AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
205 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST FOR              
THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND MILD AUTUMN WEATHER.            
RUC MODEL ANALYZED AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER SRN ID TODAY              
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN CO LATER TONIGHT AND TUE IN            
NWLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...SO             
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH IT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO FIGHT THROUGH THE              
RIDGE TOWARDS MIDWEEK. THE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS WY ON WED...BUT THE             
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS             
NE UT AND NW CO WED AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO               
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO              
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR TUE...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE N            
AND MTNS ON WED. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN                  
MODERATE TO STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AT NIGHT.                                  
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A                  
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE               
WILL REBOUND BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS WY ON WED/WED               
NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 10 TO           
15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...           
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE                
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BETWEEN RUNS/MODELS             
SHOW DIFFERENCES ON JUST HOW THIS WILL HAPPEN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES            
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...WITH TEMPS DROPPING OFF A FEW DEGREES AND             
CLOUDS INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST DOES INCLUDE SOME               
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. BUT THIS                
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
DOMINATES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...                                         
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.....JAD                                                              
LONG TERM......EH                                                               
AVIATION.......JAD                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
923 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE 13 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE               
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY                  
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...HIGH                         
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS                    
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR JANUARY. WITH THE SURFACE                
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE                    
FORECASTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER INLAND                
SITES...WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA                 
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FORECAST                   
WINDS INDICATE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER                  
INTO THE EVENING...SO WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 03 UTC.                    
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY...WE EXPECT THE FREQUENCY OF               
WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST               
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS DURING               
THE AFTERNOON WITH BE AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT. THESE                
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE                
AXIS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE           
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE           
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE           
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...                     
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE            
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                       
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY              
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM                      
     KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL                
     WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20                 
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT                
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT                  
     20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM                 
     20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20                
     TO 60 NM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GIBBS                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY                   
MORNING...                                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR/RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ANOMALOUSLY               
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND               
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE PVA/LIFT OVER THE                       
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND, RESULTING IN INCLEMENT WEATHER                
CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AIR IS OVERTAKING THE GULF COAST AND SRN                   
ATLANTIC STATES. REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECT THIS WITH PRECIP WATER                  
VALUES AROUND 0.25 INCH. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN A STRONG CANADIAN              
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEEP LOW CENTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC                 
COAST IS FUNNELING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON NWLY LOW LEVEL            
WINDS. OVER THE MARINE AREA, SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS              
PREVAIL, WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY. SKIES ARE CLEAR                    
REGIONWIDE, WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. THE WINDS SHOULD                
KEEP THE MERCURY FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK, WITH LOWS BY                  
DAYBREAK FROM THE MID 30S COOLEST LOCALES TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE                
COAST. BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...                                   
TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962                                    
APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997                                    
HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO              
THE NW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY. THE               
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY            
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON AND WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO                 
REACH 60 DEGREES. IN FACT, THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TALLAHASSEE              
TODAY IS 53 DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT BRISK WITH NWLY WINDS                
10-15 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOWER MS              
VALLEY, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN FL BY WEDNESDAY              
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING DUE            
TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY                     
PREDICTING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 34 INLAND AND 35 TO 41               
ALONG THE COAST. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS A T/TD SPREAD AROUND 5 DEG F AT             
09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH LESS THAN 2 KNOTS OF WIND. WITH THIS IN              
MIND, IF WINDS DO BECOME CALM, TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN              
INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING              
IN THE FORECAST, WILL LEAVE THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL                  
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA IN EFFECT, AND LEAVE THE WARNING DECISION TO THE            
NEXT SHIFT. URBAN AREAS, LIKE DOTHAN, ALBANY, VALDOSTA AND                      
TALLAHASSEE WILL NOT REACH FREEZING. LOCAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE                 
INDICATES THAT DOWNTOWN TALLAHASSEE MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 40                    
DEGREES, WHILE AREAS INSIDE THE CITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.            
RURAL AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 HOURS OF             
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SURFACE                   
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE            
CWA.                                                                            
HERE ARE SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL STATISTICS REGARDING FREEZES AND RECORD            
LOW TEMPS...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987                                    
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001                                    
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987                                    
ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993                    
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989                                    
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989                                    
AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE                     PERIOD OF RECORD                  
TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH    1948 TO PRESENT                  
TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH     1885 TO 1961                     
APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH    1975 TO PRESENT                  
PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH    1972 TO PRESENT                  
HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH    1950 TO PRESENT                  
ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH    1902 TO PRESENT                  
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE                
RIDGE SHIFTS NE OF THE CWA, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO            
AN ELY DIRECTION. IT WILL STILL BE COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN              
THE 60S. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS THURSDAY               
WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO LATE OCT NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID              
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN            
IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE                   
AMPLITUDE WILL CERTAINLY DECREASE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY                 
MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY                 
SETTING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE E/NE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN            
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A VERY SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE             
WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE              
WEEKEND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OR COOLING WITH THIS                   
SYSTEM, JUST REINFORCING THE STATUS QUO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ELY                
FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME SHOWERS INTO THE ERN CWA                
FROM THE ATLANTIC.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE            
FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY            
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR              
25 KT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE                
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS YESTERDAY. THE                  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE            
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW              
WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE. A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE               
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND               
SEAS SUBSIDE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON               
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
DOWN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WIND AND KBDI CRITERIA SHOULD KEEP AL/GA ZONES FROM             
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW RH DURATIONS            
WILL BE MORE THAN LONG ENOUGH FOR FLORIDA. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR                  
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER WINDS, SO WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR ALL            
FL ZONES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  60  31  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  61  38  64  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       59  33  64  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  33  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     59  33  64  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   63  31  67  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR               
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...AND                  
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR               
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND WORTH.                                        
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR               
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...                 
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                     
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT               
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                    
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                    
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO                  
     7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                       
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.              
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL               
     MILES INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/CAMP                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
830 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...                   
...FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AT 8 PM EDT...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS            
RANGED FROM LOW 50S/MID-UPPER 20S SE ALA/SW GA...TO MID 50S/MID 30S             
SE BIG BEND. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY             
COOLER AND DRIER LOCAL AIRMASS SINCE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AIRMASS               
RUNNING FROM 2 DEGREES COOLER SE BIG BEND UP TO 12 DEGREES COOLER SE            
ALA/WRN BIG BEND...AND RUNNING AROUND 20 DEGREES DRIER ACROSS LOCAL             
AREA. WINDS WERE GENERALLY N/NW AROUND 10 MPH.                                  
AT UPPER LEVELS...                                                              
H5 RUC ANALYSIS AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DEEP TROF BEING CARVED OUT             
FROM E/CNTRL CANADA THRU E/CNTRL GULF COAST. STRONG SHORT WAVE                  
DIGGING SWD FROM LWR OH RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP DEEPEN TROUGH AND                
EJECT IT ESE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS B4 IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE EAST              
COAST. LOCALLY THIS TRANSLATES TO A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -4C TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS              
FOR LATE OCTOBER. BY TUES AFTN...TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EWD INTO                
ADJACENT WRN ATLC.                                                              
AT LOWER LEVELS...                                                              
AT 8 PM EDT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM FLAGLER                
COUNTY SWWD THRU HERNANDO COUNTY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEX RACING                
SEWD. IT WAS CLEARLY IDENTIFIED BY AIRMASS CONTRASTS (TEMPS/DEW                 
POINTS MID 70/MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF...AND MID 60S/MID 40S JUST                  
BEHIND BOUNDARY. IN ITS WAKE...VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                
(1037MB) OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD LA            
EARLY TUESDAY AND TO OVER THE NE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...MUCH                
DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW-SE AS NOTED ABOVE AS                   
REFLECTED IN REGIONAL OBS WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO 20S ACROSS SE               
ALA. BONE DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED IN 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS I.E. TAE AND              
FFC (ATL) WITH 0.24 INCH PWAT EACH AND BMX 0.28 INCH PWAT. LATEST               
OBS SHOW THAT AS FRONT EXITS FURTHER AWAY...AND DIURNAL HEATING                 
ENDS...WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY).                                     
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE              
MODELS.                                                                         
REST OF TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THE ABOVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE                 
CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO                 
DECREASE BELOW 5 KNOTS AND REALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.                
NEVERTHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE                
FRONT IS STRONG ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO NOTICEABLY DROP THROUGH THE             
NIGHT. LOCALLY RUN GFE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND ONLY THEN IN THE            
WESTERN CWA SO NO NEED FOR FREEZE WARNING. WITH THE HIGH T/TD                   
SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 DEG F/ TONIGHT AND SUFFICIENTLY DRY              
AIR PLUS SURFACE WINDS GREATER THAN 5 KNOTS (AND KEEP LOWEST LEVELS             
SUFFICIENTLY MIXED) COMBINED WITH LOCAL BREEZES...DO NOT EXPECT                 
FROST TO DEVELOP...EVEN IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. NEVERTHELESS...ALL              
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION ARE URGED TO TAKE                      
PRECAUTIONS AS LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER              
30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE BROUGHT INSIDE IF                  
POSSIBLE TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD. INLAND WIND CHILLS WILL                 
HOVER AROUND 30 DEGREES.                                                        
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. THE UPPER                
TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE ENE AS ADVECTION BECOMES                   
NEUTRAL BY AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NWD AND LOCAL                   
GRADIENTS RELAX. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL SEASON                
THUS FAR AS SOME SITES STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES. WITH 10 TO 15              
MPH OF WIND AS WELL...IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY CHILLY FOR LATE                   
OCTOBER. (SEE NPWTAE AND/OR PREVIOUS AFD FOR TUES NIGHT FREEZING                
CONDITIONS AND WARNING).                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF             
PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER            
BREEZY DAY ON TUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12 KT AND GUSTS                   
FREQUENTLY REACHING 20 KT ONCE AGAIN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 8 PM EDT...OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY NW 20 TO 25 KNOTS           
WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET CLOSE              
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX. WE DO EXPECT THAT A PERIOD OF                   
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE               
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE               
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE A PROLONGED CAUTIONARY               
AND EVEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY EVENT BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE            
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN OUR TYPICALLY BREEZY             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUE...A WARNING IS ALREADY IN                
PLACE FOR OUR FL ZONES AND WILL BE CONTINUED. UP IN GA...WE BELIEVE             
THAT GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE            
OF A RED FLAG WARNING EVEN THOUGH RH WILL BE MORE THAN LOW ENOUGH.              
SE AL REMAINS A CONUNDRUM. WIND AND RH CRITERIA WILL EASILY MEET RED            
FLAG REQUIREMENTS. HOWEVER, THE KBDI IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 500.             
AFTER A FULL DAY OF DRYING ON SUN THE KBDI JUMPED ONLY 10 POINTS                
(FROM 404 TO 414) AT DHN. WHILE A BIGGER JUMP MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY,            
WILL DEFER AN WARNING DECISION TO THE MID SHIFT AFTER THEY GET A                
LOOK AT THE UPDATED KBDI NUMBERS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE                   
POSSIBLE IN FL EACH DAY THROUGH THU.                                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATOLOGY...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL             
BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE OCTOBER. NORMAL LOWS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF                
OCTOBER ARE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND. AT OUR INLAND SITES THE                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 36 DEGREES OR COLDER ON THE              
LAST THREE DAYS OF OCTOBER IS AROUND 35 PERCENT. CLOSER TO THE                  
COAST...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY DECREASES TO AROUND 20                   
PERCENT. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 32 DEGREES OR               
COLDER FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT AT OUR               
INLAND SITES AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THE COAST.                             
THUS...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO              
MID 30S...WE WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY            
MORNINGS AT SOME SITES. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED                 
SITES AROUND OUR REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE                 
COMPLETE AT SITES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. CONFIDENCE IN              
THE HISTORICAL RECORDS AT THE OTHER SITES ARE LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO             
SHORTER PERIODS OF RECORDS.                                                     
TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH)                                                  
TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962                                    
APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997                                    
HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968                                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987                                    
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001                                    
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987                                    
ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993                    
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989                                    
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989                                    
AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE                     PERIOD OF RECORD                  
TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH    1948 TO PRESENT                  
TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH     1885 TO 1961                     
APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH    1975 TO PRESENT                  
PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH    1972 TO PRESENT                  
HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH    1950 TO PRESENT                  
ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH    1902 TO PRESENT                  
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...                 
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...                     
     BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...                     
     DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...                        
     LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                        
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                       
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...                      
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM              
     CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60                     
     NAUTICAL MILES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BARRY                                                                
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
926 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...11 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT            
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC TO PEACHTREE CITY TO NEAR DOTHAN            
AND PENSACOLA. VERY TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS ANALYZED RIGHT BEHIND            
THIS FRONT...WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS                   
NORTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS WELL AS THE               
GRADIENT INCREASES THANKS TO A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN             
KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS SITES RIGHT AT SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE                
ALREADY SHOWING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                      
12 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT KTAE WAS CONDUCTED PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL            
PASSAGE...SO A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS PRESENT WITH A MIXED               
LAYER JUST ABOVE AS WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP OUT OF THE                     
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS JUST 900 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SOME                 
SUBTLE MOISTENING IS NOTED ON THE SOUNDING AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT...BUT AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE IS VERY LITTLE              
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                  
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF A DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THIS STEEPENING TROF             
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP COOLER AIR FUNNEL DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND               
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.               
CURRENT FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED              
THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING THE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE CLOSELY              
FOR THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...BUT ABSENT ANY              
SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE...EXPECT TO BE ISSUING A FREEZE              
WATCH ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY            
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH                
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER             
SUNSET.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS BEGINNING TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING RIGHT               
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESTIN IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS...AND              
EXPECT THESE HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS            
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH                  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO                    
DECREASE THESE WINDS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY WITH A VERY             
DRY AIRMASS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FLORIDA CRITERIA WILL                 
EASILY BE MET WITH RH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT AND HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS.            
GEORGIA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS 30 PERCENT RH LOOKS                
EASILY WITHIN REACH THERE...HOWEVER THE SUSTAINED 20 MPH WIND MAY               
PROVE ELUSIVE. IN ALABAMA...ALL CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE KBDI WILL             
BE MET. THE KBDI IN ALL FIVE COUNTIES WE SERVICE IS BETWEEN 375 AND             
425...WELL BELOW THE NECESSARY 500 REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATOLOGY...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL             
BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE OCTOBER. NORMAL LOWS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF                
OCTOBER ARE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND. AT OUR INLAND SITES THE                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 36 DEGREES OR COLDER ON THE              
LAST THREE DAYS OF OCTOBER IS AROUND 35 PERCENT. CLOSER TO THE                  
COAST...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY DECREASES TO AROUND 20                   
PERCENT. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 32 DEGREES OR               
COLDER FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT AT OUR               
INLAND SITES AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THE COAST.                             
THUS...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO              
MID 30S...WE WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY            
MORNINGS AT SOME SITES. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED                 
SITES AROUND OUR REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE                 
COMPLETE AT SITES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. CONFIDENCE IN              
THE HISTORICAL RECORDS AT THE OTHER SITES ARE LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO             
SHORTER PERIODS OF RECORDS.                                                     
TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH)                                                  
TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962                                    
APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997                                    
HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968                                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987                                    
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001                                    
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987                                    
ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993                    
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989                                    
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989                                    
AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE                     PERIOD OF RECORD                  
TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH    1948 TO PRESENT                  
TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH     1885 TO 1961                     
APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH    1975 TO PRESENT                  
PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH    1972 TO PRESENT                  
HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH    1950 TO PRESENT                  
ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH    1902 TO PRESENT                  
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS                 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...                        
     GENEVA...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.                                              
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...                       
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...                     
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...                    
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                  
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND                          
     WORTH.                                                                     
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7             
     PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                    
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                       
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...                        
     TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                                         
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8              
     PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...             
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND              
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                               
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM              
     CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                         
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                     
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM                 
     DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.                           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT                  
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO THE SUWANNEE                
     RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.                                   
$$                                                                              
GODSEY                                                                          
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
240 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
...GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY...                      
...NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...               
.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT             
EXTENDING FROM WV THROUGH ERN TN, NRN AL, CNTRL MS TO ERN TX. STRONG            
NWLY WINDS, COLDER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WERE SURGING SEWD BEHIND THE             
FRONT, PRECEDED BY A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY/RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH              
WILL SURGE QUICKLY SEWD TODAY, WITH ITS AXIS FROM THE ERN GREAT                 
LAKES TO FL BY TUESDAY MORNING. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL                    
RAPIDLY, WITH THE 540 DM CONTOUR AS FAR S AS SRN GA AT 12Z TUESDAY.             
THE TROUGH EXITS THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PLAINS RIDGE                     
APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY.                                                       
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FOCUS ON THE                
LOW TEMP FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN THEIR CONSISTENCY ON THE            
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE AREA THIS                 
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NWLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ABRUPTLY BEHIND            
THIS COLD FRONT AS A 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS             
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO             
20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ISSUE A             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND               
LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE                     
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT KEEP                
TEMPS IN THE 60S DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE.                                         
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER THE PRESSURE             
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS                  
OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION, IT IS LIKELY THAT                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDEST                
TEMPS WILL BE OVER OUR EXTREME NWRN ZONES, WITH MID 30S OVER THE                
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN AREAS. AT THIS              
TIME, WITH WINDS UP AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRY AIR MASS, DO NOT EXPECT               
FROST FORMATION. ON TUESDAY, COMPARED TO THE MILD TEMPS WE`VE BEEN              
ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS, IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS            
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. NWLY WINDS WILL            
NOT BE AS STRONG, BUT REMAIN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY. THE SURFACE RIDGE             
APPROACHES OUR WRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL TREND TOWARD               
LOWER-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST              
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE FROST                      
ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WATCHES, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED                
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE                
WEATHER GRIDS AS T/TD SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS             
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM. AFTER A CHILLY START TO WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON             
HIGHS WILL NOT RISE MUCH FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS, WITH THE MERCURY                 
REMAINING IN THE 60S.                                                           
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                  
MORNINGS. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED SITES AROUND OUR              
REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE COMPLETE AT SITES                
LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA.                                              
TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH)                                                  
TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962                                    
APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997                                    
HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968                                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987                                    
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001                                    
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987                                    
ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER                                                
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993                    
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993                                    
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE.....33 SET IN 1989                                    
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001                                    
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AT             
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY.               
