AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1205 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MEANS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SOUTHEAST                   
CALIFORNIA TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND JUST A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THERE TO ABOUT PHOENIX              
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THIS            
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST                
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING               
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX BACK WEST ACROSS THE DESERT             
AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER.           
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE DAILY THREAT OF MAINLY HIGHER                 
TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THERE WERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN GILA                 
COUNTY EARLIER THAN USUAL LATE THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS             
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS             
AREA. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE                    
DEVELOPING THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE                  
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE                 
ISSUING SOME SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOOD             
WARNINGS FOR ZONE 24 INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON              
AND/OR THIS EVENING.                                                            
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MEANS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SOUTHEAST                   
CALIFORNIA TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND JUST A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THERE TO THE GREATER                
PHOENIX AREA TODAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5                     
TO 10 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST AND                
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES WERE                 
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST              
HIGHS FOR TODAY.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL                
NOTEWORTHY FEATURES. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW STRETCHES FROM                   
COLORADO SW TO YUMA...WHILE THE INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE                   
CONTINUES OVER W-CNTRL TX. THIS TIME YESTERDAY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT            
TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THAT             
HAS NOW TURNED TO THREE...WITH GENEVIEVE THE LATEST ADDITION (AND               
SANDWICHED BETWEEN FAUSTO TO THE WEST AND DOLLY TO THE EAST). IN THE            
SHORT TERM... HOWEVER...WE`LL KEEP OUR ATTENTION ON THE HIGH CENTER             
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER TEXAS THAT              
IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH SONORA MEXICO WED/THU.                  
TODAY...WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS...TD/S OUT WEST HAVE DROPPED                   
CONSIDERABLY WITH PWATER DOWN AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER COMPARED             
TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A             
FAIRLY DEEP LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD OF             
COURSE EXPLAIN THE DRYING. FOR THE CENTRAL DESERTS...FCST SOUNDINGS             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATE THIS DRIER AIR OUT WEST WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHUNK OF DRYING SEEN             
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE FCST KPSR RAOB PROFILE. THE NAM TELLS THE            
DRIEST STORY WITH A MEAN MIXING RATIO DOWN AROUND 8.5 G/KG...                   
COMPARED TO THE MUCH MORE MOIST RUC THAT HANGS ONTO NEARLY 14 G/KG.             
THE GFS (AND SUBSEQUENT LOCAL GFS BASED WRF MODEL) ARE SOMEWHERE IN             
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...WHICH IS WHAT WE`VE SETTLED ON FOR THE               
FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER                       
LEVELS...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 700-500MB               
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY. A NELY FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR             
BRINGING CONVECTION OVER THE RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH                
INTO THE LOWER NORTHERN VALLEY FLOORS...BUT WHETHER WE`LL BE ABLE TO            
FIRE OFF ANY STORMS IN THE DESERTS IS STILL A QUESTION (GIVEN THE               
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS). POPS/FCST REFLECT A                  
PRETTY LOW CHANCE FOR VALLEY SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY...INCREASING RATHER            
DRAMATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE               
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGH PWATERS OVER THE ERN CWA...THE              
MAIN THREAT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP             
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPS...WE CAN EXPECT                  
ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF WARMER TODAY OVER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE            
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.                                
WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE                    
INVERTED WEST TEXAS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY                    
WESTWARD. PREVIOUS MODELS (AND FCST THINKING) WERE LEANING HEAVY ON             
A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED AND WED NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING             
A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WED OVER TODAY...BUT NOT CONVINCED ITS             
GOING TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS/FCSTS            
WERE CALLING. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS OVER THE GREATER             
PHOENIX AREA...KEEPING THE HIGHER CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND                      
EAST...CLOSER TO WHERE THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE TROF WILL SCOOT               
THROUGH SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AND ONCE AGAIN...THE                
MAIN THREAT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE HEAVY                  
RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING...BUT FCST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION            
OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS REMAINS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH             
AT THIS POINT IN TIME.                                                          
THURSDAY...WE`LL HANG ONTO A LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BASICALLY                 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE VALLEY.             
TEMPERATES AS A RESULT COULD VERY WELL STRUGGLE TO REACH 100/101                
ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERTS LOCALES...AND CURRENT FCST REFLECTS THIS.            
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD BE IN FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT            
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY              
MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS.            
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST THAT ITS BEST              
TO CONTINUE A LOW/MOD GRADE MONSOON PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE                  
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPS RUNNING A DEG OR SO COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR               
THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...KPHX/KIWA AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...                  
WITH MOISTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONVECTION STARTS UP            
EARLY TODAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED STORMS...TOPS NEAR 45KFT...TO BE AROUND 35 MILES EAST              
OF KIWA BY 20Z...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF KPHX             
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...UP TO              
35 KTS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS IF               
THEY MOVE INTO THE DESERT ELEVATIONS WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO              
AROUND 7KFT AGL WITH STORMS VICINITY KIWA. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO                 
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 05Z...THEN DIMINISH WITH            
CLOUD DECK SCT-BRK AROUND 12KFT UNTIL AROUND 08Z WEDNESDAY.                     
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...KNYL/KBLH AND KIPL...              
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS               
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FOLLOWING DIURNAL                   
PATTERNS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.                                                 
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE CA THROUGH                     
WED...WITH MIN RHS DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT IN SPOTS. FURTHER                  
EAST...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.            
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/WANEK                                                        
AVIATION...MEYERS                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH                                                           
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
857 AM MST MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS              
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON                
FLOW REGIME...WITH DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN AREAL COVERAGE OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING AND RATHER COMPLICATED DAY ON TAP FOR SE              
AZ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RELOADED NICELY AFTER THE COMPLETE                   
WORKOVER WE RECEIVED SAT NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE QUITE WARM ALOFT WITH              
500MB TEMPS AT -3.5C...WE HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A                     
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF ONLY 90F...A PRECIP WATER STILL NEAR 2 INCHES...             
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALREADY. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FOR 94/60                 
YIELDS A VALLEY CAPE NEAR 2000J/KG WITH A NARROW ASPECT RATIO AND A             
FREEZING LEVEL UP NEAR 16KFT. THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A RECIPE FOR               
PRETTY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS...EXCEPT WE HAVE ALMOST ZERO             
FLOW OR SHEAR ALL THE WAY UP TO 300MB...AND ABOVE THAT OUR FLOW IS              
SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. RECENT SAT LOOPS AND 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW               
THAT THE UPPER HIGH HAS SPLIT IN TWO...WITH THE MAIN CENTER OVER NW             
CO BUT A SECONDARY ONE OVER SE AZ. RUC AND INCOMING 12Z WRF-NAM SHOW            
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE OVER W PIMA COUNTY AND ALONG THE            
NM/AZ BORDER...SO THOSE AREAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED THAN THE HEART            
OF OUR CWA. ELSEWHERE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO FLOW...INITIAL THOUGHT IS             
THAT TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE VERY              
PULSEY...THUS SHORT-LIVED IN ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER WHERE THEY               
FORM...THEY WILL DUMP. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE FOR THE TSTMS TO                  
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND CLUSTER/PROPAGATE INTO THE VALLEYS...IT               
MAY BE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY HIGH CENTER OVER US                  
WEAKENS AND THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR E NUDGES CLOSER TO IMPART AT             
LEAST A LITTLE E OR ENE FLOW. SO WILL LEAVE THOSE POPS ALONE FOR NOW            
AND SEE HOW THE DAY EVOLVES. FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...THOUGH...               
WILL RESTRUCTURE GRIDDED POPS AND QPF A BIT TO INCREASE THE                     
MOUNTAINS AND WEST...WHILE DECREASING THE VALLEYS AND HOLDING THE               
FAR E CWA AS-IS. HWO HANDLES THE SITUATION PERFECTLY...SO WILL LET              
THAT RIDE...TOO. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ALL              
THE DETAILS EXPLAINED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING ON SCHEDULE...WITH            
CU ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED             
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE WITHIN VFR CRITERIA FOR THE             
MOST PART...BUT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS COULD EASILY DROP TO              
IFR CRITERIA RAPIDLY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF                   
AMENDMENTS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...BY TUESDAY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE                
AXIS SHOULD SHIFT BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST FROM NORTHERN BAJA INTO             
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER WEST              
TEXAS WILL BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.                
STEERING FLOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE FROM THE NE-E. BY WEDNESDAY WE               
SHOULD SEE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SETUP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS               
THE MUCH WEAKENED INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND             
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS FEATURES SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY FOR             
WEDNESDAY...SO I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT DAY.                          
BY THURSDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING              
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO.                   
MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DRIFTS BACK TO A POSITION OVER              
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY                    
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SETUP A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF            
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT COULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE               
REGION. BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS             
START TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER SRN             
ARIZONA/NORTHERN SONORA...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE               
HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A DRIER NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA...WHILE THE EURO WOULD KEEP A WETTER SOUTH              
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION WITH                    
SCATTERED POPS MOST AREAS...ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.                 
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE 1 TO             
2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL            
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PYTLAK                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE                                                       
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF SEVERE                  
WEATHER MONDAY WILL FILL AND EXIT INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS                    
MORNING. WITH A JET STREAK AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING INTO                     
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER                    
LOW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL                 
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY NORTH OF GERLACH. AS FAR AS                      
SEVERITY...WHILE WIND SHEAR ALOFT REMAINS STRONG...INSTABILITY IS               
WANING ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL FORECASTS SO ANY STORMS MAY TEND TO               
TEAR APART SOMEWHAT AND/OR REMAIN MODEST IN STRENGTH.                           
AS FAR AS FLASH FLOODING...WITH FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS I AM                  
NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...I HAVE CANCELLED             
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE HOURS EARLY TO COINCIDE WITH THE                 
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                       
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THIS MORNING...THE REGION WILL SETTLE                 
INTO A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES                  
WILL SLOWLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS                 
WINDING UP 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. SNYDER                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
MODELS STILL SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH                   
SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN             
AND EASTERN ZONES.  CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO               
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY HELPING TO TURN OUR FLOW SOUTHERLY              
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA                   
COAST.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND                
EASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.  MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE TIMING                
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC...THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER            
IN EJECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY                       
AFTERNOON.  WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS            
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR ZONES DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE INCREASES               
ACROSS THE AREA.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT             
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.                            
UPPER WAVE FLATTENS PUSHES RIDGE EASTWARD AND TURNS OUR FLOW                    
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONO            
AND MINERAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.  CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS                    
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY TURNING             
THE FLOW ONCE AGAIN MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.  INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN             
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                  
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING TO               
NEAR 100 THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WHILE THE HIGH SIERRA             
WILL REACH THE MID 80S.  THINGS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND                 
LOWER 80S IN THE SIERRA. MOZLEY                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND LOVELOCK WHERE                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.                   
QUIET DAY AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS OFF            
THE SIERRA. BRONG                                                               
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN EAST              
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS SHOWN BY LATEST RADAR LOOPS. SOME                  
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. NO STORMS             
YET OVER THE PLAINS. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF            
MOUNTAIN STORMS INCREASE BY THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT             
SCATTERED POPS THERE. HARD TO SEE ANY SIGN OF A SHORTWAVE ON                    
SATELLITE WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE COVERAGE. AS FOR PLAINS...               
AIRMASS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED THOUGH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING              
CIN ALL BUT GONE. ALSO...ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING VERY MINIMAL                
CIN. SO...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PLAINS                
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW                    
PROVIDING A BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN WELD...MORGAN AND CENTRAL ADAMS             
COUNTIES. CUMULUS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE            
PAST HOUR. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IN                  
ADDITION...OUTFLOW FROM MOUNTAIN STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR             
CONVECTION. THOUGH RUC KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE QPF OVER THE                
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS SPREAD SOME QPF OVER THE                    
PLAINS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...WILL UP THE EVENING POPS TO 30                   
PERCENT FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. CURRENT                     
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND NINE TENTHS OF             
AN INCH...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. STEERING            
WINDS ARE LIGHT...SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL              
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...             
THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE                     
MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN EXCEPT               
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST INTO EASTERN                    
COLORADO. THIS COULD BRING MORE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS OUR                
AREA. IN ADDITION..LATEST NAM SHOWING A BATCH OF QG ASCENT IN THE               
700-500 MB LAYER ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN INCREASING                    
CONVECTION CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS            
PLAINS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED POPS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH               
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AROUND SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE              
MOUNTAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS.                     
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW LITTE CHANGE FROM TODAY`S                  
PATTERN. HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN A BIT MORE CLOUD             
COVER. GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE            
PLAINS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN LINE                
WITH GUIDANCE...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.                     
.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE                    
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM             
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THIS PATTERN.             
BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE                   
AREA...LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK             
THE CAP ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND WE`LL              
BE BACK TO THE SAME OLD PATTERN OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF SHORT WAVE            
PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN               
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS. WILL HOLD FROM INCREASING THE POPS FOR THIS            
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z...WHICH                 
COULD AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS.  GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN                   
POSSIBLE IF STORMS TRACK OVER THE AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
PREVAIL. SOUTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH               
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE BY 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                  
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.                   
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
D-L/MEIER                                                                       
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                           
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE SPINNING JUST NORTH OF OUR GEORGIA ZONES. IN FACT...THE               
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTH THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INFLUENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                     
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL                  
FORECAST AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE RESIDES THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS               
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CARRY                  
INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LARGE CAPE DENSITY                
VALUES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONCERNS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALSO RESULT               
IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA               
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...HAVE                 
DECIDED TO BUMP EVENING POPS UP A LITTLE...INTO THE 40 TO 50                    
PERCENT RANGE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.                                           
EAST COAST SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL                   
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO                 
BRUSH THE AREA AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH                   
WHICH WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850MB WIND                
MAXIMA WILL APPROACH 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND 850                   
TROUGH AND THIS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP                      
CYCLONIC FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL                
ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS                      
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT                  
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND REALIZED INSTABILITY. CAPES               
WILL PROBABLY BE HELD MUCH BELOW TODAYS VALUES GIVEN THE EXTRA                  
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS               
ARE A DECENT BET GIVEN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.                             
BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN. THE NAM                
AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS                
IS MUCH MORE BULLISH (40 TO 60 PERCENT) OPPOSED TO THE NAM                      
SOLUTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. THE NAM ADVECTS IN MUCH                  
DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN NORTHWEST FLOW                  
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS              
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION              
TO INITIATE ALONG MESOSCALE (SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW) BOUNDARIES.                     
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                          
LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING                   
WEEKEND. IT SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST                    
ATTEMPTING TO DIG BACK DOWN ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA ONCE                       
AGAIN...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH IN TOW. THIS WOULD                    
RESULT IN ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH POPS HIGHER THAN CLIMO                
VALUES. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS FOR NOW BUT                
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE ON THE                 
LOW SIDE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO THUNDER AT ALL SITES THRU THE                  
AFTN...WITH VCTS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING. MAY BE SOME FOG IN RECENT            
RAIN AREAS TONIGHT AND EVENING SHIFT CAN EVALUATE FURTHER FOG                   
MODIFICATIONS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS             
SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  73  95  71  94 /  30  40  40  30                                           
SSI  77  92  75  89 /  40  40  40  30                                           
JAX  74  93  73  91 /  40  40  40  30                                           
SGJ  75  91  73  88 /  40  40  40  30                                           
GNV  73  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  40                                           
OCF  72  90  71  88 /  50  50  30  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHULER/CARROLL                                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
318 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY THIS            
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE PENINSULA...AND                 
WHILE TC DOLLY IS FAR AWAY OVER WESTERN GULF...SOME CIRRUS FROM                 
SYSTEM BEING CARRIED TOWARD FL VIA ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. LATEST WATER              
VAPOR IMAGES/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING SOME CONFLUENCE AND DRIER AIR              
ALOFT OVER REGION AT PRESENT AND 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM             
ARE INDICATING SOME LOWER PWAT AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN             
SECTIONS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODEL POPS COMING IN LOWER THAN                  
PREVIOUS RUNS. WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW SEA AND LAKE BREEZES TO              
FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK VORT ENERGY            
ROTATING DOWN BACK SIDE OF ATLANTIC TROF LATER TODAY TO HELP AID IN             
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE DISTRIBUTED POPS               
FROM SLGT CHC/ISOLATED NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS TO LOW END CHC/SCT             
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO EARLY               
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR. MORE WARM TEMPS ON TAP WITH SOME MID 90S             
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHILE SEA BREEZE ONSET              
SHOULD CAP MAXES NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 90S.                          
WED-MON...VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT IS                 
WOBBLING ABOUT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION WILL PUSH            
THE SURFACE RIDGE/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE UP AND DOWN THE PENINSULA. JUST            
HOW FAR THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY REMAINS A BIT TENUOUS.            
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD(S) SHOWED MOST OF             
THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEREFORE              
WENT WITH CLIMO POP  OF 30/40 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 20S OVERNIGHT            
WHICH DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM LATEST EXTENDED (MEX MOS) GUIDANCE.                
TEMPERATURES AROUND THEIR NORMAL HIGHS OF LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER              
80S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE STOPPING DAY TIME HEATING...              
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH ~18Z THEN TSRA PRODUCING CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS            
THROUGH 00Z WILL BE MORE COMMON INTERIOR TAF SITES AND HAVE TEMPO               
INDICATED INLAND SITES VERSUS A VCTS OR PROB30 EAST COAST LOCATIONS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS                
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON EACH              
DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH            
SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS            
ON THE AVERAGE 3 FEET OR LESS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL NOTED AT                
OFFSHORE BUOYS AND WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT RISK ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  93  74  89  72 /  20  20  40  20                                           
MCO  93  74  90  73 /  30  20  40  20                                           
MLB  89  73  89  71 /  30  20  30  20                                           
VRB  90  74  89  73 /  30  10  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO                                                    
LONG TERM....WIMMER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
921 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER GA/SC AND HAS                
GENERATED SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CTRL GA THAT                   
MOVED SOUTH INTO THE NRN PORTION OF OUR LOCAL AREA. THE RUC AND                 
NAM INDICATE THIS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL                 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. RADAR SHOWS THE STORMS CONSOLIDATING                  
OVER JEFF DAVIS COUNTY AND WEAKENING ON EITHER SIDE. THUS EXPECT                
THE STRONG ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM. A FEW                    
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY MOVES TOWARD              
THE AXIS OF THE MEAN LAYER TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FL...BUT THIS AREA               
WAS WORKED OVER EARLIER IN THE AFTN/EVENING.                                    
THE 00Z SOUNDING AT KJAX AND KTAE REVEAL THE 500 MB TEMPS HAVE                  
COOLED TO -8C FROM A WARM -5C DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSHPERE MORE                 
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NOT SURPRISING THEN THAT STORMS                       
DEVELOPED TALL CORES PRODUCING NUMEROUS HAIL REPORTS IN                         
SURROUNDING AREAS. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH               
PORTION THRU 03Z BUT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP                 
6SM HZ. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT                 
WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR TOWARD SUNRISE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KT AT GRAYS REEF AND THE                
ST. AUGUSTINE BUOYS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THAT COULD REQUIRE SCEC                   
HEADLINE. A SLY SURGE NEAR SHORE IS LIKELY DUE TO OUTFLOWS AND                  
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. SEAS ARE                 
RUNNING 2-3 FT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  74  98  73  92 /  40  30  40  50                                           
SSI  77  91  75  90 /  20  30  20  40                                           
JAX  75  95  74  90 /  20  60  30  50                                           
SGJ  76  92  74  89 /  20  50  30  50                                           
GNV  73  94  73  90 /  20  40  40  60                                           
OCF  73  93  72  89 /  10  40  30  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MKT/MZ/PK                                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
859 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT...BUT WILL                  
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A                 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL             
NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE GEORGIA ZONES FROM THE                
SOUTHWEST...SO I HAD TO UPDATE THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS A BIT                
EARLY. I RAISED POPS IN THE GEORGIA ZONES AND LOWERED THEM IN THE               
SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUC                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IN GEORGIA WILL GO ON UNTIL               
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE WINDING DOWN...AND THIS                   
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT O INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE THERE.          
I ALSO HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING TEMPS AND                    
CLOUDS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE              
IT APPEARS THAT A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST                
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE                    
TROUGH/FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION                  
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT                  
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 2-2.25                  
INCHES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LOSS OF                 
HEATING...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO                   
DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD               
BE IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS                      
CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON                
THURSDAY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND                   
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA. 12Z NAM PUSHES THE COLD                   
FRONT TO THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER BY THURSDAY                  
MORNING...BEFORE STALLING IT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY                  
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STALLED FRONT TO THE                    
GFS...BUT ALLOWS DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION                   
WITHIN THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE                     
SEASONAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOUTHERLY                
WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE                
AFTERNOON...WHEN INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE FORCING WILL BE                      
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                  
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.                         
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES                    
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER               
THE NORTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG               
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL                 
ENERGY WILL KEEP A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILE TO SPARK CONVECTION              
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FORCING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO                   
REPRESENT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POP SCHEME OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO MORE THAN A                
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.                                                        
GFS AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY BY LATE SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER              
WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE APPEARS TO              
BE SOME TIMING AND SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF               
AND GFS SOLUTIONS THAT LEND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE                 
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. HAVE OPTED TO                      
CONTINUE WITH A MORE GENERAL CONVECTIVE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS                 
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...UNTIL MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS ARE SEEN IN             
THE MODEL FORECASTS.                                                            
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES            
OF SEASONAL NORMS...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.                  
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 103 DEGREES THROUGH THE                
WEEKEND...WITH INDICES AS HIGH AS 105 IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FOR THE              
NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION                  
SHOULD AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                  
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KSAV. HAVE INCLUDE HAZE POTENTIAL FOR                  
KSAV AFTER 06Z...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE                    
POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHER THAN IN KCHS...YET KEPT VISIBILITIES VFR.                
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN                 
APPROACHING COLD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE                
MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE INCLUDED CB GROUPS FOR BOTH                      
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.                                                            
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS EACH MORNING                 
DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...OTHERWISE VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MARINE                  
ZONES WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH                     
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS                     
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4                  
FEET.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ALSHEIMER                                                                       
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
345 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS ON SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS IOWA                 
AND ASSOCIATED PROPAGATION AND TRENDS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS              
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION DEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST/LATER THAN ANTICIPATED               
FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH MCS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF EFFECTIVE              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB/IA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH 35 KNOT                  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED BY SHORT WAVE NOTED IN VAPOR                
IMAGERY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LATEST RUC/SPC MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE                
INDICATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MLCAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN                 
IOWA INTO CENTRAL IL..WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLED IN THE                 
LOW/MID 70S. THOUGH LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO VEER MORE WESTERLY                 
AND WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE               
TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WILL                    
LIKELY AFFECT ESPECIALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF WFO CHICAGO CWA.              
WITH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND LOCATION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY              
OF 40-50 KNOT 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME                
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS RUC/NAM/GFS ALL DEPICT                  
PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS MORNING. HAVE INITIALLY                  
DELINEATED MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVER                    
VALLEYS FOR HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING...DECREASING FAIRLY SHARPLY               
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE RFD/CHI METRO AREAS. WILL LIKELY MAKE                 
SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS                     
HOWEVER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE                   
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY                 
AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS                 
OUTFLOW SPREADS DOWNSTATE. MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTH ADDITIONAL                 
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MN THIS MORNING ALSO IN                    
ASSOCIATION WITH DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE. NAM INDICATES THIS                         
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL BY LATE                      
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NOT                  
NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
DO DEPICT ELEVATED CAPES ON ORDER OF 600-800 J/KG AND THUS WILL                 
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.                      
ONE OTHER WRINKLE THIS MORNING IS THAT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS                
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES HAD EARLIER               
BEEN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE                  
DENSE/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...AND WILL HANDLE                
WITH JUST A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THERE THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH UPPER RIDGE              
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND                      
RESULTING DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN                 
CANADA/CONUS. GOES VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL MID               
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES               
REGION INTO WEST SIDE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH NEXT 36-48                         
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SPORADIC QPF GENERATED BY VARIOUS MODELS ACROSS              
THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER MAIN AREA OF                       
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT...APPEARS                     
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION               
AS MID LEVEL COLD POCKET SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI/FAR NORTHERN                
IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS WILL ADD A LOW CHANCE POP                
FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                       
INTERSTATE 80 IN NORTHERN IL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                   
WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES               
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SPELL OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS               
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF                
RUNS SLOWING RETURN OF MOISTURE A BIT ON THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE                    
EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY HOWEVER...AS FAIRLY               
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED TOPPING WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVING                
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEEK. THIS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ANOTHER                  
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING SATURDAY AS                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN                
LAKES.                                                                          
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...COLD FRONT PUSHED QUICKLY INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL LATE                 
THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS ALONG THE SHORE. APPEARED THIS                  
WOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST                 
INDIANA. BUT FRONT HAS NOW SLOWED AND LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE                   
MAINLY OVER THE WATER...HAVING LIFTED SOME ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST                 
IL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THUS...HAVE REMOVED LOW CLOUDS FROM LATE                   
MORNING AMENDMENT. STILL COULD BE SOME IFR ALONG THE LAKESHORE                  
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED PERHAPS BKN 2-3KFT               
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE DIFFICULT BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO               
SLOWLY TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ONLY 10-15KTS. WINDS TURN                
MORE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN BACK NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING.                
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING                
BUT WILL LET NEXT FORECAST TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FOG POTENTIAL.                 
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO TUESDAY               
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME               
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT FORECAST. CMS                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
1252 PM...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE                
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE              
OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES              
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS                     
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CMS                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
726 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
714 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION.              
CAP IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND IS ALREADY STRONG ON TOP OF              
OUR STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO HEIGHTS/RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIFT NOTED ON SATELLITE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER                
TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH LESS IN THE EVENING AND MORE OVERNIGHT. KEPT                
THE AREAS OF FOG IN EVEN THOUGH NAM/RUC NOT AS AGGRESSIVE TONIGHT               
WITH FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...MODELS UNDERDID MOISTURE ADVECTION                
LAST NIGHT AND HAVE DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DID MINOR                    
TWEEKS ON OTHER ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                               
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7                   
DAYS.                                                                           
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE                        
INTERSTATE AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND BASED ON THE                
NAM (WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED THIS WELL ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN)                 
WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE               
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING.                                              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A               
BIT WHILE ALSO FLATTENING OUT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF                
THE AREA.                                                                       
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND            
100 BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING                   
CLOUDINESS WITH THE DEAMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES IN. BY THURSDAY LOW                
TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.                                                        
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS                   
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH                         
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 90S. TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITHOUT A STRONG              
SIGN OR AGREEMENT ON ANY DISTURBANCES TO KICK THEM OFF WILL                     
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                                    
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
714 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
UPDATE FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CAP HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE AREA WITH               
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN...AND WILL REMOVE WHAT LITTLE MENTION               
THERE IS OF CONVECTION FROM THE KMCK TAF.                                       
NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT.                
