Log Date 08_26_99_09:34:29

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-10709</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBHC6AE5FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
208
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position 
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the

ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
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<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
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<TP>TECH  P
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<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
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<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position 
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the

ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
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<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
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<XX>
Types:-
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roducts & Product use.
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<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
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<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position 
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the

ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
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</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
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<XX>
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<TP>TECH  P
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<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position 
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the

ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
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<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  P
roducts & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-10709</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBHC6AE5FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
208
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position 
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the

ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>

<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  P
roducts & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
</DOC>

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============= Transaction # 17 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 18 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT944-5430</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ELDARADKFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9412
03
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  03 DEC 94 / Behind Cuban smiles: When the Soviet U
nion collapsed, Cuba's 'prosperity' vanished overnight. Nicholas Woodsworth 
walks the streets of Old Havana and today finds mostly inertia and neglect, 
decline and breakdown </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By NICHOLAS WOODSWORTH </BYLIN
E>
<TEXT>
There is a quiet anger about Mercedes, a smouldering resentment wh
ich on
evenings with me she keeps damped down only with rum and cigarettes.

It is the hospital wards she works in, she tells me - the shortage of
medici
nes and pain-killers, her inability to relieve suffering, the cries
and moan
s of patients which continue to pursue her long after her shift is
over.
Now
, in the little room I have rented in the house of her friends Luis and
Isab
el, Mercedes administers her own pain-killer, large gulps of dark,
caramel-t
asting Paticruzados rum. Two whimsical, carefree sailors dance
about the lab
el of the bottle. It sits conveniently close, parked on a
bedside table betw
een a cheaply whirring Russian fan and a battered radio
which sprays the hot
 Havana night with brassy rhythms - salsa, rumba, cha
cha cha.
After a few g
lasses her gloom lifts, her smooth brown face lightens. She
flirts and laugh
s a little, shakes her shoulders in time to the music, takes
on the brightne
ss that in a more ordinary time and place would naturally be
hers.
We plan a
 day at the beach, a walk along the sea front promenade of the
Malecon, ice-
cream at La Coppelia in the smart part of town, and Mercedes
seems happy. He
r anger, though, I know, is still there, profound and
indelible. It is not j
ust anger over her work, for Fidel Castro's
unwavering, catastrophic vision 
for her country, for Cuba's years of
hardship and suffering. It is also dire
cted at the outside world, at me.
'You know nothing,' she has already said t
o me in a brief moment of
unguarded bitterness. 'You tell me things have cha
nged all over the world,
that Cuba is a dinosaur, that things can only chang
e here, too. You tell me
democracy is around the corner. But you do not know
 Cuba.'
Tonight, though, Mercedes has no fight in her, no room left for deba
te. Like
most Cubans, she is sick to death of ideology and the politics of s
tate. She
saves her energy for the true politics of Cuba - the strategies of

day-to-day survival, the salvaging of small satisfactions from moral
bankru
ptcy and material collapse.
She drains her glass, stubs out one of the Ameri
can cigarettes she likes me
to buy her. 'Toda politica es mentiras,' is all 
she will say, shaking her
head. All politics is lies. She switches off the r
adio and stands, swaying a
little with music, drink and fatigue. 'Take me da
ncing.'
We walk out into the streets of Havana Vieja. Decayed and crumbling,
 Old
Havana is an eerie, empty quarter at night.
We stumble over rubble and 
around potholes, under hanging laundry and
through tall, broad arcades built
 by the Spanish against Cuba's fierce
tropical sun. Here and there are the r
emnants of an imperial finery financed
by slaves and sugar: an ornate stone 
church, a baroque opera house, a
pillared convent, a wall of Seville Moorish
 tiles, and matching pairs of
bronze lions along the tree-lined Prado.
But m
ostly there is inertia and neglect, decline and breakdown. We walk
gingerly.
 There is little lighting - electricity is a precious commodity in
Cuba toda
y. Neither, in these still streets, is there much traffic - there
is little 
petrol to fuel the hulking pre-revolutionary Buicks and Pontiacs,
the tinny 
post-revolutionary Skodas and Ladas, that lie salt-corroded and
rotting on e
very corner.
Nor is there any of the business, the exchange, the human trans
action that
is normally the heartbeat of a big city's life. Only occasionall
y in the
gloom do we pass a small boy raising water to an upper-floor apartm
ent with
a bucket and pulley, an old man smoking a fragrant cigar on the coo
l of a
doorstep.
Old Havana is jammed with tens of thousands of tenement dwe
llers; but with
nowhere to go, no money to spend, and nothing to spend it on
, they remain
indoors, comforted in the blue glow of Cuba's last accessible 
past-time, the
television soap opera.
'Nada . . . nada . . . nada . . . . ' 
mutters Mercedes as, one after
another, we pass the meagre window displays o
f government shops that have
nothing left to sell. I find them pathetic. Mer
cedes has little sense of
pathos - but a good deal of contempt - for state e
conomic planning that now
fails to provide even the bare minimum needed for 
survival.
The defiant gesturing continues, Castro's revolutionary avowals pe
rsist.
But, as the people of Cuba know to great personal cost, there are no

provisions on any known communist chart or model for the plunge of the last

four years. Even the name given to the post-Soviet age by the Cuban
leadersh
ip - the 'Special Period' - indicates its lack of certainty in the
progress 
of the revolution.
Well might the leaders lack confidence. Before the collap
se of the Soviet
Union in 1990, Cuba was consuming Dollars 8bn worth of good
s annually, most
of it garnered through special trade-and-aid agreements wit
h the east bloc.
Not only did the Soviet Union, happy with a permanent footh
old on the very
doorstep of the enemy camp, purchase Cuban sugar at above-wo
rld-market
prices, it also supplied the Caribbean client-state with subsidis
ed oil,
food, machinery, medicines, vehicles, military hardware, technical a
dvice,
and cheap loans.
With the fall of the Soviet Union, it all vanished o
vernight. The goodwill
dried up, the teachers went home, the agreements were
 cancelled, the ships
stopped calling in at Havana harbour.
Without foreign 
exchange, Cuban imports have slowed to a trickle. Without
raw materials, Cub
an factories have stopped operating. Without fertilisers
and pesticides, the
 Cuban sugar industry is floundering. Not only demanding
payment of a Dollar
s 30bn Cuban debt, Russia has now rejected as a risky
deal even the simplest
 form of trade - the bartering of oil for sugar. US
refusal to do business w
ith its revolutionary neighbour remains as firm as
ever.
Like an air-filled 
balloon, Cuba's prosperity - such as it was - has
suddenly blown up in the f
ace of its people, leaving little trace behind.
Cuba has stopped spending mo
ney that did not belong to it - the value of
annual consumption has shrunk f
rom the equivalent of Dollars 8bn to Dollars
1bn, with shortage and need eve
rywhere. Not long ago a comprehensive social
safety net, universal health ca
re and high educational standards made Cubans
the envy of the third world. T
oday they grub about in the wreckage of their
economy, no better off than th
e African disaster cases they used to assist,
and wonder how long the 'Speci
al Period' can possibly continue.
Two rolls of bread a day, one box of match
es a month, one bar of soap a
month, two portions of mince-and-soya paste a 
month, two pairs of underwear
a year . . . armed with her government-issue r
ation book, such is the level
of provision Mercedes now manages to obtain th
rough the state. Often not
even these meagre undertakings can be met. Merced
es has not seen soap in the
government shops for three months. 'Mierda de na
da,' she whispers, for good
measure.
At the end of the dark street, on the e
dge of Old Havana, we emerge into a
rare constellation of lights, the Hotel 
Plaza. No one, of course, manages to
live on the official ration, or on the 
official economy at all. It is around
the foreigner-frequented hotels that a
 parallel mechanism - a dollar-based
economy that pervades all sections of C
uban society - can be found in its
rawest, most distorted form.
For Cubans, 
life is an unending struggle, a daily series of problems which
must be resol
ved. There is a catch-all verb they apply to any action helping
them overcom
e their straitened circumstances - it is, simply, resolver, or
find a soluti
on. One can, for example, like my hosts Luis and Isabel,
resolve the questio
n of the spare bedroom by illegally renting it to
tourists. Consuelo down th
e road from Luis, on the other hand, has found her
own resolution in a suppl
y of black market chickens that do not officially
exist; much to Mercedes' a
nd my satisfaction, she runs a paladar, an illicit
back-room restaurant.
I a
m glad to have Mercedes by my side as we walk past the hotel entrance.
She i
s a sort of protection. For a good deal of 'resolving' in this part of
town 
takes place on the street, and involves separating foreigners from
their dol
lars. Cubans will go to desperate lengths to get hold of dollars,
for withou
t them there is no meat, fuel, clothing, pharmaceuticals,
electrical goods, 
household items or much of anything else.
Some of the denizens lurking in th
e shadows here simply beg. They want soap
for their babies, milk powder for 
their mothers. I spot one who has already
asked me for the shirt off my back
. These are not professional street
hustlers, but students, housewives, fath
ers, and there is no artfulness to
their approach. It makes their entreaties
 all the more painful.
Others have something to offer - themselves. Prostitu
tion is now widespread
in Havana, although there is a wide gap between hard 
core professionals and
those casual young women willing to stay the night af
ter an evening's
entertainment. Part of the problem is that there are many m
ore single women
in Havana than men; over the years conscription for the Ang
olan war, the
Mariel boat lift, the haemmorrhage of young men to Miami, has 
made available
young men scarce. A young man with ready money in his pocket 
is even rarer.
On my first visit to the Plaza I was ambushed by two teenage 
girls in risque
attire who steered me straight to the bar. Were they after d
aquiris, pina
coladas, whisky, I wondered? Far from it. They craved the now-
unavailable
treats of their childhood. One demanded a glass of milk, the oth
er a gooey,
chocolate-covered marshmallow.
Lounging outside the doors of the
 Plaza we meet Ramon and Anna, already
acquaintances of mine. Like many of H
avana's black marketeers, they are part
of a well organised system of theft 
and resale that operates in almost every
factory, warehouse, business and sh
op in Cuba. Ramon sells PPG-5, the
cholesterol-reducing miracle drug, fruit 
of Fidel's prestige medical
research project. Coincidentally, it commands a 
high street value for its
effects on male sexual potency. Anna acts as a str
eet lookout for Ramon.
Most societies would judge Ramon and Anna's professio
n criminal, their
behaviour corrupt. But in an official economy as maladjust
ed to social needs
as Cuba's, definitions of corruption hardly mean much; wh
at counts for
Cubans is a market-driven alternative that works. From the sid
ewalk, Ramon
tells me, he makes Dollars 5 to Dollars 10 dollars a day; in a 
state office
or factory he would not make five dollars a month.
Such a moral
ity is widely accepted. Neither of Mercedes' parents work the
street, but bo
th steal from the state. Her mother, a cigar roller, smuggles
cigars from th
e factory where she works. Her father, a petrol-tanker driver,
has an agreem
ent with the depot foreman for the falsifying of way-bills. It
is the only w
ay to keep food in the house.
Nor is the administration exempt from such beh
aviour. Ramon could never ply
his trade without the connivance of the police
 and his local Committee for
the Defense of the Revolution, the organisation
 that regulates Cuban life on
a city block-by-block basis. Ramon regularly t
urns over a percentage of
profits to his CDR chief. In its own interests the
 regime tolerates a
certain level of black marketeering and petty corruption
 - it relieves
pressure on the state to provide.
It also relieves Mercedes a
nd me of the task of finding an officially
licensed taxi. Just outside the g
low of the Plaza's lights a wheezing,
fly-by-night Moscovitch skulks. We cli
mb in and clatter along the Malecon
sea front, six lanes of deserted city-ce
ntre highway, to the 1830 Club.
Through the doors of the dance club lies ano
ther world, a brave and shiny
new Cuba in which failure might never have exi
sted.
In a seaside garden of rustling palm trees and well-kept lawns, a crow
d sits
scattered around an outdoor dance floor. They are well off, wealthy e
nough
to spend in an evening what most Cubans earn in six months. They are y
oung.
The men are casual and tanned. They smile a lot. The women are sleek, 
well
made up, alluring.
This is not exactly the old elite, the senior milita
ry, the party
ideologues, the command economy captains who grew up fighting 
in the
mountains with Fidel Castro. These are their children, the technocrat
ic
class, Cuba's new elite. They work for new joint ventures, in import-expo
rt
agencies, the tourist industry. They have access to dollars, to the outsi
de
world, to new ideas.
Mercedes and I sip rum daquiris, wander in the garde
n, dance to American
disco music. There is a Tropicana-style floor show - al
l sequins and legs.
Then a fashion show - casual opulence and legs again. Mo
re drinks, more
dancing. Mercedes is entranced. Her eyes sparkle, rove over 
the clothing,
the coloured cocktails, the happy couples.
Returning from the 
dance floor I meet a small-time Swiss businessman, a
maverick at the far edg
e of emerging markets. His face is flushed with
achievement - today through 
his Cuban partner he has purchased yet another
downtown Havana apartment at 
a rock-bottom price.
Cuba will change fast, he assures me. Already the signs
 are there, in the
recently-opened private markets for farmer's produce, in 
a new European
investment fund for Cuba, in rumours of foreign financing for
 the sugar
industry.
'In two or three years all this unpleasantness between 
Cuba and the US will
be patched up,' he beams with anticipation. 'Investment
s will come rolling
in. Then watch real estate prices rocket]'
In the taxi b
ack to Ramon and Isabel's I am perturbed. I am unable to make
the link betwe
en this gasping, exhausted city and the self-assured ease of
the 1830 Club. 
It all seems make-believe, I tell Mercedes.
I am still perturbed back in the
 room where the little table-fan whirs and
the radio continues pumping hot L
atin music into the night. Where will it
end, I ask Mercedes. Surely somethi
ng good must lie at the end of such hard
times?
The sparkle has left her eye
s. 'You still don't understand,' she says
quietly, reluctantly, shaking her 
head. 'That was not make-believe. That is
the future.
'Do you think because 
our economy is in ruins the state is in ruins? There
is something that count
s more in Cuba than economics. It is political power.
It is as strong as eve
r, as absolute and privileged as ever.
'The men who run this country see the
 writing on the wall. They know the old
times are gone forever. But do you t
hink they will surrender their places to
some new, local breed, or to Cubans
 screaming for their jobs from Miami?'
She pours herself a last glass of Pat
icruzados. 'Yesterday the men at the
1830 Club were good communists. Tomorro
w they will be good capitalists. The
lies will change, but the liars will be
 the same.'
And what, I ask, will happen to her patients, her neighbours, he
r
compatriots, the people of Old Havana?
Mercedes downs her glass, shivers, 
and closes her eyes. She is tired, and
bitter, and has the chronic victim's 
calm certainty of the future.
'Nothing,' she replies 'the elite shall remain
 the elite, with all their
power and privilege. The poor of Cuba shall remai
n the poor.'
She is whispering now, nearly asleep. 'It seems that is the way
 of the
world. They say we are the last state of our kind on earth. But are 
we not,
after all, much the same as everyone else?'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-

</XX>
<CN>CUZ  Cuba, Caribbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9611 Adm
inistration of General Economic Programs.
    P9721 International Affairs.
 
   P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<T
P>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lon
don Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-5210</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CK0B0AFQFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9211
27
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 NOV 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Barbadian
 collapse deepens shadow over Caribbean sugar - The region, faced with high 
costs and low productivity, relies on guaranteed market access </HEADLINE>
<
BYLINE>    By CANUTE JAMES </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE COLLAPSE of Barbados' sugar 
industry late last month is the latest
indication of the sometimes terminal 
difficulties which beset Caribbean
producers. The region is faced with high 
production costs and often low
productivity, and is unable to survive withou
t guaranteed access to markets
such as the European Community and the US, an
d which pay higher than
prevailing world market prices.
The problems caused 
by inefficiency and indebtedness are exacerbated by what
many producers see 
as a threat to current preferential market arrangements.
Many are worried by
 the recent reduction in US import quotas, and are
uncertain how they will f
are if the North American Free Trade Agreement is
implemented and Mexican pr
oduction becomes a market factor.
In the case of Barbados, the island has be
en unable to produce enough even
to meet its quota obligations to these guar
anteed markets. Efforts are under
way to jump-start the industry after the s
tate-owned Barbados National Bank,
exercising tighter credit control as part
 of a government austerity
programme, and which is owed Dollars 50m by the i
ndustry, suspended all
further loans.
This followed production of 55,000 ton
nes from the 1992 harvest, the lowest
in 60 years, according to official fig
ures. In order to make use of its
opportunities on the EC and US markets the
 island has had to import sugar to
meet domestic demand. Ironically, the col
lapse of the industry came after
indications that it was being put under new
 management by Booker Tate, a
subsidiary of Booker, the UK food and farming 
group.
The company has become an important factor in the region's troubled s
ugar
industry, and has been called in to help the industries in Guyana, Beli
ze
and St Kitts-Nevis, and to run two of Jamaica's nine mills. Trinidad and

Tobago is the only producer in the Commonwealth Caribbean in which Booker
Ta
te is not involved. In all cases the company contracted to give corporate
ma
nagement and technical services to sugar industries in the five countries.
I
t provides engineers, technologists, agriculturalists, economists,
marketing
 specialists and support staff.
The industries in both Guyana and Jamaica ha
ve attracted financial
assistance from multilateral institutions as a result
 of the management
contracts given to Booker Tate, But assessments to the co
mpany's
effectiveness differ in the two countries. Jamaican officials say th
e
performance of the two mills managed by the company since 1985 has been
'd
isappointing'.
Yet the case of Guyana shows that the regional sugar industry
 is not beyond
redemption. From output of 330,000 tonnes a year in the mid-1
970s, Guyana's
production, plagued by labour unrest and poor weather, slumpe
d to 135,000
tonnes in 1990. The industry declared shortfalls on its Europea
n Community
quota for three years, and shipped none of its quota to the US. 
Booker
Tate's takeover of the management of the industry has been followed,

however, by a decisive turnaround. Production is up this year and export
quo
tas have been met.
In the Dominican Republic, the region's second largest pr
oducer after Cuba,
the problems of financial viability have been compounded 
by a shortage of
labour. Foreign criticism of the treatment of workers from 
neighbouring
Haiti, and the subsequent expulsion of thousands of Haitian wor
kers, has
resulted in the state-owned producer suffering a painful drop in o
utput.
Production this year is 8 per cent less than the 326,000 tonnes of la
st year
and sugar has had to be imported to meet domestic demand.
The outloo
k for the industry, like that of others in the region, has been
depressed by
 the recent reduction in global imports by the US. The
Caribbean's cumulativ
e quota has been reduced by 11 per cent to 276,341
tonnes, causing an estima
ted Dollars 15m reduction in earnings. It is the
second consecutive cut for 
the Caribbean holders of US quotas, which were
allowed to supply 471,710 ton
nes in 1991.
Sugar industry officials in the region say one area of uncertai
nty is
Mexico's future access to the US market under the Nafta. They say Mex
ico's
current and modest US quota of 7,500 tonnes a year can be increased 20
-fold
in seven years, at the expense of existing suppliers.
Cuba's troubled 
industry has received a fillip with a new trade agreement
between the island
 and the Russian republic. Cuba will receive 23m barrels
of Russian oil a ye
ar for 2m tonnes of sugar - significantly less than the
country had sold in 
past years to the former Soviet Union. But the island's
economic problems ha
ve depressed output this year to just over 6.9m tonnes.
 -------------------
-------------------------------
            Caribbean Sugar Production
     
        ('000 tonnes, raw value)
 ------------------------------------------
--------
                      1987-88    1989-90   1991-92
 ---------------
-----------------------------------
Barbados                   81         69
        57
Cuba                    7,547      7,932     7,000
Dominican Rep.
            758        632       670
French W. Indies           82         4
6        38
Guyana                    178        135       238
Haiti        
              30         31        30
Jamaica                   225        2
19       224
Trinidad                   95        120       110
 -----------
---------------------------------------
Source: ED and F. Man.
 ------------
--------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 30 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 30 ==============================================
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<DOCNO>FT924-5210</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CK0B0AFQFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9211
27
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 NOV 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Barbadian
 collapse deepens shadow over Caribbean sugar - The region, faced with high 
costs and low productivity, relies on guaranteed market access </HEADLINE>
<
BYLINE>    By CANUTE JAMES </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE COLLAPSE of Barbados' sugar 
industry late last month is the latest
indication of the sometimes terminal 
difficulties which beset Caribbean
producers. The region is faced with high 
production costs and often low
productivity, and is unable to survive withou
t guaranteed access to markets
such as the European Community and the US, an
d which pay higher than
prevailing world market prices.
The problems caused 
by inefficiency and indebtedness are exacerbated by what
many producers see 
as a threat to current preferential market arrangements.
Many are worried by
 the recent reduction in US import quotas, and are
uncertain how they will f
are if the North American Free Trade Agreement is
implemented and Mexican pr
oduction becomes a market factor.
In the case of Barbados, the island has be
en unable to produce enough even
to meet its quota obligations to these guar
anteed markets. Efforts are under
way to jump-start the industry after the s
tate-owned Barbados National Bank,
exercising tighter credit control as part
 of a government austerity
programme, and which is owed Dollars 50m by the i
ndustry, suspended all
further loans.
This followed production of 55,000 ton
nes from the 1992 harvest, the lowest
in 60 years, according to official fig
ures. In order to make use of its
opportunities on the EC and US markets the
 island has had to import sugar to
meet domestic demand. Ironically, the col
lapse of the industry came after
indications that it was being put under new
 management by Booker Tate, a
subsidiary of Booker, the UK food and farming 
group.
The company has become an important factor in the region's troubled s
ugar
industry, and has been called in to help the industries in Guyana, Beli
ze
and St Kitts-Nevis, and to run two of Jamaica's nine mills. Trinidad and

Tobago is the only producer in the Commonwealth Caribbean in which Booker
Ta
te is not involved. In all cases the company contracted to give corporate
ma
nagement and technical services to sugar industries in the five countries.
I
t provides engineers, technologists, agriculturalists, economists,
marketing
 specialists and support staff.
The industries in both Guyana and Jamaica ha
ve attracted financial
assistance from multilateral institutions as a result
 of the management
contracts given to Booker Tate, But assessments to the co
mpany's
effectiveness differ in the two countries. Jamaican officials say th
e
performance of the two mills managed by the company since 1985 has been
'd
isappointing'.
Yet the case of Guyana shows that the regional sugar industry
 is not beyond
redemption. From output of 330,000 tonnes a year in the mid-1
970s, Guyana's
production, plagued by labour unrest and poor weather, slumpe
d to 135,000
tonnes in 1990. The industry declared shortfalls on its Europea
n Community
quota for three years, and shipped none of its quota to the US. 
Booker
Tate's takeover of the management of the industry has been followed,

however, by a decisive turnaround. Production is up this year and export
quo
tas have been met.
In the Dominican Republic, the region's second largest pr
oducer after Cuba,
the problems of financial viability have been compounded 
by a shortage of
labour. Foreign criticism of the treatment of workers from 
neighbouring
Haiti, and the subsequent expulsion of thousands of Haitian wor
kers, has
resulted in the state-owned producer suffering a painful drop in o
utput.
Production this year is 8 per cent less than the 326,000 tonnes of la
st year
and sugar has had to be imported to meet domestic demand.
The outloo
k for the industry, like that of others in the region, has been
depressed by
 the recent reduction in global imports by the US. The
Caribbean's cumulativ
e quota has been reduced by 11 per cent to 276,341
tonnes, causing an estima
ted Dollars 15m reduction in earnings. It is the
second consecutive cut for 
the Caribbean holders of US quotas, which were
allowed to supply 471,710 ton
nes in 1991.
Sugar industry officials in the region say one area of uncertai
nty is
Mexico's future access to the US market under the Nafta. They say Mex
ico's
current and modest US quota of 7,500 tonnes a year can be increased 20
-fold
in seven years, at the expense of existing suppliers.
Cuba's troubled 
industry has received a fillip with a new trade agreement
between the island
 and the Russian republic. Cuba will receive 23m barrels
of Russian oil a ye
ar for 2m tonnes of sugar - significantly less than the
country had sold in 
past years to the former Soviet Union. But the island's
economic problems ha
ve depressed output this year to just over 6.9m tonnes.
 -------------------
-------------------------------
            Caribbean Sugar Production
     
        ('000 tonnes, raw value)
 ------------------------------------------
--------
                      1987-88    1989-90   1991-92
 ---------------
-----------------------------------
Barbados                   81         69
        57
Cuba                    7,547      7,932     7,000
Dominican Rep.
            758        632       670
French W. Indies           82         4
6        38
Guyana                    178        135       238
Haiti        
              30         31        30
Jamaica                   225        2
19       224
Trinidad                   95        120       110
 -----------
---------------------------------------
Source: ED and F. Man.
 ------------
--------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 30 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 31 ==============================================
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<DOC>
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<PROFILE>_AN-EKBD9AA5FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>941
102
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER </BYLINE>
<DATELINE
>    MOSCOW, HAVANA </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
 to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
 exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit 
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
 countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba, 
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the 
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with

Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active - 
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, Eas
t Europe.
    CUZ  Cuba, Caribbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 
International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP
>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOCNO>FT944-12369</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EKBD9AA5FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>941
102
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER </BYLINE>
<DATELINE
>    MOSCOW, HAVANA </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
 to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
 exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit 
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
 countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba, 
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the 
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with

Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active - 
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, Eas
t Europe.
    CUZ  Cuba, Caribbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 
International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP
>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 33 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-1295</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EFXC1AF4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9406
24
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  24 JUN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar ind
ustries respond to adversity - Canute James reports on efforts to revive fla
gging productivity in the Caribbean </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CANUTE JAMES 
</BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Sugar producers in the Caribbean Community, whose major mar
ket is the
European Union, have been having a difficult time, and some have 
been forced
into financial and administrative restructuring to improve effic
iency and
production.
The problems have raised questions about the ability o
f some regional
producers to meet their quota obligations to the EU and the 
US.
Regional industries have benefitted from new loans, others from the
canc
ellation of debts, the servicing of which had been a burden on their
operati
ons. Elsewhere industries have called on new managements as part of
their re
structuring.
These smaller producers in the Caribbean, unlike Cuba and the D
ominican
Republic, have been forced to concentrate on satisfying their lucra
tive
markets in Europe, and some have been driven to import sugar for domest
ic
use.
Combined production in the Commonwealth Caribbean countries fell by 
3 per
cent to 732,000 tonnes last year, with St Kitts-Nevis, the smallest
pr
oducer, the only one to record an increase. The problems facing the
region's
 industry are illustrated by the state of the sector in Barbados,
which is u
ndergoing a USDollars 30m rehabilitation programme. The aim is to
improve th
e industry's efficiency, increase the level of mechanisation and
re-equip mi
lls, to enable higher production.
The island will have to import sugar this 
year to meet domestic demand
because all output from the current harvest is 
being shipped to Europe to
fulfil the quota to the EU. The industry will ach
ieve its production target
of 50,000 tonnes, but this is 4,000 tonnes less t
han the country's EU quota.
The additional sugar for Europe will come 'drawi
ng down on carry-over stock
from last year,' industry officials say. They de
ny that sugar will be
imported for transhipment to Europe as 'it would be in
 contravention of our
legal agreement with the EU for supplying sugar'.
The 
prospects for an improvement rest on the planned restructuring of the
indust
ry and the administrative skills of Booker Tate of the UK, which has
been co
ntracted to manage the industry. The Barbadians are clearly hoping
that Book
er Tate can emulate the success it has had in Guyana where
production last y
ear was slightly below that of 1992 but 50 per cent more
than 1991.
The impo
rtation of management skills four years ago was followed by a World
Bank loa
n of USDollars 15m to the Guyanese industry for the rehabilitation
of aspect
s of the industry, and to improve productivity. There has also been
improvem
ent of irrigation and drainage systems in the industry.
The growth in produc
tion, which was dramatically evident in 1992, is
continuing. Good weather an
d higher productivity lifted the country's sugar
production from the first o
f the industry's two harvests to 109,000 tonnes,
14,000 tonnes more than the
 first harvest of last year. The industry is
anticipating combined productio
n from both harvests this year at 250,000
tonnes, and if this is achieved it
 will he the highest annual output in the
past nine years, officials say.
Gu
yana will be able to meet its export commitments this year to the EU and
the
 US, as well as satisfying domestic demand.
The financial restructuring of t
he industry in Trinidad and Tobago has also
contributed to improved producti
on. The government recently assumed debts of
about USDollars 530m owed by th
e state-owned Caroni, the country's sole
producer. The company also recently
 received new funds of Dollars 21m for
financing pre-harvest operations.
Thi
s relief, and an improvement in the quality of canes and reduced labour
unre
st, helped to lift the country's sugar production from the 1994 harvest
to 1
27,612 tonnes, 17,000 tonnes more than last year, and the highest in 20
year
s, according to industry spokesmen. This will allow the industry easily
to m
eet its export quotas to the EU and the US, and a further rise in
production
 is forecast for next year.
Jamaica's hopes for significantly higher output 
than last year's 224,000
tonnes have been set back by prolonged labour unres
t and bad weather. A
strike by the industry's field and mill workers earlier
 this year to protest
at the slow pace of negotiations between their unions 
and mill owners, and
unseasonably heavy rains, have cut production by about 
25,000 tonnes. The
industry had been forecasting output of 245,000 tonnes th
is year.
The expected improvement was based on improved efficiency in the in
dustry
following the sale in January of four of five state-owned mills to lo
cal and
foreign investors. Planned retooling of the mills and improvements t
o
another four, which have always been in private hands, has led the industr
y
to forecast national output in the next two years at about 350,000 tonnes 
a
year.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XFZ  Caribbean.
    BBZ  Barbados
, Caribbean.
    TTZ  Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean.
    JMZ  Jamaica, Cari
bbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
</
IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Production.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
<
/TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 34 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-1295</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EFXC1AF4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9406
24
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  24 JUN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar ind
ustries respond to adversity - Canute James reports on efforts to revive fla
gging productivity in the Caribbean </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CANUTE JAMES 
</BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Sugar producers in the Caribbean Community, whose major mar
ket is the
European Union, have been having a difficult time, and some have 
been forced
into financial and administrative restructuring to improve effic
iency and
production.
The problems have raised questions about the ability o
f some regional
producers to meet their quota obligations to the EU and the 
US.
Regional industries have benefitted from new loans, others from the
canc
ellation of debts, the servicing of which had been a burden on their
operati
ons. Elsewhere industries have called on new managements as part of
their re
structuring.
These smaller producers in the Caribbean, unlike Cuba and the D
ominican
Republic, have been forced to concentrate on satisfying their lucra
tive
markets in Europe, and some have been driven to import sugar for domest
ic
use.
Combined production in the Commonwealth Caribbean countries fell by 
3 per
cent to 732,000 tonnes last year, with St Kitts-Nevis, the smallest
pr
oducer, the only one to record an increase. The problems facing the
region's
 industry are illustrated by the state of the sector in Barbados,
which is u
ndergoing a USDollars 30m rehabilitation programme. The aim is to
improve th
e industry's efficiency, increase the level of mechanisation and
re-equip mi
lls, to enable higher production.
The island will have to import sugar this 
year to meet domestic demand
because all output from the current harvest is 
being shipped to Europe to
fulfil the quota to the EU. The industry will ach
ieve its production target
of 50,000 tonnes, but this is 4,000 tonnes less t
han the country's EU quota.
The additional sugar for Europe will come 'drawi
ng down on carry-over stock
from last year,' industry officials say. They de
ny that sugar will be
imported for transhipment to Europe as 'it would be in
 contravention of our
legal agreement with the EU for supplying sugar'.
The 
prospects for an improvement rest on the planned restructuring of the
indust
ry and the administrative skills of Booker Tate of the UK, which has
been co
ntracted to manage the industry. The Barbadians are clearly hoping
that Book
er Tate can emulate the success it has had in Guyana where
production last y
ear was slightly below that of 1992 but 50 per cent more
than 1991.
The impo
rtation of management skills four years ago was followed by a World
Bank loa
n of USDollars 15m to the Guyanese industry for the rehabilitation
of aspect
s of the industry, and to improve productivity. There has also been
improvem
ent of irrigation and drainage systems in the industry.
The growth in produc
tion, which was dramatically evident in 1992, is
continuing. Good weather an
d higher productivity lifted the country's sugar
production from the first o
f the industry's two harvests to 109,000 tonnes,
14,000 tonnes more than the
 first harvest of last year. The industry is
anticipating combined productio
n from both harvests this year at 250,000
tonnes, and if this is achieved it
 will he the highest annual output in the
past nine years, officials say.
Gu
yana will be able to meet its export commitments this year to the EU and
the
 US, as well as satisfying domestic demand.
The financial restructuring of t
he industry in Trinidad and Tobago has also
contributed to improved producti
on. The government recently assumed debts of
about USDollars 530m owed by th
e state-owned Caroni, the country's sole
producer. The company also recently
 received new funds of Dollars 21m for
financing pre-harvest operations.
Thi
s relief, and an improvement in the quality of canes and reduced labour
unre
st, helped to lift the country's sugar production from the 1994 harvest
to 1
27,612 tonnes, 17,000 tonnes more than last year, and the highest in 20
year
s, according to industry spokesmen. This will allow the industry easily
to m
eet its export quotas to the EU and the US, and a further rise in
production
 is forecast for next year.
Jamaica's hopes for significantly higher output 
than last year's 224,000
tonnes have been set back by prolonged labour unres
t and bad weather. A
strike by the industry's field and mill workers earlier
 this year to protest
at the slow pace of negotiations between their unions 
and mill owners, and
unseasonably heavy rains, have cut production by about 
25,000 tonnes. The
industry had been forecasting output of 245,000 tonnes th
is year.
The expected improvement was based on improved efficiency in the in
dustry
following the sale in January of four of five state-owned mills to lo
cal and
foreign investors. Planned retooling of the mills and improvements t
o
another four, which have always been in private hands, has led the industr
y
to forecast national output in the next two years at about 350,000 tonnes 
a
year.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XFZ  Caribbean.
    BBZ  Barbados
, Caribbean.
    TTZ  Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean.
    JMZ  Jamaica, Cari
bbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
</
IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Production.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
<
/TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 35 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 36 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 37 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 38 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 39 ==============================================
Transaction #:     39       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)

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============= Transaction # 40 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-9644</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBKBQACWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
11
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
 sugar crop forecast </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAMIAN FRASER </BYLINE>
<DAT
ELINE>    MEXICO CITY </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
 to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
 statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
 by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of 
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested 
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
 this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the

former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
 exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate 
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
 and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
 tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless 
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
 Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
</TE
XT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 41 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-9644</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBKBQACWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
11
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
 sugar crop forecast </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAMIAN FRASER </BYLINE>
<DAT
ELINE>    MEXICO CITY </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
 to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
 statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
 by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of 
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested 
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
 this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the

former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
 exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate 
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
 and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
 tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless 
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
 Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
</TE
XT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 42 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-9444</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEGBFAFXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in 
Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee, 
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
 a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European 
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower 
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
 robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
 cent in electronics
 -the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
 Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.

The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control

systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by

euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
 -has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
 there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, 
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have 
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says 
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly, 
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector  - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation 
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
 reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated 
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
 Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.

The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's 
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of 
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
 it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
 frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed

for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
 welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is

water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
 industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they

want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the

applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
 disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
 strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based 
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
 can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 49 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-9444</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEGBFAFXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in 
Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee, 
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
 a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European 
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower 
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
 robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
 cent in electronics
 -the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
 Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.

The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control

systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by

euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
 -has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
 there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, 
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have 
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says 
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly, 
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector  - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation 
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
 reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated 
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
 Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.

The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's 
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of 
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
 it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
 frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed

for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
 welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is

water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
 industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they

want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the

applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
 disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
 strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based 
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
 can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 50 ==============================================
Transaction #:     50       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4414</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is 
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
 to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are 
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their 
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
 in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product

development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest 
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated 
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese

counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
 GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used 
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
 are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added 
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
 automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
 paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with

the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and

Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
 area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in 
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
 likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
 the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page III </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 51 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4414</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is 
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
 to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are 
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their 
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
 in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product

development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest 
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated 
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese

counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
 GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used 
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
 are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added 
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
 automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
 paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with

the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and

Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
 area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in 
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
 likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
 the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page III </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 52 ==============================================
Transaction #:     52       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-769</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DF0AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait
ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th
e operating theatre </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT
>
YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai
n
tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the

procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's

most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be

more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical
r
evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over
t
he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses
in
struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be
possi
ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away,
using a c
ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality.
The most striking sign
 of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting
to welcome robotic assi
stants into their operating theatres. Within the past
few months, robots hav
e helped to carry out hip replacements in California,
prostate operations in
 London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later
this year, gall bladder
 removal, hernia repair and a variety of other
abdominal operations will be 
added to the list of robotic accomplishments.
Despite this, even the most en
thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be
several years before they would c
onsider leaving a robot to operate on its
own.
The late Hap Paul, chief inve
ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We
have to move very slowly and ca
refully because one false move by a surgical
robot - and this whole technolo
gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the
world's largest and best-finan
ced project in medical robotics. Since
November, 10 patients at Sutter gener
al hospital in Sacramento have had hip
replacements with the aid of Robodoc,
 a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve
the cavity for an implant in the thi
gh bone.
Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical
 Systems,
the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from 
IBM, is
forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug
Adm
inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in
th
ree US hospitals.
Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the 
skilled hands of a
human specialist? The most important reason is that an el
ectronic arm is
capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b
est-trained
surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat
ients will
be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot
her
receiving conventional hip replacements.
Surgical robots promise more th
an improvements in existing procedures, says
Patrick Finlay, managing direct
or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK
medical robotics company based at B
eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced
collateral damage and greater precisio
n of the robot will make it possible
to do operations that would otherwise b
e too risky to contemplate. For
example, a tumour very close to the optic ne
rve can be tackled without
making the patient blind.'
Several different type
s of surgical robot are under development around the
world. Robodoc is an 'a
ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue.
'Orthopaedic work is an attrac
tive application because the robot is working
on hard tissue that doesn't mo
ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an
engineer specialising in medical 
robotics at Imperial College, London.
Most operations, however, involve cutt
ing soft tissues - a task that is more
delicate than carving bone. So far, o
nly 'passive' robots have been used for
this type of surgery. They may move 
instruments inside the patient, under
the surgeon's direction, but they do n
ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam.
An example is Laparobot, which Armstro
ng Projects is developing with Mark
Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic
. Laparobot will give someone
carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of
 'walking around' inside the
patient's body, using tele-presence techniques.
 A keyhole surgeon views the
operating site with a miniature video camera at
 the end of a thin optical
tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h
ole (typically, in the
tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope,
 projects the scene on
to a TV screen above the patient.
Normally, an assist
ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the
surgeon needs a differe
nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of
the surgeon's head and 
moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a
foot button and moves h
is head to the left, the robot will change the view
inside the patient's bod
y. For this year's initial trials at the London
Clinic, Laparobot will work 
with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage
will be for the surgeon to 
wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the
impression of being immers
ed in the operating environment. As he looks
around, the scene will change a
s though he were actually inside the
abdominal cavity.
Further in the future
 lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger
movements to the control 
of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot
will make the surgery more 
efficient - less stressful for the surgeon,
faster and more accurate, and wi
th less risk of damage to the patient,' says
Ornstein.
Armstrong is also wor
king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National
Hospital for Neurolog
y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain
surgery. By the end 
of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an
'image-guided robot' that wi
ll help the surgeon position his instruments at
the correct point in the bra
in to perform the operation. The next stage will
be for Neurobot itself to i
nsert the instruments.
A surgical robot is given as much prior information a
s possible about
relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o
r MRI scan. Its
computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. 
Although the
surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o
n the
computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp
ected
events.
Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's
 head. If it
detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro
mpt the
surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak
ing the
new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until 
the
surgeon has signalled his approval.
Finlay says a good indicator of prog
ress in surgical robotics will be the
increasing amount of freedom given to 
the robot. 'Although the surgeon will
never cease to participate, it is real
istic to envisage a situation similar
to the relationship between an airline
r captain and his autopilot, in which
the human provides a supervisory and m
onitoring role and is available to
take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa
ys.
The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In

tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo
n
uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of
m
iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot,
althoug
h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in
case the
 system crashed.
Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe
ty. Yet, as
Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo
ts operating
on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor
k in metal
cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa
ctory
robots going out of control shows the need for such rules).
'There are
 two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable
to start ou
t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level
software system t
o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure.
But, in my view, t
hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the
robot from the bas
ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every
level.'
That means givin
g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with
duplicated softwar
e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond
pre-defined limits. A
nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising
surgeon's hand to hit the 
stop button in time to avoid damage if all the
safety systems fail. Demonstr
ating safety is not enough, though. Growing
concerns about the financial cos
ts of medical care are forcing both public
health authorities and private ho
spitals to demand evidence that new
technology will deliver benefits that ou
tweigh its expense.
Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la
rge-scale clinical
trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica
l equipment have
been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen
t. A report on
medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv
isory Council
on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep
tion of
pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because
 it
'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.'
Peter Doyl
e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical
research committ
ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that
has been introdu
ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says
the National He
alth Service should require all new medical devices to be
assessed under con
trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured.
Miles Irving, pro
fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital,
says that such a
ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face
strong consumer p
ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been
properly evaluated
.'
Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc
.
'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this

as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have

to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a
publi
city stunt for them.'
Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U
niversity, US
experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its
elf as an
indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc
e to prove
its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and 
more flashy
machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation.
 The
introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi
lar
competitive pressures in the UK.
ISS believes its clinical trial will en
able orthopaedic hospitals to justify
buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin
g 400 hip replacements a year, on the
basis that implants from robotic opera
tions last longer than those inserted
manually and so save money in the long
 run. But the recent history of
medical research and technology, from antibi
otics to diagnostic scanners,
shows that while each development can be justi
fied in isolation as being
cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs
tantially to the financial
burden of health care by creating new demand from
 patients and adding to the
number of elderly people in the population.
Two 
decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a
purely ma
nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car
factory, s
urgical robots can only make the process more expensive.
Enthusiastic medica
l technologists can answer any question except one: how
will we pay for it?

</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Armstrong Projects.
    Imperial Chemical
 Industries.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>

<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments.
    P38
42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies.
    P8099 Health and Allied Services, N
EC.
    P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Finan
cial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 53 ==============================================
Transaction #:     53       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-769</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DF0AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait
ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th
e operating theatre </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT
>
YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai
n
tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the

procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's

most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be

more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical
r
evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over
t
he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses
in
struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be
possi
ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away,
using a c
ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality.
The most striking sign
 of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting
to welcome robotic assi
stants into their operating theatres. Within the past
few months, robots hav
e helped to carry out hip replacements in California,
prostate operations in
 London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later
this year, gall bladder
 removal, hernia repair and a variety of other
abdominal operations will be 
added to the list of robotic accomplishments.
Despite this, even the most en
thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be
several years before they would c
onsider leaving a robot to operate on its
own.
The late Hap Paul, chief inve
ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We
have to move very slowly and ca
refully because one false move by a surgical
robot - and this whole technolo
gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the
world's largest and best-finan
ced project in medical robotics. Since
November, 10 patients at Sutter gener
al hospital in Sacramento have had hip
replacements with the aid of Robodoc,
 a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve
the cavity for an implant in the thi
gh bone.
Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical
 Systems,
the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from 
IBM, is
forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug
Adm
inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in
th
ree US hospitals.
Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the 
skilled hands of a
human specialist? The most important reason is that an el
ectronic arm is
capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b
est-trained
surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat
ients will
be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot
her
receiving conventional hip replacements.
Surgical robots promise more th
an improvements in existing procedures, says
Patrick Finlay, managing direct
or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK
medical robotics company based at B
eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced
collateral damage and greater precisio
n of the robot will make it possible
to do operations that would otherwise b
e too risky to contemplate. For
example, a tumour very close to the optic ne
rve can be tackled without
making the patient blind.'
Several different type
s of surgical robot are under development around the
world. Robodoc is an 'a
ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue.
'Orthopaedic work is an attrac
tive application because the robot is working
on hard tissue that doesn't mo
ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an
engineer specialising in medical 
robotics at Imperial College, London.
Most operations, however, involve cutt
ing soft tissues - a task that is more
delicate than carving bone. So far, o
nly 'passive' robots have been used for
this type of surgery. They may move 
instruments inside the patient, under
the surgeon's direction, but they do n
ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam.
An example is Laparobot, which Armstro
ng Projects is developing with Mark
Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic
. Laparobot will give someone
carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of
 'walking around' inside the
patient's body, using tele-presence techniques.
 A keyhole surgeon views the
operating site with a miniature video camera at
 the end of a thin optical
tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h
ole (typically, in the
tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope,
 projects the scene on
to a TV screen above the patient.
Normally, an assist
ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the
surgeon needs a differe
nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of
the surgeon's head and 
moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a
foot button and moves h
is head to the left, the robot will change the view
inside the patient's bod
y. For this year's initial trials at the London
Clinic, Laparobot will work 
with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage
will be for the surgeon to 
wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the
impression of being immers
ed in the operating environment. As he looks
around, the scene will change a
s though he were actually inside the
abdominal cavity.
Further in the future
 lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger
movements to the control 
of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot
will make the surgery more 
efficient - less stressful for the surgeon,
faster and more accurate, and wi
th less risk of damage to the patient,' says
Ornstein.
Armstrong is also wor
king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National
Hospital for Neurolog
y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain
surgery. By the end 
of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an
'image-guided robot' that wi
ll help the surgeon position his instruments at
the correct point in the bra
in to perform the operation. The next stage will
be for Neurobot itself to i
nsert the instruments.
A surgical robot is given as much prior information a
s possible about
relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o
r MRI scan. Its
computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. 
Although the
surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o
n the
computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp
ected
events.
Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's
 head. If it
detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro
mpt the
surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak
ing the
new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until 
the
surgeon has signalled his approval.
Finlay says a good indicator of prog
ress in surgical robotics will be the
increasing amount of freedom given to 
the robot. 'Although the surgeon will
never cease to participate, it is real
istic to envisage a situation similar
to the relationship between an airline
r captain and his autopilot, in which
the human provides a supervisory and m
onitoring role and is available to
take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa
ys.
The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In

tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo
n
uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of
m
iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot,
althoug
h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in
case the
 system crashed.
Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe
ty. Yet, as
Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo
ts operating
on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor
k in metal
cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa
ctory
robots going out of control shows the need for such rules).
'There are
 two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable
to start ou
t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level
software system t
o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure.
But, in my view, t
hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the
robot from the bas
ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every
level.'
That means givin
g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with
duplicated softwar
e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond
pre-defined limits. A
nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising
surgeon's hand to hit the 
stop button in time to avoid damage if all the
safety systems fail. Demonstr
ating safety is not enough, though. Growing
concerns about the financial cos
ts of medical care are forcing both public
health authorities and private ho
spitals to demand evidence that new
technology will deliver benefits that ou
tweigh its expense.
Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la
rge-scale clinical
trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica
l equipment have
been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen
t. A report on
medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv
isory Council
on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep
tion of
pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because
 it
'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.'
Peter Doyl
e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical
research committ
ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that
has been introdu
ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says
the National He
alth Service should require all new medical devices to be
assessed under con
trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured.
Miles Irving, pro
fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital,
says that such a
ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face
strong consumer p
ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been
properly evaluated
.'
Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc
.
'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this

as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have

to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a
publi
city stunt for them.'
Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U
niversity, US
experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its
elf as an
indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc
e to prove
its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and 
more flashy
machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation.
 The
introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi
lar
competitive pressures in the UK.
ISS believes its clinical trial will en
able orthopaedic hospitals to justify
buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin
g 400 hip replacements a year, on the
basis that implants from robotic opera
tions last longer than those inserted
manually and so save money in the long
 run. But the recent history of
medical research and technology, from antibi
otics to diagnostic scanners,
shows that while each development can be justi
fied in isolation as being
cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs
tantially to the financial
burden of health care by creating new demand from
 patients and adding to the
number of elderly people in the population.
Two 
decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a
purely ma
nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car
factory, s
urgical robots can only make the process more expensive.
Enthusiastic medica
l technologists can answer any question except one: how
will we pay for it?

</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Armstrong Projects.
    Imperial Chemical
 Industries.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>

<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments.
    P38
42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies.
    P8099 Health and Allied Services, N
EC.
    P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Finan
cial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 54 ==============================================
Transaction #:     54       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In 
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those 
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -

which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were

some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,

it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for

robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke

singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food 
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in

robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing

power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which 
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per 
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build 
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent 
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to 
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F & 
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m 
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European 
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the 
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 55 ==============================================
Transaction #:     55       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:17:57
Selec. Rec. #:      4

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Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In 
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those 
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -

which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were

some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,

it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for

robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke

singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food 
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in

robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing

power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which 
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per 
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build 
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent 
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to 
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F & 
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m 
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European 
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the 
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 56 ==============================================
Transaction #:     56       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
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Selec. Rec. #:      5

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review 
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the 
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack 
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built 
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes 
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures - 
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also 
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where 
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.

A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which 
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software 
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>

Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 57 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review 
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the 
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack 
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built 
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes 
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures - 
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also 
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where 
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.

A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which 
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software 
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>

Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 58 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 59 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 60 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    
By CHRIS BARRIE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo
st difficult to build and the
chances are that he or she will name the engin
e or the car body.
In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive
, task is when
engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and 
fixed in the
painted car body - a process known as final assembly.
To please
 the customer the car company must offer many different options on
each basi
c car.
Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line 
has to
cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics,

equipment, and tinted glass.
Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo
od plant on Merseyside. There
are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit
ted to this car depending on
colour and specification.
Similarly there are u
p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60
variations in the door mirr
ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the
door trim panels according to
 the model mix being built at the plant.
The complexity of choosing the righ
t component and fitting it into the right
model has left these areas of the 
factory dominated by men and women, not
machines. It has also made this part
 of car construction the area where, on
the surface, greatest efficiency gai
ns should be possible.
The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an
 international study
carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
y - found that final
assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va
lue of the car, a
significant proportion.
Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho
urs of assembly time per car to carry out
final assembly, compared with four
 hours to paint the car and five to weld
it together (direct labour only).
B
y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours

of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body
cons
truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese.
There is no escape
 from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on
final assembly. Custo
mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options.
And in any case it is n
ot the complexity itself which makes a factory
efficient. The IMVP study sug
gested that the factories coping with the most
complex cars were also the mo
st productive, and they were Japanese.
So what are the solutions to making f
inal assembly more efficient? Needless
to say, companies are choosing differ
ent ways ahead.
The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has 
already been
done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men.
 Machines
will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta
ndards.
The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f
ewer
people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan,
m
achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not.
There is certa
inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps
carried out by
 automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In
Japan the equivale
nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per
cent of its actio
n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan.
Automation suppliers are co
nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai
Warn, Brussels-based manag
er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics,
says automation is just bec
oming cost-effective in final assembly.
He estimates that the cost of robots
 has fallen by 30 per cent in the past
five years while their performance ha
s risen by the same amount over the
same period.
Mr Warn estimates that the 
real advance in automation will come in the next
two to three years as new c
ars come on stream having been designed with
automation in mind.
But it is w
orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you
make it ea
sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at
automating fin
al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears
to have ruled 
it out as still not cost effective.
But there are companies that have automa
ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo
car on highly automated lines at Cassino i
n Italy. The factory has more than
100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor
e than 1200 wire guided trollies
and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th
e most highly automated factory
in the world.
Similarly, Volkswagen builds t
he Golf on highly-automated lines, while
Citroen uses automation to carry ou
t large numbers of final assembly tasks
on the XM executive car at Rennes in
 France.
But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of
sop
histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet
the c
omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to
indirect c
osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems.
Professor Dan Jones of
 Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will
only be cost-effective 
if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means
Fiat will need another l
ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning
Tipo production on and 
off according to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, automation can inhibit new m
odel design by forcing engineers to
cut costs by using tooling installed for
 the old model. The Volkswagen Golf
is often cited as a case in point.
Inste
ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to
automat
ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates
tasks tha
t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation
should be us
ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the
labour-intensive pinchpoin
ts on a production line where workforce numbers
may be reduced but the autom
ation left with an impossibly complicated job -
and the people with an impos
sibly boring set of simple jobs.
Instead of being concerned with machines, s
ome managers are turning to two
sets of people for help: the workforce and t
he supplier.
Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective
. Rover
achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its

workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i
t
went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one

of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the
manageme
nt skill in running the factory efficiently.
All car companies will simplify
 their own tasks by asking suppliers to do
more. Instead of assembling cars 
under one roof, car companies will receive
built-up modules such as dashboar
ds, seats or mouldings ready for
installation into the car.
But whichever ro
ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right.
Automation can be
 hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 61 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    
By CHRIS BARRIE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo
st difficult to build and the
chances are that he or she will name the engin
e or the car body.
In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive
, task is when
engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and 
fixed in the
painted car body - a process known as final assembly.
To please
 the customer the car company must offer many different options on
each basi
c car.
Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line 
has to
cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics,

equipment, and tinted glass.
Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo
od plant on Merseyside. There
are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit
ted to this car depending on
colour and specification.
Similarly there are u
p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60
variations in the door mirr
ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the
door trim panels according to
 the model mix being built at the plant.
The complexity of choosing the righ
t component and fitting it into the right
model has left these areas of the 
factory dominated by men and women, not
machines. It has also made this part
 of car construction the area where, on
the surface, greatest efficiency gai
ns should be possible.
The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an
 international study
carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
y - found that final
assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va
lue of the car, a
significant proportion.
Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho
urs of assembly time per car to carry out
final assembly, compared with four
 hours to paint the car and five to weld
it together (direct labour only).
B
y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours

of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body
cons
truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese.
There is no escape
 from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on
final assembly. Custo
mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options.
And in any case it is n
ot the complexity itself which makes a factory
efficient. The IMVP study sug
gested that the factories coping with the most
complex cars were also the mo
st productive, and they were Japanese.
So what are the solutions to making f
inal assembly more efficient? Needless
to say, companies are choosing differ
ent ways ahead.
The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has 
already been
done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men.
 Machines
will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta
ndards.
The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f
ewer
people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan,
m
achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not.
There is certa
inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps
carried out by
 automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In
Japan the equivale
nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per
cent of its actio
n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan.
Automation suppliers are co
nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai
Warn, Brussels-based manag
er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics,
says automation is just bec
oming cost-effective in final assembly.
He estimates that the cost of robots
 has fallen by 30 per cent in the past
five years while their performance ha
s risen by the same amount over the
same period.
Mr Warn estimates that the 
real advance in automation will come in the next
two to three years as new c
ars come on stream having been designed with
automation in mind.
But it is w
orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you
make it ea
sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at
automating fin
al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears
to have ruled 
it out as still not cost effective.
But there are companies that have automa
ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo
car on highly automated lines at Cassino i
n Italy. The factory has more than
100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor
e than 1200 wire guided trollies
and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th
e most highly automated factory
in the world.
Similarly, Volkswagen builds t
he Golf on highly-automated lines, while
Citroen uses automation to carry ou
t large numbers of final assembly tasks
on the XM executive car at Rennes in
 France.
But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of
sop
histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet
the c
omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to
indirect c
osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems.
Professor Dan Jones of
 Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will
only be cost-effective 
if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means
Fiat will need another l
ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning
Tipo production on and 
off according to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, automation can inhibit new m
odel design by forcing engineers to
cut costs by using tooling installed for
 the old model. The Volkswagen Golf
is often cited as a case in point.
Inste
ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to
automat
ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates
tasks tha
t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation
should be us
ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the
labour-intensive pinchpoin
ts on a production line where workforce numbers
may be reduced but the autom
ation left with an impossibly complicated job -
and the people with an impos
sibly boring set of simple jobs.
Instead of being concerned with machines, s
ome managers are turning to two
sets of people for help: the workforce and t
he supplier.
Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective
. Rover
achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its

workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i
t
went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one

of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the
manageme
nt skill in running the factory efficiently.
All car companies will simplify
 their own tasks by asking suppliers to do
more. Instead of assembling cars 
under one roof, car companies will receive
built-up modules such as dashboar
ds, seats or mouldings ready for
installation into the car.
But whichever ro
ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right.
Automation can be
 hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In 
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those 
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -

which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were

some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,

it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for

robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke

singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food 
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in

robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing

power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which 
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per 
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build 
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent 
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to 
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F & 
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m 
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European 
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the 
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 65 ==============================================
Transaction #:     65       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In 
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those 
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -

which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were

some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,

it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for

robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke

singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food 
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in

robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing

power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which 
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per 
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build 
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent 
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to 
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F & 
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m 
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European 
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the 
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 66 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review 
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the 
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack 
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built 
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes 
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures - 
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also 
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where 
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.

A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which 
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software 
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>

Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 67 ==============================================
Transaction #:     67       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review 
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the 
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack 
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built 
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes 
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures - 
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also 
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where 
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.

A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which 
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software 
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>

Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 68 ==============================================
Transaction #:     68       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-138</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQACXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3
): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai
ded Design, slower growth but healthy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXT
ER </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    THE world market for Cadcam </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
co
mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but
m
any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the

growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years.
After the phen
omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at
rates of a me
re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to
Dataquest, t
he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth
Dollars 13.
9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by
1995.
Most 
big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the
level 
of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial
sector 
to another. While this means that some markets will see only
incremental gro
wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful
installations are 
keen to come back and buy more.
Much of the growth in the next few years, th
erefore, will come from a
combination of new products and new applications t
o tempt long-standing
users, and new customers.
In the latter category some 
UK machine tool companies, for example, are only
now replacing their draught
sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because
the cost of the hardware is f
alling but also because their clients demand
it. As with robotics, the use o
f Cadcam is spreading to smaller
manufacturing companies, and particularly t
he subcontractors in the
automotive and aerospace industries.
Mr Roger Smedl
ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo
International, rem
arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than
Pounds 1,000 per head 
in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and
chair.
Now, with some 
computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including
software, capital exp
enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number
of design companies h
ave gone out of business because they could not finance
a switch to computer
s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending
Pounds 1.5m a year o
n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based
International Automotiv
e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X
system from Computervi
sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build
and prototyping service
s to big automotive manufacturers.
IAD has been a customer of Computervision
, one of the world's leading Cadcam
suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes
, a UK marketing consultant for
Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc
h as Rover and Ford are asking
their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc
am systems are compliant - a
trend that is being driven by the desire for co
ncurrent engineering (design
for manufacturing.)
Computervision, part of Pri
me Computer, is one of a handful of big players
in an industry which continu
es to see new niche products and companies
emerging, and thus boasts dozens 
of companies with revenues so small that
they hardly register at all. Most o
f these are US companies, followed by
European groups, with Japan back in th
ird place.
Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie
s, even if
sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l
arger
players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition.
An example of the 
latter was the acquisition by Computervision of
Massachusetts-based Premise,
 whose technology extends Cadcam back to the
sketching, or back-of-an-envelo
pe stage in the creation of a design. This
process, known as conceptual engi
neering, is generating widespread interest
among manufacturers.
There have b
een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the
late 1980s,
 caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits,
has left sev
eral companies by the wayside.
The electronic design automation (EDA) sector
 in particular experienced
particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst
ems bought Cadnetics in
1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t
o its bankruptcy filing
in August. In January, the much stronger US company 
Intergraph snapped up
Dazix for Dollars 14m.
If the established companies pl
ay their cards right, they ought to be able
to avoid Dazix's fate. There are
 significant opportunities in many
geographic and product markets, and the b
ig suppliers with marketing muscle
are best placed to exploit them.
Mr Jim T
ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35
per cent
 share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the
biggest m
arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of
reunification. 
Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power
network all of
fer scope for Cadcam sales.
Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil
l see its share slip from 35
per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while 
Asia will maintain its 28 per
cent share.
In product sectors, Mr Tully sees 
the fastest growth in the geographic
information systems (GIS) sector, where
 Intergraph is the undisputed leader.
'There's a great deal of interest in g
etting maps on to computer systems,'
he says.
The mechanical sector, which i
s by far the largest, is growing very slowly,
but even here there are opport
unities. In particular, users in this sector
are interested in so-called kno
wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An
example is a system developed by the
 small US supplier Rasna, which will
design products such as car bumpers vir
tually automatically, minimising
weight and performing stress analysis on th
e basis of a few parameters and
criteria.
Two other trends look like becomin
g increasingly significant for the
industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys
tems have been mutually
incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their 
system have faced a
difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch
anging, because of
'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th
ird-party Cadcam to
be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli
er's product line.
'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to 
a lift to growth,'
he says.
Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market 
place opening up -
engineering data management.
Cadcam, he says, was a reaso
nably controlled environment in the early 1980s
with the host mainframes loo
king after files. But as engineering companies
have been forced to move more
 quickly, it has become more important to find
where information resides in 
a company.
Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba
sed on a
workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for 
EDM to
control data more closely.
There is probably no better way of assessi
ng the industry's prospects than
to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing, 
the introduction of a new
generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th
e risk of design mistakes.
The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p
rogramme supplied by
Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st
ress analysis system.
Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes
, Catia will enable
Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed
 completely on
computer.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lond
on Page II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 69 ==============================================
Transaction #:     69       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-138</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQACXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3
): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai
ded Design, slower growth but healthy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXT
ER </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    THE world market for Cadcam </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
co
mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but
m
any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the

growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years.
After the phen
omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at
rates of a me
re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to
Dataquest, t
he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth
Dollars 13.
9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by
1995.
Most 
big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the
level 
of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial
sector 
to another. While this means that some markets will see only
incremental gro
wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful
installations are 
keen to come back and buy more.
Much of the growth in the next few years, th
erefore, will come from a
combination of new products and new applications t
o tempt long-standing
users, and new customers.
In the latter category some 
UK machine tool companies, for example, are only
now replacing their draught
sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because
the cost of the hardware is f
alling but also because their clients demand
it. As with robotics, the use o
f Cadcam is spreading to smaller
manufacturing companies, and particularly t
he subcontractors in the
automotive and aerospace industries.
Mr Roger Smedl
ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo
International, rem
arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than
Pounds 1,000 per head 
in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and
chair.
Now, with some 
computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including
software, capital exp
enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number
of design companies h
ave gone out of business because they could not finance
a switch to computer
s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending
Pounds 1.5m a year o
n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based
International Automotiv
e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X
system from Computervi
sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build
and prototyping service
s to big automotive manufacturers.
IAD has been a customer of Computervision
, one of the world's leading Cadcam
suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes
, a UK marketing consultant for
Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc
h as Rover and Ford are asking
their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc
am systems are compliant - a
trend that is being driven by the desire for co
ncurrent engineering (design
for manufacturing.)
Computervision, part of Pri
me Computer, is one of a handful of big players
in an industry which continu
es to see new niche products and companies
emerging, and thus boasts dozens 
of companies with revenues so small that
they hardly register at all. Most o
f these are US companies, followed by
European groups, with Japan back in th
ird place.
Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie
s, even if
sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l
arger
players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition.
An example of the 
latter was the acquisition by Computervision of
Massachusetts-based Premise,
 whose technology extends Cadcam back to the
sketching, or back-of-an-envelo
pe stage in the creation of a design. This
process, known as conceptual engi
neering, is generating widespread interest
among manufacturers.
There have b
een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the
late 1980s,
 caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits,
has left sev
eral companies by the wayside.
The electronic design automation (EDA) sector
 in particular experienced
particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst
ems bought Cadnetics in
1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t
o its bankruptcy filing
in August. In January, the much stronger US company 
Intergraph snapped up
Dazix for Dollars 14m.
If the established companies pl
ay their cards right, they ought to be able
to avoid Dazix's fate. There are
 significant opportunities in many
geographic and product markets, and the b
ig suppliers with marketing muscle
are best placed to exploit them.
Mr Jim T
ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35
per cent
 share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the
biggest m
arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of
reunification. 
Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power
network all of
fer scope for Cadcam sales.
Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil
l see its share slip from 35
per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while 
Asia will maintain its 28 per
cent share.
In product sectors, Mr Tully sees 
the fastest growth in the geographic
information systems (GIS) sector, where
 Intergraph is the undisputed leader.
'There's a great deal of interest in g
etting maps on to computer systems,'
he says.
The mechanical sector, which i
s by far the largest, is growing very slowly,
but even here there are opport
unities. In particular, users in this sector
are interested in so-called kno
wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An
example is a system developed by the
 small US supplier Rasna, which will
design products such as car bumpers vir
tually automatically, minimising
weight and performing stress analysis on th
e basis of a few parameters and
criteria.
Two other trends look like becomin
g increasingly significant for the
industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys
tems have been mutually
incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their 
system have faced a
difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch
anging, because of
'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th
ird-party Cadcam to
be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli
er's product line.
'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to 
a lift to growth,'
he says.
Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market 
place opening up -
engineering data management.
Cadcam, he says, was a reaso
nably controlled environment in the early 1980s
with the host mainframes loo
king after files. But as engineering companies
have been forced to move more
 quickly, it has become more important to find
where information resides in 
a company.
Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba
sed on a
workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for 
EDM to
control data more closely.
There is probably no better way of assessi
ng the industry's prospects than
to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing, 
the introduction of a new
generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th
e risk of design mistakes.
The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p
rogramme supplied by
Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st
ress analysis system.
Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes
, Catia will enable
Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed
 completely on
computer.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lond
on Page II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 70 ==============================================
Transaction #:     70       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:32
Selec. Rec. #:      7

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Boolean Conjunctions:

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-2017</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXAWABGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Survey of Information and Communicatio
ns Technology (23): Boost for productivity - Manufacturing industry </HEADLI
NE>
<BYLINE>    By PEGGY SALZ-TRAUTMAN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
AS manufacturing ind
ustry has sought in recent years to boost production and
cut costs, it has o
ften turned to the technocrats for solutions. Managers
have believed that in
vestment in information systems (IS) and manufacturing
technologies alone wo
uld improve the production process - the rest would
take care of itself.
Thi
s limited view, according to the Frankfurt-based consultancy Diebold
Germany
, has led to further problems for industry - 'technology has changed
the man
ufacturing process forever, but manufacturers have failed to change
with it,
' comments the managing director of Diebold Germany, Mr Wolfgang
Dernbach.
M
anagement has insisted on 'putting the spotlight on automation,' he adds,
'b
ut has often forgotten where human resources can and must fit in.'
Computeri
sed information offers tantalising benefits in the automated
processes used 
in manufacturing. Plant managers have been increasingly
excited by innovatio
ns such as MRP (materials resource planning); JIT
('just-in-time' updating o
f stock levels); OPT (optimised production
technology); EDI (electronic data
 interchange - the exchange of data between
manufacturers, suppliers and cus
tomers); CAD, CAM and CAE (computer-aided
design, manufacturing and engineer
ing); and PIM (product information
management), plus other buzzwords describ
ed below.
Wolfgang Dernbach argues that if manufacturing technology is to pr
ovide a
company with really productive solutions, 'then it had better be ins
talled
in such a way as to actively include - and not exclude - the workforc
e.'
In short, man and not the machine must be at the centre.
At the Regensbu
rg plant of BMW, Germany's leading motor manufacturer, Johann
Schrafl, the h
ead of product engineering, has a policy of 'targeted
automation' which make
s good business sense. In the late 1980s, Schrafl and
his colleagues began t
o look for ways to make the assembly line more
'intelligent' and, at the sam
e time, relieve workers of tedious tasks.
Rather than automate the entire pr
oduction process, Schrafl chose to
'selectively' install manufacturing techn
ologies without bypassing the
individual.
'Machines will always make mistake
s,' he stresses. 'And people will always
be necessary to correct them.
To he
lp accomplish the company goal, BMW purchased a system from Robert
Bosch, on
e of Germany's leading electronics companies. The system relies on
an electr
onic spindle mechanism to attach and tighten all five screws on
each vehicle
 wheel at one time - and 'feel' if the screws are tight enough.
This improve
ment cuts production time per vehicle by 1.4 minutes which
translates into c
ash-savings for the factory of DM200,000 a year.
In addition, workers are sp
ared having to lift a machine weighing 50lbs to
tighten screws. And the Bosc
h system has built-in quality controls. Whereas
an earlier system at Regensb
urg only indicated problems with warning lights,
leaving the worker to figur
e out which wheels had to be corrected, the Bosch
system records mistakes in
 a production protocol and prints a sticker which
is attached to a quality-c
ontrol folder that accompanies each car start to
finish on the assembly line
.
However, Schrafl sees little reason to be 'euphoric' about the advantages 
of
automation. New manufacturing technologies, he emphasises, also have thei
r
'drawbacks.' In short, they break down and make mistakes - 'but improvemen
ts
in the interface are serving to make intelligent solutions more attractiv
e
to implement.'
For complex industrial projects, analysts argue that the em
phasis should be
more product information management (PIM) than just aspects
 of factory
automation.
Especially in the area of electronics and telecoms, 
the final version of a
product depends on the priorities of managers, purcha
sing departments,
logistics supervisors, quality-control groups and inventor
y directors, as
well as designers and engineers. Because of the spread of PC
s and
workstations, more than 50 per cent of product information is in elect
ronic
form - data which can be easily accessed and amended via data transfer

networks.
But the more accessible the data, the greater the risk that the w
rong data
can find its way into the product development and manufacturing pr
ocesses,
bypassing formal release procedures. When this happens, engineering
 changes
and re-working is then needed, research budgets over-run and qualit
y
declines. In the end, the product fails to reach its market on time - and

the manufacturer pays the price.
Rather than merely introduce more automatio
n into its production processes,
GPT, a leading maker of telecom equipment i
n the UK, decided to rethink its
entire design and manufacturing routine. As
 a result, the company in 1990
developed its own engineering manufacturing d
ata system, (EMDS).
This set of computer-integrated applications was designe
d to provide the
company with a common framework and a single access to all 
kinds of
information, regardless of platform. In short, EMDS manages all des
ign
files, product configurations, engineering changes and component databas
es
throughout the product life-cycle.
For GPT, engineering efficiency execut
ive Mr Les Brooks, the EMDS allows the
company to 'successfully manage chang
e.'
Indeed, he adds, 'we are able to make sure we design and build products

right the first time and can properly manage the data generated by both
proc
esses.' Moreover, EMDS plays a significant role in company strategy, he
says
. The pay-off for GPT so far is a 'marked improvement' in the
time-to-market
 and increased capacity to realise concurrent engineering - a
practice where
 all functions involved in delivering a product to the
customer (from R&D to
 field service) participate in the development process.
Indeed, analysts agr
ee, GPT is a market leader and well advanced in a
ten-year development proje
ct, in collaboration with Siemens, to produce the
next generation of telecom
 switching systems.
Sherpa, a leading software and services supplier, based 
in San Jose,
California, is also the world's leading PIM supplier and the co
mpany which
provided GPT with the software for its EMDS. Sherpa believes tha
t PIM is the
'next logical step' to CAD, CAM and CAE. According to Sherpa's 
European
marketing manager, Doug Macdonald, PIM underlines the concept of 'a
gile
manufacturing' - the flexibility which companies seek.
'Many large comp
anies have invested 'up to the hilt' in computer-aided
design and similar to
ols, but are stuck struggling to manage this
information manually,' he says.

Not all manufacturers can manage their information electronically, therefor
e
'a lot of serious, costly mistakes are developing,' he adds. For example, 
a
large electronics company lost much time and money after engineers sent
ou
tdated product information to the factory floor, resulting in the
manufactur
e of several hundred useless printed circuit boards - 'problems
like this ca
n happen in even the best-managed companies,' he notes.
For this reason, Mac
donald stresses, Sherpa concentrates only on supplying
systems which integra
te fully with a company's design and manufacturing
systems.
ACCORDING to the
 US-based consultancy CIMdata, a company specialising in
product data manage
ment (PDM), which is similar to PIN, and CAD/CAM
technology and market issue
s, Europe has the world's highest growth
potential for PDM systems and servi
ces. By 1995, European PDM revenues could
exceed Dollars 250m, similar to th
e figure for suppliers in North America.
Sherpa will benefit considerably fr
om the trend to more 'intelligent' data
management, says the consultancy.
Lo
oking ahead, business process re-engineering, with the help of new,
integrat
ed production technologies, plus improved information systems, is a
trend th
at will spread rapidly to manufacturing processes, suggests Michael
Bruce, a
 director of the London-based Moore Stephens Business Technology
Group.
Mean
while, Japan's approach to automation generally seeks to avoid
imbalances be
tween new production technologies and manufacturing processes.
Fanuc of Japa
n, a leader in the automation of machine tools, supports its
internal produc
tion process with highly efficient management. Company
engineers, clad in br
ight yellow uniforms, carry out research in highly
automated laboratories wh
ile product managers oversee operations in high
tech factories.
In the elect
ronics plant, for example, robots and computers are assigned
tasks such as p
arts' inspection, plus assembly and testing of printed
circuit boards. In ot
her futuristic plants, unmanned vehicles and robots
assist each other in the
 production of machinery. Indeed, robots are at work
 -making robots.
The co
mpany, according to one analyst, offers a glimpse 'of where technology
is ta
king us in the years to come . . . the prime example of the truly
automated 
factory and the outcome of a fully rational manufacturing
process.'
For Bruc
e Potts, Fanuc's robotics Europe executive vice-president, based in
Dusseldo
rf, the 'revolution' in factory automation is in full swing because
the robo
t control system is becoming more user-friendly.
According to the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics, the world industrial
robot population in 1991 st
ood at around 530,000 units.
To date, Fanuc Robotics serve more than 2,000 c
ustomers, including leading
players in the automobile, machinery, food and p
harmaceutical industries.
But, says Mr Potts, computer-controlled robots and
 factory automation alone
are not the answer if a manufacturer's problems if
 the basic production
process is inefficient.
'We have to look at the entire
 process,' he adds. 'Then we can look for a
solution.'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countrie
s:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassif
iable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Processes.
    CMMT
  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge XI </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 71 ==============================================
Transaction #:     71       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:34
Selec. Rec. #:      7

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-2017</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXAWABGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Survey of Information and Communicatio
ns Technology (23): Boost for productivity - Manufacturing industry </HEADLI
NE>
<BYLINE>    By PEGGY SALZ-TRAUTMAN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
AS manufacturing ind
ustry has sought in recent years to boost production and
cut costs, it has o
ften turned to the technocrats for solutions. Managers
have believed that in
vestment in information systems (IS) and manufacturing
technologies alone wo
uld improve the production process - the rest would
take care of itself.
Thi
s limited view, according to the Frankfurt-based consultancy Diebold
Germany
, has led to further problems for industry - 'technology has changed
the man
ufacturing process forever, but manufacturers have failed to change
with it,
' comments the managing director of Diebold Germany, Mr Wolfgang
Dernbach.
M
anagement has insisted on 'putting the spotlight on automation,' he adds,
'b
ut has often forgotten where human resources can and must fit in.'
Computeri
sed information offers tantalising benefits in the automated
processes used 
in manufacturing. Plant managers have been increasingly
excited by innovatio
ns such as MRP (materials resource planning); JIT
('just-in-time' updating o
f stock levels); OPT (optimised production
technology); EDI (electronic data
 interchange - the exchange of data between
manufacturers, suppliers and cus
tomers); CAD, CAM and CAE (computer-aided
design, manufacturing and engineer
ing); and PIM (product information
management), plus other buzzwords describ
ed below.
Wolfgang Dernbach argues that if manufacturing technology is to pr
ovide a
company with really productive solutions, 'then it had better be ins
talled
in such a way as to actively include - and not exclude - the workforc
e.'
In short, man and not the machine must be at the centre.
At the Regensbu
rg plant of BMW, Germany's leading motor manufacturer, Johann
Schrafl, the h
ead of product engineering, has a policy of 'targeted
automation' which make
s good business sense. In the late 1980s, Schrafl and
his colleagues began t
o look for ways to make the assembly line more
'intelligent' and, at the sam
e time, relieve workers of tedious tasks.
Rather than automate the entire pr
oduction process, Schrafl chose to
'selectively' install manufacturing techn
ologies without bypassing the
individual.
'Machines will always make mistake
s,' he stresses. 'And people will always
be necessary to correct them.
To he
lp accomplish the company goal, BMW purchased a system from Robert
Bosch, on
e of Germany's leading electronics companies. The system relies on
an electr
onic spindle mechanism to attach and tighten all five screws on
each vehicle
 wheel at one time - and 'feel' if the screws are tight enough.
This improve
ment cuts production time per vehicle by 1.4 minutes which
translates into c
ash-savings for the factory of DM200,000 a year.
In addition, workers are sp
ared having to lift a machine weighing 50lbs to
tighten screws. And the Bosc
h system has built-in quality controls. Whereas
an earlier system at Regensb
urg only indicated problems with warning lights,
leaving the worker to figur
e out which wheels had to be corrected, the Bosch
system records mistakes in
 a production protocol and prints a sticker which
is attached to a quality-c
ontrol folder that accompanies each car start to
finish on the assembly line
.
However, Schrafl sees little reason to be 'euphoric' about the advantages 
of
automation. New manufacturing technologies, he emphasises, also have thei
r
'drawbacks.' In short, they break down and make mistakes - 'but improvemen
ts
in the interface are serving to make intelligent solutions more attractiv
e
to implement.'
For complex industrial projects, analysts argue that the em
phasis should be
more product information management (PIM) than just aspects
 of factory
automation.
Especially in the area of electronics and telecoms, 
the final version of a
product depends on the priorities of managers, purcha
sing departments,
logistics supervisors, quality-control groups and inventor
y directors, as
well as designers and engineers. Because of the spread of PC
s and
workstations, more than 50 per cent of product information is in elect
ronic
form - data which can be easily accessed and amended via data transfer

networks.
But the more accessible the data, the greater the risk that the w
rong data
can find its way into the product development and manufacturing pr
ocesses,
bypassing formal release procedures. When this happens, engineering
 changes
and re-working is then needed, research budgets over-run and qualit
y
declines. In the end, the product fails to reach its market on time - and

the manufacturer pays the price.
Rather than merely introduce more automatio
n into its production processes,
GPT, a leading maker of telecom equipment i
n the UK, decided to rethink its
entire design and manufacturing routine. As
 a result, the company in 1990
developed its own engineering manufacturing d
ata system, (EMDS).
This set of computer-integrated applications was designe
d to provide the
company with a common framework and a single access to all 
kinds of
information, regardless of platform. In short, EMDS manages all des
ign
files, product configurations, engineering changes and component databas
es
throughout the product life-cycle.
For GPT, engineering efficiency execut
ive Mr Les Brooks, the EMDS allows the
company to 'successfully manage chang
e.'
Indeed, he adds, 'we are able to make sure we design and build products

right the first time and can properly manage the data generated by both
proc
esses.' Moreover, EMDS plays a significant role in company strategy, he
says
. The pay-off for GPT so far is a 'marked improvement' in the
time-to-market
 and increased capacity to realise concurrent engineering - a
practice where
 all functions involved in delivering a product to the
customer (from R&D to
 field service) participate in the development process.
Indeed, analysts agr
ee, GPT is a market leader and well advanced in a
ten-year development proje
ct, in collaboration with Siemens, to produce the
next generation of telecom
 switching systems.
Sherpa, a leading software and services supplier, based 
in San Jose,
California, is also the world's leading PIM supplier and the co
mpany which
provided GPT with the software for its EMDS. Sherpa believes tha
t PIM is the
'next logical step' to CAD, CAM and CAE. According to Sherpa's 
European
marketing manager, Doug Macdonald, PIM underlines the concept of 'a
gile
manufacturing' - the flexibility which companies seek.
'Many large comp
anies have invested 'up to the hilt' in computer-aided
design and similar to
ols, but are stuck struggling to manage this
information manually,' he says.

Not all manufacturers can manage their information electronically, therefor
e
'a lot of serious, costly mistakes are developing,' he adds. For example, 
a
large electronics company lost much time and money after engineers sent
ou
tdated product information to the factory floor, resulting in the
manufactur
e of several hundred useless printed circuit boards - 'problems
like this ca
n happen in even the best-managed companies,' he notes.
For this reason, Mac
donald stresses, Sherpa concentrates only on supplying
systems which integra
te fully with a company's design and manufacturing
systems.
ACCORDING to the
 US-based consultancy CIMdata, a company specialising in
product data manage
ment (PDM), which is similar to PIN, and CAD/CAM
technology and market issue
s, Europe has the world's highest growth
potential for PDM systems and servi
ces. By 1995, European PDM revenues could
exceed Dollars 250m, similar to th
e figure for suppliers in North America.
Sherpa will benefit considerably fr
om the trend to more 'intelligent' data
management, says the consultancy.
Lo
oking ahead, business process re-engineering, with the help of new,
integrat
ed production technologies, plus improved information systems, is a
trend th
at will spread rapidly to manufacturing processes, suggests Michael
Bruce, a
 director of the London-based Moore Stephens Business Technology
Group.
Mean
while, Japan's approach to automation generally seeks to avoid
imbalances be
tween new production technologies and manufacturing processes.
Fanuc of Japa
n, a leader in the automation of machine tools, supports its
internal produc
tion process with highly efficient management. Company
engineers, clad in br
ight yellow uniforms, carry out research in highly
automated laboratories wh
ile product managers oversee operations in high
tech factories.
In the elect
ronics plant, for example, robots and computers are assigned
tasks such as p
arts' inspection, plus assembly and testing of printed
circuit boards. In ot
her futuristic plants, unmanned vehicles and robots
assist each other in the
 production of machinery. Indeed, robots are at work
 -making robots.
The co
mpany, according to one analyst, offers a glimpse 'of where technology
is ta
king us in the years to come . . . the prime example of the truly
automated 
factory and the outcome of a fully rational manufacturing
process.'
For Bruc
e Potts, Fanuc's robotics Europe executive vice-president, based in
Dusseldo
rf, the 'revolution' in factory automation is in full swing because
the robo
t control system is becoming more user-friendly.
According to the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics, the world industrial
robot population in 1991 st
ood at around 530,000 units.
To date, Fanuc Robotics serve more than 2,000 c
ustomers, including leading
players in the automobile, machinery, food and p
harmaceutical industries.
But, says Mr Potts, computer-controlled robots and
 factory automation alone
are not the answer if a manufacturer's problems if
 the basic production
process is inefficient.
'We have to look at the entire
 process,' he adds. 'Then we can look for a
solution.'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countrie
s:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassif
iable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Processes.
    CMMT
  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge XI </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 72 ==============================================
Transaction #:     72       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:42
Selec. Rec. #:      8

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-135</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6
): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p
roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By LORI VALIGRA </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    TOKYO </DATELINE>

<TEXT>
IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa
cturer
replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se
t up
full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from
g
etting lonely.
The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there
 are a few
showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer'
s factory
near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact
ories are
realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f
ocus their
research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t
he ever
increasing number of machines working by their side.
In past years m
anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving
machines to raise 
production. They focused on maximising the use of people,
money, time and ma
terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the
complex machinery b
eginning to surround them.
'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin
es, so the man-machine
interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats
uyama, a manager at
Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo.
'Japan
ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production
has s
hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,'
he sa
ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery
to be
 more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example,
weldi
ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as
fuzzy l
ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as
finding an 
operational failure, through inferences, as humans do.
The escalating skille
d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth
rate and a more afflue
nt and highly educated society, makes robots an
important component of facto
ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some
companies.
Strong competition i
n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of
investment in labour-
saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting
tools, processing mach
ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force
is expected to be 0.8 
per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall
off by half to 0.4 per
 cent until 2000, according to Japanese government
statistics. During that t
ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual
economic growth rate.
'T
o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says
Mr 
Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association
(Jir
a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the
switch 
from a manufacturing to a service economy.
Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y
onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer
blue-collar workers in manufacturing b
y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a
shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo
ung people are a different breed of
worker from those who laboured long hour
s for little pay to build Japan's
industrial miracle.
They want to avoid so-
called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai'
(dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard)
. 'Older men were very patient and had the
Bushido (warrior) morale, but it 
is hard to find these people today,' says
Mr Matsuyama.
Replacing them with 
machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces
programmable controlle
rs and other electronics products, sees the
improvements that can be made in
 factory automation as almost limitless and
including diagnosing system fail
ures and other management tasks.
The improvements span a broad factory autom
ation market valued at almost
Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a
 product from design through
production and inspection. The important compon
ents of automating a factory
are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of
 the market, as well as
computer-aided design and manufacturing software and
 equipment, industrial
robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse
s, computers and
automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou
t a plant site.
Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod
uction
components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin
e
tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power
.
Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16

per cent held by Germany.
Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i
n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki,
for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste
r, in the UK which
produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a
ccording to
industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing 
robot market
is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst
allations
worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5
 per cent.
Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni
cs and
other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn
ology,
product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese
manuf
acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is
litt
le competition from imports.
The electronics industry is the biggest user of
 automation technology. At
its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To
kyo, Toshiba uses its own
laptop computers for design, development and assem
bly of new Toshiba
laptops.
The laptops are used to compute how easily a new
 computer model can be
assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget
her one notebook-size
Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important, 
because the company is
making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s
pan of each new product
is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition
.
'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is
al
ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga,
who
 heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome.
How
ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a
Jap
anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it
increasingly 
difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba
replicates about 70 
per cent of design work from current models in new ones.
While it took Toshi
ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops
from scratch, it took 
only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook.
Though its factory is 
about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the
company often comment about 
the number of people still present on the
manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s
ays that with the fast-paced product life
cycles, humans are needed. 'There 
are problems with automated systems. They
can't catch up with new technology
, so humans are acting as universal super
robots,' he adds.
Fuzzy logic may 
help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic,
software that can 
help make a decision from unclear information, will help
increase the versat
ility of robots in the future by affording better control
of their movements
. Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed
a test robot that
 can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd).
In a New Year's 
address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president,
identified fuzzy
 logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994,
more than 20 pe
r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of
fuzzy logic. Accord
ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As
part of a computer-in
tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in
production and in mana
ging the company.
'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person 
where computers
are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge
neration plant's
circulation control system to clean water and to make decis
ions. Perhaps the
Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide
d with these
systems,' he says.
Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots
 and other components, spell
another technological advantage for Japan in th
e future: being able to
change small-scale production quickly, so that multi
ple products can be
produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya
ma predicts Japanese
manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale
 production, which is
a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility.

Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense

that market information should be more effectively connected with the
produc
tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible
production
 without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in
Osaka.
The com
pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which
more c
losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they
are r
efined.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE
>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 73 ==============================================
Transaction #:     73       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-135</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6
): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p
roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By LORI VALIGRA </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    TOKYO </DATELINE>

<TEXT>
IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa
cturer
replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se
t up
full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from
g
etting lonely.
The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there
 are a few
showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer'
s factory
near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact
ories are
realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f
ocus their
research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t
he ever
increasing number of machines working by their side.
In past years m
anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving
machines to raise 
production. They focused on maximising the use of people,
money, time and ma
terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the
complex machinery b
eginning to surround them.
'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin
es, so the man-machine
interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats
uyama, a manager at
Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo.
'Japan
ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production
has s
hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,'
he sa
ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery
to be
 more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example,
weldi
ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as
fuzzy l
ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as
finding an 
operational failure, through inferences, as humans do.
The escalating skille
d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth
rate and a more afflue
nt and highly educated society, makes robots an
important component of facto
ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some
companies.
Strong competition i
n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of
investment in labour-
saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting
tools, processing mach
ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force
is expected to be 0.8 
per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall
off by half to 0.4 per
 cent until 2000, according to Japanese government
statistics. During that t
ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual
economic growth rate.
'T
o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says
Mr 
Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association
(Jir
a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the
switch 
from a manufacturing to a service economy.
Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y
onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer
blue-collar workers in manufacturing b
y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a
shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo
ung people are a different breed of
worker from those who laboured long hour
s for little pay to build Japan's
industrial miracle.
They want to avoid so-
called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai'
(dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard)
. 'Older men were very patient and had the
Bushido (warrior) morale, but it 
is hard to find these people today,' says
Mr Matsuyama.
Replacing them with 
machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces
programmable controlle
rs and other electronics products, sees the
improvements that can be made in
 factory automation as almost limitless and
including diagnosing system fail
ures and other management tasks.
The improvements span a broad factory autom
ation market valued at almost
Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a
 product from design through
production and inspection. The important compon
ents of automating a factory
are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of
 the market, as well as
computer-aided design and manufacturing software and
 equipment, industrial
robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse
s, computers and
automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou
t a plant site.
Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod
uction
components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin
e
tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power
.
Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16

per cent held by Germany.
Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i
n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki,
for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste
r, in the UK which
produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a
ccording to
industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing 
robot market
is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst
allations
worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5
 per cent.
Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni
cs and
other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn
ology,
product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese
manuf
acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is
litt
le competition from imports.
The electronics industry is the biggest user of
 automation technology. At
its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To
kyo, Toshiba uses its own
laptop computers for design, development and assem
bly of new Toshiba
laptops.
The laptops are used to compute how easily a new
 computer model can be
assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget
her one notebook-size
Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important, 
because the company is
making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s
pan of each new product
is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition
.
'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is
al
ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga,
who
 heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome.
How
ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a
Jap
anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it
increasingly 
difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba
replicates about 70 
per cent of design work from current models in new ones.
While it took Toshi
ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops
from scratch, it took 
only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook.
Though its factory is 
about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the
company often comment about 
the number of people still present on the
manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s
ays that with the fast-paced product life
cycles, humans are needed. 'There 
are problems with automated systems. They
can't catch up with new technology
, so humans are acting as universal super
robots,' he adds.
Fuzzy logic may 
help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic,
software that can 
help make a decision from unclear information, will help
increase the versat
ility of robots in the future by affording better control
of their movements
. Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed
a test robot that
 can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd).
In a New Year's 
address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president,
identified fuzzy
 logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994,
more than 20 pe
r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of
fuzzy logic. Accord
ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As
part of a computer-in
tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in
production and in mana
ging the company.
'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person 
where computers
are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge
neration plant's
circulation control system to clean water and to make decis
ions. Perhaps the
Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide
d with these
systems,' he says.
Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots
 and other components, spell
another technological advantage for Japan in th
e future: being able to
change small-scale production quickly, so that multi
ple products can be
produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya
ma predicts Japanese
manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale
 production, which is
a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility.

Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense

that market information should be more effectively connected with the
produc
tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible
production
 without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in
Osaka.
The com
pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which
more c
losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they
are r
efined.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE
>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 74 ==============================================
Transaction #:     74       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8066</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHSD0AB7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
19
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
 science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the 
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
 computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
 recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the 
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that 
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
 from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity 
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
 mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if 
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
 at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black 
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations 
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
 brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
 a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
 images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
 networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).

These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used

in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with

examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers

to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain 
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps

everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in 
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & 
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the 
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
 smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for 
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy 
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it 
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market. 
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share 
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft 
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
 Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be

very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a 
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater 
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
 records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
 on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see 
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's

earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks

will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says 
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
 still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
  1988    89   
 90    91    92    93    94    95    96    97    98
   na    22.7  31.7  41.
4  52.6  58.8  53.7  47.0  40.0  36.3  37.7
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Co
untries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
    P7372 Prepackaged Software.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<
TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Mar
ket shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 75 ==============================================
Transaction #:     75       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    
By CHRIS BARRIE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo
st difficult to build and the
chances are that he or she will name the engin
e or the car body.
In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive
, task is when
engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and 
fixed in the
painted car body - a process known as final assembly.
To please
 the customer the car company must offer many different options on
each basi
c car.
Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line 
has to
cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics,

equipment, and tinted glass.
Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo
od plant on Merseyside. There
are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit
ted to this car depending on
colour and specification.
Similarly there are u
p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60
variations in the door mirr
ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the
door trim panels according to
 the model mix being built at the plant.
The complexity of choosing the righ
t component and fitting it into the right
model has left these areas of the 
factory dominated by men and women, not
machines. It has also made this part
 of car construction the area where, on
the surface, greatest efficiency gai
ns should be possible.
The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an
 international study
carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
y - found that final
assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va
lue of the car, a
significant proportion.
Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho
urs of assembly time per car to carry out
final assembly, compared with four
 hours to paint the car and five to weld
it together (direct labour only).
B
y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours

of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body
cons
truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese.
There is no escape
 from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on
final assembly. Custo
mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options.
And in any case it is n
ot the complexity itself which makes a factory
efficient. The IMVP study sug
gested that the factories coping with the most
complex cars were also the mo
st productive, and they were Japanese.
So what are the solutions to making f
inal assembly more efficient? Needless
to say, companies are choosing differ
ent ways ahead.
The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has 
already been
done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men.
 Machines
will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta
ndards.
The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f
ewer
people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan,
m
achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not.
There is certa
inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps
carried out by
 automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In
Japan the equivale
nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per
cent of its actio
n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan.
Automation suppliers are co
nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai
Warn, Brussels-based manag
er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics,
says automation is just bec
oming cost-effective in final assembly.
He estimates that the cost of robots
 has fallen by 30 per cent in the past
five years while their performance ha
s risen by the same amount over the
same period.
Mr Warn estimates that the 
real advance in automation will come in the next
two to three years as new c
ars come on stream having been designed with
automation in mind.
But it is w
orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you
make it ea
sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at
automating fin
al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears
to have ruled 
it out as still not cost effective.
But there are companies that have automa
ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo
car on highly automated lines at Cassino i
n Italy. The factory has more than
100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor
e than 1200 wire guided trollies
and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th
e most highly automated factory
in the world.
Similarly, Volkswagen builds t
he Golf on highly-automated lines, while
Citroen uses automation to carry ou
t large numbers of final assembly tasks
on the XM executive car at Rennes in
 France.
But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of
sop
histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet
the c
omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to
indirect c
osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems.
Professor Dan Jones of
 Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will
only be cost-effective 
if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means
Fiat will need another l
ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning
Tipo production on and 
off according to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, automation can inhibit new m
odel design by forcing engineers to
cut costs by using tooling installed for
 the old model. The Volkswagen Golf
is often cited as a case in point.
Inste
ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to
automat
ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates
tasks tha
t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation
should be us
ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the
labour-intensive pinchpoin
ts on a production line where workforce numbers
may be reduced but the autom
ation left with an impossibly complicated job -
and the people with an impos
sibly boring set of simple jobs.
Instead of being concerned with machines, s
ome managers are turning to two
sets of people for help: the workforce and t
he supplier.
Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective
. Rover
achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its

workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i
t
went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one

of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the
manageme
nt skill in running the factory efficiently.
All car companies will simplify
 their own tasks by asking suppliers to do
more. Instead of assembling cars 
under one roof, car companies will receive
built-up modules such as dashboar
ds, seats or mouldings ready for
installation into the car.
But whichever ro
ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right.
Automation can be
 hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 76 ==============================================
Transaction #:     76       Transaction Code:  38 (Record Deselected)      

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:39
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    
By CHRIS BARRIE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo
st difficult to build and the
chances are that he or she will name the engin
e or the car body.
In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive
, task is when
engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and 
fixed in the
painted car body - a process known as final assembly.
To please
 the customer the car company must offer many different options on
each basi
c car.
Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line 
has to
cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics,

equipment, and tinted glass.
Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo
od plant on Merseyside. There
are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit
ted to this car depending on
colour and specification.
Similarly there are u
p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60
variations in the door mirr
ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the
door trim panels according to
 the model mix being built at the plant.
The complexity of choosing the righ
t component and fitting it into the right
model has left these areas of the 
factory dominated by men and women, not
machines. It has also made this part
 of car construction the area where, on
the surface, greatest efficiency gai
ns should be possible.
The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an
 international study
carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
y - found that final
assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va
lue of the car, a
significant proportion.
Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho
urs of assembly time per car to carry out
final assembly, compared with four
 hours to paint the car and five to weld
it together (direct labour only).
B
y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours

of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body
cons
truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese.
There is no escape
 from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on
final assembly. Custo
mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options.
And in any case it is n
ot the complexity itself which makes a factory
efficient. The IMVP study sug
gested that the factories coping with the most
complex cars were also the mo
st productive, and they were Japanese.
So what are the solutions to making f
inal assembly more efficient? Needless
to say, companies are choosing differ
ent ways ahead.
The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has 
already been
done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men.
 Machines
will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta
ndards.
The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f
ewer
people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan,
m
achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not.
There is certa
inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps
carried out by
 automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In
Japan the equivale
nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per
cent of its actio
n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan.
Automation suppliers are co
nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai
Warn, Brussels-based manag
er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics,
says automation is just bec
oming cost-effective in final assembly.
He estimates that the cost of robots
 has fallen by 30 per cent in the past
five years while their performance ha
s risen by the same amount over the
same period.
Mr Warn estimates that the 
real advance in automation will come in the next
two to three years as new c
ars come on stream having been designed with
automation in mind.
But it is w
orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you
make it ea
sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at
automating fin
al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears
to have ruled 
it out as still not cost effective.
But there are companies that have automa
ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo
car on highly automated lines at Cassino i
n Italy. The factory has more than
100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor
e than 1200 wire guided trollies
and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th
e most highly automated factory
in the world.
Similarly, Volkswagen builds t
he Golf on highly-automated lines, while
Citroen uses automation to carry ou
t large numbers of final assembly tasks
on the XM executive car at Rennes in
 France.
But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of
sop
histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet
the c
omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to
indirect c
osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems.
Professor Dan Jones of
 Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will
only be cost-effective 
if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means
Fiat will need another l
ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning
Tipo production on and 
off according to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, automation can inhibit new m
odel design by forcing engineers to
cut costs by using tooling installed for
 the old model. The Volkswagen Golf
is often cited as a case in point.
Inste
ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to
automat
ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates
tasks tha
t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation
should be us
ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the
labour-intensive pinchpoin
ts on a production line where workforce numbers
may be reduced but the autom
ation left with an impossibly complicated job -
and the people with an impos
sibly boring set of simple jobs.
Instead of being concerned with machines, s
ome managers are turning to two
sets of people for help: the workforce and t
he supplier.
Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective
. Rover
achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its

workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i
t
went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one

of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the
manageme
nt skill in running the factory efficiently.
All car companies will simplify
 their own tasks by asking suppliers to do
more. Instead of assembling cars 
under one roof, car companies will receive
built-up modules such as dashboar
ds, seats or mouldings ready for
installation into the car.
But whichever ro
ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right.
Automation can be
 hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 77 ==============================================
Transaction #:     77       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:42
Selec. Rec. #:     10

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
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Boolean Conjunctions:

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEHFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    
By CHRIS BARRIE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo
st difficult to build and the
chances are that he or she will name the engin
e or the car body.
In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive
, task is when
engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and 
fixed in the
painted car body - a process known as final assembly.
To please
 the customer the car company must offer many different options on
each basi
c car.
Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line 
has to
cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics,

equipment, and tinted glass.
Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo
od plant on Merseyside. There
are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit
ted to this car depending on
colour and specification.
Similarly there are u
p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60
variations in the door mirr
ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the
door trim panels according to
 the model mix being built at the plant.
The complexity of choosing the righ
t component and fitting it into the right
model has left these areas of the 
factory dominated by men and women, not
machines. It has also made this part
 of car construction the area where, on
the surface, greatest efficiency gai
ns should be possible.
The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an
 international study
carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
y - found that final
assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va
lue of the car, a
significant proportion.
Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho
urs of assembly time per car to carry out
final assembly, compared with four
 hours to paint the car and five to weld
it together (direct labour only).
B
y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours

of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body
cons
truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese.
There is no escape
 from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on
final assembly. Custo
mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options.
And in any case it is n
ot the complexity itself which makes a factory
efficient. The IMVP study sug
gested that the factories coping with the most
complex cars were also the mo
st productive, and they were Japanese.
So what are the solutions to making f
inal assembly more efficient? Needless
to say, companies are choosing differ
ent ways ahead.
The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has 
already been
done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men.
 Machines
will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta
ndards.
The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f
ewer
people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan,
m
achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not.
There is certa
inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps
carried out by
 automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In
Japan the equivale
nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per
cent of its actio
n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan.
Automation suppliers are co
nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai
Warn, Brussels-based manag
er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics,
says automation is just bec
oming cost-effective in final assembly.
He estimates that the cost of robots
 has fallen by 30 per cent in the past
five years while their performance ha
s risen by the same amount over the
same period.
Mr Warn estimates that the 
real advance in automation will come in the next
two to three years as new c
ars come on stream having been designed with
automation in mind.
But it is w
orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you
make it ea
sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at
automating fin
al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears
to have ruled 
it out as still not cost effective.
But there are companies that have automa
ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo
car on highly automated lines at Cassino i
n Italy. The factory has more than
100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor
e than 1200 wire guided trollies
and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th
e most highly automated factory
in the world.
Similarly, Volkswagen builds t
he Golf on highly-automated lines, while
Citroen uses automation to carry ou
t large numbers of final assembly tasks
on the XM executive car at Rennes in
 France.
But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of
sop
histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet
the c
omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to
indirect c
osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems.
Professor Dan Jones of
 Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will
only be cost-effective 
if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means
Fiat will need another l
ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning
Tipo production on and 
off according to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, automation can inhibit new m
odel design by forcing engineers to
cut costs by using tooling installed for
 the old model. The Volkswagen Golf
is often cited as a case in point.
Inste
ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to
automat
ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates
tasks tha
t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation
should be us
ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the
labour-intensive pinchpoin
ts on a production line where workforce numbers
may be reduced but the autom
ation left with an impossibly complicated job -
and the people with an impos
sibly boring set of simple jobs.
Instead of being concerned with machines, s
ome managers are turning to two
sets of people for help: the workforce and t
he supplier.
Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective
. Rover
achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its

workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i
t
went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one

of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the
manageme
nt skill in running the factory efficiently.
All car companies will simplify
 their own tasks by asking suppliers to do
more. Instead of assembling cars 
under one roof, car companies will receive
built-up modules such as dashboar
ds, seats or mouldings ready for
installation into the car.
But whichever ro
ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right.
Automation can be
 hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 78 ==============================================
Transaction #:     78       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:57
Selec. Rec. #:      9

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   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8066</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHSD0AB7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
19
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
 science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the 
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
 computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
 recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the 
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that 
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
 from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity 
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
 mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if 
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
 at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black 
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations 
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
 brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
 a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
 images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
 networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).

These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used

in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with

examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers

to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain 
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps

everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in 
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & 
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the 
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
 smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for 
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy 
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it 
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market. 
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share 
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft 
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
 Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be

very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a 
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater 
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
 records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
 on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see 
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's

earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks

will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says 
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
 still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
  1988    89   
 90    91    92    93    94    95    96    97    98
   na    22.7  31.7  41.
4  52.6  58.8  53.7  47.0  40.0  36.3  37.7
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Co
untries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
    P7372 Prepackaged Software.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<
TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Mar
ket shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 79 ==============================================
Transaction #:     79       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
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Selec. Rec. #:      9

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8066</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHSD0AB7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
19
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
 science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the 
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
 computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
 recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the 
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that 
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
 from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity 
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
 mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if 
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
 at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black 
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations 
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
 brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
 a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
 images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
 networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).

These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used

in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with

examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers

to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain 
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps

everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in 
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & 
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the 
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
 smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for 
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy 
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it 
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market. 
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share 
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft 
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
 Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be

very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a 
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater 
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
 records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
 on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see 
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's

earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks

will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says 
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
 still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
  1988    89   
 90    91    92    93    94    95    96    97    98
   na    22.7  31.7  41.
4  52.6  58.8  53.7  47.0  40.0  36.3  37.7
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Co
untries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
    P7372 Prepackaged Software.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<
TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Mar
ket shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 80 ==============================================
Transaction #:     80       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:06
Selec. Rec. #:     11

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-11658</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGWASAEJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
723
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 JUL 92 / Technology: More oil on the wheels - 
Financial pressures have forced Japan's auto makers to build in flexibility 
</HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEVEN BUTLER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Nissan Motor's kit
chen-clean car assembly plant on Japan's southern Kyushu
Island could easily
 pass for an exhibition of state-of-the-art robotics and
computer-controlled
 manufacturing.
Giant mechanical arms hoist seven stamped, steel panels into
 position and,
amid a shower of sparks caused by 64 simultaneous welds, the 
main body of a
car is created. Sixteen robots then go to work on the body, p
erforming 600
spot welds in rapid succession in two stages.
Today, productio
n on the line is just getting going, but eventually the
robots will handle u
p to four different model styles, in eight different
variations, all of it c
ontrolled by computer.
Production at the body assembly stage is 100 per cent
 automated. But more
important than the automation itself is that Nissan has
 managed to build in
flexibility, albeit at considerable cost.
As Japanese c
ar makers face a labour shortage that is forcing them to
replace human versa
tility with far less adaptable machines, flexibility in
manufacturing - or r
ather lack of it - has become a critical issue. Machines
are not easily prog
rammed to install different components for different cars
coming down the li
ne, and they still lack the dexterity of men.
Market trends have also height
ened this need. While the Japanese
manufacturers increased sales sharply in 
the late 1980s, all but Toyota did
this by selling more models in smaller pr
oduction runs. Being able to
assemble multiple models on a single line incre
ases the utilisation rate of
expensive equipment. Today, with consumer taste
s shifting rapidly, some
production lines are running flat out, unable to me
et demand, while others
making less popular models go underutilised.
'Our fo
cus in production engineering is to enhance flexibility,' says
Ryuichi Tsuka
moto, executive vice president at Honda Engineering, a
subsidiary of Honda M
otor. 'Enhancing flexibility is the best way to get
efficient production.'
T
sukamoto's strategy involves two broad approaches: one stresses the
localisa
tion of parts supply for an industry that has in a decade become
global, and
 a second involves increasing the use of standardised parts and
rethinking t
he design process for cars to allow standardised robots to
install functiona
lly different components.
Tsukamoto describes the idealised 'lean' Japanese 
manufacturing process as
direct production, which is essentially similar to 
the production system
pioneered by Toyota Motor in the 1950s. Tsukamoto trie
s to match production
capacity for parts and components suppliers precisely 
with the needs of the
assembly line, with suppliers located near the assembl
y factory and thus
able to respond quickly to demands from the factory floor
.
Honda more or less achieved this in the 1970s at its two main assembly
pla
nts in Japan, in Sayama and Suzuka. However, the start of production in
the 
US in the early 1980s, followed by a period of hectic growth, led Honda
far 
from the ideal, as the US plants were dependent on a long umbilical cord
to 
Japanese suppliers. 'Year by year we have been trying to localise parts
supp
ly and create direct production in the US,' he says.
The US operation is sti
ll 20 to 30 per cent dependent on Japan for parts
supply. Honda intends to c
arry the process further, and has recently
established separate overseas ope
rating divisions aimed at decentralising
the international management in ord
er to enhance local flexibility. Honda is
the most advanced in giving a long
 leash to its overseas operations, but all
the Japanese companies are headin
g in the same direction.
The redesign of parts and components themselves has
 recently become
something of a hot topic in Japan, and Yoshifumi Tsuji, pre
sident of Nissan,
has been most vocal about the need to reduce the complexit
y of cars, to use
fewer parts, and to use more common parts in different mod
els, thus allowing
for greater economies of scale in manufacture. Companies 
like Nissan and
Honda competed in recent years by bringing out new models, w
hich were
designed from scratch with little thought about economising on par
ts supply.
Honda's experience with the 1990 Accord, its bread-and-butter mid
-sized car,
however, caused the company to rethink the design process. The c
ar was
loaded with new technology, but was panned by the Japanese press for 
being
old hat, mainly on styling grounds, and it flopped with consumers. Thi
s
begged the question: if consumers were unable to appreciate innovative
eng
ineering throughout the car, was it all necessary? Might not the use of
more
 standardised parts in different models produce a car of equal appeal
and qu
ality?
Tsukamoto is now leading a campaign within Honda to improve what he c
alls
'commonality of design'. The idea is not just to put identical parts in
to
different models, but to set standards for installation, for example,
put
ting mounting holes in the same place on different models. The aim is to
all
ow a relatively inflexible robot to install a wide variety of parts.
Flexibi
lity in this case comes not from the production line itself, but from
the de
sign process.
How far the process can be taken, however, remains an open que
stion,
particularly at a time when automobile technology is changing rapidly
 in
response to tightening environmental and safety standards around the wor
ld.
New technology means changing parts designs that will stand in the way o
f
standardisation.
Shoichiro Toyoda, president of Toyota Motor, is sceptical
. 'We have been
trying to use common parts for a long time, but have not bee
n able to do it
very well,' he admits. Toyoda says that while the concept of
 using common
parts is attractive, in practice it is difficult to achieve wi
thout
compromising the quality of different models of cars, where the engine
ering
requirements are subtly different.
To some extent, Toyoda's scepticism
 reflects the relative efficiency of
Toyota's engineering and manufacturing 
process, which has for years set the
standard for the industry. There may si
mply be less room for improvement at
Toyota.
Toyota has a double advantage b
ecause the scale of its operations is
considerably bigger than the other com
panies, already allowing for greater
economies of scale. And Toyota's habit 
of adopting a cautious, gradualist
approach to new technology, in order to a
void making expensive errors, has
served it well over the years.
For the res
t of the industry, however, the financial pressure to reinvent
the engineeri
ng process is intense. With the bloom having come off the car
market, there 
is less to be gained from dazzling consumers with fancy new
models. Car make
rs have little choice but to try to match Toyota's
efficiency - and to bette
r it if they can.
A previous article on Japanese engineering for flexibility
 appeared on the
Technology Page on July 16.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 81 ==============================================
Transaction #:     81       Transaction Code:  38 (Record Deselected)      

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:21
Selec. Rec. #:      9

Boolean Indexes Used:

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Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
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   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8066</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHSD0AB7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
19
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
 science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the 
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
 computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
 recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the 
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that 
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
 from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity 
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
 mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if 
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
 at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black 
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations 
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
 brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
 a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
 images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
 networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).

These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used

in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with

examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers

to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain 
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps

everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in 
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & 
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the 
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
 smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for 
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy 
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it 
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market. 
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share 
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft 
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
 Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be

very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a 
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater 
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
 records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
 on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see 
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's

earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks

will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says 
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
 still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
  1988    89   
 90    91    92    93    94    95    96    97    98
   na    22.7  31.7  41.
4  52.6  58.8  53.7  47.0  40.0  36.3  37.7
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Co
untries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
    P7372 Prepackaged Software.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<
TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Mar
ket shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 82 ==============================================
Transaction #:     82       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:22
Selec. Rec. #:      9

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8066</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHSD0AB7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
19
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
 science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the 
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
 computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
 recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the 
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that 
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
 from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity 
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
 mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if 
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
 at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black 
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations 
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
 brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
 a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
 images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
 networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).

These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used

in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with

examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers

to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain 
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps

everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in 
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & 
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the 
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
 smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for 
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy 
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it 
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market. 
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share 
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft 
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
 Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be

very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a 
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater 
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
 records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
 on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see 
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's

earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks

will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says 
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
 still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
  1988    89   
 90    91    92    93    94    95    96    97    98
   na    22.7  31.7  41.
4  52.6  58.8  53.7  47.0  40.0  36.3  37.7
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
 ----------
------------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Co
untries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
    P7372 Prepackaged Software.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<
TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Mar
ket shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 83 ==============================================
Transaction #:     83       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:28
Selec. Rec. #:     12

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-12990</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGPA3ABBFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
716
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 JUL 92 / Technology: Driven back to basics - A
s Japanese car makers strive to cut costs, priorities on the production line
 have changed </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEVEN BUTLER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Yosh
ifumi Tsuji, Nissan Motor's new president, has a straightforward message
to 
his staff: build it simple.
Tsuji wants to cut down by half the multiple var
ieties of parts - such as
optional steering wheels - that can go into a Niss
an car. He wants to use
more common parts among different car models, and is
 even looking to bring
down costs by sourcing major components jointly with 
rival car makers.
If the 1980s was the decade when the Japanese automobile c
ompanies dazzled
the world with rapid expansion and a seemingly endless prol
iferation of new
models, the 1990s is forcing the industry back to its engin
eering basics in
an effort to improve profits.
Following last year's dismal 
financial performance, the industry has come
under real pressure for the fir
st time since 1986, when the rapid
appreciation of the yen forced the compan
ies into a round of severe cost
cutting. Operating margins at Nissan Motor's
 parent company in Japan last
year fell to 0.8 per cent, while Mazda was at 
0.9 per cent and Honda at 1.8
per cent. Toyota has yet to report for the yea
r ending in June, but is
unlikely to match Honda.
The cause of poor profitab
ility is not inefficient manufacturing per se.
Indeed Japan's car makers are
 probably the most efficient in the world. Yet
the weak state of automobile 
markets leaves the companies with little choice
but to cut costs, and some c
ompanies believe that considerable scope for
improvement remains.
'Efficienc
y was number two or three in our priorities, after reducing lead
times and i
mproving quality,' says Ryuichi Tsukamoto, executive vice
president at Honda
 Engineering, Honda's production engineering subsidiary.
'Now we cannot deny
 the importance of efficiency, because the business is
facing tough times.'

An engineering solution to the car makers' problems, however, is a tall
orde
r because the companies face conflicting pressures that suggest opposite
sol
utions. The Japanese industry must cope, for example, with a severe
labour s
hortage, which suggests automation may be the answer. Yet automation
is expe
nsive. And increased use of industrial robots reduces flexibility on
product
ion lines at a time when rapidly changing consumer tastes require
increased 
flexibility.
In an attempt to resolve these conflicting pressures, the compa
nies are
focusing on two related areas of the manufacturing process: final a
ssembly
and design.
The most recent trend in final assembly technology dates
 to a small-scale,
experimental factory that Honda ran for two years at its 
1980s. At the plant
Honda introduced what it called General Assembly Trucks 
(Gat) to replace the
traditional assembly line.
In the traditional conveyor 
line, pioneered by Henry Ford, vehicle chassis
rode on a platform of fixed h
eight. The platforms were spaced evenly and
were linked together and pulled 
along by a chain. The line moved at a
uniform speed, ideally never stopping,
 while workers installed parts and
components as the vehicle moved slowly by
.
Yet the old-fashioned conveyor has proved too inflexible. Cars move along 
at
the same speed, spaced evenly regardless of how difficult they are to
ass
emble. If one car has to be stopped because of a problem, they all stop,
bri
nging work to a halt on the whole line. Because planned stops for the
cars a
re impractical, automation using stationery robots is impossible.
Honda's in
novation was to dispense with the link between the platforms.
Instead of bei
ng pulled along by a noisy chain, Honda put the chassis on a
dolly which mov
es under the power of its own electric motor. The motor draws
power by induc
tion from a cable beneath the floor and can also raise and
lower the vehicle
 chassis so that workers never have to bend to install
parts.
Honda's Gat al
so supplies a key that opens the door automation: the dollies
can move at di
fferent speeds, stop precisely to allow robot installation of
components, an
d accelerate and decelerate quickly to keep an expensive robot
used to the m
aximum. And the entire process can be controlled by central
computer, which 
monitors progress of each vehicle by means of an electronic
sensor system on
 the dolly and tells the robots what is coming.
The result is a production l
ine much more pleasant to work on and one which
is much more amenable to aut
omation. Honda concluded it was technically
possible to raise the automation
 rate on final assembly to 30 per cent,
compared with 5 per cent standard in
 the industry.
Honda installed the technology on one line at the Suzuka plan
t, on lines at
East Liberty in Ohio, and will open a plant later this year i
n Swindon using
an advanced version of the system. Honda Engineering also li
censed the basic
technology to Daifuku, the Japanese specialist in factory e
quipment. Daifuku
has sold the system to both Toyota and Nissan, which have 
opened separate
plants in the past year.
The lines are beautiful to watch, w
hen compared with the traditional noisy
and disorderly line. Nissan believes
 it will result in smoother operation on
the final assembly line, since cars
 that are complex to assemble can be
spaced further apart. And if a problem 
arises, only one car need be stopped,
allowing it to catch up later.
Yet whe
ther the technology offers a true solution for the industry's
problems is an
other question. For one, the line costs between two and three
times as much 
to install as a traditional conveyor system, yet by itself
does not contribu
te anything to raising productivity.
The improvement in productivity only co
mes after additional spending on
robots. When Honda installed its Suzuka lin
e in 1989, it lifted the level of
automation to 18 per cent. Tsukamoto says 
this raised labour productivity on
the line by between 15 to 17 per cent. Bu
t Honda has shelved a plan to
install more robots on the line to raise the a
utomation ratio to 30 per
cent. It is too expensive.
Tsukamoto says that to 
replace one worker with machinery can cost between
Y10m (Pounds 42,000) and 
Y80m, depending on the process. Honda is willing to
spend the money when it 
relieves a particularly onerous manual task, or when
the investment results 
in a large improvement in quality.
One area where Honda has not skimped is o
n machinery for automated,
simultaneous installation of car suspension and e
ngines. By mounting and
fastening all bolts simultaneously, Tsukamoto says, 
a more precise fit is
obtained, allowing for improved handling and ride. Sim
ultaneous bolt
fastening prevents the accumulation of minor alignment errors
.
The robots also provide rapid feedback. If a single bolt hole is misaligne
d,
the machines quit. On a traditional line, a slightly misaligned bolt hole

will rarely slow down a worker, who will put the thing together anyway. The

worker will still have to intervene on Honda's automated line when holes do

not match, but because the robots detect quality problems instantly, the
so
urce can be traced immediately and corrected.
Honda's Gat system offers the 
potential to save labour, improve quality and
increase flexibility. Whether 
this potential can be exploited to the
financial benefit of the car makers, 
however, depends very much on other
links in the engineering chain.
A furthe
r article on engineering for flexibility will appear shortly.
</TEXT>
<PUB>T
he Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 16 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 84 ==============================================
Transaction #:     84       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:45
Selec. Rec. #:     13

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-1129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIXB5AFBFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
24
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  24 SEP 92 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (
1): Avoidable problems  -Computers have changed the face of manufacturing in
 the past 20 years, but often the wrong systems have been installed. New sof
tware developments now provide the opportunity to avoid previous problems </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE FACTORY of the f
uture may fast be turning into a present-day reality,
but suppliers and cust
omers in perhaps the most complex and diverse modern
industrial sectors are 
still learning lessons from the mistakes of the past.
Computers - corporate-
level mainframes, computer-aided design (Cad) in the
drawing office, product
ion control systems, manufacturing resource planning
systems and much more b
esides - have changed the face of manufacturing over
the past 20 years. Ofte
n, however, they have simply added to manufacturing's
problems.
Customers on
 both sides of the Atlantic have bought too much equipment,
believing that c
omputer - integrated manufacturing was simply a case of
giving everyone a co
mputer screen, bought oversophisticated equipment,
failed to understand the 
cultural implications of a computer investment or
simply bought the wrong sy
stem for their needs.
Suppliers bear much of the blame. Dr Matthew Barekat, 
managing director of
Company Doctors International, recalls a case where the
 supplier of software
to control a batch manufacturing system tried to convi
nce a process
manufacturer, for which the system would have been totally uns
uitable, to
purchase the system by changing it very slightly.
Episodes like 
this go some way to explain the very high failure rates of,
and unrealistic 
expectations for, computers in the manufacturing
environment. At the same ti
me, there has also been considerable
dissatisfaction at board level about co
mpanies' computer investments,
because they have hitherto been seen by chief
 executives as islands of
automation that have not been linked together prop
erly, says Mr Garreth
Evans, Computervision's UK managing director.
But atti
tudes are now changing, just as manufacturers themselves are trying
to simpl
ify their production processes to address the big competitive
challenges of 
the 1990s.
The move towards small, simple manufacturing cells with varying l
evels of
automation is aimed at producing truly flexible manufacturing and s
harply
reducing cycle times, and manufacturers are looking for computer syst
ems
that support rather than smother the process.
And just as the recession 
is forcing chief executives to control capital
spending tightly, bosses are 
at last realising that they have to become
involved in the major computer de
cisions that might previously have been
left to separate departments.
Indeed
, manufacturers have to understand the need to develop a business
strategy a
nd then find the right computer system, rather than the other way
round, say
s Mr John Crampton, a director of Ingersoll Engineers.
The change in attitud
e coincides with some important technology developments
 -in software at lea
st - over the past two or three years, with more to
come, that hold the key 
to achieving what Frost & Sullivan, the market
research group, recently call
ed 'a factory in which there is computer-based,
seamless integration of peop
le functions, information technology, and
manufacturing processes to achieve
 business objectives defined by management
goals'.
That is achievable now, a
lthough too many manufacturers are held back by
their past mistakes, and by,
 for example, computer-aided engineering
software that cannot communicate wi
th a business mainframe. On Tuesday,
however, the start of the three-day Com
puters in Manufacturing show at
Birmingham's National Exhibition Centre will
 show how many of the old
problems can be avoided.
Experts on the use of com
puters in manufacturing point to a number of
significant developments over t
he past two to three years. The introduction
of so-called fourth generation 
computer languages has done a great deal,
says Dr Barekat, to increase compu
ters' flexibility, and offered a real
opportunity to write a new breed of so
ftware for industry.
The trend towards open systems - non-exclusive, non-pro
prietary standards
for computer and communication environments - also offers
 immense
opportunities for manufacturers to create effective interfaces betw
een
different elements of their computer systems. 'Vendors who remain
propri
etorial will go to the wall - and a good thing too,' says Mr Evans.
If appli
ed correctly, such developments ought to go a long way to address
what is no
w seen almost universally as the key challenge for major western
world manuf
acturers in the 1990s - reducing 'time-to-market' or product
development tim
es. The concept of 'concurrent engineering' where all
sections of a company,
 and often its suppliers, work in teams to develop new
products, rather than
 taking on each task in sequence, is rapidly gaining
acceptance.
Achieving i
t is partly a cultural issue - Japanese manufacturers have called
the tune o
n product development times without heavy reliance on technology.
The use of
 three-dimensional Cad, seen in the west as a prerequisite for
successful co
ncurrent engineering, is surprisingly rare in Japan.
Western companies have 
traditionally found the 'people issues' surrounding
manufacturing technology
 hard to handle - the 'failure' of MRPII
(manufacturing resources planning),
 one of the vogue computerised systems of
the 1970s for providing company-wi
de production information, is widely
attributed to a lack of training, or of
 involvement of users in the initial
purchasing decision.
Hence the relative
ly high priority given to technology solutions. Some of
the major technology
 contributions to reducing time-to-market are happening
within discrete part
s of the process. The use of parametrics, an
'intelligent' system which auto
matically adjusts a Cad design for the change
of one or more dimensions, is 
'taking off' says Mr Crampton, citing a
manufacturing company which was able
 to output a design that previously took
three months in three to four minut
es.
Increasingly, however, manufacturers are realising the need for accurate
,
shared information to be available to all departments which participate in

the concurrent engineering process - and external suppliers. This puts an
a
dded premium on company-wide engineering databases and data interchange,
the
 success of which will depend crucially on open systems.
Mr Keith Nichols, d
irector of EDS Scicon's manufacturing consultancy, says
the bulk of product 
databases are supporting small teams, but reports
considerable progress in t
he UK over the past three years towards what he
calls the 'million file chal
lenge,' an indication that the product database
is broad enough for informat
ion to be truly shared.
Another problem area, he says, is in technology link
s with suppliers. As big
manufacturers increasingly push design work out to 
subcontractors, the need
for accurate, updated information grows. 'If you fr
eeze a supply chain now,
you would find that 50 per cent of the data is out-
of-date, he says.'
This points up the need for electronic data interchange (
EDI) links between
manufacturers and subcontractors, especially when large n
umbers of companies
are involved. AT&T Istel, for example, is working on a p
ilot programme with
Rover which will eventually link the UK car producer wit
h 200 suppliers via
an electronic 'mailbox'.
The recession may have turned m
anufacturers into more discerning customers
for computer systems, but has al
most certainly increased their resolve to
address the big manufacturing issu
es in order to survive.
The use and importance of computers also changes sig
nificantly during a
recession, according to Ms Anthea Ballam of the consulta
nts Ballam Malaguti
International. The information provided by computers bec
omes much more
valuable than in boom times when the finer points of the manu
facturing
control system tend to be overlooked, she says. Meanwhile, cuts in

management layers have obliged managers to work across the boundaries of
th
eir sphere of operation, and acquire a more integrated picture of the
whole 
manufacturing operation.
It is partly for these reasons, therefore, that the
 inevitable downturn in
spending during the recession has been significantly
 less than for capital
equipment as a whole. A survey by Benchmark Research,
 to be released for the
CIM show, says UK industry plans to spend Pounds 1.5
bn on computer-based
manufacturing applications in the next 12 months, down 
just 4 per cent on
the previous year.
The survey, encouragingly, shows that 
open systems are beginning to take
off, with 22 per cent of manufacturing si
tes that have computers using open
systems against 15 per cent in 1991. And 
84 per cent of the 1,300 sites
surveyed said the need to integrate systems w
as a major reason for
investment.
Suppliers will be trying to address their 
needs in the 1990s with products
that currently remain on the drawing-board.
 One emerging area, says AT&T
Istel, is ERP or enterprise resource planning 
- a phrase coined by the
Gartner Group, the US consultancy - which will use 
technologies such as
artificial intelligence and relational databases to cre
ate a complete 'data
model' for all aspects of multi-company enterprises, in
cluding Europe's big
manufacturers.
At the shopfloor level, Dr Barekat has a
dvocated the concept of 'distributed
MRP,' small-scale MRPII systems at manu
facturing cell level, linked by a
plant-wide network of PCs or workstations 
but giving each cell
responsibility for its own scheduling. The 'passive' IT
 users, meanwhile -
accounts, sales and administrative departments - keep a 
conventional
centralised MRPII system.
One can be fairly confident that yet 
more acronyms will be coined over the
next few years to replace those that h
ave fallen out of favour.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lon
don Page 31 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 85 ==============================================
Transaction #:     85       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-3402</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCPCCAF1FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac
ture (1): Farewell to sweat-shops - A rapidly rising proportion of electroni
c equipment is now manufactured on behalf of the big international suppliers
 by outside contractors. Paul Taylor probes the reasons for the emergence of
 this expanding force within one of the world's predominant industries </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PAUL TAYLOR </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
CONTRACT electronics manu
facturing (CEM) has become the fastest growing
sector of the European electr
onics industry and is on target to become a
Dollars 22bn global business by 
the mid-1990s.
In the UK a group of dedicated contract electronics manufactu
rers have
successfully shaken off the second-rate 'sweat-shop' image of sub-
contract
and assembly work in the 1960s by investing heavily in advanced pro
duction
and test equipment, training and quality processes.
Today their big 
customers are blue chip multinationals such as IBM, Sony,
Bosch, Motorola, A
EG, and Matsushita which require fast response times,
flexibility and first 
class quality, as well as cost-effective
manufacturing. These companies are 
using contract manufacturers as part of
their global strategies to maintain 
and improve international
competitiveness.
From humble beginnings the UK ind
ustry has entered what Mr Bruce Armstrong,
managing director of SCI Europe, 
describes as its third phase - strategic
global partnerships between OEMs an
d contract manufacturers which can
provide full turnkey services from design
 and printed circuit board layout,
through to product distribution.
A handfu
l of factors have fuelled the growth in CEM over the past decade. In
particu
lar, the pace of technological change has resulted in shortened
product life
 cycles requiring increased manufacturing flexibility and
worldwide manufact
uring capability. In order to remain competitive in fast
moving consumer-led
 markets companies have had to reduce the period it takes
to bring new produ
cts to market.
At the same time electronic controls are replacing electro-me
chanical
devices in many consumer products such as cars and medical equipmen
t whose
manufacturers have little or no electronics manufacturing experience
 or
capacity.
Meanwhile, the continuing push for smaller, more portable but 
more
sophisticated products such as mobile phones and notebook computers req
uires
greater silicon integration and results in more complex devices. These
 are
best manufactured using advanced techniques for placing components on
p
rinted circuit boards such as surface mount technology which require
expensi
ve specialist machinery and expertise to design, assemble and test
and which
 involve considerable 'manufacturing risk' because of market
volatility.
The
 trend towards CEM also mirrors the move towards buying in a wide range
of s
ervice and other peripheral corporate functions, backed by the
management th
eory that organisations should focus on their 'core
competencies' and contra
ct out every thing else - creating what some
observers have called 'the virt
ual corporation'.
Recessionary pressures have forced some managements to rec
onsider the 'make
or buy' decision. But generally, although contract manufac
turing can result
in cost savings, most participants argue this should not b
e the primary
motivation.
The arrival of the single European market has enco
uraged many Japanese and
other original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to se
t up locally in Europe.
As MHM, a market research organisation based in Ayr,
 Scotland, noted in its
latest study of the European CEM market, business fr
om these companies 'has
fuelled spectacular expansion in at least one CEM ho
use'.
MHM describes the growth of the UK market in the 1980s as 'spectacular
'. The
turnover of the six largest sub-contract companies in the UK, SCI, Ra
ce,
Avex, AB, Philips, Welwyn and Timex, grew by an average 42 per cent per 
year
between 1984 and 1990.
Growth has slowed considerably since then, in pa
rt reflecting the recession
and the sharp price war in the computer and IT s
ector which accounts for a
still large, but declining, proportion of the CEM
 industry order book - a
trend which has been partly offset by increased dem
and from new customers in
the automotive, telecommunications and industrial 
sectors.
According to the Association of Contract Electronics Manufacturers 
(ACeM),
part of the Electronic Components Industry Federation (ECIF), formed
 in 1990
to provide a voice for the emerging industry, the overall UK market
 was
worth about Pounds 550m last year, and is growing at an underlying annu
al
rate of 10-15 per cent. ACeM membership now totals 48 contractors
represe
nting 70-80 per cent of the UK CEM industry which, despite being
capital int
ensive, employs around 10,000 people.
'Rapid growth over the last 10 years h
as resulted in a fragmented industry
expanding on the back of a rapidly expa
nding electronics industry,' said Mr
Eric Luckwell, chairman of Datalink Ser
vices, a small Loughborough-based
CEM, in a study of the UK market.
'The cap
ability of these organisations ranges from the very high volume and
complex 
technological process, such as surface mount technology and
automatic compon
ent insertion, to the very low volume and simple labour
intensive processes,
' he said.
Mr Derek Duffett, ACeM director, groups the UK CEM market into fo
ur groups.
Large companies dedicated to contract electronics include SCI and
 Avex,
Scottish subsidiaries of US groups, which are also multinationals in 
their
own right and whose main business is high volume, low margin work for 
big
OEMs.
Their particular strengths are their capacity, sophisticated autom
ated
manufacturing systems, substantial component purchasing power and world
wide
facilities. 'Our customers are global, so are we,' says Carol Brannigan
,
Avex Electronic's European sales and marketing director and chairman of
AC
eM's Promotions Committee.
'European customers and global companies operatin
g in Europe are telling us
they need total product life cycle management ser
vices not just PCB assembly
and test,' she says. In response big CEMs are bu
ilding what she calls 'a
transparent or seamless partnership' linking CEM an
d customer using
electronic data interchange (EDI), integrated MRP (Material
s Requirement
Planning) systems, CAD/CAM design systems and electronic mail.

Medium-sized dedicated CEMs are the second group. These generally maintain

close links with OEM design houses working in specialist applications areas,

such as the industrial and professional markets. Almost half of ACeM's
memb
ership falls into this category with most companies employing between
100 an
d 500 people. They include Welwyn Systems, the contract electronics
subsidia
ry of the TT Group which also acquired AB Contract Electronics last
year, an
d Race Electronics. Small start-up companies, the third group,
emphasise the
ir flexibility and personalised service, particularly to
entrepreneurial bus
inesses which may want prototypes built and tested or
require low to medium 
manufacturing volumes.
The in-house contracting departments of original equi
pment manufacturers.
These units have been created to fill spare capacity or
 diversify into new
areas. Established players include Philips Circuit assem
blies and Rank-Xerox
Manufacturing Services. These companies often have acce
ss to specialised
environmental and test equipment in design and failure ana
lysis.
Recently they have been joined by other OEMs with excess capacity whi
ch,
together with the arrival in Europe of new Far East competitors such as

Flextronics, is causing concern in an industry which arguably already has
ex
cess capacity and thin margins.
'Presently the CEM industry can stand the ad
ditional capacity better than
many other mature electronics sectors,' said t
he MHM report, 'but this
situation will not continue indefinitely.'
An indus
try shake-out and reorganisation is widely expected amid forecasts
that the 
industry will become increasingly polarised between the high
volume, low mar
gin multinational CEMs, and the much smaller niche companies.
Mr Gordon Stew
art, UK director of specialist management consultants
Pittiglio Rabin Todd &
 McGrath, told an ACeM conference in October that the
dominant feature of th
e CEM industry in the 1990s will be the performance
gap between an emerging 
super- league of multinational manufacturers and a
horde of increasingly mar
ginalised smaller competitors.
Because the UK market is maturing most of the
 large CEMs are adopting the
twin strategies of trying to win back business 
which has gone offshore,
particularly to the Far East, while also expanding 
overseas themselves.
Armed with internationally accepted quality assurance s
tandards and total
quality management programmes the UK's leading CEMs have 
been stressing the
importance of looking at total costs - including loss of 
flexibility and
transport delays - in their attempts to win back offshore bu
siness, and have
been having some success. They are also helped by the incre
asingly capital
intensive nature of the business, which means that labour co
st differentials
are growing less important.
However, they are handicapped b
y the prevailing duty and tariff structure
which provides a significant ince
ntive to import printed circuit boards or
fully built equipment, which are m
ostly subject to a 4.5 per cent tariff,
rather than semiconductors and other
 components which are generally subject
to a 14 per cent tariff. The ACeM ha
s begun to campaign for a more even
playing field, arguing that a tariff cha
nge could help generate thousands of
manufacturing jobs in the UK.
At the sa
me time some CEMs have begun to establish footholds on the
continent. The UK
 CEM market is considerably more developed than most of its
European counter
 parts. The Germany market in particular is expected to grow
rapidly and, to
gether with France, is attracting attention.
Overall the European CEM market
 is reckoned to be worth about Dollars 6bn -
which still leaves OEMs underta
king the vast majority of electronics
manufacturing in-house. Despite their 
growth contract manufacturers have
still only captured a fraction of the pot
ential European market.
Arguably, of all the changes in the electronics indu
stry over the past
decade, the one that has gone most unnoticed, has been th
e emergence of
quality contract electronics manufacturers. That is now chang
ing.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-

</XX>
<IN>P36   Electronic and Other Electric Equipment.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-

</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MGMT  Management.
</TP>
<PUB>The Fi
nancial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 33 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 86 ==============================================
Transaction #:     86       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-13372</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGNBPADBFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
714
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 JUL 92 / Survey of World Automotive Components
 (9): Tomorrow's car takes shape - A look ahead into the future of motoring 
</HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JEFF DANIELS </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE proportion of a
 car's value represented by bought-in components is
steadily increasing alth
ough the basic pattern of car manufacture has
changed but little in recent y
ears.
The vehicle manufacturer invariably produces the body shell, almost al
ways
the engine (with its own proportion of bought-in parts) and more often 
than
not the transmission. All other components are purchased for direct
ins
tallation, and this is the area in which car value has been increasing
faste
st.
The process will inevitably continue at a rate which will comfortably
ou
tstrip the growth of car production measured in raw units. Consumer demand
f
or ever higher levels of comfort, performance and equipment have gone
hand-i
n-hand with legislation for more safety and cleaner exhausts to ensure
this.

A particular area of technology that has become the component suppliers'
pr
eserve is electronically-controlled systems. While nobody should
underestima
te the electronic expertise of the vehicle manufacturers
themselves, they ar
e simply not in the business of producing electronic
components in large num
bers - unless they do so via dedicated subsidiaries,
as do General Motors an
d Toyota, for example.
While the popular image of an electronic system is th
at of a 'black box'
computer which exercises control over the operation of s
ome aspect of the
car, the reality is that the black box and its contents ar
e the (relatively)
easy part. To exert control, the computer must first asse
ss circumstances by
means of various types of sensor. It must then act to co
ntrol the situation
by means of output devices or transducers.
It is in the 
area of sensors and transducers that some of the most intense
development of
 vehicle components is taking place, placing component-sector
companies with
 related expertise, such as Germany's Bosch and Japan's NGK,
in a very stron
g position.
The first serious application of electronic control systems to t
he car was
in the management of engine operation. It is now commonplace to h
ave a
single computer controlling ignition and fuel injection, the latter
pa
rticularly with the aim of reducing exhaust emissions. New regulations
conce
rning emission control systems have placed extra demands on systems and
sens
ors: for example, US and Japanese legislation will shortly demand the
in-car
 monitoring of catalytic converter efficiency, calling for oxygen
content 'l
ambda' sensors to be installed upstream and downstream of the
converter.
The
 adaptability and availability of electronic engine control systems may
yet 
bring about a revolution in basic engine design: none of the development
tea
ms now working hard on two-stroke engine projects would pretend they
could m
ake their units work properly without the speed and precision of
electronic 
control.
Electronics has since migrated to the control of automatic transmis
sion. No
designer of such transmissions would today contemplate any other ap
proach.
Without electronics, the control mechanism of the latest five-speed

transmissions would be too heavy and complex to be seriously contemplated.
N
or would there be any question of systems which adapted their shift
patterns
 to the driver's own technique, as some of the new units do. With
automatic 
transmissions in Japan now making the breakthrough to American
levels of sal
es penetration, and with confident predictions that Europe will
follow suit,
 this will be an important growth area.
Another transmission-related area in
 which rapid growth is expected is that
of traction control systems, which o
perate to detect incipient wheelspin and
to prevent it either by cutting bac
k power or by partial brake operation.
It is also expected that limited-slip
 differential units, with or without
electronic control, will become much mo
re widely fitted.
The chassis is the part of the car most recently to have f
elt the impact of
electronic engineering. We have become more and more famil
iar with
electronic anti-lock braking but today's developments go further. M
ore and
more up-market cars are now offered with electronic control of suspe
nsion
operation, adapting its stiffness to the road surface and to the car's

behaviour: soft when cruising on a smooth road, firm when driven briskly on

a rough or winding one.
Development in this area is rapid and the potential
 for expansion is huge.
Among other things, engineers have long since moved 
on from considerations
of mere ride comfort to study the subtle effects on c
ar stability and
handling of varying suspension stiffness between the front 
and rear of the
vehicle. Further into the future, chassis specialists are ex
amining the
possible advantages of electronic 'steer by wire' replacing mech
anical
linkages.
The components industry has already greatly benefited from 
the much greater
amount of comfort and convenience equipment now fitted espe
cially to
up-market cars. There has been a trend towards the power operation
 of almost
anything that moves. Electric windows and centralised locking hav
e been
joined by power-operated seats, mirrors and sunroof.
Car manufacturer
s are beginning to count the number of electric motors
installed in luxury-l
evel models in dozens. In spite of warnings from some
quarters that such dev
elopments are driving up the weight, the complexity
and the cost of cars to 
undesirable levels, the trend seems inexorable.
Serious consideration has al
ready been given to multiplexing and 'databus'
systems to reduce the now hug
e amount of wiring in modern luxury cars.
Beyond the area of mere comfort an
d convenience, there looms the huge
potential market for equipment to link c
ars with each other and with the
environment - the kind of equipment beginni
ng to emerge from the
pan-European Prometheus research programme, for exampl
e. It is now possible
to conceive of equipment which would enable a car to b
e precisely aware of
its position (and duly to inform its driver) and thus t
o be able to
calculate the shortest and quickest route to its pre- programme
d
destination, taking account of any temporary delays and ensuring safety vi
a
automatic vehicle separation and optimised road-space sharing.
Any such sy
stem would inevitably be a high-value item, and would certainly
be supplied 
by the component manufacturing sector. Virtually all the
necessary technolog
y has already been demonstrated: the remaining problems,
not to be underesti
mated, involve its integration into complete systems and
more particularly, 
the standardisation of communications protocols and other
operational aspect
s.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</D
OC>

============= Transaction # 87 ==============================================
Transaction #:     87       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-139</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQACWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (2
):  Confusion over the levels of integration and flexibility - Intelligent M
achine Tools, a different approach </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER 
</BYLINE>
<TEXT>
IN the beginning there were machine tools, the workhorses o
f every
mechanical engineering workshop in the world, which are used for cut
ting,
grinding and shaping lumps of metal to form components for all sorts o
f
industrial products or machinery.
Then, over the past 25 years, came numer
ical control and computer numerical
control (CNC), in the form of user-frien
dly units attached to the machine
tool which can be part-programmed on line 
by the operator or off-line in the
production engineering office.
Hand-in-ha
nd with the CNC units, whose software can control almost any type
of machine
 tool, new designs of machine produced the higher precision,
stiffness and s
tability to take advantage of the greater accuracy that CNC
offers.
CNC, whe
n applied to single machine tools, is well-established, and more
than 80 per
 cent of Japanese machine tools are numerically-controlled. The
units are po
werful enough to control 'machining centres', which can often do
the work of
 eight or more standard machine tools, and may contain more than
100 differe
nt cutting tools.
As the cost of computing power has come down, the economic
s of computer
memory storage have been transformed, and CNC units can store 
and recall
hundreds of different instructions for a great variety of workpie
ces.
From the mid-1980s, further developments in CNC technology have produce
d the
concept of a 'flexible manufacturing system' (FMS), two or more machin
ing
centres linked and coupled under the control of a host computer. The
imp
ortant word is 'flexible,' according to the UK Machine Tool Technologies
Ass
ociation: 'The combined power of the machine and host computer, and their
st
orage memories, is enough to manufacture all prescribed varieties of work,
i
n any order.'
FMS is now being being linked to computer-aided design and pro
duction
control to produce manufacturing industry's Holy Grail, Computer Int
egrated
Manufacturing (Cim).
The aim is to link 'islands of automation' on t
he factory floor with all the
other computerised functions of the manufactur
ing process, such as
purchasing, ordering, stock control and is proving to b
e a tougher challenge
than many in the computer industry had predicted only 
three years ago.
Put at its simplest, there appears to be considerable confu
sion among
manufacturers about how integrated their approach to Cim should b
e, or how
flexible their use of FMS. The situation is not helped by a prolif
eration of
computer suppliers, all keen to sell their product but varying in
 their
commitment to service and support.
Dr Norman Schofield, director of e
ngineering and systems at PA Consulting
Group, says there are very good tech
nical reasons why Cim has been difficult
for many companies to achieve.
Comp
anies had believed that, to stay competitive, they needed to buy the
best av
ailable computers for each of the many different disciplines in the
manufact
uring process - packaging, software, documentation, electronics and
mechanic
al engineering.
This, in turn, increased the size and complexity of the 'dat
a package'
describing the product, and spread the data over many systems.
In
 one recent assignment, PA found 41 different applications used in a
company
's design/engineering process alone, on six different computer
platforms, on
 10 sites in three countries.
The problem for the manufacturer, says Dr Scho
field, is whether it is going
to get independent advice from any of its comp
uter suppliers if it wishes to
integrate its systems. PA has attempted to he
lp clients through the maze by
building its own Cim centre using four comput
ers and 12 software
applications from nine different suppliers.
The aim is t
o illustrate the many elements involved in applying Cim to the
relatively si
mple task of putting parts on to printed circuit boards.
Dr Schofield believ
es that open systems will be the key to developing
progress towards Cim, and
 says most computer vendors are prepared to accept
the inevitability of an o
pen environment.
'Manufacturers are getting a lot more help from suppliers, 
which is all
leading to easier integration.'
However, he says manufacturers 
can help solve their integration problems
themselves in two ways.
The first 
goes back to the machine tool itself: manufacturers, if they have
the clout,
 can insist that all their machine tool suppliers install the same
controlle
r.
Secondly, manufacturers have to accept that integrated systems can be too

heirarchical. 'Where you can have autonomy (in a flexible manufacturing
sys
tem, for example) you should let it happen. Some failed systems have
tried t
o make things too rigid.'
Indeed studies of the influence of FMS in the US s
ince the mid-1980s have
shown that it is often a misnomer, since the system 
may be inflexible in its
design and the way in which it is used. Also severa
l reports have claimed
that systems installed in the US lack the flexibility
 of those in Japan.
A recent report on the US FMS market by Frost & Sullivan
, the market
research publishers, says worldwide competition is forcing adop
tion of
flexible manufacturing in a variety of industries, but is becoming
i
ncreasingly important to batch-oriented manufacturers as product
life-cycles
 shorten and product changes become more frequent.
F & S forecasts that sale
s of FMS equipment will rise from Dollars 266m in
1990 to Dollars 559m in 19
95 (in constant 1990 dollars).
The biggest obstacle to installing equipment 
is price, and more companies
will be starting with the more limited flexible
 manufacturing cells (FMCs).
In the UK, British Aerospace has taken a novel 
approach to Cim by developing
its own manufacturing control system, Cimitar,
 which provides a
sophisticated computerised link between management informa
tion systems and
shop-floor controllers.
BAe began the Cimitar programme in 
1983 after discovering that computer
companies could not satisfy its large-s
cale requirement for shop-floor
control systems. A separate company, BAeCAM,
 was set up in 1988 to develop
and market Cimitar worldwide, but Mr Brian En
twhistle, general manager, says
it was decided from the start to develop a g
eneric product that could be
sold on the open market.
Cimitar, which uses DE
C's Vax hardware, is in use throughout BAe but BAeCAM
recently signed up Cat
erpillar, the US construction equipment group, as a
user. Mr Entwhistle hope
s this will provide a reference for further US
sales.
BAeCAM has also instal
led part of Cimitar on to an IBM PC that runs a
machine tool at BAe, elevati
ng it from the normal download of data and
selection of tools and satisfying
 the need for complex communications
between the tools and the host computer
.
As companies continue to grapple with the challenges of Cim, and consultan
ts
to explain them, its ascendancy is being challenged by another acronym, P
im,
product information management, alternatively known as EDM, engineering 
data
management. Dr Charles Clarke of London-based Random Computing says tha
t,
just as Cim was the catalyst for integrating manufacture, so Pim forces t
he
user to understand the existing process before being able to manage it or

use it.
The characteristics of Pim/EDM, which has also been described as a 
short cut
to Cim via Cadcam, include data management and control and data na
vigation
mechanisms, but the aim is enterprise-wide control of information.

This, says Dr Charles Clarke, liberates the user and allows true concurrent

engineering - designing a product and allowing its manufacture
simultaneousl
y - for the first time.
'It links the islands of automation that yesterday's
 manufacturing industry
nurtured and constrains the 'paper flow' monster wit
h its attendant
road-blocks and bottle-necks,' he says with an enthusiasm fo
r metaphor
rarely found in studies of computers in manufacturing.
</TEXT>
<P
UB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page II Photograph The British A
erospace small parts flexible manufacturing system, Preston, England (Omitte
d). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 88 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-7461</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CHTAOAB4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9208
18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 92 / Technology: Robots in bulk - Andrew Ba
xter describes how the humble warehouse is opening its doors to automation <
/HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Looming over Britis
h Steel's tinplate works in a steep valley at Ebbw Vale
is a somewhat forbid
ding structure. It may not win any architectural awards
but its contents hol
d the key to a problem that British manufacturers
frequently ignore.
Over th
e past decade, industrialists have modernised their production
processes to 
survive in increasingly competitive markets, but updating the
warehouse next
 door tends to get overlooked.
'Companies worry about the introduction of au
tomation that does not come
within the sphere of their experience,' says Jac
k Haggett, managing director
of Haden Technology, the UK warehouse technolog
y and logistics company.
'There's a little bit of technofear.'
At Ebbw Vale,
 British Steel decided some six years ago to bring its
warehouse up to the s
ame technological standard as its production plant by
introducing a modern s
torage and handling system.
The aim, says British Steel, was to achieve a mu
ch-improved delivery
performance, better stock control, save energy - automa
ted systems can work
in the dark - and reduce damage by cutting manual inter
vention to a minimum.
The solution was commissioned in 1990 - a 32-metre-tal
l automated highbay
warehouse with 14,748 rack locations for tinplate coils 
and bulks, packed
with automatic guided vehicles (AGVs), stacker cranes and 
conveyers and
controlled by a computerised management system linked to the B
ritish Steel
tinplate computer.
With the warehouse fully operational, all th
e expected savings have been
achieved, says British Steel.
Highbay warehouse
s sit like giant shoe-boxes on their long sides throughout
continental Europ
e, but are rather thinner on the ground in the UK. Haggett,
whose Letchworth
-based company designed the Ebbw Vale system, says Germany
is investing 10 t
imes as much in automated warehousing as the UK.
There are a number of reaso
ns for this, he says. Planning problems are a
genuine concern in the UK - hi
ghbay warehouses may not be rejected outright
by planning authorities but of
ten have to be enhanced externally, thus
raising the cost.
UK industry also 
demands a 20-25 per cent return on its capital, which does
not seem to be th
e case in Germany, says Haggett. 'There they look at the
whole-life cost of 
whether, for example, it is cheaper to use wheelbarrows
or conveyers.'
Then 
again, a cheaper low-rise warehouse may lose some of the efficiency
gains of
 its highbay counterparts, but is easier to convert to other uses.
'That's a
 perceived problem with highbay warehouses in the UK,' says
Haggett.
Joachim
 Miebach, founder of Frankfurt-based Miebach Logistic Systems, offers
anothe
r reason for the different approach in the UK, where the company has
recentl
y undertaken a number of big automated warehousing and logistics
projects vi
a its office in Oxford.
'I have a feeling that in the UK there is some reluc
tance to use machinery
to solve a warehousing problem, and a preference to u
se IT only - barcoding,
checking systems and sophisticated inventory control
.
'In Switzerland, and especially in Germany, the tendency is to start with

the machinery - highbay warehouses and stacker cranes. These have to be
auto
mated, so IT is a necessary consequence.'
The recession has also had a damag
ing effect on UK automated warehousing
investments, reducing the market to a
bout a quarter of its level at the end
of the 1980s. However, UK inquiry lev
els have recently risen just as
continental European business begins to slow
.
Redressing the balance in the UK will depend partly on companies such as
H
aden and Miebach raising their profile. 'All our work shows there are
tremen
dous cost savings from high-tech automated warehousing,' says Haggett.
'But 
it is hard to break through the barriers.'
One way to achieve it is to have 
allies among the customers. Assuming a
company has a fairly high level of ac
tivity with fast movement of goods,
there then needs to be what Haggett call
s a 'crazy man' pushing through
fundamental change that is 'off the process'
 or separate from the main
effort to update production technology.
For the l
ayman, a look inside a highbay warehouse at work might easily bring
on an at
tack of 'technofear'. Deciding the right combination of the
available techno
logies, organising equipment purchases from a big range of
mainly continenta
l suppliers, and taking turnkey responsibility for the
warehouse and its int
egration with production is a challenging task.
Over the past five years, on
e of the most important developments in European
warehousing has been in att
itudes to computer control. Centralised systems
controlling all the details 
have been found to be too costly and
time-consuming, leading to a trend towa
rds decentralisation with
self-contained computer systems for separate wareh
ouse functions passing up
only the necessary data to the main computer.
AGVs
, the driverless warhorses of modern warehouses, are also changing, with
the
 traditional wire guidance system being replaced by more sophisticated
contr
ols. These could either be a robot-style teaching method, where the AGV
repe
ats a movement automatically after being taken through it manually; or
throu
gh vision systems which enable the AGV to recognise a pre-programmed
route.

But prospects for further applications of robots in warehouses are limited.

While well-established, and increasingly reliable, at picking and placing
la
yers of goods, they still have difficulty adapting to the huge variety of
go
ods found at an average warehouse.
Consequently, the trend in warehousing to
wards fast delivery of small
quantities of goods at high frequencies can be 
hard for a robot to handle,
although they are making a mark in niche markets
 such as in pharmaceutical
warehouses, where packages are more uniform.
Comp
anies like Haden and Miebach spend a lot of time talking to robotics
supplie
rs in the hope of pushing for improvements, but the real problem,
says Mieba
ch, is that 'we have not come across the warehouse robot that can
imitate th
e movement of the human hand'.
Sometimes, though, there are occasions when n
o mechanical solutions are
necessary. 'There have been times when we've told
 a client to paint a few
lines on the floor, buy a PC with a warehouse manag
ement program, and the
problem will be solved,' says Haggett.
</TEXT>
<PUB>T
he Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 89 ==============================================
Transaction #:     89       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>

<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by 
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry 
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having 
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens 
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern 
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot 
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of 
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.

A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry 
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding. 
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally 
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near 
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not 
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical

sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 90 ==============================================
Transaction #:     90       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>

<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by 
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry 
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having 
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens 
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern 
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot 
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of 
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.

A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry 
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding. 
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally 
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near 
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not 
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical

sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 91 ==============================================
Transaction #:     91       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>

<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by 
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry 
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having 
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens 
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern 
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot 
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of 
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.

A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry 
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding. 
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally 
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near 
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not 
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical

sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 92 ==============================================
Transaction #:     92       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT934-8386</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DKPCNACSFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9311
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed
ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide
 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
At the LVD machin
e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw
puzzle map of Eu
rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a
piece of blue fo
am rubber about half an inch thick.
A long way further east in Ukraine, auto
matic dismantling lines designed by
Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq
uipment group, will soon be in place
to begin dismantling more than 200,000 
tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition.
The link between these two events is w
ater. LVD is one of the most recent
entrants, while I-R was one of the pione
ers in waterjet cutting technology.
This process is in use by, or being cons
idered by, a wide range of
industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston
e and glass cutters. So
far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th
e biggest users of the
process.
As is also the case with most technologies i
nvolving water, the basics of
the process are simple. Water is filtered, the
n passed through a powerful
pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of
 a nozzle with a diameter
varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t
o 4,000bar.
The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet
ween Mach
two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo
ds, thin
wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if

abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet
c
utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems
i
n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry.
B
ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest
world
wide.
I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r
ival,
Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu
des
companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi
nen
of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a
nd
buying in the pumps.
ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo
w, says Paul Etchells,
UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob
otised Waterjet
Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, 
the
Swiss-Swedish engineering group.
'But the initial problems have been res
olved and since the early 1980s,
we've had highly reliable systems being use
d in high-volume production,' he
says.
The introduction of abrasives has bee
n the main driving force for the
industrial development of waterjet cutting.
 A powdered abrasive known as
garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin
y mixing chamber before the
water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as 
a carrying agent for the
abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a
nd does the cutting.
This process has coincided with the growing use by auto
motive and aerospace
companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast
ics and composites to
aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more
 accurate cutting than
traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti
ng with a hot wire.
At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c
utters were used on
titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre
viously have been
produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing,
 hand cutting and
filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a
nd reduced the
filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim
e taken to
polish one part produced by sawing.
Aerospace companies have also
 found that by using waterjets, they can cut
composite materials without del
aminating the edges. Delamination is an
anathema as it can weaken the whole 
piece: 'It would be like having a piece
of cardboard with a wet edge,' says 
Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing
director.
The second important development h
as been the tie-ups between robotics
suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti
ng systems, such as the two-year-old
ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to
 a sophisticated, computer-controlled
robot, a waterjet can move around and 
across a three-dimensional part such
as a car dashboard, cutting the outline
 and creating the holes for the
instruments.
Along with car carpets and head
liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards
are the most popular applicatio
ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive
industry.
The advantages of waterj
et cutting include its flexibility and easy
maintenance. It produces no dust
 or toxic fumes and the component is not
affected by heat distortion. There 
is no cutting tool to wear out, although
the nozzle has to be changed occasi
onally.
But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be 
reduced
by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf
ace.
Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho
ur,
the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells.
Also
, while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is
so 
thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting
applicati
on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is
under way
 in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet
and cont
aminated with bits of the component.
For thin metals - for example, steel up
 to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet
can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th
at, however, laserjets are much
slower and rarely used, while the shininess 
of metals such as copper, brass
and aluminium make it possible to cut only v
ery thin sheets with lasers.
There are occasional problems, too, with the co
ntinuation of the waterjet
after it has cut through the component. In three-
dimensional work,
situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t
he robot, but
cutting in water may provide the solution.
Nevertheless, water
jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list
after more than 20 yea
rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have
components produced by w
aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic
waterjet cutting machine
s for the tail section supports and other large
parts for the new 777 airlin
er.
In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi
ves
from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati
ng
it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big
Minnes
ota-based munitions manufacturer.
LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti
ng market through an agreement
with ASI last year to market the systems in E
urope. The Belgian company is
one of the world's biggest producers of machin
ery for cutting, punching and
bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting 
as complementary to its
laserjet cutters.
In September, it introduced the Aq
uarius range of machines, mainly for
cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma
rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe.
According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p
resident, Europe is a step behind
the US in the application of waterjet cutt
ing and the process could
represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year
s.
In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat
ed
with other parts of the production process. This is already happening -
A
SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after

they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate

measuring.
Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord
er from
Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts
,
cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is

the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece

of equipment.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of Ameri
ca.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ
es.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    TECH  Product
s & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18
 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 93 ==============================================
Transaction #:     93       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:32
Selec. Rec. #:     19

Boolean Indexes Used:

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   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT934-8386</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DKPCNACSFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9311
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed
ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide
 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
At the LVD machin
e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw
puzzle map of Eu
rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a
piece of blue fo
am rubber about half an inch thick.
A long way further east in Ukraine, auto
matic dismantling lines designed by
Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq
uipment group, will soon be in place
to begin dismantling more than 200,000 
tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition.
The link between these two events is w
ater. LVD is one of the most recent
entrants, while I-R was one of the pione
ers in waterjet cutting technology.
This process is in use by, or being cons
idered by, a wide range of
industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston
e and glass cutters. So
far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th
e biggest users of the
process.
As is also the case with most technologies i
nvolving water, the basics of
the process are simple. Water is filtered, the
n passed through a powerful
pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of
 a nozzle with a diameter
varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t
o 4,000bar.
The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet
ween Mach
two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo
ds, thin
wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if

abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet
c
utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems
i
n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry.
B
ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest
world
wide.
I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r
ival,
Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu
des
companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi
nen
of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a
nd
buying in the pumps.
ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo
w, says Paul Etchells,
UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob
otised Waterjet
Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, 
the
Swiss-Swedish engineering group.
'But the initial problems have been res
olved and since the early 1980s,
we've had highly reliable systems being use
d in high-volume production,' he
says.
The introduction of abrasives has bee
n the main driving force for the
industrial development of waterjet cutting.
 A powdered abrasive known as
garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin
y mixing chamber before the
water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as 
a carrying agent for the
abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a
nd does the cutting.
This process has coincided with the growing use by auto
motive and aerospace
companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast
ics and composites to
aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more
 accurate cutting than
traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti
ng with a hot wire.
At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c
utters were used on
titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre
viously have been
produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing,
 hand cutting and
filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a
nd reduced the
filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim
e taken to
polish one part produced by sawing.
Aerospace companies have also
 found that by using waterjets, they can cut
composite materials without del
aminating the edges. Delamination is an
anathema as it can weaken the whole 
piece: 'It would be like having a piece
of cardboard with a wet edge,' says 
Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing
director.
The second important development h
as been the tie-ups between robotics
suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti
ng systems, such as the two-year-old
ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to
 a sophisticated, computer-controlled
robot, a waterjet can move around and 
across a three-dimensional part such
as a car dashboard, cutting the outline
 and creating the holes for the
instruments.
Along with car carpets and head
liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards
are the most popular applicatio
ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive
industry.
The advantages of waterj
et cutting include its flexibility and easy
maintenance. It produces no dust
 or toxic fumes and the component is not
affected by heat distortion. There 
is no cutting tool to wear out, although
the nozzle has to be changed occasi
onally.
But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be 
reduced
by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf
ace.
Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho
ur,
the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells.
Also
, while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is
so 
thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting
applicati
on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is
under way
 in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet
and cont
aminated with bits of the component.
For thin metals - for example, steel up
 to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet
can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th
at, however, laserjets are much
slower and rarely used, while the shininess 
of metals such as copper, brass
and aluminium make it possible to cut only v
ery thin sheets with lasers.
There are occasional problems, too, with the co
ntinuation of the waterjet
after it has cut through the component. In three-
dimensional work,
situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t
he robot, but
cutting in water may provide the solution.
Nevertheless, water
jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list
after more than 20 yea
rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have
components produced by w
aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic
waterjet cutting machine
s for the tail section supports and other large
parts for the new 777 airlin
er.
In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi
ves
from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati
ng
it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big
Minnes
ota-based munitions manufacturer.
LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti
ng market through an agreement
with ASI last year to market the systems in E
urope. The Belgian company is
one of the world's biggest producers of machin
ery for cutting, punching and
bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting 
as complementary to its
laserjet cutters.
In September, it introduced the Aq
uarius range of machines, mainly for
cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma
rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe.
According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p
resident, Europe is a step behind
the US in the application of waterjet cutt
ing and the process could
represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year
s.
In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat
ed
with other parts of the production process. This is already happening -
A
SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after

they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate

measuring.
Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord
er from
Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts
,
cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is

the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece

of equipment.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of Ameri
ca.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ
es.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    TECH  Product
s & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18
 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 94 ==============================================
Transaction #:     94       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:34
Selec. Rec. #:     19

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT934-8386</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DKPCNACSFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9311
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed
ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide
 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
At the LVD machin
e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw
puzzle map of Eu
rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a
piece of blue fo
am rubber about half an inch thick.
A long way further east in Ukraine, auto
matic dismantling lines designed by
Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq
uipment group, will soon be in place
to begin dismantling more than 200,000 
tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition.
The link between these two events is w
ater. LVD is one of the most recent
entrants, while I-R was one of the pione
ers in waterjet cutting technology.
This process is in use by, or being cons
idered by, a wide range of
industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston
e and glass cutters. So
far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th
e biggest users of the
process.
As is also the case with most technologies i
nvolving water, the basics of
the process are simple. Water is filtered, the
n passed through a powerful
pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of
 a nozzle with a diameter
varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t
o 4,000bar.
The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet
ween Mach
two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo
ds, thin
wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if

abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet
c
utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems
i
n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry.
B
ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest
world
wide.
I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r
ival,
Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu
des
companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi
nen
of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a
nd
buying in the pumps.
ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo
w, says Paul Etchells,
UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob
otised Waterjet
Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, 
the
Swiss-Swedish engineering group.
'But the initial problems have been res
olved and since the early 1980s,
we've had highly reliable systems being use
d in high-volume production,' he
says.
The introduction of abrasives has bee
n the main driving force for the
industrial development of waterjet cutting.
 A powdered abrasive known as
garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin
y mixing chamber before the
water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as 
a carrying agent for the
abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a
nd does the cutting.
This process has coincided with the growing use by auto
motive and aerospace
companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast
ics and composites to
aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more
 accurate cutting than
traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti
ng with a hot wire.
At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c
utters were used on
titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre
viously have been
produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing,
 hand cutting and
filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a
nd reduced the
filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim
e taken to
polish one part produced by sawing.
Aerospace companies have also
 found that by using waterjets, they can cut
composite materials without del
aminating the edges. Delamination is an
anathema as it can weaken the whole 
piece: 'It would be like having a piece
of cardboard with a wet edge,' says 
Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing
director.
The second important development h
as been the tie-ups between robotics
suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti
ng systems, such as the two-year-old
ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to
 a sophisticated, computer-controlled
robot, a waterjet can move around and 
across a three-dimensional part such
as a car dashboard, cutting the outline
 and creating the holes for the
instruments.
Along with car carpets and head
liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards
are the most popular applicatio
ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive
industry.
The advantages of waterj
et cutting include its flexibility and easy
maintenance. It produces no dust
 or toxic fumes and the component is not
affected by heat distortion. There 
is no cutting tool to wear out, although
the nozzle has to be changed occasi
onally.
But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be 
reduced
by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf
ace.
Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho
ur,
the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells.
Also
, while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is
so 
thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting
applicati
on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is
under way
 in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet
and cont
aminated with bits of the component.
For thin metals - for example, steel up
 to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet
can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th
at, however, laserjets are much
slower and rarely used, while the shininess 
of metals such as copper, brass
and aluminium make it possible to cut only v
ery thin sheets with lasers.
There are occasional problems, too, with the co
ntinuation of the waterjet
after it has cut through the component. In three-
dimensional work,
situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t
he robot, but
cutting in water may provide the solution.
Nevertheless, water
jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list
after more than 20 yea
rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have
components produced by w
aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic
waterjet cutting machine
s for the tail section supports and other large
parts for the new 777 airlin
er.
In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi
ves
from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati
ng
it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big
Minnes
ota-based munitions manufacturer.
LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti
ng market through an agreement
with ASI last year to market the systems in E
urope. The Belgian company is
one of the world's biggest producers of machin
ery for cutting, punching and
bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting 
as complementary to its
laserjet cutters.
In September, it introduced the Aq
uarius range of machines, mainly for
cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma
rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe.
According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p
resident, Europe is a step behind
the US in the application of waterjet cutt
ing and the process could
represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year
s.
In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat
ed
with other parts of the production process. This is already happening -
A
SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after

they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate

measuring.
Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord
er from
Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts
,
cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is

the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece

of equipment.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of Ameri
ca.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ
es.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    TECH  Product
s & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18
 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 95 ==============================================
Transaction #:     95       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-8115</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CENCNAF8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 92 / Technology: Shifting to high gear - Co
mputer-aided design is finding new roles in countless productions across the
 world </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Cadcam may 
no longer be in its infancy, but after the heady growth rates of
the early 1
980s the market for computer-aided design and manufacturing
equipment and so
ftware still looks a long way short of reaching maturity.
While other sector
s of manufacturing technology languish in recession, the
world Cadcam market
 grew more than 10 per cent last year to Dollars 16bn,
according to Dataques
t, and will reach nearly Dollars 25bn (Pounds 14bn) in
1995 - a compound ann
ual growth rate of 12 per cent since 1990.
The importance of Cadcam, and in 
particular 3D solid modelling, to
concurrent engineering - the team approach
 to cutting product development
times and improving quality - makes it virtu
ally a necessity in mechanical
engineering.
But other applications of Cadcam
 are now expanding faster, even though huge
untapped opportunities remain in
 the dominant mechanical sector. Meanwhile,
the industry is adjusting to muc
h higher predicted growth rates for software
than for the hardware that it r
uns on, and forming partnerships with
industrial users to understand their n
eeds better.
All these trends are illustrated in current strategy at Matra D
atavision,
the biggest European-owned Cadcam supplier. And Michel Neuve Egli
se,
chairman and chief executive, is hoping for annual growth of 20-25 per c
ent
over the next few years at the Paris-based subsidiary of Matra.
Achievin
g that, and pushing Matra Datavision up the US-dominated league
table of big
 players in the industry, will depend on recent initiatives at
the 13-year-o
ld company, whose success has been built on its Euclid-IS
mechanical Cadcam 
software which produced the Renault Espace (right).
As Cadcam hardware becom
es a commodity item, companies such as Matra are
trying to boost the share o
f revenues represented by software. The in-phrase
at Matra, therefore, is wh
at Victor Waknine, president and chief operating
officer, calls the 'softwar
e factory' approach to help penetrate new markets
and develop existing ones.

A key element is a new generation of Case (computer-aided software
engineer
ing) tools designed to build the company's own factory of
applications softw
are, help Euclid users change their applications, and
provide new applicatio
n solutions for independent software houses. The
product, for complex assemb
ly design, will be available next year.
A second initiative is a new entry-l
evel solid-modelling system,
Prelude/Solids, designed to attract companies c
urrently using 2D or
3D-wireframe-based systems - surface modelling which is
 like stretching
clingfilm across a wireframe but does not completely define
 an object in 3D
as occurs with solid modelling. The ability, for example, t
o compute masses
and moments of inertia makes solid modelling a powerful too
l for reducing
product development times.
Matra is launching Prelude in the 
US - a good testing ground, says Waknine,
for a mass-market product. It is d
esigned to attack low-cost software such
as AutoCAD, the Autodesk flagship p
roduct.
But Matra also has its eye on the emerging market for 'conceptual
en
gineering,' where the very earliest design sketches can be captured on
compu
ter, thus saving more time in the product development process by
eliminating
 the 'back-of-an envelope' stage. Prelude's compatibility with
Euclid-IS is 
an important element here, Waknine believes.
Prelude is being launched in th
e US to correct Matra Datavision's weakness
in a market where it sees consid
erable growth for 3D solid modelling.
The US and Asia are the main areas of 
planned expansion for the company,
although other markets have potential. Th
e UK looks encouraging, with
turnover up 40 per cent last year to Pounds 1.4
m, and expected to rise to
Pounds 2.4m in 1992. Currently 80 per cent of Mat
ra's installed base is in
Europe, 15 per cent in North America and 5 per cen
t in Asia, but Waknine
hopes to increase Asian and North American shares to 
20 per cent each by
1995.
According to Matra, European manufacturers have re
alised the benefits of 3D
solid modelling earlier than their counterparts in
 the US and Japan, because
of the need for increased productivity in manufac
turing, and education that
has made possible a better grasp of the mathemati
cal principles.
But US and Japanese demand has been strong in the past two y
ears, says
Waknine, and solid modelling is becoming mandatory in Japan. Acco
rdingly,
Matra is rapidly expanding its US distribution network, and last ye
ar it
signed an agreement for NEC to distribute Euclid-IS in Japan.
Elsewher
e in Asia, the company is negotiating two joint ventures, one in
China and a
nother with a big industrial concern outside China. It has begun
co-operatin
g with the Chinese space agency, and sees enormous potential even
if it can 
convert only a small percentage of 20,000 engineers to Euclid.
Other regions
 are likely to require more patience, says Waknine. In the
former Soviet Uni
on, he says, large companies have realised the potential of
solid modelling 
- helped by the unofficial import of pirated western
software - but are rest
ricted by financial difficulties.
Matra is exploring barter deals to enable 
it to sell to the former Soviet
Union, and earlier this year took an indirec
t stake in Mazintergixi, a joint
venture distribution company.
According to 
Dataquest figures, Matra is the world's eighth largest supplier
of software 
in the mechanical Cadcam market for workstations, the most
important hardwar
e 'platform,' but Neuve Eglise has ambitions to push the
company into the to
p five.
That could be tough, according to Petra Gartzen, Dataquest analyst. 
'Matra
have a very good product and are doing the right things, but the mech
anical
Cadcam market is not showing the same growth rates as other sectors b
ecause
of conditions in manufacturing. That makes it very difficult for any 
company
to increase its market share.'
However, Matra's greater emphasis on 
software for the mechanical market,
which is forecast to grow twice as fast 
as the hardware, should help.
Matra is also expanding into the faster-growin
g architectural, engineering
and construction (AEC) sector of Cadcam through
 a system developed by
Framatome, the French power plant builder. Unlike man
y AEC systems, says
Gartzen, the Framatome system is targeted towards plant 
design, where there
are big opportunities in the European Community because 
of environmental
legislation.
 ---------------------------------------------
--------------------------
WORDLWIDE CADCAM MARKET
 ------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
                     1990   
91     92     93     94     95     Compound
Cadcam (dollars bn)             
                                growth
 ------------------------------------
-----------------------------------
All applications
all platforms        14
.36  15.79  17.95  20.03  22.36  24.96   12%
Hardware              7.96   8.
50   9.63  10.45  11.41  12.39    9%
Software              4.07   7.42   5.4
4   6.35   7.33   8.49   16%
Services              2.33   2.57   2.88   3.23
   3.62   4.08   12%
 ------------------------------------------------------
-----------------
Source: Dataquest
 ---------------------------------------
--------------------------------
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 96 ==============================================
Transaction #:     96       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-2788</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CLKB5AHSFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9212
10
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  10 DEC 92 / Survey of Software at Work - Winter 19
92 (6): Rapid route to creativity - Claire Gooding looks at the origins of c
omputer aided design and how the latest systems are cutting the cost of tech
nical design for industry / Computer aided design </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By
 CLAIRE GOODING </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
MOST computer users have PCs, workstations,
 or terminals: users of computer
aided design (CAD) systems have 'seats.' Wh
ile the computer world has a
language all its own, the CAD world has a diale
ct more baffling than most
(see buzzwords, below).
Largely used by engineers
, architects and designers, the measurement of CAD
systems in seats goes bac
k to the time when they were extremely expensive
and demanded the purchase o
f dedicated hardware that would be unlikely to
perform any other task.
As th
e term implies, a 'seat' could be shared between several occupants,
highly-q
ualified people who would have to acquire another skill, that of
using a com
puter.
In the early 1980s, CAD was 'standalone.' The hardware and software w
ere
'dedicated,' and their users were in a world of their own. Presenting a

picture on a screen was a heavy task for a computer: manipulating and
rotati
ng it involved the constant high-speed re-calculation of co-ordinates.
In th
e past this was mainframe work, or at least involved a dedicated
minicompute
r. Suppliers such as Prime, ICL, with Perq systems and Apollo,
with Domain s
ystems dominated a small and specialist market.
Now there is a much wider ma
rketplace, reflected by its own thriving trade
press (see references, page 1
0) and a trade show now in its ninth year -
CADCAM 93, at Birmingham NEC fro
m March 9th-11th, 1993, has already
attracted more than 200 exhibitors. It i
ncludes software, hardware,
services, and peripherals - another specialised 
CAD area because plotters
for A1-size paper are unlikely to be used with any
 other application.
The dominant names are now Autodesk, which has its own '
expo' at the show,
and Sun Microsystems, the supplier of workstations, with 
its own 'village.'
Cambashi, a Cambridge consultancy which specialises in co
mputer-aided
technologies and market research, identifies Autodesk, EDS, Hew
lett Packard,
IBM and Intergraph among the leading vendors (see table, page 
10). The
market is still concentrated in the hands of a handful of companies
, in
terms of products purchased.
Cambashi also identifies a more complex ma
rketplace, where middle-men and
value-added resellers (VARs) play a much lar
ger part in sales. It estimates
that in 1991, end-users in the UK spent Poun
ds 445m on CAD systems; about
half on hardware, and the remainder split more
 or less equally between
software and services. This is some advance on the 
mid-eighties, when an
internal IBM report on CAD marked the UK behind Sweden
 in the number of CAD
installations.
With falling hardware prices, CAD has b
een able to reach a larger
marketplace. Large users such as Ove Arup, the en
gineering consultancy which
developed its own CAD software at one time, have
 seen the price plummet,
from around Pounds 80,000 to Pounds 6,000 per seat,
 in a few years.
Rising maintenance charges on old kit fuels the spend on ne
w, more powerful
and essentially cheaper systems.
Jenny Jacobsberg, consulta
nt at Cambashi, makes a distinction in her
measurements of CAD usage between
 penetration, (the number of companies
buying CAD units), and 'saturation', 
the number of skilled people within the
company using the system.
By the end
 of 1991, there were 67,000 installations, (compared to 35,500
four years ag
o), with a potential 300,000 end-users: a saturation of 22.3
per cent. Appli
cations using only two dimensional (2D) representation are
stagnating, those
 using 3D are on the increase.
'The UK still has long way to go when it come
s to spreading the usage inside
the company' she says. 'To get to the stage 
where every user has a
workstation dedicated to them alone, there will have 
to be a significant
change of culture.'
It is still rare to find large-scale
 projects like Ove Arup's Glaxo campus,
relying entirely on CAD, with one wo
rkstation per worker.
The advent of the PC changed people's expectations: th
ey wanted faster,
smarter, easier-to-use systems. Many Macintosh and PC-base
d solutions have
enabled smaller companies to use CAD for the first time. Th
e edges have even
become blurred about what is - and isn't - CAD.
If it's fr
iendly and easy to use, it may not qualify as CAD, which tends to
be associa
ted with professional mysteries - 'anything that smacks of CAD
frightens peo
ple,' says Mick Pitt, managing director of a company called
Scimus whose Doo
dle product has been used in everything from lace design to
fire reports and
 graphics of car crashes in insurance claims.
'The actual skills needed for 
technical design are quite high and
time-consuming. We're trying to get peop
le to understand that they needn't
be frightened of making mistakes, they ca
n change and reproduce things at
will on the screen. Some people dispute tha
t Doodle is a CAD product at all,
but we see it as a link between CAD and de
sktop publishing, accessible to
everyone from seven years old upwards.'
Rath
er as the telephone, and more recently, the fax machine, gained in value
as 
more and more people adopted the technology, CAD systems start delivering
re
al value as more and more people use them. Users can swap dimensions,
drawin
gs, and volumes of information whose accuracy is vital to the job, via
excha
nge of floppy discs, through the standard IGES (Initial Graphics
Exchange Sp
ecification) transfer mechanism, or through EDM (electronic data
management)
.
This facility is so important that it has spawned a centre of expertise in

Leeds: CADETSI (CADCAM Data Exchange Technical Centre). Standards, an issue

that flickers and burns constantly throughout the computer industry, is
alr
eady a concern among CAD users.
'It depends on the company' says Jenny Jacob
sberg. ' The bigger the
organisation, and the more customers or suppliers th
ey deal with, the more
important standards will be. Another factor in the ex
change of information
within one company is a mixture of hardware platforms 
and software packages.
A smaller company which gone down the PC or IBM-speci
fic route might find it
less of an issue.'
In specific industries, such as t
he automative industry, the move towards
EDM has forced most suppliers down 
a standard route. Which 'standard'
product they acquire, IBM's Catia or Comp
utervision's CADDS product, will be
dictated by their customer. The whole in
dustry has moved forward through
collaboration and agreement. The Husat Rese
arch Institute (Human Sciences
and Advanced Technology) is involved in two s
uch projects: RACE (Research
and Development on Advanced Communications in E
urope) and CAR, (CAD/CAM in
the Automative Industry in RACE).
In the archite
cture market, AutoCAD has achieved such penetration that it is
spawning any 
number of independently produced add-ons and extensions. Yet,
says Mrs Jacob
sberg of Cambashi, 'there is no such thing as an industry
standard.'
There a
re however, favoured solutions in different vertical markets - 'there
is an 
increasing requirement for industry-specific solutions, so vendors
have iden
tified the opportunities and are coming up with tailored packages.'
Not surp
risingly, the computer industry itself has been among the first to
recognise
 and use the potential. Hewlett Packard, for instance, uses
Genrad's SYSHILO
 products in the development of its latest Integrated
Circuits, to model, si
mulate and verify these complex components before
actual implementation.
Use
rs are beginning to realise that computer aided design is just the tip of
th
e iceberg. Connected with other technologies - including quality control,
ro
botics, and recently, with desktop publishing, (see case study on United
Gla
ss, page 16) - CAD can remove many of the overheads (but not the skills)
of 
creativity.
What users think about their CAD systems: see back page.
REFEREN
CES:
CADD Magazine, tel 071 404 0564.
CADCAM Magazine, tel 071 251 6222.
CAD
CAM 93 NEC March 9-11th 1993, contact Lisa Parrett, tel 071 404 4844.
Cambas
hi reports: Marketing Managers Handbook 1991: Analysis of UK CADCAM
market. 
Also CIME/CIE vertical markets in Europe, available from Cambashi,
tel 0223 
460439.
Scimus, London, tel 081 546 9670.
GenRad, tel 0329 822240.
Husat, te
l 0509 611088.
CADETSI, Leeds, tel 0532 305005.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial T
imes </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VIII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 97 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-140</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQACVFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
): Japanese still set the pace - The importance of the human element in the 
production process permeates Japanese methods. Now Western companies are beg
inning to appreciate that there is a limit to what the computer can do to he
lp the manufacturers </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ALAN CANE </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
M
ANUFACTURING methods have changed profoundly in the US and Europe over the
p
ast few years. The adoption of total quality control and just-in-time
techni
ques have proven necessary to compete with Japanese manufacturers,
whose fun
damentally different approach has set standards of efficiency and
quality We
stern manufacturers are still striving to emulate.
A comparative study of mo
tor car manufacture in the US and Japan published
recently by the Massachuse
tts Institute of Technology makes the point
powerfully. General Motors' plan
t in Framingham in the US takes 31 hours to
assemble a car. There are 135 de
fects in every 100 cars and a two week
inventory of parts.
Toyota's Takaoka 
plant in Japan produces a car every 16 hours with on 45
faults per 100 cars.
 Its inventory is sufficient to sustain production for a
mere two hours.
The
 West's struggle to compete with Japan's growing manufacturing
superiority h
as been marked by false starts and expensive excursions up
technological bli
nd alleys.
Western companies failed initially to understand the nature of th
e
difference in manufacturing philosophies, believing that low labour costs

and heavy use of technology were the answer.
In fact, with the appreciation 
of the yen, Japan's labour costs are not all
that different from its Western
 competitors. Japanese manufacturers
certainly use computers but sparingly, 
preferring to design their products
to suit them for manufacture, rather tha
n the other way about.
They build quality into their products rather than in
spect later for faults.
Responsibility for quality control is entrusted to t
he production worker
rather than the Western-style quality control departmen
t.
Increasingly, the trend is to parallelism or concurrent engineering, wher
e
customer requirements, product design, manufacturing technology and cost
a
ccountancy proceed in parallel and information is continuously fed back to
m
odify the manufacturing processes.
These ideas of design for manufacture and
 respect for the contribution
individuals can make to manufacturing quality 
permeate Japanese
manufacturing methods.
They are now diffusing to the West 
and are the essential backcloth against
which the growing use of computers i
n manufacturing must be seen.
Computer systems for manufacturers are supplie
d by computer makers rather
than traditional machine tool companies.
Hardwar
e comes from companies such as IBM, ICL, Digital Equipment, Hewlett
Packard,
 and Bull Software is supplied by companies such as Istel
Automation, Kewill
 Systems and Prime Computers among a host of others. All
agree that with mos
t Western economies exhibiting weakness, if not actual
recession, business i
s tough: 'but not as bad as it's made out to be'
according to Mr Peter Willi
s of IBM.
Mr Graham McKenzie, technical unit manager for Digital Equipment i
n the UK
says that buyers are focusing on the business benefits of installin
g
computer systems.
The industry is not helped by the continuing difficulty 
the accountancy
profession has found in cost justifying investment in modern
 computer
equipment.
A detailed study of the US valve industry by Dr Peter W
eill called Do
Computers Pay Off?, (ICIT Press, 1990) concluded that the rel
ationship
between computer investment and manufacturing was circular: 'It wa
s not
possible to identify the unique contribution of any particular year of
 IT
investment. It is not clear that this can ever be achieved statistically
'.
The advent of the microprocessor, by making available virtually unlimited

computer power at low cost, has given manufacturers a wide range of
powerfu
l, computer-based technologies which can be deployed on the factory
floor as
 well as the back office.
There is computer aided design (Cad), pioneered by
 aerospace and computer
manufacturers, which provides not only an electronic
 drawing board, but also
product design information.
Computer aided engineer
ing (CAE) automates the design process making it
possible to test the validi
ty of a design before moving to the prototype
stage.
Computer aided manufact
uring (Cam) involves a range of intelligent
shop-floor machinery including r
obots, numerically controlled machine tools,
flexible manufacturing centres 
and automated handling systems.
Much of this is taken for granted. Mr Brian 
Small, managing director of
Ingersoll Engineers, a UK manufacturing consulta
ncy, says that manufacturing
computers today look like and are bought like c
onventional machine tools.
Convenience and simplicity of purchase does not g
uarantee success in
operation however and there are serious dangers in assum
ing that
manufacturing problems yield to an injection of technology.
The Str
athclyde Institute, an independent manufacturing consultancy warns in
a rece
nt report: 'Many people equate improved competitiveness in manufacture
with 
the application of state-of-the-art technology such as powerful
computer sys
tems, MRP, Cad and robotics. While it may be advantageous or
necessary for a
 company to apply these and other enabling technologies in
pursuit of excell
ence, this should only be as part of an overall company
strategy.'*
'If such
 technologies are applied to a company without cognisance of the
needs or ef
fects on other areas, at present or in the future, then it may be
difficult 
if not impossible to integrate the patchwork of systems across the
company.'

Integration is the important word in manufacturing automation. The goal for

forward looking companies is computer integrated manufacture (Cim), an
over
used piece of jargon with many definitions.
One comprehensive definition fro
m the Strathclyde Institute is: 'an amalgam
of computer aided engineering an
d drafting, computer aided manufacturing,
flexible manufacturing systems, to
oling and quality support systems,
in-process gauging and automated final in
spection, automated storage and
materials handling, and operations control w
ithin a business information
system.'
Mr Willis of IBM warns, however, that 
too often the 'i' in Cim stands for
interconnection rather than integration.
 There has to be, he explains, an
underlying Cim architecture: 'To complete 
a 1,000-piece jigsaw, you have to
have all the pieces and a picture on the b
ox.' There is probably not a
single true Cim operation anywhere in the world
.
Cell manufacture is emerging as one of the biggest steps towards integrate
d
manufacture. A survey by Ingersoll Engineers** suggests that over half of

the UK's engineering companies have implemented cell manufacture in some
par
t of their business.
Cells are self-contained manufacturing units with the m
achines, controls,
people and support needed to make a finished product comp
lete with payment
schemes, incentives, performance measurements and accounta
bility.
'Well over 90 per cent of manufacturers who have implemented cells h
ave seen
an improvement in performance and 40 per cent describe the improvem
ent as
significant. Fewer than 2 per cent have abandoned the approach,' says

Ingersoll.
Computer technology has a part to play in the flow of informatio
n necessary
to support and underpin these developments.
Successful manufactu
rers in the 1990s, however, will emphasise the human
dimension: 'What do you
 need to do the job?' will replace the order 'Look
after that machine]'
*Com
puter Integrated Manufacture for the Engineering Industry, The
Strathclyde I
nstitute 1990, Financial Times Business Information, 071-799
2002.
**Competi
tive Manufacturing - the quiet revolution, Ingersoll Engineers,
1990, 0926 4
27088.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I Illustra
tion (Omitted). Photograph (Omitted). Photograph Humans still have a part to
 play in computerised manufacturing: Nissan's Murayama plant in Japan (left)
 and Jaguar's Browns Lane facility in Coventry (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 98 ==============================================
Transaction #:     98       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-3396</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCPCCAF7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac
ture (7): A world built on silicon - Paul Taylor keeps abreast of the bewild
ering changes in technology </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PAUL TAYLOR </BYLINE>

<TEXT>
OVER the past decade the electronics revolution has reached almost a
ll
industries enabling the development of a wide range of new consumer and
b
usiness products and services.
The personal computer, fax machines, satellit
e television, mobile telephony,
medical scanners, compact-disc players, anti
-lock brakes and engine
management systems for cars are among the many produ
cts which have been made
possible by recent advances in semiconductor techno
logy.
Even more sophisticated applications will soon emerge, including perso
nal
communicators, video-telephones, crash avoidance systems and car navigat
ion
aids. The pace of change is accelerating and silicon technology will
con
tinue to be the engine of change and innovation.
Higher-speed devices will b
e integrated and packed closer, in smaller, more
complex and reliable packag
es which cost less. But to turn these basic
building blocks into useful prod
ucts requires very expensive specialist
machinery, expert knowledge and the 
application of the latest computerised
techniques.
Many large companies whos
e core business is not primarily electronics will
lack state-of-the-art equi
pment and expertise to take advantage of these
changes.
Others will focus on
 design and marketing rather than manufacture. In either
case the opportunit
ies for the specialist contract electronics manufacturer
are substantial.
Pe
rhaps more than any other single factor the growth of contract electronics
m
anufacturing has been fuelled by advances in technology - and by the switch

to SMT (surface mount technology) in particular.
From the late 1950s, when t
ransistors and printed circuit boards (PCBs)
replaced valves, until the mid-
1980s almost all PCBs were assembled using
conventional PIH/PTH (pin-in-hole
 or plated-through-hole) technology.
Individual components are inserted eith
er by hand or automatically into
plated holes in the circuit board and molte
n solder is then forced up
through the hole using a 'wave' solder machine. W
hen the solder dries it
attaches each component to the circuitry on the boar
d.
However, since the mid 1980s, SMT has become increasingly popular. In SMT

solder paste - a putty-like mixture of minute solder balls mixed with flux 
-
is screen printed on to circuit terminals or pads on the circuit board. Th
e
ICs (integrated circuits) and other miniature components are placed, or
'o
nsetted', on to the solder paste using highly accurate automatic placement
e
quipment. The solder paste is then melted or 'reflowed' which creates the
jo
int between the component and the circuit board.
SMT has some significant ad
vantages over the traditional method. These
include smaller size, increased 
automation, lower production costs, better
performance and higher reliabilit
y. However there are also some
disadvantages.
In particular, SMT 'pick and p
lace' equipment must be very accurate,
requires skilled programming and is c
ostly. A typical automated high volume
SMT line costs around Pounds 1m, a si
gnificant barrier to entry in the
contract manufacturing business and an inc
entive for OEMs to subcontract
their electronics manufacturing.
Mr Derek Duf
fett, director of the Association of Contract electronics
Manufacturers (ACe
M), recently noted that the advent of SMT had raised the
investment level ne
eded to enter the business and was one of the major
reasons for the trend to
wards contract electronics manufacturing.
According to figures from Motorola
, the US electronics group, two years ago
70 per cent of the world consumpti
on of integrated circuits was for PTH
components. About 20 per cent was of S
MT components with the remaining 10
per cent shared by other emerging techno
logies.
Reflecting the fact that contract electronics manufacturers tend to 
be at
the leading edge of technology, many in the UK already report that SMT

output has overtaken traditional PTH, although a lot of boards are hybrids 
-
combining both technologies.
The switch to SMT has often been overstated, 
but most industry participants
believe that by 1995 about half of all compon
ents sold will be of the SMT
variety, and that by the end of the decade SMT 
will have emerged as the
clearly dominant technology.
Nevertheless by then o
ther new technologies which have been in the
development stage for many year
s will have also reached the market. They are
needed because the performance
 and density requirements of electronics
systems will begin to exceed the ca
pabilities of discrete chip packaging,
like SMT. To overcome this will requi
re new 'interconnection techniques'.
The latest new technique, which is alre
ady being used in the electronics
industry in Japan, the US and occasionally
 in the UK, is called TAB (tape
automated bonding). In this method a lead fr
ame is attached to 'bumps' on
the edge of the silicon chip in a process know
n as 'inner lead bonding'.
The chip and its leads are then sealed or encapsu
lated in a glue-like
substance called 'glob-top' and mounted on a reel, simi
lar to a 35mm camera
film. These tiny devices can also be placed on to littl
e trays called 'slide
carriers'. The components are then attached to a circu
it board using
thermo-sonic means or conventional reflow soldering.
Another 
packaging method called COB (chip on board) is very similar to TAB
but no le
ad frame is used. Instead the tiny silicon chip is placed directly
on to the
 circuit board or 'substrate' and then attached using a special
'die attach'
 glue. Individual wires are then bonded to terminals on the chip
and connect
ed to the pads on the substrate. The whole assembly is then
encapsulated in 
glob-top.
Both TAB and COB provide greatly improved electrical performance t
han
earlier technologies and allow increased component packing densities on 
the
board - leading either to smaller boards or greater functionality. By th
e
end of the decade they are expected to account for up to one fifth of all

component sales.
The latest packaging technology is called MCM (multi chip m
odule). An MCM is
made up of several bare silicon chips mounted on the subst
rate. Then, using
COB techniques, the chips or 'die' are connected to circui
try much smaller
and more carefully routed than those on PCBs. These MCMs pr
ovide much higher
performance than the same chips mounted conventionally on 
a circuit board.
In addition to these changing methods of assembly, the prin
ted circuit board
itself is also changing. Already TFT (thick-film technolog
y), flexible
circuits and three-dimensional substrates have emerged as means
 to further
increase component density.
Using these new technologies require
s even more complex factory
infrastructure and sophisticated handling techni
ques. Optical recognition
and correction systems on the machines which place
 the components become
more necessary as the space between leads (the pitch)
 becomes narrower.
At the same time this places even more stringent demands 
on manufacturers'
processes and quality improvement programmes such as zero 
defect and
statistical process control (SPC), both advanced quality manufact
uring
techniques increasingly required by customers. This in turn means most

manufacturers invest very heavily in sophisticated automatic testing
equipm
ent.
In order to achieve the greatest efficiency and flexibility with their

equipment many contract manufacturers have installed electronic data
exchang
e (EDI) and computer management systems which often tie into those of
their 
customers and suppliers.
Meanwhile, in order to keep up with the advances in
 silicon technology
manufacturers must update and replace their equipment fr
equently. This means
there is often little time to recover capital costs and
 considerable
pressure to keep the machinery working 24 hours a day. But alt
hough speed is
an important factor in choosing equipment, manufacturers also
 stress the
need for reliability, capability and flexibility.
Finally, altho
ugh electronics generally has a good environmental record,
electronics manuf
acturers, including those in the contract industry, are
having to focus on e
nvironmental issues. For example the use of
chloro-fluorocarbons (CFCs) in t
he cleaning stage of SMT board assembly is
being phased out.
TERMINOLOGY
ASI
C: Application Specific Integrated Circuit
COB: Chip on Board
DIP: Dual in L
ine Package
IC: Integrated Circuit
MCM: Multi Chip Module
PCB: Printed Circu
it Board
PIH/PTH: Pin-in-Hole/Plated-Through-Hole
QFP: Quad Flat Pack
SMT: S
urface Mount Technology
SOIC: Small Outline Integrated Circuit
TAB: Tape Aut
omated Bonding
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Ind
ustries:-
</XX>
<IN>P36   Electronic and Other Electric Equipment.
</IN>
<XX
>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Technology.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<P
UB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 36 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 99 ==============================================
Transaction #:     99       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-13379</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGNBPAC4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
714
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 JUL 92 / Survey of World Automotive Components
 (1): Going gets even tougher - As car and truck makers seek ways to shore u
p their sagging profitability, the components industry is experiencing painf
ul shock waves / Assessment of the prospects for manufacturers facing up to 
an era of restructuring </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By KEVIN DONE </BYLINE>
<TEX
T>
THE competitive screw is being tightened remorselessly on the world's
aut
omotive components suppliers, as car and truck makers seek urgently for
ways
 to shore up their sagging profitability.
With bought-in components usually 
accounting for at least 50 per cent of the
costs of a car - Ford purchases a
lone totalled nearly Dollars 53bn in 1990 -
it is little coincidence that th
e vehicle assemblers look first to squeeze
their suppliers, when the going g
ets tough.
The resulting shock waves that pass through the automotive compon
ents
industry are being felt most painfully by the army of suppliers to Gene
ral
Motors, the world's largest vehicle maker, who are still trying to come 
to
terms with the latest convulsions in Detroit, as GM seeks to staunch its

record losses. GM is looking to global components sourcing as one of its
mai
n routes to short-term financial recovery.
Ominously for suppliers Mr Robert
 Stempel, GM's hard-pressed chairman,
warned recently that the group would '
use the global purchasing power of GM
to reduce material costs and accelerat
e the return of our North American
operations to profitability. We need to l
everage the worldwide volume of GM
to buy our material and components at bes
t prices.'
GM, the wounded elephant of the world auto industry, which last y
ear
suffered a massive Dollars 4.5bn deficit, the largest annual loss ever
r
ecorded by a US company, is finally being forced to take radical actions to

put its house in order.
Mr Stempel says GM is 'aggressively pursuing' five k
ey business strategies
to try to bring its sprawling North American auto ope
rations back into
profit. These include:
instituting global sourcing,
accele
rating the implementation of lean production,
significantly reducing the num
ber of GM vehicle platforms (the basic
underbodies that spawn a range of car
s) with greater use of common
components between vehicle lines,
cutting back
 North American manufacturing capacity, and
putting into effect an aggressiv
e new product programme.
Some of these strategies will take time to show thr
ough in the profit and
loss account, but the reduction of the purchasing bil
l can bear immediate
fruit.
In recent weeks GM has established a worldwide p
urchasing organisation,
headed by one of the key executives from its success
ful European operations,
Mr Ignacio Lopez de Arriortua. Mr Lopez, GM vice-pr
esident in charge of
worldwide purchasing with effect from May 1, has also b
ecome a member of
both of GM's North American and European strategy boards.

He has already stunned the US component industry by indicating, at a meeting

last month with top executives of 600 suppliers and 200 GM purchasing
manag
ers, that existing GM contracts are open to new bids. It is thought
that GM 
could be seeking more than the 7 per cent price cuts over three
years it had
 already begun to demand last year. The carrot Mr Lopez is
dangling is the o
pportunity to sell products to GM worldwide under long-term
contracts.
Accor
ding to Mr Stempel long-term contracts, some for the life of a new
model, wo
uld provide suppliers with the necessary volume to support their
capital inv
estments to reduce costs and improve quality. 'We're going to
concentrate on
 suppliers who meet our cost and quality standards.'
The pressures on GM are
 being felt by all vehicle makers, and the crucial
relationship between the 
vehicle producers and their suppliers is being
fundamentally transformed.
Th
e leading vehicle makers are creating global operations, forcing the
compone
nt producers to match this international expansion if they wish to
maintain 
their central supplier roles. At the same time they are off-setting
research
 and development spending by globally sourcing their component
requirements,
 increasingly in the form of built-up systems.
The vehicle makers are using 
larger purchasing volumes - sometimes in
alliances as in the case of Renault
 of France and Volvo of Sweden - in order
to push down supply costs.
Renault
 and Volvo announced late last month far-reaching steps to achieve a
genuine
 joint purchasing strategy 'to control costs by reducing purchasing
prices' 
with the aim of bringing the proportion of the two groups' total
purchases f
rom joint outside suppliers to 80 per cent from only 15 per cent
today.
The 
vehicle makers are also drastically cutting the number of their
suppliers to
 simplify their purchasing relationships and to delegate more
responsibiliti
es to their main so-called first tier suppliers.
Ford has reduced its worldw
ide supplier base by more than half from 1980
levels and intends to reduce i
t by an additional third by 1995. Ford of
Europe has cut the number of its s
uppliers by 15 per cent to 900 since 1988
and plans to shrink the total to 6
00 by 1995.
In response, the component manufacturers are being forced into a
n era of
drastic restructuring. The market leaders are seeking to establish 
a
presence in all the principal vehicle- producing regions of the world with

global representation in terms of production plants.
According to Mr Noel G
outard, chairman and chief executive of Valeo, the
leading French auto compo
nents maker, 'We must migrate with our European
clients eastwards to countri
es such as Russia and China, and we must
accompany the Japanese in their inc
ursion into the west, Europe and the US,
as well as build up our presence in
 Japan.'
The component makers are having to concentrate their R & D resource
s to
establish a competitive edge in principal technologies, while also gain
ing
the necessary scale of production volumes to be able to compete on price
 and
to ensure financial survival.
It is a high risk business. 'Our fate as 
components and systems suppliers
depends on the capacity to survive of each 
of our customers. In the
merciless war being waged in the automotive industr
y, there are winners and
losers,' says Mr Goutard. 'When the losers fall, th
eir suppliers frequently
stand to suffer heavy losses and the big investment
s made to serve the
customer are reduced to ashes.'
Leading component suppli
ers are taking on a considerably enhanced role as
the vehicle makers seek to
 delegate more component and systems research and
development work to the su
pply industry.
According to Mr Goutard, suppliers are 'no longer just produc
ers of parts
for vehicle manufacturers. We have become providers of services
 including
the development of products and systems with a high advanced rese
arch
content. We supply manufacturers with logistics and we finance their
in
ventory.' He maintains that the financial pressures on the supplier sector
h
ave greatly increased. 'Our customers make us finance inventory,
development
s, heavy R & D resources, tooling.'
Longer-term partnerships are emerging li
nking the vehicle producers with
favoured suppliers. Replacing the old adver
sarial relationships is not
always proving easy, however, and a wide credibi
lity gap often yawns between
industry rhetoric and practice. 'Purchasing pol
icies still vary enormously
from one manufacturer to another,' says Mr Gouta
rd.
The era of global expansion by the Japanese vehicle makers has set fresh

challenges raising the vehicle manufacturers' requirements in terms of
pric
e, quality and delivery.
The spread of Japanese vehicle production plants to
 North America and now to
Europe has also heralded an unprecedented level of
 direct involvement by the
vehicle producers in their suppliers' operations 
and businesses. The vehicle
makers take it for granted that they will share 
directly and immediately in
efficiency and productivity gains made by their 
suppliers. Increasingly they
are sending in their own advisory teams to work
 directly in suppliers'
plants.
The expansion of the Japanese presence is al
so creating a new wave of trade
conflicts, most importantly between the US a
nd Japan. This year Washington
and Detroit have joined forces to an unpreced
ented degree - highlighted by
the acrimonious visit by President Bush to Tok
yo earlier this year
accompanied by a business delegation including all the 
chairmen of the big
three US vehicle makers, General Motors, Ford and Chrysl
er.
The US initiative has brought fresh promises from the Japanese motor
ind
ustry to buy more US components both for use in Japan and in the Japanese
ca
r plants in North America, but the recent concessions will scarcely dent
the
 chronic US automotive trade deficit with Japan.
Within North America, the U
S administration is using customs regulations on
local content to try to for
ce Japanese vehicle makers to use more
locally-produced components - Honda's
 Canadian car production is the test
case - while a barrage of protective tr
ade legislation has been proposed in
Congress aimed at limiting Japanese mar
ket share and vehicle production in
the US and at cutting the trade deficit.

To date, Japanese component makers have followed the Japanese vehicle maker
s
more into North America than into Europe, but the established North Americ
an
and European component suppliers must capture new business from the incom
ing
Japanese transplant operations, if they are to succeed and supplement
so
metimes shrinking business with their traditional customers.
According to EL
M, the US automotive analysts, Japanese automakers produced
1.62m cars, 295,
000 light trucks, 321,000 transmissions and 735,000 engines
in the US and Ca
nada in 1991. 'Each of these figures is expected to increase
substantially o
ver the next five years. In 1991, 18 per cent of the cars
built in North Ame
rica were built in assembly plants owned or controlled by
Japanese automaker
s.'
ELM claims that the number of Japanese parts suppliers with plants in No
rth
America supplying the Japanese automakers' North American assembly plant
s
rose from 220 in 1990 to 276 in 1992. At the same time, the number of US
c
ompanies supplying these same Japanese automakers in North America rose
from
 309 in 1990 to 372 by early 1992.
Auto components companies face, too, a di
fficult challenge from changing
technologies and must move quickly to adapt 
to the shift to electronics, the
move to lighter weight materials, and the i
mpact of government regulations
requiring alternative fuel vehicles, and set
ting much tougher exhaust
emissions and safety standards. Almost all princip
al components are being
transformed through the introduction of electronics.

It is a daunting challenge for the component suppliers. According to Mr
Har
old Poling, chairman and chief executive of Ford, one of the most
pressing o
bjectives for the vehicle makers is to bring new products to the
market fast
er. 'We intend to reduce product development time by 25 per cent,
and our su
ppliers will play a key role in meeting this goal.
'We will need supplier pa
rtners who can commit early in the product
development cycle, work with us t
o better integrate design and manufacturing
requirements and be full-time, f
ull-service participants in the process of
bringing a car or truck to market
.'
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DO
C>

============= Transaction # 100 ==============================================
Transaction #:    100       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT944-17268</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EJIA1ADTFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>941
008
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 OCT 94 / Plastic heart of a new age man of man
y parts: We have the technology, we can rebuild the human body. Clive Cookso
n examines the latest advances in medical science </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By
 CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
My childhood science books used to portray t
he human body as a complicated
machine. This idea made me wonder why old peo
ple could not go to hospital to
have worn bits of their body replaced, in th
e same way as broken-down cars
were fixed in a garage. By the time I studied
 science at university in the
1970s, it was fashionable to look at the body 
as a whole biological system
rather than as a machine with separate parts.
N
ow, with the proportion of broken-down old people in the population
increasi
ng rapidly, the machine analogy is making more sense again. One
reason is th
at modern medicine can indeed provide a wide range of spare
parts. Primitive
 implants are becoming available to replace many human
organs: ears, eyes an
d nose; bones and joints; skin and ligaments; hearts
and kidneys.
These impl
ants are made from an astonishingly diverse range of materials:
hard metals 
and ceramics; soft plastics and foams; biological implants made
by 'tissue e
ngineering' from living cells; even electronic circuits designed
to replace 
failed nerves.
Anyone fitted with all the different spare parts available to
day would
indeed be a bionic man or woman, but with a creaking performance f
ar removed
from a sci-fi superhero. For no implant works as well as the orig
inal human
version.
Although the vast majority of implants have improved the
 lives of their
recipients, there are also failures - some of which leave pa
tients with even
more pain and disability than they had before. Indeed suing
 manufacturers on
behalf of 'victims' is a lucrative sideline for the Americ
an legal
profession.
'The problem is that all current devices for all parts 
of the body have a
limited lifetime,' says Professor William Bonfield, head 
of the
Interdisciplinary Research Centre in Biomedical Materials at Queen Ma
ry and
Westfield College, London. However, as scientists begin to understand
 which
chemical and physical properties of materials make them compatible wi
th the
human body, the outlook for more permanent implants is becoming brigh
ter.
'There has been a change of philosophy recently,' says Professor Chris

Wilkinson, a bio-engineering pioneer at Glasgow University. 'You used to try

to make your material as inert as possible - and you assumed your
engineeri
ng skills were better than the body's. Now we accept that the body
is more c
lever than us.'
Research today aims to produce implants that knit together w
ith the body's
own tissues. The key factor here, according to Professor Coli
n Humphreys, a
biomaterials specialist at Cambridge University, is not so mu
ch the chemical
nature of the implant as its micro-structure. The material m
ust have a shape
and texture that is compatible with living tissues on the s
cale of a few
nanometres - millionths of a millimetre. 'If it does not have 
the right
nano-structure, it will not work,' he says.
A good example of the 
new focus on micro-structure is Bonfield's project at
Queen Mary and Westfie
ld College 'to design from scratch an artificial bone
that will fit as well 
as possible with the real thing.' His team has come up
with a composite mate
rial containing hydroxy-apatite, the main mineral in
bone, blended with plas
tic.
Although hydroxy-apatite has been used before, Bonfield believes his
ma
terial is the first with the same nano-crystalline structure as natural
bone
. The result, when it is put next to osteoblasts (bone-producing cells),
is 
that tiny whiskers of bone grow cleanly into the implant. Clinical tests
of 
the material are showing that it can successfully repair the cheekbones
of p
eople whose faces have been disfigured by disease or accident. Thirty
patien
ts have already received the implants and 400 more are due to take
part in a
n extended clinical trial.
As with most researchers developing bio-materials
, Bonfield's goal is to
move into hip joints - the biggest sector of the imp
lant market. According
to Frost & Sullivan, a Californian market research co
mpany, US sales of hip
implants will be worth Dollars 810m this year.
Artifi
cial hips, introduced in the early 1960s, give new mobility to 500,000
peopl
e a year worldwide whose own joints have been ruined by arthritis and
other 
diseases. The natural hip is a ball-and-socket joint. Its replacement
involv
es cutting off the round head of the patient's thigh bone and
hammering in a
 metal spike to which a new ball is attached; at the same
time, the natural 
socket in the pelvis is cut out and replaced with an
artificial cup made fro
m metal lined with plastic. Both components of the
artificial joint are conv
entionally cemented in place with a glue called
polymethyl methacrylate.
Tot
al hip replacements have given good results in elderly patients, working
wel
l for 10 to 15 years. But they last less well in people under 70, who are
mo
re active and put more strain on their hips. Their new joints can fail
withi
n five years - usually because the bone shrinks away from the implant,
which
 then works loose.
'The result is that a steadily increasing proportion of o
ur patients are
undergoing 'revision' operations to replace artificial hips 
that have
already failed. Altogether about one-third of hip replacements are
 now
revisions,' says Richard Coombs, an orthopaedic surgeon at the Royal
Po
stgraduate Medical School, London. 'Our aim is the 30-year prosthesis, yet
t
oday our youngest patients have a five to seven year revision rate.'
Repeate
d surgery to replace failed artificial joints is not only distressing
and ri
sky for the patients but also expensive. The National Health Service
would s
ave an estimated Pounds 80m a year if it did not have to carry out
second an
d subsequent hip replacements.
Much research into orthopaedic implants is ai
med at giving the metal
components a porous surface coating - of hydroxy-apa
tite, for example -
which will encourage the patient's hip and thigh bones t
o bind naturally
with the implant. To stimulate the osteoblasts, the implant
 may also be
impregnated with natural chemicals called growth factors. This 
should give a
stronger bond than any synthetic glue.
Patience and dogged per
sistence are essential requirements for anyone
developing implant materials.
 Proving their safety and efficacy inevitably
takes many years. For example 
Bioglass, a ceramic bone substitute just
beginning to come into use in the U
S, was invented by Professor Larry Hench
at the University of Florida in 196
9.
Professor Per-Ingvar Branemark of Gothenburg University, Sweden, also sho
ws
the persistence required in bio-materials research. As a young medical
sc
ientist working on laboratory animals in the 1950s, he discovered that
titan
ium, a light metal much favoured by the aerospace industry, could
secure imp
lants firmly in living bone.
Branemark first used the system in 1965, to fix
 the most humble of implants
 -false teeth - with a titanium screw into a ma
n's jaw bone. Twenty-nine
years later, that patient's dentures are still fir
mly in place, and 300,000
other people have had dental implants secured with
 the same system.
The weight of clinical evidence did not convince the world
's dentists that
the Branemark system was safe and effective until the 1980s
. And only in the
mid 1990s are orthopaedic and plastic surgeons beginning t
o take titanium
screws seriously, as a way to fix artificial joints and othe
r body parts
permanently to patients.
'No one knows how and why the system w
orks so well,' Branemark says, 'but
empirical findings like this are importa
nt in medicine.' Apparently, the
titanium surface is covered by a thin oxide
 layer whose crystalline
structure happens to be completely compatible with 
bone; at the same time it
contains no chemicals capable of triggering an adv
erse reaction from the
body's immune system.
Implant development is not only
 slow but may also be legally and financially
hazardous. The most spectacula
r demonstration of the dangers is the Dollars
4bn fund proposed by Dow Corni
ng and other US manufacturers of silicone
breast implants, to settle litigat
ion by thousands of women who were
allegedly harmed by the devices. Although
 the companies maintain that there
is no scientific evidence to link their p
roducts to the plaintiffs'
auto-immune diseases and other medical problems, 
some implant recipients
have undoubtedly suffered great pain - and their law
yers have successfully
portrayed them as innocent victims of corporate greed
 and negligence.
The silicone saga has frightened several companies off the 
whole implants
business. 'We have pulled out of making materials for medical
 implants
altogether, and a number of other companies have stopped developin
g medical
implants in the US because, with the potential (legal) liability, 
it is not
worth the risk,' says Dr Ralph Cook, Dow Corning medical director.

Another corporate victim of the implants business is Vitek, a Texan company

founded by Dr Charles Homsy to make implants out of a material called
Propl
ast which he has been developing for more than 20 years. Vitek went
bankrupt
 in 1990, crushed by the weight of lawsuits by patients who suffered
adverse
 reactions - including severe and intractable pain - after receiving
jaw imp
lants containing Proplast.
Homsy believes that the fault did not lie with th
e material itself but
with the way it was used. He has shown his faith in it
 by joining a new
company in Switzerland, Promotus, to continue developing a
nd marketing
Proplast (a porous matrix of Teflon plastic with hydroxy-apatit
e).
Surgeons in the Netherlands are carrying out a long-term trial of hip
im
plants coated with Proplast.
So much for passive implants to replace failed 
bones and joints. Research
into active implants, which substitute for nerves
 and muscles, is less
advanced but potentially more far-reaching in its impl
ications. Already,
electronic devices are beginning to give some hearing to 
the deaf and
movement to the severely disabled.
Doctors have most experience
 with the 'cochlear implant', fitted surgically
into the bone behind the ear
. It converts digitised sounds, transmitted from
a small external microphone
, into electrical signals which stimulate the
auditory nerves inside the ear
. These send impulses to the brain, which
interprets them as crude sounds.
L
ord Ashley, the UK's best-known campaigner for the deaf, brought the
technol
ogy to public attention in Britain last year when he received a
cochlear imp
lant. He spoke movingly of being able to hear his family again
after 25 year
s of silence. 'I can best describe what I hear as being like
listening to a 
croaking Dalek with laryngitis,' Ashley said, 'but compared
with total deafn
ess it is a miracle.'
Devices to restore some hand movement to quadriplegic 
patients with broken
backs or necks are being developed at Case Western Rese
rve University in
Ohio. The system relies on the fact that most quadriplegic
s can shrug their
shoulders slightly. The movement controls a joy-stick whic
h transmits
signals to an electronic unit under the wheelchair. This activat
es a
stimulator about the size of a heart pacemaker, implanted in the should
er,
which sends electrical impulses down the arm to the paralysed hand muscl
es.
The experimental hand grasp system does not restore full finger movement
s
but it has enabled a dozen patients in the US to write, brush their hair a
nd
teeth, hold a telephone, sew and paint. Now surgeons at Salisbury Distric
t
Hospital are preparing to test the system in the UK.
The only vital organ 
for which medical technology cannot yet offer any
assistance is the brain. E
ven that is only a matter of time. Humphreys
predicts that within 50 years i
t will be possible to implant memory chips to
boost our failing intellectual
 faculties.
'If we can design an interface between silicon chips and brain c
ells, the
first step will be a pre-programmed chip which the brain could rea
d,'
Humphreys says. 'Ultimately we would like the brain not to notice the
im
plant and to treat it as another piece of brain tissue. Then we could get
th
e brain to record information on the silicon chip and read it when
necessary
.'
Although Humphreys is more willing than his cautious colleagues to specul
ate
publicly about the future of biomedical technology, many scientists woul
d
regard his vision as a reasonable extrapolation of current research. Most

would see brain-boosting implants - whether to extend human intelligence or

to treat diseases such as Alzheimer's - as a welcome development, not a
sci-
fi nightmare.
There is an interesting paradox here. As medical scientists ad
d increasingly
sophisticated implants to people, so robotics researchers wil
l be giving
machines the mental and even anatomical features of humans. Duri
ng the
coming Bionic Age, the distinction between human beings with implants
 and
humanised robots will become increasingly blurred.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countri
es:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P8
73  Research and Testing Services.
    P384  Medical Instruments and Supplie
s.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    TECH  Products
 & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I <
/PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 101 ==============================================
Transaction #:    101       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-1003</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BEIBNAA4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9105
09
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  09 MAY 91 / Technology: Hard times to bear - In th
e third of a series on innovation in the recession, Andrew Baxter describes 
how the UK machine tools sector is coping </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW 
BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Anthony Balding could hardly believe his eyes when h
e stopped by one stand
at a recent machine tool exhibition in Taiwan. 'I saw
 one local manufacturer
there which had launched nine machines in one hit. T
hat's a rate which can't
be dreamed of in the UK.'
Especially, it appears, i
n a recession. The UK machine tool industry, says
Balding, managing director
 of Norfolk-based Beaver Engineering Group, is
probably in its worst positio
n for sales and orders for 20 or 30 years. Some
manufacturers say domestic s
ales are down 40 per cent over the past year,
although few admit to sufferin
g as badly as that.
Beaver has been as innovative as any in the UK industry 
over the past five
or six years, developing a niche market in machining cent
res - large
multi-purpose machine tools - and turning machines.
'In our indu
stry you should be looking at a major new product, or a
substantial change t
o an existing product, every 18 months,' says Balding.
Last summer it shippe
d the first of a new machine that cost around Pounds
700,000 to develop, a b
ig investment for a company with annual sales of
Pounds 11m-Pounds 12m.
Now,
 however, Beaver has cut back on new product development and, says
Balding, 
'we are moving as slowly as we have done for 10 or 12 years. It
hurts me gre
atly because our competitors in Japan, Germany and Taiwan are
not slowing do
wn. The recession is going to put us two years behind where we
would have be
en.'
Across the country at Leicester, Malcolm Taylor, managing director of
U
S-owned Bridgeport Machines, is taking a different tack. Bridgeport, which
c
laims to be the largest UK machine tool producer, has shed some 'bottom
end'
 research and development staff, and set up a multi-disciplined hit-team
fro
m R&D, production and quality.
The aim, says Taylor, is to quicken the pace 
of new product development. 'We
are trying to run at 100mph to introduce new
 products, freshen up a
depressed market and prepare for the upturn.' A new 
range of machines will
begin to come on the market next month offering innov
ation and more
specification for little difference in price.
Taylor is deter
mined not to lose two years to his powerful German and
Japanese competitors.
 'In this business, either you get on the roundabout
and make it go faster, 
or you get off,' he says.
These two strategies for getting through the reces
sion may vary in emphasis,
and would probably differ from those at the other
 120-odd machine tool
manufacturers in Britain's highly-fragmented machine t
ool sector - the
world's seventh biggest with estimated sales last year of D
ollars 1.72bn.
But the encouraging link is the importance that companies att
ach to
innovation - new machines, new production techniques, new attitudes t
o
selling. That is not just because it is a time when machine tool makers'
t
houghts turn to innovation, as the 9th EMO, the big biennial European
machin
e tool exhibition, opens next month in Paris.
More fundamentally, the commit
ment to innovation is based on the fear of
history repeating itself. The pos
t-war British machine tool industry has
witnessed the demise of dozens of fa
mous names - led by Alfred Herbert, once
the world's biggest producer - due 
in to a static product range and refusal
to modernise manufacturing techniqu
es.
The key development in machine tools over the past 25 years has been the

introduction of numerically controlled, and later computer numerically
cont
rolled (CNC) machines, which have transformed the accuracy and
flexibility o
f machine tools.
This trend was spearheaded by the Japanese producers, and l
ed to the
introduction of machining centres which can hold 100 or more tools
 and
memorise a series of jobs on a variety of workpieces. That in turn led 
on to
flexible manufacturing systems, where a host computer controls a group
 of
interlinked machine tools and machining centres.
British manufacturers h
ave struggled to cope with this of the industry.
Although the mechanical asp
ects of machine tools have developed to take
advantage of the greater precis
ion offered by computers, the extent to which
a machine tool industry can of
fer CNC machines has become perhaps the most
important indicator of its tech
nological state of health.
In the UK, the Machine Tool Technologies Associat
ion estimates that NC/CNC
machine tools have risen from about 11 per cent of
 British manufacturers'
sales in 1978 to 35 per cent in 1989. That is still 
a long way behind the
Japanese at more than 80 per cent, but compares quite 
well with 45 per cent
for the old West Germany.
The commitment to expand the
 application of CNC is continuing despite the
recession. As recently as the 
mid-1980s, most British manufacturers would
have relied almost totally on CN
C unit suppliers such as Allen-Bradley of
the US. Now the bigger companies h
ave their own in-house software
development teams who, according to one obse
rver, 'are unlikely to be
sitting around doing nothing in a recession'.
The 
use of CNC varies considerably, and is not limited to the larger
producers. 
Privately-owned Pneuform Bending Machines, based in Aldershot,
derives 85 pe
r cent of its turnover from CNC machines.
Pneuform has just 18 full-time emp
loyees and is cushioned from the recession
by exporting 75 per cent of its P
ounds 1.3m annual sales. In Paris it is
unveiling what it claims is a wire b
ending machine with a patented technique
for forming wire components such as
 exhaust brackets and supermarket
trollies.
Sensibly, the survivors of the s
hakeout in the UK machine tool industry over
the past 20 years are concentra
ting on specialisation rather than taking on
the big-volume Japanese produce
rs such as Okuma and Toyoda. This has led to
the fostering of a small-compan
y, owner-manager philosophy, with many
producers focusing all their developm
ent, production and marketing skills on
one product area in an attempt to st
ay competitive.
That has its advantages and drawbacks. Innovative production
 techniques can
be brought in quickly and have a speedy effect. Len Weaver, 
chairman of
Jones & Shipman, the Leicester-based grinding machine producer, 
recalls that
five years ago the company had a 'build programme' of its produ
ction run for
the next 12 months. Once written, it was cast in iron. Now it 
is produced
every eight weeks.
The introduction of computer-aided design can
 quickly boost the productivity
of a small team of draughtsmen, and signific
antly improve the flow of new
products. But a recession exposes the weakness
es of a fragmented industry
that is constantly seeking improvements to its p
roducts and methods.
At Beaver, Balding has just spent Pounds 4.5m on a new 
factory, but is now
putting off spending a further Pounds 100,000-Pounds 140
,000 on a CNC turret
punch that would have automated a semi-manual section o
f production.
And small companies shouldering the entire burden of a new pro
duct programme
can find themselves going into loss, as happened at Beaver.
B
ut Balding refuses to import technology via licence agreements. 'I believe
t
hat if you buy in designs other than to let that design be a small part of
y
our total programme, it is the beginning of the end,' he told the recent
Hou
se of Lords inquiry into innovation in British industry.
He points out that 
the UK machine tool industry is now so small that
companies have to look inw
ard for solutions, with the exception of areas
such as computer technology.

There is some justification for this fiercely-independent approach. The
indu
stry will probably never see another sea-change like CNC, and for the
past d
ecade has been concentrating on incremental product development.
Consequentl
y R&D in the UK is 'not much R and a lot of D,' according to one
manufacture
r.
This is true even in the grinding sector, which for technical reasons has

lagged behind others in the application of CNC. With an abrasive grinding
w
heel constantly changing its size and shape, CNC has been able to cope with

this complex set of variables only since the mid-1980s.
Although much smalle
r than it was 15 or 20 years ago, the UK industry has
maintained an expertis
e in grinding technology that remains on a par with
rivals worldwide. This w
as strengthened last month when J&S agreed to
acquire rights to creep-feed t
echnology (grinding slowly in a single, deep
cut) from Brown & Sharpe of the
 US.
Tom Pearce, director of Bristol University's Institute of Grinding
Tech
nology, says some manufacturers are wary about joining in collaborative
rese
arch programmes, for fear of giving away too much to competitors. Pearce
say
s the recession has forced a few companies to pull out of research
projects,
 but this year he has had more inquiries than ever before.
J&S made a splash
 at the 7th EMO in 1987 with its Format 5 CNC surface
grinder, but is conten
ting itself this year with some more modest
refinements to its range.
Behind
 the scenes, it continues to innovate its production methods, such as
ration
alising the major castings used in its surface grinders. 'That does
not stop
 because of a recession. It's important to keep those efforts
going,' says J
ohn Liverton, technical director.
Next week's article looks at the computer 
industry.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 16 Grap
h (Omitted). Chart (Omitted). Illustration (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 102 ==============================================
Transaction #:    102       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-1793</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DFVCUAE7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9306
22
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 JUN 93 / UK Company News: Collaborating with th
e customer to make the magic circle - Andrew Baxter examines the strategy be
hind Stadco's success in winning its first order from a German carmaker </HE
ADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FEW THINGS cheer hard-
pressed manufacturers so much as winning a first-ever
contract in a difficul
t foreign market against entrenched rivals. When that
market is Germany, UK 
exporters need all the help they can get.
In March, Shrewsbury-based Stadco,
 part of publicly-quoted Hall Engineering
(Holdings), announced a Pounds 21m
 order from Audi, part of the Volkswagen
group, to supply vehicle assembly e
quipment and related tooling - its first
order from a German-owned car compa
ny.
Last September's devaluation of the pound against the D-mark helped, say
s Mr
Alan Mace, Stadco's managing director.
But the victory was also the res
ult of months of close technical and
commercial collaboration between the tw
o companies in a market where
suppliers increasingly need to get in early if
 they are to influence
production processes.
Devaluation could not have come
 at a better time for Stadco. Coupled with
the German motor industry's new f
ound commitment to outsourcing components
and manufacturing equipment beyond
 its traditional domestic suppliers, the
company has a special opportunity t
o expand its presence in the European
automotive market.
Mr Mace wants to li
ft Stadco from the second tier of equipment suppliers up
to, or close to, th
e hallowed inner circle of three big European suppliers:
Comau of Italy and 
Kuka and Thyssen of Germany. As the carmakers reduce the
number of suppliers
 with which they deal, Mr Mace wants Stadco to be on as
many contract short 
lists as possible.
But he also believes that the devaluation, and the experi
ence gained from
working with the Japanese car producers or the Japanese-inf
luenced motor
industry in the UK - such as Rover - puts Stadco in a good pos
ition to
develop its automotive pressings business.
Working with Japanese ve
hicle manufacturers in the UK has prompted Stadco to
adopt their 'cost-down'
 approach, eliminating waste, implementing continuous
improvement programmes
, and tightening stock control in a way that has yet
to be achieved by conti
nental European pressing companies. German vehicle
manufacturers, too, have 
been slow to specify Japanese production equipment,
he says, but could buy f
rom Stadco, which has incorporated some elements of
Japanese 'lean' manufact
uring techniques into its own equipment.
Stadco is the successor to the old 
Chatwood Safe Company, which now survives
as Stadco Security, the strong roo
m supplier and builder. Together with
Stadco Cooling, which makes industrial
 cooling systems, this represents only
about 5 per cent of the business.
The
 rest is automotive pressings - steel stampings and sub-assemblies - and
aut
omation, specialised equipment for assembling parts of a car body.
And this 
is where Stadco has been growing. Orders received have jumped from
a total o
f Pounds 25m in 1983 and 1984 to Pounds 115m in 1991 and 1992.
Sales have ri
sen from Pounds 11m in 1983 to Pounds 45m-Pounds 50m in each of
the past two
 years. That compares with Hall's total turnover of Pounds
135.7m in 1992.
S
tadco's profits hit a peak of Pounds 4.86m in 1991, but slipped back last
ye
ar to Pounds 2.94m, a reflection of the difficult conditions in the motor
in
dustry.
In spite of the profits downturn, Mr Mace is confident about Stadco'
s future
and its financial health. The company has been regularly generating
 cash
since the mid-1980s, he says, and has sold more abroad than at home in
 five
of the past 10 years.
And, over the past decade, capital employed has 
only doubled while sales
have more than quadrupled - due to tighter manageme
nt controls and better
negotiations on payment terms from customers.
Behind 
the numbers, however, lies a change in strategy which Mr Mace
believes rescu
ed the pressings division from a 'slow, painful death.' In
1986 and 1987, th
e division was at the peak of its profitability, making
large pressings for 
the automotive industry.
But Stadco anticipated that customers would increas
ingly want to retain
their large pressings in-house - to keep body-skin info
rmation private as
long as possible, and to save on damage and transportatio
n costs.
The pressings business needed, therefore, to move into the market f
or
smaller, higher value-added, sub-assemblies, which vehicle makers
increas
ingly want to outsource. An example is a centre pillar assembly -
'not exact
ly a glamour item, but there is quite a lot of assembly involved,'
says Mr M
ace.
The change of tack has proved correct, he says. 'Had we not moved out o
f
simple, large pressings, we would not now be in business'.
The automation 
division, meanwhile, is responding to the growth in its
business and to the 
increasing size of individual contracts. The division's
final assembly manuf
acturing space is being doubled to 40,000 sq ft.
At the same time, the divis
ion is trying to encourage vehicle makers to
leave it more of the detail of 
an assembly line design and take it into
their confidence earlier through a 
process of simultaneous engineering. The
aim is to reduce costs and cut lead
 times while minimising the risk of
losing business if a contract is put out
 to bidding in the traditional way.
Mr Mace has recently been looking at aut
omation and pressings companies in
France and Germany with a view to possibl
e acquisition or joint venture.
Working together could win business that wou
ld otherwise not have been
available, he says.
But Stadco remains heavily de
pendent on the automotive industry. 'We're
exposed both to the production si
de and to the capital expenditure side,'
says Mr Mace.
Consequently, he is o
n the look-out for a 'third leg' for Stadco - either in
a different part of 
the automotive industry or, preferably, a non-automotive
business in a techn
ology that Stadco understands. 'I'd feel more comfortable
then,' he admits.

</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Stadco.
    Hall Engineering Holdings.
</
CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industrie
s:-
</XX>
<IN>P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Types.
    P3542 Machine To
ols, Metal Forming Types.
    P3714 Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories.
</I
N>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial
 Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 103 ==============================================
Transaction #:    103       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:54
Selec. Rec. #:     28

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-3399</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCPCCAF4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac
ture (4): Partnership in an age of technical complexity - Ever more work is 
being farmed out </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PAUL TAYLOR </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE
 use of contract manufacturers in the West grew rapidly over the past
decade
 as managements reassessed their corporate strategies.
As a result many comp
anies decided to concentrate on their core activities
and turn other functio
ns, including manufacturing, over to specialist
contractors.
This reassessme
nt was often prompted by the need to remain competitive in an
increasingly g
lobal marketplace. It also highlighted other concepts such as
total quality 
management and just-in-time inventory control which contribute
to the succes
s of Japanese companies.
Contracting out of manufacturing and assembly is we
ll established in Japan.
Recent research at Tokyo University suggests that i
t now accounts for over a
third of Japanese companies' total manufacturing c
osts and will increase to
over 40 per cent by the end of the decade. In the 
1960s it was less than 20
per cent.
Most Japanese companies farm out manufac
turing in the belief that
specialists can offer better quality and efficienc
y. It may also help them
to cut costs, scale down capital spending and conce
ntrate on what they are
really good at - market research, product definition
, product planning,
marketing and sales.
According to a survey by MHM, a mar
ket research organisation based in Ayr,
Scotland, about 35 per cent of Europ
ean contract electronics customers had
no electronics assembly operations of
 their own.
There are many reasons why manufacturers use contract manufactur
ers and cost
is not always the principal one. Some studies in the US suggest
 that
managements who use sub-contractors principally to cut overheads and j
obs
end up regretting the decision.
Most management consultants argue that c
ontract manufacturing should form
part of an overall strategy to improve qua
lity and competitiveness by
delivering the right products to market at the r
ight time and the right
price.
The basis of total quality theory is to ident
ify, and be responsive to, the
customer, produce a top quality product first
 time, and work to improve
quality all the time. A partnership with a contra
ct manufacturer can help
achieve these aims.
In any case, within the electro
nics industry the days are gone when OEMs can
do everything themselves in or
der to retain most of the added value. Already
most components are bought in
 and, since they are now so complex, the bulk
of the cost of an assembled pr
inted circuit board (PCB) lies in the
components it carries.
As competition 
in the global electronics industry has grown the competent
handling of these
 components, some of which may cost hundreds of pounds, has
become crucial i
f a company is to maintain its profit margins.
'The diversification of disci
plines and expertise in modern electronics is
driving companies to reassess 
their core function and raison d'etre for
being in the business,' says Mr De
rek Duffett, director of the Association
of Contract Electronics manufacture
rs (ACeM).
'The 80:20 rule applies to many aspects of business, be it range 
of
products, or range of activities; in other words only 20 per cent of
prod
ucts or activities produce 80 per cent of the profit,' he adds.
Today compan
ies, particularly large multinationals, are increasingly aware
of the signif
icance of both direct and indirect costs. Contracting out
manufacturing free
s capital to invest in core activities and enables the
management to concent
rate on key areas which will help to maintain a
competitive edge.
In additio
n the advent of capital intensive processes such as surface mount
technology
 (SMT) has encouraged many OEMs, particularly those outside the
electronics 
industry, to leave such specialist activity to contract
electronics manufact
urers.
Electronic controls are replacing older electro-mechanical controls i
n many
areas including automotive design, medical systems and a wide range o
f
consumer goods such as washing machines. However many manufacturers cannot

justify the cost of SMT or other automated manufacturing equipment which
wo
uld stand idle much of the time.
Similarly the use of a contract manufacture
r can remove the need to recruit
and train expensive specialist staff. The c
ontract manufacturer's employees
represent a pool of dedicated technical and
 production expertise which is
available to the customer. Indeed most contra
ct manufacturers now offer a
full range of services to their clients includi
ng, if required, PCB design,
layout, manufacture and testing.
However greate
r flexibility and speed of response are probably the most
important advantag
e of using contract electronics manufacturers. Most
contract manufacturers h
ave the capacity and flexible workforce to start
production very quickly to 
meet an unexpected surge in demand.
A striking characteristic of today's ele
ctronics and computer markets is the
shortening of product life cycles - in 
some parts of the computer industry
they have shrunk to as little as six mon
ths and OEMs need to move quickly
from one product and technology to the nex
t.
Contract manufacturing can help to ensure this fast response and lessen t
he
risk associated with manufacturing and holding inventory.
Contractors can
 also work with a customer to reduce costs during a product
life cycle. Othe
r potential advantages include economies of scale in
component purchasing an
d the use of sophisticated computerised automated
manufacturing and test sys
 tems to improve quality and provide
'just-in-time' deliveries. Most contrac
t manufacturers have embraced total
quality programmes, and obtained certifi
cation.
Sometimes there are significant cost advantages to using a contract

electronics manufacturer. However, cost comparisons need to be approached
ca
refully. Often the true costs of in-house manufacturing operations are
obscu
red, for example by shared corporate functions. In addition,
comparisons bet
ween CEMs in different parts of the world can be confusing.
On the basis of 
labour costs alone contract electronics manufacturers in the
Far East contin
ue to have an advantage over their counterparts in Europe and
North America.
 However the gap is narrowing and the use of increasingly
automated equipmen
t means that the cost of labour is often relatively
insignificant.
Most Euro
pean CEMs also say that any cost advantage of manufacturing in the
Far East 
can easily be offset by intangible costs such as delays in shipping
and loss
 of design flexibility.
Indeed a number of PC manufacturers have recently br
ought manufacturing back
from Far East contractors. ICL, for example, stoppe
d buying its systems from
Acer, one of Taiwan's biggest OEM suppliers, follo
wing a feasibility study
by consultants KPMG. The machines are manufactured 
by ICL at its plant in
Ashton-under-Lyne.
ICL also acts as a contract manufa
cturer in the UK for Sun Microsystems of
the US. It says that its decision t
o bring manufacturing back from the Far
East was based partly on increasing 
volumes and partly because the market
was changing.
It found that the benefi
ts of Far Eastern cheap labour were being
out-weighed by the disadvantages -
 higher import duties, reconfiguration on
arrival, the logistics of product 
being at sea for six weeks, arms length
quality and technology changes leadi
ng to obsolete stock.
Mr Gordon Stewart of consultants Pittiglio Rabin Todd 
and McGrath argues
that the demands placed on contract manufacturers have ch
anged. 'Two issues
are shaping the future of contract electronics manufactur
ing: volume
flexibility and design integration.'
He says that price and qual
ity are a given. 'The keys to competitiveness now
are responsiveness - lead 
times, volumes - and the capacity to integrate
manufacturing and test proces
ses into an OEM's own product development
strategy.'
But at an ACeM conferen
ce last year he also cautioned that many contract
manufacturers fell a long 
way short of these expectations and only got by
because few OEMs could manag
e a contractor relationship professionally.
Mr Duffett, the ACeM's director,
 acknowledges that for many managers, who
are used to in-house manufacturing
 using bought-in piece parts, farming out
work with independent CEMs represe
nts a significant change of practice,
calling for a radically new buyer/supp
lier relationship.
'The days of arm's length negotiations with choices based
 solely on lowest
price and shortest delivery are over,' he says.
</TEXT>
<X
X>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P36  
 Electronic and Other Electric Equipment.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT 
 Comment & Analysis.
    MGMT  Management.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </
PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 35 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 104 ==============================================
Transaction #:    104       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:04
Selec. Rec. #:     29

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   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
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   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4420</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AD8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for 
advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar
e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia
ls, applied robotics and new energy applications </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By 
JOHN GRIFFITHS </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i
s unique in the demands it
places on the processes of industrial design, dev
elopment and production and
the technologies which make them possible.
This 
uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of
the pr
oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands
comparison with
 an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and
complexities of manufa
cturing in large volumes.
Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic
les. Each vehicle
contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a
ddition, the
industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t
he world's
largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted.
As pa
rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of
the 
most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually
every t
echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied
robotics and 
new energy applications.
In the past few years, competition has been added t
o other environmental and
legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there
 are expected to be more
than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce
ntury - have become an
enormous environmental problem.
In endeavouring to mi
nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry
is exploring a broad a
rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in
order to improve fuel
 economy and alternative energy sources and recycling.
Many of these will br
ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and
technologies to what has b
een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry.
In the area of vehicle bodi
es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites
are challenging traditiona
l steels. Both are much lighter than steel.
Neither suffers from steel's pro
pensity to rust.
Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi
nced of
aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil
t in
aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan
els
are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding.
If suc
h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a
foregone c
onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are
implications right th
rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting
foundries and the dem
and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing
systems.
The advent of pl
astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in
new processes and 
players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are
anxious not to lo
se the impetus they have gained from projects such as
General Motors' Saturn
 with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car
bodies are made of ther
moplastics hung on a steel skeleton.
The past three or four years has seen a
 spurt in the manufacturing
technology for such materials. The industry has 
learned how to make plastics
stampable into body panels and is making rapid 
strides in reducing the
lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded
 components - one of the
material's biggest drawbacks.
Such developments are
 stimulating those engaged in processing more
traditional materials to fight
 back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German
foundries group and one of the
 world's biggest independent iron castings
suppliers, has introduced a proce
ss for casting iron. It was developed by
Professor Lennart Backerud and it i
s claimed that it reduces the weight of a
casting by 30 per cent and costs b
y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength.
Pressures are mounting not only to 
make vehicles lighter and cleaner but
also the manufacturing processes. Nowh
ere has this been more apparent than
in vehicle paint plants which use tens 
of millions of gallons annually.
The industry is switching to water-based pa
ints rather than the aromatic
solvent-based materials which have contributed
 to atmospheric pollution. The
latest generations of car plants endeavour to
 capture, clean or even recycle
their manufacturing emissions.
Opel's Russel
sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy
for the plant
. Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become
famous: shoals
 of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific
manufacturing tec
hnology improvements such as these are being introduced
within a much broade
r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened
competition from th
e Japanese.
The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three
 years or
less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester
n
producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be
ove
rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm.
However, while reaching t
his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to
use the design and engine
ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its
product spread and probe into
 an increasing number of specialist niches.
The US industry, first in the fi
ring line of Japanese market share
ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a
doption of simultaneous engineering
techniques to help it fight back.
Genera
l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit
from a sy
stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively
simple. All 
operating elements of the manufacturer are involved
simultaneously with a ne
w car from first concept through to the first
vehicle coming off the product
ion line.
That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it 
is not one
that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical
 procedure
has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a 
vehicle,
then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp
romises
are made to make driveline equipment fit.
Subsequently, the finance 
division usually puts pressure on for cheaper
components to be used in some 
areas, introducing more compromises. As the
finale, the manufacturing divisi
on is then likely to point out that the
vehicle is too difficult to make, or
 that additional investment will be
needed in adapting production lines.
How
ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven
tec
hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a
company
's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously,
together
 with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems
which l
ie at the heart of the industry.
As Europe braces for its own era of much-in
creased competition with Japanese
cars, the simultaneous engineering concept
 has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW
has created perhaps the largest single re
search engineering centre in the
European industry in pursuit of simultaneou
s engineering principles.
Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow
ers and multiple
connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of
 whom has to walk
more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f
irst-concept
designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the
 building
houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie
s of even
an outline design idea.
Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t
o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of
research and development at BMW, that it is c
utting two years from BMW's
development cycles. The design of the building i
s based on the concept that,
if physical distances between two designers or 
engineers are greater than
150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc
ussion of problems is
discouraged.
It represents a recognition by BMW that c
ompetitiveness is as much a
function of the proper organisation of human res
ources as of technology.
Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod
uction concept which,
started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt
ually every large car
maker as the only way of securing the long-term future
.
Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry

by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of
mu
lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert
wi
th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower
volumes
 of products in greater variety.
The study concluded that with this process 
Western producers are hoping to
close the production gap with Japan. For exa
mple, a US plant takes 25 hours
to assemble a car compared with an average o
f 13 hours in Japan.
It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only 
last month
Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan
ese
manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner

Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility

in the world.
He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean 
and capable of
cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri
ng quality and
the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr
ocedures. The
lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing
 to Japan.
Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The
 Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 105 ==============================================
Transaction #:    105       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:08
Selec. Rec. #:     29

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: or    Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4420</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AD8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for 
advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar
e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia
ls, applied robotics and new energy applications </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By 
JOHN GRIFFITHS </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i
s unique in the demands it
places on the processes of industrial design, dev
elopment and production and
the technologies which make them possible.
This 
uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of
the pr
oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands
comparison with
 an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and
complexities of manufa
cturing in large volumes.
Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic
les. Each vehicle
contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a
ddition, the
industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t
he world's
largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted.
As pa
rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of
the 
most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually
every t
echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied
robotics and 
new energy applications.
In the past few years, competition has been added t
o other environmental and
legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there
 are expected to be more
than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce
ntury - have become an
enormous environmental problem.
In endeavouring to mi
nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry
is exploring a broad a
rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in
order to improve fuel
 economy and alternative energy sources and recycling.
Many of these will br
ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and
technologies to what has b
een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry.
In the area of vehicle bodi
es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites
are challenging traditiona
l steels. Both are much lighter than steel.
Neither suffers from steel's pro
pensity to rust.
Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi
nced of
aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil
t in
aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan
els
are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding.
If suc
h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a
foregone c
onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are
implications right th
rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting
foundries and the dem
and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing
systems.
The advent of pl
astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in
new processes and 
players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are
anxious not to lo
se the impetus they have gained from projects such as
General Motors' Saturn
 with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car
bodies are made of ther
moplastics hung on a steel skeleton.
The past three or four years has seen a
 spurt in the manufacturing
technology for such materials. The industry has 
learned how to make plastics
stampable into body panels and is making rapid 
strides in reducing the
lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded
 components - one of the
material's biggest drawbacks.
Such developments are
 stimulating those engaged in processing more
traditional materials to fight
 back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German
foundries group and one of the
 world's biggest independent iron castings
suppliers, has introduced a proce
ss for casting iron. It was developed by
Professor Lennart Backerud and it i
s claimed that it reduces the weight of a
casting by 30 per cent and costs b
y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength.
Pressures are mounting not only to 
make vehicles lighter and cleaner but
also the manufacturing processes. Nowh
ere has this been more apparent than
in vehicle paint plants which use tens 
of millions of gallons annually.
The industry is switching to water-based pa
ints rather than the aromatic
solvent-based materials which have contributed
 to atmospheric pollution. The
latest generations of car plants endeavour to
 capture, clean or even recycle
their manufacturing emissions.
Opel's Russel
sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy
for the plant
. Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become
famous: shoals
 of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific
manufacturing tec
hnology improvements such as these are being introduced
within a much broade
r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened
competition from th
e Japanese.
The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three
 years or
less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester
n
producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be
ove
rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm.
However, while reaching t
his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to
use the design and engine
ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its
product spread and probe into
 an increasing number of specialist niches.
The US industry, first in the fi
ring line of Japanese market share
ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a
doption of simultaneous engineering
techniques to help it fight back.
Genera
l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit
from a sy
stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively
simple. All 
operating elements of the manufacturer are involved
simultaneously with a ne
w car from first concept through to the first
vehicle coming off the product
ion line.
That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it 
is not one
that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical
 procedure
has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a 
vehicle,
then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp
romises
are made to make driveline equipment fit.
Subsequently, the finance 
division usually puts pressure on for cheaper
components to be used in some 
areas, introducing more compromises. As the
finale, the manufacturing divisi
on is then likely to point out that the
vehicle is too difficult to make, or
 that additional investment will be
needed in adapting production lines.
How
ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven
tec
hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a
company
's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously,
together
 with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems
which l
ie at the heart of the industry.
As Europe braces for its own era of much-in
creased competition with Japanese
cars, the simultaneous engineering concept
 has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW
has created perhaps the largest single re
search engineering centre in the
European industry in pursuit of simultaneou
s engineering principles.
Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow
ers and multiple
connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of
 whom has to walk
more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f
irst-concept
designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the
 building
houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie
s of even
an outline design idea.
Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t
o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of
research and development at BMW, that it is c
utting two years from BMW's
development cycles. The design of the building i
s based on the concept that,
if physical distances between two designers or 
engineers are greater than
150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc
ussion of problems is
discouraged.
It represents a recognition by BMW that c
ompetitiveness is as much a
function of the proper organisation of human res
ources as of technology.
Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod
uction concept which,
started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt
ually every large car
maker as the only way of securing the long-term future
.
Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry

by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of
mu
lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert
wi
th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower
volumes
 of products in greater variety.
The study concluded that with this process 
Western producers are hoping to
close the production gap with Japan. For exa
mple, a US plant takes 25 hours
to assemble a car compared with an average o
f 13 hours in Japan.
It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only 
last month
Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan
ese
manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner

Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility

in the world.
He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean 
and capable of
cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri
ng quality and
the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr
ocedures. The
lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing
 to Japan.
Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The
 Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 106 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4420</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AD8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for 
advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar
e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia
ls, applied robotics and new energy applications </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By 
JOHN GRIFFITHS </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i
s unique in the demands it
places on the processes of industrial design, dev
elopment and production and
the technologies which make them possible.
This 
uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of
the pr
oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands
comparison with
 an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and
complexities of manufa
cturing in large volumes.
Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic
les. Each vehicle
contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a
ddition, the
industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t
he world's
largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted.
As pa
rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of
the 
most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually
every t
echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied
robotics and 
new energy applications.
In the past few years, competition has been added t
o other environmental and
legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there
 are expected to be more
than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce
ntury - have become an
enormous environmental problem.
In endeavouring to mi
nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry
is exploring a broad a
rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in
order to improve fuel
 economy and alternative energy sources and recycling.
Many of these will br
ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and
technologies to what has b
een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry.
In the area of vehicle bodi
es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites
are challenging traditiona
l steels. Both are much lighter than steel.
Neither suffers from steel's pro
pensity to rust.
Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi
nced of
aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil
t in
aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan
els
are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding.
If suc
h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a
foregone c
onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are
implications right th
rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting
foundries and the dem
and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing
systems.
The advent of pl
astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in
new processes and 
players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are
anxious not to lo
se the impetus they have gained from projects such as
General Motors' Saturn
 with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car
bodies are made of ther
moplastics hung on a steel skeleton.
The past three or four years has seen a
 spurt in the manufacturing
technology for such materials. The industry has 
learned how to make plastics
stampable into body panels and is making rapid 
strides in reducing the
lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded
 components - one of the
material's biggest drawbacks.
Such developments are
 stimulating those engaged in processing more
traditional materials to fight
 back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German
foundries group and one of the
 world's biggest independent iron castings
suppliers, has introduced a proce
ss for casting iron. It was developed by
Professor Lennart Backerud and it i
s claimed that it reduces the weight of a
casting by 30 per cent and costs b
y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength.
Pressures are mounting not only to 
make vehicles lighter and cleaner but
also the manufacturing processes. Nowh
ere has this been more apparent than
in vehicle paint plants which use tens 
of millions of gallons annually.
The industry is switching to water-based pa
ints rather than the aromatic
solvent-based materials which have contributed
 to atmospheric pollution. The
latest generations of car plants endeavour to
 capture, clean or even recycle
their manufacturing emissions.
Opel's Russel
sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy
for the plant
. Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become
famous: shoals
 of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific
manufacturing tec
hnology improvements such as these are being introduced
within a much broade
r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened
competition from th
e Japanese.
The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three
 years or
less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester
n
producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be
ove
rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm.
However, while reaching t
his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to
use the design and engine
ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its
product spread and probe into
 an increasing number of specialist niches.
The US industry, first in the fi
ring line of Japanese market share
ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a
doption of simultaneous engineering
techniques to help it fight back.
Genera
l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit
from a sy
stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively
simple. All 
operating elements of the manufacturer are involved
simultaneously with a ne
w car from first concept through to the first
vehicle coming off the product
ion line.
That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it 
is not one
that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical
 procedure
has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a 
vehicle,
then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp
romises
are made to make driveline equipment fit.
Subsequently, the finance 
division usually puts pressure on for cheaper
components to be used in some 
areas, introducing more compromises. As the
finale, the manufacturing divisi
on is then likely to point out that the
vehicle is too difficult to make, or
 that additional investment will be
needed in adapting production lines.
How
ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven
tec
hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a
company
's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously,
together
 with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems
which l
ie at the heart of the industry.
As Europe braces for its own era of much-in
creased competition with Japanese
cars, the simultaneous engineering concept
 has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW
has created perhaps the largest single re
search engineering centre in the
European industry in pursuit of simultaneou
s engineering principles.
Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow
ers and multiple
connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of
 whom has to walk
more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f
irst-concept
designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the
 building
houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie
s of even
an outline design idea.
Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t
o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of
research and development at BMW, that it is c
utting two years from BMW's
development cycles. The design of the building i
s based on the concept that,
if physical distances between two designers or 
engineers are greater than
150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc
ussion of problems is
discouraged.
It represents a recognition by BMW that c
ompetitiveness is as much a
function of the proper organisation of human res
ources as of technology.
Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod
uction concept which,
started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt
ually every large car
maker as the only way of securing the long-term future
.
Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry

by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of
mu
lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert
wi
th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower
volumes
 of products in greater variety.
The study concluded that with this process 
Western producers are hoping to
close the production gap with Japan. For exa
mple, a US plant takes 25 hours
to assemble a car compared with an average o
f 13 hours in Japan.
It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only 
last month
Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan
ese
manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner

Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility

in the world.
He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean 
and capable of
cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri
ng quality and
the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr
ocedures. The
lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing
 to Japan.
Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The
 Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 107 ==============================================
Transaction #:    107       Transaction Code:  15 (Terms Cleared)          

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============= Transaction # 108 ==============================================
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zfind "(topic @ {infant birth rates}) and (topic {birth rates}) and (topic {
decline,reduction})"

============= Transaction # 109 ==============================================
Transaction #:    109       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)

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============= Transaction # 110 ==============================================
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zfind "(topic @ {decline in birth rates}) and (topic {birth }) and (topic {r
ates})"

============= Transaction # 111 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 112 ==============================================
Transaction #:    112       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England 
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany 
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes 
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children 
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' 
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people 
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining 
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting 
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. 
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has

had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East 
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early 
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women

have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of 
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these 
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer 
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women 
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to 
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of 
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 113 ==============================================
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      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

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  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England 
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany 
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes 
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children 
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' 
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people 
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining 
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting 
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. 
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has

had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East 
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early 
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women

have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of 
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these 
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer 
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women 
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to 
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of 
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 114 ==============================================
Transaction #:    114       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:43
Selec. Rec. #:      1

Boolean Indexes Used:

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   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: and   Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0

Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England 
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany 
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes 
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children 
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' 
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people 
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining 
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting 
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. 
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has

had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East 
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early 
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women

have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of 
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these 
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer 
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women 
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to 
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of 
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 115 ==============================================
Transaction #:    115       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:45
Selec. Rec. #:      2

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: and   Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-4008</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CCKB6AGPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9203
11
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  11 MAR 92 / The Budget (Government Statements): Pe
rsonal allowances to rise in line with statutory indexation - Income Tax </H
EADLINE>
<TEXT>
THE CHANCELLOR proposes in his Budget to:
reduce the rate of
 income tax to 20 per cent on the first Pounds 2,000 of
taxable income;
incr
ease the personal allowances for all age groups in line with the
statutory i
ndexation provisions;
increase the age-related married couple's allowances i
n line with the
statutory indexation provisions;
keep the married couple's a
llowances for those aged under 65, the additional
personal allowance and the
 widow's bereavement allowance at their 1991-92
level of Pounds 1,720;
make 
no change to the basic rate limit;
make no change in the basic and higher ra
tes of income tax.
New lower rate band. New tax tables incorporating the low
er rate band will
be used by employers on the first pay day after May 17.
Ch
anges in income tax allowances and car scale benefits. Tax offices will be
s
ending employers instructions to increase codes ending in L, H, P or V.
Revi
sed coding notices are not sent to employees when codes are increased
automa
tically in this way.
The codes of the following employees will be reviewed i
ndividually by tax
offices who will notify both the employee and the employe
r of the revised
code where a change is due: employees whose codes begin wit
h F or end in T;
employees whose codes include adjustments for car benefits.

Taxpayers aged 65 and over. It is proposed to raise the income limit for
ag
e-related allowances for those aged 65 and over from Pounds 13,500 to
Pounds
 14,200.
If a taxpayer's total income is below this limit the age-related al
lowances
are due in full; if it is above this limit they are reduced (by Pou
nds 1 for
every Pounds 2 of income above the limit) to the level of the basi
c personal
and married couple's allowance.
Tax offices will amend codes that
 at present include a reduced amount of
age-related allowances to take accou
nt of the increase in the income limit.
Where the size of a taxpayer's incom
e means that only the basic allowance
was given for 1991-92 but an age-relat
ed allowance is now due, the tax
office will revise the code where necessary
 in examining 1992-93 tax returns
from April onwards.
Any taxpayer aged 65 a
nd over whose 1992-93 code does not include an
age-related allowance at pres
ent but who expects to be entitled to an
age-related allowance following the
 proposed increase in the income limit
and has not been asked by the end of 
April to complete a 1992-93 tax return
should write to his or her tax office
 giving National Insurance number, date
of birth and details of income.
Main
tenance payments. The limit on maintenance payments qualifying for tax
relie
f is equal to the married couple's allowance. The limit for 1992-93
will be 
Pounds 1,720, the same as for 1991-92.
New 20 per cent rate of income tax. T
he chancellor proposes to reduce the
rate of income tax to 20 per cent on th
e first Pounds 2,000 of taxable
income (after allowances and reliefs).
The n
ew rate will apply for the tax year 1992-93, starting on 6 April. This
relea
se explains what it will mean for relief at source schemes and tax
deduction
 schemes. There is generally no change for people making payments,
but some 
people receiving income taxed at source will be able to claim a
repayment. T
he new rate will also apply for the purposes of capital gains
tax for those 
whose marginal income tax rate is 20 per cent.
Interest, annuities and annua
l payments. Tax should continue to be deducted
at the basic rate of 25 per c
ent by banks and building societies from
deposit interest not eligible for p
ayment without deduction of tax and other
payers of interest, annuities and 
other annual payments who are entitled or
obliged to deduct tax.
People who 
suffered deduction of tax at 25 per cent, but are liable to tax
only at the 
lower rate of 20 per cent, will be able to claim a repayment of
the differen
ce.
Advance Corporation Tax and Tax Credit on Dividends. The rate of advance

corporation tax remains at 25/75ths. Tax credit will continue to be given a
t
the same rate, and will satisfy shareholders' basic rate liability.
People
 who receive dividends and tax credits but who are liable to tax only
at the
 lower rate, will be able to claim payment of part of the tax credit
from th
e Inland Revenue.
Relief at Source Schemes. The relief given at source on mo
rtgage interest
under the Miras scheme remains at 25 per cent. This will app
ly even where
the borrower is only liable to tax at 20 per cent.
The same ap
plies to the other relief at source schemes: personal pension
contributions 
and free-standing additional voluntary contributions made by
employees; priv
ate medical insurance premiums covering people aged 60 and
over; and expendi
ture on vocational training (the new scheme starts on April
6 1992).
Deeds o
f Covenant and Gift Aid. People should continue to deduct tax at 25
per cent
 from payments to charities made under deed of covenant. The amount
to be pa
id to the charity by the covenantor will not be affected by the
introduction
 of the lower rate of tax. Payments under the Gift Aid Scheme
will continue 
to be treated as gifts made net of basic-rate tax.
As now, charities will be
 able to reclaim basic-rate tax from the Inland
Revenue on payments which th
ey receive under covenant or the Gift Aid
scheme. There will be no effect on
 the amount charities can reclaim.
Capital Gains Tax. Where appropriate, the
 new lower rate will apply to
capital gains. Net gains are treated as the to
p slice of income, and charged
to capital gains tax at income tax rates. If 
someone whose taxable income is
less than Pounds 2,000 has chargeable gains 
above the threshold (Pounds
5,800 in 1992-93), then the first taxable slice 
of their gain will be taxed
at the lower rate.
Trusts. The new lower rate do
es not apply to trusts. Trusts will continue to
be taxed at the basic rate o
f 25 per cent plus, where appropriate, the
additional rate of 10 per cent.
C
onstruction Industry Tax Deduction Scheme. The rate of deduction from
paymen
ts to uncertified subcontractors remains at 25 per cent. This is
credited in
 full against the subcontractor's eventual liability. If it
exceeds that lia
bility, the subcontractor will be entitled to a repayment.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 38 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 116 ==============================================
Transaction #:    116       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:58
Selec. Rec. #:      3

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: and   Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No 

   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9415</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBODHADOFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth

over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost

three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This 
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
 the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
 equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per 
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young 
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind 
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
 Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
 a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit 
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
 people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
 the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
 disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
 force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
 in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1 
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately 
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
     
                                Ireland           UK
 ----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP                       
             +26           +2
GDP per worker                         +23    
       +6.5
Total employment manufacturing          +3           -4.5
Employ
ment                              +5          -18
Real wages                
             +16           +9
Consumer prices                        +13    
      +30.5
Investment                             +11.5         -7.5
Person
al consumption                   +16           +3.5
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public 
borrowing                         2.5          7.2
Current external balance 
               +6.5         -2.3
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>IEZ  Irelan
d, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Gross d
omestic product.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 117 ==============================================
Transaction #:    117       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9415</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBODHADOFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth

over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost

three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This 
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
 the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
 equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per 
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young 
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind 
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
 Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
 a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit 
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
 people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
 the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
 disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
 force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
 in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1 
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately 
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
     
                                Ireland           UK
 ----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP                       
             +26           +2
GDP per worker                         +23    
       +6.5
Total employment manufacturing          +3           -4.5
Employ
ment                              +5          -18
Real wages                
             +16           +9
Consumer prices                        +13    
      +30.5
Investment                             +11.5         -7.5
Person
al consumption                   +16           +3.5
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public 
borrowing                         2.5          7.2
Current external balance 
               +6.5         -2.3
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>IEZ  Irelan
d, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Gross d
omestic product.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 118 ==============================================
Transaction #:    118       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9415</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBODHADOFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth

over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost

three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This 
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
 the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
 equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per 
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young 
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind 
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
 Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
 a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit 
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
 people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
 the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
 disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
 force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
 in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1 
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately 
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
     
                                Ireland           UK
 ----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP                       
             +26           +2
GDP per worker                         +23    
       +6.5
Total employment manufacturing          +3           -4.5
Employ
ment                              +5          -18
Real wages                
             +16           +9
Consumer prices                        +13    
      +30.5
Investment                             +11.5         -7.5
Person
al consumption                   +16           +3.5
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public 
borrowing                         2.5          7.2
Current external balance 
               +6.5         -2.3
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>IEZ  Irelan
d, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Gross d
omestic product.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 119 ==============================================
Transaction #:    119       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-12411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA4DIAAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
131
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2
): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
According to United Nations
 forecasts, the population of the world is likely
to double - to more than 1
0bn people - by the middle of the next century.
This will be one of the bigg
est forces shaping living standards of future
generations. Although growth w
ill take place almost entirely in developing
countries, few countries will b
e able to insulate themselves from the
effects.
However, population growth w
as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in
1992, although it is the source 
of increasing pressure on natural resources
and the environment in many regi
ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity
of the issue was so great - provo
king debates about differing cultural and
religious values - that it would f
rustrate attempts to reach agreement on
other fronts.
Even at the time of th
e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as
Prince Charles pointed
 out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although
countries put their name
s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and
bio-diversity (the variety of 
the world's wildlife), many have found
difficulty in drawing up realistic pl
ans for curbing environmental damage.
The omission has also allowed the noti
on of 'sustainable development' to
remain confused. That principle, which go
vernments attending Rio pledged to
observe, does not define whether resource
s are to be preserved at a certain
level for each person or simply for each 
country. Countries with rapidly
growing populations will find it almost impo
ssible to preserve resources -
however defined - on a per capita basis.
But 
although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably
larg
e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago.
Prominent among 
1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of
industrialists,
 scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food,
energy and raw m
aterials would run out. Since then, food production has
increased while popu
lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many
countries now looks li
ke one of the development successes of the past two
decades. Many Asian and 
Latin American countries have had particular success
in bringing down the ra
te of population growth.
India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the 
average number of
children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of 
about four. That
figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de
cades - although
still higher than the figure of just over two children per 
woman which would
maintain a static population.
However, across much of sub-
Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been
running at more than six children 
per woman. Demographers studying why some
countries have had more success th
an others point out that there is no
straightforward formula to apply. Longs
tanding assumptions that as a country
develops, its birth rate falls, fail t
o explain some of the patterns now
observed.
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a
nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls
in family size despite relativ
ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have
maintained fertility rates of
 more than three children per woman during a
period of fast economic growth.
 Instead, demographers are having to put
together a more complex picture, in
 which access to contraception, the level
of female education and the availa
bility of jobs for women all play a part.
There has also been international 
concern about the measures sometimes
employed to restrain birth rates, parti
cularly in China, which has fiercely
applied limits on family size. The scal
e of China's problem is undeniable:
China now has nearly a quarter of the wo
rld's population on about 7 per cent
of the world's arable land.
According t
o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to
about 1.9 f
rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as
western Europe
an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the
measures used by 
the Chinese government - including limiting urban families
to one child - ha
ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is
infringing human rights
.
Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav
e
outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn
agai
nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right.
They p
oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put
severe
 pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment.
They 
also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised
countries an
d the steady fall in the average age of the population in
developing countri
es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years
old currently outnu
mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North
America. But pensioners wi
ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North
America for the first time, t
he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has
said.
Mr David Coleman, a demo
grapher at Oxford University, says that
environmental degradation, pressure 
on resources and the search for jobs
will cause industrialised countries to 
be confronted with an unprecedented
influx of immigrants from poorer countri
es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of
UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures -
 even taking account only those
who have already been born. More than 2m imm
igrants are believed to have
entered both Europe and North America over the 
past two years alone. So far,
Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken 
the brunt of Russians, gypsies
and Romanians from the east, but political ch
aos in Russia could intensify
westward migration.
Governments and internatio
nal agencies for aid, development and the
environment may still be coy about
 addressing issues of curbing population
growth. But they will increasingly 
find the subject unavoidable. Worries
about consumption of resources and deg
radation of the environment are
well-established. But migration may be the f
actor which finally makes
countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de
veloping - face these
questions.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Dev
eloped Countries.
    XMZ  Africa.
    INZ  India, Asia.
    CNZ  China, Asi
a.
    XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>
P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Survey YOU Pag
e 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 120 ==============================================
Transaction #:    120       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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Selec. Rec. #:      4

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-12411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA4DIAAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
131
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2
): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
According to United Nations
 forecasts, the population of the world is likely
to double - to more than 1
0bn people - by the middle of the next century.
This will be one of the bigg
est forces shaping living standards of future
generations. Although growth w
ill take place almost entirely in developing
countries, few countries will b
e able to insulate themselves from the
effects.
However, population growth w
as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in
1992, although it is the source 
of increasing pressure on natural resources
and the environment in many regi
ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity
of the issue was so great - provo
king debates about differing cultural and
religious values - that it would f
rustrate attempts to reach agreement on
other fronts.
Even at the time of th
e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as
Prince Charles pointed
 out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although
countries put their name
s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and
bio-diversity (the variety of 
the world's wildlife), many have found
difficulty in drawing up realistic pl
ans for curbing environmental damage.
The omission has also allowed the noti
on of 'sustainable development' to
remain confused. That principle, which go
vernments attending Rio pledged to
observe, does not define whether resource
s are to be preserved at a certain
level for each person or simply for each 
country. Countries with rapidly
growing populations will find it almost impo
ssible to preserve resources -
however defined - on a per capita basis.
But 
although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably
larg
e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago.
Prominent among 
1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of
industrialists,
 scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food,
energy and raw m
aterials would run out. Since then, food production has
increased while popu
lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many
countries now looks li
ke one of the development successes of the past two
decades. Many Asian and 
Latin American countries have had particular success
in bringing down the ra
te of population growth.
India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the 
average number of
children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of 
about four. That
figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de
cades - although
still higher than the figure of just over two children per 
woman which would
maintain a static population.
However, across much of sub-
Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been
running at more than six children 
per woman. Demographers studying why some
countries have had more success th
an others point out that there is no
straightforward formula to apply. Longs
tanding assumptions that as a country
develops, its birth rate falls, fail t
o explain some of the patterns now
observed.
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a
nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls
in family size despite relativ
ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have
maintained fertility rates of
 more than three children per woman during a
period of fast economic growth.
 Instead, demographers are having to put
together a more complex picture, in
 which access to contraception, the level
of female education and the availa
bility of jobs for women all play a part.
There has also been international 
concern about the measures sometimes
employed to restrain birth rates, parti
cularly in China, which has fiercely
applied limits on family size. The scal
e of China's problem is undeniable:
China now has nearly a quarter of the wo
rld's population on about 7 per cent
of the world's arable land.
According t
o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to
about 1.9 f
rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as
western Europe
an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the
measures used by 
the Chinese government - including limiting urban families
to one child - ha
ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is
infringing human rights
.
Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav
e
outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn
agai
nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right.
They p
oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put
severe
 pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment.
They 
also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised
countries an
d the steady fall in the average age of the population in
developing countri
es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years
old currently outnu
mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North
America. But pensioners wi
ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North
America for the first time, t
he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has
said.
Mr David Coleman, a demo
grapher at Oxford University, says that
environmental degradation, pressure 
on resources and the search for jobs
will cause industrialised countries to 
be confronted with an unprecedented
influx of immigrants from poorer countri
es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of
UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures -
 even taking account only those
who have already been born. More than 2m imm
igrants are believed to have
entered both Europe and North America over the 
past two years alone. So far,
Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken 
the brunt of Russians, gypsies
and Romanians from the east, but political ch
aos in Russia could intensify
westward migration.
Governments and internatio
nal agencies for aid, development and the
environment may still be coy about
 addressing issues of curbing population
growth. But they will increasingly 
find the subject unavoidable. Worries
about consumption of resources and deg
radation of the environment are
well-established. But migration may be the f
actor which finally makes
countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de
veloping - face these
questions.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Dev
eloped Countries.
    XMZ  Africa.
    INZ  India, Asia.
    CNZ  China, Asi
a.
    XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>
P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Survey YOU Pag
e 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 121 ==============================================
Transaction #:    121       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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Selec. Rec. #:      4

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-12411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA4DIAAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
131
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2
): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
According to United Nations
 forecasts, the population of the world is likely
to double - to more than 1
0bn people - by the middle of the next century.
This will be one of the bigg
est forces shaping living standards of future
generations. Although growth w
ill take place almost entirely in developing
countries, few countries will b
e able to insulate themselves from the
effects.
However, population growth w
as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in
1992, although it is the source 
of increasing pressure on natural resources
and the environment in many regi
ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity
of the issue was so great - provo
king debates about differing cultural and
religious values - that it would f
rustrate attempts to reach agreement on
other fronts.
Even at the time of th
e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as
Prince Charles pointed
 out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although
countries put their name
s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and
bio-diversity (the variety of 
the world's wildlife), many have found
difficulty in drawing up realistic pl
ans for curbing environmental damage.
The omission has also allowed the noti
on of 'sustainable development' to
remain confused. That principle, which go
vernments attending Rio pledged to
observe, does not define whether resource
s are to be preserved at a certain
level for each person or simply for each 
country. Countries with rapidly
growing populations will find it almost impo
ssible to preserve resources -
however defined - on a per capita basis.
But 
although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably
larg
e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago.
Prominent among 
1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of
industrialists,
 scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food,
energy and raw m
aterials would run out. Since then, food production has
increased while popu
lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many
countries now looks li
ke one of the development successes of the past two
decades. Many Asian and 
Latin American countries have had particular success
in bringing down the ra
te of population growth.
India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the 
average number of
children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of 
about four. That
figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de
cades - although
still higher than the figure of just over two children per 
woman which would
maintain a static population.
However, across much of sub-
Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been
running at more than six children 
per woman. Demographers studying why some
countries have had more success th
an others point out that there is no
straightforward formula to apply. Longs
tanding assumptions that as a country
develops, its birth rate falls, fail t
o explain some of the patterns now
observed.
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a
nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls
in family size despite relativ
ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have
maintained fertility rates of
 more than three children per woman during a
period of fast economic growth.
 Instead, demographers are having to put
together a more complex picture, in
 which access to contraception, the level
of female education and the availa
bility of jobs for women all play a part.
There has also been international 
concern about the measures sometimes
employed to restrain birth rates, parti
cularly in China, which has fiercely
applied limits on family size. The scal
e of China's problem is undeniable:
China now has nearly a quarter of the wo
rld's population on about 7 per cent
of the world's arable land.
According t
o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to
about 1.9 f
rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as
western Europe
an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the
measures used by 
the Chinese government - including limiting urban families
to one child - ha
ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is
infringing human rights
.
Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav
e
outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn
agai
nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right.
They p
oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put
severe
 pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment.
They 
also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised
countries an
d the steady fall in the average age of the population in
developing countri
es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years
old currently outnu
mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North
America. But pensioners wi
ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North
America for the first time, t
he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has
said.
Mr David Coleman, a demo
grapher at Oxford University, says that
environmental degradation, pressure 
on resources and the search for jobs
will cause industrialised countries to 
be confronted with an unprecedented
influx of immigrants from poorer countri
es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of
UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures -
 even taking account only those
who have already been born. More than 2m imm
igrants are believed to have
entered both Europe and North America over the 
past two years alone. So far,
Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken 
the brunt of Russians, gypsies
and Romanians from the east, but political ch
aos in Russia could intensify
westward migration.
Governments and internatio
nal agencies for aid, development and the
environment may still be coy about
 addressing issues of curbing population
growth. But they will increasingly 
find the subject unavoidable. Worries
about consumption of resources and deg
radation of the environment are
well-established. But migration may be the f
actor which finally makes
countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de
veloping - face these
questions.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Dev
eloped Countries.
    XMZ  Africa.
    INZ  India, Asia.
    CNZ  China, Asi
a.
    XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>
P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Survey YOU Pag
e 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 122 ==============================================
Transaction #:    122       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:39:34
Selec. Rec. #:      5

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-892</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DC1AGAB2FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93032
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi
gration has focused attention on soaring world population </HEADLINE>
<BYLIN
E>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Industrialised countries will be co
nfronted with an unprecedented influx of
would-be immigrants in the next few
 decades, putting their economies under
enormous pressure. That is the messa
ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik,
director of the United Nations Population F
und (UNFPA), to the UN conference
on European population this week in Geneva
.
More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North

America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and
Czechoslov
akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and
Romanians from the
 east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward
migration. This is
 quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik
warned.
Migration,
 many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the
factor spur
ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the
world's soaring p
opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's
Earth Summit in Ri
o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of
the natural environ
ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda.
The Vatican's resistanc
e to including population in the talks was
unsurprising, but the Philippines
 and some Middle Eastern countries with
high birth rates also proved obstruc
tive. Environmental pressure groups,
wary of telling developing countries ho
w to manage their affairs, were also
quiet.
Such reticence is difficult to u
nderstand in the light of UN population
projections - one puts the world's p
opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its
present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M
r Miroslav Macura, demographer with
the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r
eminded the conference that the
total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i
f fertility rates turned out to
differ even marginally from the model's assu
mptions.
Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing

countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American

countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two
de
cades.
India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi
ldren
per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third 
in the
last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family
 size,
has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children 
per
woman which maintains a static population.
But across much of sub-Sahara
n Africa, fertility rates have been running at
more than 6. Recent studies, 
although based on less than perfect data,
suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti
ng only 1 percentage point off population
growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren
t famine, still has a fertility rate of
about 3.
According to Mr Fred Sai, p
resident of the International Planned Parenthood
Federation and chairman of 
Ghana's population council, African countries now
recognise that family plan
ning is a tool for health improvement. But the
answers to restraining a high
 growth rate of population are not clear-cut.
Recent evidence shows that the
 traditional assumption that family size falls
with economic progress does n
ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Bulgaria and Kerala in India have 
all shown sharp falls in family size
despite relatively low prosperity, whil
e the Gulf states have maintained
fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe
riod of sharply rising wealth.
'For every level of prosperity, you can find 
an enormous range of fertility
rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni
versity. 'The things that
really bring down family size are more complex, to
 do with culture and
education'.
Contraceptive programmes do help though, th
e UNFPA, maintains: it called
last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5
bn spent worldwide on family
planning programmes to double by 2000.
But even
 if such measures are successful, the population of developing
countries wil
l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries.
Fertility rates i
n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per
woman - the UK rate
 is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below
West German levels of
 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the
Federal Population Inst
itute of Germany.
The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children
 in Europe and
North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c
urrently
outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t
he number
of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, 
and could
reach 310m in 2025.
The idea that any resulting labour gap could b
e filled by immigration is
disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p
er cent of the potential
workforce in western Europe is actually working, an
d there is plenty of
slack.'
Past immigration can adversely affect the host 
country, he added. The
availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind
 Europe's relative lack
of investment in high-technology industries, he said
.
It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of

migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve

standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe

does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg
e
to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences.
 -----------
-------------------------------------
Immigration pressure on developed coun
tries
from growth in developing countries' population
 ---------------------
---------------------------
                     Pop in   Increase
(million)
              1991   by 2005
 ----------------------------------------------
--
Western Europe          379       4
Eastern Europe          124      11
E
x-Soviet Union         209      10
US                      253      81
Medit
erranean*          186     158
Latin America           451     289
Tropical 
Africa         531     826
South Asia            1,206     920
 ------------
------------------------------------
Source: D Coleman, Oxford University
*s
outh-east Mediterranean
 ------------------------------------------------
</
TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Developed Countries.
</CN>
<XX>
Indust
ries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>G
OVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge 9 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 123 ==============================================
Transaction #:    123       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:40:43
Selec. Rec. #:      5

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   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-892</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DC1AGAB2FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93032
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi
gration has focused attention on soaring world population </HEADLINE>
<BYLIN
E>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Industrialised countries will be co
nfronted with an unprecedented influx of
would-be immigrants in the next few
 decades, putting their economies under
enormous pressure. That is the messa
ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik,
director of the United Nations Population F
und (UNFPA), to the UN conference
on European population this week in Geneva
.
More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North

America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and
Czechoslov
akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and
Romanians from the
 east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward
migration. This is
 quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik
warned.
Migration,
 many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the
factor spur
ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the
world's soaring p
opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's
Earth Summit in Ri
o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of
the natural environ
ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda.
The Vatican's resistanc
e to including population in the talks was
unsurprising, but the Philippines
 and some Middle Eastern countries with
high birth rates also proved obstruc
tive. Environmental pressure groups,
wary of telling developing countries ho
w to manage their affairs, were also
quiet.
Such reticence is difficult to u
nderstand in the light of UN population
projections - one puts the world's p
opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its
present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M
r Miroslav Macura, demographer with
the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r
eminded the conference that the
total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i
f fertility rates turned out to
differ even marginally from the model's assu
mptions.
Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing

countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American

countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two
de
cades.
India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi
ldren
per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third 
in the
last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family
 size,
has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children 
per
woman which maintains a static population.
But across much of sub-Sahara
n Africa, fertility rates have been running at
more than 6. Recent studies, 
although based on less than perfect data,
suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti
ng only 1 percentage point off population
growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren
t famine, still has a fertility rate of
about 3.
According to Mr Fred Sai, p
resident of the International Planned Parenthood
Federation and chairman of 
Ghana's population council, African countries now
recognise that family plan
ning is a tool for health improvement. But the
answers to restraining a high
 growth rate of population are not clear-cut.
Recent evidence shows that the
 traditional assumption that family size falls
with economic progress does n
ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Bulgaria and Kerala in India have 
all shown sharp falls in family size
despite relatively low prosperity, whil
e the Gulf states have maintained
fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe
riod of sharply rising wealth.
'For every level of prosperity, you can find 
an enormous range of fertility
rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni
versity. 'The things that
really bring down family size are more complex, to
 do with culture and
education'.
Contraceptive programmes do help though, th
e UNFPA, maintains: it called
last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5
bn spent worldwide on family
planning programmes to double by 2000.
But even
 if such measures are successful, the population of developing
countries wil
l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries.
Fertility rates i
n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per
woman - the UK rate
 is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below
West German levels of
 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the
Federal Population Inst
itute of Germany.
The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children
 in Europe and
North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c
urrently
outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t
he number
of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, 
and could
reach 310m in 2025.
The idea that any resulting labour gap could b
e filled by immigration is
disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p
er cent of the potential
workforce in western Europe is actually working, an
d there is plenty of
slack.'
Past immigration can adversely affect the host 
country, he added. The
availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind
 Europe's relative lack
of investment in high-technology industries, he said
.
It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of

migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve

standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe

does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg
e
to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences.
 -----------
-------------------------------------
Immigration pressure on developed coun
tries
from growth in developing countries' population
 ---------------------
---------------------------
                     Pop in   Increase
(million)
              1991   by 2005
 ----------------------------------------------
--
Western Europe          379       4
Eastern Europe          124      11
E
x-Soviet Union         209      10
US                      253      81
Medit
erranean*          186     158
Latin America           451     289
Tropical 
Africa         531     826
South Asia            1,206     920
 ------------
------------------------------------
Source: D Coleman, Oxford University
*s
outh-east Mediterranean
 ------------------------------------------------
</
TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Developed Countries.
</CN>
<XX>
Indust
ries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>G
OVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge 9 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 124 ==============================================
Transaction #:    124       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-892</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DC1AGAB2FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93032
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi
gration has focused attention on soaring world population </HEADLINE>
<BYLIN
E>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Industrialised countries will be co
nfronted with an unprecedented influx of
would-be immigrants in the next few
 decades, putting their economies under
enormous pressure. That is the messa
ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik,
director of the United Nations Population F
und (UNFPA), to the UN conference
on European population this week in Geneva
.
More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North

America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and
Czechoslov
akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and
Romanians from the
 east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward
migration. This is
 quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik
warned.
Migration,
 many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the
factor spur
ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the
world's soaring p
opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's
Earth Summit in Ri
o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of
the natural environ
ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda.
The Vatican's resistanc
e to including population in the talks was
unsurprising, but the Philippines
 and some Middle Eastern countries with
high birth rates also proved obstruc
tive. Environmental pressure groups,
wary of telling developing countries ho
w to manage their affairs, were also
quiet.
Such reticence is difficult to u
nderstand in the light of UN population
projections - one puts the world's p
opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its
present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M
r Miroslav Macura, demographer with
the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r
eminded the conference that the
total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i
f fertility rates turned out to
differ even marginally from the model's assu
mptions.
Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing

countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American

countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two
de
cades.
India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi
ldren
per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third 
in the
last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family
 size,
has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children 
per
woman which maintains a static population.
But across much of sub-Sahara
n Africa, fertility rates have been running at
more than 6. Recent studies, 
although based on less than perfect data,
suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti
ng only 1 percentage point off population
growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren
t famine, still has a fertility rate of
about 3.
According to Mr Fred Sai, p
resident of the International Planned Parenthood
Federation and chairman of 
Ghana's population council, African countries now
recognise that family plan
ning is a tool for health improvement. But the
answers to restraining a high
 growth rate of population are not clear-cut.
Recent evidence shows that the
 traditional assumption that family size falls
with economic progress does n
ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Bulgaria and Kerala in India have 
all shown sharp falls in family size
despite relatively low prosperity, whil
e the Gulf states have maintained
fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe
riod of sharply rising wealth.
'For every level of prosperity, you can find 
an enormous range of fertility
rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni
versity. 'The things that
really bring down family size are more complex, to
 do with culture and
education'.
Contraceptive programmes do help though, th
e UNFPA, maintains: it called
last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5
bn spent worldwide on family
planning programmes to double by 2000.
But even
 if such measures are successful, the population of developing
countries wil
l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries.
Fertility rates i
n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per
woman - the UK rate
 is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below
West German levels of
 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the
Federal Population Inst
itute of Germany.
The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children
 in Europe and
North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c
urrently
outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t
he number
of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, 
and could
reach 310m in 2025.
The idea that any resulting labour gap could b
e filled by immigration is
disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p
er cent of the potential
workforce in western Europe is actually working, an
d there is plenty of
slack.'
Past immigration can adversely affect the host 
country, he added. The
availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind
 Europe's relative lack
of investment in high-technology industries, he said
.
It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of

migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve

standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe

does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg
e
to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences.
 -----------
-------------------------------------
Immigration pressure on developed coun
tries
from growth in developing countries' population
 ---------------------
---------------------------
                     Pop in   Increase
(million)
              1991   by 2005
 ----------------------------------------------
--
Western Europe          379       4
Eastern Europe          124      11
E
x-Soviet Union         209      10
US                      253      81
Medit
erranean*          186     158
Latin America           451     289
Tropical 
Africa         531     826
South Asia            1,206     920
 ------------
------------------------------------
Source: D Coleman, Oxford University
*s
outh-east Mediterranean
 ------------------------------------------------
</
TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Developed Countries.
</CN>
<XX>
Indust
ries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>G
OVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge 9 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 125 ==============================================
Transaction #:    125       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-554</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CI1B0AAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>92092
8
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern
 Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By MARTIN WOLF </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THERE ARE, i
t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this
aspersion on
 the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is
certainly justifi
ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes
of eastern and c
entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments
of control and p
ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure,
the legacy of th
at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present.
Nevertheless, statistics a
re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe
is a region with a signific
ant economic potential that is undergoing an
unparalleled transformation. Th
is week's International Economic Indicators
do, therefore, contain the first
 in a quarterly series on central and
eastern Europe, derived from the Easte
rn European Statistical Bulletin
published by Business Strategies.
What thes
e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial
economies.
 These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example,
fell by 45 
per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the
chart. The decl
ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal
Republic, though 
smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal
standards.
Equally ev
ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level
has risen no
 less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has
halted its 
hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better
still. In the la
tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off
adjustment revealin
g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an
ongoing inflationary pro
cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile,
Bulgaria and Romania are both
 still in the grip of soaring prices.
What such figures reveal is suggestive
. What they conceal is vital. They
conceal, for example, the fact most goods
 were unavailable at their notional
prices before liberalisation, at least w
ithout queueing for hours.
Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the 
table hides the fact that
many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a
ctually idle.
The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i
s the national
state statistical offices, which were originally an integral 
part of the
centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat
ed with the
old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel 
is the
central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio
n. The
third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W
orld
Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Each of these so
urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But
the most importan
t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on
which everyone m
ust ultimately rely.
Three big problems arise.
First, national accounts were
 historically based on the concept of net
material product (NMP), which excl
udes most of the service sector of these
economies. The GDP estimates now pr
ovided do not yet conform to western
systems of national accounts, though ef
forts are being made in this
direction.
Second, many indicators are distorte
d by the use of artificial exchange
rates.
Third and perhaps most important,
 the burgeoning private sector is still not
included in national accounts.
D
espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on
t
he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary
adju
stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get
bette
r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland
and th
e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery.
Yet these recoveries
 are vulnerable, as much to political as economic
events. Just how vulnerabl
e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR
into what are soon expecte
d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak
Republic, this division being cert
ain to damage the initial economic
prospects of both, but particularly of Sl
ovakia.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
This table p
resents the major economic statistics currently published on
six east Europe
an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic
product (GDP) or net 
material product (NMP) are in billions of
USDollars. Trade figures are in mi
llions of USDollars. All are converted
from national currency units (NCU) at
 the exchange rate shown (NCU per
Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP
 or NMP growth is given as an
annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly
 values for consumer
prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo
rm with 1991=100.
Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy
ment rate is
shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force.
 ----------
-------------------------------------------------------------
BULGARIA
 ----
-------------------------------------------------------------------
        
                   Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP 
    Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ----------------------------
-------------------------------------------
1988               19.2      2.5
         -840         245       7,212
1989               33.4     -1.6      
 -1,306         739      11,529
1990               35.7     -9.1       -1,13
5         193       8,302
1991                8.3    -16.7         -887     
    734       3,443
1st qtr. 1991        na     na        -411         -69  
       514
2nd qtr. 1991        na     na        -239         182         89
8
3rd qtr. 1991        na     na         133         378         897
4th qtr
. 1991        na     na        -370         142         969
1st qtr. 1992   
     na     na
2nd qtr. 1992        na     na
 -----------------------------
------------------------------------------
                Consumer  Industr
ial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages    
 Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988                na    29.2        136.8   
      0.0        2.00
1989                na    30.9        135.3         0.
0        1.19
1990                na    37.4        112.6         0.8       
 1.27
1991              100.0    100.0        100.0         7.9       16.66

1st qtr. 1991       59.5     55.2        110.8         3.8       10.26
2nd q
tr. 1991       95.5     80.1         99.3         6.5       17.78
3rd qtr. 1
991      114.6    101.6         89.9         9.5       17.93
4th qtr. 1991  
    130.4    162.9        100.1        11.6       20.68
1st qtr. 1992       
        183.6         84.7        14.0       23.66
2nd qtr. 1992       73.1

March 1992          na     na       -27.1         na
April               na 
    na       -27.6         na
May                 na     na       -26.4     
    na
June                na     na       -25.1         na
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
CZECH REPUBLIC
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
       
                    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP
     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ---------------------------
--------------------------------------------
1988               26.8      2.
3          -59         316      15,242
1989               26.6      0.7     
     439         188      14,454
1990               24.4     -1.5       -1,1
05      -1,279      11,922
1991                       -19.2          328    
     926      10,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412  
     1,854
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835

3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 
1991       na     na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992      
 na     na         295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na
         473
 --------------------------------------------------------------
---------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exc
hange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
198
8                na    79.5        135.3         0.0       14.36
1989       
        58.2     81.3        137.0         0.0       15.05
1990             
  63.8     83.8        132.2         0.7       17.95
1991              100.0
    100.0        100.0         2.8       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      92.3     8
9.8          na        1.4       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.9     98.0     
     na        2.3       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     102.6     97.8          na 
       3.4       30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.1    115.7          na        4
.0       29.20
1st qtr. 1992     106.9      na                     4.1      
 28.77
2nd qtr. 1992                             na                  28.77
M
arch 1992         11.2      na       -18.4         3.7       29.16
April    
           9.2      na                     3.2       29.06
May              
   7.7      na                     2.9       28.84
June                     
    na                               28.42
 --------------------------------
---------------------------------------
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
 -------------------
----------------------------------------------------
                       
    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP     Growth     
 Balance     Balance    Exports
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
1988               11.8      2.3          -59  
       316      15,242
1989               11.9      0.7          439        
 188      14,454
1990               10.3     -1.5       -1,105      -1,279  
    11,922
1991              -19.2                   328         926      10
,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412       1,854
2nd q
tr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835
3rd qtr. 1991  
     na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 1991       na   
  na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992       na     na      
   295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na         473
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    80.2        140.9         0.0       14.36
1989               56.2    
 82.0        139.8         0.0       15.05
1990               62.0     84.6 
       134.0         1.5       17.95
1991              100.0    100.0       
 100.0         7.1       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      91.7     90.5          na 
       3.0       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.4     96.7          na        5
.4       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     103.1     98.0          na        8.7      
 30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.5    117.5          na       11.1       29.20
1
st qtr. 1992     107.9                   na       12.6       28.77
2nd qtr. 
1992                             na                  28.77
March 1992       
  10.5      na       -22.2        12.3       29.16
April               9.7  
    na       -18.4        11.8       29.06
May                 7.8      na  
                  11.3       28.84
June                         na          
                     28.42
 ------------------------------------------------
-----------------------
HUNGARY
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
                           Real GDP     Current
     Visible
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    
Exports
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
1988               27.9      2.6         -807         626       9,999
1
989               29.3      3.7       -1,437         809       9,672
1990   
            32.9     -3.9          127         929       9,550
1991         
                             267      -1,635      10,729
1st qtr. 1991      
 na     na         159         599       2,171
2nd atr. 1991       na     na
        -271      -1,383       2,109
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         3
91        -604       2,312
4th qtr. 1991       na     na         -12        
-173       4,089
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         428         383      
 2,430
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na                    -451       2,687
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    44.5        144.9         0.3       50.41
1989                na    5
1.9        139.9         0.5       59.07
1990               73.3     63.8   
     128.1         1.1       63.21
1991              100.0    100.0        1
00.0         na      74.74
1st qtr. 1991      91.1     85.8        112.7    
     na      70.26
2nd qtr. 1991      99.2     95.3        102.5         na 
     75.91
3rd qtr. 1991     102.9    105.4         94.8         na      76.
35
4th qtr. 1991     106.8    113.5         89.8         na      76.49
1st q
tr. 1992     114.4    111.4         89.3         9.5       78.12
2nd qtr. 19
92     119.8    119.1         87.5        10.9       79.22
March 1992       
  24.7      na       -32.1         na      79.64
April              22.9    
  na       -30.0         na      79.98
May                22.6      na      
 -24.9         na      79.28
June                na                -19.9    
     na      78.46
 --------------------------------------------------------
---------------
POLAND
 ----------------------------------------------------
-------------------
                           Real GDP     Current     Visi
ble
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1988
               68.7      4.7         -275       1,717      13,944
1989      
         82.2      0.5       -1,586       3,204      13,537
1990            
   63.9    -11.6          668       5,466      13,626
1991                  
                 -1,359         -22      14,971
1st qtr. 1991       na     n
a      -1,134        -389       2,851
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na        -
531         146       3,504
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         533       
  112       3,192
4th qtr. 1991       na     na        -227          62     
  4,814
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         133
2nd qtr. 1992       na    
 na
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
   
              Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
1988        
        2.4      3.3        164.9         na        431
1989                
8.6     12.8        164.0         na      1,439
1990               58.7     
59.4        124.4         5.7       9,500
1991              100.0    100.0  
      100.0        11.8      10,576
1st qtr. 1991      86.9     92.4        
109.6         7.0       9,500
2nd qtr. 1991      97.0     92.9         98.5 
        8.0      10,394
3rd qtr. 1991     103.0     97.3         94.3       
 10.1      11,298
4th qtr. 1991     113.0    117.4         97.2        11.4 
     11,112
1st qtr. 1992     127.7    121.9         99.9        12.2      1
2,169
2nd qtr. 1992     12.4                                         13,675

March 1992        42.4      33.3         -0.8        12.1      13,443
April 
            43.8                    3.5        12.2      13,621
May         
                              2.8        12.3      13,703
June              
                                   12.6      13,701
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
ROMANIA
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
                      
     Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP     Growth    
  Balance     Balance    Exports
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988               60.0     -0.5        3,595 
      4,288      13,866
1989               53.5     -5.8        2,864       
2,117      12,130
1990               37.6     -7.4       -1,656      -3,839 
      6,375
1991                                   -1,236      -1,001       
4,237
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -510        -545       1,032
2nd 
qtr. 1991       na     na        -353        -314         987
3rd qtr. 1991 
      na     na        -140        -175         928
4th qtr. 1991       na  
   na        -233        -186       1,149
1st qtr. 1992       na     na     
               -361         845
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na               
     -329       1,161
 -----------------------------------------------------
------------------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unempl
oy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate 
    Rate
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
1988                na    38.7        152.5         0.0       14.28
19
89                na    39.9        149.0         0.0       14.92
1990      
          na    41.8        127.7         0.0       22.43
1991              
100.0    100.0        100.0         3.1       76.39
1st qtr. 1991      61.7 
    53.4        100.1         1.3       34.84
2nd qtr. 1991      86.6     95
.2        111.4         2.7       60.29
3rd qtr. 1991     107.5    111.2    
    100.3         3.5       61.24
4th qtr. 1991     144.3    140.1         8
8.2         4.7      149.18
1st qtr. 1992     216.9    182.3         89.3   
      6.9      196.84
2nd qtr. 1992     275.0    235.3         81.5         
         210.89
March 1992       *264.4   *275.3        -15.7         na    
 198.00
April            *201.5   *149.1        -24.5         na     198.40

May              *221.7   *134.1        -28.9         na     223.60
June    
         *158.9                 -27.1         na
 --------------------------
---------------------------------------------
* = NB annual percentage chang
es, not index nos. Notes: Latest
population estimates (end 1991, millions) -
 Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic
10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan
d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP
estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di
ffers from GDP
primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for
 the
current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible

balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in
italic
s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in
1990 was 24.
2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total
imports). Sources: Stat
e statistical offices and central banks, IMF,
World Bank. Data supplied by B
usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959)
 -East European Statistical Bullet
in, available quarterly. Not all
series are strictly comparable across count
ries. For precise definitions
and any further information please refer to BS
L.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 126 ==============================================
Transaction #:    126       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-554</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CI1B0AAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>92092
8
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern
 Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By MARTIN WOLF </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THERE ARE, i
t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this
aspersion on
 the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is
certainly justifi
ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes
of eastern and c
entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments
of control and p
ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure,
the legacy of th
at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present.
Nevertheless, statistics a
re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe
is a region with a signific
ant economic potential that is undergoing an
unparalleled transformation. Th
is week's International Economic Indicators
do, therefore, contain the first
 in a quarterly series on central and
eastern Europe, derived from the Easte
rn European Statistical Bulletin
published by Business Strategies.
What thes
e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial
economies.
 These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example,
fell by 45 
per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the
chart. The decl
ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal
Republic, though 
smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal
standards.
Equally ev
ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level
has risen no
 less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has
halted its 
hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better
still. In the la
tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off
adjustment revealin
g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an
ongoing inflationary pro
cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile,
Bulgaria and Romania are both
 still in the grip of soaring prices.
What such figures reveal is suggestive
. What they conceal is vital. They
conceal, for example, the fact most goods
 were unavailable at their notional
prices before liberalisation, at least w
ithout queueing for hours.
Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the 
table hides the fact that
many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a
ctually idle.
The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i
s the national
state statistical offices, which were originally an integral 
part of the
centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat
ed with the
old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel 
is the
central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio
n. The
third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W
orld
Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Each of these so
urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But
the most importan
t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on
which everyone m
ust ultimately rely.
Three big problems arise.
First, national accounts were
 historically based on the concept of net
material product (NMP), which excl
udes most of the service sector of these
economies. The GDP estimates now pr
ovided do not yet conform to western
systems of national accounts, though ef
forts are being made in this
direction.
Second, many indicators are distorte
d by the use of artificial exchange
rates.
Third and perhaps most important,
 the burgeoning private sector is still not
included in national accounts.
D
espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on
t
he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary
adju
stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get
bette
r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland
and th
e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery.
Yet these recoveries
 are vulnerable, as much to political as economic
events. Just how vulnerabl
e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR
into what are soon expecte
d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak
Republic, this division being cert
ain to damage the initial economic
prospects of both, but particularly of Sl
ovakia.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
This table p
resents the major economic statistics currently published on
six east Europe
an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic
product (GDP) or net 
material product (NMP) are in billions of
USDollars. Trade figures are in mi
llions of USDollars. All are converted
from national currency units (NCU) at
 the exchange rate shown (NCU per
Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP
 or NMP growth is given as an
annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly
 values for consumer
prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo
rm with 1991=100.
Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy
ment rate is
shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force.
 ----------
-------------------------------------------------------------
BULGARIA
 ----
-------------------------------------------------------------------
        
                   Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP 
    Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ----------------------------
-------------------------------------------
1988               19.2      2.5
         -840         245       7,212
1989               33.4     -1.6      
 -1,306         739      11,529
1990               35.7     -9.1       -1,13
5         193       8,302
1991                8.3    -16.7         -887     
    734       3,443
1st qtr. 1991        na     na        -411         -69  
       514
2nd qtr. 1991        na     na        -239         182         89
8
3rd qtr. 1991        na     na         133         378         897
4th qtr
. 1991        na     na        -370         142         969
1st qtr. 1992   
     na     na
2nd qtr. 1992        na     na
 -----------------------------
------------------------------------------
                Consumer  Industr
ial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages    
 Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988                na    29.2        136.8   
      0.0        2.00
1989                na    30.9        135.3         0.
0        1.19
1990                na    37.4        112.6         0.8       
 1.27
1991              100.0    100.0        100.0         7.9       16.66

1st qtr. 1991       59.5     55.2        110.8         3.8       10.26
2nd q
tr. 1991       95.5     80.1         99.3         6.5       17.78
3rd qtr. 1
991      114.6    101.6         89.9         9.5       17.93
4th qtr. 1991  
    130.4    162.9        100.1        11.6       20.68
1st qtr. 1992       
        183.6         84.7        14.0       23.66
2nd qtr. 1992       73.1

March 1992          na     na       -27.1         na
April               na 
    na       -27.6         na
May                 na     na       -26.4     
    na
June                na     na       -25.1         na
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
CZECH REPUBLIC
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
       
                    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP
     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ---------------------------
--------------------------------------------
1988               26.8      2.
3          -59         316      15,242
1989               26.6      0.7     
     439         188      14,454
1990               24.4     -1.5       -1,1
05      -1,279      11,922
1991                       -19.2          328    
     926      10,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412  
     1,854
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835

3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 
1991       na     na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992      
 na     na         295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na
         473
 --------------------------------------------------------------
---------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exc
hange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
198
8                na    79.5        135.3         0.0       14.36
1989       
        58.2     81.3        137.0         0.0       15.05
1990             
  63.8     83.8        132.2         0.7       17.95
1991              100.0
    100.0        100.0         2.8       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      92.3     8
9.8          na        1.4       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.9     98.0     
     na        2.3       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     102.6     97.8          na 
       3.4       30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.1    115.7          na        4
.0       29.20
1st qtr. 1992     106.9      na                     4.1      
 28.77
2nd qtr. 1992                             na                  28.77
M
arch 1992         11.2      na       -18.4         3.7       29.16
April    
           9.2      na                     3.2       29.06
May              
   7.7      na                     2.9       28.84
June                     
    na                               28.42
 --------------------------------
---------------------------------------
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
 -------------------
----------------------------------------------------
                       
    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP     Growth     
 Balance     Balance    Exports
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
1988               11.8      2.3          -59  
       316      15,242
1989               11.9      0.7          439        
 188      14,454
1990               10.3     -1.5       -1,105      -1,279  
    11,922
1991              -19.2                   328         926      10
,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412       1,854
2nd q
tr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835
3rd qtr. 1991  
     na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 1991       na   
  na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992       na     na      
   295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na         473
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    80.2        140.9         0.0       14.36
1989               56.2    
 82.0        139.8         0.0       15.05
1990               62.0     84.6 
       134.0         1.5       17.95
1991              100.0    100.0       
 100.0         7.1       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      91.7     90.5          na 
       3.0       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.4     96.7          na        5
.4       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     103.1     98.0          na        8.7      
 30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.5    117.5          na       11.1       29.20
1
st qtr. 1992     107.9                   na       12.6       28.77
2nd qtr. 
1992                             na                  28.77
March 1992       
  10.5      na       -22.2        12.3       29.16
April               9.7  
    na       -18.4        11.8       29.06
May                 7.8      na  
                  11.3       28.84
June                         na          
                     28.42
 ------------------------------------------------
-----------------------
HUNGARY
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
                           Real GDP     Current
     Visible
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    
Exports
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
1988               27.9      2.6         -807         626       9,999
1
989               29.3      3.7       -1,437         809       9,672
1990   
            32.9     -3.9          127         929       9,550
1991         
                             267      -1,635      10,729
1st qtr. 1991      
 na     na         159         599       2,171
2nd atr. 1991       na     na
        -271      -1,383       2,109
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         3
91        -604       2,312
4th qtr. 1991       na     na         -12        
-173       4,089
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         428         383      
 2,430
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na                    -451       2,687
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    44.5        144.9         0.3       50.41
1989                na    5
1.9        139.9         0.5       59.07
1990               73.3     63.8   
     128.1         1.1       63.21
1991              100.0    100.0        1
00.0         na      74.74
1st qtr. 1991      91.1     85.8        112.7    
     na      70.26
2nd qtr. 1991      99.2     95.3        102.5         na 
     75.91
3rd qtr. 1991     102.9    105.4         94.8         na      76.
35
4th qtr. 1991     106.8    113.5         89.8         na      76.49
1st q
tr. 1992     114.4    111.4         89.3         9.5       78.12
2nd qtr. 19
92     119.8    119.1         87.5        10.9       79.22
March 1992       
  24.7      na       -32.1         na      79.64
April              22.9    
  na       -30.0         na      79.98
May                22.6      na      
 -24.9         na      79.28
June                na                -19.9    
     na      78.46
 --------------------------------------------------------
---------------
POLAND
 ----------------------------------------------------
-------------------
                           Real GDP     Current     Visi
ble
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1988
               68.7      4.7         -275       1,717      13,944
1989      
         82.2      0.5       -1,586       3,204      13,537
1990            
   63.9    -11.6          668       5,466      13,626
1991                  
                 -1,359         -22      14,971
1st qtr. 1991       na     n
a      -1,134        -389       2,851
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na        -
531         146       3,504
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         533       
  112       3,192
4th qtr. 1991       na     na        -227          62     
  4,814
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         133
2nd qtr. 1992       na    
 na
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
   
              Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
1988        
        2.4      3.3        164.9         na        431
1989                
8.6     12.8        164.0         na      1,439
1990               58.7     
59.4        124.4         5.7       9,500
1991              100.0    100.0  
      100.0        11.8      10,576
1st qtr. 1991      86.9     92.4        
109.6         7.0       9,500
2nd qtr. 1991      97.0     92.9         98.5 
        8.0      10,394
3rd qtr. 1991     103.0     97.3         94.3       
 10.1      11,298
4th qtr. 1991     113.0    117.4         97.2        11.4 
     11,112
1st qtr. 1992     127.7    121.9         99.9        12.2      1
2,169
2nd qtr. 1992     12.4                                         13,675

March 1992        42.4      33.3         -0.8        12.1      13,443
April 
            43.8                    3.5        12.2      13,621
May         
                              2.8        12.3      13,703
June              
                                   12.6      13,701
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
ROMANIA
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
                      
     Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP     Growth    
  Balance     Balance    Exports
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988               60.0     -0.5        3,595 
      4,288      13,866
1989               53.5     -5.8        2,864       
2,117      12,130
1990               37.6     -7.4       -1,656      -3,839 
      6,375
1991                                   -1,236      -1,001       
4,237
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -510        -545       1,032
2nd 
qtr. 1991       na     na        -353        -314         987
3rd qtr. 1991 
      na     na        -140        -175         928
4th qtr. 1991       na  
   na        -233        -186       1,149
1st qtr. 1992       na     na     
               -361         845
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na               
     -329       1,161
 -----------------------------------------------------
------------------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unempl
oy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate 
    Rate
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
1988                na    38.7        152.5         0.0       14.28
19
89                na    39.9        149.0         0.0       14.92
1990      
          na    41.8        127.7         0.0       22.43
1991              
100.0    100.0        100.0         3.1       76.39
1st qtr. 1991      61.7 
    53.4        100.1         1.3       34.84
2nd qtr. 1991      86.6     95
.2        111.4         2.7       60.29
3rd qtr. 1991     107.5    111.2    
    100.3         3.5       61.24
4th qtr. 1991     144.3    140.1         8
8.2         4.7      149.18
1st qtr. 1992     216.9    182.3         89.3   
      6.9      196.84
2nd qtr. 1992     275.0    235.3         81.5         
         210.89
March 1992       *264.4   *275.3        -15.7         na    
 198.00
April            *201.5   *149.1        -24.5         na     198.40

May              *221.7   *134.1        -28.9         na     223.60
June    
         *158.9                 -27.1         na
 --------------------------
---------------------------------------------
* = NB annual percentage chang
es, not index nos. Notes: Latest
population estimates (end 1991, millions) -
 Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic
10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan
d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP
estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di
ffers from GDP
primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for
 the
current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible

balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in
italic
s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in
1990 was 24.
2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total
imports). Sources: Stat
e statistical offices and central banks, IMF,
World Bank. Data supplied by B
usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959)
 -East European Statistical Bullet
in, available quarterly. Not all
series are strictly comparable across count
ries. For precise definitions
and any further information please refer to BS
L.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 127 ==============================================
Transaction #:    127       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:41:22
Selec. Rec. #:      6

Boolean Indexes Used:

   0 Author         0 Date       0 Rectype    0 X_Corp Author    0 Call #
   0 Title          0 Language   0 X_Author   0 Uniform Title
   0 Subject        0 ISBN       0 X_Title    0 X_Subject
   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

   Button 1: and   Button 2: OR    Button 3: or 
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-554</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CI1B0AAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>92092
8
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern
 Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By MARTIN WOLF </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THERE ARE, i
t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this
aspersion on
 the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is
certainly justifi
ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes
of eastern and c
entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments
of control and p
ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure,
the legacy of th
at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present.
Nevertheless, statistics a
re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe
is a region with a signific
ant economic potential that is undergoing an
unparalleled transformation. Th
is week's International Economic Indicators
do, therefore, contain the first
 in a quarterly series on central and
eastern Europe, derived from the Easte
rn European Statistical Bulletin
published by Business Strategies.
What thes
e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial
economies.
 These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example,
fell by 45 
per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the
chart. The decl
ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal
Republic, though 
smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal
standards.
Equally ev
ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level
has risen no
 less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has
halted its 
hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better
still. In the la
tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off
adjustment revealin
g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an
ongoing inflationary pro
cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile,
Bulgaria and Romania are both
 still in the grip of soaring prices.
What such figures reveal is suggestive
. What they conceal is vital. They
conceal, for example, the fact most goods
 were unavailable at their notional
prices before liberalisation, at least w
ithout queueing for hours.
Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the 
table hides the fact that
many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a
ctually idle.
The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i
s the national
state statistical offices, which were originally an integral 
part of the
centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat
ed with the
old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel 
is the
central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio
n. The
third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W
orld
Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Each of these so
urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But
the most importan
t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on
which everyone m
ust ultimately rely.
Three big problems arise.
First, national accounts were
 historically based on the concept of net
material product (NMP), which excl
udes most of the service sector of these
economies. The GDP estimates now pr
ovided do not yet conform to western
systems of national accounts, though ef
forts are being made in this
direction.
Second, many indicators are distorte
d by the use of artificial exchange
rates.
Third and perhaps most important,
 the burgeoning private sector is still not
included in national accounts.
D
espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on
t
he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary
adju
stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get
bette
r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland
and th
e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery.
Yet these recoveries
 are vulnerable, as much to political as economic
events. Just how vulnerabl
e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR
into what are soon expecte
d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak
Republic, this division being cert
ain to damage the initial economic
prospects of both, but particularly of Sl
ovakia.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
This table p
resents the major economic statistics currently published on
six east Europe
an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic
product (GDP) or net 
material product (NMP) are in billions of
USDollars. Trade figures are in mi
llions of USDollars. All are converted
from national currency units (NCU) at
 the exchange rate shown (NCU per
Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP
 or NMP growth is given as an
annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly
 values for consumer
prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo
rm with 1991=100.
Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy
ment rate is
shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force.
 ----------
-------------------------------------------------------------
BULGARIA
 ----
-------------------------------------------------------------------
        
                   Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP 
    Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ----------------------------
-------------------------------------------
1988               19.2      2.5
         -840         245       7,212
1989               33.4     -1.6      
 -1,306         739      11,529
1990               35.7     -9.1       -1,13
5         193       8,302
1991                8.3    -16.7         -887     
    734       3,443
1st qtr. 1991        na     na        -411         -69  
       514
2nd qtr. 1991        na     na        -239         182         89
8
3rd qtr. 1991        na     na         133         378         897
4th qtr
. 1991        na     na        -370         142         969
1st qtr. 1992   
     na     na
2nd qtr. 1992        na     na
 -----------------------------
------------------------------------------
                Consumer  Industr
ial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages    
 Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988                na    29.2        136.8   
      0.0        2.00
1989                na    30.9        135.3         0.
0        1.19
1990                na    37.4        112.6         0.8       
 1.27
1991              100.0    100.0        100.0         7.9       16.66

1st qtr. 1991       59.5     55.2        110.8         3.8       10.26
2nd q
tr. 1991       95.5     80.1         99.3         6.5       17.78
3rd qtr. 1
991      114.6    101.6         89.9         9.5       17.93
4th qtr. 1991  
    130.4    162.9        100.1        11.6       20.68
1st qtr. 1992       
        183.6         84.7        14.0       23.66
2nd qtr. 1992       73.1

March 1992          na     na       -27.1         na
April               na 
    na       -27.6         na
May                 na     na       -26.4     
    na
June                na     na       -25.1         na
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
CZECH REPUBLIC
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
       
                    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP
     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 ---------------------------
--------------------------------------------
1988               26.8      2.
3          -59         316      15,242
1989               26.6      0.7     
     439         188      14,454
1990               24.4     -1.5       -1,1
05      -1,279      11,922
1991                       -19.2          328    
     926      10,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412  
     1,854
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835

3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 
1991       na     na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992      
 na     na         295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na
         473
 --------------------------------------------------------------
---------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exc
hange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
198
8                na    79.5        135.3         0.0       14.36
1989       
        58.2     81.3        137.0         0.0       15.05
1990             
  63.8     83.8        132.2         0.7       17.95
1991              100.0
    100.0        100.0         2.8       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      92.3     8
9.8          na        1.4       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.9     98.0     
     na        2.3       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     102.6     97.8          na 
       3.4       30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.1    115.7          na        4
.0       29.20
1st qtr. 1992     106.9      na                     4.1      
 28.77
2nd qtr. 1992                             na                  28.77
M
arch 1992         11.2      na       -18.4         3.7       29.16
April    
           9.2      na                     3.2       29.06
May              
   7.7      na                     2.9       28.84
June                     
    na                               28.42
 --------------------------------
---------------------------------------
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
 -------------------
----------------------------------------------------
                       
    Real NMP     Current     Visible
                    NMP     Growth     
 Balance     Balance    Exports
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
1988               11.8      2.3          -59  
       316      15,242
1989               11.9      0.7          439        
 188      14,454
1990               10.3     -1.5       -1,105      -1,279  
    11,922
1991              -19.2                   328         926      10
,895
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -473        -412       1,854
2nd q
tr. 1991       na     na          99          48       2,835
3rd qtr. 1991  
     na     na         148         660       2,753
4th qtr. 1991       na   
  na         554         589       3,408
1st qtr. 1992       na     na      
   295         554       2,102
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na         473
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    80.2        140.9         0.0       14.36
1989               56.2    
 82.0        139.8         0.0       15.05
1990               62.0     84.6 
       134.0         1.5       17.95
1991              100.0    100.0       
 100.0         7.1       29.48
1st qtr. 1991      91.7     90.5          na 
       3.0       27.88
2nd qtr. 1991     100.4     96.7          na        5
.4       30.32
3rd qtr. 1991     103.1     98.0          na        8.7      
 30.52
4th qtr. 1991     104.5    117.5          na       11.1       29.20
1
st qtr. 1992     107.9                   na       12.6       28.77
2nd qtr. 
1992                             na                  28.77
March 1992       
  10.5      na       -22.2        12.3       29.16
April               9.7  
    na       -18.4        11.8       29.06
May                 7.8      na  
                  11.3       28.84
June                         na          
                     28.42
 ------------------------------------------------
-----------------------
HUNGARY
 -------------------------------------------
----------------------------
                           Real GDP     Current
     Visible
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    
Exports
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
1988               27.9      2.6         -807         626       9,999
1
989               29.3      3.7       -1,437         809       9,672
1990   
            32.9     -3.9          127         929       9,550
1991         
                             267      -1,635      10,729
1st qtr. 1991      
 na     na         159         599       2,171
2nd atr. 1991       na     na
        -271      -1,383       2,109
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         3
91        -604       2,312
4th qtr. 1991       na     na         -12        
-173       4,089
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         428         383      
 2,430
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na                    -451       2,687
 --
---------------------------------------------------------------------
      
          Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
          
       Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 ---------------
--------------------------------------------------------
1988               
 na    44.5        144.9         0.3       50.41
1989                na    5
1.9        139.9         0.5       59.07
1990               73.3     63.8   
     128.1         1.1       63.21
1991              100.0    100.0        1
00.0         na      74.74
1st qtr. 1991      91.1     85.8        112.7    
     na      70.26
2nd qtr. 1991      99.2     95.3        102.5         na 
     75.91
3rd qtr. 1991     102.9    105.4         94.8         na      76.
35
4th qtr. 1991     106.8    113.5         89.8         na      76.49
1st q
tr. 1992     114.4    111.4         89.3         9.5       78.12
2nd qtr. 19
92     119.8    119.1         87.5        10.9       79.22
March 1992       
  24.7      na       -32.1         na      79.64
April              22.9    
  na       -30.0         na      79.98
May                22.6      na      
 -24.9         na      79.28
June                na                -19.9    
     na      78.46
 --------------------------------------------------------
---------------
POLAND
 ----------------------------------------------------
-------------------
                           Real GDP     Current     Visi
ble
                    GDP     Growth      Balance     Balance    Exports
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1988
               68.7      4.7         -275       1,717      13,944
1989      
         82.2      0.5       -1,586       3,204      13,537
1990            
   63.9    -11.6          668       5,466      13,626
1991                  
                 -1,359         -22      14,971
1st qtr. 1991       na     n
a      -1,134        -389       2,851
2nd qtr. 1991       na     na        -
531         146       3,504
3rd qtr. 1991       na     na         533       
  112       3,192
4th qtr. 1991       na     na        -227          62     
  4,814
1st qtr. 1992       na     na         133
2nd qtr. 1992       na    
 na
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unemploy-   Exchange
   
              Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate     Rate
 --------
---------------------------------------------------------------
1988        
        2.4      3.3        164.9         na        431
1989                
8.6     12.8        164.0         na      1,439
1990               58.7     
59.4        124.4         5.7       9,500
1991              100.0    100.0  
      100.0        11.8      10,576
1st qtr. 1991      86.9     92.4        
109.6         7.0       9,500
2nd qtr. 1991      97.0     92.9         98.5 
        8.0      10,394
3rd qtr. 1991     103.0     97.3         94.3       
 10.1      11,298
4th qtr. 1991     113.0    117.4         97.2        11.4 
     11,112
1st qtr. 1992     127.7    121.9         99.9        12.2      1
2,169
2nd qtr. 1992     12.4                                         13,675

March 1992        42.4      33.3         -0.8        12.1      13,443
April 
            43.8                    3.5        12.2      13,621
May         
                              2.8        12.3      13,703
June              
                                   12.6      13,701
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
ROMANIA
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
                      
     Real GDP     Current     Visible
                    GDP     Growth    
  Balance     Balance    Exports
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
1988               60.0     -0.5        3,595 
      4,288      13,866
1989               53.5     -5.8        2,864       
2,117      12,130
1990               37.6     -7.4       -1,656      -3,839 
      6,375
1991                                   -1,236      -1,001       
4,237
1st qtr. 1991       na     na        -510        -545       1,032
2nd 
qtr. 1991       na     na        -353        -314         987
3rd qtr. 1991 
      na     na        -140        -175         928
4th qtr. 1991       na  
   na        -233        -186       1,149
1st qtr. 1992       na     na     
               -361         845
2nd qtr. 1992       na     na               
     -329       1,161
 -----------------------------------------------------
------------------
                Consumer  Industrial  Industrial   Unempl
oy-   Exchange
                 Prices     Wages     Production   ment Rate 
    Rate
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
1988                na    38.7        152.5         0.0       14.28
19
89                na    39.9        149.0         0.0       14.92
1990      
          na    41.8        127.7         0.0       22.43
1991              
100.0    100.0        100.0         3.1       76.39
1st qtr. 1991      61.7 
    53.4        100.1         1.3       34.84
2nd qtr. 1991      86.6     95
.2        111.4         2.7       60.29
3rd qtr. 1991     107.5    111.2    
    100.3         3.5       61.24
4th qtr. 1991     144.3    140.1         8
8.2         4.7      149.18
1st qtr. 1992     216.9    182.3         89.3   
      6.9      196.84
2nd qtr. 1992     275.0    235.3         81.5         
         210.89
March 1992       *264.4   *275.3        -15.7         na    
 198.00
April            *201.5   *149.1        -24.5         na     198.40

May              *221.7   *134.1        -28.9         na     223.60
June    
         *158.9                 -27.1         na
 --------------------------
---------------------------------------------
* = NB annual percentage chang
es, not index nos. Notes: Latest
population estimates (end 1991, millions) -
 Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic
10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan
d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP
estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di
ffers from GDP
primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for
 the
current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible

balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in
italic
s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in
1990 was 24.
2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total
imports). Sources: Stat
e statistical offices and central banks, IMF,
World Bank. Data supplied by B
usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959)
 -East European Statistical Bullet
in, available quarterly. Not all
series are strictly comparable across count
ries. For precise definitions
and any further information please refer to BS
L.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 128 ==============================================
Transaction #:    128       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
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Selec. Rec. #:      7

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5357</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIECYAA8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old 
age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANGUS FOSTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Brazil looks set to e
nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'.
According to projections ma
de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m
by the year 2000. But accor
ding to latest predictions, the total will be far
less, probably 172m.
The r
easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in
other La
tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female
fertility rate
s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid
urbanisation. The
 consequences, which include an ageing society and serious
strains on social
 and employment needs, have not yet been addressed.
'It is the population ab
ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades.
Brazil will have to liv
e with this phenomenon, which is well known in
developed countries, without 
having overcome typical problems related to
under-development,' says demogra
phics professor Jose de Carvalho.
Brazil's population change started in the 
1940s. Improved medical and basic
services led to falling mortality rates. F
ertility rates remained high until
the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po
pulation growth and a society with
more than half its members under 20 years
 old.
It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was

blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first
i
nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's
population
 was 100m and expected to double rapidly.
But the female fertility rate - th
e average number of births per
child-bearing woman - began a startling fall 
from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975
and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa
ulo state, Brazil's richest, the
fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d
eveloped countries.
The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa
tion, as families
moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r
eason was
increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe
r cent of
women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr
aceptive.
Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p
er cent
used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent.

These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic
cou
ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal
unless t
he woman has been raped or is in medical danger.
Officially, the church prom
otes the Billings method, which teaches couples
to avoid sex during ovulatio
n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the
church is, unofficially, more l
iberal than it appears or losing its sway.
Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos
e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao
Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If 
a couple asked advice on sterilisation,
which is rare, I would take into acc
ount their economic situation and number
of children, the love between them 
and whether another method is possible.
'But the couple must decide, and tha
t's something we should not and cannot
try to stop. And their decision has t
o be supported, too. This might be
criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea
ling with people in real
situations,' he says.
The increasing demand for ste
rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has
helped make Brazil the world
 leader for caesarian births. These account for
roughly one in three deliver
ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales.
The reasons are complex. So
me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way
to give birth, a view hospit
als encourage, while others fear the pain
involved in vaginal deliveries. An
other reason is that when giving birth by
caesarian, a woman can request to 
be sterilised at the same time and the
government pays. Outside pregnancy, w
omen have to pay to be sterilised,
usually at semi-legal clinics.
The declin
ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades.
Population gro
wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9
per cent and is 
still declining.
Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde
r 15 years old.
By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By 
about 2040, with
a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22
0m and stabilise
or even fall.
This prompts the church and other anti-aborti
on groups to argue that
population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi
ally given the country's
undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula
tion will also allow
better government planning. In the past, rapid populati
on growth in cities,
for example, has prevented governments developing long-
term urban plans.
But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges
. The number of
people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for
 the next
decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs.
The soc
ial security system, established when the average age at death was
45, must 
be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and
women re
spectively.
The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p
reventative
medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei
ng
population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families

will need extra services.
Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware 
of these challenges.
Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990
 census was postponed
to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi
ngs are available.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>BRZ  Brazil, South Ame
rica.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Healt
h Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PU
B>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 129 ==============================================
Transaction #:    129       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:08
Selec. Rec. #:      7

Boolean Indexes Used:

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   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf

Boolean Conjunctions:

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5357</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIECYAA8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old 
age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANGUS FOSTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Brazil looks set to e
nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'.
According to projections ma
de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m
by the year 2000. But accor
ding to latest predictions, the total will be far
less, probably 172m.
The r
easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in
other La
tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female
fertility rate
s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid
urbanisation. The
 consequences, which include an ageing society and serious
strains on social
 and employment needs, have not yet been addressed.
'It is the population ab
ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades.
Brazil will have to liv
e with this phenomenon, which is well known in
developed countries, without 
having overcome typical problems related to
under-development,' says demogra
phics professor Jose de Carvalho.
Brazil's population change started in the 
1940s. Improved medical and basic
services led to falling mortality rates. F
ertility rates remained high until
the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po
pulation growth and a society with
more than half its members under 20 years
 old.
It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was

blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first
i
nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's
population
 was 100m and expected to double rapidly.
But the female fertility rate - th
e average number of births per
child-bearing woman - began a startling fall 
from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975
and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa
ulo state, Brazil's richest, the
fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d
eveloped countries.
The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa
tion, as families
moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r
eason was
increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe
r cent of
women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr
aceptive.
Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p
er cent
used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent.

These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic
cou
ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal
unless t
he woman has been raped or is in medical danger.
Officially, the church prom
otes the Billings method, which teaches couples
to avoid sex during ovulatio
n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the
church is, unofficially, more l
iberal than it appears or losing its sway.
Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos
e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao
Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If 
a couple asked advice on sterilisation,
which is rare, I would take into acc
ount their economic situation and number
of children, the love between them 
and whether another method is possible.
'But the couple must decide, and tha
t's something we should not and cannot
try to stop. And their decision has t
o be supported, too. This might be
criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea
ling with people in real
situations,' he says.
The increasing demand for ste
rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has
helped make Brazil the world
 leader for caesarian births. These account for
roughly one in three deliver
ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales.
The reasons are complex. So
me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way
to give birth, a view hospit
als encourage, while others fear the pain
involved in vaginal deliveries. An
other reason is that when giving birth by
caesarian, a woman can request to 
be sterilised at the same time and the
government pays. Outside pregnancy, w
omen have to pay to be sterilised,
usually at semi-legal clinics.
The declin
ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades.
Population gro
wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9
per cent and is 
still declining.
Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde
r 15 years old.
By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By 
about 2040, with
a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22
0m and stabilise
or even fall.
This prompts the church and other anti-aborti
on groups to argue that
population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi
ally given the country's
undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula
tion will also allow
better government planning. In the past, rapid populati
on growth in cities,
for example, has prevented governments developing long-
term urban plans.
But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges
. The number of
people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for
 the next
decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs.
The soc
ial security system, established when the average age at death was
45, must 
be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and
women re
spectively.
The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p
reventative
medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei
ng
population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families

will need extra services.
Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware 
of these challenges.
Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990
 census was postponed
to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi
ngs are available.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>BRZ  Brazil, South Ame
rica.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Healt
h Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PU
B>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 130 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5357</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIECYAA8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old 
age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANGUS FOSTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Brazil looks set to e
nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'.
According to projections ma
de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m
by the year 2000. But accor
ding to latest predictions, the total will be far
less, probably 172m.
The r
easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in
other La
tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female
fertility rate
s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid
urbanisation. The
 consequences, which include an ageing society and serious
strains on social
 and employment needs, have not yet been addressed.
'It is the population ab
ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades.
Brazil will have to liv
e with this phenomenon, which is well known in
developed countries, without 
having overcome typical problems related to
under-development,' says demogra
phics professor Jose de Carvalho.
Brazil's population change started in the 
1940s. Improved medical and basic
services led to falling mortality rates. F
ertility rates remained high until
the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po
pulation growth and a society with
more than half its members under 20 years
 old.
It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was

blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first
i
nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's
population
 was 100m and expected to double rapidly.
But the female fertility rate - th
e average number of births per
child-bearing woman - began a startling fall 
from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975
and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa
ulo state, Brazil's richest, the
fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d
eveloped countries.
The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa
tion, as families
moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r
eason was
increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe
r cent of
women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr
aceptive.
Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p
er cent
used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent.

These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic
cou
ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal
unless t
he woman has been raped or is in medical danger.
Officially, the church prom
otes the Billings method, which teaches couples
to avoid sex during ovulatio
n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the
church is, unofficially, more l
iberal than it appears or losing its sway.
Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos
e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao
Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If 
a couple asked advice on sterilisation,
which is rare, I would take into acc
ount their economic situation and number
of children, the love between them 
and whether another method is possible.
'But the couple must decide, and tha
t's something we should not and cannot
try to stop. And their decision has t
o be supported, too. This might be
criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea
ling with people in real
situations,' he says.
The increasing demand for ste
rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has
helped make Brazil the world
 leader for caesarian births. These account for
roughly one in three deliver
ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales.
The reasons are complex. So
me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way
to give birth, a view hospit
als encourage, while others fear the pain
involved in vaginal deliveries. An
other reason is that when giving birth by
caesarian, a woman can request to 
be sterilised at the same time and the
government pays. Outside pregnancy, w
omen have to pay to be sterilised,
usually at semi-legal clinics.
The declin
ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades.
Population gro
wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9
per cent and is 
still declining.
Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde
r 15 years old.
By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By 
about 2040, with
a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22
0m and stabilise
or even fall.
This prompts the church and other anti-aborti
on groups to argue that
population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi
ally given the country's
undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula
tion will also allow
better government planning. In the past, rapid populati
on growth in cities,
for example, has prevented governments developing long-
term urban plans.
But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges
. The number of
people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for
 the next
decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs.
The soc
ial security system, established when the average age at death was
45, must 
be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and
women re
spectively.
The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p
reventative
medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei
ng
population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families

will need extra services.
Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware 
of these challenges.
Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990
 census was postponed
to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi
ngs are available.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>BRZ  Brazil, South Ame
rica.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Healt
h Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PU
B>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 131 ==============================================
Transaction #:    131       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-9545</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DHIDBAD6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9308
09
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  09 AUG 93 / International Bonds: Hopes of interest
 rate cuts fuel European revival </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SARA WEBB </BYLI
NE>
<TEXT>
INTEREST rate fever swept through the European bond markets last 
week with
the birth of a brave new world of floating exchange rates.
The dec
ision by European Community finance ministers, taken early on August
2, to m
ove from a fairly rigid European exchange rate mechanism based on
narrow flu
ctuation bands to one where the fluctuation bands of 15 per cent
are so wide
 as to be irrelevant, triggered a strong rally in European bonds.
This was p
rompted on the view that European governments would be free to
kick-start th
eir recession-hit economies by swiftly cutting domestic
interest rates.
In f
act, few cut rates once the shackles were removed, and those who did
were fa
r from bold. The Bundesbank surprised the markets with a 15 basis
point cut 
in the fixed rate for 14-day repos, to 6.80 per cent, and an
easing in the 2
8-day repo rate, to 6.70 per cent - which put the latter
below the discount 
rate of 6.75 per cent.
Spain cut its benchmark interest rate by half a point
, to 10.5 per cent,
while Sweden snipped 25 basis points off its marginal le
nding rate, to 8.25
per cent. However, there is ample scope for European int
erest rates to fall
further, and the bond markets have soared in response.
E
ven the Ecu bond market - which is so sensitive to shifts in sentiment
regar
ding the future of Europe - saw a sudden renewal of interest last week.
Howe
ver, while its short-term prospects make it attractive to some
investors, th
ere is still a large question mark over its longer-term
attractions.
The Ecu
 bond market took off last week mainly because investors realised the
bonds 
were too cheap, while providing a relatively simple means of
benefiting from
 the potential for interest rate cuts across Europe.
'It's a cost-effective 
way of gaining exposure to European markets - people
buy it as a way of savi
ng dealing costs,' says Mr Michael Burke, economist
at Citibank.
The actual 
yield on Ecu bonds was higher than the theoretical yield curve
(calculated a
ccording to the bond yields of the Ecu's component currencies),
which meant 
the bonds were cheap relative to the theoretical value.
However, last week's
 rally in the Ecu bond market pushed actual yields below
theoretical yields.
 For example, the actual yield on the 8 per cent, 10-year
French Ecu bond wa
s 6.99 per cent on Friday, or 7 basis points below its
theoretical yield, wh
ile three-month UK Ecu treasury bills had an actual
yield of 7.9 per cent, c
ompared with a theoretical yield of 7.95 per cent.
'The actual yield could b
e as much as 20 to 30 basis points lower than the
theoretical yield, and the
 bonds would still represent good value because of
the transaction cost-savi
ng,' says Mr Burke.
Mr Bob Tyley, head of bond analysis at Paribas Capital M
arkets, points out
that for investors based outside Europe, the move from se
mi-fixed to
floating exchange rates means there is more uncertainty over whi
ch currency
will do what. As a result, the basket nature of the Ecu becomes 
more
important, given that the Ecu can be used as a substitute means of inve
sting
in Europe, he says.
Yet for all the short-term euphoria springing from
 the move to wider
fluctuation bands in the ERM, there is still considerable
 concern over the
future of the Ecu.
'The whole prospect of European monetar
y union is, if not dead, at least on
its death-bed, so it is highly unlikely
 that the Ecu bond market will enjoy
the same attractions as it did before t
he first Danish referendum on the
Maastricht treaty,' says Mr Burke.
If ther
e are grave doubts over whether the Ecu will become the single
currency for 
Europe, investors and issuers may well wonder why they should
bother with a 
market which does not have much of a future and which could
suffer from illi
quidity - even if Mr John Major does try to relaunch the
plan for a hard Ecu
.
Ecu bond issuance has certainly dried up since the Danes dealt a blow to
h
opes of European economic and monetary union last summer. Ecu bond
specialis
ts, meanwhile, admit it is hard to see why issuers should tap this
market at
 the moment. In the past, some issues have been swap-driven, but
dealers say
 there are few favourable swap opportunities in Ecu.
So if there is to be a 
fresh drive to revive the Ecu bond market, it may
well have to be politicall
y motivated. In the past, France was one of the
keenest advocates of Ecu bon
d issuance, and had undertaken to conduct about
15 per cent of its funding i
n Ecu. However, given that French government
bond yields are lower than Ecu 
bond yields, there is no financial incentive
for the French to issue Ecu-den
ominated debt, although those with a keen
interest in the Ecu market no doub
t will be watching closely to see just how
committed the Ecu's supporters pr
ove to be.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>ESZ  Spain, EC.
    GBZ  Unite
d Kingdom, EC.
    DKZ  Denmark, EC.
    FRZ  France, EC.
    USZ  United St
ates of America.
    DEZ  Germany, EC.
    JPZ  Japan, Asia.
    CAZ  Canada
.
    AUZ  Australia.
    CHZ  Switzerland, West Europe.
    LUZ  Luxembourg
, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetar
y Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  M
arket data.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 132 ==============================================
Transaction #:    132       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT944-8993</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EKQEIAEIFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9411
17
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 NOV 94 / A tough act to follow: Japanese busine
ss is hoping for monetary relaxation under a new central bank governor </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GERARD BAKER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In a deserted Tokyo, at 
midnight, a huddle of people gathered last week for
an out-of-hours announce
ment. Mr Yasuo Matsushita, a former bureaucrat and
commercial banker, had be
en selected as Japan's next central bank governor.
The late-night timing cou
ld hardly have heightened the interest in the
appointment: few are the Japan
ese businessmen and financiers who have not
hoped for a softening in monetar
y policy with the ending of the dramatic
tenure of outgoing governor Mr Yasu
shi Mieno.
The current restructuring of the Japanese economy owes much to Mr
 Mieno's
vision, and the slowness of the recovery something to his disciplin
e. He
moved to curb the unbridled growth of the 1980s, and has since held to
 a
policy designed to squeeze Japan's corporate sector.
Mr Matsushita's task
 will be to steer the economy through the fallout from
this process: refinin
g the balancing after the overhaul. Such an agenda is
unlikely to prompt a c
hange of course on the scale witnessed by Mr Mieno,
but it may prove as cont
roversial.
When Mr Mieno took office five years ago Japan's wild financial p
arty of the
late 1980s was at its high point. Financial liberalisation, rapi
d economic
growth and easy money had given birth to a bubble economy.
What b
egan as an explosion in land prices, in cramped conditions of tight
supply a
nd ballooning demand, had quickly spread to embrace equities, bonds,
and eve
n golf-club memberships. By the time of Mr Mieno's accession, land
prices ha
d risen fivefold in a little over three years, and the stock market
had trip
led in four.
Appalled by the lack of financial control, Mr Mieno, something 
of an ascetic
said never to have bought a share in his life, acted quickly t
o burst the
bubble. Within three weeks he had cut financial sector liquidity
 and over
the next 15 months he raised the discount rate five times, taking 
it from
2.5 to 6 per cent by the end of 1990.
The recession that followed pr
oved the most serious in Japan since the
second world war. Share prices coll
apsed by more than 50 per cent in four
years, and land prices fell by up to 
70 per cent.
As domestic demand fell, corporate Japan was hit by overcapacit
y. The rise
in the yen, prompted by rising interest rates, the large and ris
ing current
account surplus and a slowdown in Japanese overseas investment, 
led to
declining demand in export markets. The underlying inefficiency of mu
ch of
Japanese industry was exposed.
The central bank responded to the reces
sion with increasingly urgent cuts in
interest rates, taking the official di
scount rate to a record low of 1.75
per cent last autumn.
In the year since,
 the first signs of sluggish recovery have emerged, with
the economy expecte
d to expand by about 1 per cent this year, accelerating
slowly thereafter.
B
ut the weakness of the recovery presents the new governor with a challenge
a
s difficult as the one that faced his predecessor: he must find the right
mi
x of monetary policy to meet an exacting set of demands. In addition to
the 
usual need to sustain non-inflationary growth, policy must deal with the
con
tinuing financial consequences of the collapse of the bubble - corporate
ind
ebtedness and the banking system's bad loans. It must also address the
longe
r-term transformation of the economy into an efficient, deregulated
market s
ystem.
So far under Mr Mieno, the bank's approach has been a surprising one 
- a
gentle tightening of monetary conditions. Since July, overnight call rat
es
have been allowed to drift upwards - from 2 per cent in July to 2.3 per c
ent
last week.
'Since the summer the bank has moved gradually to tighten liq
uidity, which
has pushed up short-term interest rates,' says Mr Richard Wern
er, chief
economist at Jardine Fleming in Tokyo.
Many economists are puzzled
 by the bank's tactics. If the slow upturn had
been accompanied by the meres
t hint of inflation, monetary tightening would
have been comprehensible. In 
fact the opposite has occurred. The recovery is
so weak that it has failed t
o counteract the prevailing deflationary forces
at work. Wholesale prices ar
e falling at a rate of 2 per cent a year and
consumer prices are stable.
So 
the bank's tightening, though gentle for the moment, seems unnecessary.
The 
risks associated with it also appear to be unbalanced. There is an
infinites
imal risk of inflation if policy is relaxed, but a significant risk
of renew
ed economic slowdown if policy is tightened. Confronted with this
choice the
 bank has elected to tighten.
Mr Toshio Koyano, economist at DKB Research in
 Tokyo, says: 'The BoJ's move
in the past few months has been premature - re
straining monetary growth now
carries a risk of endangering the recovery.'
M
ost central bankers have a weakness for what Lord Healey, chancellor in the

last British Labour government, called sado-monetarism. But in the Bank of
J
apan's case, there seems to be a more rational explanation for the
strategy,
 based on Mr Mieno's increasingly bullish view of economic
prospects. The ba
nk's official judgment is that the economy is 'in the early
stages of recove
ry', a much less cautious view than one espoused by other
public bodies.
Bel
ieving this, the bank's behaviour has differed in this cycle from its
polici
es in previous cycles. In the last two recessions of the 1980s,
interest rat
es were still allowed to fall even after the output gap - the
difference bet
ween actual output and potential output - had started to
narrow. Interest ra
tes began to ease upwards only when inflationary
pressures had clearly retur
ned to the economy.
This time, the bank is tying monetary policy to its perc
eption of the
performance of the real economy, rather than price levels. It 
has acted to
raise interest rates as soon as the output gap has started to c
lose - even
though inflation is falling.
The bank 'has placed overwhelming e
mphasis on the pace of economic recovery
 -not inflation - as the key policy
 determinant,' explains Mr Feldman, chief
economist at Salomon Brothers.
The
 reason appears to be that the bank is determined to use monetary policy
to 
promote the restructuring of the economy. The long recession and the rise
in
 the value of the yen have forced companies to begin to reduce the
overcapac
ity produced during the bubble. According to Mr James Vestal, chief
economis
t at Barclays de Zoete Wedd in Tokyo: 'By allowing the economy to
work throu
gh the excesses of the second half of the 1980s on its own, the
bank will en
sure that the momentum for deregulation, restructuring and
change remains in
tact.'
Mr Matsushita may wish to follow the policy of squeezing the corporat
e
sector. But as former chairman of Sakura, a bank with one of the largest
p
ortfolios of bad loans, he will be more aware than most of the significant
r
isk of a crisis in the financial sector.
Japanese banks have not moved quick
ly to rid themselves of the problem loans
collected in the bubble years. The
 leading banks have made provisions of
just Y3,000bn out of as much as Y30,0
00bn. Years of sluggish economic
growth, however cathartic for manufacturers
, would be difficult for the
banks, for which it means weak demand, continui
ng asset problems and poor
profitability.
Worse, the present monetary tighte
ning is potentially ruinous for them.
Already the upward drift in short-term
 rates has pushed up banks' funding
costs. As interest rates rise, banks' in
terest costs rise more quickly than
their income, because of the structure o
f their assets and liabilities. That
is already putting pressure on margins 
and will limit further their scope to
dispose of bad debts.
Financial market
s are speculating that Mr Matsushita, with his direct
experience of the bank
ing sector, might adopt an easier monetary policy to
assist the banks.
But m
ore likely, the other, longer part of his experience - as a bureaucrat
in th
e finance ministry - will incline him towards a middle course.
Macroeconomic
 policy is likely to be geared towards restrained growth to
maintain the pre
ssure on corporate Japan, while banks will be nursed back to
health by micro
-management.
'The focus will be on case-by-case problem solving of particula
r banks'
balance sheet problems,' says Mr Jesper Koll, of JP Morgan in Tokyo
. 'The
governor will act as a hands-on manager of these issues. Interest rat
e
policy will not change for the time being.'
The implications of that strat
egy are far-reaching. Policy will not be
dictated by the fear of a banking c
ollapse. Instead, some banks may be
allowed to fail if they do not represent
 a risk to the banking system. Mr
Matsushita will need to draw on all the cr
edit that his years in the banking
sector have given him if he is to achieve
 that.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>JPZ  Japan, Asia.
</CN>
<XX>
Indus
tries:-
</XX>
<IN>P6011 Federal Reserve Banks.
    P9311 Finance, Taxation, 
and Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.

</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 21 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 133 ==============================================
Transaction #:    133       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-5103</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFBA3ADDFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 JUN 92 / Survey of The Earth Summit (8): Popula
tion surge is a crucial issue - There may well be 10bn people on the earth b
y the year 2050 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By HILARY DE BOERR </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

THE WORLD'S population is growing at an unprecedented rate, consuming more
r
esources than ever - nearly a billion people will be added to the planet
dur
ing the 1990s, according to the Worldwatch Institute. As the number of
poor 
people is increasing, human migration is growing and renewable
resources, su
ch as water and land are increasingly under threat.
Such realities make the 
population issue a crucial one for sustainable
development. There are about 
5.5bn people in the world, with an average
annual increase of 97m projected 
for the coming decade. International
experts agree that population growth ra
tes will have to be reduced, and the
pattern of human activities changed, if
 ecological catastrophe is to be
averted.
The two go hand-in-hand because it
 is not simply high population growth
rates that are threatening the environ
ment. Developed countries, with
relatively low birth rates, consume most of 
the world's resources. A
Bangladeshi, for example, consumes energy equivalen
t to three barrels of oil
a year, a US citizen 55 barrels.
As Oxfam puts it:
 'Industrialised countries generate significantly more
damage per person to 
the global environment than do people in developing
countries.'
Sustainable 
development therefore calls for a fairer distribution of the
benefits of dev
elopment among the world's people.
High population growth rates in developin
g countries - where 80 per cent of
the world's population lives - will, neve
rtheless, put even greater pressure
on the world's resources.
The higher the
 population in developing countries, the higher their energy
use and polluti
on, especially as economies develop. More water is needed,
more forests are 
cleared, inappropriate agricultural practices increase and
wildlife species 
disappear. Population growth in developing countries is
responsible for abou
t 79 per cent of deforestation, 72 per cent of arable
land expansion and 69 
per cent of the growth in livestock numbers.
Such problems are further compo
unded by the increasing migration of people -
to urban areas and to environm
entally sensitive inland areas - in search of
productive land and jobs.
Addr
essing high birth rates means addressing poverty in such countries, say
inte
rnational agencies. More than 1bn people live in absolute poverty
without ad
equate food, clothing or housing.
North-South relationships regarding debt, 
trade, aid and technology transfer
are seen as longer-term means of tackling
 poverty. Programmes to tackle high
birth rates focus on improving third wor
ld health and education, and
providing readily available and affordable fami
ly planning.
Practice shows that birth rates can be reduced voluntarily by r
aising the
status of women through education and providing them with opportu
nities
other than the traditional child bearing role. It is thought that mor
e than
one in five births in developing countries may be unwanted.
The worst
 case scenario for the population explosion is that there could be
12.5bn pe
ople in the world by 2050 if immediate action is not taken. The
most likely 
scenario is a figure of 10bn people.
Fertility patterns can change in just o
ne decade. Development and
consumption patterns will have to follow suit, sa
ys the United Nations
Population Fund.
'World resources are adequate for the
 sustained development of the planet -
if they are carefully used,' it warns
.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page V </PAGE>
</DOC
>

============= Transaction # 134 ==============================================
Transaction #:    134       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western 
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future 
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to 
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m 
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from 
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because 
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>

<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 135 ==============================================
Transaction #:    135       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western 
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future 
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to 
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m 
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from 
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because 
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>

<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 136 ==============================================
Transaction #:    136       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western 
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future 
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to 
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m 
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from 
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because 
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>

<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 137 ==============================================
Transaction #:    137       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-13785</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EDVCVAHRFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu
b around the ministry - Population trends </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEPHAN
IE GRAY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc
e for population and
development next September.
Seven thousand experts will
 be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its
achievement of reducing growth i
n the birth rate, among its 61m people
squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th
e country's area, from 3 per cent a
year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c
ent.
A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry,

created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October.
Egy
pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10
years, l
argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign.
The crude birth rat
e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per
1,000 in 1993, while t
he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand
in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993
.
The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3

births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception

 -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago.
Nearly 30 per cent of the
se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly
supplied by the US Agency for I
nternational Development. Thirteen per cent
use the pill and the remainder u
se traditional methods and condoms  - the
least popular form of control. (Un
happily, several years ago a consignment
of condoms donated by the US found 
its way into the market place where they
were sold as children's balloons.)

However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the

birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to

be more difficult.
Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo
gy of going on a
diet to lose weight.
'If you want to lose weight, it is eas
y at first. Once you have lost it,
keeping the weight off is the difficult p
art.'
Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e
mpty
talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b
ut
there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim,

senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the
Internati
onal Population Council.
'More than half of them do not think that populatio
n is a problem. They are
products of the socialist era and see development a
s the best contraception.
But unless they limit family size, there won't be 
any development,' she
says.
The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit
h the creation of the
ministry.
The key to further progress lies with improv
ements in living standards and
education - over which the ministry has no co
ntrol.
The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives 
on a
total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr
en
under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population
 is
illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate.
Furthermore, attitude
s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper
Egypt - need to be al
tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey
shows that 40 per cent
 of men feel they should have the primary role in
decisions about childbeari
ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie
Stopes clinic in Shoubra,
 a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80
per cent). Only 27 per c
ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and
the average number of ch
ildren per household is six. In rural areas,
children are still regarded as 
cheap labour; it is no surprise that the
highest fertility rates are found w
here socio-economic indicators are
lowest.
These issues are deeply entrenche
d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic
fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies
 that this has become a serious problem. The
Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au
thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has
declared that family planning does not
 contradict the teachings of Allah.
But some imams have been preaching again
st it in the local mosques.
According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some 
doctors serving in
government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan
ts who see family
planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m
ore than a general
protest against the government in denying contraceptive a
dvice, she says,
rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio
n. 'It has just
become a convenient whipping boy.'
More subtly, women survey
ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be
reacting to advertising in a 
manner opposite from that intended. When shown
two scenes, one with a woman 
relaxing and painting her finger nails, the
other a mother of five rushing a
bout doing the housework, they saw the
harried housewife as their preferred 
role model.
For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger 
budget than
it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources.
Perhaps
 September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to
ensure re
newed political will to succeed.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egy
pt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Administration of Social
 and Manpower Programs.
    P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.

</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financ
ial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VIII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 138 ==============================================
Transaction #:    138       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-13785</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EDVCVAHRFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu
b around the ministry - Population trends </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEPHAN
IE GRAY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc
e for population and
development next September.
Seven thousand experts will
 be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its
achievement of reducing growth i
n the birth rate, among its 61m people
squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th
e country's area, from 3 per cent a
year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c
ent.
A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry,

created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October.
Egy
pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10
years, l
argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign.
The crude birth rat
e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per
1,000 in 1993, while t
he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand
in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993
.
The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3

births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception

 -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago.
Nearly 30 per cent of the
se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly
supplied by the US Agency for I
nternational Development. Thirteen per cent
use the pill and the remainder u
se traditional methods and condoms  - the
least popular form of control. (Un
happily, several years ago a consignment
of condoms donated by the US found 
its way into the market place where they
were sold as children's balloons.)

However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the

birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to

be more difficult.
Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo
gy of going on a
diet to lose weight.
'If you want to lose weight, it is eas
y at first. Once you have lost it,
keeping the weight off is the difficult p
art.'
Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e
mpty
talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b
ut
there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim,

senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the
Internati
onal Population Council.
'More than half of them do not think that populatio
n is a problem. They are
products of the socialist era and see development a
s the best contraception.
But unless they limit family size, there won't be 
any development,' she
says.
The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit
h the creation of the
ministry.
The key to further progress lies with improv
ements in living standards and
education - over which the ministry has no co
ntrol.
The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives 
on a
total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr
en
under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population
 is
illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate.
Furthermore, attitude
s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper
Egypt - need to be al
tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey
shows that 40 per cent
 of men feel they should have the primary role in
decisions about childbeari
ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie
Stopes clinic in Shoubra,
 a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80
per cent). Only 27 per c
ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and
the average number of ch
ildren per household is six. In rural areas,
children are still regarded as 
cheap labour; it is no surprise that the
highest fertility rates are found w
here socio-economic indicators are
lowest.
These issues are deeply entrenche
d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic
fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies
 that this has become a serious problem. The
Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au
thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has
declared that family planning does not
 contradict the teachings of Allah.
But some imams have been preaching again
st it in the local mosques.
According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some 
doctors serving in
government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan
ts who see family
planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m
ore than a general
protest against the government in denying contraceptive a
dvice, she says,
rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio
n. 'It has just
become a convenient whipping boy.'
More subtly, women survey
ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be
reacting to advertising in a 
manner opposite from that intended. When shown
two scenes, one with a woman 
relaxing and painting her finger nails, the
other a mother of five rushing a
bout doing the housework, they saw the
harried housewife as their preferred 
role model.
For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger 
budget than
it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources.
Perhaps
 September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to
ensure re
newed political will to succeed.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egy
pt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Administration of Social
 and Manpower Programs.
    P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.

</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financ
ial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VIII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 139 ==============================================
Transaction #:    139       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-13785</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EDVCVAHRFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu
b around the ministry - Population trends </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEPHAN
IE GRAY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc
e for population and
development next September.
Seven thousand experts will
 be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its
achievement of reducing growth i
n the birth rate, among its 61m people
squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th
e country's area, from 3 per cent a
year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c
ent.
A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry,

created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October.
Egy
pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10
years, l
argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign.
The crude birth rat
e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per
1,000 in 1993, while t
he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand
in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993
.
The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3

births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception

 -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago.
Nearly 30 per cent of the
se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly
supplied by the US Agency for I
nternational Development. Thirteen per cent
use the pill and the remainder u
se traditional methods and condoms  - the
least popular form of control. (Un
happily, several years ago a consignment
of condoms donated by the US found 
its way into the market place where they
were sold as children's balloons.)

However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the

birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to

be more difficult.
Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo
gy of going on a
diet to lose weight.
'If you want to lose weight, it is eas
y at first. Once you have lost it,
keeping the weight off is the difficult p
art.'
Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e
mpty
talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b
ut
there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim,

senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the
Internati
onal Population Council.
'More than half of them do not think that populatio
n is a problem. They are
products of the socialist era and see development a
s the best contraception.
But unless they limit family size, there won't be 
any development,' she
says.
The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit
h the creation of the
ministry.
The key to further progress lies with improv
ements in living standards and
education - over which the ministry has no co
ntrol.
The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives 
on a
total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr
en
under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population
 is
illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate.
Furthermore, attitude
s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper
Egypt - need to be al
tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey
shows that 40 per cent
 of men feel they should have the primary role in
decisions about childbeari
ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie
Stopes clinic in Shoubra,
 a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80
per cent). Only 27 per c
ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and
the average number of ch
ildren per household is six. In rural areas,
children are still regarded as 
cheap labour; it is no surprise that the
highest fertility rates are found w
here socio-economic indicators are
lowest.
These issues are deeply entrenche
d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic
fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies
 that this has become a serious problem. The
Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au
thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has
declared that family planning does not
 contradict the teachings of Allah.
But some imams have been preaching again
st it in the local mosques.
According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some 
doctors serving in
government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan
ts who see family
planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m
ore than a general
protest against the government in denying contraceptive a
dvice, she says,
rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio
n. 'It has just
become a convenient whipping boy.'
More subtly, women survey
ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be
reacting to advertising in a 
manner opposite from that intended. When shown
two scenes, one with a woman 
relaxing and painting her finger nails, the
other a mother of five rushing a
bout doing the housework, they saw the
harried housewife as their preferred 
role model.
For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger 
budget than
it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources.
Perhaps
 September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to
ensure re
newed political will to succeed.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egy
pt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Administration of Social
 and Manpower Programs.
    P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.

</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financ
ial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VIII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 140 ==============================================
Transaction #:    140       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)

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============= Transaction # 141 ==============================================
Transaction #:    141       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-12410</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA4DIAAQFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
131
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (4
): The picture still looks grim - Money spent on children's health is not go
ing where it is most needed </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By RACHEL JOHNSON </BYLI
NE>
<TEXT>
The world spends Dollars 2,000bn on health care a year; the rate 
at which
health has improved since 1950 is unmatched in history. So says the
 World
Bank's recent report, Investing in Health, published last summer.
But
 the Bank also points out that the impressive sums are deceptive. For the
mo
ney is 'either spent on the wrong things, or wasted.' There should be more
'
barefoot medicine' and a wider campaign against poverty: for example,
better
 education for girls and young women, which would result in better
child hea
lth and smaller families.
Nevertheless, the report is at pains to say that b
ig spending on health  -
and it argues that more is needed - does not simply
 result in more babies
and all the dire consequences of over-population.
It 
results in lower child mortality rates and fertility rates (after a lag
of a
 couple of decades), as population growth rates in Asia, Latin America
and A
frica have shown. Furthermore, it saves money. The potential savings
add up 
to billions of dollars, because premature death or disability lost
the world
 (on the Bank's estimates) 1.4bn years of healthy (in many cases,
productive
) life in 1990 alone.
But the money is still not going where it is most need
ed. According to
Unicef's annual report on the state of the world's children
 - a sometimes
harrowing document - 8m children still die every year from fi
ve preventable
diseases: measles, whooping cough, diarrhoea, tetanus and pne
umonia. Even
more grim: 1m children have been killed, 4m seriously injured, 
and 5m have
become refugees or orphaned as a result of wars in the past deca
de.
A child born in 1991 in Romania or even in Turkey, on the borders of the

European Union, is five times more likely to die in the first year of life

than a child born in Switzerland, Iceland, Sweden, France or the
Netherlands
. In Turkey there are more than 56 deaths during the first year
of life per 
1000 live births, compared with six in Sweden. Mortality rates
in the third 
world are considerably worse.
In the Irish Republic only 10 children per 1,0
00 live births die before the
age of five - Ireland comes near the top of th
e Unicef tables. In South
America the average equivalent figure is 54, in Ea
st Asia 57, in South Asia
131 and in sub Saharan Africa 183. In some African
 countries almost one
third of all children die before they are five.
Lookin
g at maternal mortality, the European average is 13 deaths in
childbirth per
 100,000 births. In South America the comparable figure is
210, in South Asi
a it is 490, and in sub Saharan Africa almost 600 mothers
die in childbirth 
per 100,000 live births.
But even wholescale redistribution of all the money
 spent on health could
never achieve an equal chance of survival. Mortality 
rates arise from
several different factors, such as what social and economic
 group a child is
born into, general standards of living, housing and diet.

Access to vaccination is also crucial: there have been big leaps forward in

the global immunisation programme. The proportion of children immunised
agai
nst tuberculosis, measles, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and polio rose
fro
m 5 per cent in 1977 to 20-30 per cent in 1983. By 1990, immunisation
progra
mmes against of polio, diphtheria and measles had reached 80 per cent
of all
 children, with 35 per cent of pregnant women receiving tetanus shots.
The l
owest rate of vaccine coverage was in sub-Saharan Africa.
Lurking behind the
 call to redirect (and slightly increase) the Dollars
2000bn spent world-wid
e are wide disparities in health care resources, and
the resulting mortality
 and illness rates. The Bank says that if more money
was spent on preventing
 or curing the most common killers, such as measles,
whooping cough, complic
ations of pregnancy and water-born diseases, in parts
of the world, millions
 of lives could be saved relatively cheaply.
In the developing world, where 
the amount spent per head on health care is a
only a fraction of that spent 
in the developed world, a little more money
would go a long way.
By contrast
, the Americans spend 14 per cent of the US' gross domestic
product on healt
h care, compared with 6.1 per cent in the UK, and 8 per cent
in Germany, Fra
nce and Sweden.
Improvements in the developing world's health and child mort
ality rates will
to a large extent depend on the commitments undertaken by c
ountries of the
developed world, and improving the health of the world's chi
ldren will take
a greater international effort.
At the World Summit for Chil
dren, held in New York in 1990, 71 heads of
states signed a plan of action, 
seeking 'measurable, attainable goals' for
countries to incorporate into nat
ional planning: eradication of polio by the
year 2000; 90 per cent immunisat
ion by the same date; a halving of child
deaths caused by diarrhoea; and vir
tual elimination of vitamin A deficiency.
While developing countries - Tunis
ia and Zimbabwe among them - have shown
themselves capable of reforming thei
r health sectors, only 2.5 per cent of
all health spending (about Dollars 4.
8bn) in developing countries comes from
donors. Meanwhile, the share of tota
l development aid for health fell during
the 1980s from 7 per cent to 6 per 
cent.
In the UK much remains to be done. The Child Poverty Action Group, the

Health Visitors' Association and the Save the Children fund argued in their

submission to the health white paper in 1992: 'There are clear links betwee
n
poverty, environment and children's health. What hope is there for the
fut
ure health of the nation if the government fails to act to improve the
healt
h of the nation's children?'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United 
States of America.
    XMZ  Africa.
    XOZ  Asia.
    IEZ  Ireland, EC.
   
 XEZ  South America.
    GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
    DEZ  Germany, EC.
    
FRZ  France, EC.
    SEZ  Sweden, West Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>

<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX
>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE>
 Survey YOU Page 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 142 ==============================================
Transaction #:    142       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-3431</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DINC7ADMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9309
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 SEP 93 / Birth rights and wrongs </HEADLINE>
<B
YLINE>    By JOE ROGALY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
It was alarming to read last week t
hat the use of caesarean operations to
deliver British babies has nearly tre
bled over the past two decades. It
would not have happened if the hospitals 
and senior doctors had not wrested
the delivery business away from perfectly
 competent midwives. As we shall
see in a moment, the government is preparin
g to help the midwives win back
their lost customer base. It will be a strug
gle, but even we males must
cheer from the sidelines.
The disturbing news co
mes in 'Caesarean Birth in Britain', whose authors
include Professor Wendy S
avage. Remember her? A celebrated campaigner for
the right to natural childb
irth, she is still consultant obstetrician at the
Royal London hospital. Her
 fellow-writers are Helen Lewison, chairman of the
National Childbirth Trust
, and two academics. The four of them note that in
1973 the proportion of de
liveries by caesarean in England and Wales was an
estimated 5.3 per cent. By
 last year, their research suggests, this figure
had risen to 13 per cent.
T
he book contains a table of hospitals self-confident enough to allow their
d
ata to be published. It shows that the caesarean operation was used in 7.9
p
er cent of deliveries at St John's hospital, Chelmsford, and 21.5 per cent
i
n Hammersmith, with all the numbers you can think of in between. Even if
you
 take account of the careful note that 'hospitals with high rates may
well h
ave specialist units and so receive pregnancies which are at greater
risk' t
his variation is too wide to be explicable to lay observers. The
inescapable
 conclusion is that some caesareans may be medically necessary,
but that man
y are probably not.
This is clearly true in the US where in 1991 nearly a qu
arter of all babies
were delivered by caesarean, at a cost of Dollars 7.7bn.
 That is the highest
caesar-rate bar Brazil's, at doubtless the highest cost
 per delivery bar
none, yet the US infant mortality record is worse than tha
t of Japan,
Sweden, Holland or Britain. Fear of being sued is one reason, bu
t the
self-interest of the surgeon must surely be another.
The use of the ob
stetrician's knife has increased in most developed
countries, in concert, I 
suspect, with a growth in the sales of Jaguars,
Mercedes and Cadillac cars t
o successful consultants. The process is not
otherwise comprehensible. Accor
ding to a US study, within a team of
obstetricians caring for 1,553 affluent
 low-risk women at a community
hospital, one practitioner operated in 19.1 p
er cent of births, another at a
rate of 42.3 per cent.
Talk to almost any ne
w mother and you will be deluged with anecdotal
evidence suggesting that the
 convenience of the hospital, or its
consultants, has a lot to do with the g
rowth in the use of technological
interventions. Mrs Virginia Bottomley, UK 
secretary for health, should
arrange for league tables to be published annua
lly, showing which maternity
units use the most forceps deliveries, which th
e most caesareans, which
induce labour most often - and which produce the hi
ghest proportions of
healthy infants. Explanations and excuses could accompa
ny the lists.
She should, however, be warned. The consultants, presumably ex
cluding
Professor Savage, will squeal. The West Midlands Regional Health Aut
hority
published league tables showing how long patients must wait for an op
eration
with each of its 2,000 consultant surgeons. The British Medical Asso
ciation
was outraged. We may place our lives in the hands of this or that me
dical
specialist, but doctors acting in a collective cannot be trusted with 
our
wallets. Their trade unions, like the BMA, are among the most astute in 
the
business; the higher up the professional scale their associations go, th
e
more wily they become.
This is being demonstrated once again in the argume
nt about midwives. A few
weeks ago the government published a report on the 
maternity services drawn
up by an expert committee under the chairmanship of
 Baroness Cumberlege. It
noted the current department of health view that bi
rths should take place in
hospital, since 'unforeseen complications can occu
r in any birth', and set
against it last year's pronouncement from the House
 of Commons select
committee on health that 'encouraging all women to give b
irth in hospitals
cannot be justified on grounds of safety'.
The Cumberlege 
report puts into moderate, semi-official language the deepest
wishes of the 
National Childbirth Trust, aspirations that were once regarded
as cranky non
sense. It calls for 'woman-centred care', meaning that the
prospective mothe
r should be in control. She should be able to choose who
takes her case, be 
it midwife, general practitioner or obstetrician. She
should be able to arra
nge for a home birth, although she should then be
given a health warning abo
ut the risks. She might reasonably expect that the
same person, or the same 
small group of professionals, should manage the
whole of her pregnancy. She 
should be fully informed of the options at all
times, and have the right to 
take possession of her own case-notes.
The simple idea is that most confinem
ents are straightforward, and thus
capable of being brought to a happy concl
usion at home or by the woman's
personal midwife admitted (heavens]) to hosp
ital with her. There have been
tragedies in non-hospital births, but the sam
e applies to births within
high-tech maternity units. The report questions t
he assumption that
'experienced personnel are already readily available with
in a general
hospital'. You might think that the consultants would embrace i
t
enthusiastically, since releasing non-complicated births to the midwives
w
ould leave them more time in which to concentrate on the awkward cases.
Not 
so. The Royal College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists says that it is
'gen
uinely concerned' that some of the proposals in the Cumberlege report
'may e
ndanger the wellbeing of women and their babies'. It insists that
'review of
 every pregnancy by a medically qualified person is essential' -
surely righ
t - but insists that 'the doctor best qualified to conduct that
review is th
e obstetrician'. Probably. Have they seen the dingy queues, sat
for the long
 hours, waiting for a few moments with a consultant? As to home
confinements
, 'the college's view is that this is not a safe alternative to
delivery in 
properly equipped surroundings'. So far as my lay mind can
discover, that vi
ew is strongly disputed, although you have to believe in
last-minute ambulan
ce rides for cases that go life-threateningly wrong.
There is one necessary 
caveat. Nobody, so far as I can tell, has produced a
profit and loss table. 
In-hospital confinements, particularly when
operations ensue, sound more exp
ensive than outpatient work by lowly paid
midwives. Mrs Bottomley is still m
ulling the Cumberlege report. Under
pressure from the obstetricians, she rel
eased it as a discussion document,
without fully endorsing it. If she decide
s to accept it, she should
accompany the good news with figures to show that
 the best possible
midwifery service is to be created, and that the exercise
 is not motivated
by cost-cutting alone.
That little matter aside, the gover
nment would be wise to brave the wrath of
the Royal College. Some women may 
prefer caesareans; some may long for
natural births. Many will want their co
nfinements to be in hospital, under
an obstetrician's care; others will be m
ore comfortable at home with a
midwife. All should be given the necessary me
dical guidance with which to
make an informed choice. What could be more 199
0s Conservative than that?
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Ki
ngdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public 
Health Programs.
    P806  Hospitals.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 16
 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 143 ==============================================
Transaction #:    143       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-10025</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEEBIAAJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
505
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 MAY 92 / Survey of Hong Kong (3): Plans for a 
another miracle - Inflation is a side-effect of the structural changes in th
e economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SIMON DAVIES </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
HONG KONG
'S role as service centre for and gateway to China should ensure
continued p
rosperity in the face of its rapidly diminishing manufacturing
sector. But i
n the longer term, its consistently high inflation may become a
serious conc
ern.
Inflation is an inevitable side-effect of the structural changes taking

place in the economy. The traditional manufacturing sector has rapidly move
d
to take the benefits of cheaper land and labour across the border in
Guang
dong, creating a greater demand for workers in the more
labour-intensive ser
vice sector.
Demand for labour has been further enhanced by Hong Kong's role
 as regional
hub and springboard for investment into China. This has all tak
en place
against a backdrop of almost full employment, high emigration and o
ne of the
lowest birth rates in the world.
A fall in the Hong Kong inflation
 rate from its April 1991 peak of 13.9 per
cent to an estimated 1992 average
 of 9.8 per cent might suggest there is
already a downward trend.
But out of
 the forecast 2.5 per cent decrease in inflation in 1992, 2 per
cent is dire
ctly attributable to increased indirect taxes introduced in
1991. The figure
s are therefore artificial and businessmen are beginning to
accept that doub
le-digit inflation will become a matter of course in the
lead up to 1997.
Th
e handing out of some HKDollars 20bn worth of contracts for the new
airport 
in the first six months of 1992, combined with an economic upswing
in the se
cond half of the year, will put further pressure on prices.
Inflation is the
 main negative point in an otherwise optimistic economic
scenario. The phase
 of low growth and high inflation that followed the
disastrous consequences 
of Tiananmen Square and the Chinese austerity
measures of early 1989 are bei
ng replaced by a sharp trade-led economic
upswing.
Growth in Hong Kong's gro
ss domestic product (GDP) slowed to 3 per cent in
1990, hit by the effects o
f the Gulf crisis, but the China factor enabled it
to accelerate by a health
ier 4 per cent last year. A number of economists
expect it could rise to 6 p
er cent this year, compared with a government
forecast of 5 per cent; while 
corporate earnings growth for the 33 Hang Seng
Index constituent companies i
s expected to exceed 20 per cent this year.
The increase in foreign investme
nt in southern China has encouraged a
significant boom in its highly competi
tive export industries; these products
have been processed through Hong Kong
 and its deep water port, resulting in
a substantial increase in the level o
f re-exports.
The demand for services in Hong Kong has also reflected develo
pments in
China, as the colony has acted as the stepping off point for inter
national
investors. A recent survey indicated there were 880 regional repres
entative
offices in Hong Kong, with 26 regional headquarters set up in the f
irst five
months of 1991.
Finally, there has been a substantial pick-up in t
ourist arrivals, following
the downturn that accompanied the invasion of Kuw
ait.
Against these factors, the inflation rate might seem a minor irritant. 
Some
economists even argue that the differential between inflation and inter
est
rates, is beneficial, since it has encouraged greater capital expenditur
e.
There have been sizeable negative effective interest rates and so far ass
et
inflation has been focused only on specific areas such as residential
pro
perty.
Unlike the manufacturing sector, services compete on more than price 
and
Hong Kong has in its favour the China factor. But in the long term, Hong

Kong could see multinational companies relocating to other regional centres
;
while tourism is strongly linked to the cost of services. Inflation
theref
ore remains a very real concern.
With the evolution of Hong Kong's economy f
rom manufacturing to services,
concern over the competitive position of the 
territory's export sector
becomes less important.
In 1991, total domestic ex
ports increased by 2.3 per cent to HKDollars
231.04bn; re-exports jumped 29.
2 per cent to HKDollars 534.84bn. This
underlines the speed with which the e
conomy has relocated basic labour
intensive manufacturing to the Pearl River
 delta, instead concentrating on
servicing those displaced industries.
The m
anufacturing sector accounted for 31 per cent of the territory's GDP in
1970
. By 1990, this had fallen to 16.7 per cent, although there has been a
subst
antial increase in capital spending in industry, to maintain
productivity ag
ainst rising labour costs.
The trend away from manufacturing is continuing, 
with re-exports accounting
for almost 74 per cent of total exports in Februa
ry.
Southern China has been the fastest growing economy in the world over th
e
past decade and as service centre for this region, Hong Kong's demand for

labour can only increase.
The government made a feeble attempt to influence 
inflation through interest
rates in May 1991, when it bucked the US trend by
 raising Hong Kong interest
rates by 1 per cent.
The result was to create th
e widest margin between the Hong Kong and US
dollar in the eight-year histor
y of the pegged exchange rate. Interest rates
had to be brought down after f
ive weeks.
The government claimed the exercise was a success, but economists
 pointed
out the increase in the money supply resulting from interest rate i
nduced
capital inflows, may have offset any minor improvement.
Since interes
t rates have subsequently been discounted as a realistic tool
in the battle 
against inflation, increasing the supply of labour has to be
the most obviou
s choice, given the number of lesser-paid workers across the
border.
But thi
s is rather more politically sensitive, since it raises concerns from
the tr
ade unions over the impact of labour imports on local wage rates.
The Busine
ss and Professionals Federation of Hong Kong commissioned a study
on local i
nflation late last year and concluded 'high inflation threatens
Hong Kong's 
economic success and has socially divisive effects on income
distribution'. 
The report claims labour importation, combined with fiscal
discipline and a 
sensible policy on property inflation, would help address
the root of this p
roblem.
The government has reacted positively. In January, it increased the 
number
of foreign workers that can be imported, from 13,000 to 25,000. This 
should
have a substantial impact on wage inflation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 144 ==============================================
Transaction #:    144       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-1590</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CLQCFAC7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9212
17
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma
rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig
ht </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAVID GOODHART </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the run-up 
to next year's single European market, many of the continent's
biggest emplo
yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British
Petroleum and
 Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will
today unveil fig
ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in
November.
Unemployme
nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere
in the indu
strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way
back into 
the limelight.
Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo
yment rates
could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t
he UK, the
EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J
apan and
non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r
ates down
to their levels.
One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs
 went to the registered
unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal
l in the EC's
unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8.
4 per cent at
the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par
t-timers and
70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European 
Commission
officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come 
on to the
jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they 
are
scarce.
Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor
kforce, a
static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor
tage of
workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu
ry.
Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent,
req
uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch
up
 with the rest of the industrialised world.
But the medium-term prospects ar
e not good. Industrialists point out that,
on top of the unemployment arisin
g from slower growth, is the extra loss of
jobs that will arise because of t
he single market. Companies' profit margins
in the new competitive environme
nt are coming under pressure so they are
cutting overheads in the form of jo
bs. The combined result is that for the
past year unemployment has been risi
ng in almost all countries, with the
exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi
de unemployment is now edging back up
towards 10 per cent - about 16m people
.
The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and
fi
re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and
ac
counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the
year
 to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to
propel
 the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent
later 
in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996.
The total sho
uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward
trend, which began
 with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave
joblessness at the 
end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the
1960s. The Commission e
stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000
merely to cut the unemploy
ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough
economic convergence criteria o
f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly
rule out.
EC labour markets we
re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was
only in the early 1
980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but
academics and policym
akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation
for what has gone wron
g over the past 20 years.
Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor
mance at the London School
of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe
an unemployment thus: 'The
reader may feel that we are not much further on i
n understanding the causes
of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are
 plenty of plausible
suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d
efinite proof.'
The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo
r 20 years,
although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the 
young and
the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c
urrent
wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is
 no
surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC

unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent.

There remain large differences between countries within the EC -
particular
ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley,
head of e
mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike
the United 
States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low
participati
on rates and a large black market.'
EC unemployment can be divided into thre
e groups: the high-unemployment
countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un
employment countries (the UK,
Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a
nd the low-unemployment
countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a
nd Luxembourg).
In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo
yment has
remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the
 UK have
ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio
 of
Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa
rd
trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start
ing
to shed jobs rapidly.
Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te
nd to have lower
participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, 
and higher
self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st
ems from
its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules 
for
employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi
s.
Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low
p
roductivity.
There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une
mployment in
Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet
ter-paid jobs
in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t
he EC's poor
employment performance which would help policymakers bring the 
rate down to
the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E
C Europe.
The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries
 (see
chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has
 been
below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit
h the
US and non-EC Europe.
Neither, as the UK government believes, can the 
failure be attributed to the
over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's
 own laisser-faire hire and
fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h
ighest unemployment in the
EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma
rkets, the Netherlands and
west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R
elated arguments about high
unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis
proved by the Nordic
countries, which have both, as well as historically low
 unemployment.
So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union 
influence
pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert 
Lindley,
of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi
ck,
believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing
full
-time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the
professions,
 to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has
merely made 'a
lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount
of work into 
smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers
in part-time 
employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade
and one-fifth o
f UK employment is now part-time.
The dominance of the insiders also helps e
xplain the failure of EC wage
rates to respond first to the external shocks 
of the 1970s oil price rises
and then to the high unemployment of the early 
1980s. Japanese workers took
a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at
 least for the past 10 years,
US workers have had static real wages. By cont
rast the EC saw a significant
increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai
n, for example, they rose by
39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent.
One re
ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the
high in
cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to
function a
s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed
make up ab
out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per
cent in the U
S and 18 per cent in Japan.
The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour 
market to accommodate the
longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. 
EC employers are
fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow,
 increasing the
number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic
h are often
insecure and low-paid.
To overcome the mismatch between the skil
ls and aptitudes of the long-term
unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing
ly on offer, the unemployed will
have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley 
says governments must help them
by adjusting their social security and taxat
ion systems to encourage the
outsiders back into the labour market, making i
t easier for people to
combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s
hould also spend less
on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds
 of the 2.25 per cent
of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed -
 and more on
retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures
.
Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would 
be
unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce
st
rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC
country
, fewer than the number 10 years ago.
There are, however, two grounds for op
timism about EC unemployment. First,
thanks to lower productivity and the gr
owth of labour-intensive services, it
now requires EC growth of only about 1
.5 per cent to create jobs, compared
with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco
nd, a growing number of politicians
in the EC are starting to focus on high 
unemployment as a structural, not
just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say
s: 'It's not much, but at least
it's a start.'
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Ti
mes </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 145 ==============================================
Transaction #:    145       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:45:29
Selec. Rec. #:     16

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Boolean Conjunctions:

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-1590</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CLQCFAC7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9212
17
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma
rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig
ht </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAVID GOODHART </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the run-up 
to next year's single European market, many of the continent's
biggest emplo
yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British
Petroleum and
 Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will
today unveil fig
ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in
November.
Unemployme
nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere
in the indu
strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way
back into 
the limelight.
Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo
yment rates
could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t
he UK, the
EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J
apan and
non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r
ates down
to their levels.
One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs
 went to the registered
unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal
l in the EC's
unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8.
4 per cent at
the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par
t-timers and
70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European 
Commission
officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come 
on to the
jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they 
are
scarce.
Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor
kforce, a
static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor
tage of
workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu
ry.
Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent,
req
uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch
up
 with the rest of the industrialised world.
But the medium-term prospects ar
e not good. Industrialists point out that,
on top of the unemployment arisin
g from slower growth, is the extra loss of
jobs that will arise because of t
he single market. Companies' profit margins
in the new competitive environme
nt are coming under pressure so they are
cutting overheads in the form of jo
bs. The combined result is that for the
past year unemployment has been risi
ng in almost all countries, with the
exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi
de unemployment is now edging back up
towards 10 per cent - about 16m people
.
The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and
fi
re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and
ac
counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the
year
 to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to
propel
 the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent
later 
in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996.
The total sho
uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward
trend, which began
 with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave
joblessness at the 
end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the
1960s. The Commission e
stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000
merely to cut the unemploy
ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough
economic convergence criteria o
f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly
rule out.
EC labour markets we
re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was
only in the early 1
980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but
academics and policym
akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation
for what has gone wron
g over the past 20 years.
Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor
mance at the London School
of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe
an unemployment thus: 'The
reader may feel that we are not much further on i
n understanding the causes
of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are
 plenty of plausible
suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d
efinite proof.'
The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo
r 20 years,
although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the 
young and
the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c
urrent
wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is
 no
surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC

unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent.

There remain large differences between countries within the EC -
particular
ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley,
head of e
mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike
the United 
States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low
participati
on rates and a large black market.'
EC unemployment can be divided into thre
e groups: the high-unemployment
countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un
employment countries (the UK,
Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a
nd the low-unemployment
countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a
nd Luxembourg).
In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo
yment has
remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the
 UK have
ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio
 of
Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa
rd
trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start
ing
to shed jobs rapidly.
Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te
nd to have lower
participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, 
and higher
self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st
ems from
its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules 
for
employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi
s.
Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low
p
roductivity.
There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une
mployment in
Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet
ter-paid jobs
in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t
he EC's poor
employment performance which would help policymakers bring the 
rate down to
the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E
C Europe.
The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries
 (see
chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has
 been
below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit
h the
US and non-EC Europe.
Neither, as the UK government believes, can the 
failure be attributed to the
over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's
 own laisser-faire hire and
fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h
ighest unemployment in the
EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma
rkets, the Netherlands and
west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R
elated arguments about high
unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis
proved by the Nordic
countries, which have both, as well as historically low
 unemployment.
So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union 
influence
pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert 
Lindley,
of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi
ck,
believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing
full
-time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the
professions,
 to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has
merely made 'a
lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount
of work into 
smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers
in part-time 
employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade
and one-fifth o
f UK employment is now part-time.
The dominance of the insiders also helps e
xplain the failure of EC wage
rates to respond first to the external shocks 
of the 1970s oil price rises
and then to the high unemployment of the early 
1980s. Japanese workers took
a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at
 least for the past 10 years,
US workers have had static real wages. By cont
rast the EC saw a significant
increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai
n, for example, they rose by
39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent.
One re
ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the
high in
cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to
function a
s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed
make up ab
out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per
cent in the U
S and 18 per cent in Japan.
The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour 
market to accommodate the
longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. 
EC employers are
fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow,
 increasing the
number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic
h are often
insecure and low-paid.
To overcome the mismatch between the skil
ls and aptitudes of the long-term
unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing
ly on offer, the unemployed will
have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley 
says governments must help them
by adjusting their social security and taxat
ion systems to encourage the
outsiders back into the labour market, making i
t easier for people to
combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s
hould also spend less
on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds
 of the 2.25 per cent
of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed -
 and more on
retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures
.
Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would 
be
unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce
st
rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC
country
, fewer than the number 10 years ago.
There are, however, two grounds for op
timism about EC unemployment. First,
thanks to lower productivity and the gr
owth of labour-intensive services, it
now requires EC growth of only about 1
.5 per cent to create jobs, compared
with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco
nd, a growing number of politicians
in the EC are starting to focus on high 
unemployment as a structural, not
just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say
s: 'It's not much, but at least
it's a start.'
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Ti
mes </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 146 ==============================================
Transaction #:    146       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-1590</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CLQCFAC7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9212
17
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma
rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig
ht </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAVID GOODHART </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the run-up 
to next year's single European market, many of the continent's
biggest emplo
yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British
Petroleum and
 Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will
today unveil fig
ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in
November.
Unemployme
nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere
in the indu
strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way
back into 
the limelight.
Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo
yment rates
could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t
he UK, the
EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J
apan and
non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r
ates down
to their levels.
One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs
 went to the registered
unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal
l in the EC's
unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8.
4 per cent at
the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par
t-timers and
70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European 
Commission
officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come 
on to the
jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they 
are
scarce.
Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor
kforce, a
static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor
tage of
workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu
ry.
Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent,
req
uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch
up
 with the rest of the industrialised world.
But the medium-term prospects ar
e not good. Industrialists point out that,
on top of the unemployment arisin
g from slower growth, is the extra loss of
jobs that will arise because of t
he single market. Companies' profit margins
in the new competitive environme
nt are coming under pressure so they are
cutting overheads in the form of jo
bs. The combined result is that for the
past year unemployment has been risi
ng in almost all countries, with the
exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi
de unemployment is now edging back up
towards 10 per cent - about 16m people
.
The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and
fi
re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and
ac
counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the
year
 to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to
propel
 the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent
later 
in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996.
The total sho
uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward
trend, which began
 with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave
joblessness at the 
end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the
1960s. The Commission e
stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000
merely to cut the unemploy
ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough
economic convergence criteria o
f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly
rule out.
EC labour markets we
re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was
only in the early 1
980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but
academics and policym
akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation
for what has gone wron
g over the past 20 years.
Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor
mance at the London School
of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe
an unemployment thus: 'The
reader may feel that we are not much further on i
n understanding the causes
of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are
 plenty of plausible
suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d
efinite proof.'
The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo
r 20 years,
although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the 
young and
the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c
urrent
wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is
 no
surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC

unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent.

There remain large differences between countries within the EC -
particular
ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley,
head of e
mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike
the United 
States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low
participati
on rates and a large black market.'
EC unemployment can be divided into thre
e groups: the high-unemployment
countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un
employment countries (the UK,
Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a
nd the low-unemployment
countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a
nd Luxembourg).
In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo
yment has
remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the
 UK have
ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio
 of
Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa
rd
trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start
ing
to shed jobs rapidly.
Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te
nd to have lower
participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, 
and higher
self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st
ems from
its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules 
for
employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi
s.
Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low
p
roductivity.
There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une
mployment in
Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet
ter-paid jobs
in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t
he EC's poor
employment performance which would help policymakers bring the 
rate down to
the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E
C Europe.
The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries
 (see
chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has
 been
below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit
h the
US and non-EC Europe.
Neither, as the UK government believes, can the 
failure be attributed to the
over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's
 own laisser-faire hire and
fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h
ighest unemployment in the
EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma
rkets, the Netherlands and
west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R
elated arguments about high
unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis
proved by the Nordic
countries, which have both, as well as historically low
 unemployment.
So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union 
influence
pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert 
Lindley,
of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi
ck,
believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing
full
-time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the
professions,
 to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has
merely made 'a
lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount
of work into 
smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers
in part-time 
employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade
and one-fifth o
f UK employment is now part-time.
The dominance of the insiders also helps e
xplain the failure of EC wage
rates to respond first to the external shocks 
of the 1970s oil price rises
and then to the high unemployment of the early 
1980s. Japanese workers took
a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at
 least for the past 10 years,
US workers have had static real wages. By cont
rast the EC saw a significant
increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai
n, for example, they rose by
39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent.
One re
ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the
high in
cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to
function a
s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed
make up ab
out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per
cent in the U
S and 18 per cent in Japan.
The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour 
market to accommodate the
longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. 
EC employers are
fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow,
 increasing the
number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic
h are often
insecure and low-paid.
To overcome the mismatch between the skil
ls and aptitudes of the long-term
unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing
ly on offer, the unemployed will
have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley 
says governments must help them
by adjusting their social security and taxat
ion systems to encourage the
outsiders back into the labour market, making i
t easier for people to
combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s
hould also spend less
on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds
 of the 2.25 per cent
of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed -
 and more on
retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures
.
Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would 
be
unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce
st
rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC
country
, fewer than the number 10 years ago.
There are, however, two grounds for op
timism about EC unemployment. First,
thanks to lower productivity and the gr
owth of labour-intensive services, it
now requires EC growth of only about 1
.5 per cent to create jobs, compared
with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco
nd, a growing number of politicians
in the EC are starting to focus on high 
unemployment as a structural, not
just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say
s: 'It's not much, but at least
it's a start.'
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Ti
mes </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 147 ==============================================
Transaction #:    147       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5793</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EICAFABGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni
ng </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PAUL ADAMS </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    LAGOS </DAT
ELINE>
<TEXT>
In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow
th, Nigeria at
90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa.
Until 1988
, when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a
national 
population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled
tag as t
he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they
regarded
 high population growth as healthy and saw little point in
controlling the r
ate of growth.
Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti
ng it among the
10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused 
a surprise:
Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat
ed numbers
by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol
itical
clout and revenue allocation.
The United Nations Population Fund has 
projected the average population
growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe
r cent (which would double the
population in about 30 years) with the birth 
rate at 45 per 1,000 persons
and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in
fant mortality rate of 96).
The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child
ren per woman, while the
national policy set a target of only four. Since th
e 1970s the urban
population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t
he rate of growth
in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent.
Generalising about
 Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very
diverse cultures, is 
often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to
education and the rol
e of women.
In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are
 far higher
than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio
n of birth
control is not widely accepted.
In the south-east there is a high
 percentage of Catholics especially among
the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin
e in social services during the 1990s has
halted the progress towards family
 planning clinics and universal primary
education, especially in the north, 
bolstering the influence of the Koranic
schools.
Even nationally, the UN pai
nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in
Nigeria has improved little ove
r the last decade. In general, they are
considered second-class citizens not
 by law but because of the social and
cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19
93 review of the national programme.
The literacy rate for women was 31 per 
cent (54 per cent for men) and more
than half of all Nigerian women were mar
ried at the age of 15.
The problem of education lies not just with women. As
 a prominent women's
group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f
our children per
woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that
 figure.
If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out
look for
economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t
he 1970s,
the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the
 level of
1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i
ncome to a
level three times that of Nigeria.
In January's budget speech the
 finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented
on three years of political unc
ertainty, capital flight government
over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt
her decline in GDP growth rate from
4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in 
1993. A comparison with the average
growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d
emonstrates the enormity of the task
involved in resuscitating the economy i
n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr
Kalu.
Since then strikes, shortages and a d
earth of foreign exchange have taken
the economy further down hill. Nigeria 
accounts for about half of West
Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on
ce poured into Nigeria for a
better life, the chances of reverse migration l
ook more likely.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>NGZ  Nigeria, Africa.
</
CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra
ms.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financia
l Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 148 ==============================================
Transaction #:    148       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8321</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHRD3AAZFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In 
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite 
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 149 ==============================================
Transaction #:    149       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8321</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHRD3AAZFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In 
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite 
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 150 ==============================================
Transaction #:    150       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-8321</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHRD3AAZFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In 
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite 
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 151 ==============================================
Transaction #:    151       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT934-12742</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DJYCQAE3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>931
025
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 OCT 93 / Survey of Germany (10): A story of bi
rths, deaths and marriages - The population is getting steadily older. The i
mplications must be faced now </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW GOWERS </BYL
INE>
<TEXT>
'THE Germans are dying out'. Back in the early 1980s, the slogan
 was
popularised by novelist Gunter Grass in the subtitle of his short story

Kopfgeburten. Ten years on, the prospect of a shrinking and ageing
populati
on is moving closer to reality - and is beginning to become a
central preocc
upation for Germany's chattering classes.
All over the land, people are marr
ying later, having fewer children and
living longer, with the result that th
e number of Germans has already been
declining for some time, to a current 7
2m out of a total population of 80m.
Within another decade, however, it is c
ertain that Germany's overall
population will embark on a steepening decline
.
Suddenly, the experts fear, Germany will face a structural crisis with whi
ch
it is ill- equipped to cope, as a shrinking working population bears the

burden of an increasing number of old-age pensioners and as Germans
themselv
es come to terms with the proportional increase of foreigners in
their midst
. The far-reaching consequences could affect every aspect of the
way the cou
ntry organises its political, economic, social and external
affairs.
'It is 
like having termites in your house,' says Meinhard Miegel, co-author
with St
efanie Wahl of a study of the demographic problem just published by
the Bonn
-based Institut fur Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft*. 'On the surface
everything
 looks fine, but all of a sudden it collapses. This house looks
sound at the
 moment and will continue to do so for some time to come. Then,
in the early
 part of the 21st century we will face a crisis.'
Mr Miegel uses colourful m
etaphors for effect. In a sense, the challenge
confronting Germany is the sa
me as that faced by most of the developed
world. In all the leading industri
al countries, pressures on the welfare
state are growing as a result of fall
ing birth rates, longer life- spans and
increasing immigration.
But Germany'
s problem is still more acute than that of its European
neighbours and its A
merican and Japanese trading partners, for several
reasons. First, it is fur
ther ahead in the population cycle: the number of
Germans started to decline
 20 years ago, while most European nations were
still in a phase of gentle g
rowth; as a result, Germany already has a
proportionately higher elderly pop
ulation.
Second, although the problem has been disguised up to now by waves 
of
immigration in the 1960s and late 1980s, that in itself has created
diffi
culties thanks to Germany's failure to integrate most of the new
inhabitants
 into its society. Such difficulties can only proliferate in the
years ahead
.
Third, Germany's history in this century has seen to it that population
de
cline in the early decades of the next will seem especially acute. In the
Na
zi years, there was a sudden surge in the birth rate as Germans were told
it
 was part of their patriotic duty to procreate. The offspring of that baby
b
oom are now getting on in years and in another decade will be starting to
di
e off in significant numbers.
The numbers can be stated with almost predesti
ned precision, for they
reflect a secular trend of falling birth rates and d
iminishing family sizes
dating back (with the notable exception of the Hitle
r years) to the early
1900s (see chart).
By the early 1970s, the generation 
of German children was less numerous than
that of their grandparents and the
 number of deaths overtook that of births.
Since then the margin has widened
: at the turn of the century, Mr Miegel
estimates, deaths will exceed births
 by 300,000 a year, rising by 2030 to a
staggering 600,000 - equivalent to e
liminating the city of Frankfurt every
year. Between now and 2030, the numbe
r of Germans will decline by about 15m
 -not far short of the current popula
tion of eastern Germany.
This is not a trend, say Mr Miegel and Ms Wahl, tha
t can be reversed through
some governmental magic wand. The individualistic 
Germans of today are not
going to be persuaded to breed either through dikta
t or economic incentive.
Even in eastern Germany - whose apparently more you
thful population results
mainly from a higher death rate under communism tha
nks to poor health care
and difficult working and living conditions - the bi
rth rate has plunged
since unification.
Nor does increasing immigration repr
esent much of a solution. True, the
arrival over the last three years of som
e 3.2m new inhabitants - including
asylum seekers and 1.4m 'Aussiedler' of G
erman origin, mainly from the
former Soviet empire - has served to compensat
e for the declining number of
Germans. But that is unlikely to continue. Ger
many has now tightened up its
asylum laws, and in any case is having severe 
difficulties integrating the
newcomers, many of whom end up on the unemploym
ent registers or outside the
formal labour market.
Simply to make up for the
 continuing fall in the German population, the
country would have to take 1.
5m immigrants in the 1990s and 13.8m more
between 2001 and 2030. It is incon
ceivable that German society, or the
country's political system, could handl
e an influx of this magnitude.
One consequence of all this is an already per
ceptible 'greying' of Germany.
Today, one fifth of the population is 20 or y
ounger and another fifth 60 or
over. In 2000, the under-20s will still repre
sent a fifth but the over-60s
will have reached a quarter of the total; by 2
030, only 16 per cent will be
under 20, 46 per cent will be between 20 and 6
0, and 38 per cent over 60. In
short, within less than 30 years, a diminishi
ng population of working age
will have to carry a roughly equal, and rising,
 number of people either too
young or too old to work  - at least under curr
ent laws.
The effects will be felt in every corner of society. School and un
iversity
rolls will fall; the shrinkage in the population between 20 and 60 
will
dictate changes in government policies towards the labour market; the
c
ountry's infrastructure needs will alter. Above all, the shifting shape of
t
he population will entail significant structural changes in the economy,
and
 in particular in the role of the state.
The most obvious burden will be on 
Germany's social welfare system. A rising
number of over-60s - and indeed, t
hanks to medical science, of over-80s -
spells increased spending on health 
care, pensions and old people's care.
Nobody seriously believes that Germany
 will be able to afford this without a
substantial restructuring of the welf
are state, involving some increase in
private-sector provision.
The economy 
will undergo other - subtler but no less significant - changes.
Property val
ues could fall as elderly people sell off assets to fund their
service needs
; the manufacturing sector will diminish in relation to
services; capital fo
r infrastructure projects will tend be raised on a
shorter term basis.
Mr Mi
egel and Ms Wahl even suggest that Germany's population shrinkage will
over 
time serve to reduce its economic might: 'In two generations, Germany
might 
under realistic assumptions only be a medium-sized European power. Its
popul
ation may not be, as today, the second largest in Europe after
Russia's, but
 perhaps the fourth or fifth largest after Russia, Ukraine and
possibly also
 France and Britain ..And its population will be among the
oldest in Europe 
and the world.'
What, then, is to be done? There are no easy answers. Ideall
y, says the
study, Germany would - while coming to terms with a some measure
 of
shrinkage in its population - seek to offset it by adopting sensible
pol
icies on immigration and on the integration of foreigners, for example by
al
lowing a greater number to become German citizens.
Unfortunately, nothing li
ke this is remotely on the cards. The word
Bevolkerungspolitik (population p
olicy) acquired an ugly ring in German
politics as a result of its abuse dur
ing the Nazi period, and the current
generation of politicians tends to rega
rd these issues as too hot to handle.
Nevertheless, they will not simply go 
away. If Germany does not start
sensibly to debate the structural questions 
raised by its shrinking
population soon, then it will find itself grappling 
with them in a much more
polarised political climate 10 years from now.
*Das
 Ende des Individualismus: die Kultur des Westens zerstort sich selbst;
Verl
ag Bonn Aktuell; September 1993
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germ
any, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public He
alth Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>

<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page V </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 152 ==============================================
Transaction #:    152       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-2782</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFOA5ADZFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 JUN 92 / Personal View: The economic costs of I
reland saying 'no' </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<T
EXT>
On Thursday, the Irish people go to the polls to decide whether to rati
fy
the Maastricht Treaty. Although in earlier Irish referenda on European
Co
mmunity membership and on the Single European Act, pro-EC majorities of 83
p
er cent and 70 per cent respectively were recorded, the result this time is

far from certain.
As in Denmark, a certain popular negativism towards politi
cs and politicians
is working against ratification. In addition, many are fr
ustrated at being
asked to vote on something they feel they do not understan
d, and are liable
to decide that, when in doubt, they should say 'no'.
There
 are also fears about an erosion of cherished neutrality. In addition,
the i
ntroduction by Mr Charles Haughey, the former taoiseach, of a protocol
on ab
ortion into the treaty has provoked a hostile reaction to ratification
from 
both sides in the controversy over abortion and the rights to travel
and inf
ormation.
It is impossible to say at this stage how heavily these emotional 
factors
will weigh against the immense economic benefits EC membership has b
rought
to Ireland, and the prospect of lower interest rates that European ec
onomic
and monetary union is expected to bring in its train.
Unhappily the r
eferendum issue has eclipsed a recent report on the Irish
economy by the Eco
nomic and Social Research Institute which is relevant to
the economic issues
 raised by the Maastricht Treaty. This report is the
first to give a conside
red reaction to the longer-term economic implications
of startling improveme
nts in the Irish balance of payments estimates
revealed earlier this year. T
hese revisions effectively doubled previous
forecasts of the 1991 Irish exte
rnal payments surplus and have positive
implications for the future prospect
s of the economy - which were already
bright, even before this new data beca
me available.
Last year's Irish current external surplus is now placed at 4.
5-5 per cent
of gross national product - almost twice the Japanese figure. F
or the
current year the institute forecast a rise in the external surplus to
 almost
7 per cent. It bases this on what it describes as a 'cautious' forec
ast of a
10 per cent rise in the volume of exports - a description justified
 by the
export returns for the early months of this year.
This performance r
eflects the remarkable improvement in competitiveness that
has taken place d
uring the past 10 years as a result of the incomes policies
pursued by succe
ssive Irish governments. Because of these policies,
industrial pay rates hav
e risen more slowly in every year since 1986 than is
the case for the group 
of countries with which Ireland mainly trades: the
UK, the US, France, Germa
ny, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands. According
to the central bank, this 
favourable pay trend, together with productivity
increases, has reduced Iris
h unit wage costs relative to those of these
trading partners by no less tha
n 30 per cent during the past decade. The
result has been a radical improvem
ent in the balance of payments - from a
disastrous 1981 deficit of almost 15
 per cent of GNP to the now-forecast
1992 surplus of almost 7 per cent.
With
 an external surplus running ahead of any other EC country and well over
dou
ble that forecast for Japan, the Irish economy is now remarkably
well-placed
 for a sustained high rate of growth. Even in the present year,
when high in
terest rates in Europe are holding back economic expansion, the
Irish growth
 rate is forecast at 3.25 per cent - higher than anywhere else
in the Organi
sation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Were it not
for some unwis
e handling of recent budgets, which has left the government
with too little 
room to stimulate growth by means of tax cuts, an even
higher rate of growth
 could currently be achieved.
In the institute's view, what is now holding b
ack even more rapid growth is
simply 'unduly pessimistic assessments of Iris
h economic prospects' and a
'misguided perception' in Ireland that 'economic
 prospects (are)
significantly higher' in the UK and US. This has led to per
verse capital
outflows, the reversal of which, the institute philosophically
 concludes,
must await the persuasive effect of 'allowing the facts to chang
e the
general perception within the financial community of Ireland's relativ
e
economic prospects'.
In Ireland itself, however, there is as yet little pu
blic recognition of
these growth possibilities. Consequently, the Maastricht
 referendum is
taking place in an unreal atmosphere of national pessimism in
duced by the
present record level of unemployment. This high unemployment is
 not
primarily a function of Irish economic performance but rather a consequ
ence
of past demographic forces - the fact that the traditionally high Irish

birth rate started to fall much later than in the rest of Europe, its recen
t
one-third decline dating back only to 1980 - and of the UK recession, whic
h
has reversed the traditional flow of Irish emigration across the Irish Sea
.
There is in consequence no recognition by Irish public opinion of the scal
e
of the growth that could be released by lower interest rates as and when
G
ermany eventually gets its affairs into order - or of the correlative
danger
, that a 'no' vote might have the effect of reversing the recent
steady down
ward movement in these rates.
For if the well-placed Irish economy has a vul
nerable spot, it is in the
extent of its dependence in recent years on non-r
esident subscriptions to
its domestic government borrowing. German instituti
ons have been happy in
recent years to secure a somewhat higher rate of retu
rn from Irish
government stock than they could achieve at home and have been
 encouraged to
do so by the strength of the Irish pound, which for more than
 five years has
without strain kept within 1 per cent of its central rate vi
s-a-vis the
D-Mark.
A 'no' vote on Thursday might disturb this confidence, e
specially as German
opinion, conscious of the strength of the Irish pound, m
ay not be quite as
well informed about the unusual growth prospects of the e
conomy - Ireland's
best-kept secret of recent times.
However, public opinion
 polls taken last week suggested a two-to-one
majority in favour of the trea
ty among those who had made up their minds -
with, however, up to one-third 
of those polled still undecided. Since then,
the leaders of the four main po
litical parties have issued a strongly worded
and comprehensive joint call f
or a 'yes' vote, which also has the support of
the trade unions, employers' 
and farmers' organisations.
Fears of a 'no' vote have been somewhat allayed 
by these developments,
although memories of the late swing which in 1986 con
verted a prospective
majority for divorce into a negative decision continue 
to haunt the
political establishment.
The author is the former Irish prime m
inister.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAG
E>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 153 ==============================================
Transaction #:    153       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-13560</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DDVCCAHWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children 
mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann
ing programme </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EMMA TUCKER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In a l
arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering
of head
scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy.
'There is no excuse f
or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr
El-Mouelhy, who has been runni
ng the family planning clinic since 1986.
'Anyone who wants it, can get it.'

Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family

planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established.
A 
blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a
better
 life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content
themselves with
 two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand
Mufti, Egypt's hi
ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet
entitled 'Birth Plan
ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that
family planning did 
not contradict the teachings of Allah.
The NPC has an office in every region
 of the country. Under a programme
sponsored by the United States Agency for
 International Development, Egypt
has been flooded with highly subsidised in
tra-uterine devices (IUDs).
The official figures are impressive. Total birth
s per year have dropped from
1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat
e has fallen from 39.8 per
1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive
 prevalence rate - women of
child-bearing age using contraception - has rise
n from 24.2 per cent at the
beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b
eginning of this decade.
Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th
at the total population
is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current
 rates it will take only
30 years for it to double to 114m.
The Egyptian Gaz
ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the
official population sta
tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report
which put the total popu
lation about 2m higher than the official count of
56.434m. In spite of effor
ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's
heavily burdened resources ar
e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent
of the population live on 4 p
er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo
along the Nile is enough to 
see how crowded the thin strips of green either
side of the river have becom
e.
Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University
,
says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2

per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He
believ
es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo
and Al
exandria continue to present an enormous challenge.
Statistics culled from t
he rural communities of upper Egypt are
significantly less impressive than t
hose from the big cities - tradition and
lack of resources combine to hinder
 the progress of the campaign. One aid
official pointed out that the proport
ion of women of childbearing age using
contraception - to over 40 per cent s
ince methods of birth control became
easily accessible - reflects a demand t
hat was already there.
'These are the women who wanted to use contraception 
but never had access,'
he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, 
and much more
investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are
 reluctant.'
Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, 
Dr Maher
Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in

particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is

trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean

that the effort is very stretched.
The biggest block to progress in rural ar
eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy
tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt
ies, pregnant for the tenth
time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro
ud of it; they told Dr El
Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping
 hands.
Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o
f
marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d
ay
at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular
ly
in rural areas, who has not already had a child.
Girls usually leave scho
ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the
legal minimum age for mar
riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep
reproducing until a son has been
 born.
There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor
k
against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate.
Al
though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams
h
ave been preaching against it in local mosques.
'The feminist movement is go
ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were
the pioneers of the movement i
n the Middle East, but now it is going
backwards.'
While the government is c
ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech
passes President Hosni M
ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem
of population growth - t
hose in the field feel the government should do more
to promote the cause. A
bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning
in Egypt comes from the
 government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind,
through air time on tel
evision and radio.
'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says 
one aid official.
'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the 
population council
so it can't be as effective as it should be.'
He worries 
that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is
artificial, and th
at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop
back.
Although Dr Mah
ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he
remains outspoken abo
ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,'
he says. 'The clock 
is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project
by just six months,
 you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.'
Back at the Zeinhom clin
ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work
there in 1986, she rarely
 saw a woman seeking contraception after just one
child.
'The traditional be
lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is
still strong here,' s
he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out
their families, or tak
e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a
thrill to see women and chi
ldren in good health.'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa
.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr
ograms.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>Th
e Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 154 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-13560</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DDVCCAHWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children 
mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann
ing programme </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EMMA TUCKER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In a l
arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering
of head
scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy.
'There is no excuse f
or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr
El-Mouelhy, who has been runni
ng the family planning clinic since 1986.
'Anyone who wants it, can get it.'

Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family

planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established.
A 
blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a
better
 life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content
themselves with
 two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand
Mufti, Egypt's hi
ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet
entitled 'Birth Plan
ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that
family planning did 
not contradict the teachings of Allah.
The NPC has an office in every region
 of the country. Under a programme
sponsored by the United States Agency for
 International Development, Egypt
has been flooded with highly subsidised in
tra-uterine devices (IUDs).
The official figures are impressive. Total birth
s per year have dropped from
1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat
e has fallen from 39.8 per
1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive
 prevalence rate - women of
child-bearing age using contraception - has rise
n from 24.2 per cent at the
beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b
eginning of this decade.
Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th
at the total population
is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current
 rates it will take only
30 years for it to double to 114m.
The Egyptian Gaz
ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the
official population sta
tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report
which put the total popu
lation about 2m higher than the official count of
56.434m. In spite of effor
ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's
heavily burdened resources ar
e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent
of the population live on 4 p
er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo
along the Nile is enough to 
see how crowded the thin strips of green either
side of the river have becom
e.
Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University
,
says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2

per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He
believ
es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo
and Al
exandria continue to present an enormous challenge.
Statistics culled from t
he rural communities of upper Egypt are
significantly less impressive than t
hose from the big cities - tradition and
lack of resources combine to hinder
 the progress of the campaign. One aid
official pointed out that the proport
ion of women of childbearing age using
contraception - to over 40 per cent s
ince methods of birth control became
easily accessible - reflects a demand t
hat was already there.
'These are the women who wanted to use contraception 
but never had access,'
he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, 
and much more
investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are
 reluctant.'
Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, 
Dr Maher
Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in

particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is

trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean

that the effort is very stretched.
The biggest block to progress in rural ar
eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy
tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt
ies, pregnant for the tenth
time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro
ud of it; they told Dr El
Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping
 hands.
Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o
f
marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d
ay
at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular
ly
in rural areas, who has not already had a child.
Girls usually leave scho
ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the
legal minimum age for mar
riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep
reproducing until a son has been
 born.
There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor
k
against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate.
Al
though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams
h
ave been preaching against it in local mosques.
'The feminist movement is go
ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were
the pioneers of the movement i
n the Middle East, but now it is going
backwards.'
While the government is c
ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech
passes President Hosni M
ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem
of population growth - t
hose in the field feel the government should do more
to promote the cause. A
bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning
in Egypt comes from the
 government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind,
through air time on tel
evision and radio.
'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says 
one aid official.
'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the 
population council
so it can't be as effective as it should be.'
He worries 
that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is
artificial, and th
at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop
back.
Although Dr Mah
ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he
remains outspoken abo
ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,'
he says. 'The clock 
is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project
by just six months,
 you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.'
Back at the Zeinhom clin
ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work
there in 1986, she rarely
 saw a woman seeking contraception after just one
child.
'The traditional be
lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is
still strong here,' s
he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out
their families, or tak
e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a
thrill to see women and chi
ldren in good health.'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa
.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr
ograms.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>Th
e Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 155 ==============================================
Transaction #:    155       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-13560</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DDVCCAHWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
422
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children 
mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann
ing programme </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EMMA TUCKER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In a l
arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering
of head
scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy.
'There is no excuse f
or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr
El-Mouelhy, who has been runni
ng the family planning clinic since 1986.
'Anyone who wants it, can get it.'

Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family

planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established.
A 
blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a
better
 life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content
themselves with
 two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand
Mufti, Egypt's hi
ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet
entitled 'Birth Plan
ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that
family planning did 
not contradict the teachings of Allah.
The NPC has an office in every region
 of the country. Under a programme
sponsored by the United States Agency for
 International Development, Egypt
has been flooded with highly subsidised in
tra-uterine devices (IUDs).
The official figures are impressive. Total birth
s per year have dropped from
1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat
e has fallen from 39.8 per
1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive
 prevalence rate - women of
child-bearing age using contraception - has rise
n from 24.2 per cent at the
beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b
eginning of this decade.
Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th
at the total population
is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current
 rates it will take only
30 years for it to double to 114m.
The Egyptian Gaz
ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the
official population sta
tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report
which put the total popu
lation about 2m higher than the official count of
56.434m. In spite of effor
ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's
heavily burdened resources ar
e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent
of the population live on 4 p
er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo
along the Nile is enough to 
see how crowded the thin strips of green either
side of the river have becom
e.
Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University
,
says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2

per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He
believ
es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo
and Al
exandria continue to present an enormous challenge.
Statistics culled from t
he rural communities of upper Egypt are
significantly less impressive than t
hose from the big cities - tradition and
lack of resources combine to hinder
 the progress of the campaign. One aid
official pointed out that the proport
ion of women of childbearing age using
contraception - to over 40 per cent s
ince methods of birth control became
easily accessible - reflects a demand t
hat was already there.
'These are the women who wanted to use contraception 
but never had access,'
he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, 
and much more
investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are
 reluctant.'
Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, 
Dr Maher
Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in

particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is

trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean

that the effort is very stretched.
The biggest block to progress in rural ar
eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy
tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt
ies, pregnant for the tenth
time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro
ud of it; they told Dr El
Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping
 hands.
Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o
f
marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d
ay
at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular
ly
in rural areas, who has not already had a child.
Girls usually leave scho
ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the
legal minimum age for mar
riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep
reproducing until a son has been
 born.
There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor
k
against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate.
Al
though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams
h
ave been preaching against it in local mosques.
'The feminist movement is go
ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were
the pioneers of the movement i
n the Middle East, but now it is going
backwards.'
While the government is c
ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech
passes President Hosni M
ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem
of population growth - t
hose in the field feel the government should do more
to promote the cause. A
bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning
in Egypt comes from the
 government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind,
through air time on tel
evision and radio.
'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says 
one aid official.
'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the 
population council
so it can't be as effective as it should be.'
He worries 
that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is
artificial, and th
at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop
back.
Although Dr Mah
ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he
remains outspoken abo
ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,'
he says. 'The clock 
is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project
by just six months,
 you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.'
Back at the Zeinhom clin
ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work
there in 1986, she rarely
 saw a woman seeking contraception after just one
child.
'The traditional be
lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is
still strong here,' s
he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out
their families, or tak
e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a
thrill to see women and chi
ldren in good health.'
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa
.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr
ograms.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>Th
e Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VII </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 156 ==============================================
Transaction #:    156       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-12650</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CGQBQAEJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
717
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 JUL 92 / German Interest Rate Rise: Germany fa
ces investment fall and slower growth </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CHRISTOPHER
 PARKES </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    BONN </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
THE Bundesbank's act
ion will expose the German economy to the risk of
falling investment, slower
 recovery and increased long-term interest rates,
German bankers, industrial
ists and economists warned yesterday.
However, the Bonn government, which ro
utinely supports Bundesbank decisions
and is careful to show respect for its
 independence, gave few clues to its
real feelings.
Mr Theo Waigel, finance 
minister, said he expected the discount rate rise
would 'help bring monetary
 growth nearer to the target range without
burdening economic development in
 east and west Germany'.
Others were more outspoken. Mr Klaus Friedrich, soo
n to take over as chief
economist at the Dresdner Bank, said the decision wa
s 'brave but wrong'.
He took issue with the anti-inflationary arguments of M
r Helmut Schlesinger,
Bundesbank president. All experts agreed inflation was
 heading down in any
case, he said, and there was no need for the extra down
ward pressure which
would come from yesterday's interest rate increase.
Mr W
illi Leibfritz, chief economic analyst at the respected Ifo economics
instit
ute in Munich, said he thought the central bank's move might have been
less 
dramatic had economic growth not been so strong in the first quarter.
He acc
epted the bank's top priority had to be control of monetary growth.
However,
 the move represented a risk to recovery. Investment in construction
and pla
nt could be hit, demand would be depressed, profits be reduced and
the perio
d of economic weakness could be prolonged, Mr Leibfritz suggested.
'It is ce
rtainly very difficult to find the balance between fighting
inflation and fi
ghting economic down-swing.
'After last December's discount rate increase, l
ong-term interest rates
fell, and it is possible the Bundesbank expects a si
milar effect this time.
But I rather expect long-term rates could increase a
 little or at least not
be reduced,' he added.
The BDI federation of German 
industries said it doubted that the rates
increase would damp monetary growt
h quickly. 'The measures need time to
work,' it said. Meanwhile, the risks t
o Germany's performance should not be
under-estimated. Economic reconstructi
on in the east relied on heavy
investments.
The ZDH association, representin
g small businesses, said its members, with
limited if any access to capital 
markets, would be hit hard by inevitable
increases in overdraft charges and 
suffer liquidity problems.
Despite the doubts, all branches of industry acce
pted that the bank had to
act. The BDI said that while there was no ideal so
lution, 'the considerable
over-stepping of money supply targets demands a cl
ear stability signal.
'Only tight money can guarantee a stable currency'.
Th
e following is the text of the statement issued by the Bundesbank
yesterday 
(translation by Reuters):
The Central Council of the Bundesbank, at its meet
ing today in the presence
of Economics Minister Jurgen W Mollermann, conduct
ed a review of the 1992
money supply target and the current situation in mon
etary policy. It made
the following decisions:
The German Bundesbank maintai
ns the money supply goal established in
Decemeber last year, which envisages
 an increase in M3 money supply of 3.5
to 5.5 per cent from fourth quarter 1
991 to fourth quarter 1992. The
assumptions which were the basis of the mone
y supply goal at that time are
not essentially different today.
The discount
 rate of the German Bundesbank will be raised with effect from
July 17 from 
eight per cent to 8.75 per cent. With this measure, the
Bundesbank aims to s
tem price pressures, monetary growth and excessive
growth in credit volume a
nd also to strengthen confidence in maintaining the
stability of the mark in
 the currently difficult conditions in united
Germany.
 --------------------
--------------------------------------------------
GERMAN INTEREST RATES
 --
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1931: C
reditanstalt
1933: Hitler takes power
1939-45: Second World War
1948: Birth 
of the D-Mark
1949: Federal Republic established
1958: D-Mark becomes conver
tible
1961: First D-Mark revaluation
1966: Chancellor Ludwig Erhard forced o
ut by high interest rates
1969: Second D-Mark revaluation
1973: Bretton Wood
s system collapses
1979: European Monetary system set up
1982: Chancellor He
lmut Schmidt quits after Bundesbank tightening
      causes recession
1990: 
German reunification
1991: Maastricht treaty agreed
 -----------------------
-----------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial T
imes </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 157 ==============================================
Transaction #:    157       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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Selec. Rec. #:     23

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-8776</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CHLBKAEMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9208
08
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 AUG 92 / Houses: the myths and the reality: Joh
n Authers explains why the market has sagged. He says houses look good value
 against past trends, but buyers should forget about making big profits </HE
ADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN AUTHERS </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
LIKE medieval quacks ar
ound an ailing body, British building societies are
suggesting their cures f
or the sickly housing market. But why should anyone
believe that the market 
needs special medicine to aid recovery? Since house
prices have fallen on av
erage by about a quarter in real terms since July
1989, some properties are 
beginning to seem good value.
As the charts on this page show, if you strip 
out inflation, houses are no
longer expensive judged against the trend of th
e past quarter-century.
Moreover, house prices as a proportion of average ea
rnings - a measure of
what buyers can afford - are now close to their lowest
 for 25 years.
As in any other market, activity can be expected to revive wh
en demand and
supply are brought into balance by a mutually convenient price
; and present
prices appear, by historical criteria, to be not far from this
 point. But
the alarm is still easy to understand.
Weakness in the housing m
arket hits British consumers more forcibly than
most other economic ills ass
ailing the world - for example, exchange rate
fluctuations. This is partly b
ecause of the large debts incurred to buy
houses, and partly because of a de
eply ingrained belief among the British
public that house prices would surf 
comfortably ahead of inflation for ever.
This 'bubble mentality' developed p
articularly strongly during the 1980s -
the decade of Thatcherism which prod
uced a property-owning democracy and
bull markets in everything. House-buyin
g was then endowed with an
unjustified illusion of grandeur. Houses were not
 only somewhere to live.
They became investments - and, with hindsight, unfo
rtunately speculative
ones. Now, although house prices may seem ready to rec
over, buyers and
sellers must first attain a more realistic view of the mark
et. It is no
longer, as a generation came to believe, a perpetual motion mac
hine which
will carry every house owner effortlessly from debt to high prosp
erity.
It is not surprising that people were gripped by this idea. The graph
 of
actual prices shows that Pounds 10,000 invested in housing in 1955 was w
orth
Pounds 300,000 25 years later. It is the kind of comparison which inspi
res
feelings of pride and security among many householders, But these teleph
one
number figures are partly an illusion. Most of the rise represents
infla
tion. The line below shows that, in the real world, house prices
outstripped
 the rise in the retail prices index by only 2.2 percentage
points a year on
 average during the 1970s and 1980s.
In that period, house prices grew hardl
y faster than average earnings (if
both are adjusted for price inflation). R
eal earnings rose by an average of
1.7 per cent a year. These figures may in
spire comfort, but nothing more.
But the 'boom' periods of the early 1970s, 
late 1970s and late 1980s
provided opportunities for big profits. These help
ed establish the myth that
borrowing to buy a house would always be a good i
nvestment.
Examined more closely, the figures tell a rather different story.
 Increases
in average earnings usually cause an increase in house prices. Ea
rnings have
grown faster than inflation since the Second World War, helping 
housing
prices to inflate more quickly than most other products. But the phe
nomenon
is complex. The most important measure of whether it will be worthwh
ile to
buy a house is 'affordability,' generally measured as the ratio of av
erage
house prices to average earnings.
This ratio varies widely and reveals
 a lot about the present state of the
housing market. Historically, the aver
age house normally is worth about 3.5
times the average salary. If this rati
o gets much above 4.0, prices come
under pressure because houses are hard to
 afford. In 1973, the ratio hit
4.95. The next year it was 4.25, and the fol
lowing year 3.65. But this was
during an era when inflation topped 20 per ce
nt. So affordability could
improve without big reductions in nominal house p
rices.
In the 1990s, with wages rising more slowly, affordability could be a
chieved
only by price cuts.
In 1988, the ratio was 4.25. This rose to 4.43 t
he following year, and moved
to 4.34 in 1990. According to the Building Soci
eties' Association (BSA),
this fell to 3.90 last year and to 3.55 in the fir
st quarter of this year.
That ratio now is probably below 3.5. Judging by th
e Nationwide house price
index figures recently released, and not shown in t
he lower graph, houses
are roughly as affordable as they have been for two d
ecades - a good sign.
But it does not tell the whole story.
Prices on their 
own do not reflect the true cost to a consumer of buying
their house. Homes 
are usually bought with the help of a mortgage, on which
interest rates vary
. And while house prices have come down from the
unrealistic peaks of 1989, 
real interest rates (compared with inflation)
have risen. The last housing b
oom was propelled by interest rates which were
lower than the inflation rate
, so mortgage debts were being eroded by
inflation while the value of the as
set on which they were secured was rising
steeply. In the 1990s, the opposit
e has been happening.
The BSA's figures for average initial mortgage repayme
nts as a percentage of
average earnings and income show that 1990 was a trul
y excessive year. Then,
repayments took up 26.3 per cent of average income. 
In 1989, this figure was
22.8 per cent. In 1988, it was 17.9 per cent. This 
ratio began to fall after
the base rate cut in October 1990 which accompanie
d the decision to join the
European exchange rate mechanism. It dropped to 2
5 per cent by the beginning
of last year and had reached 19 per cent in the 
first quarter of '92.
The BSA says this extended measure of affordability is
 almost exactly equal
to its level in 1980, and a third lower than its peak 
only two years ago.
But this measure still gives rise to concern because it 
never reached
similar heights during the domestic property boom of the early
 1970s - it
stood at 15 per cent in 1973-74 having stood below 13 per cent f
rom 1969 to
1972. To make houses truly cheap to buy, then, either prices mus
t come down
further or mortgage rates must fall. Thus, the building societie
s' clamour
for lower base rates begins to look understandable.
So, on a long
-term perspective, houses look cheap but debt is expensive. In
the short ter
m, though, prices could well dip below their historic trend,
just as three y
ears ago they surged above it. Do any special features of
supply and demand 
suggest a change to this trend?
The market for housing is 'sticky,' with sup
ply constricted by several
factors which helped to produce the modest house 
price inflation of the past
50 years. Most obviously, homes take time to bui
ld (usually about 20
months), so supply will not always be able to keep up w
ith a sudden increase
in demand. This opens the prospect of periodic house p
rice inflation
'bubbles.'
Planning restrictions imposed by local authorities
 help further to constrict
supply. Councils tend to be strictest in overcrow
ded areas where housing
demand is highest.
Then, as Barry Riley discusses in
 his column on this page, there are
repossessions. A few years ago, nobody w
ould have regarded them as a
separate source of supply. Things are different
 now. Lenders repossessed
35,750 homes in the first half of this year, mainl
y because householders
could not afford to keep up their repayments. Attempt
s usually are made to
sell them quickly, increasing the downward pressure on
 prices. The market
also is affected by the need of elderly people to sell t
heir houses to pay
for expensive medical care. In the longer term, this coul
d help to increase
supply and so to depress prices.
The effect of demographi
c changes on demand is also likely to weaken prices.
After the Second World 
War and up to 1964, the birth rate grew; then it fell
considerably. People b
orn in 1964 are only 28 this year. So demand from
first-time buyers, who ten
d to be between 20 and 35, is likely to be
maintained for a few years - but 
it will drop by the end of this decade.
This often is described over-emotive
ly as a 'time bomb'. But the figures do
suggest that the market cannot pick 
up at the end of the 1990s in the way it
did at the end of the 1980s.
The po
st-war growth in owner-occupation suggests a further negative
influence in t
he long term. The higher the proportion of the population
which already owns
 a house, then, theoretically, the lower the potential for
growth in demand.
 Roughly a quarter of Britain's housing stock was
owner-occupied in 1945. Th
is rose to 42.3 per cent in 1960, 50 per cent in
1970 and 55.5 per cent in 1
980. It now stands at around 67.5 per cent. The
BSA's research suggests that
 unmet demand for owner-occupation has remained
fairly static over the past 
few years, but it is hard to see any scope for
continued significant increas
es.
So is this the time to buy? The question should not be imbued with a spi
rit
of speculation. There is no reason to expect a take-off in property pric
es,
or a return to the Thatcher era illusion of housing as a high-return
inv
estment. But all the fundamentals, with the arguable exception of the
cost o
f buying houses, do point to the market offering fair value at
present. Home
s are no longer overpriced, if past trends are a guide, and
there is little 
reason to fear a repeat of the horrors which hit those who
bought at the pea
k in 1987 and 1988.
Thus, the next two years should be a good time to buy - 
although not a good
time to make a killing. Indeed, those buying now could s
ee the value of
their purchase decline somewhat for a year or two if prices 
fall under the
trend line.
The fundamentals do not seem to justify any attem
pted miracle cure along the
lines suggested this week by the building societ
ies. The ultimate cure,
which depends on many external factors, will be lowe
r interest rates.
Dream homes - nightmare scenarios: Page III
Mortgage lende
rs go for caution: Page IV
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Lo
ndon Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-6881</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DHYB7AC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9308
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 AUG 93 / Prolonged pangs of a difficult birth: 
Martin Wolf asks whether the gestation of Emu is following the Maastricht ti
metable, or could delivery be easier? </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By MARTIN WOLF
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Is the European Community's project for economic and monet
ary union alive or
did it die with the old exchange rate mechanism?
The achi
evement of Emu is indeed doubtful, but not because of the change in
the ERM,
 which is perfectly compatible with a move to Emu. The breakdown in
the ERM 
matters more because of what it signifies. Ultimately, a move to Emu
require
s a political decision to forge a common monetary policy. The
Maastricht tre
aty did not ensure that this decision would be taken. Events
since then have
 cast serious doubt on whether the political will to do so
exists.
A monetar
y union could be forged tomorrow. All that would be needed is for
the centra
l banks of two or more EC member countries to make an open-ended
commitment 
to support one another's currencies and, by implication, pursue a
joint mone
tary policy. To the extent that investors would try to convert one
money int
o another, the quantity of the weaker currency would shrink, while
that of t
he stronger would grow. But aggregate money supply of the union
would be una
ffected. Since a central bank can always create its own currency
without lim
it, such a union is secure, provided the mutual commitment
remains in force.

