED ACROSS THE           
 FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISTRICT WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER              
 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...BUT UP NEAR JASPER TEMPERATURES HAVE               
 DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S.  AREA RADARS SHOWING NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT             
 TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE           
 FA THIS AFTERNOON.  EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD               
 TREND IN PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN            
 THE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
 LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THE RUC MODELS                     
 (13KM/40KM) SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES THIS               
 MORNING.  THE RUC MODELS SEEM TO BRING THE FRONT TO ABOUT LOUISVILLE           
 LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN STALLING IT OUT.  THE NET RESULT WOULD BE           
 TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES WOULD FALL DURING            
 THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH ALL OF THE KY COUNTIES           
 TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                           
 CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE               
 SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RUC                
 TRENDS.                                                                        
 ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIDE...AT THE PRESENT TIME WE ARE IN GOOD                  
 SHAPE.  THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS THUS FAR HAVE NOT RESULTED IN              
 EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.  HOWEVER...MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION           
 IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.                   
 THEREFORE...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.                         
 UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1100 AM EST.                       
 -MJ                                                                            
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                 
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                             
 CURRENTLY...DEEP SWRLY FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD            
 FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS PUSHING THROUGH              
 EVV ATTM. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FASTER           
 THAN MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE COLD AIR HAS LED TO QUITE AN ICING EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF OK               
 INTO MO. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT AS WELL...AS PAH WAS AT 60                
 DEGREES AND CAPE GIRARDEAU AT 39 DEGREES AT 2AM EST.                           
 DESPITE COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING...A LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER              
 THE TEXARKANA REGION RIDING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP SLOW THE            
 FRONT`S PROGRESSION...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR FIRST WAVE OF            
 POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY. THIS AREA           
 SHOULD EXPAND AND FILTER INTO OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. MAY              
 EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF                   
 RAINFALL GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. WILL ONLY MENTION ISLD THREAT WEST             
 OF I-65 THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS MORNING`S MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...A             
 LULL IN THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LOW              
 PRESSURE WAVE RIDES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...CAUSING ANOTHER             
 BOUT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.                                                
 THOUGH RAIN ONSET IS LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...STILL THINK THE FLOOD            
 WATCH IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH                 
 NOW...AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR 1.5 INCHES THIS                   
 EVENING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 4-5 STD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL              
 POSED BY THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES. ALSO...NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOME           
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LI`S AROUND ZERO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID            
 IN OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN THIS CONVECTION. STILL THINK SOME              
 LOCATIONS COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS           
 SEEING 4 INCHES OR MORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ONSET THINK A                
 WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IS NOT LIKELY...THOUGH A MINOR AND MORE              
 ISOLATED FLOODING EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SO WILL CONTINUE               
 FLOOD WATCH. MAY DOWN PLAY AMOUNTS A WEE BIT BUT THAT IS ALL.                  
 THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNRISE           
 AND SHOULD BE IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION OR JUST SE BY MIDNIGHT               
 TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING...WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY            
 HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                
 FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...HAVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL THE TAF               
 SITES THIS MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG SWRLY JET OF 40-45 KTS OVER THE            
 CWA NOW...EVIDENT FROM AREA VWPS AND SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS. MAY SEE              
 SOME GUSTY WINDS HERE AND THERE...BUT NOTHING OUT OF HAND AS CLOUDY            
 SKIES SHOULD HELP INHIBIT LARGER GUSTS.                                        
 TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...AND COULD HAVE QUITE THE GRADIENT                 
 ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP AND/OR STEADY            
 OUT ACROSS THE NW...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S DROPPING            
 TO THE UPPER 40S AND HOLDING THERE. THE SERN CWA COULD SEE HIGHS A             
 FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND             
 60 FOR THE MOST PART. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND SHOULD            
 BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS TODAY.                                 
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...                                                           
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE                  
 BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT                    
 INITIALIZE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL AND FEEL IT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH             
 THAN MODELS SUGGEST. SURFACE WAVE SHOULD SHIFT THE COLD AIR NORTH              
 SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND AT THIS TIME WE WILL KEEP                 
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE AXIS OF                
 HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO            
 RIVER WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHTEST           
 AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY                  
 FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE           
 OHIO RIVER SUNDAY WHERE BEST DYNAMICS EXIST...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY             
 WILL BE LACKING.                                                               
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL AS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE GRADIENT           
 WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN              
 THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED NEAR             
 THE TENNESSEE BORDER.                                                          
 ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THE MODIFIED                
 ARCTIC AIR WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES           
 WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
 MONDAY BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                                        
 JA                                                                             
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  WITH                
 FRONT CONTINUING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE           
 UPPER PLAINS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GET THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MACHINE           
 GOING TO OUR NORTH. DOWN THIS FAR SOUTH...FEEL THAT SCT FLURRIES               
 WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE AS SUCH.             
 BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WOULD EXIST OVER FAR EAST KY IN THE                
 FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY             
 THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.            
 TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL             
 WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE             
 UPPER TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY                 
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE                
 MID AND UPPER 30S. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE                   
 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                           
 MJ                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-             
      053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.                                          
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-             
      089>092.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 556 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ...ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH               
 SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                
 THE FIRST WAVE OF THE STORM HAS PRODUCED A PRETTY GOOD HIT ON THE              
 AREA. IF THERE IS ANY SAVING GRACE IT IS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
 PCPN ACRS NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL MO HAS BEEN IN THE                
 FORM OF SLEET AND THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE FROM                
 FREEZING RAIN. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS TROY AND                 
 WARRENTON. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FROM SPOTTER REPORTS IS THE ZR ICE                
 GLAZE RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH FROM WESTERN ST LOUIS                
 METRO UPWARDS TO A HALF-INCH HEADING TOWARDS COLUMBIA. WE ARE GETTING          
 REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES           
 WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.                                                          
 THE CURRENT SOLID WAVE OF PCPN IS SHOWING A DECIDED BACK EDGE...RUNNING        
 THRU NE AND CNTRL MO. THIS WAVE OF PCPN SHOULD CONT TO SHIFT EAST              
 THIS MORNING...AND BELIEVE IT WILL EXIT MOST OF THE REGION WITH                
 MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MO AND SRN IL BY MID MORNING. WEAK               
 LOW LEVEL CAA IS CONTINUING WITH THE NNWLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...          
 AND KFAM IS NOW DOWN TO FREEZING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE REGION FROM FARMINGTON TO                 
 SPARTA TO NASHVILLE. ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO             
 REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL MO INTO SW             
 IL. AFTER THIS MAIN BATCH OF PCPN EXITS EAST...THINK WE WILL ONLY              
 SEE PERIODIC BATCHES OF LIGHT PCPN SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA...NOTHING             
 LIKE THE INTENSITY WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 18H OR SO. THIS SHOULD                
 CONTRIBUTE NO MORE THAN A LIGHT ICE GLAZE. EXPECTING PCPN TNGT                 
 WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITHIN THE COLD AIR...WITH THE                   
 HEAVIEST PCPN HAVING SHIFTED S AND SE OF THE CWFA. ONCE AGAIN ANY              
 ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.                                    
 THE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROLONGED EVENT WILL              
 IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS           
 THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID-UPR LEVEL TROF. THIS           
 ROUND OF THE STORM SHOULD BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THIS FIRST WAVE              
 WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH WDSPRD PCPN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE-            
 HALF INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SHOW THE MAJORITY             
 OF THE PCPN FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE IN THE              
 FORM OF SLEET. SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN MUCH             
 THE SAME LOCATION WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED...NAMELY ST LOUIS METRO             
 TO ABOUT 50 MILES WEST. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS OF AROUND ONE-HALF               
 INCH APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN QPF IN THE .50-.75 RANGE. THIS              
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LATE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BE DEVASTATING GIVEN OUR CURRENT SITUATION              
 WITH ICE ALREADY WEIGHING HEAVILY ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THE                
 POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO                  
 WESTERN ILLINOIS IS VERY REAL. ACROSS NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL                  
 ILLINOIS THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN ENUF BY SUNDAY EVENING FOR A               
 BAND OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW.                                                    
 FINALLY...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME OF THE RIVERS AND                  
 STREAMS ACROSS SRN MO. WE HAVE SOME REPORTS OF THE TYPICAL FLOODED             
 LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TODAY.              
 THUS THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS QUITE GOOD IN THIS AREA.                      
 A SIDE NOTE - THE NORMAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE OF THE GFS AND NAM               
 CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE                
 COLD AIR. THE OPERATIONAL RUC AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC THROUGH 48H                
 APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.             
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS FINALLY ENDED IN                
 UIN AND COU. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS PCPN SHOULD BE PULLING E OF               
 STL AND SUS BY 14Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE P TYPE HAS BEEN FZRA IN STL               
 AND SUS THRU THE LT NGT HRS...INCLUDED A TEMPO GRP OF PL TIL 14Z               
 AS WFO LSX JUST W OF SUS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING BOTH FZRA AND PL                
 DURING THE LAST HR. CEILING HGTS SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY LTR THIS                 
 MRNG TO ARND 1500-2000 FT WITH NLY SFC WNDS CONTG N-NW OF ARCTIC               
 CDFNT. LOOKING AT MDL QPF FCSTS AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS              
 IT APRS THAT THERE MAY BE A BATCH OF LGT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MOVG              
 THRU THE CWA DURING THE LT AFTN AND EVNG HRS. INCLUDED 5SM WITH                
 -FZRAPL IN UIN AND COU...AND -FZRA IN STL AND SUS LT THIS AFTN AND             
 THIS EVNG.                                                                     
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-                
      CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-                 
      LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-               
      RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-                 
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.              
      FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.                                                  
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-             
      BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                
      IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-                
      ST. CLAIR IL.                                                             
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 1059 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 CALLS MADE TO AREA OBSERVERS/SPOTTERS THIS MORNING INDICATE                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY SLEET...MIXED WITH SNOW              
 GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY              
 BEEN AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS. DESPITE WARM              
 WEDGE AROUND BETWEEN 900-700MB...ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT BELOW              
 THE INVERSION TO REFREEZE THE RAIN DROPS INTO SLEET OVER SOUTHEAST             
 KANSAS. MAY STILL GET A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH THE SLEET              
 OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MAJOR GLAZING             
 ISSUES DUE TO FREEZING RAIN.                                                   
 BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS           
 ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.             
 THINKING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM           
 WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON                         
 PROGRESSES...AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE                  
 EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GET VERY LIGHT               
 SLEET/SNOW DUE TO RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT AND COLD LOW-LEVEL                        
 TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATING MAYBE ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF SLEET               
 ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.                    
 SO FAR WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY.                 
 HOWEVER...FOR CONSISTENCY WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO               
 CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY AREAWIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.                        
 FOCUS THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN ON SHORT-TERM ISSUES. AN UPDATE ON THE              
 SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3-4 PM.            
 KLEINSASSER                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA         
 MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MOST LIKELY AREAS OF VERY              
 HEAVY SLEET. LOCAL 12Z RAB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SLEET FOR                  
 PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO              
 SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWED A FEW              
 POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                         
 KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS CREATED A VOID OF ICE CRYSTALS IN             
 THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTANT PRECIP WAS FREEZING                          
 DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY AS              
 COOLER CLOUD TOPS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SLEET ACCUMULATION IS                
 LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITNESSING AN                
 INCH OR MORE OF SLEET.                                                         
 MEANWHILE...A BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL              
 OKLAHOMA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS COULD                 
 YIELD ANOTHER EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS             
 A RESULT...WE WILL INSERT A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TODAY OVER             
 THAT AREA.                                                                     
 JAKUB                                                                          
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    17  12  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      15  10  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          16  11  18   9 / 100  50 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        17  12  18  10 / 100  50 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   19  14  19  12 / 100  70 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         13   8  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      13   8  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          14   9  17   7 / 100  40 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       15   9  17   7 / 100  50 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     23  17  23  16 / 100  60 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  16  21  14 / 100  60 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  15  21  13 / 100  60 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    22  17  22  15 / 100  60 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                         
 403 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST         
 TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND           
