FXUS61 KALY 231722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS THINNED OUT 
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT THEN THE NEXT SURGE OF ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE PUSHED WEST.  WITH INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 K FT AND WITH 
DEPTH OF GROUND BASED MIXED LAYER INCREASING WITH HEATING, MOISTURE 
LAYER THINNING.  AS A RESULT AFTER MAKING A SURGE INTO EASTERN NEW 
YORK LOW CLOUDS HAVE THINNED EXCEPT ON UPSLOPE SIDE OF BERKSHIRES. 
BATCH OF CLOUDS TO THE WEST HAS STEADILY THINNED.  GIVEN MOIST LAYER 
BECOMING VERY THIN FEEL CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT...EXCEPT THIS 
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME EAST PORTION OF CWA.  CAN'T RULE ANOTHER 
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM EAST BUT WILL PLAY THAT DOWN. CLOUDS FROM 
EAST MAY MAKE MAKE ANOTHER RUN WEST INTO  EAST PORTION OF CWA AND 
MODELS DEPICTING A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH ATLANTIC LOW 
WRAPPING WESTWARD. 


FREEZE ADVISORY LAST NIGHT HIT IN A FEW AREAS EAST OF HUDSON RIVER 
WHERE SKIES DID CLEAR.  WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY (WHICH 
WAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA) TEMPERATURES HELD AROUND 40.  FOR 
TONIGHT, AIRMASS HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY AT 850 MB BUT SKIES WILL  
CLEARER TONIGHT AND COLDEST AIR IS SHALLOW AND BELOW 850. WOULD 
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BUT WITH 
FREEZE WARNING ALREADY UP IN THOSE LAST AREAS SEMI-AGRICULTURALLY 
ACTIVE AREAS, NO CHANGES PLANNED.  SPECIFIC ZONES LISTED BELOW. 
LATEST FIRST FREEZE IN THE FALL IN ALBANY WAS  NOV 12 1883. THE LAST 
TIME THE FIRST FREEZE IN THE FALL OCCURRED THIS LATE IN THE SEASON 
WAS OCTOBER 26 1936.  

MODEL TIMING ON SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS GROWN 
CONSISTENT OVER PAST 2 DAYS, AND TREND THE SAME - SYSTEM WEAKENS AS 
BULK OF ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO THE SE AND N. MIDNIGHT FORECAST DROPPED 
SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCE POPS AND AM FINE WITH THAT SO LEFT THEM OUT.  
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT IT IS EVEN WEAKER THAN 
SUNDAY NIGHT VERSION SO WILL KEEP WX DRY.  AIR LAKE TEMPERATURE 
DIFFERENTIAL REACHES ONLY 11-12C AND FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE 
INFLUENCE FROM BOTH A DIRECTIONAL PERSPECTIVE AND ANTICYLONIC 
CURVATURE PERSPECTIVE.
 

&&
 
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOME CHANGES FROM 24 
HOURS AGO IN TERMS OF LONG RANGE WEATHER. 00Z AND 06Z GFS INDICATE 
THAT BLOCKY PATTERN THAT WAS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL 
BREAKDOWN SOONER.  00Z GFS SHOWS A SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION INDUCED 
PRECIP REACHING CWA BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.  850 MB +12C INTO CENTRAL NY 
WITH SUBZERO LI'S INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. 06Z GFS A TAD SLOWER.  00Z 
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH SURFACE STILL CENTERED OVER NY STATE AT 12Z 
FRI.  DGEX IS EVEN FASTER THAN 00Z/06Z GFS BRINGING PRECIP AS EARLY 
AS 00Z THURSDAY. GFS MOS 24 POPS THU ARE AT THE HIGH END OF THE GFS 
MOS ENSEMBLE RANGE. 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE DGEX...IE FAST. HAVE ADDED 
CHANCE POPS TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT, BLENDING WITH SURROUNDING 
OFFICES. TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE SPED UP LATER.   MAY BE ONE BATCH OF 
SHOWERS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WITH COLD FROPA FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AFTER THAT AIR FORECAST TO DRY OUT SATURDAY. 
HOWEVER WITH 850 MB T DROPPING TO -2/-4,  LAKE TEMP 13-14C, AND 280 
DEGREE FLOW, SOME LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE.  GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW 
MIXED LAYER (5 K FT) SO ANY LAKE INDUCED PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT AND 
CONFINED TO WNW PORTION CWA.  WILL BEND TO CONSENSUS AS TO WHETHER 
TO INCLUDE.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WIND NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME LOW 
CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS EXTREME EAST PORTION OF CWA. ISOLD IFR IN GROUND 
FOG NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DRY PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM 
PRECIP.  RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP.  NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. 
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING 3AM TO 9AM SUNDAY 
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
VT...NONE.
&&

$$