AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO                                            
925 PM MST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING AS               
SYSTEMS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA MERGE AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN             
GREAT BASIN.  LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SNOW                   
EXPANDING IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEVADA AND                 
PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IDAHO BORDER.  LATEST MESO ANALYSIS                 
SHOWS GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO I-80 ACROSS NEVADA. LOOKING AT             
LATEST RUC AND MESO12 DETAILS PLACES A BAND OF MODERATE TO                      
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND              
TENDING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY 12Z.  MODELED               
WATER EQUIVALENTS TRANSLATE INTO 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH                  
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES IN A FEW PLACES.  STILL NOT QUITE SURE             
HOW FAR NORTH SNOW BAND WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY BUT IF STRONG                      
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF 40N DURING THE NIGHT AND IS                 
STILL ABLE TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL PLUME COMING ACROSS CENTRAL                  
CALIFORNIA...THEN SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS A LARGER AREA              
ON TUESDAY AND FARTHER NORTH AS WELL.  CURRENT GRIDS AND SOUTHERN               
ZONES NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR HIGHER QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS.  ALREADY              
COORDINATED DECISIONS WITH MFR/EKN/AND PIH WHO ALL HAVE WINTER                  
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATES FORTHCOMING.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT               
OVER THE BAKER VALLEY FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING.  THE MAGIC            
VALLEY WILL BATTLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH IFR             
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TEMPORARILY TO             
MVFR WITH ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN                
VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE               
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  ELSEWHERE             
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODICALLY MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOW            
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON                 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  OUR AREA WAS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS MONDAY              
AFTERNOON. THE 1ST WAS THE COMMA HEAD OF A LARGE DEPARTING SYSTEM               
OVER UTAH.  CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FAVORED OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES            
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THAT FEATURE TO EXIT BY TUESDAY                   
MORNING.  THE 2ND SYSTEM WAS UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA                  
COAST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED WELL               
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD             
INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THEN EXIT BY                  
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH AS A MODIFIED              
ARCTIC FRONT BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                   
INCREASING POPS FAVORING OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FAVORING THE                
MOUNTAINS.  THE COOLING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES                   
THROUGH THURSDAY.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...A                  
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY THEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW            
NORMAL ON THURSDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN            
PLACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER STRONG SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE...EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING TO BE COLDEST OF WEEK...AND               
POSSIBLY COLDEST OF SEASON SO FAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE              
TO WARM ON FRIDAY AND EVEN THOUGH MODELS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF               
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AS 500MB              
BEGIN TO THE RISE...WARMING ISN/T REALIZED AT SURFACE UNTIL SATURDAY            
AT THE EARLIEST. RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT                 
ABOUT PATTERN CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT AREA                 
UNDER AN INVERSION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF WARMING               
ALOFT BUT WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS IT WON/T               
TAKE MUCH WARMING ALOFT TO SET UP INVERSION. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FOG              
AND PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                           
DISCUSSION...GS                                                                 
AVIATION.....RH                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TE                                                        
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
825 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
...DISCUSSION...                                                                
QUITE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING...RANGING FROM                       
TEMPERATURES TO FOG TO CHANCES FOR FREEZING PCPN IN THE NORTH.                  
00Z SFC CHART SHOWING A COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.                
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN            
IL AND SOUTHERN MO. ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHES NE OUT OF MO AND                 
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A STATIONARY                 
FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON THE NORTH               
SIDE AND IN THE LOWER 30S JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM RUFFLY GBG            
TO PIA TO IKK. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS                 
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL. TEMPS ARE                  
PRETTY MUCH REMAINING STEADY AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE                     
TONIGHT...MAYBE EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES            
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.                      
RADAR SHOWING THAT PCPN IS BREAKING OUT IN BANDS AND MOVING QUICKLY             
TO THE NE. HIGH REFLECTIVITIES ON SOME OF THE RETURNS INDICATING                
SOME SLEET A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH. PIA DID REPORT            
SOME SLEET FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLIER.                                            
MEANWHILE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE OF A                   
CONCERN...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 OF A MILE IN QUITE A             
FEW LOCATIONS.                                                                  
AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE              
NORTH TONIGHT...I PLAN ON NO CHANGES TO THIS AT THIS TIME. WHILE                
SOME ICING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...I DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT ANY             
KIND OF A MAJOR EVENT. AND TEMPS MAY RISE ENUFF BY MORNING THAT                 
THINGS MAY REMAIN UN-FROZEN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUFF IN THAT TO                
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE MOMENT.                                                 
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING SOME...WILL MAKE            
MENTION OF NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES...WILL ADD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE            
AT TIMES BUT DONT THINK IT WILL STAY PEA SOUP ALL NIGHT OR REAL                 
WIDESPREAD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...SO WILL STOP JUST SHORT             
OF AN ADVISORY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS IN THE SHORT TERM              
AND SEEMED TO VERIFY FINE EXCEPT FOR SFC TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND ETA                
STARTED THE DAY AROUND 5 DEGREES TOO COOL IN NORTHERN AREAS OF CWA.             
