AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
435 AM MST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO             
INDICATE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH HIGH                   
AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT               
BASIN AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS              
THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD ATTM. WATER VAPOR INDICATING MINOR                 
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS AND SW              
KANSAS WITH 2-3MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEING REALIZED ACROSS                   
NORTHWEST KANSAS ATTM. CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATING SOME HIGH                   
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE                    
PLAINS WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD WELL EAST OF THE AREA                  
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS ATTM. THE PASSING               
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND              
WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD ATTM...WITH                     
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN                    
SLOPES AND EASTERN PLAINS AND IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS.                                            
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS TEMPERATURES WITH SHALLOW              
COOL AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW            
LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD               
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS            
INDICATING INVERSIONS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE                 
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT MIXING OF THE                 
WARMER AIR ALOFT.  WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS                
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TODAY KEEPING THE WARMEST READINGS                
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OUT WEST...EXPECTING HIGHS AT              
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER                
AS SLIGHT WARMING CONTINUES WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. EXPECTING                
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CURRENT LOW                
TEMPERATURE GRID...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND                
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WARM AIR ALOFT PERSISTS WITH BUILDING            
HEIGHTS AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN UTAH. -MW                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE                    
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN RECORD            
OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.             
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL WARM.  THURSDAY THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR A             
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE               
ROCKIES WILL FORCE THE AIR DOWNSLOPE TOWARD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE               
PLAINS.  THE RESULT WILL BE WARM...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BRINGING RECORD              
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL               
APPROACH 80 OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS...WITH MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70             
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S MOUNTAINS.  WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REVERSING THE             
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO UPSLOPE.  THIS WILL LIKELY            
TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE WELL               
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MORE DRAMATIC COOLING IS                  
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK PRETTY CLOSE TO                   
AVERAGE.  COULD EVEN POSSIBLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH ACROSS            
THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY.  FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL...MAYBE A TAD               
WARMER...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.  IF CURRENT                
MODELS ARE CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES                
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A PRETTY             
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WHICH IS NOW GONE.  IT COULD               
COME BACK. STAY TUNED. LW                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A              
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS EARLY THIS            
MORNING WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/50                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
924 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS                 
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST...AND BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SIMILAR HIGH                
THURSDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW              
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE                 
REGION MODULATING CLOUDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS NEAR THE GREAT                     
LAKES AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THESE WILL                
INCLUDE A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND CLIPPER LOWS MOVING                     
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND AGAIN                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS...WX AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                      
ALTHOUGH BULK OF LAKE EFFECT OVER FOR THIS ROUND TRAJECTORY STILL               
FAVORS A COUPLE OF BANDS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO               
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY AND FULTON COUNTIES AS WELL AS                   
ANOTHER BAND INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD                      
CONTINUE UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN FLOW BECOMES MORE                   
NORTHERLY WITH STILL SOME UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE                 
WILL HOLD SCATTERED POPS. LATEST RUC13 DOES SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK                
CONVERGENCE BAND DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND                     
APPROACHING THE DAKS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SO                
WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN/WASHINGTON                  
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.                                                             
VARIABLE DEGREES OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES                 
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST LAMP SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO              
THIS WITH A BIT LOWER LOWS OVERNIGHT. SO WILL FAVOR THE MET/WRF-                
MET GUIDANCE WHICH IS LOWER THAN FWC/MAV.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                    
SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST                
DIG/DEEPEN THE TROF AND CUT IT OFF DELMARVA BY 00UTC WED. THIS                  
OCCURS WELL SOUTH OF FCA...AND ONLY REAL IMPACTS OVER FCA IS SOME               
SCT -SHSN WITH SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH FCA AS PART OF THIS                  
PROCESS. THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW                   
ACROSS THE FCA...AND POSSIBLY TRRN. CAA CONTINUES AS FCA IS IN                  
COLDEST AIR OVER LOWER 48 WITH 500-1000DM THICKNESS VALUES                      
510-520DM. AT SAME TIME 1ST SFC HIGH IS BUILDING EAST FROM                      
GRTLKS...AND SFC FLOW TURNS N. WITH SUCH COLD AIRMASS AND THE WIND              
GRADIENT IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.                                      
THIS SFC FLOW AND THE MID LEVEL 500HPA TROF POSITION WILL SHIFT THE             
GRTLKS BASED LAKE EFFECT WEST OF FCA...BUT MAY GET A RESPONSE OFF LAKE          
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE OVER EXTREME ENY.                                     
TUES NT THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH BUILDS                   
EAST. WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS...FAIR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD                      
IDEALLY RADIATE.  WED SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS FCA...AND ON ITS              
WEST SIDE WAA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW IN THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION                 
INCREASES MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH PERSIST WED NT. THURSDAY CLIPPER              
SFC LOW MOVES EAST FM EASTERN GRTLKS AND EXITS REGION DRAGGING                  
CDFNT AND NEXT SURGE OF CAA THROUGH REGION. FLOW AT 500 HPA                     
REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC OVER EASTERN HALF OF NA...AND LAKE                     
RESPONSE THAT DOES AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SW PERIPHERY                 
THU NT(W MHWK VLY AND W CATSKILLS).                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH               
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE            
TO BE QUITE COLD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO            
-16 C /ABOUT 1-2 STD BELOW NORMAL/ WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO             
REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE VALLEYS. SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY SNEAK INTO            
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE              
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS               
PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS AS WELL.                                                 
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS               
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY               
CWA WIDE. THE CORE OF THE COLD WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS 850 MB             
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR SUNDAY /ONLY -6 TO -11 DEGREES                
C/...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.                      
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.            
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE                   
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT               
CUTS IT OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY PHASES               
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TRIES TO BRING A COMPLEX WINTER STORM TO THE              
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z MREF               
PLUMES SHOW QUITE A DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND QPF OF ANY                 
SYSTEM DURING THE SUN-TUE TIME PERIOD AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...WILL             
ONLY ADD LOW CHC POPS FOR THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS                
AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL                  
HOURS ACROSS THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF                 
SITES THROUGH 00Z WED ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE                  
TIME AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE                  
REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH               
NORTH WINDS 6-12 KTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.                                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                
THU...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC/CHC SHSN/RA.                                          
FRI- SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
COLD AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION NOW. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME MORE               
NORTHERLY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS DID RECEIVE AROUND ONE HALF               
INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR                 
NO SNOW MELT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES.                  
NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM/11                                                              
SHORT TERM...SNYDER                                                             
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...11                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...DIRIENZO/BGM                                                        
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
336 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER...PERHAPS A BIT BELOW                       
NORMAL...FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS COLD AIR MOVING                   
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS                
OF THE REGION AS WE START THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS                 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MOST OF THE ATTENTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE FROM THE                      
RUC13/NAM12/HRRR-RUC ALL SUGGEST THE BANDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL                
CONSOLIDATE OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND WITH 270-280 FLOW IN THE                     
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS TAKING A SOUTHERN ROUTE              
ACROSS PA...SEEMS IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY              
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH HIGH INVERSION LEVELS. IN                               
FACT...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 12K FEET WHERE                
-25C ISOTHERM IS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED COOLING IN THE                        
COLUMN...WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING TONIGHT LEE OF               
THE LAKE AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO OUR WESTERN CWA.                      
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE DACKS MAY ADD             
UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT                
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION THAT THE NY STATE THRUWAY              
IMPACTS LATER TONIGHT IN THE WSW.                                               
THIS MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH              
COMPLEX TERRAIN AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HERE ANOTHER RISE IS              
EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LIGHT                     
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED /PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER              
ELEVATIONS/. AS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THE                    
CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKS MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW WITH ACCUMS                  
LESS THAN 1 INCH EXPECTED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ON                          
MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL                  
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT BAND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON              
WITH A MULTI-BAND SETUP. SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE ACROSS THE                     
CATSKILLS COULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL SNOW/RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH               
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND                    
IMPRESSIVE MIXING LAYER HEIGHT DEPTH...40-45F FOR HIGHS IN THE                  
VALLEY WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VARIETY OF PRECIP              
TYPES WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON TEMPS AND ELEVATION.                    
THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH              
SOME INDICATIONS OF DPVA AND FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE. WILL INCLUDE A               
LITTLE HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE CWA.                          
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.                                      
THIS TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST BUT STILL IN THE VICINITY.              
THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH THE CHANCE OF                      
FLURRIES/LIGHT-SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS TEMPERATURES               
ONLY MAX OUT INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WILL A LARGE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER               
TROUGH SITTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER            
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY               
COLD AIR /850 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -16 C/ WILL BE OVER THE                       
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS...WITH                
TEENS TO BARELY THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS. WITH THE SFC-700 MB                
FLOW EXPECTED TO BE 320-340 DEGREES...WOULD EXPECT FOR ANY LAKE                 
EFFECT ACTIVITY TO BE SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.                          
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY NOSE UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR                 
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING IT PRECIP FREE ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE CORE             
OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...850 MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE              
TO RUN 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE GEFS CONSENSUS...WHICH             
WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS                
VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                                               
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE                
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE WESTERN NY AND INTO CENTRAL PA.             
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...BUT WILL STILL              
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF               
SNOW...TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AS IT WILL SLIDE              
CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE GONE WITH              
CHC POPS OVER THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                      
THE LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE ON THE             
DETAILS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAST MOVING                
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH THE             
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY....BEFORE YET ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY AS THE AIR              
ALOFT REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY COLD. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS SHOWS                   
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE                        
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OFF THE MID                    
ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE SCENARIO...WE WOULD BE DEALING WITH A FULL               
OUT SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BEFORE GETTING TOO                          
EXCITED...IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES SHOW                  
QUITE A DEAL OF SPREAD REGARDING QPF AND EVEN PRECIP TYPE AS WELL               
FOR ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ITS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING            
THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY /AS WOULD BE                  
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. WILL PLAY THE FORECAST            
AS LOW CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND FOR MAINLY SNOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO              
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO CARVE OUT              
OF THE DETAILS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT                 
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE 30-37KTS. VFR                 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS 3500-5000FT.            
LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY AFFECTING                
THE ADIRONDACKS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES CHANNEL DOWN THE MOHAWK WILL                
BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED AT KALB. KGFL MAY HAVE A                  
FLURRY OR TWO AS WELL. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH              
05Z. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE               
LAKE EFFECT CONCENTRATED IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF                                  
HERKIMER...HAMILTON...AND NORTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL              
PICK UP IN THE MID MORNING AT 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE WEST.                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON...VFR...CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHSN ESP WEST OF HUDSON VALLEY.                    
TUE...VFR...ISOLATED -SHSN.                                                     
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
THU...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC/CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.                                      
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY OVER MOST                 
OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WAS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS                
WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL...ALONG WITH A SMALL PATCH                 
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THE MOOSE RIVER IN                   
HERKIMER COUNTY CAME UP THREE FEET SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON                    
BUT WAS NEAR ITS PEAK AND IT WILL ONLY RISE A FEW INCHES EARLY                  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST CANADA ABOVE HINCKLEY RESERVOIR ALSO                   
CAME UP ALMOST TWO FEET AS DID THE HEADWATERS OF THE MOHAWK                     
RIVER. THIS FLOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT                      
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE MOHAWK TO RISE                       
ABOUT ANOTHER SIX TO EIGHT INCHES AT SCHENECTADY AND ANOTHER                    
FOOT AT COHOES...WHICH WILL BRING THE HUDSON UP A FEW INCHES                    
UPSTREAM OF THE TROY DAM. RAIN OVER THE HOUSATONIC BASIN                        
WAS LIGHT AND IT WILL ONLY RISE A FEW INCHES.                                   
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE PRIMARY                    
PTYPE TONIGHT THRU THE WEEK WILL BE SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCED SNOW                   
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THESE WILL                      
HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES                     
WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM                     
THE RAIN YESTERDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE                       
REST OF THE WEEK.                                                               
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST              
     MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-082.                                             
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...KGS                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
855 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/H5 RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY               
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS MORNING...WITH A               
LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A NEGATIVELY-TILTED                 
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTED NE OF THE CWA                
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH W-NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.                
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SURGING             
EWD BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING PRECIP WATER            
VALUES FROM 0.25-0.35 INCHES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER              
LA/COASTAL TX HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE AND E INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND            
ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF            
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AND COLD FRONTS OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC               
COAST AND ACROSS CUBA. SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WERE CLEAR...WITH COLD              
ADVECTION STRATOCU STREAKING SWD OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS...AND              
LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE OH/TN VALLEYS.                                        
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MORNING 850 TEMPS            
FROM 2-4 DEG C SUPPORT AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AS            
ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING ZONE FCST. MIXING OF 20-25 KTS WINDS IN               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH BY LATE MORNING.            
ASIDE FROM NUDGING WINDS UP SLIGHTLY...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO              
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS            
BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...OBS TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...WITH              
NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND SEAS FROM 7-9 FT               
AT THE BUOYS. AT THE MOB BUOY...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO               
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA (15-20 KTS AND 5-6 FT SEAS). THE TIGHT                
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN                
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE              
BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST...THE GRADIENT08Z              
WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED            
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LONGWAVE                
RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND                   
LONGWAVE AND DEEP TROUGHING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN               
HALF OF THE NATION.                                                             
WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY              
CRITERIA OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER               
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE                 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MORNING FCST UPDATE.                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL             
LOOKS LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND                
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FL ZONES.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  60  32  65  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  39  65  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       59  35  65  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  34  65  37  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     60  33  65  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   63  32  68  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM            
     EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA               
     PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                                            
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN                 
     FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                                    
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO                
     THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM.                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH            
     OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/BLOCK                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
320 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION EARLY THIS MORNING                    
WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN                
WEST...AND LONGWAVE AND DEEP TROUGHING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS                
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH             
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH              
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE                     
CURRENTLY AROUND -2C OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND ZERO C               
OVER THE COAST. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY DRY ZONE OF MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS VERY DRY AIR IS WELL            
SAMPLED ON THIS PAST EVENING`S KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING A PW THROUGH               
THE COLUMN OF ONLY 0.3" WHICH IS ONLY ONE THIRD OF THE NORMAL VALUE             
FOR MID NOVEMBER. IF FACT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 850MB ARE ON               
AVERAGE AROUND 30C WITH VALUES APPROACHING 50C AT 700MB.                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF              
STRONG 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. A VERY               
TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND SATURDAY`S                
COLD FRONT RESULTING IN STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT              
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL              
WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH GUSTS CONSISTENTLY AROUND 30 KNOTS.             
THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE REALLY WHIPPED UP THE SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS            
OF 8 TO 10 FEET BEING REPORTED AT THE BUOYS SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY AND            
APALACHICOLA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF OUR LAND                    
ZONES...HOWEVER HAVE DEVELOPED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATACU OVER               
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS              
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING            
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. SHOULD              
DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE             
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.            
SHARP TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING               
WILL RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE                 
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS RETREATS IT WILL TAKE THE            
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH IT ALLOWING THE OVERALL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO            
RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN +5 AND +7C BY            
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS RECOVERY AND DESPITE ABUNDANT            
SUNSHINE...WILL BE DEALING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10                
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AFTER A COOL START IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER            
40S...OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ZONES STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER             
50S TO NEAR 60 AND INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR OUR FLORIDA ZONES. SURFACE            
RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE                   
NORTHERN GULF COAST ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SETTLE A BIT THROUGH THE              
DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                                 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS               
TO BECOME VERY LIGHT OR EVEN CALM IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THESE                 
LIGHT WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A            
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THE AIRMASS AS A WHOLE WILL BE                  
SLOWLY RECOVERING...BUT HAVE SEEN TIME AND AGAIN THAT THESE                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS CAN OVERCOME THIS RECOVERY AND RESULT IN             
COOLER TEMPS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THEREFORE CURRENT                
GRIDS SHOW WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE            
30S TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY WITH THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND SPOTS             
DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. URBAN CENTERS AND             
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE MORE LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE MIDDLE TO              
UPPER 30S. IT WOULD APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS              
TO SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REACH THE FREEZING MARK WOULD BE ALONG              
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR (BUT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST)              
WHERE SANDIER SOILS WILL FURTHER AID THE COOLING. THE LIGHTER WINDS             
SHOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FROST DURING THE LATE             
NIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FROST MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY            
5AM AND 8AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THOSE INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH             
THE MIDDLE 30S OR LOWER. PERSONS WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION              
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH              
TODAY IN CASE ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONS BECOME NECESSARY.                          
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY            
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP A BIT AFTER THE VERY COOL                
START. A DIURNAL RISE OF 30+ DEGREES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD                  
MIDDLE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND INTO               
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING              
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY AROUND THE             
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN EASTERN TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL REACH            
THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
HELPING TO RE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN                 
RESPONSE TO THIS SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH...WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD               
FRONT SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND NIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH SO               
SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT WIND                
SHIFT TO MARK ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.                        
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COOL POLAR AIRMASS TO THE               
AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S                
NORTH AND LOWER 60S (AT BEST) IN THE SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK             
DOWN TOWARD ZERO C OVER OUR NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ZONES.            
A STRONG 1033-1035MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH                 
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE               
OF THE FRONT. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH              
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE                
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FREEZE EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE LONG TERM               
DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND                
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE AMPLIFIED              
500 MB PATTERN IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE             
WEEKEND. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE COLDEST MORNING SO             
FAR THIS SEASON ON WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR STRONG              
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE IN THE                  
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS...AS THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND NAM            
OUTPUT ARE EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN            
THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT SOME SITES. WE WILL BLEND THIS GUIDANCE WITH            
THE SLIGHTLY-WARMER GFS MOS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A LIGHT                 
FREEZE AND/OR FROST EVENT THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER               
INLAND LOCATIONS. MOS AND THE GFS RAW OUTPUT FLIP FLOP THEIR ROLES              
FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE WARMING              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS MOS IS PICKING UP ON               
THE SIGNALS THAT INDICATE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT AS A STABLE NOCTURNAL             
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS AND COOLS RAPIDLY. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO              
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY COLD FRONT IS              
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND             
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT COLD AIR TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE                
BIAS CORRECTED GFS SOLUTION FORECASTS LOWS NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND             
SATURDAY MORNINGS...WHILE THE GFS MOS (WHICH IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED                
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY) IS WARMER. A SLOW RETURN TO MORE AVERAGE                    
TEMPERATURES SEEMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW              
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST SOME RAIN FOR OUR AREA SUNDAY...BUT            
THE MODEL RH AND MASS FIELDS DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT THIS.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UNLIMITED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...                 
BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED LARGE WILD FIRES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE             
FROM 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 KT WITH GUSTS             
TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 KT OR LESS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A TIGHT GRADIENT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL                
KEEP NORTHERNLY WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD              
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP TO RELAX                 
THE GRADIENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP BELOW              
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY REMAINING                  
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY               
NIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BACK TO NEAR                
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.            
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN AGAIN SETTLE BACK DOWN BELOW HEADLINE                  
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                   
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST WATERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE                
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RED                
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS            
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FL ZONES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  60  32  65  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  39  65  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       59  35  65  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  34  65  37  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     60  33  65  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   63  32  68  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 6 PM EST /5            
     PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE            
     AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN                 
     FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.                                    
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO                
     THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM.                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH            
     OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...FOURNIER                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
952 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
...HARD FREEZE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED                 
BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...             
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES               
AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER THE 2 HOURS                
OR SO BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND                     
DEWPOINTS TO FALL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPERATURES                       
INITIATING A STEADY DECLINE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO                   
LOWER THEM 1-2 DEGS AROUND THE METTER...REIDSVILLE AND LUDOWICI                 
AREAS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS. LOCATIONS WELL                   
INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT               
LOCAL FROST TOOLS INDICATE NO CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN THE DRYING                
SURFACE LAYER AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS. IN ALL VERY FEW CHANGES               
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.                                                        
LAKE WINDS...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON LAKE MOULTRIE THIS              
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL SURGE HARD BY                  
MIDNIGHT THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. 850MB TEMPERATURES             
AROUND -5C COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WILL                 
YIELD VERY FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD HELP SURGE                  
WINDS SOLIDLY INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL              
CONTINUE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                      
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...STRONG COLD ADVECTION...FEATURING A                       
DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE              
-5C TO -9C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE               
40S AT MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM HIGH                          
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 18 WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY AT                 
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT.                                                         
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF                
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS                
MAY PUSH FREEZING CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. THUS...ISSUED A FREEZE               
WATCH FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPTING ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS                 
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED DUE TO AN EARLIER                   
FREEZING EVENT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S                  
ACROSS MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S              
ALONG THE COAST. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 19 WILL BE                
CHALLENGED.                                                                     
DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENT N/NW WINDS SHOULD               
GREATLY LIMIT/PREVENT FROST FORMATION.                                          
LAKE WIND...OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY                      
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES...OVER LAKE MOULTRIE TUESDAY               
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PER 12Z MODEL TRENDS DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT                 
RELAXATION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ADJUSTED THE               
END TIME FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH SAT...                
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON THU. HIGH PRES WILL                  
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE STRONG              
CAA THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE LOW-MID 50S WED                
FOLLOWED BY MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WED NIGHT. SOME             
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THU AHEAD OF A COLD FROPA DUE              
FOR LATE DAY THU TO POSSIBLY THU EVE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME               
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 60S WHICH            
IS STILL SOME 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE THE MODEST INCREASE             
IN THE MOISTURE COLUMN...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA             
IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT WITH AN E              
COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE DEVELOPING...ALLOWING ANOTHER                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRES AIRMASS TO SLIDE INTO THE ERN CONUS. MIN TEMPS               
WILL AGAIN DROP TO THE 30S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER             
60S...BUT THE CAVEAT IS THAT THESE TEMPS COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE              
IF CAA IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. TEMPS MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND            
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT ANOTHER             
COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY AND GIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF                  
COLDER AIR.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH SITES.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN CAUSING A TIGHTENING OF THE                
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY                 
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH                
THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH                  
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT BOTH AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT AND                    
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.                                     
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF STRONG                
COLD FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS                  
INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR LOOK GOOD. SUSPECT THERE MAY BE 4-5                 
HOUR PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE HIGH              
RESOLUTION SST DATA SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER               
60S TO LOWER 70S BETWEEN 40 AND 60 NM OUT. RUC AND NAM ADJUSTED                 
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUPPORT VIGOROUS MIXING PROFILES OVERNIGHT               
AS INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH THESE WARMER WATERS.               
WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 5 AM...AFTER WHICH              
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.                                     
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION/OVER                
WATER INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                      
AS CAA SHUTS DOWN BY WED MORNING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DROP               
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY DAYBREAK WED. THE ONLY                 
CONCERN IS SEAS...AND ATTM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 6              
FT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL BE              
SLOWER TO EXPERIENCE THE DROP UNDER THE SOLID OFFSHORE FLOW SO WILL             
MAINTAIN THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. AS HIGH PRES MOVES            
ACRS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT...SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS                
WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE THU               
INTO THU NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA ALONG WITH IT THAT WILL                  
INCREASE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. ATTM...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA             
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACH THAT OF THE CAA EXPECTED FOR TUE SO HAVE            
KEPT SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FT AND WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT.             
SHOULD THE MODELS AND TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...THEN SCA HEADLINES             
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR FRI                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR TRANQUIL CONDS BY THEN.                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARISE BOTH TUE AND WED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS               
SETTLING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR                   
TUE...RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 25                         
PERCENT...RANGING FROM 24-27 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IN                 
THE UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDED TO THAT WILL BE WIND                   
SPEEDS NEAR TO AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON.                            
HOWEVER...AFTER CONSULTING USERS IN BOTH SC AND GA...FUEL                       
MOISTURES AT BOTH THE 10 AND 100 HOUR TIME RANGES ARE RUNNING                   
MOIST ENOUGH FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS THAT NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WX                  
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED. FOR WED... WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER BUT RH              
LEVELS WILL BE DRIER...POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. SINCE                
ONLY THE RH CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON WED...NO ADDITIONAL FIRE                
WX PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED. FOR BOTH TUE AND WED...WILL RUN WITH                
THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES IN THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.                
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...                                  
CHS...49/1951                                                                   
CHL...48/1951                                                                   
SAV...45/1891                                                                   
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...                                                    
CHS...27/1949                                                                   
CHL...32/1951                                                                   
SAV...27/1951                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141.                                            
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR SCZ042>045-047>051.                                                    
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-          
     352-354.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
601 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
348 AM CST                                                                      
A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...        
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE               
OF SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY THROUGH                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TODAY...THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 500 MB THROUGH                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN               
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. WE WILL FORECAST SCATTERED                
SNOW FLURRIES. THE SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE                  
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ALMOST                      
STATIONARY TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTH DAKOTA                
TO MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BECOMING A TROUGH BY               
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE                 
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EASTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE                
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA MONDAY. WE WILL FORECAST SNOW                 
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS         
FOR MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN NORTHWEST                     
INDIANA.                                                                        
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE REGION                 
WILL STILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME VERY COLD AIR MAY MOVE                  
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO              
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
555 AM CST                                                                      
12Z TAFORS...JUST AS THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS CLEARING OUT OF FAR              
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING A MID               
DECK IS RAPIDLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE                  
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING                  
SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS IN FAR                  
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 11Z WITH A 3MB/3HR PRESSURE FALL CENTER               
WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN IOWA.                                       
06Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM FILLING THE CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A                     
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND              
NORTHEAST IOWA AT 18Z AND LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK. 09Z RUC MAINTAINS              
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW ON THE IOWA-WISCONSIN BORDER AT THAT TIME AND              
LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FORECAST...THOUGH IT TO OPENS IT TO JUST A                 
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 21Z.                       
RADAR RETURNS ALREADY DEPICTED ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS               
BUT NOTHING HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE INVADING MID                  
CLOUDS. FURTHER UPSTREAM WHERE LOW LEVEL LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED                
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW SNOWFALL IS BEING REPORTED BUT WITH VISIBILITY                      
UNRESTRICTED FOR THE MOST PART.                                                 
THIS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST AS THE                
SURFACE LOW DOES SO AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST                  
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING. AS THE LOW                 
WEAKENS ANY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE PASSING TO THE WEST                
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.                  
THERE MAY BE A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL FLURRIES AS THE MID LEVEL                    
TROUGH PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS REINFORCING              
COLD AIR IS USHERED IN PUT NOT WORTHY OF INCLUSION IN THE TAFORS.               
WINDS WILL BACK A BIT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW/TROUGH                       
APPROACHES...AND SPEEDS DROP OFF FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE                 
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS A PRETTY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS                     
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND START TO                
PICK UP AGAIN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY BUT EXPECT ANY               
GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS.                                                   
SATELLITE AND METARS INDICATE ONLY LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR             
CLOUD COVER PREVAILING UPSTREAM. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT                  
EXPECTED TO CAUSE CLOUDS TO BECOME PATCHY AS CURRENTLY SEEN OVER                
THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA SO HAVE SO HAVE VFR                 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFORS.                              
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
305 AM CST                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST                 
TO LABRADOR BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE             
CANADIAN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER                  
AWAY...WHILE ALSO BACKING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD                   
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST                 
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SHORT                
WAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING WITH THE                   
TROUGH AND THE REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST             
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY                            
EVENING...VEERING WINDS TO NORTHWEST.                                           
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES DURING             
MONDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY                
AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST                  
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.                     
THE REINFORCEMENTS OF THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SHOW                   
SHOWERS AND LOCAL SNOW SQUALLS GOING FROM TODAY TO WELL INTO                    
TUESDAY. ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT WILL STRETCH               
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND ADDITIONAL                    
ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCUR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE SOUTHERN LAKE                 
MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MAINLY DOWNWIND LOCATIONS.           
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1024 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MULTIPLE LES BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE                    
HEAVIEST HAVE BEEN FROM THE BENTON HARBOR AREA SOUTHEAST THROUGH                
GOSHEN AND NOW HERE AT THE OFFICE. ANOTHER BAND SET UP FROM                     
LAPORTE COUNTY SOUTHEAST. REPORTS OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR               
MORE PER HOUR ARE BECOMING COMMON.A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO                  
MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AT THE FT WAYNE AREA. THESE BANDS WILL                     
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE S/W EXITS THE AREA.                   
WHAT IS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AS WAS FORECAST HERE AND BY 18Z                   
NAM...MESO LOW HAS SETUP AND IS WORKING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN                 
PART OF THE LAKE. ECHO TOPS ON SOME OF THE CELLS WERE EXCEEDING                 
15,000 FEET. IN GENERAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE                  
AREA...THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE FOR NOW. THE AREA OF CONCERN              
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ACROSS CASS COUNTY MI...ELKHART COUNTY              
INDIANA AND MAYBE INTO PORTIONS OF KOSICUSKO COUNTY. HEADLINES ARE              
SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM FOR CASS AND ELKHART COUNTIES. THESE 2                    
COUNTIES HAVE SEEN LIKELY AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW JUST              
THIS EVENING IN SPOTS WITH THE SNOW BANDS. WITH THE SOUTHERN END                
OF THE MESOVORT LOOKING TO PASS OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CASS COUNTY               
AND POSSIBLY INTO ELKHART COUNTY...THEY WILL LIKELY SEE A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TIMING OUT               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURL PLACES IT THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI BY 1 AM              
AND ELKHART BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM. WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THINGS RIDE               
FOR NOW AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
COMPLICATED TAFS IN STORE AT KSBN AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT                       
SNOWSHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH ONE                   
DOMINANT BAND STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED                 
WITH OVERALL IDEA OF 18Z TAFS WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE 1ST 6                   
HOURS TO ADDRESS WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND BEING HINTED               
AT BY BOTH NAM12 AND 00Z/17 4KM WRF. AS THE BAND BECOME BETTER                  
DEVELOPED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY               
BUT FOR NOW LIFR CONDITIONS BEING CONFINED TO TEMPO GROUP. BY THE               
12 TO 15Z TIME FRAME THE BULK OF THE SNOWS SHOULD BE WEST OF KSBN.              
AT KFWA...EFFECTS OF LES WILL BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT.                         
HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SUGGEST AS THE MAIN BAND IS DEVELOPING THAT              
A LONG FETCH EXTENT COULD OCCUR WITH THE BAND CLEAR INTO PORTIONS               
OF CNTRL OHIO. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR 5SM AND MVFR CIGS LATER               
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
.HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...                                 
CURRENT WATER IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH                  
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION....WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER                
BLAST OF CAA INTO THE REGION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LEND TO THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND             
NORTHERN IN. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SOME ON THE FINE                   
DETAILS OF HOW THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL PLAY OUT...ALTHOUGH ONE             
THING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEFS/NAEFS            
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM/AND NAM...THAT BEING LONG FETCH              
AGGREGATE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MI WITH EXTREME DELTA T/S OF                 
NEARLY 20 C OR HIGHER...RESULTING IN EXTREME LL UPWARD DIRECTED                 
OMEGA OVER BERRIEN/LA PORTE AND WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH /IN/ COUNTIES              
TONIGHT. HAVE UTILIZED MANY SHORT TERM MODELS IN THE                            
PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY THE WRF/NMM/GFS/RUC 13 AND ECMWF TO TRY AND               
RESOLVE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE BANDS/AFFECTED AREAS/AND SNOW TOTALS               
BASED ON QPF TRENDS.                                                            
NUMEROUS PARALLEL BANDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND                
EXTREME NORTHERN IN. EVOLUTION OF THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO A MID            
LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXTREME DELTA T/S/ROBUST LAKE                   
INDUCED CAPES OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG AS INDICATED IN BUFFER SOUNDINGS/             
AND VEERING FLOW TO MORE N/NW AND EVENTUALLY N BY TUES MORNING.                 
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESO-LOW                
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL                
ORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ALLOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY               
IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS PROG              
WESTERN BERRIEN/MUCH OF LA PORTE/AND FAR WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH COUNTIES          
AS THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL.               
PARALLEL BANDS WILL BEGIN TO REV UP IN INTENSITY LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER IMPULSE. THE               
INTENSE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH SUPPORTS H5 TEMPS DOWN TO                
-38C WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 17 KFT AND                    
STAGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG...ADDITIONALLY                   
SUPPORTED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AFFECTS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EL OF NEARLY            
20KFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO SLEET. HAVE               
WORDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. LONG PERIOD OF PARALLEL BAND SETUP THIS            
EVENING WILL SUPPORT DECENT ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SW MI AND            
EXTREME NORTHERN IN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GROWING                     
INSTABILITY WILL THEN ALLOW MORE INTENSE BANDING TO DEVELOP LATER               
THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING WEST INTO WESTERN BERRIEN/ LA PORTE/WESTERN         
ST. JOE/AND STARKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXTREME CONVECTIVE                       
SETUP...EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 15 INCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE               
DURATION/INTENSITY ARE MAXIMIZED...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN EXTREME SW              
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES             
PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. BLOWING             
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LL FLOW RESPONDS TO MESOSCALE          
PROCESSES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80/90 AND 94. THERE             
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL            
BE...AS MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW DISRUPTION IN THE FLOW                   
SHIFTING THE BAND EAST AND WEST.                                                
HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS AS AT                       
LEAST 6 INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED COUNTIES.             
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME BY TUES AFTERNOON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS RAISING IN REPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECTING THE MID            
LAND BAND TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT BACK EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A              
MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS...WITH SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE             
BEFORE WINDING DOWN TUES EVENING.                                               
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AGAIN            
TUES AND LOWS IN THE 20S.                                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                                
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES...MORE             
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORM SYSTEM DAY 6 AND DAY            
7. RELIANCE REMAINS IN THE ECMWF IN LONG TERM WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT ON            
NAM WRF IN 36 TO 84 HOUR RANGE.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR             
ADVECTION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT IN EARNEST. CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL             
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WITH HIGH OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LEAD TO                 
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK IN                      
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD            
DEVELOP WITH WAA LATER IN THE EVENING AND DROP WILL SLOW AND                    
POSSIBLY RISE LATE. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE AND INTO            
THE TEENS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS POTENTIAL FOR A              
VERY COLD EVENING IS THERE IF WE REMAIN DECOUPLED AND CLEAR FOR                 
SEVERAL HOURS.                                                                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCUR WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD            
OF NEXT POTENT CLIPPER AND MORE POLAR AIR. SHOULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL            
ON WED BUT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED OVER SNOWPACK. COLDER AIR ARRIVES             
IN EARNEST THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW              
SETTING UP. MODELS AGAIN LOOK TOO LOW WITH MOISTURE FIELDS BUT GIVEN            
DELTA T VALUES NEAR 20 AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE             
A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED            
POPS UP INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT ACCUMS AND LOCATION REMAIN                     
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
COLDER AIR HANGS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT ECMWF REMAINS                      
CONSISTENT WITH POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH               
OHIO VALLEY REGION. EXPECT THIS TRACK TO SHIFT NORTH WITH TIME AS               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH EARLY SEASON STORM            
TRACKS. OUR AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE OF MIXED                       
PRECIPITATION LINE WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.               
WILL HAVE RAIN SOUTH AND A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION                                 
NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ON MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY             
CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT DETAILS TO A MINIMUM AND TRYING TO HIT BIG                  
PICTURE. GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD HPC               
AND CURRENT GRIDS FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR INZ003-012.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ013.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ005.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ004.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ014-015.           
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ078.                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...FISHER                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
650 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLICATED TAFS IN STORE AT KSBN AS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT                       
SNOWSHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH ONE                   
DOMINANT BAND STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED                 
WITH OVERALL IDEA OF 18Z TAFS WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE 1ST 6                   
HOURS TO ADDRESS WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND BEING HINTED               
AT BY BOTH NAM12 AND 00Z/17 4KM WRF. AS THE BAND BECOME BETTER                  
DEVELOPED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY               
BUT FOR NOW LIFR CONDITIONS BEING CONFINED TO TEMPO GROUP. BY THE               
12 TO 15Z TIME FRAME THE BULK OF THE SNOWS SHOULD BE WEST OF KSBN.              
AT KFWA...EFFECTS OF LES WILL BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT.                         
HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SUGGEST AS THE MAIN BAND IS DEVELOPING THAT              
A LONG FETCH EXTENT COULD OCCUR WITH THE BAND CLEAR INTO PORTIONS               
OF CNTRL OHIO. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR 5SM AND MVFR CIGS LATER               
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...                                
CURRENT WATER IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH                  
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION....WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER                
BLAST OF CAA INTO THE REGION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LEND TO THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND             
NORTHERN IN. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SOME ON THE FINE                   
DETAILS OF HOW THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL PLAY OUT...ALTHOUGH ONE             
THING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEFS/NAEFS            
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM/AND NAM...THAT BEING LONG FETCH              
AGGREGATE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MI WITH EXTREME DELTA T/S OF                 
NEARLY 20 C OR HIGHER...RESULTING IN EXTREME LL UPWARD DIRECTED                 
OMEGA OVER BERRIEN/LA PORTE AND WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH /IN/ COUNTIES              
TONIGHT. HAVE UTILIZED MANY SHORT TERM MODELS IN THE                            
PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY THE WRF/NMM/GFS/RUC 13 AND ECMWF TO TRY AND               
RESOLVE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE BANDS/AFFECTED AREAS/AND SNOW TOTALS               
BASED ON QPF TRENDS.                                                            
NUMEROUS PARALLEL BANDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND                
EXTREME NORTHERN IN. EVOLUTION OF THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO A MID            
LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXTREME DELTA T/S/ROBUST LAKE                   
INDUCED CAPES OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG AS INDICATED IN BUFFER SOUNDINGS/             
AND VEERING FLOW TO MORE N/NW AND EVENTUALLY N BY TUES MORNING.                 
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESO-LOW                
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL                
ORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ALLOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY               
IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS PROG              
WESTERN BERRIEN/MUCH OF LA PORTE/AND FAR WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH COUNTIES          
AS THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL.               
PARALLEL BANDS WILL BEGIN TO REV UP IN INTENSITY LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER IMPULSE. THE               
INTENSE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH SUPPORTS H5 TEMPS DOWN TO                
-38C WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 17 KFT AND                    
STAGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG...ADDITIONALLY                   
SUPPORTED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AFFECTS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EL OF NEARLY            
20KFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO SLEET. HAVE               
WORDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. LONG PERIOD OF PARALLEL BAND SETUP THIS            
EVENING WILL SUPPORT DECENT ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SW MI AND            
EXTREME NORTHERN IN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GROWING                     
INSTABILITY WILL THEN ALLOW MORE INTENSE BANDING TO DEVELOP LATER               
THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING WEST INTO WESTERN BERRIEN/ LA PORTE/WESTERN         
ST. JOE/AND STARKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXTREME CONVECTIVE                       
SETUP...EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 15 INCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE               
DURATION/INTENSITY ARE MAXIMIZED...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN EXTREME SW              
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES             
PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. BLOWING             
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LL FLOW RESPONDS TO MESOSCALE          
PROCESSES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80/90 AND 94. THERE             
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL            
BE...AS MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW DISRUPTION IN THE FLOW                   
SHIFTING THE BAND EAST AND WEST.                                                
HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS AS AT                       
LEAST 6 INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED COUNTIES.             
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME BY TUES AFTERNOON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS RAISING IN REPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECTING THE MID            
LAND BAND TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT BACK EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A              
MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS...WITH SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE             
BEFORE WINDING DOWN TUES EVENING.                                               
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AGAIN            
TUES AND LOWS IN THE 20S.                                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                               
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES...MORE             
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORM SYSTEM DAY 6 AND DAY            
7. RELIANCE REMAINS IN THE ECMWF IN LONG TERM WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT ON            
NAM WRF IN 36 TO 84 HOUR RANGE.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR             
ADVECTION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT IN EARNEST. CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL             
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WITH HIGH OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LEAD TO                 
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK IN                      
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD            
DEVELOP WITH WAA LATER IN THE EVENING AND DROP WILL SLOW AND                    
POSSIBLY RISE LATE. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE AND INTO            
THE TEENS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS POTENTIAL FOR A              
VERY COLD EVENING IS THERE IF WE REMAIN DECOUPLED AND CLEAR FOR                 
SEVERAL HOURS.                                                                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCUR WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD            
OF NEXT POTENT CLIPPER AND MORE POLAR AIR. SHOULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL            
ON WED BUT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED OVER SNOWPACK. COLDER AIR ARRIVES             
IN EARNEST THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW              
SETTING UP. MODELS AGAIN LOOK TOO LOW WITH MOISTURE FIELDS BUT GIVEN            
DELTA T VALUES NEAR 20 AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE             
A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED            
POPS UP INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT ACCUMS AND LOCATION REMAIN                     
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
COLDER AIR HANGS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT ECMWF REMAINS                      
CONSISTENT WITH POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH               
OHIO VALLEY REGION. EXPECT THIS TRACK TO SHIFT NORTH WITH TIME AS               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH EARLY SEASON STORM            
TRACKS. OUR AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE OF MIXED                       
PRECIPITATION LINE WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.               
WILL HAVE RAIN SOUTH AND A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION                                 
NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ON MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY             
CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT DETAILS TO A MINIMUM AND TRYING TO HIT BIG                  
PICTURE. GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD HPC               
AND CURRENT GRIDS FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ014-015.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR INZ003-012.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ013.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ005.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ004.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ006.          
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ079.          
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ078.                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
512 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...                               
CURRENT WATER IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH                  
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION....WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER                
BLAST OF CAA INTO THE REGION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LEND TO THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND             
NORTHERN IN. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SOME ON THE FINE                   
DETAILS OF HOW THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL PLAY OUT...ALTHOUGH ONE             
THING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEFS/NAEFS            
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM/AND NAM...THAT BEING LONG FETCH              
AGGREGATE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MI WITH EXTREME DELTA T/S OF                 
NEARLY 20 C OR HIGHER...RESULTING IN EXTREME LL UPWARD DIRECTED                 
OMEGA OVER BERRIEN/LA PORTE AND WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH /IN/ COUNTIES              
TONIGHT. HAVE UTILIZED MANY SHORT TERM MODELS IN THE                            
PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY THE WRF/NMM/GFS/RUC 13 AND ECMWF TO TRY AND               
RESOLVE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE BANDS/AFFECTED AREAS/AND SNOW TOTALS               
BASED ON QPF TRENDS.                                                            
NUMEROUS PARALLEL BANDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MI AND                
EXTREME NORTHERN IN. EVOLUTION OF THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO A MID            
LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXTREME DELTA T/S/ROBUST LAKE                   
INDUCED CAPES OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG AS INDICATED IN BUFFER SOUNDINGS/             
AND VEERING FLOW TO MORE N/NW AND EVENTUALLY N BY TUES MORNING.                 
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESO-LOW                
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL                
ORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT...ALLOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY               
IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS PROG              
WESTERN BERRIEN/MUCH OF LA PORTE/AND FAR WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH COUNTIES          
AS THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL.               
PARALLEL BANDS WILL BEGIN TO REV UP IN INTENSITY LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER IMPULSE. THE               
INTENSE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH SUPPORTS H5 TEMPS DOWN TO                
-38C WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 17 KFT AND                    
STAGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG...ADDITIONALLY                   
SUPPORTED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AFFECTS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. EL OF NEARLY            
20KFT WILL SUPPORT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO SLEET. HAVE               
WORDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. LONG PERIOD OF PARALLEL BAND SETUP THIS            
EVENING WILL SUPPORT DECENT ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SW MI AND            
EXTREME NORTHERN IN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GROWING                     
INSTABILITY WILL THEN ALLOW MORE INTENSE BANDING TO DEVELOP LATER               
THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING WEST INTO WESTERN BERRIEN/ LA PORTE/WESTERN         
ST. JOE/AND STARKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXTREME CONVECTIVE                       
SETUP...EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 15 INCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE               
DURATION/INTENSITY ARE MAXIMIZED...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN EXTREME SW              
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES             
PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. BLOWING             
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LL FLOW RESPONDS TO MESOSCALE          
PROCESSES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80/90 AND 94. THERE             
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL            
BE...AS MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW DISRUPTION IN THE FLOW                   
SHIFTING THE BAND EAST AND WEST.                                                
HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS AS AT                       
LEAST 6 INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED COUNTIES.             
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME BY TUES AFTERNOON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS RAISING IN REPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECTING THE MID            
LAND BAND TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT BACK EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A              
MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS...WITH SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE             
BEFORE WINDING DOWN TUES EVENING.                                               
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AGAIN            
TUES AND LOWS IN THE 20S.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                              
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES...MORE             
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORM SYSTEM DAY 6 AND DAY            
7. RELIANCE REMAINS IN THE ECMWF IN LONG TERM WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT ON            
NAM WRF IN 36 TO 84 HOUR RANGE.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR             
ADVECTION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT IN EARNEST. CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL             
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WITH HIGH OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LEAD TO                 
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK IN                      
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD            
DEVELOP WITH WAA LATER IN THE EVENING AND DROP WILL SLOW AND                    
POSSIBLY RISE LATE. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE AND INTO            
THE TEENS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS POTENTIAL FOR A              
VERY COLD EVENING IS THERE IF WE REMAIN DECOUPLED AND CLEAR FOR                 
SEVERAL HOURS.                                                                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCUR WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD            
OF NEXT POTENT CLIPPER AND MORE POLAR AIR. SHOULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL            
ON WED BUT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED OVER SNOWPACK. COLDER AIR ARRIVES             
IN EARNEST THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW              
SETTING UP. MODELS AGAIN LOOK TOO LOW WITH MOISTURE FIELDS BUT GIVEN            
DELTA T VALUES NEAR 20 AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE             
A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED            
POPS UP INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT ACCUMS AND LOCATION REMAIN                     
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
COLDER AIR HANGS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT ECMWF REMAINS                      
CONSISTENT WITH POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH               
OHIO VALLEY REGION. EXPECT THIS TRACK TO SHIFT NORTH WITH TIME AS               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH EARLY SEASON STORM            
TRACKS. OUR AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE OF MIXED                       
PRECIPITATION LINE WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.               
WILL HAVE RAIN SOUTH AND A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION                                 
NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ON MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY             
CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT DETAILS TO A MINIMUM AND TRYING TO HIT BIG                  
PICTURE. GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD HPC               
AND CURRENT GRIDS FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWING MULTIPLE LES BANDS IN AND AROUND KSBN             
AREA ATTM. WILL GO WITH 5SM PREVAILING TO START PERIOD...MORNING OBS            
HAVE HAD VSBYS NEAR 2SM WITH STRONGER BANDS SO GO WITH THIS AS TEMPO            
GROUP. HEAVY LES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TRANSITION TO SINGLE BAND.               
12Z MODELS INDICATING TIMING FOR HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS TO                
OCCUR AT KSBN BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AND HAVE WORDED TAF ACCORDINGLY.              
OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILING FOR KFWA ENTIRE PERIOD WITH JUST A TEMPO               
GROUP THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME MVFR SHSN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ014-015.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR INZ003-012.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ013.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ005.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ004.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ006.          
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ079.          
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ078.                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...LOGSDON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
243 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.                    
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK                     
JET STREAK/DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND AMPLIFYING                
THE TROUGH. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OK AND                  
NORTH TX, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. NOT MUCH WILL                
CHANGE INTO TONIGHT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND               
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS TO OUR EAST ARE THE SAME OR                   
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW. RUC HAS SOME STRATUS FORMATION BY                  
MORNING, BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER. SREF HAS                   
MINIMAL PROBS FOR CEILINGS, SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS JUST SOME MID                  
LEVEL CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER                
20S TO LOW 30S. THE LEE SFC TROUGH SHOULD GET GOING AGAIN BY                    
TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE           
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WARMER AIR WILL START TO RETURN TO OUR WESTERN               
COUNTIES, WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING AROUND 20 C. THIS WILL ALLOW                
HIGHS IN THE WEST TO GET UP INTO THE MID 70S WHILE THE COOLER AIR               
HANGS ON IN THE EAST AND KEEPS READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S.                       
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COMES OVER              
THE RIDGE, WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD.                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING                  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN LOW 40S. THE SFC TROUGH WILL HAVE                
MOVED PAST BY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF                 
THE TRULY COLD AIR WILL STILL BE TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE LOSE                      
DOWNSLOPE AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE LOWER                   
TEENS C. SUNSHINE AND MIXING SHOULD STILL HELP US GET INTO THE MID              
TO UPPER 60S.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT INSTILL A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN MAKING            
A FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  ABOUT THE ONLY THING I HAVE            
ANY CONFIDENCE IN AT ALL IS THAT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE UPPER                 
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH              
AMERICA.  PER SSEC SATELLITE LOOPS...TROPICAL CONVECTION REMAINS                
CENTERED OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.  THIS IS PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT HAS               
BEEN LOCATED FOR THE PAST WEEK. UNTIL WE SEE AN EASTWARD OR EVEN A              
FARTHER WESTWARD SHIFT...THINK THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY              
MUCH THE SAME IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD.                                        
DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAYS 4/5 ARE GOING             
TO BE HARD TO PIN DOWN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE                
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HOW UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVERTOPS THE             
RIDGE AND MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS.  MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN                  
FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CONUS                
NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MAINTAINING THE IDEA OF A WAVE                 
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE            
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  THE GFS               
AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH DIVING SOUTH INTO               
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING FAIRLY               
MERIDIONAL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SHOT OF               
COLDER AIR BUT DRY.                                                             
FOR NOW WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NOT             
MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS              
TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLING AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE                  
NECESSARY.                                                                      
INTO WEEK TWO...WILL GO WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                       
PRECIPITATION.  WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE WE SHOULD              
OSCILLATE BETWEEN SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES               
WITH BRIEF WARM UPS AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES EASTWARD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE              
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE                   
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL                
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY               
WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  31  67  39  66 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  30  73  38  66 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  35  76  40  68 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  31  73  40  68 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  29  62  35  67 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  30  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/02/02                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
811 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
808 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS COMING IN A                    
LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE GRIDS. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS                 
AND LATEST NAM/RUC...WIND DIRECTION IS GOING TO BE A MORE EASTERLY              
DIRECTION AS WELL. USED NAM FOR THE UPDATE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO A                
LITTLE HIGHER AND TWEEKED THOSE AND MINS UP. SINCE DO NOT EXPECT A              
STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS...AND HAVE LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS                     
UPSTREAM...LOOKS TO BE JUST STRATUS. SOUNDINGS AND NEW NAM SUPPORT              
THAT AND HAVE LESS FOG THAN EARLIER DEPICTED.                                   
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
345 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAF...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS                     
THROUGH APPROX 6-8Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO                 
THE IFR/LIFR RANGE WITH CIGS AT 200-500 FT AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK                    
AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE              
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BEFORE LIFTING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING SCT005                
AT KGLD AND AFTER 20Z OR SO AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH              
ENOUGH TO BRING THEM OUT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS. RUC VIS FORECASTS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD AND VERY LOW CONDITIONS IN THE STRATUS              
WHILE THE NAM HAS A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE STRATUS LINE AS IT MOVES                
SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN P6SM AT PRESENT TIME AND ALERT NEXT SHIFT              
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS ONCE THE STRATUS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS.                    
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
510 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THIS UPDATE IS GEARED PRIMARILY FOR AVIATION CONCERNS REGARDING THE             
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY               
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 NUMERICAL PREDICTIONS                
SUGGEST INCREASING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS AFTER ~ 06Z AS A                  
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT                   
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS FRONT ARE HIGHER THAN SOUTH OF THE                   
FRONT...AND THUS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S                              
OVERNIGHT...SATURATION IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CEILINGS               
DEVELOPING. THE LOCATIONS MOST VULNERABLE TO LOW CEILING                        
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAR WESTERN KANSAS...ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY              
ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD GCK AND PERHAPS EVEN DDC. THERE IS A GREATER                
PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT GCK VS. DDC...SO FOR THE 00Z              
TAFS...WILL INCLUDE AN IFR FORECAST FROM ~ 10Z TO 15Z AT GCK. HIGH              
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF              
POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. -UMSCHEID                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE TEMPS              
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MORNING                
U/A ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS                 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WAS EVIDENT WITH A COLD               
FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO              
MY CWA BY SUNRISE WITH ALL OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING A NORTHERLY                 
WIND AND CAA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUS, MAX TEMPS WILL BE                   
LOWER THAN TODAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF ON                      
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RAPID WARMUP, ESPECIALLY IN THE               
WEST. THE GRIDS WILL SHOW A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST              
ON TUESDAY WITH MID 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.                     
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL DURING THE NEXT 60 HOURS.                    
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
LOOKING AT THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS, THERE WILL BE A                
NICE WARM UP ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.  AT              
THE START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD, A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ALOFT.              
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A VERY MINOR WAVE IN THE H5 FLOW LATE THURSDAY               
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WASHES IT OUT BY LATE FRIDAY.  THE GFS ON THE             
OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
THURSDAY EVENING AND DIVES IT SOUTHEAST TO ARKANSAS BY 22/00Z OR                
LATE FRIDAY.  THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND             
THUS DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION ANY SLIGHT POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA                 
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS                   
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A               
COOL DOWN.  SINCE THIS FRONT IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT,                 
RAISED MAX TEMPS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND (TO A LESSER EXTENT) THURSDAY            
A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN MY SOUTHWEST ZONES WERE 850MB PROGS ARE            
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 70F IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF MY               
CWA ON WED, AND TO PERHAPS THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY PUT               
WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S IN SOME PLACES, MAINLY                
ALONG OUR SOUTHWEST BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA.                                       
BEYOND THURSDAY, SLIGHT DOWN SLOPE FLOW SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS AND             
MOST SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE GFS, WILL BRING SLOWLY MODERATING                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL START FRIDAY IN THE              
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, RANGING TO THE UPPER 50S IN                  
SOUTHWEST.  BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE               
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS MAY RETURN TO                 
BREEZY BY FRIDAY, MAINLY THERMALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN AFTER THE                   
MORNING INVERSIONS BREAK.  THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES RIPPLING                   
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT FOR NOW THESE APPEAR ON MODELS TO             
BE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, LIGHT            
WINDS AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  31  52  29  67 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  30  54  29  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  34  59  35  75 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  32  55  32  73 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  31  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  34  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN99/99/25                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
345 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008/                         
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)                                            
207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND                 
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WAS                
SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT               
WILL BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED             
WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUDINESS COULD BE A             
FACTOR FOR MONDAY TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS               
WHERE HAVE LEANED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WESTERN AREAS               
WILL SEE MORE SUN AND MAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 60S. GUIDANCE                    
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOW            
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH            
THE WARMEST GFS MOS ENSEMBLE MEMBER WITH ECMWF SUPPORT...YIELDING               
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. DEW POINTS SHOULD TANK IN THE              
WEST...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH WIND SO NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER                   
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. NEXT COLD FRONT BACKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH                    
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. APPEARING               
MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW AND HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD.              
STILL NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION.                                                 
.LONG TERM... (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)                                               
207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW              
FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP               
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DRY               
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES                
WILL START BELOW NORMAL WITH THURSDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE               
WEEK AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK                
COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING            
TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.                                                       
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
345 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAF...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS                     
THROUGH APPROX 6-8Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO                 
THE IFR/LIFR RANGE WITH CIGS AT 200-500 FT AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK                    
AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE              
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BEFORE LIFTING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING SCT005                
AT KGLD AND AFTER 20Z OR SO AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH              
ENOUGH TO BRING THEM OUT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS. RUC VIS FORECASTS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD AND VERY LOW CONDITIONS IN THE STRATUS              
WHILE THE NAM HAS A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE STRATUS LINE AS IT MOVES                
SOUTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN P6SM AT PRESENT TIME AND ALERT NEXT SHIFT              
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS ONCE THE STRATUS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS.                    
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)                                            
207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND                 
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WAS                
SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT               
WILL BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED             
WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUDINESS COULD BE A             
FACTOR FOR MONDAY TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS               
WHERE HAVE LEANED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WESTERN AREAS               
WILL SEE MORE SUN AND MAY REBOUND TO THE LOWER 60S. GUIDANCE                    
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOW            
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH            
THE WARMEST GFS MOS ENSEMBLE MEMBER WITH ECMWF SUPPORT...YIELDING               
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. DEW POINTS SHOULD TANK IN THE              
WEST...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH WIND SO NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER                   
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. NEXT COLD FRONT BACKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH                    
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. APPEARING               
MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW AND HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD.              
STILL NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION.                                                 
.LONG TERM... (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)                                               
207 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW              
FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP               
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DRY               
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES                
WILL START BELOW NORMAL WITH THURSDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE               
WEEK AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK                
COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING            
TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.                                                       
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1020 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAF...FIRST 15 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE                
VFR AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS               
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY 09Z CONDITIONS MAY DROP              
TO IFR/LIFR WITH CIGS AT 200 FT AT KMCK THEN KGLD BY 11Z (COULD BE              
A FEW HOURS SOONER AS MODELS USUALLY UNDERDO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT                
AND MOVEMENT) AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.              
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE LIFTING SLIGHTLY TO              
500 FT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A                   
SCATTERED DECK BETWEEN 200 AND 500 FT AS GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH NOT              
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE RUC AND NAM. RUC VISIBILITY FORECASTS SHOW                 
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                   
RESTRICTION...SIMILAR TO THE VARIOUS MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE VALUES.              
SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1020 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
107 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY BACK INTO THE            
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE A LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUDS             
ARE ON A VERY CLOSE TRAJECTORY WITH THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. CONCERNS FOR LIMITED INSOLATION/WESTWARD EXTENT OF FROPA         
WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY. FURTHER WEST...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY                  
APPROACH 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. DRY FROPA STILL EXPECTED THROUGH                 
TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT             
OF THE 40S ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL             
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED TO TREND                
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD VALUES ANTICIPATED.             
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE BEYOND DAY 3.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1020 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAF...FIRST 15 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE                
VFR AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS               
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY 09Z CONDITIONS MAY DROP              
TO IFR/LIFR WITH CIGS AT 200 FT AT KMCK THEN KGLD BY 11Z (COULD BE              
A FEW HOURS SOONER AS MODELS USUALLY UNDERDO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT                
AND MOVEMENT) AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.              
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE LIFTING SLIGHTLY TO              
500 FT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A                   
SCATTERED DECK BETWEEN 200 AND 500 FT AS GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH NOT              
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE RUC AND NAM. RUC VISIBILITY FORECASTS SHOW                 
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                   
RESTRICTION...SIMILAR TO THE VARIOUS MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE VALUES.              
SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
743 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THE REINFORCING CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS CROSSING INTO THE              
TEXAS SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS                
THE FRONT THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STILL LOOKING DRY.              
A FAIRLY DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.           
TRIMMED MORNING TEMPS DOWN 1 TO 2 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR               
MOST AREAS EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS MONDAY MORNING TO JUST SHY OF                 
SCA CRITERIA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HEADLINE COASTALS                   
WITH SCEC ON TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
SWEENEY                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CLEAR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
K. KUYPER                                                                       
.MARINE...BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS MONDAY MORNING TO JUST SHY OF                 
SCA CRITERIA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HEADLINE COASTALS                   
WITH SCEC ON TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PROVIDING LIGHT AND                      
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A CLOUD               
TO BE SEEN...WITH A SMALL SMOKE PLUME ACROSS COASTAL SE CAMERON                 
PARISH NEAR ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE.                                        
NEXT RE-ENFORCING FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN OK THIS                  
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND SFC HIGH WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH A STRONGER NE FLOW EXPECTED ON TUE. WITH THE WIND              
EXPECTED TO STAY UP AFTER FROPA...LOTS OF MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING              
..WITH LOWS BEING ATTAINED MAINLY FROM THE CAA TUE MORNING. WITH                
ABSOLUTELY NO MOISTURE POOLING OR LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...0%                  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.                                            
WITH CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUE AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE              
HELD TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS C LA...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.             
WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS OF THE HIGH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN                     
U.S...LOW TEMPS WED WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS C LA WITH MID 30S                    
EXPECTED...TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SE TX.                             
AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST WED AND THU...TEMPS WILL BE                      
MODERATING AS WELL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THOUGH.                               
THE PERIOD OF FRI THROUGH MON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH               
THE ECMWF & GFS RUNNING ALMOST 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH THEIR              
OUTPUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS OF COURSE IS GIVING A VARIED                 
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES...HAVE TRENDED TO THE LESS VOLATILE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH              
LEAVES LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.           
DML                                                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT SFC                  
HIGH MOVING SSE OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MAINLY SEE NE                 
FLOW FROM THIS EVENT ON TUE...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS ACROSS                
THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...15 KTS ACROSS THE 0-20NM COASTAL WATER              
ZONES...AND 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SCA               
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                    
DML                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  43  62  43  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0                                  
KBPT  44  65  45  70  54 /   0   0   0   0   0                                  
KAEX  41  57  35  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0                                  
KLFT  40  61  39  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DML                                                                             
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
741 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO                  
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH              
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFYING SHARPLY INTO THE ERN STATES                             
OVRNGT...LEADING TO A PD OF STRNG CAA (BEGINNING OVRNGT). INITIAL               
PUSH OF LLVL CAA ENTERING FAR WNW AREAS THIS EVE...TO CONT TO PASS              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA OVRNGT. UPR LVL JET MAX (NR 140KT AT                 
300MB ON LATEST RUC13) PASSING ACRS XTRM NRN NC/SRN VA THROUGH ABT              
04-06Z/18. MUCH OF FA IN RFQ OF THAT JET...AND THAT WL LEAD TO                  
CONTD BKN/OVC (HIER LVL) CLDNS THRUT MUCH OF VA/MD CTYS IN FA. DRY              
LLVLS (OVR THE RGN) AND UVM SUPPORT NEC FOR AT LEAST SCTD PCPN                  
THROUGH THIS EVE SHOULD RMN W AND N. WL NEED TO MONITOR PD FM LT                
EVE THROUGH OVRNGT HRS ACRS MNLY NRN HALF OF FA (GENLY ALG N OF                 
LKU-WAL LN) FOR BETTER PCPN CVRG. SNDGS FM NNE SXNS OF FA SUGG                  
PTNTL LWRG OF WET BULB ZERO HGT BLO 1KFT AFT MDNGT...PTNTLLY                    
LEADING TO PD OF SNSH THOSE AREAS. KPG POPS AT 50%...ESP ON THE                 
LWR MD ERN...W/ ANY XPCTD ACCUMS AOB 1/2 IN. ELSW (ACRS SXNS OF                 
CNTRL/SRN VA)...SLGT CHC POPS (FOR SHRAS...B4 PSBL FLURRIES LT).                
LO TEMPS IN THE 30S.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
STRNG/DP LYRD CAA XPCTD OVR FA DURG TUE...W/ STRNGLY ANOMALOUS UPR              
LVL LO PRES PASSING ACRS NCTNRL VA DURG MIDDAY...TO THE DELMARVA                
CST TWD EVE. VRY STEEP LAPSES FCST THRUT THE RGN FOR THE                        
MIDDAY/ERY AFTN HRS...W/ ENUF INSTABILITY...ESP CNTRL/ERN                       
SXNS...FOR AT LEAST BKN CIGS ARND 5-7KFT...20/30% POPS (MNLY SNSH)              
AND GSTY WNDS. H85 TEMPS PLUNGING TO BTWN -8 AND -10 DEGS C...AND               
DVLPG NNW LLVL AIR TRAJ INVOF BAY/CST (WHR WTR TEMPS +10 TO +13                 
DEGS C) - NRLY 20 TO 25 DEGS DELTA T...SHOULD GENERATE CONTD CHCS               
FOR SNSH (OR BAY/OCN STREAMERS) INTO AT LEAST 1ST PART OF TUE NGT               
(FAVORING PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS TO OTR BNKS). WND SPDS AVGG 15                
TO 25 MPH ACRS MUCH OF FA TUE...GUSTS AOA 30 MPH QUITE                          
PSBL...COMBINED W/ TEMPS NO BETTER THAN U30S-L40S...RESULTING IN                
WND CHILLS LRGLY IN 20S...DEFINITELY A MESSAGE THAT WINTER IS IN                
THE WAY.                                                                        
WL NEED TO WATCH PSBL OCN STM DVLPMNT E OF MDATLC RGN LT TUE/TUE                
NGT WHICH WOULD PROLONG HIER WNDSPDS INVOF CST...ALG W/ PSBL                    
CONTD LLVL CLD CVRG. SFC HI PRES FM THE W BUILDS IN THE RGN ON                  
WED. LLVL MIXING TO RMN LMTD AS RDG AXIS SLO TO CRS THE RGN DURG                
THE AFTN HRS. LLVL FLO AND WAA (AT LEAST ABV BLYR) BEGINS WED NGT               
(DCPLD LLVLS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NGT...EVEN TO THE CST...W/               
PSBL BEST SHOT AT A FZ INVOF ORF/VA BCH TO OTR BNKS NC. BETTER                  
(SFC) MIXING (AND CORRESPONDING MILDER SFC TEMPS - U40S- L50S)                  
XPCTD THU.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPR TROF OVER THE                
EASTERN U.S...AND GENERALLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS DURING DAYS 4 TO 7.                
FRI/SAT EXPECTED TO BE COLD AND DRY. NEXT FNTL SYSTEM FCST TO MOVE              
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS /CLOSER TO                 
NORMAL/ LIKELY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS TO              
TEMPER WARMING. ATTM...WILL HAVE A SILENT 20 PCT POP IN THE                     
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE                       
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARD TO HOW THEY HANDLE                
THIS FROPA...WITH GFS DRIER. DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF FROPA...MONDAY            
COULD BE JUST AS WARM AS SUNDAY...AND HAVE SHADED TEMPS TO THIS                 
THINKING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
A COLD FRONT AT 00Z EXTENDS FROM DELAWARE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL              
VIRGINIA JUST NORTHWEST OF RIC. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE              
THROUGH THE AREA...SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NW. BEHIND THE                     
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE TAKING PLACE AND AS TEMPERATURES                 
ALOFT DROP OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.               
THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SBY AREA WHERE THE SNOW WILL                   
CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITIES...BRIEFLY DROPPING TO IFR. THE REST OF THE              
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH CONDITIONS                   
REMAINING VFR. IN THE SE PART OF THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TUE...ESPECIALLY AT ORF...ON              
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM. SOME BAY                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE WIND                        
DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THEY WILL MAINLY AFFECTING THE               
LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.                                                
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUE...               
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS WITH A FORECAST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS              
TO 25.                                                                          
ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL END TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE                     
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL PASSABE LATE THU                  
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE TO BOATING ACTIVITY               
ACROSS CWA. RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY                
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE                 
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVECTION AND                 
OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. HAVED RAISED A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE                   
BAY...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SPCLY NAM...INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO             
GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINSH BELOW SCA CRITERIA...AS               
OFFSHORE STORM TAKES ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. EXPECT MORE             
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER INCREASE IN                
WINDS FRI/SAT AS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO REGION.               
LATEST GFS/MOSGUIDE WINDS APPEAR TO UNDER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...AND            
HAVE SIDED CLOSELY WITH HPC GUIDANCE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST               
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.                                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                  
     ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656-658.                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY              
     FOR ANZ633.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-             
     652-654-656-658.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ALB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ALB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ALB                                                                
LONG TERM...WRS                                                                 
AVIATION...LSA                                                                  
MARINE...WRS                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU LWR MI AND SFC HIGH             
PRES BUILDING E FROM WRN MN WILL SPELL A WEAKENING TREND IN LES                 
OVERNIGHT. 00Z CWPL/KINL SOUNDINGS SHOW EXPECTED LOWERING INVERSIONS            
NICELY WITH KINL SOUNDING REPRESENTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT               
FOR LES WITH LOWER INVERSION AROUND 865MB/4.4KFT MSL AND A WELL                 
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO HAS ALSO SHOWN             
A RAPID DIMINISHING OF LES OFF LAKE NIPIGON THIS EVENING. SO...GOING            
FCST OF ENDING ADVY FAR W OVERNIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVER THE W...               
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BTWN ONTONAGON (NW WIND) AND UPPER ENTRANCE OF            
PORTAGE CANAL (NE WIND) HAS BEEN FOCUSING HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING             
IN FAR NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE NE OF ONTONAGON...AROUND THE                 
HOUGHTON COUNTY LINE. THAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HRS. TO THE              
E...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR                 
LES...LAND BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP STRONGER TONIGHT UNDER DECREASING             
SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME AND COOLER INTERIOR. LOCAL HIGH RES WRF-ARW AND            
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z RUC SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING THRU            
THE NIGHT INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI...BECOMING MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED BTWN             
MARQUETTE AND DEERTON BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL WORK TO OFFSET            
THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LOCALLY. DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA WILL ALSO              
BENEFIT FROM PRECONDITIONING OFF LAKE NIPIGON. GOING FCST HAS THIS              
COVERED WELL...SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES ARE WARRANTED FOR THE CNTRL               
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. FARTHER E...IT APPEARS SOME DECENT SNOW IS            
FALLING IN PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY THOUGH PERSISTENT BANDING IS NOT             
EVIDENT. SINCE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO SHOULD VEER WINDS A BIT MORE             
NE OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...-SHSN SHOULD TEND TO                
DIMINISH WITH BULK OF HEAVIER SHSN SHIFTING W OF LUCE COUNTY DURING             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                                               
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN             
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA AND                  
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE               
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A 120-140 KT JET AROUND 200MB EXTENDS FROM                   
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MN. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THE MOST            
IMPORTANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV CROSSING NE WI. 12Z             
INL SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SITUATED SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SHRTWV BACK             
AT 12Z...SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 600MB...             
ALONG WITH TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW -10C THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COLD AIR            
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE                   
RUNNING 5-6C. BANDS WERE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER             
ERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
SNOWFALL RATES WERE 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE                   
SHORELINE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF            
THE WARMER LAKE PRODUCING MORE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES COMPARED TO THE               
DENDRITES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING                    
DISRUPTED THE BANDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE SUN IS               
SETTING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE A SINGLE            
BAND FORMING FROM LAKE NIPIGON...THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...TO             
MARQUETTE AND INTO NW LOWER MI. THIS IS DUE TO A NNE FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR IMPINGING ON NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA. TO THE WEST...1037MB HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE                    
PLAINS. DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH IS GRADUALLY MAKING IN ROADS INTO              
THE WESTERN CWA...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F AT CMX AND IWD. THIS            
DRIER AIR HAS KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT FROM BEING AS HEAVY OVER WESTERN             
UPPER MI. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A SHRTWV COMING INTO THE NW BRITISH              
COLUMBIA COAST...WHICH IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNT WISE...LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN             
ALGER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A FOOT SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH            
A REPORT FROM TRENARY AROUND 19 INCHES. MORE REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON             
THE LATEST ARBLSRMQT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                       
AS THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS...IT WILL PUSH THE SW CANADA RIDGE TOWARDS THE GREAT                      
LAKES...MORE FLATTENING IT OUT WITH TIME. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE                
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM                
HERE. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY            
TUESDAY...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO END WEST TO EAST. UNTIL THEN...               
TONIGHT APPEARS NOW OF MOSTLY MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS COMING OFF LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NE WI SHRTWV AND                
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE               
BANDS COULD BECOME STATIONARY...WHICH MEANS UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS IN            
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES WITH THE LONGER FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR            
COULD END UP WITH 5 INCHES OF 20-25 TO 1 SNOW. IN ADDITION...SINCE              
WE ARE GOING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM WHEN LAND BREEZES ARE                     
FAVORED...A STRONGER SINGLE BAND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
THEREFORE...AT LEAST THE WARNINGS FOR MQT..ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES SEEM REASONABLE. FOR WESTERN UPPER MI...DRIER AIR SHOULD               
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM...THOUGH EXTRA CONVERGENCE IN THE             
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTY AREA EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR A             
LITTLE EXTRA SNOW AND THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. GOING LOW                
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AS INVERSIONS LOWER...WINDS BACK              
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH              
OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH               
GRADUAL WARMING OF 850MB TEMPS...FROM AROUND -14C NOW TO -12C TUE               
AFTN...TOMORROW SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.                       
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
SFC RDG AXIS WL BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AT 00Z TUE...BUT WAD CLD WL BE             
SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV SPILLING OVER THE RDG IN              
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL BE INITIALLY DRY...THE ISENTROPIC             
LIFT SHOWN ON THE 280-295K SFCS/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC APPEARS                     
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF              
OF THE FA WHERE PARCELS WL HAVE A LONGER PD OF UPGLIDE TO SATURATE              
AND WHERE FLOW OFF LK MI WL ACCENTUATE MOISTENING ACRS THE ERN ZNS.             
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS. IN FACT...              
NAM/GFS QPF IS QUITE A BIT HIER OVER THE FAR ERN ZNS WHERE THERE IS             
LIKELY TO BE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHSN (H85 TEMPS FCST ARND               
-9C VS WATER TEMP ARND 8C) AFT 06Z IN SSW FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF LK            
MI. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS FOR ERY ALSO SHOW AN ALMOST 10K FT DEPTH OF              
LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME                
FRAME. ELECTED TO BUMP UP POP TO HI CHC/LIKELY IN THIS AREA ABV MOS             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
CLIPPER LO PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z THU. POTENTIAL               
FOR LK ENHANCED SHSN WL LINGER ON WED MRNG OVER THE FAR E...BUT                 
VEERING FLOW TO W LATER IN THE DAY WL END THE THREAT. LATER SHIFTS              
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN ZNS BEFORE THE             
LK ENHANCED SN DIMINISHES THERE. WL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO. OTRW...             
THREAT FOR LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END W-E WL LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT              
AND MID LVL DRY SURGE UNDER UPR JET AXIS THAT WL CUT OFF LLVL MSTR              
FM DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF CYC NW FLOW LATE IN               
THE DAY WL CAUSE SOME LES TO DVLP OVER THE W...BUT AIRMASS DOES NOT             
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD UNTIL LATE FOR SGNFT LES (H85 TEMP ARND -6C            
OVER WRN LK SUP AT 18Z FALLS TO -10C AT 00Z THU) WITH RELATIVELY                
SHALLOW MSTR BLO DGZ.                                                           
EXPECT INCRSG LES ON WED NGT/THU WITH STRENGTHENING NNW FLOW BTWN               
DEPARTING CLIPPER LO AND ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO SCNTRL CAN DRIVING            
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C OVER LK SUP BY 00Z FRI. MODELS SHOW H925                
WINDS BTWN 330-350 OR SO AND UP TO 30 KTS...WL HIT THE POPS UP HIEST            
IN THOSE AREAS FVRD BY THAT WIND DIRECTION. AT SOME POINT...A                   
HEADLINE FOR LES WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE FVRD AREAS WITH                
FCST SDNGS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. WL MENTION IN             
THE HWO FOR NOW. WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS ON THU...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL             
RECOVERY IN TEMP.                                                               
ONGOING LES/GUSTY WINDS ON THU NGT WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH W-E ON FRI              
WITH APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE            
QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING ARRIVAL OF               
RDG AXIS FM THE W AND ENDING OF THE LES. AS NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV                 
APRCHS FM THE W ON FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...A STRONG WAD PATTERN WL SET            
UP ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE NW OF DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. WL CARRY               
CHC POPS FOR -SN...WITH THE HIER POPS OVER NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA                
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LO PROGGED ACRS SRN ONTARIO AND WHERE THERE              
MAY BE SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL END ON               
SUN WITH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND TRANSITION TO LES INTO MON WITH COLD            
AIR INFUSION (00Z ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMP FALLING TO ARND -15C BY 12Z              
MON) IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER LO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AS                       
INTERMITTENT -SHSN PASS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO SHADOWING FROM ISLE               
ROYALE UNDER NNW WINDS...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.              
EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THOUGH              
IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR VIS COULD                 
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT               
WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AS                 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS. AS WINDS BACK SW LATE TUE AFTN...VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.                                                        
AT KSAW...UNDER NRLY WINDS...EXPECT WIDE SWINGS IN CONDITIONS AS                
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND UPSLOPING RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOW                 
SHOWERS AT TIMES. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR...                 
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR                    
CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...LOWERING                     
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING -SHSN WITH MVFR                   
CONDITIONS BECOMING THE RULE. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED               
EARLY TUE AFTN AS WINDS BACK W THEN SW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING            
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER            
LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED             
TO CROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE TO            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY...A                 
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS                
COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD BACK INTO UPPER               
MICHIGAN...BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BELOW GALES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUE MIZ005-006-085.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUE MIZ002-009.           
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUE MIZ013.                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AJ                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                                               
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN             
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA AND                  
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE               
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A 120-140 KT JET AROUND 200MB EXTENDS FROM                   
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MN. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THE MOST            
IMPORTANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV CROSSING NE WI. 12Z             
INL SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SITUATED SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SHRTWV BACK             
AT 12Z...SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 600MB...             
ALONG WITH TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW -10C THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COLD AIR            
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE                   
RUNNING 5-6C. BANDS WERE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER             
ERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
SNOWFALL RATES WERE 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE                   
SHORELINE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF            
THE WARMER LAKE PRODUCING MORE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES COMPARED TO THE               
DENDRITES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING                    
DISRUPTED THE BANDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE SUN IS               
SETTING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE A SINGLE            
BAND FORMING FROM LAKE NIPIGON...THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...TO             
MARQUETTE AND INTO NW LOWER MI. THIS IS DUE TO A NNE FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR IMPINGING ON NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA. TO THE WEST...1037MB HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE                    
PLAINS. DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH IS GRADUALLY MAKING IN ROADS INTO              
THE WESTERN CWA...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F AT CMX AND IWD. THIS            
DRIER AIR HAS KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT FROM BEING AS HEAVY OVER WESTERN             
UPPER MI. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A SHRTWV COMING INTO THE NW BRITISH              
COLUMBIA COAST...WHICH IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNT WISE...LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN             
ALGER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A FOOT SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH            
A REPORT FROM TRENARY AROUND 19 INCHES. MORE REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON             
THE LATEST ARBLSRMQT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                       
AS THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS...IT WILL PUSH THE SW CANADA RIDGE TOWARDS THE GREAT                      
LAKES...MORE FLATTENING IT OUT WITH TIME. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE                
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM                
HERE. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY            
TUESDAY...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO END WEST TO EAST. UNTIL THEN...               
TONIGHT APPEARS NOW OF MOSTLY MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS COMING OFF LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NE WI SHRTWV AND                
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE               
BANDS COULD BECOME STATIONARY...WHICH MEANS UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS IN            
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES WITH THE LONGER FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR            
COULD END UP WITH 5 INCHES OF 20-25 TO 1 SNOW. IN ADDITION...SINCE              
WE ARE GOING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM WHEN LAND BREEZES ARE                     
FAVORED...A STRONGER SINGLE BAND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
THEREFORE...AT LEAST THE WARNINGS FOR MQT..ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES SEEM REASONABLE. FOR WESTERN UPPER MI...DRIER AIR SHOULD               
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM...THOUGH EXTRA CONVERGENCE IN THE             
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTY AREA EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR A             
LITTLE EXTRA SNOW AND THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. GOING LOW                
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AS INVERSIONS LOWER...WINDS BACK              
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH              
OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH               
GRADUAL WARMING OF 850MB TEMPS...FROM AROUND -14C NOW TO -12C TUE               
AFTN...TOMORROW SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.                       
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
SFC RDG AXIS WL BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AT 00Z TUE...BUT WAD CLD WL BE             
SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV SPILLING OVER THE RDG IN              
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL BE INITIALLY DRY...THE ISENTROPIC             
LIFT SHOWN ON THE 280-295K SFCS/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC APPEARS                     
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF              
OF THE FA WHERE PARCELS WL HAVE A LONGER PD OF UPGLIDE TO SATURATE              
AND WHERE FLOW OFF LK MI WL ACCENTUATE MOISTENING ACRS THE ERN ZNS.             
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS. IN FACT...              
NAM/GFS QPF IS QUITE A BIT HIER OVER THE FAR ERN ZNS WHERE THERE IS             
LIKELY TO BE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHSN (H85 TEMPS FCST ARND               
-9C VS WATER TEMP ARND 8C) AFT 06Z IN SSW FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF LK            
MI. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS FOR ERY ALSO SHOW AN ALMOST 10K FT DEPTH OF              
LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME                
FRAME. ELECTED TO BUMP UP POP TO HI CHC/LIKELY IN THIS AREA ABV MOS             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
CLIPPER LO PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z THU. POTENTIAL               
FOR LK ENHANCED SHSN WL LINGER ON WED MRNG OVER THE FAR E...BUT                 
VEERING FLOW TO W LATER IN THE DAY WL END THE THREAT. LATER SHIFTS              
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN ZNS BEFORE THE             
LK ENHANCED SN DIMINISHES THERE. WL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO. OTRW...             
THREAT FOR LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END W-E WL LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT              
AND MID LVL DRY SURGE UNDER UPR JET AXIS THAT WL CUT OFF LLVL MSTR              
FM DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF CYC NW FLOW LATE IN               
THE DAY WL CAUSE SOME LES TO DVLP OVER THE W...BUT AIRMASS DOES NOT             
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD UNTIL LATE FOR SGNFT LES (H85 TEMP ARND -6C            
OVER WRN LK SUP AT 18Z FALLS TO -10C AT 00Z THU) WITH RELATIVELY                
SHALLOW MSTR BLO DGZ.                                                           
EXPECT INCRSG LES ON WED NGT/THU WITH STRENGTHENING NNW FLOW BTWN               
DEPARTING CLIPPER LO AND ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO SCNTRL CAN DRIVING            
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C OVER LK SUP BY 00Z FRI. MODELS SHOW H925                
WINDS BTWN 330-350 OR SO AND UP TO 30 KTS...WL HIT THE POPS UP HIEST            
IN THOSE AREAS FVRD BY THAT WIND DIRECTION. AT SOME POINT...A                   
HEADLINE FOR LES WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE FVRD AREAS WITH                
FCST SDNGS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. WL MENTION IN             
THE HWO FOR NOW. WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS ON THU...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL             
RECOVERY IN TEMP.                                                               
ONGOING LES/GUSTY WINDS ON THU NGT WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH W-E ON FRI              
WITH APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE            
QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING ARRIVAL OF               
RDG AXIS FM THE W AND ENDING OF THE LES. AS NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV                 
APRCHS FM THE W ON FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...A STRONG WAD PATTERN WL SET            
UP ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE NW OF DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. WL CARRY               
CHC POPS FOR -SN...WITH THE HIER POPS OVER NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA                
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LO PROGGED ACRS SRN ONTARIO AND WHERE THERE              
MAY BE SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL END ON               
SUN WITH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND TRANSITION TO LES INTO MON WITH COLD            
AIR INFUSION (00Z ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMP FALLING TO ARND -15C BY 12Z              
MON) IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER LO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AS                       
INTERMITTENT -SHSN PASS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO SHADOWING FROM ISLE               
ROYALE UNDER NNW WINDS...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.              
EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THOUGH              
IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR VIS COULD                 
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT               
WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AS                 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS. AS WINDS BACK SW LATE TUE AFTN...VFR               
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.                                                        
AT KSAW...UNDER NRLY WINDS...EXPECT WIDE SWINGS IN CONDITIONS AS                
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND UPSLOPING RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOW                 
SHOWERS AT TIMES. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR...                 
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR                    
CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...LOWERING                     
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING -SHSN WITH MVFR                   
CONDITIONS BECOMING THE RULE. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED               
EARLY TUE AFTN AS WINDS BACK W THEN SW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING            
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER            
LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED             
TO CROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE TO            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY...A                 
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS                
COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD BACK INTO UPPER               
MICHIGAN...BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BELOW GALES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR                           
     MIZ005-006-085.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY               
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                     
     MIZ001-003.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ013.                  
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AJ                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
432 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN             
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA AND                  
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE               
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A 120-140 KT JET AROUND 200MB EXTENDS FROM                   
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MN. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THE MOST            
IMPORTANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV CROSSING NE WI. 12Z             
INL SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SITUATED SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SHRTWV BACK             
AT 12Z...SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 600MB...             
ALONG WITH TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW -10C THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COLD AIR            
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE                   
RUNNING 5-6C. BANDS WERE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER             
ERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
SNOWFALL RATES WERE 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE                   
SHORELINE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF            
THE WARMER LAKE PRODUCING MORE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES COMPARED TO THE               
DENDRITES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING                    
DISRUPTED THE BANDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE SUN IS               
SETTING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE A SINGLE            
BAND FORMING FROM LAKE NIPIGON...THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...TO             
MARQUETTE AND INTO NW LOWER MI. THIS IS DUE TO A NNE FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR IMPINGING ON NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA. TO THE WEST...1037MB HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE                    
PLAINS. DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH IS GRADUALLY MAKING IN ROADS INTO              
THE WESTERN CWA...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F AT CMX AND IWD. THIS            
DRIER AIR HAS KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT FROM BEING AS HEAVY OVER WESTERN             
UPPER MI. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A SHRTWV COMING INTO THE NW BRITISH              
COLUMBIA COAST...WHICH IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNT WISE...LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN             
ALGER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A FOOT SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH            
A REPORT FROM TRENARY AROUND 19 INCHES. MORE REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON             
THE LATEST ARBLSRMQT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
AS THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS...IT WILL PUSH THE SW CANADA RIDGE TOWARDS THE GREAT                      
LAKES...MORE FLATTENING IT OUT WITH TIME. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE                
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM                
HERE. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY            
TUESDAY...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO END WEST TO EAST. UNTIL THEN...               
TONIGHT APPEARS NOW OF MOSTLY MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS COMING OFF LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NE WI SHRTWV AND                
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE               
BANDS COULD BECOME STATIONARY...WHICH MEANS UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS IN            
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES WITH THE LONGER FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR            
COULD END UP WITH 5 INCHES OF 20-25 TO 1 SNOW. IN ADDITION...SINCE              
WE ARE GOING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM WHEN LAND BREEZES ARE                     
FAVORED...A STRONGER SINGLE BAND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
THEREFORE...AT LEAST THE WARNINGS FOR MQT..ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES SEEM REASONABLE. FOR WESTERN UPPER MI...DRIER AIR SHOULD               
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM...THOUGH EXTRA CONVERGENCE IN THE             
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTY AREA EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR A             
LITTLE EXTRA SNOW AND THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. GOING LOW                
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AS INVERSIONS LOWER...WINDS BACK              
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH              
OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH               
GRADUAL WARMING OF 850MB TEMPS...FROM AROUND -14C NOW TO -12C TUE               
AFTN...TOMORROW SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.                       
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
SFC RDG AXIS WL BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AT 00Z TUE...BUT WAD CLD WL BE             
SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV SPILLING OVER THE RDG IN              
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL BE INITIALLY DRY...THE ISENTROPIC             
LIFT SHOWN ON THE 280-295K SFCS/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC APPEARS                     
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF              
OF THE FA WHERE PARCELS WL HAVE A LONGER PD OF UPGLIDE TO SATURATE              
AND WHERE FLOW OFF LK MI WL ACCENTUATE MOISTENING ACRS THE ERN ZNS.             
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS. IN FACT...              
NAM/GFS QPF IS QUITE A BIT HIER OVER THE FAR ERN ZNS WHERE THERE IS             
LIKELY TO BE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHSN (H85 TEMPS FCST ARND               
-9C VS WATER TEMP ARND 8C) AFT 06Z IN SSW FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF LK            
MI. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS FOR ERY ALSO SHOW AN ALMOST 10K FT DEPTH OF              
LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME                
FRAME. ELECTED TO BUMP UP POP TO HI CHC/LIKELY IN THIS AREA ABV MOS             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
CLIPPER LO PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z THU. POTENTIAL               
FOR LK ENHANCED SHSN WL LINGER ON WED MRNG OVER THE FAR E...BUT                 
VEERING FLOW TO W LATER IN THE DAY WL END THE THREAT. LATER SHIFTS              
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN ZNS BEFORE THE             
LK ENHANCED SN DIMINISHES THERE. WL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO. OTRW...             
THREAT FOR LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END W-E WL LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT              
AND MID LVL DRY SURGE UNDER UPR JET AXIS THAT WL CUT OFF LLVL MSTR              
FM DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF CYC NW FLOW LATE IN               
THE DAY WL CAUSE SOME LES TO DVLP OVER THE W...BUT AIRMASS DOES NOT             
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD UNTIL LATE FOR SGNFT LES (H85 TEMP ARND -6C            
OVER WRN LK SUP AT 18Z FALLS TO -10C AT 00Z THU) WITH RELATIVELY                
SHALLOW MSTR BLO DGZ.                                                           
EXPECT INCRSG LES ON WED NGT/THU WITH STRENGTHENING NNW FLOW BTWN               
DEPARTING CLIPPER LO AND ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO SCNTRL CAN DRIVING            
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C OVER LK SUP BY 00Z FRI. MODELS SHOW H925                
WINDS BTWN 330-350 OR SO AND UP TO 30 KTS...WL HIT THE POPS UP HIEST            
IN THOSE AREAS FVRD BY THAT WIND DIRECTION. AT SOME POINT...A                   
HEADLINE FOR LES WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE FVRD AREAS WITH                
FCST SDNGS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. WL MENTION IN             
THE HWO FOR NOW. WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS ON THU...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL             
RECOVERY IN TEMP.                                                               
ONGOING LES/GUSTY WINDS ON THU NGT WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH W-E ON FRI              
WITH APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE            
QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING ARRIVAL OF               
RDG AXIS FM THE W AND ENDING OF THE LES. AS NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV                 
APRCHS FM THE W ON FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...A STRONG WAD PATTERN WL SET            
UP ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE NW OF DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. WL CARRY               
CHC POPS FOR -SN...WITH THE HIER POPS OVER NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA                
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LO PROGGED ACRS SRN ONTARIO AND WHERE THERE              
MAY BE SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL END ON               
SUN WITH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND TRANSITION TO LES INTO MON WITH COLD            
AIR INFUSION (00Z ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMP FALLING TO ARND -15C BY 12Z              
MON) IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER LO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
21Z...UPDATED CMX                                                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR BOTH               
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                
AT CMX...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GREATLY FROM A FEW HOURS                      
AGO...WITH VSBYS AND CIGS BOTH VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE NOW...THAT AT                
LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL WINDS GO MORE NW...THAT VSBYS             
AND CIGS STAY VFR. THIS IS DUE TO BLOCKING OF THE LAKE EFFECT OFF               
ISLE ROYALE. IF THE TREND CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE             
TAF WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE             
EXPECTED TO HANG IN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH.                          
AT SAW...WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
HELP MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE              
MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DUE TO CONVERGENCE              
OF THE WINDS NEAR SAW AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.            
VIS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN IFR AND VLIFR WITH CIGS BTWN MVFR AND            
LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK...ALLOWING DRIER             
AIR TO MOVE IN. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...ENOUGH DRYING AND BACKING            
OF THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TO BRING VIS UP TO VFR AND CIGS TO MVFR.              
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP ENOUGH TO GO VFR AFTER THE END OF               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING            
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER            
LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED             
TO CROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE TO            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY...A                 
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS                
COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD BACK INTO UPPER               
MICHIGAN...BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BELOW GALES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR                           
     MIZ005-006-085.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY               
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                     
     MIZ001-003.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ013.                  
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AJ                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
103 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
17Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHRTWV CROSSING                  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DIVING SE THROUGH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE                 
GREAT LAKES. NO GOOD 12Z RAOB SOUNDING LOCATED UNDER THE                        
SHRTWV...HOWEVER THE ONE FROM INL WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE SHRTWV                 
SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 600MB...ALONG WITH            
TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW -10C THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COLD AIR CROSSING              
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ORIENTATION            
OF THE BANDS HAS BEEN A BIT PUZZLING THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY                
HERE IN THE PAST HOUR AS WHAT IT APPEARS TO BE AN EAST-WEST BAND                
DROPPING SOUTH. BEST GUESS PER SFC ANALYSIS IS THAT THE BAND IS THE             
TYPICAL LAKE-INDUCED SFC TROUGH THAT IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY               
THE SHRTWV. OUTSIDE OF THE TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT STILL REMAINS                   
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE NORMAL DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING              
BANDS...BUT IN THE MEAN THERE ARE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR              
ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...NRN DELTA COUNTY...AND                  
SCATTERED ABOUT OVER THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA. LOOKS LIKE THE ISSUE              
OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS FINALLY BEEN FIGURED OUT...WITH OBS OVER               
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TURNING NE. THE ISSUE WAS RELATED             
TO MODEL HANDLING OF THE SHRTWV...WHERE THE MORE NW WIND OF THE GFS             
WAS DUE TO ITS MUCH FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SHRTWV. OTHER                     
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/RUC 13 WERE SLOWER WITH            
THE SHRTWV AND THEREFORE ALLOWING MORE NE WIND TO DEVELOP. UPDATED              
FORECAST BACK AT 10 AM HEDGED TOWARD THE MORE NE IDEA...WHICH STILL             
FAVORS THE ERN PORTION OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WRN ALGER COUNTY.                
THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR RATES. SEE LOCAL             
STORM REPORTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. IN ADDITION...ALL MESOSCALE                 
MODELS INSIST ON A BAND OVER WRN ALGER COUNTY BEING PUSHED INTO                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY SOMEWHERE AROUND 21 OR 22Z...WITH A LOT OF LIFT.               
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THAT AFTER            
THE SHRTWV PASSES...THE BAND WOULD HAVE TO MIGRATE WESTWARD...THEN              
GET ENHANCED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WSW STATEMENT INCLUDES POTENTIAL            
FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND. OVERALL TO THE FORECAST...NO            
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 523 AM EST)...                                           
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN N.A.               
WITH A RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN N.A. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE EAST OF LAKE              
WINNIPEG AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER HERE FOR TODAY            
AND ALSO INTO TONIGHT AS IT WILL AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION             
WITH SOME COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND RAISING                    
INVERSION HEIGHTS.                                                              
NAM SHOWING SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE             
CWA TODAY WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT                 
TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING.                                              
NAM/GFS SHOW SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING 06Z WED             
AND THIS LASTS THROUGH 00Z THU BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT.                
THIS FORECAST WAS VERY DIFFICULT TODAY BASED ON MESOSCALE EFFECTS               
WITH MODELS THAT DO NOT HANDLE THE MESOSCALE WELL AT ALL. PROBLEM               
CONTINUES TO BE THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO WIND                    
DIRECTION. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL...EXCEPT WHEN IT             
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT. THE GFS IS SHOWING A NNW WIND WHICH IT HAS                
BEEN CONSISTENT DOING. CANADIAN IS NORTHERLY AND A COMPROMISE. THE              
RUC/NAM/HI RES WRF SHOW A NNE WIND AND THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN              
SHOWING THAT AS WELL. SO FAR...THE COMPROMISE CANADIAN SEEMS TO BE              
DOING BETTER ON THE WIND DIRECTION ANYWAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL MAKE             
A DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW FALLS AND HAD A TOUGH TIME                 
FIGURING THIS OUT. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE NORTH WIND DIRECTION AND              
THIS LASTS LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW CHANGES TO HEADLINES. WITH A              
NORTH WIND...THE EAST HALF OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL GET HIT WITH A              
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT WARNING               
THERE WITH NEARLY A FOOT OR MORE EAST OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO               
MCFARLAND EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE BAND ACROSS ERN MARQUETTE AND                
WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES...THIS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY AND             
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS WELL AND HAD TO PUT THEM IN                    
ADVISORIES FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. ADDED THE KEWEENAW AS WELL FOR            
HEAVIER SNOW TODAY WITH ADVISORY LOOKING GOOD THERE AND ONTONAGON               
AND GOGEBIC ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS WELL TODAY.                                 
INVERSION HEIGHTS START FALLING TONIGHT...SO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE                
WEST WILL TAPER OFF FIRST AND NO ADVISORIES NEEDED. OVER THE                    
EAST...HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AS WELL AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL              
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BAND SHIFTS EAST OF MARQUETTE. WILL PROBABLY HAVE            
TO HAVE HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND                
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AND WITH             
MODELS UP IN THE AIR ON THIS FOR TIMING...DID NOT CHANGE TIMING FOR             
NOW. WITH NEWER GUIDANCE COMING IN...THIS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER.                
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE...SO LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN.              
ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH WOULD BE A POSSIBLE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR TUE NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL               
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR ENOUGH DELTA-T TO FORM LAKE                  
MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE RIGHT NOW            
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                                                           
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. BUMPED POPS UP             
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE CLIPPER AS MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE              
ABUNDANT ALONG WITH DYNAMICS ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.                  
INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE NEXT LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR WED NIGHT AND            
THU. BASED ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FOR CMX...IWD...ERY AND SAW...COULD             
HAVE ANOTHER EVENT LIKE WHAT WE JUST HAD WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE            
STAY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THESE SOUNDINGS ARE                     
INDICATING. THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON IDEAL SNOW GROWTH AND CUT AMOUNTS            
DOWN FROM WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNT. THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND SEE IF THE                
LIFT AND MOISTURE STAY BELOW THE IDEAL TEMPERATURES FOR IDEAL SNOW              
GROWTH.                                                                         
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR BOTH               
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                
AT CMX...CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND                
LIFR ON VIS AND MVFR/IFR ON CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...DUE TO              
NW WINDS AND ENHANCEMENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.                       
TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VIS AND CIGS                
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TO VFR ON THE VIS AND                
MVFR ON THE CIG BY SUNRISE. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO STAY AROUND              
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...THOUGH.                                                  
AT SAW...WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
HELP MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE              
MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DUE TO CONVERGENCE              
OF THE WINDS NEAR SAW AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.            
VIS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN IFR AND VLIFR WITH CIGS BTWN MVFR AND            
LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK...ALLOWING DRIER             
AIR TO MOVE IN. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...ENOUGH DRYING AND BACKING            
OF THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TO BRING VIS UP TO VFR AND CIGS TO MVFR.              
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP ENOUGH TO GO VFR AFTER THE END OF               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN              
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO IOWA AND MISSOURI BY TUESDAY            
MORNING...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR             
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY                  
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE TO              
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...USHERING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR              
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  LOOK FOR DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL                
CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.               
THIS WILL ALLOW A SIZABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUE MIZ006-085.                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 5 AM EST THIS MORNING MIZ007.                     
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUE MIZ005.                           
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                  
       MIZ001>003-009-013.                                                      
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING MIZ014.                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...GM                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1017 PM EST                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SSE                
THRU ERN MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF IT NRN            
ONTARIO. CWPL SOUNDING SHOWS THE IMPACT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE.             
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED SHARP INVERSION BASED AT 850MB/4.4KFT MSL WHILE             
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED INVERSION BASED AT 770MB/7KFT MSL. SO...THESE               
FEATURES WILL GIVE LES A SOLID BOOST LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON             
MORNING AS THEY HEAD SSE. DESPITE CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR IN THE                
CONVECTIVE LAYER THAN LAST EVENING PER KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE...                 
ONGOING LES OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI IS SURPRISINGLY             
VERY DISORGANIZED...MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING. OUT WEST...POCKET OF DRY            
WELL MIXED LAYER AIR PER AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM CYQT HAS HAD A               
STRONG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LES. SFC OBS/WEB CAMS SUGGEST -SHSN HAVE              
BEEN VERY LIGHT DURING THE LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. MORE                   
RECENTLY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM KDLH IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LES                
BANDING INTO FAR WRN GOGEBIC COUNTY...SO LES IS PICKING UP IN THAT              
AREA NOW.                                                                       
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LES                  
REGIME OVERNIGHT INTO MON. SO...FOR THE MOST PART...ONLY MINOR                  
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE TO RUN SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT LES ADVY THRU 12Z AS WIND FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT THE               
POTENTIAL OF STRONGER LES BANDS REACHING THAT AREA THRU THE                     
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS IN NRN DELTA COUNTY               
(NORTH AND EAST OF RAPID RIVER) OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS THE DOMINANT              
BAND THAT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN ALGER/ERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES SHOULD             
EXTEND THAT FAR S GIVEN THE LIFTING INVERSION.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 405 PM EST                                               
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO FEED COLD AND            
MOIST AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LK EFFECT SNOWS ARE FLYING...MOST             
NMRS BTWN SHOT POINT IN FAR ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO NEWBERRY.                   
DAYTIME ACCUMS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA HAVE                
MAXED OUT BTWN 3-5 INCHES. DESPITE MOISTURE TO H7 AND SUFFICIENT                
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T/S OVR 15C...SHIFTING WINDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED            
DOMINANT BAND TO SET UP AND PERSIST IN ANY ONE SPOT. ELSEWHERE ALONG            
LAKE SUPERIOR...LK EFFECT IS BENIGN AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING                 
ABOVE 5KFT AS THE UPR LAKES IS BTWN SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ROTATING                
THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT WAVE OF IMPORTANCE IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS              
NORTHERN MANITOBA. ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                
MORNING SHAPRENS LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AND WILL INTENSIFY THE LK                  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LONGWAVE TROUGH AND COOL TEMPS PERSIST THROUGH             
MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK...KEEPING LK EFFECT GOING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE              
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE LK EFFECT IS CURRENTLY OVR NRN            
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE UPR LAKES                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... ISSUED AT 405 PM EST                        
GFS AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH HOW THE LOW            
LEVEL WINDS BEHAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO               
MONDAY. FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS HAS REMAINED WITH MORE OF A             
NW WIND WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/LOCAL WRF/RUC13 POINT TO                
SHARPTER TROUGHING AND A NORTH WIND. NOT A BIG DIFFERENCE...BUT THE             
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ARE LARGE. CANADIAN GEM IS A COMPROMISE            
AND IS FAVORED BY HPC AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THE GRIDS. NW LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW KEEPS MODERATE LK EFFECT INTO ALGER AND NORTHERN PORTION             
OF SCHOOLCRAFT THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN              
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVR ALGER COUNTY AS WINDS OVR             
CNTRL CWA BACK WITH BLYR COOLING/DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE. IN THE WRN             
CWA...LK EFFECT SHOULD PICK UP (UP TO 4" OF ACCUMULATION) AS                    
PERSISTENT MOIST NW FLOW THROUGH H85 IS SUPPLEMENTED BY ADDITIONAL              
MOISTURE TO H7 COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND AS H85 TEMPS                
COOL.                                                                           
NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BUT THEN AS SHORTWAVE PASSES             
THROUGH...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NRLY. REGIONAL GEM SUGGESTS PERIOD             
OF N WINDS OCCURS BTWN 15Z AND 21Z. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...EXPECT                
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVR FAR WEST AND ALSO INTO ERN MARQUETTE               
COUNTY. REGIONAL GEM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BY TIME WINDS BECOME               
NORTH IN THE FAR WEST CWA...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO                 
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED THERE. IT WILL BE CLOSE                 
THOUGH. DECIDED TO KEEP A HIGH END LES ADVY FOR GOGEBIC INTO                    
ONTONAGON. MEANWHILE...FM WESTERN HALF OF ALGER INTO ERN MARQUETTE              
COUNTY...SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT                    
MOISTURE TO H7-H6 AND H85/H7 TEMPS OF -13C/-22C RESULTING IN LK                 
INDUCED CAPES EXCEEDING 800J/KG. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE MAIN                 
CONVERGENCE BAND IN THIS AREA WILL EXCEED 1"/HR. HAVE DECIDED TO                
KEEP THE ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY...WITH EXPECTATION THAT PERIOD OF            
NRLY WINDS/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE SHORT ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT WARNING               
AMOUNTS. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE MODELS THAT SHOW QUICKER DEPICTION OF               
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH COME TO FRUITION...THEN A WARNING WOULD              
BE NEEDED FOR MARQUETTE. WARNING AMOUNTS FOR WRN ALGER SEEM A NEAR              
CERTAINTY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTN...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO ALGER            
COUNTY AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.                     
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                     
ONGOING LES IN THE N WIND SN BELTS ON MON WL BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO                
AREAS FVRD BY NW WINDS ON MON NGT OVER THE W AND E OF MQT ON TUE AS             
THE LLVL FLOW GRDLY BACKS MORE NW WITH THE APRCH OF A HI PRES RDG               
THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR MPX BY 12Z TUE UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS.              
AS SUBSIDENCE INVRN GRDLY SINKS W-E MON NGT...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST               
LES TO DIMINISH AS WELL. MODEL DISCREPANCIES NOTED OVER THE LAST FEW            
DAYS PERSIST WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE HIER RES              
MODELS LIKE THE NAM/CNDN/LOCAL WRF-ARW IN BACKING THE FLOW AND                  
LOWERING THE INVRN BASE...ESPECIALLY ON MON NGT. CONSIDERING THE                
BETTER LLVL RESOLUTION OF THE NAM/CNDN/WRF-ARW...WL TEND TOWARD THE             
SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THAT GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOING                 
HEADLINES MIGHT NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED 6-12 HRS. UNTIL                  
GUIDANCE BECOMES CLEARER...WL HOLD OFF ON CHANGING HEADLINE TIMES.              
THE NAM/CNDN ACTUALLY BECOME FASTEST THAN THE GFS TO RAISE THE MSLP             
ON TUE AND PUSH THE RDG AXIS TO THE E. EVEN THOUGH THE INVRN BASE               
LOWERS STEADILY AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FM BOTH MODELS (ALBEIT AT                
DIFFERENT RATES)...TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR BLO THE INVRN ARE LO              
ENUF (H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AT 06Z TUE) TO FAVOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH              
ALMOST TO THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS. SO WL APPROXIMATE SN AMTS            
WITH A HIGH SN/WATER RATIO AOA 20:1. BY LATE TUE...THE FLOW IS                  
PROGGED TO BE W ENUF SO THAT THE ONLY LINGERING LES SHOULD BE OVER              
THE KEWEENAW AND E OF P53.                                                      
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUE NGT AND A SHRTWV EMBEDDED                
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROF OVER              
THE E APRCHS THE FA...STRONG WAD AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS WITH             
HGT AND SHARP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K-295K SFCS (H85-6) IS                  
PROGGED TO DVLP OVER UPR MI. ALTHOUGH FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY DRY                  
LLVLS...BOTH THE GFS/NAM TEND TO SATURATE THE LLVLS OVER THE NW FA              
ENUF TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF CHC POP WHERE H85-7 FGEN IS FCST. BUT              
PCPN AMTS WL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF SGNFT ABSOLUTE MSTR INFLOW. AS               
THE SFC LO/ATTENDANT PRES TROF APRCH THE UPR GRT LKS...HAVE SPRD CHC            
POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FA. TENDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z CNDN/NAM              
MODELS AS THIS NEW GUIDANCE IS BETTER IN LINE WITH NCEP PREFERRED               
00Z ECMWF ON HANDLING OF SHRTWV. WITH BETTER 280-295K ISENTROPIC                
LIFT/H85 QVECTOR CNVGC FCST OVER THE NE FA CLOSER TO SHRTWV                     
TRACK/DOWNWIND OF SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI...WENT WITH THE HIER                
POPS ACRS NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA COUNTIES.                                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD...NCEP INDICATED A PREFERENCE FOR THE 0Z              
ECMWF FCST...WHICH IS GENERALLY A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN RECENT              
GFS FCSTS. COLD AIR INFUSION IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV (00Z ECMWF SHOWS             
H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -17C BY 00Z FRI OVER WRN LK SUP)                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR PCPN CHCS ON WED WL BRING A SHOT OF LES WED NIGT                
INTO FRI AS GUSTY N WINDS/PSBL GALES ON LK SUP BTWN HI PRES OVER SE             
CAN AND LO PRES TO THE E DRAG THE COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. LES              
ADVYS/WRNGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT AT SOME POINT...WL               
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE LES WL DIMINISH FRI/FRI NGT WITH              
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG...BUT WAD AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES               
EXPECTED TO MOVE E TOWARD THE UPR LKS WL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FA AS              
EARLY AS FRI NGT. WL CARRY CHC POPS FOR SOME -SN THRU THE DAY ON                
SAT...WITH THE HIER POPS ACRS THE NRN FA CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK                
FCST BY BULK OF GUIDANCE ACRS NRN LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO. THEN LO             
CHC POPS FOR SOME LES ON SUN WITH SOME CAD IN THE WAKE OF THE LO.               
TEMPS AOB NORMAL INTO FRI WL RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY               
LAYER WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHT AS APPROACHING UPPER             
LEVEL DISTURBANCE INCREASES MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFTS INVERSION.                 
THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN WILL BE                   
FURTHER ENHANCED DURING THE DAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE. SO...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR IN            
THE MORNING. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER AFTN/EVENING                    
AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                    
DEPARTS.                                                                        
AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING VFR                   
CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EARLY IN THE MORNING...                      
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE                 
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AS MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AND                
INVERSION LIFTS. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE               
DAYBREAK WITH DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR MID TO LATE MORNING.                        
DOMINANT/INTENSE SNOW BAND ON A CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING SW OVER               
SRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD IMPACT KSAW AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN                  
(PROBABLY EARLY AFTN BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE). LIFR CONDITIONS A               
GOOD BET WITH THIS BAND. ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TO IFR EXPECTED               
AFTER THE BAND PASSES AS FAVORABLE UPSLOPING NRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE            
INTO THE EVENING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL STAY NORTH TO NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY                
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT             
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. N             
GALES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT IN THE SHARP PRESSURE               
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND INCOMING              
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD           
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUE MIZ006-085.                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 5 AM EST MON MIZ007.                              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FROM 4 AM MON TO 1 AM EST TUE MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MON MIZ002-009.               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 AM EST MON MIZ014.                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS...JLA                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SSE                
THRU ERN MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF IT NRN            
ONTARIO. CWPL SOUNDING SHOWS THE IMPACT THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE.             
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED SHARP INVERSION BASED AT 850MB/4.4KFT MSL WHILE             
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED INVERSION BASED AT 770MB/7KFT MSL. SO...THESE               
FEATURES WILL GIVE LES A SOLID BOOST LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON             
MORNING AS THEY HEAD SSE. DESPITE CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR IN THE                
CONVECTIVE LAYER THAN LAST EVENING PER KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE...                 
ONGOING LES OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI IS SURPRISINGLY             
VERY DISORGANIZED...MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING. OUT WEST...POCKET OF DRY            
WELL MIXED LAYER AIR PER AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM CYQT HAS HAD A               
STRONG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LES. SFC OBS/WEB CAMS SUGGEST -SHSN HAVE              
BEEN VERY LIGHT DURING THE LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. MORE                   
RECENTLY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM KDLH IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LES                
BANDING INTO FAR WRN GOGEBIC COUNTY...SO LES IS PICKING UP IN THAT              
AREA NOW.                                                                       
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LES                  
REGIME OVERNIGHT INTO MON. SO...FOR THE MOST PART...ONLY MINOR                  
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE TO RUN SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT LES ADVY THRU 12Z AS WIND FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT THE               
POTENTIAL OF STRONGER LES BANDS REACHING THAT AREA THRU THE                     
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS IN NRN DELTA COUNTY               
(NORTH AND EAST OF RAPID RIVER) OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS THE DOMINANT              
BAND THAT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN ALGER/ERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES SHOULD             
EXTEND THAT FAR S GIVEN THE LIFTING INVERSION.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 405 PM EST                                               
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO FEED COLD AND            
MOIST AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LK EFFECT SNOWS ARE FLYING...MOST             
NMRS BTWN SHOT POINT IN FAR ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO NEWBERRY.                   
DAYTIME ACCUMS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA HAVE                
MAXED OUT BTWN 3-5 INCHES. DESPITE MOISTURE TO H7 AND SUFFICIENT                
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T/S OVR 15C...SHIFTING WINDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED            
DOMINANT BAND TO SET UP AND PERSIST IN ANY ONE SPOT. ELSEWHERE ALONG            
LAKE SUPERIOR...LK EFFECT IS BENIGN AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING                 
ABOVE 5KFT AS THE UPR LAKES IS BTWN SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ROTATING                
THROUGH THE REGION. NEXT WAVE OF IMPORTANCE IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS              
NORTHERN MANITOBA. ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                
MORNING SHAPRENS LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AND WILL INTENSIFY THE LK                  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LONGWAVE TROUGH AND COOL TEMPS PERSIST THROUGH             
MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK...KEEPING LK EFFECT GOING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE              
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE LK EFFECT IS CURRENTLY OVR NRN            
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE UPR LAKES                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... ISSUED AT 405 PM EST                        
GFS AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH HOW THE LOW            
LEVEL WINDS BEHAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO               
MONDAY. FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS HAS REMAINED WITH MORE OF A             
NW WIND WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/LOCAL WRF/RUC13 POINT TO                
SHARPTER TROUGHING AND A NORTH WIND. NOT A BIG DIFFERENCE...BUT THE             
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ARE LARGE. CANADIAN GEM IS A COMPROMISE            
AND IS FAVORED BY HPC AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THE GRIDS. NW LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW KEEPS MODERATE LK EFFECT INTO ALGER AND NORTHERN PORTION             
OF SCHOOLCRAFT THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN              
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVR ALGER COUNTY AS WINDS OVR             
CNTRL CWA BACK WITH BLYR COOLING/DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE. IN THE WRN             
CWA...LK EFFECT SHOULD PICK UP (UP TO 4" OF ACCUMULATION) AS                    
PERSISTENT MOIST NW FLOW THROUGH H85 IS SUPPLEMENTED BY ADDITIONAL              
MOISTURE TO H7 COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND AS H85 TEMPS                
COOL.                                                                           
NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BUT THEN AS SHORTWAVE PASSES             
THROUGH...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NRLY. REGIONAL GEM SUGGESTS PERIOD             
OF N WINDS OCCURS BTWN 15Z AND 21Z. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...EXPECT                
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVR FAR WEST AND ALSO INTO ERN MARQUETTE               
COUNTY. REGIONAL GEM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BY TIME WINDS BECOME               
NORTH IN THE FAR WEST CWA...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO                 
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED THERE. IT WILL BE CLOSE                 
THOUGH. DECIDED TO KEEP A HIGH END LES ADVY FOR GOGEBIC INTO                    
ONTONAGON. MEANWHILE...FM WESTERN HALF OF ALGER INTO ERN MARQUETTE              
COUNTY...SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT                    
MOISTURE TO H7-H6 AND H85/H7 TEMPS OF -13C/-22C RESULTING IN LK                 
INDUCED CAPES EXCEEDING 800J/KG. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE MAIN                 
CONVERGENCE BAND IN THIS AREA WILL EXCEED 1"/HR. HAVE DECIDED TO                
KEEP THE ADVY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY...WITH EXPECTATION THAT PERIOD OF            
NRLY WINDS/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE SHORT ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT WARNING               
AMOUNTS. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE MODELS THAT SHOW QUICKER DEPICTION OF               
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH COME TO FRUITION...THEN A WARNING WOULD              
BE NEEDED FOR MARQUETTE. WARNING AMOUNTS FOR WRN ALGER SEEM A NEAR              
CERTAINTY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTN...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO ALGER            
COUNTY AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.                     
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                     
ONGOING LES IN THE N WIND SN BELTS ON MON WL BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO                
AREAS FVRD BY NW WINDS ON MON NGT OVER THE W AND E OF MQT ON TUE AS             
THE LLVL FLOW GRDLY BACKS MORE NW WITH THE APRCH OF A HI PRES RDG               
THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR MPX BY 12Z TUE UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS.              
AS SUBSIDENCE INVRN GRDLY SINKS W-E MON NGT...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST               
LES TO DIMINISH AS WELL. MODEL DISCREPANCIES NOTED OVER THE LAST FEW            
DAYS PERSIST WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE HIER RES              
MODELS LIKE THE NAM/CNDN/LOCAL WRF-ARW IN BACKING THE FLOW AND                  
LOWERING THE INVRN BASE...ESPECIALLY ON MON NGT. CONSIDERING THE                
BETTER LLVL RESOLUTION OF THE NAM/CNDN/WRF-ARW...WL TEND TOWARD THE             
SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THAT GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOING                 
HEADLINES MIGHT NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED 6-12 HRS. UNTIL                  
GUIDANCE BECOMES CLEARER...WL HOLD OFF ON CHANGING HEADLINE TIMES.              
THE NAM/CNDN ACTUALLY BECOME FASTEST THAN THE GFS TO RAISE THE MSLP             
ON TUE AND PUSH THE RDG AXIS TO THE E. EVEN THOUGH THE INVRN BASE               
LOWERS STEADILY AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FM BOTH MODELS (ALBEIT AT                
DIFFERENT RATES)...TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR BLO THE INVRN ARE LO              
ENUF (H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AT 06Z TUE) TO FAVOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH              
ALMOST TO THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS. SO WL APPROXIMATE SN AMTS            
WITH A HIGH SN/WATER RATIO AOA 20:1. BY LATE TUE...THE FLOW IS                  
PROGGED TO BE W ENUF SO THAT THE ONLY LINGERING LES SHOULD BE OVER              
THE KEWEENAW AND E OF P53.                                                      
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUE NGT AND A SHRTWV EMBEDDED                
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROF OVER              
THE E APRCHS THE FA...STRONG WAD AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS WITH             
HGT AND SHARP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K-295K SFCS (H85-6) IS                  
PROGGED TO DVLP OVER UPR MI. ALTHOUGH FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY DRY                  
LLVLS...BOTH THE GFS/NAM TEND TO SATURATE THE LLVLS OVER THE NW FA              
ENUF TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF CHC POP WHERE H85-7 FGEN IS FCST. BUT              
PCPN AMTS WL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF SGNFT ABSOLUTE MSTR INFLOW. AS               
THE SFC LO/ATTENDANT PRES TROF APRCH THE UPR GRT LKS...HAVE SPRD CHC            
POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FA. TENDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z CNDN/NAM              
MODELS AS THIS NEW GUIDANCE IS BETTER IN LINE WITH NCEP PREFERRED               
00Z ECMWF ON HANDLING OF SHRTWV. WITH BETTER 280-295K ISENTROPIC                
LIFT/H85 QVECTOR CNVGC FCST OVER THE NE FA CLOSER TO SHRTWV                     
TRACK/DOWNWIND OF SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI...WENT WITH THE HIER                
POPS ACRS NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA COUNTIES.                                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD...NCEP INDICATED A PREFERENCE FOR THE 0Z              
ECMWF FCST...WHICH IS GENERALLY A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN RECENT              
GFS FCSTS. COLD AIR INFUSION IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV (00Z ECMWF SHOWS             
H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -17C BY 00Z FRI OVER WRN LK SUP)                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR PCPN CHCS ON WED WL BRING A SHOT OF LES WED NIGT                
INTO FRI AS GUSTY N WINDS/PSBL GALES ON LK SUP BTWN HI PRES OVER SE             
CAN AND LO PRES TO THE E DRAG THE COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. LES              
ADVYS/WRNGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT AT SOME POINT...WL               
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THE LES WL DIMINISH FRI/FRI NGT WITH              
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG...BUT WAD AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES               
EXPECTED TO MOVE E TOWARD THE UPR LKS WL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FA AS              
EARLY AS FRI NGT. WL CARRY CHC POPS FOR SOME -SN THRU THE DAY ON                
SAT...WITH THE HIER POPS ACRS THE NRN FA CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK                
FCST BY BULK OF GUIDANCE ACRS NRN LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO. THEN LO             
CHC POPS FOR SOME LES ON SUN WITH SOME CAD IN THE WAKE OF THE LO.               
TEMPS AOB NORMAL INTO FRI WL RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...EXPECT VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE             
EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERNIGHT...            
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE                 
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AS MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AND                
INVERSION LIFTS. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT              
WITH DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR MON MORNING AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE FURTHER ENHANCES -SHSN. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE                
LATER MON AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL                 
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS.                                                            
AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING VFR                   
CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EARLY MON MORNING...APPROACHING              
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR              
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AS MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AND INVERSION LIFTS.              
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH                  
DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR MID TO LATE MON MORNING. DOMINANT/INTENSE                 
SNOW BAND ON A CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING SW OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR              
SHOULD IMPACT KSAW AT SOME POINT MON AFTN (PROBABLY EARLY AFTN BASED            
ON LATEST GUIDANCE). LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS BAND.             
ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TO IFR EXPECTED AFTER THE BAND PASSES AS               
FAVORABLE UPSLOPING NRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL STAY NORTH TO NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY                
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT             
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. N             
GALES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT IN THE SHARP PRESSURE               
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND INCOMING              
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD           
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUE MIZ006-085.                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 5 AM EST MON MIZ007.                              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FROM 4 AM MON TO 1 AM EST TUE MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MON MIZ002-009.               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 AM EST MON MIZ014.                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS...JLA                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
100 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...LONG TERM AND AVIATION...                                       
.SYNOPSIS...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                        
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES               
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND EACH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF              
COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE                
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST                
LOWER MICHIGAN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1042 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                     
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                 
I DID A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO             
SHOW ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS              
OF TODAY. I DID THAT SINCE WE HAVE HAD... VIA COCORAHS... SPOTTERS              
AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS... REPORTS OF BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE               
AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY. SINCE THEN THE RADAR SNOW                    
ACCUMULATION ALGORITHM...WHICH WAS DEAD ON WITH THE PREVIOUS                    
REPORTS... SHOWS UP TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ALREADY NOW (1030 AM).               
THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW (WATER VAPOR AND IR) AND RADAR                  
MOSAIC LOOPS SUGGEST A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY THIS                    
MORNING. THE RUC AND GFS SHOW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES WILL             
BE THIS AFTERNOON. I COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FALLING. I WONDER            
OF THE RATE OF FALL WILL BE OFFSET BY THE AIR TEMPERATURE BEING JUST            
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS DURING THE DAY TIME...SO MOST OF THE SNOW              
WILL MELT AS IT FALLS (HOWEVER IT IS NOT DOING THAT AT OUR                      
OFFICE...LOOKS LIKE ABOUT .2 INCH HERE SO FAR). SO I WILL GO WITH               
ANOTHER INCH IN THE FORECAST.  IF IT KEEPS ACCUMULATING I WILL                  
UPDATED AGAIN.  CLEARLY THE 00Z NAM QPF WAS TO LIGHT FOR TODAY.                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE              
DEPARTING WAVE. AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -11C...LAKE DELTA T/S CLIMB INTO            
THE MID 20S. LAKE EFFECT WILL GET GOING WITH THE FAR SW CWA THE                 
FAVORED AREA. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ACCUMS               
SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK TO SOME DEGREE SINCE THE DGZ ISN/ ALL THAT              
DEEP BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.                                       
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. STRONG              
DPVA WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY SPIKE UP TO AROUND 10K FT                
MONDAY EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS WAVE IS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER            
WINDS ARE PROGD TO VEER TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS THE POINTS IN THE NW            
CWA AND FAR SW VAN BUREN COUNTY IN PLAY. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL                 
INCHES OF SNOW IF ONE MAIN LAKE BAND SETS UP. I/M NOT CONFIDENT                 
ENOUGH IN THIS SETUP TO ISSUE A WATCH THOUGH. BUT WE/LL KEEP AN EYE             
ON IT. THE ERN CWA PROBABLY WON/T SEE MUCH SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN                 
NORTH FLOW.                                                                     
SHSN SHOULD SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WINDS BACK            
TO THE WNW AS WARN AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE               
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE WANING AND ACCUMS ARE              
NOT EXPECTED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(100 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                       
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                      
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL BRING SOME            
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN                 
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE              
ENDING.                                                                         
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY WX FROM LATE FRIDAY              
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC                
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                          
WE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND                   
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP WAVES WELL ABOVE 4 FT INTO                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(100 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                        
WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS                 
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY            
EVENING WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE. PRIMARILY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS                
WILL OCCUR... BUT NUMEROUS REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY              
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VISBYS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO IN THE HEAVIER                
SNOW BANDS.                                                                     
WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AND VEER MORE TO THE NW. AS A                 
RESULT WE BELIEVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT WILL MAINLY            
AFFECT THE AREA NEAR AND PARTICULARLY WEST OF US-131. HOWEVER SNOW              
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON MONDAY AS            
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND NW WIND SPEEDS INCREASE... CARRYING THE SNOW            
BANDS WELL INLAND BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO LIMITED QPF.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM ST JOE TO MANISTEE THROUGH TUESDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   93 WDM                                                            
LONG TERM:    LAURENS                                                           
MARINE:       93                                                                
AVIATION:     LAURENS                                                           
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1042 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                        
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES               
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND EACH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF              
COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE                
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST                
LOWER MICHIGAN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1042 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                     
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                 
I DID A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO             
SHOW ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS              
OF TODAY. I DID THAT SINCE WE HAVE HAD... VIA COCORAHS... SPOTTERS              
AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS... REPORTS OF BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE               
AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY. SINCE THEN THE RADAR SNOW                    
ACCUMULATION ALGORITHM...WHICH WAS DEAD ON WITH THE PREVIOUS                    
REPORTS... SHOWS UP TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ALREADY NOW (1030 AM).               
THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW (WATER VAPOR AND IR) AND RADAR                  
MOSAIC LOOPS SUGGEST A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY THIS                    
MORNING. THE RUC AND GFS SHOW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES WILL             
BE THIS AFTERNOON. I COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FALLING. I WONDER            
OF THE RATE OF FALL WILL BE OFFSET BY THE AIR TEMPERATURE BEING JUST            
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS DURING THE DAY TIME...SO MOST OF THE SNOW              
WILL MELT AS IT FALLS (HOWEVER IT IS NOT DOING THAT AT OUR                      
OFFICE...LOOKS LIKE ABOUT .2 INCH HERE SO FAR). SO I WILL GO WITH               
ANOTHER INCH IN THE FORECAST.  IF IT KEEPS ACCUMULATING I WILL                  
UPDATED AGAIN.  CLEARLY THE 00Z NAM QPF WAS TO LIGHT FOR TODAY.                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE              
DEPARTING WAVE. AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -11C...LAKE DELTA T/S CLIMB INTO            
THE MID 20S. LAKE EFFECT WILL GET GOING WITH THE FAR SW CWA THE                 
FAVORED AREA. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ACCUMS               
SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK TO SOME DEGREE SINCE THE DGZ ISN/ ALL THAT              
DEEP BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.                                       
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. STRONG              
DPVA WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY SPIKE UP TO AROUND 10K FT                
MONDAY EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS WAVE IS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER            
WINDS ARE PROGD TO VEER TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS THE POINTS IN THE NW            
CWA AND FAR SW VAN BUREN COUNTY IN PLAY. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL                 
INCHES OF SNOW IF ONE MAIN LAKE BAND SETS UP. I/M NOT CONFIDENT                 
ENOUGH IN THIS SETUP TO ISSUE A WATCH THOUGH. BUT WE/LL KEEP AN EYE             
ON IT. THE ERN CWA PROBABLY WON/T SEE MUCH SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN                 
NORTH FLOW.                                                                     
SHSN SHOULD SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WINDS BACK            
TO THE WNW AS WARN AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE               
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE WANING AND ACCUMS ARE              
NOT EXPECTED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                       
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS SO              
THERE WAS NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS             
FORECAST. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHOT              
OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. SFC HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY WITH SNOW                   
SHOWERS ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND            
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                          
WE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND                   
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP WAVES WELL ABOVE 4 FT INTO                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(617 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME                   
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISBYS AND CEILINGS. CONDITIONS BECOME A                
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT FOR THE SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY             
BUT VISBYS LESS THAN 2 MILES SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE OUTSIDE OF MKG             
AND AZO.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(330 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO LIMITED QPF.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM ST JOE TO MANISTEE THROUGH TUESDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   93 WDM                                                            
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO                                                            
MARINE:       93                                                                
AVIATION:     OSTUNO                                                            
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1218 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 PM EST                                                 
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES IS OCCURRING OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS                  
EVENING. UPSTREAM 00Z KINL SOUNDING TELLS THE STORY. FROM 12Z TO                
00Z...INVERSION FELL FROM 750MB/7.8KFT MSL TO 880MB/3.7KFT MSL AND              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECAME WELL MIXED/DRIED OUT. TO THE E...LONGER               
FETCH INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WITH ASSISTANCE OF PRECONDITIONING FROM              
LAKE NIPIGON IS STILL YIELDING NUMEROUS SHSN. KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE             
SHOWS CLOUD TOPS TO AROUND 11KFT MSL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS QUITE A BIT            
OF SHEAR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NW NEAR THE SFC TO NE TOWARD CLOUD             
TOP. THUS...THE SHSN AREN`T WELL ORGANIZED INTO BANDS.                          
NONETHELESS...WITH OCCASIONAL REFLECTIVITIES IN EXCESS OF 28DBZ...              
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HIGH              
REFLECTIVITIES MAY JUST BE MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL              
AS A COUPLE OF SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE. UPSTREAM 00Z CWPL SOUNDING             
SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION BASED AT 850MB/4.6KFT MSL.                             
AS INVERSION LWRS PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER                
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADS OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT                
-SHSN TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED AND DIMINISH A BIT DURING            
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS OF THIS UNDERWAY            
IN THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS. LATER TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY              
HEADING SE INTO SRN MANITOBA WILL REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH             
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PASS MOSTLY SW OF THE FCST AREA...               
THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE LATE TONIGHT AND              
MORE SO SUN MORNING AS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING.                    
SO...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN -SHSN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT                
THRU SUN MORNING FROM W TO E. INHERITED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH                
THIS SCENARIO...BUT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICK IN INCREASING SHSN. SO...            
UPDATE WILL REFLECT A LITTLE DELAY IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF -SHSN              
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW                      
ACCUMULATIONS THRU 12Z SUN FOR THE GENERAL NW FLOW SNOWBELTS SHOULD             
BE MINIMAL...ONLY AN INCH OR TWO DUE TO LATE ARRIVAL OF MORE                    
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. LES SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED FROM NEAR KIWD TO              
ROCKLAND OVER THE W AND BTWN MARQUETTE/MUNISING OVER THE NCNTRL DUE             
TO LAND BREEZE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. QUICK CHECK OF                   
INCOMING 00Z NAM SUGGESTS ONGOING HEADLINES THRU MON ARE ON TRACK.              
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST                                               
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF FM HUDSON            
BAY S THRU THE GRT LKS INTO THE SE STATES SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OVER              
THE W AND ANOTHER IN THE WRN ATLANTIC. POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF             
THE BASE OF THE TROF IS INDUCING CYCLOGEN IN THE UPR OH VALLEY. THE             
UPR GRT LKS IS DOMINATED BY THE CHILLY NLY FLOW BTWN THIS DVLPG LO              
PRES AND SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS TO LK WINNIPEG DOWNSTREAM OF WRN             
RDG. THE PASSAGE OF COLDER AIR (12Z H85 TEMP AT YPL WAS -17C VS -8C             
AT GRB) ACRS LK SUP HAS RESULTED IN NMRS SHSN IN THE SN BELTS FVRD              
BY THE NNW FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN MQT/WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE              
12Z NAM/RECENT HIER RES MODELS SHOW SHARPER H925 CNVGC AND                      
MOISTENING FM LK NIPIGON APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SHSN INTENSITY.                
REPORT FM TRAUNIK IN WRN ALGER COUNTY INDICATED 2 INCHES OF SN AS OF            
1630Z. ALTHOUGH RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS AND STLT IMAGERY SUG SOME DEEPER            
MSTR IS PRESENT...OVERALL DNVA/DEEP QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WITHIN              
DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.            
12Z YPL SDNG SHOWED SHARP INVRN ARND H85...AND NNW FLOW ALF APPEARS             
TO BE ADVCTING DRIER MID LVL AIR FM THIS LOCATION S TOWARD THE FA.              
PLENTY OF SC NOTED UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO TO RDG AXIS NEAR LK WINNIPEG.            
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV OVER NRN ALBERTA IS TOPPING WRN              
RDG WITH H3 WIND MAX UP TO 140KT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND SUN)... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS PD ARE LES TRENDS/INTENSITY.                     
FOR TNGT...LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK MORE NW THRU MIDNGT AS DVLPG            
LO TO THE SE LIFTS INTO SE CAN. ALTHOUGH HGTS ARE FCST TO FALL                  
SLOWLY...MODEL FCST SDNGS IN GENERAL SHOW INVRN BASE ARND H85                   
STRENGTHING THRU 06Z WITH DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC ON THE NW              
FLANK OF THIS SYS ALSO HELPING TO REDUCE MID LVL MSTR. BACKING WINDS            
WL CAUSE EXISTING LES BANDS TO DRIFT ACCORDINGLY THRU THE NGT. AS               
SHRTWV FM ALBERTA SLIDES SE INTO MN LATE TNGT...SOME DPVA/QVECTOR               
CNVGC WL ARRIVE AND CAUSE LLVL WINDS TO VEER AGAIN A BIT...AT LEAST             
OVER LK SUP AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LK WITH LAND                
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO. EXPECT LOWER MIN TEMPS NEAR THE WI BORDER IN                
MORE BACKED LLVL FLOW THIS EVNG WITH LESS LK MODERATION IN THAT                 
AREA. THE ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC AT EDGE OF DVLPG LAND BREEZE WL                   
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AND LES INTENSITY IN ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC AND ALGER             
COUNTIES.                                                                       
SHRTWV/BETTER DPVA WL SLIDE SE TO THE S OF UPR MI TMRW...SO THERE WL            
BE LIMITED DYNAMIC BOOST FOR THE ONGOING LES. SO PCPN CHCS WL BE                
PRIMARILY RELATED TO LES. 12Z NAM/RUC13/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SHOW                 
PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO WL GO            
WITH A HIER POP. IN FACT...NAM FCST SDNG FOR THE P53 AREA SHOWS                 
INVRN BASE LIFTING TO H75 WITH MORE FVRBL OMEGA IN DENDRITIC SN                 
GROWTH ZN IN PRESENCE OF SLOWLY FALLING H85 TEMPS PUSHING LK                    
WATER-H85 DELTA T ARND 17C. CONSIDERING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG HI            
RES MODELS AND QPF FM THIS GUIDANCE/FVRBL DENDRITIC SN GROWTH/HI                
SNOW/WATER RATIO...DECIDED TO POST LES WRNG FOR ALGER/NRN                       
SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS FOR LATE TNGT THRU THE DAY ON SUN. WENT WITH ADVY               
FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT CONSIDERING LOWER ADVY THRESHOLD FOR THAT AREA.             
NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MSTR MOVING INTO THE WRN ZNS AS WELL DURING               
THE MRNG ON NRN FLANK OF SHRTWV STREAKING TO THE S...WITH FVRBL LLVL            
CNVGC PROFILE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE OMEGA PROFILE             
RELATIVE TO THE DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN IS NOT AS FVRBL. SINCE THE               
DURATION OF DEEPER MSTR IS ONLY ABOUT 6 HRS...WL NOT POST ADVY FOR              
THIS AREA ATTM. ETA/GFS MOS FCST HI TEMPS ON MON ARE SIMILAR AND                
SEEM RSNBL.                                                                     
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
FOR THE MOST PART...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA TO              
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NE CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS             
WEEK AS LARGE RIDGE PERSISTS FM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO SW CANADA.               
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE TROUGH INTERRUPT THE GENERAL               
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...BUT BASICALLY THE PATTERN CONTINUES              
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND...THE WESTERN RIDGE IS SHUNTED EAST AS             
STRONGER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO WRN CONUS. RESULT WOULD BE A               
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND LK EFFECT COMING TO             
AN END. HOWEVER...GIVEN SIZABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY MODELS HANDLE            
THE PATTERN BEYOND DAY 6 AND NOISY OUTPUT IN THE H5 SPAGHETTI CHARTS            
FM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS THERE IS BLO                  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVE LK EFFECT REGIME CONTINUES.                    
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO AROUND -15C WEST            
AND -12C IN THE EAST BY 12Z MONDAY...RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES            
500-800J/KG...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. A DIFFERENCE FM GUIDANCE FM 24                
HR AGO IS LESS DEEP MOISTURE ON MONDAY MORNING...SO ENHANCEMENT                 
FACTOR IS NOT QUITE AS EVIDENT. THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS VERY                    
FAVORABLE THOUGH AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUD LAYER IS WITHIN THE BEST                  
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE OF TEMPS FM -12C TO -18C. SO...EVEN                  
WITHOUT THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...SIGNIFICANT LK EFFECT SNOW LOOKS                 
LIKELY. THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL HEAVIER CONVERGENCE SNOW SHOWERS             
DEVELOP. MAIN AREA THAT PREFERRED ECMWF AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION               
MODELS...NAM/RUC13/LOCAL WRF/REGIONAL CANADIAN...INDICATE FOR                   
MAXIMIM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OVR MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO WRN ALGER            
COUNTY AND TO SOME EXTENT ALSO OVR FAR WRN CWA NEAR IWD. WITH THE               
NNW FLOW...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM LAKE NIPEGON COULD ALSO INTENSIFY             
THE CONVERGENCE SNOW BAND...AS OCCURS ON SUNDAY. TIME FRAME FOR THE             
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY                
WHEN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH NRN UPR MI.                                          
DECIDED TO PUT UP A WATCH FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS THERE ARE EMERGING            
SIGNALS THAT THIS CONVERGENCE BAND WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY               
NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO AN ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED SNOW              
BAND COULD LEAD TO A LOT OF SNOW. ALSO...ALTHOUGH IT HAS POTENTIAL              
TO BE CONFUSING...THINK AN ADDITIONAL WATCH FOR ALGER SUNDAY NIGHT              
INTO MONDAY IS WARRENTED AS WELL. WOULD LIKE MODELS COME INTO LINE              
WITH MORE OF A 360 FLOW FOR FAR WRN UPR MI INSTEAD OF A 330 FLOW                
BEFORE RUNNING WITH A WATCH THERE. EVEN SO...IF CONVERGENCE AREA CAN            
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN FOR ANY APPRECIABLE DURATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO             
MONDAY OVR GOGEBIC COUNTY...LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF            
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE LOWER                 
LEVELS OVR WRN UPR MI. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE                 
MONDAY IN THE WEST BUT LIKELY WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES INTO MONDAY              
NIGHT IN THE NCNTRL CWA.                                                        
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE               
STILL ON TRACK BUT NOW ARRIVES QUICKER. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE                  
SIMILAR H85-H7 MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS AND                    
RESULTING QPF SLIDING INTO FAR WRN CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS             
REST OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW SETTLES OVR NRN LK HURON BY 00Z              
THURSDAY. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW AND               
UPR TROUGH THAN ECWMF. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR NRN               
UPR MI ALONG TRACK OF UPR WAVE. LK EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT OFF LK                    
MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH SW LOW LEVEL                  
WINDS AND H85 TEMPS BLO -10C. SINCE GREATEST H95 CONVERGENCE IS                 
MAXIMIZED FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME (00Z-06Z ON WEDNESDAY) AND SNOW FM              
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK               
MICHIGAN (GULLIVER TO NEWBERRY) COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NO               
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED. REINFORCING COLD FRONT DRIVES               
INTO CWA LATE WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.             
EVENTUALLY LK EFFECT WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS H85/H7 TEMPS               
FALL TO -15C/-22C AND DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS IN WAKE             
OF THE CLIPPER LOW. N/NW WIND SNOWBELTS FAVORED FOR THE MOST SNOW               
ACCUMULATION.                                                                   
HIGH POPS FOR LK EFFECT SNOWS REMAIN IN FCST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.              
ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LES DURING THIS                
TIME...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FM THE PLAINS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL            
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BENEATH THE LK EFFECT                  
INVERSION. SO...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNSWING BY NEXT                 
FRIDAY AND PROBABLY COMPLETELY END BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE                  
UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED EARLIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...PREFERRED HPC IDEA             
OF SLOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND AS A RESULT KEPT            
THE SATURDAY FCST DRY AS SFC RIDGE FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD UNDER               
CHILLY NW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME -SHSN FROM TIME TO TIME             
DURING THE NIGHT...CONDITIONS AREN`T FAVORABLE FOR ANY PERIODS                  
OF PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHSN TO REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. WITH CONTINUED                
GRADUAL CAA AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SUNDAY WITH UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF PREVAILING MVFR VIS IN            
-SHSN AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.                
WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR VIS AND PERHAPS IFR            
VIS AS WELL...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT ANY TIME                
PERIODS FOR THOSE OCCURRENCES.                                                  
AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CIGS PREVAILING              
DURING THE NIGHT. VFR CIGS SHOULD THEN GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND                
SOME FLURRIES (VFR VIS) DURING THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL IN THE              
AFTN AND EVENING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO EXIT THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND HEAD INTO            
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. N WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH                        
CONSIDERABLE OVERWATER INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AND BACK NW LATER              
TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO             
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
MONDAY MORNING...DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG                   
TUESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON                      
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE WINNIPEG             
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT N GALES ON WED INTO THU              
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SHARP PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE                
CENTER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SUN EVENING THRU MON EVENING MIZ005-006.               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SUN MIZ006-085.                     
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SUN MIZ014.                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS...KC                                                                   
SHORT TERM...KC                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
557 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008/                                             
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SIGNS OF ABUNDANT CU/SC IN               
COLD UNSTABLE AIR DISSIPATING.   WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF              
SCATTERED FLURYS NE AREAS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS             
CWA WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEARING             
SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.  AFTER A COLD START WARM ADVECTION               
AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM                 
LEVELS OF TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY AREAS TO OUR NORTH            
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT SEVERAL ISENTROPIC                    
SURFACES AIRMASS LOOKS PRETTY DRY EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW LAYER NEAR                 
SURFACE.  TRIMMED BACK THE AREA OF -SW A BIT AND ADDED THREAT OF                
PATCHY -ZL...THIS SHOULD AFFECT ONLY SMALL PART OF EC MN INTO WI.               
LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO STRONG FOR FOG...SO REMOVED FOG THREAT                
FROM SW MN.                                                                     
SORT OF A PUSH-PULL PATTERN IN TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT FOR THE NEXT              
WEEK OR SO WITH GENERALLY NWLY FLOW INTERRUPTED BY A COUPLE OF LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPPING OUT OF NW CANADA ACROSS N MN OR NW                    
ONTARIO.  WILL SEE A BIT OF A WARMUP TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY AND                
THEN AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DOESN`T SUPPORT MUCH            
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN -SW AS SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
COME THRU.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SC SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING FOR THE MN TAF SITES. STILL A                
HEALTHY AREA OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES STREAMING INTO NWRN WISC SO                 
WILL HOLD ON TO BKN CLOUDS IN THE 4K-5K RANGE INTO THE LATE                     
EVENING... ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS BUT VSBYS ABOVE 6SM. RUC                     
STREAMLINES IN THE LOW LEVELS STILL SHOW A BIT OF CYCLONIC                      
CURVATURE THIS EVENING. WITH NEXT WAVE... HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS              
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT IN WRN MN AND REST OF                
AREA TOMORROW...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
744 AM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MUCH OF NE MN ZONES/GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS               
TO LIKELY CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO ADDED 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS                
DUE TO RATHER ROBUST BANDS OF SNOW ORIENTED IN THE NW FLOW...AND                
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING VORT MAX. A FEW PLACES SAW ABOUT AN INCH OF               
SNOW OVERNIGHT. TRAINING OF THESE BANDS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE              
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH 5 INCHES AT LAST CHECK IN GILE. THE                
BEST FORCING WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...INTO THE AFTERNOON.              
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE 7 TO 11                
INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION...AND IF A SINGULAR FOCUSED BAND DOES              
DEVELOP OFF THE TIP OF THE PENINSULA...A LOCALIZED LOCATION COULD               
SEE A FOOT OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT WE NEED               
TO INCREASE AMOUNTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTH SHORE.                                                 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EARLY              
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK WAVE NOT HANDLED WELL BY                     
OPERATIONAL MODELS. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAD DROPPED VSBYS TO               
AROUND 2 MILES. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW HAD DEVELOPED                
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH KDLH 88D SHOWING TOPS AROUND 10K FT. THE                
SNOW BANDS DID TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOW               
LEVEL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION/SUBSIDENCE FOR A TIME.                        
THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL LOOKING IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR              
LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX                     
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THE RUC HAS THE VORT MAX                 
ROTATING THROUGH NE MN AND INTO NW WI DURING THE DAY...BRINGING                 
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FIRMLY ESTABLISHING LAKE SNOW               
BANDS. THIS SETUP IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                    
DOMINANT BAND FOCUSING OFF THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA...                 
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SQUALLS WITH RATES OF AN INCH AN                
HOUR OR SO AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DELTA-T VALUES AND LITTLE SHEAR SHOULD ALL                  
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT. WILL LIKELY              
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE.                            
FURTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS A                  
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. WHILE CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL             
FOR A STANDING WAVE/GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND IN DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD               
COUNTY...THEY TEND TO DO BEST WHEN THERE HAS BEEN BACKING WINDS                 
FROM THE NE TO NW AFTER A DEPARTING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.              
DESPITE THIS...THINK SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO                  
ENHANCED UVM FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT FETCH SNOW              
BANDS DUE TO FAVORABLE LAKE-H85 DELTA-T VALUES EVEN IF THE GRAVITY              
WAVE FEATURE DOES NOT DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.               
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SOME                     
LIGHTER ACCUMULATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. THE REST                
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THIS              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                  
MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING THROUGH THE                
CWA. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH STRONG WAA                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN                
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW...                       
ESPECIALLY NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.                                              
WED THRU FRIDAY...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES FAST WNW MID                         
LVL FLOW WITH 50H HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE               
85H TEMP ANOMALIES BEGIN TO MODIFY...TWO CONSECUTIVE LARGE SFC HIGHS            
WILL MAINTAIN CHILLY READINGS THROUGH PERIOD. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE              
WX...INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE COMING OVER               
RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER WE GET JUST CLOUDS             
OR PRECIP AS WELL. WILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT WITH THIS AS DESPITE LOW            
POPS OVER SRN CWA...MDL SNDGS SUGGEST SUPERCOOLED WATER AS MAIN                 
HYDROMETEOR. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING SOME FR RAIN MAY DEVELOP             
NEAR BRD LAKES REGION AND EAST TO PINE COUNTY.  OVER NRN CWA WHERE              
ENOUGH ASCENT OCCURS FOR SATURATION...SHOULD SEE SNOW..POSSIBLY SOME            
SLEET ON SRN FRINGE OF PRECIP AREA. SECONDARY SURGE OF POLAR AIR                
ADVECTS SOUTH WED WITH SNSH INCREASING OVER NRN CWA AND IN LES OF               
WISC...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...TAPERING THURSDAY. MDLS DIVERGE                   
SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY WITH GFS OUT OF SORTS WITH ITS ENSEMBLE                 
MEMBERS AND EC FLIP FLOPPING FROM LAST RUN. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.             
AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA                    
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPO SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL                         
INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS TO THE MVFR RANGE.                   
OTW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE               
WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE PASSAGE MON MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT               
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PD...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...AS HIGH                
PRES BUILDS IN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  26   8  28  19 /  60  10  10  20                                           
INL  24   2  26  18 /  60  10  10  30                                           
BRD  27  10  31  23 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  26   7  28  18 /  40  10  10  10                                           
ASX  26   9  29  20 /  60  20  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ASHLAND-IRON.                                                              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS.                                                          
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146.             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-                
     LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                             
$$                                                                              
DAP/CANNON                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
405 AM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTH SHORE.                                                 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EARLY              
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK WAVE NOT HANDLED WELL BY                     
OPERATIONAL MODELS. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAD DROPPED VSBYS TO               
AROUND 2 MILES. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW HAD DEVELOPED                
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH KDLH 88D SHOWING TOPS AROUND 10K FT. THE                
SNOW BANDS DID TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOW               
LEVEL DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION/SUBSIDENCE FOR A TIME.                        
THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL LOOKING IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR              
LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX                     
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THE RUC HAS THE VORT MAX                 
ROTATING THROUGH NE MN AND INTO NW WI DURING THE DAY...BRINGING                 
ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FIRMLY ESTABLISHING LAKE SNOW               
BANDS. THIS SETUP IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                    
DOMINANT BAND FOCUSING OFF THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA...                 
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SQUALLS WITH RATES OF AN INCH AN                
HOUR OR SO AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DELTA-T VALUES AND LITTLE SHEAR SHOULD ALL                  
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT. WILL LIKELY              
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE.                            
FURTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS A                  
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. WHILE CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL             
FOR A STANDING WAVE/GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND IN DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD               
COUNTY...THEY TEND TO DO BEST WHEN THERE HAS BEEN BACKING WINDS                 
FROM THE NE TO NW AFTER A DEPARTING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.              
DESPITE THIS...THINK SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO                  
ENHANCED UVM FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT FETCH SNOW              
BANDS DUE TO FAVORABLE LAKE-H85 DELTA-T VALUES EVEN IF THE GRAVITY              
WAVE FEATURE DOES NOT DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.               
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SOME                     
LIGHTER ACCUMULATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. THE REST                
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THIS              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                  
MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING THROUGH THE                
CWA. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH STRONG WAA                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN                
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW...                       
ESPECIALLY NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.                                              
WED THRU FRIDAY...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES FAST WNW MID                         
LVL FLOW WITH 50H HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE               
85H TEMP ANOMALIES BEGIN TO MODIFY...TWO CONSECUTIVE LARGE SFC HIGHS            
WILL MAINTAIN CHILLY READINGS THROUGH PERIOD. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE              
WX...INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE COMING OVER               
RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER WE GET JUST CLOUDS             
OR PRECIP AS WELL. WILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT WITH THIS AS DESPITE LOW            
POPS OVER SRN CWA...MDL SNDGS SUGGEST SUPERCOOLED WATER AS MAIN                 
HYDROMETEOR. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING SOME FR RAIN MAY DEVELOP             
NEAR BRD LAKES REGION AND EAST TO PINE COUNTY.  OVER NRN CWA WHERE              
ENOUGH ASCENT OCCURS FOR SATURATION...SHOULD SEE SNOW..POSSIBLY SOME            
SLEET ON SRN FRINGE OF PRECIP AREA. SECONDARY SURGE OF POLAR AIR                
ADVECTS SOUTH WED WITH SNSH INCREASING OVER NRN CWA AND IN LES OF               
WISC...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...TAPERING THURSDAY. MDLS DIVERGE                   
SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY WITH GFS OUT OF SORTS WITH ITS ENSEMBLE                 
MEMBERS AND EC FLIP FLOPPING FROM LAST RUN. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA                   
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPO SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL                         
INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS TO THE MVFR RANGE.                   
OTW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE               
WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE PASSAGE MON MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT               
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PD...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...AS HIGH                
PRES BUILDS IN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  26   8  28  19 /  40  10  10  20                                           
INL  24   2  26  18 /  40  10  10  30                                           
BRD  27  10  31  23 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  26   7  28  18 /  40  10  10  10                                           
ASX  26   9  29  20 /  60  20  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ASHLAND-IRON.                                                              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS.                                                          
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146.             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-                
     LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                             
$$                                                                              
DAP/CANNON                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
205 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERALL... THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CLOUD COVER               
CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED                    
FLURRIES... AND THE CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER                     
ACTIVITY MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THE               
12Z NAM AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THINGS              
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME                  
MORE PRONOUNCED BY THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. UTILIZED A BLEND OF                  
THEIR GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY... THEN TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE SREF              
AND ECMWF BY THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND                     
FORCING WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVES THROUGH                
THE AREA.                                                                       
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA                 
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER              
AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVE... WHICH DOESN/T HAPPEN IN                     
EARNEST UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FROM WEST TO EAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER               
LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW... THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF                 
FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN                      
UPSTREAM OBS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS... WILL               
RETAIN A MENTION OF SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRIES               
OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OR SO OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. BY                 
LATE TONIGHT... AND MORE-SO MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...              
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FORCING AS THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE                   
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA SWINGS THROUGH                    
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH                  
SUGGEST SOME MODEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THIS                    
FEATURE... WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING 925-700MB                   
MOISTURE TO ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME OVER WEST CENTRAL               
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF               
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE OVERALL PAUCITY OF MOISTURE AND THE QUICK               
MOVING NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE... BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW                     
SHOWERS TO BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THAT AREA FOR A PORTION OF               
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO                   
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER                
WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM                      
ADVECTION ACTUALLY INCREASES EVEN EARLIER IN THE 700-500MB                      
LAYER... DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CWFA BY 12Z. VIGOROUS WARM                 
ADVECTION IS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM... GFS... AND SREF... BUT ALL                
OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE OUT                
OF PHASE... WITH VERY LITTLE ALIGNMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL                         
LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THE MID-LEVEL ACTIVITY... SUGGESTING WE WILL                 
PRIMARILY JUST SEE IN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS... FOLLOWED BY                
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY                   
NIGHT. A LOOK AT THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES SUPPORTS THIS AS                    
WELL... SHOWING VERY LITTLE ALIGNMENT OF THE LOWER CONDENSATION                 
PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ON THE TWO SURFACES. IN ADDITION... A LOOK              
AT THE NET ADIABATIC ISENTROPIC OMEGA PROGS SUGGESTS THAT THE                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... WHICH IS VIGOROUS GIVEN THE TIGHTLY PACKED                
PRESSURE SURFACES AND DECENT WINDS... IS OFFSET TO LARGE DEGREE BY              
THE DESCENT OF THE PRESSURE SURFACES THEMSELVES... WHICH OCCURS                 
QUITE QUICKLY. THE NET RESULT IS FAIRLY WEAK NET ADIABATIC                      
ISENTROPIC OMEGA VALUES OF 1-2 MICROBARS/SECOND AS THIS FEATURE                 
SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ALIGN SOMEWHAT                
BETTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... KEEPING CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PCPN               
OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN                         
TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT INCREASE IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY... PW                   
RISING FROM AROUND .15 INCHES TO .5 INCHES / 40 PCT OR NORMAL TO                
150 PCT OF NORMAL... CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING MAKING IT                
TO THE GROUND IN OUR AREA. THE WET BULB PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT AN               
ENTIRELY SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING AS THINGS MOVE THROUGH... SO WILL                
INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE                    
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND NEAR                 
LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE QG FORCING IS SUGGESTED                   
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... WITH ALL OF THE ACTION ASSOCIATED                   
WITH THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND              
SOME MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL                
BE TO OUR NORTH. SO... WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.                   
THE EXTENDED PERIOD... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LOOKS ABOUT AS                
QUIET AS ONE COULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 00Z ECMWF AND              
GFS AREN/T IN HORRIBLE DISAGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE FEATURES... BUT              
THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND POSITION              
OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES.                   
GENERALLY PREFERRED THE ECMWF SOLUTION... WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE             
00Z CANADIAN... AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH HPC MANUAL PROGS. THIS                 
SUPPORTS SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH                   
AMERICAN THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH PRONOUNCED TROUGHS OFF THE WEST             
COAST AND OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS ON THURSDAY GIVING WAY            
TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER BY SUNDAY...              
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS PUSHED BACK TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA              
AND NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE HPC TIMING OF SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS/FRONTS            
MATCHES UP QUITE WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN                
MODELS... AND GENERALLY TIED WEATHER TO THOSE FEATURES AND THEIR                
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THIS EQUATES TO A DRY FORECAST OVER               
THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD... WITH NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM                 
NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. READINGS MAY BE A BIT COOLER              
THAN NORMAL IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME... BUT COULD MODERATE AND BE A            
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL SAT-SUN.                                                 
THERE ARE TWO  POTENTIAL FEATURES OF INTEREST WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY            
INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO THE FORECAST... BUT NEITHER                 
LOOKS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LOW                 
POSITION IS PROGGED SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO KEEP ANY SATURATION...                
ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING... NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY LATE                     
SUNDAY... A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST               
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS             
SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY BRING SOME PCPN CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN               
CWFA... BUT THE CURRENT TIMING WOULDN/T DO SO UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR             
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR WATERLOO LATE THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
TRAILING NORTHWEST ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW               
LINGER FROM LITTLE FALLS AND MORA TO RED WING AND EAU CLAIRE. THIS              
LINES UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE RUC/NAM BOTH                
SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BANDS                    
DISSOLVING. CEILINGS CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT AT KRNH AND KRWF WITH                 
SCATTERED HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE FA. QUITE A CHALLENGE              
WITH CEILINGS BUT EXPECT BKN-OVC MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS.                  
INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW MVFR (010-015) CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD               
IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.                
LOWERED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND. A              
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF BKN-OVC            
MVFR CEILINGS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN               
MN AS THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS GET CLOSER.                                          
INCLUDED FROM CWSU ZMP...                                                       
INTERESTING SETUP GOING ON WITH TWO BANDS NW-SE ORIENTED NEARBY.                
BOTH CONTAIN IFR CONDITIONS ONE TO OUR EAST IS BARELY EAST OF US AND            
THE OTHER IW SOME 80 NM WEST OF US. GENERAL FLOW IS OUT OF THE NW               
AND SOMETIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HIT MSP INTO THIS AFTN. THE ONE            
TO THE EAST OF US HAS SOME SNOW FALLING IN IT AND THIS ONE HAS                  
CAUSED SOME SNOWFALL AT MSP FOR THE LAST HOUR.                                  
ON THE OTHERHAND WITH TIME WIND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SOON OUT OF             
THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY. LATELY IT HAS BEEN              
NE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY. BEST WAY TO GET TO THE NW IS THRU THE                
NORTH DIRECTION AND IT SHUD TAKE PLACE SHORTLY. WITH THE WIND CHANGE            
THE MVFR CIGS SHUD BE CLOSE ENUF TO MSP TO GIVE THAT POSSIBILITY                
INTO THIS AFTN ALONG WITH SOME PSBL LGT SNOW. OVERALL THE WX SHUD               
SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH CIGS AND VIS INTO THE NITE AND MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/RAH/HP                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1144 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR WATERLOO LATE THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
TRAILING NORTHWEST ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW               
LINGER FROM LITTLE FALLS AND MORA TO RED WING AND EAU CLAIRE. THIS              
LINES UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE RUC/NAM BOTH                
SHOW DIMINISHING FRONTOGENESIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BANDS                    
DISSOLVING. CEILINGS CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT AT KRNH AND KRWF WITH                 
SCATTERED HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE FA. QUITE A CHALLENGE              
WITH CEILINGS BUT EXPECT BKN-OVC MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS.                  
INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW MVFR (010-015) CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD               
IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.                
LOWERED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND. A              
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF BKN-OVC            
MVFR CEILINGS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN               
MN AS THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS GET CLOSER.                                          
INCLUDED FROM CWSU ZMP...                                                       
INTERESTING SETUP GOING ON WITH TWO BANDS NW-SE ORIENTED NEARBY.                
BOTH CONTAIN IFR CONDITIONS ONE TO OUR EAST IS BARELY EAST OF US AND            
THE OTHER IW SOME 80 NM WEST OF US. GENERAL FLOW IS OUT OF THE NW               
AND SOMETIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HIT MSP INTO THIS AFTN. THE ONE            
TO THE EAST OF US HAS SOME SNOW FALLING IN IT AND THIS ONE HAS                  
CAUSED SOME SNOWFALL AT MSP FOR THE LAST HOUR.                                  
ON THE OTHERHAND WITH TIME WIND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SOON OUT OF             
THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY. LATELY IT HAS BEEN              
NE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY. BEST WAY TO GET TO THE NW IS THRU THE                
NORTH DIRECTION AND IT SHUD TAKE PLACE SHORTLY. WITH THE WIND CHANGE            
THE MVFR CIGS SHUD BE CLOSE ENUF TO MSP TO GIVE THAT POSSIBILITY                
INTO THIS AFTN ALONG WITH SOME PSBL LGT SNOW. OVERALL THE WX SHUD               
SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH CIGS AND VIS INTO THE NITE AND MONDAY.                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW ESTABLISHED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH            
HAS BEEN PARKED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NOW MAKING SOME EASTWARD               
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON             
BAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD               
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WORK                
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK AS WELL. THE UPPER FLOW WILL                
FLATTEN OVERHEAD BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND TRY TO TRANSITION TO              
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF              
SHORTWAVES APPEARS IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WILL            
APPROACH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE                
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR SPILLS IN              
BEHIND EACH TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN AHEAD.                         
ALBERTA CLIPPER IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING.                
OCCLUDING SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT 09Z WITH WARM               
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK             
SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO                 
LITCHFIELD AND ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LITCHFIELD TO RED WING             
AND POINTS EAST. BANDS OF SNOW ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CYCLONIC               
VORTICITY ADVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF FAIRLY CHANNELED VORT CENTER.            
RUC 285K ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS MOIST ASCENT AND SATURATION LINING UP             
WELL WITH BANDS AS WELL. PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE                
BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT PASSES BY. A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR 2 OF ACCUMULATION IS                  
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED NARROW BANDS OF A HALF INCH UNDER                
THE HEAVIER BANDS. TRIMMED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT IN THE AREAS                     
SEEING SNOW THIS MORNING AFTER 18Z WITH HEIGHT RISES QUICKLY                    
TAKING OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT OF QG FORCING TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH                   
ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIOD OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WILL KEEP                   
FLURRIES IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN               
CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING ABUNDANT ABOVE THE SFC.                     
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS START              
TO FALL IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCORPORATED                  
THIS TREND INTO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE                      
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.                                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL DROP DOWN IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BUT               
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST SO              
THIS WAVE SHOULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT ONE.                       
NONETHELESS IT WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO                 
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THERE MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT              
LATER MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WE HAVE SEEN SOME                       
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SPEED OF THE HIGH BUT FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE            
WITH IT BEING SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY                 
MORNING SUPPORTING VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF        
WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH THE HIGHS MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME IS             
NOW FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN FACT IT REMAINS FASTER WITH THE PATTERN             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GETS              
UNDERWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON SPEED              
AND TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER                  
PERFORMANCE WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CLIPPERS THUS FAR SO                
WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. STRONGEST MID LEVEL WAA AND                      
CORRESPONDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.             
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO WILL KEEP POP                
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY RESULT WITH            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC             
GROWTH ZONE. ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN SO WILL                
HAVE TO WATCH SFC TEMPS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WARMEST                 
READINGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY                 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE             
QUICKLY ARRIVES THURSDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
556 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 319 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008/                               
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW ESTABLISHED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH            
HAS BEEN PARKED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NOW MAKING SOME EASTWARD               
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON             
BAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD               
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WORK                
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK AS WELL. THE UPPER FLOW WILL                
FLATTEN OVERHEAD BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND TRY TO TRANSITION TO              
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF              
SHORTWAVES APPEARS IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WILL            
APPROACH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE                
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR SPILLS IN              
BEHIND EACH TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN AHEAD.                         
ALBERTA CLIPPER IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING.                
OCCLUDING SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT 09Z WITH WARM               
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK             
SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO                 
LITCHFIELD AND ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LITCHFIELD TO RED WING             
AND POINTS EAST. BANDS OF SNOW ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CYCLONIC               
VORTICITY ADVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF FAIRLY CHANNELED VORT CENTER.            
RUC 285K ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS MOIST ASCENT AND SATURATION LINING UP             
WELL WITH BANDS AS WELL. PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE                
BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT PASSES BY. A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR 2 OF ACCUMULATION IS                  
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED NARROW BANDS OF A HALF INCH UNDER                
THE HEAVIER BANDS. TRIMMED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT IN THE AREAS                     
SEEING SNOW THIS MORNING AFTER 18Z WITH HEIGHT RISES QUICKLY                    
TAKING OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT OF QG FORCING TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH                   
ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIOD OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WILL KEEP                   
FLURRIES IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN               
CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING ABUNDANT ABOVE THE SFC.                     
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS START              
TO FALL IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCORPORATED                  
THIS TREND INTO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE                      
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.                                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL DROP DOWN IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BUT               
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST SO              
THIS WAVE SHOULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT ONE.                       
NONETHELESS IT WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO                 
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THERE MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT              
LATER MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WE HAVE SEEN SOME                       
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SPEED OF THE HIGH BUT FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE            
WITH IT BEING SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY                 
MORNING SUPPORTING VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF        
WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH THE HIGHS MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME IS             
NOW FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN FACT IT REMAINS FASTER WITH THE PATTERN             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GETS              
UNDERWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON SPEED              
AND TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER                  
PERFORMANCE WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CLIPPERS THUS FAR SO                
WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. STRONGEST MID LEVEL WAA AND                      
CORRESPONDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.             
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO WILL KEEP POP                
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY RESULT WITH            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC             
GROWTH ZONE. ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN SO WILL                
HAVE TO WATCH SFC TEMPS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WARMEST                 
READINGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY                 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE             
QUICKLY ARRIVES THURSDAY.    ..MDB..                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT CENTRAL MN AND WEST                     
CENTRAL WI TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...AS                       
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD TROUGH                     
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY CHANNELS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE                        
ASSOCIATED CIGS HAVE BEEN OF THE VFR VARIETY                                    
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATED SCT-BKN CLOUDS CIRCA 2K-3K FEET /CURRENTLY              
NOTED OVER NRN MN/ TO BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL              
TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THIS               
MORNING CONCURRENT WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K                    
SURFACE...BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CYCLONIC               
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED VSBY/S SHOULD BE                  
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW BANDS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HIGH-END                  
MVFR VSBY/S PRIOR TO 18Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH                   
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST SCATTERING OUT NOT EXPECTED                 
TO OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MDB                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
319 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW ESTABLISHED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH            
HAS BEEN PARKED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NOW MAKING SOME EASTWARD               
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD             
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON             
BAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD               
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WORK                
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK AS WELL. THE UPPER FLOW WILL                
FLATTEN OVERHEAD BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND TRY TO TRANSITION TO              
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF              
SHORTWAVES APPEARS IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WILL            
APPROACH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE                
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR SPILLS IN              
BEHIND EACH TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN AHEAD.                         
ALBERTA CLIPPER IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING.                
OCCLUDING SFC LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT 09Z WITH WARM               
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK             
SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO                 
LITCHFIELD AND ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LITCHFIELD TO RED WING             
AND POINTS EAST. BANDS OF SNOW ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CYCLONIC               
VORTICITY ADVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF FAIRLY CHANNELED VORT CENTER.            
RUC 285K ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS MOIST ASCENT AND SATURATION LINING UP             
WELL WITH BANDS AS WELL. PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE                
BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT PASSES BY. A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR 2 OF ACCUMULATION IS                  
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED NARROW BANDS OF A HALF INCH UNDER                
THE HEAVIER BANDS. TRIMMED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT IN THE AREAS                     
SEEING SNOW THIS MORNING AFTER 18Z WITH HEIGHT RISES QUICKLY                    
TAKING OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT OF QG FORCING TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH                   
ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIOD OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WILL KEEP                   
FLURRIES IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN               
CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING ABUNDANT ABOVE THE SFC.                     
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS START              
TO FALL IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCORPORATED                  
THIS TREND INTO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE                      
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.                                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL DROP DOWN IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BUT               
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST SO              
THIS WAVE SHOULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT ONE.                       
NONETHELESS IT WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO                 
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THERE MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT              
LATER MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WE HAVE SEEN SOME                       
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SPEED OF THE HIGH BUT FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE            
WITH IT BEING SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY                 
MORNING SUPPORTING VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF        
WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH THE HIGHS MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME IS             
NOW FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN FACT IT REMAINS FASTER WITH THE PATTERN             
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GETS              
UNDERWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON SPEED              
AND TRACK OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER                  
PERFORMANCE WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CLIPPERS THUS FAR SO                
WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. STRONGEST MID LEVEL WAA AND                      
CORRESPONDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.             
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SO WILL KEEP POP                
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY RESULT WITH            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC             
GROWTH ZONE. ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN SO WILL                
HAVE TO WATCH SFC TEMPS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WARMEST                 
READINGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY                 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE             
QUICKLY ARRIVES THURSDAY.    ..MDB..                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE                    
ACROSS MAINLY EAST CENTRAL MN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. SCT                 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR VFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO               
MVFR CEILINGS KAXN...KMSP...KRNH...KEAU DURING THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME              
PERIOD. VSBYS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1 1/2SM -SN VCNTY KMSP..KRNH FROM 11Z-      
14Z. VSBYS CLOSER TO 2-3SM -SN VCNTY KSTC KEAU. SFC LOW PRES WILL               
BE MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE 12Z- 18Z                 
TIME PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA                   
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS                
WELL BUT WITH VSBYS MAINLY P6SM.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDB/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA       
AS WINDS HAVE RELAXED FROM YESTERDAY AND SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS                
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS ALLOWED FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST                
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN JUST OVER TWO WEEKS. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE               
CENTER OF 1031MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS             
COAST AND BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS FILTERED IN THE COOLER             
AND DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.                                    
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE              
MUCH MORE RELAXED THAN YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE BELOW NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT MID AUTUMN DAY AND THE CURRENT   
FORECAST INDICATES THIS. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO            
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPS RUNNING ON TRACK                
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE           
SLIGHT CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING TEMPS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...THESE                
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO           
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE             
MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM. WITH A            
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG              
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE IN THE MORNING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       54  33  64  38 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      55  32  64  36 /   0   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     56  34  64  38 /   0   0   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   57  32  66  38 /   0   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       55  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    56  34  63  37 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     55  34  62  34 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
118 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF                
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                  
TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...TUG HILL PLATEAU...UPPER MOHAWK            
VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS MOST                 
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EXPECT SCATTERED                 
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.                              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND               
BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.                
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                
THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND SNOW                 
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
UPDATE AS OF 1030 PM...HEAVY SNOW BAND SITTING OVER NORTHERN                    
ONEIDA ALONG WITH REPORT OF 7 INCHES IN 2 HOURS PROMPTED AN                     
UPGRADE TO A LES WARNING. FOR THE REST OF ONEIDA COUNTY...NRN                   
ONONDAGA AND NRN MADISON COUNTIES...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS                  
GOOD. THE LES BAND WILL BE IN TRANSITION WHEN IT FINALLY REACHES                
THESE LOCATIONS MON AM. ADDTNLY TEMPS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL 32-35F               
IN THE LOWER ELEVATION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN THUS LIMITING                  
ACC/S. LEFT THE 2 TO 4 INCHES MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY IN                    
ONONDAGA AND MADISON CO/S WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE S. THE ERIE                 
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IS ALSO MORE INTENSE THAN EXPECTED.               
IT IS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND RUNNING ALONG THE ROUTE 17/I-86                  
CORRIDOR ALL THE WAY FROM STEUBEN COUNTY TO DELAWARE COUNTY. SOME AREAS         
UNDER THE BAND COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO. FOR STEUBEN CO...THE                   
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LITTLE ACC/S              
FOR THE N AND E IN STEUBEN CO.                                                  
EARLIER SCAN...                                                                 
KBUF...KTYX AND KBGM 88D SHWS SCT-NUM SHRASN IN C NY AND                        
INTO NE PA. FOR NOW THE ACVTY APPEARS AS BROKEN BANDS IN WRN                    
NY/NRN PA AND MORE UNIFORM IN NC NY. THE LAKES WERE ACTING AS AN                
AGGREGATE ADDING TO THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASING                    
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LVL LIFT TO SUPPORT THE PRECIP. THE MAIN                    
REASON WHY THIS ACVTY WAS ENHANCING THIS AFTRN WAS THE APPRCHING                
SHRT WAVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES. THIS FEATURE WAS INTERCEPTING THE               
ENHANCED LL MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND SUPPORTG THE SCT-                
NUM SHRA/SN IN C NY AND ISLD TO SCT SHRASN IN NE PA. AT THIS POINT              
TEMPERATURES WERE ABV FREEZING IN MOST OF C NY/NE PA EXCEPT AT THE              
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SNOW WAS NOT COMING DOWN THAT HARD YET EITHER              
IN C NY/NE PA SO LITTLE ACC/S EXPECTED B4 SUNSET. THE ONLY                      
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NRN ONEIDA WHERE SNOWS WERE ALREADY FALLING               
LIGHTLY AS PER SPOTTER REPORTS.                                                 
AS THIS UPR LVL WAVE MOVES E THIS EVE...THE LL FLO BACKS A LITTLE               
MORE WRLY AND...COMBINED WITH LIFT...WILL GET SINGLE BAND LES GOING             
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. BUCKET DATA SHOWS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE     
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME WITH LAKE TEMP TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFS                    
RUNNING ARD 15-19C. THE FLO WAS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL FOR A BAND                  
FORMATION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE BGM SERVICE AREA IS THE BAND            
WILL NOT SET UP FOR LONGER THAN 6 HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS                
IT WILL BE OSCILLATING A BIT N AND S. THIS WILL KEEP AMNTS BELOW                
WARNING CRITERIA.                                                               
AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE E MONDAY AM...THE FLO VEERS A LITTLE                 
MORE NWRLY AND THE LAKE ONT BAND WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO SC NY DURG            
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT LOOSES ITS FETCH OFF                   
LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD MONDAY               
AFTERNOON AND MORPH INTO UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR NRN AND WRN PA. THUS HV              
CHC POPS FOR SHSN MOST OF CWA MON OUTSIDE LES AREAS.                            
SO THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH AREAS GET IMPACTED THE MOST FROM THE              
LES? THE RUC13...NAM12 AND GFS40 ALL AGREE THAT A SINGLE LES BAND               
FORMS ACRS THE ERN LAKE ONT COUNTIES INCLUDING NRN ONEIDA CO THIS               
EVE AND OSCILLATES BETWEEN NRN ONEIDA AND LEWIS CO/S SOUTHWARD TO THE           
CNTRL 1/3 OF ONEIDA COUNTY...CLIPPING THE FAR NRN PART OF                       
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES AT TIMES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS GIVEN                
THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND...NRN ONEIDA SHUD RECEIVE THE MOST               
SNOW...ESP NW PART OF COUNTY WHERE 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE REST               
OF NRN ONEIDA AND THE CENTRAL THIRD SHUD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES.                     
FARTHER S...IN THE SRN 1/3 OF ONEIDA COUNTY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS                    
ANTICIPATED. THUS EXPANDED THE LES ADVY FOR SRN ONEIDA ALSO.                    
NEXT CONCERN IS IF ADVY LEVEL SNOWS FALL ACRS NRN ONONDAGA AND NRN              
MADISON COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE CLSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING                
AS PER SYR LAMP DATA AND GFS WHEN THE BAND COMES SOUTH THRU THESE               
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE MET GUIDC FOR SYR IS ABV               
FREEZING PRIMARILY. ALSO NOT SURE HOW LONG THE BAND WILL REMAIN IN              
THESE AREAS AS IT LIKELY WILL BE ON ITS SOUTHWARD EXCURSION MONDAY              
FOR IT TO REALLY HIT SYR. SO HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN FAR NRN ONONDAGA             
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES REST OF ONONDAGA AND ALL OF MADISON. WILL                     
REVISIT THIS WITH A 4 PM ISSUANCE.                                              
AS FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND...WILL IT GET TO STEUBEN CO AND PRODUCE               
ADVY LEVEL SNOWS? MY INCLINATION AT THIS POINT IS THAT IT IS                    
LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW PART OF THE COUNTY AND                
THE STRG WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE TO CARRY THE LAKE MOISTURE EWRD. RIGHT             
NOW GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES. EARLY PLANS ARE THAT I WILL LIKELY                
UPGRADE THIS TO AN ADVY WITH A 4 PM ISSUANCE AND HIT THE WRN 1/2                
OF THE COUNTY WITH ADVY ACC/S. MORE COORD WILL OCCUR WITH WFO BUF               
ON THIS AS MORE DATA IS EVALUATED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
WITH LARGE SCALE UPR LVL TROF SHARPENING UP OVR THE ERN 1/3 OF THE              
UNITED STATES AND SHIFTG A BIT EAST OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE                      
OFFSHORE...GFS...NAM AND EURO ALL HAVE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE                
WELL E OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY NGT THRU WED. WITH A STRG                
BLOCKING UPR LVL RDG OVR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS CYCLONE IS               
SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO SEA...THUS A PROLONGED NRLY FLO OF LL COLD AIR              
SETS UP FOR MON NGT THRU WED AM. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -15C              
FROM TUE THRU WED AM. A DEEP AND RATHER MOIST LL NRLY FLO OF AIR                
WILL LIKELY GET THE FINGER LAKES SNOW BANDS GOING FROM TUE TO WED AM.           
WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVY ACC/S IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION               
IN THIS TIME FRAME.                                                             
REST OF AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SN SHWRS MON NGT AS RE-INFORCING              
SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH ALONG A FRNT BNDRY AND ASSCTD UPR LV               
WAVE. THERE CUD BE SOME LIGHT ACC/S AS WELL BY MON NGT/TUE AM. THEN             
FOR THE REST OF TUE INTO WED SEE LITTLE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE LES                  
AREAS OF DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A NRLY FLO IN THE FINGER                 
LAKES REGION. IT WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL.                                     
WILL HIGHLIGHT LES POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
MEAN TROF WILL BE FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. MULTIPLE                
JETS WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, CARVING OUT THE TROF               
AND REINFORCING POLAR AIR MASS.                                                 
VIGOROUS JET ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO IL/IN THURSDAY NIGHT, CAUSING                
WEAK SFC OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO INTENSIFY INTO WELL DEFINED                  
CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFF SHORE AND NOT AFFECT                
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITATION.                                           
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NY/PA EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING DRY                      
WEATHER. ANOTHER JET ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE                
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS STORM SYSTEM               
COULD AFFECT FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY NORTHERN                   
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
TWIN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF ERIE AND               
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. DIRECTLY UNDER THE SNOW BANDS, VISIBILITIES               
ARE FALLING TO 1 MILE OR LESS AND CEILINGS ARE LOWERING INTO IFR                
TERRITORY.                                                                      
WE BELIEVE THE STEADY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR TERMINALS UNTIL               
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH CAUSES THE BANDS TO                 
BREAK OFF THE LAKE AND HEAD SOUTH. THE TIMING ON THIS IS VERY MUCH              
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE WE WILL               
SEE A PUSH INTO RME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND A BROADER SCALE                  
PUSH SOUTHWARD WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.                      
IN THE INTERIM, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON AVERAGE BUT HIGHLY                     
VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. WE THINK THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN ELM AND BGM.                    
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...VFR/MVFR UPSTATE NY WITH SCT -SHSN. VFR NE               
PA.                                                                             
WED...VFR.                                                                      
WED NITE...BECMG MVFR WITH CHC LIGHT SNOW.                                      
THU...MVFR/IFR. CHC LIGHT SNOW.                                                 
FRI...VFR/MVFR. SCT SNOW SHOWERS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     NYZ037.                                                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     NYZ009.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJN                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BMW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJN                                                                
LONG TERM...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
156 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING                  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF                       
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR MOVING IN THIS                
AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS                 
MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW                 
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONEIDA COUNTY TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW           
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                    
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED OVER               
THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL                
PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
KBUF...KTYX AND KBGM 88D SHWS SCT-NUM SHRASN IN C NY AND INTO NE                
PA. FOR NOW THE ACVTY APPEARS AS BROKEN BANDS IN WRN NY/NRN PA AND              
MORE UNIFORM IN NC NY. THE LAKES WERE ACTING AS AN AGGREGATE                    
ADDING TO THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND              
LOW-LVL LIFT TO SUPPORT THE PRECIP. THE MAIN REASON WHY THIS                    
ACVTY WAS ENHANCING THIS AFTRN WAS THE APPRCHING SHRT WAVE FROM                 
THE LOWER LAKES. THIS FEATURE WAS INTERCEPTING THE ENHANCED LL                  
MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND SUPPORTG THE SCT-NUM SHRA/SN IN              
C NY AND ISLD TO SCT SHRASN IN NE PA. AT THIS POINT TEMPERATURES                
WERE ABV FREEZING IN MOST OF C NY/NE PA EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST                   
TERRAIN. THE SNOW WAS NOT COMING DOWN THAT HARD YET EITHER IN C                 
NY/NE PA SO LITTLE ACC/S EXPECTED B4 SUNSET. THE ONLY EXCEPTION                 
WILL BE FAR NRN ONEIDA WHERE SNOWS WERE ALREADY FALLING LIGHTLY AS              
PER SPOTTER REPORTS.                                                            
AS THIS UPR LVL WAVE MOVES E THIS EVE...THE LL FLO BACKS A LITTLE               
MORE WRLY AND...COMBINED WITH LIFT...WILL GET SINGLE BAND LES GOING             
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. BUFKIT DATA SHOWS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE     
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME WITH LAKE TEMP TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFS                    
RUNNING ARD 15-19C. THE FLO WAS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL FOR A BAND                  
FORMATION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE BGM SERVICE AREA IS THE BAND            
WILL NOT SET UP FOR LONGER THAN 6 HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS                
IT WILL BE OSCILLATING A BIT N AND S. THIS WILL KEEP AMNTS BELOW                
WARNING CRITERIA.                                                               
AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE E MONDAY AM...THE FLO VEERS A LITTLE                 
MORE NWRLY AND THE LAKE ONT BAND WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO SC NY DURG            
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT LOOSES ITS FETCH OFF                   
LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD MONDAY               
AFTERNOON AND MORPH INTO UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR NRN AND WRN PA. THUS HV              
CHC POPS FOR SHSN MOST OF CWA MON OUTSIDE LES AREAS.                            
SO THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH AREAS GET IMPACTED THE MOST FROM THE              
LES? THE RUC13...NAM12 AND GFS40 ALL AGREE THAT A SINGLE LES BAND               
FORMS ACRS THE ERN LAKE ONT COUNTIES INCLUDING NRN ONEIDA CO THIS               
EVE AND OSCILLATES BETWEEN NRN ONEIDA AND LEWIS CO/S SOUTHWARD TO THE           
CNTRL 1/3 OF ONEIDA COUNTY...CLIPPING THE FAR NRN PART OF                       
ONONADAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES AT TIMES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS GIVEN               
THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND...NRN ONEIDA SHUD RECEIVE THE MOST               
SNOW...ESP NW PART OF COUNTY WHERE 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE REST               
OF NRN ONEIDA AND THE CENTRAL THIRD SHUD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES.                     
FARTHER S...IN THE SRN 1/3 OF ONEIDA COUNTY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS                    
ANTICIPATED. THUS EXPANDED THE LES ADVY FOR SRN ONEIDA ALSO.                    
NEXT CONCERN IS IF ADVY LEVEL SNOWS FALL ACRS NRN ONONDAGA AND NRN              
MADISON COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE CLSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING                
AS PER SYR LAMP DATA AND GFS WHEN THE BAND COMES SOUTH THRU THESE               
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. THE MET GUIDC FOR SYR IS ABV               
FREEZING PRIMARILY. ALSO NOT SURE HOW LONG THE BAND WILL REMAIN IN              
THESE AREAS AS IT LIKELY WILL BE ON ITS SOUTHWARD EXCURSION MONDAY              
FOR IT TO REALLY HIT SYR. SO HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN FAR NRN ONONDAGA             
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES REST OF ONONDAGA AND ALL OF MADISON. WILL                     
REVISIT THIS WITH A 4 PM ISSUANCE.                                              
AS FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND...WILL IT GET TO STUEBEN CO AND PRODUCE               
ADVY LEVEL SNOWS? MY INCLINATION AT THIS POINT IS THAT IT IS                    
LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW PART OF THE COUNTY AND                
THE STRG WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE TO CARRY THE LAKE MOISTURE EWRD. RIGHT             
NOW GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES. EARLY PLANS ARE THAT I WILL LIKELY                
UPGRADE THIS TO AN ADVY WITH A 4 PM ISSUANCE AND HIT THE WRN 1/2                
OF THE COUNTY WITH ADVY ACC/S. MORE COORD WILL OCCUR WITH WFO BUF               
ON THIS AS MORE DATA IS EVALUATED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET ESTABLISHED TONIGHT. ALL               
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FLOW GOES 270-280 AND BAND SETS UP OVR NRN                 
ONEIDA CNTY IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT              
IS THAT BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THIS BAND WILL MEANDER OVRNGT AND              
NOT BECOME COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED OVR THE AREA FOR A LARGE AMNT OF               
TIME. OMEGA PROFILES INDICATE STRONG LIFT AND DENDRITE LAYER MOST               
FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z MON WITH GREATEST ACC/S EXPECT DRG THIS                  
TIME. QPF INDICATES SNOW AMNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES OVRNGT                
TONIGHT ACRS THIS AREA. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON EITHER               
SIDE OF THIS WITH AN OVERALL STORM TOTAL FROM SUN AFTN THRU MON                 
AFTN OF 5-8 INCHES ACRS NRN ONEIDA/TUG HILL. THUS WILL ISSUE AN                 
ADVISORY FOR THIS EVNG THRU MON AFTN.                                           
BNDRY WILL MV ACRS FA MON AFTN WITH AREA OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH                 
WITH IT. GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY DECENT LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY                 
TROF AND SHUD BRING QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE FA WITH                  
INCH OR TWO AS IT MVS THRU...MAINLY FM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. HV                 
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR MON WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR                  
-8C. WILL KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE U30S.                                       
NRLY FLOW SHIFTS LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO MORE MULTI-BAND EVENT AFTER              
MONDAY WITH FLOW FROM 340-350 DEGREES. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO                    
CONTINUE OVR THESE AREA THRU END OF SHORT TERM. TEMPS CONTINUE                  
THEIR SLOW FALL THRU MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BOTTOMING OUT NR -15C BY              
WED MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
A COLD PERIOD REMAINS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH A              
BROAD TROF IN THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HPC DISCUSSIONS SEE LONG WAVE            
PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE GFS RUNS DAYS 5-7...THEREFORE WE HAVE                 
LEANED EXCLUSIVELY WITH THEIR GUIDANCE WHICH REVOLVES AROUND THE                
ECMWF AND IT/S ENSEMBLES. ALONG WITH THE SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SOME         
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH             
A SMALL CLIPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPR GTLKS. THIS WILL            
BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK MULTI-BAND LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.           
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FLOW MAY TAKE ON A MORE DEFINITIVE NORTHERLY           
COMPONENT WHICH WOULD MEAN LAKE SNOW SHOWERS HOVERING ALONG AND                 
WEST OF I-81...AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL DOWNWIND SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE            
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT               
UPWARD MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FLIGHT OPS WILL REVOLVE AROUND DODGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS                   
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING                 
MORE WDSPRD MVFR TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE TWO MAIN LAKE BANDS OFF ERIE              
AND ONTARIO PASSING THROUGH THE UPSTATE NY TERMINALS. THE STRONGEST BAND        
WILL BE OFF ONTARIO AND AFFECT KRME FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT                
WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR. AIRPORT OPS SHOULD PLAN ON                 
THE NEED FOR SNOW REMOVAL AND TREATMENT OPERATIONS. THE CORE OF                 
THE LAKE SNOW BAND MAY LIFT NORTH OF KRME JUST BEFORE 12Z TO                    
PROVIDE A BREAK TO MVFR AND LIGHTER ACCUMS. KSYR LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN         
FRINGE OF HEAVY SNOW BAND WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND SOME                
LIGHT PLOWABLE SNOW. KELM-KITH-KBGM WILL RECEIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND               
MVFR RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS FROM INTRUSION OF LK ERIE BAND...ALTHOUGH            
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFT 12Z. ONLY VFR STATION LOOKS TO                
BE KAVP. A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH               
A CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.                
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15                
KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.                                                
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...VFR/MVFR UPSTATE NY WITH SCT -SHSN. VFR NE               
PA.                                                                             
WED...VFR.                                                                      
WED NITE...BECMG MVFR WITH CHC LIGHT SNOW.                                      
THU...MVFR/IFR. CHC LIGHT SNOW.                                                 
FRI...VFR/MVFR. SCT SNOW SHOWERS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST               
     MONDAY FOR NYZ009-037.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJN                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVN                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
644 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS                
TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.               
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION               
OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                
BRING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT AND                
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A QUICK MOVING                    
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH                        
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW                  
ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH                 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AREA OF PCPN OVR ERN ZONES IS TRANSLATING EAST AND SHUD EXIT FA IN              
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. THIS RAIN IN ASSOC WITH RRQ OF +150KT SPEED MAX               
AT UPPER LVLS. MODELS HVG HARD TIME PICKING UP ON QPF ASSOC WITH                
THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN                
WILL MV OUT OF AREA ARND 09Z. THIS WUD LV MOST OF FA IN A RELATIVE              
LULL FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MRNG.                                                
WRAP-AROUND IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OVR WRN SXNS OF FA THIS MRNG                
AS SECONDARY FRONT MVS THRU WRN NY WITH SW WINDS OVR FINGER LKS                 
AND W-NW WINDS FROM BUF-ERI. AS THIS BNDRY MVS THRU...SHUD SEE                  
PCPN TRANSLATE EAST INTO CNTRL AREAS BY MID-MRNG. H5 TROF WILL                  
SLOWLY LIFT THRU FA BY 18Z THIS AFTN. THRU THIS TIME...EXPECT CHC               
POPS OVR TWIN TIERS/WRN CATSKILLS TO CATEGORICAL FINGER LKS/TUG                 
HILL. GIVEN TEMPS STARTING OFF RELATIVELY WARM IN THE 40S...PCPN                
WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RA/SN UNTIL TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL AFTER 18Z.              
HV TRENDED TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY THRU THIS TIME BFR DROPPING                
SLIGHTLY DRG THE AFTN. TEMPS AT SFC AND ALOFT SHUD COOL ENUF BY                 
18Z TO WARRANT ALL SNOW MENTION AT THIS POINT...ALTHO DEEP VLYS                 
MAY HOLD ON TO WARM TEMPS LONG ENUF FOR A MIX UNTIL LATE AFTN.                  
ONCE TROF LIFTS OUT PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO MORE FAVORED LK                    
EFFECT REGIONS ACRS UPSTATE NY. FLOW WILL ALIGN OUT OF THE WEST                 
WITH MEAN WIND OF 270-280 DEGREES. THIS FLOW WUD TARGET THE TUG                 
HILL AREA OF NRN ONEIDA CNTY THIS AFTN. CUD ALSO SEE PORTIONS OF                
LK ERIE BAND REACHING INTO WRN SXNS OF STEUBEN CNTY THIS AFTN.                  
WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF                 
ACC/S ACRS THESE AREAS TODAY WITH RMNDR OF CNTRL NY UNDER A HALF                
INCH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET ESTABLISHED TONIGHT. ALL               
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FLOW GOES 270-280 AND BAND SETS UP OVR NRN                 
ONEIDA CNTY IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT              
IS THAT BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THIS BAND WILL MEANDER OVRNGT AND              
NOT BECOME COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED OVR THE AREA FOR A LARGE AMNT OF               
TIME. OMEGA PROFILES INDICATE STRONG LIFT AND DENDRITE LAYER MOST               
FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z MON WITH GREATEST ACC/S EXPECT DRG THIS                  
TIME. QPF INDICATES SNOW AMNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 INCHES OVRNGT                
TONIGHT ACRS THIS AREA. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON EITHER               
SIDE OF THIS WITH AN OVERALL STORM TOTAL FROM SUN AFTN THRU MON                 
AFTN OF 5-8 INCHES ACRS NRN ONEIDA/TUG HILL. THUS WILL ISSUE AN                 
ADVISORY FOR THIS EVNG THRU MON AFTN.                                           
BNDRY WILL MV ACRS FA MON AFTN WITH AREA OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH                 
WITH IT. GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY DECENT LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY                 
TROF AND SHUD BRING QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE FA WITH                  
INCH OR TWO AS IT MVS THRU...MAINLY FM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. HV                 
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR MON WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR                  
-8C. WILL KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE U30S.                                       
NRLY FLOW SHIFTS LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO MORE MULTI-BAND EVENT AFTER              
MONDAY WITH FLOW FROM 340-350 DEGREES. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO                    
CONTINUE OVR THESE AREA THRU END OF SHORT TERM. TEMPS CONTINUE                  
THEIR SLOW FALL THRU MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BOTTOMING OUT NR -15C BY              
WED MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD                   
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENTS REVOLVE                 
AROUND TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS             
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF ON TODAY`S RUNS. WHILE                 
MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS              
OVER UPSTATE NY... THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY                
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. POPS INCREASE LATER                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. A               
RE- REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE                 
CLIPPER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
FLIGHT OPERATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY STRONG W-NW WINDS TODAY THAT              
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.              
CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY             
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS UPSTATE NY TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.           
A STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE                   
VICINITY OF KRME...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CORE IS EXPECTED TO BE                
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS               
IN SNOW DEVELOPING AFT 04Z AT KRME...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER                
OR NOT THE INTENSE WHITEOUT CORE OF SNOW BAND WILL GET INTO THE                 
TERMINAL. AIRPORT OPS CAN EXPECT PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND                  
MONDAY. KSYR MAY ALSO SEE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT             
MAINLY MVFR AND LIGHTER ACCUMS.                                                 
ELSEWHERE...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR.                                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON...VFR. AREAS MVFR WITH SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS KRME-KSYR.                     
MON NGT/TUES/TUES NGT...MVFR UPSTATE NY IN -SHSN...GNRLY VFR NE PA.             
WED...VFR.                                                                      
THU...MVFR/IFR. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST               
     MONDAY FOR NYZ009.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PVN                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVN                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE                                                             
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
640 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL EXTEND INTO             
THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION              
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL              
NC THROUGH MID WEEK. A BRIEF MODERATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A DRY              
COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...                                                          
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS WEEK ARE STARTING EARLY... WITH AND                
BEHIND A CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE STATE FROM               
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NARROW BUT THICK BAND OF            
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE VA            
AND NRN NC MOUNTAINS A FEW HOURS AGO... WITHIN A VERTICAL WIND AND              
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IDEAL FOR SUCH CONDITIONS... INCLUDING A                    
SIGNIFICANT WNW WIND COMPONENT... INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH                   
HEIGHT... A DEEP STABLE LAYER ALOFT... AND MOISTURE ABOVE                       
MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL. WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ADDITIONAL                 
MOISTURE ALOFT UPSTREAM OVER KY AND TN... AND WITH OTHER CONDITIONS             
IN THE VERTICAL REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY STATE THROUGH MORNING...                
ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW CWA IS LIKELY THROUGH MID            
MORNING. THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING UPPER JET CORE NOW               
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NOSING INTO NE/KS/IA/MO AND THE SURFACE FRONT.             
CURRENTLY A POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF                
THIS JET APPEARS TO BE A PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER            
MO AND NE KS. WHILE THE CLOUD BASES HERE ARE AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...             
SOME OF THIS IS INDEED REACHING THE GROUND AS LIGHT RAIN WAS                    
REPORTED AT FNB AND MCI. INTERESTINGLY... AMONG THE GFS/ WRF-NMM/               
WRF-ARW/ CANADIAN/ ECMWF... NO MODEL INITIALIZED THIS PRECIP...                 
LEADING US TO CONCLUDE THAT THE FORCING WITH THIS JET IS LIKELY                 
STRONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE            
TO SHOW INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET FOR               
ANY PRECIP ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND... CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY             
OF STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED FORCING FOR ASCENT... THE POTENTIAL FOR A             
QUICK SPRINKLE OR TWO LATER TODAY DOES EXIST. AT THE VERY LEAST WE              
ARE VERY LIKELY TO SEE GREATER SKY COVER TODAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS             
THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS WHERE THE NAM AND RUC TRACK THE JET`S               
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WINDS KICK UP TODAY                
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH 850 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO             
INCREASE TO 25+ KTS WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER... PLUS UPSTREAM               
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED SPORADIC GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS. CONTINUED                   
BELOW-NORMAL THICKNESSES FACTORING IN THE LIKELY DRY ADIABATIC LOW              
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE YIELD HIGHS OF 53-59... SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM THE            
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLUSTERY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING               
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH... AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY DECREASE             
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER JET FORCING AND SURFACE FRONT.                 
HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ANEW VERY LATE TONIGHT AS AN            
INTENSE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPS FROM WI TOWARD NC. LOWS               
TONIGHT ARE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SKY COVER THERE IS...                 
HOWEVER BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS... HAVE KEPT LOWS            
BELOW NORMAL... 29-34. -GIH                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                      
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD! BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A              
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY             
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CLOSING OFF INTO AN             
UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 18Z TUE AFTERNOON. BASED ON            
THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...SHOWING A                   
30-35/S VORT MAX CROSSING CENTRAL NC BETWEEN ROUGHLY SUNRISE AND                
NOON. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW H5 HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 5400 METERS               
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC BY 12Z TUE...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES               
RANGING FROM 1275 METERS (NW) TO 1285 METERS (SE) THROUGHOUT THE                
ENTIRE DAY...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. THE MSLP                 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RATHER TIGHT...WITH THE MID                    
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 1035-1040 MB HIGH IN THE            
MIDWEST AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST                 
SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-30 KT FLOW THROUGHOUT A DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD AND              
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING                
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH THE                      
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS POINT TO HIGHS WELL BELOW MOS                      
GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH THE LOW            
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR DOWNSLOPE                       
WARMING/DRYING...EXPECT THAT SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET             
ANY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THAT RESULTS...AND WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING            
FROM 39F IN THE TRIAD TO 43F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.                           
ADDITIONALLY...WITH 25-30 KT FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER...EXPECT                   
SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30            
MPH. EXPECT THAT WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE IN              
THE LOWER/MID 20S.                                                              
NOW...HERE COMES THE REALLY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST.                   
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION W/RESPECT TO ICE OR NEAR SATURATION            
IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -20C REGION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE              
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EXTREMELY STEEP (DRY                     
ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES ALL THE WAY UP TO 700 MB! AT THE SAME                    
TIME...A POTENT VORT MAX ASSOC/W A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE                     
APPROACHING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                    
NOW...THE GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS                       
WAVE...HOWEVER...THE NAM IS STRONGER AND TAKES THE STRONGEST ENERGY             
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC. IN ADDITION TO CURVATURE VORTICITY IN                 
ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE...CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY SHOULD ALSO BE                 
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN A VERY STRONG (125 KT) JET PROGGED                
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TUE MORNING AND EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS            
ALL POINT TO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF HWY 64 IN THE              
TRIANGLE AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD               
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH THICKNESSES OF 1275-1285 METERS PROGGED                 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WETBULB TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW                
FREEZING...IF ANY ISOLD CONVECTIVE PRECIP DID DEVELOP...IT WOULD                
FALL AS SNOW. NOW...GIVEN SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING IN              
THE LOWEST LEVELS...WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ONLY VIRGA OR FLURRIES              
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP ECHOES. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT            
IS STRONG ENOUGH...IT IS NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH THAT WE COULD SEE            
A FEW BRIEF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST               
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES ALONG/NORTH OF             
HWY 64 ON TUE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.                                      
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND AS THE UPPER TROUGH             
PASSES OFFSHORE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS EXPERIENCE STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY STILL BE UNDERWAY AT               
THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND              
EXPECT A CHILLY 10 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF              
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING AS MUCH AS THE THICKNESSES                 
WOULD SUGGEST (1265-1275 METER THICKNESSES SUGGEST LOWS NEAR                    
20F)...AND WILL FCST LOWS RANGING FROM 23-27F. WITH A 10 MPH NW                 
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES COULD POSSIBLY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER                 
TEENS TUE NIGHT. -VINCENT                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...                                                          
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A -NAO PATTERN THROUGH THE            
END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS -NAO PATTERN WILL BE                        
CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY STRETCHING FROM THE                  
NORTHERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DAVIS STRAIT/SOUTHERN                  
GREENLAND...WITH AN UPSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER                       
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND RESULTANT L/W TROUGHING ALONG OR JUST OFF             
THE US EAST COAST. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN BEGIN TO RISE THIS WEEKEND                
COURTESY OF BROAD RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH               
SHOULD SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WED MORNING...12Z                  
THICKNESSES PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1265 METERS...AND 00Z THICKNESSES              
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1300 METERS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO 1290               
METERS IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...WILL FCST ANOTHER                  
CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 42F (NE COASTAL            
PLAIN) TO 46F IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY             
SKIES WED GIVEN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS            
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.                                         
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY:                                                   
A S/W TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO              
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW                   
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ATTENDANT DRY COLD               
FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE                    
FROPA... LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STIRRING ARE            
EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. A BRIEF WAA REGIME AHEAD OF               
THE S/W TROUGH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THEIR WARMEST                    
READINGS OF THE WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE            
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.                                                     
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:                                                        
NNW`RLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND AN INCOMING 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH AND             
FRESH CP AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES INTO             
THE 40S FRIDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH              
NEARBY OR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO              
THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.                                                      
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:                                                        
THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THEN SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS                  
PERIOD... BENEATH THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGING ALOFT. RETURN FLOW AROUND             
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR                  
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE                
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND             
AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
TONIGHT... HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVELS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON               
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW             
LEVEL TURBULENCE. A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM SRN OH ACROSS WRN            
KY TO NRN AR WILL SWING INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL              
BECOME BRIEFLY FROM THE SW BEFORE SHIFTING TO NW AFTER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE. A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO AROUND 25 KT WINDS UP            
AT 4000-5000 FT AGL... AND WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 18-23 KTS               
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO               
VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD... WHILE STEADILY              
LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA ARE POSSIBLE AS AN            
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES INTO NC THIS AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY                
MOVES OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT... BUT IT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT             
THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS.                         
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TONIGHT ONWARD: A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE            
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW... BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT               
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH                   
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. RWI SHOULD SEE THE LOWEST CEILING AND MAY SEE A             
QUICK SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.             
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...VINCENT/MWS                                                         
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1226 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY               
AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BEING REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT                 
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF               
THE COUNTRY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED 850 MB TEMPS            
DOWN TO FREEZING CURRENTLY. DEEP MIXING UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE TODAY             
WILL WARM THOSE 850 MB READINGS SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD              
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THIS IS STILL ON THE LOW            
SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AT MOST SITES BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH            
GFS/NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                                                 
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT            
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BECOME QUITE GOOD. TEMPERATURES              
WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING (OR BELOW) IN THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS.             
WE WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF             
NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...THE ONLY TWO COUNTIES IN OUR              
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY CONTINUES.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EAST COAST UPPER TROF AND DRY SFC HIGH                      
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. H5 VORT MAX DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL                
MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT...OPENING THE DOOR                 
FOR STRONG CAA THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.                                  
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT                    
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MINIMAL RECOVERY DURING THE              
DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERN ON ITS OWN WOULD                    
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S...BUT DO RECALL THAT IN                 
ANOTHER RECENT COLD OUTBREAK TEMPS WERE ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER                 
THAN THICKNESS SCHEMES HAD SUGGESTED. THEREFORE WENT WITH                       
MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW GUIDANCE.                 
THE DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP IN THE 15-20MPH RANGE WITH                   
GUSTS AROUND 25MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO MIX                 
DOWN INTO THE TEENS...BUT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS SHOULD BE                        
MITIGATED BY THE COLD TEMPERATURES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD              
AS A STRONG EAST COAST UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE. SPRAWLING                      
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND                 
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER IN THE NW FLOW                
TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR BY THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THO THE UPPER                 
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT BY SATURDAY...1034MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY.                                     
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH MID-UPPER 20S                    
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD EVEN BE ENOUGH TO                  
FINALLY END THE GROWING SEASON IN NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN                    
COUNTIES...THE ONLY TWO THAT MISSED OUT ON THE HARD FREEZE AT THE               
END OF OCTOBER.                                                                 
THERMAL TROF LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY IS               
IN QUESTION. PROGGED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 925MB TEMPS ONLY                 
REBOUNDING TO 0C BY 00Z THU SUGGEST THAT EVEN 50 WILL BE A STRUGGLE.            
FRIDAY ALSO PROMISES TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND CURRENT                      
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW                  
EXTENDED GFS MOS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS DO A GOOD JOB OF                     
CONVEYING WEATHER MORE BECOMING OF JANUARY THAN NOVEMBER.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH              
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.                         
OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH                 
FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION               
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS ARE AT THEIR PEAK                  
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE TIGHTEST                   
PORTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COINCIDENT WITH THE HEART OF THE               
COLD ADVECTION PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE                
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE LATER THIS MORNING AS SEAS DIMINISH               
BELOW 6 FT AND WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KT.                                          
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS                
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...WILL TRANSLATE TO BENIGN                    
WESTERLY FLOW. A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL                     
INITIATE THE CAA SURGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NW WINDS KICKING UP TO               
SCA LEVELS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND REMAINING THERE FOR MOST OF THE              
DAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS 20-25 KT...BUT I AM CONCERNED THAT IS NOT              
STRONG ENOUGH GIVEN THAT THE GFS SHOWS 25-30 KT THRU A DEEP MIXED               
LAYER. NAM WIND FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG...BUT SOLIDLY IN THAT              
20-25KT RANGE.                                                                  
SEA GROWTH WILL BE LIMITED BY A TRAJECTORY THAT IS ALMOST                       
PERFECTLY OFFSHORE. HAVE ONLY GONE FOR 6 FT SEAS AT FRYING PAN                  
BUOY ON TUESDAY...AND 3-5 FT SHOULD COVER IT WITHIN 20NM.                       
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST TUE                   
NIGHT AND WED...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. BY                 
WED NIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO MODIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...ALLOWING              
WIND DIRECTION TO BACK TO WEST. RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP ON                     
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING               
HOW MUCH THE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. MIXING WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT                 
THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE DECENT. FOR              
NOW WILL CRANK UP A SOLID 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                             
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL                  
START TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY AS WINDS PICK BACK UP.                            
ANY CAA SURGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE                
VALID PERIOD OF THIS CWF.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...TRA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RAS                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...43                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
648 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SIGNIFICANT                   
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE TRANQUIL FOR                     
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE              
THRU TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST...              
COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LATER...PERSISTS THROUGH TUE.             
NAM/GFS/RUC SHOWING DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN DENDRITE ZONE SPREADING                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS A FEATURE                
MORE CONGRUENT WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO AFFECT               
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHEAST INTO               
FAYETTE...NICHOLAS COUNTIES.                                                    
PREVIOUS POPS/WX GRIDS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE UPSLOPE EVENT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR AND              
ENHANCED UPSLOPE EVENT EXPECTED WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT. ALSO...                
INCREASE POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PLUME FROM LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE                
NICHOLAS COUNTY FOR NOW...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
TO INCLUDE TYLER AND DODDRIDGE AS WELL.                                         
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS. HAVE GONE WITH             
THE SLIGHTLY LOWER MET GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S LOWLANDS...BUT                  
AROUND 10F HIGHEST RIDGES. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY CODED IN THE LOWER 30S             
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 10S HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER H850 TEMPS DOWN TO                
-10C TO -12C PER NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                          
DEEP UPPER                                                                      
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST...LEAVING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN               
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...AND WARM                 
FRONT WILL BRING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT WILL NOT EVEN BE            
ABLE TO BRING US BACK TO NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS. THE WARM FRONT DOES              
NOT HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE WITH IT...AND WILL JUST BRIEFLY                
SEND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. LIKE A SIMILAR SCENARIO LAST              
WEEK...NAM QPF IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SREF PROBABILITIES             
SHOW THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION...MORE SO BEHIND             
THE FRONT. FELT THIS WAS MORE REALISTIC...AND WENT AS FAR AS TO GO              
LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.                   
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT. SKY            
GRIDS DEPICT THE END OF THE UPSLOPE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN THE             
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES NEARLY SIMULTANEOUSLY. WITH             
SNOW ON THE GROUND...A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE SKY CLEARS IN                   
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES WOULD WARRANT A DROP IN THESE                        
TEMPERATURES. WENT OPTIMISTIC...WHICH STILL CARRIES VERY COLD                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL RUNNING WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM...WHICH STRESSES THE             
COOL/COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND               
GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER THIS TIME...WHERE A PANHANDLE LOW                 
DEVELOPS AND COULD BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF                
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GFS DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE                  
LAKES...WITH A REINFORCING DROP TO THE 500HPA HEIGHTS. AS THE GFS               
SEEMS TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...AM MORE INCLINED TO ROLL             
WITH THE STEADIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST BEYOND               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH SNOW             
SHOWERS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE 18-00Z ESPECIALLY HTS-CRW-PKB              
VCNTY.                                                                          
CEILINGS MAINLY 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN SNOW                     
SHOWERS.  CEILINGS AROUND 2 TO 3 THSD ACROSS LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF                
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT STILL AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAINS.                
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                  
     WVZ037>040-046-047.                                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR               
     WVZ011-020-027-028-030>032-035-036.                                        
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ                                                               
NEAR TERM...ARJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...26                                                                  
AVIATION...KTB                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER THRU TONIGHT. UPPER SYSTEMS PRODUCES A                  
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT                
PASSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE              
THRU TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST...              
COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES LATER...PERSISTS THROUGH TUE.             
NAM/GFS/RUC SHOWING DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN DENDRITE ZONE SPREADING                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS A FEATURE                
MORE CONGRUENT WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO AFFECT               
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHEAST INTO               
FAYETTE...NICHOLAS COUNTIES.                                                    
PREVIOUS POPS/WX GRIDS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE UPSLOPE EVENT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR AND              
ENHANCED UPSLOPE EVENT EXPECTED WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT. ALSO...                
INCREASE POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PLUME FROM LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE                
NICHOLAS COUNTY FOR NOW...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
TO INCLUDE TYLER AND DODDRIDGE AS WELL.                                         
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS. HAVE GONE WITH             
THE SLIGHTLY LOWER MET GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S LOWLANDS...BUT                  
AROUND 10F HIGHEST RIDGES. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY CODED IN THE LOWER 30S             
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 10S HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER H850 TEMPS DOWN TO                
-10C TO -12C PER NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST...LEAVING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN               
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...AND WARM                 
FRONT WILL BRING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT WILL NOT EVEN BE            
ABLE TO BRING US BACK TO NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS. THE WARM FRONT DOES              
NOT HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE WITH IT...AND WILL JUST BRIEFLY                
SEND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. LIKE A SIMILAR SCENARIO LAST              
WEEK...NAM QPF IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SREF PROBABILITIES             
SHOW THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION...MORE SO BEHIND             
THE FRONT. FELT THIS WAS MORE REALISTIC...AND WENT AS FAR AS TO GO              
LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.                   
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT. SKY            
GRIDS DEPICT THE END OF THE UPSLOPE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN THE             
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES NEARLY SIMULTANEOUSLY. WITH             
SNOW ON THE GROUND...A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE SKY CLEARS IN                   
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES WOULD WARRANT A DROP IN THESE                        
TEMPERATURES. WENT OPTIMISTIC...WHICH STILL CARRIES VERY COLD                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL RUNNING WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM...WHICH STRESSES THE             
COOL/COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND               
GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER THIS TIME...WHERE A PANHANDLE LOW                 
DEVELOPS AND COULD BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF                
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GFS DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE                  
LAKES...WITH A REINFORCING DROP TO THE 500HPA HEIGHTS. AS THE GFS               
SEEMS TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...AM MORE INCLINED TO ROLL             
WITH THE STEADIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST BEYOND               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL               
TRACK EAST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS DOWN TO ABOUT            
600FT AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3/4SM WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...1500FT              
AND 2SM FOR LIGHTER SNOW.                                                       
RADAR IMAGES SHOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WV OVER CRW...MOVING              
EAST TO AFFECT BKW THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z.                                        
ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER TROF WILL SWING            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS...AND PROMOTING                
UPSLOPE SNOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS             
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR                  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                                       
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS FROM W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                   
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.                                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY/...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN                  
VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY CKB-CRW AND E INTO                   
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND BKW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                  
     WVZ037>040-046-047.                                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR               
     WVZ011-020-027-028-030>032-035-036.                                        
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ                                                               
NEAR TERM...ARJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...26                                                                  
AVIATION...ARJ                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1036 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNDER WAY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA              
WHERE KETH/KVVV/K8D3 HAVE REMAINED STEADY TEMPERATURE WISE. WITH                
AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...EXPECT THIS AREA HAS STOPPED                  
WARMING. HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF SNOW A FEW HOURS AS THERE IS               
NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR. AS FOR MY WESTERN COUNTIES...HAVE                 
EXTENDED THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER                  
WITH A NINE DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD...EXPECT VERY LITTLE RAIN              
FALL TO REACH THE GROUND.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE MAINLY TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN                
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                   
WELL...FOR SOMETHING LIKE THE THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN                      
DAYS...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS ONGOING ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF A WARM                 
FRONT TO WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACCOMPANYING THIS                
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS WARM AIR ADVECTION...AT A PREMIUM. FOR               
EXAMPLE...AT 7 PM CST LAST EVENING KPIR WAS SITTING AT 35                       
DEGREES. ALONG CAME THE WARM FRONT AND THE WIND SHIFT AND THE                   
TEMPERATURE THERE ROSE TO 44 DEGREES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.                   
THIS WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST              
NORTH DAKOTA...SO THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BACK DOOR                 
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY                 
FROM THE CWA AT THIS TIME. THIS TRANSITION INTO CAA BEHIND THE COLD             
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO DENOTED BY THE 925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE              
RUC MODEL THIS MORNING. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND               
ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST CAA THIS AFTERNOON SOME SNOW SHOWERS               
COULD WORK THEIR WAY DOWN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA                   
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL                
JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH MAY                   
ENHANCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE /700HPA/ THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY                  
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...BASICALLY JUST               
TWEAKED SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MENTION FOR THIS                             
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NE SODAK AND WC MN...AND LEFT THE SLT              
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST FORECAST                
ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A DRY FORECAST                 
FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CAA SEQUENCE LASTING FROM               
TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY                         
TRANSITIONING INTO A LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND                
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ENCROACHING THE              
REGION DRAGS ITS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLY                 
ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND SCENARIO DEVELOPING. NO                   
CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE WERE MADE TO INHERITED MAX/MIN TEMPS WITH                  
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH TUESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE                     
WARMEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                  
.LONG TERM...00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH TEMPS THROUGH                
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH                      
LONGWAVE TROF LOCATED EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE                 
REGION. CURRENTLY DRY FCST IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                  
NEXT WEEKEND...AND THIS STILL LOOKS VALID. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM TO              
DROP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ALL                
PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE                      
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING                
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
TEMP WISE...WEDNESDAY MAX T GRIDS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.              
THE NAM KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHEN               
COMPARED TO THE GFS/EC...WITH THE EC BEING THE COOLEST OF THE                   
THREE. THE GFS/EC DO AGREE ON A CAA PATTERN TAKING PLACE DURING                 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH OF CAA IS WHERE DIFFICULTIES               
ARISE. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED UP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA               
BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT KEPT THE COOLISH TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH FAIRLY EARLY. MAY                
END UP BEING A "STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING" DAY WITH REGARDS TO                   
HIGHS...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INSERT THAT MUCH DETAIL. BY                          
THURSDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE REGION...WITH THE               
EC SHOWING A 1040MB HIGH. COOL CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR                  
THURSDAY. DID BOLSTER CLOUDS JUST A BIT...AS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY                
BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN              
CONTINUED MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KATY AND KABR FOR THE REST OF              
TODAY. FARTHER WEST WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND                  
KMBG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN               
TO DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS AREA...WITH                       
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15             
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY                 
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z MONDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SD                                                                     
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...ZELTWANGER                                                           
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
309 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE MAINLY TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN                
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                   
WELL...FOR SOMETHING LIKE THE THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN                      
DAYS...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS ONGOING ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF A WARM                 
FRONT TO WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACCOMPANYING THIS                
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS WARM AIR ADVECTION...AT A PREMIUM. FOR               
EXAMPLE...AT 7 PM CST LAST EVENING KPIR WAS SITTING AT 35                       
DEGREES. ALONG CAME THE WARM FRONT AND THE WIND SHIFT AND THE                   
TEMPERATURE THERE ROSE TO 44 DEGREES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.                   
THIS WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST              
NORTH DAKOTA...SO THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BACK DOOR                 
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY                 
FROM THE CWA AT THIS TIME. THIS TRANSITION INTO CAA BEHIND THE COLD             
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO DENOTED BY THE 925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE              
RUC MODEL THIS MORNING. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND               
ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST CAA THIS AFTERNOON SOME SNOW SHOWERS               
COULD WORK THEIR WAY DOWN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA                   
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL                
JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH MAY                   
ENHANCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE /700HPA/ THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY                  
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...BASICALLY JUST               
TWEAKED SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MENTION FOR THIS                             
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NE SODAK AND WC MN...AND LEFT THE SLT              
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST FORECAST                
ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A DRY FORECAST                 
FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CAA SEQUENCE LASTING FROM               
TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY                         
TRANSITIONING INTO A LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND                
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ENCROACHING THE              
REGION DRAGS ITS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLY                 
ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND SCENARIO DEVELOPING. NO                   
CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE WERE MADE TO INHERITED MAX/MIN TEMPS WITH                  
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH TUESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE                     
WARMEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                  
.LONG TERM...00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH TEMPS THROUGH                
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH                      
LONGWAVE TROF LOCATED EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE                 
REGION. CURRENTLY DRY FCST IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                  
NEXT WEEKEND...AND THIS STILL LOOKS VALID. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM TO              
DROP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ALL                
PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE                      
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING                
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
TEMP WISE...WEDNESDAY MAX T GRIDS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.              
THE NAM KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHEN               
COMPARED TO THE GFS/EC...WITH THE EC BEING THE COOLEST OF THE                   
THREE. THE GFS/EC DO AGREE ON A CAA PATTERN TAKING PLACE DURING                 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH OF CAA IS WHERE DIFFICULTIES               
ARISE. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED UP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA               
BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT KEPT THE COOLISH TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH FAIRLY EARLY. MAY                
END UP BEING A "STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING" DAY WITH REGARDS TO                   
HIGHS...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INSERT THAT MUCH DETAIL. BY                          
THURSDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE REGION...WITH THE               
EC SHOWING A 1040MB HIGH. COOL CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR                  
THURSDAY. DID BOLSTER CLOUDS JUST A BIT...AS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY                
BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KMBG AND KABR                   
TERMINAL SITES BY 12Z...AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS QUICKLY SE                 
THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR THOSE CIGS TO ADVECT INTO KPIR AND KATY              
BY 18Z. THE MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY                   
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. VSBYS SHOULD BE P6SM AT ALL                      
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
910 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED              
FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS                  
BEHIND IT TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS/RUC FORECASTS. THIS WILL                
KEEP AIR MIXED UP WITH MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS                  
NIGHTS. RAISED LOWS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...OTHERWISE CHANGES                  
WERE MAINLY COSMETIC. TR.92                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
514 PM                                                                          
VFR THRU PERIOD. WIND SHIFT TO NORTH EXPECTED METROPLEX AROUND 02Z              
AND WACO 05Z. BY TUESDAY AFTN SFC RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND FLOW WILL             
SWITCH BACK SOUTH.   84                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR PLACE A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE                   
FROM LUBBOCK TO WICHITA FALLS TO JUST NORTH OF PARIS. TEMPERATURES              
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S...WITH 50S AND 60S                  
NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE VIRTUALLY THE                
SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR                 
AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE REGION SO HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE                   
AFFECTED MUCH. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EFFECTIVE               
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.                       
BY TOMORROW A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS...WITH                  
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL               
RETURN WEDNESDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE                  
LOWER 70S. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.                 
MODELS INDICATE THAT A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT                
OF CANADA ON THURSDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS                  
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE RESULTANT FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE GFS.                
GIVEN THE DENSE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF.              
IN ADDITION...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE                  
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN WIDE VARIATIONS IN               
TEMPERATURES FROM RUN TO RUN. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE              
NUMBERS CLOSER THAN THE MAV MOS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST.              
NORTH TEXAS WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE                     
WEEKEND. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH                 
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY              
A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN              
MONDAY AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...               
SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY. SH/13                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  63  47  75  54 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
WACO, TX              40  65  45  73  54 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
PARIS, TX             38  57  38  68  47 /   0   0   0   0  10                  
DENTON, TX            40  62  44  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          40  60  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
DALLAS, TX            46  61  47  72  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
TERRELL, TX           41  60  43  71  52 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         41  62  42  72  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            42  67  45  73  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER               
FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN BY TUESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE TROUGH WILL ROUND THROUGH WEST VA AND                     
WESTERN VA THROUGH 18Z PER RUC13. KI16...PINEVILLE WEST VA WENT                 
DOWN TO 1SM IN THESE SCATTERED BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE WAVE. A QUICK COATING COULD FALL IN NORTHERN MERCER                    
SOUTHERN SUMMERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SNW SHWS BACK WEST MOVING               
IN MORE OF A WESTERLY FASHION AS H85 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALTHOUGH                
NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIDGING TO SHUT SNW SHWS DOWN IN WESTERN                       
GREENBRIER. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS                
THERE...WITH ABOUT AN INCH ALONG THE HIGHEST PARTS OF                           
SUMMER/MERCER COUNTY. BACK EAST...NOT MUCH OF THE SNWS SHWS IN THE              
FAR WEST WILL SURVIVE...PERHAPS JUST FLURRIES IN THE                            
ROA/BCB/PSK/MKJ CORRIDOR. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH                       
TODAY...EXCEPT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS               
THE NW FLOW CLOUD DECK ERODES WEST WITH SOME HEATING. MORNING                   
SOUNDING SHOWS A THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE UNDER THE                              
INVERSION...WHICH MEANS CLDS PROB WILL HANG TOUGH UNTIL INVERSION               
LOWERS A BIT TONIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
EXPECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE ERN TROUGH                          
MONDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE WRN SLOPES WHILE              
THE EAST SEES DOWNSLOPING WINDS. GOING TO FOLLOW A 00Z GFS/21Z                  
SREF BLEND THIS PERIOD. GFS SHOWING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING               
IN FROM THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE NC/VA PIEDMONT MONDAY. THE                      
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DING INTO THE CENTRAL APPS MON NIGHT WHICH              
WILL BRING THE BEST SHOT OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ATTM...COULD SEE              
UP TO 4 INCHES IN NRN GREENBRIER FROM MON AFTN-TUE AFTN. MAY HAVE               
TO SHOOT OUT AN ADVISORY IF THIS CONTINUES TO GO THE WAY THE                    
MODELS PLAN IT OUT...BUT APPEARS WRN GREENBRIER IS THE ONLY AREA                
TO SEE IT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS.                           
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN ERNEST TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE                
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEPART.             
LOOKS LIKE UPSLOPE RH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ACCUMULATING            
SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF               
TUESDAY EVENING. THUS KEEPING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS WEST TUESDAY WITH            
ONLY FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING. OTRW QUITE COLD TUE WITH MANY SPOTS              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS WHILE SUN/DOWNSLOPE             
ALLOW FOR SOME 40S OUT EAST. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR                 
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE AND SOME               
SNOW COVER FAR WEST. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH APPEARS SOME               
MID/UPPER TEENS LIKELY FAR WEST WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WED RESULTING IN                   
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT CHILLY TEMPS WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS                
ACROSS THE WEST THU MORNING. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                     
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR                
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW LOW PRESSURE                          
SYSTEMS/TROUGHS TO HEAD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.               
FOR THE AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW                 
NORMAL ESPCLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD                
AIR AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THU INTO THU NIGHT.                     
REPRIEVE IN COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SHORT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES               
IN FRIDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER S/W SET TO DIVE INTO THE REGION FOR              
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG              
WITH A FEW ADDED -SHSN ACROSS THE NW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
EXPECTING 3K TO 5K CLD DECK TO REMAIN IN THE KLWB/KBLF CORRIDOR                 
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS CAN STILL GUST TO 30KT AT ALL                 
TERMINALS EXCEPT KLWB THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE                       
STRONGEST WINDS ARE PROBABLY OVER. ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPS INTO TH                 
TROUGH BETWEEN 3Z-6Z TONIGHT BEFORE WAA ENSUES. ALTHOUGH PVA IS                 
SUBTLE AT KLWB TONIGHT....MIGHT JUST BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW                
HOURS OF MVR SNOW SHS. THE OP GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS                     
FEATURE...WITH MOISTURE BRIEFLY TOUCHING H7 IN THE TIME FRAME. CAA              
RETURNS WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF                  
PERIOD WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNW SHS DEVELOPING MON AFTERNOON AND                
MONDAY NIGHT KLWB THEN KBLF. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW                
ENGLAND COAST TUES AND TUESDAY NIGHT DEEPENS THE EASTERN TROUGH SUCH            
THAT AN UPPER WAVE MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR SNW SHWS TO PENETRATE AS                  
FAR SOUTH AS THE KROA/KBCB/KPSK CORRIDOR WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS.                 
MOUNTAIN SNW SHWS AND BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR VIS/CIG WILL PERSIST THROUGH            
THE WEEK KLWB/KBLF...WITH AT WORST MVFR CIGS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS               
OTHER TERMINALS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP                                                                
NEAR TERM...KM                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JH/WP                                                              
LONG TERM...DS                                                                  
AVIATION...KM                                                                   
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
328 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                            
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.              
MODEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE WITHIN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER            
TROUGH AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEPER                    
MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS HELPED PERSISTENT          
NNW OR NORTH LAKE EFFECT BANDS KEEP THEIR INTENSITY THROUGH                     
MID-AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR             
AND THE SURFACE OBS WHICH HAVE ENHANCED THESE SNOW BANDS.  ONE BAND             
DROPPED 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM VILAS THROUGH LINCOLN AND LANGLADE                   
COUNTIES AS THE CONVERGENCE AXIS DROPPED SOUTH.  ANOTHER CONVERGENCE            
AXIS HAS BEEN FEEDING AN ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS EASTER UPPER MICHIGAN            
AND HAS BEEN TRYING MOVE SW TOWARDS THE DOOR PENINSULA.                         
OBVIOUSLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                 
NORTH TO NNW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT                  
CONDITIONS WILL TURN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS THE LONGEVITY OF              
THE BANDS.  IMPRESSIVE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T/S AROUND              
20C WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING 850-700MB DRY (FALLING FROM 70             
TO 40 PCT) AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  WAS ALSO THINKING               
THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO               
(SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 0-7F) WOULD SLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY IMPACT AS OF YET.  THE LONGER                 
FETCHES AS A RESULT OF THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW SEEM TO NEGATING THIS            
FACTOR UNLIKE YESTERDAY.  BUT AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE                   
AREA...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAKE AWHILE TO WIND DOWN...SO HAVE             
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.  THINK              
THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING AND               
ANOTHER HALF INCH OVERNIGHT.                                                    
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO                
FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS THE CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER WISCONSIN WASHES             
OUT AND WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF              
THE OTHER CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAKES IT TO               
THE DOOR PENINSULA...WHICH COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF              
SNOW.  MODEL DATA SUGGEST IT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING                      
WASHINGTON ISLAND BUT HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE              
NIGHT ANYWAY.  LOWS FROM THE LOW TEENS WEST TO LOW 20S EAST.                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NE WISCONSIN TOMORROW WITH MASSIVE HEIGHT             
RISES UNDERWAY ALOFT.  PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CU WILL HANG ON OR                  
DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING             
THE MORNING.  WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER INVADING THE STATE.  HIGHS RANGING FROM THE               
UPPER 20S NW TO THE MIDDLE 30S SE.                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                      
THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND          
THURSDAY AND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A WINTER       
STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE THE TWO MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS PERIOD.      
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MAY CREATE SUFFICIENT            
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE              
IN THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION               
SETTING UP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THINK THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ADVISORY CRITERIA              
SNOW EVENT IN VILAS COUNTY...AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE                
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD TODAY. THE EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF IS BEING OVERLOOKED FOR NOW...AS                   
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT ALSO LOOKS                 
LIKE THE SURFACE AND 850MB LOWS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT               
SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA...DESPITE THE QPF AMOUNTS PREDICTED BY                
THE ECMWF. SO WILL WAIT AND SEE AND KEEO DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. &&               
.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO                
IMPACT RHI THROUGH THE EVENING.  HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW ENHANCED                 
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH DROPPED VSBYS TO 1/4SM AT RHI               
EARLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE.  THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN             
AS IT BECOMES FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WILL HAVE                
POTENTIAL TO DROP VSBYS AT AUW/CWA TO IFR LEVELS MID TO LATE                    
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CENTRAL WI TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS                 
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.  LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE             
AREA...ENDING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE TAF                    
SITES.                                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MPC/RDM                                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1043 AM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RUC/VIS/IR/WV/RADAR                   
IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE WITHIN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT NOW MOVING OVER              
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE IS GIVING A SUBTLE                        
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS A PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN                       
WISCONSIN AS EVIDENT BY A SOUTHWARD DRIFT IN A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW               
BAND OVER ONEIDA COUNTY. VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND HAVE BEEN                  
FALLING TO AROUND 3/4SM THIS MORNING...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO             
HEAR A QUICK HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH THE BAND`S PASSAGE. LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS ARE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS THE 350-360 DIRECTION BEHIND              
THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY FAVORABLE FOR BEEFY                       
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...WONDER IF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVER                  
ONTARIO AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING ERODE THE                  
SNOW BANDS. SO DESPITE A 4 INCH SNOW REPORT RECEIVED EARLIER THIS               
MORNING FROM WINCHESTER...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE ADVISORY AT THIS                 
TIME. OTHERWISE...HAVE REMOVED SNOW SHOWERS (KEPT SCT FLURRIES) FROM            
FAR NE WISCONSIN SINCE BELIEVE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND MIXING WILL                
LIMIT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON NOV 17 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
FOCUS OF FORECAST TODAY IS THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH                
THE STATE TODAY AND THE PROSPECT OF SEEING THE SUN ON TUESDAY.                  
ANALYSIS AT 9Z SHOWING BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                  
NATION WITH SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE MN BORDER. MAJOR EFFECTS               
OF THIS WAVE IS ITS ENHANCEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF LAKE               
SUPERIOR. SHOWERS LAST EVENING LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING OVER               
THE LAKE...THOUGH PAST HOUR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE AT IWD              
AND 3 TO 4 MILES AT ARV. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED                 
CAPES GREATER THAN 600 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING TREND                
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN REDUCING                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR ONCE MORE ADVECTS IN. STAYED WITH 2               
TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH HEAVIEST EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND NOON.                  
ELSEWHERE HAVE STAYED WITH EVENING SHIFTS THOUGHTS OF ADDING SNOW               
SHOWERS TO TODAYS FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF CWA.  LLVL                          
LAPSE RATES RATHER STEEP AHEAD OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE                   
REFLECTION. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION              
EXPECTED. THUS LOW POPS.                                                        
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUE              
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FOR SHORT TIME BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS                    
RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEMLATE IN DAY TUE.                                     
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                       
THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF SHOWED FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE                    
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHORT WAVE WAS                    
EXPECTED TO REACH WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW                    
TRAVELS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE GONE WITH               
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE                 
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STRONGEST...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE A LITTLE                    
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. STRONG              
COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPERATURES               
WERE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE -10C TO -17C RANGE OVER WESTERN                  
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WATER                     
TEMPERATURES THERE AROUND 5C TO 7C SO LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER                
STEEP AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR AREAS IN THE LAKE                      
SUPERIOR SNOWBELT. WINDS THEN BACK ENOUGH BY 00Z SATURDAY TO KEEP               
LAKE EFFECT AWAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION BEGINS OVER LAKE                      
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A MIX OF GUIDANCE AND HPC FORECAST.               
AVIATION...VFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM AUW TO GRB...WITH VISBYS                      
DROPPING AT TIMES INTO MVFR RANGE TODAY IN SHSN AS TROF MOVES                   
THROUGH REGION. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO REDUCE CIGS/VISBYS INTO                  
MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF DAY OVER FAR NORTH...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS                
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS                     
EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
WIZ005.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
330 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND                      
VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER EASTERN            
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH                
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS GETTING                
LEFT BEHIND AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN IL...ALONG WITH ITS             
FGEN BAND.  THAT LEAVES NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING AT            
THE SURFACE AND UNDER A WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU FIELD.  SCT FLURRIES               
HAVE BEEN NOTED BY SURFACE OBS AND RADAR...MOST COMMON OVER THE                 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LOW LEVEL NW FLOW CONTINUES                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ORGANIZED BANDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN                
UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT STILL RATHER UNORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN PART             
OF THE LAKE AS A RESULT OF REALLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR (DEWPOINTS NORTH            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 10F).  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE                  
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND A SHOT OF              
COLD AIR DROPS SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THEREFORE...LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH                 
TOMORROW.                                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING... BUT              
CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY CHANGE THAT MUCH OVER WESTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL WINDS DO VEER TO A MORE FAVORABLE 340                      
DIRECTION...BUT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AND BL MOISTURE STAY                      
RELATIVELY STEADY.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW             
MORNING WHEN A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA SENDING A                  
MODEST POCKET OF MID-LEVEL FORCING OVER THE LAKE.  IN                           
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO HINT AT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS             
WAVE...WHICH WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ERODE SOME OF THIS            
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.  COLD ADVECTION ALSO IMPROVES...INCREASING                   
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO THE LOW 20S AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO AROUND            
600 J/KG ACCORDING TO NAM BUFKIT.  THIS SUPPORT DIMINISHES BY                   
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NEARLY DUE NORTH AND            
BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.  LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALSO RETURN AND               
THEREFORE...PLENTY OF SIGNALS TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF LES PM                  
TOMORROW.  ADDING IT ALL UP...BELIEVE AN ADVISORY IS STILL WARRANTED            
WITH 24 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS FROM 00Z MON TO 00Z TUE OF 2 TO 5                    
INCHES...AND AN ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER NORTHERN    
VILAS COUNTY.                                                                   
NOT NEARLY AS MUCH TO TALK ABOUT OUTSIDE THE SNOW BELT.  LINGERING              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT FLURRIES            
TONIGHT.  INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH DOES IMPROVE FORCING            
AND MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL               
DRY AIR WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL                    
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...THINK THIS IS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD                  
FLURRIES EVENT...AND THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD TO COME                
BY.  LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 20S SE.  HIGHS                    
TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 30S SE.                    
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. NORTHWEST UPPER                  
FLOW WILL KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MODEL                    
DIFFERENCES ARE VERY APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT                 
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS TO BE              
PREFERRED BY NCEP FORECASTERS. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE               
MODELS DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING WHICH              
IS CLOSE WHAT WHAT NCEP HAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE              
NORTH. THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEGIN AGAIN IN THE NORTHCENTRAL PART              
OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. &&                               
.AVIATION...BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SW WISCONSIN WILL SLIDE SE THIS             
AFTERNOON AND MISS THE TAF SITES.  BUT CIGS WILL BOUNCE AROUND                  
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AT CWA/AUW FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND               
POTENTIALLY INTO TONIGHT. AT RHI...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL               
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW WHEN A                
RENEWED SURGE OF COLD AIR AND NORTH TO NORTH WINDS MOVE IN. IFR                 
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS.  AT GRB...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PREVAILING.                           
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MPC/RDM                                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1026 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...13Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND LATEST IR/WV/RADAR SHOW A              
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS SE WISCONSIN WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK                  
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. FRONTOGENETICAL LIGHT               
SNOW BAND...ON THE NE FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL                                    
CIRCULATION...CONTINUES TO MOVE SE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND IS                  
JUST GRAZING THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW LAKE                 
EFFECT CONTINUES TO SEND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN                
WI WHILE JUST WIDELY SCT FLURRIES RESIDE EVERYWHERE ELSE.                       
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FGEN BAND WILL                 
SHIFT SE TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY LIGHT                 
SNOW CONFINED TO WOOD AND MAYBE MARATHON AND PORTAGE COUNTIES.                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER                  
VILAS COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A MORE FAVORABLE                      
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK                  
GOOD FOR TONIGHT AND NO ADJUSTMENT IN THE HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED               
AT THIS TIME. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST                 
PACKAGE. BUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF NE WISCONSIN...HAVE BACKED OFF ON              
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WORDING...REDUCING IT TO ONLY SCT FLURRIES.               
LASTLY...HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
NW FLOW REGIME CONTINUES OVER UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE                 
WEST AND TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING            
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. ASSOC SFC             
LOW NR JAMESTOWN...DROPPING SOUTHEAST. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES              
BREAKING OUT ALONG LINE FROM MSP TO BJI IN AREA OF WAA                          
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AHEAD OF SFC WAVE. MODELS                       
CONSISTENT WEAKENING LOW AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF STATE.                
WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THOUGHTS FOR POPS TODAY...WITH BEST                 
CHANCES OVER CENTRAL WI.                                                        
SHORT WAVE TO USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH LLVL WINDS SHIFTING BACK                 
TO THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LES OFF LAKE               
SUPERIOR. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WILL RUN FROM                 
00Z MON TO 00Z TUE WITH THOUGHTS OF MOST SNOW FALLING BETWEEN THE               
06Z TO 18Z PERIOD WHEN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY/LIFT INTERSECTS                 
ZONE OF BEST SNOW GROWTH. LES MAY ALSO GET ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM               
NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH STATE EARLY MON. SURFACE                  
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER MON WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWERING                   
INVERSION HEIGHTS. LES FLOW CHART SUGGESTS UP TO 6 INCHES FOR PERIOD.           
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN HOLDING TEMPS UP...ABOVE GUIDANCE. HAVE                  
TRENDED TOWARDS MAV GUIDANCE MODERATING IT SOMEWHAT.                            
LONG TERM...MON NGT THRU NXT SAT. MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON                    
TRYING TO TIME SNOW CHCS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR                 
ADDL LK EFFECT SNOWS FOR NRN WI AT MID-WEEK.                                    
INITIAL LK EFFECT CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TURN UNFAVORABLE MON NGT AS               
A LRG AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS. AN INFLUX                
OF DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH WNDS STARTING TO BACK WL SHOVE THE LK                
EFFECT BANDS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM N-CNTRL WI. NEED TO              
CARRY A HI CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY THRU MON EVENING AND THEN TAPER               
SNOW DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES AFT MIDNGT. THE REST OF NE WI WL                   
REMAIN DRY AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVRNGT...THIS SHOULD                  
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE LKSHR                    
AREAS.                                                                          
THE HI PRES MOVS ACROSS WI ON TUE AND WL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT AMT               
OF SUNSHINE THRU THE DAY. SOME LATE AFTERNOON HI CLDS MAY PUSH                  
TOWARD CNTRL WI AS RETURN FLOW DVLPS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MAKES A               
PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS. EVEN THE RETURN OF THE SUN WL NOT                
BRING MUCH WARMTH TO NE WI AS MAX TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE                
30S.                                                                            
MDLS AGREE ON BRINGING A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WRN GREAT               
LKS TUE NGT...BUT DIFFER ON BOTH SPD AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW.              
ON ONE HAND...YOU HAVE THE FASTER ECWMF/CANADIAN/UKMET WHICH BRING              
THE SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS BY 12Z              
WED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC LOW                
STILL OVR MB AND THE CDFNT OVR THE PLAINS. THE GFS WAS MORE                     
DIPLOMATIC WITH ITS SOLN IN BETWEEN THE OTHER MDLS. DUE TO MEAN                 
FLOW TRYING TO DEAMPLIFY...FEEL THE FASTER SOLN IS CORRECT AND                  
EXPECT THE CDFNT TO REACH CNTRL WI BY 12Z WED. THE RATHER STG WAA               
PRECEDING THE CDFNT OVR WI TUE NGT MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF SOME                 
LGT SNOW ACROSS NE WI ALTHO BETTER CHCS SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE MI               
BORDER WHERE THE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST. PREV FCST HAD A PRETTY                
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITN...SO LITTLE CHG MADE.                                  
THE SFC LOW AND CDFNT TO COMPLETE THEIR PASSAGE THRU WI WED                     
MORNING WITH A WND SHIFT TO THE NW AND CAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY SNOW SHWR OR FLURRY IS PSBL                
WITH THE FROPA...PREFER TO FOCUS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LK EFFECT              
SNOW SHWRS OVR NRN WI FOR WED AFTERNOON. 8H TEMPS DROP TO AROUND                
-13C BY 00Z THU OVR LK SUPERIOR AND AS TRAJS BECOME MORE                        
FAVORABLE...EXPECT THE SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE.                 
VILAS CNTY AGAIN WL BE SUSCEPTIBLE AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO HI CHC               
FOR NOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS PSBL. THE LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS                 
SHOULD THEN CONT TO IMPACT NRN WI RIGHT ON THRU THU AS WNDS REMAIN              
NW...DELTA-T VALUES RESIDE IN THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S AND LK-INDUCED              
CAPES CLIMB TO > 400 J/KG. MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE                          
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES TO FALL                 
OVR THE FAVORED AREAS OF VILAS CNTY. DO ANTICIPATE THE LK EFFECT                
TO DIMINISH A BIT LTR ON THU AS HI PRES BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON THE               
RGN. THE REST OF NE WI WL STAY MOSTLY CLDY WED NGT...BUT SOME                   
BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THU AS THE HI PRES                      
APPROACHES.                                                                     
THE LK EFFECT SNOWS FOR NRN WI ARE PROGGED TO END THU NGT AS THE                
HI PRES PUSHES INTO WI AND TRAJS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. QUIET                      
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH THE HI PRES IN CONTROL...YET TEMPS STILL A              
BIT COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. MDLS HAVE SOME MINOR TIMING                         
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE NXT PAC SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE                 
ARE ENUF SIMILIARITIES SUCH THAT CHC POPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY NXT              
SAT IF TRENDS PERSIST.                                                          
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...TYPICAL NOVEMBER CLOUDINESS CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY                  
VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED...LOCALLY LOWERING IN SNOW SHOWERS TO                  
IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVER CENTRAL TODAY AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
MONDAY FOR WIZ005.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1243 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED                 
BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...             
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES               
AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER THE 2 HOURS                
OR SO BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND                     
DEWPOINTS TO FALL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPERATURES                       
INITIATING A STEADY DECLINE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO                   
LOWER THEM 1-2 DEGS AROUND THE METTER...REIDSVILLE AND LUDOWICI                 
AREAS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS. LOCATIONS WELL                   
INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT               
LOCAL FROST TOOLS INDICATE NO CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN THE DRYING                
SURFACE LAYER AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS. IN ALL VERY FEW CHANGES               
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.                                                        
LAKE WINDS...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON LAKE MOULTRIE THIS              
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL SURGE HARD BY                  
MIDNIGHT THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. 850MB TEMPERATURES             
AROUND -5C COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WILL                 
YIELD VERY FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD HELP SURGE                  
WINDS SOLIDLY INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL              
CONTINUE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...STRONG COLD ADVECTION...FEATURING A                       
DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE              
-5C TO -9C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE               
40S AT MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM HIGH                          
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 18 WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY AT                 
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT.                                                         
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF                
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS                
MAY PUSH FREEZING CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. THUS...ISSUED A FREEZE               
WATCH FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPTING ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS                 
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED DUE TO AN EARLIER                   
FREEZING EVENT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S                  
ACROSS MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S              
ALONG THE COAST. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 19 WILL BE                
CHALLENGED.                                                                     
DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENT N/NW WINDS SHOULD               
GREATLY LIMIT/PREVENT FROST FORMATION.                                          
LAKE WIND...OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY                      
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES...OVER LAKE MOULTRIE TUESDAY               
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PER 12Z MODEL TRENDS DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT                 
RELAXATION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ADJUSTED THE               
END TIME FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH SAT...                
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON THU. HIGH PRES WILL                  
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE STRONG              
CAA THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE LOW-MID 50S WED                
FOLLOWED BY MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WED NIGHT. SOME             
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THU AHEAD OF A COLD FROPA DUE              
FOR LATE DAY THU TO POSSIBLY THU EVE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME               
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 60S WHICH            
IS STILL SOME 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE THE MODEST INCREASE             
IN THE MOISTURE COLUMN...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA             
IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT WITH AN E              
COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE DEVELOPING...ALLOWING ANOTHER                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRES AIRMASS TO SLIDE INTO THE ERN CONUS. MIN TEMPS               
WILL AGAIN DROP TO THE 30S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER             
60S...BUT THE CAVEAT IS THAT THESE TEMPS COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE              
IF CAA IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. TEMPS MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND            
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT ANOTHER             
COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY AND GIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF                  
COLDER AIR.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH SITES.               
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY NNW WINDS WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WINDS               
WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS               
INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT DIE OFF                
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10 KT.                    
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF STRONG                
COLD FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS                  
INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR LOOK GOOD. SUSPECT THERE MAY BE 4-5                 
HOUR PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE HIGH              
RESOLUTION SST DATA SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER               
60S TO LOWER 70S BETWEEN 40 AND 60 NM OUT. RUC AND NAM ADJUSTED                 
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUPPORT VIGOROUS MIXING PROFILES OVERNIGHT               
AS INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH THESE WARMER WATERS.               
WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 5 AM...AFTER WHICH              
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.                                     
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION/OVER                
WATER INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                      
AS CAA SHUTS DOWN BY WED MORNING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DROP               
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY DAYBREAK WED. THE ONLY                 
CONCERN IS SEAS...AND ATTM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 6              
FT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL BE              
SLOWER TO EXPERIENCE THE DROP UNDER THE SOLID OFFSHORE FLOW SO WILL             
MAINTAIN THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. AS HIGH PRES MOVES            
ACRS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT...SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS                
WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE THU               
INTO THU NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA ALONG WITH IT THAT WILL                  
INCREASE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. ATTM...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA             
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACH THAT OF THE CAA EXPECTED FOR TUE SO HAVE            
KEPT SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FT AND WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT.             
SHOULD THE MODELS AND TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...THEN SCA HEADLINES             
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR FRI                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR TRANQUIL CONDS BY THEN.                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARISE BOTH TUE AND WED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS               
SETTLING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR                   
TUE...RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 25                         
PERCENT...RANGING FROM 24-27 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IN                 
THE UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDED TO THAT WILL BE WIND                   
SPEEDS NEAR TO AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON.                            
HOWEVER...AFTER CONSULTING USERS IN BOTH SC AND GA...FUEL                       
MOISTURES AT BOTH THE 10 AND 100 HOUR TIME RANGES ARE RUNNING                   
MOIST ENOUGH FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS THAT NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WX                  
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED. FOR WED... WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER BUT RH              
LEVELS WILL BE DRIER...POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. SINCE                
ONLY THE RH CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON WED...NO ADDITIONAL FIRE                
WX PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED. FOR BOTH TUE AND WED...WILL RUN WITH                
THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES IN THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.                
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...                                  
CHS...49/1951                                                                   
CHL...48/1951                                                                   
SAV...45/1891                                                                   
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...                                                    
CHS...27/1949                                                                   
CHL...32/1951                                                                   
SAV...27/1951                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR               
     GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141.                                                
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR               
     SCZ042>045-047>051.                                                        
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-          
     352-354.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
321 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
215 AM CST                                                                      
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS BACKED UP INTO PORTER AND                     
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA. NAM12 AND RUC13 MODEL               
OUTPUT SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS. VERY COLD MID                  
LEVEL AIR FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST                    
ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS ALLOWED CLOUD TOPS OF LAKE                   
EFFECT BAND APPROACH 20K FT IN DEPTH. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
LAKE EFFECT IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AS               
FAR WAST AS THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE.                                            
UPGRADED PORTER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND INTRODUCED FOR                
LAKE COUNTY WHERE INTENSE SNOWFALL EXPECTED UNDER THE CORE OF                   
THE SNOW BAND DURING THE PREDAWN THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE                 
BAND SHIFTS BACK EASTWARD AND WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES               
THE DEPTH OF THE LAKE EFFECT AND THUS ITS INTENSITY. A LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWTON AND JASPER WHERE                  
SOME HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY TO STRETCH SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE                    
RIVER.                                                                          
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1050 PM CDT                                                                     
0600 UTC TAFS...SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION                
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT LED TO THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER                 
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.                  
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE              
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ORD/MDW SITES WILL LIKELY BE PICKING UP              
ON THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY                                 
MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR UNTIL THE UPPER                  
LEVEL JET USHERS IN SOME CIRRUS INTO THE MIDWEST BY AFTERNOON                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SWINGS               
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON                
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                                                 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.                           
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
314 AM CST                                                                      
A LARGE HIGH WAS OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW               
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS PART OF THE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER LOW                 
WAS AT 38 NORTH LATITUDE AND 74 WEST LONGITUDE. THIS LOW...OFF THE              
COAST OF NEW JERSEY...AND THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING THE NORTH WIND ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO                     
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH                   
DAKOTA AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL              
MANITOBA AND SPREAD SOUTH TO OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT NO FREEZING SPRAY              
THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.              
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 PM     
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
219 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR LAKE EFFECT                                            
215 AM CST                                                                      
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS BACKED UP INTO PORTER AND                     
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA. NAM12 AND RUC13 MODEL               
OUTPUT SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS. VERY COLD MID                  
LEVEL AIR FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST                    
ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS ALLOWED CLOUD TOPS OF LAKE                   
EFFECT BAND APPROACH 20K FT IN DEPTH. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
LAKE EFFECT IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AS               
FAR WAST AS THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE.                                            
UPGRADED PORTER TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND INTRODUCED FOR                
LAKE COUNTY WHERE INTENSE SNOWFALL EXPECTED UNDER THE CORE OF                   
THE SNOW BAND DURING THE PREDAWN THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE                 
BAND SHIFTS BACK EASTWARD AND WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES               
THE DEPTH OF THE LAKE EFFECT AND THUS ITS INTENSITY. A LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWTON AND JASPER WHERE                  
SOME HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY TO STRETCH SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE                    
RIVER.                                                                          
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1050 PM CDT                                                                     
0600 UTC TAFS...SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION                
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT LED TO THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER                 
THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.                  
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE              
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE ORD/MDW SITES WILL LIKELY BE PICKING UP              
ON THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY                                 
MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR UNTIL THE UPPER                  
LEVEL JET USHERS IN SOME CIRRUS INTO THE MIDWEST BY AFTERNOON                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE SWINGS               
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON                
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                                                 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.                           
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
410 PM CST                                                                      
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER                    
BAFFIN BAY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A LARGE...SPRAWLING                 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS BUILDING SOUTH AND                    
EAST...AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER IOWA TONIGHT. AS THIS LARGE HIGH               
PRESSURE AREA SPREADS EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY                         
NIGHT...WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY                
AND TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE              
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND                    
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS.                                           
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.              
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 PM     
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1216 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST                                                
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU LWR MI AND SFC HIGH             
PRES BUILDING E FROM WRN MN WILL SPELL A WEAKENING TREND IN LES                 
OVERNIGHT. 00Z CWPL/KINL SOUNDINGS SHOW EXPECTED LOWERING INVERSIONS            
NICELY WITH KINL SOUNDING REPRESENTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT               
FOR LES WITH LOWER INVERSION AROUND 865MB/4.4KFT MSL AND A WELL                 
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO HAS ALSO SHOWN             
A RAPID DIMINISHING OF LES OFF LAKE NIPIGON THIS EVENING. SO...GOING            
FCST OF ENDING ADVY FAR W OVERNIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVER THE W...               
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BTWN ONTONAGON (NW WIND) AND UPPER ENTRANCE OF            
PORTAGE CANAL (NE WIND) HAS BEEN FOCUSING HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING             
IN FAR NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE NE OF ONTONAGON...AROUND THE                 
HOUGHTON COUNTY LINE. THAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HRS. TO THE              
E...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR                 
LES...LAND BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP STRONGER TONIGHT UNDER DECREASING             
SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME AND COOLER INTERIOR. LOCAL HIGH RES WRF-ARW AND            
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z RUC SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING THRU            
THE NIGHT INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI...BECOMING MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED BTWN             
MARQUETTE AND DEERTON BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL WORK TO OFFSET            
THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LOCALLY. DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA WILL ALSO              
BENEFIT FROM PRECONDITIONING OFF LAKE NIPIGON. GOING FCST HAS THIS              
COVERED WELL...SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES ARE WARRANTED FOR THE CNTRL               
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. FARTHER E...IT APPEARS SOME DECENT SNOW IS            
FALLING IN PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY THOUGH PERSISTENT BANDING IS NOT             
EVIDENT. SINCE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO SHOULD VEER WINDS A BIT MORE             
NE OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...-SHSN SHOULD TEND TO                
DIMINISH WITH BULK OF HEAVIER SHSN SHIFTING W OF LUCE COUNTY DURING             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                                               
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN             
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA AND                  
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE               
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A 120-140 KT JET AROUND 200MB EXTENDS FROM                   
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MN. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THE MOST            
IMPORTANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV CROSSING NE WI. 12Z             
INL SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SITUATED SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SHRTWV BACK             
AT 12Z...SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 600MB...             
ALONG WITH TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW -10C THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COLD AIR            
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE                   
RUNNING 5-6C. BANDS WERE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER             
ERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
SNOWFALL RATES WERE 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE                   
SHORELINE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF            
THE WARMER LAKE PRODUCING MORE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES COMPARED TO THE               
DENDRITES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING                    
DISRUPTED THE BANDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE SUN IS               
SETTING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE A SINGLE            
BAND FORMING FROM LAKE NIPIGON...THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...TO             
MARQUETTE AND INTO NW LOWER MI. THIS IS DUE TO A NNE FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR IMPINGING ON NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA. TO THE WEST...1037MB HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE                    
PLAINS. DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH IS GRADUALLY MAKING IN ROADS INTO              
THE WESTERN CWA...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F AT CMX AND IWD. THIS            
DRIER AIR HAS KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT FROM BEING AS HEAVY OVER WESTERN             
UPPER MI. LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A SHRTWV COMING INTO THE NW BRITISH              
COLUMBIA COAST...WHICH IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNT WISE...LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN             
ALGER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A FOOT SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH            
A REPORT FROM TRENARY AROUND 19 INCHES. MORE REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON             
THE LATEST ARBLSRMQT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)... ISSUED AT 432 PM EST                       
AS THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS...IT WILL PUSH THE SW CANADA RIDGE TOWARDS THE GREAT                      
LAKES...MORE FLATTENING IT OUT WITH TIME. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE                
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM                
HERE. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY            
TUESDAY...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO END WEST TO EAST. UNTIL THEN...               
TONIGHT APPEARS NOW OF MOSTLY MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS COMING OFF LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NE WI SHRTWV AND                
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE               
BANDS COULD BECOME STATIONARY...WHICH MEANS UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS IN            
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES WITH THE LONGER FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR            
COULD END UP WITH 5 INCHES OF 20-25 TO 1 SNOW. IN ADDITION...SINCE              
WE ARE GOING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM WHEN LAND BREEZES ARE                     
FAVORED...A STRONGER SINGLE BAND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
THEREFORE...AT LEAST THE WARNINGS FOR MQT..ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES SEEM REASONABLE. FOR WESTERN UPPER MI...DRIER AIR SHOULD               
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM...THOUGH EXTRA CONVERGENCE IN THE             
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTY AREA EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR A             
LITTLE EXTRA SNOW AND THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. GOING LOW                
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AS INVERSIONS LOWER...WINDS BACK              
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH              
OF THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH               
GRADUAL WARMING OF 850MB TEMPS...FROM AROUND -14C NOW TO -12C TUE               
AFTN...TOMORROW SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.                       
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
SFC RDG AXIS WL BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AT 00Z TUE...BUT WAD CLD WL BE             
SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV SPILLING OVER THE RDG IN              
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL BE INITIALLY DRY...THE ISENTROPIC             
LIFT SHOWN ON THE 280-295K SFCS/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC APPEARS                     
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF              
OF THE FA WHERE PARCELS WL HAVE A LONGER PD OF UPGLIDE TO SATURATE              
AND WHERE FLOW OFF LK MI WL ACCENTUATE MOISTENING ACRS THE ERN ZNS.             
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS. IN FACT...              
NAM/GFS QPF IS QUITE A BIT HIER OVER THE FAR ERN ZNS WHERE THERE IS             
LIKELY TO BE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHSN (H85 TEMPS FCST ARND               
-9C VS WATER TEMP ARND 8C) AFT 06Z IN SSW FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF LK            
MI. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS FOR ERY ALSO SHOW AN ALMOST 10K FT DEPTH OF              
LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME                
FRAME. ELECTED TO BUMP UP POP TO HI CHC/LIKELY IN THIS AREA ABV MOS             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
CLIPPER LO PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z THU. POTENTIAL               
FOR LK ENHANCED SHSN WL LINGER ON WED MRNG OVER THE FAR E...BUT                 
VEERING FLOW TO W LATER IN THE DAY WL END THE THREAT. LATER SHIFTS              
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN ZNS BEFORE THE             
LK ENHANCED SN DIMINISHES THERE. WL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO. OTRW...             
THREAT FOR LARGER SCALE PCPN WL END W-E WL LOSS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT              
AND MID LVL DRY SURGE UNDER UPR JET AXIS THAT WL CUT OFF LLVL MSTR              
FM DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF CYC NW FLOW LATE IN               
THE DAY WL CAUSE SOME LES TO DVLP OVER THE W...BUT AIRMASS DOES NOT             
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD UNTIL LATE FOR SGNFT LES (H85 TEMP ARND -6C            
OVER WRN LK SUP AT 18Z FALLS TO -10C AT 00Z THU) WITH RELATIVELY                
SHALLOW MSTR BLO DGZ.                                                           
EXPECT INCRSG LES ON WED NGT/THU WITH STRENGTHENING NNW FLOW BTWN               
DEPARTING CLIPPER LO AND ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO SCNTRL CAN DRIVING            
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C OVER LK SUP BY 00Z FRI. MODELS SHOW H925                
WINDS BTWN 330-350 OR SO AND UP TO 30 KTS...WL HIT THE POPS UP HIEST            
IN THOSE AREAS FVRD BY THAT WIND DIRECTION. AT SOME POINT...A                   
HEADLINE FOR LES WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THESE FVRD AREAS WITH                
FCST SDNGS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. WL MENTION IN             
THE HWO FOR NOW. WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS ON THU...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL             
RECOVERY IN TEMP.                                                               
ONGOING LES/GUSTY WINDS ON THU NGT WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH W-E ON FRI              
WITH APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE            
QUICKER 00Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING ARRIVAL OF               
RDG AXIS FM THE W AND ENDING OF THE LES. AS NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV                 
APRCHS FM THE W ON FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...A STRONG WAD PATTERN WL SET            
UP ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE NW OF DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS. WL CARRY               
CHC POPS FOR -SN...WITH THE HIER POPS OVER NRN LK SUP/THE ERN FA                
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LO PROGGED ACRS SRN ONTARIO AND WHERE THERE              
MAY BE SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL END ON               
SUN WITH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND TRANSITION TO LES INTO MON WITH COLD            
AIR INFUSION (00Z ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMP FALLING TO ARND -15C BY 12Z              
MON) IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER LO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CIGS SHOULD TREND DOWN TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AS              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS WITH APPROACH OF HIGH PRES RIDGE. AS                
WINDS BACK LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR            
VIS IN -SHSN AS FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE IMPROVES. LINGERING -SHSN                 
SHOULD THEN END EARLY AFTN AS AIRMASS MODERATES/SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE             
ARRIVES. AS WINDS BACK SW LATE AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP               
WITH LOSS OF OVERWATER FETCH.                                                   
AT KSAW...UNDER NRLY WINDS...EXPECT WIDE SWINGS IN VIS/CIGS AS                  
LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND UPSLOPING RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOW                 
SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE PREVAILING                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT             
IN PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 10Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
TO SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR. LATE IN THE NIGHT...LOWERING                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE START OF BACKING WINDS WILL LEAD TO                
DIMINISHING -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING THE RULE. FURTHER               
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS BACK W.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING            
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...ANOTHER            
LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED             
TO CROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE TO            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY...A                 
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS                
COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD BACK INTO UPPER               
MICHIGAN...BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BELOW GALES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUE MIZ005-006-085.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUE MIZ002-009.           
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUE MIZ013.                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AJ                                             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
356 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.                
USED RUC TEMPERATURES TO UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS IN THE VERY NEAR                   
TERM AS MODEL BEST DEPICTS CURRENT WARMING TREND. THEN...SHIFTED                
TO MAV/MET BLEND AS THERE EXISTS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM.                
FAVORED GFS QPF SINCE IT SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPCOMING                 
CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS TO WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY                
AFTER THE FIRST CLIPPER PASSAGE.                                                
TODAY WILL BE WARMER AND BREEZY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW 850 HPA LOW                  
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSIVE                  
WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH. 24 HOUR 850 HPA TEMPERATURE CHANGE              
EXPECTED TO BE UPWARDS 0F +10 DEGREES C...RESULTING IN MAXIMUM                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AT THE                 
SAME TIME...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF               
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE                
925-850 HPA LAYER...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT BOUNDARY                
LAYER MIXING. NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY                
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND                 
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TODAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS DEEPEST               
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOW AND CANADIAN BORDER.                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CLIPPER SYSTEM                
MOVES EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS               
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS SUCH...THERE IS A SLIGHT                    
CHANCE FOR -SHSN MAINLY ACROSS ROSEAU...LAKE OF THE WOODS AND                   
BELTRAMI COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES..DID INCLUDE               
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM 06               
TO 12 UTC TONIGHT. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LAYER                  
FROM 700-800 HPA...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING FOR MIXED                   
PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.                                                   
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT ON BACK-                 
SIDE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT INSTABILITY SNOW                       
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE                
DAY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...ONE INCH OR LESS.                
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL                
PASSAGE.                                                                        
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO               
MOVE EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC                  
TONIGHT. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS                
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.               
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM               
25 TO 30 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF               
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR                 
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KBJI OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN 12                 
UTC TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROGERS                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
328 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                   
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND BUILDING SLOWLY EAST. AT THE                      
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP A BIT AS HIGH                    
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. ACROSS                
WESTERN CWA WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHILE ACROSS THE EAST               
THEY ARE APPROACHING 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME NEARLY                    
STEADY OR HAVE RISEN A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS WARMER               
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.                                            
IMPRESSIVE WAA SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS                   
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. FOR EXAMPLE...06Z                 
NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -2 C ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AT                
12Z THIS MORNING...BUT WARMS UP TO +11 C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING...WILL BE ABLE TO MIX WARMER AIR                
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL THEREFORE SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH A                     
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SEEING 40S AND 50S. ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                 
CWA WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THE LONGEST TODAY...MAY ONLY              
SEE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                 
BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH                    
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE              
EAST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 00Z AND               
THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT THEN SLOWLY               
RISE TONIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE                 
WARM FRONT. THIS PLAYS OUT IN THE TEMP GRIDS ALSO. THEN FOR                     
WEDNESDAY...CAA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH               
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. CONSTRUCTED GRIDS TO SHOW A LATE MORNING OR                
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE THEN AS CAA BECOMES MORE                       
SUBSTANTIAL...SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY FALL DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST PUSH OF CAA OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. NAM/GFS TRY TO                  
SPIT OUT .01 QPF HERE AND THERE ACROSS EASTERN SD...SUGGESTING                  
PERHAPS FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SREF PROBS OF .01                  
SHOW NOTHING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT BUFKIT                     
SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT GFS                   
SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT SNOW AT KABR AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH NEAR                     
SATURATION IN SNOW GROWTH REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ONLY A                
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB...BUT FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE                 
RATES BELOW THIS SHALLOW LAYER. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT EITHER              
BUT THERE IS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN WHICH COULD HELP TO                
SCOUR OUT A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SCT FLURRIES FOR                  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES.                      
.LONG TERM...00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                          
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH SORTING OUT MODEL               
SOLNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                 
MODELS STILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN TWO CAMPS FOR THE EXTENDED                     
FORECAST. THE GFS/UKMET/DGEX SOLN ALL POINT TOWARD STRONGER WAVE                
CRASHING OVER THE WRN CONUS RIDGE...CLOSED 5H/7H LOWS DROPPING                  
INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. THE EC/CANADIAN/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE                 
WITH THIS WAVE CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE...BUT KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE               
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRAVERSES TO THE EAST. THE EC IS NOW TRENDED              
TO A BIT MORE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH...MORE INTO ND THAN                         
CANADA...AND THE LATEST RUN NOW PAINTS A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE ERN              
DAKOTAS FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY                
PARTICULAR SOLN...HAVE JUST KEPT WITH PERSISTANCE AND LEFT THE                  
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW. ALSO INTERESTING IS THAT THE EC IS NOW                    
DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO BEGIN NEXT                 
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A ZONAL FLOW APPEARANCE ACROSS THE               
NRN TIER STATES.                                                                
TEMP WISE...THE MODELS DO AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BEING               
OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SPEC                    
HUMIDITIES LEANING TO MOCLEAR SKIES...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD                
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY NIGHT                  
LOWS BY A CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE STUCK PRETTY                 
CLOSE TO INHERITED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS DUE TO UNCERTAINITY IN THE                
MODELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD FOR ALL               
TERMINAL SITES. SCT-BKN080-100 CLOUDS WILL DRIFT NW TO SE ACROSS                
THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1105 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO CHANGES...VFR THRU PERIOD. CURRENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY               
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.   84                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
910 PM                                                                          
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED              
FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS                  
BEHIND IT TONIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS/RUC FORECASTS. THIS WILL                
KEEP AIR MIXED UP WITH MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS                  
NIGHTS. RAISED LOWS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...OTHERWISE CHANGES                  
WERE MAINLY COSMETIC. TR.92                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
514 PM                                                                          
VFR THRU PERIOD. WIND SHIFT TO NORTH EXPECTED METROPLEX AROUND 02Z              
AND WACO 05Z. BY TUESDAY AFTN SFC RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND FLOW WILL             
SWITCH BACK SOUTH.   84                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008/                         
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR PLACE A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE                   
FROM LUBBOCK TO WICHITA FALLS TO JUST NORTH OF PARIS. TEMPERATURES              
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S...WITH 50S AND 60S                  
NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE VIRTUALLY THE                
SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR                 
AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE REGION SO HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE                   
AFFECTED MUCH. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EFFECTIVE               
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.                       
BY TOMORROW A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS...WITH                  
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL               
RETURN WEDNESDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE                  
LOWER 70S. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.                 
MODELS INDICATE THAT A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT                
OF CANADA ON THURSDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS                  
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE RESULTANT FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE GFS.                
GIVEN THE DENSE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF.              
IN ADDITION...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE                  
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN WIDE VARIATIONS IN               
TEMPERATURES FROM RUN TO RUN. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE              
NUMBERS CLOSER THAN THE MAV MOS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST.              
NORTH TEXAS WILL STAY IN NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE                     
WEEKEND. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH                 
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY              
A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN              
MONDAY AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...               
SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY. SH/13                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  63  47  75  54 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
WACO, TX              40  65  45  73  54 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
PARIS, TX             38  57  38  68  47 /   0   0   0   0  10                  
DENTON, TX            40  62  44  74  49 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          40  60  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
DALLAS, TX            46  61  47  72  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
TERRELL, TX           41  60  43  71  52 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         41  62  42  72  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            42  67  45  73  53 /   0   0   0   0   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1148 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WX ADVSY TO EXPIRE. SATL HAS SHOWN            
A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING TREND IN THE CLOUD TOPS OVER WSTRN LK                 
SUPERIOR AND NC WI...AND SFC OBS INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW                    
SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGERING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REMAINING LES SHOULD              
END OVERNIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS WEST AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES                 
WITH THE SFC RIDGE.                                                             
KIECKBUSCH                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON NOV 17 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                             
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.              
MODEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE WITHIN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER            
TROUGH AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEPER                    
MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS HELPED PERSISTENT          
NNW OR NORTH LAKE EFFECT BANDS KEEP THEIR INTENSITY THROUGH                     
MID-AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR             
AND THE SURFACE OBS WHICH HAVE ENHANCED THESE SNOW BANDS.  ONE BAND             
DROPPED 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM VILAS THROUGH LINCOLN AND LANGLADE                   
COUNTIES AS THE CONVERGENCE AXIS DROPPED SOUTH.  ANOTHER CONVERGENCE            
AXIS HAS BEEN FEEDING AN ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS EASTER UPPER MICHIGAN            
AND HAS BEEN TRYING MOVE SW TOWARDS THE DOOR PENINSULA.                         
OBVIOUSLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                 
NORTH TO NNW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT                  
CONDITIONS WILL TURN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS THE LONGEVITY OF              
THE BANDS.  IMPRESSIVE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T/S AROUND              
20C WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING 850-700MB DRY (FALLING FROM 70             
TO 40 PCT) AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  WAS ALSO THINKING               
THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO               
(SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 0-7F) WOULD SLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY IMPACT AS OF YET.  THE LONGER                 
FETCHES AS A RESULT OF THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW SEEM TO NEGATING THIS            
FACTOR UNLIKE YESTERDAY.  BUT AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE                   
AREA...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAKE AWHILE TO WIND DOWN...SO HAVE             
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.  THINK              
THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING AND               
ANOTHER HALF INCH OVERNIGHT.                                                    
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO                
FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS THE CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER WISCONSIN WASHES             
OUT AND WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF              
THE OTHER CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAKES IT TO               
THE DOOR PENINSULA...WHICH COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF              
SNOW.  MODEL DATA SUGGEST IT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING                      
WASHINGTON ISLAND BUT HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE              
NIGHT ANYWAY.  LOWS FROM THE LOW TEENS WEST TO LOW 20S EAST.                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NE WISCONSIN TOMORROW WITH MASSIVE HEIGHT             
RISES UNDERWAY ALOFT.  PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CU WILL HANG ON OR                  
DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING             
THE MORNING.  WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER INVADING THE STATE.  HIGHS RANGING FROM THE               
UPPER 20S NW TO THE MIDDLE 30S SE.                                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                       
THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND          
THURSDAY AND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A WINTER       
STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE THE TWO MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS PERIOD.      
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MAY CREATE SUFFICIENT            
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE              
IN THE NORTH. THEN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION               
SETTING UP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THINK THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ADVISORY CRITERIA              
SNOW EVENT IN VILAS COUNTY...AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE                
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD TODAY. THE EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF IS BEING OVERLOOKED FOR NOW...AS                   
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT ALSO LOOKS                 
LIKE THE SURFACE AND 850MB LOWS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT               
SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA...DESPITE THE QPF AMOUNTS PREDICTED BY                
THE ECMWF. SO WILL WAIT AND SEE AND KEEO DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                  
AVIATION...OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
IMPACT RHI THROUGH THE EVENING.  HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW ENHANCED                 
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH DROPPED VSBYS TO 1/4SM AT RHI               
EARLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE.  THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN             
AS IT BECOMES FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WILL HAVE                
POTENTIAL TO DROP VSBYS AT AUW/CWA TO IFR LEVELS MID TO LATE                    
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CENTRAL WI TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS                 
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.  LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE             
AREA...ENDING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE TAF                    
SITES.                                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1028 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE            
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM EST TUESDAY/...                                        
OUR REGION WILL LIE WITHIN A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA TO THE N OF A MID            
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BEST DEPICTED BY THE RUC13 AROUND 700 MB. THIS MID            
LEVEL FORCING...COMBINED WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY             
ENHANCEMENT FROM A NNE FLOW OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD ALLOW SNOW                
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND                  
EXPANDING INTO SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.                     
THUS...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS                
REGION...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE                
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW                        
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP FURTHER S AND SE DURING THE AFTERNOON             
HOURS.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO TEMPS...ALTHOUGH HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS             
A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BASED ON              
CURRENT OBS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                     
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT              
WILL VERY SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT             
OF CANADA REINFORCING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER REGION. A WEAK LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL ITS IDENTITY            
AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE                
DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. BY THURSDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE DEEP                   
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE            
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS               
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ISOLATED              
TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF                  
ALBANY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS            
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT             
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE                   
PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING                  
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STORMIER                     
SCENARIO...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW BARRELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                
GREAT LAKES AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP TO THE             
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS SHOWN SOME RUN TO RUN                    
CONSISTENCY...AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINTING AT POTENTIAL                
SIGNIFICANT QPF. FOR NOW WILL GO SOMEWHAT ABOVE GMOS GUIDANCE AND               
MENTION CHANCE POPS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT DETAILS AS WE             
GET CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL EVENT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH                 
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE              
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THOUGH.             
ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES                  
COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KGFL THIS AFTERNOON.            
HAVE INDICATED A VCSH BETWEEN 18Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED FOR NOW...WITH A               
LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR THIS EVENING            
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY               
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND             
10 KT.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
THU...VFR...SLGT CHC -SHSN AND ASSOC MVFR.                                      
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
|* ADD DISCUSSION HERE. *|                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS REGION FOR THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE              
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                 
MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS DID RECEIVE                  
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS               
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO SNOW             
MELT IS ANTICIPATED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.                          
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...IAA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA                                                              
SHORT TERM...KL/IAA                                                             
LONG TERM...JPV                                                                 
AVIATION...JPV                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...JPV                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
633 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
430 AM CST                                                                      
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAD BACKED UP INTO PORTER AND                     
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE VERY EARLY                
MORNING. LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS              
BAND WELL...KEEPING AXIS OVER PORTER AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES                  
SOUTH ACROSS THE KANKAKEE RIVER INTO JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON             
COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING.                                                   
VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR IN WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT                   
DROPPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS ALLOWED CLOUD              
TOPS OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO APPROACH 20K FT IN DEPTH PER RADAR.             
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT TO PERSIST IN FAR NORTHWEST                
INDIANA WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE ILLINOIS                   
STATE LINE. WEB CAM ON 80/94 AT RIPLEY HAS BEEN SHOWING PERIODS OF              
HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOW COVERED HIGHWAY.                                           
BAND DEPICTED SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE                 
BY LATE MORNING WITH BACKING OF LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND                   
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL FROM THE BAND WILL BE DIMINISHING AS MID                  
LEVEL WARMING CAUSES IN A LOWERING OF THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AND                 
RESULTS IN LESS VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE.                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA...IOWA AND                   
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY               
KEEPING SKIES...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SUNNY FOR A                  
WHILE BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS START TO INVADE FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN                   
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER                
RIDGE.                                                                          
THIS SHORT WAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA              
AND REACH WESTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS                 
BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND THE LOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE ONTARIO-                 
MINNESOTA BORDER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES               
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S              
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS RETURNS                
THE REGION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.                       
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR               
BUT LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAVE FOR LAKE EFFECT AREAS                
OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN INDIANA.                                               
WITH COLD FLOW REGIME BACK...DAYTIME TEMPS RESTRICTED TO ONLY THE               
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST GFS SEEMS TO BE ALONE IN DROPPING               
A SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH A STRIPE OF                
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY                   
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                     
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1200 UTC TAFS...                                                                
612 AM CST                                                                      
THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE AIRPORTS IN NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST                
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE RESULTING FROM THE MOVEMENT OF           
A LARGE HIGH OVER IOWA THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NORTH WIND                 
AT THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO WESTERN               
KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SOUTH WIND AFTER 22 UTC               
AT THE AIRPORTS. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.                
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL BE LARGE                    
ENOUGH TO GIVE 14 TO 19 KNOT WIND LATE MORNING AND EARLY                        
AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A TEN                      
THOUSAND FOOT CEILING BY THIS EVENING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
314 AM CST                                                                      
A LARGE HIGH WAS OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW               
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS PART OF THE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER LOW                 
WAS AT 38 NORTH LATITUDE AND 74 WEST LONGITUDE. THIS LOW...OFF THE              
COAST OF NEW JERSEY...AND THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING THE NORTH WIND ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO                     
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH                   
DAKOTA AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL              
MANITOBA AND SPREAD SOUTH TO OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT NO FREEZING SPRAY              
THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.              
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 PM     
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1012 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE                       
FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE                 
AREA NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IS THIN. SO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A LOT OF               
SUN TODAY. QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR TO THE WEST...WITH 50F AND                   
HIGHER SFC TEMPS AT 10 AM AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL MT. 850MB              
TEMP GRADIENT ALSO EXTREMELY TIGHT...WITH KGGW AT +17C/KBIS AT +4C/             
AND KINL AT -10C. THIS WARM AIR AT 850MB WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING TO              
THE EAST TODAY...DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCHING AROUND TO THE              
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM                
AIR TO MOVE IN ALOFT...BUT THE SFC WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. THE SFC               
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF ND                   
UNTIL AROUND 00Z WED. THEREFORE THE FA WILL BE IN FAIRLY GUSTY                  
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC.                 
THINK THE HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE WEST TODAY...AND                       
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS COVERED. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS                
IS...BUT WILL BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A LITTLE.                                     
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC LOW STILL ON TARGET TO TRACK ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN FA AND TOWARD KDLH BY 12Z WED. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE                 
GFS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AREA AND AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE IF ANY                
PCPN FALLS IT WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST FA. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK              
AT PCPN TYPES FOR TONIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...                
BUT NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE                       
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE LIGHT QPF OCCURRING IN THE                
COLDER AIR...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE PCPN AS FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT                   
SNOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC                  
TONIGHT. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS                
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.               
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM               
25 TO 30 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF               
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR                 
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KBJI OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN 12                 
UTC TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008/                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.                
USED RUC TEMPERATURES TO UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM              
AS MODEL BEST DEPICTS CURRENT WARMING TREND. THEN...SHIFTED TO                  
MAV/MET BLEND AS THERE EXISTS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM.                   
FAVORED GFS QPF SINCE IT SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPCOMING                 
CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS TO WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY                
AFTER THE FIRST CLIPPER PASSAGE.                                                
TODAY WILL BE WARMER AND BREEZY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW 850 HPA LOW                  
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSIVE                  
WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH. 24 HOUR 850 HPA TEMPERATURE CHANGE              
EXPECTED TO BE UPWARDS 0F +10 DEGREES C...RESULTING IN MAXIMUM                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AT THE                 
SAME TIME...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF               
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE                
925-850 HPA LAYER...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INHIBIT BOUNDARY                
LAYER MIXING. NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY                
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND                 
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TODAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS DEEPEST               
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOW AND CANADIAN BORDER.                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS CLIPPER SYSTEM                
MOVES EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS               
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS SUCH...THERE IS A SLIGHT                    
CHANCE FOR -SHSN MAINLY ACROSS ROSEAU...LAKE OF THE WOODS AND                   
BELTRAMI COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES..DID INCLUDE               
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM 06               
TO 12 UTC TONIGHT. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LAYER                  
FROM 700-800 HPA...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING FOR MIXED                   
PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.                                                   
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT ON BACK-                 
SIDE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT INSTABILITY SNOW                       
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE                
DAY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...ONE INCH OR LESS.                
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL                
PASSAGE.                                                                        
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO               
MOVE EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GODON                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1108 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                   
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW                
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE               
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THE LATEST RUC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED                   
ALONG THE AR/TN BORDER WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING EAST OF THE MID-               
ATLANTIC. AT THE MID-LEVELS...AN H5 CLOSED LOW IS DIPPING SEWD                  
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA              
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NRLY-NWRLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INDUCE LAKE                    
EFFECT SNOW OFF OF ERIE AND MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ARE                
LIMITED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN                 
FROM THE NW...WITH TDS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS              
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE U20S                  
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA TO THE L30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                 
REST OF THE CWA.                                                                
THIS AFTERNOON...H5 LOW WILL EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE SFC                   
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY CLIP THE NERN CWA AS NRN FETCH OFF                 
OF LAKE ERIE BECOMES MORE NWRN. UPDATED GRIDS TO A ADD A SLGT CHC               
SHSN FOR LICKING AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES. NRLY-NWRLY FLOW WILL                   
ALLOW FOR PTLY-MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DECREASED                
CLOUD COVERAGE AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. CONTINUED CAA FROM                
THE NW WITH 850 TEMPS APPROX -12C WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM                 
INTO THE L30S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND M30S FOR AREAS                 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
LO LVL WAA WILL DVLP ON WED AS SRLY FLO SETS UP ON THE BACK SIDE                
OF SFC HI PRES RIDGE. GFS/NAM BOTH INDCG STRONG CROSS CONTOUR                   
ISENT LIFT AT 290K LVL AND ABV BY MIDDAY WED INTO THE AFTN                      
HOURS...INDCG MID LVL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT COURTESY OF WAA REGIME.                 
TAKEN VERBATIM...DEPTH OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND AVAIL LIFT FROM BOTH             
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGESTING FAIRLY THICK CLOUD DECK FOR WED AFTN                 
FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE INCREASED TO PTLY TO MSTLY CLDY                 
FOR AFTN HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                     
AS DEEPER MID LVL ISENT LIFT DEPARTS TO EAST OF REGION BY WED                   
EVNG...MID CLOUDS LKLY TO BE REPLACED BY SC DECK AS AFOREMENTIONED              
SFC LO DROPS SOUTHEAST ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS WED NIGHT. A DRY COLD                 
FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE SFC LO WILL PASS THRU FCST AREA LATE WED                  
NIGHT...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE OH VLY.               
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES WITH FROPA WED NIGHT BUT                  
DEEP MOISTURE LACKING TO SOME EXTENT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.                     
UPR TROF RELOADS IN WAKE OF SFC LO/FRONT WITH 00Z MODELS GENERALLY              
FAVORING A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TROF OVER THE GRT LKS FOR                    
THURS/THURS NIGHT. LO LVL CAA AND NW FLO ON THURS OPENING                       
DOOR FOR DOWNWIND LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO AFFECT FCST AREA ONCE                 
AGAIN WITH SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA. A CLOSER LOOK              
AT MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDCG SIMILAR BNDRY LYR CONDITIONS TO MONDAY             
IN PLACE WITH STEEPENING LO LVL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY.            
HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO 20/30 POPS FOR SCT -SHSN ON THURS ACRS              
ENTIRE FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACRS NORTHEAST THIRD OF FCST             
AREA WHERE FAVORABLE 290-300 DEG WIND DIR SHOULD ENABLE LK MICHIGAN             
BANDS TO WORK INTO WEST CNTRL/CNTRL OH DURING AFTN HOURS. MAINTAIN              
POPS INTO THURS NIGHT AS TRAILING SFC TROF AND S/WV DIVE ACRS REGION.           
TEMPS...UNDERCUT MOS GUID THRU ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECTED               
MID LVL CLOUDS ON WED LKLY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE U30S/L40S ACRS                  
FCST AREA. EXPECT EVEN COLDER TEMPS THURS WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING               
TO NEAR -10C WITH MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINING IN THE 35-40 DEG              
RANGE. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR BOTH WED/THURS NIGHTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD                     
PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT WITH                
SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN                
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE                  
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED CLOSE TO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO                
EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHT TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS                 
DROPPING TO NEAR 20 DEG. WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -15C FRI...HAVE                    
LOWERED AFTN HIGHS INTO THE L/M30S. SAT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW                
DEG WARMER IN THE U30S/L40S.                                                    
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO EXIST FOR THE LAST PART             
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH SHORT              
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO               
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. SINCE THE ECMWF               
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR THE LAST FEW                    
RUNS...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO IT BUT STILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY             
INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 23Z AS CUMULUS                    
AND STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY DUE TO                  
THE COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL MVFR                
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS               
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z                           
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THIS                 
HIGH WILL CLEAR OUT/DISSIPATE REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS               
EVENING. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPILL                
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.                                          
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM                                                             
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...JGL/RYAN                                                            
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1146 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1135 AM CST                                                                     
WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT                  
18Z. LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN LATE THIS MORNING AS               
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE QUICKLY LOWERING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A               
GRADUAL DE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESS AND LESS                  
INLAND PENETRATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. WHILE A BRIEF                    
MODERATE SNOW SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY                           
AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ANY ADDITIONAL                           
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN                
RADAR/SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE LES.                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON.                             
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
430 AM CST                                                                      
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAD BACKED UP INTO PORTER AND                     
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE VERY EARLY                
MORNING. LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS              
BAND WELL...KEEPING AXIS OVER PORTER AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES                  
SOUTH ACROSS THE KANKAKEE RIVER INTO JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON             
COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING.                                                   
VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR IN WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT                   
DROPPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS ALLOWED CLOUD              
TOPS OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO APPROACH 20K FT IN DEPTH PER RADAR.             
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT TO PERSIST IN FAR NORTHWEST                
INDIANA WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE ILLINOIS                   
STATE LINE. WEB CAM ON 80/94 AT RIPLEY HAS BEEN SHOWING PERIODS OF              
HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOW COVERED HIGHWAY.                                           
BAND DEPICTED SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE                 
BY LATE MORNING WITH BACKING OF LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND                   
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL FROM THE BAND WILL BE DIMINISHING AS MID                  
LEVEL WARMING CAUSES IN A LOWERING OF THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AND                 
RESULTS IN LESS VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE.                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA...IOWA AND                   
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY               
KEEPING SKIES...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SUNNY FOR A                  
WHILE BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS START TO INVADE FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN                   
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER                
RIDGE.                                                                          
THIS SHORT WAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA              
AND REACH WESTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS                 
BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND THE LOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE ONTARIO-                 
MINNESOTA BORDER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES               
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S              
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS RETURNS                
THE REGION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.                       
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR               
BUT LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAVE FOR LAKE EFFECT AREAS                
OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN INDIANA.                                               
WITH COLD FLOW REGIME BACK...DAYTIME TEMPS RESTRICTED TO ONLY THE               
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST GFS SEEMS TO BE ALONE IN DROPPING               
A SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH A STRIPE OF                
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY                   
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                     
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1800 UTC TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE ALONG A STL-RFD-GRB LINE PER 17Z                  
ANALYSIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.                 
PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR CALM BEING OBSERVED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST               
OF GROUND STATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS                     
REESTABLISHED VIA QUICKLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO THE WEST OVER                  
IA. UNTIL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES DPA-ORD-MDW AND THEN FINALLY GYY                
EXPECT 330-350 WINDS TO PERSIST BUT BE REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AS               
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLACKEN.                                                  
THE LAST VESTIGES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND PUNCHING ON SHORE IN NW              
INDIANA AT THIS TIME WEAKENING AS INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS AND                   
WIND WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLACKENS. MAY SEE A SNOW                 
SHOWER CLIP GYY UNTIL 19Z BEFORE BOUNDARY TO H850 WINDS TURN MORE               
WESTERLY AND PUSH ANY LINGERING WEAKENING SHOW SHOWERS AND                      
FLURRIES BACK EASTWARD.                                                         
OUTSIDE OF LAKE INDUCED SC WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE                  
HOURS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI WITH NW FLOW...ONLY MODESTLY                        
INCREASING CI AND AC WILL MAR AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY THROUGH                    
SUNSET ACROSS NRN IL. EXPECT SCT-BKN MID AND HI CLOUDS TO BE THE                
RULE TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH UPPER RIDGING               
PATTERN TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                            
ED F                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
314 AM CST                                                                      
A LARGE HIGH WAS OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW               
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS PART OF THE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER LOW                 
WAS AT 38 NORTH LATITUDE AND 74 WEST LONGITUDE. THIS LOW...OFF THE              
COAST OF NEW JERSEY...AND THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING THE NORTH WIND ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO                     
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH                   
DAKOTA AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL              
MANITOBA AND SPREAD SOUTH TO OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT NO FREEZING SPRAY              
THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-             
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-                   
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM                    
     WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 PM     
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1135 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1135 AM CST                                                                     
WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT                  
18Z. LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN LATE THIS MORNING AS               
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE QUICKLY LOWERING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A               
GRADUAL DE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESS AND LESS                  
INLAND PENETRATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. WHILE A BRIEF                    
MODERATE SNOW SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY                           
AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ANY ADDITIONAL                           
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN                
RADAR/SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE LES.                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON.                             
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
430 AM CST                                                                      
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAD BACKED UP INTO PORTER AND                     
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE VERY EARLY                
MORNING. LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS              
BAND WELL...KEEPING AXIS OVER PORTER AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES                  
SOUTH ACROSS THE KANKAKEE RIVER INTO JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON             
COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING.                                                   
VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR IN WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT                   
DROPPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS ALLOWED CLOUD              
TOPS OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO APPROACH 20K FT IN DEPTH PER RADAR.             
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT TO PERSIST IN FAR NORTHWEST                
INDIANA WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE ILLINOIS                   
STATE LINE. WEB CAM ON 80/94 AT RIPLEY HAS BEEN SHOWING PERIODS OF              
HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOW COVERED HIGHWAY.                                           
BAND DEPICTED SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE                 
BY LATE MORNING WITH BACKING OF LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND                   
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL FROM THE BAND WILL BE DIMINISHING AS MID                  
LEVEL WARMING CAUSES IN A LOWERING OF THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AND                 
RESULTS IN LESS VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE.                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA...IOWA AND                   
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY               
KEEPING SKIES...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SUNNY FOR A                  
WHILE BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS START TO INVADE FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN                   
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER                
RIDGE.                                                                          
THIS SHORT WAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA              
AND REACH WESTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS                 
BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND THE LOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE ONTARIO-                 
MINNESOTA BORDER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES               
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S              
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS RETURNS                
THE REGION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.                       
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR               
BUT LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW SAVE FOR LAKE EFFECT AREAS                
OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN INDIANA.                                               
WITH COLD FLOW REGIME BACK...DAYTIME TEMPS RESTRICTED TO ONLY THE               
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST GFS SEEMS TO BE ALONE IN DROPPING               
A SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH A STRIPE OF                
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY                   
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                     
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1200 UTC TAFS...                                                                
612 AM CST                                                                      
THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE AIRPORTS IN NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST                
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE RESULTING FROM THE MOVEMENT OF           
A LARGE HIGH OVER IOWA THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NORTH WIND                 
AT THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO WESTERN               
KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SOUTH WIND AFTER 22 UTC               
AT THE AIRPORTS. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.                
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL BE LARGE                    
ENOUGH TO GIVE 14 TO 19 KNOT WIND LATE MORNING AND EARLY                        
AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A TEN                      
THOUSAND FOOT CEILING BY THIS EVENING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
314 AM CST                                                                      
A LARGE HIGH WAS OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW               
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS PART OF THE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER LOW                 
WAS AT 38 NORTH LATITUDE AND 74 WEST LONGITUDE. THIS LOW...OFF THE              
COAST OF NEW JERSEY...AND THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING THE NORTH WIND ON              
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO                     
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH                   
DAKOTA AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL              
MANITOBA AND SPREAD SOUTH TO OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT NO FREEZING SPRAY              
THIS MORNING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.               
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-             
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-                   
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM                    
     WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 PM     
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDA
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
525 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO               
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT                 
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                  
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF BANDING DVLPG OVER THE NRN BAY AND H92                 
OMEGA FIELDS ON NAM/RUC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS OVER THE              
PAST 24 HRS. ALREADY HAVE SEEN A DECENT BAND FORM EARLIER THIS                  
AFTN FURTHER NORTH OVER THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS WERE PRIMARILY                
WNW FROM THE SFC TO H-70. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NNW FROM               
THE SFC TO H92 WHICH HAS MADE BAND MORE UNORGANIZED AND ERRATIC.                
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH A QUICK BURST OF -SN SHRAS COULD MOVE               
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF WORCESTER (INCLUDING OCEAN CITY) AS              
DOX RADAR SHOWS SIGNS OF ENHANCEMENT OFF THE TIP OF CAPE                        
MAY.                                                                            
BEST BANDING LATER THIS EVE LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN CHES               
BAY AND INTO THE LOWER ERN SHORE (MAINLY OVER SRN ACCCOMACK AND                 
NRN NORTHAMPTON). THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN THIS EVE/EARLY               
TONIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLE ACCUMS OF SNOW IF ANY BANDS CAN GET                    
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                              
OVERNIGHT...925-800 MB LYRD AIR TRAJ ABT 340 DEGS...NAM12                       
RH/OMEGA FCST SUGG THAT NARROW BANDS (STREAMERS) ONGOING OVER THE               
SRN ERN SHORE THIS EVE/ERLY OVRNT COULD PTNTLLY CLIP PORTIONS OF                
THE SRN VA ERN SHR LATE TNT/ERLY TMRW...IN ADDTN TO VA BCH/NRN                  
OTR BNKS (EVEN ORF AREA COULD SEE ENHANCED SNSH...HWVR...ATTM TRAJ              
FCST APRS TO BE JUST ENUF NW INSTD OF N TO KP ANY BAND JUST E OF                
THAT CITY).                                                                     
XPCTG COLD NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...W/ MANY LCTNS AWAY FM THE                 
BAY/OCN HVG TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S. TRAJ FM NNW OFF THE BAY                    
SHOULD KP LO TEMPS FM FALLING BLO 32 DEGS ORF/VA BCH VCNTY/NRN OTR              
BNKS TO PRECLUDE A FRZ WRNG ATTM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
PTRN ALOFT RELAXES A BIT WED THROUGH THU AS TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS                 
WELL E OF THE ERN CBRD. RMNG COLD AGN WED...BUT DRY...AS ANY WAA                
INDUCED PCPN RMNS SUFFICIENTLY N OF FA. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M 40S.                
ANOTHER COLD NGT WED NGT W/ LGT WNDS...LEADING TO TEMPS FALLING                 
QUIKLY IN THE EVE...B4 LEVELING OFF. EVEN CSTL AREAS IN SE VA/NE                
NC SHOULD HV FRZG TEMPS...AND WOULD NEED WRNG (TO OFFICIALLY END                
GROWING SEASON). LO TEMPS IN THE 20S TO ARND 30.                                
MODERATION OF AMS XPCTD THU W/ DP LYRD WLY FLO...ANY COOLING FM                 
NEXT CDFNTL PASSAGE (IN THE AFTN) SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVE.                    
XPCTG HI TEMPS IN THE L/M 50S.                                                  
NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES THU NGT/FRI AS NEXT AMPLIFICATION OF              
UPR LVL TROUGH OCCURS (FOLLOWED BY STRNG CANADIAN HI PRES                       
RETURNING). 850 MB TEMPS ONCE AGN TO PLUNGE TO NR LVLS OF                       
TDAS...NR -10/-11 DEGS C...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCT FLURRIES AND/OR              
SNSH. WL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL BAY PLUME AGN FRI AFTN/EVE INTO               
SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M 40S.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
MDLS IN GEN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING OFF THE                       
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM              
THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRES GRAD WILL AGAIN BRING BREEZY                
CONDS AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING                
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE                  
ANCHORED IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY FOR NOW.              
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S            
BEFORE MODERATING SOMEWHAT INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL               
LIKELY BE IN THE M/U 30S...40S ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS            
MORNING WITH MOST SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SHORE DUE TO BAY AFFECT.               
WIDESPREAD COLD AIR CU DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA SO SCT/BKN CIGS                 
3500-6000 FT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW            
RAIN OR SHOW SHOWERS STILL PSBL THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.                
STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONT THRU THE EVENING INTO WED AS COASTAL LOW             
MOVES NORTH AND SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WIND SPDS                
WILL SUBSIDE ON WED TO 10-15 KT AVG.                                            
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW BY LATE WED AS HIGH MOVES SOUTH            
AND A WEAK LOW AND FRONT APPROACHES. NO WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED AS              
OF THIS TIME AND VFR CONDS THRU FRI.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WITH CURRENT WX SET-UP...STRONG PRES GRAD, ETC. GALES WL REMAIN UP              
THROUGH TOMORROW AND XPCT SCA FLAGS UP FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND                 
MAYBE INTO THE WEEKEND. MDLS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND             
SUBSEQUENT GALE OR SCA POSSIBLE FRI INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING EFFECTS            
ARE LIKLELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WATERS UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE              
SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING AT LEAST OVER THE CHES BAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER:                             
RICHMOND....1991/8TH (0.1")                                                     
NORFOLK.....1987/11TH (0.3")                                                    
SALISBURY...1989/22-23RD (2.5")                                                 
RCRD LO TEMPS:                                                                  
NOV 19                                                                          
RIC 18 1936                                                                     
ORF 25 1959                                                                     
SBY 17 1936                                                                     
ECG 21 1959                                                                     
NOV 20                                                                          
RIC 21 1951                                                                     
ORF 27 1980                                                                     
SBY 22 1924                                                                     
ECG 25 1997                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>633.                  
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-             
     658.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB                                                              
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ALB                                                                
LONG TERM...KLL                                                                 
AVIATION...JEF                                                                  
MARINE...KLL                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1106 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO                
MONITOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CLOUD COVER                
MAY HINDER WARMING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS IS                 
FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL                
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                   
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND BUILDING SLOWLY EAST. AT THE                      
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP A BIT AS HIGH                    
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. ACROSS                
WESTERN CWA WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHILE ACROSS THE EAST               
THEY ARE APPROACHING 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME NEARLY                    
STEADY OR HAVE RISEN A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS WARMER               
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.                                            
IMPRESSIVE WAA SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS                   
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. FOR EXAMPLE...06Z                 
NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -2 C ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AT                
12Z THIS MORNING...BUT WARMS UP TO +11 C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING...WILL BE ABLE TO MIX WARMER AIR                
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL THEREFORE SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH A                     
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SEEING 40S AND 50S. ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                 
CWA WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THE LONGEST TODAY...MAY ONLY              
SEE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                 
BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH                    
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE              
EAST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 00Z AND               
THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT THEN SLOWLY               
RISE TONIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE                 
WARM FRONT. THIS PLAYS OUT IN THE TEMP GRIDS ALSO. THEN FOR                     
WEDNESDAY...CAA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH               
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. CONSTRUCTED GRIDS TO SHOW A LATE MORNING OR                
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE THEN AS CAA BECOMES MORE                       
SUBSTANTIAL...SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY FALL DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST PUSH OF CAA OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. NAM/GFS TRY TO                  
SPIT OUT .01 QPF HERE AND THERE ACROSS EASTERN SD...SUGGESTING                  
PERHAPS FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SREF PROBS OF .01                  
SHOW NOTHING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT BUFKIT                     
SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT GFS                   
SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT SNOW AT KABR AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH NEAR                     
SATURATION IN SNOW GROWTH REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ONLY A                
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB...BUT FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE                 
RATES BELOW THIS SHALLOW LAYER. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT EITHER              
BUT THERE IS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN WHICH COULD HELP TO                
SCOUR OUT A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SCT FLURRIES FOR                  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES.                      
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH SORTING OUT MODEL               
SOLNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                 
MODELS STILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN TWO CAMPS FOR THE EXTENDED                     
FORECAST. THE GFS/UKMET/DGEX SOLN ALL POINT TOWARD STRONGER WAVE                
CRASHING OVER THE WRN CONUS RIDGE...CLOSED 5H/7H LOWS DROPPING                  
INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. THE EC/CANADIAN/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE                 
WITH THIS WAVE CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE...BUT KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE               
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRAVERSES TO THE EAST. THE EC IS NOW TRENDED              
TO A BIT MORE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH...MORE INTO ND THAN                         
CANADA...AND THE LATEST RUN NOW PAINTS A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE ERN              
DAKOTAS FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY                
PARTICULAR SOLN...HAVE JUST KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE AND LEFT THE                  
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW. ALSO INTERESTING IS THAT THE EC IS NOW                    
DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO BEGIN NEXT                 
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A ZONAL FLOW APPEARANCE ACROSS THE               
NRN TIER STATES.                                                                
TEMP WISE...THE MODELS DO AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BEING               
OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SPEC                    
HUMIDITIES LEANING TO MOCLEAR SKIES...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD                
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY NIGHT                  
LOWS BY A CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE STUCK PRETTY                 
CLOSE TO INHERITED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE                 
MODELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD FOR ALL               
TERMINAL SITES. SCT-BKN080-100 CLOUDS WILL DRIFT NW TO SE ACROSS                
THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
257 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND                   
VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER                
MO/IL WHOSE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ALONG THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN              
INTO ONTARIO.  SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS BEING FILTERED BY VARIABLE               
CIRRUS THICKNESS.  NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE WESTERN             
NOAM RIDGE IS SET TO DIVE SE WITHIN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT.  CLOUDS             
THICKEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO                  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 285-295K SURFACES.  HAVEN`T SEEN ANY REPORTS           
OF PRECIP WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...MOSTLY DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
MOISTURE BEING LOCATED TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE LOWER MOISTURE.  AS THIS            
ASCENT AND MOISTURE SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO                      
TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                        
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL              
BE STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING AND TEMPS WILL FALL RATHER                 
RAPIDLY DESPITE THE THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.  WINDS WILL SHIFT             
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE EVENING AS              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.  BUT JUST LIKE OUT                        
WEST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OUTRUN ITS LOWER MOISTURE            
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM FRONT.  AS A RESULT...MOISTURE DEPTH              
NEVER REALLY REACHES -10C...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FREEZING                  
DRIZZLE...UNLESS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES OCCUR RIGHT AS THE                
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXITING.  THERE IS ALSO SOME DRY AIR RIGHT                 
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE                       
POTENTIAL.  SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND                  
FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST.  BEST CHANCES OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE            
WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE LOWER.             
LOWS WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL RANGE             
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SE.                                      
THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WITH A            
WEAK SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF IT...PASSING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.  EVEN               
WITHOUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE             
WAVE AND INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL IMPROVE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES               
DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.  STILL CANNOT             
RULE OUT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED                  
MOISTURE PROBLEM.  COLD ADVECTION SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS         
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.  850MB TEMPS FALL TO             
AROUND -10C...ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ONCE             
AGAIN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR BANDS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.              
SO THIS IS MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW NIGHT (SEE BELOW).                    
REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG SYNOPTIC              
WINDS WILL MEAN A CLOUDY AND WINDY DAY TOMORROW...WITH SOME LIGHT               
PRECIP OVER THE NORTH...AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.                      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                    
MAIN FOCUS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED            
TO DROP TO -16 C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY                
FLOW. LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...              
WINDS LINE UP PERFECTLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR VILAS COUNTY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE        
LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 450 TO 600 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS                   
RISING TO AROUND 9500 FT. ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR VILAS             
COUNTY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON ALL THE                
AVAILABLE DATA...COORDINATING WITH DULUTH AND MARQUETTE...AND                   
USING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHART. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD               
WAS HOW TO HANDLE THE SIX HOURLY SNOW GRIDS DURING THE EVENT.                   
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL                
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GFS IS QUICKER IN              
BACKING THE 850MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
OUTSIDE THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY...THINK THAT                       
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FOREST                     
COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL DURING THE                   
EVENT AS WELL. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE COMING OFF              
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES                  
OVER THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY                 
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.                                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND              
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION               
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE TIME BEING AND LEFT TUESDAY DRY UNTIL             
THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE MODELS.                                       
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY DUE TO EXPECTED                  
CLOUD COVER AND COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND CONTINUED                   
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS               
WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WISCONSIN AREA.  AS WINDS                      
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND SHEAR...CIGS WILL BE LOWERING WITH             
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT TO MVFR LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN TAF SITES.  STILL A TOUGH CALL WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY                
FZDZ OR FLURRIES...BUT APPEARS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FOR             
A CHANCE OF SOME NUISANT PRECIP.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND              
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS RATHER                  
ELEVATED.  BUT HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY USING VCSH AND WILL SEE HOW IT             
PLAYS OUT.  MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL THEN                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES JUST TO               
THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.                                                     
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE                      
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ005.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MPC/ECKBERG                                                                     
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