AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
210 PM MDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
WEAK VORT MAXES TRAVELING OVER NORTHWEST CO AND SW CO WILL CONTINUE             
PRODUCING LINES OF CONVECTION OVER THE SAN JUANS AND TAVAPUTS/ROAN              
PLATEAUS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                  
ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN AZ WILL TRAVEL TO THE NE AND HELP                
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND IN THE                
EARLY MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING IT WELL AND HAVE INCREASED              
POPS/CLOUDS/AND WX FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 09Z. TIME-HEIGHTS OF NAM DATA              
SHOW GOOD UVV AND A DIV/CONV COUPLET OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME             
PERIOD AS WELL.                                                                 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD               
MOVE ACROSS SE UT AND WRN CO FRI. NE UTAH WILL CATCH ANOTHER WEAK               
SHORTWAVE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO IDAHO. HAVE             
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTH AND MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS OVER NE UT AND             
EXTREME NW CO. MOST OF THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY-                 
SLOTTED SAT...THEN THE IDAHO CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE              
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO SRN WYOMING SAT AFTERNOON.                  
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT THE              
CURRENT POPS SOLUTION. TEMP PROGS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND HAVE ONLY           
TWEAKED A FEW NUMBERS HERE AND THERE. GENERAL MAX/MIN TEMP TREND IS             
DOWN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.                                                         
.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.              
THE MODELS PUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHEAST UT/NORTHWEST CO AT                
12Z...THE WRF WAS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME                   
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...WITH DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING            
IN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW               
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WILL             
STILL KEEP LOW DIURNAL POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. BY            
WED...THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS            
FEATURE FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST FOR AN INCREASE IN             
MOISTURE. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND THE LIFT FROM DISTURBANCE WILL                
RESULT IN INCREASED POPS ON WED. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.                   
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
CJC/EH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
910 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND                   
EXPECTED TRENDS. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY              
OF THE BEST MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS MOST OTHER PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE DRY                
AIR HAS MADE AT LEAST A LITTLE INROADS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES                  
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)                                   
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE MOISTURE PLUME                  
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MOST OF GEORGIA THIS              
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH             
RANGE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE CAUSED SLOW              
MOVING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE ATL...AHN AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL                
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE                  
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.           
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO              
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                     
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                           
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST BRINGING A DRIER                 
AIRMASS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN                   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND PARKS              
ITS SELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                  
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH A                  
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER                
GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL               
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LEADING EDGE OF WEDGE...TYPE FRONT SEEN ON SATELLITE FROM NEAR AHN TO           
NEAR VDI MOVING WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE                   
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE             
EITHER TEMPO SHRA OR VCSH IN THE ATL AND AHN TAFS. THE CONVECTION IS            
A BIT MORE VIGOROUS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL               
NEED TO INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MCN. AFTER SUNSET THE CONVECTION                  
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE               
TAFS DRY AFTER 5 OR 6Z. LATEST GFS AND RUC INDICATE THE FRONT ACROSS            
NORTHWEST GA INTO NORTHERN AL STALLS WHERE IT IS AT THEREFORE                   
KEEPING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES. RUC AND GFS                 
BRING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO HIGHER THAN 95 PERCENT BY 12Z FRI.             
FEEL LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND WILL ALSO GO              
WITH 1 TO 3 SM BR MOST AREAS. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT FRIDAY                  
MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS THE                
REGION. WILL GO WITH VCTS ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z FRI.                               
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         70  87  71  89 /  20  20  20  30                                
ATHENS          69  87  67  90 /  20  20  10  20                                
GAINESVILLE     69  87  68  88 /  20  20  10  20                                
ROME            69  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  30                                
COLUMBUS        73  92  72  90 /  30  30  20  30                                
MACON           72  91  71  92 /  40  30  20  30                                
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  89 /  20  20  20  30                                
CARTERSVILLE    67  89  67  89 /  20  20  10  30                                
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
615 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)                                  
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE MOISTURE PLUME                  
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MOST OF GEORGIA THIS              
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH             
RANGE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE CAUSED SLOW              
MOVING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE ATL-AHN AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE                  
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.           
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO              
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                     
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                          
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST BRINGING A DRIER                 
AIRMASS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN                   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND PARKS              
ITS SELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                  
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH A                  
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER                
GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A                 
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL               
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LEADING EDGE OF WEDGE-TYPE FRONT SEEN ON SATELLITE FROM NEAR AHN TO             
NEAR VDI MOVING WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE                   
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE             
EITHER TEMPO SHRA OR VCSH IN THE ATL AND AHN TAFS. THE CONVECTION IS            
A BIT MORE VIGOROUS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL               
NEED TO INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MCN. AFTER SUNSET THE CONVECTION                  
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE               
TAFS DRY AFTER 5 OR 6Z. LATEST GFS AND RUC INDICATE THE FRONT ACROSS            
NORTHWEST GA INTO NORTHERN AL STALLS WHERE IT IS AT THEREFORE                   
KEEPING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES. RUC AND GFS                 
BRING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO HIGHER THAN 95 PERCENT BY 12Z FRI.             
FEEL LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND WILL ALSO GO              
WITH 1 TO 3 SM BR MOST AREAS. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT FRIDAY                  
MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS THE                
REGION. WILL GO WITH VCTS ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z FRI.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         70  87  71  89 /  20  20  20  30                                
ATHENS          69  87  67  90 /  20  20  10  20                                
GAINESVILLE     69  86  68  88 /  20  20  10  20                                
ROME            69 91 70 93 / 20 10 10 30                                       
COLUMBUS        73 91 72 90 / 20 30 20 30                                       
MACON           72 91 71 92 / 30 30 20 30                                       
PEACHTREE CITY  68 87 70 89 / 20 20 20 30                                       
CARTERSVILLE    67 89 67 89 / 20 20 10 30                                       
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
16                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
801 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
MCS CONTS TO WKN ACRS SRN LWR MI AS IT RUNS EWD INTO MORE STABLE                
ENVIRONMENT AND EAST OF LLJ SUPPORT CURRENTLY. HWVR EVOLVING UPSCALE            
MCS OVR SRN MN/WRN WI QUITE ORGANIZED AND BEGINNING TO TURN SEWD.               
SHRT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS WILL STAY MAINLY                 
NORTH OF CWA OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LL MASS FLUX OVERTOP             
NWD RTNG WARM FRONT. CURRENT POP ORIENTATION PROBABLY SHADED TOO FAR            
SWD OVERNIGHT YET REALISTIC ACRS SRN MI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE VFR XPCD            
AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PD W/SFC WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS BY                
LATE FRI AM AND AFTN AS WARM SECTOR SPREADS NE INADV OF SFC LOW OVR             
SD THIS EVENING SHIFTING EWD INTO WI TOMORROW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                              
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM DECAYING MCS HAS THINNED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED                   
SURFACE TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR 80 AT 19Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND                  
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWING MCS EVOLVING UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN FROM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINALLY FIRED NEAR KMSP THIS                  
MORNING. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER HAS FORMED WITHIN              
REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SIGNIFICANT MASS FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG             
WARM FRONT...AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS OF A                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z NAM-WRF HAS                
TOTALLY FAILED TO INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE AND IS NOT A USABLE                   
SOLUTION. GFS/CANADIAN GEM NOT MUCH BETTER WITH NEITHER MODEL                   
DEPICTING SUCH AN ORGANIZED MCS. PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUGGEST              
IF THIS MCS DOES HOLD TOGETHER IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE INTO THE             
CWA OVERNIGHT. SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS                   
STARTING TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS. OVERALL                
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MCS TO CONTINUE            
TO MOVE/DEVELOP SE DOWN THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CWA             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THROWN OUT MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY USED                       
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS FOR FIRST PERIOD                
FORECAST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES THIS                      
EVENING...THEN EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. BEST CHANCE              
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES. IF A FORWARD                      
PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF                    
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THIS IS OF COURSE STRICTLY CONDITIONAL ON THE              
MCS SURVIVING THE TRIP INTO THE CWA.                                            
ON FRIDAY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITHIN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TO WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON PER               
NAM/CANADIAN GEM. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF                 
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT NORTH AND ALLOW CWA             
TO FULLY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. PENDING UPSTREAM MCS                   
EVOLUTION...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD IN THE MORNING SHOULD                   
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING              
HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED             
BY WELL DEFINED EML PLUME ALOFT. THAT SAID...WITH APPROACH OF THE               
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE                 
ENOUGH TO BREACH THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE            
CWA. CANADIAN GEM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY             
LATE AFTERNOON. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF WIND FIELD ALONG THE SE               
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE MAY ALSO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE            
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN            
TO COVER POTENTIAL.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                  
SHORT RANGE AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN             
THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM RANGE...AND THUS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE              
IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED.                                                   
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...S/WV ENERGY ACRS ERN MT/NE WY/WRN DAKOTAS IS            
FCST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND                 
SATURDAY.  THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY SWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE            
REGION.  WHAT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND            
EAST THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET.  BELIEVE FRONT WILL AT LEAST GET                   
THROUGH SOME OF THE CWFA...ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD            
IN THE NW.  OTHERWISE...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT                
WILL STOP...HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO            
SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE               
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA DUE TO S/WV            
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CNTRL                    
PLAINS.  BELIEVE THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE              
MAINTAINED 40 POPS AT THIS TIME.  PCPN CHC/S MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED            
INTO MONDAY.  BUT AGAIN...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST ADDED POPS               
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HOPE THAT MODELS WILL HONE IN ON A                 
DEFINITIVE SOLUTION.                                                            
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR MID TO                
LATE NEXT WEEK.  MID LVL TROFINESS IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACRS THE PAC              
NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND ALSO ACRS NE CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN              
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BE MID LVL RIDING FROM THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE EAST SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL            
RIDGE AXIS.  THUS...DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN             
BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                       
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM....HICKMAN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
317 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                              
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM DECAYING MCS HAS THINNED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED                   
SURFACE TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR 80 AT 19Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND                  
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWING MCS EVOLVING UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN FROM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINALLY FIRED NEAR KMSP THIS                  
MORNING. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER HAS FORMED WITHIN              
REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SIGNIFICANT MASS FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG             
WARM FRONT...AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS OF A                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z NAM-WRF HAS                
TOTALLY FAILED TO INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE AND IS NOT A USABLE                   
SOLUTION. GFS/CANADIAN GEM NOT MUCH BETTER WITH NEITHER MODEL                   
DEPICTING SUCH AN ORGANIZED MCS. PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUGGEST              
IF THIS MCS DOES HOLD TOGETHER IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE INTO THE             
CWA OVERNIGHT. SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS                   
STARTING TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS. OVERALL                
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MCS TO CONTINUE            
TO MOVE/DEVELOP SE DOWN THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CWA             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THROWN OUT MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY USED                       
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS FOR FIRST PERIOD                
FORECAST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES THIS                      
EVENING...THEN EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. BEST CHANCE              
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES. IF A FORWARD                      
PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF                    
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THIS IS OF COURSE STRICTLY CONDITIONAL ON THE              
MCS SURVIVING THE TRIP INTO THE CWA.                                            
ON FRIDAY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITHIN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TO WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON PER               
NAM/CANADIAN GEM. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF                 
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT NORTH AND ALLOW CWA             
TO FULLY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. PENDING UPSTREAM MCS                   
EVOLUTION...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD IN THE MORNING SHOULD                   
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING              
HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED             
BY WELL DEFINED EML PLUME ALOFT. THAT SAID...WITH APPROACH OF THE               
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE                 
ENOUGH TO BREACH THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE            
CWA. CANADIAN GEM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY             
LATE AFTERNOON. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF WIND FIELD ALONG THE SE               
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE MAY ALSO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE            
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN            
TO COVER POTENTIAL.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                  
SHORT RANGE AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN             
THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM RANGE...AND THUS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE              
IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED.                                                   
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...S/WV ENERGY ACRS ERN MT/NE WY/WRN DAKOTAS IS            
FCST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND                 
SATURDAY.  THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY SWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE            
REGION.  WHAT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND            
EAST THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET.  BELIEVE FRONT WILL AT LEAST GET                   
THROUGH SOME OF THE CWFA...ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD            
IN THE NW.  OTHERWISE...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT                
WILL STOP...HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO            
SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE               
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA DUE TO S/WV            
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CNTRL                    
PLAINS.  BELIEVE THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE              
MAINTAINED 40 POPS AT THIS TIME.  PCPN CHC/S MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED            
INTO MONDAY.  BUT AGAIN...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST ADDED POPS               
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HOPE THAT MODELS WILL HONE IN ON A                 
DEFINITIVE SOLUTION.                                                            
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR MID TO                
LATE NEXT WEEK.  MID LVL TROFINESS IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACRS THE PAC              
NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND ALSO ACRS NE CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN              
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BE MID LVL RIDING FROM THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE EAST SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL            
RIDGE AXIS.  THUS...DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN             
BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS                
DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE ALLOWED NOCTURNAL LLJ TO DISSIPATE. SKIES ARE              
NOW CLEARING NICELY OVER THE CWA WITH HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD QUICKLY                
THINNING AND ERODING. MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE IS                         
MOVEMENT/EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. 12Z NAM HAS TOTALLY                  
FAILED TO CAPTURE ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER SW WISCONSIN. SPC            
OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS STARTING TO RECOVER                  
DOWNSTREAM FROM WISCONSIN MCS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH              
INCREASING SUNSHINE. NAM/GFS PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUGGEST IF               
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL BE DIRECTED SE TOWARDS               
THE KSBN TERMINAL THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS QUALIFIER FOR             
THIS EVENING AT KSBN. DRY THEREAFTER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY              
MORNING AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS FORCES WARM FRONT             
TO LIFT NORTH WITH CWA BREAKING SOLIDLY INTO THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR.            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                 
LONG TERM....HICKMAN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
831 PM MDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ABOUT TO SEND OUT A MINOR UPDATE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY             
FOR WIND DIRECTION. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST               
AREA. SO ADJUSTED BASED ON REALITY AND RUC13. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY              
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. DID NOT TOUCH THE MINS DUE TO THE              
VARIABILITY IN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES...UPSLOPE...AND                  
WEAK MID AND UPPER LIFT AROUND.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SAT.                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY              
AND MANITOBA BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NOAM AND ANOTHER TROF FROM SASK               
INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE SD               
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE E THROUGH SRN WI INTO SRN LWR MI WITH             
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH FROM HUDSON BAY AND NRN ONTARIO INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 90 KT 250 MB JET              
STREAK AS MOVING THROUGH NE SD WHILE ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS LOCATED                 
UPSTREAM OVER OREGON. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RDG ANOTHER 95 KT H25 JET             
STREAK EXTENDED FROM E UPR MI INTO LWR MI. COMBINATION OF UPR LVL               
DIV AND ASSOCIATED FGEN WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET STREAK AND WAA              
FGEN VCNTY 850 MB FRONT SUPPORTED TSTM CLUSTERS FROM CNTRL MN INTO              
WRN WI.                                                                         
THE 12Z NAM WAS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM (TIL SAT) AS THE 12Z GFS            
DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT CONTINUITY PROBLEMS DUE TO CONVECTIVE                     
FEEDBACK.                                                                       
TONIGHT INTO FRI...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN SUPPORTED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC             
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPR LVL DIV WITH THE H25 JET WILL CONTINUE TO               
GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE NORTH. CONTINUED DRY ERLY LOW LVL FLOW MAY              
DELAY THE SPREAD OF THE PCPN TO THE NORTH A BIT COMPARED TO THE 12Z             
NAM. IN ADDITION...MCS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD INTO                   
WI...WILL ALSO LIKELY DISRUPT FLOW OF MOISTURE TOWARD UPR MI.                   
NEVERTHELESS...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STILL             
BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS INTO SRN UPR MI EARLY              
FRI AND INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF UPR MI BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY IF               
IMPACTS OF NOCTURNAL MCS TO THE SOUTH DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING             
THE DAY. WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM                      
FRONT...ONLY ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED...PER NAM FCST SNDGS              
AND MUCAPE FCST.                                                                
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS THE MORE FAVORABLE UPR LVL SUPPORT AND WAA              
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW LVL CONV               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF MOVING INTO UPR MI COMBINED WITH                   
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND DRYING ABV 700 MB COULD LEAD TO AREAS             
OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. EXPECT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE             
TROF AXIS ALONG WITH INCREASING QVECTOR DIV WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING             
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                     
SUN-THU...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT MID LVL CONFLUENT              
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH DRY                
WEATHER. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED BY MIDWEEK (PER HPC) WITH A SLOWER             
PROGRESSION AND MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SO...ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP             
WOULD DELAYED COMPARED TO THE 06Z/12Z GFS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS             
INTO THE 80S.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...14Z SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS                        
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST/WEST FROM SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN DEFORMATION AXIS               
NORTH OF WEAK MCS INDUCED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST                
FRINGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND                     
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOWING                 
RAPID DISSIPATION AS LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. FORECAST CONCERNS              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER AROUND LAKE BREEZE INDUCED                  
CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING 2 WARM LAYERS TO OVERCOME FOR SIGNIFICANT              
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ONE LAYER                      
STRETCHING FROM 800MB TO 700MB WITH ANOTHER UP AROUND 600MB. NEW 12Z            
NAM-WRF POINT MODEL SOUNDING FOR THE EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON               
INDICATING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ONLY                 
55J/KG SB CAPE CAPPED BY IMPRESSIVE WARM LAYER AROUND                           
775MB...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED. ACROSS                
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAP AT              
675MB WITH UPWARDS OF 240 J/KG SB CAPE. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...BEST            
MASS CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAR SOUTH IN VICINITY              
OF STATIONARY FRONT. ANY CHANCE OF OVERCOMING CAP IN OUR VICINITY               
WILL RELY ON LAKE BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE. WILL LEAVE ONGOING 20             
POPS FOR INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE EASTERN UPPER FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
ALTHOUGH FEELING IS CAP WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. ELSEWHERE...JUST              
NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE TO INTRODUCE POPS. EVEN WITH                     
CONVECTION REACHING CAP AT 675 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WARM                   
TEMPERATURES AT THIS ALTITUDE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH ICE GENERATION             
TO AID IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WILL THEREFORE MAKE JUST DO A               
MINOR UPDATE TO ACOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER AND TO              
CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                         
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD DOWN THE FORT IN NORTHERN ONTARIO. A            
STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MI. TO THE             
WEST THE FRONT WAS WOBBLING NORTHWARD A BIT INTO SOUTHERN WI. DEEP              
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH HALVES OF              
WI/LAKE MI/LOWER MI (INCLUDING A VERY IMPRESSIVE 3-INCH DIAMETER                
HAIL REPORT IN VAN BUREN CO AT 125AM). FOR OUR FORECAST                         
AREA...SHOWERS/STORMS WERE GRAZING BY THE SW ZONES SOUTH OF M-115.              
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TODAY...BUT A SURGE OF WARM               
MOIST AIR APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP               
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.                                                   
TODAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP IN THE REGION IS THE FRONT...AND THAT             
WILL STAY SOUTH OF I-96 TODAY. ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH WILL               
GRADUALLY THIS FIZZLE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MOST                  
LIKELY WEST OF LAKE MI WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM                 
SECTOR. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THRU ISSUANCE TO SEE IF ANY PRECIP            
IS NEEDED IN THE FAR SOUTH EARLY ON.                                            
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING EARLY MORNING FOG TRENDS. PATCHY MID/HIGH               
ARE KEEPING THINGS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...AND THERE/S LITTLE RHYME OR              
REASON TO FOGGY VS NON-FOGGY PLACES. NO HEADLINES FOR NOW.                      
THE NAM/WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SIGNALING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF              
LAKE BREEZE-FORCED...DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE            
QUITE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP AT 700MB....THOUGH THERE            
IS A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BELOW THE CAP (ML CAPES                   
100-150J/KG). WILL TOSS IN ISOLATED PM SHOWERS WHERE LOCAL FORCING              
WILL BE STRONGEST...AND THAT WOULD BE THE LAKE BREEZE COLLISION ZONE            
IN INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MI.                                         
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE CU                 
DEVELOPMENT...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.                                         
TONIGHT...AFTER A DIP SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY...THE FRONT WILL START TO            
RETURN NORTHWARD AGAIN...BUT STILL STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. SW 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY              
INTO THE LAKES REGION...AS A 1000MB SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO MN.  THIS            
WILL TRIGGER MCS DEVELOPMENT IN MN/WI...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY                   
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI. NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD                
AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
LOWER MI OVERNIGHT...AND THIS MAKES SENSE SYNOPTICALLY. INSTABILITY             
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED...WITH MUCAPES LESS THAN 750J/KG. THIS WILL                 
LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A                
FRANKFORT/HTL/STANDISH LINE...AND CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AS PETOSKEY/              
ATLANTA/HARRISVILLE.                                                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
LATER PERIODS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR              
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...THEN A                
COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO                 
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. MODELS ARE IN                 
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND.                                
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF WISCONSIN AND                  
CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ALSO BE             
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE                  
EAST...PROVIDING DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WITH ALL THIS                   
SAID...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO TO GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN                  
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER              
MICHIGAN...AS THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD                  
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS              
NOT GREAT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES. THE BETTER               
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SEEN SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MAY BE             
JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO                  
DEVELOP.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES              
JUST OVER AN INCH AND A HALF...AND FREEZING LEVELS AT 14.5 KFT. WITH            
STRONG STEERING FLOW...STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY.              
INSTEAD...TRAINING STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN               
OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT              
LOOK PROMISING AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS SINCE STORMS ARE               
NOT LIKELY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED (WIND THREAT) AND FREEZING LEVELS            
MAY BE TOO HIGH TO GET SEVERE HAIL. BIGGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WARM SECTOR STORMS             
MAY DEVELOP OUT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK INTO CENTRAL               
PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES 50-55                        
KNOTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY BE             
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS. SHOWERS AND                  
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO              
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING AS THE GOOD DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE            
NORTH AND EAST.                                                                 
SATURDAY...NEXT WEATHER MAKER...A COLD FRONT...PROGRESSES ACROSS                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH DECENT DRY AND COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE. IN                
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO OVERCOME              
WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND +12C. LIFTING A PARCEL IN ADVANCE OF THE                
FRONT (80/62) ONLY PRODUCES 400J/KG OF MLCAPE...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY            
150J/KG OF CIN. THUS...IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO               
GET CONVECTION TO FIRE AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE            
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR                       
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH...POSSIBLY ERODING THE              
CAP. MODEL QG FIELDS ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE.                         
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...00Z GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH              
SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL POSITION. RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING COOL             
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL KEEP                   
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DRY WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                     
BEYOND SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. HOWEVER...00Z GFS BRINGS A               
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITH                   
LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF                        
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                    
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
957 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
QUICK UPDATE TO CUT THE POPS OUT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL                  
DISTRICT BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST 40 KM RUC. THE RUC            
SHOWS AN H500 VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN NY AND NRN NJ.              
THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE SHORT WAVE HAS SPAWNED SOME             
OPEN CELLULAR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY.  WE TAPERED THE POPS             
OFF GRADUALLY FROM 04Z-10Z FROM LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES.             
THE MAIN STATIONARY FRONT OR RETURNING WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24              
HOURS REMAINS ALIGNED OVER THE PA/MD BORDER OVERNIGHT.  HOURLY T/TD             
FCST TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE LAST 4-5 HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.              
WASULA                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 359 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
IF THERE IS ANY CASE FOR PROMOTING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...THE                
FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS DEFINITELY ONE. IT               
SEEMS EACH SOURCE OF GUIDANCE KEEPS CHANGING ITS OWN TIMING...                  
TRACK AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...BASED ON DIFFERENT                    
DEPICTIONS OF CONNECTIVELY INDUCED UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. THAT IS JUST               
A LONG AND COMPLICATED WAY OF SAYING IT WAS AN INTERESTING TIME                 
TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF ALL THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...PAST AND                   
CURRENT. THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST                
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                             
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...AT LEAST LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM UPSTREAM                
FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH                
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...JUST                  
AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.                          
TEMPERATURES IN 50S...COOLER IN ADIRONDACKS.                                    
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME BROAD AGREEMENT              
FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE THAT A SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GREAT                
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING                      
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES INTO WESTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON AND                 
EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO SOME AGREEMENT THAT              
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION...MOISTURE ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC                  
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL ENHANCE FORCING. RAIN                
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ANY                 
CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK TO BE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AS                  
SOME DEGREE OF STABILITY NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WARM                 
ADVECTION INDUCED RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP SURFACE BOUNDARY TRACK                 
VERY MUCH NORTH.                                                                
TIMING OF OVERCAST SKY ON FRIDAY IN QUESTION...BUT SOME SUNSHINE                
SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS TO AROUND 70...LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH...AND               
COOLER IN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST                 
WINDS...QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME OCCASIONAL               
BREAK POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT STILL...                     
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STRUGGLE ABOVE THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR                     
70...BUT STAY TUNED...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF EXIT OF THE RAIN.                  
KEEPING SMALL CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                  
WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL                    
SYSTEM.                                                                         
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN CURRENTLY TIMED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY                        
NIGHT...BASED ON MREF GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY                
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THEN ONE FINAL SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH                    
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXITS TUESDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF                  
HEAVIEST RAIN SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND              
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLING AND DRYING AS MEAN NORTHERN                 
STREAM UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS JUST EAST OF THE AREA.                            
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS THAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY POTENTIALLY                
PUT SOME WRINKLES IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME RANGE...WILL WATCH.                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THRU THE PERIOD...BUT WITH VARYING              
HEIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A SCT-BKN CU DECK                  
AROUND 4-6 KFT WILL BE PREVALENT. SOME SCT -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE              
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. AFTER SUNSET THE CU              
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE...BUT A BKN DECK OF MID LVL STRATUS WILL                 
LIKELY BE AROUND. AFTER 06Z...MOS GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LOW LVL              
STRATUS FORMING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WITH A LOW             
LVL SE WIND COMPONENT BANKING OFF THE CATSKILLS THIS SCENARIO SEEMS             
REASONABLE. KEPT CIGS IN MVFR RANGE FOR NOW AT KPOU EARLY FRI                   
MORNING...THEN LIFTING A BIT TO VFR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. DID              
NOT GO FOR LOWER THAN 3500 FT CIGS AT KGFL/KALB FOR NOW...AS THE                
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NE             
AND LESS THAN 5 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.                                            
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
THERE STILL EXISTS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK              
OF MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE            
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGH              
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...SEVERAL                 
BATCHES OF RAIN MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND             
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY                 
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SINCE SOME OF THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH             
RAINFALL BEING DEPICTED MAY OR MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH MOISTURE               
INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP                 
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...SPORADIC BOUTS OF MODERATE TO                       
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR              
QPF ESTIMATIONS AT THIS TIME. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER             
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAINFALL.                          
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1020 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY - FRI NGT/...                                                
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OOZING SOUTH FROM CANADA HAS PUSHED INTO NEW             
ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTER ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC               
REGION.  IN BETWEEN...SFC LOW OVER SD WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY                  
REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS MIDWEST EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN OH/PA.                  
BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT HEADS TOWARD EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT              
SFC CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST IT IS SOMEWHERE VC OF NEPA.                       
SUBTLE S/WAVES ABOUND IN EASTERN U.S. TROF...GENERATING SHRAS OVER              
WNY AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN CWA.  WAVES ARE BEING PICKED UP ON LATEST            
RUC SOLN BUT ARE EXTREMELY HARD TO PICK UP IN WV IMAGERY.  LARGER               
WAVE OVER MI/OH WILL ROTATE THRU CPA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP                    
GENERATE SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT SERVING AS FOCUSING                  
MECHANISM.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS FA TODAY WITH MAXES                
RISING INTO M-U 70S AND MOISTURE INCREASING INTO MID-50S.  THIS                 
GIVES CAPE VALUES ACROSS NE PA OF 500-1000 J/KG.  5H FLOW OF                    
40-50KTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IF STORMS               
CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THUNDER TO DEVELOP             
BTWN 18-21Z TODAY WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BEING SOUTHERN HALF                     
FA...GENERALLY NY/PA BORDER AND SOUTH.  WILL STILL RETAIN SCTD POPS             
ELSEWHERE BUT LOWER TO LO CHC.  WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY/WIND             
AND REWORK AFTERNOON POPS.  UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL HIT            
THE ROAD BY 15Z.  -PB                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
POLLUTED HIGH MEANDERING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE              
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24H. A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER PA AND NEW ENGLAND            
WILL INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF WAVES DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM                    
ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WX VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.             
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT IS ON THE                     
INCREASE. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH            
MOST OF ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FA.             
THIS WILL FILL IN TODAY AND YIELD SCT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.              
AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING             
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.               
THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PULL EAST OVERNIGHT SO WE HAVE FORECAST                
SOME SHOWERS TO HANG UP FROM THE NY/PA BORDER SOUTHEASTWARD.                    
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WESTERN NY FRIDAY AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM TO BOTH              
PERIODS OVER WESTERN FA.  DJP                                                   
&&                                                                              
.EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                              
WARM FRONT MOVES UP OVER AREA BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC               
POPS WITH GREATEST THREAT REMAINING TO W AND N. SFC LOW MOVES FROM              
WRN GREAT LAKES EAST TO N OF MONTREAL BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SFC                
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WRN NY. CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS INCREASES              
TO LIKELY BY SUN EVENING. FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.               
SOME MOISTURE AROUND FOR AFTN STRATOCU BUT NO POPS. SHORT WAVES                 
PASSES TO THE N ON TUES WITH FEW CLDS AND ONLY SLGT CHC POPS. HI                
PRES BUILDS IN WED. -BMW                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (24/06Z TO 25/06Z)...                                                 
WILL STICK WITH VFR FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND                
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP THIS MORNING, PREVENTING FOG                 
FORMATION. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, WITH THE DECK BETWEEN            
6000 AND 10000 FEET. ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE              
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED                    
COVERAGE.  DJP                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1016 MB) WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE                  
OUTER BANKS LATE EVENING WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OVER NC. A WEAK              
LEE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY                
RETURN FLOW WAS NOTED OVER THE NW PIEDMONT                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
MADE ANOTHER CALL TO THE FAA TONIGHT CONCERNING A FEW AWOS SITES                
IN OUR REGION DUE TO POSSIBLE ERRORS IN TEMP OR IN DEW POINT TEMP.              
THE LOUISBURG AWOS DATA WAS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO ONGOING T/TD                   
ERRORS WHICH WERE BEING WORKED ON. OTHER AWOS SITES IN WHICH                    
TICKETS WERE OPENED THIS EVENING BY THE FAA DUE TO POSSIBLE DATA                
QUALITY ISSUES INCLUDED... EMPORIA... FRANKLIN... AND                           
HILLSVILLE/GALAX VA... AND MOUNT AIRY... WILKESBORO AND ERWIN-DUNN NC.          
1000 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 69-75 NORTH... AND MID 70S                     
SOUTH. THE WARMEST TEMP REPORTED WAS 79 AT MOUNT AIRY (DISCARDED                
AS OTHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT AREA INDICATED LOWER 70S THERE).                
ERWIN-DUNN ALSO REPORTED 79 (WHICH ALSO APPEARS 5 DEGREES WARMER                
THAN SURROUNDING SITES). THE DEW POINTS AT EMPORIA AND FRANKLIN VA              
(72-75) WERE 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE EVERYONE ELSE. THE DEW POINT AT                  
HILLSVILLE/GALAX VA WAS POSSIBLE 10+ DEGREES HIGHER THAN OTHER                  
SURROUNDING AREAS.                                                              
BOTTOM LINE... USE THE AWOS DATA FOR T/TD WITH STRONG SCRUTINY.                 
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS REMAINS NEARLY A STATIONARY                 
FEATURE. A WEAK H5 TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN                         
SEABOARD... WITH THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTENING                 
HAD OCCURRED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NC SINCE 12Z TODAY...                
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE              
DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.               
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICTED CLEAR SKIES NW AND               
SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SE THIS                     
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE CLEAR NW TO PARTLY CLOUDY SE                     
OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL                
PLAIN AND SANDHILLS THROUGH DAYBREAK... DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS                   
OVERHEAD AND RESULTANT LIGHT WIND. T/TD SPREAD WAS ALREADY LESS                 
THAN 5 DEGREES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY                  
THERE WITH LOWS 65-70.                                                          
FOR THE PIEDMONT... THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPS UP A                   
BIT... WITH THE T/TD SPREAD STILL 10-15 DEGREES. THUS... LOWS WILL              
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE TRIAD                    
REGION. LOWS 65-70 APPEAR REASONABLE THERE TOO.                                 
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 205 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH MODELS DEPICTION OF             
HIGH PRESSURE AT 850 MB DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC.  NAM SOUNDINGS                
SHOW A BIT MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES             
THAN GFS TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SPREADING STRATOCU             
OR ALTOCU IN THE TRIAD. BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.  ONCE AGAIN WE              
SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG NEAR DAYBREAK..THOUGH MODEL SURFACE                
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN FOR THIS                
PAST MORNING. LOWS 65-69.                                                       
FRI-SUN...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND PUMPS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A                  
GENERALLY RAINLESS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND             
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY LESS THAN              
1.5 THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW               
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR THAT THE GFS             
LATCHES ONTO AND DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST.  IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...              
ADDITIONAL MARITIME HUMIDITY AND DESTABILIZATION COULD LEAD TO                  
CONVECTIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY.  SUNDAY POPS             
WILL BE EDGED UPWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST TIER...BUT CONSISTENCY WILL BE            
SOUGHT IN THE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO INCLUDE ANY ACTUAL MENTION OF            
SHOWERS.  HIGHS EACH DAY 90-95.  LOWS 66-70.  -RFG                              
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY              
NIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A             
POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.               
PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES LIE IN TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE            
THE FRONT GETS CLOSE ON TUESDAY.  CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN            
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS LONGER THAN THE GFS...WHICH              
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  IF            
THE CANADIAN VERIFIES...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EVEN INTO TUESDAY               
ARE LIMITED WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING            
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.  THE TREND OF THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE              
MOIST...HOWEVER...00Z ENSEMBLE MOS POPS WERE ALMOST ALL AT OR BELOW             
CLIMATOLOGY.  WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST GFS               
AND THE DRIER...SLOWER CANADIAN AND UKMET MENTIONING IN THE GRIDDED             
FORECAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WEST ON MONDAY IN A WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH...DRY EAST.                                                              
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...GFS SUGGESTS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED                
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  CHANCES              
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  GFS PORTRAYS A WET SCENARIO...AND             
THIS COULD VERIFY GIVEN THE SLOW SPEED OF THE FRONT.  SOME CONCERN              
EXISTS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE FRONT DUE TO DIFFERENCES             
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK.  HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IN SOME DEFERENCE TO THE GFS WILL               
BEGIN TO DIMINISH POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS                 
SOUTH AND WEAKENS.  CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY                  
ESPECIALLY IF THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS SLOW AS SHOWN ON THE                 
LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE GFS.                                                      
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE              
LONG-TERM PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION            
BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR                
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THANKS TO AKQ AND RNK FOR COLLABORATION ON THIS             
PART OF THE FORECAST.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
RUC FORECASTS THE SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN CIRRUS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH              
SOUTH DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.                 
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLACK                 
GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE               
LESS THAN 10KT.  FORECAST CHALLENGES COME WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG                
OVERNIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A FEW CLOUDS FROM THE TRIAD                 
EASTWARD.                                                                       
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST A RELATIVELY DRY AREA OVER CENTRAL            
NORTH CAROLINA COMPARED TO DEW POINTS IN ADJACENT LOCATIONS...AND AT            
LEAST THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH DEW POINTS A FEW                  
DEGREES BELOW THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE.  HIGHER DEW POINTS ACTUALLY ARE             
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES...WHERE VISIBILITIES EARLY               
THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH              
CAROLINA.  DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA             
ARE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 60S...WITH EVEN SOME MID 50S READINGS IN                
ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND AND              
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LATE               
UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AND              
AT ALL TAF SITES FORECAST A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF            
HOURS OR SO AROUND SUNRISE.  SINCE THE DEW POINTS WERE LOWER THIS               
AFTERNOON...DID NOT FORECAST THE VISIBILITIES TO GET AS LOW AND TO              
DIMINISH AS RAPIDLY AS THEY DID EARLY THIS MORNING.                             
BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA                 
BORDER NORTH OF THE TRIAD...AND WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING FROM THE               
EAST IT SHOULD BE TOUGH FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWER TO APPROACH THE                 
TRIAD.  WILL WATCH IT THOUGH...BUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE THE             
MENTION OF JUST A FEW HIGH SC OR LOW AC NORTH GIVEN A SMALL AREA OF             
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS.             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
205 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH MODELS DEPICTION OF             
HIGH PRESSURE AT 850 MB DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC.  NAM SOUNDINGS                
SHOW A BIT MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES             
THAN GFS TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SPREADING STRATOCU             
OR ALTOCU IN THE TRIAD. BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.  ONCE AGAIN WE              
SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG NEAR DAYBREAK..THOUGH MODEL SURFACE                
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN FOR THIS                
PAST MORNING. LOWS 65-69.                                                       
FRI-SUN...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND PUMPS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A                  
GENERALLY RAINLESS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND             
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY LESS THAN              
1.5 THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW               
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR THAT THE GFS             
LATCHES ONTO AND DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST.  IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...              
ADDITIONAL MARITIME HUMIDITY AND DESTABILIZATION COULD LEAD TO                  
CONVECTIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY.  SUNDAY POPS             
WILL BE EDGED UPWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST TIER...BUT CONSISTENCY WILL BE            
SOUGHT IN THE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO INCLUDE ANY ACTUAL MENTION OF            
SHOWERS.  HIGHS EACH DAY 90-95.  LOWS 66-70.  -RFG                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY              
NIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A             
POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.               
PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES LIE IN TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE            
THE FRONT GETS CLOSE ON TUESDAY.  CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN            
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS LONGER THAN THE GFS...WHICH              
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  IF            
THE CANADIAN VERIFIES...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EVEN INTO TUESDAY               
ARE LIMITED WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING            
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.  THE TREND OF THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE              
MOIST...HOWEVER...00Z ENSEMBLE MOS POPS WERE ALMOST ALL AT OR BELOW             
CLIMATOLOGY.  WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST GFS               
AND THE DRIER...SLOWER CANADIAN AND UKMET MENTIONING IN THE GRIDDED             
FORECAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WEST ON MONDAY IN A WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH...DRY EAST.                                                              
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...GFS SUGGESTS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED                
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  CHANCES              
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  GFS PORTRAYS A WET SCENARIO...AND             
THIS COULD VERIFY GIVEN THE SLOW SPEED OF THE FRONT.  SOME CONCERN              
EXISTS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE FRONT DUE TO DIFFERENCES             
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK.  HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IN SOME DEFERENCE TO THE GFS WILL               
BEGIN TO DIMINISH POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS                 
SOUTH AND WEAKENS.  CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY                  
ESPECIALLY IF THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS SLOW AS SHOWN ON THE                 
LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE GFS.                                                      
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE              
LONG-TERM PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION            
BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP DAYTIME HIGHS FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR                
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THANKS TO AKQ AND RNK FOR COLLABORATION ON THIS             
PART OF THE FORECAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RUC FORECASTS THE SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN CIRRUS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH              
SOUTH DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.                 
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLACK                 
GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE               
LESS THAN 10KT.  FORECAST CHALLENGES COME WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG                
OVERNIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A FEW CLOUDS FROM THE TRIAD                 
EASTWARD.                                                                       
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST A RELATIVELY DRY AREA OVER CENTRAL            
NORTH CAROLINA COMPARED TO DEW POINTS IN ADJACENT LOCATIONS...AND AT            
LEAST THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH DEW POINTS A FEW                  
DEGREES BELOW THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE.  HIGHER DEW POINTS ACTUALLY ARE             
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES...WHERE VISIBILITIES EARLY               
THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH              
CAROLINA.  DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA             
ARE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 60S...WITH EVEN SOME MID 50S READINGS IN                
ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND AND              
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LATE               
UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AND              
AT ALL TAF SITES FORECAST A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF            
HOURS OR SO AROUND SUNRISE.  SINCE THE DEW POINTS WERE LOWER THIS               
AFTERNOON...DID NOT FORECAST THE VISIBILITIES TO GET AS LOW AND TO              
DIMINISH AS RAPIDLY AS THEY DID EARLY THIS MORNING.                             
BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA                 
BORDER NORTH OF THE TRIAD...AND WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING FROM THE               
EAST IT SHOULD BE TOUGH FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWER TO APPROACH THE                 
TRIAD.  WILL WATCH IT THOUGH...BUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE THE             
MENTION OF JUST A FEW HIGH SC OR LOW AC NORTH GIVEN A SMALL AREA OF             
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS.             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1108 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS HAS BEEN DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR               
MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE RAH CWA                    
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN THE                 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE                  
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED               
BY THE RUC OUTPUT AS WELL.  -RFG                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 857 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.                 
THICKNESS NUMBERS OFF 12Z RAOBS AND PROJECTED FOR THIS EVENING                  
SUGGEST MAX FULL SUN READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT SIMILAR NUMBERS            
YESTERDAY YIELDED UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND A COOLER START THIS                  
MORNING PLUS A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP OUR PEAK             
READINGS CONFINED TO THE 88-91 RANGE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE               
GSO MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 50 MB                
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING              
DURING THE DAY WITH NE FLOW AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE                     
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...A MINOR                   
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.  SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT STARTING OUT            
FROM THE NE AND VEERING TO ESE THIS AFTN.  -RFG                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 215 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AS HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. RESIDUAL                    
MOISTURE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG. SOUNDING                
DATA INDICATING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE MORNING TO                 
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
STILL POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. 500MB RIDGE BUILDING             
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING US DRY.             
