AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
215 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AT THE             
SURFACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS TO             
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND                 
THURSDAY...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK                
OFFSHORE WINDS. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE DRY BUT WITH COOLER                      
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP               
THIS WEEKEND AND AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH               
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...           
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO                   
COUNTIES...                                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
NO CHANGE FROM MORNING FORECAST REASONING...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                 
REBUILDING ALONG WEST COAST TODAY WILL SHIFT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND            
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY. THE RUC13 MODEL 1 HOUR FORECAST VALID             
AT 08/2200 UTC SHOWS A NORTHERLY JET STREAM OF +130 KT DROPPING DOWN            
THROUGH NEVADA WITH JET LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
INCREASING TO +75KTS BY 09/0300 UTC. MESONET OBSERVATIONS OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS STILL SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH             
GUSTS 40 MPH. MODELS FORECAST THESE WINDS TO VEER TO NORTH TO                   
NORTHEAST TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE. THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IS STILL ABOUT 6 MILLIBARS ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST                    
CALIFORNIA BUT TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS             
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO -16 MILLIBARS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA              
COAST TO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THESE FACTORS             
PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT.             
HOWEVER THE DEEP MARINE LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE...SEE AVIATION                 
DISCUSSION BELOW...WILL RETARD THE ONSET OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING            
THE INLAND EMPIRE VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL MID TUESDAY MORNING...ORANGE              
COUNTY COAST/SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND SAN            
DIEGO COUNTY COAST PERHAPS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. AM FORECASTING            
WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH IN SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS BY 4 AM TUESDAY                   
MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH THERE...AND GUSTS TO 55              
MPH FOR SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS BY 1 AM TUESDAY...SO WIND ADVISORY             
THERE. THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS/INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND             
ADVISORIES TOO BUT GUSTS OVER 45 MPH NOT EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED                
UNTIL AFTER 1000 AM TUESDAY...WHICH IS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS SO             
WILL DEFER ACTION ON THIS TO THE EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFT. NEAR THE               
COAST...INCLUDING SAN DIEGO COUNTY PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE             
LIKELY BY TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES             
UPWARD IN WIND PRONE AREAS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD            
BE MUCH WARMER...10 TO 15 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE                    
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...AND DRY AIR MASS ALLOWS             
MORE SOLAR RADIATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. FOR THURSDAY SLIGHTLY                
WARMER AGAIN BUT LESS WIND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENED ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS               
STORM TRACK LOWERS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SETTLES OVER THE             
REGION BY SATURDAY. BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF MODELS FIRST              
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. FOLLOWING            
THIS PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORT WAVES COME ACROSS THE AREA SPACED             
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS APART. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND POPS BUT              
LEFT SNOW LEVELS AS INHERITED AS COLDEST AIR/500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING             
BELOW 5460 METERS NOT FORECAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
081945Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER                
DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 4500 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH               
TONIGHT BUT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY                   
TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW. MULTIPLE             
LAYERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU WITH BASES RANGING BETWEEN                
2000 AND 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOUNTAINS               
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AT TIMES. RAPID CLEARING IS               
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE              
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.                        
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED                   
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                     
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY               
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND            
DOWN DRAFTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF KONT.             
HORTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HAVE DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE UPCOMING MODERATE                 
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AS PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE MARINE AIR IS              
COMPLETELY SCOURED...SO DURATIONS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY UNLIKELY TO BE MET. ALSO THE GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCH                   
WETTING RAINS RECEIVED THANKSGIVING WEEK AND THE RECENT GREEN UP                
SHOULD PREVENT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FROM OCCURRING. INSTEAD WILL               
CARRY HEADLINES IN APPROPRIATE ZONES FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.              
&&                                                                              
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO             
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS.                                                          
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.                                         
PZ...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON                                                        
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO                                          
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
330 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BAROMETRICALLY DRIVEN                 
CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS HAVE            
CONTINUED TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF             
BOULDER. HAVE SEEN ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE CROSS MTN PRESSURE             
GRADIENT SINCE 07Z. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE            
OF A WELL DVLPD LEE SIDE MTN WAVE...NOW MARKED BY A GROWING ACSL                
CLOUD...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A                  
CONTINUATION OF THESE GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS PRETTY MUCH             
IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. BY LATE MORNING...MODELS SHOW             
THE CROSS MTN P.G. WEAKENING AND THE AMPLITUDE THE MTN WAVE                     
DECREASING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE TAKING WITH IT A               
PRETTY THICK WAVE CLOUD. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ALONG THE                
FRONT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM             
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE DENVER            
AREA AND COLDEST TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH            
PLATTE...CENTERED ALONG A GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN AXIS. COULD SEE AS             
MUCH AS A 25 DEG F DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO LOCALES.             
PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTED A SIMILAR ARRANGEMENT. IN THE HIGH                   
COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AS POCKETS OF MID-                
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ALONG BY 45-60KT KT WLY FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER               
THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW -SHSN UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                
BUT LITTLE IF ANY NEW ACCUMULATION AS MTN TOP STATIC STABILITY ONLY             
INCREASES THRU THE DAY.                                                         
BY TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING            
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOW TRACKING EWRD             
ACROSS ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REACH SWRN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH               
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL HAVE                      
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN TO THE HIGH MTN ZONES LATE                    
TONIGHT. ON THE PLAINS...THINGS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE              
NAM SHOWS A SHALLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH THE ONSET OF WEAK                    
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS            
OF STRATUS AND PSBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER            
TOWARDS DAWN.                                                                   
.LONG TERM....THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS GENERALLY ON TRACK TO EFFECT             
BOU CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION              
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES              
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH EVEN THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT FASTER            
AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION. INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE EXPECTED            
MIDDAY MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE             
LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIP WILL BE             
DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF TIME OF RAIN/SNOW            
MIX DURING THE AFTN BEFORE THE BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN.                
SECONDARY SURGE WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AS SFC              
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE DEEPENS MON EVENING TO             
AROUND 600MB WITH MODEST ASCENT FROM VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. BEST             
ASCENT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA.                               
SO AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE...WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE POPS                 
UPWARDS INTO HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN AS THE                
TIMING AS QUICKENED A BIT SINCE EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUAL ADVISORY                 
HILITES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE MAIN AREA OF                   
CONCERN WILL HAVE TO WATCH WILL BE THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE                     
FOOTHILLS AND ADJ PALMER DIVIDE. LOCAL SNOW MODEL YIELDED ADVISORY              
TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS. NO HILITES AT THIS TIME.                   
THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK AND THRU NEXT                
WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY            
HANDLED IN THE GRIDS SO NO CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS.                          
$$                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT                 
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS                
THIS MORNING COULD REACH DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM TIME TO              
TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING LATER TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE EVENING EXPECTED TO                 
REVERSE TO A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ARRIVAL OF A WEAK                  
FRONTAL SURGE AROUND 09Z/MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD WITH THIS               
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
BAKER/ENTREKIN                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
803 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MYCALL AND                  
SALMON AREA AT THE MOMENT. A BIT OF CONVECTION OBSERVED WITH SOME               
SOLID PRECIPITATION READINGS MAINLY ON THE EAST OREGON AND WEST                 
IDAHO SIDE WHERE TROP HEIGHTS FALLING SHARPLY. MUCH OF THAT ENERGY              
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NEVADA WITH 150-160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET                     
DROPPING SOUTH. MADE SOME UPDATES MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF                    
CUSTER COUNTY TO RAISE POPS AND BOOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR                 
THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THINK 2 OR 3 INCHES               
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUNDS GOOD. RAISED POPS IN THE CHALLIS AREA               
AS WELL WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST THE VALLEY THERE SHOULD                   
FAVOR PRECIPITATION. WINDS HAVE EASED OFF SOME THE PAST COUPLE OF               
HOURS BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS THE                  
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE RUC13 AND NAM12                  
BOTH AGREE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND              
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS 900                       
AM...BREEZY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. RS                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER             
TROF MOVING INTO THE WA COAST THIS AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO            
ID BY MON MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS             
LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS            
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MTNS...BUT STILL NOT MORE THAN A FEW INCHES             
OF SNOW AT BEST. THE VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE MINIMAL AMOUNTS FROM            
THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS              
ON MONDAY...AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL               
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S            
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AS THE                
COLD FRONT PASSES.                                                              
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE W COAST ON TUE...BUT LOSES                
AMPLITUDE TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PAC MSTR TO FLOW INTO THE PAC              
NW. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT AND                   
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TOWARD WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU WED NIGHT.               
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH NONE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HEDGES               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN US                
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT            
OF ALASKA.  CURRENT MODELERS LIKE THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH                
SHOWS A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY              
INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN US.  DO TO LOCATION OF WHERE THIS ENERGY GETS STARTED...MUCH            
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH MANY             
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW ZERO READINGS.  WE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR                
GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WINTER WEATHER                   
CONDITIONS. VLP                                                                 
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. CLOUDS INCREASE OVER MUCH OF                   
EASTERN IDAHO BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF             
CANADA INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING.  A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR FOR A            
FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW. VLP                        
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1154 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1033 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                               
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUBLESOME PRECIP IS                
FINALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE                       
TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY UP AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND              
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY INVOF THE                  
WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST                     
INCLUDE ONE FOR MORNING WORDING AND TO ELIMINATE THE FREEZING PRECIP MENTION.   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1149 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                               
VERY FEW RADAR ECHOS AT ALL THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP HAS SLOWLY               
COME TO AN END. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND                   
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                
CIGS ABOVE 12KFT. LATER THIS EVENING COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT               
OF SHOWERS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN                  
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO KEEP IT VC UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. BEYOND                 
THAT...RAIN PREDOMINANT WITH DROPPING CIGS. BY                                  
MORNING...VISIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
GETS TRAPPED BY BLANKET OF LOWERING CLOUDS. FOR NOW...HAVE WRITTEN              
FOR TRENDS...BUT DID DROP CIGS TO LIFR...KEEPING VSBYS UP JUST                  
BARELY. BUT IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...COULD SEE THE VSBYS DROP TO                
LIFR AS WELL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                                        
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 325 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                
00Z GFS AND SREF MODELS ARE HANDLING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                  
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND WILL FOLLOW THIS MODEL                
WITH HANDLING THIS LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT SHIFTS NE OF                  
CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY. RUC AND NAM KEPT IT DRY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL                
BUT GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF              
A SPRINGFIEND TO MATTOON TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. MODELS THEN SHOW                
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF IA/WI TONIGHT AND TUE AS LOW                    
PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES. MOSTLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FOR THIS EVENT. FORECAST                  
CHALLENGE IS WHEN RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND                
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.                                                            
09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SE                
CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO INTO              
CENTRAL IL. A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
MO TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET              
AND LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL MO AROUND ST LOUIS                    
EASTWARD INTO SE IL. ALSO PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET                
AND LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS QUINCY TO TAYLORVILLE AND                        
EFFINGHAM. THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED AS FAR NE AS JACKSONVILLE                 
AND SPRINGFIELD TO FLORA.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                     
JUST ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING UNTIL 10 AM               
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72. AS FAR NORTH AS CHRISTIAN...SHELBY...                  
MOULTRIE...COLES AND EDGAR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL                  
TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH/END LATE THIS MORNING AS SMALL                  
SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND EXITS ENE OF SE IL. REST OF DAY THEN LOOKS               
DRY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL. JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT                
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NW OF I-55.                                                 
560 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA WILL MOVE TOWARD                
NM/NW TX BY SUNSET WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.             
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY SW OF                
IL TODAY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE OF I-74 TO THE                   
UPPER 40S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. LOWS TONIGHT STAY               
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 35 TO 40F. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE INTO                      
CENTRAL MO BY DAWN TUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NE                
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TUE AS                 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL IL BY NOON TUE AND NORTHERN                     
INDIANA BY SUNSET TUE WHILE NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN MID MS VALLEY.                  
COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE                 
MORNING. SPC HAS GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-72 TUE. SHOULD              
HAVE DECENT RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                    
VALUES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD                  
INTO CENTRAL/SE IL AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND JET DYNAMICS.                     
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON NW OF              
I-55 AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 0C. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW               
OVER EASTERN IL DURING TUE EVENING. BUT PRECIPITATION MUCH LIGHTER              
BY THEN SO ONLY HAVE BETWEEN A HALF AND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF                
DECATUR WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BY GALESBURG. HIGHS TUE TO RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 30S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG TO 50 TO 55F IN                   
SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS THE OH                  
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WED WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE SE OF                 
THE OH RIVER TUE NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR              
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. CANADIAN HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IL BY SUNSET WED WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS                     
DIMINISHING. LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS WED NIGHT.                                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE              
MIDWEST WED THROUGH FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS                
BEEN THE NORM DURING THE PAST MONTH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW             
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL IL LATER                 
THU NIGHT/FRI. WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW IF PRECIPITATION             
DID OCCUR. IL GETS MORE INTO A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND                
WITH TROF DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD MODIFY TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL                
THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF IS 24 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT              
INTO CENTRAL IL BY SUNSET SUNDAY WHILE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO CENTRAL IL UNTIL SUNSET MON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPIATION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING NEEDS              
TO BE RESOLVED.                                                                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
504 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 325 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                
00Z GFS AND SREF MODELS ARE HANDLING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                  
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND WILL FOLLOW THIS MODEL                
WITH HANDLING THIS LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT SHIFTS NE OF                  
CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY. RUC AND NAM KEPT IT DRY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL                
BUT GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF              
A SPRINGFIEND TO MATTOON TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. MODELS THEN SHOW                
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF IA/WI TONIGHT AND TUE AS LOW                    
PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES. MOSTLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FOR THIS EVENT. FORECAST                  
CHALLENGE IS WHEN RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND                
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.                                                            
09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SE                
CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO INTO              
CENTRAL IL. A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
MO TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET              
AND LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL MO AROUND ST LOUIS                    
EASTWARD INTO SE IL. ALSO PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET                
AND LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS QUINCY TO TAYLORVILLE AND                        
EFFINGHAM. THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED AS FAR NE AS JACKSONVILLE                 
AND SPRINGFIELD TO FLORA.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                     
JUST ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING UNTIL 10 AM               
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72. AS FAR NORTH AS CHRISTIAN...SHELBY...                  
MOULTRIE...COLES AND EDGAR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL                  
TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH/END LATE THIS MORNING AS SMALL                  
SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND EXITS ENE OF SE IL. REST OF DAY THEN LOOKS               
DRY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL. JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT                
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NW OF I-55.                                                 
560 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA WILL MOVE TOWARD                
NM/NW TX BY SUNSET WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.             
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY SW OF                
IL TODAY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE OF I-74 TO THE                   
UPPER 40S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. LOWS TONIGHT STAY               
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 35 TO 40F. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE INTO                      
CENTRAL MO BY DAWN TUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NE                
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TUE AS                 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL IL BY NOON TUE AND NORTHERN                     
INDIANA BY SUNSET TUE WHILE NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN MID MS VALLEY.                  
COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE                 
MORNING. SPC HAS GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-72 TUE. SHOULD              
HAVE DECENT RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                    
VALUES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD                  
INTO CENTRAL/SE IL AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND JET DYNAMICS.                     
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON NW OF              
I-55 AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 0C. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW               
OVER EASTERN IL DURING TUE EVENING. BUT PRECIPITATION MUCH LIGHTER              
BY THEN SO ONLY HAVE BETWEEN A HALF AND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF                
DECATUR WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BY GALESBURG. HIGHS TUE TO RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 30S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG TO 50 TO 55F IN                   
SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS THE OH                  
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WED WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE SE OF                 
THE OH RIVER TUE NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR              
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. CANADIAN HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IL BY SUNSET WED WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS                     
DIMINISHING. LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS WED NIGHT.                                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE              
MIDWEST WED THROUGH FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS                
BEEN THE NORM DURING THE PAST MONTH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW             
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL IL LATER                 
THU NIGHT/FRI. WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW IF PRECIPITATION             
DID OCCUR. IL GETS MORE INTO A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND                
WITH TROF DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD MODIFY TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL                
THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF IS 24 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT              
INTO CENTRAL IL BY SUNSET SUNDAY WHILE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO CENTRAL IL UNTIL SUNSET MON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPIATION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING NEEDS              
TO BE RESOLVED.                                                                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 500 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT                 
EAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MRNG AND SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING                  
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE SCATTERED            
LIGHT PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS                 
EVENING BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPRCHS THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM                  
WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF                 
MEXICO WITH CIGS AND VSBYS GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BETWEEN 05Z               
AND 08Z TONIGHT AS A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS                  
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC WNDS TODAY WILL BE 140-170 DEGREES             
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS TNT WL CONTINUE             
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS.                                     
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ052-                
054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1152 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 852 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                
CHALLENGE OF THE EVENING IS ON WHETHER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP                      
TONIGHT...AND IF IT DOES...HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN/ICING WILL OCCUR.             
WIND PROFILERS UPSTREAM SHOW A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL                     
WINDS...WITH A TEXTBOOK WAA PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. 40-45 KTS OF WIND              
AT 925-850MB INDICATE THE LLJ HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. SO LIFT               
IS DEFINITELY BEING GENERATED IN THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.                   
NOW THE QUESTION IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE STRONGEST OMEGA                 
LAYER OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR HERE AND UPSTREAM         
WAS APPARENT IN THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCHES AT ILX AND SGF MO. 80+PCT              
RH WAS NOT SEEN UNTIL 700MB OR 10K FT. CLOUD LAYERS APPROACHING                 
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT WITH OBS SHOWING 11-12K FT CLOUD HTS. A FEW                  
SPOTS OF 8.5K FT ARE DEVELOPING IN FAR NW MO...SO SOME LOWERING OF              
THE LAYER IS APPARENT.                                                          
THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC AND THE 00Z NAM SHOW TOO                 
MUCH DRY AIR FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. EVEN WITH THAT BEING               
SAID...STILL NOT COMFORTABLE WITH PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF                    
FZRA/SN FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT PRECIP TYPE ANALYSIS SHOWING                 
MORE OF A FZRA/SLEET COMBO POSSIBLE INSTEAD OF FZRA/SN...SO I                   
CHANGED THE WX GRID TO CHC OF FZRA/SLEET. EITHER WAY...THE                      
FREEZING RAIN IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS                     
TRAVEL. IF MORE QPF WERE POSSIBLE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                   
MIGHT BE IN ORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE                   
PRECIP ACCUM NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                                          
OVERALL...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT WERE TO THE                 
WX PRECIP TYPE...WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED               
A BIT. TEMPS APPEARED OK.                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                              
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1152 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                            
MID LEVEL WAA IS CREATING LIFT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA                    
ALREADY. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP WITH 20-25 DBZ REFL.              
INITIAL TEMP PROFILES SEEM LIKE WE MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW                 
INSTEAD OF FZRA AT THE ONSET. CLOUD DECKS ARE STILL AT 10K                      
FT...AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THAT CLOUD                
LVL. NWS LSX INDICATED SPRINKLES FROM 25 DBZ RADAR RETURNS...SO AS              
THE WARM LAYER DEEPENS OVER OUR CWA...WE MAY SEE FLAKES OF SNOW                 
CHANGE TO DROPS OF FZRA. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S                   
TONIGHT...SO THE WARM LAYER WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE FZRA INTO                 
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.                                                           
THE NEW NAM IS GOING DRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...WHILE THE               
GFS IS DROPPING AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF WATER. WILL KEEP 2HR TEMPOS                
FOR FZRA IN THE SPI/DEC/CMI TAFS...WITH JUST VCSH IN THE PIA/BMI                
TAFS. REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS...AS THE LOWER MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED.              
NEXT ISSUES ARE INCREASING WINDS MONDAY EVENING AND ONSET OF RAIN.              
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE                
SOME VCSH AND 5K FT DECKS AT MOST SITES BY 04-05Z MONDAY EVE. SOUTH             
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING.                          
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM             
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...                 
UPSTREAM...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE             
PLAINS. THE VARIOUS PHASES OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM THAT IMPACT            
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY            
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                       
12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES EXPECTED TO               
IMPACT FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE                
STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS THE MAIN LOW               
PASSES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE                         
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HAVE TRENDED            
THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS WHICH             
WOULD START THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY                   
AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP ALL RAIN GOING THROUGH THE DAY                    
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOWING SOME SPREAD...ESPECIALLY AS              
YOU GO OUT IN TIME. HAVE TENDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES              
BUT SHIED AWAY SOMEWHAT FROM THE GFS BASED MAV.                                 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET FOR               
THE MOST PART...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM                 
STILL FAR TO OUR WEST...IT WILL NOT BE WITHOUT POTENTIAL FORECAST               
PROBLEMS. A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO EVOLVE TO OUR WEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON...ALREADY NOTICEABLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI ON            
THE SURFACE CHART AND IN THE COOLING SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS...WILL                
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG                    
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS              
FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION AS IT LIFTS                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE AN INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS. FORECAST             
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW AT THE ONSET...BUT ENOUGH OF AN                  
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. THE                  
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE                
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND/OR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS INTO                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONSIDERED PUTTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT             
FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT ICING...BUT DO NOT FEEL THE FREEZING RAIN               
WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE AT THIS                
TIME. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD LARGELY END BY MIDDAY MONDAY              
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW                  
FREEZING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FACT...                  
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF OUR               
PRECIPITATION THREAT IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN SYSTEM...AS IT               
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSES BY TUESDAY...SHOULD BE A GOOD                
RAIN PRODUCER. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE                
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL KEEP GOOD MOISTURE AND                   
FORCING IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN STRONG             
AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER TUESDAY                
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING             
SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE SNOW THREAT FOR US DOES NOT LOOK TOO                
SIGNIFICANT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF RATHER                   
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE IS                
EXPECTED TO LARGELY STAY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SO...WITH THIS IN               
MIND...HAVE QUICKLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.                
WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO               
THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT BUILD               
INTO THE REGION.                                                                
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES                   
CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BEYOND                   
THURSDAY...WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE                 
FORECAST. WITH NO STRONG/PERSISTENT SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING            
THE PERIOD...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK               
AND WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS                
STILL SUGGESTS MILDER CONDITIONS THAN WERE EXPECTED SEVERAL DAYS                
AGO...BUT THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.              
SO...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WHICH ENDS UP BEING NEAR            
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. I DID END UP ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
RAIN/SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THERE IS A REASONABLE                
HINT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND                 
STRENGTH OF THE THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY LOW.                                       
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1202 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAFS.                                                    
MIXED FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF ALL THE SITES. VFR            
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AFTER 8Z. WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE                   
ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR             
IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. TIMING IS BASED ON SNDINGS AND THERMAL                 
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENUF FOR ALL PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN              
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND START TO GUST OVERNIGHT AS                
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.             
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
PUBLIC...CO                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
559 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 081200Z TAFS.                                                    
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. AN                 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND                 
SLEET TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH              
TO CAUSE LOWERED CIGS OR VSBY BUT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IT WILL                
FREEZE ON SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 15Z THIS MORNING                
AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A DEVELOPING STRONG LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL SEND WARMER AIR THIS WAY THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z. WINDS              
WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15KTS AND BEGIN TO GUST TO NEAR 25KTS LATE               
IN THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL DEVELOP AT            
IND IN THE LAST SIX HOURS BY 15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN ARRIVES.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.             
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ043-                
044-051>053-060>063-067>071.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.            
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 080600Z TAFS                                     
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR AVIATION WILL BE                   
INCREASING WINDS TOWARD END OF THE TAFS. THE TAFS WILL BEGIN WITH               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE            
EAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO             
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY AC CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH IT. WINDS WILL             
SHIFT TO THE S BY 12Z AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS BY 16Z. A STRONG                
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IL ARND 06Z. PRESSURE GRADIENT                
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES INDIANA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO              
GUST TO 20-25KTS AFTER 04Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM            
THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED AFTER 090600Z.              
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION              
OF THE IND TAF. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO NEAR THE END OF               
THE IND TAF. AFTER 090800Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KTS WITH                 
GUSTS ARND 30KTS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN                
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A            
TERRE HAUTE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SH                                                                   
PUBLIC...CO                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1254 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE                
REGION TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1                  
MILE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
MI. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY                 
WILL SUPPORT A WANING TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING. IN                     
ADDITION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION...BACKING IN THE PROCESS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT                   
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE AND ADDED LL MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE MI WILL              
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON                   
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY              
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.               
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY                   
EVENING...SUPPORTING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
NORTH. DETAILS ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNKNOWN.                     
HENCE...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY ADD WX MENTION TO              
TAF TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE... SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH CLIPPING THROUGH CNTRL                
LWR MI ATTM ABT TO CLR NW OH. STG CAA IN WAKE OF SFC BNDRY W/RAPID              
VEERING OF FLW ACRS LK MI AND RAMPING SNOW STREAMERS DVLPG IN ITS               
WAKE. UPSTREAM TEMPS CRASHING W/SINGLE DIGITS NOTED OVR MOST OF                 
MN. INITIAL LL FLW TRAJECTORY AT 320 DEGREES BUT VEERS FURTHER                  
UPSTREAM TO 300 AND SIMILAR TO 21Z RUC/12Z 4KM ARW PROGS. WHILE                 
THIS SUGGESTS GOING WSW HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MARK...IT ALSO RAISES                 
SOME FLAGS FURTHER INLAND ESP IN LIGHT OF STG LL MEAN FLW AND                   
INLAND CREEP XPCD W/INTENSE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS. HIRES ARW OUTPUT               
CONFIRMED BY 21Z RUC MAKE A CASE FOR E/SE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY                 
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR ST JOE MI/ELKHART.               
HWVR GIVEN DIMINISHING RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR AND DECREASING                    
INVERSION HGTS LT TONIGHT...DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITED. WILL              
CONT TO MONITOR UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH 7PM GIVEN EXISTING                    
ADVISORY TIL THEN.                                                              
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD XCP AT KSBN WHERE IFR                       
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIG WILL CONT OVERNIGHT BFR IMPRVG SOMEWHAT AFT            
DAYBREAK SUN.                                                                   
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOW OVER NRN MI WITH CDFNT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS                 
AFTN. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO                   
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CONTINUING TO GET SOME                   
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE DRY SLOT AND NORTHEAST OF THERE              
SNOWFALL WAS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SOME SGFNT WINTER WX HAZARDS SO                    
EXTENDED ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING TIL 7PM. MULT BAND LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NW PORTION OF CWA ATTM. SHRTWV SEEN              
ON WATER VAPOR MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM/NE WI THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SE               
ACRS THE CWA THIS EVE...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SNOW SHOWER                        
ACTIVITY. 925MB OMEGA FCSTS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT                 
BAND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS BERRIEN/CASS SEWD THROUGH                         
ELKHART/ST. JOE INDIANA. INVERSION FCST TO LOWER TO UNDER 5KFT                  
LATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OF SNOW                   
SHOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING... HWVR AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE              
OVERNIGHT... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO              
WIND TO DVLP ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN SHORE...LIKELY                     
CAUSING OR SUSTAINING A DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY               
MORNING. NAM12 SHOWING WK SFC TROF MOVG SSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE                  
TONIGHT... LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS LAND/LAKE WIND/CONVERGENCE                
INTERACTION. GOING FCST OF UP TO 6" OVERNIGHT IN ERN BERRIEN/CASS               
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SEEMS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES TO                
AMOUNTS/HEADLINES MADE ATTM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE                         
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE SNOW                
SHOWERS TAPER END. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE             
AOB ALL 12Z MOS...BUT SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A TOUCH TOO WARM BASED             
ON FCST -15C H85 TEMPS AND RECENT MOS WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATION            
ON FRI.                                                                         
SHRTWV TOPPING RIDGE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE               
INTO BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN US. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED                
TO APPROACH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COINCIDING WITH WAA ON BACKSIDE               
OF SFC RIDGE RESULTING IN DECENT MID LEVEL ISENT LIFT WITH 2G/KG                
MIXING RATIO ON 290K ISENT SFC AROUND 700MB. LOW LEVELS REMAIN                  
RATHER DRY THROUGH THIS PD SO STILL SOME DOUBT IF THIS WAA SNOW                 
WILL FALL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS OVER ALL BUT SRN                
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY               
NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND RATHER                
DRY LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH PRECEEDING COOLER DAY THAN FCST BY                  
MOS...ALL SUGGEST GOING LOWS IN TEENS AND BLO ALL 12Z MOS                       
GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE.                                    
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE BEGINNING AS MONDAY SEES               
WEAKENING CLIPPER WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
AREA OF MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  UPR LOW OVER                 
SOUTHWEST OPENS AND PHASES WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MOUNTAIN WEST             
AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SFC LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                  
WHILE DIFFERENCES EXITS IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THE                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A BETTER CONSENSUS ON A                 
WARMER SOLUTION WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS INDIANA.  FOLLOWED A               
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SUITE              
OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FURTHER SE WITH THIS SYSTEM            
PUTTING CWA IN A DECIDEDLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT.                                  
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OP GFS/ECMWF...THICKNESS FIELDS AND               
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN AN AREA OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED BY BRISK 40 KT FLOW ALONG MOIST 295K              
SFC. PROFILES DO NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL WINDOW FOR                 
FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH TIME AS SCENARIO OF                 
WAA ALOFT OVER TRAPPED COLD AIR BELOW COULD YET PRODUCE A PERIOD                
WITH FZRA HAZARD. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE COLUMN WARMS THROUGHOUT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE OPERATIONAL              
MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST CHANGING GRIDS OVER TO AN ALL RAIN                    
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW REACHING NEAR/ABV 40 FOR TUESDAY HIGHS              
AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FZ PROFILE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT                 
LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO..GFS/EC NOW IN BASIC AGREEMENT                 
WITH PTYPE SCENARIO...AND THE OP GFS HAS NUDGED FURTHER                         
NORTH/WARMER WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE RUNS. HOWEVER..THE FACT THAT IT IS               
AN OUTLIER AMONG ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO                
CHC SNOW MENTION TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR THE TIME                    
BEING. ECMWF IS FASTER/SHALLOWER WITH SFC LOW BUT HAS TRENDED                   
TOWARDS GFS WITH 12Z RUN AND CURRENT WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS IS                   
SLANTED TOWARDS SLOWER/DEEPER GFS.                                              
BEHIND SYSTEM COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE CWA CHANGING               
EVERYONE BACK OVER TO A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND               
RETURNING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD H85              
TEMPS AND NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE            
CONSERVATIVELY ADDED CHC POPS IN BERRIEN COUNTY.  MODELS THEN BRING             
IN ANOTHER WAVE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING              
DIFFERENCES AND LARGE CONTRASTS IN DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
OVER NOAM. HAVE LEFT DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW TO LET THINGS SORT OUT                   
WITH ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                    
     INZ004>008-016-017.                                                        
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-078.           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079-            
     080.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/18Z                                                              
LIGHT SNOW WILL END NEAR MCW AND ALO BY AROUND 20Z THEN WILL HAVE A             
RETURN OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO A             
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN                     
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME FREEZING              
RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTM/ALO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.                  
POSSIBLE THIS PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE DSM AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
600 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/12Z                                                              
VFR CIGS...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW             
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING                     
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA. VSBYS REDUCTIONS               
FROM LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN 3 TAF SITES WHERE             
MVFR/MARGINAL IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN HEAVIER                 
BANDS. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE WITHIN THE BANDS              
OF SNOW AS WELL. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM               
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS             
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND...BUT ATTM            
HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT DECK. ALSO A WEAK DISTURBANCE                  
TRAVELING ACROSS SRN IA LATE TONIGHT...MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND            
PATCHY FZDZ TO KOTM. UNCERTAINTY QUITE HIGH WITH THIS...SO HAVE LEFT            
OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
348 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECIEVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL       
FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT                
PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY                   
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...RAIN WILL               
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE                
LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH...ALONG                
WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE                
NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW                   
MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER MUCH CHANCE FOR                    
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A                    
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR WORKS ITS               
WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME THOUGH                 
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT                    
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/06Z                                                              
WARM ADVECTION SETTING IN QUICKLY WEST WITH WINDS BECOMING SSE BY               
MORNING. ZONE OF STRONGER THETAE ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS             
ALREADY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AND WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.              
CLOUDS NOW ENTERING WESTERN IA WITH CEILINGS LOWERING.  MODEST MID              
LEVEL LIFT WILL CAUSE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK                 
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE              
SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS MAINLY WITH VSBYS OF GENERAL 3-5SM CAT.                
SMALL CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER                    
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z NORTH SECTIONS. CIGS GRADUALLY               
LIFTING TOWARD 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...IMPACT NOT AS             
GREAT WITH KOTM SEEING LEAST IMPACT FROM THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP                
THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA              
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AFT 08/00Z WILL SEE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AND                 
ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS TO RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE             
REGION. /REV                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT                                                           
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
AVIATION...REV                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
352 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
 WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS SW KANSAS TONIGHT INTO                 
EARLY TUESDAY.                                                                  
A MODERATE STRENGTH WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING            
FROM THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO A                
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE THAT BEGAN TO BREAK DOWN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER             
THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR LIE AHEAD OF THE 850 TO 700 MB TROUGH               
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CYCLOGENESIS WAS ONGOING AT            
THE SURFACE AS WELL OVER DODGE CITY.                                            
THE WEATHER EVENT COMING TOGETHER TONIGHT WILL BE BE SLOW TO DEVELOP            
AS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR LIE OVER SW KS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW             
RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, IT WILL BE HARD TO GET SUFFICIENT LIFT            
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEG VORTICITY                 
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LATER INTO THE EVENING.                       
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DEEPER COLD AIR                
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT, SUFFICIENTLY ALLOWING A                
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF BY THAT TIME.                     
QPF AMOUNTS ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY EACH MODEL HOWEVER A                     
CONSENSUS OF AROUND A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH QPF IS LIKELY AT              
LEAST OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH               
LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.                              
MODEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VARY FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH A                 
WIDESPREAD 2 INCHES, TO 5 INCHES THE SW SECTIONS, TO THE LIKELY                 
MORE REALISTIC NAM WHICH RELEGATES THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE               
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE FAR             
NORTH AND EAST.                                                                 
WILL HEADLINE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE            
CWA AND A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD            
BE MINOR. AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH 25-30 MPH                 
SUSTAINED WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD CERTAINLY CREATE                       
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES OVERNIGHT. WITH RUC VISIBILITIES                  
INDICATING AROUND A HALF MILE OR MORE IN ITS WORST CASE SCENARIO,               
DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE BLIZZARD CRITERIA (SNOW WITH 35 MPH GUST             
AND 3 HOURS LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY) WOULD BE                       
MET.                                                                            
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGH                
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S OVER A LARGE AREA. VERY MUCH                  
COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY GOOD                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER SOME FRESH SNOW. SURFACE TOUGHING WILL                 
BEGIN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S WITH               
PLENTY OF INSOLATION DEVELOPING LIGHT WEST WINDS.                               
RUSSELL                                                                         
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LATTER PORTION OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ARCTIC               
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
THE ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SOME ON THE AGGRESSIVENESS OF THE ARCTIC              
INTRUSION LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. ECMWF H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE             
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR DOME HAVE RISEN AS MUCH AS 5 DEGC ACROSS THE             
BOARD...A LITTLE BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ARCTIC TEMPERATURES.             
THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 12            
HOURS OR SO...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS LATE            
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  CLEARLY, THIS HAS CHANGED THE THINKING FOR                
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.                 
GIVEN THE INTENSE BAROCLINICITY EXPECTED...HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT             
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERHAPS            
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES AWAY TO THE NORTH.  FOR NOW...WILL PLAY             
THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING              
HOURS SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.  IT NOW                 
SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY NOW THAT BITTERLY COLD HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL              
HAPPEN...UNLESS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION                    
EXISTS.  NEITHER ONE OF THESE SEEMS LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY AT THIS             
POINT GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK             
OF AMPLIFICATION TO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST.  MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD             
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  SHOULD THE LONGWAVE PATTERN                
CONTINUE INTO THE FAR EXTENDED....THEN THERE MAY BE A CHANCE AT SOME            
AMPLIFICATION IN THE OVERALL "TROUGH IN THE WEST" WHICH MAY YIELD               
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DESERT                              
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL             
WELL AFTER DAYS 7 AND 8.  UNTIL THEN, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE                
VERY LIGHT, AS SMALL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLE THROUGH THE GENERAL                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS.  THE REST OF              
THE FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE.  HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BIT FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY AS WARM SECTOR LOOKS RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER                   
06Z...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING, INCREASING WINDS, AND FALLING                       
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.  CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MVFR               
RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH.  AS SNOW                   
DEVELOPS AROUND 06Z...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE             
WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VISIBILITY FALLING TO BELOW 3 MILES IN                
LIGHT SNOW.  AS SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS (MAINLY IN THE 09-12Z RANGE) VISIBILITY WILL FALL BELOW ONE               
MILE AT TIMES.  THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE A FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED                    
ONE...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE              
AFTER 15Z TUES.                                                                 
UMSCHEID                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  25  30  17  44 /  80  60   0   0                                           
GCK  23  30  17  45 /  80  50   0   0                                           
EHA  25  31  20  48 /  80  50   0   0                                           
LBL  26  31  19  45 /  70  60   0   0                                           
HYS  24  28  16  42 /  80  50   0   0                                           
P28  29  32  17  43 /  70  60  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHERN 2/3 CWA              
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN33/25                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1116 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
BY 18Z TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH GLD AREA BEING                 
THE HOT SPOT. HAVE UPPED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE SOUTHWEST...AS CURRENT TEMP TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE                
AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE MIXED.                                              
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 15Z WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO                
THE NORTH AROUND 12 KTS.                                                        
JRM &&                                                                          
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
941 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
937 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
441 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST              
ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST            
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE              
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
426 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BY 05Z                
OR 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 8           
TO 10 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...WINDS                  
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH                   
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE                
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1159 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION...TAKING THE                
OVERRUNNING LIGHT PRECIP THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CWA WITH IT. IN                 
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW AND           
MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO THINNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S            
ACROSS THE SW CWA...BUT ARE NOW JUST CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS             
THE FAR N AND NE. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS THE           
TREAT HAS ENDED...HOWEVER MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK OR            
ICY SPOTS IN AN SPS THROUGH NOON IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAD BEEN PRECIP           
AND TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. OTHER THAN EXPIRING              
THE WSW...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS IT STILL APPEARS            
THAT THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE.                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF           
THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF NOT JUST BEYOND THE            
FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY            
AND POSSIBLY BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD               
FRONT. ONCE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DISSIPATES BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...             
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20KT EVERYWHERE...WITH GUSTS              
OF 30 TO 40KT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JP                                                           
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1103 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION...TAKING THE                
OVERRUNNING LIGHT PRECIP THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CWA WITH IT. IN                 
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW AND           
MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO THINNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S            
ACROSS THE SW CWA...BUT ARE NOW JUST CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS             
THE FAR N AND NE. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS THE           
TREAT HAS ENDED...HOWEVER MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK OR            
ICY SPOTS IN AN SPS THROUGH NOON IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAD BEEN PRECIP           
AND TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. OTHER THAN EXPIRING              
THE WSW...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS IT STILL APPEARS            
THAT THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE.                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE             
AREA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS                    
DEVELOPED WITHIN A LARGER BAND OF WHAT IS MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KJKL. OTHERWISE...              
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WARMER AIR WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDING ANY FROZEN PRECIP                 
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY            
OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND             
WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JP                                                           
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
650 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                           
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED                                              
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE             
AREA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS                    
DEVELOPED WITHIN A LARGER BAND OF WHAT IS MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KJKL. OTHERWISE...              
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WARMER AIR WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDING ANY FROZEN PRECIP                 
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY            
OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND             
WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                 
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111-114.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
640 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
UPDATED TO ADD A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE                    
AREA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF JACKSON. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT                 
THROUGH 10 AM EST.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
JUST HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE            
PERIOD SO VRF CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT               
JKL WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING              
AND COULD DROP A FEW SPITS OF SNOW OR RAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE            
ADDED A TEMPO AT JKL FROM 10Z THROUGH 14Z FOR LOWER BUT STILL VFR               
CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. FOR THE REST JUST INCLUDED SOME              
VCSH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING FROM              
THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME              
GUSTINESS EXPECTED LATE...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                 
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111-114.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
345 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                 
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED                                 
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
JUST HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE            
PERIOD SO VRF CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT               
JKL WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING              
AND COULD DROP A FEW SPITS OF SNOW OR RAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE            
ADDED A TEMPO AT JKL FROM 10Z THROUGH 14Z FOR LOWER BUT STILL VFR               
CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. FOR THE REST JUST INCLUDED SOME              
VCSH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING FROM              
THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME              
GUSTINESS EXPECTED LATE...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM...RAY                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
125 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED                         
EARLIER...OPTED TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE                    
SW...WITH COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN                        
MIND...OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS             
COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF            
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST             
COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY                
LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED            
BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING                    
SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON             
SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE               
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                                             
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE                   
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING                
PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY               
LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST            
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                          
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANYING A           
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH               
10Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND AS DEPICTED BY THE VCSH IN THE TAFS.            
PUT A TEMPO INTO THE TAFS FROM 07 THROUGH 11Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...            
BOTH VIS AND CIG...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL           
DIMINISH TO JUST FLURRIES TOWARD DAWN WITH CIGS DISAPPEARING BY NOON.           
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...NOW EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THE WINDS HAVE                
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ELEMENT OF GUSTINESS. EXPECT THESE             
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TOWARD DAWN AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT              
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
829 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1ST IN A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE OK/TX PHNDL                   
REGION ATTM MOVING INTO N TX/S OK. LARGE SCALE LIFT IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH IS NOW INTO THE TX               
HILL COUNTRY IS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER                 
VALLEY AND AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35                
CORRIDOR. MAIN SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL                
GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL PRETTY WELL CAPPED PER OUR 00Z SOUNDING.                
THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TO OUR NW AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES BUT                
FEEL LIKE THE CHANCES ON SEEING ANY SURFACE BASED SEVERE ACTIVITY               
IS PRETTY SLIM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS                   
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-35               
CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT...AND MOVING INTO OUR EXTREME NW ZONES                     
BETWEEN 06-09Z TIMEFRAME. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS CONVECTION RAPIDLY              
EXPLODING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06-09Z                
WITH CONVECTION INTO NE TX/SE OK/SW AR AND EXTREME NW LA BY 12Z.                
THIS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO               
POPS OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH                    
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH MODEST WAA PATTERN UNDERWAY. FCST MIN TEMPS              
SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 DEGREE DROP MOST PLACES WITH A LARGER              
DROP NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THIS IS DEPENDANT ON ANTICIPATED               
RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST MIN TEMPS.                  
DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE ARE NOT               
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST. WILL ALSO LET THE LAKE                 
WIND ADVISORY RIDE EVEN THOUGH WE ARE REALLY NOT MEETING CRITERIA               
ACROSS OUR EASTER ZONES. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY                      
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS N                
TX LATE.                                                                        
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS                  
EVENING HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION.                  
THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL              
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND INTO                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
BECAUSE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE               
LOW TO THE WEST...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 10              
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.                                                 
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINAL SITES AROUND 03Z               
FOLLOWED BY STEADY PROGRESSION EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.            
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND             
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE IFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY                      
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE                   
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. /05/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  62  70  38  49  29 /  70  80  30  20  10                                   
MLU  60  69  40  46  32 /  40 100  70  30  10                                   
DEQ  57  65  32  45  25 /  90  50  20  10   0                                   
TXK  60  68  37  49  28 /  80  70  20  10  10                                   
ELD  60  70  38  48  29 /  40  80  50  20  10                                   
TYR  62  70  35  49  32 /  80  40  20  10  10                                   
GGG  62  71  36  49  29 /  80  60  20  10  10                                   
LFK  64  73  38  50  31 /  70  60  30  40  10                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.                                         
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.                                         
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: OKZ077.                                                             
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13/05                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
352 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END                
ACROSS THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. WIND WILL INCREASE              
LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT                 
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST OF THE GULF OF               
MAINE INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE INTENSE                
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.              
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS                 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR                  
AREA IS BANDING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. SITUATION IS FURTHER COMPLICATED               
WITH INTRUSION OF WARMER MARITIME AIR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST                    
WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH TEMPORARILY CHANGED SNOW TO RAIN. BANDING               
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED WITH COASTAL FRONTOGENSIS INDUCED BY WARM               
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STRATEGY WILL BE TO USE RUC13...WHICH IS              
MOST SUITED FOR BANDING EVENT AND CURRENTLY CORRELATES BEST TO                  
RADAR. WILL THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WILL               
USE NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND WIND INTO THIS EVENING THEN TRANSITION               
TO GMOS NUMBERS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)                  
MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY QUICK FALL IN TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED EARLY               
MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. IN FACT... SUBZERO READINGS ARE                
LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH...BEFORE                 
TEMPS LEVEL OUT LATER AT NIGHT WITH OVERALL PRESSURE FALL PATTERN               
DEVELOPING...AND SOME CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE IN WEAK WARM                  
AIR ADVECTION (WWA).                                                            
WE WILL TRY TO USE A SENSIBLE WEATHER APPROACH TO A VERY COMPLEX                
PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST AN INCREASING              
ISENTROPIC LIFTING REGIME WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS                     
TUESDAY...WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PCPN SHOULD               
START AS SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AS               
OVERALL THERMAL STRUCTURE WARMS.                                                
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING/WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY               
NIGHT...WHILE OUR AREA COMES UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN              
INTENSIFYING ANTICYCLONIC JET ALOFT. TREMENDOUS LIFTING POTENTIAL               
WILL YIELD PCPN OVER OUR FA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ..WHILE PCPN              
STRUCTURE SHIFTS FROM SNOW TO RAIN CENTRAL...AND PCPN GRADUALLY                 
BECOMES A MIXTURE SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTH LATE.                              
IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY...               
WITH ALL PCPN BUSTING OVER TO RAIN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH THE MODELS A BIT AT ODDS...BUT THE ECMWF              
HAS BEEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES               
A 987MB LOW CENTERED NEAR QUEBEC CITY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM                     
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF HAS A 992MB LOW               
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING              
SW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THOUGH THE               
DIFFERENCE DOESN`T SOUND DRASTIC...IT IS A MAJOR DIFFERENCE FOR THE             
COASTAL WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST COAST AND INLAND DOWNEAST. THE                  
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH                 
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY                 
WHEN THE MODELS ARE BACK INTO AGREEMENT AND REMAIN IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE GMOS FOR THE                
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS HELD ITS              
TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE OTHER MODELS TRENDING                    
TOWARD IT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT BUT...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS FORECASTED                
IT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE DOWNEAST             
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST FROM WED EVENING THROUGH THUR                       
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO IFR                 
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...            
AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO                   
PERSIST BEYOND MIDWEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASING WIND SPEED TO QUICKLY               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MANUALLY ADJUST CURRENT WIND SPEEDS                  
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 WINDS. HAVE INITIALIZED WINDS TONIGHT AND              
MONDAY WITH NAM12...THEN WILL INCREASE MODEL SPEEDS AROUND 3 KNOTS              
TO ELIMINATE LOW BIAS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED WNA/4 WHICH LOOKS                   
REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE TIMING OF GALE WARNING AS IS...DO NOT                    
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH GALE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTS              
SHOULD JUSTIFY CURRENT TIMING.                                                  
SHORT TERM. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED             
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET AND GALES WILL               
BE LIKELY.                                                                      
LONG TERM: A STRONG GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED WED AFTERNOON                  
THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM              
WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002-              
     005-006.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-            
     016-029.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...STUREY                                                             
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/STUREY/NORTON                                                  
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1052 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS                 
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTENSIFY TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TOWARD                   
LABRADOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON                  
MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. INTENSIFYING                 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WARM                   
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE                     
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
PRIMARY CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY.              
WILL FOCUS ON RUC13 AND CARWRF WHICH ARE BEST SUITED TO HANDLE                  
THIS TYPE OF EVENT.                                                             
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW LOCAL REPORTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER               
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS RUC13 SUGGESTING              
ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER SAME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
RUC13 BUFKIT ALSO INDICATING STRONG OMEGA. WITH SUBSTANTIAL                     
AMOUNTS ALREADY ON GROUND AND MORE BANDING INDICATED HAVE OPTED                 
TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST                
AREA BASED ON 24 HOUR TOTALS. HAVE INITIALIZED QPF WITH 12Z/RUC13               
WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. SNOW GRIDS GENERATED ON QPF GRIDS                 
BASED ON 10:1 RATIO.                                                            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON                
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS OF UP 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS                 
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO                    
MONITOR THINGS AND DECIDED WHETHER TO EXTEND OR NOT.                            
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT W/THE FAR NORTHERN                  
AREAS HANGING ONTO SOME LINGERING SNOW W/THE COLD NW FLOW COMING                
OFF THE ST. LAWRENCE. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM                     
DROPPING TOO FAR. USED THE GMOS NUMBERS AND RAISED THEM UP A FEW                
DEGS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND WIND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY                
COLD WINDS MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS              
THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO             
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AIR              
IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP                  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING                     
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH                
THE MIDWEST WILL PULL A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY                   
SPREADING SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOULD                 
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY AS WARMER                  
AIR BEGINS SURGING IN FROM THE OCEAN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE                 
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES NORTH.                 
THE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN BRING STRONG               
SOUTH WINDS...RAIN AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S DOWNEAST AND 40S               
OVER THE NORTH. A WIND ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY WARNING MAY BE NEEDED              
FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY                   
NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF                 
ARE THEN INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING UP FROM THE                  
SOUTHEAST MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT STALLS              
TO OUR EAST...AND POSSIBLY BRING SNOW ON THURSDAY TO EASTERN AREAS.             
FOR NOW ONLY GOING CHANCE SNOW NORTH AND LIKELY DOWNEAST ON                     
THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THE                 
END OF THE WEEK SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND COOL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR FOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY W/IMPROVING                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL                 
BE FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES              
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: AS MENTIONED BELOW A GALE WARNING IS UP. EXPECT THE                  
WINDS TO COME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THEN KICK TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BLENDED THE                  
NAM12 AND GFS W/SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS THIS                   
MORNING AS WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT                       
INITIALIZATION. DECIDED ON GUSTS HITTING 40 KT TONIGHT AS COLD NW               
FLOW COMES OVER THE WATERS. USED THE GFSSWAN TO START THE SEAS                  
OUT AS THEY WERE UP TO 6-7 FT AND THEN BLENDED THE WNAWAVE4 WHICH               
SHOWS SEAS FALL BACK THIS MORNING AND THEN BUILD AGAIN LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                                         
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH               
MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MOVING                   
NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH MONDAY                 
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT                    
LIKELY REACHING A STRONG GALE ON WEDNESDAY AND AN EXTENSIVE SOUTH               
FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 20 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-            
     005-006-011-016-029.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                      
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                       
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER                                                 
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
931 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH             
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID                
ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN                 
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT...OFF             
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
WAITED UNTIL 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF CAME IN TO DO THE EVE UPDATE. THESE           
MODELS ALONG WITH THE LTST RUC BASICALLY INCRS CLOUD COVER THRU OVRNITE         
HRS BUT KEEP FA DRY THRU 12Z. ANY WAA PCPN THAT DOES DVLP AFTR 09Z STAYS        
W OF FA...MAINLY ALONG AND W OF FOOTHILLS. MIN TMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR           
BY 06Z...THEN XPCT STDY OR SLOWLY RISING TMPS AND DP TMPS BY 12Z. THE           
CAVEAT HERE IS ACROSS THE XTREME SWRN PIEDMONT ARND 12Z WHERE IT IS             
PSBL FOR SOME LGT RAIN/SPRNKLS TO DVLP (FROM AN AVC- FVX LINE). TMPS            
AT THIS TIME XPCTD TO BE AT OR JUST ABV 32 DEGREES. THUS...NOT OUT OF           
THE QSTN THAT SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN/FRZ DRIZZLE OCCUR AT THE VRY START         
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO PUT IN FCST.                               
SINCE THIS EVENT BLEEDS INTO SCND PRD...I WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED               
THE GRIDS THRU 18Z. BASICALLY DON`T SEE MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN E OF                
I95 UNTIL AFTRN...AS BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN                 
REMAINS WELL W OF I95. PCPN STILL XPCTD TO OVRSPRD FA DRNG AFTRN.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                    
HIGH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. TUESDAY IS SLIGHTLY              
DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON               
SLOWING THINGS DOWN TUES)...ESP FOR THE SE...SO TEMPS REMAIN                    
RATHER WARM (EVEN WITH DECENT CLOUD CVR SHOULD GET UP INTO THE LWR              
60S IN THE SE ZONES TUES AFTN). SAME SITUATION TUES NIGHT...POPS                
HIGHER IN THE NW BUT LOWER IN THE SE.                                           
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WED AFTN/EVNG ALTHOUGH THIS TIME               
PERIOD IS WHERE THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. HPC FAVORS THE              
ECMWF FOR DAY 3...WITH AN 80/20 BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR DAY 4                
IN OUR AREA. AND FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS                 
THINKING AS THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE (WITH REGARD TO                 
TIMING AND FROZEN PRECIP CHANGE) WITH EVERY RUN.                                
WITH HPC`S THINKING IN MIND...DID RAISE POPS LATER IN THE EVENT ON              
THURS. WHILE THE LATEST GFS NOW PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH AND SOUTH              
OF THE AREA THURS AFTN...THE ECMWF TRACKS THE NEXT SFC LOW A BIT                
FURTHER NORTH (INTO WESTERN VA/NC) BY THURS AFTN...THEREFORE                    
KEEPING PRECIP OVER MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BOTH                   
MODELS KEEPING THIS JUST A RA EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURS NIGHT.          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TRACKING NE                
ALONG CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...PUSHING INTO THE SERN CWA BY LTR                 
FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GGEM SOLN IS DECIDEDLY FASTER THAN GFS                   
ATTM). FOR NOW WL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND LEAN MORE WEIGHT               
TWDS MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. AS A RESULT...WHILE WE WL HV SLIGHTLY               
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE THURS/EARLY FRI...FORECAST LKS                         
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN GFS. GIVEN THIS..WL HOLD ONTO ONLY LIGHT               
SNOW POSSIBILITY EARLY FRI MORNING FOR THE NW THIRD OF OUR CWA (W/              
LGT RAIN ELSEWHERE). THINKING IS THAT SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT                 
LATER FRI INTO SATURDAY AS SFC LOW ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW                
ENGLAND.                                                                        
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THAT AREA AND P-TYPE ISSUES WL                    
PROBABLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STAY TUNED!                            
UPR FLOW BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER (QUASI-ZONAL) OVR THE WEEKEND              
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TREND TWDS DEPICTING              
RISING HGTS OVER EASTERN CONUS...WITH A LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING                  
INTO THE WEST. THIS WL LKLY PORTEND TO A TRANSITION TWDS WARMER                 
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER WX FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LLVL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER GA/SC TO               
WORK ITS WAY N OVERNIGHT MOISTENING THE LAYER AND LOWERING CEILING              
HEIGHT. EVEN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT FOG WITH CLOUD              
COVER AND SLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN MOVE                  
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY...EXPECT MVFR (AROUND                 
1500 FT) CIGS DURING RAIN. MORE INTENSE PRECIP...SHRAS WITH AFTN                
TSRA OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA               
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT MVFR AVN CONDS WITH IFR DURING HEAVIEST                  
PRECIP ON WED.                                                                  
GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF FRONT WED NGHT AND WITH LOW                      
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING UP SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND INTO                  
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS REGARDING IMPACT ON                      
AVIATION FOR THUR AND FRI.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT INTO ERY TUESDAY...AS PRES                       
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVR THE                    
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHICH PUSHES A CD FRNT THRU THE REGION ON                    
WEDNESDAY. AS PREV SHIFT NOTED...MID LLVL WINDS LOOK SIMILAR TO                 
PREV FEW MARGINAL SOUTHERLY GALE EVENTS...WHERE OBS ACTUALLY DID                
NOT QUITE MAKE GALES. HOWEVER...MODELS/BUFR SNDINGS CAN AGREE ON                
SOLID SCA CRIT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS/CHES BAY BY MID-LATE TUESDAY               
MORNING THRU LT WEEK...AND HV GOOD AMOUNT OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE                
FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO HOIST SCA FLAGS ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO LOCAL                
POLICY...WL RUN FLAGS THRU MIDDAY WED FOR NOW...WITH THE                        
EXPECTATION THAT THEY WL BE DRAGGED FARTHER OUT IN TIME BY FUTURE               
SHIFTS.                                                                         
MDLS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS FOR THE LATE WEEK OUTLOOK.                       
HOWEVER...APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW                   
ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI WHICH WILL KEEP THE                   
WATERS UNDER AT LEAST A SCA THRU THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY          
     FOR ANZ630>633.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY              
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MPR                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MPR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JYM                                                                
LONG TERM...JYM/MAM                                                             
AVIATION...BAJ                                                                  
MARINE...BAJ/MAM                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1043 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADVISORY HEADLINES WERE DROPPED AS MODEL FCST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON              
THE 290F SFC AND MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS             
OF HEAVIER SYSTEM SOUTH STAYING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.                 
USING A GFS/NAM/WRF-ARW MODEL BLEND QPF AND A 15/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO             
YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL               
...EXCEPT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY. WITH ANOTHER 1-2                 
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT              
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HEADLINES WERE DROPPED.                               
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE FCST.                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES               
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WITH LEAD WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH            
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE                   
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED...THERE WON`T BE A WELL-DEFINED                         
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A GENERAL LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS             
THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE UPPER                
LAKES. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SOME LES IS OCCURRING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
OVER THE SE FCST AREA IN LIGHT SRLY FLOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM                    
KGRB/KAPX SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO                
SUPPORT LES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BRING -SN NE INTO THE FCST AREA            
TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA             
OF -SN FROM NEBRASKA TO CNTRL/SRN WI IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20KT/25KT                 
S/SW WINDS AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY AT SLATER IA. SO ASCENT IS NOT             
PARTICULARLY STRONG. TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER VEER                
SLIGHTLY...CAUSING ASCENT TO SHIFT MORE E THAN N...AND THE NRN                  
PORTION OF ASCENT WEAKENS AS WINDS CROSS ISOBARS AT A DECREASING                
ANGLE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL THEN LIFT NE TO THE LWR                 
LAKES REGION BY LATE TUE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS WELL-DEFINED               
NOW AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA...ALL MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE WEAKENING            
AS IT HEADS NE INTO INCREASING CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. ACCOMPANYING              
SFC LOW ALSO WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...             
LARGER SCALE TROF TAKES ON AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. ALL OF THIS             
WILL CONSPIRE TO WORK AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR                  
DESPITE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NE TO PROVIDE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SO...WHILE THE NRN EDGE OF SNOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA...SEEMS               
REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE                
LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A TREND FROM THE 12Z MODELS                 
FOR LESS PCPN. EVEN WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS...AN ADVY IS STILL                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.                
EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN              
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS WELL ALOFT...ROUGHLY                    
10-15KFT AGL. THIS MAY WORK TO DECREASE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WITH              
ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.              
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES (00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z TUE)             
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE                
CITY OF MENOMINEE. IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS OF LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUE IN              
UPCOMING RUNS...AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE SCALED BACK FURTHER AND ADVY             
MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED.                                                       
ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL GET INVOLVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR                
LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS WINDS BECOME N TO NE. WITH LITTLE OVERLAP              
OF NRLY WINDS AND DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...LAKE INVOLVEMENT WILL             
BE LIMITED. SO...AWAY FROM THE ADVY AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                  
TONIGHT THRU TUE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.                                 
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AT 00Z WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED            
FROM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NRN MEXICO.                 
MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE                   
TROUGH...WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AROUND 06Z WED...THEN                  
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z THU. THE PROGRESSION OF             
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI              
INTO SE LOWER MI SUPPRESSED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE. THIS                 
MEANS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUE SHOULD SHIFT             
EAST TUE EVENING. KEPT IN SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG LAKE MI IN THE                 
EVENING FOR TIMING ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TUE NIGHT INTO               
WED MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAUSED BY COLD               
AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO                
DROP TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z WED...DEFINITELY SUFFICENT FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT. MOISTURE DOES DEPART FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...              
AND AFTER 06Z WED WHEN THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST...INVERSIONS WILL              
LOWER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. IN                    
ADDITION...WINDS ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SHIFTING...WHICH WILL PREVENT              
ANY ONE SPOT FROM STAYING IN A BAND. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFLY SNOW               
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR LAKE                       
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKE EFFECT WILL            
LIKELY DIMINISH MORE WED MORNING AS FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC WITH A              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. IN FACT...SOUTH CENTRAL             
AND PERHAPS EVEN MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WED MORNING.              
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW             
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MARCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MN. THIS IS A            
BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND REALLY LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAYS 12Z                
NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. NOW ALL THE MODELS ARE ON                 
BOARD WITH THE FASTER SCENARIO...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME -SN                 
ACROSS MN...NW WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...DEPENDING                     
ON HOW QUICK THE DRY AIR EXITS. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR             
CWA...THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT. STAYED TOWARD THE                
COOLER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO BELOW AT NIGHT BECAUSE OF BREEZY               
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...MODELS BRING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...THEN LIFT IT TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON THU.                
MUCH OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM ADVECTION...WHICH WILL              
HELP BRING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER            
MOST AREAS AND CAN ENVISION RAISING THEM TO CATEGORICAL IF THE 00Z              
MODEL CYCLE TONIGHT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT...THE PROBLEM            
IS SOME LACK OF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AN             
INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE EXISTS A                      
POSSIBLITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR                 
EASTERN CWA. LATE WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION COMES IN AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI. IT                   
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED AFTER 06Z               
FOR WESTERN UPPER MI. FOR THU...WITH THE CLIPPER HEADING OFF TO THE             
NE...COLD ADVECTION GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN DEAL.               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI. WIND FLOW            
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF               
THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE.            
SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY            
WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND. REGARDING TEMPS...RAISED THEM QUITE A BIT              
WED NIGHT TO A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
PCPN HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB THU MORNING                
BEFORE MORE COLD AIR COMES IN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EITHER HOLD                   
READINGS STEADY OR HAVE THEM FALL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO                 
THUS TEMPS.                                                                     
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG                  
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT IS THAT             
BY 12Z SUN...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SW. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE                
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GETTING OUT INTO SUN AND MON SINCE SW FLOW             
IS USUALLY PRETTY ACTIVE. FOR THU NIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD                 
AIR WILL ENTER THE CWA BEHIND THURSDAYS CLIPPER...MEANING SOME MORE             
LAKE EFFECT FOR WEST AND NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z FRI. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS              
ON FRI...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. THE RETURN               
FLOW COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH THE             
LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS                     
INDICATED TO HEAD TOWARDS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DVPA FORCING              
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A              
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP...GIVEN THAT                 
850-LAKE SFC DELTA TS ARE 11-14C. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS              
AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER SAT...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.               
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO BY SAT EVENING. THE 00Z                        
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS LOW NE ACROSS                
UPPER MI LATE SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER                    
BRINGING UP THIS LOW...NOT HAVING IT CROSS UNTIL MON. THE REASON FOR            
THE SLOWER GFS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE CLIPPER ON SAT WHERE IT IS            
QUITE A BIT DEEPER. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PROVIDE NO HELP EITHER IN                 
DETERMINING WHICH SCENARIO MIGHT BE CORRECT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT                
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL ENTRAIN ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO                  
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD A WET SNOW...WHICH COULD ALSO CHANGE              
TO RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE                 
WHICH LEANS A BIT MORE TO THE ECMWF IDEA...BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FORECAST               
WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON FOR SYNOPTIC                
INDUCED SNOW...EITHER FROM WARM ADVECTION OR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS            
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUN. WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                         
12Z GFS CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...GIVING A LITTLE MORE                  
CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A BIT               
CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AS WELL. DUE TO ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE                  
SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAR OUT THE SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON IS IN                       
TIME...WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW FOR RAISING TEMPS MORE AND                      
MENTIONING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW EVENT IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.                
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AMEND KSAW TO RAISE CONDITIONS BACK UP INTO MVFR            
CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE                  
ACCUMULATING SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH. ONSET OF LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNE FLOW COULD BRING IN SOME IFR              
VSBYS ON TUE.                                                                   
THE ONLY SNOW KCMX WILL GET IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS NRLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE               
SOUTH. NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUE BUT INCREASING DRIER AIR FROM             
THE NORTH WILL KEEP LES LIGHT AND THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY                
WILL BE MVFR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES TROF ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DRIFT S TONIGHT. LOW PRES             
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE TROF...REACHING               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO               
BECOME N AND RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. SINCE LOW IS                     
WEAKENING...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND            
25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT TUE MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KT TUE EVENING ON            
LAKE SUPERIOR...IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY WED                 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...CAUSING SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30                
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THU AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25             
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF                
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS            
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE TO             
POSSIBLY 30 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                     
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NE AT UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT OVER                   
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1000 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/                                                  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS                   
TONIGHT THEN TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. HEAVY            
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING            
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO A GOOD PORTION OF             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER            
AIR WILL AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK LEADING TO SOME               
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN THE SNOWBELTS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 933 PM/...TONIGHT                                      
998MB SURFACE LOW WEAKENING A BIT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS.                
PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DOWN NEAR INDY AND DAYTON OHIO.                   
SECONDARY TROF AXIS/WIND SHIFT LINE IS JUST NORTH OF ROCKFORD IL AND            
MILWAUKEE...AND EXTENDS OUT INTO NORTHERN LAKE MI. LIGHT SNOW HAS               
DEVELOPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST                   
AREA...WITH 1-2SM VSBYS COMMON. SNOW/PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS              
MAIN CONCERN.                                                                   
AN EARLIER UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF SNOW            
IN A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 18Z NAM AND 21Z RUC                 
BRING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER            
MI... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TVC/APN LINE. THE NEW 00Z NAM              
HAS SHIFTED PRECIP NORTHWARD (LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY). UPSTREAM RADAR            
TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS...WITH THE BEST                
RETURN UPSTREAM TARGETING CENTRAL LOWER MI...ALONG THE LATITUDE OF              
CENTRAL/NORTHERN SAGINAW BAY.                                                   
AM REALLY WRESTLING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR CURRENT                     
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WHETHER OR NOT WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE            
TIPP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. AXIS OF MAX 700-600MB 2-D FGEN RUNS FROM             
TVC TO APN LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY. MAX Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER COVERS NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT AND             
VERY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. CONCEPTUALLY...IT             
SHOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR HEAVY SNOW TO GET NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL                
FGEN MAX. IF THE 00Z NAM HAD LINED UP WITH THE 18Z RUN...I WOULD                
HAVE LOWERED THE TIPP OF THE MITT TO AN ADVISORY. BUT THE 00Z NAM               
STILL CRANKS OUT A HALF INCH OF LIQUID QPF NEAR BOYNE CITY AND                  
INDIAN RIVER. MY CONFIDENCE IS SHAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE                 
HEADLINES AS IS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME E-W BANDING GETTING ORGANIZED            
JUST NORTH OF THE OFFICE IN THE LAST HOUR.                                      
THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT LOOKS QUITE GOOD...WITH             
A MAX OF 6 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55...DWINDLING TO 2-3 INCHES             
IN EASTERN UPPER. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS (INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS                
NEAR LAKE HURON FROM HARRISVILLE SOUTHWARD...DECREASING ALONG M-72              
WEST OF GRAYLING). THIS REFLECTS A SLIGHT REORIENTATION OF THE MAX              
SNOWFALL TO A WSW/ENE AXIS. BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.                               
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND                            
TUESDAY...LOOKING LIKE PERHAPS A COUPLE HOUR BREAK IN THE                       
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AS WAA REGIME KICKS EAST AND BEFORE            
DEFORMATION AND FGEN PROCESSES GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER DURING THE                
AFTERNOON. USING THE HIGHLY CONSISTENT ECMWF GUIDANCE (HAS NOT                  
WAVERED IN THE LAST 6 RUNS OR SO) FOR DYNAMICS PLACEMENT...LOOKING              
LIKE ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF                
MODERATE...TO OCCASIONALLY...HEAVY SNOW. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...HARD             
TO TRULY ASCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ENHANCING SLANTWISE                       
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GIVING THE LIMITED RESOLUTION AVAILABLE WITH                
ECMWF GRAPHICS. STILL...USING THE NAM-WRF AS SOMEWHAT A PROXY (JUST             
SHIFTING EVERYTHING A LITTLE NORTH) DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS                      
POTENTIAL...WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY CENTERED ABOVE MAX FGEN                   
PROCESSES.  IN ADDITION...AS 850MB TEMPERATURE DROP BACK INTO THE               
HIGH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...COULD SEE                
SOME NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE ENHANCEMENT KICK IN. PUTTING THIS                     
ALTOGETHER...LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR NORTHERN                  
LOWER...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN UPPER.                                   
NOW...FOR THE HEADLINES: UPGRADING CURRENT WATCH BASICALLY A                    
NO-BRAINIER...STARTING AT 00Z THIS EVENING AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z              
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...WILL RUN WITH A WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY FOR THE SAME TIME...WITH THE BELIEF BETTER SNOW WILL STAY              
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF M-28. AS ALWAYS...A LITTLE BUFFER ZONES              
AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TIMING...WITH BETTER SNOW PROBABLY HOLDING OFF              
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND SNOW TAPERING OFF BEFORE 06Z                       
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
MSB                                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEADLINE SNOW PRODUCING STORM                 
SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY NE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY                
EVENING...WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TRAILING OFF QUICKLY W-E DURING            
THE EVENING. THINKING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES              
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. IN ITS WAKE...NNW LOW LEVEL FORECAST TO                 
DEVELOP WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN SPILLING INTO THE REGION AND H8              
TEMPS HEADING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE TEENS BELOW 0C DURING THE NIGHT.            
BUT DESPITE THE INCREASING LAKE INSTABILITY...NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE              
FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH STRONG QG-DOWNWARD MOTION                    
DOMINATING/INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING IN CHECK BLO 800 MB/AND A                
FAIRLY DRY WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.                    
