SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
947 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...AS THE CIRRUS DECK THINS THIS                      
MORNING...SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE                      
CENTRAL COAST AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY VALLEYS. NAM BUFR DATA                 
IS INDICATING A THIN LAYER MOISTURE AT KSMX AND KSBP THIS                       
MORNING. WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARING THIS MORNING ALONG THE               
CENTRAL COAST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WORDING WILL BE                 
ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY VALLEYS.                  
13-KM RUC AND NAM-WRF BOUNDARY LAYER AND 975 MB RELATIVE                        
HUMIDITIES INDICATE SOME MARINE LAYER PUSH INTO THE LOS ANGELES                 
COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. KLSI INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG SOUTH OF               
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                
SPREADS NARROWING AT KLGB...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL                
BE ADDED TO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.                    
MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME MORE DEVELOPED TONIGHT AS                            
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF                
POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND                  
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH INTO SOME OF THE LOWER                  
VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. NAM BUFR                  
DATA INCREASE MARINE INVERSION OVER KLAX AND KLGB TO NEAR 1200                  
FEET...AND 600 FEET OVER KSBA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED NORTH                 
OF POINT CONCEPTION...BUT WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND               
FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...IT MAY NOT BE A BAD CALL FOR                      
FURTHER PACKAGES TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. SOME CONCERN IS ALSO                    
PRESENT FOR THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH 06Z NAM                   
BUFR DATA INDICATING A STRONGER PUSH TONIGHT INTO KBUR AND KVNY.                
INITIALLY...THIS WAS WEAKER BUT LEFT A CHANCE...BUT WITH 06Z NAM-               
WRF AND NAM BUFR DATA INDICATING A BETTER SURGE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS               
AND FOG WILL BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH MARINE                   
LAYER DEEPENING TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE                 
SUNDAY...AND COOLING TREND SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.                          
MARINE COULD DEEPEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO                            
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.               
06Z NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AS             
SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE MOST                      
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT MOIST 850 MB AND                
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP BENEATH AND 500 MB                 
JET AND 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN. MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE                 
OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS PATTERN.                   
WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM...FUTURE SHIFTS                 
WILL HAVE TO LIKELY INCREASE POPS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                  
CURRENT PACKAGE TAKE A MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO                          
ACCOUNT...BUT LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION.                                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...ALL MODELS AGREE ON PRECIPITATION               
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP               
AND SKY COVER INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL                
LIKELY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS SHOULD CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW                  
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE CURRENT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED                
ARE FOR A THIRD OF AN INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OVER THE                    
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AROUND AN INCH THE MOUNTAINS...AND A                 
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL                 
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. WITH TIMING PROBLEMS                    
OCCURRING STILL...LOW CONFIDENCE SHOULD PLACED IN THE EXACT                     
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A SOME                    
POINT AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE                
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                    
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THE                    
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DOWNWARD WITH THROUGH AXIS PASSING BY                 
THE AREA AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY                 
EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WIND ISSUES COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                     
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH I-5                    
CORRIDOR. MODELS VARY FROM DRY TO WET DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE                 
FOR LATE WEEK. GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO THE                           
WETTEST...WITH THE DGEX AND ECMWF PROGRESSIVELY DRIER. A MAJORITY               
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DOES PUSH THE TROUGH CENTER OVER THE              
POINT CONCEPTION. GEM MODEL SOLUTION INDICATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH               
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THE WET SIDE. WITH LITTLE                
CONFIDENCE BLANKET POPS WERE LEFT IN THE EXTENDED BUT A HUNCH MAY               
BE FOLLOW THE INDICATIONS OF THE GFS...DGEX...AND GEM RELATIVE TO               
THE ECMWF...THE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/1800Z                                                            
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST                 
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DIVES                   
SOUTHEAST. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL                  
PREVAIL. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. LOW               
LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WILL PERSIST NEAR SHORE AND LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE            
AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH TOPS AROUND 020.                           
KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY BELOW 010 THEN             
ASCEND TO 015 WITH TOPS AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                     
MORNING.                                                                        
KBUR...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 010 LATE IN THE                
PERIOD.                                                                         
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%                                                     
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%                                                      
LIKELY            - 60-80%                                                      
CHANCE            - 30-60%                                                      
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HALL                                                                   
AVIATION...30                                                                   
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES                                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
416 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...AS THE CIRRUS DECK THINS THIS                      
MORNING...SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE                      
CENTRAL COAST AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY VALLEYS. NAM BUFR DATA                 
IS INDICATING A THIN LAYER MOISTURE AT KSMX AND KSBP THIS                       
MORNING. WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARING THIS MORNING ALONG THE               
CENTRAL COAST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WORDING WILL BE                 
ADDED TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY VALLEYS.                  
13-KM RUC AND NAM-WRF BOUNDARY LAYER AND 975 MB RELATIVE                        
HUMIDITIES INDICATE SOME MARINE LAYER PUSH INTO THE LOS ANGELES                 
COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. KLSI INDICATED SOME DENSE FOG SOUTH OF               
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                
SPREADS NARROWING AT KLGB...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL                
BE ADDED TO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.                    
MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME MORE DEVELOPED TONIGHT AS                            
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF                
POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND                  
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH INTO SOME OF THE LOWER                  
VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. NAM BUFR                  
DATA INCREASE MARINE INVERSION OVER KLAX AND KLGB TO NEAR 1200                  
FEET...AND 600 FEET OVER KSBA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED NORTH                 
OF POINT CONCEPTION...BUT WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND               
FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...IT MAY NOT BE A BAD CALL FOR                      
FURTHER PACKAGES TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. SOME CONCERN IS ALSO                    
PRESENT FOR THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH 06Z NAM                   
BUFR DATA INDICATING A STRONGER PUSH TONIGHT INTO KBUR AND KVNY.                
INITIALLY...THIS WAS WEAKER BUT LEFT A CHANCE...BUT WITH 06Z NAM-               
WRF AND NAM BUFR DATA INDICATING A BETTER SURGE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS               
AND FOG WILL BE ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. WITH MARINE                   
LAYER DEEPENING TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE                 
SUNDAY...AND COOLING TREND SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.                          
MARINE COULD DEEPEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO                            
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.               
06Z NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AS             
SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE MOST                      
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT MOIST 850 MB AND                
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP BENEATH AND 500 MB                 
JET AND 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN. MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE                 
OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS PATTERN.                   
WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM...FUTURE SHIFTS                 
WILL HAVE TO LIKELY INCREASE POPS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                  
CURRENT PACKAGE TAKE A MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO                          
ACCOUNT...BUT LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION.                                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...ALL MODELS AGREE ON PRECIPITATION               
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP               
AND SKY COVER INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL                
LIKELY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS SHOULD CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW                  
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE CURRENT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED                
ARE FOR A THIRD OF AN INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OVER THE                    
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AROUND AN INCH THE MOUNTAINS...AND A                 
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL                 
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. WITH TIMING PROBLEMS                    
OCCURRING STILL...LOW CONFIDENCE SHOULD PLACED IN THE EXACT                     
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A SOME                    
POINT AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE                
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                    
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING THE                    
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DOWNWARD WITH THROUGH AXIS PASSING BY                 
THE AREA AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY                 
EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WIND ISSUES COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                     
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH I-5                    
CORRIDOR. MODELS VARY FROM DRY TO WET DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE                 
FOR LATE WEEK. GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO THE                           
WETTEST...WITH THE DGEX AND ECMWF PROGRESSIVELY DRIER. A MAJORITY               
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DOES PUSH THE TROUGH CENTER OVER THE              
POINT CONCEPTION. GEM MODEL SOLUTION INDICATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH               
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THE WET SIDE. WITH LITTLE                
CONFIDENCE BLANKET POPS WERE LEFT IN THE EXTENDED BUT A HUNCH MAY               
BE FOLLOW THE INDICATIONS OF THE GFS...DGEX...AND GEM RELATIVE TO               
THE ECMWF...THE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/1200Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
AT MOST TAF SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR VSBYS            
ACROSS LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES EARLY...AND KPRB COULD HAVE SOME LIFR            
CIGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN                   
YESTERDAY. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.                                             
KLAX...EXCEPT FOR MORNING MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDS             
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR                    
IFR/MVFR CIGS AFTER 07Z. NO WIND ISSUES.                                        
KBUR...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY THROUGH MOST OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH               
JUST BELOW MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR/IFR CONDS AFTER 10Z. NO WIND            
ISSUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HALL                                                                   
AVIATION...KAPLAN                                                               
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES                                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
308 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
...SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TEMPERATURES...                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WELL               
ADVERTISED MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING              
ATTM. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY SURGE               
HAS CLEARED THE SE PLAINS WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES BEING REALIZED               
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BORDER ATTM. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES                
WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MIXING               
BEHIND SURGE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE             
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS ATTM.                                                      
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED ACROSS            
THE REGION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FLOW DECREASING FROM WEST             
TO EAST AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS                 
EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH                
PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION BUILDS               
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND WITH A COOL            
AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER SFC HIGH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES...SHOULD              
ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS AGAIN LEADS TO TRICKY                
FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN               
HALF OF THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BUILD. AT ANY RATE...HAVE GONE AT OR                
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH              
AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                  
TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY                      
MONDAY...AND HAVE STAYED AROUND CURRENT GUIDANCE TEMPS...THOUGH                 
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDICATING LIMITED MIXING DUE TO INVERSIONS HOLDING IN PLACE BETWEEN            
H75 AND H7 WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO NOT MUCH DIVERSITY IN TEMPERATURES              
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS. -MW                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)                                              
UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY...WITH 700 MB                     
THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF                 
MILD TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEAK WAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE               
MAIN WESTERN TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY                         
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST LIFT STAYS WELL SOUTH...SO ONLY                
IMPACT WILL BE A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.                 
UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE DAY                  
WEDNESDAY...WITH 12Z MODELS LOOKING JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE               
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING. CUT BACK POPS OVER A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WED                    
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT THE ISOLATED POPS INTACT FOR THE CONTINENTAL               
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AS AT LEAST A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SAN                 
JUANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BOTH 12Z                 
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...DIFFERENT                
THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO SOLUTIONS FROM A FEW DAYS AGO.                    
ALTHOUGH TRACK IS MORE FAVORABLE TODAY...MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW AS               
IT EJECTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIP                      
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS MAIN PRECIP BAND                  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH              
WINDOW FOR PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FROM LATE               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ALONG AND                  
EAST OF I-25 LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE                
EVENING. MIGHT SEE ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS (4 TO 8 INCHES) OVER                  
THE SAN JUANS BY FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH MUCH COULD CHANGE BY                   
THEN. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME ACCUMS AS              
WELL...THOUGH AMOUNTS HERE LOOK FAIRLY MODEST. LOW EJECTS EASTWARD              
FRIDAY AS SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY                
LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST MAY BE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP TOO LONG ON                 
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST...BUT WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING                 
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT 700 MB UNTIL LATE SATURDAY                              
AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE THE ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW. STILL                
COOL SATURDAY...WITH MODEST WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF POTENTIAL COLD              
FRONT BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF     
SITES WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MODERATING TO MORE               
WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.               
BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC BEHIND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH            
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE LATE             
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. -MW           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
311 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES...                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES            
WITH SEVERAL MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE            
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ATTM. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK LEE                
TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR ATTM.                              
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A SLIGHT INCREASE            
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AS MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST             
IDAHO ATTM CONTINUES TO ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z SUN AND THEN             
CONTINUES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF MINOR WAVE ALLOWS FOR LEE TROUGH TO KICK                 
OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY              
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE               
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW                  
STRONG SFC BASED INVERSIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS                  
EVENING MAKING FOR TOUGH FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER...WITH            
LEE TROUGH NOT KICKING OUT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE STAYED             
THE COURSE WITH AOB GUIDANCE FOR THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF                     
ALS...PUB AND LAA...THOUGH HAVE WARMED CURRENT MIN TEMP GRID ALONG              
AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS                   
KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE THERMAL BELT. ON SUNDAY...DEVELOPING WEAK               
NORTHERLY SURGE OF 10-15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO BREAK SFC            
AND MID LAYER INVERSIONS PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR                 
TEMPS TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE TODAYS READINGS...MAINLY ACROSS THE                
EASTERN PLAINS...DESPITE SLOW COOLING ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE GONE            
IN BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS LIKELY             
BEING REACHED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING               
TEMPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...WITH THE SLIGHT COOLING               
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. MAIN CHANGE OUT            
WEST AS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF               
THE CENTRAL MTS...AS LATEST MODEL XSECTIONS INDICATING VERY LITTLE              
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A FEW FLURRIES AT            
BEST AT MT TOPS. -MW                                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)                                            
UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH               
700 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 2-4C RANGE. ONLY WEAK SURFACE                     
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM                     
CLIMBING TOO MUCH...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS ON THE PLAINS WILL CREEP                 
INTO THE 60S BOTH DAYS. UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON                 
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...MAINLY                 
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST              
OF LOW POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SPREADING EASTWARD                
IN THE EVENING LOOKS FINE...WITH EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS                   
STAYING FAIRLY WARM AND DRY. INITIAL UPPER LOW LOOKS TO EJECT                   
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS JUST SLIGHTLY                
FASTER THAN ECMWF SOLUTION BY THE TIME THE LOW EJECTS INTO THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. TODAY`S RUNS HAVE SHIFTED BACK                   
NORTH WITH THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH BOTH MODELS                  
NOW HINTING AT MODEST DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS LOW AND               
MID LEVEL FLOW NEVER DEVELOPS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. STILL WAY TOO              
EARLY TO TELL WHICH WAY TO LEAN...SO WILL UP POPS OVER MOUNTAIN                 
ZONES BUT MAINTAIN JUST LOW END SCATTERED MENTION OVER LOWER                    
ELEVATIONS. NOT MUCH COLD AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE                       
AREA...SO PRECIP ON THE PLAINS COULD STAY RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS                
THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGEOVER THURSDAY EVENING. MIGHT SEE SLIGHTLY                 
BETTER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN                  
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS POST FRONTAL FLOW                
TURNS NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. SERIOUS DIFFERENCES               
BETWEEN MODELS AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING                      
EVOLUTION OF THE SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST DURING NEXT                
WEEKEND LEAD TO A BROADBRUSH OF COOL TEMPS AND LOW POPS...AS                    
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE A DRY                      
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY                       
MORNING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH IN ITS WAKE. -MW                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
410 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IN NEXT 24 HOURS...               
CURRENTLY...CLEAR...CALM...AND CHILLY EARLY MORNING FOR MOST                    
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL                 
UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL               
ROCKIES. WEAK FEATURE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH                
CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST-EASTWARD. ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND IS OVER               
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS/PASSES PER HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SITES. MONARCH PASS IS          
BLOWING AROUND 33KTS SUSTAINED AND PIKES PEAK IS 25-35 MPH WITH GUST            
AROUND 60 MPH.                                                                  
TODAY...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGES ALOFT...SO WOULD                    
ANTICIPATE A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED            
TO YESTERDAY. SOME AREAS...LIKE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MIGHT BE A                
TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF          
SUNSHINE...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS             
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A                    
CHALLENGING FOR LOW LYING AREAS LIKE PUEBLO AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY             
CENTER FLOOR. AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES DIDN`T WARM               
MUCH AT ALS AND PUB. THE SAME COULD OCCUR TODAY. 12KM NAM-WRF                   
KEEPS THE SURFACE WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND DOESN`T ACTUALLY                   
FULLY MIX OUT TO ITS POTENTIAL AT THESE LOCATIONS. 700MB WINDS                  
PROJECTED TO BE BE AROUND 20KT OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND ONLY 10KTS                 
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WENT ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS AT PUB               
AND ALS TODAY.                                                                  
TONIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FOR THE LOW LYING            
AREAS LIKE THE AR RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTER FLOOR.                
WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW MOS AT ALS...PUB...LHX...AND LAA. THE               
NEW NAM MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING A LITTLE BETTER DURING THESE STRONG             
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS. THERE MIGHT BE SOME CI CLOUDS...SO                  
HOPEFULLY THAT DOESN`T TEMPER THE COOLING TOO MUCH. METZE                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...                    
MAIN WEATHER OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON AND AROUND THE              
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BEFORE THEN...PATTERN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL.            
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NE CO ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS                  
LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO MIGHT                
ACTUALLY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES OVR THE NRN MTS....AROUND KLXV. HAVE              
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THE MTS...BUT LIKELY WILL ONLY AMT TO                   
FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. HAVE ALSO COOLED THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR               
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPS ALOFT LOOKING A BIT LOWER. THE UPPER               
RIDGE WILL REBUILD MON AND TUE...AND TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE 10 DEG OR              
SO HIGHER THAN AVG FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.                    
BIG CHANGES IN THE WX BEGIN ON WED...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN                
BRANCH OF THE JET TAKES SHAPE OVR SRN CA OR BAJA REGION. THIS FEATURE           
WILL PHASE WITH A STRONG NRN BRANCH ON WED...AND THEN FOLLOW THE                
JET THRU THE SRN ROCKIES ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD          
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE STRENGTH AND THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.               
THE TREND IS FOR A SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST               
IMPACTS FOR SE CO FOR LATE THU INTO FRI. IF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS               
VERIFY...EVEN THE CENTRAL MTS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP UNTIL THU MORNING.         
DGEX IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT                     
SNOWFALL FOR THE MTS AND PLAINS BY FRI. GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE                  
CONSERVATIVE. EC AND CANADIAN ARE A COMPROMISE. WITH THE STRONG                 
SRN BRANCH OF THE JET...THE MORE SRN TRACK SEEN IN THE DGEX                     
SOLUTION HAS SOME APPEAL...ALTHOUGH QPF MAY BE A BIT EXCESSIVE IN               
THAT MODEL. BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT                    
WINTER WX FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THU THRU FRI. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS                  
SHOULD PLAN FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CHANGE OR                 
MODIFY PLANS ACCORDINGLY. IN GRIDS...CURRENTLY HAVE PRECIP                      
STARTING AS RAIN OVR THE PLAINS ON THU...BUT WOULD NOT BE                       
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE DAYS                
TO PIN DOWN IF THIS IS GOING TO END UP AS A MINOR NUISANCE OR                   
MAJOR EVENT...SO AS ALWAYS STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ROSE              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...VFR CLEAR BELOW 12K FT MSL WILL BE THE              
RULE FOR ALL AVIATION TERMINAL POINTS. METZE                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/44                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
831 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING OUR                    
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS TO MODERATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP               
TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY...AND THEN REFORM OVER OUR REGION BY                      
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX WHICH COULD IMPACT                 
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
AS OF 830 PM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE               
REGION FROM THE W...IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PASSING                  
THROUGH...AS WELL AS INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM                                
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RUC13 DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE RATHER               
WELL...ESP AROUND 700 MB...AND ALSO INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED               
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/E WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
THUS...WE HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING              
HOURS...AND ALSO HAVE SLOWED THE TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPS                 
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE THICKEST MID              
LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. THE TEMPS SHOULD ACCELERATE DOWNWARD ONCE            
AGAIN JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AS SOME BREAKS DEVELOP...ESP FROM                
ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST. THEREFORE...WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED             
MIN TEMPS MUCH...JUST THE TEMP CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                  
OTHERWISE...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS             
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW HAMILTON COS OVER THE NEXT FEW                     
HOURS...AS LATEST KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK                        
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW                
CONTINUES TO BACK...AND MID LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHES...SO SHOULD                
THREAT OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                          
UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                 
WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WARM                 
ADVECTION...SO EVEN WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH                 
THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S                
FOR HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND                         
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION SPREADING              
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM MOST SOURCES OF                       
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY COULD                
SEE MOSTLY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
HUDSON VALLEY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/MIX BEFORE CHANGING              
TO A COLD RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RAPID WARMING ALOFT...SOME              
AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND                          
SUNRISE...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN RESPOND TO THE WARM                   
ADVECTION LATER IN THE MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENS                 
AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE A DECENT PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS                
WELL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S...AND MAY                 
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND                          
TEMPERATURES FALL A BIT TOWARD WET BULBS...THEN COULD RISE A                    
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE.                                              
     ...........                                                                
ADDED AT 434 PM...                                                              
TEXT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NORNING WILL INDICATE                
QUITE THE MIX AND TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN SOME                     
AREAS...BUT VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT                   
DIFFERENT ELEVATION LEVELS...AND BE CHANGABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND             
MORNING.  COLD GROUND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO OBSERVATIONS OF FREEZING              
RAIN AS WELL.  SUGGESTING 2-4" OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE ADIRONDACKS               
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND 3-6" IN OTHER PARTS OF THE                           
ADIRONDACKS...JUST AS A STARTING POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY              
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                
     ...........                                                                
ON TUESDAY...SCREAMING H8 JET BLASTS QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND                
AND HEADS INTO CANADA BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE              
STRONG WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGHER             
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES SHOULD SEE SOME                
HIGH WIND GUSTS...AND MAY ENTERTAIN WIND ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT                
GETS CLOSER. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND                 
ADIRONDACKS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL MIXING WITH RAIN...AND HIGHS IN               
THE MID 30S. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A COLD RAIN TUESDAY                
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                         
THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION LATER               
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ANOMALIES (-4 SD TO -6 SD U WIND                
ANOMALIES AT 850 MB AND -2.5 SD TO -3.5 SD AT 250 MB) STILL                     
SUGGEST A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH STRONG FORCING FOR A PROLONGED                
PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO LIFT               
THE UPPER LOW INTO CANADA FAIRLY QUICKLY. STRONGEST FORCING NOW                 
LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.                  
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS SOME SIMILAR                   
HISTORICAL STORMS...AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ATLANTIC AS                 
GULF OF MEXICO LARGELY CUT OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH UPPER                
JET AND MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ALOFT. SO THIS STORM MAY HAVE MUCH                  
MORE OF AN IMPACT OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL                         
RESPECTABLE SNOWS SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN                
OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                              
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO                      
CANADA...DEEP WEST FLOW TAKES OVER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE                  
LIMITED TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.              
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW SUGGESTS KEEPING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS                
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH                  
BEST CHANCES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK                 
VALLEY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MID 20S IN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND OR A                  
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30S MOUNTAINS AND              
AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
SIDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE.  THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE              
ECMWF AT LIFTING THE VERTICALLY STACKED THANKSGIVING STORM OUT OF               
THE AREA...BUT BOTH TRACK IT UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST AT A FAIRLY               
GOOD CLIP BY FRIDAY.  THE SYNOPTIC EVENT WILL BE OVER WITH AT THE               
START OF THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT LAKE EFFECT WILL COMMENCE ON ITS                
HEELS...AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE ENSUING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE             
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOW ON SHEAR COMPARED WITH                      
SATURDAY`S MODELS.  THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY                   
WELL-CONFINED BAND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...            
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE                  
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS DOWN...AS DOES            
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                                      
FOR NOW...HAVE CHC THROUGH MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS PORTION OF OUR               
CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT WED...WITH CHC ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST CWA DURING            
THE HEIGHT OF TURKEY DAY...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LIKELY BE ALL                  
THAT`S HAD AT MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE BELT.  THE WEAKENING COLD              
FRONT MAY SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE                      
WELL-MOISTENED ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE CHC MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF               
THE CAPITAL REGION FRI AND FRI NGT...CHIEFLY UPSLOPE REGIONS                    
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST              
TO THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN UP THE COAST.  BOTH MODELS HAVE IT NEAR                
CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CIRCULATION PATTERNS BETWEEN             
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB...SO HAVE CHC -RA/-SN SAT NGT...THEN BACK TO             
A LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR SUNDAY.                                                  
TEMPERATURES SHOW LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN PATTERN UNTIL                  
SUNDAY...WHEN THE DEPARTING LOW DRAWS IN MORE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE             
CWA.  MERCURIES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING TO 40 DEGREES EACH               
DAY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME ADIRONDACK                 
UPPER TEENS EACH NIGHT BECOME LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 20 SUNDAY NIGHT...             
WITH SOME LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE MEX MOS VALUES              
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FCST VALUES...WITH THE MODEL EFFECTIVELY                
RECOGNIZING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/TUE. A PERIOD OF               
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE DAWN                   
HOURS...AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT JUST            
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUE MORNING THROUGH MID                       
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLOUDS RAPIDLY THICKEN FROM SW TO NE AFTER                   
22Z/MON.                                                                        
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE S TO SW OVERNIGHT AT                
LESS THAN 5 KT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON                  
MON...TO 5-10 KT...BECOMING STRONGER AFTER 00Z/TUE.                             
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA...CHC -SN. LLWS POSS.                             
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY               
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.                           
A COMPLEX STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE              
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TAKING THE                
FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW                    
SHOWERS. MIXED PCPN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY               
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAINLY RAIN IN             
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND ABOUT 50-50 MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST            
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.                                                           
MANY AREAS COULD SEE COULD SEE A TOTAL OF A HALF TO THREE                       
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN BY LATE                      
TUESDAY. SOME PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES                  
COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL...AN INCH OR MORE.                           
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM                
ASIDE FROM PAVED AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE MAY BE BLOCKED BY PILES OF                
SNOW OR DEBRIS. HOWEVER A POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE STORM COULD                 
BRING MORE RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                        
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...NAS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS                                                              
SHORT TERM...NAS                                                                
LONG TERM...HELLER                                                              
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL                                                            
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
955 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...ON A MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS NEEDED THIS EVENING TO                  
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS, HOWEVER THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE BAY AND ATLANTIC       
ZONES. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS UNCHANGED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                    
REMAINS ON TARGET. /TINGLER                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC                  
ZONES REMAINING MARGINAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, AND INDEED                 
FOWEY HAS BEEN AT 20 TO 23 KNOTS THIS EVENING FOR THE PAST FEW                  
HOURS. SO, HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND KEEP THE SCA GOING                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES. ADDED THE BAY                 
SINCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE MIAMI-               
DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS WILL THE ZONES MOST AFFECTED SINCE              
THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER ALSO KEPT THE PALM BEACH          
WATERS IN AS WELL DUE TO A RECENT SHIP REPORT OF 20KTS. /TINGLER                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS                  
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING WINDS. ALL                 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                      
RESULTING ENE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...                 
WHICH MAY BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND BREEZE. AT                 
THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE NO LAND BREEZE AT PBI/FLL...AS EASTERLY               
FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT A PENETRATION THIS                
CLOSE TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND...WILL                
INDICATE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS               
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AT               
KAPF...WITH ESE FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                    
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CONDS OF FEW050/SCT070              
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ENOUGH THREAT FOR SHRA TO                 
INCLUDE VCSH ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.                                    
MANY THANKS TO ZMA CWSU FOR EXCELLENT THOUGHTS AND INPUT FOR THIS               
FORECAST.                                                                       
70/DD                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                 
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN OUR PREVAILING WINDS                
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH                 
BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT TOO BULLISH ON THIS. KEPT SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE                
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                     
MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS AGAIN ON THE LAND BREEZE AND               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.                  
GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE WRF DO NOT SHOW THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING                 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SO WE                   
BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR. THE NAM/WRF LOOK WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH                 
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND THEY START THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND                    
BREEZE EARLY ON BEFORE THE WINDS SURGE TAKES OVER SWITCHING WINDS               
BACK NE. SINCE THIS SURGE LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO                      
DISCOUNT THIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS                  
AGAIN EXPECTED IN A STILL RATHER DRY AIRMASS...DECIDED TO BRING                 
THE LAND BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COAST...REASON BEING THAT IT MADE                
IT TO THE COAST JUST FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING...AND ANY SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN THE NE-E WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD HOLD IT AT BAY. SHOULD                
MENTION THAT THE RUC IS ACTUALLY FOLLOWING RIGHT ALONG WITH OUR                 
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THE FCST ON THE LAND BREEZE               
HAS IS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...AS IT CAN FLUCTUATE 5-10F DEGREES                
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW                      
MORNING`S.                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MON NIGHT LOOKS              
TO BE MOST OPTIMAL...AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                             
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING BY ON                 
TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS WARM FINALLY TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. THE DRY NOVEMBER WEATHER                  
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING                
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE                  
MODEL...AND JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THE              
PARADE OF FRONTS LOOK TO CONTINUE.                                              
MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE                     
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS GULF STREAM SEAS WILL                 
LIKELY NOT START SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO              
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A MORE NE DIRECTION BEFORE                 
BECOMING EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NEXT                
FEW DAYS WILL SLACKEN LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. THE               
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SWITCHING                
WINDS TO W-NW...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A BRIEF WIND SURGE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND IT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT AND NOT                
TOO PROLONGED.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE BEEN DOWN AGAIN TO NEAR 40 PERCENT AS                  
SOME DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST A TAD                  
ON MONDAY. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL               
TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT               
IN CRITICAL RH`S. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BECAUSE TUE WILL              
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND IF MORE DRYING OCCURS BETWEEN              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...THEN RH`S COULD              
FALL LOWER THAN FCST. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE                  
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED DEW POINTS/RH`S                     
DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME...WHICH DROPS DEW              
POINTS TO THE LOWER 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S SE. WE LIKELY              
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN COMING FCSTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  62  75  60  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  62  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            62  77  62  80 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           56  76  61  77 / -  10 10 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ650-              
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
720 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS                  
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING WINDS. ALL                 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                      
RESULTING ENE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...                 
WHICH MAY BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND BREEZE. AT                 
THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE NO LAND BREEZE AT PBI/FLL...AS EASTERLY               
FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT A PENETRATION THIS                
CLOSE TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND...WILL                
INDICATE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS               
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AT               
KAPF...WITH ESE FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                    
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CONDS OF FEW050/SCT070              
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ENOUGH THREAT FOR SHRA TO                 
INCLUDE VCSH ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.                                    
MANY THANKS TO ZMA CWSU FOR EXCELLENT THOUGHTS AND INPUT FOR THIS               
FORECAST.                                                                       
70/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                 
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN OUR PREVAILING WINDS                
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH                 
BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT TOO BULLISH ON THIS. KEPT SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE                
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                     
MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS AGAIN ON THE LAND BREEZE AND               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.                  
GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE WRF DO NOT SHOW THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING                 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SO WE                   
BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR. THE NAM/WRF LOOK WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH                 
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND THEY START THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND                    
BREEZE EARLY ON BEFORE THE WINDS SURGE TAKES OVER SWITCHING WINDS               
BACK NE. SINCE THIS SURGE LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO                      
DISCOUNT THIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS                  
AGAIN EXPECTED IN A STILL RATHER DRY AIRMASS...DECIDED TO BRING                 
THE LAND BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COAST...REASON BEING THAT IT MADE                
IT TO THE COAST JUST FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING...AND ANY SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN THE NE-E WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD HOLD IT AT BAY. SHOULD                
MENTION THAT THE RUC IS ACTUALLY FOLLOWING RIGHT ALONG WITH OUR                 
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THE FCST ON THE LAND BREEZE               
HAS IS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...AS IT CAN FLUCTUATE 5-10F DEGREES                
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW                      
MORNING`S.                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MON NIGHT LOOKS              
TO BE MOST OPTIMAL...AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                             
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING BY ON                 
TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS WARM FINALLY TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. THE DRY NOVEMBER WEATHER                  
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING                
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE                  
MODEL...AND JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THE              
PARADE OF FRONTS LOOK TO CONTINUE.                                              
MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE                     
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS GULF STREAM SEAS WILL                 
LIKELY NOT START SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO              
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A MORE NE DIRECTION BEFORE                 
BECOMING EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NEXT                
FEW DAYS WILL SLACKEN LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. THE               
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SWITCHING                
WINDS TO W-NW...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A BRIEF WIND SURGE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND IT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT AND NOT                
TOO PROLONGED.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE BEEN DOWN AGAIN TO NEAR 40 PERCENT AS                  
SOME DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST A TAD                  
ON MONDAY. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL               
TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT               
IN CRITICAL RH`S. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BECAUSE TUE WILL              
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND IF MORE DRYING OCCURS BETWEEN              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...THEN RH`S COULD              
FALL LOWER THAN FCST. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE                  
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED DEW POINTS/RH`S                     
DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME...WHICH DROPS DEW              
POINTS TO THE LOWER 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S SE. WE LIKELY              
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN COMING FCSTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  62  75  60  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  62  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            62  77  62  80 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           56  76  61  77 / -  10 10 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-              
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...04/AT                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER                   
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON.                  
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS SPINNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND OVER               
EASTERN QUEBEC REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM. THIS FLOW DIVES INTO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE                 
FIRST MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THE FLOW THEN BRIEFLY RIDGES UP THROUGH              
THE GREAT LAKES STATES BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC              
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN                   
CANADA. ABUNDANT SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE IS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY                 
CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN                
PLAINS. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL THE EVOLUTION              
OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT                       
AMPLIFIES INTO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.                                    