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE              
AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...SO MAY RAISE ACCORDINGLY. WILL CONTINUE              
MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG.                                                  
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS            
ON TRACK.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN             
FROM THE NORTH. SOME DEBRIS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TENNESSEE                
VALLEY SPREADING INTO CWA...MAINLY ABOVE 12KFT AS MOST LOCATIONS                
REPORTING SKC. VSBYS 4-6 MI IN PATCHY FOG EXCEPT OCNL LIFR                      
CONDITIONS IN FOG RWI VCNTY. FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 08Z             
THROUGH 12 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WITH OCNL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN              
FOG FAY-RWI VICINITIES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER 13Z TO             
VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS RWI VCNTY UNTIL 14Z.                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
149 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
EMBEDDED SHORTHWAVE IN NWRLY FLO ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY               
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE TO DROP INTO NRN OH THIS AFTN. THIS WL BE THE FOCUS FOR             
SCTD CONVECTION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE                  
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF TSTMS IN CNTRL OH                 
TAF SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALONG WITH               
CAP SHUD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. WITH INCREASED             
SFC DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TNGT HAVE MENTION                 
OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT. FRONT TO SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH               
ALL TAF SITES DRY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1122 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH NWRLY                           
FLO ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE                       
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF LO                          
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO DROP INTO NRN OH TDA. THIS WL BE                           
THE FOCUS FOR SCTD CONVECTION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY                   
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. HAVE CONTD MENTION                       
OF CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/ERLY EVENING CONVECTION ACRS THE                      
NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALONG WITH                   
CAP SHUD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE ADJUSTED              
CLOUD COVER INCREASING CLDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS               
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 346 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
WARM FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED FROM SRN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN SE INTO NRN               
PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MRNG. SVRL TSTM CLUSTERS                
MOVING SE ALONG BNDRY...AIDED BY MID LVL S/WV WITH ELONGATED VORT               
LOBE ACRS LK MICHIGAN AND WEAK 850 LLJ. TSTMS HAVING A HARD TIME                
SUSTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS                 
WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S IN PLACE OVER NRN OHIO. SKIES WERE MSTLY                 
CLR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRNTL BNDRY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE                
L/M60S ATTM.                                                                    
HAVE SEEN SOME OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF                
I-71 WHERE DEWPTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MRNG. HAVE                   
INSERTED PTCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS THRU 13Z TO ACCOUNT.                          
OTHERWISE...FRNTL BNDRY WILL ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTM                 
ACTIVITY INTO AFTN HOURS. MAIN S/WV RIDING ALONG FRNTL BNDRY WILL               
DROP SE INTO NRN OHIO BY ERLY THIS AFTN. MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA                 
THIS MRNG INDCG FRNTL BNDRY TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS CURRENT                     
POSN...WITH MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN OHIO. 00Z NAM               
WAS ONLY MODEL RUN THAT BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES SOUTH INTO CNTRL                   
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA...POSSIBLY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THIS AFTN.              
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE ACRS SRN 2/3 FCST AREA TODAY AND                
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BNDRY LYR...FEEL PCPN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                
DVLPG MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN I-70. GFS...RUC AND SREF ALL FOCUS                
HEAVIEST PCPN THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN ACRS NRN 1/2 OF OHIO.                     
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAPAKONETA...                 
COLUMBUS...ZANESVILLE LINE BY LATE MRNG. THIS LINES UP WITH SFC/LO LVL          
CONV AXIS AS S/WV AND UPR JET PASS TO NORTH. HAVE THUS CONTINUED                
PCPN CHANCES ACRS NRN 1/3 FCST AREA...INCREASING POPS A BIT AND                 
EXTENDING SCHC POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO AREAS SE OF CMH                 
METRO. BEST CHANCES THOUGH SHOULD EXIST FROM MERCER CO SE INTO                  
LICKING CO. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MRNG INTO AFTN SHOULD               
REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.                                                        
PCPN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE AFTN AS S/WV PULLS OFF TO EAST OF                 
REGION. FRNTL BNDRY THEN WILL START TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT              
IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LO MOVING INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY...AND AN                
EXPANSION OF THE MID LVL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LVL VORT                 
POISED TO SWING THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN AFT MIDNIGHT...AND MAY SPARK              
AN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF FCST AREA. CHANCES FOR               
THIS REMAIN LO ENUF TO KEEP OUT OF ZONE FCST ATTM. FRI WILL SEE                 
RIDGE EXPAND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS WELL TO                 
NORTH OF REGION. A MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL DVLP BTWN THE                           
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO TO NW OF REGION AND SFC HI ACRS THE                       
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO THE                   
REGION FOR FRI AND EXTNDG INTO SAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG FAIRLY                
EXTENSIVE CAP WILL DVLP BY FRI AFTN...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY                  
ISOLD TSTMS FROM DVLPG FRI AND SAT.                                             
00Z MODELS (WITH EXCEPTION OF NAM) NOW A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE                
WITH COLD FRONT APPCHG FROM NW OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE GFS SEEMS A              
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN INDIANA AND                  
OHIO BY LATE SAT AFTN...BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF ARE INDCG RIDGE WILL               
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY               
OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO. BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES INTO                
NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AS A RESULT.                                       
TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS WARM END OF TEMP GUID TODAY...ESPECIALLY                
ACRS SRN FCST AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LEANED                     
TOWARDS WARMER MET GUID THIS EVNG...THEN FOLLOWED MAV GUID FOR                  
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 20C SHOULD                
ENSURE MANY LOCATIONS HITTING 90 DEG FRI AND SAT.                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES UP A BIT SUNDAY TO BLEND INTO HIGHER POPS                  
ACRS NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. PCPN LIKELY TO LINGER ACRS FCST              
AREA INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BNDRY GETS HUNG UP ACRS OH VLY.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 220 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF FRONT FOR THIS             
WEEKEND WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW EVEN SLOWER. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK            
TIMING OF PCPN ONSET TO AT LEAST SUNDAY AND AM AFRAID THIS MAY EVEN             
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WAA ALLOWING 8H TEMPS TO             
CLIMB UP CLOSE TO +20 DEGREES CELSIUS SO WILL NUDGE UP HIGHS FOR                
SATURDAY A TAD. OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW FOR PCPN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD            
DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...              
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE                        
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
120 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
XPCT STNRY FNT TO RMN OVR OR NR XTRM NRN OH NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS               
AGREE ON HOLDING THE FNT STNRY.  WK IMPULSES RIDING ESE ALG THE FNT             
WL CAUSE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRUT THE PD...ALTHO              
BETTER CHCS SHUD BE MAINLY THIS AFTN WITH DCR TNGT DUE TO DIURNAL               
COOLING.  THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHUD KP MOST              
OF THE NEAR TERM ACTIVITY NE OF TOL...FDY...MFD AND PROB CLE AND CAK            
ALSO. WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR DEBRIS CLDS MOVG SE ALG THE FRONTAL                
BAND MAY ACT TO LIMIT INSTABILITY TO KP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE                  
CONVECTION FROM BCMG STG TO SVR.  INCR IN LLVL MSTR WL PROB LEAD TO             
MVFR FOG TNGT AND CUD EVEN DROP TO IFR IF MORE BREAKS IN CLDS OCCUR             
THAN EXPECTED ATTM.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...                                           
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS                       
WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO MAIN FOCUS OF MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND            
SW LOWER MICHIGAN.  TSRA HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE MORE               
STABLE AIR ACROSS NRN OH.  THINGS DESTABLIZE SOME THIS EARLY THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND SOME LIFT FROM A 500 MB                
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NRN OHIO AND DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPERL LEVEL            
JET...BUT MSC ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON BRINING SOME            
RELIEF.                                                                         
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK                
WEEK PROVIDING CONTINUING CHC FOR TSRA.  FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NE OF              
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY FROM SRN LK MI INTO CENTRAL OH. STRONG TO                
SEVERE STORMS OVR FAR SW LOWER MI ARE BEING FED BY A MOIST/UNSTABLE             
LAYER AT 850MB AND ARE AT THE NOSE OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED                  
THETA-E RIDGE. ALL OF THE STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST OF KAZO HAVE              
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DUE TO THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE               
LOWER MI INTO NW OH/NE IN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH                   
TONIGHT AND THE RR QUAD OF THE UPR JET OVR THE NRN LAKES MOVES                  
EAST...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO SPREAD                          
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS WILL TAKE SOME              
TIME DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO...BUT EXPECT THE BEST                  
CHANCE FOR STORMS IN TOL/FDY AFT 10Z AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE            
FORECAST AREA BY 14Z. LOOKS LIKE ERI MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NE AND AWAY              
FROM THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO KEEP OUT THUNDER. WL NEED TO WATCH             
THE STORMS AS THE APPROACH TOL...AS THE RUC SHOWS AN ELEVATED                   
UNSTABLE LAYER AND 40-50KT DEEP SHEAR WHICH MAY SUGGEST SOME LARGE              
HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 12KFT.                              
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTN AS THE MCS ACTIVITY             
MOVES SE. WITH MANY PLACES SEEING RAINFALL TODAY AND CLEARING THIS              
EVENING...EXPECT SOME MVFR TYPE FOG TO DEVELOP THU EVENING.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU WED)...                                              
DRY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A                
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NGT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR            
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS                 
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF             
NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A RATHER COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS                     
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES.                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJB                                                                
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...ADAMS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1122 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH NWRLY                           
FLO ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE                       
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF LO                          
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO DROP INTO NRN OH TDA. THIS WL BE                           
THE FOCUS FOR SCTD CONVECTION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY                   
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. HAVE CONTD MENTION                       
OF CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/ERLY EVENING CONVECTION ACRS THE                      
NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALONG WITH                   
CAP SHUD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE ADJUSTED              
CLOUD COVER INCREASING CLDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS               
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 643 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TERMINALS WILL PRIMARILY BE AFFECTED              
BY HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM CONVECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE               
AREA. BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT THE               
TAF SITES. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE COLUMBUS AREA SO                  
LEFT CB QUALIFIER IN THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LESS THAN 10                   
KNOTS BUT VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. AFTER SUNSET SOME MIST/FOG                
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY AT KLUK AND KILN.                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 346 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
WARM FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED FROM SRN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN SE INTO NRN               
PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MRNG. SVRL TSTM CLUSTERS                
MOVING SE ALONG BNDRY...AIDED BY MID LVL S/WV WITH ELONGATED VORT               
LOBE ACRS LK MICHIGAN AND WEAK 850 LLJ. TSTMS HAVING A HARD TIME                
SUSTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS                 
WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S IN PLACE OVER NRN OHIO. SKIES WERE MSTLY                 
CLR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRNTL BNDRY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE                
L/M60S ATTM.                                                                    
HAVE SEEN SOME OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF                
I-71 WHERE DEWPTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MRNG. HAVE                   
INSERTED PTCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS THRU 13Z TO ACCOUNT.                          
OTHERWISE...FRNTL BNDRY WILL ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTM                 
ACTIVITY INTO AFTN HOURS. MAIN S/WV RIDING ALONG FRNTL BNDRY WILL               
DROP SE INTO NRN OHIO BY ERLY THIS AFTN. MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA                 
THIS MRNG INDCG FRNTL BNDRY TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS CURRENT                     
POSN...WITH MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN OHIO. 00Z NAM               
WAS ONLY MODEL RUN THAT BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES SOUTH INTO CNTRL                   
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA...POSSIBLY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THIS AFTN.              
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE ACRS SRN 2/3 FCST AREA TODAY AND                
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BNDRY LYR...FEEL PCPN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                
DVLPG MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN I-70. GFS...RUC AND SREF ALL FOCUS                
HEAVIEST PCPN THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN ACRS NRN 1/2 OF OHIO.                     
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAPAKONETA...                 
COLUMBUS...ZANESVILLE LINE BY LATE MRNG. THIS LINES UP WITH SFC/LO LVL          
CONV AXIS AS S/WV AND UPR JET PASS TO NORTH. HAVE THUS CONTINUED                
PCPN CHANCES ACRS NRN 1/3 FCST AREA...INCREASING POPS A BIT AND                 
EXTENDING SCHC POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO AREAS SE OF CMH                 
METRO. BEST CHANCES THOUGH SHOULD EXIST FROM MERCER CO SE INTO                  
LICKING CO. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MRNG INTO AFTN SHOULD               
REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.                                                        
PCPN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE AFTN AS S/WV PULLS OFF TO EAST OF                 
REGION. FRNTL BNDRY THEN WILL START TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT              
IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LO MOVING INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY...AND AN                
EXPANSION OF THE MID LVL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LVL VORT                 
POISED TO SWING THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN AFT MIDNIGHT...AND MAY SPARK              
AN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF FCST AREA. CHANCES FOR               
THIS REMAIN LO ENUF TO KEEP OUT OF ZONE FCST ATTM. FRI WILL SEE                 
RIDGE EXPAND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS WELL TO                 
NORTH OF REGION. A MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL DVLP BTWN THE                           
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO TO NW OF REGION AND SFC HI ACRS THE                       
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO THE                   
REGION FOR FRI AND EXTNDG INTO SAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG FAIRLY                
EXTENSIVE CAP WILL DVLP BY FRI AFTN...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY                  
ISOLD TSTMS FROM DVLPG FRI AND SAT.                                             
00Z MODELS (WITH EXCEPTION OF NAM) NOW A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE                
WITH COLD FRONT APPCHG FROM NW OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE GFS SEEMS A              
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN INDIANA AND                  
OHIO BY LATE SAT AFTN...BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF ARE INDCG RIDGE WILL               
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY               
OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO. BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES INTO                
NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AS A RESULT.                                       
TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS WARM END OF TEMP GUID TODAY...ESPECIALLY                
ACRS SRN FCST AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LEANED                     
TOWARDS WARMER MET GUID THIS EVNG...THEN FOLLOWED MAV GUID FOR                  
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 20C SHOULD                
ENSURE MANY LOCATIONS HITTING 90 DEG FRI AND SAT.                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES UP A BIT SUNDAY TO BLEND INTO HIGHER POPS                  
ACRS NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. PCPN LIKELY TO LINGER ACRS FCST              
AREA INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BNDRY GETS HUNG UP ACRS OH VLY.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 220 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF FRONT FOR THIS             
WEEKEND WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW EVEN SLOWER. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK            
TIMING OF PCPN ONSET TO AT LEAST SUNDAY AND AM AFRAID THIS MAY EVEN             
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WAA ALLOWING 8H TEMPS TO             
CLIMB UP CLOSE TO +20 DEGREES CELSIUS SO WILL NUDGE UP HIGHS FOR                
SATURDAY A TAD. OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW FOR PCPN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD            
DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...              
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE                        
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
730 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS NOW RIGHT ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.             
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PCPN...ONE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LVL              
JET OVER SE LOWER MI/NW OH...AND THE OTHER AREA OVER LKERI INTO                 
ERIE PA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION N OF THE FRONT. THE                  
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SE MI PCPN...BUT THEY DO NOT HAVE            
A CLUE ABOUT THE PCPN OVR LKERI. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE LOW                   
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLNS TODAY. WITH THE FRONT STAYING NEARBY              
ALL DAY...IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NOT AT LEAST A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALL DAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. IN                      
FACT...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN                  
ESPECIALLY WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WL                    
THEREFORE KEEP A CHC OF STORMS FOR INLAND SITES THIS AFTN. NONE OF              
THE UPSTREAM OBS HAVE CIGS TOO LOW ATTM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT               
CIGS WILL NOT BECOME TOO LOW TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY MVFR             
AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT MOVES N TONIGHT...SCT STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND             
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WL ADD PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCT FOR THIS.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...                                           
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS                       
WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO MAIN FOCUS OF MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND            
SW LOWER MICHIGAN.  TSRA HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING INTO THE MORE               
STABLE AIR ACROSS NRN OH.  THINGS DESTABLIZE SOME THIS EARLY THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND SOME LIFT FROM A 500 MB                
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NRN OHIO AND DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPERL LEVEL            
JET...BUT MSC ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON BRINING SOME            
RELIEF.                                                                         
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK                
WEEK PROVIDING CONTINUING CHC FOR TSRA.  FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NE OF              
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY FROM SRN LK MI INTO CENTRAL OH. STRONG TO                
SEVERE STORMS OVR FAR SW LOWER MI ARE BEING FED BY A MOIST/UNSTABLE             
LAYER AT 850MB AND ARE AT THE NOSE OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED                  
THETA-E RIDGE. ALL OF THE STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST OF KAZO HAVE              
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DUE TO THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE               
LOWER MI INTO NW OH/NE IN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH                   
TONIGHT AND THE RR QUAD OF THE UPR JET OVR THE NRN LAKES MOVES                  
EAST...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO SPREAD                          
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS WILL TAKE SOME              
TIME DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO...BUT EXPECT THE BEST                  
CHANCE FOR STORMS IN TOL/FDY AFT 10Z AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE            
FORECAST AREA BY 14Z. LOOKS LIKE ERI MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NE AND AWAY              
FROM THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO KEEP OUT THUNDER. WL NEED TO WATCH             
THE STORMS AS THE APPROACH TOL...AS THE RUC SHOWS AN ELEVATED                   
UNSTABLE LAYER AND 40-50KT DEEP SHEAR WHICH MAY SUGGEST SOME LARGE              
HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 12KFT.                              
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTN AS THE MCS ACTIVITY             
MOVES SE. WITH MANY PLACES SEEING RAINFALL TODAY AND CLEARING THIS              
EVENING...EXPECT SOME MVFR TYPE FOG TO DEVELOP THU EVENING.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU WED)...                                              
DRY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A                
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NGT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR            
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS                 
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF             
NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A RATHER COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS                     
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES.                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJB                                                                
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
643 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TERMINALS WILL PRIMARILY BE AFFECTED              
BY HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM CONVECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE               
AREA. BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT THE               
TAF SITES. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE COLUMBUS AREA SO                  
LEFT CB QUALIFIER IN THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LESS THAN 10                   
KNOTS BUT VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. AFTER SUNSET SOME MIST/FOG                
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY AT KLUK AND KILN.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 346 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
WARM FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED FROM SRN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN SE INTO NRN               
PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MRNG. SVRL TSTM CLUSTERS                
MOVING SE ALONG BNDRY...AIDED BY MID LVL S/WV WITH ELONGATED VORT               
LOBE ACRS LK MICHIGAN AND WEAK 850 LLJ. TSTMS HAVING A HARD TIME                
SUSTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS                 
WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S IN PLACE OVER NRN OHIO. SKIES WERE MSTLY                 
CLR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRNTL BNDRY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE                
L/M60S ATTM.                                                                    
HAVE SEEN SOME OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF                
I-71 WHERE DEWPTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MRNG. HAVE                   
INSERTED PTCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS THRU 13Z TO ACCOUNT.                          
OTHERWISE...FRNTL BNDRY WILL ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTM                 
ACTIVITY INTO AFTN HOURS. MAIN S/WV RIDING ALONG FRNTL BNDRY WILL               
DROP SE INTO NRN OHIO BY ERLY THIS AFTN. MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA                 
THIS MRNG INDCG FRNTL BNDRY TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS CURRENT                     
POSN...WITH MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN OHIO. 00Z NAM               
WAS ONLY MODEL RUN THAT BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES SOUTH INTO CNTRL                   
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA...POSSIBLY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THIS AFTN.              
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE ACRS SRN 2/3 FCST AREA TODAY AND                
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BNDRY LYR...FEEL PCPN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                
DVLPG MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN I-70. GFS...RUC AND SREF ALL FOCUS                
HEAVIEST PCPN THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN ACRS NRN 1/2 OF OHIO.                     
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAPAKONETA...                 
COLUMBUS...ZANESVILLE LINE BY LATE MRNG. THIS LINES UP WITH SFC/LO LVL          
CONV AXIS AS S/WV AND UPR JET PASS TO NORTH. HAVE THUS CONTINUED                
PCPN CHANCES ACRS NRN 1/3 FCST AREA...INCREASING POPS A BIT AND                 
EXTENDING SCHC POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO AREAS SE OF CMH                 
METRO. BEST CHANCES THOUGH SHOULD EXIST FROM MERCER CO SE INTO                  
LICKING CO. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MRNG INTO AFTN SHOULD               
REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.                                                        
PCPN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE AFTN AS S/WV PULLS OFF TO EAST OF                 
REGION. FRNTL BNDRY THEN WILL START TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT              
IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LO MOVING INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY...AND AN                
EXPANSION OF THE MID LVL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LVL VORT                 
POISED TO SWING THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN AFT MIDNIGHT...AND MAY SPARK              
AN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF FCST AREA. CHANCES FOR               
THIS REMAIN LO ENUF TO KEEP OUT OF ZONE FCST ATTM. FRI WILL SEE                 
RIDGE EXPAND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS WELL TO                 
NORTH OF REGION. A MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL DVLP BTWN THE                           
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO TO NW OF REGION AND SFC HI ACRS THE                       
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO THE                   
REGION FOR FRI AND EXTNDG INTO SAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG FAIRLY                
EXTENSIVE CAP WILL DVLP BY FRI AFTN...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY                  
ISOLD TSTMS FROM DVLPG FRI AND SAT.                                             
00Z MODELS (WITH EXCEPTION OF NAM) NOW A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE                
WITH COLD FRONT APPCHG FROM NW OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE GFS SEEMS A              
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN INDIANA AND                  
OHIO BY LATE SAT AFTN...BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF ARE INDCG RIDGE WILL               
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY               
OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO. BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES INTO                
NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AS A RESULT.                                       
TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS WARM END OF TEMP GUID TODAY...ESPECIALLY                
ACRS SRN FCST AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LEANED                     
TOWARDS WARMER MET GUID THIS EVNG...THEN FOLLOWED MAV GUID FOR                  
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 20C SHOULD                
ENSURE MANY LOCATIONS HITTING 90 DEG FRI AND SAT.                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BROUGHT PCPN CHANCES UP A BIT SUNDAY TO BLEND INTO HIGHER POPS                  
ACRS NRN FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. PCPN LIKELY TO LINGER ACRS FCST              
AREA INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BNDRY GETS HUNG UP ACRS OH VLY.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 220 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF FRONT FOR THIS             
WEEKEND WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW EVEN SLOWER. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK            
TIMING OF PCPN ONSET TO AT LEAST SUNDAY AND AM AFRAID THIS MAY EVEN             
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WAA ALLOWING 8H TEMPS TO             
CLIMB UP CLOSE TO +20 DEGREES CELSIUS SO WILL NUDGE UP HIGHS FOR                
SATURDAY A TAD. OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW FOR PCPN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD            
DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...              
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE                        
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WRMFNT LOCATED FM HON-BKX-MML AT 15Z WITH SFC LOW NR MHE. RUC LIFTS             
WRMFNT N OF A BKX/MML LINE THIS AFTN WHILE LATEST ANM PUSHES IT BACK            
S OF I90. THE NAM SOLUTION LOOKS UNREASONABLE AND FEEL FNT WL PBLY              
REMAIN FAIRLY STNRY THRU THE AFTN. S OF WRMFNT...AIRMASS IS CAPPED              
WITH +14 DEG AT H7 THRU 00Z. MAY EVEN BE CAPPED OFF ACRS NRN CWA                
THRU AFTN. IF ANYTHING DOES GET GOING...EXPECT IT TO BE N OF WRMFNT             
AND FEEL MOD RISK A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH. TOR POT WL EXIST THRU THIS               
EVE MAINLY NE OF A BKX-MWM LINE. TO S OF FNT...ANY THRW THAT DO FIRE            
UP WL HAVE TO BE ALONG CDFNT AND WL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER CAP WL              
BREAK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...CHC OF TRW WL LIKELY BE AFT 23Z/00Z. FOR            
NOW WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS N OF WRMFNT THRU THIS EVE...WITH ONLY A CHC            
TO THE S. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ACRS NRN CWA WHERE STRATUS            
HAS FORMED N OF WRMFNT...AND ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEG FAR WEST WHERE              
SFC TROF HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NW AND THICKER MID AND HIGH                   
CLOOUDS WL PERSIST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
955 PM MDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE                    
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT            
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY             
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN EVENING WATER VAPOR                   
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN ID...WITH               
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ID BACK             
INTO NORTHWEST UT. JET ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS              
WY WITH ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL UT. NAM/RUC MODELS HAVE BEEN             
FORECASTING AREA OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH ENTRANCE REGION TO               
JET THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE                  
WASATCH FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS            
YET TO DEVELOP...WITH BROAD CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING            
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST NV. THINK MOST                 
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FIRE A LITTLE                  
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL                      
UT...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM DELTA TO DUCHESNE. HAVE UPDATED                  
FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH                 
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS.                                                                          
TROUGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE              
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER                
INTO THE AREA...WITH 700MB TEMPS SUNDAY PROGGED NEAR 7C ON THE NAM.             
AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY TRANSLATES AWAY FROM THE REGION BROAD RIDGE            
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF              
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UT WILL              
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW RH            
MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONE 420             
AT TIMES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS               
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY               
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT KSLC SHOULD PERSIST               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE                   
TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE                   
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EARLY LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH                 
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEAMAN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
848 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
SCENARIO THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH DEWPOINT              
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THETA-E RIDGE SW PROVIDING                        
FOCUS/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN WITH THE AREA                  
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN FRONTS...AND LACK OF SUPPORT                         
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT MOST SHRA/TSRA TO FADE BY MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO              
THE LATEST RUC. POSSIBLE TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA DRIFT SE ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH LATER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES BUT LIKELY JUST MORE CLOUDS              
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE MORE VALLEY FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT                   
GIVEN SOME NORTHWARD INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL                
ALSO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THINGS REMAIN A BIT              
MORE MOIST FOR NOW.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 718 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
BIGGEST CONCERN THRU THE TAF PERIOD IS OVERNIGHT FOG. WITH WEAK                 
SFC RIDGE DRIFTING OVR THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHT/CALM WINDS                     
OVERNIGHT AND RIVER/VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HAVE PLAYED                   
THINGS QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT FOR THE NEW SET                
OF TAFS...WITH THE MOST DENSE FOG LIKELY TO BE FOUND AROUND KLWB                
WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY A                 
COMBO OF MVFR/IFR EXCEPT AROUND KROA WHERE VISBYS SHOULD STAY VFR.              
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLDS ACRS NORTHWEST NORTH                     
CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE                
REGIME...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST              
THINGS WILL SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...JUST A TAD MORE WIND               
TOMORROW AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BUT VFR CONDITIONS                    
EXPECTED.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEST-EAST               
DEW POINT GRADIENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ALONG AND               
NEAR THE KMTV-KDAN AREA. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED CELLS TO CONTINUE                
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THEN DISSIPATE. OTHER ISOLATED CELLS HAVE                 
FORMED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO BOTH              
HEATING AND WIND CONVERGENCE. ALSO EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
AROUND SUNSET. THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT CONVECTION IN                     
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PA/MD/NORTHERN               
VA MIGHT CLIP NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE               
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING FROM THIS AREA. BELIEVE              
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENCOUNTER                   
STRONG STABLE LAYER ONCE THE INVERSION FORMS...AND NOT MAKE IT                  
INTO THE REGION. HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG PARTS OF               
THE AREA.                                                                       
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGH                 
PRESSURE KEEPING A STRONG HOLD ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN. WILL FAVOR               
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE IN                  
MOST LOCATIONS.                                                                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH                
THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC DEPICTION AND GRIDS ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS PLACES THE GREATEST CHANCE OF                    
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING                  
CHANCES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES                  
SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NEAR THE DANVILLE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME...AND              
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BRING A SHOWER RIGHT AROUND 18Z...SO I INCLUDED               
A 1 HOUR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANY AFT/EVE                  
CONVECTION WILL STAY EITHER WELL TO THE NORTH...OR TO THE SOUTH...OF            
OUR 5 SITES. WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT                      
WINDS...SO I INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT BLF...LYH AND                     
DAN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT DAN SIMILAR TO THIS                     
MORNING. LWB SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN TO LIFR TOWARD MORNING WITH            
RIVER FOG. ALL FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.        
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
910 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
ISOLD RW/TRW CONT TO PASS JUST N OF THE FCST AREA...WHILE SCT-BKN CI            
CONT TO FILTER IN FM UPSTREAM MCS WHICH IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.  VLY            
FG WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HRS WITH NO PCPN FCST               
OVRNGT.  UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO REMOVE SCHC POPS ACR FAR N.  TEMPS            
ON TARGET...THEREFORE NO CHANGES NEEDED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 730 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
AVIATION /00Z TO 00Z/...                                                        
NEARLY A REPEAT OF LAST NGT WITH LIFR/IFR FG DEVELOPING OVRNGT AT               
CRW/EKN/PKB/HTS UNDER A MCLR SKY AND LGT WINDS.  DIFFERENCE BEING               
BLOW OFF CLDS FM UPSTREAM TRW COMPLEX DAMPENING ONSET OF FG UNTIL 6Z            
OR SO...A FEW HRS LTR THAN YDY AT EKN.                                          
FG LIFTS BY 12-13Z GIVING WAY TO CAVU THE BALANCE OF THE MRNG.  WITH            
MID LVL HIGH PRES NEARBY...LTL IN THE WAY OF CU XPCTD OUTSIDE TRI               
STATE AREA AND MTNS IN THE AFTN.                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 257 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
NEW CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR                     
ZANESVILLE OH. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                       
CWA...WHILE THE LATEST RUC AND THE LOCAL WRF MODEL IS NOW                       
SUGGESTING A NORTHERN CWA SKIMMING. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS IN THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED               
CLOSELY. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.                      
AS FOR FOG...I EXPECT A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO IT AS WITH LAST NIGHT.              
ELKINS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW A MILE /AS USUAL/. FOG SHOULD BE                
PATCHY...AND RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOME CLOUDS IN THE                
NORTH WILL AGAIN PREVENT FOG FROM GETTING DENSE.                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN SLIGHT TEMPERATURE              
TWEAKS. HUMIDITY DOES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW AS FLOW                   
TURNS TO SOUTHWEST.                                                             
ALTHOUGH NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH INSTABILITY AND FEATURES            
ON SATURDAY...DID ADD 20 POP FOR SE OHIO AND SOME OF THE NE                     
HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH                   
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT MOST               
CIN AND STRONGEST CAP WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF A HTS TO CRW LINE...BUT            
AGAIN MID LEVELS ARE DRY. A RENEGADE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH             
TO GET A STORM TO POP IN THE NORTH...WITH NO OTHER TRIGGERS                     
AVAILABLE. THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER              
TO THE EVENT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IN                  
REGARDS TO THE SHRTWV FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE EXPANDING POPS              
ANY FURTHER SOUTH. NAM HAS MANY WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING THROUGH                
INTO 12Z SUNDAY WHICH LOOK SUSPICIOUS.                                          
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES               
UNDER 6C/KM...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STORMS...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER               
AGAIN...AND THE NAM STILL LOOKING SUSPICIOUS IN TERMS OF ITS                    
VORTICITY PANEL. RESULT IN THE GRIDS WAS TO LEAVE CHC POPS MAINLY               
NORTH OF CRW AND JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER UNTOUCHED. FEW MORE                  
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT OCCURS ON              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1250 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                           
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...                                    
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP            
ON MONDAY. HARD TO PINPOINT ITS EXACT LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...AS                
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FLOATING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER               
THE PAST FEW RUNS. CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES...ANY STORMS THAT DO               
FIRE NORTH AND WEST...WILL CURVE TO THE RIGHT OR FURTHER                        
SOUTH...INTO THE GREATER H5 HEIGHTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SO                
WILL CARRY AT LEAST SLT CHC POPS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF              
THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE            
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS..THUS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON MORE            
OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AS OPPOSED TO THE WEST TO               
EAST SETUP FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE WARMER            
MIDLEVELS AND A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF ARE             
TO BE FOLLOWED...AND A SMALLER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE GFS. DID              
REDUCE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN BY HPC ON                              
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH 18C AT              
H85 FROM CRW SOUTH AND LESS CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN HPC GRIDS...DID INC            
MAXT GRIDS A FEW DEGREES THERE ON MONDAY.                                       
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.             
MREF PROB FOR 0.1 OF PRECIP GOES TO 60 LATE TUESDAY FOR EXTREME                 
SOUTH SO WILL TRY TO LEAVE POPS THERE TUES PM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY            
OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CUTTING BACK POPS FURTHER              
NORTH.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THEN THROUGH DAY 7...DID ELIMINATE HPC               
POPS FROM WED ONWARDS. MREF H850 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 11-15C NORTH TO               
SOUTH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE             
CWA...WITH A PLEASANT END TO AUGUST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...29                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
730 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /00Z TO 00Z/...                                                       
NEARLY A REPEAT OF LAST NGT WITH LIFR/IFR FG DEVELOPING OVRNGT AT               
CRW/EKN/PKB/HTS UNDER A MCLR SKY AND LGT WINDS.  DIFFERENCE BEING               
BLOW OFF CLDS FM UPSTREAM TRW COMPLEX DAMPENING ONSET OF FG UNTIL 6Z            
OR SO...A FEW HRS LTR THAN YDY AT EKN.                                          
FG LIFTS BY 12-13Z GIVING WAY TO CAVU THE BALANCE OF THE MRNG.  WITH            
MID LVL HIGH PRES NEARBY...LTL IN THE WAY OF CU XPCTD OUTSIDE TRI               
STATE AREA AND MTNS IN THE AFTN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 257 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
NEW CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR                     
ZANESVILLE OH. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                       
CWA...WHILE THE LATEST RUC AND THE LOCAL WRF MODEL IS NOW                       
SUGGESTING A NORTHERN CWA SKIMMING. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS IN THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED               
CLOSELY. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.                      
AS FOR FOG...I EXPECT A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO IT AS WITH LAST NIGHT.              
ELKINS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW A MILE /AS USUAL/. FOG SHOULD BE                
PATCHY...AND RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOME CLOUDS IN THE                
NORTH WILL AGAIN PREVENT FOG FROM GETTING DENSE.                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN SLIGHT TEMPERATURE              
TWEAKS. HUMIDITY DOES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW AS FLOW                   
TURNS TO SOUTHWEST.                                                             
ALTHOUGH NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH INSTABILITY AND FEATURES            
ON SATURDAY...DID ADD 20 POP FOR SE OHIO AND SOME OF THE NE                     
HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH                   
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT MOST               
CIN AND STRONGEST CAP WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF A HTS TO CRW LINE...BUT            
AGAIN MID LEVELS ARE DRY. A RENEGADE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH             
TO GET A STORM TO POP IN THE NORTH...WITH NO OTHER TRIGGERS                     
AVAILABLE. THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER              
TO THE EVENT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IN                  
REGARDS TO THE SHRTWV FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE EXPANDING POPS              
ANY FURTHER SOUTH. NAM HAS MANY WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING THROUGH                
INTO 12Z SUNDAY WHICH LOOK SUSPICIOUS.                                          
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES               
UNDER 6C/KM...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STORMS...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER               
AGAIN...AND THE NAM STILL LOOKING SUSPICIOUS IN TERMS OF ITS                    
VORTICITY PANEL. RESULT IN THE GRIDS WAS TO LEAVE CHC POPS MAINLY               
NORTH OF CRW AND JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER UNTOUCHED. FEW MORE                  
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT OCCURS ON              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KCKB AND KPKB                
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN IS FOG. I EXPECT A                
SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO IT TONIGHT AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS              
IN THE NORTH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG...SO KCKB AND KPKB WILL ONLY                
DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY BEGINNING AROUND 10Z. OTHER VALLEY TAF                  
SITES /KCRW AND KHTS/ WILL SEE A REDUCTION TO IFR...WHILE THE                   
USUAL FOG TRAP OF KEKN COULD REACH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1250 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                           
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...                                    
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP            
ON MONDAY. HARD TO PINPOINT ITS EXACT LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...AS                
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FLOATING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER               
THE PAST FEW RUNS. CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES...ANY STORMS THAT DO               
FIRE NORTH AND WEST...WILL CURVE TO THE RIGHT OR FURTHER                        
SOUTH...INTO THE GREATER H5 HEIGHTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SO                
WILL CARRY AT LEAST SLT CHC POPS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF              
THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE            
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS..THUS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON MORE            
OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AS OPPOSED TO THE WEST TO               
EAST SETUP FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE WARMER            
MIDLEVELS AND A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF ARE             
TO BE FOLLOWED...AND A SMALLER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE GFS. DID              
REDUCE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN BY HPC ON                              
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH 18C AT              
H85 FROM CRW SOUTH AND LESS CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN HPC GRIDS...DID INC            
MAXT GRIDS A FEW DEGREES THERE ON MONDAY.                                       
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.             
MREF PROB FOR 0.1 OF PRECIP GOES TO 60 LATE TUESDAY FOR EXTREME                 
SOUTH SO WILL TRY TO LEAVE POPS THERE TUES PM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY            
OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CUTTING BACK POPS FURTHER              
NORTH.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THEN THROUGH DAY 7...DID ELIMINATE HPC               
POPS FROM WED ONWARDS. MREF H850 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 11-15C NORTH TO               
SOUTH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE             
CWA...WITH A PLEASANT END TO AUGUST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...29                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
257 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
NEW CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR                     
ZANESVILLE OH. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                       
CWA...WHILE THE LATEST RUC AND THE LOCAL WRF MODEL IS NOW                       
SUGGESTING A NORTHERN CWA SKIMMING. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS IN THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED               
CLOSELY. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.                      
AS FOR FOG...I EXPECT A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO IT AS WITH LAST NIGHT.              
ELKINS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW A MILE /AS USUAL/. FOG SHOULD BE                
PATCHY...AND RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOME CLOUDS IN THE                
NORTH WILL AGAIN PREVENT FOG FROM GETTING DENSE.                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN SLIGHT TEMPERATURE              
TWEAKS. HUMIDITY DOES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW AS FLOW                   
TURNS TO SOUTHWEST.                                                             
ALTHOUGH NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH INSTABILITY AND FEATURES            
ON SATURDAY...DID ADD 20 POP FOR SE OHIO AND SOME OF THE NE                     
HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH                   
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT MOST               
CIN AND STRONGEST CAP WOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF A HTS TO CRW LINE...BUT            
AGAIN MID LEVELS ARE DRY. A RENEGADE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH             
TO GET A STORM TO POP IN THE NORTH...WITH NO OTHER TRIGGERS                     
AVAILABLE. THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER              
TO THE EVENT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IN                  
REGARDS TO THE SHRTWV FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE EXPANDING POPS              
ANY FURTHER SOUTH. NAM HAS MANY WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING THROUGH                
INTO 12Z SUNDAY WHICH LOOK SUSPICIOUS.                                          
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES               
UNDER 6C/KM...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STORMS...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER               
AGAIN...AND THE NAM STILL LOOKING SUSPICIOUS IN TERMS OF ITS                    
VORTICITY PANEL. RESULT IN THE GRIDS WAS TO LEAVE CHC POPS MAINLY               
NORTH OF CRW AND JUST SE OF THE OHIO RIVER UNTOUCHED. FEW MORE                  
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT OCCURS ON              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KCKB AND KPKB                
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN IS FOG. I EXPECT A                
SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO IT TONIGHT AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS              
IN THE NORTH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG...SO KCKB AND KPKB WILL ONLY                
DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY BEGINNING AROUND 10Z. OTHER VALLEY TAF                  
SITES /KCRW AND KHTS/ WILL SEE A REDUCTION TO IFR...WHILE THE                   
USUAL FOG TRAP OF KEKN COULD REACH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1250 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                           
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...                                    
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP            
ON MONDAY. HARD TO PINPOINT ITS EXACT LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...AS                
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FLOATING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER               
THE PAST FEW RUNS. CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES...ANY STORMS THAT DO               
FIRE NORTH AND WEST...WILL CURVE TO THE RIGHT OR FURTHER                        
SOUTH...INTO THE GREATER H5 HEIGHTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SO                
WILL CARRY AT LEAST SLT CHC POPS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF              
THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE            
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS..THUS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON MORE            
OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AS OPPOSED TO THE WEST TO               
EAST SETUP FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE WARMER            
MIDLEVELS AND A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF ARE             
TO BE FOLLOWED...AND A SMALLER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE GFS. DID              
REDUCE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN BY HPC ON                              
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH 18C AT              
H85 FROM CRW SOUTH AND LESS CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN HPC GRIDS...DID INC MAXT       
GRIDS A FEW DEGREES THERE ON MONDAY.                                            
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.             
MREF PROB FOR 0.1 OF PRECIP GOES TO 60 LATE TUESDAY FOR EXTREME                 
SOUTH SO WILL TRY TO LEAVE POPS THERE TUES PM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY            
OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CUTTING BACK POPS FURTHER              
NORTH.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THEN THROUGH DAY 7...DID ELIMINATE HPC               
POPS FROM WED ONWARDS. MREF H850 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 11-15C NORTH TO               
SOUTH SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE             
CWA...WITH A PLEASANT END TO AUGUST.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1016 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                   
I TRIMMED BACK POPS AND CONFINED THEM EVEN MORE TO THE NORTHERN                 
FRINGE OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE                
FROM NEW LEXINGTON TO PARKERSBURG TO CLARKSBURG. THE MONKEY WRENCH              
IS THAT WHILE ALL MODELS KEPT PRECIP NORTH OF CWA FOR LATER                     
TODAY...THEY ALSO ALL INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE UPSTREAM               
MCS NOW DIMINISHING IN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT              
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD VERY MUCH LIMIT THE ABILITY              
OF NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE INCOMING CLOUDS...I ALSO              
ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHERN CWA.                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MDP/KAM                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
925 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMSN TO KAEL AS OF 02Z.               
ONGOING CONVECTION STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST MN...WHERE SEVERE                   
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE HIT THE HARDEST. OF SPECIAL                         
NOTE...SURFACE DEW POINTS FEEDING THE CONVECTION HAVE ACTUALLY                  
DECREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE            
HAMPERING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL GROWTH IN CONVECTION...AS IT                 
SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                
LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD DURING                 
THE NIGHT...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...RUC 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT                  
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT...IMPINGING ON THE FRONT AND THUS                
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.                   
PLAN TO HOLD ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAL EXTENT AS IS...BASED ON               
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL QPF. OTHERWISE...FORECAST DATA BASE              
APPEARS TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT              
WILL BE REFRESHED BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFERENCE LATEST              
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH WAS UPDATED AT 0130Z.                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-          
     WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044.                                 
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ087-MNZ088.          
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
315 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LATEST 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                    
INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM/STATIONARY              
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW INTO INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC            
RADAR INDICATING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF              
SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN                 
NORTH DAKOTA.                                                                   
LATEST 12Z THURSDAY NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN                 
MOVING SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST INTO FORECAST AREA                   
TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS HOW FAR NORTH SURFACE WARM FRONT                
WILL MOVE...AS GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN                      
MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN THE NAM. OVERALL...                   
BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE                
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TONIGHT IS           
HIGH FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.                        
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN                   
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS                      
INDICATING GOOD STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND                      
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA TO BE ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. IN               
ADDITION...PARTS OF NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED OVER 2 TO              
3 INCHES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES                   
RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE ONE...THREE AND SIX HOUR                      
CATEGORIES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HAVE               
HOISTED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA                 
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE                
POSSIBLE...AS RUC INDICATES MIXED LAYER COMPUTED CAPE OF 1500 TO 3500           
J/KG AND 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. WILL           
CONTINUE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WORDING ACROSS MUCH            
OF FORECAST AREA.                                                               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY               
18Z FRIDAY. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE CONTINUE OVER               
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF              
PRECIPITATION AND TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.                 