WITH FRONT AND EASTERLY WINDS TO STAY IN PLACE...WOULD THINK THAT               
A REPEAT IS IN STORE. BUT EVEN THE NAM/RUC WHICH GOT IT RIGHT LAST              
NIGHT IS NOT SHOWING ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MADE THE KGLD                
TAF MORE OPTIMISTIC...AND PUT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY                 
AT THE KMCK TAF. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THESE WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.           
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
553 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7                   
DAYS.                                                                           
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE                        
INTERSTATE AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND BASED ON THE                
NAM (WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED THIS WELL ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN)                 
WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE               
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING.                                              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A               
BIT WHILE ALSO FLATTENING OUT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF                
THE AREA.                                                                       
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND              
100 BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING                   
CLOUDINESS WITH THE DEAMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES IN. BY THURSDAY LOW                
TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.                                                        
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS                   
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH                         
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 90S. TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITHOUT A STRONG              
SIGN OR AGREEMENT ON ANY DISTURBANCES TO KICK THEM OFF WILL                     
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                                    
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
542 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CURRENTLY HAVE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM                  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.                  
WOULD THINK THIS WOULD BE A GOOD FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER               
PER LAPS AND SATELLITE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED                
ESPECIALLY ON TOP OF THE FRONT. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IN PLACE ALOFT               
AND ONLY GETS WORSE WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A               
RESULT AM PESSIMISTIC ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. LEFT THE              
MENTION OF CB IN THE KMCK TAF SINCE IT IS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.                 
NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT.                
WITH FRONT AND EASTERLY WINDS TO STAY IN PLACE...WOULD THINK THAT               
A REPEAT IS IN STORE. BUT EVEN THE NAM/RUC WHICH GOT IT RIGHT LAST              
NIGHT IS NOT SHOWING ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MADE THE KGLD                
TAF MORE OPTIMISTIC...AND PUT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY                 
AT THE KMCK TAF. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THESE WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.           
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A WEAK UPPER WAVE...AND PLENTY OF              
INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS.                 
WILL GO WITH CB FOR THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES AS                
THE CHANCES OF A TS IN THE AERODROMES SEEM REMOTE. WINDS SHOULD                 
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BY                 
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE              
00Z CYCLE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
65                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY                    
DISSIPATED. EASTERLY WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS KEEPING             
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN KTOP/KFOE TAFS.             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED EAST             
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.                       
STARK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PHILLIPS/GARGAN/STARK                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY                    
DISSIPATED. EASTERLY WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS KEEPING             
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN KTOP/KFOE TAFS.             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED EAST             
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. STARK                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1039 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE AS BETTER ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IN THE 310K LAYER MOVES TO THE EAST INTO MISSOURI.  THE WEAK               
CONVECTION NEAR COUNCIL GROVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT ROOTED ON THE TAIL              
END OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. SHORT TERM            
MODELS STILL SHOWS LOTS OF ML CAPE (3000-3500 J/KG) ACROSS ERN KS               
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME UNSTABLE AIR              
BELOW 700H. BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PROBABLY KEEP CONVECTION FROM             
REGENERATING OR BECOMING WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THIS                  
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.  COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA            
NEAR THE ALLEN AND WILSON CO LINE....SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS            
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WILL ALSO LEAVE A LOW POP INTO SOUTHEAST             
KS FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...AS BACKDOOR SURFACE BOUNDARY                 
DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AREA.  STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT MID LEVEL            
CAP KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP POP IN THE                  
SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR NOW.                                                        
THE MAIN CONCERN ELSEWHERE WILL BE HOT TEMPS. SOME AREAS WILL                   
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE                    
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A NICE DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH                  
SOME HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105.                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE.                                                          
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE MAIN               
CONCERN BEING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  WILL              
KEEP SOME MID LEVEL CEILING MENTIONED IN THIS AREA...AS WANING                  
CONVECTION STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA.  WILL NOT INCLUDE A            
VCTS MENTION EITHER FOR NEAR KCNU...BUT COULD SEE THIS ADDED LATER.             
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAF ISSUANCE:                                                               
SCT ACCAS CONTS TO DEVELOP OVER C & ERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING IN                
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 305-310K LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH                   
NEARLY STATIONARY 925-MB FRONT DRAPED IN NEARLY W-E MANNER OVER                 
THESE AREAS. SHRA/TSRA HAVE YET TO DEVELOP BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
CLOSELY. WITH STATIONARY FRONT LURKING ABOUT SCT-ISOLATED TSRA                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING OVER PRIMARILY NE KS WHERE                    
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ALMOST                
DUE S OVER MS VALLEY. WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE OVER C KS TO BE MORE               
ISOLATED IN NATURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP "VCTS" OUT OF KSLN FOR                  
TIME BEING.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  10  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
723 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF ACCAS AT 12 KFT HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING                
HOURS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW               
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN THE               
VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOE/TOP LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT              
AT SEEING AT LEAST VCTS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST                    
PROBABILITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. EASTERLY SFC WIND WILL BE                
THE DOMINANT VECTOR DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS                  
UNDER 12 KTS. BLAIR                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z TAF ISSUANCE:                                                               
SCT ACCAS CONTS TO DEVELOP OVER C & ERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING IN                
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 305-310K LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH                   
NEARLY STATIONARY 925-MB FRONT DRAPED IN NEARLY W-E MANNER OVER                 
THESE AREAS. SHRA/TSRA HAVE YET TO DEVELOP BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
CLOSELY. WITH STATIONARY FRONT LURKING ABOUT SCT-ISOLATED TSRA                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING OVER PRIMARILY NE KS WHERE                    
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ALMOST                
DUE S OVER MS VALLEY. WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE OVER C KS TO BE MORE               
ISOLATED IN NATURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP "VCTS" OUT OF KSLN FOR                  
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  20  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  20  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARING THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING BUT                    
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA SEEM LOW GIVEN MEAGER 850MB MOISTURE              
PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD THROUGH                
MUCH OF THIS CYCLE WITH SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION                   
DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THURSDAY WITH FRONT/OUTFLOW IN THE               
VICINITY...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.               
65                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN                 
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FURTHER                       
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT            
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES              
TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THIS                 
FRONT BACKS SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG STRATUS              
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THIS SCENARIO             
WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES PLANNED. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES                   
SUPPORT LOWERING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES                
WHERE A LULL IN DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN MOIST                 
EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL REGIME.  NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT               
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEIGHTED ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MLCAPE IS MAXIMIZED WITH MINIMAL CINH.                
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPRAWL OVER             
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER                     
90S/AROUND 100 EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE STALLED FRONT            
MAY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH            
SO LEANED A LITTLE COOLER TOWARD THE KMCK AREA. INCREASING H7                   
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION             
AND PULLED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH             
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE AN ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORM MAY DRIFT ENE OFF THE FAVORED TERRAIN OUT WEST. A COLD             
FRONT MAY SURGE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY...HOWEVER CAPPING CONCERNS AND              
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FRONT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. TRIMMED POPS TO THE FAR              
NORTHWEST ZONES GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS. HIGHS ON EITHER SIZE OF 100             
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                                                        
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL            
FOR KMCK. NAM/RUC SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 09Z.            
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS HAPPENING DUE TO DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE               
SPREADS VERY NARROW UPSTREAM WITH FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING. MODEL                 
GUIDANCE SAYS THERE IS POTENTIAL TO GO TO LIFR ON THE VISIBILITY.               
HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT FAR YET. SO KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY              
AND IFR CEILING. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE VFR AT KMCK FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE                    
PERIOD. AFTER 18Z THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA. AT THIS                 
TIME NOT CONFIDENT IS LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO PUT NO MENTION OF               
IT IN THE TAFS WITH THE KMCK TAF HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1058 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
824 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATED. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BECOME CAPPED                 
PER LAPS AND AREA SOUNDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET OR LIFT               
AT MID LEVELS SEEN SO LOOKS LIKE NO ELEVATED TSRA DEVELOPING LATER              
TONIGHT. BASED ON EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND                 
SAGGING COLD FRONT...INSERTED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST PLUS                 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW               
MORNING. ALSO ADJUST MINS UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHEAST AS                   
WELL. TWEEKED WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON                  
REALITY AND LATEST GUIDANCE.                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION              
CHANCES.                                                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE               
AREA (PRIMARILY) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                        
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VIA MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND              
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES               
WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SO FOR NOW              
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE SIDE AND GO FROM THERE.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE               
90S AND PROBABLY LOW 100S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM STILL TRYING TO              
SUGGEST SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARLY                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OUT OF THE                   
AREA. SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY STRATUS/FOG AND SOME AVIATION CONCERNS              
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY                 
UNTIL SOME CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE                       
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER              
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE                 
SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA. MONSOONAL                      
MOISTURE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL                     
PROMOTE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.                         
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL            
FOR KMCK. NAM/RUC SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 09Z.            
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS HAPPENING DUE TO DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE               
SPREADS VERY NARROW UPSTREAM WITH FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING. MODEL                 
GUIDANCE SAYS THERE IS POTENITAL TO GO TO LIFR ON THE VISIBILITY.               
HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT FAR YET. SO KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY              
AND IFR CEILING. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE VFR AT KMCK FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE                    
PERIOD. AFTER 18Z THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA. AT THIS                 
TIME NOT CONFIDENT IS LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO PUT NO MENTION OF               
IT IN THE TAFS WITH THE KMCK TAF HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.                        
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
548 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION              
CHANCES.                                                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE               
AREA (PRIMARILY) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                        
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VIA MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND              
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES               
WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SO FOR NOW              
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE SIDE AND GO FROM THERE.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE               
90S AND PROBABLY LOW 100S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM STILL TRYING TO              
SUGGEST SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARLY                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OUT OF THE                   
AREA. SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY STRATUS/FOG AND SOME AVIATION CONCERNS              
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY                 
UNTIL SOME CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE                       
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER              
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE                 
SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA. MONSOONAL                      
MOISTURE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL                     
PROMOTE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.                         
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
540 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TEDIOUS TAF FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
AT KGLD THE ENTIRE TIME. AT THIS TIME...KEPT BOTH TAFS TSRA FREE                
SINCE LOOKS LIKE LITTLE LIFT AND DRY AIR ALOFT TO KEEP VERY MANY                
IF ANY TSRA FROM FORMING. KMCK HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT ON THE VERY              
LOW END OF PROBABILITY. COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF KMCK IS                 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE             
WINDS. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS IF EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL                
PRODUCE STRATUS AND FOG AT KMCK. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN                  
DOING THIS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE RUC40/13. CHOSE TO KEEP                   
STRATUS IN BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR ALTHOUGH RAISED               
A LITTLE.                                                                       
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FEW BOUNDARY LAYER CU MAY DEVELOP WITH BASES              
OF 6,000 TO 8,000 FEET. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT OVER NE WILL                  
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH                 
18Z TUE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TAF SITES              
THIS EVENING BUT WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST                 
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. I PLACED IN A CB MENTION IN THE TAFS                  
IN CASE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE NEAR THE               
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED        
THUNDERSTORMS AT OR AROUND THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE               
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT PASSED FROM NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS LEFT                   
BEHIND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE                     
PROFILES STILL FAIRLY DRY WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP               
DURING THE DAY MINUS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SHORT DURATION OF                   
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING PER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRANSITIONING                
TO PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. INCOMING             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT MAY FIRE A FEW STORMS ALTHOUGH                    
CONFIDENCE AT TAF SITES IS RATHER LOW ATTM UNTIL NEAR THE END OF                
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BLAIR                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST              
WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE               
GREAT LAKES. RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS FOUND OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHER              
PLAINS HELPED TO SPARK CONVECTION ALONG THE 850 FRONT OVER NORTHERN             
NEB AND INTO IA. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT IS LOOSING STEAM AS IT MOVES SOUTH.                        
THE 06Z RUC SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WASHING OUT THIS MORNING AND             
LOOSING ITS IDENTITY. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC                 
FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z AND THE 06Z NAM HAS                
TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE               
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE               
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE TODAY TO              
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER            
90S. 850 TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE TO MUCH FROM YESTERDAY SO HAVE GONE                
WITH PERSISTENCE WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE             
GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE 850 BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHERN            
IA HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO DOWN PLACE CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.             
CONTINUED WITH POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST. GIVEN             
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE MODELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS              
IN THE LOWER 70S...THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH                 
OVERNIGHT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.                                     
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE FORECAST AREA             
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE BOUNDARY              
OVER THE AREA AND PWS INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE MID LEVELS WILL NOT TO SO WARM THAT THEY               
WILL CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 10C. BECAUSE OF             
THIS HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED CONVECTION.             
TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUIET AS WARM WITH AND EASTERLY WIND AND PARTLY             
CLOUDY SKIES. BUT THERE COULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPS DEPENDING             
ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 BEHIND THE                
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.               
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS CONTINUES            
TO SHOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE               
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST            
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME               
TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT POPS            
MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED BEYOND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE             
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GARGAN                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST              
WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE               
GREAT LAKES. RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS FOUND OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHER              
PLAINS HELPED TO SPARK CONVECTION ALONG THE 850 FRONT OVER NORTHERN             
NEB AND INTO IA. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT IS LOOSING STEAM AS IT MOVES SOUTH.                        
THE 06Z RUC SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WASHING OUT THIS MORNING AND             
LOOSING ITS IDENTITY. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC                 
FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z AND THE 06Z NAM HAS                
TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE               
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE               
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE TODAY TO              
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER            
90S. 850 TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE TO MUCH FROM YESTERDAY SO HAVE GONE                
WITH PERSISTENCE WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE             
GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE 850 BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHERN            
IA HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO DOWN PLACE CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.             
CONTINUED WITH POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST. GIVEN             
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE MODELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS              
IN THE LOWER 70S...THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH                 
OVERNIGHT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.                                     
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE FORECAST AREA             
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE BOUNDARY              
OVER THE AREA AND PWS INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE MID LEVELS WILL NOT TO SO WARM THAT THEY               
WILL CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 10C. BECAUSE OF             
THIS HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED CONVECTION.             
TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUIET AS WARM WITH AND EASTERLY WIND AND PARTLY             
CLOUDY SKIES. BUT THERE COULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPS DEPENDING             
ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 BEHIND THE                
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.               
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS CONTINUES            
TO SHOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE               
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST            
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME               
TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT POPS            
MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED BEYOND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE             
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL NEED TO                
WATCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN NEBRASKA BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS OR                 
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. HAVE ADDED A             
03Z GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW BUT            
WITH STRENGTH AND EXTENT STILL IN QUESTION DID NOT GO MORE THAN VCTS            
WITH CB.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
935 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SINCE 00Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR HAVE              
ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS             
VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE                     
NORTHWEST. RUC MODEL HINTS AT A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING               
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MARK THE                
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR. BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...EXPECT            
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO            
REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/...                     
FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM/TONIGHT/...CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING EFFECTIVE              
THETA-E AIR IMPINGING ON THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS                  
SHIELD FROM THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ALSO RETARD ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE IN             
LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO REACH CONVECTIVE VALUES                
THROUGH SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHWEST IN...NORTHWEST KY FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF THE AFTERNOON. TO HANDLE REMNANTS OF THE SERN MO MCS AND ISOLATED            
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING...I HAVE LEFT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10                         
PM...TAPERING RAIN CHANCES OFF RAPIDLY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 1             
AM WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...WIND FIELDS PER THE GFS/MOS GUIDANCE               
SUGGEST WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW WITH THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT. BY              
12Z THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE SHOULD BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN                 
BORDER COUNTIES OF MO/KY...WITH THE 925/850 MB FRONT CUTTING W-E                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING.                                                                        
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY SCOURED                       
OUT...AND THE SHORTWAVE SHEARING AWAY FROM THE WFO PAH FORECAST                 
AREA LATE TONIGHT...I DECIDED TO PULL ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE                 
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL                         
CONVERGENCE ZONE NEARBY AND WEAK WINDS...I DID...HOWEVER...ADD THE              
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST              
AREA.                                                                           
FOR WEDNESDAY...INSOLATION AND WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE                    
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND              
925/850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR                 
INFILTRATING THE AREA...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH                   
HIGHER THAN TODAYS RAIN-COOLED VALUES.                                          
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHARPER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL              
IMPINGE ON THE AREA...WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING/INCREASE OF                     
THICKNESS/MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MO/AR...SETTING              
UP THE STAGE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO MOVE BACK                  
ACROSS SERN MO LATER THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.                                
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK...THE WFO PAH FORECAST              
AREA WILL BE POISED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH                
FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEMI-PERMANENT                 
CYCLONIC VORTEX ROTATING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST                  
QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER                 
WRN TX/OK...ERN CO/NM. IN BETWEEN...THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WILL              
BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF PERIODIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS                
MOVING SEWD IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF RETURN FLOW BETWEEN                 
EACH SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF EACH              
SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE            
REGION THIS MORNING HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TONIGHT AS WELL. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH              
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS               
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KPOF AND POINTS FURTHER                
EAST. THIS COMPLEX MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO KCGI...BUT               
THUNDER IS VERY UNLIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS MAY FEEL A WIND SHIFT TO THE              
WEST OR NORTHWEST...AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST               
THROUGH THE REGION.                                                             
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER                
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...SO THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH IT             
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 06Z            
TONIGHT...IF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS FORECAST.                     
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 14Z WEDNESDAY...SO               
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG               
WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING.                           
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED EAST OF THE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS NORTHEAST WINDS BRING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. IN            
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WINDS               
MAY BE MORE VARIABLE...AS THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN             
IN THAT AREA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...DRS/SMITH                                                 
PREVIOUS LONG TERM....SMITH                                                     
AVIATION...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM                                                                     
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                          
REMNANTS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN                
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON. MCVS APPARENT ON SAT               
LOOP AS WELL AS TWO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST WEST OF OUR              
CWA. AT PRESENT...ACTIVITY SEEMS ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THIS                
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS CAPE INCREASES...TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RTMA              
SFC ANALYSIS IS ALSO PICKING UP ON GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ATTM EXPECT THE BULK OF            
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF EACH             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR              
AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
DECREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD PER LATEST VISIBLE                
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSPITE OF AN OVERCAST OF CIRROSTRATUS...THE                 
OVERALL OPAQUE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH LESS THAN THE NUMBERS THAT WERE IN           
THE SKY COVER GRIDS PREVIOUSLY...SO APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS WERE               
MADE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE HERE WAS DOWNGRADING A FEW OF THE ZONE                 
BREAKUPS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH                      
MID AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT                 
THROUGH 18Z...AS THERE SIMPLY ISNT ANYTHING HAPPENING ACROSS EASTERN            
KENTUCKY RIGHT NOW CONVECTIVE LY SPEAKING. STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS           
AND STORMS TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS               
ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. THE CIRROSTRATUS LAYER IS              
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY MUCH AT ALL SO FAR TODAY.             
THE 14 AND 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPS ARE              
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.            
MADE ADJUSTMENTS HERE PER THE TEMP TRENDS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING. ALSO RECALCULATED TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON THE CHANGES MADE           
TO DIURNAL TREND...WITH TODAYS HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE           
BOARD. CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE WEATHER           
AND QPF FORECASTS...BASED ON THE DECREASED POPS DURING THE LATE                 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE                 
STABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL REMOVE THE WATCH HEADLINE            
FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT BUT WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS             
FOR NOW AS IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL               
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS             
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF              
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
IT IS TOUCH TO GAGE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INITIAL MCS ONGOING TO            
OUR NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IS ACTUALLY                  
FAIRLY STABLE WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS LEFT OVER AFTER THE                  
CONVECTION EARLIER ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY JUST DELIVER A            
GLANCING BLOW AS THE EASTERN END PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN                     
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND THE WESTERN HALF DIVES SOUTH OR                      
REDEVELOPS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE            
STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MCS MAINTENANCE                   
PROBABILITIES BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS             
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AS              
IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA. WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE MCS EARLY               
THIS MORNING PRECIP WISE... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF DEBRIS                
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER            
OUT ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL MCS            
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE             
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT               
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WINDS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO NOTE TODAY IS THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE            
TEMPS WITH AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS AT JKL            
AND LOZ. GFS SEEMS TO BE WARMING THE AREA TOO MUCH AT 850 MB                    
POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVER DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. NAM IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE AMOUNT              
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. OVERALL... EXPECT READINGS TO COME IN SIMILAR             
TO YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES                 
COOLER UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.                              
WILL LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                 
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A MUCH DRIER             
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR ORDINARILY COOLER VALLEY                   
LOCATIONS AND KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANT ON THURSDAY.                             
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH ADVERTISING NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND AS REINFORCING NORTHERN            
STREAM ENERGY ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CUTOFF LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
EASTERN CANADA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM UNDER THE             
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING            
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                    
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY SEASONAL FOR            
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HPC NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN AND             
ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THESE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS HEADED FOR OUR SW                  
COUNTIES AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. HAVE TIMED THESE ACROSS KLOZ AND KSME            
AT MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEGINNING OF TAF VALID TIME. HAVE ONLY USED           
VCTS AT KJKL...WITH NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOT TAKING PLACE SO FAR.              
AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES            
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT IS MUCH MORE                 
QUESTIONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LOOK FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF                  
CONVECTION AS HEATING OCCURS AND A COLD FRONT MOVEST SOUTHEAST                  
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD SWEEP SE OUT OF THE STATE WITH              
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...MAINLY VFR           
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG             
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE/AR/RAY                                                         
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...HAL                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
136 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...UPDATED                                                           
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                          
REMNANTS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN                
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON. MCVS APPARENT ON SAT               
LOOP AS WELL AS TWO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST WEST OF OUR              
CWA. AT PRESENT...ACTIVITY SEEMS ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THIS                
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS CAPE INCREASES...TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RTMA              
SFC ANALYSIS IS ALSO PICKING UP ON GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ATTM EXPECT THE BULK OF            
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF EACH             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR              
AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
DECREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD PER LATEST VISIBLE                
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSPITE OF AN OVERCAST OF CIRROSTRATUS...THE                 
OVERALL OPAQUE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH LESS THAN THE NUMBERS THAT WERE IN           
THE SKY COVER GRIDS PREVIOUSLY...SO APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS WERE               
MADE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE HERE WAS DOWNGRADING A FEW OF THE ZONE                 
BREAKUPS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH                      
MID AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT                 
THROUGH 18Z...AS THERE SIMPLY ISNT ANYTHING HAPPENING ACROSS EASTERN            
KENTUCKY RIGHT NOW CONVECTIVE LY SPEAKING. STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS           
AND STORMS TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS               
ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. THE CIRROSTRATUS LAYER IS              
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY MUCH AT ALL SO FAR TODAY.             
THE 14 AND 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPS ARE              
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.            
MADE ADJUSTMENTS HERE PER THE TEMP TRENDS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING. ALSO RECALCULATED TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON THE CHANGES MADE           
TO DIURNAL TREND...WITH TODAYS HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE           
BOARD. CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE WEATHER           
AND QPF FORECASTS...BASED ON THE DECREASED POPS DURING THE LATE                 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE                 
STABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL REMOVE THE WATCH HEADLINE            
FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT BUT WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS             
FOR NOW AS IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL               
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS             
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF              
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
IT IS TOUCH TO GAGE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INITIAL MCS ONGOING TO            
OUR NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IS ACTUALLY                  
FAIRLY STABLE WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS LEFT OVER AFTER THE                  
CONVECTION EARLIER ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY JUST DELIVER A            
GLANCING BLOW AS THE EASTERN END PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN                     
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND THE WESTERN HALF DIVES SOUTH OR                      
REDEVELOPS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE            
STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MCS MAINTENANCE                   
PROBABILITIES BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS             
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AS              
IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA. WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE MCS EARLY               
THIS MORNING PRECIP WISE... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF DEBRIS                
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER            
OUT ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL MCS            
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE             
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT               
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WINDS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO NOTE TODAY IS THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE            
TEMPS WITH AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS AT JKL            
AND LOZ. GFS SEEMS TO BE WARMING THE AREA TOO MUCH AT 850 MB                    
POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVER DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. NAM IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE AMOUNT              
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. OVERALL... EXPECT READINGS TO COME IN SIMILAR             
TO YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES                 
COOLER UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.                              
WILL LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                 
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A MUCH DRIER             
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR ORDINARILY COOLER VALLEY                   
LOCATIONS AND KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANT ON THURSDAY.                             
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH ADVERTISING NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND AS REINFORCING NORTHERN            
STREAM ENERGY ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CUTOFF LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
EASTERN CANADA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM UNDER THE             
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING            
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                    
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY SEASONAL FOR            
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HPC NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN AND             
ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THESE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH ATTENTION NOW              
TURNS TO THE TIMING FOR THE RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE HARD              
TO PIN DOWN SO...BASED ON RECOVERY TIME AND DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE              
INCLUDED A PREVAILING VCTS FROM 18Z ON...INTENDING TO PROVIDE MORE              
SPECIFICS VIA FUTURE UPDATES OR AMENDMENTS. DID TRY TO TIME A NEW               
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LATER THIS EVENING FROM 01Z INTO             
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM               
THE SOUTHWEST...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE/AR/RAY                                                         
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1005 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 3 AM FOR             
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RAISED POPS FOR               
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS              
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION AS THEY CROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL MCS             
IS LIKELY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW /PER 00Z RUC MODEL/ WILL                
SUSTAIN NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE MCS ALL NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/...                     
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE POINTS TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TRYING TO RESOLVE             
THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES WITH MISO/MESOSCALE WEATHER                
FEATURES WITHIN LONGER RANGE FORECASTS INCORPORATING MESOSCALE AND              
SYNOPTIC SCALE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING MOS BASED GUIDANCE.               
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO THE EAST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST                
AREA IS FEEDING OFF A RICH THETA-E RIDGE EVIDENT AT THE 925-850 MB              
MANDATORY LEVEL CHARTS THIS MORNING...ALONG THE EASTERN LIMB OF                 
THE SURFACE TO 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY TODAY.                                                             
THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN                
THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONIC                
VORTEX...WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES              
AND T.S DOLLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN TWO NUMERICAL                     
GUIDANCE PACKAGES USED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE HIGH                      
RESOLUTION ECMWF AND THE 40KM GFS...DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE                      
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION.              
THE GFS IS INITIALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ROTATING DISTURBANCES                   
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW...PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD                   
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW HIGH           
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING                     
SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...TEMPORARILY WORKING THE COLD              
FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                     
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN MOISTURE BACK ACROSS               
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO AS LATE AS NEXT MONDAY.            
FOR NOW...I HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH                  
THURSDAY...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEYOND THE                    
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL                  
MEAN A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE                   
INITIAL PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND                        
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL BREAK IN THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...WITH                
SMALL...MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.                
GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST                  
REMAINS FOCUSED DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME                        
FRAME...AS MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS COMPLICATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE              
TRENDS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.               
ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA THIS                       
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI             
STATE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE             
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS MAY                 
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. INHERITED            
PROB30 GROUPS AT KEVV AND KOWB...SO LEFT IT WITH LITTLE                         
MODIFICATION. MAIN QUESTION FOR THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE                 
WHERE THE COLD FRONT OR EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP. CURRENT             
FEELING IS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE                 
AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A TREND TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH TIME.                
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...KEPT THEM DRY 12Z-18Z FOR NOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS/SMITH                                                            
AVIATION...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE LATE EVENING...                                                         
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER THERE AREA STILL                
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM NORTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY SOUTHEAST              
THROUGH SOUTHERN ORANGE...CRAWFORD...PERRY AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN             
INDIANA INTO HARDIN COUNTY KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF            
VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS WILL                   
DECREASE SLOWLY BUT A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE            
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MESO UPDATE (MID EVENING)...                                                   
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER 710 TO 11 PM EDT. THIS IS            
DUE TO REFORMATION OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.                     
.MESO UPDATE (EARLY THIS EVENING)...                                            
WELL...1ST BATCH OF CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON OVER BLUEGRASS                
REGION HAS PUSHED INTO JKL CWA...AND ONLY BROUGHT BRIEF GUSTY                   
WINDS...FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.  NEXT SVR            
STORM IS STRADDLING THE OWEN AND HENRY KY CO LINE...AND TRAJECTORY              
WILL TAKE THIS FLEMING COUNTY.  MAIN CONCERN IS THE SWRN EDGE OF AN             
MCS OVER CENTRAL PART OF IND AREA.  THESE STORMS HAVE A VERY TIGHT              
REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT OVER OWEN AND MONROE COUNTY LINE IN INDIANA               
AND DEFINITELY HAS A SEVERE WIND THREAT.                                        
WITH 70 DEW POINTS...LIS IN THE -5 TO -7 C RANGE...AND CAPES IN THE             
2500-3300 J/KG...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK            
WITH IN THIS NOTORIOUS NW FLOW.  THE 12Z U/A SOUNDINGS AT                       
ILN...ILX...AND BNA ALL DENOTE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH LOADS OF               
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM 700-500 MB.  THE CORFIDI VECTORS ON THE                
LAST RUC TAKE THIS COMPLEX INTO THE SCOTT AND JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE             
AROUND 2330Z.  IF THE RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE THESE COUNTIES CAN                  
EXPECT A SVR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER A PART OF CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON                 
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE CLOUD BOUNDARY WITH A CU/TCU FIELD AHEAD            
OF BOUNDARY AND LESS CLOUD COVER JUST BEHIND IT. EXPECT THESE STORMS            
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KY                
THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST              
CELLS SHOULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...              
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.                                                        
THE NEXT CONCERN IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL IL              
AND CNTRL IN. THIS AREA IS IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE             
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO                    
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EARLY EVENING. STORM TRAJECTORY AND STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST                 
MAIN AXIS OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE EVENTUALLY INTO SERN IN TO BETWEEN              
LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI...PROBABLY CLIPPING ERN PART OF OUR                   
S-CNTRL IN COUNTIES. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED SVR TSTM WATCH 710 TIL 01Z             
FOR ERN IL AND CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN IN. THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO              
WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.                         
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM WELL TO OUR NW AND POSSIBLY               
DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER MCS. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR NRN COUNTIES               
OVERNIGHT. INSTEAD...SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF              
HAZE/FOG.                                                                       
ON MONDAY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N AND W             
MAY SERVE AS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MON              
AFTERNOON WITHIN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. APPEARS NRN HALF OF               
FCST AREA WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH               
ISOLATED WET MICROBURTS POSSIBLE.                                               
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...                                        
MON NGT THRU WED NGT...                                                         
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE SHUD BE PRIME TIME FOR CONVECTIVE                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH MCS POTENTIAL MON                
NGT...MAINLY FOR OUR NRN FA AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT TUE.                    
LONGWAVE TROF...EMBEDDED WITH SEWD MOVG SHRTWV TROFS...FORECAST TO              
SHARPEN/DIG INTO OUR FA BY WED WITH TROF AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY               
WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING ACRS SRN                  
INDIANA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. SHORT RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES               
INDICATE A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR/NORTH OF BNDRY AS IT SLIPS             
SWD INTO N-CNTRL KY BY 12Z TUE. CURRENT HI CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN FA              
AND LOWER CHC SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE FOR MON NIGHT.               
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHUD BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG               
STORMS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW REACHING SVR LEVELS.                                
BNDRY CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL                       
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FRONT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROF            
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES              
SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD TUE WITH DECAYING...THEN              
REDEVELOPING MCS DROPPING SWD ACRS OUR FA. WILL RAISE POPS AT THAT              
TIME TO 50% ENTIRE FA. GREATEST SVR THREAT/DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD              
APPEAR TO BE ACRS OUR SRN FA TUE AFTN/EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH FRONT                
OVER THAT AREA DURING THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAX...ASSUMING                    
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DOES NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY DAYTIME HEATING.                  
BY WED...RAIN CHCS SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND                  
CONVERGENCE PROGGED ALONG BNDRY ACRS TENNESSEE. ONGOING FCST                    
INDICATES AS MUCH.                                                              
THU THRU SUN...                                                                 
TYPICAL LATE JULY TEMPS THRU THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.            
BEST CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL BE RESERVED FOR FRI.                                
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING WEAK NW UPR FLO THRU               
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOPEFULLY FLO WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A              
COUPLE OF COOL FRONTS SWD THRU OUR FA...WHICH BECOMES HARDER TO DO              
AS WE GET LATER INTO THE SUMMER.                                                
FIRST SUCH FRONT (QSTNRY) FORECAST TO BE ACRS TN THU WITH HIGH PRES             
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. HAVE                
CHOSEN TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THAT PERIOD FROM THE PREV FCST.            
FOR THU NGT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ON BNDRY AND MOVES                
ACRS MO/LWR OH VLY WITH GFS ENSEMBLES/OPS ECMWF AND HPC INDICATING              
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FRI AHEAD OF WAVE IN              
STRONGEST SLY/MOIST FLO.                                                        
WENT WITH HPC FOR THE WEEKEND (LOW CHC POPS) WITH A SECOND                      
DECELERATING FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING ACRS OUR FA WITH                   
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH...NEAREST FRONT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...UPDATED                                                  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AT SDF AND LEX. MID LEVEL                
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z AT SDF AND LEX...BUT SKIES SHOULD              
CLEAR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND SOME                    
MARGINALLY MVFR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM IN HAZE THIS MORNING                   
THROUGH 14Z.                                                                    
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED                   
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME               
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN.                 
SKIES SHOULD STAY VFR TOMORROW EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......JSD                                                                
SHORT TERM...TWF                                                                
LONG TERM....JDK                                                                
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                    
BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND                   
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT                 
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                               
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST                
OH/NORTHWEST PA ALONG A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE THE                   
NEXT WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS                     
WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS                      
EASTERN OHIO...AND ACROSS WESTERN PA EASTWARD LATE THIS                         
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LATE COUPLE OF                      
DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS                 
WILL CONTINUE. NAM/GFS/SREF ALL DEPICT A SLOWER EXIT OF THE                     
FORCING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE RIDGES...THUS WILL KEEP HIGH                  
END CHC POPS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY THERE...WITH DIMINISHING                 
PRECIP COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND                   
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL WORK IN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY                
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                           
RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHWRS WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE                   
RIDGES AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND                  
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING                 
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH                     
PERHAPS A SECONDARY FEATURE FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS                   
FOR SAT/SUN. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS                
SHOWING YET ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING              
THE FEATURE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RESIDUAL                  
CHANCES FOR MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LONG TERM.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
BLEND OF MOST RECENT RUC NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A BAND OF              
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO             
VALLEY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.                          
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPROUTING WITHIN               
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE ZONE TO THE VICINITY OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR                  
SUPPORTS THE CONTENTION OF THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM BAND. SREF DEEP             
LAYER BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES SUPPORT SPC THINKING THE STORMS MAY            
DEVELOP SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. SO THUNDERSTORM GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS               
INCLUDED WITH 3-HOUR WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM ONSET ALONG WITH MVFR.              
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AS NEEDED.                         
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON SEVERAL FACTORS THAT INCLUDE HOW MUCH              
CAPE IS USED TO SUPPORT PROPOSED INITIAL BAND AND EXACT TIMING OF               
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE FORECASTED A PERIOD             
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALBEIT THERE CAN ALSO BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL            
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR.              
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN MOISTENING OF THE SURFACE LAYER...HAVE                   
FORECASTED LATE NIGHT FOG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR.               
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE LAYER TO SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO            
END SHOWER CHANCES TO INDUCE WIDESPREAD VFR. BASED ON BLEND OF SREF             
AND GEFS MODEL RUNS EXPECT VFR TO BE PREVALENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY              
WITH ONLY IFR POSSIBILITY IN ISOLATED EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES.                
LATEST GEFS MODEL RUN SHOWS ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO              
VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RAISING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
429 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO                 
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY...AND INCH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                
MCS OVER OH HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF RLVTLY WELL THRU THE OVRNGT HRS.              
HRRR RUC SHOWS A SOMEWHAT INTERESTING PSBLTY W/ THIS...THAT THE                 
MCS WL DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS W.V. BUT THAT A LN A RW/TRW               
WL MAKE IT E OF THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTN. NEXT SHIFT WL KEEP AN                 
EYE ON THIS.                                                                    
SPC HAS ENTIRE MID ATLC IN A SLT RISK FOR THIS AFTN. THE MCS HAS                
HAD A NGT OF PRODUCING WATCHES...AND IF IT IS ABLE TO REGENERATE                
THIS AFTN THIS COULD AGN BE THE CASE FOR OUR RGN.                               
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ALTHO THIS HAS CERTAINLY NOT BEEN AS                    
OPPRESSIVE AS MANY OF THE LATE JULS I HV SPENT HERE. TEMPS 90-95                
THIS AFTN...HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100.                                           
CLD WISE DAY SHOULD START OUT BTWN THE SHORT WV THAT PRODUCED THE               
RW AFTR MDNGT AND THE MCS...SO MAINLY SUNNY THIS MRNG THEN INCRSG               
CLDS W/ CHC-LKLY POPS THIS AFTN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
UPPER TROF OVER ERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE NERN U.S. TNGT               
FORMING A SOMEHAT ATYPICAL LATE JUL PATTERN. BEING ON THE ERN SIDE              
OF THE TROF CHCS OF PCPN WL EXIST AGN TNGT. POPS MAINLY                         
40-50...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCRSD BASED ON HOW THINGS DVDLP TDA.          
TEMPS RANGE FM THE M60S HIGHLANDS TO MU70S IN CITIES AND ALONG                  
CHES BAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
WED LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE TOO MUCH OF A            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE DRNG THE MRNG HRS MAY LIMIT OR STABILIZE               
THE ENVRMNT FOR AFTN CONVECTION. FORCING HOWEVER DOESN/T LOOK TO BE             
AN ISSUE. A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED AND APRCHNG UPPER TROF AXIS                
WILL DIG VERY FAR SOUTH /FOR A LATE-JULY SYSTEM/ INTO THE TN VLY AND            
SRN APLCHNS INTO WED AFTN. ALL ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD /IN THE WARM              
SECTOR OF THE APRCHNG SHRTWV/...A FAIRLY INTENSE MID SUMMER LL JET              
MAX LOOKS TO DEVELOP. THIS FEATURE...ALONG W/ HIGH DWPNTS AND MID               
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COULD LIKELY DEVELOP SOME AREAS            
OF INTENSE CONVECTION UP/DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. OVRNGHT WED INTO                
THURS MRNG THE TROF AXIS WILL SHARPLY TURN NE/WRD AND PUSH THE                  
REMAINING ACTIVITY OFF THE ATLNC COAST.                                         
THE BIG CHANGE IN LR MODELS FROM 24 HRS AGO IS THE WEEKEND SET-UP               
FOR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT AGREEMENT IS HELD              
AMONGST GUIDANCE ABOUT THE SHARP TROF AXIS THAT GRADUALLY WORKS IT/S            
WAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...INITIALLY POSITIVELY TILTED            
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY...THEN BECOMES PHASES N/S            
OVER THE APLCHN CHAIN ON THURS /DRIVING THE ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST/.            
THEN THE UPPER TROF AXIS GRADUALLY TILTS NEGATIVELY AS IT MOVES UP              
THE NORTHEAST COAST. PREV RUNS FROM THIS POINT PUSHED THE UPPER LOW             
OUT /FROM ERN QUEBEC OUT INTO THE NRN ATLNC/ BY A DEVELOPING UPPER              
ON THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...INTO THE PLAINS OF S CNTL                  
CANADA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS NOW COMBINING THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST                
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR ONE               
LAST PASS OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE EXITING NORTH AMERICA. AT THIS               
POINT...THE MAIN EFFECT ON THE MID ATLNC LOOKS TO BE DAILY                      
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SCT/D CONVECTION EACH AFTN...PSBLY INTO               
THE WEEKEND IF THE SFC FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IT/S PROGRESS ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                           
VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. TSTM ACTVTY IS PSBL THIS AFTN WICH COULD GNR8              
STRONG WINDS. FOR TIME BEING ONLY HV VCTS REMARK IN TAFS. THIS WL               
NEED TO BE REFINED LATER THIS MRNG/THIS AFTN. TSTM WL BE PSBL DURG              
OVRNGT HRS AS WELL.                                                             
MUCH OF WED WILL HAVE THE PSBLY OF EITHER SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. BY WED            
AFTN...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER SOME RISK OF TSTMS...ESPC THE             
I-95 CRDR BY EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADLY PUSH OFF THE MID ATLNC             
COAST EARLY THURS. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THURS AND INTO                
FRI. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ACTIVITY AGAIN W/ SCTD TSTMS PSBLE INTO            
EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/ A PSBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MON.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NOP PROB WIND WISE TDA-TNGT. AFTN AND EVE TSTMS WL BE THE BIGGEST               
PROBS FOR MARINERS.                                                             
WINDS ON WED MAY APRCH SCA CRIT W/ BRIEF PERIODS OF S/RLY CHANNELING            
FROM AN APRCHNG UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE                
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO WED AFTN/EVNG. LITTLE CONCERN FOR THE END OF            
THE WEEK...THO ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
259 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A             
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THIS               
FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY...AND INCH NORTHWARD            
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN               
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC. TWO SHORTWAVES WERE ADVANCING FROM THE UPPER             
MIDWEST...THE LEAD WAVE NEARING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE                
TRAILING WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM CANADA. TROPICAL STORM            
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING OUT TO SEA. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS               
SHOW A 80-110KT JET FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS              
PLACED TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST. A              
TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE NEXT            
FRONTAL ZONE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND EAST ACROSS NEW            
ENGLAND.                                                                        
12Z KIAD RAOB AND KLWX VWP INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...IN RESPONSE TO CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OUT             
TO SEA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.           
GOES SATELLITE AND GPS POINT SENSORS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT                  
MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH            
CONVECTION FORMING AHEAD OF A MCV IN NORTHERN OHIO. 12Z NAM/GFS AND             
THE RUC HAVE NOT HAD ENOUGH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT THUS FAR            
TODAY ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO.                                                  
RUC HRRR WRF-ARW3 FROM 15Z WHICH HAD A BETTER REPRESENTATION ACROSS             
OHIO DOES INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. 09Z SREF INDICATING LESS THAN A             
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE              
OF 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN            
LAST NIGHT...SO FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN            
AND NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED-V SOUNDING MAY ALLOW CONVECTIVE                    
ACTIVITY TO BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                     
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP             
INTO THE UPPER 50S/60S OUT WEST...CLOSER TO 70 MOST LOCATIONS EAST              
OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE RICHER DEW POINTS RESIDE. GIVEN ABOVE                    
THOUGHTS...DO NOT THINK PATCHY FOG OUT WEST WILL BE WIDESPREAD                  
ENOUGH OR REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                      
HEIGHTS LOWER TOMORROW AS SUBSIDENCE FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES WELL TO               
OUR NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LEE TROUGH...INCREASING                  
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE LEE              
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY SERVE AS                   
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE                      
AFTERNOON. WITH 09Z SREF INDICATING A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1000              
J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND 30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (ESPECIALLY ACROSS                 
NORTHERN ZONES)...CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE A THREAT             
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.                                               
THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD                   
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
FORECAST AREA. HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE RETAINED EAST OF INTERSTATE                
95...WHERE THE HEAT INDEX MAY NEAR 100 DEGREES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE 1ST 24 HRS WL IMPACT GDNC SOLNS AT                 
LATER RANGES. THAT ERODES CONFIDENCE OUT OF THE GATE. GFS ALSO                  
SUFFERING FM TYPICAL GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES. BUT...IN THE                    
BIGGER PICTURE...THERE ARE A CPL OF FEATURES WHICH FCST WL RIDE                 
UPON. FIRST WL BE TRACKING MCV AND ITS SFC REFLECTION ACRS CWFA                 
TMRW NGT...AND 2NDLY TRACKING H5 TROF AXIS PIVOTING SWD FM DVLPG                
UPR LOW WED. ALTHO AMS WL BE MARGINALLY UNSTBL...EACH OF THESE                  
FEATURES WL BE CAPABLE OF INITIATING ITS OWN CNVCTN. IN                         
ADDITION...AMS WONT HV THE SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS PRESENT PAST CPL                 
DAYS.                                                                           
GOING FCST PRETTY MUCH HAS THIS CVRD. CHGS TO GRIDS TMRW NGT WL BE              
MINOR. POPS DO INCR IN THE EVNG AS VORT SLIDES THRU. HARD TO FIND               
OPERATIONAL GDNC TO SUPPORT IT...BUT MOS DOES REFLECT THIS THINKING             
PER HIER 3RD PD POPS. IN A BROADER PERSPECTIVE...SO DOES 09Z SREF...            
THO POP OUTPUT SEEMS A BIT MEAGER. UNLIKE YDA...SHUDNT BE MUCH OF A             
CAP IN PLACE...AND THINK ACTVTY WL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF...AT               
LEAST INTO THE EVNG.                                                            
TRENDS SO SCALE DWNWD AFTR MIDNGT AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE FINALLY                  
PREVAILS. BUT...THAT WL PLACE A SFC CNVGNC BNDRY ACRS CWFA WHEN UPR             
TROF PIVOTS THRU. SOME SPREAD STARTS CREEPING INTO H5 HGT ENS                   
PLOTS... AS OP GDNC NOT REAL CERTAIN WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THIS                   
ACTVTY. WHENEVER IT DOES OCCURS...IT SHUD RE-ENERGIZE CNVCTN...AND              
MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. HV                        
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISED POPS FOR WED...SPCLY E OF BLURDG...WHERE LIKELY             
POPS NOW IN PLACE. THAT ROUND SHUD WORK OFFSHORE WED EVNG...SHOVING             
SFC FRNT S/E OF CWFA...AND ALLWG SLGTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IN.                    
HVNT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPS...WHICH DONT REFLECT MUCH OF A              
SPREAD FM EACH OTR OR FM GOING FCST.                                            
DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DAY 2-3 FCST...CONFIDENCE IN               
THE XTNDD FCST REMAINS LOW. THE KEY STICKING PT REMAINS WHAT TO DO              
WITH THE STALLED QSTNRY BNDRY. PRIND HIPRES FM GRTLKS SHUD HV A                 
GREATER INFLUENCE...AT LEAST FOR PTMC HIGHLANDS. BUT...REEMERGENCE              
OF H5 TROF A BIT TRBLG. WHENEVER TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU...COMBINED               
WITH RTN FLOW...CWFA SHUD BE SET FOR MORE TSRA. THAT SHUD BE TWD THE            
WKND...BUT TOO MANY UNRESOLVED VRBLS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT THESE                 
DETAILS. SO...THIS FCST WL FEATURE CHC TSRA ALL BUT PTMC HIGHLANDS              
FRI...AND CHC TSRA AREAWIDE SAT-MON. HV CONFINED TIMING TO DIURNAL              
MAX...AFTN-EVE. GIVEN LWR HGTS...TEMPS WL BE NEAR CLIMO...W/ A                  
DECENT AMT OF CLDCVR LURKING.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS MCV ACROSS OHIO MOVES             
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. REPRESENTED THIS AS A CB GROUP...SINCE DID NOT               
HAVE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS              
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...DECOUPLING SHOULD DIMINISH WIND THIS                  
EVENING. DEW POINTS MIXED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH THEY            
SHOULD RECOVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG WEST OF            
THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE               
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...BUILDING INSTABILITY AND             
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION.                                              
FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF TSRA TUE-WED. TSRA DURATION LIKELY                 
TO BE SHORT...BUT PD OF RISK LONGER. STORMS MAY REINITIATE THU                  
AFTN-EVE DCA-BWI.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS               
EVENING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON                
AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...BUILDING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR               
FOR ORGANIZATION. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                               
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED IN LATER PDS EITHER...BUT TSRA STILL ARE.                  
XPCT LCLLY HIER WNDS/WVS AS WELL AS LTNG TUE-WED AS BNDRY EEKS                  
THROUGH...SUPPORTED BY UPR LVL IMPULSES. STORMS MAY REINITIATE                  
INVOF SAME BNDRY TO THE S THU AND FRI AFTN-EVE. SMW/S WL BE PSBL                
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HTS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI                                                            
SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI                                                           
LONG TERM...HTS                                                                 
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI/HTS                                                         
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/HTS                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO             
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO MANITOBA            
AND HUDSON BAY RESULTING INT NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT                  
LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY AND NRN                  
ONTARIO INTO WITH ACYC NNE FLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME ISOLD               
SHRA/TSRA  HAVE DEVELOPED OVER W AND SRN UPPER MI...WELL DOWNSTREAM             
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CAPE VALUES CAPE              
VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 500 J/KG.                                          
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
AFTER THE SHAR/TSRA FADE WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND INFLUX OF DRIER               
AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS                   
OVER THE WEST HALF SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH...AOB 5 KT...FOR                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.                  
11C TO 12C 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE MID AND UPPER             
70S INLAND WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR OVER               
THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING WILL KEEP AREA               
DRY WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING.                                            
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                            
BASED ON HPC CONFIDENCE AND GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS ENS AND                       
ECMWF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR MOST OF THE                   
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DID USE A BLEND OF THE NAM                  
DURING THE EARLY PERIODS.                                                       
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER...WILL                 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH UPPER MI BEING ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE                  
REGION FOR THE WED NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF THURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES            
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. STAYED TOWARDS THE MOS                    
GUIDANCE...BUT THEY COULD BE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT IN SOME OF THE                  
COOLER SPOTS.                                                                   
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW COMING OUR OF THE NRN ROCKIES ON                    
WED...EJECTING FROM CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WILL                   
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURS. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
RAIN DURING THE THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GFS AND                
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE WEAK LOW...AROUND              
1004MB...OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION AT 12Z ON THURS. THIS LOW                
WITH THEN SLOWLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS SRN HUDSON BAY BY 12Z SAT...WHILE             
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. DIDN`T                
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THURS...AS EXISTING              
CHANCE OVER THE FAR WRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR LOOKED GOOD. NAM IS A               
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE START OF THE PCPN ON THURS...DUE TO DRIER AIR            
HOLDING ON A LONGER...BUT FELT THE EXISTING CHANCE POPS MATCHED UP              
WELL. INTO THURS NIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY               
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE OVER THE WRN HALF OF             
THE CWA...AS ELEVATED H850 CAPE IS AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND SHOWALTER            
AROUND -2C...MOVES E INTO THE AREA ALONG THE H850 FRONT. WITH THE               
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF SHEAR...ONLY ABOUT 25-30KT 0-6KM                
BULK SHEAR...DON`T REALLY EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. FRIDAY                 
LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE                              
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES S AND W OF A LINE FROM IWD TO             
MQT TO ISQ. IN THIS AREA...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY                       
IMPROVED...30-35KTS...AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG                
RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTN...DO EXPECT TO SEE              
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL ONLY BE                  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.                                               
WAVE WITH THE LOW WILL MERGE AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER               
SWRN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER TROUGH ALSO OFF THE W COAST            
OF NOTAM. THIS WILL BRING NW FLOW TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE             
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER CNTL                 
NOTAM. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR THE              
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY              
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT AND SAT                      
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF LK SUPERIOR AND LAND              
LOCATIONS NEAR THERE...AS MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING              
THROUGH. CONTEMPLATED ADDING POPS IN OVER THE NRN PORTION OF UPPER              
MI...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE WOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED AND THE PCPN                
WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LK SUPERIOR                      
LOCATIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.                 
WITH THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE E ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                  
THEREFORE...DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND WENT WITH                
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD LK              
SUP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                
WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE              
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID                 
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL               
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20               
KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE               
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL               
AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING            
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR                   
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)                                                
SFC TROF AND H5 SHORT WAVE TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM. EXPECT THIS             
AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 22Z AND THEN DECAY AS IT                 
MOVES SOUTHWARD.                                                                
LATEST RUC DEVELOPS 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL            
ZONES BY 21Z. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH             
ORGANIZATION. SO...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ATTM...BUT SMALL HAIL...WIND            
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE                   
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FOR WED WITH GRADUALLY FALLING                       
DEWPOINTS...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS               
WED AFTN.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG THU AM WITH LIGHT                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWFA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE            
LONG TERM ON THU MORNING. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE            
AREA AND SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS SETUP            
WILL BRING MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS                
DOES BRING AN AREA OF RAIN THROUGH THE CWFA THU NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO            
BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL...AND HAS BEEN                
IGNORED FOR NOW.                                                                
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE                   
PACIFIC NW TOMORROW MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER              
TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI. THIS SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT            
WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT             
ON FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL              
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD. A               
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRI WITH THE BETTER CHC              
LIKELY COMING ON FRI EVENING WITH THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF PCPN WITH            
THIS FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINS                
NORTH OF THE CWFA.                                                              
MOST OF THE PCPN THREAT WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI                 
NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND EARLY SAT. MODELS ARE              
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW             
JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE              
WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING DRY FCST. IF THIS JET SINKS SOUTH JUST A                
LITTLE MORE...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                     
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FOR SUN. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE              
OUT...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING               
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                         
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF LOCATED NEAR PENTWATER WILL SINK SOUTH OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ONSHORE SOUTH              
AND NORTH BEHIND THE TROF. GLERL WAVE MODEL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING               
AREA OF 4-6 FOOT WAVES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS            
BEHIND TROF. THE WAVES MOVE ONSHORE EXTREME SE PORTION THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WED SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AGAIN            
WITH GOOD FETCH OF N-NW WINDS OF 15 KTS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WAVES             
APPROACHING 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH A SHORTWAVE                
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE TOUCHED OFF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE FOR               
THE MOST PART COME TO AND END. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS                 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL                
CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. MAIN FORECAST               
ISSUE IS THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE                
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT            
EXIST FROM KGRR TO KLAN AND POINTS SOUTH. FEEL THESE CEILINGS WILL              
PUSH SOUTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS.              