 NOT EXPECTING THIS TO CHANGE MUCH ANY TIME SOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES           
 WERE POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION AND THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT         
 WAS TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD           
 BE COMING TO AND END SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION            
 WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THUS HAVE              
 KEPT POPS RATHER HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT HAVE TRIMED               
 POPS BACK TO CHANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN              
 PARISHES.                                                                      
 COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL TODAY...NOW LOCATED NEAR A HOT                
 SPRINGS...TEXARKANA...MARSHALL...MOUNT ENTERPRISE LINE. HAVE                   
 FOLLOWED THE RUC FCST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12HRS WHICH ONLY                   
 BRINGS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...INTO THE                    
 SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
 THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN PULL UP NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE                     
 DAY SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AREA DIVES DOWN                  
 OUT OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH PROMISES TO                     
 KICK THE ORIGIONAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL OF THE REGION BY LATE                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN                      
 UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF OVERRUNNING                    
 MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE NAM PROG...WHICH OF                  
 LATE HAS BEEN FAR SUPERIOR TO THE GFS...PUSHES THE 32 DEGREE                   
 ISOTHERM INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST                    
 OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT                    
 THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY. FOR THIS                    
 REASON...HAVE POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE AND TEXARKANA               
 TEXAS TO LEWISVILLE AND PRESCOTT ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES              
 NOT APPEAR THAT FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXCESSIVE BUT                
 THE WATCH IS A GOOD START THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SUCH THAT IF IT                  
 APPEARS LIKE CONDITIONS WARRANT...THE WATCH CAN BE EXPANDED OR                 
 UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING ISSUED BY LATER SHIFTS.                     
 FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE...TROUGH CONTINUES TO RELOAD ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THUS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW                   
 REGIME THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INTRODUCED                 
 SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BETTER                
 CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK/ NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE             
 APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.                                                
 13                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RAIN AREA ALONG/BEHIND THE               
 COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST E OF TXK...TO N CADDO                  
 PARISH...TO JUST E OF MARSHALL...TO DKR AS OF 21Z. EMBEDDED THUNDER            
 CONTINUES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THESE CAN BE HANDLED IN TEMPO GROUPS IN           
 THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR FARTHER E ACROSS DEEP E             
 TX AND MUCH OF N LA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MVFR/IFR             
 STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL REDEVELOPMENT WILL               
 OCCUR FARTHER E INTO SW AR/NW LA/DEEP E TX...INCLUDING THE                     
 ELD/SHV/LFK TERMINALS...THUS WILL PREVAIL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT               
 THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER ALL              
 BUT THE MLU TERMINAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. FROZEN PCP             
 WILL REMAIN ACROSS E/S OK AND N TX THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BEFORE RAIN            
 BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZRA OVER MCCURTAIN CO. OK/DEQ PRIOR TO              
 6Z. /15/                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SHV  56  58  37  40 /  80  90 100  70                                          
 MLU  65  74  48  48 /  50  50 100  70                                          
 DEQ  40  40  31  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 TXK  48  50  32  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 ELD  57  64  39  41 /  80 100 100  70                                          
 TYR  39  40  31  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 GGG  47  47  32  39 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 LFK  58  64  37  40 /  80  90 100  70                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
      HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE                                   
      RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.                                     
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES: HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE                  
      RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND          
      MCCURTAIN.                                                                
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MCCURTAIN.                                           
 TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
      BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...           
      MARION...MORRIS...RED RIVER...RUSK...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...            
      AND WOOD.                                                                 
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                          
      BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...           
      MARION...MORRIS...PANOLA...RED RIVER...RUSK...SMITH...TITUS...            
      UPSHUR...AND WOOD.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 13/15                                                                          
</pre> la                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 1050 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SECOND WAVE OF WINTRY PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL              
 RADAR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST.             
 NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A SLEET/FZRA MIX WITH UP TO AN                   
 ADDITIONAL INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE             
 ADVISED AND WARNED AREA SEES FREEZING RAIN...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH              
 AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION.                       
