AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST                      
TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY                  
AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. A                 
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION                
WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
DESPITE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS AS SEEN IN THE SOUNDING HERE THIS                  
MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE YET TO REALLY RESPOND. THE                  
MAIN CULPRIT IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS TO BE TAKING A               
TOLL ON THE DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS STILL                  
RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE                     
CURRENT GRIDS AND MOS GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...WILL DROP TEMPS                     
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK IN LINE                 
WITH CURRENT RUC13 AND 12Z NAM12 AS PLENTY OF VIRGA EXPECTED GIVEN              
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HINGES ON HOW PRECIPITATION CAN OVERCOME                 
THE DEEP DRY LAYER. SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN CATSKILLS                 
AND ADIRONDACKS BY SUNSET. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO                 
RISE...WITH AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUING TO BE NORTHEAST..EVEN                 
WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS BEING SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL               
START AS RAIN IN VALLEYS...BUT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARD WET BULB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY              
AREAS BY SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR POU AREA.                                         
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AND SLEET OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH                
THE EVENING...AS THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AT OR BELOW FREEZING                  
THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FREEZING LINE VERY                 
SLOWLY INCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE SCHOHARIE               
VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.                  
SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.               
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN                
MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS AND SOUTHERN VT.               
NO ADVISORY FOR THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT OR                             
BERKSHIRES...AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITION LOOKS TO BE SNOW AND                   
SLEET TO RAIN...BUT INCLUDING CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN...FOR                   
FLEXIBILITY TO REEVALUATE LATER TODAY...AS PRECIPITATION                        
TRANSITIONS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN VERY MESSY. BUFKIT...PLUMES AND                  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION                    
TYPES...TRANSITIONS AND TIMING.                                                 
WEDNESDAY...RAPID DEEP WARMING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS               
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION. ALL                      
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT DURING THE                    
MORNING...AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...LAKE               
GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS TO SOUTHERN VT COULD SEE ENOUGH                     
FREEZING RAIN FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...MOSTLY IN HIGHER               
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS UPPER 30S COLDER AREAS TO 40S MOST EVERYWHERE                 
ELSE.                                                                           
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND SOME                       
SUGGESTION OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRACKING THROUGH THE                    
REGION...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO ADD THUNDER TO FORECAST YET.               
ONCE COOLING TAKES PLACE...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWER                  
ACTIVITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S COOLER SPOTS TO                    
30S ELSEWHERE.                                                                  
THURSDAY...LINGERING CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...SO SOME                  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE                  
QUITE STRONG...AND MIGHT REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY IN SOME PLACES.                
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S IN COLDER AREAS TO LOWER/MID 40S              
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
THU NT/FRI...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND                
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT...ESP THU NT.             
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE             
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH                
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED             
WINDY AND COLD...WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND FRI             
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S WITHIN                  
VALLEY LOCALES.                                                                 
FRI NT-SUN...WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF                  
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER                    
CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z/18 GFS ACTUALLY WRAPS MOISTURE AROUND                   
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MARITIME SYSTEM SOUTH...POSSIBLY KEEPING MORE              
CLOUDS...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO SUN. WILL               
NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AS ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC                   
LIFT...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAKES COULD PRODUCE                 
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST FACING SLOPES             
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED BLUSTERY...WITH MAXES            
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 30S              
TO 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT BRISK WINDS WILL                
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.                                               
SUN NT-TUE...QUITE AN INTERESTING ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING               
THIS TIME FRAME...ESP FOR MON-TUE. 00Z/18 GFS INDICATES A WEAK WAVE             
PASSING OFF TO OUR S...WHILE 00Z/18 ECMWF HINTS AT A POTENTIALLY                
ROBUST WINTER STORM FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR REGION. THE 00Z/18            
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY ARE MORE BENIGN...ALTHOUGH A FEW                
MEMBERS DO HINT AT A STORMIER PATTERN. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF                 
FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER IN CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD             
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NE             
CANADA/N ATLANTIC USUALLY FORBODES A RELATIVELY STORMY PATTERN                  
ACROSS EASTERN NOAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG BLOCKING CAN ALSO SUPPRESS THE            
STORM TRACK TOO FAR S OF OUR REGION. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO              
INDICATE COLDER THAN SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES IN THE 20S ACROSS              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.                    
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE GFS PROVE CORRECT...EVEN COLDER MAXES ARE                  
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT MINS THAT COULD DIP CLOSE TO...OR               
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH                           
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT BY TUE AM.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/WED...WITH                    
LOWERING CIGS AS OVC050 MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL               
MOVE INTO KGFL/KALB AROUND 23Z/00Z. SOMEWHAT STEADIER PRECIP WILL               
DEVELOP AT 01Z KPOU AND 02Z KGFL/KALB. THIS PRECIP WILL BE                      
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO             
DETERIORATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AS IFR AFTER SUNRISE 13Z/14Z              
AT ALL TERMINALS.                                                               
AS FOR PRECIP AND P-TYPE...PRECIP WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                
THEREAFTER...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME A RAIN/SLEET MIX...EXCEPT AT KGFL             
WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS MORE LIKELY. PRECIP SHOULD            
BECOME ALL RAIN BY 12Z/WED...EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS              
EXPECTED TO LINGER.                                                             
WINDS STRONGEST AT KALB AND REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24HRS.                
KGFL AND KPOU WIND SPEEDS INCREASING IN THE EVENING...STAYING BETWN             
4-8KTS.                                                                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WED-THU AM...MVFR/IFR. RAIN AND OR MIXED PCPN LIKELY.                           
THU PM...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.                     
FRI THRU SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A                
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY            
TONIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. THE LOW                          
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA              
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND              
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO            
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                                         
THREE QUARTERS OF THE FA REMAINS SNOW COVERED WITH THE EASTERN                  
MOHAWK VALLEY...THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF SARATOGA                             
SPRINGS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE LITCHFIELD                
HILLS BEING THE ONLY AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER.                                  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE                 
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND WESTERN MA...TO             
40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS THIS             
AFTERNOON...RECOVERING TO 85-95 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH LEVELS WILL ONLY            
FALL SLIGHTLY FOR WED AFTERNOON...INTO THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE.                 
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN A MIX OF                 
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH A                    
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE            
FA ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                
HAINES INDICES WILL REACH 4 TO 5 ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS                         
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2 FOR WED.                         
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS                       
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO            
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO              
30-40 MPH ON WED.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED            
NIGHT. THE EVENT SHOULD CONSIST OF 2 MAXIMA...THE FIRST OCCURRING               
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT FOR TUE NT/EARLY WED...WHICH SHOULD INVOLVE               
SOME FROZEN/MIXED P-TYPE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT                                  
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...IS EXPECTED WED                    
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NT. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL              
FOR 1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF BY THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS             
STILL SOMEWHAT LOW ON THE EXPECT PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMA. SINCE                 
RIVERS/STREAMS/CREEKS ARE ALREADY RUNNING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH DUE TO               
THE ABUNDANCE OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL EXIST.            
THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST                  
CATSKILLS EAST TO THE HOUSATONIC BASIN SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS. AT               
THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE              
HWOALY.                                                                         
ALTHOUGH DEEP SNOWPACK CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN            
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VT...SNOWMELT POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS            
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS                        
EVENT...ALONG WITH EXPECTATION FOR TEMPS TO FALL BACK WELL BELOW                
FREEZING BY THU MORNING. THUS...IN ADDITION TO WATCHING FOR HEAVY               
RAIN POTENTIAL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE AS                  
WELL...AS ANY GREATER EROSION OF THE COLDER AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM              
SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THESE                      
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWPACKED AREAS.                                                
PLEASE REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERIES /AHPS/                
PAGES ON THE WEB FOR DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THE RIVERS.                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT               
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-082>084.                          
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT               
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
AVIATION...KGS                                                                  
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
946 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE                    
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE                     
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON, AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING, AS THEY              
WERE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH WAS JUST WEST OF OUR              
AREA EARLY TONIGHT, AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SO, THE              
PREVIOUS THEME OF HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING WILL BE                   
CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GETS UNDERWAY IN                  
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.                                               
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS, SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO                    
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ALSO, RUC WINDS WERE USED              
TO START THE NIGHT OFF, AS THEY WERE NORTHERLY FOR MOST PLACES,                 
EXCEPT WEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCHES ATTEMPT TO            
MOVE NORTH AND KEEP THE STREAM OF MOISTURE HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION.             
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF MAX THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY             
WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST  AND WEAKEN AS THE COLD                         
FRONT...AIDED BY THE NORTHERN PUSH...BEGINS A MOVE TOWARD THE EAST              
ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST QPF STILL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND HIGHS              
ON WEDNESDAY VERY MILD WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN SOUTH. FOR                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL               
PENNSYLVANIA HEADED INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. WE`RE NEAR THE                  
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO THINK I`LL JOIN MY                    
COLLEAGUES FROM CTP AND AKQ AND INTRO A CHANCE OF A TSTM. THE COLD              
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANY LEFT OVER                  
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING UP NORTH. INSPITE OF THE            
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 40S TO                
UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY 19 TO 33.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OFFSHORE...THE SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE                        
THURSDAY...THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE HI INDEX PACIFIC FLOW WE`VE SEEN             
SO OFTEN THIS YEAR. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS MOISTURE FROM THE               
PACIFIC THAT IS GOING TO REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BY               
FRIDAY EVENING. SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ESPECIALLY BELOW 80H TO              
BRING A .25 TO .31 QPF EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD            
AND WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THIS               
EVENT ENDS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A MIX OF RAIN              
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES SOUTH TO THE DELMARVA BY             
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA            
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE UPPER CYCLONE SPINS                
AROUND WITH THE CENTER OVER JAMES BAY. OUR CHANGEABLE UPPER AIR                 
PATTER WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.                          
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE                
TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE IN                   
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH, HOWEVER CIRRUS WAS BUILDING                 
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. CIRRUS CEILINGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER                  
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER                   
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.                                                     
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON TUESDAY,             
CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND THIS SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED SOME BY A                   
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING              
HOW QUICKLY EAST SOME PRECIPITATION GETS ON TUESDAY, THEREFORE WE               
DID NOT HIT THIS REAL HARD AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, WE INDICATED SOME             
LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR KABE AND KRDG TOWARD 18Z TUESDAY, WITH A             
VICINITY SHOWER INDICATED ELSEWEHRE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A                    
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DARK                       
TUESDAY. IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH, THERE                   
COULD BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW/ICE                  
PELLETS AT KRDG AND KABE. THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE TO THE                      
UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING              
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                                     
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR WEST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,                  
EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATER                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PULL UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF                
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATING CEILINGS              
AND VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.            
THERE MAY BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY LATER TUESDAY INTO                     
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER              
IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY               
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING STORM                 
SYSTEM MAY CRUISE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WATERS, THE WINDS AND                  
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, WITH 6 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY               
44009 AT 01Z, DESPITE BEING A LONG PERIOD AT 11 SECONDS, THE SMALL              
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z OVER OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN               
WATERS TO MESH WITH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR.                                      
SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 5 FEET FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT               
AND MOST OF TUESDAY, BUT THEN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW                
WILL BUILD SEAS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM                  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS                  
OCCURS, WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE                        
SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS IS A CASE THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WHERE MILDER AIR                
WILL BE ARRIVING OVER THE COOLER WATER. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT                  
FAVOR THE STRONGER WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THERE WILL               
BE ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO HELP BUILD SEAS BACK UP BEYOND 5               
FEET. THEREFORE WE WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ONCE               
AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST FOR THE OCEAN ZONES. THE                 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL UP DELAWARE BAY SOME AS WELL LATER               
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                         
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME MORE ON WEDNESDAY             
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR WEST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE                
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, THIS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REACH             
THE SURFACE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN                 
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A COLD FRONT THOUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE                     
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR            
ARRIVES ALOFT, THIS WILL ALLOW VERTICAL MIXING TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE             
WIND FIELD ALOFT IS SUCH THAT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE               
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON FOR                 
AWHILE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AND               
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY THEN AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS.../ EBERWINE                                                           
NEAR TERM.../ EBERWINE                                                          
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE                                                           
LONG TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE                                                     
AVIATION.../ GORSE                                                              
MARINE.../ GORSE                                                                
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
...UPDATED TO DISCUSS HIGH SURF IMPACTS...                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
06Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED             
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. FROM EAST TO             
WEST WE SEE LARGE AND DOMINANT RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE             
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND TROUGHING FROM            
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES OF CANADA DOWN INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND                 
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH IS PINCHING OFF            
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A CLOSED CONTOUR FROM NORTHERN             
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.                                       
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS            
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH A                
STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM NIGHT ONGOING              
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WELL            
OFF TO THE WEST WE SEE A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM                
SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG               
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS                        
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS AREA OF             
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THOUGH TODAY BUT WILL BE              
MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS AND WILL EVENTUALLY COMPLICATE OUR                
WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY)                                                  
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND                    
CONTINUED WARM TODAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE            
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE A STEADY AND INCREASINGLY                
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATING FILTERED                     
SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH PERIODS OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF              
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE PLEASANT            
FOR MID MARCH WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S COMMON. ONCE AGAIN A FEW                
WARMER LOCATIONS FROM KTLH TO KVLD AND KCTY ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH              
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEST OF                 
JEFFERSON COUNTY ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH               
FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS.                                    
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL                
ALSO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.               
TRAILING COLD FRONT BY THE END OF TONIGHT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM            
NEAR NASHVILLE TN SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINE             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD IN             
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WOULD APPEAR              
THAT THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST               
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE              
POSSIBLE VERY LATE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN            
ALABAMA. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND KEEPING LOW                      
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. CURRENT GRIDS WILL SHOW LOWS AROUND 60           
OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER INLAND AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S                 
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HIGH SURF AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE             
BECOMING MORE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS             
TIDES RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER TODAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE                
LARGE SURF MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND EVEN SOME                 
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE ROADWAYS TONIGHT INTO                  
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. A HIGH SURF                   
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.                                           
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE            
TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO REACH OUR               
WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD IN ADVANCE. BEST ESTIMATE AT THE               
TIMING OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID MORNING TO              
LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE                
SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING                         
SHOWERS/STORMS COMING TO AN END DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ZONAL              
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH BEHIND            
THE FRONT DURING THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE                      
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                      
A QUICK LOOK AT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY            
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAMILIAR SETUP TO THIS EVENT WITH THE USUAL                
BATTLE BETWEEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR                    
PROFILES AND UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY. FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE                 
FAVORABLE SIDE...0-6KM DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE                
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND               
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED UPDRAFTS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL            
JET ALSO EXPECTED WITH GFS/SREF SHOWING WIDE SWATH OF 50-60 KNOTS AT            
850MB. SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS                 
MENTIONED ABOVE THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. BUFKIT PROFILES            
ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WITH SURFACE              
BASED INSTABILITY PEAKING IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE AND MU CAPES                
ONLY AROUND 400 J/KG. TAKING ALL THIS IN MIND...DO NOT EXPECT A                 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX EVENT ON WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER WITH THE VERY                
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO               
SEVERE CELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM              
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WHICH CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK OUR AREA FOR             
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS EVENT. MAIN THREATS WILL              
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED                 
TORNADOES. DUE TO THE WEAK FORECAST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...              
WOULD APPEAR THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE            
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER                     
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL THREAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE LONG TERM. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER FORECAST AREA WITH                  
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...WEAK                    
TROUGHING MOVING EWD INTO SE CONUS SHUNTED HIGH TOWARDS WRN ATLC.               
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRAGGING A WEAK              
COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA. 00Z GUIDANCE EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM            
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY W HALF              
CWA IN PACKAGE. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO REGION              
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY WORK WEEK. IN WAKE OF INITIAL               
FRONT THAT EXITS CWA ON WED...MAX TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLE EXCEPT FOR            
MODESTLY BELOW CLIMO ON SUN UNDER INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH           
SECOND FRONT. MINS BEGIN BELOW CLIMO IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONT AND               
THEN RISE TO NEAR CLIMO NEXT FEW NIGHTS BEFORE AGAIN DROPPING BELOW             
CLIMO SUN AND MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF SECOND FRONT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UNDER INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED BY WINDS VEERING TO             
STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW....MVFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING PRE-DAWN                
HOURS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL             
AS THE SREF PROBS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT AREA TERMINALS                 
STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP CONDS ABOVE IFR. AFTER             
DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS LIFT AND GRADUALLY SCATTER BY 15Z               
WITH BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE              
TAF CYCLE. CLOUD DECKS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM W-E AHEAD OF NEXT               
WEATHER MAKER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU 06Z.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW                   
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVER THE MARINE AREA              
TODAY. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ADVISORY LEVELS             
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS. AS A COLD FRONT            
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND             
SEAS WILL BE MAINTAINED AND EXPAND EASTWARD TO COVER ALL OF THE                 
FORECAST WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIKELY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER EVEN BEHIND THE              
FRONT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE IN              
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS             
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY AND                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  79  61  76  51  72 /   0  05  70  60   0                           
PANAMA CITY  78  65  75  51  71 /   0  20  70  40   0                           
DOTHAN       79  61  73  45  73 /   0  20  70  40   0                           
ALBANY       78  61  76  48  74 /   0  10  70  50   0                           
VALDOSTA     78  59  81  52  74 /   0  05  50  70  05                           
CROSS CITY   80  60  81  57  73 /   0   0  30  60  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR                    
     SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.                                                         
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST                     
     GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR                    
     ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING                   
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE                   
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE                 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BLOCK                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
06Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED             
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. FROM EAST TO             
WEST WE SEE LARGE AND DOMINANT RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE             
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND TROUGHING FROM            
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES OF CANADA DOWN INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND                 
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH IS PINCHING OFF            
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A CLOSED CONTOUR FROM NORTHERN             
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.                                       
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS            
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH A                
STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM NIGHT ONGOING              
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WELL            
OFF TO THE WEST WE SEE A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM                
SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG               
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS                        
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS AREA OF             
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THOUGH TODAY BUT WILL BE              
MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS AND WILL EVENTUALLY COMPLICATE OUR                
WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY)                                                  
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND                    
CONTINUED WARM TODAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE            
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE A STEADY AND INCREASINGLY                
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATING FILTERED                     
SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH PERIODS OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF              
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE PLEASANT            
FOR MID MARCH WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S COMMON. ONCE AGAIN A FEW                
WARMER LOCATIONS FROM KTLH TO KVLD AND KCTY ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH              
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEST OF                 
JEFFERSON COUNTY ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH               
FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS.                                    
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL                
ALSO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.               
TRAILING COLD FRONT BY THE END OF TONIGHT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM            
NEAR NASHVILLE TN SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINE             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD IN             
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WOULD APPEAR              
THAT THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST               
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE              
POSSIBLE VERY LATE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN            
ALABAMA. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND KEEPING LOW                      
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. CURRENT GRIDS WILL SHOW LOWS AROUND 60           
OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER INLAND AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S                 
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE            
TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO REACH OUR               
WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD IN ADVANCE. BEST ESTIMATE AT THE               
TIMING OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID MORNING TO              
LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE                
SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING                         
SHOWERS/STORMS COMING TO AN END DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ZONAL              
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH BEHIND            
THE FRONT DURING THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE                      
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                      
A QUICK LOOK AT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY            
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAMILIAR SETUP TO THIS EVENT WITH THE USUAL                
BATTLE BETWEEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR                    
PROFILES AND UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY. FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE                 
FAVORABLE SIDE...0-6KM DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE                
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND               
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED UPDRAFTS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL            
JET ALSO EXPECTED WITH GFS/SREF SHOWING WIDE SWATH OF 50-60 KNOTS AT            
850MB. SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS                 
MENTIONED ABOVE THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. BUFKIT PROFILES            
ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WITH SURFACE              
BASED INSTABILITY PEAKING IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE AND MU CAPES                
ONLY AROUND 400 J/KG. TAKING ALL THIS IN MIND...DO NOT EXPECT A                 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX EVENT ON WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER WITH THE VERY                
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO               
SEVERE CELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM              
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WHICH CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK OUR AREA FOR             
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS EVENT. MAIN THREATS WILL              
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED                 
TORNADOES. DUE TO THE WEAK FORECAST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...              
WOULD APPEAR THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE            
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER                     
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL THREAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE LONG TERM. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER FORECAST AREA WITH                  
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...WEAK                    
TROUGHING MOVING EWD INTO SE CONUS SHUNTED HIGH TOWARDS WRN ATLC.               
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRAGGING A WEAK              
COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA. 00Z GUIDANCE EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM            
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY W HALF              
CWA IN PACKAGE. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO REGION              
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY WORK WEEK. IN WAKE OF INITIAL               
FRONT THAT EXITS CWA ON WED...MAX TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLE EXCEPT FOR            
MODESTLY BELOW CLIMO ON SUN UNDER INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH           
SECOND FRONT. MINS BEGIN BELOW CLIMO IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONT AND               
THEN RISE TO NEAR CLIMO NEXT FEW NIGHTS BEFORE AGAIN DROPPING BELOW             
CLIMO SUN AND MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF SECOND FRONT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UNDER INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED BY WINDS VEERING TO             
STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW....MVFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING PRE-DAWN                
HOURS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL             
AS THE SREF PROBS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT AREA TERMINALS                 
STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP CONDS ABOVE IFR. AFTER             
DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS LIFT AND GRADUALLY SCATTER BY 15Z               
WITH BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE              
TAF CYCLE. CLOUD DECKS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM W-E AHEAD OF NEXT               
WEATHER MAKER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU 06Z.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW                   
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVER THE MARINE AREA              
TODAY. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ADVISORY LEVELS             
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS. AS A COLD FRONT            
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND             
SEAS WILL BE MAINTAINED AND EXPAND EASTWARD TO COVER ALL OF THE                 
FORECAST WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIKELY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER EVEN BEHIND THE              
FRONT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE IN              
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS             
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY AND                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  79  61  76  51  72 /   0  05  70  60   0                           
PANAMA CITY  78  65  75  51  71 /   0  20  70  40   0                           
DOTHAN       79  61  73  45  73 /   0  20  70  40   0                           
ALBANY       78  61  76  48  74 /   0  10  70  50   0                           
VALDOSTA     78  59  81  52  74 /   0  05  50  70  05                           
CROSS CITY   80  60  81  57  73 /   0   0  30  60  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR                    
     SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.                                                         
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST                     
     GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR                    
     ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING                   
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE                   
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE                 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BLOCK                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
919 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC H5 CONTINUE TO SHOW AN                  
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING                
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE UPPER LOW OUT                
WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST               
AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT OUT WEST OVER               
OK/TX. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AND OFF THE COAST TODAY                
ALLOWING THE LOCAL WINDS TO VEER AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE               
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT WEST AND THIS RIDGE WILL                
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE                
SE WINDS TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL                  
WATERS. TLH VAD WIND PROFILE (VWP) IS SHOWING UP TO 45 KNOTS (52                
MPH) JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM ONE TO TWO KFT. THROUGH THE REST OF            
THE DAY...THE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH                    
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WILL ONLY MAKE A              
FEW MINOR TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED AT                 
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ONLY              
WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL BUT GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOW                  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING. VWP DATA SHOWS 40KT AT 1KFT AND 5KT              
OR LESS AT THE SFC. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 10AM. OTHERWISE...HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING STORM            
TAKES SHAPE OVER TEXAS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...                    
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM                      
     KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL                
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM.                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO                            
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                         
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE                 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GIBBS/CAMP                                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
110 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                              
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH SE OF I-55 THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO               
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND NW OF I-55 THROUGH 2 PM               
TODAY. WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERAUTRES A FEW DEGREES IN SE IL DUE TO                
THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SE IL COULD SEE 1.5                
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THIS ON TOP OF THE              
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES ALREADY RECEIVED SINCE MIDNIGHT.                            
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TX. A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO 1004 MB              
LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WEST CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDS ACROSS              
NW IL JUST NW OF THE IL RIVER. 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THIS              
FRONT JUST EAST OF QUINCY WITH A WARM FRONT OVER FAR SW IL INTO                 
CENTRAL KY. A CONVEYOR BELT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS                   
EXTENDED FROM TX ACROSS CENTRAL/SE MO AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF                     
IL/IN/OH INTO SW PA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RAIN SOUTH OF TAYLORVILLE               
TO PARIS LINE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS FROM                 
I-70 SOUTH. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 INTO SE IA              
WHERE VSBYS LESS THAN A HALF MILE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S               
FROM THE IL RIVER NW TO THE LOWER 50S FROM I-72 SOUTH. ALOFT A                  
STRONG 555 DM 500 MB LOW WAS JUST SW OF TX WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE                  
EASTERN STATES AND WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE                     
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.                                                    
RUC AND WRF MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SE THROUGH                
IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE TWO SURFACE LOWS IN SOUTH TX AND WESTERN                
AR MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WED AS                 
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO IL. THIS TO KEEP ROUNDS OF HEAVY                    
RAINS OVER SE IL INTO WED MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINS TO OCCUR THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SE IL WHERE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN                  
FROM I-70 SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TO LESS                
THAN 30 PERCENT OVER NW IL TODAY WHICH WILL BE ON NW FRINGE OF                  
STORM SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON AS              
FRONT SLIP SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BECOMING              
NW AROUND 10 KTS. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB TO MUCH TODAY WITH ALL THE               
CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FROM THE IL                
RIVER NW TO THE LOWER 60S IN SE IL.                                             
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                               
FOG...DENSE AT BMI WITH VSBY 1/8 MILE...WILL LIFT ALONG AND WEST OF             
I-55 THROUGH 20Z. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND                 
EAST OF I-55 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS RESTRICTED TO 2 TO 4              
MILES. LOW CIELINGS BELOW 1K FT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT                  
ACROSS CENTRAL IL TAF SITES. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MID WED MORNING              
EAST OF I-55. CEILING FROM 1 TO 2K FT AFTER 14Z WED MORNING EXCEPT              
SCATTERING OUT AT PIA.                                                          
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE IL RIVER WILL MOVE INTO                     
EASTERN IL DURING MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS               
THEN TURN NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AS 1002 MB LOW             
PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AR AND 999 MB LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH TX               
MOVES UP ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.                       
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST              
OF I-55 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. COULD BE                    
ISOLATED THUNDER AS FAR NORTH AS I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER AND REDUCE VSBYS MORE.                       
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA... FINALLY               
FINISHED WITH ITS SOUTHWARD DIGGING... AND GETTING READY TO DRIFT               
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW... PLENTY OF DEEP                
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC... AS WELL AS DEEP LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM                      
NORTHWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF MODERATE TO                  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND ALL THE               
WAY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO.                                                         
RADAR TRENDS OVERNIGHT INDICATE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION               
UP IN THIS NECK OF THE WOODS HAS DRIFTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-70               
CORRIDOR...QUITE OUT OF WHACK WITH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS QPF                      
PREDICTIONS. 00Z GEM REGIONAL MODEL HAS HANDLED THE OVERNIGHT                   
SITUATION MUCH BETTER... AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS KEEPING THE FOCUS                
OF HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH TODAY.                          
STILL THINK PRECIP AXIS WILL TEND TO BUILD BACK NORTHWESTWARD                   
TOWARDS THE SFC FRONT LATER TODAY...GIVEN CONTINUED SUPPLY OF                   
AMPLE MOISTURE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE               
AREA... AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS AREA REMAINS IN                
THE RRQ OF A STRENGTHENING JET OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE              
THE EARLY GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GEM-REGIONAL... NEED TO HEDGE                 
TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN                 
LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE OBSERVED CONDITIONS. ALSO                 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE MUCH OF               
THE DAY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.                                  
KEPT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z                 
WED. THOUGH IT IS CLEAR THAT THE GREATEST THREAT AND GREATEST QPF               
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN              
0.75-1.50 INCHES FARTHER NORTH... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES+ POSSIBLE                  
SOUTH OF I-70.                                                                  
BY LATE TONIGHT... PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST... WITH             
ANY REMAINING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING LIKELY ONLY AFFECTING THE              
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.                                            
PULLED BACK ON TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LIGHT                
OF CURRENT TEMPS AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. INCREASING SSE SFC FLOW               
EAST OF I-57 SUGGESTS CMI/DNV AREA MAY STILL CRACK THE LOWER 50S                
DESPITE PRECIP/CLOUD COVER... BUT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND               
OF THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS TO END SOMEWHERE... AND THINK IT WILL                
NOT QUITE WRAP INTO THE BMI AREA.                                               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                              
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE MEDIUM                
RANGE MODELS... MUCH OF THE MIDWEST IS LEFT IN A LIMP QUASI-ZONAL               
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... AND GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO                
SHOW DIFFERENCES OF OPINION IN THE TIMING OF A COUPLE OF                        
WEAK/POORLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. GFS IS              
THE WETTEST OF THE GUIDANCE... BUT CONTINUED TO SIDE CLOSER THE                 
ECMWF AND PREV FORECAST PACKAGE...WHICH SUGGEST THE BETTER SHOT AT              
PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE A              
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI                     
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... BUT AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...                   
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DECIDES TO SET UP WILL BE KEY BOTH IN                 
TERMS OF P-TYPE AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES... WHICH COULD END UP                   
NORTH OF I-74.                                                                  
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ILZ044>046-052>057-                   
061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                        
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-                
036>038-040>043-047>051.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...BACK EDGE OF LOW                               
CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT                 
PROGRESSES...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MARCH SLOWLY EAST.                
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL STAY IN THE GRUNGE THE LONGEST.                           
OTHERWISE...CONVERGENCE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                    
RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS                  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MAKE TIMELY AMENDMENTS                        
WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
STORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA APPEAR TO BE ROOTED               
ALONG THE 850MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...ACTIVITY               
IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER                 
JET...COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS                  
WEST TEXAS. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS                  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT WITH NORTHWARD                       
EXTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ONLY APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS               
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THAT              
SAID...THINKING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST                 
OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...TARGETING                    
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY                 
AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIME/NICKEL                   
SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT                  
INTO JUST SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN                 
GOES...THINKING BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN                     
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL                
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE RESIDES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS              
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER                               
TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.                   
FARTHER NORTHWEST...NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK LIFT WILL              
PROMOTE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                      
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED                         
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                  
MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR                      
ADVECTION COMMENCES SLOWLY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE              
REMAINS LOW ON EXACTLY WHEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE                
LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HOW MUCH THEY`LL IMPROVE. WILL MAKE                  
TIMELY AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.                                         
ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS AND              
MISSOURI...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG PROGRESSING                  
FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS              
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS.                                                                          
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING              
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.                                                
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A POWERFUL UPPER LOW SITUATED                
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE               
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A            
LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TX WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHING FROM              
NORTHWEST MO THROUGH CENTRAL OK.                                                
TONIGHT-TUE:                                                                    
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY               
EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS(INCLUDING RUC) ARE IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF LOCATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH DOES              
LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE 300K SURFACE             
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS AND               
FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MO AND AR. SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES             
AT THIS TIME WITH THE THINKING THAT PRECIP OVER SE KS MAY CAUSE SOME            
MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS AT BEST...WITH THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRING TO OUR EAST.                                     
NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.            
SINCE WE`VE STAYED GRUNGED-OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND                              
SHOWERS/STORMS...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION MODELS ARE            
NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS            
THAT SPEED SHEAR FROM 850MB-500MB MAYBE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME             
DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL OVER SE KS.                                            
BY TUE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER EXTREME SW TX              
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX                  
REGION INTO THE OZARKS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRONG JET WILL BE                
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PLACING THE OZARK                 
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WITH THE MODELS                 
RESPONDING TO THIS BY BACKING THE 850MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR EAST. FOR OUR AREA             
ONLY EXTREME SE KS WILL HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAYING DRY ON TUE.                                       
WED-THU:                                                                        
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY              
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA            
TO DRY OUT. FOR THU THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.                                        
FRI-MON:                                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH SAT WITH BOTH THE                
ECMWF AND GFS SWINGING THROUGH A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MO BY SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY                
SPARK OFF SOME PRECIP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WHICH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST            
ALREADY HAD IN. IN ADDITION BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SPILLING SOME            
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR SAT AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH THIS              
WAVE WELL TO OUR EAST ON SUN...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE-IN OVER THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD TOOK PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST FOR            
SUN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW FOR MON...AM FAIRLY             
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LEE TROUGHING AND ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPS.                                                                          
LAWSON                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT                     
SEVERAL SITES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE                      
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY               
AT KICT AND KCNU...WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WITH                   
ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO MOVE OUT...CLEARING WILL BE               
VERY SLOW...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING AT NORTHWEST SITES ON TUE                
MORNING. -HOWERTON                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    39  54  36  64 /  40  10   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      34  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
NEWTON          37  54  36  63 /  30  10   0  10                                
ELDORADO        39  53  36  62 /  50  10   0  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  52  37  64 /  60  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL         32  55  30  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      32  55  32  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     46  53  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         44  51  35  60 /  90  40  20  10                                
IOLA            42  51  35  60 /  90  30  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    45  52  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
918 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA APPEAR TO BE ROOTED               
ALONG THE 850MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...ACTIVITY               
IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER                 
JET...COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS                  
WEST TEXAS. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS                  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT WITH NORTHWARD                       
EXTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ONLY APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS               
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THAT              
SAID...THINKING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST                 
OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...TARGETING                    
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY                 
AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIME/NICKEL                   
SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT                  
INTO JUST SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN                 
GOES...THINKING BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN                     
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL                
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE RESIDES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS              
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER                               
TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.                   
FARTHER NORTHWEST...NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK LIFT WILL              
PROMOTE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                      
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED                         
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                  
MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR                      
ADVECTION COMMENCES SLOWLY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE              
REMAINS LOW ON EXACTLY WHEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE                
LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HOW MUCH THEY`LL IMPROVE. WILL MAKE                  
TIMELY AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.                                         
ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS AND              
MISSOURI...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG PROGRESSING                  
FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS              
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS.                                                                          
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING              
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.                                                
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A POWERFUL UPPER LOW SITUATED                
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE               
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A            
LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TX WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHING FROM              
NORTHWEST MO THROUGH CENTRAL OK.                                                
TONIGHT-TUE:                                                                    
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY               
EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS(INCLUDING RUC) ARE IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF LOCATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH DOES              
LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE 300K SURFACE             
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS AND               
FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MO AND AR. SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES             
AT THIS TIME WITH THE THINKING THAT PRECIP OVER SE KS MAY CAUSE SOME            
MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS AT BEST...WITH THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRING TO OUR EAST.                                     
NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.            
SINCE WE`VE STAYED GRUNGED-OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND                              
SHOWERS/STORMS...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION MODELS ARE            
NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS            
THAT SPEED SHEAR FROM 850MB-500MB MAYBE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME             
DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL OVER SE KS.                                            
BY TUE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER EXTREME SW TX              
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX                  
REGION INTO THE OZARKS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRONG JET WILL BE                
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PLACING THE OZARK                 
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WITH THE MODELS                 
RESPONDING TO THIS BY BACKING THE 850MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR EAST. FOR OUR AREA             
ONLY EXTREME SE KS WILL HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAYING DRY ON TUE.                                       
WED-THU:                                                                        
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY              
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA            
TO DRY OUT. FOR THU THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.                                        
FRI-MON:                                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH SAT WITH BOTH THE                
ECMWF AND GFS SWINGING THROUGH A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MO BY SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY                
SPARK OFF SOME PRECIP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WHICH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST            
ALREADY HAD IN. IN ADDITION BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SPILLING SOME            
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR SAT AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH THIS              
WAVE WELL TO OUR EAST ON SUN...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE-IN OVER THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD TOOK PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST FOR            
SUN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW FOR MON...AM FAIRLY             
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LEE TROUGHING AND ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPS.                                                                          
LAWSON                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT                     
SEVERAL SITES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE                      
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY               
AT KICT AND KCNU...WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WITH                   
ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO MOVE OUT...CLEARING WILL BE               
VERY SLOW...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING AT NORTHWEST SITES ON TUE                
MORNING. -HOWERTON                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    39  54  36  64 /  40  10   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      34  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
NEWTON          37  54  36  63 /  30  10   0  10                                
ELDORADO        39  53  36  62 /  50  10   0  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  52  37  64 /  60  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL         32  55  30  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      32  55  32  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     46  53  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         44  51  35  60 /  90  40  20  10                                
IOLA            42  51  35  60 /  90  30  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    45  52  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
702 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED                         
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                  
MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR                      
ADVECTION COMMENCES SLOWLY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE              
REMAINS LOW ON EXACTLY WHEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE                
LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HOW MUCH THEY`LL IMPROVE. WILL MAKE                  
TIMELY AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.                                         
ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS AND              
MISSOURI...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG PROGRESSING                  
FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS              
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS.                                                                          
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING              
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.                                                
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A POWERFUL UPPER LOW SITUATED                
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE               
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A            
LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TX WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHING FROM              
NORTHWEST MO THROUGH CENTRAL OK.                                                
TONIGHT-TUE:                                                                    
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY               
EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS(INCLUDING RUC) ARE IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF LOCATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH DOES              
LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE 300K SURFACE             
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS AND               
FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MO AND AR. SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES             
AT THIS TIME WITH THE THINKING THAT PRECIP OVER SE KS MAY CAUSE SOME            
MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS AT BEST...WITH THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRING TO OUR EAST.                                     
NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.            
SINCE WE`VE STAYED GRUNGED-OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND                              
SHOWERS/STORMS...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION MODELS ARE            
NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS            
THAT SPEED SHEAR FROM 850MB-500MB MAYBE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME             
DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL OVER SE KS.                                            
BY TUE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER EXTREME SW TX              
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX                  
REGION INTO THE OZARKS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRONG JET WILL BE                
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PLACING THE OZARK                 
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WITH THE MODELS                 
RESPONDING TO THIS BY BACKING THE 850MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR EAST. FOR OUR AREA             
ONLY EXTREME SE KS WILL HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAYING DRY ON TUE.                                       
WED-THU:                                                                        
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY              
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA            
TO DRY OUT. FOR THU THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.                                        
FRI-MON:                                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH SAT WITH BOTH THE                
ECMWF AND GFS SWINGING THROUGH A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MO BY SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY                
SPARK OFF SOME PRECIP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WHICH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST            
ALREADY HAD IN. IN ADDITION BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SPILLING SOME            
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR SAT AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH THIS              
WAVE WELL TO OUR EAST ON SUN...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE-IN OVER THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD TOOK PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST FOR            
SUN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW FOR MON...AM FAIRLY             
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LEE TROUGHING AND ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPS.                                                                          
LAWSON                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT                     
SEVERAL SITES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE                      
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY               
AT KICT AND KCNU...WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WITH                   
ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM BEING SLOW TO MOVE OUT...CLEARING WILL BE               
VERY SLOW...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING AT NORTHWEST SITES ON TUE                
MORNING. -HOWERTON                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    39  54  36  64 /  20  10   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      33  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
NEWTON          36  54  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
ELDORADO        38  53  36  62 /  40  10   0  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  52  37  64 /  40  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL         31  55  30  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      30  55  32  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       34  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     47  53  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         44  51  35  60 /  90  40  20  10                                
IOLA            42  51  35  60 /  90  30  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    46  52  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
321 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING              
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.                                                
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A POWERFUL UPPER LOW SITUATED                
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE               
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A            
LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TX WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHING FROM              
NORTHWEST MO THROUGH CENTRAL OK.                                                
TONIGHT-TUE:                                                                    
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY               
EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS(INCLUDING RUC) ARE IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF LOCATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH DOES              
LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE 300K SURFACE             
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS AND               
FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MO AND AR. SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES             
AT THIS TIME WITH THE THINKING THAT PRECIP OVER SE KS MAY CAUSE SOME            
MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS AT BEST...WITH THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRING TO OUR EAST.                                     
NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.            
SINCE WE`VE STAYED GRUNGED-OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND                              
SHOWERS/STORMS...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION MODELS ARE            
NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS            
THAT SPEED SHEAR FROM 850MB-500MB MAYBE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME             
DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL OVER SE KS.                                            
BY TUE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER EXTREME SW TX              
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX                  
REGION INTO THE OZARKS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRONG JET WILL BE                
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PLACING THE OZARK                 
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WITH THE MODELS                 
RESPONDING TO THIS BY BACKING THE 850MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR EAST. FOR OUR AREA             
ONLY EXTREME SE KS WILL HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE AREA STAYING DRY ON TUE.                                       
WED-THU:                                                                        
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY              
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA            
TO DRY OUT. FOR THU THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.                                        
FRI-MON:                                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH SAT WITH BOTH THE                
ECMWF AND GFS SWINGING THROUGH A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MO BY SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY                
SPARK OFF SOME PRECIP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WHICH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST            
ALREADY HAD IN. IN ADDITION BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SPILLING SOME            
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR SAT AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH THIS              
WAVE WELL TO OUR EAST ON SUN...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE-IN OVER THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD TOOK PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST FOR            
SUN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW FOR MON...AM FAIRLY             
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LEE TROUGHING AND ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPS.                                                                          
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO IIFR CONDITION AT SEVERAL SITES AND               
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE                 
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KICT AND KCNU...WITH              
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM BEING             
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW...WITH ONLY PARTIAL               
CLEARING AT NORTHWEST SITES ON TUE MORNING. -HOWERTON                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    39  54  36  64 /  20  10   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      33  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
NEWTON          36  54  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
ELDORADO        38  53  36  62 /  40  10   0  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  52  37  64 /  40  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL         31  55  30  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      30  55  32  64 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          35  55  36  63 /  20  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       34  55  36  63 /  20  10   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     47  53  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         44  51  35  60 /  90  40  20  10                                
IOLA            42  51  35  60 /  90  30  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    46  52  35  61 /  90  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1256 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS A WHILE AGO AND WILL LIKELY UPDATE AGAIN IN THE NEXT              
HOUR. RUC AND 1200 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOW                        
PRECIPITATION VERY GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST KS. APPEARS                
THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING...BUT GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM              
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 700 ELEVATED CONVECTIVE                 
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY. SO FAR THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL WIND                
PROFILES HAVE NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL PRODUCTION...HOWEVER                     
PROFILES AND GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO                     
SUGGEST THIS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF         
SEVERE THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WILL LIKELY TRIM               
AREA A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN.                  
HOWEVER 1200 UTC MODELS SUGGEST LESS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH               
DECREASING BAROCLINICITY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR                   
TRENDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE HOISTING FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.                    
-HOWERTON                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LED TO IIFR CONDITION AT SEVERAL SITES AND               
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE                 
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KICT AND KCNU...WITH              
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM BEING             
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW...WITH ONLY PARTIAL               
CLEARING AT NORTHWEST SITES ON TUE MORNING. -HOWERTON                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS               
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF                 
THE DAY. CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THUNDER END FIRST...BUT LIGHT                  
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR                   
CEILINGS. HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE AT                 
EACH SITE AS THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD                       
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS                
COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH                   
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                                   
SCHRECK                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY AND                
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                                         
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER AZ/NM EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LEAD                
IMPULSE BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH                   
PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT ELEVATED MOISTURE                   
NORTHWARD THRU THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS RESULTING              
RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED CAPE                 
VALUES OF 700 TO 900 J/KG PROGGED BY THE GFS BY 12Z...WITH STRONG               
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS                  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THRU 12Z...AND EXPAND                    
QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY. THE                   
GIVEN SHEAR AND EXPECTED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG                
AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT FURTHER                  
NORTHWEST OF CURRENT SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AREA. BEST LIFT/FORCING                  
TO SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH                 
RELATIVE DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND LIKEWISE POP FORECAST.                  
PREVALENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF                 
DEVELOPMENTAL SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                     
EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                        
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN                       
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING                  
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN RENEWED/INCREASE COVERAGE IN                     
CONVECTION FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SOME                 
OF WHICH MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS.                             
MEANWHILE...DRIER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS                
WILL RESULT IN SQUEEZE PLAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR                         
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THEREFORE WILL SHOW A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT                   
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND LIKEWISE QPF GRADIENT               
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST                   
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES                     
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT ENDING FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.                       
DRIER/MILDER WEATHER ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE                  
TO OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.                                               
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...BUSY 24 HOURS FOR AREA AIRPORT                 
TERMINALS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ESPECIALLY                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...PER                  
50KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ATTENDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY                    
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO               
BREAK OUT AFTER 09-10Z (4-5AM) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE                   
AREA. AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO                         
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL THE                    
PRIMARY THREAT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH                        
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY FALL TO MVFR              
TO IFR CATEGORIES...LOWEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS...AND                
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION                      
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                                                  
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    50  40  54  34 / 100  60  30   0                                
HUTCHINSON      44  34  53  32 / 100  50  20   0                                
NEWTON          46  36  52  32 / 100  60  20   0                                
ELDORADO        51  39  52  33 / 100  70  30   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  42  54  35 / 100  70  40   0                                
RUSSELL         41  30  54  28 / 100  30  10   0                                
GREAT BEND      42  32  54  30 / 100  30  10   0                                
SALINA          45  34  54  31 / 100  40  10   0                                
MCPHERSON       44  34  53  31 / 100  50  20   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     64  48  55  37 / 100  90  60  10                                
CHANUTE         58  43  53  34 / 100  90  60  10                                
IOLA            57  43  53  34 / 100  90  60  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    61  46  54  36 / 100  90  60  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1145 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1004 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS DROPPED OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING DECREASING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE                 
CANCELLED ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE FA AND UPDATED POPS AND                    
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. LEFT A CHC -SN AND PATCHY                
FRZG DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH              
CHC -RA AND FOG ELSEWHERE.                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
234 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PHASE THROUGH              
THE DAY. SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP INTO                    
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE               
SNOWFIELD. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE BUT SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED               
PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXCEPTION           
TO THIS FLOW AND THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF LOW OVER THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT IS ONLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AT               
THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA            
WITH THE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.                                  
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE JET FROM THE PACIFIC              
INTO OUR AREA. VERY STRONG JET...150 TO 160 KNOTS...PUSHING INTO                
THE AREA. JET WINDS ARE STRONG ON THE WEST SIDE OF INCOMING UPPER               
TROUGH BUT ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ON THE EAST SIDE. WOULD GIVE THE             
EDGE TO THE NAM/GFS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SEGMENT OF THE JET BEHIND               
THE TROUGH. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/RUC WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER              
THAN THE ECWMF/UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THEIR                  
PROBLEMS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD TO OUR SOUTH...AND ALSO WERE A                  
LITTLE WARM WITH THE AIR MASS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE GFS/UKMET                   
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE WIND FIELD.                         
RIGHT THE GFS FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND EVEN PRECIPITATION FIELD              
...EVEN THOUGH THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE OVERDONE...ARE MATCHING UP WELL              
WITH RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW. THE GFS WITH               
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF/HPC PRECIPITATION...SUPPORTS CURRENT                 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST/HIGHLIGHTS WELL. WILL BE BLENDING THE GFS                
WITH REALITY FOR THE INITIALLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WILL            
GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL OUTPUT...MAINLY GFS/UKMET...FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                                                      
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS              
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. AS STATED ABOVE...GFS SUPPORTING            
CURRENT FORECAST. FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW BEST                      
PARAMETERS CORRESPONDING TO THE WARNING AREA. SHOULD BE GETTING A               
GOOD BURST OF PRECIPITATION FROM NOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE                    
MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING ON...WEAKER MESOSCALE AND STRONGER                   
SYNOPTIC LIFT PREVAIL. HOWEVER...POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS              
DRYING OUT ABOVE 700 MB. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDE IN THE               
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z. WILL PROBABLY KEEP A                   
MENTION OF MEASURABLE THERE WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.                                         
CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE LONG. HOWEVER...DUE TO            
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE...AND CURRENT RADAR                 
TRENDS...WILL LEAVE IT OUT THROUGH 00Z. WOULD RATHER HAVE IT GO TOO             
LONG THAN NOT LONG ENOUGH. WILL MONTIOR TRENDS FOR NEAR RED WILLOW              
COUNTY. IF SNOW PICKS UP MORE...MAY UPGRADE THEM LATER TO A WARNING.            
DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOING NEAR               
THE SIMILAR GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.                                          
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK TO HAVE PLENT OF SUN. HOWEVER...UPPER              
TROUGH AND JET AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF US. ALSO WIND WILL BE                  
BLOWING OFF OF SNOW FIELD TO OUR NORTHWEST. WILL PROBABLY END UP                
GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE NEAR AND IN THE EXPECTED SNOW             
FIELD. CAN SEE WHERE THE NAM HAS THE SNOW FIELD WITH THE COLD 2                 
METER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING IT.               
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE                
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE GFS/MAV REALLY WARMS UP THE MAXES WITH NAM                 
HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. THAT MAY BE CORRECT IN THE                
DEEPER SNOW COVER BUT BELIEVE IT IS OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF THE               
COLDER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS                
WHICH MAY BRING SOME COOLER OFF THE SNOW FIELD. WILL PLAY FOR                   
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST HALF AND WARMER                   
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.                                             
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1145 MDT MAR 17 2008 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...                                        
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES AS CEILINGS CONTINUE              
TO HOVER BETWEEN 300-500 FT WITH VIS AROUND 3SM. WILL SEE                       
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BOTH CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE TO            
MVFR THROUGH 00Z AND THEN AFTER 06Z TO VFR.  MOST OF THE                        
PRECIPITATION MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS                      
MORNING...BUT AM SEEING SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER THE KS/CO BORDER              
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                    
KTB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
538 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
234 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PHASE THROUGH              
THE DAY. SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP INTO                    
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE               
SNOWFIELD. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE BUT SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED               
PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXCEPTION           
TO THIS FLOW AND THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF LOW OVER THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THAT IS ONLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AT               
THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA            
WITH THE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.                                  
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE JET FROM THE PACIFIC              
INTO OUR AREA. VERY STRONG JET...150 TO 160 KNOTS...PUSHING INTO                
THE AREA. JET WINDS ARE STRONG ON THE WEST SIDE OF INCOMING UPPER               
TROUGH BUT ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ON THE EAST SIDE. WOULD GIVE THE             
EDGE TO THE NAM/GFS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SEGMENT OF THE JET BEHIND               
THE TROUGH. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/RUC WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER              
THAN THE ECWMF/UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THEIR                  
PROBLEMS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD TO OUR SOUTH...AND ALSO WERE A                  
LITTLE WARM WITH THE AIR MASS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE GFS/UKMET                   
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE WIND FIELD.                         
RIGHT THE GFS FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND EVEN PRECIPITATION FIELD              
...EVEN THOUGH THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE OVERDONE...ARE MATCHING UP WELL              
WITH RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW. THE GFS WITH               
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF/HPC PRECIPITATION...SUPPORTS CURRENT                 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST/HIGHLIGHTS WELL. WILL BE BLENDING THE GFS                
WITH REALITY FOR THE INITIALLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WILL            
GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL OUTPUT...MAINLY GFS/UKMET...FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                                                      
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS              
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. AS STATED ABOVE...GFS SUPPORTING            
CURRENT FORECAST. FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW BEST                      
PARAMETERS CORRESPONDING TO THE WARNING AREA. SHOULD BE GETTING A               
GOOD BURST OF PRECIPITATION FROM NOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE                    
MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING ON...WEAKER MESOSCALE AND STRONGER                   
SYNOPTIC LIFT PREVAIL. HOWEVER...POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS              
DRYING OUT ABOVE 700 MB. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDE IN THE               
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z. WILL PROBABLY KEEP A                   
MENTION OF MEASURABLE THERE WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.                                         
CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE LONG. HOWEVER...DUE TO            
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE...AND CURRENT RADAR                 
TRENDS...WILL LEAVE IT OUT THROUGH 00Z. WOULD RATHER HAVE IT GO TOO             
LONG THAN NOT LONG ENOUGH. WILL MONTIOR TRENDS FOR NEAR RED WILLOW              
COUNTY. IF SNOW PICKS UP MORE...MAY UPGRADE THEM LATER TO A WARNING.            
DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOING NEAR               
THE SIMILAR GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.                                          
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOK TO HAVE PLENT OF SUN. HOWEVER...UPPER              
TROUGH AND JET AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF US. ALSO WIND WILL BE                  
BLOWING OFF OF SNOW FIELD TO OUR NORTHWEST. WILL PROBABLY END UP                
GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE NEAR AND IN THE EXPECTED SNOW             
FIELD. CAN SEE WHERE THE NAM HAS THE SNOW FIELD WITH THE COLD 2                 
METER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING IT.               
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE                
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE GFS/MAV REALLY WARMS UP THE MAXES WITH NAM                 
HOLDING ONTO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. THAT MAY BE CORRECT IN THE                
DEEPER SNOW COVER BUT BELIEVE IT IS OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF THE               
COLDER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS                
WHICH MAY BRING SOME COOLER OFF THE SNOW FIELD. WILL PLAY FOR                   
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST HALF AND WARMER                   
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.                                             
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
538 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2008 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING WINTER WX                 
PRIMARY CONCERN AS FAIRLY COMPLICATED SCENARIO ONGOING ACROSS THE               
CWA THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO              
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AROUND H65. THIS AREA HOVERS AROUND KGLD                  
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING TO THE WEST AS NEXT                  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY CONFRIMS MODEL FORECASTS OF DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE                    
AREA...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR PRODUCTS               
SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE IS FURTHER DESTABILIZING THINGS              
RATHER THAN DECREASING PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PROBALILTY OF                     
IFR/LIFR CONDTIONS WILL BE BEFORE 16Z AS LLJ AND AFFORMENTIONED                 
FORCING BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT                        
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AT THIS                   
POINT WILL JUST KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS                
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF -FZDZ THROUGH THE DAY.                        
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR KSZ003-015-028-041.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027.                                                
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR NEZ079-080.                                                            
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     COZ090>092.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1204 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...BUSY 24 HOURS FOR AREA AIRPORT                 
TERMINALS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ESPECIALLY                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...PER                  
50KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ATTENDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY                    
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO               
BREAK OUT AFTER 09-10Z (4-5AM) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE                   
AREA. AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO                         
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL THE                    
PRIMARY THREAT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH                        
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY FALL TO MVFR              
TO IFR CATEGORIES...LOWEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS...AND                
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION                      
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                                                  
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
00Z RAOBS OUT OF OUN AND FWD INDICATE MODELS ARE OVERDOING 850MB                
MOISTURE BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE LATEST                  
RUC MODEL SOLUTION MAKES ME BELIEVE THE MARGINAL SEVERE                         
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR LATE TONIGHT HAS DECREASED JUST A TAD AND               
SHIFTED SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG                     
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE               
NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...STILL THINKING ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND 800-750MB WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG               
BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                  
THROW IN EXPECTED AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AM STILL THINKING                 
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE                    
AFTER 4 AM ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                   
AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.                        
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...BUSY 24 HOURS ANTICIPATED OVER                 
CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE NORTH                        
TONIGHT...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT. LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER               
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ROOTED AROUND 800-750MB...HAS ALREADY SURGED               
AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PER STRATOCUMULUS VIA SATELLITE                
IMAGERY/ASOS SITES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                     
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT BY 07-10Z (2-5AM) FROM                       
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND                
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                     
STORMS...WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THE PRIMARY THREAT.                       
ADDITIONALLY...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND                    
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW CIGS TO DROP BELOW 2000                 
FT AGL BY 05-08Z (MIDNIGHT-2AM)...LOWEST FOR RSL TAF WHERE UPSLOPE              
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. OFF AND ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                 
CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING...AS BEST               
LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES SLOWLY                
EAST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.                                 
WILL MAKE TIMELY AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT:                                                              
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU                 
EARLY TUE...ESPECIALLY IN SE KS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO                  
EVOLVE AS ANTICIPATED OVER PAST 2 DAYS...WITH VERY INTENSE UPPER-               
DECK TROF SITUATED OVER WRN U.S. PROGRESSING EVER SO SLOWLY E                   
TOWARD ROCKIES. VERY DEEP UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER                 
WRN RIO GRANDE MON NIGHT THAT WILL INDUCE STRONG N/NE SFC-850MB                 
MOISTURE SURGE THAT`LL TARGET SE KS MON & MON NIGHT. IN                         
ADDITION...THE INCREASING & GRADUALLY VEERING LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL              
PROMOTE WARM FRONTOGENESIS FROM SFC LOW...PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED              
OVER TX PANHANDLE MON MORNING...NE ACROSS FAR SC TO SE KS. THE                  
FRONT MAY LIFT TO ALMOST THE I-70 CORRIDOR MON AFTERNOON AT WHICH               
TIME IT`LL PIVOT & SURGE SE AS COLD FRONT MON EVENING. THE DEEP-                
LAYER SHEAR OVER SC & SE KS...ESPECIALLY THE DIRECTIONAL                        
VARIANT...WILL BE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE TSRA OCCURRING OVER SE KS               
MON AFTERNOON & MON EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE                   
PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER SC & SE KS INCREASE                    
GREATLY TO 1.25 TO 1.33 INCHES ON MON...& WHEN COUPLED WITH                     
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE A                   
VIRTUAL CERTAINTY. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD/FLASH                   
FLOOD WATCH FOR SE KS AS IT APPEARS LOWER DECK MOISTURE AXIS WILL               
BE SHUNTING SE OF THIS AREA LATE MON NIGHT. AS SUCH EXPECT                      
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL TO                  
TARGET THE SERN PLAINS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NE ACROSS                       
SRN/CENTRAL MO. REGARDLESS...THE BEHAVIOR OF SE KS RIVERS SUCH AS               
THE NEOSHO WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING LATE MON NIGHT & TUE.                  
WED-FRI:                                                                        
QUIET WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS AS VERY INTENSE MID-UPPER TROF SURGES            
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WED MORNING LEAVING ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN IT`S            
WAKE. TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST CASES.                      
NEXT WEEKEND:                                                                   
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RA/TSRA APPEARS TICKETED FOR THE REGION NEXT SAT            
& SUNDAY. A MID-UPPER DECK TROF WILL STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES           
SE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEREBY INDUCING            
SFC-850MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER W TX/TX PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT & SAT. SFC            
TO 850-MB COLD FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES EARLY SAT WITH THE SW-NE ORIENTED           
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS C/SC KS TO NRN MO ~12NOON SAT.           
AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS SE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT WILL             
LIKEWISE SURGE SE ACROSS SE KS SAT AFTERNOON & EVENING THAT SHOULD              
ENCOURAGE INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BEING A DAYS 6-7 FORECAST WILL           
ASSIGN GENERIC ~30% TO MOST AREAS AND LOWER SAT`S HIGHS ACROSS C KS             
TO LOWER 50S.                                                                   
EPS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    45  59  38  54 /  70 100  60  30                                
HUTCHINSON      42  56  35  55 /  70 100  40  20                                
NEWTON          43  57  37  52 /  70 100  60  30                                
ELDORADO        43  59  39  52 /  70 100  60  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  61  41  55 /  70 100  70  40                                
RUSSELL         38  45  30  53 /  70  90  30  20                                
GREAT BEND      39  48  31  54 /  70 100  30  20                                
SALINA          39  52  33  53 /  70 100  40  20                                
MCPHERSON       41  54  34  53 /  70 100  40  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     46  63  46  55 /  60 100  80  50                                
CHANUTE         43  61  44  53 /  60 100  80  50                                
IOLA            43  61  43  52 /  60 100  80  50                                
PARSONS-KPPF    45  62  45  54 /  60 100  80  50                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1057 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FCST TO DROP MENTION OF ISOLD -SHSN/FZDZ LATE TONIGHT INTO              
THE EARLY MORNING FOR WRN UPPER MI AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING               
INTO THE AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BEFORE THEN...THERE STILL                  
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ/FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL            
HOURS AS NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS OVER EXTREME NE MN            
MOVES E AND UPSLOPES INTO WRN UPPER MI ON W TO NW WINDS. IN                     
ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS IN NE MN EARLIER THIS EVENING              
THAT INDICATED -DZ/-SN...AND KDLH RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME WEAK RETURNS.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT)                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH TROFFING DOMINATING THE UP GRT LKS.                    
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE              
SN THAT FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOW HEADING ENEWD THRU ERN UPR               
MI. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER               
AIR ALF (IN THE LYR COLDER THAN -10C) THAT WAS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX             
SNDG. BUT PLENTY OF LO CLD REMAINS WITH AMPLE LLVL MSTR LINGERING.              
THE HIER LLVL DWPTS (GENERALLY 30 TO 35) AND IFR/MVFR CIGS EXTEND               
WWD THRU MOST OF MN TO NEAR REINFORCING COLD FNT NOW MOVING INTO NW             
MN. SOME LGT PCPN HAS BEEN OBSVD ALG AND JUST AHD OF THIS BNDRY. BUT            
DRIER AIR IS NOTED MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FNT. THE CORE OF THE               
COLDER AIR IS LOCATED A BIT FARTHER N...WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AT YQD                
DOWN TO -11C...VS -5C OBSVD AT INL.                                             
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND WED)...                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT/TMRW ARE LGT PCPN CHCS/TYPE.                            
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS COLD FNT NOW MOVING THRU MN WL MOVE INTO               
THE WRN ZNS ARND 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR NOTED AHEAD OF THIS               
BNDRY...MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER INTO THE OVERNGT AS WELL            
AS SOME PTCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN ACRS MAINLY THE WRN ZNS WHERE LGT WLY               
FLOW WL UPSLOPE. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SIMILAR PCPN              
TYPE OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP LATE TNGT WITH BETTER                
LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BNDRY. BUT INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR LATE TNGT WL AT LEAST END THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ OVER THE            
W AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN THE DOWNSLOPE               
AREAS. IN ANY EVENT...LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH AND MODEST CHILL (TEMPS            
WITHIN THE MOIST LYR FCST TO BE HIER THAN -10C) WL LIMIT PCPN COVG              
AND INTENSITY. TENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN            
TEMPS FCST...WITH THE LOWER READINGS OVER THE W WITH MORE VIGOROUS              
LLVL DRYING LATE.                                                               
ON WED...AN INCRSG N TO NW FLOW WL ADVECT COLDER AIR NOW OVER SCNTRL            
CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. DURING MID WINTER...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER            
LES HEADLINES...BUT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DURING THE                  
DIURNAL HTG TIME AS WELL AS ACYC NATURE OF LARGER SCALE FLOW WL                 
LIMIT LES BAND DVLPMNT/COVG/INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH FCST SHARP INVRN                
ARND H85 OR SO WL RESULT IN INCRSG SC DVLPMNT WITH THE DIURNAL                  
HTG... THIS LO INVRN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY INSTABILTY              
SHSN THAT MIGHT OTRW DVLP WELL INLAND WITH SFC HTG/INFLUX OF LLVL               
MSTR OFF THE LK. MIXING TO H85-825 ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS            
ARND 40 OVER THE SCNTRL...WHICH WL BE WARMEST WITH DOWNSLOPING NNW              
FLOW.                                                                           
LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                  
TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY GETS                 
REPLACED BY FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. AS TROUGH RUNS INTO STRONG RIDGE OVR            
NORTH ATLANTIC/GREENLAND EXPECT IT TO STALL THIS WEEKEND WHEN IT                
REACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA. USUALLY THIS PATTERN               
RESULTS IN A COLDER PATTERN FOR GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC AND THIS               
TIME IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THE LEAST...EXPECT BLO NORMAL TEMPS                    
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS TOWARD -12C COULD END UP             
WITH LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AT LEAST             
WEAK OVER WATER INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS              
INTO FRIDAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SOME                  
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT              
FM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
EVENTUALLY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER OVR MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF             
THE CONUS WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF                   
WESTERN CONUS TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS ON                  
FRIDAY. ATTM...TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH KEEPS SNOW TO THE SOUTH            
OF CWA. YET...SINCE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVR CANADA HAS NOT ARRIVED              
BY THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR TRACK OF THE LOW TO               
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DPROG/DT OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASING               
NORTHERLY TREND TO NORTH EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD STREAKING ACROSS WI/IL.            
ON LATEST MODELS...THIS IS NOW INTO CNTRL WI. WILL KEEP DRY FCST FOR            
FRI ALONG WI BORDER...BUT SNOW MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER                 
FORECASTS IF SIMILAR TREND CONTINUES.                                           
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA TRIES TO               
MAKE A RUN INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SFC               
HIGH/DRY AMBIENT AIR SHOULD KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM...INCLUDED A SMALL           
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO            
MOVE THROUGH. GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT SHOWING STORM IN NORTHERN            
STREAM SHIFTING ACROSS NEXT TUE. 12Z ECMWF...OTHER GUIDANCE...AND               
THE HPC PREFERENCE...IS TO KEEP STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH SO CARRIED            
A DRY FCST MON/TUE. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY                
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL               
MOISTURE LINGERS BACK TO NE MN. SO WITH UPSLOPING WNW FLOW...EXPECT             
KCMX TO REMAIN UNDER IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS THRU THE                    
EVENING. MIGHT SEE A LITTLE -FZDZSN AS WELL...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE            
A LOW PROBABILITY. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN NW MN...IT`S                   
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT LATE AT KCMX...BUT AT THE MOMENT              
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL SIMPLY RISE TO MVFR SINCE SFC             
DWPTS DON`T DROP SUBSTANTIALLY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LINGER THRU               
WED AFTN.                                                                       
AT KSAW...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. EXPECT                
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN ARRIVAL OF DRIER             
AIR WILL SCATTER OUT CLOUDS WITH ASSISTANCE OF DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.            
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP WED MORNING            
AND THEN LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO JAMES BAY ON             
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.            
THIS HIGH WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY              
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY REACH 30 KNOTS ON                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF              
THE BUILDING RIDGE...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT)                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH TROFFING DOMINATING THE UP GRT LKS.                    
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE              
SN THAT FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOW HEADING ENEWD THRU ERN UPR               
MI. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER               
AIR ALF (IN THE LYR COLDER THAN -10C) THAT WAS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX             
SNDG. BUT PLENTY OF LO CLD REMAINS WITH AMPLE LLVL MSTR LINGERING.              
THE HIER LLVL DWPTS (GENERALLY 30 TO 35) AND IFR/MVFR CIGS EXTEND               
WWD THRU MOST OF MN TO NEAR REINFORCING COLD FNT NOW MOVING INTO NW             
MN. SOME LGT PCPN HAS BEEN OBSVD ALG AND JUST AHD OF THIS BNDRY. BUT            
DRIER AIR IS NOTED MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FNT. THE CORE OF THE               
COLDER AIR IS LOCATED A BIT FARTHER N...WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AT YQD                
DOWN TO -11C...VS -5C OBSVD AT INL.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND WED)... (ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT)                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT/TMRW ARE LGT PCPN CHCS/TYPE.                            
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS COLD FNT NOW MOVING THRU MN WL MOVE INTO               
THE WRN ZNS ARND 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR NOTED AHEAD OF THIS               
BNDRY...MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER INTO THE OVERNGT AS WELL            
AS SOME PTCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN ACRS MAINLY THE WRN ZNS WHERE LGT WLY               
FLOW WL UPSLOPE. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SIMILAR PCPN              
TYPE OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP LATE TNGT WITH BETTER                
LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BNDRY. BUT INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR LATE TNGT WL AT LEAST END THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ OVER THE            
W AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN THE DOWNSLOPE               
AREAS. IN ANY EVENT...LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH AND MODEST CHILL (TEMPS            
WITHIN THE MOIST LYR FCST TO BE HIER THAN -10C) WL LIMIT PCPN COVG              
AND INTENSITY. TENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN            
TEMPS FCST...WITH THE LOWER READINGS OVER THE W WITH MORE VIGOROUS              
LLVL DRYING LATE.                                                               
ON WED...AN INCRSG N TO NW FLOW WL ADVECT COLDER AIR NOW OVER SCNTRL            
CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. DURING MID WINTER...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER            
LES HEADLINES...BUT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DURING THE                  
DIURNAL HTG TIME AS WELL AS ACYC NATURE OF LARGER SCALE FLOW WL                 
LIMIT LES BAND DVLPMNT/COVG/INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH FCST SHARP INVRN                
ARND H85 OR SO WL RESULT IN INCRSG SC DVLPMNT WITH THE DIURNAL                  
HTG... THIS LO INVRN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY INSTABILTY              
SHSN THAT MIGHT OTRW DVLP WELL INLAND WITH SFC HTG/INFLUX OF LLVL               
MSTR OFF THE LK. MIXING TO H85-825 ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS            
ARND 40 OVER THE SCNTRL...WHICH WL BE WARMEST WITH DOWNSLOPING NNW              
FLOW.                                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                 
TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY GETS                 
REPLACED BY FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. AS TROUGH RUNS INTO STRONG RIDGE OVR            
NORTH ATLANTIC/GREENLAND EXPECT IT TO STALL THIS WEEKEND WHEN IT                
REACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA. USUALLY THIS PATTERN               
RESULTS IN A COLDER PATTERN FOR GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC AND THIS               
TIME IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THE LEAST...EXPECT BLO NORMAL TEMPS                    
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS TOWARD -12C COULD END UP             
WITH LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AT LEAST             
WEAK OVER WATER INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS              
INTO FRIDAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SOME                  
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT              
FM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
EVENTUALLY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER OVR MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF             
THE CONUS WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF                   
WESTERN CONUS TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS ON                  
FRIDAY. ATTM...TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH KEEPS SNOW TO THE SOUTH            
OF CWA. YET...SINCE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVR CANADA HAS NOT ARRIVED              
BY THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR TRACK OF THE LOW TO               
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DPROG/DT OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASING               
NORTHERLY TREND TO NORTH EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD STREAKING ACROSS WI/IL.            
ON LATEST MODELS...THIS IS NOW INTO CNTRL WI. WILL KEEP DRY FCST FOR            
FRI ALONG WI BORDER...BUT SNOW MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER                 
FORECASTS IF SIMILAR TREND CONTINUES.                                           
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA TRIES TO               
MAKE A RUN INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SFC               
HIGH/DRY AMBIENT AIR SHOULD KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM...INCLUDED A SMALL           
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO            
MOVE THROUGH. GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT SHOWING STORM IN NORTHERN            
STREAM SHIFTING ACROSS NEXT TUE. 12Z ECMWF...OTHER GUIDANCE...AND               
THE HPC PREFERENCE...IS TO KEEP STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH SO CARRIED            
A DRY FCST MON/TUE. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY                
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL               
MOISTURE LINGERS BACK TO NE MN. SO WITH UPSLOPING WNW FLOW...EXPECT             
KCMX TO REMAIN UNDER IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS THRU THE                    
EVENING. MIGHT SEE A LITTLE -FZDZSN AS WELL...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE            
A LOW PROBABILITY. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN NW MN...IT`S                   
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT LATE AT KCMX...BUT AT THE MOMENT              
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL SIMPLY RISE TO MVFR SINCE SFC             
DWPTS DON`T DROP SUBSTANTIALLY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LINGER THRU               
WED AFTN.                                                                       
AT KSAW...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. EXPECT                
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN ARRIVAL OF DRIER             
AIR WILL SCATTER OUT CLOUDS WITH ASSISTANCE OF DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.            
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP WED MORNING            
AND THEN LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO JAMES BAY ON             
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.            
THIS HIGH WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY              
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY REACH 30 KNOTS ON                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF              
THE BUILDING RIDGE...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH TROFFING DOMINATING THE UP GRT LKS.                    
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE              
SN THAT FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOW HEADING ENEWD THRU ERN UPR               
MI. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER               
AIR ALF (IN THE LYR COLDER THAN -10C) THAT WAS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX             
SNDG. BUT PLENTY OF LO CLD REMAINS WITH AMPLE LLVL MSTR LINGERING.              
THE HIER LLVL DWPTS (GENERALLY 30 TO 35) AND IFR/MVFR CIGS EXTEND               
WWD THRU MOST OF MN TO NEAR REINFORCING COLD FNT NOW MOVING INTO NW             
MN. SOME LGT PCPN HAS BEEN OBSVD ALG AND JUST AHD OF THIS BNDRY. BUT            
DRIER AIR IS NOTED MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FNT. THE CORE OF THE               
COLDER AIR IS LOCATED A BIT FARTHER N...WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AT YQD                
DOWN TO -11C...VS -5C OBSVD AT INL.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND WED)...                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT/TMRW ARE LGT PCPN CHCS/TYPE.                            
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS COLD FNT NOW MOVING THRU MN WL MOVE INTO               
THE WRN ZNS ARND 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR NOTED AHEAD OF THIS               
BNDRY...MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER INTO THE OVERNGT AS WELL            
AS SOME PTCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN ACRS MAINLY THE WRN ZNS WHERE LGT WLY               
FLOW WL UPSLOPE. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SIMILAR PCPN              
TYPE OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP LATE TNGT WITH BETTER                
LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BNDRY. BUT INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR LATE TNGT WL AT LEAST END THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ OVER THE            
W AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN THE DOWNSLOPE               
AREAS. IN ANY EVENT...LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH AND MODEST CHILL (TEMPS            
WITHIN THE MOIST LYR FCST TO BE HIER THAN -10C) WL LIMIT PCPN COVG              
AND INTENSITY. TENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN            
TEMPS FCST...WITH THE LOWER READINGS OVER THE W WITH MORE VIGOROUS              
LLVL DRYING LATE.                                                               
ON WED...AN INCRSG N TO NW FLOW WL ADVECT COLDER AIR NOW OVER SCNTRL            
CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. DURING MID WINTER...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER            
LES HEADLINES...BUT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DURING THE                  
DIURNAL HTG TIME AS WELL AS ACYC NATURE OF LARGER SCALE FLOW WL                 
LIMIT LES BAND DVLPMNT/COVG/INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH FCST SHARP INVRN                
ARND H85 OR SO WL RESULT IN INCRSG SC DVLPMNT WITH THE DIURNAL                  
HTG... THIS LO INVRN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY INSTABILTY              
SHSN THAT MIGHT OTRW DVLP WELL INLAND WITH SFC HTG/INFLUX OF LLVL               
MSTR OFF THE LK. MIXING TO H85-825 ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS            
ARND 40 OVER THE SCNTRL...WHICH WL BE WARMEST WITH DOWNSLOPING NNW              
FLOW.                                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                 
TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY GETS                 
REPLACED BY FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. AS TROUGH RUNS INTO STRONG RIDGE OVR            
NORTH ATLANTIC/GREENLAND EXPECT IT TO STALL THIS WEEKEND WHEN IT                
REACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA. USUALLY THIS PATTERN               
RESULTS IN A COLDER PATTERN FOR GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC AND THIS               
TIME IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THE LEAST...EXPECT BLO NORMAL TEMPS                    
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS TOWARD -12C COULD END UP             
WITH LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AT LEAST             
WEAK OVER WATER INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS              
INTO FRIDAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SOME                  
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT              
FM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
EVENTUALLY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER OVR MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF             
THE CONUS WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF                   
WESTERN CONUS TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS ON                  
FRIDAY. ATTM...TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH KEEPS SNOW TO THE SOUTH            
OF CWA. YET...SINCE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVR CANADA HAS NOT ARRIVED              
BY THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR TRACK OF THE LOW TO               
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DPROG/DT OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASING               
NORTHERLY TREND TO NORTH EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD STREAKING ACROSS WI/IL.            
ON LATEST MODELS...THIS IS NOW INTO CNTRL WI. WILL KEEP DRY FCST FOR            
FRI ALONG WI BORDER...BUT SNOW MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER                 
FORECASTS IF SIMILAR TREND CONTINUES.                                           
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA TRIES TO               
MAKE A RUN INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SFC               
HIGH/DRY AMBIENT AIR SHOULD KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM...INCLUDED A SMALL           
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO            
MOVE THROUGH. GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT SHOWING STORM IN NORTHERN            
STREAM SHIFTING ACROSS NEXT TUE. 12Z ECMWF...OTHER GUIDANCE...AND               
THE HPC PREFERENCE...IS TO KEEP STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH SO CARRIED            
A DRY FCST MON/TUE. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY                
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF...THE STEADY PCPN AT BOTH CMX/SAW             
HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO LINGER THRU THE            
REST OF THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR REMAINING.               
SUSPECT THE VSBY AT SAW WL CLIMB TO VFR RANGE AS OBSVD UPSTREAM. BUT            
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LINGER AT CMX SUGS VSBYS WL STAY IN THE             
IFR/MVFR RANGE THERE WITH SOME FZDZ/DZ PSBL. PASSAGE OF REINFORCING             
COLD FNT LATE TNGT WL OPEN THE DOOR TO DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING                  
CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY PERSIST UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE             
INVRN EVEN THOUGH VSBY WL CLIMB TO VFR RANGE. BEST CHC FOR                      
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WL BE AT CMX.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO JAMES BAY ON             
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.            
THIS HIGH WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY              
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY REACH 30 KNOTS ON                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF              
THE BUILDING RIDGE...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXPANDED THE ADVY AT 1148 AM TO INCLUDE MQT/ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVIER SN TIED CLOSELY TO GFS            
FCST SHARPER H7-5 FGEN. OTRW...RECENT TRENDS SHOW SN DIMINISHING                
OVER THE WRN ZNS WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF.                                 
ISSUED SN ADVYS FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AFT RECEIVING REPORT OF              
4.5 INCHES OF SN AT IWD DURING THE NGT. AREA OF SN ON CYC SIDE OF               
TRACK OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU WI AND UNDER DEFORMATION ZN COLDER CLD              
TOPS HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FAIRLY SHARP H7-5 FGEN. DESPITE ELEVATED              
AND RATHER SHALLOW DGZ...SN HAS FALLEN AT THE RATE OF AN INCH/HR AT             
SOME SPOTS WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS (ABOUT 16:1 AT IWD) THAN                   
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH THE ENHANCED UVV/FGEN IMPACTING THE DGZ.               
BUT... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW PCPN UPSTREAM IS BEGINNING             
TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF AS INDICATED BY 12Z MPX               
SDNG/ WRMG CLD TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. BUT MUCH LO CLD/             
FOG REMAINS WELL BACK INTO MN. AS THE WI SHRTWV CONTINUES TO THE ENE            
TDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALF...EXPECT THE SN TO DIMINISH TO DZ                
WSW-ENE DURING THE DAY AS FCST. THE MOST SN WL FALL OVER THE W INTO             
THE NCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK WHERE ADVYS ARE NOW                  
POSTED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SPLIT            
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...A TROUGH                    
STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEBRASKA...WITH RIDGES OVER            
THE GREAT LAKES AND PACIFIC NW. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER               
LOW EXISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RIDGES BOTH            
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SE U.S. AND NEAR CALIFORNIA. IN-BETWEEN THE TWO             
STREAMS...A SHRTWV IS LOCATED OVER NW KS. ON WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW AND NW KS SHRTWV...A SUBTROPICAL JET OF MOISTURE CAN              
BE SEEN SPREADING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EAST PACIFIC...               
INTO MISSOURI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. IR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS MOISTURE             
TOO WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS. PCPN UNDER THESE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS                   
FOCUSED MOSTLY FROM IN/IL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS...WHERE A LOW LEVEL              
JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INTERSECTING             
A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM NE TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SETUP VERY            
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. TO THE NW OF THE                   
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WARMER BUT CONVECTIVE LOOK CLOUD TOPS ARE                
INDICATED FROM EASTERN SD INTO SRN MN...WI AND UPPER MI. RADAR                  
IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE LOOK...DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE              
RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM PRESENT. PCPN IS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND            
FAIRLY WET AS EVIDENCED BY A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE (UP TO 10000 FT) ON            
THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SOME REPORTS OF DRIZZLE HAVE                    
OCCURRED. THINKING IS THAT WITH THE -10C LAYER SO HIGH IN THE                   
ATMOSPHERE...IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DRYING OUT...RESULTING IN                
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. WATER VAPOR SORT OF DEPICTS THIS WITH MUCH             
OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PCPN IS BEING DRIVEN BY               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE...ALONG WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE              
NW KS SHRTWV AND THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN AND AMOUNTS TODAY.                                
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NW KS IS INDICATED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NE AS IT             
ENCOUNTERS THE GENERAL RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. BY                
18Z...THE SHRTWV SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....THEN LIFT                
INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH                
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE....SHOULD ALLOW PCPN              
TO EXPAND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE PCPN IS                
EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF SNOW...GIVEN THAT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE             
INDICATED WELL BELOW 750 FT. ONCE THE SHRTWV PASSES...CAUSING DRYING            
OF THE MID LEVELS...THE SNOW WILL END. HOWEVER...THIS DRYING OF THE             
MID LEVELS MEANS THE LOW LEVELS STAY MOIST...SO SOME DRIZZLE IS                 
POSSIBLE. TOTAL MODEL QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH SEEM REASONABLE             
DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF THE SNOW (09Z-21Z)...ESPECIALLY WITH THE              
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE STUCK DOWN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE OHIO               
VALLEY AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX                 
SOUNDING AND FCST SOUNDINGS...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL BE ON THE               
LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 10 TO 1 OR LESS. THUS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE            
1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH            
THE ENTIRE DAY...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH. THE                
MAIN MECHANISM TO INCREASE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE ADVECTION OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR             
FOG. SWITCH TO A NW WIND TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR              
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO ENTER IN AND DISSIPATE ANY FOG.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE              
INTO UPPER MI. WITH THE TROUGH IS A WEAK SHRTWV...CURRENTLY IN                  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING            
THE NIGHT. DPVA FROM THIS SHRTWV AND/OR UPSLOPE FLOW FROM WNW LOW               
LEVEL WINDS...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY BE               
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEST             
HALF OF UPPER MI. 850/925MB TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH DURING THIS               
PERIOD TO THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ONLY DROPPING TO -7C AT                 
MOST). OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MOSTLY                 
CLOUDY SKIES. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...THOUGH SOME                  
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOLLOWED  CLOSE TO             
MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                          
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE            
DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS FALL TO               
-10 TO -12C BY 00Z THU). ONE SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTH ON THE               
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...REACHING FAR              
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER MARCH            
SUN AND THE COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE                 
RATES...AND WITH STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SOME DIURNAL            
SNOW SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE. THUS 20-30 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.             
IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS NOTED EARLIER.            
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE                  
COOLING... THEY PROMOTE BETTER MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL WITH THE DOWNSLOPING NW WIND. IN THIS AREA...READINGS SHOULD            
BE ABLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...SHRTWV AT 00Z THU OVER OR NEAR FAR NORTHERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR WILL END UP TAKING A SE TRACK...DUE TO A PHASING THAT IS               
PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LOW             
IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA ON WED.                   
ACCOMPANYING THE SHRTWV WILL BE COLDER AIR YET...WITH 850MB TEMPS               
DROPPING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2C BY 12Z THU. THUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE             
THE COLDEST AIR CROSSES AND A LONGER FETCH OF ICE FREE AREA. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY             
THU AS DRY AIR AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ONTARIO. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN WED             
NIGHT...COOLED LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LESS MODIFIED                   
WESTERN U.P.. COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO FOR THU.                         
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS DEVELOP A FAIRLY DEEP STORM OVER THE                 
CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE PHASING THAT STARTED            
TO OCCUR ON THU. THIS STORM WILL HELP TO HOLD A TROUGH OVER NEW                 
ENGLAND...WHICH MEANS HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS RUNS OF MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IOWA THU NIGHT AND FRI TO HELP               
BRING SOME CLOUDS UP HERE. HOWEVER...WITH MORE EMPHASIS BEING PLACED            
ON THE CANADIAN MARITIMES STORM...THIS CLIPPER IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER            
SOUTH ACROSS KS AND MO. THUS...AFTER SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
OVER THE EASTERN CWA DIMINISHES THU EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY               
ADVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.                
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY             
AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED AS LOW AS 0.10 OF AN INCH)...A                
FAVORABLE SCENARIO EXISTS TO GET CHILLY. LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH             
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO LOWER LOWS MORE.            
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS THU NIGHT...GENERAL LIGHT WINDS ON FRI TO                
PREVENT BETTER MIXING...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR                 
FRI...DESPITE SUNSHINE.                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH THE                    
GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRI GENERALLY IN THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF...THE STEADY PCPN AT BOTH CMX/SAW             
HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO LINGER THRU THE            
REST OF THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR REMAINING.               
SUSPECT THE VSBY AT SAW WL CLIMB TO VFR RANGE AS OBSVD UPSTREAM. BUT            
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LINGER AT CMX SUGS VSBYS WL STAY IN THE             
IFR/MVFR RANGE THERE WITH SOME FZDZ/DZ PSBL. PASSAGE OF REINFORCING             
COLD FNT LATE TNGT WL OPEN THE DOOR TO DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING                  
CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY PERSIST UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE             
INVRN EVEN THOUGH VSBY WL CLIMB TO VFR RANGE. BEST CHC FOR                      
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WL BE AT CMX.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES EXPECTED IN THE WHOLE PERIOD. WINDS WILL COME UP TO 30                 
KNOTS OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
BETWEEN A LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS              
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...GJM                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED SN ADVYS FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AFT RECEIVING REPORT OF              
4.5 INCHES OF SN AT IWD DURING THE NGT. AREA OF SN ON CYC SIDE OF               
TRACK OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU WI AND UNDER DEFORMATION ZN COLDER CLD              
TOPS HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FAIRLY SHARP H7-5 FGEN. DESPITE ELEVATED              
AND RATHER SHALLOW DGZ...SN HAS FALLEN AT THE RATE OF AN INCH/HR AT             
SOME SPOTS WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS (ABOUT 16:1 AT IWD) THAN                   
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH THE ENHANCED UVV/FGEN IMPACTING THE DGZ.               
BUT... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW PCPN UPSTREAM IS BEGINNING             
TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF AS INDICATED BY 12Z MPX               
SDNG/ WRMG CLD TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. BUT MUCH LO CLD/             
FOG REMAINS WELL BACK INTO MN. AS THE WI SHRTWV CONTINUES TO THE ENE            
TDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALF...EXPECT THE SN TO DIMINISH TO DZ                
WSW-ENE DURING THE DAY AS FCST. THE MOST SN WL FALL OVER THE W INTO             
THE NCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK WHERE ADVYS ARE NOW                  
POSTED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SPLIT            
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...A TROUGH                    
STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEBRASKA...WITH RIDGES OVER            
THE GREAT LAKES AND PACIFIC NW. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER               
LOW EXISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RIDGES BOTH            
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SE U.S. AND NEAR CALIFORNIA. IN-BETWEEN THE TWO             
STREAMS...A SHRTWV IS LOCATED OVER NW KS. ON WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW AND NW KS SHRTWV...A SUBTROPICAL JET OF MOISTURE CAN              
BE SEEN SPREADING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EAST PACIFIC...               
INTO MISSOURI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. IR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS MOISTURE             
TOO WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS. PCPN UNDER THESE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS                   
FOCUSED MOSTLY FROM IN/IL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS...WHERE A LOW LEVEL              
JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INTERSECTING             
A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM NE TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SETUP VERY            
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. TO THE NW OF THE                   
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WARMER BUT CONVECTIVE LOOK CLOUD TOPS ARE                
INDICATED FROM EASTERN SD INTO SRN MN...WI AND UPPER MI. RADAR                  
IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE LOOK...DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE              
RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM PRESENT. PCPN IS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND            
FAIRLY WET AS EVIDENCED BY A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE (UP TO 10000 FT) ON            
THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SOME REPORTS OF DRIZZLE HAVE                    
OCCURRED. THINKING IS THAT WITH THE -10C LAYER SO HIGH IN THE                   
ATMOSPHERE...IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DRYING OUT...RESULTING IN                
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. WATER VAPOR SORT OF DEPICTS THIS WITH MUCH             
OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PCPN IS BEING DRIVEN BY               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE...ALONG WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE              
NW KS SHRTWV AND THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN AND AMOUNTS TODAY.                                
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NW KS IS INDICATED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NE AS IT             
ENCOUNTERS THE GENERAL RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. BY                
18Z...THE SHRTWV SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....THEN LIFT                
INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH                
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE....SHOULD ALLOW PCPN              
TO EXPAND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE PCPN IS                
EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF SNOW...GIVEN THAT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE             
INDICATED WELL BELOW 750 FT. ONCE THE SHRTWV PASSES...CAUSING DRYING            
OF THE MID LEVELS...THE SNOW WILL END. HOWEVER...THIS DRYING OF THE             
MID LEVELS MEANS THE LOW LEVELS STAY MOIST...SO SOME DRIZZLE IS                 
POSSIBLE. TOTAL MODEL QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH SEEM REASONABLE             
DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF THE SNOW (09Z-21Z)...ESPECIALLY WITH THE              
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE STUCK DOWN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE OHIO               
VALLEY AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX                 
SOUNDING AND FCST SOUNDINGS...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL BE ON THE               
LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 10 TO 1 OR LESS. THUS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE            
1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH            
THE ENTIRE DAY...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH. THE                
MAIN MECHANISM TO INCREASE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE ADVECTION OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR             
FOG. SWITCH TO A NW WIND TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR              
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO ENTER IN AND DISSIPATE ANY FOG.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE              
INTO UPPER MI. WITH THE TROUGH IS A WEAK SHRTWV...CURRENTLY IN                  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING            
THE NIGHT. DPVA FROM THIS SHRTWV AND/OR UPSLOPE FLOW FROM WNW LOW               
LEVEL WINDS...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY BE               
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEST             
HALF OF UPPER MI. 850/925MB TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH DURING THIS               
PERIOD TO THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ONLY DROPPING TO -7C AT                 
MOST). OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MOSTLY                 
CLOUDY SKIES. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...THOUGH SOME                  
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOLLOWED  CLOSE TO             
MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                          
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE            
DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS FALL TO               
-10 TO -12C BY 00Z THU). ONE SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTH ON THE               
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...REACHING FAR              
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER MARCH            
SUN AND THE COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE                 
RATES...AND WITH STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SOME DIURNAL            
SNOW SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE. THUS 20-30 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.             
IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS NOTED EARLIER.            
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE                  
COOLING... THEY PROMOTE BETTER MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL WITH THE DOWNSLOPING NW WIND. IN THIS AREA...READINGS SHOULD            
BE ABLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...SHRTWV AT 00Z THU OVER OR NEAR FAR NORTHERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR WILL END UP TAKING A SE TRACK...DUE TO A PHASING THAT IS               
PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LOW             
IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA ON WED.                   
ACCOMPANYING THE SHRTWV WILL BE COLDER AIR YET...WITH 850MB TEMPS               
DROPPING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2C BY 12Z THU. THUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE             
THE COLDEST AIR CROSSES AND A LONGER FETCH OF ICE FREE AREA. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY             
THU AS DRY AIR AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ONTARIO. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN WED             
NIGHT...COOLED LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LESS MODIFIED                   
WESTERN U.P.. COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO FOR THU.                         
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS DEVELOP A FAIRLY DEEP STORM OVER THE                 
CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE PHASING THAT STARTED            
TO OCCUR ON THU. THIS STORM WILL HELP TO HOLD A TROUGH OVER NEW                 
ENGLAND...WHICH MEANS HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS RUNS OF MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IOWA THU NIGHT AND FRI TO HELP               
BRING SOME CLOUDS UP HERE. HOWEVER...WITH MORE EMPHASIS BEING PLACED            
ON THE CANADIAN MARITIMES STORM...THIS CLIPPER IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER            
SOUTH ACROSS KS AND MO. THUS...AFTER SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
OVER THE EASTERN CWA DIMINISHES THU EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY               
ADVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.                
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY             
AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED AS LOW AS 0.10 OF AN INCH)...A                
FAVORABLE SCENARIO EXISTS TO GET CHILLY. LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH             
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO LOWER LOWS MORE.            
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS THU NIGHT...GENERAL LIGHT WINDS ON FRI TO                
PREVENT BETTER MIXING...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR                 
FRI...DESPITE SUNSHINE.                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH THE                    
GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRI GENERALLY IN THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR               
CIGS AND IFR CIGS AT KCMX BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON              
TO BETTER VIS WITH WEST WINDS. ONLY PROBLEM IS WEST WIND STILL IS               
UPSLOPE AT KCMX...SO EXPECTING LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH -DZ...FZDZSN AND FOG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. KSAW WILL HAVE MVFR TO IFR                
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING             
WITH THE LOWER VIS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES            
OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. AS WINDS GO TO THE WEST TOWARDS EVENING...VIS             
SHOULD IMPROVE AND CIGS SHOULD START TO COME UP AT KSAW AND THEN                
REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING ONWARD.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES EXPECTED IN THE WHOLE PERIOD. WINDS WILL COME UP TO 30                 
KNOTS OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
BETWEEN A LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS              
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003-004-               
     084.                                                                       
  SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR MIZ002-009-                
     010.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...GJM                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SPLIT            
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...A TROUGH                    
STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEBRASKA...WITH RIDGES OVER            
THE GREAT LAKES AND PACIFIC NW. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER               
LOW EXISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RIDGES BOTH            
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SE U.S. AND NEAR CALIFORNIA. IN-BETWEEN THE TWO             
STREAMS...A SHRTWV IS LOCATED OVER NW KS. ON WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW AND NW KS SHRTWV...A SUBTROPICAL JET OF MOISTURE CAN              
BE SEEN SPREADING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EAST PACIFIC...               
INTO MISSOURI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. IR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS MOISTURE             
TOO WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS. PCPN UNDER THESE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS                   
FOCUSED MOSTLY FROM IN/IL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS...WHERE A LOW LEVEL              
JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INTERSECTING             
A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM NE TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SETUP VERY            
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. TO THE NW OF THE                   
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WARMER BUT CONVECTIVE LOOK CLOUD TOPS ARE                
INDICATED FROM EASTERN SD INTO SRN MN...WI AND UPPER MI. RADAR                  
IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE LOOK...DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE              
RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM PRESENT. PCPN IS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND            
FAIRLY WET AS EVIDENCED BY A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE (UP TO 10000 FT) ON            
THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SOME REPORTS OF DRIZZLE HAVE                    
OCCURRED. THINKING IS THAT WITH THE -10C LAYER SO HIGH IN THE                   
ATMOSPHERE...IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DRYING OUT...RESULTING IN                
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. WATER VAPOR SORT OF DEPICTS THIS WITH MUCH             
OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PCPN IS BEING DRIVEN BY               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE...ALONG WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE              
NW KS SHRTWV AND THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN AND AMOUNTS TODAY.                                
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NW KS IS INDICATED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NE AS IT             
ENCOUNTERS THE GENERAL RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. BY                
18Z...THE SHRTWV SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....THEN LIFT                
INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH                
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE....SHOULD ALLOW PCPN              
TO EXPAND ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF THE PCPN IS                
EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF SNOW...GIVEN THAT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE             
INDICATED WELL BELOW 750 FT. ONCE THE SHRTWV PASSES...CAUSING DRYING            
OF THE MID LEVELS...THE SNOW WILL END. HOWEVER...THIS DRYING OF THE             
MID LEVELS MEANS THE LOW LEVELS STAY MOIST...SO SOME DRIZZLE IS                 
POSSIBLE. TOTAL MODEL QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH SEEM REASONABLE             
DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF THE SNOW (09Z-21Z)...ESPECIALLY WITH THE              
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE STUCK DOWN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE OHIO               
VALLEY AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX                 
SOUNDING AND FCST SOUNDINGS...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL BE ON THE               
LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 10 TO 1 OR LESS. THUS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE            
1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH            
THE ENTIRE DAY...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH. THE                
MAIN MECHANISM TO INCREASE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE ADVECTION OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR             
FOG. SWITCH TO A NW WIND TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR              
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO ENTER IN AND DISSIPATE ANY FOG.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE              
INTO UPPER MI. WITH THE TROUGH IS A WEAK SHRTWV...CURRENTLY IN                  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING            
THE NIGHT. DPVA FROM THIS SHRTWV AND/OR UPSLOPE FLOW FROM WNW LOW               
LEVEL WINDS...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY BE               
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEST             
HALF OF UPPER MI. 850/925MB TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH DURING THIS               
PERIOD TO THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ONLY DROPPING TO -7C AT                 
MOST). OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MOSTLY                 
CLOUDY SKIES. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...THOUGH SOME                  
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOLLOWED  CLOSE TO             
MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                          
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE            
DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS FALL TO               
-10 TO -12C BY 00Z THU). ONE SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTH ON THE               
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...REACHING FAR              
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER MARCH            
SUN AND THE COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE                 
RATES...AND WITH STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SOME DIURNAL            
SNOW SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE. THUS 20-30 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.             
IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS NOTED EARLIER.            
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE                  
COOLING... THEY PROMOTE BETTER MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL WITH THE DOWNSLOPING NW WIND. IN THIS AREA...READINGS SHOULD            
BE ABLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...SHRTWV AT 00Z THU OVER OR NEAR FAR NORTHERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR WILL END UP TAKING A SE TRACK...DUE TO A PHASING THAT IS               
PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LOW             
IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA ON WED.                   
ACCOMPANYING THE SHRTWV WILL BE COLDER AIR YET...WITH 850MB TEMPS               
DROPPING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2C BY 12Z THU. THUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE             
THE COLDEST AIR CROSSES AND A LONGER FETCH OF ICE FREE AREA. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY             
THU AS DRY AIR AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NW ONTARIO. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN WED             
NIGHT...COOLED LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LESS MODIFIED                   
WESTERN U.P.. COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO FOR THU.                         
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS DEVELOP A FAIRLY DEEP STORM OVER THE                 
CANADIAN MARITIMES THU NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE PHASING THAT STARTED            
TO OCCUR ON THU. THIS STORM WILL HELP TO HOLD A TROUGH OVER NEW                 
ENGLAND...WHICH MEANS HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS RUNS OF MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IOWA THU NIGHT AND FRI TO HELP               
BRING SOME CLOUDS UP HERE. HOWEVER...WITH MORE EMPHASIS BEING PLACED            
ON THE CANADIAN MARITIMES STORM...THIS CLIPPER IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER            
SOUTH ACROSS KS AND MO. THUS...AFTER SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
OVER THE EASTERN CWA DIMINISHES THU EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY               
ADVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.                
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY             
AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED AS LOW AS 0.10 OF AN INCH)...A                
FAVORABLE SCENARIO EXISTS TO GET CHILLY. LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH             
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO LOWER LOWS MORE.            
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS THU NIGHT...GENERAL LIGHT WINDS ON FRI TO                
PREVENT BETTER MIXING...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR                 
FRI...DESPITE SUNSHINE.                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH THE                    
GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRI GENERALLY IN THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR               
CIGS AND IFR CIGS AT KCMX BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON              
TO BETTER VIS WITH WEST WINDS. ONLY PROBLEM IS WEST WIND STILL IS               
UPSLOPE AT KCMX...SO EXPECTING LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH -DZ...FZDZSN AND FOG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. KSAW WILL HAVE MVFR TO IFR                
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING             
WITH THE LOWER VIS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES            
OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. AS WINDS GO TO THE WEST TOWARDS EVENING...VIS             
SHOULD IMPROVE AND CIGS SHOULD START TO COME UP AT KSAW AND THEN                
REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING ONWARD.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES EXPECTED IN THE WHOLE PERIOD. WINDS WILL COME UP TO 30                 
KNOTS OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
BETWEEN A LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS              
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...GJM                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
131 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT)                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN                  
ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ONE              
OF THE BRANCHES. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE LIFTING NE INTO              
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE TROF/SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS                    
GENERATING A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN FROM NEBRASKA TO MN.                 
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK               
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR EWD HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A BAND OF -SN ACROSS WRN             
INTO NRN UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...A FEED OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER                 
LEVELS IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM THE SE. SFC DWPTS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN LWR            
MI ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S. THIS DRIER IS ALSO NOTED               
JUST OFF THE SFC ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND EVENING TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS. IMPACT HAS BEEN FOR LIFTING OF CIGS IN PARTS OF ERN WI               
INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                        
FCST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO DELAY PCPN OVER THE SE FCST            
AREA BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED ABOVE. IT APPEARS THIS DRIER AIR              
WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE FARTHER N AND SHOULD SLIGHTLY DELAY PCPN ONSET            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST FOR THE                
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE WITH POPS INCREASING              
FROM SW TO NE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS NE INTO UPPER MI. BEST              
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS            
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME WHICH IS INLINE WITH                     
CATEGORICAL POPS ALREADY IN THE FCST ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THAT               
PERIOD. WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL ON THE 290K SFC                        
(700-775MB)...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DURING              
THE 6HR PERIOD OF BEST ASCENT. HOWEVER...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS                   
SHIFT...LAYER OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS IS VERY ELEVATED...SO 3            
INCHES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE SNOW                 
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS SNOW EVENT BY THE TIME IT ENDS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT)                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN            
ACRS NAMERICA. ZONAL ARCTIC BRANCH NOTED OVER SRN CAN WITH FAIRLY               
VIGOROUS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET CUTOFF LO NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH A              
PLUME OF TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NNEWD ON THE HEELS OF SSW H85 WINDS            
UP TO 60KTS AT OKC INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FEEDING DEEP CONVECTION/HVY             
RA IN CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED H85                 
STNRY/WARM FNT. IN BTWN THESE BRANCHES...A POLAR BRANCH FLOW OBSVD              
ACRS THE NRN STATES WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHRTWV OVER THE NRN                
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
FEATURE AND ANOTHER SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM CO OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL              
BRANCH CUTOFF HAS SPILLED INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...12Z GRB/APX RAOBS              
AND TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A VERY DRY MID TROP OVER THE AREA. WITH                   
SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER IN QUEBEC INTO THE UPR             
LKS...NO SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TDAY OVER THE FA. BUT...12Z MPX SDNG              
SHOWS DEEP SFC-H3 MSTR...AND SOME -SN HAS BROKEN OUT IN NE MN/NW WI             
AHEAD OF THIS RETURNING MSTR. A HEAVIER BATCH OF PCPN IS NOW MOVING             
INTO IA/SW MN IN AREA OF SHARPER DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM             
CO/RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS THAT EXTENDED FM LK SUP TO NEAR ABR AT 12Z.               
SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE)...                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THIS PD IS PCPN COVG/TYPE/AMTS AND                
NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. CONSIDERING THE RELIANCE OF THIS FCST ON THE            
INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS BRANCHES DISCUSSED ABV...CONFIDENCE ON               
FCST EVOLUTION IS A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS SHORT TERM                 
EVENT.                                                                          
FOR TNGT...GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING              
BAND OF -SN TO THE SW UNDER H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF JET AXIS DRIFTING               
ACRS THE FA THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC FCST TO ARRIVE LATE TNGT AS SHRTWV NOW LIFTING NEWD FM            
CO MOVES TO SE MN BY 12Z TUE. WL GO WITH CHC POPS/SCT -SHSN THRU 06Z            
TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL WAVE OF -SN...THEN BUMP POPS UP TO                       
CATEGORICAL AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS.                           
ON TUE...SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z AND INTO               
ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE HIER QPF OVER THE W-CNTRL ON               
CYC SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MID LVL DRYING CUTTING             
DOWN ON THE PCPN TOTALS OVER THE SE. OTRW...EXPECT STEADY SN IN THE             
MRNG TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN TO JUST SOME FLURRIES/-DZ WITH ARRIVAL             
OF DRIER AIR ALF AND IN LYRS WHERE THE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN -10C.                
NEITHER GFS/NAM FCST PROFILES SHOW FZRA/SLEET A LIKELY PCPN TYPE                
THRU THE EVENT. BEST CHC FOR THERE TO BE ANY PCPN TYPE BUT SN WL BE             
TUE AFTN WHEN TEMPS HAVE A CHC TO RECOVER FM SML DIURNAL TEMP FALL              
TNGT LIMITED BY WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WL USE DZ TO COVER THAT PCPN               
TYPE WHEN MID LVL MSTR EXITS.                                                   
AS FOR SN TOTALS...LOCAL HI RES MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF WATER                 
EQUIVALENT PCPN (UP TO 0.40 INCH OR SO) FALLING OVER THE CNTRL ZNS              
DURING TUE MRNG ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. CONSIDERING THE 3 G/KG            
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NAM/GFS SHOW AVBL ON THE 290K SFC (H7-75)...THIS              
HI RES MODEL FCST DOES NOT APPEAR TOO OUT OF LINE. HOWEVER...SINCE              
THE CURRENT SHRTWV PLAYERS ARE OUT OF PHASE AND RICH TROPICAL MSTR              
WL BE INTERCEPTED ALG H85 WARM FNT WELL TO THE S...THINK SGNFT ADVY             
LEVEL PCPN IS UNLIKELY. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR HEAVY SN IS DGZ IS FCST            
TO BE ELEVATED AND RATHER NARROW IN DEPTH WITH INFLUX OF RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR BLO H7. LARGER SCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ALSO SHOW             
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING EVEN IN THE MRNG ABV H7. THIS FCST SEEMS A BIT            
UNREALISTIC OVER THE WCNTRL...WHICH WL BE IN BETTER POSITION                    
RELATIVE TO THE VORT TRACK TO AVOID SGNFT DRYING ALF SO QUICKLY. IN             
ANY EVENT...WL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH PCPN/SN EFFICIENCY             
IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE INCRSD BY LO NCEP FCST...WHICH SHOWS NO MORE            
THAN 2-3" THRU 00Z WED OVER THE WRN FA AND 1-2" OVER THE E.                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PROCESS OF EXITING UPR MI ON TUESDAY EVENING.            
DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO ERODE CHANCES OF ANY APPRECIABLE             
PCPN. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED OVER EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES OF EXITING PCPN SHIELD. OTHERWISE...                 
CHANCES OF PCPN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING LOOK MEAGER. TEMPS IN             
WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY AS LOW              
AS -7C...AND THIS IS OFF THE COLDER GFS OUTPUT. MOIST LOWER LAYERS              
BENEATH DRY LAYER ALOFT AND WNW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YIELD FREEZING               
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OVER THE WEST PORTION OF CWA.                                  
H5 TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WED WITH H5 TEMPS BLO -30C AND             
H7 TEMPS TOWARD -20C. MOISTURE FM H85 TO H7 IS LACKING. HOWEVER...              
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO H85 NEAR 8C/KM...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND            
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH TO ACT AS A TRIGGER MAY ALLOW FOR CU AND            
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS.                                                       
ONCE TROUGH OVR GREAT LAKES DEPARTS...LOOK FOR WEATHER TO BE FAIRLY             
TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF FIT ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES FM                
GFS/CANADIAN THE BEST SO...LIKE HPC...FOR THE MOST PART...PREFERRED             
ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TROUGH THAT IS OVR GREAT LAKES             
REGION ON TUE EVENTUALLY LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW               
ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK. TROUGH WILL STALL THOUGH AS IT MEETS BUILDING             
RIDGE OVR NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO GREENLAND. RESULT IS THE TROUGH                
HOLDING OVR EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN                
SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHILL TO THE TEMPS OVR MUCH OF THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME AND               
NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO RANGE FM 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.                            
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PCPN SKIRTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST WITH SFC LOW MOVING INTO MN ON SATURDAY             
AND HAD QPF INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z SAT. TONED THAT IDEA DOWN AS                
OTHER MODELS WERE WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF                 
PCPN. SINCE CENTER OF LARGE/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR                  
ONTARIO INTO GREAT LAKES...IMAGINE MOST PCPN WILL BE DEFLECTED TO               
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME LGT PCPN IS               
POSSIBLE AS UPR LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SUN BUT WITH SFC HIGH              
AND DRY AIR IN VCNTY WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
NARROW WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS               
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS AT KCMX/KSAW. AFTER THAT...DISTURBANCE                
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD -SN                
WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU TUE MORNING. CIGS AND/OR VIS AT BOTH SITES              
SHOULD DROP TO LIFR LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY WORST              
AT KSAW DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPING SE FLOW. PASSAGE OF SFC TROF AND             
RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO THE W OR NW WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS             
TO BOTH SITES LATE IN THE AFTN. BIGGEST IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY WILL              
BE WITH VIS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TUE EVENING WITH VIS              
BECOMING VFR...BUT CIGS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER END OF THE                
MVFR RANGE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD                  
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DISSIPATE OVER             
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TUESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT             
REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE             
WILL BE NO GALES DURING THIS PERIOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN                  
ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ONE              
OF THE BRANCHES. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS THE ONE LIFTING NE INTO              
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE TROF/SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS                    
GENERATING A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN FROM NEBRASKA TO MN.                 
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK               
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR EWD HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A BAND OF -SN ACROSS WRN             
INTO NRN UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...A FEED OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER                 
LEVELS IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM THE SE. SFC DWPTS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN LWR            
MI ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S. THIS DRIER IS ALSO NOTED               
JUST OFF THE SFC ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND EVENING TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS. IMPACT HAS BEEN FOR LIFTING OF CIGS IN PARTS OF ERN WI               
INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                        
FCST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO DELAY PCPN OVER THE SE FCST            
AREA BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED ABOVE. IT APPEARS THIS DRIER AIR              
WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE FARTHER N AND SHOULD SLIGHTLY DELAY PCPN ONSET            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST FOR THE                
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE WITH POPS INCREASING              
FROM SW TO NE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS NE INTO UPPER MI. BEST              
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS            
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME WHICH IS INLINE WITH                     
CATEGORICAL POPS ALREADY IN THE FCST ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THAT               
PERIOD. WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL ON THE 290K SFC                        
(700-775MB)...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DURING              
THE 6HR PERIOD OF BEST ASCENT. HOWEVER...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS                   
SHIFT...LAYER OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS IS VERY ELEVATED...SO 3            
INCHES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE SNOW                 
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS SNOW EVENT BY THE TIME IT ENDS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT)                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN            
ACRS NAMERICA. ZONAL ARCTIC BRANCH NOTED OVER SRN CAN WITH FAIRLY               
VIGOROUS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET CUTOFF LO NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH A              
PLUME OF TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NNEWD ON THE HEELS OF SSW H85 WINDS            
UP TO 60KTS AT OKC INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FEEDING DEEP CONVECTION/HVY             
RA IN CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED H85                 
STNRY/WARM FNT. IN BTWN THESE BRANCHES...A POLAR BRANCH FLOW OBSVD              
ACRS THE NRN STATES WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHRTWV OVER THE NRN                
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
FEATURE AND ANOTHER SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM CO OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL              
BRANCH CUTOFF HAS SPILLED INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...12Z GRB/APX RAOBS              
AND TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A VERY DRY MID TROP OVER THE AREA. WITH                   
SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER IN QUEBEC INTO THE UPR             
LKS...NO SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TDAY OVER THE FA. BUT...12Z MPX SDNG              
SHOWS DEEP SFC-H3 MSTR...AND SOME -SN HAS BROKEN OUT IN NE MN/NW WI             
AHEAD OF THIS RETURNING MSTR. A HEAVIER BATCH OF PCPN IS NOW MOVING             
INTO IA/SW MN IN AREA OF SHARPER DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM             
CO/RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS THAT EXTENDED FM LK SUP TO NEAR ABR AT 12Z.               
SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE)...                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THIS PD IS PCPN COVG/TYPE/AMTS AND                
NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. CONSIDERING THE RELIANCE OF THIS FCST ON THE            
INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS BRANCHES DISCUSSED ABV...CONFIDENCE ON               
FCST EVOLUTION IS A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS SHORT TERM                 
EVENT.                                                                          
FOR TNGT...GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING              
BAND OF -SN TO THE SW UNDER H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF JET AXIS DRIFTING               
ACRS THE FA THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC FCST TO ARRIVE LATE TNGT AS SHRTWV NOW LIFTING NEWD FM            
CO MOVES TO SE MN BY 12Z TUE. WL GO WITH CHC POPS/SCT -SHSN THRU 06Z            
TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL WAVE OF -SN...THEN BUMP POPS UP TO                       
CATEGORICAL AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS.                           
ON TUE...SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z AND INTO               
ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE HIER QPF OVER THE W-CNTRL ON               
CYC SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MID LVL DRYING CUTTING             
DOWN ON THE PCPN TOTALS OVER THE SE. OTRW...EXPECT STEADY SN IN THE             
MRNG TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN TO JUST SOME FLURRIES/-DZ WITH ARRIVAL             
OF DRIER AIR ALF AND IN LYRS WHERE THE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN -10C.                
NEITHER GFS/NAM FCST PROFILES SHOW FZRA/SLEET A LIKELY PCPN TYPE                
THRU THE EVENT. BEST CHC FOR THERE TO BE ANY PCPN TYPE BUT SN WL BE             
TUE AFTN WHEN TEMPS HAVE A CHC TO RECOVER FM SML DIURNAL TEMP FALL              
TNGT LIMITED BY WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WL USE DZ TO COVER THAT PCPN               
TYPE WHEN MID LVL MSTR EXITS.                                                   
AS FOR SN TOTALS...LOCAL HI RES MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF WATER                 
EQUIVALENT PCPN (UP TO 0.40 INCH OR SO) FALLING OVER THE CNTRL ZNS              
DURING TUE MRNG ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. CONSIDERING THE 3 G/KG            
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NAM/GFS SHOW AVBL ON THE 290K SFC (H7-75)...THIS              
HI RES MODEL FCST DOES NOT APPEAR TOO OUT OF LINE. HOWEVER...SINCE              
THE CURRENT SHRTWV PLAYERS ARE OUT OF PHASE AND RICH TROPICAL MSTR              
WL BE INTERCEPTED ALG H85 WARM FNT WELL TO THE S...THINK SGNFT ADVY             
LEVEL PCPN IS UNLIKELY. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR HEAVY SN IS DGZ IS FCST            
TO BE ELEVATED AND RATHER NARROW IN DEPTH WITH INFLUX OF RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR BLO H7. LARGER SCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ALSO SHOW             
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING EVEN IN THE MRNG ABV H7. THIS FCST SEEMS A BIT            
UNREALISTIC OVER THE WCNTRL...WHICH WL BE IN BETTER POSITION                    
RELATIVE TO THE VORT TRACK TO AVOID SGNFT DRYING ALF SO QUICKLY. IN             
ANY EVENT...WL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH PCPN/SN EFFICIENCY             
IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE INCRSD BY LO NCEP FCST...WHICH SHOWS NO MORE            
THAN 2-3" THRU 00Z WED OVER THE WRN FA AND 1-2" OVER THE E.                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PROCESS OF EXITING UPR MI ON TUESDAY EVENING.            
DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO ERODE CHANCES OF ANY APPRECIABLE             
PCPN. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED OVER EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES OF EXITING PCPN SHIELD. OTHERWISE...                 
CHANCES OF PCPN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING LOOK MEAGER. TEMPS IN             
WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY AS LOW              
AS -7C...AND THIS IS OFF THE COLDER GFS OUTPUT. MOIST LOWER LAYERS              
BENEATH DRY LAYER ALOFT AND WNW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YIELD FREEZING               
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OVER THE WEST PORTION OF CWA.                                  
H5 TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WED WITH H5 TEMPS BLO -30C AND             
H7 TEMPS TOWARD -20C. MOISTURE FM H85 TO H7 IS LACKING. HOWEVER...              
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO H85 NEAR 8C/KM...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND            
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH TO ACT AS A TRIGGER MAY ALLOW FOR CU AND            
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS.                                                       
ONCE TROUGH OVR GREAT LAKES DEPARTS...LOOK FOR WEATHER TO BE FAIRLY             
TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF FIT ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES FM                
GFS/CANADIAN THE BEST SO...LIKE HPC...FOR THE MOST PART...PREFERRED             
ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TROUGH THAT IS OVR GREAT LAKES             
REGION ON TUE EVENTUALLY LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW               
ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK. TROUGH WILL STALL THOUGH AS IT MEETS BUILDING             
RIDGE OVR NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO GREENLAND. RESULT IS THE TROUGH                
HOLDING OVR EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN                
SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHILL TO THE TEMPS OVR MUCH OF THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME AND               
NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO RANGE FM 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.                            
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PCPN SKIRTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST WITH SFC LOW MOVING INTO MN ON SATURDAY             
AND HAD QPF INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z SAT. TONED THAT IDEA DOWN AS                
OTHER MODELS WERE WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF                 
PCPN. SINCE CENTER OF LARGE/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR                  
ONTARIO INTO GREAT LAKES...IMAGINE MOST PCPN WILL BE DEFLECTED TO               
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME LGT PCPN IS               
POSSIBLE AS UPR LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SUN BUT WITH SFC HIGH              
AND DRY AIR IN VCNTY WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SINCE SSE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPING AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS               
SHOULD PREVAIL THERE THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AREA OF -SN                    
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI/FAR WRN UPPER MI MAY AFFECT KCMX...RESULTING IN            
PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KSAW...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN SHOULD             
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI            
LIFTS N. LATER IN THE NIGHT...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SW               
WILL CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD -SN/FOG/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS                 
WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE AT KSAW           
(DROPPING MORE FIRMLY INTO THE LIFR RANGE) DUE TO FAVORABLE                     
UPSLOPING SE FLOW. PASSAGE OF SFC TROF AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO              
THE W OR NW WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO BOTH SITES TUE AFTN.             
BIGGEST IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY WILL BE WITH VIS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD                  
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DISSIPATE OVER             
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TUESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT             
REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE             
WILL BE NO GALES DURING THIS PERIOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
751 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT)                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN            
ACRS NAMERICA. ZONAL ARCTIC BRANCH NOTED OVER SRN CAN WITH FAIRLY               
VIGOROUS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET CUTOFF LO NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH A              
PLUME OF TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NNEWD ON THE HEELS OF SSW H85 WINDS            
UP TO 60KTS AT OKC INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FEEDING DEEP CONVECTION/HVY             
RA IN CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED H85                 
STNRY/WARM FNT. IN BTWN THESE BRANCHES...A POLAR BRANCH FLOW OBSVD              
ACRS THE NRN STATES WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHRTWV OVER THE NRN                
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
FEATURE AND ANOTHER SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM CO OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL              
BRANCH CUTOFF HAS SPILLED INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...12Z GRB/APX RAOBS              
AND TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A VERY DRY MID TROP OVER THE AREA. WITH                   
SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER IN QUEBEC INTO THE UPR             
LKS...NO SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TDAY OVER THE FA. BUT...12Z MPX SDNG              
SHOWS DEEP SFC-H3 MSTR...AND SOME -SN HAS BROKEN OUT IN NE MN/NW WI             
AHEAD OF THIS RETURNING MSTR. A HEAVIER BATCH OF PCPN IS NOW MOVING             
INTO IA/SW MN IN AREA OF SHARPER DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM             
CO/RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS THAT EXTENDED FM LK SUP TO NEAR ABR AT 12Z.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE)... (ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT)                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THIS PD IS PCPN COVG/TYPE/AMTS AND                
NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. CONSIDERING THE RELIANCE OF THIS FCST ON THE            
INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS BRANCHES DISCUSSED ABV...CONFIDENCE ON               
FCST EVOLUTION IS A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS SHORT TERM                 
EVENT.                                                                          
FOR TNGT...GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING              
BAND OF -SN TO THE SW UNDER H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF JET AXIS DRIFTING               
ACRS THE FA THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC FCST TO ARRIVE LATE TNGT AS SHRTWV NOW LIFTING NEWD FM            
CO MOVES TO SE MN BY 12Z TUE. WL GO WITH CHC POPS/SCT -SHSN THRU 06Z            
TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL WAVE OF -SN...THEN BUMP POPS UP TO                       
CATEGORICAL AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS.                           
ON TUE...SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z AND INTO               
ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE HIER QPF OVER THE W-CNTRL ON               
CYC SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MID LVL DRYING CUTTING             
DOWN ON THE PCPN TOTALS OVER THE SE. OTRW...EXPECT STEADY SN IN THE             
MRNG TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN TO JUST SOME FLURRIES/-DZ WITH ARRIVAL             
OF DRIER AIR ALF AND IN LYRS WHERE THE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN -10C.                
NEITHER GFS/NAM FCST PROFILES SHOW FZRA/SLEET A LIKELY PCPN TYPE                
THRU THE EVENT. BEST CHC FOR THERE TO BE ANY PCPN TYPE BUT SN WL BE             
TUE AFTN WHEN TEMPS HAVE A CHC TO RECOVER FM SML DIURNAL TEMP FALL              
TNGT LIMITED BY WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WL USE DZ TO COVER THAT PCPN               
TYPE WHEN MID LVL MSTR EXITS.                                                   
AS FOR SN TOTALS...LOCAL HI RES MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF WATER                 
EQUIVALENT PCPN (UP TO 0.40 INCH OR SO) FALLING OVER THE CNTRL ZNS              
DURING TUE MRNG ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. CONSIDERING THE 3 G/KG            
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NAM/GFS SHOW AVBL ON THE 290K SFC (H7-75)...THIS              
HI RES MODEL FCST DOES NOT APPEAR TOO OUT OF LINE. HOWEVER...SINCE              
THE CURRENT SHRTWV PLAYERS ARE OUT OF PHASE AND RICH TROPICAL MSTR              
WL BE INTERCEPTED ALG H85 WARM FNT WELL TO THE S...THINK SGNFT ADVY             
LEVEL PCPN IS UNLIKELY. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR HEAVY SN IS DGZ IS FCST            
TO BE ELEVATED AND RATHER NARROW IN DEPTH WITH INFLUX OF RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR BLO H7. LARGER SCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ALSO SHOW             
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING EVEN IN THE MRNG ABV H7. THIS FCST SEEMS A BIT            
UNREALISTIC OVER THE WCNTRL...WHICH WL BE IN BETTER POSITION                    
RELATIVE TO THE VORT TRACK TO AVOID SGNFT DRYING ALF SO QUICKLY. IN             
ANY EVENT...WL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH PCPN/SN EFFICIENCY             
IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE INCRSD BY LO NCEP FCST...WHICH SHOWS NO MORE            
THAN 2-3" THRU 00Z WED OVER THE WRN FA AND 1-2" OVER THE E.                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PROCESS OF EXITING UPR MI ON TUESDAY EVENING.            
DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO ERODE CHANCES OF ANY APPRECIABLE             
PCPN. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED OVER EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES OF EXITING PCPN SHIELD. OTHERWISE...                 
CHANCES OF PCPN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING LOOK MEAGER. TEMPS IN             
WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY AS LOW              
AS -7C...AND THIS IS OFF THE COLDER GFS OUTPUT. MOIST LOWER LAYERS              
BENEATH DRY LAYER ALOFT AND WNW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YIELD FREEZING               
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OVER THE WEST PORTION OF CWA.                                  
H5 TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WED WITH H5 TEMPS BLO -30C AND             
H7 TEMPS TOWARD -20C. MOISTURE FM H85 TO H7 IS LACKING. HOWEVER...              
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO H85 NEAR 8C/KM...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND            
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH TO ACT AS A TRIGGER MAY ALLOW FOR CU AND            
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS.                                                       
ONCE TROUGH OVR GREAT LAKES DEPARTS...LOOK FOR WEATHER TO BE FAIRLY             
TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF FIT ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES FM                
GFS/CANADIAN THE BEST SO...LIKE HPC...FOR THE MOST PART...PREFERRED             
ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TROUGH THAT IS OVR GREAT LAKES             
REGION ON TUE EVENTUALLY LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW               
ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK. TROUGH WILL STALL THOUGH AS IT MEETS BUILDING             
RIDGE OVR NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO GREENLAND. RESULT IS THE TROUGH                
HOLDING OVR EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN                
SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHILL TO THE TEMPS OVR MUCH OF THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME AND               
NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO RANGE FM 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.                            
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PCPN SKIRTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST WITH SFC LOW MOVING INTO MN ON SATURDAY             
AND HAD QPF INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z SAT. TONED THAT IDEA DOWN AS                
OTHER MODELS WERE WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF                 
PCPN. SINCE CENTER OF LARGE/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR                  
ONTARIO INTO GREAT LAKES...IMAGINE MOST PCPN WILL BE DEFLECTED TO               
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME LGT PCPN IS               
POSSIBLE AS UPR LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SUN BUT WITH SFC HIGH              
AND DRY AIR IN VCNTY WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SINCE SSE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPING AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS               
SHOULD PREVAIL THERE THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AREA OF -SN                    
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI/FAR WRN UPPER MI MAY AFFECT KCMX...RESULTING IN            
PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KSAW...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN SHOULD             
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI            
LIFTS N. LATER IN THE NIGHT...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SW               
WILL CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD -SN/FOG/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS                 
WHICH WILL PERSIST THRU TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE AT KSAW           
(DROPPING MORE FIRMLY INTO THE LIFR RANGE) DUE TO FAVORABLE                     
UPSLOPING SE FLOW. PASSAGE OF SFC TROF AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO              
THE W OR NW WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO BOTH SITES TUE AFTN.             
BIGGEST IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY WILL BE WITH VIS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD                  
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DISSIPATE OVER             
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TUESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT             
REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE             
WILL BE NO GALES DURING THIS PERIOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN            
ACRS NAMERICA. ZONAL ARCTIC BRANCH NOTED OVER SRN CAN WITH FAIRLY               
VIGOROUS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET CUTOFF LO NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH A              
PLUME OF TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NNEWD ON THE HEELS OF SSW H85 WINDS            
UP TO 60KTS AT OKC INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FEEDING DEEP CONVECTION/HVY             
RA IN CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED H85                 
STNRY/WARM FNT. IN BTWN THESE BRANCHES...A POLAR BRANCH FLOW OBSVD              
ACRS THE NRN STATES WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHRTWV OVER THE NRN                
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
FEATURE AND ANOTHER SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM CO OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL              
BRANCH CUTOFF HAS SPILLED INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...12Z GRB/APX RAOBS              
AND TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A VERY DRY MID TROP OVER THE AREA. WITH                   
SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER IN QUEBEC INTO THE UPR             
LKS...NO SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TDAY OVER THE FA. BUT...12Z MPX SDNG              
SHOWS DEEP SFC-H3 MSTR...AND SOME -SN HAS BROKEN OUT IN NE MN/NW WI             
AHEAD OF THIS RETURNING MSTR. A HEAVIER BATCH OF PCPN IS NOW MOVING             
INTO IA/SW MN IN AREA OF SHARPER DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM             
CO/RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS THAT EXTENDED FM LK SUP TO NEAR ABR AT 12Z.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND TUE)...                                        
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THIS PD IS PCPN COVG/TYPE/AMTS AND                
NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. CONSIDERING THE RELIANCE OF THIS FCST ON THE            
INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS BRANCHES DISCUSSED ABV...CONFIDENCE ON               
FCST EVOLUTION IS A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS SHORT TERM                 
EVENT.                                                                          
FOR TNGT...GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING              
BAND OF -SN TO THE SW UNDER H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF JET AXIS DRIFTING               
ACRS THE FA THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC FCST TO ARRIVE LATE TNGT AS SHRTWV NOW LIFTING NEWD FM            
CO MOVES TO SE MN BY 12Z TUE. WL GO WITH CHC POPS/SCT -SHSN THRU 06Z            
TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL WAVE OF -SN...THEN BUMP POPS UP TO                       
CATEGORICAL AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS.                           
ON TUE...SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z AND INTO               
ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE HIER QPF OVER THE W-CNTRL ON               
CYC SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MID LVL DRYING CUTTING             
DOWN ON THE PCPN TOTALS OVER THE SE. OTRW...EXPECT STEADY SN IN THE             
MRNG TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN TO JUST SOME FLURRIES/-DZ WITH ARRIVAL             
OF DRIER AIR ALF AND IN LYRS WHERE THE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN -10C.                
NEITHER GFS/NAM FCST PROFILES SHOW FZRA/SLEET A LIKELY PCPN TYPE                
THRU THE EVENT. BEST CHC FOR THERE TO BE ANY PCPN TYPE BUT SN WL BE             
TUE AFTN WHEN TEMPS HAVE A CHC TO RECOVER FM SML DIURNAL TEMP FALL              
TNGT LIMITED BY WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WL USE DZ TO COVER THAT PCPN               
TYPE WHEN MID LVL MSTR EXITS.                                                   
AS FOR SN TOTALS...LOCAL HI RES MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF WATER                 
EQUIVALENT PCPN (UP TO 0.40 INCH OR SO) FALLING OVER THE CNTRL ZNS              
DURING TUE MRNG ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. CONSIDERING THE 3 G/KG            
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NAM/GFS SHOW AVBL ON THE 290K SFC (H7-75)...THIS              
HI RES MODEL FCST DOES NOT APPEAR TOO OUT OF LINE. HOWEVER...SINCE              
THE CURRENT SHRTWV PLAYERS ARE OUT OF PHASE AND RICH TROPICAL MSTR              
WL BE INTERCEPTED ALG H85 WARM FNT WELL TO THE S...THINK SGNFT ADVY             
LEVEL PCPN IS UNLIKELY. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR HEAVY SN IS DGZ IS FCST            
TO BE ELEVATED AND RATHER NARROW IN DEPTH WITH INFLUX OF RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR BLO H7. LARGER SCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ALSO SHOW             
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING EVEN IN THE MRNG ABV H7. THIS FCST SEEMS A BIT            
UNREALISTIC OVER THE WCNTRL...WHICH WL BE IN BETTER POSITION                    
RELATIVE TO THE VORT TRACK TO AVOID SGNFT DRYING ALF SO QUICKLY. IN             
ANY EVENT...WL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH PCPN/SN EFFICIENCY             
IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE INCRSD BY LO NCEP FCST...WHICH SHOWS NO MORE            
THAN 2-3" THRU 00Z WED OVER THE WRN FA AND 1-2" OVER THE E.                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                    
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PROCESS OF EXITING UPR MI ON TUESDAY EVENING.            
DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO ERODE CHANCES OF ANY APPRECIABLE             
PCPN. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED OVER EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES OF EXITING PCPN SHIELD. OTHERWISE...                 
CHANCES OF PCPN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING LOOK MEAGER. TEMPS IN             
WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH H9-H85 TEMPS ONLY AS LOW              
AS -7C...AND THIS IS OFF THE COLDER GFS OUTPUT. MOIST LOWER LAYERS              
BENEATH DRY LAYER ALOFT AND WNW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YIELD FREEZING               
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OVER THE WEST PORTION OF CWA.                                  
H5 TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WED WITH H5 TEMPS BLO -30C AND             
H7 TEMPS TOWARD -20C. MOISTURE FM H85 TO H7 IS LACKING. HOWEVER...              
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO H85 NEAR 8C/KM...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND            
A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH TO ACT AS A TRIGGER MAY ALLOW FOR CU AND            
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS.                                                       
ONCE TROUGH OVR GREAT LAKES DEPARTS...LOOK FOR WEATHER TO BE FAIRLY             
TRANQUIL INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF FIT ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES FM                
GFS/CANADIAN THE BEST SO...LIKE HPC...FOR THE MOST PART...PREFERRED             
ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TROUGH THAT IS OVR GREAT LAKES             
REGION ON TUE EVENTUALLY LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW               
ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK. TROUGH WILL STALL THOUGH AS IT MEETS BUILDING             
RIDGE OVR NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO GREENLAND. RESULT IS THE TROUGH                
HOLDING OVR EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN                
SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT CHILL TO THE TEMPS OVR MUCH OF THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME AND               
NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO RANGE FM 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.                            
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PCPN SKIRTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST WITH SFC LOW MOVING INTO MN ON SATURDAY             
AND HAD QPF INTO WESTERN CWA BY 00Z SAT. TONED THAT IDEA DOWN AS                
OTHER MODELS WERE WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF                 
PCPN. SINCE CENTER OF LARGE/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR                  
ONTARIO INTO GREAT LAKES...IMAGINE MOST PCPN WILL BE DEFLECTED TO               
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME LGT PCPN IS               
POSSIBLE AS UPR LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SUN BUT WITH SFC HIGH              
AND DRY AIR IN VCNTY WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND INDICATED BY HIER DWPTS NR              
LK MI HAS STREAMED N INTO THE CNTRL CWA AND CAUSED TEMPO LO MVFR SC             
CIG TO DVLP AT SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE SLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF             
THE FLOW AT CMX HAS PREVENTED THE DVLPMNT OF THIS CIG THERE. WITH               
PERSISTENT SSE FLOW THRU THIS EVNG...EXPECT MVFR CIG TO PREDOMINATE             
AT SAW WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX. APRCH OF DISTURBANCE FM THE SW               
LATE TNGT WL CAUSE DVLPMNT OF WDSPRD -SN/FOG/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AFT             
MIDNGT THRU TUE MRNG. CONDITIONS WL BE WORSE AT SAW WITH FVRBL SE               
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD                  
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DISSIPATE OVER             
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TUESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT             
REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE             
WILL BE NO GALES DURING THIS PERIOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                                            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SPLIT FLOW            
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH IS MOSTLY              
ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THERE IS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO             
WESTERN MANITOBA. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXIST WITH THIS SHRTWV               
OVER MANITOBA...ALONG WITH A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTH END OF            
LAKE WINNIPEG. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED               
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM            
INTO THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS SHRTWVS ARE LOCATED                
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE FOR THIS                   
FORECAST IS LOCATED IN SW NEW MEXICO. ON WATER VAPOR...A SUBTROPICAL            
JET CAN BE SEEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING FROM             
THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IR                
IMAGERY REFLECTS THE MOISTURE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS UP INTO WISCONSIN. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A STRONG UPPER JET            
AROUND 200MB FROM WESTERN KS AND NEBRASKA EASTWARD TO PENNSYLVANIA              
(SPEEDS UP TO 160 KT). GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER              
THE SOUTHWEST U.S....A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL             
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PROFILERS IN THIS AREA AT 850MB SHOW WINDS OUT             
OF THE SOUTH TO SE AT 50-75 KT...PULLING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF            
MEXICO. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 850MB MOISTURE WAS STILL              
LACKING AT 00Z AT OKC AND FWD WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10C.               
MUCH MORE MOISTURE WAS PRESENT NEAR THE GULF COAST AT CRP AND BRO...            
WHICH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY UP                
INTO OKLAHOMA BY NOW. CLOSER TO HOME...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE               
INFLUENCE OF A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER NE ONTARIO. DRY               
AIR...SEEN ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND GRB...ALONG WITH LIGHT             
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED INLAND                 
TEMPS TO GET CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...                
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE              
CWA.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN AND TYPE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                 
TODAY...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON THE 00Z APX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WILL BE              
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FIGURING OUT WHETHER PCPN OCCURS. MODELS DEPICT              
THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MANITOBA TO LIFT UP TO HUDSON BAY...STAYING              
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HERE THAT THE ONLY FACTOR WILL BE PUSHING THE              
SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THEREFORE AN INCREASE            
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS LIKELY TODAY. TO OUR SW...THE SHRTWV OVER NEW             
MEXICO IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NE COLORADO. DPVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE              
SHRTWV ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW EXPANSION OF THE                  
CURRENT PCPN ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MN...NW WI AND              
EVENTUALLY WESTERN UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LATE                
TIMING GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FOR A                 
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN CHANCES. ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE             
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE DRY AIR...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS REFLECT THIS WITH            
ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT MOST. ALTHOUGH PCPN IS MINIMAL TODAY...              
LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY            
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SURFACE HEATING             
FROM THE SUN...BUT THE INCREASING WINDS SHOULD HELP IN BRINGING                 
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY                
SLIGHT TWEAKS MADE.                                                             
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHRTWV OVER NE COLORADO LIFTS UP INTO SRN MN              
BY 12Z TUE...OVER THE CWA AT 18Z TUE AND INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z WED.            
CONTINUED DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRWTV ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC                       
LIFT/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE              
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT OCCURRING DURING THE 06Z-18Z TUE                 
TIMEFRAME WHEN THE SHRTWV IS APPROACHING. THERE IS ONE MAJOR ISSUE              
WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS AND THAT IS A LOT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO             
MOISTURE IS GOING TO GET INTERCEPTED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...              
DOWN NEAR THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE             
AREA. MOST MODELS HAVE RESPONDED BY HAVING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY             
FORECASTED...WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME                  
MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.40 OF AN INCH RANGE. WARMER AIR                
WILL STILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGIONAL             
CANADIAN MODEL...MEANING A DEEP AGGREGATION ZONE TO HELP REDUCE SNOW            
TO WATER RATIOS (LIKELY AROUND OR JUST BELOW 10 TO 1). PCPN ALONG               
LAKE MI IN THE LATEST NAM AND GFS WOULD STAY MAINLY AS SNOW...BUT               
WITH THE REGIONAL CANADIAN DRAWING WARMER AIR IN AND TO MAINTAIN                
SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A                
MENTION OF SOME RAIN. THERE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ALONG               
LAKE MI...BUT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN A                        
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE BULK OF THE PCPN...                
HAVE WENT WITH EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE FOR              
REMOVAL OF RAIN...OR INCLUSION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IF                    
NECESSARY. AS FAR AS THE HEADLINE ISSUE...EVENT NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE             
A MARGINAL ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...AN               
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WILL LIKELY BE                  
NEEDED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE EVENT REALLY DOES NOT GET GOING UNTIL               
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY YET.            
WILL UPDATE THE SPS...THOUGH. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT IT APPEARS              
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT...CAUSING               
THE -10C ISOTHERM TO BECOME UNSATURATED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A            
MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. LOW AND HIGH TEMPS            
DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY              
QUIET. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AT 00Z WED IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON                   
WED...THEN AMPLIFY WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER               
LOW PHASES WITH THIS TROUGH. SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN TUE NIGHT               
AND WED...BUT 850MB TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW -10C...SUGGESTING LAKE              
EFFECT POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE PCPN IS POSSIBLE            
IN NW FLOW AREAS ON TUE NIGHT...WITH DIURNAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON            
WED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. COLDER AIR...PERHAPS WITH 850MB TEMPS               
FALLING TO -10 TO -12C IS INDICATED TO FLOW IN WED NIGHT AND THU AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH COULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
GOING. HOWEVER...A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO                
BUILD IN THU AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE                     
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR FROM THIS RIDGE SHOULD               
END ANY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR            
IS COLDER THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY...THE AIR IS BETTER FOR MIXING...              
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. THUS HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO             
TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND THOSE AREAS IN NW DOWNSLOPE LIKE MNM COULD              
ACTUALLY END UP BEING WARMER.                                                   
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER             
LOWS FOR THU NIGHT WITH THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                    
OVERHEAD. THESE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EVEN MORE. DRY FORECAST             
STILL LOOKS GOOD INTO FRIDAY...AND COULD BE DRIED OUT INTO SATURDAY             
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE PER THE 00Z                     
ECMWF/GFS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND INDICATED BY HIER DWPTS NR              
LK MI HAS STREAMED N INTO THE CNTRL CWA AND CAUSED TEMPO LO MVFR SC             
CIG TO DVLP AT SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE SLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF             
THE FLOW AT CMX HAS PREVENTED THE DVLPMNT OF THIS CIG THERE. WITH               
PERSISTENT SSE FLOW THRU THIS EVNG...EXPECT MVFR CIG TO PREDOMINATE             
AT SAW WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX. APRCH OF DISTURBANCE FM THE SW               
LATE TNGT WL CAUSE DVLPMNT OF WDSPRD -SN/FOG/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AFT             
MIDNGT THRU TUE MRNG. CONDITIONS WL BE WORSE AT SAW WITH FVRBL SE               
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON. WENT WITH THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH HAD                
WEAKER WINDS FOR WED ONWARD AND THEN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WAS                 
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS AN OUTLIER WITH               
ITS STRONGER WINDS AND DID NOT USE. WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...GJM                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
709 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SPLIT FLOW            
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH IS MOSTLY              
ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THERE IS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO             
WESTERN MANITOBA. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXIST WITH THIS SHRTWV               
OVER MANITOBA...ALONG WITH A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTH END OF            
LAKE WINNIPEG. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED               
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM            
INTO THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS SHRTWVS ARE LOCATED                
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE FOR THIS                   
FORECAST IS LOCATED IN SW NEW MEXICO. ON WATER VAPOR...A SUBTROPICAL            
JET CAN BE SEEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING FROM             
THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IR                
IMAGERY REFLECTS THE MOISTURE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS UP INTO WISCONSIN. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A STRONG UPPER JET            
AROUND 200MB FROM WESTERN KS AND NEBRASKA EASTWARD TO PENNSYLVANIA              
(SPEEDS UP TO 160 KT). GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER              
THE SOUTHWEST U.S....A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL             
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PROFILERS IN THIS AREA AT 850MB SHOW WINDS OUT             
OF THE SOUTH TO SE AT 50-75 KT...PULLING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF            
MEXICO. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 850MB MOISTURE WAS STILL              
LACKING AT 00Z AT OKC AND FWD WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10C.               
MUCH MORE MOISTURE WAS PRESENT NEAR THE GULF COAST AT CRP AND BRO...            
WHICH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY UP                
INTO OKLAHOMA BY NOW. CLOSER TO HOME...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE               
INFLUENCE OF A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER NE ONTARIO. DRY               
AIR...SEEN ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND GRB...ALONG WITH LIGHT             
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED INLAND                 
TEMPS TO GET CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...                
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE              
CWA.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN AND TYPE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                 
TODAY...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON THE 00Z APX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WILL BE              
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FIGURING OUT WHETHER PCPN OCCURS. MODELS DEPICT              
THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MANITOBA TO LIFT UP TO HUDSON BAY...STAYING              
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HERE THAT THE ONLY FACTOR WILL BE PUSHING THE              
SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THEREFORE AN INCREASE            
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS LIKELY TODAY. TO OUR SW...THE SHRTWV OVER NEW             
MEXICO IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NE COLORADO. DPVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE              
SHRTWV ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW EXPANSION OF THE                  
CURRENT PCPN ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MN...NW WI AND              
EVENTUALLY WESTERN UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LATE                
TIMING GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FOR A                 
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN CHANCES. ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE             
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE DRY AIR...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS REFLECT THIS WITH            
ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT MOST. ALTHOUGH PCPN IS MINIMAL TODAY...              
LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY            
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SURFACE HEATING             
FROM THE SUN...BUT THE INCREASING WINDS SHOULD HELP IN BRINGING                 
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY                
SLIGHT TWEAKS MADE.                                                             
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHRTWV OVER NE COLORADO LIFTS UP INTO SRN MN              
BY 12Z TUE...OVER THE CWA AT 18Z TUE AND INTO NE ONTARIO BY 00Z WED.            
CONTINUED DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRWTV ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC                       
LIFT/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE              
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT OCCURRING DURING THE 06Z-18Z TUE                 
TIMEFRAME WHEN THE SHRTWV IS APPROACHING. THERE IS ONE MAJOR ISSUE              
WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS AND THAT IS A LOT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO             
MOISTURE IS GOING TO GET INTERCEPTED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...              
DOWN NEAR THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE             
AREA. MOST MODELS HAVE RESPONDED BY HAVING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY             
FORECASTED...WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME                  
MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.40 OF AN INCH RANGE. WARMER AIR                
WILL STILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGIONAL             
CANADIAN MODEL...MEANING A DEEP AGGREGATION ZONE TO HELP REDUCE SNOW            
TO WATER RATIOS (LIKELY AROUND OR JUST BELOW 10 TO 1). PCPN ALONG               
LAKE MI IN THE LATEST NAM AND GFS WOULD STAY MAINLY AS SNOW...BUT               
WITH THE REGIONAL CANADIAN DRAWING WARMER AIR IN AND TO MAINTAIN                
SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A                
MENTION OF SOME RAIN. THERE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ALONG               
LAKE MI...BUT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN A                        
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE BULK OF THE PCPN...                
HAVE WENT WITH EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE FOR              
REMOVAL OF RAIN...OR INCLUSION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IF                    
NECESSARY. AS FAR AS THE HEADLINE ISSUE...EVENT NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE             
A MARGINAL ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...AN               
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WILL LIKELY BE                  
NEEDED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE EVENT REALLY DOES NOT GET GOING UNTIL               
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY YET.            
WILL UPDATE THE SPS...THOUGH. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT IT APPEARS              
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT...CAUSING               
THE -10C ISOTHERM TO BECOME UNSATURATED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A            
MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. LOW AND HIGH TEMPS            
DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY              
QUIET. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AT 00Z WED IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON                   
WED...THEN AMPLIFY WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER               
LOW PHASES WITH THIS TROUGH. SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN TUE NIGHT               
AND WED...BUT 850MB TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW -10C...SUGGESTING LAKE              
EFFECT POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE PCPN IS POSSIBLE            
IN NW FLOW AREAS ON TUE NIGHT...WITH DIURNAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON            
WED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. COLDER AIR...PERHAPS WITH 850MB TEMPS               
FALLING TO -10 TO -12C IS INDICATED TO FLOW IN WED NIGHT AND THU AS             
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH COULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
GOING. HOWEVER...A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO                
BUILD IN THU AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE                     
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR FROM THIS RIDGE SHOULD               
END ANY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR            
IS COLDER THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY...THE AIR IS BETTER FOR MIXING...              
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. THUS HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO             
TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND THOSE AREAS IN NW DOWNSLOPE LIKE MNM COULD              
ACTUALLY END UP BEING WARMER.                                                   
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER             
LOWS FOR THU NIGHT WITH THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                    
OVERHEAD. THESE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EVEN MORE. DRY FORECAST             
STILL LOOKS GOOD INTO FRIDAY...AND COULD BE DRIED OUT INTO SATURDAY             
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE PER THE 00Z                     
ECMWF/GFS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER               
INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY MID AFTERNOON. BROUGHT IN SNOW BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON IN A PROB30 GROUP WITH THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW                  
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS                  
ARRIVE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON. WENT WITH THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH HAD                
WEAKER WINDS FOR WED ONWARD AND THEN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WAS                 
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS AN OUTLIER WITH               
ITS STRONGER WINDS AND DID NOT USE. WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...GJM                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NARROW BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH S AND E METRO INTO              
WESTERN WI. LATEST RUC SHOWING AN AXIS OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF              
AROUND 7.5 DEGREES C JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND OF SNOW. BACK EDGE OF              
COMPACT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH SW MN AS WELL. WILL BEEF UP THE                  
SNOW A LITTLE MORE IN WI THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WI BEFORE NOON. SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST BEHIND WAVE IN ND AND CURRENT                  
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP                   
OVER ND AND WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND YET                  
ANOTHER SMALL WAVE ENTERING WESTERN ND AT THIS TIME COULD CAUSE A               
AN ISOLD RN OR SNW SHOWER FAR WEST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL                   
TRENDS FOR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WILL               
FOLLOW MORE OF THE SREF TRENDS OF CONFINING CHC TO THE SOUTHWEST.               
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BE                     
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MN. NO BIG TEMP CHANGES WITH READINGS CLOSE                
TO NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING                
IN BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER SEVERAL OF THESE WNW FLOW                   
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH..AND DIG SOMEWHAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. CONDS                     
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER AIR MOVE IN. MAINLY CLEAR      
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG...MAINLY W MN...EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PRECEDING THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/KFM/JVM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
932 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. VISIBILITY IMPROVING OVER ERN EDGE OF                
CWA AS SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY/RUC13 50H TEMP FILED MOVES               
NE OF REGION. BRIEF PATCHY FZDZ OCCURRING ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIP                
SHIELD OVER WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO                 
ZONES AS SFC OBS INDICATE VERY SHORT NATURE OF THIS POPTYP. RUC13               
SHOWS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H EDGING INTO WRN CWA. WITH                  
SFC/925 WIND ON LIGHT SIDE EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST                
TIL LATE MORNING. FARTHER EAST AREAS OF FOG ALSO OCCURRING AS                   
RELATIVELY WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS OVER COOL/MOIST NEAR SFC              
LAYER. GIVEN CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST OF CWA...SUSPECT THAT FOG MAY              
LINGER MOST OF DAY...OR AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUD COVER UNTIL                     
INCREASED MIXING/WINDSHIFT OCCURS COURTESY OF SFC BDRY NOW IN NW                
CORNER OF STATE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW                     
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS                     
MORNING. LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT BANDS...ONE               
OVER THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A STRONGER ONE OVER THE TWIN CITIES AND              
WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS TRACKING NE TOWARDS AND OVER NWRN WI.                
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2                   
MILES...WITH ISOLD REPORTS OF LOWER VSBYS. BECAUSE OF LIGHTER                   
SNOWFALL RATES AND MILD TEMPS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN                  
LESS THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP                      
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE TRAVEL COULD                
STILL BE HAZARDOUS. THE SNOW IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST                
OF OUR FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                  
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN                 
ZONES AND SNOWBELT ZONES OF NWRN WI ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW AS                   
SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT               
BECAUSE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE              
LOW AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. ELSEWHERE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY.                                                     
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS               
MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE                 
WEST BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME                   
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO              
MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY                
THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS                
TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR                    
CIGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  35  22  35  13 /  40  10  10  10                                           
INL  37  20  34   9 /  30  20  20  10                                           
BRD  37  22  38  15 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  37  20  38  13 /  70  10  10  10                                           
ASX  35  24  36  16 /  80  20  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
636 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                               
NARROW BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH S AND E METRO INTO              
WESTERN WI. LATEST RUC SHOWING AN AXIS OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF              
AROUND 7.5 DEGREES C JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND OF SNOW. BACK EDGE OF              
COMPACT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH SW MN AS WELL. WILL BEEF UP THE                  
SNOW A LITTLE MORE IN WI THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WI BEFORE NOON. SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST BEHIND WAVE IN ND AND CURRENT                  
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP                   
OVER ND AND WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND YET                  
ANOTHER SMALL WAVE ENTERING WESTERN ND AT THIS TIME COULD CAUSE A               
AN ISOLD RN OR SNW SHOWER FAR WEST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL                   
TRENDS FOR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WILL               
FOLLOW MORE OF THE SREF TRENDS OF CONFINING CHC TO THE SOUTHWEST.               
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BE                     
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MN. NO BIG TEMP CHANGES WITH READINGS CLOSE                
TO NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING                
IN BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER SEVERAL OF THESE WNW FLOW                   
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH..AND DIG SOMEWHAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AT THE START OF                 
THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 14Z AT KMSP...AND                     
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AT KRNH AND KEAU. ATTENDANT IFR                             
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT MVFR                
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL                    
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING AT                               
KSTC/KAXN/KRWF...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE                      
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS                       
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH LIGHT WEST-               
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
357 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NARROW BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH S AND E METRO INTO              
WESTERN WI. LATEST RUC SHOWING AN AXIS OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF              
AROUND 7.5 DEGREES C JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND OF SNOW. BACK EDGE OF              
COMPACT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH SW MN AS WELL. WILL BEEF UP THE                  
SNOW A LITTLE MORE IN WI THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WI BEFORE NOON. SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST BEHIND WAVE IN ND AND CURRENT                  
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP                   
OVER ND AND WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND YET                  
ANOTHER SMALL WAVE ENTERING WESTERN ND AT THIS TIME COULD CAUSE A               
AN ISOLD RN OR SNW SHOWER FAR WEST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL                   
TRENDS FOR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WILL               
FOLLOW MORE OF THE SREF TRENDS OF CONFINING CHC TO THE SOUTHWEST.               
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BE                     
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MN. NO BIG TEMP CHANGES WITH READINGS CLOSE                
TO NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING                
IN BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER SEVERAL OF THESE WNW FLOW                   
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH..AND DIG SOMEWHAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES              
OVERNIGHT...TO THE NORTH OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW                 
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE                 
THE MAIN VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL BE BR/FOG. CIRA IR SATELLITE               
INDICATES THAT SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN                 
MAY BE LACKING ICE CRYSTALS...SO -RASN OR -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE                  
OVERNIGHT AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...THE BACK EDGE                
OF THE SNOW AREA SHOULD BE NEAR KMSP...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO                  
LINGER AT KEAU/KRNH UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO                    
IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH IFR TO LOW-               
END MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. IMPROVING                        
CONDITIONS AND ATTENDANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/LS/JVM                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
852 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...CURRENT HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN GREAT SHAPE AS              
UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER JET IS              
ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. EMBEDDED PIECES OF                    
ENERGY ARE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND IS                      
EVIDENCED BY A NEW BATCH OF MODERATE SNOW BREAKING OUT OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA ATTM. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                
REST OF THE FORECAST INCLUDING RAISING MIN TEMPS A BIT.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES WITH CWA UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF NRN               
BRANCH AND ITS APPROACHING MID LVL TROF. SRN BRANCH VORTEX WILL                 
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF REGION WITH MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT PW AND                 
LIFT.                                                                           
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNALS FOR LIFT HAVE BEEN                 
RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND MDL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN LACKING. THE              
LATEST RUC13 ANIMATION DEPICTS WELL DEFINED RRQ OF 30H JET LIFTING              
NORTHEAST OF REGION. THIS HAS HELP INDUCE A LLJ ACROSS ERN MN THIS              
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM HAS LLJ AXIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT                  
LOCATION. AREA OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                   
FEATURE LIFTING NORTH AS WELL. EXPECT BEST ORIENTATION OF                       
LLJ/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO FOCUS ACROSS SE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE                  
OVERALL FORCING BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF CWA. ALTHOUGH                 
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH...ONCE AGAIN... QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD               
REMAIN LOW. AS A RESULT... HAVE RESHAPED AREA OF HEADLINES OVERNIGHT            
AND MOVED START TIME CLOSER TO ZONE ISSUANCE. WILL CHANGE WWA TO                
SNOW ADV AS POP/TYPE ISSUES NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. EXPECT              
MORE OF A TWO TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED 5              
INCH POSSIBLE IN SE CWA. MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE                  
EXITING REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY.                                                
EXTENDED...WED THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET PATTERN AS NRN BRANCH                     
DOMINATES REGION WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH.                   
ALTHOUGH LOW LVL WINDS MAY FAVOR LES POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY OVER WI                
SNOWBELT...IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER DRYING WITH INVERSION WOULD                 
LIMIT ABILITY OF ANY MESOSCALE LIFT TO GENERATE  ADEQUATE DEPTH OF              
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD                          
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IFR OR               
LOW MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW OR FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  26  34  23  35 /  90  70  10  10                                           
INL  28  34  20  34 /  60  40  10  10                                           
BRD  29  37  21  38 /  90  40  10  10                                           
HYR  30  35  22  38 / 100  80  10  10                                           
ASX  29  34  24  36 / 100  80  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.              
     LOUIS-PINE.                                                                
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-                 
     BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                
$$                                                                              
GSF                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
308 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES WITH CWA UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF NRN               
BRANCH AND ITS APPROACHING MID LVL TROF. SRN BRANCH VORTEX WILL                 
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF REGION WITH MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT PW AND                 
LIFT.                                                                           
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNALS FOR LIFT HAVE BEEN                 
RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND MDL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN LACKING. THE              
LATEST RUC13 ANIMATION DEPICTS WELL DEFINED RRQ OF 30H JET LIFTING              
NORTHEAST OF REGION. THIS HAS HELP INDUCE A LLJ ACROSS ERN MN THIS              
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM HAS LLJ AXIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT                  
LOCATION. AREA OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                   
FEATURE LIFTING NORTH AS WELL. EXPECT BEST ORIENTATION OF                       
LLJ/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO FOCUS ACROSS SE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE                  
OVERALL FORCING BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF CWA. ALTHOUGH                 
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH...ONCE AGAIN... QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD               
REMAIN LOW. AS A RESULT... HAVE RESHAPED AREA OF HEADLINES OVERNIGHT            
AND MOVED START TIME CLOSER TO ZONE ISSUANCE. WILL CHANGE WWA TO                
SNOW ADV AS POPTYP ISSUES NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. EXPECT                
MORE OF A TWO TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED 5              
INCH POSSIBLE IN SE CWA. MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE                  
EXITING REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY.                                                
EXTENDED...WED THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET PATTERN AS NRN BRANCH                     
DOMINATES REGION WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH.                   
ALTHOUGH LOW LVL WINDS MAY FAVOR LES POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY OVER WI                
SNOWBELT...IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER DRYING WITH INVERSION WOULD                 
LIMIT ABILITY OF ANY MESOSCALE LIFT TO GENERATE  ADEQUATE DEPTH OF              
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD                          
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IFR OR               
LOW MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW OR FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  26  34  23  35 /  90  70  10  10                                           
INL  25  34  20  34 /  50  40  10  10                                           
BRD  26  37  21  38 /  90  40  10  10                                           
HYR  25  35  22  38 / 100  80  10  10                                           
ASX  27  34  24  36 / 100  80  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.              
     LOUIS-PINE.                                                                
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-                 
     BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                
$$                                                                              
CANNON/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
944 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW IS SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM SWRN CWA INTO TWIN PORTS. HAVE                 
INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS ZONES/GRIDS. LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12                
HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AND WILL USE              
THROUGH TODAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT POPTYP AS ALL SNOW AS LATEST NAM                  
SNDGS KEEP IC DESCENDING INTO SUFFICIENTLY COLD BL...ESPECIALLY                 
WITH SOME EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL. AMNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT STILL ENCOUNTERS ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN LOW                
LEVELS. STILL ANTICIPATE MAIN SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH DEEPER                  
LAYER OF FORCING WITH 85/50H OMEGA FIELDS. WILL AWAIT 12Z GFS TO                
SEE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  33  26  34  22 /  70  90  70  20                                           
INL  37  25  37  19 /  40  50  40  20                                           
BRD  36  26  37  21 /  80  80  50  10                                           
HYR  35  25  35  22 /  70 100  80  20                                           
ASX  34  27  34  24 /  50 100  90  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT                 
     TUESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-                  
     PINE.                                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CDT                
     TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN                           
     COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT                 
     TUESDAY FOR CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN.                     
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT                 
     TUESDAY FOR BURNETT.                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CDT                
     TUESDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-                    
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1023 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX                 
REGION THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER EAST             
TEXAS. OVER THE CWFA WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD               
CONTINUE UNTIL THE LINE OF STORMS REACHES THE AREA. OVERALL THINKING            
HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE NOT CHANGED POP             
AND WEATHER GRIDS AS A RESULT. DID MAKE A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES               
MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY                 
AROUND THE LOWER 70S EAST TO UPPER 70S WEST THIS EVENING. THEY ARE              
DEFINITELY FALLING MUCH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD              
COVER AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND. AS A RESULT HAVE ADJUSTED              
THE LOWER TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE EAST                
WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO             
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON THIS CHANGE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.            
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL ATTACH THE PREVIOUS              
DISCUSSION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE EVOLVING SLOWLY AT THIS                       
POINT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MARKED INCREASE IN THE ACTION                
BETWEEN 8-9 PM TO OUR WEST WITH THINGS EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE             
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD ACROSS MY FORECAST           
AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM.                                                 
DUE TO THE SLOW EVOLUTION UP TO THIS POINT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN              
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THAT TIMING. AS FOR THE CONDITIONS                          
OUTSIDE...WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AS            
THE SFC LOW EDGES EVER CLOSER. ALOFT...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE             
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT              
WITH 0-1 KM VALUES BETWEEN 45-50KTS. LOW LEVEL                                  
HELICITIES...0-1KM...WILL ALSO BE OFF THE CHART WITH VALUES BETWEEN             
400-600 M2/S2. STRONG ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY                 
10-11PM AND HELP TO REMOVE THE WARM MID LEVEL LAYER. THE RESULT WILL            
BE A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS                
LINE EVOLVES...BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON AND POSE A SIG WIND               
THREAT. SOME GUSTS IN THE SEGMENTS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH. ALSO...DUE              
TO THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...THESE BOWING                  
SEGMENTS WILL POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. OFTEN TIMES...THESE BOWING            
SEGMENTS IN SIMILAR VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS ARE VERY EFFICIENT             
AT PRODUCING TORNADOES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH ALL PREV FORECAST             
FOR THIS EVENT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.                       
HOWEVER...GRIDDED MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE RUC OFFER 400-600 J/KG JUST            
AHEAD OF THE LINE AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 600-1000 J/KG OF                  
MLCAPE. THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND MATCHES WELL WITH THE                 
OBSERVED 00Z RAOBS AT SHV/LCH. IF THAT TYPE OF INSTABILITY CAN                  
REMAIN AS THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH +90KTS AT 500MB AND                
70-80KTS AT 700MB...THEN A NASTY LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE               
EXPECTED.                                                                       
LATEST GRAPHICAST OUTLINES THE TIMING WITH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE             
MS RIVER SEEING ACTIVITY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THE I-55 CORRIDOR              
BETWEEN 1-4 AM WHILE THE E 1/3 BETWEEN 4-7 AM.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO                 
EAST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...BRINGING FLIGHT                  
CATEGORIES TO MVFR. SHOWERS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER              
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.            
THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY                   
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND                  
LEAVING THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS           
SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. VISIBILITIES WILL             
ALSO DROP TO IFR OR LIFR AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THE SQUALL           
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH              
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                           
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE            
TO SEE STRONG WINDS BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE EVEN REACHES THE AREA.               
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35KTS CAN              
BE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.  SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE                
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL SEE EVEN HIGHER WINDS THIS                          
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KTS.                
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG             
WINDS THAT WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.  AFTER THE LINE               
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE               
SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS THROUGH THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. /14/                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       58  63  41  70 / 100  12   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      61  67  39  69 / 100  37   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     56  63  42  69 / 100  10   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   61  69  41  73 / 100  31   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       56  64  40  67 / 100   3   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    55  59  42  69 / 100  28   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     57  61  39  68 / 100  27   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ030-031-033-            
     038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074.                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-                
     025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-           
     032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-            
     016-023>026.                                                               
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-           
     023>026.                                                                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
810 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE EVOLVING SLOWLY AT THIS POINT...BUT ARE                
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MARKED INCREASE IN THE ACTION BETWEEN 8-9 PM TO              
OUR WEST WITH THINGS EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE              
EVENING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA BETWEEN               
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM.                                                              
DUE TO THE SLOW EVOLUTION UP TO THIS POINT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN              
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THAT TIMING. AS FOR THE CONDITIONS                          
OUTSIDE...WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AS            
THE SFC LOW EDGES EVER CLOSER. ALOFT...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE             
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT              
WITH 0-1 KM VALUES BETWEEN 45-50KTS. LOW LEVEL                                  
HELICITIES...0-1KM...WILL ALSO BE OFF THE CHART WITH VALUES BETWEEN             
400-600 M2/S2. STRONG ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY                 
10-11PM AND HELP TO REMOVE THE WARM MID LEVEL LAYER. THE RESULT WILL            
BE A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS                
LINE EVOLVES...BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON AND POSE A SIG WIND               
THREAT. SOME GUSTS IN THE SEGMENTS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH. ALSO...DUE              
TO THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...THESE BOWING                  
SEGMENTS WILL POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. OFTEN TIMES...THESE BOWING            
SEGMENTS IN SIMILAR VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS ARE VERY EFFICIENT             
AT PRODUCING TORNADOES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH ALL PREV FORECAST             
FOR THIS EVENT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.                       
HOWEVER...GRIDDED MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE RUC OFFER 400-600 J/KG JUST            
AHEAD OF THE LINE AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 600-1000 J/KG OF                  
MLCAPE. THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND MATCHES WELL WITH THE                 
OBSERVED 00Z RAOBS AT SHV/LCH. IF THAT TYPE OF INSTABILITY CAN                  
REMAIN AS THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH +90KTS AT 500MB AND                
70-80KTS AT 700MB...THEN A NASTY LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE               
EXPECTED.                                                                       
LATEST GRAPHICAST OUTLINES THE TIMING WITH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE             
MS RIVER SEEING ACTIVITY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THE I-55 CORRIDOR              
BETWEEN 1-4 AM WHILE THE E 1/3 BETWEEN 4-7 AM.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING.  BY THE MID TO              
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM            
WEST TO EAST...BRINGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR.  SHOWERS WITH A              
FEW POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION                 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.  THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO            
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AND LEAVING THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN                     
10Z-13Z.  THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING               
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DROP TO IFR OR LIFR AS             
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH.  AFTER THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE               
AREA...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE            
TO SEE STRONG WINDS BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE EVEN REACHES THE AREA.               
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35KTS CAN              
BE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.  SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE                
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL SEE EVEN HIGHER WINDS THIS                          
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KTS.                
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG             
WINDS THAT WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.  AFTER THE LINE               
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE               
SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS THROUGH THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. /14/                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       56  63  41  70 / 100  12   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      58  67  39  69 / 100  37   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     55  63  42  69 / 100  10   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   58  69  41  73 / 100  31   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       55  64  40  67 / 100   3   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    54  59  42  69 / 100  28   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     56  61  39  68 / 100  27   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ030-031-033-            
     038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074.                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-                
     059>063.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-           
     032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-           
     023>026.                                                                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR ARZ074-075.                                                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CME                                                                             
14                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A                   
LITTLE SLOWER THIS RUN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR CWFA TONIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT-TIME                 
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER                
MEXICO SW OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. BELIEVE THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER               
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS PROGGED A DAY OR TWO AGO AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR              
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION CURRENTLY FCST. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1000MB            
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN                   
SEABOARD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO ARE RESULTING             
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALREADY...WITH STRONGER WINDS                
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED INHERITED WIND AND LAKE WIND               
ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND CUTOFF LOW ARE             
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY AND STRENGTHEN.            
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL BE ENTERING SW               
ARKANSAS BY 00Z AND OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE            
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY               
BUT...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST            
TEXAS TODAY AND MOVE AHEAD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A              
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND                   
PARISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS               
WILL BE WITH THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER             
OUR REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST                
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN BACK INTO THE                 
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND                
WILL INCREASE TODAY. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35MPH                
TODAY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...BUT                 
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE PUSHING EAST AT 40-50MPH WITH BOWING SEGMENTS              
PRODUCING DAMAGING AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE SQUALL             
LINE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE COLD             
FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN                 
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                
CLEARING BEFORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A STRUGGLE            
MOVING UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S. /22/                                             
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS            
WILL BE PULLING WELL AWAY FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION ON WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL               
TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT              
TO THE EAST. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY IN MOST            
AREAS IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL SLACKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE                
NIGHT WEARS ON. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE LOWER MS                
VALLEY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RATHER CONSIDERABLY BY                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF                
LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL PROVIDE BETTER RAD COOLING                      
CONDITIONS. CUT MINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES BELOW 00Z MEX IN THOSE                      
AREAS..BUT WENT WITH GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT A RANGE OF UPPER 30S            
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.                                                         
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING                
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH BELOW                 
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND I               
WENT RIGHT WITH 00Z MEX FOR TEMPS.                                              
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL LINGER LONGER OVER THE             
REGION AND THIS WILL GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD              
RAD COOLING CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH              
CLOUDS PRECEDING THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN             
ZONES BEFORE MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG AN IMPEDIMENT             
TO COOLING. EXPECT A RANGE OF UPPER 30S EAST TO LOW 40S WEST BY                 
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS RIGHT WITH 00Z MEX EXCEPT IN FAR NORTHWEST              
(DELTA) WHERE A BIT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING            
OUT LATE AT NIGHT.                                                              
IN THE REALLY LONG TERM...THE GFS MODELS CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING             
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME.             
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WITH               
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GETTING ENTRENCHED INTO THE REGION              
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GENERALLY MORE RELIABLE               
(AT LEAST IN THE LONG RANGE) EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS THAT STRONG                
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW DOWN AND AMPLIFY ENERGY COMING             
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...HOLDING UP ANY COLD                 
FRONT BEFORE IT CAN BLAST SOUTH THROUGH HERE. THESE DIFFERENCES IN              
THE MODELS ARE COMPOUNDED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY               
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION BY BOTH MODELS IS                
HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY: THE EURO MODEL PASSES TWO RATHER POTENT               
STORM SYSTEMS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ARKLAMISS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND NEXT             
TUESDAY TO PRODUCE WEATHER; WHILE THE GFS JUST REINFORCES NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM THAT              
BRINGS A SHOT OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE PRECIP. GIVEN TENDENCIES                   
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND THE FACT THAT LA NINA                     
CONTINUES...THE EURO SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SOLUTION SHOULD             
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GOOD SHOT OF LATE SEASON COLD TO THE                     
REGION...BUT PROBABLY A FEW DAYS SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODELS                     
SUGGESTS. THE EURO ALSO WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ONE                
BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS DOES              
NOT OFFER MUCH HOPE OF THAT.                                                    
ALL THE ABOVE BEING SAID...I MADE SOME CHANGES TO LATEST 00Z MEX                
GUIDANCE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MAIN ALTERATIONS WHERE TO BOOST            
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL PERIODS IN THE MENTIONED RANGE SINCE GFS            
PREDICTS MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS                 
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S; LOWS IN THE 40S) LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY. GFS               
POPS ARE ALL 20 PERCENT OR LESS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT                
THERE DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITHIN                
THAT PERIOD THAN THOSE NUMBERS SUGGEST. HOWEVER...DECIDING ON THE               
DAY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL COME IS BEYOND MY SKILL RIGHT NOW SO                 
TWEAKS TO POPS WERE ONLY MINOR. /BB/                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BROKEN LAYER OF CLOUDS 1800-2300FT RESULTING IN MVFR                
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST              
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND LOWER TONIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE             
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING                        
LOW...STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL            
PREVAIL TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY              
IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LINE SHOULD BE IN VCTY OF GLH BY 05Z               
AND PROGRESS EASTWARD TO VCTY OF GTR-MEI-HBG LINE BY 12Z. /22/                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       78  60  61  40 /  54 100  41   0                                  
MERIDIAN      78  61  64  40 /  27 100  57   2                                  
VICKSBURG     80  59  60  37 /  74 100  29   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   79  61  65  40 /  36 100  43   1                                  
NATCHEZ       80  60  59  38 /  72 100  21   0                                  
GREENVILLE    77  57  56  38 /  82 100  41   0                                  
GREENWOOD     77  59  60  38 /  62 100  49   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ030-031-033-            
     038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074.                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-             
     025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                       
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-                
     059>063.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-           
     032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.                               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-             
     015-016-023>026.                                                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-           
     023>026.                                                                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.             
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY             
     FOR ARZ074-075.                                                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: BB                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1105 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...WINDS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING CLOSE TO HOURLY GRIDS           
AS MOISTURE SURGE NOW UNDERWAY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRESSURE               
GRADIENT FROM E TO W ACROSS THE CWFA NEAR 6MB CURRENTLY AND THIS                
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UP ACROSS THE LAKE WIND ADVY LOCATIONS THROUGH              
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY THICKENING AS WELL. LITTLE          
CHANGE TO GRIDS AND UPDATED NUMBERS SHOULD BE POSTED WITH NEW ZONE              
PACKAGE SHORTLY JUST TO ADJUST WORDING./40/                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:                                                    
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC                     
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW            
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL SWING EAST TODAY TO THE TEXAS               
BIG BEND AND THEN NORTHEAST TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE            
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW                
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX               
TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE            
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR TODAY THOUGH...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS              
SHOWS A 1000MB LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
THESE FEATURES HAS KEPT OUR WINDS UP ALL NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN A             
WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE                  
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF AREA TODAY MEETING LOCAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT              
AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY               
AND A WIND ADVISORY WL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR TUESDAY AND             
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA. WL INCREASE AREA OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY TO INCORPORATE ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST                
COUNTIES. THE WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE               
BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY. LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED BACK IN              
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BY SUN DOWN. STRENGTHENING WAA SHOULD ALLOW                 
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO THE MID 70S                   
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S            
AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE CLOSE             
AND ACCEPTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WERE TOO COOL IN THE EAST FOR            
TUESDAY. BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL BE                  
STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AS THEY APPROACH OUR CWFA. A STRONGLY SHEARED             
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER OUR               
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING CAP BUT               
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE             
OF STRONG TO SEVER STORMS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES LATE             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH             
THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. /22/                    
.LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE BIG DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO             
PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST               
THAT THE COMBINATION OF RATHER LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO POOR                     
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES)...HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND                       
SHEAR...CONCENTRATED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...AND DEEP SHEAR VECTORS                  
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROPER               
RECIPE FOR A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST             
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AMBIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE              
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND FREQUENT GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH             
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT DAMAGE BEFORE STORMS EVEN ARRIVE.             
THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE WILL BE ABLE TO BRING POWERFUL LOWER                   
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS (>50 KTS AT 2500 FT) DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN MORE            
EFFICIENTLY. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A 700 MB "DRY SLOT" GETTING                    
ENTRAINED INTO THE ANTICIPATED NORTH TO THE SOUTH ORIENTED SQUALL               
LINE BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING SUGGESTS RAPID FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF             
THE FEATURE IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER                 
RAISE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT MINOR                  
SURFACE INVERSIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA                 
COULD BUFFER THE GROUND FROM THE WORST OF THE WEATHER...BUT MODEL               
SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SUGGEST THIS AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY              
THAT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.              
THE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR REFERRED TO ABOVE WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE               
FOR LEWP (LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN) SIGNATURES THAT COULD EASILY SPIN             
UP TORNADOES. FINALLY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF            
A SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE REGION FURTHER LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
ANY WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUES (AND MODEL OUTPUT BACKS                
THAT UP).                                                                       
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MAY NOT COME THROUGH TILL THAT DAYLIGHT HOURS             
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS DRY AIR AT 700 MB WILL BE             
BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE EASTWARD-RACING SQUALL LINE              
SO EFFICIENTLY THAT A SORT OF SMALL-SCALE COLD FRONT WILL BE                    
CREATED. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S               
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING BACK UP AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT OOZES THROUGH             
AND THE MEAT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MORE RAIN                
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOT OUT OF             
THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT. NO SEVERE WEATHER              
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY RAIN SHOULD BE PULLING OUT IN            
THE AFTERNOON (OR EARLIER). LATESTS MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS)                 
SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD             
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING BEFORE EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A            
STRUGGLE MOVING UPWARD AND I WENT WITH MUCH LOWER 00Z MEX                       
GUIDANCE (WHICH FORECASTS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH GUSTY              
NORTHWEST WINDS). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL              
FOR WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY SINCE ANY EARLIER CLEARING FROM WEST            
TO EAST SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO RESPOND UPWARD QUICKLY.                           
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR                 
SKIES COMBINE OVER THE ARKLAMISS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT.               
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE NOW ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS...BUT NO              
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR A WARM UP TO                 
START ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE HAVING A RATHER TOUGH TIME WITH THE              
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO THE IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE             
WEEK. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF                   
SUGGESTED A SOUTHEAST MOVING WAVE TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY OVER THE PLAINS            
AND SPUR CYCLOGENESIS NEARBY OUR REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVED TOWARD            
THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. THAT RECIPE WOULD HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR             
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. NOW MODELS THINK THIS WAVE            
WILL NOT AMPLIFY MUCH AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST...WITH MOST OF ITS                  
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FRONT                 
COULD STILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...BUT               
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT OR MOISTURE FOR THE               
PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THIS FORECAST GENERALLY BUYS INTO              
THE LATEST IDEA...BUT GIVEN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE I                
WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IT MODELS TRENDED BACK TO A                   
STORMIER SOLUTION WITHIN A FEW DAYS. WE`LL SEE.                                 
I GENERALLY STUCK RIGHT WITH LATEST 00Z MEX POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH              
THE LONG TERM. MAIN DEVIATIONS WERE TO POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS EVENT            
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH 100 PERCENTS. EXPECT                
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND (ASIDE            
FROM THE QUICK CHILLY PERIOD BEHIND EARLY WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONTAL              
PASSAGE). /BB/                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WITH BROKEN                 
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS 00Z-04Z ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.            
THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS OF            
25-30KTS AT TIMES. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH                
LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHRA MAY BEGIN POPPING AFTER 04Z AS            
WELL. /40/                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       81  62  79  54 /   4  16  32  98                                  
MERIDIAN      80  57  79  56 /   4   7  23 100                                  
VICKSBURG     82  63  80  53 /   9  18  55 100                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  59  79  60 /  11  16  26 100                                  
NATCHEZ       83  65  79  53 /   9  16  51 100                                  
GREENVILLE    77  63  76  50 /  12  29  63 100                                  
GREENWOOD     78  63  78  54 /   7  19  57 100                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-          
     059>062.                                                                   
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-          
     023>026.                                                                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
415 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC                   
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW            
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL SWING EAST TODAY TO THE TEXAS               
BIG BEND AND THEN NORTHEAST TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE            
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW                
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX               
TUESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE            
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR TODAY THOUGH...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS              
SHOWS A 1000MB LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
THESE FEATURES HAS KEPT OUR WINDS UP ALL NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN A             
WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE                  
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF AREA TODAY MEETING LOCAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT              
AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY               
AND A WIND ADVISORY WL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR TUESDAY AND             
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA. WL INCREASE AREA OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY TO INCORPORATE ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST                
COUNTIES. THE WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE               
BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY. CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN             
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED BACK IN            
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BY SUN DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE                 
TODAY AS WELL BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WAA             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO THE              
MID 70S NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD TONIGHT IN THE              
LOWER 60S AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS              
WERE CLOSE AND ACCEPTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WERE TOO COOL IN              
THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW             
WILL BE STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AS THEY APPROACH OUR CWFA. A STRONGLY             
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK                
OVER OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING              
CAP BUT RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY. THERE MAY BE A            
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVER STORMS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND                    
PARISHES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS            
WILL BE WITH THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.            
/22/                                                                            
.LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE BIG DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO             
PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST               
THAT THE COMBINATION OF RATHER LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO POOR                     
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES)...HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND                       
SHEAR...CONCENTRATED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...AND DEEP SHEAR VECTORS                  
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROPER               
RECIPE FOR A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST             
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AMBIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE              
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND FREQUENT GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH             
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT DAMAGE BEFORE STORMS EVEN ARRIVE.             
THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE WILL BE ABLE TO BRING POWERFUL LOWER                   
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS (>50 KTS AT 2500 FT) DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN MORE            
EFFICIENTLY. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A 700 MB "DRY SLOT" GETTING                    
ENTRAINED INTO THE ANTICIPATED NORTH TO THE SOUTH ORIENTED SQUALL               
LINE BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING SUGGESTS RAPID FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF             
THE FEATURE IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER                 
RAISE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT MINOR                  
SURFACE INVERSIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA                 
COULD BUFFER THE GROUND FROM THE WORST OF THE WEATHER...BUT MODEL               
SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SUGGEST THIS AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY              
THAT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.              
THE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR REFERRED TO ABOVE WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE               
FOR LEWP (LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN) SIGNATURES THAT COULD EASILY SPIN             
UP TORNADOES. FINALLY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF            
A SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE REGION FURTHER LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
ANY WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUES (AND MODEL OUTPUT BACKS                
THAT UP).                                                                       
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MAY NOT COME THROUGH TILL THAT DAYLIGHT HOURS             
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS DRY AIR AT 700 MB WILL BE             
BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE EASTWARD-RACING SQUALL LINE              
SO EFFICIENTLY THAT A SORT OF SMALL-SCALE COLD FRONT WILL BE                    
CREATED. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S               
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING BACK UP AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT OOZES THROUGH             
AND THE MEAT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MORE RAIN                
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLATED STORMS NOT OUT OF             
THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT. NO SEVERE WEATHER              
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY RAIN SHOULD BE PULLING OUT IN            
THE AFTERNOON (OR EARLIER). LATESTS MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS)                 
SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK IN ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD             
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING BEFORE EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A            
STRUGGLE MOVING UPWARD AND I WENT WITH MUCH LOWER 00Z MEX                       
GUIDANCE (WHICH FORECASTS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH GUSTY              
NORTHWEST WINDS). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL              
FOR WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY SINCE ANY EARLIER CLEARING FROM WEST            
TO EAST SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO RESPOND UPWARD QUICKLY.                           
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR                 
SKIES COMBINE OVER THE ARKLAMISS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT.               
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE NOW ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS...BUT NO              
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR A WARM UP TO                 
START ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE HAVING A RATHER TOUGH TIME WITH THE              
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO THE IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE             
WEEK. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF                   
SUGGESTED A SOUTHEAST MOVING WAVE TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY OVER THE PLAINS            
AND SPUR CYCLOGENESIS NEARBY OUR REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVED TOWARD            
THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. THAT RECIPE WOULD HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR             
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. NOW MODELS THINK THIS WAVE            
WILL NOT AMPLIFY MUCH AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST...WITH MOST OF ITS                  
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FRONT                 
COULD STILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...BUT               
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT OR MOISTURE FOR THE               
PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THIS FORECAST GENERALLY BUYS INTO              
THE LATEST IDEA...BUT GIVEN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE I                
WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IT MODELS TRENDED BACK TO A                   
STORMIER SOLUTION WITHIN A FEW DAYS. WE`LL SEE.                                 
I GENERALLY STUCK RIGHT WITH LATEST 00Z MEX POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH              
THE LONG TERM. MAIN DEVIATIONS WERE TO POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS EVENT            
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH 100 PERCENTS. EXPECT                
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND (ASIDE            
FROM THE QUICK CHILLY PERIOD BEHIND EARLY WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONTAL              
PASSAGE). /BB/                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH                  
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.            
THE FOCUS TODAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 14-00Z.              
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH LIGHTEST IN THE                   
SOUTHEAST. /22/                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  62  79  54 /   4  16  32  98                                  
MERIDIAN      79  57  79  56 /   4   7  23 100                                  
VICKSBURG     81  63  80  53 /   9  18  55 100                                  
HATTIESBURG   81  59  79  60 /  11  16  26 100                                  
NATCHEZ       82  65  79  53 /   9  16  51 100                                  
GREENVILLE    76  63  76  50 /  12  29  63 100                                  
GREENWOOD     77  63  78  54 /   7  19  57 100                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY              
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-059>062.                                            
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY              
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                            
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY              
     FOR ARZ074-075.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: BB                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
845 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING WILL                 
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER                    
FLOODING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BEYOND.                                  
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS A BIT INTO TEXAS.                    
ELONGATED UPPER JET ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS THROUGH                    
EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE                
REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN THE LOWER                
LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO                
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT                     
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOOT HEEL OF MO TO NEAR LITTLE               
ROCK AND TEXARKANA. A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RIDE                          
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER                    
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.                                                             
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS...FRONTOGENESIS IN BOTH               
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE              
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LOW               
WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE TEXAS...LIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST                  
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT DOES                
SO...JOINING THE NORTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL                   
RESULT IN A SLOW END TO OUR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EASTWARD                
PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE THIS RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO                  
NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WAITING UNTIL THE                      
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW                    
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEP                
CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NEARLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAINFALL                   
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE GOING FORECAST OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT                   
LOOKS GOOD...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE                
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.                                                    
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                 
AFTERNOON. THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO                   
FAR...WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE UP                
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY                 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY MAKE FLOODING MATTERS WORSE.                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS                      
NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA             
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL               
JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.               
MOISTURE IS RIDING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST                        
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...INTO MOST OF THE CWA. UPPER LOW                   
STILL DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SO THE MOISTURE TRAIN WILL                  
STAY IN TACT OVER NIGHT. SERIOUS MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING IS IN                 
THE PROCESS OF COMING TO FRUITION.                                              
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2.5                   
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. HPC QPF GUIDANCE              
SHOWING ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR COMMUNITIES SOUTH AND EAST              
OF INTERSTATE 44 FOR TONIGHT. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE                
ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. FLASH              
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT AREAS TO REFLECT THESE PRECIP AMOUNTS.                                
UPPER LOW OPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO                 
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                         
CLAYCOMB                                                                        
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
IN THE LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THIS FLOW...EACH HAVING              
AT LEAST A MINOR EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.                                
THE NICEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY AS LOW                   
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ISSUES A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INTO               
THE AREA BRIEFLY. THIS LOW WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH...LARGELY              
AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI AND PERHAPS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT             
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY BUT            
WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO CREATE A              
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THIS SYSTEM WITH MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER               
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS              
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID             
LEVEL LIFT AND THE JET PATTERN PRESENT...THIS BECOMES BELIEVABLE.               
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A QUESTION OF JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE              
WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                                              
IT APPEARS THAT THE GULF WILL OPEN UP BY LATE MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY               
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE                
BROUGHT NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A WELL              
DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA. THE GFS ON THE             
OTHER HAND...HAS A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HAVE CHANCE               
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE MENTION            
OF THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT                
COLD AIR BROUGHT IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW DOES NOT APPEAR                      
LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL            
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL INTO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                          
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...PERIODS OF MODERATE HEAVY RAIN                
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                
PERSIST. WENT AHEAD WITH LOCAL RULE OF THUMB WITH 850MB THERMAL                 
TROUGH LIFTING CEILINGS. GETS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE JLN TERMINAL                  
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SGF TERMINAL                    
PROBABLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. ALL DEPENDS              
THOUGH ON HOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERNIGHT.                                   
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR TODAY                                                 
SITE          AMOUNT     YEAR                                                   
JOPLIN         1.42      1984                                                   
SPRINGFIELD    2.79      1889                                                   
VICHY/ROLLA    1.33      1944                                                   
WEST PLAINS    1.29      1975                                                   
LD                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-                 
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.                                           
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
615 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                 
AFTERNOON. THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO                   
FAR...WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE UP                
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY                 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY MAKE FLOODING MATTERS WORSE.                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS                      
NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA             
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL               
JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.               
MOISTURE IS RIDING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST                        
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...INTO MOST OF THE CWA. UPPER LOW                   
STILL DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SO THE MOISTURE TRAIN WILL                  
STAY IN TACT OVER NIGHT. SERIOUS MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING IS IN                 
THE PROCESS OF COMING TO FRUITION.                                              
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2.5                   
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. HPC QPF GUIDANCE              
SHOWING ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR COMMUNITIES SOUTH AND EAST              
OF INTERSTATE 44 FOR TONIGHT. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE                
ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. FLASH              
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT AREAS TO REFLECT THESE PRECIP AMOUNTS.                                
UPPER LOW OPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO                 
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                         
CLAYCOMB                                                                        
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
IN THE LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THIS FLOW...EACH HAVING              
AT LEAST A MINOR EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.                                
THE NICEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY AS LOW                   
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ISSUES A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INTO               
THE AREA BRIEFLY. THIS LOW WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH...LARGELY              
AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI AND PERHAPS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT             
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY BUT            
WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO CREATE A              
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THIS SYSTEM WITH MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER               
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS              
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID             
LEVEL LIFT AND THE JET PATTERN PRESENT...THIS BECOMES BELIEVABLE.               
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A QUESTION OF JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE              
WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                                              
IT APPEARS THAT THE GULF WILL OPEN UP BY LATE MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY               
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE                
BROUGHT NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A WELL              
DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA. THE GFS ON THE             
OTHER HAND...HAS A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HAVE CHANCE               
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE MENTION            
OF THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT                
COLD AIR BROUGHT IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW DOES NOT APPEAR                      
LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL            
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL INTO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                          
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...PERIODS OF MODERATE HEAVY RAIN                
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                
PERSIST. WENT AHEAD WITH LOCAL RULE OF THUMB WITH 850MB THERMAL                 
TROUGH LIFTING CEILINGS. GETS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE JLN TERMINAL                  
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SGF TERMINAL                    
PROBABLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. ALL DEPENDS              
THOUGH ON HOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERNIGHT.                                   
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR TODAY                                                 
SITE          AMOUNT     YEAR                                                   
JOPLIN         1.42      1984                                                   
SPRINGFIELD    2.79      1889                                                   
VICHY/ROLLA    1.33      1944                                                   
WEST PLAINS    1.29      1975                                                   
LD                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-                
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.                                           
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1028 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW DECREASING RAPIDLY AS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN BAND WEAKENS.                  
KEPT ERN MOST COUNTIES HEADLINES GOING FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY                
CANCEL THOSE SOON. 12Z RUC INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR                        
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH NRN STREAM SHOULD BEGIN TO                
DOMINATE AND DOWNGLIDE SHOULD TAKE OVER. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AS               
WELL.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
STRONG LIFT FROM FRONTO BAND HAS BEEN REALIZED AS FCST BY MODELS                
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH LOCATION HAS DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH THAN                 
EARLIER GUIDANCE. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS ALREADY UNDER THE MAIN BAND                
WITH AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR HERE AT LBF 3 OF LAST 4 HOURS. EXPECT            
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND TO BE FROM IML TO LBF TO BBW FROM MOSAIC PAST FEW            
HOURS. CONVECTIVE RETURNS MOVING UP FROM W.KS IS VERY CONCERNING AS             
THIS MERGES WITH PRESENT BAND OR CREATES IS OWN SWATH OF HEAVIER                
PCPN. WILL DROP FAR NW CORNER FROM ADV AND UPGRADE FAR SE CWA INTO              
WARNING WITH APPROACHING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO                     
ACCUMULATE THE SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE                 
INDICATING THE DARKENING FEATURE ACROSS NW NMEX WILL MOVE OVER CWA              
BY LATE MORNING AND ERODE THE MOISTURE FROM DENDRITIC LAYER OVER                
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA AND EITHER TURN TO DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SNOW              
SO HAVE INTRODUCED THIS TO WX GRIDS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOC WITH             
EPV ON NOSE OF STRONGER JET MAX STRENGTHENING ON LEADING SIDE OF                
TROF AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LTG INTO SW KS AS A RESULT.              
THIS MIX OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE WARNING THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON IF NEEDED AND WILL NOT ALTER ENDING TIME ATTM...HOWEVER IF            
TREND OF 06Z MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED EVENT MOST LIKELY WILL BE                
OVER BY NEXT ZONE ISSUANCES. SNOW COVER WILL AFFECT TEMPS FCST AT               
LEAST NEXT TWO DAYS AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPS IN SE THIRD OF CWA.                  
HAD MINIMAL TIME TO LOOK BEYOND FIRST PART OF FCST AND MADE SOME                
MINOR TWEAKS WITH NEXT PCPN EVENT HEADING TOWARD N.CWA WED NIGHT                
INTO THURSDAY.                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
TODAY...POWERFUL FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW AND LIFR ALIGNED                    
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM KIML TO SOUTH OF KONL IS EXPECTED TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW               
SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR AND EVEN VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD               
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR PERHAPS CONTINUING ACROSS A               
LINE FROM KOGA TO KONL AND SOUTHEAST.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVEN
026>029-038.                                                                    
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ006-007.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DP/CC/JWS                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
900 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL BRING            
INCREASING HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER              
THE AREA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                   
PLAIN... WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE                      
WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH                  
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL DRY                   
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. &&                           
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
THIS EVENING...                                                                 
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUD              
BASES 2 TO 6KFT) STREAMING FROM OFF THE FLORIDA SE COAST...                     
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SAVANNAH VALLEY...AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA.                
THIS AREA OF STRATUS LINES UP WELL WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS OF GOOD                
925MB SPEED CONVERGENCE OF 30 TO 35KTS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A                     
RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
EVENING... AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA.                   
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A PSEUDO WARM FRONT...PRIMARILY A                    
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...HAS JUST BEGUN TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN              
TIER COUNTIES. MODELS WERE OVERZEALOUS THAN REALITY IN THE TIMING OF            
THIS MODERATION IN AIRMASS. HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH                         
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY                
RETURN FLOW (5 TO 10KTS) WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEWPOINT                        
RECOVERY...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE                
SOUTH...TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH.                                            
OVERNIGHT...                                                                    
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST                             
OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT CLOUDS              
TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP            
THROUGH 12Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO LOWER WITH            
A STABLE BL. WILL REMOVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS... INCREASING                  
MOISTURE... AND SURFACE WINDS REMAINING AT 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...               
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                              
AS OF 145 PM THIS AFTERNOON...                                                  
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE                
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO               
VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEST             
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT              
WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS                   
CENTRAL NC... SUGGESTING THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE            
REGION BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (LATE AFTERNOON)... AND                
PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MIDNIGHT.                       
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND QPF... MUCH OF OUR REGION            
WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE (WITH THE MAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO BE BOWING            
LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE). THE LATEST                
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE IN A                 
GRADUAL WEAKENING MODE AS THEY PASS JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE             
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENT MID LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY SOME AS IT             
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER...              
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (180 TO 240 METERS AT H5)... COMBINED WITH VERY             
STRONG SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION OVER            
OUR REGION SUGGEST VERY STRONG FORCING ALONG THE LINE. THE MODEL                
FORECASTS OF A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT H85 POINT TOWARD STRONG WIND            
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE.                   
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE            
LINE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTORS TO            
A MAJOR SEVERE OUTBREAK INCLUDE LIMITED INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN               
THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK.            
BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE                 
POTENTIAL THERE.                                                                
WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN WRUNG OUT            
OVER AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THERE                
WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE (PW`S OF 1.5 INCHES OR                   
GREATER) THAT WILL STILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER NC. THIS SUGGESTS             
TRENDING TOWARD THE HEAVIER QPF (BY THE GFS) OVER THE DRIER NAM. A              
QUICK 0.50 TO 0.75 (LOCALLY 1 INCH) SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST (IN 1-2            
HOURS)... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE EAST.                     
SENSIBLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST AND CLOUDY                
WEST WITH A GUSTY SSW WIND AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.                   
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS... 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS                
TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON BREAKS... ESPECIALLY SE.                  
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S NW... RANGING POSSIBLY INTO THE              
UPPER 70S OVER THE SANDHILLS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                   
THUNDERSTORMS (CATEGORICAL POP) IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON                   
WEST... SPREADING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY EVENING. POP                
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NIL FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT                   
PASSAGE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.                                    
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID              
40S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
FAIRLY BENIGN WX WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE                 
FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID                
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAPID CLEARING EARLY THURS             
MORNING WILL YIELD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAPID DRYING. A MODEST             
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. BUFR                   
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXED LAYER ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 5500               
FEET WITH MAX WINDS IN THAT LAYER UP TO 30 KTS OR SO. COLD ADVECTION            
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURS WITH MIXING EXPECT TO SEE WINDS ON            
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25. MOS TEMPS IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.                
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL             
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.                                                      
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVES ON FRI WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH                 
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE              
SYSTEM SHOULD RIDE BY TO OUT NW WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN                  
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF               
UPPER TROF SLIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT               
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYING NORTH OF AREA. EXPECT PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL              
ALLOWS AFTN TEMPS ON SAT TO REACH 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK COLD               
FRONT SLIPS ACROSS NC SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS BUT DRY                       
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS SUN MORNING SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO                
AROUND 40.                                                                      
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FROM SUN ONWARD RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.            
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM TROF THAT                
ARRIVES ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF REACHES THE MO             
VALLEY ON SUN AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON MON. LUKS LIKE SFC                     
CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ACROSS THE OH WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS                
OFF THE GA COAST. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THEE IS AN INCREASING                     
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP DURING THIS EVENT SO WILL INCLUDE              
CHC POPS FOR A COUPLE OF PERIODS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HPC DISCUSSION              
FROM THIS AM SUMS IT UP WELL...CONSIDERING THAT THE OVERALL ARRAY OF            
GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPAN THE ENTIRE RIDGE TO TROF              
CONTINUUM OVER THE ROCKIES BY DAY 6... IT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH             
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLN. DRIER WX ARRIVES LATE MON AND                
TUES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...                                                     
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...NEAR SATURATED AIR EXISTS IN STRENGTHENING             
SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 6000 FT.                  
OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LOWER LAYER INCREASES                    
SOMEWHAT AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CIGS 3 TO 5 THSD FT                  
LOWERING TO 1 TO 3 THSD FT DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND TO            
BLO 1 THSD FT INVOF KINT AND KGSO AROUND DAYBREAK WED. ON WED... THE            
LOWER LAYER SHOULD MIX WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING                   
LEADING TO STRATOCUMULUS CIGS LIFTING TO BTN 3 AND 5 THSD FT AND                
CLOUD COVER OCNLY SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT               
FROM THE WEST WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS WED AFTERNOON WITH              
CUMULUS TOWERING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER 21Z.                                                       
WED NIGHT... THE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                 
AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS                 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF STATES THURSDAY            
RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY COULD                 
RESULT IN SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY.                      
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
LONG TERM...BLAES                                                               
AVIATION...BADGETT                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...MWS                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1048 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN                    
SEABOARD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT                    
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE...A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AND TRACK QUICKLY            
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                   
CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE               
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SLACK GRADIENT               
AND LOW DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE HIGH WILL                   
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS               
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. CIRRUS AND A FEW AC WERE SPILLING OVER THE                 
RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE                      
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RUC AND THE NAM UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE                       
FORECASTS SHOWING THE CIRRUS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE HOLDING                     
TOGETHER SOME AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SATELLITE TRENDS               
AS OF LATE EVENING SHOWED THIS TO BE VERIFYING WELL. EXPECT THE                 
CIRRUS TO THIN AS IT MOVES PAST THE RIDGE AXIS SO...AT                          
MOST...ANTICIPATE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.                          
DESPITE AMPLE 850MB MOISTURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...VERY DRY              
850MB AIR WAS PRESENT ON THE 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS FROM EASTERN                     
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND                  
VIRGINIA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL                    
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE STATE...BUT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY               
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. TRENDS OF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS                 
AND MOS GUIDANCE IS FOR SLIGHTLY FEWER CLOUDS AND WARMER DAYTIME                
HIGHS TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE SATELLITE DPI LOW              
CLOUD IMAGES CORRELATING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TOWARD THE                   
FLORIDA GULF COAST...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...SHOW                    
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION AT PRESENT. AT THIS              
POINT OPTED TO SHOW A MINOR INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...            
ABOUT A CATEGORY PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN ZONES...AND IF THERE                  
CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING EVIDENCE OF BETTER MIXING AND FEWER LOW              
CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY HIGHS MAY END UP BEING NUDGED UP EVEN MORE WITH              
UPCOMING FORECAST ISSUANCES. GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW                 
FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KT BASED ON INCREASING 925MB                  
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                          
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD             
OF APPROACHING FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND LOW CLOUDS ON THE                 
INCREASE AS WELL. THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT              
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TO MID 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUNRISE                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STILL MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY              
BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT NOR WIDESPREAD BEFORE MID AFTERNOON.             
ALL RAIN SHOULD EXIT MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MIDNIGHT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FORECAST ABOVE 500 WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF              
50 KNOTS BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE               
A BIT MORE STABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN ON MARCH FIFTEENTH.                     
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ZERO...IT DOES APPEAR LESSENED                
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT.                                                 
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD                
BE SLIGHTLY ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED ONE                 
INCH IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.                                             
WITH PRECIPITATION A BIT DELAYED FROM THINKING OF SUNDAY...AFTERNOON            
HIGHS SHOULD BE LOW 70S WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT                 
LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HINTED AT ON SOME MODELS             
YESTERDAY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS MORE CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.               
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS                 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IF LOW STRATUS ADVECTS INTO              
THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES                   
COULD STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH PAST 50 DEGREES...AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE              
AS WELL. WILL STAY A LITTLE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT THIS TIME                 
AND ADDRESS THIS IN THE FUTURE.                                                 
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO WEST MONDAY BUT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER               
MOISTURE REMAINS TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CUMULUS MONDAY AND PERHAPS                
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.                                                           
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S OR LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.               
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL                  
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...WITH THE                
RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS ALONG              
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT WINDS                
AND PASSING MID AND MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.                                   
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN               
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH UNDER RETURN FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED               
OFF ON THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTANT LOW CLOUDS                   
TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A LATER ARRIVAL OF                       
STRATOCUMULUS...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR AND OCCUR                    
AROUND 18Z AT GSO/INT AND 20-23Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR CIGS WILL                 
BEGIN TO ENTER INT CLOSE TO 00Z AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT                     
DEVELOPS. -JFB/BLS                                                              
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...MVFR CONDITIONS              
ARE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR A             
FEW HOURS WED MORNING.  CONDITIONS MIX TO VFR WEATHER AHEAD OF A                
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50 KTS             
WITHIN 3 THSD FT OF THE SURFACE LATE WED.  THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY             
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL              
NC WED EVENING.                                                                 
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT EARLY WED NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY            
WITH DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE                
VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OFF             
THE COAST AND SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE                
WEEK.  -RFG                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BLS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...RLH                                                                 
AVIATION...BLS/JFB/RFG                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
751 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA                  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IN ADVANCE              
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 750 PM MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE                
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SLACK GRADIENT               
AND LOW DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE HIGH WILL                   
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS               
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. CIRRUS AND A FEW AC WERE SPILLING OVER THE                 
RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE                      
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RUC AND THE NAM UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE                       
FORECASTS SHOWING THE CIRRUS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE HOLDING                     
TOGETHER SOME AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE CIRRUS              
TO THIN AS IT MOVES PAST THE RIDGE AXIS SO...AT MOST...ANTICIPATE               
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY                  
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.                                                               
LATE TONIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A               
SURGE OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF DRIFTING NORTH                 
UP THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE LAYER                
OF MOISTURE IS ABOUT 100 MB DEEP AND BECOMES SATURATED BENEATH THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINED BY THE SHARP RIDGE ALOFT. THERE IS              
SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE EASTWARD                      
TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE FOLLOWING DIURNAL MIXING...AND THOUGH                
IR IMAGES DO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS TAKING PLACE IN                     
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS FORECAST BY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS OF               
THE RUC AND THE NAM...THE LATEST GFS MOS IS DELAYED IN BRINGING                 
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.               
STILL...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS ESPECIALLY WESTERN                
ZONES WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING IN THE ENTIRE AREA                     
BEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED GRIDDED               
AND WORDED SOUTHERLY FORECAST WINDS IN THE WEST SLIGHTLY DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATING A LITTLE MORE MIXING...IN LINE WITH THE              
GRADUALLY INCREASING GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AND A                
SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN MOS GUIDANCE WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                          
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD             
OF APPROACHING FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND LOW CLOUDS ON THE                 
INCREASE AS WELL. THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT              
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TO MID 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUNRISE                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STILL MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY              
BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT NOR WIDESPREAD BEFORE MID AFTERNOON.             
ALL RAIN SHOULD EXIT MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MIDNIGHT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FORECAST ABOVE 500 WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF              
50 KNOTS BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE               
A BIT MORE STABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN ON MARCH FIFTEENTH.                     
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ZERO...IT DOES APPEAR LESSENED                
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT.                                                 
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD                
BE SLIGHTLY ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED ONE                 
INCH IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.                                             
WITH PRECIPITATION A BIT DELAYED FROM THINKING OF SUNDAY...AFTERNOON            
HIGHS SHOULD BE LOW 70S WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT                 
LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HINTED AT ON SOME MODELS             
YESTERDAY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS MORE CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.               
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS                 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IF LOW STRATUS ADVECTS INTO              
THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES                   
COULD STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH PAST 50 DEGREES...AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE              
AS WELL. WILL STAY A LITTLE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT THIS TIME                 
AND ADDRESS THIS IN THE FUTURE.                                                 
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO WEST MONDAY BUT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER               
MOISTURE REMAINS TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CUMULUS MONDAY AND PERHAPS                
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.                                                           
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S OR LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.               
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 750 PM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE          
TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS              
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A                  
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND                   
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH               
LEVEL CLOUDS.                                                                   
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN              
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH UNDER RETURN FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED               
OFF ON THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTANT LOW CLOUDS                   
TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A LATER ARRIVAL OF                       
STRATOCUMULUS...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR AND OCCUR AROUND             
18Z AT GSO/INT AND 20-23Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO               
ENTER INT CLOSE TO 00Z AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. -JFB/BLS           
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...MVFR CONDITIONS              
ARE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR A             
FEW HOURS WED MORNING.  CONDITIONS MIX TO VFR WEATHER AHEAD OF A                
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50 KTS             
WITHIN 3 THSD FT OF THE SURFACE LATE WED.  THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY             
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL              
NC WED EVENING.                                                                 
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT EARLY WED NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY            
WITH DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE                
VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OFF             
THE COAST AND SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE                
WEEK.  -RFG                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BLS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...RLH                                                                 
AVIATION...BLS/JFB/RFG                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
125 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS OF 1159 PM SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE TO INCLUDE A "SMALL              
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE LATE TONIGHT FOR THE INCOMING                  
NORTHERLY SURGE. THIS SURGE IS CAUSING NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR               
THE NC/VA BORDER AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL ACTUALLY BRING 25 KT WINDS            
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL TREND INTO THIS                           
CHANGE...BRINGING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 2-3            
AM AND HOLDING THEM THERE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. NO               
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                     
TRA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY...THEN                
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                   
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN              
FROM THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...                                               
AS OF 9 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND TRENDS INDICATE CLEAR                
SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SFC                 
BASED INVERSION EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO                     
DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT...EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL START             
THE NIGHT. AFTER 2AM MONDAY...A SHALLOW CAA SURGE TO COMMENCE AND               
LAST INTO LATE MORNING MONDAY. IT IS BEST PROGGED USING THE 925 MB              
TEMPS. IN ADDITION...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE              
INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE SFC              
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOOK FOR SFC NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE            
ENOUGH ACROSS THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT A FULL NIGHTS WORTH              
OF RAD COOLING. MODELS INDICATING ENUF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS               
FOR FEW/SCT ALTOCU BY DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MIDDAY               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE            
CWA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A             
NE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE               
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL                  
PROPEL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. ALSO...THE GFS IS                  
HINTING AT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH EARLY              
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT                
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE A WIND SHIFT. SPEAKING OF             
WIND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE EASTERN             
CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND             
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3PM SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COLD FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE               
AREA WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION                   
REGARDING A LATE AFTERNOON OR WED NIGHT FROPA. SPC HAS ALREADY                  
HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC FOR THE                       
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON ACCOUNT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND               
FIELDS. THE SWRLY FLOW WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER                
70S. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE A STORM               
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPS                
TO START WITH A SLOW UPWARD TREND AS THE WEEKENDED NEARS. POPS                  
WILL BE BROUGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SUNDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF               
THIS WESTERN STORM SYSTEM. SLOWER SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY END UP                  
BEING FAVORED HOWEVER AS A CERTAIN DEGREE OF PHASING MAY OCCUR                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
A NORTH-NORTHEAST COOL SURGE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH               
CAROLINA AT THE PRESENT TIME. STRONG PRESSURE RISES...ON THE ORDER              
OF 8 MB IN JUST 6 HOURS...ARE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.                   
SURFACE WINDS OF 8-10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KT AFTER SUNRISE AS              
MIXING COMMENCES. THE GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND               
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. CIRRUS             
AND PERHAPS SOME MID-LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT                 
SHOULD FADE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT MID AND UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.                                                        
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THUNDERSTORMS              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD               
FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 PM SUNDAY...WEAKNESS IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD HAS CAUSED               
WIND SPEEDS TO TEMPORARILY FALL BELOW 15 KT. AFFECTS FROM THE                   
INTENSIFYING LOW EAST NORTHEAST AND WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE EAST                 
COAST OF THE U.S ARE NO MORE. IN ITS WAKE...SFC HIGH TO RIDGE SOUTH             
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SHALLOW BUT                  
SHORT-LIVED CAA SURGE...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PG...WILL PUSH            
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE                 
INDICATED A SLIGHT VEERING IN THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS              
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMPRISE            
THE SEAS AND WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT AROUND 3 FT NEAR               
SHORE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY ISSUING A SHORT TERM SMALL             
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAZARD.                                                  
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL                
MOVE EAST...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NNE EARLY IN THE DAY TO ENE               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL                
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WOULD MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND            
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WOULD MOVE QUICKLY                     
INLAND...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS               
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AN              
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS             
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD            
TO 5-6 FT AND PUSH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                    
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO START THE PD                  
AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC COLD FRONT. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT                 
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ANY GALE GUSTS AND HOW SSTS                  
WILL AFFECT MIXING. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT               
BEHIND THE FRONT. OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE                
HIGHEST SEAS OUT OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY BUT AS THE GRADIENT               
IS SLOW TO DECREASE SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WINDS MAY VEER              
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING                      
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BACON                                                                
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...MORGAN                                                             
LONG TERM...BACON                                                               
AVIATION...TRA                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
846 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL ND                   
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH (WARM AIR ADVECTION) FROM NORTHERN                   
STREAM SHORTWAVE. APPEARS COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. WILL KEEP 20 POPS               
CONSIDERING CURRENT ISOLD NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT WILL SPEED              
UP TIMING IN THE GRIDS. P-TYPE WITH THIS SFC TROUGH TRICKY FOR THE              
W FA...00Z RUC13 SHOWING 925MB-850MB REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. SFC              
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR                 
FZRA. FOR NOW WILL CHANGE DVL BASIN TO RAIN AND SNOW (NO FZRA).                 
THINK PROBABILITY OF FZRA TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL                 
MAINTAIN P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WITH                 
00Z RUC13 SHOWING THERMAL PROFILE BELOW FREEZING. CLOUD COVER AND               
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH                    
TEMPERATURE FALL. SNOW COVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE                       
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH              
THE SNOW SO CLOSE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...KFAR/KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER A STRATUS                   
DECK...IFR WITH CIGS AROUND 600FT. -SN WILL CONTINUE UNDER MVFR/IFR             
CIGS IN BJI AS LIFT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NE. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPPER               
OFF TONIGHT BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. CIGS WILL                  
SLOWLY LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE S TO THE NW                
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
ALL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN STRONGLY                      
DOWNPLAYING WHAT WAS ONCE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR PARTS               
OF SE SD INTO CNTRL MN TONIGHT. LOOKING AT RADAR AND UPPER AIR JET              
STRUCTURE WOULD APPEAR BEST BET FOR PCPN WAS ACTUALLY EARLIER                   
TODAY WITH ACTUALLY NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT TONIGHT FOR MUCH -SN.                  
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY RADAR WITH SHOWS NO ECHOES AT ALL IN SD/NEB.               
OBS/RADAR STILL INDICATE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW IN WCNTRL MN                  
(BJ-DTL-FFM EAST) AND THIS WILL LINGER A BIT INTO THE EVENING                   
BEFORE MOVING OUT...AND THEN QUESTION IF ANY MORE WILL DEVELOP                  
LATER TONIGHT. ONE CAVEAT IS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                 
STILL PROGGED FROM MARSHALL MN TO SOUTH OF DLH AND GFS DOES STILL               
WANT TO GENERATE PCPN WITH THIS BAND. GOING WITH THIS IDEA WILL                 
LINGER SOME POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA THRU THE NIGHT               
BUT DROP ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA.                 
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER FAST MOVING 500 MB VORT WILL MOVE THRU ERN ND               
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MN TUESDAY. GFS STANDS ALONE IN GENERATING                
SOME LIGHT QPF WHILE OTHER MODELS DRY. GIVEN SOME WEAK ECHOES IN                
ERN MT AND IN SASK WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN 20 POP OVERNIGHT               
INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AS               
DEW PTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. SKY COVER A BIT OF A TROUBLE...AS                   
CLEAR WEDGE REMAINS DVL-JMS-BIS AREA AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TIL              
MID CLDS ADVANCE EAST FROM WRN ND THIS EVE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL                   
LIKELY HOLD TOO ROX-GFK-ABR EASTWARD IN DEEPER 850 MB MOISTURE                  
STILL PROGGED TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT.                                           
EXPECT SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND PSBLY A LITTLE -SN TUES                          
MORNING...THEN SOME CLEARING AS 500 MB VORT MOVES EAST. 850 MB                  
TEMPS ARE JUST A TOUCH COOLERE THAN TODAY...BUT WITH SOME SUN AND               
INCREASING BARE GROUND IN SPOTS IN PARTS OF ERN ND THINK ITS TIME               
TO ADJUST TEMPS UP SOME IN ND. DID GO ALONG WITH GFS WITH NEXT 500              
MB VORT DIVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM LOOKED WAY                       
OVERDONE. DO EXPECT A NARROW AREA OF SOME PCPN RIGHT ALONG VORT                 
TRACK FROM WRN ND INTO ERN SD WITH CHANCE OF R/S BRUSHING FAR                   
SOUTHWEST FCST AREA.  ADDED 20 POP FOR THIS FOR WED AFTN.                       
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...                                                          
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND              
THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLN NEXT WEEKEND. 500MB FLOW LOOKS              
TO CONTINUE ITS ACTIVE MARCH PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.                
FRIDAY AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
WILL PROVIDE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AIR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO              
THE NEXT WAVE PROLONGING THE START OF PCPN. THUS DELAYED THE 20 POP             
TO JUST THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FA ON FRI. TWEAKED THE POPS ON SAT            
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL                
KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE SAT            
AND SUN TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF             
THE NEXT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL                   
AVERAGES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
156 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...ACROSS OH AND               
NORTHERN WV.  WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS             
OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
RAIN IS MAKING PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AS A WARM FRONT                
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF HTS/CRW/BKW AND THEN EXTENDED WEST TOWARD                
LEX/SDF.  RAIN CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY               
AND THEN HEADS EAST INTO OHIO AND NRN WV.  SO HAVE INCREASED POPS               
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE HELD TO THE DRY WEATHER SOUTH AND             
EAST OF CRW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THE NEW 12Z NAM            
SHOWS THAT THIS INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION MAKES IT THROUGH CRW              
AND MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS BKW.  ALSO SEEING THAT THE CLOUDS WILL                
HOLD IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS SO HAVE INCREASED THE SKY COVER AS WELL            
AS LOWERING THE HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AND THAT MAY             
NOT BE NEAR ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE NRN LOCATIONS ALONG THE US 50                
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER NORTH.                                                     
BY THIS EVENING...THIS INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD FINALLY LIFT                 
NORTH OF THE REGION BY 6Z AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND                    
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY.  HAVE LOWERS POPS                
SOME FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH NEW GUIDANCE ARRIVING WILL BE TWEAKING              
FURTHER TO SHOW THE DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT.                                       
AS FAR AS THE FLOOD WATCH GOES...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA BY 7                    
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO MOVE THE AXIS OF RAIN INTO NWRN WV AS WELL.                
STILL COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE OH             
INTO NRN WV AS THE RAIN TRAINS ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                 
COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.  SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER             
LEVEL LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NE ON THE E             
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS THE                
SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED...ENOUGH SO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA SE OF THE             
OH RIVER WILL NOT HAVE THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN OH            
OVER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS.  INDEED...FRONTOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO BE             
WEAK AS THE SYSTEM OPENS UP BUT GOOD UPPER DIV...MID LEVEL CONV OF Q            
AND DEFM STILL EXIST SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT CAT POPS FOR WED.                  
SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT 3 HRS BASED ON LATEST MODEL              
DATA BUT KEPT THE END TIME ABOUT THE SAME.  ROLLED WITH HPC QPF                 
WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE NAM.  THE NAM12 HAD WHAT WAS LIKELY TOO MUCH             
DETAIL FOR THIS PROJECTION IN TIME AS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY            
TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT.  EVENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF SHARPLY                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED SPEED OF THE                  
SYSTEM.                                                                         
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE              
NECESSITATES THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.  THE TIMING OF             
THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ROUGHLY HALF             
OF THE AREA BUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT.  SPC               
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF AREA...THE MOST             
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT                
THUSLY IN HWO.                                                                  
SFC WAVE LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED EVE AS OPEN SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT.              
THIS WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND BRING COLDER AIR IN                
ITS WAKE.  THE COLD ER AIR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW              
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS VERY LATE WED NT.                                      
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WITH SYSTEM...NOTWITHSTANDING CONVECTION...WILL            
LIKELY BE TRANSFERRED DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED EVE,             
PEAK GUSTS OFF THE RUC ALGORITHM USING THE NAM ARE JUST BELOW                   
CRITERIA FOR WIND ADVISORY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SO ONE IS NOT                  
NEEDED DUE TO THE SMALL SCALED NATURE THE EVENT.                                
A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS STREAK THROUGH IN THE FAST WNW FLOW            
ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW A SMALL HINT OF ONE AS EARLY AS THU NT.  A MORE             
ORGANIZED CLIPPER APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LITTLE              
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                                      
ROLLED WITH THE MET FOR HIGHS WED...MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BEING               
LOWER IN THE W WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL             
PASSAGE THERE.  TOOK NUMBERS UP TO THE LOWER MET FOR LOWS WED NT                
WHILE MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS THU.  RAISED LOWS A BIT S THU NT            
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO HIGHS FRI OR LOWS FRI NT.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH             
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW TRACK RIGHT                  
ACROSS WV...POSING A POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE EXTREME             
NORTH.  GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
SECTIONS OF WV BY SAT 06-12Z...SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE REST OF            
THE AREA THRU SUN 00Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW H8 FREEZING LINE JUST NORTH             
OF THE CWA AT 12Z SAT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING COLDER AIR AND              
FREEZING LINE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUN 12Z. THEREFORE...MIXED PRECIP             
OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHILE RAIN            
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS EARLY SATURDAY.             
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS                           
SATURDAY...CAUSING PRECIP TO PREVAIL AS LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE                
AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE                
MIXED PRECIP SAT AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW SAT EVENING.                            
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY ...PROVIDING A               
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ON EASTER SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS SOLUTIONS            
SPREAD FROM DAY 6-7...SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM               
AND CHANGES IN FORECAST COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SRN COAL FIELDS OF WEST                      
VIRGINIA TO NEAR SDF CONTINUES TO BE THE DIVIDE BETWEEN RAIN AND                
DRY WEATHER. THIS FRONT GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON               
AND MOVE INTO PA AND NRN OHIO BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z TONIGHT. IN THE                
BAND OF RAIN NOT SEEING CEILING DIP MUCH BELOW 3500 FT...MOST                   
STILL SHOWING 4000 TO 5000 FT CEILINGS...BUT VISIBILITIES DROPPING              
DOWN TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES IN THE STEADY RAIN FOR PKB/CKB. EKN               
SHOULD GET CLIPPED THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS               
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WED. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL SHIFT              
NORTH WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING                 
AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY VFR CONDITIONS                       
CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND SHOULD REMAIN.                                           
AFTER 12Z WED...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO                   
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH. EXPECT SHRA AND               
TSRA WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING A EARLY AS 15Z FOR PKB/HTS. IT                    
SHOULD BE ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z.                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY/ IFR RA PSBL ALONG AND AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT.                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
HOISTED FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SERN OH DUE TO THE THREAT OF                   
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  FOLLOWING THE NAM OUTPUT WHICH YIELDS ONE TO               
TWO INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA.  DEEP MSTR SURGES NORTHWARD...WHILE             
A BOUNDARY SETS UP THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND IND.  IN                            
ADDITION...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.                
EXPECT STRONG RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RIVERS             
BECOMING SWOLLEN OR POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD WED.  WE WILL BE                  
CLOSELY WATCHING THE MUSKINGUM AND HOCKING RIVERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE            
THEIR RESPECTIVE HEADWATERS GET NAILED WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF              
QPF.  IT WILL TAKE INTO THE WEEKEND OR PERHAPS LONGER BEFORE                    
SECTIONS OF THE MUSKINGUM FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE.  AT THIS                     
POINT...THE GROUND CAN WITHSTAND 1.5 - 2.0 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS                  
GREATER CAUSING HIGH WATER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011-019-020.            
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-            
     083>086.                                                                   
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/29                                                               
NEAR TERM...ESS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TRM                                                                
LONG TERM...TRM/ARJ                                                             
AVIATION...ESS                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
656 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND BE THE               
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED                          
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL                 
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY                  
WEATHER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
PCPN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA              
ERLY THIS MRNG. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTNDG NORTHEAST ALONG THE                 
OHIO RIVER LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. INCREASING LO LVL WAA PRODUCING                
LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS NORTH OF                 
THE WARM FRONT TO SOUTHWEST OF FCST AREA. TEMPS HAD RISEN INTO THE              
40S ACRS THE FCST AREA.                                                         
PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT COMMENCING ACRS REGION                 
THIS MRNG. 06Z RUC HAS A REAL NICE HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PLACEMENT              
OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE STRENGTHENING LO LVL DYNAMICS INVOF THE               
BNDRY. 50-60KT 850 LLJ NOSING NE UP THE OHIO RIVER VLY...FUELING                
AXIS OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH                 
ACRS FCST AREA TODAY. AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO RIDING                  
ALONG BNDRY AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR EMBEDDED TSTMS AS DEEPER GULF                 
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE OH VLY THRU THE MRNG HOURS.              
WHILE QPF HAS BEEN LIGHT (0.10 IN/HOUR OR LESS) UP TO THIS                      
POINT...PCPN ACCUMS APPCHG 0.40-0.60 IN/HOUR CLOSER TO LEAD SFC                 
WAVE ACRS SRN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/SW INDIANA. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER                
RAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG FRNTL BNDRY AND INTO WESTERN FCST              
AREA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                     
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BELIEVE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL              
EXTEND FROM SE INDIANA NORTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL THREE METRO                   
AREAS. THIS ALIGNS VERY NICELY WITH PRECIP EFFICIENCY PROGS WHICH               
INDICATE AXIS OF DEEP CONVERGENCE TO 700MB ALONG NRN FLANK OF                   
STRONG LO LVL JET COMBINED WITH PWATS APPCHG 1.5 INCHES INVOF                   
FRNTL BNDRY. ACRS FAR SRN FCST AREA FROM GRANT CO NORTHEAST INTO                
LEWIS/SCIOTO COS...RAIN LKLY TO BE MORE SCATTERED THIS MRNG AND                 
POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTN AS WELL...AS WARM FRONT FOCUSES FURTHER                  
NORTH OF THIS AREA. HAVE PLACED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT IN THIS                    
AREA...WITH MORE OF THE HEAVIER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOT LIKELY              
TO FOCUS ACRS NE KY/SO CNTRL OH UNTIL THIS EVNG AND OVERNIGHT.                  
REGARDLESS...NOT GOING TO GET FANCY WITH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES AND              
WILL CONTINUE TO LET THEM ROLL AT 12Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA ALONG                
AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FLOOD WATCH ALREADY RUNNING NORTH               
OF I-70 (STARTED AT 06Z) AND THESE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS                   
WELL. WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE GUSTY SOUTH OF THE WARM                    
FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN FAR SRN FCST AREA HIGHLIGHTED ABV WHERE                 
LESS PCPN COVERAGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING OF THE BNDRY LYR AND              
ENABLE SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO LVL JET TO BE PULLED DOWN TO               
THE GROUND.                                                                     
FRNTL BNDRY PULLS BACK TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER              
DEEPENING SFC WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL                 
SHIFT HVY RAIN AXIS SLIGHTLY...TO FOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OF I-71                
WHERE DEEPEST LO LVL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALIGNS WITH SLUG OF GULF                  
MOISTURE. PERSISTENT LO LVL JET AT 60-70KTS ALIGNS JUST EAST OF                 
THIS AREA ALL NIGHT. LARGE AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE SETS UP ACRS OH               
VLY OVERNIGHT TO RIGHT OF 140KT UPR JET ACRS WESTERN GRT LKS. THIS              
COMBINED WITH ADDL UPR JET ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF APPCHG UPR LO                
LATE TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT UPR LVL DYNAMICS ACRS REGION                
AND FURTHER ASSIST IN WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH               
CAT POPS FOR MOST OF FCST AREA EXCEPT FAR SE COUNTIES. EMBEDDED                 
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH AVAIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...                  
FURTHER ADDING TO ROBUST RAINFALL TOTALS.                                       
TEMPS...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO              
THE 50S ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL AT L/M60S ACRS THE              
SOUTH. LEANED IN GENERAL TOWARDS MET GUID FOR AFTN HIGHS. TEMPS                 
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN THE                 
U30S ACRS WEST CNTRL OH AS COOLER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH ON BACK SIDE              
OF FRNTL BNDRY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
PROLONGED RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO WED AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE                
LIFTS THRU OH VLY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DEEPENING WAVE DURING               
THE DAY AHEAD OF APPCHG UPR LO. MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS REMAIN IDEAL               
FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL WITH SECONDARY                
UPR JET AHEAD OF UPR LO LIFTING ACRS FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN.                 
STRONG 60+KT 850 LLJ PERSISTS TO THE RIGHT OF DEEP CONVERGENCE                  
AXIS...TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EAST ACRS FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS                 
FINAL SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU REGION. EVEN AS HEAVIER AXIS                
OF PCPN SHIFTS EAST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AFTN HOURS...MID LVL                
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AXIS ON BACK SIDE OF UPR                
TROF WILL ENABLE RAIN TO PERSIST ALL DAY LONG. EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL              
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THRU ABOUT MID AFTN.              
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM NORTHWEST INTO THE EVNG HOURS...                  
RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET               
SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFT MIDNIGHT. WHEN PCPN IS ALL SAID AND DONE                 
LATE WED NIGHT...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL               
ALONG AN AXIS EXTNDG FROM SE INDIANA NE THRU THE CVG/DAY/CMH                    
METROS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT AXIS ACRS                  
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA. WITHIN THE 2 TO 4 INCH AREA...SEEMS QUITE               
PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WILL APPCH 5 INCHES.                        
CONSIDERING RECENT ACTIVE WX PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY ABV NORMAL                  
PCPN COURTESY OF SVRL SIGNIFICANT STORMS AND A 12-18 INCH                       
SNOWMELT...GROUND IS BEYOND SATURATED. MANY AREA STREAMS/RIVERS                 
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR BANKFUL AND THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL                   
LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COUNTY/RIVER                
FLOODING.                                                                       
WEAK SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO OH VLY THURS PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK               
FROM PCPN. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE               
IN THE DAY AND INTO THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPCHG SFC LO.                 
THIS TIME...SFC LO WILL APPCH RAPIDLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MODEL                
CONSENSUS INDCG WARM FRONT WILL SET UP ACRS NRN FCST AREA LATE                  
THURS NIGHT AND COMBINATION OF INCREASING ISENT LIFT AND LO LVL                 
WAA WILL ENABLE PCPN TO DVLP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN WEST CNTRL OH.                
AT THIS TIME...TEMPS APPEAR COLD ENUF INITIALLY FOR PCPN TO BEGIN               
AS SNOW. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS FOR FCST AREA IN LONG              
TERM DISCUSSION.                                                                
TEMPS...FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT ON WED AS FRNTL BNDRY BISECTS                
FCST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY REACHED               
IN THE MRNG...AS LO LVL CAA DVLPS ON BACK SIDE OF FRNTL BNDRY.                  
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUID FOR HIGHS. ALSO TRENDED TOWARDS MAV              
GUID THRU REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD...AS TEMPS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY                
BELOW NORM LVLS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT WX             
SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW                  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY                
NIGHT.  AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...A            
WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT NORTH INTO THE REGION...AND WILL ESSENTIALLY              
BISECT THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A RESEMBLANCE OF BEING A             
CLIPPER IN WHICH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.                
WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY.  PCPN WILL             
FALL AS MAINLY RAIN...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE FAR                  
NORTH. SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A              
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40            
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  AS THE LOW                 
TRAVERSES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG...MOIST ASCENT             
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL            
SPREAD PCPN ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE 40 TO            
50 PERCENT RANGE.  IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE SAME AS THEY HAVE            
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...POPS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN              
HIGHER.  AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...PCPN WILL CHANGE             
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A                
COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND            
NORTH OF I-70.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE WEEK                
GOES ALONG.  THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY SATURDAY                 
MORNING.  ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END QUICKLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME             
PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH              
TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                         
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH                      
MONDAY...HAVE KEPT FORECAST AS IS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.  MODELS                  
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH UPCOMING DIGGING ENERGY IN NWLY FLOW                  
ALOFT...GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A STORM SYSTEM                
WILL AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WILL HOPE            
FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE RUNS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS FRONTAL               
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE REGION INTERACT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF                 
MOISTURE.                                                                       
A WARM FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS                
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND               
20Z. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT              
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO                 
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT                   
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...SOME                      
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RAIN. BEST                   
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR KCVG AND KLUK AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO                        
TSRA AT THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. WILL EMPLOY THE CB                
DESCRIPTOR AT KDAY AND KILN WHERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MUCH                   
SMALLER. ATTM...AM NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE KCMH AND                  
KLCK TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED             
OUT.                                                                            
FOR THE TAF PERIOD 20Z THROUGH 12Z...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL               
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WAVES OF LOW                       
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH 12Z AND               
BEYOND. THESE SURFACE LOWS...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT                 
AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL               
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE TO                 
HEAVY RAIN IN THE TAFS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.                 
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS               
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-                
     042>046-051>056-060>062.                                                   
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-            
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.                    
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059.                
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
627 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ONE LAST WARM AND DRY DAY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA UNTIL LOW                
PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT.  THAT LOW PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAKER SYSTEMS FOLLOW THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
QUIET AND MILD PREDAWN WITH A CANOPY OF MID DECK OBSCURING FULL WORM            
MOON.  SE WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AND PLACES THAT                   
RADIATED LAST EVNG ARE RISING DUE TO NOCTURNAL INV BEING BROKEN.                
MOS TEMPS ARE OFF BY TEN DEGREES AS OF 6Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.                    
NEAR TERM IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM.  COMBINATION OF A KATABATIC             
WIND AND MID LVL HGT RISES SUPPORT A PRECIP FREE FCST OUTSIDE NWRN              
AREAS.  USED NAM/ECMWF SLTN WHICH IS SLOWER EXITING SERN                        
RDG...THEREFORE KEEPING ERN 2/3 OF CWA DRY AND WARM.  CONFINED                  
LKLY/CAT POPS FM JACKSON COUNTY OHIO THRU TYLER COUNTY WITH SCHC TO             
CKB.  WEAK 305-315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD RW-- MUCH LIKE               
MONDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT INTO THE FCST GIVEN 10-20F T/TD               
SPREAD XPCTD THIS AFTN.  DUE TO POOR VERIFICATION OF GUID AT THIS               
HOUR...CONTD TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MET SAVE FOR BKW.  SE WINDS              
WILL KEEP ERN SLOPES IN THE 50S.  ADIABATIC MIXING ALLOWS WINDS GUST            
BTWN 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTN.                                                    
PCPN SHUNTS WWRD THIS EVNG AS WE AWAIT NEXT LOW RIDING UP THE MS RVR            
VLY.  PUSHED CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO INTERIOR SERN OH FOR A LTL BIT             
THEN BROUGHT THEM BACK E AS LOW APPROACHES BY DAWN.  ELEVATED                   
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD ISOLD TRW CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE.  USED               
NAM QPF WITH DOWNWARD ADJ OVER PERRY COUNTY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS THRU             
12Z WED RANGE FM 1.75 INCHES IN PERRY / MORGAN COUNTIES TAPERING                
BACK TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FM RIO GRANDE TO MARIETTA.  DO NOT                 
FORESEE MUCH DROP IN TEMPS TNGT WITH READINGS HOLDING IN THE 50S                
AREAWIDE WITH DEEPER HOLLOW PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.                      
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN OHIO.  FOR MORE                     
INFORMATION...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION NEAR THE END OF THIS PRODUCT.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                 
COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.  SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER             
LEVEL LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NE ON THE E             
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS THE                
SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED...ENOUGH SO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA SE OF THE             
OH RIVER WILL NOT HAVE THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN OH            
OVER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS.  INDEED...FRONTOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO BE             
WEAK AS THE SYSTEM OPENS UP BUT GOOD UPPER DIV...MID LEVEL CONV OF Q            
AND DEFM STILL EXIST SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT CAT POPS FOR WED.                  
SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT 3 HRS BASED ON LATEST MODEL              
DATA BUT KEPT THE END TIME ABOUT THE SAME.  ROLLED WITH HPC QPF                 
WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE NAM.  THE NAM12 HAD WHAT WAS LIKELY TOO MUCH             
DETAIL FOR THIS PROJECTION IN TIME AS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY            
TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT.  EVENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF SHARPLY                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED SPEED OF THE                  
SYSTEM.                                                                         
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE              
NECESSITATES THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.  THE TIMING OF             
THE FRONT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ROUGHLY HALF             
OF THE AREA BUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT.  SPC               
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF AREA...THE MOST             
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT                
THUSLY IN HWO.                                                                  
SFC WAVE LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED EVE AS OPEN SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT.              
THIS WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND BRING COLDER AIR IN                
ITS WAKE.  THE COLD ER AIR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW              
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS VERY LATE WED NT.                                      
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WITH SYSTEM...NOTWITHSTANDING CONVECTION...WILL            
LIKELY BE TRANSFERRED DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED EVE,             
PEAK GUSTS OFF THE RUC ALGORITHM USING THE NAM ARE JUST BELOW                   
CRITERIA FOR WIND ADVISORY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SO ONE IS NOT                  
NEEDED DUE TO THE SMALL SCALED NATURE THE EVENT.                                
A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS STREAK THROUGH IN THE FAST WNW FLOW            
ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW A SMALL HINT OF ONE AS EARLY AS THU NT.  A MORE             
ORGANIZED CLIPPER APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LITTLE              
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                                      
ROLLED WITH THE MET FOR HIGHS WED...MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BEING               
LOWER IN THE W WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL             
PASSAGE THERE.  TOOK NUMBERS UP TO THE LOWER MET FOR LOWS WED NT                
WHILE MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS THU.  RAISED LOWS A BIT S THU NT            
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO HIGHS FRI OR LOWS FRI NT.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH             
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW TRACK RIGHT                  
ACROSS WV...POSING A POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE EXTREME             
NORTH.  GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
SECTIONS OF WV BY SAT 06-12Z...SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE REST OF            
THE AREA THRU SUN 00Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW H8 FREEZING LINE JUST NORTH             
OF THE CWA AT 12Z SAT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING COLDER AIR AND              
FREEZING LINE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUN 12Z. THEREFORE...MIXED PRECIP             
OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHILE RAIN            
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS EARLY SATURDAY.             
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS                           
SATURDAY...CAUSING PRECIP TO PREVAIL AS LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE                
AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE                
MIXED PRECIP SAT AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW SAT EVENING.                            
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY ...PROVIDING A               
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ON EASTER SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS SOLUTIONS            
SPREAD FROM DAY 6-7...SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM               
AND CHANGES IN FORECAST COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR.  GUSTY S/SE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ARE THE STORY THE NEXT              
24HRS.  SUSTAIN SPEEDS WILL BE AOA 12KTS FM MID MRNG THRU THIS                  
EVNG.  THERE IS A POSSIBLITY OF -RA AT PKB AND HTS LATE MRNG INTO               
EARLY AFTN...BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE FORESEEN.  BY THE END OF            
THE FCST...MVFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RA WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR             
OF HTS AND PKB.                                                                 
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY/                                          
IFR RA PSBL WED AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.  TSTMS ARE PSBL AT ALL                  
AIRPORTS WED SAVE FOR PKB/HTS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
HOISTED FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SERN OH DUE TO THE THREAT OF                   
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  FOLLOWING THE NAM OUTPUT WHICH YIELDS ONE TO               
TWO INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA.  DEEP MSTR SURGES NORTHWARD...WHILE             
A BOUNDARY SETS UP THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND IND.  IN                            
ADDITION...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.                
EXPECT STRONG RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RIVERS             
BECOMING SWOLLEN OR POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD WED.  WE WILL BE                  
CLOSELY WATCHING THE MUSKINGUM AND HOCKING RIVERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE            
THEIR RESPECTIVE HEADWATERS GET NAILED WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF              
QPF.  IT WILL TAKE INTO THE WEEKEND OR PERHAPS LONGER BEFORE                    
SECTIONS OF THE MUSKINGUM FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE.  AT THIS                     
POINT...THE GROUND CAN WITHSTAND 1.5 - 2.0 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS                  
GREATER CAUSING HIGH WATER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084.                                  
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/29                                                               
NEAR TERM...29                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TRM                                                                
LONG TERM...TRM/ARJ                                                             
AVIATION...29                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...29                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHERN AB                
WITH TROUGH INTO CWA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD POOL ALOFT OVER MT/WY               
HEADING INTO THE CWA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI/S FROM 0 TO -2.              
18Z RUC HAD ABOUT 100 J/KG MLCAPE...SIGNS OF SPRING. POPCORN CU                 
AND ISOLATED -SHRA EVIDENT ON 1KM VISIBLE/RADAR LOOPS. EXPECT                   
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90 TO BE QUITE DIURNAL...BUT STUFF IN NORTH                 
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ZIPS INTO THE                   
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES FALL PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND THEN                 
CHANGE TO SNOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND RETURN               
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SECOND                        
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
WEDNESDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF CWA BY 00Z...CONTINUED               
POPS IN THE NORTH FOR -RASN IN THE MORNING...EXITING CWA VIA -RA                
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A TINY BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS SURFACE                 
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPS IN BEHIND WAVE. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED.                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MAIN SHORT TERM EVENT FORESEEN AS                    
BETTER ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO              
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIFT BEGINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PEAKS                    
DURING DAY THURSDAY WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES                   
WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THIS SYSTEM. NAM WARMER THAN GFS...WITH GFS                
TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GIVEN THE WINK TO              
GFS IN GENERAL. GFS SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE.                
THIS PUTS AREAS NORTH OF I-90 IN THE LIKELY POP REGIME WITH A                   
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO BE               
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SNOW DEVELOPMENT. IF DYNAMIC                  
COOLING CAN TAKE HOLD...COULD BE AN ADVISORY EVENT WHEN ALL IS                  
SAID AND DONE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS SURFACE LOW SLIPS FROM WY              
INTO NE...WHICH SHOULD DOWNSLOPE RAPID CITY LATE IN THE DAY. WENT               
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH LIKELY POPS...CLOSE TO               
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.                                                             
EXTENDED...FAST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN           
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS            
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO             
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH          
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
ACROSS THE CWA MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS TO THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR         
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL           
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING NORTHWEST       
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TO 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST           
OF THE DAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON/RUDGE                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
238 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER                
EASTERN MONTANA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER HARDING COUNTY OVER              
THE PAST FEW HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING IS INDICATING AROUND 75               
J/KG OF CAPE OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH                  
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY THE REST OF THIS                 
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES HAVE              
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40 ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD AS                
WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT ON                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BRINGING ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR                 
FLURRIES TO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING               
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND                   
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ON TUESDAY. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR ALONG              
THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM                
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO                       
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER                  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATING TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS SNOW              
IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON.                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE                
LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN WYOMING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN              
OR SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE               
EXTENDED TIME FRAME. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE            
REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN ALMOST DAILY             
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT                
WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL              
START TO COOL FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH BELOW                   
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WETENKAMP/RUDGE                                                                 
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
743 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH WITH COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH ALL OF                   
NORTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER LOW TEMPS               
A LITTLE AND TWEAKS TO SKY/POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW                
STILL BACK IN SW TEXAS WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS OVER THE              
AREA AND SQUEEZE OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE ALOFT. AREAS OF                     
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT RAINFALL RATES                     
SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AN HOUR...WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF              
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. RAIN                 
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TR.92               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ANDERSON AND HENDERSON COUNTY FOR               
AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE WE CLEAR IT. OTHERWISE...STRONG                   
PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND RUC FORECASTS SHOW 925 MB WINDS                
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND COLD                
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR SOME MIXING OF THIS WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE               
SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 4 AM.                
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TR.92                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
550 PM                                                                          
ACT SEEING ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE WORST TSTMS. DFW AREA              
ALSO HAS THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE              
IN METROPLEX FOR NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...THEN                 
TAPER OFF TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND             
SUNRISE AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD                
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WHEN DEEPER LLVL DRY AIR CAUSES THEM            
TO LIFT TO VFR.    84                                                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
530 PM                                                                          
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NEW TOR BOX FOR THE EXTREME EAST.                   
TORNADO THREAT ONLY WILL END IN A COUPLE HOURS AND WATCH WILL BE                
CANCELED WELL BEFORE THE LISTED EXPIRATION TIME.  OTHERWISE HAVE                
AMENDED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD            
OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW...AWAITING TO SEE ISALLOBARIC TRENDS             
UNFOLD WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS. TR.92                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH                  
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.                
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.              
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...              
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE                 
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO                  
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS                 
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE                 
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE              
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE                  
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL                   
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD                 
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW               
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL               
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES                    
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE              
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS              
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK                
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5                  
WACO, TX              45  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5                  
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DENTON, TX            43  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DALLAS, TX            44  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
TERRELL, TX           45  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         46  67  41  73  49 /  60   0   0   0   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  50   0   0   0   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                 
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ANDERSON AND HENDERSON COUNTY FOR               
AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE WE CLEAR IT. OTHERWISE...STRONG                   
PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND RUC FORECASTS SHOW 925 MB WINDS                
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND COLD                
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR SOME MIXING OF THIS WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE               
SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 4 AM.                
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TR.92                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
550 PM                                                                          
ACT SEEING ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE WORST TSTMS. DFW AREA              
ALSO HAS THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE              
IN METROPLEX FOR NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...THEN                 
TAPER OFF TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND             
SUNRISE AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD                
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WHEN DEEPER LLVL DRY AIR CAUSES THEM            
TO LIFT TO VFR.    84                                                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
530 PM                                                                          
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NEW TOR BOX FOR THE EXTREME EAST.                   
TORNADO THREAT ONLY WILL END IN A COUPLE HOURS AND WATCH WILL BE                
CANCELED WELL BEFORE THE LISTED EXPIRATION TIME.  OTHERWISE HAVE                
AMENDED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD            
OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW...AWAITING TO SEE ISALLOBARIC TRENDS             
UNFOLD WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS. TR.92                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH                  
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.                
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.              
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...              
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE                 
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO                  
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS                 
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE                 
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE              
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE                  
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL                   
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD                 
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW               
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL               
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES                    
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE              
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS              
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK                
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5                  
WACO, TX              46  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5                  
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DENTON, TX            45  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DALLAS, TX            49  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
TERRELL, TX           48  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         47  67  41  73  49 /  70   0   0   0   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  40   0   0   0   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                 
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
200 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.                 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE            
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTIONED OVERNIGHT AND SEND OUT A                
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 129 VALID UNTIL 9 AM FOR LOCATIONS            
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL ALSO LOWER               
OVERNIGHT POPS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.                                           
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1128 PM                                                                         
TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE SURROUNDED BY PRECIP. STORMS WEST OF SAN               
ANGELO HINTING AT FORMING A SQUALL LINE...AND IF IT FORMS IT COULD              
BE INTO TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WEAK SHOWERS ALSO FORMING IN             
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH TX...SO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO                
FILL IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. 84                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
933 PM                                                                          
ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CWA HAS DIMINISHED AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
WEAKENS WITH THE EXIT OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
HAS ALSO WEAKENED IN THE WESTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SW TEXAS. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY                     
LESSENED THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES                
INDICATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT -                  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SURFACE                  
LOW CROSSES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN               
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.                
STILL EXPECT RAIN AND STORMS TO ARRIVE AT THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER               
MIDNIGHT WITH WATCH BOXES EXPANDING EASTWARD.                                   
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ADDED WISE AND PARKER COUNTIES TO THE FLASH               
FLOOD WATCH WITH GUIDANCE SHIFTING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT                   
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE I-35               
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED THE SW COUNTIES OFF TORNADO              
WATCH 125 WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARING                      
UNLIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                                      
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
855 PM                                                                          
BACKING OFF ON THE THUNDER AND RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE TAF SITES.             
NEWEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE WEAKENING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WILL             
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. 00Z NAM JUST COMING IN BUT HINTS AT THE SAME OUTCOME.                 
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING.  84              
UPDATE...                                                                       
600 PM                                                                          
UPDATING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN THE EAST. WATCHING STORMS                  
EXPLODE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES                 
AND THESE STORMS ARE IMMERSED WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW              
LEVEL ROTATION. WARM FRONT IS IN THE PARIS VICINITY ATTM WHICH                  
WILL ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE               
METROPLEX AREA...BUT WILL NOT HESITATE TO EXPAND IT WESTWARD BASED              
ON RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THINKING IS TOR              
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                             
TR.92                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 PM                                                                          
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS. EXPECT PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH METROPLEX AIRPORTS SEEING SHOWERS WITH             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.                
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
BY LATE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE DIP INTO IFR RANGE DEPENDING ON                 
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD PASS METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT              
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY. 84                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
242 PM                                                                          
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG                  
A DRY LINE WHICH STRETCHED FROM ALTUS TO SWEETWATER TO NEAR FORT                
STOCKTON. A WARM FRONT RAN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALTUS TO                   
ARDMORE TO PARIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW                  
SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHEAST                
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THIS               
OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE.                                          
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS CAPPED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS                
OF ERODING. A 19Z SOUNDING WILL CONFIRM THIS. VERY MOIST GULF AIR               
HAS ADVECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE              
60S. SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ALLOWING                
FOR DECENT INSOLATION. RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG AND              
AMPLE SHEAR WILL FOSTER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRY LINE                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND                 
TORNADOES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR                 
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.                                        
STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT                    
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO                 
TOMORROW WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT WILL THEN                
BECOME FLASH FLOODING WITH HPC FORECASTING 24 HR QPF AMOUNTS AS                 
HIGH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE RED RIVER. MOST NORTH TEXANS CAN EXPECT              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND                  
DONE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THIS EVENING               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.                                 
RAIN PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP-                 
AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL               
PATTERNS FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME               
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE                    
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SH/13                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  65  43  66  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
WACO, TX              66  66  46  68  42 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             66  66  44  59  38 / 100 100 100  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            63  63  42  64  39 / 100 100  80   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          65  65  45  64  37 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            65  65  44  67  45 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           66  66  42  64  40 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  67  44  67  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            66  66  44  71  41 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                      
ZONES: TXZ102-117.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1128 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1128 PM                                                                         
TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE SURROUNDED BY PRECIP. STORMS WEST OF SAN               
ANGELO HINTING AT FORMING A SQUALL LINE...AND IF IT FORMS IT COULD              
BE INTO TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WEAK SHOWERS ALSO FORMING IN             
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH TX...SO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO                
FILL IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. 84                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
933 PM                                                                          
ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CWA HAS DIMINISHED AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
WEAKENS WITH THE EXIT OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
HAS ALSO WEAKENED IN THE WESTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SW TEXAS. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY                     
LESSENED THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES                
INDICATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT -                  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SURFACE                  
LOW CROSSES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN               
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.                
STILL EXPECT RAIN AND STORMS TO ARRIVE AT THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER               
MIDNIGHT WITH WATCH BOXES EXPANDING EASTWARD.                                   
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ADDED WISE AND PARKER COUNTIES TO THE FLASH               
FLOOD WATCH WITH GUIDANCE SHIFTING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT                   
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE I-35               
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED THE SW COUNTIES OFF TORNADO              
WATCH 125 WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARING                      
UNLIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                                      
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
855 PM                                                                          
BACKING OFF ON THE THUNDER AND RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE TAF SITES.             
NEWEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE WEAKENING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WILL             
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. 00Z NAM JUST COMING IN BUT HINTS AT THE SAME OUTCOME.                 
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING.  84              
UPDATE...                                                                       
600 PM                                                                          
UPDATING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN THE EAST. WATCHING STORMS                  
EXPLODE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES                 
AND THESE STORMS ARE IMMERSED WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW              
LEVEL ROTATION. WARM FRONT IS IN THE PARIS VICINITY ATTM WHICH                  
WILL ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE               
METROPLEX AREA...BUT WILL NOT HESITATE TO EXPAND IT WESTWARD BASED              
ON RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THINKING IS TOR              
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                             
TR.92                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 PM                                                                          
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS. EXPECT PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH METROPLEX AIRPORTS SEEING SHOWERS WITH             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.                
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
BY LATE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE DIP INTO IFR RANGE DEPENDING ON                 
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD PASS METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT              
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY. 84                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
242 PM                                                                          
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG                  
A DRY LINE WHICH STRETCHED FROM ALTUS TO SWEETWATER TO NEAR FORT                
STOCKTON. A WARM FRONT RAN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALTUS TO                   
ARDMORE TO PARIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW                  
SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHEAST                
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THIS               
OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE.                                          
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS CAPPED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS                
OF ERODING. A 19Z SOUNDING WILL CONFIRM THIS. VERY MOIST GULF AIR               
HAS ADVECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE              
60S. SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ALLOWING                
FOR DECENT INSOLATION. RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG AND              
AMPLE SHEAR WILL FOSTER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRY LINE                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND                 
TORNADOES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR                 
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.                                        
STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT                    
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO                 
TOMORROW WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT WILL THEN                
BECOME FLASH FLOODING WITH HPC FORECASTING 24 HR QPF AMOUNTS AS                 
HIGH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE RED RIVER. MOST NORTH TEXANS CAN EXPECT              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND                  
DONE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THIS EVENING               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.                                 
RAIN PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP-                 
AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL               
PATTERNS FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME               
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE                    
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SH/13                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  65  43  66  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
WACO, TX              66  66  46  68  42 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             66  66  44  59  38 / 100 100 100  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            63  63  42  64  39 / 100 100  80   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          65  65  45  64  37 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            65  65  44  67  45 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           66  66  42  64  40 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  67  44  67  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            66  66  44  71  41 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                      
ZONES: TXZ102-117.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
933 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CWA HAS DIMINISHED AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
WEAKENS WITH THE EXIT OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
HAS ALSO WEAKENED IN THE WESTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SW TEXAS. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY                     
LESSENED THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES                
INDICATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT -                  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SURFACE                  
LOW CROSSES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN               
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.                
STILL EXPECT RAIN AND STORMS TO ARRIVE AT THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER               
MIDNIGHT WITH WATCH BOXES EXPANDING EASTWARD.                                   
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ADDED WISE AND PARKER COUNTIES TO THE FLASH               
FLOOD WATCH WITH GUIDANCE SHIFTING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT                   
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE I-35               
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED THE SW COUNTIES OFF TORNADO              
WATCH 125 WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARING                      
UNLIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                                      
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
855 PM                                                                          
BACKING OFF ON THE THUNDER AND RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE TAF SITES.             
NEWEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE WEAKENING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WILL             
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. 00Z NAM JUST COMING IN BUT HINTS AT THE SAME OUTCOME.                 
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING.  84              
UPDATE...                                                                       
600 PM                                                                          
UPDATING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN THE EAST. WATCHING STORMS                  
EXPLODE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES                 
AND THESE STORMS ARE IMMERSED WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW              
LEVEL ROTATION. WARM FRONT IS IN THE PARIS VICINITY ATTM WHICH                  
WILL ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE               
METROPLEX AREA...BUT WILL NOT HESITATE TO EXPAND IT WESTWARD BASED              
ON RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THINKING IS TOR              
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                             
TR.92                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 PM                                                                          
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS. EXPECT PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH METROPLEX AIFPORTS SEEING SHOWERS WITH             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.                
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
BY LATE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE DIP INTO IFR RANGE DEPENDING ON                 
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD PASS METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT              
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY. 84                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
242 PM                                                                          
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG                  
A DRY LINE WHICH STRETCHED FROM ALTUS TO SWEETWATER TO NEAR FORT                
STOCKTON. A WARM FRONT RAN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALTUS TO                   
ARDMORE TO PARIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW                  
SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHEAST                
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THIS               
OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE.                                          
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS CAPPED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS                
OF ERODING. A 19Z SOUNDING WILL CONFIRM THIS. VERY MOIST GULF AIR               
HAS ADVECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE              
60S. SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ALLOWING                
FOR DECENT INSOLATION. RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG AND              
AMPLE SHEAR WILL FOSTER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRY LINE                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND                 
TORNADOES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR                 
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.                                        
STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT                    
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO                 
TOMORROW WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT WILL THEN                
BECOME FLASH FLOODING WITH HPC FORECASTING 24 HR QPF AMOUNTS AS                 
HIGH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE RED RIVER. MOST NORTH TEXANS CAN EXPECT              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND                  
DONE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THIS EVENING               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.                                 
RAIN PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP-                 
AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL               
PATTERNS FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME               
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE                    
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SH/13                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  65  43  66  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
WACO, TX              66  66  46  68  42 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             66  66  44  59  38 / 100 100 100  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            63  63  42  64  39 / 100 100  80   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          65  65  45  64  37 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            65  65  44  67  45 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           66  66  42  64  40 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  67  44  67  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            66  66  44  71  41 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                      
ZONES: TXZ102-117.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
855 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
855 PM                                                                          
BACKING OFF ON THE THUNDER AND RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE TAF SITES.             
NEWEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE WEAKENING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WILL             
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. 00Z NAM JUST COMING IN BUT HINTS AT THE SAME OUTCOME.                 
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING.  84              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
600 PM                                                                          
UPDATING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN THE EAST. WATCHING STORMS                  
EXPLODE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES                 
AND THESE STORMS ARE IMMERSED WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW              
LEVEL ROTATION. WARM FRONT IS IN THE PARIS VICINITY ATTM WHICH                  
WILL ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE               
METROPLEX AREA...BUT WILL NOT HESITATE TO EXPAND IT WESTWARD BASED              
ON RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THINKING IS TOR              
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                             
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 PM                                                                          
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS. EXPECT PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH METROPLEX AIFPORTS SEEING SHOWERS WITH             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.                
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
BY LATE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE DIP INTO IFR RANGE DEPENDING ON                 
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD PASS METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT              
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY. 84                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
242 PM                                                                          
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG                  
A DRY LINE WHICH STRETCHED FROM ALTUS TO SWEETWATER TO NEAR FORT                
STOCKTON. A WARM FRONT RAN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALTUS TO                   
ARDMORE TO PARIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW                  
SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHEAST                
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THIS               
OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE.                                          
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS CAPPED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS                
OF ERODING. A 19Z SOUNDING WILL CONFIRM THIS. VERY MOIST GULF AIR               
HAS ADVECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE              
60S. SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ALLOWING                
FOR DECENT INSOLATION. RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG AND              
AMPLE SHEAR WILL FOSTER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRY LINE                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND                 
TORNADOES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR                 
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.                                        
STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT                    
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO                 
TOMORROW WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT WILL THEN                
BECOME FLASH FLOODING WITH HPC FORECASTING 24 HR QPF AMOUNTS AS                 
HIGH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE RED RIVER. MOST NORTH TEXANS CAN EXPECT              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND                  
DONE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THIS EVENING               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.                                 
RAIN PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP-                 
AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL               
PATTERNS FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME               
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE                    
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SH/13                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  63  43  66  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
WACO, TX              63  65  46  68  42 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             63  65  44  59  38 / 100 100 100  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            57  59  42  64  39 / 100 100  80   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  64  45  64  37 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            61  65  44  67  45 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           64  65  42  64  40 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         64  65  44  67  41 / 100 100  90   5   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            63  66  44  71  41 / 100 100  80   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1123 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COMPLEX SCENARIO ATTM ACROSS THE FCST AREA. 12Z WRF-NAM AND TO A                
LESSER DEGREE THE 15Z RUC SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON                       
EVOLUTION OF SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SFC TROUGH NEAR A                    
FLUVANNA TO PADUCAH TO CHILDRESS LINE AT 16Z WITH SOUTH WINDS AND               
WARM TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND NW WINDS AND RELATIVELY                
COOL BUT FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS                   
POISED NOT TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MODELS STILL                    
INSIST IN SOME PRESSURE FALLS INDUCING BACKING FLOW ACROSS THE                  
SWRN ZONES WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THERE BY MID                        
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WINDS AT RUIDOSO...GUADALUPE PASS AND CARLSBAD              
SUGGEST THIS MAY YET OCCUR. SERN PANHANDLE HOWEVER MAY REMAIN                   
SOCKED IN BEHIND LOW CLOUDS AND A SURGE SWD OF COOLER AIR AND NLY               
WINDS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR S AND W STRATUS REMAINS                  
OVER THE SCNTL AND SWRN PANHANDLE AND EFFECT ON TEMPS THERE. HAVE               
MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST BASED UPON THESE TRENDS.                    
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TREND OF 06Z RUNS WITH A SLOWER AND                   
FURTHER NORTH HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOWS EJECTION TUESDAY. MAY                 
HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS WELL AS               
PULL POPS BACK TO THE NW. WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE FCST PACKAGE               
THIS AFTN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        56  32  55  24  68 /   0  10  10   0   0                          
TULIA         60  34  56  28  67 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     64  36  57  27  67 /  10  20  10   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     67  37  58  27  71 /  10  20  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       69  38  58  29  69 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   67  38  59  30  69 /   0  20  20   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    70  40  58  29  70 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     66  40  55  36  70 /  10  30  20  10   0                          
SPUR          75  43  59  30  70 /  10  30  20  10   0                          
ASPERMONT     79  49  55  31  71 /  10  30  30  10   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
412 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
DEEP SRN STREAM SW TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING NEWD. BACKING MID LVL FLW            
AND TIGHT LL THERMAL GRADIENT LEADING TO EXPANDING AREA OF LT-MOD               
RAIN OVR SERN HALF OF CWA W/HEAVIER FNTL RAIN BAND NOW CLIPPING SE              
CORNER OF CWA. TRIMMED FLOOD WATCH FM EARLIER UPDATE MAY NOW                    
ACTUALLY PAN OUT ALG A MARION...OTTAWA LINE SOUTH AND IN LIGHT OF               
SHRT TERM RUC SOLUTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z AS DRIVING              
MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKS SLOWLY EWD. AFT THAT...HEAVIEST RAIN              
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OH CORRESPONDING TO BEST LL MSTR                  
TRANSPORT W/ELONGATED MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE HOLDING SE HALF                  
THROUGH EARLY AFTN BFR BREAKING DOWN IN ASSOCN/W UPR TROUGH                     
ACCELERATING EWD. LL CAA MAY STILL LEAD TO A MIX OF SNOW ON TAIL END            
OF PRECIP BUT W/SKIN TEMPS REMAINING WELL ABV FREEZING                          
ACCUMULATIONS INSIGNIFICANT. MEANWHILE POST FNTL AIRMASS CONTS TO               
DRY NW AND WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE DAY W/EVENTUAL CLEARING LT              
AFTERNOON NW THROUGH EVENING SE AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE            
TO PCPN SHIELD WILL DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER FAR NW. OTHERWISE WILL              
HOLD CLOSE TO GOING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN INTERVENTION HAS              
CAUSED MORE HARM THEN GOOD LAST TWO DAYS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...WITH ONE DISTURBANCE              
POSSIBLY RESULTING IS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND             
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MON NIGHT/TUE. THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR OVERALL                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN             
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                      
THU NIGHT - SAT AM:                                                             
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE               
AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ESE ALONG IT               
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI/FRI EVE. A SHRTWV WILL EJECT INTO THE                   
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS THU NIGHT NEAR/JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL               
THEN TRACK EAST INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL IN BY EARLY FRI EVE.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE                  
FARTHER NORTH 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...NAM...AND SREF. HOWEVER...THE               
LATEST ECMWF AND GEM RUN ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY               
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS STILL OFFSHORE SO                  
EXPECT DETAILS TO BECOME CLEARER WITH BETTER SAMPLING AS SHRTWV                 
SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW BY WED EVE. TOP DOWN METHOD FROM GFS/NAM                 
SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ALL SNOW JUST                
NORTH OF THE 850H LOW TRACK AND RAIN SOUTH. AS FOR INITIAL THOUGHTS             
ON TIMING...THINK BAND OF PRECIP BREAKS OUT ACROSS E IA...N IL...AND            
S WI THU EVE AND TRACKS EAST INTO SRN MI AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN IN BY             
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP WILL                   
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THETA-E ADV WITH LL CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF               
EXPECTED 35-50KT LL JET. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM ARE REMAINING                   
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS MAINLY IN THE 850-700H               
LAYER WITH POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. EVEN IF BAND             
ASSOCIATED WITH LL FORCING ENDS UP JUST NORTH OF CWA THU NIGHT/FRI              
AM...STILL THINK CWA WILL GET INTO SOME RAIN/SNOW FRI AFTN/EVE WITH             
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER                 
MOISTURE/OMEGA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY SN                
POPS ALONG/NORTH OF ROUTE 6 06-18Z FRI AND CHC POPS FOR MIX SOUTH.              
AND CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FRI AFTN EVERYWHERE FOR RAIN AND SNOW            
NORTH...AND ALL RAIN SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RN            
IN THE EVE...WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM. KEPT WITH CHC POPS            
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS PROBABLY NEEDING TO BUMP              
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST FRI EVE. FIRST GUESS FOR                 
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS IS 2-4 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF               
ROUTE 6...AROUND AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL CWA...AND AN INCH OR LESS               
FAR SOUTH.                                                                      
SAT-TUE:                                                                        
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME VERY                 
LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY                 
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP WITH DRY FCST AS TIMING THESE QUICK              
MOVING WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT AND THAT ANY SNOW                
WILL BE BRIEF/LIGHT DUE TO THERE BEING LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO                
WORK WITH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SNOW CHCS SAT AM WITH TROUGH              
AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO HINT AT A                  
STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL WINTER             
STORM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGH IN             
PLACE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND               
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN FOR LATE MON             
NIGHT INTO TUE AS 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A                 
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR XPCD TO CONT THROUGH MID MORNING COINCIDENT                 
W/EXPANDING AREA OF LT-MOD RAIN INADV OF EJECTING DEEP SRN STREAM SW            
TROUGH. REGIONAL VWP/PROFILERS SHOWING BACKING MID LVL FLW AHD OF               
MID LVL TROUGH AND W/DECAYED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY             
FOR THE TIME BEING BTR MSTR TRANSPORT INVOF OF TIGHT MID LVL                    
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HWVR BEST COMBINATION OF MSTR FLUX CVRG AND FORCED             
ASCENT STILL SOUTH OF MOST 00Z MODEL DEPICTIONS AND TRIMMED NRN                 
PORTION OF FLOOD WATCH FURTHER TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM EXTRAPOLATION            
OF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IMPROVING CONDS LT THIS             
AFTN AS TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD AND MORE SIG LL DRYING ENSUES.                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ026-027-032>034.            
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ016-024-025.                
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                          
AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                       
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
222 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
222 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/WINDS/FIRE WEATHER                  
CONCERNS TODAY...TEDIOUS TEMPERATURE/WIND FORECAST THURSDAY...AND               
HOW MUCH TO COOL DOWN FRIDAY...AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY            
NIGHT AND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A                  
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL               
UNITED STATES. SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LOOKING LIKE IT IS BEGINNING TO              
PUSH EAST. FLOW SLOWS UP AND IS BLOCKY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.                 
AT JET LEVEL...INITIALLY MODELS DID WELL WITH JET POSITION AND                  
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE JET TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND UKMET              
WERE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT 06Z...THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE            
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE JET POSITION. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE                 
REASONABLY INTIALIZED AND SIMILAR. ALL OF THEM ARE CATCHING NORTHERN            
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
LOW BUT DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE                 
GFS DOES LOOK TO HAVE TO BE TOO MOIST.                                          
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM AND RUC WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WIND               
FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE COLD POOL TO OUR EAST             
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO OUR NORTH. MODELD DID NOT HAVE THE EASTERN            
COLD POOL FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING                  
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. WILL BE GOING WITH A                  
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WARMER...DRIER...AND                
WINDIER OUTPUT.                                                                 
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA               
THROUGH THE DAY WITH FORECAST AREA UNDER JET SUBSIDENCE. AREA LOOKS             
TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN. MAY HAVE AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD UP AGAIN                
BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SNOW FIELD WAS A NON                 
ISSUE YESTERDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST                
BEING TOO COOL. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE MAV/GFS LATELY.                  
USING THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...DIURNAL RANGE...AND               
BIASES FROM THE 2 METER AND 850 MB...YIELDED TEMPERATURES IN THE                
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                
BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR              
MASS...AND SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO               
BE BREEZY AGAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS IS LOW DEWPOINTS                     
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS NEAR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND                   
UPSTREAM RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND THIS IS IN THE              
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS WILL              
HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK ONCE MIXING OCCURS. MOST MODEL OUTPUT IS WAY             
TOO HIGH ON MOISTURE. USED THE NGM AS A FIRST GUESS SINCE IT WAS                
THE LOWEST...AND THEN MODIFIED. WIND WIND WILL BE THE WILD CARD AND             
WILL BE CLOSE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WARNING.                                     
WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF.              
THERE IS A TENDENCY TOWARD UPSLOPE BUT SINCE SPEEDS ARE NOT THAT                
HIGH...DO NOT BUY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...              
BELIEVE THAT LOWS COULD DROP WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. TRENDED MINS...               
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...TO THAT DIRECTION.                                     
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE JET             
POSITION THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT                     
DIFFERENCE BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE FURTHER                 
NORTH WITH THE AXIS. THE NAM BRINGS IN A BETTER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT             
IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS US IN MUCH LESS LIFT.               
THE GFS AGAIN IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT BRING            
THE AXIS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS BRING THE            
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACROSS THE FORECAST IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME                  
FRAME.                                                                          
MAIN SYSTEM AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SWING A                 
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THEN               
SUBSIDENCE AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT QUICKLY MOVE IN                  
AFTER 06Z. SO WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS WILL BE DONE BY 06Z.                 
POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY.                     
CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECEDE              
UPPER LIFT...WOULD AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT. SINCE SYSTEM WILL GO             
QUICKLY THROUGH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE                     
MOISTURE TO SATURATE DOWN. THE TENDENCY WITH THESE FAST WEST TO                 
NORTHWEST SHORTWAVES HAS BEEN TO OVERPRODUCE PRECIPITATION. AM                  
LEANING TOWARD JUST HAVING EVENING SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME.                      
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW              
FAST WEAK BOUNDARY/EASTERLY WINDS MIX OUT AND PUSH TO THE EAST.                 
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED...THINK THAT THE                  
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS INCREASE AND FRONT            
APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. USING DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE METHODS                
POINTED TO TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 OVER MOST OF            
THE AREA. IF HAVE LESS CLOUDS AND SLOWER FRONT...WILL BE MUCH                   
WARMER.                                                                         
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ALSO BRING UP THE WINDS TO NEAR OR                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 KNOTS. NOT THE RIGHT TIME OF DAY YOU WOULD EXPECT             
TO GET STRONG WINDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND                
MAY BE POSSIBLE AND CONSIDERING A FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE UPPER                  
SYSTEM TO BRING IN STRONGER WINDS...THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. WILL             
INCREASE WINDS FOR THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINS MILD.                         
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET IS FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...NAM AND              
GFS DEVELOP A SECONDARY AXIS THAT PUTS THE AREA...MOSTLY THE                    
NORTHEAST HALF...IN SOME LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE               
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN...SPRING SUN...WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT               
TO THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL IN THIS SETUP THIS MONTH AND            
WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO PROBABLY KEEP             
THE WINDS UP CONSIDERING THAT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE.              
AREA STAYS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET THROUGH THE NIGHT               
AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. POINT                 
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW MEASURABLE              
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT RAISE THE                  
SILENT POPS.                                                                    
SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER DURING THE DAY. THE               
LAPSE RATES ARE THE BEST IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. FORECAST HAS                    
PRECIPITATION IN THERE AND WILL ONLY TWEEK IF NECESSARY. COOLER                 
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY LOOK FINE AT THIS TIME.                               
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION...IT WAS MUCH APPRECIATED.                      
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1120 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE                
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. AT KMCK...WINDS ARE NOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
REMAIN CALM UNTIL ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z. AT KGLD WINDS ARE NOW FROM THE              
WEST AT 8 KTS. FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 23Z...                
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 KT RANGE               
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE. AFTER 23Z...NORTHWESTERLY AND               
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CALM TO THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN            
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY                    
TOMORROW. BY 00Z...BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.             
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS STARTING TO SHOW             
SOME CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THANKS TO A BIT STRONGER ZONAL PACIFIC               
JET PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. STILL...SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS              
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF NORTH AMERICA. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER             
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NE MANITOBA...INTO NW ONTARIO AND SW INTO SRN             
MN...WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF IT IN SE CANADA. IN THE SOUTHERN                     
STREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER OK AND EAST TEXAS...WITH               
STRONG RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SE U.S.. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET            
STILL EXISTS AHEAD OF SRN PLAINS TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE ON WATER                
VAPOR STREAMING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS                
UPPER MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING                  
ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD                    
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 200-300 PCT OF NORMAL) IS CONTRIBUTING            
TO THE ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MO/AR.            
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE CWA BEING NORTH OF THE                  
SUBTROPICAL JET AND WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING. HOWEVER...AFTER                   
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AS                     
EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WI INTO UPPER MI PER                 
11-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL DEPICT THIS MOISTURE BY SATURATION BETWEEN 900-850MB (ALSO THE              
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION). WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE              
SOUNDINGS BELOW 900MB AND THE GENERAL THIN LAYER OF SATURATION...               
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS OCCURRING. SKIES HAVE NOW CLEARED             
ACROSS MUCH OF MN...THANKS TO DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS            
FROM BIS AND ABR. UPSTREAM TO OUR NW...AIRMASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD             
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. 850MB TEMPS FALL                
BELOW -10C IN NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH READINGS OF -11C AT THE PAS              
AND -17C AT CHURCHILL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PCPN THROUGH SAT.                   
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER MN IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD                  
ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY AND ALMOST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z. ALSO            
TO NOTE IS A SHRTWV ON THE NRN END OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN             
MANITOBA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY              
00Z. ALTHOUGH DPVA WILL OCCUR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN...THE             
LACK OF ANY MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS (AS NOTED FROM INL...MPX AND             
GRB RAOBS) MEANS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM IT. THE MAIN ITEM                    
EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH IS TO ALLOW THE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHERN               
MANITOBA TO FILTER INTO THE CWA. BY 21Z...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED               
BTWN -9 AND -12C. BEFORE THIS COOLING ARRIVES...SKIES SHOULD MAKE AN            
ATTEMPT AT CLEARING THIS MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR OVER MN AND NW WI             
MOVES IN. CLOUDS WILL THEN REDEVELOP EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR                
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING               
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN             
RELATIVELY HIGH (WHICH ARE ALSO AIDED BY MOISTENING OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR). SOME DIURNAL -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TOO OUT OF THESE                     
CLOUDS...PRIMARILY IN THE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AREAS. SOME LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS SOLAR                 
HEATING DIMINISHES AND THE COLDER AIR AROUND -12C MOVES IN.                     
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LITTLE DUE TO LOW INVERSIONS...SMALL CLOUD               
DEPTHS AND THE STRONGER MARCH SUN MELTING SNOW. BECAUSE OF MORE                 
SOLAR HEATING...AND THE BETTER MIXING WITH COLD ADVECTION...TEMPS               
TODAY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS. WARMEST TEMPS...               
NEAR 40...EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AREA IN THE SOUTH                 
CENTRAL U.P..                                                                   
TONIGHT...SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ERN TEXAS LIFTING NE TODAY IS SHOWN            
TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD...OVER THE               
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS PHASING OCCURS...EVEN COLDER AIR IS                
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH HELP FROM THE SHRTWV NEAR               
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z CROSSING NEAR ANJ AROUND 06Z. 850MB TEMPS ARE              
PROGGED TO DROP TO -12 TO -14C...AND WITH WIND FLOW FROM THE NNW                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE                 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P.. STILL...INVERSIONS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO               
REACH AT 5000 FT...SO CANNOT IMAGINE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET GOING TOO             
STRONG. HOWEVER...ONE BIG POSITIVE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION IS THAT MUCH             
OF THE CLOUD DECK IS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO SNOW TO              
WATER RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...30 TO 1 OR HIGHER.                      
THEREFORE...IF ANY BAND CAN SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS...AS OUR LOCAL               
WRF-ARW RUN DEPICTS IN LUCE COUNTY...A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE NOT OUT             
OF THE QUESTION. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT THIS MORE. LOW TEMPS             
WILL CERTAINLY BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS THANKS TO THE                
COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN. INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. COULD                
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH              
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
THURSDAY...PHASING TROUGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WHICH              
ALLOWS A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA (CURRENTLY IN NW                   
MANITOBA). DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -8 TO -10C BY 21Z...WILL              
LIKELY DISRUPT THE LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SUCH AS IRON               
COUNTY MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU. VERY LITTLE             
CONCERN FOR PCPN COMING OUT OF THIS STRATOCU COMPARED TO TODAY DUE              
TO EVEN LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS            
MOVING IN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPRING/SUMMER-TIME LOOK            
OF CLEARING OVER THE LAKE AND LAND AREAS NEAR THE SHORE THANKS TO               
LAKE BREEZES...AND MORE CLOUDS INLAND. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WARM                
THROUGH THE DAY...THE COLDER START OFF COMPARED TO TODAY SHOULD                 
RESULT IN COLDER HIGHS...PROBABLY BY A FEW DEGREES AT LEAST. WARMEST            
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NW WINDS                   
CONTINUE TO DOWNSLOPE.                                                          
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN                     
EXPERIENCING ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO A SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM ORIGINATES FROM THE               
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW. THE QUESTION IS AS THIS              
SHRTWV COMES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS (PRIMARILY KS/NE/IA/MO                 
AREA)...WILL IT BE A FLATTER OR HAVE MORE AMPLITUDE. THE 19/00Z AND             
18/12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE THE FLATTEST OF THE BUNCH...WHICH ALLOWS THE              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THU TO REMAIN IN PLACE               
THRU FRI. THE UKMET IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED...AND IF IT WERE TO PAN               
OUT...POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED ALONG THE WI BORDER FRI. HAVE            
FOLLOWED HPC PREFERENCE...WHICH IS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS OF THE              
GFS/NAM. THESE SOLUTIONS RESULT IN BRINGING MORE CLOUD COVER INTO               
THE CWA THU NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                      
THUS...HAVE BOOSTED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY              
EXIT THE CWA ON FRI AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.             
GIVEN THE MORE CLOUD COVER ON FRI...ENDED UP KNOCKING DOWN HIGHS A              
FEW DEGREES...WHICH PROBABLY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TOO BECAUSE OF            
NE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BRINGING COOL AIR DOWN OUT OF            
ONTARIO. ONLY OTHER ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD IS LAKE EFFECT.                    
FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NAM/GFS 900/925MB RH FIELDS WHICH            
TAKE DISSIPATING CLOUDS BANDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WESTWARD AS WINDS            
SWITCH TO THE NE. ANY WEAK SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE             
DURING THE DAY FRI AS DRY AIR AND HEATING HELP MIX THEM OUT.                    
FRI NIGHT AND SAT....AS THE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXITS OFF TO             
THE EAST FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING              
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO            
REINFORCE NE WINDS OVER THE CWA. THE QUESTION DURING THIS                       
PERIOD...WHICH AFFECTS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA...IS WHETHER             
OR NOT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CAN REFORM...AS INDICATED BY 925MB RH                 
FIELDS OFF THE NAM/GFS. THE GFS/NAM 925MB TEMPS ARE AROUND                      
-10C...WHICH IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE.             
HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BE TOO DRY TO                 
ALLOW FOR CLOUD GROWTH. FOR NOW...TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD                     
APPROACH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAISING TEMPS UP OVER THE WEST            
HALF OF UPPER MI. IF THE NAM/GFS ARE CORRECT...SOME FLURRIES WOULD              
HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED TOO...PARTICULARLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. ON                   
SAT...A FEW SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PREVENT ANY PCPN HERE. ANY            
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE WITH HEATING. LOWERED                 
HIGHS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW.                           
BEYOND SAT...NO CHANGES MADE. HOWEVER...THE 18/12Z AND 19/00Z ECMWF             
ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF BOUT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPPING THE CWA SUN NIGHT            
AND MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -16 TO -18C BY 00Z TUE. IF THESE ARE               
CORRECT...HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. DRY AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES                
THIS COLD AIR...THEREFORE ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE WEAK. AWAY FROM             
THE CWA...IF THESE ECMWF RUNS ARE CORRECT...THERE COULD BE A LATE               
SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
APPEARS NARROW BAND OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE                  
KEWEENAW ATTM. SO...HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR             
VIS IN -FZDZSN THRU ABOUT 07Z AT KCMX. THIS IS INLINE WITH A FEW OBS            
THAT REPORTED -DZ/FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN NE MN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.              
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR              
AND WILL MAKE INROADS INTO UPPER MI FROM THE NW DURING THE                      
OVERNIGHT. SINCE IT`S NOT A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR...ANTICIPATE               
CIGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR THE BULK OF THE FCST PERIOD AT             
KCMX. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN MAY DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS AIRMASS              
BECOMES COLDER.                                                                 
AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THRU THE NIGHT INTO THE AFTN.            
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WHERE CLOUDS              
SCT OUT AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS WORK TO BREAK UP CLOUD            
DECK. IF CLOUDS DO SCT OUT...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN                   
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS MID/LATE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO              
VFR IN THE AFTN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES FORESEEN ANYTIME SOON. WINDS DO GET UP TO 30 KNOTS TODAY               
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BECAUSE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE             
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HERE AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH COLD AIR TONIGHT AND STRONGER WINDS OVER              
THE EASTERN CWA...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR               
     LSZ264-266-267.                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...GJM                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 1057 PM EDT)                                              
UPDATED FCST TO DROP MENTION OF ISOLD -SHSN/FZDZ LATE TONIGHT INTO              
THE EARLY MORNING FOR WRN UPPER MI AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING               
INTO THE AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BEFORE THEN...THERE STILL                  
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ/FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL            
HOURS AS NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS OVER EXTREME NE MN            
MOVES E AND UPSLOPES INTO WRN UPPER MI ON W TO NW WINDS. IN                     
ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS IN NE MN EARLIER THIS EVENING              
THAT INDICATED -DZ/-SN...AND KDLH RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME WEAK RETURNS.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT)                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH TROFFING DOMINATING THE UP GRT LKS.                    
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE              
SN THAT FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOW HEADING ENEWD THRU ERN UPR               
MI. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER               
AIR ALF (IN THE LYR COLDER THAN -10C) THAT WAS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX             
SNDG. BUT PLENTY OF LO CLD REMAINS WITH AMPLE LLVL MSTR LINGERING.              
THE HIER LLVL DWPTS (GENERALLY 30 TO 35) AND IFR/MVFR CIGS EXTEND               
WWD THRU MOST OF MN TO NEAR REINFORCING COLD FNT NOW MOVING INTO NW             
MN. SOME LGT PCPN HAS BEEN OBSVD ALG AND JUST AHD OF THIS BNDRY. BUT            
DRIER AIR IS NOTED MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FNT. THE CORE OF THE               
COLDER AIR IS LOCATED A BIT FARTHER N...WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AT YQD                
DOWN TO -11C...VS -5C OBSVD AT INL.                                             
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND WED)...                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT/TMRW ARE LGT PCPN CHCS/TYPE.                            
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS COLD FNT NOW MOVING THRU MN WL MOVE INTO               
THE WRN ZNS ARND 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR NOTED AHEAD OF THIS               
BNDRY...MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER INTO THE OVERNGT AS WELL            
AS SOME PTCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN ACRS MAINLY THE WRN ZNS WHERE LGT WLY               
FLOW WL UPSLOPE. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR SIMILAR PCPN              
TYPE OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP LATE TNGT WITH BETTER                
LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BNDRY. BUT INFLUX OF             
DRIER AIR LATE TNGT WL AT LEAST END THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ OVER THE            
W AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN THE DOWNSLOPE               
AREAS. IN ANY EVENT...LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH AND MODEST CHILL (TEMPS            
WITHIN THE MOIST LYR FCST TO BE HIER THAN -10C) WL LIMIT PCPN COVG              
AND INTENSITY. TENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN            
TEMPS FCST...WITH THE LOWER READINGS OVER THE W WITH MORE VIGOROUS              
LLVL DRYING LATE.                                                               
ON WED...AN INCRSG N TO NW FLOW WL ADVECT COLDER AIR NOW OVER SCNTRL            
CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. DURING MID WINTER...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER            
LES HEADLINES...BUT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DURING THE                  
DIURNAL HTG TIME AS WELL AS ACYC NATURE OF LARGER SCALE FLOW WL                 
LIMIT LES BAND DVLPMNT/COVG/INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH FCST SHARP INVRN                
ARND H85 OR SO WL RESULT IN INCRSG SC DVLPMNT WITH THE DIURNAL                  
HTG... THIS LO INVRN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY INSTABILTY              
SHSN THAT MIGHT OTRW DVLP WELL INLAND WITH SFC HTG/INFLUX OF LLVL               
MSTR OFF THE LK. MIXING TO H85-825 ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS            
ARND 40 OVER THE SCNTRL...WHICH WL BE WARMEST WITH DOWNSLOPING NNW              
FLOW.                                                                           
LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                  
TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY GETS                 
REPLACED BY FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. AS TROUGH RUNS INTO STRONG RIDGE OVR            
NORTH ATLANTIC/GREENLAND EXPECT IT TO STALL THIS WEEKEND WHEN IT                
REACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA. USUALLY THIS PATTERN               
RESULTS IN A COLDER PATTERN FOR GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC AND THIS               
TIME IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THE LEAST...EXPECT BLO NORMAL TEMPS                    
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS TOWARD -12C COULD END UP             
WITH LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AT LEAST             
WEAK OVER WATER INSTABILITY...WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS              
INTO FRIDAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SOME                  
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT              
FM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
EVENTUALLY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER OVR MUCH OF WESTERN HALF OF             
THE CONUS WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF                   
WESTERN CONUS TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS ON                  
FRIDAY. ATTM...TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH KEEPS SNOW TO THE SOUTH            
OF CWA. YET...SINCE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVR CANADA HAS NOT ARRIVED              
BY THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR TRACK OF THE LOW TO               
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DPROG/DT OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASING               
NORTHERLY TREND TO NORTH EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD STREAKING ACROSS WI/IL.            
ON LATEST MODELS...THIS IS NOW INTO CNTRL WI. WILL KEEP DRY FCST FOR            
FRI ALONG WI BORDER...BUT SNOW MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER                 
FORECASTS IF SIMILAR TREND CONTINUES.                                           
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA TRIES TO               
MAKE A RUN INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SFC               
HIGH/DRY AMBIENT AIR SHOULD KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM...INCLUDED A                 
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH               
TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH. GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT SHOWING STORM IN            
NORTHERN STREAM SHIFTING ACROSS NEXT TUE. 12Z ECMWF...OTHER                     
GUIDANCE...AND THE HPC PREFERENCE...IS TO KEEP STORM TRACK FARTHER              
SOUTH SO CARRIED A DRY FCST MON/TUE. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE              
OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
APPEARS NARROW BAND OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE                  
KEWEENAW ATTM. SO...HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR             
VIS IN -FZDZSN THRU ABOUT 07Z AT KCMX. THIS IS INLINE WITH A FEW OBS            
THAT REPORTED -DZ/FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN NE MN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.              
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR              
AND WILL MAKE INROADS INTO UPPER MI FROM THE NW DURING THE                      
OVERNIGHT. SINCE IT`S NOT A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR...ANTICIPATE               
CIGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR THE BULK OF THE FCST PERIOD AT             
KCMX. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN MAY DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS AIRMASS              
BECOMES COLDER.                                                                 
AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THRU THE NIGHT INTO THE AFTN.            
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WHERE CLOUDS              
SCT OUT AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS WORK TO BREAK UP CLOUD            
DECK. IF CLOUDS DO SCT OUT...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN                   
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS MID/LATE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO              
VFR IN THE AFTN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO JAMES BAY ON             
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.            
THIS HIGH WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY              
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY REACH 30 KNOTS ON                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF              
THE BUILDING RIDGE...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...JLA                                                      
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
435 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WAS                
NEARING THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 330 AM AND STRONGEST FROM HIGHWAY 82               
AND SOUTHWARD. OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN DURING THE            
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE MS/AL               
STATE LINE BY 7 AM ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR             
OUR AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER               
LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE LOW             
OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY WHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS             
UP AND SHIFTS EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING THE EXPECTED            
DRY SLOTTING WRAPPING UP AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER                      
LOW...OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING             
A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK OVER WESTERN               
LOUISIANA SO WL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT.               
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND             
EAST OF OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR            
EAST...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WON`T SHIFT             
EAST UNTIL TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH               
LOCAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING            
OVER OUR DELTA REGION. WL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE              
LATER. THUS WL ALLOW THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE               
AREA TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OR CWFA FROM              
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWFA                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL                  
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
ARE DRIER IN THE LONG TERM BUT MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA               
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE            
SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SLIDE EAST                
INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO               
THE SOUTH BUT REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE MUCH               
BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWFA SATURDAY. THE COLD               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING. HIGH            
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE                
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST AND ALLOWING A              
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE                
AREA STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF              
BUT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPEN A TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING            
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO SUNDAY            
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS              
FEATURE. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE               
LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH RESULTING IN PATCHY FROST. IF THE GFS TRENDS             
TOWARD THE ECMWF EVEN COLDER MORNING LOWS COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY              
MORNING. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION MONDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING            
TREND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA. OUTSIDE              
OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.            
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A              
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL             
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT.                  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TODAY BUT THE LOW CLOUDS            
WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE NORTH UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS                
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       63  41  70  42 /  37   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      67  42  69  38 /  61   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     62  41  69  42 /  24   0   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   67  43  72  39 /  52   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       63  43  68  41 /  14   0   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    61  40  68  45 /  41   0   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     62  39  68  43 /  50   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-             
     025>066-072>074.                                                           
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-             
     015-016-023>026.                                                           
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1240 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING WILL                 
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER                    
FLOODING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BEYOND.                                  
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS A BIT INTO TEXAS.                    
ELONGATED UPPER JET ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS THROUGH                    
EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE                
REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN THE LOWER                
LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO                
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT                     
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOOT HEEL OF MO TO NEAR LITTLE               
ROCK AND TEXARKANA. A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RIDE                          
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER                    
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.                                                             
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS...FRONTOGENESIS IN BOTH               
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE              
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LOW               
WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE TEXAS...LIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST                  
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT DOES                
SO...JOINING THE NORTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL                   
RESULT IN A SLOW END TO OUR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EASTWARD                
PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE THIS RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO                  
NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WAITING UNTIL THE                      
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW                    
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEP                
CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NEARLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAINFALL                   
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE GOING FORECAST OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT                   
LOOKS GOOD...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE                
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.                                                    
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                 
AFTERNOON. THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO                   
FAR...WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE UP                
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY                 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY MAKE FLOODING MATTERS WORSE.                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS                      
NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA             
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL               
JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.               
MOISTURE IS RIDING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST                        
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...INTO MOST OF THE CWA. UPPER LOW                   
STILL DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SO THE MOISTURE TRAIN WILL                  
STAY IN TACT OVER NIGHT. SERIOUS MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING IS IN                 
THE PROCESS OF COMING TO FRUITION.                                              
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2.5                   
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. HPC QPF GUIDANCE              
SHOWING ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR COMMUNITIES SOUTH AND EAST              
OF INTERSTATE 44 FOR TONIGHT. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE                
ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. FLASH              
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT AREAS TO REFLECT THESE PRECIP AMOUNTS.                                
UPPER LOW OPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO                 
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                         
CLAYCOMB                                                                        
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
IN THE LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCES WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THIS FLOW...EACH HAVING              
AT LEAST A MINOR EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.                                
THE NICEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY AS LOW                   
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ISSUES A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INTO               
THE AREA BRIEFLY. THIS LOW WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH...LARGELY              
AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI AND PERHAPS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT             
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE DRY BUT            
WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO CREATE A              
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
THIS SYSTEM WITH MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER               
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS              
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID             
LEVEL LIFT AND THE JET PATTERN PRESENT...THIS BECOMES BELIEVABLE.               
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A QUESTION OF JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE              
WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                                              
IT APPEARS THAT THE GULF WILL OPEN UP BY LATE MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY               
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE                
BROUGHT NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A WELL              
DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA. THE GFS ON THE             
OTHER HAND...HAS A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HAVE CHANCE               
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE MENTION            
OF THUNDER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT                
COLD AIR BROUGHT IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW DOES NOT APPEAR                      
LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL            
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL INTO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                          
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12               
HOURS IS THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA               
OF RAINFALL THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY               
TOWARD THE SGF AERODROME. CIGS/VIS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AT BOTH JLN               
AND SGF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...REALLY HUGGING MVFR/IFR AT SGF.               
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL COMING ACROSS THE SGF AERODROME...                
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTIONING IFR CIGS. VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY              
FROM MVFR TO VFR BASED ON RAINFALL INTENSITY. AT JLN...CIGS HAVE                
RISEN TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE                
OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING VIS/CIG IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING                
HOURS WITH CLEARING BY MIDDAY.                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-              
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.                                           
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1135 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1135 PM                                                                         
EXPECT A FEW HOURS MORE OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS...THEN BEFORE                 
SUNRISE CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES ON EAST. REST            
OF PERIOD WILL BE VFR.   84                                                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
743 PM                                                                          
CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH WITH COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH ALL OF                   
NORTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER LOW TEMPS               
A LITTLE AND TWEAKS TO SKY/POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW                
STILL BACK IN SW TEXAS WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS OVER THE              
AREA AND SQUEEZE OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE ALOFT. AREAS OF                     
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT RAINFALL RATES                     
SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AN HOUR...WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF              
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. RAIN                 
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TR.92               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ANDERSON AND HENDERSON COUNTY FOR               
AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE WE CLEAR IT. OTHERWISE...STRONG                   
PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND RUC FORECASTS SHOW 925 MB WINDS                
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND COLD                
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR SOME MIXING OF THIS WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE               
SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 4 AM.                
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TR.92                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
550 PM                                                                          
ACT SEEING ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE WORST TSTMS. DFW AREA              
ALSO HAS THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE              
IN METROPLEX FOR NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...THEN                 
TAPER OFF TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND             
SUNRISE AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD                
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WHEN DEEPER LLVL DRY AIR CAUSES THEM            
TO LIFT TO VFR.    84                                                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
530 PM                                                                          
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NEW TOR BOX FOR THE EXTREME EAST.                   
TORNADO THREAT ONLY WILL END IN A COUPLE HOURS AND WATCH WILL BE                
CANCELED WELL BEFORE THE LISTED EXPIRATION TIME.  OTHERWISE HAVE                
AMENDED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD            
OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW...AWAITING TO SEE ISALLOBARIC TRENDS             
UNFOLD WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS. TR.92                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH                  
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.                
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.              
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...              
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE                 
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO                  
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS                 
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE                 
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE              
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE                  
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL                   
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD                 
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.                                                        
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW               
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL               
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES                    
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE              
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS              
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK                
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5                  
WACO, TX              45  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5                  
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DENTON, TX            43  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5                  
DALLAS, TX            44  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5                  
TERRELL, TX           45  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         46  67  41  73  49 /  60   0   0   0   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  50   0   0   0   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES:                                                                          
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                 
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
437 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINOR            
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND INTO THE                  
NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATING GENERALLY CLEAR             
SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOME HIGH                
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND A FEW WAVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING               
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.                                                         
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATING INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST              
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO               
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE SYSTEM STAYING FURTHER NORTH...MODELS               
INDICATING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND                 
HAVE CUT BACK POPS CONFINING SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE HIGHEST WEST                 
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE                     
SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN ACROSS THE              
AREA...OWNING TO HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ONCE               
AGAIN. WESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A                 
STRONGER SHORT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST CONTINUES INTO               
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE I-25             
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND WITH WAA AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SHOULD             
SEE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN            
SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS.  -MW                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
...A WEAK SYSTEM THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE                 
WEEKEND...                                                                      
.THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.                  
MAIN IMPACT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL                            
MOUNTAINS...AND THE BEST MOISTURE...LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY            
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GRIDS HAVE GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES FOR                 
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHER                 
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE                    
PLAINS. SPC FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION HAS A CRITICAL AREA EXTENDING               
INTO BACA COUNTY. NAM SURFACE FIELDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR RED                 
FLAG CONDITIONS IN BACA COUNTY. ON MONDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS               
MOVED THROUGH BACA COUNTY WITH KSPD HAVING NEARLY AN INCH OF                    
RAIN...AND FUELS MAY NOT BE CRITICAL. GIVEN THE SMALL AREA AND                  
RECENT RAINS IN THIS REGION...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER                   
WATCH AT THIS TIME. WITH +4C AT 700MB AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT              
A MILD DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.                          
.FRIDAY...BEHIND THE TROUGH...A WEAK UPSLOPE SURGE WILL DEVELOP                 
OVER THE PLAINS. AIR ALOFT COOLS MODESTLY...AND WITH THE STRONGER               
MID MARCH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE                   
NORMAL OVER THE REGION. WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO                 
THE STATE...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE                     
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.                        
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION                
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFF THE COAST AND IT IS                
TOUGH TO GET VERY SPECIFIC ABOUT THE SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE BEEN                   
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH. 00Z EC AND 06Z GFS SUGGEST                   
SATURDAY COULD BE A CHILLY DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL                 
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. DECIDED TO ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE               
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GRIDS STILL FOLLOW MEX NUMBERS CLOSELY. DEPENDING           
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...MAXIMUMS ON SATURDAY OR                  
SUNDAY COULD BE COOLER THAN IN THE GRIDS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EC              
AND GFS SUGGEST A LEE TROUGH TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH WARMER AIR                  
MOVING INTO THE REGION. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...DAYSHIFT MAY                 
HAVE TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE WEEKEND GRIDS. IN THE CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY FAST AND MID LEVEL                
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE BELOW ADVISORY              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POLICY IS NOT TO CHANGE DAYS 6 AND 7 ON                   
MIDSHIFT...UNLESS CHANGE IS SUBSTANTIAL. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF               
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. CURRENT                 
GRIDS HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL. --PGW--                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS AND TAF SITES              
TODAY AND TONIGHT. -MW                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/06                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1023 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                              
MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY MATHCES UP THE BEST EDGE OF THE              
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER OH VALLEY REGION WITH THE MAIN               
UPPER 500 MB TROUGH. THIS ALSO SEEN IN THE PROFILER DATA AS THE                 
TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST. RUC MODEL SHOWS THE PROG              
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...FINALLY                  
BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CONTINUED               
MODERATE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...CONTINUED THE                
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR              
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO                
THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING THEM DUE TO                 
THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING OF THE                  
CLOUDS A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                           
GOETSCH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                               
PIA...BMI AND SPI WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH WINDS               
OUT OF THE N TO NW. MODEL INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS                        
SCATTERING OUT AROUND THE SAME TIME LEAVING ONLY SOME CIRRUS                    
AROUND INTO THE NIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL CIGS OF AROUND                
15KFT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. DEC AND              
CMI WILL SEE IFR CIGS AS THEY REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE                
PCPN. THEREFORE WILL ALSO HAVE VCSH AT BOTH SITES THIS MORNING FOR              
A FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING AND                 
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AROUND               
23-00Z...LEAVING CIRRUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THEN DEC AND CMI                 
WILL SEE INFLOW OF MID LVL CLOUDS TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING.                      
AUTEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                              
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL               
TOTALS CONTINUING TO MOUNT UP. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REPORTS                   
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FAR 5.95 INCHES 4 SE OF CLAY CITY               
HAS BEEN THE WINNER... AND THAT WAS AS OF 1030 PM.                              
RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HAVE BEEN RESPONDING OVERNIGHT... BUT               
IN MANY CASES ARE QUITE SURPRISINGLY RUNNING BELOW RFC FORECASTS.               
NOTE THE LEVELING OFF IN THE HYDROGRAPH AT CLAI2 AND LAWI2. WITH                
THE SATURATED GROUND...EXPECT PRETTY MUCH ANY RAINFALL WE GET OVER              
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WILL BE PURE RUN OFF... AND SUSPECT THAT                    
RIVERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BEGIN A STEADY CLIMB AGAIN                  
LATER TODAY. WITH THE MAINSTEM WABASH ALREADY IN FLOOD...RIVER                  
STAGES AT THE NORMALLY FLASHIER RIVERS SUCH AS THE LITTLE WABASH                
MAY NIGHT DROP OFF AS QUICKLY AS THEY TYPICALLY DO.                             
DECIDED TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z...ALTHOUGH MAIN AREAS OF              
CONCERN ARE ALREADY UNDER FLASH FLOOD AND/OR AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS               
AT THIS TIME. REPORTS OF WATER ISSUES ARE ESPECIALLY HARD TO COME               
BY AT NIGHT... ESPECIALLY FLOODED ROADWAYS IN RURAL AREAS... AND I              
AM WILLING TO HAZARD A GUESS THAT WE WILL RECEIVE SEVERAL MORE                  
REPORTS OF PROBLEMS AS PEOPLE BEGIN WAKING UP AND TRAVELING THE                 
ROADS... EVEN IN AREAS NORTH OF I-70.                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY SLOT TRYING TO SNEAK INTO                     
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER              
TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO OUR EAST TODAY... KEEPING ANY                 
DRY SLOTTING OFF TO OUR SE... AND MORE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE BAND               
HANGING BACK ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.                
ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW FREEZING LATER TODAY... SFC AND                
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN WARM AND QUITE SATURATED. WITHOUT ANY STRONG                
SFC CAA EXPECTED... DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY ISSUES WITH                 
PRECIP CHANGE OVER... AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE FORECAST ALL                  
WET... WITH NO WHITE.                                                           
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AS               
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND ILL DEFINED. MODELS COMING INTO                  
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRANSITORY WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE QUASI-                  
ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. INCREASING                 
LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION              
MAINLY NORTH OF I-74 THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED TEMPERATURES                     
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-70 AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL                
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON              
HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR... WE COULD SEE                  
SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD                     
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NOTE 06Z NAM CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND WITH THU/FRI SYSTEM. AS                
MENTIONED THE PAST FEW SHIFTS... SOUTH EDGE OF PRECIP AREA WILL BE              
SHARPLY DEFINED. FOR NOW... CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE                 
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS... WHICH SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL AFFECT MAINLY                 
OUR NORTHERN 1/3RD THURSDAY NIGHT... WHEREAS THE 06Z NAM KEEPS ALL              
THE PRECIP NORTH OF I-80. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY TRENDS HOWEVER.            
LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                                
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE                
WEEKEND... WITH THE ONLY PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE CONTINENT                
BEING A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND              
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF                
THE AREA BY SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE                
AREA SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH                 
OUR AREA... BUT COULD BECOME A PRETTY DECENT STORM FOR THE EAST                 
COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ044>046-052>057-               
061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
711 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT AT KSBN THIS MORNING ALG EDGE OF MID LVL                  
TROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE ALG PCPN SHIELD EDGE. THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL              
IN W/MVFR STRATOCU WHICH EXTENDS WELL WEST INTO ERN IA. IFR CIGS                
CONT AT KFWA IN LT-MOD RAIN AND APPEARS THAT WILL CONT THROUGH 14Z              
OR SO BFR DIMINISHING AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIG HGTS ENSUES. W/UPR            
TROUGH ACCELERATING EWD INTO THIS AFTN AND BLDG RIDGING SFC AND                 
ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
DEEP SRN STREAM SW TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING NEWD. BACKING MID LVL FLW            
AND TIGHT LL THERMAL GRADIENT LEADING TO EXPANDING AREA OF LT-MOD               
RAIN OVR SERN HALF OF CWA W/HEAVIER FNTL RAIN BAND NOW CLIPPING SE              
CORNER OF CWA. TRIMMED FLOOD WATCH FM EARLIER UPDATE MAY NOW                    
ACTUALLY PAN OUT ALG A MARION...OTTAWA LINE SOUTH AND IN LIGHT OF               
SHRT TERM RUC SOLUTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z AS DRIVING              
MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKS SLOWLY EWD. AFT THAT...HEAVIEST RAIN              
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OH CORRESPONDING TO BEST LL MSTR                  
TRANSPORT W/ELONGATED MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE HOLDING SE HALF                  
THROUGH EARLY AFTN BFR BREAKING DOWN IN ASSOCN/W UPR TROUGH                     
ACCELERATING EWD. LL CAA MAY STILL LEAD TO A MIX OF SNOW ON TAIL END            
OF PRECIP BUT W/SKIN TEMPS REMAINING WELL ABV FREEZING                          
ACCUMULATIONS INSIGNIFICANT. MEANWHILE POST FNTL AIRMASS CONTS TO               
DRY NW AND WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE DAY W/EVENTUAL CLEARING LT              
AFTERNOON NW THROUGH EVENING SE AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE            
TO PCPN SHIELD WILL DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER FAR NW. OTHERWISE WILL              
HOLD CLOSE TO GOING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN INTERVENTION HAS              
CAUSED MORE HARM THEN GOOD LAST TWO DAYS.                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...WITH ONE DISTURBANCE              
POSSIBLY RESULTING IS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND             
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MON NIGHT/TUE. THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR OVERALL                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN             
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                      
THU NIGHT - SAT AM:                                                             
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE               
AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ESE ALONG IT               
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI/FRI EVE. A SHRTWV WILL EJECT INTO THE                   
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS THU NIGHT NEAR/JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL               
THEN TRACK EAST INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL IN BY EARLY FRI EVE.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE                  
FARTHER NORTH 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...NAM...AND SREF. HOWEVER...THE               
LATEST ECMWF AND GEM RUN ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY               
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS STILL OFFSHORE SO                  
EXPECT DETAILS TO BECOME CLEARER WITH BETTER SAMPLING AS SHRTWV                 
SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW BY WED EVE. TOP DOWN METHOD FROM GFS/NAM                 
SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ALL SNOW JUST                
NORTH OF THE 850H LOW TRACK AND RAIN SOUTH. AS FOR INITIAL THOUGHTS             
ON TIMING...THINK BAND OF PRECIP BREAKS OUT ACROSS E IA...N IL...AND            
S WI THU EVE AND TRACKS EAST INTO SRN MI AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN IN BY             
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP WILL                   
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THETA-E ADV WITH LL CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF               
EXPECTED 35-50KT LL JET. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM ARE REMAINING                   
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS MAINLY IN THE 850-700H               
LAYER WITH POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. EVEN IF BAND             
ASSOCIATED WITH LL FORCING ENDS UP JUST NORTH OF CWA THU NIGHT/FRI              
AM...STILL THINK CWA WILL GET INTO SOME RAIN/SNOW FRI AFTN/EVE WITH             
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER                 
MOISTURE/OMEGA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY SN                
POPS ALONG/NORTH OF ROUTE 6 06-18Z FRI AND CHC POPS FOR MIX SOUTH.              
AND CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FRI AFTN EVERYWHERE FOR RAIN AND SNOW            
NORTH...AND ALL RAIN SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RN            
IN THE EVE...WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM. KEPT WITH CHC POPS            
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS PROBABLY NEEDING TO BUMP              
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST FRI EVE. FIRST GUESS FOR                 
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS IS 2-4 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF               
ROUTE 6...AROUND AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL CWA...AND AN INCH OR LESS               
FAR SOUTH.                                                                      
SAT-TUE:                                                                        
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME VERY                 
LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY                 
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP WITH DRY FCST AS TIMING THESE QUICK              
MOVING WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT AND THAT ANY SNOW                
WILL BE BRIEF/LIGHT DUE TO THERE BEING LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO                
WORK WITH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SNOW CHCS SAT AM WITH TROUGH              
AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO HINT AT A                  
STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL WINTER             
STORM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGH IN             
PLACE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND               
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN FOR LATE MON             
NIGHT INTO TUE AS 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A                 
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ026-027-032>034.            
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ016-024-025.                
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                          
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
732 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE                 
SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA AND THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED            
AT 7AM. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE STRONG LOW BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND              
GREENWOOD. THE TEMPERATURE AT GREENWOOD AT 7AM WAS STILL 71F WHILE              
THE TEMPERATURE AT GREENVILLE DROPPED TO 61F. LOWER 50S WERE NOTED              
BACK OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE              
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. HAVE                   
ADJUSTED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS              
ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT TODAY.                  
GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE DELTA REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOCAL                
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY                
AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY NORTHWEST OF            
A WINNSBORO TO GRENADA LINE. THE UPPER LOW WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE               
IMAGERY MOVING UP INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY             
BUT BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.            
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AND SHOULD LIMIT RAIN              
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ONCE THE CURRENT MORNING ACTIVITY                 
CLEARS OUT. UPDATES ARE POSTED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                      
NIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WAS NEARING THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT 330 AM AND             
STRONGEST FROM HIGHWAY 82 AND SOUTHWARD. OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL              
BE UNDER THE GUN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LINE IS EXPECTED            
TO BE CLOSE TO THE MS/AL STATE LINE BY 7 AM ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE              
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR OUR AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS            
SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE SURFACE              
ANALYSIS PLACES THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE LOW                
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY WHILE            
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
IS ALSO SHOWING THE EXPECTED DRY SLOTTING WRAPPING UP AROUND THE                
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.                            
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE               
TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA SO WL MAINTAIN RAIN             
CHANCES THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE            
EAST THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND EAST OF OUR CWA BY LATE                      
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...THE UPPER TROUGH            
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WON`T SHIFT EAST UNTIL TONIGHT. THE             
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LOCAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY              
CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING OVER OUR DELTA REGION.              
WL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE LATER. THUS WL ALLOW THE            
CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OR CWFA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO                
THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER            
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                            
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS              
ARE DRIER IN THE LONG TERM BUT MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA               
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE            
SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SLIDE EAST                
INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO               
THE SOUTH BUT REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE MUCH               
BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWFA SATURDAY. THE COLD               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING. HIGH            
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE                
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST AND ALLOWING A              
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE                
AREA STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF              
BUT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPEN A TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING            
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO SUNDAY            
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS              
FEATURE. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE               
LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH RESULTING IN PATCHY FROST. IF THE GFS TRENDS             
TOWARD THE ECMWF EVEN COLDER MORNING LOWS COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY              
MORNING. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION MONDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING            
TREND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA. OUTSIDE              
OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.            
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A              
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL             
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT.                  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TODAY BUT THE LOW CLOUDS            
WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE NORTH UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS                
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       69  41  70  42 /  20   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      71  42  69  38 /  61   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     67  41  69  42 /  16   0   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   71  43  72  39 /  30   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       65  43  68  41 /  14   0   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    66  40  68  45 /  41   0   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     69  39  68  43 /  50   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-           
     025-026-034-035-040-041.                                                   
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-           
     015.                                                                       
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1127 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH                 
TONIGHT. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL SPREAD INTO NY AND PA AHEAD OF              
THE STORM. SNOW WILL FOLLOW ONCE THE STORM MOVES EAST.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LOCAL RADARS SHOW LARGE HOLES IN PRECIP SHIELD FROM CNTRL NY                    
THROUGH NORTHWEST PA TO CNTRL OHIO. BOTH 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUC                 
INDICATE LIGHTER QPF THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES               
TO MENTION OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
AS WE APPROACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MODELS INDICATE                
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE FROM THE TWIN TIERS DOWN THROUGH                
THE WYOMING VALLEY. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS PRODUCED                        
MODERATELY UNSTABLE LI/S, BUT THESE WERE BASED ON UNREALISTICALLY               
HIGH DEW POINTS. WE MODIFIED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS USING SFC TEMPS IN              
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND DEW POINTS FROM 41F TO 45F. THIS                
PRODUCED LI/S FROM -2C TO +1C. K-INDICES ALSO SHOUTING CONVECTIVE               
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.                                                       
GIVEN POSITION OF LLJ NOSE AND DEVELOPING INSTABILITY, WE HAVE                  
ADDED CHC THUNDER FROM 22Z TO 6Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.                 
WINDS OF 50-60 KTS FROM 3-5KFT SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE              
VERY GUSTY WINDS. DOWNPOURS COULD BE PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME IF                
TERRAIN IS ALREADY SATURATED.                                                   
COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW               
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED UP TO AN INCH OF                 
SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.                    
PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND FORMS BEHIND STORM AS UL TROF ENERGY SITS                
OVERHEAD. FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. A 1-2 INCH SNOW               
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR UP TO               
3 INCHES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS PATTERN SLOWLY WEAKENS                  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                                         
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ANOTHER                  
POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREAT               
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO EXISTING FORECAST.                                  
FAST MOVING SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH BY EARLY               
SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST PA              
AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE                
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM CANADA                
IN CONTROL.                                                                     
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND                           
MONDAY...WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR                 
THE EAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST                    
AREA...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL                  
NY/NORTHEAST PA...ALTHOUGH EVEN ITS SOLUTION IS FARTHER TO THE                  
EAST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. FOR NOW...WE`LL KEEP IN THE CHANCE OF               
SNOW AREA-WIDE.                                                                 
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE                
CHANCE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
MVFR TO IFR INDICATED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...AS RAIN AND LOWER               
CEILINGS IMPACT THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO                  
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKING TO                   
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...UPON              
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MIX WITH              
SNOW AFTER ABOUT 09Z.                                                           
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THUR/THUR NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COULD CAUSE                   
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE SYR-ITH-BGM-                
RME TERMINALS. GUSTY 15-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.                     
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STILL A                        
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SYR TERMINAL                
ON FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS COULD CAUSE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS.             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-             
     047-048-072.                                                               
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-                 
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RRM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...JML/MLJ                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
344 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT             
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND                 
THURSDAY. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS            
THE LOW SETTLES TO THE NORTH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS             
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC            
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES INTO TUE.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES PHASE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF GULF               
MOISTURE GETTING SWEPT NORTHWARD ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD...SEEN                  
NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PREVAIL                    
THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP...AND THIS                 
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST HALF TO MOST OF THE CWA...FROM               
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE OVER                 
CENTRAL PA. WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THIS LOW                      
PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME                  
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT SFC COLD FRONT ON ALL MODELS                     
DEPICTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. STRONG FRONTAL                      
FORCING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS                 
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ALWAYS RUN THE RISK OF MIXING SOME                
OF THE STRONG WINDS DOWN (LOW LEVEL JET) IN ANY HEAVIER                         
CONVECTION. THIS HAS HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER. THIS                   
WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO GRADIENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING                
BACK A FEW DEGREES TOWARD MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.                             
AS FOR RAINFALL...COULD SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL              
AREAL RAINFALL OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                         
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS            
IS A FEW HOUR LAG BEHIND SFC FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS               
THIS MOVES THROUGH. THEN...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER AND SFC LOW SETTLE            
OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES BEFORE SLOWLY RETROGRADING INTO SOUTHEAST               
CANADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY                 
THURSDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES             
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...WITH NAM AND GFS STRONGER             
AT APPROX 974 HPA BY THU EVENING. EC/UKMET/GGEM NOT AS DEEP...BUT               
DEEP NONETHELESS. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS THROUGH                 
THIS TIME FRAME. AS SUCH...WEST/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG                     
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE OUR STRONGEST WINDS                  
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW CLOUDS              
FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT DEEP NW FLOW UP THE                  
COLUMN WILL KEEP IT DRY.                                                        
AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER                 
WAVE/SFC LOW APPROACH IN FAST WEST FLOW. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS               
MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY             
LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE                    
LIGHT...AND MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A                 
RAIN/SNOW MIX. DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BY SAT AFTN.                      
TEMPS: FOLLOWED  A MOS BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH I                    
DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE AN               
OUTLIER WITH MET/MAV AND 2 M MODEL TEMPS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...WITH HIGH                     
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN THE                    
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS OFF              
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM                
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LATE SEASON                   
SNOWSTORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGIONS.                     
HOWEVER..THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO IN               
FAVOR OF A TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST. LATEST 12Z GFS AND                      
CANADIAN RUNS ALSO DEPICT A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT              
IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THERE               
IS ALSO MODEL DISPARITY IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH           
ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GFS SLOWER. BY WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL               
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING SLIGHTLY                
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS...SCATTERED                    
SHOWERS AND FOG AT AREA TERMINALS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM                 
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW FAR                
NORTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES. GFS AND              
ETA MOS GUIDANCE KEEP LIFR/IFR CIGS IN PLACE UNTIL 09Z THURSDAY                 
(WHEN COLD FRONT PASSES) WHILE RUC AND GFS BUFKIT ANALYSIS                      
INDICATE MVFR CONDS AFTER 02Z. WROTE HIGH END IFR CONDS INTO 18Z                
TAFS UNTIL 02Z...AND WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF FRONT THIS                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
EXPECT A ESE TO SE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM                    
FRONT...WITH A S FLOW INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TO THE SOUTH OF                 
THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENS AFTER ABOUT                       
20/02Z. LOOK FOR A 50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 1500-2000 FT.                  
CONTINUED MENTION OF WS IN THE TAFS.                                            
COLD FROPA TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 08-12Z FROM WEST TO                
EAST...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED OR IMMEDIATELY PRECEDED BY A LINE OR                  
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A RUMBLE OF                  
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.            
A STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE               
FRONT...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.                                  
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY             
W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE THU INTO FRI.                                            
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT NO CIG/VSBY               
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL AREA WATERS                
THIS EVENING...WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT              
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS                
DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP SCA TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO GALES                
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD DURING             
THIS EVENING WHEN GUSTS ARE NOT REACHING 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN               
ARE ALREADY AT 6-7 FT...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS FOR                     
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS EVENING.                                            
WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES                
THROUGH. MODELS INDICATING A 60-70KT LLJ PRECEDING THE                          
FRONT...HOWEVER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE             
UNTIL FROPA. IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE STRONGER CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN               
STRONG GUSTS...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...BUT WILL             
MENTION OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS IN CWF LATE AT NIGHT.                       
GALE FORCE GUSTS ACCOMPANIED BY WNW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS                
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BUILD             
UP TO 7-10 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE AREA ON                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM MOVING               
FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. GALES               
THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY AS                
WELL. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO EXTEND GALES INTO FRIDAY WHERE                    
NECESSARY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL SOMETIME LATE                
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.                                             
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                    
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A COASTAL LOW WILL                
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING NE FLOW            
AND BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERION                   
LATER ON MONDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED A HALF TO AN INCH OF QPF...AND ANOTHER            
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER            
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.                                 
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE SHOWING MINOR TO MODERATE RISES THROUGH THE              
PERIOD. THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME RUNOFF...AND SOME              
RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RETURN TO NORMAL...SO NO                   
RIVER/STREAM FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                              
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-           
     338-340-345-350-353-355-370.                                               
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-             
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...PW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...PW                                                                 
LONG TERM...NV/MS                                                               
AVIATION...KS/JC                                                                
MARINE...JC/NV/MS                                                               
HYDROLOGY...PW                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
244 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL WORK SLOWLY               
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA                   
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A                   
CHANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. THIS FRONT              
IS PART OF A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ENCOMPASSING THE OHIO AND               
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS                     
BOUNDARY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER                    
CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA                
TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE. A STRONG                  
WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THU AND FRI AS THE DEEPENING LOW                  
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE              
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SAT...FOLLOWED BY                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUN. LOW PRESSURE                 
PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...FOLLOWED BY               
HIGH PRES INTO TUE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZED RAIN...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD                 
COVERAGE UPSTREAM. OCCASIONAL RAIN ANTICIPATED AS AIR GETS FORCED               
OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH SITS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IN ANY                  
BREAKS...COULD OBSERVE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ALWAYS HARD TO FORECAST              
THE EXTENT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE WARM FRONTS THIS                   
TIME OF YEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE                    
ACROSS CSTL SECTIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES               
TOWARD PA. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL PLACES LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL PA              
WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 992 MB. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY              
JET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS THE MAIN IMPETUS TO PUSH THE WARM              
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI- STATE AREA.                                      
AREAS OF FOG REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS                     
USUALLY OCCURS. COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO                  
RISE WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. LATE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE              
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES                  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
PCPN WILL BECOME MORE DISJOINTED AND UNORGANIZED DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AS              
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND...ITS TRAILING             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. STRONG FRONTAL                
FORCING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL                  
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD               
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BECOME                 
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING...                    
CONCERN FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE. HOWEVER...CURRENT                   
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO.                                 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND ARE EXPECTED             
TO BE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THE              
EVENT BETWEEN ONE AND ONE ONE HALF INCHES.                                      
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS DIFFERED BY ABOUT 6 HR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                
TIMING...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. BOTH THE 21Z SREF              
AND 00Z GFES SUPPORTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.                  
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG W/NW FLOW ENSUES THU              
INTO FRI AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER               
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW WIND                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A STRONG ISALLOBARIC SURGE BEHIND THE              
COLD FRONT COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.               
CONFIDENCE FOR SUCH A SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO               
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY.                                            
CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THU WILL BE OFFSET BY A                  
STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WITH SKIES CLEARING BY AFTERNOON.                    
EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO BIG                
DIFFERENCES IN MOS NUMBERS...SO WILL FOLLOW A BLEND.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
INITIALLY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE FRI NIGHT             
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD SUPPRESS A WEAK LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE                  
PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION              
ON SAT. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                   
PER HPC...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS MODEL                 
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS AND RELATIVELY               
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING              
HOW QUICKLY TO BRING PACIFIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP NE                   
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW INTO NORTH AMERICA...AND HOW AMPLIFIED THIS                  
ENERGY WILL BE. AS A RESULT THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT PRELIMINARY              
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 18/00Z ECMWF...00Z                
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE 17/12Z ECMWF...WHICH DEPICTS LOW                  
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY...THEN                  
MOVING OFFSHORE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY MON MORNING AND HEADING NE             
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER MON. THIS TRANSLATES TO CHANCE              
POP SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW OVER THE                
INTERIOR MAINLY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE               
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW             
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN DRY WX                   
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TUE...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY                        
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS...SCATTERED                    
SHOWERS AND FOG AT AREA TERMINALS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM                 
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW FAR                
NORTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES. GFS AND              
ETA MOS GUIDANCE KEEP LIFR/IFR CIGS IN PLACE UNTIL 09Z THURSDAY                 
(WHEN COLD FRONT PASSES) WHILE RUC AND GFS BUFKIT ANALYSIS                      
INDICATE MVFR CONDS AFTER 02Z. WROTE HIGH END IFR CONDS INTO 18Z                
TAFS UNTIL 02Z...AND WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF FRONT THIS                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
EXPECT A ESE TO SE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM                    
FRONT...WITH A S FLOW INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TO THE SOUTH OF                 
THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENS AFTER ABOUT                       
20/02Z. LOOK FOR A 50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 1500-2000 FT.                  
CONTINUED MENTION OF WS IN THE TAFS.                                            
COLD FROPA TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 08-12Z FROM WEST TO                
EAST...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED OR IMMEDIATELY PRECEDED BY A LINE OR                  
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A RUMBLE OF                  
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.            
A STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE               
FRONT...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.                                  
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY             
W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE THU INTO FRI.                                            
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT NO CIG/VSBY               
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON          
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY AND                     
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-35 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO               
BE ROUGH.                                                                       
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE RAISED FOR ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...A VERY STRONG              
WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE            
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE               
EXISTS FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER ALL WATERS             
THU AND THU NIGHT.                                                              
THEREAFTER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT ON            
ALL WATERS...AND ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AS MODERATE NW                
FLOW CONTINUES. QUIET CONDITIONS FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD             
ON SUNDAY...WHICH THEN GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING LOW                   
PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING NE-E FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN                    
BUILDING SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO                  
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY               
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL                 
COME IN TWO INSTALLMENTS...WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO EARLY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.                       
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE SHOWING MINOR TO MODERATE RISES THROUGH THIS             
PERIOD. THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME RUNOFF...AND SOME              
RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RETURN TO NORMAL...SO NO                   
RIVER/STREAM FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                              
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-           
     338-340-345-350-353-355-370.                                               
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-             
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
152 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK              
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OFF              
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. WINDY AND COLDER                    
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY            
AND FRIDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
BUSY MORNING...WITH A SECOND UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WE                   
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR NRN WASHINGTON AND                       
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES.  THE REMAINING WINTER ADVISORIES WERE             
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL CONTINUE            
PORTIONS OF THE NRN BERKS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.                     
MADIS/METARS AROUND THE AREA SHOW TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE MID             
30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN TIER.  WE HAD A REPORT OF SLEET AND                
FREEZING RAIN STILL ONGOING IN NRN WARREN COUNTY. ELEVATED FREEZING             
RAIN LOOKS TO BE STILL ONGOING OVER WINDHAM COUNTY.  LOCATIONS LIKE             
KGFL HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR ALL LOCATIONS            
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT             
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PA.                                                        
THE REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN               
W/SW OF ERN NY.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PERIODS OF RAIN PHRASING             
FOR THE AFTERNOON.  FOR THE MOST PART...ITS HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH                 
TOTAL QPF ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM A FEW TENTHS TO A THIRD OF             
AN INCH THUS FAR.                                                               
THE 13KM RUC SHOWS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING N/NE FROM              
OH VALLEY.  THE QG LIFT WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE PM FROM THE STRONG            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WAVE.  WE STILL BELIEVE SOME SCT TSRAS             
MAYBE BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWALTER VALUES 0 TO -2C IN THE 22Z TO 06Z              
TIME FRAME.                                                                     
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH 1-2" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT POSSIBLE BY 12Z            
THU.                                                                            
THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SRN ADIRONDACKS WITH 6-12            
INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WARNING WILL BE FURTHER                
ADDRESSED THIS AFTERNOON.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN...HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES NE AHEAD OF               
SFC LOW...SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED                
MENTION FOR AREAS S OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT.             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE               
MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER             
MIDNIGHT...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD EASILY BE PROPELLED                  
DOWNWARD WITHIN ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ESP SOUTH OF THE               
WARM FRONT.                                                                     
THE LOW SHOULD THEN TRACK ACROSS SE AREAS AROUND/JUST AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT...AND TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS TRACK WILL            
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SURGE E/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANGING THE RAIN               
INTO SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SEVERAL              
INCHES OF ACCUM IS POSSIBLE BY THU AM. ELSEWHERE...RAIN SHOWERS MAY             
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                 
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN                
SHOULD FALL SHARPLY. SOME REGIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT            
COULD ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EVEN                  
POSSIBLE INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR RETURNS                
LATER TONIGHT...WITH MINS OCCURRING AROUND 12Z.                                 
THU-THU NT...STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW                
LEVEL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE FROM LAKES WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT SNOW                
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO                 
SOUTHERN VT FOR THU-THU NT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS                
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...WHERE WARNINGS              
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FRI AM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS VALLEY                   
LOCALES. THE BIGGER STORY OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA              
WILL BE THE STRONG/GUSTY WNW WINDS...WHICH MAY REACH OR EXCEED                  
ADVISORY LEVELS. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WIND ADV THUS FAR...BUT MAY            
NEED TO ISSUE THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY             
WENT WITH MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...EXCEPT SLIGHT WARMINER              
FOR THU NT MINS...AS CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY                 
ABOVE TEMPS SUGGESTED BY MOS.                                                   
FRI-FRI NT...STILL WINDY ON FRI...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS            
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WITH               
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI NT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
ON SATURDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES FROM OHIO TO THE DELMARVA AND                
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ONCE IT IS WELL OUT TO               
SEA. MEANWHILE CLOSED 500 HPA LOW REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES AND                
DRIFTS NORTH VERY SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A             
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL            
CANADA...ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS AND CLOUDS AND SNOW/RAIN FROM LAKE              
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN                  
NORMAL...WITH CLOUDS AND WIND MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. MODELS                
DISAGREE ON TRACK OF A LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN              
STATES AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WOULD BRING A                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE REGION NORTH AND              
WEST OF THE SNOW. AT THIS POINT WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. HIGH               
PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY                 
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
CLEARLY A MESS TODAY.  GFL KICKS IT OFF WITH LIFR CIGS...WHILE ALB              
AND POU MVFR.  THINGS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE INCHES              
CLOSER.  EXPANDING BATCH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER EASTERN PA ON RADAR             
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO REGION BY 00Z ACCORDING TO NAM.  HAVE                    
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN MODERATE RAIN.                
WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY AT ALB AND POU...SO HAVE               
INCLUDED A GROUP FOR ALL PORTS 00-05Z.  LOW PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT               
OVER ALB AREA.  ONCE COLD FRONT PULLS THROUGH...WINDS MIX DOWN AND              
WIND SHEAR NOT AN ISSUE...BUT STRONG...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE.             
THINGS LIGHTEN TO SHOWERY...AND WITH COLDER AIR PULLING IN...HAVE               
CALLED FOR -SHRASNPL AFT 10Z AT ALL.  WITH SOME DEGREE OF WRAPAROUND            
EXPECTED BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH ALL 15-18Z...             
BY WHICH TIME WE`RE AT VFR...THOUGH BKN-OVC.  MOST CRITICAL ISSUE               
THEN WILL BE THE SURFACE WINDS.                                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW                   
SHOWERS EARLY PART. STRONG GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH PERIOD.                   
SAT THRU SUN...VFR NO WX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND               
COAST THURSDAY.                                                                 
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE                  
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10-20 MPH                          
TODAY...SHIFTING INTO THE W TO NW AND INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH TONIGHT             
AND THURSDAY.                                                                   
HAINES INDICES WILL ONLY REACH 2 TODAY...AND RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FOR              
THU AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN              
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO                        
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                 
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE               
LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT              
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING AND MOST OF             
THE PRECIP WILL COME AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE MAIN             
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY                   
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...WHICH IS             
THE NORM FOR MID MARCH. FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE              
FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN COOL ENOUGH            
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT TO AVERT A                 
RAPID MELTDOWN OF THE WINTER SNOW. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN AT THIS            
POINT ARE FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER TO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND FROM             
THE SOUTHWEST VERMONT AND THE HUDSON RIVER FROM SCHUYLERVILLE SOUTH             
AND EAST THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. ESPECIALLY                
VULNERABLE WILL BE THE ESOPUS AND RONDOUT CREEKS AS WELL AS THE                 
HOUSATONIC BASIN SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS. ALSO SNOWMELT MAY OCCUR IN             
THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES WHICH WOULD ADD             
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF TO RIVERS IN THESE AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A                     
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTER NOON AND EVENING ACROSS               
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA  WHICH COULD ADD TO THE                  
PRECIP AMOUNTS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2PM TODAY UNTIL 2PM             
THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT              
AND CHANGE ANY LINGERING RAIN BACK TO SNOW.                                     
PLEASE REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERIES /AHPS/                
PAGES ON THE WEB FOR DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THE RIVERS.                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.                     
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-043-                 
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084.                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ042.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.                 
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.                     
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013.                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ014-             
     015.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KL/TAW                                                               
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...KL                                                                 
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...ELH                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...KL                                                               
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1144 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS               
OF THE TRI STATE AREA AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DETERIORATED                  
NEAR 15 PERCENT AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 15                    
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST               
THIS MORNING SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25                 
MPH CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO                  
DECREASE AND RH TO RECOVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE               
ON TRACK SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE TRI STATE                 
AREA TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60`S TODAY. BURTIS                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
222 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES/WINDS/FIRE WEATHER                  
CONCERNS TODAY...TEDIOUS TEMPERATURE/WIND FORECAST THURSDAY...AND               
HOW MUCH TO COOL DOWN FRIDAY...AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY            
NIGHT AND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A                  
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL               
UNITED STATES. SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LOOKING LIKE IT IS BEGINNING TO              
PUSH EAST. FLOW SLOWS UP AND IS BLOCKY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.                 
AT JET LEVEL...INITIALLY MODELS DID WELL WITH JET POSITION AND                  
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE JET TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND UKMET              
WERE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT 06Z...THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE            
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE JET POSITION. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE                 
REASONABLY INTIALIZED AND SIMILAR. ALL OF THEM ARE CATCHING NORTHERN            
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
LOW BUT DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE                 
GFS DOES LOOK TO HAVE TO BE TOO MOIST.                                          
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM AND RUC WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WIND               
FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE COLD POOL TO OUR EAST             
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO OUR NORTH. MODELD DID NOT HAVE THE EASTERN            
COLD POOL FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING                  
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. WILL BE GOING WITH A                  
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WARMER...DRIER...AND                
WINDIER OUTPUT.                                                                 
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA               
THROUGH THE DAY WITH FORECAST AREA UNDER JET SUBSIDENCE. AREA LOOKS             
TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN. MAY HAVE AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD UP AGAIN                
BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SNOW FIELD WAS A NON                 
ISSUE YESTERDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST                
BEING TOO COOL. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE MAV/GFS LATELY.                  
USING THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...DIURNAL RANGE...AND               
BIASES FROM THE 2 METER AND 850 MB...YIELDED TEMPERATURES IN THE                
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                
BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR              
MASS...AND SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO               
BE BREEZY AGAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS IS LOW DEWPOINTS                     
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS NEAR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND                   
UPSTREAM RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND THIS IS IN THE              
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS WILL              
HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK ONCE MIXING OCCURS. MOST MODEL OUTPUT IS WAY             
TOO HIGH ON MOISTURE. USED THE NGM AS A FIRST GUESS SINCE IT WAS                
THE LOWEST...AND THEN MODIFIED. WIND WIND WILL BE THE WILD CARD AND             
WILL BE CLOSE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WARNING.                                     
WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF.              
THERE IS A TENDENCY TOWARD UPSLOPE BUT SINCE SPEEDS ARE NOT THAT                
HIGH...DO NOT BUY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...              
BELIEVE THAT LOWS COULD DROP WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. TRENDED MINS...               
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...TO THAT DIRECTION.                                     
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE JET             
POSITION THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT                     
DIFFERENCE BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE FURTHER                 
NORTH WITH THE AXIS. THE NAM BRINGS IN A BETTER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT             
IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS US IN MUCH LESS LIFT.               
THE GFS AGAIN IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT BRING            
THE AXIS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS BRING THE            
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACROSS THE FORECAST IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME                  
FRAME.                                                                          
MAIN SYSTEM AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SWING A                 
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THEN               
SUBSIDENCE AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT QUICKLY MOVE IN                  
AFTER 06Z. SO WHATEVER PRECIPITATION FALLS WILL BE DONE BY 06Z.                 
POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY.                     
CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECEDE              
UPPER LIFT...WOULD AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT. SINCE SYSTEM WILL GO             
QUICKLY THROUGH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TIME FOR THE                     
MOISTURE TO SATURATE DOWN. THE TENDENCY WITH THESE FAST WEST TO                 
NORTHWEST SHORTWAVES HAS BEEN TO OVERPRODUCE PRECIPITATION. AM                  
LEANING TOWARD JUST HAVING EVENING SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME.                      
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW              
FAST WEAK BOUNDARY/EASTERLY WINDS MIX OUT AND PUSH TO THE EAST.                 
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED...THINK THAT THE                  
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS INCREASE AND FRONT            
APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. USING DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE METHODS                
POINTED TO TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 OVER MOST OF            
THE AREA. IF HAVE LESS CLOUDS AND SLOWER FRONT...WILL BE MUCH                   
WARMER.                                                                         
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ALSO BRING UP THE WINDS TO NEAR OR                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 KNOTS. NOT THE RIGHT TIME OF DAY YOU WOULD EXPECT             
TO GET STRONG WINDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND                
MAY BE POSSIBLE AND CONSIDERING A FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE UPPER                  
SYSTEM TO BRING IN STRONGER WINDS...THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. WILL             
INCREASE WINDS FOR THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINS MILD.                         
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET IS FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...NAM AND              
GFS DEVELOP A SECONDARY AXIS THAT PUTS THE AREA...MOSTLY THE                    
NORTHEAST HALF...IN SOME LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE               
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN...SPRING SUN...WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT               
TO THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL IN THIS SETUP THIS MONTH AND            
WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO PROBABLY KEEP             
THE WINDS UP CONSIDERING THAT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE.              
AREA STAYS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET THROUGH THE NIGHT               
AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. POINT                 
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW MEASURABLE              
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT RAISE THE                  
SILENT POPS.                                                                    
SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER DURING THE DAY. THE               
LAPSE RATES ARE THE BEST IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. FORECAST HAS                    
PRECIPITATION IN THERE AND WILL ONLY TWEEK IF NECESSARY. COOLER                 
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY LOOK FINE AT THIS TIME.                               
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION...IT WAS MUCH APPRECIATED.                      
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1144 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2008 FOR 18Z TAFS...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE               
INCREASED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER                    
GUSTS IN KGLD. KMCK SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY WITH WINDS TO PICK UP.                
WILL SEE THESE WINDS DROP TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY ARE                  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.                                                               
BURTIS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     KSZ001-013-027-041-042.                                                    
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR LVL              
TROF AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE               
THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES BEFORE                
EXITING EAST BY 12Z THU. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD            
LEAD TO SOME LES FORMATION TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -15C               
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE.                                                           
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...                                            
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT                    
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. 850MB                 
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -14 TO -15C BY 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH NNW            
WIND FLOW...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM AND IMPACT            
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF COLD LAYER             
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 5KFT SO THIS WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF LES BANDS            
DESPITE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION PROGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD              
LAYER. THIS FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH WILL RESULT IN SNOW/WATER RATIOS              
CLOSER TO 30 TO 1. LOCAL WRF-ARW MODEL SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN WHICH            
DEPICTS MORE DOMINANT BANDS SETTING UP OVER WRN ALGER/ERN MQT COUNTY            
AND OVER LUCE COUNTY. IF BANDS STAY OVER A LOCATION FOR ANY LENGTH              
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES. MOST            
LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL AND ERN ZONES SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.                 
FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS               
REACHING INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND UPR TEENS TO              
AROUND 20F EAST.                                                                
THURSDAY...LES BANDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING OVER THE ERN                  
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL HAVE               
MOVED EAST AFT 12Z. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF MID-UPR LVL            
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO LOWER BLO 3KFT BY                  
MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISRUPT ANY                
REMAINING LES BANDS OVER ERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL                
SHOW 850MB TEMPS -9 TO -12C WITH SNDGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME            
DIURNAL CU TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS. AGAIN FOLLOWED GFS MOS                    
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WITH WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH                  
CENTRAL U.P. FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE MI.                                 
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...                           
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...TROUGH OVR NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA                 
KEEPS NW FLOW ALOFT INTO GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND UPR GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW                
DIVING ESE ACROSS PLAINS STILL PROJECTED TO MISS UPR MI WITH ANY                
SNOW ON FRIDAY. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY FM NORTHERN SD               
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO SOUTHWEST WI. ATTM LOOKS LIKE NORTH EDGE            
OF SNOW WILL STAY OUT OF CWA BUT THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING                 
CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER ON FRI. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON                  
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LEFT OVER FM BRIEF              
COLD PUSH ON THU COULD YIELD LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES                
INTO FRIDAY. BY FRI AFTN PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF NAM SOUNDINGS AS              
HIGHER SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN             
A FEW LK EFFECT FLURRIES.                                                       
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND. NE WINDS AND              
COOL AIR CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN UPR MI. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT             
SOME LK EFFECT FLURRIES...BUT SINCE OVERALL EXPECT DOWNWARD MOTION              
AND INVERSIONS LOWER THAN H9...DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.                 
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH               
PRESSING INTO UPR LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK LIFT              
WITH THE FEATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW               
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PUSH INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA. LIGHT NORTH               
WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -14C COMBINED WITH THE LARGE SCALE               
LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASE IN LK EFFECT OVR NW AND NCNTRL CWA.                
COLDER 00Z ECMWF RESULTS IN A PUSH OF VERY CHILLY AIR FOR LATE MARCH            
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET CLOSE TO 500DAM               
AND H85 TEMPS ARE AROUND -18C AT 12Z MON. WITH NE WINDS...LK EFFECT             
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY FOR NW AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. LATEST ECMWF             
NOT NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE COLD AIR AROUND. IN FACT                  
...ECMWF NOW LOOKS A LOT LIKE EARLIER RUNS OF GFS WHICH BROUGHT LOW             
PRESSURE AND A SHOT FOR SNOW ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES ON TUE. CANADIAN            
STILL DRY AND EARLIER ENSEMBLES KEPT THE SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO THE               
SOUTH WHILE A VIGOROUS STORM TAKES AIM ON THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LATE            
SEASON SNOWSTORM. SINCE THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS...STUCK             
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE/WED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DIURNAL CU HAS RESULTED IN AN OCCASIONAL BKN MVFR CEILING AT KCMX               
THIS AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL INCREASE LAKE CLOUDS AS A PREVAILING MVFR DECK MOVES IN AT BOTH            
KCMX AND KSAW LATER THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE             
AT BOTH SITES BY LATE EVENING CONITNUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING OVER THE ERN HALF             
OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE              
TO THE EAST AND A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH              
COLD AIR TONIGHT AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...HEAVY                
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE            
FCST PD SHOULD BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR               
     LSZ264-266-267.                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                      
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
417 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR LVL              
TROF AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE               
THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES BEFORE                
EXITING EAST BY 12Z THU. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD            
LEAD TO SOME LES FORMATION TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -15C               
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE.                                                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT                    
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. 850MB                 
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -14 TO -15C BY 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH NNW            
WIND FLOW...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM AND IMPACT            
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF COLD LAYER             
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 5KFT SO THIS WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF LES BANDS            
DESPITE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION PROGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD              
LAYER. THIS FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH WILL RESULT IN SNOW/WATER RATIOS              
CLOSER TO 30 TO 1. LOCAL WRF-ARW MODEL SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN WHICH            
DEPICTS MORE DOMINANT BANDS SETTING UP OVER WRN ALGER/ERN MQT COUNTY            
AND OVER LUCE COUNTY. IF BANDS STAY OVER A LOCATION FOR ANY LENGTH              
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES. MOST            
LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL AND ERN ZONES SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.                 
FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS               
REACHING INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND UPR TEENS TO              
AROUND 20F EAST.                                                                
THURSDAY...LES BANDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING OVER THE ERN                  
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE HEART OF THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL HAVE               
MOVED EAST AFT 12Z. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF MID-UPR LVL            
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO LOWER BLO 3KFT BY                  
MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISRUPT ANY                
REMAINING LES BANDS OVER ERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL                
SHOW 850MB TEMPS -9 TO -12C WITH SNDGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME            
DIURNAL CU TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS. AGAIN FOLLOWED GFS MOS                    
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WITH WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH                  
CENTRAL U.P. FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE MI.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DIURNAL CU HAS RESULTED IN AN OCCASIONAL BKN MVFR CEILING AT KCMX               
THIS AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL INCREASE LAKE CLOUDS AS A PREVAILING MVFR DECK MOVES IN AT BOTH            
KCMX AND KSAW LATER THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE             
AT BOTH SITES BY LATE EVENING CONITNUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING OVER THE ERN HALF             
OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE              
TO THE EAST AND A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH              
COLD AIR TONIGHT AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...HEAVY                
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE            
FCST PD SHOULD BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR               
     LSZ264-266-267.                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
351 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...HANDLING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS                  
EASTERN SODAK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT PARTS               
OF WC/SW MN DURING THE NIGHT. APPEARS QUITE STRONG ON WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY(DARKENING NOTED ON WESTERN SIDE). MAY SEE SOME SLUSHY                   
ACCUMULATIONS FAR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER                  
THAT REGION. CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER MN PORTION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTO             
WI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME WITH THE THICKER CLOUD                  
COVER...AND OPTED TO GO A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TONIGHT...MAINLY                   
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
THEN FOCUS TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW EVENT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY              
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE ODD MODEL OUT                
THIS RUN...WITH SNOW BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THIS              
PERIOD. IT ACTUALLY CUT OFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THIS                   
REGION WITH RATHER ROBUST DEFORMATION SETTING UP. OPTED TO GO WITH              
MORE CONSISTENT GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND SNOW BAND ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG MN RIVER VALLEY REGION. SURFACE LOW                 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NEB AREA AND MOVE EAST ACROSS EXTREME                   
SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY. MAIN H5 WAVE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME                
AS MAIN ENERGY ARRIVE FROM THE WESTERN US. FOLLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF              
H7 WAVE...AND CIRCULATION DOES CUT OFF WITH TIME-FRIDAY. THIS                   
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR GOOD DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS MN RIVER VALLEY                 
REGION...PERHAPS AFFECTING SOUTHERN METRO AS WELL. WENT WITH                    
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH MARGINAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS/AROUND 6                   
INCHES TOTAL/ IN THIS AREA. GOOD BE MORE IF WE CAN GET SUSTAINED                
LIFT OVER A REGION FOR FRIDAY. WILL BE HEAVY/WET SNOW NONETHELESS.              
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT FRIDAY EVENING...LEAVING SOME CLOUD COVER                
AND THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                          
OTHERWISE...UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...AND COULD                
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCE OF THIS                
OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE                       
REGION...AND WENT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION                 
THEN. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING                 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SD AT THIS TIME APPEARS A BIT                    
STRONGER THAN THE 12Z NAM OR GFS. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST                    
HANDLE ON IT...BUT WEAKENS IT THIS EVENING...AS DO THE OTHER                    
MODELS...WITH RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MN. ABUNDANT MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. SATURATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO                       
PROMISING. WL KEEP CHC FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT IN SW MN. MAY NEED TO              
ADD AXN TO THIS. OTHERWISE LIGHT NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO               
THE NORTHEAST OVER MOST AREAS... EXCEPT RWF WHERE SFC LOW WL SLIDE              
BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING            
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-                     
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                  
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-                   
     SIBLEY-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.               
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDK/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1257 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                  
THIS MORNING...BUT COMBO OF APPROACHING WAVE AND SOME POSSIBILITY               
OF CU SHOULD GIVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR AFTERNOON. MODELS                 
WEAKEN THE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO IA LATER               
TODAY AND TONIGHT. JUST THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHWEST SEE DECENT SATURATION IN THE COLUMN AS THIS WAVE PASSES               
BY. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT KEEP THE SAME GENERAL               
AREA. WILL ALSO BE MILD ENOUGH TO SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS TEMPS              
COOL FROM A HIGH IN THE 40S. STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE                
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MUCH BETTER                         
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO WORK WITH. LIKE THE TRENDS OF THE                         
ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS NAM HAS BEEN JUMPING AROUND THE LAST FEW RUNS.                
ECMWF AND SREF TAKE A 700 MB LOW GENERALLY ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN               
WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD TREND FOR SNOW. WARMER 1000-850 THICKNESS                 
SUPPORTS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. FRONTOGENETIC              
BAND COULD SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. GENERALLY AGREE WITH HPC OF               
POSSIBLE 4 TO 6 INCH SNOWS ACROSS THIS AREA.                                    
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE                
OF TROFS IN THE NW FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...AND POSSIBLE              
TREND FOR A COUPLE OF COLDER DAYS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS A JUST A              
BIT FOR SUNDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SD AT THIS TIME APPEARS A BIT                    
STRONGER THAN THE 12Z NAM OR GFS. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST                    
HANDLE ON IT...BUT WEAKENS IT THIS EVENING...AS DO THE OTHER                    
MODELS...WITH RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MN. ABUNDANT MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. SATURATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO                       
PROMISING. WL KEEP CHC FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT IN SW MN. MAY NEED TO              
ADD AXN TO THIS. OTHERWISE LIGHT NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO               
THE NORTHEAST OVER MOST AREAS... EXCEPT RWF WHERE SFC LOW WL SLIDE              
BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn