AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
358 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY MID                  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH              
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                 
COAST WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE                   
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THE               
FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK               
NORTH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT                
WILL THEN STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE TRI- STATE FROM               
THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
OTHER THAN A TRACE FROM SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT                 
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM N CENTRAL CT TO ROCKLAND COUNTY...BACK            
INTO CENTRAL PA AT 19Z...WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY BY MID                
EVENING. 18Z RUC SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE RETREATING RAPIDLY TO THE SW               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY DOWN FROM ALOFT AS                
THE 850 COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY S OF LONG ISLAND BY 18Z...ALSO                   
EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZE THE EXTENT OF ANY LIFT GENERATED BY THE                    
SURFACE FRONT TO AROUND 5000 FT...NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY                 
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION. WHILE A STRAY SPRINKLE WITH ITS PASSAGE                  
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF A SPRINKLE AT               
ANY ONE PLACE IS AT BEST 10 PCT...AND THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE                  
PRECIPITATION EVEN LESS THAN THAT.                                              
SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL                      
PASSAGE. WITH CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT (AT THE                   
LATEST) AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL END UP WITH GOOD                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE LATTER 1/2 OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR              
LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS (EXCEPT IN               
THE NYC HEAT ISLAND WHERE LOWS WILL STILL BE 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE 40S...MAKING TONIGHT               
MUCH LESS HUMID THAN LAST NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED A                   
BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FOLLOWED THE NAM WITH THE                
BACKDOOR FRONT (NAM HISTORICALLY HANDLES BACK DOOR FRONTS BETTER                
THAN THE GFS).                                                                  
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                    
MORNING...THEN ALL RIDGE AXES MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.               
THIS ALLOWS FOR CONFLUENT FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN NEW                  
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...SUPPORTING                 
THE BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THAT REGION THURSDAY...PUSHING               
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH US TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST BY                      
THURSDAY EVENING.                                                               
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH                  
HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON              
TUESDAY TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY (AWAY FROM THE              
COAST/LONG ISLAND WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY              
TO NEAR TUESDAYS LEVELS). LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-5 DEGREES                   
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                       
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE TRICKY...TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON THE                  
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT. IF IT DOES NOT PUSH               
THROUGH UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND                    
LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH COASTAL/LONG                 
ISLAND LOCATIONS GENERALLY 75 TO 80. IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH                
DURING THE MORNING...COASTAL/LONG ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE                
TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S (WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING MID 50S TO                
LOWER 60S)...WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WON/T GET MUCH PAST THE MID                 
70S. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES WITH                
AREAS N/W OF NYC GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S...METRO NYC/INTERIOR                
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF OUR CWA GETTING TO AROUND 80...MOST              
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL WESTERN AND INTERIOR                 
EASTERN CT GETTING TO THE MID 70S...AND EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND                  
GETTING TO 65-70. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE PORTIONS THU                
MORNING FOR SHOWERS...THEN CHC POPS ALL BUT FAR SW THU AFTERNOON                
FOR SHRA/TSRA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AND                          
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY                  
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT (LIKELY                  
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE) THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH                 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (FOR NOW USED GFS TIMING TO CLEAR FRONT TO THE              
NORTH). QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH NO REAL                 
CLEAR SIGNAL FROM ANY ONE MODEL OR ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. FOR NOW IT               
APPEARS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THE                 
FRONT COULD SINK BACK TO OUR SOUTH COME LATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER                  
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE MIDWEST CUTOFF MOVES                             
EASTWARD...BRINGING ITS COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH IT...AND FINALLY               
THE EVOLUTION OF ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE/SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY.              
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH                    
KEEPS THE BACK DOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS THE COLD FRONT                
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY DEVELOPMENT              
IN THE GULF (NO CLEAR SIGNAL FROM ALL ITS MEMBERS).                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
VFR. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT               
BEFORE 00Z...ONLY WORTH MENTION OF TEMPO BROKEN VFR CIGS ATTM.                  
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W-NW 10-15 KT AT KHPN/KSWF...BUT ARE STILL VARYING           
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 240-290 AT KTEB/KEWR...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS A                  
LITTLE OVER 15 KT. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR AT LEAST A              
COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.                 
SEA BREEZE REGIME IS IN PLACE AT COASTAL TERMINALS...INCLUDING KLGA             
WHICH WAS JUST ON THE EDGE PER JFK TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR...WITH SW             
FLOW 10-15 KT. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SHIFT NW THIS EVENING              
WITH COLD FROPA...ABOUT 23Z AT COASTAL CT TERMINALS AND 00Z NYC AREA            
AND KISP.                                                                       
SKIES THEN QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW               
INTO TUE MORNING. SEA BREEZES SHOULD REDEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS             
BY 15Z-16Z.                                                                     
OUTLOOK FROM 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...VFR THU MORNING.                             
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THU                   
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE              
THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WITH LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA             
FROM THE EAST AFTER BACK DOOR COLD FROPA. WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL              
CONVECTION WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH                 
FRI/SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS EVENING WITH                
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO W EARLY ON BECOMING NW TO N BY LATE TONIGHT.              
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH                 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE               
NORTH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO SE...HOWEVER SUB SCA              
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN                   
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.5 INCHES OR MORE) IS                 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT LEVELS                 
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY                  
FALL.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...MALOIT                                                       
AVIATION...BG                                                                   
MARINE...JC                                                                     
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
400 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...BUT            
NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL SOMETIME DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THE AIR WILL REMAIN              
JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO A STRAY SHOWER OR POPUP THUNDERSTORM BUT                
OVERALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL ENJOY A COMPLETELY               
DRY MEMORIAL DAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH                        
PRESSURE...FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO               
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
WE STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED "PINHEAD" SHOWERS LINGERING ON OUR                  
RADAR...MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE COLD FRONT ALSO SHOWS UP              
AS A "FINE" LINE...WORKING JUST TO THE LAKE OF ONTARIO...MOVING                 
ABOUT 40 MPH. SUSPECT THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN A BIT AS IT RUNS                
INTO THE RESISTANCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...BUT EVEN SO...SHOULD             
STILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.                               
IFR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AN OVERALL "WARMING" OF CLOUD                     
TOPS...A SIGNATURE OF WEAKENING FORCING.                                        
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC INFORMATION...SBCAPES START OFF IN THE              
POSITIVE MODE ACROSS THE ENTIRE EARLY...AND ACCORDING TO MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS...COULD JUMP AS HIGH AS ABOUT 1000 J/KG LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH            
VALUES ARE LOWER IN THE BUFKIT.                                                 
ONE PROBLEM EARLY WILL BE PATCHY FOG...FOUND IN THOSE SHELTERED                 
VALLEYS WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND THE GROUND IS WET FROM THE            
EARLIER RAINS. WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
BY MIDDAY...SBCAPES ARE PROJECTED DROP QUITE A BIT FROM ALBANY NORTH            
AND WESTWARD. TO THE SOUTHEAST...SBCAPES COULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG             
UNTIL ABOUT 4 PM...WITH THE BUFKIT SHOWING VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG.              
WHILE FORCING IS WEAK...WITH THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE COLD                    
FRONT...LIFTING NORTHEAST...WE FELL THERE COULD JUST BE ENOUGH                  
INSTABILITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO TRIGGER A             
RANDOM SHOWER OR STORM. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO             
THESE AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.                                       
PLUGGING IN VALUES OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FROM KPOU INTO THE                   
MAGLENTA EQUATION...                                                            
SBCAPES = 600 J/KG                                                              
MAX SOUNDING WIND = 80 KTS                                                      
EHI = -.25                                                                      
SRH =   21                                                                      
GIVE US A VALUE OF 3.3 WHICH IS CONSIDERED IN THE MINOR EVENT RANGE             
SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP.                                                      
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY                
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE NOSE OF THE H850 (ONLY ABOUT 30 KTS)                
DOES NOT LINE UP WITH ANY DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE LF QUAD OF THE                
UPPER JET REMAINS WELL NORTH. THERE IS ONLY VERY LIMITED SPEED SHEAR            
IN THE COLUMN. EITHER WAY...THE THREAT FROM SEVERE IS WAY TOO LOW TO            
INCLUDE IN OUTLOOK. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE WET-BULB ZERO                 
LOOKS TO FALL TO ABOUT 8KFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS VALUE IS A              
BIT LOW FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF LARGE HAIL STONES...BUT COULD REAP             
SMALL ONES. HOWEVER...AGAIN SINCE THE THREAT OF STORMS IS SO LOW TO             
BEGIN WITH...AT THIS POINT FEEL NO NEED TO PLACE ANY MENTION OF                 
ENHANCED WORDING OF ANY KIND IN ANY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                  
BY TONIGHT...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE            
SCENE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN. THE               
SKY WILL CLEAR AND FINE LATE SPRING WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE                
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO                    
LAST...WAS TO LOWER CLOUDS TO THE CLEAR THRESHOLD MUCH OF THE                   
TIME.                                                                           
WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEEING NO REASON TO             
SIGNIFICANTLY STRAY FROM VALUES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
HERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE MODELS AS WE HEAD              
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL            
AGREEMENT IS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.              
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID WEEK WITH A             
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING EASTWARD. THE EASTERN              
UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH            
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A CUT-OFF LOW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
COLD FRONT WAS SLICING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PROGRESSING EAST             
BETWEEN 30-35 KTS.  WHILE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED AND            
IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO               
DEVELOP UNTIL FROPA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO THIS WILL KEEP THE              
MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A RELATIVELY             
LIGHT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FROPA.                                                  
FOR MON...EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FIRST THING IN              
THE MORNING...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED IFR...ESP AT KGFL....                
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z-15Z/MON.  FRONT MIGHT BE             
A LITTLE CLOSER TO KPOU WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL               
EXIST FOR TODAY.  HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF             
TODAY.                                                                          
WINDS BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15                    
KT...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT             
KALB WHERE FUNNELING OF WIND DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD OCCUR.               
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR NO SIG WX.                                          
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE FOR                
SCATTERED CONVECTION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
PARTLY SUNNY...COOLER...AND EVENTUALLY DRIER MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE              
MIDDAY HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND WINDS FROM THE                
WEST 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH.                   
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN WILL BE 75-95 PERCENT             
AT NIGHT AND AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THE            
WIND WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY AND               
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.  LOOKING AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY                
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.                 
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS WITH DAYTIME RH VALUES AROUND 30                
PERCENT AND NIGHT READINGS WELL INTO THE 90 PERCENTILE.                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RIVERS CONTINUE AT LOW FLOWS RESULTING FROM A PROLONGED PERIOD OF               
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AVERAGED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER               
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO THE                    
RIVERS/STREAMS (THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM ALBANY INTO THE               
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND                
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTER WHICH ANOTHER                      
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV                                                                
NEAR TERM...HWJIV                                                               
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...HWJIV                                                               
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...BGM                                                              
HYDROLOGY...BGM                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING              
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE            
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL IN NATURE AT THIS TIME RUNNING             
ALONG THE NORTHER TIER OF STATES. TWO FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVES ARE              
SEEN EMBEDDED WITH THE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER              
EXITING THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S AND CANADIAN                   
MARITIMES. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW FROM OUR FORECAST AREA            
WE SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS TROUGH            
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAY FINALLY             
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR DROUGHT                      
STRICKEN REGION BY THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.                                    
LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING              
TO NOSE BACK OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OUR                 
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS                
RIDGE. 28/00Z KTLH SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING ONCE AGAIN SHOWED VERY            
IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL MIXING UP TO 8KFT+. THE SUPPRESSING EFFECTS OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE ARE ALSO STILL SEEN WITH A HEALTHY WARM LAYER CAP IN            
THE MID LEVELS AND NO LACK OF DRY AIR THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE                 
COLUMN.                                                                         
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA ENDURED ANOTHER DAY            
OF SMOKE ON SUNDAY WITH THE PLUME MIGRATING WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH             
THE FLOW. GENERALLY THIS PLUME STAYED TO THE NORTH OF OUR FLORIDA               
ZONES YESTERDAY AND A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED.                                                
ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE FORECAST            
AREA. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL ALSO                 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH REGION WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THE TIGHT            
GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY WILL RELAX A              
BIT BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HEALTHY SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS             
TO DEVELOP. AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE GEORGIA WILDFIRES (MAINLY                     
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA) SHOULD PREPARE FOR ANOTHER DAY             
OF SMOKE/HAZE WITH THE THICKEST SMOKE AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES STILL             
AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF VALDOSTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE                 
FIRES. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF THE RETURN OF SOME                     
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN THE WEST WITH               
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND MAKING             
IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MAY OUTSIDE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL            
STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED. CAN NOT              
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA              
PANHANDLE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...HOWEVER FEEL ANY COVERAGE WILL BE              
VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE KEEPING POPS IN THE SILENT 5-10% RANGE. AS              
HAS BEEN THE SITUATION DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL EXPECT A RATHER            
HEALTHY CU FIELD TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING              
WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6-7KFT. MIXING FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOWN               
FROM AROUND 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON GIVES AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES               
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST             
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS              
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.                   
UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE BEGINS TO SLIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST               
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN             
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX WITH SHOWER COVERAGE                    
INCREASING TO OUR WEST. FEEL THAT THE MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE MODELS              
IS A BIT OVERDONE AND QUICK TO COME EAST...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND              
TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING POPS OFFSHORE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE            
CALL FOR PLACES LIKE WALTON AND BAY COUNTIES AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE            
EXPANDED INTO THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. EITHER WAY MID/HIGH LEVEL                
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST HELPING KEEP                   
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.                     
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL              
GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT            
MOVE MUCH...THE GFS SHOWS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY                    
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO OUR GENERAL VICINITY. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY             
ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR FACT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE              
IS CONTINUING TO BREAK DOWN AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE                
RISE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS SLOWLY NORTHEAST IS ENOUGH TO                
FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT RE-INTRODUCE POPS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND                 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  WILL GENERALLY KEEP               
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS (20-30%) BOTH DAYS WITH                    
CONVECTION STILL WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. BEST CHANCES AS                    
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...                  
ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL            
HAVE EVEN LESS SUPPRESSION FROM ABOVE. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS            
A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR GEORGIA ZONES AND DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE                 
EASTERN BIG BEND WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE SILENT 5-10% RANGE AS              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE BE LACKING AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL              
STILL BE IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY.                                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUN.                                              
STILL SOME QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO             
THE LATER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN                 
TERMS OF SURFACE PATTERN. BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST. THURSDAY WILL                 
STILL SEE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST BUT TRYING TO MAKE            
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND WITH THE HELP              
OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST             
REGIONWIDE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY PLACE THAT STILL LOOKS                  
UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION IS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WHERE                 
MOISTURE MAY STILL BE LACKING. BY LATE FRIDAY THE UPPER PATTERN                 
ACROSS THE CONUS IS BECOMING VERY AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY JUNE WITH A               
LARGE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE              
NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE PATTERN ONLY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND WITH A VERY DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD               
WILL AID CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE              
POPS FOR ALL ZONES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE             
COLUMNS POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER WARM BUT WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER              
LEVELS THERE MAY BE TIMES OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS IN              
MIND RAN TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SEVERAL                
DEGREES WARMER ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ANY DAY IF SIGNIFICANT                    
SUNSHINE OCCURS.                                                                
WAS HOPING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN                     
CARRIBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND                 
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY THE GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT.            
THE GFS IS SHOWING A RATHER WEAK WAVE MOVING UP WITH JUST AN                    
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET DEVELOP THE            
SYSTEM A BIT MORE BRINGING A CLOSED LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST                      
GULF ON SATURDAY...THEN CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CANADIAN            
WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM ALL ALONG IS SHOWING THE                
CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GOMEX INTO OUR AREA.                
WITH AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS THERE IS AT THIS TIME...HAVE RAN THE                
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AS IS SUGGESTED BY HPC WHILE                
WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT APPEARS             
AS THOUGH THERE WILL FINALLY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY BENEFICIAL            
RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE                   
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST            
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO COME UP TO CAUTION LEVELS             
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK                
THEN DROP BELOW CAUTION EACH MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM                  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CHANCE FOR              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE               
COASTAL WATERS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE SMOKE PLUME HAS REMAINED NORTH OF THE FL/GA BORDER DURING                   
PREDAWN HOURS. LAST FEW NIGHTS VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN AND SEE NO               
REASON TO DEVIATE FORM THIS PATTERN NEXT 24 HRS. THUS... LIGHT ESE              
FLOW UNTIL TILL 3-4AM WITH GREATEST IMPACT AT ABY WITH OCNL IFR                 
VSBYS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT VLD AND DHN WITH MVFR VSBYS.                    
THEN...WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM AND ABY IMPROVES TO MVFR AND VLD                  
DETERIORATE TO IFR. BY MID MORNING...WINDS PICK UP AND ORIENT BACK              
TO W-E SO VLD REMAINS MOST PROBLEMATIC WITH MVFR VSBYS THRU DAYLIGHT            
HOURS. EXPECT FLA TAF SITES TO REMAIN SOUTH OF SMOKE.                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAIRLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW               
FOR LATE MAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE               
RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES REACHING THE UPPER                   
30S...CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST            
TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA BIG             
BEND ON TUESDAY AND WITH SIMILAR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS THE CURRENT                
GRIDS DO SHOW 1 TO 3 HOURS OF RH AROUND 35 PERCENT. THESE RH VALUES             
COMBINED WITH DISPERSION INDICES ABOVE 75 HAVE PROMPTED A FIRE WX               
WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA                   
PANHANDLE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MORE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD END             
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN            
PANHANDLE AND SE AL, WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS            
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  87  65  89  64  89 /  05  05  10  10  20                           
PANAMA CITY  86  68  86  69  87 /  05  10  20  10  20                           
DOTHAN       87  65  88  65  88 /  05  05  20  10  20                           
ALBANY       87  64  89  64  89 /   0   0  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     86  63  88  62  88 /   0   0  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   88  64  91  63  91 /  05  05  10  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...JEFFERSON...                      
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR.                                       
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
955 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEFLECT MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLIES AWAY                
FROM GEORGIA. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE BANDS OF               
HIGH CIRRUS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES MORE THAN                 
CENTRAL AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES            
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO              
BE ON TRACK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND 00Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING               
AND VAD WINDS AT 00Z SHOW THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING. A              
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS FORECAST BY THE RUC               
TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING AREAS OF SMOKE FARTHER NORTH                  
WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY AFFECTING COLUMBUS ALONG WITH AMERICUS AND                 
VIDALIA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...)                                                        
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH                 
MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE                      
ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT                
SAVE FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...THE SUBSIDENT HIGH               
PRESSURE IS NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS                   
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANY SIGNIFICANT                  
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND               
BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.                 
THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AREA WILL ALSO BE                    
LOFTED OVER THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SWALLOWED BY THE LARGER UPPER              
LOW WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN STATES CURRENTLY AS                
PER THIS MORNING`S 12Z UA ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL HAS ITS              
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...IT IS MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AND               
GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND THE NAM...THE GFS IS THE                
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM (ALTHOUGH GIVEN HOW LITTLE IS                
HAPPENING OVER THIS AREA IT REALLY DOESN`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH).               
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER                 
FIELD LATE THURSDAY AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE BRINGING PRECIP                
TO THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND                   
INCONSISTENCY OF LATE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD POPS AND WILL WAIT                
FOR MORE CONFIDENCE BEFORE PUTTING PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.                      
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/DGEX ALL INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WORKS                 
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...                       
TRANSITIONING INTO GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
COUNTRY...BEGINNING WITH THIS UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE                 
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY NOW. IT IS SUPPOSED TO WRAP UP                 
AND KICK THIS UPPER HIGH OUT...AND IN DOING SO SHOULD BRING MORE                
MOISTURE WITH IT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.                         
HOWEVER...TIMING IS THE QUESTION BECAUSE YET AGAIN THE WEAK                     
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK ON THE GFS...BUT WITH THE                  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THERE MAY STILL BE PRECIP LATE IN                
THE WEEKEND VERSUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                             
THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING               
IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPENS              
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS IS INDICATED ON BOTH THE GFS AND                 
THE ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MONITOR TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS                 
WITH IT...COULD JUST BE AN OUTLIER BUT SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE                   
IT...IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...FROM THE              
CAROLINAS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE                
STRONG OVER GEORGIA WITH SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS SURFACE HIGH              
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO DIURNALLY               
INDUCED SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CUMULUS AGAIN TOMORROW...THOUGH              
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF            
AN E/SE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE            
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. SMOKE IS REMAINING WELL                
SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HASN`T REACHED ANY            
OF OUR TAF AIRPORTS IN THE LAST 48HRS...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP             
A CLOSE EYE ON IT IN CASE WINDS DRAW IT TOWARD CSG OR MCN LATE                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
RRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          58  86  61  87  62 /   0   5   5   5   5                        
ATLANTA         65  85  65  86  64 /   0   5   5   5   5                        
BLAIRSVILLE     52  84  55  80  55 /   0   0   5  10  10                        
CARTERSVILLE    57  86  57  85  58 /   0   0   5   5   5                        
COLUMBUS        62  88  61  88  65 /   0   5   5   5   5                        
GAINESVILLE     62  86  63  84  63 /   0   5   5  10  10                        
MACON           58  91  60  92  63 /   0   5   5   5   5                        
ROME            56  88  60  84  60 /   0   0   5  10  10                        
PEACHTREE CITY  53  86  53  86  59 /   0   5   5   5   5                        
VIDALIA         63  91  62  89  64 /   0   0   5   5   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP/15                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
652 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION REGARDING MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                    
325 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON WARM TEMPERATURES               
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR                             
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                        
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR                  
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATING                
THIS TREND WITH SFC DEW PTS AT MDW HAVING INCREASED BY AROUND 10                
DEGREES OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH             
SFC DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES               
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 MILE RANGE             
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE SOME LOCALIZED DENSER FOG PATCHES               
THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.             
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +16 DEG C. MIXING DOWN               
THESE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S                
WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM TODAY. WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE             
TODAY...MAJORITY OF LAKE COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKE COUNTY              
ILLINOIS SHORELINE BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD            
REACH AROUND 80 GIVEN WARM AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.                               
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING            
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FEW SHORT WAVES NOTED IN UPSTREAM PROFILER             
DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS             
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TODAY. OTHER THAN THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES...NOT MUCH            
ELSE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT                   
SECTIONS FROM THE WRF/GFS INDICATING SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION             
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND              
SFC DEW PTS MIXING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS YIELD AROUND 200-400 J/KG OF MLCAPE TODAY. CANNOT                     
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTORM TODAY BUT GIVEN WEAK                 
SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OF ONLY WEAK SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE                        
RIDGE...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ONE THING THAT MAY NEED TO BE                   
WATCHED IS IF WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WEST OF THE LAKE                   
MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS BUT             
AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION.                          
FOR TONIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT                        
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ESPECIALLY            
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT                
WAVES ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND FROM UPPER LEVEL SHORT            
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT THIS FORCING WILL NOT LIKELY                  
ARRIVE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT              
DRY. ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TX            
WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND WITH MORE               
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE               
POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY                        
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD THIS CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD.                       
FOCUS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON EVOLUTION OF LARGE            
SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. 00Z RUNS HAVE                    
CONTINUED TREND OF SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH CANADIAN            
SOLUTION THE SLOWEST OF THESE SOLUTIONS...AND LATTER PERIODS OF THE             
WRF LOOKING ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MIDDLE             
OF THE ROAD GFS AT THIS TIME WHICH GENERALLY HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM            
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEANS EVEN A BIT SLOWER THAN              
OPERATIONAL GFS. PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINDER OF WEEK               
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS UPPER JET MAX CUTTING THROUGH BASE OF THIS            
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW APPROACHES EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.             
HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO NUDGE TO            
LIKELY POPS OVER NEXT FEW FORECASTS. GIVEN SLOWER TIMING TO UPPER               
LOW...HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE OF TSRA INTO SATURDAY AND NUDGED TEMPS UP            
TO NEAR 80 ON FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED LEFT AS IS.                         
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
652 AM CDT                                                                      
SFC WRMFRNT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING THROUGH NERN IL AT 11Z...WITH SFC             
ANALYSIS INDICATING FRONT APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM SRN LAKE              
MICHIGAN...TO KORD AND KJVL. SOME 2-6SM HZ/BR BEING REPORTED WITH               
LGT WIND FIELD AND INCRSG SFC DWPTS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT BUT THIS               
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT FIRST FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME              
SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOW LIFTING              
INTO WI WITH WEAK SHEAR/VORT AXIS NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING             
SCT DIURNAL VFR CU DVLPMNT WITH BASES IN 5-6 KFT RANGE.                         
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR             
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELPMENT TODAY. 06Z WRF/NAM AND RUC FCST                  
SOUDNINGS CONTINUE TO DVLP 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN            
IN WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SOUTH OF WRMFRNT LATE MORNING                
THROUGH AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK MID LVL SHEAR/VORT AXIS OVER MO/SRN IL               
FCST TO LIFT INTO NRN IL BY LATE AFTN. NO STRONG LLVL FOCUS FOR                 
INITIATION EVIDENT ATTM...THOUGH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT INTO                   
NORTHEAST COOK/LAKE COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE WEAK LLVL COVERNGENCE. AT            
THIS POINT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND POINT PROBABILITY MUCH TOO LOW              
TO INCLUDE ANY RW/TRW IN TAFS.                                                  
AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 150-160 DEG EARLY THIS                
MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND               
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE                   
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
SHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INTO AREAS NORTH/EAST OF              
KORD/KMDW THIS AFTN...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT EITHER AIRPORT. LGT            
SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
306 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE            
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY               
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS                
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER             
MIDWEST RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS               
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALSO PULL RELATIVELY WARM AIR NORTHWARD                
OVER THE LAKE...WHICH WILL TEND TO PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER               
THE COLDER LAKE WATER AND LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT                
RANGE OR SO.                                                                    
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A                 
SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN RCKYS/NRN                  
PLAINS NEXT SVRL DAYS. CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO            
SLOW APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                
SYSTEM...WHICH MAY NOT MOVE TO LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.                 
VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO DIFFERS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD               
FRONT SAGS FROM CANADA OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IN THURSDAY NIGHT            
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...BUT SOME GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN             
A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. HAVE BROUGHT WINDS AROUND ON NORTHERN LAKE            
MICHIGAN BASED ON THIS THINKING AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFOS                  
AROUND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
306 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION REGARDING AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                  
300 PM CDT                                                                      
NO SIG CHGS MADE TO FCST.  HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO NR TERM OF             
FCST BASED ON CURRENT SATLT/RADAR TRENDS.  SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD               
TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG SFC DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY ASSD             
WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NR DBQ-MMO-IKK-NR LAF.  THIS BOUNDARY            
HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD AND THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE.  AM              
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED AT LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION AS AREA HAS BEEN              
CLOUD COVERED MOST OF DAY LIMITING SFC BASED INSTABILITY...AND                  
ACARS/PROFILER DATA SHOWS VERY LIMITED LLVL WIND FLOW INTO MID MS               
VLY AND POINTS EWD.  NONETHELESS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TEXTURE              
INCRSG ALG WARM FRONT SUGGESTING POTL FOR SHOWERS TO CONT BUILDING              
WWD INTO PORTIONS OF N CNTRL-NERN IL.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF WARM                 
FRONT TO BECOME INACTIVE AS EVENING WEARS ON...BUT WILL MENTION CHC             
POPS FOR SCT SHWRS...PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD                 
ACROSS FA.  BETTER LLVL FORCING/NOCTURNAL TSTM POTL TO REFOCUS TO W             
AS LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM KS NNEWD INTO MN-NWRN WI OVERNIGHT.  SFC DEW            
POINTS TO CREEP UP TO ARND 60 OVR ENTIRE FA OVERNIGHT AS RGN GETS               
INTO WARM SECTOR.  THERFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER NAM MOS NUMBER              
ON MINS TNGT.                                                                   
WILL GO DRY TUES-TUES NIGHT AS CONVECTION INCREASES AND CONTINUES TO            
FOCUS ALONG SLOW MOVG N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVR PLAINS STAS AND AS              
DEEP TROF OVR NRN RCKYS EVOLVES INTO CLOSED LOW.  THIS WILL INDUCE              
INCREASE IN H5 HGTS E OF MS RVR DURG THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH DECENT              
HEATING OF WARM SECTOR...EXPECT CU FIELD TO DVLP IN WARM/SOMEWHAT               
HUMID AMS OVR RGN...BUT AGAIN...WITH SUBSIDENT AIR FCST OVR RGN WILL            
FAVOR DRY FCST FOR NOW.                                                         
EVENTUALLY...CLOSED LOW OVR NRN PLAINS FCST TO DVLP NEG TILT TROF               
ALG ITS PERIPHERY...ALLOWING AXES OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND MORE              
SIG LLVL WIND FLOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...INCRSG TSTM CHCS OVR RGN.              
HOWEVER...WILL JUST CONTINUE EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHC POPS FROM                   
WED/WED AFTN THRU FRI NGT AS AREA WILL RMN IN MT AIR MASS.                      
HOWEVER...JUST BETWEEN YOU AND ME...I WOULD EXPECT TSTM CHCS/COVG TO            
INCREASE AS WEEK GOES ON AS H5 HGTS LWR AND IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND              
DEEP UPR LOW OVER NRN PLAINS.                                                   
WILL CONT WITH DRY FCST OVR WEEKEND AS UPR LOW PASSES TO N ALLOWING             
DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INT FROM W AND LLVL WINDS VEER INTO W-NW WITH               
TIME.                                                                           
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1256 AM CDT                                                                     
05Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS FCST AREA               
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF TERMINALS...ROUGHLY KDBQ...KJOT...KVPZ.                
LLVL WINDS FAIRLY WEAK IN DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH FRONT               
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS FCST AREA OVRNGT.             
SFC DWPTS IN LOWER 60S IN WARM SECTOR...WITH SVRL AWOS SITES SOUTH              
OF THE WARMFRONT REPORTING MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/BR. EXPECT               
TERMINAL SITES TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH 3-5SM LIKELY AS FRONT LIFTS            
NORTH OVRNGT...THOUGH URBAN INFLUENCE EXPECTED TO KEEP KMDW/KORD                
VFR. VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS WITHING A COUPLE            
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SOME SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED            
WITH WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVCTN AND OCNL SHEARED S/WVS THRU THE TAF                 
PERIOD. DIRUNAL CU ALSO XPCTD WITH BASES IN 5-6KFT RANGE.                       
WINDS NORTH OF FRONT ESE 110-130 DEG...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE            
SOUTH TOWARD 160-170 DEG AS FRONT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING. WEAK                
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE XPCTD TO DVLP THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST            
OF AIRPORTS AND NOT AFFECT KORD/KMDW DIRECTLY.                                  
SHOULD NOTE THAT BOTH WRF AND RUC HINT AT MINIMAL CONVECTIVE                    
POTENTIAL TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS IN CENTRAL FCST AREA                 
INDICATE SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG AND LITTLE/NO CIN LATE                    
MORNING/AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF FCST AREA              
NO WELL DEFINED LLVL FOCUS FOR DVLPMNT. WHILE CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED            
RW/TRW DVLPG SOMEWHERE IN VCNTY TODAY...POINT PROBABILITY FAR TOO               
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.                                                     
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
306 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE            
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY               
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS                
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER             
MIDWEST RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS               
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALSO PULL RELATIVELY WARM AIR NORTHWARD                
OVER THE LAKE...WHICH WILL TEND TO PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER               
THE COLDER LAKE WATER AND LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT                
RANGE OR SO.                                                                    
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A                 
SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN RCKYS/NRN                  
PLAINS NEXT SVRL DAYS. CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO            
SLOW APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                
SYSTEM...WHICH MAY NOT MOVE TO LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.                 
VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO DIFFERS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD               
FRONT SAGS FROM CANADA OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IN THURSDAY NIGHT            
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...BUT SOME GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN             
A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. HAVE BROUGHT WINDS AROUND ON NORTHERN LAKE            
MICHIGAN BASED ON THIS THINKING AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFOS                  
AROUND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
705 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...CONVECTION BREAKING OUT EVEN FASTER THAN THOUGHT. HAVE                
UPDATED FCST TO REFLECT SCATTERED SHRA GETTING UP TO AT LEAST                   
HIGHWAY 30 BY 15Z. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME CELLS ARE                  
GETTING CLOSE TO PRODUCING LIGHTNING SO HAVE MOVED FORWARD THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDER AS WELL.     ...08...                                    
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/...                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL                  
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES                   
THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
STALLED FRONT HAS YET TO SHOW ANY MOVEMENT NORTH FROM MISSOURI.                 
HOWEVER...WEAK WAA HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS              
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. 06Z RUC SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE                   
ADVECTING NORTH DURING THE DAY...SO MORE PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK             
OUT DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH             
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL CONVECTION GOING.                
...08...                                                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
WHILE THE STORY HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE                      
EXTENDED...IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE READ SLOWER.  00Z MODELS               
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND ON SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER                
LOWS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.  THE MODEL SPREAD NOW IS FAVORING IN THE                
SLOWER GFS...WHICH KEEPS US IN THE MOISTURE LONGER AS THE SURFACE               
FRONT LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL HAVE TWO                    
MAJOR AFFECTS ON THE FORECAST...ONE WE WILL NEED TO DECREASE POP                
COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN               
FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER SCATTERED OR                      
ISOLATED.  NEXT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR QUITE                   
WET...BUT WILL MAKE SOME BABY STEPS TONIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS TO              
CHANCE RANGE THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POPS FRIDAY.  SHOULD THIS             
MODEL TREND CONTINUE...WE NEED MUCH HIGHER POPS...AND MAY NEED TO               
LINGER THINGS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN                   
SEVERAL LONG DURATION UPPER LOWS IN THE PLAINS BRING EXTENSIVE RAINS            
TO LOCATIONS WEST OF OUR CWA...AND THIS COULD BE A PATTERN THAT                 
BRINGS SIMILAR CONDITIONS HERE...BUT AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL TELL.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT STILL               
GENERALLY REFLECTS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS            
IN THE 60S.  ...ERVIN...                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BETTER WAA STILL REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER...THE WAA               
THAT IS OCCURRING IS ALLOWING SOME NOCTURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST               
SOUTH OF THE KBRL AREA. STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TO               
SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN            
THE 3-4KFT AGL LAYER. CIGS TO EVENTUALLY BE AROUND 4KFT AGL BUT                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME 3KFT CIGS DEVELOP. OVERALL CURRENTLY             
DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TSRA                     
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.         ...08...                                     
&&                                                                              
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/ERVIN                                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
258 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL                  
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES                   
THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
STALLED FRONT HAS YET TO SHOW ANY MOVEMENT NORTH FROM MISSOURI.                 
HOWEVER...WEAK WAA HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS              
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. 06Z RUC SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE                   
ADVECTING NORTH DURING THE DAY...SO MORE PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK             
OUT DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH             
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL CONVECTION GOING.                
...08...                                                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
WHILE THE STORY HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE                      
EXTENDED...IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE READ SLOWER.  00Z MODELS               
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND ON SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER                
LOWS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.  THE MODEL SPREAD NOW IS FAVORING IN THE                
SLOWER GFS...WHICH KEEPS US IN THE MOISTURE LONGER AS THE SURFACE               
FRONT LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL HAVE TWO                    
MAJOR AFFECTS ON THE FORECAST...ONE WE WILL NEED TO DECREASE POP                
COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN               
FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER SCATTERED OR                      
ISOLATED.  NEXT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR QUITE                   
WET...BUT WILL MAKE SOME BABY STEPS TONIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS TO              
CHANCE RANGE THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POPS FRIDAY.  SHOULD THIS             
MODEL TREND CONTINUE...WE NEED MUCH HIGHER POPS...AND MAY NEED TO               
LINGER THINGS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN                   
SEVERAL LONG DURATION UPPER LOWS IN THE PLAINS BRING EXTENSIVE RAINS            
TO LOCATIONS WEST OF OUR CWA...AND THIS COULD BE A PATTERN THAT                 
BRINGS SIMILAR CONDITIONS HERE...BUT AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL TELL.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT STILL               
GENERALLY REFLECTS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS            
IN THE 60S.  ...ERVIN...                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BETTER WAA STILL REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER...THE WAA               
THAT IS OCCURRING IS ALLOWING SOME NOCTURNAL SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST               
SOUTH OF THE KBRL AREA. STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TO               
SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN            
THE 3-4KFT AGL LAYER. CIGS TO EVENTUALLY BE AROUND 4KFT AGL BUT                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME 3KFT CIGS DEVELOP. OVERALL CURRENTLY             
DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TSRA                     
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.         ...08...                                     
&&                                                                              
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/ERVIN                                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
855 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 0245Z THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY CONFINED TO AREAS JUST NORTH OF                
OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG AN OUTFLOW               
BOUNDARY. 02Z RUC HAS A BULLSEYE OF 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER                
THE SMALL CONVECTIVE BLOB JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH HAS PRODUCED                  
WIDESPREAD FLOODING.                                                            
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE HAVE USED THE DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WHICH                  
SHOWS A 15 MPH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS               
A RESULT HAVE UPPED THE POPS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES TO                    
CATEGORICAL...TAPERING TO CHANCE AS ONE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE                   
BOUNDARY. THIS MATCHES BEAUTIFULLY WITH LBF GRIDS.                              
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN                
1/2 OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TO CLOUDY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                  
INCREASES ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. RUC FORECASTS SHOW NO FOG                     
FORMATION AT PRESENT TIME SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT.                                  
WILL WATCH FOR TRENDS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS AND ADJUST AS NEED               
BE THE REST OF THE EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TSRA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE KGLD AIRPORT AND REACH THE KMCK                 
AIRPORT AROUND 06Z. WILL AMEND THE KMCK TAF ACCORDINGLY. STILL                  
EXPECT STRATUS AT BOTH SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY                    
HANDLED WELL IN TAFS...MAY NEED TO LOWER CIGS BUT FOR NOW ITS A                 
GOOD START.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1036 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS WITH               
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 KNOTS RANGE NEARSHORE AND                 
APPROACHING 30 KNOTS IN THE OUTER ZONES. OFFSHORE REPORTS CONCUR                
WITH SEA RIM OBSERVATION SUSTAINED AT 25 KNOTS...BUOY 42035                     
SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AND SEAS RISING TO 6 FEET...AND               
AN OIL RIG REPORT FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND INDICATING                 
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. WILL ISSUE SMALL                  
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                  
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MODELS HAVING LITTLE GRASP OF               
CURRENT SITUATION THUS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. VERY                   
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH 00Z KLCH               
SOUNDING SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A PWAT OF 1.77                  
INCHES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE.  OUR              
EASTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE               
RAINFALL BUT IN CONTRAST ALL ACTIVITY OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS HAS                
DISSIPATED. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS                    
EXISTS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE                    
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHER SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS              
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE 18Z RUN AND SHOWS A              
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BOMB MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEST-CENTRAL                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM KEEPS MOST                 
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND RUC KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA DRY.                  
NONE OF THE MODELS SEEMS REALISTIC AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT                       
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS WILL DISREGARD SHORT TERM MODELS               
AND BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
LOUISIANA ZONES AS OFFSHORE COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
MOVES INLAND...AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE ALSO               
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST AND CATEGORICAL EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL              
WATERS.                                                                         
WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE                      
ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW EXPECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS                
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO               
ACCOUNT. HAVE ALSO RAISED WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT AND HAVE HOISTED EXERCISE               
CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE WESTERN OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL            
WATERSPOUTS OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS                    
AND ANALYSIS INDICATES ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE                   
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW.                                                   
FINALLY...HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY HAVE MAINLY BEEN OFFSHORE WITH                   
RADAR ESTIMATING WELL OVER 10 INCHES FALLING IN THE NORTHERN GULF.              
HOWEVER WITH CONSIDERABLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT FEW                 
DAYS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY                 
OVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOREGO ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET                      
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE SITUATION.                                      
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT. THANKS TO WFO LIX FOR                     
COORDINATION!                                                                   
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING ERN TX                 
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HI PRES REMAINS THE STORY KEEPING                  
SERLY LO-LVL FLOW IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. REGIONAL              
88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RW AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN                    
PORTION OF THE AREA ATTM WITH ANOTHER LARGE BATCH OF RAIN WITH                  
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE GULF AND APPROACHING THE COASTLINE.                   
THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO BE RAIN...ESPECIALLY               
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AREA OF RAIN/TRW ROTATING OVER THE NWRN GULF              
WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AGREE IN                  
THINKING WITH HGX THAT HOPEFULLY SUNSET WILL BRING AN END TO SOME               
OF THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS SO HIGH ATTM THAT I                  
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE                    
AREA...40 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER.                                            
HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY               
AS LO/SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE                  
AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH                     
MOISTURE VALUES (MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SATURATION AND PWAT VALUES           
NEAR 2 INCHES) SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS RW/TRW.                  
GFS/NAM PROG THESE FEATURES TO EITHER STALL OVER OR MOVE JUST EAST              
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR                
THEN. IF THIS TREND PLAYS OUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE SOME               
THOUGHT TO GOING WITH A FLOOD WATCH...HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON               
SUCH A CALL ATTM AS ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO               
BY MORE THAN DRY ENOUGH TO TAKE THE RAIN WE`VE GOTTEN THE LAST DAY              
OR SO.                                                                          
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPR-LVL SYSTEM              
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE                   
REGION ON WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK                     
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE                         
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON.                                                     
AVIATION...INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY CONTINUING THIS EVENING AND                 
OVERNIGHT. VISBY AND CEILING WILL BE BELOW 3000FT DURING PERIODS OF             
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE PRODOMINENT AFTER MIDNIGHT              
THRU SUNRISE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  68  82  70  82 /  60  60  40  50                                          
KBPT  68  82  71  84 /  40  60  40  50                                          
KAEX  68  82  69  82 /  60  60  40  50                                          
KLFT  69  83  69  83 /  60  60  40  50                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:           
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20                  
     NM...AND WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                        
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
950 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MODELS HAVING LITTLE GRASP OF               
CURRENT SITUATION THUS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. VERY                   
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH 00Z KLCH               
SOUNDING SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A PWAT OF 1.77                  
INCHES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE.  OUR              
EASTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE               
RAINFALL BUT IN CONTRAST ALL ACTIVITY OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS HAS                
DISSIPATED. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS                    
EXISTS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE                    
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHER SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS              
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE 18Z RUN AND SHOWS A              
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BOMB MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEST-CENTRAL                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM KEEPS MOST                 
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND RUC KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA DRY.                  
NONE OF THE MODELS SEEMS REALISTIC AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT                       
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS WILL DISREGARD SHORT TERM MODELS               
AND BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
LOUISIANA ZONES AS OFFSHORE COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
MOVES INLAND...AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE ALSO               
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST AND CATEGORICAL EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL              
WATERS.                                                                         
WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE                      
ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW EXPECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS                
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO               
ACCOUNT. HAVE ALSO RAISED WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT AND HAVE HOISTED EXERCISE               
CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE WESTERN OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL            
WATERSPOUTS OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS                    
AND ANALYSIS INDICATES ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE                   
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW.                                                   
FINALLY...HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY HAVE MAINLY BEEN OFFSHORE WITH                   
RADAR ESTIMATING WELL OVER 10 INCHES FALLING IN THE NORTHERN GULF.              
HOWEVER WITH CONSIDERABLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT FEW                 
DAYS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY                 
OVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOREGO ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET                      
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE SITUATION.                                      
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT. THANKS TO WFO LIX FOR                     
COORDINATION!                                                                   
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING ERN TX                 
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HI PRES REMAINS THE STORY KEEPING                  
SERLY LO-LVL FLOW IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. REGIONAL              
88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RW AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN                    
PORTION OF THE AREA ATTM WITH ANOTHER LARGE BATCH OF RAIN WITH                  
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE GULF AND APPROACHING THE COASTLINE.                   
THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO BE RAIN...ESPECIALLY               
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AREA OF RAIN/TRW ROTATING OVER THE NWRN GULF              
WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AGREE IN                  
THINKING WITH HGX THAT HOPEFULLY SUNSET WILL BRING AN END TO SOME               
OF THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS SO HIGH ATTM THAT I                  
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE                    
AREA...40 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER.                                            
HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY               
AS LO/SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE                  
AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH                     
MOISTURE VALUES (MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SATURATION AND PWAT VALUES           
NEAR 2 INCHES) SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS RW/TRW.                  
GFS/NAM PROG THESE FEATURES TO EITHER STALL OVER OR MOVE JUST EAST              
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR                
THEN. IF THIS TREND PLAYS OUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE SOME               
THOUGHT TO GOING WITH A FLOOD WATCH...HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON               
SUCH A CALL ATTM AS ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO               
BY MORE THAN DRY ENOUGH TO TAKE THE RAIN WE`VE GOTTEN THE LAST DAY              
OR SO.                                                                          
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPR-LVL SYSTEM              
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE                   
REGION ON WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK                     
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE                         
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON.                                                     
AVIATION...INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY CONTINUING THIS EVENING AND                 
OVERNIGHT. VISBY AND CEILING WILL BE BELOW 3000FT DURING PERIODS OF             
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE PRODOMINENT AFTER MIDNIGHT              
THRU SUNRISE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  68  82  70  82 /  60  60  40  50                                          
KBPT  68  82  71  84 /  40  60  40  50                                          
KAEX  68  82  69  82 /  60  60  40  50                                          
KLFT  69  83  69  83 /  60  60  40  50                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION GMZ470.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1110 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE STATE WHILE PULLING A COLD                  
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN                   
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SOME CLEARING MAINLY ACROSS THE                    
WESTERN ZONES WITH LOW STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING OVER THE EASTERN                  
ZONES ATTM. COLD POOL ALOFT BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH SURFACE                  
HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CAUSING FEW SHOWERS TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS ZONE 1 ATTM. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES                
INCREASING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES                 
THROUGH 18Z THEN DECREASING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREAFTER.                
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.                    
PREVIOUS GRID FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED                  
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
LOW PRES WELL E OF THE FA BY 12Z TUE AND WILL START THE DAY W/                  
SOME SC SPCLY UP N AND A RATHER BRISK NW WND BUT SHOULD SEE CONDS               
IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS HGH PRES RDG RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE FA.                
HGH PRES PROGGED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU TUE NGT AND INTO WED                 
AND THEN THINGS ARE A BIT LESS CLEAR...GFS CONTS TO BRING A BACK                
DOOR FRONT INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WED AFT WHILE THE NAM HOLDS              
IT UP UNTIL WED NGT. FOR NOW...PER THESE CONTG MODEL DIFFS...HELD               
THE SAME COURSE W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR WED AND BEYOND.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
WE FOLLOWED HPC SET OF GUIDE THIS SECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO                    
MAINTAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR VCNTY AND A CHANCE OF SHWRS.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS                   
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.                        
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS TUE INTO WED THEN                                         
LOW CONFIDENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD PER CONTG MODEL DIFFS                
W/ THE TIMING STRENGTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND OTHER PSBL WAVES               
OF LOW PRES THAT MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND AFFECT OUR REGION               
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH FRI.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: FOR THE CWF HAVE ADJUSTED WIND FIELD DOWN AS PER LATEST              
OBERSEVATIONS. HAVE USED THE RUC MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING             
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD THE BEST. ADJUSTEMNTS MADE TO THE FIRST AND              
BEGINNING OF THE SECOND PERIOD ON THE UPDATE.                                   
SHORT TERM: NO MAJOR HEADLINES ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM ATTM.              
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS                                                 
SHORT TERM...KHW                                                                
LONG TERM...STUREY                                                              
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS                                                  
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS/KHW                                                
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION GENERALLY ON WANE OVER CWFA PER RADAR               
LOOP AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS OR IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL KEEP IN               
ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA OVERNIGHT FOR GOG-ONT COUNTIES AND OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND CONVERGENCE               
ALONG WEAK SFC TROF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO END OVER REST             
OF WEST HALF OF UPR MI WITH LACK OF FORCING OVERNIGHT AND LOSS OF SB            
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/WED)...                                                    
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE.                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF OVER THE                 
ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE STATES N TO MI.             
A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS OVER ERN UPPER MI. THIS WAVE PRODUCED A               
FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA AND ACROSS NRN LAKE                 
MICHIGAN TODAY. TO THE W...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU MN            
HAS PROBABLY PROVIDED SOME ASSISTANCE TO SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING             
OVER WRN UPPER MI WHERE MLCAPES ARE NEARING 1000J/KG. VIS SATELLITE             
IMAGERY INDICATES ERN FCST AREA REMAINS MORE STABLE DUE TO FLOW OFF             
LAKE MICHIGAN AS CU FIELD HAS SET UP W OF A LINE FROM SHOT POINT TO             
MENOMINEE. DEEP SRLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE N INTO THE                
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT                 
KMPX/KGRB WAS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES (JUST OVER 200PCT OF NORMAL) AT             
12Z.                                                                            
SHARP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW                  
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA/SD BY LATE WED AFTN. SO...PROGRESSION OF                 
PATTERN WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL...LEAVING UPPER MI IN DEEP LAYERED SSW             
FLOW JUST W OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS. PINNING DOWN WHEN AND WHERE             
PCPN WILL OCCUR IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON TIMING/LOCATION            
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. BASED ON AFTN WATER VAPOR                      
IMAGERY...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM HEADED             
FOR UPPER MI TONIGHT...AND WITH NO WAA OCCURRING...THERE WILL BE NO             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT (WAA/ISENTROPIC ZONE WILL             
BE WELL N OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SO...ONCE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS               
EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT.               
WILL THUS CARRY CHC POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI               
AND THEN GO DRY OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS             
LIMITS TEMP FALL. MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD FALL            
NO LWR THAN THE LWR 60S.                                                        
WED SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A            
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OR NEAR WRN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...              
BUILDING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR ANY             
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. GFS LOWERS MIXED LAYER DWPTS WED COMPARED TO             
TODAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. AS RESULT...MLCAPE            
RISES NO HIGHER THAN 300-400J/KG. IF DWPTS FALL TOWARD WHAT THE GFS             
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR SFC DWPTS...SBCAPE WILL BE EVEN LOWER.               
NAM IS MORE MOIST AS IT USUALLY IS...BUT ITS MIXED LAYER DWPTS                  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S MAY BE MORE REASONABLE BASED ON READINGS             
UPSTREAM TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPE RISING POTENTIALLY TO NEAR               
1000J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF NO MORE THAN 20-25KT...DO NOT                
ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS. WILL CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE AFTN HRS              
AGAIN ONLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE THERE WON`T BE ANY                 
MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BY MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING             
OF THE MARINE LAYER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WED...               
SUGGESTING LAKE BREEZES COULD DEVELOP W NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE               
RUC13 INDICATES. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE              
BREEZE COULD ALSO DEVELOP E OF MARQUETTE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE            
OVER THE NE FCST AREA.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM. (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                
AS WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER            
THE DAKOTAS AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A WEAK FRONTAL                         
BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS THE EXTREME                 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ACTING AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS            
FIGURED FROM THE SURFACE LOW.  STILL...IT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER               
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING...PROGRESSING OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST              
BY 00Z SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  FURTHER OUT IN THE LAND OF                 
EXTENDED FORECASTING...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY                   
PREFERRED.  THE 21Z NAM WAS THROWN OUT OF THE MIX SINCE IS WAS                  
QUICKER TO BRING THINGS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF             
ACTUALLY SLOWED DOWN.  WHEN COMPARING THE ECMWF TO THE GFS...HAVING             
THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST BY 00Z SUNDAY MAY STILL BE TOO                  
QUICK...WITH THE 12Z GFS SEEMING TO BE STILL ABOUT 9 HOURS QUICKER              
THAN THE PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF.                                                   
AS FOR CHANGES TO OUR ONGOING FORECAST...INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES             
FOR THURSDAY SLIGHTLY...MOVING AWAY FROM THE QUICKER NAM SOLUTION.              
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...THE MENTION OF            
FOG MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST                      
PERIOD...BUT WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AS OF YET.  FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WOULD HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY 5            
DEGREES PER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT INSTEAD TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD                
APPROACH FOR THE TIME BEING...BLENDING WITH THE CURRENT ONGOING                 
FORECAST.  HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY               
MORNING LOWS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.           
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES              
REGION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TAKE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR                 
MAYBE EVEN SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  BOTH              
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT              
LEAST MONDAY...WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DIG EVEN FURTHER                          
SOUTH...PRODUCING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY               
18Z MONDAY.  SO...NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED OVER            
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE LOW PRES ALONG ND/MN BORDER JUST MEANDERS SLOWLY             
TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ON THE E              
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER OBSERVING                  
PLATFORMS WHERE 20-25KT WINDS WILL BE COMMON. FARTHER DOWN IN THE               
STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BTWN 10-15KT AT THE             
BUOY PLATFORMS. OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...AS IS TYPICAL IN SRLY             
WIND REGIMES OVER A VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL AGAIN                 
REMAIN MORE BACKED TO AN E OR NE DIRECTION NEAR THE MN SHORELINE.               
OTHERWISE...LIGHTER SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL THAN OVER THE E HALF             
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL             
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER            
THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST THU            
EVENING ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE                
CHILLY MARINE LAYER UNDER SHARP INVERSION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 00Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO                  
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN              
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CLOUD COVER AND            
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JV                                                                     
SHORT TERM/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                     
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
726 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/WED)...                                                    
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE.                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF OVER THE                 
ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE STATES N TO MI.             
A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS OVER ERN UPPER MI. THIS WAVE PRODUCED A               
FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA AND ACROSS NRN LAKE                 
MICHIGAN TODAY. TO THE W...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU MN            
HAS PROBABLY PROVIDED SOME ASSISTANCE TO SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING             
OVER WRN UPPER MI WHERE MLCAPES ARE NEARING 1000J/KG. VIS SATELLITE             
IMAGERY INDICATES ERN FCST AREA REMAINS MORE STABLE DUE TO FLOW OFF             
LAKE MICHIGAN AS CU FIELD HAS SET UP W OF A LINE FROM SHOT POINT TO             
MENOMINEE. DEEP SRLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE N INTO THE                
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT                 
KMPX/KGRB WAS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES (JUST OVER 200PCT OF NORMAL) AT             
12Z.                                                                            
SHARP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW                  
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA/SD BY LATE WED AFTN. SO...PROGRESSION OF                 
PATTERN WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL...LEAVING UPPER MI IN DEEP LAYERED SSW             
FLOW JUST W OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS. PINNING DOWN WHEN AND WHERE             
PCPN WILL OCCUR IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON TIMING/LOCATION            
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. BASED ON AFTN WATER VAPOR                      
IMAGERY...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM HEADED             
FOR UPPER MI TONIGHT...AND WITH NO WAA OCCURRING...THERE WILL BE NO             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT (WAA/ISENTROPIC ZONE WILL             
BE WELL N OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SO...ONCE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS               
EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT.               
WILL THUS CARRY CHC POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI               
AND THEN GO DRY OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS             
LIMITS TEMP FALL. MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD FALL            
NO LWR THAN THE LWR 60S.                                                        
WED SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A            
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OR NEAR WRN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...              
BUILDING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR ANY             
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. GFS LOWERS MIXED LAYER DWPTS WED COMPARED TO             
TODAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. AS RESULT...MLCAPE            
RISES NO HIGHER THAN 300-400J/KG. IF DWPTS FALL TOWARD WHAT THE GFS             
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR SFC DWPTS...SBCAPE WILL BE EVEN LOWER.               
NAM IS MORE MOIST AS IT USUALLY IS...BUT ITS MIXED LAYER DWPTS                  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S MAY BE MORE REASONABLE BASED ON READINGS             
UPSTREAM TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPE RISING POTENTIALLY TO NEAR               
1000J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF NO MORE THAN 20-25KT...DO NOT                
ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS. WILL CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE AFTN HRS              
AGAIN ONLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE THERE WON`T BE ANY                 
MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BY MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING             
OF THE MARINE LAYER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WED...               
SUGGESTING LAKE BREEZES COULD DEVELOP W NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE               
RUC13 INDICATES. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE              
BREEZE COULD ALSO DEVELOP E OF MARQUETTE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE            
OVER THE NE FCST AREA.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM. (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                
AS WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER            
THE DAKOTAS AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A WEAK FRONTAL                         
BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS THE EXTREME                 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ACTING AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS            
FIGURED FROM THE SURFACE LOW.  STILL...IT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER               
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING...PROGRESSING OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST              
BY 00Z SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  FURTHER OUT IN THE LAND OF                 
EXTENDED FORECASTING...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY                   
PREFERRED.  THE 21Z NAM WAS THROWN OUT OF THE MIX SINCE IS WAS                  
QUICKER TO BRING THINGS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF             
ACTUALLY SLOWED DOWN.  WHEN COMPARING THE ECMWF TO THE GFS...HAVING             
THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST BY 00Z SUNDAY MAY STILL BE TOO                  
QUICK...WITH THE 12Z GFS SEEMING TO BE STILL ABOUT 9 HOURS QUICKER              
THAN THE PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF.                                                   
AS FOR CHANGES TO OUR ONGOING FORECAST...INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES             
FOR THURSDAY SLIGHTLY...MOVING AWAY FROM THE QUICKER NAM SOLUTION.              
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...THE MENTION OF            
FOG MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST                      
PERIOD...BUT WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AS OF YET.  FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WOULD HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY 5            
DEGREES PER HPC GUIDANCE...BUT INSTEAD TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD                
APPROACH FOR THE TIME BEING...BLENDING WITH THE CURRENT ONGOING                 
FORECAST.  HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY               
MORNING LOWS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.           
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES              
REGION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TAKE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR                 
MAYBE EVEN SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  BOTH              
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT              
LEAST MONDAY...WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DIG EVEN FURTHER                          
SOUTH...PRODUCING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY               
18Z MONDAY.  SO...NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED OVER            
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE LOW PRES ALONG ND/MN BORDER JUST MEANDERS SLOWLY             
TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ON THE E              
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER OBSERVING                  
PLATFORMS WHERE 20-25KT WINDS WILL BE COMMON. FARTHER DOWN IN THE               
STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BTWN 10-15KT AT THE             
BUOY PLATFORMS. OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...AS IS TYPICAL IN SRLY             
WIND REGIMES OVER A VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL AGAIN                 
REMAIN MORE BACKED TO AN E OR NE DIRECTION NEAR THE MN SHORELINE.               
OTHERWISE...LIGHTER SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL THAN OVER THE E HALF             
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL             
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER            
THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST THU            
EVENING ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE                
CHILLY MARINE LAYER UNDER SHARP INVERSION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 00Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO                  
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN              
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CLOUD COVER AND            
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                     
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)...                                                     
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER              
MI. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH FCST IS TIMING/COVERAGE OF PCPN AND THE                 
CHANCE OF THUNDER. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TAF SITES...BUT              
INCLUDED CB CLOUD TYPE TO REFLECT CONVECTION. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO              
REFLECT THE SCATTERED TYPE OF PCPN. EXPECT PCPN TO DISSIPATE WITH               
COOLING TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN WILL             
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1105 AM)...                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES               
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE STATES N TO MI. A VERY              
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS OVER NE WI/CNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...WAVE HAS ONLY            
PRODUCED SOME -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA AND JUST E OF            
THERE. TO THE W...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU MN WAS                 
PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...MAINLY W OF KDLH...BUT SOME SHRA             
HAVE DEVELOPED EWD TOWARD THE KEWEENAW RECENTLY.                                
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NE WI IS HEADED MORE ERLY AROUND RIDGE AXIS            
WHILE SHORTWAVE IN MN IS HEADING MORE NRLY. SO...IT DOES NOT APPEAR             
ANY SHORTWAVES WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN TO                  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. SHORTWAVES WILL BE CLOSE              
ENOUGH THOUGH TO AID SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTN AND              
POSSIBLY OVER THE SE FCST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...               
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS HEATING CONTINUES...LEADING TO THE                    
POTENTIAL OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT THERE ARE NO WELL-DEFINED                      
BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE A STRONG FOCUS. MODIFIED KGRB SOUNDING FOR SFC            
T/TD OF 80/58F YIELDS SBCAPE OF ABOUT 400J/KG WHILE 80/60F YIELDS               
NEARLY 800J/KG. WITH LIMITED SBCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE                 
ORDER OF 20-25KT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN.                  
DECENT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE ERN FCST AREA                
STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER             
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA WITH SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE SE OVER               
THE NEXT FEW HRS. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DRY FCST THERE.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                              
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE FROM EASTERN MANITOBA             
TO WESTERN QUEBEC...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TO            
THE WEST A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN                     
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK              
SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                
MINNESOTA... CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1026MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP            
LOW OVER MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
THROUGH THIS LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST            
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALSO A COLD FRONT LINKS THE                
MANITOBA LOW WITH THE EASTERN COLORADO LOW. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER              
IS BUILDING OVER THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS              
ARE FIRING NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONTAL.                
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WHILE THE LOW OVER                 
SASKATCHEWAN DIGS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES              
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHILE THE REST               
MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST               
AND INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE            
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST                  
COAST....WHILE THE WEST END OF THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT. THE                   
SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                    
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW              
AROUND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL DRAW WARM GULF MOISTURE INTO THE THE            
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCAPE                
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THEREFORE...               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS            
AND SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. IN THE AREA OF GREATEST             
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-41 FROM            
MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONTANA WILL STAY MAINLY OVER THE                    
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BROAD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO                   
BLANKET THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME             
STAGNANT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY              
FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND            
OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MORE WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL              
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS            
SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE Q-VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD            
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE             
ALOFT. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...AND                    
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM             
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A                      
MENTION GOING...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE             
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                            
ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS STARTS TO HOLD THE SURFACE LOW WEST OVER                 
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE THE NAM/GEM/WRF FAVOR A CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA POSITION. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISED SOLUTION. MODELS                 
FAVOR THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO WILL FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESS                  
SOLUTIONS. THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE ATLANTIC              
COAST WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE THE FORECAST                 
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE MONTANA LOW WILL SPIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.             
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SAIL ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL                 
MINNESOTA WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE PLAINS COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE             
EASTERN KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA FEEDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH               
DAKOTA WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA               
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A              
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST             
THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM.                                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR KBIS...WITH A              
NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND              
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHWEST TO THE            
NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH               
DAKOTA. THE CANADIAN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE OF MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING A               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW BACKS WEST...THE                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG             
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ESPECIALLY COUPLED               
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE             
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL LOW TO TREK EAST TO NEAR KJMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINE              
UP WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ALLOWING THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE            
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE CANADIAN FRONT SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN               
WEAK AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK FOR               
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE A LOW PRES JUST S OF LAKE WINNIPEG THIS MORNING              
MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. WINDS OVER THE LK             
TDAY WL RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATION TDAY AFT MOSTLY DECOUPLED              
NOCTURNAL LLJ WEAKENS. LLJ TNGT WL NOT BE AS STRG WITH LACK OF PRES             
FALL CENTER ACRS ONTARIO. OTRW...FOLLOWED CNDN MODEL PER NCEP                   
PREFERENCE FOR WINDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MODEL IS QUITE             
A BIT SLOWER TO PUSH SFC LO E THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.              
CNDN SOLN PROMISES A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...SO WINDS WL BE ON THE LGT             
SIDE AND RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE DAY. FOG SHOULD               
BECOME AN ISSUE TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER               
THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LYR UNDER SHARP INVRN.                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
MARINE...KC                                                                     
AVIATION...MRC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA...EXPECTED              
TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CU DEVELOPMENT              
WILL LEAD TO SCT CONDITIONS AROUND TVC AND PLN...BUT WARM ADVECTION             
CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF BKN AT APN. DIURNAL CU WILL               
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET...BUT MOISTURE STREAMING NW WILL CONTINUE TO                
PRODUCE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO             
LOWER VISBYS AND HAZE TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND TVC AND PLN EARLY                   
TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT TO APN AND DECIDED TO                
LEAVE LOWER VISBYS OUT OF TAFS. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT ANY LOWER                 
VISBYS TO MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING AND CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR            
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                 
MPC/SSK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT TUE                                             
LOW AND MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE FLUX WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN LAKES ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER                  
WESTERN NEW YORK...AS EVIDENT BY BROKEN MID LEVEL CU/ALTOCU DECK                
WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCAL PWAT JUMPING FROM 0.36              
INCHES ON LAST NIGHTS 00Z SOUNDING TO 1.02 INCHES WITH THIS MORNINGS            
RELEASE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...GFS/NAM-WRF MODEL GUIDANCE            
OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...WITH OBSERVED UPPER 40 TO LOW 50               
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL PROGS. FORECAST CONCERNS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE                     
POTENTIAL AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON INCREASING MOISTURE.                      
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON AS FAR AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION            
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW 950MB WINDS RAMPING UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS SEVERELY                
LIMITING LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...WILL IGNORE OVER                  
ZEALOUS NAM-WRF/GFS SURFACE INSTABILITY PROGS SHOWING 1500+ J/KG                
CAPE (PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF OVER MOISTENING...WITH THESE MODELS               
SUGGESTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW 60S BY LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON). TAKING MORE CONSERVATIVE LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS FOR THE            
AFTERNOON (LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THIS RANGE)            
INDICATES MEAN LAYER CAPE OF ONLY 100 J/KG OR SO. THIS SHOULD BE                
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH ANY SUBTLE LAKE INDUCED WIND            
CHANGE OR ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALS...TO            
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...STILL                  
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS                  
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPS SCOUR SOME OF THIS MORNINGS CLOUD DECK.             
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES                     
WARRANTED.                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/NEARSHORES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 725 AM                                                    
OW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS              
MORNING...THOUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH BASES                 
AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE LOWEST. SHOULD SEE THESE ON THE WANE BY LATE               
MORNING...THOUGH WITH MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION AND WARM                 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CU/STRATOCU DECK WILL FILL IN BY EARLY                 
AFTERNOON. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM              
ALSO EXISTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY                   
EVENING...THOUGH POSSIBILITIES FAR TOO SMALL TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN             
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST A BIT BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY                
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT THEIR HIGHEST....BEFORE SLACKENING ONCE AGAIN             
AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT                
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT                
WITH MIST/LIGHT FOG...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS                
MORNING. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH            
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HIGH DEW POINTS WILL END UP...HAVE              
KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE...THOUGH COULD EASILY BE MVFR.                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...A SEEMINGLY BROKEN RECORD FORECAST APPEARS ON TAP FOR              
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY HEADING INTO THE             
WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH                    
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES                 
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ARE JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET EACH                  
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING/COVERAGE OF ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR              
CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ELONGATED               
BUT FAIRLY WEAK (1024MB) SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES             
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE                
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION REGIME.             
ALOFT...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PER EVENING WATER VAPOR PICS                
NOTED DIVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO...WITH HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING ONTO               
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THIS                  
REGION...BUT AIDING IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER MUCH OF THE                 
EASTERN CONUS AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. IT IS THESE TWO                   
FEATURES (THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS            
THE REGION) THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.                                                     
FOR TODAY...ONGOING WARM ADVECTION THIS MORNING (H85 TEMPS ALREADY              
AT +10C PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW              
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED OFF TO THE EAST...AND BROAD                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA. INITIAL SHOT OF 850-700 MB                  
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE                
AN EXPANDING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS LIKELY               
TO BE SHORT LIVED (BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY CU FIELD THIS                       
AFTERNOON)...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO IT. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO                
JUMP TO +14C BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN                     
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS THIS PAST EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING                
TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE BY                
AFTERNOON AS IT SIMPLY MIXES NORTH TO REFOCUS ACROSS ONTARIO IN                 
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY LEAVE THE AREA IN WHAT WILL BECOME A VERY                 
BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.                 
GOOD INSOLATION AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT              
CONVECTIVE MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.                
WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS ALSO OCCURRING...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN              
TO PONDER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NAM/GFS APPEAR TO                   
STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING              
SPURIOUSLY HIGH VALUES OF CAPE (1500+ J/KG). A MORE LIKELY                      
SCENARIO FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING OUT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR              
YIELDS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S...WHICH STILL DOES                   
YIELD SOME MLCAPE (300-500 J/KG OR SO). WITH REGION FALLING ON THE              
WESTERN FRINGE OF STILL BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CAPPING                    
INVERSION NOT OVERLY STRONG...APPEARS EXPECTED CAPE MAY STILL BE                
SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW STORMS. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE                 
LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM...AS LAKE BREEZES LOOK TO REMAIN                    
MOSTLY SUPPRESSED WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW (15-20 KNOTS              
OR SO)...THOUGH ANY WEAK TURNING OF THE WINDS OFF THE LAKES OR                  
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (SUCH AS THAT WHICH OFTEN OCCURS OVER THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. GIVEN                    
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM AND INSTABILITY...GOING 20 POP                
LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WILL SIMPLY CHANGE WORDING TO `ISOLATED`.                   
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST OF A FEW WARM AND RATHER HUMID NIGHTS                 
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UP AND NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL VERY                 
MUCH. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON...                  
SHOULD SEE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...AND COULD EVEN SEE A BIT                
OF LIGHT FOG WITH AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E                   
RIDGE. HAVE ALSO HELD ONTO EARLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTION WITH                     
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WHICH DEVELOPS TODAY TO HANG ON FOR A FEW                
HOURS AFTER SUNSET PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT              
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                                 
FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARD TO            
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REPEAT ITSELF...THOUGH WITH SUBTLE CHANGES            
TO THE OVERALL SETUP. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH H5                 
HEIGHTS PROGGED BETTER THAN 582 DM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE                 
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...WITH H85 TEMPS                
CLIMBING EVEN A BIT HIGHER (+15C ON THE GFS/+16C ON THE ECMWF) AND              
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES              
WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND EVEN UPPER 80S PER NOMOGRAMS. THIS            
COUPLED WITH A TOUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS (PERHAPS NEAR 60) SHOULD                 
YIELD MLCAPES PERHAPS APPROACHING 800 J/KG...THOUGH AGAIN THE                   
PROBLEM WILL BE A FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISM AS FLOW APPEARS JUST A             
BIT TOO FAST TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. SO IT                
WILL BE A BALANCING AT AS INCREASED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A              
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DEGREE OF CAPPING INVERSION            
SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO AGAIN HOLD OVER MENTION INTO THE             
LATE EVENING HOURS OF TOMORROW TO CATCH ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER.               
WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY                
UPPER 50S.                                                                      
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY)...VERY LITTLE APPEARS LIKELY             
TO CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS              
SLIPS JUST A TAD FARTHER BUT IT STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE                  
WEATHER. SUBTLE HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD                      
DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE A LESS                
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME             
SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT ALOFT AS UPPER GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS                 
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED RICH BOUNDARY LAYER             
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT HEATING IS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING CHANCE               
POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS A BIT MORE TRICKY ON THURSDAY                   
PENDING POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD TO SPILL                 
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING                  
STRONG AROUND +14C...COULD EASILY BE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 80S.                    
THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE MURKY WITH REGARDS             
TO TIMING OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SLOWING TREND               
OWING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ALSO A DEEPER                 
CYCLONE. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE             
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTION OF BEST HEIGHT                 
FALLS/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT                  
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL TAKE A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TURN HEADING INTO THE                 
WEEKEND AS WELL.                                                                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES               
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE STATES N TO MI. A VERY              
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS OVER NE WI/CNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...WAVE HAS ONLY            
PRODUCED SOME -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA AND JUST E OF            
THERE. TO THE W...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU MN WAS                 
PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...MAINLY W OF KDLH...BUT SOME SHRA             
HAVE DEVELOPED EWD TOWARD THE KEWEENAW RECENTLY.                                
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NE WI IS HEADED MORE ERLY AROUND RIDGE AXIS            
WHILE SHORTWAVE IN MN IS HEADING MORE NRLY. SO...IT DOES NOT APPEAR             
ANY SHORTWAVES WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN TO                  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. SHORTWAVES WILL BE CLOSE              
ENOUGH THOUGH TO AID SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTN AND              
POSSIBLY OVER THE SE FCST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...               
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS HEATING CONTINUES...LEADING TO THE                    
POTENTIAL OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT THERE ARE NO WELL-DEFINED                      
BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE A STRONG FOCUS. MODIFIED KGRB SOUNDING FOR SFC            
T/TD OF 80/58F YIELDS SBCAPE OF ABOUT 400J/KG WHILE 80/60F YIELDS               
NEARLY 800J/KG. WITH LIMITED SBCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE                 
ORDER OF 20-25KT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN.                  
DECENT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE ERN FCST AREA                
STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER             
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA WITH SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE SE OVER               
THE NEXT FEW HRS. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DRY FCST THERE.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                              
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE FROM EASTERN MANITOBA             
TO WESTERN QUEBEC...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TO            
THE WEST A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN                     
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK              
SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                
MINNESOTA... CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1026MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP            
LOW OVER MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
THROUGH THIS LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST            
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALSO A COLD FRONT LINKS THE                
MANITOBA LOW WITH THE EASTERN COLORADO LOW. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER              
IS BUILDING OVER THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS              
ARE FIRING NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONTAL.                
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WHILE THE LOW OVER                 
SASKATCHEWAN DIGS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES              
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHILE THE REST               
MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST               
AND INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE            
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST                  
COAST....WHILE THE WEST END OF THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT. THE                   
SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                    
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW              
AROUND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL DRAW WARM GULF MOISTURE INTO THE THE            
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCAPE                
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THEREFORE...               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS            
AND SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. IN THE AREA OF GREATEST             
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-41 FROM            
MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONTANA WILL STAY MAINLY OVER THE                    
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BROAD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO                   
BLANKET THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME             
STAGNANT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY              
FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND            
OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MORE WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL              
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS            
SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE Q-VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD            
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE             
ALOFT. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...AND                    
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM             
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A                      
MENTION GOING...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE             
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                            
ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS STARTS TO HOLD THE SURFACE LOW WEST OVER                 
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE THE NAM/GEM/WRF FAVOR A CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA POSITION. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISED SOLUTION. MODELS                 
FAVOR THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO WILL FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESS                  
SOLUTIONS. THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE ATLANTIC              
COAST WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE THE FORECAST                 
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE MONTANA LOW WILL SPIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.             
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SAIL ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL                 
MINNESOTA WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE PLAINS COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE             
EASTERN KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA FEEDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH               
DAKOTA WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA               
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A              
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST             
THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM.                                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR KBIS...WITH A              
NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND              
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHWEST TO THE            
NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH               
DAKOTA. THE CANADIAN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE OF MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING A               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW BACKS WEST...THE                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG             
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ESPECIALLY COUPLED               
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE             
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL LOW TO TREK EAST TO NEAR KJMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINE              
UP WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ALLOWING THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE            
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE CANADIAN FRONT SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN               
WEAK AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK FOR               
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE A LOW PRES JUST S OF LAKE WINNIPEG THIS MORNING              
MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. WINDS OVER THE LK             
TDAY WL RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATION TDAY AFT MOSTLY DECOUPLED              
NOCTURNAL LLJ WEAKENS. LLJ TNGT WL NOT BE AS STRG WITH LACK OF PRES             
FALL CENTER ACRS ONTARIO. OTRW...FOLLOWED CNDN MODEL PER NCEP                   
PREFERENCE FOR WINDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MODEL IS QUITE             
A BIT SLOWER TO PUSH SFC LO E THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.              
CNDN SOLN PROMISES A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...SO WINDS WL BE ON THE LGT             
SIDE AND RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE DAY. FOG SHOULD               
BECOME AN ISSUE TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER               
THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LYR UNDER SHARP INVRN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT DAYTIME MIXING TO END LLWS THIS MRNG. COMBINATION OF THIS                
MIXING AND MSTR ARRIVING FM THE S SHOULD ALLOW DVLPMNT OF VFR SC                
CIGS TDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA LATER TDAY AS INCREASING             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCRSG                    
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. BUT LACK OF BNDRY AND GENERAL LARGER                 
SCALE ACYC FLOW WL LIMIT COVG/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA. OTRW...RELATIVE            
DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD                
EXCEPT PSBLY UNDER ANY SHRA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
MARINE/AVIATION...KC                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...LOW AND MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE FLUX WELL UNDERWAY                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED            
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...AS EVIDENT BY BROKEN MID LEVEL CU/ALTOCU                
DECK WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCAL PWAT JUMPING FROM              
0.36 INCHES ON LAST NIGHTS 00Z SOUNDING TO 1.02 INCHES WITH THIS                
MORNINGS RELEASE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...GFS/NAM-WRF MODEL            
GUIDANCE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...WITH OBSERVED UPPER 40 TO             
LOW 50 DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL PROGS. FORECAST               
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE            
POTENTIAL AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON INCREASING MOISTURE.                      
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON AS FAR AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION            
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW 950MB WINDS RAMPING UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS SEVERELY                
LIMITING LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...WILL IGNORE OVER                  
ZEALOUS NAM-WRF/GFS SURFACE INSTABILITY PROGS SHOWING 1500+ J/KG                
CAPE (PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF OVER MOISTENING...WITH THESE MODELS               
SUGGESTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW 60S BY LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON). TAKING MORE CONSERVATIVE LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS FOR THE            
AFTERNOON (LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THIS RANGE)            
INDICATES MEAN LAYER CAPE OF ONLY 100 J/KG OR SO. THIS SHOULD BE                
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH ANY SUBTLE LAKE INDUCED WIND            
CHANGE OR ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALS...TO            
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...STILL                  
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS                  
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPS SCOUR SOME OF THIS MORNINGS CLOUD DECK.             
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES                     
WARRANTED.                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/NEARSHORES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 725 AM                                                    
OW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS              
MORNING...THOUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH BASES                 
AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE LOWEST. SHOULD SEE THESE ON THE WANE BY LATE               
MORNING...THOUGH WITH MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION AND WARM                 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CU/STRATOCU DECK WILL FILL IN BY EARLY                 
AFTERNOON. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM              
ALSO EXISTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY                   
EVENING...THOUGH POSSIBILITIES FAR TOO SMALL TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN             
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST A BIT BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY                
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT THEIR HIGHEST....BEFORE SLACKENING ONCE AGAIN             
AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT                
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT                
WITH MIST/LIGHT FOG...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS                
MORNING. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH            
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HIGH DEW POINTS WILL END UP...HAVE              
KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE...THOUGH COULD EASILY BE MVFR.                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...A SEEMINGLY BROKEN RECORD FORECAST APPEARS ON TAP FOR              
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY HEADING INTO THE             
WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH                    
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES                 
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ARE JUST HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET EACH                  
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING/COVERAGE OF ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR              
CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ELONGATED               
BUT FAIRLY WEAK (1024MB) SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES             
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE                
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION REGIME.             
ALOFT...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PER EVENING WATER VAPOR PICS                
NOTED DIVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO...WITH HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING ONTO               
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THIS                  
REGION...BUT AIDING IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER MUCH OF THE                 
EASTERN CONUS AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. IT IS THESE TWO                   
FEATURES (THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS            
THE REGION) THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.                                                     
FOR TODAY...ONGOING WARM ADVECTION THIS MORNING (H85 TEMPS ALREADY              
AT +10C PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW              
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED OFF TO THE EAST...AND BROAD                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA. INITIAL SHOT OF 850-700 MB                  
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE                
AN EXPANDING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS LIKELY               
TO BE SHORT LIVED (BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY CU FIELD THIS                       
AFTERNOON)...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO IT. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO                
JUMP TO +14C BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN                     
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS THIS PAST EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING                
TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE BY                
AFTERNOON AS IT SIMPLY MIXES NORTH TO REFOCUS ACROSS ONTARIO IN                 
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY LEAVE THE AREA IN WHAT WILL BECOME A VERY                 
BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.                 
GOOD INSOLATION AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT              
CONVECTIVE MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.                
WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS ALSO OCCURRING...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN              
TO PONDER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NAM/GFS APPEAR TO                   
STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING              
SPURIOUSLY HIGH VALUES OF CAPE (1500+ J/KG). A MORE LIKELY                      
SCENARIO FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING OUT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR              
YIELDS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S...WHICH STILL DOES                   
YIELD SOME MLCAPE (300-500 J/KG OR SO). WITH REGION FALLING ON THE              
WESTERN FRINGE OF STILL BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CAPPING                    
INVERSION NOT OVERLY STRONG...APPEARS EXPECTED CAPE MAY STILL BE                
SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW STORMS. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE                 
LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM...AS LAKE BREEZES LOOK TO REMAIN                    
MOSTLY SUPPRESSED WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW (15-20 KNOTS              
OR SO)...THOUGH ANY WEAK TURNING OF THE WINDS OFF THE LAKES OR                  
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE (SUCH AS THAT WHICH OFTEN OCCURS OVER THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. GIVEN                    
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM AND INSTABILITY...GOING 20 POP                
LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WILL SIMPLY CHANGE WORDING TO `ISOLATED`.                   
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST OF A FEW WARM AND RATHER HUMID NIGHTS                 
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UP AND NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL VERY                 
MUCH. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON...                  
SHOULD SEE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...AND COULD EVEN SEE A BIT                
OF LIGHT FOG WITH AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E                   
RIDGE. HAVE ALSO HELD ONTO EARLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTION WITH                     
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WHICH DEVELOPS TODAY TO HANG ON FOR A FEW                
HOURS AFTER SUNSET PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT              
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                                 
FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARD TO            
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REPEAT ITSELF...THOUGH WITH SUBTLE CHANGES            
TO THE OVERALL SETUP. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH H5                 
HEIGHTS PROGGED BETTER THAN 582 DM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE                 
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...WITH H85 TEMPS                
CLIMBING EVEN A BIT HIGHER (+15C ON THE GFS/+16C ON THE ECMWF) AND              
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES              
WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND EVEN UPPER 80S PER NOMOGRAMS. THIS            
COUPLED WITH A TOUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS (PERHAPS NEAR 60) SHOULD                 
YIELD MLCAPES PERHAPS APPROACHING 800 J/KG...THOUGH AGAIN THE                   
PROBLEM WILL BE A FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISM AS FLOW APPEARS JUST A             
BIT TOO FAST TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. SO IT                
WILL BE A BALANCING AT AS INCREASED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A              
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DEGREE OF CAPPING INVERSION            
SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO AGAIN HOLD OVER MENTION INTO THE             
LATE EVENING HOURS OF TOMORROW TO CATCH ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER.               
WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY                
UPPER 50S.                                                                      
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY)...VERY LITTLE APPEARS LIKELY             
TO CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS              
SLIPS JUST A TAD FARTHER BUT IT STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE                  
WEATHER. SUBTLE HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD                      
DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE A LESS                
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME             
SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT ALOFT AS UPPER GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS                 
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED RICH BOUNDARY LAYER             
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT HEATING IS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING CHANCE               
POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS A BIT MORE TRICKY ON THURSDAY                   
PENDING POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD TO SPILL                 
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING                  
STRONG AROUND +14C...COULD EASILY BE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 80S.                    
THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE MURKY WITH REGARDS             
TO TIMING OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SLOWING TREND               
OWING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ALSO A DEEPER                 
CYCLONE. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE             
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTION OF BEST HEIGHT                 
FALLS/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT                  
ECMWF. TEMPS WILL TAKE A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TURN HEADING INTO THE                 
WEEKEND AS WELL.                                                                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FCST                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT)...                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                              
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE FROM EASTERN MANITOBA             
TO WESTERN QUEBEC...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TO            
THE WEST A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN                     
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK              
SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                
MINNESOTA... CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1026MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP            
LOW OVER MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
THROUGH THIS LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST            
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALSO A COLD FRONT LINKS THE                
MANITOBA LOW WITH THE EASTERN COLORADO LOW. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER              
IS BUILDING OVER THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS              
ARE FIRING NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONTAL.                
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WHILE THE LOW OVER                 
SASKATCHEWAN DIGS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES              
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHILE THE REST               
MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST               
AND INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE            
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST                  
COAST....WHILE THE WEST END OF THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT. THE                   
SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                    
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW              
AROUND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL DRAW WARM GULF MOISTURE INTO THE THE            
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCAPE                
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THEREFORE...               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS            
AND SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. IN THE AREA OF GREATEST             
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-41 FROM            
MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONTANA WILL STAY MAINLY OVER THE                    
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BROAD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO                   
BLANKET THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME             
STAGNANT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY              
FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND            
OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MORE WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL              
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS            
SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE Q-VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD            
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE             
ALOFT. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...AND                    
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM             
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A                      
MENTION GOING...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE             
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                            
ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS STARTS TO HOLD THE SURFACE LOW WEST OVER                 
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE THE NAM/GEM/WRF FAVOR A CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA POSITION. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISED SOLUTION. MODELS                 
FAVOR THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO WILL FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESS                  
SOLUTIONS. THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE ATLANTIC              
COAST WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE THE FORECAST                 
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE MONTANA LOW WILL SPIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.             
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SAIL ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL                 
MINNESOTA WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE PLAINS COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE             
EASTERN KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA FEEDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH               
DAKOTA WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA               
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A              
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST             
THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM.                                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR KBIS...WITH A              
NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND              
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHWEST TO THE            
NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH               
DAKOTA. THE CANADIAN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE OF MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING A               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW BACKS WEST...THE                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG             
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ESPECIALLY COUPLED               
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE             
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL LOW TO TREK EAST TO NEAR KJMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINE              
UP WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ALLOWING THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE            
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE CANADIAN FRONT SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN               
WEAK AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK FOR               
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE A LOW PRES JUST S OF LAKE WINNIPEG THIS MORNING              
MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. WINDS OVER THE LK             
TDAY WL RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATION TDAY AFT MOSTLY DECOUPLED              
NOCTURNAL LLJ WEAKENS. LLJ TNGT WL NOT BE AS STRG WITH LACK OF PRES             
FALL CENTER ACRS ONTARIO. OTRW...FOLLOWED CNDN MODEL PER NCEP                   
PREFERENCE FOR WINDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MODEL IS QUITE             
A BIT SLOWER TO PUSH SFC LO E THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.              
CNDN SOLN PROMISES A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...SO WINDS WL BE ON THE LGT             
SIDE AND RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE DAY. FOG SHOULD               
BECOME AN ISSUE TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER               
THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LYR UNDER SHARP INVRN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT DAYTIME MIXING TO END LLWS THIS MRNG. COMBINATION OF THIS                
MIXING AND MSTR ARRIVING FM THE S SHOULD ALLOW DVLPMNT OF VFR SC                
CIGS TDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA LATER TDAY AS INCREASING             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCRSG                    
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. BUT LACK OF BNDRY AND GENERAL LARGER                 
SCALE ACYC FLOW WL LIMIT COVG/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA. OTRW...RELATIVE            
DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD                
EXCEPT PSBLY UNDER ANY SHRA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE/AVIATION...KC                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE FROM EASTERN MANITOBA             
TO WESTERN QUEBEC...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TO            
THE WEST A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN                     
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WEAK              
SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                
MINNESOTA... CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1026MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP            
LOW OVER MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
THROUGH THIS LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST            
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALSO A COLD FRONT LINKS THE                
MANITOBA LOW WITH THE EASTERN COLORADO LOW. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER              
IS BUILDING OVER THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS              
ARE FIRING NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD IN WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONTAL.                
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED...WHILE THE LOW OVER                 
SASKATCHEWAN DIGS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES              
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHILE THE REST               
MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST               
AND INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE            
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST                  
COAST....WHILE THE WEST END OF THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT. THE                   
SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                    
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW              
AROUND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL DRAW WARM GULF MOISTURE INTO THE THE            
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCAPE                
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THEREFORE...               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS            
AND SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. IN THE AREA OF GREATEST             
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-41 FROM            
MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONTANA WILL STAY MAINLY OVER THE                    
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BROAD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO                   
BLANKET THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME             
STAGNANT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY              
FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND            
OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MORE WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL              
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS            
SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE Q-VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD            
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE             
ALOFT. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...AND                    
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM             
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A                      
MENTION GOING...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE             
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                            
ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS STARTS TO HOLD THE SURFACE LOW WEST OVER                 
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE THE NAM/GEM/WRF FAVOR A CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA POSITION. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISED SOLUTION. MODELS                 
FAVOR THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SO WILL FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESS                  
SOLUTIONS. THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE ATLANTIC              
COAST WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE THE FORECAST                 
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE MONTANA LOW WILL SPIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.             
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SAIL ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL                 
MINNESOTA WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE PLAINS COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE             
EASTERN KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA FEEDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA WILL SLIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH               
DAKOTA WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA               
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A              
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST             
THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM.                                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR KBIS...WITH A              
NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND              
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHWEST TO THE            
NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH               
DAKOTA. THE CANADIAN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE OF MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING A               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW BACKS WEST...THE                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG             
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ESPECIALLY COUPLED               
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE             
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL LOW TO TREK EAST TO NEAR KJMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINE              
UP WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ALLOWING THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE            
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE CANADIAN FRONT SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN               
WEAK AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK FOR               
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST ON THU WHILE A LOW PRES JUST S OF LAKE WINNIPEG THIS MORNING              
MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE E. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. WINDS OVER THE LK             
TDAY WL RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATION TDAY AFT MOSTLY DECOUPLED              
NOCTURNAL LLJ WEAKENS. LLJ TNGT WL NOT BE AS STRG WITH LACK OF PRES             
FALL CENTER ACRS ONTARIO. OTRW...FOLLOWED CNDN MODEL PER NCEP                   
PREFERENCE FOR WINDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MODEL IS QUITE             
A BIT SLOWER TO PUSH SFC LO E THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.              
CNDN SOLN PROMISES A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...SO WINDS WL BE ON THE LGT             
SIDE AND RESPOND TO LK BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE DAY. FOG SHOULD               
BECOME AN ISSUE TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER               
THE LAKE AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LYR UNDER SHARP INVRN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS DURING THE OVERNGT AS MQT VWP/STANNARD               
ROCK OBS SUGS SHARP GRADIENT OF WIND SPEED THRU NOCTURNAL INVRN                 
UNDER STRENGTHENING LLJ. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA BEYOND 18Z             
TUE AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD            
TO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. OTRW...RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE            
LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD EXCEPT PSBLY UNDER            
ANY SHOWER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE/AVIATION...KC                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 420 PM)...                                               
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION...MAINLY TUE AFTN.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL RIDGE                      
PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONTARIO BTWN A            
COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER            
OVER QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH             
PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH                
HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM NE MN ACROSS WRN UPPER MI             
INTO NRN WI. SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA OVER CNTRL MN EARLIER TODAY               
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND HAVE WEAKENED. PCPN WAS                
OCCURRING ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 850MB THETA-E WHERE FAIRLY SHARP            
THETA-E ADVECTION WAS BEING MAXIMIZED. LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS              
WAS ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.                                                        
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH 500MB                 
HEIGHT RISES AROUND 30M. WITH HEIGHT RISES...NO SHORTWAVES MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA AND NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSING TO THE NW AND N              
OF FCST AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO INCLUDE POPS TONIGHT. AXIS OF               
LOW-LEVEL JET DOES SHIFT INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE WITH ELEVATED CAPE              
UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED               
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS GFS FCST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT CONVECTION. AS             
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SRLY FLOW...BEING                 
WARMEST W AROUND 60F AND COOLEST SE AROUND 50F.                                 
ON TUE...NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MLCAPE INCREASING TO             
500 TO POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER            
MI TO THE W OF THE AREA STABILIZED BY LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE LAYER IN             
SRLY FLOW. MODIFYING A FEW FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE W FOR EXPECTED               
SFC T/TD AROUND 80/UPPER 50S YIELDS A LITTLE LESS SBCAPE THAN                   
MODEL MLCAPE. IN ANYCASE...LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE              
FOR SOME AFTN CONVECTION. ATTM...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF              
ANY SHORTWAVES OR OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...WILL RETAIN MID TO            
LOW RANGE CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN...ROUGHLY W OF A MENOMINEE TO             
MUNISING LINE. AREAS TO THE E SHOULD BE STABILIZED BY MARINE LAYER.             
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY              
SVR STORMS ATTM.                                                                
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                       
UNFORTUNATELY NOT MUCH TO TIE CHANCES OF PCPN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS              
PERIOD. SO...THE DREADED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
EACH DAY IS THE WAY WE HAVE TO GO AT THIS POINT. IMAGINE WE WILL                
FIND SOME TIME FRAMES THAT WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY...BUT JUST TOO                
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND PIN THAT DOWN.                                   
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AT               
TIMES OVER CWA TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU. UTILIZED CHANCE POPS             
WITH NO ATTEMPT AT TIMING AS SEEMS LIKE THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OR               
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY GIVEN TIME UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH            
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP               
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY WITH PWATS RISING TO 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL.               
DID CONSIDER LOWERING POPS FOR WED AS INSTABILITY MINIMIZES DUE TO              
RATHER LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS. WARM FRONT WELL            
TO NORTH SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN...BUT AS WINDS BECOME                
LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY...STILL MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO             
FORM ON LOCAL LK BREEZES. RAISED TEMPS TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS              
SINCE THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. WED COULD BE QUITE A                
WARM AND HUMID DAY. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP            
ACROSS NW CWA THU AFTN THEN THROUGH REST OF AREA THU NIGHT. UPPER               
FLOW IS MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT SO CANNOT SAY THE TIMING IS SOLID AT             
THIS POINT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN              
FM ONTARIO WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING BACK BLO 50F INSTEAD OF THE UPR              
50S TO AROUND 60 READINGS THAT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THU OUT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
HAD TO KEEP PCPN IN GRIDS FRI/FRI NIGHT AS FRONT IS STILL CLOSE                 
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO JUSTIFY. ALSO...GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WAVE OF               
LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LIFTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CWA FRI             
INTO SAT AND STALLS OUT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SLOWER TREND WITH RAIN             
CHANCES EXITING CWA...FIRST ONLY SHOWN BY GFS AND UKMET A COUPLE                
DAYS AGO...IS NOW APPEARING IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES               
...AND IS PREFERRED BY HPC. SO... KEPT POPS INTO SAT NIGHT FOR ALL              
CWA...THEN LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVR THE EAST CWA NEXT SUN.                  
EXPECT MON TO BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE YET             
GFS INDICATES WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AGAIN JUST SW OF HERE WITH            
SOME QPF GENERATED OVR MN INTO NORTHERN WI. SINCE MAIN BOUNDARY IS              
WELL TO THE SOUTH AT THAT POINT WILL KEEP IT DRY.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC              
COAST BY TUE EVENING WHILE A LOW PRES TROF DRIFTS TO NW MN.                     
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS                   
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH 20-25KT AT               
TIMES ON HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. OVER THE W HALF...SRLY WINDS ARE                 
ALWAYS LIGHTER THAN THE E HALF IN HIGHLY STABLE ENVIRONMENTS WITH               
WINDS TENDING TO REMAIN MORE BACKED TO AN ERLY DIRECTION...                     
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN SHORE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FCST. MORE               
THAN LIKELY...THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE W PORTION OF               
THE LAKE THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER ERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS CLOSE TO SHORE FROM                
PICTURED ROCKS EWD (ESPECIALLY GRAND MARAIS AREA) FOR HIGHER WINDS              
AS SRLY FLOW IS OFTEN ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN THERE. WINDS WILL                 
TREND LIGHTER WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND                
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SETTLE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE             
TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS DURING THE OVERNGT AS MQT VWP/STANNARD               
ROCK OBS SUGS SHARP GRADIENT OF WIND SPEED THRU NOCTURNAL INVRN                 
UNDER STRENGTHENING LLJ. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA BEYOND 18Z             
TUE AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD            
TO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. OTRW...RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE            
LLVLS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD EXCEPT PSBLY UNDER            
ANY SHOWER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                     
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
701 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION...MAINLY TUE AFTN.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL RIDGE                      
PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONTARIO BTWN A            
COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER            
OVER QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH             
PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH                
HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM NE MN ACROSS WRN UPPER MI             
INTO NRN WI. SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA OVER CNTRL MN EARLIER TODAY               
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND HAVE WEAKENED. PCPN WAS                
OCCURRING ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 850MB THETA-E WHERE FAIRLY SHARP            
THETA-E ADVECTION WAS BEING MAXIMIZED. LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS              
WAS ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.                                                        
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH 500MB                 
HEIGHT RISES AROUND 30M. WITH HEIGHT RISES...NO SHORTWAVES MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA AND NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSING TO THE NW AND N              
OF FCST AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO INCLUDE POPS TONIGHT. AXIS OF               
LOW-LEVEL JET DOES SHIFT INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE WITH ELEVATED CAPE              
UPWARDS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED               
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS GFS FCST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT CONVECTION. AS             
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SRLY FLOW...BEING                 
WARMEST W AROUND 60F AND COOLEST SE AROUND 50F.                                 
ON TUE...NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MLCAPE INCREASING TO             
500 TO POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER            
MI TO THE W OF THE AREA STABILIZED BY LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE LAYER IN             
SRLY FLOW. MODIFYING A FEW FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE W FOR EXPECTED               
SFC T/TD AROUND 80/UPPER 50S YIELDS A LITTLE LESS SBCAPE THAN                   
MODEL MLCAPE. IN ANYCASE...LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE              
FOR SOME AFTN CONVECTION. ATTM...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF              
ANY SHORTWAVES OR OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISMS. SO...WILL RETAIN MID TO            
LOW RANGE CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN...ROUGHLY W OF A MENOMINEE TO             
MUNISING LINE. AREAS TO THE E SHOULD BE STABILIZED BY MARINE LAYER.             
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY              
SVR STORMS ATTM.                                                                
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                       
UNFORTUNATELY NOT MUCH TO TIE CHANCES OF PCPN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS              
PERIOD. SO...THE DREADED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
EACH DAY IS THE WAY WE HAVE TO GO AT THIS POINT. IMAGINE WE WILL                
FIND SOME TIME FRAMES THAT WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY...BUT JUST TOO                
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND PIN THAT DOWN.                                   
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AT               
TIMES OVER CWA TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU. UTILIZED CHANCE POPS             
WITH NO ATTEMPT AT TIMING AS SEEMS LIKE THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OR               
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY GIVEN TIME UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH            
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP               
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY WITH PWATS RISING TO 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL.               
DID CONSIDER LOWERING POPS FOR WED AS INSTABILITY MINIMIZES DUE TO              
RATHER LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS. WARM FRONT WELL            
TO NORTH SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN...BUT AS WINDS BECOME                
LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY...STILL MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO             
FORM ON LOCAL LK BREEZES. RAISED TEMPS TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS              
SINCE THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. WED COULD BE QUITE A                
WARM AND HUMID DAY. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP            
ACROSS NW CWA THU AFTN THEN THROUGH REST OF AREA THU NIGHT. UPPER               
FLOW IS MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT SO CANNOT SAY THE TIMING IS SOLID AT             
THIS POINT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN              
FM ONTARIO WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING BACK BLO 50F INSTEAD OF THE UPR              
50S TO AROUND 60 READINGS THAT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THU OUT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
HAD TO KEEP PCPN IN GRIDS FRI/FRI NIGHT AS FRONT IS STILL CLOSE                 
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO JUSTIFY. ALSO...GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WAVE OF               
LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LIFTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CWA FRI             
INTO SAT AND STALLS OUT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SLOWER TREND WITH RAIN             
CHANCES EXITING CWA...FIRST ONLY SHOWN BY GFS AND UKMET A COUPLE                
DAYS AGO...IS NOW APPEARING IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES               
...AND IS PREFERRED BY HPC. SO... KEPT POPS INTO SAT NIGHT FOR ALL              
CWA...THEN LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVR THE EAST CWA NEXT SUN.                  
EXPECT MON TO BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE YET             
GFS INDICATES WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AGAIN JUST SW OF HERE WITH            
SOME QPF GENERATED OVR MN INTO NORTHERN WI. SINCE MAIN BOUNDARY IS              
WELL TO THE SOUTH AT THAT POINT WILL KEEP IT DRY.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC              
COAST BY TUE EVENING WHILE A LOW PRES TROF DRIFTS TO NW MN.                     
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS                   
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH 20-25KT AT               
TIMES ON HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. OVER THE W HALF...SRLY WINDS ARE                 
ALWAYS LIGHTER THAN THE E HALF IN HIGHLY STABLE ENVIRONMENTS WITH               
WINDS TENDING TO REMAIN MORE BACKED TO AN ERLY DIRECTION...                     
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN SHORE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FCST. MORE               
THAN LIKELY...THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE W PORTION OF               
THE LAKE THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER ERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS CLOSE TO SHORE FROM                
PICTURED ROCKS EWD (ESPECIALLY GRAND MARAIS AREA) FOR HIGHER WINDS              
AS SRLY FLOW IS OFTEN ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN THERE. WINDS WILL                 
TREND LIGHTER WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND                
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SETTLE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE             
TUE NIGHT THRU THU ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 00Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT SOME MID-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE             
WEST TONIGHT BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN            
AT BOTH LOCATIONS FM 06-14Z ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR                    
REACHING CRITERIA AS BEST LOW-LVL WIND CORE WILL REMAIN W OF THE                
CWFA. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA BEYOND 18Z TUE AS INCREASING              
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER                   
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                     
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
205 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)...                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRES               
OVERHEAD. DIURNAL CU FORMED LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE                
DISSIPATED. LAKE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT. EXPECT THE LAKE MICHIGAN ONE TO MAKE IT TO KSAW...BUT DO              
NOT EXPECT THE LAKE SUPERIOR ONE. WAA ADVECTION PATTERN SETTLES IN              
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS EARLY AS THIS              
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IN BOTH                
LOCATIONS 08-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN             
REACHING CRITERIA. SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME AN ISSUE JUST BEYOND THIS               
TAF PERIOD AS INSTABILITY BUILDS TUE AFTN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN REVOLVES AROUND INCOMING CLOUD DECK AND               
POSSIBLE SHRA FROM WSW.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL RIDGE                      
PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MANITOBA BTWN A COUPLE OF STRONG            
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER OVER QUEBEC. AT             
THE SFC...MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP JUST TO THE W...RESULTING IN             
A BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM NW MN TO SRN WI. A FEW SHRA ARE INDICATED             
BY RADARS/SFC OBS IN CNTRL MN WITH EVEN SOME TSRA IN WCNTRL MN. A               
LITTLE SURPRISED BY THE COVERAGE GIVEN WIMPY 20-25KT LOW-LEVEL JET              
(PER PROFILERS/12Z RAOBS) AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...             
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 850MB THETA-E...RESULTING IN FAIRLY                
SHARP THETA-E ADVECTION WHERE SHRA ARE OCCURRING...AND THERE IS ALSO            
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.                                                    
12Z RUC SHOWS BEST THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTING                
MORE N THRU MN RATHER THAN E INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE LACK            
OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DRY LOW-LEVELS             
INDICATED BY 12Z KGRB SOUNDING WILL PROBABLY HOLD THRU THE AFTN                 
ACROSS UPPER MI. SO...WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE A MID CLOUD DECK SLIDE             
E INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC               
ASCENT. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL                   
OBVIOUSLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OF ONGOING SHRA W OF KDLH OVER THE             
NEXT FEW HRS TO SEE IF THEY MAY IN FACT BRUSH THE FAR W FCST AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL                    
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF                 
JAMES BAY...A BROAD RIDGE OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW                
OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING THROUGH            
THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER EASTERN U.P...THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA OF               
MINNESOTA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM IT              
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.                  
ANOTHER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL                 
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN ONTARIO...AND             
THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE THE LAKE OF THE WOODS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P.               
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT              
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONTAL SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOW OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE                   
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW               
WILL SHIFT ONLY INTO EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE DEW                 
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA                  
TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF ANY               
PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE                    
WESTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS.                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...WHILE            
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW DIGS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE            
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING. SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE              
RIDGE AND STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL                
MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE OUT              
OF THE MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA LOW                
SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. QG FRONTOGENESIS FAVOR A COLD FRONT                
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE LOWS. PLAN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA FOR NOW AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL               
REMAIN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...                
WHILE THE MONTANA LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE WILL APPEAR OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEAK 850-500MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST               
CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE            
A LITTLE OVER THE WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN U.P. GOING.                     
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK AS THE NORTHWEST            
NORTH DAKOTA LOW ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP                  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE                   
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SPREAD INTO THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL HANG SOUTH FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH IOWA...THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL COVER MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P.               
HOWEVER...MODEL ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACKING                 
SPEED OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD               
OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME UNTIL I CAN                  
CHECK THE TREND WITH THE NEXT RUN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...400 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST                                 
EXPECT A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO DRIFT SLOWLY             
E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES                     
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON WED AND               
WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSW LLJ BTWN THESE TWO SYS ON TUE            
NGT WL CAUSE A MODERATE INCRS IN WIND SPEED...BUT STABLE MARINE LYR             
WL LIMIT SPEEDS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN             
THE PLAINS AND MOVE NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THU AND FRI.                   
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MRC                                                                  
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
MARINE...KC                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1119 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN REVOLVES AROUND INCOMING CLOUD DECK AND               
POSSIBLE SHRA FROM WSW.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL RIDGE                      
PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MANITOBA BTWN A COUPLE OF STRONG            
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER OVER QUEBEC. AT             
THE SFC...MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP JUST TO THE W...RESULTING IN             
A BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM NW MN TO SRN WI. A FEW SHRA ARE INDICATED             
BY RADARS/SFC OBS IN CNTRL MN WITH EVEN SOME TSRA IN WCNTRL MN. A               
LITTLE SURPRISED BY THE COVERAGE GIVEN WIMPY 20-25KT LOW-LEVEL JET              
(PER PROFILERS/12Z RAOBS) AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...             
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 850MB THETA-E...RESULTING IN FAIRLY                
SHARP THETA-E ADVECTION WHERE SHRA ARE OCCURRING...AND THERE IS ALSO            
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.                                                    
12Z RUC SHOWS BEST THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTING                
MORE N THRU MN RATHER THAN E INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE LACK            
OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DRY LOW-LEVELS             
INDICATED BY 12Z KGRB SOUNDING WILL PROBABLY HOLD THRU THE AFTN                 
ACROSS UPPER MI. SO...WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE A MID CLOUD DECK SLIDE             
E INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC               
ASCENT. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL                   
OBVIOUSLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OF ONGOING SHRA W OF KDLH OVER THE             
NEXT FEW HRS TO SEE IF THEY MAY IN FACT BRUSH THE FAR W FCST AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL                    
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF                 
JAMES BAY...A BROAD RIDGE OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW                
OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING THROUGH            
THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER EASTERN U.P...THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA OF               
MINNESOTA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM IT              
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.                  
ANOTHER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL                 
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN ONTARIO...AND             
THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE THE LAKE OF THE WOODS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P.               
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT              
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONTAL SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOW OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE                   
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW               
WILL SHIFT ONLY INTO EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE DEW                 
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA                  
TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF ANY               
PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE                    
WESTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS.                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...WHILE            
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW DIGS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE            
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING. SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE              
RIDGE AND STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL                
MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE OUT              
OF THE MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA LOW                
SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. QG FRONTOGENESIS FAVOR A COLD FRONT                
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE LOWS. PLAN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA FOR NOW AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL               
REMAIN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...                
WHILE THE MONTANA LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE WILL APPEAR OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEAK 850-500MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST               
CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE            
A LITTLE OVER THE WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN U.P. GOING.                     
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK AS THE NORTHWEST            
NORTH DAKOTA LOW ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP                  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE                   
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SPREAD INTO THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL HANG SOUTH FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH IOWA...THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL COVER MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P.               
HOWEVER...MODEL ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACKING                 
SPEED OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD               
OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME UNTIL I CAN                  
CHECK THE TREND WITH THE NEXT RUN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TDAY WITH HI PRES RDG AXIS/ DRY                
AIRMASS OVER THE FA. LK BREEZES WL DVLP WITH SLACK PRES GRADIENT.               
EXPECT MID CLD TO RETURN THIS AFTN/TNGT IN ADVANCE OF RETURNING WARM            
FNT...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE LOWER CIGS/               
PCPN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...400 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST                                 
EXPECT A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO DRIFT SLOWLY             
E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES                     
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON WED AND               
WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSW LLJ BTWN THESE TWO SYS ON TUE            
NGT WL CAUSE A MODERATE INCRS IN WIND SPEED...BUT STABLE MARINE LYR             
WL LIMIT SPEEDS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN             
THE PLAINS AND MOVE NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THU AND FRI.                   
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...KC                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
725 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT)...                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL                    
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF                 
JAMES BAY...A BROAD RIDGE OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW                
OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING THROUGH            
THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER EASTERN U.P...THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA OF               
MINNESOTA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM IT              
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.                  
ANOTHER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL                 
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN ONTARIO...AND             
THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE THE LAKE OF THE WOODS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P.               
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT              
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONTAL SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOW OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE                   
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW               
WILL SHIFT ONLY INTO EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE DEW                 
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA                  
TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF ANY               
PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE                    
WESTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS.                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...WHILE            
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW DIGS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE            
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING. SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE              
RIDGE AND STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL                
MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE OUT              
OF THE MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA LOW                
SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. QG FRONTOGENESIS FAVOR A COLD FRONT                
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE LOWS. PLAN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA FOR NOW AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL               
REMAIN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...                
WHILE THE MONTANA LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE WILL APPEAR OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEAK 850-500MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST               
CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE            
A LITTLE OVER THE WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN U.P. GOING.                     
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK AS THE NORTHWEST            
NORTH DAKOTA LOW ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP                  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE                   
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SPREAD INTO THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL HANG SOUTH FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH IOWA...THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL COVER MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P.               
HOWEVER...MODEL ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACKING                 
SPEED OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD               
OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME UNTIL I CAN                  
CHECK THE TREND WITH THE NEXT RUN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TDAY WITH HI PRES RDG AXIS/ DRY                
AIRMASS OVER THE FA. LK BREEZES WL DVLP WITH SLACK PRES GRADIENT.               
EXPECT MID CLD TO RETURN THIS AFTN/TNGT IN ADVANCE OF RETURNING WARM            
FNT...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE LOWER CIGS/               
PCPN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...400 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST                                 
EXPECT A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO DRIFT SLOWLY             
E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES                     
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON WED AND               
WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSW LLJ BTWN THESE TWO SYS ON TUE            
NGT WL CAUSE A MODERATE INCRS IN WIND SPEED...BUT STABLE MARINE LYR             
WL LIMIT SPEEDS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN             
THE PLAINS AND MOVE NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THU AND FRI.                   
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
     FROST ADVISORY 08Z-12Z MON MIZ002-004-005-009>012-084.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/MARINE...KC                                                            
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
409 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL                    
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF                 
JAMES BAY...A BROAD RIDGE OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW                
OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING THROUGH            
THE RIDGE AND ARE OVER EASTERN U.P...THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA OF               
MINNESOTA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM IT              
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.                  
ANOTHER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL                 
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN ONTARIO...AND             
THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE THE LAKE OF THE WOODS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P.               
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT              
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONTAL SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOW OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE                   
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW               
WILL SHIFT ONLY INTO EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE DEW                 
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA                  
TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF ANY               
PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE                    
WESTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS.                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN TONIGHT...WHILE            
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW DIGS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE            
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING. SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE              
RIDGE AND STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL                
MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE OUT              
OF THE MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA LOW                
SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. QG FRONTOGENESIS FAVOR A COLD FRONT                
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE LOWS. PLAN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA FOR NOW AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL               
REMAIN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...                
WHILE THE MONTANA LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE WILL APPEAR OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEAK 850-500MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST               
CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE            
A LITTLE OVER THE WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN U.P. GOING.                     
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK AS THE NORTHWEST            
NORTH DAKOTA LOW ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP                  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE                   
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SPREAD INTO THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL HANG SOUTH FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH IOWA...THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL COVER MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P.               
HOWEVER...MODEL ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACKING                 
SPEED OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD               
OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME UNTIL I CAN                  
CHECK THE TREND WITH THE NEXT RUN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU FCST PD WITH HI PRES RDG AXIS/            
DRY AIRMASS BLDG INTO THE FA. LK BREEZES WL DVLP ON MON WITH SLACK              
PRES GRADIENT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...400 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST                                 
EXPECT A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO DRIFT SLOWLY             
E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES                     
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON WED AND               
WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSW LLJ BTWN THESE TWO SYS ON TUE            
NGT WL CAUSE A MODERATE INCRS IN WIND SPEED...BUT STABLE MARINE LYR             
WL LIMIT SPEEDS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN             
THE PLAINS AND MOVE NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THU AND FRI.                   
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
     FROST ADVISORY 08Z-12Z MON MIZ002-004-005-009>012-084.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/MARINE...KC                                                            
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
108 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN SITES /APN AND PLN/                
BEFORE DAWN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND                    
BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO.  DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE             
WEST FOR MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS.              
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...              
WITH TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                  
JK/JZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND                         
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW SPINNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF                 
SUPERIOR WITH WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MICHIGAN /EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN                   
UPPER THIS EVENING/. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD DECK HAS                
QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. RUC H9-H8 RH ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS                
TREND NICELY...WITH DRIER AIR BRINGING CLEARING TO MUCH OF                      
NORTHERN LOWER SOUTH OF M-72. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN TO                   
LEAVE AREAS FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER...WHERE                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF                
UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THESE AREAS WILL HAVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS               
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES OVERNIGHT.                                             
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. UPSTREAM                      
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...SO EVEN WITH                   
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...I DON/T THINK LOWS WILL GET INTO                   
DANGER ZONE FOR FROST. A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE                  
UPPER 30S...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.                  
GRADIENT ALREADY RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. BECAUSE OF                 
THIS...WILL ALLOW SCA FOR NEARSHORE AREAS TO END LATER THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
JK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 412 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007...                         
DISCUSSION...ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1005 MB LOW                    
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER                 
IOWA. SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROKEN TO                   
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERING EASTERN UPPER...NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AND NOW FAR NORTHERN LOWER. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
CONDITIONS EXIST. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS                
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.                                                            
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST              
TONIGHT. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ARE FINALLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION               
FROM THE NORTHWEST (A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE). MODELS CONTINUE THIS             
PROCESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING              
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...CONTINUED MOSTLY             
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (MEAN 900-700 MB RH ABOUT 90                  
PERCENT) AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF M-72 IN NORTHERN LOWER             
(MEAN 900-700 MB RH 70 TO 80 PERCENT) AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHERN                
ZONES (MEAN 900-700 MB RH ONLY 50 TO 60 PERCENT). OVERNIGHT...MEAN              
900-700 MB RH DROPS OFF BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO...WHICH SHOULD BE             
ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR              
CONDITIONS SOUTH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT NOT TOTALLY            
DECOUPLE (REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH) WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FROST                 
POTENTIAL. STILL PRETTY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER              
40S EXPECTED.                                                                   
MEMORIAL DAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A GLORIOUS MEMORIAL DAY IS ON TAP.                 
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VERY DRY              
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH MEAN 900-700 MB RH FALLING FROM               
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30                   
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE                  
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOPPING              
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5             
TO 10 MPH RANGE.                                                                
SULLIVAN                                                                        
LATER PERIODS...AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND                
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH            
MIDWEEK WITH PRECIPITATION ALSO RETURNING FOR MID WEEK AS NORTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
REGION.                                                                         
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH                    
PLAINS...AND RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR MILDER                   
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN NORTHERN              
MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY SLOW. THIS SLOW               
MOISTURE RETURN WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST                  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE             
AFTERNOON TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION. ALSO...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES             
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SURFACE              
INSTABILITY. THUS...WILL THROW IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF            
M-72 FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE                
40S...AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO             
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH WELL INTO              
THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN A FEW LOCATIONS.                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST               
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...ONCE            
WE LOSE THE SUN...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP A            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL                  
MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME            
ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE               
ACROSS THE WEST.  WITH CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER WINDS...TEMPERATURES            
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.                                    
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH TAKING            
UP RESIDENCE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE              
PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE            
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING             
FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE SURGE OF WARMTH AND            
MOISTURE ONGOING. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE                 
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY                        
AFTERNOON...SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE SOME               
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME CLOUD              
COVER FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST THAT MAY POTENTIALLY LIMIT LOW LEVEL             
INSTABILITY TO POP SOME ACTIVITY. THEN AGAIN...WE WILL GET SOME                 
SHOWER/STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WISCONSIN DURING THE                   
DAY...TO WARRANT GOING WITH LIKELY POPS. ANY SFC HEATING WOULD BE A             
BONUS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT IS STILL             
IN THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIP LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.            
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL                  
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM REASONABLE. GFS/ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT FOR               
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT                  
LAKES...AND ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH LIFTING AND RIDGING ENTERING THE               
PICTURE. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW                
MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ONWARD WILL            
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS WITH THE                  
TROUGH IN PLACE.                                                                
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS                     
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX LIFTS FROM EASTERN                   
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HIGHEST THREAT                    
LOCALLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO              
BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...ROUGHLY FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MONTEVIDEO               
AND WESTWARD. THIS AREA IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT              
AND MCV...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AT                
20Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWA CLOSELY FOR              
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOGENESIS...AS 20Z RUC/LAPS BOTH HIGHLIGHTED                 
THAT AREA WITH A CORRELATED POCKET OF ENHANCED 0-3KM MLCAPE AND                 
SURFACE VORTICITY. AFOREMENTIONED AREA ALSO HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AREA              
OF SURFACE THETA E CONVERGENCE...PER 20Z LAPS DATA. MID LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ SO EXPECT ANY HAIL TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THE SEVERE THREAT                    
DIMINISHES WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE LOWER               
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED.                                                         
OF NEXT CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...AS                
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. COUPLED UPPER               
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE               
ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE COUPLET IS PROGGED TO SET UP                 
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS...SO ANTICIPATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL         
TO OCCUR WEST OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT IT TO BE A GOOD                          
SOAKER...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN              
MN /WHERE PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES/.                                         
THE BLOCKING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL                   
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO MAKE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD                       
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF                     
SOLUTION...WHICH YIELDS LINGERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO                     
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CONVECTION SPLITTING THE MSP AIRPORT WITH ACTIVITY TO THE W AND E.              
CONTINUED THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS FOR STC FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS COULD HAVE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. AXN TO THE REAR                
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT AND TREND THEIR WILL BE DOWNWARD                   
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 1000 FEET WITH                     
VISIBILITIES A FEW MILES IN FOG. THIS TREND WILL ALSO FORECAST FOR              
RWF. RHN AND EAU WILL HAVE A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY THIS                    
EVENING THEN A TREND OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/RAH                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
655 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 318 AM TUESDAY/                                       
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL MEANDER OVER THE               
AREA THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY                 
THE WEEKEND. UPSTREAM KICKER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EXPECTED              
TO PERSIST SOUTH OF NEAR ALEUTIAN. THUS...A LONG STRETCH OF                     
UNSETTLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE              
REST OF WEEK. ALL LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE                
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE PRECIPITATION                     
CHANCES AND QPF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS               
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.              
KEPT SOME CHANCES POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST AREAS.                            
WATER VAPOR OFF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MOISTURE PLUME                   
FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS                    
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME CORRELATES TO THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTO CENTRAL PLAINS OVER                  
NORTHERN MINNSOTA. AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT AND                    
WEDNESDAY. MODEL DATA OFF THE NAM80 SHOWED PRECIP WATER VALUES                  
INCREASING TO 1.60 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATED THE BEST              
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS                
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                   
DRY WEDGE PUNCHES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND                
PUSHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY               
FRIDAY MORNING.                                                                 
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE                   
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE GREAT                              
LAKES...ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABLIZE DURING THE LATE                 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /FOR 12Z TAFS/                                                     
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SEVERAL CONCERNS. FIRST IS THREAT OF                      
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE INDICATED BY                  
SATELLITE/RADAR/RUC ROTATES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. HAVE                    
NOTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MAIN ACTIVITY                  
WHICH IS FOCUSED FROM KAXN TO KSTC TO JUST NORTH OF KRWF AND                    
SLIDING RAPIDLY NNE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT KMSP AND                      
POSSIBLY KRNH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BAND OF MVFR CLOUD COVER              
WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST MN ATTM AND MAY IMPACT KRWF YET THIS                     
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH BY LATE                        
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY DOES BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE              
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN              
/KAXN-KRWF/. THIS IS LAID OUT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT                   
WORKING TOWARDS WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNE AHEAD OF FRONT AND CONTINUE               
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KAXN AND KRWF...WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION               
TOWARDS KSTC AND KMSP THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND FAR               
WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA LOOK TO BE THIS EVENING AND                      
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY                  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING GUSTS OF                 
20-27 KTS. ..MDB..                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1011 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE            
TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT             
WILL APPROACH NORTHEASTERN NC ON TUESDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT AND                 
DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FROM           
GSO THIS MORNING OF 1392M IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PAST TWO                   
MORNINGS. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THOSE OF THE                
PAST TWO DAYS. A DEGREE OR TWO MORE COULD BE SEEN IN SOME LOCATIONS             
AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW METERS RISE IN                 
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.             
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE               
NEEDED.                                                                         
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...VARYING               
THE SKY BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY AND PARTLY SUNNY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS             
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT MOISTENED UP MUCH IN THE              
PAST FEW DAYS...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD TODAY.            
NO UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED. THE GRIDS WILL BE                
UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT AND SHIFTS WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS               
ALLOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND         
THEN STALL ACROSS NE NC ON TUESDAY. ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT                    
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST TO MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE                  
MAIN PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT DRIVES S JUST OFF THE COAST.                         
MOS NUMBERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NE AND E ZONES              
ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 21Z SREF SUGGEST CHANCE POPS MAY BE               
WARRANTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS              
OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS TO NE                 
ZONES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A                   
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE                  
ZONES.                                                                          
FRONT WASHES OUT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION                  
DIMINISHES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER RESULT IN MAX TEMPS             
IN THE UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THE LATTER                 
PART OF THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE                      
CENTRAL CONUS. TIMING AND DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEMS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION            
REMAIN UNCLEAR. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS              
ON SAT AND SUN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL                  
PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND             
6000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH SKIES MAINLY                    
CLEAR...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE                
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BRING                  
REDUCED CIGS TUESDAY AND WED AT KRWI. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS                    
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BLAES                                                                
NEAR TERM...JFB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BLAES                                                              
LONG TERM...BLAES                                                               
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1118 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...CONVECTION APPROACHING WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF WEBB                   
COUNTY BUT STILL 40 TO 50 MILES AWAY. DECIDED TO PUT POPS IN WEBB               
COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD SOME CONVECTION REMAIN. IF IT GETS                 
INTO WEBB COUNTY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION                   
SINCE SUPPORTING WINDS ARE LIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                         
UPDATE...FORECAST FINE FOR NOW...NO CHANGES NEEDED. STILL A                     
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO TO GET INTO                     
NORTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS THERE. EVERYTHING ELSE FINE AND                 
NOTHING OUT OF TOLERANCE NOW SO NO NEED TO CHANGE ANYTHING.                     
AVIATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA                 
MADRE WILL STREAM OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR               
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS (KALI-KVCT) BETWEEN             
10Z-11Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL            
THEN PREVAIL OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL TEXAS. 15Z RUC MODEL SHOWS TAIL END OF VORTICITY AXIS                   
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. MODELS KEEP             
THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH SOME WEAK                  
SURFACE TO 85H MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY                    
UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS (CAPE FROM 3000-3500                
J/KG) WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION                 
THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO COULD                    
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL                
PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE                
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.              
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING WILL RESULT PRECLUDING ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                 
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING OVER THE                
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                   
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO                      
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER                  
CONDITIONS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL                
PLAINS AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALICE NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA.                   
MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF                    
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE                   
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS                     
THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                         
MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD                     
WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND 3-4 FOOT SEAS.                       
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                  
REMAINS AT MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE CAPPING                     
INVERSION IN A WEAKENED STATE(700HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW +10C). SOME             
WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE                   
SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY PREVAILS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION WELL            
TO THE NORTH MAY LEAVE A THETA-E GRADIENT INVOF THE NORTHERN CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY(GREATEST               
DEFINITION FRIDAY) WILL BE THE SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM. WILL ONLY             
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. MOIST                         
GROUND/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING            
PATCHY FOG. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                
DRY/SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SATURDAY THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE VULNERABLE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                 
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY                   
INDICATE GHOST POPS AS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE RATHER FORMIDABLE              
GIVEN 700HPA TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE +10C. NO CHANGES TO THE                    
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  90  72  86  69  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
VICTORIA          69  89  70  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            75 101  76  98  74  /  20  10  10   0   0                     
ALICE             70  94  71  90  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
ROCKPORT          74  87  74  86  73  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
COTULLA           72  97  71  94  72  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        71  92  72  89  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
NAVY CORPUS       75  86  75  86  74  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FORECAST FINE FOR NOW...NO CHANGES NEEDED. STILL A                    
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO TO GET INTO                     
NORTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS THERE. EVERYTHING ELSE FINE AND                 
NOTHING OUT OF TOLERANCE NOW SO NO NEED TO CHANGE ANYTHING.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA                
MADRE WILL STREAM OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR               
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS (KALI-KVCT) BETWEEN             
10Z-11Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL            
THEN PREVAIL OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL TEXAS. 15Z RUC MODEL SHOWS TAIL END OF VORTICITY AXIS                   
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. MODELS KEEP             
THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH SOME WEAK                  
SURFACE TO 85H MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY                    
UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS (CAPE FROM 3000-3500                
J/KG) WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION                 
THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO COULD                    
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL                
PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE                
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.              
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING WILL RESULT PRECLUDING ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                 
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING OVER THE                
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                   
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO                      
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER                  
CONDITIONS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL                
PLAINS AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALICE NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA.                   
MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF                    
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE                   
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS                     
THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                         
MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD                     
WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND 3-4 FOOT SEAS.                       
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                  
REMAINS AT MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE CAPPING                     
INVERSION IN A WEAKENED STATE(700HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW +10C). SOME             
WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE                   
SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY PREVAILS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION WELL            
TO THE NORTH MAY LEAVE A THETA-E GRADIENT INVOF THE NORTHERN CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY(GREATEST               
DEFINITION FRIDAY) WILL BE THE SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM. WILL ONLY             
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. MOIST                         
GROUND/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING            
PATCHY FOG. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                
DRY/SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SATURDAY THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE VULNERABLE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                 
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY                   
INDICATE GHOST POPS AS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE RATHER FORMIDABLE              
GIVEN 700HPA TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE +10C. NO CHANGES TO THE                    
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  90  72  86  69  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
VICTORIA          69  89  70  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            75 101  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
ALICE             71  94  71  90  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
ROCKPORT          74  87  74  86  73  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
COTULLA           72  97  71  94  72  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        71  92  72  89  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
NAVY CORPUS       75  86  75  86  74  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...MESO/AVIATION                                                           
GW/86...GRIDS/PUBLIC                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTH              
CENTRAL TEXAS. 15Z RUC MODEL SHOWS TAIL END OF VORTICITY AXIS                   
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. MODELS KEEP             
THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH SOME WEAK                  
SURFACE TO 85H MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY                    
UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS (CAPE FROM 3000-3500                
J/KG) WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION                 
THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO COULD                    
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL                
PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE                
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.              
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING WILL RESULT PRECLUDING ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                 
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG FORMING OVER THE                
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO                     
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER                  
CONDITIONS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL                
PLAINS AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALICE NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA.                   
MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF                    
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE                   
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS                     
THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD                    
WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND 3-4 FOOT SEAS.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                 
REMAINS AT MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE CAPPING                     
INVERSION IN A WEAKENED STATE(700HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW +10C). SOME             
WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE                   
SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY PREVAILS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION WELL            
TO THE NORTH MAY LEAVE A THETA-E GRADIENT INVOF THE NORTHERN CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY(GREATEST               
DEFINITION FRIDAY) WILL BE THE SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM. WILL ONLY             
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. MOIST                         
GROUND/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING            
PATCHY FOG. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                
DRY/SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SATURDAY THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE VULNERABLE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                 
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY                   
INDICATE GHOST POPS AS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE RATHER FORMIDABLE              
GIVEN 700HPA TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE +10C. NO CHANGES TO THE                    
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  90  72  86  69  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
VICTORIA          69  89  70  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            75 101  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
ALICE             71  94  71  90  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
ROCKPORT          74  87  74  86  73  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
COTULLA           72  97  71  94  72  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        71  92  72  89  70  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
NAVY CORPUS       75  86  75  86  74  /  10  10  10  10   0                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT TERM                                                             
BB/85...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1031 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A WEAK VEERING WIND PROFILE IN                
THE LOWEST 10 KFT. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED A CONVERGENCE ZONE               
OVER THE MID COAST REGION WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN                 
PLACE WITH LIFTED INDEX -6 TO -7 DEGREES. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE                 
DEVELOPED OVER FROM NORTH OF ROCKPORT TO PORT LAVACA. A FEW FUNNEL              
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK WIND PROFILE.             
12Z RUC 25H STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME WEAK DIFLUENCE MOVING               
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARD THE MID COAST REGION. LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD MIGRATE INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED                
POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. NO OTHER CHANGES                
MADE TO THE FORECAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WL PREVAIL                    
THROUGH THE FCST PD AS A MEAN LYR RDG AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO              
THE RGN.  THUS THE AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP.                  
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION WL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS             
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND. WL NOT MENTION PCPN ON WED AS THE CAP               
STRENGTHENS AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT EVEN FURTHER.  THE PROXIMITY              
TO A SFC RDG AXIS WL KEEP THE WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK.  WL BE MORE                
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD CVR FCST GIVEN THE DRIER WX PATTERN AND               
LIGHTER WINDS.                                                                  
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE RGN THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WL OCCUR AS WELL AND WL BE                 
MOSTLY CONFINED TO TAF SITES SUCH AS ALI.  IFR CONDITIONS WL                    
TRANSITION TO MVFR BY 15Z TDA. MVFR CONDITIONS WL TRANSITION TO VFR             
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY NOON AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY RISE AND               
THIN OUT.  MVFR CONDITIONS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TNT             
ACROSS TAF SITES SUCH AS ALI AND VCT.                                           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...REGION WILL REMAIN                 
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR MEXICO AND TROF ACROSS              
THE SE U.S. AND NRN GULF THROUGH SAT...RESULTING IN A DRY/SUBSIDENT             
REGIME ACROSS S TX. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO             
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED            
SEA BREEZE FORCED SHRA AT BEST...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT                    
MENTIONING IN FCST. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECASTER THAT               
MOIST SOIL FROM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL INITIALLY HINDER TEMPS FROM                 
INCREASING.  AS THE SOIL DRIES...AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES... A                  
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS PROGS THE               
RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SUN/MON AS A NRN STREAM LOW DIGS                
FARTHER S AND E THUS AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE FARTHER W.                            
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH             
A DRY FCST.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  71  90  72  88  /  10   0   0  10  10                     
VICTORIA          87  68  89  70  89  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            98  76 100  76  98  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
ALICE             92  70  94  71  91  /  10   0   0  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          87  73  87  73  87  /  20   0   0  10  10                     
COTULLA           91  69  93  72  94  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        92  70  94  72  90  /  10   0   0  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       87  74  87  74  86  /  10   0   0  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT TERM                                                             
BB/85...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
320 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW SHIFTED OFFSHORE                 
OF THE SC WATERS WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. AS MENTIONED                
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW LEVELS ARE DRIER AS EVIDENT FROM 00Z               
SOUNDING WITH PWAT NEAR 0.92. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB            
IS NOTED IN RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM FL TO THE                 
OHIO VALLEY. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED MAINLY OVER GA ZONES THROUGH                 
EARLY MORNING.                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING LOW PWATS TODAY MAINLY              
AROUND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY                  
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS                
DAYS. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE              
NRN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EWD. HIGHS REBOUND FROM MORNING LOWS IN                
THE 60S TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS                    
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH PATCHY               
FOG POSSIBLE OVER NE ZONES. THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT                      
INDICATING A SWATH OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE                  
REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY               
AGAIN OF ISOLD SMALL SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH              
TEMPS FROM WED. EYES SHIFT SWD AS NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A              
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN. GFS                 
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND IS PLAGUED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT              
MOVES THE SYSTEM NNE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE LATE SAT. NAM IS MORE              
REASONABLE BUT PROBABLY TOO DEEP WITH PRESSURES. ONLY MINOR                     
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY 20%               
FOR THE FL ZONES WITH ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY SEEMS A               
WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
.LONG TERM...(SAT-WED). ON SAT GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL                   
TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF              
THE YUCATAN STRAIT. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO N-S POP GRADIENT IS                  
PLANNED WITH AROUND 30-40% S ZONES AND 20-30% N. GENERALLY USED A               
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST GFS RUN FOR THE POPS AND                  
TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SAT-SUN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND A                
NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...BY EARLY              
MON MOST NWP GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WRN ATLC              
WITH POPS DECREASING TO AROUND 20-30% INTO MID WEEK. GENERAL BROAD              
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE ERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z OTHERWISE                      
VFR. EAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS                         
AFTER 13Z.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH                          
3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. A CONTINUED ELEVATED RISK OF RIP                              
CURRENTS DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTING EASTERLY                         
SWELLS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG FOR ALL OF THE INLAND                    
COUNTIES OF NE FL DUE TO LOW RH AND HIGH DISPERSION. LOWEST                     
RH`S TODAY (25-30%) WILL BE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION. ON               
THURSDAY...MIN RH`S ACROSS SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION FORECAST FALL TO              
30-35% FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS SO HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WX WATCH.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  90  61  89  63 /   0  10  20  10                                           
SSI  82  70  82  70 /   0  20  20   0                                           
JAX  85  63  86  64 /   0  10  20  10                                           
SGJ  82  68  82  69 /   0  10  20  10                                           
GNV  89  61  89  64 /  10   0  20  10                                           
OCF  89  61  89  65 /  10   0  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-                    
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.                    
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                
     EVENING FOR COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.                          
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
421 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN             
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST CONCERNS.                     
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SQUALL LINE IS                
DYING OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK CELLULAR CONVECTION                 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AT FORECAST TIME.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH             
AND JET STREAM IN ITS AXIS REMAIN OVER EASTERN CO AT FORECAST TIME.             
NAM AND RUC INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION TO                     
REDEVELOP BEHIND THE DYING SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING SO WILL LEAVE               
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NOW.  DAY SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE              
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE A               
DECISION ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
NEAR 1.5 INCHES IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION TO DUMP RAINFALL             
RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY APPROACH OR                  
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KS.  AS THE            
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH A COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING                
HOURS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPING PRECIPITATION.  WITH A                
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE                        
LIMITED...MAKING SEVERE WEATHER LESS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT.  THE               
MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF            
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A TROPICAL SIGNAL             
TO THE AIRMASS.  DUE TO HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES EAST OF              
THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM                
LIKELY...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLOODING CANNOT BE            
RULED OUT.  THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE                
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THIS                  
SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY END PRECIPITATION.  TRIED TO MATCH POPS             
WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HAVE             
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ALONG THE FRONT.  BROUGHT POPS TO AN END                 
AFTER 12Z.                                                                      
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...JET STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE                   
CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES              
AGAIN.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT               
BETWEEN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANY EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IN THE UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE CWA A RELATIVELY STABLE                
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTY             
CLOUDY SKIES AND THEREFORE SOME SUNSHINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE            
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THE                  
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE AS THE RETURN                
FLOW RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY IS MORE LIKELY TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND            
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
NAM AND GFS HAVE ALSO DISPLAYED SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN                  
BRINGING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY MORNING...ENHANCING             
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION WITH THE RETREATING FRONT.  WITH THE                
FRONT RETREATING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL VORT MAX               
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON HAVE GONE WITH MID TO UPPER CHANCE POPS (40-50 PERCENT)               
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.  THE MODELS             
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS THURSDAY                 
NIGHT AND MOVING EAST ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.                
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND AN EXITING JET STREAK                 
BRINGING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER CENTRAL KS THURSDAY                 
NIGHT THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION                
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND MORE LIKELY             
HEAVY RAINFALL.  AT THIS TIME THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET            
WITHOUT KNOWING FOR SURE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT WILL SLIDE.                
ONCE THIS IS DETERMINED IT SHOULD BE EASIER TO PLACE AN AREA MORE               
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  THE PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY UPPER             
LEVEL JET STREAK/VORT MAX WILL ALSO LARGELY DETERMINE AREAS OF                  
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.                         
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UKMET AND GFS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL              
LOW TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SENDING THE               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN.  NOT                
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS             
FEATURE UPSTREAM THAT FAVORS MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE              
EAST AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES.  AT THIS                
TIME HAVE MATCHED UP WITH NEIGHBORS AND PLACED CHANCE POPS IN THIS              
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.            
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH LACK OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM...LOWER CIGS                  
AROUND A THOUSAND FEET LOOK MORE LIKELY IN THE SHORTER TERM. BETTER             
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL ARRIVAL OF                
BETTER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...I.E. LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BOUNDARY              
THEN MOVES THROUGH DURING AFTN AND EVENING LIFTING CIGS AND BRINGING            
END TO TSTMS. BY EARLY THURSDAY, WE MAY BE PRONE TO SOME FOG WITH               
GOOD RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. LATER                    
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ008>010-20>22-34>36.                           
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA WITH TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF                 
PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE E. SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLPD OVER MAINLY THE             
W HALF OF THE CWA YDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK SHRTWV/H5 THERMAL TROF/             
PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES HAS PRETTY MUCH WANED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG.            
SINCE WARM FNT E OF LO ARND INL IS TO THE N...JUST A FEW LINGERING              
SHRA ARE GOING OVER THE W...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLD                 
FARTHER E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...00Z DVN SDNG DEPICTS A DRIER                      
ATMOSPHERE (PWAT 1.01 INCH) THAT AT GRB (PWAT 1.33 INCH). DEEP                  
MIXING TO H75 ON THIS SDNG WOULD CAUSE SFC DWPT TO DROP TO ARND 50              
(VS ARND 60 OVER THE FA NOW). IN FACT...VERY LTL IF ANY CNVCTN DVLPD            
IN THIS AREA YDAY. OAX SDNG IS ALSO DRIER THAN MPX (PWAT 1.35 INCH              
VS 1.61 INCH AT MPX)...BUT NOT AS DRY AS DVN. OTRW...MORE VIGOROUS              
CNVCTN IS ONGOING OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF MORE POTENT              
SHRTWV/100KT H3 JET MAX OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES ROTATING ARND SRN                
FLANK OF NEARLY CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHCS OVER THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPR LO IN THE PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E.                  
FOR TDAY...GFS/NAM SHOW DEEP SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLUGGISH CUTOFF LO IN            
THE NRN PLAINS. AS STRG SHRTWV ROTATING ARND SYS THIS MRNG DEEPENS              
THE UPR LO OVER SD TDAY...UPR RDG AXIS FCST TO SHARPEN OVER THE UPR             
LKS. SINCE H925-85 FLOW FCST TO BACK A BIT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING               
PRES TO THE W...EXPECT LLVL TRAJECTORIES TO COME FM THE DRIER SOURCE            
NR DVN. SINCE H925 FLOW IS ALSO FCST TO BE SLGTLY DIFFLUENT AND H5              
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN YDAY (ARND -10C VS -12C)...SUSPECT                
SHRA/TSRA COVG TDAY WL BE LESS THAN YDAY. BEST CHC WOULD SEEM TO BE             
OVER THE W CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MSTR AND WHERE LK                
BREEZES MIGHT LOCALLY ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC. SINCE PRES GRADIENT/H925              
SSW WIND IS FCST TO BE WEAKER TDAY THAN YDAY...LK BREEZE FORMATION              
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TDAY. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT POPS OVER THE              
CNTRL AND RESTRICT MENTION OF 30-40 POPS TO W OF THE HURON MTNS/MQT             
TO IRON RIVER. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR IWD AT 18Z FOR 80/57                  
YIELDS MLCAPE OF 400 J/KG (COMPARED WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG             
YDAY). MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS NR 83              
AWAY FM LK MODERATION.                                                          
TNGT...FA PROGGED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR OF OCCLUDED LO IN THE NRN            
PLAINS. SINCE WARM FNT WL BE TO THE N...THINK PCPN CHCS WL BE                   
MINIMAL AFT DIURNAL HTG WANES. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WEAK                 
SHRTWV GFS LIFTS N WELL E OF CLOSED LO IN THE NRN PLAINS. THIS                  
SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN            
ONLY A FEW -SHRA FM MID CLD DECK UNDER THIS SYS. SINCE UKMET/NAM                
ALSO SHOW THE MOISTENING DEPICTED BY THE GFS...HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN             
POPS TNGT OVER ALL BUT THE E...WHERE MOISTENING IS FCST TO BE LESS              
SUBSTANTIAL. SINCE INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST (FCST             
SSI GENERALLY AOA 0C)...DOWNGRADED POTENTIAL OF TS TO SCHC IN THE               
ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMICS. OTRW...INCRSG MSTR/CLD COVER WL RESTRICT             
DIURNAL TEMP FALL...SO TENDED TOWARD THE HIER ETA MOS NUMBERS.                  
LOOKS LIKE SHRA/TSRA CHCS WL INCRS ON THU ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF            
AS GFS/NAM/UKMET/CNDN ALL INDICATE A SHRTWV ROTATING NWD ON THE ERN             
FLANK OF PARENT CLOSED LO STILL STUCK IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO              
NW WI LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING 80KT H3 JET MAX. GFS/             
NAM FCST SDNGS SUG QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV             
THAT IMPACTS THE FA TNGT WL LINGER THRU THE DAY BEFORE ARRIVAL OF               
THIS SYS...SO DESTABILIZATION SHOULD NOT BE SGNFT. MODIFIED GFS FCST            
SDNG FOR 75/60 YIELDS MLCAPE APRCHG 600 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
GENERALLY UNDER 25-30 KT AND HI WBZ > 12K FT WITH MARGINAL                      
INSTABILITY SUG SVR THREAT MINIMAL. HOWEVER...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP             
TO LIKELY OVER THE W HALF THU AFTN AFT LOWER CHC POPS EARLIER.                  
GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY SLOTTING             
BEHIND LIFTING SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE FA SW-NE THU NGT. WL DIMINISH             
THEN END POPS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THE NGT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.            
THEN WENT DRY ON FRI MRNG BEFORE INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCRS               
AGAIN IN THE AFTN OVER THE W WITH SLOW APRCH OF VORTEX FM THE NRN               
PLAINS. CONSIDERING TREND TOWARD SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE                  
CUTOFF...WL KEEP FRI DAY ALL DAY OVER THE E.                                    
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX.                                                       
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY BACK WEST              
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH             
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON                 
SATURDAY WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS                  
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15KT AT THE BUOY. OVER THE WEST               
HALF OF THE LAKE...AS IS TYPICAL IN SOUTHERLY WIND REGIMES OVER A               
VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY              
NEAR THE MINNESOTA SHORELINE. FOR THE MOST PART... GENERALLY LIGHT              
WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE THROUGH              
AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE               
AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER UNDER SHARP INVERSION.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OVER                  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO HIGH DEW POINTS AND COOL LAKE...MAY              
COME ON SHORE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO               
FOR BR AROUND SUNRISE. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR MAINLY OVER             
LAKE SUPERIOR...HOWEVER...THESE ARE SO ISOLATED WILL NOT INCLUDE IN             
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF BROKEN  CLOUD COVER AND                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC DISCUSSION...KC                                                          
MARINE/AVIATION...DG                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007                                                     
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TEMP/DP SPREADS ONLY A FEW DEGREES ATTM. FOG FORMING VICINITY OF AXN            
AND EXPECT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES. SOME SHOWERS WEST OF MSP THROUGH RWF MOVING NNW.                  
THIS AREA ON NW WILL SEE INCREASING WAA IN THE 850-600MB LAYER                  
INTO WEDNESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. CU RULE                 
VERY NEGATIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BKN VFR CEILINGS FORECAST.                      
INDICATED THUNDER VCNTY AT ALL SITES BEGINNING IN THE MID TO LATE               
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES                 
INTO WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 409 PM TUESDAY/                                        
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS                     
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX LIFTS FROM EASTERN                   
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HIGHEST THREAT                    
LOCALLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO              
BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...ROUGHLY FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MONTEVIDEO               
AND WESTWARD. THIS AREA IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT              
AND MCV...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AT                
20Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWA CLOSELY FOR              
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOGENESIS...AS 20Z RUC/LAPS BOTH HIGHLIGHTED                 
THAT AREA WITH A CORRELATED POCKET OF ENHANCED 0-3KM MLCAPE AND                 
SURFACE VORTICITY. AFOREMENTIONED AREA ALSO HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AREA              
OF SURFACE THETA E CONVERGENCE...PER 20Z LAPS DATA. MID LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ SO EXPECT ANY HAIL TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THE SEVERE THREAT                    
DIMINISHES WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE LOWER               
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED.                                                         
OF NEXT CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...AS                
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. COUPLED UPPER               
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE               
ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE COUPLET IS PROGGED TO SET UP                 
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS...SO ANTICIPATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL         
TO OCCUR WEST OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT IT TO BE A GOOD                          
SOAKER...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN              
MN /WHERE PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES/.                                         
THE BLOCKING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL                   
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO MAKE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD                       
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF                     
SOLUTION...WHICH YIELDS LINGERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO                     
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
636 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...                                                          
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOT KEPT MUCH                
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WAS ANTICIPATED WITH THE INITIAL FORECAST                
PACKAGE.  THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO              
HAVE NOT DOWNPLAYED POPS TOO MUCH YET AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE CHANCES FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING LOOK SMALL HOWEVER AND HAVE GONE WITH                
RAIN SHOWER WORDING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONVEY THIS.                 
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THERE IS NOT MUCH              
OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT LEFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SO HAVE              
ALSO GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING.               
IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT ALL TODAY                  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL HAVE TO BE MADE TO THE GOING                           
FORECAST...HOWEVER RUC/NAM/GFS ALL INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL             
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO HAVE NOT MADE SWEEPING                
CHANGES REDUCING POPS AT THIS TIME.                                             
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN             
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST CONCERNS.                     
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SQUALL LINE IS                
DYING OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK CELLULAR CONVECTION                 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AT FORECAST TIME.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH             
AND JET STREAM IN ITS AXIS REMAIN OVER EASTERN CO AT FORECAST TIME.             
NAM AND RUC INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION TO                     
REDEVELOP BEHIND THE DYING SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING SO WILL LEAVE               
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NOW.  DAY SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE              
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE A               
DECISION ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
NEAR 1.5 INCHES IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION TO DUMP RAINFALL             
RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY APPROACH OR                  
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KS.  AS THE            
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH A COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING                
HOURS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPING PRECIPITATION.  WITH A                
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE                        
LIMITED...MAKING SEVERE WEATHER LESS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT.  THE               
MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF            
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A TROPICAL SIGNAL             
TO THE AIRMASS.  DUE TO HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES EAST OF              
THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM                
LIKELY...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLOODING CANNOT BE            
RULED OUT.  THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE                
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THIS                  
SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY END PRECIPITATION.  TRIED TO MATCH POPS             
WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HAVE             
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ALONG THE FRONT.  BROUGHT POPS TO AN END                 
AFTER 12Z.                                                                      
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...JET STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE                   
CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES              
AGAIN.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT               
BETWEEN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANY EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IN THE UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE CWA A RELATIVELY STABLE                
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTY             
CLOUDY SKIES AND THEREFORE SOME SUNSHINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE            
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THE                  
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE AS THE RETURN                
FLOW RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY IS MORE LIKELY TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND            
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
NAM AND GFS HAVE ALSO DISPLAYED SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN                  
BRINGING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY MORNING...ENHANCING             
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION WITH THE RETREATING FRONT.  WITH THE                
FRONT RETREATING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL VORT MAX               
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON HAVE GONE WITH MID TO UPPER CHANCE POPS (40-50 PERCENT)               
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.  THE MODELS             
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS THURSDAY                 
NIGHT AND MOVING EAST ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.                
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND AN EXITING JET STREAK                 
BRINGING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER CENTRAL KS THURSDAY                 
NIGHT THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION                
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND MORE LIKELY             
HEAVY RAINFALL.  AT THIS TIME THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET            
WITHOUT KNOWING FOR SURE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT WILL SLIDE.                
ONCE THIS IS DETERMINED IT SHOULD BE EASIER TO PLACE AN AREA MORE               
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  THE PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY UPPER             
LEVEL JET STREAK/VORT MAX WILL ALSO LARGELY DETERMINE AREAS OF                  
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.                         
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UKMET AND GFS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL              
LOW TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SENDING THE               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN.  NOT                
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS             
FEATURE UPSTREAM THAT FAVORS MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE              
EAST AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES.  AT THIS                
TIME HAVE MATCHED UP WITH NEIGHBORS AND PLACED CHANCE POPS IN THIS              
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.            
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH LACK OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM...LOWER CIGS                  
AROUND A THOUSAND FEET LOOK MORE LIKELY IN THE SHORTER TERM. BETTER             
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL ARRIVAL OF                
BETTER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...I.E. LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BOUNDARY              
THEN MOVES THROUGH DURING AFTN AND EVENING LIFTING CIGS AND BRINGING            
END TO TSTMS. BY EARLY THURSDAY, WE MAY BE PRONE TO SOME FOG WITH               
GOOD RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. LATER                    
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1112 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF DERECHO MOVING               
SOUTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ATTM VERY WELL. 12Z GFS             
DOES NOT SHOW THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX NEAR DALLAS WHILE THE 12Z NAM               
DEVELOPS AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR COLLEGE STATION AROUND 18Z                  
AND MOVES IT RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA                  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC/NGM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE                
CURRENT PRECIP AREAS WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING BECAUSE THESE MODELS             
TYPICALLY OVER OVERDONE WITH RESPECT TO QPF IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE                 
CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING COMPLEX INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND                
21Z. MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                       
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. BUT VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY SEE                 
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                  
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX TO                 
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. WILL PUT IN A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE VCT AREA THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SMALL MCS AFFECTING WEBB              
COUNTY WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT RAINFALL TO            
END WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS WEBB COUNTY.  OTHERWISE...A                
CONTINUED DRY FCST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PD AS WIDESPREAD                
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  VERY MARGINAL                 
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CAP WL BE ENOUGH THAT A                
ROGUE CONVECTIVE CELL OR TWO WL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                    
NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING AND THU AFTN.  WL CARRY 10% POPS            
TO COVER THIS.  THE MAIN STORY WL BE THE WARM TEMPS.  TEMPS WL PEAK             
TDA AND REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME ON THU.  OVERALL...THE GFS MOS                
TEMPS LOOK VERY GOOD AND WL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.                                
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUMMER-TIME FLAT GRADIENT WL                
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.  THE USUAL                  
SEABREEZE CYCLE WL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTN AND EVE                 
HOURS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.  STILL EXPECTING                    
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC LVLS.  SEAS WL AVG 3-5 FT.                      
AVIATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH TX THIS MORNING             
WL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG.  EXPECT ONLY PATCHY                
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL                
BEND THIS MORNING.  VERY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT TAF SITE) BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z            
THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WL BE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.             
SKIES WL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.  MVFR                
CONDITIONS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TNT ACROSS TAF SITES            
SUCH AS ALI AND VCT.                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS IN AGREEMENT                 
WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND NRN GULF ON THU NITE            
THRU FRI. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NLY FLOW ALOFT AND             
PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX AND BRUSHING THE EXTREME NE                   
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRI. LATEST SOLN INDICATES SUFFICIENT                    
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND NO CAP FOR THE NE CWA...THEREFORE WILL               
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHC. FEEL UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE TOO FAR                 
REMOVED TO WARRANT GOING HIGHER THAN 20 POPS. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGD            
TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THRU THE WEEKEND AS NRN STREAM LOW DIGS                  
FARTHER S THUS MAINTAINING A N TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL                  
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS                  
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THRU THE LONG TERM. A STRONG CAP DVLPS             
AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PRECIP WILL BE NIL EXCEPT FOR THE               
POSSIBLE ROGUE SHRA DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE            
THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  72  89  70  88  /  10  10  10   0  10                     
VICTORIA          89  70  90  69  87  /  20  10  10  10  20                     
LAREDO           102  76 100  74  99  /  10  10   0   0  10                     
ALICE             93  71  93  70  90  /  10  10  10   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          87  74  87  73  86  /  10  10  10   0  10                     
COTULLA           95  72  94  72  95  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        92  71  92  70  89  /  10  10  10   0  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  74  86  /  10  10  10   0  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT TERM                                                             
JR/19...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST                 
FOR THE DAY AS THIS AREA IS IN THE MUCH STRONGER CAP AND DOUBT                  
ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF A STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO                
TO SAN SABA LINE. ALSO PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE TIL AFTER 21Z AS WE HAVE              
TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND GET THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH               
FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING THIS                      
AFTERNOON...RUC FORECAST CAPES TO BE 4 TO 6 THOUSAND J/KG AND                   
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. SO WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SEVERE                
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ALSO                     
COOLED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHERE CLOUDS AND                   
OUTFLOWS AND SOME FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE               
COOLER. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE AND               
LESS EFFECTS FROM CLOUDS...OUTFLOWS AND FRONT...HAVE INCREASED                  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. UPDATES TO FLY SOON.                                     
BRAZZELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 30/17Z ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER                    
30/17Z. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG                  
COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND THEN STALL OUT. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL                 
DEVELOP ACROSS BIG COUNTRY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AFTER 30/20Z. ISOLD                
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS               
AFTER 30/20Z.  21                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AMARILLO AT 3 AM LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH                       
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WITH A EXTRA              
PUSH FROM OUTFLOW FROM STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN                 
OKLAHOMA. WITH WRF SB CAPES OF 4000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE                
BIG COUNTRY...MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION                  
SEVERE IN BIG COUNTRY ZONES TONIGHT. WRF MODEL HANGS UP FRONT                   
ALONG I-20 TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY...BUT ACTUAL                   
POSITION DEPENDS ON CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY                  
DRIVE IT SOUTHWARD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON DRYLINE                
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN CROCKETT COUNTY AND THE WESTERN CONCHO               
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING. THIS A                 
LESS LIKELY...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. CAP HAS BEEN HARD TO ERODE THE                
LAST COUPLE DAYS...EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE LITTLE/NO CAP BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UNSTABLE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON                  
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW                       
BOUNDARIES WILL INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES...BUT BEST CHANCES AROUND 30             
PERCENT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY.                                       
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE                     
WEEKEND. MAY SEE EVENING OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE                   
MOUNTAINS AND PANHANDLE...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOW LEVEL                    
FLOW. CHANCES OF IT REACHING THE BIG COUNTRY OR FURTHER SOUTH                   
INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY ARE LOW EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                        
MORNING...BUT POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS           
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES                 
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS                
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  85  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  92  68  89  67 /  10  20  20  20                                    
JUNCTION  92  69  88  68 /  10  20  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/27                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE                                                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS FORECAST                
AREA THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH              
WAVE HAVE WEAKENED. NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN                
MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.            
LATEST 12Z RUC AND NAM INDICATE DECENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND             
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 21Z OVER FORECAST               
AREA. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND                 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.                
WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN              
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...AS DAYTIME                
HEATING HAS SCOURED OUT MID DECK OVER FORECAST AREA. WILL UPDATE                
FORECAST TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING AND SKY CONDITION TRENDS.                  
&&                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE UPPER             
MIDWEST.                                                                        
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHWEST MN TO                
EASTERN NEB AND THE TX PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN            
CONUS. WIDE FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BETWEEN                
THE TWO. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FUELING A              
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEB/KS/OK EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAKER              
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRODUCING A              
FEW -SHRA FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO MO. TEMPS AGAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS               
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND IN THE              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.                                                   
30/00Z GFS/NAM LOOK TO HAVE A COUPLE OF MINOR INITIALIZATION ERRORS             
BUT OFFER QUITE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT. PER WV              
IMAGERY...NEITHER MODEL LOOKED STELLAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
INITIALIZED OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. NAM INITIALIZED THE                
300-250MB JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH 10-                
15KTS TOO WEAK. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 30/00Z SHOWED THE 29/00Z              
NAM/GFS RUNS VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM...WHILE THE 28/00Z RUNS            
WERE TOO WEAK/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. THRU                 
36HRS MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A COMPROMISE OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.             
GFS SHOWS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ITS 29/00Z RUN. FOR            
36-60HRS MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A COMPROMISE OF THEIR                   
EARLIER RUNS. FOR 60-84HRS THE TREND IS A BIT SLOWER...MORE CLOSED              
500MB LOW THAN THE EARLIER GFS RUNS...BUT GFS OTHERWISE OFFERS                  
REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z            
SHOWED BOTH NAM/GFS WITH GOOD DEPICTIONS OF THE SFC MASS FIELDS...              
WITH EDGE TO NAM ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV             
IMAGERY...GFS LOOKED BETTER WITH ITS STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER UT/                
WESTERN CO...BUT APPEARED TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A                  
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN NEB. NAM LOOKED BETTER HERE INTO EASTERN MT/             
SOUTHERN SASKAT. A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00Z-06Z              
PRECIP ACROSS THE CONUS...AS WAS THE CASE FOR 18Z-00Z. WITH BETTER              
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ITS 29/00Z RUN...AND APPARENT BETTER                  
INITIALIZATION/HANDLING OF JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES...LEANED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION THIS CYCLE. HOWEVER...FAVORING             
NAM OR GFS OVER THE OTHER LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER THRU FRI NIGHT. SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE                 
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.                                                             
IN THE SHORT TERM...ONE BETTER CHANCE /LIKELY-HOOD/ OF SHRA/TSRA                
WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW IMPACTS THE AREA                  
CENTERED ON TONIGHT. SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT ROTATES AROUND THE                  
DAKOTAS LOW AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK/MODERATE THETA-E                
CONVERGENCE AND SOME SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE. 925-850MB MOISTURE               
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AS WELL.            
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND PW/S IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE...EVEN THE                    
WEAK/MDT FORCING SHOULD GENERATE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AS THE                      
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE THRU THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP SFC-            
850MB LAPSE RATES AND MDT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MINIMAL CIN                
AGAIN TODAY...THUS DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD AGAIN HELP INITIATE SOME              
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS MORNING...THEN               
RAISED THEM TOWARD CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.             
DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE...AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS...SPREAD ACROSS               
THE AREA FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST            
TRENDED RAIN CHANCE DOWN THU AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. WITH                
DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING/LIFT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE              
THU NIGHT. THIS BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF             
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO HOLD LATER                 
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST THU NIGHT. WITH LIGHT                
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
THU NIGHT...FOG A CONCERN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND ADDED             
PATCHY WORDING TO GRIDS FOR NOW. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN               
CENTERED ON FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER LAYERED                 
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF IT ARRIVE. ANOTHER SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT                 
ALSO SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. WITH INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS ON              
TIMING...RAISED FRI NIGHT POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR NOW. IF GOOD MODEL             
TIMING/CONSENSUS CONTINUES FRI NIGHT POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE              
TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY/CATEGORICAL BY LATER SHIFTS. MAY NEED TO                  
WATCH FRI NIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL WITH THE DEEPER                
FORCING/LIFT.                                                                   
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS SIMILAR FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND                     
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. FAVORED BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THU AND                 
FOR LOWS THU NIGHT. GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.             
TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
AND THICKENING CLOUDS.                                                          
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE            
REGION THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE              
MEAN AND UKMET TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF/OPERATION                 
GFS. WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE AREA...RAISED SHRA/ISOLD              
TSRA CHANCE A BIT ON SAT AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.                
PREVIOUS GRID-SET IS DRY FOR SUN...BUT IF SLOWER ECMWF IS MORE                  
CORRECT...SHRA CHANCE AND COOLER HIGHS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SUN.                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLIDE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA IN                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE                  
CENTERED ON MON. THIS PRESENTLY WELL TRENDED IN THE SUN NIGHT THRU              
TUE FORECAST GRIDS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RRS                                                                             
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
358 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH                
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED              
JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE WIND SHIFT                
LINE.  REAL SURFACE FRONT TRAILS THIS AND CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING               
MHK WITH GUSTIER NWLY WINDS BEHIND IT.  ANOTHER VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN            
IN RUC ANALYSIS OVER SW KS AT MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD              
THIS EVENING.  WOULD APPEAR THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF INITIAL             
UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF INITIAL SURFACE               
WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING WILL BE                    
CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN KS...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY                 
FARTHER WEST.  AS PRECIP CLEARS OUT OF EASTERN KS THIS EVENING...A              
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT.  THAT COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES            
AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY              
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
RIDGE MOVES EWD ON THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION              
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INDICATES AT LEAST SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP                 
DURING THAT TIME.  BOTH NAM AND NGM RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING               
PRECIP INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS MUCH            
SLOWER.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN POP CHANCES FROM GFS AND NAM MOS                  
GUIDANCE WITH 40 TO 50% DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO.  HAVE TENDED TO            
GO TOWARD LOWER POPS FROM GFS AS MAIN LIFT WOULD AT MOST AFFECT NC              
KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                        
GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM VARIOUS MODELS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE                 
SIMILAR...AND CONSISTENT WITH GOING FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE                 
THERE.                                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL                 
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A            
SECONDARY 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHERN PLAINS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AROUND THE BASE              
OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. DEEP GULF MOISTURE OVER OK AND NORTH TX                
WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS KS THURSDAY NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE                    
APPROACHING 5H TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A LINE OR             
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS THURSDAY                  
NIGHT. THIS LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS              
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE                 
FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY                   
SATURDAY...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE FRONT EAST OF               
THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ATTM I LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE GFS             
AND KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON             
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL             
THREAT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK              
OF THE MCS OR COMPLEX THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND             
THE EXACT TRACK OF ANY DEVELOPING MCS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE                  
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. ATTM I WENT MID TO UPPER                 
70S...THOUGH IF WE SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE                
AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH TEMPS COULD BE UP NEAR 80 DEGREES.                         
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 5H LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST               
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A 5H RIDGE WILL                
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE EAST KS WITH              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THOUGH ANY MINOR DISTURBANCE EMENDED             
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR                 
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.                                                            
WEDNESDAY...THE 5H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST                
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST            
TO THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE                     
FORECASTED MID 80S...POSSIBLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THOUGH IF WE                
BEGIN TO GET DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS EASTERN KS MIXING DEPTHS             
COULD BE LOWER AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WHILE SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN            
KS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO MORE THAN VCTS IN TAF FOR FOE AND TOP FOR             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                   
FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR FOG HAVE LEAD ME TO A TEMPO 1 TO 2 SM VSBY                
FROM ABOUT 8 TO 12Z.  WHILE CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT IS FORECAST               
FROM GFS AND NAM TONIGHT...LOWEST LEVEL MIXING RATIOS INCREASE OFF              
THE SURFACE OR STAY STEADY OVER THE LOWEST 25 MB OR SO...SO DENSE               
FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  PRECIP CHANCES MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON BEYOND 18Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NC            
KS ANYWAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
249 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT WAS WELL TO THE EST OF THE CWA            
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. 17Z               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES CUT OFF LOW TO THE NORTH             
OF THE CWA OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.                                              
NAM HAD A FEW INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS...AS IT WAS TO WEAK WITH JET              
STREAK AT KGJT AND WAS ALSO SEVERAL DEGREES TO WARM WITH H85 COLD               
AIR MASS AT KGGW. THE GFS ERRORS WERE OVERALL SMALLER. MODEL                    
DIFFERENCES SMALL EARLY...BUT NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF              
H5 LOW...WITH SREF SUPPORTING THE GFS AND INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS               
WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION.                                                    
TONIGHT...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS AFTERNOON               
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LITTLE                    
INHIBITION. WILL KEEP GOING LOW POP FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE                  
EVENING. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY                      
DRIVEN...SOME INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT IN                   
PRESENCE OF WEAK H7 WAA. AM GOING TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE                  
NORTH OVERNIGHT...IN CASE EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SATURATES THE MID            
LEVELS ENOUGH TO REALIZE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER.                            
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF H5                
LOW THROUGH THE DAY. SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE                           
AREA...PROVIDING A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL                       
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MOISTURE RETURN AFTER            
TODAYS FROPA...BUT WITH TD`S STILL IN THE 50S...AND RELATIVELY COLD             
AIR ALOFT DO THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE THAT BIG OF AN              
ISSUE. H5 WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 60KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND               
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LONG...FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.              
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 00Z              
AS LOW LVL JET BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. GFS HAS STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE           
OF LLJ ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE (11-13 G/KG)                
MIXING RATIOS FEEDING INTO THIS AREA. SREF NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS           
OPER GFS...BUT STILL SHOWS H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA             
AS LATE AS 06Z. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TSRA WOULD FORM ALONG THE                 
TROUGH AND RAPIDLY MOVE EAST...BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND                  
POTENTIAL NOSE OF LLJ BEING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THINK THAT                  
PRECIP POTENTIAL MAY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UPPED POPS TO HIGH              
CHANCE CATEGORY. IF LLJ/FRONT INTERACTION DOES BEGIN ACROSS THE                 
NORTH...MAY HAVE HYDRO ISSUES ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG MID             
LEVEL FLOW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING FASTER THAN THE LAST FEW                
DAYS...THIS COMBINED WITH OVERALL UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP ME FROM                 
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.             
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY  OUT OF THE AREA       
BY FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING MOST OF THE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH                
ALONG WITH IT. H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IN               
THE MORNING...SO PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING PERIODS BUT SHOULD            
QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER FROPA.                                             
EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH H5 FIELDS THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE. GFS              
ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO SUPPORT ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS AND WILL              
LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION.  MAIN CONCERN FOR PERIOD WILL BE                        
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.             
THINK WARM UP MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS MODEL              
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS IDEA OF  MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SETTING UP IN THE               
AREA DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION             
OF H5 RIDGE AND RESULTING WARMING TEMPS. WHILE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES             
SUPPORT THE FLATTENING RIDGE BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LATEST              
GFS KEEPS FLOW VERY MUCH AMPLIFIED. AM NOT GOING TO FOLLOW LATEST               
GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL WARM UP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TUE-WED.              
.AVIATION...STRATOCUMULUS AT KGLD/KMCK BASED AROUND 3500 FEET WILL              
DISSPIATE AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST                   
COLORADO. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TSRA COULD CONTINUE PAST SUNSET                
THERE...BUT WILL NOT INDICATE ANY IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.                    
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON               
WHEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP.                               
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
246 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION UNDER               
A -18 TO -20C 5H COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA EARLY                 
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
BASED ON SAT AND RADAR TRENDS APPEARS THE THE BETTER                            
DEVELOPMENT OF CU IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NAM/RUC 5H VORT LOBE                
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE                
TO MONITOR THIS BUT AT THIS TIME PLAN IS TO INSERT ONLY SMALL                   
10-15 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS VORT LOBE AS IT CROSSES THE                  
CWA. AFTER THIS ALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR UPPER              
LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVING VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE               
WORK WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES AND JET STREAKS PROGGED TO MOVE AROUND              
THIS SYSTEM WITH ONE OF WHICH PLACES SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO SEEING                 
NICE 85-7H WA AND MOISTURE ADV ACROSS SW LATE IN THE DAY WITH PROB              
OF CAPES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG PROGGED BY SREF IS GREATER THAN 70               
PERCENT BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST             
IS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE WITH PCP SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE               
THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF TSRA THURSDAY NIGHT.                    
ON FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE A FRONT IN OR NEAR OUR CWA AS YET ANOTHER             
S/W TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS                 
WESTERN KANSAS. LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN            
WITH MODELS DISAGREEING ON TIMING AND LOCATION AT 00Z SAT. AS A                 
RESULT WILL FOLLOW GENERAL CONSENSUS AT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE                   
ENTIRE AREA EARL FRIDAY WITH HIGH CHC POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.                     
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF                 
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN                 
GREAT PLAINS.  AS LONG AS THIS UPPER FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE                   
MIDWEST STATES...THEN THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST              
FLOW PATTERN WITH EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST            
KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND PROBABLY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.                
THE MAIN CHALLENGE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM            
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FROM THE WEAKENING/DEPARTING MIDWEST                     
LOW/TROUGH...TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AS VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET                 
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.                                
IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL              
EVOLVE.  THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY BLOCKY LOOKING                  
PATTERN NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN IN                    
FACT...WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES              
WELL INTO CANADA.  THE DAY 6-7 ECMWF MODEL FROM THE 30/00Z RUN                  
SUGGESTS THAT THIS BLOCKING WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SUFFICIENT              
FLOW WILL LIKELY CUT THROUGH THE OMEGA BLOCK SUPPORTING FAVORABLE               
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SETTING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                    
EPISODES (ROUGHLY JUNE 5-8 TIME FRAME).                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO MAJOR CHALLENGES FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS                  
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY               
VEER FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE                  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WEAKEN TO 7 KNOTS OR LESS AS WE HEAD                
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. BY 12Z OR SO THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS                  
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 12-15 KNOTS AS WEAK              
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO MISSOURI.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  53  77  58  76 /   0  40  40  30                                           
GCK  53  77  57  75 /  10  40  40  20                                           
EHA  54  78  59  78 /   0  30  30  20                                           
LBL  54  79  59  79 /   0  30  30  20                                           
HYS  51  76  58  75 /  20  40  50  30                                           
P28  54  79  61  79 /  20  40  50  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/25/25                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/THU)...                                                    
MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW OVER             
THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND              
THE LOW THRU THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. TO THE E...THE WRN GREAT             
LAKES REGION IS WITHIN DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW BTWN THE MIDLEVEL LOW               
AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE COVERING THE SE STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.             
WITHIN THE FLOW...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM THAT             
WILL AFFECT UPPER MI THRU AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SHRA/TSRA HAVE ONCE            
AGAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE              
FCST AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. RECENT ANALYSIS                 
SHOWS MLCAPE NEAR 1000J/KG IN THAT AREA.                                        
SINCE THERE ARE NO APPARENT SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THIS              
EVENING...EXPECT ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITH              
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SO...WILL AGAIN                
TRANSITION TO A DRY FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR W. STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING            
THRU NEBRASKA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT TO WARRANT CHC POPS             
AGAIN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE NIGHT. CONSIDERED ADDING A MENTION             
OF FOG...BUT WITH 15-20KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SEEMS UNLIKELY             
FOG WILL BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBY. SHOULD BE            
MORE OF AN AVIATION ISSUE WITH 3-5SM TYPE VSBY. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ON            
THE KEWEENAW WHERE SFC WIND FIELD MAY HAVE A LIGHT UPSLOPE ESE                  
COMPONENT AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE WIND WILL ALSO             
BE OCCURRING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS. SHOULD BE                 
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH MINS IN MOST LOCATIONS NOT LWR THAN THE LWR             
60S.                                                                            
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PINWHEEL TOWARD UPPER MI THU EVEN THOUGH                
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL/WRN DAKOTAS. ALONG WITH THE             
SHORTWAVE...AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL ALSO PUSH W INTO UPPER MI.              
SHORTWAVE/SFC TROF SHOULD PROVIDE A NICE FOCUSING FOR GREATER                   
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. GFS/NAM TIMING IS SIMILAR...SUGGESTING PCPN              
THREAT WILL REACH THE W IN THE MORNING AND THE CNTRL BY AFTN. ONCE              
AGAIN...STABILIZATION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SRLY FLOW MAY LIMIT SHRA             
POTENTIAL E OF MARQUETTE/ESCANABA LINE. ALSO...SINCE SHORTWAVE WILL             
BE LIFTING MORE N THAN E...FORCING FARTHER E WILL BE WEAKER. INITIAL            
THOUGHT WAS TO LEAVE THE ERN FCST AREA DRY THRU THU AFTN...BUT WILL             
JUST KEEP LWR CHC POPS THERE FOR NOW. MODIFIED GFS FCST SOUNDING FOR            
A SFC T/TD OF 77/60F YIELDS SBCAPE AROUND 700J/KG. HOWEVER...IT IS A            
BIT UNCERTAIN HOW WARM IT WILL GET BEFORE SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE SINCE                
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF PCPN. BEST                
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40KT (SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SVR                  
CONVECTION) LAGS JUST BEHIND SFC TROF AND EXPECTED AREA OF                      
SHRA/TSRA. NONETHELESS...IT IS CLOSE AND SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL THAT A            
FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SVR CRITERIA IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.            
LATER FCSTS WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS.                     
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEHIND AND EXITING                      
SHORTWAVE...WITH DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER              
PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING...MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN ZONES                   
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  WITH A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FEW                         
CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT THE LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF            
THE AREA.                                                                       
OUR MEANDERING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME                
COURSE UNTIL SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY            
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME                    
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS COME SATURDAY                 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND NAM.              
THE NAM HAS CONTINUED TO BE QUICKER THAN A MAJORITY OF THE OTHER                
MODELS AND AS A RESULT...HAVE THROWN IT OUT AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.                 
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO 00Z SATURDAY THERE ARE FEW LARGE SCALE                       
DIFFERENCES AND HAVE INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM SOLUTION INTO THE             
FORECAST.                                                                       
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON A SIMILAR PAGE...EJECTING OUT THE                
500MB LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN IS ALSO ON               
ITS OWN.  IT KEEPS THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS               
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME...NOT REALLY MOVING IT OUT              
UNTIL LATE MONDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 20KT) WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD                
UNDER A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. FOG WHICH WILL BE DENSE AT                
TIMES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE                
WEEKEND AS THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR               
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)...                                                     
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY THE W             
HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCNTY                 
THUNDER AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A            
FOCUS FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE KEWEENAW                     
PENINSULA. LEFT OUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT KSAW FOR NOW.                
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF                  
DAYTIME HEATING. FOG MAY THEN BECOME AN ISSUE LATE                              
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT EITHER TAF SITE            
DURING TEH AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BROUGHT VSBY DOWN MORE AT KCMX (1SM)             
THAN AT KSAW AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LIGHT UPSLOPE ESE FLOW               
THERE OVERNIGHT. DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THU SHOULD BRING A BETTER              
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO BOTH TAF SITES. TIMING IS A BIT                      
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB GROUP TOWARD THE END OF TAF            
PERIOD AT KCMX. PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEYOND 18Z AT KSAW.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...ROLFSON                                            
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)...                                                     
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY THE W             
HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCNTY                 
THUNDER AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A            
FOCUS FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE KEWEENAW                     
PENINSULA. LEFT OUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT KSAW FOR NOW.                
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF                  
DAYTIME HEATING. FOG MAY THEN BECOME AN ISSUE LATE                              
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT EITHER TAF SITE            
DURING TEH AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BROUGHT VSBY DOWN MORE AT KCMX (1SM)             
THAN AT KSAW AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LIGHT UPSLOPE ESE FLOW               
THERE OVERNIGHT. DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THU SHOULD BRING A BETTER              
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO BOTH TAF SITES. TIMING IS A BIT                      
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB GROUP TOWARD THE END OF TAF            
PERIOD AT KCMX. PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEYOND 18Z AT KSAW.                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF            
OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT. THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS WITHIN               
DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW BTWN THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE             
COVERING THE SE STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE             
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT UPPER MI THIS AFTN. IT HAS BEEN            
A DRY MORNING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AND THERE ARE ONLY SOME                    
MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS UPPER MI.                                        
SINCE THERE ARE NO APPARENT SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THIS              
AFTN...WILL NEED TO RELY ON AFTN INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA                      
DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED 12Z KGRB SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED SFC T/TD OF             
85/57F THIS AFTN CAN GET PARCELS JUST PAST A CAP AROUND 600MB...AND             
IT YIELDS SBCAPE OF ABOUT 400J/KG. IF SFC DWPTS WERE TO REMAIN NEAR             
CURRENT 60F READINGS...SBCAPE WILL BE UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. EVEN IF              
CAPE RISES TO THOSE LEVELS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KT                  
(SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN.            
AS FOR SHRA COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PCPN FREE FCST FOR THE E            
WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE. HOWEVER...WILL NEED              
TO WATCH THAT AREA CLOSELY AS WEAKER SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP                        
STABILIZATION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE LAYER MORE LIMITED THAN                 
YESTERDAY. ALSO...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE               
MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES TO PROVIDE             
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TO THE W...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD              
DEVELOP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TOWARD FAR NRN BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES            
AND PERHAPS TOWARD THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA SHOULD END UP             
BEING THE FOCUSING AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE                   
MID/LATE AFTN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA WITH TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF                 
PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE E. SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLPD OVER MAINLY THE             
W HALF OF THE CWA YDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK SHRTWV/H5 THERMAL TROF/             
PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES HAS PRETTY MUCH WANED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG.            
SINCE WARM FNT E OF LO ARND INL IS TO THE N...JUST A FEW LINGERING              
SHRA ARE GOING OVER THE W...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLD                 
FARTHER E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...00Z DVN SDNG DEPICTS A DRIER                      
ATMOSPHERE (PWAT 1.01 INCH) THAT AT GRB (PWAT 1.33 INCH). DEEP                  
MIXING TO H75 ON THIS SDNG WOULD CAUSE SFC DWPT TO DROP TO ARND 50              
(VS ARND 60 OVER THE FA NOW). IN FACT...VERY LTL IF ANY CNVCTN DVLPD            
IN THIS AREA YDAY. OAX SDNG IS ALSO DRIER THAN MPX (PWAT 1.35 INCH              
VS 1.61 INCH AT MPX)...BUT NOT AS DRY AS DVN. OTRW...MORE VIGOROUS              
CNVCTN IS ONGOING OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF MORE POTENT              
SHRTWV/100KT H3 JET MAX OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES ROTATING ARND SRN                
FLANK OF NEARLY CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHCS OVER THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPR LO IN THE PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E.                  
FOR TDAY...GFS/NAM SHOW DEEP SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLUGGISH CUTOFF LO IN            
THE NRN PLAINS. AS STRG SHRTWV ROTATING ARND SYS THIS MRNG DEEPENS              
THE UPR LO OVER SD TDAY...UPR RDG AXIS FCST TO SHARPEN OVER THE UPR             
LKS. SINCE H925-85 FLOW FCST TO BACK A BIT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING               
PRES TO THE W...EXPECT LLVL TRAJECTORIES TO COME FM THE DRIER SOURCE            
NR DVN. SINCE H925 FLOW IS ALSO FCST TO BE SLGTLY DIFFLUENT AND H5              
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN YDAY (ARND -10C VS -12C)...SUSPECT                
SHRA/TSRA COVG TDAY WL BE LESS THAN YDAY. BEST CHC WOULD SEEM TO BE             
OVER THE W CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MSTR AND WHERE LK                
BREEZES MIGHT LOCALLY ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC. SINCE PRES GRADIENT/H925              
SSW WIND IS FCST TO BE WEAKER TDAY THAN YDAY...LK BREEZE FORMATION              
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TDAY. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT POPS OVER THE              
CNTRL AND RESTRICT MENTION OF 30-40 POPS TO W OF THE HURON MTNS/MQT             
TO IRON RIVER. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR IWD AT 18Z FOR 80/57                  
YIELDS MLCAPE OF 400 J/KG (COMPARED WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG             
YDAY). MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS NR 83              
AWAY FM LK MODERATION.                                                          
TNGT...FA PROGGED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR OF OCCLUDED LO IN THE NRN            
PLAINS. SINCE WARM FNT WL BE TO THE N...THINK PCPN CHCS WL BE                   
MINIMAL AFT DIURNAL HTG WANES. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WEAK                 
SHRTWV GFS LIFTS N WELL E OF CLOSED LO IN THE NRN PLAINS. THIS                  
SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN            
ONLY A FEW -SHRA FM MID CLD DECK UNDER THIS SYS. SINCE UKMET/NAM                
ALSO SHOW THE MOISTENING DEPICTED BY THE GFS...HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN             
POPS TNGT OVER ALL BUT THE E...WHERE MOISTENING IS FCST TO BE LESS              
SUBSTANTIAL. SINCE INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST (FCST             
SSI GENERALLY AOA 0C)...DOWNGRADED POTENTIAL OF TS TO SCHC IN THE               
ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMICS. OTRW...INCRSG MSTR/CLD COVER WL RESTRICT             
DIURNAL TEMP FALL...SO TENDED TOWARD THE HIER ETA MOS NUMBERS.                  
LOOKS LIKE SHRA/TSRA CHCS WL INCRS ON THU ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF            
AS GFS/NAM/UKMET/CNDN ALL INDICATE A SHRTWV ROTATING NWD ON THE ERN             
FLANK OF PARENT CLOSED LO STILL STUCK IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO              
NW WI LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING 80KT H3 JET MAX. GFS/             
NAM FCST SDNGS SUG QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV             
THAT IMPACTS THE FA TNGT WL LINGER THRU THE DAY BEFORE ARRIVAL OF               
THIS SYS...SO DESTABILIZATION SHOULD NOT BE SGNFT. MODIFIED GFS FCST            
SDNG FOR 75/60 YIELDS MLCAPE APRCHG 600 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
GENERALLY UNDER 25-30 KT AND HI WBZ > 12K FT WITH MARGINAL                      
INSTABILITY SUG SVR THREAT MINIMAL. HOWEVER...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP             
TO LIKELY OVER THE W HALF THU AFTN AFT LOWER CHC POPS EARLIER.                  
GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY SLOTTING             
BEHIND LIFTING SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE FA SW-NE THU NGT. WL DIMINISH             
THEN END POPS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THE NGT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.            
THEN WENT DRY ON FRI MRNG BEFORE INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCRS               
AGAIN IN THE AFTN OVER THE W WITH SLOW APRCH OF VORTEX FM THE NRN               
PLAINS. CONSIDERING TREND TOWARD SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE                  
CUTOFF...WL KEEP FRI DAY ALL DAY OVER THE E.                                    
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY BACK WEST              
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH             
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON                 
SATURDAY WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS                  
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15KT AT THE BUOY. OVER THE WEST               
HALF OF THE LAKE...AS IS TYPICAL IN SOUTHERLY WIND REGIMES OVER A               
VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY              
NEAR THE MINNESOTA SHORELINE. FOR THE MOST PART... GENERALLY LIGHT              
WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE THROUGH              
AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE               
AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER UNDER SHARP INVERSION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...KC                                                            
MARINE...DG                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)..                                                      
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY THE W             
HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCNTY                 
THUNDER AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A            
FOCUS FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE KEWEENAW                     
PENINSULA. LEFT OUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT KSAW FOR NOW.                
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF                  
DAYTIME HEATING. FOG MAY THEN BECOME AN ISSUE LATE                              
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT EITHER TAF SITE            
DURING TEH AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BROUGHT VSBY DOWN MORE AT KCMX (1SM)             
THAN AT KSAW AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LIGHT UPSLOPE ESE FLOW               
THERE OVERNIGHT. DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THU SHOULD BRING A BETTER              
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO BOTH TAF SITES. TIMING IS A BIT                      
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB GROUP TOWARD THE END OF TAF            
PERIOD AT KCMX. PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEYOND 18Z AT KSAW.                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS AFTN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF            
OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT. THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS WITHIN               
DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW BTWN THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE             
COVERING THE SE STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE             
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT UPPER MI THIS AFTN. IT HAS BEEN            
A DRY MORNING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AND THERE ARE ONLY SOME                    
MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS UPPER MI.                                        
SINCE THERE ARE NO APPARENT SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THIS              
AFTN...WILL NEED TO RELY ON AFTN INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA                      
DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED 12Z KGRB SOUNDING FOR AN EXPECTED SFC T/TD OF             
85/57F THIS AFTN CAN GET PARCELS JUST PAST A CAP AROUND 600MB...AND             
IT YIELDS SBCAPE OF ABOUT 400J/KG. IF SFC DWPTS WERE TO REMAIN NEAR             
CURRENT 60F READINGS...SBCAPE WILL BE UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. EVEN IF              
CAPE RISES TO THOSE LEVELS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KT                  
(SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN.            
AS FOR SHRA COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PCPN FREE FCST FOR THE E            
WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE. HOWEVER...WILL NEED              
TO WATCH THAT AREA CLOSELY AS WEAKER SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP                        
STABILIZATION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE LAYER MORE LIMITED THAN                 
YESTERDAY. ALSO...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE               
MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES TO PROVIDE             
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TO THE W...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD              
DEVELOP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TOWARD FAR NRN BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES            
AND PERHAPS TOWARD THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA SHOULD END UP             
BEING THE FOCUSING AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE                   
MID/LATE AFTN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA WITH TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF                 
PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE E. SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLPD OVER MAINLY THE             
W HALF OF THE CWA YDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK SHRTWV/H5 THERMAL TROF/             
PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES HAS PRETTY MUCH WANED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG.            
SINCE WARM FNT E OF LO ARND INL IS TO THE N...JUST A FEW LINGERING              
SHRA ARE GOING OVER THE W...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLD                 
FARTHER E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...00Z DVN SDNG DEPICTS A DRIER                      
ATMOSPHERE (PWAT 1.01 INCH) THAT AT GRB (PWAT 1.33 INCH). DEEP                  
MIXING TO H75 ON THIS SDNG WOULD CAUSE SFC DWPT TO DROP TO ARND 50              
(VS ARND 60 OVER THE FA NOW). IN FACT...VERY LTL IF ANY CNVCTN DVLPD            
IN THIS AREA YDAY. OAX SDNG IS ALSO DRIER THAN MPX (PWAT 1.35 INCH              
VS 1.61 INCH AT MPX)...BUT NOT AS DRY AS DVN. OTRW...MORE VIGOROUS              
CNVCTN IS ONGOING OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF MORE POTENT              
SHRTWV/100KT H3 JET MAX OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES ROTATING ARND SRN                
FLANK OF NEARLY CLOSED LO OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHCS OVER THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPR LO IN THE PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E.                  
FOR TDAY...GFS/NAM SHOW DEEP SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLUGGISH CUTOFF LO IN            
THE NRN PLAINS. AS STRG SHRTWV ROTATING ARND SYS THIS MRNG DEEPENS              
THE UPR LO OVER SD TDAY...UPR RDG AXIS FCST TO SHARPEN OVER THE UPR             
LKS. SINCE H925-85 FLOW FCST TO BACK A BIT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING               
PRES TO THE W...EXPECT LLVL TRAJECTORIES TO COME FM THE DRIER SOURCE            
NR DVN. SINCE H925 FLOW IS ALSO FCST TO BE SLGTLY DIFFLUENT AND H5              
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN YDAY (ARND -10C VS -12C)...SUSPECT                
SHRA/TSRA COVG TDAY WL BE LESS THAN YDAY. BEST CHC WOULD SEEM TO BE             
OVER THE W CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MSTR AND WHERE LK                
BREEZES MIGHT LOCALLY ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC. SINCE PRES GRADIENT/H925              
SSW WIND IS FCST TO BE WEAKER TDAY THAN YDAY...LK BREEZE FORMATION              
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TDAY. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT POPS OVER THE              
CNTRL AND RESTRICT MENTION OF 30-40 POPS TO W OF THE HURON MTNS/MQT             
TO IRON RIVER. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR IWD AT 18Z FOR 80/57                  
YIELDS MLCAPE OF 400 J/KG (COMPARED WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG             
YDAY). MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS NR 83              
AWAY FM LK MODERATION.                                                          
TNGT...FA PROGGED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR OF OCCLUDED LO IN THE NRN            
PLAINS. SINCE WARM FNT WL BE TO THE N...THINK PCPN CHCS WL BE                   
MINIMAL AFT DIURNAL HTG WANES. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WEAK                 
SHRTWV GFS LIFTS N WELL E OF CLOSED LO IN THE NRN PLAINS. THIS                  
SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN            
ONLY A FEW -SHRA FM MID CLD DECK UNDER THIS SYS. SINCE UKMET/NAM                
ALSO SHOW THE MOISTENING DEPICTED BY THE GFS...HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN             
POPS TNGT OVER ALL BUT THE E...WHERE MOISTENING IS FCST TO BE LESS              
SUBSTANTIAL. SINCE INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST (FCST             
SSI GENERALLY AOA 0C)...DOWNGRADED POTENTIAL OF TS TO SCHC IN THE               
ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMICS. OTRW...INCRSG MSTR/CLD COVER WL RESTRICT             
DIURNAL TEMP FALL...SO TENDED TOWARD THE HIER ETA MOS NUMBERS.                  
LOOKS LIKE SHRA/TSRA CHCS WL INCRS ON THU ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF            
AS GFS/NAM/UKMET/CNDN ALL INDICATE A SHRTWV ROTATING NWD ON THE ERN             
FLANK OF PARENT CLOSED LO STILL STUCK IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO              
NW WI LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING 80KT H3 JET MAX. GFS/             
NAM FCST SDNGS SUG QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV             
THAT IMPACTS THE FA TNGT WL LINGER THRU THE DAY BEFORE ARRIVAL OF               
THIS SYS...SO DESTABILIZATION SHOULD NOT BE SGNFT. MODIFIED GFS FCST            
SDNG FOR 75/60 YIELDS MLCAPE APRCHG 600 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
GENERALLY UNDER 25-30 KT AND HI WBZ > 12K FT WITH MARGINAL                      
INSTABILITY SUG SVR THREAT MINIMAL. HOWEVER...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP             
TO LIKELY OVER THE W HALF THU AFTN AFT LOWER CHC POPS EARLIER.                  
GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY SLOTTING             
BEHIND LIFTING SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE FA SW-NE THU NGT. WL DIMINISH             
THEN END POPS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THE NGT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.            
THEN WENT DRY ON FRI MRNG BEFORE INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCRS               
AGAIN IN THE AFTN OVER THE W WITH SLOW APRCH OF VORTEX FM THE NRN               
PLAINS. CONSIDERING TREND TOWARD SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE                  
CUTOFF...WL KEEP FRI DAY ALL DAY OVER THE E.                                    
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY BACK WEST              
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH             
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE             
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON                 
SATURDAY WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS                  
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15KT AT THE BUOY. OVER THE WEST               
HALF OF THE LAKE...AS IS TYPICAL IN SOUTHERLY WIND REGIMES OVER A               
VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY              
NEAR THE MINNESOTA SHORELINE. FOR THE MOST PART... GENERALLY LIGHT              
WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE THROUGH              
AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING ONCE SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE               
AND MOISTENS THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER UNDER SHARP INVERSION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...KC                                                            
MARINE...DG                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1204 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUDS THINNED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A DRY SLOT                  
PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS                   
STEADILY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST...WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR                   
IMPACTS TO THE CWA. THE LINE OF STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY. BREAKS IN           
THE CLOUDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN A FEW SPOTS...SO RAISED             
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...IN AREAS ORIENTED ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE.              
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH HAD NOT PROGRESSED NORTH MUCH...SO BEST RAIN            
WAS STILL JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO              
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...SO ONLY A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT           
RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS POINT.            
RUC SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT OF               
COURSE THE BEST OF EVERYTHING IS STILL WEST. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY              
CHANGES TO THE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE VALUES WERE HIGH. SHOWERS CONTINUE           
TO POP UP AROUND THE CWA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT VALUES FOR              
NOW. ADJUSTED WORDING FOR COVERAGE. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND               
1.5IN PW...BUT A DECENT DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 30-40KTS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HELP               
BRING MORE OF THE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MAY ADD A FEW LINES            
TO THE HWO ABOUT STRONG STORMS...COULD SEE SOME GOOD WINDS IF THE               
SQUALL LINE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. LAPSE RATES WERE NOT TOO                   
STEEP...SO WILL FOCUS ON WINDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS OK.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH          
SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DIRECTION OF THE COMPLEX TO THE WEST AND              
ITS INTENSITY IF IT REACHES THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN SHRA AND VCTS              
FOR GLH/GWO/JAN AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP SIMILAR TIMING AROUND 21Z.             
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA...SO WILL MAINTAIN              
VCTS FOR HBG ALSO. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE             
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP SHRA IN AT ALL SITES THROUGH           
THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOG                 
TONIGHT ALSO. WINDS PICKED UP IN A FEW SPOTS...NOT EXPECTING                    
CONDITIONS TO REACH ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS 10-15KTS WITH               
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE                          
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP            
EARLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE                     
PERIOD...SO WILL BRING SHRA BACK INTO ALL SITES AROUND 13Z.                     
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN MAY           
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY...BUT OVERALL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE               
3KFT AND WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z AT MOST SITES. MAY ADD              
LOWER CLOUDS BRIEFLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       81  66  81  66 /  71  50  48  21                                  
MERIDIAN      78  64  81  64 /  64  46  38  15                                  
VICKSBURG     84  67  83  66 /  90  50  46  22                                  
HATTIESBURG   78  67  80  66 /  80  53  52  23                                  
NATCHEZ       81  67  82  66 /  81  50  47  22                                  
GREENVILLE    82  67  83  65 /  91  49  36  16                                  
GREENWOOD     80  67  83  66 /  81  47  40  15                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
7                                                                               
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
411 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM                 
CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND ATTENDANT SEVERE POTENTIAL.             
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW                  
CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH SEVERAL            
VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THE SURFACE COLD             
FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...NOW RUNNING ROUGHLY                   
NORTH/SOUTH FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW                
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA AS A VORT LOBE            
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SUBSIDENCE                 
BEHIND THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN PERIODS OF BRIEF CLEARING OVER THE              
CWA...WITH STRATOCU FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.                                  
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE                          
DAYS...CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN                    
QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY             
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAKE IT EAST INTO THE CWA. THE             
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE THAT SOME WEAK SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE            
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND WITH            
SUPPORT FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SOUTHEAST                           
MOVEMENT...HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING                
HOURS. WITH FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS/STORMS                
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECLINE BEFORE MAKING IT THIS FAR                         
EAST...DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH SHOWERS VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS.                    
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL               
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW AND SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS                 
SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH              
MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                
EVENING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY                
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL              
COMPENSATE FOR THIS TO PRODUCE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER               
SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE                 
CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPS                 
ALOFT ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A SURFACE                 
BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH               
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE.             
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE              
LOWER TO MID TEENS BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER HEATING SOMEWHAT.                
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY THE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.                   
INITIALLY THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO PUSH THROUGH THE            
REGION.  SOME POSSIBILITY WITH THIS FRONT FOR SEVERE                            
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EARLY ON                
FRIDAY.  MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NEXT TUESDAY AND                
WEDNESDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE VARYING THE PATTERN OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME PER 12Z GFS...TO A                 
LARGE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE DIFFERENCE            
IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS HUGE FOR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST SOLUTION               
WOULD BE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND HOT...WHILE THE SECOND SOLUTION            
WOULD BE WET AND COOLER.  AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN EITHER                  
SOLUTION IS LOW AND WILL INSERT A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT KEEP                 
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND MEAN UPPER LOW OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL              
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE              
NORTHEAST AS WELL...AND BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE                
KGRI TERMINAL AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL BE IN THE VICINITY               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM                
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH          
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF BROKEN               
CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU FILLS IN...BUT THEY                  
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN                
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. NEXT                   
IMPACT WILL BE SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD               
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE COVERED WITH A PROB GROUP FOR NOW AS                
EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE STORMS WILL GET INTO THE AREA REMAINS                  
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
315 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF EVENT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UPCOMING...              
AND PLAYING THE WAITING GAME RIGHT NOW.                                         
SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 3500 ALREADY...WITH THE 18Z              
RUC SHOWING EVEN BETTER INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP HAS               
HELD SO FAR...BUT CU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. MAY BE A FEW MORE                  
HOURS...BUT THINK AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...MAY QUICKLY                 
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE? FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
DRAPED BETWEEN SWEETWATER AND ABILENE...WITH SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED               
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN                   
EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALSO WATCHED THE VERY BACK EDGE OF AN OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARY CREEP INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.                
COULD SEE THE STORMS DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG ANY OF THESE                        
BOUNDARIES...BUT AREAS ACROSS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BIG                     
COUNTRY PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY. THEN WE WILL SEE IF A MORE                    
WIDESPREAD COMPLEX CAN END UP FORMING.                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASH OUT. CAP SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER              
AND SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT GETTING SOME SORT OF                
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO BREAK THROUGH THE REMAINING CAP MAY STILL                
BE TOUGH. WILL NEED TO SEE WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND               
WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL END UP.                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                          
PLAINS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH. HARD TO                  
RULE OUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH EITHER                 
STUFF DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ROLLING IN                               
SATURDAY... SUNDAY...OR EVEN MONDAY NIGHT...OR AT LEAST SHOVING                 
BOUNDARIES DOWN OUR DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...WITH BETTER ODDS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  68  88  68  86 /  30  20  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  68  91  68  89 /  30  20  20  10                                    
JUNCTION  71  89  68  87 /  30  10  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...OVERALL REDUCED POSSIBILITIES IN THE TAFS OF                        
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM                   
DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KSJT TO KJCT. WILL CONTINUE                
TO MENTION ONLY A PROB30 AFTER 03Z FOR KABI AND KBBD AS THESE                   
LOCATIONS IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE                  
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE OTHER TAFS AS WE ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT.                
MAY NEED TO AMEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WINDS               
WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH               
THE AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN KSWW AND KABI WILL BE SLOW               
TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL NEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOP                
ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL FROPA...WINDS WILL BE RATHER                     
VARIABLE.                                                                       
BRAZZELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                        
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST                  
FOR THE DAY AS THIS AREA IS IN THE MUCH STRONGER CAP AND DOUBT                  
ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF A STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO                
TO SAN SABA LINE. ALSO PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE TIL AFTER 21Z AS WE HAVE              
TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND GET THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH               
FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING THIS                      
AFTERNOON...RUC FORECAST CAPES TO BE 4 TO 6 THOUSAND J/KG AND                   
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. SO WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SEVERE                
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ALSO                     
COOLED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHERE CLOUDS AND                   
OUTFLOWS AND SOME FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE               
COOLER. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE AND               
LESS EFFECTS FROM CLOUDS...OUTFLOWS AND FRONT...HAVE INCREASED                  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. UPDATES TO FLY SOON.                                     
BRAZZELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN015-025 ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 30/17Z ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER                    
30/17Z. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG                  
COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND THEN STALL OUT. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL                 
DEVELOP ACROSS BIG COUNTRY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AFTER 30/20Z. ISOLD                
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS               
AFTER 30/20Z.  21                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AMARILLO AT 3 AM LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH                       
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WITH A EXTRA              
PUSH FROM OUTFLOW FROM STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN                 
OKLAHOMA. WITH WRF SB CAPES OF 4000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE                
BIG COUNTRY...MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION                  
SEVERE IN BIG COUNTRY ZONES TONIGHT. WRF MODEL HANGS UP FRONT                   
ALONG I-20 TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY...BUT ACTUAL                   
POSITION DEPENDS ON CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY                  
DRIVE IT SOUTHWARD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON DRYLINE                
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN CROCKETT COUNTY AND THE WESTERN CONCHO               
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING. THIS A                 
LESS LIKELY...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. CAP HAS BEEN HARD TO ERODE THE                
LAST COUPLE DAYS...EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE LITTLE/NO CAP BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UNSTABLE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON                  
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW                       
BOUNDARIES WILL INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES...BUT BEST CHANCES AROUND 30             
PERCENT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY.                                       
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE                     
WEEKEND. MAY SEE EVENING OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE                   
MOUNTAINS AND PANHANDLE...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOW LEVEL                    
FLOW. CHANCES OF IT REACHING THE BIG COUNTRY OR FURTHER SOUTH                   
INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY ARE LOW EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                        
MORNING...BUT POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS           
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES                 
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS                
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  85  68  88  68 /  30  30  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  92  68  91  68 /  10  20  20  20                                    
JUNCTION  92  71  89  68 /  10  20  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/27/99                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY                                            
218 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
OBLONG SHAPED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGH PLAINS THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PIECE ROTATING TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH                   
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WYOMING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY                        
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVED INTO NORTHERN WYOMING EARLIER THIS                  
MORNING AND HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE AFTERNOON                     
PROGRESSED. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS                      
AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING. BIG HORNS              
AND JOHNSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL               
COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE SECONDARY VORT LOBE TO MOVE INTO               
WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE                 
STATE THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO KEEP                   
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING DECENT               
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BACKING INTO JOHNSON COUNTY. THIS SHOULD                    
BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA BEGINNING                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHIED AWAY FROM INCREASING POPS TOO MUCH AS                 
THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING DECENT QPF TO THE AREA THIS MORNING                 
AND GOT NOTHING. SO WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS PROGRESS                   
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOIST FLOW CONTINUES INTO                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                   
UPPER LOW FINALLY TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY AS NEXT                     
PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST. NORTHWEST TO              
NORTH FLOW REMAINS OVER WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE                     
BEGINNING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. SO WILL                
KEEP THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE.                
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO REMAIN COOL EAST OF THE                  
DIVIDE...WHILE WARMING TO NEAR NORMALS WEST AND SOUTHWEST.                      
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH              
MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. LOW LEVEL                    
FORCING WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR MOUNTAINS. THUS KEEPING THE ISOLATED               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST SAT AND                
SUN. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER WY ON MONDAY AS A NEW TROUGH                  
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. AGAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN                
CONVECTION IN THE WEST SEEMS REASONABLE. GFS IS FASTER ON TUE WITH              
MOVING A PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A                 
COLD FRONT INTO NW WY TUE PM. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF                 
ANY FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL TUE NIGHT. WILL PLAY SLOWER SOLUTION FOR                 
NOW AND KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN MTS                 
AND THE BIG HORN MTS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF                     
SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WED WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION. IF THE GFS IS              
ON TARGET IT WOULD BE MOSTLY DRY NEXT WED. WILL TACKLE THAT                     
TONIGHT AND LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...STILL                    
THINKING IT WILL GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO                  
GOING FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.              
SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND              
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A REPEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE                   
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. HAVE LEFT -TSRA OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION IN NORTHERN TWEB ROUTES. CURRENT              
RUC FORECASTS INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO REMAIN                
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO                 
KCPR. A BETTER NORTHERLY SURGE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE DIVIDE                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PINWHEELS AROUND UPPER                
LOW. THIS HAS NECESSITATED SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS             
WHILE KEEPING -SHRA CONFINED TO SAME AREAS AS TODAY. VFR CIGS AND               
VSBYS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE                     
LOCALIZED MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY OVER             
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL NOTE FOR A NON-TAF                  
SITE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST SURFACE             
WIND AROUND KBYG TO 25G40+ KTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY                   
MOIST NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER                
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE           
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND THURSDAY.                
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SHERIDAN AND JOHNSON              
COUNTIES TODAY AND TOMORROW. OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH...MOSTLY DRY               
AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND LOWERING RH`S AS WELL.                  
&&                                                                              
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TWB                                                                
LONG TERM...AR                                                                  
AVIATION...CNJ                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...TWB                                                              
</pre> wy