12Z THURSDAY NAM INDICATING SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO FORECAST AREA           
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. 12Z THURSDAY GFS INDICATING SURFACE               
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 18Z SUNDAY.                   
FEEL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT SURFACE LOW TO MOVE              
THAT FAR NORTH...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION WITH                 
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SUNDAY. HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES THROUGH                   
PERIOD. BOTH THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD                    
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW OVER                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.            
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS                  
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF                
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR TO ADVECT INTO FORECAST FOR                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 12 TO 14 ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY...AND 00Z THURSDAY GFS INDICATING 1000-500MB THICKNESS                
VALUES OF 567 TO 570 OVER FORECAST AREA...THEN NEAR 573 1000-500MB              
THICKNESS VALUES AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE DRY AND                      
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD.                                         
 &&                                                                             
.HYDROLOGY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
OF AROUND 2 INCHES FOR NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS                 
EVENING AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS AND STRENGTH OF FORCING/MOISTURE                
CONVERGENCE WOULD NOT RULE OUT QPF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS              
PARTS OF NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. PLUS...PARTS OF NORTHERN FORECAST              
AREA COUNTIES 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES...             
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS EVENING AND           
TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST            
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     MORNING FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-                     
     WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044.                                                      
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     MORNING FOR MNZ079-MNZ087-MNZ088.                                          
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
255 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS              
RUNS OR IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY WITH A                
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY             
NEXT WEEK AFTER A DRY STRETCH THE PAST 4 TO 5 DAYS THIS WEEK.                   
NAM/WRF AND NGM DID NOT PICK UP ON CONVECTION AROUND KANSAS CITY                
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RUC AND GFS PICKING THIS UP BETTER. ONE                 
NOTED TREND OF MODELS IS LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN AREAS FROM PEORIA               
NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL TRY TO BLEND THIS FORECAST WITH            
SOME CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALONG WITH MESHING WITH                  
SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
07Z/2 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW IOWA                
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA AND WI/IL                
BORDER INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB WAS            
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING WEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.           
ANOTHER MCS UP NORTH OVER NE IA...SE MN AND INTO WI AND TRACKING ESE            
WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF COVERING AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD NE. TEMPS RANGED            
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SE IL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S               
OVER CENTRAL IL FROM MATTOON NW. DEWPOINTS WERE 60 TO 65F WITH SSE              
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHT TO CALM OVER SE IL CLOSER TO THE               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ALOFT 592 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE              
WAS OVER TX WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE WESTERN               
STATES AND LAKE WINNIPEG AND MN/DAKOTAS.                                        
HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP EASTERN IL DRY TODAY BUT ADDED 20/30 PERCENT              
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON.            
SHORT WAVE NEAR KANSAS CITY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MO AND TOWARD                   
WESTCENTRAL IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS HAVE BEEN QUICKER                
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. GETS MORE UNSTABLE ALONG AND             
WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON TOO WITH LIFTED INDICES MINUS 4 TO 6C               
AND CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AS DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE UPPER              
60S TO AROUND 70F. LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW IOWA MOVES EAST INTO                
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI SAT. WILL BE              
INCREASING CONVECTION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH SHORT              
WAVE MOVING ACROSS IL TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER BY 12Z/SAT. SPC HAS               
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE NW OF THE IL RIVER LATER THIS AFTERRNOON AND              
EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE                 
UPPER 80S WITH SW AREAS NEAR 90F AND MORE HUMID.                                
GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION SAT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH              
INTO CENTRAL IL AND AIR MASS UNSTABLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM IL RIVER            
SE WHERE LIFTED INDEX MINUS 4 TO 6C AND CAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SPC            
HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE JUST EAST OF EAST CENTRAL IL INTO                     
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS SHIFT QPF FURTHER SOUTH SAT NIGHT              
AND SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SE IL WITH LESS QPF                
OVER AREAS FROM PEORIA NORTH...SO LOWERED CONVECTION CHANCES FROM 60            
TO 30/40 PERCENT. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF             
I-72 WITH PRECIPITITABLE WATER VALUES GOING UP FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.              
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO            
RIVER MON TO KEEP CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY              
SE IL. AREAS NW OF THE IL MAY BE DRY AND WILL LOWER POPS THERE TO               
MESH UP WITH NEARBY OFFICES. CONVECTION CHANCES DIMINISH FROM NW TO             
SE DURING MON NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOP HEAVY QPF OVER IL FROM              
LATER SUNDAY INTO MON NIGHT...BUT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS            
AND NOT FOLLOWED.                                                               
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
EXTENDED MODEL ENSEMBLES SHIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TUE               
ALONG WITH CONVECTION CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN IL WHILE CENTRAL IL                 
APPEARS DRY. DGEX IS ODD MODEL KEEPING QPF OVER IL TUE AND WED. BUT             
MOST EXTENDED MODELS ARE KEEPING IT DRIER DURING MID AND LATE WEEK              
AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TOO. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FROM 80 TO 85.           
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
203 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM A MCS TO THE                        
NORTHWEST. JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE MCS AND APPROACHING                  
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD              
BEGIN MOVING IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THIS MCS IS                 
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT                 
TIL TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND WITH BEING SUCH A LOW                
CHANCE...DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. THE WIND ACROSS THE              
AREA IS CURRENTLY LIGHT TO CALM...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE LATER                  
THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AND THEN CALM               
DOWN SOME AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... (ISSUED 801 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                  
MCS CONTS TO WKN ACRS SRN LWR MI AS IT RUNS EWD INTO MORE STABLE                
ENVIRONMENT AND EAST OF LLJ SUPPORT CURRENTLY. HWVR EVOLVING                    
UPSCALE MCS OVR SRN MN/WRN WI QUITE ORGANIZED AND BEGINNING TO                  
TURN SEWD. SHRT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS WILL                  
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF CWA OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LL MASS              
FLUX OVERTOP NWD RTNG WARM FRONT. CURRENT POP ORIENTATION PROBABLY              
SHADED TOO FAR SWD OVERNIGHT YET REALISTIC ACRS SRN MI COUNTIES.                
OTHERWISE VFR XPCD AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PD W/SFC WIND                  
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS BY LATE FRI AM AND AFTN AS WARM SECTOR SPREADS                
NE INADV OF SFC LOW OVR SD THIS EVENING SHIFTING EWD INTO WI                    
TOMORROW.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 317 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                              
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM DECAYING MCS HAS THINNED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED                   
SURFACE TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR 80 AT 19Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND                  
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWING MCS EVOLVING UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN FROM CONVECTION THAT ORIGINALLY FIRED NEAR KMSP THIS                  
MORNING. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER HAS FORMED WITHIN              
REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SIGNIFICANT MASS FLUX CONVERGENCE                   
ALONG WARM FRONT...AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS OF               
A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z NAM-WRF HAS              
TOTALLY FAILED TO INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE AND IS NOT A USABLE                   
SOLUTION. GFS/CANADIAN GEM NOT MUCH BETTER WITH NEITHER MODEL                   
DEPICTING SUCH AN ORGANIZED MCS. PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUGGEST              
IF THIS MCS DOES HOLD TOGETHER IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE INTO                 
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS               
STARTING TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS. OVERALL                
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MCS TO                     
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SE DOWN THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE                 
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE THROWN OUT MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMPLY               
USED EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS FOR FIRST                  
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES THIS               
EVENING...THEN EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. BEST CHANCE              
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES. IF A FORWARD                      
PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF                    
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THIS IS OF COURSE STRICTLY CONDITIONAL ON THE              
MCS SURVIVING THE TRIP INTO THE CWA.                                            
ON FRIDAY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITHIN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TO WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON PER               
NAM/CANADIAN GEM. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF                 
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT NORTH AND ALLOW CWA             
TO FULLY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. PENDING UPSTREAM MCS                   
EVOLUTION...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD IN THE MORNING SHOULD                   
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING              
HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED             
BY WELL DEFINED EML PLUME ALOFT. THAT SAID...WITH APPROACH OF THE               
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE                 
ENOUGH TO BREACH THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE            
CWA. CANADIAN GEM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY             
LATE AFTERNOON. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF WIND FIELD ALONG THE SE               
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE MAY ALSO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE            
INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN            
TO COVER POTENTIAL.                                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                  
SHORT RANGE AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS                
IN THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM RANGE...AND THUS...THERE IS LOW                      
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED.                                        
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...S/WV ENERGY ACRS ERN MT/NE WY/WRN DAKOTAS IS            
FCST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND                 
SATURDAY.  THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY SWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE            
REGION.  WHAT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND            
EAST THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET.  BELIEVE FRONT WILL AT LEAST GET                   
THROUGH SOME OF THE CWFA...ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD            
IN THE NW.  OTHERWISE...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT                
WILL STOP...HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO            
SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE               
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA DUE TO S/WV            
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CNTRL                    
PLAINS.  BELIEVE THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE              
MAINTAINED 40 POPS AT THIS TIME.  PCPN CHC/S MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED            
INTO MONDAY.  BUT AGAIN...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST ADDED POPS               
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HOPE THAT MODELS WILL HONE IN ON A                 
DEFINITIVE SOLUTION.                                                            
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR MID TO                
LATE NEXT WEEK.  MID LVL TROFINESS IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACRS THE PAC              
NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND ALSO ACRS NE CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN              
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BE MID LVL RIDING FROM THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE EAST SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL            
RIDGE AXIS.  THUS...DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN             
BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...66                                                                     
SHORT TERM...44                                                                 
LONG TERM....30                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APPEARS THE AREA IS IN STORE FOR SVRL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINS. TO            
A POINT, THIS WILL BE GOOD. BUT HPC HAS SEVERAL INCHES OVER SVRL                
DAYS AND THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS FCST CYCLE.                     
CONVECTION THIS MRNG IS SCATTERED AND MOVING ALONG NICELY. WAVE                 
INDICATED ON RUCII THIS MRNG SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                  
BEFORE NOON PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER WITH FNT OVER              
NE THIS MRNG CONTS TO MOVE SOUTH TWD THE CWA THIS MRNG. THUS, A                 
BNDRY WILL BE ADDED TO THE MIX OF POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS FOR LATER            
TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES               
LATER TODAY AND HOLD THERE OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH APPCHG WAVE            
FM THE WEST PER NAM/RUCII COULD MEAN REPEAT CELLS OVER PARTS OF THE             
AREA BY TNGT. THIS ALL SHOULD PRIME THE GROUND FOR SECOND WAVE OF               
PCPN LATER ON SUNDAY. SVRL HEAVY PCPN EPISODES COULD VERY MUCH RAISE            
THE FLOODING THREAT. A BIT EARLY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS YET...BUT BEARS              
WATCHING.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES TRICKY TOO RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MORE                  
CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 80                
BOTH DAYS...LIKELY LESS IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST FOR A GOOD PTN OF            
THE DAY.                                                                        
ENTIRE UPPER TROF DOES NOT MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATER             
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER BETTER LIFT IS WELL AHEAD OF TROF SO FOR NOW WILL            
HOLD ONTO CURRENT FCST THAT HAS PCPN ENDING SRN CWA ON MONDAY. DRYER            
AND WARMER INTO MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY INTO SAT.                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RDG INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES              
AND WRN ONTARIO BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NOAM AND ANOTHER TROF MOVING IN            
FROM SASK INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED                
OVER SW MN WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE E THROUGH CNTRL WI INTO SRN            
LWR MI WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO HUDSON             
BAY. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH SRN MN AND CENTRAL WI ALONG               
WITH AN ASSOC 80 KT 250 MB JET STREAK IS HELPING SUSTAIN CONVECTION             
OVER SE MN AND WCNTRL WI ATTM. DECENT 700-600 MB FGEN FORCING AS                
NOTED ON RUC XSECTIONS HAS INITIATED A BAND OF CONVECTION OVER FAR              
NCNTRL WI WHICH IS MOVING INTO UPR MI BORDER COUNTIES EARLY THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
TODAY...06Z RUC AND 00Z NAM INDICATE FGEN SHRA BAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY            
ENE TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 18Z AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR            
OVER ERN COUNTIES. EVEN SO...MODELS STILL SHOW MODEST 850-500 MB                
Q-VECT CONV AND 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING NE ACROSS THE FCST             
AREA THROUGH 18Z. IN SHORT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR COUNTIES              
ALONG WI BDR AND LAKE MI...AND THEN TAPER TO LOW CHC 30 POPS FOR FAR            
ERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER ERLY FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BEAT             
BACK ADVANCE OF SHRA SOMEWHAT. WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH            
OF THE WARM FRONT...ONLY ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE             
WI BDR AND LAKE MI COUNTIES...PER LIMITED INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON               
GFS AND NAM MLCAPE FCST.                                                        
TONIGHT INTO SAT...AS MORE FAVORABLE UPR LVL SUPPORT AND WAA SHIFTS             
TO THE EAST THE PCPN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.                        
HOWEVER...LOW LVL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF MOVING INTO UPR             
MI COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND DRYING ABV 700 MB                
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. EXPECT DRY              
ADVECTION AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS                 
ALONG WITH INCREASING QVECTOR DIV TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND DURING            
SAT AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.                                                    
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A MID               
LVL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES AND                     
BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP WX DRY FOR THE REST OF            
THE WEEKEND. SFC RDG AXIS MOVING OVER WESTERN INTERIOR SHOULD ALLOW             
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS READINGS DIP INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE                     
TRADITIONAL COLD DRAINAGE SPOTS. EXPECT FCST 8H TEMPS OF 12C NORTH              
TO 13-14C SOUTH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPR             
70S ON SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
449 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ALL POINTING TO A RATHER WET AND ACTIVE                  
WEATHER PATTERN AS A SLOW MOVING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT SAGS                  
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS SHOULD BRING US MUCH              
NEEDED RAINFALL...HOWEVER BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE SOME AREAS                
COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD. PINNING DOWN                
THE DETAILS OF THIS FCST IS THE MOST DIFFICULT TASK AS BOTH THE                 
GFS AND NAM-WRF APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                 
AT VARYING POINTS IN THE FCST CYCLE.                                            
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER PORTIONS OF                
NW MO AND ERN KS SINCE 06Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 35+ KT SWLY LLJ.               
THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND                  
APPEARS TO BE BEST FOCUSED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THE                    
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH AND DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY.               
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DATA IS INDICATING DRIER AND RELATIVELY                 
STABLE AIR LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL MO EWD INTO ILLINOIS ATTM. HOWEVER              
THE FCST FROM BOTH THE RUC AND WRF-NAM SHOW THE LLJ VEERING TO                  
MORE WLY AFT 12Z WHICH TRANSPORTS THIS HIGHER THETAE/UNSTABLE AIR               
EWD INTO CNTRL AND NE MO. IF THIS IS INDEED THE CASE IT WUD ARGUE               
FOR THESE STORMS IN SOME STATE TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST NW PTNS OF                 
THE CWA. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO GENERATES PCPN IN THIS                  
REGION. I HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHC RANGE IN THE                      
AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND CUT TEMPS A TAD WITH THIS IN MIND.                      
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ALONG              
AND NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONT AS A PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ REMAINS               
FOCUSED ALONG THE SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE. A NUMBER OF ROUNDS OF                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE                
HIGH AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RELATIVELY DEEP WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE                 
PCPN EFFICIENCY. IF WE GET SOME PRONLONGED TRAINING THEN WE COULD               
GET INTO A FLOOD THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE               
ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD FINALLY PUSH SE OF              
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST INTO                
THE OH VLY REGION.                                                              
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...                                                             
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS DRAWING MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE                 
AIR UP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY              
BREAKING OUT OVER EASTERN KANSAS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY                
QUITE UNSTABLE THERE. DON'T EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO AFFECT THE               
CWFA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SO HAVE KEPT TERMINALS PRECIP FREE. CLOUDS                 
SHOULD LOWER AND THICKEN ESPECIALLY IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE                 
SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER EASTERN KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI AS CLOUD              
DEBRIS IS PUSHED EASTWARD. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING BELOW 12000FT                 
THOUGH. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE WINDS STAYING BETWEEN                
5-8KTS I THINK THERE'S LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FOG TONIGHT. SCATTERED              
CONVECTION LOOKS PROMISING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY                    
EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE THE STORMS WILL FORM SO HAVE STUCK WITH                   
PROB30S INSTEAD OF TEMPOS FOR THE TIME BEING.                                   
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
128 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA            
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOOD OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO                   
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIFR FOG IN DEEPER                 
RIVER VALLEYS (LWB) THROUGH 12Z FRI. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 848 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SCENARIO THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH DEWPOINT              
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THETA-E RIDGE SW PROVIDING                        
FOCUS/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN WITH THE AREA                  
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN FRONTS...AND LACK OF SUPPORT                         
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT MOST SHRA/TSRA TO FADE BY MIDNIGHT SIMILAR TO              
THE LATEST RUC. POSSIBLE TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA DRIFT SE ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH LATER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES BUT LIKELY JUST MORE CLOUDS              
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE MORE VALLEY FOG AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT                   
GIVEN SOME NORTHWARD INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL                
ALSO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THINGS REMAIN A BIT              
MORE MOIST FOR NOW.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 718 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
BIGGEST CONCERN THRU THE TAF PERIOD IS OVERNIGHT FOG. WITH WEAK                 
SFC RIDGE DRIFTING OVR THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHT/CALM WINDS                     
OVERNIGHT AND RIVER/VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HAVE PLAYED                   
THINGS QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT FOR THE NEW SET                
OF TAFS...WITH THE MOST DENSE FOG LIKELY TO BE FOUND AROUND KLWB                
WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY A                 
COMBO OF MVFR/IFR EXCEPT AROUND KROA WHERE VISBYS SHOULD STAY VFR.              
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLDS ACRS NORTHWEST NORTH                     
CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE                
REGIME...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE AS FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST              
THINGS WILL SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...JUST A TAD MORE WIND               
TOMORROW AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BUT VFR CONDITIONS                    
EXPECTED.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEST-EAST               
DEW POINT GRADIENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ALONG AND               
NEAR THE KMTV-KDAN AREA. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED CELLS TO CONTINUE                
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THEN DISSIPATE. OTHER ISOLATED CELLS HAVE                 
FORMED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO BOTH              
HEATING AND WIND CONVERGENCE. ALSO EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
AROUND SUNSET. THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT CONVECTION IN                     
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PA/MD/NORTHERN               
VA MIGHT CLIP NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE               
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING FROM THIS AREA. BELIEVE              
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENCOUNTER                   
STRONG STABLE LAYER ONCE THE INVERSION FORMS...AND NOT MAKE IT                  
INTO THE REGION. HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG PARTS OF               
THE AREA.                                                                       
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGH                 
PRESSURE KEEPING A STRONG HOLD ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN. WILL FAVOR               
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE IN                  
MOST LOCATIONS.                                                                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH                
THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC DEPICTION AND GRIDS ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS PLACES THE GREATEST CHANCE OF                    
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING                  
CHANCES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES                  
SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NEAR THE DANVILLE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME...AND              
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BRING A SHOWER RIGHT AROUND 18Z...SO I INCLUDED               
A 1 HOUR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANY AFT/EVE                  
CONVECTION WILL STAY EITHER WELL TO THE NORTH...OR TO THE SOUTH...OF            
OUR 5 SITES. WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT                      
WINDS...SO I INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT BLF...LYH AND                     
DAN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT DAN SIMILAR TO THIS                     
MORNING. LWB SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN TO LIFR TOWARD MORNING WITH            
RIVER FOG. ALL FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY A FEW HOURS AFTER                 
SUNRISE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RCS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
601 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TDA AND TNGT)                                                                  
...ACTIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...                                  
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR MODEL ANALYSES                
SHOWED SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH THE W-SWLY             
MIDLEVEL FLOW. THERE WAS A WAVE ABOUT TO ENTER NERN CO AND                      
GENERATING THE ISOLD-SCT SHRA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS ABOUT TO ENTER S                
CNTRL CO AND GENERATING ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.            
ANOTHER WAVE WAS ABOUT TO ENTER NWRN NM WHILE ANOTHER WAS OVER NERN             
UT MOVING EWD. PLENTY OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON                
SATELLITE AND 00Z/25 UPPER AIR OBS DATA. SFC DEW POINTS ARE                     
RESPECTABLE...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE               
TROUBLES MAKING IT TO THE GROUND DUE A "DRY" SLOT IN THE LOW LEVELS.            
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WAS JUST ACROSS THE SERN CO BORDER              
IN SWRN KS. SFC COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO PRECIPITATION            
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTAMINATING THE SFC DATA. THE SFC COLD FRONT               
LIKELY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN NE INTO NWRN KS AND INTO NERN CO. PRESSURE            
RISES HAVE WEAKENED BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THE SWD AND WWD                       
PROGRESSION SHOULD BE SLOWER UNLESS SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN             
PUSH IT FURTHER S AND W.                                                        
TDA AND TNGT...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE             
NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION              
AND MAKING THE SURFACE FEATURES ALMOST DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW. THE                 
00Z/25 AND 06Z/25 NAM-WRF LOOK TO HAVE TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION AND               
RESULTING IN HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS AND CAPE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS             
MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE THE 13KM RUC SOLUTION OF SLOWLY SLIDING THE             
SFC FRONT SWD AND WWD THROUGH TDA. GIVEN THE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING             
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR                  
SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS              
VIRGA OR JUST SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING...AFTN                  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD.            
ANOTHER TSTM GENERATION AREA WILL BE AROUND THE SFC FRONT JUST S OF             
BACA CO THIS AFTN/EVE. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE AROUND              
EXTREME SERN CO WITH PROJECTED CAPE VALUES OF 1K-2K J/KG PER                    
NAM-WRF...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE MODELS SFC DEW POINTS ARE                    
CORRECT. SFC-3KM CAPE IS 100-200 J/KG AND COULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE               
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST N OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS              
EXTREME SERN CO THIS AFTN. LIFTED INDICES WILL RANGE FROM -1C TO                
-4C...THE MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN THE FAR SERN CO                
PLAINS. BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN PAST WEEKS...AND                
WILL BE 35-50KTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW JUXTAPOSED WITH THE               
MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELL TSTM             
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE               
STILL RELATIVELY HIGHER...13K-15K FT MSL...BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD            
SUPPORT HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS PROGGED TO            
BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND COULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 35-45KTS.                    
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH               
WET BULB ZERO/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY                
VALUES OF 5-6 G/KG. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO INCLUDE A HIGHER                 
THREAT OVER THE MTS AND FAR SERN CO PLAINS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. THE              
ONE DEFINITE FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH             
OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY SERN CO. THINK THE MET MOS IS TOO COOL                 
GIVEN ALL THE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED BY THE MODEL...                     
ESPECIALLY SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO MET MOS PREDICTED            
HIGHS. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS MAV MOS. MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW                   
CONTINUES ALOFT TNGT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD               
DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.                  
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS             
AND KS TNGT. METZE                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER/WARMER                
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.                                                
UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN ON                     
SAT...THEN LIFT OUT ACROSS NRN CO ON SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS APPEAR TO              
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM.               
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW                   
POINTS INTO SE CO ON SAT. THIS YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500                  
J/KG ACROSS SE CO. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CIN WILL BE IN PLACE...AND              
FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEAR GREATEST CIN WILL BE ACROSS KIOWA                 
COUNTY WHERE NAM12 KEEP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG. FLOW ALOFT                
WILL BE INCREASING ON SAT AS 70 KT UPPER JET TRANSLATES OVER THE                
REGION. COUPLED WITH EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW RESULTS IN 40-45 KTS OF              
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL                     
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.               
WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN                  
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS FOR                
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.                                                             
BEST QG ASCENT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS/NAM                 
PRINTING OUT HIGHEST QPF VALUES DOWN AROUND THE FRONT ACROSS NRN                
NM/TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER A SECONDARY MAX OCCURS ALONG THE                       
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN CO/SRN WY COINCIDENT WITH BEST QG LIFT                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE BULLS                
EYES OF QPF WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS SE CO...SO PLAN TO KEEP                   
BROAD BRUSH HIGH SCATTERED POPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME                   
LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN BACA COUNTY IN PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY. FOR SUNDAY UPPER TROF IS SLOW TO EXIT NE CO. SHOULD SEE               
DRIER CONDITIONS OUT WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND THE                
TROF. EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE ANOTHER                   
UNSETTLED DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF HELPS TO                
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. CAPES IN 06Z RUN LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN                  
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT CIN IS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY...AND MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME HIGHER CAPES IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE                   
SOUNDINGS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEARS                
STILL RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS...WHICH AGAIN WOULD SUPPORT                      
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE                  
EXITING TROF THOUGH. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND                       
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG TO THE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY TIME RANGE. ALSO           
COOLED OFF MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY.                                   
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES BACK                 
OVER THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPRESSED TO               
THE SOUTH. THUS...SHOULD SEE GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE                   
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR CLIMO                 
VALUES BY WEEKS END.  -KT                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THREATENING              
THE AREA... ONE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...                  
ANOTHER OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.                                             
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA ARE THE LEFTOVERS OF A               
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH MOVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.                
THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT... AND ARE STILL             
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY               
AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PER 12Z KILX SOUNDING.  SFC OBS SHOW A LITTLE             
BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT... SO            
THIS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY AS FAR EAST AS MCLEAN COUNTY            
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC               
WAVE OVER IOWA AND TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS MISSOURI.  COMMA-SHAPED               
APPEARANCE ON RADAR INDICATES SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION WITH THIS             
CLUSTER... ARCING BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  HOWEVER... LATEST               
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAKENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SFC MOISTURE AXIS.                                        
OVERALL... POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...            
KEEPING ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS WEST OF I-55.  BETTER              
RISK OF PRECIP WILL COME IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ACTUAL SFC              
COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY OVER IOWA... MOVES INTO THE PICTURE.                    
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO COOL TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS               
AROUND... AND MADE CLOUD GRIDS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC.  UPDATED              
ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006/                                             
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS              
RUNS OR IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY WITH A                
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY             
NEXT WEEK AFTER A DRY STRETCH THE PAST 4 TO 5 DAYS THIS WEEK.                   
NAM/WRF AND NGM DID NOT PICK UP ON CONVECTION AROUND KANSAS CITY                
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RUC AND GFS PICKING THIS UP BETTER. ONE                 
NOTED TREND OF MODELS IS LESS QPF OVER NORTHERN AREAS FROM PEORIA               
NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL TRY TO BLEND THIS FORECAST WITH            
SOME CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALONG WITH MESHING WITH                  
SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
07Z/2 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW IOWA                
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA AND WI/IL                
BORDER INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB WAS            
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING WEST INTO THE MID MS                   
VALLEY. ANOTHER MCS UP NORTH OVER NE IA...SE MN AND INTO WI AND                 
TRACKING ESE WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF COVERING AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD NE.            
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SE IL TO THE UPPER 60S AND            
LOWER 70S OVER CENTRAL IL FROM MATTOON NW. DEWPOINTS WERE 60 TO 65F             
WITH SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHT TO CALM OVER SE IL CLOSER             
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ALOFT 592 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH                
PRESSURE WAS OVER TX WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE              
WESTERN STATES AND LAKE WINNIPEG AND MN/DAKOTAS.                                
HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP EASTERN IL DRY TODAY BUT ADDED 20/30 PERCENT              
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON.            
SHORT WAVE NEAR KANSAS CITY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MO AND TOWARD                   
WESTCENTRAL IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS HAVE BEEN QUICKER                
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. GETS MORE UNSTABLE ALONG AND             
WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON TOO WITH LIFTED INDICES MINUS 4 TO 6C               
AND CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AS DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE UPPER              
60S TO AROUND 70F. LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW IOWA MOVES EAST INTO                
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI SAT. WILL BE              
INCREASING CONVECTION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH SHORT              
WAVE MOVING ACROSS IL TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER BY 12Z/SAT. SPC HAS               
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE NW OF THE IL RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE                 
UPPER 80S WITH SW AREAS NEAR 90F AND MORE HUMID.                                
GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION SAT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH              
INTO CENTRAL IL AND AIR MASS UNSTABLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM IL RIVER            
SE WHERE LIFTED INDEX MINUS 4 TO 6C AND CAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SPC            
HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE JUST EAST OF EAST CENTRAL IL INTO                     
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS SHIFT QPF FURTHER SOUTH SAT NIGHT              
AND SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SE IL WITH LESS QPF                
OVER AREAS FROM PEORIA NORTH...SO LOWERED CONVECTION CHANCES FROM 60            
TO 30/40 PERCENT. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF             
I-72 WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING UP FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.                
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO            
RIVER MON TO KEEP CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY              
SE IL. AREAS NW OF THE IL MAY BE DRY AND WILL LOWER POPS THERE TO               
MESH UP WITH NEARBY OFFICES. CONVECTION CHANCES DIMINISH FROM NW TO             
SE DURING MON NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOP HEAVY QPF OVER IL FROM              
LATER SUNDAY INTO MON NIGHT...BUT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS            
AND NOT FOLLOWED.                                                               
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
EXTENDED MODEL ENSEMBLES SHIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TUE               
ALONG WITH CONVECTION CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN IL WHILE CENTRAL IL                 
APPEARS DRY. DGEX IS ODD MODEL KEEPING QPF OVER IL TUE AND WED. BUT             
MOST EXTENDED MODELS ARE KEEPING IT DRIER DURING MID AND LATE WEEK              
AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TOO. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FROM 80 TO 85.           
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN/HUETTL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1047 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. EXPANSIVE                  
DEBRIS CLOUD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS OVERCAST AT 14Z...EXCEPT FOR THE               
FAR SW AND SE CORNERS OF THE CWA. MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM               
WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT AREAL EXTENT OF                 
CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL                
TRENDS. WILL WORD ZFP AS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. IF CLOUDS REMAIN              
THICK ENOUGH THEY WILL RETARD SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL STAY                
WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND BANK ON                     
THINNING/DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.                                
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NW STILL LOOKS GOOD.             
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM                   
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. STORMS BEING                 
DRIVEN BY MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS LLJ CONTINUES             
TO VEER DIURNALLY TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. 12Z PROXIMITY RAOB              
SOUNDINGS AND SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A LARGE THETA-E                
MINIMUM DOMINATING THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT            
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...HOWEVER 06Z NAM                    
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HIGHER THETA-E PLUME OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM A MCS TO THE NORTHWEST.             
JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE MCS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER            
TODAY ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BEGIN MOVING IN               
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO             
THE NORTH AND THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT TIL TOWARDS THE END OF              
THIS TAF PERIOD AND WITH BEING SUCH A LOW CHANCE...DID NOT MENTION              
ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. THE WIND ACROSS THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LIGHT TO            
CALM...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH TO              
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AND THEN CALM DOWN SOME AGAIN TONIGHT. MOS                 
GUIDANCE IS HINTING SOME FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT SINCE THIS              
IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS MOMENT.              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
OVERNIGHT THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN CRANKING IT OUT BUT THE             
ONLY EFFECTS OUR CWA HAS FELT FROM IT HAVE BEEN HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS               
CLOUDS. THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH WILL NOT MOVE              
MUCH TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF             
THE U.S. GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL KEEP OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR                 
TODAY AND WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 19 TO 20 DEGREES                
CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE            
MIDDLE 80S. THE NAM/WRF HAS NOT WAVERED WITH THE POSITION OF THE                
TROUGH/FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND THE GFS HAS SEEMED TO BACK OFF WITH            
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. HAVE             
TRIMMED BACK THE LOW CHANCE POPS A TAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE                
WEST/NORTHWEST BUT WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO BE CLOSE              
TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA...DECIDED TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH              
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL A LOW POP CHANCE WHICH IS SAYING A                  
GREATER CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE DRY. THESE ARE JUST MODELS AFTER ALL             
AND THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT COULD STILL BE CLOSER               
THAN WHAT THEY ARE SAYING. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT                
WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...OVERSPREADING THE CHANCE               
FOR RAIN TO THE REST OF THE CWA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT EXISTS JUST TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST.                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAP TO BE OVER THE CWA TODAY LIMITING             
OUR CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST POTENTIAL LIKE                     
MENTIONED IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE             
TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE               
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH                    
INSTABILITY CLOSE BY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                        
BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY AS POTENT SRN CANADA SHORTWAVE            
ENERGY DROPS ESE INTO GREAT LAKES. SOME QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO                
FRONTAL TIMING WITH NAM OUTLIER IN SCOURING FRONT THROUGH MUCH                  
FASTER. PREFERENCE LIES TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. FRONT               
SHOULD SLOW WITH SURFACE WAVE REFLECTION ALONG FRONT IN SOUTHERN                
PLAINS LIKELY GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET PRESENCE FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK                   
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY            
MIDDAY AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES 2000-2500            
J/KG AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLS AHEAD OF FRONT. 0-6KM BULK LAYER                
SHEAR 25-30 KTS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MINOR SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL. CONCERN WITH POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NRN             
CWA WITH LATEST GFS TAKING FRONT SOUTH OF CWA TO NEAR OHIO RIVER AND            
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH DRIER                    
AIRMASS. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO AND DEFER TO LATER             
RUNS AS STILL SOME CONCERN WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LOTHAMER                                                  
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1207 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.                      
VIS SAT SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH -SHRA ACROSS            
THE WEST 2/3. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SHRA THE BEST.  THE              
12Z NAM SHOWS ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 300-315K AND A DEEP MOISTURE               
AXIS COINCIDING WITH THE MAX PRECIP AT 12-15Z. IT SHOWS THIS DEEP               
MOISTURE AXIS MOVING ALMOST OUT OF OUR CWA BY 18Z...EXCEPT OVER THE             
FAR EAST. WV SHOWS SHRTWV OVER OUR CWA AT 12Z...ALSO HELPING TO                 
PRODUCE THE SHRA...AND THIS SHRTWV WILL ALSO EXIT BY 18Z. THUS...OUR            
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS RIGHT NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST.                
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT TO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS MAIN SHRA. SHRTWV OVER CWA WILL            
EXIT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.            
WV AND KMSP/KINL SNDGS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS MOVING             
INTO OUR CWA. HOWEVER...KRHI TAMDAR REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AT LOW                 
LEVELS THROUGH 700MB AND KGRB SNDG IS DRIER ABOVE 850MB. SCATTERED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL WI...ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE NOSE OF A 250MB JET AND 500MB SHRTWV. THE INTERSECTION OF              
THIS SHRTWV AND 850MB AXIS OF MOIST AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN             
WI MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE            
REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS FILLING IN WITH THE NEXT                  
SHRTWV...SO WENT WITH SCT RW- OVER KEWEENAW AND MID LAKE...A CHANCE             
OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE               
U.P...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MNM               
COUNTY...MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 2.                                                 
THE GOING FCST MAX TEMPS LOOKED FINE SINCE THE OVC CLOUD COVER IS               
HANGING IN THERE. WINDS AND WAVES ALSO SEEM TO BE ON TRACK ATTM.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY INTO SAT.                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RDG INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES              
AND WRN ONTARIO BTWN A TROF OVER ERN NOAM AND ANOTHER TROF MOVING IN            
FROM SASK INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED                
OVER SW MN WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE E THROUGH CNTRL WI INTO SRN            
LWR MI WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO HUDSON             
BAY. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH SRN MN AND CENTRAL WI ALONG               
WITH AN ASSOC 80 KT 250 MB JET STREAK IS HELPING SUSTAIN CONVECTION             
OVER SE MN AND WCNTRL WI ATTM. DECENT 700-600 MB FGEN FORCING AS                
NOTED ON RUC XSECTIONS HAS INITIATED A BAND OF CONVECTION OVER FAR              
NCNTRL WI WHICH IS MOVING INTO UPR MI BORDER COUNTIES EARLY THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
TODAY...06Z RUC AND 00Z NAM INDICATE FGEN SHRA BAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY            
ENE TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 18Z AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR            
OVER ERN COUNTIES. EVEN SO...MODELS STILL SHOW MODEST 850-500 MB                
Q-VECT CONV AND 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADING NE ACROSS THE FCST             
AREA THROUGH 18Z. IN SHORT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR COUNTIES              
ALONG WI BDR AND LAKE MI...AND THEN TAPER TO LOW CHC 30 POPS FOR FAR            
ERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER ERLY FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BEAT             
BACK ADVANCE OF SHRA SOMEWHAT. WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH            
OF THE WARM FRONT...ONLY ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE             
WI BDR AND LAKE MI COUNTIES...PER LIMITED INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON               
GFS AND NAM MLCAPE FCST.                                                        
TONIGHT INTO SAT...AS MORE FAVORABLE UPR LVL SUPPORT AND WAA SHIFTS             
TO THE EAST THE PCPN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.                        
HOWEVER...LOW LVL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF MOVING INTO UPR             
MI COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND DRYING ABV 700 MB                
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. EXPECT DRY              
ADVECTION AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS                 
ALONG WITH INCREASING QVECTOR DIV TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND DURING            
SAT AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.                                                    
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A MID               
LVL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES AND                     
BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP WX DRY FOR THE REST OF            
THE WEEKEND. SFC RDG AXIS MOVING OVER WESTERN INTERIOR SHOULD ALLOW             
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS READINGS DIP INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE                     
TRADITIONAL COLD DRAINAGE SPOTS. EXPECT FCST 8H TEMPS OF 12C NORTH              
TO 13-14C SOUTH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPR             
70S ON SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MRE (UPDATE)                                                                    
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...14Z SURFACE/IR SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR/AND RUC ANALYSIS              
SHOWING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER                
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL IOWA. CLOSER TO HOME...LARGE SHIELD OF                    
RAIN...DRIVEN BY MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF 850MB LOW LEVEL                    
JET...CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND             
THE EASTERN UPPER. RAIN IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE INTO NORTHERN CHIPPEWA            
COUNTY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY                     
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT            
THIS RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE EAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN            
INTENSITY AS JET WEAKENS. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
DAY CENTER AROUND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG              
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.                            
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTH AS RAIN COOLED AIR             
HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. BEST INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN WARM SECTOR. GIVEN                        
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LATEST RUC                 
FORECAST...FEEL FRONT WILL NOT MAKE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING               
THE DAY. KINEMATICS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES             
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY GREATER THAN 350 M2/S2.                   
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH FRONT SO FAR SOUTH             
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH A WORST               
CASE SCENARIO HIGH OF 74 AND DEWPOINT OF 63 DOES YIELD ML CAPE OF               
OVER 1000J/KG. A MORE CONSERVATIVE TEMPERATURE OF 71 YIELDS CAPE ON             
ONLY ABOUT 200J/KG. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES DOES SHOW SOME CLEARING             
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY REACHING              
THE LOW 70S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLEARING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.               
GIVEN ABOVE MENTIONED WIND FIELDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH                       
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SEVERE WIND THREAT. PRESENCE OF SUBTLE                
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWARD                 
ADVECTION OF 850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AS FOR THE MARINE ISSUES...WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SCA AS STIFF 15 TO             
20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS FUNNEL ACROSS THE LAKES. AM EXPECTING WINDS              
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT                
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF IOWA LOW.                                             
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFRESHEN WORDING.                   
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                         
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT                 
FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH GETS NUDGED                 
FARTHER EAST...WHILE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY                    
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF AK.  SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST                
AREA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES                  
PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.  SURFACE FRONT LYING            
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES             
REGION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING                   
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG MN/IA BORDER RIDES ALONG IT.  MAIN FORECAST                  
CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION IN WARM ADVECTION               
PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WELL AS              
FORECAST POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AS THAT WILL IMPACT ANY SEVERE               
WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY.                                                        
TODAY/TONIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION              
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING...FORMING                 
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING WI ALONG WITH RRQ FORCING FROM              
100+KT JET STREAK CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...AND              
IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF STALLED               
FRONT RUNNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN/WI/NORTHERN IL/IN/OH PER                   
MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS.  AXIS OF 1.50+ INCH PW VALUES ALSO POOLED            
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI/WI/              
MN...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES              
8+ C/KM) CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF.  BACK EDGE OF THIS RAIN                    
CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MID LEVEL                  
TROUGH AXIS...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR                
NORTHWEST WI.  MAIN SHOW IS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY                
WHERE STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/                    
NORTHEAST IA...WHERE OF COURSE THE GUIDANCE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE                
DOING SO HOT IN PICKING UP THE QPF THERE.  SO AS USUAL IN THESE                 
SITUATIONS TRYING TO FERRET DETAILS OUT OF THE MODELS IS PROBABLY A             
SOMEWHAT FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR...BUT INITIAL THINKING IS THAT LEADING              
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY               
CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING             
THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL LOWER                      
COUNTIES.  AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATE THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL                
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY            
IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND              
ALLOWING A BUBBLE OF RAIN-COOLED AIR TO BLUNT NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE             
BOUNDARY.  GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WILL BE                      
LIMITED...THOUGH WITH 700- 500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5C/KM                     
ANTICIPATED WON'T REQUIRE MUCH WARMING TO GENERATE SOME CAPE                    
(400-800 J/KG)...AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR MAY NOT REQUIRE A LARGE               
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.  0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF            
40-50KT COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITHIN              
WARM FRONTAL ZONE WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POTENTIAL                  
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS (IF BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT            
TOO STABLE).  SO POTENTIAL IS THERE...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF PERSISTENT            
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING MORE DETRIMENTAL OR INSTABILITY               
TOO MARGINAL (BRN BELOW 10...TOO MUCH SHEAR VERSUS INSTABILITY???).             
BEST THREAT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE STEEPER MID               
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                                            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WARM                 
ADVECTION PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD            
GREEN BAY.                                                                      
SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CREEP SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN...DRAGGING WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI.  EXPECT             
CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                      
FEATURE... PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.  WILL              
DRAG RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE LOW/COLD                 
FRONT NOT FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                       
MARINE...EASTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO            
SOUTHERN WI.  FAIRLY BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL (925MB WINDS                  
20-30KTS) SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN MOST                    
NEARSHORE ZONES...ENHANCED BY COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHEAST               
UPPER SHORELINE AND FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.  WILL            
RUN THIS THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                  
SATURDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE LAKE HURON                 
SIDE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PICK UP                 
AGAIN IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH 20KT LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST.              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1127 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CTRL PA IS FCST TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY.                  
CLOUDS ARE BREAKING NICELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...HANGING                      
TOUGHEST EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT BFD THRU RDG. WITH DEWPOINTS                 
RISING INTO THE 60S...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME MODEST                  
INSTABILITY WITH RUC ANALS SHOWING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J OVER                 
WRN AND SERN PA. SREF FORECASTS OF CAPE ARE MORE MODEST BUT ALSO                
HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST AND SUNSHINE IS               
OR WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. WITH THE BOUNDARY MAINLY THRU THE NRN                 
HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...THINK THAT WILL BE WHERE THE BEST CHC OF              
THUNDER WILL REMAIN WITH JUST SPOTTY ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF              
MY FCST AREA.                                                                   
LA CORTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 301 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
MANY THINGS GOING ON HERE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.                         
WARM FRONT NOW SOMEWHERE NEAR PIT TO JUST SOUTH OF JST AND NOT                  
MOVING AT THIS HOUR. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE S/WV NOW                       
ENTERING NWRN ZNS...AND NOT REALLY DECREASING AS THEY MOVE IN. BUT              
COVERAGE IS NOT TOTAL...MORE LIKE 40/50 PCT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT                   
PRECIP UPSTREAM APPEARS TO BE REMNANTS OF MASSIVE CONVECTIVE                    
CLUSTER OV WI EARLIER THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC                
POPS UP IN THE NRN THIRD THIS MORNING. PCPN THIS AFTN VERY MUCH A               
MORE DIFFICULT CALL. UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND MORNING PRECIP WILL KEEP               
US DARKER THAN NECESSARY FOR BEST DESTABILIZATION...AND MAY KEEP                
THE WARM FRONT FROM GOING TOO FAR NORTH TODAY. THAT ARGUES FOR TWO              
THINGS...BETTER HELICITY OVER SRN/CENTRAL PA...BUT ALSO FOR LOW                 
CAPES.                                                                          
WILL HOLD WITH CONTINUITY AND KEEP MENTIONS OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY                
THIS MORNING...AND LEAVE IN A REAL LOW POP FOR THE AFTN IN THE                  
N/C....AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFT 22Z /6PM/ MAINLY OVER THE NERN               
HALF OF CWA. WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP THIS                     
MORNING...WILL HOLD MAXES IN 70S IN THE NORTH...BUT MENTION MID                 
80S IN SOUTH.                                                                   
TONIGHT...WILL GO FOR SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER IN THE                  
NORTH/EAST AND LESS ACTIVITY TO THE SW...WHERE WE MAY ACTUALLY BE               
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DRY. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION - MAINLY                      
ELEVATED - IS EXPECT TO DROP NW-SE ACROSS MY NE HALF. TEMPS UPPER               
50S IN NORTH AND M/U60S IN SOUTH.                                               
SATURDAY MAY ALSO START OUT MAINLY DRY...ESP IN THE WEST AND                    
CENTRAL ZNS...BUT GET BUSIER IN THE AFTN WITH PESKY SLOW MOVING                 
WARM FRONT IN VCTY HELPING TO CREATE SOME LIFT. MOST MAX TEMPS                  
SHOULD GO A FEW DEGS HIER SAT THAN TODAY.                                       
SAT NITE AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDER FOR THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE THUSLY ADJUSTED                  
POPS UP QUITE A BIT...TO 60S FOR THE NORTH AND 40-50 FOR THE REST               
OF THE AREA. WITH WM FNT STILL LINGERING AND A CD FNT NEARING FROM              
NW...HI POPS ARE IN ORDER. FUNNY - OR MAYBE TELLING - THAT THIS                 
TIME FRAME /SAT-SUN/ IS EXACTLY WHEN THE HIGHEST PWATS HAVE BEEN                
PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BY THE GFS EPS -                  
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM.                                                     
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FROM N-S ON MONDAY AND HAVE ALSO MADE                
INTER-OFFICE-COORDINATED DROPS IN POPS FOR MON-TUE...MAKING MUCH                
OF THAT TIME DRY IN ZFP WORDING...HOLDING ONLY 20 OR SO POPS FOR                
THEN. NEWEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT THAT               
SFC HIGH SHOULD WORK S IN TO PA AND PROVIDE FAIR WX. REST OF                    
EXTENDED NOT TOUCHED.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED               
LOW CEILINGS. CURRENTLY KIPT HAS DROPPED INTO IFR CATEGORY WITH A               
OVC004 LAYER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH OTHER SITES                    
MAINLY DROPPING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR. EXPECT SIMILAR                      
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS COVERING THIS.              
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM MCS OVER WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE              
AREA THROUGH AROUND 16Z. THERE MAY EVEN BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER            
BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO PLACE VCSH IN THE LATE MORNING PERIOD.            
OTHERWISE...ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR TODAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1119 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A               
VERY WELL-DEFINED PUNCH OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHING                  
INTO SC AND GA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A                   
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING EAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL               
QUITE SOUPY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. A SFC                  
TROUGH IS STILL LYING ACROSS THE AREA...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC/GA                
BORDER AND ACROSS THE WATERS ALBEIT SUBTLE. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT                
FOG HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWFA THROUGH LATE                   
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW                 
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC COAST NEAR CHARLESTON. WEAK MOISTURE              
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR                 
THIS ACTIVITY...AND SEEMS TO STILL BE SQUEEZING OUT SOME SHOWERS.               
IT APPEARS THAT BEYOND 2 PM OR SO THE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC                 
WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE E OR SE...WHICH SHOULD                     
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS SC.                     
HOWEVER BETTER INSOLATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND CONTINUED HIGH                
LLVL THETA-E IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG SEABREEZE SHOULD PRODUCE                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE                  
UPDATED POPS TO TREND FROM A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY IN THE CHS                    
VICINITY THROUGH EARLY AFTN TO SLIGHT CHC OR CHC LATER IN THE                   
DAY...HIGHEST S. ALSO...DUE TO THE PROLONGED LOW CLOUDINESS...HAVE              
DECREASED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD BY A FEW DEGREES AND                      
INCREASED SKY GRIDS. NEW PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THIS                
MORNING. WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING AND VEERING TO NE OR                       
E...WHICH IS TRANSITIONING THE REMNANT FOG ISSUES AT SAV TO A LOW               
STRATUS DECK. CHS HAS HAD MVFR VSBYS FOR QUITE A WHILE...MAINLY                 
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THE COAST.                
CIGS HAD LIFTED TO MVFR BUT HAVE NOW COME BACK DOWN TO IFR WITH                 
BKN009. WINDS HAVE JUST TIPPED TO SE AT CHS WHICH MAY BE THE EARLY              
STAGES OF THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER THE MARINE AIRMASS IS QUITE                    
SIMILAR TO THE LAND...THUS NO HUGE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. LUCKILY                  
TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS...SO                  
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S SHOULD YIELD SOME CIGS AROUND                 
1500 FT IN TWO HOURS OR SO.                                                     
LATER TONIGHT MORE LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE DRIER SFC AIR                   
AGAIN DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TWEAKED SOME WIND DIRECTIONS BASED ON THE LATEST RUC                  
GUIDANCE AND INCREASED EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR FOR THIS              
AFTN TO 15 KT. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SC                 
NEARSHORE AND HARBOR THROUGH EARLY AFTN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
426 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)                                    
NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE LINED UP BETTER THIS MODEL RUN WITH THE                 
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND                  
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. THE WEAK STATIONARY               
FRONT THAT HAS AFFECTED THE STATE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW                  
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA WITH CONTINUED PWS FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES AND                  
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THESE COMBINED WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE               
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EARLY EVENING AGAIN FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE WEAK               
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE                 
DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NORTH                  
HALF OF GEORGIA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN                 
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY                
FLOW LATE SUNDAY WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN                    
ACROSS THE STATE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE                  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                             
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                            
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION IS FORECAST              
TO MOVE EAST BY THE GFS AND PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA               
BY MID WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE               
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS THEN TRIES TO DRY AREA              
OUT BY END OF WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE            
MODEL STABILITY INDICES AND MOISTURE FIELD THAT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH             
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE WITH              
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES SHOULD GO            
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING GIVING US GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT            
AND THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT. RUC/GFS/ETA INDICATE LOW LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED BETWEEN            
06Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND BY 18Z EXPECT              
SKIES TO BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN BUT ABOVE 3000 FT. THERE ARE                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AND EXPECT TAFS              
TO BE DRY THROUGH 00Z SUN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         69  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10                                
ATHENS          67  89  68  89 /   5   5  10  10                                
GAINESVILLE     68  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  10                                
ROME            69  92  71  92 /   5  10  10  20                                
COLUMBUS        73  90  74  90 /  20  30  10  30                                
MACON           72  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  20                                
PEACHTREE CITY  67  88  70  89 /  10  20  10  20                                
CARTERSVILLE    66  90  68  90 /   5  10  10  20                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
16                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM RESERVOIR OF GREATER                
INSTABILITY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS              
AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE...CHANCES OF CONVECTION SURVIVING THE TRIP TO            
KSBN APPEAR SMALL AT THIS TIME. NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST A SLOW                     
IMPROVEMENT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND            
HIGHER QUALITY THETA-E AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLOWLY EAST. WILL KEEP            
TAFS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD. LATE            
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED              
WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD                
PROMOTE BR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY TO                 
COVER POTENTIAL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR                  
AROUND DAYBREAK AS MENTIONED AT KSBN. ON SATURDAY DEEP LAYER FRONTAL            
ZONE WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HINGES             
ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH QUESTIONS REMAINING ON HOW MUCH               
DEBRIS CLOUD WILL EXIST. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE HAVE INTRODUCED A CB            
QUALIFIER ONLY AND WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO INCREASE MENTION IF               
NECESSARY WHEN MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS MORE CERTAIN.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                                            
CWA HAS BEEN SHROUDED IN A HIGH CIRRUS CANOPY ALL DAY FROM BLOWOFF              
OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ENOUGH SUNSHINE               
HAS FILTERED THROUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S AT 18Z            
FOR MOST SITES. CLUSTER OF EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SE WISCONSIN HAS             
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND MOVED INTO               
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES             
TO SHOW AN 850MB DEWPOINT MINIMUM CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHICH...                
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...HAS EFFECTIVELY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION. AS            
EXPECTED...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN LAST HOUR OVER NW               
ILLINOIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE WAKE OF WEAKENING                   
ACTIVITY WHERE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT              
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION MUCH MORE FAVORABLE             
WITHIN A CHANNEL OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF                
DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO                   
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST A                
SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH THETA-E                   
ADVECTION ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW              
FOR CONVECTION SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST OVERNIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY              
WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND RELATIVELY WEAK               
AND VEERED LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST BY THE NAM-WRF. WILL CONTINUE WITH            
SAME BASIC IDEA OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING             
WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED               
POPS ALTOGETHER IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA.                                
ON SATURDAY DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY                
EAST IN RESPONSE TO EJECTION OF WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW            
OVER THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO EVOLVE            
ALONG THE FRONT MANIFESTED AS WEAK SURFACE WAVES AND MID LEVEL                  
VORTICITY MAXIMA. MESOSCALE EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY COMPLEX             
AND INTERPLAY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS AND SUBSEQUENT ABILITY TO             
DESTABILIZE. BOTH NAM/GFS ARE VERY NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK               
AND BOTH HAVE HAD VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH PLACEMENT AND            
TIMING OF FRONT. WITH LITTLE HELP FROM MODELS...WILL STAY THE COURSE            
FROM CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES                
BEING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY             
DEVELOPS...KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR              
ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS...BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS            
A FEW HYBRID SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES              
THIS SUMMER HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE STRICTLY                       
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                  
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE             
THROUGH SUNDAY.  WILL START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SHORT TERM LEFT            
OFF...EMPLOYING ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  KEY             
TO EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE HOW UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTN BECOMES                
...AND WHETHER ANY DISCERNIBLE/TRACEABLE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE                  
REGION TO PROVIDE SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT.  OTHERWISE...RELYING ON THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL MAKE IT HARD PRESSED TO GO                         
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.   AT THIS                    
POINT...AM DISCOUNTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SFC WAVE ALONG THE                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ACRS THE FCST AREA AS                    
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS.  THUS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 12Z                  
NAM-WRF WHICH NOW SAGS THE FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION                
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING                
ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ACRS              
THE SOUTH...KEEPING OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES DRY.  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT                
INTO MONDAY...12Z NAM-WRF HINTS AT A POSSIBLE LOW LVL DEFORMATION               
AXIS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE QUITE             
LOW (LESS THAN 200 J/KG)...SO HAVE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS SUNDAY             
NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND MONDAY ACRS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FCST                
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN DURING THE DAY BOTH SUNDAY AND            
MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.                                
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG               
RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE MOVEMENT OF AN               
UPR LVL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AS THE               
UPR LVL LOW EJECTS E INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE CANADIAN MODEL               
DEVELOPS A SFC WAVE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING IT NORTH              
OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE PERIOD.  OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE                
LATEST 12Z GFS...KEEP THE SFC REFLECTION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.               
AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP REGION DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...AND HOPE FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  WILL            
HOWEVER...INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AS MID AND UPR LVL FLOW WILL                 
LIKELY EJECT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST             
LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPR LVL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE              
WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPR LVL TROF ACRS THE PAC NW AND ALSO ACRS NEW             
ENGLAND/NE CANADA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS FROM               
THE UPR MIDWEST INTO S CNTRL CANADA.  THIS UPR LVL ORIENTATION                  
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                  
THUS...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ALONG WITH NEAR                
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD             
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST             
6 HOURS OR SO WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...MAIN CONCERN IS                 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPSTREAM CONVECTION RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER                
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. EXPECT THIS              
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.             
RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN 850MB DEWPOINT                  
MINIMUM CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHICH IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY               
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CHANGE EVENTUALLY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
ADVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW              
IN ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KSBN               
OVERNIGHT AS A START. NO MENTION AT ALL FOR KFWA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN            
FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT TO                 
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT SAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW WITH                  
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO MESOSCALE                     
EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                 
LONG TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                                            
CWA HAS BEEN SHROUDED IN A HIGH CIRRUS CANOPY ALL DAY FROM BLOWOFF              
OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ENOUGH SUNSHINE               
HAS FILTERED THROUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S AT 18Z            
FOR MOST SITES. CLUSTER OF EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SE WISCONSIN HAS             
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND MOVED INTO               
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES             
TO SHOW AN 850MB DEWPOINT MINIMUM CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHICH...                
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER...HAS EFFECTIVELY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION. AS            
EXPECTED...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN LAST HOUR OVER NW               
ILLINOIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE WAKE OF WEAKENING                   
ACTIVITY WHERE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT              
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION MUCH MORE FAVORABLE             
WITHIN A CHANNEL OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF                
DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO                   
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST A                
SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH THETA-E                   
ADVECTION ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW              
FOR CONVECTION SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST OVERNIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY              
WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND RELATIVELY WEAK               
AND VEERED LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST BY THE NAM-WRF. WILL CONTINUE WITH            
SAME BASIC IDEA OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING             
WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED               
POPS ALTOGETHER IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA.                                
ON SATURDAY DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY                
EAST IN RESPONSE TO EJECTION OF WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW            
OVER THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO EVOLVE            
ALONG THE FRONT MANIFESTED AS WEAK SURFACE WAVES AND MID LEVEL                  
VORTICITY MAXIMA. MESOSCALE EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY COMPLEX             
AND INTERPLAY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS AND SUBSEQUENT ABILITY TO             
DESTABILIZE. BOTH NAM/GFS ARE VERY NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK               
AND BOTH HAVE HAD VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH PLACEMENT AND            
TIMING OF FRONT. WITH LITTLE HELP FROM MODELS...WILL STAY THE COURSE            
FROM CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES                
BEING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY             
DEVELOPS...KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR              
ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS...BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS            
A FEW HYBRID SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES              
THIS SUMMER HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE STRICTLY                       
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                  
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE             
THROUGH SUNDAY.  WILL START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SHORT TERM LEFT            
OFF...EMPLOYING ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  KEY             
TO EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE HOW UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTN BECOMES                
...AND WHETHER ANY DISCERNIBLE/TRACEABLE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE                  
REGION TO PROVIDE SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT.  OTHERWISE...RELYING ON THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL MAKE IT HARD PRESSED TO GO                         
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.   AT THIS                    
POINT...AM DISCOUNTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SFC WAVE ALONG THE                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ACRS THE FCST AREA AS                    
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS.  THUS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 12Z                  
NAM-WRF WHICH NOW SAGS THE FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION                
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING                
ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ACRS              
THE SOUTH...KEEPING OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES DRY.  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT                
INTO MONDAY...12Z NAM-WRF HINTS AT A POSSIBLE LOW LVL DEFORMATION               
AXIS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE QUITE             
LOW (LESS THAN 200 J/KG)...SO HAVE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS SUNDAY             
NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND MONDAY ACRS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FCST                
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN DURING THE DAY BOTH SUNDAY AND            
MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.                                
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG               
RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE MOVEMENT OF AN               
UPR LVL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AS THE               
UPR LVL LOW EJECTS E INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE CANADIAN MODEL               
DEVELOPS A SFC WAVE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING IT NORTH              
OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE PERIOD.  OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE                
LATEST 12Z GFS...KEEP THE SFC REFLECTION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.               
AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP REGION DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...AND HOPE FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  WILL            
HOWEVER...INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AS MID AND UPR LVL FLOW WILL                 
LIKELY EJECT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST             
LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPR LVL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE              
WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPR LVL TROF ACRS THE PAC NW AND ALSO ACRS NEW             
ENGLAND/NE CANADA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS FROM               
THE UPR MIDWEST INTO S CNTRL CANADA.  THIS UPR LVL ORIENTATION                  
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                  
THUS...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ALONG WITH NEAR                
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD             
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST             
6 HOURS OR SO WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...MAIN CONCERN IS                 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPSTREAM CONVECTION RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER                
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. EXPECT THIS              
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.             
RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN 850MB DEWPOINT                  
MINIMUM CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHICH IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY               
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CHANGE EVENTUALLY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
ADVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW              
IN ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KSBN               
OVERNIGHT AS A START. NO MENTION AT ALL FOR KFWA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN            
FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT TO                 
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT SAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW WITH                  
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO MESOSCALE                     
EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                 
LONG TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD             
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MANY CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST             
6 HOURS OR SO WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...MAIN CONCERN IS                 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPSTREAM CONVECTION RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER                
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. EXPECT THIS              
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.             
RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN 850MB DEWPOINT                  
MINIMUM CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHICH IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY               
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CHANGE EVENTUALLY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
ADVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW              
IN ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KSBN               
OVERNIGHT AS A START. NO MENTION AT ALL FOR KFWA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN            
FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT TO                 
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT SAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW WITH                  
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO MESOSCALE                     
EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. EXPANSIVE                  
DEBRIS CLOUD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS OVERCAST AT 14Z...EXCEPT FOR THE               
FAR SW AND SE CORNERS OF THE CWA. MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM               
WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT AREAL EXTENT OF                 
CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL                
TRENDS. WILL WORD ZFP AS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. IF CLOUDS REMAIN              
THICK ENOUGH THEY WILL RETARD SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL STAY                
WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND BANK ON                     
THINNING/DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.                                
LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NW STILL LOOKS GOOD.             
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM                   
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. STORMS BEING                 
DRIVEN BY MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS LLJ CONTINUES             
TO VEER DIURNALLY TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. 12Z PROXIMITY RAOB              
SOUNDINGS AND SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A LARGE THETA-E                
MINIMUM DOMINATING THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT            
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...HOWEVER 06Z NAM                    
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HIGHER THETA-E PLUME OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.                 
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
OVERNIGHT THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN CRANKING IT OUT BUT THE             
ONLY EFFECTS OUR CWA HAS FELT FROM IT HAVE BEEN HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS               
CLOUDS. THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH WILL NOT MOVE              
MUCH TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF             
THE U.S. GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL KEEP OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR                 
TODAY AND WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 19 TO 20 DEGREES                
CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE            
MIDDLE 80S. THE NAM/WRF HAS NOT WAVERED WITH THE POSITION OF THE                
TROUGH/FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND THE GFS HAS SEEMED TO BACK OFF WITH            
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF. HAVE             
TRIMMED BACK THE LOW CHANCE POPS A TAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE                
WEST/NORTHWEST BUT WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO BE CLOSE              
TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA...DECIDED TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH              
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL A LOW POP CHANCE WHICH IS SAYING A                  
GREATER CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE DRY. THESE ARE JUST MODELS AFTER ALL             
AND THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT COULD STILL BE CLOSER               
THAN WHAT THEY ARE SAYING. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT                
WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...OVERSPREADING THE CHANCE               
FOR RAIN TO THE REST OF THE CWA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT EXISTS JUST TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST.                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAP TO BE OVER THE CWA TODAY LIMITING             
OUR CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST POTENTIAL LIKE                     
MENTIONED IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE             
TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE               
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SUCH                    
INSTABILITY CLOSE BY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                        
BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY AS POTENT SRN CANADA SHORTWAVE            
ENERGY DROPS ESE INTO GREAT LAKES. SOME QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO                
FRONTAL TIMING WITH NAM OUTLIER IN SCOURING FRONT THROUGH MUCH                  
FASTER. PREFERENCE LIES TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. FRONT               
SHOULD SLOW WITH SURFACE WAVE REFLECTION ALONG FRONT IN SOUTHERN                
PLAINS LIKELY GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET PRESENCE FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK                   
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY            
MIDDAY AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES 2000-2500            
J/KG AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLS AHEAD OF FRONT. 0-6KM BULK LAYER                
SHEAR 25-30 KTS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MINOR SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL. CONCERN WITH POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NRN             
CWA WITH LATEST GFS TAKING FRONT SOUTH OF CWA TO NEAR OHIO RIVER AND            
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH DRIER                    
AIRMASS. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO AND DEFER TO LATER             
RUNS AS STILL SOME CONCERN WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                     
SHORT TERM...LOTHAMER                                                           
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SAT.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RDG OVER NRN            
ONTARIO...A TROF OVER MANITOBA AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO                
LEAVING WRLY FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE              
SFC(18Z)...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA WITH A WARM FRONT                    
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH SRN WI INTO SRN LWR MI. AN INVERTED                  
TROF ALSO EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW...THROUGH WRN WI INTO NE MN.              
