PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FRI OCT 31 2003

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - NOV 10 2003
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .

THE MODELS AT DAY 5 ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A RIDGE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE 
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH COMPARED TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS 
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS PHASED WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT SHEARS
OUT THE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
 
DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A CLOSED-OFF RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA...A POSITIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A CLOSED-OFF RIDGE 
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE WEST COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...DAVA AND 6Z GFS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE DAVA 
AND 6Z GFS ARE A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THE
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
VERY LITTLE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS AND SOMEWHAT LARGER SPREAD OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC AND NEAR ALASKA.

MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY... 5 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST 
THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS
0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF 
SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7...50 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8.

THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST   
GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...MOS
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE...BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA 
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS
MODELS AND BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE
HEIGHT CENTER AT 38N 78W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 40N 115W.


THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 
BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND
INDIVIDUAL MODELS...THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z 
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ON TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER
AT 38N 78W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 40N 115W.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - NOV 14 2003

FOR WEEK 2 THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHEARS SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH TO THE EAST...WHICH ACTS TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO HANG BACK JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RESULT IS
THAT MUCH OF THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF...IS DOMINATED
BY FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS SUPPRESSED WITH THE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LEAVES LESS TROUGH BEHIND OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST COMPARED TO THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 6Z GFS 
AND DAVA FORECAST A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN AND INDICATE 
A COAST TO COAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY 
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE 
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...4 ON
A SCALE OF 1 TO 5...DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...MODERATE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD AND GOOD CONTINUITY FROM DAYS 6-10.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT
OF TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAYS
0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS
DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11.

THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST 
GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS 
TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BLENDED HEIGHT CHART...THE BIAS CORRECTED
850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 35N 86W.

THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE
0Z GFS...ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS...NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS
TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BLENDED HEIGHT FIELDS AND ON
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 35N 86W.

FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER 
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
NOTES: 

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:---------------------------------------------

AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS
THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE
IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED.

ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER
WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN
THE HISTORICAL RECORD.  THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS
OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS.  TWO MAPS WILL JUST
BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN
CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%.  TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH
HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE.
ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION
BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE.  PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES.
THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY
WELL.

ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE
AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE
AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR.

AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE
POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING
SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES.  THE AO IS
CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO
INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS
POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL.  THE PHASE OF THE AO IS
CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID-
LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN.

BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS.  WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE
FORECASTER.  THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1.  WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED
BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE
WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST.

CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES.

DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL.  THIS IS A
BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE
PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL.
REFERENCE:  QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS
OF AN NWP MODEL.  MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287.

EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO.

ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION.

FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS -
THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON
THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.  WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE
SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS.

GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM.  THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS
THE MRF AND AVN MODELS.  THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS
CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST -
ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN
FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.

GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME
TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS.  THERE
ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE.  THE AVERAGE OF THESE
IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL -
WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW -
AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE.  UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE
STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA.  500-HPA SYSTEMS
CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER.

HPA - HECTO-PASCALS.  1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR.

LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO.

MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE
NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY
AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE
OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED
CLIMO.

MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS
CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER
THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND.  NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR
8-14 DAYS.

MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING
AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE
SPECIFICATION METHOD.  IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION
OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. 

MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL
OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND
SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION.

NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN.  IT CAN ALSO
BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION)
TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE
AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND
DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN
PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND
(STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE
REVERSE ANOMALIES.

PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN.

PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST.

PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF
ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS)
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES.

RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES
OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO
THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST
TO EAST MOTION.

RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT.

SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF
THE 500-HPA FIELD.

SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST.

SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE
HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.  KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL
NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM
1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA
HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT.

TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. 

UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT).

WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST.

EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST.

NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH

SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST
DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST
FLOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... 
THURSDAY NOV 20 2003.



 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19591110 - 19661104 - 19861107 - 19911020 - 19861110
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19591110 - 19861107 - 19861110 - 19501108 - 19931103
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE     TEMP  PCPN   STATE     TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF  B    B 
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA     B    N 
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING    B    A 
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO   B    A 
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA   N    A 
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA   N    A 
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS    N    A 
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI   A    A 
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN  A    A 
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN   A    A 
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY   A    A 
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK   A    B 
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE      N    B 
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE ISL  A    B 
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA A    N 
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA   A    N 
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA    A    N 
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE B    A 
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN N    A 
AK S INT    N    N     AK S COAST  B    N     AK PNHDL   B    N 

8 to 14 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE     TEMP  PCPN   STATE     TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF  B    B 
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA     B    B 
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING    N    N 
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO   B    N 
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA   N    A 
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA   A    A 
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS    N    A 
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI   A    A 
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN  A    A 
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN   A    A 
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY   A    N 
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK   A    N 
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE      N    B 
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE ISL  A    B 
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA A    N 
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA   A    B 
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA    A    B 
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE B    B 
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN B    N 
AK S INT    B    N     AK S COAST  B    N     AK PNHDL   B    A 

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N - NEAR NORMAL      A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
N - NEAR NORMAL  B - BELOW       B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$