THIS CRITICAL TO FCST SINCE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE              
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. OTHER                
CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS. OTHER CONCERN IS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT AND THUR.                 
MODELS DIFFER WITH MAIN WAVE COMING ON WED THROUGH THUR. GFS COMES              
OUT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE EAT IS SLOWER AND               
WEAKER. THIS HAS A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR            
THUR...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA                 
PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AS FAR              
AS SPEED AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND SEE WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE                   
TOMORROW.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                        
WARM FRONT CRNTLY EXTENDS FROM OK INTO MO AND NWRN IL. THIS FURTHER             
NORTH THAN ALL MODELS INDICATE...EXCEPT FOR RUC. IN TURN...WARMER               
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN               
COUPLE OF DEGS THIS AFTERNOON. PRSS FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN HIGH WITH              
THE FIRST WAVE WHICH INDICATES GOOD WAA. SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE                 
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS             
TIME. AIR MASS ABOVE THE INVERSION RELATIVELY DRY...SO MAY TAKE SOME            
TIME BEFORE PCPN STARTS REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL START WITH CHC             
PCPN TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WARMER               
AIR IN LOWER LVLS...WILL HAVE ZR- ONLY IN NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES               
AND HAVE RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO MENTION CHC OF THUNDER IN THE                
CNTRL AND SOUTH FOR OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE            
JUST NORTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD                  
OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...STATIONARY                
FRONT WILL SETUP ACRS SRN IL. DYNAMICS AND LIFT REMAIN CONFINED TO              
THE FRONT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SO RAIN AND CHC OF THUNDER              
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IN THE CNTRL AND SOUTH WHILE              
CHC OF PCPN WILL DECREASE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN UP NORTH WILL BE ALL             
RAIN AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...OR CONTINUE TO WARM.                           
MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ON WED AND ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR            
INTO THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. DYNAMICS INCREASE FOR WED AND             
INTO WED NIGHT WHILE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT AS WELL. RAIN COULD ALSO BE              
ON THE HEAVY SIDE WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MODELS                   
SPITTING OUT QPF AROUND AN INCH IN 6 HRS. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE                   
ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND WITH FLOODING ALREADY ONGOING HAVE OPTED             
OUT OF ISSUING AN ESF FOR THE AREA. FFA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR               
THAT TIME FRAME IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNT OF QPF FOR              
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR TWO MORE MDL RUNS TO SEE AND IF              
NECESSARY WILL LIKELY ISSUE FFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                             
PER BLEND OF GFS AND ETA...SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING WED                  
NIGHT/THUR MORNING. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS                  
COLDER AIR MOVES IN RIGHT AFTER THE FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS ON             
THUR TO BE FALLING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MORNING.                 
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FOR THUR WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AND DEPEND ON TRACK            
OF LOW. WITH MODELS DIFFERING AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY HAVE CHC OF                
SNOW DURING ON THUR.                                                            
TEMPS TRICKY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...WAA AND PCPN IN MOST PERIODS.                
TRIED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.                                
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
EXTENDED WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH AREA SEEING                             
CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY             
COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT            
A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK                    
REASONABLE FOR FRI AND SAT BUT BELIEVE MEX WARMS THINGS TOO                     
QUICKLY...SO UNDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUN AND MON.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR KNOX...MARSHALL AND STARK              
COUNTIES                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HALL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
300 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS IN THE SHORT TERM              
AND SEEMED TO VERIFY FINE EXCEPT FOR SFC TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND ETA                
STARTED THE DAY AROUND 5 DEGREES TOO COOL IN NORTHERN AREAS OF CWA.             
THIS CRITICAL TO FCST SINCE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE              
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. OTHER                
CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS. OTHER CONCERN IS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT AND THUR.                 
MODELS DIFFER WITH MAIN WAVE COMING ON WED THROUGH THUR. GFS COMES              
OUT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE EAT IS SLOWER AND               
WEAKER. THIS HAS A SIGNIGICANT AFFECT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR            
THUR...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA                 
PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AS FAR              
AS SPEED AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND SEE WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE                   
TOMORROW.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                        
WARM FRONT CRNTLY EXTENDS FROM OK INTO MO AND NWRN IL. THIS FURTHER             
NORTH THAN ALL MODELS INDICATE...EXCEPT FOR RUC. IN TURN...WARMER               
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN               
COUPLE OF DEGS THIS AFTERNOON. PRSS FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN HIGH WITH              
THE FIRST WAVE WHICH INDICATES GOOD WAA. SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE                 
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS             
TIME. AIR MASS ABOVE THE INVERSION RELATIVELY DRY...SO MAY TAKE SOME            
TIME BEFORE PCPN STARTS REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL START WITH CHC             
PCPN TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WARMER               
AIR IN LOWER LVLS...WILL HAVE ZR- ONLY IN NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES               
AND HAVE RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO MENTION CHC OF THUNDER IN THE                
CNTRL AND SOUTH FOR OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE            
JUST NORTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD                  
OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...STATIONARY                
FRONT WILL SETUP ACRS SRN IL. DYNAMICS AND LIFT REMAIN CONFINED TO              
THE FRONT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SO RAIN AND CHC OF THUNDER              
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IN THE CNTRL AND SOUTH WHILE              
CHC OF PCPN WILL DECREASE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN UP NORTH WILL BE ALL             
RAIN AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...OR CONTINUE TO WARM.                           
MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ON WED AND ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR            
INTO THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. DYNAMICS INCREASE FOR WED AND             
INTO WED NIGHT WHILE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT AS WELL. RAIN COULD ALSO BE              
ON THE HEAVY SIDE WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MODELS                   
SPITTING OUT QPF AROUND AN INCH IN 6 HRS. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE                   
ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND WITH FLOODING ALREADY ONGOING HAVE OPTED             
OUT OF ISSUING AN ESF FOR THE AREA. FFA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR               
THAT TIME FRAME IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTANT WITH AMOUNT OF QPF FOR              
WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR TWO MORE MDL RUNS TO SEE AND IF              
NECESSARY WILL LIKELY ISSUE FFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                             
PER BLEND OF GFS AND ETA...SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING WED                  
NIGHT/THUR MORNING. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS                  
COLDER AIR MOVES IN RIGHT AFTER THE FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS ON             
THUR TO BE FALLING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MORNING.                 
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FOR THUR WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AND DEPEND ON TRACK            
OF LOW. WITH MODESL DIFFERING AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY HAVE CHC OF                
SNOW DURING ON THUR.                                                            
TEMPS TRICKY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...WAA AND PCPN IN MOST PERIODS.                
TRIED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.                                
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
EXTENDED WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH AREA SEEING                             
CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY             
COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT            
A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK                    
REASONABLE FOR FRI AND SAT BUT BELIEVE MEX WARMS THINGS TOO                     
QUICKLY...SO UPDERCUT TEMPS FOR SUN AND MON.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR KNOX...MARSHALL AND STARK              
COUNTIES                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AUTEN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1115 AM MST MON JAN 10 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...CALLS AROUND TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS                   
INDICATE THAT FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO GREATER              
THAN A 1/4 MILE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ASOS OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALSO               
IMPROVED IN BURLINGTON AND GOODLAND TO AROUND 1 MILE. THEREFORE HAVE            
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST.                          
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT NOWCASTS HARD AS PATCHY DENSE                    
FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC                 
AIR...IN THE 4 COUNTY AREA OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE IN COLORADO               
AND SHERMAN AND WALLACE IN KANSAS.                                              
ALSO TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO LOWER TODAYS HIGHS ANOTHER CATEGORY OR             
SO ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS CLOUDS/FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES                  
NEARLY STEADY ALL MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE CLEARLY DEFINES                    
LOCATION OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR ELKHART KANSAS TO LAMAR                         
COLORADO...THEN WEST TO LA JUNTA. SOME RETREAT NOTED IN THE LAST                
HOUR OR SO ON ITS SOUTHERN END...BUT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE               
BACK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND EASTERLY              
UPSLOPE WILL BE DOMINATE...AND WENT CLOSE TO THE RUC ON TEMPERATURES            
WHICH IS PERFORMING EXCELLENTLY AT THE MOMENT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
909 AM MST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...12Z ANALYSIS PLACED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE                   
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...JUST WEST OF LIMON. ONLY MODEL THAT                
SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE WAS THE 15Z RUC. ALL OTHER MODELS TOO FAR                
EAST WITH THE FRONT AND THUS TOO WARM. THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER HIGH              
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 30S TO THE COLORADO BORDER...FOLLOWING THE            
RUC. FURTHER EAST THE RUC HOLDS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S ALL               
DAY. HOWEVER LEFT THAT AREA ALONE FOR NOW SINCE CURRENT FORECAST                
WITHIN 5 DEGREES ANYWAY. NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE WORDING IN THE ZONES...SINCE NONE BEING REPORTED...BUT THEN             
AGAIN THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS              
DEBATABLE. FURTHER UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED TO REFLECT                
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS WITH FOG/DRIZZLE AND TEMPERATURES.                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z THIS MORNING..CHEYENNE..SHERMAN..WALLACE      
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z THIS MORNING..YUMA..KIT CARSON                