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA              
COAST SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE GRADIENT RELAXED             
AND OUR WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A               
MID-LEVEL AC DECK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS                  
MORNING RESULTED FROM AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                 
BELOW 10KFT ARCHING FROM SOUTHERN LA ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL. THIS AC             
DECK HAS BROKEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE SUNRISE AND RETREATED BACK TO            
OUR FAR WESTERN SE AL ZONES AS THE BEST UPGLIDE FROM THIS MORNING               
HAS WEAKENED AND DRIFTED FURTHER NORTH. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY             
SKIES NOW IN CONTROL REGION-WIDE TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO THE             
LOWER 60S NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SOUTH.                            
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER            
IT WILL BE WEAKENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE              
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS              
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE             
WEST SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN HAS BEEN                   
EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. IN FACT LOW TEMPERATURES                   
TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS            
WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY TO            
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.                                                          
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY                     
CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DIVE SOUTHEAST. THIS ENERGY WILL BE              
RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL                 
CANADA TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE MS VALLEY            
BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS                
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY TO CONSOLIDATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES               
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE TRAILING COLD            
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT                 
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RAIN CHANCES IN THE              
FORM OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS             
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF              
THE SHOWERS OVER THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE              
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST WILL SEE                   
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AFTER SOME MORNING SUN. COOLEST               
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
WHERE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTHEAST THERE               
WILL BE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND TEMPS                
AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOLER POCKET DOWN                
ALONG THE FRANKLIN COUNTY COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS COOLER AIR              
OFF THE SHELF WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY.                                          
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY                
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS               
SHEARED RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A               
WEAK BAND OF DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC LIFT CROSSING THROUGH. MAIN                    
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MUCH FURTHER TO THE                 
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN GA...THE CAROLINAS...AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.             
GFS/NAM ALSO SHOWING A RATHER THIN MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST A                     
WEAKENING AND THINNING BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG             
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN FACT ANY THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY TO BE              
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...AND MAINLY                   
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED             
TO THE COASTAL WATERS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.            
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY RANGE) ARE ACROSS THE              
WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN TAPER TO CHANCE POPS AFTER               
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE BAND REACHES THE SUWANNEE RIVER                
VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY...THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MAY BE                     
ESPECIALLY BRIEF IN NATURE WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.                       
ANY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL END EARLY                
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL TAKE CONTROL EARLY AND THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO             
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AROUND            
60 NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSE              
PROXIMITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE...THE STAGE             
SEEM SET FOR ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT. COLDER                   
INTERIOR SPOTS...ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FREEZING                
WITH AREAS OF FROST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE U.S....AND                 
ANOTHER COLD AND DRY CANADIAN SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWA            
FOR WED AND THU...AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT PORTIONS             
OF THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE ON WED AND THU            
MORNINGS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE SE U.S.                     
COASTLINE ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH              
FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK A BIT               
MORE POTENT WITH TIME...AND ALTHOUGH WE KEPT JUST SHOWERS IN THE                
GRIDS ON LAST NIGHT`S PACKAGE ...THIS LOW MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH                  
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH TO ALLOW SCT TSTMS TO            
BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 12 UTC             
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW SOLUTION WITH THIS                    
EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAS A WEAKER SFC SYSTEM AND LAGS THE COLD                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THE MORE              
CONTIGUOUS GFS EVOLUTION LOOKS BETTER AT THIS TIME...SO AM HOPING               
THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF CONVERGES TOWARDS THIS PREFERRED                    
SOLUTION. IF NOT...WE`LL RESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE SOME END OF SHIFT            
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE RIDGE WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A             
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON            
AND CROSSING THE FORECAST WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY                 
MORNING. EXPECT A SHARP SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH AND                
INCREASE IN SPEED TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.            
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE               
DAY TUESDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL               
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM                 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...              
WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KT). BRIEF PERIODS             
OF CIGS OF 5-10K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDHN AND KABY THIS                      
AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT            
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AT KDHN UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE             
THAT PORTIONS OF OUR FL ZONES COULD GET RED FLAG CONDITIONS TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL WAIT ON ISSUING A WATCH GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN             
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS CAN BE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  41  70  48  65  32 /   0  10  50  10   0                           
PANAMA CITY  49  69  51  65  40 /   0  20  60  10   0                           
DOTHAN       44  65  44  63  34 /   0  50  60   0   0                           
ALBANY       40  67  44  62  30 /   0  30  60   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     39  70  46  65  33 /   0  10  40  10   0                           
CROSS CITY   40  72  53  70  33 /   0   0  20  30   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM...GOULD                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN OUR PREVAILING WINDS                
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH                 
BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT TOO BULLISH ON THIS. KEPT SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE                
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                     
MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS AGAIN ON THE LAND BREEZE AND               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.                  
GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE WRF DO NOT SHOW THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING                 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SO WE                   
BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR. THE NAM/WRF LOOK WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH                 
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND THEY START THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND                    
BREEZE EARLY ON BEFORE THE WINDS SURGE TAKES OVER SWITCHING WINDS               
BACK NE. SINCE THIS SURGE LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO                      
DISCOUNT THIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS                  
AGAIN EXPECTED IN A STILL RATHER DRY AIRMASS...DECIDED TO BRING                 
THE LAND BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COAST...REASON BEING THAT IT MADE                
IT TO THE COAST JUST FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING...AND ANY SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN THE NE-E WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD HOLD IT AT BAY. SHOULD                
MENTION THAT THE RUC IS ACTUALLY FOLLOWING RIGHT ALONG WITH OUR                 
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THE FCST ON THE LAND BREEZE               
HAS IS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...AS IT CAN FLUCTUATE 5-10F DEGREES                
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW                      
MORNING`S.                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MON NIGHT LOOKS              
TO BE MOST OPTIMAL...AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                             
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING BY ON                 
TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS WARM FINALLY TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. THE DRY NOVEMBER WEATHER                  
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING                
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE                  
MODEL...AND JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THE              
PARADE OF FRONTS LOOK TO CONTINUE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE                    
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS GULF STREAM SEAS WILL                 
LIKELY NOT START SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO              
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A MORE NE DIRECTION BEFORE                 
BECOMING EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NEXT                
FEW DAYS WILL SLACKEN LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. THE               
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SWITCHING                
WINDS TO W-NW...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A BRIEF WIND SURGE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND IT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT AND NOT                
TOO PROLONGED.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE BEEN DOWN AGAIN TO NEAR 40 PERCENT AS                 
SOME DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST A TAD ON               
MONDAY. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL                  
TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT               
IN CRITICAL RH`S. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BECAUSE TUE WILL              
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND IF MORE DRYING OCCURS BETWEEN              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...THEN RH`S COULD              
FALL LOWER THAN FCST. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE                  
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED DEWPOINTS/RH`S                      
DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME...WHICH DROPS                  
DEWPOINTS TO THE LOWER 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S SE. WE                  
LIKELY WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN COMING FCSTS.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  62  75  60  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  62  79 / 20 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            62  77  62  80 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           56  76  61  77 / -  10 10 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-              
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...57/DG                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
845 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...                                                         
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) 13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A               
RATHER COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING.             
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS SPINNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND OVER               
EASTERN QUEBEC ARE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THE NORTHERN            
STREAM. THIS FLOW DIVES INTO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE UPPER             
PLAINS STATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST MENTIONED              
UPPER LOW. THE FLOW THEN BRIEFLY RIDGES UP THROUGH THE UPPER                    
MS/VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TO THE                 
MID-ATLANTIC AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN              
UPPER LOW. ABUNDANT SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE IS ALSO SEEN ON WV                 
IMAGERY STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL THE               
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER PLAINS AS            
IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING MONDAY.                                  
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA              
COAST SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE GRADIENT RELAXED.            
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...                
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO              
MIDDLE 30S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION BEFORE INCREASING                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDED SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISRUPTED THE                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. THIS MID-LEVEL DECK IS RESULTING FROM A            
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST AND CHARACTERIZED BY A             
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-300K                
SURFACES. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE             
FALLING OUT OF THIS MID-LEVEL DECK OVER SE ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST                
GEORGIA...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 10 AND              
15 DEGREES...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REACHING              
THE SURFACE. GFS/NAM IS AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FEATURE SLOWLY                   
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY WHILE KEEPING THE RESULTING LIFT AND BEST             
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.                                    
WITH THE SUN NOW UP...TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AREA-WIDE. UNDER             
THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MID-LEVEL DECK OVER THE NW ZONES TEMPS              
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.                   
FURTHER SOUTHEAST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD             
EASILY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.                                          
SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER            
IT WILL BE WEAKENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY COMING AROUND TO             
THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY                 
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN               
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. IN FACT LOW                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE                 
COLDEST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST FROM             
FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24              
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE MARINE AREA. WINDS            
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN ROUGHLY THE 10 TO 15 KNOT            
RANGE ALTHOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER               
APALACHEE BAY TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3              
FOOT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS OVERNIGHT SHOULD            
SEE THE FLOW COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT                
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY CROSSING THE FORECAST                
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO              
THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND             
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BAND OF              
MID-LEVEL AC BETWEEN 6 AND 12KFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS                   
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER            
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS               
BAND OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FROM KDHN TO KABY AND ESPECIALLY THIS               
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS STILL IN PLACE...ANY              
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND              
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 1 TO 2 HR                    
DURATIONS OF RH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT IN WELL INLAND NORTH FLORIDA               
THIS AFTERNOON...CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY              
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCOMING DRY AIRMASS AND WINDY                 
CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  63  42  68  50  66 /   0   0  20  30  05                           
PANAMA CITY  63  48  68  54  65 /   0   0  40  40  05                           
DOTHAN       57  44  64  47  64 /   0   0  60  40   0                           
ALBANY       58  40  64  47  64 /   0   0  40  40   0                           
VALDOSTA     61  42  68  48  65 /   0   0  10  30  05                           
CROSS CITY   68  43  74  51  69 /   0   0  05  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD                                                            
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1026 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE                   
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A RIDGE AXIS                 
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. IR2 IMAGERY AND                          
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 10 KFT SHIFTING                 
SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AS A              
RESULT...WE DID AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS                    
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN                     
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED THE AREAS OF                  
FROST TO PATCHY OVER THESE AREAS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE                     
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THESE COUNTIES. THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS                 
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. KTLH                      
TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 49 TO 34 DEGREES OVER A TWO HOUR PERIOD                
THIS EVENING...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.               
THERE IS A DECENT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG                 
BEND AND TEMPERATURES AT PERRY AND CROSS CITY ARE STILL IN THE MID              
40S. THE RUC SHOWS THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWEST                   
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE                      
DECREASING TEMPERATURE RATE TO LEVEL OFF THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT                 
HOURS.                                                                          
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL                     
CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GOING CALM DURING THE               
PREDAWN HOURS. SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW                  
FEW-SCT CLOUDS TO REACH KVLD AND KTLH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH                      
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY                 
LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3-4KFT.                             
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...GIBBS                                                                  
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
629 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WELL...THIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BELOW-MENTIONED                      
SHORTWAVE IS COMING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. WILL SEND OUT               
AN UPDATE FOR BOTH SKY GRIDS AND MIN TEMPERATURE GRIDS. AM NOT                  
QUITE SURE HOW EXACTLY TO HANDLE MIN TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ALREADY                
DROPPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY BUT THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH ACCORDING TO                
BOTH THE RUC AND NAM12 SHOULD STAY IN A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA                
ALL NIGHT...WOULD INHIBIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT                
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED. TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV AND THE MET               
FROM EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH SOME NEW TEMPERATURE DATA...                      
HOPEFULLY IT ISN`T TOO MUCH OF A BUST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. DIDN`T                
DO MUCH ADJUSTING OF SOUTHERN ZONES AS IT`LL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE               
CLOUDS TO GET THERE AND BY THAT POINT THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP.                  
ALSO...RFW FOR TODAY EXPIRES IN A LITTLE OVER HALF AN HOUR...SO                 
WILL SEND THAT EXPIRATION STATEMENT SOON.                                       
TDP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008/                         
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD                 
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...THOUGH AS THE AIRMASS IS MODIFYING                
SOMEWHAT IT SHOULDN`T BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. NONETHELESS               
HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY WITH EITHER THE              
MAV OR FWC (AS A NOTE...FWC BEAT THE TAR OUT OF BOTH THE MAV AND                
MET LAST NIGHT). LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE              
FLOW ALOFT THAT MIGHT BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE                    
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT              
THIS BUT JUST THE MERE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE STIRRING UP SOME               
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE LACK OF COMPLETE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP US               
FROM BEING AS FRIGID AS LAST NIGHT.                                             
THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY AND WE                
GET SOME RETURN MOISTURE...NOT A WHOLE LOT THOUGH...TO THE REGION               
LATE ON SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY              
ON SUNDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. SHOULD WARM UP A                 
BIT DURING THE DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S                 
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...PUSHING 60 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.                           
MONDAY NIGHT STARTS GETTING TRICKY AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. CLOUD                 
COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT US FROM GETTING AS              
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND PRECIP SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO                       
NORTHWEST GEORGIA UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...AT LEAST IN                 
THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. IT IS                   
POSSIBLE...AS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS PACKAGE...               
THAT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OR SLEET IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY              
MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SO AM                
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD SLEET...HOWEVER IF THE PROFILE HUGS THE                 
FREEZING LINE ENOUGH OR IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH IT`S                    
POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. TOO EARLY TO TELL                
AND IN ANY CASE NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GROUND                   
TEMPS TOO WARM FOR NOW...BUT WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE                    
FORECAST WARRANTS.                                                              
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY                    
NIGHT. NOT SEEING A HUGE CHANCE OF WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY               
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING               
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP. BUT IF ANY PRECIP ENDS UP LINGERING                   
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THIS COULD CHANGE. HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR                 
NOW. OVERALL NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER...BUT WE`LL TAKE ANYTHING WE                 
CAN GET AT THIS POINT.                                                          
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
PRECIP LINGERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE                 
THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVES THROUGH. UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW                    
ENGLAND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS              
ANOTHER COOL HIGH MOVES INTO PLACE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF              
THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE                
INT HE WEEK AS A LEE LOW DEVELOPS...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY              
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS                
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER GOES. GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND A            
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN              
THE EXACT SOLUTION BUT THE PATTERN SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT               
WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA OVER THE               
WEEKEND.                                                                        
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING                 
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY AND               
MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA...BUT DRY                
AIR CONTINUES IN NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO              
A WARNING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...BUT CANCEL THE WATCH FOR               
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THOSE              
AREAS.                                                                          
TDP                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST SATL SHOWS A BLANKET OF HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING                
FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN              
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING TOOL SUGGEST CLOUDS IN THE OVC080 TO                  
OVC100 RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATL AREA BETWEEN 00-02Z. BOTH                   
NAM-WRF, NAM12 AND RUC13 ALL SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN              
LOWER A BIT TO AROUND BKN060 THROUGH 12Z...THEN LIKELY SCATTERED.               
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LIGHT SE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST            
PERIOD.  39                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          23  55  31  55  38 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
ATLANTA         29  55  39  56  40 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
BLAIRSVILLE     20  48  26  50  33 /   0   0  10  60  20                        
CARTERSVILLE    22  55  33  53  35 /   0   0  10  50  20                        
COLUMBUS        26  62  38  61  44 /   0   0   5  40  20                        
GAINESVILLE     25  52  35  51  39 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
MACON           24  58  34  64  42 /   0   0   5  40  20                        
ROME            23  55  32  54  39 /   0   0  10  50  20                        
PEACHTREE CITY  22  57  28  57  39 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
VIDALIA         25  58  32  66  39 /   0   0   0  20  20                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF                  
NORTH GEORGIA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
540 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD                 
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...THOUGH AS THE AIRMASS IS MODIFYING                
SOMEWHAT IT SHOULDN`T BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. NONETHELESS               
HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY WITH EITHER THE              
MAV OR FWC (AS A NOTE...FWC BEAT THE TAR OUT OF BOTH THE MAV AND                
MET LAST NIGHT). LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE              
FLOW ALOFT THAT MIGHT BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE                    
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT              
THIS BUT JUST THE MERE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE STIRRING UP SOME               
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE LACK OF COMPLETE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP US               
FROM BEING AS FRIGID AS LAST NIGHT.                                             
THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY AND WE                
GET SOME RETURN MOISTURE...NOT A WHOLE LOT THOUGH...TO THE REGION               
LATE ON SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY              
ON SUNDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. SHOULD WARM UP A                 
BIT DURING THE DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S                 
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...PUSHING 60 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.                           
MONDAY NIGHT STARTS GETTING TRICKY AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES. CLOUD                 
COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT US FROM GETTING AS              
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND PRECIP SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO                       
NORTHWEST GEORGIA UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...AT LEAST IN                 
THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. IT IS                   
POSSIBLE...AS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS PACKAGE...               
THAT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OR SLEET IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY              
MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SO AM                
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD SLEET...HOWEVER IF THE PROFILE HUGS THE                 
FREEZING LINE ENOUGH OR IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH IT`S                    
POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. TOO EARLY TO TELL                
AND IN ANY CASE NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GROUND                   
TEMPS TOO WARM FOR NOW...BUT WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE                    
FORECAST WARRANTS.                                                              
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY                    
NIGHT. NOT SEEING A HUGE CHANCE OF WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY               
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING               
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP. BUT IF ANY PRECIP ENDS UP LINGERING                   
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THIS COULD CHANGE. HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR                 
NOW. OVERALL NOT A HUGE RAIN MAKER...BUT WE`LL TAKE ANYTHING WE                 
CAN GET AT THIS POINT.                                                          
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
PRECIP LINGERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE                 
THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVES THROUGH. UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NEW                    
ENGLAND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS              
ANOTHER COOL HIGH MOVES INTO PLACE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF              
THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE                
INT HE WEEK AS A LEE LOW DEVELOPS...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY              
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS                
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER GOES. GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND A            
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN              
THE EXACT SOLUTION BUT THE PATTERN SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT               
WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA OVER THE               
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING                 
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY AND               
MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA...BUT DRY                
AIR CONTINUES IN NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO              
A WARNING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...BUT CANCEL THE WATCH FOR               
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THOSE              
AREAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST SATL SHOWS A BLANKET OF HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING                
FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN              
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING TOOL SUGGEST CLOUDS IN THE OVC080 TO                  
OVC100 RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATL AREA BETWEEN 00-02Z. BOTH                   
NAM-WRF, NAM12 AND RUC13 ALL SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN              
LOWER A BIT TO AROUND BKN060 THROUGH 12Z...THEN LIKELY SCATTERED.               
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LIGHT SE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST            
PERIOD.  39                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          23  55  31  55  38 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
ATLANTA         28  55  39  56  40 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
BLAIRSVILLE     19  48  26  50  33 /   0   0  10  60  20                        
CARTERSVILLE    20  55  33  53  35 /   0   0  10  50  20                        
COLUMBUS        26  62  38  61  44 /   0   0   5  40  20                        
GAINESVILLE     25  52  35  51  39 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
MACON           22  58  34  64  42 /   0   0   5  40  20                        
ROME            18  55  32  54  39 /   0   0  10  50  20                        
PEACHTREE CITY  20  57  28  57  39 /   0   0   5  50  20                        
VIDALIA         24  58  32  66  39 /   0   0   0  20  20                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTH AND               
CENTRAL GEORGIA.                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF                  
NORTH GEORGIA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
914 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT 15Z DENSE FOG WAS NEARLY CONTINUOUS IN THE SNAKE               
BASIN FROM ONO TO BETWEEN MUO AND JER.  12Z KBOI RAOB SHOWED THE                
CLASSIC SIGNATURE...FOG TOP ONLY NEAR 4000 FEET MSL AND BLUE SKY                
FAINTLY VISIBLE THROUGH IT.  RAOB SHOWED NW WINDS ALL THE WAY UP                
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO CONTINUE.  WE WILL STAY WITH OUR DENSE            
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z AFTER WHICH WE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT.                
FOG WILL RE-FORM TONIGHT BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SELY WHICH               
SHOULD KEEP IT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.  LESS FOG                   
EXPECTED MONDAY IN UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AS SE WINDS CONTINUE.                  
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE 40 DEGS IN THE FOGGIER                   
AREAS...WE WILL UPDATE COOLER. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD                
UNDER LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS REBUILT BEHIND YESTERDAY/S                
TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KBOI THIS MORNING. KBOI SOUNDING                
SHOWING TOP OF FOG LAYER AT ABOUT 1000 FEET AGL. AS OF 1600Z HINT OF            
BLUE SKY WAS VISIBLE ON NORTH SIDE OF RUNWAY. WITH WINDS NOT                    
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ANY IMPROVEMENT            
IN CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM SUN. AND GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE...80                    
PERCENT  CONFIDENT THAT VISIBILITY REMAINS LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH              
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 200FT AGL THROUGH 19Z. ONCE SE WIND DEVELOPS               
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR.                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGHOUT             
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY            
20Z. OTHER THAN FOG...FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT                   
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KBOI            
REMAINS VFR TONIGHT DUE TO STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS.                              
&&                                                                              
,PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...DENSE FOG IS THE MAIN FORECAST              
ISSUE THIS MORNING. AT 09Z...DENSE FOG EXTENDED FROM CALDWELL                   
THROUGH BOISE...MOUNTAIN HOME AND INTO JEROME. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING            
EAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS KEPT LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS              
IN THE VALLEY. THUS...FOG/STRATUS HAS SPREAD SE INTO THE WESTERN                
MAGIC VALLEY AND REMAINS OUT OF MOST OF THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.              
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE FEATURES SHOW GOOD                   
AGREEMENT WITH FOG/STRATUS SHIFTING DOWN THE VALLEY INTO LOWER                  
TREASURE VALLEY STARTING AT 18Z BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY AFTER 21Z.                
THIS IS BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH IS FORECASTS TO            
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SETUP A              
SE/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE VALLEY.                      
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST COAST SHOULD FURTHER            
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FOR LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER                   
TONIGHT. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF DRYING                
ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE            
DRY AIR DESCENDING TOWARDS THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 800 MB BY              
18Z WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION FOR THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS               
DECK. BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TO THE DENSE            
FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z TODAY. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY               
18Z MOVING INTO THE LOWER TREASURE. HAVE FORECAST STRATUS TO                    
DISSIPATE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DAY               
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SURFACE HIGH LOCATION AND VALLEY WINDS TO            
SEE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEEDS SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE               
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUIDANCE AS STRATUS/FOG WILL LIMIT              
SURFACE HEATING TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST             
WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD INCREASE              
TEMPS 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS HIGH. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY             
IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS                  
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH IN THE              
UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A             
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING               
THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT FIRST EARLY IN THE WEEK...A HIGH AMPLITUDE               
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY            
AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS             
UPPER RIDGE IN OUR AREA SPELLS INVERSION CONDITIONS BUT IT IS NOT               
EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LASTING EVENT WITH THE SPLIT AND NEW CLOSED               
LOW MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH SUCH A BLOCKY PATTERN                     
DEVELOPING ACROSS CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK...BELIEVE              
FEATURES WILL BE BOTH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AND BREAK DOWN. EVEN THOUGH              
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR A SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST...THERE ARE               
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW.             
GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION HAS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH IN THE CENTRAL                 
GREAT BASIN.  IMPLICATIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT NAM SOLUTION                 
WOULD BRING WET WEATHER AND TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS INTO OUR AREA FOR               
THE HOLIDAY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE REGION. A             
QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW ECMWF WOULD ALSO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK              
LIKE THE GFS. HAVE KEPT CLIMO POPS GOING IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO              
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS IMPORTANT LONG RANGE TRAVEL PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ016                 
        IDZ012-IDZ014.                                                          
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
DISCUSSION...LC                                                                 
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS                                                           
PREV LONG TERM....GS                                                            
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
314 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...DENSE FOG IS THE MAIN                      
FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING. AT 09Z...DENSE FOG EXTENDED FROM                   
CALDWELL THROUGH BOISE...MOUNTAIN HOME AND INTO JEROME. SURFACE                 
HIGH BUILDING EAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS KEPT LIGHT                
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE VALLEY. THUS...FOG/STRATUS HAS SPREAD SE                 
INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND REMAINS OUT OF MOST OF THE LOWER              
TREASURE VALLEY. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE                     
FEATURES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG/STRATUS SHIFTING DOWN THE                 
VALLEY INTO LOWER TREASURE VALLEY STARTING AT 18Z BEFORE LIFTING                
OUT BY AFTER 21Z. THIS IS BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH                
WHICH IS FORECASTS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO BY 18Z THIS                       
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SETUP A SE/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR                      
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE VALLEY. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                   
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST SHOULD FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FOR                  
LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. ALSO...MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF DRYING ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE                 
UPPER RIDGE. THE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR DESCENDING              
TOWARDS THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 800 MB BY 18Z WHICH IS A                  
GOOD INDICATION FOR THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS DECK. BASED ON               
THIS...WILL ADD THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY              
UNTIL 18Z TODAY. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 18Z MOVING                 
INTO THE LOWER TREASURE. HAVE FORECAST STRATUS TO DISSIPATE IN THE              
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE                
TO MONITOR SURFACE HIGH LOCATION AND VALLEY WINDS TO SEE IF DENSE               
FOG ADVISORY MAY NEEDS SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE LOWERED                    
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUIDANCE AS STRATUS/FOG WILL LIMIT SURFACE              
HEATING TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS               
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS              
2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS HIGH. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY IN                
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS                     
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH IN THE              
UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.                                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A            
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING               
THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT FIRST EARLY IN THE WEEK...A HIGH AMPLITUDE               
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY            
AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS             
UPPER RIDGE IN OUR AREA SPELLS INVERSION CONDITIONS BUT IT IS NOT               
EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LASTING EVENT WITH THE SPLIT AND NEW CLOSED               
LOW MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH SUCH A BLOCKY PATTERN                     
DEVELOPING ACROSS CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK...BELIEVE              
FEATURES WILL BE BOTH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AND BREAK DOWN. EVEN THOUGH              
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR A SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST...THERE ARE               
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW.             
GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION HAS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH IN THE CENTRAL                 
GREAT BASIN.  IMPLICATIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT NAM SOLUTION                 
WOULD BRING WET WEATHER AND TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS INTO OUR AREA FOR               
THE HOLIDAY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE REGION. A             
QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW ECMWF WOULD ALSO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK              
LIKE THE GFS. HAVE KEPT CLIMO POPS GOING IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO              
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS IMPORTANT LONG RANGE TRAVEL PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WEST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED            
UPSLOPE FOGGY AND LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFFECTING                
KBOI...KEUL AND KONO TERMINALS...WHILE A MORE LOW STRATUS DECK UNDER            
1000 FEET AFFECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND KJER AND KTWF. MOUNTAIN             
LOCATIONS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS             
BUT MAINLY CENTERED AROUND THE USUAL EARLY MORNING TIMES. STRONG                
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO              
AND IMPROVE MOST AREAS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER. LIGHT TO                 
MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ016.                
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ012-                
     IDZ014.                                                                    
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
SHORT TERM...JDS                                                                
LONG TERM....GS                                                                 
AVIATION.....GS                                                                 
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                              
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY NICE TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MILDER HIGHS           
IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES AND SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.               
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS WITH MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH                
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.                                      
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS LARGE 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS                  
THE MID AND SE ATLANTIC STATES. 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN              
MANITOBA HAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS              
BORDER TO WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COLD              
FRONT THEN EXTENDS INTO NW KS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING                    
NEARLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME               
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS BRUSHING AREAS MAINLY FROM I-74 NORTH. AFTER                 
ANOTHER CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH LOWS FROM 15 TO 25F TEMPS AT 10               
AM REBOUNDED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW                
TO MID 20S WITH SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL               
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS                
WERE ALONG THE NORTHERN MANITOBA/SASKETCHEWAN PROVINCE LINE AND                 
NEAR FAR NE QUEBEC WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC                     
STATES.                                                                         
12Z RUC13...NAM12 AND SREF MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE STANING NEAR               
THE MID ALANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE COLD FRONT                 
MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL WI/EASTERN IA AND CENTRAL MO BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT.           
MODELS KEEP CENTRAL/SE IL DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z/9 PM THIS                    
EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS               
EVENING. BRUNT OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS                
COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES CENTRAL IL FROM THE WEST              
BY DAWN MONDAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST               
SOME INCREASING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL               
INCREASE FROM THE WEST FROM MID EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. 850 MB            
TEMPS AROUND -2C EARLY THIS MORNING ELEVATE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4C BY              
SUNSET. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO                 
NEAR 50F WTIH MILDEST READINGS SW OF LINCOLN. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS                
OF 10 TO 15 MPH.                                                                
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS                  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT (06Z). THEN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR TO MVFR                  
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY                
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LARGE 1034 MB HIGH               
PRESSURE OVER VA...THE CAROLINAS AND GA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFF THE               
MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT OVER FAR                 
WESTERN MN INTO SE NEBRASKA AND NW KS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL              
FROM 10Z TO 14Z. THEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE MS                
VALLEY BY 18Z/MON. THIS TO KEEP MVFR BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS                  
OVER CENTRAL IL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON MORNING ALONG WITH                    
PATCHY DRIZZLE. FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM PIA AND BMI NORTH               
MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS                    
AFTERNOON ARE NEAR 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN WNW BEHIND A COLD                 
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO               
15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS AFTER 15Z/MON.                                   
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                               
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...                    
CENTERED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...EXERTING ITS                       
INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...LOW               
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO COME                 
TOGETHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS               
EVIDENT BETWEEN THESE TWO PRESSURE AREAS. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS SHORT              
WAVE WAS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...            
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE.                
NOT TOO MANY FORECAST CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOCAL                   
WEATHER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET BUT COOL. HOWEVER...THE                 
COMPLEX APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE DRIVING                
UPPER WAVES...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE                  
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                               
00Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT               
TO FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE GENERAL               
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS SPREAD EVIDENT IN THE               
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND                
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW               
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH              
THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE                
RIDGE ALOFT. AS THESE UPSTREAM FEATURES MOVE CLOSER BY LATER                    
TONIGHT...A QUICK SHOT OF RELATIVELY STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE LACKING...MAINLY BELOW 800 MB...SO               
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO BE MINIMAL.                                      
COLD FRONT AND DRIVING UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY                   
MONDAY...QUICKLY BRINGING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO                
AN END. SOUNDING PROFILES DRY OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO DO              
NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MONDAY. HOWEVER...             
IF ANY DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD FALL AS FLURRIES.                                 
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WILL CROSS              
THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS                
EXPECTED WITH THIS IMPULSE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A                
FEW FLURRIES AS THE ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF SWINGS THROUGH.                     
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...QUIET/COOL CONDITIONS              
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD                 
SUGGESTS THIS IS FAR FROM A FORGONE CONCLUSION. SOME DEGREE OF                  
TROFFING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST UNITED           
STATES...WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO                    
PROVIDE CHILLY AIR. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...ARRIVING ANYWHERE                  
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAY PHASE WITH THE EASTERN TROF OR                
LIFT ACROSS REGION IF TROFFING ENDS UP LIKE ONE OF THE WEAKER                   
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE                         
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PRECLUDES A MENTION OF                 
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                     
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1134 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                              
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK TODAY AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS          
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS A BIT TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO                      
OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THIS                     
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH SOUTH               
WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.                                                              
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP HAS STRONG 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                 
OVER EASTER KY/TN. WEAK 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER FAR SW MN.                
