FXUS04 KWBC 270959
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
458 AM EST MON JAN 27 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/1200 UTC THRU JAN 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

THE 0000 AND 0600 UTC GFS AND THE ETA RUNS WERE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FCST FOR THE NATION.   CHANGES
MADE FROM THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1 MOSTLY REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.   

...ERN U.S...

LGT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NRN NEW ENG EARLY IN THE PD AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF AND ASOCTD ARCTIC FRONT SWING ACROSS
THE AREA.   LITTLE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LGT MODEL QPFS HERE.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

A LGT WAA PCPN PATTERN WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY.   TO
THIS POINT IN TIME...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING PCPN AMTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CUT BACK ON AMTS FM GUIDANCE GIVEN
LACKING PW AVBLTY.

...NRN CA EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE N CNTRL PLAINS...

PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO OVRRUN A FRONTAL BAND PRESSING
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.   THE LAST OF THE MID LAT SHRTWVS
PER LATEST STLT IMAGERY IS NOW NEAR 130W AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE COAST BY THIS AFTN.   THE ETA AND GFS QPF GUIDANCE IS
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF PCPN ACROSS THIS
GNRL AREA AND OTHER THAN DRAWING A BIT MORE FOR TOPOGRAPHY
GNLY ACCEPTED THEIR SOLUTION.   THE TETONS ARE FAVORED BY BOTH
MODELS FOR THE HEAVIEST AMTS AS WLY FLOW PROVIDES STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THERE.   THE ETA IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS
WITH SPREADING PCPN EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND BASICALLY
COMPROMISED BTWN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ON SPECIFICS THERE.

DAY 2...

HEAVIEST PCPN IN THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE STREAKING EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LAKES INTO
THE MID-MS VALLEY BY 60 HRS.  MODEL PCPN TYPE ALGORITHMS INDICATE
AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN A BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NRN IN...NRN OH...INTO NWRN PA.  REFER TO THE
QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SNOW EVENT.  LIGHTER AMTS OF
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BUT LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN .15 INCH OR SO.  FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...PCPN WILL FALL AS
RAIN.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL HELP TO SHUNT MOST MOISTURE INTO BC BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN SNEAKING INTO THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA.  VERY LIGHT SNOW ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE NRN
ROCKIES AND HIGHER ELEVS OF WY AND CO.

DAY 3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST GETS ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE WRN RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND
DRIVES A FRONT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION IN THE OR COASTAL RANGES WHERE AT LEAST 1 INCH IS FCST.  

ERN U.S. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE HANGING
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  LOWER MS VALLEY CAN EXPECT RAINFALL IN
THE .50 TO 1 INCH RANGE PARTICULARLY OVER S-CNTRL LA...SRN MS AND
S-CNTRL AL.  LIGHTER AMTS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE.

KORTY/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 493658 491653 489651 485649 478646 469644 462644 458644
452646 
      444650 433659 426667 418677 412687 410696 411701 414703
419703 
      423702 431700 441700 448702 457707 461707 466705 475700
485693 
      488682 491670 493662 493658 
 0.01 536216 536209 535205 531195 526178 524173 522168 517162
508156 
      507161 499161 490161 484163 483167 484171 488179 493185
499189 
      504191 507193 511199 521213 526218 532219 536216 
 0.01 521270 522264 521260 520254 516248 515244 512233 510227
507225 
      502215 500208 495204 490203 481204 478204 474206 468209
461207 
      459207 456210 455210 454206 455202 460194 468183 471176
475173 
      479166 481158 482151 482134 469120 473108 472103 470098
465093 
      462085 462073 462066 460059 457049 454039 452031 451014
448000 
      445989 442979 439969 435956 432946 431941 432936 456948
471955 
      483959 492961 498961 502960 512956 517949 520944 521938
521927 
      517916 517900 515887 513875 510870 509866 505862 503857
501851 
      499846 495837 487825 461798 455792 448787 436782 430779
422779 
      416782 410786 404801 405808 407814 411822 417832 420839
421845 
      421851 421855 414862 412866 411874 415882 424896 425902
425904 
      422904 415909 412917 413920 416924 421927 427933 425938
421943 
      418955 417959 416966 419993 420008 420021 417040 412045
406050 
      403053 399054 391060 386062 384064 386068 383071 377072
373075 
      375078 378080 382079 386079 387082 389087 390091 394101
395102 
      393105 387109 382115 380121 381128 386131 393131 395134
392138 
      387141 384146 384151 383153 378154 376155 378158 382159
386160 
      384164 382170 382176 385181 387183 377184 370183 365186
368193 
      373201 377206 381212 382215 380218 378219 375218 373216
370215 
      368217 369225 371233 373235 377239 389242 395246 400249
406250 
      413249 423250 426251 430248 436242 441237 443236 444240
452244 
      459244 466248 479259 491271 497278 499281 503284 508286
512286 
      516281 
 0.01 501251 500250 499246 498246 497245 498247 500251 500252
501251 
 0.01 487228 486228 483227 480225 477224 475224 472224 474227
477227 
      480228 482231 482231 483231 486229 487228 
 0.01 456232 456231 453230 452230 453231 455232 456232 
 0.01 419095 418091 418088 419084 418083 415082 412083 412083
412085 
      413087 414091 413095 415097 418097 419095 
 0.01 403098 404095 404091 404087 404087 403087 401089 400091
400094 
      398097 397098 398100 401100 403099 403098 
 0.01 312977 311971 310968 307962 303959 297955 293954 289955
287959 
      287965 291975 292983 288993 286997 286003 289006 294005
301001 
      306994 310987 312977 
 0.01 265975 265971 263969 263969 261966 260965 257964 257963
254963 
      251963 250965 249966 248968 247971 249974 250975 253976
253977 
      256977 259977 261977 264975 265975 
 0.25 499232 498228 497227 495223 495226 495228 496231 497233
499232 
 0.25 468157 469154 468151 467148 463140 459135 455133 451132
451138 
      448143 444142 442138 440136 438136 435139 433144 432152
433161 
      438165 448176 443190 453189 459183 460179 460176 457176
455174 
      454170 455164 458160 462158 468157 
 0.25 460110 461106 459102 458098 456092 453089 445093 435094
428091 
      426092 428096 429100 427103 424104 422106 421109 420111
415111 
      412110 409101 406104 404108 400109 397112 394113 396114
403120 
      405122 410123 418126 420130 422135 426131 431123 434120
437118 
      443121 445123 450123 452121 460110 
 0.25 446220 445219 443217 440216 437216 434215 431213 429212
428215 
      425218 425218 422222 424225 426227 426227 429230 432230
434229 
      435228 438226 439226 442225 444224 445222 446220 
 0.25 453080 453076 452072 451068 450067 447067 444065 443064
441063 
      439064 439064 436067 435068 436070 436072 439074 441075
442076 
      444078 447080 447080 450084 453080 
 0.25 446043 446039 445035 444034 441034 438034 436036 436040
438042 
      439044 441045 444046 446043 
 0.25 423238 422236 419234 417233 413234 413235 413236 416238
419238 
      422238 423238 
 0.25 425174 427172 427169 425166 423158 421148 417146 413146
406148 
      400152 399157 399162 399170 404176 408176 410175 414180
418185 
      421186 422182 425174 
 0.25 412227 414222 414217 412215 407214 405209 398198 391196
387194 
      380191 373190 373194 377199 385208 393214 403224 402227
397229 
      398233 401234 404232 409230 412227 
 0.25 410072 411068 410065 407066 404066 401068 401068 399072
398074 
      397076 398077 401076 401076 403072 404070 407071 408072
410072 
      410072 
 0.50 454155 453153 450152 447152 444150 444149 442147 440145
439143 
      437144 436147 435148 435152 435153 436156 438159 440161
443161 
      444162 446165 449164 449163 452159 452158 454155 
 0.50 453114 452108 454101 453097 451096 447097 439097 432100
430105 
      423107 424110 423114 420115 413113 408110 406109 404112
405115 
      409116 413120 417120 420119 423119 425122 429120 433116
438114 
      443117 448117 453114 
 0.50 400215 401212 400210 399208 397205 395203 394203 392202
389200 
      387198 386197 384196 381195 379196 380200 381200 383203
384204 
      386206 388208 391209 391210 394212 396213 398215 399216
400215 
 1.00 445109 444107 441106 439108 441109 444111 445109  
 
24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 553149 547137 543127 539122 532120 526116 521115 518118
516124 
      517130 518136 520144 521148 521153 516152 510148 506143
494135 
      483126 478123 474121 469122 460129 454132 448135 445141
445146 
      448154 452160 456166 455177 454183 455187 459187 462184
470174 
      475170 481168 488167 492167 496170 499172 501176 503182
504188 
      506192 510198 521211 526214 530216 535217 
 0.01 445942 444921 442904 443894 447890 454893 466910 473918
479929 
      488929 495909 493880 495846 499829 513793 516766 508737
490712 
      462708 432714 413725 401745 393768 376795 366805 359815
350826 
      344834 338843 328860 319879 313888 303916 301930 304943
308953 
      304963 298973 294982 294989 301991 313979 321969 340947
350946 
      359944 369931 378917 390913 397927 406959 416981 419985
424988 
      429987 434983 437979 440973 442966 444957 444950 445942 
 0.01 528245 523241 518234 512222 506211 503209 499208 494209
488211 
      482212 480219 478221 475221 470224 467226 465230 467248
469254 
      472260 480271 489283 492287 499293 510298 
 0.01 451072 447064 441056 436036 431031 426029 420031 414035
409041 
      403046 395053 390057 384063 380070 379073 380076 381080
387086 
      398087 403087 407086 414080 421076 428076 437078 442079
447078 
      451072 
 0.25 516282 520269 517258 515252 510246 503238 498237 493242
489247 
      488256 490266 494273 498280 502283 506285 514286 516282 
 0.25 394812 386829 377840 374844 364862 361883 364890 374886
383874 
      394864 401864 405875 408891 412912 418930 426926 425902
425863 
      425847 425823 430807 434789 429775 422773 411782 405789
403793 
      401798 394812 
 0.50 507278 506273 506272 504267 503267 501264 499262 496264
497269 
      497269 500273 501275 502277 505279 507278 
 0.50 411858 410862 412866 413867 415867 416865 416864 417861
417857 
      416852 416847 414846 413846 411852 411858  
 
24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 511678 508668 506662 503657 500656 498653 495647 495640
492633 
      488625 483620 476617 466616 460616 454619 450621 444625
438630 
      433635 428641 425648 424655 424665 423672 417678 411684
407691 
      404696 401702 394712 391718 387722 379733 367735 356730
348735 
      344741 338753 329775 322795 306843 300864 294886 293898
292913 
      292929 290944 291955 292961 295966 297972 300976 306977
310976 
      312974 315969 317962 318956 321949 337930 345920 351911
362894 
      369883 374871 380858 385852 388845 396834 403825 412824
421816 
      426811 429809 431810 432815 432821 431829 427836 422842
417848 
      414853 413860 416865 418868 420868 425870 432869 436870
448865 
      455865 460872 462881 461892 462904 466909 472906 480896
486881 
      488875 488870 488858 485849 483845 474830 471822 470813
472805 
      476797 483782 490768 496757 500749 502743 504737 505730
509701 
      509696 511689 511678 
 0.01 525251 517236 512225 518225 524227 528228 533224 538216
539210 
      539203 537192 535185 533180 528174 527171 514157 498142
487130 
      479120 475114 472109 470102 465098 462095 455093 450091
442089 
      435088 429088 423090 415096 407106 404111 403117 406121
412127 
      414133 413141 406151 403155 402158 403160 409163 411166
413172 
      415177 418184 417189 413195 410204 409211 407215 402218
398223 
      397227 397234 399241 401247 408254 415258 421260 428262
435263 
      447266 459269 472276 507299 
 0.01 371791 375786 380777 381773 377775 372781 367791 368792
371791 
 0.01 419072 418066 415062 412060 407058 402057 398056 395057
393061 
      394064 396068 399072 403076 407078 412079 417076 419072 
 0.25 494677 493674 491674 488675 485676 483679 482683 485684
487684 
      488684 491684 494681 494677 
 0.25 490276 502286 511287 517280 519266 517253 510235 503215
499209 
      494206 480203 475205 470206 462205 456204 449202 443204
435209 
      429212 425218 421224 418227 413228 409229 408235 410241
413247 
      418251 426254 433255 439255 452256 463259 475265 487274
490276 
 0.25 456188 464181 464174 466169 476170 490179 504196 519211
526215 
      530209 525194 514181 498173 487166 479155 474147 468142
465141 
      460141 450148 444150 440149 435154 434160 437166 441173
443190 
      448194 456188 
 0.25 379820 376814 372814 369816 359826 351833 346836 342836
338831 
      337826 340813 343803 347792 352780 357768 358761 357756
354755 
      351759 345771 343777 342784 340789 338793 330802 322826
315846 
      312856 308868 303890 301902 300917 299929 300938 302940
305942 
      309940 311938 314934 317927 326908 342872 351864 356864
361861 
      364855 371841 376830 379820 
 0.50 509274 509267 509262 510256 510250 508243 502229 496218
492215 
      485212 479211 473211 469211 462211 453210 446211 441212
432216 
      427223 422231 417235 415239 417245 425250 441251 449251
461252 
      470253 477256 481258 489265 499276 504278 508277 509274 
 0.50 323900 331877 333856 331844 328839 323841 320848 316856
313864 
      312871 310881 308887 304903 304913 305923 307928 312925
316920 
      322905 323900 
 1.00 444243 453241 458239 460236 458233 455229 456226 457223
457220 
      453217 449217 444217 440218 435221 432224 430228 430234
431238 
      436243 442244 444243 
 1.50 443231 448230 451228 451224 451222 450221 449220 442221
438225 
      437227 439229 443231