 OVER A 100,000 PEOPLE ARE NOW WITHOUT POWER ACCORDING TO AMEREN                
 ELECTRIC COMPANY.                                                              
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ...ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH               
 SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                
 THE FIRST WAVE OF THE STORM HAS PRODUCED A PRETTY GOOD HIT ON THE              
 AREA. IF THERE IS ANY SAVING GRACE IT IS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
 PCPN ACRS NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL MO HAS BEEN IN THE                
 FORM OF SLEET AND THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE FROM                
 FREEZING RAIN. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS TROY AND                 
 WARRENTON. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FROM SPOTTER REPORTS IS THE ZR ICE                
 GLAZE RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH FROM WESTERN ST LOUIS                
 METRO UPWARDS TO A HALF-INCH HEADING TOWARDS COLUMBIA. WE ARE GETTING          
 REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES           
 WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.                                                          
 THE CURRENT SOLID WAVE OF PCPN IS SHOWING A DECIDED BACK EDGE...RUNNING        
 THRU NE AND CNTRL MO. THIS WAVE OF PCPN SHOULD CONT TO SHIFT EAST              
 THIS MORNING...AND BELIEVE IT WILL EXIT MOST OF THE REGION WITH                
 MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MO AND SRN IL BY MID MORNING. WEAK               
 LOW LEVEL CAA IS CONTINUING WITH THE NNWLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...          
 AND KFAM IS NOW DOWN TO FREEZING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE REGION FROM FARMINGTON TO                 
 SPARTA TO NASHVILLE. ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO             
 REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL MO INTO SW             
 IL. AFTER THIS MAIN BATCH OF PCPN EXITS EAST...THINK WE WILL ONLY              
 SEE PERIODIC BATCHES OF LIGHT PCPN SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA...NOTHING             
 LIKE THE INTENSITY WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 18H OR SO. THIS SHOULD                
 CONTRIBUTE NO MORE THAN A LIGHT ICE GLAZE. EXPECTING PCPN TNGT                 
 WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITHIN THE COLD AIR...WITH THE                   
 HEAVIEST PCPN HAVING SHIFTED S AND SE OF THE CWFA. ONCE AGAIN ANY              
 ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.                                    
 THE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROLONGED EVENT WILL              
 IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS           
 THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID-UPR LEVEL TROF. THIS           
 ROUND OF THE STORM SHOULD BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THIS FIRST WAVE              
 WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH WDSPRD PCPN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE-            
 HALF INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SHOW THE MAJORITY             
 OF THE PCPN FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE IN THE              
 FORM OF SLEET. SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN MUCH             
 THE SAME LOCATION WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED...NAMELY ST LOUIS METRO             
 TO ABOUT 50 MILES WEST. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS OF AROUND ONE-HALF               
 INCH APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN QPF IN THE .50-.75 RANGE. THIS              
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LATE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BE DEVASTATING GIVEN OUR CURRENT SITUATION              
 WITH ICE ALREADY WEIGHING HEAVILY ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THE                
 POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO                  
 WESTERN ILLINOIS IS VERY REAL. ACROSS NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL                  
 ILLINOIS THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN ENUF BY SUNDAY EVENING FOR A               
 BAND OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW.                                                    
 FINALLY...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME OF THE RIVERS AND                  
 STREAMS ACROSS SRN MO. WE HAVE SOME REPORTS OF THE TYPICAL FLOODED             
 LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TODAY.              
 THUS THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS QUITE GOOD IN THIS AREA.                      
 A SIDE NOTE - THE NORMAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE OF THE GFS AND NAM               
 CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE                
 COLD AIR. THE OPERATIONAL RUC AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC THROUGH 48H                
 APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.             
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                            
 IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING        
 RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO              
 THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10              
 KTS.                                                                           
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-                
      CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-                 
      LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-               
      RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-                 
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.              
      FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.                                                  
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-             
      BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                
      IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-                
      ST. CLAIR IL.                                                             
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1244 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL HAS REALIGNED ITSELF ALONG              
 AND SOUTH OF THE FRNTL BNDRY POSN EXTNDG FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO             
 KLHQ. NORTH OF THE BNDRY...-RA AND/OR -DZ WAS BEING REPORTED. THE              
 BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY STALLING              
 OUT SOMEWHERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND          
 DIR SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL TAFS BUT KDAY OVERNIGHT DUE TO                
 RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF BNDRY. HAVE LEFT -RA IN TAFS THIS AFTN WITH              
 THE BULK OF THE PCPN SETTLING SOUTH OF THE TAFS IN NRN KY BY 00Z               
 IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE FRNTL BNDRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS EVNG DO               
 SUPPORT SOME -DZ POTENTIAL...AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TEMPOS AT                    
 KCMH/KLCK/KDAY/KILN.                                                           
 ANOTHER WAVE OF LO PRES CURRENTLY IN ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH                  
 ALONG FRNTL BNDRY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN.               
 THIS WILL KEEP THE BREAK FROM MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN FAIRLY                     
 SHORTLIVED THIS EVNG...WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE AFFECTING ALL             
 TAFS BTWN 06-10Z AND CONTINUING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST                 
 PERIOD. VSBYS MAY IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTN...OSCILLATING BTWN IFR                
 AND VFR. AFT DARK...PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR               
 VSBYS WITH HEVAIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. WITH STRONG                     
 INVERSION NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AT AROUND 1000 FT AGL...EXPECT              
 CIGS TO REMAIN AT IFR AND LOWER THRU FCST PERIOD.                              
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
  /ISSUED 1140 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                          
 SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                 
 FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THIS MRNG...AND IS NOW LOCATED               
 FROM SRN INDIANA NE THRU NRN CINCY SUBURBS...TO JUST NORTH OF KILN             
 CONTINUING NE INTO NRN FAIRFIELD CO JUST SOUTH OF CMH METRO. PCPN              
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS FIRST SFC WAVE HAS MOVED              
 WELL TO EAST INTO CNTRL PA...AND AXIS OF BNDRY LYR FORCING ALONG               
 850 LLJ HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIEST RAIN SO             
 FAR HAS FALLEN FROM THE WHITEWATER VLY EAST INTO THE SRN DAYTON                
 METRO AREA IN GREENE AND NRN WARREN COS WITH 1.25-1.5 INCHES...THE             
 BULK OF WHICH HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVNG. A SOLID 0.75 TO 1 INCH             
 HAS FALLEN ELSEWHERE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS                 
 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                              
 FCST UPDATE MAINLY TO FOCUS ON PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMP PROFILES FOR             
 AFTN. 12Z NAM/RUC BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON CURRENT FRNTL BNDRY               
 POSN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY                
 STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA THIS EVNG.               
 LOWERED POPS FASTER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS AFTN AS THIS AREA             
 SHOULD SEE A SVRL HOUR BREAK FROM HEAVIER PCPN. MODEL SOUNDINGS                
 AND CURRENT OBS THOUGH DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND/OR -DZ               
 THRU AFTN HOURS. CAT POPS WILL CONTINUE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA                 
 INTO TONIGHT AS BNDRY STALLS AND NEXT SFC WAVE OVER SW ARKANSAS                
 LIFTS NE ALONG BNDRY. HAVE INDICATED STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS JUST              
 ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO                   
 TUMBLE WITH FROPA. THIS FORCED A CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AS                    
 EVENING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC WAVE APPCHG FROM THE SW. THIS               
 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY...OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN                
 THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
 FCST UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
 RYAN                                                                           
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 412 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 CDFNT IS NOW INTO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES RUNNING FROM NR FDY-                 
 AOH-MIE ATTM. CDFNT WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU THE FA AREA                          
 TODAY...PUSHING AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SRN OH/NRN               
 KY. THE NRN COUNTIES WILL SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTN.                  
 BY 00Z SUN THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NE TN INTO CNTRL WV. 40 KT              
 H8 JET WILL HELP ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS                 
 BEGIN TO DIFFER TONIGHT. NAM PUSHES A LOW ACROSS THE                           
 REGION...WHILE THE GFS JUST ENHANCES AN INVERTED TROF. EITHER WAY              
 CATEGORICAL POPS CAN BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE               
 WARMTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DONT EXPECT ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN             
 ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                                          
 ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROVIDED AS LOW                      
 PRESSURE WAVES RUN ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS WORKED BACK NORTH               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 GFS AND NAM DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE              
 GFS PUSHES A WEAKER LOW INTO WV BY 12Z...WHILE THE NAM WINDS UP A              
 LOW AND PULLS IT NORTH ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. PREFER THE               
 GFS SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL MIX A LITTLE SLEET ON THE BACKSIDE               
 BEFORE THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORDS IN. THE                
 THREAT OF A HEAVY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT HAS DIMINISHED WITH                
 THIS RUN. WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.                  
 AS FOR TEMPS. IT WAS TRICKY TODAY...TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE                 
 CDFNT WOULD BE AT 12Z. IS APPEARS THAT THE FNT IS A LITTLE FARTHER             
 NORTH THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT AT 06Z...SO WENT WITH A WARMER TEMPS             
 THAN THE GFS MOS WAS GIVING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WENT CLOSER             
 TO THE ETA MOS. WENT A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT...THEN             
 WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR PERIODS 3 THRU 5.                                    
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
 SLOWED THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE E/SE MONDAY NIGHT BY STARTING            
 OFF WITH EITHER A MIX OR ALL RAIN. ALSO PUSHED LOW TEMPS MONDAY                
 NIGHT UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                  
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-070>074-        
      077>082-088.                                                              
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-        
      080.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1140 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                
 FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THIS MRNG...AND IS NOW LOCATED               
 FROM SRN INDIANA NE THRU NRN CINCY SUBURBS...TO JUST NORTH OF KILN             
 CONTINUING NE INTO NRN FAIRFIELD CO JUST SOUTH OF CMH METRO. PCPN              
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS FIRST SFC WAVE HAS MOVED              
 WELL TO EAST INTO CNTRL PA...AND AXIS OF BNDRY LYR FORCING ALONG               
 850 LLJ HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIEST RAIN SO             
 FAR HAS FALLEN FROM THE WHITEWATER VLY EAST INTO THE SRN DAYTON                
 METRO AREA IN GREENE AND NRN WARREN COS WITH 1.25-1.5 INCHES...THE             
 BULK OF WHICH HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVNG. A SOLID 0.75 TO 1 INCH             
 HAS FALLEN ELSEWHERE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS                 
 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                              
 FCST UPDATE MAINLY TO FOCUS ON PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMP PROFILES FOR             
 AFTN. 12Z NAM/RUC BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON CURRENT FRNTL BNDRY               
 POSN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY                
 STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA THIS EVNG.               
 LOWERED POPS FASTER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS AFTN AS THIS AREA             
 SHOULD SEE A SVRL HOUR BREAK FROM HEAVIER PCPN. MODEL SOUNDINGS                
 AND CURRENT OBS THOUGH DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND/OR -DZ               
 THRU AFTN HOURS. CAT POPS WILL CONTINUE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA                 
 INTO TONIGHT AS BNDRY STALLS AND NEXT SFC WAVE OVER SW ARKANSAS                
 LIFTS NE ALONG BNDRY. HAVE INDICATED STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS JUST              
 ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO                   
 TUMBLE WITH FROPA. THIS FORCED A CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AS                    
 EVENING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC WAVE APPCHG FROM THE SW. THIS               
 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY...OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN                
 THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
 FCST UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 FCST IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROXIMITY OF THE              
 FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS AOB 1KFT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE BOARD.              
 ONE OR TWO SITES WILL POP OUT OF THE LOW STUFF FROM TIME TO                    
 TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION VERSUS THE RULE FOR THIS SET             
 OF TAFS.                                                                       
 HAVE TRIED TO LOWER THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND              
 EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE PRECIP SHOULD TURN OFF FROM              
 NW-SE. HOWEVER...COULDN`T IN GOOD CONSCIENCE GO ENTIRELY DRY SO I              
 ADDED A FEW HOURS OF DZ UNDERNEATH THE CONTINUED LOW CIGS. ANOTHER             
 WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST                          
 OVERNIGHT...SPREADING MORE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM SW-NE AFTER ABOUT             
 6Z.                                                                            
 FRANKS                                                                         
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 CDFNT IS NOW INTO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES RUNNING FROM NR FDY-                 
 AOH-MIE ATTM. CDFNT WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU THE FA AREA                          
 TODAY...PUSHING AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SRN OH/NRN               
 KY. THE NRN COUNTIES WILL SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTN.                  
