AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
1106 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THIS                        
MORNING...TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATED THE POPS                
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
AFTER RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER YESTERDAY...TODAY PROMISES TO BE DRIER              
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM DOLLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT            
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM               
THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING                
THROUGH CENTRAL UT ATTM JUDGING FROM WV PICS AND RUC UPPER AIR                  
ANALYSIS.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH LESS PREVALENT TODAY WHICH            
SHOULD LIMIT TSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.  HAVE DECREASED POPS                 
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID 50S ALONG            
THE CO/KS BORDER TO AROUND 40 FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THERE               
WILL BE SOME WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED              
POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LOW GRADE SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE                  
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO HELP                   
INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER IF GFS QPF SOLN IS                        
CORRECT...THIS COULD BE OVERDONE.  DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A               
CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS/ADJACENT LOWER            
EASTERN SLOPES...THOUGH CAPE IS CERTAINLY A LOT LESS...AND CONFINED             
TO A S51OW LAYER BELOW H4. IF SFC DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE MID 30S              
OR LOWER ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN MAY SEE JUST MODERATE            
CU AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  SINCE PRECIP WATERS DROP TO .5 INCHES              
OR LESS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A LITTLE OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY. ANY                      
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.  WITH DRIER AIR                 
WORKING IN COULD SEE SOME COOL MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE POORLY DRAINING             
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN DRIER AIR MASS             
TAKES PLACE.  -KT                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA WED THROUGH MON. IT LOOKS              
GENERALLY DRY OVR THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                     
DECREASING FOR WED THROUGH FRI GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCH. HOWEVER               
CHANCES ARE WE WL STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP OVR THE                  
MTS. TEMPS THESE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS OVR THE                   
SERN PLAINS IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BEGINNING SAT LOW LEVEL S TO              
SE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR TO THE               
SERN PLAINS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1                
INCH...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY MON. FOR SAT THE GFS               
SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND HAS IT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTS AS DOES                 
THE ECMWF. THEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY                
MOVE ACRS THE AREA LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN.                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.  VFR TO MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND                  
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHT RAINFALL.  WINDS WILL STAY                         
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE LIGHT             
DRAINAGE WINDS SET UP OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS              
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  -KT         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/21                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
432 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
AFTER RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER YESTERDAY...TODAY PROMISES TO BE DRIER              
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM DOLLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT            
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM               
THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING                
THROUGH CENTRAL UT ATTM JUDGING FROM WV PICS AND RUC UPPER AIR                  
ANALYSIS.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH LESS PREVALENT TODAY WHICH            
SHOULD LIMIT TSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.  HAVE DECREASED POPS                 
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID 50S ALONG            
THE CO/KS BORDER TO AROUND 40 FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THERE               
WILL BE SOME WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED              
POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LOW GRADE SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE                  
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO HELP                   
INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER IF GFS QPF SOLN IS                        
CORRECT...THIS COULD BE OVERDONE.  DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A               
CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS/ADJACENT LOWER            
EASTERN SLOPES...THOUGH CAPE IS CERTAINLY A LOT LESS...AND CONFINED             
TO A SHALLOW LAYER BELOW H4. IF SFC DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE MID 30S            
OR LOWER ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN MAY SEE JUST MODERATE            
CU AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  SINCE PRECIP WATERS DROP TO .5 INCHES              
OR LESS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A LITTLE OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY. ANY                      
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.  WITH DRIER AIR                 
WORKING IN COULD SEE SOME COOL MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE POORLY DRAINING             
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN DRIER AIR MASS             
TAKES PLACE.  -KT                                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA WED THROUGH MON. IT LOOKS              
GENERALLY DRY OVR THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                     
DECREASING FOR WED THROUGH FRI GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCH. HOWEVER               
CHANCES ARE WE WL STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP OVR THE                  
MTS. TEMPS THESE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS OVR THE                   
SERN PLAINS IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BEGINNING SAT LOW LEVEL S TO              
SE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR TO THE               
SERN PLAINS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1                
INCH...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY MON. FOR SAT THE GFS               
SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND HAS IT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTS AS DOES                 
THE ECMWF. THEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY                
MOVE ACRS THE AREA LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.  VFR TO MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND                  
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHT RAINFALL.  WINDS WILL STAY                         
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE LIGHT             
DRAINAGE WINDS SET UP OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS              
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  -KT         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
911 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPDATED TO REFLECT EVENING PRECIPITATION TRENDS. ALSO ADDED HEAVY               
RAIN WORDING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.  FINALLY...ADJUSTED                   
SHORT TERM TRENDS ON TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...ETC.                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2008...CORRECTED/             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST IS IN DETERMINING THE                  
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INCOMING VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE...THE                   
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DOLLY AND THE SPEED OF AN INCOMING BOUNDARY.              
THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO 60S ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR                 
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE              
MOUNTAINS AND THE OUTER SAN LUIS VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL LINGER               
AND STRETCHING THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.              
THE NAM AND RUC BOTH HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT                   
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE                    
SYNOPTIC MOTION LOOKS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LEFT               
BEHIND BY DOLLY. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS                 
AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THEM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.              
IN COORDINATION EFFORTS I HAVE BROUGHT UP POPS ALONG THE EASTERN                
COLORADO BORDER LATE TONIGHT.                                                   
TOMORROW...THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT OFFER NEAR THE AMOUNT               
OF DYNAMICS AS TODAY...SO TOMORROWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE                 
CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CORRESPONDING UPSLOPE                 
REGIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DRIFT ALONG THE PALMER                     
DIVIDE. JMC                                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                  
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED               
FORECAST PERIODS...SO WILL GROUP THEM ALL TOGETHER. THE UPPER RIDGE             
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE             
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE                 
STATE SAT AM...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TX AND OLD MEXICO             
TO FINALLY GET DRAWN UP INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS WOULD                   
ENHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UP UNTIL SAT               
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HOLD MUCH PROMISE FOR SIGNIFICANT                    
BENEFICIAL PCPN UNFORTUNATELY. PAST PERFORMANCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE              
NAM IS OVERDOING THE QPF...WHILE GFS NORMALLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY.             
TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO ROUGHLY EQUATES TO ISOLATED TO                     
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SLOWLY MAKING            
IT ONTO THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. ANY PCPN THAT               
DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.                   
AS FOR TEMPS...700 AND 850 MB CHARTS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE                
UNTIL MON. H7 TEMPS OF 20-22 C...AND 850 MB TEMPS AT 32-36 C...POINT            
TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH VERY MILD NIGHTS.                
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW             
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT IN THE              
MTS. 27                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH EASTERN                        
COLORADO TODAY ARE THE MAJOR THREAT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE                
MOUNTAINS AND WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EVENING CONTINUES.            
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE                    
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY                
6Z.-JMC                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50/23                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
306 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2008...CORRECTED                                          
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST IS IN DETERMINING THE                  
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INCOMING VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE...THE                   
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DOLLY AND THE SPEED OF AN INCOMING BOUNDARY.              
THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO 60S ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR                 
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE              
MOUNTAINS AND THE OUTER SAN LUIS VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL LINGER               
AND STRETCHING THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.              
THE NAM AND RUC BOTH HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT                   
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE                    
SYNOPTIC MOTION LOOKS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LEFT               
BEHIND BY DOLLY. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS                 
AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THEM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.              
IN COORDINATION EFFORTS I HAVE BROUGHT UP POPS ALONG THE EASTERN                
COLORADO BORDER LATE TONIGHT.                                                   
TOMORROW...THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT OFFER NEAR THE AMOUNT               
OF DYNAMICS AS TODAY...SO TOMORROWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE                 
CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CORRESPONDING UPSLOPE                 
REGIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DRIFT ALONG THE PALMER                     
DIVIDE. JMC                                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                  
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED               
FORECAST PERIODS...SO WILL GROUP THEM ALL TOGETHER. THE UPPER RIDGE             
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE             
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE                 
STATE SAT AM...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TX AND OLD MEXICO             
TO FINALLY GET DRAWN UP INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS WOULD                   
ENHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UP UNTIL SAT               
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HOLD MUCH PROMISE FOR SIGNIFICANT                    
BENEFICIAL PCPN UNFORTUNATELY. PAST PERFORMANCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE              
NAM IS OVERDOING THE QPF...WHILE GFS NORMALLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY.             
TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO ROUGHLY EQUATES TO ISOLATED TO                     
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SLOWLY MAKING            
IT ONTO THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. ANY PCPN THAT               
DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.                   
AS FOR TEMPS...700 AND 850 MB CHARTS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CHANGE                
UNTIL MON. H7 TEMPS OF 20-22 C...AND 850 MB TEMPS AT 32-36 C...POINT            
TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH VERY MILD NIGHTS.                
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW             
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT IN THE              
MTS. MOORE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH EASTERN                        
COLORADO TODAY ARE THE MAJOR THREAT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE                
MOUNTAINS AND WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EVENING CONTINUES.            
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE                    
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY                
6Z.-JMC                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
938 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS IN THE EAST TO                 
BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO              
TEMP/DP OR WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND POPS.                      
COMPLICATED PATTERN TODAY WITH CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS             
OF DOLLY MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF EASTERN CO INTO WRN KS THIS AM.  HARD TO          
SEE ANY CIRCULATION CENTERS ALOFT ASSOC WITH DOLLY IN WV PICS THOUGH            
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CIRC CENTER IN H5 WIND FIELD BETWEEN               
KLAA AND KGCK.  SFC LOW IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE               
STATE BETWEEN KSPD AND KLAA...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER 60 DEW              
POINTS FUNNELING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER. AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOWER-MID 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SE             
CORNER OF THE STATE.  MEANWHILE OUT WEST...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING              
INTO WRN CO WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF            
THE STATE FOR THIS HOUR.                                                        
FOR TODAY...CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.               
REMNANTS OF DOLLY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY AS SHORTWAVE OUT               
WEST MOVES IN.  STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS THE               
PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.          
PRECIP H20S RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5+ INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH UP             
TO .75 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  NAM/GFS BREAK OUT ANOTHER ROUND            
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER THIS MORNING ALONG              
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SFC LOW.  FROM WV LOOPS THERE COULD BE                  
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING INTO THE SE            
CORNER OF THE STATE FROM REMNANTS OF DOLLY.  REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS             
HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES               
AND WRN KS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.  JUDGING FROM                           
TRAJECTORIES...THESE MAY END UP STAYING OFF TO THE EAST...AND TO                
MAKE MATTERS MORE DIFFICULT...LATEST RUC13...00Z ECMWF AND 4KM                  
NMM-WRF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AXIS FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN SUBSIDENT REGION ON               
BACK SIDE OF DOLLY UNTIL SHORTWAVE OUT WEST MOVES IN LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS IS A C51ENGING DILEMMA.  HAVE BUMPED UP                
POPS AFTER 15Z TO MATCH UP WITH CONSENSUS OF NEIGHBORING WFOS AND               
HPC QPF. GIVEN POSITION OF SFC LOW...THIS SCENARIO DOES LOOK                    
PLAUSIBLE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO WRN                  
CO...SO THINK COVERAGE SHOULD RAMP UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY                  
AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALLOWS                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN                  
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EVENING AS              
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.  MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL              
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LIGHTNING.                
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL (GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER)            
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE GREATEST               
THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM                
KLHX TO KIM.  HAVE ADDED SOME TRW+ IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR                  
THIS.  AGAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE...FFG VALUES ARE STILL                 
FAIRLY HIGH. SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE VERY                       
LOCALIZED.  STORM MOTIONS ALSO LOOK A LITTLE FASTER TODAY AS WELL.              
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE                  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING PAST                 
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION. -KT               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
..ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY...                                             
..POSSIBLY DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...                        
TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HARD TO                  
FIND OUT WHICH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON                 
CONVECTION AND IT COULD POSSIBLY BE THE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN UT                   
RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT MIGHT BE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOUGH CALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS AND NAM-               
WRF QPF SCHEMES ARE NIGHT-AND-DAY. THE GFS HAS NO QPF ACROSS CO                 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM-WRF NEARLY HAS THE EASTERN 1/2                
OF CO COVERED IN QPF. LATELY...THE NAM-WRF HAS BEEN WAY OVERDONE                
WITH ITS COVERAGE AND QPF INTENSITY LEAVING IT SUSPECT. STILL                   
COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE                      
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY MIGRATING INTO THE NEARBY VALLEYS AND I-25               
CORRIDOR. I PLAYED THIS SCENARIO IN THE POP/WX GRIDS. ANY                       
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIURNAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE                 
CLIMO FOR LATE JULY.                                                            
WEDNESDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE MIDLEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER                 
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE RELATIVELY DEEP DRIER AIR MASS OVER CA               
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...THE GFS AND NAM-WRF               
ARE AT ODDS WITH QPF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL GIVE A LEANING                
NOD TO THE GFS...SINCE THE NAM-WRF HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF                   
LATELY. WILL LIKELY TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES GIVEN 500MB HEIGHT RISES. 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO               
+18C TO +21C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND               
100F LOOK DOABLE...STILL...AT PUB AND LHX...SO WILL CONTINUE. WITH              
SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES...IT IS ALWAYS TOUGH GETTING MEASURABLE                  
PRECIPITATION...SO STATISTICALLY THE ODDS ARE GREATER OF GETTING                
TRACE OR A DRY (RAIN GAGE) BUCKET.                                              
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENSEMBLE DATA INCLUDING THE ECMWF WANTS               
TO BUILD THE LARGE HOT-HIGH CENTER OVER CO WITH THE DGEX KEEPING                
IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                  
S51OW VERY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES THROUGH EASTERN                    
CO...BUT IT SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...EXCEPT WIND SHIFT LINES AND              
POSSIBLY TAKING A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE. FIRST                
POTENTIAL VERY S51OW "SURGE" COULD BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE                       
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS...HOWEVER...700MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN                
+18C TO +23C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND               
100F WILL POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT PUB...LHX...AND PORTIONS OF                      
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR               
4 RUNS NOW HAVING BEING PROMOTING 100-104F FROM PUB-LHX-LAA FOR                 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. CONCEPTUALLY...VERY LOW GRADE                   
MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS...THUS              
REQUIRING LOW POPS/WX. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MAINLY BE                
DIURNAL...IF THEY FORM AT ALL. TRYING TO GET SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS MIGHT BE EVEN                     
TOUGHER GIVEN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS WILL BE EVEN TOUGHER GIVEN THE                
THERMAL CAPPING INVERSION...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT GETS INTO                 
SOUTHEAST CO WOULD HAVE TO COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY                 
INITIATED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH I`VE SEEN OCCUR. EVEN                 
THE ECMWF...WHOS QPF ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE...DOESN`T HAVE                 
MUCH AND CONFINES MOST OF THE LIGHT QPF OVER ITS VERSION OF THE                 
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE LOW GRADE MOISTURE...THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY               
MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE CLOUD- FREE AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS                    
CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY              
EVENING HAVING THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER GIVEN MOIST                
CONVECTION. 17                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND               
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISO T ALREADY ONGOING               
ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE                
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG            
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z-09Z WITH CLEARING SKIES             
TOWARDS TUES MORNING. -KT                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
637 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STALLED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BRING A FEW             
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER           
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL            
LINGER INTO A PORTION OF WED...BUT AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM           
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE              
WED THROUGH THU.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...MODIFIED HOURLY                 
TEMPS WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER WARMUP THIS MORNING.            
ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                        
28/00Z GFS HAS ISSUES WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...PRIMARILY THROUGH 18Z          
TODAY. SO LARGELY IGNORED IT DURING THIS TIME. 28/00Z NAM LOOKS TO              
HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ANYWAY.                 
THE BIG QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BEST              
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF             
I-90 TODAY...SO PLACED HIGHEST RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN             
THIS AREA. DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD            
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO                  
NORTHERN CT AND SOUTHEAST MA THOUGH.                                            
CONVECTION DIES DOWN THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS            
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY            
WITH FAIR WEATHER.                                                              
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO             
TUESDAY. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER             
ELEVATION STATIONS LIKE WORCESTER TODAY...SO THIS BLEND LEANED MORE             
TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE TODAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE                 
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER.                             
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS               
PREVAIL.                                                                        
WEDNESDAY...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE MODELS                    
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM              
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE                
FEEDBACK ISSUES AS ITS SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE               
GREAT LAKES BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON. PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM SOLUTIONS            
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY. 21Z SREF SOLUTIONS             
APPEARED TO SUPPORT THIS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE               
POPS WESTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND            
OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TO DERIVE                    
HIGHS...AS 00Z MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED A BIT COOL. OTHERWISE MUCH OF              
THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND DRY.                                         
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS             
AS WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND ALONG AN              
OLD STALLED COLD FRONT. UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY                 
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE             
CLOUDS.                                                                         
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME LARGE DEVIATIONS OCCUR IN THE 500                  
MILLIBAR HEIGHT FIELDS IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF               
THE TROUGH AXIS. IN ADDITION THE TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORT                
WAVE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION THREAT.                   
GENERALLY RELIED ON AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WHICH WAS USED BY HPC AS WELL             
AS THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED ALL THREE DAYS              
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE A PORTION OF THE TIME. TEMPERATURES          
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR                
AFTER DAYBREAK. SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO                
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. VFR TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH                
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  VFR TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                     
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                       
TUE NIGHT...VFR.                                                                
WED...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT FROM               
WEST TO EAST.                                                                   
THU...MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A LOW RISK OF IFR BOS-PVD-HYA-ACK.           
FRI...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                 
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW             
SCA CRITERIA. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU                
NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG PATCHES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS                                                              
NEAR TERM...BELK/STRAUSS                                                        
SHORT TERM...BELK                                                               
LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                             
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS                                                         
MARINE...BELK/STRAUSS                                                           
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
140 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS                 
AND WEAKEN TODAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE                
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION               
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED            
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
OVERALL...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS MUCH QUIETER THAN EARLIER               
TODAY WITH SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND              
OVER NRN NY AND VT...AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST               
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER               
LOCATIONS NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THE UPSTREAM RADAR                    
COVERAGE. THE RUC40KM MODEL DOES SHOW A MID LEVEL VORT MAX TIED TO              
THIS SCT CONVECTION.  WE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE               
SRN TIER WITH ISOLD SHRAS THERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                                
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. IT              
LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARDS 1200                
UTC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING. OVERALL...THE                 
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT SFC DEWPTS SHOULD FALL                  
BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW MORNING.                                             
MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BY TRENDS AND THE 1800 UTC GMOS                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                            
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS OFF TO OUR EAST. SHORT WAVE MOVES                 
THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH. ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS              
OF HEATING AND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.                   
MINOR HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING                    
BUILDS IN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE               
LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.                
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS SHOULD EXPANDS EAST TO THE              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO               
DEVELOP THIS WEEK OVER EASTERN CANADA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO MVFR AT KGFL AND TO IFR                  
AT KALB AND KPOU DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH LOW CEILINGS                
AND THE VISIBILITY AT KALB WAS DOWN TO 2 MILES AS WELL. IN THE                  
MEANTIME A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING                     
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THEY WERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING               
AS THEY CONTINUED EAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH                    
OF AN IMPULSE LEFT TO STIR OUT SOME OF THE FOG AND STRATUS.                     
WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM OVER THE FORECAST                       
AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER                     
SUNRISE AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON...MOHAWK...AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS                
WITH SCT TO BKN CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5000 FT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR                 
CIGS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH SOME WIDELY              
SCT -SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE              
SW 8 TO 12 KTS.                                                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TONITE...VFR...POSSIBLY LCLLY MVFR DUE TO MIST.                                 
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA.                                               
FRI...VFR/MVFR...SCT SHRA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN MONDAY.               
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL OVER THE REGION MONDAY                
TRIGGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.             
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT               
AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH                  
55 TO 65 PERCENT ACROSS THE TERRAIN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A FEW RIVERS WERE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS SAT/SUN AND                       
SHOWED SHARP RISES...INCLUDING THE HEADWATERS OF THE SCHOHARIE                  
CREEK WHICH CAME UP 2 FT SAT NIGHT...AND THEN ANOTHER 2 FT FROM                 
A SECOND STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE HUDSON THE HOOSIC                  
AND BATTENKILL BOTH CAME UP MORE THAN 3 FT...WITH THE HUDSON                    
RIVER GETTING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD IN THE SCHUYLERVILLE                       
AND STILLWATER AREAS. THERE WAS ALSO A 2 FT RISE ON THE                         
HOUSATONIC. RIVERS WILL RECEDE TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDER                     
STORMS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE                      
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY COME WEDNESDAY INTO                     
THURSDAY...WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME                         
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR FROM CONVECTION. THIS STORM SHOULD                   
NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE RIVERS...BUT WITH CONVECTION IN THE                   
PICTURE...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS/PARKING AREAS COULD OCCUR.                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RCK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...IAA                                                                 
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11                                                           
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
314 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
311 PM CDT                                                                      
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF               
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. THE HIGH              
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY. THERE MAY SOME DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX FOR THOSE DAYS.                     
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS IS A                
WIND SHIFT LINE THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION                
FROM THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS               
TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A                        
CIRCULATION. THE VERTICAL MOTION FROM THIS THE ADJUSTMENT CAN BE                
INFERRED BY THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS THE VORTICITY                  
MAXIMUM MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THERE IS SOME                         
INSTABILITY AS THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND 6,977 FEET                
AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT 2 AM CDT. THE LIFTED                        
CONDENSATION LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1,858 FEET. THE                     
INSTABILITY IS RATHER DEEP. WE WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES               
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY BEFORE AND DURING WEDNESDAY                
MORNING. WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE              
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE USED                 
THE 12 UTC RUN OF LOCAL WRF MODEL AND 12 UTC RUN OF THE NAM                     
MODELS.                                                                         
FOR WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                  
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                          
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE                   
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                               
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR                    
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE GFS MODEL SHOW                
A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY. THIS LESSER               
DENSE AIR INDICATES VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECAST THE                
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS                
WILL GIVE HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR              
THIS FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1236 PM CDT                                                                     
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS IN SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION               
POTENTIAL AT TERMINALS NEXT 18 HOURS.                                           
RELATIVELY STRONG...FOR LATE JULY...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN              
RAOB/PROFILER/VAPOR DATA MOVING ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AREA OF                    
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
MORNING WITH BEST MID LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATING ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALSO                 
FOCUSED FROM NORTH CENTRAL WI TO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...                
WITH WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO             
TIGHTEN A BIT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. HIGHER RESOLUTION            
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING NAM/RUC AND LOCALLY RUN NAM ALL                   
SUGGEST CURRENT SOUTHEAST FLOW/LAKE BREEZE WILL BE OVERCOME BY                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING              
THROUGH ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY TRAILS ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS             
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE              
SUGGESTS MORE OF A BROAD PRESSURE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM            
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRUE FROPA APPEARS 14-16Z              
WITH WIND VEERING MORE NORTHWEST.                                               
WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...UPSTREAM MORNING RAOBS                 
INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800 HPA OR SO...THOUGH              
RECENT ACARS ASCENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD/KRFD DEPICT MORE STABLE                 
THERMAL PROFILES FARTHER TO THE EAST. RUC/LOCAL NAM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY HAVE A            
TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS TERMINALS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED             
A FEW RW/TRW THIS MORNING FROM IA/MO BORDER REGION INTO WESTERN IL              
IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGION ALONG AXIS OF WEAK 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL                
JET. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FROM              
SOUTHEAST IA TO NEAR KSTL...WITH 925-850 HPA THERMAL                            
GRADIENT/ELEVATED WARM FRONT FROM IA TO CENTRAL IL WHICH HAS LIKELY             
BEEN AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THOUGH THESE                   
FEATURES APPEAR TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME PER RUC/NAM                    
FORECASTS. THUS WHILE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY TO OCCUR             
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...               
LACK OF CLEAR LOW LEVEL FORCING/FOCUS YIELDS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR             
POINT FORECAST TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ELECTED HOWEVER TO              
MENTION A VCSH WITH CB CLOUD GROUP FOR KRFD DURING PEAK DIURNAL                 
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
FWC/MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR HAZE BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND              
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN LOWER 70S              
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.                                                        
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
303 PM CDT                                                                      
RELATIVELY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO FOR LATE JULY               
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT                  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
IN THE PROCESS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS               
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...AND SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE              
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                 
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN              
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO               
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT                       
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT QUICKLY DECREASING AS WEAK HIGH                   
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                       
THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE BY                          
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY SUNDAY                
AS ANOTHER LOW PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
320 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON INCREASING                       
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. THE REGION WILL SEE A RETURN               
OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING...AND IN SOME LOCATIONS...EXCEEDING 90              
DEGREES TODAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON               
UNDER A BROAD...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT MANY                 
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 90F TODAY...PARTICULARLY URBANIZED AREAS...AS              
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO IMPEDE               
INSOLATION. WHILE THE GFS BASED MOS PRODUCTS WANT TO BRING ORD/RFD UP           
TO 93F TODAY...THE NAM BASED GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER...ONLY IN THE               
MIDDLE 80S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS IN HOW                 
THEY HANDLE THEIR RESPECTIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THE NAM IS              
MOISTER...THUS RETARDING THE HEATING...WHILE THE GFS IS                         
DRIER...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS                
IN LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...FEEL THAT THE MOISTER NAM BASED GUIDANCE               
IS THE WAY TO GO AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE GOING                  
FORECAST. HAVE CARRIED THIS IDEA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...                   
GENERALLY RAISING TEMPS FOR THE GOING FORECAST...INCLUDING                      
WIDESPREAD LOW 90S FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH THE 00Z GFS                     
INDICATING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 23C...LOW 90S COULD EVEN BE                  
CONSERVATIVE. AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY...HAVE                   
DROPPED ANY MENTION OF POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE 18Z AND                  
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA FOR 18Z-00Z                    
PERIOD...REMOVING POPS FROM THE ERN SECTIONS...PARTICULARLY THE                 
NWRN INDIANA COUNTIES...THRU 00Z. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE SOME                  
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE ERN LOCATIONS...BUT A DEVELOPING WARM                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NWRN IL LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR TS DEVELOPMENT                 
OVER THE FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM               
HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY ON HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND THE                      
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN IL THIS                       
EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF                    
SWEEPING POPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO HIGHER              
END CHANCE AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A SPLIT IN THE MOST                   
INTENSE AND MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER              
THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY...OVER                
CNTRL AND SRN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE NRN STREAM MCS ACTIVITY WILL                 
LIKELY AFFECT WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE ADEQUATE           
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY THE POP FORECAST. TEMPS                
SHOULD MODERATE A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSES                 
SRN CANADA...TURNING UPPER FLOW MORE NWLY...BUT STRONG RIDGING                  
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR               
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                    
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1236 PM CDT                                                                     
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS IN SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION               
POTENTIAL AT TERMINALS NEXT 18 HOURS.                                           
RELATIVELY STRONG...FOR LATE JULY...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN              
RAOB/PROFILER/VAPOR DATA MOVING ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AREA OF                    
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
MORNING WITH BEST MID LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATING ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALSO                 
FOCUSED FROM NORTH CENTRAL WI TO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...                
WITH WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO             
TIGHTEN A BIT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. HIGHER RESOLUTION            
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING NAM/RUC AND LOCALLY RUN NAM ALL                   
SUGGEST CURRENT SOUTHEAST FLOW/LAKE BREEZE WILL BE OVERCOME BY                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING              
THROUGH ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY TRAILS ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS             
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE              
SUGGESTS MORE OF A BROAD PRESSURE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM            
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRUE FROPA APPEARS 14-16Z              
WITH WIND VEERING MORE NORTHWEST.                                               
WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...UPSTREAM MORNING RAOBS                 
INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800 HPA OR SO...THOUGH              
RECENT ACARS ASCENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD/KRFD DEPICT MORE STABLE                 
THERMAL PROFILES FARTHER TO THE EAST. RUC/LOCAL NAM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY HAVE A            
TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS TERMINALS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED             
A FEW RW/TRW THIS MORNING FROM IA/MO BORDER REGION INTO WESTERN IL              
IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGION ALONG AXIS OF WEAK 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL                
JET. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FROM              
SOUTHEAST IA TO NEAR KSTL...WITH 925-850 HPA THERMAL                            
GRADIENT/ELEVATED WARM FRONT FROM IA TO CENTRAL IL WHICH HAS LIKELY             
BEEN AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THOUGH THESE                   
FEATURES APPEAR TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME PER RUC/NAM                    
FORECASTS. THUS WHILE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY TO OCCUR             
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...               
