FXUS04 KWBC 250743
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
242 AM EST THU MAR 25 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 26/1200 UTC THRU MAR 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

 
DAY 1...

OUTSIDE OF AREAS FROM NRN CA INTO THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...THERE
CONTS TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PCPN DETAILS DAY 1 IN THE MULTI
STREAM FLOW ACRS THE NATION.


NRN CA...PAC NW...NRN ROCKIES....

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG HT FALLS AND ASSOC FRONTAL BAND FCST TO MOVE INLAND INTO
NRN CA NWD INTO THE PAC NW THU..AND THEN INLAND INTO THE
GTBASIN/NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND PCPN...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS FROM NRN CA NWD INTO THE PAC NW. 
THE ETA AND GFS WERE ALSO IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH TIMING OF
SECONDARY VORT ROTATING INLAND LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
OVR OR/NRN CA....WITH PCPN ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE.    OVERALL...THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASING PWS WL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN FROM NRN CA NWD
INTO WA/OR TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES AND OVR NRN ID.  STRONGEST
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE ONSHORE FLOW WL BE ACRS NRN CA INTO
THE SIERRA.  HERE 1-2" PCPN AMTS ARE POSSIBLE  

UPR MS VALLEY/GTLKS...

LESS CERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS DAY 1 ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY INTO THE GTLKS WITH EXPECTED PCPN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AT
LEAST TWO STREAMS OF MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG ENEWD FROM
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPR MS VALLEY/GTLKS
REGION AND AHEAD OF A SFC CDFNT SINKING SWD THRU THE UPR MS
VALLEY INTO THE GTLKS REGION.  THE MANUAL DAY 1 QPF PROG TOOK A
BLEND BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS HERE...DEPICTING POTENTIAL FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE STREAMS.  INDIVIDUAL SREF
MEMBERS FROM THE ETA AND RSM WERE SHOWING LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLNS...ADDING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS HERE.   WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DETAILS...IT IS HIGHER WITH OVERALL PCPN
POTENTIAL GIVEN MODEL SOLNS OF INCREASING MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS AND SFC FRONT...WITH UVVS BEING
ENHANCED BY WELL DEFINED UPR DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF
THE WLYS.  DAY 1 QPF EMPHASIZED .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS ASSOC WITH THE
MORE SRN STREAM OF SHRTWV ENRGY MOVG FROM NE...EWD INTO IA...NRN
IL/SRN WI AND THE L.P. OF MI.  THESE HT FALLS WL BE CLOSER TO THE
SRN
EDGE OF THE WLYS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPR
DIFFLUENCE MAX.   .25-.50+ PCPN AMTS DEPICTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVR CNTRL TO ERN MN INTO WRN WI WITH THE FARTHER NWD STREAM OF
MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENRGY.


NRN MID ATL...

WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONT TO OVERRUN THE SFC FRONTAL
BNDRY PRESENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER LAKES ESEWD INTO THE
UPR OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATL.  DAY 1 MANUAL QPF WENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN...DEPICTING .25"+ PCPN POTENTIAL FOR NERN
PA/NRN NJ... AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH ONGOING
PCPN AREA.  

NRN NY/NEW ENGLAND....

PCPN ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1 ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG ACRS SRN QB/NRN
NY/NEW ENGLAND.   MODELS DEPICT .10-.25"+ PCPN POTENTIAL ACRS
THESE
AREAS.

SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY....

SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
DETAILS OF PCPN IN THE SRN MOST STREAM ACRS THE U.S.  ATTM...GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE WENT WITH LIGHTER ETA AMTS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVIER PCPN AMTS POSSIBLE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SRN STREAM VORT CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD.  


DAY 2...                 

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PRESSING EWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN ERN CANADA.  THE GFS
IS WETTER THAN THE ETA...BUT FELT THAT A BLEND WOULD BE BEST
HERE.  IN THE NRN PLAINS...HERE TOO A BLEND WAS USED...BUT
WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE ETA DUE TO THE GFS SHOWING GRID-
SCALE FEEDBACK DURING THE FINAL 6 HRS OF THE PERIOD.  IN THE
WEST...AS MENTIONED IN THE PMDHMD THE ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST
BEHIND THE MAIN TROF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A CONSENSUS OF
THE OTHER FCST MODELS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE BAGGINESS SEEN
IN THE GFS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FHR 60.  THUS MANUAL
QPF LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS.



ORAVEC/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 488942 496855 495848 500763 495709 473662 461649 429646 
      414659 403672 393691 392702 389707 388713 384727 386741 
      391757 400794 402811 402823 398836 395844 391851 384859 
      382865 378871 363890 353899 347903 343905 339905 317907 
      310906 304907 299907 295907 293910 282928 280932 280941 
      279946 280953 281959 284966 287972 290977 299975 304971 
      308967 313962 317958 327953 331951 336950 343960 355966 
      356967 357972 359981 361985 365990 370990 375988 386981 
      391978 394978 396979 398983 400989 404993 407000 410008 
      419033 424044 428051 431052 435050 440050 447048 451046 
      454044 455041 455036 452029 444015 439002 437995 434988 
      432983 434979 438975 446970 470965 475963 479958 484953 
      487947 488942 
 0.01 529218 532205 534197 534190 533181 531178 528170 524162 
      519155 515147 512142 509140 498129 483123 474121 470118 
      462112 457098 447093 437091 424091 418100 414115 411129 
      406140 398148 395163 396178 402187 403194 397194 388190 
      370173 367176 363178 360178 348185 345195 346204 346211 
      347221 348231 352242 360252 372260 390269 411271 448265 
      483278 494291 499299 502302 506300 514278 518268 521255 
      522245 525235 529218 
 0.01 272803 269798 266796 262795 256795 249798 244802 242805 
      241809 241815 245821 248823 251822 255816 258812 263808 
      268807 271805 272803 
 0.25 466682 461676 455671 449670 443672 435677 432680 431684 
      432688 434690 439694 446697 452697 459695 463692 465688 
      466682 
 0.25 524197 524190 524184 520175 516167 510161 502155 497149 
      495144 492140 486134 480130 475129 472133 471137 473139 
      483141 485143 487148 487152 486154 481154 473150 468143 
      464141 459141 453146 450149 446148 443145 440141 438139 
      435141 433147 433154 435159 437162 443167 447175 446179 
      445181 442183 441186 443190 449195 453195 455191 460185 
      463182 465179 464176 457172 454168 455167 457165 459168 
      461170 463172 466172 469171 472171 475173 480180 486185 
      496189 505192 515198 521200 524197 
 0.25 510269 512262 514252 513245 512237 508225 504215 498205 
      495202 490200 486199 484200 481201 471204 462206 458207 
      454210 447213 437214 427215 419217 403205 395200 391198 
      387195 380189 371186 368187 366189 365192 361202 357213 
      355219 355226 355232 357236 360242 384256 406262 423257 
      433256 441255 452255 463257 474262 483268 491275 498283 
      503286 510269 
 0.25 463955 475932 480915 482898 479887 468894 459906 446921 
      438930 433926 438912 454894 467877 479852 476815 456812 
      430832 397861 393865 386874 373893 371899 384929 396938 
      408950 419958 443962 463955 
 0.25 419764 418756 416749 412743 410740 406736 403736 401740 
      401746 402753 405760 407767 410774 413780 415782 417780 
      419775 419768 419764 
 0.50 504276 506269 507260 509253 509243 508237 506231 502221 
      498212 492210 487209 482208 480208 474209 470210 454215 
      437218 432220 429223 427229 425230 419229 416226 414215 
      389198 381192 377190 372189 369191 370196 373205 374209 
      371211 365216 364222 364229 366237 373242 383246 388249 
      394250 404252 412253 421253 431253 440252 456252 467253 
      473256 478259 490271 497276 502278 504276 
 0.50 510179 510175 509173 504168 492162 479156 474154 471153 
      469149 465144 462145 457148 453155 449157 449160 452161 
      457159 460158 464161 468164 475166 483174 490178 498179 
      503182 507183 510179 
 0.50 491239 492235 491231 489225 487223 481221 477221 472222 
      469223 465226 468229 472228 477226 481231 485235 488235 
      490238 491239 
 0.50 471921 468918 463919 460920 455925 452927 450934 449940 
      452944 455943 460938 462934 465931 468927 471921 
 0.50 419852 394876 390882 384890 381898 382904 386905 390904 
      394904 398904 401908 403915 404921 405926 408933 413932 
      420925 428914 438899 457859 454847 450842 447839 441838 
      436840 431844 419852 
 0.50 459228 456226 453225 452226 453230 456229 459228 459228 
 0.50 463178 462177 459177 456178 455176 454175 452176 452180 
      450183 449183 450185 452187 456186 456185 459183 460182 
      462179 463178 
 1.00 497269 495267 494268 495268 497269 497269 
 1.00 470245 470240 465236 460233 452234 443236 441237 435237 
      428235 418233 416232 413227 413221 411218 407218 405221 
      403226 399226 391226 387227 385229 384234 384238 390243 
      399247 417249 424249 429249 432248 440245 448246 458246 
      465244 470245 
 1.00 463221 463220 460219 457219 460224 463222 463221 
 1.00 452222 451221 448220 448221 448222 451222 452222 
 1.00 436857 434856 431858 429859 429860 426864 425865 424867 
      422870 425872 428870 430867 432864 434862 435859 436857 
 1.00 412904 411913 415917 421916 424911 425897 425893 424890 
      423886 422886 421887 420890 419892 417895 417896 415900 
      415901 412904 
 1.00 404217 402211 400208 395204 392202 387199 384196 379193 
      376193 374195 377199 380202 383205 387209 390213 393215 
      398218 401218 404217 
 1.50 431244 430240 425237 419235 414233 409234 404235 399232 
      396232 395233 395237 397242 403245 408246 412246 417246 
      423247 426247 431244 
 1.50 398211 397209 396207 394206 392204 389203 387205 388206 
      391208 393210 394210 396212 398211 
 2.00 427243 427242 425239 422238 419237 419236 416235 415235 
      413238 412238 413239 415241 418243 421244 424244 427243 
      427243  
 
24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 521269 522260 523254 528235 523223 521218 522214 533214 
      540192 541184 538132 530094 528076 536070 546062 549045 
      546011 543991 545979 547962 542941 540935 525904 507902 
      505904 478914 466919 457917 448915 440912 436908 434903 
      429891 427883 428878 433870 435865 440861 449856 460851 
      464847 479847 488852 496865 503863 517822 524790 529741 
      522685 502647 487628 475616 457616 443633 442633 436643 
      430650 420661 414669 407679 398690 386708 372734 362754 
      360757 361763 362773 364781 364786 365794 364799 364809 
      363823 364832 363844 363857 364866 364871 362877 361885 
      360892 358901 354910 349919 342927 339931 333933 313937 
      307939 303942 297947 291954 287959 282967 280972 280976 
      282986 285996 289008 292013 295017 300018 306017 318010 
      331019 337025 341025 346024 349020 353017 360011 365009 
      370008 384009 391010 400012 411016 417018 418025 418035 
      417043 417048 414051 410052 405052 395055 384053 379052 
      373053 364054 361057 363061 364064 368073 378091 377103 
      377109 374115 371126 370135 373141 377143 381142 390138 
      396138 400142 401146 400151 402156 408159 410164 412169 
      414174 417180 418182 413188 407194 404197 400199 394206 
      391222 385232 386244 388249 391252 396254 400254 420261 
      436260 441259 449259 457262 466266 478272 493278 503286 
      509289 514286 
 0.01 321982 327975 331972 333967 331965 325967 322971 319974 
      315976 314980 315984 318986 321982 
 0.01 302814 301810 298807 294804 290799 283798 277797 273797 
      269799 270807 275812 280813 286816 292817 298816 302814 
 0.25 499776 510756 513733 497693 482660 471643 460642 445656 
      433672 428694 423703 416703 408705 401719 406726 417729 
      416741 412756 407774 402782 398789 392799 387810 380824 
      377833 378843 380850 380857 379867 378878 376890 373907 
      371917 368924 362931 358940 357962 354976 358983 366985 
      374979 378969 376958 376949 384935 393928 403920 407902 
      409880 410872 411862 412852 413842 416832 420827 423825 
      431824 437822 444819 452815 462808 471803 480796 488790 
      496781 499776 
 0.25 512271 513263 513252 512240 511232 505219 501211 495204 
      491200 488198 484199 471202 444207 420213 411219 407223 
      403229 400237 401243 404246 409249 416251 425253 439251 
      452251 467253 478256 483259 492266 502275 505277 512274 
      512271 
 0.25 521187 521182 519174 516167 514163 507156 498149 490146 
      480141 472136 467134 460133 452136 445142 441145 438148 
      436157 437162 447183 453184 458182 462178 465176 470175 
      474175 479177 487182 497189 505192 509193 514193 518190 
      521187 
 0.25 481030 504032 515039 524037 526020 521997 518983 516974 
      516967 516949 517940 518934 517927 512921 506918 501919 
      497922 490935 486943 480950 474955 469958 459962 451964 
      438968 430972 423977 420984 421988 424994 427997 431001 
      435007 437012 437018 440024 448027 454029 462030 470030 
      474029 481030 
 0.50 476678 472676 468676 463680 462686 461692 460697 458703 
      457708 461708 466704 470698 473696 476688 476683 476678 
 0.50 468744 476730 483719 477711 469721 461731 455738 450745 
      451751 451754 454756 460753 464749 468744 
 0.50 457677 451669 444672 441679 445686 450687 453685 457677 
 0.50 481771 480769 479768 477768 474769 471770 469773 466775 
      464777 464778 462782 461784 462788 464789 467789 470788 
      472786 475784 478782 480779 481776 481773 481771 
 0.50 501266 502261 501253 503243 503235 500225 498219 494212 
      492210 487207 481209 477212 468211 462211 458212 451217 
      447220 442221 434224 426229 411238 412242 417245 423246 
      426246 435245 446245 465245 476249 481251 488254 495260 
      501266 
 0.50 511942 511933 508929 506927 503926 500928 498931 488949 
      483960 481964 475968 467972 455975 446978 442982 439987 
      442002 443006 444011 446014 448016 454017 466015 474011 
      479007 483003 488996 491991 494983 497974 502963 506953 
      509948 511942 
 0.50 401870 402862 400855 396853 394853 392858 390863 389869 
      388875 387879 387886 390891 395888 398884 400880 401874 
      401870 
 1.00 479239 477237 476237 473237 475238 477239 479239  
 
$$