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG HIGH            
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP                
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH VERY LOW POPS.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS AT 3500 FT FOR A BRIEF TIME              
AROUND SUNRISE, SKC WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS FOLLOWING THE                
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH              
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT            
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE WINDS            
WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE LEGS            
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY                   
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS                   
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE WATERS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS              
AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FL ZONES                  
APPEAR TO BE SURE BETS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.               
CURRENT KBDI VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS SE AL TO PRECLUDE RED FLAG            
CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST WINDS OVER SOUTH GA ARE LOW ENOUGH TO                
AVOID RED FLAG CRITERIA THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, IF CONDITIONS ARE               
WINDIER THAN ANTICIPATED, RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED THIS                   
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH GA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  69  34  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  70  41  63  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       67  36  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       67  36  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     68  35  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   75  35  63  32  68 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS                 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...                        
     GENEVA...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.                                              
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...                       
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...                     
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...                    
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                  
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND                          
     WORTH.                                                                     
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7             
     PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                    
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                       
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...                        
     TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                                         
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8              
     PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...             
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND              
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                               
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM              
     CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                         
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                     
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT                    
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60                    
     NAUTICAL MILES.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT                  
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO THE SUWANNEE                
     RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.                                   
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/CAMP                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                                        
MODEL TIME SECS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING              
BKN VFR DECK ACRS IND TODAY WITH ONLY SCT CU ELSEWHERE. RUC SOUNDING            
HAD BOUNDARY LYR WINDS OF LK MI SHIFTING TO A NW DIRECTION WHICH                
SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS E OF THE TAF SITES. LATER TNGT             
AS TIME SECS WERE SHOWING THINNING 850 MB MOISTURE...MODEL TIME SECS            
AND 700 MB RH PROGS FAVOR BRINGING BRINGING SOME AC IN THAT IS                  
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GFS 90% 700 MB RH ACRS NWRN MN AND                    
MANITOBA. NW WINDS WL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING OCCURS.                 
THEN...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE W AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNGT.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF MD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
SHOWERS MOVING NEARLY DUE S OFF THE ERN SHORE. IR SAT PIC SHOWS                 
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ACRS THE FA BUT CLR SKIES IN IL. TEMPS WERE IN              
THE MIDDLE 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND NWLY                 
WINDS AROUND 10KTS.                                                             
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/CLD CVR TODAY AND TEMPS THRU WED.                     
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATRN SO A BLEND WAS USED. FOR                      
TEMPS/POPS GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR SO A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED                
EXCEPT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS NOTED BELOW.                                        
TODAY...WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUDS OVR MUCH OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE N.             
GUIDANCE POPS ARE NIL BUT THINK A SLT CHC IN THE N THRU 18Z IS                  
WARRANTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS...FCST H8 WINDS AND NAM12 PRECIP                 
FCST. BASED ON H8 TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE            
LAKE ESP IN THE NE HALF OF THE FA WL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE                
YESTERDAY. THIS IS COLDER THAN EITHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVE ABOVE INFO            
AND CONTINUED COOL NW FLOW SEE NO REASON WHY TODAY SHUD BE WARMER.              
TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD BE CLEARING OUT BUT NOT NECESSARILY BY THE                 
BEGINNING OF THE PD ESP IN THE NE. WINDS WILL DROP                              
SOME...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T GO CALM WITH A PRES GRADIENT STILL ACRS              
INDIANA WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE SW. WITH WIND NOT GOING CALM WL                
STILL SEE A LITTLE MIXING SO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WL BE GOOD               
BUT NOT IDEAL. H8 WARM ADVECTION WL START UP BY 6Z. GUIDANCE HAS                
WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN                    
PREVIOUS RUN. THINK THE NORMAL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD BE               
MAKING GUIDANCE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE. WITH OLD                
GUIDANCE POSSIBLY TOO COOL GIVEN WAA AT H8 AND SFC WINDS...WL USE               
NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH SEEM TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND YIELDS LOWS              
FROM 29 TO 33. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUT WHERE THE LOWS WL              
END UP AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES WL KEEP THE FREEZE WATCH             
GOING.                                                                          
WED ON...WL SEE A WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS            
CLEARING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BLDING IN AND MOVING E...AND H8 WAA.               
BIG H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE MIDWEST AND KEEPS THE WX WARMER THAN                
SEASONAL AND DRY THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. NO CHANGES MADE TO               
THE EXTENDED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING                  
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                             
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TODAY FOR                                        
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MK                                                                   
PUBLIC...CP                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOT RESPONDING ALL THAT FAST EVEN THOUGH                  
BETTER MIXING IS NOW TAKING PLACE...EVIDENT BY THE INCREASING WINDS.            
AT BEST THERE ARE THREE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT SO WILL LOWER                     
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ADDITIONALLY...WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS              
WELL.    ...08...                                                               
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW DOMINATES NOAM EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY              
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.               
MEANWHILE... RIDGE WAS PUMPING UP ACROSS THE WEST BENEATH POLAR                 
JET...WHICH HAS UNDERGONE NORTHWARD SHIFT AND AMPLIFICATION WELL INTO           
CANADA. AT THE SFC... LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TX/LA GULF COAST.                  
SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS                
MORNING. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL...            
BUT INCOMING SUBSIDENCE FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS                
CHEWING AWAY AT WESTERN EDGE AND ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATION AS THE                
CLOUDS TRY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                
PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. AS A RESULT... TEMPS HAVE            
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS... WITH FEW DRAINAGE               
AREAS IN THE L20S NORTH. THUS... WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE ENDING               
THE GROWING SEASON.  ..MCCLURE..                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
FAIRLY BENIGN WX IN SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SFC               
RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT...              
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT                  
LAKES... PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.                    
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING                 
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER... DRYING WITH            
DEEPER MIXING TO NEAR H85 AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID               
DEMISE OF THE STRATOCU EARLY THIS AFTN. MIX DOWN TOOL FROM H85                  
SUPPORTS MAXES RANGING FROM MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST. GUSTY               
WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTN WITH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING             
15-20 KTS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER.                                            
06Z NAM/GFS/RUC REMAIN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING 700 MB RH.             
EARLIER THINKING THIS WAS OVERDONE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT                    
STARTING TO NOW SEE AC AND CIRRUS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST MN... AND             
LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TODAY                   
ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF. THUS... GOING SUNNY FCST COULD BE A BIT                
OPTIMISTIC AND COULD END UP PTSUNNY FOR A PERIOD.                               
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WARM              
ADVECTION MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT H925 WHILE SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST            
AND SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 5 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE ACROSS             
THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN                  
WARMER MINS MOST LOCALES FROM THOSE OF THIS MORNING. HAVE BUMPED                
MINS UP A COUPLE 2-3 DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST... BUT GENERALLY               
STAYED AT OR JUST BELOW THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH CLEAR                    
SKIES...DRY AIR AND SOME CONCERNS WINDS COULD DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE             
WEAK BOUNDARY.                ..MCCLURE..                                       
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                   
OVERVIEW...THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE               
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR               
THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LUCKILY THE REALLY                
COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED UP IN CANADA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.                      
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK                 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF             
A TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH GULF               
MOISTURE SHUT DOWN SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND            
THURSDAY. SPEAKING OF THURSDAY...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE            
WEEK. NICE DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY            
OF SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME                    
LOCATIONS AROUND 70. GUIDANCE USUALLY TOO COOL IN THIS TYPE OF                  
SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS TIME OF YEAR TO HAVE A DRAMATIC WARMUP YOU               
NEED A DECENT WIND TO TRANSPORT THE WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST...THE             
SUN ANGLE JUST ISNT ENOUGH TO DO IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE 850            
MB SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS SO SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. SO ITS             
A TRADE-OFF...YOU HAVE THE WARMER AIR BUT THE BRISK WIND MAKES IT               
FEEL A LITTLE COOLER. AMAZINGLY...SIMILAR WARM TEMPERATURES WERE                
EXPERIENCED A YEAR AGO ON OCTOBER 30.                                           
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON              
FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED BUT CANT            
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS IS               
MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD              
AIR STAYING WELL NORTH IN CANADA. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN                 
MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. BUT THIS TIME THE GULF WILL BE                
OPEN FOR BUSINESS AHEAD OF A STRONGER NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH THAT WILL            
BE HEADED FOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED            
AS THE GFS HINTS AT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS            
IN RAIN 24 HOURS LATER. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL LET             
LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE THIS SITUATION AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK               
AWAY.      ..HAASE..                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY               
TODAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY            
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY             
LATE MORNING WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING                
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEPER MIXING AND DRYING... AND INCOMING                    
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE            
SOME AC AND CIRRUS DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS              
SHOW 15 TO 20 KTS OF WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN            
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED ABOVE 10 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS AT TIMES.                 
WINDS DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN             
ADVANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY... THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE...MAINLY            
AT NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCID AND KDBQ.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCCLURE/HAASE                                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
438 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW DOMINATES NOAM EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP         
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.                    
MEANWHILE... RIDGE WAS PUMPING UP ACROSS THE WEST BENEATH POLAR JET...          
WHICH HAS UNDERGONE NORTHWARD SHIFT AND AMPLIFICATION WELL INTO                 
CANADA. AT THE SFC... LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TX/LA GULF COAST.                  
SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS                
MORNING. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE         
OF EASTERN TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL... BUT                 
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CHEWING            
AWAY AT WESTERN EDGE AND ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATION AS THE CLOUDS TRY TO          
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING IDEAL              
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. AS A RESULT... TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE         
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS... WITH FEW DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE L20S NORTH.         
THUS... WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE ENDING THE GROWING SEASON.  ..MCCLURE..       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
FAIRLY BENIGN WX IN SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SFC RIDGE WILL    
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT... AS A WEAK               
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... PASSING           
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE          
RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO GENERATE       
SOME STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.     
HOWEVER... DRYING WITH DEEPER MIXING TO NEAR H85 AND SUBSIDENCE WILL            
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE STRATOCU EARLY THIS AFTN. MIX DOWN TOOL       
FROM H85 SUPPORTS MAXES RANGING FROM MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.            
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTN WITH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING       
15-20 KTS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER.                                            
06Z NAM/GFS/RUC REMAIN PRETTY AGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING 700 MB RH. EARLIER      
THINKING THIS WAS OVERDONE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT STARTING TO NOW SEE        
AC AND CIRRUS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST MN... AND LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THIS WILL    
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF. THUS... GOING         
SUNNY FCST COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND COULD END UP PTSUNNY FOR A PERIOD.     
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION    
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT H925 WHILE SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT     
NEAR 5 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE       
OF WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS MOST LOCALES FROM THOSE     
OF THIS MORNING. HAVE BUMPED MINS UP A COUPLE 2-3 DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS        
FCST... BUT GENERALLY STAYED AT OR JUST BELOW THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH    
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND SOME CONCERNS WINDS COULD DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE       
WEAK BOUNDARY.                ..MCCLURE..                                       
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                   
OVERVIEW...THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER     
OF THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND.           
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LUCKILY THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED      
UP IN CANADA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.                                              
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UPPER LEVEL     
WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRACKING       
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUT DOWN SO PLENTY    
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SPEAKING OF THURSDAY...       
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. NICE DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE   
WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE       
60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND 70. GUIDANCE USUALLY TOO COOL IN THIS TYPE       
OF SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS TIME OF YEAR TO HAVE A DRAMATIC WARMUP YOU NEED       
A DECENT WIND TO TRANSPORT THE WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST...THE SUN ANGLE JUST   
ISNT ENOUGH TO DO IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS        
OF 30-35 KNOTS SO SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. SO ITS A TRADE-OFF...YOU HAVE THE     
WARMER AIR BUT THE BRISK WIND MAKES IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER. AMAZINGLY...       
SIMILAR WARM TEMPERATURES WERE EXPERIENCED A YEAR AGO ON OCTOBER 30.            
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY       
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED BUT CANT RULE OUT AN       
ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE   
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR...   
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH IN CANADA. MODERATING         
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. BUT THIS TIME THE GULF     
WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AHEAD OF A STRONGER NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH THAT WILL    
BE HEADED FOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS THE     
GFS HINTS AT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN RAIN 24 HOURS  
LATER. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE THIS    
SITUATION AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY.      ..HAASE..                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE         
RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE           
GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE       
NORTH. SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH             
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEPER       
MIXING AND DRYING... AND INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION           
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE SOME AC AND CIRRUS DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE        
AREA TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 15 TO 20 KTS OF WIND AT TOP OF MIXED            
LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED ABOVE 10 KTS WITH          
FEW GUSTS AT TIMES. WINDS DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE      
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY... THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE...     
MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCID AND KDBQ.                                  
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-       
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-       
     LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.                          
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-             
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-                    
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.                            
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCCLURE/HAASE                                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR REVISIONS TO FIRST PERIOD /TODAY/ FORECAST...18Z MONDAY                   
ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE AND PERTINENT FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALL OF THE INITIAL /AVAILABLE/ NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO                
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD BY AT LEAST 20-40 DM                 
THIS MORNING...BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR NEWD WITH THE HEIGHT FIELDS               
COMPARED TO HAND-DRAWN 12Z MONDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THE 13KM                  
RUC AND 12KM NAM WERE THE CLOSEST TO BEING REPRESENTATIVE WITH                  
MOISTURE/MASS/WIND FIELDS THIS MORNING...SO WERE USED FOR FIRST                 
PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS IN WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND OPAQUE CLOUD                
COVER. THE DEWPOINT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UTILIZED THE 12KM                   
NAM...MIXED FROM 800 MB TO THE SURFACE AT 18Z...THEN 825 MB AT                  
21Z...THEN 950 MB FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMED TO               
BLEND WELL WITH NWS OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WFO PAH                
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PLAN TO KEEP A MENTION OF BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST DIURNAL /AT                
LEAST THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/ MENTION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS AT                 
THE KCGI AND KPAH TAF SITES...WITH THIS CLOUD DECK PERSISTING                   
THROUGH AT LEAST 06-07Z TUESDAY OVER THE KEVV AND KOWB TAF SITES.               
MOST OF THE CEILINGS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 4-6KFT AGL. WINDS WILL                
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WITH                
SOME DECOUPLING /LOWERING/ OF WINDS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A POPLAR BLUFF/VAN BUREN MO                
LINE WILL TETTER CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON                      
/BETWEEN 17-21Z TODAY/. TEN HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALREADY               
AT 8 PERCENT AND HOURLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WITHIN                 
1-3 PERCENT OF CRITICAL VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR               
BELOW THE 15 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT LOCAL WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED                   
THIS WIND THRESHOLD PERIODICALLY. THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUD              
COVER CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EASTWARD SHOULD LIMIT                 
ANY ADDITIONAL DRYING DUE TO INSOLATION...WITH THE MAIN DRYING DUE              
TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. THEREFORE...ANY WILDFIRE CONCERN FURTHER                
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MARGINALIZED AT THIS POINT.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008/                     
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                                                   
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008/                               
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND                
FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BIG ISSUE IS                  
THAT THE COLD SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LOOKS LIKE              
IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD BE LOTS OF                   
STRATUS CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT IN OUR EAST/NE AREAS AS RIPPLES OF                 
ENERGY DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEP NW FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE                 
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                                   
WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE              
OVER THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...CLOSEST TO                
THE SFC HIGH. WILL UPGRADE AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A POPLAR BLUFF MO              
TO CARBONDALE IL TO CARMI IL LINE TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE                  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. WILL LEAVE WATCH POSTED ALL OTHER                       
AREAS...AND LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK. REALLY THINK CLOUDS               
AND/OR WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...AND MAY                  
SERVE TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE 32 FOR THE MOST PART.                                 
AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT...BEST                        
RADIATIONAL COOLING (IE. LIGHTEST WINDS) MAY WELL BE OVER OUR                   
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE...ESP LATER                
TUE NIGHT. WILL HOIST A WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE               
LATER. FROST MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TUE                       
NIGHT...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE LIGHTEST.                                     
OTHER THAN THE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT.                  
WILL SHADE TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...ESP EAST OF THE MS RIVER                
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. MODELS HAVE NO CLUE AS TO                 
THE LOW DEW POINTS IN THE AREA...SO WILL GO WELL BELOW MOS NUMBERS              
THERE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT                
RANGE ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE                    
COOLER MET MOS TEMPS TUE...AS 20 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS                  
DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WILL BE              
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP WED/THU AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.                
AVIATION...                                                                     
SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THINGS BREEZY TODAY. WILL KEEP WIND              
GUSTS MINIMAL THROUGH 15Z AND BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM 15Z               
TODAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. WILL HAVE VFR CIGS FOR KEVV AND KOWB ALMOST               
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE KCGI AND KPAH WITHOUT A CIG THROUGH               
15Z...THEN INTRODUCE A VFR CIG...AFTER SEEING SATELLITE TRENDS.                 
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY.                 
MOISTURE THINS OUT CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO                      
INDICATE THIS BY ADDING A TEMPO GROUP AT THE END OF THE TAF                     
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR                 
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-                   
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-                
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION                 
     KY-WEBSTER.                                                                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-               
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-                
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION                 
     KY-WEBSTER.                                                                
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR                 
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID.                                                    
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW                 
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.                            
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-                
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-               
     WAYNE MO.                                                                  
IL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR                 
     GALLATIN-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE.                  
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-                   
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-                    
     SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.                          
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-                
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-UNION                 
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WILLIAMSON.                                             
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR                 
     GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                             
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                     
LONG TERM....DH                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1032 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND THEN                  
CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
LATEST UA ANALYSIS INDICATING INTENSE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED                   
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALONG              
WITH INTENSE COOLING IS CAUSING THE COLUMN TO UNDERGO RAPID                     
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED           
OVER THE LAST HOUR ALONG WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING TOPS              
COOLING ALOFT. DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ACT ON THE                   
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT TO TRANSFER SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE                  
SURFACE OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO...               
THUS THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE                    
COMBINATION OF IMPACT AND DAMAGE INCURRING FROM STRONG WINDS                    
REACHING THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRID DATABASE TO INCLUDE                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. OTHER PARAMETERS IN GOOD SHAPE                
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.                                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND REVERSE TIDAL EFFECTS ON THE COAST.                 
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW.                                         
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS                
AND THE NORTH TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO                 
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AND                 
THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE.                                                     
THE NAM12/CARWWRF ON TARGET W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS ESP W/THE WARM              
SURGE THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESP THE EASTERN               
1/2. DECIDED ON THE CARWRF/S TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO TONIGHT AND               
THEN FOLLOWED W/THE GMOS AFT 06Z WHICH DOES ALIGN W/THE NAM & CARWRF.           
1ST SURGE OF STG WINDS TO MAKE THEIR INTO THE COAST AND INTERIOR                
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR W/THE              
COLD FRONT. THESE STG WINDS WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THREE THINGS WORTH                 
MENTIONING HERE ARE...1) SSE WINDS ALIGNING THROUGH 7K FT AND                   
INCREASING W/HEIGHT FROM 25 KTS IN THE BLYR TO 55 KTS THROUGH 5K                
FT ESP FROM 03Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. 2) MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 45-60                 
KTS DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE               
WINDS VEER MORE S IN TIME. 3) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER               
TONIGHT FROM 5.5-6.0 C/KM TO 6.5 C/KM OR SO RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND                
THEN PULL OUT AS CAA TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE COLUMN. THINKING HERE               
IS THAT GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE IN ORDER W/A MODERATE IMPACT.                      
RADAR IMAGERY HAD RAIN MOVING INTO SWRN ME AND ANOTHER AREA                     
PULLING WNW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE NAM AND RUC HAD A GOOD                   
HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE THROUGH THE                 
EVENING W/ADJUSTMENTS AFT 06Z TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AS THAT               
MAIN AREA RAIN LIFT NORTH. ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ALLOWING              
FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.              
ATTM...WE DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. THE EVENING CREW CAN                   
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/LATER GUIDANCE.                                           
LAST THING IS THE CONCERN FOR REVERSE TIDAL SURGE TONIGHT AND                   
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING ESP AROUND THE TIME HIGH TIDE. USING THE                
LOCAL NOMOGRAM YIELD A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AND THIS ADDED TO THE HIGH                
TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL.              
HOWEVER...INCREASING SEAS AND SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR               
SOME MINOR ISSUES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER                  
DETAILS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE                  
SOUTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE                
LOW MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE               
LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF                     
NORTHWESTERN MAINE WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY.               
FURTHER EAST DOWN SLOPING WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR A BIT LEAVING ONLY             
CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES. BY THURSDAY THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL               
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO               
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THURSDAY                
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS MAINLY              
IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MILDER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD                  
FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A                    
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION                
SUNDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO                   
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS              
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT               
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW                    
SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW                   
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL                          
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR              
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE               
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE                      
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                         
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE                     
NORTH/MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: THE NAM12 LOOKED TO BE SUPPORTING LATEST CONDITIONS OUT              
THERE. WINDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP TO 10-15 KT AS                      
MIDNIGHT CREW STATED. SURGE OF STG WINDS WILL COME AFT 00Z                      
REACHING 30-35 KTS. SEAS 5 FT OR SO OUT THERE ATTM. WNAWAVE                     
RUNNING A FOOT OR 2 TOO HIGH. STARTED THINGS OUT A FOOT BELOW THE               
GUIDANCE AND THEN USED THE PREV FCSTD WAVE HEIGHTS W/A SLIGHT                   
ADJUSTMENT ON TIMING TO BACK THEM UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO PER THE                  
LAST 3 HRLY TRENDS.                                                             
SHORT TERM: THE GALE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOLLOWING THE GALE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL               
LIKELY BE IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR SEAS ON                     
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH                    
PRESSURE RIDGES IN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006.                
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR                             
     MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032.                                               
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT                                                  
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...NORCROSS                                                            
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT                                                   
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/BLOOMER                                             
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
415 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO              
QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA                   
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF               
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE                
FOLLOWED BY COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND REVERSE TIDAL EFFECTS ON THE COAST.                 
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW.                                         
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS                
AND THE NORTH TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO                 
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AND                 
THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE.                                                     
THE NAM12/CARWWRF ON TARGET W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS ESP W/THE WARM              
SURGE THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESP THE EASTERN               
1/2. DECIDED ON THE CARWRF/S TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO TONIGHT AND               
THEN FOLLOWED W/THE GMOS AFT 06Z WHICH DOES ALIGN W/THE NAM & CARWRF.           
1ST SURGE OF STG WINDS TO MAKE THEIR INTO THE COAST AND INTERIOR                
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR W/THE              
COLD FRONT. THESE STG WINDS WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THREE THINGS WORTH                 
MENTIONING HERE ARE...1) SSE WINDS ALIGNING THROUGH 7K FT AND                   
INCREASING W/HEIGHT FROM 25 KTS IN THE BLYR TO 55 KTS THROUGH 5K                
FT ESP FROM 03Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. 2) MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 45-60                 
KTS DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE               
WINDS VEER MORE S IN TIME. 3) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER               
TONIGHT FROM 5.5-6.0 C/KM TO 6.5 C/KM OR SO RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND                
THEN PULL OUT AS CAA TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE COLUMN. THINKING HERE               
IS THAT GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE IN ORDER W/A MODERATE IMPACT.                      
RADAR IMAGERY HAD RAIN MOVING INTO SWRN ME AND ANOTHER AREA                     
PULLING WNW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE NAM AND RUC HAD A GOOD                   
HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE THROUGH THE                 
EVENING W/ADJUSTMENTS AFT 06Z TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AS THAT               
MAIN AREA RAIN LIFT NORTH. ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ALLOWING              
FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.              
ATTM...WE DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. THE EVENING CREW CAN                   
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/LATER GUIDANCE.                                           
LAST THING IS THE CONCERN FOR REVERSE TIDAL SURGE TONIGHT AND                   
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING ESP AROUND THE TIME HIGH TIDE. USING THE                
LOCAL NOMOGRAM YIELD A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AND THIS ADDED TO THE HIGH                
TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL.              
HOWEVER...INCREASING SEAS AND SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR               
SOME MINOR ISSUES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE                  
SOUTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE                
LOW MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE               
LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF                     
NORTHWESTERN MAINE WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY.               
FURTHER EAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR A BIT LEAVING ONLY              
CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES. BY THURSDAY THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL               
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO               
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THURSDAY                
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS                     
MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MILDER AIR AHEAD OF                  
A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A                    
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION                
SUNDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO                   
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS              
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT               
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW                    
SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW                   
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL                          
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR              
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE               
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE                      
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                         
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE                     
NORTH/MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE FORECAST STRONG WINDS...FUNNELING UP COASTAL RIVER BASINS NEAR              
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING                 
AREAS. MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM 8:00 PM UNTIL AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT...THROUGH THE APEX OF THE TIDE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: THE NAM12 LOOKED TO BE SUPPORTING LATEST CONDITIONS OUT              
THERE. WINDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP TO 10-15 KT AS                      
MIDNIGHT CREW STATED. SURGE OF STG WINDS WILL COME AFT 00Z                      
REACHING 30-35 KTS. SEAS 5 FT OR SO OUT THERE ATTM. WNAWAVE                     
RUNNING A FOOT OR 2 TOO HIGH. STARTED THINGS OUT A FOOT BELOW THE               
GUIDANCE AND THEN USED THE PREV FCSTD WAVE HEIGHTS W/A SLIGHT                   
ADJUSTMENT ON TIMING TO BACK THEM UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO PER THE                  
LAST 3 HRLY TRENDS.                                                             
SHORT TERM: THE GALE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOLLOWING THE GALE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL               
LIKELY BE IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR SEAS ON                     
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH                    
PRESSURE RIDGES IN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT                     
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006.                                                  
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ010-011-                 
     015>017-029>032.                                                           
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR           
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...NORCROSS                                                            
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER                                                         
HYDROLOGY...TURNER                                                              
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
532 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL                  
CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE                   
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST OVER                
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION              
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
WNDS NOT QUITE TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTRN...SO DECIDED            
TO REPLACE HIGH WIND WRNG WITH A WND ADVSRY ACROSS THE ERN SHORE                
AREAS THRU EVE HRS. ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF ANY MORE RAIN AS LTST               
RADAR TRENDS SHOW PCPN HAS MOVED N AND E OF RGN.                                
NO OTHR CHANGES FOR NOW. WILL CONT TO MONITOR WND GUSTS NXT FEW HRS             
TO SEE IF WND ADVSRY CAN BE DROPPED B4 MIDNITE.                                 
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR (EXCEPT ERN SHORE) ENOUGH OF AWIND                    
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST                  
(MORE ISOLATED THAN WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED IN TIMEFRAME OF IT TO                
OCCUR/PREVAIL). THEREFORE WILL KEEP WRDG OUT OF ZONES. MIN TEMPS                
IN THE 30S (WARMEST ALONG THE COAST).                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF...EXCEPT ERN SHORE WHERE P/C SKIES             
WILL CONTINUE. CU FIELD REDEVELOPS LATE AM/ERLY PM OVER THE RGN BUT             
LESS BREEZY IN THE AFTN THAN TODAY (STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ERN                
SHORE). LOOK FOR SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE CWA. SECONDARY               
H85 TROF PUSHES N/S OVER THE ERN THIRD LATE DAY/EVE AND NAM                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS               
ALONG THE COAST TWRDS THE EVE BUT KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR                
NOW. OVERNIGHT SKIES BECOME CLR/MO CLR OVER INLAND VA/NC (WHILE                 
CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BUT BULK MAINLY OFFSHORE). TEMPS WILL            
DROP BEHIND H85 TROF PASSAGE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE OFF AND DROP               
TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. THINKING A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR            
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF INLAND CWA AS FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE LIKELY              
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HRS...SO HAVE ADDED WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE FCST            
(AWAY FROM THE COAST). WILL KEEP OUT FRZ WRNG HEADLINES FOR NOW                 
SINCE IT IS LATE 3RD PERIOD AND LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THE FINAL CALL            
ON WHAT COUNTIES TO BE INCLUDED IN HEADLINE.                                    
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE RGN ON THU BUT                    
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH MAXES REACHING BACK INTO THE 50S.                
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY LEADING TO S-M/S SKIES.            
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT AS CENTER OF RIDGE                     
POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE RGN. HAVE WENT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DEW PTS             
FOR MIN TEMPS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND CLR SKIES. EXPECTING                
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE (POSSIBLY CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THU AM).                 
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START...BACKSIDE OF H50 RIDGE PUSHES                       
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RGN ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE FRI AND INTO                
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
HELD ON TO DRY EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DRY AND GENLY BENIGN                      
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                    
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING UPR TROF PUSHING OFF THE NERN             
COAST FRIDAY....WITH A SFC (DRY) COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION BY              
ERY SUNDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE                         
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGING                
INTO THE M/U 60S...TO NEAR 70 OVER INTERIOR NE NC ZONES.                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPR MID-ATL/NEW                
ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY-TUES. ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLDS FROM RESULTANT                
N/NE FLOW ON MON/TUE...DRY WX CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL              
BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE LATTER END OF THE                     
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
STRNG WNDS NW OR W WNDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS              
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...THEN AGAIN (BUT NOT AS STRNG) FOR MUCH OF                
WED...AS INTENSE LO PRES MOVES AWAY TO THE N. HIEST WNDS WILL                   
CONTINUE AT SBY. OTHRWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES                 
THIS AFTN THRU WED...WITH SCT-BKN SC OR LWR AC EXPECTED. HI PRES                
AND CALMER VFR CONDS THEN ARRIVING FOR WED NGT INTO THE WKND.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PRES GRADIENT FROM DEEPENING 988MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND                 
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR VERY GUSTY W/NW WNDS TDA. BUFKIT MOMENTUM                
XFER CORRECTLY POINTING OUT GUSTS TO LOW END GALE THUS FAR...WITH               
MADIS ACARS SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOWING WNDS ALOFT IN THE 45-55KT RANGE            
AT H92-H85. GIVEN THESE WINDS...WILL HOLD ON TO WIND HEADLINES OVER             
LAND FOR NOW...AND STORM WARNING FLAGS OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS             
(PARRAMORE ISLAND TO FENWICK ISLAND) WITH GALES ELSEWHERE. RUC/WRF              
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT INDICATE WE MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK GALES TO              
SCA OVER FAR SOUTHERN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE CHES                  
BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO              
SLACKEN AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH             
TO DO SO ATTM. WL BRIEF EVENING CREW AND ALLOW THEM TO REASSESS AS              
CONDITIONS WARRANT.                                                             
AFTER GALE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE...SCA FLAGS SHUD FLY OVER THE WATERS              
THROUGH AT LEAST ERY THU BEFORE WNDS SUBSIDE BY THU. HIGH PRES                  
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR FRI/SAT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.             
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT WE              
HV PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS.                                              
MRP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS BLOWOUT TIDE CONDITIONS THIS            
EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY FROM PARRAMORE             
ISLAND NORTHWARD. EXISTING LOW WATER ADVSY FOR THE NRN TWO COASTAL              
WATER ZONES (WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE STORM WARNING) LOOK GOOD               
AND HV NOT BEEN ALTERED. TIDE LEVELS IN THIS AREA LOOK TO RUN ON THE            
ORDER OF 2 TO 2.5 FT BELOW NORMAL...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND                  
RUNNING THRU WED AFTERNOON.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.                   
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ064-072>078-               
     084>086-099-100.                                                           
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-654-656-          
     658.                                                                       
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.                
     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW/MPR                                                             
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...MAM                                                                 
AVIATION...TMG                                                                  
MARINE...MAM                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1024 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND                
MOVE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE. STRONG NW FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND             
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO                   
USHER IN COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY THU AND AND ALLOW A                        
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH                 
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE               
MID ATLC COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS.                 
VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING...EVIDENT            
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTOGENETIC BANDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PER              
KAKQ RADAR LOOPS. LATEST IR STLT IMAGERY SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF WARM             
CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) TOWARD THE CLASSIC "S" SHAPE ACROSS THE ERN                 
HALF OF VA AND FAR ERN NC...WHILE LOWER LAYER CLOUDS (ASSCD WITH COLD           
CONVEYOR BELT OR CCB) MOVE TRACK N-S.                                           
RUC MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CSI                     
AND...GIVEN THE LIFT/MOISTURE SUPPORT UNDER THE PHASED WCB/CCB...               
THE DEVELOPMENT OF N-S SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH HAS BEEN              
CONFIRMED BY RADAR. THE UPSHOT...BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE                      
ELEMENTS (ADDED LLVL COLUMN COOLING DUE TO THE ENHANCED DIABATIC                
EFFECTS OF EVAPORATION AND MELTING)...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF                 
SNOW/SLEET WITH THE RAIN. IN FACT...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET              
MIXING WITH THE RAIN HAVE BEEN RELAYED TO OUR OFFICE THIS EVENING               
UNDER THE STRONGEST BANDS.                                                      
LATER TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL TAPER IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE               
FROM W-E AS THE DEEPER FORCING AND CLOUD COVER (WCB) PULLS OFF TO               
THE E. LLVL MSTR (CCB) WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE DOWNSLOPING NW               
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LOW LLVLS. AS FOR SFC TEMP TRENDS                      
OVERNIGHT... DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF DROPOFF AFTER THE PRECIP PULLS               
OUT...EVEN AS WE SEE SOME CLEARING...GIVEN THE LLVL CAA AND                     
CONTINUED BNDRY LAYER MIXING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 30S TO NEAR              
40 AWAY FROM THE COAST... WHICH ISN`T FAR OFF FROM WHERE WE ARE                 
LATE THIS EVENING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND               
WED AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND INTO            
CANADA WED. LOOKING TO THE WEST...1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER            
THE GREAT PLAINS TUE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES              
WED AND THU.                                                                    
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
AROUND MINUS 3 WILL BOTH LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES WED. SOME CLOUD              
COVER WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
AREA. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT..ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS WL ALLOW                 
FOR BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.                  
AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND                           
HEADLINES...WITH THE BELIEF THAT WNDS SHUD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVY              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING WED AND THU MORNINGS..             
MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WIND AND SOME CLOUD COVER                
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO SOME EXTENT. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE                
ISSUED DURING LATER SHIFTS FOR SOME AREAS W OF I-95 AND ON THE MD               
EASTERN SHORE BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS.                                        
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THU WITH                  
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...AS UPR TROF PUSHES                 
OUT TO THE NORTH AND EASH AND SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR THE REGION BY              
LT WEEK. A COLD FRNT WL PUSH ACRS THE AREA FM THE NW SAT NGT AND                
SUN. LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT LKS TO BE LACKING...AND IF THE                
ECMWF SOLN IS CORRECT...FRONT WL BE QUICK MOVING WITH LTL IF                    
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF QPF. HELD ON TO SILENT POPS (OR LESS) FOR                
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
MAX TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK GOOD...AND DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH FROM                
INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN ARND THE 60S FRI AND                      
SAT...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE               
MID 30S TO LWR 40S FRI MORNG...WITH UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SAT                      
MORNG...AND IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 SUN MORNG.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WINDS GUSTING STILL AS INITIAL FRONTAL PASS CROSSES OVER SRN                    
SECTIONS OF THE RGN AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN               
UNDER 20 KTS INTO THIS EVE. BATCH OF SHRA MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL VA              
AND WILL BRING THE CHC OF MVFR VSBY IN -SHRA AT FIRST. AS STORM                 
DEEPENS CLOUD BASE WILL FALL (ESP EAST OF I-95). CIGS LOOK TO DROP              
TO IFR ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES FOR A TIME TNT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT            
TIMES IN SHRA ACTIVITY. TWRDS SUNRISE DRY AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO               
THE RGN W/E AND WILL LIFT CIGS TO MVFR/VFR AS THE MORNING                       
PROGRESSES. ON THE OTHER HAND WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH            
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL BE                          
POSSIBLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (ESP                
SBY/ORF) LATE AM/PM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES SYS DEVELOPING ALONG BNDRY                
OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVERNIGHT TO OFF              
THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY BY TUE MORNING...THEN TO THE UPPER NEW                  
ENGLAND AREA BY TUE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE                     
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN CHES BAY WTRS INTO TUE.                                    
GALES IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAR S CHES                          
BAY...SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER              
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND (FOR NOW) THRU WED OVER NORTHERN ZONES.               
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER OUT IN TIME BY FUTURE                      
SHIFTS.                                                                         
BUFKIT MOMENTUM XFER VALUES EASILY YIELD 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS OVER                 
ERN SHORE/AND NRTRN COASTAL WTRS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.                   
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN BY THU WITH LIGHTER WINDS. AS FOR               
SEAS/WAVES...OFFSHORE WNW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING THAT                
HIGH...MAINLY ARND 5 TO 6 FT....ABOUT 4 FT IN THE BAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-656-658.                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-              
     633.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JEF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LSA                                                                
LONG TERM...MAM                                                                 
AVIATION...CCW                                                                  
MARINE...JEF                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
107 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND                     
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND             
INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER              
UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE             
ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS.               
THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN            
BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL            
SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE                
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH                
BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS               
HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO             
THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN            
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN                    
SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF             
THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE               
CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER                 
FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE                      
SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS            
UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY...                  
SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT.                                                        
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN                
U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z.                
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE             
SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE              
SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE            
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT             
FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR             
THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN             
WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT            
AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP            
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE            
SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED                      
BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE                  
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT                 
CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH                
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT             
OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.           
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS                 
EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z.              
WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP                 
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE                
LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND               
DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE                
EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE              
EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN            
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL             
SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED            
BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN              
MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE            
OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT                 
PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN               
THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND              
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                   
WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO                
MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT            
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN                   
FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA...                  
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND                  
WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO               
-10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES              
COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL                     
EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL               
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN                 
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE             
WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN                      
YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO              
MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH               
THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB)               
SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN                  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL              
NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED                  
NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE.               
OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM                     
ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED             
NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE               
CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE                 
RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON                    
THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN             
A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z            
FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT                
850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT                
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO            
HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE              
IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                
CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP               
THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI               
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT               
LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS                
COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE                
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS             
SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE            
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO            
KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE            
FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK            
OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL               
THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN            
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL.                                      
FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A             
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM                
CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE              
COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW            
THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR.               
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT            
THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH            
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE              
LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO            
UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR                 
SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A                
SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO            
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE                  
PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...HIGH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...AND SUBSIDENCE            
WITH ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STUNT LK EFFECT EFFECT SHSN THROUGHU              
THE PERIOD. WITH A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL                  
DEVELOP ALONG WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT            
KSAW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED              
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF                
COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES                
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW            
DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO              
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH            
WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO              
GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND                     
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND             
INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER              
UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE             
ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS.               
THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN            
BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL            
SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE                
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH                
BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS               
HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO             
THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN            
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN                    
SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF             
THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE               
CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER                 
FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE                      
SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS            
UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY...                  
SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT.                                                        
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN                
U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z.                
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE             
SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE              
SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE            
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT             
FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR             
THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN             
WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT            
AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP            
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE            
SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED                      
BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE                  
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT                 
CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH                
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT             
OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.           
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS                 
EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z.              
WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP                 
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE                
LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND               
DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE                
EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE              
EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN            
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL             
SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED            
BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN              
MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE            
OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT                 
PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN               
THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND              
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                   
WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO                
MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT            
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN                   
FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA...                  
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND                  
WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO               
-10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES              
COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL                     
EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL               
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN                 
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE             
WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN                      
YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO              
MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH               
THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB)               
SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN                  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL              
NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED                  
NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE.               
OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM                     
ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED             
NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE               
CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE                 
RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON                    
THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN             
A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z            
FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT                
850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT                
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO            
HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE              
IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                
CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP               
THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI               
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT               
LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS                
COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE                
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS             
SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE            
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO            
KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE            
FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK            
OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL               
THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN            
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL.                                      
FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A             
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM                
CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE              
COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW            
THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR.               
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT            
THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH            
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE              
LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO            
UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR                 
SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A                
SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO            
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE                  
PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...HIGH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...                          
AND SUBSIDENCEWITH ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STUNT LK EFFECT EFFECT              
SHSN TODAY LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WITHIN THE SC UPSTREAM ARE              
GENERALLY VFR. WITH A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL               
DEVELOP ALONG WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT            
KSAW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED              
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF                
COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES                
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW            
DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO              
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH            
WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO              
GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND                     
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND             
INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER              
UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE             
ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS.               
THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN            
BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL            
SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE                
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH                
BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS               
HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO             
THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN            
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN                    
SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF             
THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE               
CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER                 
FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE                      
SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS            
UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY...                  
SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT.                                                        
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN                
U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z.                
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE             
SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE              
SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE            
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT             
FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR             
THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN             
WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT            
AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP            
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE            
SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED                      
BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE                  
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT                 
CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH                
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT             
OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.           
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS                 
EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z.              
WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP                 
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE                
LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND               
DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE                
EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE              
EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN            
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL             
SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED            
BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN              
MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE            
OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT                 
PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN               
THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND              
OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                   
WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO                
MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT            
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN                   
FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA...                  
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND                  
WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO               
-10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES              
COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL                     
EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL               
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN                 
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE             
WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN                      
YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO              
MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH               
THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB)               
SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN                  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL              
NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED                  
NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE.               
OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM                     
ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED             
NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE               
CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE                 
RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON                    
THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN             
A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z            
FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT                
850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT                
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO            
HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE              
IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                
CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP               
THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI               
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT               
LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS                
COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE                
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS             
SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE            
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO            
KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE            
FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK            
OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL               
THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN            
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL.                                      
FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A             
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM                
CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE              
COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW            
THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR.               
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT            
THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH            
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE              
LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO            
UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR                 
SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A                
SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO            
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE                  
PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW PER 00Z RAOB FM INL AND RECENT TAMDAR             
SDNGS TO THE NW/HI SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND SUBSIDENCE/INCRSGLY ACYC            
LLVL FLOW WL STUNT LK EFFECT SHSN INTO TUE...WITH VFR VSBY. CIGS                
WITHIN THE SC UPSTREAM ARE GENERALLY VFR. ALTHOUGH AN MVFR DECK IS              
PSBL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT CMX PER A FEW UPSTREAM OBS...VFR CIGS               
SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT BOTH SITES. SOME -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP            
TMRW AFTN/EVNG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND ACCOMPANING                
COLD FROPA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED              
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF                
COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES                
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW            
DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO              
30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH            
WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO              
GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
129 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/                                                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE ON A WEATHER ROLLER COASTER OVER THE COMING           
WEEK.  INITIALLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES               
WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO            
MODERATE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH A NICE WARM UP IN STORE                 
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME.                     
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1104 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON                              
AHH...WINTER. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST                
AND DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS. H8 TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN                
TO -8C IN WHITEFISH BAY...TO -4C OVER SAG BAY. PRECIP IN THE                    
HIGHEST TERRAIN IS NOW PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE SHOWERS ROLL                   
THROUGH. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -7C TO -9C BY 21Z LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON....ESSENTIALLY CHANGING MOST ALL AREAS TO SNOW. SOME                  
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF NE LOWER...AND OVER THE LAKE WATERS OF NRN               
LOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX AT TIMES THROUGH THIS                      
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN               
1200 FEET. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE TO MORE OF                 
A SNOW CHANCE INTO THE EVENING.                                                 
LOOKING AT 12Z APX SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON...SEE NO REASON WHY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL NOT                 
FIRE OFF. SEEING ONLY A MINOR CAP AROUND 700MB...OTHERWISE                      
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST (H5 TEMPS ARE SILL -32C              
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON). WENT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS BETWEEN 18-21Z               
BEFORE THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                 
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH FOR SURE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM                   
GROUND AND WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY ONLY ALLOW FOR A                  
DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AND EVEN THAT MIGHT JUST BE                   
TEMPORARY).                                                                     
SNEAK PEEK AT TONIGHT...EARLIER NAM12 (06Z RUN) WAS SUGGESTING A                
VERY NICE CONVERGENT BAND FROM NRN LK SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH NRN GTV             
BAY AND KALKASKA COUNTY OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY A FEW                
INCHES. LATEST 12Z RUN...COMPLETELY RULES THAT OUT...WITH MORE                  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER AS WEAK MID LEVEL                     
RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. NOT SURE WHAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR               
TONIGHT JUST YET...REQUIRES MORE DIGGING/ANALYSIS. SMD                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND                            
TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 340 DEGREE RANGE                 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE TO               
ALL FROZEN THIS EVENING EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                    
SHORELINE...THINKING THIS AREA STILL HAS A CHANCE OF SEE SOME MIXED             
PRECIP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.  AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...LAKE                
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER 900J/KG TO START THE                 
EVENING...THEN DROP TO 500-600J/KG OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION COMES                 
DOWN.  STILL SOME HEALTHY VALUES...AND WITH LONG FETCH COMING DOWN              
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE A NICE BAND DEVELOP IN            
THE VICINITY OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  NOT SURE I WANT TO OVERDO IT AT            
THIS POINT AS FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSERVATIVE...BUT               
THESE EARLY SEASON EVENTS HAVE A TENDENCY TO JUMP UP AND BITE US                
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  PLAN TO CARRY AN INCH OR TWO            
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ROUGHLY BETWEEN M-37 AND I-75.                            
TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...AND               
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST U.S. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO              
THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS (850MB TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING TO AROUND -10C BY TUESDAY NIGHT).  AT THE SAME TIME...THIS             
WILL ALSO INCREASE DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY                 
NIGHT.  SO CONDITIONS WILL...SLOWLY...BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO LAKE               
INDUCED CONVECTION.  BUT IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONVECTION TO                   
CONTINUE TO COME IN OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.  HOW FAR INLAND            
SNOW/MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT IS IN QUESTION...WILL NOT                  
CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS NORTHEAST LOWER BASICALLY DRY               
BUT THIS ISSUE WILL NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.                                      
EARLY EXTENDED PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE             
TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/                                                    
AT FIRST GLANCE LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE ABLE TO PULL THE GALE WARNINGS              
IN FAVOR OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES THIS                 
MORNING.  THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE A PRESS TIME DECISION...BUT                   
GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW             
GALE FORCE SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING.  CURRENTLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT             
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST                 
LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES AS WELL AS ON LAKE HURON FROM THE STRAITS DOWN            
TO THUNDER BAY.  PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY                
INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW            
ENGLAND COAST (MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 30KTS)...SO IT IS             
POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN SEE GALES ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 126 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS                             
NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT ROLLS ON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWER                          
DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE RESULTING IN VFR                    
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WITH THE SHOWERS. TAF SITES MAY BE ABLE TO SEE               
SOME SNOW MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY ALL                 
SNOW TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. SMD                          
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-                
     344>346.                                                                   
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-             
     346.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.                
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-             
     322.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG                
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...AND A LARGE UPPER                
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HARD TO FIND REALLY ANY STRONG                  
SHRTWVS WITHIN THE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI...THOUGH THERE              
ARE WEAK ONES PRESENT JUST NW OF ISLE ROYALE AND ANOTHER NEAR                   
CENTRAL MANITOBA. PER 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS...THE CWA IS             
IN A LITTLE WARMER POCKET...WITH -6 TO -8C READINGS FROM DVN TO BIS             
AND NE TO CWPL...WHILE READINGS WERE MORE -2 TO -4C OVER THE CWA.               
07Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THESE HAVE FALLEN TO -4 TO -7C...AND                 
COLDER AIR OF -10 TO -12C EXISTS IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE                
COLD AIR IS ALSO QUITE MOIST...WITH SOUNDINGS AT INL AND CWPL NEARLY            
SATURATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE. DUE TO THE MOIST COLD AIR             
FLOWING ACROSS 8C WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED               
AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BLUSTERY               
OUT OF THE NW...BETWEEN A 996MB LOW AT THE SE END OF HUDSON BAY AND             
A 1039MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF            
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE. GUSTS              
SO FAR HAVE PEAKED AT 44 MPH AT COPPER HARBOR...38 MPH AT CMX...43              
KT OR 49 MPH AT STANNARD ROCK AND 41 MPH AT MUNISING. PCPN TYPE HAS             
BEEN GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER             
MI AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE...WITH EVEN OUR OFFICE NOW SNOWING WITH A            
TEMPERATURE OF 34. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT GREAT HERE              
AT OUR OFFICE GIVEN WARM GROUND AND THE TEMPERATURE...WITH ONLY A               
LITTLE SLUSH ON CARS. BEST GUESS IS THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN             
AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY HAVE PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO...             
LIKELY ON GRASS SURFACES OR CARS. A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT HAPPENED                
WILL COME IN A FEW HOURS FROM COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS.                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSITION OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS WEEK.                                 
TODAY...SHRTWV NW OF ISLE ROYALE LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FAR                 
WESTERN U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING...AROUND 12Z...THEN HEADS SOUTH TO              
SRN LAKE MI BY 00Z. 500MB HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI RISE BEHIND THIS                
SHRTWV...AND IN GENERAL AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST. THESE HEIGHT RISES MEANS SOME             
SUBSIDENCE WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER TODAY TO LOWER INVERSION                   
HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE SQUASH LAKE EFFECT A BIT. EXPECT THE EFFECT TO            
BE MOST PROMINENT IN THE WESTERN U.P....WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST             
HEIGHT RISE OCCURS AND IS ALSO CLOSER TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING             
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S F IN                    
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO). THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT FEEL THE EFFECT              
AS MUCH...DUE TO UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE NIPIGON. PCPN SHOULD              
CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR OVER MANITOBA             
AND NW ONTARIO SURGES IN. LOOKING AT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN               
OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY.               
PCPN OVER THE EASTERN U.P. LOOKS TO START OFF AS A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX...THEN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 18Z. ACCUMULATION                        
WISE...MAJORITY OF LIFT BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND                
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN TO             
AROUND 10 TO 1...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT                
MOST. GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HURON MOUNTAINS.               
THE EASTERN CWA NORMALLY WOULD HAVE MORE SNOW...BUT WITH THE MORNING            
STARTING OFF WITH A MIX AND THE WARM FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING             
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THE DAY...ACCUMULATIONS                
THERE WILL BE KEPT DOWN.                                                        
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...REACHING AN AXIS AT             
12Z TUE FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MEANS MORE                
HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED TO INCREASE                
ANYWHERE FROM 10 METERS OVER THE EAST TO 60 METERS IN THE WEST.                 
THEREFORE...MORE SUBSIDENCE AND WITH THE GREATER RISES IN THE                   
WEST...THE MOST SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE THERE. SO EXPECT THE LAKE                
EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE TO GET SQUASHED BY LOWERING INVERSION                   
HEIGHTS. IN FACT...OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AFTER 06Z THERE MAY NOT BE             
A LOT GOING ON AS OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN INDICATES. AGAIN...THE                  
EASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN MORE LAKE EFFECT BANDING DUE TO            
LESSER HEIGHT RISES AND UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE NIPIGON.                   
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EASTERN CWA WILL DEPEND IF ANY OF THE BANDS               
CAN STAY IN PLACE...BUT OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN DOES NOT SHOW THIS                
HAPPENING UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z WHEN THE BAND THAT EXTENDS OFF LAKE                
NIPIGON BECOMES STATIONARY BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. WAS                     
ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT THE BAND COULD PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFALL...              
BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BAND ONLY AROUND 4000 FT DEEP AND MUCH OF IT             
IN TEMPS AT OR ABOVE -12C. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN             
CLOSER TO 10 TO 1...AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH            
OR TWO. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WRF-ARW FOR              
MIN TEMPS. COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND ALONG THE WI BORDER WITH            
LEAST MODIFICATION OF THE AIR BY LAKE SUPERIOR.                                 
TUESDAY...GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW A SHRTWV CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE               
GULF OF AK INTO NW CANADA DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND AT LEAST            
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WED...IF NOT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHRTWV WILL BE TO HOLD COLD AIR IN              
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD AIR SHOULD HELP IN MAINTAINING             
THE SINGLE BAND OFF LAKE NIPIGON INTO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES            
AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS. LAKE              
EFFECT BANDS SHOULD BE GOING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT COVERAGE            
WILL DIMINISH GOING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE LOWER INVERSIONS ARE            
IN PLACE. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF A MIX WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON               
WITH THE EASTERN U.P. LAKE EFFECT AS MODEL WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE            
BELOW 700 FT AGL (WHERE RAIN WOULD START MIXING IN). LAKE EFFECT                
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -10C RANGE WILL HOLD            
TEMPS DOWN FOR A SECOND DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER             
30S EXPECTED.                                                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED              
TO EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW              
QUICK WILL DEPEND ON HOW WRAPPED UP THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE               
AREA BECOMES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AS MOST MODELS               
SHOW SOME 980S MB LOW OVER QUEBEC BY 00Z THU. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS             
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BY 00Z THU...THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY                  
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS REPRESENTING THE INFLECTION                
POINT WITHIN THE 500MB FLOW REACHING UPPER MI. THIS RIDGE AND THE               
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO END ANY LAKE EFFECT BY             
WED AFTN. REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR TUE NIGHT...THE LAKE               
NIPIGON BAND INTO ALGER COUNTY APPEARS TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE            
NIGHT AND MOVING PARTIALLY INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS LAND BREEZES                
FORM OFF ONTARIO. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. AMOUNTS DO               
NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH...DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION               
AND THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL NEAR               
THE WI BORDER...PROBABLY IN THE MID 20S. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR...LOWER             
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED...RISING 850MB TEMPS WHICH ARE PROGGED            
TO CLIMB 10C BTWN 12Z AND 00Z WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY. WARMEST              
READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER SINCE THE WARM AIR WILL BE                
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV                  
GUIDANCE AGAIN.                                                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...A SWITCH TO MILDER WEATHER WILL BE TAKING PLACE             
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND PUSHES INTO            
UPPER MI...AHEAD OF A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS A SURGE OF WARM 850MB TEMPS...PROGGED             
TO REACH 12-14C OVER UPPER MI ON THU. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE                 
DRY...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS                   
CROSSING WED NIGHT...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.             
THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WARM DAY ON THU...ESPECIALLY WITH            
A SW BREEZE EXPECTED. HAVE RAISED TEMPS ON THU TO MEX GUIDANCE...BUT            
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE AT LEAST DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE              
LOW 60S. RECORD HIGH HERE AT THE OFFICE IS 63 SET IN 1978...AND                 
DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE CAN MIX IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THAT RECORD MAY            
BE BROKEN.                                                                      
THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN INTO                 
UPPER MI ON HALLOWEEN...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER COLD SHOT...                   
REFLECTED BY 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8C OR SO BY 00Z SAT PER                    
GFS/ECMWF. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20 POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRI AFTN.            
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DIFFERENCE             
WITH THIS COLD SHOT TO THE CURRENT ONE IS THAT IT LOOKS VERY                    
DRY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED AT 00Z SUN WHEN A 1040 MB HIGH IS                   
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40C!            
SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOUNT TO MUCH. RETURN FLOW                
STARTS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE NEW ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS              
BOUNCING BACK UP TO 6-8C BY 00Z MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE TRADITIONAL FALL             
WEATHER WITH BACK AND FORTH SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS ESPECIALLY AT CMX INTO MON WITH FVRBL TERRAIN             
ENHANCEMENT...BUT WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG AS PRES             
RISE CENTER PASSES TO THE SE AND GRADIENT GRDLY DIMINISHES. UPSTREAM            
AIRMASS IS TENDING TO DRY A BIT IN THE LLVLS...SO CIGS WL VARY FM               
MVFR TO VFR THRU THE EARLY MRNG...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD VFR MON AFTN            
WITH SOME DAYTIME HTG/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE                
SOME LK EFFECT SHRASN CHGING TO SN...THE DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIMIT                
VSBY RESTRICTION.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM               
WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE            
GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY LATE TODAY            
INTO TUE. NORTH TO NW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY TUE              
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC FROM THE              
EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO                
NEAR 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING                
     FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-243>245-             
     263.                                                                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR                       
     LSZ240>242.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERING CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE EAST                
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW                    
FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE IS THE 522 DAM UPPER LOW IN FAR NRN                       
ONTARIO...WHICH HAS AN ASSOCIATED 986MB LOW AT THE SFC. THE SECOND              
FEATURES IS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN...WHICH                 
SHOULD BRING FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND             
PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 850 MB              
TEMPS ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE            
-8 TO -10C RANGE AND THESE COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE            
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING CHANGEOVER OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN                   
SHOWERS TO SNOW TONIGHT AND STATUS OF CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR             
THE WEST.                                                                       
AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...850MB                
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO -5 TO -8C BY 06Z AND TO -8 TO -10C BY               
12Z MON...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS WEST. SO EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT TO            
SET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WE LOSE ENHANCEMENT FROM DEPARTING              
SHORTWAVE. MODELS SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP RH FROM SFC-700 MB TONIGHT             
WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE NW (310 DEG) AND 850MB WIND            
SPEEDS OF 30-40 KTS. AS PCPN CHANGES OVER TO MORE SNOW LATE THIS                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...EXPECT ACCUMULATING LES TO BE               
DISPLACED INLAND DUE TO STRONG WINDS. SINCE THE MODEL SNDGS INDICATE            
THE BEST OMEGA/LIFT IS BELOW THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH                
EXPECT SNOW/WATER RATIO NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 10/1. HAVE WENT WITH A             
GENERAL 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES...HIGHEST BTWN IWD AND ROCKLAND...AS             
WELL AS OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS...WHERE HIGHER 950MB CNVGC/LIFT                
TAKES PLACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE EAST UNTIL            
LATE TONIGHT AS GREATER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MODIFY TEMPS            
MORE THERE. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR                 
LOWS...WHICH INDICATE READINGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30 OVER THE              
WRN INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES AND EASTERN CWA.                          
MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
ALLOW CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER              
IN THE -8 AND -10C RANGE. THUS...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO PERSIST             
THROUGH THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PCPN TYPE SHOULD CHANGE            
OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY MAYBE AS SOON AS LATE                
MORNING. MODELS SNDGS INDICATE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST AS               
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. DRYING EVEN NOTED BLO THE INVERSION FOR WRN            
SNDGS. EXPECT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO              
AN INCH OR TWO. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL HINTING A LOCALLY MORE                   
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER ALGER COUNTY                 
WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMTS OVER THOSE AREAS. EVEN SO...                  
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT...AS HIGHS EAST ARE STILL                 
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH SOME MODIFICATION FROM THE            
LAKE. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER            
TO MID 30S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY)                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH               
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH                
EDGES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -12C             
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR CREATING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 17C. THE              
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH VALLEY AND             
BRING A NORTH WIND TO THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MOVING THROUGH THE              
AREA FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED MOISTURE FIELD LATER IN THE NIGHT.                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.                                   
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...AS THE             
SURFACE RIDGE EDGES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL                
CONTINUE TO KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE AREA BACKING NORTHWEST IN            
THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE RIDGE WILL REDUCE THE                
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST LATE. SINCE THE FLOW IS OUT              
OF THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER             
EAST END OF CWA.                                                                
GFS MOVES TRACKS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST FORECAST AREA ON                 
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW               
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH              
THE SLOWER CONSENSUS. THIS WOULD KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.               
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PART OF THE CWA.                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AND THURSDAY PUSHED ALONG BY A RIDGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL               
TRACK OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE WEST            
END ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN            
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA             
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED               
IN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BY THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST                  
CONUS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL DRAW LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS             
APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY ENOUGH OVER THE AREA TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT.            
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB TEMPERATURES             
SHOULD REACH AROUND 13C OVER THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. HELPING TO              
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.                                           
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...                  
DRAWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND                    
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE            
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.              
ECMWF STILL SHOWING ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LIMIT ANY                        
PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL            
LOWER 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -4C OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO              
DEVELOP. PLAN TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY IN THE FORECASTS.                         
A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY AND SWEEP                
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT                  
DEEPENS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA             
AND SETTLE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP               
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR                 
LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TO -8C TO -10C DEPENDING ON WHICH                
MODEL USED. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO              
PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL ADD LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY             
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL CHANGE SOME OF LES TO                
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS.               
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING            
WARMER DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE LES POTENTIAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS ESPECIALLY AT CMX INTO MON WITH FVRBL TERRAIN             
ENHANCEMENT...BUT WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG AS PRES             
RISE CENTER PASSES TO THE SE AND GRADIENT GRDLY DIMINISHES. UPSTREAM            
AIRMASS IS TENDING TO DRY A BIT IN THE LLVLS...SO CIGS WL VARY FM               
MVFR TO VFR THRU THE EARLY MRNG...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD VFR MON AFTN            
WITH SOME DAYTIME HTG/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE                
SOME LK EFFECT SHRASN CHGING TO SN...THE DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIMIT                
VSBY RESTRICTION.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
CAA RESULTING IN DECREASING STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT               
WILL ALLOW STRONG 925-850 MB NW WINDS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH            
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATER AS            
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WEAKENS AND HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL                  
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE                  
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS                
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON               
THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE 30 KNOT WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                  
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO              
     8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR                  
     LSZ264-267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265-266.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-                   
     240>242-263.                                                               
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR                    
     LSZ249>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR                   
     LSZ245-248.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR                   
     LSZ243-244.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                      
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 209 AM CDT                                                 
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEGREE              
OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU.                                                     
GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH                    
CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY                  
TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND                    
CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                    
TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED               
LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND                
WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE                    
DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE              
RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR               
AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF               
FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS               
MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD              
ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH              
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                               
CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH /               
500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE.                 
SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT                        
PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW                
UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT.                       
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN              
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS                  
SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN                 
THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE             
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS              
MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN                    
APPEAR POSSIBLE.                                                                
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE                     
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST                    
NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A                
WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD                   
MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH                 
TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL              
TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD                
YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT                 
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND                  
ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW              
IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS                
TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO             
FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                   
OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB               
AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN               
THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A                    
REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR                
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS              
BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET AGL THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN CLEARING                   
TONIGHT. SFC WNDS REMAINING GUSTY AROUND 25 KNOTS...THEN DIMINISHING            
TO UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. GENLY EXCELLENT FLYING                    
CONDITIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
545 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 209 AM CDT                                                 
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE                     
DEGREE OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU.                                              
GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH                    
CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY                  
TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND                    
CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                    
TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED               
LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND                
WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE                    
DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE              
RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR               
AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF               
FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS               
MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD              
ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH              
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                               
CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH /               
500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE.                 
SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT                        
PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW                
UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT.                       
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN              
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS                  
SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN                 
THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE             
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS              
MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN                    
APPEAR POSSIBLE.                                                                
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE                     
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST                    
NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A                
WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD                   
MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH                 
TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL              
TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD                
YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT                 
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND                  
ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW              
IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS                
TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO             
FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                   
OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB               
AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN               
THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A                    
REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR                
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
IR SATL IMAGERY SHWG NMRS LGE BRKS DVLPG IN CLD DECK ACRS AREA WITH             
MANY OF THE LARGER LAKES BCMG VSBL. TRENDED MOST TAF SITES TWRD BKN             
CIGS IN 4K TO 5K RANGE THRU MUCH OF DAY...WITH CLRNG FM W-E THIS                
AFTN/EVE AS HIGH PRES MVS IN.  VORT NR YQT WL CONT TO DIVE SE AND WL            
BRNG THREAT OF FEW FLURYS AT WI TAF SITES NEXT SVRL HRS. RATHER                 
GUSTY SFC WNDS TO CONT THRU MUCH OF DAY WITH STG PRES GRAD...BUT WL             
DMNSH WC MN BY MID AFTN AS SFC RIDGE APRCHS. MAINLY CLR OVRNITE                 
UNDER COLD HI PRES.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/BAP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
209 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE                     
DEGREE OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU.                                              
GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH                    
CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY                  
TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND                    
CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                    
TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED               
LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND                
WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE                    
DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE              
RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR               
AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF               
FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS               
MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD              
ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH              
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                               
CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH /               
500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE.                 
SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT                        
PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW                
UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT.                       
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN              
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS                  
SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN                 
THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE             
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS              
MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN                    
APPEAR POSSIBLE.                                                                
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE                     
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST                    
NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A                
WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD                   
MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH                 
TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL              
TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD                
YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT                 
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND                  
ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW              
IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS                
TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO             
FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                   
OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB               
AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN               
THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A                    
REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR                
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CIGS PREDOMINATELY VFR ACROSS FA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
WITH PERHAPS BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR IN -SN...AS SHEARED TROUGH MOVING               
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR ALL                
BUT KRWF THROUGH 11Z OR SO. ALSO POSSIBLE RASN YET OVER WC WI AS                
WELL...BUT TENDENCY IS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL THIS AM. WINDS                
SLOWLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY/BUT REMAINING GUSTY MON AS SFC                 
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH OVER                 
THE AREA UNTIL RDG PASSES SO WILL GO ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST               
TO EAST DURING TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 23Z MON MOST                  
AREAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
746 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW                           
ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW AND RAIN              
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. WINDY               
AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WARMER AND              
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                               
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WESTERN MA/CT WITH              
PRESSURE HAVING FALLEN TO 988 MB AS OF 19Z IS CONTINUING TO MOVE                
NORTH NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TO THE WEST OF THIS                   
SYSTEM...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION...AND STRONG MID LEVEL                          
FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAKENING OVER THE I81 CORRIDOR...WITH                         
PRECIPITATION RATES DECREASING AS A RESULT. FURTHER EAST...OVER                 
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...A NEW DEFORMATION BAND IS PROGGED BY THE                
LATEST SHORT TERM RUC TO FORM...AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS PROCESS                
IS UNDERWAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE OVER THE VERY EASTERN-              
MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AREAS WAS                  
STARTING TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IS NOW ENDING...SO OVER THE AREA               
THAT HAD NO HEADLINES...VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED.                          
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE VERY                   
VARIABLE...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG I81 SEEING ALMOST                   
NOTHING...AND AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS ABOVE 1500-2000                    
FEET SEEING NEARLY ONE FOOT OF SNOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE                         
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON OUT BEING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A KBGM               
TO KMSV...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                    
FURTHER NORTH...OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NO SNOW HAS                            
OCCURRED...AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR A CHANGEOVER AS THE BACK                 
EDGE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA LATE THIS EVENING. COULD                
SEE AN INCH IN THE VALLEY WITH 2 TO 4 ABOVE 1500 FEET.                          
FINALLY...OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY...CURRENT REPORTS SUGGEST RAIN                 
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW...AND GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE THE LAST                      
LOCATION TO HAVE THE PRECIP END...WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE                
FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE                  
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY.                                                    
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE/LL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE                  
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR A SINGLE BAND              
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. DO EXPECT SOME SHSN GIVEN SYNOPTIC              
SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NOT MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.                                                     
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT                    
FALLING MUCH BELOW 30F BY DAYBREAK.                                             
FINALLY...WINDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 20-25G30-35KTS WILL WANE                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                               
THE SIGNATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON WEDNESDAY               
AS A 300 DEGREE FLOW SETS UP WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO                  
AROUND 10KFT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE                
NORTHEASTERN US CUTOFF ADDING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT                       
/HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OVER PA/. THE ONLY             
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE BL TEMPS...WHICH AGAIN...WITH LLEVEL FLOW               
COMING OFF THE LAKE...WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 33-36 F RANGE. FEEL                 
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN               
ONONDAGA/MADISON AND NORTHERN CORTLAND/CHENANGO COUNTIES WHERE THE              
TERRAIN IS HIGHER AND LLEVEL TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. RIGHT               
NOW AM EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS BEING LIMITED BY 1-THE                 
FLOW BEING A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY FOR GOOD SINGLE BAND DEVELOPMENT              
AND 2-BL TEMPS BEING MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A COOL AND                    
BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHRASN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO                  
35-40F AS T925 AROUND -1C...AND MCLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL                
BE GUSTY...BUT NOT A STRONG AS ON TUESDAY...GUSTING TO 25KTS                    
DURING THE DAY.                                                                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL GAIN AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY                  
COMPONENT AS RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.              
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE              
EFFECT...THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW                       
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT SCT SHSN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL              
NEW YORK WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE A LITTLE COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30F GIVEN                 
LESS MIXING AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.                                      
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BETTER DAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE                    
NORTHEASTERN US PULLS AWAY WITH THE H85 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING BY               
EVENING. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ANY               
LAKE EFFECT SHRASN WILL END...AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. T925              
WILL BE SIMILAR TO ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...               
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOUNCE INTO THE 40S                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
GIVEN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY                
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS. ONLY WX-MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE               
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES FRI NGT/SAT. PLAYED A                
BAND OF FNTL-CLDS AND LOW CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE WITH THIS SYSTEM.               
OTRW WE XPCT HI PRES TO BE IN CONTROL WITH FAIR WX.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MAIN SNOW BANDS LIFT OFF               
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR KSYR...KRME...KBGM...AND                         
KITH...THOUGH...MVFR TO IFR SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS                
SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS START TO KICK IN. FOR KELM AND                    
KAVP...A TRANSITION BACK TO VFR SHOULD TAKE PLACE.                              
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT...UP TO 30 KT THIS EVENING OUT                
OF THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.                          
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY FROM TIME               
TO TIME ON WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING MAINLY KSYR AND KRME...VFR SHOULD              
BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP              
TO 20 KT OR SO...OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WED NGT THRU SUNDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD...WITH A CHC                 
FOR BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS FRI NGT/SAT AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVS THRU.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-               
     040-043-044-047-048-072.                                                   
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018-               
     044-045-056-062.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-036-              
     037-046-057.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JMA                                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...MLJ                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY                  
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SNOW WILL              
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW              
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                   
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING              
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 10AM...FORECAST CONTINUES TO GO PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO                  
PLAN. LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAS REACHED AROUND 990 MB...IS NEARING               
LONG ISLAND WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW                  
YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY.                
BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GOOD                        
FRONTOGENESIS...AND NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 500-700 HPA LAYER. PTYPE                
HAS BEEN VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT...AS WELL AS RELATED TO PRECIP                
INTENSITY WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH                    
TERRAIN EAST OF I 81 AND SOUTH OF I 88 WHERE UP TO 8-9 INCHES HAS               
BEEN REPORTED IN THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE                             
CATSKILLS/POCONOS. SHORT TERM RUC FORECASTS...AND RECENT                        
TRENDS...SUGGEST THAT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...THE H85                 
LOW WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH WITH TEMPS ALOFT COOLING THIS              
AFTERNOON. WHILE BL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING...THE                
COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND...WITH MORE              
VALLEY LOCATIONS CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.                               
BASED ON CURRENT MEASUREMENTS AND TRENDS...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO              
FLAGS THIS MORNING...AND HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED AN INCREASED SNOW              
GRADIENT IN THE VERTICAL...WITH A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO IN THE                     
VALLEYS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR BY LATE EVENING...WITH UP TO A FOOT              
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2KFT IN THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS. ADDITIONAL                   
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY...GIVEN INCREASING                  
INSOLATION AND WARM GROUND TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL               
LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS WARMTH...AGAIN ESP OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.              
WINDS ARE COMING UP ATTM WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS ATTM. AS THE LOW                   
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT              
WILL INCREASE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AREA WIDE BY                     
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE                  
WORDED THIS STRONGLY IN THE WSW AND THE HWO.                                    
TWEAKED OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT THINGS ARE IN                  
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.                                                              
UPDATED PRODUCTS/GRIDS ARE ON THE STREET.                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH GOING AS PLANNED AS LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING              
OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, AND TEMPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE                
BEEN SLOWLY FALLING FROM NEAR 40 INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS              
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA WHERE INCREASING PRECIP RATES HAVE                   
COOLED THE COLUMN. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, PRECIP HAS SPREAD FURTHER                
TO THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN                     
RESPONSE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT BANDING GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 THIS                
MORNING AS LOW TRACKS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS                   
AFTN. KEPT THE FORECAST GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND                     
HEADLINES AS IS. A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF                   
EASTERN BROOME, CHENANGO, AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE                  
SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA. DID BUMP UP THE HIGHER               
END OF THE TOTALS FOR THESE COUNTIES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS,                
KEEPING ADVISORY AVERAGE ACCUMS INTACT.                                         
AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY              
INCREASE WINDS...REACHING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY                     
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE NEAR ADVISORY WINDS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS                
ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME                  
FALLING BRANCHES/TREES/WIRES DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND ANY                  
REMAINING FOLIAGE ON THE TREES. POWER OUTAGES LIKELY.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SRN CANADA THIS EVENING, WILL SEE                   
PRECIP TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE DEPARTING              
LOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERNIGHT                 
ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA COUNTIES AND CONTINUE THRU                     
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NGT ON A GENERAL 290-300 FLOW WITH AMPLE                     
LAKE/TEMP DIFFERENTIAL. ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THAT MAY MAKE              
A LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE NECESSARY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS SHIFT              
WITH SO MUCH GOING ON FOR THE NEXT 12 PLUS HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO              
MENTION IN THE HWO.                                                             
ELSEWHERE...A BLUSTERY AND COOL DAY WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING                   
TOWARDS 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY               
THURSDAY, GRADUALLY SHUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
GIVEN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY                
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS. ONLY WX-MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE               
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES FRI NGT/SAT. PLAYED A                
BAND OF FNTL-CLDS AND LOW CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE WITH THIS SYSTEM.               
OTRW WE XPCT HI PRES TO BE IN CONTROL WITH FAIR WX.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
WDSPRD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN...WITH             
LCL LIFR...MAINLY ON THE HILLTOPS. PCPN SHIELD WITH SNOW AT HIGHER              
ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN OR A MIX IN THE VLYS...WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING             
NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG...WITH PCPN XPCTD TO TAPER OFF               
IN THE 20Z (FAR WEST) TO 04Z (FAR NE) TIME FRAME. WE XPCT MORE                  
-SHSN TO DVLP LATER TNGT AND PERSIST INTO WED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS              
PREVAILING. WINDS NW 15-25 G35 THIS AFTN...DIMINISHING A BIT                    
TNGT...AND 15-25 ON WED.                                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WED NGT THRU SUNDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD...WITH A CHC                 
FOR BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS FRI NGT/SAT AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVS THRU.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-               
     040-043-044-047-048-072.                                                   
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018-               
     036-037-044-045-056-062.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-046-              
     057.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JML                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA/JML                                                             
SHORT TERM...JML                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
153 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH                
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION                  
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF                
THE EAST COAST, AND MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.                
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR GETS               
FILTERED INTO THE REGION, AND PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND                      
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON                       
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1130AM...ONE FINAL UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND AFTERNOON POPS                
AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ECHOES ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND ON OUR              
RADAR AND THOSE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AS MID LEVEL                            
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DIGGING                    
TROUGH...SUGGESTING SOME ISO SHRA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. TWEAKED                
TEMPS JUST A TAD....AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS CONSIDERABLY                
AS DRY AIR GETS DRAWN IN FROM THE WEST AND WE MIX OUT OVER AREAS                
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE ON THE STREET.                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON RELATIVE LACK OF                       
PRECIPITATION ON THE RADAR SCOPE AS OF 13Z. HAVE SEEN SOME                      
ISOLATED SHRA BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW STALLING OVER THE                   
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BUT DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN AT LOW                    
LEVELS AND SHOULD DIMINISH THE SHRA CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON.                 
HOWEVER...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING WEST OF OUR AREA...AND                 
FLOW BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL OVERHEAD AS A RESULT...EXPECT BAND                
OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO HAVE                   
TROUBLE MOVING MUCH TO THE EAST...WITH THE MOST SUNNY BREAKS                    
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81. THE RUC EVEN                   
SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TOWARDS                         
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS CURRENT FORECAST              
IS DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AND HAVE                  
MADE VERY FEW TWEAKS WITH THEM. TOMORROW/S FORECAST LOOKS VERY                  
INTERESTING GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE 6Z GUIDANCE. SNOW NOT                
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR CATSKILL ZONES NORTH AND EAST. 12Z                  
GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TO TRICKLE IN...SO WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS               
LATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE                    
TRENDING TWD A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NAM                
IS THE MOST DEVELOPED AND SLOWER OF THE MODELS, SO IT`S SOLUTION                
WAS LEANED AWAY FROM FOR THIS FCST PKG. FOLLOWED A MORE MIDDLE OF THE           
ROAD APPROACH TWD THE GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEVELOPED                
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FOCUS THE CORE OF               
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM NWD FROM THE ADIRONDACKS              
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW ECMWF JUST                 
COMING IN IS ALSO TRENDING TWD A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE                 
NAM AND GFS...SO THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING OVER THE                 
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A              
FAIRLY SIMILAR SOLUTION. IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE              
FROM SRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT              
EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND TEMP PROFILES, IT IS              
POSSIBLE THAT MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXTEND FURTHER TO THE                
SOUTH AND WEST THAN CURRENT THINKING.                                           
TEMP PROFILES INDICATE PRECIP WOULD START OUT IN LIQUID FORM, THEN              
LEAN TWD A CHANGE OVER TO MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW DURING               
TUESDAY AFTN AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED IN AND THE COLUMN COOLS.                 
SRN PART OF THE TUG HILL MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME OF THE                    
HEAVIER SNOW THAT LOOKS LIKE WILL FALL TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW, HAVE              
INCLUDED SNOW TOTALS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY AFTN INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT UP ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY.                                          
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE               
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB              
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -8C.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
GIVEN THE COMPLEX AND SIG WINTER WX EVENT THAT WE`RE XPCTNG LATER               
TNGT AND ON TUES...WE DEFAULTED TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM                  
RNG...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWED OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS. LINGERING                
LES LIKELY NRN ZONES ON WED NGT...DIMINISHING LATE AS HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND LATE WEEK AHEAD OF                    
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO PASS FRI NGT OR SAT MRNG                  
WITH LIMITED MSTR. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH FAIR WX FCST               
INTO EARLY NXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVNG AS RAIN DVLPS                 
ACRS THE RGN. WDSPRD MVFR CIGS BY MID EVNG...LOWERING TO IFR                    
OVERNGT. RAIN IS FCST TO MIX WITH OR CHGOVER TO SNOW LATE TNGT OR               
EARLY TMRW MRNG..ALTHO PCPN AT SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID THRU               
18Z. XPCT WDSPRD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TMRW DUE TO RA/SN/LOW                 
CIGS. IN ADDN...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DVLP AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO               
PULL OUT...WITH MOST SITES 15-25 G25-30.                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUES NGT INTO WED...GNRLY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ACRS UPSTATE                      
NY...MVFR OVER NE PA IN SCT -SHSN.                                              
WED NGT...MVFR ACRS UPSTATE DUE TO LES...VFR ELSEWHERE.                         
THU/THU NGT/FRI...VFR.                                                          
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR WITH SCT -SHRA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JML                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JML                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATES. WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH FA AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. LITTLE AFFECTS WITH             
FEATURE AS SURFACE FLOW SO WEAK AND LITTLE OVERALL TEMPERATURE                  
ADVECTION. SOME UPSTREAM MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER                     
RIDGE BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME ADVANCING SOUTH. RUC DOES BRING A                 
FINGER OF HIGH LEVEL RH INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARDS MORNING BUT                 
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS            
SHOULD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LINING UP            
WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES. OVERALL                  
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO UPDATE NOT REQUIRED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1013 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...NO NEED TO UPDATE FOR TODAY. 12Z NAM/RUC AGREE WITH               
ALL PARAMETERS OF CURRENT FORECAST...AND CURRENT TEMP RISE ON                   
TRACK WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL RISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM                    
INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (POSSIBLY SCT CIRRUS...BUT NOTHING                
OF IMPORTANCE).                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY.                 
SOME CIRRUS OVER NW MN...OTHERWISE CLEAR.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A WELCOME DRY                
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A GOOD 8               
TO 10C TODAY. THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...THE SOUTHWEST               
DIRECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE                 
THOSE ON TUESDAY. WITH A WARMER START THAN EXPECTED...MOST SITES                
WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME CIRRUS WILL                      
CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO NRN MN OVER THE 500 MB RIDGE                   
CENTERED OVER MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE FULL SUN EXPECTED. TONIGHT                
WILL SEE A WEAK COOL FRONT DROP SOUTH AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROP                 
SOUTHEAST THRU ONTARIO AND WINDS TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY. ON                       
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND 850 MB                  
TEMPS WARM ANOTHER 5C WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA               
12-18Z THURSDAY. THUS CONTINUED WARMING BOTH DAYS...WITH UPR 50S                
TO MID 60S A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH HAD A COLDER SHOT OF AIR COMING                  
DOWN IS NO LONGER ADVERTISED BY ANY MODEL. ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN                 
BRUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH SO UPWARD ADJUSTMENT              
TO HIGHS NEEDED FOR FRI-SAT. NOW...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOTS OF                 
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS NOTED BY PRELIM EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM                   
HPC. 500 MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF SHORE THE PAC NW WITH SHORT                 
WAVES LIKELY TO ENTER THE PLAINS. 18Z MON AND 00Z TUES GFS RUNS                 
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW DUE SUN NIGHT-                 
MON BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS WHICH                
HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN. CURRENT GRIDDS FAVOR              
THIS WEAKER SOLN SO WILL MAINTAIN IT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                  
WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE               
SEASON`S FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING                   
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SHOWERS IN NRN AND WRN MTS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THEY TRY                 
TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL TROF LOOKS TO BE OVER THE                 
SUSQ VALLEY ACCORDING TO THE PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE COLD AIR IS               
JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO EASTER OHIO ACCORDING TO THE SFC OBS.                
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU OHIO...WHICH                  
PROMISES TO HELP FIRE UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OVER THE NEXT                  
COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASINGLY CHILLY AIR POURS INTO THE REGION.                
FOR TODAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CYCLONIC                        
FLOW...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE THEIR PRESENCE                
FELT. MODELS AGREE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY WILL BE                      
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCED...MEANING WESTERN AND NORTHER HIGH                 
TERRAIN WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO                 
INSERTED WORDING FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS THE VERY                 
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO SHARPLY                  
DECEASE STABILITY. PROGGED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7C/KM BY                
AFTERNOON...WITH LI`S APPROACHING ZERO AND T-TOTALS NEARING 60.                 
WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL...BUT WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR ALOFT                 
POURING IN...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL MAKE FOR               
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                         
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE EARLY ON IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH               
THE NAM WANTING TO BRUSH MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SIG                  
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EVENTUAL OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED                
WITH OUR DEEPENING UPPER AIR LOW/TROF. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE AGREES               
WE SEE SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN                   
SEABOARD...THE 00Z NAM IS THE OUTLIER BRINGING SO MUCH PRECIP SO                
FAR WEST NEAR MY FCST AREA. 00Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF SUGGEST LOW TO                
NO POPS IN THE EAST WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. DID                
COMPROMISE A TAD ON THE FAR EASTERN CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY...TO               
BETTER BLEND WITH EASTERN NEIGHBORS...BUT BELIEVE THE CHANCES FOR               
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LOW OVERALL.                                                
THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD STAY IN THE WEST AND NW WHERE PREVIOUSLY                 
MENTIONED OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE EFFECT FORCES MANAGE TO BRING THE                 
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THINK THE SEASON`S FIRST ACCUMULATING               
SNOWS WILL BE SEEN IN THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS...BUT WITH                      
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS AND RELATIVELY SHORT OVER-LAKE WIND                      
FETCHES...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT                   
SIDE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
WE MAY SEE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER LAKE                    
EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER OVER-               
LAKE FETCH AND A POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONNECTION. STILL TOO EARLY TO             
ZERO IN ON WHAT WOULD BE A MESO SCALE FEATURE...JUST SOMETHING TO               
CONSIDER FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.                                                  
BIGGER PATTERN WILL KEEP US COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT                     
SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS MAKE A RETURN LATER                 
IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN WRESTLING WITH LAKE/OROGRAPHIC                          
SHOWERS...PRECIP WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AN EXTREMELY STRONG JET...ALONG WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING                 
ACROSS THE LAKES IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS ALONG FRONT...EVEN                     
THUNDER OVER LAKE ERIE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE REPORTS                    
OF SEVERE TURB TODAY.                                                           
AS WINDS BACK MORE...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO HAVE A HARD TIME                      
CROSSING THE MTS. WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG.                  
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER                        
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.                                           
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY.                                
THE OTHER FCST CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE               
SUSQ VALLEY AHEAD OF FROPA. CLEAR SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING SOME                   
SPOTS TO DECOUPLE...AND LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING NR SATURATION AT                
THE SFC ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 05-09Z. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD                 
OFF FOR NOW WITH MENTION OF FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR                  
THE SITUATION.                                                                  
COLDER AIR AND A BETTER LAKE EFFECT REGIME THROUGH WED WILL FOLLOW              
LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.                 
MVFR CONDS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES /BFD AND JST/ WITH SNOW SHWRS                    
WILL BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING. ACROSS THE RIDGE...              
VALLEY AREA...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.                                             
EAST OF MTNS...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.                                        
THIS ASSUMES THAT THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW DOES NOT COME MUCH                 
FURTHER WEST.                                                                   
HI PRES RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY THURSDAY...BRINGING GOOD                  
FLYING CONDS TO ALL AREAS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS                   
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP TAKES PLACE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...LACORTE                                                             
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...LACORTE                                                             
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN                                                    
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE               
WINDS AT DHT AND GUY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH            
SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.                        
TAB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. VARIABLE WINDS            
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR            
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN           
IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF                
SITES.                                                                          
TAB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES                 
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER            
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT               
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW                
LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO                
TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE              
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION                     
TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND              
LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN            
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST                   
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.                              
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE            
TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA            
AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE                 
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL             
CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...             
WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN            
TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT             
MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE               
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.                   
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING             
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN              
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM            
AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA              
UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A            
FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH             
THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS.                                              
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK              
AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS               
CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO           
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY           
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.                                                               
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/21                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
633 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. VARIABLE WINDS            
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR            
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN           
IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF                
SITES.                                                                          
TAB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES                 
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER            
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT               
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW                
LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO                
TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE              
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION                     
TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND              
LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN            
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST                   
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.                              
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE            
TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA            
AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE                 
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL             
CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...             
WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN            
TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT             
MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE               
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.                   
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING             
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN              
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM            
AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA              
UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A            
FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH             
THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS.                                              
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK              
AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS               
CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO           
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY           
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.                                                               
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/21                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES                 
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER            
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT               
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW                
LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO                
TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE              
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION                     
TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND              
LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN            
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST                   
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.                              
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE            
TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA            
AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE                 
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL             
CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...             
WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN            
TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT             
MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE               
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.                   
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING             
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN              
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM            
AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA              
UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A            
FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH             
THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS.                                              
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK              
AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS               
CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO           
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY           
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.                                                               
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                42  76  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BEAVER OK                  32  73  42  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BOISE CITY OK              41  74  45  81  43 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BORGER TX                  47  76  51  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BOYS RANCH TX              42  78  44  81  43 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CANYON TX                  39  78  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CLARENDON TX               42  75  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   5             
DALHART TX                 39  74  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   5             
GUYMON OK                  36  74  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0   5             
HEREFORD TX                39  77  43  80  42 /   0   0   0   0   5             
LIPSCOMB TX                35  74  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   5             
PAMPA TX                   48  72  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   5             
SHAMROCK TX                38  75  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   5             
WELLINGTON TX              39  75  45  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   5             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
332 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT 3 AM COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A HOUSTON TO SOUTH               
OF SAN ANTONIO TO EAGLE PASS LINE. THE FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT 30              
MPH. AT THIS SPEED THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                
CWA AROUND SUNRISE MOVING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY                  
BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. SAN ANTONIO RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING SHOWERS              
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY                
SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DEEPER MOISTURE.                 
NAM40 AND RUC40 SHOW AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE               
GFS MOST BULLISH ON POPS WHILE THE NAM12 INDICATES POPS BELOW 10                
PERCENT. WILL PAINT 20 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH 30 PERCENT ALONG                
THE RIVER FROM ZAPATA TO BROWNSVILLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WITH               
A POSSIBLE UPDATE BEFORE SHIFT CHANGE IF AREAL COVERAGE INCREASES.              
THE FRONT HAS A MODEST PUNCH TO IT WITH ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWING               
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AT 15                
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH. ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING OFF              
FASTER THEN TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MODERATE                  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT BEST. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MOST OF                
THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE                
A RAPID DROP IN RH VALUES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON               
FROM MID MORNING PEAKS. GFS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD COMPARED TO                  
YESTERDAY/S FORECAST NUMBERS SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL                     
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME RECOVERY LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY               
UP NORTH WITH CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKER. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE                 
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...CLOUDS CLEARING AND COOL SURFACE                      
HIGH...1035MB...SETTLING OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE 5 TO 12                 
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                 
FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY BUT COOL START SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES            
BELOW NORMALS. A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE USED.               
LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD TAPPER OFF AND VEER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE              
DAY. ANOTHER COOL EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CCA CUT OFF AND                
WINDS TURNING EAST LOWS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER.                        
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM MIDWEEK ON SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG              
THE EAST COAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND                
NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BY                   
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE TREND                     
UNDERWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF                       
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER              
MOST ENERGY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A WEAK WIND               
SHIFT INDICATED AND LITTLE...IF ANY...TEMPERATURE DROP. UPPER                   
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE ON             
THE VALLEYS WEATHER THEN THIS FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND             
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF               
THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY. SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A                 
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS              
ACTIVITY TO MOVE QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER THE              
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING                 
WITH ALL AREAS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS GUSTING TO              
AROUND 8 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8              
SECONDS AT 01 CDT/06 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR               
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING THROUGH            
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER               
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MODERATE WINDS               
AND SEAS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...               
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  57  77  58 /  30   0   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          77  54  78  56 /  30   0   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            77  53  78  54 /  30   0   0   0                           
MCALLEN              79  53  79  53 /  30   0   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  52  78  52 /  30   0   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  58  76  62 /  30   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY            
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
59/66                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
247 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN                     
APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR AND CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LAST OF                
THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAX WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST                      
WISCONSIN AROUND 00Z. BY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
VORT MAX SHOULD HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHED TO MAINLY                  
FLURRIES.                                                                       
UPPER TROUGH STARTSA TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW                   
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE SKIES MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO                  
CLEAR TONIGHT. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY                
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS COULD OCCUR JUST                  
BEHIND EXITING VORT.                                                            
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BRING THE                     
COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WILL RAISE MOS TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT...DUE TO               
CLOUDS AND MORE WIND...BUT CUT THEM A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
12Z ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX CONTINUES TO BE VERY SIMILAR THOUGH THE                
SEVEN DAY FORECAST...WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN DISCREPANCIES. MAIN                 
DIFFERENCE IS ON STRENGTH OF DAY SIX SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST                   
CANADA. HOWEVER THIS HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER DAY SEVEN.                
MORE OF A DRY ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.            
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND                             
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY.                                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...BUT                 
LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONTAL                     
PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH             
COLD UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED INSTABILITY                            
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES.  4KM MODELS SHOW THESE DECREASING RAPIDLY                   
BETWEEN 23 AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE                   
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW MINUTES              
AT ANY ONE LOCATION SO NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN TAFS.                            
AFTER DARK INSTABILITY DECREASES...SO CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN AND               
BREAK UP AS WELL.  DURING THE NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST WITH              
RISING HEIGHTS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AFTER            
MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.                                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DEEP                    
NORTHWEST FLOW.  WINDS MAY BE A TAD STRONGER DURING THE DAYLIGHT                
HOURS BUT PERSISTENT MODERATE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE THE RULE.               
WITH FAIRLY SMALL FETCH HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD OPEN                   
WATERS.  SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAKER FLOW FINALLY MOVES OVER LAKE                  
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...02                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
944 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH HIGH                
LEVEL MOISTURE TINKERING WITH THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE CENTRAL                
COAST...WHILE MARINE LAYER STRATUS REMAINS ABSENT OVER THE                      
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE                    
CENTRAL COAST CURRENTLY AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CIRRUS DECK...BUT                
THIS BREAK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT AREA OF CIRRUS IS                  
PUSHING ASHORE. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SOME DOUBTS EXIST IN                
THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPING TONIGHT FROM THE LOOKS OF CURRENT                 
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND                   
KLAX-KDAG SURFACE TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...IT CANNOT BE                  
RULED COMPLETELY OUT. NAM-WRF AND 13 KM RUC SOLUTION INDICATE                   
SOME SORT OF MOISTURE PRESENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT                 
THE BIGHT. THE CURRENT PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW.                   
KSMX-KSBA GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED SURPRISINGLY OUT OF THE NORTH.                  
CURRENT KSBA-KSMX GRADIENTS ARE NEAR -4.1 MB THIS EVENING...BUT                 
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. NAM-WRF 975 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS LOOK               
DECENT AROUND 7 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND               
THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...BUT THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN              
BY 06Z AS NAM-WRF INDICATES. 13 KM RUC ALSO BACKS UP THIS                       
HYPOTHESIS AS WELL.                                                             
GOOD AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO EMERGE FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE                    
WEEK. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START INCREASE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT                 
OR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS MOISTEN. GFS                  
AND NAM-WRF 700-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MIXING RATIOS                    
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. 850 MB MIXING               
RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR                   
ADVECTION FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OR MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE ON                
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS ALSO                  
PRESENT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK PUSHES THE                   
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...THE                  
LOWER LEVELS REALLY START MOISTENING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR              
AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.                  
NEXT SHIFT WILL BRIEFED ON THIS SCENARIO AS GOOD AGREEMENT DOES                 
EXISTS BETWEEN FOR THE NAM-WRF...GFS...AND UKMET FOR THIS SCENARIO              
OCCURRING.                                                                      
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTIVE SIGNATURES EXIST FOR THE WHOLE AREA AT                  
POINTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE                 
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OCCURRING AT 500 MB. A COUPLE                      
INGREDIENTS THAT CANNOT SEEM NOT TO AGREE IS THE 500 MB                         
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN. NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE LACKING SOME                 
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 500 MB RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WITH A WIDE                   
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP                  
AGAIN AS THE STORM SYSTEM WINDOW GETS CLOSER.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2008/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS SOARED TODAY OVER INLAND VTU/L.A.                
COUNTIES...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF                
RAWS AUTOMATED STATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK (BEVERLY HILLS AT              
103 DEGREES WAS THE HOTTEST READING). THE HEAT WAS COMPLIMENTS OF               
CONTINUED OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.                           
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND             
SHOULD MAKE A QUICK RETURN INLAND OVER THIS AREA EARLY IN THE                   
EVENING. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CLOUDS WERE LARGELY ABSENT THIS            
AFTERNOON...BUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND              
MOVE TO THE L.A./VTU COAST PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TO THE SBA S             
COAST BY SUNRISE. GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION PERSISTING GENERALLY AT            
500 TO 800 FT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH ANY              
OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.                                                      
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH WED...WITH              
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN CA. A                
LARGE E PAC UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND SRN CA WED NIGHT               
AND THU. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED             
MORNING...THEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART               
WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT THRU THU. IT               
LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW THRU WED THEN            
INCREASE SOME WED NIGHT INTO THU. VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND                  
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO            
THU. WITH THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING THU...IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF              
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CA. ALTHO                 
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE REGION ON                
WED...HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.                 
TEMPS WILL TURN EVEN COOLER FOR THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR              
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.                                 
THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER THE E PAC THRU FRI. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL                 
COAST THU EVENING THEN MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES LATER THU NIGHT               
INTO FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT                
ALONG WITH A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE            
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES BUT IT                
SHOULD STILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THU            
NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON. AT              
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIG RAIN                     
PRODUCER...BUT PERHAPS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH COULD FALL IN NW SLO            
COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER S. VTU/LAX COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED             
TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE PERIOD. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR            
FRI WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.                         
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT THAT FAR APART IN                 
TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER              
THE E PAC WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROF NEAR              
130 W BY 12Z SAT THEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA             
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL DEVELOP OUT             
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY SAT MORNING FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...THEN A               
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF             
RAIN SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO             
SPREAD S INTO VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE               
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM              
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. THE            
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS BY LATE SUN MORNING WITH             
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SUN AFTERNOON. AT                
THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE                
WEEKEND...BUT SLO/SBA COUNTIES SHOULD GET THE BULK OF THE RAIN WHICH            
COULD BE OVER HALF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE            
UPPER TROF TO MOVE E BY MON WITH A BROAD DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE             
DISTRICT...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LINGER THRU WED. TEMPS ARE                    
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU              
MON THEN MAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS BY WED.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...28/2358Z.                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE                  
PERIOD. AT KSMX AND KSBP...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE             
FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A                 
SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THAT             
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ONSET             
AT KSMX EARLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z...BUT KSBP MAY ONLY SEE IFR                   
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT                         
CONCEPTION...AN ABSENT MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS                
AFTERNOON COULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OUT OF COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL            
AFTER 08Z...OR AS LATE AS 13Z. FORECAST INDICATES A CHANCE OF MARINE            
LAYER FOR NOW.                                                                  
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT 08Z                        
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LATE AS 11Z AT KLAX.               
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP                 
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER 16Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                
REDEVELOP.                                                                      
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).                                               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HALL/SIRARD                                                                     
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES                                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
417 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES...                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO            
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE MOVING                
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM.                                                    
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL               
ADVERTISED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING                
CONTINUES ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO                    
INDICATE NOT MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AND WILL            
ONLY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN                 
REACHES OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LEE TROUGH PROGGED             
TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG WITH              
INCREASING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND BREEZY                 
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH H7 TEMPS                 
PROGGED BETWEEN 8-10C ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD YIELD                
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY READINGS. LEE                  
TROUGH KICKS OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM                  
CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE                
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT                
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...SAVE PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSIONS ARE                 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. -MW                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
VARIOUS DEGREES OF UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CWFA FROM                
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY                 
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.              
SOME CHANGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA FROM                   
LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER                 
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AT 00Z MONDAY IMPACTS THE REGION FROM                 
LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                                      
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS              
SYSTEM SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL                 
MOUNTAINS AND POINTS NORTH FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHER                
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY                          
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL               
AS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN                     
ACCUSTOMED TO DURING THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS.                                 
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY NEXT                
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY                  
SOME 20 PLUS DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS THURSDAYS THROUGH                 
SATURDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...EVEN COOLER                       
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH IS              
JUST OUTSIDE OF MY EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW. SO IN A NUTSHELL...IF ONE          
PREFERS WARM TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE/DRY CONDITIONS AND               
GENERALLY LOW-GRADE WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THURSDAY THROUGH               
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY SHOULD FIT THIS SCENARIO.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW            
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MINOR UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. -MW                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW                
CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT            
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI             
WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS                
ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB                    
MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE            
UPPER MI.                                                                       
RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO                    
ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR               
IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES                  
MAINLY CLEAR.                                                                   
TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS               
FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF            
THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME                        
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE             
MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK            
REASONABLE.                                                                     
TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO               
THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF  MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH.                 
TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND               
BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER              
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE.                                         
THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH               
925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER             
THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE.                                 
FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                
COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN                
ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND               
900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO            
LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK              
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN            
CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO              
THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL               
AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH LK MOISTENING ENHANCED BY FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON...EXPECT MVFR                
CIGS TO POSSIBLY DVLP THIS MRNG AT CMX...BUT MORE LIKELY AT SAW AS              
COLD NLY FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA INVADES THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER                   
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN. VFR CIG THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF AT             
ERY UNDER THE SAME LAKE EFFECT REGIME IS SOMEWHAT WORRISOME...BUT               
WILL BET ON THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS WL               
GUST ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH GREATER EXPOSURE TO DVLPG NNE WIND. WITH            
APRCH OF DRY RDG OVER MN THIS AFTN...EXPECT ANY MVFR CIGS TO RISE TO            
VFR ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE               
EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30             
KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE              
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK             
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO               
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI            
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA                
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING            
SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB                                                       
AVIATION...KC/AJ                                                                
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1026 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                              
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO THE              
HOURLY GRIDS. SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.                   
MILDER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.                                        
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP DISPLAYS 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER LA/MS AND             
RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/MN. VERY STRONG 981 MB LOW PRESSURE                 
WAS OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC NW OF SAGUENAY OVER LAC SAINT-JEAN LAKE                 
WHICH IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SUNNY SKIES                  
PREVAILED ACROSS IL THIS MORNING. AFTER DAWN LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S              
AND LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE                   
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH WNW WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ALOFT A VERY                    
STRONG 517 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A LARGE                   
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WHILE A 588 DM 500 MB              
HIGH WAS OVER AZ AND RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IL                   
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                                     
SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE THE NAM...RUC AND SREF MODELS ARE SIMILAR               
IN DRIFTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY EAST OVER IL BY SUNSET.                  
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY THROUGHOUT AND WILL ENSURE SUNNY SKIES             
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PRESSURE              
GRADIENT THIS MORNING SUPPORTING NW WINDS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 MPH.              
THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN              
WHICH ALLOWS NW WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP LATER IN THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS              
RISE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6C BY SUNSET WITH COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE               
EAST CENTRAL IL/IN BORDER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S              
WITH MILDEST READINGS IN THE WEST AND SW WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES              
WARMER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS              
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF LINCOLN AND LOWER 60S FROM LINCOLN                    
SOUTH.                                                                          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                               
HIGH PRES RDG FM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE EWD                 
ACROSS IL TNGT AND BE LOCATED MI-GA BY 12Z THU. WLY/NWLY SFC WNDS               
AROUND 10 KT AFT 15Z TDY WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL BY 00Z THU. A DRY                 
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CLDS THRU THIS TAF PD.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 220 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                               
FEW FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED             
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF WARMER                   
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH            
CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTH ALONG EAST EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER               
THE PLAINS. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE                 
EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.                                         
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN              
YESTERDAY...WITH MOS GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR HIGHS. DID TREND A             
BIT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE              
WESTERN CWA.                                                                    
WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY MIDDAY               
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS               
THE CWA SATURDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK             
WITH...SO COOLER WEEKEND WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY                        
CONSEQUENCE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
NEWEST EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL              
RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE CWA               
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTHEAST               
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...WITH MORE                  
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS DUE             
TO THE GFS MODELS PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF             
OF MEXICO...A FEATURE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN ECMWF INDICATES.                 
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE SHOWING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT FROM              
THE PLAINS. SINCE THESE ISSUES ARE BEYOND THE EDITABLE FORECAST                 
PERIOD...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT...WITH RETURNS             
THAT ONLY SIGNIFY FLURRIES AT BEST. 10Z AND 11Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                
FROM SAW SHOW WHY...WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB...SATURATION AT THAT             
LEVEL...THEN DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINT                
DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5C. HARD TO SEE LAKE EFFECT REDEVELOPING SINCE THE             
AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO IS SO DRY WITH               
RESPECT TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURE...RESULTING IN SOMETHING SIMILAR TO             
AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILE. TAKING THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND                
SUBTRACTING THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING ACROSS RESULTS IN A SPREAD AROUND             
25 DEGREES F. ALSO NOT HELPING LAKE EFFECT IS LOWERING INVERSIONS               
BEHIND THE SHRTWV THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.                     
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES            
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAY STILL TAKE AWHILE TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH...             
AND GOING FORECAST HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW                
CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT            
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI             
WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS                
ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB                    
MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE            
UPPER MI. RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR             
NO ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR            
IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES                  
MAINLY CLEAR.                                                                   
TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS               
FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF            
THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME                        
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE             
MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK            
REASONABLE.                                                                     
TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO               
THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF  MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH.                 
TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND               
BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER              
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE.                                         
THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH               
925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER             
THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE.                                 
FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                
COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN                
ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND               
900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO            
LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK              
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN            
CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO              
THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL               
AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHERLY WINDS             
IS AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES. CIGS RANGE FROM              
VFR TO MVFR...BUT WILL CLIMB BY MID AFTERNOON TO VFR DUE TO DAYTIME             
MIXING AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR IS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN MINNESOTA...WHICH SHOULD               
CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL                   
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE                 
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND THAT IS LLWS DEVELOPING AS THE TAF SITES               
GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE               
EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30             
KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE              
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK             
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO               
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI            
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA                
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING            
SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER               
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER. A WEAK COLD              
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT P/GRAD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH                
3/HR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST                   
STATES. WINDS ARE REMAINING W/LY IN STRONG LEE SIDE TROF AND                    
AFTERNOON GUST STILL LOOK GOOD...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS                    
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BASED 12Z H85 WIND FIELDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK                 
RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT BUMPED UP A DEGREE BASED ON LATEST VALUES AND              
GOOD HANDLING BY THE RUC13. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE OR              
TWO AS WELL WITH BUFKIT HYDROLAPSES INDICATING A SLOWLY MOISTENING BL           
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NGT...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THIS                
MORNING/S LOWS. I DON/T THINK A FREEZE WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE                 
NECESSARY...HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE                   
FREEZING MARK IN SPOTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY.              
SO IT LUKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SHUT OFF ALL THE PIEDMONT EXCEPT             
THE UPR SAVANNAH VALLEY (AT THIS TIME). THIS MEANS REGARDLESS OF MIN            
TEMPS THESE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...NO MORE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE             
NEEDED FOR THE SEASON IN THOSE COUNTIES. EVEN IF THE UPR SAVANNAH               
VLY DOES NOT REACH FREEZING THIS MORNING...TEMPS DO NOT LUK TO REACH            
FREEZING TONIGHT (SO NO FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED). DEWPTS AND                
WNDS MAY SUPPORT FROST HOWEVER..SO A FROST ADVY MAY BE NEED TO BE               
ISSUED BY THE DAYSHIFT IF THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY DOES NOT FREEZE.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE E COAST THU AND               
CONTINUES MOVG E WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WEAK H5                 
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI WITH SF HIGH BASICALLY OVERHEAD. LOOK            
LIKE LIGHT WINDS AND MCLR SKIES BOTH DAYS SO THE SHORT TERM IS                  
MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST. AS THICKNESS INCREASES TEMPS WARM EACH DAY.             
LOOK FOR HIGHS THU RANGING FROM THE L-M60S IN NE GA/UPSTATE SC TO               
AROUND 60 IN THE NC NW PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH 50S AT HIGHER            
ELEVATIONS. TREND CONTINUES FRI WITH M-U60S SW CWA...M60S N...AND               
U50S-M60S MTNS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH                       
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THE COMMON THREAD                 
KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SAT WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE AVG...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N.                
MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES S THROUGH THE AREA OR             
NOT BUT IN ANY CASE...HEIGHTS FALL SUN AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES E AND               
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEG COOLER...DRY FROPA OR NOT.                
STAYED WITH HPC DRY FCST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN                
FROM THE NE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY              
BELOW AVG TEMPS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS OUR TERMINALS...AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR THRU              
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE IS                
WINDS. WINDS CONT TO BE GUSTY AT KAVL...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO               
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...AS BL TRIES TO STABILIZE. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WLY             
WINDS WILL CONT THRU THE PERIOD...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (NOT            
QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY) BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. WINDS                  
EVERYWHERE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.                                       
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT                
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY VFR WEATHER.                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK                                                             
SHORT TERM...RB                                                                 
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...ARK/SBK                                                              
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
112 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT...WITH RETURNS             
THAT ONLY SIGNIFY FLURRIES AT BEST. 10Z AND 11Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                
FROM SAW SHOW WHY...WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB...SATURATION AT THAT             
LEVEL...THEN DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINT                
DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5C. HARD TO SEE LAKE EFFECT REDEVELOPING SINCE THE             
AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO IS SO DRY WITH               
RESPECT TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURE...RESULTING IN SOMETHING SIMILAR TO             
AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILE. TAKING THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND                
SUBTRACTING THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING ACROSS RESULTS IN A SPREAD AROUND             
25 DEGREES F. ALSO NOT HELPING LAKE EFFECT IS LOWERING INVERSIONS               
BEHIND THE SHRTWV THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.                     
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES            
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAY STILL TAKE AWHILE TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH...             
AND GOING FORECAST HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW                
CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT            
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI             
WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS                
ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB                    
MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE            
UPPER MI. RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR             
NO ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR            
IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES                  
MAINLY CLEAR.                                                                   
TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS               
FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF            
THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME                        
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE             
MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK            
REASONABLE.                                                                     
TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO               
THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF  MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH.                 
TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND               
BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER              
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE.                                         
THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH               
925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS                 
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER             
THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE.                                 
FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                
COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN                
ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND               
900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO            
LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK              
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN            
CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO              
THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL               
AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCT VFR CLOUDS WITH LK EFFECT AT SAW INITIALLY...BUT DRIER AIR                  
WORKING IN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW             
THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE AFTN. ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE THROUGH               
THU MORNING WILL BE A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS BOTH                 
SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HR WILL            
BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS RIDGE PUSHES TO THE            
EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LLWS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING THU               
BEFORE INVERSION MIXES OUT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS REACH THE SFC.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE               
EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30             
KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE              
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK             
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO               
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI            
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA                
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING            
SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB                                                       
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
246 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST MSAS SHOWS SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN            
WI ZONES. DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH AREA            
UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LVL RIDGE. AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LIFT...AND LOWER COND PRESS DEFICITS...HAS                 
MOVED EAST OF ARROWHEAD. LATEST RUC13 AND 88D VWP SHOW RETURN FLOW              
HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER NE MN ZONES.                                             
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS INCREASING SFC PRESS                
GRADIENT OVER CWA AND EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.INTENSIFYING              
LOW OVER NRN SASK/MB MOVES EAST AND LLJ INCREASES TO 45/50KT AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. IN RESPONSE WOULD EXPECT MINS TO OCCUR AROUND 9PM TO                  
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN CWA BEFORE SLOW RISE OCCURS.                              
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS STEADY TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY AND MILD DAY            
TOMORROW AS MIXING LAYER INCREASES INTO HIGHER WINDS AT 3/4K DURING             
THE DAY.                                                                        
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SFC BDRY WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY               
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND WINDSHIFT THE MAIN EFFECT             
WILL BE A PRONOUNCED COOLING WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES               
LOWER THAN THURSDAY. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF REGION BY EARLY                
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                   
SHORTWAVE WITHING MID LVL FLOW ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN PW SHOULD            
PROMOTE MORE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HOWEVER FCST REMAINS DRY WITH               
INSUFFICIENT FORCING/MSTR.LATEST MSAS SHOWS SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING           
FROM ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WI ZONES. DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS OCCURRED               
ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LVL RIDGE.                
AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LIFT...AND LOWER COND               
PRESS DEFICITS...HAS MOVED EAST OF ARROWHEAD. LATEST RUC13 AND 88D              
VWP SHOW RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER NE MN ZONES.                        
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                     
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO ERODE BY EARLY SATURDAY               
NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 300K                      
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST THE              
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY 06Z SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN             
THIRD OF OUR CWA...BEFORE SPREADING ELSEWHERE BY 12Z. KEPT POPS IN              
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SOMEWHAT             
LIMITED AND PERSISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRY              
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY                     
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS DEEPER                  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY                
INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC CYCLONE MAY BECOME COUPLED WITH THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW...ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES                    
VERTICALLY STACKED. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WOULD            
LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS EARLIER RUNS WERE A            
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR FLYING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH                        
JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER             
THE UPPER MIDWEST...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A            
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...RETURN FLOW AND            
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING              
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN                 
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS...A RATHER POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP                
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS AT             
ALL TAF SITES AVERAGING AROUND 40KTS.                                           
***NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING            
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL CHANGE.             
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS USING A VALID             
DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES                
WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT.               
THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE 30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE            
DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL              
BE 32 MAJOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAF FORECASTS WILL            
BE VALID FOR 30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE              
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (CIAO). THE 5 TAF                     
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW                  
FORMAT...PLEASE VISIT: WWW.AVIATIONS.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  34  58  36  51 /   0   0  10  10                                           
INL  33  56  33  46 /   0   0  10  10                                           
BRD  34  64  36  53 /   0   0  10  10                                           
HYR  28  62  39  53 /   0   0  10  10                                           
ASX  31  60  41  53 /   0   0  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/BETTWY                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
434 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT...                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT THE SIGNIFICANT                       
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WILL              
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC AND AWAY FROM                     
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWER               
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE             
ENDING LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING FAIR AND DRY                
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING FROM                  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL               
BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...                                                   
DEEP SFC LOW HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC                
WITH PREVAILING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFTING FROM WLY TO              
NWLY AT 20Z. CLASSIC WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWER PATTERN WITH 1000-500MB             
RH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE                   
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. BASED ON 19Z RUC...THERE IS AN                  
EMBEDDED 500MB JET MAX OF 50 KTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH            
00Z AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MODEST MID-LVL ASCENT THROUGH 00Z.                
THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE PREVAILING MOIST            
NWLY FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING CONFINED TO THE MTNS. SNOW SHOWERS                
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY                  
OVERNIGHT. OWING TO STRENGTH OF WLY FLOW...MOST OF THE OROGRAPHIC               
ACTIVITY IN VERMONT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREEN MTN            
SPINE...WITH KMVL AND KMPV REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU MUCH OF THE                
DAY. LATEST REPORTS INDICATE 6-8 INCHES NEAR JAY PEAK AND HAVE LEFT             
IN PLACE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL VERMONT /ERN             
FRANKLIN AND ORLEANS COUNTIES/ THROUGH 30/04Z...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL                 
DIFFICULTIES ARE PROBABLY LIMITED TO THE MTN PASSES AND NEARBY AREAS            
BASED ON LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND                  
GROUND TRUTH REPORTS.  THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS             
N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. RECEIVED A REPORT OF 5.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL              
IN STANNARD...AND SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT FORESEE                 
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AWAY FROM THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.              
GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MODERATELY STG WITH WLY SFC WINDS 10-15                   
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH             
CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A MINIMAL                     
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F AT KBTV             
TO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND VT EAST OF THE                
GREEN MTNS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                     
AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...                                                   
A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY AND                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA DURING             
THE MORNING HRS...AND HAVE FCST JUST LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS                  
N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE            
FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HGTS               
AND LOWERING DEEP-LAYER RH FIELDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE 1-2KFT ELEVATION                
BAND TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE/CT RIVER                  
VALLEYS. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. A            
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT QPF IS EXPECTED TO              
BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN IN               
THE VLYS INITIALLY...BUT SHOWERS MAY END BRIEFLY AS LIGHT SNOW                  
FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW             
10-15 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA AFTER 01/04Z.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...                                                   
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON                       
SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE AREA. A                  
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...JUST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL                  
BORDER...SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW                 
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD ON                    
SUNDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY                
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST                   
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL                 
CANADA WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN ON               
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO               
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE                          
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND                      
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH               
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. HOWEVER...IN THE LOWS WAKE THE                     
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION                   
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS                
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN                 
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR                  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE                 
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD               
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS                      
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. ANOTHER               
HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST                  
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.               
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING               
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL                     
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS                   
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL                          
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF                     
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE                 
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR                        
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.                   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAF FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR                
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE                           
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF                     
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN                         
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE                       
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE                
LISTED BELOW.                                                                   
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)                       
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ004-             
     006>008-017-018.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-016.            
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS                                                              
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...BANACOS                                                            
LONG TERM...NEILES                                                              
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES                                                           
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
442 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLR SKIES WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LVLS AT THE START OF TNGT WILL GIVE               
WAY TO A MODEST INCRS IN MID AND HI LVL MOISTR FROM THE W MAINLY                
OVER SRN PART OF FCST AREA LATE TNGT. THAT SHUD BE THE MAIN EFFECT              
OF APPCHG MID LVL SHRTWV WHICH WILL HAVE REALLY NOTHNG TO WORK WITH             
BLO THE HIR MID LVLS. WITH ALSO MODEST SRLY LO LVL FLOW CONTG TO                
DVLP WITH THE WARMING...LO TEMPS TNGT WILL BE QUITE A BIT MILDER                
THAN LAST NGTS LOWS...FROM A FEW DEGS TO 10 PLUS DEGS ABV FRZG. WNDS            
SHUD WIND UP 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE NGT ESPLY LATE...MAYBE                
EVEN A LTL HIR LATE IN THE EXPOSED BUFFALO RDG AREA.                            
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. WEAK S/W WL MOVE            
FM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU THU AFTN. ONLY HIGH               
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOD WITH THIS FEATURE SO WL ONLY SEEM SOME HIGH                
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THIS CUD KEEP TEMPS            
FM MIXING COMPLETELY OUT FAR S...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NR 70 ACRS             
CWA. S/W WL BRING WEAK BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO CWA ON FRI....BUT WITH               
PLENTY OF SUN AND BULK OF COOLER AIR REMAINING N AND E OF CWA...HIGH            
TEMPS ON FRI WL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.                                       
WEAK S/W WAVE WL FLATTEN RIDGE ON SAT AND ALSO  BRING QUITE A BIT               
MORE CIRRUS INTO CWA BY AFTN. THIS WL LIKELY PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS ON            
SAT AND WL KEEP SAT THE COOLEST DAY THU THRU SUN. S/W IS FAIRLY WEAK            
AND DID CONSIDER PULLING POPS OUT ACRS NERN CWA SAT NITE BUT CUD                
STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES. WL LOWER POPS TO ONLY 20% FAR NE. SUN WL             
AGAIN SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH RIDGE AXIS REACHING I29 BY SUN EVE.             
THIS WL KEEP CWA WARM...WITH WARMERST TEMPS W. OF COURSE HIGHS WL BE            
BASED ON HOW MUCH CI SPREADS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES AND THIS WL              
BE THE SAME PBLM ON MON. STILL...EVEN WITH CI...TEMPS WL BE WELL                
ABOVE NORM WITH LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASING SUN INTO MON.                     
MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR TUES WITH EC AND CANADIAN FURTHER N              
AND FASTER WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO ND TUES NITE WHILE GFS              
HAS IT OVR NEB AT THE SAME TIME. IF GFS IS RIGHT THEN CUD ONCE AGAIN            
SEE WDSPRD RAIN ACRS CWA. IF EC OR CANADIAN IS RIGHT...THEN BULK OF             
RAIN WUD BE N OF CWA. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY WL KEEP POPS GOING MON                
NITE INTO TUES AND LATER FCSTS WL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON               
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE EARLY NEXT. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS CAN BE               
EXPECTED TUES AND WED.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR THRU 31/00Z AS DRY AIR AT ALL LVLS IS REPLACED BY A LTL MOISTR              
ONLY ABV 10K FT OR SO WHILE THE LWR LVLS STAY DRY. OUTSIDE THREAT               
FOR SOME LLWS AT FSD AND SUX AFTER ABOUT 6Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC               
ARE INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 120 FEET AGL WHILE SFC WINDS SHOULD            
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/WILLIAMS                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
328 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW TO PARTS OF              
THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. CURRENT RUC             
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN              
ROCKIES WITH BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH                 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA...                    
RELATIVELY MINOR TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE ENTIRE                  
FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION              
AHEAD OF RIDGE HAS LEAD TO TEMPS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 70S. GIVEN             
THE HIGHER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE                  
WARMER WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40S.                                
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH A SFC               
TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MODEL             
CONSENSUS IS THIS TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NIL              
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES EWD AND A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE PANHANDLES             
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MINOR COOL DOWN             
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF           
ANY CLOUD COVER AND GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH                
COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR THE TRICK OR              
TREATERS.                                                                       
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF THIS             
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS AND 110 KT               
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS                
WILL PICK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE 70S. MEDIUM            
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF             
SUGGESTING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING              
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES          
...LEFT GOING FORECAST DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE A MILD START TO              
NOVEMBER...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS TOWARD                
MIDWEEK.                                                                        
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF              
THE WEEK GIVEN LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS. WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY AND                    
MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE PACIFIC                      
NORTHWEST. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THEN AS SOME AREAS MAY              
SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT.                 
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                47  80  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BEAVER OK                  43  78  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BOISE CITY OK              44  79  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BORGER TX                  52  80  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BOYS RANCH TX              44  82  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0             
CANYON TX                  45  82  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0             
CLARENDON TX               48  80  50  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   5             
DALHART TX                 38  80  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0             
GUYMON OK                  42  79  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0             
HEREFORD TX                45  82  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0             
LIPSCOMB TX                44  79  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   5             
PAMPA TX                   51  77  53  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   5             
SHAMROCK TX                43  79  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   5             
WELLINGTON TX              44  81  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   5             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/05                                                                           
</pre> tx