AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
230 PM MST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...120KT N/S ORIENTED JET CORE PASSING OVER               
ERN CO ATTM ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC...SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE THIS             
EVENING. THIS PLACES NERN CO UNDER STG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT.                    
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT PRODUCES A STRONG MTN TOP                
SUBSIDENCE LAYER AND LOW AMPLITUDE MTN WAVE. MM5ROC AND NAM                     
CROSS-MTN WIND COMPONENT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SFC WINDS INCREASING AT            
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER             
DUE TO THE N-NWLY COMPONENT OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT DO NOT EXPECT              
MUCH OF THIS WIND TRANSPORTING DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT            
RANGE OR ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AIRMASS OVER NERN            
CO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY REMAINS QUITE DRY AND STABLE SFC AND ALOFT AS             
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DRAMATIC                    
INCREASE IN TEMPS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES                 
WARMER ON THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. GREATEST WARMUP IN THE I-25 URBAN               
CORRIDOR. MTN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP...ALTHOUGH VERY              
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN LOWER REACHES OF THE MTN VALLEYS              
SUCH AS MIDDLE AND NORTH PARKS.                                                 
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WILL BRING            
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA                   
THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH             
THE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY...BUT AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY                  
PRECIP EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.                                                   
BIGGEST NEWS IS THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE COMING FOR THE LATTER            
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THAT COLD AIR             
WILL COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN                    
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW            
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A WHOPPER OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET               
AIDING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHOT OF                  
RATHER DEEP UPSLOPE COULD PROVIDE MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE            
FORECAST AREA.  THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER AND               
DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL TIMING AND RESULTANT                  
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
AFTER THIS INITIAL BLAST...LOOKS LIKE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN COLD            
AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING            
FROM MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATER THIS             
WEEK.  WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH WEDGE OF COLD AIR EAST              
OF THE ROCKIES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/BARJENBRUCH                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
611 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZFP/GRIDS...                                          
320 PM CST                                                                      
EARLIER LAKE INFLUENCE APPEARS TO HAVE VANISHED SINCE THIS MRNG AND             
DIDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH. HOWEVER THIS SNOW EVENT MORE INFLUENCED BY                
CYCLONIC CONVECTION WITH NEW CONVECTION ALONG LAKESHORE MOVING INTO             
COOK COUNTY AND BEING FED LAKE MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS QUITE UNSTABLE AS            
IF IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ADDING LOW LVL            
THERMAL LIFT OVER LAND TO ENHANCE OR PROMOTE MORE CONVECTION.                   
MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR BACKING OF WINDS AT ALL LVLS THIS LT AFTN AND            
EVENING SO THAT ADVECTION OF SHOW SHOWERS INITIALLY MOVING NORTH TO             
SOUTH NOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THIS EVENING AS SOLAR HEATING IS SHUT            
OFF. CAN ALREADY SEE CELLS MOVING SE AT RFD. THIS WILL MAKE NERN IL             
A PRIME ZONE OF CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY KEEP OCNL SW-             
NERN IL/NWRN IN THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE BFR             
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES.                                                        
STILL APPEARS RATHER UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT BUT MID LVLS DRIER LEAVING              
SC DECK TO 4K OR 5K ON TOPS FOR SUNDAY. THIS INSTABILITY CARRIES                
INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING            
WEAK SECONDARY SFC FRONT MIDDAY WITH POST FNTL H8 TEMPS SQUEEZING OUT           
MORE FLURRIES THRU THE AFTN. AFTER THAT SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO MS VLY             
FOR THE EVENING. FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT WITH                 
WINDS BACKING TO WEST MONDAY AND INTRODUCING WAA FOR A CHANGE. THIS             
IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A PASSING CLIPPER TO OUR NORTH OVER                   
WISCONSIN THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TUESDAY.                      
UPR FLOW BENDS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AS UPR TROF ACROSS              
CANADA SWINGS DOWN ROCKIES. SAGGING HTS IN THE WEST ALTER FLOW TO               
MUCH WARMER SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE MIDWEST WHILE DEEPENING SFC LOW IN             
SRN PLAINS. THIS DRAWS GULF MOISTURE...MAKE THAT WARM GULF                      
MOISTURE...UP MS VLY SO THAT TEMPS AND DWPTS ON THE RISE RATHER                 
QUICKLY WHILE RIDING ON 50KT LOW LVL JET. WE MAY BE TALKING THUNDER             
BY THAT TIME BUT AM LEAVING IT AS RAIN FOR MOST OF CWA WEDNESDAY INTO           
THURSDAY. SFC LOW KICKS OUT TO MICHIGAN THURS EVENING PROMPTING                 
STRONG CAA TO CHANGE LINGERING PCPN INTO SNOW THURS NGT. SHUD TURN              
COLD AND DRY FRIDAY AND SAT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C OVER LK              
MICH ON SAT. FLOW IS NW SO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHUD INUNDATE MICHIGAN.            
MBR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...                                            
IMMEDIATE FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS VSBYS/CIGS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW              
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RECENT KORD ACARS SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 700 HPA. WHILE            
NOT ACTUALLY LAKE EFFECT...SHSN APPEAR AIDED BY MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY            
NE FLOW OFF LAKE...AND RESULTING MASS/MOIST CONVERGENCE OVER NE IL.             
88D INDICATING HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY CORES OVER IMMEDIATE NW/W                   
CHICAGO SUBURBAN AREAS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM AND             
OVC003 WHEN SIMILAR SIGNATURES PASSED OVER ASOS SITES AT KORD/KMDW.             
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE APPEARS TO FAVOR KDPA AREA NEXT            
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE PERHAPS KEEPING MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS               
JUST WEST OF KORD/KMDW. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A LIFR TEMPO             
FOR DPA...KEEPING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KORD/KMDW. KRFD FAR ENOUGH WEST             
FOR JUST A FEW FLURRIES...AND KGYY MAY MISS OUT ON HEAVIER SHSN                 
TOO...SO HAVE STAYED MVFR THERE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING TO              
THE SOUTHEAST...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD             
ALLOW SOME DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH                
WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL AS FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC/META/GFS ALL                  
SLOWLY DECREASE LAPSE RATE THROUGH 700 HPA. SHOULD SEE END OF SIG               
SHSN THREAT FOR TAF SITES BY 06Z HOWEVER...AS HGTS BEGIN TO RISE                
ALOFT WITH EXIT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND RESULTANT SHORT WAVE RIDGING            
BETWEEN TROUGH AND NEXT S/WV WHICH APPROACHES SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE            
STABLE SUNDAY...MAY SEE SOME SCT FLURRIES THOUGH FOR NOW EXPECT                 
LITTLE IN WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTING PCPN AND NOT CONFIDENT FOR A                  
TEMPO ATTM.                                                                     
WIND WISE...NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE NNW THIS                      
EVENING...THEN STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 310-320 DEG THROUGH SUNDAY.             
A LITTLE TRICKY INITIALLY WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY IN                  
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE A DECIDEDLY NW SHIFT                
NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                                 
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
915 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION UPDATED...                                                          
CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE BEST HANDLED             
BY THE RUC MODEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF            
OF THE STATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT AXIS            
IS FORMING ACROSS LK MI AND DOWNWIND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT              
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA             
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE DAYTIME HEAVY SNOWS WERE IN PART DUE TO            
THE POSITION OF THE 850MB THETAE RIDGE BELOW -35F 500MB                         
TEMPS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC BASED CAPE. THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD            
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH             
FORT WAYNE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTIVE TRAITS WITH 25-35DBZ ECHOES.            
I FEEL THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SNOW THROUGH              
THE NIGHT. I EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 1 INCH AT INDIANAPOLIS TO 2 OR 3              
TOWARD MUNCIE AND EAST OF MUNCIE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AND THE            
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY.                                               
OMITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING COASTAL NOW OVR GA/SC AND GAINING             
STRENGTH. ACROSS SECTIONS OF INDIANA/KY/IL CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS                
HAVE SET UP CREATING AREAS OF VARYING SNOWFALL TOTALS. BAND ACROSS              
CWA APPEARS TO BE MVG SLOWLY SOUTH AND EXTENDS FROM FARMLAND IN                 
RANDOLPH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH PRINCES LAKES IN JOHNSON COUNTY               
AND INTO JACKSON COUNTY.                                                        
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS AT H5. DO BEGIN TO              
SEE A FEW ISSUES BY 60 HRS REGARDING SFC FEATURES. GFS NUDGES HIGH              
PRESSURE INTO SRN FA BY THIS TIME WHILE NAM KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE                 
SOUTH OF STATE. STILL...OVRALL DIFFERENCE IS RATHER MINOR IN REGARDS            
TO WX. FEATURES TEND TO RESOLVE BY 66HRS AND ONCE AGAIN AGREE                   
SOMEWHAT. WL GO AHEAD A USE MODEL BLEND.                                        
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WL BE -SW CHC TONIGHT.                                      
TIME SECTIONS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. BACK EDGE              
OF UPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS STATE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH SOME             
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -SW             
ACROSS FA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS             
OVR CTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF FA WITH ONLY SCHC POPS OVR EAST. BEST              
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ERN AND CTRL SECTIONS OF FA. MOS                    
GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE REGARDING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. WL USE BLEND.                  
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE SUN. TIME SECTIONS CONT             
TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS AROUND. BUFKIT ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL            
KEEPING THESE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF AREA DURING THE                   
DAYTIME. ONCE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES STATE...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME              
IMPROVEMENT IN WX CONDITIONS. LOW CLDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND             
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE. FOR NOW...PLAN ON KEEPING             
LOW POPS ACROSS FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN            
ADDITION...DO EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDINESS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVRNGT. WL             
REFLECT THIS IN GRIDS. MOS GUIDANCES LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TEMPS              
SUN AND SUN NGT. SEE NO REASON NOT TO USE BLEND.                                
ONCE UPPER TROF PASSES EAST OF FA...UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME            
MORE ZONAL. THIS WL ALLOW A BREAK FROM SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. NEXT              
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD STATE BY WED NGT INTO THUR MORNING.            
AT PRESENT...TEMPS APPEAR ON THE WARM SIDE KEEPING ANY PRECIP IN                
LIQUID FORM. AS FNT CROSSES STATE...COLDER TEMPS MV IN. IT LOOKS                
LIKE THIS WILL HAPPEN ONCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS WELL EAST OF               
FA. WL KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NGT. WL HAVE TO               
MONITOR SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT THINGS COULD                  
CHANGE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH              
700 PM EST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CWA.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1012 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AN INTERESTING MESOSCALE FEATURE SHOWING UP THIS MORNING MANIFESTED             
ON RADAR IMAGERY AS A PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE INDIANA            
COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE. THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY HAS             
BEEN ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF DECATUR TO HARTFORD CITY.                  
SURFACE OBS WOULD SUGGEST SOME FORM OF BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION WITH             
WEST CENTRAL OHIO DOMINATED BY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WHILE MANY OF THE            
NORTH/CENTRAL INDIANA OBS SHOWING N/NNE FLOW. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE                 
CAPTURED THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS AND HOLDS IT TOGETHER INTO THE EARLY             
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WEAK BOUNDARY BECOMES MIXED OUT AND DIFFUSE.               
HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS FOR A 5 COUNTY              
AREA SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMS. OTHERWISE                 
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM             
AWAY FROM THIS BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WORDING                
GOING ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS. UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM                   
ALREADY ON THE STREET.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER N INDIANA TODAY AND TRIGGER SNOW             
SHOWERS. GIVEN VORT MAXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...THERE COULD              
BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF                     
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z.  EXPECT MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS TO BE WEST OF SBN SATURDAY GIVEN N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD              
POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND STEEPEN LAPSE               
RATES. HAVE THEREFORE MENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN TAFS WITH MVFR                  
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WENT DOWN TO 3SM AT FWA GIVEN RECENT                      
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR VISIBILITIES.                                               
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER LOW AND CORE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT              
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GFS 500 MB TEMPS AND ACARS              
DATA SHOW -35C TO -37C AT 500 MB...SO WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT              
TODAY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO                
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY. GENERALLY RAISED SNOW CHANCES TODAY...BUT            
KEPT IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH.               
APPEARS WEAK FRONT HAD JUST PASSED GRR AND WAS DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY             
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND               
REACH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE COLDER IN              
THE NORTH TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FRONT...CLOUDS AND                     
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT NOT                  
NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS IT LOOKED EARLIER. RUC13 AND ETA12 INDICATED             
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN BERRIEN CO            
AND WESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE EAST OF            
DUE NORTH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN               
MANY OF THE EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CARRYING OVER INTO SUNDAY INITIAL LONG TERM                 
CONCERN W/LONGER TERM PROBS RELEGATED TO RETROGRESSIVE HGT PATTN                
ACRS NOAM AND DVLPG NEG PNA.                                                    
925MB ANALYSIS OFF 00Z NAM SUGGESTING A BIT BTR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL             
CONTG W/EQL BASED DIFFERENTIAL AOA -20C. THIS IN CONJUNCTION W/LONG             
AXIS FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF SHORE PARALLEL CONV DVLPG ALG ERN                 
SHORE LOOK TO RESULT IN DECENT SINGLE BAND POTENTIAL. HWVR PROB                 
STILL REMAINS W/INLAND EXTENT OF POSSIBLE BAND AND ALL IMPORTANT                
POSITION. 00/06Z INDICATION WOULD POINT TO BEST ACCUMULATIONS WEST              
OF A THREE OAKS TO WALKERTON LINE ALTHOUGH SOME EWD SHIFT NOTED INTO            
SUN AFTN. WILL BUMP NW CORNER TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT.                          
AFT THAT...ATTN TURNS TO INTERESTING WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. 00Z                    
GUIDANCE BASICALLY ALL OVR THE PLACE ESP GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS W/NO TWO             
SOLUTIONS ALIKE. HWVR 18Z OP GFS AND NEW 00Z ECMWF OFFER REASONABLE             
CONTINUITY W/H5 HGT EVOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND DETAILS OF              
18Z GFS USED FOR GRIDS WHICH ALLOWS FOR DISTINCT FRONTAL WAVE TO                
DVLP ALG INTENSIFYING FNTL ZONE ACRS CNTRL US. ON WED STG NRN STREAM            
JET TRANSLATING THROUGH NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW POLAR FNT TO PUSH SOUTH            
AND STALL VCNTY SRN LAKES WHILE INTENSE LL WAA DVLPS DOWNSTREAM                 
CONCURRENT W/LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACRS CO. TEMPS AT THIS POINT SEEM            
TO FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN BUT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS RANGE                
WARRANTS KEEPING GOING RAIN/SNOW MENTION. THEN FOR THU/FRI...PLAINS             
FNTL WV EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SUB TROPICAL JET SHIFTS NE                
INTO SRN LAKES. THIS ALLOWS COLD AIR TO FILTER A BIT FURTHER S ALG              
INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT AND COULD FUEL QUITE A SNOW EVENT ACRS              
AT LEAST NW CWA. HWVR DIFFICULTY LIES W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT AND               
WHERE RAIN/MIXED PRECIP/SNOW LINE WILL LAY OUT ALTHOUGH ELONGATED H5            
TROUGHING FM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE 4 CORNERS CERTAINLY DOES NOT                
MERIT 00Z OP GFS DEPICTION OF SIG MID LAT CYCLONE DVLPMNT MID WEEK              
BUT A MUCH MORE WEAKER SFC REELECTION. WILL KEEP GENERALIZED RAIN OR            
SNOW MENTION GOING AT THIS POINT UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH OFFERS               
ENOUGH TIME BY THEN FOR COLD AIR TO WRAP SOUTHWARD TO FAVOR ALL SNOW            
MENTION. STAY TUNED AS THINGS COULD GET UGLY LATER NXT WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                   
LONG TERM....HOLSTEN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER N INDIANA TODAY AND TRIGGER SNOW             
SHOWERS. GIVEN VORT MAXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...THERE COULD              
BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF                     
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z.  EXPECT MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS TO BE WEST OF SBN SATURDAY GIVEN N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD              
POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND STEEPEN LAPSE               
RATES. HAVE THEREFORE MENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN TAFS WITH MVFR                  
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WENT DOWN TO 3SM AT FWA GIVEN RECENT                      
OBSERVATIONS OF IFR VISIBILITIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER LOW AND CORE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT              
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GFS 500 MB TEMPS AND ACARS              
DATA SHOW -35C TO -37C AT 500 MB...SO WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT              
TODAY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO                
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY. GENERALLY RAISED SNOW CHANCES TODAY...BUT            
KEPT IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH.               
APPEARS WEAK FRONT HAD JUST PASSED GRR AND WAS DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY             
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND               
REACH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE COLDER IN              
THE NORTH TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FRONT...CLOUDS AND                     
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT NOT                  
NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS IT LOOKED EARLIER. RUC13 AND ETA12 INDICATED             
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN BERRIEN CO            
AND WESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE EAST OF            
DUE NORTH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN               
MANY OF THE EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CARRYING OVER INTO SUNDAY INITIAL LONG TERM                 
CONCERN W/LONGER TERM PROBS RELEGATED TO RETROGRESSIVE HGT PATTN                
ACRS NOAM AND DVLPG NEG PNA.                                                    
925MB ANALYSIS OFF 00Z NAM SUGGESTING A BIT BTR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL             
CONTG W/EQL BASED DIFFERENTIAL AOA -20C. THIS IN CONJUNCTION W/LONG             
AXIS FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF SHORE PARALLEL CONV DVLPG ALG ERN                 
SHORE LOOK TO RESULT IN DECENT SINGLE BAND POTENTIAL. HWVR PROB                 
STILL REMAINS W/INLAND EXTENT OF POSSIBLE BAND AND ALL IMPORTANT                
POSITION. 00/06Z INDICATION WOULD POINT TO BEST ACCUMULATIONS WEST              
OF A THREE OAKS TO WALKERTON LINE ALTHOUGH SOME EWD SHIFT NOTED INTO            
SUN AFTN. WILL BUMP NW CORNER TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT.                          