LACK OF CLEAR LOW LEVEL FORCING/FOCUS YIELDS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR             
POINT FORECAST TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ELECTED HOWEVER TO              
MENTION A VCSH WITH CB CLOUD GROUP FOR KRFD DURING PEAK DIURNAL                 
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
FWC/MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR HAZE BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND              
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN LOWER 70S              
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.                                                        
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
303 PM CDT                                                                      
RELATIVELY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO FOR LATE JULY               
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT                  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
IN THE PROCESS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS               
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...AND SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE              
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                 
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN              
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO               
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT                       
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT QUICKLY DECREASING AS WEAK HIGH                   
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                       
THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE BY                          
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY SUNDAY                
AS ANOTHER LOW PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1020 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                              
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM OVERNIGHT LARGELY                            
STAYING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ASSOCIATED CLOUD               
SHIELD STARTING TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE EXTENT                
OF SUNSHINE...WITH INTERACTION WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM                
RECENT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEW THUNDERSTORMS.                                 
WEAK FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC-13 MODEL              
SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS NOT             
ALL THAT BULLISH ABOUT DEVELOPING ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR SOME             
STORMS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ETA-12 ALSO             
NOT REALLY SHOWING ANYTHING RAIN-WISE. CAN`T NECESSARILY RULE OUT               
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE THOUGH IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN...SO            
WILL HANG ON TO 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.                              
EXTRAPOLATION OF CLEARING LINE FROM IOWA HAS IT REACHING THE I-55               
CORRIDOR TOWARD 18Z. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS                 
RUNNING BEHIND ORIGINAL FORECAST...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH                   
AFTERNOON SUN TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ORIGINAL            
VALUES...BUT WILL DROP THEM A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE LINGERING                  
CLOUDS.                                                                         
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS OUT BY 1045 AM.                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                              
NARROW BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS HAS BEEN STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
THE KPIA/KBMI TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN                
ERODING UPSTREAM OF GALESBURG. KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUDS IN FOR A                 
COUPLE HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                 
SOME TEMPO PERIODS AT KCMI AS WELL ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY. AREAS                 
AROUND KSPI/KDEC HAVE LARGELY REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS            
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS. CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL THUNDER CHANCES              
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION               
WILL LIKELY BE MORE TOWARD SUNRISE IF IT OCCURS. DEPENDING ON THE               
AMOUNT OF ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AHEAD OF INCOMING STORMS...SOME LIGHT               
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SUNRISE.                          
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 208 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                               
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA               
AT 02Z. ALSO MCV SHOWING UP NICELY ON RADAR LOOPS ACROSS THE SE.                
MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NE MO. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS               
LIKE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK SW OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD KICK OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE MCS HAS PUSHED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT TO              
THE WEST OVERNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL MO. STILL IN NW FLOW...WITH RIDGE             
TO THE W AND TROF TO THE E. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE               
SHORT TERM. MEX GUIDANCE A TAD TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE SE              
HAVE COME DOWN SOME FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT                                            
BOTH NAM AND GFS LIFT WARM FRONT NORTH...THROUGH CENT IL DURING                 
THE DAY ON MONDAY. KEPT POPS GOING DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH                  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP AN MCS ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN IL AND IN TUES MORNING...NAM IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THE NAM              
HAD A MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS MO/IL TODAY WITH                  
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODEL RUN...WHILE THE GFS WAS TOO FAR NORTH.                 
THEREFORE...I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION.                
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS ILLINOIS ON TUE NIGHT.               
COLD FRONT ALSO DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS OUT ACROSS IL ON TUE                     
NIGHT...RESULTING IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.              
LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SAT                                                     
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN AT THE SFC...TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT.                  
HOWEVER IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW PATTERN...SHORTWAVES COULD                   
STILL TRACK OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING CHANCES OF                                
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. NO                   
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST FRIDAY.                                      
KELLY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM OVERNIGHT LARGELY STAYING ALONG              
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD STARTING             
TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.               
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SUNSHINE...WITH                 
INTERACTION WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM RECENT CONVECTION TO              
DEVELOP NEW THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
WEAK FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC-13 MODEL              
SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS NOT             
ALL THAT BULLISH ABOUT DEVELOPING ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR SOME             
STORMS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ETA-12 ALSO             
NOT REALLY SHOWING ANYTHING RAIN-WISE. CAN`T NECESSARILY RULE OUT               
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE THOUGH IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN...SO            
WILL HANG ON TO 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.                              
EXTRAPOLATION OF CLEARING LINE FROM IOWA HAS IT REACHING THE I-55               
CORRIDOR TOWARD 18Z. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS                 
RUNNING BEHIND ORIGINAL FORECAST...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH                   
AFTERNOON SUN TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ORIGINAL            
VALUES...BUT WILL DROP THEM A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE LINGERING                  
CLOUDS.                                                                         
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS OUT BY 1045 AM.                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 208 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                               
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA               
AT 02Z. ALSO MCV SHOWING UP NICELY ON RADAR LOOPS ACROSS THE SE.                
MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NE MO. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS               
LIKE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK SW OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD KICK OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE MCS HAS PUSHED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT TO              
THE WEST OVERNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL MO. STILL IN NW FLOW...WITH RIDGE             
TO THE W AND TROF TO THE E. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE               
SHORT TERM. MEX GUIDANCE A TAD TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE SE              
HAVE COME DOWN SOME FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT                                            
BOTH NAM AND GFS LIFT WARM FRONT NORTH...THROUGH CENT IL DURING                 
THE DAY ON MONDAY. KEPT POPS GOING DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH                  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP AN MCS ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN IL AND IN TUES MORNING...NAM IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THE NAM              
HAD A MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS MO/IL TODAY WITH                  
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODEL RUN...WHILE THE GFS WAS TOO FAR NORTH.                 
THEREFORE...I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION.                
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS ILLINOIS ON TUE NIGHT.               
COLD FRONT ALSO DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS OUT ACROSS IL ON TUE                     
NIGHT...RESULTING IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.              
LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SAT                                                     
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN AT THE SFC...TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT.                  
HOWEVER IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW PATTERN...SHORTWAVES COULD                   
STILL TRACK OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING CHANCES OF                                
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. NO                   
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST FRIDAY.                                      
KELLY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                               
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE               
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...                   
PICKING THE FAVORED TIME/LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS                 
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH               
THE TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS                 
FOR STORMS. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY LAST                
NIGHTS STORMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO                
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE                  
ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AGAIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE               
SPECIFICS...WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.                    
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF OVER ERN IA THIS AFTN               
PROPAGATING EWD AT 35-40KT ACROSS IL THIS EVE. EXPECT STORMS TO                 
WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND AS THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE                 
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA...HWVR...3-6KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM FM DTX            
EVE SOUNDING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
TO ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST IN WEAKENED STATE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH               
OUR AREA TONIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY OVER SWRN             
PORTION OF CWA...GOING CHC POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA STILL A            
REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
CDFNT OVER NORTHWEST WI/NW IA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NRN INDIANA WED            
MORNING. FRONT SHOULD BE RATHER DIFFUSE WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING            
FROM SW TO WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TS ONGOING ALONG                    
CDFNT OVER NW WI AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WRN IL.                    
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS            
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT... MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND APPROACHING UPPER            
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR TS            
OVER IL TO REACH THE TERMINALS IN A WEAKENED STATE LATE TONIGHT.                
WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...AND                      
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING IN THE                        
MORNING...TS CHANCES WED APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                                 
19Z ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICIES NEARING THE               
REGION...A POTENT SW TROUGH ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A                
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HEADING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH             
OF THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES                 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE UTILIZED THE NAM 12 AND AND RUC13 FOR               
FORECAST DETAILS MAINLY IN TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES AND THERE              
RESULTANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN. MOISTURE             
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE REGION PER WEAK MOMENTUM                 
FIELDS GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE FA.                 
HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER IL/IA/MO AND WILL                
BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS LL WINDS RESPOND TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS             
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WITH INCREASED LL                    
MOISTURE...MID COOLING WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT IN REPONSE TO THE                  
SKIRTING UPPER IMPULSE...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN SHOWALTER INDICES               
PROGS FALLING TO AROUND -3. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE              
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
FORCING/AND WEAK LL WIND FIELDS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO WELL                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALLOWING THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND ANY                  
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE SOLE MECHANISM FOR PRODUCTION             
OF PRECIP. NIGHTTIME FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO                
PRECIP CHANCES. HENCE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK 50 POPS TO THE WEST WHERE             
BEST INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER EAST...HAVE LOWERED TO               
40...WHICH MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT...THINKING MAV                    
GUIDANCE MAY BE THE MOST REALISTIC IN THE POP DEPARTMENT.                       
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE REGION AND STALL IN              
RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. THE TRACK OF              
THIS IMPULSE VARIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM              
RUN TO RUN GIVEN FORECAST MODEL POOR HANDLING OF TROPICAL                       
REMNANTS/SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT                
THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE DEEP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND                   
PROGRESS EAST. THUS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE AND                  
INCREASED LL CONVERGENCE FROM THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...HAVE LET POPS             
RIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER              
DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAVORED. VEERING WINDS IN THE H925 TO H85 LAYER             
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ADDED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS.                                     
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH WED NIGHT PER NORTHERLY               
FLOW...ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS THERE.                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE THEME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPR LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H5 HIGH OVER OHIO               
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS BRINGS A WEAK SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT              
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALREADY CAPPED BY THIS TIME.  HEAT BUILDS IN                
EARNEST BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OVER 20C SAT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE...ALREADY BEING UNDERCUT...WARMED EVEN MORE.                 
BUMPED HIGHS  INTO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS SAT-SUN WHICH IS STILL BELOW            
GUIDANCE.  WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THE DOOR IS STILL OPEN TO                
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FASTER TO DROP NW FLOW OVER REGION THAN             
THE OP RUN...WITH BNDRY SAGGING NEAR NORTHERN CWA BY END OF FCST                
PD.  BUT ONCE ESTABLISHED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIDGING HOLD            
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.  EITHER WAY...TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CDFNT OVER NORTHWEST WI/NW IA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NRN INDIANA WED            
MORNING. FRONT SHOULD BE RATHER DIFFUSE WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING            
FROM SW TO WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TS ONGOING ALONG                    
CDFNT OVER NW WI AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WRN IL.                    
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS            
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT... MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND APPROACHING UPPER            
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR TS            
OVER IL TO REACH THE TERMINALS IN A WEAKENED STATE LATE TONIGHT.                
WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...AND                      
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING IN THE                        
MORNING...TS CHANCES WED APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                                 
19Z ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICIES NEARING THE               
REGION...A POTENT SW TROUGH ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A                
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HEADING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH             
OF THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES                 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE UTILIZED THE NAM 12 AND AND RUC13 FOR               
FORECAST DETAILS MAINLY IN TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES AND THERE              
RESULTANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN. MOISTURE             
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE REGION PER WEAK MOMENTUM                 
FIELDS GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE FA.                 
HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER IL/IA/MO AND WILL                
BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS LL WINDS RESPOND TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS             
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WITH INCREASED LL                    
MOISTURE...MID COOLING WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT IN REPONSE TO THE                  
SKIRTING UPPER IMPULSE...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN SHOWALTER INDICES               
PROGS FALLING TO AROUND -3. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE              
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
FORCING/AND WEAK LL WIND FIELDS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO WELL                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALLOWING THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND ANY                  
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE SOLE MECHANISM FOR PRODUCTION             
OF PRECIP. NIGHTTIME FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO                
PRECIP CHANCES. HENCE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK 50 POPS TO THE WEST WHERE             
BEST INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER EAST...HAVE LOWERED TO               
40...WHICH MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT...THINKING MAV                    
GUIDANCE MAY BE THE MOST REALISTIC IN THE POP DEPARTMENT.                       
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE REGION AND STALL IN              
RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. THE TRACK OF              
THIS IMPULSE VARIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM              
RUN TO RUN GIVEN FORECAST MODEL POOR HANDLING OF TROPICAL                       
REMNANTS/SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT                
THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE DEEP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND                   
PROGRESS EAST. THUS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE AND                  
INCREASED LL CONVERGENCE FROM THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...HAVE LET POPS             
RIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER              
DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAVORED. VEERING WINDS IN THE H925 TO H85 LAYER             
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ADDED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS.                                     
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH WED NIGHT PER NORTHERLY               
FLOW...ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS THERE.                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE THEME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPR LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H5 HIGH OVER OHIO               
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS BRINGS A WEAK SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT              
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALREADY CAPPED BY THIS TIME.  HEAT BUILDS IN                
EARNEST BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OVER 20C SAT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE...ALREADY BEING UNDERCUT...WARMED EVEN MORE.                 
BUMPED HIGHS  INTO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS SAT-SUN WHICH IS STILL BELOW            
GUIDANCE.  WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THE DOOR IS STILL OPEN TO                
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FASTER TO DROP NW FLOW OVER REGION THAN             
THE OP RUN...WITH BNDRY SAGGING NEAR NORTHERN CWA BY END OF FCST                
PD.  BUT ONCE ESTABLISHED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIDGING HOLD            
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.  EITHER WAY...TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...JT                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                                 
19Z ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICIES NEARING THE               
REGION...A POTENT SW TROUGH ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A                
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HEADING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH             
OF THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES                 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE UTILIZED THE NAM 12 AND AND RUC13 FOR               
FORECAST DETAILS MAINLY IN TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES AND THERE              
RESULTANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN. MOISTURE             
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE REGION PER WEAK MOMENTUM                 
FIELDS GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE FA.                 
HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER IL/IA/MO AND WILL                
BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS LL WINDS RESPOND TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS             
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WITH INCREASED LL                    
MOISTURE...MID COOLING WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT IN REPONSE TO THE                  
SKIRTING UPPER IMPULSE...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN SHOWALTER INDICES               
PROGS FALLING TO AROUND -3. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE              
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
FORCING/AND WEAK LL WIND FIELDS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO WELL                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALLOWING THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND ANY                  
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE SOLE MECHANISM FOR PRODUCTION             
OF PRECIP. NIGHTTIME FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO                
PRECIP CHANCES. HENCE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK 50 POPS TO THE WEST WHERE             
BEST INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER EAST...HAVE LOWERED TO               
40...WHICH MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT...THINKING MAV                    
GUIDANCE MAY BE THE MOST REALISTIC IN THE POP DEPARTMENT.                       
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE REGION AND STALL IN              
RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. THE TRACK OF              
THIS IMPULSE VARIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM              
RUN TO RUN GIVEN FORECAST MODEL POOR HANDLING OF TROPICAL                       
REMNANTS/SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT                
THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE DEEP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND                   
PROGRESS EAST. THUS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE AND                  
INCREASED LL CONVERGENCE FROM THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...HAVE LET POPS             
RIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER              
DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAVORED. VEERING WINDS IN THE H925 TO H85 LAYER             
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ADDED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS.                                     
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH WED NIGHT PER NORTHERLY               
FLOW...ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS THERE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE THEME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPR LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H5 HIGH OVER OHIO               
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS BRINGS A WEAK SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT              
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALREADY CAPPED BY THIS TIME.  HEAT BUILDS IN                
EARNEST BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OVER 20C SAT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE...ALREADY BEING UNDERCUT...WARMED EVEN MORE.                 
BUMPED HIGHS  INTO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS SAT-SUN WHICH IS STILL BELOW            
GUIDANCE.  WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THE DOOR IS STILL OPEN TO                
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FASTER TO DROP NW FLOW OVER REGION THAN             
THE OP RUN...WITH BNDRY SAGGING NEAR NORTHERN CWA BY END OF FCST PD.            
BUT ONCE ESTABLISHED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIDGING HOLD                 
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.  EITHER WAY...TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION PER AN ADVANCING DEEP UPPER              
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS              
SAME TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                                
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE              
REGION. INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH                
THE BEST CHANCE BEING IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF                 
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAK FORCING PRESENT...HAVE LEFT TEMPO                  
GROUPS OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD                      
DEVELOPMENT...OPTING FOR A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME. INCREASE LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT BR/FG ONCE AGAIN IN THE EAST WHERE              
CLOUDS ARE LEAST EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...                                                  
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IA WITH            
A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO JUST NW OF DSM. A HIGH              
PRESSURE BUBBLE HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE LOW                
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.             
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY BEING REINFORCED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR                
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION AXIS RAINFALL APPROACHING SRN IA.                   
INSTABILITY IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC AND SPC ANALYSIS                
GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE              
CAPPING...IF ANY. HOWEVER...LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWER WARM            
NOSE. GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN IA...FEEL THAT BEST             
CHANCES FOR LATE AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN                 
INTERSTATE 80 AND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO                  
PERHAPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR OTTUMWA. OTHERWISE...FAR SOUTHERN             
IOWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH               
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.                                                      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY             
BUT REMNANTS OF DOLLY WILL STILL BE EVIDENCED IN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST             
MO.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE WASHED             
OUT FRONT FROM TODAY AND THE MOISTURE FROM DOLLY.  THIS MAY CLIP THE            
FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PRECIP OUT            
OF THAT.  LATER ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST             
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP A             
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR SOUTH DAKOTA.                 
THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR BUT CAPES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2600 J/KG                
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  I FELT THIS WARRANTED AT LEAST             
A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OR CHANCE WHICH WAS EXPENDED DURING THE                 
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE PERIOD.                                                
FOR THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION REALLY STRENGTHENS AS A THERMAL RIDGE             
PUSHES IN.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DRIFTS INTO MN LEAVING IA            
STRONGLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  MODELS STILL INDICATE A WEAK VORT MAX             
AND SHORT WAVE PUSHING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE UPPER              
LEVEL FLOW DOES BECOME MORE NW OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA SO                
SHOULD AN MCS DEVELOP IN THIS VICINITY IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN IOWA            
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR ALREADY AND WE               
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR NOW.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER            
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH EACH RUN SO THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED/                  
REMOVED IN LATER PERIODS.                                                       
FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST              
AND WE TURN HOT.  TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER AND THE            
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR BUT MID 90S NOW SEEM LIKELY AND MAYBE             
EVEN HIGHER READINGS.  A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLATED TO                 
FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED...BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT                 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO POINTING TO A MORE                 
ACTIVE PERIOD OVER NORTHERN IOWA AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BACKED TEMPS DOWN AS WELL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY            
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...30/00Z                                                              
VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER CTL/NRN IA THIS EVENING AND               
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS ON A TERMINAL                        
SUFFICIENTLY SMALL TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. -RA WILL BE                
PERSISTENT AT KOTM AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z...BUT SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO            
RESULT IN MVFR VIS. OTHER CONCERN IS BR DURING EARLY MORNING                    
HOURS...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR OR LOWER RESULTING VIS AT A                   
STATION OR TWO. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW QUIETER WEATHER WILL RESULT              
IN PREDOMINATING VFR CONDITIONS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
AVIATION...LEE                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IA WITH            
A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO JUST NW OF DSM. A HIGH              
PRESSURE BUBBLE HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE LOW                
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.             
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY BEING REINFORCED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR                
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION AXIS RAINFALL APPROACHING SRN IA.                   
INSTABILITY IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC AND SPC ANALYSIS                
GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE              
CAPPING...IF ANY. HOWEVER...LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWER WARM            
NOSE. GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN IA...FEEL THAT BEST             
CHANCES FOR LATE AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN                 
INTERSTATE 80 AND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO                  
PERHAPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR OTTUMWA. OTHERWISE...FAR SOUTHERN             
IOWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH               
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.                                                      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY             
BUT REMNANTS OF DOLLY WILL STILL BE EVIDENCED IN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST             
MO.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE WASHED             
OUT FRONT FROM TODAY AND THE MOISTURE FROM DOLLY.  THIS MAY CLIP THE            
FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PRECIP OUT            
OF THAT.  LATER ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST             
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP A             
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR SOUTH DAKOTA.                 
THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR BUT CAPES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2600 J/KG                
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  I FELT THIS WARRANTED AT LEAST             
A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OR CHANCE WHICH WAS EXPENDED DURING THE                 
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE PERIOD.                                                
FOR THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION REALLY STRENGTHENS AS A THERMAL RIDGE             
PUSHES IN.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DRIFTS INTO MN LEAVING IA            
STRONGLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  MODELS STILL INDICATE A WEAK VORT MAX             
AND SHORT WAVE PUSHING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE UPPER              
LEVEL FLOW DOES BECOME MORE NW OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA SO                
SHOULD AN MCS DEVELOP IN THIS VICINITY IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN IOWA            
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR ALREADY AND WE               
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR NOW.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER            
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH EACH RUN SO THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED/                  
REMOVED IN LATER PERIODS.                                                       
FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST              
AND WE TURN HOT.  TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY CLOUD COVER AND THE            
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR BUT MID 90S NOW SEEM LIKELY AND MAYBE             
EVEN HIGHER READINGS.  A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLATED TO                 
FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED...BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT                 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO POINTING TO A MORE                 
ACTIVE PERIOD OVER NORTHERN IOWA AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BACKED TEMPS DOWN AS WELL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY            
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...29/18Z                                                              
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IA THROUGH               
02Z WITH LEAST COVERAGE AND EARLIER ENDING AT NRN SITES.                        
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN              
VC OR CB IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE TO HANG ON TO MVFR CEILINGS AT              
KOTM FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. AFTER CONVECTION MOVES OUT                      
TONIGHT...DECENT CHANCES OF HAVING MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY              
WHERE IT CLEARS BEST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER                                                     
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
204 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST INCLUDE WHEN TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION               
CHANCES...POSSIBILITIES FOR FOG TONIGHT...AND AFTERNOON TEMPS OVER              
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.                                                           
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SLOW PROGRESSION OF              
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL               
DRYING WAS EVIDENT ACROSS COLORADO INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. IN              
THE LOW LEVELS, A THERMAL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS               
HELPED KEEP TEMPS STUCK IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST                     
KANSAS...ALONG WITH IT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE FOR RESULTANT                   
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER. 1000 TO 2000 FOOT CEILINGS WERE              
STILL HOLDING TOUGH EVEN AT 18Z. I REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE                
OF THIS DIMINISHING MUCH BEFORE SUNSET GIVEN THE VERY SLOW                      
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED ABOUT                
70 MILES EAST OVER THE SPAN OF ABOUT 6 HOURS. AN EAST-WEST WEAK                 
SURFACE RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE THE LENGTH OF THE KANSAS-                   
NEBRASKA BORDER.                                                                
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL                
KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL               
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65              
TO 68F RANGE. THE EVENING WILL START OFF WITH ABOUT A 10F                       
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE THE SUN SETS              
AGAIN AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE                  
NIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE 67 TO 70 RANGE FOR A LOW.               
WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE                  
CENTRAL DDC CWA IN LINE WITH ICT AND GLD FORECAST. THIS LATE                    
AFTERNOON`S WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE MAINLY               
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING CLOSER                
TO THE CENTER OF THE SLOWLY MOVING CYCLONE...BUT AM NOT LOOKING                 
FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING               
EAST OF THE DDC CWA.                                                            
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING WITH MORE                             
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING INFLUENCING SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS              
WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY...KEEPING              
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF              
THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE EAST AS                     
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEESIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS -- THANKS TO A SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC JET MOVING ACROSS                
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO MONTANA. THIS JET WILL HAVE LITTLE                   
INFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OTHER THAN HELPING ALLOW SURFACE              
WINDS TO VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND              
RESPONDS TO THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. VERY WARM H7-8 TEMPS              
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT                 
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY RAPID RETURN              
TO THE HEAT BY THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE                 
99-100F TERRITORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC CWA, ESPECIALLY WEST.                  
EASTERN CWA (SOUTH CENTRAL KS) WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE                
REMNANT HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...SUCH               
THAT HIGHS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET TO GET MUCH ABOVE 95 OR                
SO. -UMSCHEID                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE            
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY                 
FANFARE. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND. H85 TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 20S EAST TO THE LOWER               
30S WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE             
EASTERN AND CENTRAL FA WITH UPPER 50S WEST. GIVEN THE PEAK HEATING              
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS              
ACROSS THE AREA, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE              
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE GRIDS DRY AS ANY              
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF             
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TO START THE WORKWEEK. MODELS AGREE WITH AN             
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE             
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE              
HIRES ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER. CANADIAN MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE               
WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE GFS AND OTHER SUPPORTING              
THE HIRES ECMWF. EITHER WAY, THERE IS JUSTIFICATION IN INSERTING                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE START OF THE               
WORKWEEK. SURFACE RESPONSE FROM THE HIRES ECMWF AND GFS PUSHES FRONT            
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, HAVE CONFINED               
THE POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR              
SPEED AND LOCATION OF BOTH UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES TO START THE              
WORKWEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW             
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND               
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.            
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 13Z TUE. A PERIOD OF                
LIFR IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ONCE SUNRISE OCCURS, VFR CONDITIONS            
WILL RETURN TO THE SITES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  90  69  99 /  10  10  10   0                                           
GCK  66  91  67 100 /  10  10  10   0                                           
EHA  66  93  65 100 /   0  10  10   0                                           
LBL  67  92  67 100 /  10  10  10   0                                           
HYS  66  89  69  98 /  10  10  10   0                                           
P28  72  90  72  97 /  30  10  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/30/30                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWEST OK DOES NOT WANT TO                          
DIE. WITH WEAK RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER               
TO DAYBREAK...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS IN WESTERN TAFS             
DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE VFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LATEST NORTH AMERICAN                
MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE                
FORECAST PERIOD AS STORMS IN WESTERN KS MOVE EAST. WILL ONLY                    
MENTION CUMULONIMBUS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/                         
AVIATION... WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KS...CURRENT MODEL                
TRENDS WOULD PUT THE IN THE AREA AFTER 0600 UTC...BUT NOT ENTIRELY              
SURE ABOUT THAT TIMING. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS SEEM              
TO SUGGEST SOME MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY AS CLOSE AS HYS. AT               
THIS POINT OPTED TO ONLY GO WITH CUMULONIMBUS AT RSL/HUT FOR NOW                
AND THEN WATCH TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE FOR NOW               
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.-HOWERTON                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF                  
DOLLY...THEN DRY AND HOT TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
WILL KEEP THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS POP CONCERNS WILL                
EITHER STAY TO THE WEST OR POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.                  
FIRST AREA IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE                 
REMNANTS OF DOLLY DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE...WITH                  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS IMPULSE ACROSS                
SOUTHWEST KS. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHRA/TSRA             
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FAR            
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.  NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NE                
KS/NW MO WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS PLACE...BUT ATMOSPHERE                  
REMAINS CAPPED.  WEAKER CAP EXISTS FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND BELIEVE            
THIS WILL BE AREA WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP...AND STAY TO THE EAST              
OF THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FOR THE AREA.               
MON-TUE:                                                                        
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE                    
REMNANTS OF DOLLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT NOT TOO               
SURE THE MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO THE              
CURRENT PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NOT THE MAIN                
CIRCULATION.  SO BELIEVE THAT MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN                   
BRINGING POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR EARLY MON.  WOULD PREFER TO             
HOLD OFF ON POPS UNTIL MON AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. ONCE THE                  
SYSTEM ARRIVES...VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THIS SYSTEM...COULD LEAD            
TO SOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS FOR MON NIGHT...SO WILL                   
CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT. SO WILL              
INCREASE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.                             
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO KEEPING POPS AROUND              
INTO TUE AS MAIN IMPULSE MAKES VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS KS. VERY               
TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY DAY             
ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL REDUCE TEMPS SOME FOR TUE.                            
WED-FRI:                                                                        
THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.               
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOUTHEAST KS WHERE SOME LINGERING                   
EFFECTS OF DOLLY REMNANTS COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME SHRA.  GFS AND               
ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS SLOWER TREND...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR               
NOW. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE SUNSHINE RETURN AS SOME UPPER            
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.                                                  
REST OF THE EXTENDED:                                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER              
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ECMWF IS STRONGER IN BUILDING THE             
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO                
WEST...KEEPING PORTIONS OF ERN KS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME. MAIN                   
DIFFERENCE WILL BE HOW WARM IT WILL GET...AS BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK TO             
KEEP THINGS DRY.                                                                
KETCHAM                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE ISOLATED STORM               
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.                                                       
CONFIDENCE REGARDING STORM INITIATION REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE                   
AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME REMNANT ENERGY FROM DOLLY                  
MOVING OVER NW TX/OK PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT             
THERE MAYBE SOME WEAKER UPPER ENERGY SITUATED OVER NW KS. BOTH LAPSE            
AND RUC DATA HAVE ONE INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM NW KS INTO                 
CENTRAL KS WITH ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN             
MO. BEST CU DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEST OF FORECAST AREA OVER THE OK               
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN KS...THEREFORE HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN             
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL JUST MENTION CB IN THE               
CLOUD GROUP FOR KCNU WITH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN OTHER             
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    73  98  74  93 /  10  20  30  40                                
HUTCHINSON      72  98  73  92 /  10  20  30  40                                
NEWTON          73  98  74  93 /  10  10  30  40                                
ELDORADO        73  97  74  93 /  10  10  30  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  75  93 /  10  20  30  30                                
RUSSELL         73  97  72  91 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      72  96  72  90 /  20  40  50  40                                
SALINA          74 100  75  92 /  10  20  30  40                                
MCPHERSON       73  99  73  92 /  10  20  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  30                                
CHANUTE         72  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  30                                
IOLA            72  97  74  94 /  20  10  10  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  94 /  10  10  10  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
436 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE CURRENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ SLOWLY WORKING AND                
DECAYING SOUTHWARD HAS ENCOUNTERED A SHALLOWER POOL OF MOISTURE                 
AND INSTABILITY...AS INDICATED BY THE GOES SOUNDER/WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE UP TO 1/2 INCH               
LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST                    
AREA...WITH CURRENT LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO NEAR -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.        
ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DISTURBED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME /COLD POOL                
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS/ THE WIND FIELDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE              
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA INDICATE THE REFORMING OF A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN MO/IA/NRN 2/3RDS IL AS OF 4 AM                
THIS MORNING. THE 13KM RUC AND 40KM GFS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE              
WILL BECOME ENHANCES AS A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS THE                     
NORTHERN LIMB OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.                         
WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES PUSHING DOWN THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...I CANNOT               
RULE OUT THAT PART OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN IL AND                 
SOUTHWEST IN...AS WELL AS EXTREME NORTHWEST KY...WILL NOT SEE A                 
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST              
PART OF TODAY. ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TODAY FURTHER              
NORTH AND MAY IMPACT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE WFO PAH                 
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.                           
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED /DAMPENED                 
SOUTHWARD/ SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL CIRCULATION /MCV/ FROM              
DOLLY...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CO/WRN KS. THIS FEATURE PRODUCE                  
SOME MINOR RIDGING INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY                
ON TUESDAY...CREATING ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO                       
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                        
THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE                    
EXTRA-TROPICAL DOLLY CIRCULATION SPREADS EAST...CREATING LIFT ALONG             
A DIFFERENTIAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE                  
CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE 40KM GFS HAS EXHIBITED               
A NORTHERN BIAS WITH THE TRANSLATION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...I                
COMPENSATED WITH A FURTHER SOUTHEAST SPATIAL MOVEMENT /175-200 NM/ AND          
TEMPORAL / UP TO 3 HOUR/ ADJUSTMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD               
FROM DOLLY. THIS MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN UP TO                
6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH THE PACKAGE ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING.       
I HAVE GONE QUITE CONSERVATIVE WITH POP ESTIMATES...BUT LIKELY TO               
CATEGORICAL POP/WEATHER MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY             
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                                              
ONCE DOLLY MOVES OUT...THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE PRONOUNCED AND                   
FASTER BUILDING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS              
IN MIND...PRECIPITATION IS SHUT OFF FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA               
NO LATER THAN THURSDAY EVENING.                                                 
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH                 
THIS PACKAGE.                                                                   
GIVEN THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...A HEADLINE WAS ADDED               
TO THE TEXT ZONES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE                 
OVER SERN MO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND OVER SWRN IN/WRN KY...AND                  
PART OF SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                          
AS A FINAL NOTE...THE CURRENT PACKAGE INCLUDES PRE-FIRST PERIOD MENTION         
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THAT IS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH               
THE EARLY MORNING. ONCE MOST OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM                 
DECAYS NEAR DAYBREAK...AN UPDATE/REVISION WILL BE MADE TO THE                   
TEXT/TABULAR SUITE OF PRODUCTS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS            
OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. CAN EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR                  
CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 13Z. BY MID MORNING             
EXPECT ONLY SCT CU AND AC. SCT CB IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 18Z THAT              
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ML/SMITH                                                           
LONG TERM....SMITH                                                              
AVIATION...ML                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARMER AND               
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL             
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.               
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER                 
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH SWINGING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN                 
MARITIMES AS RIDING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A DUAL STREAM                
SYSTEM WAS MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS             
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE PLAINS. ACARS 400-250MB WIND              
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-100KT WESTERLY JET OVER THE UPPER                      
MIDWEST...WHICH TROUGHS OVER NEW ENGLAND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
PLACED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE                   
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE               
LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH 1040MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WAS STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.                                                          
CONVECTION HAS SHOWED A DOWNWARD DIURNAL TREND THIS EVENING. WHILE              
09Z SREF INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RETAINING GREATER THAN 250             
J/KG OF MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A TRIGGER AS                   
RIDGING ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.                     
WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND MOISTURE INCREASING NORTH OF             
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA (NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND IN               
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALLEYS OUT WEST.                                      
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MIDWEST AHEAD OF NEXT DUAL STREAM SYSTEM              
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. NAM/GFS SEEM            
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS DEPICTION...SO HAVE RELIED ON                        
EXPERIMENTAL HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RUC WRF-ARW3 FOR GUIDANCE            
THROUGH 08Z. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT. IF MCV CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND ENOUGH WARMING            
OCCURS AHEAD OF FEATURE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE                
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AS THINGS EVOLVE              
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                  
DEPENDING UPON WHICH MDL YOU LOOK AT WED AFTN COULD BE FULL OF                  
XCTMNT OR RATEHR QUIET. NAM GIVING CAPES INXS OF 2000 WED AFTN                  
GIVEN THE LATE JUL HEAT/HUMIDITY. I`M UNSURE IF THERE WL BE A                   
TRIGGER TO MAKE WED AFTN MORE THAN SCT HVY RAINERS...WE`LL KEEP AN              
EYE ON LATER MDL RUNS FOR CLARIFICATION. HIGHS WED IN LM 90S XCPT               
IN HIGHLANDS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE             
EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL COLD                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE LAST MENTIONABLE CHANCES             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE                 
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE                             
WEATHER...THURSDAY COULD PROVIDE ITS OWN SET OF WEATHER CONCERNS.               
NOTABLE SHEAR WITH CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE COLD              
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. TIMING                 
THURSDAY SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST HEATING...BUT            
ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY COULD SIMPLY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.             
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WILL CARRY CHANCE            
POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST              
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS               
AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY              
AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS ALOFT LATER IN THE PERIOD...INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE                  
POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH THE COOLER HPC GUIDANCE FOR              
NOW...BUT THE MEX NUMBERS ARE WARMER AND MAY BE THE TREND IN LATER              
FORECASTS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT                  
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF CHO-BWI LINE JUST NORTH OF               
FRONTAL ZONE...AND CLIMATOLOGICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS OUT WEST.                    
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS              
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE HIGH CLOUDS TO            
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE              
BY AFTERNOON. WITH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE OF HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL            
PLAY OUT YET...SO HAVE INDICATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH A CB GROUP             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH                
MOVES THROUGH. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH                
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR               
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO            
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO                               
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...PROMPTING SPECIAL MARINE                
WARNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND               
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WOODY!                                                               
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI                                                            
SHORT TERM...WOODY!                                                             
LONG TERM...SAR                                                                 
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI/SAR                                                         
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/SAR                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
922 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH                         
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID              
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
S/WV STARTING TO SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES CWFA. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS              
QUITE LARGE...RESULTING IN DSPTG ECHOES LAST CPL HRS. WITH THAT IN              
MIND...HV RMVD THE EVE SCHC FOR CNTRL/SRN MD AND DC. HWVR...00Z                 
LWX RAOB DEPICTS SGFNT MSTNG BTWN H8-6. 18Z NAM KEEPS THIS MSTR                 
HANGING ARND...AND BASED ON SATPIX...THAT APPEARS RSNBL. IN                     
ADDITION...21Z LWX WRF-ARW4 AND LTST RUC HINT AT PSBL QPF CNTRL                 
SHEN VLY/INVOF CHO AFTR MIDNGT...AS ANTHR WK WV PASSES BY JUST TO               
THE S. CANT REALLY PICK OUT A CULPRIT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT              
BASED ON TRENDS PAST 6 HRS...CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THAT SOLN                 
EITHER. SUBSEQUENT CHGS TO FCST WL BE TO INCR CLDS JUST ABT                     
EVERYWHERE OVRNGT...AND KEEP SCHC POPS SWRN CWFA OVNGT AS WELL.                 
SUSPECT ANY PCPN WL BE SPRNKLY AT MOST. HV REDUCED CITY-OUTLYING                
MIN-T SPREAD AND INCRSD DEWPTS CONSIDERING ANTICIPATED CLDCVR.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                      
18Z NAM KEEPS MID DECK MSTR INTO THE AFTN. AS A CONTINUATION OF                 
1ST PD CHGS...HV INCRSD CLDCVR TMRW MRNG AS WELL. SFC HIPRES NOT                
ALL THAT STRONG...AND H8-5 PTTN APPEARS TO BE SLGTLY TROFFY. ON                 
THE WHOLE...DONT WISH TO BE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM...BUT CLDS                    
LIKELY TO BE HOVERING BTWN SCT-BKN. WL BE KEEPING MAXT AS IS PER                
RISING HGTS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
MODELS SHOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA BY                    
WEDNESDAY. MID 90S MAX T WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN HEAT INDEX            
VALUES CLOSE TO 100 DEG F. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE                             
INCREASED...MAYBE TO 2K J/KG BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST            
OF A COLD FRONT...BUT MODELS ALSO HINT AT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS               
THE CWA. SO...AFTER INITIAL CAPPING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE            
ABLE TO FORM.                                                                   
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS              
WAY THROUGH THE CWA. HAVE POPS NEAR 40 PCT. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT                
THROUGH THE AREA FOR DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO                
BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE FASTER LATER IN THE WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS CWA               
GENERALLY DRY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS CHANCES OF                   
CONVECTION BACK ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THINK THE               
ECMWF IS TOO QUICK TO BRING BACK CONVECTION. IF THE RIDGE IS AS                 
STRONG AS THE GFS DEPICTS...NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN HOT AND DRY.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...W/ PLENTY OF MID DECK CLDS.              
CHO MAY ALSO SEE SOME PREDAWN MVFR FOG.                                         
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT WINDS...10 KNOTS OR LESS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS                  
THRU TUE.                                                                       
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT                 
COULD TEASE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON            
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN                                                             
NEAR TERM...HTS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HTS                                                                
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN                                                            
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN                                                         
MARINE...HTS/PELOQUIN                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. A COLD FRONT                 
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH DULUTH AND THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                        
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER EASTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN U.P. IN AN                
AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE MOVING             
EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE U.P. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND            
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL                     
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT              
850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE                   
ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING SOME MUCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND A             
PRONOUNCED THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO             
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
PASSING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE JUST A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR FOLLOWING             
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                             
.LONG TERM... (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)                                              
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES             
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS.             
SO...TRANQUIL/SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE              
THE RULE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THU AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE TO LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE LAKE BREEZE              
DEVELOPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                    
FRI THRU TUE...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE                
OVER THE SW CONUS WILL EXPAND EWD LATE WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND SO THAT            
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT            
THE SAME TIME...A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD            
JAMES BAY BY MON PER ECMWF/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. RESULT WILL BE AN             
EWD EXPANSION OF HEAT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
BECOMING FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL OF PERIODIC CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF            
THE HEAT AND UNDER THE UPPER JET. PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY              
OF AN EPISODE OF STRONG OR SVR STORMS. THU NIGHT/FRI OFFERS THE                 
FIRST OPPORTUNITY OF SHRA/TSRA AS APPROACHING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE                  
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...LOCATION OF THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL            
JET/STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS A SE MOVING CLUSTER OF                 
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PASS TO THE SW AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THERE MAY BE            
ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION FARTHER N ALONG APPROACHING 850MB TROF...             
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS ACROSS              
THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI. THERE IS LITTLE                  
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PCPN CHANCES BEYOND FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW IT                 
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA               
SAT/SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER MON/TUE              
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW             
ACROSS SRN CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THE                
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MON/TUE. IT WILL PROBABLY BE             
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID AT LEAST ONE OF THE DAYS (MOST LIKELY SAT)              
PRIOR TO FROPA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...DEPENDING ON PCPN             
OCCURRENCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT DON`T                
FALL BELOW 70F IN SOME AREAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON                      
HOURS...BUT HAVE REMAINED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS IN CMX AREA APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT WILL KEEP             
MENTION OF CB IN FOR SAW WHILE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE                  
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL MOIST AIR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS            
LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW...AND MAY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT CMX.              
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING A LITTLE WIND TO SURFACE              
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME                
GUSTY CONDITIONS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS              
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TO              
THE WEST. FURTHER DIMINISHING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
INTO SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.             
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. A COLD FRONT                 
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH DULUTH AND THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                        
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER EASTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN U.P. IN AN                
AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE MOVING             
EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE U.P. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND            
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL                     
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT              
850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE                   
ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING SOME MUCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND A             
PRONOUNCED THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO             
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
PASSING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE JUST A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR FOLLOWING             
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                             
.LONG TERM... (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)                                              
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES             
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS.             
SO...TRANQUIL/SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE              
THE RULE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THU AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE TO LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE LAKE BREEZE              
DEVELOPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                    
FRI THRU TUE...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE                
OVER THE SW CONUS WILL EXPAND EWD LATE WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND SO THAT            
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT            
THE SAME TIME...A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD            
JAMES BAY BY MON PER ECMWF/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. RESULT WILL BE AN             
EWD EXPANSION OF HEAT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
BECOMING FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL OF PERIODIC CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF            
THE HEAT AND UNDER THE UPPER JET. PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY              
OF AN EPISODE OF STRONG OR SVR STORMS. THU NIGHT/FRI OFFERS THE                 
FIRST OPPORTUNITY OF SHRA/TSRA AS APPROACHING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE                  
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...LOCATION OF THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL            
JET/STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS A SE MOVING CLUSTER OF                 
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PASS TO THE SW AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THERE MAY BE            
ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION FARTHER N ALONG APPROACHING 850MB TROF...             
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS ACROSS              
THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI. THERE IS LITTLE                  
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PCPN CHANCES BEYOND FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW IT                 
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA               
SAT/SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER MON/TUE              
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW             
ACROSS SRN CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THE                
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MON/TUE. IT WILL PROBABLY BE             
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID AT LEAST ONE OF THE DAYS (MOST LIKELY SAT)              
PRIOR TO FROPA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...DEPENDING ON PCPN             
OCCURRENCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT DON`T                
FALL BELOW 70F IN SOME AREAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT OF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.                   
THEREFORE TEMPO GROUPS CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES...LONGEST AT SAW              
WHERE THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT PASS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. NO                
MENTION OF TS GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT CB                  
GROUPS ARE WARRANTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE                
COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING A LITTLE WIND             
TO SURFACE BY LATE MORNING SO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME GUSTY                    
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS              
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TO              
THE WEST. FURTHER DIMINISHING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
INTO SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.             
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY.                                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. A COLD FRONT                 
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH DULUTH AND THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING IN A                
LINE STRETCHING FROM HOUGHTON TO EAGLE RIVER WI. THESE ARE MOVING               
EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.                               
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE U.P.                    
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER                    
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS                
AFTERNOON PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CENTRAL U.P. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING SOME                  
MUCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND A THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER                 
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE 500MB LOW IS FIGURED TO TRACK TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 12Z                     
WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER AROUND 12Z                   
THURSDAY.  AT THAT TIME...THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL               
SURGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING                    
OVERHEAD FROM ROUGHLY 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  AFTER               
THAT TIME A MORE ZONAL PATTERN OR BROAD SCALE TROUGH IS FIGURED                 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
ON SATURDAY...SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR...AS STATED IN              
THE DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A VERY SIGNIFICANT/DERECHO TYPE                
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXISTS.  WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER             
AGREEMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO LONG RANGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS             
MAY BE A VIABLE SOLUTION.  HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ONLY THUNDERSTORMS THUS             
FAR IN THE HWO...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION             
OF THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM.                                                         
MODEL WISE...THE NAM CAME IN SLOWER ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL STILL                 
PREFERRED OVER THE GFS AS IT WAS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS IN              
THE NEAR TERM.  BELIEVE THAT THE NAM MAY BE TOO SLOW HOWEVER ONCE WE            
GET BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT OF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.                   
THEREFORE TEMPO GROUPS CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES...LONGEST AT SAW              
WHERE THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT PASS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. NO                
MENTION OF TS GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT CB                  
GROUPS ARE WARRANTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE                
COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING A LITTLE WIND             
TO SURFACE BY LATE MORNING SO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME GUSTY                    
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS              
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE            
SPEEDS MAY REACH 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND               
THE FRONT AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE WEST. FURTHER DIMINISHING              
OF WINDS IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE               
DROPS DOWN OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO                
GRADUALLY PICK FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25                       
KNOTS...THOUGH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...DG                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL              
QUEBEC...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER                    
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF               
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES. A LOW IS OVER THE MIDDLE AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM             
FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE             
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST                   
ALBERTA MOVES TO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THESE MID               
LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE                
UNDER WARM ADVECTION. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...MOST MODELS              
SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z...MEANING THAT THE              
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG LOW                
LEVEL JET. NAM PROGGED 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION VALUES INCREASE             
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN CWA...SUGGESTING PRETTY              
GOOD MOISTURE RETURNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER ZONE OF                 
STRONG ADVECTION VALUES EXIST IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN                
IOWA. WESTERN ZONES ARE LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE                     
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR HAIL GIVEN                  
MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT. THE            
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 14000 FT. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD              
COVER FROM THE WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                  
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EAST WHERE                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING ALLOW FOR GREATER             
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
THE MANITOBA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO              
ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL              
APPROACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE            
FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN                    
MINNESOTA RESULTS IN SOME ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THERE            
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE ECMWF/NAM BLEND LOOKS BEST. NAM FOR             
WHATEVER MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NRN MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL SLIDE AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.                    
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE FORECAST                 
AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSUMED TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT                     
SURFACE BASED. ALL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS. IF OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS CORRECT AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE MCS ACTIVITY               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN U.P....THEN THERE WOULD BE AN             
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO HEAT UP AND THUS RESULT IN SOME            
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS EXIST TO TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...              
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000               
FT...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE SOME HAIL              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN U.P WHERE              
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...WITH              
CONCERN OF LOCATION OF MCS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 15-19C AT LEAST. WILL             
STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE END OF GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                         
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS WERE NOT AS                 
SEVERE AS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MDL WAS NOT AS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER               
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THE SLOWER NAM SCENARIO...SUPPORTED              
BY THE UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WAS STILL PREFERRED.             
SO...WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH JUST MOVING INTO W UPPER MI AROUND                   
00Z...EXPECT CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CNTRL            
AND EAST CWA BTWN 00Z-06Z SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV AND QVECTOR               
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO             
SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG              
AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KT                             
RANGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE             
GREATEST. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXITING 950-850              
MB CONV...EXPECT REMAINING SHRA/TSRA TO WEAKEN OR EXIT THE CWA BY               
03Z-06Z.                                                                        
WED...LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL                   
SUBSIDENCE DRYING WITH THE DRY SLOT AND AREA OF QVECTOR DIV WILL                
HAMPER DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA SO THAT LOW LEVEL CONV              
ALONG LAKE IN PREVAILING WRLY MAY TRIGGER SCT OR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.               
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MDLS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND              
HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE AREA WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED.                         
THU NIGHT...MDLS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF RETURN WAA/MOISTURE. THE FCST            
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH KEPT BEST LOW               
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FARTHER TO THE WEST.                                    
FRI-MON...THE FCST...IN LINE WITH THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z GFS AND ENS             
00Z GFS ENS MEAN...BRINGS IN POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SUN               
WITH THE UPPER LAKES AFFECTED BY WAA AND SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY            
OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...NOT PCPN WAS MENTIONED FOR FRI...BUT                    
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...PER ECMWF...IF BETTER MDLS             
CONSENSUS EMERGES WITH DETAILS OF MOISTURE AND THE WAA PATTERN. MDLS            
WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...THROUGH WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN                
TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH                  
THROUGH SRN CANADA EVENTUALLY BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT             
NIGHT OR SUN WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. TEMPS AOA SEASONAL              
AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN BUT RETURN TO MORE NORMAL            
CONDITIONS BY MON.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD EVEN WITH SHOWERS               
ARRIVING BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH PLACES. SHOWERS            
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH CONDITIONS STAYING LOW VFR FOR CIGS AT             
BOTH PLACES. COULD BE SOME THUNDER AT BOTH PLACES...BUT CONFIDENCE              
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HEDGED               
WITH CB GROUP FOR CLOUD COVER INSTEAD UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT            
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOTH SITES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD KEEP WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS            
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE HIGH             
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN                 
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN FROM                 
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO              
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN             
MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND                         
FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. WIND WILL AGAIN                 
INCREASE FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL              
QUEBEC...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER                    
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF               
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES. A LOW IS OVER THE MIDDLE AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM             
FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY.                                                                   
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE             
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST                   
ALBERTA MOVES TO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THESE MID               
LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE                
UNDER WARM ADVECTION. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...MOST MODELS              
SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z...MEANING THAT THE              
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG LOW                
LEVEL JET. NAM PROGGED 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION VALUES INCREASE             
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN CWA...SUGGESTING PRETTY              
GOOD MOISTURE RETURNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER ZONE OF                 
STRONG ADVECTION VALUES EXIST IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN                
IOWA. WESTERN ZONES ARE LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE                     
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR HAIL GIVEN                  
MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT. THE            
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 14000 FT. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD              
COVER FROM THE WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                  
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EAST WHERE                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING ALLOW FOR GREATER             
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
THE MANITOBA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO              
ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL              
APPROACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE            
FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN                    
MINNESOTA RESULTS IN SOME ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THERE            
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE ECMWF/NAM BLEND LOOKS BEST. NAM FOR             
WHATEVER MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NRN MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL SLIDE AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.                    
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE FORECAST                 
AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSUMED TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT                     
SURFACE BASED. ALL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS. IF OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS CORRECT AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE MCS ACTIVITY               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN U.P....THEN THERE WOULD BE AN             
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO HEAT UP AND THUS RESULT IN SOME            
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS EXIST TO TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...              
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000               
FT...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE SOME HAIL              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN U.P WHERE              
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...WITH              
CONCERN OF LOCATION OF MCS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 15-19C AT LEAST. WILL             
STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE END OF GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                     
TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS WERE NOT AS                 
SEVERE AS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MDL WAS NOT AS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER               
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THE SLOWER NAM SCENARIO...SUPPORTED              
BY THE UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WAS STILL PREFERRED.             
SO...WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH JUST MOVING INTO W UPPER MI AROUND                   
00Z...EXPECT CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CNTRL            
AND EAST CWA BTWN 00Z-06Z SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV AND QVECTOR               
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO             
SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG              
AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KT                             
RANGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE             
GREATEST. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXITING 950-850              
MB CONV...EXPECT REMAINING SHRA/TSRA TO WEAKEN OR EXIT THE CWA BY               
03Z-06Z.                                                                        
WED...LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL                   
SUBSIDENCE DRYING WITH THE DRY SLOT AND AREA OF QVECTOR DIV WILL                
HAMPER DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA SO THAT LOW LEVEL CONV              
ALONG LAKE IN PREVAILING WRLY MAY TRIGGER SCT OR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.               
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MDLS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND              
HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE AREA WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED.                         
THU NIGHT...MDLS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF RETURN WAA/MOISTURE. THE FCST            
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH KEPT BEST LOW               
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FARTHER TO THE WEST.                                    
FRI-MON...THE FCST...IN LINE WITH THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z GFS AND ENS             
00Z GFS ENS MEAN...BRINGS IN POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SUN               
WITH THE UPPER LAKES AFFECTED BY WAA AND SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY            
OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...NOT PCPN WAS MENTIONED FOR FRI...BUT                    
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...PER ECMWF...IF BETTER MDLS             
CONSENSUS EMERGES WITH DETAILS OF MOISTURE AND THE WAA PATTERN. MDLS            
WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...THROUGH WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN                
TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH                  
THROUGH SRN CANADA EVENTUALLY BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT             
NIGHT OR SUN WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. TEMPS AOA SEASONAL              
AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN BUT RETURN TO MORE NORMAL            
CONDITIONS BY MON.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY             
WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY AT             
KCMX WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AND GIVING MVFR CIGS TO KCMX BY                
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KSAW WILL HAVE SHOWERS LATE...BUT CONDITIONS             
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTIER AT KSAW IN               
THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD KEEP WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS            
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE HIGH             
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN                 
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN FROM                 
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO              
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN             
MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND                         
FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. WIND WILL AGAIN                 
INCREASE FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                        
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST               
TODAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE                  
REGION TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES                
THROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN            
THE MID 80S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY                  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE                 
HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS                  
REALLY NO WEATHER WITH THE FRONT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. MODELS REALLY              
DON/T PAINT MUCH EITHER EXCEPT FOR THE 4KM WRF WHICH DEVELOPS A FEW             
SHOWERS ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY             
THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE SO WE/RE GOING TO LEAVE THE GRIDS DRY TODAY.             
THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY              
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LI/S IN              
THE -4 TO -6C RANGE ON THE NAM. GFS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE LIKELY DUE            
TO THE VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IT CREATES. I HAVE A HARD TIME                   
BELIEVING WE/LL SEE SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 77F TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
NAM/S DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. LLJ SUPPORT IS WEST              
OF THE LAKE. IF STORMS FIRE ON THE WARM FRONT I SUSPECT MOST OF                 
THEM WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA. WE/LL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN TO COVER               
THE FRONT. A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE TRAILING COLD             
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 30KTS               
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THAT WILL BE WHEN INSTABILITY IS WEAKEST. SO WE/RE            
LIKELY TO SEE MORE STORMS...BUT PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. NO REAL                   
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AOB 40 KTS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
AS I DID YESTERDAY...SO I WILL DO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT IS... I              
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE GOING               
FORECAST. MODEL CONTINUITY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND                     
WEDNESDAY POOR AT BEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IT WOULD            
SEEM UNREASONABLE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
HAVING SAID THAT...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH              
TROUGHS NEAR BOTH COASTS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER WESTERN PLAINS. EVERY            
TIME A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER.            
WHEN THAT WAVE REACHES THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH... THE PATTERN BECOMES             
MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GRR CWA IS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE UPPER RIDGE...            
NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT IN THE FLOW.  THAT IS KEEPING MOST OF THE             
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND SOUTH OF HERE. THAT IS DUE TO THE NORTHERN              
STREAM JET BEING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET STAYING TO OUR            
SOUTH. I SEE NO BIG CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN FOR SOME TIME TO COME.              
ANY SYSTEMS THAT DO COME THROUGH WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE WEAK IN              
TERMS OF LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FOR             
THE MOST PART BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.                                    
I DO NOT BUY INTO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THE GFS BRINGS SOUTH ON                 
THURSDAY ANY MORE THAN I BELIEVE THE 12Z ECMWF COLD FRONT FRIDAY                
INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FEATURES ARE LARGE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS             
RUNS OR THE RUNS BEFORE THAT.                                                   
THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE... I HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT VERSION OF             
OUR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TO CONTINUE AS IS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                         
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HIGHER NEAR ANY OF THE                 
THUNDERSTORMS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT OR           
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1228 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 3500 TO 4000 FT AGL ARE FORMING ATTM ALONG            
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED FRONT FROM MKG TO              
LAN. EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE              
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH SOME            
LOWER VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT FOG...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT               
EXCEPT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LOWER THAN LAST              
NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDER BY 18Z TOMORROW...BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE              
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
FEW HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO THE DRY WX REGIME. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING            
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   93                                                                
LONG TERM:    WDM                                                               
MARINE:       MJS                                                               
AVIATION:     OSTUNO                                                            
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
126 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY.                                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT/TUE.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL              
QUEBEC...A RIDGE OVER ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHERN                   
SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE                    
SASKATCHEWAN LOW ARE APPROACHING THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS            
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOW IS              
OVER THE MIDDLE AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT               
AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                       
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN                   
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN DEEPENS. HIGH            
PRESSURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE AREA                     
BASICALLY REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THE COOL                
WATER EFFECT FROM LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...A LAKE               
BREEZE DAY IS LIKELY SO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING             
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY UNDER THIS RIDGE...WITH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO STAY BETWEEN 0.50 INCH AND 1               
INCH. WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND THE DRY AIR...NO                   
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD            
ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENCED UP TO THE NW...ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE UP             
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET WILL                 
LIKELY FORM... ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE RETURN FLOW                 
HELPS RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE            
CLOUDS/SMOKE SHOULD PREVENT MIXING SOME...BUT READINGS ARE STILL                
PLANNED TO REACH INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH WITH 850MB TEMPS OF               
12-15C. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER.                          
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT 00Z WILL               
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE THE POTENT                 
LOOKING SHRTWV OVER SW ALBERTA MOVES TO SE MANITOBA BY 12Z TUE. THE             
MOVEMENT OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES MEANS THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST               
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WARM ADVECTION.               
GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SHRTWV...MOST MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG             
SURFACE LOW (AROUND 1000MB) OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z...MEANING              
THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY                  
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. NAM PROGGED 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT OUT              
OF THE SW ACROSS MUCH OF MN AFTER 06Z...WHICH THEN VEER TO POINT                
TOWARDS UPPER MI. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION VALUES INCREASE ACROSS NRN            
MN INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P....SUGGESTING PRETTY            
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ZONE             
OF STRONG ADVECTION VALUES EXIST IN SRN MN AND NRN IA. EACH ZONE ARE            
LIKELY AREAS FOR TSTM INITIATION...AND THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE IN             
THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CWA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME CONCERN               
EXISTS FOR HAIL GIVEN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR              
VALUES OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS ARE A BIT                    
HIGH...AROUND 14000 FT. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF 5 PCT SEEMS REASONABLE.            
THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE TOO CAPPED TO ALLOW FOR PCPN. GIVEN                 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN...LOW TEMPS SHOULD               
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE            
EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING ALLOW              
FOR GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS INTO              
NRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO                   
APPROACH THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD BY 00Z. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
IN THE MODELS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NRN MN RESULTS IN SOME               
ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS               
FROM THE 00Z/18Z GFS...THE 00Z ECMWF...UKMET...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND            
NAM FOR WHATEVER MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
SLIDE AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE               
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS             
ASSUMED TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. ALL SURFACE BASED                 
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS. IF OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS CORRECT AND               
KEEPING MUCH OF THE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NRN               
U.P....THEN THERE WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO              
HEAT UP AND THUS RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. FUTURE                
FCST SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...SIMILAR            
CONDITIONS EXIST TO TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...              
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000               
FT...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE SOME HAIL              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN U.P WHERE              
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...WITH              
CONCERN OF LOCATION OF MCS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 15-19C AT LEAST. WILL             
STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE END OF GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                         
TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MARCHING                
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MODELS ACTUALLY                    
SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY 00Z THU LOOKING VERY SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFICATION.             
HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...                
PRIMARILY DUE TO ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IT HAS BACK WITH              
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...WHICH MERGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. FOLLOWED                
CLOSER TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUE...             
BE IT ELEVATED OR POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...SHOULD EXIT MUCH IF NOT              
ALL OF THE CWA TUE EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING               
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHICH               
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE NIGHT COMPARED TO MON                
NIGHT. FOR WED AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CWA. LAKE                 
BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS PROGGED AROUND 60) SHOULD RESULT IN SOME              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA               
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING HIGH TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH                
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE                        
EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AT THE                  
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH...THOUGH THERE               
STILL MAY BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS FOR WED NIGHT. LOWERED               
LOW TEMPS SOME FOR WED NIGHT GIVEN MEX GUIDANCE READINGS IN THE                 
UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD                
COVER THAN FORECAST...COULD SEE A NEED TO LOWER LOW TEMPS MORE FOR              
WED NIGHT SINCE A DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES OVER THE CWA ON THU...SO EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY WITH              
CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BOTH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE             
WISE. ONLY PCPN FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD IS IN THE SE CWA EARLY WED              
EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION.                                          
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR             
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN U.P....WITH THE 00Z                  
ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
AND NRN WI. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY             
WEATHER. TAMDAR SHOWING A DECK OF CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 3K              
FEET AT KSAW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CUMULUS LAYER                     
DEVELOPING AT KCMX AROUND 5K FEET. DUE TO WNW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN            
AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM WILDFIRES IN NRN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH              
CENTRAL CANADA...HAZY HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN. BUFKIT SUGGEST               
SHOWING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE             
WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING SO WILL PUT IN A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS OVER KCMX TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING A LITTLE                
LATER FOR KSAW SO WILL HOLD OFF A TIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY THERE.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT              
WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE            
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS               
WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE            
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY                 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ONCE               
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15               
KTS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
111 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ENHANCED CU                   
FIELD...BASED BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FT AGL...EXTENDING ALONG A SURFACE               
TROUGH FROM NEAR MTC TO MKG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG              
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE OFF THE ST CLAIR LAKE BREEZE MAY TOUCH              
OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF THIS            
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE DETROIT TAFS REMAINS FAR TO LOW TO INCLUDE             
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL                  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO                
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG               
THIS BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG/HAZE LATE              
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1132 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN PROVIDING               
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO DIMINISH                   
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS AND RAISE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE               
OR TWO.                                                                         
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING                  
FROM ROUGHLY LAKE ST CLAIR THROUGH THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA. DO NOT                
FORESEE THIS BOUNDARY SINKING TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
STRONG AFTERNOON INSULATION. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC DO PRODUCE A                   
LITTLE LATE AFTERNOON QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE              
LAKE ST CLAIR LAKE BREEZE. STILL ONLY EXPECTING MODEST AFTERNOON                
INSTABILITY...SB CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH OVERALL LACK              
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST ANY COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON                   
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST                     
GUIDANCE...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION              
TO ENCOMPASS THE M 59 CORRIDOR AND LAKE ST CLAIR VICINITY.                      
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
A TYPICAL LATE JULY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE MICHIGAN TODAY IN TERMS              
OF TEMPERATURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL MAKE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON IN THE DETROIT AREA DOWN TO THE OHIO BORDER BUT IT WILL BE            
DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE                
HURON SHORELINE TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.                            
DECIDED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY IN THE                  
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH FOUR COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON               
REASONABLE NAM12 AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT, IN ADDITION TO SOME HINTS            
OF QPF FROM THE GFS. EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER HALF OF               
THE 60S TO POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIGHT SW              
WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY SURFACE PARCEL OF 85/63 THEN YIELDS CAPE                 
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF A            
STORM DURING PEAK HEATING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT                    
FAVORABLE WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND SLOW STORM MOTION JUST                   
LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A DOWNBURST WIND GUST              
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30 MPH.                                                  
FARTHER NORTH, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON             
INTO THE THUMB AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINES WITH A              
LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS COOL FARTHER INLAND            
TOWARD THE TRI CITIES BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE 50S WILL KEEP                 
CONDITIONS LESS HUMID HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.                                   
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE              
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO VEER AROUND                 
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TUESDAY WITH A WEAK               
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY                   
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD AREA OF                
LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A                 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO                     
STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS ALONE IN SHOWING THE               
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.                       
INSTEAD WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF A NAM/ECMWF                  
BLEND. BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER                    
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NE IOWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO                
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF             
TRACKS THE DISSIPATING MCS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM SHOWS            
AN MCV DEVELOPING AND HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST               
MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE WARM              
FRONT WILL WORK TO ADVECT A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN               
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS              
THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH            
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING OVER 2500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. QUITE            
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM MCS             
WHICH WILL AFFECT BOTH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL              
FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER                     
WARM...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE...WILL              
NEED TO MONITOR STORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.                  
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE                  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT              
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING             
A COMFORTABLE DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                
LOWER HUMIDITY.                                                                 
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE                
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS TO                
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TO A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY                
ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                  
ALTHOUGH A LOW CHANCE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE                    
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FROM CENTRAL LAKE             
HURON INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL                 
QUICKLY BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE               
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY             
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.               
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL            
BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....KEC                                                                
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...MARINE                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                        
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST               
TODAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE                  
REGION TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES                
THROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN            
THE MID 80S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY                  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE                 
HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS                  
REALLY NO WEATHER WITH THE FRONT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. MODELS REALLY              
DON/T PAINT MUCH EITHER EXCEPT FOR THE 4KM WRF WHICH DEVELOPS A FEW             
SHOWERS ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY             
THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE SO WE/RE GOING TO LEAVE THE GRIDS DRY TODAY.             
THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY              
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LI/S IN              
THE -4 TO -6C RANGE ON THE NAM. GFS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE LIKELY DUE            
TO THE VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IT CREATES. I HAVE A HARD TIME                   
BELIEVING WE/LL SEE SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 77F TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
NAM/S DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. LLJ SUPPORT IS WEST              
OF THE LAKE. IF STORMS FIRE ON THE WARM FRONT I SUSPECT MOST OF                 
THEM WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA. WE/LL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN TO COVER               
THE FRONT. A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE TRAILING COLD             
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 30KTS               
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THAT WILL BE WHEN INSTABILITY IS WEAKEST. SO WE/RE            
LIKELY TO SEE MORE STORMS...BUT PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. NO REAL                   
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AOB 40 KTS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
AS I DID YESTERDAY...SO I WILL DO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT IS... I              
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE GOING               
FORECAST. MODEL CONTINUITY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND                     
WEDNESDAY POOR AT BEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IT WOULD            
SEEM UNREASONABLE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
HAVING SAID THAT...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH              
TROUGHS NEAR BOTH COASTS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER WESTERN PLAINS. EVERY            
TIME A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER.            
WHEN THAT WAVE REACHES THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH... THE PATTERN BECOMES             
MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GRR CWA IS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE UPPER RIDGE...            
NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT IN THE FLOW.  THAT IS KEEPING MOST OF THE             
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND SOUTH OF HERE. THAT IS DUE TO THE NORTHERN              
STREAM JET BEING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET STAYING TO OUR            
SOUTH. I SEE NO BIG CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN FOR SOME TIME TO COME.              
ANY SYSTEMS THAT DO COME THROUGH WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE WEAK IN              
TERMS OF LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FOR             
THE MOST PART BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.                                    
I DO NOT BUY INTO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THE GFS BRINGS SOUTH ON                 
THURSDAY ANY MORE THAN I BELIEVE THE 12Z ECMWF COLD FRONT FRIDAY                
INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FEATURES ARE LARGE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS             
RUNS OR THE RUNS BEFORE THAT.                                                   
THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE... I HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT VERSION OF             
OUR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TO CONTINUE AS IS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                         
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY INTO                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HIGHER NEAR ANY OF THE                 
THUNDERSTORMS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT OR           
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(707 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                        
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 10 AM ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
WILL STALL NEAR I-94 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS AN AREA OF SURFACE               
CONVERGENCE.  THIS AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ACT AS A                    
CATALYST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THOSE STORMS             
WILL ONLY EFFECT THE I-94 TAF SITES. ONCE THE SUN SETS SKIES WILL               
CLEAR BUT LIKE THIS MORNING... LIGHT WINDS AN INCREASING SURFACE DEW            
POINTS WILL BRING SOME FOG BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
FEW HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO THE DRY WX REGIME. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING            
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   93                                                                
LONG TERM:    WDM                                                               
MARINE:       MJS                                                               
AVIATION:     WDM                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1132 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN PROVIDING               
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO DIMINISH                   
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS AND RAISE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE               
OR TWO.                                                                         
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING                  
FROM ROUGHLY LAKE ST CLAIR THROUGH THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA. DO NOT                
FORESEE THIS BOUNDARY SINKING TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
STRONG AFTERNOON INSULATION. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC DO PRODUCE A                   
LITTLE LATE AFTERNOON QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE              
LAKE ST CLAIR LAKE BREEZE. STILL ONLY EXPECTING MODEST AFTERNOON                
INSTABILITY...SB CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH OVERALL LACK              
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST ANY COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON                   
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST                     
GUIDANCE...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION              
TO ENCOMPASS THE M 59 CORRIDOR AND LAKE ST CLAIR VICINITY.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 703 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE            
OHIO BORDER BY TONIGHT. ABOUT THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WITH THIS               
FEATURE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR                
DETROIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL              
GRADUALLY TURN THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY AND TOWARD THE EAST LATER                
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT IN FAVOR OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
A TYPICAL LATE JULY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE MICHIGAN TODAY IN TERMS              
OF TEMPERATURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL MAKE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON IN THE DETROIT AREA DOWN TO THE OHIO BORDER BUT IT WILL BE            
DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE                
HURON SHORELINE TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.                            
DECIDED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY IN THE                  
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH FOUR COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON               
REASONABLE NAM12 AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT, IN ADDITION TO SOME HINTS            
OF QPF FROM THE GFS. EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER HALF OF               
THE 60S TO POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIGHT SW              
WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY SURFACE PARCEL OF 85/63 THEN YIELDS CAPE                 
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF A            
STORM DURING PEAK HEATING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT                    
FAVORABLE WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND SLOW STORM MOTION JUST                   
LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A DOWNBURST WIND GUST              
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30 MPH.                                                  
FARTHER NORTH, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON             
INTO THE THUMB AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINES WITH A              
LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS COOL FARTHER INLAND            
TOWARD THE TRI CITIES BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE 50S WILL KEEP                 
CONDITIONS LESS HUMID HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.                                   
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE              
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO VEER AROUND                 
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TUESDAY WITH A WEAK               
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY                   
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD AREA OF                
LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A                 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO                     
STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS ALONE IN SHOWING THE               
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.                       
INSTEAD WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF A NAM/ECMWF                  
BLEND. BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER                    
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NE IOWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO                
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF             
TRACKS THE DISSIPATING MCS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM SHOWS            
AN MCV DEVELOPING AND HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST               
MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE WARM              
FRONT WILL WORK TO ADVECT A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN               
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS              
THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH            
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING OVER 2500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. QUITE            
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM MCS             
WHICH WILL AFFECT BOTH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL              
FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER                     
WARM...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE...WILL              
NEED TO MONITOR STORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.                  
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE                  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT              
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING             
A COMFORTABLE DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                
LOWER HUMIDITY.                                                                 
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE                
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS TO                
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TO A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY                
ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                  
ALTHOUGH A LOW CHANCE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE                    
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FROM CENTRAL LAKE             
HURON INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL                 
QUICKLY BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE               
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY             
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.               
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL            
BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....KEC                                                                
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
713 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT)...                                             
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...A TROUGH            
FROM SE CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH IN SW                  
CANADA. WITH UPPER MI IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND EASTERN                  
TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS               
THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE               
MANITOBA SOUTHWARD INTO MI. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE                   
(PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.68 INCHES AT INL AND 0.82 INCHES AT GRB PER            
00Z SOUNDINGS) IS PREVENTING PCPN. HOWEVER...SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL              
STRATUS CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA                 
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SE CANADA TROUGH. OTHER MID AND HIGH                
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER NRN MN...NW ONTARIO AND INTO MANITOBA WHICH             
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE ARE BEING CREATED THROUGH             
WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING ACROSS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE               
EAST PACIFIC...AND WARM ADVECTION NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 20C AT BIS            
AND 22C AT GGW...COMPARED TO 15C AT INL AND 14C AT CYQD. FARTHER                
WEST...A POTENT LOOKING SHRTWV IS PRESENT IN SW ALBERTA...WITH QUITE            
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE. LIKELY COOL MID LEVEL                 
TEMPS ARE PRESENT THERE...WHICH 00Z RAOBS AT CWEG AND CYLW DO                   
INDICATE WITH READINGS AROUND -15C. UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FIELD HARD TO             
TRACK AT NIGHT...BUT LAST NESDIS SMOKE ANALYSIS AT 02Z INDICATED                
SMOKE FROM NRN CALIFORNIA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SE INTO               
UPPER MI. SMOKE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA FIRES STAYING TO THE NORTH            
DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN THERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT/TUE.              
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO               
DROP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUE IN RESPONSE            
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SW CANADA PUSHING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE                  
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE AREA BASICALLY                    
REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THE COOL WATER EFFECT             
FROM LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...A LAKE BREEZE DAY IS              
PLANNED SO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING THIS                     
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY UNDER THIS RIDGE...WITH PRECIPITABLE             
WATER VALUES PROGGED TO STAY BETWEEN 0.50 INCH AND 1 INCH. WITH                 
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND THE DRY AIR...NO PCPN IS                      
EXPECTED. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA              
AS EVIDENCED UP TO THE NW...ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE UP IN THE UPPER               
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FORM...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE WRN U.P. WHERE RETURN FLOW HELPS RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE                
MID/UPPER 50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS/SMOKE SHOULD PREVENT               
MIXING SOME...BUT READINGS ARE STILL PLANNED TO REACH INTO THE 70S              
TO LOW 80S WITH WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12-15C. WARMEST READINGS                    
EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER.                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT 00Z WILL               
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE THE POTENT                 
LOOKING SHRTWV OVER SW ALBERTA MOVES TO SE MANITOBA BY 12Z TUE. THE             
MOVEMENT OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES MEANS THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST               
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WARM ADVECTION.               
GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SHRTWV...MOST MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG             
SURFACE LOW (AROUND 1000MB) OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z...MEANING              
THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY                  
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. NAM PROGGED 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT OUT              
OF THE SW ACROSS MUCH OF MN AFTER 06Z...WHICH THEN VEER TO POINT                
TOWARDS UPPER MI. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION VALUES INCREASE ACROSS NRN            
MN INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P....SUGGESTING PRETTY            
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ZONE             
OF STRONG ADVECTION VALUES EXIST IN SRN MN AND NRN IA. EACH ZONE ARE            
LIKELY AREAS FOR TSTM INITIATION...AND THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE IN             
THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CWA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME CONCERN               
EXISTS FOR HAIL GIVEN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR              
VALUES OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS ARE A BIT                    
HIGH...AROUND 14000 FT. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF 5 PCT SEEMS REASONABLE.            
THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE TOO CAPPED TO ALLOW FOR PCPN. GIVEN                 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN...LOW TEMPS SHOULD               
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE            
EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING ALLOW              
FOR GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS INTO              
NRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO                   
APPROACH THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD BY 00Z. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
IN THE MODELS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NRN MN RESULTS IN SOME               
ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS               
FROM THE 00Z/18Z GFS...THE 00Z ECMWF...UKMET...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND            
NAM FOR WHATEVER MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
SLIDE AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE               
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS             
ASSUMED TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. ALL SURFACE BASED                 
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS. IF OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS CORRECT AND               
KEEPING MUCH OF THE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NRN               
U.P....THEN THERE WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO              
HEAT UP AND THUS RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. FUTURE                
FCST SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...SIMILAR            
CONDITIONS EXIST TO TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...              
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000               
FT...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE SOME HAIL              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN U.P WHERE              
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...WITH              
CONCERN OF LOCATION OF MCS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 15-19C AT LEAST. WILL             
STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE END OF GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                         
TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MARCHING                
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MODELS ACTUALLY                    
SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY 00Z THU LOOKING VERY SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFICATION.             
HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...                
PRIMARILY DUE TO ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IT HAS BACK WITH              
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...WHICH MERGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. FOLLOWED                
CLOSER TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUE...             
BE IT ELEVATED OR POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...SHOULD EXIT MUCH IF NOT              
ALL OF THE CWA TUE EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING               
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHICH               
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE NIGHT COMPARED TO MON                
NIGHT. FOR WED AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CWA. LAKE                 
BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS PROGGED AROUND 60) SHOULD RESULT IN SOME              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA               
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING HIGH TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH                
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE                        
EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AT THE                  
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH...THOUGH THERE               
STILL MAY BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS FOR WED NIGHT. LOWERED               
LOW TEMPS SOME FOR WED NIGHT GIVEN MEX GUIDANCE READINGS IN THE                 
UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD                
COVER THAN FORECAST...COULD SEE A NEED TO LOWER LOW TEMPS MORE FOR              
WED NIGHT SINCE A DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES OVER THE CWA ON THU...SO EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY WITH              
CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BOTH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE             
WISE. ONLY PCPN FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD IS IN THE SE CWA EARLY WED              
EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION.                                          
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR             
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN U.P....WITH THE 00Z                  
ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
AND NRN WI. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY             
WEATHER. HIGH RANGE MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER EASTERN LAKE                          
SUPERIOR...AND HAVE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL.                
THEY SHOULD STILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF SAW. DUE TO WNW FLOW ALOFT                
BRINGING IN AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM WILDFIRES IN NRN CALIFORNIA            
AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...HAZY HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN.  WITH              
ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING -RA OR -TSRA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z            
IN OUR REGULAR FORECAST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF                     
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND SLOWLY LOWER CIG HEIGHS                  
INSTEAD.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT              
WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE            
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS               
WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE            
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY                 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ONCE               
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15               
KTS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
347 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...A TROUGH            
FROM SE CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH IN SW                  
CANADA. WITH UPPER MI IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND EASTERN                  
TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS               
THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE               
MANITOBA SOUTHWARD INTO MI. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE                   
(PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.68 INCHES AT INL AND 0.82 INCHES AT GRB PER            
00Z SOUNDINGS) IS PREVENTING PCPN. HOWEVER...SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL              
STRATUS CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA                 
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SE CANADA TROUGH. OTHER MID AND HIGH                
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER NRN MN...NW ONTARIO AND INTO MANITOBA WHICH             
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE ARE BEING CREATED THROUGH             
WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING ACROSS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE               
EAST PACIFIC...AND WARM ADVECTION NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 20C AT BIS            
AND 22C AT GGW...COMPARED TO 15C AT INL AND 14C AT CYQD. FARTHER                
WEST...A POTENT LOOKING SHRTWV IS PRESENT IN SW ALBERTA...WITH QUITE            
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE. LIKELY COOL MID LEVEL                 
TEMPS ARE PRESENT THERE...WHICH 00Z RAOBS AT CWEG AND CYLW DO                   
INDICATE WITH READINGS AROUND -15C. UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FIELD HARD TO             
TRACK AT NIGHT...BUT LAST NESDIS SMOKE ANALYSIS AT 02Z INDICATED                
SMOKE FROM NRN CALIFORNIA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SE INTO               
UPPER MI. SMOKE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA FIRES STAYING TO THE NORTH            
DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN THERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT/TUE.              
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO               
DROP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUE IN RESPONSE            
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SW CANADA PUSHING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE                  
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE AREA BASICALLY                    
REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THE COOL WATER EFFECT             
FROM LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...A LAKE BREEZE DAY IS              
PLANNED SO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING THIS                     
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY UNDER THIS RIDGE...WITH PRECIPITABLE             
WATER VALUES PROGGED TO STAY BETWEEN 0.50 INCH AND 1 INCH. WITH                 
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND THE DRY AIR...NO PCPN IS                      
EXPECTED. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA              
AS EVIDENCED UP TO THE NW...ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE UP IN THE UPPER               
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FORM...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE WRN U.P. WHERE RETURN FLOW HELPS RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE                
MID/UPPER 50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS/SMOKE SHOULD PREVENT               
MIXING SOME...BUT READINGS ARE STILL PLANNED TO REACH INTO THE 70S              
TO LOW 80S WITH WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12-15C. WARMEST READINGS                    
EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER.                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT 00Z WILL               
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE THE POTENT                 
LOOKING SHRTWV OVER SW ALBERTA MOVES TO SE MANITOBA BY 12Z TUE. THE             
MOVEMENT OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES MEANS THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST               
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WARM ADVECTION.               
GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SHRTWV...MOST MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG             
SURFACE LOW (AROUND 1000MB) OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z...MEANING              
THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY                  
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. NAM PROGGED 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT OUT              
OF THE SW ACROSS MUCH OF MN AFTER 06Z...WHICH THEN VEER TO POINT                
TOWARDS UPPER MI. 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION VALUES INCREASE ACROSS NRN            
MN INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P....SUGGESTING PRETTY            
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ZONE             
OF STRONG ADVECTION VALUES EXIST IN SRN MN AND NRN IA. EACH ZONE ARE            
LIKELY AREAS FOR TSTM INITIATION...AND THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE IN             
THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CWA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME CONCERN               
EXISTS FOR HAIL GIVEN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR              
VALUES OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS ARE A BIT                    
HIGH...AROUND 14000 FT. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF 5 PCT SEEMS REASONABLE.            
THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE TOO CAPPED TO ALLOW FOR PCPN. GIVEN                 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN...LOW TEMPS SHOULD               
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE            
EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING ALLOW              
FOR GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS INTO              
NRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO                   
APPROACH THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD BY 00Z. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
IN THE MODELS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NRN MN RESULTS IN SOME               
ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS               
FROM THE 00Z/18Z GFS...THE 00Z ECMWF...UKMET...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND            
NAM FOR WHATEVER MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
SLIDE AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE               
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS             
ASSUMED TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. ALL SURFACE BASED                 
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS. IF OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS CORRECT AND               
KEEPING MUCH OF THE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NRN               
U.P....THEN THERE WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO              
HEAT UP AND THUS RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. FUTURE                
FCST SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...SIMILAR            
CONDITIONS EXIST TO TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...              
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000               
FT...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE SOME HAIL              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN U.P WHERE              
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...WITH              
CONCERN OF LOCATION OF MCS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 15-19C AT LEAST. WILL             
STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE END OF GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                         
TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MARCHING                
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MODELS ACTUALLY                    
SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY 00Z THU LOOKING VERY SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFICATION.             
HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...                
PRIMARILY DUE TO ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IT HAS BACK WITH              
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...WHICH MERGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. FOLLOWED                
CLOSER TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUE...             
BE IT ELEVATED OR POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...SHOULD EXIT MUCH IF NOT              
ALL OF THE CWA TUE EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING               
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHICH               
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE NIGHT COMPARED TO MON                
NIGHT. FOR WED AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CWA. LAKE                 
BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS PROGGED AROUND 60) SHOULD RESULT IN SOME              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA               
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GOING HIGH TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH                
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW.                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE                        
EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AT THE                  
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH...THOUGH THERE               
STILL MAY BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS FOR WED NIGHT. LOWERED               
LOW TEMPS SOME FOR WED NIGHT GIVEN MEX GUIDANCE READINGS IN THE                 
UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD                
COVER THAN FORECAST...COULD SEE A NEED TO LOWER LOW TEMPS MORE FOR              
WED NIGHT SINCE A DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES OVER THE CWA ON THU...SO EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY WITH              
CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BOTH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE             
WISE. ONLY PCPN FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD IS IN THE SE CWA EARLY WED              
EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION.                                          
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR             
THU NIGHT AND FRI...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN U.P....WITH THE 00Z                  
ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTING WARM ADVECTION PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
AND NRN WI. WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY             
WEATHER. STILL LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THEY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT              
SOME COULD FILTER INTO SAW EARLY THIS MORNING. HAZY HIGH CLOUD                  
SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO WNW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN AN ELEVATED SMOKE             
LAYER FROM WILDFIRES IN NRN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT              
WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE            
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS               
WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE            
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY                 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR ONCE               
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15               
KTS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION                                                
.SYNOPSIS...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                        
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST               
TODAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE                  
REGION TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES                
THROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN            
THE MID 80S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY                  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE                 
HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS                  
REALLY NO WEATHER WITH THE FRONT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. MODELS REALLY              
DON/T PAINT MUCH EITHER EXCEPT FOR THE 4KM WRF WHICH DEVELOPS A FEW             
SHOWERS ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY             
THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE SO WE/RE GOING TO LEAVE THE GRIDS DRY TODAY.             
THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROGH THE CWA TUESDAY               
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LI/S IN              
THE -4 TO -6C RANGE ON THE NAM. GFS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE LIKELY DUE            
TO THE VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IT CREATES. I HAVE A HARD TIME                   
BELIEVING WE/LL SEE SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 77F TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
NAM/S DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. LLJ SUPPORT IS WEST              
OF THE LAKE. IF STORMS FIRE ON THE WARM FRONT I SUSPECT MOST OF                 
THEM WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA. WE/LL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN TO COVER               
THE FRONT. A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE TRAILING COLD             
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 30KTS               
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THAT WILL BE WHEN INSTABILITY IS WEAKEST. SO WE/RE            
LIKELY TO SEE MORE STORMS...BUT PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. NO REAL                   
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AOB 40 KTS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
AS I DID YESTERDAY...SO I WILL DO EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT IS... I              
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE GOING               
FORECAST. MODEL CONTINUITY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND                     
WEDNESDAY POOR AT BEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IT WOULD            
SEEM UNREASONABLE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
HAVING SAID THAT...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH              
TROUGHS NEAR BOTH COASTS AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER WESTERN PLAINS. EVERY            
TIME A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER.            
WHEN THAT WAVE REACHES THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH... THE PATTERN BECOMES             
MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GRR CWA IS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE UPPER RIDGE...            
NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT IN THE FLOW.  THAT IS KEEPING MOST OF THE             
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND SOUTH OF HERE. THAT IS DUE TO THE NORTHERN              
STREAM JET BEING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET STAYING TO OUR            
SOUTH. I SEE NO BIG CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN FOR SOME TIME TO COME.              
ANY SYSTEMS THAT DO COME THROUGH WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE WEAK IN              
TERMS OF LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FOR             
THE MOST PART BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.                                    
I DO NOT BUY INTO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THE GFS BRINGS SOUTH ON                 
THURSDAY ANY MORE THAN I BELIEVE THE 12Z ECMWF COLD FRONT FRIDAY                
INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FEATURES ARE LARGE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS             
RUNS OR THE RUNS BEFORE THAT.                                                   
THUS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE... I HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT VERSION OF             
OUR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TO CONTINUE AS IS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                          
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1152 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008)                                       
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD BASES                 
TONIGHT WILL BE AOA 8000 FEET AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS DECK ON MONDAY            
WILL BE AOA 3500 FEET. AZO HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME MVFR HAZE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WILL CARRY THAT OVERNIGHT... BUT IT IS             
LOCALIZED (PER SURROUNDING OBS) AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH               
LONGER IT WILL LINGER. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEXT              
24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH A 10 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY               
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(338 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008)                                       
FEW HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO THE DRY WX REGIME. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING            
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   93                                                                
LONG TERM:    WDM                                                               
MARINE:       93                                                                
AVIATION:     MEADE                                                             
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1227 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOCAL RADAR REMAINS ECHO FREE THIS EVENING WITH MOST ACTION OVER                
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. CELLS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI MAY CLIP OUR                  
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES HERE LATER THIS EVENING LOOKING AT TRAJECTORY             
OF MOVEMENT. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS AROUND VICHY AND OSAGE               
BEACH TO COVER THIS TENDENCY. OTHERWISE...LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE FOR            
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND                
HEAT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THIS                       
EVENING AND THEN THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY MUDDLE THE MESS MORE.                    
FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN NW MISSOURI                  
WILL LIKELY RIDE SOUTH ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NE KANSAS                
TO NE ARKANSAS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LITTLE CIN SHOULD ALLOW                
SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS THIS                
EVENING WITH CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION                
INTO SW MISSOURI. GFS BUFR SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY DRY LAYER THAT               
WOULD WORK AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...RUC/NAM AND THE                
12Z KSGF SOUNDING ARE NOT INDICATING SUCH A DRAMATIC DRY LAYER.                 
GOING WITH THE RUC/NAM SOUNDING YIELD PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.70                 
RANGE. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORM                         
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NE THIRD OF                 
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED THIS IN THE HWO BUT WILL NEED                
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT AND TRAJECTORY OF STORMS THIS EVENING.                   
SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON MONDAY AS THE                  
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS EXPANDS EAST A TOUCH IN TO THE REGION. THIS                
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 99 TO 103 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA                
AND MAKE FOR AN UNPLEASANT OUTDOOR DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE              
HOT...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NEARLY ANY STORM              
THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP IN CHECK SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HELD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORY AS                
WELL AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD                 
THOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                                    
FOR MID WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE              
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY AS COMPARED TO                        
YESTERDAYS RUNS. THIS 24 HOUR CONSISTENCY INCREASES CONFIDENCE                  
THAT THE OZARKS WILL SEE RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY                   
AS DOLLY IS ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SWINGS ACROSS              
THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR                  
WEDNESDAY NEARER THE MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 80 TO AROUND             
90. THE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER AN OVERCAST SKY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY AS DOLLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO             
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE OZARKS.                                                  
ONCE DOLLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD AND THE REGION BEGINS TO HEAT UP AGAIN.                
SO THE TEMPERATURE REPRIEVE AFFORDED BY DOLLY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.              
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A CONTINUING POSSIBILITY. A FEW SHORT                 
WAVE COULD MOVE OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AN PRODUCE A STORM              
COMPLEX OF TWO BUT WILL HAVE TO PLAY WAIT AND SEE ON THESE BEFORE               
GOING MUCH MORE THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.                          
HATCH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT           
24 HOURS...WITH STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE EDGE OF MID LEVEL              
CAPPING INVERSION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO. CLEAR SKIES AND                
DECREASING WINDS MAY ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET                    
PATCHY MORNING FOG GOING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED IF FOG DEVELOPS.     
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
259 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STORMS SLOW TO GET GOING TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...MOST                  
LIKELY DUE TO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GETTING WORKED OVER THE                      
PREVIOUS DAY AND LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.                            
REGARDLESS...LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN OVER THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE              
THE RUIDOSO AREA AS PW/S REMAIN HIGH DOWN THAT WAY. ANY TYPE OF                 
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL EXASPERATE ALREADY WET CONDITIONS BUT TO THE              
RANDOM NATURE TO CELL FORMATION...DONT WANT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD              
WATCH FOR LINCOLN COUNTY. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR THE REST OF                   
TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. IR OVERLAID                  
WITH RUC VORTICITY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE FOUR CORNERS               
AREA AND WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH                    
TRANSLATING THIS FEATURE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWFA. BEST                       
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND              
FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. INHERITED POPS REFLECTED THIS                 
BUT ADJUSTED THEM SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS AND                       
ANTICIPATIONS. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLATED DUE TO THE                  
ENHANCED SHEAR FROM THE UPPER WAVE.                                             
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LESSENING COVERAGE                  
ACROSS THE EAST AND TRANSFERRING TO THE WEST AS THE UPPER HIGH                  
SETS UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH           
THIS ASSESSMENT ALTHOUGH GFS LESS BULLISH ON OVERALL THUNDERSTORM               
COVERAGE THAN NAM. REALLY DEPENDS ON THE DRIER AIR INTRUSION                    
FOLLOWING THE TRANSLATING WAVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE WILL NEED                
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM EASTERN THE PLAINS...GULF              
OR BAJA/SONORA MEXICO BEFORE WE CAN GET BACK INTO WHAT WE HAVE                  
HAD THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL RECYCLE                      
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH.                         
ONE WILDCARD CONCERNS A BACK DOOR FRONT THAT IS DEPICTED TO FOCUS               
SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND                    
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILDCARD WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN TRANSFER                  
WESTWARD UNDER A GAP WIND SCENARIO ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IF              
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED WESTWARD...THEN MAY DELAY                 
HOW MUCH DRYING OUT OCCURS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH. ADJUSTED                  
POPS A BIT DUE TO STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AND EXPECTATIONS                 
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH. OVERALL THOUGH...INHERITED GRIDS                     
LOOKED GOOD. WONT TOTALLY BUY OFF ON SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN HOPES                
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM NEXT 24 HOURS WITH             
THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED BRIEF INSTANCES OF                
THUNDERSTORM CREATED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND                    
POSSIBLY RAIN REDUCED VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN              
THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST SHOULD             
CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
EVEN FEWER TSRA EXPECTED MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY. CB IN TAFS WITHOUT              
TS OR VCTS INDICATES LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND                       
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THEY MAY DEVELOP.                                        
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE             
CENTER ALOFT SHOULD WOBBLE AROUND SW NM/SE AZ...WHICH WILL ALLOW                
DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. LOWER MIN RH DAYTIME AND SLIGHTLY POORER              
RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED                
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO THU OR FRI...THEN MAY INCREASE BY OR JUST AFTER             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  62  95  62  98 /  10  10  10  10              
GALLUP..........................  55  90  56  92 /  10  10  10  10              
GRANTS..........................  58  89  55  91 /  10  10  10  10              
GLENWOOD........................  62  94  60  97 /  10  10  10  10              
CHAMA...........................  46  82  47  83 /  30  20  10  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  87  57  88 /  20  20  20  20              
RED RIVER.......................  47  77  43  79 /  30  20  20  20              
TAOS............................  53  89  51  89 /  30  20  20  20              
SANTA FE........................  57  90  60  89 /  20  20  20  20              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  91  60  92 /  20  10  20  10              
ESPANOLA........................  59  96  58  95 /  20  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  93  68  94 /  10  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  92  66  93 /  10  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  92  63  93 /  10  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  97  67  97 /  10  10  10  10              
SOCORRO.........................  64  93  62  93 /  10  10  10  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  83  53  86 /  10  10  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  89  55  89 /  20  20  20  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  93  60  93 /  10  10  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  56  83  54  84 /  20  20  20  20              
RATON...........................  57  88  54  90 /  40  40  10  30              
LAS VEGAS.......................  58  85  56  88 /  30  40  20  40              
ROY.............................  63  87  62  90 /  30  30  10  20              
CLAYTON.........................  64  92  64  95 /  40  30  10  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  61  95 /  30  30  30  20              
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  97  67  99 /  30  30  20  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  94  66  94 /  20  20  40  20              
CLOVIS..........................  67  96  67  96 /  20  20  40  20              
PORTALES........................  68  96  68  98 /  20  20  40  20              
ROSWELL.........................  69  98  70  98 /  20  20  40  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50/43                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
138 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT              
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORM. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY                
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO            
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE              
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.               
ANOTHER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND            
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM THE                
OTTAWA VALLEY TO CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO AT 0130Z...EMBEDDED WITHIN A              
MORE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIG FROM THE                   
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY              
ON MONDAY. SEVERAL MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST BY MODEL                   
GUIDANCE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH               
MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE                
FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE                  
REGION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW/MID LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT 40+KNOT                 
700MB SPEED MAX.                                                                
A FEW OF THESE STORMS...INCLUDING ONE IN NORTHERN CAYUGA/SW OSWEGO              
COUNTIES AND THE STORM OVER LAKE ONTARIO OFFSHORE OF ROCHESTER HAVE             
COME VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING SEVERE. SPC OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS                  
SUGGESTING A RATHER MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH            
SBCAPE OF 500-1000J/KG. WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING NOW UNDERWAY THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND EXPECT UPDRAFT                    
INTENSITY TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                     
TWO...AND EFFECTIVE STORM INFLOW PARCELS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME                   
ELEVATED OFF THE SURFACE AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE               
THIS EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS ALSO RATHER WEAK WITH THE STRONGER                 
WESTERLIES DISPLACED NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHOULD               
PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH CURRENT STRONG                  
STORMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.                                               
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING              
FROM EASTERN GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR WINDSOR ONTARIO. SHORT TERM MODEL             
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT AND THE                
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE REGION...EXPECT MORE                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HAVE                   
CONTINUED WITH SAME BASIC IDEA IN THE GRIDS/ZFP...WITH THE GREATEST             
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE                   
ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MID               
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG               
THE NY/PA STATE LINE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY AND                 
CLEAR SKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT             
WILL BE RATHER COOL AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...THE                
LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 50S WITH LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND               
THE VALLEYS NEAR THE FINGER LAKES. TUESDAY WILL HAVE ABUNDANT                   
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW 80S.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS            
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
WEDNESDAY. I WENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP BASED             
MORE ON MEX AND SREF THAN USING THE GMOS POPS AND QPF...IT LOOKED               
MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE MORE QPF DURING WED AFTERNOON WHEN IT                    
INTERCEPTS MORE WARMTH DURING THE DAY. A SECOND WAVE MOVES ALONG THE            
WEST TO EAST EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL              
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO             
REGION...THEN RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY                  
THROUGH SATURDAY, DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MAX AND MIN                
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES               
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO             
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. GFS DEVELOPS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE                  
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SURFACE              
LOW LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE GFS QPF IS WAY OVERDONE AT 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND MAKES              
THIS 12Z GFS RUN A LITTLE SUSPECT...BUT WILL STILL GO WITH AT LEAST             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT A                 
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE               
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED                   
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH               
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. THIS WEAK SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE              
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND FORCING                
FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE BEST DIURNAL              
HEATING PERIOD. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE                
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT WITH A                     
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                 
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                      
SOUTHERN TIER AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.                                            
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND                 
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION...WILL JUST USE VCSH QUALIFIERS FOR NOW WITH            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION.              
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND AMEND AS                
NECESSARY.                                                                      
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUESDAY...VFR.                                                                  
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSRA.                                      
THURSDAY...VFR.                                                                 
FRIDAY...VFR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CHANNELLING OF SOUTHWEST WINDS UP LAKE ERIE HAVE DEVELOPED 3 TO 5               
WAVES...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS                      
EVENING...THEN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. ON              
LAKE ONTARIO WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT             
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WCH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
SHORT TERM...WCH                                                                
LONG TERM...WCH                                                                 
AVIATION...SAGE/HITCHCOCK                                                       
MARINE...WCH                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
247 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA                   
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL                
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND A WEAK COLD                
FRONT...ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING                   
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...                                                          
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN TRYING TO PROPAGATE VIA                
SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NORTHWARD BUT HAS NOW BUCKED UP                   
AGAINST THE STABLE TROF IN THE FOOTHILLS AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS                 
ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. MEANWHILE...THE                    
CONVECTION THAT CROSSED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAS EFFECTIVELY                  
FIZZLED AS IT MADE IT TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS WELL.                    
HAVE SEEN SOME RECOVERY IN THE AIRMASS IN THE WEST AS PROGGED BY RUC            
SOUNDINGS...AND EXPECT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXIMA                   
CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...FEEL IT PRUDENT TO HAVE A               
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT INCLUDE              
THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN TIER AS WE WILL HAVE A RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE             
SOUTHEAST AND PROBABLY SOME OUTFLOW INTERACTION FROM THE ONGOING                
CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.                                                
FOR TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                
AGAIN, MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY DEPICTING WEAK CONFLUENCE ALONG FEATURE.             
HOWEVER WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SURFACE LIFTED             
INDICES NEAR MINUS 3...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED                     
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30% POP.                                     
TEMP GUIDANCE VARIES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH THE DRIER MAV MUCH WARMER            
THAN WETTER ETA MOS. WENT WITH THICKNESS/TEMP SCHEME WHICH YIELD                
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH FULL TO PARTIAL SUN. IF CLOUDS MORE               
EXTENSIVE (PER NAM)...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED UP BEING ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES COOLER. -MLM                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:                                                  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WED MORNING...WITH              
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL BY AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE            
NO APPRECIABLE WARMING FCST IN THE MID-LEVELS IN ASSOC/W THE                    
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. SFC TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA              
DURING THE DAY WED...IN ASSOC/W A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING                
EAST ALONG THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH               
THE TROUGHING OVER NC THAN THE GFS...THOUGH. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE              
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.75-2.00"                
RANGE AND UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN               
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90S. LOOKING              
AT THE GFS/NAM UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WED AFTERNOON...ANY SHORTWAVE                
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SO               
UPPER LEVEL HELP LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE POPS (30%) ON              
WED AFTERNOON SINCE THIS IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND THE AIRMASS                
LOOKS REASONABLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC/W THE             
SFC TROUGH AS A FOCUS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...            
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S...BASED ON THICKNESSES. CANNOT RULE OUT A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WED NIGHT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS             
AND SFC TROUGHING STILL ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF              
CONVECTION SHOULD BE UPSTREAM OF THE AREA OVER THE TN VALLEY IN                 
ASSOC/W OUR NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY 12Z THU MORNING. LOW TEMPS            
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                                  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                                                        
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL OVER THE                        
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THURSDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT SHEARED OUT                
SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE               
AFT/EVE. ADDITIONALLY...WE SHOULD HAVE A SHARP SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE            
AREA IN ASSOC/W LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...IN ADDITION TO PWAT               
VALUES AROUND 2" AND SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG                
RANGE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. AS SUCH...HAVE DECIDED              
TO KEEP A HIGH CHANCE (50%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA            
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO                 
DECREASE FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY                  
MORNING AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST/ROCKIES BEGINS             
TO NOSE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD            
THE COAST. THE NAM DELAYS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA A BIT                
COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH              
THROUGH CENTRAL NC IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING...AND                
THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN THE EAST                   
THROUGH ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL NOON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT             
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND DURING THE DAY             
FRIDAY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA             
FROM THE WEST...WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY. ANY                  
PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFT/EVE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE               
COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE SHUNTED            
SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK            
REASONABLE. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT AROUND CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WARMER IN THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH                
INCREASING THICKNESSES. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
THE CHANCE FOR WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INCREASING BY THE              
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE               
SHOWING THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDING OVER               
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...FURTHER STRENGTHENING              
OVER THE AREA ON SUN/MON. THE LATEST 00Z MEXMOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING             
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON SAT/SUN/MON...WHICH SAYS                  
SOMETHING SINCE THIS MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCT IS HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARDS             
CLIMATOLOGY AT THAT TIME RANGE...AND AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR            
ARE AROUND 89F. AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW HIGH TEMPS INCREASING INTO             
THE MID 90S BY SUN/MON (94-97F RANGE). THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF            
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE W/REGARDS TO THE EXACT POSITION AND              
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE             
HOW HOT WE GET. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A VERY                 
SIMILAR PATTERN... AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW HIGH TEMPS             
AT LEAST IN THE ABOVE-NORMAL RANGE...IN THE MID 90S. WITH STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY WARM/DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY                   
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ON SAT/SUN/MON WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF               
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT            
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RESULTING FROM PROPAGATING OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS                
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER                     
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. THEREFORE...NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN IS             
ANTICIPATED AT GSO/RDU THROUGH 08Z AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT                 
LOWER CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY BROKEN MID LEVEL                 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.                
THIS WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE            
SITES OF RWI/FAY... SO WILL ONLY GO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT                
MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.                                                        
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TODAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DEEP               
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THUS             
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE HIGHER. OVERALL...FORCING IS VERY                
WEAK IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH ONLY A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT                
ALOFT. THEREFORE...COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO             
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF                     
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH                   
PERHAPS SOME SUNRISE FOG AT RDU/RWI/FAY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                      
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP            
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH            
AND SFC BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...MLM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
AVIATION...JFB                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
935 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL HOLD STATIONARY OVER COASTAL NORTH                   
CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY... THEN SHIFT BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE                  
PIEDMONT TONIGHT... WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS                  
WILL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...                                                          
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN TRYING TO PROPAGATE VIA                
SUCESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NORTHWARD BUT HAS NOW BUCKED UP AGAINST            
THE STABLE TROF IN THE FOOTHILLS AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO             
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION THAT                
CROSSED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAS EFFECTIVELY FIZZLED AS IT MADE IT            
TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS WELL.                                          
HAVE SEEN SOME RECOVERY IN THE AIRMASS IN THE WEST AS PROGGED BY RUC            
SOUNDINGS...AND EXPECT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXIMA                   
CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...FEEL IT PRUDENT TO HAVE A               
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT INCLUDE              
THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN TIER AS WE WILL HAVE A RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE             
SOUTHEAST AND PROBABLY SOME OUTFLOW INTERACTION FROM THE ONGOING                
CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.                                                
FOR TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                
AGAIN, MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY DEPICTING WEAK CONFLUENCE ALONG FEATURE.             
HOWEVER WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SURFACE LIFTED             
INDICES NEAR MINUS 3...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED                     
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30% POP.                                     
TEMP GUIDANCE VARIES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH THE DRIER MAV MUCH WARMER            
THAN WETTER ETA MOS. WENT WITH THICKNESS/TEMP SCHEME WHICH YIELD                
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH FULL TO PARTIAL SUN. IF CLOUDS MORE               
EXTENSIVE (PER NAM)...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED UP BEING ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES COOLER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...                                                          
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DROP             
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC BY TUESDAY EVENING... AND THE HIGHER               
POPS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HEADING OUT              
OF THE CWA... WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOW A                    
SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER... WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE                  
SURFACE-850 MB TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE POTENTIAL            
HIGH MODEL TIMING ERRORS WITHIN THIS VERY WEAK FLOW REGIME... WILL              
HOLD ONTO ISOLATED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... ON THE HIGHER END              
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES            
150% OF NORMAL. LOWS 68-74 LOOK REASONABLE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.            
FOR WEDNESDAY: IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENING               
AND SHIFTING OFFSHORE... VAGUELY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC MID                 
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC REGION AND ITS                
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS MAKE FOR AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FORECAST. IT            
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HOLD NEARLY              
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE                   
SYNOPTIC FRONT HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH VA INTO NE TN AND BACK                 
THROUGH WRN KY. HOWEVER THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF                
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GFS BUILDS A PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARLY 2.25             
INCHES THROUGH THE CWA... WHEREAS THE NAM SHUNTS THIS HIGHER                    
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ONLY NEAR            
AN INCH IN WESTERN NC. BOTH MODELS CONFINE THE MEASURABLE PRECIP TO             
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST WITH A LIFTED INDEX            
NEAR -4. WHILE THIS IS THE MOST PROBABLE SPOT TO SEE CONVECTION                 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING... WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORCED                 
ASCENT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THESE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT... WILL KEEP A              
SMALL PRECIP CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE TOO. CLOUDS SHOULD BE             
A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH INCREASING                  
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES                   
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH IS CLOSE TO GFS MOS                
GUIDANCE... HOWEVER WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY              
AND FACTORING IN THE TENDENCY IN RECENT WEEKS FOR THE GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE TO BE TOO HIGH ON THESE ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAYS... HAVE                  
TRENDED DOWN A BIT FROM THESE NUMBERS... TO 92-96.                              
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER             
CENTRAL ONTARIO WOBBLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC...                
RECARVING A MEAN TROUGH TO THE SSW DOWN THE WEST SLOPES OF THE                  
APPALACHIANS. THE REMNANT MOISTURE AND VORTICITY FROM DOLLY IS                  
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH... REACHING VA/NC             
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OF COURSE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY                    
REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING... AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY               
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE GFS... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY             
EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO OVER 6 C/KM... NAM-INDICATED SURFACE CAPE             
RISING TO 2000+ J/KG... AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING 170% OF                  
NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO TIMING IS PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE                  
LATEST NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT TO THE 42-50%                 
RANGE INTO THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT... BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...                 
WHICH SHOULD NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND PRODUCE              
MILD LOWS OF 69-74 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE HIGHLY VARIED               
AMONG THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY BUT LEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... SO              
WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL... 88-93... GIVEN THE WARM               
AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DROPS TO               
OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A TAPERING OFF OF                
RAIN CHANCES NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING CLOSE ON ITS              
HEELS. LOWS 67-73. -GIH                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...                                                          
FOR FRIDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL            
PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NC BY FRIDAY MORNING... BRINGING AN END TO RAIN             
CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... WHERE A LOW CHANCE               
POP WILL BE RETAINED NEAR THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS             
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN               
THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING TO BUILD IN. HIGHS 89-93.                             
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND IS FOR A STRONG HOT RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF              
THE COUNTRY... WITH A BAGGY TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH                
COASTAL NC INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE             
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH                 
SUNDAY... WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT MOST INDICATED BOTH                 
AFTERNOONS. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS BOTH DAYS... AROUND 90-95. THE            
GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE SLIDING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXPANDING IN A               
WEST-TO-EAST FASHION... WHICH SHOULD ENSURE THE CONTINUED DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER INTO NC. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL... 90-95.              
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 830 PM...                                                                 
BAND OF SHOWERS WEAKENING AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT            
AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. NOT YET COMPLETELY CONVINCED THERE WILL              
BE MUCH MORE THAN VFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS BY               
THE TIME THIS BAND REACHES HIGHWAY ONE. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH                 
HELPING TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES FLATTENS AND WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE              
TUESDAY TO BE NO MORE THAN ABOUT THIRTY PERCENT FROM MIDNIGHT                   
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.                            
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF             
ROCKY MOUNT AND FAYETTEVILLE WHERE MVFR FOG OR HAZE IS POSSIBLE                 
UNTIL MID MORNING.                                                              
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER               
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS. WILL SEE OCCASIONS               
WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS COVERAGE WILL BE 50 PERCENT.                            
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE              
OHIO VALLEY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...MLM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
739 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION THIS WEEK. THE                  
FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE SEA                 
BREEZE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT EACH                      
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE            
STALLING NEAR THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE              
SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHEAST OF A TROUGH WHICH MOVED INTO OUR LOCAL AREA            
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF               
SEA BREEZE AND TROUGH BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN ACROSS                 
INLAND AREAS WITH SHARP GRADIENT EXISTING BETWEEN INLAND DEWPOINT               
TEMPS WHICH DROPPED DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND COASTAL AREAS              
WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MAINTAINED THEMSELVES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.             
RUC SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY OVER GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG                   
COUNTIES WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS                 
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH K INDEX VALUES DECREASING TO THE TEENS AND            
CAPE AND LI VALUES TRENDING TOWARD LESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH            
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE DOWN TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR              
LESS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT                   
CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS                                      
AS FOR TONIGHT SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE BACK INLAND WITH RETURN OF            
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INLAND. PUSHED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID               
70S MOST PLACES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS             
WHERE PCP OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE                  
AREA...BUT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH...THEREFORE WENT MORE WITH                  
DIURNAL TREND OF BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OFF SHORE IN THE COASTAL             
WATERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE            
PIEDMONT TROUGH MAINTAINING ITSELF INLAND WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.  MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER LEVEL              
SUPPORT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES BUT THERE               
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY            
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.  INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO               
OCCUR ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH             
DAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH MINS               
EACH NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...5H TROFFING OVER THE E COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF            
THE PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT/SFC TROF OFF THE COAST.            
BEST GUESS ON TIMING AT THIS POINT IS LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SEA BREEZE AND                    
PIEDMONT TROF BOTH EXPECTED TO GENERATE CONVECTION. HOLDING ONTO LOW            
CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.                    
FRONT WILL NOT GET VERY FAR OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING OUT SAT               
INTO SUN. GFS DEVELOPS 3 SEPARATE WAVES/LOWS ALONG THE                          
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THINK THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF              
ONE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN GOMEX IS THE RIGHT SOLUTION. THE LOW            
MOVES WNW AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS W. 7H RIDGE                
ALSO BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP THE FRONT                    
OFFSHORE WITH DRIER AIRMASS AND MID LEVEL CAPPING. DROPPED POPS TO              
SLIGHT CHANCE SAT AND BEYOND. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /0Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT FROM THUNDERSTORMS              
THAT FORMED EARLIER TODAY.  BY 06Z MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS               
WILL SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS TN AND WESTERN             
NC.  SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z...WITH THE            
BEST BET COMING AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT                   
TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...TO NEAR CALM INLAND.                             
ON TUESDAY OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE...ESPECIALLY                  
INLAND.  THE 18Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON A H5                  
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TN/KY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING            
SOME PVA TO THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 17Z TUESDAY...INCREASING THE             
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND            
LIFT WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE             
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.                                                              
CLOSER TO THE COAST ASIDE FROM SOME CU ALONG THE RESULTANT SEA                  
BREEZE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  THE H5 TROF MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES            
BY AFTERNOON.  THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS              
NAM 1000-500 MB MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW AN AXIS OF DRY AIR RIGHT                 
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
AS FAR AS WINDS GO TUESDAY THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT               
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL              
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE                
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.                                              
OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF ALONG WITH THE DAILY               
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION                
EACH AFTERNOON.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE                
ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. IFR                    
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE CONDITIONS WILL             
BE BRIEF IN DURATION. VISIBILITY CONCERNS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO DAWN IN             
AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE DAY BEFORE. MOST OF THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE OF              
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY MORNING WILL BE VFR.                                        
$$                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LINGERING TROUGH OVER            
COASTAL CAROLINAS WHICH PUSHES BACK INLAND AND MAINLY REMAINS AS                
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA OF THE CAROLINAS.                 
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP UP A SWLY FLOW OVER THE             
COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE PINCHES GRADIENT A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT              
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE                
WILL MAINTAIN S TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RUNNING 15            
KT OR LESS.  SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FT OR LESS.                              
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SRLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH             
WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROF MAY CROSS THE WATERS SAT. FRONT/TROF IS                
WEAK...SO IMPACT ON GRADIENT WILL BE LIMITED WITH SPEEDS INCREASING             
BY ONLY A FEW KTS. POST FRONT WINDS WOULD BECOME NRLY BUT TIMING OF             
FRONT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...31                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...31                                                                 
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...HEDEN                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT FCST. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON               
THE SLGHT CHC TSRA WE HAVE GOING FOR THE WRN CWA AFT 06Z...BUT                  
LATEST RUC13/NAM12 WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE KPIR                  
AREA BY 12Z WITH THE WAA REGIME SETTING UP OUT WEST. GIVEN THAT                 
BOTH ARE SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY 7H THETA-E RIDGES MOVING INTO THE               
MO RIVER COUNTIES...CAN`T REALLY ARGUE AGAINST IT. CURRENT TEMPS                
ALSO LOOK GOOD...WITH HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTING ONLY NEEDED. ALSO                   
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EAST...AND                
PLANNED WAA MID-CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST. NO PLANNED                   
UPDATE TO WORDED ZONE FCST ATTM.                                                
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                    
PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN QUANDARY THROUGH THE                 
MEDIUM RANGE. FOR TNT SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH                  
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SOME ENERGY DOES               
COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HINT AT SOME ACCAS THUNDER OVER              
WESTERN OR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ADVECTS                 
BACK NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA VIA LLJ. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS GOING OVER THESE REGIONS. THEN FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY SFC                
LOW FORMS OVER CENTRAL PART OF STATE WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY                 
DEVELOPING EAST FROM THIS LOW INTO MINNESOTA. ANYTIME A WARM FRONT              
IS HANGING AROUND IT IS HARD TO IGNORE POTENTIAL PCPN CHANCES.                  
HOWEVER...A BIG PROBLEM COULD BE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT                  
GRADUALLY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...THUS PROVIDING SOME                     
CAPPING. NONETHELESS FEEL IT IS STILL A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP POPS IN               
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE CONVECTIVE                    
INHIBITION BOTH LATE WED AND LATE THUR WILL BE THE WEAKEST. MODELS              
ALSO HINT AT A COUPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES POSSIBLY DROPPING                    
THROUGH OR INTO THAT AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED                 
WARM FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH IT HANGING OUT                
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH AN                  
EASTERLY SFC FLOW AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. H85                  
TEMPS HEADED WELL INTO THE 20+ C RANGE BEG FOR SOME NEAR 100                    
DEGREE READINGS AT KPIR. HOWEVER RECENT RAINS HAVE GREENED UP THE               
REGION IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS WHICH IS HELPING HOLD DOWN                      
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. SO...BECAUSE OF THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A TAD               
UNDER VERY WARM MAV PROGNOSTICATIONS.                                           
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS UPPER                 
FLOW DOMINATED BY FOUR CORNERS HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST. DESPITE THE               
TRANSITION...UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH SERIES OF WAVES...THE                
MOST POTENT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE NORTHER TIER CONUS                          
SATURDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STABILIZING...WITH LOW TEENS               
TO START PERIOD...AND INTO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY. THE RESULT...AN UNEVENTFUL     
SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE MARKED BY MERE CHANGE IN HUMIDITY/WIND                   
DIRECTION. MAIN EFFECT IS FORECAST MAX TEMPS                                    
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH MEX GUIDANCE EXCEEDING CENTURY MARK IN                   
WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND                      
CONTINUED GREEN CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY                      
UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE THOSE DAYS.                 
SLIGHTLY COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES ARE LESS INHIBITING SUNDAY                      
INTO START OF NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE FRONT NOW                 
EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO THE START OF                
NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS DAYS 5 THRU 7 TO SLIGHT/CHANCE.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.              
SOME FEW-SCT120 CONDS MAY DEVELOP AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z. P6SM VSBYS               
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH DURATION OF VALID TAFS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TDK                                                                
LONG TERM...CONNELLY                                                            
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TRAILING LINE OF OVERNIGHT MCS IS SLOWLY EXITING THE FA...EXPECT                
IT TO BE EAST OF STONEWALL COUNTY BY AROUND 1100 AM. HAVE LOWERED/REMOVED       
POPS FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THROUGH 18Z/1 PM. FAIRLY THICK CLOUD          
SHIELD SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND              
HAVE CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FOR THAT               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING OFF FROM THE 101-105 RANGE DOWN TO                
ABOUT 98-101.                                                                   
SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW SURGE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE               
OKLAHOMA AND NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 10 AM. HAVE UPDATED THE WIND                   
GRIDS WITH LATEST RUC/NAM GUIDANCE THAT SHOW THIS NORTHERLY WIND                
SHIFT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FA TODAY /LEADING SURGE HAS ALREADY               
GONE THROUGH THE WESTERN SPLNS/. THE RUC REDEVELOPS CONVECTION                  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES                
WHEREAS THE LATEST WRF/NAM INDICATES DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE BIT LATER             
AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.                                        
FINALLY...THE VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM                
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS. CLOUD              
COVER SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DESTABILIZATION THIS                            
AFTN...CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH                  
THIS IN MIND WILL RETAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION AND WILL WATCH               
FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS WITH BEST HEATING               
CO-LOCATED WITH LIFT FROM APPROACHING BOUNDARIES PLUS ANY RESIDUAL              
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM OUR EARLIER STORMS.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        93  66  94  66  95 /  20  30  20  10   0                          
TULIA         93  67  92  67  94 /  30  30  20  10   0                          
PLAINVIEW     95  68  93  68  93 /  30  30  20  10   0                          
LEVELLAND     98  69  95  70  96 /  20  30  20  10   0                          
LUBBOCK       98  71  95  71  95 /  30  30  20  20   0                          
DENVER CITY   97  71  98  71  96 /  20  30  30  20   0                          
BROWNFIELD    97  70  96  71  95 /  20  30  30  20   0                          
CHILDRESS     99  73  95  72  98 /  30  30  20  20   0                          
SPUR          98  70  96  73  96 /  20  30  30  20  10                          
ASPERMONT    101  72  97  74  98 /  30  30  30  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1122 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE THE DISCUSSION FOR THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF FORECAST BELOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE             
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS              
TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 29/15Z. ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS             
THE BIG COUNTRY.  21                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LOW CHC CATEGORY (30%) MAINLY NORTH                
OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.                                        
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY                     
ELEVATED BASED ON THE LATEST SFC CAPE ANALYSIS FROM LAPS/RUC                    
MODELS...ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVER                 
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. THE ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING MORE EAST THAN                
NORTH AND SO THE POP ORIENTATION HAD TO BE CHANGED SLIGHTLY. IN                 
ADDITION...WITH A BIT BETTER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER                              
ANTICIPATED...POPS WERE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-20.                  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW                  
SHEAR.                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/HI WERE NEEDED.                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED                
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF SWEETWATER...AND THE CURRENT SLGT CHC                  
POPS IN THE GRIDS CORRECTLY MATCH THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS.                  
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  73 103  76 100  76 /  10   0  10  10  10                               
SAN ANGELO  73 103  75 101  75 /  10   0  10  10  10                            
JUNCTION  74 101  73 100  72 /   0   0  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1012 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE LOW CHC CATEGORY (30%) MAINLY NORTH                
OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY                     
ELEVATED BASED ON THE LATEST SFC CAPE ANALYSIS FROM LAPS/RUC                    
MODELS...ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVER                 
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. THE ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING MORE EAST THAN                
NORTH AND SO THE POP ORIENTATION HAD TO BE CHANGED SLIGHTLY. IN                 
ADDITION...WITH A BIT BETTER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER                              
ANTICIPATED...POPS WERE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-20.                  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW                  
SHEAR.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/HI WERE NEEDED.                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED                
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF SWEETWATER...AND THE CURRENT SLGT CHC                  
POPS IN THE GRIDS CORRECTLY MATCH THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS.                  
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE THE DISCUSSION FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z TAF FORECAST BELOW.                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE             
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS              
TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 29/15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  73 103  76 100  76 /  10   0  10  10  10                               
SAN ANGELO  73 103  75 101  75 /  10   0  10  10  10                            
JUNCTION  74 101  73 100  72 /   0   0  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LACY                                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
840 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.           
A DRIER BUT VERY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY            
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST UTAH                    
WITH A 70 KNOT 200 MB JET STREAK. INITIAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION                 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRODUCED A LARGE                    
OUTFLOW THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE DESERTS AND INTO THE WASATCH                     
FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE DESERTS WITH ISOLATED                 
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH BETWEEN ROSEBUD IN THEN NW CORNER                    
AND I-80. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING UP TO                      
NOW. GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND UP TO NEAR 40 MPH REACHED INTO THE                     
WASATCH FRONT AS THE ASSOCIATED EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW SPREAD INTO                   
THIS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...WIDELY SCATTERED                 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE SEVIER PLATEAU TO LOA                      
AND CIRCLEVILLE AND ONE CELL PRODUCED A 57 MPH GUST IN RICHFIELD.               
MOST AREAS OF UTAH DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS DRY AIR              
ALOFT MIXED DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO             
THE 20S AND 30S. ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IS SYNOPTIC LIFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH                
WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADS INTO THE WASATCH FRONT. WHETHER                
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN A DEEP LAYER TO KEEP THE CURRENT               
LIGHTNING THAT IS ONGOING BETWEEN DUGWAY AND DELTA. THIS LIGHTNING              
APPEARS TO BE ON THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION.                      
00Z NAM CONTINUES ITS TREND OF WEAKENING THE WEST CENTRAL UTAH                  
CONVECTION...WHILE THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z ARW HOLD IT TOGETHER BETTER           
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WASATCH FRONT AND THEN WEAKENS. EITHER WAY                 
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THE 500 MB OMEGA AND HIGHEST HUMIDITY                
RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE FAR                    
NORTHEAST CORNER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN THE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WIDESPREAD HIGH BASED CONVECTION THE THREAT FOR              
STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE DESERTS AND INTO PARTS OF THE                   
WASATCH FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER. BOTH GFS AND RUC HAVE             
UP TO 25 KNOTS AT 700 MB CROSSING THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING.              
EXTENSIVE AREA OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT OCCURRING IN             
THIS REGION.                                                                    
AFTER TONIGHT LIMITED MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS UTAH AND THE AIR                  
MASS WARMS...BRINGING 18C 700 MB TEMPS UP TO I-80 BY THURSDAY                   
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW                     
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FAVORED SLOPES OF EASTERN UTAH.                      
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK WILL LIKELY ALLOW                   
MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AND THIS GETS               
DRAW INTO STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH. THIS               
SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH                    
AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND AND LAST                    
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...OLD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT APPROACHING                 
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST                
COULD BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND TO 35-40 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM AND                  
MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF                     
LIGHTNING LATE EVENING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND                 
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EARLY EVENING BROUGHT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE            
IN THIS REGION BUT HAVE WEAKENED AND HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN TO                   
15 TO 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD HIGH                  
BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MORE               
NUMEROUS IN ZONE 434 OF WEST CENTRAL UTAH. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW AND               
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST               
AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL THROUGH THE EVENING                
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES EXIST.                  
IN THE SOUTH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY                 
MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING.                  
HOWEVER THIS REGION HAS ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE DRYING                    
IN THE LOW LEVELS.                                                              
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE                
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAVORED EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL INCREASE              
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MUCH                 
OF THE REGION. 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY                   
WILL BRING LOCAL NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST              
AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE                 
REGION STARTING SATURDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR UTZ005-015 UNTIL                
     MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM.                                                          
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR UTZ002>004 UNTIL 2 AM FOR GUSTY WINDS                 
     AND LIGHTNING.                                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TARDY                                                                           
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)                                
</pre> ut                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
444 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY INTO THE              
EVENING. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH              
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MN. 40-50KT MID                  
LEVEL JET TO MOVE INTO STATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING SHEAR                  
OVER AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO BRING SFC          
DEW POINTS UP TO MID 60S...AROUND 70...MAKING FOR MORE HUMID                    
DAY...WITH SBCAPES RISING INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE. MODELS SHOWING                
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH GFS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE                
INSTABILITY IN MID LEVELS. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN                      
MN...HANDLED FAIRLY GOOD BY RUC...THOUGH A BIT SLOW...BRINGING                  
REMNANTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS                  
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN              
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. LOWERED                          
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TODAY...THOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL                  
MAKE FOR WARM AND MUGGY DAY. FRONT TO PASS THROUGH CWA TONIGHT                  
PERIOD WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FOR WED.                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                     
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES                    
NOTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION                     
AND TIMING OF RETURN FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR                  
NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION THURSDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...NEW GFS GUIDANCE VERY WARM COMPARED TO            
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BUT           
DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE MEX GUIDANCE. WEAK BOUNDARY LURING                    
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR             
CONVECTION COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WILL                     
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND MAKE                      
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. WITH BOUNDARY LURKING               
AROUND...A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED THIS WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW VFR CIGS THIS AM TO LIFT NORTH...WHILE SHOWERS/TSTM AND SCT                 
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AHEAD OF                 
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE/ECKBERG                                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
250 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PCPN TRENDS TODAY.                               
MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...TRACKING MOSTLY             
EAST...MATCHING THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THE ACTIVITY WAS SPARKING AHEAD            
OF A SFC BOUNDARY/500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/AND IN THE NOSE OF THE 850            
MB LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE RUC WOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH             
THE BULK OF THE MCS ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS...AS DOES            
THE LATEST VWP/PROFILER 850 MB WINDS.                                           
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY...AS THE 500 MB                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITS ASSOCIATED WITH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE            
NAM AND GFS BUILD 2500+ J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF               
THE BOUNDARY...WITH ABOUT 25-30 KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR. CLOUD SHIELD               
WITH THE CURRENT STORMS ARE A CONCERN...AS THEY COULD INHIBIT THE               
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ITS MORE EXTENSIVE AND THICK TO THE                      
NORTH...WITH THE CONVECTION. EVEN SO...MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE            
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY. SO...STILL EXPECT A DECENT              
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO TAP INTO.                               
OVERALL FOR TODAY...FEEL THE PCPN THREAT IS LOW FOR THE SOUTHERN                
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE              
RADAR TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE 29.03Z RUCWRF...WHICH IS DOING A GOOD             
JOB WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCES SHOULD                
INCREASE LOCALLY AS THERE SHOULD BE MORE DESTABILIZATION...ALONG                
WITH THE SFC FRONT TRACKING IN. EXPECT THE BETTER STORM THREAT TO BE            
EAST OF THE AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUDS/MORE CAPE/AND A GREATER                    
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE.              
CONSIDERING ALL THIS...FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW                       
LOCALLY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND             
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                 
A WEAK SFC HIGH STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND            
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES INTO SATURDAY. THIS                
WILL NOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE TRENDS WOULD BE FOR               
DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                   
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A POTENTIAL MCS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WED                    
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVING THIS FEATURE. A GOOD                   
MOISTURE FEED VIA THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...ALONG WITH            
A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET...WOULD BE THE MAIN INITIATORS. CORFIDI                   
VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL MCS WOULD TRACK                        
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...INTO IOWA...STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL             
AREA.                                                                           
THU NIGHT THE 29.00Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS TO DEVELOP              
OVER CENTRAL MN...THANKS AGAIN TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET            
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS MAY BE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ONGOING PCPN              
THAT SPARK AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US                  
BORDER THU AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THIS MCS ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 29.00Z GFS IS WELL NORTH WITH THIS                 
FEATURE...AS IT SURGES ITS LOW LEVEL JET INTO NORTHERN MN. THE                  
29.00Z EC WOULD FAVOR THE NAM...WITH THE 03Z SREF A BLEND BETWEEN               
THE NAM/GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                          
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TAKE A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN              
CANADA...TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION FRI/SAT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE            
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE NORTH...BOTH THE GFS AND                 
ECMWF SLIDE A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT THEN BECOMES              
WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED...LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME                 
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...AND COULD HAVE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY...TRAINING TYPE RAINS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT            
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT                   
SOUTHWARD...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY TIED MORE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH             
WHICH IS CROSSING NORTHERN MN. RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND                 
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN PATCHY BR...AND THIS WILL            
CONTINUE FOR KRST INTO DAYLIGHT.                                                
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN...AND ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO APPROACH OF COLD            
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ND/CENTRAL SD. EXPECT                   
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY...LINGERING INTO THE                  
EVENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF            
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE CHANCES IN THE NEXT TAF                
ISSUANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE              
MOVES IN.                                                                       
MW                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
333 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOW A                
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE UPSTREAM AT THIS HOUR.  SOUNDINGS FROM              
00Z AND CLOUD OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE IS MOSTLY             
IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.  RUC ANALYSES FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS            
SHOW SOME QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND NORTHERN             
UTAH WHICH THE MODELS WANT TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  NOT                
SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THESE PROGNOSES AS THE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO                
HOLD ONTO THIS FEATURE.  IN ANY EVENT...THE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE               
LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A VERY SMALL THREAT OF HIGH BASED             
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE                   
EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH              
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.  IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN...WE ARE GETTING CLOSE            
TO SETTING THE ALL TIME /SINCE 1872/ LONGEST STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE              
90+ MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...YUCK.                                                
.LONG TERM...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE FLOW ALOFT IS            
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.  THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW                 
NOTHING CONCERNING SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FORM THE NORMAL                 
DIURNAL TRENDS.  MODELS SHOW MOISTURE TO BE PRETTY SPARSE THROUGH               
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.                         
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE                    
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE            
30 TO 45 F RANGE OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE DAY THURSDAY AND            
LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND            
HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A BIT MOVE             
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE THETA-E               
AXIS IS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS.  LAPSE              
RATES ON THE CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS...               
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.  WILL GO WITH 10-20%S POPS IN              
THE MOUNTAINS ONLY LATE THURSDAY...SAME FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE            
ADDITION OF 10%S OVER THE PLAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S                
HIGHS LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S.  FRIDAY`S READINGS WARM-UP                 
0.5-1.5 C FROM THURSDAY`S.  WILL LEAVE THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY                
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THERE               
SHOULD BE A BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION AROUND DURING THE HEAT OF              
THE DAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS/MICROBURST ACTIVITY.            
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ET/RJK                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAKENING CDFNT EXTENDING FM NW LWR MI SWWD INTO ERN IA IN RESPONSE             
TO FILLING CYCLONE OVR SW ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING AND WASH OUT. MID LVL MSTR PLUME FM DOLLY REMNANTS WILL BE              
SLOW TO CLEAR HWVR W/WK FLW ALOFT AS VFR CONDS CONT THROUGH THE PD.             
OTHERWISE AFTN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT            
A MENTION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF OVER ERN IA THIS AFTN               
PROPAGATING EWD AT 35-40KT ACROSS IL THIS EVE. EXPECT STORMS TO                 
WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND AS THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE                 
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA...HWVR...3-6KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM FM DTX            
EVE SOUNDING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
TO ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST IN WEAKENED STATE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH               
OUR AREA TONIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY OVER SWRN             
PORTION OF CWA...GOING CHC POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA STILL A            
REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                                 
19Z ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICIES NEARING THE               
REGION...A POTENT SW TROUGH ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A                
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HEADING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH             
OF THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT TO HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES                 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE UTILIZED THE NAM 12 AND AND RUC13 FOR               
FORECAST DETAILS MAINLY IN TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES AND THERE              
RESULTANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN. MOISTURE             
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE REGION PER WEAK MOMENTUM                 
FIELDS GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE FA.                 
HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER IL/IA/MO AND WILL                
BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS LL WINDS RESPOND TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS             
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WITH INCREASED LL                    
MOISTURE...MID COOLING WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT IN REPONSE TO THE                  
SKIRTING UPPER IMPULSE...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN SHOWALTER INDICES               
PROGS FALLING TO AROUND -3. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE              
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
FORCING/AND WEAK LL WIND FIELDS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO WELL                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALLOWING THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND ANY                  
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE SOLE MECHANISM FOR PRODUCTION             
OF PRECIP. NIGHTTIME FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO                
PRECIP CHANCES. HENCE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK 50 POPS TO THE WEST WHERE             
BEST INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER EAST...HAVE LOWERED TO               
40...WHICH MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT...THINKING MAV                    
GUIDANCE MAY BE THE MOST REALISTIC IN THE POP DEPARTMENT.                       
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE REGION AND STALL IN              
RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. THE TRACK OF              
THIS IMPULSE VARIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM              
RUN TO RUN GIVEN FORECAST MODEL POOR HANDLING OF TROPICAL                       
REMNANTS/SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT                
THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE DEEP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND                   
PROGRESS EAST. THUS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE AND                  
INCREASED LL CONVERGENCE FROM THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...HAVE LET POPS             
RIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER              
DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAVORED. VEERING WINDS IN THE H925 TO H85 LAYER             
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ADDED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTH             
OVERNIGHT. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS.                                     
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH WED NIGHT PER NORTHERLY               
FLOW...ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS THERE.                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE THEME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPR LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH H5 HIGH OVER OHIO               
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS BRINGS A WEAK SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT              
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALREADY CAPPED BY THIS TIME.  HEAT BUILDS IN                
EARNEST BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OVER 20C SAT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE...ALREADY BEING UNDERCUT...WARMED EVEN MORE.                 
BUMPED HIGHS  INTO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS SAT-SUN WHICH IS STILL BELOW            
GUIDANCE.  WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THE DOOR IS STILL OPEN TO                
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FASTER TO DROP NW FLOW OVER REGION THAN             
THE OP RUN...WITH BNDRY SAGGING NEAR NORTHERN CWA BY END OF FCST                
PD.  BUT ONCE ESTABLISHED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIDGING HOLD            
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.  EITHER WAY...TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
UPDATE...JT                                                                     
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. A COLD FRONT                 
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH DULUTH AND THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                        
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER EASTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. NEW               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN U.P. IN AN                
AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE MOVING             
EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE U.P. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND            
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL                     
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT              
850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE                   
ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING SOME MUCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND A             
PRONOUNCED THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO             
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
PASSING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL PRODUCE JUST A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR FOLLOWING             
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                             
.LONG TERM... (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)                                              
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES             
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS.             
SO...TRANQUIL/SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE              
THE RULE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THU AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE TO LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE LAKE BREEZE              
DEVELOPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                    
FRI THRU TUE...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE                
OVER THE SW CONUS WILL EXPAND EWD LATE WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND SO THAT            
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT            
THE SAME TIME...A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD            
JAMES BAY BY MON PER ECMWF/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. RESULT WILL BE AN             
EWD EXPANSION OF HEAT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
BECOMING FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL OF PERIODIC CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF            
THE HEAT AND UNDER THE UPPER JET. PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY              
OF AN EPISODE OF STRONG OR SVR STORMS. THU NIGHT/FRI OFFERS THE                 
FIRST OPPORTUNITY OF SHRA/TSRA AS APPROACHING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE                  
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...LOCATION OF THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL            
JET/STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS A SE MOVING CLUSTER OF                 
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PASS TO THE SW AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THERE MAY BE            
ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION FARTHER N ALONG APPROACHING 850MB TROF...             
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS ACROSS              
THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI. THERE IS LITTLE                  
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PCPN CHANCES BEYOND FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW IT                 
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA               
SAT/SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER MON/TUE              
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW             
ACROSS SRN CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THE                
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MON/TUE. IT WILL PROBABLY BE             
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID AT LEAST ONE OF THE DAYS (MOST LIKELY SAT)              
PRIOR TO FROPA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...DEPENDING ON PCPN             
OCCURRENCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT DON`T                
FALL BELOW 70F IN SOME AREAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH MID LVL DRYING OVER SOME LLVL MSTR FOLLOWING RECENT RA...EXPECT            
OFF AND ON PTCHY MVFR FOG AT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG IN PRESENCE OF                 
NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION THAT WL LIMIT NEAR SFC DRY ADVCTN.              
DID NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN MVFR GIVEN SOME BREEZE. SOME LLVL DRY HAS             
ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA...SO NO FOG              
EXPECTED THERE. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE TDAY/THIS EVNG.            
HOWEVER...GUSTY W WIND IS LIKELY AT CMX WITH DAYTIME HTG/LK BREEZE              
FLOW ACCENTUATING FAIRLY TIGHT WLY GRADIENT FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF            
LO MOVING ACRS ONTARIO.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS              
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TO              
THE WEST. FURTHER DIMINISHING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
INTO SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.             
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC/AJ                                                                
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
336 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAS SHIFTED INTO            
SERN KS WITH AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH            
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATEST GFS/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE            
ON THE SITUATION AS THE NAM QPF HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAR NORTH                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
A RATHER SHARP H7/H5 DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIMITED THE NWD EXTENT OF             
THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD...FM KC AREA ENE TO NR MACON. THIS IS WELL              
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH THE GFS TO SHIFT THIS AXIS SLOWLY SE THROUGH             
THE DAY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE H8/H7 THETAE RIDGE WAS POSITION NR THE               
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...2-2.5               
PRECIPITABLE WATER...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUD            
TOPS HAVE WARMED THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED.                      
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING              
BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS DIURNAL DECREASE IN THE            
AFTN.                                                                           
SINCE RADAR TRENDS VERIFY THE LATEST GFS...HAVE REMOVED THE XTRM NRN            
EXTENT OF THE FFA.                                                              
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT. MORE                    
CONFIDENT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED           
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY.                                                           
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND              
FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.                                   
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL                    
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL                      
INFLUENCED SYSTEMS. BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH LIFR                         
CIGS/VSBYS...IS SETTING UP GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM                   
EMPORIA TO KC AREA. THIS BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT            
SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE THEREFORE HAD             
TO CONTINUE THUNDER FOR THE KC SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE TAPERED            
BACK TO SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE              
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY                   
EVENING.                                                                        
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ021-MOZ022-           
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-                   
     MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-                   
     MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.                                                      
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-           
     KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                             
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
403 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAK                   
RIPPLE AT 700 MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. VORT MAX ALSO MOVING                   
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH LLJ IN                
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL THIS IS              
INTERACTING WITH JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ACCAS              
AND ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC/NAM PICKING UP                
ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE                  
MORNING HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT                 
FURTHER EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WARM FRONT POSITION BECOMING               
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON SFC OBS THIS MORNING WITH PIR/HON/BKX                
SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND OBS TO THE NORTH WITH EITHER LIGHT                  
EASTERLY WINDS OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT              
TO BASICALLY REMAIN IN THIS POSITION ALL DAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS EVEN THOUGH A LARGE                  
PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. SVR PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT              
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN                
GET GOING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. 700 MB TEMPS                  
BEGIN TO INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE               
FORECAST AREA...APPROACHING 15 DEGREES C. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD               
REMAIN CAPPED...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN                
CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS                   
NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO              
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS               
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE               
PLAINS STATES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL                    
DAMPEN SOME ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS                       
CANADA...BUT THEN BUILDS RIGHT BACK UP ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE FRONT              
WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE GREAT               
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER MINNESOTA                
AND WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE                  
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PUSHES TO                
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...THEN FURTHER NORTHWARD AS THE                 
LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD                 
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY                
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND              
THE EXITING FRONT ON TUESDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION               
CHANCES WITH EITHER OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES AS H7 TEMPS WILL BE                 
IN THE +12 TO +18 DEGREE RANGE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                 
NIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT                
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                     
MONDAY...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIPITATION BEING              
ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG CAP.                                           
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS                    
WELL...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EVERY DAY EXCEPT                  
TUESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100+ DEGREES              
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DUE TO                     
ABUNDANT RAIN AND GREENNESS ACROSS THE AREA...WILL STICK WITH                   
TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR NOW. WILL SEE A TOUCH OF A COOL DOWN ON                    
TUESDAY AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE                    
SURFACE HIGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT -TSRA WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA              
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER JUST SOME SCT MID                
LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 8K FEET ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE               
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
/AS REPRESENTED IN RUC 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS/                      
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO OUR WESTERN CWA AND INTO               
THE BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS SHEAR ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH                 
TEXAS TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.                                 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER              
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.                 
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO BE QUITE HOT THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S COMMON AREA WIDE.                                      
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH                
TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS AT                  
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
OTHERWISE...CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER               
THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO                  
SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.                                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              99  79  99  79  99 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             96  73  97  75  96 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  77  98 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  98  75  98 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  80  98 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  97 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  96  76  97 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  98  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
1018 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT TRENDS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND POPS.  ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN WV PICS AND RUC H2-H3 PV FIELDS...IS LOCATED             
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WRN CO.  ONCE AGAIN MODELS                     
DRAG THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                   
WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST             
WITH H7 TEMPS APPROACHING +18 TO +20C OUT WEST...AND +15 TO +18C FOR            
THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL MEAN A MODEST WARM UP FOR THE                    
MOUNTAINS (BY A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO) TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER                 
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR.  MODELS DRY OUT THE               
SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING THEM INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE MTS AND               
WEST...WITH SOME 40S NEAR THE CO KS BORDER.  C51ENGE WILL BE HOW                
FAR EAST THE LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES              
EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM QPF FIELDS WITH NAM BREAKING OUT SOME                 
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR...AND ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTN...WHILE GFS AND            
UKMET KEEPS IT DRY.  ECMWF PRINTS OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE            
CEN MTS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE AND THE FACT THAT MODELS             
WERE TOO QUICK TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE PLAINS YESTERDAY            
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING              
THE EVENING...ITS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH 0 POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.          
THUS HAVE SPREAD SOME LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS FOR JUST ABOUT                    
EVERYWHERE TODAY.  EARLIER TIMING OF SHORTWAVE WOULD SUGGEST                    
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MAIN              
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING...WITH              
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SPOTTY AREAS.  THUNDERSTORMS             
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS                
SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN CO.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE               
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS GIVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND               
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. -KT                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR THE AREA THU THRU SAT WITH H7 TEMPS                
RANGING FROM AROUND 16-22C. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS THU                  
THRU SAT WL BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S...WITH 80S GENERALLY OVR                
THE HIGH VALLEYS. A COUPLE RECORD TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN OR TIED ON                
FRI. IT WL BE FAIRLY DRY OVR THE AREA...BUT WE WL PROBABLY STILL                
SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP OVR THE MTS EACH DAY. THE UPR              
RIDGE SHIFTS EWRD FOR SUN THRU TUE...AND THE S TO SW FLOW OVR WRN               
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS LIKE IT WL DRAW MONSOON MSTR                
BACK OVR THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR MON AND TUE...WHICH WL LEAD               
TO BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WHILE                 
OVR THE FAR SE PLAINS THE WEA STILL LOOK AS THOUGH IT WL BE DRY.                
TEMPS SHOULD BE ONLY A LITTLE COOLER MON AND TUE.                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER                    
18Z...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 20Z. VFR CIGS...ERRATIC                
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY                      
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH                   
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED                        
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1132 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW SPINNING JUST NORTH            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR                     
INTRUSION CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO THE DRY SLOT AND OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA WHILE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. A RIDGE IS BUILDING            
OVER MANITOBA. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOW MICHIGAN THEN WEST            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURACE RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING OVER                  
MANITOBA STETCHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROVIDING SOME SUN ACROSS            
THE AREA.                                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST TODAY...MORE DRIER AIR AND SUN WILL                
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE BREEZES                     
DEVELOPMENT. THE HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST LAKE               
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THUS STONGEST LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE FROM                   
MANISTIQUE EASTWARD...WITH WEAKER CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR                         
MARQUETTE...AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE FROM MENOMINEE TO                 
MANISTIQUE. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED                 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THIS IS CONVEYED ALREADY            
IN THE GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE VERIFYING FAILY CLOSE AT            
THIS TIME. CONSIDERING THE TRAJECTORY FORECASTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD             
REACH TO AROUND 80 OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE U.P. AND LAKE               
BREEZES WILL LIMIT HEATING NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE            
WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AND SLOW HEATING. CURRENT ZONE                    
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED             
STATES THROUGH MINNESOTA BY 06Z THURSDAY...A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS             
WILL BE SHUNNED TO THE EAST.  OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
INTO THURSDAY SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS BEING             
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.  850MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO                 
DRAMATICALLY FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY FROM                
12-13C TO 10-11C.  HAVE OPTED TO GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH               
REGARDS TO SKY COVER...LESSENING THE PERCENTAGE MORE THAN MODEL                 
GUIDANCE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES DROP A COUPLE MORE            
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR CWA.                                        
AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...PROBLEMS CONTINUE WITH A VARIETY OF                     
SOLUTIONS TO SELECT FROM.  LATEST GFS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE             
NW FLOW...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FIGURED THAT OUR ONGOING                     
FORECAST.  THIS MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH             
OUR PREVIOUS THINKING.  HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS NOT BACKED BY THE NAM             
OR ECMWF.  THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY THE PREFERRED MODEL.  AS A                   
RESULT...HAVE ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR              
MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WAS NOT A PART OF THE                   
GFS...AS THE GFS DOES A TYPICAL DIVIDE OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR             
WEST...WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS DROPPED OFF LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED AT SAW...AND AS A RESULT                
VLIFR VIS AND LIFR CIG DEVELOPED THERE AROUND 08Z. HOWEVER...DRIER              
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST DISSIPATED THE FOG AND BR BY 11Z.                  
EXPECT SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS            
MORNING. CMX MAY ALSO GET INTO SOME MVFR CIG CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND             
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE VFR             
CONDITIONS ARE PLANNED INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO                  
EXPECTED TODAY AT BOTH SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE LAKE                 
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER             
NORTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES.               
LOW CLOUDS...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CIGS...CURRENTLY EXIST AROUND THE                
FRONT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT TODAY WITH HEATING...BUT AM             
WORRIED THAT THEY WILL REFORM TONIGHT WITH COOLING. RIGHT NOW HAVE              
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TAF SITES UNDER THE EXPECTATION OF                   
REFORMING...BUT LOWER CIGS MAY OCCUR. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO             
MONITOR.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A BREEZY WSW WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH             
SPEEDS UP TO 25 KT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED                  
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS               
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH SPEEDS                  
LIKELY BELOW 15 KT FOR THU NIGHT. WIND FORECAST A LITLE MORE                    
COMPLICATED BEYOND THU NIGHT WITH MANY MODEL DIFFERENCES. GENERAL               
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR LATE FRI...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
BY SAT MORNING. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY HEADS OFF TO THE EAST FOR SAT             
NIGHT INTO SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.             
NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...WIND                 
SPEEDS SHOULD STILL END UP AT OR BELOW 20 KT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
540 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS PUSHED ACROSS AREA WITH              
00Z MPX RAOB SHOWING PWATS DOWN TO .60 VS. THE 1.7 INCHES AT 12Z.               
HOWEVER...ISOL SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN SODAK                  
TOWARD EXTREME SW MN LAST HOUR OR TWO. 00Z GFS PICKED UP ON POCKET              
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN AREA OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WV IMAGERY              
ALSO SHOWS A WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DISTURBACE WHICH CAME OUT OF             
COLORADO WHICH HAS HELPED CONVECTION ALONG.  INTRODUCED SOME ISOL               
MORNING TSTMS IN EXTREME SW PORTIONS AND RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                            
IN THE BIGGER PICTURE A SERIES OF RATHER STRONG TROFS MOVE ACROSS               
CANADA DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.            
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINC ZONE            
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK            
NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROF NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHUD SEE SCT TSTMS LATE TONIGHT SW 1/2 CWA                    
AS LLJ POKES ACROSS NEBRASKA TOWARD SW MN.  MID LEVEL INSTABILITY               
INCREASES ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL MN IN AREA OF DIFLUENT 850MB TO                
300MB THICKNESS. MID LEVELS GET PRETTY WARM IN SW MN BY 18Z THURSDAY            
WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 15C...BUT QUITE A BIT OF COOLING BY 00Z            
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO AREA. SPREAD POPS EAST THURSDAY                 
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LLJ TRANSLATES EAST AHEAD OF TROF.              
850MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER                
RIDGE BUILDS...BUT EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES OUT OF SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. KEPT IN THE            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING              
INTO AREA MAY NEED TO CUT THEM BACK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER DURING TAF PERIOD.  WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING            
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST            
CORNER OF MN DURING THE EARLY PERIOD.  RUC IS ADAMANT IN KEEPING                
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  KRWF WOULD BE THE ONLY                    
AFFECTED AREA.  WILL KEEP TAF DRY FOR NOW...AS APPEARS BOTH NAM/GFS             
DROP ACTIVITY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS              
ALONG WITH SPOTTY CUMULUS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TODAY...WITH             
WIND GENERALLY NWLY IN DIRECTION AND 10 KTS OR LESS.  SURFACE                   
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN WILL LIKELY LIFT SLOWLY NORTH LATER                   
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY OVER THE            
SOUTHWEST CWA AGAIN.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP KRWF DRY FOR NOW.                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
547 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAS SHIFTED INTO            
SERN KS WITH AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH            
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATEST GFS/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE            
ON THE SITUATION AS THE NAM QPF HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAR NORTH                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
A RATHER SHARP H7/H5 DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIMITED THE NWD EXTENT OF             
THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD...FM KC AREA ENE TO NR MACON. THIS IS WELL              
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH THE GFS TO SHIFT THIS AXIS SLOWLY SE THROUGH             
THE DAY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE H8/H7 THETAE RIDGE WAS POSITION NR THE               
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...2-2.5               
PRECIPITABLE WATER...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUD            
TOPS HAVE WARMED THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED.                      
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING              
BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS DIURNAL DECREASE IN THE            
AFTN.                                                                           
SINCE RADAR TRENDS VERIFY THE LATEST GFS...HAVE REMOVED THE XTRM NRN            
EXTENT OF THE FFA.                                                              
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT. MORE                    
CONFIDENT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED           
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY.                                                           
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND              
FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.                                   
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED           
WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL                    
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE TO THE VFR            
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS LATE TONIGHT.               
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...A MOIST AIR MASS              
AND WET GROUND...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE LIKELY.                     
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ017-MOZ021-MOZ022-           
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-                   
     MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-                   
     MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.                                                      
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-           
     KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                             
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1039 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A                
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING                
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY                 
SUNNY AND SEASONAL FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR                 
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR CLOUD/TEMP GRID TWEAKS.               
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT                      
APPROACHES WESTERN NEW YORK. BOTH LATEST NAM/RUC INDICATE BEST                  
SHORT WAVE LIFT OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.               
BUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS DECENT CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED              
ON 06Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DRY LOW LEVELS              
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL SHORT WAVE ERODES CAP AND DEW                    
POINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY.                                       
DUE TO WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES, WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND                   
CAPES AROUND 600-900 J/KG, SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. ALTHOUGH,                
COMBINATION OF COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR A FEW                     
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AGAIN THURSDAY. NAM CAPES ARE                        
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST VALUES AROUND 600-900 J/KG. GFS APPEARS                
FAR TOO UNSTABLE AGAIN, WITH DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 70F MOST                   
LOCALES. THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM, COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND                   
FIELD, DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
UPR RDG OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE FCST AREA IN THE NW FLOW EAST                
OF THE RDG THRU THE PD. WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROF WELL EAST OF THE              
AREA...SLGT CHANCE POPS SEEM TO BE ABOUT THE HIGHEST WE CAN XPCT                
AS THE RDG TRIES TO NOSE IN. PRVS FCST TEMPS WERE WELL ABV                      
NRML...AND ABV SURROUNDING WFO/S SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW              
DEGREES IN BETTER COLLABORATION AND CLSR TO NRML GIVEN THE TROF AND             
RDG PSN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
OUTSIDE OF VLIFR EARLY MORNING FG AT ELM...ALL SITES VFR ATTM AND               
LIKELY TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY                
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTIVE                
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS                   
TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS                       
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
TONIGHT...COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHRA...BUT GENERALLY VFR                     
CONDITIONS WITH THINNER /MVFR/ FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM AGAIN TOWARDS                
DAYBREAK.                                                                       
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5KTS             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH                        
RESTRICTIONS.                                                                   
FRIDAY...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/MVFR FOG AT ELM IN THE MORNING.                 
SATURDAY...MORNING MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM. CHC AFTERNOON                  
MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA.                                                             
SUNDAY...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/MVFR FOG AT ELM IN THE MORNING.                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RRM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RRM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...DGM                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY                    
WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT             
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SUPPORT THE 12Z NAM AND RUC FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE VORT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO WILL CLIP             
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS IT MOVES EAST...WHILE ANOTHER VORT OVER                
WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN             
AREAS. THE PROBLEM IS...WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS AND FLOW WITH THESE              
VORTS...HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR                       
CONVECTION. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE INVADING FROM THE WEST FROM                  
DIURNALLY DYING CONVECTION FROM THE KENTUCKY VORT...AND IS SUPPORTED            
BY PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES...SO WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT                      
OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL              
ACT TO LIMIT THE HEATING POTENTIAL AND CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER            
WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH                
HEATING IN THE MOIST ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE            
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO...BEST POPS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE EAST               
AND SOUTH WHERE BEST HEATING WILL INTERACT WITH THE VORTS. WILL GO              
LIKELY THERE AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...LOWERED TEMPS A FEW              
DEGREES IN THE WEST WITH ALL THE CLOUDS.                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DYING MCS ACROSS THE OH              
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THESE CLOUDS                
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE               
MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME             
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT COULD SERVE AS FOCUS MECHANISM             
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE             
ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1800 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BOTH GFS            
AND NAM BRING A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT AS H5 VORT MAXES MOVING FROM                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE LOCATIONS             
OF WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL OCCUR.                            
WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...WENT COOLER THAN MET AND                   
MAV...ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.             
TONIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.                               
ANY PREDAWN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL SWING                
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...AS WILL THE POTENT SURFACE            
TROUGH. STILL LOOKING AT A SCENARIO WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2.0 INCHES...AND A SLOW PROGRESSION OF            
THE INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREAS THAT GET                    
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES...AS ANY              
SORT OF TRAINING COULD EASILY RESULT IN WATER ISSUES FOR URBAN AREAS            
AND SMALL STREAMS.                                                              
BEYOND THURSDAY...UPSTREAM 596HPA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE               
HEAT WILL BE ON. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...LOW 90S WILL NOT             
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS                
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.               
EUROPEAN PUTS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE MARITIMES OF                
CANADA...WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN            
DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT WITHIN GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. DRY WEATHER PATTERN                
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AT SURFACE              
AND ALOFT BUILD OVER CWA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID                  
PATTERN ENVELOPS REGION AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO 22-24C RESULTING IN                 
DAYTIME MAX/S IN THE MID-UPPER 90S. TEMPS BACK DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES            
ON TUESDAY AS CREST OF RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
15Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...                                              
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING THREAT OF AT LEAST                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY           
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL               
BE LEAST AND ALLOW FOR HEATING. EXPECT LOTS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS               
WEST OF A PKB TO CRW LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO LIMIT                   
CONVECTION. THUS...MENTIONED ONLY CB AT PKB...HTS AND CRW WITH NO               
TEMP PERIOD FRO THUNDER. INCLUDED TEMP PERIOD 19Z-23Z OF THUNDER AT             
EKN...BKW...AND CKB. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE                      
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VERY                         
DIFFICULT...AS CONVECTION WILL LIKLEY DIMINISH GREATLY WITH LOSS OF             
HEATING...BUT FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE WHERE IT RAINS THIS AFTERNOON.                
THUS...WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO ADDRESS FOG OVERNIGHT.           
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z THU/...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR                
CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THUR EVENING INTO FRI                
ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...PKB AND CKB. NO                       
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FORECAST FRI AFTERNOON THRU SUN.                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE ENTIRE CLI FOR EKN IS MISSING AGAIN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
NO CHANGE IN THE STATUS AT EKN UNTIL WED AT THE EARLIEST THUS NIL               
AMD CONTINUES IN THE EKN TAF.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ                                                               
NEAR TERM...JMV                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...JKF                                                                 
AVIATION...JMV                                                                  
CLIMATE...                                                                      
EQUIPMENT...                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER PARTS OF THE                  
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT               
THIS HOUR. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE                  
I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF I-20 BUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO              
BE DRY. CHANCE CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THAT ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20                
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER ALL THE AREA. BY LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER REFIRING                
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE                  
INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 22Z AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST                   
HIGHER FOR TONIGHT.                                                             
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ADJUSTED BASED ON                    
CURRENT TRENDS. DID MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...TO                
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST AND DECREASE A DEGREE IN THE               
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK                
LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THE            
STORMS AT THE TAF SITES.  WILL SEE A FEW STORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE NEAR            
FTW/DFW/AND AFW AND SHORTLY AFTER AT DAL. WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM               
CHANCES BACK TO ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD                 
FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER.                                                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR  CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN              
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.                       
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV UPDATE...                                                                 
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST                  
ZONES THROUGH 18Z GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP                
EVOLUTION. UPDATES AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                                           
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/                         
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
/AS REPRESENTED IN RUC 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS/                      
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO OUR WESTERN CWA AND INTO               
THE BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS SHEAR ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH                 
TEXAS TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.                                 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER              
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.                 
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO BE QUITE HOT THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S COMMON AREA WIDE.                                      
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH                
TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS AT                  
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
OTHERWISE...CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER               
THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO                  
SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.                                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /  30  30  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              99  79  99  79  99 /  30  30  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             95  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  77  98 /  30  30  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  98  75  98 /  30  30  20  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  80  98 /  30  30  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  97 /  30  30  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  96  76  97 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  98  76  96 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/82                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
705 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST                  
ZONES THROUGH 18Z GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP                
EVOLUTION. UPDATES AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                                           
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK                
LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THE            
STORMS AT THE TAF SITES.  WILL SEE A FEW STORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE NEAR            
FTW/DFW/AND AFW AND SHORTLY AFTER AT DAL. WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM               
CHANCES BACK TO ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD                 
FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER.                                                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR  CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN              
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.                       
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/                         
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
/AS REPRESENTED IN RUC 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS/                      
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO OUR WESTERN CWA AND INTO               
THE BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS SHEAR ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH                 
TEXAS TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.                                 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER              
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.                 
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO BE QUITE HOT THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S COMMON AREA WIDE.                                      
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH                
TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS AT                  
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
OTHERWISE...CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER               
THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO                  
SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.                                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              99  79  99  79  99 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             96  73  97  75  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  77  98 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  98  75  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  80  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  96  76  97 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  98  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK                
LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THE            
STORMS AT THE TAF SITES.  WILL SEE A FEW STORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE NEAR            
FTW/DFW/AND AFW AND SHORTLY AFTER AT DAL. WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM               
CHANCES BACK TO ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD                 
FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER.                                                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR  CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN              
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.                       
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
245 AM                                                                          
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
/AS REPRESENTED IN RUC 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS/                      
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO OUR WESTERN CWA AND INTO               
THE BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS SHEAR ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH                 
TEXAS TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.                                 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER              
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.                 
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO BE QUITE HOT THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S COMMON AREA WIDE.                                      
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH                
TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS AT                  
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
OTHERWISE...CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER               
THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO                  
SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.                                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              99  79  99  79  99 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             96  73  97  75  96 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  77  98 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  98  75  98 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  80  98 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  97 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  96  76  97 /  30  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  98  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
223 PM MST WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION AND FIRE WX DISCUSSIONS.                         
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY                
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. BY SATURDAY            
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL                    
INCREASE MEANING THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME             
MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THIS EVENING...SOME CU HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM.                    
HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIMIT THE                           
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. UNFAVORABLE STEERING             
FLOW WILL ALSO CONFINE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU             
AND NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.                                                   
LATEST RUC PLACES THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ATOP THE            
PHOENIX AREA. THIS WILL ENSURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM                      
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAVS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER              
FOR THU AND WILL BE ISSUING AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE                   
GREATER PHOENIX AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS WEEKEND`S               
HEAT AND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR FRI-SAT WILL ALSO BE UPGRADED             
TO A WARNING. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST            
DESERTS (RELATIVE TO THE PHOENIX AREA)...HEAT INDICES WILL BE                   
ELEVATED...THOUGH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE REACHED            
IN YUMA.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
TWO PRIMARY MODES OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK...HOT AND              
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOLER AND WET BEGINNING SATURDAY. 00Z NAM              
AND GFS MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND BOTH                  
PORTRAY SIMILAR FORECASTS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR              
MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE ECMWF IS THE WET-FOOT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE             
THROUGH FRIDAY IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND              
IS LOW BY TUESDAY.                                                              
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT            
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ESCALATE. H5 PATTERN                 
SIMILAR IN ALL MODELS WITH RIDGE INTENSIFYING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD               
THE FOUR CORNERS. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT OPTED             
TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS JUSTIFIED BY H85 TEMPS             
AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.                                                    
SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATING A QUICK TRANSITION FROM HOT-DRY TO                 
/RELATIVELY/ COOL-WET. THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY INTO                 
SATURDAY CONCEPTUALLY POINTS TO MCS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN                      
MEXICO...CONDUCIVE TO GENERATING A GULF SURGE FOR OUR LOWER DESERTS.            
HOWEVER...BEING MANY DAYS OUT IT IS ALMOST FOOLISH TO PEG THE                   
FORECAST TO MESOSCALE WEATHER FEATURES. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN            
OF INCREASING S/SE FLOW WOULD CAUSE MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK               
INTO OUR AREA AND THEREFORE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.               
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY INDICATED INCREASING POPS FOR THE FORECAST               
AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND KEPT WITH THAT THINKING.                          
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA                  
AROUND MONDAY. THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE WEATHER FEATURE IN            
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD TO GRAB ON TO...THEREFORE CONTINUED                
UPWARD TREND IN POPS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE                    
AFTERWARD. AS SAID...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS             
LOW. THE PROBABILITY THAT DEEP /MONSOON/ MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK                
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH. BUT AS IS                
OFTEN THE CASE...OUR WEATHER TENDS TO BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE                 
FEATURES THAT ARE BEYOND FORECASTING CAPABILITIES THIS FAR IN                   
ADVANCE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC FRIDAY.                   
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST            
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST 00            
UTC FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF               
YEAR...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE OF                        
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MTS...WELL TO THE EAST OF THE VALLEY.              
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR AN                   
INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE            
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL...AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY               
ERRATIC WINDS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY            
     FOR AZZ022-023-027-028.                                                    
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/INIGUEZ                                                     
AVIATION...WANEK                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...WANEK                                                            
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
324 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST TRENDS ARE WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND MILDER SATURDAY THAN                
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
THE FIRST ISSUE IS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSRA THIS                  
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN                      
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN              
REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE MENTION OF                    
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE SURFACE                
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH STATIONED OVER THE AREA                  
TOMORROW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.  BOTH            
MODELS SHOW LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE              
AFTERNOON.  COULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS.                
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  NAM AND GFS              
DISAGREE ON POSITION OF SURFACE WAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GFS                
PUTTING IT OVER THE AREA AND NAM KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST OVER IOWA.             
SPC ALSO DISCUSSES FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUT HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF            
ILLINOIS AND PART OF NORTHWEST INDIANA IN THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK.                
WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING AND EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA AND MENTION             
CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FOR PART OF THE PERIOD.                           
HEAT BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
ORIGINAL THOUGHT WAS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY.  LATEST MODELS NOW SUGGEST MAX TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT                 
COMBINATIONS WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER...LIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.               
ON SATURDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING                     
OVERHEAD...PUTTING US IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR FOR AT LEAST              
PART OF THE DAY.  BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES              
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED JUST TO OUR                  
EAST.  THIS PUTS US IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION              
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.  WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS                    
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICIES.                                 
EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS HEAT PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE                
MODERATION NEXT WEDNESDAY.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO INDICATES                    
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT            
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                        
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
120 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 18Z TAFS...WINDS MAIN FOCUS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH SMALL            
BUT NON ZERO PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION EXISTS IN VICINITY OF                   
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                       
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND             
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG KCWI...KSQI...KGYY LINE              
AT 17Z. GENERALY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH SPEEDS                
GENERALY BELOW 10 KNOTS...THOUGH DIRECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                    
VARIABLE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT TIMES. KORD/KMDW TDWR                   
REFLECTIVITY DEPICT WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...PUSHING INLAND             
TO A FEW MILES EAST OF KMDW AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE             
INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO                
PREVENT LAKE BOUNDARY FROM MOVING INTO KORD/KMDW...THOUGH THIS WILL             
HAVE TO BE WATCHED NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR KMDW BASED ON                  
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED               
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SAGS THROUGH             
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS                  
WI/LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD HELP TO VEER WINDS NORTHERLY DURING THE                 
MORNING AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST JUST BEYOND 18Z END OF TAF PERIOD.              
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION POTENTIAL...LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS             
POOLING ALONG/AND ON WARM SIDE OF STALLED FRONT PER SURFACE OBS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM FRONTAL ZONE              
THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOP SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG...WITH LITTLE/NO               
CIN. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND LITTLE              
DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FRONT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY POTENT               
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING TRANSLATING            
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS...AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM GOES VAPOR LOOP             
SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IA BY LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT THROUGH WEAK SYNOPTIC               
SCALE LIFT/MID LEVEL COOLING...RUC FORECASTS INDICATE REGION WILL               
COME BENEATH DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 KNOT UPPER JET               
STREAK OVER NORTHERN LAKES. THUS WHILE POTENTIAL COVERAGE APPEARS TO            
BE MINIMAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT NEAR TERMINALS            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH KMDW/KGYY LIKELY                  
HAVING THE GREATER THREAT THOUGH STILL SMALL PROBABILITY. AT THIS               
TIME WILL REMAIN DRY IN TERMINALS AS CAN/T USE A LOW CHANCE PROB                
GROUP IN FIRST 9 HOURS...THOUGH WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY               
FOR THE NEED TO AMEND.                                                          
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
303 PM CDT                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OF OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF                 
TO THE EAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.                
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS                  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.                    
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN                 
LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS               
OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE               
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.                                                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
304 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1154 AM CDT                                                                     
HAVE BEEN LOOKING INTO ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE                    
WESTERN PART OF THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDOR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUT SEVERAL               
FACTORS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.                        
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING IS              
INDICATED BY A LINE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE              
IMAGERY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE DROPPING                 
BUT THE 14Z-15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES POOLING NEAR THE                     
BOUNDARY ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE                 
SOME MID- LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WHICH ALSO                 
WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT THESE EFFECTS ARE LESS                   
PRONOUNCED FARTHER SOUTH. THE ADDITION OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH                
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN...PLUS INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE                  
ENERGY IN THE UPPER- LEVEL FLOW...ALSO WOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR                
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEVERAL FACTORS                 
WOULD HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR CONVECTION TO FORM...BUT THINK                  
THIS POSSIBILITY IS AT LEAST WORTH MENTIONING. UPDATED FORECAST                 
PACKAGE WILL BE COMING IN A FEW MINUTES.                                        
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
120 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 18Z TAFS...WINDS MAIN FOCUS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH SMALL            
BUT NON ZERO PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION EXISTS IN VICINITY OF                   
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                       
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND             
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG KCWI...KSQI...KGYY LINE              
AT 17Z. GENERALY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH SPEEDS                
GENERALY BELOW 10 KNOTS...THOUGH DIRECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                    
VARIABLE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT TIMES. KORD/KMDW TDWR                   
REFLECTIVITY DEPICT WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...PUSHING INLAND             
TO A FEW MILES EAST OF KMDW AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE             
INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO                
PREVENT LAKE BOUNDARY FROM MOVING INTO KORD/KMDW...THOUGH THIS WILL             
HAVE TO BE WATCHED NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR KMDW BASED ON                  
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED               
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SAGS THROUGH             
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS                  
WI/LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD HELP TO VEER WINDS NORTHERLY DURING THE                 
MORNING AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST JUST BEYOND 18Z END OF TAF PERIOD.              
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION POTENTIAL...LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS             
POOLING ALONG/AND ON WARM SIDE OF STALLED FRONT PER SURFACE OBS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM FRONTAL ZONE              
THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOP SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG...WITH LITTLE/NO               
CIN. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND LITTLE              
DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FRONT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY POTENT               
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING TRANSLATING            
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS...AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM GOES VAPOR LOOP             
SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IA BY LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT THROUGH WEAK SYNOPTIC               
SCALE LIFT/MID LEVEL COOLING...RUC FORECASTS INDICATE REGION WILL               
COME BENEATH DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 KNOT UPPER JET               
STREAK OVER NORTHERN LAKES. THUS WHILE POTENTIAL COVERAGE APPEARS TO            
BE MINIMAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT NEAR TERMINALS            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH KMDW/KGYY LIKELY                  
HAVING THE GREATER THREAT THOUGH STILL SMALL PROBABILITY. AT THIS               
TIME WILL REMAIN DRY IN TERMINALS AS CAN/T USE A LOW CHANCE PROB                
GROUP IN FIRST 9 HOURS...THOUGH WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY               
FOR THE NEED TO AMEND.                                                          
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
303 PM CDT                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OF OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF                 
TO THE EAST TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.                
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS                  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.                    
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN                 
LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS               
OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE               
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.                                                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
332 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                  
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS OF                           
1830Z...EXTENDING FROM MCI TO SOUTH OF SBN TO OEB. NORTHERN PORTION             
THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO MARCH THROUGH MI WHILE THE SOUTHERN              
END HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT OVER IN. ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE            
LK MI LAKE BREEZE COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING              
HAS ALLOWED A SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE               
REGION. SB CAPES OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG PER RUC13 PROGS INDICATED THAT             
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE                       
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY GIVEN ADDED LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT PER              
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. HAVE ALLOWED SCT TS/SH MENTION TO CONTINUE               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING AFTER            
SUNSET...ONLY BEING SUPPORTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS IS IN LINE            
WITH NAM12/RUC13/AND GFS PROGS. GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE PER                
GRB/DVN 12Z RAOB AND PROGGED RUC SOUNDINGS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST           
FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES...ESPECIALLY             
GIVEN HIGH PW. WINDEX VALUES OF 58 KNOTS CONFIRM THIS. HAVE ADDED               
GUSTY WINDS IN WX MENTION. EVERYTHING SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE            
EVENING.                                                                        
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A WEAKENING SW TROUGH IS ENTERING NW IA AND COULD            
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE OLD SFC BOUNDARY.                 
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS WAVE COULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT             
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS INDICATED BY NAM12 SI AND H85             
THETA-E PROGS. HOWEVER...ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE.                  
FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMING WOULD PRECLUDE ANY               
ELEVATED CONVECTION. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER                   
CONFIDENCE IS REACHED.                                                          
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE             
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SH/TS IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THIS RESIDUAL               
BOUNDARY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL                     
SUPPORT...DRY OPTION IS BEST FOR NOW. ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK SE DOWN TOWARD THE UPPER               
MIDWEST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY MAKE IT                
INTO THE CWA LATE OVERNIGHT THUR. BUT...WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT              
THIS TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS ON INSTABILITY AND TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE            
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DEVELOPING RIDGE AND                     
QUESTIONS PERTAINING TO ITS POSITION AND INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA.  AFTER A DRASTIC FLOP IN THE GFS LAST NIGHT THE 12Z RUN IS                
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z/06Z PREDECESSORS DIGGING A TROF OVER             
THE EASTERN US AND HOLDING THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST.  THIS KEEPS                  
CWA ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND               
BEFORE FINALLY BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.  THE            
00Z EC HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND EVOLVES SIMILARLY            
BUT BUILDS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT FASTER TO THE EAST WITH A WARMER                  
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE RECENT GFS CONCERNS HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE EC              
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WHILE NOTING BOTH MODELS CONTINUE THE                 
TREND OF DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE IN FAVOR OF             
EASTERN TROF WHICH WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS SEASON.  WOULD NOT BE             
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.                        
MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG BNDRY THAT PUSHES THROUGH             
FRI NITE/SAT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN EARNEST OVER THE AREA INTO              
THE NEW WEEK. DESPITE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN ITS DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY        
IGNORE THIS FEATURE WITH IT SHOWING UP ACROSS VARIOUS MODEL SOLNS SO            
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON AREA WIDE CARRYING OVER IN EASTERN            
PORTIONS FRI NITE.                                                              
SIDE EFFECT OF SLOWER TIMING WITH RIDGE IS PERSISTENCE OF HEAT                  
LONGER INTO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS NOW PROGGED NEAR 90 THROUGH THE               
END OF THE EXTENDED AND THE INFLUENCE OF BNDRY POISED JUST TO THE N             
OF CWA PUSHED BACK TO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THIS RANGE FOR THE            
FCST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.  WILL ALSO LEAVE  TAIL END OF EXTENDED             
DRY FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF RIDING AND THE ASSOC              
BNDRY TO THE NORTH IS LOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS              
BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON VIS SAT AND SFC OBS...EXTENDING SE FROM                 
GYY TO NEAR GSH AND EAST. ADDED CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTH END OF LK              
MI FROM THE LK BREEZE IS ALLOWING SOME ENHANCED CU TO DEVELOP.                  
GIVEN SB CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND CONTINUED HEATING                      
EXPECTING A FEW TS TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL                  
PROPAGATE SE. HAVE ADDED VCTS AND CB MENTION AT SBN...BUT NOT                   
EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL. HAVE DONE THE SAME FOR              
FWA...WHERE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN              
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE OPTED OUT OF A TEMPO FOR NOW.                                
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH                 
CONVECTION CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADDED BR MENTION              
AT FWA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...LEAVING SBN VFR                 
UNTIL BETTER INDICATIONS ARE PRESENT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
353 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW SPINNING JUST                  
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE             
IS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE ROTATING THROUGH THE             
BASE OF THE LOW. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER MANITOBA AS A SURFACE LOW             
IS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH            
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THEN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A                      
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING OVER MANITOBA STRETCHING INTO THE                
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING SOME SUN ACROSS THE AREA.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND THU)                                                
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST                            
QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO WESTERN                  
ONTARIO. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA. THE LOW                 
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. SWILL BE LIGHT UNDER               
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED             
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED WEAK INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD              
TO SOME FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY ONLY TO 2 MILES IN PLACES. DENSE FOG            
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.               
THE QUEBEC LOW WILL EDGE EASTWARD A LITTLE...DRAWING THE SHORTWAVE              
EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST              
AREA. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.               
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MORNING AND WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH             
IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE                
WILL BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND 850MB...HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT CAP              
WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                                      
.LONG TERM... (THU NIGHT THRU WED)                                              
THU NIGHT/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING ESE              
INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING                  
ACROSS MN/IA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.            
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...THE LOCATION OF THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL                     
JET/STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION/GREATEST INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A SE              
MOVING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD PASS TO S OF THE FCST AREA              
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. FARTHER N...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL              
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT/850MB TROF                    
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES HEADING FOR THE UPPER LAKES.                
WITH MODEST 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 40-60M AND ELEVATED                      
INSTABILITY (ABOVE SFC BASED INVERSION...GFS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES            
OF 200-600J/KG WHILE THE NAM IS AS HIGH AS AROUND 1000J/KG)...                  
PROBABLY CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT               
CHC POPS OVER THE W HALF LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND INCREASE              
POPS TO CHC CATEGORY OVER THE E FRI AFTN AS MLCAPE BUILDS TO AROUND             
1000J/KG PRIOR TO FROPA.                                                        
SAT THRU WED...OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS              
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AND THAT IS FOR THE RIDGE             
OVER THE SW STATES TO EXPAND EWD OVER THE WEEKEND SO THAT FOR THE               
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN HALF OF THE                 
CONUS. END RESULT WILL BE AN EWD EXPANSION OF HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION                  
BECOMING FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL PERIODIC CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER              
JET ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE HEAT TO THE S. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL                  
PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...TODAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE                 
ADDED A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES REGION. FIRST UP...SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE HEADING THRU THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI WILL NOW SET UP A MORE AMPLIFIED NE CONUS TROF            
THIS WEEKEND. GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE WRLY INITIALLY WITH THIS TROF            
THAN THE ECWMF. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...END RESULT IS THE SAME FOR               
UPPER MI AS SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER LAKES IN              
THE WAKE OF THE TROF. SO...SAT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM/HUMID AS              
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN. PER             
HPC PREFERENCE...FROM SUN ONWARD...WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF              
WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS. THAT                
SAID...THERE IS STILL LITTLE OR NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING SHORTWAVES              
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE            
NRN STATES ON THE EDGE OF THE HOT DOME TO THE S. SINCE INHERITED                
FCST HAD POPS MENTIONED FOR SUN AND DRY WEATHER MON...WILL MAINTAIN             
CONTINUITY AS THERE IS STILL SOME SUPPORT FOR THAT SCENARIO. WITH               
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL ADD POPS TUE AND GO WITH A DRY DAY FOR               
THE NEW DAY 7 (WED). AS FOR TEMPS...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT               
WEEK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE HOT/HUMID DAYS                    
DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AND HOW FAR N THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN              
CONUS EXTENDS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...FOR NOW...WILL             
TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPS UNTIL RIDGE STRENGTH/SHORTWAVE            
TIMING BECOME MORE CERTAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WED AS             
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS               
MORNING. CMX ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME MVFR CIG CLOUDS                    
ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL               
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT              
CMX WHERE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE                 
AREA...SOME OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WILL REFORM WITH THE                   
COOLING. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TAF SITES UNDER THE                    
EXPECTATION OF REFORMING...BUT LOWER CIGS MAY OCCUR. RADIATIONAL                
COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND                   
SUNRISE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.              
WINDS ARE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT              
WITH MANY MODEL DIFFERENCES. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A                       
ECMWF/GEM/NAM BLEND. THIS GIVES US A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH                  
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER             
LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY HEADS EAST             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL PART OF                    
FORECAST AREA...THUS ADJUSTED AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT             
FOR TREND.  EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER              
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...THUS EXPECT              
ONLY LIMITED WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTED             
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. BREAKS IN STRATUS EVIDENT ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO             
REBOUND A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH DECIDED TO LOWER MAXIMUM               
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN EARLY FORECAST.                           
SF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.  ADDITIONAL RAIN             
FALLING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH                   
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/547 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/                                                    
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAS SHIFTED INTO            
SERN KS WITH AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH            
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATEST GFS/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE            
ON THE SITUATION AS THE NAM QPF HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAR NORTH                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
A RATHER SHARP H7/H5 DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIMITED THE NWD EXTENT OF             
THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD...FM KC AREA ENE TO NR MACON. THIS IS WELL              
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH THE GFS TO SHIFT THIS AXIS SLOWLY SE THROUGH             
THE DAY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE H8/H7 THETAE RIDGE WAS POSITION NR THE               
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...2-2.5               
PRECIPITABLE WATER...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUD            
TOPS HAVE WARMED THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED.                      
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING              
BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS DIURNAL DECREASE IN THE            
AFTN.                                                                           
SINCE RADAR TRENDS VERIFY THE LATEST GFS...HAVE REMOVED THE XTRM NRN            
EXTENT OF THE FFA.                                                              
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT. MORE                    
CONFIDENT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED           
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY.                                                           
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND              
FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.                                   
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THREAT OF PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT ALL THREE TERMINAL              
SITES...THUS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH 00Z WILL BE CEILING              
AND VISIBILITY TRENDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH                     
MID-AFTERNOON AT KSTJ...WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILING                    
BECOMING SCATTERED BEFORE 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS AT KMCI AND KMKC                  
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CATEGORY BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH LOW VFR            
CEILING PERSISTING UNTIL 00-01Z BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED. SKIES                
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...A MOIST AIR MASS AND WET            
GROUND...MVFR AND IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL THREE                   
TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z.                                             
SF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.  ADDITIONAL RAIN             
FALLING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH                   
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/547 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/                                                    
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAS SHIFTED INTO            
SERN KS WITH AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH            
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATEST GFS/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE            
ON THE SITUATION AS THE NAM QPF HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAR NORTH                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
A RATHER SHARP H7/H5 DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIMITED THE NWD EXTENT OF             
THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD...FM KC AREA ENE TO NR MACON. THIS IS WELL              
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH THE GFS TO SHIFT THIS AXIS SLOWLY SE THROUGH             
THE DAY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE H8/H7 THETAE RIDGE WAS POSITION NR THE               
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...2-2.5               
PRECIPITABLE WATER...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUD            
TOPS HAVE WARMED THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED.                      
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING              
BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS DIURNAL DECREASE IN THE            
AFTN.                                                                           
SINCE RADAR TRENDS VERIFY THE LATEST GFS...HAVE REMOVED THE XTRM NRN            
EXTENT OF THE FFA.                                                              
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT. MORE                    
CONFIDENT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED           
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY.                                                           
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND              
FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.                                   
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED           
WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL                    
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE TO THE VFR            
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN IS LATE TONIGHT.               
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...A MOIST AIR MASS              
AND WET GROUND...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE LIKELY.                     
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
335 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...MAIN CHALLENGES ARE LOW POPS...AS WELL AS HIGHS THROUGH 7 DAYS...            
THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE                 
FORECAST AREA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL                 
DAYS.  12Z OAX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM AND CAPPED BOUNDARY            
LAYER.  THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY A FUNCTION             
OF HOW THIS AIRMASS MIGHT CHANGE...AND WHAT FORCING MECHANISMS                  
COULD PUSH PARCELS TO THE LFC.  OR...IF EXISTING UPSTREAM CONVECTION            
COULD BE SUSTAINED IN THIS AIRMASS.                                             
IN THE NEAR TERM OF TONIGHT...A SMALL AND DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS            
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA HAS PUSHED A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARY INTO THE OMAHA-COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREA PER VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS.                          
HOWEVER...LFC HEIGHT AS ESTIMATED FROM RUC SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OAX                
SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE AROUND 8000 FEET AGL...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN              
THE OUTFLOW CAN LIFT.  OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AND IS             
DECELERATING.  KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES               
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                 
BOUNDARY OR ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MIGHT MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM             
SOUTH DAKOTA.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA SO CONVECTION THERE IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD FOLLOW SOUTHEAST             
ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS OVERNIGHT.                                             
FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A VERY LOW             
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO                   
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MEANWHILE...MID                  
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE BUILDING            
UPPER RIDGE.  THEREFORE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE CAPPING                
INVERSION STRENGTHENS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW FROM 150 J/KG             
TO 350 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  THIS FRONT LOOKS TOO WEAK TO             
PUSH THROUGH THAT STRONG OF A CAP.  ONLY POSSIBILITY MIGHT AGAIN BE             
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST.  KEPT SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                       
BY MID DAY SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL                    
PLAINS...THE H5 HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5910 METERS...AND A               
HOT AND CAPPED AIRMASS WILL HAVE A STRONG HOLD ON THE FORECAST                  
AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S...AND CONVECTION            
SHOULD BE FULLY SUPPRESSED.                                                     
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF MODEL WAS FAVORED OVER THE GFS BY HPC DUE             
TO BETTER CONTINUITY...AND THE ECMWF HELD ONTO THE STRONG RIDGING               
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...IT STILL SHOWED             
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION            
TUESDAY.  AGAIN WE FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM AND               
CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION.                    
STILL FEEL THE GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING A BIAS OF BEING            
TOO WARM PER RECENT VERIFICATION...THUS KEPT FORECAST A FEW DEGREES             
BELOW GFS MOS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT THE               
100-105 RANGE STARTING SATURDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT IN              
THE HWO.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 31/18Z.                                       
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES DURING            
THE FCST PD...THUS A FEW SCT CLDS TODAY AND SOME MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE            
ESPECIALLY AT KOFK/KOMA LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.  DID INCLUDE             
MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT KOMA AND KLNK EARLY                  
THURSDAY MORNING.  SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS               
FROM THE SW AFTER 15Z.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...NIETFELD/KURTZ                                                     
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
338 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. A                
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. A                
PIEDMONT TROF WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY                 
FRIDAY AND STALL. HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE                  
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE              
COAST BY SUNDAY. &&                                                             
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG            
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE BEST               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LIES. SREF/RUC STILL POINTING AT BEST CHC              
OF CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH             
THOUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BRING ANY DEVELOPMENT               
EASTWARD. THEREFORE LEFT ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CWA THROUGH             
THIS EVENING. WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY            
TO END LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF...LEAVING                 
ANOTHER QUIET BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE            
LOWER TO MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING            
IN THE 70S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                     
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE                      
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROF THAT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO               
THE COAST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS               
PERIOD EVEN NEAR THE COAST AS WEAK SEA BREEZE DOES LITTLE TO BRING              
RELIEF. HAVE ABOUT 40 POPS OVER THE INLAND AREAS FOR THURSDAY                   
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE TROF WITH JUST ABOUT 30 POPS NEAR THE              
COAST. HAVE KEPT THE POPS AROUND 30 PCT FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVELS              
A BIT WARM TO SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE COAST AS TROF                  
MOVES NEAR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS OR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY                
WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE WEAK SEA BREEZE. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND               
OF THE MET AND GFS MOS DATA FOR THE TEMPS WHICH WILL BE ABOVE                   
CLIMO FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
AS OF 3 PM...WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF AND            
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  THIS                
COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT UNSETTLED THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT A WESTERLY             
COMPONENT THRU A VERY DEEP LAYER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.              
BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS            
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CLIMO TEMPS AND             
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.                     
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE                
COAST...AND WITH DEWPOINTS NOT MIXING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S              
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE                 
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 105.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
LATEST VISIBLE PICS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPING                    
ACROSS EASTERN SC SPREADING NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION SOME CU IS                   
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH               
INLAND. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH CONVECTION                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND FARTHER INLAND                 
NEAR THE PIEDMONT TROF. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO               
HEAVY RAIN BUT THE DURATION IS TOO SHORT TO PUT THEM IN THE                     
PREVAILING GROUPS. BEST TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND               
01Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT THE COAST AS THE                  
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.                                      
CONVECTION DIES DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH SOME DEBRIS              
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF               
THE TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS AT THE INLAND                    
TERMINALS AFTER 10Z.  THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH DID A GREAT JOB            
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS BULLISH TONIGHT WITH THE               
STRATUS.  WITH THAT SAID LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LOWER PART OF THE            
ATMOSPHERE AND THE PROSPECTS OF SOME RAIN TODAY MAY MAKE US EVEN                
MORE MOIST TONIGHT.  GIVEN THIS I PUT IN IFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS               
FOR NOW WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER TO 06Z.  WITH            
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH                  
8K...IF THIS STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IT                 
ADVANCING INTO THE MYRTLES TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                     
OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA                    
THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE              
CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.                 
OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND                 
KEEPS THE AREA DRY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGH OVER INLAND            
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP UP A SWLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONCE               
AGAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KTS             
OR SO AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS              
ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH 2 TO 4                  
FEET CLOSER TO SHORE...MAY EVEN SEE UP TO 6 FEET OUT TOWARDS                    
FRYING PAN. A WEAK TROF MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT REGION TO THE COAST             
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR WINDS              
STILL REMAINING FROM THE SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS RUNNING ABOUT               
2 TO 3 FT. WITH TROF NEARING THE COAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING                
IN THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS OVER THE WATERS               
FOR THE PERIOD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM...WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL SW WIND DIRECTION THROUGH                  
THE PERIOD...WITH THE SEABREEZE DRIVING AN OSCILLATION TO S/SSW                 
EACH AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS EVEN WESTERLY IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY              
MORNING HRS. SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 15 KT...THO A                     
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED PIEDMONT TROF COULD GIVE US 15-20 KT AT                  
SOME POINT. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FT...NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM                
WW3 GUIDANCE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS.../MAC                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MAC                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...EH                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
330 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                                         
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY.                    
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY             
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE ITS TIME              
GETTING THROUGH THE AREA. RUC MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH             
FORMING ACROSS SE LOWER MI AND SW ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHING            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO LEAVE A                   
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE EARLY               
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT EXTENSIVE UNLESS A LINE               
FORMS...WHICH I DOUBT SINCE IT IS REALLY NOT THAT UNSTABLE OUT                  
THERE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREFER WARMER              
TEMP GUIDANCE WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH EXCEPT EXTREME NE OH/NW              
PA WHERE THERE WAS ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WAS COOLED.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                   
MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR THURSDAY. TROUGH WILL NOT BE SOUTH            
OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND BELIEVE WE WILL              
SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF TSTORMS DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER INLAND NE            
OH/NW PA. SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS NW OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE                 
DURING THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT AND DROP TO THE LOWER                 
60S...NOT EXACTLY CRISP AND COMFORTABLE BUT AN IMPROVEMENT WHICH                
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAX TEMP GUIDANCE            
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM. WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER             
80S NW PA TO THE UPPER 80S NW OH.                                               
MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.                
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. ALL MODELS HAVE              
SETTLED IN ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF THE HEAT... CLOSER TO THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE DELAY IS PARTLY DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE                    
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE                     
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY SET OFF                           
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SHOULD MOVE SSE TOWARD               
THE FCST AREA (NW OHIO) BY FRIDAY EVENING. NOT SURE AT THAT POINT               
WHERE THE STORMS WOULD TRACK OR HOW LONG THEY WOULD LAST. FRIDAY                
WILL NOT BE THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A DERECHO              
OR HUGE TSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ROAR ACROSS THE AREA BUT CERTAINLY                 
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR A WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT             
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS THE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.              
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND TIMING OF ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE UNCERTAIN...            
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTORM OR TWO AROUND ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF              
THE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HAS NOT CLEARED THE AREA.               
THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAINFREE THOUGH AND WILL USE SLIGHT              
CHANCE POP (15-24 PERCENT). TEMPS SATURDAY MAYBE A CATEGORY WARMER              
THAN FRIDAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING HIGH ACROSS AREA                     
SUNDAY...THEN STALLING HIGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WARM UP            
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS SHOW FRONT STALLING ACROSS             
CENTRAL LAKES BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CHC OF TSRA TUES AND                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
SHOWERS/TSRA NE OHIO MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE EAST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 20Z. CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN SANDUSKY AND               
LORAIN WILL SPREAD OVER AREA BY 21Z. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED                   
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER AREA. TSRA WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.                     
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR BR TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT BURN OFF               
BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS LAKE HURON WILL                  
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME                  
TSRA TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF CLE.                       
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY                
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY                
PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS                  
WITH LOCAL NON VFR WEATHER. VFR AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
MOVING BACK IN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LAKE BREEZE TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND THEN FLOW ON LAKE TO BE MORE              
CLOSELY CONNECTED TO SYNOPTIC FLOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE            
MIDWEST/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                 
POSSIBLE PRECEDING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING                   
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION OR SPEED WITH               
THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT MORE SO WITH TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS THURSDAY.               
THIS IS WHEN WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON                                                             
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK                                                             
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                            
LONG TERM...DJB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
214 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER              
ONE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY                
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SUPPORT THE 12Z NAM AND RUC FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE VORT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO WILL CLIP             
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS IT MOVES EAST...WHILE ANOTHER VORT OVER                
WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN             
AREAS. THE PROBLEM IS...WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS AND FLOW WITH THESE              
VORTS...HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR                       
CONVECTION. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE INVADING FROM THE WEST FROM                  
DIURNALLY DYING CONVECTION FROM THE KENTUCKY VORT...AND IS SUPPORTED            
BY PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES...SO WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT                      
OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL              
ACT TO LIMIT THE HEATING POTENTIAL AND CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER            
WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH                
HEATING IN THE MOIST ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE            
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO...BEST POPS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE EAST               
AND SOUTH WHERE BEST HEATING WILL INTERACT WITH THE VORTS. WILL GO              
LIKELY THERE AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...LOWERED TEMPS A FEW              
DEGREES IN THE WEST WITH ALL THE CLOUDS.                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DYING MCS ACROSS THE OH              
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THESE CLOUDS                
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE               
MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME             
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT COULD SERVE AS FOCUS MECHANISM             
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE             
ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1800 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BOTH GFS            
AND NAM BRING A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT AS H5 VORT MAXES MOVING FROM                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE LOCATIONS             
OF WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL OCCUR.                            
WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...WENT COOLER THAN MET AND                   
MAV...ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.             
TONIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.                               
ANY PREDAWN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                          
MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF            
THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE             
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY THURSDAY      
NIGHT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.           
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY...WITH HOT AND DRY            
WEATHER ANTICIPATED.                                                            
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE                  
REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...                   
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. HAVE CHOSEN TO GO                      
BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE NAM...TOO SLOW...AND GFS...TOO FAST.                   
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ALSO CHOSEN TO INTRODUCE ONLY LOW                 
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY.                                                       
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH DRY WEATHER                       
ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.                                   
MIN T GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS AND MAX T GRIDS FOR                   
THURSDAY APPEAR REASONABLE...SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.                
LATEST MEX NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPEAR TOO                   
COOL...BUT HAVE TWEEKED THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY A DEGREE OR TWO TO                
REFLECT THE COOLER GUIDANCE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC THINKING DURING THIS PERIOD.  UPPER LEVEL                
TROUGH IS PROGGED ALONG EAST COAST AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD.  THIS                
FEATURE MOVES EAST BY MONDAY...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOT               
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.                                    
LATEST THINKING IS THAT AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH            
OF REGION...RESULTING IN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS               
AREA.  LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON            
TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE                  
WEST. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                
FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
15Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE                      
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING THREAT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. BEST                   
CHANCES ARE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LEAST AND                
ALLOW FOR HEATING. EXPECT LOTS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF A PKB              
TO CRW LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO LIMIT CONVECTION.                     
THUS...MENTIONED ONLY CB AT PKB...HTS AND CRW WITH NO TEMP PERIOD               
FRO THUNDER. INCLUDED TEMP PERIOD 19Z-23Z OF THUNDER AT                         
EKN...BKW...AND CKB. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE                      
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VERY                         
DIFFICULT...AS CONVECTION WILL LIKLEY DIMINISH GREATLY WITH LOSS                
OF HEATING...BUT FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE WHERE IT RAINS THIS                        
AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO ADDRESS               
FOG OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z THU/...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR                
CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THUR EVENING INTO FRI                
ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES...PKB AND CKB. NO                       
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FORECAST FRI AFTERNOON THRU SUN.                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE ENTIRE CLI FOR EKN IS MISSING AGAIN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
NO CHANGE IN THE ASOS STATUS AT EKN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMV                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JSH                                                                 
AVIATION...JMV                                                                  
CLIMATE...                                                                      
EQUIPMENT...                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1153 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH AND NOW THE REGION IS                  
NEARLY CLOUD FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ON TRACK TO MEET                     
FORECASTED HIGHS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE CHANCE                 
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION ACROSS             
CENTRAL SD AND OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE WHOLE                      
FORECAST HINGES ON TWO THINGS...MID LEVEL CAP TEMPERATURES AND                  
DEWPOINTS. MODEL H7 TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS NEARLY 1C...AND                       
DETERMINES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CAPED AND UNCAPPED. IN THE SAME               
RESPECT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS...OF WHICH THE MODEL SUITE IS DOING                 
FAIRLY WELL WHEN COMPARED TO MSAS OBSERVATIONS...ARE THE SECOND                 
LINCHPIN OF THE FORECAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR                  
ABOVE THE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER. AM UNSURE HOW EFFECTIVELY DRIER               
AIR WILL COUNTERACT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND                            
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND GUIDANCE CONSERVATION IN BL MOISTURE                   
THROUGH THE DAY IS FEASIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE                    
OCCURRING IN A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT OF 2-3000J/KG AND CURVED                   
HODOGRAPHS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAK                   
RIPPLE AT 700 MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. VORT MAX ALSO MOVING                   
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH LLJ IN                
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. ALL THIS IS              
INTERACTING WITH JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ACCAS              
AND ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC/NAM PICKING UP                
ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE                  
MORNING HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT                 
FURTHER EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WARM FRONT POSITION BECOMING               
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON SFC OBS THIS MORNING WITH PIR/HON/BKX                
SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND OBS TO THE NORTH WITH EITHER LIGHT                  
EASTERLY WINDS OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT              
TO BASICALLY REMAIN IN THIS POSITION ALL DAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS EVEN THOUGH A LARGE                  
PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. SVR PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT              
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN                
GET GOING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. 700 MB TEMPS                  
BEGIN TO INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE               
FORECAST AREA...APPROACHING 15 DEGREES C. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD               
REMAIN CAPPED...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN                
CWA AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS                   
NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO              
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS               
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE               
PLAINS STATES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL                    
DAMPEN SOME ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS                       
CANADA...BUT THEN BUILDS RIGHT BACK UP ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE FRONT              
WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE GREAT               
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER MINNESOTA                
AND WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE                  
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PUSHES TO                
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...THEN FURTHER NORTHWARD AS THE                 
LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD                 
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY                
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND              
THE EXITING FRONT ON TUESDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION               
CHANCES WITH EITHER OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES AS H7 TEMPS WILL BE                 
IN THE +12 TO +18 DEGREE RANGE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                 
NIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT                
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                     
MONDAY...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIPITATION BEING              
ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG CAP.                                           
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS                    
WELL...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EVERY DAY EXCEPT                  
TUESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100+ DEGREES              
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DUE TO                     
ABUNDANT RAIN AND GREENNESS ACROSS THE AREA...WILL STICK WITH                   
TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR NOW. WILL SEE A TOUCH OF A COOL DOWN ON                    
TUESDAY AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE                    
SURFACE HIGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME ISOLD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE EXTREME              
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE FEW REMAINING CELLS                
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SCT MID AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SCT                
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A                          
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.                           
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...CONNELLY                                                               
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...GIONTA                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
251 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW WELL INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH THE                
AXIS ORIENTED FROM SW KANSAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS             
ALSO WELL DEFINED IN THE RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGES               
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AS THE             
RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL                  
REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES                  
REMAIN SMALL AND DWINDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXISTS ON FRIDAY BUT ATTM THE CHANCE IS TOO               
SMALL TO MENTION AND KEPT 10 POPS. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
WILL BE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE            
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE STRONG AND A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGITS IS              
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW               
RECORD LEVELS.                                                                  
A WEAK FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF           
NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY FARTHER INTO                
NORTH TEXAS THAN A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO EASTLAND. ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO REDEVELOP THIS                
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN                   
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF               
THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN              
SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MODELS AND MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT                             
TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND                      
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP 30 POPS                      
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AND THEN THE                  
FORECAST LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT.                                                  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE MOS                 
GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AND IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS            
FORECAST. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE               
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.                                   
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  78 100  81 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
WACO, TX              78 100  78 100  79 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             74  97  74  99  77 /  30  30  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            76  99  77 100  78 /  30  10  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  76 101  77 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            80  98  80 101  82 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           77  98  76 100  77 /  30  30  10  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  98  77 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            76  98  75  99  75 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/82                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL STAY WITH THE THEME THAT WK FNTL BNDY NOW DRAPED FROM NEAR KTSA...         
KADM...KRPH...KABI...LINE WILL CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ESE TOWARD D/FW METRO        
BY 00Z/AFTR. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG BNDY BY 21Z             
TWD KXBP/KLUD/KMWL/KMKN/KBKD AREAS IN THE WRN N TX...THEN PUSH EWD.             
MAY TREND A LITTLE LATER THAN CWSU WITH VCTS AND EITHER TEMPO/PROB30            
FOR KDFW/KDAL BY 02Z-03Z AND THRU 12Z. MAY KEEP THESE CONVECTIVE GROUPS         
VFR FOR NOW...THOUGH MVFR IS PSBL CONSIDERING WHAT WAS SEEN WITH HEAVIER        
RAIN THIS PREV MRNG.                                                            
SSW WND ARND 10 KTS SHD BE SELY 8-12 KTS AFTR 00Z...THEN GO S/SWLY              
ARND 10 KTS AGAIN BY 12Z THURS/AFTR. AFTR 12Z...MAY JUST MAINTAIN VCTS          
/VCSH WORDING AS OUTFLOW DRIVING CONVECTION SHD BE PUSHING SE AWAY FROM         
D/FW TAFS/AIRPORTS...HOWEVER SHD BE AFFECTING KACT BY THEN...ALONG WITH         
SOME STRATUS.                                                                   
/05                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER PARTS OF THE                  
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT               
THIS HOUR. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE                  
I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF I-20 BUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO              
BE DRY. CHANCE CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THAT ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20                
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER ALL THE AREA. BY LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER REFIRING                
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE                  
INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 22Z AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST                   
HIGHER FOR TONIGHT.                                                             
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ADJUSTED BASED ON                    
CURRENT TRENDS. DID MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...TO                
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST AND DECREASE A DEGREE IN THE               
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/                         
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
/AS REPRESENTED IN RUC 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS/                      
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO OUR WESTERN CWA AND INTO               
THE BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS SHEAR ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH                 
TEXAS TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.                                 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER              
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.                 
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO BE QUITE HOT THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S COMMON AREA WIDE.                                      
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH                
TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS AT                  
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
OTHERWISE...CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER               
THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO                  
SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.                                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              99  79  99  79  99 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             95  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  77  98 /  20  30  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  98  75  98 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            98  79  99  80  98 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  97 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  96  76  97 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  98  76  96 /  20  30  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/82                                                                           
</pre> tx