AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1040 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY            
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO                  
SATURDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER...HIGHER PRESSURE FROM             
THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...            
BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE OUT            
WEST SATURDAY...AND OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH              
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDY                
CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                         
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF 16Z...AND WAS                  
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED OVERNIGHT...AND            
IS NOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. UPPER LOW IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY...BE OVER FAR            
SOUTHEAST AZ BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND            
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RESIDUAL                
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION ALL DAY SATURDAY.                             
AS OF 10 AM...SHWRS AND ISOLATED TRW WERE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN                
MARICOPA COUNTY ACROSS NORTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN GILA                
COUNTY. SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING WAS NOTED TO THE REAR OF THIS BAND              
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND MUCH             
OF PIMA COUNTY. COMBINATION OF TEMPORARY CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH...               
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB TEMP DOWN TO -22C OVER AND SOUTH OF             
PHOENIX ACCORDING TO THE RUC)...AND CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS              
CLOUD STREETS OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BODES WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS             
TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA TODAY...WITH STORMS               
PROPAGATING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MID-LATE                     
AFTERNOON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING...IN TERMS OF OMEGA AND             
DIVERGENCE...IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON                  
/EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OVER S-CNTRL AZ WILL             
BE LOWER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS                      
(MIXED-LAYER LI -2 TO -4C) AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW SUPPORT IDEA THAT             
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ COULD PICK UP DECENT ADDITIONAL                    
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM LOCATION TO                 
LOCATION (UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN MOST OF S-CNTRL AZ PICKED UP ONE              
HALF TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN). MEANWHILE...WRAPAROUND CLOUD             
BAND AND LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA            
AND FAR WESTERN AZ THIS MORNING...WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST. CLOUD/SHWR PLUME EXTENDS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                  
CWA...SO AGREE WITH LATEST GFS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE CWA WILL                
EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS                 
TODAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. I HAVE                     
TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AREA FOR                
TODAY GIVEN PREVAILING WX CONDITIONS. ONE OTHER ITEM...GIVEN THE                
VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME              
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM...CANNOT RULE OUT               
SOME PATCHY FOG. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT ON WX GRIDS THIS AM DUE TO              
EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE FOG...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL            
NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW ZIPS NEWD INTO COLORADO BY                
SATURDAY AFTN...THERE WILL BE A DECREASING CLOUDS AND POPS FROM THE             
WEST...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE GRADUALLY THINNING OVER                        
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS            
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN ZONE 24. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE                
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS SAT AND RISE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER             
SERN CA AND THE WESTERN DESERTS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES. HIGHER                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY FOR DRY AND SOMEWHAT                
WARMER CONDITIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
DRY PATTERN. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA                  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND                  
EVENT...WITH RATHER TIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS (AT 700MB GFS SHOWS                   
40-50KTS BY MID DAY TUESDAY)...AND A VERY WINDY SCENARIO COULD LEAD             
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CAL AS SYSTEM                 
ADVECTS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR               
DETAILS. AFTER A DECENT WARMUP SUNDAY-TUESDAY  NOTICEABLY COOLER                
WEATHER IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AFTER            
THAT TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH             
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE             
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTINUE TO            
ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ AND SE CA AROUND THE UPPER BAJA LOW. CIGS            
AS LOW AS 3000 FEET AND VSBYS DOWN TO 3-4 SM MAY PERIODICALLY OCCUR             
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.               
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN AZ GENERATING STRONG            
GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...AND             
IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CALIFORNIA AND            
WRN AZ WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION OCCURRED WITH CURRENT STORM SYSTEM.             
ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE               
WEATHER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
/DG/11/10/MEYERS/ROGERS                                                         
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1253 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA WITH A SLOW EASTWARD                      
PROGRESSION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY AFFECT NORTH ARKANSAS                 
TOWARDS 12Z AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND VFR ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH                  
WILL DROP TO 2500 FT WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF               
THE AREA AROUND 18Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     56  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  20                              
CAMDEN AR         58  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
HARRISON AR       55  75  58  73 /  20  10  10  40                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  59  76 /  10  10  10  40                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  78  60  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
MONTICELLO AR     58  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20                              
MOUNT IDA AR      57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  75  56  75 /  20  10  10  40                              
NEWPORT AR        57  76  58  77 /  20  10  10  20                              
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  77  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
STUTTGART AR      59  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...51                                                                   
</pre> ar                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  56  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
CAMDEN AR         60  80  58  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       59  75  55  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     59  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  54  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
NEWPORT AR        59  77  57  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     60  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  77  56  77 /  20  20  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         60  78  58  77 /  10  10  10  10                              
STUTTGART AR      60  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38                                                
</pre> ar                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
845 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU...OTHERWISE                  
SKIES ARE CLEAR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN BAJA LOW              
ARE JUST EAST OF KERN CO. SOME OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE                   
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNITE SO PTCLDY THERE               
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS THIS EVE RUNNING 6-8 DEGS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY               
AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED GOOD WARMING EXPECTED TOMORROW.                     
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVE.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                          
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINGHAM/MOLINA/MV                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
232 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KERN COUNTY                 
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.                
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA             
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER              
TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.               
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
916 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWINGS EASTWARD THIS                
MORNING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CHANNELED FLOW OVER THE                   
DISTRICT. AT THE 250MB LEVEL...RUC ANALYSIS HAS A +100KT JET MAX                
EXITING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS THIS                    
MORNING. WHILE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE                        
DIMINISHING THIS MID MORNING...WINDS EARLIER WERE ABLE TO REACH 30              
TO 40 MPH. AS THE JET MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WILL SEE MOUNTAIN WINDS              
DECREASE FURTHER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CALIFORNIA.                  
FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OFF-SHORE WHICH WILL               
SUPPORT THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT...WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUAL               
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST ALONG             
THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS                
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 17Z.                   
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE              
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                            
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
437 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...                  
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAD            
A MATURING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA BAJA WITH AN EXPANDED SYNOPTIC                
SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE NORTH-EAST QUADRANTS ACROSS AZ/WRN            
NM. SOME OF THE MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING INTO                  
EXTREME SWRN CO. THERE WAS A ROGUE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER E            
CNTRL NM MOVING NWD...BUT IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS TO MOVES AWAY            
FROM ITS LOW LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT TSRA WAS ACROSS SRN NM JUST NORTH OF THE                
SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS NEW MINI-MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY               
FALL APART ONCE IT GETS INTO NERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING.                        
BASICALLY...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO OUR WRN CWFA/CONTDVD              
AND IN EXTREME SERN CO. TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD WITH                   
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS SERN CO AND 20S/30S IN THE MOUNTAINS/ HIGH                 
VALLEYS.                                                                        
TODAY...WE WILL BE WAITING FOR THE OLD CLOSED LOW TO EJECT LATER                
TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH "SIGNIFICANT" WEATHER UNTIL LATER            
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.              
ACROSS SERN CO...PRECIP MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE                    
GROUND...INITIALLY...GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTING              
VIRGA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION SHAFTS...IF            
THEY FORM...MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON               
ACROSS SERN CO. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT MSL              
LATER TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY DOABLE AND BLENDED                
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.                                                       
TONIGHT...06Z/23 WRF IS INTERESTING COMPARED TO THE 00Z/23 RUN. THE             
00Z/23 RUN HAD THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION                     
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL            
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRECIPITATION TO GENERATE TOWARDS SAT AM.                 
WELL...NOW IT "BLOWS" UP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SANGRE DE                  
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/23 DID NOT "BLOW UP"            
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.  ONE CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION ZONE                  
DEVELOPING MAY BE ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX/WRN OK INTO EXTREME SERN CO              
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW LIFTS N-NEWD OUT OF AZ/WRN                  
NM...RELATIVELY DEEP SLY FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE PER H7               
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS/MAG. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR              
MASS TO GENERATE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JUST S OF EXTREME               
SERN CO AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WRF                    
SUGGESTING A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM JUST AHEAD OF THE               
CLOSED LOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIGHT SEE SOME MODERATE TO               
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND SWD GIVEN GEORGE/S K-INDICES              
OF 35-40C AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 5 G/KG AND MORE                    
IMPORTANTLY ANY PRECIPITATION TRAINING GIVEN A DEEP SLY FLOW. THE               
GREATER THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE S-SE OF EXTREME              
SERN CO...BUT IT MIGHT MOVE INTO BACA COUNTY IF CELLS CAN HOLD                  
TOGETHER. INCREASED POPS ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO TO LIKELY FOR LATER             
TONIGHT. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FT MSL. METZE               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS LIFTING CLOSED LOW FROM             
CENTRAL NM AND THE 4 CORNERS REGION THROUGH CENTRAL CO...AND INTO NE            
CO/SW NE BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THIS BRINGS FCST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG              
QG FORCING BY SAT MORNING...SPREADING NORTHWARD QUICKLY DURING THE              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.  ATMOS BECOMES CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AS                
COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION BY AFTN...SO SHOULD SEE SOME              
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WARM              
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 9KFT...DROPPING             
TO 8KFT BY LATE AFTN. BEST LIFT ACCORDING TO 00Z RUNS WILL AFFECT CEN           
CO UNDER DEFORMATION BAND AND MID LEVEL TROWAL. HOWEVER...WITH                  
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS JUST              
ABOUT ANY OF THE MTS. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS/ADJACENT INTERSTATE              
25 CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMPING UP IN THE MID TO                  
LATE MORNING AS H7 WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME EASTERLY AS H7 CLOSED LOW               
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FAR EASTERN PLAINS QUICKLY BECOME DRY SLOTTED BY               
MID/LATE MORNING THOUGH AS 90 KT UPPER JET CORE LIFTS NORTH INTO                
SE CO...SO COULD SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS LATE SAT                             
MORNING...BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTN.                
NAM/GFS HAVE THE FRONT POSITIONED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID                
AFTN...WITH AROUND 800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.                
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW                   
QUICKLY MIXES OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                       
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR           
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...HOWEVER              
LATEST RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP BEST SVR POTENTIAL JUST TO THE EAST AND              
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
OF COURSE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE                     
MOUNTAINS. NAM PAINTS A GENEROUS 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR SAT ACROSS              
ALL BUT THE SRN SANGRES (IN PROXIMITY OF DRY SLOT)...WITH AN                    
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT.               
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                   
CEN/SW MTS UNDER DEFORMATION BAND ON SAT...WITH UP TO AN                        
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT. GFS              
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE...BUT WOULDNT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MTN                   
AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN CONVECTIVE                  
POTENTIAL. ALL IN ALL...STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL ADVISORY                   
EVENT. DEPENDING ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF DRY SLOT...PIKES PEAK AND                
THE WET MTS COULD ALSO SEE LOW END ADVISORY NUMBERS...THOUGH                    
BREVITY OF UPSLOPE MAY KEEP THEM JUST SHY. STILL SOME                           
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE POSITION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND UPPER                
LOW...WHICH COULD MAKE/BREAK THE SNOW AMOUNT FCST. SO WILL NOT                  
HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS JUST YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT                 
ANOTHER SET OF RUNS.                                                            
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN WITH SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY                  
WINDING DOWN.  TEMPS REBOUND NICELY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT                  
WEEK...THEN GFS BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS NRN CO/WY TUES                 
NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON                
TUES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION            
FOR THE MTS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR TUES                       
NIGHT/EARLY WED.  THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS            
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH POTENTIAL ON FOR MID WEEK.  NO CHANGES            
MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUES. -KT                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST OUR N WITH PREVAILING LOW                  
LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND              
RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE MID-UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GOMEX NEWD INTO              
THE SE STATES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER           
SE GA SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALMA OCCASIONAL REPORTING                 
VIS BELOW 1SM. EXPECT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER ENTIRE CWA NEXT                 
FEW HOURS WITH THE DENSE FOG MAINLY CONFINED IN INTERIOR SE GA.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION                  
WITH A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PINCHING OFF OVER SRN AL AND GA SAT-SUN.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DEFINITE WARMING TREND FOR                   
MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED              
THROUGH EARLY MORNING OVER SE GA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS.              
FOR MAX TEMPS PREFERRED A BLEND BUT MOSTLY LIKED THE MAV GUIDANCE               
AS MET VERIFYING A BIT TOO COOL. MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND                    
SECTIONS. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY ELY 10-15 MPH                
WINDS BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS IN AFTERNOON BUT LOWER THAN                      
PREVIOUS DAYS. TONIGHT...STRONGER HIGH PRES ALOFT WITH WEAKER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPELLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AREAS OF FOG                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. SAT...MORNING FOG DISSIPATES                 
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WITH                  
MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY                   
CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. LOWS CONTINUE TO               
BE MOSTLY MID 50S. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES WITH WARM                   
TEMPS FROM MID 80S TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. WILL BE SEEING A                         
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDE DOWN THE E COAST THROUGH CAROLINAS                   
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S              
RUN SHOWING BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM AND              
GFS SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO SE GA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON WITH                    
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH ALL THE CWA WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON NE FLOW THANKS TO                
1033 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC. PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE INCREASED                
MON WITH BREEZY CONDS DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES. HAVE MOVED UP                  
POPS TO MON AT 20% FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL AS ASSOCD                    
MOISTURE WITH FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SWD              
TUE-THU WITH NO MENTION OF POPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS                      
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND                
12Z DUE MAINLY TO VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR. EAST WINDS INCREASE                      
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS WILL               
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
FOR SEAS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND DROP ON SUNDAY. A STRONG BACK               
DOOR FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST MONDAY AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SCA                
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH`S AOB 35% POSSIBLE TODAY AND SAT               
AFTN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN NE FL. OTHERWISE NO                    
MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
TO 15 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY WHEN                   
A BACK DOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  83  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SSI  74  58  76  57 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  55  81  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  74  59  75  60 /  10  10   0  10                                           
GNV  83  53  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
OCF  83  55  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY            
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-                 
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
130 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEST             
WIND IN ILLINOIS AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. WITH THIS WIND PATTERN                
ALOFT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A HIGH               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.              
THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL              
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FROM 11 TO 12 UTC. THIS IS THE TIME OF                 
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT              
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT A                  
SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WE USED THE NAM AND A LOCALLY            
RUN WRF MODEL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
650 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
856 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST SENT AN UPDATE. CHANGES WERE MINOR. INCREASED                
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MATCHES WITH                 
CURRENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS AREA              
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED                
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE EAST WHICH                        
PRECIPITATION HAS YET TO START...AND THEN RAISED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.           
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/LATEST RUC.               
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
924 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY              
FOR THE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM MDT/                 
NOON CDT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TO TAKE A LITTLE                  
LONGER TO BREAK WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE                 
OBSERVATIONS STILL AT A QUARTER OF A MILE REPORTED AT SOME                      
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GOODLAND...COLBY AND MCCOOK. EXPECT FOG TO                  
LIFT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.                  
WILL BE WATCHING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSELY WHICH MAY BE                   
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                                        
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1038 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT HAD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF               
HIGHWAY 50 AT MID-MORNING...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTING              
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH              
OF EARLY MORNING GRID PACKAGE...SO HAVE REFLECTED THE CHANGES IN                
THE LATEST GRID/FORECAST UPDATE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DIURNAL HEATING (IE. CLOUD                
TRENDS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SOME               
HOLES INTO MIDDAY...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO ENCROACH SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
BOUNDARY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL ML                 
CAPES OF AROUND 1800 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGE                
TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AND FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING LATE THIS                    
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TSRA CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND ALSO TEMPS.                                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN KS AT              
THIS TIME. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT               
HELPING TO GET ELEVATED STORMS GOING.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR                
SOUTH /IF AT ALL/  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER            
THIS MORNING. SOME PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO            
PREFER THE NAM-WRF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT GENERALLY ALONG AN EMP-HUT             
LINE BEFORE IT STALL.  WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT             
IS THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO              
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN TSRA CHANCE WILL BE THIS              
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                      
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE                 
RATES ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS            
MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT            
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR               
AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER AREAS WITH                 
SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BETTER             
DEFINE THIS ONCE BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS.                
WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS AS BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF            
THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT             
SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY BUT PROBABLY DIMINISHING                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LIFT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME TRANING STORMS IN              
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SO FLOODING THREAT WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO              
BE WATCHED.                                                                     
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
FOR FRI.  MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL                  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS             
AS ANY WEAK IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT               
TSRA CHANCE TO BE WIDESPREAD.                                                   
BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN               
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL STILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW              
AS PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IN LATER RUNS WILL BETTER DEFINE                   
HIGHEST POP AREAS.                                                              
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY REMAINS               
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ON SAT FOR BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN             
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE              
AREA UNTIL SUN EVENING. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY            
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
SEVERE THREAT ON SAT AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE BUT INSTABILITY             
LOOKS MODEST.                                                                   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS             
FINALLY MOVE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY             
WILL BE A DAY TO DRY OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LAYERS. A                 
RATHER RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED FOR ANOTHER              
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION.                                                   
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  59  72  58 /  50  60  40  40                                
HUTCHINSON      70  58  72  57 /  40  50  40  40                                
NEWTON          71  58  71  57 /  50  60  40  40                                
ELDORADO        73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  60  73  59 /  60  60  40  40                                
RUSSELL         61  51  71  53 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      64  53  71  55 /  30  40  40  40                                
SALINA          63  52  69  54 /  30  50  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       67  56  71  56 /  40  50  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     76  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
CHANUTE         74  60  72  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
IOLA            73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-083-092>096-                  
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
440 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD                   
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                 
ELEVATED LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY BY MIDDAY ALONG OR              
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OPTIMUM ELEVATED LIFT WITH FAIRLY GOOD             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN            
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS. NO             
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YET...BUT BEARS WATCHING IN 12Z RUN. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES EXCEEDINGLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING NEARLY            
250% OF NORMAL! THIS HIGH WATER CONTENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND DOES NOT REALLY GET MODIFIED TO ANY GREAT EXTENT UNTIL UPPER                
SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH               
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                                        
SETUP FOR SEVERE TODAY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
WARMFRONT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION             
TO FRONTAL AREA OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER AND THE                  
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE EVEN GREATER. SHEAR SEEMS TO BE                 
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY AS WELL.                                  
TEMPERATURES IN TURN A REAL CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TO              
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM CLOSELY WITH IT`S SFC                 
TEMPERATURE FCST. THUS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE              
LOWER 70S SOUTH.                                                                
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WAITING             
FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF MEAN WESTERN TROF POSITION. THIS              
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER                  
CHANCE APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.                                                
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST NOT CHANGED MUCH AS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO              
ADD MUCH DETAIL OR FIND REASONS TO MAKE CHANGES IN SUCH AN UNSETTLED            
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
358 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HELPED PUSH A                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF SW KS. THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM STRETCHED                
FROM NORTH OF HUGOTON TO HUTCHINSON. SFC TEMPS WERE VERY BALMY                  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT(71 AT BUFFALO,OK AND 65 AT LIBERAL). THE SFC                 
DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AN                          
UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. 500MB                    
TEMPS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS WERE                         
FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN FACT THE NAM HAS 500MB TEMPS                     
AROUND -13C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO                 
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60SF ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. A LARGE AREA                
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NE INTO NM AND WEST TX.                   
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS TODAY...THE                    
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE RUC                 
MEMBERS SURGE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY TO A GCK TO HAYS                
LINE. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RUC13 SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THIS               
MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY. WITH BROKEN MID                
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW... TEMPS WILL STAY IN                 
THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OK STATE LINE               
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.                                                      
I EXPECT THE SFC DRYLINE TO STRETCH FROM DALHART TO CARLSBAD,NM                 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT CLOSE TO                
DALHART. FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING...SOME ELEVATED HEATING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...      
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE                    
INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LOCAL POOLING                 
OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG             
FROM P28 TO ENGLEWOOD. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA...A FEW OF                 
THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR                   
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BUT AS WE HAVE                  
SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG CAN BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO                
TONIGHT. BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE                        
BY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS                      
ON SATURDAY. SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY               
SAKE AND SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.                                       
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING EXTENDED.  BOTH THE UKMET AND             
GFS BRING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM UP FROM SOUTHERN BAHA CALIFORNIA TO               
WESTERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE WE HAVE 40               
POPS GOING NOW.  THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEARS OUT.  TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND IN              
LINE WITH SURROUNDING WFO GRIDS.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...PERHAPS            
WITH 80S SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA.  LEFT TUES MAX T`S ALONE FOR NOW...AS            
OUR SW HAS MID 70S GOING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...STRATUS WILL LIKELY             
FORM AT DDC AND GCK IN THE 012 TO 015 FEET RANGE BY 11Z THIS                    
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LINGER MUCH BEYOND 15-16Z.               
ALSO...FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WILL FORM AT DDC...GCK AND             
HYS AND LAST THROUGH 15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  53  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
GCK  64  45  72  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
EHA  71  47  71  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
LBL  73  51  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
HYS  61  48  72  55 /  20  20  20  20                                           
P28  76  59  70  61 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CUT OFF LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE             
UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.             
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS. EVEN AS                
EARLY AS TODAY...NAM BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER               
THE AREA/WHEREAS GFS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANYTHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
INCONCLUSIVE...SINCE JUST SEE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP                  
TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LITTLE TO GO ON WILL PLAY            
THE PERCENTAGES AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT RELIABLE RUC CEILING            
FORECAST SHOWS 2KFT BROKEN DECK OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH            
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS A RESULT.              
FRIDAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...THOUGH MODELS SWITCH PLACES WITH              
GFS WET AND NAM DRY. IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL COME UNDER                    
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH DEVELOPS FRIDAY                    
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE             
SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS...ISC CONSTRAINTS WILL                 
DICTATE LOW CHANCE POPS. THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MAIN LOW               
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH LENDS LITTLE TO             
NO CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES               
GIVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH              
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR                
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT SDF AND LEX. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE             
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION                  
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AT BWG             
OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS DECENT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS AT 1500FT (25KT) WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.             
ALSO NOTED THAT A 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRESENT EVEN            
NOW WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBS.                                                
SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED            
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS LEX AND SDF. CEILINGS WILL STAY             
VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXCEPT UNDERNEATH ANY LOCAL SHOWERS. JSD                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFY CNVCTN AT THIS           
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
902 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ADDED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE POP FOR SW INDIANA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER                 
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS            
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS KEEP QUASI                     
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE                 
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI              
OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A SE MOVEMENT TO ANY              
ORGANIZED MCS THAT DEVELOPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE PERIOD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT.                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK DOWN TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS                 
RIGHT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE                
WEAKENING AND FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE AIRMASS                 
THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE             
AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HAVE MUCH POP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
WILL HOWEVER...INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT            
TO FIT IN TO SOME DEGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.                                        
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL             
DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE              
REGION. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST              
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE GFS BRINGS INTO OUR WEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.                 
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN RAMP UP TO               
50-60 POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IF IT IS AS FOCUSED AS TODAYS                      
CONVECTION HAS BEEN...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET WET. THEREFORE WILL NOT            
GO HIGHER THAN 60S FOR NOW.  THOSE 60S WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE               
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF. THE NAM IS NOT SURE            
ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING WET.                                           
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST...SO            
WILL LEAVE A 20-30 POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE               
FRONT RE-LOCATES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO REGENERATE            
CONVECTION ALL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS THE LONE MODEL             
THAT DOES NOT BUILD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL              
THEREFORE IGNORE ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW.                                          
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE GLORIOUS WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 EACH                 
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                  
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVEN THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO DRAG SOME                 
REMNANT OF THE SW U.S. CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY              
OR TUESDAY. WILL THROW IN 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST              
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK             
DRY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA ON             
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                  
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN            
THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW WHERE THE                  
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN               
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
953 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OR THE NORTHERN AREA AROUND SDF AND LEX...NOT SO                
MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
-SCHOTT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                               
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                              
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYERED MOISTURE THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN. SFC OBS/SATL DATA CONFIRMS SCT-BKN                          
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACRS FORECAST AREA THIS LATE MORNING BUT THE                
CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR TO BE BREAKING AND THINNING. THEREFORE EXPECT              
SKY CONDITION WILL AVERAGE PTSUNNY DURING THE AFTN. INSOLATION                  
SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCSTD VALUES RANGING                 
FROM M60S ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO M70S OVER PIEDMONT...BUT OF                 
COURSE COOLER WHERE FLOW IS ONSHORE. LTL IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO               
FCST ATTM BUT UPDATED FCST TO REFRESH PRODUCTS.                                 
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
DECIDED TO ADD SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WTRS FROM SMITH POINT                 
TO NEW POINT COMFORT...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. RUC                
AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST INCRSG SFC WINDS AFTER 18Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW               
AROUND 15 KT AT SFC UNDER WEAK INVERSION WITH 25-30 KTS ABOVE                   
INVERSION. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS DOWN TO SFC.               
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT SO                   
OPTED NOT TO GO FOR SCA FOR SOUTHERN BAY BUT STEADY 15 KT. ON CSTL              
WTRS...EXPECT 15-20 KT SOUTH WINDS FROM FENWICK DOWN TO PARRAMORE               
WITH LONGER FETCH BUILDING SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA AFTER 2 PM.                     
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT/SAT                 
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS                             
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH. THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH                
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 513 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD               
FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST                 
REGIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONERN TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER                
EXTENT (DEPTH) AND THUS IMPACT ON TEMPS.                                        
GFS/NAM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE ACCORD IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH                   
TONIGHT). BOTH INDICATE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE MASON-              
DIXON LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AS THE              
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL/FLAT UPPER                  
RIDGE. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING/MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR POPS                    
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. AS FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW               
VEERS TOWARD THE S-SW RESULTING IN MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING (AND                
RELATIVE DRYING) WITHING THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. STILL EXPECT                    
PERIODIC WAVES OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AS WE GET INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...THUS HAVE WORDED PARTLY SUNNY. BASED ON RECENT                
TRENDS (YDAY)...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS TODAY FOR               
HIGH TEMPS. THIS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED                       
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN (ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH THE LATE MARCH               
SUN ANGLE).                                                                     
TONIGHT...FRONT DIPS INTO NRN VA AND THE NRN PTN OF THE DELMARVA.               
HAVE INCLUDED LOW (30-40%) POPS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA                   
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FLATTENING UPPER              
FLOW (AND NEGLIGIBLE STRAIGHT UPPER JET FORCING)...DYNAMICS AND THUS            
MOISTURE DEPTHS REMAIN LACKING. S OF FVX-RIC-MFV...MOISTURE IS                  
JUST TOO SHALLOW (PARTICULARLY IN LOW LEVELS) FOR POPS.                         
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO                   
QUICK WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST-                 
OH VLY-MID ATLC REGION. SIDING MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...                 
EXPECT A NW-SE DRAPED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...             
WITH THE FRONT TAKING ON THE TYPICAL "SAG" EAST TOWARD THE COOLER               
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE...          
I.E. AROUND 80/LOWER 80S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE LOWER ERN                
SHORE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOW POPS OVER              
THE N-NE ZONES ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.                       
SATURDAY...GFS IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO                 
THE OTHER MODELS...BASICALLY A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL BEING TOO              
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL UPPER SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE         
STATIONARY FRONT. GFS (MAV) MOS GUIDANCE IN FACT IS SOME 20+                    
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND LOCALES COMPARED TO THE              
NAM (MET) GUIDANCE! FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM/          
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT DROP THE FRONT S OF THE LOWER DELMARVA                   
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER              
DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SW (80-85) TO                  
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (LOW-MID                
50S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/ECWMF TRENDS...AND WITH THE LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SAT-SUN...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO                
THE FCSTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM              
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE (OFFSHORE) ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A                    
COOLER DAY OVER THE NERN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH AGAIN                   
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MUCH MILDER AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SW. TOWARD               
PETERSBURG/FARMVILLE/SOUTH HILL.                                                
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE MVFR CIGS              
NORTH AND WEST...VFR SOUTH. FLOW TURNS TO S OR SW LATER TODAY WITH              
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BY AFTN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. MVFR CIGS MAY            
HANG TOUGH ON THE ERN SHORE THRU 16-18Z. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS               
MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.                                
MARINE...GRADIENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.                
CHILLY BAY WATERS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX THESE               
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC...SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE BAY &                
SOUND BELOW SMALL CRAFT (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE LATER THIS AFTN).            
ON COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (NEAR 20 KTS BY AFTN)             
WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (5 FT                 
WAVES OFFSHORE) N OF PARRAMORE ISL...FROM LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH             
ERLY MRNG THU.  DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD               
FRONT SAT/SAT NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS               
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH.  THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH               
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY                        
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTN FOR MUCH OF INLAND VA.               
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO RH VALUES DO NOT DROP OFF              
THAT MUCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT 35-45% AT THE DRIEST.             
FARTHER EAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MIXING                  
SOMEWHAT SO WINDS LIKELY STAY MORE FROM DUE SOUTH AT 15 KTS OR LESS.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT              
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER                                               
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1120 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR ARENAC COUNTY AS THE              
RIFLE RIVER IS STILL A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE                
(8.72 FEET AT 11 PM). WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RIVER WILL BE BELOW                 
FLOOD STAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING OUT            
FAR ENOUGH SO THAT IF IT TAKES LONGER THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO             
COMFORTABLY DEAL WITH IT.                                                       
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1007 PM                                                        
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES                        
FOR THE N LOWER OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY                
INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS STAYING SOUTH OF M-55. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS                 
SITUATION THE BEST WITH THE TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE TVC                   
SHOWING THAT THE LOWEST CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH THE                
MOISTURE KEEPING THE AT OR ABOVE 3000FT. SO THE MAIN THING WILL BE              
CLOUDING THE FORECAST TONIGHT FASTER AND ADDING A CHANCE OF RAIN                
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                                      
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 819 PM                                                       
HAVE BEEN TIMING THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL AFFECT TVC                           
FIRST AND THEN PLN AND APN. THE TIMING LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM            
AND RUC MODELS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE ACTUAL TAFS. SO HAVE LEFT THE               
FIRST 6 HOURS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE LOWEST CLOUDS LOOK TO              
STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE N LOWER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON              
ON SATURDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.                      
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM                                                
HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS               
AFTERNOON. AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE            
(PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA                   
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE             
CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING PER SATELLITE                   
TRENDS. TO THE SOUTH...ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY PRODUCING PERSISTENT RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE (MORE              
ON THAT BELOW). TO THE WEST...STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSS              
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE PASSING                   
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.                                                    
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING A DIFFERENT              
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS...SPECIFICALLY             
IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH. 12Z                 
NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE BULLISH...DRAWING A SUBSTANTIAL                 
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS               
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CERTAINLY                   
APPEARS TO BE THE TREND AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING WALL             
OF STRATUS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN               
AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THUS TRENDED THE                 
FORECAST TOWARD THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF THINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH                   
SATURDAY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME PRECIP              
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BUT             
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS A BIT SHALLOW WITH THE MOISTURE -                    
PRIMARILY WARMER THAN 0C. IF ANYTHING...CAN SEE SOME DRIZZLE                    
DEVELOPING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN                 
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NRN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROWS               
YET ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST. DECENT POCKET OF ASSOCIATED               
MID LEVEL QG UPWARD FORCING SWEEPING THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE                
STATE LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING/COMBINED WITH BETTER MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE               
RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. SO PLAN IS TO            
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY.                 
MAY GET LOCKED INTO THE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY                 
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR/RIDGING LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE            
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS               
OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                             
HYDRO CONCERNS...USGS GAGE READINGS ON THE TOBACCO AND RIFLE RIVERS             
NOW STARTING TO FALL BUT STILL ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE ON THE RIFLE                
RIVER NEAR STERLING AND TOBACCO RIVER NEAR BEAVERTON. WILL TAKE                 
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TO GET LEVELS              
BACK DOWN AGAIN. THUS...CURRENT FLOOD HEADLINES WILL CONTINUES.                 
ADAM                                                                            
TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONT TO AGAIN MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS              
AFTER BUCKLING NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW             
NIGHT. THIS WILL SCOUR ANY REMNANT CLOUDS (IF THERE ARE ANY BY THIS             
POINT) AS DRY PUNCH ADVECTS THROUGH THE LAKES...AND BRING A                     
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM PRECIP CHANCES. PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE SO HIGH             
WILL SLIDE EAST QUICKLY BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO AGAIN                 
BUCKLE NORTHWARD AS OPENING UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS              
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. DRY AIR INITIALLY QUITE ENTRENCHED AND THUS             
EXPECT A TIGHT RH GRADIENT TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LIFTS                         
NORTHWARD...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP. WHERE THIS LINE WILL             
EVENTUALLY BE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL            
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS WARM              
FRONT GETS CLOSER AND SATURATION MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR.                          
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE              
ACTION AS WEAKENING BUT STILL POTENT UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO WESTERN              
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
RATHER IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TO SATURATE                 
THINGS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG LIFTING              
WARM FRONT BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT.                 
INCREASING DIFLUENCE AND HELP FROM JET/WARM ADVECTION AND STEEPENING            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER APPROACH OF COOL POOL SHOULD SUPPORT A                
DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA              
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO QUITE WARM CONDITIONS                 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE WEST MAKES ONLY              
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH AREA FALLING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND              
H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 11C UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.                        
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIP CHANCES DURING              
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY              
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH                 
LIKELY ON A SLOW PACE AS FORCING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AND FRONT RUNS            
INTO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.            
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SEVERAL               
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER                 
RIDGE...THOUGH LATEST GFS APPEARS OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY FED-BACK            
WITH ITS SPURIOUS SHORTWAVE DEPICTIONS. WITH NEARLY STATIONARY                  
BOUNDARY BECOMING THE FOCUSING MECHANISM AND PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE            
IN PLACE GIVEN PWATS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A NICE              
STRETCH OF WEATHER. ANY REMNANT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY              
EVENING AS LOW/MID LEVELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY WITH EASTWARD ADVANCE OF              
SFC/UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH               
COMING ONSHORE AND ADVANCING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL INCITE DEEP                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE                
REGION VERSUS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. THUS...AFTER A POTENTIALLY                
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY WITH                   
ENHANCED MIXING PER TIGHTER GRADIENT. APPEARS THIS TIMEFRAME COULD              
FEATURE THE FIRST FIRE CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS               
BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE DRYING ENSUING...WHILE SURFACE             
HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY HOLDS LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WHILE WINDS              
COME UP PER TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.                       
HIGH TEMPERATURES REALLY THE MAIN STORY WITH SPRINGLIKE READINGS                
RETURNING GIVEN STRONG PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF PLAINS              
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A FEW POTENTIAL ROADBLOCKS REMAIN WHICH COULD                 
RESULT IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. APPEARS WARMTH MAY                   
INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED ON WEDNESDAY AS LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS                  
TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESENT OVER                
EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF INSOLATION GIVEN DRY                 
POCKET FIRMLY IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO READINGS...                 
THOUGH LIKELY ONLY IN THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION JUST TAKING HOLD.             
THURSDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WARM FRONT MIXES                   
NORTHWARD WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MIGHT SEE A FEW              
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT PER RENEWED THETA-E ADVECTION             
AND BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...            
HOWEVER GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE                     
WEST...APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRONT WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH              
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS TIME.               
HENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60                          
SOUTH...THOUGH COULD EASILY BE MUCH WARMER PENDING PLACEMENT/TIMING             
OF BOUNDARY.                                                                    
COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE THURSDAY AS LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS              
GO AROUND AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH             
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. FORCING ALSO APPEARS RATHER             
GOOD WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE OPENS UP AND                 
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES WITH STRONG FRONT CRUISING EAST INTO            
THE LAKES. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT            
AND WHILE I DO FORESEE A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE                  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALSO EXPECT TIMING CHANGES OVER THE COMING            
DAYS.                                                                           
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 130 PM.                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITHIN THE LOW               
LEVELS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING                               
HOURS...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS.                        
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SCT-BKN090              
DECK...MOSTLY AFFECTING PLN...WITH A MORE SCT SCENARIO AT APN.  A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT              
LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                      
NORTHWARD...AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE                   
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR                
NORTH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY              
IN PLACE.                                                                       
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH EARLY                  
      SATURDAY MORNING...MIZ041-042.                                            
     FLOOD WARNING...THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY...MIZ042.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1007 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES              
FOR THE N LOWER OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY                
INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS STAYING SOUTH OF M-55. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS                 
SITUATION THE BEST WITH THE TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE TVC                   
SHOWING THAT THE LOWEST CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH THE                
MOISTURE KEEPING THE AT OR ABOVE 3000FT. SO THE MAIN THING WILL BE              
CLOUDING THE FORECAST TONIGHT FASTER AND ADDING A CHANCE OF RAIN                
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                                      
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 819 PM                                                       
HAVE BEEN TIMING THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL AFFECT TVC                           
FIRST AND THEN PLN AND APN. THE TIMING LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM            
AND RUC MODELS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE ACTUAL TAFS. SO HAVE LEFT THE               
FIRST 6 HOURS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE LOWEST CLOUDS LOOK TO              
STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE N LOWER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON              
ON SATURDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.                      
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM                                                
HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS               
AFTERNOON. AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE            
(PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA                   
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE             
CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING PER SATELLITE                   
TRENDS. TO THE SOUTH...ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY PRODUCING PERSISTENT RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE (MORE              
ON THAT BELOW). TO THE WEST...STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSS              
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE PASSING                   
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.                                                    
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING A DIFFERENT              
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS...SPECIFICALLY             
IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH. 12Z                 
NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE BULLISH...DRAWING A SUBSTANTIAL                 
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS               
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CERTAINLY                   
APPEARS TO BE THE TREND AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING WALL             
OF STRATUS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN               
AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THUS TRENDED THE                 
FORECAST TOWARD THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF THINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH                   
SATURDAY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME PRECIP              
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BUT             
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS A BIT SHALLOW WITH THE MOISTURE -                    
PRIMARILY WARMER THAN 0C. IF ANYTHING...CAN SEE SOME DRIZZLE                    
DEVELOPING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN                 
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NRN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROWS               
YET ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST. DECENT POCKET OF ASSOCIATED               
MID LEVEL QG UPWARD FORCING SWEEPING THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE                
STATE LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING/COMBINED WITH BETTER MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE               
RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. SO PLAN IS TO            
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY.                 
MAY GET LOCKED INTO THE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY                 
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR/RIDGING LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE            
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS               
OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                             
HYDRO CONCERNS...USGS GAGE READINGS ON THE TOBACCO AND RIFLE RIVERS             
NOW STARTING TO FALL BUT STILL ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE ON THE RIFLE                
RIVER NEAR STERLING AND TOBACCO RIVER NEAR BEAVERTON. WILL TAKE                 
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TO GET LEVELS              
BACK DOWN AGAIN. THUS...CURRENT FLOOD HEADLINES WILL CONTINUES.                 
ADAM                                                                            
TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONT TO AGAIN MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS              
AFTER BUCKLING NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW             
NIGHT. THIS WILL SCOUR ANY REMNANT CLOUDS (IF THERE ARE ANY BY THIS             
POINT) AS DRY PUNCH ADVECTS THROUGH THE LAKES...AND BRING A                     
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM PRECIP CHANCES. PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE SO HIGH             
WILL SLIDE EAST QUICKLY BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO AGAIN                 
BUCKLE NORTHWARD AS OPENING UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS              
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. DRY AIR INITIALLY QUITE ENTRENCHED AND THUS             
EXPECT A TIGHT RH GRADIENT TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LIFTS                         
NORTHWARD...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP. WHERE THIS LINE WILL             
EVENTUALLY BE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL            
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS WARM              
FRONT GETS CLOSER AND SATURATION MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR.                          
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE              
ACTION AS WEAKENING BUT STILL POTENT UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO WESTERN              
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
RATHER IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TO SATURATE                 
THINGS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG LIFTING              
WARM FRONT BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT.                 
INCREASING DIFLUENCE AND HELP FROM JET/WARM ADVECTION AND STEEPENING            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER APPROACH OF COOL POOL SHOULD SUPPORT A                
DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA              
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO QUITE WARM CONDITIONS                 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE WEST MAKES ONLY              
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH AREA FALLING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND              
H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 11C UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.                        
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIP CHANCES DURING              
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY              
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH                 
LIKELY ON A SLOW PACE AS FORCING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AND FRONT RUNS            
INTO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.            
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SEVERAL               
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER                 
RIDGE...THOUGH LATEST GFS APPEARS OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY FED-BACK            
WITH ITS SPURIOUS SHORTWAVE DEPICTIONS. WITH NEARLY STATIONARY                  
BOUNDARY BECOMING THE FOCUSING MECHANISM AND PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE            
IN PLACE GIVEN PWATS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A NICE              
STRETCH OF WEATHER. ANY REMNANT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY              
EVENING AS LOW/MID LEVELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY WITH EASTWARD ADVANCE OF              
SFC/UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH               
COMING ONSHORE AND ADVANCING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL INCITE DEEP                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE                
REGION VERSUS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. THUS...AFTER A POTENTIALLY                
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY WITH                   
ENHANCED MIXING PER TIGHTER GRADIENT. APPEARS THIS TIMEFRAME COULD              
FEATURE THE FIRST FIRE CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS               
BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE DRYING ENSUING...WHILE SURFACE             
HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY HOLDS LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WHILE WINDS              
COME UP PER TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.                       
HIGH TEMPERATURES REALLY THE MAIN STORY WITH SPRINGLIKE READINGS                
RETURNING GIVEN STRONG PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF PLAINS              
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A FEW POTENTIAL ROADBLOCKS REMAIN WHICH COULD                 
RESULT IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. APPEARS WARMTH MAY                   
INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED ON WEDNESDAY AS LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS                  
TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESENT OVER                
EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF INSOLATION GIVEN DRY                 
POCKET FIRMLY IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO READINGS...                 
THOUGH LIKELY ONLY IN THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION JUST TAKING HOLD.             
THURSDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WARM FRONT MIXES                   
NORTHWARD WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MIGHT SEE A FEW              
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT PER RENEWED THETA-E ADVECTION             
AND BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...            
HOWEVER GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE                     
WEST...APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRONT WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH              
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS TIME.               
HENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60                          
SOUTH...THOUGH COULD EASILY BE MUCH WARMER PENDING PLACEMENT/TIMING             
OF BOUNDARY.                                                                    
COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE THURSDAY AS LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS              
GO AROUND AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH             
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. FORCING ALSO APPEARS RATHER             
GOOD WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE OPENS UP AND                 
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES WITH STRONG FRONT CRUISING EAST INTO            
THE LAKES. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT            
AND WHILE I DO FORESEE A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE                  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALSO EXPECT TIMING CHANGES OVER THE COMING            
DAYS.                                                                           
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 130 PM.                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITHIN THE LOW               
LEVELS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING                               
HOURS...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS.                        
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SCT-BKN090              
DECK...MOSTLY AFFECTING PLN...WITH A MORE SCT SCENARIO AT APN.  A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT              
LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                      
NORTHWARD...AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE                   
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR                
NORTH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY              
IN PLACE.                                                                       
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH EARLY                  
      SATURDAY MORNING...MIZ041-042.                                            
     FLOOD WARNING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ042.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
819 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...HAVE BEEN TIMING THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL AFFECT TVC               
FIRST AND THEN PLN AND APN. THE TIMING LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM            
AND RUC MODELS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE ACTUAL TAFS. SO HAVE LEFT THE               
FIRST 6 HOURS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE LOWEST CLOUDS LOOK TO              
STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE             
OVER THE N LOWER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON              
ON SATURDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.                      
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM                                                
HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS               
AFTERNOON. AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE            
(PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA                   
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE             
CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING PER SATELLITE                   
TRENDS. TO THE SOUTH...ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY PRODUCING PERSISTENT RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE (MORE              
ON THAT BELOW). TO THE WEST...STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSS              
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE PASSING                   
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.                                                    
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING A DIFFERENT              
SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS...SPECIFICALLY             
IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH. 12Z                 
NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE BULLISH...DRAWING A SUBSTANTIAL                 
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS               
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CERTAINLY                   
APPEARS TO BE THE TREND AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING WALL             
OF STRATUS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN               
AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THUS TRENDED THE                 
FORECAST TOWARD THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF THINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH                   
SATURDAY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME PRECIP              
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BUT             
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS A BIT SHALLOW WITH THE MOISTURE -                    
PRIMARILY WARMER THAN 0C. IF ANYTHING...CAN SEE SOME DRIZZLE                    
DEVELOPING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN                 
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NRN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE               
NRN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROWS               
YET ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST. DECENT POCKET OF ASSOCIATED               
MID LEVEL QG UPWARD FORCING SWEEPING THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE                
STATE LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING/COMBINED WITH BETTER MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE               
RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. SO PLAN IS TO            
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY.                 
MAY GET LOCKED INTO THE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY                 
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR/RIDGING LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE            
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS               
OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                             
HYDRO CONCERNS...USGS GAGE READINGS ON THE TOBACCO AND RIFLE RIVERS             
NOW STARTING TO FALL BUT STILL ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE ON THE RIFLE                
RIVER NEAR STERLING AND TOBACCO RIVER NEAR BEAVERTON. WILL TAKE                 
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TO GET LEVELS              
BACK DOWN AGAIN. THUS...CURRENT FLOOD HEADLINES WILL CONTINUES.                 
ADAM                                                                            
TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONT TO AGAIN MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS              
AFTER BUCKLING NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW             
NIGHT. THIS WILL SCOUR ANY REMNANT CLOUDS (IF THERE ARE ANY BY THIS             
POINT) AS DRY PUNCH ADVECTS THROUGH THE LAKES...AND BRING A                     
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM PRECIP CHANCES. PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE SO HIGH             
WILL SLIDE EAST QUICKLY BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO AGAIN                 
BUCKLE NORTHWARD AS OPENING UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS              
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. DRY AIR INITIALLY QUITE ENTRENCHED AND THUS             
EXPECT A TIGHT RH GRADIENT TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LIFTS                         
NORTHWARD...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP. WHERE THIS LINE WILL             
EVENTUALLY BE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL            
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS WARM              
FRONT GETS CLOSER AND SATURATION MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR.                          
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE              
ACTION AS WEAKENING BUT STILL POTENT UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO WESTERN              
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
RATHER IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TO SATURATE                 
THINGS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG LIFTING              
WARM FRONT BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT.                 
INCREASING DIFLUENCE AND HELP FROM JET/WARM ADVECTION AND STEEPENING            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER APPROACH OF COOL POOL SHOULD SUPPORT A                
DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA              
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO QUITE WARM CONDITIONS                 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE WEST MAKES ONLY              
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH AREA FALLING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND              
H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 11C UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.                        
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIP CHANCES DURING              
THIS PERIOD. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY              
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH                 
LIKELY ON A SLOW PACE AS FORCING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AND FRONT RUNS            
INTO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.            
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SEVERAL               
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER                 
RIDGE...THOUGH LATEST GFS APPEARS OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY FED-BACK            
WITH ITS SPURIOUS SHORTWAVE DEPICTIONS. WITH NEARLY STATIONARY                  
BOUNDARY BECOMING THE FOCUSING MECHANISM AND PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE            
IN PLACE GIVEN PWATS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A NICE              
STRETCH OF WEATHER. ANY REMNANT PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY              
EVENING AS LOW/MID LEVELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY WITH EASTWARD ADVANCE OF              
SFC/UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH               
COMING ONSHORE AND ADVANCING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL INCITE DEEP                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE                
REGION VERSUS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. THUS...AFTER A POTENTIALLY                
CHILLY START WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY WITH                   
ENHANCED MIXING PER TIGHTER GRADIENT. APPEARS THIS TIMEFRAME COULD              
FEATURE THE FIRST FIRE CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS               
BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE DRYING ENSUING...WHILE SURFACE             
HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY HOLDS LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WHILE WINDS              
COME UP PER TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.                       
HIGH TEMPERATURES REALLY THE MAIN STORY WITH SPRINGLIKE READINGS                
RETURNING GIVEN STRONG PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF PLAINS              
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A FEW POTENTIAL ROADBLOCKS REMAIN WHICH COULD                 
RESULT IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. APPEARS WARMTH MAY                   
INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED ON WEDNESDAY AS LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS                  
TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESENT OVER                
EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF INSOLATION GIVEN DRY                 
POCKET FIRMLY IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO READINGS...                 
THOUGH LIKELY ONLY IN THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION JUST TAKING HOLD.             
THURSDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WARM FRONT MIXES                   
NORTHWARD WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MIGHT SEE A FEW              
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT PER RENEWED THETA-E ADVECTION             
AND BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...            
HOWEVER GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE                     
WEST...APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRONT WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH              
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS TIME.               
HENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 60                          
SOUTH...THOUGH COULD EASILY BE MUCH WARMER PENDING PLACEMENT/TIMING             
OF BOUNDARY.                                                                    
COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE THURSDAY AS LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS              
GO AROUND AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH             
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. FORCING ALSO APPEARS RATHER             
GOOD WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE OPENS UP AND                 
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES WITH STRONG FRONT CRUISING EAST INTO            
THE LAKES. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT            
AND WHILE I DO FORESEE A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE                  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALSO EXPECT TIMING CHANGES OVER THE COMING            
DAYS.                                                                           
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 130 PM.                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITHIN THE LOW               
LEVELS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING                               
HOURS...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS.                        
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SCT-BKN090              
DECK...MOSTLY AFFECTING PLN...WITH A MORE SCT SCENARIO AT APN.  A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT              
LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                      
NORTHWARD...AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE                   
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR                
NORTH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY              
IN PLACE.                                                                       
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH EARLY                  
      SATURDAY MORNING...MIZ041-042.                                            
     FLOOD WARNING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ042.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS              
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THIS FAST FLOW...SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST             
IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT/WRN ND. RADARS                
SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF ECHOES ACROSS ND/SRN MANITOBA ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS THAT HAVE                   
INDICATED -SHRA IN NRN ND/SE SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA TODAY. WELL              
TO THE W... SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES 2-3 DAYS               
AGO OVER THE W COAST AND BECAME A MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST            
S OF AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE A BIT             
AS IT MOVES TO UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT MORNING. WITH AIRMASS                 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RELATIVELY DRY PER 12Z KBIS/KINL                 
SOUNDINGS...IT BECOMES THE TYPICAL QUESTION OF WHETHER FORCING WILL             
BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE DRY COLUMN TO ALLOW PCPN TO REACH THE              
SFC. BEST COMBINATION OF LOW CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ASCENT              
ON THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES PASSES ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA...BUT             
ANOTHER AREA OF MOIST ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA             
AS WELL. THE NRN AREA WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN AS             
IT WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF STRENGTHENING JET ASSOCIATED WITH            
SHORTWAVE. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME               
THE DRY AIR...BUT GIVEN MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO BE                   
STRONGER...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE N TONIGHT. NAM/GFS            
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID...AND SFC TEMPS SHOULD              
STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO PREVENT FZRA. OVER THE ERN FCST                     
AREA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO               
THE S MAY SLIP INTO THAT AREA (NOTE SATURATED PROFILE ON 12Z KDVN               
SOUNDING). WILL THUS ALSO INTRODUCE CHC POPS OVER THE E AS WELL.                
WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE NCNTRL/E EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...WITH              
MODELS INDICATING AGGRESSIVE DRYING THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN SAT IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE...WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT NICELY FROM             
W TO E DURING THE DAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA                 
DURING THE AFTN...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE BY MID/LATE AFTN              
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST               
SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR.                    
.LONG TERM(SAT NIGHT THROUGH THU)                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE SUN INTO MON AND                
AGAIN BY WED/THU.                                                               
SAT NIGHT...WITH THE SFC RDG...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY                  
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA(PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH) AND LIGHT WINDS              
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND...A BIT             
BLO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SE                 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE FAR WEST COULD BRING CLIMBING TEMPS BEFORE                 
SUNRISE.                                                                        
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING A                 
SHRTWV...REMNANTS OF THE BAHA/SW US CLOSED LOW...INTO THE WRN GREAT             
LAKES. THE UKMET WAS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS               
AND THE WEAKER/FASTER CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM. FCST GENERALLY LEANED                
TOWARD THE GFS. INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP WITH                   
STRONG WAA AS THE 925-850 MB THETA-E RDG ARC INTO W UPR MI AND                  
SPREAD E LATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORCING MOVES IN TOWARD 06Z/MON.            
EVEN THOUGH SHRTWV PATH WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE WRN CWA...DECENT                
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV SPREADS ACRS UPPER MI...SUPPORTING GOING                
LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...STRONG SRLY                
FLOW(900-850 MB WINDS AOA 40 KT) BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE                
AREA MAY PUSH 900-850 MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE. 900 MB               
ELEVATED CAPE INTO THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE WILL DECENT CHANCE FOR                
TSTMS. EVEN WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...THE                      
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT GENERAL PCPN AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN AN            
A HALF INCH.                                                                    
MON...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO END OVER THE WEST EARLY AND E BY AFTERNOON            
AS THE SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH AND SHRTWV RDGING/QVECTOR DIV BUILD               
IN. SOME SUNSHINE WITH WRLY FLOW AND 900-925 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 10C             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 60 OR THE LOW 60S...CLOSE TO              
RECORD HIGHS. FOR NOW...KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...AT OR                  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF READINGS                  
ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.                  
TUE-FRI...MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER WRN CONUS TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE              
CNTRL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP THOUGH             
BY LATE IN THE WEEK IN HANDLING THE TROF. THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND                   
ENSEMBLE ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SHRTWV AND SFC                      
TROF/FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL LOW              
LINGERS TO THE NW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROF TO THE WEST. EVEN WITH              
THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES STILL SEEM WARRANTED GIVEN            
POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE IN WITH DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON(SHORT TERM)                                                             
JLB(LONG TERM)                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA...AND NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI.             
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS             
VIEWED ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 750-800MB) PER 12Z RUC. ASCENT SLACKENS             
DURING THE AFTN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOME LATER IN               
THE AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND MORNING TAMDAR             
SOUNDING FROM KSAW SUPPORT RAISING HIGH TEMPS. KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS              
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F IF MIXED LAYER BUILDS TO               
850MB WHILE KSAW SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S. RAISED                 
HIGHS TO THE LWR END OF THOSE VALUES GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. TEMPS              
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER LIGHT SRLY                 
FLOW...AND THE COOLING SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF THE ERN FCST                 
AREA. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EXCEPT FOR AREAS             
E OF MARQUETTE AS SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THRU THE AFTN TO               
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT THERE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)...                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN TONIGHT.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NEXT SHORTWAVE             
IN THE FAST FLOW IS OVER NW ND. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE            
WERE SPREADING ACROSS NRN MN...AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD              
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. RADARS SHOW A DECENT AREA OF                  
RETURNS ACROSS FAR NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SFC OBS THAT                   
REPORT VSBY ARE SPARSE IN THAT AREA...SO DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH             
PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST FEW HRS...A COUPLE           
OF OBS IN SRN MANITOBA HAVE REPORTED 1-4SM IN -SN. WELL TO THE                  
W...SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES A DAY OR TWO AGO               
OVER THE W COAST HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST S             
OF CA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE                 
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE E...CROSSING UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR                
BTWN 03Z-09Z. BASED ON THE DARKENING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...             
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE THAN THE WEAKER NAM. LATEST            
RUC AND 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT THE GFS. OVERLAP OF                  
MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
(CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 20MB) ON THE 290K SFC (AROUND                 
700MB) LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT IN NE                 
ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED              
FARTHER S...BUT AIRMASS IS DRIER THERE. LATEST RUC IS VERY SIMILAR              
TO THE GFS WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF QVECTOR                                
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU 06Z. FORCING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS            
TO SHIFT THRU NE MN BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI/LAKE                
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...THE                     
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL TEND            
TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ON THE            
OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE            
MAY NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS MODELS INDICATE. SO...SITUATION IS                    
CERTAINLY STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER NW LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. FCST WETBULB ZERO PROFILES                    
INDICATE ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS WILL BE SNOW.                                     
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE...CANADIAN/GFS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND               
850MB ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. SO THERE                
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.                  
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID               
50S. HOWEVER...SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER NEAR AND                   
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND OVER THE NCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT            
THRU THE DAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                                
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
CONTINUITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR CURRENTLY MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL             
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ALONG CANADA/UNITED STATES BORDER. IN RECENT            
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF SHORE OF BRITISH               
COLUMBIA WAS TO MOVE EAST AND ARRIVE OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES FRI              
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO...THE WAVE WAS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT            
CAME EAST. NOW...A TREND IS EMERGING THAT RESULTS IN STRONGER WAVE              
NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL SAT. NAM MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS IDEA WHILE            
UKMET/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE WEAKER. SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH                     
DIVERGENCE FM RRQ OF H3 OVR ONTARIO SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID             
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FM GFS AND EVEN NAM ARE VERY DRY BLO H85            
SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS            
AND LIGHT WINDS SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SFC...RIDGE                   
DRIFTING OVER UPR LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH              
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE                
THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE WITH A GOOD PORTION OF CWA EXPERIENCING MIN            
TEMPS BLO FREEZING.                                                             
UPR LOW OVR SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO PLAINS SUN AND LIFTS TOWARD UPR               
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
HERE. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH TROUGH EJECTION AND WAS NOT PREFERRED             
DUE TO EVEN STRONGER KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELLING INTO WEST               
COAST AS EARLY AS SUN. LARGE AREA OF H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS ECLIPSING AN INCH (250-300 PCT OF NORMAL)              
ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PCPN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WARMING H85 TEMPS                
COMBINED WITH COOL H5 TEMPS AROUND -15C RESULT IN STEEPENING MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT               
AND UPR TROUGH DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHICH IS             
WHEN BEST COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 00Z GFS                
EVEN INDICATED SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MON EVENING. ECMWF MUCH QUICKER WITH FROPA.                
ALTHOUGH MOST PCPN WILL BE DONE BY MON NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE              
IN GRIDS FOR TUE AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PER HPC AND              
H5 COLD POOL (-20C AT H5) ALSO ROTATES THROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING BOTH              
ALOFT AND AT SFC FOR WED...THEN DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVR            
MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY AT             
SFC...LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS                
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING             
E ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. SHARP DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. 00Z/12Z KINL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE                   
INCOMING DRY AIR NICELY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 0.68 TO              
0.15 INCHES...AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-25C             
FROM 840MB TO 550MB. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE              
STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS WERE BEING AIDED BY 4-5MB/3HR PRES RISE MAX             
THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. CORE OF PRES RISES            
IS NOW OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI...SO STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE JUST ABOUT PASSED THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING ESE THRU             
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ARE                 
ALREADY STREAMING E THRU ND INTO NRN MN.                                        
INHERITED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND ONLY REQUIRES MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND               
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...MAINLY ACROSS THE N...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB                
THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATOCU SHOULD BE               
GONE BY MID/LATE AFTN...BUT ALREADY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIPPING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W. AS               
FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 800-850MB ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S ARE ON TRACK OVER THE W AND N. WNW               
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL. AS FOR                
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW             
MORE HRS WITH EXPECTATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS             
PRES RISE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MN                  
DRIFTS E.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERNS FOR 18Z TAFS INVOLVE AREA OF STRATUS MIGRATING                    
NORTHWARD THIS AFTN AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING.               
NAM AND RUC BOTH POINT TOWARD MSP/RNH/EAU BEING MOST                            
AFFECTED...WITH MSP SEEING THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...IT                 
WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLDS AT AXN AND STC AND THE                  
INFUSION OF LOW LEVEL MSTR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PUT SOME MVFR              
VSBYS IN AT AXN DURING THE FAVORED TIME NEAR DAWN...BUT WITH MID                
CLDS HANGING AROUND STC LONGER...KEPT THIS SITE VFR. RWF WILL NOT               
HAVE THE MID/UPR CLDS TO DEAL WITH SO INCLUDED CONSIDERABLE VSBY                
RESTRICTIONS OVRNGT AND EARLY MRNG.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
IN THE NEAR TERM...A SPLIT UPPER AIRFLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL                  
PROVIDE SOME MILD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURE...SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED                
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER BAJA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDS            
FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO                
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A                  
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL ALSO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT             
OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OR HAS BEEN THE                
MAIN FOCUS FOR TSRA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE              
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SEEN LITTLE              
TOO FAST.                                                                       
AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS             
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO                  
ADVANCE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE                 
INDICATING AT LEAST SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN                  
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST               
TO BE QUITE STRONG BY MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.              
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED              
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE                
TORNADOES.  QUESTION...IS WHETHER MUCH OF OUR CONVECTION...WILL STAY            
ELEVATED OR WILL IT BECOME SURFACE BASE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS                   
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED.  RIGHT NOW...STORM PREDICTION               
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE CWA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY.                
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER            
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES            
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN U.S. BEFORE                  
LIFTING NORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.                               
MADE SOME CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAISED TEMPS OVER THE NEXT             
FEW DAYS...BOTH MIN/MAX TEMPS AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST HALF             
OF CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING UPPER RIDGE      
OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CUT OFF LOW LEVEL GULF                 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTH AND         
PUT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM          
THE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS         
TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE 70S BY NOON BEFORE       
REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON./17/                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI/HBG            
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS            
THE WHOLE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK                
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE                    
3KFT./17/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER AN                
UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CONTINUING OUR LONG ROUND OF DRY WEATHER.                
SHOULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS        
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS LIFTED OVER OUR THE SOUTHEAST                   
ZONES...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CURRENT               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER              
CHANGES TO THE ZONES./17/                                                       
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG           
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z FRIDAY./17/                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG            
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. VFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z EACH MORNING. /22/            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 22                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO LESSEN CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE                 
AREA TONIGHT AS LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA HAS                  
QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER SRN MO. HAVE ALSO CUT BACK ON THE QPF                   
GRIDS OVER THE SRN COUNTIES BASED ON THIS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO               
BE SOME CHC OF TSRA BY 09-12Z AS THE RUC SHOWS A MODEST INCREASE                
IN INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW                
LEVEL JET. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW WILL BE OVER THE NRN                 
COUNTIES WHICH IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONT.                       
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.                                 
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN IL            
INTO CENTRAL IA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE               
WEEKEND. A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST              
KS/SOUTHWEST MO INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS                   
CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IL.                                          
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE               
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE                
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND                   
EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A DEEP UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN             
U.S. EARLY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO              
SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE, A DEEP                 
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. A                
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA               
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE ON TRACK, A COLD FRONT WILL             
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...S-SWLY SFC WNDS WL CONT OVR THE CWA AS THE                   
WRMFNT HAS PUSHED N OF THE CWA. THE ERN END OF THIS FRONT MAY                   
ACTUALLY SINK BACK SWD INTO UIN SAT AFTN AS A SFC RDG BLDS SEWD                 
THRU THE GRT LKS REGION INTO THE OH VLY. LOOKING AT MDL QPF IT                  
APRS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AT THE                 
UIN TAF SITE ON SAT AS THIS FRONT BACKDOORS TOWARDS UIN AND A WK                
SHRTWV TROF MOVES NEWD INTO IA SAT AFTN. MAY BE SCT SHRA OR TSRA                
FURTHER S WITH AT LEAST WK LOW-MID LVL WAA ACRS AREA BUT WILL                   
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. MDL RH PROGS CONT TO INDICATE                    
PLENTY OF RH BWTN 850 MB AND 700 MB LT TGT INTO SAT. SHOULD CONT                
TO HAVE STRATUS IN UIN LT TGT WITH LGT FOG DVLPG. FOG HAS RECENTLY              
DVLPD IN THE STL METRO AREA WITH MID-HI LVL CLOUD CVR THINNING                  
OUT AND PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE LOW LVL CLOUD CVR. WILL MENTION AT              
LEAST LGT FOG IN STL AND SUS LT TGT INTO SAT MRNG AND MAY ALSO                  
MENTION LGT FOG DVLPG IN COU AS WELL AS LOW LVL CLOUD DECK OVR COU              
IS SHOWING SOME CLRG TO THE SOUTH ON THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP.                 
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ST LOUIS        59  78  63  79 /  30  40  10  20                                
QUINCY          57  72  55  77 /  40  70  30  30                                
COLUMBIA        60  77  59  80 /  30  40  20  30                                
JEFFERSON CITY  60  77  59  80 /  20  40  20  30                                
SALEM           57  76  58  78 /  30  40  10  20                                
FARMINGTON      59  78  58  79 /  20  30  10  20                                
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
905 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE LAST OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT OUR              
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z...SO HAVE ALREADY LOWERED                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL             
BE WATCHING STORMS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS CLOSELY. GIVEN                   
CURRENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR               
CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF                 
CURRENT STORM AREA WITH RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER              
OUR AREA...BUT PLAN TO KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LACK OF                
SURFACE FOCUS AND MAIN LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING TO OUR WEST.                     
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH LIMITED DIURNAL                
RANGE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.                                     
TERRY                                                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...//215 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                           
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH THE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE               
WEST TO EAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED             
INTO BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.                    
ORIGINATION POINT OF CONVECTION IN SE KS/NE OK HAS SHIFTED VERY                 
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT WAS ONCE A SW TO NE                    
ORIENTATION HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TOWARDS A W-E AXIS...PARTIALLY               
DUE TO A SLIGHT VEER IN THE 925/850MB WIND DIRECTIONS PER THE LATEST            
RUC INITIALIZATIONS.                                                            
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO THE EVOLUTION              
AND MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT...              
GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS EASTWARD AND                       
NORTHWARD.                                                                      
GAGAN/FOSTER                                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.             
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND             
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW IN THE                     
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE            
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE               
LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OR            
STRENGTHEN WHICH WE MAY BE SEEING THE ORIGINS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MISSOURI.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGING INTO THE             
OZARKS THIS WEEKEND AND THUS KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO               
THE WEST OF THE AREA.                                                           
ALL OF THE OZARKS REGION AND OSAGE PLAINS WILL BE ENVELOPED BY THE              
WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. IF                
NEAR FULL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER OR              
EVEN MIDDLE 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                 
NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA                
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BETTER              
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF             
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES.                                                                        
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE            
FORECAST PERIOD. HAD SOME CONCERNS ABOUT FOG TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL              
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP AROUND            
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS MIXED                 
ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.                                                  
HAVE CARRIED VICINITY THUNDER AFTER 18Z AS MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE               
REGION DESTABILIZED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR NOW THINK MAJORITY              
OF STORMS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE                   
AIRPORTS THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                       
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
835 CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                         
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED                 
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST              
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...MAY STILL             
GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE              
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
ON THE 300K SURFACE IS THE STRONGEST.                                           
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
415 PM...                                                                       
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE               
COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI              
NOW TRAINING JUST SOUTH OF LINN/BUTLER/BATES COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT              
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE KC METRO AREA WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS           
TRAILING BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARDS TOPEKA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO             
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR H7 AS NOTED VIA RUC                  
MOISTURE PROG. AS THIS SPREADS EASTWARD...MAY SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL              
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE               
MO/IA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK NOTED VIA        
VIS SATELLITE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF              
CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.              
HOWEVER...APPEARS CORE OF LLJ WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MORE DIFFUSE            
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...HAVE EDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER         
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT               
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP PLACEMENT.                                          
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. TOUGH TO GAGE PRECIP EPISODES WITH                 
SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 60KT H5 JET                   
PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
BELIEVE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST CLOSER            
TO STRONGER JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING              
RECEIVED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY             
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF OLD BOUNDARY.                                     
UPPER LOW TO THEN SWING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY           
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF JET DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...APPEARS JET AXIS WILL ALIGN FROM CENTRAL IA                
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...DRYLINE WILL PUSH            
INTO EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL A BIT FAR OUT...BUT IF DYNAMICS COME            
TOGETHER AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS ARE REALIZED...SOME SEVERE               
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM MOIST PATTERN AS SOUTHERN FLOW              
CONTINUES WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH.                             
DEROCHE                                                                         
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MON THROUGH FRI)...                                        
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.               
SEGMENTS OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST               
OVER THE EASTERN RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED                
MID/UPPER WEAKNESS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/GULF STATES.             
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER               
SYSTEM...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCING              
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED LOW END SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT              
WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                   
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT                
WEEK...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD              
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWER AND                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
STOFLET                                                                         
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREA OF CEILINGS FROM 1000-1500 FEET FROM MKC TO STJ SLOWLY                     
MIGRATING NORTH. CEILINGS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY             
METRO. NOCTURNAL COOLING IN A MOIST AIR MASS IS MAKING CEILING                  
FORECASTING TRICKY. MAY NEED TO RAISE CEILINGS TO VFR AT 04-07Z IF              
IMPROVING TREND CONTINUES. CANNOT DISCOUNT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS            
FROM 10-15Z.                                                                    
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
414 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (FRI THROUGH SUN)...                                                
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE               
COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI NOW          
TRAINING JUST SOUTH OF LINN/BUTLER/BATES COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT                  
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE KC METRO AREA WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS           
TRAILING BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARDS TOPEKA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE          
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR H7 AS NOTED VIA RUC MOISTURE            
PROG. AS THIS SPREADS EASTWARD...MAY SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS               
DEVELOP ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE               
MO/IA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK NOTED VIA        
VIS SATELLITE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF              
CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.              
HOWEVER...APPEARS CORE OF LLJ WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MORE DIFFUSE            
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...HAVE EDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER         
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT               
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP PLACEMENT.                                          
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. TOUGH TO GAGE PRECIP EPISODES WITH                 
SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 60KT H5 JET                   
PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
BELIEVE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST CLOSER            
TO STRONGER JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING              
RECEIVED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY             
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF OLD BOUNDARY.                                     
UPPER LOW TO THEN SWING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY           
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF JET DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...APPEARS JET AXIS WILL ALIGN FROM CENTRAL IA                
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...DRYLINE WILL PUSH            
INTO EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL A BIT FAR OUT...BUT IF DYNAMICS COME            
TOGETHER AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS ARE REALIZED...SOME SEVERE               
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM MOIST PATTERN AS SOUTHERN FLOW              
CONTINUES WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH.                             
DEROCHE                                                                         
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MON THROUGH FRI)...                                        
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.               
SEGMENTS OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST               
OVER THE EASTERN RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED                
MID/UPPER WEAKNESS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/GULF STATES.             
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER               
SYSTEM...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCING              
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED LOW END SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT              
WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                   
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT                
WEEK...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD              
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWER AND                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
STOFLET                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOST OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE TAF SITES AND IS             
NOW MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PLEASANTON TO SEDALIA LINE.            
OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO           
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WITH FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING                 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLOUD DECK               
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS                 
ALLOWED SOME BREAKS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST             
NB WITH HIGHER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO              
BRING IN A BIT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOME MIXING TAKES            
SHAPE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS VARIANCE OF              
CLOUD DECK AND EXTENT OF MIXING REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN                         
ADDITION...FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN COUNTING WITH CONTINUING DIFFICULTY IN         
PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP. LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM WITH LOW              
CONFIDENCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.           
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHER                  
CHANCES DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH THE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE               
WEST TO EAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED             
INTO BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.                    
ORIGINATION POINT OF CONVECTION IN SE KS/NE OK HAS SHIFTED VERY                 
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT WAS ONCE A SW TO NE                    
ORIENTATION HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TOWARDS A W-E AXIS...PARTIALLY               
DUE TO A SLIGHT VEER IN THE 925/850MB WIND DIRECTIONS PER THE LATEST            
RUC INITIALIZATIONS.                                                            
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO THE EVOLUTION              
AND MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT...              
GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS EASTWARD AND                       
NORTHWARD.                                                                      
GAGAN/FOSTER                                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.             
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND             
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW IN THE                     
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE            
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE               
LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OR            
STRENGTHEN WHICH WE MAY BE SEEING THE ORIGINS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MISSOURI.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGING INTO THE             
OZARKS THIS WEEKEND AND THUS KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO               
THE WEST OF THE AREA.                                                           
ALL OF THE OZARKS REGION AND OSAGE PLAINS WILL BE ENVELOPED BY THE              
WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. IF                
NEAR FULL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER OR              
EVEN MIDDLE 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                 
NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA                
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BETTER              
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF             
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES.                                                                        
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL HAS QUICKLY EXPANDED EASTWARD...COMING             
IN ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AT SGF. RADAR TRENDS AND                 
SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR FROM JLN TO             
SGF WILL BE IN FOR A WET AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE                    
EXPECTED. CIG/VIS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CELLS/DOWNPOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
TIMING THE ENDING OF THIS RAINFALL IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC AND HAVE              
KEPT PREDOMINATE TSRA AT BOTH JLN AND SGF THROUGH THE LATE                      
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE WEST TO EAST AXIS            
OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST.                                        
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.                    
SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...CONTINUED 30-40KT WINDS              
IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST OFF THE SFC WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS FROM              
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS              
MIXING BEGINS.                                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH THE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE               
WEST TO EAST. HAVE ONCE AGAIN UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                                                        
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED INTO BROAD                
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. ORIGINATION POINT             
OF CONVECTION IN SE KS/NE OK HAS SHIFTED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST              
SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT WAS ONCE A SW TO NE ORIENTATION HAS SHIFTED A               
BIT MORE TOWARDS A W-E AXIS...PARTIALLY DUE TO A SLIGHT VEER IN THE             
925/850MB WIND DIRECTIONS PER THE LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS.                   
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONTINUES FROM CHEROKEE COUNTY INTO LAWRENCE              
COUNTY. STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR VIA             
CHEROKEE EMERGENCY MGMT AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING FOR THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS REPORTS SUCH AS THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WILL             
ALTER ORIENTATION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THE HWO WITH THE 100PM               
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH GREENE COUNTY            
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ELSEWHERE.                                                  
GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENCE             
AND THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS            
EASTWARD.  LOOKS LIKE A WET AFTERNOON.                                          
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
//1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                                                 
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                        
AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM NE MO THROUGH SE KS AND INTO NE TX. DECENT MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH                   
THETA-E RIDGING TO THE TUNE OF 328K NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY RESIDES            
OVER JASPER COUNTY MO AND CHEROKEE COUNTY MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE              
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS (AS VIEWED THROUGH THE                
LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS).                                                    
WITH PWS FROM THE MORNING KSGF SOUNDING AROUND 1.15 INCHES AND KIS              
IN EXCESS OF 30...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL                   
PRODUCTION. METARS ACROSS SE KS CORRELATE WELL TO 1-HR RAINFALL                 
RATES. WITH THE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO WHERE FLASH                
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.                             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN                    
ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHEAR AXIS               
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITH LOWER TOLERANCE FOR            
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                                                         
ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL HAS QUICKLY EXPANDED EASTWARD...COMING             
IN ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AT SGF. RADAR TRENDS AND                 
SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR FROM JLN TO             
SGF WILL BE IN FOR A WET AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE                    
EXPECTED. CIG/VIS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CELLS/DOWNPOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
TIMING THE ENDING OF THIS RAINFALL IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC AND HAVE              
KEPT PREDOMINATE TSRA AT BOTH JLN AND SGF THROUGH THE LATE                      
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE WEST TO EAST AXIS            
OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST.                                        
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.                    
SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...CONTINUED 30-40KT WINDS              
IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST OFF THE SFC WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS FROM              
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS              
MIXING BEGINS.                                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                        
AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM NE MO THROUGH SE KS AND INTO NE TX. DECENT MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH                   
THETA-E RIDGING TO THE TUNE OF 328K NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY RESIDES            
OVER JASPER COUNTY MO AND CHEROKEE COUNTY MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE              
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS (AS VIEWED THROUGH THE                
LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS).                                                    
WITH PWS FROM THE MORNING KSGF SOUNDING AROUND 1.15 INCHES AND KIS              
IN EXCESS OF 30...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL                   
PRODUCTION. METARS ACROSS SE KS CORRELATE WELL TO 1-HR RAINFALL                 
RATES. WITH THE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO WHERE FLASH                
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.                             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN                    
ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHEAR AXIS               
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITH LOWER TOLERANCE FOR            
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                                                         
ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.                                        
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
//303 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                                                  
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF                 
YEAR...NO COLD FRONTS OR MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS             
OVERHEAD.  HOWEVER...DUE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GULF                          
INFLUX...SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE             
OFFING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST             
CONCERN IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS PRECIP CHANCES IN BOTH THE                
SHORT AND LONG TERM TIME FRAMES.                                                
ONE ITEM TO NOTE...BECAUSE OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF               
THE GULF OF MEXICO...A RATHER HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FROM            
THE GULF INTO MID AMERICA.  DRY ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC REGIONS             
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP RICH MOISTURE FROM MATERIALIZING WITHIN THE              
WESTERN GULF SOURCE REGION.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LONG PERIOD OF             
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIMITED FOR                  
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                            
A SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA                   
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND MISSOURI OZARKS REGION.  A BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS             
AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE...AND IS CORRELATED WITH                
LARGE SCALE LIFT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF JET STREAM LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.             
A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME                  
APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL                      
DIFFLUENCE...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROFILER                  
NETWORK WHEN ANALYZING 250 MB WIND VECTOR MEASUREMENTS.                         
ONE OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING EXTREME                 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  DUE TO LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE               
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING             
STRIKES.  TIMING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND HOW IT EVOLVES WITH             
RESPECT TO AREAL COVERAGE WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN FOR                  
TODAYS PERIOD.                                                                  
EXTRAPOLATION WITH THE CLUSTERS CURRENT MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT AFTER            
12Z...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  RAIN WILL LIKELY END IN THE SPRINGFIELD METRO            
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 - 8AM.  THEREFORE WILL ADJUST MORNING POPS              
TO REPRESENT THIS EXTRAPOLATION...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS               
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN TAPERING THE GRID TO SLIGHT             
CHANCES OUT WEST.  IT`S LIKELY THAT THE CLUSTER WILL LOSE SOME OF               
IT`S LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH NOCTURNAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.               
BOTH THE WRF AND THE GFS INDICATE A SECOND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO             
IMPACT THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...THE ONLY KINEMATIC                   
MECHANISM TO CAUSE THIS APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER                 
DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR ABILENE TEXAS.                
HOW THIS FORECASTED BAND OF FORCING WILL IMPACT THE OZARKS REMAINS              
VERY QUESTIONABLE.  QPF FIELDS FROM THE WRF AND GFS ARE VERY                    
INCONSISTENT AND NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.  HOWEVER MOS GUIDANCE                   
SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS.                                      
WILL ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POP GRID TO 50 POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY            
ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.  ONE ELEMENT THAT WE DO KNOW FOR SURE IS THAT              
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...WHICH              
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.  WITH EARLY MORNING                     
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...DESPITE CLOUD                 
COVER AND PRECIP READINGS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S IN MOST                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE BAJA LOW WILL FILL WHILE THE MAIN                
CIRCULATION SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS              
FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS              
EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT                
PROCESSES OCCUR BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL YIELD MORE AREAS OF             
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS                 
CORRIDOR.  RESIDUAL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE              
DAY ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CWA.  WILL KEEP ONGOING                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING IN THE GRIDS DUE TO SIGNALS FROM BOTH THE            
GFS AND WRF FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS PERIOD.                       
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CAN BE ANALYZED WITHIN               
MODEL DATA.  THEREFORE SINCE WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THIS EXTENDED                 
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                 
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
LONG TERM (MONDAY - THURSDAY)...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS...BASICALLY THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING FROM THE             
ONGOING BAJA CYCLONE IS SUGGESTED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA            
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  NOT MUCH OF A RESPONSE OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AS             
THE OZARKS REMAINS UNDER SOUTHERN FLOW.  COOLING ALOFT MAY PROMOTE              
INCREASED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP                
ONGOING TSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY LOOK GOOD AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP            
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS WILL REINFORCE THE                 
UNSETTLED PATTERN AND OFFER A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM                 
TEMPERATURES.  I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BY WARMING              
THESE GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED.  ECMWF HAS BEEN                 
PERFORMING THE BEST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH SHOWS ENERGY                
APPROACHING THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS NOT                
MUCH DIFFERENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION.  THEREFORE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO            
THESE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE NEEDED.                                 
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAF SITES WERE AMENDED EARLIER TO GAUGE RAINFALL/TS TIMING. IT                  
APPEARS THAT CIGS/VIS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE ON                   
AGAIN...OFF AGAIN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST            
AT JLN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT SGF...CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE                
LOWER IN TIMING DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF CONVECTION...AN               
ESTIMATED TIMING IS PROVIDED IN THE LATEST TAF TARGETING THE EARLY              
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                         
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
925 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SC/NC COAST                  
THIS EVENING AND EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS GA/SC. A WEAK LEE TROUGH              
WAS NOTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF NC... WITH A WEAKENING BACK DOOR                
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VA. A LARGE H5 RIDGE WAS NOW                   
WELL ESTABLISHED FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.                 
BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC FOR EARLY              
SPRING. THE MAIN POLAR JET WAS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.                 
THIS EVENING... MUCH MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER               
THAN EARLY SPRING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
AFTER DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 23 WERE ESTABLISHED AT THE                   
RALEIGH-DURHAM ASOS (83) AND GREENSBORO ASOS (81) FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON... THE TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COOL THIS EVENING... WITH            
THE LIGHT SSW BREEZE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MID EVENING                       
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE READINGS             
WERE 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE READINGS 24 HOURS BEFORE.                      
IR SATELLITE DATA AND 00Z/24 MARCH UPPER AIR INFORMATION INDICATE               
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY                  
FROM NORTHERN NC NORTH AND WESTWARD. THE LATEST RUC AND GFS                     
INDICATE A CONTINUED INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AREAS                 
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NC OVERNIGHT... WHICH APPEARS THAT IT IS               
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON.          
THE SURFACE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH EARLY SATURDAY...                
AND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL NC IN               
A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY.                             
LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE FALLING BELOW 60... BUT                
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 57-59 SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT CIRRUS TO                
INCREASE TO BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT.                                
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -BADGETT                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT             
THROUGH SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 10000 AND 15000 FT WILL                 
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE                       
THICKEST/MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH                
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS            
MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                        
THIS LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT SATURDAY WITH                     
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 18Z SATURDAY. LATE MARCH SUN COUPLED               
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL W-SW FLOW WILL RESULT              
IN AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE RECORD HIGH AT RDU WILL BE             
THREATENED (81 LAST SET IN 1978) WHILE THE RECORD HIGH AT GSO                   
APPEARS TO BE SAFE (86 SET IN 1929).                                            
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW WILL DROP                
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WEAK FRONTAL                  
ZONE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY JUST NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM               
AND STABLE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. CAN`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN IN THE WAY            
OF SPRINLES AS FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS              
BELOW 15%. TEMPERATURES REALLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH                    
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FAVOR THE WARMER            
GFS THICKNESSES AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AS BACKDOOR               
FROPA GENERALLY RESULTS IN AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT AS OPPOSE TO                   
INSTANTANEOUS CAA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS            
SUNDAY 77 TO 82...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN.                     
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...1034MB DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS               
SOUTH DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE               
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOW-LEVEL NE MARITIME               
FLOW SHOWING A SLOW SCATTERING OUT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO            
MONDAY MORNING. NOTICABLY COOLER MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S UNDER             
NE FLOW.                                                                        
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.                                            
A CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME SHEARED APART AS IT                    
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THE              
MEAN UPPER RIDGE UNDERGOES JUST ENOUGH DEAMPLIFICATION TO ALLOW YET             
ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THERE            
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERN PUSH            
FROM BUILDING PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES              
QUICKLY RETURN AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS. MEAN FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE WNW...THUS PROBABILITY OF                  
CENTRAL NC SEEING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CLOSE TO NIL WITH A PASSING              
SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH BACK-DOOR FRONT LATE TUESDAY.                     
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY...                      
POSITIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND 50 TO 55            
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                                             
AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                           
FLAT RIDGE ALOFT COUPLED WITH W-E ORIENTATED RIDGE AT THE SURFACE               
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.               
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE                        
TONIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE KINT, KGSO, KRDU AND KRWI TERMINALS              
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 12000-15000 FT. NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE                 
LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TONIGHT THEN VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT              
BY MID DAY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1223 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MADE A QUICK LATE MORNING UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED AND WORDED                      
FORECASTS...PRIMARILY TO REFRESH THEM. MORNING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY               
DISSIPATED BETWEEN 1330Z AND 1530Z...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY                       
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNAL CUMULUS                         
DEVELOPMENT WAS TAKING PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING TOWARD THE                     
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE                
AFTERNOON CORRESPOND WITH OBSERVED HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SUCH THAT ANTICIPATE                
ENOUGH CU TO PROVIDE FOR PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE                        
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RUC SUGGEST A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IN               
A SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS                 
NEAR CTZ AND GSB...BUT GIVEN THE FORECAST OF 700MB SUBSIDENCE...                
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND               
MID-LEVEL CAPPING EVIDENT ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...           
HAVE OPTED TO RAISE THE GRIDDED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OVER THOSE                   
AREAS WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST WORDING DRY. A WEAK 700MB                      
SHORTWAVE AS FORECAST BY THE RUC ALSO MOVES EAST DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON...AND IN ITS WAKE SUBSIDENCE MAY BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY.                
WITH THE CTZ TEMPERATURE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT 11 AM SUN                  
TIME (EST)...RAISED MAXES THERE TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.  OTHERWISE...               
HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD TO THE UPPER 70S               
TOWARD KFAY SHOULD WORK WELL. MAY BE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND                        
ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS GOOD MIXING FINALLY DEVELOPS...              
BUT ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS...IF ANY...TO BE IN NORTHERN                  
ZONES AND THEN TO 25 MPH AT BEST. LOCAL PROFILER DATA HAS SHOWN A               
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                    
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1046 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE               
ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DETAILS OF LOWER                
LEVEL CONDITIONS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS RELATED TO THE EXTENT OF               
NORTHERN STREAM AIRMASSES SURGING SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST            
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND AGAIN TOWARD THU.  HOW MUCH OF A             
MARITIME INFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON BROAD                   
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL GOVERN CLOUD COVER AND                      
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD                  
REMAIN STABLE ALOFT PRECLUDING MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NC.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE                 
DIURNAL RANGE FROM LOWS MAINLY LOWER 50S TO HIGH MAINLY LOWER 70S.              
-RFG                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 950 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...           
BUT THERE WAS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH...UNDER THE                   
25KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE...RESULTED IN                   
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT...THROUGH THE TRIAD...INTO THE              
WADESBORO AND ALBEMARLE AREAS. THE LATEST RUC 950MB MOISTURE                    
PATTERN FIT THE STRATUS WELL...AND THAT FORECAST KEPT THE STRATUS               
ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS IT ALREADY WAS...MIXING OUT DURING THE LATE                
MORNING. ALREADY...A COMBINATION OF VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE              
IMAGES WERE SHOWING SOME EROSION NEAR ROCKINGHAM AND THIS TREND                 
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CURRENTLY                          
ANTICIPATING SKIES TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...IF NOT MOSTLY                  
SUNNY...IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 17Z.                                               
MORNING KGSO RAOB SHOWS THAT...IF THE AIR BECOMES WELL MIXED...                 
TEMPERATURES COULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S. BASED ON MORNING 12Z                  
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...FULL SUN WOULD SHOW LOWER 70S TOWARD                   
KGSO. THINK THAT THE MID AND UPPER 60S FORECAST BY THE LATEST MET               
AND FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE TRIAD MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOL...AND IF              
THE CLOUDS MIX OUT AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RISE                
TO AROUND 70 THERE. UNDER GOOD SUN...THINK THE UPPER 70S FORECAST               
IN PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD WORK                
WELL. LOWERED MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY IN THE AXIS OF MOST              
DENSE CLOUDS FROM KRDU THROUGH KGSO AND KINT...BUT STILL LOOKING                
FOR READINGS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                         
KGSO 12Z SOUNDING...AGAIN...SHOWED 25KT WINDS JUST OFF OF THE                   
SURFACE AND AS MIXING OCCURS INITIALLY THERE COULD BE A GUST OR                 
TWO AROUND 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. DURING THE AFTERNOON...          
RUC AND THE NAM40 BOTH FORECAST DIMINISHING 925MB WINDS...MAINLY                
TO 10-20KTS...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH. THE NAM IS A LITTLE                
STRONGER THAN THE RUC...AND THE RADAR WIND PROFILES EARLY THIS                  
MORNING LEAN TOWARD THE STRONG NAM WITH ITS HIGHER WINDS                        
VERIFYING. OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN                    
NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANTICIPATE THE GRADUALLY FALLING 925MB WINDS                 
TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP                     
SURFACE WINDS FROM GETTING TOO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.                            
GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES ALREADY SENT AND WILL ISSUE                 
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND THE NOON HOUR TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND               
REFRESH THE GRIDDED AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS. -DJF                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 220 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
1035 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND                  
EARLY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SW OVER CENTRAL NC INTO NE              
GA... WITH A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL                 
NC. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.                     
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS                
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW                
WAA TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TODAY... DISLODGING THE RESIDUAL COOL              
STABLE AIR MASS BY LATE MORNING.                                                
THE FORECAST PROBLEM LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW                
WARM THE TEMPERATURES GO AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SW                    
RAISING HEIGHTS... THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY... AND              
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE.                                                 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                      
THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR AMOUNT OF                 
CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF LOW CEILINGS (CIGS). THE MODELS HAVE DONE A                
POOR JOB INITIALIZING THE CURRENT WEAK COOL AIR DAMMING EVENT.                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO MOIST IN DEPICTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS              
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... WHICH DID NOT OCCUR. THE 00Z/22 MARCH               
RAOBS INDICATED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER BECAME FULLY                      
SATURATED... EVEN OVER THE TYPICAL DAMMING REGION... LIKELY DUE IN              
PART TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THEREFORE... WE               
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH MANY             
AREAS ACTUALLY PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR. WHILE THERE WERE                  
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT... THERE WERE                
ONLY MID CLOUDS OBSERVED DOWN EAST AT 06Z/22.                                   
THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND                 
NORTH PIEDMONT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS NEAR                 
SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THESE AREAS...             
WHICH APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST              
5K FEET SEEN ON THE LATEST VAD... RAOBS... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.              
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAA FROM THE S-SW OVER TOP THE COOL                 
STABLE DOME (PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN PRODUCING BROKEN TO            
OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET. PARTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...             
WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE T/TD SPREAD NARROWS TO            
LESS THAN 5 DEGREES F BEFORE DAYBREAK.                                          
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OUT THIS MORNING... THE WAA WILL               
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL                  
ALLOW THE WEAK DAMMING EVENT TO SCOUR OUR RAPIDLY. EXPECT THE                   
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER GFS                 
MOS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND AMOUNT OF SUN                   
EXPECTED. WE WILL GO A CATEGORY ABOVE THE GFS MOS AND FORECAST                  
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN                
10 AND 20 MPH.                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EXPECT A WARM AND DRY PERIOD AS                  
THE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD... THE H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR SW... AND               
THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK                  
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY TO EDGE INTO NE NC SATURDAY... BUT A                    
PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH DOES NOT                  
SUPPORT MUCH PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT                       
(STRONGER) SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BACK DAYTIME TEMPS                  
MAYBE 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NE SECTIONS... DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
LOCATION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY              
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT A DRY FORECAST WILL                      
CONTINUE.                                                                       
TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... (BY              
15 TO 20 DEGREES THIS PERIOD). LOWS TONIGHT 52-57... HIGHS FRIDAY               
80-85... LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 55-60... AND HIGHS SATURDAY 80-85. SUNDAY            
HIGHS OF 74-84 EXPECTED NE TO SW... AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED              
LATER. -BADGETT                                                                 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
PATTERN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...             
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH MID ATLC REGION...GRADUALLY                   
SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK. THUS NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL SHIFT              
AROUND TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE              
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WILL INCREASE SKY PERCENTAGES IN GRIDS.                 
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... BUT NOT AS WARM AS THIS                   
WEEKEND. -RA                                                                    
AVIATION /05Z-24Z/...                                                           
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU OVER                   
WESTERN SECTIONS. THUS MVFR CIGS---1-3KFT  AT INT-GSO TAF SITES.                
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF TAF SITES                 
08Z-09Z. AFTER 09Z THROUGH 13Z AREAS OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT VSBYS             
3-5 MILES IN FOG. AFTER 14Z EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYERS TO MIX               
OUT BECOMING SCATTERED TO BKN LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR             
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS                 
THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. -RA                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1046 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE               
ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DETAILS OF LOWER                
LEVEL CONDITIONS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS RELATED TO THE EXTENT OF               
NORTHERN STREAM AIRMASSES SURGING SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST            
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND AGAIN TOWARD THU.  HOW MUCH OF A             
MARITIME INFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON BROAD                   
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL GOVERN CLOUD COVER AND                      
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD                  
REMAIN STABLE ALOFT PRECLUDING MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NC.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE                 
DIURNAL RANGE FROM LOWS MAINLY LOWER 50S TO HIGH MAINLY LOWER 70S.              
-RFG                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 950 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...           
BUT THERE WAS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH...UNDER THE                   
25KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE...RESULTED IN                   
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT...THROUGH THE TRIAD...INTO THE              
WADESBORO AND ALBEMARLE AREAS. THE LATEST RUC 950MB MOISTURE                    
PATTERN FIT THE STRATUS WELL...AND THAT FORECAST KEPT THE STRATUS               
ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS IT ALREADY WAS...MIXING OUT DURING THE LATE                
MORNING. ALREADY...A COMBINATION OF VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE              
IMAGES WERE SHOWING SOME EROSION NEAR ROCKINGHAM AND THIS TREND                 
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CURRENTLY                          
ANTICIPATING SKIES TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...IF NOT MOSTLY                  
SUNNY...IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 17Z.                                               
MORNING KGSO RAOB SHOWS THAT...IF THE AIR BECOMES WELL MIXED...                 
TEMPERATURES COULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S. BASED ON MORNING 12Z                  
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...FULL SUN WOULD SHOW LOWER 70S TOWARD                   
KGSO. THINK THAT THE MID AND UPPER 60S FORECAST BY THE LATEST MET               
AND FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE TRIAD MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOL...AND IF              
THE CLOUDS MIX OUT AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RISE                
TO AROUND 70 THERE. UNDER GOOD SUN...THINK THE UPPER 70S FORECAST               
IN PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD WORK                
WELL. LOWERED MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY IN THE AXIS OF MOST              
DENSE CLOUDS FROM KRDU THROUGH KGSO AND KINT...BUT STILL LOOKING                
FOR READINGS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                         
KGSO 12Z SOUNDING...AGAIN...SHOWED 25KT WINDS JUST OFF OF THE                   
SURFACE AND AS MIXING OCCURS INITIALLY THERE COULD BE A GUST OR                 
TWO AROUND 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. DURING THE AFTERNOON...          
RUC AND THE NAM40 BOTH FORECAST DIMINISHING 925MB WINDS...MAINLY                
TO 10-20KTS...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH. THE NAM IS A LITTLE                
STRONGER THAN THE RUC...AND THE RADAR WIND PROFILES EARLY THIS                  
MORNING LEAN TOWARD THE STRONG NAM WITH ITS HIGHER WINDS                        
VERIFYING. OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN                    
NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANTICIPATE THE GRADUALLY FALLING 925MB WINDS                 
TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP                     
SURFACE WINDS FROM GETTING TOO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.                            
GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES ALREADY SENT AND WILL ISSUE                 
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND THE NOON HOUR TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND               
REFRESH THE GRIDDED AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS. -DJF                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 220 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
1035 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND                  
EARLY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SW OVER CENTRAL NC INTO NE              
GA... WITH A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL                 
NC. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.                     
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS                
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW                
WAA TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TODAY... DISLODGING THE RESIDUAL COOL              
STABLE AIR MASS BY LATE MORNING.                                                
THE FORECAST PROBLEM LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW                
WARM THE TEMPERATURES GO AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SW                    
RAISING HEIGHTS... THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY... AND              
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE.                                                 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                      
THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR AMOUNT OF                 
CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF LOW CEILINGS (CIGS). THE MODELS HAVE DONE A                
POOR JOB INITIALIZING THE CURRENT WEAK COOL AIR DAMMING EVENT.                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO MOIST IN DEPICTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS              
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... WHICH DID NOT OCCUR. THE 00Z/22 MARCH               
RAOBS INDICATED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER BECAME FULLY                      
SATURATED... EVEN OVER THE TYPICAL DAMMING REGION... LIKELY DUE IN              
PART TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THEREFORE... WE               
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH MANY             
AREAS ACTUALLY PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR. WHILE THERE WERE                  
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT... THERE WERE                
ONLY MID CLOUDS OBSERVED DOWN EAST AT 06Z/22.                                   
THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND                 
NORTH PIEDMONT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS NEAR                 
SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THESE AREAS...             
WHICH APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST              
5K FEET SEEN ON THE LATEST VAD... RAOBS... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.              
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAA FROM THE S-SW OVER TOP THE COOL                 
STABLE DOME (PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN PRODUCING BROKEN TO            
OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET. PARTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...             
WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE T/TD SPREAD NARROWS TO            
LESS THAN 5 DEGREES F BEFORE DAYBREAK.                                          
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OUT THIS MORNING... THE WAA WILL               
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL                  
ALLOW THE WEAK DAMMING EVENT TO SCOUR OUR RAPIDLY. EXPECT THE                   
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER GFS                 
MOS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND AMOUNT OF SUN                   
EXPECTED. WE WILL GO A CATEGORY ABOVE THE GFS MOS AND FORECAST                  
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN                
10 AND 20 MPH.                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EXPECT A WARM AND DRY PERIOD AS                  
THE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD... THE H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR SW... AND               
THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK                  
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY TO EDGE INTO NE NC SATURDAY... BUT A                    
PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH DOES NOT                  
SUPPORT MUCH PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT                       
(STRONGER) SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BACK DAYTIME TEMPS                  
MAYBE 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NE SECTIONS... DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
LOCATION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY              
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT A DRY FORECAST WILL                      
CONTINUE.                                                                       
TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... (BY              
15 TO 20 DEGREES THIS PERIOD). LOWS TONIGHT 52-57... HIGHS FRIDAY               
80-85... LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 55-60... AND HIGHS SATURDAY 80-85. SUNDAY            
HIGHS OF 74-84 EXPECTED NE TO SW... AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED              
LATER. -BADGETT                                                                 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
PATTERN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...             
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH MID ATLC REGION...GRADUALLY                   
SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK. THUS NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL SHIFT              
AROUND TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE              
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WILL INCREASE SKY PERCENTAGES IN GRIDS.                 
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... BUT NOT AS WARM AS THIS                   
WEEKEND. -RA                                                                    
AVIATION /05Z-24Z/...                                                           
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU OVER                   
WESTERN SECTIONS. THUS MVFR CIGS---1-3KFT  AT INT-GSO TAF SITES.                
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF TAF SITES                 
08Z-09Z. AFTER 09Z THROUGH 13Z AREAS OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT VSBYS             
3-5 MILES IN FOG. AFTER 14Z EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYERS TO MIX               
OUT BECOMING SCATTERED TO BKN LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR             
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS                 
THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. -RA                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
950 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...           
BUT THERE WAS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH...UNDER THE                   
25KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE...RESULTED IN                   
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT...THROUGH THE TRIAD...INTO THE              
WADESBORO AND ALBEMARLE AREAS. THE LATEST RUC 950MB MOISTURE                    
PATTERN FIT THE STRATUS WELL...AND THAT FORECAST KEPT THE STRATUS               
ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS IT ALREADY WAS...MIXING OUT DURING THE LATE                
MORNING. ALREADY...A COMBINATION OF VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE              
IMAGES WERE SHOWING SOME EROSION NEAR ROCKINGHAM AND THIS TREND                 
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CURRENTLY                          
ANTICIPATING SKIES TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...IF NOT MOSTLY                  
SUNNY...IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 17Z.                                               
MORNING KGSO RAOB SHOWS THAT...IF THE AIR BECOMES WELL MIXED...                 
TEMPERATURES COULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S. BASED ON MORNING 12Z                  
1000-850MB THICKNESSES...FULL SUN WOULD SHOW LOWER 70S TOWARD                   
KGSO. THINK THAT THE MID AND UPPER 60S FORECAST BY THE LATEST MET               
AND FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE TRIAD MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOL...AND IF              
THE CLOUDS MIX OUT AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RISE                
TO AROUND 70 THERE. UNDER GOOD SUN...THINK THE UPPER 70S FORECAST               
IN PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD WORK                
WELL. LOWERED MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY IN THE AXIS OF MOST              
DENSE CLOUDS FROM KRDU THROUGH KGSO AND KINT...BUT STILL LOOKING                
FOR READINGS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                         
KGSO 12Z SOUNDING...AGAIN...SHOWED 25KT WINDS JUST OFF OF THE                   
SURFACE AND AS MIXING OCCURS INITIALLY THERE COULD BE A GUST OR                 
TWO AROUND 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. DURING THE AFTERNOON...          
RUC AND THE NAM40 BOTH FORECAST DIMINISHING 925MB WINDS...MAINLY                
TO 10-20KTS...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH. THE NAM IS A LITTLE                
STRONGER THAN THE RUC...AND THE RADAR WIND PROFILES EARLY THIS                  
MORNING LEAN TOWARD THE STRONG NAM WITH ITS HIGHER WINDS                        
VERIFYING. OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN                    
NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANTICIPATE THE GRADUALLY FALLING 925MB WINDS                 
TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP                     
SURFACE WINDS FROM GETTING TOO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.                            
GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES ALREADY SENT AND WILL ISSUE                 
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND THE NOON HOUR TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND               
REFRESH THE GRIDDED AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 220 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
1035 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND                  
EARLY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SW OVER CENTRAL NC INTO NE              
GA... WITH A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL                 
NC. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.                     
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS                
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW                
WAA TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TODAY... DISLODGING THE RESIDUAL COOL              
STABLE AIR MASS BY LATE MORNING.                                                
THE FORECAST PROBLEM LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW                
WARM THE TEMPERATURES GO AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SW                    
RAISING HEIGHTS... THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY... AND              
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE.                                                 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                      
THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR AMOUNT OF                 
CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF LOW CEILINGS (CIGS). THE MODELS HAVE DONE A                
POOR JOB INITIALIZING THE CURRENT WEAK COOL AIR DAMMING EVENT.                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO MOIST IN DEPICTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS              
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... WHICH DID NOT OCCUR. THE 00Z/22 MARCH               
RAOBS INDICATED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER BECAME FULLY                      
SATURATED... EVEN OVER THE TYPICAL DAMMING REGION... LIKELY DUE IN              
PART TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THEREFORE... WE               
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH MANY             
AREAS ACTUALLY PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR. WHILE THERE WERE                  
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT... THERE WERE                
ONLY MID CLOUDS OBSERVED DOWN EAST AT 06Z/22.                                   
THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND                 
NORTH PIEDMONT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS NEAR                 
SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THESE AREAS...             
WHICH APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST              
5K FEET SEEN ON THE LATEST VAD... RAOBS... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.              
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAA FROM THE S-SW OVER TOP THE COOL                 
STABLE DOME (PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN PRODUCING BROKEN TO            
OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET. PARTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...             
WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE T/TD SPREAD NARROWS TO            
LESS THAN 5 DEGREES F BEFORE DAYBREAK.                                          
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OUT THIS MORNING... THE WAA WILL               
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL                  
ALLOW THE WEAK DAMMING EVENT TO SCOUR OUR RAPIDLY. EXPECT THE                   
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER GFS                 
MOS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND AMOUNT OF SUN                   
EXPECTED. WE WILL GO A CATEGORY ABOVE THE GFS MOS AND FORECAST                  
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN                
10 AND 20 MPH.                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EXPECT A WARM AND DRY PERIOD AS                  
THE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD... THE H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR SW... AND               
THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK                  
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY TO EDGE INTO NE NC SATURDAY... BUT A                    
PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH DOES NOT                  
SUPPORT MUCH PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT                       
(STRONGER) SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BACK DAYTIME TEMPS                  
MAYBE 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NE SECTIONS... DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
LOCATION. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY              
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT A DRY FORECAST WILL                      
CONTINUE.                                                                       
TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... (BY              
15 TO 20 DEGREES THIS PERIOD). LOWS TONIGHT 52-57... HIGHS FRIDAY               
80-85... LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 55-60... AND HIGHS SATURDAY 80-85. SUNDAY            
HIGHS OF 74-84 EXPECTED NE TO SW... AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED              
LATER. -BADGETT                                                                 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
PATTERN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...             
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH MID ATLC REGION...GRADUALLY                   
SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK. THUS NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL SHIFT              
AROUND TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE              
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WILL INCREASE SKY PERCENTAGES IN GRIDS.                 
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... BUT NOT AS WARM AS THIS                   
WEEKEND. -RA                                                                    
AVIATION /05Z-24Z/...                                                           
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU OVER                   
WESTERN SECTIONS. THUS MVFR CIGS---1-3KFT  AT INT-GSO TAF SITES.                
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF TAF SITES                 
08Z-09Z. AFTER 09Z THROUGH 13Z AREAS OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT VSBYS             
3-5 MILES IN FOG. AFTER 14Z EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYERS TO MIX               
OUT BECOMING SCATTERED TO BKN LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR             
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS                 
THROUGH 13Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. -RA                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
919 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR LOOP                   
CURRENTLY OVER MT/SASK WILL BE IN POSITION TO POSSIBLY CAUSE                    
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WARMING BEFORE ARRIVAL                     
WILL ENSURE THAT ITS PHASE WILL BE LIQUID. 12Z RUC SHOWS                        
IMPRESSIVE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING NORTH                    
OF A DVL-GFK-TVF-BDE LINE BETWEEN 00Z-21Z...ENOUGH TO PROBABLY                  
SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE SCANT MOISTURE.                  
BUT 12Z GGW SOUNDING WAS DRIER THAN 06Z MODELS INDICATED AND                    
RADARS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT DEVELOPING YET. SO WILL NOT                 
RAISE PROBABILITY AT ALL OR CHANGE TIMING. TEMPERATURE AND WIND                 
ISSUES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TOO SO WILL NOT UPDATE THE CURRENT                 
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
852 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POPS ARE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NW HALF OF                 
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF               
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N OK... NAM                 
QPF SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS S OK. THUS LIKELY                
POPS ARE EXTENDED DOWN INTO SCENTRAL OK AND OUR TX ZONES. MOST                  
AREAS THAT ARE PROJECTED TO GET SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL CAN                  
HANDLE IT SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                         
BOW ECHO OVER W OK WILL MOVE INTO OKC AREA BETWEEN 0330Z AND 05Z                
IF IT MAINTAINS CURRENT COURSE AND SPEED. ALTHOUGH RADAR                        
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE... WE HAVE NOT GATHERED ANY                    
SEVERE WIND REPORTS. HIGHEST GUSTS SO FAR ARE 48MPH AT ERICK                    
MESONET AND 46MPH AT RETROP MESONET. AGREE WITH SWOMCD #321 THAT                
STORM INTENSITY PROBABLY HAS PREAKED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL                  
DECREASE FROM HERE ON. RERECENT RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO BEAR THIS                
OUT... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 24                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE                 
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER JET                 
STREAK NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BORDER AND ALSO ON THE                    
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.               
THE LATEST RUC HAS THE BEST MODEL INITIALIZATION AND THUS HAVE                  
FOLLOWED IT CLOSER THROUGH 06Z THAN OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS.                   
THEREFORE...WE HAVE CONVECTION EXPANDING THROUGH THE EVENING ON THE             
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO INCREASE            
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA              
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS PEAKING DUE TO                     
CONSISTENT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TODAY AND WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS           
ON RADAR CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY JUST HOW FAR TO             
CARRY POPS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE                
FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH POPS VALUES AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                  
DOWNDRAFTS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                     
BY FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE AMPLITUDE            
OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE INCREASES. THIS MAY BE PARTICULARLY TRUE                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RELATIVE                   
DISTANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY              
OF THE DRYLINE FOCUSING ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE                  
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY             
WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH ALSO SHIFTS THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY               
RAIN AND MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS              
PANHANDLES. THEN BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE LOW BEGINS WEAKENING AND                
LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD.                  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR VERY CLOSE THE AREA EVEN             
AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LARGE SCALE                
PATTERN IS ONLY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDENT WITH A VIGOROUS SYSTEM QUICKLY            
APPROACHING. HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT             
WEEK TO SUPPORT LOW POPS AREA-WIDE WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER                 
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER                    
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE THEN USED                      
PERSISTENCE AND/OR CLIMATOLOGY TO CARRY LOW POPS THROUGH THE OF THE             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  76  63 /  30  70  30  20                              
HOBART OK         73  58  75  61 /  50  80  30  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  60  77  62 /  40  70  30  30                              
GAGE OK           71  53  74  58 /  40  70  40  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     74  57  73  62 /  60  80  30  20                              
DURANT OK         73  62  77  64 /  10  40  20  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/24                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
340 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE                 
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER JET                 
STREAK NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BORDER AND ALSO ON THE                    
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.               
THE LATEST RUC HAS THE BEST MODEL INITIALIZATION AND THUS HAVE                  
FOLLOWED IT CLOSER THROUGH 06Z THAN OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS.                   
THEREFORE...WE HAVE CONVECTION EXPANDING THROUGH THE EVENING ON THE             
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO INCREASE            
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA              
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS PEAKING DUE TO                     
CONSISTENT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TODAY AND WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS           
ON RADAR CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY JUST HOW FAR TO             
CARRY POPS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE                
FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH POPS VALUES AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                  
DOWNDRAFTS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                     
BY FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE AMPLITUDE            
OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE INCREASES. THIS MAY BE PARTICULARLY TRUE                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RELATIVE                   
DISTANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY              
OF THE DRYLINE FOCUSING ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE                  
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY             
WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH ALSO SHIFTS THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY               
RAIN AND MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS              
PANHANDLES. THEN BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE LOW BEGINS WEAKENING AND                
LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD.                  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR VERY CLOSE THE AREA EVEN             
AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LARGE SCALE                
PATTERN IS ONLY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDENT WITH A VIGOROUS SYSTEM QUICKLY            
APPROACHING. HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT             
WEEK TO SUPPORT LOW POPS AREA-WIDE WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER                 
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER                    
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE THEN USED                      
PERSISTENCE AND/OR CLIMATOLOGY TO CARRY LOW POPS THROUGH THE OF THE             
WEEK.                                                                           
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  76  63  77 /  70  30  20  20                              
HOBART OK         58  75  61  75 /  70  30  40  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  62  76 /  70  30  30  30                              
GAGE OK           53  74  58  72 /  40  40  40  60                              
PONCA CITY OK     57  73  62  77 /  80  30  20  20                              
DURANT OK         62  77  64  79 /  40  20  10  10                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
816 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BULK OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LL              
JET HAS NOW PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST PA...WHILE APPROACHING COLD                   
FRONT IS EVIDENT BY BACK EDGE OF SCT SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO NW                   
MTNS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT FOR A FEW                  
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING...SO WILL ADD SLGHT CHC OF THUNDER               
TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. SFC FRONT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE                   
TONIGHT TO PUSH SOUTH OF MASON DIXON. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY ONLY                 
LOW CHC OF -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LL JET/HIGH PWATS SHIFT EAST               
OF THE STATE.                                                                   
18Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CAT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA                 
FRIDAY AS NEXT WAVE RIDES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF PA.               
MIDWEST RADARS ALREADY SHOWING ERUPTION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR SW ZONES                  
ARND DAWN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 341 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING INTO SWRN PA AND THE             
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RUC SHOWS THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AXIS OF              
BEST INSTABILITY THAT HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE SUNSHINE WHICH              
WE HAVE ENJOYED MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH SOME MODEST CAPE AND                      
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO                  
CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL                     
MOUNTAINS. SPC FEELS THE SYSTEM WILL OUTRUN THE BEST LOW                        
LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A DIMINISHING OF THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT              
ENTERS OUR REGION. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE                  
DECK..ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL STILL BE            
CAPABLE OF CAUSING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.                                
VERY MUDDY PICTURE PAINTED FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.               
MODELS AGREE IN SAGGING THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER            
BEFORE RIDING A SERIES OF WAVES EAST ALONG IT. FIRST BIG DISCREPANCY            
ARISES FRIDAY WITH GFS WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LEAD WAVE.             
NAM TAKES MUCH OF THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. 09Z SREF LOOKS MORE LIKE              
THE NEW GFS. THE 12Z MREF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. WHAT            
MAKES EVERYTHING VERY TENUOUS IS THAT THE MODELS MAKE MUCH OF THE               
RAIN COME FROM MCS`S THAT GENERATE IN THE MID WEST BEFORE HEADING               
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS THE STORY RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELYING ON THE              
MODELS GETTING A HANDLE ON CONVECTION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN                  
ADVANCE IS ALWAYS A RISKY PROPOSITION. FOR FRIDAY I WENT WITH                   
ENSEMBLE MOS POPS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH                
NUMBERS LEANING CLOSER TO THE DRIER NAM MOS POPS OVER THE NORTH.                
EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIP ON                
WHATEVER ENDS UP BEING THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                       
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO CONTEND WITH EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE             
PERIOD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BEING A CUT-OFF MID-LVL               
VORTEX OVER THE DSW AND A FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE              
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SFC...FOCUS IS ON AN ELONGATED E-W FRONTAL             
BNDRY STRETCHING FM THE MID MS VLY EWD TO VCNTY MASON-DIXON LINE THEN           
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.                                                     
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING UPSTREAM ENERGY                 
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM CUT-OFF...CROSSING THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS AND REACHING THE NORTHEAST BY SAT-SUN. RECENT TRENDS AND                 
VERIFICATION FROM HPC STRONGLY ARGUE AGAINST THE INCREASINGLY                   
SLOW/DEEP NAM SOLN WITH THE TROF THAT REACHES THE NORTHEAST DURING              
THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIAGS INDICATE A RECOMMENDATION OF A BLEND OF                
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND EPS DATA FOR BOTH TIMING AND QPF.                     
THE ELONGATED FRONTAL BNDRY IS LOCATED IN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL                 
CONFLUENCE/LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY BTWN NRN STREAM BELT OF                      
STRONG/PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AND PERIPHERY OF SUMMER-LIKE                   
BERMUDA RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. EMBEDDED S/W DISTURBANCES                  
EJECTING NEWD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL DOME AND TRANSLATING EWD ALONG             
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULTY IN                    
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS/QPF. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF                  
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR AND ALONG THE Q-STNRY FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A              
STRONG 850MB LLJ /PWATS +1-2STD ABV NORMAL/ COMBINED WITH                       
ENHANCED/PROLONGED UVVELS COURTESY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION                 
OF A 110KT ULJ STREAK WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR                   
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOD TO HVY PCPN INVOF/TO THE COLD SIDE OF THE                
LLVL BNDRY. GFS/NAM MODEL QPF ACCUM RUNS SHOW A STRIPE OF 1-2+ INCH             
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/MIDDLE OH VLY EWD                       
STRADDLING THE PA/MD BORDER ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.                                  
THE MODELS SEEM TO FIZZLE THE FIRST WAVE OVER SRN/SWERN PA LATE                 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE E-W FRONT PIVOTS SLIGHTLY TO A WNW-ESE              
ORIENTATION. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE             
WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHORT TERM ENS MOS. WAA/THETA-E ADV AND                   
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY            
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT OVERRUNNING SHRA TO SPILL INTO THE AREA            
EARLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER...MORE POTENT RIDGE-RIDER S/W ARRIVES                  
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE ALMOST LOOKS LIKE AN MCS AS IT               
BARRELS OVER-TOP THE H5 RIDGE AND DIVES SEWD INTO CENTRAL PA. AS                
NOTED EARLIER...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES                      
HANDLING THESE PIECES OF S/W ENERGY AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM                   
GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT TIMES. AT ANY RATE...MESOSCALE                
DETAILS WILL NEED TIME TO BE RESOLVED AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH                  
STE/ENS MOS POPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE HIGH CHC CAT /40-50%/               
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL               
NAM/GFS MOS POPS FOR THIS TIME PD.                                              
AS FOR TEMPS...EXACT LOCATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE KEY AS IT                
WILL ACT AS THE DIVIDING LINE BTWN WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH                  
/60-70S/ AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /40-50S/ TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER                 
OVERALL...GEFS/SREF NORMALIZED ANOMALY FIELDS OF 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND            
850MB TEMPS FAVOR AOA CLIMO THRU MUCH OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE              
PD WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES NOTED IN BOTH FIELDS. IN THE LATER                   
PDS...BLENDED HPC/ENS MOS/GRIDDED MOS VALUES WHICH AGAIN RESULTS                
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.                                                          
THE BULK OF THE S/W ENERGY EJECTS NEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST SUNDAY              
INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN                 
CONUS. SOME QUESTION HERE AS TO SHARPNESS OF THE H5 RIDGE WITH THE              
GFS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A S/W TROF DIVING ESEWD OVER THE                     
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A DIFFUSE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE WEAKENING MID                
AND UPPER LVL ENERGY THAT HAD ORIGINATED OVER THE SW U.S. WILL                  
PASS THRU TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS ACCORDINGLY. STORMY               
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AS A                     
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE CENTRAL GRT BASIN AND MOVES                
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WILL                 
KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FROM WED-FRI. H5 RIDGE AXIS FCAST TO CROSS               
THE STATE LATE THUR WITH INC PCPN /-SHRA/ CHCS FOR DY8 AND BEYOND.              
AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                           
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL                          
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GRADUAL               
LOWERING OF CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CHANCE OF                    
SHOWERS. INITIALLY I THINK THAT ONLY AREAS OF MVFR WILL ACCOMPANY               
THE SHOWERS...BUT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING...A MORE GENERAL LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND VIS TO MVFR WILL BE             
LIKELY. I HAVE ALL MY TERMINALS IN THE 2000-3000` RANGE WITH 3-6                
MILES IN SHOWERS BY AROUND 00Z. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MDT WHERE WEATHER             
WILL BE SLOWEST TO MOVE IN.                                                     
CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE             
AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MANAGE TO COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING            
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO EDGE UP INTO THE 60S.              
FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COOL AIR DAMMING HAS BEEN                       
STUBBORN...THEY ARE A BIT COOLER BUT WILL LIKELY JUMP UP INTO THE               
LOWER 60S AT LEAST ONCE THE WIND MIXES THEM OUT. WINDS ALOFT ARE                
HOWLING 45-55KT SO ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS                 
SEEMS LIKELY.                                                                   
AFTER THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE WEATHER                     
QUESTIONS CLOUDY...EXCUSE THE PUN. DIFFERING GUIDANCE SHOWS THE                 
FRONT BECOMING Q-STATIONARY AND SETTING A SERIES OF WAVES TO MOVE               
EAST ALONG IT. GFS IS MUCH WETTER AND COVERS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 3/4             
OF MY FCST AREA WITH A SOAKING RAIN TOMORROW. THE NAM IS FURTHER                
SOUTH WITH ITS PRECIP SHIELD. THIS LEADS TO THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY               
AND HAS IMPLICATIONS AS TO WHICH TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE AND WHEN. AS            
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO MAINTAIN MVFR OR              
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST               
AREA. AOO-UNV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINE WHERE IT COULD EITHER BE               
SCATTERED AND VFR OR RAINING AND MVFR OR WORSE. STILL TOO EARLY TO              
BE SPECIFIC.                                                                    
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL                      
PRODUCE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE NORTH BRANCH AND                
MAIN STEM OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED                
IN SOME AREAS WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
341 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING INTO SWRN PA AND THE             
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RUC SHOWS THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AXIS OF              
BEST INSTABILITY THAT HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE SUNSHINE WHICH              
WE HAVE ENJOYED MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH SOME MODEST CAPE AND                      
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO                  
CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL                     
MOUNTAINS. SPC FEELS THE SYSTEM WILL OUTRUN THE BEST LOW                        
LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A DIMINISHING OF THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT              
ENTERS OUR REGION. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE                  
DECK..ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL STILL BE            
CAPABLE OF CAUSING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.                                
VERY MUDDY PICTURE PAINTED FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.               
MODELS AGREE IN SAGGING THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER            
BEFORE RIDING A SERIES OF WAVES EAST ALONG IT. FIRST BIG DISCREPANCY            
ARISES FRIDAY WITH GFS WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LEAD WAVE.             
NAM TAKES MUCH OF THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. 09Z SREF LOOKS MORE LIKE              
THE NEW GFS. THE 12Z MREF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. WHAT            
MAKES EVERYTHING VERY TENUOUS IS THAT THE MODELS MAKE MUCH OF THE               
RAIN COME FROM MCS`S THAT GENERATE IN THE MID WEST BEFORE HEADING               
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS THE STORY RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELYING ON THE              
MODELS GETTING A HANDLE ON CONVECTION MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN                  
ADVANCE IS ALWAYS A RISKY PROPOSITION. FOR FRIDAY I WENT WITH                   
ENSEMBLE MOS POPS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH                
NUMBERS LEANING CLOSER TO THE DRIER NAM MOS POPS OVER THE NORTH.                
EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIP ON                
WHATEVER ENDS UP BEING THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO CONTEND WITH EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE             
PERIOD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BEING A CUT-OFF MID-LVL               
VORTEX OVER THE DSW AND A FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE              
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SFC...FOCUS IS ON AN ELONGATED E-W FRONTAL             
BNDRY STRETCHING FM THE MID MS VLY EWD TO VCNTY MASON-DIXON LINE THEN           
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.                                                     
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING UPSTREAM ENERGY                 
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM CUT-OFF...CROSSING THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS AND REACHING THE NORTHEAST BY SAT-SUN. RECENT TRENDS AND                 
VERIFICATION FROM HPC STRONGLY ARGUE AGAINST THE INCREASINGLY                   
SLOW/DEEP NAM SOLN WITH THE TROF THAT REACHES THE NORTHEAST DURING              
THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIAGS INDICATE A RECOMMENDATION OF A BLEND OF                
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND EPS DATA FOR BOTH TIMING AND QPF.                     
THE ELONGATED FRONTAL BNDRY IS LOCATED IN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL                 
CONFLUENCE/LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY BTWN NRN STREAM BELT OF                      
STRONG/PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AND PERIPHERY OF SUMMER-LIKE                   
BERMUDA RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. EMBEDDED S/W DISTURBANCES                  
EJECTING NEWD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL DOME AND TRANSLATING EWD ALONG             
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULTY IN                    
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS/QPF. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF                  
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR AND ALONG THE Q-STNRY FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A              
STRONG 850MB LLJ /PWATS +1-2STD ABV NORMAL/ COMBINED WITH                       
ENHANCED/PROLONGED UVVELS COURTESY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION                 
OF A 110KT ULJ STREAK WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR                   
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOD TO HVY PCPN INVOF/TO THE COLD SIDE OF THE                
LLVL BNDRY. GFS/NAM MODEL QPF ACCUM RUNS SHOW A STRIPE OF 1-2+ INCH             
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/MIDDLE OH VLY EWD                       
STRADDLING THE PA/MD BORDER ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.                                  
THE MODELS SEEM TO FIZZLE THE FIRST WAVE OVER SRN/SWERN PA LATE                 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE E-W FRONT PIVOTS SLIGHTLY TO A WNW-ESE              
ORIENTATION. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE             
WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHORT TERM ENS MOS. WAA/THETA-E ADV AND                   
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY            
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT OVERRUNNING SHRA TO SPILL INTO THE AREA            
EARLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER...MORE POTENT RIDGE-RIDER S/W ARRIVES                  
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE ALMOST LOOKS LIKE AN MCS AS IT               
BARRELS OVER-TOP THE H5 RIDGE AND DIVES SEWD INTO CENTRAL PA. AS                
NOTED EARLIER...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES                      
HANDLING THESE PIECES OF S/W ENERGY AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM                   
GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT TIMES. AT ANY RATE...MESOSCALE                
DETAILS WILL NEED TIME TO BE RESOLVED AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH                  
STE/ENS MOS POPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE HIGH CHC CAT /40-50%/               
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL               
NAM/GFS MOS POPS FOR THIS TIME PD.                                              
AS FOR TEMPS...EXACT LOCATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE KEY AS IT                
WILL ACT AS THE DIVIDING LINE BTWN WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH                  
/60-70S/ AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /40-50S/ TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER                 
OVERALL...GEFS/SREF NORMALIZED ANOMALY FIELDS OF 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND            
850MB TEMPS FAVOR AOA CLIMO THRU MUCH OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE              
PD WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES NOTED IN BOTH FIELDS. IN THE LATER                   
PDS...BLENDED HPC/ENS MOS/GRIDDED MOS VALUES WHICH AGAIN RESULTS                
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.                                                          
THE BULK OF THE S/W ENERGY EJECTS NEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST SUNDAY              
INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN                 
CONUS. SOME QUESTION HERE AS TO SHARPNESS OF THE H5 RIDGE WITH THE              
GFS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A S/W TROF DIVING ESEWD OVER THE                     
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A DIFFUSE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE WEAKENING MID                
AND UPPER LVL ENERGY THAT HAD ORIGINATED OVER THE SW U.S. WILL                  
PASS THRU TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS ACCORDINGLY. STORMY               
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AS A                     
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE CENTRAL GRT BASIN AND MOVES                
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WILL                 
KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FROM WED-FRI. H5 RIDGE AXIS FCAST TO CROSS               
THE STATE LATE THUR WITH INC PCPN /-SHRA/ CHCS FOR DY8 AND BEYOND.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL                          
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GRADUAL               
LOWERING OF CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CHANCE OF                    
SHOWERS. INITIALLY I THINK THAT ONLY AREAS OF MVFR WILL ACCOMPANY               
THE SHOWERS...BUT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING...A MORE GENERAL LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND VIS TO MVFR WILL BE             
LIKELY. I HAVE ALL MY TERMINALS IN THE 2000-3000` RANGE WITH 3-6                
MILES IN SHOWERS BY AROUND 00Z. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MDT WHERE WEATHER             
WILL BE SLOWEST TO MOVE IN.                                                     
CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE             
AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MANAGE TO COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING            
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO EDGE UP INTO THE 60S.              
FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COOL AIR DAMMING HAS BEEN                       
STUBBORN...THEY ARE A BIT COOLER BUT WILL LIKELY JUMP UP INTO THE               
LOWER 60S AT LEAST ONCE THE WIND MIXES THEM OUT. WINDS ALOFT ARE                
HOWLING 45-55KT SO ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS                 
SEEMS LIKELY.                                                                   
AFTER THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE WEATHER                     
QUESTIONS CLOUDY...EXCUSE THE PUN. DIFFERING GUIDANCE SHOWS THE                 
FRONT BECOMING Q-STATIONARY AND SETTING A SERIES OF WAVES TO MOVE               
EAST ALONG IT. GFS IS MUCH WETTER AND COVERS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 3/4             
OF MY FCST AREA WITH A SOAKING RAIN TOMORROW. THE NAM IS FURTHER                
SOUTH WITH ITS PRECIP SHIELD. THIS LEADS TO THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY               
AND HAS IMPLICATIONS AS TO WHICH TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE AND WHEN. AS            
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO MAINTAIN MVFR OR              
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST               
AREA. AOO-UNV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINE WHERE IT COULD EITHER BE               
SCATTERED AND VFR OR RAINING AND MVFR OR WORSE. STILL TOO EARLY TO              
BE SPECIFIC.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL                      
PRODUCE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE NORTH BRANCH AND                
MAIN STEM OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED                
IN SOME AREAS WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...LACORTE                                                              
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1101 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A SLOWLY DIMINISHING SQUALL LINE FROM SRN                  
LAKE HURON DOWN INTO SWRN OHIO. RUC AND MESO ANALS INDICATE THAT                
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOC WITH A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND               
INSTABILITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH AT 14Z                
WAS MOVING THRU MICH AND EXTENDED TO JUST EAST OF CHICAGO. MODELS               
SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING THE STATE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN              
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL                 
FOCUSING SHUD BE JUST ENTERING CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 18-21Z. RUC                   
STILL SHOWS SOME MEASURE OF INSTABILITY WITH LI`S JUST BELOW                    
ZERO...SOME MODEST CAPE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR THRU THE              
LOWER 10K FEET OR SO OF THE ATMOS. SPC FEELS THE SYSTEM WILL                    
OUTRUN THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A DIMINISHING OF THE              
SEVERE THREAT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG                 
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK..ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO               
DEVELOP WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS.                                                                          
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SOON...WITH SOME FINE TUNING OF              
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.                                   
LA CORTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 345 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
MILDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE            
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE               
STALLING OUT FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO SOUTHWESTERN PENN FRIDAY INTO            
SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY            
AND RIDE JUST TO NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING              
WITH IT ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.                           
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
ALL OF CENTRAL PENN IS NESTLED IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS MORNING            
WITH A 5 TO 10 KT SOUTH TO SE FLOW AT MOST OB SITES. TEMPS IN THE               
MID TO UPPER 30S ARE 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY SPRING             
MORNING.                                                                        
DEPARTURES OF 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS                       
AFTERNOON/S MAX TEMPS /IN THE MID TO U50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S            
ACROSS THE SOUTH/ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM                
LAKE SUPERIOR...SWD THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. POCKETS OF SFC BASED                  
LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND               
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW BELT OF             
ABOVE NORMAL /PLUS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ PRECIP WATER OF AROUND              
ONE INCH AS DEPICTED BY THE 21Z SREF. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL             
PWATS WILL SAG INTO MOST OF PENN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES             
TEMPORARILY SWD INTO VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS DEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...WITH               
VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH NEAR THE MASON...DIXON LINE.                          
THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND NAM /WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER            
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE SREF MEAN IN THE LOCATION OF UPPER MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING/QPF/ ARE NEARLY 180 DEG OUT OF PHASE                    
W/RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. PAINTED CLOUD...POP/WEATHER AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE SREF.            
ALSO FOLLOWED SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE MOS VALUES QUITE CLOSELY FOR MAX              
AND MIN TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                 
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFICS ON THE TIMING             
AND AMOUNT OF QPF. COMBINED QPF AND SNOWMELT OVER THE UPCOMING 48               
HOUR STRETCH WILL RANGE AS HIGH AS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. RAINFALL FOR              
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE UNDERESTIMATED SHOULD THE LOCATION AND                    
STRENGTH OF THE NAM`S LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 115 KT UPPER BETTER                 
VERIFY.                                                                         
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
BOTH THE GFS AND 12 KM NAM INDICATE A DRIER AND MILD SECOND HALF OF             
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE NWRLY              
DIRECTION AND A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS OVER THE              
STATE.                                                                          
IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH            
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL PENN LATER TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT...WEAKENING COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY             
DIP TO A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT JUST IN THE WAKE            
OF THE FRONT...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART            
OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                   
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10-12Z BUT DID MENTION A PERIOD OF            
MVFR AS WARM ADVECTION ROLLS OVER A DWINDLING SNOW COVER. CEILINGS              
WILL LOWER THROUGH 18Z AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY. LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SPECIFIC AIRFIELDS AS THE             
COVERAGE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF VCTS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING VCTS            
IN THE 12Z PACKAGE FOR THE WESTERN AIRFIELDS OF KJST AND KBFD.                  
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 210-230 AFTER 14Z AHEAD OF THE                         
FRONT...GUSTING TO 15-20KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL            
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST             
AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                               
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING                  
BETWEEN 2 TENTHS AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAIN TO               
THE WRN MTNS OF PENN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY               
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.                   
MELTING OF THE ONE HALF...TO ONE INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE                
RIPE SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER FACTOR IN RUNOFF INTO                   
STREAMS AND RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.                                
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT             
WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS             
OF AN INCH. LOWER WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR SW                
MTNS /RELATIVE TO THE NCENT MTNS/ WILL COMBINE WITH THE SOMEWHAT                
HIGHER 48 HR RAINFALL FROM KJST TO KBFD...YIELDING SIMILAR TOTAL                
RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS AND RIVERS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1015 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH #73 FOR STERLING COUNTY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAD ONE SUPERCELL MOVE               
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST CROCKETT COUNTY. THIS STORM IS NOW OVER                
UPTON COUNTY. THE CHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...AS INCREASING                
LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS...MAINLY            
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  21                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THAN WHAT WE                
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS INVADE ONCE                 
AGAIN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                  
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JCT AND BBD WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE              
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AREAS                  
AGAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISBYS NOT                
CERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AGAIN TIMING                
AND LOCATIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.              
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS IN LATTER FORECAST ONCE                
THESE BECOME BETTER DETERMINED.                                                 
BRAZZELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN                 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE                  
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO                 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW                   
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE                
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW                           
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN                 
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE               
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT              
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE              
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN              
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE                
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN               
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.                                
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED                
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF                  
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.               
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY                    
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A                 
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING                   
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL                   
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT               
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL                
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  72  62  75  59 /  30  50  30  30                                       
SAN ANGELO  75  59  72  57 /  30  50  30  30                                    
JUNCTION  75  63  72  61 /  40  40  20  40                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...TORNADO WATCH #73 IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM FOR STERLING COUNTY...              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
903 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAD ONE SUPERCELL MOVE               
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST CROCKETT COUNTY. THIS STORM IS NOW OVER                
UPTON COUNTY. THE CHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...AS INCREASING                
LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS...MAINLY            
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  21                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                         
AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THAN WHAT WE                
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS INVADE ONCE                 
AGAIN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                  
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JCT AND BBD WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE              
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AREAS                  
AGAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISBYS NOT                
CERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AGAIN TIMING                
AND LOCATIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.              
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS IN LATTER FORECAST ONCE                
THESE BECOME BETTER DETERMINED.                                                 
BRAZZELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN                 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE                  
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO                 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW                   
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE                
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW                           
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN                 
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE               
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT              
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE              
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN              
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE                
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN               
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.                                
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED                
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF                  
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.               
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY                    
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A                 
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING                   
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL                   
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT               
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL                
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  62  75  59  69 /  50  30  30  30                                       
SAN ANGELO  59  72  57  70 /  50  30  30  50                                    
JUNCTION  63  72  61  71 /  40  20  40  50                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THAN WHAT WE               
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS INVADE ONCE                 
AGAIN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                  
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JCT AND BBD WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE              
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AREAS                  
AGAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISBYS NOT                
CERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AGAIN TIMING                
AND LOCATIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.              
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS IN LATTER FORECAST ONCE                
THESE BECOME BETTER DETERMINED.                                                 
BRAZZELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN                 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE                  
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO                 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW                   
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE                
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW                           
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN                 
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE               
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT              
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE              
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN              
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE                
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN               
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.                                
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED                
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF                  
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.               
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY                    
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A                 
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING                   
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL                   
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT               
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL                
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  62  75  59  69 /  50  30  30  30                                       
SAN ANGELO MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM                                    
JUNCTION  63  72  61  71 /  40  20  40  50                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/27/99                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN                 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE                  
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO                 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW                   
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE                
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW                           
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN                 
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE               
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT              
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE              
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN              
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE                
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN               
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.                                
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED                
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF                  
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.               
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY                    
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A                 
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING                   
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL                   
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT               
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL                
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  62  75  59  69 /  50  30  30  30                                       
SAN ANGELO  59  72  57  70 /  50  30  30  50                                    
JUNCTION  63  72  61  71 /  40  20  40  50                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
143 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
NO ORGANIZED OR LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS THROUGH 18Z SAT.                 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW JERSEY TO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL DRIFT                
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY                  
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE                
NORTH BUT STILL NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF                
SHOWERS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS                 
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION FORMS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND               
SHEAR AT DAN...BLF...AND LWB. EVEN WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE              
NORTH TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF                  
HOURS OF FOG AT LWB JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN THE SURFACE DEW POINT              
DEPRESSION IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1102 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
RUC IS SHOWING SOME LEE TROFING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND               
JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE                 
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 50S BUT THAT                 
STILL RESULTS IN CAPES OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG. DEPPER MOISTURE DOES              
COME INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE IN                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ALSO SLOWED DOWN SOUTHWARD PUSH OF POPS UNTIL                
LATER IN THE EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN                 
THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE                
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
CLIMATE...                                                                      
ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORDS              
TODAY.                                                                          
RECORDS TODAY:                                                                  
ROANOKE    80/1994                                                              
LYNCHBURG  91/1907                                                              
DANVILLE   86/1966                                                              
BLACKSBURG 80/1966                                                              
BLUEFIELD  76/1978                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 658 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
EXPECT VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS WITH NO LOW RESTRICTION TO                 
CEILING OR VISIBILITY THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THROUGH 00Z. FOR THE                  
SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PD 00Z-12Z...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP                 
DEPENDING ON WHETHER OUTFLOW FROM OHIO VALLEY THUNDERSTOMRS MOVE                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                      
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL                  
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER ALL BLACKSBURG TERMINAL FORECAST              
AREAS (ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG... DANVILLE...BLUEFIELD...LEWISBURG)                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT                   
WILL CAUSE COOL FRONT (CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM NEW                   
ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY) TO STALL NORTH OF THE                       
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME                 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS                 
SUCH AS AT LEWISBURG...ROANOKE...AND LYNCHBURG THIS MORNING...BUT               
ANY MID LEVEL CLOUD INTRUSION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND                    
CONFINED TO MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OHIO                    
VALLEY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THERE               
IS THE POTENTIAL (LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM) THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP                  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BLACKSBURG FCST AREA (BLF-LWB-LYH)                        
TONIGHT...AFT 00Z.                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
AT 06Z SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEST THROUGH                 
NORTH CENTRAL OH/IN INTO NRN MO. 1020 MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED                  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH (1027 MB) WAS ANCHORED ALONG                 
THE SE CAROLINA COAST. ALL PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO                 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                           
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
FCST AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SFC                  
HIGH POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH ANTICIPATE WESTERLY WIND TODAY. THIS               
WIND WILL AID IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT EAST OF THE MTNS               
WITH ADIABATIC WARMING TAKING PLACE AREAWIDE. LL THICKNESSES                    
SUPPORT TEMPS OF 80 DEG F EAST OF THE MTNS. ADD A COUPLE DEGREES                
FOR ADIABATIC EFFECTS AND TMAX LIKELY TO REACH L80S. THINK CLOUD                
COVER ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL NOT REALLY               
BE A PLAYER...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON. RECORD                   
TMAX SHOULD BE TESTED AT ROA...AND POSSIBLY BCB AND BLF...SEE                   
CLIMO SECTION FOR RECORDS.                                                      
NOT IMPRESSED BY PRECIP THREAT TODAY. MODELS WERE TOO WET                       
YESTERDAY AND BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON DIXON SEEMS TO BE THE                     
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THAT                            
SAID...REMOVED MENTION OF POPS TODAY...EXCEPT NORTH OF I64.                     
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE SFC FRONT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TO THE                  
SOUTH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RIPPLES OF LOW                 
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVR THE NEXT              
36 HRS WITH WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA. THESE MCS FEATURES MAY SEND AN                  
OUTFL0W OUR WAY...SO CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHRA MAKING IT THIS                 
FAR SOUTH. MAIN THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD BE ACROSS               
THE NRN CWA...MORE SO FOR AREAS NORTH OF I64. HPC HAS HEAVIEST QPF              
THREAT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE MASON DIXON WHERE SEVERAL                
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY PER REPEAT SHRA/TSRA.                                  
FRONT IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH                  
NORTHEAST WINDS DRAWING COOLER DRYER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. DEEP               
RH APPEARS TO BE LACKING SO POPS MINIMAL.                                       
1035 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK...TO BE CENTERED OVR NJ MONDAY...THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE                 
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE ERN CWA WILL                   
FAIR THE BEST DURING THE PD WITH DRY AIR SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH                 
ERN VA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE                  
MTNS...PER OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST                    
UPSLOPE. ATTM MODELS ARE FOCUSING GREATEST RH OVR WRN NC...AND ON               
THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS (ERN TN/KY) WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND                    
WILL POOL MOISTURE THERE.                                                       
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORDS TODAY                                                                   
ROANOKE    80/1994                                                              
LYNCHBURG  91/1907                                                              
DANVILLE   86/1966                                                              
BLACKSBURG 80/1966                                                              
BLUEFIELD  76/1978                                                              
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...AMS                                                                  
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1102 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
RUC IS SHOWING SOME LEE TROFING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND               
JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE                 
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 50S BUT THAT                 
STILL RESULTS IN CAPES OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG. DEPPER MOISTURE DOES              
COME INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE IN                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ALSO SLOWED DOWN SOUTHWARD PUSH OF POPS UNTIL                
LATER IN THE EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN                 
THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE                
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORDS              
TODAY.                                                                          
RECORDS TODAY:                                                                  
ROANOKE    80/1994                                                              
LYNCHBURG  91/1907                                                              
DANVILLE   86/1966                                                              
BLACKSBURG 80/1966                                                              
BLUEFIELD  76/1978                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 658 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
EXPECT VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS WITH NO LOW RESTRICTION TO                 
CEILING OR VISIBILITY THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THROUGH 00Z. FOR THE                  
SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PD 00Z-12Z...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP                 
DEPENDING ON WHETHER OUTFLOW FROM OHIO VALLEY THUNDERSTOMRS MOVE                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                      
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL                  
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER ALL BLACKSBURG TERMINAL FORECAST              
AREAS (ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG... DANVILLE...BLUEFIELD...LEWISBURG)                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT                   
WILL CAUSE COOL FRONT (CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM NEW                   
ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY) TO STALL NORTH OF THE                       
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME                 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS                 
SUCH AS AT LEWISBURG...ROANOKE...AND LYNCHBURG THIS MORNING...BUT               
ANY MID LEVEL CLOUD INTRUSION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND                    
CONFINED TO MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OHIO                    
VALLEY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THERE               
IS THE POTENTIAL (LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM) THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY CLIP                  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BLACKSBURG FCST AREA (BLF-LWB-LYH)                        
TONIGHT...AFT 00Z.                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
AT 06Z SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEST THROUGH                 
NORTH CENTRAL OH/IN INTO NRN MO. 1020 MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED                  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH (1027 MB) WAS ANCHORED ALONG                 
THE SE CAROLINA COAST. ALL PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO                 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                           
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
FCST AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SFC                  
HIGH POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH ANTICIPATE WESTERLY WIND TODAY. THIS               
WIND WILL AID IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT EAST OF THE MTNS               
WITH ADIABATIC WARMING TAKING PLACE AREAWIDE. LL THICKNESSES                    
SUPPORT TEMPS OF 80 DEG F EAST OF THE MTNS. ADD A COUPLE DEGREES                
FOR ADIABATIC EFFECTS AND TMAX LIKELY TO REACH L80S. THINK CLOUD                
COVER ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL NOT REALLY               
BE A PLAYER...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON. RECORD                   
TMAX SHOULD BE TESTED AT ROA...AND POSSIBLY BCB AND BLF...SEE                   
CLIMO SECTION FOR RECORDS.                                                      
NOT IMPRESSED BY PRECIP THREAT TODAY. MODELS WERE TOO WET                       
YESTERDAY AND BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON DIXON SEEMS TO BE THE                     
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THAT                            
SAID...REMOVED MENTION OF POPS TODAY...EXCEPT NORTH OF I64.                     
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE SFC FRONT IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TO THE                  
SOUTH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RIPPLES OF LOW                 
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVR THE NEXT              
36 HRS WITH WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA. THESE MCS FEATURES MAY SEND AN                  
OUTFL0W OUR WAY...SO CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHRA MAKING IT THIS                 
FAR SOUTH. MAIN THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD BE ACROSS               
THE NRN CWA...MORE SO FOR AREAS NORTH OF I64. HPC HAS HEAVIEST QPF              
THREAT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE MASON DIXON WHERE SEVERAL                
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY PER REPEAT SHRA/TSRA.                                  
FRONT IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH                  
NORTHEAST WINDS DRAWING COOLER DRYER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. DEEP               
RH APPEARS TO BE LACKING SO POPS MINIMAL.                                       
1035 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK...TO BE CENTERED OVR NJ MONDAY...THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE                 
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE ERN CWA WILL                   
FAIR THE BEST DURING THE PD WITH DRY AIR SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH                 
ERN VA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE                  
MTNS...PER OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST                    
UPSLOPE. ATTM MODELS ARE FOCUSING GREATEST RH OVR WRN NC...AND ON               
THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS (ERN TN/KY) WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND                    
WILL POOL MOISTURE THERE.                                                       
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORDS TODAY                                                                   
ROANOKE    80/1994                                                              
LYNCHBURG  91/1907                                                              
DANVILLE   86/1966                                                              
BLACKSBURG 80/1966                                                              
BLUEFIELD  76/1978                                                              
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM...AMS                                                                
CLIMATE...AMS                                                                   
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
147 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
EXPECT VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS WITH NO LOW RESTRICTION TO                 
CEILING OR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR TERMINAL                
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY.                                            
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL                  
MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER ALL BLACKSBURG TERMINAL FORECAST              
AREAS (ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG... DANVILLE...BLUEFIELD...LEWISBURG)                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT                   
WILL CAUSE COOL FRONT (CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM NEW                   
ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY) TO STALL NORTH OF THE                       
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME                 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS                 
SUCH AS AT LEWISBURG...ROANOKE...AND LYNCHBURG THIS MORNING...BUT               
ANY MID LEVEL CLOUD INTRUSION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND                    
CONFINED TO MORNING HOURS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 911 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
ALREADY SENT EARLIER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS                 
THE NW AND APPEARS BASED ON RADAR MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE A BIT MORE              
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL                 
S/W TROF ZIPPING BY TO THE NORTH TAKING MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED SHRA              
NORTH...WHILE INSTABILITY STILL LACKING ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE                  
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO PROVIDE A BREAK IN              
SHRA BEFORE NEXT WAVE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE MID MISS VALLEY CAUSES              
ANOTHER SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                      
OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THIS LIFT NORTH OF THE              
REGION WITH ONLY THE RUC/NAM PRODUCING SPOTTY COVERAGE GREENBRIER               
VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS. THINK BEST CHANCE OF A SHRA LIKELY IN THE                  
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PUSHES CONVERGENCE AXIS BACK               
NORTH. THUS TRIMMING POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED NATURE                 
EXTREME NW AND BASICALLY GOING DRY UNDER A MIX OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS               
CLOUDS INCLUDING SPOTTY STRATO-CU ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME               
MIXING AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT PLAN TO RAISE LOWS SOME BUT OVERALL                 
JUST BELOW MOS SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL SLOW TO RECOVER IN A FEW                   
LOCATIONS. ALSO LOWERING WIND GUSTS RIDGES PER LESS OVERTURNING                 
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 643 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NW WILL               
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NW                   
W/OUT THUNDER AS BEST SUPPORT PASSES NORTH. ALSO WITH SHRA HAVING               
A TOUGH TIME CROSSING THE NW SLOPES...WILL CUT POPS FARTHER SOUTH               
INTO SW VA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING.                
ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER SOME...OTRW REMAINDER UNCHANGED FOR NOW.                 
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS REGION...A WARM SOUTHERLY               
FLOW WILL PUSH SOME RICHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.                      
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL                     
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR WEST FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE            
OHIO VALLEY. THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING WELL                 
OUT AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THRU                 
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IT`S ANTICIPATED THAT THIS                     
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MARCHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE              
MAY BE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING THAT REACHES OUR WESTERN               
SLOPES AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA- ESPECIALLY WESTERN                     
GREENBRIER COUNTY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA               
FOR TONIGHT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NAM MOS VALUES. UNDERCUT              
DEW POINTS TONIGHT.                                                             
SFC FRONT MAKES IT TO NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY FRIDAY                       
MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE- THE ONE MOVG INTO THE                    
DAKOTAS...PUSHES THE FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY              
FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
FOR FRIDAY CLOSEST TO THE FRONT- HIGHEST IN SE WV. AGAIN...STAYED               
CLOSE TO NAM MOS TEMPS.                                                         
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD                 
AS A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS                   
EVEN A SFC REFLECTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING              
A GOOD CHC FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT- BUT STILL MAINLY IN NRN                     
SECTIONS AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO ABOUT THE ROA/LYH AREAS. WITH                 
THIS SOUTHWARD MVMNT COMING OVERNIGHT...THERE IS USUALLY A LITTLE               
BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN MODELS SHOW THOUGH...SO IT WILL LIKELY               
MAKE IT THE NC/VA BORDER IF NOT FURTHER. THIS FRONT WILL BE                     
STALLED ACROSS THE CWA SAT MORNING...AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AS A               
WARM FRONT...AND WILL PROVIDE A GOO SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR                    
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SAT...AND INCLUDED               
TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. I KEPT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MTNS              
SAT NIGHT-MAINLY SE WV. SHOULD BE MILD TEMPS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS                
IN THE WARM SECTOR. YET ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND PUSHES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE                
CWA. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN SUNDAY FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE- CHC IN              
THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN                 
THE EAST COAST MONDAY...WHILE THE SW RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE                    
APPALACHIANS MOVES A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. I               
HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS MONDAY FOR THIS WARM FRONT.              
FINALLY...WE HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE                   
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE OR WED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD SW FLOW OF MOISTURE              
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO I HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CHC POPS TUE WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE                   
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. ONCE                          
AGAIN...RETURN FLOW AND A WARM FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE              
MTNS THURSDAY- BUT JUST HAVE A LOW CHC AND MOST OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA SHOULD HAVE FAIR WEATHER.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WERT                                                                 
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
911 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
ALREADY SENT EARLIER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS                 
THE NW AND APPEARS BASED ON RADAR MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE A BIT MORE              
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL                 
S/W TROF ZIPPING BY TO THE NORTH TAKING MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED SHRA              
NORTH...WHILE INSTABILITY STILL LACKING ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE                  
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO PROVIDE A BREAK IN              
SHRA BEFORE NEXT WAVE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE MID MISS VALLEY CAUSES              
ANOTHER SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                      
OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THIS LIFT NORTH OF THE              
REGION WITH ONLY THE RUC/NAM PRODUCING SPOTTY COVERAGE GREENBRIER               
VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS. THINK BEST CHANCE OF A SHRA LIKELY IN THE                  
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PUSHES CONVERGENCE AXIS BACK               
NORTH. THUS TRIMMING POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED NATURE                 
EXTREME NW AND BASICALLY GOING DRY UNDER A MIX OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS               
CLOUDS INCLUDING SPOTTY STRATO-CU ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME               
MIXING AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT PLAN TO RAISE LOWS SOME BUT OVERALL                 
JUST BELOW MOS SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL SLOW TO RECOVER IN A FEW                   
LOCATIONS. ALSO LOWERING WIND GUSTS RIDGES PER LESS OVERTURNING                 
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 739 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING OVER SE WV ATTM...AND DO NOT THINK LWB                  
WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WITH IT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE                
GOING TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS CREATING A                 
VFR CIG. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST...CREATING               
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AT LWB LATE                
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST FROM LATE MORNING/EARLY              
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 643 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NW WILL               
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NW                   
W/OUT THUNDER AS BEST SUPPORT PASSES NORTH. ALSO WITH SHRA HAVING               
A TOUGH TIME CROSSING THE NW SLOPES...WILL CUT POPS FARTHER SOUTH               
INTO SW VA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING.                
ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER SOME...OTRW REMAINDER UNCHANGED FOR NOW.                 
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS REGION...A WARM SOUTHERLY               
FLOW WILL PUSH SOME RICHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.                      
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL                     
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR WEST FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE            
OHIO VALLEY. THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING WELL                 
OUT AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THRU                 
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IT`S ANTICIPATED THAT THIS                     
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MARCHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE              
MAY BE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING THAT REACHES OUR WESTERN               
SLOPES AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA- ESPECIALLY WESTERN                     
GREENBRIER COUNTY. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA               
FOR TONIGHT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NAM MOS VALUES. UNDERCUT              
DEW POINTS TONIGHT.                                                             
SFC FRONT MAKES IT TO NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY FRIDAY                       
MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE- THE ONE MOVG INTO THE                    
DAKOTAS...PUSHES THE FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY              
FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
FOR FRIDAY CLOSEST TO THE FRONT- HIGHEST IN SE WV. AGAIN...STAYED               
CLOSE TO NAM MOS TEMPS.                                                         
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD                 
AS A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS                   
EVEN A SFC REFLECTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING              
A GOOD CHC FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT- BUT STILL MAINLY IN NRN                     
SECTIONS AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO ABOUT THE ROA/LYH AREAS. WITH                 
THIS SOUTHWARD MVMNT COMING OVERNIGHT...THERE IS USUALLY A LITTLE               
BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN MODELS SHOW THOUGH...SO IT WILL LIKELY               
MAKE IT THE NC/VA BORDER IF NOT FURTHER. THIS FRONT WILL BE                     
STALLED ACROSS THE CWA SAT MORNING...AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AS A               
WARM FRONT...AND WILL PROVIDE A GOO SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR                    
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SAT...AND INCLUDED               
TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. I KEPT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MTNS              
SAT NIGHT-MAINLY SE WV. SHOULD BE MILD TEMPS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS                
IN THE WARM SECTOR. YET ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND PUSHES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE                
CWA. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN SUNDAY FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE- CHC IN              
THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN                 
THE EAST COAST MONDAY...WHILE THE SW RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE                    
APPALACHIANS MOVES A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. I               
HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS MONDAY FOR THIS WARM FRONT.              
FINALLY...WE HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE                   
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE OR WED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD SW FLOW OF MOISTURE              
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO I HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CHC POPS TUE WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE                   
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. ONCE                          
AGAIN...RETURN FLOW AND A WARM FRONT MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE              
MTNS THURSDAY- BUT JUST HAVE A LOW CHC AND MOST OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA SHOULD HAVE FAIR WEATHER.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM...JH                                                                 
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
140 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...AVIATION.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
BAND OF MVFR CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS IT MARCHES EAST OUT OF THE              
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER               
MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z. MVFR                
CLOUDS/CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED IFR WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SITES              
AFT 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT                  
ROA...LYH AND DAN. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN                 
TAF SITES AFT 06Z. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS                   
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE                  
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                            
UPDATE...SHORT TERM.                                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.                
THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST                 
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND OBS IMAGE SHOWED PATCHY LOW                  
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEAK COOL               
WEDGE WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.              
THIS MORNING RUC 950MB MOISTURE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF                    
STRATUS MIXING OUT LATE MORNING. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH               
FULL SUN WARM HIGHS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS WITH THE LOWER AND               
MID 70S FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF                  
THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. THE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION IN THE              
GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL EXPECT THE ONGOING                      
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES                      
LATER...AS IT OUTRUNS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT. FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS               
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME ON THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT TONIGHT AS THE GFS               
STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL DIGEST THE 12Z RUNS           
BEFORE MAKING AND ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT. UPDATED ISC GRIDS AND ZONES               
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
UPDATE...AVIATION                                                               
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ERODE THIS MORNING               
AS FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST....THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS                   
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH                    
02Z...THEN MVFR CLOUDS/CONVECTION MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION.                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 445 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH                   
WEDGE OF COOL AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.                       
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE                  
CWA.                                                                            
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...SOUTWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE                 
ALLOWING FOR DEMISE OF COOL WEDGE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOST               
AREAS SEEING SUN BY NOON TODAY.                                                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DEEPER                    
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY               
ENTERING THE OH VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON                      
UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)...DEBRIS FROM THIS                   
FEATURE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG AND NORTH              
OF 460 FOR THIS EVENING PER INCREASED CONFIDENCE THIS ACTIVITY                  
WILL REACH AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATTM HAVE                      
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDER PER THINKING THE ACTIVITY WILL                
WANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE MTNS. TIMING SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS TO                 
OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06 UTC (8PM-2AM).                                              
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY OUTFLOW THAT                
DRIFTS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT SHOULD MIX AWAY ON FRIDAY. SFC                      
SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FCST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION                
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS PENDING WHICH MODEL            
YOU LOOK AT...RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS FOR               
SATURDAY. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS LYNCHBURG...THE GFS FCSTING A               
TMAX OF 71 ON SATURDAY VERSUS THE NAM WHICH IS FCSTNG 83. ATTM                  
PREFER THE FCST WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS NOW...WHICH IS SOMETHING IN                
BETWEEN. THINK FRONT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST                  
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DON`T TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE REALLY WARM NAM               
EITHER SINCE ANTICIPATE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS PER UPSTREAM                        
CONVECTIVE DEBIS THAT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS              
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER OUTFLOW TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THUS COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST...IN                   
ADDITION TO THREAT OF QPF ACROSS THE NRN CWA PER CONVECTIVE                     
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
FOR NEXT WEEK...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS                 
FCST TO EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAIN PRECIPITATION                  
FOCUS FOR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                
IS FCST DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWA...SFC HIGH                    
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST...SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED               
THIS WEEK.                                                                      
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC              
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM THE               
MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.                                                      
COOL WEDGE OF AIR ALONG AND NEAR RIDGE AXIS...AND WEAK UPSLOPE                  
WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY HELPING TO                          
MAINTAIN/ADVECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE                
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS (DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...AND                   
EVENTUALLY ROANOKE). HOWEVER...DEPTH OF THIS COOL POOL IS QUITE                 
SHALLOW...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS QUITE LOW.                    
THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE MARGINAL FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS IN CEILING            
BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBITY AT THESE FORECAST POINTS THROUGH                 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY RAPID MIX OUT BY MID MORNING               
AS INSOLATION INCREASES...SUPPORTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF DRIER                 
AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.                   
TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (LEWISBURG AND                  
BLUEFIELD) SHOULD EXPERIENCE VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS WITH NO              
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL                 
OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LIMITED INFLUENCE OF COOL                
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.                      
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...07                                                                   
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SHORT TERM.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.                
THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST                 
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND OBS IMAGE SHOWED PATCHY LOW                  
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEAK COOL               
WEDGE WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.              
THIS MORNING RUC 950MB MOISTURE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF                    
STRATUS MIXING OUT LATE MORNING. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH               
FULL SUN WARM HIGHS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS WITH THE LOWER AND               
MID 70S FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF                  
THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. THE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION IN THE              
GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL EXPECT THE ONGOING                      
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES                      
LATER...AS IT OUTRUNS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT. FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS               
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME ON THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT TONIGHT AS THE GFS               
STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL DIGEST THE 12Z RUNS           
BEFORE MAKING AND ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT. UPDATED ISC GRIDS AND ZONES               
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
UPDATE...AVIATION                                                               
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ERODE THIS MORNING               
AS FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST....THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS                   
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH                    
02Z...THEN MVFR CLOUDS/CONVECTION MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION.                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 445 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH                   
WEDGE OF COOL AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.                       
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE                  
CWA.                                                                            
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...SOUTWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE                 
ALLOWING FOR DEMISE OF COOL WEDGE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOST               
AREAS SEEING SUN BY NOON TODAY.                                                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DEEPER                    
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY               
ENTERING THE OH VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON                      
UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)...DEBRIS FROM THIS                   
FEATURE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG AND NORTH              
OF 460 FOR THIS EVENING PER INCREASED CONFIDENCE THIS ACTIVITY                  
WILL REACH AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATTM HAVE                      
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDER PER THINKING THE ACTIVITY WILL                
WANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE MTNS. TIMING SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS TO                 
OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06 UTC (8PM-2AM).                                              
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY OUTFLOW THAT                
DRIFTS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT SHOULD MIX AWAY ON FRIDAY. SFC                      
SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FCST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION                
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS PENDING WHICH MODEL            
YOU LOOK AT...RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS FOR               
SATURDAY. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS LYNCHBURG...THE GFS FCSTING A               
TMAX OF 71 ON SATURDAY VERSUS THE NAM WHICH IS FCSTNG 83. ATTM                  
PREFER THE FCST WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS NOW...WHICH IS SOMETHING IN                
BETWEEN. THINK FRONT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST                  
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DON`T TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE REALLY WARM NAM               
EITHER SINCE ANTICIPATE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS PER UPSTREAM                        
CONVECTIVE DEBIS THAT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS              
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER OUTFLOW TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THUS COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST...IN                   
ADDITION TO THREAT OF QPF ACROSS THE NRN CWA PER CONVECTIVE                     
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
FOR NEXT WEEK...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS                 
FCST TO EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAIN PRECIPITATION                  
FOCUS FOR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                
IS FCST DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR CWA...SFC HIGH                    
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST...SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED               
THIS WEEK.                                                                      
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC              
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM THE               
MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.                                                      
COOL WEDGE OF AIR ALONG AND NEAR RIDGE AXIS...AND WEAK UPSLOPE                  
WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY HELPING TO                          
MAINTAIN/ADVECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE                
PIEDMONT TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS (DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...AND                   
EVENTUALLY ROANOKE). HOWEVER...DEPTH OF THIS COOL POOL IS QUITE                 
SHALLOW...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS QUITE LOW.                    
THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE MARGINAL FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS IN CEILING            
BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBITY AT THESE FORECAST POINTS THROUGH                 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY RAPID MIX OUT BY MID MORNING               
AS INSOLATION INCREASES...SUPPORTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF DRIER                 
AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE.                   
TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (LEWISBURG AND                  
BLUEFIELD) SHOULD EXPERIENCE VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS WITH NO              
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT ALL                 
OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LIMITED INFLUENCE OF COOL                
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.                      
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM...KK                                                                 
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
424 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION              
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AIMED AT                      
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE                  
WATERS WITHIN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OFF THE COAST ARE AROUND 1.25               
INCHES. A WIDE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AS                    
EVIDENT BY NWS SEATTLE RADAR WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. BASED               
ON THESE FACTORS AND THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN UNDER FORECASTING QPF                
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE WETTER WRF MODEL               
SOLUTION. HOWEVER EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING SOME TIMING                   
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE PRECIP WITH THE MODEL BEING TOO SLOW. THE                 
RUC MODEL IS ALSO WAY OFF...SO OVERALL THERE IS NO MODEL THAT IS                
CAPTURING THE CURRENT SITUATION THAT WELL...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE              
UKMET BUT WITH THIS MODEL THERE IS LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE.                      
THUS...HAD TO GO MAINLY OFF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR MAKING               
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...RAIN                
SHADOWING TO AN EXTENT WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY EAST               
OF THE CASCADES SUCH AS THE OKANOGAN AND WENATCHEE RIVER VALLEYS.               
OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS INTO NORTH IDAHO...LOW LEVEL                
UPSLOPE SOUTH FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THIS SAME IDEA WILL              
ALSO BE TRUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST. SOME RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY IN              
THE NEAR FUTURE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000                
FEET...AND WITH UPCOMING PRECIPITATION. JW                                      
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONG-WAVE               
PATTERN EVOLUTION IS GOOD THIS PERIOD AND FAIR ON THE SYNOPTIC                  
SCALE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN THE DEPICTION OF THE MOISTURE AND                
THERMAL FIELDS IN A RATHER MUSHY WESTERLY FLOW.                                 
SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL BE DEEPENING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN              
BC. THE CWA WILL LARGELY BE MOVING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE                  
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH VEERING WINDS FROM ABOUT THE SFC TO            
700 MB AND MODEST WAA IN THE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE                 
REMAINS MODESTLY MOIST TOO...BEFORE A BIT OF A DRY SLOT NUDGES IN               
DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD           
FRONT. AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO THE           
SOUTHEAST CWA AS WELL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE                  
MOISTURE AND DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE                 
MORNING...THUS THE NAM DEPICTS MUCH MORE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP THAN THE            
GFS. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE DOES SEEM TO BE IN THE AMOUNT OF                    
SATURATION/MOISTENING. AS A WHOLE THE NAM IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM AND MOISTURE SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT NOT BY MUCH                 
BECAUSE THERE IS GOOD PWAT FETCH INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS TRENDED           
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MOISTURE PROFILE OF THE NAM TOO. OVERALL FCST               
DEPICTS HIGH CHANCE TO LCL LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST THROUGH NERN               
CWA...INCLUDING THE SPOKANE/C`DA AREA...IN THE MORNING. THEN                    
IT APPEARS BEST FOCUSING SHIFTS NORTHWARD IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY            
FLOW.  ALSO SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOTTING COMES UP FROM THE           
SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS I CUT BACK POPS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON             
OVER THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN/PALOUSE/SPOKANE/C`DA AREA...REDUCING              
THEM TO SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MODESTLY               
HIGH...AVERAGING IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FT RANGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL             
BE ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES BY SOME 5-10 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE               
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA. THE EXACT VALUES MAY BE HAMPERED BY             
THE MORE CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...BUT ARE NONETHELESS EXPECTED TO BE              
MILD WHETHER THEY REACH SOME PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLD OF SAY 60 DEGS             
OR NOT IN PLACES LIKE SPOKANE/C`DA.                                             
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM IS                  
QUICKER THAN THE GFS MODEL BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS...AND THINKING GOES                 
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. EXPECTATION IS THE COLD FRONT              
PRECIP WILL BEGIN BETWEEN THE 00Z TO 06Z HOUR TIME FRAME.                       
THE FRONT IS STEEPLY SLOPED FOR SOME MECHANICAL FORCING...AND HAS THE           
ADDED SUPPORT OF SOME AT LEAST MARGINAL JET DYNAMICS AND AT LEAST A             
STRETCHED VORTICITY MAX...AS WELL AS PWAT VALUES OVER 0.70 INCHES.              
THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND LOOKS MODEST SO I HAVE CUT BACK              
POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BASIN FROM THE LOW LIKELY TO HIGH               
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE PRECIP RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST           
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH               
EASTWARD PASSING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE            
LOWERING TO BTW 3000 AND 4000 FT OVER WA AND NEAR 5000 FT IN IDAHO              
OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH             
THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH...WITH LCL HIGHER GUSTS. THOUGH ATTM              
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ANY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA BY ANY MEANS.            
SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT            
AND THE SMALLER VORT MAXES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER WAVE WILL MEAN A            
CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  SFC TEMPS            
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR                
7 DEG C ON SATURDAY TO NEAR -2 DEG C ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER               
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE                   
UNSTABLE AND MIXED ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 TO               
4500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                       
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND              
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL REDUCE POPS                
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY               
LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS FOUND EXCEPT                
OUTSIDE OF THE MTN ZONES...SO SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS             
IS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY IN THE MTN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO             
MODERATE SLIGHTLY COMPARED WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS WITH MORE SUN AND                
SLIGHTLY MILDER 850 MB TEMPS. /JCOTE                                            
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PROJECTION OF FILTERED FIVE WAVE                  
CHART OVER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PROMISE FOR               
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY               
NIGHT IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGE TROF THAT MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE              
COAST. A NUMBER OF GFS RUNS DEPICT A SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEM NESTED INSIDE THE LARGER TROF WHICH PASSES IN CLOSE                      
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES              
SO IT KEEPS A FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED MOISTURE CONNECTION VIA A                 
TAP STRAIGHT SOUTH NEAR MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN 700MB                  
THETA-E CONTOURS FEEDING IN A WRAP-AROUND FASHION INTO THE SURFACE              
LOW AS IT PASSES. HOW CLOSE THIS CLOSED LOW PASSES TO THE FORECAST              
AREA IS A BIG ISSUE. SOME RUNS HAVE PASSED IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE                 
SOUTH THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD BE HIGH AND DRY...BUT A               
NUMBER HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN THEIR DEPICTION TO KEEP THE               
HIGHEST POPS OF CHANCE AND LOW LIKELYS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST                
PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR LEWISTON AND VICINITY UP INTO SHOSHONE                  
COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS SURFACE LOW AND               
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT THE EARLIER                  
DISCUSSED LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS OVERHEAD. SOME MINOR               
NUISANCE SHORTWAVES MAY CROSS THE REGION AND ADDRESS THIS WITH LOW              
POPS FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN. A SECOND SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM                    
DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE AS A NORTHERN              
SIBERIAN AIRMASS MIGRATES OVER THE BEARING SEA. CYCLOGENESIS TAKES              
PLACE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES DOWN                 
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP DOWN                 
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO FROM NORTHEAST                       
TRAJECTORY...A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME SCENARIO. THERE HAS BEEN SOME                 
CONTINUITY IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF CYCLOGENESIS FORMING THIS SYSTEM              
BUT OF COURSE THE POINT OF ENTRY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AT              
WHAT TIME IN THE EXTENDED IS LESS CONSISTENT. COLD POOL ALOFT                   
CONTAINED IN THIS LOW DEMANDS RESPECT AS 500MB TEMPS ARE STILL                  
SHOWING -40 C CONTOURS AND ASSOCIATED 1.5 IPV SURFACES SHOW                     
LOWERING TO 750MB WHICH WOULD IMPLY QUITE A LOW TROP AND A                      
SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONDUCIVE TO NOT ONLY                
FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BUT A RETURN TO SPRINGTIME PRECIP TYPES SUCH AS              
GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOWFALL AT                 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAKING ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE A RARITY                 
UNDER THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF COURSE WITH              
SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY ARE NOW ACCUMULATIONS                
OVER LOWLANDS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME OVER 50 MIN OR SO WILL NOT BE              
AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE TO STAY ON THE LOOKOUT AND WATCH THE WATER                  
VAPOR CHANNEL FOR SIGNIFICANT DARKENING AT THE BASE OF THIS LOW                 
WHEN THE EVENT TIME COMES CLOSER. DPROG/DT FOR 00Z FRIDAY 30 MAR                
DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN POINT OF ENTRY FOR THIS SECOND                   
SYSTEM BUT DOES HAVE CONTINUITY IN BRINGING A SYSTEM OF SIMILAR                 
BUILD IN. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL NUDGE FORECAST IN THIS GENERAL                 
DIRECTION BUT NOT TOO DRASTICALLY IN TERMS OF KEEPING A LOW SNOW                
LEVEL TO ADDRESS GRAUPEL/SNOW FROM RESULTING SHOWERY CONDITIONS                 
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WIND GUSTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS WITH MORE OF              
A WESTERLY COMPONENT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO NOT STRAY                 
TOO FAR FROM CLIMO BUT THE CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY SURFACE                 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT                    
SYSTEM COULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHAT ON THE COLD SIDE OF              
NORMAL. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING A FEW                
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IF THE THE SECOND MORE POWERFUL LOW                  
COMES IN AS DEPICTED. ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR                     
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MIGHT BE TOSSED AROUND A BIT MORE AS THE                   
EVENT COMES CLOSER AND SOME SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN MINIMUM RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY AND FAIRLY MODERATE WIND OVER MOUNTAINS MIGHT OCCUR AS                 
LOW TROPE/STRATOSPHERIC AIR MIGHT PASS LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE IT                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD BE A PLUS IF VENTILATION IS YOUR ISSUE              
RATHER THAN CONTAINMENT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM             
IN THIS EVENING INTO THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A                  
THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER BUT STILL VFR CONDITIONS                 
REMAIN WITH PERHAPS SPOTTY MVFR NEAR PRECIP PRIMARILY DUE TO CIGS.              
THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW UP TO            
00Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING                     
ABOUT REPEAT STRATUS FORMATION IN THE SPOKANE VICINITY IN THE 10-20Z            
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        43  60  40  51  30  53 /  50  50  70  20  10  10                 
COEUR D`ALENE  42  59  41  51  29  53 /  50  50  70  20  10  10                 
PULLMAN        41  62  44  52  31  54 /  10  20  60  40  10  10                 
LEWISTON       45  69  47  57  35  59 /   0  10  60  40  10  10                 
COLVILLE       42  60  35  51  28  53 /  50  50  70  20  20  10                 
SANDPOINT      40  58  35  50  31  51 /  60  60  70  40  20  10                 
KELLOGG        41  60  40  50  30  52 /  30  20  70  40  20  10                 
MOSES LAKE     45  64  39  58  30  60 /  30  30  50  10  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      44  61  39  56  34  59 /  20  40  50  10  10  10                 
OMAK           43  60  35  58  27  57 /  40  40  50  10  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
915 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AREA OF              
STRATUS CLOUDS HAD ERODED IN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.               
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT                      
SPREAD...FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS SAME AREA...SPECIFICALLY OVER                
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.                                    
LATEST RUC SUPPORTED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING DURING THE                       
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG SHOULD                  
CONTINUE TO THICKEN/DEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.                        
WILL KEEP CLOSE MONITOR ON VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING.                           
ADDED FOG IN APPROPRIATE ZONES OF CURRENT DATA BASE...AS WELL AS                
RAISED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATED                   
ZONES SHOULD BE ISSUED AROUND 0230Z THIS EVENING.                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
355 AM MDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY              
SNOW IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS                 
TODAY.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO               
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUING ON THIS TRACK                  
SHOULD TAKE THE UPPER LOW TO POINTS JUST EAST OF DENVER BY THIS                 
AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES            
ALREADY RANGING FROM AROUND 0.55 IN BOULDER TO AROUND 0.85 NEAR THE             
EASTERN BORDER.  THESE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE AS DEEPER              
MOISTURE MOVES IN.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY FAVORABLE                
WITH DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE                 
COLUMN.                                                                         
PLATTEVILLE PROFILER ALREADY SHOWS FLOW TURNING MORE EASTERLY AND               
DEEPENING.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS WERE QUICKLY SPREADING IN ACROSS              
THE FRONT RANGE.  WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GETS HERE AROUND DAYBREAK.                 
HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS ON THE MESOSCALE WHICH COULD                 
INFLUENCE AMOUNT OF PRECIP...NOT TO MENTION SNOW LEVELS.                        
THE NAM-WRF AND RUC 13 ARE VERY SIMILAR ON THE DETAILS REGARDING THE            
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE.  HOWEVER...THE GFS IS                
MORE DISORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE                  
RELATED TO HOW ITS HANDLING CONVECTIVE ISSUES AND MASSIVE LATENT                
HEAT RELEASE OVER THE PLAINS.  ONE WOULD LIKE TO THINK THE NAM-WRF              
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND FOLKS BACK AT NCEP AGREE THAT THE               
GFS IS TOO ELONGATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...ITS ALSO KNOWN              
THAT THE NAM-WRF CAN ALSO BE A BIT TOO DEEP ON THESE SITUATIONS AS              
WELL.  CANADIAN GIVES FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTION SO             
WILL PAINT UP A PRETTY NASTY PICTURE FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.             
REGARDING SNOW LEVEL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS              
SUPPORT SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY HANGING AROUND 8000 FEET.  ITS HIGHER              
THAN THAT NOW IN MOST SPOTS BUT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND                  
HIGHER PRECIP RATES AND MELTING SHOULD MORE THAN OFFSET ANY DAYTIME             
EFFECTS.  CONVECTION COULD ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO LESS               
THAN 7500 FEET AT TIMES.  BOTTOM LINE...WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE AND             
INSTABILITY...AND IF UPSLOPE IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED...WE WILL BE            
LOOKING AT 2-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS             
AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.             
THIS WOULD CREATE A TRAVEL NIGHTMARE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.                       
ON THE PLAINS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON.                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL WHICH MEANS A                  
RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE             
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF ONE OR             
TWO SEVERE STORMS FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE                     
JULESBURG AREA LIKE SPC HAS PAINTED.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO              
AS CONVERGENCE ZONE WOULD ACT TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND               
LCLS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL.                                       
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND              
FOOTHILLS AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO AND DOWNSLOPE            
FLOW KICKS IN.                                                                  
AS FAR AS AVIATION CONCERNS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN               
AND LOW CIGS TIL 00Z...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS                 
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.                                               
.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE OF AREA BY 12Z SUN            
WITH LINGERING PCPN ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MTNS THU THE MORNING                   
HOURS.  TEMPS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY ON SUN WITH HIGHS RISING BACK              
INTO THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO.  FOR MON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                 
BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.  THIS SHOULD               
LEAD TO A DRY AND MILD PTRN WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S TO              
LOWER 70S ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 TEMP FIELDS.                   
BY TUE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL              
SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  WITH                     
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING LAPSE RATES COULD SEE               
SOME WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN THE MTNS TUE AFTN.  OVER NERN CO STG                
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE                     
INTENSIFIES FROM CENTRAL WYOMING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY                
ALLOW FOR DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO ERN PLAINS BY                
AFTN.  TEMPS OVER NERN CO SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON AS 850-700 MB                
TEMPS ARE THE SAME.  FOR TUE NIGHT A DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE             
FOOTHILLS AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE NERN PLAINS EVENING AS COOLING            
ALOFT AND SOME QG ASCENT DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.  THUS COULD SEE SOME            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUE EVENING ALONG DRY LINE BEFORE IT                      
EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  CURRENT GFS                
WIND FIELDS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS SO                  
THINGS COULD BE RATHER INTERESTING TUE EVENING ESPECIALLY JUST EAST             
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  IN THE MTNS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS              
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RGN TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH              
STEEP LAPSE RATES DECENT QG ASCENT.  THUS SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHC             
OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  OVER NERN CO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO              
TRACK ACROSS WYOMING WITH STG DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS.  THUS            
MAY SEE A BORA HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED                  
ACROSS NERN CO.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER OVER NERN CO WITH                  
READINGS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.                                            
FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OROGRAPHICS SNOWS IN THE            
MTNS AS CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH NWLY             
FLOW ALOFT.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE NWLY              
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.  TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL                  
NORMALS OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.                                  
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL                   
  6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ZONES 35 AND 36.            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE FRONT RANGE                
  MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34.                                                  
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH PARK...ZONE 37.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BARJENBRUCH/KLEYLA                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
257 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY             
DIMINISHING OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. RUC13 INITIALIZED WELL                
WITH RAINFALL AND SFC TEMPS...SO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS FOR POPS                
AND HIGH TEMPS.                                                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH FROM              
ROUGHLY COLUMBUS OH TO DES MOINES IA. STRONG 500MB RIDGE IS LOCATED             
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.             
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS STILL GENERATING             
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR INDIANA COUNTIES AS IT MOVES NE AROUND THE RIDGE.            
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA...BUT WILL                
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR NERN CWA UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. THINK              
I WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND WILL HANDLE RESIDUAL                   
SHOWERS WITH NOWCASTS.                                                          
SHORT-RANGE MODELS MOVE THE 585DM LINE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. THUS WILL REMOVE POPS             
FROM THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND BECAUSE OF                
THIS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A TAD...TOWARD RUC13 VALUES OF LOW 80S               
SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH (SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF RAW GFS AND MET                 
GUIDANCE VALUES).                                                               
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD                        
TONIGHT...AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW TO SE...VERY CLOSE TO OUR NERN              
CWA BORDER. MOS POPS AT LEX RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT. REALLY THINK              
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO OUR NE...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE                
WILL INSERT A SLT CHC POP ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA...MAINLY NE OF A              
SALEM IN TO WINCHESTER KY LINE AFTER 21Z. WILL END SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.                                              
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW RUC TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH UPPER 50S               
NNE...TO MID-TO-LOW 50S DOWN SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                   
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                                  
ANOMALOUS RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE             
OVER 5820M ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH IS AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WHILE NOT                 
SETTING RECORD HIGHS...WILL APPROACH THEM. IF AMPLE SUN IS AVAILABLE            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.                          
THIS RIDGING WILL CORRESPOND TO TROUGHING OUT WEST. ON SUNDAY...ONE             
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH         
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.               
THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE DESERT                          
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY TO MOVE EAST              
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
THE GFS 925MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES  17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON                       
GIVEN GOOD INSOLATION...MONDAY MAY HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF             
ALL. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES ALL THE WAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES...FEEL THAT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY. FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE TRIGGER                         
MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.                                                      
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY               
WILL SERVE TO KICK OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS OPEN TROUGH SHOULD            
WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN             
STATES...AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS OKLAHOMA BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE              
GFS TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL                    
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF            
THIS TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR POPS TUESDAY AND               
ADD CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                      
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST              
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY REDUCED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO               
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.                                                         
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                          
TROUGHING WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS STRONG             
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY              
AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY. WITH OUR FORECAST              
AREA STILL UNDER RIDGING...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF                    
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.                              
JSD                                                                             
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                         
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL BE SLIM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND ALL SITES             
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE AT LEX            
AND SDF FROM CURRENT HOUR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. JUST A FEW            
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN BWG`S VICINITY.                                         
IN THE 18-24 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY TO              
OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND ORIENT ITSELF IN A NW TO              
SE FASHION THIS EVENING...COMING CLOSE TO THE LEX TAF SITE. STEEP               
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AN ISLD SHRA WITH THIS               
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MAY BEEF UP            
CLOUD COVER AT LEX AFTER 21Z. EXPECTING TO BE CAPPED JUST ENOUGH                
THAT PRECIP WOULD STAY NE OF THE SDF AND LEX TAF SITES.                         
WILL REMOVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS BASED ON VWPS FROM                   
REGIONAL RADARS AND MOST RECENT SDF ACARS SOUNDING. THE CURRENT AND             
FORECAST 1-2KFT WINDS ARE ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KTS...AND WITH SFC WINDS             
AT LEAST 5 KTS...LLWS CRITERIA IS NOT MET AND SHOULD NOT BE MET                 
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FROM 15-22Z AT SDF AND               
LEX...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO...BUT NOTHING OUT OF HAND.                     
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
425 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE            
REGION TODAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LOCATED                   
APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE RTE 460 CORRIDOR...WITH LGT NNE FLOW NORTH              
OF THIS AND S FLOW ACRS INLAND SRN VA AND NC ZONES. MSAS 3 HR                   
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE WEAKENING SHOWING THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS            
NOT REALLY PUSHING ANY FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE A                
VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY...EXPECTING                
LOWER 80S FROM SOUTH HILL TO BERTIE COUNTY NC...WITH A HIGH AROUND              
50 AT OCEAN CITY MD. NO SINGLE GUIDANCE FWC/MAV/MET WAS FOLLOWED AS             
NO MODEL SEEMS TO BE ACCURATELY RESOLVING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS                
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OVERALL HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOST                      
GUIDANCE ACRS NE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS (SUCH AS                 
ORF) WHERE ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND A                 
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR INLAND SRN VA ND NC ZONES.                            
AS FOR POPS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FROM PREV                         
FCST...NOT MUCH FORCING TODAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY (CURRENTLY               
SEEN ON WV SATL OUT IN MINNESOTA) WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ACRS             
PA LATER THIS AFTN. IN LOWER LVLS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW          
AND IS WEAKENING/RETREATING BACK NORTH A LITTLE. BEST CHANCES FOR               
PRECIP WILL BE ACRS NORTHERN AREAS MORE MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT                  
EVEN HERE CAPPED POPS AT 40%...ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE MENTION THIS                  
MRNG FOR ERN SHORE/NRN NECK. FARTHER SOUTH...KEPT FCST DRY THIS                 
MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING                   
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE                    
CANNOT RULE OUT A 20 POP FOR A SHWR EVEN IN SRN ZONES. BOTH GFS                 
AND NAM SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE AND NEG LI VALUES INTO              
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH VERY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES                 
(H5 TO H7) KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.                                
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENCE INTO ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS                 
SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA IN EARNEST               
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH 20 POPS SW TO 50% POPS NE               
TONIGHT...THEN DRY ON SUNDAY. MODEL TRNDS SHOW THE SFC HIGH TO BE               
A FEW MB WEAKER...SO THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS                
ON SUNDAY (HAVE GONE PTLY CLOUDY/MSTLY SUNNY FAR NE SECTIONS).                  
HIGHS WILL AGAIN SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT BETWN WARMER SW AND COOLER              
NE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SATURDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRINGLIKE                    
PATTERN OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ALONG           
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE NATION...BUT E OF THE APPALACHIANS WE WILL               
BE SUBJECT TO PERIODIC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS...THE NEXT                
ONE LOOKING TO BE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON                  
WITH WARMING TREND TUE/WED...THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN LATE IN                 
THE WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW     
DEGREES THU/FRI BUT STILL REMAINED ABOVE NEW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED INTO SRN VA THE PAST CPL OF HRS. GENLY USING              
03Z RUC FOR ERY PT OF TAFS (THROUGH 15Z)...WHICH SHOWED FNT SETTLING            
S INTO PTS OF NE NC. WND DRCTNS TRICKY INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC AFT 15Z            
THROUGH 06Z/25...LEANED TWD A MR ESE SOLN...W/ SPDS AOB 10 KT. SBY              
SHOULD KP WNDS ENE...THEN SHIFT TO SE LT. LWR CIGS SHOULD RMN                   
SUFFICIENTLY N OF FNTL BNDRY TDA...W/ BEST SHOT AT PDS OF MVFR/IFR              
AT SBY. LMTD SHRA PTNTL TO SBY ATTM.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NOT EXACTLY THE STRNGST LLVL PUSH FM THE NE THE PAST SVRL HRS W/                
FNTL BNDRY SETTLING INTO SRN WTRS. WL HV ALL AREAS W/ DRCTN N OR NE             
TDA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT MR E OR SE B4 THE DAY IS OVR. CONDS RMN BLO            
SCA THROUGH 1ST PT OF TNGT. MR SGFNT LLVL SURGE FM THE N XPCTD LT               
TNGT/SUN MRNG W/ EXITING S/W OFF THE CST PUSHING FNTL BNDRY S OF                
WTRS. XPCTG PD OF LO END SCAS VRY LT TNGT UNTIL ERY SUN AFTN (IF NOT            
QUITE FOR SPDS...AT LEAST FOR SEAS ON OCN) B4 CONDS SUBSIDE LT                  
SUN/SUN NGT. WNDSHFT FM ENE TO SSW XPCTD MON INTO TUE...W/ YET                  
ANOTHER BKDR FNT SETTLING ACRS THE WTRS MIDWEEK.                                
.TIDES...                                                                       
DEPARTURES RUNNING ABT 1/2 FOOT TO 1 FOOT BLO NRML THROUGH                      
TDA...THEN GUID RAISES DEPARTURES TO NR NRML TNGT/SUN.                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BROWN                                                              
LONG TERM...BROWN                                                               
AVIATION...25                                                                   
MARINE...25                                                                     
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS              
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THIS FAST FLOW...SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST             
IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT/WRN ND. RADARS                
SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF ECHOES ACROSS ND/SRN MANITOBA ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS THAT HAVE                   
INDICATED -SHRA IN NRN ND/SE SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA TODAY. WELL              
TO THE W... SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES 2-3 DAYS               
AGO OVER THE W COAST AND BECAME A MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST            
S OF AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN IN THIS MORNING FOR THE NRN              
TIER OF THE FCST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE FROM NRN MN MOVES ACROSS THE             
FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WITH                  
MID-LVL RDGG IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR            
FROM W TO E IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE                  
AREA...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THERE. MIXING TO                
AROUND 850 MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S             
TO LOWER 60S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR.                                             
TONIGHT...SFC RDG AND ASSOC VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE                  
AREA(PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH) AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE             
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS                
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S PER MOS GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS            
AFTER 06Z HOWEVER AS WINDS BECOME SE ON BACKSIDE OF RDG. HIGHER                 
DWPNTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ADVECTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SE             
FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE FOR FAR WEST COULD BRING TEMPS UP             
SOME BEFORE SUNRISE.                                                            
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING A                    
SHRTWV...REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW U.S...INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z UKMET IS STILL SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE             
GFS/CANADIAN AND NAM. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF GFS/NAM AND               
CANADIAN FOR DETAILS. INITIAL SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING            
OVER WI BDR COUNTIES WITH STRONG WAA AT NOSE OF 30-40 KT 850 MB JET             
AND PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH. 850 MB THETA-E              
RDG ALSO MOVES IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH DECREASING 850-500 MB                   
THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND UPR DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF. SCT              
STORMS FORMING IN THE SW FCST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL SPREAD NE                
ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP Q-VECT CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD            
OF THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT SUPPORTING              
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWFA. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG              
OFF MODEL SNDGS ALONG WITH DEEP LYR SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KT AND SRH            
APPROACHING 300 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. SPC               
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF THE WEST AND SCNTRL FCST AREA              
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 7-8 KFT               
RANGE WOULD ARGUE FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE BIGGEST THREAT ESPECIALLY               
AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE BY LATE AFT AND EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY           
DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL BUT SINCE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY              
PROGRESSIVE WOULD NOT EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN                
INCH.                                                                           
MON...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO END OVER THE WEST EARLY AND E BY AFTERNOON            
AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS E AND RDGING/QVECTOR DIV BUILD IN BEHIND               
IT. EXPECTED SUNSHINE WITH WRLY FLOW AND 900 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 10C             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO LOWER 60S ESPECIALLY OVER WRN FCST               
AREA. LINGERING SFC TROF...POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND NW FLOW EXPECTED                 
BEHIND THE TROF COULD KEEP ERN COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 50S.                       
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS MID-LVL RIDGE STAYS               
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
101 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE...WILL                  
MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST AROUND MID MORNING.                  
LOOK FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS                
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT                 
AND MOST OF THE DAY.                                                            
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH #73 FOR STERLING COUNTY.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAD ONE SUPERCELL MOVE               
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST CROCKETT COUNTY. THIS STORM IS NOW OVER                
UPTON COUNTY. THE CHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...AS INCREASING                
LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS...MAINLY            
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  21                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THAN WHAT WE                
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS INVADE ONCE                 
AGAIN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                  
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JCT AND BBD WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE              
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AREAS                  
AGAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISBYS NOT                
CERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AGAIN TIMING                
AND LOCATIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.              
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS IN LATTER FORECAST ONCE                
THESE BECOME BETTER DETERMINED.                                                 
BRAZZELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN                 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE                  
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO                 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW                   
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE                
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW                           
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN                 
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE               
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT              
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE              
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN              
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE                
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN               
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.                                
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED                
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF                  
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.               
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY                    
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A                 
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING                   
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL                   
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT               
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL                
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  59  71  57  70 /  30  30  40  50                                       
SAN ANGELO  61  70  58  70 /  30  50  50  50                                    
JUNCTION  59  69  58  70 /  40  50  70  50                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
315 AM PDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BRING MILD AND WET WEATHER                  
TO MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE               
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH              
THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND EASING THE WET WEATHER THREAT. THIS DRIER              
WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MUCH COOLER                 
AND WETTER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE PIX THIS MORNING DEPICT AN                        
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRAIN EXTENDING FROM NW OF THE HAWAIIAN                     
ISLANDS TO SC BC. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HANDLE THIS PLUME               
SIMILARLY...THEY DON`T SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP                   
SITUATION ALL THAT WELL. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT SOLID                  
PRECIP EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE IDAHO               
PANHANDLE. MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION              
OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT THROUGH THE 295-305K LAYER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A                  
SIMILAR SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THIS MOISTURE BAND...BUT KEEP                      
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES FAR TOO LARGE. FORTUNATELY THE             
RUC SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE SITUATION QUITE WELL...BUT THIS                    
SOLUTION ONLY EXTENDS TO 18Z AT THIS TIME. THE RUC SUGGESTS THE                 
PLUME WILL ONLY NUDGE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...PERHAPS                 
EASING THE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE SE ZONES...BUT PRECIP OVER                 
THE NE QUARTER OF THE CWA LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET THROUGH THE                     
MORNING. DESPITE THE DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT POTENTIAL...NOT TOO               
SURE MUCH PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES DUE TO                 
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. LATER TODAY...WE EXPECT               
THIS PLUME TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER AS THE TRAILING                  
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE WA COAST. THIS PLACES AN IMPRESSIVE                
WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND RESULTS IN                    
RATHER MILD TEMPS. BUFR SOUNDING AND RAW SFC TEMPS SUGGEST THE MOS              
NUMBERS ARE TOO LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS PUSH ABOVE               
10C OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE CWA. IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY...IE SANDPOINT...COLVILLE...BONNERS FERRY...THE                 
MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL AND TEMPS COULD FALL AT OR BELOW               
MOS VALUES.                                                                     
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH                  
THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING THE TRAILING COLD               
FRONT TO TRACKTHROUGH THE INLAND NW. SIGNIFICANT LIFTING AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A FRONTAL DEPTH TO           
AROUND 600 MBS WITH DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING ABOVE. STILL NOT              
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AS              
THE 700 MB WINDS NEVER DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE WEST...BUT FARTHER                 
EAST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MUCH OF               
ITS EASTERLY MOMENTUM AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE                
MEAN 700-500 MB FLOW. THIS COULD LEAVE THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE               
PALOUSE...LEWISTON AND BLUE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z AND SUGGESTS THE                
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THE GFS SEEMS TO ACCURATELY                   
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO...WHEREAS THE NAM IS A BIT TO PROGRESSIVE. AS FOR POST     
FRONTAL SHOWERS...THE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GOOD WITH VERY LITTLE                 
POST FRONTAL CUMULUS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS               
A BIGGER QUESTION FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE POST FRONTAL WIND               
POTENTIAL. CLIMATOLOGICALLY LATE NIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGES SEEM TO              
LACK MUCH OF THE PUNCH SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS UNLESS THEY ARE                  
VERY STRONG. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE NAM. SINCE THE UPPER               
LEVEL COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS A LITTLE LACKLUSTER AND THE                
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH THE WEAKER WINDS FORECAST              
BY THE GFS SEEM A LITTLE MORE ACCURATE AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS                
WE SHOULD SEE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FX                
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE MODELS EXHIBIT RELATIVELY DECENT                
AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST                      
BUILDING RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA AND REALLY                    
DRYING OUT THE COLUMN...MODEL DISCREPANCIES REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW                
UP STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE                
PERIOD.                                                                         
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASICALLY CARBON COPIES OF EACH OTHER EXCEPT              
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP ABOUT 2C FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY                    
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY AS                
BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING DAYS FROM AT LEAST 850 MB WITH                  
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB.                 
WITH WEAKER SATURATION ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY AT THE TOP OF THE                  
UNSTABLE LAYER...BELIEVE MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT                          
CLEARER...BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT               
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW BOTH                 
AFTERNOONS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY DUE TO VERY COLD AIR                          
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OR                 
THUNDER EITHER DAY GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG                 
OFF THE GFS.                                                                    
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT 500 MB WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC HAS                      
DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND CLOSED OFF AS IT CAME ON SHORE INTO                  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TONIGHT SEEM TO BE IN MUCH BETTER                   
AGREEMENT FOR TRACKING THE 500 MB LOW INTO EITHER NORTHERN                      
CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN OREGON BY 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE                     
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL RATHER                 
STARK. THE ECMWF NEVER COMPLETELY CLOSES OFF THE 500 MB WAVE                    
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND DGEX BOTH CLOSE OFF A 500              
MB LOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WHILE LEAVING                
ANOTHER CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE LOW FARTHER TO ITS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN              
OREGON. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AFTER THIS POINT AND              
COMES INTO STEP WITH THE GFS ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH THE DAY                  
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF OREGON INTO                     
CENTRAL IDAHO. THE DGEX TRACKS THE LOW MODESTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST.              
WHILE ALL THIS IS OCCURRING...A SECOND UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIVE                 
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF                     
CANADA...LOWERING 250 MB HEIGHTS OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS                  
SEEMS TO CAUSE A COMPENSATORY DROP IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OFF THE COAST              
AND WITH NEARLY STATIONARY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG AND JUST EAST               
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SHIFTS THE ORIENTATION OF THE                       
ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER WAVES TO A NEGATIVE TILT. BY DOING                     
SO...THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND UPPER WAVE TAKES ON A MORE              
MERIDIONAL TRAJECTORY RATHER THAN ZONAL AND AS A RESULT...A STRONG              
UPPER JET COUPLE TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN                    
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE GFS AND DGEX BOTH INDICATE NORTHEASTERLY                
FLOW BELOW 700 MB DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE AND 850 MB LOW THAT               
SHOULD TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN                        
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER JET COUPLET.                            
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AXIS OF DEFORMATION SHOW UP AT THE                        
SURFACE...850 MB...AND 700 MB ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE                  
CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THIS...MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT IN THE 290-300K LAYER AS WELL AS THE BENT BACK                        
MONTGOMERY STREAMFUNCTION FIELDS ON THE ISOBARS AT 295K SUGGEST                 
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BLUES NORTHWARD              
THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS MOISTURE IS                      
TRANSPORTED INTO THE DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WET BULB COOLING                  
EFFECTS SHOULD MARKEDLY COOL THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT                 
WHILE COOLING FROM RAPID ASCENT/DYNAMICAL COOLING AND                           
ADIABATIC EXPANSION OF AIR WILL AIDE IN COOLING THE COLUMN. THIS                
WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP RAPIDLY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON               
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB LOW...AND LIKELY LEAD TO               
A ZONE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR TO OR                 
JUST TO THE EAST OF SPOKANE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE AFTERNOON                    
TUESDAY GOES ON AND SYSTEM BEINGS TO LIFT OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
HANGS AROUND BUT INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO DIABATIC WARMING                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE                    
ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS                    
PRAIRIE MAY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THESE                    
AREAS. THE DGEX AND GFS ARE PICKING UP ON COPIOUS QPF AMOUNTS FOR               
THE BLUES AND UP TO A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MOST                   
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...AM VERY                  
GLAD THE MODELS HAVE A COUPLE DAYS TO SORT THINGS OUT...BUT 18Z                 
AND 00Z CYCLES WERE RATHER OMINOUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT                 
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT                 
INTO TUESDAY.                                                                   
BEYOND TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS DOWN THE COAST BY THE                
END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z MODELS SHIFTED ITS TRACK NORTH INTO                    
BRITISH COLUMBIA WHEREAS EARLIER RUNS BROUGHT IT SIGNIFICANTLY                  
FARTHER SOUTHWARD WHICH WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN SOME UNSEASONABLY                
COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES                        
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND GIVEN LACK OF FAITH IN THE                 
00Z CYCLE FOR THE PERIOD...WILL NOT BE CHANGING THE CURRENT                     
PACKAGE. /FRIES                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WITH ORIGINS NORTH OF HAWAII            
WILL SPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH 06Z              
SUNDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CASCADES AND             
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.            
STRATOCUMULUS MAY DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z IN THE              
SPOKANE AND VICINITY. /GKOCH                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        61  42  53  30  57  32 /  70  60  20  10  10  30                 
COEUR D`ALENE  60  42  53  29  56  31 /  70  70  30  10  10  30                 
PULLMAN        63  44  54  31  56  32 /  40  60  50  10  10  50                 
LEWISTON       71  47  59  35  60  34 /  20  60  40  10  10  40                 
COLVILLE       58  39  53  28  56  30 /  80  70  20  20  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      57  41  51  31  54  32 /  70  70  30  20  10  30                 
KELLOGG        57  40  52  30  54  31 /  70  80  80  20  10  50                 
MOSES LAKE     67  43  59  30  60  33 /  40  40  10  10  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      63  40  57  32  60  35 /  40  40  10  10  10  10                 
OMAK           61  39  59  27  59  30 /  60  70  10  10  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
905 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE            
BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE                     
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SEND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES...HOWEVER THIS               
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH            
A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN OVERHEAD.                            
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK FROM THE WESTERN             
ATLANTIC OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN NO BIG HURRY              
TO EXIT THE REGION AND SHOULD ACTUALLY BE RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER                
RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST BY VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                 
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OFF TO               
OUR WEST HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE BREAKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER            
RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAINLY THE RESULT OF SOME BROAD MID/UPPER               
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315-325K SURFACES. THIS LIFT IS                 
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE                 
WEEKEND AND LATEST NAM RH FIELDS ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF             
THIS MOISTURE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST            
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...WOULD NOT EXPECT            
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                
SOME PATCHY FOG SEEN IN THE FIRST HOUR TO TWO AFTER SUNRISE IS                  
BURNING OFF RAPIDLY. KTLH AND KVLD WERE BOTH ABLE TO PICK UP SOME               
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH KVLD DOWN                
UNDER TWO MILES FOR A TIME. THIS FOG HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND NO               
SERIOUS TRAVEL CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE THE FOG FINISHES                  
BURNING OFF THIS MORNING.                                                       
STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY PLEASANT...ALTHOUGH WARM AFTERNOON FOR                
EARLY SPRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HERE IN              
THE MID MORNING HOURS RAPIDLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S ON THE WAY TO            
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES. THOSE PERSONS HEADED TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE             
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A                   
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE...BOTH WIND              
AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP                 
CURRENTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBLEM IS AT VLD WITH 100-FT CIGS. THIS SHOULD            
BURN OFF BY 1330Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE                 
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING               
WITH BASES IN THE 4000 TO 6000-FT RANGE LASTING UNTIL 00Z. A SEA                
BREEZE WILL KICK IN ONCE AGAIN AT PFN AROUND 18-19Z AND LAST FOR A              
FEW HOURS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FOG                        
AGAIN...MAINLY 2-3 MILES...EXCEPT AT VLD WHERE VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS             
ARE PREDICTED.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  85 52 86 56 84/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
PANAMA CITY  80 60 84 61 82/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
DOTHAN       84 56 86 59 82/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
ALBANY       85 55 87 58 83/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
VALDOSTA     85 54 86 57 83/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
CROSS CITY   85 52 86 57 83/ 0 0 0 0 10                                         
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING                  
     FOR ALL BUT FRANKLIN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE REMAINING              
     FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES.                                                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR ALL BUT FRANKLIN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE REMAINING              
     FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES.                                                     
     MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BOTH BIG BEND AND EASTERN              
     PANHANDLE BEACHES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.                         
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/WATSON                                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1055 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                  
CHANCES TO 80% OVER MCLEAN COUNTY TOO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BUSY DAY              
ESPECIALLY FROM FULTON...TAZEWELL AND MCLEAN COUNTIES NORTH WHERE               
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS               
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALREADY MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN FULTON               
COUNTY AND EXTENDING NW INTO IOWA. ISSUED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM                
FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 130 PM FOR NORTHERN FULTON AND SOUTHERN PEORIA             
COUNTY AND THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A FLOOD WARNING IF                      
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. MILD HIGHS AROUND 70F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER               
70S SE IL WHERE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST 30% CHANCE OF A SHOWER              
OR THUNDERSTORM FROM I-70 SOUTH.                                                
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IN/IL INTO               
SOUTHERN IOWA...NUDGING JUST NORTH OF I-80. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS             
WEST TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/NE/KS BORDER. TEMPS                  
ALREADY IN THE MID 60S WITH DANVILLE UP TO 70F WHILE MOIST DEWPOINTS            
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LIKE YESTERDAY. ALOFT A 563 DM 500 MB             
CUTOFF LOW WAS NEAWR THE EASTERN CO/NM BORDER WHILE 589 DM 500 MB               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP             
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROPICAL PLUM OF MOISTURE FLOWING FROM MEXICO               
AND SOUTH PACIFIC UP INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS TO KEEP HEAVY RAIN                  
THREAT NORTH OF LINCOLN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD                 
WATCH FOR NORTHERN 8 COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.                               
RUC AND WRF NOW KEEPING WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN IL NEAR I-80 THIS                
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS OF               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE IL TO BE               
MUCH DRIER AGAIN TODAY WITH JUST A 30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH                
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. 12Z KILX AND KDVN SOUNDINGS SOME SOME DRYING AT             
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO                 
YESTERDAY. BUT SPC STILL KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS              
OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO KS/NE. COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL FROM PEORIA              
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT                    
LIGHTNING. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 70F NORTH TO MID TO UPPER              
70S IN SE IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A DRIER DAY SUNDAY                  
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE                   
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE RAIN                          
CHANCES...AS REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST W/SW UPPER FLOW PATTERN.                 
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNSEASONABLY                
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL               
ILLINOIS...WITH CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER                   
WEST...QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM KANSAS                      
SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE              
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 40 TO 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS               
THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                                
MORNING...PROVIDING A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT ACROSS                 
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS DROP BOUNDARY INTO THE                  
NORTHERN KILX CWA...THUS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY SYNOPTIC LIFT                  
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NE KANSAS        
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND MAY CLIP THE NW CWA THIS MORNING AS WELL.              
BOTTOM LINE WILL BE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN                
ZONES...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.              
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND NW OF THE ILLINOIS                      
RIVER...TAPERING TO LIKELY ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...THEN DOWN TO               
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH                  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO               
BLOOMINGTON LINE. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS              
ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER DUE TO RECENT HEAVY                
RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING                 
POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL                
GET OFF TO A VERY WARM START TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING               
FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-70.                  
ONCE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN START                     
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES                 
WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE TRIMMED POPS                            
ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LITTLE               
OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON                
SUNDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LIFTING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. AS A                         
RESULT...CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND                 
SHOULD BE LARGELY CAPPED AT MID-LEVELS. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED                  
POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW. LOW-LEVEL RH PROFILES DRY OUT                  
CONSIDERABLY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.                  
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN MANY                    
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER                
70S. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPOTS TOP THE 80 DEGREE                              
MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY                  
FROM THE DESERT SW UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE                  
UPPER MIDWEST...TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS              
PARTS OF WISCONSIN. AS THIS ENERGY CONTINUES E/NE...IT WILL HELP                
PULL THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS                      
A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS THE REGION.                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                          
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD W/SW UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE                        
EXTENDED...WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EXHIBITING SLIGHT TIMING                    
DIFFERENCES WITH WAVES RIDING UP BACK SIDE OF MEAN EASTERN CONUS                
RIDGE. END RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT MAKE MANY                  
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BARNES                                                                   
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1050 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
WILL DO MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...OTHERWISE                
THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. VERY WARM TEMPS BUT NOT RECORD HIGHS               
TODAY. --21                                                                     
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECK SEEN ACROSS SRN IN AND CNTRL KY EARLY THIS               
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND              
EAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE              
REGION FROM THE GULF. WILL TREND FROM BKN TO SCT AT SDF AND LEX FROM            
12Z TO AT LEAST 18Z. ONLY EXPECTING FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT BWG.                
AS BKN DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL SCT CIRRUS             
OR MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE              
WSW BY LATE MORNING...WITH AS HIGH AS 13-15 KTS SEEN AT LEX.                    
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE BKN               
MID-LEVEL DECK AT LEX AFTER 21Z...AND POSSIBLY AT SDF AS WELL. STEEP            
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA.            
GIVEN EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE THOUGH...DO NOT THINK SHRA IS                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY INSERT VCSH INTO LEX TAF SITE (MAYBE SDF            
TOO). MAY ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH END MVFR VIS`S AT LEX OR SDF TOWARD               
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASSUMING ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS NEAR              
THE TAF SITES.                                                                  
AL                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY             
DIMINISHING OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. RUC13 INITIALIZED WELL                
WITH RAINFALL AND SFC TEMPS...SO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS FOR POPS                
AND HIGH TEMPS.                                                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH FROM              
ROUGHLY COLUMBUS OH TO DES MOINES IA. STRONG 500MB RIDGE IS LOCATED             
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.             
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS STILL GENERATING             
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR INDIANA COUNTIES AS IT MOVES NE AROUND THE RIDGE.            
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA...BUT WILL                
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR NERN CWA UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. THINK              
I WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND WILL HANDLE RESIDUAL                   
SHOWERS WITH NOWCASTS.                                                          
SHORT-RANGE MODELS MOVE THE 585DM LINE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. THUS WILL REMOVE POPS             
FROM THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND BECAUSE OF                
THIS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A TAD...TOWARD RUC13 VALUES OF LOW 80S               
SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH (SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF RAW GFS AND MET                 
GUIDANCE VALUES).                                                               
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD                        
TONIGHT...AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW TO SE...VERY CLOSE TO OUR NERN              
CWA BORDER. MOS POPS AT LEX RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT. REALLY THINK              
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO OUR NE...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE                
WILL INSERT A SLT CHC POP ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA...MAINLY NE OF A              
SALEM IN TO WINCHESTER KY LINE AFTER 21Z. WILL END SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.                                              
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW RUC TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH UPPER 50S               
NNE...TO MID-TO-LOW 50S DOWN SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                   
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                                  
ANOMALOUS RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE             
OVER 5820M ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH IS AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WHILE NOT                 
SETTING RECORD HIGHS...WILL APPROACH THEM. IF AMPLE SUN IS AVAILABLE            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.                          
THIS RIDGING WILL CORRESPOND TO TROUGHING OUT WEST. ON SUNDAY...ONE             
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN                
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE DESERT                 
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY TO MOVE EAST              
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
THE GFS 925MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES  17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON                       
GIVEN GOOD INSOLATION...MONDAY MAY HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF             
ALL. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES ALL THE WAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES...FEEL THAT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY. FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE TRIGGER                         
MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.                                                      
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY               
WILL SERVE TO KICK OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS OPEN TROUGH SHOULD            
WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN             
STATES...AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS OKLAHOMA BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE              
GFS TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL                    
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF            
THIS TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR POPS TUESDAY AND               
ADD CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                      
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST              
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY REDUCED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO               
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.                                                         
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                          
TROUGHING WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS STRONG             
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY              
AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY. WITH OUR FORECAST              
AREA STILL UNDER RIDGING...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF                    
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.                              
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
650 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECK SEEN ACROSS SRN IN AND CNTRL KY EARLY THIS               
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND              
EAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE              
REGION FROM THE GULF. WILL TREND FROM BKN TO SCT AT SDF AND LEX FROM            
12Z TO AT LEAST 18Z. ONLY EXPECTING FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT BWG.                
AS BKN DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL SCT CIRRUS             
OR MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE              
WSW BY LATE MORNING...WITH AS HIGH AS 13-15 KTS SEEN AT LEX.                    
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE BKN               
MID-LEVEL DECK AT LEX AFTER 21Z...AND POSSIBLY AT SDF AS WELL. STEEP            
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA.            
GIVEN EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE THOUGH...DO NOT THINK SHRA IS                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY INSERT VCSH INTO LEX TAF SITE (MAYBE SDF            
TOO). MAY ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH END MVFR VIS`S AT LEX OR SDF TOWARD               
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASSUMING ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS NEAR              
THE TAF SITES.                                                                  
AL                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY             
DIMINISHING OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. RUC13 INITIALIZED WELL                
WITH RAINFALL AND SFC TEMPS...SO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS FOR POPS                
AND HIGH TEMPS.                                                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH FROM              
ROUGHLY COLUMBUS OH TO DES MOINES IA. STRONG 500MB RIDGE IS LOCATED             
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.             
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS STILL GENERATING             
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR INDIANA COUNTIES AS IT MOVES NE AROUND THE RIDGE.            
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA...BUT WILL                
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR NERN CWA UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. THINK              
I WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND WILL HANDLE RESIDUAL                   
SHOWERS WITH NOWCASTS.                                                          
SHORT-RANGE MODELS MOVE THE 585DM LINE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. THUS WILL REMOVE POPS             
FROM THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND BECAUSE OF                
THIS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A TAD...TOWARD RUC13 VALUES OF LOW 80S               
SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH (SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF RAW GFS AND MET                 
GUIDANCE VALUES).                                                               
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD                        
TONIGHT...AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW TO SE...VERY CLOSE TO OUR NERN              
CWA BORDER. MOS POPS AT LEX RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT. REALLY THINK              
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO OUR NE...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE                
WILL INSERT A SLT CHC POP ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA...MAINLY NE OF A              
SALEM IN TO WINCHESTER KY LINE AFTER 21Z. WILL END SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.                                              
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW RUC TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH UPPER 50S               
NNE...TO MID-TO-LOW 50S DOWN SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                   
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                                  
ANOMALOUS RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE             
OVER 5820M ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH IS AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WHILE NOT                 
SETTING RECORD HIGHS...WILL APPROACH THEM. IF AMPLE SUN IS AVAILABLE            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.                          
THIS RIDGING WILL CORRESPOND TO TROUGHING OUT WEST. ON SUNDAY...ONE             
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN                
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE DESERT                 
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY TO MOVE EAST              
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
THE GFS 925MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES  17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON                       
GIVEN GOOD INSOLATION...MONDAY MAY HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF             
ALL. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES ALL THE WAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES...FEEL THAT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY. FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE TRIGGER                         
MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.                                                      
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY               
WILL SERVE TO KICK OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS OPEN TROUGH SHOULD            
WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN             
STATES...AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS OKLAHOMA BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE              
GFS TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL                    
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF            
THIS TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR POPS TUESDAY AND               
ADD CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                      
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST              
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY REDUCED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO               
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.                                                         
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                          
TROUGHING WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS STRONG             
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY              
AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY. WITH OUR FORECAST              
AREA STILL UNDER RIDGING...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF                    
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.                              
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1027 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BASED ON SAT PIX AND TRENDS...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DWN A DEGREE OR                 
TWO IN SOME AREAS. OTHRWISE...LEFT POPS ALONE FOR THIS AFTN FM                  
40 POP EXTRM NRN CNTIES TO 20 POP SRN 1/2 OF CWA.                               
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 702 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
JUST SENT QUICK UPDATE FOR LATEST CONDITIONS...DECREASED SKY CVR A              
LITTLE ACRS CNTRL/SCNTRL VA FOR MRNG HRS...AND TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS               
A BIT IN THE GRIDS. ZONE FCST HAS BEEN SENT.                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE             
REGION TODAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LOCATED                   
APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE RTE 460 CORRIDOR...WITH LGT NNE FLOW NORTH              
OF THIS AND S FLOW ACRS INLAND SRN VA AND NC ZONES. MSAS 3 HR                   
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE WEAKENING SHOWING THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS            
NOT REALLY PUSHING ANY FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE A                
VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY...EXPECTING                
LOWER 80S FROM SOUTH HILL TO BERTIE COUNTY NC...WITH A HIGH AROUND              
50 AT OCEAN CITY MD. NO SINGLE GUIDANCE FWC/MAV/MET WAS FOLLOWED AS             
NO MODEL SEEMS TO BE ACCURATELY RESOLVING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS                
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OVERALL HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOST                      
GUIDANCE ACRS NE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS (SUCH AS                 
ORF) WHERE ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND A                 
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR INLAND SRN VA ND NC ZONES.                            
AS FOR POPS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FROM PREV                         
FCST...NOT MUCH FORCING TODAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY (CURRENTLY               
SEEN ON WV SATL OUT IN MINNESOTA) WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ACRS             
PA LATER THIS AFTN. IN LOWER LVLS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW          
AND IS WEAKENING/RETREATING BACK NORTH A LITTLE. BEST CHANCES FOR               
PRECIP WILL BE ACRS NORTHERN AREAS MORE MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT                  
EVEN HERE CAPPED POPS AT 40%...ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE MENTION THIS                  
MRNG FOR ERN SHORE/NRN NECK. FARTHER SOUTH...KEPT FCST DRY THIS                 
MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING                   
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE                    
CANNOT RULE OUT A 20 POP FOR A SHWR EVEN IN SRN ZONES. BOTH GFS                 
AND NAM SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE AND NEG LI VALUES INTO              
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH VERY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES                 
(H5 TO H7) KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.                                
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENCE INTO ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS                 
SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA IN EARNEST               
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH 20 POPS SW TO 50% POPS NE               
TONIGHT...THEN DRY ON SUNDAY. MODEL TRNDS SHOW THE SFC HIGH TO BE               
A FEW MB WEAKER...SO THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS                
ON SUNDAY (HAVE GONE PTLY CLOUDY/MSTLY SUNNY FAR NE SECTIONS).                  
HIGHS WILL AGAIN SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT BETWN WARMER SW AND COOLER              
NE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SATURDAY.                                               
LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRINGLIKE                     
PATTERN OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ALONG           
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE NATION...BUT E OF THE APPALACHIANS WE WILL               
BE SUBJECT TO PERIODIC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS...THE NEXT                
ONE LOOKING TO BE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON                  
WITH WARMING TREND TUE/WED...THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN LATE IN                 
THE WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW     
DEGREES THU/FRI BUT STILL REMAINED ABOVE NEW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES.               
AVIATION...                                                                     
FNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED INTO SRN VA THE PAST CPL OF HRS. GENLY USING              
03Z RUC FOR ERY PT OF TAFS (THROUGH 15Z)...WHICH SHOWED FNT SETTLING            
S INTO PTS OF NE NC. WND DRCTNS TRICKY INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC AFT 15Z            
THROUGH 06Z/25...LEANED TWD A MR ESE SOLN...W/ SPDS AOB 10 KT. SBY              
SHOULD KP WNDS ENE...THEN SHIFT TO SE LT. LWR CIGS SHOULD RMN                   
SUFFICIENTLY N OF FNTL BNDRY TDA...W/ BEST SHOT AT PDS OF MVFR/IFR              
AT SBY. LMTD SHRA PTNTL TO SBY ATTM.                                            
MARINE...                                                                       
NOT EXACTLY THE STRNGST LLVL PUSH FM THE NE THE PAST SVRL HRS W/                
FNTL BNDRY SETTLING INTO SRN WTRS. WL HV ALL AREAS W/ DRCTN N OR NE             
TDA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT MR E OR SE B4 THE DAY IS OVR. CONDS RMN BLO            
SCA THROUGH 1ST PT OF TNGT. MR SGFNT LLVL SURGE FM THE N XPCTD LT               
TNGT/SUN MRNG W/ EXITING S/W OFF THE CST PUSHING FNTL BNDRY S OF                
WTRS. XPCTG PD OF LO END SCAS VRY LT TNGT UNTIL ERY SUN AFTN (IF NOT            
QUITE FOR SPDS...AT LEAST FOR SEAS ON OCN) B4 CONDS SUBSIDE LT                  
SUN/SUN NGT. WNDSHFT FM ENE TO SSW XPCTD MON INTO TUE...W/ YET                  
ANOTHER BKDR FNT SETTLING ACRS THE WTRS MIDWEEK.                                
TIDES...                                                                        
DEPARTURES RUNNING ABT 1/2 FOOT TO 1 FOOT BLO NRML THROUGH                      
TDA...THEN GUID RAISES DEPARTURES TO NR NRML TNGT/SUN.                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GINGRICH                                                                        
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
702 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
JUST SENT QUICK UPDATE FOR LATEST CONDITIONS...DECREASED SKY CVR A              
LITTLE ACRS CNTRL/SCNTRL VA FOR MRNG HRS...AND TWEAKED HRLY TEMPS               
A BIT IN THE GRIDS. ZONE FCST HAS BEEN SENT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 425 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE             
REGION TODAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LOCATED                   
APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE RTE 460 CORRIDOR...WITH LGT NNE FLOW NORTH              
OF THIS AND S FLOW ACRS INLAND SRN VA AND NC ZONES. MSAS 3 HR                   
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE WEAKENING SHOWING THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS            
NOT REALLY PUSHING ANY FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE A                
VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY...EXPECTING                
LOWER 80S FROM SOUTH HILL TO BERTIE COUNTY NC...WITH A HIGH AROUND              
50 AT OCEAN CITY MD. NO SINGLE GUIDANCE FWC/MAV/MET WAS FOLLOWED AS             
NO MODEL SEEMS TO BE ACCURATELY RESOLVING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS                
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OVERALL HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOST                      
GUIDANCE ACRS NE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS (SUCH AS                 
ORF) WHERE ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND A                 
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR INLAND SRN VA ND NC ZONES.                            
AS FOR POPS HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FROM PREV                         
FCST...NOT MUCH FORCING TODAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY (CURRENTLY               
SEEN ON WV SATL OUT IN MINNESOTA) WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ACRS             
PA LATER THIS AFTN. IN LOWER LVLS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW          
AND IS WEAKENING/RETREATING BACK NORTH A LITTLE. BEST CHANCES FOR               
PRECIP WILL BE ACRS NORTHERN AREAS MORE MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT                  
EVEN HERE CAPPED POPS AT 40%...ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE MENTION THIS                  
MRNG FOR ERN SHORE/NRN NECK. FARTHER SOUTH...KEPT FCST DRY THIS                 
MORNING. HOWEVER...BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING                   
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE                    
CANNOT RULE OUT A 20 POP FOR A SHWR EVEN IN SRN ZONES. BOTH GFS                 
AND NAM SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE AND NEG LI VALUES INTO              
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH VERY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES                 
(H5 TO H7) KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.                                
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENCE INTO ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS                 
SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA IN EARNEST               
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH 20 POPS SW TO 50% POPS NE               
TONIGHT...THEN DRY ON SUNDAY. MODEL TRNDS SHOW THE SFC HIGH TO BE               
A FEW MB WEAKER...SO THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS                
ON SUNDAY (HAVE GONE PTLY CLOUDY/MSTLY SUNNY FAR NE SECTIONS).                  
HIGHS WILL AGAIN SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT BETWN WARMER SW AND COOLER              
NE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SATURDAY.                                               
LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRINGLIKE                     
PATTERN OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ALONG           
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE NATION...BUT E OF THE APPALACHIANS WE WILL               
BE SUBJECT TO PERIODIC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS...THE NEXT                
ONE LOOKING TO BE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON                  
WITH WARMING TREND TUE/WED...THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN LATE IN                 
THE WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW     
DEGREES THU/FRI BUT STILL REMAINED ABOVE NEW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES.               
AVIATION...                                                                     
FNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED INTO SRN VA THE PAST CPL OF HRS. GENLY USING              
03Z RUC FOR ERY PT OF TAFS (THROUGH 15Z)...WHICH SHOWED FNT SETTLING            
S INTO PTS OF NE NC. WND DRCTNS TRICKY INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC AFT 15Z            
THROUGH 06Z/25...LEANED TWD A MR ESE SOLN...W/ SPDS AOB 10 KT. SBY              
SHOULD KP WNDS ENE...THEN SHIFT TO SE LT. LWR CIGS SHOULD RMN                   
SUFFICIENTLY N OF FNTL BNDRY TDA...W/ BEST SHOT AT PDS OF MVFR/IFR              
AT SBY. LMTD SHRA PTNTL TO SBY ATTM.                                            
MARINE...                                                                       
NOT EXACTLY THE STRNGST LLVL PUSH FM THE NE THE PAST SVRL HRS W/                
FNTL BNDRY SETTLING INTO SRN WTRS. WL HV ALL AREAS W/ DRCTN N OR NE             
TDA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT MR E OR SE B4 THE DAY IS OVR. CONDS RMN BLO            
SCA THROUGH 1ST PT OF TNGT. MR SGFNT LLVL SURGE FM THE N XPCTD LT               
TNGT/SUN MRNG W/ EXITING S/W OFF THE CST PUSHING FNTL BNDRY S OF                
WTRS. XPCTG PD OF LO END SCAS VRY LT TNGT UNTIL ERY SUN AFTN (IF NOT            
QUITE FOR SPDS...AT LEAST FOR SEAS ON OCN) B4 CONDS SUBSIDE LT                  
SUN/SUN NGT. WNDSHFT FM ENE TO SSW XPCTD MON INTO TUE...W/ YET                  
ANOTHER BKDR FNT SETTLING ACRS THE WTRS MIDWEEK.                                
TIDES...                                                                        
DEPARTURES RUNNING ABT 1/2 FOOT TO 1 FOOT BLO NRML THROUGH                      
TDA...THEN GUID RAISES DEPARTURES TO NR NRML TNGT/SUN.                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BROWN                                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
925 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG               
OVR SCNTRL UPR MI LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. 10Z TAMDAR                
FM KSAW INDICATED MOIST PROFILE TO NEAR 900MB WHILE YQT TAMDAR                  
SHOWED DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOISTURE EXTENDING TO ONLY 975MB. DRY              
AIR WILL SPILL IN AFTER SHORTWAVE OVR NORTH LAKE SUPERIOR PASSES                
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK PRES RISE OVR NW WI WILL ALSO EDGE EAST              
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG SO DID NOT ISSUE AN ADVY. DID             
UPDATE GRIDS TO EMPHASIZE FOG MORE. SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS ALONG               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DID PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT KCMX. TIMING THE BACK EDGE            
OF ENHANCED CLOUDS/RADAR ECHOES HAS THE SHOWERS OUT OF CWA AFTER                
16Z. BASED ON MIXING TO H85 ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS MAY NEED TO                 
RAISE TEMPS FM CURRENT MAX TEMPS IN GRIDS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE            
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE SHORE LINES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (545 AM EDT)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS              
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THIS FAST FLOW...SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST             
IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT/WRN ND. RADARS                
SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF ECHOES ACROSS ND/SRN MANITOBA ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS THAT HAVE                   
INDICATED -SHRA IN NRN ND/SE SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA TODAY. WELL              
TO THE W... SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES 2-3 DAYS               
AGO OVER THE W COAST AND BECAME A MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST            
S OF AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN IN THIS MORNING FOR THE NRN              
TIER OF THE FCST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE FROM NRN MN MOVES ACROSS THE             
FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WITH                  
MID-LVL RDGG IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR            
FROM W TO E IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE                  
AREA...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THERE. MIXING TO                
AROUND 850 MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S             
TO LOWER 60S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR.                                             
TONIGHT...SFC RDG AND ASSOC VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE                  
AREA(PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH) AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE             
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS                
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S PER MOS GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS            
AFTER 06Z HOWEVER AS WINDS BECOME SE ON BACKSIDE OF RDG. HIGHER                 
DWPNTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ADVECTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SE             
FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE FOR FAR WEST COULD BRING TEMPS UP             
SOME BEFORE SUNRISE.                                                            
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING A                    
SHRTWV...REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW U.S...INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z UKMET IS STILL SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE             
GFS/CANADIAN AND NAM. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF GFS/NAM AND               
CANADIAN FOR DETAILS. INITIAL SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP BY SUN MORNING            
OVER WI BDR COUNTIES WITH STRONG WAA AT NOSE OF 30-40 KT 850 MB JET             
AND PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH. 850 MB THETA-E              
RDG ALSO MOVES IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH DECREASING 850-500 MB                   
THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND UPR DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF. SCT              
STORMS FORMING IN THE SW FCST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL SPREAD NE                
ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP Q-VECT CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD            
OF THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT SUPPORTING              
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWFA. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG              
OFF MODEL SNDGS ALONG WITH DEEP LYR SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KT AND SRH            
APPROACHING 300 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. SPC               
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF THE WEST AND SCNTRL FCST AREA              
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN 7-8 KFT               
RANGE WOULD ARGUE FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE BIGGEST THREAT ESPECIALLY               
AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE BY LATE AFT AND EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY           
DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL BUT SINCE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY              
PROGRESSIVE WOULD NOT EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN                
INCH.                                                                           
MON...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO END OVER THE WEST EARLY AND E BY AFTERNOON            
AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS E AND RDGING/QVECTOR DIV BUILD IN BEHIND               
IT. EXPECTED SUNSHINE WITH WRLY FLOW AND 900 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 10C             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO LOWER 60S ESPECIALLY OVER WRN FCST               
AREA. LINGERING SFC TROF...POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND NW FLOW EXPECTED                 
BEHIND THE TROF COULD KEEP ERN COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 50S.                       
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS MID-LVL RIDGE STAYS               
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1137 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH                 
CAROLINA MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.               
HAD SOME REPORTS OF SPRINKLES IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY THIS                      
MORNING. BUT NAM AND LATEST RUC CONTINUE TO BREAK UP CLOUD THIS                 
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.                                                          
WEST WIND AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA                
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DRY LAYER OF AIR SEEN ON THE GSO 12Z                   
SOUNDING. IN THE EAST THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWING                 
DOWN TEMPERATURE RISE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BUT                
HAVE LOWERED MAXES IN ALL AREA BUT THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS                 
AND PIEDMONT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 729 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL                   
APPROACH LYH AND THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.               
THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY                 
TAF SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME              
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE FORECAST                  
AREA.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 401 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER ONTARIO AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.                    
STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN BETWEEN...EXTENDING E-W FROM NRN VA TO                  
CENTRAL IL.                                                                     
FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. OUR FCST AREA              
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUATION               
OF UNSEASONALLY WARM TEMPS. RECORD TMAX POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH               
BLF-ROA-DAN GOOD CANDIDATES FOR ESTABLISHING NEW BENCHMARKS...SEE               
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE ACTUAL RECORDS.                                   
PRECIP THREAT TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND                  
NORTH OF I-64...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                     
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...PUSHING DOWN              
THE EAST COAST...THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP IN THE MTNS OF FAR WRN               
VA/NC. RESULT WILL BE FOCUS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER FAR WRN                     
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GREATEST QPF THREAT ALONG AND              
WEST OF I-77. TSRA ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS SAME CORRIDOR AS                
FCST GUIDANCE PROGS CAPES 500-1000 J/KG...LI`S M5...AND STEEPENING              
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM GALAX NW THROUGH          
TAZEWELL AND INTO THE COAL FIELDS OF WV.                                        
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH               
DRY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY.                 
NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IF ANY WILL BE                    
PRESENT MONDAY...BUT REGARDLESS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A COOLER BY AT                
LEAST 10-15 DEGREES.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY IS                      
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS ITS CENTER DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA                 
COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND                
INTO MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN               
PREVIOUS SURGES...NOSES DOWN THRU THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL MID                 
ATLANTIC BEFORE DISSIPATING WED/THU.                                            
FRI/SAT WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE NE/MID ATLC THERMAL ROLLER                     
COASTER AS AGAIN WARMER AIR SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD                 
FRONT MOVING INTO THE APPLCHNS LATE FRI/SAT.                                    
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL                      
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE               
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CIGS WILL DROP TO                   
3000-6000 FT AGL. SHORTWAVE HELPING TO CREATE LIGHT PCPN IN ERN                 
KY/WV MAY SPARK SOME -RA AT LWB BEFORE DAWN. MAIN SHOWER THREAT                 
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64...EFFECTING MAINLY              
LWB AND TAF SITES FARTHER NORTH.                                                
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORDS TODAY                                                                   
ROA 78/1994                                                                     
LYH 87/1929                                                                     
DAN 82/1966                                                                     
BCB 78/1966                                                                     
BLF 74/1988                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AMS                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
310 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO MAIN                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FIRST AND MOST                   
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST IS THE STRONG/DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IN                 
CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN                  
STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND VERY WARM                  
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OTHER FEATURE OF                
NOTE IS THE DEEP TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES                 
BEGINNING TO EJECT ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURES HAS BEEN            
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                
OVER THAT AREA THUS FAR AND MORE APPEARS TO BE COMING WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM THE                  
NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY.                                                                         
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE BACK OFF THE                   
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF               
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY             
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE A FEW HIGH LEVEL               
CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND             
THESE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE               
INTO OUR SKIES. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOVE                  
AVERAGE WITH LOWER 80S SEEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.                   
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND                      
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. HIGH                  
PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING INTO THE DAY             
SUNDAY. THROUGH AT THIS TIME ONLY PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON            
CU ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE SHOULD BE EXPECTED. WITH THE STRONG RIDGING             
OVERHEAD (H5 HEIGHTS OF H588-590DM) AND 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12-14C              
WILL BE FORECASTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN UP INTO            
THE MIDDLE 80S (PERHAPS UPPER 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS) AFTER EARLY               
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST                    
MORNING...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY LOWER AND             
FOGGY SPOTS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS                 
POINT WOULD EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG AND NO MAJOR             
TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT. A CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT            
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INLAND HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A             
DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER             
80S AT THE BEACHES. FOR THOSE HEADING TO THE BEACHES SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A                 
MODERATE RIP CURRENTS RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATE RISK                
MEANS THAT WIND AND/OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF                 
STRONG AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS.                                          
RE-ENFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST                 
COAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM SHOWING A WEAK BACK                
DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE.              
BOTH MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY              
MONDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT REALLY SHOULD BE                  
UNEVENTFUL. ANY DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE SQUASHED BY STRONGER             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST                    
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM. TEMPERATURES                     
MONDAY...DESPITE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH AT                
LEAST THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SYNOPTIC               
PATTERN HAS GENERALLY NOT CHANGED. STRONG RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND              
850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND 12/13C. TEMPERATURES MAY PERHAPS END UP A              
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DO EXPECT A BIT                
MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING FURTHER              
EAST DURING THE DAY. STILL AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WORDING SHOULD BE              
FINE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.                                                
UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON                
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO SEE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE            
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN AND                  
NORTHERN EDGES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING             
RATHER PLEASANT WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS LOWER 80S. TEMPS SHOULD BE            
HELD IN CHECK BY EVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING              
EAST FROM ONGOING CONVECTIONS TO OUR WEST.                                      
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST              
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER                 
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGING FLATTENS              
OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE REALLY SHEARS OUT BY THE TIME IT             
REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION IS                
NOTED BY GUIDANCE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE CHANCE FOR ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LOOK              
SLIM AT BEST. PERHAPS A QUICK SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EARLY                          
WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT WOULD BE JUST ABOUT IT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING                
LOOKS TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN               
PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE                  
PROGGED BY THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME             
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF MAY ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO              
MANAGE AS THE BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SHOWN WELL TO OUR                 
NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY                   
CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITH BASES IN             
THE 6000-FT RANGE LASTING UNTIL AROUND 00Z. A SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY             
ADVANCING INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INCLUDING PFN. ON SUNDAY            
MORNING...EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FOG... MAINLY WITH VSBYS OF 2-3                 
MILES...EXCEPT AT VLD WHERE VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PREDICTED.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS                   
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY              
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY AT                
TIMES NEAR THE COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS WITH                     
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL NOSE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC             
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND             
SEAS BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DIFFICULT DECISION ON THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THIS EVENING...                 
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES HAVE               
DEVELOPED AND WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST FROM ACHIEVING CRITICAL            
DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT. MANY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE                   
WARNING AREA ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT AND IT APPEARS             
LIKELY THAT DURATIONS WILL BE ACHIEVED. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE WX WATCH             
ALONE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS IS ANOTHER TRICKY                      
SITUATION. CLOSE TO THE COAST SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL ONCE AGAIN              
KEEP RH FROM DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS.                  
CURRENT GRIDS INLAND HAVE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 HOURS OF RH NEAR OR JUST              
BELOW 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES ARE ACHIEVED BY GOING UNDER            
GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. WILL WAIT ONE MORE FORECAST              
PACKAGE AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE A DECISION ON THE                  
WARNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL            
THRESHOLD FOR ALL LOCATIONS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  86  55  83  56 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  58  84  60  81  60 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
DOTHAN       56  85  58  83  56 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
ALBANY       55  86  57  83  56 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     53  85  56  83  56 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   52  86  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE            
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...GULF...                 
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...                
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...                     
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...                 
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIREWX...WATSON                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...MROCZKA/BARRY                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
330 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS                    
APPROXIMATELY FROM MIE TO JUST SOUTH OF LAF.  THE RUC SHOWS THIS                
BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH THEN BACK NORTH AGAIN AFTER 00Z.               
THE RUC/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.                              
SOME TSRA HAD FORMED IN ILLINOIS AND WAS MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY              
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE             
MOVING EAST THROUGH THAT PORTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  AFTER              
00Z AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START MIGRATING NORTH...MOST OF THE             
ACTIVITY WILL GO WITH IT.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE POP IN FOR TONIGHT                
THEN TAPER IT OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE               
CWA AND DRY SOUTH.                                                              
H85/H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY                
SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM.  THEREFORE HAVE KEPT DRY COND IN             
ON SUNDAY.                                                                      
FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...HAVE MOSTLY GONE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE UPPER              
50S.  FOR SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR                
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND A GOOD SOUTH WIND WILL BUMP TEMPS UP INTO             
THE MID AND UPPER 70S MOST AREAS TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE RAIN. ON SUNDAY HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO INDIANA. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTANT WITH HAVING             
A LITTLE RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.              
WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE INSTABILITY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE                      
DECREASES. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEMS HAVE NOT                
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE SEVERAL SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO             
INDIANA ON TUESDAY THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF               
THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE REST OF THE WORK              
WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GOING A LITTLE HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE                
SO CONTINUED THAT TREND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
AN AREA OF TSRA HAD FORMED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF            
THE KLAF TAF SITE.  WILL MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN            
THE 18Z KLAF TAF THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
OTHERWISE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT IN             
RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES.  AN H85/H5             
RIDGE ALSO MOVES INTO THE STATE AND WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM             
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                                                          
WITH ALL TAF SITES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LIGHT            
WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO            
THE MORNING HOURS.  I DO NOT EXPECT SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE             
A BIG FACTOR AND WILL KEEP CIG/VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES.           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALLY                                                     
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
100 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS):...                                                        
FOR THIS AFTN...SCT TO BKN AC/CS AND SCT DAYTIME CU 4-5THSD FT.                 
LIGHT SWLY WINDS. FOR OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                          
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NERN PTNS OF FA. SO THERE REMAINS A SMALL                
CHANCE FOR NIGHTTIME TRW/RW ALONG AND NE OF THE FNTL BNDRY THAT WILL            
LIKELY BECOME STNRY IN OR NEAR LEX...ALSO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME             
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS NEAR FNTL BNDRY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT            
FOG FOR LEX BUT SDF AND BWG SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR WI ENOUGH             
MIXING TO AVOID ANY LATE NIGHT FOG. --21                                        
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
WILL DO MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...OTHERWISE                
THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. VERY WARM TEMPS BUT NOT RECORD HIGHS               
TODAY. --21                                                                     
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECK SEEN ACROSS SRN IN AND CNTRL KY EARLY THIS               
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND              
EAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE              
REGION FROM THE GULF. WILL TREND FROM BKN TO SCT AT SDF AND LEX FROM            
12Z TO AT LEAST 18Z. ONLY EXPECTING FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT BWG.                
AS BKN DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL SCT CIRRUS             
OR MID-LEVEL DECK ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE              
WSW BY LATE MORNING...WITH AS HIGH AS 13-15 KTS SEEN AT LEX.                    
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE BKN               
MID-LEVEL DECK AT LEX AFTER 21Z...AND POSSIBLY AT SDF AS WELL. STEEP            
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA.            
GIVEN EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE THOUGH...DO NOT THINK SHRA IS                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MAY INSERT VCSH INTO LEX TAF SITE (MAYBE SDF            
TOO). MAY ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH END MVFR VIS`S AT LEX OR SDF TOWARD               
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASSUMING ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS NEAR              
THE TAF SITES.                                                                  
AL                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY             
DIMINISHING OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. RUC13 INITIALIZED WELL                
WITH RAINFALL AND SFC TEMPS...SO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS FOR POPS                
AND HIGH TEMPS.                                                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH FROM              
ROUGHLY COLUMBUS OH TO DES MOINES IA. STRONG 500MB RIDGE IS LOCATED             
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.             
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IS STILL GENERATING             
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR INDIANA COUNTIES AS IT MOVES NE AROUND THE RIDGE.            
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA...BUT WILL                
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR NERN CWA UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. THINK              
I WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND WILL HANDLE RESIDUAL                   
SHOWERS WITH NOWCASTS.                                                          
SHORT-RANGE MODELS MOVE THE 585DM LINE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. THUS WILL REMOVE POPS             
FROM THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AND BECAUSE OF                
THIS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A TAD...TOWARD RUC13 VALUES OF LOW 80S               
SOUTH TO UPPER 70S NORTH (SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF RAW GFS AND MET                 
GUIDANCE VALUES).                                                               
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD                        
TONIGHT...AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW TO SE...VERY CLOSE TO OUR NERN              
CWA BORDER. MOS POPS AT LEX RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT. REALLY THINK              
ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO OUR NE...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY SO CLOSE                
WILL INSERT A SLT CHC POP ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA...MAINLY NE OF A              
SALEM IN TO WINCHESTER KY LINE AFTER 21Z. WILL END SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.                                              
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW RUC TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH UPPER 50S               
NNE...TO MID-TO-LOW 50S DOWN SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                   
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                                  
ANOMALOUS RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE             
OVER 5820M ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH IS AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WHILE NOT                 
SETTING RECORD HIGHS...WILL APPROACH THEM. IF AMPLE SUN IS AVAILABLE            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.                          
THIS RIDGING WILL CORRESPOND TO TROUGHING OUT WEST. ON SUNDAY...ONE             
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN                
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE DESERT                 
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY TO MOVE EAST              
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
THE GFS 925MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES  17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON                       
GIVEN GOOD INSOLATION...MONDAY MAY HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF             
ALL. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES ALL THE WAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES...FEEL THAT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY. FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH NO NOTICEABLE TRIGGER                         
MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.                                                      
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY               
WILL SERVE TO KICK OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS OPEN TROUGH SHOULD            
WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN             
STATES...AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS OKLAHOMA BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE              
GFS TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL                    
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF            
THIS TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR POPS TUESDAY AND               
ADD CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                      
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST              
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY REDUCED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO               
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.                                                         
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                          
TROUGHING WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS STRONG             
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. A COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY              
AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY. WITH OUR FORECAST              
AREA STILL UNDER RIDGING...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF                    
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.                              
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
255 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH PAST MORNING                
UPPER AIR DATA REVEALS A STRONG UPPER WAVE SPINNING SLOWLY NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY              
ARE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THIS WAVE WITH THE MOST NOTABLE STRETCHING             
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST             
COLORADO WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL             
NEBRASKA WHILE A DRYLINE IS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH                     
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH LAPS AND RUC                   
ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT WITH                
CAPES IN THE 200 TO 600 J/KG RANGE.                                             
ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT SHAPING UP FOR FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE                
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL COLORADO                
INTO SOUTHERN SD BY SUNRISE.  THIS WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH THE                      
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH THE TRAILING             
DRYLINE SURGING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THIS               
EVENING.  MAIN QUESTION IS THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION                
DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.  REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWS AN            
AREA OF CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO                
WITH THE MODELS ALL PUSHING THIS CONVECTION NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER            
SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEST OF A SAINT PAUL TO KEARNEY TO                    
PHILLIPSBURG LINE.  HOWEVER...A CHANCE WILL ALSO EXIST FURTHER EAST             
ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT EXPECTED             
TO ERODE THE CAP AND BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AREAS            
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING MODEST                
INSTABILITY IN THE 500 TO 700 J/KG RANGE...STRONG DEEP LAYER IN                 
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME                  
SEVERE.  LOWER CAPE WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH A FEW               
BRIEF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.                                                
THE UPPER WAVE IS THEN SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE             
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM.  THIS WILL BRING A DRY                
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH BREEZY                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF SUNDAY.  WILL AIM FOR AFTERNOON            
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.                                      
.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO             
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR                   
PRECIPITATION COMING MID-WEEK.                                                  
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSEASONABLY WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A                
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB                
INTO THE MID TEENS AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO             
THIS LEVEL AND POSSIBLY ABOVE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S            
TO NEAR 80F. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT                 
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF             
THE CWA PER THE PROGGED TRACK. THUS HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW              
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHERLY TREND TO SHORTWAVE               
TRACK. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN A TIGHTENING            
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.                
MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING PER               
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LLJ KICKS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS TUESDAY            
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND RESULTANT THETA-E ADVECTION               
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE PARENT                
UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A DRYLINE EASTWARD THROUGH THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM            
REMAIN IN QUESTION WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS PUSHING THE DRYLINE              
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT               
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER WITH THE                       
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS FROM                 
YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH STORMS THAT DO                   
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW             
FAR EAST DRYLINE PUSHES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE.                                 
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A            
MUCH STRONGER SECONDARY VORT LOBE THAT IT SWINGS THROUGH THE MEAN               
TROUGH...IN TURN PULLING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION VERSUS THE GFS.             
HAVE STAYED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AT THIS POINT AND A LITTLE COOLER              
THAN HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH FRIDAY           
AND SATURDAY ON BACKSIDE OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SLIDING                      
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE COOL             
DOWN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S              
TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
152 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS IS FORMING FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA INTO                
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND                  
OHIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS AXIS.                
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.                                                       
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT AS FRONT HAS                   
RETREATED BACK INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. BNDRY WILL                   
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH                
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE                 
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY AT BLF...BUT              
NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1137 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH                 
CAROLINA MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.               
HAD SOME REPORTS OF SPRINKLES IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY THIS                      
MORNING. BUT NAM AND LATEST RUC CONTINUE TO BREAK UP CLOUD THIS                 
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.                                                          
WEST WIND AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA                
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DRY LAYER OF AIR SEEN ON THE GSO 12Z                   
SOUNDING. IN THE EAST THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWING                 
DOWN TEMPERATURE RISE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BUT                
HAVE LOWERED MAXES IN ALL AREA BUT THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS                 
AND PIEDMONT.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 729 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL                   
APPROACH LYH AND THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.               
THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY                 
TAF SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME              
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE FORECAST                  
AREA.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 401 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER ONTARIO AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.                    
STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN BETWEEN...EXTENDING E-W FROM NRN VA TO                  
CENTRAL IL.                                                                     
FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. OUR FCST AREA              
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUATION               
OF UNSEASONALLY WARM TEMPS. RECORD TMAX POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH               
BLF-ROA-DAN GOOD CANDIDATES FOR ESTABLISHING NEW BENCHMARKS...SEE               
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE ACTUAL RECORDS.                                   
PRECIP THREAT TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND                  
NORTH OF I-64...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                     
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...PUSHING DOWN              
THE EAST COAST...THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP IN THE MTNS OF FAR WRN               
VA/NC. RESULT WILL BE FOCUS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER FAR WRN                     
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH GREATEST QPF THREAT ALONG AND              
WEST OF I-77. TSRA ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS SAME CORRIDOR AS                
FCST GUIDANCE PROGS CAPES 500-1000 J/KG...LI`S M5...AND STEEPENING              
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM GALAX NW THROUGH          
TAZEWELL AND INTO THE COAL FIELDS OF WV.                                        
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH               
DRY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY.                 
NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IF ANY WILL BE                    
PRESENT MONDAY...BUT REGARDLESS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A COOLER BY AT                
LEAST 10-15 DEGREES.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY IS                      
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS ITS CENTER DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA                 
COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND                
INTO MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN               
PREVIOUS SURGES...NOSES DOWN THRU THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL MID                 
ATLANTIC BEFORE DISSIPATING WED/THU.                                            
FRI/SAT WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE NE/MID ATLC THERMAL ROLLER                     
COASTER AS AGAIN WARMER AIR SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD                 
FRONT MOVING INTO THE APPLCHNS LATE FRI/SAT.                                    
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL                      
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE               
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CIGS WILL DROP TO                   
3000-6000 FT AGL. SHORTWAVE HELPING TO CREATE LIGHT PCPN IN ERN                 
KY/WV MAY SPARK SOME -RA AT LWB BEFORE DAWN. MAIN SHOWER THREAT                 
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64...EFFECTING MAINLY              
LWB AND TAF SITES FARTHER NORTH.                                                
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORDS TODAY                                                                   
ROA 78/1994                                                                     
LYH 87/1929                                                                     
DAN 82/1966                                                                     
BCB 78/1966                                                                     
BLF 74/1988                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...AMS                                                                  
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT                
48 HOURS.                                                                       
.SHORT TERM...HAVE PULLED BACK ON TIMING OF NIGHTTIME                           
PRECIPITATION AS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM                    
EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SLOWED BY CONVECTION                  
OVER IOWA. ALSO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS PER RUC PROGS                 
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION APPROACHING CWA FROM                        
NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER PROGS EVENTUALLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY                 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CWA AND MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN                  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA TO GENERATE                        
PRECIPITATION OVER CWA LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN GENERATING                 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AGAIN              
IF APPROACHING PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED FURTHER                                 
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.                  
HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN BODY OF FORECAST AS                   
BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF ARRIVING RAIN AND ENOUGH STIRRING OF                 
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION.                               
.LONG TERM...PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING A FAIRLY                  
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. RESIDUAL               
MORNING CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY EXIT CWA. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN                 
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER CWA TO BECOME MORE                   
UNSTABLE WITH TIME. NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH SPC MODERATE/SLIGHT                  
RISK FOR SEVERE FOR CWA WITH BEST TIMING EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO              
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH                      
MIDNIGHT. CRAS MODEL REFLECTS INITIAL TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH                 
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR MISSISSIPPI                 
RIVER AROUND 21Z SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL                
WORDING IN ZONES AS SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOCUS OVER                
CWA. AMONG PARAMETERS INCLUDES 0-1KM EHI OF 1-2, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR               
50-60 KNOTS, MLCAPE OF 1200-1700 J/KG, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES                   
APPROACHING 7C/KM.                                                              
.LONG LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MONDAY TO BE A QUIET                
WEATHER DAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER              
BEGINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BRIEF BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES SCOURING OUT LOWER LEVELS A               
BIT THIS AFTN. HOWEVER CONCERN IS HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL GET TNGT.              
WITH BOUNDARY PROGGD TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TNGT WILL INCREASE AT            
LEAST SOME CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FAVORABLE OF FOG                    
FORMATION. WHAT CONCERNS ME THOUGH IS THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED              
TO BE A BIT SREONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOC              
WITH APPCH WRM FNT....WHICH LESSENS CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF             
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING IN THE LOWEST                
LEVELS WHICH LEADS TO NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE                    
SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL NOT BUCK THE CONSENSUS OF THE MET/MAV/FWC MOS             
AND GO WITH BRINGING BACK THE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR AND AFTER 6Z.               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL/10                                                                       
</pre> wi