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER WI/IA AND SOUTHERN MN. BROKEN              
TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT COVERED IL AHEAD OF                  
THIS SHORT WAVE WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER THE                
WESTERN HALF OF IA FROM I-35 WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL IL                 
WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...WITH PONTIAC UP TO 36F. LOW               
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. SSE WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH WITH                 
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH NORTH OF I-70.                                          
12Z RUC...NAM AND SREF MODELS WEAKEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO                  
1035 MB AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNSET.                
DECENT UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHORT WAVE WEAKENS TO AS IT MOVES SE INTO               
WESTCENTRAL AND SW IL BY 00Z/6 PM...THEN OVER KY AND NE TN BY                   
06Z/MIDNIGHT. 12Z KILX/KDVN SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOW LEVELS                  
BELOW 600 TO 650 MB. MODELS THAT HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER IA                    
DISSIPATE IT BY THE TIME THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO IL DURING THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. BUT                     
CENTRAL IL IN FAVORABLE POSITION OF SHORT WAVE (LEFT OF TRACK) AND              
MAY STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL IL DURING MID                
AND LATE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH SUN TODAY BUT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS                  
AROUND MINUS 4C TODAY ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS SUPPORTS CURRENT                   
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES                   
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS                  
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF WI/IA WILL              
WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS                
INTIALLY FROM 8 TO 10K FT AND LOWER TO 5 TO 7K FT LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WEST OF              
I-57/CMI FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT STILL VFR VSBYS              
AND CEILINGS. SHORT WAVE EXITS INTO SOUTHERN IL...SW KY AND                     
NORTHERN TN BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED OUT AFTER                 
ITS PASSAGE...AT PIA AROUND 03Z AND CMI BY 07Z. WEAK UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE BUILDS INTO IL SUNDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS                 
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE                  
WILL STAY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING                 
SOUTH WINDS OVER IL. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS              
NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS                    
EVENING AND 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 14Z/SUN.                                         
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 257 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                               
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CHANCE AND TYPE OF PCPN TODAY                
AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY MODELS IN                    
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SITUATION AND ARE CONSISTENT AT              
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                        
NO REAL LONG TERM CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR TEMP FORECAST. LONG TERM                  
MODELS SEEM OK THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT THEN DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF              
THE WEEK. WILL LIKELY FOLLOW CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST AND LET                 
NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT LATER PERIODS.                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                         
CURRENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...LOCATED IN S.D. IS PRODUCING WAA CLOUD                 
COVER AHEAD OF IT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO ITS SOUTH. RETURNS              
SHOWING UP ON RADAR LOOPS...BUT THIS LIKELY JUST MID CLOUDS AND                 
NOT PCPN...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT FLURRIES. OTHER PCPN IS OCCURRING              
NEAR THE SFC LOW IN S.D. AND AHEAD OF IT IN MN AND NRN IOWA.                    
BOTH GFS AND NAM-WRF MODELS FORECAST THIS SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEAST              
TOWARD THE AREA AND WEAKEN...BUT BOTH STILL BRING A 500MB TROUGH                
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE GOOD                        
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE                 
DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 10. SO SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO PRODUCE                
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PCPN. ONLY NEGATIVE IS MODEL SOUNDINGS LACK                 
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS TIME OF YEAR              
WITH TEMPS COLD...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN STILL SQUEEZE OUT                  
PCPN DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE. SO ACCOUNT OF THIS AND THE LACK OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL INCLUDE FLURRIES IN FORECAST FOR THIS                 
MORNING AND THEN CHANGE TO SPRINKLES AS TEMP WARM UP BY THIS                    
AFTERNOON. WEAKENED SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER AND ANY PCPN WILL BE EAST              
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.                    
A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE                
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRSS TO THE SOUTHEAST                     
THROUGH TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT PLENTY OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT               
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DYNAMICS WILL BE INCREASING. TEMPS WILL                 
ALSO BE WARMING IN THE UPPER LEVELS SO MOST PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT                   
SHOULD START AS RAIN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THE                     
POSSIBILITY OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY                 
NIGHT IN THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH                  
WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.                         
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST...WRAP                    
AROUND CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY AND WITH AREA BEING IN CYCLONIC FLOW               
WILL HAVE TO KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS.              
THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN WORDING AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GET                      
INCLUDED IN LATER FORECAST. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS              
COLD HIGH PRSS BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THIS SYSTEM DEEPENING               
ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY. BUFKIT               
MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND               
30 MPH...SO WILL BE ADJUSTING WIND GUSTS GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.                 
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME TODAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW                
NORMAL. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED                   
SUNDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS              
WILL BE SEE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                      
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
COLD HIGH PRSS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING                
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE                 
WEEK. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF ILLINOIS THROUGH                
THURSDAY. SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE FLOW REMAINS               
OUT OF THE NORTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD A SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE                   
SOUTH THAT MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW               
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS...BUT WILL LET NEXT FORECAST SHIFT TAKE              
A LOOK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...DRY              
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW. MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS               
LOOK OK FOR TUE BUT THEN TOO LOW FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                   
AUTEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1215 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS            
AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES IOWA. A NARROW BAND OF SNOW MOVED ACROSS              
PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CHARLES             
CITY TO MARSHALLTOWN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO            
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. SNOW IS QUICKLY ENDING BEHIND THE BAND TO              
THE WEST IN A NARROW SUBSIDENCE AXIS...BUT FORCING WILL RETURN AFTER            
12Z IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE             
MORNING. THE NAM/RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER AND              
WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. THE HEAVIER            
SNOWS...AROUND A COUPLE INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE POCAHONTAS-FORT            
DODGE-SAC CITY AREAS...WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS            
ELSEWHERE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT LIFT             
IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND              
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS AREA IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY A                 
POSITIVE PV PRESSURE ADVECTION MAX THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY               
AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST BY LATE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY/...                                                  
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LOOSE ITS IDENTITY BY THIS EVENING                
WITH THE STATE REMAINING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH VERY DRY               
MID LEVELS IN PLACE. SOME STRATUS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY THIS                   
EVENING THOUGH IT SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL WARMER                
WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL             
BE CONVERGING ON CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL                 
ENTER NORTHWEST IOWA WITH AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. AT THE SAME             
TIME...A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WILL              
REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. A STRATUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY            
BE LIFTING NORTH ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE WITH A MOISTURE DEPTH OF               
AROUND 5 KFT. DECENT LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WOULD SUGGEST SOME                 
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD             
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE               
MOISTURE QUICKLY TO THE EAST ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE                 
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH RAIN             
OR SNOW. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND WET BULBS ABOVE 0 C              
THROUGH THE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEREFORE SNOW CHANCES              
WILL BE LIMITED.                                                                
NUMEROUS STRONG SYSTEMS PASSING SLOWING THROUGH THE FLOW NEXT WEEK.             
A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE             
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS             
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR SPILLING SOUTH. COULD                    
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON. FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS             
THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE              
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST. CURRENT FORECAST              
FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING STILL ON TRACK THOUGH            
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION              
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGE TO THE                    
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD YET AND EXPECT MODEL SOLUTIONS TO BECOME            
MODIFIED OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THIS HIGHLY              
ACTIVE PATTERN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/18Z                                                              
CLOSED UPR LOW MOVG THRU IA ATTM AND WILL BRING A BAND OF -SN/SN                
ACRS THE CNTRL INTO THE SERN COUNTIES...ALONG WITH SOME IFR/MVFR                
CIGS IN ITS WAKE.  WRMFNT LFGT NWD ACRS IA WILL REACH NRN TAF SITES             
BY LATE THIS EVE.  CONDS WILL BCM BFR FM SW-NE OVR NGT AS THE FRONT             
LFTS NWD.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MS NOV 08                                                 
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1109 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT ZFP/GRID UPDATE TO RAISE POPS FOR SNOW THIS AFTN OVER THE SOUTHWEST        
SECTIONS. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST IA DIVING E/SE.           
KDMX RADAR SHOWS DECENT AREA OF MOD/HVY SNOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL                
IA LATE THIS MORNING. BAND APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH RUC H7-H5 PVU           
WHICH IT WEAKENS BUT BRINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF CWA THIS               
AFTN EXITING BY EARLY EVE. MODELS TYPICALLY TRY AND WEAKEN SYSTEMS TOO          
QUICKLY AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE YET AGAIN... WITH 15Z RUC NOW             
MAINTAINING AROUND 40 UNIT VORT THROUGH 00Z AS IT DIVES E/SE INTO               
NORTHEAST MO. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING SITUATION WELL WITH                 
POPS IN GENERAL RANGE OF 5-20% AT SITES WHERE IT IS PRESENTLY SNOWING...        
AN INDICATION WEAKENING TOO QUICKLY. THEREFORE... HAVE BUMPED UP                
POPS TO MOD/HIGH CHC SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR           
AS FURTHER UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS WOULD BE REQUIRED IF SYSTEM MAINTAINS       
CURRENT STRENGTH. AIR TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND LATEST                
PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOW RANGE OF 35-43 DEGS IN THE SOUTH... THUS A LOT              
OF MELTING EXPECTED... WITH ANY ACCUMS DUE SOLELY TO RATE AND MAINLY ON         
GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS.                                                           
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
516 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SATELLITE SHOWS STCU DECK ADVECTION NORTHEAST ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL             
TROUGH WITH EMP AND UKL SHOWING CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT. FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RUC HAVE THESE CIGS BRIEFLY IN AT TOP AND            
FOE. BY 04Z THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING              
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME HIGH CIRRUS.              
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE            
MAINTAINING A DRY AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ON               
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../253 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                                 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AT 20Z LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING            
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE              
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND                    
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP              
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.  SHALLOW MOISTURE              
HAS ADVECTED INTO NORTHEASTERN KS...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY            
WELL DEFINED BY STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM EASTERN OK THROUGH                  
SOUTHEASTERN KS AND INTO CENTRAL MO.  H850 PROFILER WINDS REMAIN                
VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD                    
FRONT...SO BELIEVE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN                    
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE                    
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT              
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE             
BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD                      
FRONT...BUT THE COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODIFIED BY THE                
SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE              
LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                                                   
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS POTENT UPPR LVL TROF CONTS TO                  
DEEPEN OVR THE GREAT LAKES ON MON NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CDFNT WL SLIP              
SW FM ERN NEB AND NW MO INTO THE CWA. LITTLE SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED            
WITH THE FNT...BUT THIS SHLD LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT OVR THE ERN CWA             
AND TRIMMED TMPS BACK IN THIS AREA CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV                     
GUIDANCE. COOLING IS SHRT LIVED THOUGH AS UPPR TROF IS QUICK TO                 
SHIFT EWD AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WL BRING SWRLY            
LO LVL FLOW TO THE AREA AND A NICE WARM UP FOR MID WEEK. NAM/EC ARE             
WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH H85 TMPS...AND GIVEN MOSTLY SUNNY                      
SKIES...GOOD MIXING AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS...PREFER TO GO WARMER            
DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                             
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WL COME IN THE THUR/FRI TIME FRAME.               
LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE               
SOME NOTABLE TRENDS. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR OUR CWA DUE                
TO A STRONGER NRN STREAM INFLUENCE WITH THE UPPR LVL TROF OVR THE               
HUDSON BAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN THE CANADIAN...GEFS...AND                 
MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z EC IS ALSO                     
STRONGER WITH THIS NRN STRM INFLUENCE AND THUS DRIER. SINCE THE                 
UPSTRM ENERGY MOVG INTO THE WRN US LATE IN THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO              
FORCE A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPR AIR PATTERN...A STRONGER NRN                  
STRM INFLUENCE APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS WL GO MORE WITH THE GFS                 
MODEL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND START TO TREND DOWN                           
POPS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE NRN CWA. WL ALSO GO WITH AN ALL RAIN                  
EVENT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR UNTIL FRI INTO SAT.                      
ONCE SYSTEM MOVES BY...THE WEEKEND FORECAST ALSO HAS A SIGNIFICANT              
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINLY. IT APPEARS THE CWA SHLD BE MAINLY DRY                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN QUESTION. GIVEN              
THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE NRN STRM...WLD PREFER TO TREND DOWN               
TMPS OVR THE WEEKEND. THUS FORECAST WL REFLECT MEX OR SLIGHTLY                  
BELOW MEX NUMBERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                                             
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
938 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING IS TO POPS/WX/QPF. RADAR                  
MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF                    
HOUSTON/GALVESTON BAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NE AND BOTH              
RUC AND NAM APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH                      
INCREASING PRECIP OVER OUR SWRN ZONES AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS                
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SFC BECOMES MORE SWRLY.                     
LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
EVENING...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE              
TX ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF CAMERON. REMAINDER OF                
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. 24                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE IS TIMING OF                
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS...          
MUCH OF IT PROBABLY JUST VIRGA ATTM...OVER THE GULF OFF THE MIDDLE              
TEXAS COAST MOVING NWD. MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW PRECIP SPREADING OVER            
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST STARTING TOWARD 12Z...                     
ALTHOUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WETTER AND              
FASTER THAN THE NAM. THUS HAVE TIMED THE PREVAILING POPS IN THE                 
TAFS WITH THIS IN MIND. BUT UNTIL THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST                   
STUCK WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT              
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AS WINDS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PREVENTING              
FOG FORMATION.                                                                  
25                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...A RATHER MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS                
THE REGION. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WARMING                 
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S                       
NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20                
DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF 24 HOURS PRIOR. LOCAL RADAR INDICATING JUST               
A BIT OF VIRGA OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.                                          
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. LATEST MOS                  
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS/POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. WILL                 
HOWEVER MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP OMEGAS/LIFT ALSO              
ACCOMPANYING FRONT. SUFFICIENT SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT           
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS.                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN           
FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH APPEARS               
LIKELY PER LONG RANGE MODELS ON FRIDAY.                                         
AVIATION...OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON      
INTO THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT                 
WAVE PULLS EAST PAC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR BETWEEN                
THE SURFACE AND 10K FEET...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST              
SOME SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT                 
VFR LEVELS.                                                                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA. THESE                
WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES WITH GUIDANCE TIME                     
HEIGHTS SHOWING OVER 80 PERCENT RH BETWEEN THE SURFACE TO OVER 20K              
FEET BY 24/12Z. THIS WILL HELP LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN                 
3K-5K FEET WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15 AND                
20 KNOTS AND SOME LIFT SEEN BY PROGGED PVA IN THE LOW LEVELS...ANY              
FOG FORMATION WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.    
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 24/12Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST AS STRONGER LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAPS INTO               
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.                                                          
RUA                                                                             
MARINE...A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN              
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG                 
OFFSHORE FLOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  60  73  47  69  44 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
KBPT  62  74  46  70  44 /  30  70  10   0  10                                  
KAEX  58  69  42  67  40 /  20  70  10   0  10                                  
KLFT  58  71  48  66  43 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
240 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. A                
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPS              
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DEEP                 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW ENGLAND              
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE MID                   
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FAST-MOVING 100+ KT JET STREAK/RELATIVELY FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL                  
SHORTWAVE NOW STRETCHING FROM TN VLY OVR THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE              
COAST. AS EXPECTED...ONLY MID/UPPER LVL MSTR/CLDS ARE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS FEATURE AS DEEP WRLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A)                   
INHIBITING ANY GULF MOISTURE INFLUX AND B) CAUSING FURTHER LLVL                 
DRYING E OF THE MNTNS VIA DOWNSLOPE. LOW LEVELS (BLW 700 MB OR 10               
KFT) IN FACT ARE SO DRY PER LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS THAT IT WOULD BE                 
TOUGH TO EVEN GET A FLURRY OUT OF THIS FEATURE.                                 
UPDATED FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTN WITH STRONG                
DNVA AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. LLVL THICKNESS SCHEMES SHOW              
BOOST IN BNDRY LAYER TEMPS TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BTWN -2               
TO -4C THIS AFTN FROM S TO N. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO DOWN           
MID 40S FAR NE PTNS (LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO AROUND 50 SW PTNS                     
(SOUTH HILL-EMPORIA).                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER             
RETURN SRLY LLVL FLOW NEVER GETS A CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE AT THE                 
SFC OVERNIGHT AS CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS EARLY ON THIS EVENING WILL               
ALLOW FOR SFC LAYER DECOUPLING. SO...WHILE THE TEMPTATION IS THERE              
TO BOOST TEMPS A LITTLE OVER MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...HAVE STUCK                  
WITH A FCST FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MAV/MET MOS BLEND (I.E. 20S                       
INLAND... AROUND 30/LWR 30S ALONG THE SERN VA/NERN NC COAST).                   
CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHES THROUGH              
THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING.                 
THE GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF               
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER DYNAMICAL                   
SUPPORT/MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE NARROW...THE MODEL                 
ISENTROPIC SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT BECOMING                    
ENHANCED BY THE MOIST LLVL FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.                      
MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER                  
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE...DPVA...AND FRONTOLYTIC QS CONVERGENCE AND               
WAA DYNAMICS DEVELOPS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL              
CONSENSUS WITH THESE SIGNALS...FEEL CONFIDENT TO BOOST POPS ABOVE               
50% IN ALL AREAS...BEGINNING BY LATE MON AFTN OVER FAR WRN PTNS...              
DURING THE EVENING HRS IN ALL AREAS...AND THEN E TOWARD THE COAST               
LATE MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS W TO E. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE              
CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS...AS MODELS AGAIN SHOW              
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND THUS LIMITED CAPE POTENTIAL (SFC                
BASED OR ELEVATED). TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A              
BIT MON NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                               
FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES E ON TUE...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                 
NW FLOW CAA SURGE AND STRENGTHENING QVECTOR DIVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE)             
IN LOW-MID LEVELS. OUTSIDE OF SLIM LINGERING RAIN CHANCES EARLY                 
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE THRU WED.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
AND THURSDAY AND EXPECT A DRY THANKSGIVING. THE HIGH WILL THEN                  
WEAKEN AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT                
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF                
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT OVER AL/MS LATE                     
FRIDAY...THEN MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER OUR AREA ON                     
SATURDAY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT                    
INCREASING TO A CHANCE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO                
THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH               
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON NEXT SUNDAY.                  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED                 
PERIOD...NEAR 50 TO MID 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPR                
20S TO UPR 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL                   
WARM SLIGHTLY AS WINDS BECOME SW AND AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND               
PRECIP ARRIVES...LWR 30S TO LWR 40S FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MID 30S TO                
MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS/THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WITH            
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                  
WINDS REMAIN RATHER LGT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW BY LATE MONDAY                
MORNING INTO THE AFTN.                                                          
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS MONDAY EXPECT TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER...BRINGING       
A GOOD CHC FOR SHRAS AND A LKLY PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MON EVENING/NIGHT.          
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TWDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRNT               
PUSHES OFFSHORE...WITH BREEZY BUT DRIER WNW FLOW. GNLY VFR CONDITIONS           
WED/THU.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN                
SLIDE EAST OF THE WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES             
FROM THE NW. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN AREA              
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY               
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER                 
THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS                
AND SEAS INCREASING/BUILDING TO SCA LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL              
WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.                                                       
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE WATERS ON                     
TUESDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE SW. THUS SCA FLAGS ARE                  
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT EXTEND HEADLINES                   
BEYOND THE 3RD PERIOD FOR NOW PER LOCAL POLICY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR          
     ANZ630>633.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR              
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BKH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH/BAJ                                                             
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...LKB                                                                  
MARINE...JRL                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION                   
TODAY... THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES               
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY             
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL               
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH                       
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM              
THE WEST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FAST-MOVING 100+ KT JET STREAK/RELATIVELY FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL                  
SHORTWAVE NOW STRETCHING FROM TN VLY OVR THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE              
COAST. AS EXPECTED...ONLY MID/UPPER LVL MSTR/CLDS ARE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS FEATURE AS DEEP WRLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A)                   
INHIBITING ANY GULF MOISTURE INFLUX AND B) CAUSING FURTHER LLVL                 
DRYING E OF THE MNTNS VIA DOWNSLOPE. LOW LEVELS (BLW 700 MB OR 10               
KFT) IN FACT ARE SO DRY PER LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS THAT IT WOULD BE                 
TOUGH TO EVEN GET A FLURRY OUT OF THIS FEATURE.                                 
UPDATED FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTN WITH STRONG                
DNVA AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. LLVL THICKNESS SCHEMES SHOW              
BOOST IN BNDRY LAYER TEMPS TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BTWN -2               
TO -4C THIS AFTN FROM S TO N. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO DOWN           
MID 40S FAR NE PTNS (LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO AROUND 50 SW PTNS                     
(SOUTH HILL-EMPORIA).                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER             
RETURN SRLY LLVL FLOW NEVER GETS A CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE AT THE                 
SFC OVERNIGHT AS CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS EARLY ON THIS EVENING WILL               
ALLOW FOR SFC LAYER DECOUPLING. SO...WHILE THE TEMPTATION IS THERE              
TO BOOST TEMPS A LITTLE OVER MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...HAVE STUCK                  
WITH A FCST FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MAV/MET MOS BLEND (I.E. 20S INLAND...             
AROUND 30/LWR 30S ALONG THE SERN VA/NERN NC COAST).                             
CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHES THROUGH              
THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE MORNING.                 
THE GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF               
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER DYNAMICAL                   
SUPPORT/MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE NARROW...THE MODEL                 
ISENTROPIC SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT BECOMING                    
ENHANCED BY THE MOIST LLVL FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.                      
MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY QUICK BURST OF LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER                  
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE...DPVA...AND FRONTOLYTIC QS CONVERGENCE AND               
WAA DYNAMICS DEVELOPS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL              
CONSENSUS WITH THESE SIGNALS...FEEL CONFIDENT TO BOOST POPS ABOVE               
50% IN ALL AREAS...BEGINNING BY LATE MON AFTN OVER FAR WRN PTNS...              
DURING THE EVENING HRS IN ALL AREAS...AND THEN E TOWARD THE COAST               
LATE MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS W TO E. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE              
CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS...AS MODELS AGAIN SHOW              
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND THUS LIMITED CAPE POTENTIAL (SFC                
BASED OR ELEVATED). TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A              
BIT MON NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                               
FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES E ON TUE...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                 
NW FLOW CAA SURGE AND STRENGTHENING QVECTOR DIVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE)             
IN LOW-MID LEVELS. OUTSIDE OF SLIM LINGERING RAIN CHANCES EARLY                 
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AFTER CD FROPA TUESDAY...DEEP OCCLUDED LOW STALLS OVER PA/NY WED AND            
THU...DRIFTING N OVR QUEBEC THU NGHT INTO FRI. PRECIP TO REMAIN                 
ALONG APP RIDGES...THO OVER RUNNING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP SCT/BKN CLDS             
(ESP NRN ZONES) ON WED. THICKNESSES INCREASE WED THROUGH FRI AS LOW             
DRIFTS N AND HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W (ESP THU INTO FRI MRNG).                 
TEMPS GENERALLY FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORM...MAXES LWR 50S...MINS UPR              
20S. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WITH SFC LOW/FROPA ON SAT.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR CNDTNS THRU FCST PRD. MID LVL CLD DECK BTWN 9-12K FT OVRSPRDS               
TAF SITES THRU 12Z AS S/W PASSES OVR RGN. CLDS DECREASE THRU AM                 
HRS AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN. ONLY SCT SC ARND 5K FT XPCTD THIS AFTRN.             
WNDS BECOME NW AOB 12 KTS.                                                      
THE NEXT COLD FRNT APPRCHS FM THE W MONDAY NGT...BRINGING A CHC                 
FOR SHRAS AND A LKLY PERIOD MVFR CIGS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING               
BY ERY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL                  
WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.                   
PRES GRDNT BEGINS TO INCRS AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT MON AFTRN. LTST DATA             
SUGGESTS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WNDS INCRS TO SCA LVLS                     
ACROSS CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND DRNG AFTRN HRS...SO HAVE RAISED SCA               
FLAGS MON AFTRN AND CONT THRU MON NITE. SHUD TAKE A FEW MORE HRS                
FOR CNDTNS TO REACH SCA ACROSS CSTL WTRS...SO WON`T START SCA`S                 
THERE UNTIL THE 4TH PRD. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE XTNDD INTO TUE AND                
TUE NITE AS W WNDS REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO LOW PRS MOVG INTO NRN NEW                
ENGLAND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR          
     ANZ630>633.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR              
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BKH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH/BAJ                                                             
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...BAJ                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...JRL/MPR                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1220 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 408 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT            
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S....WHICH              
THEN SLOWS DOWN IN SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHERE A FAIRLY              
DEEP TROUGH EXISTS. WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THERE ARE TWO                 
SHRTWV TROUGHS TO NOTE...ONE OVER IDAHO AND A SECOND MORE WRAPPED UP            
ONE CROSSING NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A THIRD...BUT MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV IS              
MAKING ITS WAY SE INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN               
UPPER RIDGE BEING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE SRN CANADA SHRTWV TROUGH.               
THIS WEAK SHRTWV IS NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT BESIDES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS            
CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA...DUE TO DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR SEEN ON              
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND GRB. THIS DRY AIR AND SOME CLEAR                 
SKIES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...               
ALLOWED LOCATIONS IN DELTA COUNTY TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE               
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST...ALLOWING RETURN                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING READINGS BACK UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO            
BRINGING SOME STRATUS WITH IT...NOW COVERING ALL OF MN INTO WRN WI              
AND WRN UPPER MI. 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS THE STRATUS WITH A                     
SATURATED LAYER BTWN 800-925MB...WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUNDING IS              
DRY. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EVEN OCCURRED AT GFK AT 03Z...BUT NO                 
OTHER FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED. OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION                
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN CENTRAL CANADA IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH PCPN.               
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION ARE DEFINITELY WARMER THAN            
THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE CWA...3C AT BIS AND 1C AT CYQD...COMPARED TO            
-8C AT CWPL AND -7C AT APX. FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE OTHER                  
SHRTWV TROUGH...SOME -SN IS CROSSING ERN MT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 408 AM EST                                             
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE            
INTO MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE BUILDING               
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER UPPER MI.                
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY.               
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW               
OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE KEWEENAW...                
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GOING CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LIFT WITHIN THE LOW                   
CLOUDS...AND THE FACT THAT VERY FEW FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED                  
UPSTREAM. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER                
TODAY EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV                   
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC GIVEN READINGS SEEN                 
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
TONIGHT...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH IN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD AS IT              
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OTHER SHRTWV TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN ROCKIES. BY 12Z MON...THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN FAR WRN ONTARIO AND            
MN...WHILE THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND NRN IL. WITH             
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CWA...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL (500MB            
DROP OF 90-120 METERS). MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE MORE AHEAD OF THE              
TROUGH AS WELL...SO THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LIGHT            
PCPN OVER THE CWA. SINCE THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE              
THAT GREAT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.40 OF AN INCH              
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID                 
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED. PCPN ON LAND SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF                   
SNOW...BUT WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS                 
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN               
SUPERIOR WHERE GREATER HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER OCCURS. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LATE OUT WEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS SHOWN             
TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C AND WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND A SFC LOW CROSSING            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BE                    
DICTATED BY THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN...             
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE.                                             
MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF FAR WRN ONTARIO AND             
MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH...WITH             
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IWD AREA BY 00Z TUE. IT                
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING NRN IL IS STILL                 
PRESENT...OVER INDIANA AND OHIO BY 00Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE TWO                
TROUGHS HAVE NOT PHASED YET. NONETHELESS...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS                 
CROSSING INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND            
1005MB NEAR DTX AT 00Z. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MEANS AN INCREASING NW             
TO NORTH WIND THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED COOLING OF THE               
AIR OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY DROP TO                  
AROUND -8C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BETTER COOLING...DOWN TO -12 TO               
-14C...STAYS OUT TO THE WEST OVER MN...THOUGH -8C IS SUFFICIENT                 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE            
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR THAT TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE EASTERN CWA              
WHICH WILL STILL BE IN A HEIGHT FALL SCENARIO EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.            
IN FACT...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO LIKELY IN THIS AREA.                     
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH                  
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WET SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW AGAIN COULD MIX WITH            
RAIN OVER THE WATER AND EVEN ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                    
SHORELINE...WITH THE INCREASING WIND PRODUCING MORE HEAT FLUX. GIVEN            
THE COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER               
LOW AND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH...MAYBE             
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WARMEST AREAS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH              
NW WINDS DOWNSLOPING AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.             
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER              
LOW QUICKLY TO THE SE...REACHING LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO               
NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z WED. THIS MEANS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS NOTED BY RH FIELDS SHOWING DRY                    
ADVECTION ALOFT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. HOWEVER...MOIST COOL LOW               
LEVEL AIR BEING DRIVEN SOUTH MON NIGHT WILL MEAN A FAVORABLE LAKE               
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SETUP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAVORED            
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE SE U.P. SINCE THE WINDS               
ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE ENHANCED BANDS INLAND. PCPN            
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN              
THE EVENING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL ENOUGH COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE              
TO SWITCH IT ALL TO SNOW. GREATEST AMOUNT OF PCPN EXPECTED IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....BUT LOW SNOW TO WATER                 
RATIOS (10 TO 1 OR POSSIBLY EVEN LESS) SUGGESTS ONLY AN INCH OR TWO             
OF ACCUMULATION. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH             
THE DAY ON TUE...ENOUGH THAT POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...              
THOUGH STILL HIGH IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MQT/ALGER COUNTIES.                   
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM MAY DRY OUT ENOUGH...                  
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NAM...THAT THE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO DZ IN THE             
AFTN. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TO SEE IF MODELS                
TREND TOWARDS THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURE WISE...READINGS SHOULD NOT GET             
TOO CHILLY MON NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WIND. MOST LOCATIONS                  
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...AND THOSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ONLY                
BOTTOM OUT AT 30. THE CLIMB ON TUE EXPECTED AGAIN OF 5 TO 10                    
DEGREES...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING.                               
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FZDZ. UPPER                
TROUGH/LOW REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE OR JUST                
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. RH               
PROFILES SHOW CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOWERING                        
INVERSIONS...WHICH RESULTS IN TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS            
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
FROM MN AND A LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                  
LOW...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTH TO NW WINDS OVER THE CWA. WITH               
THE LOW CLOUDS AND THE WIND DIRECTION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT                
900MB TEMPS AROUND -8C ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SOME                
LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM WILL DRY OUT...WHICH MEANS EITHER                
FZDZ OR -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED THE FZDZ NOW ONLY IN                  
UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING EXISTS.             
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO SEE IF FZDZ IS NEEDED ELSEWHERE. THE                 
CHANCES FOR -SHSN/FZDZ ARE CONFINED TO TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED                    
MORNING. AFTER WED MORNING...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                  
DRYING BOTH BELOW THE CLOUDS AND ALOFT TO END THE NEED FOR CHANCE               
POPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WITH SUGGESTIONS BY             
THE ECMWF OF IT ROTATING BACK FARTHER WEST FOR THE NEED TO INCLUDE              
POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS TUE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FEW                  
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON NIGHT...COLDEST IN FAR WRN UPPER MI CLOSER              
TO THE SFC RIDGE. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.                       
BEYOND WED...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE IN THE MEAN FROM THE 00Z               
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN UPPER TROUGH                
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. OVER TIME...THE TROUGHING GETS                   
COOLER...BUT REALLY NOTHING TOO COLD EVIDENT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OTHER THAN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD AT SAW...MVFR CIGS                
SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING IFR TO LOW END            
MVFR -SN. THEN...AS NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AND COLD AIR            
MOVES IN ALOFT...-SHSN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT CMX AFTER               
15Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH LOW PRES DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT                 
SWRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO             
30KT. AS THE LOW SETTLES SE TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...REORGANIZES AND            
STRENGTHENS SOME...EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE LATE MON              
AFTN THRU TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD                   
OCCUR...BUT SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK...WILL HOLD OFF ON A               
MENTION OF GALES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH                  
WED/THU AS PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. STRONGEST WINDS             
WILL REMAIN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED/THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 408 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT            
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S....WHICH              
THEN SLOWS DOWN IN SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHERE A FAIRLY              
DEEP TROUGH EXISTS. WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THERE ARE TWO                 
SHRTWV TROUGHS TO NOTE...ONE OVER IDAHO AND A SECOND MORE WRAPPED UP            
ONE CROSSING NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A THIRD...BUT MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV IS              
MAKING ITS WAY SE INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN               
UPPER RIDGE BEING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE SRN CANADA SHRTWV TROUGH.               
THIS WEAK SHRTWV IS NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT BESIDES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS            
CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA...DUE TO DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR SEEN ON              
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND GRB. THIS DRY AIR AND SOME CLEAR                 
SKIES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...               
ALLOWED LOCATIONS IN DELTA COUNTY TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE               
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST...ALLOWING RETURN                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING READINGS BACK UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO            
BRINGING SOME STRATUS WITH IT...NOW COVERING ALL OF MN INTO WRN WI              
AND WRN UPPER MI. 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS THE STRATUS WITH A                     
SATURATED LAYER BTWN 800-925MB...WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUNDING IS              
DRY. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EVEN OCCURRED AT GFK AT 03Z...BUT NO                 
OTHER FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED. OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION                
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN CENTRAL CANADA IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH PCPN.               
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION ARE DEFINITELY WARMER THAN            
THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE CWA...3C AT BIS AND 1C AT CYQD...COMPARED TO            
-8C AT CWPL AND -7C AT APX. FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE OTHER                  
SHRTWV TROUGH...SOME -SN IS CROSSING ERN MT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 408 AM EST                                             
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE            
INTO MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE BUILDING               
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER UPPER MI.                
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY.               
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW               
OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE KEWEENAW...                
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GOING CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LIFT WITHIN THE LOW                   
CLOUDS...AND THE FACT THAT VERY FEW FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED                  
UPSTREAM. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER                
TODAY EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV                   
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC GIVEN READINGS SEEN                 
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
TONIGHT...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH IN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD AS IT              
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OTHER SHRTWV TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN ROCKIES. BY 12Z MON...THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN FAR WRN ONTARIO AND            
MN...WHILE THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND NRN IL. WITH             
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CWA...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL (500MB            
DROP OF 90-120 METERS). MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE MORE AHEAD OF THE              
TROUGH AS WELL...SO THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LIGHT            
PCPN OVER THE CWA. SINCE THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE              
THAT GREAT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.40 OF AN INCH              
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID                 
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED. PCPN ON LAND SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF                   
SNOW...BUT WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS                 
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN               
SUPERIOR WHERE GREATER HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER OCCURS. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LATE OUT WEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS SHOWN             
TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C AND WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND A SFC LOW CROSSING            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BE                    
DICTATED BY THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN...             
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE.                                             
MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF FAR WRN ONTARIO AND             
MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH...WITH             
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IWD AREA BY 00Z TUE. IT                
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING NRN IL IS STILL                 
PRESENT...OVER INDIANA AND OHIO BY 00Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE TWO                
TROUGHS HAVE NOT PHASED YET. NONETHELESS...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS                 
CROSSING INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND            
1005MB NEAR DTX AT 00Z. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MEANS AN INCREASING NW             
TO NORTH WIND THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED COOLING OF THE               
AIR OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY DROP TO                  
AROUND -8C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BETTER COOLING...DOWN TO -12 TO               
-14C...STAYS OUT TO THE WEST OVER MN...THOUGH -8C IS SUFFICIENT                 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE            
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR THAT TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE EASTERN CWA              
WHICH WILL STILL BE IN A HEIGHT FALL SCENARIO EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.            
IN FACT...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO LIKELY IN THIS AREA.                     
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH                  
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WET SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW AGAIN COULD MIX WITH            
RAIN OVER THE WATER AND EVEN ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                    
SHORELINE...WITH THE INCREASING WIND PRODUCING MORE HEAT FLUX. GIVEN            
THE COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER               
LOW AND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH...MAYBE             
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WARMEST AREAS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH              
NW WINDS DOWNSLOPING AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.             
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER              
LOW QUICKLY TO THE SE...REACHING LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO               
NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z WED. THIS MEANS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS NOTED BY RH FIELDS SHOWING DRY                    
ADVECTION ALOFT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. HOWEVER...MOIST COOL LOW               
LEVEL AIR BEING DRIVEN SOUTH MON NIGHT WILL MEAN A FAVORABLE LAKE               
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SETUP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAVORED            
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE SE U.P. SINCE THE WINDS               
ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE ENHANCED BANDS INLAND. PCPN            
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN              
THE EVENING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL ENOUGH COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE              
TO SWITCH IT ALL TO SNOW. GREATEST AMOUNT OF PCPN EXPECTED IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....BUT LOW SNOW TO WATER                 
RATIOS (10 TO 1 OR POSSIBLY EVEN LESS) SUGGESTS ONLY AN INCH OR TWO             
OF ACCUMULATION. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH             
THE DAY ON TUE...ENOUGH THAT POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...              
THOUGH STILL HIGH IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MQT/ALGER COUNTIES.                   
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM MAY DRY OUT ENOUGH...                  
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NAM...THAT THE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO DZ IN THE             
AFTN. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TO SEE IF MODELS                
TREND TOWARDS THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURE WISE...READINGS SHOULD NOT GET             
TOO CHILLY MON NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WIND. MOST LOCATIONS                  
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...AND THOSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ONLY                
BOTTOM OUT AT 30. THE CLIMB ON TUE EXPECTED AGAIN OF 5 TO 10                    
DEGREES...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING.                               
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FZDZ. UPPER                
TROUGH/LOW REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE OR JUST                
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. RH               
PROFILES SHOW CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOWERING                        
INVERSIONS...WHICH RESULTS IN TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS            
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
FROM MN AND A LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                  
LOW...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTH TO NW WINDS OVER THE CWA. WITH               
THE LOW CLOUDS AND THE WIND DIRECTION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT                
900MB TEMPS AROUND -8C ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SOME                
LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM WILL DRY OUT...WHICH MEANS EITHER                
FZDZ OR -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED THE FZDZ NOW ONLY IN                  
UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING EXISTS.             
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO SEE IF FZDZ IS NEEDED ELSEWHERE. THE                 
CHANCES FOR -SHSN/FZDZ ARE CONFINED TO TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED                    
MORNING. AFTER WED MORNING...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                  
DRYING BOTH BELOW THE CLOUDS AND ALOFT TO END THE NEED FOR CHANCE               
POPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WITH SUGGESTIONS BY             
THE ECMWF OF IT ROTATING BACK FARTHER WEST FOR THE NEED TO INCLUDE              
POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS TUE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FEW                  
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON NIGHT...COLDEST IN FAR WRN UPPER MI CLOSER              
TO THE SFC RIDGE. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.                       
BEYOND WED...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE IN THE MEAN FROM THE 00Z               
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN UPPER TROUGH                
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. OVER TIME...THE TROUGHING GETS                   
COOLER...BUT REALLY NOTHING TOO COLD EVIDENT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS                  
AREA OF STRATOCU/STRATUS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ADVECT              
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES DROPPING SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.             
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT KSAW MAY BE ON THE SRN EDGE OF             
THE STRATOCU AREA THIS AFTN AND MAY BREAK OUT INTO VFR CONDITIONS               
FOR A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT OCCURRING...SO KEPT WITH AN MVFR            
FCST DURING THE AFTN. TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT                 
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS IN -SN AT KCMX                   
AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPING WRLY DIRECTION. -SN LATE IN THE NIGHT            
AT KSAW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR VIS TO REMAIN VFR.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH LOW PRES DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT                 
SWRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO             
30KT. AS THE LOW SETTLES SE TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...REORGANIZES AND            
STRENGTHENS SOME...EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE LATE MON              
AFTN THRU TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD                   
OCCUR...BUT SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK...WILL HOLD OFF ON A               
MENTION OF GALES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH                  
WED/THU AS PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. STRONGEST WINDS             
WILL REMAIN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED/THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
408 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT            
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S....WHICH              
THEN SLOWS DOWN IN SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHERE A FAIRLY              
DEEP TROUGH EXISTS. WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THERE ARE TWO                 
SHRTWV TROUGHS TO NOTE...ONE OVER IDAHO AND A SECOND MORE WRAPPED UP            
ONE CROSSING NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A THIRD...BUT MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV IS              
MAKING ITS WAY SE INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN               
UPPER RIDGE BEING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE SRN CANADA SHRTWV TROUGH.               
THIS WEAK SHRTWV IS NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT BESIDES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS            
CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA...DUE TO DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR SEEN ON              
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND GRB. THIS DRY AIR AND SOME CLEAR                 
SKIES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...               
ALLOWED LOCATIONS IN DELTA COUNTY TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO DURING THE               
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST...ALLOWING RETURN                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING READINGS BACK UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO            
BRINGING SOME STRATUS WITH IT...NOW COVERING ALL OF MN INTO WRN WI              
AND WRN UPPER MI. 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOWS THE STRATUS WITH A                     
SATURATED LAYER BTWN 800-925MB...WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUNDING IS              
DRY. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EVEN OCCURRED AT GFK AT 03Z...BUT NO                 
OTHER FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED. OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION                
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN CENTRAL CANADA IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH PCPN.               
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION ARE DEFINITELY WARMER THAN            
THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE CWA...3C AT BIS AND 1C AT CYQD...COMPARED TO            
-8C AT CWPL AND -7C AT APX. FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE OTHER                  
SHRTWV TROUGH...SOME -SN IS CROSSING ERN MT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE            
INTO MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE BUILDING               
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER UPPER MI.                
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY.               
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW               
OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE KEWEENAW...                
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GOING CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LIFT WITHIN THE LOW                   
CLOUDS...AND THE FACT THAT VERY FEW FZDZ REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED                  
UPSTREAM. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER                
TODAY EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV                   
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC GIVEN READINGS SEEN                 
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
TONIGHT...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH IN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD AS IT              
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OTHER SHRTWV TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN ROCKIES. BY 12Z MON...THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN FAR WRN ONTARIO AND            
MN...WHILE THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH SHIFTS INTO IOWA AND NRN IL. WITH             
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CWA...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL (500MB            
DROP OF 90-120 METERS). MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE MORE AHEAD OF THE              
TROUGH AS WELL...SO THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LIGHT            
PCPN OVER THE CWA. SINCE THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT PROGGED TO BE              
THAT GREAT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.40 OF AN INCH              
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID                 
EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED. PCPN ON LAND SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF                   
SNOW...BUT WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS                 
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN               
SUPERIOR WHERE GREATER HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER OCCURS. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LATE OUT WEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS SHOWN             
TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C AND WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND A SFC LOW CROSSING            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL BE                    
DICTATED BY THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN...             
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE.                                             
MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF FAR WRN ONTARIO AND             
MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH...WITH             
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IWD AREA BY 00Z TUE. IT                
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING NRN IL IS STILL                 
PRESENT...OVER INDIANA AND OHIO BY 00Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE TWO                
TROUGHS HAVE NOT PHASED YET. NONETHELESS...THE SFC LOW THAT WAS                 
CROSSING INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND            
1005MB NEAR DTX AT 00Z. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MEANS AN INCREASING NW             
TO NORTH WIND THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED COOLING OF THE               
AIR OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY DROP TO                  
AROUND -8C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BETTER COOLING...DOWN TO -12 TO               
-14C...STAYS OUT TO THE WEST OVER MN...THOUGH -8C IS SUFFICIENT                 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE            
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR THAT TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE EASTERN CWA              
WHICH WILL STILL BE IN A HEIGHT FALL SCENARIO EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.            
IN FACT...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO LIKELY IN THIS AREA.                     
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH                  
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WET SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW AGAIN COULD MIX WITH            
RAIN OVER THE WATER AND EVEN ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                    
SHORELINE...WITH THE INCREASING WIND PRODUCING MORE HEAT FLUX. GIVEN            
THE COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER               
LOW AND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH...MAYBE             
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. WARMEST AREAS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH              
NW WINDS DOWNSLOPING AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.             
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER              
LOW QUICKLY TO THE SE...REACHING LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO               
NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z WED. THIS MEANS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS NOTED BY RH FIELDS SHOWING DRY                    
ADVECTION ALOFT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. HOWEVER...MOIST COOL LOW               
LEVEL AIR BEING DRIVEN SOUTH MON NIGHT WILL MEAN A FAVORABLE LAKE               
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SETUP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAVORED            
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE SE U.P. SINCE THE WINDS               
ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE ENHANCED BANDS INLAND. PCPN            
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN              
THE EVENING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL ENOUGH COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE              
TO SWITCH IT ALL TO SNOW. GREATEST AMOUNT OF PCPN EXPECTED IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....BUT LOW SNOW TO WATER                 
RATIOS (10 TO 1 OR POSSIBLY EVEN LESS) SUGGESTS ONLY AN INCH OR TWO             
OF ACCUMULATION. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH             
THE DAY ON TUE...ENOUGH THAT POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...              
THOUGH STILL HIGH IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MQT/ALGER COUNTIES.                   
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM MAY DRY OUT ENOUGH...                  
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NAM...THAT THE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO DZ IN THE             
AFTN. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TO SEE IF MODELS                
TREND TOWARDS THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURE WISE...READINGS SHOULD NOT GET             
TOO CHILLY MON NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WIND. MOST LOCATIONS                  
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...AND THOSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ONLY                
BOTTOM OUT AT 30. THE CLIMB ON TUE EXPECTED AGAIN OF 5 TO 10                    
DEGREES...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING.                               
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FZDZ. UPPER                
TROUGH/LOW REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE OR JUST                
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. RH               
PROFILES SHOW CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOWERING                        
INVERSIONS...WHICH RESULTS IN TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS            
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
FROM MN AND A LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                  
LOW...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTH TO NW WINDS OVER THE CWA. WITH               
THE LOW CLOUDS AND THE WIND DIRECTION...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT                
900MB TEMPS AROUND -8C ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SOME                
LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE -10C ISOTHERM WILL DRY OUT...WHICH MEANS EITHER                
FZDZ OR -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED THE FZDZ NOW ONLY IN                  
UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING EXISTS.             
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO SEE IF FZDZ IS NEEDED ELSEWHERE. THE                 
CHANCES FOR -SHSN/FZDZ ARE CONFINED TO TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED                    
MORNING. AFTER WED MORNING...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                  
DRYING BOTH BELOW THE CLOUDS AND ALOFT TO END THE NEED FOR CHANCE               
POPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WITH SUGGESTIONS BY             
THE ECMWF OF IT ROTATING BACK FARTHER WEST FOR THE NEED TO INCLUDE              
POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS TUE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FEW                  
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON NIGHT...COLDEST IN FAR WRN UPPER MI CLOSER              
TO THE SFC RIDGE. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.                       
BEYOND WED...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE IN THE MEAN FROM THE 00Z               
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN UPPER TROUGH                
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. OVER TIME...THE TROUGHING GETS                   
COOLER...BUT REALLY NOTHING TOO COLD EVIDENT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES AS DRY AIRMASS LINGERS            
EVEN AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO            
THE E AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE S TO THE WSW LATE IN            
THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT STRATOCU OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MN TO                
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD BASE WILL                 
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD MVFR IN THE                  
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE               
INVERSION. LIGHT SNOW THAY MAY REDUCE VSBY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE                
AFTER 06Z/MON AT KCMX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH LOW PRES DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...EXPECT                 
SWRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO             
30KT. AS THE LOW SETTLES SE TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...REORGANIZES AND            
STRENGTHENS SOME...EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE LATE MON              
AFTN THRU TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD                   
OCCUR...BUT SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK...WILL HOLD OFF ON A               
MENTION OF GALES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH                  
WED/THU AS PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. STRONGEST WINDS             
WILL REMAIN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED/THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST                                               
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FULL LATITUDE TROF            
IN ERN NAMERICA EDGING SLOWLY EWD AND GIVING WAY TO UPR RDG                     
SPREADING E FM THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES CENTERS NOTED OVER ONTARIO               
AND THE OH VALLEY WITH HINT OF A LO PRES TROF OVER SRN LK SUP...MOST            
LIKELY DUE TO HEATING OF/PRES FALLS WITHIN THE CHILLY AIRMASS (12Z              
H85 TEMP AT APX WAS -15C) OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS (4C            
OVER THE W TO 7C OVER THE E). ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH             
OF THE W HALF OF THE FA (INCLUDING WRN LK SUP) WHERE DRY 12Z INL                
(PWAT 0.06 INCH)/GRB (PWAT 0.10 INCH) RAOBS AND 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM              
RHI SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN AOB H9 AND DRY LOWER TROP...QUITE A BIT OF            
CLD LINGERS OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LK SUP AND THE E HALF OF THE FA/NRN             
LK MI AS INVRN BASE AT APX WAS STILL H825 AT 12Z. HOWEVER...LOWERING            
INVRN BASE W-E AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOWN IN THE SUB INVRN LYR                
EVEN AT APX IN PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
ARRIVAL OF H85 RDG AXIS HAS ENDED ANY SGNFT LES EVEN WHERE QUITE A              
BIT OF SC LINGERS. THERE IS A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU IA...BUT THIS            
SYS IS PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE S THAT EVEN CI SHIELD IS SHIFTING BY             
S OF THE WI BORDER. QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN               
PLAINS AND INTO WRN MN. 12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR             
BLO INVRN BASE AT H825. BUT SINCE AIRMASS IS DRY ABV H8 THERE...NO              
PCPN IS NOTED UNDER THE CLD COVER EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME FOG. THE            
TEMP OF THE MOIST LYR AT BIS WAS ENTIRELY ABV -10C. ANOTHER SHRTWV              
WAS NOTED OVER NRN MANITOBA AND DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO E OF THE UPR            
RDG AXIS IN THE PLAINS. COVG OF DEEPER CLD COVER/PCPN ACCOMPANYING              
THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED BY DRYNESS SHOWN ON 12Z YQD/YPL RAOBS.                  
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV IS SLAMMING EWD THRU SW CAN. 00Z-            
12Z H3 HGT FALLS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WERE 150-200M.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... (TNGT THRU SUN) ISSUED AT 347 PM EST                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LO PCPN CHCS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH WAD PATTERN THAT WL BE DVLPG BTWN HI PRES RDG                   
SHIFTING FARTHER E AND FALLING PRES TO THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV               
NOW MOVING THRU SW CAN. SHRTWV NOW DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO IS ALSO              
OF SOME CONCERN.                                                                
FOR TNGT...TWIN HI PRES OVER ONTARIO AND THE OH VALLEY ARE PROGGED              
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE CENTER OVER THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY              
12Z SUN WHILE SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO SLIDES TO JUST NE OF ANJ IN              
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG PUSHING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AHEAD OF HGT/PRES               
FALLS OVER SCNTRL CAN. WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING FM S LATE TODAY TO THE            
WSW BY SUN MRNG...THE CLDS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN ARE LIKELY TO            
ADVECT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TNGT AS INDICATED BY FCST RH SHOWN            
ON THE F18-24 GFS/NAM 280-285K ISENTROPIC SFCS (H9 THRU H775).                  
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW SHOW TENDENCY FOR HIER RH TO                
DIMINISH DESPITE INCRS IN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE ISENTROPIC             
SFCS IN QUESTION. DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX                
SDNG THAT MAY BE THE SOURCE AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW VEERS MORE                      
SUBSTANTIALLY AFT 12Z SUN LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS FCST. CONSIDERING               
THE RELUCTANCE OF ALL THESE MODELS TO INCRS THE LLVL RH AND DRYNESS             
OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...HAVE REMOVED GOING MENTION OF FZDZ TNGT. IN             
REGARDS TO SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...GUIDANCE SUGS TRACK OF              
THIS SYS WL BE FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT ANY PCPN IN OVERALL DRY                  
AIRMASS WL REMAIN NE OF THE FA ALTHOUGH SOME ACCOMPANYING HI CLD MAY            
IMPACT UPR MI. OTRW... SLOWLY INCRSG SW FLOW (H925 WINDS PROGGED TO             
INCRS TO ARND 25 KTS BY 12Z SUN) AND INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR WL LIMIT              
DIURNAL TEMP FALL SO THAT TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NGT (WHEN            
MIN TEMP REACHED -16F AT MARENISCO IN GOGEBIC COUNTY).                          
ON SUN...EXPECT VEERING LLVL FLOW TO A MORE 250 DIRECTION TO ADVECT             
ENUF LLVL MSTR MORE FM THE BIS SOURCE AREA TO BRING IN A SC OVC                 
EXCEPT OVER THE SCNTRL. ALSO MAINTAINED MENTION OF PTCHY -FZDZ IN               
THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF THAT WOULD UPSLOPE WITH EXPECTED WSW WIND.             
DIURNAL WRMG WL DCRS NEAR SFC RH ENUF IN THE AFTN TO LIMIT POTENTIAL            
FOR SML DROPLETS TO REACH SFC. -FZDZ SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE            
GIVEN TEMPS NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -6C WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST LYR.                   
OTRW...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY LK SUP ESPECIALLY IN THE             
AFTN WITH APRCH OF LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO SFC LO MOVING THRU                 
SCNTRL CAN. BUT LIMITED MSTR DEPTH IN ABSENCE OF DEEP DYNAMIC                   
SUPPORT WL LIMIT INTENSITY/COVG OF ANY PCPN. GIVEN HI STABILITY                 
SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR              
SUN MAX TEMPS.                                                                  
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SUN NIGHT THRU THURS)                                  
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BRING               
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST              
MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA...TIED TO A LEE                
TROUGH THAT LATER BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE MANITOBA LOW. WILL NEED TO            
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED                   
OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD BE MORE              
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF. CURRENT FCST HAS HIGH END CHANCE                
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL ZONES. AS THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW IS GOING ON...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN FOR NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR LES BELTS ACROSS            
THE WEST AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS              
TURN NORTH...SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN             
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY. OVERALL AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW                 
ISN/T VERY COLD...THOUGH QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR LES PROCESSES TO                  
BEGIN...850MB TEMPS -10C/LS TEMPS AOB 8C. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE                 
PROGGED TO BE POOR AS WELL...AOB 3KFT...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW                
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WHY WE WON/T BE SEEING MUCH SNOW THIS WEEK.              
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY MORNING...IT              
SLOWS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A                      
RESULT...LINGERED LES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FUTURE SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO LINGER LES LONGER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH RIGHT               
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL JUST TRANSLATE INTO                  
STRATUS. A BRIEF INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE              
WESTERN ZONES...AS SEEN ON THE 295K SFC...MAY WARRANT THE ADDITION              
OF SOME LES POPS...KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW THOUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES AS DRY AIRMASS LINGERS            
EVEN AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO            
THE E AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE S TO THE WSW LATE IN            
THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT STRATOCU OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MN TO                
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD BASE WILL                 
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD MVFR IN THE MORNING          
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.            
LIGHT SNOW THAY MAY REDUCE VSBY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z/MON             
AT KCMX.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY TO MOVE               
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.  FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...A LOW             
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND                 
PRESS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY REACH 30 KNOTS. EXPECT THE LOW TO THEN                 
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY               
LATE WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE              
PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NO GALE FORCE WINDS               
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
635 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FULL LATITUDE TROF            
IN ERN NAMERICA EDGING SLOWLY EWD AND GIVING WAY TO UPR RDG                     
SPREADING E FM THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES CENTERS NOTED OVER ONTARIO               
AND THE OH VALLEY WITH HINT OF A LO PRES TROF OVER SRN LK SUP...MOST            
LIKELY DUE TO HEATING OF/PRES FALLS WITHIN THE CHILLY AIRMASS (12Z              
H85 TEMP AT APX WAS -15C) OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS (4C            
OVER THE W TO 7C OVER THE E). ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH             
OF THE W HALF OF THE FA (INCLUDING WRN LK SUP) WHERE DRY 12Z INL                
(PWAT 0.06 INCH)/GRB (PWAT 0.10 INCH) RAOBS AND 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM              
RHI SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN AOB H9 AND DRY LOWER TROP...QUITE A BIT OF            
CLD LINGERS OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LK SUP AND THE E HALF OF THE FA/NRN             
LK MI AS INVRN BASE AT APX WAS STILL H825 AT 12Z. HOWEVER...LOWERING            
INVRN BASE W-E AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOWN IN THE SUB INVRN LYR                
EVEN AT APX IN PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
ARRIVAL OF H85 RDG AXIS HAS ENDED ANY SGNFT LES EVEN WHERE QUITE A              
BIT OF SC LINGERS. THERE IS A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU IA...BUT THIS            
SYS IS PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE S THAT EVEN CI SHIELD IS SHIFTING BY             
S OF THE WI BORDER. QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN               
PLAINS AND INTO WRN MN. 12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR             
BLO INVRN BASE AT H825. BUT SINCE AIRMASS IS DRY ABV H8 THERE...NO              
PCPN IS NOTED UNDER THE CLD COVER EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME FOG. THE            
TEMP OF THE MOIST LYR AT BIS WAS ENTIRELY ABV -10C. ANOTHER SHRTWV              
WAS NOTED OVER NRN MANITOBA AND DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO E OF THE UPR            
RDG AXIS IN THE PLAINS. COVG OF DEEPER CLD COVER/PCPN ACCOMPANYING              
THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED BY DRYNESS SHOWN ON 12Z YQD/YPL RAOBS.                  
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV IS SLAMMING EWD THRU SW CAN. 00Z-            
12Z H3 HGT FALLS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WERE 150-200M.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... (TNGT THRU SUN)                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LO PCPN CHCS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH WAD PATTERN THAT WL BE DVLPG BTWN HI PRES RDG                   
SHIFTING FARTHER E AND FALLING PRES TO THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV               
NOW MOVING THRU SW CAN. SHRTWV NOW DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO IS ALSO              
OF SOME CONCERN.                                                                
FOR TNGT...TWIN HI PRES OVER ONTARIO AND THE OH VALLEY ARE PROGGED              
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE CENTER OVER THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY              
12Z SUN WHILE SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO SLIDES TO JUST NE OF ANJ IN              
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG PUSHING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AHEAD OF HGT/PRES               
FALLS OVER SCNTRL CAN. WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING FM S LATE TODAY TO THE            
WSW BY SUN MRNG...THE CLDS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN ARE LIKELY TO            
ADVECT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TNGT AS INDICATED BY FCST RH SHOWN            
ON THE F18-24 GFS/NAM 280-285K ISENTROPIC SFCS (H9 THRU H775).                  
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW SHOW TENDENCY FOR HIER RH TO                
DIMINISH DESPITE INCRS IN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE ISENTROPIC             
SFCS IN QUESTION. DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX                
SDNG THAT MAY BE THE SOURCE AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW VEERS MORE                      
SUBSTANTIALLY AFT 12Z SUN LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS FCST. CONSIDERING               
THE RELUCTANCE OF ALL THESE MODELS TO INCRS THE LLVL RH AND DRYNESS             
OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...HAVE REMOVED GOING MENTION OF FZDZ TNGT. IN             
REGARDS TO SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...GUIDANCE SUGS TRACK OF              
THIS SYS WL BE FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT ANY PCPN IN OVERALL DRY                  
AIRMASS WL REMAIN NE OF THE FA ALTHOUGH SOME ACCOMPANYING HI CLD MAY            
IMPACT UPR MI. OTRW... SLOWLY INCRSG SW FLOW (H925 WINDS PROGGED TO             
INCRS TO ARND 25 KTS BY 12Z SUN) AND INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR WL LIMIT              
DIURNAL TEMP FALL SO THAT TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NGT (WHEN            
MIN TEMP REACHED -16F AT MARENISCO IN GOGEBIC COUNTY).                          
ON SUN...EXPECT VEERING LLVL FLOW TO A MORE 250 DIRECTION TO ADVECT             
ENUF LLVL MSTR MORE FM THE BIS SOURCE AREA TO BRING IN A SC OVC                 
EXCEPT OVER THE SCNTRL. ALSO MAINTAINED MENTION OF PTCHY -FZDZ IN               
THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF THAT WOULD UPSLOPE WITH EXPECTED WSW WIND.             
DIURNAL WRMG WL DCRS NEAR SFC RH ENUF IN THE AFTN TO LIMIT POTENTIAL            
FOR SML DROPLETS TO REACH SFC. -FZDZ SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE            
GIVEN TEMPS NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -6C WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST LYR.                   
OTRW...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY LK SUP ESPECIALLY IN THE             
AFTN WITH APRCH OF LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO SFC LO MOVING THRU                 
SCNTRL CAN. BUT LIMITED MSTR DEPTH IN ABSENCE OF DEEP DYNAMIC                   
SUPPORT WL LIMIT INTENSITY/COVG OF ANY PCPN. GIVEN HI STABILITY                 
SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR              
SUN MAX TEMPS.                                                                  
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SUN NIGHT THRU THURS)                                  
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BRING               
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST              
MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA...TIED TO A LEE                
TROUGH THAT LATER BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE MANITOBA LOW. WILL NEED TO            
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED                   
OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD BE MORE              
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF. CURRENT FCST HAS HIGH END CHANCE                
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL ZONES. AS THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW IS GOING ON...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN FOR NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR LES BELTS ACROSS            
THE WEST AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS              
TURN NORTH...SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN             
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY. OVERALL AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW                 
ISN/T VERY COLD...THOUGH QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR LES PROCESSES TO                  
BEGIN...850MB TEMPS -10C/LS TEMPS AOB 8C. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE                 
PROGGED TO BE POOR AS WELL...AOB 3KFT...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW                
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WHY WE WON/T BE SEEING MUCH SNOW THIS WEEK.              
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY MORNING...IT              
SLOWS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A                      
RESULT...LINGERED LES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FUTURE SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO LINGER LES LONGER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH RIGHT               
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL JUST TRANSLATE INTO                  
STRATUS. A BRIEF INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE              
WESTERN ZONES...AS SEEN ON THE 295K SFC...MAY WARRANT THE ADDITION              
OF SOME LES POPS...KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW THOUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH SFC RDG AND DRY                
AIRMASS DOMINATING THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE             
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE S TO THE WSW LATE TONIGHT AND                    
SUNDAY...EXPECT SC OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MN TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD BASE WILL INITIALLY BE VFR BUT                 
SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD MVFR SUN MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF              
GREATER MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY TO MOVE               
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.  FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...A LOW             
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND                 
PRESS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY REACH 30 KNOTS. EXPECT THE LOW TO THEN                 
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY               
LATE WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE              
PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NO GALE FORCE WINDS               
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
347 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FULL LATITUDE TROF            
IN ERN NAMERICA EDGING SLOWLY EWD AND GIVING WAY TO UPR RDG                     
SPREADING E FM THE PLAINS. SFC HI PRES CENTERS NOTED OVER ONTARIO               
AND THE OH VALLEY WITH HINT OF A LO PRES TROF OVER SRN LK SUP...MOST            
LIKELY DUE TO HEATING OF/PRES FALLS WITHIN THE CHILLY AIRMASS (12Z              
H85 TEMP AT APX WAS -15C) OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS (4C            
OVER THE W TO 7C OVER THE E). ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH             
OF THE W HALF OF THE FA (INCLUDING WRN LK SUP) WHERE DRY 12Z INL                
(PWAT 0.06 INCH)/GRB (PWAT 0.10 INCH) RAOBS AND 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM              
RHI SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN AOB H9 AND DRY LOWER TROP...QUITE A BIT OF            
CLD LINGERS OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LK SUP AND THE E HALF OF THE FA/NRN             
LK MI AS INVRN BASE AT APX WAS STILL H825 AT 12Z. HOWEVER...LOWERING            
INVRN BASE W-E AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOWN IN THE SUB INVRN LYR                
EVEN AT APX IN PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
ARRIVAL OF H85 RDG AXIS HAS ENDED ANY SGNFT LES EVEN WHERE QUITE A              
BIT OF SC LINGERS. THERE IS A SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU IA...BUT THIS            
SYS IS PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE S THAT EVEN CI SHIELD IS SHIFTING BY             
S OF THE WI BORDER. QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN               
PLAINS AND INTO WRN MN. 12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR             
BLO INVRN BASE AT H825. BUT SINCE AIRMASS IS DRY ABV H8 THERE...NO              
PCPN IS NOTED UNDER THE CLD COVER EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME FOG. THE            
TEMP OF THE MOIST LYR AT BIS WAS ENTIRELY ABV -10C. ANOTHER SHRTWV              
WAS NOTED OVER NRN MANITOBA AND DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO E OF THE UPR            
RDG AXIS IN THE PLAINS. COVG OF DEEPER CLD COVER/PCPN ACCOMPANYING              
THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED BY DRYNESS SHOWN ON 12Z YQD/YPL RAOBS.                  
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV IS SLAMMING EWD THRU SW CAN. 00Z-            
12Z H3 HGT FALLS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WERE 150-200M.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... (TNGT THRU SUN)                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LO PCPN CHCS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH WAD PATTERN THAT WL BE DVLPG BTWN HI PRES RDG                   
SHIFTING FARTHER E AND FALLING PRES TO THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV               
NOW MOVING THRU SW CAN. SHRTWV NOW DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO IS ALSO              
OF SOME CONCERN.                                                                
FOR TNGT...TWIN HI PRES OVER ONTARIO AND THE OH VALLEY ARE PROGGED              
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE CENTER OVER THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY              
12Z SUN WHILE SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO SLIDES TO JUST NE OF ANJ IN              
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG PUSHING TOWARD WRN LK SUP AHEAD OF HGT/PRES               
FALLS OVER SCNTRL CAN. WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING FM S LATE TODAY TO THE            
WSW BY SUN MRNG...THE CLDS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN ARE LIKELY TO            
ADVECT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TNGT AS INDICATED BY FCST RH SHOWN            
ON THE F18-24 GFS/NAM 280-285K ISENTROPIC SFCS (H9 THRU H775).                  
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW SHOW TENDENCY FOR HIER RH TO                
DIMINISH DESPITE INCRS IN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SHOWN ON THE ISENTROPIC             
SFCS IN QUESTION. DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX                
SDNG THAT MAY BE THE SOURCE AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW VEERS MORE                      
SUBSTANTIALLY AFT 12Z SUN LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS FCST. CONSIDERING               
THE RELUCTANCE OF ALL THESE MODELS TO INCRS THE LLVL RH AND DRYNESS             
OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...HAVE REMOVED GOING MENTION OF FZDZ TNGT. IN             
REGARDS TO SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO...GUIDANCE SUGS TRACK OF              
THIS SYS WL BE FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT ANY PCPN IN OVERALL DRY                  
AIRMASS WL REMAIN NE OF THE FA ALTHOUGH SOME ACCOMPANYING HI CLD MAY            
IMPACT UPR MI. OTRW... SLOWLY INCRSG SW FLOW (H925 WINDS PROGGED TO             
INCRS TO ARND 25 KTS BY 12Z SUN) AND INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR WL LIMIT              
DIURNAL TEMP FALL SO THAT TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NGT (WHEN            
MIN TEMP REACHED -16F AT MARENISCO IN GOGEBIC COUNTY).                          
ON SUN...EXPECT VEERING LLVL FLOW TO A MORE 250 DIRECTION TO ADVECT             
ENUF LLVL MSTR MORE FM THE BIS SOURCE AREA TO BRING IN A SC OVC                 
EXCEPT OVER THE SCNTRL. ALSO MAINTAINED MENTION OF PTCHY -FZDZ IN               
THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF THAT WOULD UPSLOPE WITH EXPECTED WSW WIND.             
DIURNAL WRMG WL DCRS NEAR SFC RH ENUF IN THE AFTN TO LIMIT POTENTIAL            
FOR SML DROPLETS TO REACH SFC. -FZDZ SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE            
GIVEN TEMPS NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -6C WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST LYR.                   
OTRW...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY LK SUP ESPECIALLY IN THE             
AFTN WITH APRCH OF LO PRES TROF ATTENDANT TO SFC LO MOVING THRU                 
SCNTRL CAN. BUT LIMITED MSTR DEPTH IN ABSENCE OF DEEP DYNAMIC                   
SUPPORT WL LIMIT INTENSITY/COVG OF ANY PCPN. GIVEN HI STABILITY                 
SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR              
SUN MAX TEMPS.                                                                  
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SUN NIGHT THRU THURS)                                  
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BRING               
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FA STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST              
MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA...TIED TO A LEE                
TROUGH THAT LATER BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE MANITOBA LOW. WILL NEED TO            
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED                   
OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD BE MORE              
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF. CURRENT FCST HAS HIGH END CHANCE                
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL ZONES. AS THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW IS GOING ON...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN FOR NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR LES BELTS ACROSS            
THE WEST AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS              
TURN NORTH...SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN             
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY. OVERALL AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW                 
ISN/T VERY COLD...THOUGH QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR LES PROCESSES TO                  
BEGIN...850MB TEMPS -10C/LS TEMPS AOB 8C. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE                 
PROGGED TO BE POOR AS WELL...AOB 3KFT...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW                
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WHY WE WON/T BE SEEING MUCH SNOW THIS WEEK.              
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY MORNING...IT              
SLOWS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A                      
RESULT...LINGERED LES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FUTURE SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO LINGER LES LONGER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH RIGHT               
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL JUST TRANSLATE INTO                  
STRATUS. A BRIEF INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE              
WESTERN ZONES...AS SEEN ON THE 295K SFC...MAY WARRANT THE ADDITION              
OF SOME LES POPS...KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW THOUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT AT BOTH SITES WITH DRY AIRMASS             
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB/SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING. AS THE RDG                
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE LLVL WINDS SHIFT FM THE S TO THE WSW LATE               
TNGT/SUN...EXPECT SC OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MN TO GRDLY OVERSPREAD THE             
UPR LKS. THE CLD BASE WL INITIALLY BE VFR GIVEN DRYNESS OF                      
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BUT GRDLY TREND TOWARD MVFR ON SUN MRNG WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF GREATER MSTR BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY TO MOVE               
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.  FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...A LOW             
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND                 
PRESS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY REACH 30 KNOTS. EXPECT THE LOW TO THEN                 
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY               
LATE WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE              
PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NO GALE FORCE WINDS               
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1225 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 5 AM EST)                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S               
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RIDGE IS TO THE LEE OF            
THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS WELL N TO THE NW TERRITORIES. A WELL-DEFINED            
SHORTWAVE HAS CUT THRU THE RIDGE AND IS NOW OVER ERN SD. IT`S ON A              
TRACK TO PASS S OF UPPER MI AND HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE WEATHER HERE.             
FARTHER UPSTREAM...TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN WRN CANADA WITH STRONG             
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA (12HR HEIGHT FALLS WERE                 
UPWARDS OF 140M AT 500MB). THIS TROF WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA AS IT DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. CLOSER                
TO HOME...LES CONTINUES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAS WEAKENED                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HRS. STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES ARE               
FOCUSING MAIN BANDS OF -SHSN INTO MAINLY ALGER COUNTY. OTHERWISE...             
-SHSN/FLURRIES LINGER FROM THE KEWEENAW TO ERN UPPER MI. OVER SW                
UPPER MI...SKIES CLEARED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND TEMPS HAVE                    
NOSE-DIVED UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND/FRESH SNOW COVER. AS OF                  
09Z...LOWEST TEMP IS -15F AT THE WAKEFIELD RAWS SITE.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 5 AM EST)                                             
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND CNTRL UPPER MI               
DRIFTING E...ONGOING LES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING UNDER               
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE. OTHERWISE...AREAS THAT            
START THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY WHILE               
AREAS WITH STRATOCU SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. ONLY                     
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (SRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE               
COUNTIES) WHERE DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATOCU AND SOME             
FLURRIES DURING THE AFTN. THERE WILL BE SOME CI SPILLING DOWN THE               
FRONT SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE W...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT DOES              
NOT APPEAR THAT THE CI WILL BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD. FAVORED THE             
LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM HIGHS                
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN                   
TONIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF TROF EMERGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH              
TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE N IN ONTARIO...BEST ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE PCPN WILL                 
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF              
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST              
AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS WHERE SWRLY FLOW DOWNSLOPES...                     
MINIMIZING THREAT. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS STILL LEND SUPPORT TO THIS                
POSSIBILITY AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE -10C IN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL                 
SATURATION...AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION STILL                  
OCCURRING AFTER SATURATION IS ACHIEVED. LOCAL REG-WRF RUN PROVIDES              
SOME SUPPORT...BUT GFS IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL OF -FZDZ.            
AT THIS POINT...SEE NO REASON TO PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY                     
-FZDZ...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING TO LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER                 
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE. ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A             
LITTLE SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN                
LAKE MICHIGAN AS 850MB TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH. OVER LAKE             
SUPERIOR...WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY                   
COMPONENT THAT IF SHSN DEVELOP...THEY MAY BRUSH THE KEWEENAW LATE               
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL ONLY UTILIZE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO                           
UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION...AND ALSO BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT MAY                
ONLY OCCUR N OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED. OVER NRN LAKE            
MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS BY THE TIME ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...WINDS                
WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY -SHSN E OF                     
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. MINOR HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SUN AFTN AS TROF            
EDGES E ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...HAVE A            
HARD TIME FINDING ANY FORCING SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF                
PCPN. SO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT A DRY AFTN               
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.                                                           
BETTER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS TROF REACHES THE              
GREAT LAKES WITH MID LEVEL LOW SETTLING SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY              
MON EVENING. AS BROAD SFC LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE UPPER                 
LAKES...NWRLY FLOW AND CAA WILL BEGIN SUN NIGHT. GFS IS QUICKEST                
WITH THE COOLING...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO -9/-10C OVER THE W HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LES.             
NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER...ONLY AROUND -4C. UKMET/ECMWF/REG-WRF               
FALL BTWN THE NAM/GFS...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS AND STILL MARGINALLY              
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LES. SO...WITH LIMITED FORCING...PCPN SUN NIGHT            
MAY BE TIED MOSTLY TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS.                 
PER ECMWF/GFS...AS NW FLOW BECOMES N WITH SFC LOW PRES CONSOLIDATING            
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...EXPECT -SHSN TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN UPPER MI             
MON. WITH LIMITED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C) AND             
WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW               
GROWTH TEMP ZONE...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.                   
CONSOLIDATING LOW TO THE SE MAY ALSO SPREAD A GENERAL -SN INTO THE              
ERN FCST AREA MON. -SHSN WILL CONTINUE UNDER NRLY FLOW MON NIGHT                
THEN DIMINISH TUE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT AT BOTH SITES WITH DRY AIRMASS             
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB/SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING. AS THE RDG                
SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE LLVL WINDS SHIFT FM THE S TO THE WSW LATE               
TNGT/SUN...EXPECT SC OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MN TO GRDLY OVERSPREAD THE             
UPR LKS. THE CLD BASE WL INITIALLY BE VFR GIVEN DRYNESS OF                      
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BUT GRDLY TREND TOWARD MVFR ON SUN MRNG WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF GREATER MSTR BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL                
MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS                
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 25 KTS TODAY WILL                  
BECOME SW TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT               
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO DROP SE INTO THE                   
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING             
NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE             
WEST AND THEN NW ON MONDAY...STAYING GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT               
RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 30 KT MON NIGHT             
INTO TUE AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE                     
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW            
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS            
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DUE TO THIS MOVEMENT... NORTHERLY                
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE EAST HALF OF SUPERIOR               
FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER                  
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
653 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 5 AM EST)                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S               
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RIDGE IS TO THE LEE OF            
THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS WELL N TO THE NW TERRITORIES. A WELL-DEFINED            
SHORTWAVE HAS CUT THRU THE RIDGE AND IS NOW OVER ERN SD. IT`S ON A              
TRACK TO PASS S OF UPPER MI AND HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE WEATHER HERE.             
FARTHER UPSTREAM...TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN WRN CANADA WITH STRONG             
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA (12HR HEIGHT FALLS WERE                 
UPWARDS OF 140M AT 500MB). THIS TROF WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA AS IT DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. CLOSER                
TO HOME...LES CONTINUES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAS WEAKENED                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HRS. STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES ARE               
FOCUSING MAIN BANDS OF -SHSN INTO MAINLY ALGER COUNTY. OTHERWISE...             
-SHSN/FLURRIES LINGER FROM THE KEWEENAW TO ERN UPPER MI. OVER SW                
UPPER MI...SKIES CLEARED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND TEMPS HAVE                    
NOSE-DIVED UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND/FRESH SNOW COVER. AS OF                  
09Z...LOWEST TEMP IS -15F AT THE WAKEFIELD RAWS SITE.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 5 AM EST)                                             
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND CNTRL UPPER MI               
DRIFTING E...ONGOING LES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING UNDER               
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE. OTHERWISE...AREAS THAT            
START THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY WHILE               
AREAS WITH STRATOCU SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. ONLY                     
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (SRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE               
COUNTIES) WHERE DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATOCU AND SOME             
FLURRIES DURING THE AFTN. THERE WILL BE SOME CI SPILLING DOWN THE               
FRONT SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE W...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT DOES              
NOT APPEAR THAT THE CI WILL BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD. FAVORED THE             
LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM HIGHS                
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN                   
TONIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF TROF EMERGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH              
TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE N IN ONTARIO...BEST ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE PCPN WILL                 
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF              
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST              
AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS WHERE SWRLY FLOW DOWNSLOPES...                     
MINIMIZING THREAT. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS STILL LEND SUPPORT TO THIS                
POSSIBILITY AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE -10C IN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL                 
SATURATION...AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION STILL                  
OCCURRING AFTER SATURATION IS ACHIEVED. LOCAL REG-WRF RUN PROVIDES              
SOME SUPPORT...BUT GFS IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL OF -FZDZ.            
AT THIS POINT...SEE NO REASON TO PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY                     
-FZDZ...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING TO LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER                 
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE. ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A             
LITTLE SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN                
LAKE MICHIGAN AS 850MB TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH. OVER LAKE             
SUPERIOR...WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY                   
COMPONENT THAT IF SHSN DEVELOP...THEY MAY BRUSH THE KEWEENAW LATE               
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL ONLY UTILIZE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO                           
UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION...AND ALSO BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT MAY                
ONLY OCCUR N OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED. OVER NRN LAKE            
MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS BY THE TIME ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...WINDS                
WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY -SHSN E OF                     
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. MINOR HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SUN AFTN AS TROF            
EDGES E ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...HAVE A            
HARD TIME FINDING ANY FORCING SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF                
PCPN. SO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT A DRY AFTN               
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.                                                           
BETTER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS TROF REACHES THE              
GREAT LAKES WITH MID LEVEL LOW SETTLING SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY              
MON EVENING. AS BROAD SFC LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE UPPER                 
LAKES...NWRLY FLOW AND CAA WILL BEGIN SUN NIGHT. GFS IS QUICKEST                
WITH THE COOLING...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO -9/-10C OVER THE W HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LES.             
NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER...ONLY AROUND -4C. UKMET/ECMWF/REG-WRF               
FALL BTWN THE NAM/GFS...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS AND STILL MARGINALLY              
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LES. SO...WITH LIMITED FORCING...PCPN SUN NIGHT            
MAY BE TIED MOSTLY TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS.                 
PER ECMWF/GFS...AS NW FLOW BECOMES N WITH SFC LOW PRES CONSOLIDATING            
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...EXPECT -SHSN TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN UPPER MI             
MON. WITH LIMITED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C) AND             
WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW               
GROWTH TEMP ZONE...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.                   
CONSOLIDATING LOW TO THE SE MAY ALSO SPREAD A GENERAL -SN INTO THE              
ERN FCST AREA MON. -SHSN WILL CONTINUE UNDER NRLY FLOW MON NIGHT                
THEN DIMINISH TUE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LK EFFECT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER                 
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. VSBYS ARE NOW VFR AT                
BOTH SITES AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS             
ARE ANOTHER ISSUE. MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PERSIST AT BOTH SITES                
WITH NW WINDS. AS THE WINDS TURN SW THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS SHOULD            
EXIT BOTH TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A SURGE OF WARM               
AIR WILL HELP SPREAD A VFR STRATUS DECK INTO UPPER MI. THERE ARE                
SOME HINTS THAT IT COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT CMX LATE...BUT GIVEN ITS              
LATE TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION THE LOWER                
CIGS. ANY LOWERING TO MVFR MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL                
MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS                
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 25 KTS TODAY WILL                  
BECOME SW TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT               
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO DROP SE INTO THE                   
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING             
NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE             
WEST AND THEN NW ON MONDAY...STAYING GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT               
RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 30 KT MON NIGHT             
INTO TUE AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE                     
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW            
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS            
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DUE TO THIS MOVEMENT... NORTHERLY                
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE EAST HALF OF SUPERIOR               
FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER                  
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S               
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RIDGE IS TO THE LEE OF            
THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS WELL N TO THE NW TERRITORIES. A WELL-DEFINED            
SHORTWAVE HAS CUT THRU THE RIDGE AND IS NOW OVER ERN SD. IT`S ON A              
TRACK TO PASS S OF UPPER MI AND HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE WEATHER HERE.             
FARTHER UPSTREAM...TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN WRN CANADA WITH STRONG             
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA (12HR HEIGHT FALLS WERE                 
UPWARDS OF 140M AT 500MB). THIS TROF WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA AS IT DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. CLOSER                
TO HOME...LES CONTINUES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAS WEAKENED                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HRS. STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES ARE               
FOCUSING MAIN BANDS OF -SHSN INTO MAINLY ALGER COUNTY. OTTHERWISE...            
-SHSN/FLURRIES LINGER FROM THE KEWEENAW TO ERN UPPER MI. OVER SW                
UPPER MI...SKIES CLEARED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND TEMPS HAVE                    
NOSE-DIVED UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND/FRESH SNOW COVER. AS OF                  
09Z...LOWEST TEMP IS -15F AT THE WAKEFIELD RAWS SITE.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND CNTRL UPPER MI               
DRIFTING E...ONGOING LES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING UNDER               
DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE. OTHERWISE...AREAS THAT            
START THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY WHILE               
AREAS WITH STRATOCU SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. ONLY                     
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (SRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE               
COUNTIES) WHERE DEVELOPING SRLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATOCU AND SOME             
FLURRIES DURING THE AFTN. THERE WILL BE SOME CI SPILLING DOWN THE               
FRONT SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE W...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT DOES              
NOT APPEAR THAT THE CI WILL BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD. FAVORED THE             
LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM HIGHS                
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN                   
TONIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF TROF EMERGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH              
TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE N IN ONTARIO...BEST ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE PCPN WILL                 
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF              
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST              
AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS WHERE SWRLY FLOW DOWNSLOPES...                     
MINIMIZING THREAT. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS STILL LEND SUPPORT TO THIS                
POSSIBILITY AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE -10C IN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL                 
SATURATION...AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION STILL                  
OCCURRING AFTER SATURATION IS ACHIEVED. LOCAL REG-WRF RUN PROVIDES              
SOME SUPPORT...BUT GFS IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL OF -FZDZ.            
AT THIS POINT...SEE NO REASON TO PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY                     
-FZDZ...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING TO LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER                 
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE. ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A             
LITTLE SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN                
LAKE MICHIGAN AS 850MB TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH. OVER LAKE             
SUPERIOR...WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY                   
COMPONENT THAT IF SHSN DEVELOP...THEY MAY BRUSH THE KEWEENAW LATE               
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL ONLY UTILIZE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO                           
UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION...AND ALSO BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT MAY                
ONLY OCCUR N OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED. OVER NRN LAKE            
MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS BY THE TIME ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...WINDS                
WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY -SHSN E OF                     
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. MINOR HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SUN AFTN AS TROF            
EDGES E ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...HAVE A            
HARD TIME FINDING ANY FORCING SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF                
PCPN. SO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT A DRY AFTN               
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.                                                           
BETTER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS TROF REACHES THE              
GREAT LAKES WITH MID LEVEL LOW SETTLING SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY              
MON EVENING. AS BROAD SFC LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE UPPER                 
LAKES...NWRLY FLOW AND CAA WILL BEGIN SUN NIGHT. GFS IS QUICKEST                
WITH THE COOLING...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO -9/-10C OVER THE W HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LES.             
NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER...ONLY AROUND -4C. UKMET/ECMWF/REG-WRF               
FALL BTWN THE NAM/GFS...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS AND STILL MARGINALLY              
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LES. SO...WITH LIMITED FORCING...PCPN SUN NIGHT            
MAY BE TIED MOSTLY TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS.                 
PER ECMWF/GFS...AS NW FLOW BECOMES N WITH SFC LOW PRES CONSOLIDATING            
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...EXPECT -SHSN TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN UPPER MI             
MON. WITH LIMITED OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C) AND             
WITH MUCH OF THE UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW               
GROWTH TEMP ZONE...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.                   
CONSOLIDATING LOW TO THE SE MAY ALSO SPREAD A GENERAL -SN INTO THE              
ERN FCST AREA MON. -SHSN WILL CONTINUE UNDER NRLY FLOW MON NIGHT                
THEN DIMINISH TUE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LK EFFECT DIMINISHES AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SRLY              
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL            
MVFR TO IFR VSBY TO LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR CLOUDS AND                 
FLURRIES AT SAW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVR AFTER            
DAYBREAK. AFTER TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT BOTH             
SITES INTO SATURDAY EVENING.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL                
MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS                
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 25 KTS TODAY WILL                  
BECOME SW TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT               
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO DROP SE INTO THE                   
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING             
NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE             
WEST AND THEN NW ON MONDAY...STAYING GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT               
RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 30 KT MON NIGHT             
INTO TUE AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE                     
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW            
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS            
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DUE TO THIS MOVEMENT... NORTHERLY                
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE EAST HALF OF SUPERIOR               
FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER                  
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1232 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST FRI NOV 21)                                   
BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LK EFFECT THIS EVENING.              
BASED ON RADAR IMGRY...LOCALIZED BANDS ARE QUITE STRONG...LIKELY                
PRODUCING OVR AN INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES...AS STRONG OVERWATER                 
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE             
APPROACHES. RESULT IS NW WINDS ON ERN LK SUPERIOR CONVERGING WITH               
LAND BREEZES OFF BOTH UPR MI AND ONTARIO...LEADING TO SHARP                     
CONVERGENCE. PRIMARY BAND DUMPED A QUICK 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW OUT              
AT SAULT STE MARIE THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON SPOTTER REPORT ALONG LK            
SUPERIOR IN FAR NRN LUCE COUNTY AND THE OBSERVATION AT ERY IT                   
APPEARS NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING IN LUCE COUNTY. MEANWHILE                         
...CONVERGENCE BAND HAS IMPACTED FAR NRN MQT COUNTY FROM HALFWAY                
VILLAGE NORTH TO BIG BAY AND SE INTO MAINLY NW ALGER COUNTY THIS                
EVENING. DESPITE RADAR SHOWING PERSISTENT BANDING IN THESE                      
AREAS...AVILABLE WEB CAMERAS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN WAY OF VERY BAD            
VSBY OR HEAVY SNOW. OVR FAR WRN UPR MI...CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED            
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO AT OR BLO ZERO ALREADY THIS EVENING IN GOGEBIC              
COUNTY. MADE EARLIER ADJUSTMENT TO LOWER TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY 5 TO 10             
BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR SW WHERE CLEAR SKIES RULE THROUGH THE                
NIGHT. BASED ON LAST NIGHTS OBS BENEATH THE RIDGE IN MANITOBA AND               
FACT THAT PWAT MINIMUM MOVING ACROSS ONLY ENHANCES RADIATIONAL                  
COOLING AND FRESH SNOW PACK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINS AS             
LOW AS 15 BLO IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN GOGEBIC/SOUTHERN ONTONAGON/NW            
IRON COUNTY.                                                                    
FOLLOWING THE RUC13 MODEL FOR THE UPDATE AS ITS 18Z/00Z RUNS HAD                
GOOD HANDLE ON THE INCREASINGLY MESOSCALE DOMINANTED LOW LEVEL WIND             
FIELD. RUC13 INDICATES CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR SSM AND JUST TO THE                
NORTH SINKS INTO NRN LUCE COUNTY THROUGH 06Z AND THEN MERGES WITH               
THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE AREA OVR ALGER INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT THROUGH             
12Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN THE                   
HIGHEST CONVERGENCE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR.                 
WARNING FOR THESE TWO ZONES RUNS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS             
FINE. THOUGHT LUCE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING OUT TOO WITH THE POTENTIAL             
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT THROUGH TIL SHORTLY AFTER               
MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE ISSUED A LK EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THE REST OF THE             
NIGHT THERE. INCREASING LAND BREEZE EVENTUALLY PUSHES STRONGER SNOW             
SHOWERS OUT OF THE BIG BAY AREA IN MARQUETTE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH AS 925MB-900MB WINDS VEER NRLY WITH             
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING ACROSS NRN LK SUPERIOR. GOING FCST              
HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 430 PM EST FRI NOV 21)                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP TROF OVER ERN            
NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. COLD NNW FLOW (12Z H85             
TEMP -25C AT YPL VS -18C AT GRB) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES JUST E OF LK               
WINNIPEG AND LO PRES OVER SE CAN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF             
LK SUP (5C OVER THE W TO 8C OVER THE E PER GLERL ANALYSIS) CONTINUES            
TO GENERATE LK EFFECT SHSN ACRS UPR MI. THE HEAVIER SHSN ARE NOTED              
OVER THE E HALF WITH LONGER FETCH AVBL OVER THE WATER AS WELL AS                
SOME MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON OF FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON 12Z               
YPL RAOB. BUT LES ALSO CONTINUES OVER THE W DESPITE LO INVRN BASE               
ARND H9-925 AS SHOWN ON 12Z RAOB FM INL AND 12Z TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT.             
LES BANDS ARE MORE WELL DVLPD TDAY THAN YDAY OVER THE W WITH SOME               
CONFLUENCE BTWN LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF NW WI AND MORE NNW FLOW OVER               
WRN LK AS WELL AS SHALLOW MSTR BLO THE INVRN BASE SHOWN ON INL RAOB             
SUPPORTING AREA OF SC/-SN OVER NE MN MAKING BANDS A BIT MORE WELL               
DEFINED. CALLS TO SPOTTERS IN ONTONAGON COUNTY SUG THE SN UNDER THE             
BANDS IS RELATIVELY LGT WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH EVERY 3-4 HOURS               
DESPITE RELATIVELY LO VSBYS AT TIMES SHOWN BY CMX/IWD OBS. A SHRTWV             
IS NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIDING THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG AXIS.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU SAT)... (ISSUED AT 430 PM EST)                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/NEED TO CHG GOING                   
HEADLINES. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO MAINLY TEMPS WITH SFC HI PRES RDG            
TO THE W FCST FINALLY TO EASE INTO THE GRT LKS.                                 
FOR TNGT...LOOK FOR RISING UPR HGTS AS LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW UPR             
TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA GRDLY EDGING EWD...ALLOWING SFC RDG AXIS TO              
THE W TO DRIFT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS/             
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH APRCH OF RDG...EXPECT LES BANDS IN THE NW              
WINDS SN BELTS THIS EVNG TO GRDLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. ONCE WINDS                  
REALLY DIMINISH AFT 06Z...SOME MESOSCALE WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN TO              
SHOW UP. LOCAL WRF-ARW/12Z NAM/12Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY THE RUC13                
SHOW NE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO ENHANCING THE LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER               
COUNTY WITH VORTEX DVLPG NEAR P53. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OVER THE WRN            
COUNTIES THAT CONFLUENCE BTWN DVLPG LAND BREEZE OFF NW WI/SLY FLOW              
TO THE W OF SFC RDG AXIS AND LINGERING NNW FLOW OVER CNTRL LK SUP               
MAY GENERATE BAND OF SHSN IN THAT AREA THAT GRDLY SHIFTS TO THE NE              
WITH SYNOPTIC WSHFT TO THE SSW. WL CARRY NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR              
THIS EVENT OVER THE W GIVEN RELATIVELY LO INVRN BASE THERE ALREADY.             
BUT WL MAINTAIN HIER LIKELY POPS IN ALGER COUNTY FOR A LONGER PD. AS            
FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING ENDING TIME OF 03Z FOR LUCE             
COUNTY BUT EXTENDED GOING/VERIFIED WRNGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT              
LONGER TO ACCOUNT FOR PSBL SHARPER CNVGC IN PRESENCE OF HIER INVRN              
(ARND H825 THRU 09Z SAT AT P53 PER NAM FCST) THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED             
OVER THE W. OTRW...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR THE WI BORDER               
WHERE CLRG IS MOST LIKELY AWAY FM LK SUP. WL TEND AOB THE LO END OF             
MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE SOME SUB ZERO READINGS. MORE             
NLY H925 FLOW OFF LK SUP MAY MAINTAIN MORE CLD/HIER TEMPS OVER THE              
NCNTRL.                                                                         
AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E ON SAT WITH A SLOW DEPARTURE OF             
THE ERN TROF...THE LLVL FLOW WL TURN TO THE S AND END LINGERING LES.            
OTRW...FCST SDNGS SHOW DRY LLVLS. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLD ON THE              
NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO                
DROP SEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST...THE DAY WL BE MOSUNNY. THE DAY WL              
BE WARMER THAN TDAY WITH DEPARTURE OF H85 THERMAL TROF...BUT HI                 
STABILITY OF FCST SDNGS/TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS AFTN IN THE NRN               
PLAINS SUG THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS WL BE MORE                   
APPROPRIATE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... (ISSUED AT 430 PM EST)            
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLE                 
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT (900-750 MB) MAY PROVIDE                 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...PER MDL RH FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME                  
PATCHY -FZDZ OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 06Z-18Z/SUN AS THE              
THE MOISTURE REMAINS BLO THE -8C ISOTHERM. WITH WSW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE            
AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WOULD BE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY FRZG             
PCPN. BY LATE SUNDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                  
MI...PER LCLY RUN REGIONAL WRF/ARW AND THE GFS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO             
MODERATE QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE             
NRN PLAINS.                                                                     
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PER 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...A               
SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE GREAT            
LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE QG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL               
LOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO              
EARLY MON. BEHIND THE LOW...SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE             
WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO                 
AROUND -8C. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LIFT FCST...MAINLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                                
TUESDAY...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY                  
REMAIN NEAR -10C...PER ECMWF/GFS BLEND...ANY LES SHOULD REMAIN ON               
THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                                 
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN                
LAKES BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF THE                
WEEK INCREASES WITH THE PATH/SPEED OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING            
SSE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...THE GLOBAL MDLS AND GFS                   
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THAT ANY PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD BE AFTER THE            
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LK EFFECT DIMINISHES AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SRLY              
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL            
MVFR TO IFR VSBY TO LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR CLOUDS AND                 
FLURRIES AT SAW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVR AFTER            
DAYBREAK. AFTER TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT BOTH             
SITES INTO SATURDAY EVENING.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                
WILL PUSH A RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH                 
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH              
THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE. AS THE HIGH MOVES                  
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN THE SOUTHEAST...A LOW OVER THE                  
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW                
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. NORTH            
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY             
INTO TUESDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF.              
LOOK FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT                
LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE               
STRONG NORTH WINDS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-085.              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ007.                 
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
508 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA... WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE              
SWING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. IT APPEARS               
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW LEVEL                  
TROUGH ARE ABLE TO WORK TOGETHER AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME MOISTURE IN               
THE FORM OF SNOWFLAKES. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON THE LATEST                  
RADAR IMAGERY... SHOWING BANDED PCPN MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL                    
FRONTOGENESIS AS ADVERTISED BY THE RUC/NAM/GFS. MOST OF THIS IS                 
VIRGA... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ARE MAKING IT TO THE              
SURFACE. EXPECT A BIT MORE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING... SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SN IN MOST               
OF THE TAF SITES... WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF                  
WINDOW OF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY PICK UP TONIGHT... THEN               
PICK UP IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN                    
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHEAST               
THROUGH MANITOBA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A LOWER CLOUD DECK BACK               
INTO THE AREA... WITH GUSTIER WINDS BY AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE                 
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN                  
PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG                 
WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO                 
CWSU ZMP FOR COLLABORATION... THEIR DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.               
INCLUDED FROM CWSU ZMP...                                                       
RADAR INDICATING SOME PCPN ALOFT IN A SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS CENTERED             
THRU THE EAST-CENTRAL MN. SINCE SURFACE IS FAIRLY DRY IT WILL TAKE              
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DROP THE CEILINGS WITH                
TIME INTO THE EVENING. JUST AS IT GETS WET ENOUGH TO CAUSE PCPN TO              
HAPPEN THEN THE SUPPORT MOVES AWAY AND COULD GIVE US UP TO SEVERAL              
HRS OF PCPN THIS EVENING. TYPE SHUD BE SNOW BUT IF IT STARTS EARLY              
ENUF IT CUD BE SOME LIQUID ALSO. WINDS HAVE BEEN VIRTUALLY CALM FOR             
SEVERAL HOURS BUT SHUD FAVOR NW ONCE THE WIND STARTS INCRG IN SPEEDS            
INTO THE EVENING. HEAVIEST PCPN CUD DROP VSBY INTO IFR BRFLY THIS               
EVENING OTRW IT SHUD BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. BY MIDNITE LOCAL IT             
SHUD BE ALL DONE WITH BREAKS INTO THE MORNING. MONDAY SHUD HAVE                 
INCRG CLOUDS NR MVFR HEIGHTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE AFTN.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                                             
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK             
PRIOR TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE QUICKLY WANES FROM               
THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON GOES MOISTURE             
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE                
CURRENT TIME BUT IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF AMPLIFYING. WEAK               
UPPER RIDGE HAS PASSED OVERHEAD WITH TROUGHING MOVING IN ON ITS                 
HEELS. MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS              
LAKES WINNIPEG AND MANITOBA WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING                          
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS              
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI                
THIS AFTERNOON EXHIBITED BY NARROW CHANNEL OF SHARP DRYING WORKING              
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW               
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST ACROSS                           
WESTERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD              
ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AND MEETS UP WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS             
EASTERN NEBRASKA.                                                               
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 21Z WILL CONTINUE              
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER MANITOBA APPEARS TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS             
/AS IS THE LOW ITSELF/ RESULTING IN A DECREASED AFFECT FROM THE LEFT            
EXIT REGION. UPPER JET CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS IOWA SHOULD                  
PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LEFT FRONT QUAD ASCENT EARLY THIS EVENING             
BEFORE THAT SHIFTS TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS               
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS THE SFC                 
INVERTED TROUGH. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF MID LEVEL                  
RETURNS WITH LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SFC OBS DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR              
THAT IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE            
EVENING AS DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE H7-H6 LAYER SAGS               
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL GO TOWARDS               
SATURATION EARLY ON...WITH A LARGE DRY WEDGE STILL SHOWING UP ON                
RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KMSP. DO EXPECT SNOW TO FALL TO THE              
SURFACE DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA BEFORE            
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DURATION OF SNOW             
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...PROBABLY JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WHICH WILL                 
LIMIT AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE FORCING BRIEF PERIODS OF                 
MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED AND A QUICK COUPLE TENTHS MAY BE                     
RECEIVED. GENERALLY ABOUT A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW ULM             
TO THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME ISOLATED             
LOCATIONS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH. AREAS ALONG THE IA BORDER MAY SEE             
LITTLE PRECIP WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR BETWEEN                
NOW AND 01Z OR SO WITH WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW WET BULB TEMPS TO BE BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE COLUMN ALLOWING                
EVAPORATIVE COOLING DURING THE TOP DOWN SATURATION TO YIELD JUST                
ABOUT ALL SNOW AT ONSET. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST            
SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAY EVEN SCATTER              
OUT FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE            
WAVE.                                                                           
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE            
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ENTERING THE ARROWHEAD BY MIDDAY. CYCLONIC                
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ATTENDANT VORT MAX WHICH             
SWINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN                      
TWO-THIRDS OR SO OF THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE                    
UNDERWAY BUT A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THE VORT             
MAX BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER WITH PWATS AROUND A            
QUARTER INCH WITH A MODEST INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WITH THE COLD            
ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS FALLING FROM -6 C TO -12 C DURING THE DAY/ THE             
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOWERS INTO THE LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE                  
CONTENT AND ASCENT. EXPECT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BE WRUNG OUT FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE               
ELEVATED AND FEEL THAT UP TO A HALF INCH MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE              
EAST CENT WI COUNTIES AND A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE                
FAR EAST CENT MN CWA.                                                           
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN              
IT IS CURRENTLY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A             
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD                
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR            
BROUGHT BY THE PASSING FRONT WILL SUPPORT TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS IN              
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FAIRLY BLOCKED            
UP SO THE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.             
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.                    
THINGS GET MORE COMPLEX INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND THROUGH THE                   
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE             
FLOW COMING INTO THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS AFTERNOONS               
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY SHARP AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING              
FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG AREAS BETWEEN 140W AND 145W AND                     
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 30N AND BEYOND. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS                
RACING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE ALEUTIANS             
WITH ANOTHER WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 30N. BOTH THE            
GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OFF BY MONDAY            
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS THE ALEUTIAN TROUGH ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER ALASKA AND DIGS TOWARDS THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE HANDLING OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED NORTHERN            
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN                        
ROCKIES...IS THE SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FROM                   
THURSDAY ONWARD. THERE ARE OTHER AFFECTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY              
BUT THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ESSENTIALLY NIL DURING THOSE              
DAYS.                                                                           
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY GIVEN THE            
LACK OF CONTINUITY AMONG THE SOLUTIONS THUS FAR. THE 12Z/23 GFS CAME            
IN WITH QUITE A CHANGE...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD IN THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM THURSDAY. THE 12/23 ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THIS               
TYPE OF EVOLUTION AS WELL...BUT IS A BIT SLOWER. THE IDEA OF A                  
TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK IS                        
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE                 
UPPER LOW WHICH SPAWNS THIS TROUGH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW             
RUNS BUT THE CHANCE OF ADDING OF POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND                  
PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY IS INCREASING.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/HP/MDB                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK             
PRIOR TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE QUICKLY WANES FROM               
THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON GOES MOISTURE             
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE                
CURRENT TIME BUT IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF AMPLIFYING. WEAK               
UPPER RIDGE HAS PASSED OVERHEAD WITH TROUGHING MOVING IN ON ITS                 
HEELS. MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS              
LAKES WINNIPEG AND MANITOBA WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING                          
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS              
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI                
THIS AFTERNOON EXHIBITED BY NARROW CHANNEL OF SHARP DRYING WORKING              
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW               
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST ACROSS                           
WESTERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD              
ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AND MEETS UP WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS             
EASTERN NEBRASKA.                                                               
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 21Z WILL CONTINUE              
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER MANITOBA APPEARS TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS             
/AS IS THE LOW ITSELF/ RESULTING IN A DECREASED AFFECT FROM THE LEFT            
EXIT REGION. UPPER JET CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS IOWA SHOULD                  
PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LEFT FRONT QUAD ASCENT EARLY THIS EVENING             
BEFORE THAT SHIFTS TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS               
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS THE SFC                 
INVERTED TROUGH. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF MID LEVEL                  
RETURNS WITH LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SFC OBS DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR              
THAT IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE            
EVENING AS DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE H7-H6 LAYER SAGS               
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL GO TOWARDS               
SATURATION EARLY ON...WITH A LARGE DRY WEDGE STILL SHOWING UP ON                
RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KMSP. DO EXPECT SNOW TO FALL TO THE              
SURFACE DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA BEFORE            
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DURATION OF SNOW             
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...PROBABLY JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WHICH WILL                 
LIMIT AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE FORCING BRIEF PERIODS OF                 
MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED AND A QUICK COUPLE TENTHS MAY BE                     
RECEIVED. GENERALLY ABOUT A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW ULM             
TO THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME ISOLATED             
LOCATIONS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH. AREAS ALONG THE IA BORDER MAY SEE             
LITTLE PRECIP WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR BETWEEN                
NOW AND 01Z OR SO WITH WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW WET BULB TEMPS TO BE BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE COLUMN ALLOWING                
EVAPORATIVE COOLING DURING THE TOP DOWN SATURATION TO YIELD JUST                
ABOUT ALL SNOW AT ONSET. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST            
SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAY EVEN SCATTER              
OUT FOR A PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE            
WAVE.                                                                           
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE            
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ENTERING THE ARROWHEAD BY MIDDAY. CYCLONIC                
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ATTENDANT VORT MAX WHICH             
SWINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN                      
TWO-THIRDS OR SO OF THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE                    
UNDERWAY BUT A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THE VORT             
MAX BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER WITH PWATS AROUND A            
QUARTER INCH WITH A MODEST INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WITH THE COLD            
ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS FALLING FROM -6 C TO -12 C DURING THE DAY/ THE             
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOWERS INTO THE LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE                  
CONTENT AND ASCENT. EXPECT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BE WRUNG OUT FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE               
ELEVATED AND FEEL THAT UP TO A HALF INCH MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE              
EAST CENT WI COUNTIES AND A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE                
FAR EAST CENT MN CWA.                                                           
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN              
IT IS CURRENTLY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A             
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD                
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR            
BROUGHT BY THE PASSING FRONT WILL SUPPORT TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS IN              
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FAIRLY BLOCKED            
UP SO THE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.             
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.                    
THINGS GET MORE COMPLEX INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND THROUGH THE                   
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE             
FLOW COMING INTO THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS AFTERNOONS               
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY SHARP AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING              
FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG AREAS BETWEEN 140W AND 145W AND                     
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 30N AND BEYOND. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS                
RACING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE ALEUTIANS             
WITH ANOTHER WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 30N. BOTH THE            
GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OFF BY MONDAY            
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS THE ALEUTIAN TROUGH ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER ALASKA AND DIGS TOWARDS THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE HANDLING OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED NORTHERN            
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN                        
ROCKIES...IS THE SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FROM                   
THURSDAY ONWARD. THERE ARE OTHER AFFECTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY              
BUT THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ESSENTIALLY NIL DURING THOSE              
DAYS.                                                                           
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY GIVEN THE            
LACK OF CONTINUITY AMONG THE SOLUTIONS THUS FAR. THE 12Z/23 GFS CAME            
IN WITH QUITE A CHANGE...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD IN THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM THURSDAY. THE 12/23 ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THIS               
TYPE OF EVOLUTION AS WELL...BUT IS A BIT SLOWER. THE IDEA OF A                  
TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK IS                        
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE                 
UPPER LOW WHICH SPAWNS THIS TROUGH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW             
RUNS BUT THE CHANCE OF ADDING OF POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND                  
PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY IS INCREASING.  ..MDB..                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MN AT              
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. AN ARC OF STRATUS CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN                     
FRINGES OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF               
SITES THIS AFTERNOON /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN AND KRWF/. NAM                 
AND RUC 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS ARE DECENTLY ILLUSTRATING THE             
STRATUS DECK...AND INDICATE THAT MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A               
BREAK IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CIGS MAY                    
LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER AT KSTC...BUT MOST SITES SHOULD BE                       
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS BY ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE A                
RETURN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP                
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. A QUICK                 
BURST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWF/KSTC TOWARD 00Z...AND              
AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BETWEEN 01Z-07Z. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FIRST                 
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...UNTIL THE PARENT LOW SINKS INTO                   
NORTHERN MN ON MONDAY...AND BRINGS ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS              
WITH IT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW                     
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF FORECAST AFTER 18Z               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDB/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                               
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON THE SNOW POSSIBILITIES                        
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN.                             
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS AND OBS INDICATING LOW                    
CLOUDS GRADUALLY ADVECTING NEWARD...WITH BACK-EDGE LIKELY TO CLEAR              
SOUTH CTRL MN IF NOT MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA                
THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN FROM THE                
WEST ORIGINATING FROM NEXT SYSTEM. WILL BE A WINDOW FOR SOME SUN                
IN SRN AND POSSIBLY ERN COMMUNITIES INTO THE EARLY AFTN. THIS                   
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AND POSITIVE 925-850MB TEMPS TO BE MIXED                
DOWN...WITH HIGHS TODAY STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S                 
ACROSS SRN MN INTO WRN WI. THESE HIGHS AND OTHERS ACROSS THE AREA               
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AND OVERALL THE WARMEST               
DAY SINCE THE 14TH.                                                             
INTEREST TURNS TO SYSTEM COMING OUT OF WY LATER THIS AFTN. THIS IS              
ANOTHER PACIFIC/ALBERTA-CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IN WNW FLOW. THE 06Z                
NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM...AND MORE IN LINE               
WITH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE AND 00Z GFS. COMPARED TO                 
THE FRI NIGHT SYSTEM WHICH DROPPED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS                 
THE AREA...THIS ONE IS NOT AS DEEP IN THE H5 HEIGHTS AND TEMPS OR               
OVERALL PV ANOMALY. HOWEVER...THIS HAS MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO                  
WORK WITH AND WILL BE IN THE DEEPENING PHASE AS IT PASSES JUST                  
SOUTH OF MN THIS EVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
ON MON WITH A STRONGER ONE DIVING IN FROM THE NW. BUT AS IT BEGINS              
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THAT UPSTREAM SYSTEM IT WILL DEEPEN THIS                 
EVE...PLACING SRN MN IN DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS                   
CORRELATES WELL WITH A LEFT EXIT REGION OF A PREDICTED 95 KT JET.               
GREATEST PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES IS FOCUSED               
OVER SOUTH CTRL MN THIS EVE WHERE MOISTENING OCCURS FAIRLY RAPIDLY              
ACCORDING TO CROSS SECTIONS. MIXING RATIOS ON THE SURFACES OF                   
UPGLIDE ARE 2 TO 2.5 G/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 150                     
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THESE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN THE FRI NIGHT                  
SYSTEM. DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS FAIRLY DEEP /50-70MB/ AND OMEGA               
IS FOUND WITHIN THAT LAYER. PROFILE BELOW THIS QUICKLY WARMS                    
HOWEVER AND SOME PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IS EXPECTED AT                     
FIRST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S                  
EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS SRN MN. FRONTOGENESIS FOR FOCUS SNOW BANDS                
DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN BUT CORRELATES WITH THE                          
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND MOISTENING MAINLY DURING THE EVE IN SRN              
MN. SO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE SNOW DOES THEREFORE EXIST.                  
BRIEF THOUGH IS THE KEY...AS SYSTEM IS ON THE MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY               
EAST. A BAND OF ONE TO TWO INCHES APPEARS LIKELY TO SET-UP                      
SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CTRL MN...WITH A BROADER AREA OF UP TO ONE INCH              
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN AND ERN MN AND INTO WRN WI.                         
MERGING SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL OFFER BACK-SIDE COLD AIR                
ADVECTION BY MON AFTN WITH CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS AND               
FLURRIES. H8 TEMPS NOT AS LOW AS IN RECENT DUMPS OF COLD AIR. SO                
TEMPS TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MON INTO TUES AND THEN               
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY TRAVELERS              
ON WEDS AND INTO THANKSGIVING...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONFIDENTLY              
PREVAIL IN THIS REGION. FRI THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE                            
UNSETTLED...WITH THE WRN LAKES SURROUNDED BY SYSTEMS OF DECENT                  
MAGNITUDE. ALL OF THEM THOUGH SEEM TO BE BLOCKING THE                           
FLOW...LIKELY PREVENTING ANY MAJOR PRECIP ON FRI AND KEEPING TEMPS              
FROM CLIMBING OR DROPPING MUCH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MN AT              
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. AN ARC OF STRATUS CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN                     
FRINGES OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF               
SITES THIS AFTERNOON /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN AND KRWF/. NAM                 
AND RUC 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS ARE DECENTLY ILLUSTRATING THE             
STRATUS DECK...AND INDICATE THAT MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A               
BREAK IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CIGS MAY                    
LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER AT KSTC...BUT MOST SITES SHOULD BE                       
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS BY ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE A                
RETURN APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP                
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. A QUICK                 
BURST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWF/KSTC TOWARD 00Z...AND              
AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BETWEEN 01Z-07Z. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FIRST                 
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...UNTIL THE PARENT LOW SINKS INTO                   
NORTHERN MN ON MONDAY...AND BRINGS ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS              
WITH IT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW                     
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF FORECAST AFTER 18Z               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MTF                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                                             
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL               
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE               
AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                       
IN THE MEANTIME...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL                     
LINGER THIS EVENING...WITH EXPANSION NORTH/EAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS              
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH. EXPECT THE                
STRATUS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS                       
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S. COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS                
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE                 
LESS EXTENSIVE. AS THE CLOUDS EXPAND NORTH/EAST...SOME SCATTERING               
MAY OCCUR IN WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE                      
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS              
AT THIS POINT...AS ATTENDANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ONLY                     
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 3SM-5SM RANGE.                                        
THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH 290K UPGLIDE                 
AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS PROGGED TO BE                     
SITUATED OVER THE CWA. A PV ANOMALY ALSO COMES INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL              
RH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE                
PRECIP TYPE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW                     
MIX...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON SUNDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL                     
AMOUNTS CIRCA ONE INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MN/WI BORDER               
INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.                            
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH                
NEXT FRIDAY...AS A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE               
CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY                   
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING                 
HOLIDAY. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING               
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED THE COURSE WITH               
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD FROM SW MN DURING THE DAY... ACROSS         
THE MSP METRO LATE AFTERNOON...AND WERE JUST ENTERING THE KRNH                  
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BRING THEM INTO KEAU LATER THIS                   
EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE ALSO LOWERED TO IFR IN FAR SW MN.                  
LATEST RUC HAS BACKED OFF ON ERODING THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS              
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EROSION IS OCCURRING IN               
NERN NEBRASKA AND HAVE INDICATED SCATTERING OUT MID TO LATE                     
MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
WITH NEXT SYSTEM.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/TDK                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1149 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
SURFACE LOW NOW IN CENTRAL SD AND MOVING A MORE E THAN SE. BEST                 
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER ATTM. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS             
FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL PUSH A BAND OF SNOW                  
THROUGH KSTC AND KMSP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS AND               
VSBYS DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL OCCUR AT KRWF AND                  
KAXN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE                         
FRONTOGENESIS TO WEAKEN OVER WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY SATURDAY.                    
ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KRNH BETWEEN 12Z AND                
15Z WITH JUST FLURRIES BY THE TIME IT REACHES KEAU. IN THE WAKE                 
OF THE LOW ON SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE                      
SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH WAA. KEPT MVFR CEILINGS FOR KRWF...KSTC AND                
KAXN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO                
KMSP AND KRNH DURING THE EVENING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST NOV 21 2008/                                  
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PER 20Z WATER VAPOR           
IMAGERY WILL BE THE FOCUS LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS IT                
CLOSES OFF AND SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. ASSOCIATED             
850-700MB OMEGA AND 2D FRONTOGENESIS BLOSSOM OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA              
AROUND 03Z...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR BETWEEN               
06Z AND 12Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. THE DYNAMICS...WHILE          
BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE...ARE SOMEWHAT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF               
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR               
LESS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY.                
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS/RUC PROGGED COBB OUTPUTS FOR KFRM AND              
KRWF.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES AT WESTERN CWA LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN            
THE LOW 20S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM           
AIR ADVECTION. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO THE            
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW/MID CLOUDS         
WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND              
FREEZING.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING              
TROUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EXPECTED. THE RELATED        
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE       
ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH           
STREAMS ACROSS MN AND WI. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS            
THE EASTERN CWA WHERE 30 POPS WERE PRESERVED...WHILE 20 POPS WERE               
ADEQUATE ELSEWHERE.                                                             
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR         
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...AS THE          
UPPER MIDWEST EXPERIENCES MID LEVEL RIDGING WHILE WEDGED BETWEEN                
CYCLONES OVER BOTH COASTS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
242 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY/S FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AND                 
TOMORROW NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE                       
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT                      
WEEKEND.                                                                        
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA LEADING TO MUCH                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES /IN MOST LOCALES/ AND HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN                
SEEN YESTERDAY. AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS            
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE/PUSH TO THE EAST...WHICH HAS HELD HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE AN                 
EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS                 
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...ALTHOUGH               
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD NOT                  
THIN MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 AND RUC 850MB RH PROGS SHOW THAT                
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER THIS EVENING ACROSS                       
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
SKIES GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HUGO TO                         
POTEAU...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN HOUR OR TWO                  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THIS AREA BEFORE A NEW BATCH OF LOW                  
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES                  
GO...WILL MONITOR THE TEMPERATURE/SATELLITE TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST                 
OKLAHOMA CLOSELY PRIOR TO ISSUING ANY FORECAST PRODUCTS AND AMEND               
FORECAST AS NECESSARY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER                 
DEW POINTS...EXPECT THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO NEAR 40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.                      
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD SHOWERS ACROSS FAR                    
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY LATE TOMORROW              
AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT /PER 295K SURFACE/. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THIS                    
REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY...WITH TIGHT                    
GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                   
LARGELY WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF                       
INTERSTATE 44...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.                             
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE                  
HEELS OF THE FRONT...WITH FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST                  
ARKANSAS FEELING THE MOST EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR. RIDGING                    
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF               
THE WEEK. GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE                
VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12Z ECMWF                
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THAT FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF              
THE WEEK...BUT THIS RUN SEEMS ANOMALOUS WITH ITS PREVIOUS                       
RUNS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED                 
THIS FOR NOW.                                                                   
MAJOR CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WAS TO DELAY               
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN                    
CONUS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MID RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT                  
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH AT LEAST                       
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES THAT EVENING                 
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH NEAR 50 DEW POINTS POKING INTO SOUTHERN                     
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN                  
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.               
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DRY SLOT                
MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH               
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS              
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA.                      
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH A HALF INCH OR MORE...ESPECIALLY                   
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ON                  
THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN WITH TOMORROW/S                 
FRONT...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND                  
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE BELOW THE MEX NUMBERS AT THIS TIME.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   35  59  42  58 /   0  10  10   0                                          
FSM   31  56  45  58 /   0  20  70  10                                          
MLC   36  58  45  59 /   0  20  30   0                                          
BVO   28  62  38  57 /   0  10  10   0                                          
FYV   27  55  43  52 /   0  20  70   0                                          
BYV   31  55  43  51 /   0  20  70  10                                          
MKO   33  58  40  58 /   0  20  30   0                                          
MIO   30  59  39  55 /   0  10  20   0                                          
F10   36  58  41  59 /   0  10  20   0                                          
HHW   39  55  54  64 /   0  30  30  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...18                                                                 
LONG TERM....22                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
656 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH                     
TODAY...KEEPING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH LAKE                
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. LOCALIZED HEAVY                
SNOW SQUALLS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HIGH                      
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT                
STORM IS SLATED FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. POST STORM                   
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RE-GENERATE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REST OF               
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
DEEP COLD AIR TRAVERSING THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT                
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC SNOWS/SQUALLS              
THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED                
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS. MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL             
IMPACT WARREN AND WESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES.                                      
SOME INTERESTING FEATURES (I.E., NARROW SNOW SQUALL BANDS) ARE                  
INFERRED BY THE 13KM RUC AND THE WRFARW AS FAR SE AS THE CENTRAL                
MTNS AT TIMES TODAY...INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER             
(SFC-1000M) THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND QPF STRETCHES ON A 300-310 DEG              
AXIS FROM NEAR KERI TO KFIG AND KUNV THIS AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...BEFORE BACKING ABOUT 10-20 DEG SHIFTING THE BAND NE                   
BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT LATER TONIGHT.                                            
MODERATELY STRONG UVVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDE NEAR...OR JUST               
UNDER THE PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH THERMAL RIBBON OF -13 TO                
-18. THE 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INDICATES THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE SQUALLS              
NEAR KUNV FROM 00Z TO 05Z SUNDAY.                                               
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION QUICKLY DROPS TO BELOW 3 KFT AGL BEFORE 12Z                
SUNDAY WITH ANY WEAK OMEGA FALLING WELL BELOW THE MAIN DENDRITIC                
SNOW GROWTH REGION.                                                             
WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND WINTER                 
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH 23Z TODAY...AND EVEN              
EXPAND THE ADVISORIES TO COVER NRN CENTRE COUNTY AND THE                        
LIKELY...MORE PERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS.                 
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...NEAR KUNV WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2               
INCHES OF WIND WHIPPED SNOW TODAY WITH HIGHLY LOCALIZED 3-4 INCH                
TOTALS POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT.                                                    
MAX TEMPS TODAY...RANGING FROM THE L20S IN THE MW TO THE MID 30S                
IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 15F BELOW NORMAL. ADDING TO              
THIS WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL                
LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE MTNS...AND IN               
THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...                                                         
AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AND SKIES GO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MANY                  
AREAS SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...THIS WILL SET US UP FOR PERHAPS               
THE COLDEST NIGHT OVER ALL THE AREA SO FAR THIS WINTER WITH THE                 
FRESH SNOW PACK.                                                                
LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15F ACROSS THE MTNS...AND               
15 TO 20 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH                     
CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE BREAKS IN THE WANING STRATO CU DECK SHOULD BE              
MOST NUMEROUS...WILL SEE THE MERCURY DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A                  
POSSIBLE YET GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF                       
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.                                                           
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT                  
COLD FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP MOVES IN                
FROM THE WEST MONDAY...REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON.                  
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF FRONT TO SUPPORT RAIN MIXED              
WITH SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS.                                                    
SYSTEM STALLS TO THE EAST AS UPPER TROUGH AGAIN DEEPENS. N/NW FLOW              
WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE                    
WESTERN COUNTIES MON NIGHT INTO WED. AS CYCLONIC FLOW                           
CONTINUES...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST.               
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW THIS LOW WILL                  
PLAY OUT...BUT REGARDLESS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL START THE                      
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE LATE IN THE PERIOD                 
WITH IMPROVEMENT IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS 06Z TAF PACKAGE AS                  
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SXNS OF                    
WEST/CENTRAL PA. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM/WRF MDL INDICATES THE SNOW                 
BAND CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST NORTH/EAST OF AN ERI-UNV LINE WILL               
BE THE MAIN BAND TO CONTEND WITH TDY. THIS DATA ALSO SUGGESTS                   
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND FURTHER                       
SOUTH/EAST TWD IPT/MDT LATER TDY. WNWLY SFC WNDS 8-12KTS WILL                   
INCREASE THIS AFTN TO 12-15KTS WITH OCNL 20-25KT GUSTS BEFORE                   
DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.                                                         
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON                      
SUNDAY...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS WRN             
PA. VFR FLYING IS XPECTED TO LAST INTO SUN NGT/EARLY MON.                       
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTN/EVE ACCOMPANIED BY                
RAIN/SNOW. THIS SYS IS FCST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO NEW                
ENGLAND TUE/WED...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO                  
MID WEEK. LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDS IN THE WEST/CENTRAL.                      
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                      
PAZ004-005.                                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
PAZ006-010-011-017-018.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT                                                              
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT                                                             
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT                                                 
LONG TERM...BEACHLER/RXR                                                        
AVIATION...STEINBUGL                                                            
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1013 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WITH SOME            
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE            
WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
LATEST SAT/RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW WEAK UPR RDG W/ AXIS FROM            
MI...THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...TO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A                
POTENT S/W TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW                   
LVLS...A WEAK RDG AXIS WAS ANALYZED N-S ACRS THE TN VALLEY...W/ SOME            
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE W OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY. DECENT H8-H7 WAA WAS            
OCCURRING ACRS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...W/ SOME SCT LGT RA                
SHWRS DEVELOPING INVOF MEMPHIS...TO PADUCAH..TOWARD NASHVILLE.                  
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE QPF FROM 00-06Z               
IN AFOREMENTIONED AREA (W/ THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED            
NONE OF THAT PRECIP.) WITH ALL THAT SAID...LTL CHANGE NEEDED TO POPS            
FOR THE PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. MID LVL CLOUDS ARE                
MOVING INTO THE WRN QUARTER OF THE FA ATTM...AND TEMP HAVE SLOWED               
DOWN OR STOPPED DECREASING UNDER THE CLOUDS. WITH STRONGER H8 WAA               
ACRS THE SW MTNS COMMENCING BY 06Z...AND CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE             
MID-UPR 30S...I DID MY BEST TO ADJUST TEMP TRENDS AND MIN TEMPS IN              
THAT AREA. ALSO...TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY ON 00Z GUIDANCE RESULTED IN              
LESS WINTRY PRECIP W/ ONSET DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...A              
WINTRY MIX W/ SLEET AN/OR FZRA IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SWRN NC                 
VALLEYS WHERE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR MAY STILL BE IN PLACE. QPF SHUD             
BE TOO LGT TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TRENDS               
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS                 
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.                               
THE HEAVIER QPF WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE 850 MB JET INTENSIFIES THE WARM                
ADVECTION. THIS 50 KT JET WILL TRAVERSE THE NC MTNS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...BUT LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN BREEZY             
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED IN               
WARM ADVECTION FLOW.                                                            
IN SITU CAD IN PLACE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP MAXES BELOW MOS VALUES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON                
THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT...PROVIDED ENOUGH MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE QUARTER            
OF AN INCH ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE TOMORROW TO AROUND AN INCH IN               
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA               
MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.               
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WILL MEAN HIGHER POPS             
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE OF LOW              
END CATEGORICAL.                                                                
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE               
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE A NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT               
BEGINS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS DROP              
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY               
DURING THE DAY WITH MEAGER WARMING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A            
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH SOME VACILLATION             
BY THE MODELS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE RAISED A DEGREE              
OR TWO. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO TUE              
NIGHT...BUT THIS RUN OF THE WETTER AND PREFERRED GFS NOW DECREASE               
MOISTURE ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENDING THE EVENT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF QPF...ADJUSTED UP IN                 
FAVORED AREAS...YIELDS SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES...WITH              
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH             
WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO THE             
SMOKIES...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.                                    
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURE A DRY SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE              
COASTAL SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING GULF SYSTEM SPREAD                
NORTHEAST OVER THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RIDGE...BUT LARGELY APPEARS             
TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. NOT MUCH WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE            
LEE WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHT RISES ARE OFFSET BY A WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE               
FLOW...HOWEVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE A GAIN OF A FEW DEGREES              
AS COLD ADVECTION ABATES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD HPC THIS FCST. UPPER LOW             
FINALLY MOVES OFF E COAST THU WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WHILE            
SFC HI SLOWLY MOVES SE DURG DAY. THIS PUTS AREA IN MOIST SE FLOW AND            
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A SFC WAVE THAT DEVELOPS            
OVER N GULF STATES THU NIGHT-FRI. EVEN THOUGH GFS TAKES SYSTEM                  
FARTHER S THAN ECMWF...HPC USED A COMPROMISE THAT BRINGS THE SFC                
WAVE ACROSS N PART OF CWA SAT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP              
TEMPS MILD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI. POPS INCREASE TO             
SOLID CHANCE FRI NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS ATTM THAT I WILL NOT PAINT A SIGNIFICANT NW FLOW SNOW                 
EVENT OVER MTNS FOR THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD WARMER HPC TEMPS                 
WHICH ARE STILL BELOW AVG BUT STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW OVER HIGHER             
MTNS FRI NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SYSTEM MOVES E OF AREA AND               
OFF THE COAST SUN WITH TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEG BEHIND IT.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AREA OF MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS OVR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN               
SWLY WAA FLOW CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE WWD THIS EVE. METARS ACRS              
TN/AL/GA ARE GENERALLY REPORTING VFR CIGS B/T 4000-8000 FT ATTM.                
BASICALLY...ALL THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THIS MOISTURE                     
GRADUALLY INFILTRATING ALL OUR TAF SITES BY ABT 13Z MONDAY...W/ VERY            
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS. KAVL MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE MONDAY                 
MORNING...OTHERWISE...CIGS SHUD STAY VFR UNTIL AT LEAST WHEN PRECIP             
BEGINS. PRECIP ONSET IN THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LATER (AROUND 18Z)             
WITH LATEST RUNS. HOWEVER...STRONG WAA BEGINS BY 06Z...AND SOME LGT             
DZ/SHRA COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK IF MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENUF.            
SFC TEMPS IN KAVL ARE FCST TO BE AOB FREEZING MONDAY MORNING. SO                
TRENDS IN TEMPS/PRECIP WILL CONT TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE CASE            
OF FZDZ/FZRA DEVELOPING THERE. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV FREEZING                   
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL SITES...SUCH THAT ALL PRECIP SHUD BE               
JUST RAIN BY 15Z. SWLY WNDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING               
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST BY MIDDAY.                                               
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY                        
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EVERYWHERE BUT THE NC MOUNTAINS.              
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED             
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS BLOWING UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY TO            
KAVL. THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID            
WEEK...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MIXING TO 900 MB ON SW FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP                
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN                
YIELD SEVERAL HOURS OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH GIVEN THE WARMER MAX                 
TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
     MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050.                                                
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEO                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...ARK/HG                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...HG                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
914 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...IT WAS CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING,                
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED. 00Z OHX              
SOUNDING SHOWED PESKY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 750-650MB LAYER,                
AND LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CLOUDY SOLUTION FOR                 
THE REST OF THE NIGHT (OR AT LEAST THE ONE THAT`S CLOSEST TO                    
CURRENT SATELLITE TREND).                                                       
WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT CLOUD FORECAST AND KEEP IT MOSTLY                
CLOUDY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING              
ALL OTHER AREAS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO TWEAK TEMPERATURE FORECAST,                  
INCLUDING RAISING TEMPERATURES EAST, WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO               
HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE      24  54  39  50 /   0   0  60  90                                 
CLARKSVILLE    22  52  40  51 /   0   0  70  80                                 
CROSSVILLE     22  48  32  44 /   0   0  30  90                                 
COLUMBIA       22  55  39  52 /   0   0  60  90                                 
LAWRENCEBURG   21  56  39  53 /   0   0  60  90                                 
WAVERLY        21  53  40  52 /   0   0  70  80                                 
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1148 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...               
ESPECIALLY 09 TO 15Z...WITH A MOIST SHALLOW WARM FRONT NUDGING                  
NORTHWARD AT TIMES AS SHOWERS MIX THE AIR MASS AND MOVE QUICKLY TO              
THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND AWAY                
FROM SHOWERS COULD DROP VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR DUE              
TO FOG/STRATUS. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BRING DOWN CEILINGS AND BRIEFLY                        
VISIBILITY FROM JUST EAST OF KINGSVILLE TO CRP AND TO VCT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...                 
ARE MOVING INTO THE EAST PART OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AND TARGETING               
PORT ARANSAS. OTHER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS REGION HAVE MOVED INLAND              
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY REACH NORTHWARD TO AREAS FROM BEEVILLE             
TO ALICE. A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG               
THE COASTAL BEND WITH RATHER SHALLOW INSTABILITY UP TO 650 MB. SURFACE          
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND PAST COUPLE HOURS. SUBTLE MOISTURE AND                
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.25             
INCHES THIS EVENING. BOTH GFS AND NAM DEPICT WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE                
LIFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN               
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING CROSSING SOUTH TEXAS AND A SOMEWHAT                 
STRONGER WAVE ON SUNDAY. 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS FIRST              
STRONGER WAVE OF SHOWERS WELL...AND THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER AREA                  
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH (ALONG THE COAST BUT ALSO              
LOCALLY INLAND) AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING                 
SHUNTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE BEST                 
DEEPEST INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH                       
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. LOCALIZED BRIEF                
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY               
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AS WELL. MOST AMOUNTS                 
SHOULD BE QUARTER INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED HALF TO THREE                      
QUARTERS IN TRAINING CELLS. THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO STABILIZE                
AND DRY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME SUNSHINE                
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.                    
FURTHER WEST THE SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL                
FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS PRESENT FOR THESE AREAS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH               
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA. CURRENT FORECAST              
COVERS MOST OF THIS.                                                            
00Z NAM BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH                 
DURING MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH                 
IT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS                  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING                
ALONG THE DEEP S TX COAST TO NEAR RKP. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS              
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.              
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO                     
SUPPORT SCT SHRA ALONG THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY              
MOVE NORTH ON SUN. A WEAK S/WV OVER NERN MEXICO SEEN ON RUC                     
ANALYSIS AND GFS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION LATE                  
TONIGHT AND SUN BUT A MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT MOST PRECIP TO                 
SHRAS BELOW THE INVERSION. H85 FLOW WILL TURN FROM SSE TO A MORE                
SRLY DIRECTION BY EARLY SUN AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I37 WITH CRP RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE                 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. MAV POPS LOOK OK...EXCEPT THINK POPS                  
SHOULD DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY WEST OF I-37. HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS               
(30-50%) TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST               
OF A CRP TO BEEVILLE LINE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUN.                                 
AS THE H85 FLOW VEERS MORE SWRLY SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE                       
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE MID AND UPR TEXAS COAST.                 
MAV POPS LOOK TO HIGH GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHAVED ABOUT                 
20% OFF MAV VALUES SHOWING 20-30% ONLY FOR THE ERN 3RD (JUST                    
CLIPPING CRP) SUN NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN SUGGEST LOWS               
WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOTS OF                   
STICKY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. USED A               
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUN`S HIGHS...W/ GENERALLY 70S INDICATED              
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER              
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL LEAD TO THE                 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD (LOWER 80S SOUTH/UPPER 70S                   
NORTH). THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL              
COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPGLIDE                      
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN                   
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SAGS                
SOUTHWARD OVER TEXAS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO GET               
SHUNTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                    
REDEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH              
ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW THE               
PARENT LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND               
THE ECMWF PROGGING THE FROPA TO BE EARLY SATURDAY. EITHER                       
WAY...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN                           
DISCREPANCIES...BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS EAST/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
WEST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD. MUCH COOLER                  
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY            
FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF NOVEMBER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  77  64  81  59  /  40  30  10  10  20                     
VICTORIA          58  75  62  78  51  /  40  50  30  30  10                     
LAREDO            58  77  61  80  61  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             58  78  63  82  58  /  20  20  10  10  20                     
ROCKPORT          60  75  66  78  59  /  50  40  30  20  20                     
COTULLA           55  73  60  80  54  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        58  78  63  81  59  /  30  20  10  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       62  75  66  80  61  /  50  40  20  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AT/15...SHORT TERM                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
947 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...                
ARE MOVING INTO THE EAST PART OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AND TARGETING               
PORT ARANSAS. OTHER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS REGION HAVE MOVED INLAND              
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY REACH NORTHWARD TO AREAS FROM BEEVILLE             
TO ALICE. A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG               
THE COASTAL BEND WITH RATHER SHALLOW INSTABILITY UP TO 650 MB. SURFACE          
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND PAST COUPLE HOURS. SUBTLE MOISTURE AND                
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO                  
1.25 INCHES THIS EVENING. BOTH GFS AND NAM DEPICT WEAK SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE LIFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DISTURBANCE                     
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING CROSSING SOUTH TEXAS AND A              
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE ON SUNDAY. 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING                
THIS FIRST STRONGER WAVE OF SHOWERS WELL...AND THEN SUGGESTS                    
ANOTHER AREA WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH (ALONG THE                
COAST BUT ALSO LOCALLY INLAND) AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING                 
BEFORE GETTING SHUNTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS                  
DEPICT THE BEST DEEPEST INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL                  
AREAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                     
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS FROM NOW              
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AS WELL.               
MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUARTER INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED HALF TO               
THREE QUARTERS IN TRAINING CELLS. THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO                    
STABILIZE AND DRY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME               
SUNSHINE SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS                 
WELL.                                                                           
FURTHER WEST THE SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL                
FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS PRESENT FOR THESE AREAS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH               
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA. CURRENT FORECAST              
COVERS MOST OF THIS.                                                            
00Z NAM BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH                 
DURING MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH                 
IT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                     
AVIATION...THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE BRIEF AS CIGS                
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY             
-RA/DZ AND BR. AM EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH                
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THEN CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT TO AROUND 35HFT BY                  
EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS                  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING                
ALONG THE DEEP S TX COAST TO NEAR RKP. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS              
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.              
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO                     
SUPPORT SCT SHRA ALONG THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY              
MOVE NORTH ON SUN. A WEAK S/WV OVER NERN MEXICO SEEN ON RUC                     
ANALYSIS AND GFS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION LATE                  
TONIGHT AND SUN BUT A MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT MOST PRECIP TO                 
SHRAS BELOW THE INVERSION. H85 FLOW WILL TURN FROM SSE TO A MORE                
SRLY DIRECTION BY EARLY SUN AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I37 WITH CRP RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE                 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. MAV POPS LOOK OK...EXCEPT THINK POPS                  
SHOULD DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY WEST OF I-37. HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS               
(30-50%) TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST               
OF A CRP TO BEEVILLE LINE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUN.                                 
AS THE H85 FLOW VEERS MORE SWRLY SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE                       
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE MID AND UPR TEXAS COAST.                 
MAV POPS LOOK TO HIGH GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHAVED ABOUT                 
20% OFF MAV VALUES SHOWING 20-30% ONLY FOR THE ERN 3RD (JUST                    
CLIPPING CRP) SUN NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN SUGGEST LOWS               
WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOTS OF                   
STICKY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. USED A               
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUN`S HIGHS...W/ GENERALLY 70S INDICATED              
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER              
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL LEAD TO THE                 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD (LOWER 80S SOUTH/UPPER 70S                   
NORTH). THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL              
COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPGLIDE                      
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN                   
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SAGS                
SOUTHWARD OVER TEXAS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO GET               
SHUNTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                    
REDEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH              
ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW THE               
PARENT LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND               
THE ECMWF PROGGING THE FROPA TO BE EARLY SATURDAY. EITHER                       
WAY...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN                           
DISCREPANCIES...BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS EAST/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
WEST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD. MUCH COOLER                  
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY            
FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF NOVEMBER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  77  64  81  59  /  40  30  10  10  20                     
VICTORIA          58  75  62  78  51  /  40  50  30  30  10                     
LAREDO            58  77  61  80  61  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             58  78  63  82  58  /  20  20  10  10  20                     
ROCKPORT          60  75  66  78  59  /  50  40  30  20  20                     
COTULLA           55  73  60  80  54  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        58  78  63  81  59  /  30  20  10  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       62  75  66  80  61  /  50  40  20  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AT/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE BRIEF AS CIGS               
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY             
-RA/DZ AND BR. AM EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH                
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THEN CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT TO AROUND 35HFT BY                  
EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS                  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING                
ALONG THE DEEP S TX COAST TO NEAR RKP. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS              
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.              
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO                     
SUPPORT SCT SHRA ALONG THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY              
MOVE NORTH ON SUN. A WEAK S/WV OVER NERN MEXICO SEEN ON RUC                     
ANALYSIS AND GFS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION LATE                  
TONIGHT AND SUN BUT A MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT MOST PRECIP TO                 
SHRAS BELOW THE INVERSION. H85 FLOW WILL TURN FROM SSE TO A MORE                
SRLY DIRECTION BY EARLY SUN AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I37 WITH CRP RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE                 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. MAV POPS LOOK OK...EXCEPT THINK POPS                  
SHOULD DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY WEST OF I-37. HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS               
(30-50%) TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST               
OF A CRP TO BEEVILLE LINE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUN.                                 
AS THE H85 FLOW VEERS MORE SWRLY SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE                       
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE MID AND UPR TEXAS COAST.                 
MAV POPS LOOK TO HIGH GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHAVED ABOUT                 
20% OFF MAV VALUES SHOWING 20-30% ONLY FOR THE ERN 3RD (JUST                    
CLIPPING CRP) SUN NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN SUGGEST LOWS               
WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOTS OF                   
STICKY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. USED A               
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUN`S HIGHS...W/ GENERALLY 70S INDICATED              
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER              
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL LEAD TO THE                 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD (LOWER 80S SOUTH/UPPER 70S                   
NORTH). THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL              
COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPGLIDE                      
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN                   
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SAGS                
SOUTHWARD OVER TEXAS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO GET               
SHUNTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                    
REDEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH              
ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW THE               
PARENT LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND               
THE ECMWF PROGGING THE FROPA TO BE EARLY SATURDAY. EITHER                       
WAY...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN                           
DISCREPANCIES...BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS EAST/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
WEST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD. MUCH COOLER                  
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY            
FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF NOVEMBER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  77  64  81  59  /  40  30  10  10  20                     
VICTORIA          58  75  62  78  51  /  40  50  30  30  10                     
LAREDO            58  77  61  80  61  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             58  78  63  82  58  /  20  20  10  10  20                     
ROCKPORT          60  75  66  78  59  /  50  40  30  20  20                     
COTULLA           55  73  60  80  54  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        58  78  63  81  59  /  30  20  10  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       62  75  66  80  61  /  50  40  20  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE/81...AVIATION                                                                
AT/15...SHORT TERM                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS                 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING                
ALONG THE DEEP S TX COAST TO NEAR RKP. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS              
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.              
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO                     
SUPPORT SCT SHRA ALONG THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY              
MOVE NORTH ON SUN. A WEAK S/WV OVER NERN MEXICO SEEN ON RUC                     
ANALYSIS AND GFS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION LATE                  
TONIGHT AND SUN BUT A MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT MOST PRECIP TO                 
SHRAS BELOW THE INVERSION. H85 FLOW WILL TURN FROM SSE TO A MORE                
SRLY DIRECTION BY EARLY SUN AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I37 WITH CRP RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE                 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. MAV POPS LOOK OK...EXCEPT THINK POPS                  
SHOULD DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY WEST OF I-37. HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS               
(30-50%) TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST               
OF A CRP TO BEEVILLE LINE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUN.                                 
AS THE H85 FLOW VEERS MORE SWRLY SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE                       
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE MID AND UPR TEXAS COAST.                 
MAV POPS LOOK TO HIGH GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHAVED ABOUT                 
20% OFF MAV VALUES SHOWING 20-30% ONLY FOR THE ERN 3RD (JUST                    
CLIPPING CRP) SUN NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN SUGGEST LOWS               
WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOTS OF                   
STICKY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. USED A               
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUN`S HIGHS...W/ GENERALLY 70S INDICATED              
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER             
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL LEAD TO THE                 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD (LOWER 80S SOUTH/UPPER 70S                   
NORTH). THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL              
COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPGLIDE                      
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN                   
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SAGS                
SOUTHWARD OVER TEXAS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO GET               
SHUNTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                    
REDEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH              
ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW THE               
PARENT LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND               
THE ECMWF PROGGING THE FROPA TO BE EARLY SATURDAY. EITHER                       
WAY...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN                           
DISCREPANCIES...BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS EAST/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
WEST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD. MUCH COOLER                  
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY            
FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF NOVEMBER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  77  64  81  59  /  40  30  10  10  20                     
VICTORIA          58  75  62  78  51  /  40  50  30  30  10                     
LAREDO            58  77  61  80  61  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             58  78  63  82  58  /  20  20  10  10  20                     
ROCKPORT          60  75  66  78  59  /  50  40  30  20  20                     
COTULLA           55  73  60  80  54  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        58  78  63  81  59  /  30  20  10  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       62  75  66  80  61  /  50  40  20  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJG...SHORT TERM                                                                
TM...LONG TERM                                                                  
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
835 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST SEEMS LARGELY ON TRACK IN REGARDS TO OVERNIGHT SNOW              
POTENTIAL...THOUGH MAY NEED SOME REDUCTIONS IN SNOW CHANCES                     
OVERALL IF VISIBILITIES WITH ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY BAND OVER SCNTL              
MN DON/T DROP ANY MORE THAN CURRENT 3-5SM IN LIGHT SNOW /FLURRIES/.             
CURRENTLY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRUNG OUT FROM WRN IA INTO SRN NEB                
STREAKING EAST WHILE MORE POTENT CIRCULATION CROSSES EASTERN                    
MANITOBA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING THIS HOUR AS THESE                      
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOUR WITH MAIN                   
TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT                    
REFLECTIVITIES ON KARX/KMPX RADAR FROM SERN TC METRO DOWN THE I-35              
CORRIDOR ABOUT 50-75MI BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS                       
APPROACHING WINONA/DECORAH LINE...WITH FORCING FOR THIS BAND OF                 
ECHO MANIFESTED IN 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. LIFT NOT NEARLY AS                  
ROBUST AS SEEN ON PVS NAM-WRF RUNS...AND QPF BECOMING MORE SCANT                
WITH EVERY MODEL RUN. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE BEEN               
ON SLOW DECREASE WITH LAST RUN. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS OF RUC13                  
/NAM-WRF AND SEVERAL LOCALLY RUN MESO-WRFS...SHOW BAND OF LGT SNOW/FLURRIES     
IN MPX FORECAST AREA WILL PULL SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF                
I-90 THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE INFLUX OF MOISTURE                 
ARRIVING INTO SRN WISCONSIN LINKS UP A SECONDARY AREA OF LGT SNOW               
DEVELOPING OUT OF ECNTL IA/NRN IL LATER TONIGHT. SO...CURRENT SNOW              
CHANCES LOOK GOOD...MAYBE A TAD TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES. WILL BE                
TOUGH TO MEASURE SNOW MUCH PAST A DUSTING/COATING IN MANY AREAS GIVEN           
TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING AND SATURATION SLOW TO COME THUS FAR.               
BETTER CHANCES OF 1 INCH-TYPE ACCUMS STILL LOOK OVER FAR SERN                   
FORECAST AREA /SWRN WI/ LATE TONIGHT.                                           
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1242 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND                
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF              
THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AROUND 10Z ITS POSSIBLE TO HAVE              
VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE STRATOCU FROM 5 TO 7               
KFT WILL STREAM IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK LAND BREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST                
COAST TERMINALS...MORE LIKELY FOR KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB. THE EAST                
COAST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EASTERLY SEA BREEZE NEAR 12                 
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
60                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...ON A MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS NEEDED THIS EVENING TO                   
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS, HOWEVER THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE BAY AND ATLANTIC       
ZONES. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS UNCHANGED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                    
REMAINS ON TARGET. /TINGLER                                                     
MARINE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC                   
ZONES REMAINING MARGINAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, AND INDEED                 
FOWEY HAS BEEN AT 20 TO 23 KNOTS THIS EVENING FOR THE PAST FEW                  
HOURS. SO, HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND KEEP THE SCA GOING                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES. ADDED THE BAY                 
SINCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE MIAMI-               
DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS WILL THE ZONES MOST AFFECTED SINCE              
THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER ALSO KEPT THE PALM BEACH          
WATERS IN AS WELL DUE TO A RECENT SHIP REPORT OF 20KTS. /TINGLER                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS                  
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING WINDS. ALL                 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                      
RESULTING ENE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...                 
WHICH MAY BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND BREEZE. AT                 
THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE NO LAND BREEZE AT PBI/FLL...AS EASTERLY               
FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT A PENETRATION THIS                
CLOSE TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND...WILL                
INDICATE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS               
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AT               
KAPF...WITH ESE FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                    
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CONDS OF FEW050/SCT070              
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ENOUGH THREAT FOR SHRA TO                 
INCLUDE VCSH ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.                                    
MANY THANKS TO ZMA CWSU FOR EXCELLENT THOUGHTS AND INPUT FOR THIS               
FORECAST.                                                                       
70/DD                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                 
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN OUR PREVAILING WINDS                
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH                 
BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT TOO BULLISH ON THIS. KEPT SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE                
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                     
MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS AGAIN ON THE LAND BREEZE AND               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.                  
GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE WRF DO NOT SHOW THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING                 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SO WE                   
BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR. THE NAM/WRF LOOK WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH                 
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND THEY START THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND                    
BREEZE EARLY ON BEFORE THE WINDS SURGE TAKES OVER SWITCHING WINDS               
BACK NE. SINCE THIS SURGE LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO                      
DISCOUNT THIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS                  
AGAIN EXPECTED IN A STILL RATHER DRY AIRMASS...DECIDED TO BRING                 
THE LAND BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COAST...REASON BEING THAT IT MADE                
IT TO THE COAST JUST FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING...AND ANY SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN THE NE-E WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD HOLD IT AT BAY. SHOULD                
MENTION THAT THE RUC IS ACTUALLY FOLLOWING RIGHT ALONG WITH OUR                 
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THE FCST ON THE LAND BREEZE               
HAS IS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...AS IT CAN FLUCTUATE 5-10F DEGREES                
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW                      
MORNING`S.                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MON NIGHT LOOKS              
TO BE MOST OPTIMAL...AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                             
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING BY ON                 
TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS WARM FINALLY TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. THE DRY NOVEMBER WEATHER                  
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING                
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE                  
MODEL...AND JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THE              
PARADE OF FRONTS LOOK TO CONTINUE.                                              
MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE                     
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS GULF STREAM SEAS WILL                 
LIKELY NOT START SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO              
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A MORE NE DIRECTION BEFORE                 
BECOMING EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NEXT                
FEW DAYS WILL SLACKEN LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. THE               
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SWITCHING                
WINDS TO W-NW...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A BRIEF WIND SURGE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND IT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT AND NOT                
TOO PROLONGED.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE BEEN DOWN AGAIN TO NEAR 40 PERCENT AS                  
SOME DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST A TAD                  
ON MONDAY. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL               
TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT               
IN CRITICAL RH`S. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BECAUSE TUE WILL              
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND IF MORE DRYING OCCURS BETWEEN              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...THEN RH`S COULD              
FALL LOWER THAN FCST. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE                  
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED DEW POINTS/RH`S                     
DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME...WHICH DROPS DEW              
POINTS TO THE LOWER 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S SE. WE LIKELY              
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN COMING FCSTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  75  60  79  57 / 20 20 10 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  79  61 / 20 20 10 10                                   
MIAMI            77  62  80  62 / 20 20 10 10                                   
NAPLES           76  61  77  57 / 10 10 10 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-               
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                               
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...15/JR                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
316 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING FAR SE IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND              
LIGHT PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH              
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE STATE TODAY.THE GFS/RUC ARE MORE                  
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA IN NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO               
THE NAM. THE NAM INITIALIZED A BIT TOO WARM REGARDING THE AIRMASS TO            
THE NORTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR              
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS WAS CLOSE TO THE FWC/NGM MOS WITH SOME MINOR              
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OUT              
OF THE AFTERNOON STRATOCU IN THE MCW/ALO AREAS...ALTHOUGH RH IN THE             
SPZ IS MARGINAL. SOUNDINGS GO DRY ADIABATIC TO NEAR 850MB...AND                 
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUGGEST GUSTS INTO THE 30S.                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG...WILL DIVE SOUTH               
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION             
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TAGGING ALONG               
THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE TO SQUEEZE A FEW FLURRIES OUT THIS EVENING                
NEAR MCW AND ALO. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE             
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SYSTEMS CONNECTION AT THE SFC                
WILL NOT BE WELL ESTABLISHED WITH LITTLE SFC REFLECTION BESIDES A               
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. THE SYSTEMS BIGGEST EFFECT ON                   
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID               
LEVELS BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 925-800 MB.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY WITH AN                 
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB AND COOLER THAN TODAY WHEN BETTER MIXING                 
OCCURS. THE UPPER LOW WILL LINK UP WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW MOVING            
THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND MISSOURI AND CREATE A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER            
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND WILL SLOW THE FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST                  
TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BE             
IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND                 
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                                          
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH IOWA ON                    
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS                   
ANTICIPATED TO TAKE PLACE BELOW 900 MB AND EFFECTIVELY STRENGTHEN               
THE INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON                    
THURSDAY TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH MIXING ONLY TO 950-925 MB. THE 06Z            
NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON                    
THANKSGIVING DAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT GOOD TRAVELING CONDITIONS ON              
THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG SOLUTIONS REMAIN FRIDAY AND INTO               
THE WEEKEND THOUGH OVERALL TRENDS ARE TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS SYSTEM EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING                 
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE               
GEM IS CURRENTLY FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION TO NEAR THE              
IA/MO BORDER.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...24/06Z                                                              
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AT 24/05Z OVER SOUTHEAST IA WILL                
LIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS              
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA            
BY 09Z.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THAT TIME WITH GRADUAL              
IMPROVEMENT AFT 09Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFT 18Z.           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KINNEY/FAB                                                
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1157 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...FIRST THING TO MENTION IS THE SMOKE ISSUE AT KLCH                   
WHICH BROUGHT VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE FOR A FAIR CHUNK OF THE              
EVENING. VISIBILITY HAS RISEN BACK TO 10SM RECENTLY BUT HAVE                    
INCLUDED PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IN CASE                  
SMOKE RETURNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VIS ALL                  
SITES ON AT LEAST AN OFF AND ON BASIS OVERNIGHT.                                
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA MOVING               
NE TOWARD THE UPPER SE TX/SWRN LA COAST. HAVE CONTINUED EARLIER                 
TREND OF BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO KLCH/KBPT BY                     
SUNRISE AND BY MID-MORNING FOR REMAINING TAF SITES. EXPECT RAIN TO              
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WEST TO EAST FROM               
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES/VFR BY                
LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                                             
25                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ONLY UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING IS TO POPS/WX/QPF. RADAR                  
MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF                    
HOUSTON/GALVESTON BAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NE AND BOTH              
RUC AND NAM APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH                      
INCREASING PRECIP OVER OUR SWRN ZONES AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS                
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SFC BECOMES MORE SWRLY.                     
LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
EVENING...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE              
TX ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF CAMERON. REMAINDER OF                
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. 24                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE IS TIMING OF                
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS...          
MUCH OF IT PROBABLY JUST VIRGA ATTM...OVER THE GULF OFF THE MIDDLE              
TEXAS COAST MOVING NWD. MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW PRECIP SPREADING OVER            
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST STARTING TOWARD 12Z...                     
ALTHOUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WETTER AND              
FASTER THAN THE NAM. THUS HAVE TIMED THE PREVAILING POPS IN THE                 
TAFS WITH THIS IN MIND. BUT UNTIL THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST                   
STUCK WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT              
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AS WINDS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PREVENTING              
FOG FORMATION.                                                                  
25                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...A RATHER MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS                
THE REGION. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WARMING                 
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S                       
NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20                
DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF 24 HOURS PRIOR. LOCAL RADAR INDICATING JUST               
A BIT OF VIRGA OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.                                          
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. LATEST MOS                  
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS/POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. WILL                 
HOWEVER MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP OMEGAS/LIFT ALSO              
ACCOMPANYING FRONT. SUFFICIENT SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT           
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS.                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN           
FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH APPEARS               
LIKELY PER LONG RANGE MODELS ON FRIDAY.                                         
AVIATION...OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON      
INTO THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT                 
WAVE PULLS EAST PAC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR BETWEEN                
THE SURFACE AND 10K FEET...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST              
SOME SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT                 
VFR LEVELS.                                                                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA. THESE                
WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES WITH GUIDANCE TIME                     
HEIGHTS SHOWING OVER 80 PERCENT RH BETWEEN THE SURFACE TO OVER 20K              
FEET BY 24/12Z. THIS WILL HELP LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN                 
3K-5K FEET WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15 AND                
20 KNOTS AND SOME LIFT SEEN BY PROGGED PVA IN THE LOW LEVELS...ANY              
FOG FORMATION WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.    
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 24/12Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST AS STRONGER LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAPS INTO               
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.                                                          
RUA                                                                             
MARINE...A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN              
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG                 
OFFSHORE FLOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  60  73  47  69  44 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
KBPT  62  74  46  70  44 /  30  70  10   0  10                                  
KAEX  58  69  42  67  40 /  20  70  10   0  10                                  
KLFT  58  71  48  66  43 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN               
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...MVFR             
CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR CIGS.                    
THEN...AS NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AND COLD AIR MOVES IN             
ALOFT...-SHSN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KCMX IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY BE             
POSSIBLE AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NNE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SFC LOWS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
505 AM PST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA                 
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...BRINGING              
WET WEATHER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF              
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO               
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING            
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A                 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF 140 W THIS MORNING WITH SPLITTING              
FLOW EVIDENT AND AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH                
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH             
THIS FEATURE...BRINGING THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE COAST...ALTHOUGH               
WHILE NAM AND GFS BRING AN OPEN WAVE ONSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY THE                
ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS ALL SOLUTIONS            
POINT TOWARD A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AS MOIST FLOW WRAPS             
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH TO                   
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN VORT MAX IS HEADED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND            
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS WELL. GFS            
IS STILL HINTING AT SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED INTO               
THE FLOW AND HEADING NORTHWARD...BUT CERTAINLY NOT IN THE MANNER OF             
A CLASSIC PINEAPPLE CONNECTION. MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWING TREND SO            
TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND ALLOWED            
CHANCE POPS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL                 
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION...AND                
BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD VEGAS AND THE 4 CORNERS STATES. THIS               
WILL ALLOW SOME ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC               
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW             
HEADS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.                                                
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE            
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. TIMING HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT TO                
FAVOR PRECIP AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA ON               
THURSDAY...SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT....AND DECREASING              
TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ALL INDICATE             
A LOW FORMING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN               
PACIFIC. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE GFS AND EC ARE JOINED BY THE CANADIAN              
IN FORMING A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN                               
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA VICINITY...AS A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO              
BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY THE GFS IS MOST                     
AGGRESSIVE IN WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE             
SOUTH OF 30 N. THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FAVORS DRY WEATHER FOR                     
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. CMC                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 10Z RUC ANALYSIS CONFIRM WEAK              
OFFSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IS IN PLACE KEEPING FOG AND                  
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO               
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDITIONS             
IN THE FORECAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY             
AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE                    
NORTHWEST. BK                                                                   
.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF                
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE               
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF NORTHEN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE                
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD              
IN NORTH OF THE AREA. A MIXED SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATER             
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT            
SWELL WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 6 FT...WITH A SOUTHERLY             
SWELL MOVING IN AT 3 FT. PERIODS WILL BE 11 SECONDS OUT OF THE WEST             
AND 6 TO 7 SECONDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL                 
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BEGINS TO BUILD             
TO NEAR 12 FT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT LIVED HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PAC NW. PERIODS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF              
15 SECONDS SO NOT EXPECTING A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING JUST AN                    
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER LARGER SWELL              
TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. BK                              
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                       
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1118 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO            
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE               
SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.              
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MIDWEEK ON.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
915 AND 1015 AM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID TRENDS THIS MORNING. RUC              
13 VIA TSECS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND NEAR TERM CLOUD BANDS           
NR 7000 FT. GRIDS MODIFIED.                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS LOW            
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH           
CLOUDINESS...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING             
OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...WE MAY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE             
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL           
DAYS AS THE FLOW GOES SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS WARMS. EVEN STILL...HIGH            
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WERE DERIVED            
FROM A BLEND OF NAM 2M TEMPS AND MAVMOSGUIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE               
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
1110 AM... ISSUING HIGH WIND WATCH BOSTON TO MANCHESTER AND POINTS              
EAST TO CAPE ANN. SE WIND HIGH WIND CASES IN OUR CLIMO ARE RARE BUT             
MARGINAL HIGH WIND CASE ENVISIONED PER MODEL PRES CHANGES... LAPSE              
RATES...BL AND 925 MB WINDS BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM. NAM BL WINDS ARE UP TO            
38 KTS NOW AT CONCORD. THAT SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BUT PER COLLAB WITH             
GYX...ADDED ASH TO MHT. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT POWER                
OUTAGES AND SUSTAINED WIND 40 OR GREATER IS MQE AND BOS TO LWM REGION           
EWD. MAY SEE GUST 60 KTS AT MQE. WIND ADVY WILL BE ISSUED REMAINDER             
I95 REGION OF RI AND MASS AT 4PM.                                               
REMAINDER BLO FROM 4AM...                                                       
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE                 
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST           
TO EAST...STARTING IN THE CT VALLEY SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND                    
06Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION            
TYPE WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF NW MASS AND SW NH MAY SEE A           
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE START. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.           
ATTM...THE THINKING IS THAT THE SFC TEMPS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO                
ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IF ANY AT ALL. IT WOULD BE           
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL ZONES            
BY LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL             
JET GETS GOING.                                                                 
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE                
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS. BEST GUESS AT THIS               
TIME IS THAT A GENERAL .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL...WITH               
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULDN/T CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING                
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WE/LL LIKELY SEE THE NORMAL MINOR URBAN/POOR                
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                        
THUNDER...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AS WEAK INSTABILITY           
MAY DEVELOP AS THE LLJ PUMPS NORTHWARD A DECENT PLUME OF THETA-E.               
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE THE WINDS...AS A 65 KNOT                 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPEEDS OF WIND               
ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT ISOLD MARGINAL HWW CRITERIA TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF EASTERN                
MASS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE AFFECTED AS WELL. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS             
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS. ANY CONVECTION                
COULD BRING DOWN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SFC            
TEMPS REALLY WARM UP.                                                           
THERE MAY BE A 1-2 FOOT SURGE ON THE SOUTH COAST BAYS WITH THE STRONG           
SOUTHERLY LLJ....BUT TIDES ARE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS NOT OVERLY                
IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...NO COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MODEL MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY LOOKED TOO LOW. THESE SOUTHERLY LLJ                 
EVENTS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS AND             
EVEN MODEL 2M TEMPS INDICATE. WENT FOR MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI           
AND PORTIONS OF CT. COOLER TEMPS /40S - LOW 50S/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS           
THE INTERIOR ALTHOUGH IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE             
RAISED AS WELL.                                                                 
OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUE EVENING.  NAM              
IS THE SLOWEST MOVING THE OCCLUSION THROUGH AND BRINGS A SLUG OF                
HEAVY RAIN TO E MA INTO SE NH AT THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ.             
CONSENSUS AMONG OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION             
SO WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH LIFTS THE HEAVIER RAFL NORTH AND EAST             
OF SNE BY TUE EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER                  
ACROSS NE ZONES NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY TO              
CATEGORICAL POPS TUE EVENING FROM SW NH THROUGH E MA WITH LOWER POPS            
FURTHER SW AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN.  ALSO...GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS             
SUGGEST ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E MA THROUGH SE NH.                     
TREND TUE NIGHT WILL BE FOR DECREASING POPS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES               
THROUGH. WIND MAY STILL BE A CONCERN TUE EVENING FROM CAPE COD                  
THROUGH CAPE ANN WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LLJ AND WILL HAVE                 
HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS REGION. COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TUE             
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MIN             
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL                 
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
CLOSED LOW LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA WED. MAY GET ENOUGH DRYING FOR SOME            
SUNSHINE WED MORNING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. CANT RULE OUT A FEW RA/SNW SHOWERS AS               
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS          
NW ZONES CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED              
WED.                                                                            
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE            
END OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF NOW MOVES CLOSED LOW BACK SWD ACROSS NEW ENG            
BUT THIS IS THE OUTLIER AS GFS/UKMET/GGEM KEEP LOW WELL TO THE NORTH            
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY FRI.  FOLLOWED CONSENSUS AND             
WILL HAVE DRY FCST FOR THU/FRI WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.                           
UPPER VORTEX SETS UP NEAR JAMES BAY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE              
TROF ACROSS GT LAKES BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE              
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH.  ECMWF/GFS HAVE A STORM FOR            
THE WEEKEND BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY WET.  WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS               
FOR SAT/SUN ALTHOUGH ECMWF DRIES IT OUT FOR SUN.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
TODAY...VFR OCNL CIGS NEAR 7000 FT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST PERSISTENT DECK OF 7000 FT ALONG AND N OF MASS            
PIKE.  SLY GUSTS NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN.                                          
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL                  
GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST             
STARTING THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP MAY NOT MAKE IT TO BOSTON UNTIL               
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THEN             
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN POSSIBLY IFR LATE.                                     
TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.            
LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN RI AND EASTERN MASS AS              
SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE. ESE SFC WINDS LIKELY GUST 40       
KT RI/EASTERN MASS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON AREA 17Z-22Z. LLWS PROBLEM               
PVD TO MHT EWD.                                                                 
LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN RAIN TUE EVENING ESPECIALLY MHT-BOS-HYA-                  
ACK...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. STRONG SE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM BOS-            
HYA-ACK TUE EVENING.                                                            
OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                 
MAINLY VFR WED THROUGH FRI.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET DAY TODAY ON THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.           
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.                                       
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN                 
MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS                
STARTING AT 06Z TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...ALTHOUGH GALES MAY NOT ARRIVE           
ON NORTHERN WATERS TIL A BIT LATER ON.                                          
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER             
LOOKING OVER ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...DECIDED TO GO WITH STRONG GALES           
ON ALL WATERS INSTEAD OF STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED GUST NR 50 KTS MERR RVR           
TO NEAR BOSTON HARBOR WATERS TUE AFTN. LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN                  
INHIBIT BUT PRES GRAD AND TURB MXG MAY ALLOW FOR GST 50KTS....ESP               
MERR RIVER REGION.                                                              
HOWEVER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LATER             
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS.            
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUILD UP TO 15 FEET...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED            
TO SEE 44008 AND 44018 TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET.                          
STRONGEST WINDS BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN WATERS EAST OF            
CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD WHERE STRONG SE GALES LIKELY INVOF LLJ.  GUSTS             
TO 45 KT POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DECREASE AS OCCLUSION            
MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WILL HAPPEN BY TUE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN                
WATERS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT EASTERN WATERS.  SEAS UP TO 15 FEET OUTER            
EASTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT.                                                       
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                       
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED THROUGH FRI...MOSTLY FROM             
A WESTERLY DIRECTION.  A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED WED OVER             
THE EASTERN WATERS.  HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.                                                    
NH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR NHZ012.                                                                
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-         
     254-255.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER                                                          
NEAR TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                         
SHORT TERM...DRAG/EKSTE 1117                                                    
LONG TERM...KJC                                                                 
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG/EKSTER 1117                                                 
MARINE...KJC/DRAG/EKSTER 1117                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER                 
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. MAIN FEATURE OF                
NOTE IS A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-SECTION              
OF THE COUNTY/MS VALLEY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY DROPPING            
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY IS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY                
WITH MARKED DRYING IN ITS WAKE EXPANDING ACROSS OK AND MO. ANOTHER              
STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN               
ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONSOLIDATE               
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS INTO AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ON                  
EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WE FIND LONGWAVE RIDING ALONG BOTH THE               
EAST AND WEST COASTS. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO SEEN                
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. LARGE               
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS COMBINING WITH             
THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS WWA IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO               
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO              
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.                                                 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST                   
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE               
EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR                
NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS                
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN               
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.                               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO                    
APPROACH THROUGH THE DAY WILL EXPECT THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE                
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND            
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE A SLOWER PROCESS THE FURTHER EAST ONE             
GETS AND STILL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WELL INTO THE                   
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND FROM PERRY TO CROSS CITY.              
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITES AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF               
THIS FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY                 
TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED FORCED ASCENT               
DOES NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER             
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL NEAR                
DARK AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY               
LIMITED WITH SREF PROBS OF EVEN 500 J/KG HOLDING BELOW 5% OVER LAND.            
HOWEVER...THERE IS INITIALLY SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT PROGGED            
BY GUIDANCE AS SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER THE WESTERN                 
ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND WOULD NOT BE                  
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF                      
SHOWERS...HOWEVER ANY STRONG STORM POTENTIAL APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY.              
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND NEAR OR                  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS              
PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH                
ORGANIZES WELL TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT                
OVERHEAD ALL BUT COLLAPSES. MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT             
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN             
MIND SHOULD EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER             
THE WEST THIS EVENING TO WEAK AND THIN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW A LESSENING OF THE ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL NOT BRING THUNDER                   
MENTION EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. FAR EASTERN AREA FROM                   
VALDOSTA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ONLY SEE A QUICK                 
LINE OF LIGHTER SHOWERS PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE              
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.                                                     
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND                
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLOUDS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE                
MORNING. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALMOST                    
REGION-WIDE WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH TEMPS IN              
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING                
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH LATER                
TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH             
A SHARP WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE             
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WITH A PERIOD OF                  
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY                 
FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY                
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS                 
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF               
OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS              
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT                 
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS (6-12K FT) WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY             
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER             
FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN               
LESS THAN 10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL AFFECT KDHN BY LATE            
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN THE REST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.            
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE SHRA.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  68  44  65  31  63 /  20  50  00  00  00                           
PANAMA CITY  69  48  64  34  64 /  40  60  00  00  00                           
DOTHAN       66  41  63  31  62 /  50  60  00  00  00                           
ALBANY       65  42  62  31  59 /  30  60  00  00  00                           
VALDOSTA     69  43  64  31  63 /  10  50  00  00  00                           
CROSS CITY   72  48  65  31  65 /  10  30  05  00  00                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN ALL ZONES.                                          
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
553 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
307 AM CST                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD                      
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHETHER ANY OF THE POSSIBLE SNOW WILL                    
ACCUMULATE OVER MONDAY MORNINGS RUSH HOUR. THE NAMS WARMER                      
SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE WINNER WITH THIS               
EVENT AS THE SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW HAS PROPAGATED INTO EASTERN                 
IOWA LEAVING OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE TIME BEING.                  
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL                        
TEMPERATURE PROFILES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ACARS                
SOUNDING OUT OF ORD SHOWING TEMPS UP TO 44F AT 4KFT. TEMPERATURES               
ACROSS THE REGION REALLY ARENT AS COLD AS YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE                 
FOR A SNOW EVENT...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO FACT THAT THERE ISNT A                
STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH...RATHER ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT IS                   
BOGARTING ALL THE COLD AIR. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S              
BACK IN THE DAKOTAS AND 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 0 TO -2 FROM                     
DUBUQUE BACK TO FARGO. ALL IN ALL...FEEL AS THOUGH THIS DOESNT                  
HAVE THE BEST SETUP BUT WITH ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND                     
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW                
THAT SOME VERY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS                          
MORNING...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH UP ALONG THE WISCONSIN                     
BORDER.                                                                         
A FEW OBS HAVE COME IN WITH UNKNOWN PRECIP...BUT THIS AND                       
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS                 
JUST BEEN RAIN SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS OF 3AM...MOST OF THE SNOW                
WAS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UP TOWARD MSN AND WEST OF                    
THERE. WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY SNOW THIS MORNING FROM                   
12-15Z WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL                 
KEEP SOME VERY MINOR TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION UP ALONG THE WI/IL                  
BORDER SINCE SOIL TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S WITH THE RECENT               
COLD SPELL WE HAVE BEEN UNDER MOST OF NOVEMBER. SNOW RATIOS WILL                
BE VERY LOW...ON THE ORDER OF 9 TO 1 OR LESS WITH THE WETNESS OF                
THIS SNOW.                                                                      
AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIP SHOULD COME                
TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE 18Z AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO                   
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND LET THE SUN OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD               
HELP TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY CLIMB UP TO AROUND 40 OR SO. SKIES                 
WILL CLOUD UP AGAIN TOWARD EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW                 
DIVES DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN ON INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND                     
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS COLD PUNCH OF AIR ALONG WITH SOME                  
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE               
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.                         
AFTER ALL THIS EXCITEMENT PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS                    
OUT...OUR REGION WILL BE LEFT IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                  
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR ANY TRAVELERS                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR THROUGH               
THIS PERIOD AND DRY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS               
TIME OF YEAR.                                                                   
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1200 UTC TAFS...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY               
SNOW THIS MORNING AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING QUICKLY DROPS THE LOWER                
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING. ACARS DESCENT SOUNDING                 
INTO ORD AT 11Z DEPICTS THIS WELL.  BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE                    
DROPPED TO IFR OR LIFR AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES                     
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE RH VALUES                
DROPPING RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS CONDITIONS               
WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY MID-DAY...THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SNOW              
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS. WINDS WILL                   
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A                    
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK END OF THE LOW SPINS ACROSS THE AREA                   
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.                                                  
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
326 AM CST                                                                      
A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING                
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND STRENGTHEN                
ABOUT 10MB BY THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING               
OUT OF CANADA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                 
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS              
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE                 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY                 
WINDS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
WEEK.                                                                           
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ745...NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                
     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-                   
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM MONDAY TO                 
     6 PM TUESDAY.                                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744...NOON           
     MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO                
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY UPPER LOW                
WILL MERGE WITH S/WV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI FORMING BROADER UPPER LOW            
OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN                 
LOWER MI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY THE END OF              
THE DAY.  BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE                   
FEATURES HAS MOVED INTO LAKE MI.  BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS               
AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF A MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY LINE AND EVEN                
THERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO ACCOMPANY             
IT. WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD UPPER LOW TRACK EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF              
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CENTRAL AREAS                  
REMAINING PRECIP FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 85H TEMPS WILL FALL              
INTO THE -8 TO -10 RANGE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AS WINDS                
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY DO EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR              
IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING            
MORE THAN AN INCH OR AT MOST 2 OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.            
OVERALL TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS             
TO IT.                                                                          
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. WEDGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE AREA                 
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY                 
RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE              
IS LOW IN DETERMINING A TIME PERIOD WHEN THAT MIGHT OCCUR.                      
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE VCNTY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME            
-SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY UPSLOPING FLOW              
DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE EVENING INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
646 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. WEDGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE AREA                 
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY                 
RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE              
IS LOW IN DETERMINING A TIME PERIOD WHEN THAT MIGHT OCCUR.                      
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE VCNTY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME            
-SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY UPSLOPING FLOW              
DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE EVENING INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND             
TUESDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.              
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN            
ON TUESDAY.  COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING             
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
915 AND 1015 AM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID TRENDS THIS MORNING. RUC              
13 VIA TSECS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND NEAR TERM CLOUD BANDS           
NR 7000 FT. GRIDS MODIFIED.                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS LOW            
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH           
CLOUDINESS...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING             
OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...WE MAY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE             
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL           
DAYS AS THE FLOW GOES SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS WARMS. EVEN STILL...HIGH            
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WERE DERIVED            
FROM A BLEND OF NAM 2M TEMPS AND MAVMOSGUIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE               
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                     
1110 AM... ISSUING HIGH WIND WATCH BOSTON TO MANCHESTER AND POINTS              
EAST TO CAPE ANN. SE WIND HIGH WIND CASES IN OUR CLIMO ARE RARE BUT             
MARGINAL HIGH WIND CASE ENVISIONED PER MODEL PRES CHANGES... LAPSE              
RATES...BL AND 925 MB WINDS BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM. NAM BL WINDS ARE UP TO            
38 KTS NOW AT CONCORD. THAT SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BUT PER COLLAB WITH             
GYX...ADDED ASH TO MHT. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT POWER                
OUTAGES AND SUSTAINED WIND 40 OR GREATER IS MQE AND BOS TO LWM REGION           
EWD. MAY SEE GUST 60 KTS AT MQE. WIND ADVY WILL BE ISSUED REMAINDER             
I95 REGION OF RI AND MASS AT 4PM.                                               
REMAINDER BLO FROM 4AM...                                                       
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE                 
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST           
TO EAST...STARTING IN THE CT VALLEY SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND                    
06Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION            
TYPE WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF NW MASS AND SW NH MAY SEE A           
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE START. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.           
ATTM...THE THINKING IS THAT THE SFC TEMPS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO                
ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IF ANY AT ALL. IT WOULD BE           
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL ZONES            
BY LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL             
JET GETS GOING.                                                                 
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE                
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS. BEST GUESS AT THIS               
TIME IS THAT A GENERAL .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL...WITH               
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULDN/T CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING                
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WE/LL LIKELY SEE THE NORMAL MINOR URBAN/POOR                
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                        
THUNDER...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AS WEAK INSTABILITY           
MAY DEVELOP AS THE LLJ PUMPS NORTHWARD A DECENT PLUME OF THETA-E.               
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE THE WINDS...AS A 65 KNOT                 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPEEDS OF WIND               
ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT ISOLD MARGINAL HWW CRITERIA TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF EASTERN                
MASS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE AFFECTED AS WELL. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS             
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS. ANY CONVECTION                
COULD BRING DOWN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SFC            
TEMPS REALLY WARM UP.                                                           
THERE MAY BE A 1-2 FOOT SURGE ON THE SOUTH COAST BAYS WITH THE STRONG           
SOUTHERLY LLJ....BUT TIDES ARE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS NOT OVERLY                
IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...NO COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MODEL MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY LOOKED TOO LOW. THESE SOUTHERLY LLJ                 
EVENTS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS AND             
EVEN MODEL 2M TEMPS INDICATE. WENT FOR MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI           
AND PORTIONS OF CT. COOLER TEMPS /40S - LOW 50S/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS           
THE INTERIOR ALTHOUGH IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE             
RAISED AS WELL.                                                                 
OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUE EVENING.  NAM              
IS THE SLOWEST MOVING THE OCCLUSION THROUGH AND BRINGS A SLUG OF                
HEAVY RAIN TO E MA INTO SE NH AT THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ.             
CONSENSUS AMONG OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION             
SO WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH LIFTS THE HEAVIER RAFL NORTH AND EAST             
OF SNE BY TUE EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER                  
ACROSS NE ZONES NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY TO              
CATEGORICAL POPS TUE EVENING FROM SW NH THROUGH E MA WITH LOWER POPS            
FURTHER SW AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN.  ALSO...GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS             
SUGGEST ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E MA THROUGH SE NH.                     
TREND TUE NIGHT WILL BE FOR DECREASING POPS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES               
THROUGH. WIND MAY STILL BE A CONCERN TUE EVENING FROM CAPE COD                  
THROUGH CAPE ANN WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LLJ AND WILL HAVE                 
HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS REGION. COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TUE             
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MIN             
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL                 
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE WRAPPED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE                         
MORNING...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD                  
RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND                   
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN             
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SO WE EXPECT MAINLY A DRY DAY.                          
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A BRIEF PASSING                 
SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WET SNOW        
SHOWER/FLURRY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED             
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY              
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH READINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY                 
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF               
THE NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE               
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  LOWS SHOULD MAINLY            
BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER              
IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON.                                             
THURSDAY...                                                                     
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL AFTERNOON              
CUMULUS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A POCKET OF            
COLD AIR ALOFT.  WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR PERHAPS A                 
BRIEF INSTABILITY PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE DISTANT                   
INTERIOR...BUT CAN NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY              
BE IN THE 40S.                                                                  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...                                                          
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER                  
SPREADING MOST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS                  
ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT SLOWER AND HAVE THE BULK OF THE ACTION SATURDAY             
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS FAR OUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON             
THE TIMING SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY              
NIGHT.  BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WE EXPECT MAINLY            
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF            
SNOW OR ICE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR AT THE ONSET.  THE ECMWF                
SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING THE WAVE FURTHER EAST AND            
HAS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.  WHILE WE DO NOT              
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD FAVOR MOST OF            
THE REGION SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN.                                           
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...                                                            
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL WORK BACK                
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS IS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT BUT ITS ENSEMBLES AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE THREAT OF                
MORE PRECIPITATION SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  LOW CONFIDENCE             
THIS FAR OUT...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY WEATHER TO                 
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE.                          
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT             
AGAIN THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
TODAY...VFR OCNL CIGS NEAR 8000 FT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS.                                                                
TONIGHT...ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING                  
CEILINGS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND               
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THE NIGHT WILL START WITH VFR             
CONDITIONS...BUT THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR LATE.                 
TUESDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY              
AT TIMES. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN RI AND EASTERN            
MASS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE. ESE SFC WINDS          
LIKELY GUST 40 KT RI/EASTERN MASS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON AREA 15Z-21Z.             
LLWS EXPECTED FROM PVD TO MHT AND EAST.                                         
LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN RAIN TUE EVENING ESPECIALLY MHT-BOS-HYA-                  
ACK...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.           
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD             
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THIS PERIOD.                   
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET DAY TODAY ON THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.           
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.                                       
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN                 
MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS                
STARTING AT 06Z TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...ALTHOUGH GALES MAY NOT ARRIVE           
ON NORTHERN WATERS TIL A BIT LATER ON.                                          
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER             
LOOKING OVER ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...DECIDED TO GO WITH STRONG GALES           
ON ALL WATERS INSTEAD OF STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED GUST NR 50 KTS MERR RVR           
TO NEAR BOSTON HARBOR WATERS TUE AFTN. LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN                  
INHIBIT BUT PRES GRAD AND TURB MXG MAY ALLOW FOR GST 50KTS....ESP               
MERR RIVER REGION.                                                              
HOWEVER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LATER             
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS.            
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUILD UP TO 15 FEET...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED            
TO SEE 44008 AND 44018 TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET.                          
STRONGEST WINDS BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN WATERS EAST OF            
CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD WHERE STRONG SE GALES LIKELY INVOF LLJ.  GUSTS             
TO 45 KT POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DECREASE AS OCCLUSION            
MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WILL HAPPEN BY TUE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN                
WATERS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT EASTERN WATERS.  SEAS UP TO 15 FEET OUTER            
EASTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT.                                                       
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA                
THRESHOLDS OVER THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ROUGH SEAS OVER THE                       
OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE REQUIRING SCA FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WIND               
GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  OTHERWISE...HEADLINES               
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER-WATERS MOST OF THE TIME.            
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ013-017>024.            
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.                                                    
NH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR NHZ012.                                                                
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ002-004>008.            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-254-         
     255.                                                                       
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANK                                                           
NEAR TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                         
SHORT TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                        
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
AVIATION...NMB/FRANK                                                            
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK                                                             
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS               
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE MS VALLEY.               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY                
AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY WITH MARKED DRYING IN ITS                
WAKE EXPANDING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ANOTHER STRONG PIECE OF              
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-18            
HOURS INTO AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES            
AND SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH            
WE FIND LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND ALONG THE             
EAST COAST. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO SEEN MOVING                   
NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.                     
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS COMBINING            
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS WWA IN THE LOWER LEVELS             
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA TO THE TN AND             
OHIO VALLEYS. THIS MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE                       
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FLORIDA                   
PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.                            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF               
THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND             
ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED            
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND            
THEN SOUTHWEST TO LA. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO              
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS                    
OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST.                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITES AS TO THE              
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM            
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND                      
ASSOCIATED FORCED ASCENT WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA                    
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A                  
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA DURING            
THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF            
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE                      
INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH SREF PROBS OF EVEN 500 J/KG               
HOLDING BELOW 5% OVER LAND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
THAT WE WILL INITIALLY SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE             
WESTERN ZONES AS SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO. WITH THIS IN MIND             
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE BAND            
OF SHOWERS.                                                                     
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND NEAR OR                  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SHEAR             
OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ORGANIZES WELL TO            
THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERHEAD ALL BUT                 
COLLAPSES. MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT INTO THE EASTERN             
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND SHOULD                 
EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE WEST                
THIS EVENING TO WEAKEN AND THIN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.            
CURRENT FORECAST POPS SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE             
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST                
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THESE POPS TAPER TO ONLY LOW END CHANCE                   
VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES APPROACHING THE              
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW A LESSENING OF THE                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL NOT BRING                  
THUNDER MENTION EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THIS IS SHAPING UP              
TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW IMPACT EVENT...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH MANY                  
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...THE DURATION            
IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ON THE               
LIGHT SIDE. IN FACT...AS THE OVERALL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO COLLAPSE              
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...FAR EASTERN AREA FROM VALDOSTA INTO               
THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ONLY SEE A QUICK LINE OF BROKEN                
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.               
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND                
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS RAPIDLY DECREASING                          
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON               
ALMOST REGION-WIDE WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH                
TEMPS WARMING FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S UP INTO THE 60S.               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE                  
VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD               
AND WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECTING A GOOD                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING.                
ASSUMING SURFACE WINDS CAN DROP TO CALM (WHICH APPEARS QUITE LIKELY             
WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION) MANY NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS                 
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES               
EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY              
FROST TO ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS TIME AS            
FROST CAN TAKE HOLD AT GROUND LEVEL EVEN WITH 2 METER TEMPS HOLDING             
IN THE MIDDLE 30S. A PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL                         
CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY LATE...TO FILTER THE SUN AS GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A             
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS                
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL IN                    
PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE A FEW AREAS APPROACH               
FREEZING LATE. BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE FROST WILL BE                
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDIER            
SOILS OF THE BIG BEND. THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAN ON              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANY CIRRUS POSSIBLY STILL OVERHEAD WOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO DISRUPT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS AND KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW              
EXTRA DEGREES.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY).                                         
CONTINUED AMPLIFIED AND FAST MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS            
IS STILL INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE AND FLAT FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN GAINING SUPPORT BETWEEN THE            
GFS AND EURO...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT A DEEPENING               
SHORT WAVE (ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MANY) DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT              
LAKES STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL HELP PULL THE                
SURFACE WAVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS AND UP THE            
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD               
FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CHANCES              
OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS DECENT CONSISTENCY              
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE GFS               
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOW QUICKLY                
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONTAL               
SYSTEM HOLDS UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IT WON`T              
REMAIN THERE FOR LONG AS THE OVERALL EAST COAST TROF DEEPENS MORE               
AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION OUT BY THE FIRST            
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD              
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP MAX TEMPS             
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. MIN TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A LIGHT               
FREEZE ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL WARM EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND              
BE ABOVE NORMAL THESE LAST TWO DAYS. COOLER MINS RETURN BEHIND THE              
FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING                
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS              
THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS WITH A SHARP WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.              
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. A            
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY                   
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL              
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN                   
ELEVATED NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL                
THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS            
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS PROVIDING LIGHT              
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO                
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS (AROUND 9K FT) WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN                 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL AFFECT KDHN BY THIS EVENING...THEN            
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT IMPACT             
CIGS OR VIS...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
IN ISOLATED +SHRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING                   
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KT (GUSTS TO 20 KT) ARE EXPECTED BY               
MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH UNLIMITED CIGS AND VIS.                
KTLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FIRE (AND SMOKE PLUME) 16 NM                     
SOUTHWEST OF KTLH. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN                
ADVECTING THE SMOKE OVER THE TERMINAL...BUT WE WILL WATCH THIS                  
CLOSELY FOR VIS IMPACTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE                  
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL DRIVE                   
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES. HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE              
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT IN OUR GA AND AL                     
ZONES...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. RED FLAG                      
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  47  66  32  65  33 /  60   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  49  66  39  66  45 /  70   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       43  63  34  65  39 /  80   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       43  62  31  65  34 /  70   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     46  64  32  65  33 /  50  05   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   51  69  32  68  32 /  30  15   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM              
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                      
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO                
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY UPPER LOW                
WILL MERGE WITH S/WV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI FORMING BROADER UPPER LOW            
OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN                 
LOWER MI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY THE END OF              
THE DAY.  BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE                   
FEATURES HAS MOVED INTO LAKE MI.  BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS               
AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF A MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY LINE AND EVEN                
THERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO ACCOMPANY             
IT. WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD UPPER LOW TRACK EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF              
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CENTRAL AREAS                  
REMAINING PRECIP FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 85H TEMPS WILL FALL              
INTO THE -8 TO -10 RANGE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AS WINDS                
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY DO EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR              
IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING            
MORE THAN AN INCH OR AT MOST 2 OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.            
OVERALL TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS             
TO IT.                                                                          
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
BRING SOME -SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY                 
UPSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE                 
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER                    
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH 18Z                 
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...MZ                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
343 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT                
REACHES UPDATE NEW YORK ON TUESDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW                      
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAINLY SNOW WILL              
FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH THROUGH               
TONIGHT...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN CHANGING BACK TO                  
SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK                    
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS...COLD...NORTHWESTERLY OVER-LAKE FLOW           
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS              
WEEK WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED              
SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...                                        
PRECIP SHIELD HAS REACHED THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW                 
AND SOME SLEET FALLING HERE AT NWS CTP THIS HOUR. TRANSITION ZONE               
NOT FAR AWAY WITH MIXED PRECIP AT KFIG AND KDUJ...AND COLD RAIN AT              
KJST AND KAOO WITH 33F AIRTEMP AND 28F DEWPOINTS. CURRENT                       
ADVISORIES SEEM WELL PLACED FOR THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE                 
WAY OF CHANGES.                                                                 
09Z SREF PTYPE PROBS CONT TO FAVOR SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET FROM                   
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW FROM I80                      
NORTHWARD. SREF INDICATES CATEGORICAL PROBS OF .5" OR GREATER IN                
12 HOURS FROM 18Z MON TO 06Z TUE. A FEW PLUMES SUGGEST THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES FROM WILLIAMSPORT NORTHWARD TONIGHT.           
MODEL FORECASTING SOUNDINGS ARE PREDOMINATELY "SNOW" SOUNDINGS                  
AFTER PRECIP ARRIVES...WITH DYNAMIC COOLING TO THE WET BULB                     
TEMPERATURES CREATING ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS BELOW FREEZING TO NEAR               
THE SURFACE FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. UNLIKE LAST YEAR                  
WHICH WAS THE "WINTER OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT" FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL              
PA... DIFFICULT TO FIND A WARM LAYER ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM.                    
A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE IS AHEAD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF                 
NORTHERN PA AS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ILL-TIMED. FURTHER NORTH...        
PRIMARILY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING 3 OR              
4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.                                          
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                    
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK AROUND INTO CENTRAL PA AS COASTAL LOW                     
DEVELOPS. EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO BE CHANGED OVER                
BEFORE 10Z WITH EASTERN SECTIONS LAGGING A BIT BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                        
TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION                     
TONIGHT...WITH I-80 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AS                       
SUGGESTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE AND RUC13 FORECASTS OF WET BULB ZERO.              
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN. THE HIGHER ELEVS                
OF SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL CO POSE THE GREATEST FCST CHALLENGE FOR INTO             
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE ELEVATION PTYPE DEPENDENCE. HAVE HELD OFF AN                
ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT WITH ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES MENTIONED.                
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT CONSULT THE LATEST GUID AND MAKE THE FINAL               
DECISION ON ANY FLAGS FOR TNT.                                                  
THE CLD/OCCLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE                             
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW. THE HIGH               
RESOLUTION NAM/WRF DEPICTS A MORE ROBUST DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY                   
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERY/LIGHTER PCPN AFT 06Z ESP ACROSS THE               
WEST. AS THE UPPER LVL TROF TRANSITIONS FROM A NEUTRAL TO A SLIGHTLY            
NEG TILT...ERN PA MAY PICK UP SOME ADDNL MOD TO HEAVY QPF AS MDLS               
HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING CLD FNT.                 
THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE LW TROF                   
LEADS TO A SLOWER EWD FNTL PROGRESSION.                                         
THE ANOMALOUS H5 LOW IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY MOVE OVERHEAD ON                    
TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE              
RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY                 
HEAVY SQUALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ENTIRE STORM SYS                     
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT RETROGRADES NWWD FROM THE LWR                  
LAKES INTO SRN ONTARIO BY WED. THIS SET UP SHOULD FAVOR MORE LAKE               
EFFECT/ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN                         
ALLEGHENIES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY WED               
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
CHALLENGES WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST RESIDE WITH LES SNOW MACHINE              
AND FAVORED ORAGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW REGIONS SEEING SNOW LATE TUE EVE               
THRU EARLY THUR.                                                                
LCL WRF-ARW/NMM PAINT MID-LVL VORT ACROSS ALLEGHENIES TUE                       
AFTN...LIFTING NORTHEAST TUE EVE. LCL MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF                 
DEFORMATION SNOW MAY PERSIST ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY TUE AFTN. ATTM                  
THINKING ACCUMS SHUD REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THIS                
REMAINS A CONCERN. NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT...SENDS A WEAK VORT             
MAX ARND TROUGH AXIS TUE...ALLOWING COASTAL LOW TO DEV OFFSHORE OF              
LONG ISLAND/CAPE COD VICINITY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR QUICKLY                
PULLING LLVL MOISTURE EAST OF THE SUSQ-VALLEY BY 21Z TUE. DRY WEDGE             
QUICKLY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PA AFT 18Z AS FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES                   
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY. DENDRITIC GROWTH GRADUALLY LOWERS ACROSS                
ALLEGHENIES AS COLD AIR STEADILY POURS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF            
PA TUE EVE. 1000-850MB LAYERED RH SATURATES ARND 00Z WED...WITH A               
NARROW WEDGE OF OMEGA IN THE CROSS-HAIRS OF SEVERAL PROFILES. THIS SHUD         
KICK THE SNOW MACHINE INTO HIGH GEAR THRU EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY.               
MID-LVL VORT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THUR INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FLOW            
TO BACK TO WESTERLY IN THE LLVL/S. THIS FEATURE WOULD PUSH ANY                  
LINGERING LES NORTH OF PA INTO NEW YORK TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.                
OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO...COUPLED WITH A            
534DM THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIP AS SN. OPERATIONAL GFS PRODUCES A                
BROAD SFC RIDGE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI...HOWEVER FEEL IT WILL                 
STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT LLVL MOISTURE. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU WEEKEND.              
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN            
CONUS...FAVORING A PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN US.             
SEVERAL MEMBERS TRY TO DEVELOP A VERY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE            
SAT. THEN BRING IT NORTH ARND TROUGH AXIS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.             
TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN S/R ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WRN               
PA TAF SITES. MVFR WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR IN MIXED                            
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH                
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH                   
AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN AND NRN PENN.                   
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...AND MAINLY IN THE FORM               
OF -DZ OR SNOW GRAINS AS THE TEMP IN THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE ABOUT               
-2C TO -6C AND TOO WARM FOR LARGER SNOWFLAKE FORMATION.                         
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS PA VERY EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR                  
CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN SHSN WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE                
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN PENN (TAF SITES KJST AND KBFD).                   
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT                  
WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND                
PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND                 
NWRN PENN. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH              
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE                 
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.                                                     
ANOTHER STORM WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY               
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-                  
010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046.                                            
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT FOR PAZ017-024-033.                                                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ004-005-010.                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                         
PAZ024>028-049>053-056.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR                                                               
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...BEACHLER                                                            
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                       
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
142 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT 18Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC                     
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA WITH                  
5 TO 10 KTS SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED                    
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ARA MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN                   
HALF OF THE BRO CWA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN                 
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ENTERING               
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZAPATA COUNTY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE                
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.                                                           
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED                      
SOLUTION FOR THE GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE                
REMAINING OF THE WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE               
FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD                
OF A DEEPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL ENTER THE SW US TOWARD               
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH                 
TEXAS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS              
THE JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST              
TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                      
BY WED 06Z SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND START                     
INCREASING OUR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO A MAX OF AROUND 1.60 BY              
THE END OF THE WEEK JUST PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT                       
FRONT/TROF FROM THE SW US. THE SURFACE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO START               
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEEP                  
SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS                
THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THIS                  
PACIFIC STORM THE GRIDS WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED THROUGHOUT                 
THE WEEK.                                                                       
THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE 12Z GFS AND STILL                 
SHOW THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE ABRUPT DROP IN THE DEWPOINTS FOR DEEP              
SOUTH TEXAS IN COMPARISON WITH THE GFS...HOWEVER...THE GFS DROPS TO             
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE ECMWF BY MONDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF            
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATED WINDS WERE             
WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 4 FT WITH A PERIOD             
OF 8 SECONDS. MTRPIL REPORTED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 7 KTS.              
RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OBSERVED TODAY COMPARED THE LAST             
COUPLE DAYS. CHC FOR SCT SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY AS A            
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO                
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THRU THIS AFTN               
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD THEN                    
INCREASE SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. A              
MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL REMAIN THRU THE DAYTIME HRS ON TUESDAY             
BUT BEGIN TO RELAX BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.              
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT                 
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AT 20 TO 60                  
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE...THINK               
CAUTION STATEMENT WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFT COULD                  
DECIDE IF STRONGER WORDING IS NEEDED.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH                 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH                
AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL                
LIKELY THEN HOLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WITH              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN MAY RESEMBLE THE SAME CONDITIONS THAT WERE                 
EXPERIENCED THIS LAST WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCT SHRAS.                  
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS                  
THROUGH THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.              
MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE                       
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.                  
SEAS THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH AN                      
INCREASE EXPECTED ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS WILL REMAIN                  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT DECREASE IS                   
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED              
ONCE AGAIN TO TAKE PLACE POST FRONTAL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA               
THIS AFTN. CLD BANDS ASSOC A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH              
FROM AROUND CRP TO LRD. EXPECT CLDS TO HANG ON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME            
SCT SHRAS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE                
WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS                   
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                
TUESDAY. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS.                   
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCT SHRAS LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY                   
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY WILL BACK                   
NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.              
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM                   
DEPICTING WELL A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TONIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED              
RANGE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHARP DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS AFTER FRIDAY                
AT 18Z DOWN TO 45F AT BROWNSVILLE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A GRADUAL               
DECREASE DOWN TO 55F BY MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO KEEP               
A 50...50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS                   
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE DONE AT THIS                     
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  72  63  79 /  20  10  20  10                           
BROWNSVILLE          61  73  59  81 /  20  10  10  10                           
HARLINGEN            59  72  57  82 /  10  10  10  10                           
MCALLEN              61  73  57  82 /  10  10  10  10                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  71  57  80 /  20  10  10  20                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  73  63  78 /  30  10  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
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</pre> tx