NONETHELESS...MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF LAKE                
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY ACROSS THE FAVORED NNW FLOW AREAS               
(I.E. GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION) BY VIRTUE OF THE GOOD INSTABILITY              
AND INCREASING SNOW-WATER RATIOS TO NEAR 20:1 OR BETTER. WHAT LAKE              
EFFECT REMAINS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND GET SHUNTED             
INTO THE TIP TO THE MITT/STRAITS AREA AS FLOW WEAKENS AND ULTIMATELY            
BACKS SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                                                            
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...PERHAPS A BREAK FROM               
THE COLD/SNOWY PATTERN OF LATE? MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE             
IDEA OF A SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE CURRENT HEMISPHERIC            
4 WAVE CONFIGURATION...TO SOMETHING THAT RESEMBLES A 3 WAVE                     
CONFIGURATION. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LONGWAVE               
TROUGH THAT HAS SAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR SOME TIME SHIFTS                 
TOWARD THE WEST COAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN            
CONUS/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THIS NEW PATTERN ALSO PLACES THE            
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE STORM TRACK AS SW FLOW ALOFT AND A               
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SO...ALTHOUGH A               
TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY              
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD...SETUP LENDS ITSELF TO STORM                 
SYSTEMS TRAVELLING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL                
THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH                 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE WAY. HAVE JUST SNOW AS               
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH COLDER AIR NOT FAR OFF...BUT WE COULD RUN             
INTO SOME MIXED PRECIP ISSUES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1000 PM/                                                   
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN                  
KANSAS LIFTS TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY EVENING. ONGOING SOUTHERLY             
WINDS WILL TURN NNE AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND                    
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUE NIGHT.                                       
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OF THE HURON SIDE...WHERE               
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS WEAKENING. HAVE ISSUED NEW ONES ON THE LAKE MI                
SIDE...WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                 
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY WELL BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. BUT                
HEY...IT/S DECEMBER.                                                            
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 622 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS                             
SNOW IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI...WELL AHEAD OF A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN KS. SNOW ONSET WILL BE SLOWER THAN                   
EARLIER FORECAST...BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z.               
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF LIFR POSSIBLE                 
(ESPECIALLY AT TVC). THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO              
EAST VERY LATE ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TVC WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY                
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THANKS TO NORTH WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI.                         
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                          
     MIZ016>036-041-042.                                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ008-015.           
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR           
     LMZ344>346.                                                                
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
842 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES               
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WITH LEAD WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH            
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE                   
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED...THERE WON`T BE A WELL-DEFINED                         
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A GENERAL LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS             
THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE UPPER                
LAKES. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SOME LES IS OCCURRING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
OVER THE SE FCST AREA IN LIGHT SRLY FLOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM                    
KGRB/KAPX SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO                
SUPPORT LES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BRING -SN NE INTO THE FCST AREA            
TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA             
OF -SN FROM NEBRASKA TO CNTRL/SRN WI IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20KT/25KT                 
S/SW WINDS AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY AT SLATER IA. SO ASCENT IS NOT             
PARTICULARLY STRONG. TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER VEER                
SLIGHTLY...CAUSING ASCENT TO SHIFT MORE E THAN N...AND THE NRN                  
PORTION OF ASCENT WEAKENS AS WINDS CROSS ISOBARS AT A DECREASING                
ANGLE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL THEN LIFT NE TO THE LWR                 
LAKES REGION BY LATE TUE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS WELL-DEFINED               
NOW AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA...ALL MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE WEAKENING            
AS IT HEADS NE INTO INCREASING CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. ACCOMPANYING              
SFC LOW ALSO WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...             
LARGER SCALE TROF TAKES ON AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. ALL OF THIS             
WILL CONSPIRE TO WORK AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR                  
DESPITE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NE TO PROVIDE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SO...WHILE THE NRN EDGE OF SNOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA...SEEMS               
REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE                
LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A TREND FROM THE 12Z MODELS                 
FOR LESS PCPN. EVEN WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS...AN ADVY IS STILL                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.                
EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN              
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS WELL ALOFT...ROUGHLY                    
10-15KFT AGL. THIS MAY WORK TO DECREASE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WITH              
ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.              
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES (00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z TUE)             
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE                
CITY OF MENOMINEE. IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS OF LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUE IN              
UPCOMING RUNS...AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE SCALED BACK FURTHER AND ADVY             
MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED.                                                       
ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL GET INVOLVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR                
LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS WINDS BECOME N TO NE. WITH LITTLE OVERLAP              
OF NRLY WINDS AND DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...LAKE INVOLVEMENT WILL             
BE LIMITED. SO...AWAY FROM THE ADVY AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                  
TONIGHT THRU TUE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.                                 
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AT 00Z WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED            
FROM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NRN MEXICO.                 
MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE                   
TROUGH...WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AROUND 06Z WED...THEN                  
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z THU. THE PROGRESSION OF             
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI              
INTO SE LOWER MI SUPPRESSED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE. THIS                 
MEANS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUE SHOULD SHIFT             
EAST TUE EVENING. KEPT IN SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG LAKE MI IN THE                 
EVENING FOR TIMING ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TUE NIGHT INTO               
WED MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAUSED BY COLD               
AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO                
DROP TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z WED...DEFINITELY SUFFICENT FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT. MOISTURE DOES DEPART FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...              
AND AFTER 06Z WED WHEN THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST...INVERSIONS WILL              
LOWER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. IN                    
ADDITION...WINDS ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SHIFTING...WHICH WILL PREVENT              
ANY ONE SPOT FROM STAYING IN A BAND. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFLY SNOW               
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR LAKE                       
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKE EFFECT WILL            
LIKELY DIMINISH MORE WED MORNING AS FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC WITH A              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. IN FACT...SOUTH CENTRAL             
AND PERHAPS EVEN MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WED MORNING.              
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW             
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MARCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MN. THIS IS A            
BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND REALLY LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAYS 12Z                
NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. NOW ALL THE MODELS ARE ON                 
BOARD WITH THE FASTER SCENARIO...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME -SN                 
ACROSS MN...NW WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...DEPENDING                     
ON HOW QUICK THE DRY AIR EXITS. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR             
CWA...THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT. STAYED TOWARD THE                
COOLER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO BELOW AT NIGHT BECAUSE OF BREEZY               
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...MODELS BRING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...THEN LIFT IT TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON THU.                
MUCH OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM ADVECTION...WHICH WILL              
HELP BRING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER            
MOST AREAS AND CAN ENVISION RAISING THEM TO CATEGORICAL IF THE 00Z              
MODEL CYCLE TONIGHT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT...THE PROBLEM            
IS SOME LACK OF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AN             
INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE EXISTS A                      
POSSIBLITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR                 
EASTERN CWA. LATE WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION COMES IN AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI. IT                   
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED AFTER 06Z               
FOR WESTERN UPPER MI. FOR THU...WITH THE CLIPPER HEADING OFF TO THE             
NE...COLD ADVECTION GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN DEAL.               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI. WIND FLOW            
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF               
THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE.            
SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY            
WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND. REGARDING TEMPS...RAISED THEM QUITE A BIT              
WED NIGHT TO A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
PCPN HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB THU MORNING                
BEFORE MORE COLD AIR COMES IN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EITHER HOLD                   
READINGS STEADY OR HAVE THEM FALL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO                 
THUS TEMPS.                                                                     
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG                  
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT IS THAT             
BY 12Z SUN...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SW. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE                
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GETTING OUT INTO SUN AND MON SINCE SW FLOW             
IS USUALLY PRETTY ACTIVE. FOR THU NIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD                 
AIR WILL ENTER THE CWA BEHIND THURSDAYS CLIPPER...MEANING SOME MORE             
LAKE EFFECT FOR WEST AND NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z FRI. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS              
ON FRI...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. THE RETURN               
FLOW COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH THE             
LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS                     
INDICATED TO HEAD TOWARDS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DVPA FORCING              
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A              
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP...GIVEN THAT                 
850-LAKE SFC DELTA TS ARE 11-14C. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS              
AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER SAT...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.               
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO BY SAT EVENING. THE 00Z                        
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS LOW NE ACROSS                
UPPER MI LATE SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER                    
BRINGING UP THIS LOW...NOT HAVING IT CROSS UNTIL MON. THE REASON FOR            
THE SLOWER GFS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE CLIPPER ON SAT WHERE IT IS            
QUITE A BIT DEEPER. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PROVIDE NO HELP EITHER IN                 
DETERMINING WHICH SCENARIO MIGHT BE CORRECT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT                
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL ENTRAIN ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO                  
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD A WET SNOW...WHICH COULD ALSO CHANGE              
TO RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE                 
WHICH LEANS A BIT MORE TO THE ECMWF IDEA...BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FORECAST               
WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON FOR SYNOPTIC                
INDUCED SNOW...EITHER FROM WARM ADVECTION OR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS            
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUN. WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                         
12Z GFS CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...GIVING A LITTLE MORE                  
CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A BIT               
CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AS WELL. DUE TO ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE                  
SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAR OUT THE SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON IS IN                       
TIME...WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW FOR RAISING TEMPS MORE AND                      
MENTIONING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW EVENT IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.                
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AMEND KSAW TO RAISE CONDITIONS BACK UP INTO MVFR            
CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE                  
ACCUMULATING SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH. ONSET OF LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNE FLOW COULD BRING IN SOME IFR              
VSBYS ON TUE.                                                                   
THE ONLY SNOW KCMX WILL GET IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS NRLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE               
SOUTH. NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUE BUT INCREASING DRIER AIR FROM             
THE NORTH WILL KEEP LES LIGHT AND THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY                
WILL BE MVFR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES TROF ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DRIFT S TONIGHT. LOW PRES             
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE TROF...REACHING               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO               
BECOME N AND RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. SINCE LOW IS                     
WEAKENING...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND            
25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT TUE MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KT TUE EVENING ON            
LAKE SUPERIOR...IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY WED                 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...CAUSING SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30                
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THU AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25             
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF                
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS            
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE TO             
POSSIBLY 30 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                     
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NE AT UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT OVER                   
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVY 7 PM EST/6PM CST/ TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/               
     TUE MIZ012>014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES               
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WITH LEAD WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH            
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE                   
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED...THERE WON`T BE A WELL-DEFINED                         
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A GENERAL LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS             
THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE UPPER                
LAKES. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SOME LES IS OCCURRING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
OVER THE SE FCST AREA IN LIGHT SRLY FLOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM                    
KGRB/KAPX SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO                
SUPPORT LES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BRING -SN NE INTO THE FCST AREA            
TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA             
OF -SN FROM NEBRASKA TO CNTRL/SRN WI IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20KT/25KT                 
S/SW WINDS AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY AT SLATER IA. SO ASCENT IS NOT             
PARTICULARLY STRONG. TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER VEER                
SLIGHTLY...CAUSING ASCENT TO SHIFT MORE E THAN N...AND THE NRN                  
PORTION OF ASCENT WEAKENS AS WINDS CROSS ISOBARS AT A DECREASING                
ANGLE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL THEN LIFT NE TO THE LWR                 
LAKES REGION BY LATE TUE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS WELL-DEFINED               
NOW AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA...ALL MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE WEAKENING            
AS IT HEADS NE INTO INCREASING CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. ACCOMPANYING              
SFC LOW ALSO WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...             
LARGER SCALE TROF TAKES ON AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. ALL OF THIS             
WILL CONSPIRE TO WORK AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR                  
DESPITE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NE TO PROVIDE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SO...WHILE THE NRN EDGE OF SNOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA...SEEMS               
REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE                
LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A TREND FROM THE 12Z MODELS                 
FOR LESS PCPN. EVEN WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS...AN ADVY IS STILL                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.                
EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN              
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS WELL ALOFT...ROUGHLY                    
10-15KFT AGL. THIS MAY WORK TO DECREASE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WITH              
ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.              
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES (00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z TUE)             
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE                
CITY OF MENOMINEE. IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS OF LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUE IN              
UPCOMING RUNS...AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE SCALED BACK FURTHER AND ADVY             
MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED.                                                       
ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL GET INVOLVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR                
LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS WINDS BECOME N TO NE. WITH LITTLE OVERLAP              
OF NRLY WINDS AND DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...LAKE INVOLVEMENT WILL             
BE LIMITED. SO...AWAY FROM THE ADVY AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                  
TONIGHT THRU TUE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.                                 
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AT 00Z WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED            
FROM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NRN MEXICO.                 
MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE                   
TROUGH...WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AROUND 06Z WED...THEN                  
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z THU. THE PROGRESSION OF             
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI              
INTO SE LOWER MI SUPPRESSED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE. THIS                 
MEANS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUE SHOULD SHIFT             
EAST TUE EVENING. KEPT IN SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG LAKE MI IN THE                 
EVENING FOR TIMING ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TUE NIGHT INTO               
WED MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAUSED BY COLD               
AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO                
DROP TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z WED...DEFINITELY SUFFICENT FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT. MOISTURE DOES DEPART FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...              
AND AFTER 06Z WED WHEN THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST...INVERSIONS WILL              
LOWER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. IN                    
ADDITION...WINDS ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SHIFTING...WHICH WILL PREVENT              
ANY ONE SPOT FROM STAYING IN A BAND. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFLY SNOW               
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR LAKE                       
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKE EFFECT WILL            
LIKELY DIMINISH MORE WED MORNING AS FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC WITH A              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. IN FACT...SOUTH CENTRAL             
AND PERHAPS EVEN MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WED MORNING.              
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW             
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MARCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MN. THIS IS A            
BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND REALLY LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAYS 12Z                
NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. NOW ALL THE MODELS ARE ON                 
BOARD WITH THE FASTER SCENARIO...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME -SN                 
ACROSS MN...NW WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...DEPENDING                     
ON HOW QUICK THE DRY AIR EXITS. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR             
CWA...THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT. STAYED TOWARD THE                
COOLER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO BELOW AT NIGHT BECAUSE OF BREEZY               
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...MODELS BRING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...THEN LIFT IT TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON THU.                
MUCH OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM ADVECTION...WHICH WILL              
HELP BRING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER            
MOST AREAS AND CAN ENVISION RAISING THEM TO CATEGORICAL IF THE 00Z              
MODEL CYCLE TONIGHT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT...THE PROBLEM            
IS SOME LACK OF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AN             
INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE EXISTS A                      
POSSIBLITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR                 
EASTERN CWA. LATE WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION COMES IN AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI. IT                   
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED AFTER 06Z               
FOR WESTERN UPPER MI. FOR THU...WITH THE CLIPPER HEADING OFF TO THE             
NE...COLD ADVECTION GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN DEAL.               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI. WIND FLOW            
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF               
THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE.            
SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY            
WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND. REGARDING TEMPS...RAISED THEM QUITE A BIT              
WED NIGHT TO A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
PCPN HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB THU MORNING                
BEFORE MORE COLD AIR COMES IN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EITHER HOLD                   
READINGS STEADY OR HAVE THEM FALL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO                 
THUS TEMPS.                                                                     
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG                  
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT IS THAT             
BY 12Z SUN...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SW. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE                
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GETTING OUT INTO SUN AND MON SINCE SW FLOW             
IS USUALLY PRETTY ACTIVE. FOR THU NIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD                 
AIR WILL ENTER THE CWA BEHIND THURSDAYS CLIPPER...MEANING SOME MORE             
LAKE EFFECT FOR WEST AND NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z FRI. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS              
ON FRI...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. THE RETURN               
FLOW COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH THE             
LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS                     
INDICATED TO HEAD TOWARDS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DVPA FORCING              
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A              
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP...GIVEN THAT                 
850-LAKE SFC DELTA TS ARE 11-14C. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS              
AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER SAT...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.               
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO BY SAT EVENING. THE 00Z                        
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS LOW NE ACROSS                
UPPER MI LATE SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER                    
BRINGING UP THIS LOW...NOT HAVING IT CROSS UNTIL MON. THE REASON FOR            
THE SLOWER GFS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE CLIPPER ON SAT WHERE IT IS            
QUITE A BIT DEEPER. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PROVIDE NO HELP EITHER IN                 
DETERMINING WHICH SCENARIO MIGHT BE CORRECT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT                
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL ENTRAIN ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO                  
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD A WET SNOW...WHICH COULD ALSO CHANGE              
TO RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE                 
WHICH LEANS A BIT MORE TO THE ECMWF IDEA...BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FORECAST               
WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON FOR SYNOPTIC                
INDUCED SNOW...EITHER FROM WARM ADVECTION OR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS            
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUN. WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                         
12Z GFS CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...GIVING A LITTLE MORE                  
CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A BIT               
CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AS WELL. DUE TO ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE                  
SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAR OUT THE SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON IS IN                       
TIME...WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW FOR RAISING TEMPS MORE AND                      
MENTIONING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN HRS AT KCMX AND FOR A               
FEW MORE HRS AT KSAW AS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE S MAY SLIP BACK N BY             
LATE AFTN. AS CYCLONIC NERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRES            
ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS...PLAN ON                
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME -SN TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE                
FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO             
THE TRACK OF THE LOW/DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPERIENCE A MORE FAVORABLE            
UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN HOLD ON THRU THE             
END OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS.                 
BEING FARTHER FROM LOW TRACK AND LACKING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPING                  
WIND...CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON`T FALL ANY LOWER THAN MVFR AT KCMX               
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES TROF ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DRIFT S TONIGHT. LOW PRES             
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE TROF...REACHING               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO               
BECOME N AND RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. SINCE LOW IS                     
WEAKENING...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND            
25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT TUE MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KT TUE EVENING ON            
LAKE SUPERIOR...IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY WED                 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...CAUSING SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30                
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THU AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25             
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF                
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS            
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE TO             
POSSIBLY 30 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                     
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NE AT UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT OVER                   
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVY 7 PM EST/6PM CST/ TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/               
     TUE MIZ012>014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 411 AM EST                                               
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON               
BAY EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW                   
ENGLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN                   
PACIFIC IS MOVING TROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE             
BLANKETING EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ONTARIO AS A LOW CONTINUES TO              
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTH                  
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE              
OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WARMER GULF AIR INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 411 AM EST                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE THE                   
MONTANA TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO LOOKING               
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN DELTA-T`S ONLY AROUND 15C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY             
SO NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. STILL WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF Q-VECTOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SYSTEM TYPE SNOWS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO THE SOUTHERN U.P. MOSTLY LIKELY TO                   
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY.              
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALSO SUGGEST A LES BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS             
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S.                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE            
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
EJECTED OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW            
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SHIFT               
INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT                
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND WISCONSIN.                    
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO                 
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL. PLAN TO GO WITH A WW ADVISORY FOR             
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                 
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER THE              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE             
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO MINNESOTA CAUSING THE DELTA-T             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 20F. THUS WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE...CONDITIONS LOOK             
FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL            
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTH WIND OVER THE               
CWA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE DELTA-T`S             
OF AROUND 24C. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND              
THE LOW LEVEL DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO LES OVER THE AREA.            
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LOWEST                     
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5K TO 4K SO WILL KEEP LES LIKELY IN              
THE GRIDS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY              
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON                      
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE                
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT                     
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DELTA-T`S                 
AROUND 20C SUGGESTION KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY LES AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE ANOTHER LOW SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE                        
AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T`S AROUND 16C.              
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING RIDGE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS                 
THROUGH. LES WILL END AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND                      
SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SNOWFALL WILL              
REMAIN LIMITED. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS PER ECMWF/UKMET ON               
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN GENERATING MORE               
LES.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN HRS AT KCMX AND FOR A               
FEW MORE HRS AT KSAW AS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE S MAY SLIP BACK N BY             
LATE AFTN. AS CYCLONIC NERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRES            
ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS...PLAN ON                
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME -SN TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE FROM           
MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW/DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPERIENCE A MORE FAVORABLE                
UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN HOLD ON THRU THE             
END OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS.                 
BEING FARTHER FROM LOW TRACK AND LACKING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPING                  
WIND...CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON`T FALL ANY LOWER THAN MVFR AT KCMX               
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTH WINDS WILL            
REACH 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY            
NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF WITH            
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR/INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. AS THE HIGH MOVES             
TO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH              
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVY 7 PM EST/6PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST/                 
     10 AM CST/ TUE MIZ012>014.                                                 
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON               
BAY EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW                   
ENGLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN                   
PACIFIC IS MOVING TROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE             
BLANKETING EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ONTARIO AS A LOW CONTINUES TO              
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTH                  
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE              
OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WARMER GULF AIR INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE THE                   
MONTANA TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO LOOKING               
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN DELTA-T`S ONLY AROUND 15C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY             
SO NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. STILL WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF Q-VECTOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SYSTEM TYPE SNOWS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO THE SOUTHERN U.P. MOSTLY LIKELY TO                   
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY.              
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALSO SUGGEST A LES BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS             
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S.                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE            
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
EJECTED OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW            
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SHIFT               
INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT                
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND WISCONSIN.                    
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO                 
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL. PLAN TO GO WITH A WW ADVISORY FOR             
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                 
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER THE              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE             
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO MINNESOTA CAUSING THE DELTA-T             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 20F. THUS WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE...CONDITIONS LOOK             
FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL            
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTH WIND OVER THE               
CWA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE DELTA-T`S             
OF AROUND 24C. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND              
THE LOW LEVEL DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO LES OVER THE AREA.            
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LOWEST                     
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5K TO 4K SO WILL KEEP LES LIKELY IN              
THE GRIDS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY              
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON                      
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE                
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT                     
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DELTA-T`S                 
AROUND 20C SUGGESTION KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY LES AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE ANOTHER LOW SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE                        
AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T`S AROUND 16C.              
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING RIDGE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS                 
THROUGH. LES WILL END AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND                      
SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SNOWFALL WILL              
REMAIN LIMITED. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS PER ECMWF/UKMET ON               
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN GENERATING MORE               
LES.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER WEAK RDG HAS SCOURED OUT LO CLD...SO EXPECT            
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY AT BOTH SAW/CMX. AS               
CYC ENE DVLPS TNGT AHEAD OF LO PRES ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER GRT              
LKS FM THE PLAINS...PLAN ON THICKENING CLDS AND SOME SN TO DVLP.                
CIGS/VSBY WL SLIDE TO MVFR THEN IFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHICH             
WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LO/DEEPER MSTR AND EXPERIENCE A                
MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTH WINDS WILL            
REACH 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY            
NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF WITH            
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR/INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. AS THE HIGH MOVES             
TO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH              
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST/4PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON               
      TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
411 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON               
BAY EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW                   
ENGLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN                   
PACIFIC IS MOVING TROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE             
BLANKETING EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ONTARIO AS A LOW CONTINUES TO              
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTH                  
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE              
OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WARMER GULF AIR INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE THE                   
MONTANA TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO LOOKING               
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN DELTA-T`S ONLY AROUND 15C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY             
SO NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. STILL WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF Q-VECTOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SYSTEM TYPE SNOWS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO THE SOUTHERN U.P. MOSTLY LIKELY TO                   
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY.              
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALSO SUGGEST A LES BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS             
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S.                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE            
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
EJECTED OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW            
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SHIFT               
INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT                
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND WISCONSIN.                    
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO                 
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL. PLAN TO GO WITH A WW ADVISORY FOR             
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                 
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER THE              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE             
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO MINNESOTA CAUSING THE DELTA-T             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 20F. THUS WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE...CONDITIONS LOOK             
FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL            
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTH WIND OVER THE               
CWA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE DELTA-T`S             
OF AROUND 24C. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND              
THE LOW LEVEL DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO LES OVER THE AREA.            
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LOWEST                     
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5K TO 4K SO WILL KEEP LES LIKELY IN              
THE GRIDS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY              
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON                      
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE                
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT                     
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DELTA-T`S                 
AROUND 20C SUGGESTION KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY LES AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE ANOTHER LOW SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE                        
AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T`S AROUND 16C.              
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING RIDGE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS                 
THROUGH. LES WILL END AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND                      
SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SNOWFALL WILL              
REMAIN LIMITED. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS PER ECMWF/UKMET ON               
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN GENERATING MORE               
LES.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE             
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS                
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF WAA SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM               
THE WEST LATE MON...EVENTUALLY LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR AT KSAW               
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO IFR AT KCMX MON EVENING. KCMX WILL FARTHER               
AWAY FROM BEST MOISTENING/LIFT SO THUS IFR CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD              
BE MORE TRANSIENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTH WINDS WILL            
REACH 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY            
NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF WITH            
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR/INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. AS THE HIGH MOVES             
TO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH              
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST/4PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON               
      TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1221 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE             
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS                
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF WAA SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM               
THE WEST LATE MON...EVENTUALLY LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR AT KSAW               
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO IFR AT KCMX MON EVENING. KCMX WILL FARTHER               
AWAY FROM BEST MOISTENING/LIFT SO THUS IFR CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD              
BE MORE TRANSIENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
417 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1236 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 952 AM)                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
952 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SC CIGS TO GRDLY ERODE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/            
DRY AIRMASS FM THE W THAT IS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB. MVFR CIGS WL                
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WLY WIND COMPONENT.               
CLDS WL THICKEN WITH CIGS FALLING TO HI END MVFR RANGE WITH APRCH OF            
WEAK LO PRES TROF TNGT. SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO THE             
S...SUSPECT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WL NOT SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY             
FOR ANY SGNFT SN/VSBY RESTRICTION AT EITHER SAW OR CMX.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPEGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVIALIABLE FETCH                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRETIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPEGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURING            
ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO WI                
BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.               
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS BECOME               
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. H85               
TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE              
WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH                 
EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING LAND                   
BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FCST A            
DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL SAY            
THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR MI...AND            
SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT PREFERRED AS            
SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO THE LWR MI               
SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVR FAR SE            
CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO               
LUCE.                                                                           
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-085.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1218 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALGER                
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND PUT UP WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO SUNDAY                
MORNING AS STRONG NNW WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME WITH                
BUILDING RDG FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL CONV TO FOCUS            
HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO THESE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND            
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING               
AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.                                             
ALSO DROPPED LES ADVISORY FOR BARAGA AS DRIER AIR HAS REALLY                    
DIMINISHED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
REST OF FCST STILL OF TRACK SO DIDN`T MAKE ANY OTHER BIG                        
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1005 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SNOW HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR               
SWRN ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 2 MILES AT SEVERAL               
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THEREFORE HAVE                      
INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS             
OUR SRN TIER OF ZONES FROM PINE COUNTY EAST TO PRICE COUNTY. THE                
HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PRICE COUNTY WHERE THE                
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM WRAPS              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY DISINTEGRATE                   
SINCE 09Z. STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND               
FLURRIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                   
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RUC13...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE              
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES                
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST A WINTER                  
WEATHER ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF MODEL TRENDS AND                         
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IN                       
APPRECIABLE QPF.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES INCLUDE WANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE                 
NORTH SHORE AND SNOW EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN               
TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.                              
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY RATHER STEADILY               
SINCE ABOUT 07Z. CEILINGS AND VISBYS HAVE RISEN AT NEARBY ONSHORE               
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING SILVER BAY AND TWO HARBORS...WITH JUST                    
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. STILL...SNOW WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1                 
MILE WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GRAND MARAIS. WILL LIKELY LET                     
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6AM...ASSUMING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. THE                    
NAM12 SHOWS THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH               
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL                 
RH. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SFC-85H WINDS TURN MORE               
SOUTHEASTERLY.                                                                  
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                     
WORKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS               
OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER...INCLUDING TIMING. WE STILL BELIEVE THE                  
GREATEST PWATS...FGEN...AND OMEGA WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR                   
AREA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH                
2 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER                 
JET STREAK WILL ALSO PASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                           
TODAY...ALSO SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW                     
SHOWERS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                            
MORNING...SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS DULUTH BY 18Z...AND THEN QUICKLY                
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NW WI. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MOST LIKELY IN OUR FAR                
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                            
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY PERSIST IN NW WISC...ESPECIALLY SAWYER AND               
PRICE COUNTIES...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY                        
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP                          
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING.                                                   
FOR TUESDAY...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS CAA RETURNS                  
AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO -20C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z.               
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG               
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING               
AND PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.                          
.EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                    
MODELS ARE AGAIN CONFLICTING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                
FROM RUN TO RUN RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF LARGE               
SCALE FEATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN                
LAKES WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH SLOW WARMING               
ALOFT...SHORT WAVES AND CLIPPERS FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING LIGHT                  
SNOW RATHER THAN ISOLATED FLURRIES. A SERIES OF BITTER COLD HIGH                
PRESSURE AREAS FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SUCH HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                 
TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE COASTAL NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVER                  
OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND DOWN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND               
A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER                      
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ALONG THE SAME TRACK...REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR                         
AREA...WITH COLD AIR CAUSING MORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE                 
WISCONSIN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HUGE COLD               
OUTBREAK POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS COULD               
RESULT IN A COLORADO LOW AND SOME IMPORTANT SNOW NEXT SUNDAY                    
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNW SHWRS WL END AS CONDS SLOLY IPV FM MVFR TO VFR UNDER PRSTNT                 
BKN/OVC SC THS MRNG. CONDS WL DTRT TO MVFR...THEN IFR S OF                      
DLH...IN SNW FM S TO N AS OVRRNG SNW SPRDS NWD INTO OUR AREA THS                
AFTN AND EVE. SNW SHUD END FM W TO E WITH CONDS RMNG MVFR UNDER                 
LO CLDS LT TNGT. LK EFCT SNW SHWRS WL CONT ALG THE WI SHORE OF LK               
SUPR ...WITH PSBL MVLIFR CONDS IN SM SHWRS THRUT TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  18   9  15  -8 /  60  50  10  10                                           
INL  17   0   6 -15 /  30  10  10  20                                           
BRD  22   8  14  -1 /  80  50  10  10                                           
HYR  22  16  20  -6 /  70  70  40  10                                           
ASX  22  18  20   0 /  50  60  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR PINE.                   
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BURNETT.                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     TUESDAY FOR SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM CST              
     TUESDAY FOR PRICE.                                                         
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BERDES/BETTWY                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
617 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY DISINTEGRATE                   
SINCE 09Z. STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND               
FLURRIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                   
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RUC13...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE              
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES                
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST A WINTER                  
WEATHER ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF MODEL TRENDS AND                         
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IN                       
APPRECIABLE QPF.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES INCLUDE WANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE                 
NORTH SHORE AND SNOW EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN               
TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.                              
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY RATHER STEADILY               
SINCE ABOUT 07Z. CEILINGS AND VISBYS HAVE RISEN AT NEARBY ONSHORE               
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING SILVER BAY AND TWO HARBORS...WITH JUST                    
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. STILL...SNOW WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1                 
MILE WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GRAND MARAIS. WILL LIKELY LET                     
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6AM...ASSUMING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. THE                    
NAM12 SHOWS THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH               
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL                 
RH. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SFC-85H WINDS TURN MORE               
SOUTHEASTERLY.                                                                  
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                     
WORKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS               
OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER...INCLUDING TIMING. WE STILL BELIEVE THE                  
GREATEST PWATS...FGEN...AND OMEGA WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR                   
AREA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH                
2 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER                 
JET STREAK WILL ALSO PASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                           
TODAY...ALSO SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW                     
SHOWERS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                            
MORNING...SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS DULUTH BY 18Z...AND THEN QUICKLY                
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NW WI. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MOST LIKELY IN OUR FAR                
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                            
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY PERSIST IN NW WISC...ESPECIALLY SAWYER AND               
PRICE COUNTIES...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY                        
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP                          
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING.                                                   
FOR TUESDAY...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS CAA RETURNS                  
AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO -20C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z.               
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG               
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING               
AND PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.                          
..EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                   
MODELS ARE AGAIN CONFLICTING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                
FROM RUN TO RUN RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF LARGE               
SCALE FEATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN                
LAKES WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH SLOW WARMING               
ALOFT...SHORT WAVES AND CLIPPERS FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING LIGHT                  
SNOW RATHER THAN ISOLATED FLURRIES. A SERIES OF BITTER COLD HIGH                
PRESSURE AREAS FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SUCH HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                 
TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE COASTAL NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVER                  
OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND DOWN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND               
A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER                      
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ALONG THE SAME TRACK...REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR                         
AREA...WITH COLD AIR CAUSING MORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE                 
WISCONSIN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HUGE COLD               
OUTBREAK POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS COULD               
RESULT IN A COLORADO LOW AND SOME IMPORTANT SNOW NEXT SUNDAY                    
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNW SHWRS WL END AS CONDS SLOLY IPV FM MVFR TO VFR UNDER PRSTNT                 
BKN/OVC SC THS MRNG. CONDS WL DTRT TO MVFR...THEN IFR S OF                      
DLH...IN SNW FM S TO N AS OVRRNG SNW SPRDS NWD INTO OUR AREA THS                
AFTN AND EVE. SNW SHUD END FM W TO E WITH CONDS RMNG MVFR UNDER                 
LO CLDS LT TNGT. LK EFCT SNW SHWRS WL CONT ALG THE WI SHORE OF LK               
SUPR ...WITH PSBL MVLIFR CONDS IN SM SHWRS THRUT TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  18   5  13  -8 /  60  40  10  10                                           
INL  17  -3   8 -15 /  30  10  10  20                                           
BRD  20   8  14  -1 /  70  30  10  10                                           
HYR  22   8  14  -6 /  70  70  40  10                                           
ASX  22  12  16   0 /  60  70  60  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY/EOM                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                                
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER                 
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING AND            
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLE            
UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SNW SPRDG INTO WC WI WITH A DMNSHG TREND NOTED            
IN W MN.  WDSPRD SNW WL GIVE EACH TAF SITE ABT A 4 HR PRD OF VSBY               
DOWN TO AOB 1SM WITH ARND AN INCH OF ACCUM. FLUFFY NATURE OF SNW AND            
SM HEAVIER BANDS WL YIELD A FEW 2 INCH TOTALS.  LGT SNW WL LINGER               
FOR A FEW HRS AFT HEAVIER ACCUMULATING PRD.  MOIST LOW LVLS WL                  
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVRNITE. UPSTREAM VORT IN BC WL DIVE SE                
NEXT 24 HRS GENERATING ANOTHER SNW EVENT WITH NAM/NGM TRENDING                  
FARTHER N WHICH WUD PUT ACCUMULATING SNW AT MOST TAF SITES.  SRPD               
SNW INTO W MN TAF SITES BTWN 12Z AND 15Z AND 15Z TO 18Z RMDR SITES.             
NAM PROGGED SNDGS SHW SM POTENTIAL OF -ZL/-FZRG MAINLY RWF BY 12Z               
WITH NOSE ABV FRZG ARND 800 MB...A CONCERN FOR NXT SET OF                       
TAFS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
944 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...MOVED START TIME FOR WWA TO 18Z. LES PLUME HAS DEVELOPED              
WITH VIS LOWERING TO 1-2SM FROM TWM TO BFW. LATEST RUC13/NAM12                  
SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTH SHORE.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                   
..THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                  
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN                 
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN                        
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                  
...THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                 
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
..EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     MONDAY FOR NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN                            
     COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                    
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
607 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                                
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING         
DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                        
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING                
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE                 
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.                 
EXPECT ATTENDANT CIGS/VSBY/S TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH PERIODIC         
DIPS TO INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE MORE MODERATE SNOW BANDS.                
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL BETWEEN 15Z AND                         
23Z...ALTHOUGH POST-SNOWFALL MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST                      
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAXN AND KSTC. AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT                
AND LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS EXPERIENCED                    
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY                    
OCCUR...BUT CURRENT AREA OF EXPECTANCY IS SOUTH OF TAF SITES. LOW               
CLOUDS AND MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON                  
MONDAY...WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/JPR                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING         
DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                        
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING                
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE                 
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 600 AM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COLDER            
AIR THAT IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES GENLY ABV 10K AGL OVERNIGHT.              
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS THAT HAVE ADVANCED OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS               
WEAKEN AS MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS               
WILL LOWER IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF MN BY NOON AND OVER              
THE WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY              
LOWERING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES AND CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AGL. CEILINGS              
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR CONDS                                                  
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST TAF SITES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
117 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL                  
MOVE EAST AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY TO PUSH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED AT 1102 AM...SAT TRENDS SHOW AC DECK SPREADING BACK INTO                
NE PA...AND CLOSER INSPECTION OF RUC MID LVL RH DATA SUGGESTS                   
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN...WITH XCPTN            
OF NRN ONEIDA. GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. PREV BLO...                 
UPDATED AT 1005 AM...CRNT FCST ON TRACK. AC DECK HAS BEEN THINNING              
THIS MRNG WITH BREAKS ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES               
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS ACRS THE FINGER                  
LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER. MINOR TWEEKS TO MAX TEMPS. PREV BLO...                
JUST A VERY FEW WEAK LES PLUMES LEFT ATTM. WITH SFC HIPRES                      
BLDG...XPCT ALL ACTIVITY TO END SHRTLY. WAA WILL BEGIN ONLY LATE                
IN THE DAY...SO WILL XPCT ONLY A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS DESPITE                 
PTLY SUNNY SKIES. XPCT CI TO MVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE LRG DFRNCS IN THEIR SOLNS FOR THE UPCOMING               
EVENT. HWVR...BOTH NOW SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENISIS MON NGT AND                
EARLY TUE DVLPG LGT PCPN. WHILE FRCG IS FAIRLY STRONG...VERY DRY                
AIR WILL LIMIT THE QPF. MODELS ALSO AGREE TO PUSH A WRM SECTOR DRY              
SLOT INTO THE AREA TUE. DFRNCS DVLP LTR TUE AND WED AS THE GFS                  
DVLPS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOPRES AND HIGHER QPF...WHILE THE NAM                 
HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC WV. ECMWF SEEMS TO LEAN TWRDS THE                         
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND THE GFS TREND APPEARS TO BE TO WEAKEN THE                 
LOW. THE STRONGER GFS LOW HAS EFFECTS THU TOO WITH MORE CAA BHD                 
THE LOW. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE AND NUETRAL WV...AND GIVEN THE MODEL              
TREND...XPCT THE WEAKER SOLN IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THE SYSTEM.                 
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE ELCTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHGS TO THE FCST                 
FOR TUE NGT AND WED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF                 
THE SYSTEM. HWVR...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR MON NGT AND TUES                 
WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.                                                  
WITH THE APRCHG LOW...SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPS TRENDS WERE USED FOR               
THE GRIDS WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING MON AND TUE                 
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
UPDATED 115 PM...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING DURING               
THIS PD WITH HIGH AMPL TROF FORMING IN THE WEST...AND RIDGING FOR               
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GENERAL SWLY FLOW IN THE EAST. A LOW                   
CONFIDENCE FCST AS WE GO THROUGH THIS CHANGE...WITH PLENTY OF                   
SPREAD IN MED RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE BEST                 
MOVE ATTM IS TO FOLLOW THE HPC EXPERTS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. OVERALL              
SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW POTNL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DVLPG IN                 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THURS AND LIFTING NE THU NGT-FRI. WHAT...IF                  
ANY...IMPACT THIS WIL HAVE ON CNY/NEPA IS THE BIG STORY FOR THIS                
FCST PERIOD. GENERAL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE STORM TO                    
MOSTLY MISS US WIDE RIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW               
TO EXTEND BACK INTO NEPA AND SRN TIER NY FROM THURS PM-FRI NITE.                
06Z/12Z GFS AND DGEX WOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM A BIGGER DEAL FOR THE                
REGION BY BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND HALF A DAY SLOWER...BUT                 
THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM. ECMWF AND IT/S ENSEMBLES ARE                  
FAVORED AS USUAL.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW                
ALOFT. GENERALLY THIS IS A DRY PTTRN...HOWEVER ECMWF SHOWS AT                   
LEAST A COUPLE MINOR WAVES PSBLY BRINGING BRIEF SHOTS OF LGT                    
PRECIP TO THE AREA. WILL LEAN ON THE DRIER SIDE IN THIS PTTRN AT                
THAT TIME RANGE...AND TWEEK HPC POPS DOWN JUST A BIT TO SLGHT CHC.              
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH TO BE OF A SOUTHERN ORIGIN...AND THUS A               
GRDL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEEMS IN ORDER NEXT WEEKEND INTO                   
MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS APCHG NORMS IN THE UPR 30S.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
VFR MID-HIGH LVL BKN-OVC WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...TO BE                  
FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF VRY LGT SNOW SWEEPING                 
THRU THE REGION AHD OF A WARM FRONT FM ABT 06Z-12Z...AND PROBABLY               
NOT THAT LONG. WL KEEP THE CIGS VFR...BUT XPCT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS              
IN THE -SN. POST FROPA...TYPICAL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WITH LLVL               
CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH...FOLLOWED BY MID-HIGH CIGS THRU 18Z. WINDS                
LGT/VRBL TAFTN...BECMG SSELY 5-10 KTS TONIGHT...THEN SWLY 10-15                 
KTS AND GUSTY TUESDAY. SECOND SHOT OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPS              
AFT 18Z TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING.                                  
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUE NGT-WED...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.                       
WED NGT-THU...VFR. AREAS MVFR IN LAKE SNOW SHOWERS UPSTATE NY.                  
THU NGT...VFR. CHC MVFR -SN KAVP.                                               
FRI...VFR.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
829 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...                
ALLOWING WARMER AND A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS               
THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST                      
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                  
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 825 PM MONDAY...                                                          
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING                
TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FROM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.                
DEW POINTS...WHILE COMING UP SOME DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...             
STILL WERE IN THE LOWER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND AS HIGH AS                
THE UPPER 20S IN PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL                    
PLAIN. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MSAS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS                
WERE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE RECOVERY OF SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS                
SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT SINCE 21Z THE SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED                      
SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...                   
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE                   
OVERNIGHT...THE DEGREE OF RISE WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE NAM                 
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM TREND OF BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTH.          
THE NAM KEEPS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE              
NORTHWEST BY 12Z...UNLIKE THE GFS WHICH RESPONDS TO WARM-AIR AND                
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH DEW POINTS AT A MINIMUM IN THE MID 30S BY               
DAYBREAK. SUCH HIGH VALUES SEEM OVERDONE AT PRESENT.                            
GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC...NAM...AND GFS AGREE ON LIMITED LIFT TAKING              
PLACE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL LIFT WHICH SHOWS UP MOST                  
PROMINENTLY ISENTROPICALLY ON THE 295K SURFACE. LITTLE MID OR UPPER             
LEVEL SUPPORT IS APPARENT IN THE FORM OF JET DYNAMICS OR LAYER                  
FRONTOGENESIS...WHILE BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST                   
MODERATELY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ESPECIALLY WEST               
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE. 925MB-850MB MOISTURE               
TRANSPORT IS HIGHEST WEST OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THE GFS AND TO A               
LESSER EXTENT THE NAM PROVIDE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF                 
THERE LATE...AROUND 12Z...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS                       
SHOWING MODEST DRYING IN THE LAYER AROUND 700MB LATE SUGGESTS A                 
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE VERSUS RAIN. REGARDLESS...ANY                      
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY                     
LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING IN THE FAR WESTERN               
COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY                      
LOCATIONS SHOULD START TO SHOW A SMALL RISE LATE...READINGS BY 12Z              
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF KINT... KGSO...AND NEAR KTDF COULD BE NEAR                
FREEZING OR EVEN A TOUCH BELOW. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN                
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING AROUND                
12Z...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD                   
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF ANY FORMS AT ALL LATE.                     
FORTUNATELY...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.              
ANY DIFFICULTIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...ELEVATED SURFACES.             
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUE...WITH STRENGTHENING            
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FIELDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES              
TO TIGHTEN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOC/W AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE ADVANCING TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS. EXPECT A WARM FRONT                
TO LIFT NORTH/NW ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS               
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION ONLY IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO...WITH               
SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND DRY MID-              
LEVELS. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH...HAVE                     
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                 
MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNLESS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE TOO                   
SHALLOW WITH THE SATURATION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS               
ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN               
THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS               
CENTRAL NC THE ENTIRE DAY IN ASSOC/W THE WARM ADVECTION. EVEN AT                
JUST 24-HRS OUT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE ARE QUITE PAINFUL TO FORECAST...              
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NAM SHOWS CLOUD                   
COVER TEMPORARILY BREAKING OUT SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE                  
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE S/SE...ALLOWING                 
TEMPS TO RISE 5-10F HIGHER THAN WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING IN                      
ADDITION TO ALLOWING MIXING IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT WHERE SOUTHERLY               
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AS LOW AS 950-975 MB. THE                   
GFS...WHILE STILL ERODING AWAY THE DAMMING SIGNATURE AFTER THE                  
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOLDS ON TO MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE NAM                
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS LOWER AND MIXING WEAKER. WILL              
TRY AND BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...SHOWING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE              
LOWER 50S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                                  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO TEXAS             
ON TUE WILL SEPARATE INTO TWO DISTINCT WAVES TUE NIGHT...WITH THE               
SOUTHERN WAVE CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE WESTERN GOMEX AND              
THE NORTHERN WAVE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS. DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS             
PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS IN                  
ASSOC/W THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH(S) FROM THE WEST. IN THE               
LOWER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOC COLD                 
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT...WITH THE            
FRONT LOCATED IN THE TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR              
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT...WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM ACROSS CENTRAL NC...AND                 
EXPECT ONLY 30-50% CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. QPF               
OFF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR 00-12Z WED ARE ALL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN            
INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH MANY LOCATIONS JUST A FEW                 
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
STUDY OR SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...             
AND WILL FCST LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S (WEST/NW PIEDMONT) TO UPPER 50S             
IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT AND                
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO                   
CENTRAL NC WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO BE            
DEAMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY WED AS IT HEADS INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.             
THE LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THEREFORE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON WED...            
WITH THE BEST LIFT IN THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS IN ASSOC/W STRONG                 
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AS            
MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WED AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN              
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER              
60S. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO HIGH CHANCE (80%            
TO 70%) DUE TO THE LESS IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING. EVEN WITH LESS                
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING... WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MARGINAL              
(BUT DECENT FOR DECEMBER) AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WE CANNOT RULE OUT            
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH A PRIMARY              
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS                    
(SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB). INDEED...IF WE MIX EVEN IN THE            
LOWEST 2 KFT ON WED...WE COULD SEE RATHER BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.              
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL SHOW A SUSTAINED SW WIND OF 15-20 MPH            
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS (UP              
TO 40-45 MPH) DEPENDING ON HOW WELL WE MIX. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING             
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:                                         
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD! THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED              
MORE TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS                 
NOW...W/REGARD TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GOMEX                 
AMPLIFYING INTO AN UPPER LOW...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST            
STATES AND INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE              
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW TRACKING OVER THE CAROLINAS OR ALONG THE            
COAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MUCH SLOWER WITH THE                       
TIMING...AND GIVEN THE FLIP FLOPPING THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED IN THE               
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE                       
STABLE/CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF BASICALLY SHOWS THE             
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE GOMEX AMPLIFYING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE             
NORTHERN GOMEX...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS DURING THE               
DAY THU...WITH A SFC WAVE INITIATING AND DEEPENING OVER THE STALLED             
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...MOVING NORTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER               
THE CAROLINAS ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE             
FCST BOTH ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...AND                   
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 1-2" PRETTY REASONABLE. AS             
A REMINDER...UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL                  
SPREAD...AND THIS FCST REASONING IS A RESULT OF TRENDING TOWARD THE             
ECMWF. ANOTHER NOTE...WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING AND ADVANCING                    
DIRECTLY TOWARD THE AREA...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WED NIGHT AND THU TIME                  
FRAME...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES IN ASSOC/W ANY WARM            
FRONTAL PASSAGE(S)...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A            
LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TOUGH TO FCST AT THIS TIME...            
AND WILL SHOWS LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WED                 
NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THU...AND LOWS IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 30S THU NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...                                                          
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM                  
CARRIES OVER INTO THE FRIDAY PERIOD. THE GFS...BEING THE SLOWER                 
SOLUTION...WOULD SUGGEST PRECIP CONTINUES ALL OF FRIDAY WITH THE SFC            
LOW JUST APPROACHING HATTERAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH                  
FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW... RACING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST             
ATLANTIC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN A DRY FRIDAY. THE            
GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN ITS TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS              
BEEN VERY STEADY SHOWING GREAT CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN.                      
THEREFORE...THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HEAVILY LEAN TOWARD THE                 
ECMWF SOLUTION.                                                                 
THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL                  
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST AND AWAY                
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.                   
ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT THAN THE GFS...CLOUDS WILL BE                
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES                
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS 46-51.                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION OVER THE WEEKEND...                   
STARTING OFF SEMI-ZONAL AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE            
WEEKEND. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY GREATLY BY THE                
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS            
AND THE PARENT SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.                  
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE                 
MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON SATURDAY (LOW TO            
MID 50S) TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH             
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY.                                  
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE               
SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR               
TWO. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WHICH HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY COLDER              
THAN NORMAL...A TROUGH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A             
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS PATTERN                     
REVERSING...WITH TROUGHING BECOMING PREVALENT OVER THE WEST AND A               
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THEN AN EXTENDED             
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL               
NORTH CAROLINA. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR            
MID DECEMBER ARE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS NEAR                      
FREEZING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 640 PM MONDAY...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS              
OVER THE AREA. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT TUESDAY...                  
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD              
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 2-4K FEET... A TOP THE MORE STABLE COOL               
LAYER NEARER THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A                
LOWERING OF THE CIGS INTO THE MVFR... THEN IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES AT               
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z-15Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE INITIALLY VERY DRY            
NEAR SURFACE LAYER (CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS)... VSBYS SHOULD            
NOT LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE               
MAY BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE                     
KINT/KGSO AREAS TUESDAY... WITH MVFR VSBYS. IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD                
CONTINUE AT KINT/KGSO TO KRDU THROUGHOUT THE DAY... WITH SOME                   
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO POSSIBLY THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KFAY             
AND KRWI AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIND SHEAR MAY                  
BECOME AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS THE NEAR              
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH SLOWER TO TURN TO THE SE-S AND MUCH                
SLOWER TO INCREASE IN SPEED THAN THE WINDS ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP THE              
WIND SHEAR FORECAST OF 190 DEGREES AT 30-35KT AT 2K FEET OVER                   
KGSO/KINT/KRDU BETWEEN 18Z-23Z TUESDAY.                                         
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD              
FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE DOME               
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY WED FOR THIS TO OCCUR              
IN THE KINT/KGSO AREAS. THUS... WE WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS            
OVER IN THESE AREAS BEYOND 23Z TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE... CIGS AND VSBYS             
SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR RANGE... WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10-15KT.                  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS 2000             
FT WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT.                                                
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER A CONTINUED            
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS COULD                
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT              
POSSIBLE. REDUCED VSBYS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE            
WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE WED NIGHT.                                     
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY             
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS             
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE              
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/VINCENT                                                      
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT                                                         
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...JFB                                                                 
AVIATION...BADGETT/JFB                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
909 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS WILL MEAN EVERYTHING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AND THEY ARE NO              
EASY THING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE                    
EARLIER UPDATE TO MIN TEMPS IN THE CLEARING ACROSS NE ND/NW MN MAY              
HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE. THIS IS LIKELY FOR TWO REASONS...1/ THE               
COLDEST AIR MASS IS STILL UPSTREAM /850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET DOWN TO              
-15 C IN THE NRN FA UNTIL 09-12Z/ AND 2/ SFC WINDS NEAR 10KTS ARE               
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO BUOY TEMPS SOMEWHAT.                            
THE STRATUS DECK IN SRN MB/SASK IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH...                
LEAST INTO NRN MN CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. CIGS HAVE FALLEN                
BLO 1000 FT AGL IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THIS ZONE...WHICH IS ONE                
INDICATION THAT IT WILL TAKE HOLD AS THE BNDRY LAYER CONTINUES TO               
COOL OVERNIGHT. THE 21/00Z RUC...00Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...AND 00Z                
NAM ARE ALL REASONABLE IN TAKING THIS STRATUS DECK INTO AT LEAST                
ERN ND THRU TUE MORNING. IT/S THE CLEAR ZONE BTWN THE STRATUS AND               
EXITING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS TO OUR SE THAT POSES THE PROBLEM...                 
ESPECIALLY IF IT PERSISTS PAST 06Z WHEN THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL               
SUPPORT MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THIS LEAVES A ZONE FROM KDVL-KGFK-KFSE               
OR SO THAT COULD BE SURROUNDED BY ABV ZERO TEMPS AT THAT POINT...               
SINCE OBS IN SRN CANADA SUGGEST SFC TEMPS RISE ABV 0 F WHEN THE                 
STRATUS DECK ROLLS IN. THAT DETAIL HINGES ON SPATIALLY SIGNIFICANT              
CLOUD TRENDS THAT ARE NOT WELL ESTABLISHED...SO THE ACTUAL FCST                 
WILL TREND TOWARD THE AVERAGE MIN TEMPS IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOTS              
OF ROOM FOR VARIATION.                                                          
WE WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN EARLIER                  
FCST WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...AND UPDATE AGAIN MAINLY FOR SMALL                   
CHANGES SUCH AS TRENDING FROM POPS TO FLURRIES IN WC MN.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE BACK EDGE OF THE INITIAL IFR/MVFR CIGS FROM TODAY IS NEAR A                 
KFAR-KJBI LINE AT 03Z...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS TAKING                  
PLACE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR SPILLING SOUTH. THIS WILL BE              
SHORT-LIVED. THE MAIN AVIATION INTEREST THRU 18Z TUE WILL BE A                  
STRATUS DECK ADVANCING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CIGS IN THAT MVFR                 
CLOUD DECK WILL LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES. IT IS                    
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO TUE...OR HOW LOW THE              
CIGS WILL END UP BEING. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT NW MN                
WILL BE LESS-IMPACTED THAN ND BY THIS CLOUD DECK THOUGH.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SNOW IS EITHER DONE OR IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING IN SE ND AND WC MN              
NOW AS 500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND MID LVL                      
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES TO WANE. SFC VSBY IS AOA 3SM                  
ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND WINDS HAVE NOT COME UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY              
REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLSN. AS A RESULT...WE FEEL COMFORTABLE ENDING                
THE ENTIRE WINTER WX ADVZY. SPOTTER REPORTS DO INDICATE THAT 2-4                
INCHES OF SNOW DID ACCUMULATE EARLIER TODAY IN FAR SE ND.                       
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS.                     
LOW/MID LVL DRY ADVECTION HAS CLEARED SKIES FROM KDVL-KGFK-KBDE                 
/AS MODELED BY THE 21Z RUC/18Z GFS 850-500RH FIELDS/ AND THIS                   
WILL MAKE THE MIN TEMP FCST TRICKY. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY HOVERING              
NEAR 0 F IN THE DVL BASIN...AND TIMING THE NEXT BATCH OF MVFR CIGS              
UPSTREAM IN SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN FA USING EXTRAPOLATION AND THE              
AFOREMENTIONED RUC/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A                  
SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 18Z MAV                 
AND 21Z RUC SFC TEMPS BOTH CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL WELL...AT LEAST               
ACROSS THE DVL BASIN WHERE -10 F READINGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE                
GIVEN THE SNOW PACK. WE WILL MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN                   
TEMPS ALONG/NORTH OF THE KDVL-KGFK-KBJI LINE. IF THE MID LVL                    
DRYING SUGGESTED BY THE RUC/GFS MODELS IS CORRECT...THEN NRN MN MAY             
ACTUALLY END UP BEING THE COLDEST SPOT BY MORNING. SOMETHING TO                 
WATCH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/RIDDLE                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
550 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW IS EITHER DONE OR IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING IN SE ND AND WC MN              
NOW AS 500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND MID LVL                      
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES TO WANE. SFC VSBY IS AOA 3SM                  
ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND WINDS HAVE NOT COME UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY              
REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLSN. AS A RESULT...WE FEEL COMFORTABLE ENDING                
THE ENTIRE WINTER WX ADVZY. SPOTTER REPORTS DO INDICATE THAT 2-4                
INCHES OF SNOW DID ACCUMULATE EARLIER TODAY IN FAR SE ND.                       
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS.                     
LOW/MID LVL DRY ADVECTION HAS CLEARED SKIES FROM KDVL-KGFK-KBDE                 
/AS MODELED BY THE 21Z RUC/18Z GFS 850-500RH FIELDS/ AND THIS                   
WILL MAKE THE MIN TEMP FCST TRICKY. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY HOVERING              
NEAR 0 F IN THE DVL BASIN...AND TIMING THE NEXT BATCH OF MVFR CIGS              
UPSTREAM IN SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN FA USING EXTRAPOLATION AND THE              
AFOREMENTIONED RUC/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A                  
SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 18Z MAV                 
AND 21Z RUC SFC TEMPS BOTH CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL WELL...AT LEAST               
ACROSS THE DVL BASIN WHERE -10 F READINGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE                
GIVEN THE SNOW PACK. WE WILL MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN                   
TEMPS ALONG/NORTH OF THE KDVL-KGFK-KBJI LINE. IF THE MID LVL                    
DRYING SUGGESTED BY THE RUC/GFS MODELS IS CORRECT...THEN NRN MN MAY             
ACTUALLY END UP BEING THE COLDEST SPOT BY MORNING. SOMETHING TO                 
WATCH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE BALANCE OF               
THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR VFR CIGS. CLEARING ALONG AND                 
NORTH OF A KDVL-KGFK-KTVF LINE AT 23Z WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR                    
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES INTO THE                  
AREA FROM SRN CANADA. SINCE THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT THERE IS              
ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY LOWER FURTHER...BUT THAT IS A                  
LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT PRESENT. THE IFR CIGS FROM FAR SE ND                 
INTO NW MN WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE                
EVE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE             
TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE             
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO ENDED UP LEANING TOWARDS            
THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BLEND TO THE NAM FOR POPS. THE            
ADJMAVBC GRIDS STILL LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS...SO CONTINUED                 
USING THEM FOR SHORT TERM AND BLENDED INTO ECMWF FOR LATE PERIODS.              
AREA RADARS SHOW A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE DVL AREA INTO               
THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE MOVING SE            
INTO SE ND AND WC MN THIS EVENING. MODELS KEEP AN AREA OF 700MB LIFT            
AND 850MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF ND AND             
WC MN THROUGH 00Z...WHILE THE N AREAS DRY OUT AS DIVERGENCE AND                 
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS. THUS...STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FROM N TO            
S THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES STILL SEEM                     
REASONABLE...FOR ESPECIALLY FAR SE ND AND PARTS OF WC MN. AS FAR AS             
WINDS...THEY HAVE COME UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT SUSTAINED RANGE...WITH           
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS GETTING GOING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF                
ND. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD S THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE                  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A BIT AND THE GUSTINESS TO MOVE            
INTO E ND...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME REDUCED VSBY IN BLOWING AND                
DRIFTING SNOW FOR CURRENT ADVISORY AREA. SINCE FALLING SN SHOULD                
BE DONE IN N TIER COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY AREA (FROM NEW ROCKFORD TO           
MAYVILLE AND ADA) BY 00Z...WILL LET THAT PORTION EXPIRE AS                      
PLANNED. HAVE THEN EXTENDED REST OF CURRENT WINTER WEATHER                      
ADVISORY FOR SE ND AND PARTS OF WC MN UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING. BY                
THEN...THE MAIN AREAS OF SNOWFALL AND WINDS SHOULD BE DYING DOWN.               
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...WITH ANOTHER               
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE MODELS ARE             
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON TRACKING THIS LOW THROUGH S MB INTO THE MN                 
ARROWHEAD...SO EXPECT N PART OF AREA TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL                
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS EVENT...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES LOOKING                   
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS CLIPPER PASSES...ANOTHER                   
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS FOR THU...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE                   
SNOWFALL TO THE N PLAINS.                                                       
LONG TERM (THU NIGHT TO MON)...                                                 
GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE SHIFT ALOFT                 
FROM NW TO SW FLOW AS ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE                    
TROUGH (RIDGE) ACROSS THE W (E) CONUS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE             
EXISTS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE/QPF FIELDS WITH THIS               
CHANGE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER                
POPS. FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED MORE              
CONSISTENT ECMWF. AS SUCH...MOST FAVORED TIME FOR MEASURABLE SNOW               
LOOKS TO BE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ONE                   
THING IS FOR SURE...AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/NG/ROGERS                                                               
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1053 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S. WHEN COMPARING THE                 
MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...SO              
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE. AREA RADARS CONTINUE                
TO SHOW THE BEST ECHOS CONFINED TO CENTRAL THROUGH SE ND WITH                   
WEAKER ONES OVER PARTS OF NW AND WC MN. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO                 
FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES                       
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND S OF GFK TO BJI.                                  
MODELS KEEP BEST 700MB LIFT AND 850MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS               
SE ND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE N AREAS DRY OUT AS                     
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS. THUS...STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FROM N               
TO S TODAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH SNOW AS PREVIOUSLY                    
EXPECTED IN THE N AREAS...TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES STILL SEEM REASONABLE       
FOR PARTS OF SE ND AND WC MN. AS FAR AS WINDS...STILL COULD SEE                 
SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SO                
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. ONLY REAL               
CHANGE WAS TO TRIM POPS AND SNOWFALL TOTALS IN N PARTS. REST OF                 
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE TODAY AS INVERTED TROF                   
FOCUSES SNOWFALL ACROSS N PLAINS. WINDS TO TURN MORE N THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TODAY AND HEADLINES. THE                  
GFS/RUC ARE INITIALIZING MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM...WHICH IS WAY                
TO DRY WITH POOR QPF PLACEMENT...EVEN ON THE NEW 06Z RUN.                       
THEREFORE...WILL RIDE WITH THE GFS THIS MORNING AND THE RUC FOR                 
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.                                                             
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH BY 03Z. TEMPS                    
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...AND ANY CLEARING WILL               
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER READINGS WITH FRESH SNOW. SOUNDINGS AND RH                
PROGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE                    
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS.                                 
FOR TUE-FRI...A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A               
CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AND ANOTHER ONE FOR FRI. THE LATEST GFS               
IS VERY BULLISH ON THE FRI SYSTEM...WITH A CLOSED LOW AND DECENT                
MOISTURE. WE HAVE POPS GOING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD...AND                 
HARD TO FIND MUCH TIME WHEN THERE WON/T BE THE THREAT FOR SOME                  
SNOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-          
     028>030-038-039-049-052-053.                                               
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-          
     003-027-029>031-040.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
256 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TODAY AND HEADLINES. THE                  
GFS/RUC ARE INITIALIZING MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM...WHICH IS WAY                
TO DRY WITH POOR QPF PLACEMENT...EVEN ON THE NEW 06Z RUN.                       
THEREFORE...WILL RIDE WITH THE GFS THIS MORNING AND THE RUC FOR                 
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.                                                             
FOR TODAY...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL               
MOVE OVER SE ND INTO WC MN. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH DEEP/SUSTAINED                
LIFT PER OMEGA/FGEN FIELDS AND PWATS UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE                 
SOUTH. PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT WHEN 0.5 INCH PWATS ARE                   
PRESENT DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOMEONE USUALLY GETS 3-5 INCHES              
OF SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY                 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ROCKFORD TO MAYVILLE TO PARKERS PRAIRIE                
LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL IN SE ND. THE LATEST RUC                    
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW                      
BAND...THAT WOULD PLACE GFK CLOSER TO ADVISORY TYPE SNOW...SO THE               
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO WATCH. THE SNOW WILL ALSO FALL DURING AT                  
LEAST THE MORNING RUSH HOUR AND PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING RUSH IN                
THE SOUTH...SO TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS             
SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO W/ ONLY 20-25KT               
TO MIX FROM 850MB BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE WINDS              
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH BY 03Z. TEMPS                    
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 0 FOR MOST AREAS...AND ANY CLEARING WILL                  
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER READINGS WITH FRESH SNOW. SOUNDINGS AND RH                
PROGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE                    
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS.                                 
FOR TUE-FRI...A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A               
CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AND ANOTHER ONE FOR FRI. THE LATEST GFS               
IS VERY BULLISH ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...WITH A CLOSED LOW AND                    
DECENT MOISTURE. WE HAVE POPS GOING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY                       
PERIOD...AND HARD TO FIND MUCH TIME WHEN THERE WON/T BE THE THREAT              
FOR SOME SNOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN FROM                
THE WEST. THE LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE AT THE DVL/GFK AND FARGO                
TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN BY TONIGHT.        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-          
     028-038-049-052.                                                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ029-030-039-053.                                          
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-003-027-029>031-040.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DK                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
846 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL NO LARGE CHANGES TO GOING FCST. DID ADJUST TEMP CURVE AS                
TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMING IN DVL-JMS AREA PAST FEW HOURS AND STEADY               
ELSEWHERE. INTERESTING FCST NEXT 12-24 HRS ESP FOR SRN AREAS.                   
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE INTO NW                     
OREGON ATTM WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.                 
THIS MONTANA SHORT WAVE IS ASSOC WITH SFC LOW JUST EAST OF HAVRE                
AND IS ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN                 
MONTANA TO THE ISN-MOT AREA. SFC DEW PTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN               
THE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND                   
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CANADIAN RADARS SHOWING GOOD SNOW AREA               
IN SW SASK INTO NRN MT...WITH ERN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN                   
STREAKING INTO NW/WRN ND. TEMPS IN FAR WRN ND WARM ENOUGH FOR                   
LIQUID PCPN ATTM. MEANWHILE DO HAVE SOME 850 MB DRIER AIR TRYING                
TO ADVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THRU SE SASK AND SRN MB/NW                     
ONTARIO WITH CLEARING OF CLOUDS HAVING JUST PASSED YORKTON-                     
BRANDON-WINNIPEG-KENORA AREA. MOVEMENT OF THIS CLEARING IS                      
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST SO SOME AREAS ALONG MINNESOTA/MANITOBA BORDER               
AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA MAY WELL SEE SOME CLEARING                       
OVERNIGHT. DID DROP TEMPS A BIT IN THIS AREA FOR THIS REASON AS                 
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO ZERO IN CLEAR AREA.                                       
MEANWHILE...00Z NAM COMING IN AND BACK TO A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN                
SHOWING MONTANA SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SW                 
ND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BASICALLY WEAKENING OR BEING ABSORBED                
BY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE              
A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM CNTRL ND INTO SE                   
ND/WCNTRL MN...WITH RUC AND NAM SHOWING 4-5 INCHES PSBL IN CNTRL                
ND BTWN MOT/JMS/BIS WITH 2-4 INCHES TOWARD FARGO/FERGUS FALLS. HOW              
FAR NORTH WITH THE SNOW IS QUESTIONABLE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE                    
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO NE ND/NW MN ON MONDAY. 00Z NAM CUTSOFF                 
ANY SNOW FROM REACHING GRAND FORKS WHILE 00Z RUC20KM VERSION VIA                
FSL WEB SITE SHOWS NRN EDGE OF SNOW REACHING GRAND FORKS BEFORE                 
SLIDING SOUTHEAST. I THINK CURRENT POP STRUCTURE FOR MONDAY IS                  
PRETTY GOOD. CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN SE ND AND                   
MIDSHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IT. SNOW BEGINNING 09Z-12Z IN SE ND              
AND AFTER 12Z IN WCNTRL MN WITH PEAK IN THE MORNING HOURS IN SE                 
ND SO STILL TIME TO LOOK AT. GFS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST BY FAR UP                  
THRU 18Z RUN SO IT WOULD SAY NOT MUCH. HPC WWD HAS 2 INCHES IN SRN              
AREAS SO CLOSE CALL.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE W. WHEN COMPARING THE                 
MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM                        
TIMING...SO ENDED UP USING A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE                  
NAM/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM               
TRACK THAN THE GFS...SO PRIMARILY USED THE NAM FOR POPS. AS FAR AS              
TEMPS...THE ADJMAVBC WAS HANDLING THE COLDER REGIME THAT WE ARE                 
GOING TO KEEP AROUND FOR A WHILE PRETTY WELL...SO USED IT FOR THE               
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AND THEN SWITCHED TO THE ECMWF FOR THE               
LATER PERIODS.                                                                  
RESIDUAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START WINDING                 
DOWN IN NW AND WC MN THIS EVENING...AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE                    
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS. PCPN FROM THIS               
NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL IN ALBERTA AND E MT AT THIS TIME...SO NOT                  
EXPECTING IT TO START AFFECTING E ND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.              
WITH THE LOW TO TRACK THROUGH SW ND AND QUICKLY DROP INTO THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ND BY               
18Z MON...IT APPEARS THAT SE ND AND WC MN WILL BE THE BEST                      
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ONE TO                 
THREE INCH SNOWFALLS ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUE MORNING FROM THIS                   
STORM. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MON AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS             
THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT                 
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...A WINTER WEATHER              
HEADLINE DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.                                             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...WITH ANOTHER               
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...SO KEPT THE               
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                       
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...                                                          
MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE CHANGING PATTERN SO WENT             
WITH BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO        
REMAIN IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY AS 500MB RIDGE REMAINS              
IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. SOME RETROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN        
IS EXPECTED AS 500MB MEAN HEIGHTS SHOW RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER GULF            
OF ALASKA. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE N             
PLAINS. WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING OVER INTL BORDER...EXPECT SERIES              
OF SFC WAVES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT               
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THRU THE END OF             
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FA THROUGH THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE FA...EXPECT -SN TO                
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/NG                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
102 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RH VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH READINGS NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT               
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON. RUC CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS                    
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS... AND WHILE DEWPOINTS               
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THIS AREA PER MESONET AND ASOSES...                 
THE 00HR ANALYSIS SHOWING 18Z DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH               
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE HIGH AWOS DEWPOINTS ARE               
GETTING INTO THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST. BUT THESE FEW DEGREES IN                
QUESTION ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE                
RED FLAG WARNING. WIND CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL IN THE                          
SOUTHEAST... BUT WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE AND THE RED FLAG                   
WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE AREA. RFW IS ALREADY                    
OUT... AND WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO GET THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
PACKAGE UPDATED SOON. THIS UPDATE WILL INCLUDE RAISING MAX                      
TEMPERATURES FURTHER AS SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE              
MAXES FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>048-             
     050>052.                                                                   
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-             
     010-014-021-033>037.                                                       
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>089.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
927 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WITH IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH WEAKENING RADAR                 
ECHOES...HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF               
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WINTER               
STORM EVOLUTION. SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FORMING OVER AREAS                
ALREADY HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME LATCHING ON TO INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...GENERALLY                 
DIMINISHES THE SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH                    
RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE +SN THROUGH 03Z. COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE            
CWA AND PUSHING SOUTH. A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP ALREADY BEING                
RECORDED AT KABR/KMBG IN LAST 2 HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL              
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW. HAVE NOT CANCELED                  
ADVISORY AS SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AS FAR WEST AS                         
KMBG...ALONG WITH REPORTS OF FZDZ JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.                 
FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS EXTREME                
COLD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. PEEK OF COLD AIR ARRIVES                          
TUESDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES TO -15C IN SPOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE DROP               
OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 06Z              
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RADIATE WELL TOMORROW NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION                    
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES NEXT CLIPPER                    
SYSTEM WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. H925 TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE              
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COLD FRONT NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL THE THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO            
THE NEW TRACK...WILL DECREASE POPS TO SLGT CHANCE.                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH                
JUST SOME MINOR TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES. A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE                 
COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE DAKOTAS               
BY EVENING...AND ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK              
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE                     
DAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE                       
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT AREA OF LIFT SHOWING UP ON THE              
TIME SECTIONS...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING. THE UPPER FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A WEAK AREA OF PVA                       
REMAINING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CWA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL                    
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...KEEPING THE AREA DRY DURING THE               
DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE                    
BACKSIDE OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO THE                 
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DIG SOUTHWARD                                
SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME                 
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN                   
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN               
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN ELONGATES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                
TO COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE              
LOW AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                  
NOSE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. WILL KEEP A SCHC                
MENTION SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON              
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH DROPS OVER THE PLAINS                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND                           
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AS H85                       
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE                   
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.               
WILL LIKELY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST SUBZERO LOWS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT               
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY 07Z OR SO AT ALL TAF SITES.                          
OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR LATER TONIGHT WITH THE                
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CIRRUS BY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL                 
SEE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.                             
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOHR                                                                   
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
742 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.              
SURFACE OBS AND RADAR SHOWING THE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AND                    
ECHOES WEAKENING THIS EVENING. CANCELED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                 
FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WINTER               
STORM EVOLUTION. SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FORMING OVER AREAS                
ALREADY HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME LATCHING ON TO INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...GENERALLY                 
DIMINISHES THE SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH                    
RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE +SN THROUGH 03Z. COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE            
CWA AND PUSHING SOUTH. A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP ALREADY BEING                
RECORDED AT KABR/KMBG IN LAST 2 HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL              
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW. HAVE NOT CANCELED                  
ADVISORY AS SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AS FAR WEST AS                         
KMBG...ALONG WITH REPORTS OF FZDZ JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.                 
FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS EXTREME                
COLD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. PEEK OF COLD AIR ARRIVES                          
TUESDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES TO -15C IN SPOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE DROP               
OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 06Z              
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RADIATE WELL TOMORROW NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION                    
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES NEXT CLIPPER                    
SYSTEM WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. H925 TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE              
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COLD FRONT NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL THE THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO            
THE NEW TRACK...WILL DECREASE POPS TO SLGT CHANCE.                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH                
JUST SOME MINOR TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES. A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE                 
COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE DAKOTAS               
BY EVENING...AND ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK              
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE                     
DAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE                       
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT AREA OF LIFT SHOWING UP ON THE              
TIME SECTIONS...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING. THE UPPER FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A WEAK AREA OF PVA                       
REMAINING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CWA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL                    
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...KEEPING THE AREA DRY DURING THE               
DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE                    
BACKSIDE OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO THE                 
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DIG SOUTHWARD                                
SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME                 
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN                   
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN               
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN ELONGATES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                
TO COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE              
LOW AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                  
NOSE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. WILL KEEP A SCHC                
MENTION SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON              
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH DROPS OVER THE PLAINS                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND                           
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AS H85                       
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE                   
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.               
WILL LIKELY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST SUBZERO LOWS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT               
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY 07Z OR SO AT ALL TAF SITES.                          
OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR LATER TONIGHT WITH THE                
LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CIRRUS BY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL                 
SEE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.                             
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING             
     FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO-            
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DEUEL-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-SPINK.                  
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOHR                                                                   
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
257 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WINTER               
STORM EVOLUTION. SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FORMING OVER AREAS                
ALREADY HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME LATCHING ON TO INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...GENERALLY                 
DIMINISHES THE SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH                    
RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE +SN THROUGH 03Z. COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE            
CWA AND PUSHING SOUTH. A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP ALREADY BEING                
RECORDED AT KABR/KMBG IN LAST 2 HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL              
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW. HAVE NOT CANCELED                  
ADVISORY AS SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AS FAR WEST AS                         
KMBG...ALONG WITH REPORTS OF FZDZ JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.                 
FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS EXTREME                
COLD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. PEEK OF COLD AIR ARRIVES                          
TUESDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES TO -15C IN SPOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE DROP               
OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 06Z              
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RADIATE WELL TOMORROW NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION                    
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES NEXT CLIPPER                    
SYSTEM WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. H925 TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE              
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COLD FRONT NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL THE THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO            
THE NEW TRACK...WILL DECREASE POPS TO SLGT CHANCE.                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH                
JUST SOME MINOR TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES. A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE                 
COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE DAKOTAS               
BY EVENING...AND ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK              
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE                     
DAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE                       
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT AREA OF LIFT SHOWING UP ON THE              
TIME SECTIONS...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING. THE UPPER FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A WEAK AREA OF PVA                       
REMAINING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CWA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL                    
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...KEEPING THE AREA DRY DURING THE               
DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE                    
BACKSIDE OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO THE                 
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DIG SOUTHWARD                                
SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME                 
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN                   
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN               
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN ELONGATES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                
TO COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE              
LOW AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                  
NOSE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. WILL KEEP A SCHC                
MENTION SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON              
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH DROPS OVER THE PLAINS                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND                           
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AS H85                       
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE                   
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.               
WILL LIKELY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST SUBZERO LOWS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT               
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND                       
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL BUT THE                     
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR SOUTH               
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WHEATON TO MURDO...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS              
LIKELY. KATY AND KPIR WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE SNOW. THE SNOW               
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD                
BE OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING             
     FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-HUGHES-JONES-                  
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-STANLEY-SULLY-                     
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO-            
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DEUEL-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-SPINK.                  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG                
     STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
945 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MSAS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN                    
WYOMING...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ND.                
HIGHER DWPT AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA FROM THE                        
WEST...PROVING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN PCPN BEGINS TO                 
OCCUR. ACCORDING TO LASTEST NAM12 AND RUC...BEST PCPN POTENTIAL                 
WILL WAIT UNTIL BETTER 8H-7H LAYER OMEGA MOVES IN...WHICH WILL BE               
AROUND 06Z. DID SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO TIMING IN THE WEATHER                    
GRIDS...BUT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SOME MIXED/FREEZING PCPN                    
POTENTIAL...SO LEFT WEATHER TYPE FCST ALONE. TEMPS IN WY/MT/WRN SD              
ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN                 
THE HOURLY GRIDS STILL SEEMS VALID. UPDATED WORDED ZONE FORECAST                
SENT.                                                                           
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION                             
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE CWA CONTINUES TO SEE WARM ADVECTION UNTIL A               
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PROFILES SUGGEST                 
THAT WARM AIR ALOFT MAY MELT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE IS                   
LARGE DISCREPANCY OVER TIMING AND COVERAGE WITH BOTH THE SNOWFALL AND           
RAIN. ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AT                
THE SURFACE AND THE SPEED AT WHICH COLD AIR IS ERODING...MAKING                 
FOR A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE/WHEN A TRANSITION                   
BETWEEN SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MAJORITY OF                
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION RESIDES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION                
OF THE JET COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY...WITH THE FOCUS                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL     
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM A KMBG TO KHON LINE...AND HAVE                
MOVED LITTLE. SENSE THIS IS WHERE MAJORITY OF MODEL PRECIPITATION IS            
DERIVED IT SUGGESTS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEDER/FEEDER                     
EFFECT. THEREFORE WILL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR              
THE JAMES VALLEY AND SISSETON HILLS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.                    
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA MONDAY AM...WITH PRECIPITATION                    
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT                 
THE DAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION MONDAY                    
NIGHT/TUESDAY AM WITH H925/H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C. COULD                 
SEE LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY AM AS LOW CLOUDS                  
REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                          
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO THE AREA WITH                  
THE COLD ARCTIC AIR OSCILLATING IN AND OUT AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE                
THROUGH. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO EARLY PORTION OF FORECAST. A                  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                          
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS                   
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ARCTIC AIR NEARBY. 12Z NUMERICAL               
GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH WARMER THAN HPC GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL               
TREND TEMPS UP A BIT BUT TRY TO AVOID THE FLIP FLOP. MAJOR                      
PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE USA DURING THE                     
WEEKEND. NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST                  
FLOW ALOFT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW A GOOD BET. A STRONG                      
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE STATE BY SUNDAY...BUT                
STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. IT LOOKS                 
AS IF MAIN ENERGY WOULD NOT EJECT IN THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER THE                 
WEEKEND ATM.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MVFR/HIGH IFR                  
CATEGORY FOR KPIR AND KMBG BETWEEN 080600 AND 080900...WITH THOSE               
CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH 081500. AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT                
SOUTH OF KPIR/KMBG...CONDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT                     
081800. FLURRIES WILL CONT AT THE KATY TERMINAL THROUGH                         
080600...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE KABR TERMINAL AFT 080800.              
MVFR...OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE KABR AND KATY                   
TERMINALS THROUGH 081800 BEFORE IMPROVING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...SCARLETT                                                            
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
925 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES EXPECTED...AWAITING LOOK AT               
NEW GFS AND ECMWF. NEW NAM GENERATING ANYWHERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.40                
INCH QPF OVER SRN WI BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS                 
OVER THE NW CWA IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM NW MO                
WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER ERN IA MOVING INTO SRN WI.                         
RAIN SNOW LINE TO RUN ALONG THE NRN BORDERS OF OUR SRN-MOST                     
COUNTIES PER NEW RUC AND NAM POSITION OF 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM...SO                
EXPECT SOME CONTINUED PERIODS OF FZRA/SLEET/SNOW SOUTH OF THIS LINE.            
0C ISOTHERM FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH TO THE IL BORDER AT/AROUND                   
09Z. SOME LESSENING OF PCPN AFTER 09Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT EASES                  
WITH WINDS BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS AND BRIEF SUBSIDENCE              
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE...THEN INCREASING FRONTOGENTIC                      
FORCING BRINGS INCREASING PCPN TO AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH               
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING ALL SNOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST               
TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
FORECAST FOCUS SQUARLY ON ACCURATELY PINNING DOWN THE TRANSITION                
ZONE OF PCPN TYPES BOTH IN AREA AND TIME...AND THEN SNOW ACCUM                  
TOTALS. QUICK HIT FACTS...HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMS NORTH OF A LINE                   
STRETCHING FROM DODGEVILLE TO MADISON TO NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON.              
AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REACH 7 TO 10 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN                 
WITH 1/4 INCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE                              
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER UP INTO SRN DANE COUNTY TONIGHT WITH THE              
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OCCURING TUESDAY MORNING...3 TO 6 INCHES                
OF SNOW POSSIBLE...LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE STATE BORDER. 3 TO 4                 
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO SEE RAIN BY THE LAKE                     
BECOMING MIXED WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND. SNOW TO TRANSITION              
OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE MIXY AREA TUESDAY MORNING.                              
OBVIOUSLY...AN INCREDIBLY COMPLEX STORM HITTING THE AREA TONIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GO FOWARD.                            
GFS DOES SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BETTER THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON                 
AND I TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE WARMER NAM AND ECMWF. A BIT                
OF A BLEND OF THE TWO IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO. THE GFS DOES              
NOT PUSH THE 0C H8 LINE AS FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA COMPARED TO THE               
NAM. I THINK WE/RE GETTING LOTS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING...WITH THE               
LLV BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVR NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI.              
AS AN ILLUSTRATION...THE GFS HAS ALL SNOW FOR MADISON WHILE MOSTLY              
RAIN AT ROCKFORD. THE NAM HAS MORE MIX IN MADISON. THE SCIENCE                  
BEHIND ALL THIS REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. INTIAL PCPN TONIGHT INTO              
EARLY TOMORROW IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS MORE AN INVERTED SFC                  
TROF. BAROCLINIC ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP OMEGA SUPPLIED BY THE                
RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET. IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN UPPER JET OMEGA                
AND FRONTOGENETIC SHOW ON TUES AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER                    
ORGANIZED AND ROLLS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NRN INDIANA.                         
THE NEW ECMWF LOOKS TOO WARM AT OOZ TUE WITH THE H8 ZERO LINE. IT               
FALLS BACK TO THE BRODER BY 12Z. AGAIN...FAVORING THE GFS WITH A                
SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE WARM NAM AND ECMWF.                                      
WILL BLEND THE HPC AND GFS QPF AMOUNTS. HPC LOOKS FAIRLY CLOSE TO               
THE NAM OUTPUT. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTH HALF OF THE                 
CWA WILL BE IN THE 7 TO 10 INCH RANGE...THEN DROP TO AROUND 3 OR 4              
INCHES ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE FAR SRN               
TIER DUE TO THE SERIOUS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL                   
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE SUN SETS AND THE /COLD/ IN THE                   
CONCRETE ROAD SURFACES MOVE BACK TO THE SFC. AIR TEMPS ACROSS                   
THE FAR SOUTH WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK...EXCEPT                 
FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL HELP OUT.                           
AGAIN...ALL THE MIXY PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW TUE                
MORNING AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...PULLING                 
IN COLD AIR.                                                                    
VERY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL              
NORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW                
OR FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN                 
DEVELOPING SOME TYPE OF BIGGER LOW FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY                  
NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THAT IS A LONG WAY OFF AT THIS POINT.                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND              
TUE...PASSING THROUGH LOWER MI TUE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND             
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS WINTER STORM ALONG WITH A WARM LAYER             
ALOFT CREATING MIXED PCPN AT THE COLDER SFC...INCLUDING FREEZING                
RAIN AWAY FROM LAKE MI. THE LINE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS              
UNCERTAIN. IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR MADISON AND WATERTOWN. PCPN                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING AND BECOME HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS                
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TOWARD            
SUNSET AS PCPN DEVELOPS. MIXED PCPN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW DURING TUE             
MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED              
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON TUE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE EVENING AS            
PCPN ENDS AND SYSTEM MOVES OUT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM TUE AFTERNOON                 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS BRISK NLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A               
NEWD MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH LOWER MI AND INTO SE                 
ONTARIO CANADA. POTENTIAL FOR GALES TUE AFT AND NIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL             
AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI BY WED AFT WITH             
MUCH LESSER WINDS AND WAVES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ046-          
     047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070.                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR               
     WIZ060-066-071-072.                                                        
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR           
     LMZ643>646.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
411 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
PLENTY OF HEADACHES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAK SYSTEM/LIGHT SNOW               
EVENT TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND THEN                 
WINTER STORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.      
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF MS RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD              
SUBZERO TEMPS IN THE FRESH SNOWPACK/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND AREA                  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR DOING LITTLE TO HOLD                 
BACK THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. -13F AT SPARTA AS OF 09Z. GOES WATER              
VAPOR SHOWS WEAK/SHEARED PV ANOMALY OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTING QUICKLY          
SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BROAD WARM ADVECTION WING OF                 
LIGHT SNOW OVER DAKOTAS WITH 1-3SM VSBYS CROSSING INTO MN SOON.                 
07.06Z RUC ANALYSIS HAD -14 TO -16C AIR OVER ARX FORECAST AREA                  
/NWLY FLOW/ WITH +1C AT KUNR /RAPID CITY/ ON SWLY FLOW.                         
REGARDING MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE...ENOUGH HAS COME INTO LINE                
REGARDING MON NIGHT/TUES SYSTEM TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR                 
SRN/SERN SIDE OF FORECAST AREA. 07.00Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHIFT                
NORTH TOWARD PVS RUNS OF ECMWF AND NOW SPORT SIGNIFICANT QPF                    
ACROSS IOWA INTO INTO SRN WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO                      
TUESDAY. EVEN LOCALLY RUN WRF /ARW-WRF INITIALIZED WITH GFS                     
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS/ HAS COME INTO LINE WITH A VERY NICE                        
DOWNSCALED RENDITION OF THE 07.00Z GFS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WISCONSIN.              
WFO COLLABORATION SUPPORTED CURRENT WATCH ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN                   
FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW.        
FIRST WITH TODAY/TONIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE TREND HERE IS TOWARD              
A LITTLE WEAKER SYSTEM...QUICKER...WITH A SHORTER DURATION EVENT.               
EXPECT STRONG BURST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT /285K-295K/ AND MID LEVEL              
Q/G SIGNAL TO WORK MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE              
BAND OF SNOW INTO THE AREA EITHER VERY LATE THIS MORNING BUT FOR                
SURE BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE              
BUMPED THE SNOW CHANCES HIGHER...THE QUICKER/MORE TRANSIENT NATURE              
OF THE FORCING ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE LIGHTER QPF/SNOW AMOUNT.                    
THINKING NOW IS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH A FEW LOCALLY              
UP TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY WEST OF MS RIVER. PV ALOFT IS AWFULLY                   
WEAK/SHEARED OUT...SO THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKER REFLECTION                         
BELOW...AND AN EVENT DRIVEN LARGELY BY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS. WITH              
WARMER AIR STREAMING IN ALOFT...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL                  
WANES QUICKLY WITH RATIOS DECREASING BY THE HOUR.                               
TONIGHT...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO BE MAINLY EAST OF MS RIVER AND                 
WEAKENING. STILL SEEING A WINDOW /3-5HR/ RIGHT AS THE SNOW ENDS FOR             
ICE-BEARING CLOUD TO DEPART BUT HAVE SFC-2KM DEEP MOISTURE FIELD                
STILL FEELING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO              
PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE SOME NAM/GFS RUNS OVER THE                 
PAST DAYS HAVE BROUGHT A NICE SFC REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL                 
WAVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...THE LATTER               
RUNS ARE NOT HITTING THIS SO HARD...HENCE WE MAY BE LACKING OMEGA               
IN AN OTHERWISE VERY NICE SETUP FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE...WILL              
KEEP IT PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SET                
UP A GOOD ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM...COVERAGE                
CAN BE UPGRADED. WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT                
BELOW 1KM SO THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. HAVE SEEN                    
/ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SPC-WRF/NCAR-WRF/LOCALLY RUN                  
WRF/ THE TRADEMARK SPECKLES OF QPF INDICATING DRIZZLE HERE AND                  
THERE...SO THINK IT/S STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.                                     
MONDAY...TRICKY DAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING /MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q/G               
AND FRONTOGENESIS/ SLOWLY STARTS TO INCREASE AS NRN/SRN STREAM                  
ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INDUCING A BACKING OF THE MID                
LEVEL FLOW. QPF IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HERE AND THERE...BUT THERE               
HAS BEEN SOME TRENDS TOWARD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW /WHICH MAY                     
BRIEFLY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET/ GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL                 
STRUCTURES IN WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT IN AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SNOW               
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 30.                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE 07.00Z AND 07.06Z                  
NAM-WRF BACKING WAY OFF OF PREVIOUS SHIFT TOWARD ECMWF SOLN AND                 
MANY NAM SREF MEMBERS IN THIS NAM-WRF CAMP...THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT              
MOVEMENT IN NON-NAM SOLUTIONS TOWARD A WINTER STORM OVER IOWA/SRN               
WISCONSIN THIS TIME PERIOD. 07.00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE /IN                  
MOST PART/ THAT SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES              
AND BECOME DOMINANT INDUCING 995MB ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER                  
TX/OK BORDER REGION ON MONDAY EVENING. INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE                
ON THETA-SFC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY TAKE OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS                
SFC LOW MOVES INTO CNTL/SRN MO. SFC LOW NEVER REALLY DEEPENS...AND              
EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ELONGATED WITH THE MAIN CENTER INTO ERN                 
ILL BY 00Z WED. INITIAL PV/SHORTWAVE OVER TX PANHANDLE MON EVENING              
EJECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE OVER COLORADO...WHICH DIGS              
AND EJECTS INTO IA/MO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RESULT IS LONGER                    
DURATION SNOW EVENT WITH EPISODES OF HEAVIER QPF THROUGH THE LONG               
EVENT TIED TO THESE SHORTWAVES...AND SOME ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM              
AS WELL. TROUGH AXIS/PV EAST OF AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING                
RAPID END OF SNOW. MATURE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM KS/NEB                     
THROUGH IA/SRN WISCONSIN IN PLACE AS WAVES ARRIVE TO ASSIST IN PCPN             
PRODUCTION. MID LEVEL /700-500MB/ FRONTOGENESIS AXIS...WHILE NOT                
OVERLY STRONG...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN WIS                     
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO AUGMENT LARGER SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF 150-170KT JET ACROSS ERN CANADA...WITH COUPLING OF JETS               
NOTED AS 120KT JET EJECTS OUT OF SRN STREAM INTO CNTL CONUS ON                  
TUES. PLENTY OF FORCING HERE. ACCORDING TO 07.00Z GFS CROSS                     
SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS PATTERN...BEST DEEP LAYERED                    
OMEGA/AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE COMES IN 06Z TUES-18Z TUES TIME FRAME               
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WI.                                                         
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL PRODUCING 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID                 
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WISCONSIN...WHICH SEEMS ENOUGH FOR WATCH GIVEN              
CONSIDERATION TO STRONGER WINDS WHICH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NERN IA                
ON TUES WHICH MAY ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW. ECMWF WOULD ARGUE FOR                  
ADDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CURRENT                    
WATCH...BUT IS ALONE IN THIS DEPICTION RIGHT NOW. 07.00Z GEM IS                 
VERY MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF WITH QPF FOR THE EVENT TOWARD 1 INCH                   
ACROSS SWRN WISCONSIN...BUT RIGHT NOW FORCING DOESN/T SEEM TO                   
SUPPORT THIS AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LACK OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY                   
/-EPV/ OR A STRONGER FGEN SIGNAL. ONE OTHER CAVEAT...INITIAL WARM               
AIR ALOFT /USING MAX WET BULB TEMP/ CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PERIOD OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN THE EVENT BEFORE LIFT/COOLING TURNS               
IT TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW THAT/S NOT IN ARX FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOSE               
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME A PLAYER. BOTTOM LINE...CURRENT THINKING              
IS A 5-8 INCH BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NERN IA INTO SWRN                     
WISCONSIN...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS ON LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT IN THIS PERIOD THANKS TO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN                 
THE SHORT TERM OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE TIME THIS MORNING. THE BOTTOM              
LINE HASN/T CHANGED...THERE/S STILL TREMENDOUS SPREAD BETWEEN THE               
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE POOL               
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADA...AND HOW/IF/WHEN               
SOME OF THAT BITTER AIR SPILLS SOUTH. THERE/S ENOUGH AGREEMENT                  
THAT WED WILL BE DRY/COLD IN THERMAL TROUGH IN WAKE OF                          
MONDAY/TUESDAY STORM. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY                           
DETERIORATES. STILL SEEING CONFIDENCE PLOTS SPELL OUT AN EXTREME                
DEGREE OF VOLATILITY IN THE 21 MEMBER GEFS...THAT AN ENSEMBLE                   
APPROACH IS BASICALLY USELESS WITH FORECAST ENSEMBLE SPREAD                     
EXCEEDING THE 25 YEAR REANALYSIS OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGICAL                        
SPREAD...WHICH IS RARE. VIEWED GRAPHICALLY...THE GEFS MEMBER                    
PLUMES SHOWING 850MB TEMP RANGE FROM 0C TO -30C...WITH THIS DEGREE              
OF SPREAD FROM DEC11 INTO DEC15. ACTUALLY FIND SOME SEMBLANCE OF                
AGREEMENT AFTER FRIDAY IN THE 07.00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS               
WHICH ARE HIGHER RESOLUTION...BUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE A HUGE                   
SPREAD ON TEMPERATURES WITH GFS SAYING ARCTIC PLUNGE AND ECMWF                  
MUCH MORE MODIFIED. CHOSE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE HERE UNTIL A MORE               
CLEAR SIGNAL IS SEEN. WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH               
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL KEEP PESKY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO THE END                
OF THE WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE                  
SEEMS TO BE GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE PERIOD                     
DEVELOPING AS WRN TROUGHING/VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES SOUTH INTO                
NRN ROCKIES SETTING UP VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SW-NE                    
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CONUS. MASSIVE 1040-1045MB HIGH PRESSURE                
IN WRN CANADA/NRN CONUS FUNNELS ARCTIC AIR SOUTH...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE         
SERVING FOCUS FOR SNOW EPISODES ON AND OFF. WHERE THE FRONT SETS                
UP WILL BE THE MAJOR QUESTION. THERE/S NO DOUBT...WINTER IS IN                  
FULL SWING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ZONE OF STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. A MODEST AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS LIFT...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING                
THRU THE MORNING AS THE LIFT APPROACHES. STRONGEST LIFT/DEEPEST                 
MOISTURE/SATURATION MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE AT BEST...APPEARS CIG/VSBY             
RESTRICTIONS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR AS THE BAND OF -SN MOVES ACROSS THE            
AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LATE                
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS WHILE SOME FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE REMAIN IN              
THE LOWEST 2KM TO 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS A FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE SIGNAL. THIS SIGNAL MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING            
AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THE -FZDZ WITH NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK LIFT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS              
CONTINUING TO PULL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
932 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...SMALL BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSISTS THIS              
MORNING FROM N OF KLAR TO S OF KBFF TO W OF KSNY. SO...HAVE                     
EXTENDED THESE THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE GONE AFTER                   
THAT. ALSO...UPDATED TEMP GRIDS FOR WARMER CURRENT NUMBERS. JLH                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDARY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER               
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES              
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                 
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEILAND                                                   
LONG TERM...KMD                                                                 
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDAY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER                
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES             
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEILAND/KMD                                                                     
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
315 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY              
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY                     
AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY              
THIS MORNING. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPPING            
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAIN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN               
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE TWO DISTINCT PIECES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS PROVING THE LARGE SCALE             
LIFT TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MO AND AR.            
THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER                  
REGION AND WILL BE EVOLVING TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THE             
UPCOMING DAYS.                                                                  
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS               
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE. IN                  
ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WE ARE FINDING AN EXPANDING AREA             
OF SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER              
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...CONDITIONS ARE STILL                
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY                
OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLOUDS ARE              
BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL               
DECKS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND MORE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS                    
DEVELOPING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY)                                                  
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION THE THE PATTERN              
INTO THIS EVENING. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUING TO              
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE RACES              
NORTHEAST AND SHEARS OUT. TRAILING ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE            
FOUR CORNERS REGION DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN             
MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM            
THE EASTERN LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN              
GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO BE ALIGNED ALONG            
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LIFT/RAINFALL WELL TO              
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.                                                         
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY CONTROLLING OUR REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE                
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE              
WEST. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING AN            
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN            
STATES. SHOULD STILL BE LOOKING AT A GENERALLY QUIET TUESDAY FOR THE            
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND A MIX OF SUN AND                
CLOUDS IN THE EAST. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND SOME              
LIMITED LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAN              
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA            
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY               
AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT                  
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.                                                         
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY                      
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE               
TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO                  
SOUTHERN TEXAS. WILL ALSO BE SEEING WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECAST            
AS A TROUGH FRACTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRACTURE WILL LEAD                
TO THE SOUTHERN ENERGY CLOSING OFF INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW                
WHILE THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH RACES EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.              
SO...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE HOLDING TO               
OUR WEST...KEEPING A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND                
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND               
THEN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.                        
WILL NOT GET INTO MANY DETAILS FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME             
FRAME AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL             
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE MODEL SHOWING THE BEST                      
CONTINUITY AT THIS TIME IS THE ECMWF...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST               
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL              
SLIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS/LA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE               
SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST               
(MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX) AND PUSHING EAST TOWARD            
THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL/GA BY EARLY THURSDAY.                              
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR VERY LIKELY               
TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALMOST ALL DURING THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
TIME FRAME AS A LARGE AREA OF FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE               
850MB THETA-E RIDGE OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD             
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND ZONES WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL BE                  
CONTINUED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                    
THURSDAY SHOULD BE WET FOR ALL ZONES AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
ENERGY CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AS TO THE                
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SINCE THE EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS NOT              
BEEN SET IN STONE YET. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WORKING               
ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS ARE             
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE              
ALSO THERE. A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4" RAIN EVENT LOOKS INCREASINGLY                  
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.              
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS OF LESS CONFIDENCE. AGAIN WILL LEAN                
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS THE MAIN ENERGY AND SURFACE               
FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IMPROVING                 
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT            
EASTWARD EVOLUTION AND WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER FORECAST INTO                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-TUESDAY)                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ONCE THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AND            
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FINALLY CLEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY...THE LATEST                  
GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE             
LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE              
WESTERN CONUS COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. A LARGE SURFACE            
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO LA DURING MUCH            
OF THIS PERIOD...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR                    
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE            
IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM            
TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED OVER THE                
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. PROLONGED CAUTIONARY               
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND             
SEAS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF              
OF MEXICO DURING WEDNESDAY AND THEN PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE            
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST            
TO EAST ACROSS THE WATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WIND               
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH WIND AND              
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST                
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE            
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CIGS OF 3.5K-5K FT               
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND              
GFS MOS INDICATE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FROM 12 UTC TO 15 UTC AT                  
KTLH...AND FROM 18 UTC TO 23 UTC AT KPFN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL                  
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT (GUSTS NEAR 25 KT) BY MID MORNING. A FEW BRIEF             
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KDHN AND KPFN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT             
THE POP IS TOO LOW TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT                 
OPERATIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
STRONG FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED              
TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING DRY AIR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND                    
SOUTHEAST AL...AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT            
FEW DAYS. WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  73  59  73  59  70 /  10  10  80  80  60                           
PANAMA CITY  72  64  72  58  69 /  30  30  90  80  50                           
DOTHAN       71  60  68  53  63 /  30  40  90  80  60                           
ALBANY       71  58  70  57  67 /  10  20  90  80  60                           
VALDOSTA     74  57  74  60  70 /  10  10  50  80  70                           
CROSS CITY   77  58  77  62  72 /  10  10  40  70  70                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST                    
     THURSDAY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
339 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
335 AM CST                                                                      
WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN                 
FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF                
THIS STORM IN TERMS OF HEAVY SNOW STILL APPEARING TO REMAIN JUST                
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO                  
NORTHERN IOWA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT FOR              
FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH ONLY CHANGE TO ADD OGLE                    
COUNTY INTO THE ADVISORY.                                                       
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PANNING OUT AS EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI              
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD               
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. PRECIP TYPES REMAIN AN OBVIOUS CONCERN                 
WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FROM               
LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                
LOT FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT                 
MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THIS TIME...AND                  
EXPECTING THIS SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS                
BY MID MORNING. PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY ACROSS NORTH                
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY                 
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST WITH COLD              
ADVECTION...AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO AFFECT FAR                  
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING A BIT BETTER                
JOB WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC/LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS THIS MORNING              
AND HAVE PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE FORECAST TODAY.               
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE ON NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND HOW                    
EFFICIENTLY WET SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE. RUC PROGS SUGGEST STRONG              
UVM TOWARD THE RFD AREA CENTERED AROUND 15Z TIME FRAME WITH A                   
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST UVM IN LAYER OF -12 TO -18                 
DEG CELS TEMPS. THUS...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND                    
FREEZING...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT QUICK 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL MAY                
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NWRN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS                  
MORNING AS THESE FACTORS COME TOGETHER CREATING A POTENTIAL OF                  
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
ADVISORY AREA INTO LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO                 
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY              
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TOWARD MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS                    
GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STRONGEST                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND APPROACH OF THE                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION                
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER AS              
ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME                 
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF CHICAGO THIS                  
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL            
BE MAINLY RAIN APPROXIMATELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH MID TO               
LATE AFTERNOON...AND NOT CHANGING OVER IN NORTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL               
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH                 
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS                    
EVENING.                                                                        
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES...WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER                            
ADVISORY FOR WINNEBAGO...BOONE...MCHENRY...AND LAKE COUNTIES IN                 
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND BASED ON FAVORING NAM TIMING IN TERMS OF A               
SLIGHTLY QUICKER SNOW CHANGEOVER...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED OGLE COUNTY               
INTO THE ADVISORY WHERE SOME 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED              
WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.                 
GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                   
EXTREME NWRN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE WILL CARRY SOME 2 TO               
4 INCH AMOUNTS. BY TONIGHT...FORCING BECOMES MORE MID LEVEL IN                  
NATURE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL               
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL                    
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND PINPOINT WHERE POSSIBLE BANDING MAY SET UP                 
WITH THIS MID LEVEL FORCING...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN                 
INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN AREAS SOUTH OF WHERE                    
HEAVIER SNOW FALLS TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA INTO NORTHWEST               
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT PARAMETERS ARE NOT                      
SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH MARGINAL DELTA TEMPS...AND                 
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE.                          
FOR WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL NOSE INTO THE                  
UPPER MIDWEST WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT                   
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP              
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE INCREASED                 
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD. REMAINDER OF                     
FORECAST WAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RUN               
TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. LATEST TRENDS WOULD                  
SUGGEST PERHAPS WEEKEND LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER HOWEVER.                        
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
0600 UTC TAFS...THERE WILL BE RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE ACARS SOUNDING                
SHOWS A FREEZING LEVEL AT 9200 FEET. BELOW THAT LEVEL THE AIR IS                
ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE RAIN FALLING ON A SNOW COVERED SURFACE WE              
EXPECT SOME FOG AND IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE                  
FORECASTS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. WE HAVE ADDED THE SNOW IN THE                
FORECAST FOR AFTER 16 UTC FOR RFD AND AFTER 21 UTC FOR THE REST OF              
THE AIRPORTS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE AIR               
WILL BECOME COLDER SOONER IN ROCKFORD TUESDAY.                                  
THE SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE END              
OF THE DAY WE EXPECT A NORTH WIND. THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE            
CYCLONE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
248 AM CST                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...TO NEAR DETROIT BY                 
EVENING. AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE TODAY...              
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES AS                  
COLD AIR PLOWS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. MIXED                         
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FAR SOUTH...AND                  
SNOW NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE              
FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH GALES WILL LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT                    
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING                
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE                 
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS                
WILL BRING FRESHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN              
RESPONSE TO THIS DEEPENING LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE                   
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC.                                
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008               
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                                                  
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-                   
     LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-                   
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
430 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                                               
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD            
OF A RATHER INTENSE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC                      
REFLECTION. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH AND WEST WITH UPPER 30S THE NORM IN THE NORTH...AS OF 08Z.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS THREE KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE            
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE OVER                 
MO...A TRAILING SECONDARY TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING UPPER              
IMPULSE IN WESTERN TX...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGER WAVE TROUGH              
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST IMPULSE            
IS SUPPORTING 50-60 KNOTS OF LL FLOW AT H85 AS INDICATED BY VAD AND             
VWP DATA. STRONG LL FLOW IS ACTING TO ADVECT RICH THETA-E AIR INTO              
THE REGION WITH MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 8-9 G/KG ON THE 295K             
SFC. LARGE PRECIP SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND               
ASSOCIATED STRONG LL ADV...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEING                    
REPORTED OVER MO AND IL.                                                        
PREFERRED UTILIZING THE ECMWF/SREF/AND NAM12 GIVEN THEIR CONTINUED              
CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH OBS AND WELL HANDLING OF MANY OF THE KEY              
UPPER AND LL FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. ONLY                 
FAULT THAT IS CLEAR IS THE COLD BIAS THE NAM/SREF HAVE WRT THE SFC              
TEMPS...RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO COLD AT THIS HOUR. HAVE ADJUSTED            
HIGHS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                   
TODAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. DID ADD THUNDER               
MENTION TO THE GRIDS OVER ALL IN AND OH ZONES THIS MORNING. STAUNCH             
UPPER LEVEL FLOW/AMPLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND RATHER DEEP MOISTURE               
ADV INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A TIME PERIOD OF WEAK                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWALTER FORECASTS DO DROP NEAR ZERO...SO                
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FIRST WAVE OF STRONG LIFT AND              
THETA-E ADV WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE              
AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH DRY SLOTTING LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AS THE SFC             
LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT RUC80 H5 FIELDS AND SFC 3 HR                
PRESSURE CHANGES LOOK TO SUPPORT A TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM KANSAS             
CITY INTO NW IN AND INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY EVENING...BEFORE THE               
NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY SHUNTS THE LOW TO THE NE. HENCE...AREAS OF              
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN                 
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE             
FA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY             
EVENING WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHING INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST. A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CHANGE              
LINE SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE            
PREFRONTAL RAINS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE EAST WITH THE                       
DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTING INTO MI. BOTTOM LINE...DECENT FORCING WILL            
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW                  
EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH THE CAA REGIME IN PLACE. GENERALLY NOT                  
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS...WITH THE NW PORTION OF THE FA SEEING THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO DEFORMATION                       
PROCESSES...WITH ONLY UP TO AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED. SECONDARY                 
FEATURE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION              
OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING AND ASCENT FOR PRECIP            
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN IN/KY/AND OH. THE SE PORTION OF THE FA MAY              
BE ON THE FRINGE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                    
FEATURE. HENCE...HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS THERE.                                   
WEDNESDAY...CAA WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT CLOUDY             
SKIES WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. IN                         
ADDITION...THERE THE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FETCH/SHEAR FLOW/AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PER WEAK            
DELTA T/S LOOK TO LIMIT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A FEW TENTHS AT MOST              
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE                  
PATTERN CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL HAVE TO            
DEAL WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM AND ONE POSSIBLE LAST          
ARCTIC INTRUSION LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER          
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY FOLLOWING A BLEND OF ECMWF...CMC          
AND GFS AS THEY SEEM TO BE IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE BIG              
PICTURE.                                                                        
DIGGING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY ON NOSE OF POWERFUL JET             
EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO GULF COAST REGION AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY                
INTO GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.             
WHILE MODELS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR                     
AREA...STILL CONCERNED THAT IT COULD LIFT OUR FURTHER WEST GIVEN THE            
STRONG DIGGING ENERGY. NO INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE WATCHING         
CLOSELY. AT ANY RATE...THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A LONG WAVE            
PATTERN CHANGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST            
RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO RETOGRADE WEST AS STRONG SYSTEM DIVES              
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY LEAD TO A               
DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOW HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND               
OHIO VALLEY TO RISE IN RESPONSE.                                                
BEFORE THE WARMER AIR GETS PUMPED INTO THE REGION...ONE LAST                    
GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS            
STRONG STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH             
IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S ON               
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT                
EVENT IS GROWING...FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TWEEKED POPS            
A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS COLDER AIR. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY                 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...TRAJECTORIES AND                  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                             
AS WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER OUR               
AREA AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEING PROGGED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS FOR LATTER PART OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE GOOD          
AGREEMENT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS IN LATER                
PERIODS. WITH MODELS OF CHOICE SHOWING WARM THERMAL FIELDS WITH                 
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR LATE IN THE            
PERIOD...CHANGED PCPN TYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS. JUST SOME TWEAKS ON FLIGHT                
CATEGORY CHANGE TIMES. ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING                 
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RAPIDLY              
DEGRADING TO IFR/LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR. ADVANCING LLJ OVER OK/MO              
WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION SUPPORTING VIGOROUS MOISTURE                
AND HEAT ADV INTO THE AREA . THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT                      
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. FOG AN BR WILL BE                 
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE FA.                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR              
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
330 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH WARM             
FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY FOR              
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS UNDER THE 600-500 MB            
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHICH              
UP TO THIS TIME HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN. LATEST RUC RUNS INDICATE              
THIS FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.              
NEVERTHELESS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN UP THERE AND            
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. HAD TO INCLUDE                           
POCAHONTAS...WEBSTER AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING SINCE THEY WERE CLOSE TO OR AT 6 INCHES AROUND 1 AM.                    
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...THE RUC SOUNDINGS WERE RIGHT ON WITH                     
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS             
WELL DURING THE TRANSITION. FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WAS GETTING CLOSE             
TO ONE QUARTER INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AND LIKELY AT OTHER                      
PLACES...BUT THINK THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL COME JUST IN TIME TO             
KEEP THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS BAND OF PRECIP              
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB                         
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WHICH THE RUC AND THE 00Z GFS HANDLE                         
WELL...MAINTAINING IT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST             
AND WEAKENING IT. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DECENT SNOW RATES              
UNDER THIS BAND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATION SLIGHTLY IN               
THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                          
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT                   
DROPPING. SHOWERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE AND                     
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND OTHER PHASES ON THE WAY TO               
SNOW BY 9 AM. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE             
AREA AND REPORTS OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN RECEIVED                
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND              
WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FELL/FALLS.               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND CANCEL                 
AREAS AS TRENDS DEEM APPROPRIATE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING NOWHERE            
BUT DOWN TODAY UNDER CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                             
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR PRECIP            
TO EXIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO NOW HAVE DRY GRIDS FOR              
TONIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA                         
TONIGHT...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW                  
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDS ESPECIALLY IN              
AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER...HOWEVER TEMP FORECAST STILL TRICKY WITH            
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA                
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED              
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN                 
TEMPS BUT WITH DECENT FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH AMOUNT OF                 
WARMING SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD               
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...IN VICINITY OF BETTER MOISTURE. AS               
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY             
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER             
BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEAR ZONAL             
FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A              
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND.            
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/EC IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THERMAL GRADIENT              
SETTING UP ACROSS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALSO BOTH MODELS            
INDICATE MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH             
STRONG WAA SENDING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. OPTED TO                
TREND TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT WANT TO MONITOR LATER RUNS BEFORE            
MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT LOOKS LIKE                  
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS                  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLD AIR                
SURGES SOUTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...09/06Z                                                              
FOD/MCW SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH AT LEAST               
IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL CLEARING LATE.  ALO IS IN THE PROCESS OF                   
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW...AND MUCH LIKE MCW REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH                
EVENT WITH IFR OR LESS CIGS AFTER SNOW ENDS 15-16Z.  DSM/OTM SHOULD             
STAY RAIN FOR AWHILE BEFORE SWITCHING TO MIX 07-11Z AND THEN ALL                
SNOW 11-14Z.  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/IFR THERE ALL BUT LAST FEW                
HOURS OF PERIOD AFTER SNOW ENDS 16-18Z.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TODAY FOR BREMER-BUTLER-                   
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-                    
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TODAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-           
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GRUNDY-DALLAS-             
DECATUR-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-            
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TODAY FOR                                
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT                                                            
AVIATION...BSS                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
258 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW IS FOUND FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI              
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 AM. THIS IS DECENTLY HANDLED BY THE               
00Z MODELS...THOUGH THE NORTHERN POSITION...FOUND BEST BY LOOKING AT            
WIND FIELDS...IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SREF AND RUC                   
MODELS.  AS OF 2 AM...AN EXTREMELY STRONG FRONT IS SPLITTING THE CWA            
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR 50...AND JUST 20                 
MILES NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE TEMPS...ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS               
ONLY IN THE MID 30S. THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXTREMES OF THE CWA ARE            
AROUND 30.  THE NORTHWESTERN CWA HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL FREEZING               
RAIN SINCE LAST EVENING...AND A FEW REPORTS OF QUARTER INCH ICE                 
ACCUMULATION HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE                  
BETWEEN 32 AND 35 IN THE RAIN...WHICH IS EITHER A VERY INEFFICIENT              
FREEZING RAIN...OR JUST RAIN. THE CHANGE TO SNOW IS INTO                        
NORTHWESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTY AS OF 2 AM...AND THIS IS MOVING                    
SOUTHEAST NOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
WHILE ICE STORM LEVEL ICE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LINN AND BUCHANAN                
COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANGE TO SNOW IS IMMINENT...SO AN               
UPGRADE TO ICE STORM WARNING IS NOT LIKELY UNLESS WE REMAIN LIQUID              
THOUGH 6 AM.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE AND FORCING                
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AT 6 AM...AN WE WILL               
FORECAST 100 PERCENT POPS TODAY.  FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF MT                 
CARROL TO MT PLEASANT...TODAY SHOULD START WITH RAIN...THEN A BRIEF             
PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN TURN TO SNOW BY MID              
MORNING IN IOWA...AND LATE MORNING IN ILLINOIS.  BUREAU AND PUTNAM              
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON.   FORCING IS BEST EARLY                 
TODAY...AS IS THE MOISTURE.  SINCE THIS IS NOT A CLOSED                         
CIRCULATION...SNOW SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING LIKE A                 
TYPICAL MAJOR STORM.  HOWEVER...IN ALL LOCATIONS TODAY...A 4 HOUR               
PERIOD OF DECENT LIFT...AS WELL AS SUB FREEZING PROFILES...SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW EVENT TODAY.  IN THE NORTH              
AND NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE FOUND BEFORE 6                
AM...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF HIGHER TOTAL...OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND                
POSSIBLY LOCALLY 5 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.  ALL OF THESE COUNTIES            
ARE IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW...AND THIS SHOULD COVER THE                
SNOW FORECAST.  FARTHER SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...ROAD TEMPS ARE ABOVE            
FREEZING...AND SINCE THE DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE CHANGE                
OVER IS SHORT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A HAZARD             
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.  BLOWING SNOW IS A THREAT TODAY...BUT SHOULD              
BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH              
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS IS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE            
CWA...AND WE WILL PUT THIS IN THE GRID FORECAST. WINDS TODAY SHOULD             
BE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUST AROUND 30 TO              
35 MPH.           ...ERVIN...                                                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                   
QUIET WX FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                  
ACROSS THE AREA. RESPECTABLE WAA SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING             
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS THURSDAY                    
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT. NICE AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. SO WILL KEEP THE             
CURRENT SCHC POPS GOING FOR NOW.                                                
STRONG WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY. THE WAA IS IMPRESSIVE BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS              
REMAIN HIGH AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY TRIGGER. HOWEVER...             
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY SMOOTHED AND SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BE                  
AVERAGED OUT. SO...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCHC  TO CHC POPS GOING AND            
LET THE NEXT SHIFT GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK. SATURDAY NIGHT...A                     
RESPECTABLE TRIGGER IS PRESENT IN THE WAA TO JUSTIFY SCHC TO CHC                
POPS.                                                                           
THE EVENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE INTERESTING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT ENERGY CARVES OUT A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE               
WESTERN CONUS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. BOTH ALSO EJECT OUT SEVERAL                 
PIECES OF ENERGY AND DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE SUNDAY TO             
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT CAA BEHIND            
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW SOON THE                
COLD AIR ARRIVES. EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE                  
LIQUID PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM            
24 HRS AGO WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. THE MOST LIKELY                 
CAUSE FOR SUCH A CHANGE IS HOW THE MODELS ARE PHASING THE RESPECTIVE            
ENERGIES TO PRODUCE THE STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY               
CHANGES TO SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MODELS SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE               
AGAIN.             ...08...                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO INDIANA              
TODAY...BRINING NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR              
TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO ALL TAF SITES                   
THROUGH 22Z.  RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING                             
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW AT MLI AND BRL BY 15Z. BY 12Z...BOTH DBQ AND            
CID SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL END FROM             
WEST TO EAST...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS BY 02Z...AND              
THEN VFR BY 06Z.  CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY WILL VARY FROM 500 FT OR LESS              
TO OCCASIONALLY 2500 FT. ...ERVIN...                                            
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-          
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-                      
     JOHNSON-JONES-LINN.                                                        
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
425 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC                 
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE INTO THE                
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD                   
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG               
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
I HV TO EMPHASIZE...THIS FCST HAS HAD NMRS BRAIN BUSTING ASPECTS TO             
IT. 1ST OFF WAS PSBLTY OF ERLY MRNG FZRA...WHICH WOULD HV REQUIRED              
AN ADVSRY. WE ARE SEEING SOME RDR RETURN IN VCNTY OF W99. BUT                   
WE..IN AGREEMENT W/ CRW...BLV RDR IS ONLY SEEING MID LVL CLD CVR.               
IF WE SEE ANY REPORTS OF FZRA AN AMD WL BE NEEDED.                              
2ND - WIND. WE ARE XPCTG WINDS TO INCRS THIS AFTN AND OVRNGT AHD                
OF THE DVLPG FNTL BNDRY W/ STRNG WAA BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO                 
SEASONABLE TEMPS AFTR SVRL WKS OF BLO NRMLS. BY AFTN BLV FRQNT WIND             
GUSTS OF 35-40 KT AT HIGHER ELEVS...AND XPCT THIS WL CONT INTO THE              
NGT TIME HRS. HWVR...WE IN CONCERT W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES HV                    
DECIDED THAT THIS WL RMN BLO WIND ADVSRY CRITERIA. THX TO CRW FOR               
INITIATING COORDINATION.                                                        
3RD - PCPN ONSET. AM PULLING BACK A BIT ON START TIME OF RA BASED               
ON COMP ERN RGNL RDR. NOT MUCH ECHO TO THE S OR W OF THE AREA AT                
THIS TIME. HRRR RUC NOT SHOWING ANY ECHO IN THE AREA IN THE NEXT                
SVRL HRS EITHER. AND SREF PCPN LOOP SHOWS CHCS INCRSG IN THE W                  
LATE IN THE AFTN.                                                               
I GUESS THE OTHER THING TO THINK ABT IS THE TEMPS. IN CWA THESE                 
MAY ACTUALY BE WARMEST ON THE WRN RIDGE TOPS THIS AFTN. THIS IS A               
DAY THAT COULD BE FRAUGHT W/ BUST PTNL W/ REGARD TO TEMPS. YDA AND              
DAY PRIOR MDLS WERE ALL TOO WARM W/ HIGH TEMPS..AND AM GOING TO                 
STAY A FEW DEGS UNDER GDNC TDA. IN SPITE OF WAA I`M ESPECIALLY                  
SUSPICIOUS OF THE TEMPS IN LWR SRN MD GIVEN THE WATER TEMPS ARE                 
PRBLY AT LEAST A HALF DOZEN LOWER THE NRML FOR ERLY DEC. BUT ON                 
WHOLE CWA HIGHS SHOULD BE IN U40S/L50S.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
FNT WL STL BE TO THE W TNGT. WINDS WL STILL BE BLOWING STRNG OFF                
THE SFC. QUSTN RMNS EXCATLY HOW MUCH OF THAT WL WORK DOWN TO THE                
GRND...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVS. BUT BLV THIS WL BE A RLTVLY                  
WINDY NGT FOR THE MTNS. TEMPS WL CHG VERY LTL TNGT IN THE CONT WAA              
SCENARIO. RA CHC WL BECOME CAT OVRNGT EVERYWHERE XCPT LOWER SRN MD.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY PRODUCING SEVERE WX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS            
WILL HAVE NEARLY THE SAME APPEARANCE THIS TIME TOMORROW MRNG...JUST             
A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST. AN ONGOING OVERNIGHT SEVERE WX                 
EPISODE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTO THE MS/AL/TN                  
REGION OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED...AS THE SFC LOW              
SLIDES NE INTO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF APLCNS EARLY WED. A POSITIVELY              
TILTED MID LEVEL TROF WILL SPIN OFF A TAIL-END CLOSED UPPER LOW DOWN            
ACROSS TX...THE SPLIT DYNAMICS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE MIDDLE               
REGION OF SYSTEM /WHICH IS BASICALLY THE MID ATLC REGION/.                      
SO WED WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST DAY...AHEAD OF THE                
STRONG SFC FRONT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE L/M60S ACROSS THE                 
PIEDMONT OF THE MID ATLC EVEN W/ INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIRLY              
STEADY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUE INTO             
EARLY WED. BY LATE MRNG...THE SFC LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE CNTRL                 
APLCNS...DISSIPATING W/ ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE SIDE             
OF THE APLCNS INTO CNTRL PA W/ MORE PRECIP AREAS WRAPPED AROUND THE             
LOW. THE INTENSE RETURN FLOW FROM THE TUE/EARLY WED PERIODS WILL                
PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SFC                 
DWPTS IN THE U40/L50S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. MODEL PWATS INTO               
THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WED AFTN AHEAD OF THE               
SFC FRONT. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY ALSO PUSH LARGE AREAS OF                 
DISSIPATING BUT STILL MOISTURE RICH STRATIFORM RAINFALL INTO THE                
REGION WED MRNG/EARLY AFTN.                                                     
S-SWLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CNTRL APLCNS             
RIDGES THRU THE MRNG HRS AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN. GUSTS UP                  
20-30MPH WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH IS               
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE MID ATLC DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY              
EVNG HRS. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE A QUICKER DISSIPATION             
OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL RAIN BANDS MOVE             
EWD ACROSS DELMARVA AND OFF TO THE NW W/ THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL                 
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN GETS LIFTED AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT AND W/ VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL VA AND               
SRN MD...DEVELOP INTO LINEAR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AND              
ISOLATED TSTMS /SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY LOW AT THIS TIME/.                        
THE 06Z NAM DOESN/T GIVE US A BREAK ON THURS...DEVELOPING THE GULF              
COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM QUICKER THAN THE 00Z GFS BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF            
THE 00Z ECMWF. SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS MAY LIKELY            
BE THE ANSWER...W/ A POTENT SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE I-85 CRDR             
OF GA/SC AND SLIDING NEWD ON THU AFTN. FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY                 
THU... THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEAK LEE TROFS/LOW ACROSS OFF               
THE SRN APLCNS OF NC/VA AND PUSH REGIONS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS              
THE MID ATLC DURING THE DAY ON THU...W/ A DISTINCT CUT OFF OF PRECIP            
ACROSS THE APLCNS. THESE SAME WAVES OF PRECIP FROM THE LOW LEVEL                
DYNAMICS EXIST A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE SE ON THE GFS...W/ THE             
SHARP STRATIFICATION BEING EXISTING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VA. KEPT THE               
CWA IN AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THU...W/ THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONE              
OR MORE WAVES OF PRECIP SLIDING NWD DURING THE DAY.                             
NATURALLY THIS ALSO BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY THAT PORTIONS OF THIS                
ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS FROZEN PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AND AREAS            
WOULD BE LATE WED INTO EARLY THU AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU INTO EARLY             
FRI. THE I-95 CRDR WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIP MIX                
EITHER TIME PERIOD...THO THE BEST TIME WOULD BE EARLY FRI AS THE                
UPPER CLOSED LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID                 
ATLC COAST...PACKING IN THE COLDER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DOWN INTO              
THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THAT...DAYTIME HOURS WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY              
REMAIN RAIN UNLESS THE LR MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY              
OF THE COLD AIR WRAPPED INTO THE CLOSED LOW AND THE APPROACHING MID             
LEVEL TROF AXIS FROM THE OHIO VLY.                                              
THE NEWEST NAM RUN AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAVE THE ACTIVITY EXITING               
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MRNG HRS ON FRI. THE             
GFS A BIT BEHIND BECAUSE IT TAKES LONGER TO DEVELOP THE GULF COAST              
LOW PRES SYSTEM...AND FURTHER EAST. THE TROF AXIS KICKS OUT THIS                
ACTIVITY...LIKELY DURING THE AFTN HRS ON FRI W/ MUCH OF THE PRECIP              
WELL TO THE NE AFT 12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP AND BECOME                  
PARKED OVER THE REGION...BECOMING ELONGATED OVER THE LENGTH OF THE              
EAST COAST AS STRONG SWLY FLOW PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...W/               
THE REGION SEEING MUCH OF THE ACTION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY             
NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLC EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME W/ A            
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                           
VFR CONDS XPCTD DURG THE MRNG PUSH BUT THEN CONDS WL DEGRADE DURG               
THE DAY...MVFR FOR THE EVE PUSH..ANDIFR OVRNGT. OTHER CONCERN WL                
BE STRNG WINDS OFF THE SFC CREATING A SPEED SHEAR SITU LATER THIS               
MRNG AND LASTING THRU TNGT.                                                     
AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF                      
WED...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS             
THE MID ATLC DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS ON WED. LOW                    
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF            
THE FRONT...THO SFC WINDS AND LLWS WILL ALSO BE A NUISANCE FOR THE              
MRNG AND EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC WINDS WILL STAY GUSTING INTO THE                   
20-30KT RANGE. WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 40-50KT            
RANGE UP THRU THE FIRST FEW THOU FT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THRU                 
LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY STEADY N-NW WINDS 15-20KT AND DECRG                   
OVERNIGHT. THURS/FRI WILL SEE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW               
SHRA MOVING THRU THE REGION...AS ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS               
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NE INTO THE REGION...SLIDING OFF THE            
MID ATLC COAST EARLY FRI.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TDA AND TNGT. I AM STILL A BIT SUSPICIOUS OF HOW              
MUCH WIND IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN GIVEN BAY WATER TEMPS OF              
41 DEG IN A WAA ENVIRONMENT. LATE TDA AND TNGT WL HV A BETTER                   
OPPORTUNITY.                                                                    
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SOLID SCA CRIT FOR MUCH OF WED...                  
20-25KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. INTERMITTENT GUSTS NEAR BUT BELOW                  
GALE CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. A STRONG COLD              
FRONT LATE WED WILL SHIFT WINDS TO N-NWLY...BEGINNING TO PUSH                   
WATER BACK OUT OF THE BAY THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN BUILDING FROM              
THE COUPLE OF DAYS OF SLY WINDS FROM TUE/WED. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY THU/FRI...THO A SFC LOW WILL SLIDE UP THE                
ERN SEABOARD LATE THU...EARLY FRI AND KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER                
THE SRN BAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST               
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
337 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW STATIONARY               
OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER MIDDLE HIGH               
PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE HIGH               
PLAINS LOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER                     
MICHIGAN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT                  
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT DRAPES                 
SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. A HIGH IS            
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE                   
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS TODAY. AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MANITOBA             
AND SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON                  
INCREASING 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE               
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MANEUVER INTO EAST CENTRAL               
ONTARIO AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. DRY AIR            
WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. AN 850MB                 
THERMAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S TO AROUND               
21C. THE THERMAL INSTABILITY AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL                     
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE                    
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO            
KEEP LES IN THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL HIGH RES MODEL SHOWING LES WILL             
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL               
U.P. WHERE THE LONGEST FETCH WILL BE.                                           
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL                 
SWEEP INTO THE U.P. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH EASTERN ONTARIO BY            
DAWN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE.             
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE               
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE LOWER GREAT              
LAKES BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY DAWN. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE            
WILL TRACK FROM THE MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE WEST               
END OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL             
MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA BRINGING THE 850MB TEMPERATURE DOWN TO -21C             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST AREAS AROUND THE U.P. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES            
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE                
NORTHERN U.P. FOCUSING ON AREAS MOST PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH WIND.            
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE                
OVER WESTERN U.P. RACES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE               
RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM LOW             
SLIDES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRAWING A            
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE             
AREA...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH PUSHING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH            
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE DELTA-T`S WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 19C. THE            
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE LES TO END AND BRING WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE                  
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE BY 5F DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE               
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING INTO THE AREA             
AND INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW                       
GOING...MAINLY OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.                                  
THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE U.P. ISENTROPIC                     
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND Q-VECTOR ENERGY WILL PRODUCE MORE SNOW.             
GUIDANCE POINT TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HAVING              
THE HIGHEST RH...THUS WILL EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER THAT AREA.              
THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER                 
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE            
OF THE LOW. DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18C OVER THE WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS THE SYSTEMS SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE            
LES AS THE WINDS VEER NW.                                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON            
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE TO EASTERN                  
ONTARIO DRAGGING THE FRONT...AS A HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN               
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL LOWER            
TO AROUND -18C. THUS LOOKING FOR MORE LES MAINLY OVER AREA FAVORED              
BY LES WITH A NORTHWEST WINDS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR              
ADVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS AT THIS TIME.                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH             
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS             
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ACROSS THE              
AREA.                                                                           
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT TREKS EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE                
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...ENDING THE            
LES OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.                 
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRIER AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL REDUCE POPS            
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP               
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT GENERATING MORE SNOW. ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE SYSTEM SNOWS OVER THE             
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD MAKING IT INTO KSAW WHERE VSBYS LOOK LIKE THEY              
WILL DIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CIGS                 
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM SNOW AND TRANSITION TO PURE             
LES BY TUE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHTER SNOW. AS                 
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATE TUE...EXPECT LES BANDS TO              
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY TUE EVENING. LOWERED VSBYS BACK DOWN TO IFR            
BY TUE EVENING.                                                                 
THE ONLY SNOW KCMX WILL GET IS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING IS LIGHT              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS NRLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE                
LAKE TUE AFTERNOON EXPECT LES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND INTENSE              
LEADING TO IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING TO MOVE                 
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND THEN THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL              
PEAK AT 30 KNOTS BETWEEN THE INCOMING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...A LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL               
LIKELY REACH 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST              
HALF WHERE SOUTH WINDS ARE ACCENTUATED. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE COULD            
BE NW GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL             
DESTABILIZATION. LOOK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO FOLLOW THROUGH               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS MAY              
HIT 30 KNOTS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1224 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                         
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADVISORY HEADLINES WERE DROPPED AS MODEL FCST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON              
THE 290F SFC AND MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS             
OF HEAVIER SYSTEM SOUTH STAYING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.                 
USING A GFS/NAM/WRF-ARW MODEL BLEND QPF AND A 15/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO             
YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL               
...EXCEPT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY. WITH ANOTHER 1-2                 
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT              
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HEADLINES WERE DROPPED.                               
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE FCST.                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES               
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WITH LEAD WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH            
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE                   
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED...THERE WON`T BE A WELL-DEFINED                         
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A GENERAL LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS             
THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE UPPER                
LAKES. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SOME LES IS OCCURRING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
OVER THE SE FCST AREA IN LIGHT SRLY FLOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM                    
KGRB/KAPX SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO                
SUPPORT LES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BRING -SN NE INTO THE FCST AREA            
TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA             
OF -SN FROM NEBRASKA TO CNTRL/SRN WI IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20KT/25KT                 
S/SW WINDS AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY AT SLATER IA. SO ASCENT IS NOT             
PARTICULARLY STRONG. TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER VEER                
SLIGHTLY...CAUSING ASCENT TO SHIFT MORE E THAN N...AND THE NRN                  
PORTION OF ASCENT WEAKENS AS WINDS CROSS ISOBARS AT A DECREASING                
ANGLE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL THEN LIFT NE TO THE LWR                 
LAKES REGION BY LATE TUE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS WELL-DEFINED               
NOW AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA...ALL MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE WEAKENING            
AS IT HEADS NE INTO INCREASING CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. ACCOMPANYING              
SFC LOW ALSO WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...             
LARGER SCALE TROF TAKES ON AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. ALL OF THIS             
WILL CONSPIRE TO WORK AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR                  
DESPITE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NE TO PROVIDE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SO...WHILE THE NRN EDGE OF SNOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA...SEEMS               
REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE                
LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A TREND FROM THE 12Z MODELS                 
FOR LESS PCPN. EVEN WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS...AN ADVY IS STILL                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.                
EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN              
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS WELL ALOFT...ROUGHLY                    
10-15KFT AGL. THIS MAY WORK TO DECREASE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WITH              
ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.              
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES (00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z TUE)             
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE                
CITY OF MENOMINEE. IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS OF LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUE IN              
UPCOMING RUNS...AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE SCALED BACK FURTHER AND ADVY             
MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED.                                                       
ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL GET INVOLVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR                
LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS WINDS BECOME N TO NE. WITH LITTLE OVERLAP              
OF NRLY WINDS AND DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...LAKE INVOLVEMENT WILL             
BE LIMITED. SO...AWAY FROM THE ADVY AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                  
TONIGHT THRU TUE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.                                 
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AT 00Z WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED            
FROM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NRN MEXICO.                 
MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE                   
TROUGH...WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AROUND 06Z WED...THEN                  
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z THU. THE PROGRESSION OF             
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI              
INTO SE LOWER MI SUPPRESSED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE. THIS                 
MEANS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUE SHOULD SHIFT             
EAST TUE EVENING. KEPT IN SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG LAKE MI IN THE                 
EVENING FOR TIMING ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TUE NIGHT INTO               
WED MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAUSED BY COLD               
AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO                
DROP TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z WED...DEFINITELY SUFFICENT FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT. MOISTURE DOES DEPART FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...              
AND AFTER 06Z WED WHEN THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST...INVERSIONS WILL              
LOWER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. IN                    
ADDITION...WINDS ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SHIFTING...WHICH WILL PREVENT              
ANY ONE SPOT FROM STAYING IN A BAND. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFLY SNOW               
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR LAKE                       
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKE EFFECT WILL            
LIKELY DIMINISH MORE WED MORNING AS FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC WITH A              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. IN FACT...SOUTH CENTRAL             
AND PERHAPS EVEN MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WED MORNING.              
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW             
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MARCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MN. THIS IS A            
BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND REALLY LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAYS 12Z                
NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. NOW ALL THE MODELS ARE ON                 
BOARD WITH THE FASTER SCENARIO...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME -SN                 
ACROSS MN...NW WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...DEPENDING                     
ON HOW QUICK THE DRY AIR EXITS. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR             
CWA...THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT. STAYED TOWARD THE                
COOLER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO BELOW AT NIGHT BECAUSE OF BREEZY               
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...MODELS BRING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...THEN LIFT IT TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON THU.                
MUCH OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM ADVECTION...WHICH WILL              
HELP BRING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER            
MOST AREAS AND CAN ENVISION RAISING THEM TO CATEGORICAL IF THE 00Z              
MODEL CYCLE TONIGHT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT...THE PROBLEM            
IS SOME LACK OF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AN             
INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE EXISTS A                      
POSSIBLITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR                 
EASTERN CWA. LATE WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION COMES IN AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI. IT                   
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED AFTER 06Z               
FOR WESTERN UPPER MI. FOR THU...WITH THE CLIPPER HEADING OFF TO THE             
NE...COLD ADVECTION GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN DEAL.               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI. WIND FLOW            
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF               
THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE.            
SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY            
WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND. REGARDING TEMPS...RAISED THEM QUITE A BIT              
WED NIGHT TO A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
PCPN HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB THU MORNING                
BEFORE MORE COLD AIR COMES IN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EITHER HOLD                   
READINGS STEADY OR HAVE THEM FALL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO                 
THUS TEMPS.                                                                     
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG                  
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT IS THAT             
BY 12Z SUN...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SW. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE                
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GETTING OUT INTO SUN AND MON SINCE SW FLOW             
IS USUALLY PRETTY ACTIVE. FOR THU NIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD                 
AIR WILL ENTER THE CWA BEHIND THURSDAYS CLIPPER...MEANING SOME MORE             
LAKE EFFECT FOR WEST AND NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z FRI. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS              
ON FRI...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. THE RETURN               
FLOW COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH THE             
LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS                     
INDICATED TO HEAD TOWARDS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DVPA FORCING              
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A              
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP...GIVEN THAT                 
850-LAKE SFC DELTA TS ARE 11-14C. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS              
AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER SAT...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.               
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO BY SAT EVENING. THE 00Z                        
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS LOW NE ACROSS                
UPPER MI LATE SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER                    
BRINGING UP THIS LOW...NOT HAVING IT CROSS UNTIL MON. THE REASON FOR            
THE SLOWER GFS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE CLIPPER ON SAT WHERE IT IS            
QUITE A BIT DEEPER. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PROVIDE NO HELP EITHER IN                 
DETERMINING WHICH SCENARIO MIGHT BE CORRECT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT                
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL ENTRAIN ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO                  
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD A WET SNOW...WHICH COULD ALSO CHANGE              
TO RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE                 
WHICH LEANS A BIT MORE TO THE ECMWF IDEA...BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FORECAST               
WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON FOR SYNOPTIC                
INDUCED SNOW...EITHER FROM WARM ADVECTION OR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS            
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUN. WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                         
12Z GFS CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...GIVING A LITTLE MORE                  
CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A BIT               
CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AS WELL. DUE TO ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE                  
SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAR OUT THE SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON IS IN                       
TIME...WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW FOR RAISING TEMPS MORE AND                      
MENTIONING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD MAKING IT INTO KSAW WHERE VSBYS LOOK LIKE THEY              
WILL DIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CIGS                 
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM SNOW AND TRANSITION TO PURE             
LES BY TUE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHTER SNOW. AS                 
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATE TUE...EXPECT LES BANDS TO              
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY TUE EVENING. LOWERED VSBYS BACK DOWN TO IFR            
BY TUE EVENING.                                                                 
THE ONLY SNOW KCMX WILL GET IS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING IS LIGHT              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS NRLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE                
LAKE TUE AFTERNOON EXPECT LES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND INTENSE              
LEADING TO IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE                       
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES TROF ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DRIFT S TONIGHT. LOW PRES             
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE TROF...REACHING               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO               
BECOME N AND RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. SINCE LOW IS                     
WEAKENING...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND            
25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT TUE MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KT TUE EVENING ON            
LAKE SUPERIOR...IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY WED                 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...CAUSING SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30                
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THU AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25             
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF                
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS            
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE TO             
POSSIBLY 30 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                     
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NE AT UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT OVER                   
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
130 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MILD AND              
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... IN                
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE             
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 825 PM MONDAY...                                                          
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING                
TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FROM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.                
DEW POINTS...WHILE COMING UP SOME DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...             
STILL WERE IN THE LOWER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND AS HIGH AS                
THE UPPER 20S IN PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL                    
PLAIN. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MSAS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS                
WERE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE RECOVERY OF SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS                
SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT SINCE 21Z THE SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED                      
SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...                   
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE                   
OVERNIGHT...THE DEGREE OF RISE WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE NAM                 
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM TREND OF BACKING WINDS TO THE                 
SOUTH. THE NAM KEEPS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z...UNLIKE THE GFS WHICH RESPONDS TO                  
WARM-AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH DEW POINTS AT A MINIMUM IN THE             
MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. SUCH HIGH VALUES SEEM OVERDONE AT PRESENT.                 
GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC...NAM...AND GFS AGREE ON LIMITED LIFT TAKING              
PLACE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL LIFT WHICH SHOWS UP MOST                  
PROMINENTLY ISENTROPICALLY ON THE 295K SURFACE. LITTLE MID OR UPPER             
LEVEL SUPPORT IS APPARENT IN THE FORM OF JET DYNAMICS OR LAYER                  
FRONTOGENESIS...WHILE BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST                   
MODERATELY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ESPECIALLY WEST               
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE. 925MB-850MB MOISTURE               
TRANSPORT IS HIGHEST WEST OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THE GFS AND TO A               
LESSER EXTENT THE NAM PROVIDE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF                 
THERE LATE...AROUND 12Z...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS                       
SHOWING MODEST DRYING IN THE LAYER AROUND 700MB LATE SUGGESTS A                 
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE VERSUS RAIN. REGARDLESS...ANY                      
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY                     
LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING IN THE FAR WESTERN               
COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY                      
LOCATIONS SHOULD START TO SHOW A SMALL RISE LATE...READINGS BY 12Z              
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF KINT... KGSO...AND NEAR KTDF COULD BE NEAR                
FREEZING OR EVEN A TOUCH BELOW. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN                
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING AROUND                
12Z...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD                   
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF ANY FORMS AT ALL LATE.                     
FORTUNATELY...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.              
ANY DIFFICULTIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...ELEVATED SURFACES.             
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUE...WITH STRENGTHENING            
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FIELDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES              
TO TIGHTEN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOC/W AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE ADVANCING TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS. EXPECT A WARM FRONT                
TO LIFT NORTH/NW ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS               
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION ONLY IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO...WITH               
SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND DRY MID-              
LEVELS. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH...HAVE                     
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                 
MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNLESS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE TOO                   
SHALLOW WITH THE SATURATION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS               
ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN               
THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS               
CENTRAL NC THE ENTIRE DAY IN ASSOC/W THE WARM ADVECTION. EVEN AT                
JUST 24-HRS OUT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE ARE QUITE PAINFUL TO FORECAST...              
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE NAM SHOWS CLOUD                   
COVER TEMPORARILY BREAKING OUT SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE                  
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE S/SE...ALLOWING                 
TEMPS TO RISE 5-10F HIGHER THAN WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING IN                      
ADDITION TO ALLOWING MIXING IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT WHERE SOUTHERLY               
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AS LOW AS 950-975 MB. THE                   
GFS...WHILE STILL ERODING AWAY THE DAMMING SIGNATURE AFTER THE                  
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOLDS ON TO MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE NAM                
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS LOWER AND MIXING WEAKER. WILL              
TRY AND BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...SHOWING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE              
LOWER 50S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                                  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO TEXAS             
ON TUE WILL SEPARATE INTO TWO DISTINCT WAVES TUE NIGHT...WITH THE               
SOUTHERN WAVE CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE WESTERN GOMEX AND              
THE NORTHERN WAVE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS. DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS             
PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS IN                  
ASSOC/W THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH(S) FROM THE WEST. IN THE               
LOWER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOC COLD                 
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT...WITH THE            
FRONT LOCATED IN THE TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR              
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT...WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM ACROSS CENTRAL NC...AND                 
EXPECT ONLY 30-50% CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. QPF               
OFF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR 00-12Z WED ARE ALL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN            
INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH MANY LOCATIONS JUST A FEW                 
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
STUDY OR SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...             
AND WILL FCST LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S (WEST/NW PIEDMONT) TO UPPER 50S             
IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT AND                
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO                   
CENTRAL NC WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO BE            
DEAMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY WED AS IT HEADS INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.             
THE LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THEREFORE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON WED...            
WITH THE BEST LIFT IN THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS IN ASSOC/W STRONG                 
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AS            
MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WED AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN              
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER              
60S. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO HIGH CHANCE (80%            
TO 70%) DUE TO THE LESS IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING. EVEN WITH LESS                
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING... WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MARGINAL              
(BUT DECENT FOR DECEMBER) AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WE CANNOT RULE OUT            
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH A PRIMARY              
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS                    
(SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KNOTS AT 850 MB). INDEED...IF WE MIX EVEN IN THE            
LOWEST 2 KFT ON WED...WE COULD SEE RATHER BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.              
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL SHOW A SUSTAINED SW WIND OF 15-20 MPH            
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS (UP              
TO 40-45 MPH) DEPENDING ON HOW WELL WE MIX. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING             
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:                                         
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD! THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED              
MORE TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS                 
NOW...W/REGARD TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GOMEX                 
AMPLIFYING INTO AN UPPER LOW...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST            
STATES AND INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE              
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW TRACKING OVER THE CAROLINAS OR ALONG THE            
COAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MUCH SLOWER WITH THE                       
TIMING...AND GIVEN THE FLIP FLOPPING THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED IN THE               
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE                       
STABLE/CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF BASICALLY SHOWS THE             
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE GOMEX AMPLIFYING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE             
NORTHERN GOMEX...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS DURING THE               
DAY THU...WITH A SFC WAVE INITIATING AND DEEPENING OVER THE STALLED             
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...MOVING NORTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER               
THE CAROLINAS ON THU. THIS SUGGESTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE             
FCST BOTH ON WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...AND                   
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 1-2" PRETTY REASONABLE. AS             
A REMINDER...UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL                  
SPREAD...AND THIS FCST REASONING IS A RESULT OF TRENDING TOWARD THE             
ECMWF. ANOTHER NOTE...WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING AND ADVANCING                    
DIRECTLY TOWARD THE AREA...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WED NIGHT AND THU TIME                  
FRAME...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES IN ASSOC/W ANY WARM            
FRONTAL PASSAGE(S)...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A            
LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TOUGH TO FCST AT THIS TIME...            
AND WILL SHOWS LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WED                 
NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THU...AND LOWS IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 30S THU NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...                                                          
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM                  
CARRIES OVER INTO THE FRIDAY PERIOD. THE GFS...BEING THE SLOWER                 
SOLUTION...WOULD SUGGEST PRECIP CONTINUES ALL OF FRIDAY WITH THE SFC            
LOW JUST APPROACHING HATTERAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH                  
FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW... RACING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST             
ATLANTIC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN A DRY FRIDAY. THE            
GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN ITS TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS              
BEEN VERY STEADY SHOWING GREAT CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN.                      
THEREFORE...THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HEAVILY LEAN TOWARD THE                 
ECMWF SOLUTION.                                                                 
THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL                  
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST AND AWAY                
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.                   
ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT THAN THE GFS...CLOUDS WILL BE                
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES                
THAN THE GFS SHOWS. WILL GO WITH HIGHS 46-51.                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION OVER THE WEEKEND...                   
STARTING OFF SEMI-ZONAL AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE            
WEEKEND. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY GREATLY BY THE                
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS            
AND THE PARENT SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.                  
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE                 
MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON SATURDAY (LOW TO            
MID 50S) TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH             
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY.                                  
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE               
SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR               
TWO. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WHICH HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY COLDER              
THAN NORMAL...A TROUGH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A             
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS PATTERN                     
REVERSING...WITH TROUGHING BECOMING PREVALENT OVER THE WEST AND A               
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THEN AN EXTENDED             
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL               
NORTH CAROLINA. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR            
MID DECEMBER ARE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS NEAR                      
FREEZING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
A CANOPY OF STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT AS OF 06Z THIS               
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP... EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD... AND                 
GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH DAYBREAK... AS WARM AND               
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ATOP A COOL AND STABLE               
SURFACE LAYER. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE             
WILL LEAD TO A LOWERING OF THE CIGS INTO MVFR... THEN IFR/LIFR                  
CATEGORIES AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z-15Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE                 
INITIALLY VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER (CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE                
TEENS)... VSBYS SHOULD NOT LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL MID TO            
LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN                     
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KINT/KGSO AREAS TUESDAY... WITH MVFR VSBYS.                 
IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KINT/KGSO TO KRDU THROUGHOUT THE               
DAY... WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO POSSIBLY THE MVFR             
CATEGORY AT KFAY AND KRWI AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.                
WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT TAF                 
SITES AS THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH SLOWER TO TURN TO THE            
SE-S AND MUCH SLOWER TO INCREASE IN SPEED THAN THE WINDS ALOFT. WE              
WILL KEEP THE WIND SHEAR FORECAST OF 190 DEGREES AT 30-35KT AT 2K               
FEET OVER KGSO/KINT/KRDU BETWEEN 18Z-23Z TUESDAY.                               
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD              
FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE DOME               
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY WED FOR THIS TO OCCUR              
IN THE KINT/KGSO AREAS. THUS... WE WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS            
OVER IN THESE AREAS BEYOND 23Z TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE... CIGS AND VSBYS             
SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR RANGE... WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10-15KT.                  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS 2000             
FT WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT.                                                
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER A CONTINUED            
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS COULD                
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT              
POSSIBLE. REDUCED VSBYS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE            
WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE WED NIGHT.                                     
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY             
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS             
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE              
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MWS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT                                                         
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...JFB                                                                 
AVIATION...MWS/BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
424 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PREFRONTAL TROF HAS PUSHED INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS                
WITH THE STRONGER COLD FRONT STILL UP ACROSS THE CNTRL TX PNHDL.                
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE            
OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT KDHT. WE HAVE PROBABLY                 
ALREADY SEEN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED FOR THE DAY AT MIDNIGHT AS               
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD FALLING TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE DAY.  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE SHOULD               
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE              
ADVISORY AREA.  WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH            
RANGE SO BLOWING SNOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET.                            
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY               
FURTHER SOUTH...BASICALLY WHETHER TO INCLUDE LUBBOCK OR NOT.  BOTH              
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AREA OF QPF ALONG THE TX/NM             
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE 00/06Z RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW              
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND SETTING UP SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK.  THE 00Z             
NAM AND TO A WEAKER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARED TO TRY AND DEVELOP A                
TROWAL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED                  
SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CNTRL OR SRN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THE 06Z             
RUNS ARE NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.  A DIFFERENCE OF             
25 TO 50 MILES IN THE TRACK OF ANY OF THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES                
WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN                  
LUBBOCK OR JUST A DUSTING.  FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF EXPANDING THE               
ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE AS IS SO THAT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN HAVE A LOOK            
AT THE 12Z DATA TO SEE IF EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AREA IS                     
WARRANTED.                                                                      
PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET.                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CHILLY AS SURFACE WINDS                       
DECREASE...SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT              
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MAKE               
STEADY PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A POCKET OF HEIGHT             
RISES. GIVEN ONLY LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY                      
MIDDAY...MAX TEMPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT WITHIN THE COOLER REALM OF               
MOS GUIDANCE AND ANY AREAS THAT DO MAINTAIN SNOW COVER FROM TODAY               
/PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST/ MAY NEED HIGHS SCALED BACK EVEN                 
FURTHER. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THEN SINKS SOUTH WED NIGHT WELL SOUTH            
OF A BROAD POLAR HIGH BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.                  
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FLATTENING SOME BY THIS TIME...THESE            
MINOR REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR STILL LOOK TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN             
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH FRI. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO GET               
A BIT INTERESTING THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE BROAD HIGH TO OUR EAST               
AND AN AMPLIFYING LEE TROF TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE VERY LEAST                  
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ON               
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.                                                   
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...CONFIDENCE HEREAFTER REMAINS HIGH IN A                  
PATTERN CHANGE SHAPING UP BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND AS A                 
SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY LOW PHASES WITH A DIGGING TROF EXITING THE            
GULF OF ALASKA. THE SUBSEQUENT LOWERED HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE                  
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD ALLOW A SHALLOW DOME              
OF ARCTIC AIR TO DISLODGE AND PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS                    
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM AN IMPRESSIVE 1051MB (PROGGED) ARCTIC HIGH IN                    
WESTERN CANADA IS FORECAST BY THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND                   
ECMWF TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE TREND OF                 
ACCELERATING THIS FROPA BEYOND MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN RETAINED                
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN SOLID AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN                 
AND SHEER MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN THE SOURCE REGION.                       
MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD               
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF                  
ENERGY DRAWS CLOSER...BUT TOO MUCH SPREAD EXISTS CONCERNING THE                 
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        35  18  51  23  58 /  90   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         35  19  49  24  58 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     35  20  50  26  57 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     38  22  52  24  60 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       38  22  52  27  59 /  70   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   40  25  49  26  60 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    41  25  50  28  60 /  70   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     42  24  52  29  58 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
SPUR          43  23  52  30  59 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     50  27  52  29  59 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/93                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN               
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN                  
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                                               
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD            
OF A RATHER INTENSE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC                      
REFLECTION. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH AND WEST WITH UPPER 30S THE NORM IN THE NORTH...AS OF 08Z.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS THREE KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE            
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE OVER                 
MO...A TRAILING SECONDARY TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING UPPER              
IMPULSE IN WESTERN TX...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGER WAVE TROUGH              
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST IMPULSE            
IS SUPPORTING 50-60 KNOTS OF LL FLOW AT H85 AS INDICATED BY VAD AND             
VWP DATA. STRONG LL FLOW IS ACTING TO ADVECT RICH THETA-E AIR INTO              
THE REGION WITH MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 8-9 G/KG ON THE 295K             
SFC. LARGE PRECIP SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND               
ASSOCIATED STRONG LL ADV...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEING                    
REPORTED OVER MO AND IL.                                                        
PREFERRED UTILIZING THE ECMWF/SREF/AND NAM12 GIVEN THEIR CONTINUED              
CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH OBS AND WELL HANDLING OF MANY OF THE KEY              
UPPER AND LL FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. ONLY                 
FAULT THAT IS CLEAR IS THE COLD BIAS THE NAM/SREF HAVE WRT THE SFC              
TEMPS...RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO COLD AT THIS HOUR. HAVE ADJUSTED            
HIGHS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                   
TODAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. DID ADD THUNDER               
MENTION TO THE GRIDS OVER ALL IN AND OH ZONES THIS MORNING. STAUNCH             
UPPER LEVEL FLOW/AMPLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND RATHER DEEP MOISTURE               
ADV INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A TIME PERIOD OF WEAK                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWALTER FORECASTS DO DROP NEAR ZERO...SO                
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FIRST WAVE OF STRONG LIFT AND              
THETA-E ADV WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE              
AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH DRY SLOTTING LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AS THE SFC             
LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT RUC80 H5 FIELDS AND SFC 3 HR                
PRESSURE CHANGES LOOK TO SUPPORT A TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM KANSAS             
CITY INTO NW IN AND INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY EVENING...BEFORE THE               
NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY SHUNTS THE LOW TO THE NE. HENCE...AREAS OF              
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN                 
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE             
FA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY             
EVENING WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHING INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST. A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CHANGE              
LINE SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE            
PREFRONTAL RAINS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE EAST WITH THE                       
DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTING INTO MI. BOTTOM LINE...DECENT FORCING WILL            
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW                  
EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH THE CAA REGIME IN PLACE. GENERALLY NOT                  
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS...WITH THE NW PORTION OF THE FA SEEING THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO DEFORMATION                       
PROCESSES...WITH ONLY UP TO AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED. SECONDARY                 
FEATURE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION              
OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING AND ASCENT FOR PRECIP            
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN IN/KY/AND OH. THE SE PORTION OF THE FA MAY              
BE ON THE FRINGE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                    
FEATURE. HENCE...HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS THERE.                                   
WEDNESDAY...CAA WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT CLOUDY             
SKIES WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. IN                         
ADDITION...THERE THE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FETCH/SHEAR FLOW/AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PER WEAK            
DELTA T/S LOOK TO LIMIT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A FEW TENTHS AT MOST              
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE                  
PATTERN CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL HAVE TO            
DEAL WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM AND ONE POSSIBLE               
LAST ARCTIC INTRUSION LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE MILDER TEMPERATURES                 
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY FOLLOWING A BLEND             
OF ECMWF...CMC AND GFS AS THEY SEEM TO BE IN OVERALL GENERAL                    
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE.                                                   
DIGGING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY ON NOSE OF POWERFUL JET             
EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO GULF COAST REGION AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY                
INTO GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.             
WHILE MODELS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR                     
AREA...STILL CONCERNED THAT IT COULD LIFT OUR FURTHER WEST GIVEN THE            
STRONG DIGGING ENERGY. NO INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE                  
WATCHING CLOSELY. AT ANY RATE...THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A             
LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND             
WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO RETOGRADE WEST AS STRONG                
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY            
LEAD TO A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOW HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO RISE IN RESPONSE.                                      
BEFORE THE WARMER AIR GETS PUMPED INTO THE REGION...ONE LAST                    
GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS            
STRONG STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH             
IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S ON               
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT                
EVENT IS GROWING...FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TWEEKED POPS            
A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS COLDER AIR. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY                 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...TRAJECTORIES AND                  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                             
AS WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER OUR               
AREA AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEING PROGGED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS FOR LATTER PART OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE               
GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS IN                 
LATER PERIODS. WITH MODELS OF CHOICE SHOWING WARM THERMAL FIELDS                
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR LATE              
IN THE PERIOD...CHANGED PCPN TYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR              
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
726 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN                 
PART OF THE ADVISORY. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS                    
EXPECTED...AND ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT REDUCE VSBY LESS THAN ONE              
QUARTER MILE. THE REST OF THE HEADLINES ARE ALSO ON SHAKY GROUND                
AND WILL NO DOUBT BE CANCELLED EARLY TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN                     
REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VSBY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...SO OPTED TO               
KEEP THOSE HEADLINES IN PLACE. HAVE HAD UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN               
KOSSUTH COUNTY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER CHANCES OF                  
SNOW IN THE WEST AND LOWER OVERAL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH                 
AND EAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH WARM             
FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY FOR              
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS UNDER THE 600-500 MB            
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHICH              
UP TO THIS TIME HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN. LATEST RUC RUNS INDICATE              
THIS FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.              
NEVERTHELESS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN UP THERE AND            
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. HAD TO INCLUDE                           
POCAHONTAS...WEBSTER AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING SINCE THEY WERE CLOSE TO OR AT 6 INCHES AROUND 1 AM.                    
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...THE RUC SOUNDINGS WERE RIGHT ON WITH                     
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS             
WELL DURING THE TRANSITION. FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WAS GETTING CLOSE             
TO ONE QUARTER INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AND LIKELY AT OTHER                      
PLACES...BUT THINK THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL COME JUST IN TIME TO             
KEEP THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS BAND OF PRECIP              
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB                         
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WHICH THE RUC AND THE 00Z GFS HANDLE                         
WELL...MAINTAINING IT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST             
AND WEAKENING IT. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DECENT SNOW RATES              
UNDER THIS BAND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATION SLIGHTLY IN               
THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                          
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT                   
DROPPING. SHOWERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE AND                     
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND OTHER PHASES ON THE WAY TO               
SNOW BY 9 AM. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE             
AREA AND REPORTS OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN RECEIVED                
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND              
WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FELL/FALLS.               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND CANCEL                 
AREAS AS TRENDS DEEM APPROPRIATE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING NOWHERE            
BUT DOWN TODAY UNDER CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                             
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR PRECIP            
TO EXIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO NOW HAVE DRY GRIDS FOR              
TONIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA                         
TONIGHT...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW                  
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDS ESPECIALLY IN              
AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER...HOWEVER TEMP FORECAST STILL TRICKY WITH            
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA                
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED              
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN                 
TEMPS BUT WITH DECENT FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH AMOUNT OF                 
WARMING SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD               
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...IN VICINITY OF BETTER MOISTURE. AS               
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY             
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER             
BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEAR ZONAL             
FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A              
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND.            
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/EC IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THERMAL GRADIENT              
SETTING UP ACROSS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALSO BOTH MODELS            
INDICATE MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH             
STRONG WAA SENDING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. OPTED TO                
TREND TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT WANT TO MONITOR LATER RUNS BEFORE            
MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT LOOKS LIKE                  
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS                  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLD AIR                
SURGES SOUTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...09/12Z                                                              
SNOWFALL WINDING DOWN...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO             
GO. KOTM ACTUALLY WILL GO TO FZRA SOON AND THEN TO SN BY 14Z. STRONG            
NLY WINDS KICKING UP BLSN WHICH WILL KEEP VSBY IN MVFR RANGE FOR                
MUCH OF THE DAY AT NRN SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO SETTLE IN...BUT               
CLEAR WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z. ALL SITES GO VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND              
AFT 00Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLACK                 
HAWK-CLARKE-DECATUR-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-                  
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                                      
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BREMER-BUTLER-                    
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO                
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT                                                            
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
545 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH WARM             
FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY FOR              
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS UNDER THE 600-500 MB            
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHICH              
UP TO THIS TIME HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN. LATEST RUC RUNS INDICATE              
THIS FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.              
NEVERTHELESS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN UP THERE AND            
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. HAD TO INCLUDE                           
POCAHONTAS...WEBSTER AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING SINCE THEY WERE CLOSE TO OR AT 6 INCHES AROUND 1 AM.                    
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...THE RUC SOUNDINGS WERE RIGHT ON WITH                     
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS             
WELL DURING THE TRANSITION. FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WAS GETTING CLOSE             
TO ONE QUARTER INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AND LIKELY AT OTHER                      
PLACES...BUT THINK THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL COME JUST IN TIME TO             
KEEP THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS BAND OF PRECIP              
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB                         
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WHICH THE RUC AND THE 00Z GFS HANDLE                         
WELL...MAINTAINING IT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST             
AND WEAKENING IT. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DECENT SNOW RATES              
UNDER THIS BAND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATION SLIGHTLY IN               
THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                          
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT                   
DROPPING. SHOWERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE AND                     
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND OTHER PHASES ON THE WAY TO               
SNOW BY 9 AM. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE             
AREA AND REPORTS OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN RECEIVED                
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND              
WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FELL/FALLS.               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND CANCEL                 
AREAS AS TRENDS DEEM APPROPRIATE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING NOWHERE            
BUT DOWN TODAY UNDER CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                             
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR PRECIP            
TO EXIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO NOW HAVE DRY GRIDS FOR              
TONIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA                         
TONIGHT...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW                  
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDS ESPECIALLY IN              
AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER...HOWEVER TEMP FORECAST STILL TRICKY WITH            
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA                
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED              
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN                 
TEMPS BUT WITH DECENT FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH AMOUNT OF                 
WARMING SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD               
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...IN VICINITY OF BETTER MOISTURE. AS               
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY             
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER             
BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEAR ZONAL             
FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A              
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND.            
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/EC IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THERMAL GRADIENT              
SETTING UP ACROSS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALSO BOTH MODELS            
INDICATE MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH             
STRONG WAA SENDING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. OPTED TO                
TREND TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT WANT TO MONITOR LATER RUNS BEFORE            
MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT LOOKS LIKE                  
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS                  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLD AIR                
SURGES SOUTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...09/12Z                                                              
SNOWFALL WINDING DOWN...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO             
GO. KOTM ACTUALLY WILL GO TO FZRA SOON AND THEN TO SN BY 14Z. STRONG            
NLY WINDS KICKING UP BLSN WHICH WILL KEEP VSBY IN MVFR RANGE FOR                
MUCH OF THE DAY AT NRN SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO SETTLE IN...BUT               
CLEAR WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z. ALL SITES GO VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND              
AFT 00Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TODAY FOR BREMER-BUTLER-                   
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-                    
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TODAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-           
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GRUNDY-DALLAS-             
DECATUR-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-            
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TODAY FOR                                
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT                                                            
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
801 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP FAR NORTHWEST MO AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KS              
FROM THE EARLIER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHWEST MO THAT              
THE ADVISORY IS NO LONGER WARRANTED. A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH             
A VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS                
QUICKLY DEVELOPED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.                  
LATEST NAM/GFS/RUC ALL POINT TO THIS BAND SPREADING QUICKLY                     
DOWNSTREAM AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW             
SHOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 16Z.                    
THINKING IS A 1-2 INCH BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MO              
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED REPORT OR TWO OF UP TO 3 INCHES IS                  
CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.                                      
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/329 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008/                                                     
COMPLEX FORECAST TAKING SHAPE THIS MORNING AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM           
IMPACTS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
TELLING THE STORY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THE FIRST CONCERN IS WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW                
LIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS/WESTERN AND CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI. THIS HAS SENT A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST            
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPPER 40 TO            
LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS HAVE STREAMED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN            
MISSOURI. DEEP AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA             
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO                 
MODERATE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...DEFORMATION BAND OF FROZEN PRECIP              
INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND                  
CENTRAL IOWA.                                                                   
DETERMINISTIC SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT             
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. SFC COLD           
FRONT SHOULD REACH A LINE FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE TO JOPLIN BY 12Z. THIS           
WILL PLACE ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY             
AND WITHIN THE MORE FAVORABLE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR DECENT              
CHANCES OF PRECIP. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM                 
GUIDANCE...CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS THE AREA LOOKS             
TO BE CAUGHT IN BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PERIOD BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORT WAVE            
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EMERGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN           
PLAINS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED                
PRECIP AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AND ATMOSPHERIC                
COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED. PRECIP TYPE DELINEATION WILL ULTIMATELY               
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF WARM NOSE IN PLACE AND INTRODUCTION ICE CRYSTALS            
INTO THE COLUMN. WILL LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF            
OF THE CWA RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME AT              
NOON.                                                                           
BY THIS AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL START TO LIMIT PRECIP             
POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AS               
THIS OCCURS MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO            
THE PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A               
PIECE OF ENERGY EMERGING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS THIS                
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES SHAPE...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LOOKS TO                
INCREASE AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+KT JET STREAK OVERSPREADS                   
SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...Q VECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MODEST FRONTOGENESIS SEEM TO BE FOCUSED                
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SECONDARY AREA OF               
SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE              
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DECENT OMEGAS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ALONG                
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO                   
DEVELOP...A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS                    
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST- CENTRAL MISSOURI. INCREASED SNOWFALL             
ACROSS THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT WITH AN OVERALL 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED FROM            
KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE SOUTHWARD...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED POCKETS              
OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE                     
THEREFORE INCLUDED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO                    
CARROLLTON TO CLINTON IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED               
THE EXPIRATION TIME UNTIL 6PM.                                                  
PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH ISENTROPIC                 
DOWNGLIDE LOOKING TO QUICKLY SCOUR OUT CLOUD COVER. WITH CAA REGIME             
REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH ANY SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY            
COLD NIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF              
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAS CHANGED QUITE A               
BIT SINCE THE 06Z TAF. THE INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN HAS CLEARED                    
KMCI/KMKC WITH A NARROW SLIVER OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ON THE               
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END             
RIGHT ABOUT THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE KSTJ             
WILL MISS OUT ON THE REST OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS THE                
NEXT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW AND PASS JUST TO THE                
SOUTH OF KSTJ AND AFFECT KMKC AND KMCI...THE LATTER APPEARS IT WILL             
BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EVENTUAL SNOW BAND. THIS SNOW IS                 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AROUND 18Z...GIVE OR TAKE AN            
HOUR. THE SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND LIKELY EXIT THE KANSAS             
CITY TERMINALS BY 23Z. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AN             
INCH FOR KMCI WITH KMKC POSSIBLY SEEING 1-2 INCHES.                             
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL 3                  
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THE              
START OF THE FORECAST WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR STATUS FROM MID             
MORNING UNTIL THEY CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY LATE EVENING. NORTHERLY              
WINDS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 00Z.                                     
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-              
     MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-                   
     MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR              
     MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ043-MOZ044-                   
     MOZ053-MOZ054.                                                             
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR KSZ025.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR              
     KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                        
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER DEPICTION OF CURRENT                   
WEATHER PATTERN...INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH APPEARS TO              
BE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS            
MORNING. UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA/SANDOVAL             
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE OPENING UP. THIS CLOSED                    
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT H7 AS WELL. RUC IS SOMEWHAT                               
SIMILAR...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN H7 CLOSED LOW OVER ABQ AREA               
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AT                      
TAOS...BUT HAS ALREADY STARTED DECREASING IN SPEED.  IN ANY                     
CASE...FEEL ANY EFFECTS OF AN UPPER CIRCULATION AND EASTERLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW INTO/WEST OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS              
MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.  DID ADJUST POPS SOMEWHAT             
HOWEVER.                                                                        
STILL ANTICIPATE UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST            
AREA LATER TODAY...LEFT A FEW TOKEN 10 POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF              
LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG            
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS IN              
SOME OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
TEMPS SHOULD WARM IN EARNEST THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE                
NORTHWESTERLY AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE EASTERN                 
PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN FRIDAY...AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. WEEKEND            
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A MASSIVE             
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A            
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS                 
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE.  MOST                 
AREAS WILL RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST               
ELEVATIONS. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIGS AOB IFR                      
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30             
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS             
THRU MID DAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW              
AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PCPN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM                   
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG               
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                       
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO                   
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE             
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND                  
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT               
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN PLAINS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH            
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH                    
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.                                                  
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL                 
REMAIN AOA 25 PCT AT MOST LOCALES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                  
HOWEVER POOR VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.               
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  39  17  44  19 /  20   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  37  10  46  12 /  20   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  37   8  44  14 /  30   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  43  19  53  22 /  30   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  29  -1  36   8 /  60   0   0   5              
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  13  43  23 /  50   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  25  -4  32   7 /  60   0   0   5              
TAOS............................  32   3  39  12 /  60   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  33  14  42  18 /  50   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  16  46  23 /  50   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  39  12  45  13 /  40   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  25  46  30 /  50   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  18  47  22 /  40   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  38  21  43  26 /  60   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  20  45  25 /  40   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  42  19  49  22 /  50   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  13  41  22 /  60   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  14  43  16 /  70   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  37  21  50  20 /  70   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  32  19  46  21 /  60   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  30   8  46  18 /  50   0   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  29  14  46  25 /  60   0   0   0              
ROY.............................  29  15  48  24 /  50   0   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  31  18  50  28 /  50   0   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  31  18  48  25 /  60   0   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  21  52  27 /  60   0   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  36  17  50  23 /  60   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  34  20  50  24 /  60   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  36  19  51  25 /  60   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  41  24  51  25 /  60   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
ZONES...NMZ001-003-008-010-011-014.                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...            
NMZ002-004>007.                                                                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ012-013-016>018-020-021.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
533 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BLAST THROUGH BOTH KCDS AND KLBB TAF                  
SITES WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE 12Z TAFS AND CONDITIONS WILL GO              
DOWNHILL FROM THERE. IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH                       
IFR/LOW END MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND POTENTIALLY COULD DROP                  
INTO IFR CATEGORY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A                
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WEST OF KLBB WHICH IS REACHING THE GROUND AS                
LIQUID BUT THIS SHOULD START TO TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN                
AND SNOW BY 16Z AT KLBB TAF SITE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                 
BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL SNOW AFTER 18Z AT KLBB BUT QUITE A BIT OF                  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM ALL LIQUID TO ALL               
FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN                     
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AT KLBB FOR NOW AS THE ONSET OF                         
ACCUMULATING PRECIP IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AS FOR KCDS...              
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A BRIEF                 
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPE EXISTS FROM 17Z ON.                                
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THE AIRPORTS WILL BE STRONG                     
NORTHERLY WINDS. OBSERVATIONS AT AIRPORTS IN THE TX PANHANDLE                   
ALREADY ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.                 
STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL               
TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE MILE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN                     
LOWER...AT KLBB. KCDS SHOULD NOT SEE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE WITH                    
VISIBILITIES ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL STILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE.              
DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AMENDMENTS FOR THE TAFS AS THIS              
EVENT UNFOLDS THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN                
TRANSITION OF PRECIP TYPES WILL OCCUR.                                          
JORDAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
PREFRONTAL TROF HAS PUSHED INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS                
WITH THE STRONGER COLD FRONT STILL UP ACROSS THE CNTRL TX PNHDL.                
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE            
OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT KDHT. WE HAVE PROBABLY                 
ALREADY SEEN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED FOR THE DAY AT MIDNIGHT AS               
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD FALLING TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE DAY.  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE SHOULD               
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE              
ADVISORY AREA.  WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH            
RANGE SO BLOWING SNOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET.                            
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY               
FURTHER SOUTH...BASICALLY WHETHER TO INCLUDE LUBBOCK OR NOT.  BOTH              
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AREA OF QPF ALONG THE TX/NM             
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE 00/06Z RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW              
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND SETTING UP SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK.  THE 00Z             
NAM AND TO A WEAKER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARED TO TRY AND DEVELOP A                
TROWAL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED                  
SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CNTRL OR SRN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THE 06Z             
RUNS ARE NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.  A DIFFERENCE OF             
25 TO 50 MILES IN THE TRACK OF ANY OF THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES                
WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN                  
LUBBOCK OR JUST A DUSTING.  FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF EXPANDING THE               
ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE AS IS SO THAT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN HAVE A LOOK            
AT THE 12Z DATA TO SEE IF EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AREA IS                     
WARRANTED.                                                                      
PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET.                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CHILLY AS SURFACE WINDS                       
DECREASE...SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT              
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MAKE               
STEADY PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A POCKET OF HEIGHT             
RISES. GIVEN ONLY LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY                      
MIDDAY...MAX TEMPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT WITHIN THE COOLER REALM OF               
MOS GUIDANCE AND ANY AREAS THAT DO MAINTAIN SNOW COVER FROM TODAY               
/PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST/ MAY NEED HIGHS SCALED BACK EVEN                 
FURTHER. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THEN SINKS SOUTH WED NIGHT WELL SOUTH            
OF A BROAD POLAR HIGH BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.                  
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FLATTENING SOME BY THIS TIME...THESE            
MINOR REINFORCEMENTS OF COOL AIR STILL LOOK TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN             
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH FRI. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO GET               
A BIT INTERESTING THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE BROAD HIGH TO OUR EAST               
AND AN AMPLIFYING LEE TROF TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE VERY LEAST                  
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ON               
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.                                                   
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...CONFIDENCE HEREAFTER REMAINS HIGH IN A                  
PATTERN CHANGE SHAPING UP BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND AS A                 
SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY LOW PHASES WITH A DIGGING TROF EXITING THE            
GULF OF ALASKA. THE SUBSEQUENT LOWERED HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE                  
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD ALLOW A SHALLOW DOME              
OF ARCTIC AIR TO DISLODGE AND PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS                    
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM AN IMPRESSIVE 1051MB /PROGGED/ ARCTIC HIGH IN                    
WESTERN CANADA IS FORECAST BY THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND                   
ECMWF TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE TREND OF                 
ACCELERATING THIS FROPA BEYOND MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN RETAINED                
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN SOLID AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN                 
AND SHEER MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN THE SOURCE REGION.                       
MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD               
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF                  
ENERGY DRAWS CLOSER...BUT TOO MUCH SPREAD EXISTS CONCERNING THE                 
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 FOR NOW.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        35  18  51  23  58 /  90   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         35  19  49  24  58 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     35  20  50  26  57 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     38  22  52  24  60 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       38  22  52  27  59 /  70   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   40  25  49  26  60 /  80   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    41  25  50  28  60 /  70   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     42  24  52  29  58 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
SPUR          43  23  52  30  59 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     50  27  52  29  59 /  50  10   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/93/14                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
258 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY INTERIOR...                           
...MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THURSDAY FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL...              
CURRENTLY...                                                                    
DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC...H100-H70 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA CLEAR DOWN TO YUCATAN            
PENINSULA.  UPSTREAM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE                
NATION`S MIDSECTION IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.                
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE/LOW LVL TROF            
IS OPEN AND ELONGATED AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DIG UNDER THE BASE OF             
THE RIDGE UNTIL IT CUTS OFF.  MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS              
WILL NOT TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER 24-36HRS.  THE LATEST REGIONAL RUC              
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE OVER THE FL STRAITS/NW CARIB                
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 70%...H85-H50            
VALUES AOB 50%.                                                                 
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...                                                            
LOW/MID LVL WINDS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE S/SW THRU WEDNESDAY AS               
THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND THE TROF DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX.                   
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE THRU WED...              
BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND STRATIFORM IN NATURE.  INCREASING            
CLOUDS AND STEADY SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN/MAX TEMPS 10-15F ABV                  
CLIMO:  L/M60S ALONG AND N OF THE 1-4 CORRIDOR...U60S/L70S ALONG THE            
TREASURE COAST.  DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS ON WED...THE STEADY SRLY             
FLOW WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH MAX TEMPS              
INTO THE L/M80S AREAWIDE.                                                       
WED NIGHT...VERY MILD WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS AND                   
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MIN TEMPS WILL              
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ALG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.                 
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS                  
LAKE COUNTY VERY LATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE TO ADVANCE              
A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS EXPECTS. OTHERWISE...THINK RAIN CHANCES                
ARE VERY SLIM OVER LAND.                                                        
THURS/THURS NIGHT...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT                   
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE                       
PASSAGE. BUT BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON DAYTIME                     
THURSDAY. ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND THE               
NAM IS FASTER STILL. BOTH MODELS ARE ADAMANT THAT AN AREA OF                    
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL                   
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EC FL. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED              
NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS                 
IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FCSTS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED                   
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER. HAVE GONE 75% POPS                
FOR NORTH INTERIOR...TRENDING DOWN TO 50% FOR MARTIN COUNTY.                    
THIS ASSUMES THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.                                           
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THU NIGHT BUT KEPT                
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FCST TO                  
CROSS THE AREA LATE.                                                            
FRI-MON...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH IN BEHIND FRONT                
FRI. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A QUICK EASTWARD TRACK OF THE                  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY                  
EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT               
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR ALL SITES THRU 10/08Z...OCNL CIGS AOA FL060.  FM 10/08Z THRU                
10/14Z MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 WITH AREAS LIFR CIGS AOB FL005/MVFR             
VSBYS BTWN 3-5SM. BCMG VFR ALL SITES BTWN 10/14Z-10/15Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY009/012 HAVE DIMINISHED TO ~15KTS THOUGH                 
SEAS ARE STILL  HOVERING BTWN 6-7FT. SEAS ARE QUITE CHOPPY AS                   
WELL WITH DOMINANT PDS ~7SEC.                                                   
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WED NIGHT-THURS WITH APPROACH               
AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL                
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WED NIGHT...THEN 25                  
KNOTS THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING                  
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY                  
ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE...IS FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS                 
THURSDAY. ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS FRI                   
BEHIND FRONT BEFORE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STOUT ONSHORE FLOW SETS               
UP SAT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS.                                
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WED DEC 10:                                         
DAYTONA BEACH 85  1947                                                          
ORLANDO       86  1986                                                          
MELBOURNE     84  1994                                                          
VERO BEACH    85  1978                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  66  81  67  73 /  10  20  10  80                                           
MCO  63  84  66  72 /  10  20  10  80                                           
MLB  69  82  72  77 /  10  20  10  60                                           
VRB  71  82  71  80 /  10  20  10  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM                
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW                                                             
LONG TERM....KELLY                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1248 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZONE UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...INTRODUCE              
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND ALSO SOME MENTION FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.                    
ELONGATED SFC LOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANKAKEE IL SW TO ST LOUIS.                
TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE FAR NW PARTS OF THE               
FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS LGT AND VAR RIGHT NOW IN THESE AREAS AND               
A LARGE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE MID                 
30S FAR NE AREAS TO THE MID 40S SW AND EVEN SOME 50S BACK ACROSS                
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN CONTRACT MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND IOWA SITTING                
WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND SNOW OCCURRING. THE MELTING                       
SNOW...NEW RAIN AND MOIST BL HAS ALLOWED FORM SOME AREAS TO BEGIN               
SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS TO GRIDS...BUT WILL               
HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW UNLESS BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. VSBYS              
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD WITH INCREASED               
MIXING TAKING PLACE AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.                                 
WHILE GRIDS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE TRANSITION OF THE RAIN                
TO SNOW...THINK THE TRANSITION MAY BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW                 
TRACKING SO CLOSE. WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR THE COLD AIR TO                  
SNEAK IN...SO MORE LIKE EARLY EVENING TO START BUT SHOULD OCCUR                 
PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE IT STARTS TO ARRIVE. WILL ADDRESS THESE                     
CHANGES MORE IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS.                                                                       
AS EXPECTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED THIS MORNING                 
WITH KSBN SITTING CURRENTLY IN VLIFR CONDITIONS AS SOME PATCHY                  
DENSE FOG IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO REFLECT THIS              
AS THE AREA IS RIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH GENERALLY              
LIGHT WINDS. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN ITS WAKE BUT STILL                
REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 FT.              
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND INCREASE                
IN WINDS. HAVE ADJUST TIMING A BIT BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA AND              
TRENDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE PREVIOUS TAFS PAST 00Z ARE LEFT                
INTACT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                                               
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD            
OF A RATHER INTENSE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC                      
REFLECTION. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH AND WEST WITH UPPER 30S THE NORM IN THE NORTH...AS OF 08Z.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS THREE KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE            
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE OVER                 
MO...A TRAILING SECONDARY TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING UPPER              
IMPULSE IN WESTERN TX...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGER WAVE TROUGH              
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST IMPULSE            
IS SUPPORTING 50-60 KNOTS OF LL FLOW AT H85 AS INDICATED BY VAD AND             
VWP DATA. STRONG LL FLOW IS ACTING TO ADVECT RICH THETA-E AIR INTO              
THE REGION WITH MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 8-9 G/KG ON THE 295K             
SFC. LARGE PRECIP SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND               
ASSOCIATED STRONG LL ADV...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEING                    
REPORTED OVER MO AND IL.                                                        
PREFERRED UTILIZING THE ECMWF/SREF/AND NAM12 GIVEN THEIR CONTINUED              
CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH OBS AND WELL HANDLING OF MANY OF THE KEY              
UPPER AND LL FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. ONLY                 
FAULT THAT IS CLEAR IS THE COLD BIAS THE NAM/SREF HAVE WRT THE SFC              
TEMPS...RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO COLD AT THIS HOUR. HAVE ADJUSTED            
HIGHS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                   
TODAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. DID ADD THUNDER               
MENTION TO THE GRIDS OVER ALL IN AND OH ZONES THIS MORNING. STAUNCH             
UPPER LEVEL FLOW/AMPLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND RATHER DEEP MOISTURE               
ADV INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A TIME PERIOD OF WEAK                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWALTER FORECASTS DO DROP NEAR ZERO...SO                
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FIRST WAVE OF STRONG LIFT AND              
THETA-E ADV WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE              
AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH DRY SLOTTING LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AS THE SFC             
LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT RUC80 H5 FIELDS AND SFC 3 HR                
PRESSURE CHANGES LOOK TO SUPPORT A TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FROM KANSAS             
CITY INTO NW IN AND INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY EVENING...BEFORE THE               
NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY SHUNTS THE LOW TO THE NE. HENCE...AREAS OF              
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN                 
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE             
FA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY             
EVENING WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHING INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST. A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CHANGE              
LINE SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. MEANWHILE            
PREFRONTAL RAINS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE EAST WITH THE                       
DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTING INTO MI. BOTTOM LINE...DECENT FORCING WILL            
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW                  
EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH THE CAA REGIME IN PLACE. GENERALLY NOT                  
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS...WITH THE NW PORTION OF THE FA SEEING THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO DEFORMATION                       
PROCESSES...WITH ONLY UP TO AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED. SECONDARY                 
FEATURE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION              
OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING AND ASCENT FOR PRECIP            
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN IN/KY/AND OH. THE SE PORTION OF THE FA MAY              
BE ON THE FRINGE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                    
FEATURE. HENCE...HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS THERE.                                   
WEDNESDAY...CAA WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT CLOUDY             
SKIES WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. IN                         
ADDITION...THERE THE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FETCH/SHEAR FLOW/AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PER WEAK            
DELTA T/S LOOK TO LIMIT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A FEW TENTHS AT MOST              
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES.                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE                  
PATTERN CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL HAVE TO            
DEAL WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM AND ONE POSSIBLE               
LAST ARCTIC INTRUSION LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE MILDER TEMPERATURES                 
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY FOLLOWING A BLEND             
OF ECMWF...CMC AND GFS AS THEY SEEM TO BE IN OVERALL GENERAL                    
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE.                                                   
DIGGING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY ON NOSE OF POWERFUL JET             
EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO GULF COAST REGION AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY                
INTO GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.             
WHILE MODELS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR                     
AREA...STILL CONCERNED THAT IT COULD LIFT OUR FURTHER WEST GIVEN THE            
STRONG DIGGING ENERGY. NO INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE                  
WATCHING CLOSELY. AT ANY RATE...THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A             
LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND             
WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO RETOGRADE WEST AS STRONG                
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY            
LEAD TO A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOW HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO RISE IN RESPONSE.                                      
BEFORE THE WARMER AIR GETS PUMPED INTO THE REGION...ONE LAST                    
GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS            
STRONG STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH             
IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S ON               
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT                
EVENT IS GROWING...FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE TWEEKED POPS            
A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS COLDER AIR. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY                 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...TRAJECTORIES AND                  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                             
AS WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER OUR               
AREA AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEING PROGGED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS FOR LATTER PART OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE               
GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS IN                 
LATER PERIODS. WITH MODELS OF CHOICE SHOWING WARM THERMAL FIELDS                
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR LATE              
IN THE PERIOD...CHANGED PCPN TYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR              
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1151 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...DROPPING THE WINTER STORM                  
WARNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. VISIBILITIES DO NOT WARRANT EXTENDING             
WARNING. HOWEVER...DRIFTING PROBLEMS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE RE-EVALUATING THE ADVISORY              
BEFORE 3 PM AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE A PORTION THROUGH 6 PM             
INVOF OTTUMWA/CENTERVILLE AS ANOTHER BAND IS SPREADING NORTHWARD                
INTO THAT AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH WARM             
FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY FOR              
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS UNDER THE 600-500 MB            
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHICH              
UP TO THIS TIME HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN. LATEST RUC RUNS INDICATE              
THIS FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.              
NEVERTHELESS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN UP THERE AND            
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. HAD TO INCLUDE                           
POCAHONTAS...WEBSTER AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING SINCE THEY WERE CLOSE TO OR AT 6 INCHES AROUND 1 AM.                    
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...THE RUC SOUNDINGS WERE RIGHT ON WITH                     
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS             
WELL DURING THE TRANSITION. FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WAS GETTING CLOSE             
TO ONE QUARTER INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AND LIKELY AT OTHER                      
PLACES...BUT THINK THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL COME JUST IN TIME TO             
KEEP THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS BAND OF PRECIP              
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB                         
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WHICH THE RUC AND THE 00Z GFS HANDLE                         
WELL...MAINTAINING IT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST             
AND WEAKENING IT. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DECENT SNOW RATES              
UNDER THIS BAND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATION SLIGHTLY IN               
THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                          
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING BUT                   
DROPPING. SHOWERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE AND                     
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND OTHER PHASES ON THE WAY TO               
SNOW BY 9 AM. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE             
AREA AND REPORTS OF CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN RECEIVED                
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND              
WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FELL/FALLS.               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND CANCEL                 
AREAS AS TRENDS DEEM APPROPRIATE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING NOWHERE            
BUT DOWN TODAY UNDER CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                             
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR PRECIP            
TO EXIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO NOW HAVE DRY GRIDS FOR              
TONIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA                         
TONIGHT...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW                  
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDS ESPECIALLY IN              
AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER...HOWEVER TEMP FORECAST STILL TRICKY WITH            
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA                
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED              
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN                 
TEMPS BUT WITH DECENT FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH AMOUNT OF                 
WARMING SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD               
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...IN VICINITY OF BETTER MOISTURE. AS               
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY             
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER             
BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEAR ZONAL             
FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A              
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND.            
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/EC IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THERMAL GRADIENT              
SETTING UP ACROSS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALSO BOTH MODELS            
INDICATE MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH             
STRONG WAA SENDING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. OPTED TO                
TREND TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT WANT TO MONITOR LATER RUNS BEFORE            
MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT LOOKS LIKE                  
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS                  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLD AIR                
SURGES SOUTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...09/18Z                                                              
LINGERING IMPACTS OF STORM WILL OCCUR MAINLY AT KOTM AS ANOTHER SNOW            
BAND IS SETTING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY             
ADD TO THE VSBY RESTRICTION. WILL KEEP AT MVFR FOR NOW BUT CONTINUE             
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOWER VSBYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO             
SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                  
EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WITH NEW SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY AT                   
KMCW/KALO.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLACK                 
HAWK-CLARKE-DECATUR-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-                  
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                                      
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KINNEY                                                    
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POSITIVE TILT UNPHASED              
TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TX. IN THE SRN STREAM...ONE                   
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NE THRU THE CNTRL/LWR LAKES                      
REGION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS OVER OK/KS WITH A THIRD IN THE VCNTY             
OF SRN NM/W TX. IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SE                 
THRU MANITOBA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING -SN/DEEPER                   
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES...LES REGIME HAS                 
DEVELOPED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NRLY FLOW CAA. DRY AIRMASS HEADING            
S (PER 12Z CWPL SOUNDING) HAS KEPT LES GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT                   
SIDE...BUT THE FLUFF FACTOR HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AS AIRMASS             
IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER COOLS TO FAVORABLE TEMPS FOR DENDRITES TO               
GROW. AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWED INVERSION BASED AT 850MB WITH TEMP            
AT INVERSION BASE OF -16C...SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN SNOW TO WATER            
RATIOS THIS AFTN. LONGER FETCH AIDED BY LAKE NIPIGON MAY HAVE LED TO            
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER LES IN FAR WRN UPPER MI IN THE VCNTY OF KIWD               
DURING THE DAY AS SUGGESTED BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/WED)...                                                    
LES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES TONIGHT.                                 
SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT.               
WITH TRACK OVER THE AREA...BEST FORCING WILL PASS N OF HERE. IN                 
ADDITION...SINCE LOW-LEVEL CAA IS DOMINATING...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO            
FORCING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NONETHELESS...WOULD STILL EXPECT TO               
SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS INVERSIONS SHOULD RISE A BIT               
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH WITH            
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS DOMINATING BLO THE INVERSION.             
SO A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR (PROBABLY AT LEAST 25 TO 1) WILL BOOST SNOW              
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. BEST LES TONIGHT SHOULD TEND TO BECOME                   
FOCUSED INTO ALGER COUNTY AND AT LEAST FAR ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR             
A TIME. THIS AREA WILL BE FAVORED AS LAND BREEZES WILL RESULT IN                
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING THERE. IN ADDITION...THAT             
AREA WILL BE INLINE FOR PRECONDITIONING FROM STILL OPEN LAKE                    
NIPIGON. THE RUC13...WHICH OFTEN DOES A NICE JOB ON LAND/LAKE                   
INTERACTIONS (BUT SOMETIMES DOES OVERDO IT)...SHOWS A MESOLOW                   
DEVELOPING NEAR MUNISING LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. THE NAM AND LOCAL            
HIGH RES WRF-ARW ALSO HINT AT A CIRCULATION IN THAT GENERAL                     
LOCATION...BUT IT`S MORE SO WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN IN THE COL AREA              
WITHIN PASSING SFC RIDGE AXIS. IN ANYCASE...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO             
WATCH FOR SINCE ITS DEVELOPMENT WOULD RESTRUCTURE WIND PARALLEL                 
BANDS DOMINATING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND COULD REALLY FOCUS                   
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW. FOR NOW...WILL ASSUME JUST STRENGTHENING                  
CONVERGENCE BTWN MARQUETTE/MUNISING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PAINTED 2-5 INCH            
ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT AREA...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS COULD              
RISE TO ADVY CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW DEVELOPING DOMINANT BANDS                
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE LES AREAS...FLUFFY                      
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES.                             
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR LES...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS THE MAIN            
ISSUE. SHOULD IT CLEAR OUT...TEMPS WILL CRASH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS             
WINDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL RETAIN ENOUGH OF A NRLY                   
COMPONENT THAT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE EVEN WELL INLAND              
AWAY FROM LES. UNDER THIS ASSUMPTION...TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH             
TO MINS...NOT GOING ANY LWR THAN AROUND 5F OVER THE INTERIOR SW. BIG            
TEMP BUST POTENTIAL IS THERE.                                                   
LINGERING LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE                 
PASSES AND WINDS BECOME SRLY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS            
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALGER COUNTY WED MORNING BEFORE LES SHIFTS OFFSHORE.            
IN THE AFTN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LES STREAMING             
IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SE FCST AREA AS WINDS BECOME SRLY.                
SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW MIDLAKE CONVERGENCE THAT COULD               
SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT LES. THIS SHOULD BE MORE AN                
ISSUE HEADING INTO WED NIGHT AS SRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. OTHERWISE...             
ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADING SE TOWARD THE UPPER                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REACH NRN MN LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME AND DEEP LAYER              
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN -SN SPREADING             
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE AFTN.                                              
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM WED             
NIGHT AND THEN MIXED PCPN SCENARIO FOR SUN/MON.                                 
WED NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM INDICATED YESTERDAY TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE              
SUPERIOR IS STILL SHOWN TODAY...WITH TIMING ABOUT THE SAME.                     
HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS SLOWED UP A LITTLE BIT. RIGHT NOW...FAVOR THE             
FASTER ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH BRING THE LOW FROM NRN MN            
AT 00Z THU TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THU. THE NAM ONLY BRINGS IT               
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME WARM ADVECTION            
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM               
THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER. SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE            
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT FROM ALL MODELS...WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE             
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ). THE AIRMASS BELOW THE DGZ IS NOT ALL               
THAT COLD EITHER...WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE AGGREGATION. THEREFORE              
HAVE GONE WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AROUND 20 TO 1...WHICH RESULTS              
IN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BASED ON WELL AGREED UPON QPF FROM THE               
GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS SE             
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE COUNTY WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE                 
MICHIGAN BAND IMPACTING THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. LUCKILY THE LLVL               
FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR A BAND STAYING IN ONE SPOT...AS THE BAND SHOULD             
MOVE IN AROUND 06Z THEN STARTING MOVING SLOWLY EAST AS THE FLOW GOES            
FROM SOUTH TO SW. NONETHELESS...AN ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED AT               
LEAST FOR LUCE COUNTY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P.. WITH 850MB               
TEMPS FALLING TO -12 TO -14C ALONG THE FRONT...IT IS LIKELY THERE               
WILL BE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG IT. THEREFORE...POP GRIDS              
AFTER 06Z DENOTE LIKELY WORDING IN THE WEST AS WELL. LOW                        
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT                 
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BE AROUND.                                       
THU THROUGH FRI...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT...            
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN PORTION            
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH COMES DOWN OUT OF NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. 850MB             
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -20 TO -22C BY 12Z FRI. THEREFORE HIGHS AND LOWS             
WILL BE COLD DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH LOWS ON THU NIGHT.            
STAYED TOWARDS THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR THU NIGHT...BUT LUCKILY              
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS AND WIND TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM                      
PLUMMETING TOO MUCH. REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT...HAVE INCREASED POPS            
TO LIKELY FOR THE WEST AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH A GENERAL NW            
FLOW EXPECTED. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH ON THU...             
20 TO 1 OR SO. AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN...THE RATIOS WILL DROP SOME             
OVER THE WEST AS A PORTION OF THE DGZ FALLS BELOW THE CLOUD BASE.               
HOWEVER...THE LONGER FETCH OF WARMER AIR OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD THE DGZ IN THE CLOUD...SO HAVE INCREASED RATIOS            
IN THE EASTERN CWA. RATIOS WILL STABILIZE AGAIN ON FRI AROUND 20 TO             
1 AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS. AMOUNT WISE OVER             
THIS TIME PERIOD...IT APPEARS MOST OF IT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH                 
TOTALS PERHAPS UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE EASTERN CWA. OF COURSE THERE IS            
ALWAYS POTENTIAL FOR A DOMINANT BAND TO HELP INCREASE AMOUNTS                   
MORE...WHICH DEFINITELY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALGER COUNTY AS THE             
LAND BREEZE KICKS IN OFF OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                   
FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE AGAIN WELL ON THE UPPER                
LEVEL PATTERN...TRANSITIONING TO A WESTERN TROUGH AND EAST COAST                
RIDGE BY LATE SUN...THEN REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY             
AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A MAJOR QUESTION ON            
WHAT HAPPENS DURING THE SAT NIGHT TO MON TIME FRAME. THE 06Z GFS AND            
00Z CANADIAN NOW LOOK LIKE THE 08/00Z ECMWF RUN BRINGING A SFC LOW              
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN...WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND IT FOR MON.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE SLOWER AND REMAIN FAIRLY            
CONSISTENT WITH THE 08/12Z ECMWF IN SHOWING THE LOW CROSSING MON                
MORNING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT NO MATTER WHICH TIME              
FRAME IS PREFERRED FOR IT MOVE THROUGH...850MB TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH             
TO TURN PCPN AT A MINIMUM TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LIKELY RAIN. IT            
APPEARS THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE FASTER AND SLOWER RUNS IS RELATED TO            
A NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT...AND               
WHERE THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED. THE 00Z                
ECMWF/UKMET HAVE THE SHRTWV IN EASTERN IDAHO AT 00Z SUN COMPARED TO             
THE 06Z GFS WHICH IS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO BEING PICKED UP             
BY THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV. GIVEN THE FLUCTUATION SEEN IN THE GFS                 
DURING THE PAST FOUR RUNS AND THAT PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE 00Z GFS               
ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS               
THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. OUTSIDE OF THIS                    
SYSTEM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.                                          
SOME OF THE DETAILS. FOR FRI NIGHT...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN               
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING                 
THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. BULK OF              
THE SNOW APPEARS RIGHT NOW TO STAY TO THE NORTH...THOUGH...OVER NRN             
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE AGAIN COULD BE A BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT              
NOW THE WINDS MIGHT BE TOO SW TO ALLOW FOR THE BAND TO IMPACT THE               
CWA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES DURING THE DAY SAT WITH YET ANOTHER               
SHRTWV INDICATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS ADVECTION LOOKS                 
STRONGER...WITH 850MB WINDS REACHING 45-50 KT. IN ADDITION...MORE               
MOISTURE IS TAPPED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO MORE PCPN IS                  
POSSIBLE. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RISE TO -2 TO -4C...SO RIGHT NOW IT IS               
ASSUMED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW. WARM                   
ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LIFTS TOWARDS UPPER MI. PCPN SAT NIGHT MAY              
TURN INTO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...THEN             
CHANGE MOSTLY TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST ON SUN. 00Z               
ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS READINGS OF 4-6C OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z               
MON. GIVEN THESE READINGS...CONCERN ACTUALLY STARTS TO EXIST OF                 
THUNDER. WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT THE MOMENT...SINCE SHOWALTER               
INDICES ARE 0-2C JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MUCH OF UPPER MI MAY END UP                 
DEALING WITH ONLY RAIN SUN NIGHT AS THE ENTIRE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE               
CWA HAS 850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C BY 12Z MON PER THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. NEW               
12Z ECMWF RUN IS A BIT COLDER NOW. THEREFORE...WILL STILL KEEP A                
RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MON...WHICH ACTUALLY              
LOOKS QUITE STRONG AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -16C OVER WESTERN                  
SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE...SO FALLING TEMPS ON MON ARE PLANNED. FURTHER              
COOLING IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN               
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI. WIND FLOW GOES FROM WEST TO                
NORTH...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS              
IN AT THE SFC...SO ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.            
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM FOR THIS              
WEEKEND. HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION FZRA OR SLEET BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR            
OUT AND THOSE DETAILS CAN CHANGE GREATLY. NONETHELESS...EACH ONE IS             
POSSIBLE. 12Z CYCLE UPDATE...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH MORE               
SPREAD...WITH HALF OF THEM LOOKING MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN             
AND THE OTHER HALF LIKE THE 06Z/12Z GFS. THE 12Z CANADIAN CONTINUES             
TO LOOK LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...AS DOES THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...SO                   
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE                
EFFECT -SHSN WILL CONTINUE. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY             
AT KSAW AS NRLY WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND              
STRONGER WINDS. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS MORE TO THE NW                
TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF HIGH PRES RIDGE...-SHSN WILL DIMINISH TO               
FLURRIES OR END AT KSAW. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL LATER            
WED MORNING WHEN WINDS BACK FURTHER...RESULTING IN BETTER                       
DOWNSLOPING. AT KCMX...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR -SHSN AND                
MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E AND REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR WED MORNING               
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY DIMINISHING OF WINDS FROM W TO E TONIGHT                
THRU WED MORNING. A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 5-15KT RANGE                
SHOULD OCCUR AS THE RIDGE PASSES. SRLY WINDS WILL THEN STRENGTHEN               
FROM W TO E WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES.            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN MN WED EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS              
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SOUTH TO SW WINDS                 
SHOULD APPROACH 30 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT WEST TO NW AT               
ABOUT THE SAME SPEED BEHIND IT FOR THU. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY             
DIMINISH TO EVENTUALLY BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY FRI AFTN AS A RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI                
NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING UP TO 30 KT              
BY SAT MORNING. FURTHER INCREASING IS EXPECTED ON SAT AS A LOW                  
PRESSURE TROUGH SETS UP OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GALES             
UP TO 35 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR POSSIBLE LATE SAT. THIS TROUGH WILL             
MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN AND BECOME STATIONARY.              
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NE BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SPEEDS TO 30 KT.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1242 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 337 AM EST                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW STATIONARY               
OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER MIDDLE HIGH               
PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE HIGH               
PLAINS LOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER                     
MICHIGAN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT                  
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT DRAPES                 
SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. A HIGH IS            
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE                   
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 337 AM EST                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS TODAY. AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MANITOBA             
AND SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON                  
INCREASING 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE               
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MANEUVER INTO EAST CENTRAL               
ONTARIO AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. DRY AIR            
WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. AN 850MB                 
THERMAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S TO AROUND               
21C. THE THERMAL INSTABILITY AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL                     
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE                    
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO            
KEEP LES IN THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL HIGH RES MODEL SHOWING LES WILL             
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL               
U.P. WHERE THE LONGEST FETCH WILL BE.                                           
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL                 
SWEEP INTO THE U.P. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH EASTERN ONTARIO BY            
DAWN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE.             
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE               
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE LOWER GREAT              
LAKES BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY DAWN. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE            
WILL TRACK FROM THE MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE WEST               
END OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL             
MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA BRINGING THE 850MB TEMPERATURE DOWN TO -21C             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST AREAS AROUND THE U.P. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES            
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE                
NORTHERN U.P. FOCUSING ON AREAS MOST PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH WIND.            
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE                
OVER WESTERN U.P. RACES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE               
RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM LOW             
SLIDES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRAWING A            
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE             
AREA...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH PUSHING THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH            
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE DELTA-T`S WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 19C. THE            
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE LES TO END AND BRING WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE                  
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE BY 5F DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE               
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING INTO THE AREA             
AND INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW                       
GOING...MAINLY OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.                                  
THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE U.P. ISENTROPIC                     
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND Q-VECTOR ENERGY WILL PRODUCE MORE SNOW.             
GUIDANCE POINT TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HAVING              
THE HIGHEST RH...THUS WILL EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER THAT AREA.              
THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER                 
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE            
OF THE LOW. DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18C OVER THE WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS THE SYSTEMS SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE            
LES AS THE WINDS VEER NW.                                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON            
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE TO EASTERN                  
ONTARIO DRAGGING THE FRONT...AS A HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN               
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL LOWER            
TO AROUND -18C. THUS LOOKING FOR MORE LES MAINLY OVER AREA FAVORED              
BY LES WITH A NORTHWEST WINDS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR              
ADVECTION SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS AT THIS TIME.                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH             
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS             
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP LES GOING ACROSS THE              
AREA.                                                                           
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT TREKS EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE                
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...ENDING THE            
LES OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.                 
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRIER AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL REDUCE POPS            
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP               
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT GENERATING MORE SNOW. ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE SYSTEM SNOWS OVER THE             
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE                
EFFECT -SHSN WILL CONTINUE. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY             
AT KSAW AS NRLY WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND              
STRONGER WINDS. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS MORE TO THE NW                
TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF HIGH PRES RIDGE...-SHSN WILL DIMINISH TO               
FLURRIES OR END AT KSAW. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL LATER            
WED MORNING WHEN WINDS BACK FURTHER...RESULTING IN BETTER                       
DOWNSLOPING. AT KCMX...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR -SHSN AND                
MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING TO MOVE                 
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND THEN THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL              
PEAK AT 30 KNOTS BETWEEN THE INCOMING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...A LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL               
LIKELY REACH 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST              
HALF WHERE SOUTH WINDS ARE ACCENTUATED. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE COULD            
BE NW GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL             
DESTABILIZATION. LOOK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO FOLLOW THROUGH               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS MAY              
HIT 30 KNOTS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
319 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE                
WILL DEAL WITH THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING AND ASSOCIATED WINTRY WEATHER...THEN WITH WARMER                        
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT              
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                   
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED                     
THROUGH THE AREA OF TO THE EAST. A BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED                   
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE                 
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND                 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.              
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND CONTINUE TO BE               
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS                      
EXPECTED TO CLOSE AND DIG INTO THE GULF STATES. RIPPLES OF ENERGY               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE                      
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW TO OUR                
WEST AND NORTH WILL GENERALLY DECAY WITH TIME...HOWEVER AN                      
ADDITIONAL BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING                  
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE FILTERED INTO THE               
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE                        
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROZEN OR FREEZING. THE QUESTION IS WILL                  
THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT                
SNOW.                                                                           
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE A BIT MURKY. THE GLOBAL                
MODELS SHUT DOWN SATURATION AT THIS LEVEL RATHER QUICKLY WHILE THE              
NAM AND RUC MAINTAIN SATURATION LONGER. GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION              
OF KEY FEATURES...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES FROM WAT VAP AND IR                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT                
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS IN THE OFFING. WITH A TIGHT                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE AREA...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO                
20 MPH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO AID FREEZING...AND BLOW ANY                  
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AROUND. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE                
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...HOWEVER THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AT NIGHT               
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S. A LIGHT GLAZE               
OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON                         
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES ELEVATED/EXPOSED AREAS.                                    
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A GLAZE OF ICE AND LIGHT SNOW...WILL                    
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.                    
GAGAN/WISE                                                                      
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                   
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING               
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE                   
LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME                      
TO RECOVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THURSDAY                        
NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN THING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING IS A                     
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY.                                      
WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE              
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS WARMING INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. CANNOT                
RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE POPS IN               
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK                    
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. THERE IS                
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY               
AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD                   
RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...               
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY REMAINING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE                
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE                  
BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED                  
TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN THIS PACKAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG                  
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND LEVEL THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD              
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT              
IN BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE                   
INCREASED POPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WITH WHERE THE              
FRONT SETS UP. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE                       
FRONT...WITH RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE                 
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND IF IT DROPS FAR                     
ENOUGH SOUTH WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.                   
WISE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIG               
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW                  
WELL TO THE EAST OF JLN AND SGF...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS                 
SPREADING OVER THE REGION. BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF                
DZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO               
THE NORTHWEST OF BOTH AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL CLIP            
JLN/SGF AS IT EXITS EARLY THIS EVENING. VIS WILL VARY A BIT DUE TO              
PRECIP...BUT REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IFR/LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY            
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT...                 
IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A SLOW               
LIFTING OF STRATUS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z...WITH FULL CLEARING                   
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ066-             
     067.                                                                       
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-             
     097.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1204 PM MST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE OPTED TO REPLACE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST WITH               
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE THROUGH 00Z WED. EVEN THOUGH                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...STRONG SFC              
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL PERSIST. AREAS               
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL LINGER THRU THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...             
ESPECIALLY WHERE HIGHWAY 64 IS CLOSED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES               
SET TO END AT 18Z WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS             
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS AS WELL             
AS THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT ADJUST              
HEADLINES WHICH ARE SCHEDULE TO EXPIRE AT 00Z WED. DPORTER                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2008...                                 
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER DEPICTION OF CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...              
INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY                
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING.                   
UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA/SANDOVAL                      
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE OPENING UP. THIS CLOSED                    
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT H7 AS WELL. RUC IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR...                    
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN H7 CLOSED LOW OVER ABQ AREA BRIEFLY                 
THIS MORNING. WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AT TAOS...BUT HAS               
ALREADY STARTED DECREASING IN SPEED. IN ANY CASE...FEEL ANY                     
EFFECTS OF AN UPPER CIRCULATION AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW                     
INTO/WEST OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING...              
SO WILL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS. DID ADJUST POPS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER.               
STILL ANTICIPATE UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST            
AREA LATER TODAY...LEFT A FEW TOKEN 10 POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF              
LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG            
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS IN              
SOME OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
TEMPS SHOULD WARM IN EARNEST THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE                
NORTHWESTERLY AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE EASTERN                 
PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN FRIDAY...AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. WEEKEND            
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKING QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A MASSIVE             
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A            
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                          
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS                 
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE.  MOST                 
AREAS WILL RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST               
ELEVATIONS. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIGS AOB IFR                      
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30             
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS             
THRU MID DAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW              
AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PCPN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM                   
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG               
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                       
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.                                     
.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO                   
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE             
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND                  
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT               
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN PLAINS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH            
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH                    
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.                                                  
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL                 
REMAIN AOA 25 PCT AT MOST LOCALES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                  
HOWEVER POOR VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.               
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005>007-NMZ010>013-016>018-020-021.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
349 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHEAST                     
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR                   
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOUND NEAR THE                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED                   
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.                                                  
THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS AREBOTH SHOWING AN UPPER SHORT WAVE               
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVING                  
SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NO ONGOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS FEATURE. WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE BIG               
COUNTRY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN AS COLDER AIR              
PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND GIVEN A QUICKLY DRYING SURFACE                    
LAYER...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN               
THE VICINITY OF THE I20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW                   
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY                       
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY.                                             
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH... FAVORING THE SOUTHERN                    
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OVERNIGHT ALONG                
THE SOUTHER TIER OF COUNTIES.                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WHEREAS THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON              
MONDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO INCLUDE IT. WILL CONTINUE                
TO INCLUDE A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY PER THE ECMWF. HAVE INCREASED                 
POPS IN THE EXTENDED BUT WILL LEAVE THEM SILENT FOR THIS PACKAGE                
UNTIL THE MODELS REACH BETTER AGREEMENT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  24  50  26  58  30 /  30   0   0   0   0                               
SAN ANGELO  28  52  27  62  30 /  20   0   0   0   0                            
JUNCTION  29  53  23  64  29 /  30   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/15                                                                           
</pre> tx