THE SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED PCPN OVER UPR MI THIS MORNING HAD EXITED              
TOWARD ERN LK SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM NRN BRANCH SHRTWVS WERE LOCATED                
OVER SW MANITOBA AND INTO WRN SASK. OTHER SHRTWVS WERE MOVING NE OUT            
OF THE ROCKIES INTO NE WY AND THROUGH WRN NEB. WV IMAGERY ALSO                  
INDICATED PROMINENT DRYING OVER NRN WI AND UPR MI. WITH THINNING                
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE PROFILE AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LVL ISENTROPIC            
LIFT...PCPN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME PATCHY -RA/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY               
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE SE FLOW.                                       
TONIGHT INTO SAT...CONTINUING 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT (925-850 MB)            
E OF THE TROF AXIS AND N OF THE WARM FRONT...PER 12Z NAM...TO                   
SUPPORT SOME ONCL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE              
WHERE UPSLOPE ERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WITH THE SASK SHRTWV HELPING TO               
PUSH THE MID LVL TROF OVER MANITOBA TO THE EAST...EFFECTS OF SHRTWV             
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF UPR               
MI. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWVS WILL BE MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO UPR                      
MI(ESPECIALLY THE SE) SO THAT WITH WITH 12Z NAM MUCAPE IN THE                   
100-300 J/KG RANGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT            
SHOWERS. WITH ONLY RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NO TSTMS              
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP...BUT PERSISTENT 925-700              
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY A STRATUS DECK GOING AND SHOULD KEEP FOG            
FROM BECOMING TOO THICK. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z NAM 295K-300K                 
ISENTROPIC FCST AND 925 RH AND WINDS WERE USED TO TIME THE END OF               
THE PCPN AND PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE SFC-925 TROF MOVE WEST TO EAST             
THROUGH THE CWA BTWN 09Z-21Z. PERSISTENT LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP               
TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.                           
SAT NIGHT...700-500 QVECTOR DIV AND DRY ADVECTION TAKE OVER AND SFC             
RDG WILL BUILD INTO UPR MI AS THE MID LVL TROF AXIS DEPARTS. NW                 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL EVEN AS             
TEMPS FALL AOB 50F INLAND. SUN...ACYC NRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE             
SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA BENEATH CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.            
MON-FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST                
THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SLOWLY                    
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A TROF INTO THE WRN CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND             
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY FRI. THE DOWNSTREAM RDG WILL BUILD INTO THE            
THE WRN LAKES WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A                
WEAK SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
BY MON NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND                    
RELATIVELY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. THE             
12Z GFS ALSO HINTS AT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD INLAND SHRA/TSRA                     
TUE...BUT ALSO SEEMS THAT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND RESULTING CAPE IS            
A BIT OVERDONE. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE HIGHER GFS AND LOWER ECMWF 850            
MB AROUND (15C) STILL SUGGEST TEMPS WOULD CLIMB AOA GUIDANCE AROUND             
80F BY THU/FRI.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1250 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.AFTERNOON UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS                 
AFTERNOON DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM             
THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LOWER                 
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN UPPER. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.               
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006                        
UPDATE...14Z SURFACE/IR SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR/AND RUC ANALYSIS               
SHOWING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER                
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL IOWA. CLOSER TO HOME...LARGE SHIELD OF                    
RAIN...DRIVEN BY MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF 850MB LOW LEVEL                    
JET...CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND             
THE EASTERN UPPER. RAIN IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE INTO NORTHERN CHIPPEWA            
COUNTY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY                     
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT            
THIS RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE EAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN            
INTENSITY AS JET WEAKENS. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
DAY CENTER AROUND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG              
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.                            
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTH AS RAIN COOLED AIR             
HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. BEST INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN WARM SECTOR. GIVEN                        
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LATEST RUC                 
FORECAST...FEEL FRONT WILL NOT MAKE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING               
THE DAY. KINEMATICS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES             
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY GREATER THAN 350 M2/S2.                   
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH FRONT SO FAR SOUTH             
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH A WORST               
CASE SCENARIO HIGH OF 74 AND DEWPOINT OF 63 DOES YIELD ML CAPE OF               
OVER 1000J/KG. A MORE CONSERVATIVE TEMPERATURE OF 71 YIELDS CAPE ON             
ONLY ABOUT 200J/KG. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES DOES SHOW SOME CLEARING             
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY REACHING              
THE LOW 70S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLEARING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.               
GIVEN ABOVE MENTIONED WIND FIELDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH                       
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SEVERE WIND THREAT. PRESENCE OF SUBTLE                
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWARD                 
ADVECTION OF 850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AS FOR THE MARINE ISSUES...WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SCA AS STIFF 15 TO             
20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS FUNNEL ACROSS THE LAKES. AM EXPECTING WINDS              
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT                
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF IOWA LOW.                                             
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFRESHEN WORDING.                   
MSB                                                                             
DISCUSSION...FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE             
SOMEWHAT FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH GETS               
NUDGED FARTHER EAST...WHILE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY             
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF AK.  SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST                
AREA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES                  
PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.  SURFACE FRONT LYING            
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES             
REGION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING                   
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG MN/IA BORDER RIDES ALONG IT.  MAIN FORECAST                  
CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION IN WARM ADVECTION               
PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WELL AS              
FORECAST POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AS THAT WILL IMPACT ANY SEVERE               
WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY.                                                        
TODAY/TONIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION              
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING...FORMING                 
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING WI ALONG WITH RRQ FORCING FROM              
100+KT JET STREAK CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...AND              
IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF STALLED               
FRONT RUNNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN/WI/NORTHERN IL/IN/OH PER                   
MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS.  AXIS OF 1.50+ INCH PW VALUES ALSO POOLED            
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI/WI/              
MN...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES              
8+ C/KM) CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF.  BACK EDGE OF THIS RAIN                    
CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MID LEVEL                  
TROUGH AXIS...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR                
NORTHWEST WI.  MAIN SHOW IS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY                
WHERE STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/                    
NORTHEAST IA...WHERE OF COURSE THE GUIDANCE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE                
DOING SO HOT IN PICKING UP THE QPF THERE.  SO AS USUAL IN THESE                 
SITUATIONS TRYING TO FERRET DETAILS OUT OF THE MODELS IS PROBABLY A             
SOMEWHAT FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR...BUT INITIAL THINKING IS THAT LEADING              
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY               
CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING             
THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL LOWER                      
COUNTIES.  AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATE THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL                
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY            
IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND              
ALLOWING A BUBBLE OF RAIN-COOLED AIR TO BLUNT NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE             
BOUNDARY.  GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WILL BE                      
LIMITED...THOUGH WITH 700- 500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5C/KM                     
ANTICIPATED WON'T REQUIRE MUCH WARMING TO GENERATE SOME CAPE                    
(400-800 J/KG)...AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR MAY NOT REQUIRE A LARGE               
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.  0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF            
40-50KT COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITHIN              
WARM FRONTAL ZONE WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POTENTIAL                  
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS (IF BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT            
TOO STABLE).  SO POTENTIAL IS THERE...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF PERSISTENT            
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING MORE DETRIMENTAL OR INSTABILITY               
TOO MARGINAL (BRN BELOW 10...TOO MUCH SHEAR VERSUS INSTABILITY???).             
BEST THREAT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE STEEPER MID               
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                                            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WARM                 
ADVECTION PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD            
GREEN BAY.                                                                      
SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CREEP SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN...DRAGGING WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI.  EXPECT             
CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                      
FEATURE... PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.  WILL              
DRAG RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE LOW/COLD                 
FRONT NOT FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                       
MARINE...EASTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO            
SOUTHERN WI.  FAIRLY BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL (925MB WINDS                  
20-30KTS) SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN MOST                    
NEARSHORE ZONES...ENHANCED BY COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHEAST               
UPPER SHORELINE AND FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.  WILL            
RUN THIS THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                  
SATURDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE LAKE HURON                 
SIDE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PICK UP                 
AGAIN IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH 20KT LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST.              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
504 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE            
COLD FRONT OVER NRN MO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS DEFINED WITH               
WARM SECTOR WINDS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. CLOUD STRUCTURE IN THE VICINITY              
OF THE DECAYING BOUNDARY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM IN                  
NATURE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED               
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER. LATEST RUC 2 PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW THE            
REASON FOR THIS...DEPICTING AN IMPRESSIVE 750MB CAPPING INVERSION               
WITH TEMPS AROUND 18C. THIS CAP WAS NOT AT ALL HANDLED BY 12Z/18Z               
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH SERIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS                     
CONTINUING TO HAMPER BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS.                                  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS ARCING BOUNDARY...AN AXIS OF ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY (DENOTED BY WIDESPREAD ACCAS AND EMBEDDED                           
SHOWERS/STORMS) PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL MO...TO NEAR                
WICHITA...TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS AREA ALSO REMAINS WITHIN A               
BROAD MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION REGIME... AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS            
FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS               
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO TAP POTENTIAL                     
INSTABILITY ABOVE 750MB. ADDITIONAL VERTICAL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY                
COME FROM AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT IS PRESENTLY PROVIDING            
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS.                                          
THEREFORE...I DO EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS                    
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. STEEP                     
750-600MB LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR MARGINAL HAIL                
EARLY...BUT WEAK BULK SHEAR AND OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD                 
PREDOMINANTLY RESULT IN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. NARROW CAPE                        
PROFILES...CONTINUED WARM/MOIST LLJ INFLUX INTO AN QUASI-STATIONARY             
BOUNDARY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING TWO INCHES CERTAINLY             
FAVOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.                                                  
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006/                                             
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE               
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                            
MODELS SIMILAR IN THE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER                
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN. THE INTERACTION OF THIS                 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED BOUNDARIES            
ARE THE KEY PLAYERS.                                                            
LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SHORT TERM RUC INDICATE A                
SHORTWAVE IN ERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IMAGERY DOES NOT LOOK AS                   
IMPRESSIVE AS THE MODELS DEPICT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN            
EXTREME SWRN NM. THIS WAVE IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AND COULD              
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
OVERALL...PREFER THE WRF OVER THE GFS AS THE GFS HAS SERIOUS                    
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL             
MASS FIELDS.  ALTHOUGH THE WRF HAS SOME ISSUES...IT DOES DEPICT A               
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL SCENARIO OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE HEAVIEST                       
PRECIPITATION IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE. ISENTROPIC            
LIFT WITHIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING                    
MECHANISM WITH WEAK H3 DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPLEMENTING THE              
UVV PERIODICALLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                        
IN THE NEAR TERM...A COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR A STJ TO               
LAMONIA LINE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY SOUTH TO            
NEAR A MCI TO IRK LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A MOIST AND VERY                  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...NORTH              
OF I-70. ESTIMATED CAPES ARE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WITH ONLY A FEW                
MORE DEGREES NEEDED TO BREAK THE CAP. A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS            
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE KC METRO...BUT EXPECT THE              
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFT 21Z AND                
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE               
SHEAR IS WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AFTN ACCAS...DEPICT               
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...FCST SOUNDINGS              
SUGGEST A DRY LAYER FROM H8 TO 550 MB. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL AND             
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.                                                    
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO POST FRONTAL                    
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT              
ON THE 310K SURFACE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT                      
EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE             
70...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES.                         
THE CDFNT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SRN MO ON SATURDAY WITH               
WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 305-310 CONTINUING THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE             
SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE BREAKS IN THE              
RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH              
TO DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT.                                         
AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL                      
OCCUR...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES WILL BE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY             
EVENING WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE WEAKEST.                                    
THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY THE END            
OF THE WEEKEND...MOST AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 36 WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES            
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA             
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF RAIN. WILL ISSUE AND ESF FOR THE POTENTIAL OF               
LOCALIZED FLOODING. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE                  
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT              
THIS TIME...AS FUTURE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS ARE CRITICAL.                          
DB                                                                              
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF HOLDING AT LEAST A                
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF MISSOURI              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO                
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.            
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THAT WILL             
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND MAY BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER               
RIDGE...AND SLOWLY MEANDER EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR            
NOW...HAVE EXTENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE               
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH THE                 
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH A            
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH                       
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WARMING              
TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS THIS EVENING FROM             
20Z TO 02Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR. ADDITIONAL                   
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFT 06Z FOLLOWED BY             
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN AN AREA OF RAIN AFT 11Z. CONFIDENCE IS               
NOT HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE IFR CONDITIONS AS IT IS DEPENDENT UPON             
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES ALONG WITH THE INTENSITY AND                 
COVERAGE OF THE RAIN.                                                           
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE               
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                            
MODELS SIMILAR IN THE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER                
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN. THE INTERACTION OF THIS                 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED BOUNDARIES            
ARE THE KEY PLAYERS.                                                            
LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SHORT TERM RUC INDICATE A                
SHORTWAVE IN ERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IMAGERY DOES NOT LOOK AS                   
IMPRESSIVE AS THE MODELS DEPICT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN            
EXTREME SWRN NM. THIS WAVE IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AND COULD              
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
OVERALL...PREFER THE WRF OVER THE GFS AS THE GFS HAS SERIOUS                    
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL             
MASS FIELDS.  ALTHOUGH THE WRF HAS SOME ISSUES...IT DOES DEPICT A               
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL SCENARIO OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE HEAVIEST                       
PRECIPITATION IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE. ISENTROPIC            
LIFT WITHIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING                    
MECHANISM WITH WEAK H3 DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPLEMENTING THE              
UVV PERIODICALLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                        
IN THE NEAR TERM...A COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR A STJ TO               
LAMONIA LINE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY SOUTH TO            
NEAR A MCI TO IRK LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A MOIST AND VERY                  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...NORTH              
OF I-70. ESTIMATED CAPES ARE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WITH ONLY A FEW                
MORE DEGREES NEEDED TO BREAK THE CAP. A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS            
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE KC METRO...BUT EXPECT THE              
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFT 21Z AND                
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE               
SHEAR IS WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AFTN ACCAS...DEPICT               
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...FCST SOUNDINGS              
SUGGEST A DRY LAYER FROM H8 TO 550 MB. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL AND             
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.                                                    
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO POST FRONTAL                    
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT              
ON THE 310K SURFACE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT                      
EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE             
70...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES.                         
THE CDFNT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SRN MO ON SATURDAY WITH               
WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 305-310 CONTINUING THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE             
SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL UNDOUBTLY BE BREAKS IN THE                
RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH              
TO DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT.                                         
AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL                      
OCCUR...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES WILL BE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY             
EVENING WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE WEAKEST.                                    
THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY THE END            
OF THE WEEKEND...MOST AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 36 WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES            
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA             
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF RAIN. WILL ISSUE AND ESF FOR THE POTENTIAL OF               
LOCALIZED FLOODING. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE                  
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT              
THIS TIME...AS FUTURE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS ARE CRITICAL.                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS THIS EVENING FROM             
20Z TO 02Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR. ADDITIONAL                   
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFT 06Z FOLLOWED BY             
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN AN AREA OF RAIN AFT 11Z. CONFIDENCE IS               
NOT HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE IFR CONDITIONS AS IT IS DEPENDENT UPON             
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES ALONG WITH THE INTENSITY AND                 
COVERAGE OF THE RAIN.                                                           
DB                                                                              
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF HOLDING AT LEAST A                
PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF MISSOURI              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO                
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.            
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THAT WILL             
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND MAY BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER               
RIDGE...AND SLOWLY MEANDER EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR            
NOW...HAVE EXTENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE               
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH THE                 
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH A            
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH                       
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WARMING              
TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
328 AM...                                                                       
A POTENTIAL WET PATTERN IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY             
THIS MORNING. A FLATTENED RIDGE HOLDS SWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH AS SHARPLY POINTED TROUGH SCOOTS EAST ALONG            
THE CANADIAN BORDER. FARTHER WEST A LARGER SHORTWAVES FEATURE IS                
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TAKE IT TIME                 
MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS AS THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL              
JUST ABOUT CUT IT OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE               
SURFACE A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS THE REFLECTION OF THE CANADIAN                  
BORDER SHORTWAVE...IS DRAPED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST THROUGH                
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE DEW POINTS POOLED IN THE LOW             
70S SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.               
EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS              
EASTERN KANSAS ON ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LAYERS FROM AT LEAST 305K              
TO 310K. ALSO LENDING A HELPING HAND TO THE STORMS IS A WEAK UPPER              
LEVEL WAVE RESOLVED ON THE VORTICITY FIELD FROM 400MB TO 300MB ON               
BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS. THIS SMALL WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION            
TO POP UP ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A RESULT.                
00Z/26 UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA AND SPRINGFIELD SHOWED A                 
FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER....BUT MID LEVEL LAYERS AROUND 800MB TO               
700MB INDICATE A NICE MOIST PLUME ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS STARTED OUT             
FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AS THE LOW              
LEVEL JET FOCUSES ON WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING            
HOURS.                                                                          
ALSO AT PLAY IS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON OMAHA'S RADAR THIS                   
MORNING. NAM-WRF HAS THIS HANDLED BY PAINTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP                 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME                        
PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS KIND OF SLOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE TIMING OF THE            
BOUNDARY. STILL...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO EASTERN KANSAS AND                  
WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH 15Z AS A RESULT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS                 
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS            
FOUND. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS                    
FORECAST BASED ON TRENDS.                                                       
THE GENERAL PICTURE FOR THIS TODAY HAS THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA MOVING             
INTO THE NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS THEN START TO                 
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THE FRONT WILL PENETRATE.             
NAM-WRF HANGS THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHILE THE GFS MOVES             
IT TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN EDGE. BOTH MODELS ARE SUSPECT DUE TO THE                 
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. STILL...THE PREVAILING IDEA THAT THE             
FRONT WILL BE IN THE CWA WITH LOW 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS IS A VALID               
ONE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AFTERNOON POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE              
TO CLOUD COVER AND DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNINGS ACTIVITY.                 
FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY AND                
LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...I HAVE PAINTED LIKELY POPS                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL            
FOCUS AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI INITIATING               
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASING               
PVA AS ANOTHER SMALL WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD              
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE               
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE              
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES AS               
THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES FARTHER SOUTH.                                        
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENTER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM-WRF INDICATE THAT THE            
TROUGH WILL BE PENNING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS               
REASONABLE AS THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS              
THE GREAT LAKES AS IT MOVES EAST. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR            
SUNDAY DAY...AND EVEN EXPANDED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FOR THE              
NIGHTTIME HOURS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.                  
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ONE AND HALF TO TWO                 
INCHES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THOUGHTS AT               
THIS TIME IS THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN SEVERAL ROUNDS IN              
DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AS THE ACTUAL AND EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES GET                  
PUSHED AROUND BY THE STORMS SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY. THIS            
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                    
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS FOR CLOUDCOVER AND TEMP TRENDS.                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGHER RH WITH NE FLOW PRODUCING SOME STRATOCU FOR PARTS OF ERN                 
NEB AND WRN IA. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLDS ARE            
FCST TO MIX OUT BY THE NAM/RUC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                            
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING FM THE WEST WITH                  
SOME SPRINKLES FM CNTRL TO NRN NEB. EXPECT THESE CLDS TO HOLD BACK              
TEMPS IN THE 70S. SFC FNT IS TO THE S OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER                
LEFT SML POPS IN SE WHERE LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND HEATING INTO               
THE UPR 80S MAY PRODUCE SOME TSRA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.                 
CONVECTIVE CAP WAS BROKEN AS CDFNT PASSED SOUTH OF OMA AND LNK.                 
EXPECT FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS TO BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN NEB EARLY            
THIS MORNING.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN               
AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND               
BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT LEAST TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS.             
DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESTRICT NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP...AND                  
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN S OF INTERSTATE 80 AND QUITE POSSIBLE RIGHT                 
ALONG KS BORDER.                                                                
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WAVE                
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW.  AGREE WITH NATIONAL                   
DISCUSSION THAT NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE SYSTEM.  GFS                    
SOLUTION OF AN OPENING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS MORE                   
REASONABLE AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.                 
DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR                 
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...IN ADDITION TO A LACK OF ANY SURFACE               
BASED INSTABILITY.  00Z GFS SEEMED TO BE RESPONDING REASONABLY WITH             
PRECIP AREA DECREASING IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVED EAST ACROSS            
THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING.  WITH A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM             
ALOFT...NAM DEVELOPED A BROADER AREA OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THE 06Z             
RUN.  AFTER DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORS...OPTED FOR FAIRLY LOW POPS               
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WHILE LEAVING MON DRY FOR NOW.                                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL                 
SIDE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME                     
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THICK AND PERSISTENT THE CLOUDS ARE.  DO             
NOT EXPECT STRATOCU NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO PERSIST             
FOR LONG.  OVERALL...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS AND LEFT EXTENDED              
FORECAST ALONE.                                                                 
POLLACK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne