FXUS61 KALY 100213 AAA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2004

DISC...UPDATE

UPDATE ON FIRST PERIOD TO DIMINISH WINDS...AS ALL BUT A FEW OBS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO ABT 7 KTS AND SEVERAL HAVE GONE CALM. EXPECT MOST WINDS
TO DIE DOWN TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH. AS A RESULT HAVE BROADENED THE 
RANGE OF LOW TEMPS...AS MAY GET WARMER LOWS NEAR BODIES OF WATER
AND COLDER LOWS IN VALLEYS.

**********  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS *****************************

.DISC..DESPITE WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE...WE ARE EXPERIENCING AN 
INCREDIBLY COLD DAY. OUR OFFICIAL HIGH (THUS FAR) OF JUST 2...MAKES 
THIS THE COLDEST MAX SINCE JAN 14, 1999. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THE LOW 
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT QUITE OVER YET. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS 
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS (1000-850 MB) VALUES WERE ABOUT 1195 HEXAMETERS 
CURRENTLY...AND PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT 1190 BY 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER 
THAT...THEY WILL VERY SLOWLY REBOUND TO ABOUT 1210 DURING THE DAY 
SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY...WE HAVE ENDURED OUR COLDEST DAY. TONIGHT WILL 
BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT...OR CERTAINLY QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN LAST 
NIGHT. IN FACT...DESPITE HOLDING ONTO A LIGHT BREEZE...WE HAVE A 
SHOT AT OUR RECORD LOW OF MINUS 13 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1968 AND WILL 
LIKELY MAKE THIS THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE AT LEAST JAN 6, 1996.  

TOMORROW...WE MIGHT HAVE A SHOT AT A RECORD LOW MAX IS CURRENTLY 5 
DEGREES ALSO SET IN 1968. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER 
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO 
COMMENCE. AT THE SAME TIME...ANY WIND SHOULD COMPLETELY BECOME 
CALM. THE BIG ?? IS HOW QUICKLY ANY CIRRUS OR ANY OTHER WARM AIR 
ADVECTION CLOUDS ROLL IN. THE MODELS HINT THAT SOME WILL. 
HOWEVER...IF OUR SKY REMAINS CLEAR...OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE EVEN 
COLDER! FOR NOW...WENT CLOSE TO THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR FIRST THREE 
PERIODS. THIS INCLUDES THE NGM MOS (FWC) FOR TONIGHT...THE GFS MOS 
(MAV) FOR SATURDAY...AND FWC AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHILE WE WILL REACH "MARGINAL THRESHOLDS" FOR A WIND CHILL 
ADVISORY...WE AGAIN FELT IT BETTER TO ISSUE A SPS HANDLING THE 
EXTREME COLD.  

WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN UP FAIRLY QUICKLY ON 
SUNDAY. WE ACTUALLY HAVE BUCKED GUIDANCE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES LOWER 
THAN ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL 
TRANSLATE "OVER THE TOP" OF US FIRST. THE GFS AND ETA INDICATE OUR 
BEST SHOT OF 850 POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION (WHICH WORKED WELL 
DURING OUR LAST WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW EVENT OF LAST WEEK) TAKES 
PLACE LATE SUNDAY (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY NIGHT). THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED ON THE ETA. HOWEVER...WITH THE STILL COLD 
AIR MASS IN PLACE...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 
SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED A 30 POP EVERYWHERE (EXCEPT 50 OVER THE 
ADIRONDACKS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE IS MORE 
PLENTIFUL...BUT THE FORCING LOOKS (IF ANYTHING) WEAKER. WILL GO WITH 
LIKELY MAV GUIDANCE BUT CALL IT VERY LIGHT SNOW AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE 
FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS OUR REGION.

.EXTENDED...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW ONLY EARLY ON MONDAY. OUR 
BRIEF "WARMUP" WILL BEGIN TO END AS THE FIRST POLAR COLD FRONT 
CROSSES THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THEN...THE NEXT ARCTIC 
INVASION...WILL HURL ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL PRODUCING COLD 
FRONT OUR WAY TUESDAY. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN LATER 
DURING THE WORKWEEK. ANOTHER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO 
MAINLY MISS US AGAIN...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND THEREFORE HAVE 
LEFT MINIMAL POPS FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY. 

.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS. ICE FORMATION WILL CONTINUE.


.ALY...SPS CONCERNING THE UNSEASONABLE COLD. 

$$

HWJIV