AFT THAT...ATTN TURNS TO INTERESTING WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. 00Z                    
GUIDANCE BASICALLY ALL OVR THE PLACE ESP GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS W/NO TWO             
SOLUTIONS ALIKE. HWVR 18Z OP GFS AND NEW 00Z ECMWF OFFER REASONABLE             
CONTINUITY W/H5 HGT EVOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND DETAILS OF              
18Z GFS USED FOR GRIDS WHICH ALLOWS FOR DISTINCT FRONTAL WAVE TO                
DVLP ALG INTENSIFYING FNTL ZONE ACRS CNTRL US. ON WED STG NRN STREAM            
JET TRANSLATING THROUGH NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW POLAR FNT TO PUSH SOUTH            
AND STALL VCNTY SRN LAKES WHILE INTENSE LL WAA DVLPS DOWNSTREAM                 
CONCURRENT W/LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACRS CO. TEMPS AT THIS POINT SEEM            
TO FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN BUT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS RANGE                
WARRANTS KEEPING GOING RAIN/SNOW MENTION. THEN FOR THU/FRI...PLAINS             
FNTL WV EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SUB TROPICAL JET SHIFTS NE                
INTO SRN LAKES. THIS ALLOWS COLD AIR TO FILTER A BIT FURTHER S ALG              
INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT AND COULD FUEL QUITE A SNOW EVENT ACRS              
AT LEAST NW CWA. HWVR DIFFICULTY LIES W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT AND               
WHERE RAIN/MIXED PRECIP/SNOW LINE WILL LAY OUT ALTHOUGH ELONGATED H5            
TROUGHING FM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE 4 CORNERS CERTAINLY DOES NOT                
MERIT 00Z OP GFS DEPICTION OF SIG MID LAT CYCLONE DVLPMNT MID WEEK              
BUT A MUCH MORE WEAKER SFC REELECTION. WILL KEEP GENERALIZED RAIN OR            
SNOW MENTION GOING AT THIS POINT UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH OFFERS               
ENOUGH TIME BY THEN FOR COLD AIR TO WRAP SOUTHWARD TO FAVOR ALL SNOW            
MENTION. STAY TUNED AS THINGS COULD GET UGLY LATER NXT WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                   
LONG TERM....HOLSTEN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
930 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE                                                    
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATE LED TO SOME RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS             
FOR A TIME INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOW THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED              
QUITE A BIT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER..WITH CONT CYCLONIC              
FLOW AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL RH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED                    
TO CONT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. --21                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...                               
SNOW IS THE WORD OF THE DAY...EVEN FOR THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA            
THAT MISSED IT LAST NIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE            
SEEN TEMPS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S..WITH SOME SEEING MORE             
SUN ACROSS NEAR THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND PUSHED AT OR JUST ABOVE 40.             
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE                   
SUN...HAVE CAUSED MANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS A                    
WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE CWA. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH QUICK ACCUMS UP TO            
AN INCH POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING                 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING FEATURE               
ACROSS THE AREA WAS THE IMPACT OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT FROM LAKE                   
MI...BUT LK ERIE!! THIS WAS A FIRST FOR ME HERE AND AFTER CONFERRING            
WITH OTHER REGIONAL OFFICES...MOST ALL SAID THE SAME. MOISTURE                  
PULLED WEST FROM LK ERIE ACROSS NW OH INTO INDIANA AND THEN SOUTH               
INTO NORTHERN KY...HAVE SPAWNED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING                 
SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 65. WHAT A AFTERNOON... NOW FOR             
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                        
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH            
LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING...WITH SMALL QUICK ACCUMS OF LESS THAN INCH             
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS POSSIBLE...A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE                 
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA MAY OCCUR. STEEP LAPSE                          
RATES...BUFKIT SHOW STRONG VALUES NEARING 9 TO 10 C/KM...DUE TO THE             
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO OUR AREA                  
TONIGHT. RUC HAS BEEN WELL AHEAD OF THIS THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH               
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND NAM. ALL SHOULD QUIET DOWN SOME LATE              
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED               
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.                                                            
ON SUNDAY....WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FROM LK MI MOISTURE STREAMING DOWN                  
ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                
HAVE KEPT CHC/SCTD WORDING. MOS BLEND FORE TEMPS STILL LOOKS VERY               
REASONABLE. --SCHOTT                                                            
.LONG TERM                                                                      
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                               
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL UNDERGO A BIG CHANGE DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD. EARLY DEEP TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS WILL             
BE SLOW TO CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 8H RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH 12Z                  
MONDAY. ALSO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE                 
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MID                  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR             
TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY THAN                  
MONDAY AS 8H READINGS INCREASE 16C FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED.             
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                 
MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A BROAD WESTERN            
UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.            
THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND             
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REACHING            
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.                                               
THE MODELS DEVIATE DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE                   
DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE               
EASTERN U.S.. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO              
VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HOLD THE FRONT CLOSER             
TO THE REGION. FOR THIS PERIOD WE WILL COMPROMISE AND HOLD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DROP            
POPS BELOW 14% SATURDAY.                                                        
A COMBINATION OF OPERATIONAL AND AVERAGE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES              
HAVE MAINLY BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. IF THE WARMER EUROPEAN                 
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE                
ADJUSTED UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. --JA                                      
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
255 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...                               
SNOW IS THE WORD OF THE DAY...EVEN FOR THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA            
THAT MISSED IT LAST NIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE            
SEEN TEMPS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S..WITH SOME SEEING MORE             
SUN ACROSS NEAR THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND PUSHED AT OR JUST ABOVE 40.             
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE                   
SUN...HAVE CAUSED MANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS A                    
WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE CWA. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH QUICK ACCUMS UP TO            
AN INCH POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING                 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING FEATURE               
ACROSS THE AREA WAS THE IMPACT OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT FROM LAKE                   
MI...BUT LK ERIE!! THIS WAS A FIRST FOR ME HERE AND AFTER CONFERRING            
WITH OTHER REGIONAL OFFICES...MOST ALL SAID THE SAME. MOISTURE                  
PULLED WEST FROM LK ERIE ACROSS NW OH INTO INDIANA AND THEN SOUTH               
INTO NORTHERN KY...HAVE SPAWNED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING                 
SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 65. WHAT A AFTERNOON... NOW FOR             
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                        
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH            
LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING...WITH SMALL QUICK ACCUMS OF LESS THAN INCH             
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS POSSIBLE...A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE                 
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA MAY OCCUR. STEEP LAPSE                          
RATES...BUFKIT SHOW STRONG VALUES NEARING 9 TO 10 C/KM...DUE TO THE             
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO OUR AREA                  
TONIGHT. RUC HAS BEEN WELL AHEAD OF THIS THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH               
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND NAM. ALL SHOULD QUIET DOWN SOME LATE              
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED               
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.                                                            
ON SUNDAY....WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FROM LK MI MOISTURE STREAMING DOWN                  
ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                
HAVE KEPT CHC/SCTD WORDING. MOS BLEND FORE TEMPS STILL LOOKS VERY               
REASONABLE. --SCHOTT                                                            
.LONG TERM                                                                      
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                               
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL UNDERGO A BIG CHANGE DURING THIS FORECAST                 
PERIOD. EARLY DEEP TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS WILL             
BE SLOW TO CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 8H RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH 12Z                  
MONDAY. ALSO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE                 
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MID                  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR             
TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY THAN                  
MONDAY AS 8H READINGS INCREASE 16C FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED.             
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                 
MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A BROAD WESTERN            
UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.            
THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND             
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REACHING            
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.                                               
THE MODELS DEVIATE DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE                   
DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE               
EASTERN U.S.. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO              
VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HOLD THE FRONT CLOSER             
TO THE REGION. FOR THIS PERIOD WE WILL COMPROMISE AND HOLD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DROP            
POPS BELOW 14% SATURDAY.                                                        
A COMBINATION OF OPERATIONAL AND AVERAGE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES              
HAVE MAINLY BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. IF THE WARMER EUROPEAN                 
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE                
ADJUSTED UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. --JA                                      
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...                                                         
DEFORMATION AREA PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS MOVING                 
INTO EASTERN KY...JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS MOVING               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE            
LUNCHHOUR.  WILL LET THE SNOW ADVISORY DROP AT NOON EST...AS                    
SCHEDULED...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS TO OCCUR WITH THE SCTD SNOW                  
SHOWERS..AND THOSE ARE MOSTLY IN AREAS WHERE NO SNOW HAS                        
FALLEN...MAINLY SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE LOUISVILLE                 
METRO. RUC SHOWS VERY WELL...AS DOES THE NAM12...MOISTURE FROM THE              
LAKE MICH BEING PULLED DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IN CONJUNCTION             
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCING            
DECENT LAPSE RATES. THESE WILL HELP THE SCTD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND             
TRANSIT SOME EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS               
POSSIBLE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LITTLE CAA SO TEMPS              
WILL BUMP SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST              
AREA...SO NO CHANCGE NEEDED THERE. NEW ZONES WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON.            
-SCHOTT                                                                         
MESO UPDATE...                                                                  
06Z MESOETA DID A FAIR JOB PICKING UP THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER            
THE CENTRAL CWFA AT THIS TIME. IT KEEPS THE BAND OVER OUR AREA THIS             
MORNING...SLIDING IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT 700-500HPA                  
FRONTOGENESIS...FN VECTORS AND FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE...OMEGA...AND               
RH...THE MODEL PEAKS THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND AROUND 15Z FORTY                 
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CARLISLE TO CAMPBELLSVILLE TO                  
SCOTTSVILLE AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AT A CROSS SECTION CUT FROM                   
WESTERN INDIANA TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE 2D FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE SEEN             
SLOPING UPWARD TOWARD COLDER AIR IN THE 700-500HPA LAYER COINCIDENT             
WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER LEXINGTON AT 15Z. CURRENT RADAR              
TRENDS SHOW THE BAND AT LEAST MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. SO...AT THE            
VERY LEAST WE DO EXPECT THE BAND TO KEEP GOING AS IT BUDGES SLOWLY              
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY GAINING A BIT OF STRENGTH AROUND MID-MORNING.               
THE BAND SHOULD THEN BE LARGELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY THE LUNCH              
HOUR...AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE LMK CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL            
RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN                      
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN               
EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR ALL COUNTIES CURRENTLY AND FORECAST TO BE                 
AFFECTED BY THIS SNOW BAND.  13                                                 
451 AM EST MESO UPDATE...                                                       
BAND OF SNOW LOOKING RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR FROM CYNTHIANA AND              
PARIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH HODGENVILLE TO RUSSELLVILLE WITH DBZ                
RETURNS AS HIGH AS 29 DBZ...ESPECIALLY AROUND MERCER COUNTY. A                  
CHECK OF WEATHER CAMS IN LEXINGTON...CYNTHIANA...CARLISLE...                    
RICHMOND...HARRODSBURG...AND DANVILLE SHOWS THAT ROADWAYS ARE WET               
BUT FREE OF SNOW...SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO                   
DEEP...AND VISIBILITIES ARE GOOD. AIRPORT VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE               
BAND OF SNOW ARE FROM ONE AND A QUARTER TO 2 MILES. SO IT APPEARS               
THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS NOT GETTING OUT OF HAND...BUT WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO INCREASE TODAYS             
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR             
ALL OF THE COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED BY THIS BAND OF SNOW.  13                    
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SURFACE LOW NEAR DOTHAN ALABAMA AT 07Z WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO               
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN TO JUST OFF OF THE JERSEY               
SHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL                  
DEPART TO OUR EAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.                                             
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST              
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM ILLINOIS              
TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM IS REVEALED NICELY ON NATIONAL RADAR LOOPS                 
SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES              
THIS MORNING. SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
SOUTHEAST STORM WILL MOVE OUT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED              
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.                            
VERY INTERESTING BAND OF SNOW SET UP AROUND MIDNIGHT GENERALLY FROM             
CYNTHIANA TO BARDSTOWN TO MORGANTOWN...AND HAS STAYED PUT. WEATHER              
OBSERVATIONS PLUS CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW REPORTED            
ABOUT HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM EST.             
MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL AT ALL. RADAR TRENDS                 
HOWEVER SHOW IT NOT ONLY HANGING IN THERE...BUT INTENSIFYING AND                
WIDENING AS WELL. SO...WOULD EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN FOR SEVERAL              
MORE HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DROP MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AWAY                
FROM THAT BAND...LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT SWELLED NORTHWARD              
INTO THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY HAD LARGELY FALLEN APART BY 07Z...BUT            
WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF RE-ORGANIZING BY 08Z.                                      
SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORY GOING AND WILL TACK ON A FEW                    
COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT BAND OF LIGHT TO               
MODERATE SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD RANGE               
FROM LITTLE IF ANY IN INDIANA TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTH              
OF LOUISVILLE...INCLUDING FRANKFORT...BOWLING GREEN...AND LEXINGTON.            
THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SLIDE IN ANOTHER HALF AN               
INCH OF GENERAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ANOTHER GENERAL            
INCH TONIGHT AS THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE.                                      
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...WITH 07Z READINGS MOSTLY IN               
THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE IN AREAS WHERE IT WAS PRECIPITATING. FOR              
HIGHS TODAY I TOOK THE 07Z READINGS AND ADDED JUST A COUPLE OF                  
DEGREES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THUS...ROADS             
SHOULD REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE TODAY EVEN IN AREAS OF MODERATE              
SNOWFALL. FOUR INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND 40                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
ALSO OF INTEREST...WIDESPREAD DENSE FREEZING FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT               
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. AS OF 08Z THE FOG HAD              
STAYED WEST OF THE LMK CWFA AND SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST MOST             
OF THE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THIS               
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ANY             
DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE               
FROM TELL CITY TO SALEM.  13                                                    
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL RUNS THIS EVENING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE            
NEAR TERM.  THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROF              
OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE PD.  WITHIN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...A             
GOOD NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH             
THE TROF.  THESE UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA              
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND               
AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  IT APPEARS THAT FAVORED             
AREA WILL BE THE BLUEGRASS REGION SO HAVE KEPT 40 POPS IN THERE FOR             
SUNDAY.  LATEST STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR SUNDAY             
HIGHS TOPPING IN THE LOWER 30S.                                                 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
EXTENDED FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM                
THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS.  DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL EVENTUALLY                 
SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AS TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE                      
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.  OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW LOOKS TO GO ZONAL BY                
AROUND MIDWEEK...WITH THIS IN MIND...FEEL THAT A MODERATION IN                  
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.  I HAVE ADJUSTED                   
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z ENSEMBLE                       
MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE MON/TUE PERIOD.  FEEL THAT WE COULD STILL                
HAVE SOME SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN PARTS OF THE CWA THAT WOULD KEEP            
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...THUS WENT A LITTLE UNDER THE ENSEMBLE                 
GUIDANCE HERE.                                                                  
FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO GO MORE                 
ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE H5 CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL            
CANADA.  00Z GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS A HEALTHY MID-LAT CYCLONE OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN SHUNTS IT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE              
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF              
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AROUND THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THE                
OPERATIONAL RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEAN.              
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU-FRI AS FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.                   
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN GIVEN THE WARMER                     
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT TO OUR               
SOUTH SETTING UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.               
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS A LITTLE MURKY OUT THAT FAR BUT A RAIN TO              
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SATURDAY.  FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MADE               
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. -33                     
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...SNOW ADVISORY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BUTLER-FRANKLIN COUNTY                  
     LINE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1105 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...WELL...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT INLAND THUS             
FAR...EVEN THOUGH 1000-850MB WIND FIELDS DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AND             
ANALYSES ARE LESS THAN 5-10KTS AND WE HAD SEEN INDICATIONS OF LAND              
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. FEEL THAT WITH DECENT LES PARAMETERS...-12C H8              
AIR...INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5500 FEET...AND LIGHT N TO NW FLOW                   
KEEPING PERIODS OF MODERATE LES SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTENT ALONG MAINLY            
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE              
COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.                  
INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER VIGOROUS...WITH THE                      
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. THESE LES                     
PARAMETERS HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE TO             
15 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD GET THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF               
LAKE MICHIGAN (IN NW SNOWBELTS) INTO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                  
THEREFORE...WILL LET ADVISORY GO THROUGH TOMORROW.     SMD                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 940 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                           
UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE            
ON THE DECREASE ACROSS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY...BUT MESOSCALE LOW             
ROTATING INTO NE LUCE COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS FEATURE TO BRING            
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING. ACROSS             
NRN LOWER...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH SNOW RATES LIKELY TOPPING AN               
INCH PER HOUR ARE SEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND                
HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE EMMET COUNTY COAST. THIS                 
PROCESS JUST STARTING...AS DEEPER MOISTURE NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE.              
CURRENT FORECAST OF HOLDING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OR ALONG THE FIRST 20             
MILES OR SO INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THERE              
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED...ARE THE              
WEAK WIND FIELDS GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE STRONGER                
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO PERIODICALLY BATTER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH             
THE NIGHT? CURRENT OBSERVATIONS NOT HELPING WITH CALM WINDS UP AND              
DOWN THE COAST...IF SFC WINDS TRY AND GO EASTERLY...INDICATIONS WILL            
BE THAT THE SNOW MAY PREDOMINANTLY HANG OFF THE COAST. LATEST                   
NAM/RUC 1000-850MB WINDS IF ANYTHING ARE SLIGHT WEAKER AT 5-10KTS               
RATHER THAN 10 KTS. (THIS WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE SEEMS RATHER                    
INSIGNIFICANT...BUT FOR NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER...THIS COULD MEAN                  
LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR COASTLINE LOCALES).             
THE WEAKER WINDS OFF THE LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE                
FIRST 20 MILES INLAND OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND IT             
MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (WHEN WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND                 
10KTS) WHEN SOME OF THE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE SNOW.            
CANNOT ARGUE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE            
ON AT LEAST THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IF I WERE TO DO ANYTHING...I               
BELIEVE I WOULD WANT TO ACTUALLY CUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST             
OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE              
AREAS ONLY HAVE FLURRIES GOING IN CURRENT FORECAST...AND DO SEE SOME            
LOWERING CEILINGS (~5KFT OR SO) ARRIVING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE              
NIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES COULD FALL FROM THIS AT ANY TIME...SO ATTM            
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OR UPDATES. WILL RATHER KEEP AN             
EYE ON THE EVOLUTION/INLAND EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. DO NOT HAVE             
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO ALTER THE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE                    
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WILL JUST HAVE TO INCLUDE THOSE AMOUNTS UP                 
THROUGH EMMET COUNTY WHERE STRONGEST ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY WORKING               
TOWARD.    SMD                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                           
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...NORTHERN MI REMAINS IN GENERAL              
WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...WITH BULK OF THE ACTION FOCUS            
ON DEVELOPING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.  NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  GOOD DEAL OF FLAT SC ACROSS MOST             
OF NORTHERN LOWER...SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO            
SAGINAW BAY.  NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING APART.  FARTHER            
NORTH...LOOKS LIKE SOME REMNANTS OF A LAKE VORTEX SLIDING ACROSS                
CENTRAL UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS            
INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.  A SECOND VORTEX NORTH OF WHITEFISH               
POINT SPREADING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THAT AREA FOR THE             
MOST PART.  BAND OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER ALONG TAIL END OF SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF HUDSON BAY...               
BACK TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER.  FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT DEAL            
WITH EFFECTS OF THIS MOISTURE BAND...PRIMARILY WITH REGARDS TO LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT.                                                                    
FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FORCING WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE             
TROUGH IS WEAK...AND BY ITSELF WOULD PROBABLY NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE              
THAN FLURRIES.  BUT THE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...              
WITH ONE EXCEPTION.  850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND -14C...WITH            
INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850MB.  DOWNSIDE IS THE WEAK WIND                 
FIELDS...1000-850MB WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND CONTINUED LAND                  
BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY KEEP A LOT OF ENHANCEMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE            
AND KEEP CONVECTION DISORGANIZED (I.E., NO BANDING).  THIS HAS AN               
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...COULD EASILY SEE LESS THAN AN                
INCH TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW SMALL SCALE                      
CONVERGENCE ZONES SET UP AND WHERE RESULTANT CONVECTION IMPACTS.                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PERSISTENT MESOLOW IN SURFACE OBS NORTHEAST              
OF WHITEFISH POINT (EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT WHITEFISH/ANJ/YAM/                  
CIU)...WILL LIKELY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND SERVE AS A              
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...QUESTION IS WILL A LOT OF THIS COME            
ONSHORE OR REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.  SAME STORY FOR NORTHWEST                  
LOWER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OUT ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT              
OF LAND BREEZE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT FOCUS              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT AGAIN HOW MUCH OF THAT MAKES IT ONSHORE WILL             
BE THE BIG QUESTION.  SO WILL PLAY SNOW AMOUNTS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD              
(NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAD GOING)...2-4 INCH                   
AMOUNTS ALONG US-31 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND AROUND THE WEST             
SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...TAPERING THINGS BACK                 
QUICKLY INLAND WHERE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE REDUCED.  BUT DON'T BE              
SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING              
IF THINGS GET OUT OF HAND LOCALLY.                                              
JPB                                                                             
LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL TEMPORARILY             
BE EJECTED AS THE NOR/EASTER MARCHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS            
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS            
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME QUICK SHOTS OF SNOW WITH            
IT THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                    
WEEK...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION MODELS AGREE ON             
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAIN                    
CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR THE              
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SYSTEM FOR               
THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.                                                        
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL CROSS              
THE REGION WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES              
TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING TO            
THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE CLIPPER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW...LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND 850            
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -14C AND -16C. VISIBLE SATELLITE                
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE ON THE LAKES ATTM...SO              
WILL NOT REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO ICE BUT ACTUALLY INCREASE             
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING AOA 850 MB AROUND 18Z              
WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED TO AROUND -15C AND BELOW LIMITING              
DENDRITIC GROWTH SLIGHTLY. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST                
LOWER SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH CLIPPER RAPIDLY TRACKING EAST AND DRIER             
AIR MAKING AN ENTRANCE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONE TO TWO INCH                        
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND NEAR PARADISE AND            
WHITEFISH POINT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE THE NEXT                   
CLIPPER IN THE SERIES WILL ROLL INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL               
STILL BE IN THE -16C RANGE BACKING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF               
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION            
WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE                  
EXTENDING TO NEARLY -20C WITH WAA PUSHING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO            
AROUND -10C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN                     
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND FAR                
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AROUND TWO INCHES WITH AN INCH OR LESS                 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE            
INCH AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF                
SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                                                              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO                 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CA TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ACROSS              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS CLIPPER A BIT               
MORE THAN PREVIOUS CLIPPERS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTHWARD.             
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WITH THIS CLIPPER SHOULD BE OVER THE TIP OF THE              
MITT AND EASTERN UPPER AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE            
EASTERN US. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS               
TIME FRAME AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -6C...KEEPING THE              
LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO A MINIMUM. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT            
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE                
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH             
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-800 MB WILL KEEP                
MOST OF THE AREA TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST               
CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER.                      
WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER              
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE            
BEGINS TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION. MODELS                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY               
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GULF OPEN AND WAA OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY              
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MOISTURE SEEMS APPROPRIATE. ONE AREA OF                   
CONCERN TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME               
FRAME WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...850 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0C             
WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS OF 540 DAM SPLITTING THE CWFA. WITH                  
MODELS BEGINNING TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT CHANGE               
FROM SNOW ATTM...BUT A WINTRY MIX IS CURRENTLY NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION. ALSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN                 
FURTHER AND CENTER OVER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                   
NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MORE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD               
FROM THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT              
AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.                
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY FOR THURSDAY AND                       
BEYOND...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN                
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON                
POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY/THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF               
THE WORK WEEK AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN                
DESIRABLE...BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING. A COUPLE OF MAJOR POINTS REMAIN               
PROMINENT IN THE MODELS...FIRST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN                 
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL             
ALLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ZONAL PATTERN              
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEMS MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WILL             
BE POSSIBLE. SECOND...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN              
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIKELY PRODUCE DEVELOPMENT             
AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US                  
(CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING). ALL POINTS CONSIDERED CURRENT             
GFS SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT                   
TRACK..INTENSITY AND TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TREND            
TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...                         
      MIZ016-019>021-025-026-031                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LES TRENDS.                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL TROF DOMINATING             
THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SRN               
PLAINS. A WEAK SHRTWV TROF WAS LOCATED NEAR CYQT-KDLH WITH ANOTHER              
TRAILING OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER               
THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS (AOB 15KT) A WEAK MESO               
LOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER SE LK SUPERIOR AS PART OF LAKES AGGREGATE                
TROFFING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY NW WINDS PREVAILED ACRS THE WRN LAKES.             
EVEN THOUGH 01Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG WITH 850 MB TEMP NEAR -14C AND                 
INVERSION TOP NEAR 8K FT(-21C) SUPPORTS LES...WITH WEAK WINDS...SHSN            
HAVE BEEN MAINLY CELLULAR/TRANSIENT.                                            
00Z NAM AND LAPS WRF SUGGEST THAT SLOWLY VEERING WINDS WILL KEEP LES            
MAINLY OVER W UPR MI AND LOCATIONS E OF MARQUETTE. BEST 950 MB                  
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED BTWN IWD AND ROCKLAND AND TOWARD                    
KP53(AIDED BY LAND BREEZE). UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS FAVORABLE PER             
KDLH TAMDAR SNDG...BUT INVERSION HGTS WERE BLO 5K FT. SO...GOING                
FCST REMAINED ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006.                                  
UPR LEVELS SIMILAR TO YDY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVR W CANADA/CONUS AND               
TROUGH OVR E CANADA/CONUS. PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM E COAST             
TOWARD N FL WITH SFC HIGH OVR MAJORITY OF COUNTRY. SFC LOW OVR GA/SC            
WILL DEVELOP INTO MAJOR EAST COAST STORM BY SUN AM WHILE NW-N FLOW              
WITH SEASONABLY COLD AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE UPR LAKES HELPING TO SPUR             
ON SOME LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES                 
BEGINNING TO CREST W RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOW PRES CLIPPER SYSTEMS              
OVR THE UPR LAKES MON AND TUE. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES LATE IN THE               
WEEK WHICH HELPS PROPEL A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS INTO N PLAINS              
AND UPR GREAT LAKES.                                                            
PRIMARY CONCERN IS EXTENT OF LK EFFECT SNOW THROUGH MON. WIDELY                 
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING               
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS             
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. LIFT FM FEATURE IS WEAK BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME            
FLURRIES OVR N MN INTO ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. TAMDAR                
SOUNDING FM YQT AND 12Z SOUNDING FM KINL SIMILAR WITH FAIRLY MOIST              
PROFILE TO 800MB AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -16C. N WINDS TO START NIGHT              
QUICKLY BACK NW AND THIS WILL PUT EMPHASIS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVR W               
CWA AND OVR ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES AS H95 CONVERGENCE FM NAM               
AND GFS INDICATES. EXPECT LK EFFECT TO BECOME MORE ORGAINIZED AS                
NIGHT PROGRESSES COMPARED TO ECHOES CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR. SINCE              
THE LIFT IS WEAK TREATED THIS LIKE A PURE LK EFFECT CASE AND THAT               
RESULTS IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF LESS THAN 4"/12HR BOTH                   
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT VEERING OF WINDS SUN AM COULD PUSH SNOW              
SHOWERS INTO AREAS FAVORED BY N WINDS SO THE HIGHER POPS ALONG ALL              
LK SUPERIOR ON SUN LOOK FINE.                                                   
LOOKS LIKE THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING BY LATE SUN EVENING INTO SUN            
NIGHT AND MONDAY ON THE KEWEENAW. OTHER THAN THE NAM...GUIDANCE IN              
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FIRST CLIPPER LOW PRES MOVING TO N MN BY 12Z             
MON. THIS ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BACK W/SW OVR MN INTO W HALF OF UPR              
MI. EXCEPTION IS OVR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR AS COLD NW FLOW REMAINS                
ENTRENCHED. RESULT IS AREA OF SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVR W LK             
SUPERIOR INTO MIDDLE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN 06Z-09Z MON AND                    
POSSIBLY PERSISTING WELL INTO MON AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ON KEWEENAW FOR THE PERIOD AROUND 5KFT WITH TEMPS AT H85                
NEAR -15C. THIS IS AN OKAY SETUP FOR PURE LK EFFECT WITH WATER TEMPS            
RUNNING AROUND +2C ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER...GFS SHOWS AND UKMET/ECMWF              
SUGGEST INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING            
PROFILE WHICH RESULTS IN LK ENHANCEMENT FOR KEWEENAW. +18C DELTA T/S            
VERY GOOD FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. NAM IS MUCH DRIER...JUST SHOWING AN               
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A            
HINT OF UPPER LEVEL JET/DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER KEWEENAW SUN            
NIGHT INTO MON AM. THE MAIN QUESTION IS MOISTURE. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF               
ALL INDICATE RIBBON OF HIGHER H85/H7 RH SLIDING INTO W LK SUPERIOR.             
WHILE THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH VRY DRY SOUNDING BLO H85.                     
YET WITH HINTS FROM GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MORE THAN              
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE SUN EVENING INTO MON EVENING.             
WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO THE SW LATER MON NIGHT TO AT LEAST DISRUPT BAND            
ORGANIZATION IF NOT END THE SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN ON THE KEWEENAW.                
SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE MON NIGHT INTO                
TUE. TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE IS                      
CONSISTENT. TRACK OF LOW IN QUESTION THOUGH. 12Z GFS ACTUALLY                   
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER N (CLOSER TO NAM) WHILE ECWMF/UKMET SUPPORT A             
TRACK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH WHERE A            
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR.                                                
EXTENDED (WED THROUGH SAT)...COLDER AIR GRADUALLY SPILLS INTO UPR               
LAKES BUT WITH PRIMARY UPR TROUGH AXIS RESIDING FM CNTRL CANADA TO              
WEST CONUS THE MOST INTENSE COLD AIR (H85 TEMPS NEAR -30C) WILL                 
REMAIN TO THE WEST. TIMING WITH LOW PRES/FRONT THAT USHERS IN COLD              
AIR STILL IN QUESTION WITH GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MOST PROGRESSIVE AND               
STRONGEST WHILE ECMWF/UKMET LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND MORE SUPPRESSED               
WITH SFC TROUGH. 12Z ECMWF STARTS TO TREND TOWARD GFS THOUGH...                 
INTERESTING. OBVIOUSLY...LARGE DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY            
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE SO CAN NOT LATCH ONTO ANY ONE             
SOLN ATTM. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOOD NUMBER OF                   
ENSEMBLES FM THE CANADIAN AND REFORECAST ENSEMBLES ACTUALLY SUPPORT             
A STRONGER SYSTEM AS GFS IS INDICATING. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE             
TWO MAIN IDEAS. THIS RESULTS IN A FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH LATE WED               
INTO THU WITH A SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL GREAT                
LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WAVE IS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT                
SNOW OVR MUCH OF UPR MI WITHIN CYCLONIC NE FLOW. WILL QUICKLY                   
MENTION THE SYSTEM IN THE HWO.                                                  
COORD WITH GRB.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE SUN EVENING THROUGH MON EVENING                    
 MIZ001-003.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
JLA(PREV DISC)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
940 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE            
ON THE DECREASE ACROSS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY...BUT MESOSCALE LOW             
ROTATING INTO NE LUCE COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS FEATURE TO BRING            
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING. ACROSS             
NRN LOWER...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH SNOW RATES LIKELY TOPPING AN               
INCH PER HOUR ARE SEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND                
HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE EMMET COUNTY COAST. THIS                 
PROCESS JUST STARTING...AS DEEPER MOISTURE NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE.              
CURRENT FORECAST OF HOLDING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OR ALONG THE FIRST 20             
MILES OR SO INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THERE              
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED...ARE THE              
WEAK WIND FIELDS GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE STRONGER                
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO PERIODICALLY BATTER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH             
THE NIGHT? CURRENT OBSERVATIONS NOT HELPING WITH CALM WINDS UP AND              
DOWN THE COAST...IF SFC WINDS TRY AND GO EASTERLY...INDICATIONS WILL            
BE THAT THE SNOW MAY PREDOMINANTLY HANG OFF THE COAST. LATEST                   
NAM/RUC 1000-850MB WINDS IF ANYTHING ARE SLIGHT WEAKER AT 5-10KTS               
RATHER THAN 10 KTS. (THIS WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE SEEMS RATHER                    
INSIGNIFICANT...BUT FOR NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER...THIS COULD MEAN                  
LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR COASTLINE LOCALES).             
THE WEAKER WINDS OFF THE LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE                
FIRST 20 MILES INLAND OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND IT             
MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (WHEN WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND                 
10KTS) WHEN SOME OF THE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE SNOW.            
CANNOT ARGUE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE            
ON AT LEAST THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IF I WERE TO DO ANYTHING...I               
BELIEVE I WOULD WANT TO ACTUALLY CUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST             
OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE              
AREAS ONLY HAVE FLURRIES GOING IN CURRENT FORECAST...AND DO SEE SOME            
LOWERING CEILINGS (~5KFT OR SO) ARRIVING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE              
NIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES COULD FALL FROM THIS AT ANY TIME...SO ATTM            
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OR UPDATES. WILL RATHER KEEP AN             
EYE ON THE EVOLUTION/INLAND EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. DO NOT HAVE             
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO ALTER THE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE                    
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WILL JUST HAVE TO INCLUDE THOSE AMOUNTS UP                 
THROUGH EMMET COUNTY WHERE STRONGEST ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY WORKING               
TOWARD.    SMD                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                           
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...NORTHERN MI REMAINS IN GENERAL              
WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...WITH BULK OF THE ACTION FOCUS            
ON DEVELOPING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.  NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  GOOD DEAL OF FLAT SC ACROSS MOST             
OF NORTHERN LOWER...SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO            
SAGINAW BAY.  NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING APART.  FARTHER            
NORTH...LOOKS LIKE SOME REMNANTS OF A LAKE VORTEX SLIDING ACROSS                
CENTRAL UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS            
INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.  A SECOND VORTEX NORTH OF WHITEFISH               
POINT SPREADING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THAT AREA FOR THE             
MOST PART.  BAND OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER ALONG TAIL END OF SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF HUDSON BAY...               
BACK TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER.  FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT DEAL            
WITH EFFECTS OF THIS MOISTURE BAND...PRIMARILY WITH REGARDS TO LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT.                                                                    
FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FORCING WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE             
TROUGH IS WEAK...AND BY ITSELF WOULD PROBABLY NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE              
THAN FLURRIES.  BUT THE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...              
WITH ONE EXCEPTION.  850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND -14C...WITH            
INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850MB.  DOWNSIDE IS THE WEAK WIND                 
FIELDS...1000-850MB WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND CONTINUED LAND                  
BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY KEEP A LOT OF ENHANCEMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE            
AND KEEP CONVECTION DISORGANIZED (I.E., NO BANDING).  THIS HAS AN               
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...COULD EASILY SEE LESS THAN AN                
INCH TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW SMALL SCALE                      
CONVERGENCE ZONES SET UP AND WHERE RESULTANT CONVECTION IMPACTS.                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PERSISTENT MESOLOW IN SURFACE OBS NORTHEAST              
OF WHITEFISH POINT (EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT WHITEFISH/ANJ/YAM/                  
CIU)...WILL LIKELY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND SERVE AS A              
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...QUESTION IS WILL A LOT OF THIS COME            
ONSHORE OR REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.  SAME STORY FOR NORTHWEST                  
LOWER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OUT ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT              
OF LAND BREEZE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT FOCUS              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT AGAIN HOW MUCH OF THAT MAKES IT ONSHORE WILL             
BE THE BIG QUESTION.  SO WILL PLAY SNOW AMOUNTS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD              
(NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAD GOING)...2-4 INCH                   
AMOUNTS ALONG US-31 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND AROUND THE WEST             
SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...TAPERING THINGS BACK                 
QUICKLY INLAND WHERE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE REDUCED.  BUT DON'T BE              
SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING              
IF THINGS GET OUT OF HAND LOCALLY.                                              
JPB                                                                             
LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL TEMPORARILY             
BE EJECTED AS THE NOR/EASTER MARCHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS            
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS            
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME QUICK SHOTS OF SNOW WITH            
IT THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                    
WEEK...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION MODELS AGREE ON             
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAIN                    
CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR THE              
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SYSTEM FOR               
THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.                                                        
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL CROSS              
THE REGION WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES              
TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING TO            
THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE CLIPPER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW...LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND 850            
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -14C AND -16C. VISIBLE SATELLITE                
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE ON THE LAKES ATTM...SO              
WILL NOT REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO ICE BUT ACTUALLY INCREASE             
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING AOA 850 MB AROUND 18Z              
WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED TO AROUND -15C AND BELOW LIMITING              
DENDRITIC GROWTH SLIGHTLY. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST                
LOWER SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH CLIPPER RAPIDLY TRACKING EAST AND DRIER             
AIR MAKING AN ENTRANCE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONE TO TWO INCH                        
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND NEAR PARADISE AND            
WHITEFISH POINT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE THE NEXT                   
CLIPPER IN THE SERIES WILL ROLL INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL               
STILL BE IN THE -16C RANGE BACKING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF               
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION            
WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE                  
EXTENDING TO NEARLY -20C WITH WAA PUSHING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO            
AROUND -10C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN                     
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND FAR                
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AROUND TWO INCHES WITH AN INCH OR LESS                 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE            
INCH AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF                
SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                                                              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO                 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CA TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ACROSS              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS CLIPPER A BIT               
MORE THAN PREVIOUS CLIPPERS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTHWARD.             
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WITH THIS CLIPPER SHOULD BE OVER THE TIP OF THE              
MITT AND EASTERN UPPER AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE            
EASTERN US. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS               
TIME FRAME AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -6C...KEEPING THE              
LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO A MINIMUM. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT            
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE                
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH             
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-800 MB WILL KEEP                
MOST OF THE AREA TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST               
CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER.                      
WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER              
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE            
BEGINS TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION. MODELS                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY               
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GULF OPEN AND WAA OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY              
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MOISTURE SEEMS APPROPRIATE. ONE AREA OF                   
CONCERN TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME               
FRAME WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...850 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0C             
WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS OF 540 DAM SPLITTING THE CWFA. WITH                  
MODELS BEGINNING TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT CHANGE               
FROM SNOW ATTM...BUT A WINTRY MIX IS CURRENTLY NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION. ALSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN                 
FURTHER AND CENTER OVER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                   
NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MORE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD               
FROM THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT              
AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.                
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY FOR THURSDAY AND                       
BEYOND...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN                
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON                
POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY/THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF               
THE WORK WEEK AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN                
DESIRABLE...BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING. A COUPLE OF MAJOR POINTS REMAIN               
PROMINENT IN THE MODELS...FIRST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN                 
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL             
ALLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ZONAL PATTERN              
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEMS MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WILL             
BE POSSIBLE. SECOND...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN              
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIKELY PRODUCE DEVELOPMENT             
AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US                  
(CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING). ALL POINTS CONSIDERED CURRENT             
GFS SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT                   
TRACK..INTENSITY AND TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TREND            
TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
340 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO REAL CHANGES.                    
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS THEY FILL IN AND              
THE ECHOES INCREASE ON THE RADAR. RUC ANALYSIS PUTS THE TROUGH AXIS             
OVER SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWESTERN AR...WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO                
FALL. DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THE MOST                  
PART...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LAYER OF                   
MOISTURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FROM AROUND 925-850. WILL GO AHEAD             
AND PUT THE FLURRIES BACK IN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR               
THIS EVENING. LOOKING FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THROUGH              
AROUND 00Z...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL. AGAIN COLD              
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES              
TO FALL MORE STEADILY OVERNIGHT. CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE                  
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE MID AND UPPER 20S. EVEN IF HE              
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THINKING WINDS STAYING UP               
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. DECIDED TO USE A BLEND               
FOR THE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWED             
TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT                
COLD AIR TO LIMIT WARMING FOR SUNDAY. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV                   
GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES                  
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MOVING            
INTO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY            
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PUSHING              
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST. THE AREA CLEARS LATE SUNDAY...SO                     
CONTINUING WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE TWO DAYS. WINDS              
WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW LKY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN              
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL.            
ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE                   
FORECAST.                                                                       
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY RETURNS MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW             
BACKS MORE WLY. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK AS LOW                
LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SERIES OF WEAK WAVES NOTED              
IN UPPER FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A HEALTHIER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS            
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A             
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN ZONES LATE THURSDAY.                         
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PARAMETER THIS PACKAGE.                 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...AS ERN                
FRINGES OF SURFACE RIDGING LINGER NEAR THE BORDER. LOWS TUESDAY                 
MORNING WILL DEPEND ON THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING VERSUS LOW            
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS                
AGREE ON GENERAL SOLUTION FOR UPCOMING PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK               
BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE                 
TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON                    
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS NUMBERS SHOW A              
DISTINCT GRADIENT FROM COLDER TEMPS ON HIGHS AND LOWS FOR NWRN ZONES            
COMPARED TO SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET REGIME WILL SET IN             
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND                
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       26  45  25  49 /  12   0   5   0                                  
MERIDIAN      26  43  25  49 /  12   0   5   0                                  
VICKSBURG     26  47  25  50 /   7   0   3   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   26  47  26  52 /   5   0   3   0                                  
NATCHEZ       26  47  26  50 /   4   0   1   0                                  
GREENVILLE    27  42  25  44 /  13   3   6   0                                  
GREENWOOD     27  40  25  45 /  14   3   8   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-               
     MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-                   
     MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-                   
     MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-                   
     MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-                   
     MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-                   
     MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.                                 
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007-               
     LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-               
     ARZ075.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/03                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1210 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN               
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE            
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SLIDING THE            
UPPER ENERGY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.  WITH THE VERY COLD AIR                    
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN UP TODAY.  RUC AND NAM MUCAPE                  
FIELDS EVEN SHOW SOME VERY WEAK CAPE OF AROUND 30 J/KG.  IN                     
ADDITION...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK UVV IN THE SATURATED               
LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO -15 DEG C RANGE               
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. WITH THESE FACTORS IN            
MIND...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION             
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHORT DURATION                  
MODERATE SNOW AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS             
WILL LIKELY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.  AS              
FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW (IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) AS                     
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.                            
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A WINTER DAY...AS A COLD AIRMASS                   
FILTERS SOUTHWARD TODAY.  850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PLUMMET INTO              
THE -10 TO -15 DEG C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY.  HIGHS THE AFTERNOON WILL             
ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.  IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST             
WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS.                               
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON               
SUNDAY.  ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE             
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE             
LESS THAN TODAY.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN            
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO               
TIGHTEN UP...INCREASING WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION.  SUSTAINED             
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND                
WESTERN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT DATA INDICATES GUST POTENTIAL            
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STRONG WINDS WILL              
REDUCE THE WIND CHILLS EVEN FURTHER...WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE             
SINGLE DIGITS FOR A TIME.                                                       
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO                
BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S AND              
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY WARMING            
TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 50S.  LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS PROGGING             
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY...BUT DIDN'T WANT ADJUST GRIDS              
UPWARD THAT MUCH JUST YET.                                                      
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS            
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH             
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE HOWEVER WITH CEILINGS RUNNING             
BETWEEN 1500 FEET AND 4000 FEET SO OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR VIS AND             
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                   
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO ABOUT 15KTS THROUGH SUNSET.                       
HATCH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
944 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...                                               
UPDATE FOR TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.             
SFC LOW IS SLOWER TO START ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AS UPPER LVL             
SUPPORT LAGS A BIT BEHIND...BUT BASED AT CURRENT                                
OBS/SAT/RADAR...SEEMS LIKE ITS STARTING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER.                
THE SLIGHTLY DELAYED INTENSIFICATION COULD DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A              
BIT IN SERN ZONES (LOWERING FORECAST BY AN INCH IN THESE AREAS).                
THE 00Z RUC SHOWS SOME SUPPORT OF THIS IDEA...AND IT ALSO SEEMS TO              
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.  ONLY OTHER CHANGES                
WERE SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER BLEND WITH CURRENT OBS.              
-CEMPA                                                                          
&&                                                                              
TONIGHT...12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF A SLIGHTLY              
MORE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH SFC LOW POSITION AND SLOWER SPEED.                     
THE 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW ALMOST IDENTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOWED WITH               
RESULTANT SNOWFALL BASED ON A MODEL BLEND OF QPF. BASED ON THIS                 
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADV TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR                        
SULLIVAN/PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE/LACKAWANNA AND LUZERNE. ISENTROPIC LIFT            
AND SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DOES REACH INTO THIS REGION LATE                 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE BULK OF THIS FORCING REMAINS WELL            
EAST OF FA. FOR THE SUSQUE REGION/NORTHERN TIER OF PA AND WESTERN               
CATSKILLS WENT LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH ACCUMS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4                  
INCHES.                                                                         
SUNDAY...SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST             
TO CAPE COD BY EVENING. EXPECT CAT/LIKELY POPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE            
ZONES THROUGH SUSQUE REGION UNTIL MIDDAY. BEHIND SYSTEM N/NW WINDS              
WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOST AREAS.                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE MAKING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL NY WITH LIKELY FAR            
NRN ZONES.                                                                      
MONDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD MAKE            
FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS NRN               
ZONES 290 FLOW THROUGH LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER WILL CONTINUE LES               
UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AND LIFTS ACTIVITY INTO             
THE EASTERN SHORE REGION. RRM                                                   
&&                                                                              
.EXTENDED (MONDAY NT - SATURDAY)...                                             
FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK... ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES            
TO RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY                  
CONDITIONS DURING THAT PERIOD AS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. LAST FEW GFS RUNS SHOW               
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON               
FRIDAY. COLDER... POSSIBLY MUCH COLDER... WX WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE             
FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.   MSE                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12/00Z TO 13/00Z)...                                                 
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 06Z ACROSS MAJORITY OF TAF SITES.                     
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVP WHERE CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY 04Z.  STEADY -SN              
LIKELY AT KAVP UNTIL 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.  SCTD -SHSN            
AT KBGM/KELM/KITH AFTER 06Z...DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE              
AT KSYR AND KUCA.                                                               
WINDS SHIFT FROM E TO N LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO 10-15KTS AS                
SYSTEM DEPARTS.  CIGS REMAIN MVFR THRU SUNDAY.  PB                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...                 
NYZ062.                                                                         
.PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...                 
PAZ044-047-048-072.                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1023 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...INITIALLY THE NAM SEEMS TO BE                     
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN BOTH T/TD SO WILL TREND BACK FOR THE REST OF                 
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE                      
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW FEATURE OFF THE CHS COAST. THE MAIN                    
LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ATLANTA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE                       
TODAY...KEEPING A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                 
THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INLAND...BUT THE S OBX COULD BE ON THE                  
WARM SIDE ENOUGH TO SEE TEMPS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER                
THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS OF BOTH NAM/RUC SHOW                     
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER HAT...AND WITH CONVECTION SHOWING UP                  
OFFSHORE COULD SEE SOME OF THAT GET PULLED N-WARD AS THE LOW                    
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE                   
ADDED AN ISOLD TSRA FOR HAT/PAMLICO/S WATERS FOR A STRAY                        
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY HAS BEEN                
INITIALLY FROM ISEN LIFT WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT AS THE LOW BECOMES               
MORE ORGANIZED EXPECT TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
RAIN LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OFF THE COAST AND DEEPEN SIG                
BECOMING THE WINTERS FIRST MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE NE. AS IT                   
STRENGTHENS OVER DELMARVA REGION...WILL SEE SOME STRONG CAA WRAP                
AROUND THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS AWAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF                      
TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT WHERE A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN               
WITH THE RAIN BEFORE BECOMING DRY SLOTTED...MAINLY N OF HWY 264.                
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE ALL THAT IS LEFT BY EARLY SUN...BUT               
WITH STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE SOME SPITTING PRECIP                   
MAINLY IN THE N. AT THIS TIME THE CLOUD LAYER IS STILL BELOW THE                
DENDRITIC ZONE SO EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE...BUT WILL                    
MENTION FLURRIES SINCE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY ONE OR TWO                        
COMPLETELY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY             
FOR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER               
THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING. LOW             
CLOUDS AND PATCHY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IFR              
CIGS PERSISTING.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STILL A VERY TOUGH CALL WITH REGARDS TO GALE FORCE WINDS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER NC LATE TODAY. LATEST RUC40             
IS INDICATING MARGINAL GALES OVER MY CENTRAL WATERS @ 00Z. THE 06Z              
GFS AND 12Z NAM-12 KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. AT THIS TIME               
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL TRIGGER ON GALES BUT WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST                   
GUIDANCE. FOR NOW I WILL STICK WITH A STRONG SCA ESPECIALLY FOR MY              
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AFT 21Z TODAY.            
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM         
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ156-158 FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM             
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 3              
     PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAMISON                                                            
AVIATION...ELARDO                                                               
MARINE...ELARDO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
957 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRATO CUMULUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND                  
INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD                     
AMOUNTS A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE RUC SHOWS THE H8 TROF              
SWINGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FLOW                   
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED               
WITH EARLY SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW                
LEVELS UNSTABLE AND KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO                
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS AND THE H8              
TROF FLATTENS.                                                                  
TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS THE ARE...BUT 06Z MAV SUGGESTS ANOTHER                
DEGREE OR TWO FOR HIGHS. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED RATHER                    
QUICKLY ALSO...SO WILL BUMP MAXES UP A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY TO                
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE A LESSER AFFECT ON TEMPS.                     
FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AR WHERE CLOUDS ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE THICKER.  /02                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 2                                                     
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 21                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
941 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
LATEST RUC/NAM 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS MATCHING WELL WITH AREA OF            
HVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VA TO SOUTHEAST PA. MODEL DATA                 
SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT SLIGHTLY                
NORTHWRD LATER TONIGHT AS MID LVL LO PASSES ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.              
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING A LYR OF NEG EPV LOCATED JUST                 
ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS ARND 500-600MB. BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF             
VERY INTENSE BANDING...WILL MENTION WILL MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW            
TOTALS OVR YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS                    
UNCHANGED. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REST OF CWA SHOULD WIND DOWN ARND                
DAWN AS LO PULLS OFF THE COAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 353 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
AT 18Z...SFC LOW WAS NEAR COLUMBIA SC. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THEIR            
18Z PLACEMENT...WITH WRF EDGING THE ETA AND GFS OUT FOR BEST FIT. I             
LIKE THE IDEA OF THE SFC CENTER EMERGING OR JUMPING TO THE COAST                
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z OR SO AS BEST FALLS ARE NOW ALONG THE                 
COASTAL FRONT IN THAT VICINITY ALONG THE NC COAST.                              
WHAT I DON'T SEE THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR A REALLY BIG EAST                 
COAST STORM...IS GOBS AND GOBS OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM              
FROM THE GULF AND SERN STATES. YOU HAVE TO LOOK TO SOUTHERN                     
FLORIDA BEFORE FINDING A DEWPOINT ABOVE 60. WHILE PWAT VALUES ARE               
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...VALUES BARELY ABOVE AN INCH ARE WHAT THE                 
SYSTEM HAS TO FEED ON.                                                          
ANOTHER THING NOT YET PRESENT IS HUGE PRESSURE FALLS. DESPITE BEING             
AT A DIURNAL MAXIMA...3 HR FALLS ARE ONLY IN THE 3-4 MB RANGE ON THE            
COAST. MODELS DO AGREE IN CREATING MORE RAPID DEEPENING LATER THIS              
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SO FAR THE LOW IS OFF TO A MODEST                   
BEGINNING.                                                                      
FOR THE SHORT RANGE...ETA AND WRF AGREE IN REALLY WRAPPING UP THE               
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ALONG             
AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERNMOST AXIS OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SLOPED            
FORCING JUST MAKES IT UP INTO MY FAR SERN COUNTIES AND PIVOTS THERE             
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL PAINT                
MAINLY LIGHT QPF FOR THE BULK OF MY AREA...WITH HALF INCH                       
AMOUNTS...WITH A LITTLE MORE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH ONE GOES.               
HAVE UPPED FCST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES A                  
BIT...BUT OVERALL ALIGNMENT AND AMOUNTS AS LAID OUT BY THE OVERNIGHT            
SHIFT STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE KEPT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS IS.                     
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                      
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KICK IN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY              
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE               
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LAURELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM                  
THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY                
MID WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE TRAILING COLD               
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AREA FRIDAY USHERING IN A RETURN TO COOL AIR               
BY THE WEEKEND.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND FILL IN OVER THE REGION               
INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS. ONLY BFD HAS MVFR CLOUDS AT              
THIS HOUR AND NONE OF THE TERMINALS ARE SNOWING YET...BUT EXPECT                
MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET TIME OF                    
PRECIP...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME FOR JST/AOO/UNV             
AND MDT. PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z FOR BFD/IPT AND NORTHWARD. CEILINGS             
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 800-1800' RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VIS            
GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE IN THE SNOW. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW              
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE WUD BRING VIS DOWN UNDER A              
MILE AT TIMES.                                                                  
THIS SHUD LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW PULLING OFF               
THE COAST WILL TURN SFC WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WE SEE THE                 
STEADY PRECIP BECOME SHOWERY. CIG/VIS SHUD IMPROVE TO MVFR                      
EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY VFR FROM IPT TO MDT.                 
TERMINALS FURTHER WEST WILL PROB GRAPPLE WITH MVFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY            
SNOW SHOWERS FOR A WHILE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO            
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF               
HERE. ANYONE WHO SAW ACCUMULATING DRY POWDERY SNOW MAY SEE PROBLEMS             
DEVELOP WITH BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VIS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR PAZ064>066 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                            
SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063 UNTIL                  
7 AM SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
229 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO CRITICAL FORECAST PARAMETERS AS SNOW               
AMOUNTS, TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS. THIS WAS BECAUSE LATEST NAM AND               
GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, AND              
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAD ONLY A SMALL SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.               
CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE MAINTAINED WINTER-RELATED WARNINGS AND                       
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
BASED ON RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS, ALONG WITH CONSIDERING                
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CONTINUE TO EXPECT UPPER JET STREAM                
FLOW TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE UNITED              
STATES WITH A NORTHWEST ORIENTATION OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO A             
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH A WESTERLY ORIENTATION OVER OUR AREA. THIS                
CHANGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING WITH ABOVE NORMAL                 
VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.             
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW A RENEWED INJECTION OF JET ENERGY              
FROM CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE                  
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURE GOING COLDER THAN NORMAL             
THEN, ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON SOME GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE            
MEMBERS, COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE INTO                    
THE WEEK OF FEB19-25.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BASED FORECAST THROUGH 12/00Z ON RECENT RADAR, SURFACE, AND                     
SATELLITE DATA AND RUC MODEL RUNS. THESE INDICATORS HAD SNOW                    
SPREADING NORTHWARD AT 15 KTS, REACHING KPIT-KZZV LINE BY AROUND                
11/22Z, WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR (4SM -SN OVC025) FOR 2-3               
HOURS AND THEN IFR (1SM-2SM -SN OVC006-OVC010).                                 
BASED FORECAST 12/00Z THROUGH 13/00Z ON CONSENSUS OF RECENT GFS AND             
NAM MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
WITH LITTLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THESE SOLUTIONS HAD FLIGHT                     
CONDITIONS MAINLY IFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING (12/12Z-16Z), AND THEN                
IMPROVING TO MVFR AS SNOW INTENSITY LESSENED WITH LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.                   
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MDZ001 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.                         
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ030-032 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                            
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ021-022 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                            
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WVZ023-041 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
711 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LGT DRZL OVR NRN COUNTIES AS WK S/W MOVS ACRS AREA. RUC SHWS S/W                
MOVG N OF AREA NXT SVRL HRS. SAT IMAGERY SHWS CLDS THNG BHND S/W.               
WL SEND OUT UPDATE TO RM LWA. NO OTHR CHNGS ATTM.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 230 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
SURFACE CHARTS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH                       
CAROLINA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH                    
CAROLINA. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO                     
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...BUT                 
COULD STILL SEE SOME GUSTS. WILL LEAVE CURRENT LWA OUT UNTIL 00Z                
AND LET EVENING SHIFT DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD BE IN ORDER               
AFTER THAT. ALSO...ANOTHER LWA COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW            
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS. HAVE ADDED STRONGER GUSTS IN THE                
GRIDS...BUT WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE WIND POTENTIAL                 
FOR TOMORROW.                                                                   
RAIN POTENTIAL DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST.               
MAY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EXTREME EAST EARLY THIS                      
EVENING. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF CWA THIS                  
EVENING...SO DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AFTER 00Z. CLOUDS                  
WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...AND THEN EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING LATER               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
DRY PATTERN SETTING UP FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  UPPER               
LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM AN EAST COAST TROUGH TO MORE OF A                
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
DOMINATE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY...AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN             
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS WILL             
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING AS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY UNTIL             
MIDNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WINDS MAY PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION             
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS                  
SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AREA POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STAY            
UP OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON                
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
107 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEEPENING OVER OGB AREA AS WINDS ARE                     
PICKING UP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF               
THE LOW. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BECOMING QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS ANYWHERE               
FROM 2 TO 4 MB PER HOUR ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. CAE               
IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/LOW CENTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND          
FOG. RAIN HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR A COUPLE OF              
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS DRIER AIR                
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL ALSO                
START TO PICK UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE                 
HOISTED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOULTRIE AND WILL LET IT EXPIRE AT               
7 PM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 354 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MODELS                  
BRING GULF COAST LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA.               
IT MAY CLIP THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CAE CWA BUT THINK IT               
WILL REMAIN EVEN SOUTH OF THERE. RUC BRINGS LOW TOO FAR TO THE                  
NORTH. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO HOLD A BIT OF A WEDGE OVER THE                  
AREA AND TO GO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS                
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WILL HAVE 50 ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER TO TRY               
TO MATCH WITH CHS. CAE 88D SHOWING GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT              
INITIALLY ALOFT AS SOME DRY AIR AT 850 MB. AGREE WITH MODELS                    
MOISTENING UP ATMOSPHERE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE AREA.              
ALSO NAM SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE               
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WEDGE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH INTO                 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT WE SHOULDN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WINDS                 
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON.                 
ACTUALLY HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING BUT ONLY 10-15 KT.               
AFTER COLD FRONT TONIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY              
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
NO REAL CHANGES. UPPER FLOW STRAIGHTENS OUT TUESDAY. THEN UPPER                 
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH                 
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES APPROACH KEEPING A LOW              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.              
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE NE AND TRACK              
UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW                
SPRINKLES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) CURRENTLY. MODELS AND RADAR               
MOSAIC INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EAST INTO THE            
FA LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DECLINE                     
ACCORDINGLY. WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND SHIFTING IN DIRECTION DURING             
THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS BY. THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FA.            
APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NE. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENTS IN              
CIGS/VSBYS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN WIND              
SPEED.                                                                          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
TODAY...MIXING HGT 1600 FEET. TRANSPORT WINDS SOUTHEAST 17 MPH.                 
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADV FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 7 PM.                                
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1051 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT                 
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY                    
STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS ZONE FORECAST                  
WILL BE ISSUED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 321 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE SE USA              
TODAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON TONITE AND ON SUN...THEN INTO THE             
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN NITE. BEST FORCING/DYNAMIX WITH THIS SYS              
LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT            
THE FA ON MON...AS ANOTHER STORM SYS MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA. UPR TROF            
TO SWEEP ACRS THE FA TODAY.                                                     
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
00-03Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE MID TEENS-M20S TODAY WITH           
A LT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS           
TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS.                 
LOW-LVLS TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOSUNNY SKIES ACRS              
THE FA TODAY WITH NO PCPN.                                                      
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MUCH OF MON...WITH              
SOME WK WAA LATER ON MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE             
ACRS THE FA LATE ON MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT SRN VT LATE                
TONITE AND ERN VT ON SUN...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR AFFECTING MUCH OF             
THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT ON           
SUN AND MUCH OF THE FA EARLY ON SUN NITE AND AGAIN LATER ON MON. PW             
VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM                
PERIOD. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON DAY 2.                       
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NOTED ACRS THE FA IN THE LATEST IR            
SAT PIX. SOME ICE CRYSTALS NOTED AT KBTV RECENTLY. DRY WX EXPECTED              
ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF TONITE.                                                
PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE THE SE/ERN FA                
LATER TONITE AND INTO MUCH OF SUN. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM               
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT           
ON SUN. BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2"             
(WITH MAX AMTS ACRS SE VT) FROM 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON (THIS IS                   
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN LAST NITE/S GUIDANCE). WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF            
FACTOR...THIS MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF BLW 5" ACRS SE VT. SEE NO            
REASON TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES OR ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS ATTM FOR THIS             
REGION.                                                                         
NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN (OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME LK CHAMP LES ON SUN AND            
INTO SUN NITE?) LOOKS TO BE LATER ON MON...WHERE SCHC POPS FOR ANY              
-SHSN WILL BE RETAINED FOR NOW. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE            
NUMBERS TONITE AND ON SUN NITE.                                                 
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.                                           
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY                 
4 AM.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR              
ALL SITES THRU 06Z. LCL 2SM BR SCT001 AT KBTV DUE TO SMOG IN THE                
WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY OCNLY DRIFTING OVR RWY THRU 12Z. OTHERWISE SOME           
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY. WINDS                  
GENERALLY CALM/LGT VARIABLE. HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF           
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AFT 06Z SUN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WGH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
235 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FOCUS ON DMSHG SNOW SHOWER THREAT LATE                 
AFTN/EARLY EVE...FOLLOWED BY SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVG THRU WRN                 
GTLAKES SUN THRU MON.  LONG TERM FOCUS ON INCRG THREAT OF PRECIP ON             
WED/THU.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SHORE             
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...LEAVING BEHIND SNOWFALL            
AROUND ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS.  SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LAKE                
WINNEBAGO TRIGGERED HEAVIER -SHSN IN KOSH /1 INCH/ AREA BUT APPEARS             
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS EVIDENT BY WEAK UPR LEVEL Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND WEAK S/W AS DEPICTED BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS                
CONTRIBUTED TO FORCING WELL AWAY FM LK MI.  EXPC SCT -SNSH TO DMSH              
TO FLURRIES BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE AS WEAK FORCING SLIDES SWD.               
LAKE EFFECT HAS DMSHD ON SCHEDULE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON MORE               
NLY COMPONENT. WL MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO WX GRIDS PENDING RADAR            
TRENDS.  INCRG COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT WL COUNTER WEAK              
FORCING ASSOCD WITH NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN SRN CAN...HENCE WL CONT               
FLURRY MENTION FOR LATER TNGT INTO SUN.  THERMAL TROF AND LOW LEVEL             
RH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLDS IN OUTLOOK FOR TNGT INTO SUN.            
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPCD FOR A TIME LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT...HOWEVER               
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLDS WL BGN TO SPREAD BACK IN LTR SUN               
NGT INTO MON.  SHARP MID LEVEL TROF PASSES BY ON MON BUT LAYER RH               
REMAINS LIMITED.  SECONDARY WAVE ON TUE WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING             
NORTH OF AREA...HOWEVER INCRG SWLY WINDS SHOULD PULL WARMER AIR INTO            
SRN WI FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
SOME ENCOURAGEMENT IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE AS ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS                   
TRENDING TOWARD SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF               
GFS TRENDING TWD MORE AMPLIFIED TROF AND WETTER SOLUTION WITH SW                
FLOW ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF FM YESTERDAY. PATTERN CHANGE                
STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LONG WAVE TROF              
WEAKENING OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY             
TUE/WED TIMEFRAME.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
S/W TROF MOVG THRU UPR MIDWEST WED/THU.  SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD              
OF WAVE MAY STILL RESULT IN MIXTURE ON WED/WED NGT BFR COLD AIR                 
FUNNELS IN BY 12Z/THU.  REMOVED PRECIP FM TUE NGT AS FORCING REMAINS            
SOUTHWEST OF AREA UNTIL WED AND ADDED POPS FOR THU. GFS SHOWING                 
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDING WELL SOUTH OF AREA LATE IN WEEK WITH 85MB               
TEMPS -15 TO -20 WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN -30 DEPICTED BY              
06Z RUN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
930 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...PERSISTANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTING UP OVER LAKE                
MICHIGAN. POINT BEACH NUCLEAR PLANT ALREADY REPORTED 1.5 INCHES WITH            
MORE BANDS OFFSHORE. RUC40 INDICATES THESE BANDS WILL NOT DIE OFF UNTIL         
THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE             
ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE HOPES THAT 5 INCHES WILL BE         
THE MAX WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. DOOR COUNTY APPEARS SAFE AS THE BANDS           
HAVE SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                           
.SYNOPSIS...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE UPR FLOW PATTERN ACRS NOAM AND THE         
ERN PAC EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE FCST PERIOD. SHARP UPR RIDGE          
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST AND BUILD           
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WK. THAT WOULD ALLOW ERN NOAM TROF TO        
PULL WWD BY MID-WK...WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING        
OVER THE EAST COAST. THAT WOULD ALSO DRIVE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM         
SWD OVER THE WRN PLAINS.                                                        
THESE DEVELOPMENTS WL BE INITIATED BY VERY STG JET NOW HEADING EWD FM           
THE WRN PAC. THE JET IS FCST TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM W OF THE        
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHICH WOULD START THE RETROGRESSION BY FORCING THE           
WWD REBUILDING OF THE WRN NOAM RIDGE. GIVEN ALL THESE DEVELOPMENTS TRACE        
BACK TO JET OVER DATA SPARSE WRN PAC...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THINGS           
COULD CHG SIGNIFICANTLY IN LATER RUNS. AS A RESULT...HELD OFF ON MAKING         
MAJOR CHGS TO THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST.                                      
TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EARLY IN           
THE WORK WK. TEMPS BEYOND THAT WL DEPEND ON HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE ARCTIC         
AIR SURGES SEWD INTO THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD VERY LGT EARLY IN THE FCST           
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.         
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST...BUT LCN OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRACK        
OF SFC SYSTEM WL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE SIG PCPN FALLS OVER THE           
FCST AREA OR ELSEWHERE.                                                         
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/SUN. LAKE-EFFECT SITN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE          
ON THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS DIFFERED ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND         
FIELDS. RADAR SUPPORTED HAVING SCT SHSN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE           
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...JUST            
CARRIED THE SHSN ALL DAY. INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...AND THAT SHOULD          
BE A LIMITING FACTOR. MEANWHILE UP NORTH...NOTHING HAS HAPPENED YET. BUT        
FLOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME. THAT AREA COULD ALSO         
SEE AN INCR AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES LATER TDA. STUCK WITH SCT SHSN THERE         
ALSO.                                                                           
LOW-LEVEL WINDS FCST TO VARY BETWEEN N AND WNW TNGT AND SUN. CONFIDENCE         
IN MODEL FCST OF EXACT DIRECTION UNDER WK FLOW NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PUT          
TOO MUCH DETAIL INTO THE FCST. ESP SINCE DIFFERENT MODELS OFFERED               
DIFFERING IDEAS ABOUT WHEN FLOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. SO JUST CONTD          
CHC OF SHSN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                  
STUCK WITH PLENTY OF CLDS AND A CHC OF FLURRIES ACRS THE REST OF THE            
AREA. MAV GUID TEMPS SEEMED REASOANBLE.                                         
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CONT TO BE           
SML PCPN CHCS EARLY NXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HANDLING OF MAJOR PATN SHIFT         
AND WIDE RANGING MDL SOLNS LTR NXT WEEK.                                        
A RATHER BAGGY AND WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP SE TOWARD LK             
SUPERIOR SUNDAY NGT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR MSTR FOR THIS           
SYSTEM TO PLAY WITH THUS HAVE LEFT ONLY A SML CHC OF LGT SNOW SHWRS OR          
FLURRIES FOR FAR NRN WI. PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLDS AND RELATIVELY LGT         
WNDS THRU MOST OF THE NGT WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.        
THIS WEAK SYSTEM TRACKS E-SE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC          
ON MON DRAGGING A CDFNT THRU WI. ONCE AGAIN...WHAT DYNAMICS AND MSTR            
THAT ARE PRESENT FAVORS NRN WI SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MINIMAL PCPN CHCS          
THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED ONLY A WND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W-NW BEHIND         
THE FROPA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. WNDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-SW           
MON NGT AHD OF A CDFNT WHICH IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 12Z         
TUE. GFS APRS TOO QUICK ON DRIVING THE CDFNT (AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SFC        
LOW) TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST AND PREFER THE SLOWER NAM/CANADIAN. MORE            
CLDS AND THE START OF WAA WL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD THAN PREV NGTS. HAVE          
RAISED MINS SEVERAL DEGS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THE MEX GUID.              
THIS NXT CLIPPER LOW MOVS E-SE TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS ON A        
SIMILAR PATH OF ITS PREDECESSOR. THIS KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR          
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS OVR SRN SECTIONS OF        
THE CWA TO ONLY SLGT CATEGORY. TRAILING CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE WRN GREAT         
LKS RGN TUE BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY AS MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NW DIR TO        
MORE OF A W-SE DIR. THE BIG QSTN FOR TUE NGT INTO WED IS WHERE THE FNTL         
BNDRY TO BE LOCATED FOR ANY KIND OF OVERRUNNING EVENT. GENERAL CONSENSUS        
IS THAT THE BNDRY TO STRETCH FROM SW TO E-CNTRL WI AT 12Z WED AND THEN          
SLOWLY SAG SE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED. INCRG GULF MSTR BEING SENT         
NORTH BY A 50 KT LOW LVL JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENUF OF A PCPN RISK TO KEEP         
POPS IN THE FCST. 8H TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST COLD ENUF TO KEEP            
PCPN AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA.                                          
FCST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK IS COMPLETELY UP IN THE AIR           
ATTM AS TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT SOLNS ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS.        
ONE CAMP TILTS THE ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG INTO THE NW TERRITORY OF CANADA          
AND DISPLACES A LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. IN          
ADDITION...A SFC LOW WOULD RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED FNTL BNDRY ON THU          
AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE WRN GREAT            
LKS. THE OTHER CAMP MAINTAINS THAT THE UPR RDG TO REMAIN POINTED TOWARD         
THE GULF OF AK WITH A POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL              
CANADA SWWD TO CA. THIS RESULTS IN A MOIST W-SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC             
WAVES MOVG ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED MUCH FARTHER             
SOUTH (OHIO RVR VALLEY/ERN GREAT LKS). DUE TO THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY             
INVOLVED...HAVE KEPT THE GIST OF THE PREV FCST INTACT WHICH FAVORS THE          
LATTER MDL SOLN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON                             
WIZ040-050-                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
256 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
...FIRST TRUE ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON...                                  
.SHORT TERM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INFILTRATED THE ENTIRE                  
FORECAST AREA AND MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL                  
FLORIDA. RUC 40 INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED                 
THROUGH...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA              
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND IT WILL TAKE THE PASSAGE OF               
THESE TO BRING THE REALLY COLD AIR IN. NONETHELESS...850 TEMPS HAVE             
DROPPED INTO THE -6 C RANGE OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AT THIS HOUR               
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S.                       
REALLY CAN'T SEE MUCH OF A WARMUP TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR               
ADVECTION PATTERN WE WILL BE SEEING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.                 
HAVE GONE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF                
THE AREA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING             
AT FURTHER GUIDANCE...AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A LAKE WIND                 
ADVISORY AS OPPORTUNITY TO MIX MAXIMUM WINDS DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED           
AND THINK WE CAN HANDLE WINDS WITH 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                 
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A                
HARD FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING AND TO A GREATER                  
EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING. FIRST 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MID                
MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRESH ON ITS HEELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL              
COMPLICATE THE FREEZE PICTURE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND               
CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE GEORGIA ZONES AND POSSIBLY AN                 
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. MAV HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW FOR MINS THIS                 
WINTER SEASON BUT ESPECIALLY FOR ADVECTIVE EVENTS. THROW IN SOME                
CLOUDS AND FEEL THE NEED TO ADD 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO MAV PROJECTIONS               
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET. THIS STILL WARRANTS A FREEZE                
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PORTION ALTHOUGH FLAGLER IS A                    
LITTLE MORE ON THE FENCE. FOR GEORGIA...WE HAVE ENDED FREEZE                    
WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT HARD FREEZE EVENTS. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A                 
WATCH FOR GEORGIA AND A WARNING FOR FLORIDA...SO WENT AHEAD WITH A              
"HARD" FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF GEORGIA. IN                      
ADDITION...NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER WIND CHILLS                   
LATE TONIGHT WILL MEET CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY.                                
AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD                     
FREEZE ON TUESDAY...DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE COLDEST 850 TEMPS.                
THERE STILL WON'T BE THAT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON MONDAY              
WITH AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AND WITH HIGH MIGRATING QUICKLY              
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SHORTLY                  
AFTER SUNSET. GRIDDED VALUES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF 10 HOURS               
OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER SOME AREAS WITH MINS IN THE                 
MID 20S. MAV CONTINUES TO BE COLDER WITH SOME TEENS READINGS BUT                
UNTIL IT HITS ONE THIS SEASON WILL NOT GO WITH IT. WILL GO WITH A               
FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND MOST OF GEORGIA...TO BE LIKELY              
UPGRADED WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.                                                
.LONG TERM...OUR FORAY INTO WINTER IS A BRIEF ONE AS FLOW QUICKLY               
BECOMES ZONAL AND A RAPID WARMUP IS IN STORE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS                
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS MAX TEMPS BACK              
INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY                 
SOUTH INTO MONTANA BUT ZONAL FLOW KEEPS THE COLDEST OF THE AIR                  
NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...ROUGH CONDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH 41012 PROBABLY                  
REPORTING THE PEAK CONDS FOR THIS COLD OUTBREAK WITH WINDS W27G35-              
40KT AND SEAS AT 10 FT. IT WAS NOTED THAT ELEVATED WIND INSTRUMENTS             
AT R8 TOWER JUST N OF MARINE AREA RECENTLY INDICATED GUSTS TO 44 KT             
AND SEAS WERE 10 FT. GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS            
MORNING AND WILL BASICALLY BE REPLACED BY NEXT SHIFT WITH A SCA AS              
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR NEARSHORE WATERS                 
THROUGH AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG ADVECTION PATTERN. WINDS AND SEAS               
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND MON AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR N               
LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRES MOVES              
OUT BY MID WEEK WITH E TO SE FLOW EXPECTED REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD.            
DUE TO ESE WIND FETCH...WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO PREDICT AN SE SWELL             
BY WEEKS END.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR FL ZONES LOOKS GOOD FOR                
TODAY AS WINDS AND LOW RH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MEET CRITERIA. LOW                  
CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOK LIKE THOUGH WOULD MAINLY              
IMPACT JUST GA ZONES. ON MONDAY...LOWER RH EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY            
DIP INTO THE MID TEENS IN A FEW AREAS BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY            
COLD AIRMASS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FIRE WX WATCH FOR MON               
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW. OUR GA ZONES LOOK TO ESCAPE RED FLAG             
CONDS BOTH TODAY AND MON.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  49  29  48  28 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SSI  49  28  50  27 /   0   0   0   0                                           
JAX  49  28  50  27 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  49  28  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GNV  51  27  52  24 /   0   0   0   0                                           
OCF  51  29  53  25 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...                      
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...                       
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.                
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE                     
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...                      
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...                       
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.                
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE                
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...                      
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...                       
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE                     
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...                      
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...                       
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.                
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE                     
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ATKINSON...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE...                  
     ECHOLS...JEFF DAVIS...AND WARE.                                            
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE                     
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ATKINSON...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CLINCH...                
     COASTAL CAMDEN...COASTAL GLYNN...ECHOLS...INLAND CAMDEN...                 
     INLAND GLYNN...PIERCE...WARE...AND WAYNE.                                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                    
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                    
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60                          
     NM OFFSHORE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...DEESE                                                                  
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
310 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZFP/GRIDS...                                            
LAKE SNOW DRIFTING TO EAST AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS WINDS ALOFT              
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. VAD WINDS SHOW CHANGE IS SLIGHT SINCE                
MIDNIGHT BUT SUFFICIENT TO MOVE MAIN PLUME FROM JUST OFF CHICAGO                
SHORE TO PORTER-LAPORTE BORDER IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONLY SCATTERED             
FLURRIES REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM.                                 
THOUGH MAIN H5 TROUGH HAS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ONE MORE SIG SHORT               
WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD BE SEEN IN SURFACE DATA AS SECONDARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.               
WITH COLUMN STILL MOIST AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE, CHANCE FOR                
WRINGING OUT ADDITIONAL SHOT OF FLURRIES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY.                                                                            
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PAC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING            
WITH EFFECT OF BACKING UPPER FLOW TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST              
BY TUESDAY. WAA SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS             
CLIMBING AOA 40. AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP            
ON SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.                
SURFACE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND ADD UVV AND CONVERGENCE NECESSARY            
TO INITIATE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY. H8 TEMPS ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE              
RAIN WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STRONG CAA                  
FOLLOWING ON HEALS OF SURFACE LOW PASSAGE WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP                
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.                                         
AFTER MILD TEMPS EARLY TO MID-WEEK, MAX WILL DROP TO ONLY 20S BY END            
OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY LOOK PUTS MINS IN UPPER SINGLE              
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. THIS TIME AROUND WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHWEST              
SO CHANCES FOR LAKE SNOW IN NORTHEAST IL DIMINISHED.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS...                                            
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAST                         
AREA...THOUGH RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP                 
LAPSE RATES THROUGH DEEP LAYER UP TO 700 HPA. WEAK WATER VAPOR                  
SIGNATURE OF SHEARED VORT MAX ALONG BACK SIDE OF LARGER SCALE MID               
LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH RUC PICKS UP ON. 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP OF LAST             
HOUR OR SO SHOWING NEW INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST                 
IL...ALBEIT MUCH LESS INTENSE AND CELLULAR THAN THOSE OF EARLIER                
THIS EVENING. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN OVERNIGHT WITH            
A TEMPO MVFR VIS/CIG FOR LGT SNOW. WILL CARRY THIS TEMPO FIRST FEW              
HOURS..THEN EXPECT DIMINISHING BEFORE DAYBREAK.                                 
ANALYSIS OF 00Z RAOB AND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS BRIEF SHORT WAVE                
RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT VORT DIGS SOUTH INTO TROUGH            
FROM UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE ALREADY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR LGT             
SNOW VIS/CIG CONDITIONS ERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH LAPSE RATES                   
REMAINING RATHER STEEP THROUGH 850 HPA SUNDAY...WILL CARRY A PROB               
GROUP FOR SOME MVFR LGT SNOW LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE                
RISING HEIGHTS AND DRYING OF LOWER/MID LEVELS SHOULD END PRECIP                 
THREAT FROM NW-SE DURG AFTN...WITH SOME SCT/CLRG DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT.            
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW IN 310-320 DEG RANGE AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT               
AND SUNDAY. SPEED GNRLY 8-12 KTS.                                               
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                     
AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE                     
DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS               
SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.                       
OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND                    
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT                
SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A                
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL.                                     
AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES               
VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRENT OF               
THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE              
STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL                    
DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING                 
FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS                       
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE                
BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON               
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A               
NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS                
BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR                    
SOUTH AND EAST.                                                                 
FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN                   
PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH                  
SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN                  
THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE                        
COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS              
REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY                    
SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE                  
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT                    
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD                          
WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES.           
OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM                   
COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES.                        
EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH                  
TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5                     
FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH                
LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND                          
EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST              
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND                
WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA               
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE                 
AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING       
RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW                
FOR SATURDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN              
DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH                         
BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH              
ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE                    
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM                  
FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                    
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM               
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9               
     PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 FROM 7 AM                   
     SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.                                                     
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9              
     PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT EVENT TONIGHT/MON ON            
THE KEWEENAW...A MORE GENERAL -SN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING ON                
TUE...AND THEN SNOW MIDWEEK AHEAD OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE              
WEEK.                                                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE W            
COAST AND A DEEP TROF DOMINATING THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. A WEAK                 
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING S ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI.                   
ALTHOUGH TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM FLIGHT INTO KSAW LAST EVENING WAS VERY            
FAVORABLE FOR LES WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND -14C AND A MOIST PROFILE TO            
700MB...LES HAS NOT REACHED THE POTENTIAL SUGGESTED BY THE PROFILE              
OVERNIGHT. PART OF THE ISSUE IS PROBABLY LIGHT WINDS WHICH ARE                  
PREVENTING ANY KIND OF ORGANIZATION (KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS                
WINDS AROUND 10KT THRU 7KFT MSL). NONETHELESS...CERTAINLY EXPECTED              
TO SEE MORE LES THAN HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. SEEMS TO BE A                
RECURRING THEME THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH LES NEVER DEVELOPING AS MUCH AS            
I EXPECTED. TO THE N...00Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY HOSTILE                  
ENVIRONMENT FOR LES WITH DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 900MB TO 600MB (DWPT               
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 30C). 00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS NOT AS DRY...BUT               
PROFILE STILL DOES NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LES (WELL               
MIXED LAYER BLO SHARP INVERSION AT 875MB WITH VERY DRY ABOVE).                  
WITH NEGLIGIBLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TODAY...EXPECT A PURE LES REGIME.              
KEY ASPECTS REGULATING LES WILL BE LOW INVERSION AND DRY AIRMASS                
(PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS) WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREADING LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK AND FLURRIES IS STILL BACK OVER            
NE MN AND JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...IT SHOULD BE AFTN BEFORE               
THE IMPACT OF DRYING BEGINS TO AFFECT LES SIGNIFICANTLY. UNTIL                  
THEN...THE MORNING HRS OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT                     
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS FOR              
THE DAY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THAT            
FALLING DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO A NW DIRECTION DURING            
THE AFTN...SHIFTING LES TO MAINLY THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS.                        
TONIGHT/MON...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE KEWEENAW FOR A POTENTIAL LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT EPISODE WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AS WINDS BACK TO THE             
W WHILE 850MB TEMPS LINGER IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. MOISTURE                   
PROFILE WILL BE CRITICAL...AND THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM NEVER LINKS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED              
WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (A WEDGE OF DWPT                       
DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C LINGERS AROUND 850MB). THE GFS MOISTENS THE               
ENTIRE COLUMN. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS             
RUNS SO THERE IS NO TREND TO TIP THE BALANCE TOWARD ONE OF THE                  
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE            
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLIPPING THRU THE WRN              
RIDGE. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND UKMET SUPPORT THE STRONGER GFS                 
SOLUTION WITH SHORTWAVE AS IT DIVES SE THRU MN MON MORNING. THESE               
MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE INDICATED BY THE             
GFS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE               
MOISTENING PROFILE INDICATED BY THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH            
DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA (AGAIN               
NOTE THE 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS). ASSUMING MOISTURE DEEPENS...THE              
FOCUS WILL BE PROVIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS SHOWS THE                  
CLASSIC SIGNAL FOR STRONG CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WRN LAKE INTO THE              
KEWEENAW AS WINDS BACK SW TOWARD THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHILE WINDS                
REMAIN MORE NW TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. NAM HAS A SIMILAR PATTERN...BUT              
IT BACKS WINDS TO THE SW OVER MORE OF THE WRN LAKE...POSSIBLY                   
SHIFTING CONVERGENCE ZONE N OF THE KEWEENAW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON             
DURING PERIOD OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK LIFT. RUC13 IS             
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE BACKING TO THE SW. SINCE THERE IS LOW             
CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILE...UNCERTAINTY ON LOW-LEVEL              
WIND FLOW AND MARGINALLY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR PURE LES IN THE EVENT             
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS MINIMAL OR NONEXISTENT (BEST FORCING DOES PASS              
SW OF FCST AREA)...WILL NOT CHANGE WATCH HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST               
ISSUANCE. ALSO...IT IS NOT CRITICAL TO GO ADVY OR WARNING YET SINCE             
THIS IS REALLY A LATE SECOND PERIOD INTO THIRD PERIOD EVENT. FEELING            
ATTM IS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A WARNING EVENT...BUT IT COULD EASILY             
BECOME ONE IF MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEP...CONVERGENCE SETS UP RIGHT              
AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST             
AREA...BACKING WINDS WILL SHIFT LES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT                   
PERHAPS E OF MUNISING. SOME -SN/FLURRIES MAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE             
AREA MON MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING SW OF UPPER              
MI.                                                                             
LES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF ALL OF UPPER MI MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK              
SW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. SPEAKING OF WHICH...PER                             
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO              
PASS ACROSS OR JUST N OF UPPER MI TUE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW                   
TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD              
OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS             
UPPER MI LATE MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE N AND E FCST AREA UNDER LIFT               
THE LONGEST. GFS 285K SFC (AROUND 750MB) SHOWS MIXING RATIOS OF                 
2G/KG AVAILABLE WITH 6 TO MAYBE 9HRS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO 2 OR 3            
INCHES OF SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N AND E WHERE LIFT IS                
LONGEST DURATION (MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS THE SCNTRL).                             
WED/THU...MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO A SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME                  
FRAME...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS NOT AS WIDE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.               
THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT TOWARD A SFC WAVE LIFTING THRU THE GREAT             
LAKES...BUT TIMING IS QUITE VARIED RANGING FROM THE FAST CANADIAN               
(SFC LOW LIFTING NE THRU LWR MI WED NIGHT) TO THE SLOWER                        
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET (SFC LOW LIFTING THRU LWR MI THU NIGHT). THE LATTER             
SOLUTION IS FAVORED. IT WOULD APPEAR HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS WAVE               
WILL PASS SE OF FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMETHING TO             
WATCH GIVEN THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN RECENT DAYS. ARCTIC AIRMASS               
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK               
AND THE WEEKEND (850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -25C...THOUGH                   
OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH SUCCESSIVE                  
RUNS).                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU MON EVENING MIZ001-003.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
423 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SRN NEW ENG TODAY...             
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE. SFC/UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN              
ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. STORM SYS            
TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA ON TUE.                                                 
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE TEENS-L20S TODAY WITH               
N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M20S TODAY.             
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET           
OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT VT TODAY. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE             
FA TODAY WITH T-4" OF SN ACRS VT.                                               
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON...WITH WAA                     
DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR                   
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON MON AND LATE ON TUE.               
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. LOW-LVL             
LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR            
TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT TODAY AND MUCH OF THE FA TONITE THRU TUE. PW               
VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TODAY THRU MON NITE...THEN               
AROUND 0.25" ON TUE. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON EACH            
DAY THRU DAY 3.                                                                 
88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MAKING PROGRESS ACRS REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF              
THE FA ATTM. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THIS PCPN WILL BE RUNNING INTO SOME           
LOW-LVL DRY AIR FIRST BEFORE IT STARTS TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE            
FA. PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM STILL EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE MUCH OF            
THE SE/ERN FA TODAY. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM LIKELY ACRS MUCH            
OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT TODAY. BLEND OF            
THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2" (WITH MAX AMTS               
ACRS SE VT) THRU 00Z TONITE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF FACTOR...THIS           
MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF 3-5" ACRS SE VT...WHERE THE GOING SN               
ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED.                                                      
LATEST NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS SOME LK CHAMP LES POSSIBLE BY LATER TODAY            
AND INTO TONITE AS THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE N-NW. ALSO...SOME LK               
FLOW OFF LK ONT POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN FA ON MON NITE/TUE.           
THE NEXT FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS LOOK TO JUST GIVE MUCH OF THE FA A SCHC             
AT SEEING SOME -SHSN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS              
TONITE.                                                                         
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH            
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                                                          
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK S AND E OF THE NEW ENGLAND              
COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT OCNL LOWERING TO            
MVFR AT KMPV AFT 16Z DUE TO VISIBILITY IN -SN. AFT 20Z CIGS LOWERING            
TO BKN025 AT KMPV WITH 3SM -SN. THATS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS PRECIP              
WILL GET BUT KBTV KEPT A PROB30 FOR FLURRIES 22-02Z. SURFACE WINDS              
WILL BACK FROM E TO N AND INCREASE AFT 20Z WITH SOME G20KTS AT KBTV             
AND KMPV.                                                                       
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VTZ012 THROUGH 9 PM TODAY.                               
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY                                          
AVIATION...SISSON                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1045 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FLORIDA...                   
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...                                    
MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM NW TO SE AS DRY AIR             
WORKS IN ALOFT BUT WE REMAIN IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET                
WITH DIV ALOFT SO IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. IN ADDITION...LOWER                
BASED GULF MARINE STRATOCU IS ADVECTING ONSHORE THE FL WEST COAST.              
QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL REACH. NW SFC WINDS THIS MORNING             
WILL BACK TO THE W/NW WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS               
INTO OUR FA...FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD.                                           
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WHICH IS CONTINUING TO                   
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OF 20G25 MPH. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE                   
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND                
COAST MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH IT                
WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. BUT IT'S A LOT COLDER THAN                   
YESTERDAY...AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE              
IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT.              
SOME AREAS IN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S TODAY            
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE THERE. LOW TO MID 50S IS AS GOOD AS IT GETS               
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
**NOTE: TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING WELL AFTER                  
SUNRISE. SO THE RTP (WHICH RUNS THRU 7 AM) DID NOT CAPTURE THEM.                
HOWEVER...THE TRUE LOWS FOR THE DAY WON'T BE REACHED UNTIL MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TONIGHT...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS OF THE SEASON ADVECTING INTO THE                 
AREA...WITH THE -5 ISOTHERM CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.               
MAV MOS SHOWING FREEZING TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN                  
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE IN             
SOME PAST ADVECTION EVENTS...BUT THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST            
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS SEASON...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE            
AT LEAST COLD POCKET FREEZING TEMPS IN ALL COUNTIES.  THERE ARE SOME            
POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTORS THOUGH AS MODEL SHOWS THAT THERE MIGHT              
BE SOME STRATOCU PUSHING INLAND FROM THE GULF AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE            
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.                  
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING THROUGH THE LOWEST 4-5K FT             
WILL TRANSPORT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL BE                   
BUMPING GUSTS FROM 40 KT DOWN TO 30 KT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.                 
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS              
SHOW 850-925 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND                    
DECREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY EVENING...SO EXPECT SOME 25-30 MPH             
GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS SPREADING                
FARTHER SOUTH THAN OUR CURRENT RED FLAG. WILL LIKELY EXTEND IT AT               
LEAST INTO OSCEOLA/SOUTH BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER. BUT WINDS ARE BACKING            
TO THE W/NW AND GULF MARINE STRATOCU IS HEADING TOWARDS OUT                     
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOTICE THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN LOWER              
THAN GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING ALONG THE COAST (MLB SOUTH). COULD SEE             
DEWPOINTS RISE SOME THERE BUT TURBULENT MIXING MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF              
CLOUDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.                        
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60NM.                 
  LAKE WIND ADVISORY 10 AM-6 PM TODAY ALL COUNTIES.                             
  RED FLAG WARNING LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND                       
  NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
  FREEZE WARNING ALL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.            
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.                         
  FREEZE WATCH ALL COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KELLY/HIRSCH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
910 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
WILL CONTINUE ALL HEADLINES. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO FRESHEN                
UP THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...THAT IS...TO REMOVE TREND TERMS SUCH                
AS BECOMING AND DEVELOPING WHERE APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE LATEST                
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING IS AT 1039 AM WHEN SOME SPLASHOVER AND                   
MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR. WILL DROP THE MENTION OF THIS IN                 
THE ZONE FORECASTS. A STATEMENT CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THIS                    
THROUGH NOON TIME.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LOW INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS OR INSTRUMENT                  
FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY THEN SLOWLY              
IMPROVING TONIGHT AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. BLOWING AND              
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON AIRPORT                       
OPERATIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TAF                 
SITES AND AUG.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG GALE WARNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO                
STORM FORCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 810 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006)                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE                       
SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING...TO ADD HIGHER GUSTS TO THE                 
FORECAST TODAY AND TO INCREASE SEAS A BIT TODAY BASED ON THE                    
LATEST BUOY REPORTS. CONTINUING THE STRONG GALE WARNING.                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                      
AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE                     
DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS               
SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.                       
OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND                    
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT                
SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A                
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL.                                     
AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES               
VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF               
THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE              
STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL                    
DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING                 
FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS                       
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE                
BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON               
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A               
NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS                
BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR                    
SOUTH AND EAST.                                                                 
FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN                   
PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH                  
SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN                  
THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE                        
COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS              
REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY                    
SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE                  
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT                    
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD                          
WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES.           
OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM                   
COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES.                        
EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH                  
TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5                     
FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH                
LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND                          
EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.                                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST              
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND                
WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA               
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE                 
AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING       
RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW                
FOR SATURDAY.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN              
DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH                         
BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH              
ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE                    
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM                 
FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                    
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                     
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                  
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 UNTIL 9 PM                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
810 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE                       
SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING...TO ADD HIGHER GUSTS TO THE                 
FORECAST TODAY AND TO INCREASE SEAS A BIT TODAY BASED ON THE                    
LATEST BUOY REPORTS. CONTINUING THE STRONG GALE WARNING.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                      
AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE                     
DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS               
SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.                       
OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND                    
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT                
SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A                
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL.                                     
AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES               
VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRENT OF               
THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE              
STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL                    
DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING                 
FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS                       
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE                
BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON               
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A               
NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS                
BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR                    
SOUTH AND EAST.                                                                 
FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN                   
PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH                  
SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN                  
THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE                        
COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS              
REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY                    
SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE                  
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT                    
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD                          
WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES.           
OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM                   
COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES.                        
EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH                  
TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5                     
FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH                
LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND                          
EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.                                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST              
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND                
WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA               
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE                 
AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING       
RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW                
FOR SATURDAY.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN              
DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH                         
BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH              
ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE                    
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM                  
FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                    
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                     
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                  
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 UNTIL 9 PM                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
936 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
...TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED THIS MORNING ALONG AND SE OF MHT-CEF TO               
I95 WITH COMBO COLD...POOR VSBY IN WIND BLOWN DRIFTING AND FALLING              
SNOW...                                                                         
.UPDATE...                                                                      
M3...VERY SHORTLY ADDING MVY TO THE CFW AND REISSUING STMT AS SOON              
AS FINISH THIS STMT.                                                            
SERIOUS MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ACK AND MVY ON UP TO             
OUTER CAPE COD THIS MORNING. PLS REF THE 924 AM STMT WITH REPORTS 2             
HRS BEFORE HIGH TIDE WITH ROAD CLOSURES DOCKS UNDER WATER. 19 FT SEAS           
AT 44018!  ROAD CLOSURES TO BOSTON AND THE S SHORE WILL DEVELOP                 
SHORTLY. LAST NOS TIDE DATA IS IN THE STMTS...BOTH NOWCAST AND CFW.             
930 AM DOWNTOWN BOSTON WITH 6 INCHES PER NWS EMPLOYEE THE JACKPOT               
OVER 18" IN HARTFORD CTY.  PNS BEING UPDATED AS FAST WE CAN                     
ENTER AND DELIVER.                                                              
BLIZ CONDS: HAVE BRIEFLY OCCURRED AT ORH AND BVY 8A-9A TIME FRAME               
BUT NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH YET TO CALL IT A BLIZ HERE.                           
NEW BANDS FORMING BOSTON AREA INTO SW SUBURBS AND ALONG THE S COAST             
OF NEW ENGLAND FROM CT TO WST TO CAPE COD.                                      
DRAG 936 AM                                                                     
M2...TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED THIS MORNING IN N CT...PLUS MUCH OF                 
CENTRAL/E MASS CEF TO FIT EWD TO THE COAST AND NH VCNTY I93 AS WELL             
AS RI.                                                                          
CHILLING IN MUCH OF MASS AS FLOW TURNS NNE...TEMPS DOWN 3-6 DEGS PAST           
SVRL HRS MERRIMACK VALLEY TO CEF.  INTERIOR SNE DRIFTING TO AT LEAST            
2 FEET EXPECTED WHERE 8 INCH AMTS... AND WHERE AMTS EXCEED A FOOT...            
DRIFTS TO 3 FEET.  THAT TYPE OF DRIFTING WILL DEVELOP I 95 ONCE AMTS            
REACH THOSE VALUES AND TEMPS START THE PLUMMET WHICH SHOULD BEGIN BOS           
TO PVD BETWEEN 9A-11A.                                                          
06Z GFS EXCT ON 850-500 FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSTD BANDING WHICH IS                
MODELED TO MOVE NEWD NOT SEWD! THAT WOULD PLACE MAX LOW WATER                   
EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL NR HFD-ORH-BVY-ASH CORRIDOR (LOTS OF DRIFTING).             
ANOTHER BAND MAY FORM CLOSER TO CAPE COD LATER THIS MORNING ACROISS             
SE MASS AND SRN RI BUT NOT EASILY SEEN IN GFS FRONTOGENSIS TOOL.                
DRAG/NOCERA  811 AM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOW CENTER NOW VERY PRONOUNCED ON COMPOSITE RADAR            
LOOP SLIDING E/NE WITH LARGE PRES FALL AREA ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.           
10Z RUC ANALYSIS HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND             
CURRENT AXIS OF S+ STRETCHING FROM E PA THRU HFD UP TO BVY.  ALSO               
NOTING ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENING AND LARGE EXPANSION OF HVY                 
PRECIP NOW EXPANDING OVER THE WATERS E OF ACY LIFTING NNE.                      
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS NOW OF WIND GUSTS JUST S OF CAPE AND AT MVY            
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE                  
MORNING GOES ALONG.  ALSO...ACROSS SE MA ATM AMATEUR RADIO AND                  
INCOMING NWS FCSTR SEEING SOME SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN THE WEAK                 
REFLECTIVITY REGIONS - LIKELY WHERE UVV/SATURATION IS AT ABOUT                  
-7/-8C PER XSECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND SITES GO BACK TO             
S/S+.                                                                           
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AXIS OF 1/2-1/4SM SNOWS               
ON THE LGA-BVY LINE 30-50 MI EITHER SIDE WHILE CSI BANDS OF S/S+                
LIFT N FROM THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO SE CT/RI AND SE MA.  RUC AND             
6Z NAM SUGGEST A SLOW ESE MVMT OF AXIS OF HVY SNOW AS IT MERGES WITH            
THE EXPANDING REGION NNW OF THE LOW CENTER BTWN 12-18Z.  TSTMS                  
REPORTED VCNTY NYC AND BELIEVE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A CHC OF            
TSTM ENHANCED HVY SNOW AS STRONG PVA AND INFLOW GETS MAXED OUT                  
BENEATH DEFORMATION AXIS TODAY.  ALSO SEEING VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO               
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE NW ZONES PER FCST.                                     
FCST ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION               
AND LOCALIZED 15+ AMOUNTS WHERE TSTM ENHANCED SNOWS OCCUR.                      
DRV                                                                             
PER 530 AM UPDATE...                                                            
GOOD NEWS FOR SPOTTERS...WE HAVE FOUND A WAY TO GET AROUND THE                  
TECHNICAL PROBLEM WITH ONLINE SPOTTER REPORTS. PLEASE GO DIRECTLY TO            
THE SPOTTER REPORT FORM BY TYPING THE FOLLOWING INTO THE ADDRESS BAR            
OF YOUR BROWSER IN LOWERCASE:                                                   
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/SPOTTERREPORTFORM.HTML                                       
YOU WILL THEN BE ABLE TO ENTER YOUR REPORTS ONLINE. ALL REPORTS OF              
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND DAMAGE OF MEASURED WIND SPEEDS            
GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE APPRECIATED.                                        
THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.                                                       
MB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/ISSUED 457 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE BOTH            
MODELS ARE CLOSE...AND SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS              
FIELDS.  MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL             
TIME OF THE SNOW SLIGHTLY...AND TO LOWER AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS                  
SLIGHTLY BY AND INCH OR SO IN SOME SPOTS.  BANDED NATURE TO                     
PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LEAD TO                
WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.                                                  
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT 4 AM...AND IS                   
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.              
THUS EXPECTING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM TO BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM            
TODAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH               
POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE                
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT.  HAVE LEFT WARNINGS INTACT.                
SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THINKING              
IS WE HAVE ANOTHER 7 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE...SO SEAS WILL HAVE                 
ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD AND CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF                 
MA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON.  HAVE               
POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.                                                 
FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.                        
ONCE STORM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN           
NEW ENGLAND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                    
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
KEPT FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE LONGER TERM.                                
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH                    
AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SHIFTING            
POLAR VORTEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL YIELD A BROAD SW              
FLOW OVER THE NE. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABV NORMAL AWAY           
FROM THE COAST WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU. THEREAFTER...SLOW MOVING              
FNT ACRS NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR              
REGION FRI AND SAT.                                                             
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT...AS GFS AND             
CMC GLOBAL HAVE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE NE             
FRI-SAT...WHICH WOULD PUSH FNT OFSHR. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND UKMET                 
INDICATE WEAKER AND BROADER SW FLOW ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE               
SFC FNT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO FNT GETTING HUNG-UP NEAR NEW                   
ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT.              
GIVEN THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM CLIMO FRI AND              
SAT...AND LEAN TWD WARM TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED AND THU.  FOR MON AND            
BEYOND...WEST WINDS 20-25 KT MON/MON NGT...BECOMING SW TUE AND WED.             
SW WNDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NGT.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING TO IFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN             
NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO               
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS INTO               
OUR REGION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY              
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WITH 40-50KT AS FAR                  
INLAND AS KPVD...KORH AND KBOS.                                                 
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS             
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. EXPECT AN INITIAL JUMP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE             
MANY TERMINALS IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR OVERNIGHT.                                
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RI AIRPORTS THROUGH 1 PM. WE              
EXPECT TO ISSUE THE SAME FOR KBOS/LOGAN A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING.            
MARINE...                                                                       
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS                     
SITUATION FOR ANY MARINERS OUT THERE AS STORM PEAKS LATER THIS                  
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...50-60KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL            
WATERS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AND WE STILL THINK                   
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 20 PERCENT TOO LOW...A TYPICAL              
BIAS...SO WE BUMPED UP SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT ON OUR OUTER WATERS,                
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.              
SPOTTERS...                                                                     
DUE TO A TECHNICAL PROBLEM ON OUR WEBSITE...THE ONLINE SPOTTER                  
FEATURE IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME.  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO             
CALL IN YOUR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER             
SERVICE.  WE ARE SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CTZ003-004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                         
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                           
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>011-026 UNTIL 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MAZ007-012>024 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                     
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024 FROM 9 AM             
     SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.                                                     
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                   
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                         
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                    
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
615 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOW CENTER NOW VERY PRONOUNCED ON COMPOSITE RADAR            
LOOP SLIDING E/NE WITH LARGE PRES FALL AREA ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.           
10Z RUC ANALYSIS HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND             
CURRENT AXIS OF S+ STRETCHING FROM E PA THRU HFD UP TO BVY.  ALSO               
NOTING ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENING AND LARGE EXPANSION OF HVY                 
PRECIP NOW EXPANDING OVER THE WATERS E OF ACY LIFTING NNE.                      
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS NOW OF WIND GUSTS JUST S OF CAPE AND AT MVY            
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE                  
MORNING GOES ALONG.  ALSO...ACROSS SE MA ATM AMATEUR RADIO AND                  
INCOMING NWS FCSTR SEEING SOME SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN THE WEAK                 
REFLECTIVITY REGIONS - LIKELY WHERE UVV/SATURATION IS AT ABOUT                  
-7/-8C PER XSECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND SITES GO BACK TO             
S/S+.                                                                           
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AXIS OF 1/2-1/4SM SNOWS               
ON THE LGA-BVY LINE 30-50 MI EITHER SIDE WHILE CSI BANDS OF S/S+                
LIFT N FROM THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO SE CT/RI AND SE MA.  RUC AND             
6Z NAM SUGGEST A SLOW ESE MVMT OF AXIS OF HVY SNOW AS IT MERGES WITH            
THE EXPANDING REGION NNW OF THE LOW CENTER BTWN 12-18Z.  TSTMS                  
REPORTED VCNTY NYC AND BELIEVE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A CHC OF            
TSTM ENHANCED HVY SNOW AS STRONG PVA AND INFLOW GETS MAXED OUT                  
BENEATH DEFORMATION AXIS TODAY.  ALSO SEEING VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO               
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE NW ZONES PER FCST.                                     
FCST ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION               
AND LOCALIZED 15+ AMOUNTS WHERE TSTM ENHANCED SNOWS OCCUR.                      
DRV                                                                             
PER 530 AM UPDATE...                                                            
GOOD NEWS FOR SPOTTERS...WE HAVE FOUND A WAY TO GET AROUND THE                  
TECHNICAL PROBLEM WITH ONLINE SPOTTER REPORTS. PLEASE GO DIRECTLY TO            
THE SPOTTER REPORT FORM BY TYPING THE FOLLOWING INTO THE ADDRESS BAR            
OF YOUR BROWSER IN LOWERCASE:                                                   
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/SPOTTERREPORTFORM.HTML                                       
YOU WILL THEN BE ABLE TO ENTER YOUR REPORTS ONLINE. ALL REPORTS OF              
SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND DAMAGE OF MEASURED WIND SPEEDS            
GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE APPRECIATED.                                        
THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.                                                       
MB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/ISSUED 457 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE BOTH            
MODELS ARE CLOSE...AND SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS              
FIELDS.  MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL             
TIME OF THE SNOW SLIGHTLY...AND TO LOWER AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS                  
SLIGHTLY BY AND INCH OR SO IN SOME SPOTS.  BANDED NATURE TO                     
PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LEAD TO                
WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.                                                  
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT 4 AM...AND IS                   
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.              
THUS EXPECTING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM TO BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM            
TODAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH               
POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE                
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT.  HAVE LEFT WARNINGS INTACT.                
SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THINKING              
IS WE HAVE ANOTHER 7 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE...SO SEAS WILL HAVE                 
ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD AND CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF                 
MA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON.  HAVE               
POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.                                                 
FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.                        
ONCE STORM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN           
NEW ENGLAND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                    
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
KEPT FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE LONGER TERM.                                
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH                    
AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SHIFTING            
POLAR VORTEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL YIELD A BROAD SW              
FLOW OVER THE NE. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABV NORMAL AWAY           
FROM THE COAST WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU. THEREAFTER...SLOW MOVING              
FNT ACRS NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR              
REGION FRI AND SAT.                                                             
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT...AS GFS AND             
CMC GLOBAL HAVE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE NE             
FRI-SAT...WHICH WOULD PUSH FNT OFSHR. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND UKMET                 
INDICATE WEAKER AND BROADER SW FLOW ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE               
SFC FNT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO FNT GETTING HUNG-UP NEAR NEW                   
ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT.              
GIVEN THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM CLIMO FRI AND              
SAT...AND LEAN TWD WARM TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED AND THU.  FOR MON AND            
BEYOND...WEST WINDS 20-25 KT MON/MON NGT...BECOMING SW TUE AND WED.             
SW WNDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NGT.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING TO IFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN             
NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO               
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS INTO               
OUR REGION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY              
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WITH 40-50KT AS FAR                  
INLAND AS KPVD...KORH AND KBOS.                                                 
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS             
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. EXPECT AN INITIAL JUMP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE             
MANY TERMINALS IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR OVERNIGHT.                                
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RI AIRPORTS THROUGH 1 PM. WE              
EXPECT TO ISSUE THE SAME FOR KBOS/LOGAN A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING.            
MARINE...                                                                       
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS                     
SITUATION FOR ANY MARINERS OUT THERE AS STORM PEAKS LATER THIS                  
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...50-60KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL            
WATERS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AND WE STILL THINK                   
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 20 PERCENT TOO LOW...A TYPICAL              
BIAS...SO WE BUMPED UP SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT ON OUR OUTER WATERS,                
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.              
SPOTTERS...                                                                     
DUE TO A TECHNICAL PROBLEM ON OUR WEBSITE...THE ONLINE SPOTTER                  
FEATURE IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME.  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO             
CALL IN YOUR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER             
SERVICE.  WE ARE SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CTZ003-004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                         
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                           
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>011-026 UNTIL 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MAZ007-012>024 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                     
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024 FROM 9 AM             
     SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.                                                     
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                   
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                         
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                    
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
905 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY)...                                                           
STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS                  
SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT              
EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO              
THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD             
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS.             
ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED.            
SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF                
SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN            
ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD             
SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION.             
UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR             
BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD.  SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY                 
INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO               
THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND                   
15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST             
INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE                       
DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR             
VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS                
MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY               
LATE MORNING.                                                                   
WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS                                
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND              
YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON                    
RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED              
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS.                               
NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS                 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW               
SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO                
UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...                                                      
NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW                
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.  LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE            
COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  XPC THIS              
TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS               
WELL.  FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE            
ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO.  ORAGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING              
TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL.  XPC THIS             
GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW.               
BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO              
NWRN PA.  BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES              
ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS.                 
MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI.  WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN                   
FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE.  TNGT FLOW REMAINS             
290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA.  MSTR              
ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS.  WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2              
TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB              
ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING.  DURG THE AFTN             
FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE.  WILL GO WITH                 
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA.  MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM            
ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES            
AND WED.  GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA.  ATTM FCST IS DRY               
AND WL KP CONTINUITY.  GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND              
WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(THU-SAT)...                                                          
EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF               
OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE.  AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL             
HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF            
THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND               
BETWEEN MODELS.  OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH             
A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR                    
NORTHWARD.  NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC                      
TIMING/STRENGTH.  THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS.                       
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRNG TODAY LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA                     
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY TODAY CUYAHOGA...SUMMIT...                          
      PORTAGE...TRUMBULL.                                                       
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN                                                             
AVIATION...LEINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1047 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
MADE UPDATE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED                  
WITH RECENT RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS,               
SHOW LONGITUDINAL BANDS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN INCREASE                
IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO                  
HAVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT NEAR 7-8KFT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS,                  
GENERALLY 320-330 DEG) WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS                 
ORIENTATION CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH              
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. FORECASTED               
NEW SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE RIDGE UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
AND FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ALSO. ELSEWHERE NEW SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO               
1 INCH EACH PERIOD.                                                             
ALTHOUGH IS NOT SUFFICIENT NEW SNOWFALL TO TRIGGER ISSUING ANY                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO              
CAUTION WEEKEND TRAVELERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 401 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
LGT SN CONTS OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA THIS MRNG.                  
EXPECT LAKE AND RIDGE ENHANCED SHSN TO DVLP FURTHER LTR TDA AS NW               
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS OVR THE AREA.  HAVE KEPT                  
TOTALS RELATIVELY LGT OVR THESE AREAS AS PROGGED WND FIELD IS NOT               
THAT IMPRESSIVE.                                                                
FOR MON...HAVE DECREASE SN CHCS IN THE AFORE MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS            
EARLY AS BNDRY LYR WND BACKS TO THE W; HOWEVER, HAVE ATTEMPTED TO               
TIME APPRCHG SHRTWV WITH CHC NMBRS OVR THE ERN CNTY WRNG AREA DURING            
THE AFTN AND EVE. DAY SHIFT WL PROBABLY HAVE TO ADJUST THE ATTEMPT.             
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
MAIN FEATURE OF THE TIME PD WL BE MODERATING TEMPS AS FLOW                      
DEAMPLIFIES, THEN BACKS TO THE SW. OVRALL NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO               
EXTENDED PDS.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
BACK EDGE OF PCPN FROM EAST COAST STORM STRETCHES FROM KFKL TO KPIT             
TO KPKB. PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS COASTAL LOW PULLS               
OUT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS                
TODAY WITH SCT IFR CIGS IN -SN BR BEFORE PCPN PULLS OUT. MAINLY VFR             
VSBYS OUTSIDE OF PCPN AREAS WITH MVFR TO SCT IFR VSBYS IN PCPN.                 
BACKING WINDS FROM 030 TO 290 TODAY WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH SOME              
GUSTS TO 20KTS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GOOD VERTICAL ALIGNMENT            
FROM SFC THRU H8. LIMITING FACTORS ARE SHORT FETCH AND ONLY A 13                
DEGREE C TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE TEMP AND H8 TEMP. ANY                
BANDS THAT DO FORM WILL BE NARROW WITH VSBYS GOING FROM UNL TO LESS             
THAN 1/4SM QUICKLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1126 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING STEADY LIGHT              
SNOW ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT               
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VERMONT. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE INTO           
NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS              
RUTLAND COUNTY AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND WILL ALSO TAKE OUT A                 
MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WILL OPT TO KEEP               
UP THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR WINDSOR COUNTY...BUT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS                 
MAY NOT QUITE MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE              
NEW FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO LOWER MAX                        
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE ZONES FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO                    
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 423 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SRN NEW ENG TODAY...             
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE. SFC/UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN              
ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. STORM SYS            
TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA ON TUE.                                                 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE TEENS-L20S TODAY WITH               
N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M20S TODAY.             
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET           
OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT VT TODAY. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE             
FA TODAY WITH T-4" OF SN ACRS VT.                                               
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON...WITH WAA                     
DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR                   
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON MON AND LATE ON TUE.               
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. LOW-LVL             
LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR            
TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT TODAY AND MUCH OF THE FA TONITE THRU TUE. PW               
VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TODAY THRU MON NITE...THEN               
AROUND 0.25" ON TUE. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON EACH            
DAY THRU DAY 3.                                                                 
88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MAKING PROGRESS ACRS REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF              
THE FA ATTM. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THIS PCPN WILL BE RUNNING INTO SOME           
LOW-LVL DRY AIR FIRST BEFORE IT STARTS TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE            
FA. PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM STILL EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE MUCH OF            
THE SE/ERN FA TODAY. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM LIKELY ACRS MUCH            
OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT TODAY. BLEND OF            
THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2" (WITH MAX AMTS               
ACRS SE VT) THRU 00Z TONITE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF FACTOR...THIS           
MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF 3-5" ACRS SE VT...WHERE THE GOING SN               
ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED.                                                      
LATEST NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS SOME LK CHAMP LES POSSIBLE BY LATER TODAY            
AND INTO TONITE AS THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE N-NW. ALSO...SOME LK               
FLOW OFF LK ONT POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN FA ON MON NITE/TUE.           
THE NEXT FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS LOOK TO JUST GIVE MUCH OF THE FA A SCHC             
AT SEEING SOME -SHSN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS              
TONITE.                                                                         
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH            
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                                                          
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK S AND E OF THE NEW ENGLAND              
COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT OCNL LOWERING TO            
MVFR AT KMPV AFT 16Z DUE TO VISIBILITY IN -SN. AFT 20Z CIGS LOWERING            
TO BKN025 AT KMPV WITH 3SM -SN. THATS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS PRECIP              
WILL GET BUT KBTV KEPT A PROB30 FOR FLURRIES 22-02Z. SURFACE WINDS              
WILL BACK FROM E TO N AND INCREASE AFT 20Z WITH SOME G20KTS AT KBTV             
AND KMPV.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VTZ012 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.                                
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WGH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
230 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE FORMING OVR WRN ID ATTM FCST                 
AMPLIFY SOME AS IT SWINGS SEWRD OVR NRN UT/SWRN WY THIS EVENING AND             
OVR S-CNTRL WY AND CO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAOB AND                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM REVEAL THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PRINCIPABLY AOA 550MB. RUC...NAM AND GFS            
SHOW WEAK UPWARD QG FORCING PASSING OVR NRN CO AROUND 12Z/MON...BUT             
AS NOTED ABOVE...MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...THERE            
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH QG FORCING...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TO                 
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SNOW SHWRS OVR THE HIGHER MTN PKS AND RIDGES LATE             
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN               
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVR THE NRN CO MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND              
THE POSSIBILITY OF A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER AND EAST OF               
THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS S/W TROUGH EXITING             
THE STATE BY AFTERNOON AND RAPID DRYING FM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST             
AREA. PASSAGE OF S/W EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY              
IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWER/MID 50S ON THE            
PLAINS...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT WARMUP IN THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH VERY COLD             
AIR SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION IN               
THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE UPPER COLORADO IN                 
MIDDLE PARK.                                                                    
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE INTRUSION OF COLD            
AIR AND CHANCE OF SNOW BY MIDWEEK.  UNTIL THEN...FLATTENING FLOW AND            
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS            
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.               
AT THIS TIME...DONT SEE ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FEATURES TO AID HIGH              
WIND DEVELOPMENT.                                                               
THE FLATTENING FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOW SUGGESTED TO               
ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.  THIS                
WOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SO LOWERED              
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  ALSO CANT RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP             
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AIDED BY RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF                 
UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH WYOMING.                                               
BIGGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS LIE AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND               
BEYOND.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...HAVE TRENDED             
NORTHWARD WITH OVERALL TROUGH AND JET PLACEMENT.  THIS COULD VERY               
WELL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN                  
BETTER UPSLOPE AND STRONG Q-G FORCING ARRIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE                
I-70 CORRIDOR.  AS A RESULT... HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE DAYTIME            
PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                           
OVERALL...LOOKING LIKE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST              
AREA.                                                                           
AFTER THURSDAY...SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE            
ROCKIES.  THERE IS SOME WEAK RIDGING ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY...BUT                
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR.  ANOTHER SURGE OF                
COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS SHOWN IN THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES FOR SATURDAY.               
SINCE EMBEDDED WAVES COMING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE                  
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...GOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH                 
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND SEEM PRUDENT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/BARJENBRUCH                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1130 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MASON AND              
OCEAN COUNTIES AS BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SHOW SIMILAR LOW LEVEL                   
CONVERGENCE IN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES AS IN VAN BUREN AND ALLEGAN            
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  THERE IS DECENT COLD               
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON                
TOO. ACTUALLY THE BEST LIFT OVER THE NRN CWA IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA            
IS AFTER SUNSET. SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT.  850 MB            
TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C THIS EVENING IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH FOR                
DECENT SNOW SHOWERS.  SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY                 
COUNTIES... MOSTLY NEAR US-31... IS WHAT I EXPECT TO SEE FALL.                  
INLAND OF THAT I EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.               
SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA CONFIRM A SERIOUS LACK OF LOW LEVEL                     
MOISTURE. SO EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE I ACTUALLY THINK EVEN GETTING              
FLURRIES EAST OF US-131 WILL BE A STRETCH. THUS I REDUCED THE SNOW              
TO FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                
TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES COME IN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST               
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO I HAVE ALLOWED THE SCT SNOWS SHOWERS              
TO REACH THE EASTERN CWA. STILL I DO NO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT                     
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REALLY TAKE ANY SNOW            
BANDS TO FAR INLAND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOON               
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN...MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
247 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO REAL CHANGES. SIMILAR            
TO YESTERDAY...NOT SURE WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL DO. STILL EXPECTING THE            
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING            
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN              
CONFINED TO THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL PROBABLY           
STAY THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE AT 850            
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AR...WITH A CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT. OBS IN THE AREA ARE NOT REPORTING ANYTHING. RADAR REMAINS                   
CLEAR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.             
GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOUDS CLEARING BY 6Z...WHILE THE MODEL HOLDS ON               
UNTIL ABOUT 9Z. WITH THE AIR STILL FAIRLY DRY...DEWPOINTS IN THE                
TEENS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DID NOT WANT TO STRAY            
FROM GUIDANCE MUCH...SO TWEAKED SOME...BUT THE COOLER TEMPS REMAINED            
IN THE NORTH. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S THOUGH. MODELS            
WERE SHOWING WARM ADVECTION AND 950 TEMPS INCREASE A GOOD BIT...SO              
COULD NOT ARGUE WITH LOWER 50S FOR WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY. LOOKING            
AT CLIMATOLOGY GUIDANCE WERE OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                  
LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW            
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE RETURNED.               
GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GOOD. BASICALLY NO REAL CHANGES...JUST TWEAKED             
THE TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                       
850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SW TUESDAY AS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DROPS                
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY           
AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE WARMER TEMPS            
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY RETURN. LOW LEVEL                  
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FIELDS WILL FILL IN BY MID WEEK AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY            
SKIES WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                          
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS                   
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY               
TIMEFRAME. MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE             
WEEK SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WED NIGHT AND                       
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES WHERE CHANCE POPS REDUCED TO SLIGHT             
CHANCE CATEGORY. VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COLUMN NOTED BY              
FRIDAY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS FORECAST INTO NRN MS SO WILL FOLLOW MOS            
WITH CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW AT                      
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESSION. LEFT WARMER                
TEMPS IN FOR CENTRAL AREA FRIDAY BUT REDUCED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND             
SUNDAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       27  49  30  62 /   4   0   0   3                                  
MERIDIAN      26  48  28  61 /   5   0   0   3                                  
VICKSBURG     27  51  30  64 /   4   0   0   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   28  51  30  64 /   6   0   0   3                                  
NATCHEZ       27  52  31  62 /   5   0   0   3                                  
GREENVILLE    26  45  33  58 /   4   0   0   3                                  
GREENWOOD     26  44  30  58 /   5   0   0   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/03                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
250 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH LOW AND SHALLOW                  
MID LVL MOISTURE HAVE LED TO SPOTTY REPORTS OF                                  
FLURRIES...GRAUPEL...AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND                     
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD S...SO HAVE EXTENDED MENTION OF              
TRACE AMOUNT PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO COAST. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20%              
BECAUSE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS AROUND 10% PERCENT OR SO...AND NO                
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURED AS OF YET. THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS                
CONTINUE INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 00Z...SO WILL HANG ON TO              
THEM THROUGH THEN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT                
AS DRY AIR CONTINUE TO FILTERS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP                 
INTO THE 20S AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECOUPLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL                  
SWING JUST TO OUR S MON...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED                  
CLOUDS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS TO DRY FOR ANY POSSIBLE                    
PRECIP. THE THERMAL PROFILES DROP EVEN MORE MON...WITH TEMPS                    
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY              
MAY BE THE ONLY FACTOR DRIVING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. BY MON                 
NT...WINDS WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET AFTER DARK.               
TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S BEFORE WAA ON WSW FLOW               
BEGINS TO INCREASE T/TD AGAIN. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE W                    
ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS                  
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEXT WX                  
MAKER WILL BE A LOW TO OUR NW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE                 
AREA SAT. OVERALL...A DRY AND WARM WEEK ON TAP.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE              
DIVING SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ENOUGH TO                   
INITIATE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND PRODUCE SOME --SN/-IP IN THE                   
ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE SUB CLOUD                
LAYER HAS LED TO VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS AND EVAPORATION OF MUCH OF             
THIS PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS               
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH KNCA THROUGH 23Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL            
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS WILL                
THEN DECREASE WITH CLR SKIES EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE INLAND AROUND SUNRISE...BUT DEWPOINT                       
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE TOO LARGE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING SINCE 17Z BUT WERE                 
STILL GUSTING TO SCA LEVELS. THE GALE WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SCA               
AND THE REMAINDER OF SCA'S WILL BE CONTINUED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE            
SOUNDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER 00Z AND THE               
WATERS SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN               
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS NORTH OF LOOKOUT UNTIL DAWN MONDAY.                        
HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTROL THE WX FOR MUCH OF THE             
PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUE BUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL              
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW RIDGING WEST INTO NC THROUGH THU. WINDS                
WILL BE MAINLY SW AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES            
ARE FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT             
WITH NO SFC REFLECTION. STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON FRI WITH A STRONG COLD              
FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION DAYS 6 OR 7.                                
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 UNTIL 4 AM                 
         MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 UNTIL 9 PM              
         SUNDAY. ..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 1 AM                   
         MONDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAMISON                                                            
LONG TERM...JAMISON                                                             
AVIATION...ELARDO                                                               
MARINE...ELARDO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
400 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WED)...                                                     
NORTH FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST SNOWS                   
COMBINED WITH SOME ENHANCED DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT            
THE DIURNAL PART TO WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THE NORTHWEST               
FLOW LES WILL BECOME ENHANCED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE               
CROSSES THE AREA.   TOWARD MORNING THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE                    
WESTERLY TURNING THE ATTENTION MORE TOWARD PA COUNTIES.  NAM BUFKIT             
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD OMEGA REACHING INTO SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH                 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MON             
ALONG WITH A LES ADV FOR PRIMARY SNOWBELT COUNTIES THROUGH NOON                 
MONDAY AS TERRAIN WILL SQUEEZE OUT LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES.                      
TEMPS COULD GET COLD AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND SW                       
EARLY...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL HINDER             
A DROP LIKE LAST NIGHT.                                                         
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR MON THEN FINALLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST TUE              
ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT.  A CLIPPER COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES                 
WED.  BOTH SYSTEMS WITH JUST CHC POPS NORTH.  TEMPS MODERATING AS               
HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRADES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE            
WEST.  THEREFORE RAIN IS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR MID WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...                                                          
THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED               
STATES WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST.  FOR OUR AREA            
THIS MEANS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONE WEATHER SYSTEM            
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  GFS                     
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH AN ELONGATED LOW WITH ITS            
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA.  THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS THIS             
SOLUTION.  THEREFORE BRINGING MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH               
THU NIGHT AND FRI AS RAIN.  BIG FORECAST BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS               
WITH HPC FRONTAL POSITION AT 12Z FRI RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  BUT                 
WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONTINUED                  
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHSN FOR THE SNOWBELT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.                   
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  NOT BUYING                
INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH OH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES               
FOR END OF THE FORECAST...THIS MAY BECOME NON-EXISTENT WITH CANADIAN            
HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AHD OF THE WK WAVE OVR THE UPR LAKES. PBL            
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WLY TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE MAIN              
LES ACTION TO SHIFT TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND AWAY FROM KCLE...BUT            
YNG MAY SEE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WINDS TURN WLY             
BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVR THE WRN LAKES              
WL ROTATE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAISE THE                          
INVERSION...AND CAUSE SOME FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. IN               
FACT...WITH THE WLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AM THINKING THAT KERI WL SEE              
WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. WL ALSO BRING BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE REMAINDER OF            
THE SITES TONIGHT SIMPLY DUE TO THE LOWER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING                
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY)...                                                           
STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS                  
SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT              
EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO              
THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD             
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS.             
ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED.            
SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF                
SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN            
ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHOGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD            
SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION.             
UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR             
BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD.  SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY                 
INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO               
THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND                   
15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST             
INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE                       
DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR             
VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS                
MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY               
LATE MORNING.                                                                   
WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS                                
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND              
YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON                    
RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED              
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS.                               
NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS                 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW               
SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO                
UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...                                                      
NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW                
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.  LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE            
COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  XPC THIS              
TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS               
WELL.  FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE            
ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO.  OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING              
TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL.  XPC THIS             
GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW.               
BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO              
NWRN PA.  BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES              
ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS.                 
MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI.  WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN                   
FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE.  TNGT FLOW REMAINS             
290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA.  MSTR              
ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS.  WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2              
TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB              
ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING.  DURG THE AFTN             
FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE.  WILL GO WITH                 
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA.  MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM            
ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES            
AND WED.  GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA.  ATTM FCST IS DRY               
AND WL KP CONTINUITY.  GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND              
WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(THU-SAT)...                                                          
EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF               
OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE.  AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL             
HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF            
THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND               
BETWEEN MODELS.  OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH             
A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR                    
NORTHWARD.  NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC                      
TIMING/STRENGTH.  THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS.                       
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY THROUGH 12PM MON                                    
      LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA                                                 
.PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY THROUGH 12 PM MON ERIE...CRAWFORD.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN                                                             
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1230 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                     
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AHD OF THE WK WAVE OVR THE UPR LAKES. PBL            
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WLY TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE MAIN              
LES ACTION TO SHIFT TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND AWAY FROM KCLE...BUT            
YNG MAY SEE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WINDS TURN WLY             
BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVR THE WRN LAKES              
WL ROTATE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAISE THE                          
INVERSION...AND CAUSE SOME FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. IN               
FACT...WITH THE WLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AM THINKING THAT KERI WL SEE              
WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. WL ALSO BRING BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE REMAINDER OF            
THE SITES TONIGHT SIMPLY DUE TO THE LOWER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING                
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY)...                                                           
STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS                  
SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT              
EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO              
THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD             
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS.             
ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED.            
SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF                
SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN            
ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD             
SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION.             
UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR             
BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD.  SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY                 
INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO               
THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND                   
15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST             
INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE                       
DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR             
VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS                
MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY               
LATE MORNING.                                                                   
WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS                                
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND              
YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON                    
RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED              
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS.                               
NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS                 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW               
SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO                
UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...                                                      
NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW                
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.  LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE            
COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  XPC THIS              
TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS               
WELL.  FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE            
ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO.  ORAGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING              
TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL.  XPC THIS             
GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW.               
BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO              
NWRN PA.  BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES              
ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS.                 
MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI.  WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN                   
FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE.  TNGT FLOW REMAINS             
290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA.  MSTR              
ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS.  WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2              
TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB              
ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING.  DURG THE AFTN             
FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE.  WILL GO WITH                 
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA.  MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM            
ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES            
AND WED.  GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA.  ATTM FCST IS DRY               
AND WL KP CONTINUITY.  GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND              
WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(THU-SAT)...                                                          
EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF               
OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE.  AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL             
HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF            
THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND               
BETWEEN MODELS.  OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH             
A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR                    
NORTHWARD.  NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC                      
TIMING/STRENGTH.  THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS.                       
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRNG TODAY LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA                     
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY TODAY CUYAHOGA...SUMMIT...                          
      PORTAGE...TRUMBULL.                                                       
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN                                                             
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
150 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
EXPECT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 THIS               
EVENING, BASED ON RECENT RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL            
WIND PROFILES SHOWING A NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH 7               
KFT AGL WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM 310-330 DEGREES WITH LITTLE                   
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY              
THE INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS OBSERVED ON RECENT RADAR AND                    
SATELLITE DATA. MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, BUT                 
SPOTTY LOCATIONS UNDER MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS COULD GET 2 OR 3              
INCHES OF SNOW.                                                                 
AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND THE INSTABILITY AND             
MIXING DEPTH DECREASE, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WANE TO FLURRIES.                  
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE RIDGES AND                
I-80 SECTIONS WHERE WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES STILL ALLOW SOME LAKE                 
MOISTURE INFLUX.                                                                
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFERINGS AS NAM               
AND GFS MOS VALUES SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RENDITIONS.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CONTINUE TO             
SHOW A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS             
WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OUR AIR SOURCE BEING MORE FROM THE PACIFIC            
OCEAN THAN THE ARCTIC OCEAN, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY            
WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY.                                                  
HOWEVER, THE MILD TEMPERATURES APPEAR SHORT-LIVED, AS GFS SOLUTIONS             
SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED            
STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A RENEWAL OF A NORTHWEST                
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL PUSH AT LEAST 2             
COLD FRONTS AND ENSUING SURGES OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THROUGH THE                 
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY               
INTO SUNDAY, THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN, BUT BY LATE                   
FRIDAY, ALL SNOW. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO             
BECOME ENTRENCHED FOR A FEW DAYS, THE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD                   
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION, EXPECT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW SHOWERS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO              
VALLEY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 THIS EVENING. UNDER THESE SNOW BANDS,              
THERE CAN BE 1SM-2SM -SN OVC008-OVC015. WIND GUSTS CAN PEAK AT                  
20KT-25KT.                                                                      
DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED VERTICAL EXTENT, MVFR             
CEILINGS (OVC020-BKN030) SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.                  
HOWEVER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABATING, VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE                 
P6SM. WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO WESTSOUTHWEST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa