FXUS64 KEPZ 180913
AFDELP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
207 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2003

SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.  BY MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AGAIN...DRYING US OUT AND GIVING US ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL DROP OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.


DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR NORTH A
TROF IS DROPPING INTO COLORADO AND MAY EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE INTO
NEW MEXICO...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRY TO NOSE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST.  EVENTUALLY THE HIGH WILL WIN OUT...BUT NOT BEFORE WE GET
THROUGH TODAY.  I'VE CONTINUED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.  BY
TOMORROW THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE OOZED BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
EFFECTUALLY PUT AN END TO OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS. 
AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK THE MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL HELP US BY ALLOWING A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SET UP AND HELP BRING IN SOME
EXTRA MOISTURE FROM EAST TEXAS.  AT THE SAME TIME WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVED TO OUR NORTH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THEM
DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS.  TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS SETTLE BACK
TO NORMAL LEVELS.



PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               UU 093/072 096/073 097 01000
ALAMOGORDO            UU 092/069 094/071 096 01000
LAS CRUCES            UU 090/069 095/070 095 01000
CLOUDCROFT            UU 071/048 075/049 076 21222
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES UU 088/067 090/069 092 11000
SILVER CITY           UU 085/059 087/060 089 21212
DEMING                UU 090/069 092/071 094 01000
LORDSBURG             UU 088/069 090/071 092 01000
SIERRA BLANCA         UU 090/068 094/070 094 01000

.ELP...NONE


15 BRICE