LOOKING FOR A VFR NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND.              
EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE HELD AT BAY TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STIFF NORTH                
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK (15-25 KTS AT 1000 FT). ON WEDNESDAY...                 
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT.                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MAX T-STORM AMOUNTS OF            
1.5 INCHES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL FROM 18Z THIS AFTN            
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     COBB                                                              
SHORT TERM:   COBB                                                              
LONG TERM:    NJJ                                                               
MARINE:       COBB                                                              
AVIATION:     DUKE                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    COBB                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...HYDROLOGY...SYNOPSIS...SHORT TERM...                 
.SYNOPSIS...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE               
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL               
AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING            
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR                   
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)                                                
SFC TROF AND H5 SHORT WAVE TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM. EXPECT THIS             
AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 22Z AND THEN DECAY AS IT                 
MOVES SOUTHWARD.                                                                
LATEST RUC DEVELOPS 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL            
ZONES BY 21Z. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH             
ORGANIZATION. SO...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ATTM...BUT SMALL HAIL...WIND            
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE                   
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FOR WED WITH GRADUALLY FALLING                       
DEWPOINTS...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS               
WED AFTN.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG THU AM WITH LIGHT                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A SFC COLD FRONT                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPR LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA.                 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT... AND               
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGING IT TO COME THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON                  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                      
HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY             
NIGHT IN SW FLOW WAA PATTERN PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND HAVE ADDED              
POPS FROM GRR SOUTH AND EAST FOR 12Z-18Z SATURDAY. NW FLOW AFTER                
FROPA SATURDAY SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.                         
THE WX PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE NW FLOW ALOFT (UPR            
LOW OVER QUEBEC)... WITH SURFACE RIDING BUILDING SE FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A PLEASANT/DRY PERIOD FOR SW MI WITH TEMPS AT            
OR JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                         
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF LOCATED NEAR PENTWATER WILL SINK SOUTH OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ONSHORE SOUTH              
AND NORTH BEHIND THE TROF. GLERL WAVE MODEL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING               
AREA OF 4-6 FOOT WAVES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS            
BEHIND TROF. THE WAVES MOVE ONSHORE EXTREME SE PORTION THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WED SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AGAIN            
WITH GOOD FETCH OF N-NW WINDS OF 15 KTS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WAVES             
APPROACHING 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL                
HAIL AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBILITIES WITH                  
STRONGEST STORMS. TOPS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 30 KFT. OUTLOOK FOR            
VFR ON WED WITH SOME SFC WIND GUST TO 20 KTS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MAX T-STORM AMOUNTS OF            
1.5 INCHES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL FROM 18Z THIS AFTN            
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     COBB                                                              
SHORT TERM:   COBB                                                              
LONG TERM:    MEADE                                                             
MARINE:       COBB                                                              
AVIATION:     COBB                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    COBB                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE -SHRA OVER WRN UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SLID S OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FCST AND MODIFIED              
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH TEMPS INTO               
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES               
NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7              
C/KM...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH...AWAY            
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K FT...AND WEAK                  
SHEAR...ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA.               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD LK              
SUP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE -SHRA OVER WRN UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SLID S OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FCST AND MODIFIED              
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH TEMPS INTO               
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES               
NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7              
C/KM...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH...AWAY            
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K FT...AND WEAK                  
SHEAR...ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA.               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME MID CLDS ARND THIS MRNG AND SOME DIURNAL              
CU THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES              
BLDG TOWARD LK SUP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME MID CLDS ARND THIS MRNG AND SOME DIURNAL              
CU THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES              
BLDG TOWARD LK SUP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF SOME LLVL DRY ADVCTN AND MID CLD TO REDUCE            
THE CHCS FOR SGNFT RADIATION FOG TNGT...BUT SOME FOG/ST MAY FORM                
OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE NLY WIND                    
COMPONENT AND MORE RECENT RA. ANY FOG/ST WL BURN OFF BY MID MRNG...             
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING TDAY AS DRY HI PRES BLDS TOWARD LK            
SUP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT)...                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND             
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTH INTO            
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO            
LOW ARE SWEEPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON              
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN                
WEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS OVER HUDSON BAY               
BLANKETING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DEEP MOISTURE IS MAINLY OVER                   
CENTRAL ONTARIO.                                                                
THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO               
TODAY. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. AS SUCH               
THE EASTERN U.P. LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE               
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SWEEPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND                
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO                   
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA               
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AIDING            
IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000J/KG WILL                 
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. SURFACE HEATING TODAY SHOULD CAUSE SOME            
LAKE BREEZES FRONTS TO SET UP WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER A              
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE            
MOISTURE. PW SUGGESTING DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM                
ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POPS               
MAINLY OVER THE WEST...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE DRIER            
AIR WILL SETTLE IN FIRST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S            
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY.                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                  
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB ADVECTING INTO THE              
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE VALUE            
WILL FALL OFF TO ZERO. THUS LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO CLEAR BY                  
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES            
BAY ON TUESDAY AND TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE             
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THE            
SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP             
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES               
BAY ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.                        
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. THE SURFACE             
RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE            
INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
OVER THE FAR WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK                
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOG HAS NOW LIFTED AT BOTH SITES. AT SAW THERE REMAINS A SMALL                  
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH DRY AIR            
MOVING IN...ANY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FARTHER INLAND. ANOTHER ROUND OF             
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT SAW TONIGHT. HINTED AT THIS WITH 3SM BETWEEN             
06Z AND 10Z...BEFORE WIND...STILL OUT OF THE NORTH...PICKS UP.                  
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRIER SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE MODEL                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THIS MORNING TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY BUILDS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS              
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE                
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS                
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.                    
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST FOG IS                
STILL PRESENT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS                 
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE. LATEST MODEL                    
GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
TODAY SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO...SO WILL ALLOW                
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND             
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTH INTO            
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO            
LOW ARE SWEEPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON              
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN                
WEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS OVER HUDSON BAY               
BLANKETING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DEEP MOISTURE IS MAINLY OVER                   
CENTRAL ONTARIO.                                                                
THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO               
TODAY. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. AS SUCH               
THE EASTERN U.P. LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE               
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SWEEPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND                
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO                   
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA               
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AIDING            
IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000J/KG WILL                 
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. SURFACE HEATING TODAY SHOULD CAUSE SOME            
LAKE BREEZES FRONTS TO SET UP WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER A              
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE            
MOISTURE. PW SUGGESTING DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM                
ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POPS               
MAINLY OVER THE WEST...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE DRIER            
AIR WILL SETTLE IN FIRST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S            
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY.                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                  
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB ADVECTING INTO THE              
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE VALUE            
WILL FALL OFF TO ZERO. THUS LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO CLEAR BY                  
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES            
BAY ON TUESDAY AND TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE             
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THE            
SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP             
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES               
BAY ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.                        
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. THE SURFACE             
RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE            
INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
OVER THE FAR WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK                
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HTG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE N THAT WAS            
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB AND SUPPORTED BY SOME CLEARING OVER NRN            
LK SUP...EXPECT IFR FOG/ST NOW TO GRDLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS              
THIS AFTN. THE PROCESS WL BE SLOWER AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE NNE FLOW AND            
MORE WDSPRD FOG/ST THAN THE PTCHY NATURE OF THIS ACRS THE KEWEENAW.             
ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DISTURBANCES WL BE SWINGING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW               
ALF THIS AFTN/TNGT...THINK STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP/ARRIVAL              
OF DRIER AIR WL KEEP DIURNAL SHRA CHCS SO LO AT CMX AS NOT TO                   
INCLUDE IN FCST. SINCE SAW IS FARTHER S...DIURNAL HTG MAY BE ENUF TO            
KICK OFF A SHRA THERE BEFORE TOO MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES. GIVEN THE                
DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM ACRS ONTARIO/NRN LK SUP...PREFER THE SOMEWHAT             
DRIER NAM FCST FOR TNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN SC/AC AND VFR                    
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THIS MORNING TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY BUILDS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS              
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE                
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS                
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.                    
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST FOG IS                
STILL PRESENT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS                 
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE. LATEST MODEL                    
GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
TODAY SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO...SO WILL ALLOW                
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR                      
    LSZ162-240>248-263>266.                                                     
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND             
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTH INTO            
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO            
LOW ARE SWEEPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON              
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN                
WEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS OVER HUDSON BAY               
BLANKETING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DEEP MOISTURE IS MAINLY OVER                   
CENTRAL ONTARIO.                                                                
THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO               
TODAY. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. AS SUCH               
THE EASTERN U.P. LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE               
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SWEEPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND                
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO                   
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA               
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AIDING            
IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000J/KG WILL                 
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. SURFACE HEATING TODAY SHOULD CAUSE SOME            
LAKE BREEZES FRONTS TO SET UP WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER A              
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE            
MOISTURE. PW SUGGESTING DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM                
ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POPS               
MAINLY OVER THE WEST...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE DRIER            
AIR WILL SETTLE IN FIRST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S            
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY.                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                  
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING DRIER AIR BELOW 800MB ADVECTING INTO THE              
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE VALUE            
WILL FALL OFF TO ZERO. THUS LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO CLEAR BY                  
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES            
BAY ON TUESDAY AND TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE             
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THE            
SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP             
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES               
BAY ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.                        
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. THE SURFACE             
RIDGE WILL START TO EDGE INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE            
INTO MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
OVER THE FAR WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK                
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG FORMING               
OVERNIGHT. SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MI AT PRESENT.              
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SFC TROF PASSAGE                
COULD ADVECT FOG/STRATUS IN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH             
IDEA OF PREVIOUS FCST GOING AS LOW AS IFR ON VSBY AND LIFR ON CIG.              
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR COMING OFF ONTARIO SHOULD HELP             
BRING VSBYS AND CIGS UP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY AT CMX               
WHERE THE EXPECTED NE WIND WILL BE A DOWNSLOPE WIND.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THIS MORNING TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY BUILDS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS              
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE                
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS                
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.                    
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST FOG IS                
STILL PRESENT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS                 
QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE. LATEST MODEL                    
GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
TODAY SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO...SO WILL ALLOW                
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 16Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR                      
    LSZ162-240>248-263>266.                                                     
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK                  
RIDGING OVER MT INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NW                 
ONTARIO/NRN MN AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER UPPER MI. BETWEEN THE                 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE VERY WEAK RIDGE...A SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO THE              
WRN U.P.. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV HAVE BEEN VERY TOUGH TO CLEAR              
OUT...AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS EXPLAIN WHY WITH CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 2500            
FT. ONLY AREA THAT WAS ABLE TO HAVE THE MOST SUN WAS OVER THE EAST              
CENTRAL U.P....LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN THERE LAST NIGHT TO               
CAUSE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. THIS AREA THAT HAS HAD SUN IS NOW                   
FILLING IN WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS LAKE BREEZES               
CONVERGE INTO AN AIRMASS THAT HAS MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. OTHER               
STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN             
UPPER LOW THAT HAS COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO                  
GETTING A LITTLE HELP FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING ASSOCIATED             
WITH A 90KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN. RELATIVELY HUMID              
CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN              
THE LOW 60S F. GIVEN THAT THESE ARE AT LEAST 15F HIGHER THAN THE                
LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS...SOME FOG CONTINUES ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE            
ALSO DEPICTS SOME ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI. HOWEVER...SATELLITE                  
IMAGES AND SOME RECENT SHIP OBS SUGGEST THE FOG IS NOT AS                       
WIDESPREAD...AND PERHAPS NOT AS DENSE AS WELL. MID CLOUDS ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE PREVENTING A FULL GOOD ANALYSIS OF THE                        
FOG...THOUGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE DURING              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS                  
THE SHRTWV OVER WESTERN UPPER MI PRESSES EAST. PCPN WILL ALSO GET               
HELP FROM THE UPPER JET CORE IN CENTRAL MN MOVING DOWN INTO NRN WI              
TO APPLY SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN                  
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT RIGHT NOW THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE            
JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. UPPER LOW OVER NRN MN/FAR WRN                  
ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...LIKELY               
BRINGING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN MN ACROSS.                      
HOWEVER...SINCE THESE ARE SURFACE BASED...AM NOT EXPECTING ALL OF               
THEM TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THEREFORE QPF AMOUNTS AND POPS REMAIN LOW            
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH TO              
THE EAST TO ALLOW AT LEAST THE BORDER COUNTIES TO DRY OUT. IN THE               
NORTHERN U.P....THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH            
THE FOG/STRATUS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE                    
REGIONAL CANADIAN...NAM AND GFS IS TO SWING LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN U.P. IN THE WAKE OF THE               
UPPER LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH              
THE LOW CLOUDS. OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS SIMILAR BUT QUICKER IN                 
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWARD. HAVE WENT AGAINST THIS AS THE                 
MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH A SURFACE LOW IT GENERATES FROM THE UPPER             
LOW. KEPT IN SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVENINGS              
RAIN AND WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH. LOW TEMPS LOOKED                     
REASONABLE AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY.                          
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS UPPER LOW...AREA SHOULD BE UNDER AN UPPER               
TROUGH FOR MONDAY...PERHAPS AMPLIFYING A BIT AS A SHRTWV OVER NW                
ONTARIO AT 12Z DROPS SOUTH. THIS MEANS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL              
AIR ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.              
PROBLEM AGAIN...THOUGH...IS THE LOW CLOUDS. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN               
SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE CWA BEING ENCOMPASSED BY THEM...WHICH IS                    
PROBABLY A BIT TOO MUCH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS                      
WIDESPREAD...MAINTAINING CLOUDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE OVER THE NORTHERN            
U.P....THEN CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM            
ONTARIO AND DAYTIME HEATING MIXES. PREFER THIS SCENARIO MORE. HAVE              
KEPT IN SOME 20 POPS IN THE MORNING FOR ANY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...RAISED POPS             
TO 40 FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AS SOME MINOR LAKE BREEZE COMES OFF LAKE             
MICHIGAN TO CONVERGE WITH THE GENERAL NE FLOW. WANTED TO GO HIGHER              
WITH POPS...SINCE THE GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN ALL SHOW                        
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING...BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AT                
ALL. EXPANDED TSTM CHANCE AREA AS WELL TO MATCH WHERE THE GFS LIFTED            
INDICES ARE LESS THAN ZERO. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY BE SIMILAR TO              
THOSE TODAY SINCE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AROUND IN               
THE MORNING. THEREFORE COOLED HIGHS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE            
SUPERIOR WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
NAM SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND 00Z TUE WITH A                     
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN              
CWA MON NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE            
INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED. GFS IS SIMILAR AND HAS SOME 850-500 MB               
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR MON NIGHT WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND A BIT OF             
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD HELP KICK OFF                
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WITH THE EAST                  
REMAINING DRY WITH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LACKING THERE. SINCE THERE             
IS LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL THEN...WILL GO LOW CHANCE POPS               
FOR MON NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST HALF. FOR TUE...MOISTURE IS LACKING               
AND WILL KEEP DRY WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE            
SOUTH. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST            
FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.                                                    
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE               
INTO THE AREA 00Z THU WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS THEN. THE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES                
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS               
EAST OF HERE 00Z SUN. WILL GO MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAS              
SOME CONTINUITY ON ITS SIDE. WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA              
FOR FRI WITH COLD FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES KICKING SOME CHANCE POPS               
OFF AND THEN GO DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE NEAR NORMAL AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES EXCEPT TO REMOVE               
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG FORMING               
OVERNIGHT. SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MI AT PRESENT.              
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SFC TROF PASSAGE                
COULD ADVECT FOG/STRATUS IN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH             
IDEA OF PREVIOUS FCST GOING AS LOW AS IFR ON VSBY AND LIFR ON CIG.              
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR COMING OFF ONTARIO SHOULD HELP             
BRING VSBYS AND CIGS UP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY AT CMX               
WHERE THE EXPECTED NE WIND WILL BE A DOWNSLOPE WIND.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FOG REMAINS THE MOST PROBLEMATIC ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST...WITH AN              
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH            
FRIDAY TO MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS AT 20 KT OR LESS. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS            
FOG MAY HAVE DISSIPATED SOME ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ENOUGH TO                   
WARRANT DROPPING THE FOG COVERAGE FROM WIDESPREAD TO AREAS...STILL              
KEPT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OUT WITH HIGH MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA            
CROSSING THE COOLER LAKE. IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO                
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THAT COULD REDEVELOP FOG. FOG WILL                  
DISSIPATE NE TO SW ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR OVER NE ONTARIO MOVES DOWN            
ACROSS THE LAKE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-             
     240>248-263>266.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A                  
MODEST LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST LIFT                
ALONG AN ELEVATED NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW MO INTO THE MO                 
OZARKS. CAPES DEPICTED BY THE RUC STILL PRETTY STOUT OVER                       
KS...WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG. THIS WEAKENS INTO THE MO OZARKS...                
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG...BUT MUCAPES STILL 1500-2000 J/KG.               
STILL HAVE ONE GOOD PERSISTENT UPDRAFT OVER EAST CENTRAL KS...AND A             
WEAKER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL MO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THIS                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE FOR AWHILE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE NW-SE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE STUCK OVER THE AREA. DSA                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE                          
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONT FROM THE KC METRO                
AREA SOUTHEAST INTO THE MO OZARKS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME                  
MENTION OF SHOWERS/VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KSGF OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIP              
SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL KEEP TAFS VFR...BUT MAY SEE SOME                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WED...BUT                      
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WE               
MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG/HAZE AGAIN                    
TOWARD DAWN. DSA                                                                
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
920 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A                  
MODEST LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST LIFT                
ALONG AN ELEVATED NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW MO INTO THE MO                 
OZARKS. CAPES DEPICTED BY THE RUC STILL PRETTY STOUT OVER                       
KS...WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG. THIS WEAKENS INTO THE MO OZARKS...                
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG...BUT MUCAPES STILL 1500-2000 J/KG.               
STILL HAVE ONE GOOD PERSISTENT UPDRAFT OVER EAST CENTRAL KS...AND A             
WEAKER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL MO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THIS                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE FOR AWHILE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE NW-SE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE STUCK OVER THE AREA. DSA                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED                   
CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAFS SITES...BUT ACTUAL WEAK SFC               
BOUNDARY STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE MO OZARKS. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ELEVATED                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT FROM THE KC METRO AREA SOUTH INTO                
CENTRAL MO AND THE MO OZARKS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW FOG                   
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY...BUT THE TAF SITES ESCAPED THE                   
HEAVIER RAINFALL SO WILL LEAVE BOTH TAFS VFR THROUGH WED. DSA                   
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
255 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA              
BORDER INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION             
WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI BUT ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN                
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM JUST EAST OF KICL. SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING             
MID CLOUDS FROM NEAR KICL TO NW OF KOMA AT 07Z. THIS AREA LINES UP              
WITH 00Z GFS QPF AT 12Z AND WITH 06Z RUC 850-700MB THETA-E AXIS                 
WHICH GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH 18Z. WILL CARRY SOME LOW              
POPS THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH THE THETA-E AXIS.                                                          
AFTER THIS MORNING LOOKS LIKE AREA STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE                  
MOISTURE AXIS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH                  
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO THE AREA                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS FOCUS AN              
MCS NEAR THE NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO             
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NAM FASTER IN MOVING IT EAST OF THE AREA.                 
GENERALLY BROADBRUSHED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.                       
TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT            
DO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE            
WEST.                                                                           
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 23/12Z                                        
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF EASTERN             
NEBRASKA TAF SITES...HOWEVER A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH              
15Z IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY            
TO DIRECTLY AFFECT TAF SITES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO               
LEAVE THE AREA...SO AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS             
JUST BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE BOTH TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY                
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON                 
CUMULUS AND PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DERGAN                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
312 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC FRONT HAS DRAPED THROUGH THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY AND WEST                   
THROUGH KBFF THIS AFTN. MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AFTER LAST NIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING            
OVER ERN WY AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT                      
INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEERING CURRENTS WOULD LIKELY               
CARRY ANY DISTURBANCES EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF             
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY           
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE GFS...NAM AND RUC ARE SILENT                
TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE NO SUFFICIENT FORCING IS PRESENT TO                
BRING ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO WRN OR CNTL NEB TONIGHT. THE BLENDED                
GUIDANCE INDICATED ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS GUIDANCE WAS           
USED FOR POPS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                        
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE PLATTE VALLEY.           
THE NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST SUGGESTED SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP              
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT               
INTO CNTL NEB. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE POOL AND INCREASE. STILL...               
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM                  
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHTLY                      
BETTER RAIN CHANCES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE ATM REACHES CRITICAL MASS. ALL MODELS              
INDICATE 140 PERCENT OR GREATER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE AND THE NAM                
INDICATES 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH           
THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BIT MORE               
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED BY THE             
NAM12 ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS A 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY               
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUGGESTING ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE                   
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND HPC INDICATES 1/4 INCH RAINFALL FOR DAYS 1            
THROUGH 5. THUS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORT STORM            
DEVELOPMENT...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE            
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE ATM FINALLY DRYING OUT MONDAY. THE HPC                  
GRIDS SUGGESTED MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THIS WAS              
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE GFS WHICH SHOW ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS               
FAVORS THE MISSOURI BASIN FOR RAINFALL AND THE GFS FAVORS THE PLATTE            
VALLEY.                                                                         
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS THE USUAL BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH HPC FOR            
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED TEMPERATURES WILL             
REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIC THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT                 
COOL DOWN MONDAY. THE HPC TEMPERATURES WERE MARKED UP SLIGHTLY                  
TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE WHICH WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE VERY WARM 12Z             
GFS GUIDANCE IN SUPPORT OF THE WARMER ENSEMBLE SOLN.                            
IN FINAL...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR                       
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS                
PRECLUDED HIGHER POPS. LATER FORECASTS TONIGHT AND BEYOND WILL HAVE             
TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS AS CIRCUMSTANCES COULD CHANGE                     
DRAMATICALLY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE AMOSPHERE COULD CATCH FIRE.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EITHER THE KVTN OR KLBF                    
TERMINALS APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE LATEST TAF FCST. THOUGH             
A SFC FRONT COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE            
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...UPPER LVL                  
SUPPORT IS FCST TO BE DISPLACED FROM THOSE INGREDIENTS OVER WESTERN             
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRECLUDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.                      
THUS...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH MAINLY PERIODIC SCT MID TO HIGH LVL              
CLOUD DECKS...WITH WINDS MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH              
THE NEXT 24 HRS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/JG                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
315 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST RUC80 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO HIGH CENTROIDS OVER               
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CENTER IS POSITIONED AT THE CA/             
AZ/BAJA OF CA TRIPLE POINT...WHILE THE OTHER IS CENTERED JUST EAST              
OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN UPR LEVEL WEAKNESS             
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE               
MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES...PARTICULARLY WITHIN              
THE 850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...           
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT STEERING              
FLOW WILL CURTAIL ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF             
YEAR...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. MOST             
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...HOWEVER A              
FEW LINGERING STORMS COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.                      
SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST THREAT              
FOR PCPN TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. SOME ACTIVITY MAY             
TRY TO SQUEAK INTO THE NE PLAINS AS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS TILTS A              
BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE ERN PLAINS AS PCPN/CLOUD             
COVER LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING SOLAR IN THE WEST.                          
ALL EYES SHIFT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE              
WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM...SOON TO BE HURRICANE...DOLLY APPROACHES SRN            
TEXAS. THE NAM80 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ONE OF THE MORE NRN SOLUTIONS            
AND PROVIDES SOME IMPACT IN THE FORM OF INCREASED QPF ACROSS SRN NM.            
OF INTEREST...THREE OUT OF 13 HURRICANE MODELS TRACK THE REMAINS OF             
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO SE NM. THOUGH UNLIKELY...            
IT BEARS WATCHING WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE CWA. ATTM...             
IT APPEARS THE GFDI MODEL AND TPC TRACK LOOK THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. IN             
GENERAL...THE BIGGEST PLAYER WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH.            
IN CONTRAST...THE GFS PLACES THE HIGH ON FRI OVER ERN NM/WRN TX...              
BLOCKING THE STATE FROM AN INTRUSION OF DEEP MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...             
THE ECMWF PLACES THE HIGH NEAR THE DALLAS AREA...ALLOWING FOR A S/SE            
COMPONENT ACROSS SRN NM. BY THE WEEKEND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER              
HIGH TO CENTRAL NM...SHUNTING THE REMAINS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.             
THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPR HIGH ONLY TO CENTRAL            
TX...OPENING THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL             
AZ. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MAKE SWEEPING            
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED MID/LONG RANGE FORECAST. DPORTER                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WESTERN              
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS                 
INCLUDES AFFECTS TO TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP...FMN...ABQ AND SAF.             
MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
STRONGER STORMS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW THUS MAKING THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR LONGER MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORTS. STRONG WIND                 
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY. GUSTS            
UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                  
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER A PORTION OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH            
AT LEAST THE WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS               
UPPER HIGH WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF WETTING RAIN. THE FAVORED            
AREA FOR THIS WETTING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.            
THE EASTERN THIRD WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM                     
ACTIVITY...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL BE A                   
FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME OF             
HER MOISTURE COULD GET TRANSPORTED UP INTO NM BUT AT THIS TIME...A              
LITTLE LESS LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN            
EYE ON IT. HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PCT THROUGH                  
FRIDAY. 50                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  62  94 /  60  40  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  59  82  56  87 /  60  50  30  30              
GRANTS..........................  57  82  54  88 /  50  40  30  30              
GLENWOOD........................  64  88  62  92 /  40  50  30  30              
CHAMA...........................  49  77  49  81 /  60  50  40  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  83  55  86 /  30  30  30  20              
RED RIVER.......................  45  73  45  74 /  30  30  30  30              
TAOS............................  53  85  49  88 /  30  30  30  20              
SANTA FE........................  57  85  59  88 /  40  30  30  20              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  87  59  91 /  40  20  20  20              
ESPANOLA........................  60  89  58  94 /  30  30  30  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  68  92 /  40  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  92  65  94 /  30  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  88  64  91 /  40  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  91  66  93 /  40  20  20  20              
SOCORRO.........................  64  92  64  92 /  30  20  20  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  84  54  87 /  40  30  20  20              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  87  58  89 /  30  20  20  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  90  62  92 /  30  20  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  55  81  54  81 /  30  20  10  20              
RATON...........................  56  90  56  91 /  10  10  10  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  86  56  86 /  20  20  20  20              
ROY.............................  62  89  63  89 /  10  10  10  10              
CLAYTON.........................  64  94  65  93 /   5   5   5  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  63  94  63  94 /  10  10  10  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  96  68  97 /   0   5   5   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  95  67  95 /  10   5   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  66  94  68  93 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  66  95  68  94 /   5   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  69  96  69  96 /   5   5   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46/50                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
946 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WEDNESDAY INTO             
THURSDAY...DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WILL                 
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED                
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE                  
CELLS WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. PER RADAR                            
ESTIMATES...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN IN WASHINGTON                  
COUNTY JUST NORTH OF MPV...WITH ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.                   
ALSO...SEPARATE CONVECTIVE CELL ACROSS FAR SERN ORLEANS COUNTY                  
PRODUCED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN WESTMORE AND SUTTON                
VERMONT. LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE                  
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.                                                
ALTHOUGH 01Z LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES VALUES AROUND 500               
J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...POTENTIAL               
FOR LTG IN ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED BY                        
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /13.2 KFT AT KALB PER 00Z RAOB/                 
AND NARROW NATURE OF CAPE PROFILE. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT REMAINING                
CONVECTIVE CELLS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FREE OF LIGHTNING AND WE WILL                
DROP THE LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AT THIS                   
TIME. THE 850MB RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK WAA ON SWLY                 
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS EAST OF 850MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT               
LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 1.25                 
INCHES WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT CELLS OVERNIGHT...LARGELY LINKED TO              
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. AS SUCH...GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO              
BE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT. BRIEF PERIODS              
OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.                          
OTHERWISE...2-M WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT              
IN PLACE. SMALL PBL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BREAKS IN OVERCAST WILL            
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG WILL BE                     
LOCALLY DENSE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AREAS                    
SEEING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                  
AS OF 409 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW              
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN INCREASING THREAT OF EXCESSIVE                     
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.              
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS                               
TONIGHT/WED...AND WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT              
BY THURS. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THURS. COUPLED GULF              
OF MEXICO/WRN ATLC PLUMES TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS               
PERIOD...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH                
INTO FA. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO THURS MORNING AS                 
RATHER VIGOROUS SHRTWV ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER LOW AND INTERACTS WITH              
N-S SFC BOUNDARY APRCHG SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. DESPITE SOME                      
DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS REGARDING DURATION OF THE EVENT...THEY ARE               
REMARKABLY SIMILAR AS TO WHERE THEY INDICATE MAX PCPN...SHOWING A               
WIDEPSREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF OVER ERN NY AND WRN/CNTRL VT BTWN               
MIDDAY WED AND THURS PM...WITH NAM INDICATING SOME LOCALIZED 6"+                
TOTALS. ANTECEDENT CONNDITIONS (3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER                  
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACRS MUCH OF AREA) SUGGEST THIS AMOUNT OF                     
EXPECTED RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS                
OF FA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA                   
EXCEPT FOR ST LWR CTY AND NRN FRANKLIN CTY NY WHERE THREAT OF HVY               
RAIN IS LOWEST. NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL WIND                
PROBLEM FOR WED NITE...MAINLY FOR HIR TRRN/WRN SLOPES OF VT.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON                 
FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES              
NEAR OR SLIGHLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                     
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LEADING TO              
DECENT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THOUGH DETAILS AND TIMING VARY.                    
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH VERY LITTLE                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THINK MOS MAX                   
TEMPS A BIT OVERDONE AS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THINK THE WET                     
PATTERN AND DAILY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT               
COOLER THAN WOULD ORDINARILY BE EXPECTED.                                       
ON SATURDAY UPPER TROF RELOADS AND A RETRIGGERING OF CONVECTION                 
THAT COULD TURN INTO MORE HEAVY RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY               
SUNDAY BUT JUST TOO SOON TO TELL. THE FRONT DOES LOOK A LITTLE                  
MORE PROGRESSIVE SO PRECIP TAPERS TO POST FRONTAL CHANCES OF                    
SHOWERS. COULD BE THUNDER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COLD CORE ALOFT               
STAYS MAINLY NORTH.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF            
THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE              
AS THE SUN SETS AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BY               
01Z. FOG WILL SET IN AT ALL SITES...GENERALLY 07Z-11Z.                          
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT WILL REMAIN MVFR IN OCCASIONAL FOG. KMPV/KSLK WILL               
BOTH SEE IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AFTER 05Z...THEN LIFR/VLIFR                
AFTER 08Z. FOG SHOULD LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. THEREAFTER...LOW                
CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE            
AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS 2000-4000 FT 12Z-15Z...THEN MVFR AT             
ALL SITES AFTER 15Z AT ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION             
SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER 21Z...DROPPING VISIBILITY TO 4SM AND CEILINGS              
TO BELOW 2000 FT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH TO              
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH            
OF THE EXTENDED AVIATION. HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR EXPECTED.             
LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE                           
OVERNIGHT...WITH FRIDAY DRY AND VFR. MORE RAIN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY            
AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH                     
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SERIOUS FLOODING EXISTS WED-              
THU.                                                                            
THIS EVENINGS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
DROPPED NEARLY 2"/HR VIA GAGE AND MATCHING RADAR ESTIMATES JUST A               
SIGN OF THINGS TO COME.                                                         
GFS/SREF/NAM MODELS CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT                 
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE ADIRONDACKS/ESSEX EAST.               
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND                        
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT IS ON TAP FOR OUR REGION BEGINNING WED                 
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                 
WITH HEAVY ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OF 3-6 INCHES AND POINT TOTALS NEARING           
8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE PAST 4                      
DAYS...HEADWATER 1/3/6 HR FFG VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND IT WON/T                 
TAKE MUCH TO PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD SHOULD ADDL HEAVY               
RAFL OCCUR. CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH              
AND SCT 4 INCH TOTALS TO MUCH OF OUR REGION DURING THE WED/THU                  
PERIOD AS SEMI-STATIONARY DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME RIDES                 
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH END ESTIMATES WOULD GIVE SOME AREAS UP              
TO 7 INCHES DURING THESE PERIODS...WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AREALLY          
BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOW MORE                      
STATIONARITY.                                                                   
IF THESE TOTALS INDEED OCCURRED FLOODING WOULD BE QUITE SERIOUS.                
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THE MASSENA ASOS UNDERGOING SERVICE TODAY AFTER THE SITE HAS BEEN               
REBUILT AND MAY BE AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                      
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.                                          
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                      
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-035.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...RJS                                                                
LONG TERM...SISSON                                                              
AVIATION...MB                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
EQUIPMENT...                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
650 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND A WARM HUMID              
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFTER             
MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AND               
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. -RHJ                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM                 
NJ SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH                   
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY              
AND WV. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS                  
IA/IL/IN/OH. A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED              
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MADE                 
ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE MORNING...STALLING OUT IN                    
VICINITY OF THE US 1 CORRIDOR (NOTICE THE PROMINENT WIND SHIFT IN               
THAT AREA).                                                                     
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                                           
CONVECTION: THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP                  
LAPSE RATES... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF                
1.31". FCST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP                
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER                 
60S. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE                        
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE                
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT                
WE WILL HAVE A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                     
DEVELOP. AT PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OUT              
AROUND THE US 1 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL                    
FOCUS. THE WEAK 250MB SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS                   
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT THE UPPER LEVELS.                 
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN              
ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL NC...KEEPING THE BEST DPVA                    
(ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER SOUTH OVER GA/SC. ANOTHER                      
POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY COME FROM THE                            
SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES. GIVEN                    
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY FAR               
INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL                  
WINDS WILL ALLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS IN THE TRIAD TO 20%                 
GIVEN THAT THEY ARE COOLER/DRIER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE...AND ARE                   
BEHIND THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE               
(30%) CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPS/MOISTURE                 
ARE HIGHER...AND UPPED POPS TO 40% IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE               
STALLED MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MEET WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN NC AND/OR THE                        
SEABREEZE...SHOULD IT PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.               
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY BECOME                   
SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A                  
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP                
TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.                                                         
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE                      
LOWER/MID 70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS                 
OVERNIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL               
PAST SUNSET AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR                  
WEST...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR              
THIS TO OCCUR...IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING                 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TN...WITH FCST              
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT                        
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -VINCENT                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY MOIST (PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2            
INCHES)...APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING                 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT (ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z) SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF                 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. NAM/WRF IS A LITTLE FASTER                 
THAN SLOWER GFS WHILE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE.                
NAM/WRF DOES APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING BETTER AT MID DAY WITH THE                  
PLACEMENT/DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY              
INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY (GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW AND TOO WEAK OVER                
THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WESTERN KY/TN). WHILE LOW/MID LEVEL                        
KINEMATICS RATHER WEAK...PRECIP LOADING IN THE STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY              
LEAD TO DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY PRODUCE CONTINUOUS               
TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (K INDICES NEAR 40 DEG C; LOW                  
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVER CWA; MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG                
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1).                                                         
INITIATION OF CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS. IF TIMING OF                 
GFS IS MORE CORRECT...CONVECTION WILL START MUCH LATER ALLOWING                 
TEMPS TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE MID 90S. SINCE FAVOR THE NAM                    
TIMING...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ETA MOS GUIDANCE.                             
WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT                      
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS.                                                                          
THURSDAY...NAM/WRF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD PASSAGE OF MID                  
LEVEL TROUGH THAN GFS/ECMWF. FAVOR THE SLOWER GFS AS DIFFICULT TO               
GET A "CLEAN" TROUGH PASSAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR              
CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND                  
BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.                                                   
FRIDAY...AIR MASS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE (PER GFS). MID                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE                  
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL (1.3-1.5 INCHES) AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIFTED               
INDICES MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                     
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO                  
NORMAL (NEAR 90/LOWER 90S).                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE                
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TYPE            
OF PATTERN USUALLY SUPPORTS A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL                 
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR NORMAL. CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT              
WITH NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR DECAYING MCS OR MCS                
INDUCED VORT MAX TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT                  
DEVELOPS IN THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY OR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS              
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AOB 30%               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.               
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE RWI/FAY TAF                 
SITES...WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RDU AND THE LEAST CHANCE AT INT/GSO.            
SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAIL ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.             
AT THIS TIME WILL COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY ADDING A                
SCT060CB TO ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE                 
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY                
ALSO PROMOTE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING             
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. -VINCENT/MWS                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ009>011-                       
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WSS/RHJ                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/RHJ                                                         
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE                    
FORECAST FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE               
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL                  
NC...SEE TEMPERATURE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...                       
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NJ              
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE             
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND WV. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS IA/IL/IN/OH. A             
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED THROUGH THE OHIO            
VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MADE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL             
NC DURING THE MORNING...STALLING OUT IN VICINITY OF THE US 1                    
CORRIDOR (NOTICE THE PROMINENT WIND SHIFT IN THAT AREA).                        
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                                           
TODAY:                                                                          
THE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY                
CHALLENGING...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE LARGE MCS THAT PROPAGATED INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM             
THE REMNANT MCS STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE                 
FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS:                                                         
CONVECTION:                                                                     
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES...               
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF 1.31". FCST                   
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. FCST                     
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR               
100F. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE A                   
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AT                        
PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OUT AROUND THE US            
1 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THE WEAK 250MB            
SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR                   
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC              
IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER             
CENTRAL NC...KEEPING THE BEST DPVA (ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER             
SOUTH OVER GA/SC. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY                
COME FROM THE SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES.            
GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY             
FAR INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL              
WINDS WILL ALLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS IN THE TRIAD TO 20%                 
GIVEN THAT THEY ARE COOLER/DRIER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE...AND ARE BEHIND            
THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE (30%)                
CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPS/MOISTURE ARE                   
HIGHER...AND UPPED POPS TO 40% IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE                   
STALLED MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MEET WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN NC AND/OR THE                        
SEABREEZE...SHOULD IT PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.               
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE            
GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A PRIMARY                 
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE            
OF NICKELS.                                                                     
TEMPERATURES:                                                                   
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION             
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE                
THAT AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH/EAST SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM                  
MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON               
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE THE TRIAD AREA MAY TOP OUT IN              
THE MID 90S...DEPENDING HOW MUCH AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURRED IN               
ASSOC/W THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE               
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA AS OF 17Z...               
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY BETWEEN 100-104F. THE HEAT ADVISORY              
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING.                                
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER/MID            
70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TO              
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL PAST SUNSET                
AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR WEST...BASED ON              
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO                      
OCCUR...IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION              
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TN...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS               
SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGHOUT            
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -VINCENT                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS                  
OVER NORTH CAROLINA INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON              
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
THE LATEST NAM...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ADVANCED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH POSITION THURSDAY MORNING... TO                   
WHERE THURSDAY COULD TURN OUT ENTIRELY DRY. THE CANADIAN AND NAVY               
NOGAPS CONTINUE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND LINGER RAIN CHANCES                 
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH TO REMOVE RAIN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DELAY               
DRYING OUT THE EAST UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. IF THE MORNING MODELS                    
CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND...THE EAST MAY END UP BEING DRY THURSDAY               
AS WELL.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACCEPTED. MORNING LOWS 68 TO 73.              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 88 TO 93. -RLH                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
INITIALLY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL                
BACK TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING VORTEX                    
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.            
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND MCS            
BEARING REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
THROUGH SATURDAY... IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTENDANT THE SOUTHERN CANADA VORTEX. THEN AS THE               
TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS... ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET MAY CREEP                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
THUS...INITIALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ON FRIDAY -- IN THE WAKE OF              
THE TROUGH FROM THE SHORT TERM -- MAY MOISTEN RATHER QUICKLY FROM               
THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E                  
ADVECTION AND LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ALOFT (PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF              
AN MCV) PROVIDE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WILL                    
ACCORDINGLY DELAY POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE                      
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS... THEN CARRY A CHANCE POP INTO THE                
LATE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF MCS                   
RESIDUALS FROM THE TN VALLEY.                                                   
THIS TREND OF RESIDUAL MCS ACTIVITY OR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE                  
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION FROM UPSTREAM MCV`S OR DIFFICULT TO TIME            
LOW AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL THEN                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST               
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND WITHIN A             
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES FOR LOWS. -MWS                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.               
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE RWI/FAY TAF                 
SITES...WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RDU AND THE LEAST CHANCE AT INT/GSO.            
SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAIL ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.             
AT THIS TIME WILL COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY ADDING A                
SCT060CB TO ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE                 
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY                
ALSO PROMOTE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING             
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. -VINCENT/MWS                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ009>011-                       
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...MWS                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT/MWS                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING            
THE CENTURY MARK. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                 
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...                                                        
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NJ                
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE             
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND WV. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS IA/IL/IN/OH. A             
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED THROUGH THE                 
OHIO VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAS LOCATED OVER THE             
SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS...HEADED SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY TOWARD CENTRAL               
NC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.           
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT 850MB...THERE WAS DECENT               
SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN NC (RNK 30KT NORTHWEST                
WIND...GSO 10KT WESTERLY WIND).                                                 
TODAY:                                                                          
THE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY                
CHALLENGING...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE LARGE MCS THAT PROPAGATED INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REMNANT OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TOWARD CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z...AND WAS LOCATED                
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST            
VA AND NORTHWEST NC. THE FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS:                                
CONVECTION:                                                                     
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES...               
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF 1.31". FCST                   
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.             
EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THEIR PRESENT VALUES IN THE               
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE              
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THE BIG                
QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR            
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AT PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADED THIS WAY IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL            
FOCUS...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY MAY MIX OUT/WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN ONCE            
IT SPILLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT             
OF NC...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE HOW MUCH LIFT WILL BE                 
ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALREADY INITIATING                
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. THE WEAK 250MB SHORTWAVE JUST WEST              
OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT               
THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF LIFT IN ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL NC...KEEPING               
THE BEST DPVA (ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER SOUTH OVER GA/SC.                
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY COME FROM THE                    
SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES. GIVEN STRONG             
DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY FAR                      
INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL WINDS            
WILL ALLOW. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE (30%) POPS ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY             
AND A FEW POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR LIFT...WHICH MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO                
PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER FOR A `HIGHER` CHANCE. WILL NEED TO              
WATCH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...HOWEVER...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT            
THE SEABREEZE MAY INDEED PUNCH INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO ENHANCE CHANCES             
IN THAT AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY            
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH             
A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.                         
TEMPERATURES:                                                                   
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR INTO THE AREA THE                   
REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PENETRATE...AND HOW MUCH CLOUD                
COVER / CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH/EAST SHOULD HAVE             
NO PROBLEM MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON             
BASED ON THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE THE TRIAD AREA MAY TOP            
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...DEPENDING HOW MUCH (IF ANY) AIRMASS                  
MODIFICATION OCCURRED IN ASSOC/W THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE.                  
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...               
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON IN              
RESPONSE TO STRONG DIURNAL MIXING. IF THIS OCCURS AS EXPECTED...                
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 104F THIS AFTERNOON.                  
HOWEVER...IF THEY SOMEHOW MANAGE TO STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR               
70F...THEN HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 105F FOR A FEW HOURS IN               
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SANDHILLS...COASTAL PLAIN AND POTENTIALLY THE             
TRIANGLE AREA AS WELL. IF THIS OCCURRED...WE WOULD TECHNICALLY BE AT            
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY                
WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...PREFER TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT                
ADVISORY...AND WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAT IN             
THE HWO.                                                                        
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER/MID            
70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TO              
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL PAST SUNSET                
AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR WEST...BASED ON              
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO                      
OCCUR...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO              
SUPPORT CONVECTION. -VINCENT                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS                  
OVER NORTH CAROLINA INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON              
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
THE LATEST NAM...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ADVANCED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH POSITION THURSDAY MORNING... TO                   
WHERE THURSDAY COULD TURN OUT ENTIRELY DRY. THE CANADIAN AND NAVY               
NOGAPS CONTINUE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND LINGER RAIN CHANCES                 
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH TO REMOVE RAIN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DELAY               
DRYING OUT THE EAST UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. IF THE MORNING MODELS                    
CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND...THE EAST MAY END UP BEING DRY THURSDAY               
AS WELL.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACCEPTED. MORNING LOWS 68 TO 73.              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 88 TO 93. -RLH                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
INITIALLY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL                
BACK TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING VORTEX                    
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.            
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND MCS            
BEARING REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
THROUGH SATURDAY... IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTENDANT THE SOUTHERN CANADA VORTEX. THEN AS THE               
TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS... ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET MAY CREEP                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
THUS...INITIALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ON FRIDAY -- IN THE WAKE OF              
THE TROUGH FROM THE SHORT TERM -- MAY MOISTEN RATHER QUICKLY FROM               
THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E                  
ADVECTION AND LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ALOFT (PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF              
AN MCV) PROVIDE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WILL                    
ACCORDINGLY DELAY POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE                      
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS... THEN CARRY A CHANCE POP INTO THE                
LATE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF MCS                   
RESIDUALS FROM THE TN VALLEY.                                                   
THIS TREND OF RESIDUAL MCS ACTIVITY OR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE                  
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION FROM UPSTREAM MCV`S OR DIFFICULT TO TIME            
LOW AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL THEN                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST               
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND WITHIN A             
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES FOR LOWS. -MWS                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 720 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.              
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
AND ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED RAIN-COOLED MESO-HIGH... GENERATED BY AN              
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... WAS SITUATED             
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT SUNRISE THIS               
MORNING. PURE EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT ON THE DOORSTEP              
OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 15Z... THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO KFAY BY            
18Z. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE HEATING WILL HAVE SUFFICIENTLY                 
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BY 15Z... SO ASIDE FROM A BRIEF WIND                
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST... THE BOUNDARY MAY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE AT              
WESTERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER... IT MAY TRIGGER RENEWED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES AT KRDU... AND ESPECIALLY KFAY             
AND KRWI... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES BY               
THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LIKELY                
DEVELOP TO THE WEST... ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS AND IN             
THE FOOTHILLS. THESE STORMS COULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE KGSO              
AND KINT VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HAVE                    
INCLUDED ONLY A CB CLOUD GROUP IN THE TAFS GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT             
UNCERTAIN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE               
FORECAST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE                   
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ENERGY FOR STRONG                  
(POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.                   
LOOKING BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING... THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.            
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY ALSO PROMOTE              
MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING THURSDAY                 
THROUGH SATURDAY. -MWS                                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...MWS                                                                 
AVIATION...MWS                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                   
SOME OF THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OF THE SUMMER IS ON OUR             
DOORSTEP AND SHOULD BE WELL IN PLACE BY LATE WED...WHEN 00Z MODELS              
ARE QUITE AGREEABLE TO LOCAL MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. THIS MAKES              
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDER AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS AN UPPER              
RIDGE AXIS PEAKS OVER ND TODAY AND IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT AND             
TWO IF NOT THREE S/W`S...EACH GROWING IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE PRIMARY             
WAVE PASSES ON THU. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC             
SCALE AND AS A RESULT THE FCST DATABASE IS A MIX OF ALL...THOUGH IT             
IS WORTH NOTHING THAT THE 00Z GFS IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION 06-18Z WED.            
THE MODEL ALSO INITIALIZED SFC DEWPOINT FIELDS POORLY AND THIS HAS              
PROPAGATED UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z...THOUGH ITS MOS PRODUCTS RESOLVE THE             
SITUATION MORE CLEARLY. AS A RESULT...A BIT MORE WEIGHT WAS PUT INTO            
THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WITH THIS RELEASE.                                         
FIRST...LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING ELEVATED CONVECTION            
IN THE FAR SW ATTM. RADAR SIGNATURES SUGGEST ENOUGH STRENGTH TO                 
SUPPORT SOME HAIL. THE 06Z RUC KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY AROUND IN                    
THE SW INTO THE MORNING HOURS.                                                  
MOIST SE FLOW STRENGTHENS THE NEXT 36 HRS...REFLECTED IN SFC WINDS              
WHICH GET GUSTY IN THE SW LATE TDY AND CENTRAL WED WHEN MODELS MIX              
TO NEARLY 800 MB WHERE 30KT WINDS RESIDE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO                
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY TO OUR WEST...WHICH ALSO                
ORGANIZES A SFC COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MT BY 12Z WED...SHIFTING IT TO            
NEAR A KISN-KDIK CORRIDOR 21-00Z WED AND SHOVING IT THROUGH KJMS THU            
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST-IMPACT WX               
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT TWO OTHER RISKS PRESENT THEMSELVES...               
1/POTENTIAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION IN WSTRN ND LATE AFTN/EVE TDY AND              
2/ NEWLY-DEVELOPED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND/OR A WEAKENING MCS MOVING            
INTO THE AREA FROM MT AFT 06Z TONIGHT. WHERE 1/ IS CONCERNED...THE              
MODELS ARE IN DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH A VORT MAX IN NW WY ATTM...WITH              
THE 00Z GFS SHOVING IT INTO SW ND BY 00Z WED WHILE THE 00Z NAM TAKES            
IT ON A MORE NRLY COURSE INTO MT. WE DO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE             
OF 600 J/KG IN THE FAR SW LATE TDY...BUT THE DEEPER BUOYANCY IS                 
FURTHER WEST IN MT. THAT SAID...IF MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT MUCH               
THEN SBCAPE WILL BE HIGHER. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WITH THE MOVEMENT               
OF THE VORT...A GFS SOLUTION PORTENDING SCT TSRA BY 00Z AND THE NAM             
KEEPING IT DRY. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP SLGT CHANCE POPS IN THE              
DATABASE. NUMBER 2/ HAS GREATER CERTAINTY AS A 40-45KT LLJ AND                  
NOTABLE 850 THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION AFT 06Z                 
TONIGHT. LENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND PWATS TO 1.5                
INCHES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AND A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE              
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS AVAILABLE TO ELEVATED                 
PARCELS. THUS THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY 09-15Z WED OVER               
CENTRAL ND...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FOR ELEVATED               
HAILERS ON THE LLJ. THE 00Z NAM CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO IN ITS            
QPF FIELDS. THE THREAT OF AN MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MT IS                
ALSO NON-ZERO...AND IT COULD BE THAT THE EVENTUAL CONVECTION IS SOME            
COMBINATION OF BOTH NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ANY PRE-EXISTING MCS.                   
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE INITIATION OF SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG THE               
COLD FRONT LATE WED AFTN. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG                  
DIABATIC HEATING WILL PUSH MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500+ J/KG. MODERATE MID            
LVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...                     
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE                 
INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE TO ERODE                 
CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE ON AN ORGANIZED SVR EVENT IS              
INCREASING. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WED NIGHT IS FOCUSED               
OVER SD/NE AND THAT THE UPPER JET IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...            
SO IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW LONG-LIVED OUR EVENT WILL BE.                        
WAVE NUMBER THREE FINALLY SHIFTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON THU. THE                
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE PASSED THRU THE FA WED NIGHT...WHICH                
MAKES THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO MORE DIFFICULT DURING THIS PERIOD. 00Z            
SFC WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LITTLE RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...            
SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY TRUE. WE COULD WIND UP WITH SOME             
NEW /ALBEIT WEAK/ CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE AREA THU AFTN. IF THIS             
IS THE CASE THE THUNDER THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED.  REGARDLESS...WE              
REMAIN UNSTABLE AND HENCE WE HAVE ADDED SLGT CHANCE POPS TO THE FCST            
DATABASE IN THIS PERIOD.                                                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00 UTC GFS AND             
BLENDED WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF WHEN APPROPRIATE IN GRIDS THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED              
POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA             
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS OVER                
NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST...LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY FROM                    
THURSDAYS SYSTEM SHOULD COOL MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE              
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED                   
CONVECTION. THE SECOND...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                 
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA ALL THE WAY SOUTH            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OF                 
THERMAL PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SUPPORTS MCS FORMATION ON                
SUNDAY/MONDAY. OF COURSE...TIMING LOW-PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES IS                
VERY DIFFICULT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THEY MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD            
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT TIMING ISSUES TO RESOLVE THEMSELVES             
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.                                                      
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE                   
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE SITS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE            
MOVING EASTWARD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH            
PLAINS DEEPENS AND APPROACHES EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA              
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW-LEVEL                      
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD              
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL            
REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE UNTIL AFTER DARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CJS/NH/SCHECK                                                                   
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1006 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK AND EXPECT NO CHANGES TO              
ONGOING FORECAST. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES               
AND ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES. 12Z NAM/RUC CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON ARE NEAR THE EXPECTED MAX T...SO CURRENT TEMP FORECAST                
IN GOOD SHAPE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FA NOW...AND ANOTHER NORTH             
OF INL/BDE PROPAGATING DUE SOUTH. LIFT FROM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE                 
HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE VERY WEAK SHOWERS THIS MORNING EAST OF THE                
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THESE HAVE DISSIPATED AND EXPECT A BRIEF QUIET                
PERIOD. LIFT FROM SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EXTREME               
NE FA LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS HANDLE THIS WELL.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO                    
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 4-6KFT. KBJI HAS THE BEST                    
CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED TSTORM...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY WITH MINIMAL                  
COVERAGE EXPECTED.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS                 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE GFS HANDLING CURRENT                   
SHORTWAVE BETTER SO WILL UTILIZE. A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER                
CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH. THUNDER HAS DISSIPATED IN OUR                 
AREA...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN SD INTO IA.                    
FOR TODAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER IN THE FAR NE WITH MUCAPES                
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP FOR              
THUNDER HERE. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF FORCING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY                
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER. A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE                      
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE                 
OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER                 
THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPS.             
ON TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE               
DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP              
BOOST TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP                   
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.                                      
WED-THU...A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND BRING THE THREAT FOR               
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROFILES INCREASE BY WED                
AFTERNOON...AND PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED NIGHT.                    
INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT STRONG FORCING                 
AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MEAN SHOWERS AND               
STORMS BY WED EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THU. TEMPS MAY BE AFFECTED                
BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND SOME AREAS MAY BE COOLER                  
FROM LACK OF INSOLATION. AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE MAY WARM ABOVE             
NORMAL THOUGH.                                                                  
BY FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT                  
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY...BUT THE GFS                
IS QUITE BULLISH WITH A THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE MAY NEED TO ADD               
POPS EVENTUALLY...AND WILL MENTION TO DAY SHIFT.                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SAT/SUN SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1001 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT              
WILL TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH                
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY                      
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER                  
WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
NOW THAT MCS HAS TAKEN SHAPE BACK ACROSS ILLINOIS...HAVE BUMPED UP              
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA...AS IT SHOULD CONTINUE               
TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE                  
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING                 
THE PRIMARY THREAT.                                                             
-------------------------------------------------------------------             
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS REMAINING TO OUR EAST AND                    
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. STILL THINK THERE IS A             
POSSIBILITY OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY             
OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THE LATEST RUC              
IS HINTING AT A BIT OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND THIS WOULD               
ENHANCE THE FORCING. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE            
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD BE THE BEST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
WHAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EVENTS FOR TUES AS              
DIFFUSE FRNTL BNDRY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH THRU OH VLY AND PERSISTENT                
UPR LO SPIRALS OVER THE GRT LKS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE OP                
GFS SOLN FROM SUNDAY WHICH WAS HOLDING BACK PASSAGE OF THE MAIN                 
UPR TROF AXIS UNTIL ERLY WED. PRESENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED MID                    
MISSISSIPPI VLY MCS AND ITS EFFECTS ON REGION IN THE MORNING WILL               
DETERMINE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR AFTN CONVECTION. WILL                
MAINTAIN CHC POPS THRU THE DAY TUES WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS                  
ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA INVOF FRNTL BNDRY AND WHERE MOST UNSTABLE                
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE LOCATED. IF ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME MODERATELY               
UNSTABLE...THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN...                    
PARTICULARLY DURING AFTN HOURS AS ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED TO PASS                  
THRU REGION. 90KT UPR JET ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF WILL                 
ACCENTUATE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER FCST AREA AS WELL.                               
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF REGION TUES NIGHT AS UPR TROF AXIS SWINGS               
IN. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF DECREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH                  
THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE LWR GRT LKS.                   
SLUGGISH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO FRNTL BNDRY MAY KEEP PCPN LINGERING              
ACRS FAR SRN FCST AREA ALL NIGHT. UPR TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF              
THE REGION WED WITH SFC HI PRES BRINGING COOLER/DRIER WX INTO THE               
OH VLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.                                    
TEMPS...FWC GUID PROVIDED A NICE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN (FROM                  
WARMER MAV/COOLER MET) FOR TEMPS TUES/TUES NIGHT AND TRENDED                    
TOWARDS ITS NUMBERS. MAV GUID LOOKED REASONABLE FOR WED AND WED                 
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE                    
MEAN...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE HPC FORECAST.                                  
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PESKY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PIVOT            
NORTHWARD INTO NRN QUEBEC.  THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO                
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA            
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL            
NOW MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  HENCE...I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY            
DURING THE DAY.  AGAIN...WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK...HAVE KEPT LOW              
CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ATTM.                                  
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF               
MAY REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS SE CANADA...NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE               
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  ATTM...IT APPEARS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK            
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.                 
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.                                              
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                   
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THEY WILL AVERAGE NEAR              
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                 
VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION ON BOTH THE RADAR                  
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE PAST HOUR...SOME        
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FIRED ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES JUST              
EAST OF THE COLUMBUS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRAINING EAST                 
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE REMAINING TO               
THE EAST OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL PLAN ON             
KEEPING BOTH OF THOSE SITES DRY TO START OFF WITH AT VALID TIME.                
MEANWHILE...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY CURRENTLY              
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS                 
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH...AND THE LATEST RUC                
IS HANGING ON TO SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITIES...PARTICULARLY              
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK                    
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA...WILL                
LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO OUR AREA LATER              
TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY A BIT OF AN                         
INCREASING 925-850 MB JET LATE TONIGHT. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR                   
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH SO WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPO                   
GROUP FOR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR KCVG                
AND KLUK...AND THEN JUST A VCTS FOR KILN/KDAY...AND THEN KEEP KCMH              
AND KLCK DRY.                                                                   
IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PCPN                   
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER..AIRMASS SHOULD                  
THEN DESTABILIZE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO                
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THINK BEST                  
CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE                   
PROGGED TO BE THE HIGHEST AND BETTER CHANCE EXIST FOR FORCING                   
ALONG LEFTOVER BOUNDARY.                                                        
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...JGL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
AVIATION...JGL                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
315 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DISTURBANCES RUNNING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A CHANCE               
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A                
WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT...IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN WHERE AND              
IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE. A BOUNDARY FROM AN OLD COMPLEX WELL                    
UPSTREAM...SWEPT SOUTHEAST AND DISSOLVED INTO THE AREA TO PROVIDE A             
BIT OF A STABILIZING EFFECT WHILE VEERING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST            
AND ELIMINATING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. A SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPED BUT             
THEN PARTED AROUND THE OLD STABLE POOL OF THE FIRST ONE...WITH                  
ONGOING STORMS NOW WELL NORTH IN NORTHERN OHIO...AND WELL SOUTHWEST             
OF US IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY /AND THOSE ARE PRESSING SOUTHEAST AND WILL            
MISS THE CWA/. SO WE HAVE BEEN IN A VOID WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE                
ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...AS                
WELL AS THE RUC...STILL SUGGEST NEW ACTIVITY SLIDING SOUTHWARD OUT              
OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. HINTS OF THE START OF THIS ACTIVITY             
CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN INDIANA. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS NEVER             
REALLY CAPTURED THE INTENSE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE END             
RESULT IS AN IFFY CHANCE FORECAST IN WHICH I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO                
HAVE BEEN MORE DETERMINISTIC. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD              
HAVE STRONG GUSTS WITH IT...CONSIDERING THE SHEAR /ESPECIALLY WEST/.            
THE FRONT SETTLES MIDWAY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN                  
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY OUT OF AHEAD OF INCOMING FINAL WAVE             
OF LOW PRESSURE. I PLACED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE                  
FRONT...AS THIS TIME WE WILL HAVE MUCH MORE OF A SURFACE FOCUS                  
COMPARED TO TODAY...WHILE STILL HAVING THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.            
GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST...I                     
PREFERRED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.                 
HIGHS TUESDAY ARE A BLEND OF MET AND MAV.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                          
THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH             
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS                  
PERIOD. THIS WILL NOT ONLY KEEP ANY HEAT WAVES AWAY FROM OUR                    
AREA...BUT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 80S. THERE IS EVEN STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON A             
FAIRLY STRONG COOL FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY            
WITH THE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO CARVE OUT THIS UPPER                   
TROUGH. PRIOR TO THIS FRONT ARRIVAL WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING            
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS                
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH                
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.            
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS            
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY             
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY                 
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
MODELS AGREE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL              
BE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO MODEL AGREEMENT ON A                   
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COOL             
FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY              
INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY AND LESS HUMID                  
SIDE...WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S. BY FRIDAY                         
NIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL               
BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD AGAIN...LEADING TO                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COOL             
FRONT...DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS.                          
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...AND             
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                  
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AREAWIDE...CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS         
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KY...WHILE THE             
SAME FEATURE RUNNING ALONG COLD FRONT IS HELPING OTHER THUNDERSTORMS            
TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OH. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME                   
DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECAUSE OF COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
CURRENT AND EARLIER CONVECTION. TERMINALS WILL SPEND MOST OF THE                
TIME AT VFR...BUT ANY CELL PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD COULD CREATE               
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. MOIST                      
ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR VIS FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH            
PERHAPS IFR FOR KCRW AND ESPECIALLY KEKN...DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD              
COVER. ALSO...WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO AREA...STILL AT LEAST A             
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z TUESDAY/...                                         
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV                                                              
NEAR TERM...MDP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...MDP                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
307 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SAG                    
SOUTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE                 
COLD FRONT BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO NOW EXITING SRN SOMERSET/BEDFORD CNTYS ATTM.                
PIT BASE V SIGNATURES WERE IN EXCESS OF 50KTS AT 3-6KFT AGL. RUC                
ANAL ALONG WITH IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCV HAS NOW MOVED INTO                 
WCENT PA...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA EVIDENT ON RADAR FM THE MID SUSQ VLY              
NWWD BACK INTO THE NW MTNS. BROADBRUSHED SCHC/CHC POPS AFT 06Z                  
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TWD DAWN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE WEST. THE HIGH AMBIENT                
MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AND PERHAPS               
STRATUS AGAIN IN THE MORNING. HAVE MADE CLOUD COVER RATHER                      
DARK/DISMAL IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT LAST AFTER               
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST AND EXITING STAGE RIGHT. SOME FOG              
POSSIBLE THERE...TOO...BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE WEST/CENTRAL. MINS                
WILL BE MILD/MUGGY AGAIN.                                                       
LOOK FOR A SIMILAR DAY TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH HOT TEMPS IN THE             
SE AND COOLER/NEARER-NORMAL TEMPS IN THE NW. FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR            
AFTN CONVECTION STILL IN DOUBT AT THIS POINT...BUT THOSE DEAD MCS/S             
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION ARE THE BIG SUSPECTS AT THIS               
TIME. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCT/CHC RANGE FOR NOW...AND MAKE IT                 
MOSTLY IN THE AFTN.                                                             
LATEST SREF DATA SUGGEST HIGHEST CHC OF RAIN TUES NIGHT WILL BE IN              
THE WEST - ESP THE SW...AS MODELS WANT TO DROP AN MCS RIGHT THRU                
SWRN PA OVERNIGHT. FELT A GOOD MOVE WAS TO BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY                
CATEGORY FOR THE SW...AND KEEP CHCS FOR THE REST AT THIS RANGE.                 
TIMING AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT...OR LACK THEREOF...WILL TELL THIS              
TALE. KEPT MINS VERY MILD/MUGGY AGAIN. IT IS...AFTER ALL...THE                  
HEIGHT OF SUMMER - WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS /CLIMATOLOGICALLY/ UPON               
US FOR ALL OF THE NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
YESTERDAY I HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN PUT A CHC INTO THE SE FOR WED AM.                      
YESTERDAY THE GFS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING                      
UP FOR MID WEEK...BUT I DID NOT WANT TO MAKE THE WHOLE WEEK WET.                
WITH THIS TREND STILL TODAY...LEFT MEINTON OF SHOWERS AND STORMS                
IN FOR WED...THAT MID SHIFT ADDED...AND ADDED CHC FOR WED NIGHT.                
GFS SLIGHTLY LESS GLOOMY AND FASTER THAN NAM WITH SYSTEM WED...BUT              
COULD STILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...EVEN HEAVY RAIN                  
EVENT...WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR LATE JULY. ONLY              
HAVE ISSUED ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THIS SEASON...AND THAT WAS THE              
OTHER EVENING WHEN I WAS WORKING. THIS HAS BEEN A WET SUMMER SO                 
FAR...JUST HAVE NOT HAD THE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN SO                   
FAR THIS SEASON.                                                                
IF ONE IS LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER...IT LOOKS LIKE THU                           
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAYS. THE OLD FRONT                              
STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AT BEST...AND STARTS TO WORK BACK                          
TO THE NW BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW                         
COLD FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ON SAT.                                               
WENT WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO                          
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
IR IMAGERGY INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SLIDING IN BEHIND EVENING            
CONVECTION. FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EVERWHERE BY 08Z AND                      
PERSISTING THRU SUNRISE.                                                        
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS MID-LVL                
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EACH OF THE NEXT                   
SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRESENT LOW CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH IT DOES              
NOT APPEAR THESE WILL BE LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE PIECES. BY SATURDAY              
YET ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN BRINGING WITH IT MORE SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.                                              
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD                                                   
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                            
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR                                                         
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD AND ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STALL                  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHILE WEAK               
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A REINFORCING COLD              
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                               
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE FOCUS IS ON               
WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. RUC AND NAM ARE TARGETING THE                    
MOUNTAINS...NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR                 
CONVECTION. CURRENT LAPS CAPE AND REGIONAL RADARS SUPPORTS THIS                 
IDEA. ALSO...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SPC WATCH               
OVER TN WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS..SO WILL HAVE SOLID/HIGH            
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...TRENDING               
LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE. WITH CAPES IN THE 1000-2000J RANGE           
AND DCAPES AROUND 1000J SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.              
50-55DBZ CORES AROUND 28K FT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR WIND AND              
AROUND 33K FR FOR SVR HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND             
THEN REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT. USED A MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS. WILL               
ALSO GO AHEAD AN CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF                  
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX COMING UP SHY OF THE NEEDED 105                    
CRITERIA.                                                                       
ON THU...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER FAIRLY                
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER DYNAMICS NOT BAD EITHER             
AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT LAPSE               
RATES AND PVA. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONT WITH THE NAM THE               
FASTER OF THE MODELS. WILL USE THE SREF WHICH IS CLOSE TO A                     
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM. HENCE...WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO             
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE DUE TO CLOUDS/STORMS....BUT OUTSIDE            
OF THE MOUNTAINS TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO            
MID 90S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH               
ONGOING CONVECTION AT SOUTHERN END OF RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH MOVING FROM GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. SOME TIMING AND              
DETAIL DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS... BUT GFS... NAM... AND SREF             
INDICATE UNSTABLE AIR... DIVERGENCE ALOFT... AND CONVERGENT FLOW IN             
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z                 
THURSDAY. 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN                  
CANADA BY THURSDAY MORNING... BUT APPEARS THAT WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT               
FIELD AT SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH WILL NOT PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD.             
THUS... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF COAST OF NORTHEASTERN            
STATES BUT EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CAROLINAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.               
BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE AND MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING DAY THURSDAY... PRIMARILY ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS DEPICTION OF MOISTURE AND                 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WHICH INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE PRIMARILY TO APPROACH OF NEXT TROUGH AND               
FRONT FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN 80S AND LOWER            
90S... NOT QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER IN WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING            
FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. I PRIMARILY USED THE 00Z/22 ECMWF FOR            
THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES EAST COAST                     
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A BIT ON SAT               
AND SUN AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STRONG RIDGE              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS...BEFORE             
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A REINFORCING SHOT            
OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE            
SURFACE...THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST AND                 
UNSTABLE LLVL AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS                  
SOUTHWARD MON AND TUES. OVERALL...HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES              
TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A SOLID CHC OF CONVECTION THROUGH              
TUES.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE           
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVED OVER AN AIR               
FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT              
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS THEN MAY PROPOGATE INTO THE                 
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE              
MENTION OF CB IN THE TAFS FROM ABOUT 21Z-01Z EXCEPT 20Z-01Z AT KAVL.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z. MOST GUIDANCE                  
INDICATES SOME MINOR RESTRICTION TO VSBY AROUND SUNRISE...SO HAVE               
INCLUDED HZ AND VSBYS 5-6SM.                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO              
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A CB GROUP AFTER 16Z AT ALL SITES...THOUGH             
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR SITES LIKE KAND.                                 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING WILL MOVE E AND S OF THE REGION             
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                  
BRIEFLY BUILD S PROVIDING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO                
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE             
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY               
MAY OCCUR IN THE THUNDERSTORM...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG            
WHERE RAIN FALLS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...LG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...LGL                                                                
LONG TERM...BSH                                                                 
AVIATION...LG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1057 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SLOWLY             
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STALL                
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE              
WEEK...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A             
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE                
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
TEMPS NOT RISING QUITE AS FAST TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY OUTSIDE            
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SOME DEBRIS CI AND PROBABLY SOME EVAPORATIVE            
EFFECTS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED YESTERDAY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED            
THE MAX TEMP GRID DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO AS A RESULT. SFC                     
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE SOME AS DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO                
EVAPORATION AND ADVECTION AS WINDS SWING TO THE S THIS AFTERNOON.               
THEREFORE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF                  
105...SO SEE NO REASON TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF THE                    
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY            
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000J               
RANGE. RUC AND 12Z NAM TARGETING MOUNTAINS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD                  
COVERAGE BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES WITH SOME OF            
THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS THIS            
EVENING. ESSENTIALLY JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING IN              
THE POP FIELD.                                                                  
SOME SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.              
DCAPE`S AGAIN LOOK TO BE AROUND 1000J...SO SVR DOWNBURSTS ARE A                 
THREAT AGAIN. INITIAL EVALUATION LOOKS LIKE 50-55DBZ CORES AROUND               
28K FT FOR SVR DOWNBURSTS AND AROUND 33K FT FOR SVR HAIL.                       
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION                
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...GFS CONTINUES HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                 
ISSUES SO LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND. CLOSED H5 LOW             
OVER E GREAT LAKES AND ASSOC E US TROF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WED. AT               
THE SAME TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
ADD DEEP MOISTURE WITH CAPES AROUND 2000J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ALL THE            
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS. EVEN THO H5 HEIGHTS               
DECREASE AND MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESS STAYS              
FAIRLY HIGH. SO ALTHO GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN TUE...A MODEL BLEND               
YIELDS TEMPS STILL ABOVE AVG... RANGING FROM L-M90S TO U80S                     
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH U70S TO M80S MTNS.                                
NAM/GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF PUSHING FRONT S WED NIGHT-THU AND AM                  
LEANING TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF. UPPER SUPPORT WANES AS H5 TROF BEGINS              
TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE THU AND SFC FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY S...SO                
HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.             
EXPECT HIGHS THU AROUND 90 S CWA...U80S N...WITH U70S-M80S MTNS.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING WEAK SFC                
BOUNDARY S AND STALLING IT OUT JUST S OF CWA FRI...AS WEAK HIGH                 
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE N. WITH NO SIG AIRMASS CHANGE               
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH                 
TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG. E COAST TROF DEEPENS AGAIN LATE               
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.             
WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE               
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...A CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WINDS HAVE STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED             
AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. HIGH CEILINGS FROM THE ANVILS OF                  
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AT THE SC TAF SITES. BY MID MORNING              
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS...WHILE CUMULUS FORMS WITH                 
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT                   
MIDDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ERNEST. COVERAGE WILL            
ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO BE CARRIED IN THE VICINITY OF KAVL...HOWEVER              
CUMULONIMBUS WILL BE CARRIED AT EACH TAF SITE. BY EARLY EVENING                 
CONVECTION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE WINDS BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT            
AND VARIABLE. ANVIL DEBRIS FORM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE CEILING               
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS HAVE BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUD              
COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY CARRIES MVFR FOG AT KAVL...AND ONLY FOR A            
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.                                       
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WED AS A COLD            
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE                        
FRONT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THU             
AND CONTINUING ON FRI. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...AND               
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS             
AND VISIBILITY IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER...WITH MVFR                     
VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ026-028-029.            
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ070-071-082.            
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ004>014-019.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...LG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RB                                                                 
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...LG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
250 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWSHIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL              
ROCKIES. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG OVER SOUTH            
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH 250-500J/KG OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
AND THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING               
AND THE BLACK HILLS...MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 500-1000J/KG. A               
RELATIVELY STRONG CAP EXISTS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA...WITH A MUCH WEAKER CAP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE               
BLACK HILLS. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING             
AND THE BLACK HILL...ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING             
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.                   
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN                   
RESPONSE TO 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
TRAVELING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.             
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE               
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE                  
CENTRAL BASIN. MLCAPE RISES TO 1-1.5KJ/KG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH            
MLCIN AROUND 50J/KG. CAP SHOULD HOLD MOST OF DAY UNTIL INFLUENCE OF             
CENTRAL BASIN SHORTWAVE IS FELT. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN             
IMPULSE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ISOLATED              
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW POTENTIAL                 
GIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.                                                      
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA PUSHING A COLD FRONT             
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH              
MAY BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                         
EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE             
LONG TERM. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. A                
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING A FEW             
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL                   
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA SOUTH AND WESTWARD.              
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS.                   
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
117 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS KY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT                  
TRAJECTORY WILL PUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU             
LATER TODAY. LATEST 17Z RUC IS IN SUPPORT OF SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY            
ACROSS THE PLATEAU.                                                             
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE AND INCREASE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND                 
CENTRAL PLATEAU. WILL ALSO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTH                  
CENTRAL ZONES.                                                                  
OTW...TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S. DEW                  
POINTS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ARE NOW GENERALLY             
IN THE UPPER 60S.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
104 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS                
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED STRONG                 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE NUMEROUS                    
STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN                
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FOR WEEKS END.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS WEST THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF OUTFLOW              
AND INCREASE IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE OLD BOUNDARY OFF THE MCS HAS                 
STALLED. WITH OLD MCS EXITING TO THE NORTH AND FRONT STILL WELL TO              
THE NW EXACT COVERAGE OF ADDED CONVECTION IFFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
GUIDANCE OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LATEST NAM APPEARS               
TOO FAR EAST WITH SIG TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS TO THE                  
WEST WITH NEXT ROUND OF TSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. LOCAL WRF AND                 
LATEST RUC IN BETWEEN WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT WESTERN SLOPES TO THE               
BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE. MODIFIED               
MORNING RAOBS ALSO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CAPE WEST UNDER DEEPER RH                
AND LESS EAST. THINK DEEP BUT RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW COMBO WITH              
PASSING OUTFLOW MAY DELAY NEW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE NEXT S/W                       
APPROACHES ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BACK MORE SW LATER ON. THIS                     
SUPPORTS BETTER COVERAGE ALONG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL                
KEEP HIGHEST POPS AND LOW CHANCE EASTERN ZONES.                                 
OTRW ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING            
AROUND +22-23C AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.              
HOWEVER SIMILAR TO MONDAY THINK DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT A BIT                    
ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA                    
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. 12Z THICKNESS ALSO IN SUPPORT OF PUSHING                   
HIGHS TO AROUND 100 SE WITH MID/UPR 90S ELSW OVER THE EAST...BUT                
SLIGHTLY LOWER MID/UPR 80S FAR WEST WHERE WILL SEE MORE                         
CLOUDS/TSRA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                 
MORE STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN            
THE EAST...WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE             
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER              
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE REGION.                      
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SO               
WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS IN THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING.                     
DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.              
BY FRIDAY...THETA-E BOUNDARY BUCKLES BACK TO THE NORTH WITH HEAT AND            
HUMIDITY INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                           
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA...WE COULD               
SEE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD            
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO LOWER 90S           
IN THE PIEDMONT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY DISPLACING THE HEAT AND                      
HUMIDITY AT LEAST FROM THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WHILE THIS OCCURS...SHWS/TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS                
WEEKEND. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY                      
FIRST...WITH POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY                
WHEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALTHOUGH MANY COLD FRONTS HAVE                     
PERISHED BEFORE CLEARING THE NC/VA BORDER...IF SOME OF THE LR                   
MODELS VERIFY IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE                    
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PASS FAR                 
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A NICE STRING OF NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW                 
NORMAL TEMPS...AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
WEAK SINKING MOTION BEHIND EARLIER MCS CONTINUES TO SLOW CU AND                 
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH HEATING                
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA ESPCLY OVER THE WEST IN ADVANCE               
OF NEXT WEAK IMPULSE ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. BUFKIT                    
SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 20Z BUT THEN                     
LINGER SE WVA INTO TONIGHT. THUS WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF TSRA                  
ONSET AND INCLUDE VICINITY MENTION MOST SPOTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON               
THRU 00Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE ESPCLY VALLEYS WHERE              
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. OTRW MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE                 
SHRA. COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW WED WITH ONGOING SHRA/TSRA                
BAND OR QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY TAKING PLACE                   
FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY INCLUDE SOME PREVAILING VSBY REDUCTION IN                
SE WVA IN THE MORNING OTRW RUNNING WITH CB MENTION BY MIDDAY FAR                
WEST.                                                                           
CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES                 
THROUGH WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ON THU UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                 
THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BY                
SAT OR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS                                                               
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS                                                              
SHORT TERM...RCS                                                                
LONG TERM...KM                                                                  
AVIATION...JH/JS                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                            
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH              
OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO                         
INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT               
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP                        
LAPSE RATES PER 22.15Z RUC OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
22.12Z GFS AND NAM INITIALIZE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND                           
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO              
REAL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED...THOUGH 22.12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                 
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH           
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...AS FAR AS HOW             
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA. BOTH             
MODELS AND 22.09Z SREF FOCUS MESO COMPLEX SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN                
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS LOW...BASED ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF              
THE MESO COMPLEX SYSTEM.                                                        
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO                    
CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA 18Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH                      
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET...AS                  
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER SURFACE RIDGE                  
MOVES OVER THE REGION AFTER 03Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST                    
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
THURSDAY AND NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL                
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.               
THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. BOTH THE 22.12Z GFS AND NAM IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND FOCUS MOISTURE            
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST            
AREA AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE BEST INSTABILITY AND           
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF                  
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL                
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING DECENT LIFT AND                 
CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z                   
FRIDAY.                                                                         
BOTH MODELS INDICATE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER               
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BEGIN                  
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                   
FRIDAY. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATING WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG              
SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS                     
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS             
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH PERIOD. THE                 
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE GFS MUCH STRONGER                  
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED           
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND            
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT OVER           
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.                       
ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INDICATES THE AXIS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION             
PROBABILISTIC WILL BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY                       
FORECAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THEN...BOTH MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER            
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLDER              
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SUNDAY                
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. BOTH THE                 
22.00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM PLUS 10                 
DEGREES CELSIUS TO PLUS 15 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. GOOD           
SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR MASS OVER FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE               
WITH TREND OF UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER INTO           
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY. ONLY ITEM WE ARE MONITORING IS THE VALLEY FOG POSSIBILITY            
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED AN MVFR TEMPO PERIOD AT KLSE FOR THIS                  
CHANCE. THE DRYING NORTHEAST WIND WILL WORK AGAINST THE FOG                     
FORMATION...BUT HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE AND PLANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
WILL WORK TOWARD BETTER FOG CHANCES. OVERALL WIND FIELD IS ABOUT 5              
KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KFT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FOG MAY BE LOCALIZED             
TO THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE MISS RIVER AND OFF OF THE KLSE FIELD                 
PROPER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ                                                           
AVIATION..........DAB                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...COOLER AND LESS                 
HUMID AIRMASS NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                    
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL                   
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPSTREAM                   
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A                    
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED                  
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. A LOW CLOUD               
DECK WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THE DOOR              
COUNTY AREA.                                                                    
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
PATCHY FOG SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT                 
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL CARRY EARLY MORNING FOG WORDING              
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING PICKS UP. MORNING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH                
FOR LOW STRATUS DECK AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST                      
WISCONSIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT DAYTIME HEATING LATER                
THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF DECK SHOULD PREVENT                 
THIS AREA FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.                                        
AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD                   
COMBINE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG TO BRING                 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO SHOWERS THIS                     
MORNING...AND HOLD OFF ON THE THUNDER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.                      
CORE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS THROUGH THE REGION                    
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING DRY                  
CONDITIONS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.                        
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 1000/500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING INTO             
THE UPPER 550S TO MID 560S DKM RANGE TODAY...SHOULD BRING COOLER                
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE                  
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FAHRENHEIT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A LESS                
HUMID DAY. THE PASSING HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST                 
WINDS TO OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGHS                
THERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                            
1000/500MB THICKNESSES THEN RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 560S                
DKM RANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS AND               
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY                 
FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER               
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IF DEW POINTS STAY HIGHER THAN                     
EXPECTED...COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG IN SPOTS.                                   
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN                 
COUNTIES...AS FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS                      
APPROACHES.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                   
POPS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND                  
FRIDAY AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER              
THAT...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH ANOTHER                  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF IFR AND PATCHY LIFR IN FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL JUST AFTER               
14Z. MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                    
TODAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 15 THSD FT...SO EXPECT SOME CU/SC                  
WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE                   
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOME MORNING FOG. THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE.                  
WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
334 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SMALL MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING                 
-SHRA/-TSRA CHANCE TODAY/TUE...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.                    
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WITH A TROUGH WEST             
INTO SOUTHERN WI. ANOTHER BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE             
WESTERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH/FRONT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB TO                  
SOUTHERN IA. BROAD BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MN. LOW             
LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE 300MB            
JET AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW/DIVERGENCE ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING FUELING A             
SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST NEB/WESTERN IA. COMPLEX              
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA...ALONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/             
THETA-E CONVERGENCE AXIS. SCT -SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN               
SD...IN WEAK 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND AHEAD             
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.                                                           
21.00Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL. MODELS OFFER RATHER                 
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY THRU WED NIGHT...BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME               
MESO-SCALE DIFFERENCES. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 21.00Z SHOWED                 
NAM/GFS RUNS OF 19.00Z AND 20.00Z VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL ACROSS               
NOAM/EASTERN PAC. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO GFS WITH THE                 
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CAN...AND TO NAM WITH THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.             
THRU 60HRS TREND IS STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT WITH TROUGHING OVER                
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVES/                   
TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY                  
SUFFERS IN THE 60-84HR TIME-FRAME. TROUGHING/UPPER LOW OVER THE                 
GREAT LAKES MUCH MORE PERSISTENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND MODELS                 
STRUGGLING WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW OVER THE              
WESTERN HALF OF NOAM. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED                 
NAM/GFS REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.             
PER WV IMAGERY...NAM APPEARED BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS                 
FROM ND TO SASKAT/MAN AND HUDSONS BAY AREA...BUT APPEARED OVERDONE              
WITH A FEATURE NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. PER MODEL QPF AND RADAR                  
TRENDS AROUND 06Z...BOTH MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEX OVER NEB/IA. GFS NOT GOOD BUT BETTER THAN NAM THRU 06Z. NAM             
LOOKING BETTER IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME-FRAME. LOCAL WRF MODEL DOING                 
BETTER WITH NEB/IA CONVECTION AT 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE 3 MODELS                  
STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...                
WHILE LOCAL RUC-WRF MODEL HANDLING THE EASTERN SD CONVECTION QUITE              
WELL. THUS...NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND TREND TOWARD A              
MODEL/ ENSEMBLE BLEND. GIVEN FORECAST HINGING ON NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE            
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.                                   
FOR THE SHORT TERM...FORCING FOR CONVECTION ACROSS IA WEAKENS/MOVES             
SOUTH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS             
SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THIS CONVECTION TO DROP SOUTH OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. PER WV IMAGERY...MODELS LOOK TOO WEAK WITH THE                   
SHORTWAVE AIDING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST               
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E                
CONVERGENCE WITH IT WEAKENS THRU 12Z AND DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO IA.               
MAY YET NEED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. 850-700MB TEMPS COOL OVER THE                 
AREA TODAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES. THIS            
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL WARMING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                   
RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. CONTINUED              
SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THEN                    
CONFINED IT TO NORTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER COOLER MID            
LEVEL TEMPS...FOR THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WV              
IMAGERY NEAR JAMES BAY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON.                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL             
MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MIXED-LAYER CAPES             
OF AROUND 500 J/KG FOR TUE AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE SHORTWAVE...A               
SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FOR TUE AFTERNOON APPEARS WARRANTED FOR NOW.            
DRIER AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON WED FOR A DRY...            
QUIET DAY. WITH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN/TROUGHING REMAINING                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT MAY WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU. TRIMMED            
RAIN CHANCE ON EAST END OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED NIGHT BUT LEFT A               
SMALL CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS FOR NOW TO BLEND WITH             
NEIGHBORING GRIDS.                                                              
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY/TUE. WITH LIGHT WINDS            
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF                 
GUIDANCE LOWS. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT. WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WED...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS              
AND RAISED THESE A BIT WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS.                
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF WED NIGHT AND LIGHT                   
WINDS...TRENDED LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TOWARD 21.00Z GFS MEX MOS               
VALUES.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
21.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN REASONABLY GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE THU THRU SUN PERIOD. TREND IS LESS            
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NOAM...             
ESPECIALLY BY SAT/SUN. THIS LEAVE THE UPPER MIDWEST MORE UNDER                  
NORTHWEST FLOW THRU THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. THE SLOWER...MORE BLOCKY                
FLOW PATTERN OVER EASTERN NOAM WOULD DELAY THE RAIN CHANCE INTO THE             
AREA THU...WITH RAIN CHANCES INTO FRI AND PERHAPS SAT. TREND WOULD              
ALSO BE A BIT COOLER/DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGION UNDER                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND A CANADIAN HIGH LOOKING TO DROP SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO DAYS 4-7 GRIDS FOR               
NOW. LEFT THIS TO DAY CREW...WHICH WILL HAVE HELP OF NATIONAL                   
DISCUSSIONS/ GUIDANCE TO HELP SORT OUT THE DETAILS/MODEL TRENDS AND             
MAKE NEEDED CHANGES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
NWLY FLOW AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL SERVE            
TO KEEP SMALL/ISOLD THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE            
OF DAYS...THOUGH NOT NEARLY WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE/CERTAINTY TO                   
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT EITHER SITE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE            
TAF PERIOD EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NWLY/NLY FLOW...GRADUALLY BACKING TO             
NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH              
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY WATCHING SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY             
OVER EASTERN SD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE             
WAY TO KRST...BUT SHOULD SEE BKN-OVC100-150 CEILINGS THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLD/SCT STORMS IN PEAK HEATING                     
/2PM-10PM/ OF LOW PREDICTABILITY AND COVERAGE AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF             
FORECAST FOR NOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........BINAU                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE            
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF THE SE              
U.S. COAST PER RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE. AT SFC...RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS              
CENTRAL FL AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT            
3 DAYS. JAX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED PWAT OF ABOUT 2 INCHES AND MEAN            
0-6KM WINDS FROM THE NW AT 5 KT. CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL               
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS BLANKETS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM EARLIER                    
CONVECTION OVER THE SE CONUS. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREA PLACES OVER THE             
SRN ZONES TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUNDS              
FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS ALREADY FORMING JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA.                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...CLOUDINESS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE               
INTO LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS OF                
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MAV POPS HAVE JUMPED UP TO 70-80% FOR TODAY             
WHICH LOOKS TOO HIGH. WILL GO CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOW               
END LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS. NAM SHOWS MORE THAN 2 IMPULSES AFFECTING            
THE REGION TODAY COMING IN FROM THE NW AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND             
SEA BREEZES THE LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODIFIED SOUNDING                  
YIELDS CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2500 J/G AND LI OF -6. GIVEN THE                    
RELATIVE HIGH PWAT AIR AND WEAK 0-6KM WINDS MAIN THREATS TODAY APPEAR           
TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.             
IN ADDITION...STORMS DON`T LOOK TO BE AS INTENSE AS THEY WERE ON TUE            
DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AT 500 MB AND GENERALLY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES.           
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND BEST           
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE OVER NE FL. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE                    
GUIDANCE BUT LEAN A BIT TOWARD THE MAV POPS WHICH HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 40% FOR TONIGHT.                                            
THURSDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT IS N OF THE AREA WILL BE SAGGING SWD            
AND RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA...MOST                   
FAVORED OVER NE FL. WILL GO WITH POPS AROUND 40-50% OVER NE FL AND              
30-40% FOR SE GA WHICH IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD             
BE A BIT WARMER AS HEIGHTS RISE A BIT. THU NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGING            
TRIES TO BUILD IN AND SFC TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL GA.                    
PLANNING ON POPS AT 20-30% FOR MAINLY EVENING CONVECTION.                       
FRIDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONT TO BUILD AS THE SE CONUS TROUGHING              
WANES. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SCT POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH             
LOWER CHANCES FOR SE GA WHERE WEAKER FORCING AND LOWER MOISTURE IS              
LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED WITH FEW POCKETS OF MID                
90S.                                                                            
.LONG TERM...SAT-TUE. SFC RIDGE CONTS OVER CENTRAL FL FOR THE                   
WEEKEND. LATEST GFS SHOWS ERN COAST TROUGHING TO BECOME                         
RE-ESTABLISHED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS SUSTAINING A CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECASTS. FOR NOW WILL              
KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY AND SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE            
IN TEMPS MOVING CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS                  
MORNING (09Z-12Z) DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED            
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH             
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TERMINALS AND HAVE              
INCLUDED VCTS BY 18Z AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN            
19Z-22Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SW TO S WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOCTURNAL SURGES AT                
NIGHT BUT BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. SEAS 2-4 FT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE                
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WITH STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MOVING                    
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  91  71  93  72 /  60  30  30  20                                           
SSI  88  75  89  76 /  50  40  30  20                                           
JAX  90  71  91  73 /  60  40  40  30                                           
SGJ  87  71  88  74 /  60  40  40  30                                           
GNV  89  71  90  73 /  60  40  50  30                                           
OCF  89  71  90  72 /  60  40  50  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
335 AM CDT                                                                      
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN ATTENTION              
WILL SHIFT TO NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE THURSDAY                           
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSES INDICATING LAST IN SERIES OF                   
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE                
TROUGH ACROSS JAMES BAY IS ROTATING BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS VORT WILL KEEP IT              
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE                    
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN              
THE 800-750 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN               
STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFOREMENTIONED              
VORT MAX TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS/SUBSIDENCE...CU                  
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND FORMING MOSTLY LIKELY AWAY                 
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS TODAY IN              
THE BALLPARK FROM YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MOST              
LOCATIONS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXED LAYER TODAY. NORTH WINDS                  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE COOLING AND HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE                   
MICHIGAN SHORELINE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO MID 70S. ELSEWHERE               
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.                                    
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY            
AIR MASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY EARLY               
THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HAVE CONTINUED              
IDEA OF MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY               
COOLER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. ATTENTION            
FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR                
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE MEAGER                  
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND GIVEN FAIRLY LARGE AMPLITUDE                 
TROUGH TO THE EAST...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EXIT.            
NAM OVER PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY FASTER IN BRINGING                 
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS               
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER LATEST FEW RUNS OF NAM ARE                     
SEEMINGLY COMING AROUND TO MORE OF A GFS IDEA IN A SLOWER ONSET OF              
WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION FORCING. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW GFS IDEA                
WITH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY                      
THURSDAY EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR                  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY               
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED AND INITIAL WAA/MID LEVEL                    
FRONTO FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SPENT WITH IN LOW/MID LEVEL                       
SATURATION. CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY END UP BEING MORE                    
TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS INCREASING BACK INTO                 
THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LARGER SCALE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO CONTINUE              
TO FAVOR SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF ANY MCS THAT FORMS TO THE WEST                
THURSDAY EVENING...SO NORTH-SOUTH POP GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT               
SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. DID CONTEMPLATE GOING WITH LIKELY               
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BUT AT THIS DISTANCE HAVE INCREASED TO                
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS. WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE                       
REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND INSTABILITY PROGS AT                 
THIS TIME DO NOT SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER                
THREAT.                                                                         
ON FRIDAY...DETAILS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL BECOME MORE BLURRY DUE TO               
THE EFFECTS OF THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE FACTORS.                  
GFS/NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHING                 
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN                   
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAY                
ALSO HAVE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT                
CONVECTION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ALSO IN QUESTION DEPENDING IN              
EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER. GIVEN ALL THESE                                  
UNCERTAINTIES...MAINTENANCE OF BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS                   
STILL SEEM IN ORDER FOR FRIDAY. MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS              
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING RACES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST US.                  
LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING LOW POPS ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH FOR FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN                 
TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A DRY SATURDAY WITH EXPECTATION MORE                
FAVORED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO                 
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH BEST CHANCE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY                
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE                  
WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN AND SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1252 AM CDT                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAFS...TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST              
PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON WIND/LAKE BREEZE.                                     
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT                
LAKES WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH WEST SIDE             
OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS WI/LAKE MICHIGAN. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES                  
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER...WITH UPSTREAM RAOBS DEPICTING              
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT                   
SAID...THERE HAS BEEN FEW/SCT MVFR STRATOCU OBSERVED NEAR LAKE                  
MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY AIDED BY LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST/SOUTH SHORE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUT OVER             
THE WATER DO DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OFF THE              
SURFACE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN              
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP A CEILING              
FROM DEVELOPING. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF FEW AT 2000 FT FOR                     
KORD/KMDW TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS                
MAINLY CLOSER TO LAKE AND INTO SE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA IMMEDIATELY                
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHORT WAVE             
OVER WI SLIDES SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TIME/HEIGHT                  
SECTIONS SHOWING INCREASING DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA            
THROUGH THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE/FEW DIURNAL              
CU DEVELOPING TODAY...WITH VFR BASES IN 5-6 KFT RANGE IF THEY DO.               
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGH CIRRUS ALONG            
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF UPPER JET. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TEMPO            
FOR DIURNAL MVFR FOG AT KRFD EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE RECENT ACARS            
VAPOR TRACE INDICATES MOISTURE IN LOWEST 800-1000 FT AND WINDS HAVE             
GONE CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES.                                                    
AS FOR WINDS...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH                  
GRADIENT. SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTHWEST LAND BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOP              
THROUGH SUNRISE FOR KORD/KMDW WHILE WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL FARTHER               
INLAND. GRADIENT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD             
ALLOW MORE NORTHEASTERLY LAKE PUSH TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.                   
SURFACE RIDGE THEN ACROSS NORTHERN IL TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO             
GO VRBL/CALM LATER THIS EVENING.                                                
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
306 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO               
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND INTO              
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING NORTH WINDS                
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST                
FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ON                
FRIDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                    
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO                
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                     
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA                 
NEARSHORE AREAS...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT                   
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST                 
SHORE AREAS. WITH A LONG NORTH FETCH FOR THE PAST 24-36 HOURS THIS              
WILL KEEP 5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE EARLY                         
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TODAY ALLOW WAVES TO SLOWLY              
SUBSIDE. FOR THIS REASON...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN                    
EFFECT THIS MORNING.                                                            
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ740-              
     LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06 UTC AVIATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A                
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN                
ISOLATED AND NOT WORTHY OF TAF MENTION. THIS MOISTURE WILL BRING                
SOME CONCERN FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES BUT BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS NEAR              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH OF KEEP THEM AT VFR LEVELS.                   
CONVECTIVE THREAT NOT ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT                  
WELL TO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS POINT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                        
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
65                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
334 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD                  
THROUGH THE MO OZARK FOOTHILLS REGION NEAR AN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE           
BOUNDARY. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS PATTERN DISAPPEARING BY 12Z OR               
SO...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE NOSE OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHCS OF PCPN BY AFTN EVEN NEAR              
THE AR/TN BORDER.                                                               
THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THU AFTN...THEN THE                 
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A MORE WRLY                
COMPONENT AS AN ERN GREAT LAKES LOW DEPARTS INTO CANADA. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF THE SWRN CONUS MID LEVEL                  
RIDGE AND THE REINTRODUCTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SW ON THU               
NIGHT/FRI. SCT SHWS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE VICINITY OF               
THE WARM FRONT. FRI NIGHT PCPN CHCS WILL DECREASE SOME...                       
ESPECIALLY IN SERN MO AS SHRTWV ENERGY EVENTUALLY TURNS LOW LEVEL               
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH...TENDING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC                    
COLUMN. THIS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO                          
CONTINUE...WITH AN ON AND OFF PCPN PATTERN LASTING AT LEAST                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE                  
NWLY MID LEVEL PATTERN. ALL IN ALL...POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. FURTHER            
INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER NWRLY                  
FLOW APPEARS TO WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE                     
MODERATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TODAY. SOME MID              
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE SITES EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF CU               
FORMATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE DURING THE DAY...NEARLY CALM AT               
NIGHT. SOME BRIEF VSBYS 3-5SM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC....DB                                                                    
AVIATION...CN                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
410 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
CURRENTLY ONGOING MCS LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH MORE                  
ACCAS TYPE TSRA DEVELOPING IN LLJ REGION OF WRN SD...WITH IR TOPS               
INDICATING SOME COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SWRN SD. RUC HAS THIS               
PCPN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...WITH PCPN ADVECTION MOVING EAST/JUST                 
NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED               
SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NW                
CWA TO HANDLE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY ON GOING/EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP.                                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR               
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS AGREE ON 7H TROF/WAVE COMBO TO IMPACT                
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY SLOW MOVT EXPECTED WITH 7H                 
TROF. BY 00Z THURSDAY...BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SHOW QUITE A BIT OF 85H-              
7H FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE MO RIVER REGION...ALONG                
WITH SPEC HUMIDITIES AOA 10G/KG. 7H TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH               
TO KEEP ATMOS CAPPED THROUGH 21/22Z BEFORE ALLOWING RAPID                       
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINITY IN THIS IS THE SKY                
COVER. CURRENT MCS SHIELD OVERSPREADING CWA...AND THIS MAY BE                   
ENOUGH TO HELP INHIBIT SOME DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE WRN PART                
OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH LATER THIS AFTN FOR RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE. ALSO...NOTICED THAT LOW LEVEL                    
TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC                          
TROF...WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW MORE LOLEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM                  
NORTHWARD. NOTICED THAT DWPTS ACROSS SC NEB AT 08Z WERE IN THE                  
LOWER 70S. GFS HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY 00Z TONIGHT.                   
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A LARGE RESIDENCE               
TIME...SO NO PLANS ON ANY HEAVY RAIN HEADLINES ATTM...BUT LOCALLY               
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL COVER IN THE HWO.                  
WITH WRN PART OF THE CWA ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WILL COVER PSBL               
SEVERE IN THE HWO.                                                              
7H TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO MECHANISM WILL RESET A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY...ALTHO HIGHER AXIS OF PWATS DO SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH                 
AND EAST. CONCERN IS THAT BOTH NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT SFC LOW MOVING                 
SLOWLY THROUGH DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEAVES ERN CWA              
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN               
POST FROPA INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NEXT 7H WAVE IMPACTING SLOW                    
MOVING FEATURE. HAVE ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY                 
AFTN...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED DURING LATER SHIFTS TO               
SEE IF THURSDAY AFTN INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP.                           
TEMP WISE...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS TEMPS                 
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES                 
PLACE COUPLED WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF               
OF FORECAST ZONES...SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND                    
MONDAY NIGHT...PER THE LATEST 12Z/00Z GFS/EC OPERATIONAL                        
SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT                     
THROUGH APPX 96 HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE ON                          
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/RIDGE AXES OVER THE LOWER              
48. BOTH MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE TROFPAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN              
SOMEWHERE IN THAT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. NO NOTABLE                     
CHANGES MADE TO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF                
THE EXTENDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS FOR KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG                                        
VFR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISBYS PREVAIL              
THROUGH TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL                   
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE              
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS                  
THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY...THE MAIN               
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS SHIFTING EAST TO IMPACT THE KABR AND KATY                 
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RATHER EFFICIENT AT                 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SO ANTICIPATE IFR CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS                   
UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...FROM 00Z TO 06Z                  
TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL               
BACK-PEDDLE TO THE WEST...AGAIN WITH THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS                
MAINTAINING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLE                  
THROUGH TERMINAL AIRSPACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE EVENING               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING              
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WILL WHITTLE DOWN TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS             
AS THUNDERSTORM EVENT TIMES GROW CLOSER...STARTING OUT THIS                     
MORNING MAINLY WITH CB MENTION AND/OR VCTS AS WARRANTED...UPDATING              
WITH TSRA MENTION IN THE NEARER TERM AS APPROPRIATE. SURFACE WINDS              
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND BREEZY FOR                  
MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
728 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY DEPARTING              
UPR TROF OVER SE ONTARIO DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG EXTENDING FM            
THE PLAINS INTO SCNTRL CAN. AT THE SFC/H85...SPRAWLING HI PRES                  
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE TROF IS IN ERN UPR MI WITH LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLD. TO THE W              
AND NW...00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY/STABLE WITH PWAT JUST A BIT            
OVER 0.50 INCH/WELL DEFINED CAP ARND H7 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. AFTN                
DIURNAL CU IN THESE AREAS YDAY GAVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES DURING THE               
EVNG.                                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO THU REVOLVE ARND TEMPS WITH ONTARIO HI PRES/            
DRY AIRMASS FCST TO DOMINATE. FOCUS FOR THU NGT THRU FRI NGT SHIFTS             
TO TIMING/IMPACT OF TROF NOW IN THE PAC NW TO THE W OF UPR RDG IN               
THE PLAINS.                                                                     
FOR TDAY/TNGT...DRY HI PRES FCST TO BLD OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AND TO             
NR MNM BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SCT DIURNAL CU OVER THE                 
INTERIOR CWA THIS AFTN AWAY FM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE GRT             
LKS...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES OTRW. THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER             
THE FAR ERN CWA TNGT...WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND NRLY STNRY            
CLOSED LO THE E MAY BRING SOME CLD IN TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SUGS A WIDE             
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMP BTWN THIS AFTN/TNGT. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST              
ARND 12C BY 00Z THU...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO APRCH 80 AWAY FM LK COOLING            
MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY S OF ESC            
WITH NLY H925 FLOW MINIMIZING LK MI INFLUENCE AT AREAS E OF ESC.                
MIXING TO H75-8 TDAY WOULD SUG SFC DWPTS WL FALL INTO THE MID 40S               
PER 00Z INL RAOB/GFS FCST SDNGS...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AOB 30            
PCT OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH DVLPG RETURN SSW FLOW LATE TNGT MAY             
TEND TO BRAKE FALL OF TEMP OVER THE FAR W AT IWD- ONTONAGON...WL GO             
BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO THE E WITH PROMISE OF             
LGT WINDS/CLR SKIES.                                                            
STUBBORN UPR LO IN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE ON               
THU...BUT LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER UNDER RDG AXIS            
JUST TO THE NW THAT WL BE WEAKENING AS PAC NW TROF PRESSES INTO                 
SCNTRL CAN. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE OF RDGING/ACYC FLOW            
UPSTREAM OF STUBBORN BLOCK TO THE E...AND INTERCEPTION OF RETURNING             
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO WARM FNT WELL TO THE S WOULD SUG DRY...CAPPED             
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING               
PCPN OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN. BUT WL RETAIN GOING LO CHC POPS              
TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS FCST AND RATHER HI ETA MOS POP AS WELL FOR IWD.              
DESPITE SOME INCRS IN CLD COVER...TEMPS WL BE AOA EXPECTED MAX TEMPS            
FOR TDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND RETURN SW FLOW               
MINIMIZING LK SUP COOLING. THE EXCEPTION WL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF THE            
LK MI SHORE.                                                                    
AS INCOMING UPR TROF ACRS SRN CAN BREAKS DOWN RDG A BIT MORE THU                
NGT...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO ARPCH WRN LK SUP BY 12Z             
FRI...GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED                   
COMPROMISE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING...WHICH SHOW THE BNDRY                
REACHING THE MN/LK SUP AT 12Z FRI. SINCE SHARP WARM FNT REMAINS WELL            
TO THE SW...MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED...AND MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER               
MODEST. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z UKMET WITH              
HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING                  
TROF...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI. WL THUS CARRY A 30 POP OVER THE              
NW BUT KEEP THE ERN ZNS DRY SO FAR E OF THE INCOMING BNDRY AT                   
DIURNAL MIN HTG TIME. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW SSI ARND +4C AT ERY THRU THE             
NGT...AND NAM FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE MID LVLS.                         
BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FNT REACHING THE SCNTRL AND E             
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI. PCPN CHCS ON FRI WL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LLVL             
CNVGC ALG THE FNT...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID            
LVL AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CLD COVER WOULD SUG A GOOD DEAL            
OF INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. PLACEMENT OF FA IN LEFT EXIT OF JET              
MAX SUPPORTING INCOMING TROF SHOWN MOST BY 12Z ECMWF ALG WITH SOME              
FAIRLY SHARP DVPA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD ADD LARGER SCALE                 
LIFT. BUT THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHY AWAY FM THIS STRONGER JET                       
SCENARIO... SO OPTED TO REDUCE POPS A BIT TO NO MORE THAN 30 EXCEPT             
OVER THE FAR SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF FNT WL BE MOST IN              
SYNC WITH DIURNAL HTG CYCLE AND SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC. GOING 40 POP              
SEEMS APPROPRIATE THERE. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE               
FOR MAX TEMPS EXCEPT OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP/NEAR LK MI WITH              
DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW/EXPECTED DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE. INCRSG                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LO/MID TROP (0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST TO               
INCRS TO 40 KTS) AND PRESENCE OF DRY MID LVL AIR WOULD SUG A RISK               
FOR SOME SVR STORMS. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR MNM FOR SFC T/TD                
83/60 AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF             
STRONGER JET DYNAMICS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY 00Z GFS YIELDS SB CAPE            
ARND 930 J/KG. BUT LAPSE RATES...EVEN WITH A DEGREE OR SO OF MID LVL            
COOLING...DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP. SINCE SPC DOES NOT HAVE             
UPR GRT LKS OUTLOOKED FOR MENTION OF SVR STORMS...WL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW.                                                                
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG FRI NGT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL DRYING IN            
WAKE OF COLD FROPA...TENDED TO END POPS FASTER W-E THAN PREVIOUS                
FCST. BUT MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS OVER LK SUP THRU THE NGT AND INTO              
SAT CLOSER TO DIGGING SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS               
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON                     
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WEST. AS THIS               
TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS              
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER                
THAN 20 KNOTS THIS WEEK END. WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1007 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED SKY COVER MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. REST OF THE                      
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WILL FIGHT                     
AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CWA TODAY. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS                
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE DAKOTAS...AND LIGHTNING                   
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING...INDICATING THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING.                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME OF THE CIRRUS IS INVADING                
THE WESTERN CWA. LATEST NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CLOUD                   
COVER WILL MAKE SOME EASTERN PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON FROM                    
WESTERN MN...BUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP AS IT HITS               
THE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDES              
EAST. FORECAST ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE                     
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR LATE                 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH AXIS                        
STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN DLH FA. QUIET DAY ON TAP FOR THE                      
NORTHLAND...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER RIDGE NUDGES                   
OVERHEAD. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WAA TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS                
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW                
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TODAY...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS MOVING                   
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. HIGH                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR EXPECTED LAKE                
BREEZE...KEEPING COOLER TEMPS LAKESIDE.                                         
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM               
THE WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT            
LOOKS LIKE SCT CONV SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT             
AS 30KT LLJ VEERS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY                 
SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT                 
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE MAINTAINED LOW                   
CHANCE POPS ATTM. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WILL SEE ANOTHER                  
SHORT WAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE                    
NORTHWESTERLY...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA.                 
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD               
RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AS WELL.                 
FOR THIS WEEKEND...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND            
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHLAND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.                     
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
AVIATION...AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS               
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TODAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS                      
PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS MAY                        
DEVELOP...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH            
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A RETURN FLOW AND MODEST WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION                 
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER 6Z THURSDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  74  54  72  56 /   0  20  30  20                                           
INL  80  56  79  58 /  10  30  30  20                                           
BRD  81  61  80  62 /  10  30  30  20                                           
HYR  80  48  79  61 /   0  10  30  20                                           
ASX  77  49  74  59 /   0  10  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
KD/DAP                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MID SUMMER WILL MOVE                       
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...DRAGGING A SLOW                   
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE               
RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2                 
INCHES OR MORE TO PARTS OF EASTERN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND               
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY. ANOTHER               
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CONVEYOR BELT OF RAIN CONTINUES TO FEED UP OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN               
HALF OF MY FCST AREA...WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION TO THE               
BACK EDGE. FURTHER WEST UNDER THE RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC UPPER                
FLOW...INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH A BROKEN               
LINE OF STORMS FROM WARREN COUNTY SOUTHWARD.                                    
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE IDEA THAT                 
THE FURTHER ONE GOES IN THE STATE THE HIGHER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY               
RAIN WILL BE. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST PRECIP WATER/LOW LEVEL JET                 
ANOMALIES FOCUS ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX                
CONVERGENCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG DRYING DIVING INTO THE SRN                
OHIO VALLEY...TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING UPPER                    
TROUGH. THE RESULTANT UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS FCST TO SHARPEN              
AND PIVOT AS IT SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...SUPPORTING THE              
IDEA OF A FRONTOGENTIC REGION...AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE               
RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ANALYZING               
THE SORT OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS IMPLIED BY THE BANDED RADAR           
RETURNS AND WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGLY ANTICYCLONICALLY               
CURVED UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. I IMAGINE EMBEDDED CONVECTION                 
MAY BE TAKING ITS TOLL. REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A MORE WINTER-              
LIKE LOOK AND FEEL TO IT THAN A SYSTEM NORMALLY SEEN AT THE HEIGHT              
OF SUMMER.                                                                      
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH SO NO FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED AT                
THIS TIME...BUT SMALLER SCALE NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED                 
OUT IN SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS THAT MANAGE TO TRAIN ALONG               
FOR ANY AMOUNT OF TIME. WILL HANDLE THOSE WITH ADVISORIES AND                   
STATEMENTS...FOR NOW. IF THINGS DO LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL            
TO DETERIORATE...WOULD THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR A FLOOD                
WATCH WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT WILLIAMSPORT TO YORK.                  
ALL OF CENTRAL PENN IS ONCE AGAIN IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK                          
AREA...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS MEAGER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE                        
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. RUC SHOWS HIGHEST CAPES OVER SERN              
AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70...AND ANOTHER MAX OF CAPE OVER                
THE FAR WEST WHERE SUNSHINE WAS MOST ABUNDANT EARLIER TODAY. WINDS              
ALOFT ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE SOME                  
RELATIVELY POTENT CORES DEVELOP IN ORDER TO MANAGE ANY KIND OF                  
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT IS LOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
03Z SREF PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY THRU CENTRAL/EASTERN PA                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF SWINGS                 
THRU...TAKING ON A NEG TILT BY LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. STRONG                  
LARGE SCALE FORCING...FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET AND                       
ANOMALOUS PWATS ALONG FRONT ALL POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF                   
LOCALLY HVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO TONIGHT.                 
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY (ALL NIGHT)...AND IN MOST               
OTHER AREAS AREAS EARLY...WILL BE TRIMMED CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO -2 TO -3 STD DEVIATIONS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE              
SLOWLY FILLING AS IT DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN THURSDAY. 700 HPA                   
TEMPS COOLING STEADILY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WRN HALF               
OF THE STATE BY 00Z FRIDAY WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE                    
RATES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 7C/KM...ABUNDANT CLOUDS OR "SELF                   
DESTRUCT" SUNSHINE...AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY                
NIGHT...WITH A PARTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FRIDAY IN STORE.                  
COLD FRONT FALLS APART JUST TO THE SE OF C PA...THEN WARM                       
AND HUMID AIR MOVES BACK TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONT MOVES               
ACROSS SATURDAY...BUT WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                         
THUS WENT MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THU AND FRI...THEN CHC FOR SAT...                 
THEN S CHC ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUE.                    
GFS BLOWS UP A SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY...BUT                     
THIS NOT CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS AND RUNS...SO THINK                       
IS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. ONGOING                  
CONVECTION MOVING NE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MSOT TAF SITES FOR                 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE                 
THIS MORNING. THEN CONVECTION WINDS UP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
INTO THE EVENING...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE                 
EASTERN HALF. THEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN               
EVENT IN THE CENTRAL/EAST THIS EVENING.                                         
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CAUSING THE AFORMENTIONED WEATHER WILL                 
BE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL BECOME                        
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVERHEAD TODAY AS A SERIES OF IMPRESSIVE WAVES                
WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS SLIDE THROUGH IT. CONVECTION IN THE                      
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLIEST LATER ON TODAY. FURTHER EAST              
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AND                  
CEILING EXPECTED.                                                               
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING               
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO                      
DEVELOP...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO                  
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SUNDAY... BUT YET ANOTHER              
FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE/LAMBERT                                                      
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/LAMBERT                                                     
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT                                                    
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR                                                          
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY                                                         
AREA OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE JAMES RIVER                
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE                     
SITUATION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER KEEPING INSTABILITY AT               
BAY TODAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF LLJ TODAY SHOULD               
PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS                       
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SD                
WITH IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING. CLEARING LINE                    
APPROACHING WESTERN MOST COUNTIES AND STILL EXPECT SOME                         
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS                  
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND WYOMING IMPULSE NEARS THE AREA. ALSO                  
INCREASED WINDS TODAY INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY. DID SOME TWEAKS TO              
ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
CURRENTLY ONGOING MCS LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH MORE                  
ACCAS TYPE TSRA DEVELOPING IN LLJ REGION OF WRN SD...WITH IR TOPS               
INDICATING SOME COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SWRN SD. RUC HAS THIS               
PCPN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...WITH PCPN ADVECTION MOVING EAST/JUST                 
NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED               
SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NW                
CWA TO HANDLE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY ON GOING/EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP.                                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR               
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS AGREE ON 7H TROF/WAVE COMBO TO IMPACT                
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY SLOW MOVT EXPECTED WITH 7H                 
TROF. BY 00Z THURSDAY...BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SHOW QUITE A BIT OF 85H-              
7H FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE MO RIVER REGION...ALONG                
WITH SPEC HUMIDITIES AOA 10G/KG. 7H TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH               
TO KEEP ATMOS CAPPED THROUGH 21/22Z BEFORE ALLOWING RAPID                       
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINITY IN THIS IS THE SKY                
COVER. CURRENT MCS SHIELD OVERSPREADING CWA...AND THIS MAY BE                   
ENOUGH TO HELP INHIBIT SOME DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE WRN PART                
OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH LATER THIS AFTN FOR RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE. ALSO...NOTICED THAT LOW LEVEL                    
TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC                          
TROF...WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW MORE LOLEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM                  
NORTHWARD. NOTICED THAT DWPTS ACROSS SC NEB AT 08Z WERE IN THE                  
LOWER 70S. GFS HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY 00Z TONIGHT.                   
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICENT TO PREVENT A LARGE RESIDENCE                
TIME...SO NO PLANS ON ANY HEAVY RAIN HEADLINES ATTM...BUT LOCALLY               
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL COVER IN THE HWO.                  
WITH WRN PART OF THE CWA ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WILL COVER PSBL               
SEVERE IN THE HWO.                                                              
7H TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO MECHANISM WILL RESET A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY...ALTHO HIGHER AXIS OF PWATS DO SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH                 
AND EAST. CONCERN IS THAT BOTH NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT SFC LOW MOVING                 
SLOWLY THROUGH DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEAVES ERN CWA              
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN               
POST FROPA INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NEXT 7H WAVE IMPACTING SLOW                    
MOVING FEATURE. HAVE ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY                 
AFTN...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED DURING LATER SHIFTS TO               
SEE IF THURSDAY AFTN INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP.                           
TEMP WISE...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS TEMPS                 
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES                 
PLACE COUPLED WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF               
OF FORECAST ZONES...SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND                    
MONDAY NIGHT...PER THE LATEST 12Z/00Z GFS/EC OPERATIONAL                        
SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT                     
THROUGH APPX 96 HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE ON                          
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/RIDGE AXES OVER THE LOWER              
48. BOTH MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE TROFPAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN              
SOMEWHERE IN THAT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. NO NOTABLE                     
CHANGES MADE TO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF                
THE EXTENDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH                     
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                 
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLD CB...BUT MORE                
GENERALLY 8-10KFT BASED SHRA ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FROM KMBG             
TO KBIS THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS...BUT EXPECT THIS WILL LIFT               
OUT AS CLEARING LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CB               
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MID TO                
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS                     
EVENING MOVING IN A LINE FROM KPIR/KMBG...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A                 
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THIS LINE MOVES TOWARD THE ATY/KABR                     
TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN               
PRODUCER WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES                    
THROUGH KABR/KATY AND POINTS EAST. AS ALWAYS DURING THE SUMMER                  
CONVECTIVE SEASON...AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY COULD                   
EXPERIENCE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO SEE A SECOND                 
FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF              
MOISTURE AROUND...MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF                     
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...CONNELLY                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1140 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REVISED FORECAST TO ELIMINATE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT               
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF              
A GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY LINE. THIS AREA HAS YET               
TO EXPERIENCE THE INFILTRATION OF LOW 60S DEW POINT AIR THAT HAS                
MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                 
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE               
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT                 
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT ROUTINE                
FORECAST ISSUANCE. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS                 
DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF FEW-SCT CU IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY...                 
WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS                
10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD                  
THROUGH THE MO OZARK FOOTHILLS REGION NEAR AN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE           
BOUNDARY. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS PATTERN DISAPPEARING BY 12Z OR               
SO...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE NOSE OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHCS OF PCPN BY AFTN EVEN NEAR              
THE AR/TN BORDER.                                                               
THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THU AFTN...THEN THE                 
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A MORE WRLY                
COMPONENT AS AN ERN GREAT LAKES LOW DEPARTS INTO CANADA. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF THE SWRN CONUS MID LEVEL                  
RIDGE AND THE REINTRODUCTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SW ON THU               
NIGHT/FRI. SCT SHWS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE VICINITY OF               
THE WARM FRONT. FRI NIGHT PCPN CHCS WILL DECREASE SOME...                       
ESPECIALLY IN SERN MO AS SHRTWV ENERGY EVENTUALLY TURNS LOW LEVEL               
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH...TENDING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC                    
COLUMN. THIS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO                          
CONTINUE...WITH AN ON AND OFF PCPN PATTERN LASTING AT LEAST                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE                  
NWLY MID LEVEL PATTERN. ALL IN ALL...POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. FURTHER            
INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER NWRLY                  
FLOW APPEARS TO WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE                     
MODERATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RJP/DB                                                                          
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
355 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE               
EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION               
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE             
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                  
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER              
LEVEL SYSTEM IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALL                   
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A TREND TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF               
THIS SYSTEM LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO FAST                
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO               
STRATEGY WILL BE TO FOLLOW THIS TREND AND DELAY INCREASE IN POPS AND            
QPF. NOT PARTICULARLY SATISFIED WITH ANY COMBINATION OF MODEL POPS              
SO HAVE GENERATED THIS GRID MANUALLY. FOR QPF HAVE USED GFS FOR                 
TODAY INTO TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO HPC. WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR                           
TEMPERATURE...WIND AND DEW POINTS HAVE USED GMOS. HAVE NOT MADE                 
ANY CHANGES TO SKY COVER WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                          
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT             
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW               
LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE                
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. ALONG              
WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT                    
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF                   
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ENHANCED LIFT AND UPSLOPING OF MOISTURE INTO                
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN                 
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT              
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS                
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST                
PRECIPITATION. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF              
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THURSDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO                   
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS                
COULD LINGER ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED               
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL                 
LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN                        
YESTERDAYS FORECAST GUIDANCE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                    
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPUTER MODELS              
DIFFER SOMEWHAT BEYOND MONDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN MEMBERS FROM THE GFS               
INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST THAT ITS                         
OPERATIONAL COUNTERPART. HPC NOTED A COMMON OPERATIONAL BIAS                    
CONCERNING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. HAVE INITIALIZED THE EXTENDED                 
FORECAST WITH GMOS. HOWEVER...ON DAYS 6 AND 7 DECIDED TO GO WITH                
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE AFFECT OF THIS WAS TO RAISE POPS BACK                
ABOVE CLIMO FOR NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS A                    
MODERATE DEGREE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS TO PERSIST TONIGHT            
AND THURSDAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB AFTER 06Z.                     
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...WITH A                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION                 
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS                 
WILL THEN IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL                  
BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.                   
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN LATER SATURDAY                
NIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH THE RUC13 OUT TO                
03Z THEN TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR                 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND                 
SPEED BIAS...ESPECIALLY AS AIR TEMPERATURES INCREASE RELATIVE TO                
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. SO WILL LOWER SPEEDS 1 TO               
2 KNOTS. FOR WAVES: A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO                
DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO THIS                       
SOUTHERLY FETCH A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL              
WILL CONTINUE. HAVE INITIALIZED WAVE GRIDS WITH WNA WAVES TONIGHT               
AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE NAM VERSION OF SWAN.                  
EXPECT HIGH BIAS FOR WAVE MODEL WINDS IN LOCAL WATERS                           
THURSDAY...SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TO COMPENSATE. DEW POINTS                 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT SO WILL TRANSITION FROM AREAS TO WIDE              
SPREAD FOG AFTER 06Z.                                                           
SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD BE AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IN MOSTLY A SOUTH SWELL. WINDS ARE               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY                   
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN              
AND FOG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS                
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO                      
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...LERICOS                                                             
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS                                                       
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
145 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY DEPARTING              
UPR TROF OVER SE ONTARIO DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG EXTENDING FM            
THE PLAINS INTO SCNTRL CAN. AT THE SFC/H85...SPRAWLING HI PRES                  
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE TROF IS IN ERN UPR MI WITH LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLD. TO THE W              
AND NW...00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY/STABLE WITH PWAT JUST A BIT            
OVER 0.50 INCH/WELL DEFINED CAP ARND H7 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. AFTN                
DIURNAL CU IN THESE AREAS YDAY GAVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES DURING THE               
EVNG.                                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO THU REVOLVE ARND TEMPS WITH ONTARIO HI PRES/            
DRY AIRMASS FCST TO DOMINATE. FOCUS FOR THU NGT THRU FRI NGT SHIFTS             
TO TIMING/IMPACT OF TROF NOW IN THE PAC NW TO THE W OF UPR RDG IN               
THE PLAINS.                                                                     
FOR TDAY/TNGT...DRY HI PRES FCST TO BLD OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AND TO             
NR MNM BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SCT DIURNAL CU OVER THE                 
INTERIOR CWA THIS AFTN AWAY FM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE GRT             
LKS...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES OTRW. THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER             
THE FAR ERN CWA TNGT...WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND NRLY STNRY            
CLOSED LO THE E MAY BRING SOME CLD IN TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SUGS A WIDE             
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMP BTWN THIS AFTN/TNGT. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST              
ARND 12C BY 00Z THU...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO APRCH 80 AWAY FM LK COOLING            
MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY S OF ESC            
WITH NLY H925 FLOW MINIMIZING LK MI INFLUENCE AT AREAS E OF ESC.                
MIXING TO H75-8 TDAY WOULD SUG SFC DWPTS WL FALL INTO THE MID 40S               
PER 00Z INL RAOB/GFS FCST SDNGS...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AOB 30            
PCT OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH DVLPG RETURN SSW FLOW LATE TNGT MAY             
TEND TO BRAKE FALL OF TEMP OVER THE FAR W AT IWD- ONTONAGON...WL GO             
BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO THE E WITH PROMISE OF             
LGT WINDS/CLR SKIES.                                                            
STUBBORN UPR LO IN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE ON               
THU...BUT LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER UNDER RDG AXIS            
JUST TO THE NW THAT WL BE WEAKENING AS PAC NW TROF PRESSES INTO                 
SCNTRL CAN. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE OF RDGING/ACYC FLOW            
UPSTREAM OF STUBBORN BLOCK TO THE E...AND INTERCEPTION OF RETURNING             
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO WARM FNT WELL TO THE S WOULD SUG DRY...CAPPED             
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING               
PCPN OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN. BUT WL RETAIN GOING LO CHC POPS              
TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS FCST AND RATHER HI ETA MOS POP AS WELL FOR IWD.              
DESPITE SOME INCRS IN CLD COVER...TEMPS WL BE AOA EXPECTED MAX TEMPS            
FOR TDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND RETURN SW FLOW               
MINIMIZING LK SUP COOLING. THE EXCEPTION WL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF THE            
LK MI SHORE.                                                                    
AS INCOMING UPR TROF ACRS SRN CAN BREAKS DOWN RDG A BIT MORE THU                
NGT...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO ARPCH WRN LK SUP BY 12Z             
FRI...GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED                   
COMPROMISE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING...WHICH SHOW THE BNDRY                
REACHING THE MN/LK SUP AT 12Z FRI. SINCE SHARP WARM FNT REMAINS WELL            
TO THE SW...MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED...AND MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER               
MODEST. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z UKMET WITH              
HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING                  
TROF...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI. WL THUS CARRY A 30 POP OVER THE              
NW BUT KEEP THE ERN ZNS DRY SO FAR E OF THE INCOMING BNDRY AT                   
DIURNAL MIN HTG TIME. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW SSI ARND +4C AT ERY THRU THE             
NGT...AND NAM FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE MID LVLS.                         
BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FNT REACHING THE SCNTRL AND E             
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI. PCPN CHCS ON FRI WL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LLVL             
CNVGC ALG THE FNT...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID            
LVL AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CLD COVER WOULD SUG A GOOD DEAL            
OF INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. PLACEMENT OF FA IN LEFT EXIT OF JET              
MAX SUPPORTING INCOMING TROF SHOWN MOST BY 12Z ECMWF ALG WITH SOME              
FAIRLY SHARP DVPA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD ADD LARGER SCALE                 
LIFT. BUT THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHY AWAY FM THIS STRONGER JET                       
SCENARIO... SO OPTED TO REDUCE POPS A BIT TO NO MORE THAN 30 EXCEPT             
OVER THE FAR SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF FNT WL BE MOST IN              
SYNC WITH DIURNAL HTG CYCLE AND SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC. GOING 40 POP              
SEEMS APPROPRIATE THERE. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE               
FOR MAX TEMPS EXCEPT OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP/NEAR LK MI WITH              
DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW/EXPECTED DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE. INCRSG                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LO/MID TROP (0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST TO               
INCRS TO 40 KTS) AND PRESENCE OF DRY MID LVL AIR WOULD SUG A RISK               
FOR SOME SVR STORMS. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR MNM FOR SFC T/TD                
83/60 AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF             
STRONGER JET DYNAMICS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY 00Z GFS YIELDS SB CAPE            
ARND 930 J/KG. BUT LAPSE RATES...EVEN WITH A DEGREE OR SO OF MID LVL            
COOLING...DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP. SINCE SPC DOES NOT HAVE             
UPR GRT LKS OUTLOOKED FOR MENTION OF SVR STORMS...WL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW.                                                                
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG FRI NGT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL DRYING IN            
WAKE OF COLD FROPA...TENDED TO END POPS FASTER W-E THAN PREVIOUS                
FCST. BUT MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS OVER LK SUP THRU THE NGT AND INTO              
SAT CLOSER TO DIGGING SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...AND MOVE TO THE OHIO             
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD WITH TRADITIONAL DIURNAL WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SHOULD BE WITH               
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHORTLY AFTER...ASSOCIATED WITH AN                
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE TOO SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH            
18Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS               
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON                     
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WEST. AS THIS               
TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS              
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER                
THAN 20 KNOTS THIS WEEK END. WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...KF/MRC                                                               
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
310 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.                                   
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                
OVER WI/UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED               
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH EASTERN CO. FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS                    
MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/OCNL THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS      
HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE            
MID AND UPPER 70 AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE              
LOCAL FORECAST AREA FAIRLY ATYPICAL FOR LATTER JULY.                            
23.12Z GFS/NAM SHORT TERM MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO               
GLARING DIFFERENCES NOTED.                                                      
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUDGES              
INTO WESTERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB BY 12Z. EASTERN PERIPHERY OF                
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EDGE INTO                 
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THICKENING               
CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG               
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MUCAPE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE               
...SO CARRIED SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR AREAS WEST OF THE               
MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                     
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MN/EASTERN              
NEB THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
TRANSPORT STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 ACROSS IA THROUGH THE DAY.            
THIS WILL FUEL A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN                        
IA/NORTHWEST IL BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS             
STRONGER TRANSPORT SIGNAL EDGING INTO SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA                 
COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...CARRIED LIKELY SHRA/T CHANCES                  
ACROSS THAT AREA IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. MODELS STILL SHOWING A               
SECONDARY LIGHTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE            
AREA FOR A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHRA/T. AGAIN...MUCAPE IS NOT THAT                 
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT MAINLY SHRA WITH PERHAPS A RUMPLE OR TWO           
OF THUNDER. WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA               
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TOPPING OFF IN             
THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S.                                                       
WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE             
SHRA/ISOLD T CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.                            
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO A COLD FRONT            
AND PUSH IT INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT                  
PARTICULARLY STRONG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT BUILDING CAPE INTO THE             
1000-2000J/KG RANGE WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD              
BE AMPLE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. BUMPED POPS INTO TE 30-40              
PERCENT RANGE BASED ON THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE              
FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING            
HOURS FRIDAY  WITH LINGERING SHRA/TS CHANCES...THEN EXIT THE AREA               
AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                                
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA            
ON SATURDAY FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS.                                            
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
23.00Z/06Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING                
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE            
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY           
WITH PERHAPS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RESULTANT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY                    
TOUCHING FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE OF            
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES KEEP EVERYTHING SOUTH...SO HAVE OPTED TO            
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL BUMP UP CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT AS            
ALMOST CERTAIN THAT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST                 
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THEN FOR MONDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...THE GEM/DGEX/GFS ENSEMBLES AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC                     
GFS/ECMWF WANT TO BLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THE                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER                   
SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. WILL GO WITH A DRY                    
FORECAST FOR NOW. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES IN CHECK                
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-13C RANGE ON             
SUNDAY...WARMING TO AROUND 16-17C BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT             
COOLER. BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW               
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                                    
12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER            
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND BRINGING THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY                         
MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY STARTS TO             
TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST            
IOWA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING            
TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THIS               
WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANY RAIN TO THE TAF SITES.              
PREVIOUS TAFS INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KRST AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND            
BUT PUSHED THE TIMING BACK A LITTLE FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE NAM               
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE RUNS OF SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING              
KLSE AS WELL. THE 23.09Z SREFS DO BRING IN PROBABILITIES OF 30-40               
FOR KLSE AND BOTH THE 23.00Z ARW WRF AND 23.09Z RUC WRF SUGGEST THE             
RAIN WILL REACH KLSE SO HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH THERE AS WELL. NO                
CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY SO NO MENTION OF            
THUNDER OR INCLUSION OF CB. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5K FEET             
FOR THE MOST PART. THE 23.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST KRST MAY             
GO DOWN TO 3K FEET OR LOWER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OBSERVATIONS                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID INDICATE MVFR                  
CEILINGS SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY.                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DAS                                                           
AVIATION..........04                                                            
</pre> wi