 BY 00Z SUN THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NE TN INTO CNTRL WV. 40 KT              
 H8 JET WILL HELP ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS                 
 BEGIN TO DIFFER TONIGHT. NAM PUSHES A LOW ACROSS THE                           
 REGION...WHILE THE GFS JUST ENHANCES AN INVERTED TROF. EITHER WAY              
 CATEGORICAL POPS CAN BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE               
 WARMTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DONT EXPECT ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN             
 ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                                          
 ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROVIDED AS LOW                      
 PRESSURE WAVES RUN ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS WORKED BACK NORTH               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 GFS AND NAM DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE              
 GFS PUSHES A WEAKER LOW INTO WV BY 12Z...WHILE THE NAM WINDS UP A              
 LOW AND PULLS IT NORTH ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. PREFER THE               
 GFS SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL MIX A LITTLE SLEET ON THE BACKSIDE               
 BEFORE THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORDS IN. THE                
 THREAT OF A HEAVY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT HAS DIMINISHED WITH                
 THIS RUN. WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.                  
 AS FOR TEMPS. IT WAS TRICKY TODAY...TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE                 
 CDFNT WOULD BE AT 12Z. IS APPEARS THAT THE FNT IS A LITTLE FARTHER             
 NORTH THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT AT 06Z...SO WENT WITH A WARMER TEMPS             
 THAN THE GFS MOS WAS GIVING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WENT CLOSER             
 TO THE ETA MOS. WENT A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT...THEN             
 WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR PERIODS 3 THRU 5.                                    
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
 SLOWED THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE E/SE MONDAY NIGHT BY STARTING            
 OFF WITH EITHER A MIX OR ALL RAIN. ALSO PUSHED LOW TEMPS MONDAY                
 NIGHT UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                  
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-                
      070>074-077>082-088.                                                      
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
      073>075-080.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 1148 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY                   
 WESTERN HALF OF CWA. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING              
 PRECIP /LIGHT SNOW/ OVER IA ATTM...AND BRINGS BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT             
 AND DEEP SATURATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF                   
 AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH RUC GENERATING A COUPLE                         
 HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER WITH VSBYS UPSTEAM DROPPING AROUND 1SM AT                 
 TIMES...COULD SEE UP TO HALF INCH OF SNOW. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY              
 DRAG SNOW CHANCES FURTHER EAST...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR TIME BEING.             
 ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW                         
 SHOWERS FM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILWAUKEE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR               
 INDICATING A VERY WEAK BAND TRYING TO FORM ATTM. WITH RETURNS                  
 GNRLLY AOB 15DBZ...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.            
 MAF                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR SUNDAY                 
 EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                
 TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUIET WITH ONLY SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES            
 OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. INVERSION IS ONLY AROUND 3K FEET AND               
 BUFFY IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE             
 TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE 7K FEET. DELTA-T AROUND 12 DEGREES.          
 A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME            
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H850 AND H700...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL            
 DYNAMICS. THE NAM SOLUTION TONIGHT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE MID               
 AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND CONSEQUENTLY CRANKS OUT BETWEEN 1               
 AND 2 INCHES. THE NAM HOWEVER SEEMS TOO STRONG COMPARED TO THE                 
 REST OF THE MODELS. I WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH GFS POPS. SNOW                  
 ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.                               
 A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY             
 EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES               
 BETWEEN GFS AND NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE SURFACE               
 LOW AND H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE NAM APPEARS               
 TO BE THE OUTLIER HERE. I PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE              
 SURFACE SYSTEM AND H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. HPC                
 ALSO FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. HPC SNOW AMOUNTS BRINGS 4                  
 INCHES TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS                
 2-3 INCHES AS PER THE GFS QPF WITH A 15 TO 1 RATIO. WITHOUT THE                
 LOWER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY SOME VORTICITY CENTERS AND MID LEVEL                
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AVAILABLE.                                            
 AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LAKE WILL HAVE MINIMAL                      
 INFLUENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION STAYS BETWEEN 3-5K FEET               
 THROUGH THE CRITICAL PERIOD...AND DELTA-T NEVER EXCEEDS 14                     
 DEGREES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION WITH POPS AND SNOW                    
 AMOUNTS.                                                                       
 MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 NONE.                                                                          
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 99/99                                                                          
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