000
FXUS04 KWBC 060816
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
316 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...WRN U.S...
MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TO A PSN ON THE SRN CA
COAST BY SATURDAY MRNG.  THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASOCTD WITH THIS
SYSTEM SEEMS TO ASSURE MDT TO LCLY HVY AMTS FM SRN/CNTRL CA EWD
INTO THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN WITH MARGINAL PW AVBLTY INHIBITING
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN TOTALS.  MODEL QPFS WHILE HAVING DIFFERENCES
WITH DETAILS ARE NOT SGFNTLY DIFFERENT WITH PLACEMENT.  ATTEMPTED
A 05/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GEM REGIONAL BLEND WHICH DID RELATIVELY
WELL WITH YESTERDAYS FCST.  THE GFS IS ALSO NOT VERY DIFFERENT
LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THIS FCST.
MEANWHILE...A MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP BTWN THE DIGGING
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN STREAM DROPPING
SEWD ACROSS BC LATER TODAY AND TNGT WILL BE ANOTHER MECHANISM FOR
FOCUSING PCPN FM THE PAC NW ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.  THE
AXIS OF PCPN AS DEPICTED BY MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT SGFNTLY DIFFERENT
HERE THOUGH WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL DETAILS
WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND DID A BETTER JOB YDA ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH QPF PLACEMENT.  LGT TO LCLY MDT AMTS ARE EXPECTED HERE
WITH LIMITED PW INHIBITING HEAVIER TOTALS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S....
A PAIR OF DEEP/WELL-DEFINED SHRTWVS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION...ENCOURAGING WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE
TWO-DAY PERIOD.  ON DAY 2...A DEEP CLOSED MID/UPR LVL LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE SRN CA COAST AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST.  DEEP SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE CTR WILL FOSTER WIDESPREAD LGT/MDT AMTS ACROSS SRN CA
INTO AZ AND THE CTRL GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER THE MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD HVY ATMS ACROSS THESE
REGIONS ON DAY 2.  ON DAY 3...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
AS NEG-TILTED SHRTWV FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE CTRL PLAINS.
BOTH THE NAN/GFS SHOW HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW LVL MOISTURE FLUX
VALUES EXTENDING NWD THRU THE PLAINS...WHERE WIDESPREAD LGT/MDT
AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED...AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAP A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX.  LGT/MDT AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CTRL ROCKIES AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM
DIRECTS SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE HIER TERRAIN.
AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THE ECMWF PRESENTS
ITSELF AS ONE OF THE SLOWER MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE IN CONTRAST TO
THE FASTER GFS.  THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...OFFERING MORE CREDENCE FOR A FASTER SOLUTION.
FOR NOW THE HPC SOLUTION REFLECTS A COMPROMISE SIMILAR TO THE NAM.
 MEANWHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE KICKER FOR THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DIG S ALONG THE W COAST...AGAIN OFFERING AMPLE
DYNAMICS...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED MOISTURE.   WIDESPREAD LGT
AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED HEAVIER AMTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE NRN/WRN
SPOPES OF THE SIERRA-NEV.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE ABSCENSE OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD HVY AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  WITH THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...A MODEL
BLEND WAS USED FOR THE MANUAL FORECAST.
KORTY/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 541202 542195 541187 538176 537170 533164 529159 524157
      517154 515147 514141 511135 508129 505122 504115 503104
      503097 504089 505072 503053 502049 496046 495037 491032
      486032 482036 479042 478047 476054 475064 473075 471081
      469085 466089 461092 458093 457087 458067 458063 455061
      452061 449062 439067 437069 438072 441078 444081 446086
      445089 443089 438089 433088 430085 426084 424086 422093
      421100 418101 416099 412088 413085 416079 419074 419069
      418064 418062 414058 411056 407056 401061 396064 393064
      383065 377066 374070 373079 375083 379087 383094 385096
      386099 385102 383106 374109 371112 371115 368118 363118
      360119 357117 352114 348115 348118 353127 348128 344129
      345133 346138 345144 339150 334153 330152 323152 320155
      313162 311165 311169 313174 315180 317184 322191 326198
      330208 334215 340222 347228 352233 357236 368243 384252
      391256 404260 415261 422263 427263 447258 480249 486238
      488237 491238 498240 501243 505243 509242 511239 514233
      518228 525227 533221 538215
 0.01 479865 477857 474851 470845 466838 463832 459829 453827
      449827 446830 435836 430840 425845 419856 416861 413870
      409880 407888 405893 402907 402913 407918 418915 416928
      416932 417936 423937 435931 445930 449925 452918 453911
      456911 459913 464915 469913 473908 475902 477892 477884
      479865
 0.01 447760 446757 444755 442755 441755 438757 438758 436760
      436763 436767 437771 439774 441775 442773 443771 445767
      445766 447763 447760
 0.01 478199 481195 482191 479186 477185 476185 473184 470185
      467187 465191 463194 463195 462199 462203 462204 465205
      467205 468205 471202 472202 475200 478199 478199
 0.01 439177 440173 437169 434165 432160 431151 431143 432139
      433137 437130 437127 432128 427133 422133 416130 412132
      410134 412145 412153 408160 410169 408183 407195 404201
      403205 407210 411214 415216 419222 422217 423214 425208
      427205 434200 436188 439177
 0.01 274799 263787 259782 257780 254782 247787 242794 234804
      230819 228833 228840 229844 233845 244835 248830 251821
      251815 255809 259807 263805 271804 273802 274799
 0.25 485165 485159 482153 479151 474147 471145 468142 465142
      462145 459150 458156 459160 464163 467166 469168 472168
      475167 481168 485165
 0.25 487139 486137 484134 483134 481132 478131 475131 472132
      471132 471136 471139 474139 477139 480140 483141 486141
      487139
 0.25 457223 451218 443218 439223 435230 430236 427238 424241
      427244 433244 439241 445236 450231 454226 457223
 0.25 388228 390224 390220 390213 392206 390198 386186 385179
      390172 391168 387164 386157 388153 391146 389141 382138
      376137 372140 369145 363149 358153 356159 354166 351167
      349165 343161 338160 333162 325161 322165 321171 324177
      328182 331187 334193 337204 341210 347214 353217 358220
      363225 367229 373232 379230 385229 388228
 0.50 380207 383203 383197 379190 375185 369180 364177 357178
      352180 348175 346169 342164 337164 328164 325166 326171
      329176 336187 340202 344207 353209 359206 365207 369207
      373208 378208 380207
 1.00 351200 350194 348189 346185 345182 345175 344171 342168
      338170 338174 337178 340183 341188 342192 343197 346202
      348202 351200
 1.50 344178 343177 342174 341171 340174 340177 340178 343181
      344178
24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 502666 498656 495650 489640 487637 484636 479635 474632
      468630 463630 454633 448638 446645 446649 448657 455672
      456679 456689 456696 453703 447710 445712 444717 440724
      435728 432733 431739 429746 429753 432766 431773 429777
      424778 418777 410778 406780 398784 393787 384796 381801
      379806 377816 376841 375857 376864 375874 375888 374903
      372915 371927 371935 370939 371949 372957 375959 378958
      383954 386947 388940 390908 391903 393897 398889 406880
      410876 415873 420870 425872 431871 436868 443865 451860
      454859 457861 460865 462874 462880 461890 460897 462928
      463939 464950 466962 469973 472978 477981 480982 483984
      483994 483000 481010 476022 470030 467036 465043 465048
      466052 470054 474054 480051 486046 492043 500041 505040
      510035 514025 515014 515004 513994 511986 508979 505973
      501967 498958 496945 496933 497925 498914 502899 506886
      508874 510856 510848 510842 508830 506819 503806 500795
      500789 501784 504776 508762 510752 510746 510739 509733
      509727 507714 506699 504679 502666
 0.01 485138 484134 483131 481129 472123 466121 461123 460128
      454129 451134 451138 452151 451155 451160 452163 456164
      460160 462161 466165 470165 472162 473158 471149 471141
      474141 481140 485138
 0.01 429127 429121 428118 426112 424109 416106 414103 414096
      415091 413086 413081 415077 417069 416063 415060 411058
      409054 406052 402053 396057 392059 388059 383059 381061
      376061 370058 366059 363061 363073 358079 347086 344083
      341082 336077 333075 329076 324082 321087 318089 313088
      307085 297085 292088 288091 277097 271101 268106 269110
      271114 276118 303123 309128 309133 311137 316141 317144
      316147 313147 308146 302142 296141 292140 288141 284144
      283150 284155 287160 293166 312182 319194 323201 328206
      338215 348221 355226 364229 369231 373231 377226 379213
      383213 387213 393210 399207 405202 409193 411189 414187
      418182 421176 421170 423158 422151 420147 419141 422136
      427131 429127
 0.01 402095 402091 400089 398091 397095 394097 389094 386093
      383097 377103 374093 369091 363093 355093 355097 358100
      363104 372106 383106 389106 392103 395098 398098 402095
 0.25 401147 401137 392132 386127 382122 361119 355116 351113
      349111 344103 344099 341095 339092 335092 334099 316103
      304095 299095 294096 287099 284101 284106 288106 293105
      296106 302112 306118 312121 317121 320119 323115 325114
      329115 331117 332120 333122 332125 328132 326137 327143
      330145 332146 340150 348165 353169 358170 367172 374172
      384172 389168 397157 400150 401147
 0.25 344195 345185 346171 344168 342167 340167 333165 325161
      315157 311155 306155 304159 305162 309166 313170 320174
      329179 334184 340191 344195
 0.50 387153 389147 386143 381138 378132 377129 373126 369126
      364126 359124 348115 343109 342108 338109 336111 337116
      337121 335130 335134 336139 347145 354157 360161 366161
      377155 385155 387153
 0.50 325168 325167 324165 322164 319162 317160 314159 311159
      311161 313163 314164 316167 319168 321169 324169 325168
 0.50 313114 312112 312111 310107 307108 305110 307112 308114
      309115 312115 313114
 1.00 358142 358141 357138 356137 353135 351134 350134 348137
      349141 350141 352143 355143 358142 358142
 1.00 346127 345124 343123 342122 342123 342126 342127 345128
      346127
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 522265 516244 515238 512232 509225 500210 493203 487201
      465205 461205 458203 460198 462196 465186 466180 465176
      460170 454172 451171 447166 442164 438165 431164 428161
      423153 424144 426139 423136 421136 398141 393140 392137
      393133 396132 404132 408129 411129 416131 423130 428127
      430126 432123 434116 434111 437112 444114 447110 449105
      451103 453100 449096 444096 440094 436094 433092 430087
      425084 419090 412089 414083 418078 421079 425078 430076
      434078 439075 442073 442070 440065 435060 431058 427055
      423053 425051 432048 441047 451046 458043 465038 468036
      470034 472034 482037 487038 491036 497030 500027 501022
      501999 496986 493978 490973 481962 472953 463945 454938
      444933 425923 413917 409915 403916 397917 392918 389918
      388915 389911 391903 392892 392874 389854 390839 393826
      399814 406801 417792 421789 425783 440766 447764 450763
      451764 455769 453775 450785 449794 447804 447808 450811
      452813 454815 458815 465814 470813 474810 479801 486784
      489776 489768 490751 491742 493735 496723 499705 501692
      501682 498672 498664 495656 494651 492648 487646 480646
      470656 462651 454651 452658 457674 458695 448701 441708
      439719 428729 431732 438733 435736 425739 420749 418753
      416766 415771 413776 409778 396785 386790 375799 371802
      368808 362821 361828 361838 365858 363875 364885 363890
      364894 365901 365910 366926 366932 364934 355936 347937
      342936 330934 321931 312928 306926 300929 294931 293935
      292941 293948 291964 290970 289977 288985 289990 288995
      284010 286019 289025 299034 299040 297045 292056 288062
      281063 273064 268066 264069 260073 258078 258086 260091
      263096 269104 276111 288112 294113 298116 303123 308130
      315133 320133 323131 329128 331127 333128 334131 338139
      349147 352148 354151 357156 359161 361164 365168 374178
      380181 374181 368179 362175 355173 349172 346167 342162
      336160 323157 320160 317166 322175 323180 323188 324192
      327195 331200 333204 333207 331210 329216 331222 337225
      346229 348232 348237 353243 355246 359248 367249 372249
      386252 394260 399263 404265 411267 416268 429272 433272
      437271 440272 455271 468270 480274 487278 492283 498288
      503293 507295 510294 513290
 0.01 491239 491234 491233 488231 487228 486227 484223 484222
      483222 481226 482231 485236 488235 489238 490238 491239
 0.01 441157 441153 441149 440145 440141 439140 436140 435140
      435144 434148 433152 433156 435158 438160 441157
 0.01 396192 394188 393187 391187 388186 388187 391189 391191
      393192 396192
 0.25 508283 510271 512261 513258 513254 512251 506238 502233
      499225 496221 494224 494228 497235 501238 505239 507244
      503253 500255 497253 492247 490244 486245 482249 480252
      482255 489266 499278 503282 508283
 0.25 465004 462986 461980 458975 455971 449970 441975 432977
      424976 410972 400967 392963 384960 376957 359956 353956
      342956 332961 324966 317973 314979 312987 310995 306003
      303011 304019 307023 311026 325034 332036 341035 346036
      349038 352045 354060 352071 353081 348081 343079 337077
      332076 327077 318088 282079 277079 275081 273086 273091
      277096 284100 288101 295102 300101 307103 312103 316101
      321098 332105 335113 342119 344123 349124 353124 355121
      354118 350112 346105 345095 349089 355083 364082 367084
      371088 374091 380092 389088 396084 402080 408075 411072
      413068 410060 400044 403042 408041 419038 426035 432032
      441028 446023 453018 460013 465004
 0.25 449221 448221 445220 444220 445221 448221 449221
 0.25 439243 441238 441232 441227 436222 433221 427219 422220
      414212 406210 403207 395201 388198 384194 376188 366183
      354183 353187 359188 364192 367194 374203 382210 393216
      395219 401221 404223 403226 400229 393233 389234 388238
      391242 396245 402246 410249 416250 426249 435246 439243
 0.25 415118 416114 414112 412109 408104 406104 404106 400108
      397108 395109 388112 380119 374122 369126 367129 367133
      369140 373144 375143 378141 381130 387123 392121 397121
      403122 405121 415118
 0.25 388051 394047 395046 393045 388046 383047 382046 381046
      378046 375047 378050 381051 384052 386051 388051
 0.25 346185 346182 345178 344175 341176 339177 339181 340184
      342187 345186 346185
 0.50 503271 500269 500270 500271 503272 503271
 0.50 426242 428239 429237 426236 422237 419235 416234 413234
      412234 411238 412241 415241 418241 420241 421240 423242
      424242 426242
 0.50 431024 424020 420018 419015 413002 409991 408988 405985
      394982 378979 373976 370972 367968 363966 356964 343964
      338965 334967 328971 324974 321979 317986 316995 314001
      311007 308012 307017 309019 315020 320018 327014 331013
      335013 346017 355019 361022 371026 387028 392026 400025
      405024 410023 414024 417026 420028 424028 431024
 0.50 413219 405214 399208 392202 383196 376190 368185 363186
      365190 369194 372198 377203 386208 393214 399218 404219
      408222 409228 413219
 0.50 396064 391064 384066 378064 372061 368060 364061 361065
      361069 364071 369075 372081 374084 378085 384081 389077
      392070 396064
 0.50 340099 338095 338094 335095 335099 338100 340099
 0.50 377126 376125 376126 376129 377126
 1.00 383200 381199 378196 378195 376194 375195 375196 377199
      378199 380201 383200
 1.00 397211 397210 396211 396212 397211
$$