The difference between such an arrangement and the ERM is like that between

chalk and cheese. With a limited commitment by the central bank responsible

for the strongest currency, the cost of maintaining the weakest falls
princ
ipally on those responsible for the weaker ones. To reinforce their
exchange
 rates they must increase the cost of speculation, which also raises
the cos
ts on domestic borrowers. Since there is a limit to the monetary
stringency 
political realities will allow, no narrow-band parity can be
fully credible.

An open-ended mutual commitment is not the only way, in principle, to ensur
e
the main benefits of monetary union. One alternative would be a 19th-centu
ry
gold standard; another would be a currency board, which is an obligation 
to
convert foreign currency into its domestic equivalent at a fixed price. B
ut
the former was successful because it originated from the use of gold as
d
omestic money, developed via a commitment to convertibility of paper money
i
nto gold and, above all, flourished when the political commitment to price
s
tability was unquestioned. As for the latter, it demands a credible
subordin
ation of one country's money to another. That may be plausible for
the Hong 
Kong dollar vis a vis the US dollar, it is not for the French franc
vis a vi
s the D-mark.
The EC, in short, cannot be a little bit pregnant with Emu. Ho
wever
protracted and complex the courtship, participants must achieve
consum
mation, conception, pregnancy and birth at one specific moment. That
moment 
need not be indicated in advance. But there must be a decisive shift
from se
parate monies with separate monetary policies to a single monetary
policy an
d perhaps a single currency.
The apparent precision of the Maastricht treaty
 about how this is to happen
is deceptive. In fact the treaty represented a 
series of awkward, probably
unworkable, compromises: between the ostensible 
German willingness to accept
the ultimate goal of Emu, if, like Saint August
ine, 'not yet', and the
desire of the French to move as quickly as possible;
 between the need for
universal participation and German suspicion of some p
articipants, such as
Italy; and between the desire to eliminate the Bundesba
nk's hegemony and its
determination to preserve it as long as possible.
To p
ut off the evil day, while weeding out those deemed unworthy, the
Germans in
sisted on tough convergence criteria; to ensure their happy day
would come, 
the French and Italians obtained what looks like a binding 1999
deadline; to
 give hope to all who want to join Emu, the convergence criteria
are ambiguo
us; and to give them still greater hope, the European Council is
to decide w
hether a country meets the conditions on the basis of a qualified
majority v
ote. It is difficult to imagine a treaty more conducive to mutual
recriminat
ion.
The transition laid out in the treaty contained three principal element
s:
Convergence criteria on inflation, long-term interest rates, fiscal
defic
its, public debt and participation in the ERM;
A time-table that is both lon
g - up to six years - and inflexible; and
A leap from the ERM to Emu managed
 by an untried and as yet non-existent
institution.
The most problematic of 
these is the first, not merely in light of events,
but even in principle. Th
e convergence criteria neither make much sense in
themselves, nor, at least 
as important, help Germany to include those it
wants to include and exclude 
those it wants to exclude. They do not, in
other words, help to solve the fu
ndamental political challenge posed by the
move to Emu.
The criteria in the 
treaty were that a country shall possess:
A currency that 'shall have respec
ted the normal fluctuation margins
provided for by the ERM of the European M
onetary System without severe
tensions for at least the last two years befor
e the examination';
'An average nominal long-term interest rate that does no
t exceed by more
than 2 percentage point that of, at most, the three best-pe
rforming member
states in terms of price stability';
An average rate of infl
ation that 'does not exceed by more than 1 1/2
percentage points that of, at
 most, the three best performing member
states'; and
A sustainable governmen
t financial position. This is defined, first by
'whether the ratio of the pl
anned or actual government deficit to gross
domestic product exceeds' 3 per 
cent, 'unless either the ratio has declined
substantially and continuously a
nd reached a level that comes close to' 3
per cent or 'the excess . . . is o
nly exceptional and temporary'; and,
second, by 'whether the ratio of govern
ment debt to GDP exceeeds 60 per
cent, 'unless the ratio is sufficiently dim
inishing and approaching' 60 per
cent 'at a satisfactory pace'.
Is the fate 
of Europe to hang on such obscurities? Consider just a few of
the problems.

The interest rate criterion is not independent, since it will be met if Emu

itself is credible. Meanwhile, the inflation criterion is merely a relative,

not an absolute, one; and assessment of whether or not it has been achieved

is not to be qualified by economic performance.
Most important, however, ar
e the fiscal tests, the ones being most
comprehensively violated at the mome
nt (see chart). These tests, too, have
only limited logic behind them. Above
 all, as Mr Helmut Schlesinger, the
Bundesbank president, has realised, they
 do not differentiate satisfactorily
between countries the Germans might acc
ept inside Emu and those they would
not. If Belgium, for example, were to be
 included, despite its fiscal policy
failure, how could Spain be excluded, j
ust because it failed some other
test?
These defects in the criteria are a m
atter of some importance. This is not
because successful passing of the test
s is a necessary or sufficient
condition for a workable Emu. On the contrary
, some seem irrelevant, even
perverse. The limitation on fiscal deficits in 
a monetary union with
exiguous fiscal transfers seems particularly inappropr
iate. Interestingly,
almost the only criterion that might make sense - the l
imit on fiscal debt -
is the one over which Mr Schlesinger has indicated gre
atest flexibility. The
explanation for this must be political, since the ins
olvency of a member
state might indeed imperil the European Central Bank's i
ndependence.
The reason the defects matter is rather different. The tests ar
e essentially
an initiation ritual. Applicants for Emu are required to show 
how committed
to monetary stability they are. The problem is that it may pro
ve impossible
to agree on who will have passed, unless, as now seems rather 
probable,
everyone is agreed to have failed.
The collapse of the old ERM doe
s not change much directly. On the contrary,
it would almost certainly be ea
sier to meet the ERM criterion with 15 per
cent bands, if these became 'the 
normal fluctuation margins', than with the
2 1/4 per cent bands, which were 
deemed normal before. What the collapse of
the ERM shows is that the initiat
ion itself has been too hard. This
undermines mutual trust and shakes the po
litical commitment to Emu.
For this, there have been two reasons. The first 
is that the institution in
charge of this rite of passage has an incentive t
o ensure everyone fails.
The second is that German unification has given the
 Bundesbank the
opportunity, almost the obligation, to pursue policies likel
y to ensure they
all do. Ironically, German unification was both a spur for 
the Maastricht
treaty and the main reason why it will not be achieved in the
 way once
assumed.
Unification disrupted the ERM by giving the anchor countr
y relatively high
inflation, which drove real short-term interest rates to i
ntolerable levels
elsewhere in the ERM. Unification also demanded a short-te
rm real
appreciation of the D-Mark, in order to transfer resources from the 
current
account surplus into eastern Germany. In a fixed exchange rate regim
e, the
needed appreciation could only be achieved by higher inflation in Ger
many
than elsewhere, which, given the Bundesbank's objectives, also imposed 
a
fierce disinflation on Germany's partner countries. Finally, that pressure

also created the vicious circle of speculation, higher interest rates and
s
till more speculation which dissolved the old ERM.
What are the alternatives
 now?
One possibility would be to press on regardless. Participants might ho
pe
that the problem posed by German unification is now slowly passing, as
in
terest rates fall and the D-Mark depreciates against the dollar, the yen
and
 even the currencies of other EC member states. It would then be possible
ei
ther to move back into narrow bands, however tentatively, or, more
sensibly,
 to leave the ERM as it is until the move to Emu. Presumably, the
failure to
 meet the fiscal criteria would be judged with the benevolence
implied by th
e treaty's ambiguities.
A second option would be to accept that the politica
l will to make this
transition is lacking. Emu entails a high degree of mutu
al trust. While the
move to Emu could indeed continue more or less as planne
d, at least on
paper, the political committment to it must be doubted. This 
is not just a
matter of the difficult passage of the treaty in many member c
ountries,
though that is revealing. Nor is it a question of the lack of enth
usiasm of
the Germans, important though that must be. The most significant p
oint is
that the Bundesbank policies which disrupted the ERM were pursued, w
ithout
serious internal protest, on the basis of that institution's debatabl
y
extreme view of German monetary and economic developments. Never mind Mr
K
ohl's pro-European rhetoric. Never mind Germany's ostensible commitment to
t
he ambiguous Maastricht treaty. Just look at the reality of German fiscal
an
d monetary policies.
A third option then would be to force the issue. Those 
who do trust one
another (if any) could make the needed mutual commitment no
w. There is
nothing to suggest the decision would be any easier in 1997 or 1
999. Worst
of all, if member states just stagger on, pretending to try to ac
hieve these
criteria, the political and economic costs for Europe could prov
e
prohibitive. Whatever the economic advisability of Emu itself, it must be

senseless to spend six years, perhaps more, subordinating everything to that

aim within a recession-mired, high-unemployment EC economy.
Emu requires th
e making of an irrevocable decision. The Maastricht treaty
appeared to mean 
that the decision had already been made. But this was
deceptive. Those count
ries that could plausibly share a successful Emu - a
far smaller number than
 the 12, both now and for the foreseeable future -
should either take the le
ap or shelve the idea. If this marriage is to
happen at all, it should be ma
de now.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
----
The ERM dissolves
 ----------------------------------------------------
-------------------
 -1962:  European Commission sets out goal of Emu
 -1970
:  Werner plan aim of Emu by 1980
 -1973:  Final break-up of Bretton Woods s
ystem
 -1979:  European Monetary System (EMS) starts
 -1987:  European Singl
e Act takes effect, laying down goal of Emu. Last
         general alignment
 before 1992
 -1990:  German unification. Sterling joins the ERM
 -1991:  Ma
astricht summit lays down firm Emu timetable
 -1992:  Sterling/Lira leave ER
M
 -1993:  ERM moves to 15 per cent bands
 -1994:  'Second stage' of Emu to 
start, with creation of European
         Monetary Institute
 -1997
or 1999:
 'Third stage' of Emu envisaged, with permanent fixing of
         currencie
s for EC countries meeting convergence criteria
 ---------------------------
--------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>

<CN>QRZ  European Economic Community (EC).
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN
>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>
CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Londo
n Page 13 </PAGE>
</DOC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-2918</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIOBXAD7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 SEP 92 / Foreign Exchanges: Realignment weakens
 D-Mark </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JAMES BLITZ </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE REALIGNM
ENT of the European Monetary System weakened the D-Mark against
most currenc
ies yesterday, but the market remained uncertain about the
immediate future 
for exchange rates, writes James Blitz.
The devaluation of the Italian lira 
and the cut in the Bundesbank's interest
rates were intended to convince dea
lers that the EMS is a fixed system that
will not disappear, whatever the ou
tcome of this weekend's referendum in
France on the Maastricht treaty.
The B
undesbank showed that it was prepared to bow to international pressure
to lo
wer interest rates if that would help a realignment of the ERM. Mr Jim
O'Nei
ll, head of research at Swiss Bank Corp in London, said: 'Although the
rate 
cuts were small, the principle of bowing to int-ernational pressure was
sign
ificant. What we saw yesterday may even be the birth of the new European
Cen
tral Bank.'
Three factors could still upset the EMS structure in the short t
erm. The
first is Sunday's referendum, the shadow of which is now fully over
 the
market. Sterling's performance against the D-Mark yesterday reflected t
he
uncertainty, with the currency peaking at DM2.8250 overnight, but closing
 in
London at DM2.8125, up more than 2 pfennigs from Friday's close. If the

French vote No, the pressure on sterling will be intense on Monday morning,

and a rise in UK base rates may be unavoidable.
The second pressure will com
e if the Germans do not reduce interest rates
again. The best interpretation
 of the Bundesbank's move yesterday was that
rates had peaked. Probably the 
worst came from Mr Norbert Walter, chief
economist at Deutsche Bank in Frank
furt, who said there will not be another
rate cut before mid-1993. Countries
 seeking interest rate reductions, such
as the UK, Spain and Portugal, may q
uestion the validity of a German-led
system again.
The third pressure would 
come if the US dollar weakens again, forcing a new
flight into D-Marks. The 
dollar peaked at DM1.5155 overnight and ended in
London at DM1.4855, up 3 1/
2 pfennigs from Friday's London close. In New
York it closed mildly below th
e London finish at DM1.4821. The narrower
interest rate differential between
 the US and Germany caused Mr Julian
Simmonds, head of foreign exchange at C
itibank, to declare that the dollar's
fall has bottomed out. But the US econ
omy remains fundamentally weak and, in
the run-up to the US election, there 
could be pressure on the currency
again.
The one European currency that was 
actively bought was the lira. But it
closed in London at L793 per D-Mark, ha
ving opened at L784.62, raising fears
that the devaluation had been too smal
l.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 33 </PAGE>
</D
OC>

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-808</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI0DNAGMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>94092
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe 
(3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im
plications of an ageing population </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EVA KALUZYNSKA
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati
on is already aged
65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the
 rest of the world.
'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the
 century,' said Dr
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia
lising in trends
affecting Europe.
There are relatively minor variations in 
birth and death rates among the 17
countries in the European Economic Area (
EEA), but the picture is very
clear. Any company considering relocation will
 obviously factor in current
levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre
ece, Spain and the UK;
highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer
s must tune into
demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l
ong-term
personnel policy off the ground.
'Companies may be thinking of movi
ng now to a country where costs are low,
but they must plan now to keep them
 low,' said employee-benefits specialist
David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo
wndes.
The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro
stat,
in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na
tural
population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra
te
remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from

11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand.

Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU)
,
are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only 
in
Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor
e
children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the

EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demographers are ringing alarm 
bells about the need to adjust policies now,
both at company and government 
level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said
Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro
stat's project on demography. 'In the
next five to 10 years it is going to h
ave the most acute problems in
adjusting to an ageing workforce.'
Italy and 
Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious
in France
, which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be
mothers. The U
K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what
Cruijsen calls an abn
ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen
elsewhere in Europe.
The o
verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent,
rather t
han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the
existing pool 
of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts
agree on the need
 for two significant shifts in policy and attitude:
postponing the age of re
tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour
force. 'Seniors will sta
y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it.
Many employees able to do 
so have retired early over the past decade, and
many still expect to do so. 
'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy
and Japan are already plannin
g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and
other countries will follow 
suit, experts say.
'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne
ss,' said Coleman.
'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th
at a person is old
and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.'
The idea of 
older people giving up their places in the workforce to
youngsters gathered 
favour during the recession, though without any
significant effect in reduci
ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend,
rejuvenating their workforc
es in the belief that younger people adapted
better to new technologies.
But
 Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities:
'Empl
oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who
have
 specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult,
and fl
exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees
could be
 part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe
people wil
l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.'
Employers cas
ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make
better use of 
women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent
of the labour 
force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female
participation, at 46
.6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2)
and the UK(43.2). Ir
eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All
projections for modest gro
wth in the labour force at the turn of the century
come from increased level
s of female participation,' says Coleman.
Formosa thinks employers will come
 round to offering women with caring
responsibilities for children or older 
people more flexible working
arrangements, as they realise the value of doin
g so. 'I believe employers
will make more of an effort to keep women, as the
re is more difficulty in
finding replacements.'
Coleman estimates that, if a
ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female
participation in the labour
 force, the recruits would more than make up for
any shortfall. 'There is a 
hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will
be mobilised as married wome
n increasingly take up work or return to work.'
Europe's ageing workforce ca
n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher
retirement ages as the ratio 
of taxpayers to recipients descends from the
current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc
entives to retire early will go, and the
prospect of lower incomes will obli
ge seniors to work on.
Employers are likely to become involved in improving 
pension provisions,
partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s
chemes to which they
are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo
r later retirement.
Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w
hich pensions
systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir
ement will cut
the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments.
So
me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the
imbalance
 in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is
no quick
 fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal
migrants,
 other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he
says: 'It se
ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour,
especially since 
future demand emphasises high skills.'
Importing cheap young labour would ex
acerbate one of Europe's biggest
problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg
ues that western Europe must deal
with the impending crisis through making t
he best use of its own resources.
It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem
ployment and invest in more
capital-intensive processes to improve productiv
ity. And it should mobilise
more of its potential working population by maki
ng it easier for women to
work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren
t retirement age. Canny
employers can start planning now.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Count
ries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Admini
stration of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT 
 Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 162 ==============================================
Transaction #:    162       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-4802</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIGDVADJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio
n, not ideology, is key to population control </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDW
ARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
While doing voluntary service as a teenager in
 French-speaking Africa, I
shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea
cher, by urging on him the
virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les 
gosses de naitre, wai],' he
expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. 
(Wai], an all-purpose
vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen
t.)
A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly

given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then,

and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has

a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to
al
low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate
de
struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the
Ch
urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At
th
at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad
potent
ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor
is it
 obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church
recommends
 are any more 'natural' than those it condemns.
At the Cairo conference on p
opulation and development, Vatican delegates are
struggling to remove 'pregn
ancy termination' from the list of things covered
by 'reproductive healthcar
e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a
phrase about 'taking appropriat
e steps to help women avoid abortion, which
in no case should be presented a
s a method of family planning'. Vatican
delegates have wisely avoided taking
 a stand on the contraception issue.
They are not helped by TV footage from 
the Philippines, where last month
Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo
nstrated against the conference
and their government's family planning polic
y, with banners proclaiming:
'Contraception = abortion = murder.'
Similarly 
the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with
newspaper 
headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the
Norwegian
 prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to
be legali
sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not
the confe
rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda
had been m
isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare'
could not 
'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family
planning'. But 
she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her
statements: that 'm
orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering
or dying in connecti
on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and
unwanted children'; a
nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of
controlling sexuality and pro
tecting unborn life'.
It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua
rrel, because each
side is attacking the other for a position which, in this
 conference at
least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca
use the current
prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th
an the headlines
suggest.
In an essay just published in the New York Review 
of Books, Prof Amartya
Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem
inds us that the rate
of world population growth has fallen in the last two 
decades from 2.2 to
1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until
 the size of the
world's population becomes nearly stationary'.
The number a
t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds
alarmingly h
igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those
people will be
 hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is
getting cheaper 
in those parts of the world where most of them are being
born. The danger is
 the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able
to afford western l
ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an
unsustainable strain on the w
orld environment.
That problem will not be solved by population control alon
e, but anything we
can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he
lp to make it more
manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv
e or 'override'
methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar
e overridden by
some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap
s ineffective,
as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin
ce 1979 may, he
suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy 
than to 'more
collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ
ation and jobs
outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian 
state of
Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates 
below
those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi
an
states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes

argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education,

healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates,

male and female, than any Chinese province.
China and Kerala have the advant
age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic.
But the birth rate is also falling
 rapidly in Iran (where there is good
basic healthcare, and the authorities 
came round to family planning in 1988)
and in most of South America. The Tab
let, the British Catholic magazine,
even claimed last month, with a certain 
chutzpah, that because it favours
women's education 'the Catholic Church sho
uld be regarded as one of the most
effective organisations in the world for 
reducing the rate of population
growth'. In other words, the Pope should be 
congratulated for educating his
female followers to the point where they can
 ignore his advice.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
 
   XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Pub
lic Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.

</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 163 ==============================================
Transaction #:    163       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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Selec. Rec. #:     26

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-808</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI0DNAGMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>94092
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe 
(3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im
plications of an ageing population </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EVA KALUZYNSKA
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati
on is already aged
65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the
 rest of the world.
'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the
 century,' said Dr
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia
lising in trends
affecting Europe.
There are relatively minor variations in 
birth and death rates among the 17
countries in the European Economic Area (
EEA), but the picture is very
clear. Any company considering relocation will
 obviously factor in current
levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre
ece, Spain and the UK;
highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer
s must tune into
demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l
ong-term
personnel policy off the ground.
'Companies may be thinking of movi
ng now to a country where costs are low,
but they must plan now to keep them
 low,' said employee-benefits specialist
David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo
wndes.
The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro
stat,
in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na
tural
population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra
te
remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from

11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand.

Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU)
,
are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only 
in
Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor
e
children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the

EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demographers are ringing alarm 
bells about the need to adjust policies now,
both at company and government 
level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said
Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro
stat's project on demography. 'In the
next five to 10 years it is going to h
ave the most acute problems in
adjusting to an ageing workforce.'
Italy and 
Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious
in France
, which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be
mothers. The U
K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what
Cruijsen calls an abn
ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen
elsewhere in Europe.
The o
verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent,
rather t
han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the
existing pool 
of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts
agree on the need
 for two significant shifts in policy and attitude:
postponing the age of re
tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour
force. 'Seniors will sta
y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it.
Many employees able to do 
so have retired early over the past decade, and
many still expect to do so. 
'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy
and Japan are already plannin
g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and
other countries will follow 
suit, experts say.
'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne
ss,' said Coleman.
'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th
at a person is old
and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.'
The idea of 
older people giving up their places in the workforce to
youngsters gathered 
favour during the recession, though without any
significant effect in reduci
ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend,
rejuvenating their workforc
es in the belief that younger people adapted
better to new technologies.
But
 Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities:
'Empl
oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who
have
 specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult,
and fl
exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees
could be
 part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe
people wil
l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.'
Employers cas
ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make
better use of 
women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent
of the labour 
force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female
participation, at 46
.6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2)
and the UK(43.2). Ir
eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All
projections for modest gro
wth in the labour force at the turn of the century
come from increased level
s of female participation,' says Coleman.
Formosa thinks employers will come
 round to offering women with caring
responsibilities for children or older 
people more flexible working
arrangements, as they realise the value of doin
g so. 'I believe employers
will make more of an effort to keep women, as the
re is more difficulty in
finding replacements.'
Coleman estimates that, if a
ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female
participation in the labour
 force, the recruits would more than make up for
any shortfall. 'There is a 
hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will
be mobilised as married wome
n increasingly take up work or return to work.'
Europe's ageing workforce ca
n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher
retirement ages as the ratio 
of taxpayers to recipients descends from the
current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc
entives to retire early will go, and the
prospect of lower incomes will obli
ge seniors to work on.
Employers are likely to become involved in improving 
pension provisions,
partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s
chemes to which they
are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo
r later retirement.
Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w
hich pensions
systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir
ement will cut
the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments.
So
me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the
imbalance
 in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is
no quick
 fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal
migrants,
 other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he
says: 'It se
ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour,
especially since 
future demand emphasises high skills.'
Importing cheap young labour would ex
acerbate one of Europe's biggest
problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg
ues that western Europe must deal
with the impending crisis through making t
he best use of its own resources.
It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem
ployment and invest in more
capital-intensive processes to improve productiv
ity. And it should mobilise
more of its potential working population by maki
ng it easier for women to
work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren
t retirement age. Canny
employers can start planning now.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Count
ries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Admini
stration of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT 
 Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 164 ==============================================
Transaction #:    164       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:   Long      Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:42
Selec. Rec. #:     26

Boolean Indexes Used:

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-808</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI0DNAGMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>94092
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe 
(3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im
plications of an ageing population </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EVA KALUZYNSKA
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati
on is already aged
65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the
 rest of the world.
'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the
 century,' said Dr
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia
lising in trends
affecting Europe.
There are relatively minor variations in 
birth and death rates among the 17
countries in the European Economic Area (
EEA), but the picture is very
clear. Any company considering relocation will
 obviously factor in current
levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre
ece, Spain and the UK;
highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer
s must tune into
demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l
ong-term
personnel policy off the ground.
'Companies may be thinking of movi
ng now to a country where costs are low,
but they must plan now to keep them
 low,' said employee-benefits specialist
David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo
wndes.
The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro
stat,
in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na
tural
population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra
te
remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from

11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand.

Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU)
,
are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only 
in
Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor
e
children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the

EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demographers are ringing alarm 
bells about the need to adjust policies now,
both at company and government 
level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said
Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro
stat's project on demography. 'In the
next five to 10 years it is going to h
ave the most acute problems in
adjusting to an ageing workforce.'
Italy and 
Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious
in France
, which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be
mothers. The U
K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what
Cruijsen calls an abn
ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen
elsewhere in Europe.
The o
verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent,
rather t
han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the
existing pool 
of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts
agree on the need
 for two significant shifts in policy and attitude:
postponing the age of re
tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour
force. 'Seniors will sta
y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it.
Many employees able to do 
so have retired early over the past decade, and
many still expect to do so. 
'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy
and Japan are already plannin
g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and
other countries will follow 
suit, experts say.
'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne
ss,' said Coleman.
'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th
at a person is old
and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.'
The idea of 
older people giving up their places in the workforce to
youngsters gathered 
favour during the recession, though without any
significant effect in reduci
ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend,
rejuvenating their workforc
es in the belief that younger people adapted
better to new technologies.
But
 Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities:
'Empl
oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who
have
 specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult,
and fl
exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees
could be
 part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe
people wil
l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.'
Employers cas
ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make
better use of 
women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent
of the labour 
force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female
participation, at 46
.6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2)
and the UK(43.2). Ir
eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All
projections for modest gro
wth in the labour force at the turn of the century
come from increased level
s of female participation,' says Coleman.
Formosa thinks employers will come
 round to offering women with caring
responsibilities for children or older 
people more flexible working
arrangements, as they realise the value of doin
g so. 'I believe employers
will make more of an effort to keep women, as the
re is more difficulty in
finding replacements.'
Coleman estimates that, if a
ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female
participation in the labour
 force, the recruits would more than make up for
any shortfall. 'There is a 
hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will
be mobilised as married wome
n increasingly take up work or return to work.'
Europe's ageing workforce ca
n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher
retirement ages as the ratio 
of taxpayers to recipients descends from the
current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc
entives to retire early will go, and the
prospect of lower incomes will obli
ge seniors to work on.
Employers are likely to become involved in improving 
pension provisions,
partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s
chemes to which they
are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo
r later retirement.
Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w
hich pensions
systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir
ement will cut
the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments.
So
me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the
imbalance
 in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is
no quick
 fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal
migrants,
 other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he
says: 'It se
ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour,
especially since 
future demand emphasises high skills.'
Importing cheap young labour would ex
acerbate one of Europe's biggest
problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg
ues that western Europe must deal
with the impending crisis through making t
he best use of its own resources.
It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem
ployment and invest in more
capital-intensive processes to improve productiv
ity. And it should mobilise
more of its potential working population by maki
ng it easier for women to
work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren
t retirement age. Canny
employers can start planning now.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Count
ries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Admini
stration of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT 
 Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 165 ==============================================
Transaction #:    165       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-808</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI0DNAGMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>94092
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe 
(3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im
plications of an ageing population </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EVA KALUZYNSKA
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati
on is already aged
65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the
 rest of the world.
'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the
 century,' said Dr
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia
lising in trends
affecting Europe.
There are relatively minor variations in 
birth and death rates among the 17
countries in the European Economic Area (
EEA), but the picture is very
clear. Any company considering relocation will
 obviously factor in current
levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre
ece, Spain and the UK;
highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer
s must tune into
demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l
ong-term
personnel policy off the ground.
'Companies may be thinking of movi
ng now to a country where costs are low,
but they must plan now to keep them
 low,' said employee-benefits specialist
David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo
wndes.
The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro
stat,
in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na
tural
population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra
te
remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from

11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand.

Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU)
,
are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only 
in
Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor
e
children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the

EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demographers are ringing alarm 
bells about the need to adjust policies now,
both at company and government 
level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said
Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro
stat's project on demography. 'In the
next five to 10 years it is going to h
ave the most acute problems in
adjusting to an ageing workforce.'
Italy and 
Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious
in France
, which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be
mothers. The U
K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what
Cruijsen calls an abn
ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen
elsewhere in Europe.
The o
verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent,
rather t
han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the
existing pool 
of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts
agree on the need
 for two significant shifts in policy and attitude:
postponing the age of re
tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour
force. 'Seniors will sta
y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it.
Many employees able to do 
so have retired early over the past decade, and
many still expect to do so. 
'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy
and Japan are already plannin
g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and
other countries will follow 
suit, experts say.
'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne
ss,' said Coleman.
'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th
at a person is old
and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.'
The idea of 
older people giving up their places in the workforce to
youngsters gathered 
favour during the recession, though without any
significant effect in reduci
ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend,
rejuvenating their workforc
es in the belief that younger people adapted
better to new technologies.
But
 Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities:
'Empl
oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who
have
 specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult,
and fl
exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees
could be
 part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe
people wil
l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.'
Employers cas
ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make
better use of 
women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent
of the labour 
force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female
participation, at 46
.6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2)
and the UK(43.2). Ir
eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All
projections for modest gro
wth in the labour force at the turn of the century
come from increased level
s of female participation,' says Coleman.
Formosa thinks employers will come
 round to offering women with caring
responsibilities for children or older 
people more flexible working
arrangements, as they realise the value of doin
g so. 'I believe employers
will make more of an effort to keep women, as the
re is more difficulty in
finding replacements.'
Coleman estimates that, if a
ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female
participation in the labour
 force, the recruits would more than make up for
any shortfall. 'There is a 
hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will
be mobilised as married wome
n increasingly take up work or return to work.'
Europe's ageing workforce ca
n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher
retirement ages as the ratio 
of taxpayers to recipients descends from the
current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc
entives to retire early will go, and the
prospect of lower incomes will obli
ge seniors to work on.
Employers are likely to become involved in improving 
pension provisions,
partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s
chemes to which they
are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo
r later retirement.
Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w
hich pensions
systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir
ement will cut
the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments.
So
me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the
imbalance
 in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is
no quick
 fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal
migrants,
 other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he
says: 'It se
ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour,
especially since 
future demand emphasises high skills.'
Importing cheap young labour would ex
acerbate one of Europe's biggest
problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg
ues that western Europe must deal
with the impending crisis through making t
he best use of its own resources.
It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem
ployment and invest in more
capital-intensive processes to improve productiv
ity. And it should mobilise
more of its potential working population by maki
ng it easier for women to
work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren
t retirement age. Canny
employers can start planning now.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Count
ries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Admini
stration of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT 
 Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e II </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 166 ==============================================
Transaction #:    166       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-4802</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIGDVADJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio
n, not ideology, is key to population control </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDW
ARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
While doing voluntary service as a teenager in
 French-speaking Africa, I
shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea
cher, by urging on him the
virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les 
gosses de naitre, wai],' he
expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. 
(Wai], an all-purpose
vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen
t.)
A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly

given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then,

and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has

a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to
al
low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate
de
struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the
Ch
urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At
th
at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad
potent
ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor
is it
 obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church
recommends
 are any more 'natural' than those it condemns.
At the Cairo conference on p
opulation and development, Vatican delegates are
struggling to remove 'pregn
ancy termination' from the list of things covered
by 'reproductive healthcar
e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a
phrase about 'taking appropriat
e steps to help women avoid abortion, which
in no case should be presented a
s a method of family planning'. Vatican
delegates have wisely avoided taking
 a stand on the contraception issue.
They are not helped by TV footage from 
the Philippines, where last month
Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo
nstrated against the conference
and their government's family planning polic
y, with banners proclaiming:
'Contraception = abortion = murder.'
Similarly 
the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with
newspaper 
headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the
Norwegian
 prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to
be legali
sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not
the confe
rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda
had been m
isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare'
could not 
'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family
planning'. But 
she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her
statements: that 'm
orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering
or dying in connecti
on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and
unwanted children'; a
nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of
controlling sexuality and pro
tecting unborn life'.
It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua
rrel, because each
side is attacking the other for a position which, in this
 conference at
least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca
use the current
prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th
an the headlines
suggest.
In an essay just published in the New York Review 
of Books, Prof Amartya
Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem
inds us that the rate
of world population growth has fallen in the last two 
decades from 2.2 to
1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until
 the size of the
world's population becomes nearly stationary'.
The number a
t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds
alarmingly h
igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those
people will be
 hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is
getting cheaper 
in those parts of the world where most of them are being
born. The danger is
 the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able
to afford western l
ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an
unsustainable strain on the w
orld environment.
That problem will not be solved by population control alon
e, but anything we
can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he
lp to make it more
manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv
e or 'override'
methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar
e overridden by
some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap
s ineffective,
as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin
ce 1979 may, he
suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy 
than to 'more
collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ
ation and jobs
outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian 
state of
Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates 
below
those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi
an
states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes

argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education,

healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates,

male and female, than any Chinese province.
China and Kerala have the advant
age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic.
But the birth rate is also falling
 rapidly in Iran (where there is good
basic healthcare, and the authorities 
came round to family planning in 1988)
and in most of South America. The Tab
let, the British Catholic magazine,
even claimed last month, with a certain 
chutzpah, that because it favours
women's education 'the Catholic Church sho
uld be regarded as one of the most
effective organisations in the world for 
reducing the rate of population
growth'. In other words, the Pope should be 
congratulated for educating his
female followers to the point where they can
 ignore his advice.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
 
   XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Pub
lic Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.

</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 167 ==============================================
Transaction #:    167       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-4802</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIGDVADJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio
n, not ideology, is key to population control </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDW
ARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
While doing voluntary service as a teenager in
 French-speaking Africa, I
shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea
cher, by urging on him the
virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les 
gosses de naitre, wai],' he
expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. 
(Wai], an all-purpose
vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen
t.)
A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly

given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then,

and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has

a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to
al
low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate
de
struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the
Ch
urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At
th
at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad
potent
ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor
is it
 obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church
recommends
 are any more 'natural' than those it condemns.
At the Cairo conference on p
opulation and development, Vatican delegates are
struggling to remove 'pregn
ancy termination' from the list of things covered
by 'reproductive healthcar
e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a
phrase about 'taking appropriat
e steps to help women avoid abortion, which
in no case should be presented a
s a method of family planning'. Vatican
delegates have wisely avoided taking
 a stand on the contraception issue.
They are not helped by TV footage from 
the Philippines, where last month
Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo
nstrated against the conference
and their government's family planning polic
y, with banners proclaiming:
'Contraception = abortion = murder.'
Similarly 
the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with
newspaper 
headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the
Norwegian
 prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to
be legali
sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not
the confe
rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda
had been m
isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare'
could not 
'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family
planning'. But 
she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her
statements: that 'm
orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering
or dying in connecti
on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and
unwanted children'; a
nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of
controlling sexuality and pro
tecting unborn life'.
It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua
rrel, because each
side is attacking the other for a position which, in this
 conference at
least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca
use the current
prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th
an the headlines
suggest.
In an essay just published in the New York Review 
of Books, Prof Amartya
Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem
inds us that the rate
of world population growth has fallen in the last two 
decades from 2.2 to
1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until
 the size of the
world's population becomes nearly stationary'.
The number a
t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds
alarmingly h
igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those
people will be
 hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is
getting cheaper 
in those parts of the world where most of them are being
born. The danger is
 the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able
to afford western l
ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an
unsustainable strain on the w
orld environment.
That problem will not be solved by population control alon
e, but anything we
can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he
lp to make it more
manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv
e or 'override'
methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar
e overridden by
some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap
s ineffective,
as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin
ce 1979 may, he
suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy 
than to 'more
collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ
ation and jobs
outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian 
state of
Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates 
below
those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi
an
states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes

argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education,

healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates,

male and female, than any Chinese province.
China and Kerala have the advant
age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic.
But the birth rate is also falling
 rapidly in Iran (where there is good
basic healthcare, and the authorities 
came round to family planning in 1988)
and in most of South America. The Tab
let, the British Catholic magazine,
even claimed last month, with a certain 
chutzpah, that because it favours
women's education 'the Catholic Church sho
uld be regarded as one of the most
effective organisations in the world for 
reducing the rate of population
growth'. In other words, the Pope should be 
congratulated for educating his
female followers to the point where they can
 ignore his advice.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
 
   XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Pub
lic Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.

</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 168 ==============================================
Transaction #:    168       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        

Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
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Selec. Rec. #:     27

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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-4802</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIGDVADJFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio
n, not ideology, is key to population control </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDW
ARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
While doing voluntary service as a teenager in
 French-speaking Africa, I
shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea
cher, by urging on him the
virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les 
gosses de naitre, wai],' he
expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. 
(Wai], an all-purpose
vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen
t.)
A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly

given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then,

and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has

a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to
al
low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate
de
struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the
Ch
urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At
th
at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad
potent
ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor
is it
 obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church
recommends
 are any more 'natural' than those it condemns.
At the Cairo conference on p
opulation and development, Vatican delegates are
struggling to remove 'pregn
ancy termination' from the list of things covered
by 'reproductive healthcar
e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a
phrase about 'taking appropriat
e steps to help women avoid abortion, which
in no case should be presented a
s a method of family planning'. Vatican
delegates have wisely avoided taking
 a stand on the contraception issue.
They are not helped by TV footage from 
the Philippines, where last month
Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo
nstrated against the conference
and their government's family planning polic
y, with banners proclaiming:
'Contraception = abortion = murder.'
Similarly 
the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with
newspaper 
headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the
Norwegian
 prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to
be legali
sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not
the confe
rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda
had been m
isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare'
could not 
'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family
planning'. But 
she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her
statements: that 'm
orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering
or dying in connecti
on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and
unwanted children'; a
nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of
controlling sexuality and pro
tecting unborn life'.
It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua
rrel, because each
side is attacking the other for a position which, in this
 conference at
least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca
use the current
prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th
an the headlines
suggest.
In an essay just published in the New York Review 
of Books, Prof Amartya
Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem
inds us that the rate
of world population growth has fallen in the last two 
decades from 2.2 to
1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until
 the size of the
world's population becomes nearly stationary'.
The number a
t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds
alarmingly h
igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those
people will be
 hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is
getting cheaper 
in those parts of the world where most of them are being
born. The danger is
 the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able
to afford western l
ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an
unsustainable strain on the w
orld environment.
That problem will not be solved by population control alon
e, but anything we
can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he
lp to make it more
manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv
e or 'override'
methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar
e overridden by
some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap
s ineffective,
as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin
ce 1979 may, he
suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy 
than to 'more
collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ
ation and jobs
outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian 
state of
Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates 
below
those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi
an
states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes

argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education,

healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates,

male and female, than any Chinese province.
China and Kerala have the advant
age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic.
But the birth rate is also falling
 rapidly in Iran (where there is good
basic healthcare, and the authorities 
came round to family planning in 1988)
and in most of South America. The Tab
let, the British Catholic magazine,
even claimed last month, with a certain 
chutzpah, that because it favours
women's education 'the Catholic Church sho
uld be regarded as one of the most
effective organisations in the world for 
reducing the rate of population
growth'. In other words, the Pope should be 
congratulated for educating his
female followers to the point where they can
 ignore his advice.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
 
   XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Pub
lic Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.

</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 169 ==============================================
Transaction #:    169       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9688</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or

lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years

below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people

were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former

Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have 
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely 
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of 
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 170 ==============================================
Transaction #:    170       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9688</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or

lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years

below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people

were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former

Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have 
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely 
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of 
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 171 ==============================================
Transaction #:    171       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9688</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or

lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years

below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people

were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former

Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have 
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely 
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of 
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 172 ==============================================
Transaction #:    172       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-2679</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DIQB4ADLFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9309
17
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  17 SEP 93 / Letters to the Editor: Total cost of c
aesarean births in UK is unnecessarily high </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    From Mis
s BARBARA HEWSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Sir, Three cheers for Joe Rogaly ('Birth r
ights and wrongs', September 14).
The costs to the taxpayer of unnecessary c
aesareans is huge. In 1989, a
caesarean cost Pounds 1,123, compared with Pou
nds 363 for a normal delivery
(House of Commons Health Committee, Maternity 
Services, vol 3). Leading
research shows little improvement in outcome with 
a caesarean rate over 7
per cent (Enkin Keirse & Chambers, A Guide to Effect
ive Care in Pregnancy
and Childbirth).
As some 650,000 women give birth in t
he UK each year, my guess is that a
national caesarean rate of 13 per cent i
n 1992 may have increased public
expenditure by some Pounds 30m.
Judging by 
the evidence heard by the health committee, the medical
profession engages i
n serious anti-competitive practices, in obstructing
women's access to midwi
ves. GPs rarely inform women of their right to a home
birth with a midwife, 
referring them straight to hospital and an
obstetrician. Some obstetricians 
threatened women wanting home births with
detention under the Mental Health 
Act unless they agreed to a hospital
birth. Others told women that they 'nee
ded' caesareans and had to go into
hospital. There, the need for surgery van
ished: they delivered normally.
The Royal College of Obstetricians gave evid
ence that its practice was to
withhold information on risks of hospital birt
hs (though not of home
births]) from women.
Miss Barbara Hewson,
barrister,

4 Raymond Buildings,
Gray's Inn,
London WC1R 5BP
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</
XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P8099 Hea
lth and Allied Services, NEC.
    P9431 Administration of Public Health Prog
rams.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financ
ial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 16 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 173 ==============================================
Transaction #:    173       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-9350</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CKFB8AG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9211
06
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r
ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By TIM 
COONE </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc
cess and a failure </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
depending on your viewpoint. Low infla
tion, sustained growth and a healthy
trade surplus add up to a classic textb
ook case of good economic management.
The appendix would have to point out, 
though, that almost a quarter of the
3.5m population is marginalised from th
e mainstream economy, and a
substantial proportion more has little to show f
or that good economic
management.
In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of
 the middle- and upper-class
neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th
e river Liffey, which bisects
the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity.
 The only hint of anxiety is
the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on
 almost any house with a
reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a
longside the personal
computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of-
living.) City centre
restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem
 invariably to be
full, and doing a thriving business.
On the other side of 
the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class
and working class nei
ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and
fast-food shops continue
 to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly
being financed by trans
fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and
unemployment benefits.
De
spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing
ec
onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum
ove
r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown
longer
 by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992
unemployment is 
projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour
force; easily the 
highest in the EC.
This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha
t Ireland has 'one
of the most successful unemployed economies in the world.
' Two things
explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m
embership of
the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the
 EC.
Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu
m,
from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the
n
umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade.
Emig
ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in
Irelan
d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to
only 1,
000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US.
Meanwhile the gov
ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM
has severely restr
icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had
a deflationary eff
ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a
stable macro-econom
ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward
investment. It is tha
t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in
recent years.
Merchandi
se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while
manufacturi
ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive
performance is
 now under threat.
In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw
ards. Some 32 per
cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe
rcent of imports
are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme
d sterling,
turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo
rced into a
devaluation.
The government, however, has held firm. Using its r
emnant exchange controls
(which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of 
the year), raising
interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro
ad to rebuild
reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r
ush in
September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the
 punt.
Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur
ed.
Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the
'inne
r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans
for mon
etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually
emerges out o
f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across
Irish political
 party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade
unions, that to
 link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and
the UK's ailing 
economy would be a fatal error.
The question is whether the very high real i
nterest rates now being suffered
by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p
er cent, will prove more damaging
than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe
rn, the Irish finance minister
says: 'The real level of interest rate is far
 too high, and for the
performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . .
if the Germans move (to
lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u
s to do so as well, but
we will have to live with high interest rates certai
nly for this quarter.
(Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 
per cent increase.'
Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part
y, accuses the
government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec
onomic policy'.
He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy
 - a sweeping
reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit
al-intensive
investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na
tional
insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene
d to
encourage investment and job creation, he says.
Mr Ahern has a worried 
eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an
exchequer borrowing re
quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks
likely to be met. Next yea
r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill
is already locked in thro
ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This
leaves stark choices: eithe
r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC
monetary union, or implement si
gnificant spending cuts in public services.
With a general election looming,
 neither one of these is a politically soft
option.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 34 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 174 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-9350</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CKFB8AG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9211
06
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r
ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By TIM 
COONE </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc
cess and a failure </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
depending on your viewpoint. Low infla
tion, sustained growth and a healthy
trade surplus add up to a classic textb
ook case of good economic management.
The appendix would have to point out, 
though, that almost a quarter of the
3.5m population is marginalised from th
e mainstream economy, and a
substantial proportion more has little to show f
or that good economic
management.
In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of
 the middle- and upper-class
neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th
e river Liffey, which bisects
the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity.
 The only hint of anxiety is
the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on
 almost any house with a
reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a
longside the personal
computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of-
living.) City centre
restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem
 invariably to be
full, and doing a thriving business.
On the other side of 
the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class
and working class nei
ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and
fast-food shops continue
 to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly
being financed by trans
fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and
unemployment benefits.
De
spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing
ec
onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum
ove
r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown
longer
 by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992
unemployment is 
projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour
force; easily the 
highest in the EC.
This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha
t Ireland has 'one
of the most successful unemployed economies in the world.
' Two things
explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m
embership of
the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the
 EC.
Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu
m,
from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the
n
umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade.
Emig
ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in
Irelan
d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to
only 1,
000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US.
Meanwhile the gov
ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM
has severely restr
icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had
a deflationary eff
ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a
stable macro-econom
ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward
investment. It is tha
t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in
recent years.
Merchandi
se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while
manufacturi
ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive
performance is
 now under threat.
In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw
ards. Some 32 per
cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe
rcent of imports
are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme
d sterling,
turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo
rced into a
devaluation.
The government, however, has held firm. Using its r
emnant exchange controls
(which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of 
the year), raising
interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro
ad to rebuild
reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r
ush in
September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the
 punt.
Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur
ed.
Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the
'inne
r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans
for mon
etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually
emerges out o
f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across
Irish political
 party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade
unions, that to
 link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and
the UK's ailing 
economy would be a fatal error.
The question is whether the very high real i
nterest rates now being suffered
by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p
er cent, will prove more damaging
than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe
rn, the Irish finance minister
says: 'The real level of interest rate is far
 too high, and for the
performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . .
if the Germans move (to
lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u
s to do so as well, but
we will have to live with high interest rates certai
nly for this quarter.
(Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 
per cent increase.'
Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part
y, accuses the
government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec
onomic policy'.
He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy
 - a sweeping
reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit
al-intensive
investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na
tional
insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene
d to
encourage investment and job creation, he says.
Mr Ahern has a worried 
eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an
exchequer borrowing re
quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks
likely to be met. Next yea
r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill
is already locked in thro
ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This
leaves stark choices: eithe
r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC
monetary union, or implement si
gnificant spending cuts in public services.
With a general election looming,
 neither one of these is a politically soft
option.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 34 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 175 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-9350</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CKFB8AG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9211
06
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r
ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By TIM 
COONE </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc
cess and a failure </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
depending on your viewpoint. Low infla
tion, sustained growth and a healthy
trade surplus add up to a classic textb
ook case of good economic management.
The appendix would have to point out, 
though, that almost a quarter of the
3.5m population is marginalised from th
e mainstream economy, and a
substantial proportion more has little to show f
or that good economic
management.
In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of
 the middle- and upper-class
neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th
e river Liffey, which bisects
the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity.
 The only hint of anxiety is
the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on
 almost any house with a
reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a
longside the personal
computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of-
living.) City centre
restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem
 invariably to be
full, and doing a thriving business.
On the other side of 
the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class
and working class nei
ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and
fast-food shops continue
 to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly
being financed by trans
fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and
unemployment benefits.
De
spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing
ec
onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum
ove
r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown
longer
 by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992
unemployment is 
projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour
force; easily the 
highest in the EC.
This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha
t Ireland has 'one
of the most successful unemployed economies in the world.
' Two things
explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m
embership of
the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the
 EC.
Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu
m,
from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the
n
umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade.
Emig
ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in
Irelan
d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to
only 1,
000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US.
Meanwhile the gov
ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM
has severely restr
icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had
a deflationary eff
ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a
stable macro-econom
ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward
investment. It is tha
t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in
recent years.
Merchandi
se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while
manufacturi
ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive
performance is
 now under threat.
In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw
ards. Some 32 per
cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe
rcent of imports
are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme
d sterling,
turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo
rced into a
devaluation.
The government, however, has held firm. Using its r
emnant exchange controls
(which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of 
the year), raising
interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro
ad to rebuild
reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r
ush in
September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the
 punt.
Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur
ed.
Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the
'inne
r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans
for mon
etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually
emerges out o
f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across
Irish political
 party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade
unions, that to
 link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and
the UK's ailing 
economy would be a fatal error.
The question is whether the very high real i
nterest rates now being suffered
by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p
er cent, will prove more damaging
than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe
rn, the Irish finance minister
says: 'The real level of interest rate is far
 too high, and for the
performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . .
if the Germans move (to
lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u
s to do so as well, but
we will have to live with high interest rates certai
nly for this quarter.
(Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 
per cent increase.'
Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part
y, accuses the
government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec
onomic policy'.
He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy
 - a sweeping
reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit
al-intensive
investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na
tional
insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene
d to
encourage investment and job creation, he says.
Mr Ahern has a worried 
eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an
exchequer borrowing re
quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks
likely to be met. Next yea
r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill
is already locked in thro
ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This
leaves stark choices: eithe
r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC
monetary union, or implement si
gnificant spending cuts in public services.
With a general election looming,
 neither one of these is a politically soft
option.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 34 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 176 ==============================================
Transaction #:    176       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5797</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EICAFABCFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress:
 Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go </HEADLINE>
<BYL
INE>    By MARK NICHOLSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
None of the women attending the C
airo Family Planning Association clinic in
the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y
esterday knew that the world's biggest
population conference was due to open
 up the road on Monday. Few probably
cared; none seemed the least persuaded 
that seeking family planning advice
might be un-Islamic.
'I'm convinced Isla
m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a
30-year-old woman swathed in
 a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety.
'My brother-in-law is a rel
igious man and he ordered his wife not to use
contraception. He tried to det
er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all
my friends to come to the clini
c. Now all of them blossom like fresh
jasmine.'
Hoda has stopped at five chi
ldren, and was having a routine check on her
IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias
tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her
21-year-old sister had come alon
g too. She has two daughters and said that
was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d
on't plan to have any more children. My
husband would like a son, but he doe
sn't pressure me.'
For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo
uelhy, a UK and
US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati
on, determined
usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor
e commonly,
because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho
use more
children.
For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives 
of the population
policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu
lation and
Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p
ut a brake
on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli
cymakers
and aid workers consider little short of remarkable.
The population
 growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per
cent. A fertility 
rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9
births per woman, 2.9
 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among
married couples is almos
t universal, while 47 per cent of women use
contraception in Egypt (predomin
antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24
per cent in 1980.
Behind such res
ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by
foreign aid, of 
which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning
assistance, a to
tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media
with birth contro
l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics,
enough for 96 per cen
t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family
planning centre.
But ch
eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such
results,
 they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a
populat
ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present
rates, Egyp
t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months.
The constraints on the count
ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all
but 4 per cent of its 1m sq
 km is desert. A recent report by the UN's
Economic and Social Commission fo
r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming
95 per cent of its available wat
er sources and faced a water deficit by the
year 2000.
By most estimates, th
e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year
to mop up new entrants
 to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate
of 5 per cent of GDP, m
ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of
present growth. The World Ba
nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be
created by 2000 even to halve t
he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent.
But population experts tend to 
agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps
1.9 per cent is unlikely to co
me by providing more pills, coils or publicity
campaigns alone.
'There is so
mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of
women in this 
country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family
planning, its ab
out education of women.'
Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the
me of the conference's
draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an
d one which groups such
as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere
nce's hosts will take to
heart. A well established concomitant between raise
d educational standards
among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates 
is seen as the key to
future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups
 argue.
A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by

conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are
illiterat
e.
Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school
s,
of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th
e
rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained
at
titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that
b
efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:
-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Admi
nistration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 
</PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 177 ==============================================
Transaction #:    177       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5797</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EICAFABCFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress:
 Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go </HEADLINE>
<BYL
INE>    By MARK NICHOLSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
None of the women attending the C
airo Family Planning Association clinic in
the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y
esterday knew that the world's biggest
population conference was due to open
 up the road on Monday. Few probably
cared; none seemed the least persuaded 
that seeking family planning advice
might be un-Islamic.
'I'm convinced Isla
m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a
30-year-old woman swathed in
 a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety.
'My brother-in-law is a rel
igious man and he ordered his wife not to use
contraception. He tried to det
er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all
my friends to come to the clini
c. Now all of them blossom like fresh
jasmine.'
Hoda has stopped at five chi
ldren, and was having a routine check on her
IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias
tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her
21-year-old sister had come alon
g too. She has two daughters and said that
was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d
on't plan to have any more children. My
husband would like a son, but he doe
sn't pressure me.'
For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo
uelhy, a UK and
US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati
on, determined
usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor
e commonly,
because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho
use more
children.
For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives 
of the population
policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu
lation and
Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p
ut a brake
on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli
cymakers
and aid workers consider little short of remarkable.
The population
 growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per
cent. A fertility 
rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9
births per woman, 2.9
 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among
married couples is almos
t universal, while 47 per cent of women use
contraception in Egypt (predomin
antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24
per cent in 1980.
Behind such res
ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by
foreign aid, of 
which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning
assistance, a to
tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media
with birth contro
l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics,
enough for 96 per cen
t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family
planning centre.
But ch
eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such
results,
 they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a
populat
ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present
rates, Egyp
t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months.
The constraints on the count
ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all
but 4 per cent of its 1m sq
 km is desert. A recent report by the UN's
Economic and Social Commission fo
r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming
95 per cent of its available wat
er sources and faced a water deficit by the
year 2000.
By most estimates, th
e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year
to mop up new entrants
 to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate
of 5 per cent of GDP, m
ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of
present growth. The World Ba
nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be
created by 2000 even to halve t
he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent.
But population experts tend to 
agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps
1.9 per cent is unlikely to co
me by providing more pills, coils or publicity
campaigns alone.
'There is so
mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of
women in this 
country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family
planning, its ab
out education of women.'
Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the
me of the conference's
draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an
d one which groups such
as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere
nce's hosts will take to
heart. A well established concomitant between raise
d educational standards
among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates 
is seen as the key to
future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups
 argue.
A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by

conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are
illiterat
e.
Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school
s,
of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th
e
rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained
at
titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that
b
efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:
-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Admi
nistration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 
</PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 178 ==============================================
Transaction #:    178       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5797</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EICAFABCFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress:
 Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go </HEADLINE>
<BYL
INE>    By MARK NICHOLSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
None of the women attending the C
airo Family Planning Association clinic in
the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y
esterday knew that the world's biggest
population conference was due to open
 up the road on Monday. Few probably
cared; none seemed the least persuaded 
that seeking family planning advice
might be un-Islamic.
'I'm convinced Isla
m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a
30-year-old woman swathed in
 a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety.
'My brother-in-law is a rel
igious man and he ordered his wife not to use
contraception. He tried to det
er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all
my friends to come to the clini
c. Now all of them blossom like fresh
jasmine.'
Hoda has stopped at five chi
ldren, and was having a routine check on her
IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias
tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her
21-year-old sister had come alon
g too. She has two daughters and said that
was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d
on't plan to have any more children. My
husband would like a son, but he doe
sn't pressure me.'
For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo
uelhy, a UK and
US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati
on, determined
usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor
e commonly,
because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho
use more
children.
For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives 
of the population
policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu
lation and
Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p
ut a brake
on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli
cymakers
and aid workers consider little short of remarkable.
The population
 growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per
cent. A fertility 
rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9
births per woman, 2.9
 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among
married couples is almos
t universal, while 47 per cent of women use
contraception in Egypt (predomin
antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24
per cent in 1980.
Behind such res
ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by
foreign aid, of 
which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning
assistance, a to
tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media
with birth contro
l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics,
enough for 96 per cen
t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family
planning centre.
But ch
eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such
results,
 they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a
populat
ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present
rates, Egyp
t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months.
The constraints on the count
ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all
but 4 per cent of its 1m sq
 km is desert. A recent report by the UN's
Economic and Social Commission fo
r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming
95 per cent of its available wat
er sources and faced a water deficit by the
year 2000.
By most estimates, th
e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year
to mop up new entrants
 to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate
of 5 per cent of GDP, m
ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of
present growth. The World Ba
nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be
created by 2000 even to halve t
he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent.
But population experts tend to 
agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps
1.9 per cent is unlikely to co
me by providing more pills, coils or publicity
campaigns alone.
'There is so
mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of
women in this 
country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family
planning, its ab
out education of women.'
Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the
me of the conference's
draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an
d one which groups such
as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere
nce's hosts will take to
heart. A well established concomitant between raise
d educational standards
among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates 
is seen as the key to
future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups
 argue.
A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by

conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are
illiterat
e.
Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school
s,
of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th
e
rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained
at
titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that
b
efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:
-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Admi
nistration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 
</PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 179 ==============================================
Transaction #:    179       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-6050</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIAD1AAVFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
01
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s
tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population 
hits 60m </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population

conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in
boyc
otting it.
Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final
 document
to incorporate religious ethics'.
Criticism of the Cairo conferenc
e centres on the pragmatic approach taken
towards issues such as extramarita
l and adolescent sex.
Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl
ier this week, that
the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig
ious views of the
Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu
al liberty'.
Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio
n control in
1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr
y's high
population growth rate.
The average population growth rate of 3.9 p
er cent a year in the early 1980s
was among the highest in the world. The Is
lamic government, which took over
after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em
phasis than before on early
marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother
 and saw no reason to
encourage birth control.
It welcomed the growth in pop
ulation, seeing it in terms of increased
resources to build the country into
 an Islamic model. By the mid-80s,
however, concerns about the economy led t
o fears that the high population
growth was a threat rather than an aid to e
conomic development.
Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn
ing of the revolution
in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the 
lack of a family
planning programme combined with improved health care since
 the 1960s.
Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m.

Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop
i
n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent

last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government

figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been
success
ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these
figures. Th
ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in
such a short
 period of time and cite the need for strengthened data
collection and stati
stical analysis.
The most reliable figures are those of the country's census
, taken every
five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p
er cent in
1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin
g
countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples.
Mr
 Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund
(UN
FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning
pr
ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of
th
e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive
meth
ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.'
In June, t
he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for
Iran and par
t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic
data collection
.
The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been

based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural
midwiv
es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of
Health, wh
ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to
implement the prog
ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4
children per woman in 1
988 to 4.25 in 1993.
Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled 
by the lack of family
planning services for almost a decade. An active famil
y planning programme
was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa
tion of the current
programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex
isting awareness.
Another reason for the success of the family planning prog
ramme has been a
relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U
NFPA reaches 60
per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent 
of the majority
urban population.
Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ
k is very good especially in rural
areas and the infrastructure is much bett
er than for many Asian countries.'
A women's health volunteer programme in t
he poor suburbs of southern Tehran
has so far produced good results and is t
o be extended. Under the programme,
women volunteers act as family planning 
counsellors in areas which are not
served by the primary healthcare network.

Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen
t
in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati
on
and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families.
Desp
ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead
are
 still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the
baby
-boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so
fertil
ity rates will increase.
Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag
e of 25, there is a need
for even more emphasis to be placed on education.
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
POPUL
ATION IN IRAN
 -------------------------------------------------------------
---------
Population:                           1994                     63.
2m
                                      2025                    144.6m
Aver
age growth 1990-95                                          2.7%
Urban popul
ation 1992                                            58%
Fertility rate/wom
an   1990-95                                   6.0
Adult literacy 1990:     
             male                       65%
                                
      female                     43%
Family planning users   1975-93        
                          65%
GNP per capita 1991                           
         Dollars 2,170
Share of central govt spending 1991 on:
         educ
ation                                             20.9%
            health  
                                            7.9%
 --------------------------
--------------------------------------------
Source: UNFPA
 ----------------
------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countrie
s:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
    IRZ  Iran, Middle East.
</CN>
<XX>
Ind
ustries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<X
X>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 180 ==============================================
Transaction #:    180       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)        
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-6050</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIAD1AAVFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
01
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s
tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population 
hits 60m </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population

conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in
boyc
otting it.
Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final
 document
to incorporate religious ethics'.
Criticism of the Cairo conferenc
e centres on the pragmatic approach taken
towards issues such as extramarita
l and adolescent sex.
Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl
ier this week, that
the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig
ious views of the
Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu
al liberty'.
Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio
n control in
1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr
y's high
population growth rate.
The average population growth rate of 3.9 p
er cent a year in the early 1980s
was among the highest in the world. The Is
lamic government, which took over
after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em
phasis than before on early
marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother
 and saw no reason to
encourage birth control.
It welcomed the growth in pop
ulation, seeing it in terms of increased
resources to build the country into
 an Islamic model. By the mid-80s,
however, concerns about the economy led t
o fears that the high population
growth was a threat rather than an aid to e
conomic development.
Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn
ing of the revolution
in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the 
lack of a family
planning programme combined with improved health care since
 the 1960s.
Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m.

Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop
i
n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent

last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government

figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been
success
ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these
figures. Th
ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in
such a short
 period of time and cite the need for strengthened data
collection and stati
stical analysis.
The most reliable figures are those of the country's census
, taken every
five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p
er cent in
1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin
g
countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples.
Mr
 Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund
(UN
FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning
pr
ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of
th
e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive
meth
ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.'
In June, t
he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for
Iran and par
t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic
data collection
.
The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been

based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural
midwiv
es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of
Health, wh
ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to
implement the prog
ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4
children per woman in 1
988 to 4.25 in 1993.
Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled 
by the lack of family
planning services for almost a decade. An active famil
y planning programme
was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa
tion of the current
programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex
isting awareness.
Another reason for the success of the family planning prog
ramme has been a
relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U
NFPA reaches 60
per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent 
of the majority
urban population.
Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ
k is very good especially in rural
areas and the infrastructure is much bett
er than for many Asian countries.'
A women's health volunteer programme in t
he poor suburbs of southern Tehran
has so far produced good results and is t
o be extended. Under the programme,
women volunteers act as family planning 
counsellors in areas which are not
served by the primary healthcare network.

Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen
t
in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati
on
and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families.
Desp
ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead
are
 still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the
baby
-boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so
fertil
ity rates will increase.
Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag
e of 25, there is a need
for even more emphasis to be placed on education.
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
POPUL
ATION IN IRAN
 -------------------------------------------------------------
---------
Population:                           1994                     63.
2m
                                      2025                    144.6m
Aver
age growth 1990-95                                          2.7%
Urban popul
ation 1992                                            58%
Fertility rate/wom
an   1990-95                                   6.0
Adult literacy 1990:     
             male                       65%
                                
      female                     43%
Family planning users   1975-93        
                          65%
GNP per capita 1991                           
         Dollars 2,170
Share of central govt spending 1991 on:
         educ
ation                                             20.9%
            health  
                                            7.9%
 --------------------------
--------------------------------------------
Source: UNFPA
 ----------------
------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countrie
s:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
    IRZ  Iran, Middle East.
</CN>
<XX>
Ind
ustries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<X
X>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 181 ==============================================
Transaction #:    181       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)                   
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Associated Variable Length Text:

<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-6050</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIAD1AAVFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
01
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s
tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population 
hits 60m </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU </BYLINE>
<TEXT>

The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population

conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in
boyc
otting it.
Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final
 document
to incorporate religious ethics'.
Criticism of the Cairo conferenc
e centres on the pragmatic approach taken
towards issues such as extramarita
l and adolescent sex.
Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl
ier this week, that
the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig
ious views of the
Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu
al liberty'.
Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio
n control in
1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr
y's high
population growth rate.
The average population growth rate of 3.9 p
er cent a year in the early 1980s
was among the highest in the world. The Is
lamic government, which took over
after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em
phasis than before on early
marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother
 and saw no reason to
encourage birth control.
It welcomed the growth in pop
ulation, seeing it in terms of increased
resources to build the country into
 an Islamic model. By the mid-80s,
however, concerns about the economy led t
o fears that the high population
growth was a threat rather than an aid to e
conomic development.
Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn
ing of the revolution
in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the 
lack of a family
planning programme combined with improved health care since
 the 1960s.
Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m.

Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop
i
n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent

last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government

figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been
success
ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these
figures. Th
ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in
such a short
 period of time and cite the need for strengthened data
collection and stati
stical analysis.
The most reliable figures are those of the country's census
, taken every
five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p
er cent in
1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin
g
countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples.
Mr
 Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund
(UN
FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning
pr
ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of
th
e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive
meth
ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.'
In June, t
he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for
Iran and par
t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic
data collection
.
The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been

based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural
midwiv
es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of
Health, wh
ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to
implement the prog
ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4
children per woman in 1
988 to 4.25 in 1993.
Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled 
by the lack of family
planning services for almost a decade. An active famil
y planning programme
was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa
tion of the current
programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex
isting awareness.
Another reason for the success of the family planning prog
ramme has been a
relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U
NFPA reaches 60
per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent 
of the majority
urban population.
Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ
k is very good especially in rural
areas and the infrastructure is much bett
er than for many Asian countries.'
A women's health volunteer programme in t
he poor suburbs of southern Tehran
has so far produced good results and is t
o be extended. Under the programme,
women volunteers act as family planning 
counsellors in areas which are not
served by the primary healthcare network.

Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen
t
in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati
on
and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families.
Desp
ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead
are
 still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the
baby
-boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so
fertil
ity rates will increase.
Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag
e of 25, there is a need
for even more emphasis to be placed on education.
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
POPUL
ATION IN IRAN
 -------------------------------------------------------------
---------
Population:                           1994                     63.
2m
                                      2025                    144.6m
Aver
age growth 1990-95                                          2.7%
Urban popul
ation 1992                                            58%
Fertility rate/wom
an   1990-95                                   6.0
Adult literacy 1990:     
             male                       65%
                                
      female                     43%
Family planning users   1975-93        
                          65%
GNP per capita 1991                           
         Dollars 2,170
Share of central govt spending 1991 on:
         educ
ation                                             20.9%
            health  
                                            7.9%
 --------------------------
--------------------------------------------
Source: UNFPA
 ----------------
------------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countrie
s:-
</XX>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
    IRZ  Iran, Middle East.
</CN>
<XX>
Ind
ustries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<X
X>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 182 ==============================================
Transaction #:    182       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-5296</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DFDB5AC8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9306
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 JUN 93 / Hounded out by fiction and foes: Histo
ry will be kinder to Norman Lamont than the tabloid press has been </HEADLIN
E>
<BYLINE>    By BILL ROBINSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Norman Lamont must go down 
as one of the unluckiest chancellors. I hope that
history will also see him 
as a brave man who took unpopular decisions in the
best interests of the cou
ntry. It is no credit to our governance that he was
ultimately brought down 
by the mob, led on by the popular press.
When he took office in November 199
0 the chancellor inherited a double-digit
rate of inflation, which he hated,
 and an economy moving rapidly into
recession. He decided to make the elimin
ation of inflation his main policy
aim and in this he was outstandingly succ
essful. The headline inflation rate
fell from nearly 11 per cent to just ove
r 1 per cent during his stewardship.
But the price was high. The recession p
roved much longer and deeper than
mainstream forecasters had expected. A rec
overy, originally expected well
ahead of the April 1992 election, was still 
not in the bag by last
Christmas. In the meantime an alarming deterioration 
in the public finances
had become all too visible. A chancellor committed to
 cutting taxes had to
introduce a tax-raising budget.
It was, of course, non
e of these problems that brought him down. Everybody
will remember Norman La
mont as the man who had publicly defended an exchange
rate policy for which,
 as the cabinet's leading Euro-sceptic, he had little
affection, and then cl
ung to office when the policy collapsed. He was filmed
on the Treasury steps
 in late August saying there was no scintilla of doubt
that the pound would 
stay in the ERM. Three weeks later, from a nearby spot,
he announced the sus
pension of ERM membership.
If he had gone then, the reasons for his departur
e would have been clear.
But his senior colleagues agreed that the ERM debac
le was not his fault. He
stayed, and on balance I believe he was right to do
 so. Those who cite the
precedent of Jim Callaghan's resignation over the st
erling devaluation of
1967 are drawing a distant and misleading parallel. Th
ey should look at what
other countries have done following the many realignm
ent crises that have
dogged the ERM at roughly two-year intervals since its 
birth in 1979. They
have not found it necessary to change their finance mini
sters along with
their ERM parity.
Should Mr Lamont have ducked the fight to
 stay in? That would have been a
breach of faith with all in Britain who sup
ported ERM entry and with
Britain's partners in the EC. Should he have deval
ued rather than float? The
countries which chose that option have had an unc
omfortable time, with
interest rates still high and the risk of another real
ignment crisis never
far away.
By fighting to stay in until he was forced ou
t, the chancellor sent a very
clear signal of his determination to defeat in
flation with a strong pound
and high interest rates. He also underlined the 
government's commitment to
the ERM, keeping open the option of rejoining the
 system. That option seemed
more important then than now. But when re-entry 
comes back on the agenda, Mr
Lamont's dogged defence of sterling's ERM parit
y will stand us in good
stead.
Once out of the ERM Mr Lamont swiftly cut sho
rt-term interest rates,
bringing them decisively below German rates, as they
 needed to be. His
Autumn Statement contained further measures to bolster co
nfidence, notably
the abolition of the car tax. The UK is now enjoying a rec
overy while the
rest of the Community is in deepening recession.
Mr Lamont a
lso put in place a new framework for the conduct of policy. He
set, for the 
first time, an explicit inflation target, buttressed by
indicative ranges fo
r broad and narrow money. He announced that progress on
inflation would be m
onitored in regular monthly meetings with the governor
of the Bank of Englan
d, on a pre-announced timetable. He ordered the
publication of the internal 
documents on which that assessment was based. He
also gave the Bank of Engla
nd a new quasi-independent role in monitoring the
inflation performance and 
publishing a quarterly report on the subject.
The new policies were outlined
, in a speech to the International Monetary
Fund, the weekend immediately af
ter exit from the ERM. Over the next few
weeks further details were announce
d in a letter to the Treasury committee,
in the Mansion House speech and in 
the Autumn Statement. This measured pace
was considered too slow by some. Bu
t policies made on the hoof are followed
all too often by U-turns.
The verdi
ct of the financial markets on all this is clear. The long bond
rate, the ac
id test of inflationary expectations, is more than 1 percentage
point lower 
than in September. The exchange rate has held steady.
So why did we keep on 
reading that the City had lost all confidence in the
chancellor? Perhaps it 
was because the tabloids turned on him. Having
hounded David Mellor out of o
ffice for some over-enthusiastic socialising in
a Chelsea strip, they attemp
ted to bring down Mr Lamont by character
assassination. They produced a misc
hievous story about his party conference
hotel bill. They dug up another abo
ut his Access bill (lost when building
works drove him temporarily out of Nu
mber 11). They kept digging and found
that some of the costs of evicting an 
unsuitable tenant 18 months earlier
had been met out of public funds. Worst 
of all, when Lamont stopped at the
Marble Arch Threshers (on the way home fr
om Dorney Wood) to pick up some
wine for dinner the incident was turned, by 
false witness, into a fictitious
purchase of champagne and cheap cigarettes 
in Paddington.
He survived it all and went on to present his third Budget - 
a delicate
balancing act. Public borrowing needed to be reduced but the reco
very was
still very fragile. The chancellor solved the problem by announcing
 a
programme of delayed tax increases. The innovation received good reviews 
(as
had both of his previous Budgets) and the economic data published since 
then
suggest the economy is still on the path to recovery.
So during the Eas
ter recess it looked as though, for once, all was set fair.
Growth had resum
ed; inflation, both prices and wages, was hitting record
lows; the problem o
f the public finances had been addressed. It was a fair
bet that Mr Lamont w
ould present the first unified Budget, his fourth, and
bow out with honour s
hortly after.
Then came the Newbury by-election. The government suffered a h
uge defeat,
and suddenly the papers were again full of calls for the chancel
lor's
resignation. This time he lost the support of his closest colleagues a
nd was
obliged to depart, to a gleeful tabloid chorus of 'Lamont humiliated'

headlines.
The departure of a cabinet minister is an important political ev
ent. It is
usually the result either of a scandal or a big disagreement with
in the
government over policy. Mr Lamont's departure does not fit that patte
rn. The
change of policy occurred nine months ago and has proved rather succ
essful.
The scandals dominated the headlines six months ago, and were either

fictitious or not very scandalous.
The chancellor nevertheless had to go be
cause word came back from Newbury to
the party managers that he was unpopula
r. The voters mentioned the hotel
bill, the Access bill, the lawyers' bill, 
the Threshers bill. Nobody
mentioned the Finance Bill. That reflects the cov
erage accorded to Mr Lamont
by the tabloids.
Politicians are judged by the q
uality of their decisions. Mr Lamont took
some good ones and leaves the econ
omy in much better shape than he found it.
The history books will be kinder 
to him than his contemporaries have been.
The author was special adviser to 
the chancellor and former director of the
Institute for Fiscal Studies
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries
:-
</XX>
<IN>P9199 General Government, NEC.
    P9311 Finance, Taxation, and
 Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>PEOP  People.
</TP>
<PUB>The 
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 183 ==============================================
Transaction #:    183       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-12366</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DA3AKAAYFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
129
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  29 JAN 93 / No mass yet to the market: Despite ne
w services, UK mobile 'phone charges remain a deterrent </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>
    By HUGO DIXON </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
On the surface, the UK's mobile communica
tions industry has just entered an
intensely competitive phase. In the past 
few months, consumers have been
bombarded with advertising campaigns for thr
ee new services claiming to be
much cheaper than the standard cellular servi
ces, and at least four more are
to be launched later this year. Vodafone and
 Cellnet, the two established
cellular companies, spent about Pounds 20m on 
advertising in the last
quarter of 1992 and, despite the recession, their cu
stomers grew by 163,000
last year, more than double the 1991 growth.
The cur
rent marketing ferment gives the impression of a price war. Although
there a
re 1.4m cellular 'phone users in the UK - about twice as many as
Germany, Fr
ance and Italy respectively - almost all are business users.
Observers belie
ve the market could reach 10m by 2000, if the price is right.
Could the late
st marketing be just what is needed to bring about a mass
market?
The answer
 is probably no, because prices have not fallen. For instance,
Vodafone's ne
w Lowcall and Cellnet's new Lifetime services - jointly
nicknamed 'Lowlife' 
- have cheaper subscription charges than the companies'
standard cellular se
rvices, but higher call rates. The result is that
customers calling more tha
n once a day actually pay more with the new
pricing packages.
The only large
 price discounting has come from Rabbit, a 'telepoint' service
run by Hutchi
son Telecom. But this is not a direct competitor to cellular,
since customer
s cannot receive incoming calls and can only make outgoing
calls in public p
laces where they see the Rabbit sign. These limitations
explain why only 8,0
00 have signed up.
The mix of vigorous marketing and an absence of price cut
s continues a
pattern which has been a feature of the cellular industry sinc
e its birth in
1985. The reason is that neither Vodafone nor Cellnet, owned 
jointly by BT
and Securicor, has an incentive to jeopardise substantial prof
its by
launching a price war. And there is no outside pressure to do so, sin
ce they
were established as a protected duopoly, not subject to price regula
tion.
Vodafone made operating profits of Pounds 152m from sales of Pounds 32
0m in
the six months to the end of last September - a margin of nearly 50 pe
r
cent. Cellnet, which started losing market share in the late 1980s, made
o
perating profits of Pounds 75m from sales of Pounds 184m - still a margin
of
 over 40 per cent.
Could the entrance of competitors undermine this duopoly?
 That was certainly
the idea behind the government's decision in the late 19
80s to license three
personal communications networks, a variation on cellul
ar communications, as
Cellnet and Vodafone rivals.
But things have not worke
d out exactly as planned. Microtel, one of the new
networks, was sold when i
ts backers got cold feet over raising the required
Pounds 1bn investment. Th
ere are still doubts over whether the new owners,
Hong Kong's Hutchison Wham
poa and British Aerospace, are willing to put up
the cash.
This leaves Mercu
ry Personal Communications, a merger of the two remaining
personal communica
tion networks. A joint venture between the UK's Cable and
Wireless and US We
st, MPC plans to launch its service in the middle of the
year.
The new 'trip
oly' will almost certainly be more competitive than the old
duopoly. But it 
remains to be seen how a market with two established players
and one entrant
 will work. The signs are that all parties wish to avoid a
price war. Mercur
y, in particular, has made clear that it does not want to
compete head-on fo
r Vodafone's and Cellnet's existing customers.
This might seem odd. But MPC 
knows that a head-on attack would provoke a
price war, which it would not be
 well placed to win. This is because
initially its service will only be avai
lable in the south-east, while it
will need to subsidise handset prices by a
bout Pounds 200 a customer because
they will be more expensive to make than 
standard cellular ones. Moreover,
its network design is such that it will on
ly be profitable if it eventually
attracts more than 1m customers. 'I don't 
want to fight over 1.4m customers
because that is not enough,' explains Mr R
ichard Goswell, MPC's managing
director.
Instead, the company plans to devel
op a new segment of the market consisting
of small businesses and affluent c
onsumers. Mr Goswell promises
'significantly' cheaper prices - rivals expect
 cuts of about 30 per cent -
to achieve this.
Its biggest discounts will be 
on the cost of making incoming calls, which
will be less than half current r
ates. MPC believes this will be an important
selling point. But its rivals c
annot understand why MPC would give up a
large slice of easy revenue, when c
utting incoming charges will not lower
customers' bills at all. Cellnet goes
 so far as to describe the move as
'mad'.
Nevertheless, MPC's segmentation a
pproach suits Vodafone and Cellnet. It
seems to offer them a way of cutting 
prices for new customers, while keeping
margins high on existing business. T
heir strategy is to devise pricing
packages which appeal to new segments of 
the market but are not so generous
that the existing market is 'cannibalised
'.
Vodafone has two initiatives planned. The first, called GSM and aimed at 
the
international executive, will allow customers to use their 'phones in ma
ny
other parts of Europe. It will cost 20 per cent more than the standard
se
rvice.
The second, MCN, will be in direct competition with MPC. Customers wi
ll
receive large discounts if they make local calls from their local areas, 
but
charges will rise if they make national calls or move outside their loca
l
areas. Somebody driving along the motorway or in open countryside will pay

twice the current rate, which should deter many customers from switching.
A
 similar pricing package, LSM, is planned by Cellnet. It admits candidly:
'W
e'll get the impression of price wars but not the reality.'
All this means t
hat 1993 will not witness the birth of a mass market. To
achieve that, price
s would have to drop sharply. The average running costs
of Pounds 700-Pounds
 800 are the main obstacle. Industry executives
acknowledge charges will hav
e to fall by half to appeal.
But Vodafone's and Cellnet's fat profit margins
 give them both scope to make
discounts of that order and Mercury's network 
design means it will
eventually be driven to expand the market. So, although
 1993 will see only
the appearance of a price war, the reality may not be th
at far off.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
-------
MOBILE SERVICES: COMPARING THE COST
 -------------------------------
---------------------------------------
                     Vodafone   Voda
fone  Vodafone       Vodafone
                     Standard    Lowcall      
 GSM            MCN
 -------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Monthly
subscription
(Pounds)                   29          
18       35              23
 -----------------------------------------------
-----------------------
Outgoing calls
Peak rate/minute
(p)                 
    29-39       54-63    35-41           12-76
 ----------------------------
------------------------------------------
Incoming calls
Peak rate/minute
(
p)                        39          39       39              39
 ---------
-------------------------------------------------------------
Customers
(tho
usands)               749          46        -               -
 ------------
----------------------------------------------------------
Investment
so far

(Pounds m)                550         N/A       80              30
 -------
---------------------------------------------------------------
Launch date 
             1985        1992     Spring         Autumn
                    
                           1993           1993
 ----------------------------
------------------------------------------
Coverage                         
             90 per-
(now or at             Nation-      Nation-   cent of  
      Fairly
launch)                wide          wide    population    nati
onwide
 --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
                     Cellnet    Cellnet    Cellnet
                     S
tandard   Lifetime       LSM     MPC     Rabbit
 ---------------------------
-------------------------------------------
Monthly                         
           Cheaper   Cheaper
subscription                                  t
han      than
(Pounds)                29       15-18    standard  standard  
    7
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
-
Outgoing calls                             Cheaper   Cheaper
Peak rate/min
ute                              than      than
(p)                  29-39  
        59    standard  standard     23
 -----------------------------------
-----------------------------------
Incoming calls
Peak rate/minute
(p)     
                39          39         39       39     N/A
 ----------------
------------------------------------------------------
Customers
(thousands)
            558          44          -        -       8
 -------------------
---------------------------------------------------
Investment
so far
(Pound
s m)             600         N/A        100+     300      80
 --------------
--------------------------------------------------------
Launch date        
   1985        1992       1993     mid      1992
                           
                           1993
 -------------------------------------------
---------------------------
Coverage                                     Lon
don   London  Urban
(now or at           Nation-     Nation-   Manchester So
uth-  centres &
launch)               wide        wide     Birmingham east  
  main roads
 --------------------------------------------------------------
--------
Source: FT research and Mobile Communications
 --------------------
--------------------------------------------------
Subscription and call rat
es include VAT
 ------------------------------------------------------------
----------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>

<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P481  Telephone Communications.
</IN>
<XX>
Type
s:-
</XX>
<TP>IND  Industry profile.
    CMMT  Comment and Analysis.
</TP>
<
PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 184 ==============================================
Transaction #:    184       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT934-16374</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DJFC5AGIFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>931
006
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  06 OCT 93 / Survey of Cable TV and Satellite Broa
dcasting (3): The film that can erase itself </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By RAYM
OND SNODDY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
For years Mr William Graven has been working awa
y at his concept of an
electronic video store through his company EMC3 - Ent
ertainment Made
Convenient 3. The idea is that the viewer orders a feature f
ilm from a
library by using a free telephone number and the film is squirted
 down to
the consumer in a five-minute digitally compressed burst to a speci
ally
adapted video recorder. The recording can be watched twice but erases i
tself
on its second play.
Mr Graven says he already has reached agreement wi
th a number of Japanese
consumer electronics companies to manufacture the ne
w video recorder and
believes his dream of creating an international electro
nic video store which
never runs out of even the most popular films is now n
ot far off.
New video recorders with the EMC function are expected to become
 available
by November 1994 and would cost around Dollars 500 although the c
ost could
drop to Dollars 350 in mass production. Research carried out in Ja
pan showed
that consumers understood the concept of video-on-demand and said
 they
preferred it to the existing subscription channels.
While video-on-dem
and is likely to be one of the big themes of the next few
years, and a possi
ble financial driving force for the introduction of
digital compression tech
nology into the home, another will be the way US
media companies are determi
ned to drive their films and programmes around
the world using all available
 and emerging technologies. Soon hardly
anywhere on earth will be entirely s
afe from at least the potential of
tuning in to cheerful American voices rev
ealing the latest news or
introducing the oldest films.
Mr Ted Turner's Cabl
e News Network and CNN Inter- national proudly boasts
that it is already on 
12 satellites around the world, soon to be 13, and
that only some parts of G
reenland and Antarctica are still deprived of
24-hours-a-day television news
.
Mr Turner may have been the first to take his channel international,
follo
wed by Viacom's MTV, but more US channels are now trying to break out
of the
 large but increasingly saturated American market and a number of
significan
t US media companies are buying into regional satellite channels
or investin
g in the setting up of new channels.
There are also growing moves to create 
integrated media businesses that
create film and television programmes in Ho
llywood and distribute them
through everything from video to satellite and c
able around the world.
Increasingly, the name of the game is the creation an
d exploitation of
intellectual property rights, and the more universal the a
ppeal the better.
One of the most recent examples of the drive towards integ
ration was Mr
Turner's purchase in August of two independent Hollywood produ
ction
companies, New Line and Castle Rock, in a deal worth Dollars 672m.
'I 
had to (buy into Hollywood). No question. I have more than 3,000 old
movies 
(from the MGM library) and no new movies except television movies. If
you ar
e going to be a big player you have got to have the product,' says Mr
Turner
 who began transmitting two of his channels, TNT, based on old films
and som
e sport and the Cartoon Network to Europe in the form of a single
24-hours a
 day channel. The integrated channel schedules cartoons during the
day and f
ilms at night.
Mr Turner did not quite get the welcome he might have expecte
d in Europe.
Although the UK gave the channel a licence, which ought to have
 given it
clearance throughout Europe under existing conventions and directi
ves, both
the French and Belgian governments blocked its entry to their cabl
e networks
because it did not have enough European content. As Belgium is vi
rtually
completely cabled, it was a serious blow to the channel.
According t
o the EC Television Without Frontiers directive, which came into
force two y
ears ago, satellite channels should have majority EC content
where practicab
le. And although it is difficult to see how a film channel
could be run with
out a considerable proportion of Hollywood movies, even an
old movie channel
, attitudes on the issue of American 'cultural imperialism'
appear to be har
dening.
The UK, which has traditionally taken a rather laissez-faire approac
h to the
issue of European content, although much less so to issues of eroti
cism or
pornography beamed in by satellite, is starting to take a firmer lin
e on
content.
Mr Peter Brooke, secretary of state for National Heritage, tol
d the Royal
Television Society's Cambridge convention last month that maybe 
it was time
for Sky One, the general entertainment channel that has just rec
ently been
scrambled and included in the Sky Multi-Channel subscription pack
age, to
start thinking about including more UK-made programmes. The channel 
relies
heavily on programmes bought in Los Angeles.
Mr Sumner Redstone, the 
Viacom chairman, has not yet seemed to run into
cultural resistance to his c
hannels. He also plans to take Viacom channels -
Nickelodeon, the children's
 channel and Nick-at-Nite and VH-1 around the
world.
He has a vision of an i
nternational children's channel, created with local
partners that would give
 'a chance of an international lobby for the kind of
world we want to live i
n'.
Nickelodeon has already arrived in the UK, with Nick- at-Nite and VH-1
f
ollowing early next year.
Mr Rupert Murdoch has also recently been spelling 
out his international
ambitions, linked with the Dollars 525m purchase of St
ar TV and with it
potential entrance to the Asian television market. 'It's a
 global dream that
you never quite dared have, and suddenly it's there,' he 
says.
The global dream is not universally shared in the region. The Malaysia
n
government has already expressed reservations about Mr Murdoch's intention
s.
Partly maybe to answer such criticisms, Mr Murdoch is planning to create

separate Star services for India and China, and possibly a third Star at a
l
ater stage for the 200m people of Indonesia to reflect, at least partly,
the
 enormous cultural and linguistic differences that are involved.
The News Co
rporation chairman makes no bones about wanting to take his UK
channels, suc
h as Sky Sport, around the world. 'We will also take Sky News
around the wor
ld. There will be a parallel international service and Sky
News as we know i
t today will be for Britain and Europe,' Mr Murdoch says,
adding that he pla
ns to work with local partners for the international
service in different pa
rts of the world. 'Maybe Kerry Packer in Australia,'
he muses.
An increasing
ly tense battle is now likely between international television
news organisa
tions. The well- entrenched CNN, already facing growing
opposition from BBC 
World Service Television, is likely also to come up
against competition from
 Mr Murdoch's Sky News.
However, Mr Ted Turner of CNN is irritated at all th
e publicity that Mr
Murdoch has had for his international news plans, which 
tend to put in the
shade the fact that CNN is already there and has already 
done what Mr
Murdoch is only hoping to do. Mr Murdoch in turn has long had t
he ambition
to bring to the occupants of hotel rooms around the world news t
hat is less
obviously American than CNN - or at least less American than CNN
 used to be
before CNN International was developed.
Independent Television N
ews of the UK is not yet a contender in the
international television news ba
ttle but would like to become a player.
Reuters, the international news and 
financial information group, now an ITN
shareholder alongside Mr Michael Gre
en's Carlton Communications, is making
no secret of its television ambitions
. Given Reuters' expertise in business
and financial reporting some sort of 
television business channel might make
sense.
The latest American arrival on
 the European media scene is NBC, the US
network which runs cable channels i
n the US including a business news
channel, and which has been looking at th
e pan-European market for some
time.
NBC has bought a 75 per cent stake in S
uperChannel the general entertainment
satellite channel which has access to 
around 60m cable television homes in
western and eastern Europe. The deal is
 believed to be worth around Pounds
40m. Set up originally by a consortium o
f ITV companies, apart from Thames
Television which declined to take part, t
he channel made significant losses
until it was sold to the Marcucci family 
of Italy with Mr Richard Branson's
Virgin group retaining a minority stake f
or only Pounds 9 and the assumption
of around Pounds 2.5m in debt. So far ne
arly Pounds 25m has been invested in
the channel which has specialised in ni
che programming because it could not
afford the big new movies or top exclus
ive sports events.
As the Marcucci family move on to specialise in inter- na
tional television
production, the resources of NBC, both in programming and 
finance, could
make all the difference to the outlook for SuperChannel.
Time
 Warner has also been trying to maximise revenues from its programme
library
 by taking its Home Box Office around the world. There have been
pay-televis
ion joint ventures in Venezuela, Hungary, New Zealand and
Scandinavia and th
rough HBO Ole, the first Spanish-speaking movie and
entertainment service av
ailable to all of Spanish-speaking Latin America and
the Caribbean.
Other US
 investors in the UK include Cox, the Atlanta-based media company,
which has
 taken stakes in two new sat- ellite channels, UK Gold, based on
the librari
es of the BBC and Thames Television and UK Living, a channel
devoted to wome
n's interests. Inter- national Family Entertain- ment, a
company linked with
 American television evangelist Pat Robertson, has bought
TVS, the ITV compa
ny that lost its south of England franchise and brought
The Family Channel, 
its successful American cable channel, to the UK.
The strongest European opp
osition to growing American dominance of the
international television news a
irwaves is coming from BBC World Service
Television, which was finally launc
hed two years ago after long delays. The
British govern- ment, which funds B
BC World Service Radio, refused to
contribute any money to set up the servic
e and forbade the BBC from using
licence fee money to fund it. In the end, a
 modest sum was found from the
sale of subscriptions in Europe for an existi
ng BBC general entertainment
channel to get World Service Television under w
ay.
Because of shortage of funds, Mr Chris Irwin, its chief executive, has h
ad
to proceed via a series of self-financing joint ventures. The service is 
now
available in Africa and on cable networks in Canada. Next spring it will

launch in Japan in a 10-year deal worth Pounds 150m, and there are hopes of

getting into the US market.
But perhaps the greatest impact that BBC World 
Service Television has had so
far is in Asia, where it is delivered from Lon
don to 38 countries as one of
five channels, including MTV, on the Star sate
llite system. In India alone,
World Service Television has more than 13m reg
ular viewers, according to
independent research earlier this year. Indians a
re able to watch the BBC 6
O'Clock News live in the evening and Newsnight, t
he BBC evening current
affairs programme, is shown the next morning.
The BBC
 has recently signed a deal with Intelsat to use digital compression
to help
 add the US and Latin American to its existing markets.
Mr Tom Johnson, pres
ident of CNN, recognises that BBC World Service
Television is very professio
nal and represents growing compet- ition.
However, he cites its lack of fina
nce as one obvious weakness. In 1992 CNN
in all its forms had total revenues
 of Dollars 535.6m and made operating
profits of Dollars 150m.
The Murdoch p
urchase of control of Star has caused uncertainty over the
future of BBC Wor
ld Service Television in Asia but Mr Murdoch has stated
unambiguously that h
e will honour the BBC's 10-year contract with Star. It
probably makes good b
usiness sense for him to do so because the BBC name is
well regarded, partic
- ularly in India, and the service is believed to bring
in a signif- icant p
roportion of the advert- ising revenues of the Star
system.
In all this brav
e new world, the UK is playing a key role, not because of
the size of the ma
rket but because of the number of things going on there.
To a considerable e
xtent North American media and telephone companies view
the UK as a laborato
ry whose results merit careful study.
It is the only place in the world wher
e telecommun- ications deregulation
has gone so far as to allow cable com- p
anies to offer a full range of
telephone services in compet- ition to the PT
T. As a result, most of the
regional Bell operating companies from the US ha
ve piled into the UK cable
market, partly because they see a good business o
pportunity but also to
learn about cable in the hope that a similar pattern 
of deregulation is not
far off in the US.
At the moment, US telephone compan
ies cannot run cable television franchises
in their own telephone operating 
areas although they can buy systems
elsewhere in the US. The issue is headin
g for the US legal system. Bell
Atlantic recently won a local ruling in Alex
andria, Virginia, allowing it to
start up a cable system there in competitio
n with Jones, a large cable
operator, a decision that is being appealed agai
nst.
The other interesting factor about the UK is the scale of the satellite

subscription business that has been built up by BSkyB. Mr Murdoch, who owns

50 per cent, quite simply describes it as the leading satellite company in

the world and points to an important lesson learned in the UK which is
influ
encing his decision- making in other parts of the world such as Asia.
'There
 is no question we have shown here (in the UK) that first in gets the
market
,' he says. Canal Plus, the French pay television company is probably
still 
bigger, but it enjoys one enormous advantage - control over
conventional tel
evision frequencies so that it can broadcast over normal
land-based transmit
ters.
On the face of it, cable television's performance in the UK would give

snails and tortoises a good reputation. After 10 years of effort, according

to the latest official figures to the beginning of July, only 658,884 homes

were connected to any form of cable and that involves a broad definition
in
cluding blocks of flats connected to an antenna and old-fashioned
television
 relay systems upgraded to carry at least a basic selection of the
new satel
lite channels. The total for the modern broadband or multi-channel
systems w
as 473,415 although the symbolic 500,000 figures was expected to be
passed s
ometime this month.
When it comes to broadband homes offering the full range
 of cable programme
services, the total number takes on an even more pessimi
stic hue compared
with the number of homes in the UK which could subscribe i
f they wanted to.
That total by July 1 stood at 2,327,257, which meant that 
precisely
1,853,842 householders whose homes are passed by a cable network h
ave
decided not to subscribe so far. This gives a disappointing penetration 
rate
 -the ratio of those subscribing to those who could subscribe - of 20.3
 per
cent.
Indeed, the official quarterly bulletin from the Independent Tele
vision
Commission carries the headline: 'Cable Growth Slows In 1993'. The re
port
begins: 'The increase in the number of broadband cable subscribers slow
ed
down in the first half of 1993, apparently as recessionary factors genera
ted
higher rates of disconnection.' This meant that although there was a net

increase in subscribers in the first six months of 1993 of 33,000 because o
f
faster rates of building cable networks, the average take-up rate dropped 
to
levels last seen in early 1992.
And all this has been happening at a time
 when Sky Television has been
dominating the headlines with its 18-channel p
ackage and more on the way. At
Pounds 19.99 a month, including three movie c
hannels and a sports channel,
it appears superficially, at least, to be so m
uch better value than cable.
Quite apart from the aesthetics of having a dis
h on the wall, whether flat,
see-through or not, this illusion is at least p
artly created because
satellite viewers have to buy or rent the receiving eq
uipment. With cable,
it is all included. Although the difference may be more
 apparent than real,
it does not make cable's marketing task any easier.
Aga
inst such a background, why are a growing number of big banks getting
excite
d about backing cable while their lack of interest in earlier years
blocked 
the development of cable? Why does Mr Richard Woollam of the CTA
find his lu
nch diary clogged with engagements to expound on the newly
discovered virtue
s of cable?
The change can partly be explained in two words - cable telephon
y. Cable
television as a business selling just more television channels alwa
ys seemed
like a long haul in the UK, where unlike the early days of the ind
ustry in
the US good quality television signals carrying good quality progra
mmes from
the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are almost universally available. But a
dd
telephone services and the economics are transformed.
'We are not a cable
 TV business. We are an entertainment and information and
communications bus
iness,' says Mr Michael Turner, chairman of the CTA and
chief executive of S
outhwestern Bell International, whose franchises cover a
total of 1.14m home
s in the midlands and north-west of England. The number
of cable telephone s
ubscribers is still small - around 200,000 - but the
rate of increase and th
e effect on the revenues of cable operators are quite
dramatic.
Three years 
ago Mercury Communications supplied 200 telephone lines a month
to the cable
 industry and revenues were in hundreds of thousands of pounds.
The rate is 
now running at more than 20,000 lines a month and between Pounds
60m and Pou
nds 70m is expected to be generated at the retail level this
year.
By the en
d of September just under 250,000 telephone lines had been handed
over to ca
ble franchises, though not all of these are yet in use.
There are now 32 cab
le franchises in the UK offering telephone services,
compared with 17 a year
 ago and many operators are installing their own
switches. In August Mercury
 announced marketing and operations agreements
with the largest cable operat
ors, including Encom, General Cable, Nynex,
CableComms, Southwestern Bell, T
eleWest Communications and Videotron.
Nynex, with franchises in the Brighton
, Poole and Worthing areas, is
providing telephone links for public services
 in the region.
'We have tied together Hampshire police stations and we are 
working on
ambulance stations and other things,' says Mr Peter Lynch, market
ing
director of Nynex, the telephone company for New York and New England.
M
r Alan Bates, managing director of Jones Cable, with interests in more than

1m homes under franchise including Aylesbury and Leeds, is very clear about

the benefits of telephone services. 'We thought this year that 40 per cent
o
f our revenues would come from telephony and 60 per cent from cable. We
have
 just passed through where it's 50-50 and we are fast heading for 60-40
the 
other way around. To double your revenue on a margin additional cost (to
ins
tall telephony) is phenomenal,' he says.
The joint cable television/telephon
y package is much easier to sell than
cable TV alone, Mr Bates emphasises. T
he English middle classes, he
believes, habitually lie about what they watch
 on television and find it
difficult to buy anything so vulgar as cable. But
 discounts of up to 20 per
cent are something they understand, even though t
here is the inconvenience
for domestic subscribers of changing their number.
 'Then they say we'll take
cable for the children,' laughs Mr Bates.
The spr
ead of telephone services on cable network will increasingly pose
competitio
n for BT, which the national operator will find it difficult to
meet.
The ca
ble operators are local and geographically dispersed and each
individual net
work can offer different packages of discounts, including free
local calls i
n some areas.
A BT price cut to tackle small cable discounters in a few hund
red thousand
homes would have to be offered nationally, costing the company 
millions of
pounds.
The emerging importance of telecommunications has led to
 a measure of
consolidation in the industry as the well-funded American phon
e companies,
which like to boast that they understand all about 'burying loa
ds of money
in a hole in the ground', have been buying up franchises that co
me on the
market.
For example, in March Nynex bought three franchises in Gre
ater Manchester,
Bolton and Derby that were previously held by Pacific Teles
is, which decided
to concentrate its investment thrust on mobile communicati
ons and began to
withdraw from the UK cable market. More recently TeleWest, 
the joint venture
between Mr Malone's TCI and Bell West became the largest c
able operator in
the UK when it bought seven Scottish cable franchises owned
 by Post-Newsweek
Cable.
Up and down the country, a rough pattern is beginni
ng to emerge in cable
sales: that of every 100 sales the cable industry make
s, 70 people will take
the combined television and telephone service, 20 peo
ple cable television
only and 10 people telephone only. They are percentages
 that certainly
impressed Mr Bates's bankers recently to enable him to negot
iate what was
seen as a landmark financing deal for cable.
NatWest Markets, 
the corporate finance arm of National Westminster Bank,
arranged a Pounds 15
2.5m financing for the 'construction and operation of a
cable television and
 telecommunications franchise' in Leeds. The money is
made up of Pounds 77.5
m in equity and Pounds 75m in non-recourse finance.
It is the first 'fully-f
unded' cable deal concluded before construction
actually begins, although of
 course performance thresholds are built in.
Five UK investors are involved 
including Cable & Wireless, the parent of
Mercury Communications, although m
ost of the money came from US investors
such as Capital Cities/ABC and Paine
 Webber and the debt was underwritten by
the Bank of Nova Scotia and other b
anks.
Even bigger cable finance deals are in the pipeline. It is believed th
at
Citibank is in the process of raising Pounds 250m for the UK cable
franch
ises of Nynex. If the deal goes through, it could further improve the
invest
ment climate for cable, though the bankers will be watching carefully
to see
 that their positive analysis on the prospects for cable works out in
realit
y.
Mr Michael Turner is not downhearted at the slowdown in cable subscribers
.
'It's been a mixed year for cable, but if you look at the fundamentals of

the business there has been record investment, record build. Yes, the
penetr
ation rate is coming down a bit. We're disappointed but not really
concerned
. We are convinced it will come back, that the market is going to
buy the pr
oduct,' the CTA chairman says.
This year a total of Pounds 750m will be inve
sted in the construction of
cable networks in the UK, more than in any previ
ous three- or four-year
period. But what if the British people simply do not
 want multi-channel
television or at least the programmes now being offered?
 Many of the big
cable operators have carried out their own consumer researc
h just to make
sure that there is not an invisible, insuperable barrier. 'I 
don't think
there is anything in the culture of the British people that says
 that over
time they won't want multi-channel,' says Mr Bates. And even if a
dults, were
to behave in that 'perverse' way, then the children will certain
ly
understand cable and the choice it offers.
Another straw in the wind is t
he fact that not all cable operators are
performing so very modestly. In Bir
mingham, for instance, the penetration
rate is running at 33.5 per cent - an
d anything over 30 per cent, bankers
say, is definitely a business because o
f the cash flows generated. If only
the rest could lift their game to the Bi
rmingham level, cable enthusiasts
say.
To Mr Turner the real challenge does 
not come from BSkyB but from the 75 per
cent of the population who do not ha
ve multi-channel television of any kind.
BSkyB itself has recently taken an 
enormous risk in moving towards a nearly
total subscription package. The onl
y BSkyB exception is the loss-making Sky
News.
On the day Sky Television was
 launched in February 1989, Mr Murdoch made it
clear that other services apa
rt from movies could be encrypted, or scrambled
and charged for on a monthly
 basis.
There is a large risk in charging for a service that has previously 
been
'free'. Last year Sky started to charge for its sports channel and this

autumn Sky One disappeared from the gaze of those not prepared to pay. Mr
M
urdoch himself feared there could have been uproar at the decision to
charge
 but, against all the odds, if anything the opposite has happened.
Satellite
 dish sales started to rise after a period of slower growth. Partly
this was
 the result of massive publicity and partly it was a response to
carefully s
tructured special deals and discounts.
Perhaps above all else, the pill of h
aving to pay was sugared by the arrival
of new non-Murdoch channels in the p
ackage so that, at least by the
beginning of next year, there will be a tota
l of 18 channels under the Sky
marketing banner at a total monthly cost to t
he consumer of Pounds 19.99.
Twelve scrambled channels ranging from Discover
y and The Family Channel to
UK Gold, which draws on the programme libraries 
of the BBC and Thames
Television and Country Music Television, are available
 in the Multi-Channel
package for Pounds 6.99 a month - the equivalent of th
e basic tier of
channels in the cable television package.
Paradoxically, the
 simple subscription package may be easier to sell than
the previous mixture
, where some channels were only on subscription and
others were free.
'Peopl
e understand the subscription package. It's easier to sell,' says Mr
Paul Mc
Mullan, of East Antrim Electricals, who has sold satellite equipment
since t
he early days of Sky Television. The logic of the move to
subscription is un
assailable in financial terms, as long as Sky can retain
most of its existin
g viewers and start to build again.
As each new satellite channel becomes av
ailable the audience for the new
media, as opposed to the traditional broadc
asters, is further fragmented.
The smaller the audience, however good the ta
rgeting or the demographics,
the less significant that audience is for adver
tisers. Although there will
inevitably will be elements of cross-over, the m
ost obvious way to maximise
the choice available to the public is for it to 
be funded by three separate
streams of revenue - a licence fee, advertising 
and subscription.
The new subscription revenues could transfer BSkyB's balan
ce sheet, although
the company will have to be sure that the subscribers are
 being given value
for money and not progressively milked once they are 'hoo
ked' on the extra
choice.
Viewers have been persuaded to pay a monthly subsc
ription for a sports
channel that used to be free, largely as a result of th
e exclusive Pounds
305m deal to show live premier league games. But if Sky w
ere to take some of
the best games out of the existing package and charge an
 additional
pay-per-view fee, that might turn out to be a step too far for m
any of their
customers.
Sky has said it will launch a pay-per-view service n
ext year, possibly at
the same time as a second sports channel begins broadc
asting although little
has been said about what sort of events will be offer
ed on the pay-per-view
menu.
BSkyB has made considerable financial progress 
in the past two years, and at
least at the operational level, is now making 
more than Pounds 2m a week
although there is still a pre-tax loss of about P
ounds 70m a year when
notional interest payments on the Pounds 1.7bn investe
d in the project are
included.
Next year, the money will start to flow back 
to the owners of the consortium
who have so far not actually paid each other
 the interest on their loans to
the venture. Apart from News Corporation and
 Pearson, the main investors are
the Granada Group and Chargeurs of France.

Compared with the enormous losses of the past, the figures that Mr Richard
B
rooke, BSkyB chief financial officer, announced for the year to June 1993
we
re remarkable.
The operating profit of Pounds 61.5m represented a Pounds 108
m turnaround on
the previous year and turnover was up by 63 per cent to Poun
ds 380m - 80 per
cent of it coming from subscription revenue. In addition, t
he satellite
consortium had needed no new funding from shareholders since Ma
y 1992 and
Pounds 34m of available funding had not had to be drawn down. It 
seemed like
a turning point of some significance and, executives promised, t
he improving
trends were continuing into the current financial year.
Mr Gary
 Davey, the BSkyB deputy managing director, pointed out last month
that 100,
000 new movie channel subscriptions had been signed up in August
alone, taki
ng the total of movie subscriptions past 2m for the first time.
BSkyB is fac
ing a growing problem of pirate subscription cards. News
Corporation's Video
Crypt system, based on a microchip embedded in a cards
rather like a telepho
ne card which 'unlocks' the scrambled pictures, was
claimed to be pirate-pro
of. In fact, pirate cards are being openly
advertised and sold in Scandinavi
a and Germany, and the trend is starting to
spread to the UK.
One company in
 England is already offering pirate cards for sale at Pounds
200 in what amo
unts to an unofficial subscription service of its own. If
BSkyB changes the 
codes in the chip, the company offers to provide a
replacement for an additi
onal fee of Pounds 30. Like many transactions
involving intellectual propert
y, it is apparently not illegal to offer such
cards for sale although it is 
illegal for consumers to use them.
If the number of pirate cards in circulat
ion were ever to become
substantial, it would damage BSkyB in two signif- ic
ant ways. In the UK
piracy would simply mean the loss of revenue or potentia
l revenue but in
continental Europe the problem could be even more significa
nt. The satellite
company buys only the UK subscription rights to Holly- woo
d films which are
sold by the studios on a country-by- country basis. The ag
reements with
BSkyB are conditional on the films not being available all ove
r Europe.
Widespread piracy, unless tackled, could call vital film contracts
 into
question.
Overall, BSkyB was in more than 3.5m homes by the begin- nin
g of September
including 2.57m homes with satellite dishes, according to BAR
B.
Yet although the new channels are available in more than 15 per cent of U
K
homes, it has to be emphasised that their performance in terms of audience
s
and ratings has been modest. It is a rare satellite programme that has bee
n
able to assemble an audience of 1m and few apart from The Simpsons have
ac
hieved it.
Despite the rapid growth in the number of channels avail- able, t
he new
media still account for less than a third of total viewing in homes w
hich
can receive satellite channels. This ratio looks like staying fairly
co
nstant, or only increasing slightly, as more channels are added. This
sugges
ts that satellite channels, at least at their present stage of
development, 
will have to content them- selves with sharing a finite amount
of viewing ti
me and rely instead for growth in getting their services into
an increasing 
number of homes.
For instance, in March, before the latest burst of new chan
nels on the Astra
satellite such as Bravo, Discovery, Nickelodeon, the Famil
y Channel,
TNT/Cartoon Network and UK Living, the official BARB figures show
 that the
non-terrestrial channels took 29.4 per cent of viewing in cable an
d
satellite homes. For the week ending September 19 with the new channels on

stream, the total satellite share from more than 15 channels had risen only

to 31 per cent - virtually the same as that achieved by the BBC with its tw
o
channels in new media homes.
It is, of course, early days for the new chan
nels in the BSkyB package but
according to BARB the average weekly viewing t
o Bravo in cable and satellite
homes was 10 min- utes, one minute ahead of N
ickelodeon, although the
Children's Channel was more successful at 13 minute
s. The Family Channel was
watched for an average seven minutes and UK Living
 for five minutes. This
compared with an average 7 hours 23 minutes for ITV 
and even 1 hour 38
minutes for Channel 4 in cable and satellite homes.
Zenit
h Media, Saatchi & Saatchi's media buying arm, believes that by the
year 200
3 satellite's share of viewing in satellite homes will, at 32.3 per
cent, ha
ve hardly moved at all. Increased penetration for cable and
satellite will e
nable the new media channels to account for 17 per cent of
total television 
in all homes by 2003 compared with their 1993 figure of 5.2
per cent.
More c
ompetition could yet be on the way in the UK television market. All
hopes of
 establishing a national Channel 5 have not yet been abandoned.
Following th
e decision last December by the Independent Television
Commission to reject 
the only bid from a consortium led by Thames
Television, mainly on the groun
ds of inadequate shareholder commitment, the
whole issue is being reviewed t
his autumn.
The ITC has called for expressions of interest by October 15 in 
three
options:
A national channel capable of reaching 74 per cent of the pop
ulation, very
similar to the one originally advertised.
A much more local ci
ty-based television service, a concept that would need
legislation to implem
ent.
Use of the Channel 5 frequencies as part of an overall plan to introduc
e
digital television.
The ITC has made it clear that the UK could have as ma
ny as 100 television
services if the existing four national channels were al
so to move to
digital.
In practice, the ITC concedes, at least 10 years' not
ice would have to be
given before ending existing broadcasts in PAL and ther
e would have to be
'simulcasting' - broadcasting the existing main channels 
in both PAL and
digital. In most parts of the country this would still allow
 the
introduction of new digital channels. There could be as many as 20 new

channels in some areas although the number would be much fewer in the south

and south-east, where the spectrum is relatively crowded.
The ITV companies,
 still coming to terms with the effects of competitive
tenders for their new
 franchises, are now debating what extra services could
be offered to persua
de consumers to buy the necessary decoders. There are
also suggestions that 
the new digital television services could effectively
be funded by giving ov
er part of the spectrum to the running of a digital
communication system for
 industry and finance.
Despite the technological attractions of the endless 
choice being offered by
digital, a number of serious players are still inter
ested in running Channel
5 as a conventional television channel.
The big adv
antage is that unlike most of the ITV companies, the channel
would not have 
to pay a percentage of its advertising revenue to the
government and a small
 bid - Thames offered the minimum Pounds 1,000 a year
 -would be enough to w
in the franchise.
The main disadvantage is that any successful applicant wil
l have to pay for
the retuning of millions of video recorders at present tun
ed in to the
frequencies Channel 5 would use.
Across Europe the new media, p
articularly cable, have been making
considerable progress.
According to the 
11th annual study of the European cable industry by CIT
Research, the market
 research group specialising in communications, at the
beginning of this yea
r 68m out of western Europe's 152m television
households had either cable te
levision or a communal system fed by a
satellite dish. A total of 30m homes 
were connected to cable networks, up
from 26m the previous year.
About 40 pe
r of Europe's cable homes are in Germany, where the Bundespost's
Telekom div
ision has been pursuing a vigorous building policy, with 30 per
cent in the 
Low Countries and the rest elsewhere.
CIT believes that western European vie
wers spent nearly Ecu4bn on cable
television in 1992 including pay TV revenu
es - up 24 per cent on 1991.
'Given that Europe is still in the teeth of rec
ession, the industry can
congratulate itself,' CIT concludes.
By June this y
ear, 12.8m German households were connected to cable networks,
most of them 
in the western Lander. There are also plans to spend DM55bn on
improving tel
ecommunications in the east, DM3.5bn of which will be devoted
to cable.
In F
rance cable is at last beginning to grow steadily, although cable
subscriber
s still account only for 5.5 per cent of the country's 20.6m
television hous
eholds, according to CIT.
The sixth Pan-European Television Audience Researc
h survey, published
earlier this year, was based on viewing figures from cab
le homes in Flanders
and five European countries: Denmark, Germany, Netherla
nds, Norway and
Sweden. It showed that the viewing of commercial channels tr
ansmitted by
cable or satellite continued to expand at the expense of the st
ate-owned and
public service sector.
The audience shares of channels funded 
wholly or in part by licence fee now
ranges from 32.1 per cent in Flanders t
o 56.3 per cent in Denmark.
In Germany, Europe's largest cable and satellite
 dish market, the public
broadcasters achieved a 32.6 per cent share in new 
media homes, although
this dropped to 25.5 per cent among the 16-34 age grou
p.
The choice available somewhere in Europe continues to grow with more than

100 services available over both cable and satellite, not all subscription

based.
Eurospsort continues to provide Europe-wide competition for the UK-ba
sed Sky
Sports and Euronews, the multilingual news and information service b
acked by
more than a dozen public service broadcasters, is increasing its re
ach after
a difficult birth at the beginning of this year.
By the end of Aug
ust the channel was reaching 11m cable and communal dish
homes and, with the
 help of rebroadcasting on conventional transmitters, was
available in a tot
al of 43m homes.
One of the most interesting uses of satellite television is
 to provide
special services for ethnic minorities all over Europe. There ar
e
programming segments for Japanese and Chinese minorities, while TV Asia, t
he
Asian channel on the Astra satellite, has expanded to 18 hours a day with

programmes ranging from Indian and Pakistani films to daily news coverage i
n
five Asian languages.
MBC, the Arabic language television station based in
 London, recently
reached an agreement to co-operate with the Arab Network o
f America, the
main Arabic language network of the US. There will be program
me exchanges
and joint productions.
MBC - the Middle East Broadcasting Centr
e - was launched more than two years
ago and broadcasts its service all over
 Europe, North Africa and the Arabian
Gulf.
Back at the former studios of TV
-am Mr Bill Roedy, chief executive of MTV
Europe, insists: 'We don't take ou
rselves too seriously. It's only
entertainment after all.'
He is right, of c
ourse, about the ultimate significance of the new media and
the technologica
l driving force behind it - except that the new
international channels will 
have growing cultural influence and new media
empires will be created as pub
lic service monopolies give way, at least in
part, to an era of greater choi
ce and intensified competition.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  Unit
ed States of America.
    GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX
>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P7841 Video Tape Rental.
    P7812 Motion Picture a
nd Video Production.
    P4841 Cable and Other Pay Television Services.
</IN
>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Market shares.
    TECH  Services & Services 
use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page IV </PAGE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 185 ==============================================
Transaction #:    185       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-10968</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBDCGAAXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
204
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r
ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year -
 after low-birth Year of Sheep </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By YVONNE PRESTON </B
YLINE>
<TEXT>
AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar 
Year of the
Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch
ina's family
planners trying to hold the birth rate down.
Babies born in the
 Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been
considered ill-fa
ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of
bitterness and tr
agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it
contributed to an increased
 incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate
last year.
Forty per cent of t
he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in
1990 - the more fav
ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992,
the Legal Daily news
paper reported.
Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij
ing
gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China

Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice.

A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl
e
were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'.
If the figures reflect delay
ed births on the part of deeply superstitious
peasants and even urban parent
s seeking to maximise the life chances of the
one child they are permitted, 
the number of births could soar in this
auspicious Year of the Monkey.
The C
hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a
12-ye
ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially
favourable b
ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also
years of the roo
ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake.
Monkeys are blessed; they ha
ve a great ability to make money, are wise,
sociable and witty; it would be 
hard to find a bigger success story than a
monkey in a monkey's year . . . o
r so the legend goes.
Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe
cially when couples
can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve
ning News published
a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep
 calling the
superstition a lot of feudal nonsense.
It said many successful 
and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the
Sheep, and quoted mortal
ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949
revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1
979 - to show there had been no increase in
the number of deaths during thos
e years.
Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse
lves
pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to 
have
babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s
ee
their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti
ng
a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family.
Prof Yan,
 former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born
this year
 will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and
create pro
blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools,
and later i
n finding jobs.
It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C
hinese that the
old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the
m out, though
not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli
eve nine out
of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy.
In the
 often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer
than 5
0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the
capital, nev
er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed
on from one 
generation to another.
China's worried family planners remain fearful of the
 consequences of being
unable to convince the population that all babies bor
n under the same symbol
are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put 
your faith in science,
Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey:
 Think of the problems
it will create for the next generation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>
The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 186 ==============================================
Transaction #:    186       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-10968</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBDCGAAXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
204
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r
ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year -
 after low-birth Year of Sheep </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By YVONNE PRESTON </B
YLINE>
<TEXT>
AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar 
Year of the
Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch
ina's family
planners trying to hold the birth rate down.
Babies born in the
 Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been
considered ill-fa
ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of
bitterness and tr
agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it
contributed to an increased
 incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate
last year.
Forty per cent of t
he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in
1990 - the more fav
ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992,
the Legal Daily news
paper reported.
Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij
ing
gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China

Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice.

A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl
e
were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'.
If the figures reflect delay
ed births on the part of deeply superstitious
peasants and even urban parent
s seeking to maximise the life chances of the
one child they are permitted, 
the number of births could soar in this
auspicious Year of the Monkey.
The C
hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a
12-ye
ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially
favourable b
ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also
years of the roo
ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake.
Monkeys are blessed; they ha
ve a great ability to make money, are wise,
sociable and witty; it would be 
hard to find a bigger success story than a
monkey in a monkey's year . . . o
r so the legend goes.
Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe
cially when couples
can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve
ning News published
a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep
 calling the
superstition a lot of feudal nonsense.
It said many successful 
and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the
Sheep, and quoted mortal
ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949
revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1
979 - to show there had been no increase in
the number of deaths during thos
e years.
Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse
lves
pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to 
have
babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s
ee
their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti
ng
a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family.
Prof Yan,
 former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born
this year
 will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and
create pro
blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools,
and later i
n finding jobs.
It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C
hinese that the
old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the
m out, though
not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli
eve nine out
of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy.
In the
 often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer
than 5
0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the
capital, nev
er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed
on from one 
generation to another.
China's worried family planners remain fearful of the
 consequences of being
unable to convince the population that all babies bor
n under the same symbol
are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put 
your faith in science,
Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey:
 Think of the problems
it will create for the next generation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>
The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 187 ==============================================
Transaction #:    187       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)        

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-10968</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBDCGAAXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
204
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r
ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year -
 after low-birth Year of Sheep </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By YVONNE PRESTON </B
YLINE>
<TEXT>
AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar 
Year of the
Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch
ina's family
planners trying to hold the birth rate down.
Babies born in the
 Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been
considered ill-fa
ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of
bitterness and tr
agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it
contributed to an increased
 incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate
last year.
Forty per cent of t
he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in
1990 - the more fav
ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992,
the Legal Daily news
paper reported.
Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij
ing
gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China

Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice.

A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl
e
were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'.
If the figures reflect delay
ed births on the part of deeply superstitious
peasants and even urban parent
s seeking to maximise the life chances of the
one child they are permitted, 
the number of births could soar in this
auspicious Year of the Monkey.
The C
hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a
12-ye
ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially
favourable b
ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also
years of the roo
ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake.
Monkeys are blessed; they ha
ve a great ability to make money, are wise,
sociable and witty; it would be 
hard to find a bigger success story than a
monkey in a monkey's year . . . o
r so the legend goes.
Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe
cially when couples
can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve
ning News published
a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep
 calling the
superstition a lot of feudal nonsense.
It said many successful 
and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the
Sheep, and quoted mortal
ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949
revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1
979 - to show there had been no increase in
the number of deaths during thos
e years.
Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse
lves
pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to 
have
babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s
ee
their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti
ng
a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family.
Prof Yan,
 former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born
this year
 will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and
create pro
blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools,
and later i
n finding jobs.
It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C
hinese that the
old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the
m out, though
not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli
eve nine out
of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy.
In the
 often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer
than 5
0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the
capital, nev
er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed
on from one 
generation to another.
China's worried family planners remain fearful of the
 consequences of being
unable to convince the population that all babies bor
n under the same symbol
are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put 
your faith in science,
Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey:
 Think of the problems
it will create for the next generation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>
The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). </PA
GE>
</DOC>

============= Transaction # 188 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 189 ==============================================
Transaction #:    189       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) 

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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-7393</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DHVALAC7FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9308
21
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  21 AUG 93 / Russia's women face a new reign of fea
r: When communism fell, women looked forward to the benefits of democracy. B
ut, they are now in danger of losing a fundamental right: safe, legal aborti
on </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By LORI CIDYLO </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
STRANGE THINGS ar
e happening in post-communist Europe. When democracy
supplanted communism as
 the dominant political system in eastern Europe, its
oppressed peoples expe
cted to inherit greater rights and freedoms. However,
for women, democracy h
as turned out to be a painful disappointment.
Just four years after democrat
ic revolutions transformed the cartography of
the Soviet bloc, women are in 
danger of losing one of the fundamental rights
they were guaranteed under co
mmunism - the right to a safe, legal abortion.
In Poland, which now ranks al
ongside Ireland in having Europe's most
restrictive abortion laws, abortion 
is allowed only in cases of rape and
incest; when the mother's health is end
angered; or when tests reveal serious
foetal defects.
In Hungary, women must
 go before a committee before they can seek an
abortion, and women in the fo
rmer East Germany must go through official
counselling.
Now the Russian parl
iament is considering a new law which women say is a
first step toward restr
icting, and eventually banning, abortion in Russia.
The controversial bill c
ontains a clause which says that the state
'recognises' a child's 'right to 
life' - the most contentious aspect of the
legislation - and a provision whi
ch calls for granting men and women 'equal
rights in deciding all issues of 
family life, including issues of family
planning.'
While supporters of the b
ill insist that the latter provision is meant to
enhance the rights of fathe
rs in custody suits, which are largely ignored in
Russia, women's rights adv
ocates fear it could mean that a woman would have
to obtain permission from 
her partner before seeking an abortion.
'If this bill is passed, the freedom
 of choice a woman has today will be
destroyed', says Ludmila Zavadskaya, a 
lawyer and MP who is an outspoken
critic of the proposed legislation. 'A sit
uation could arise where a woman
comes in for an abortion and the doctor say
s to her: 'Let me see the
decision of your husband'.
'I was at a conference 
recently and I met a lot of Polish women who are just
horrified. Now it look
s like we may be going in the same direction.
Democracy isn't turning out th
e way it was supposed to at all.'
The Women's Union of Russia, a non-governm
ental organisation with more than
2m members, recently protested to parliame
nt about the bill. 'We consider it
necessary', the women wrote, 'to preserve
 the present norm whereby the final
decision is left to the woman . . . a wo
man cannot be forced into motherhood
against her will.'
'The new catch-phras
e is: 'Let's return women to their natural destiny','
says Marina Baskakova,
 a scholar at the Gender Center in Moscow, which
researches women's issues. 
'But we are not in the 17th century. A woman
should have the right to choose
 how many children she wants to have.' In her
view, the proposed law would r
educe women to 'biological instruments for
continuing the human race.'
Anoth
er provision that has ignited controversy - it also appears in
President Bor
is Yeltsin's version of Russia's new constitution - states that
the governme
nt has the right to carry out a 'progressive demographic
policy', a well-kno
wn euphemism, women say, for reintroducing a ban on
abortion.
Such a law, th
ey maintain, would be a throwback to the pro-natalist policies
of Stalinism 
when motherhood was considered an obligation to the state and
women could be
 jailed for terminating a pregnancy.
In the view of Elena Yershova, a libera
l MP: 'It is terrible that women in
our country have to have so many abortio
ns in conditions that are far from
ideal. But it's better than having to hav
e an illegal abortion. We already
went through that.
'My mother lived her wh
ole life during the time when abortions were illegal.
They were also conduct
ing a 'progressive demographic policy'.'
The consequences of such a policy h
ave been well-documented. In 1966, after
the government of Romania reversed 
its liberal abortion policy in an attempt
to create more workers for the sta
te, the number of live births nearly
doubled. But after just two years the r
ate started to decline and death from
illegal abortions soared.
Opponents of
 the Russian bill say that it is part of a broad post-communist
backlash aga
inst women's rights.
In a telephone interview from Brussels, Anita Pollack, 
a British member of
the Committee on Women's Rights of the European Parliame
nt, which had
appealed to the Polish Parliament not to approve its anti-abor
tion bill,
called the Russian bill 'appalling' and 'an infringement on women
's rights.'
'One tyranny is being replaced by another', she added. 'Here in 
the west, we
are trying to advance a woman's right to do what she wants with
 her body.
This was always something very positive in the east . . . Now, it
's just
going backwards for them.'
Indeed, the proposed Russian legislation 
seems part of a campaign to promote
traditional gender roles. Instead of all
ocating resources to re-train women,
who account for 70 per cent of Russia's
 unemployed, the bill proposes that
unemployed pregnant women would stay at 
home and receive half the monthly
minimum wage of Dollars 7.74. A monthly sa
lary of Dollars 18 is considered
poverty level. Such a development would onl
y create a poor female
underclass, women say.
It seems paradoxical, at first
, that a backlash against women's rights could
occur in newly-democratic nat
ions in the throes of revolutionary political
and economic change. But there
 are various factors at work.
One reason is that a new heterogeneity has per
meated societies that were
formerly one-party states. 'Before, we were a mon
olithic society', says
Elena Yershova. 'Now we have everything - leftist ext
remists, right-wingers,
centrists and even religious fundamentalists who sup
port a ban on abortion.'
Greater religious freedom has played a central role
 in the permutation of
abortion policy in eastern Europe. The church, once c
onsigned to the fusty
antechamber of backroom politics, is using its new-fou
nd moral mandate to
push through its own social plans.
Abortion is increasin
gly being re-examined as a moral issue - something that
never happened under
 atheism. And the law, which once reflected communist
principles, now often 
supports the position of the church.
After the communists were ousted from P
oland in 1989, banning abortion
became a primary goal of the country's bisho
ps. The resulting legislation
was directly sponsored by the church; many leg
islators who voted in favour
of the law admitted they had done so as a conce
ssion to Pope John Paul II.
In Hungary the powerful anti-abortion crusade wh
ich led to the new law in
that country was also spearheaded by the Roman Cat
holic Church.
However, in Russia atheism is still entrenched. Unlike Poland,
 where 95 per
cent of the population is Roman Catholic, the church in Russia
 has not, so
far, emerged as a major political force.
Here, the factor behin
d the conservative backlash appears to be nationalism.
As in Hungary, the nu
mber of births in Russia has not kept pace with the
rising number of deaths.
 As a result, the abortion debate has centred on
nationalist fears about dec
lining population.
In the first six months of 1993 there were 120,000 fewer 
births than in the
same period last year, and 178,000 more deaths, the Russi
an newspaper
Moskovskaya Pravda reported on its front page recently. Althoug
h
demographers say it is normal for a country's birth rate to fall during bi
g
social upheavals, such as industrialisation, or, in this case, a shift to 
a
market-oriented economy, Russian nationalists often speak of the declining

birth rate in apocalyptic tones. Ultra-nationalist vice-president Alexander

Rutskoi told a stunned audience of women at a conference that it was up to

them to 'save the motherland' by having more babies. (It was supposed to be

a business conference).
The abortion debate is also a manifestation of what 
Andrei Popov, a medical
researcher who has studied abortion in Russia for 13
 years, calls the
'post-communist syndrome' - an eagerness to undo former po
licies: a
knee-jerk reaction which Popov compares with the frenzied toppling
 of
socialist realist statues of communist heroes that began two years ago.

'If abortions were allowed under the communists, it means abortions must be

bad because the communists are bad', Popov explains. 'There is a tendency to

want to stamp out what we had yesterday and turn everything on its head.'
B
ut Popov and others insist that banning, or even restricting, abortion
would
 have graver consequences for women in Russia than elsewhere because it
has 
been virtually the sole means of regulating fertility for much longer.
'In e
astern Europe, their abortion history didn't start until after the
second wo
rld war', says Popov; in Russia, abortion was first legalised under
Lenin in
 1920.
However, since no contraception was available, by the mid-1920s there
 was a
shortage of beds in state-run abortion clinics, and fee-charging
'com
mercial' clinics opened to meet demand. By the 1960s, says Popov, a
formidab
le abortion lobby had emerged.
Inside the upper echelons of the ministry of 
health, a powerful cadre of
doctors, who earned handsome fees for providing 
'extra' services such as
anaesthesia during abortions, 'blocked the producti
on and development of the
contraceptive industry to protect their own intere
sts.'
In a propaganda campaign designed to discredit birth control pills, th
e
doctors warned that they could cause cancer and even madness. In true
cent
ralised fashion, a report detailing all the so-called side effects of
oral c
ontraceptives was distributed to all doctors, hospitals, and clinics
across 
the Soviet Union. As a result, abortion became the only means of
regulating 
fertility that was trusted.
'Everyone was sure that abortion was the best me
thod and this attitude
persists today, especially among older doctors', says
 Popov. In 1991,
3,442,395 legal abortions were performed in Russia, almost 
2m more than the
number of babies born in the same period.
Family planning p
rogrammes are just beginning to emerge, and while IUDs and
condoms are avail
able, they are often expensive and of sub-standard quality.
Result: most peo
ple are poorly informed about them.
Anita Pollack says she hopes that the co
ntroversy over the bill might have
at least one positive effect - to help br
ing women together. 'There's a
whole different aspect to democracy which is 
ill-understood in these
countries, which is that all this freedom is very we
ll but you have to get
together and fight for your rights. It's a painful an
d difficult thing to
do, and is perhaps something that's new, but it's part 
of the democratic
process.'
Russian women say they will put up a vociferous 
legislative fight. But even
if the bill is quashed, concern among those who 
favour abortion will not
disappear.
Ironically, if Boris Yeltsin's version o
f the constitution - which is
generally liberal, apart from the 'progressive
 demographic policy' clause -
is adopted, Russia's democratisation process c
ould spell a setback to
women's rights.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>R
UZ  Russia, East Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9211 Courts.
   
 P9199 General Government, NEC.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment &
 Analysis.
    GOVT  Legal issues.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>