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
928 PM EST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A 130KT 300MB JET NEAR GEORGIAN BAY.             
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS IS AIDING SOME MID FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT                
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ALONG AND NORTH             
OF A FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AREA RADARS SHOW TWO MAIN BANDS OF             
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT. ONE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MSP TO                 
CENTRAL MICHIGAN... WITH ONLY FLURRIES BEING REPORTED. THE SECOND               
AREA OF RETURNS ARC FROM SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO CENTRAL            
IN. MAINLY RA AND FZRA IS OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. THE HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN                
INDICATED BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR                          
APX/GRB/DTX/DVN ALL WERE A LITTLE BIT DRYER BELOW 700MB AS A RESULT.            
MEANWHILE... THE 12Z AND 18Z RUC AND ETA VERIFIED THE THERMAL                   
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE REGION RATHER WELL.                                        
FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY... FEEL THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE                
SNOW TO START THE EVENT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS DUE TO                 
SLIGHTLY LOWER WET BULB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. PERSISTENT              
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES SHOULD ALSO              
TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH                       
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW HELPING TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE ADVISORY                
AREA. LIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AFTER 06Z AND            
PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH 18Z TUE. THE WARM LAYER WILL SLOWLY LIFT             
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY... CAUSING A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND              
FREEZING RAIN BY NOON... THEN ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON              
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE... WILL INCREASE TOTAL SNOWFALL TO             
2 TO 4 INCHES AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO 2 PM TUES. WITH SPECIFIC               
HUMIDITIES OF 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTH... LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES              
MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA TUES MORNING IF THE CHANGE OVER TO                
SLEET AND FZRA IS LATER.                                                        
AS FOR THE M 59 COUNTIES... THE SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKS MAINLY LIKE              
SNOW THROUGH NOON TUES. WILL HOWEVER CUT BACK ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO             
3 INCHES AS IT APPEARS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TONIGHT WILL            
BE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES. MODEST LIFT WILL OCCUR               
TUES MORNING... BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN IN THE                   
ADVISORY AREA.                                                                  
AND FOR I 69 COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTHWARD... THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR             
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HIGH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL                     
ACCUMULATION. I WILL THUS LOWER SNOWFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS                    
CONSIDERABLY. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM                 
SUPPORTS THIS. FOR TONIGHT/TUES MORNING... I WILL CARRY                         
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.                                                  
THE UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 330 UTC (1030 PM).             
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION GRR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 640 PM.                                                  
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT... THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON                    
TUESDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS                
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... WITH DEEP MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST            
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN              
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL             
LIFT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THIS WILL ALLOW                
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH              
TUESDAY MORNING AND BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF M 59. THE HIGH PRESSURE               
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HAS               
ALLOWED TEMPS TO LOWER A BIT MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS TEND TO            
BELIEVE THE 18Z MODEL RUNS WHICH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING                
ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. I WILL            
NOT BRING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO DTW/DET UNTIL AFTER 14Z                  
TUESDAY WHEN WARM AIR ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.              
FOR THE TIME BEING... BASED ON WANING LIFT IN THE NORTH... WILL                 
LEAVE FNT AND MBS DRY AFTER 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CEILINGS                
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES. BASED ON THE LOCATION             
OF STRONGEST LIFT... CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER AT DTW             
AND DET IN COMPARISON TO FNT AND MBS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 350 PM.                                                
STORM SYSTEM OVER SW MISSOURI TO TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY                  
TONIGHT...DELIVERING A BURST OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN             
GREAT LAKES. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290 K) LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING             
AROUND 9Z OVER SW LOWER...AND AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB OVER 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN                
BORDER...WITH AROUND 3 G/KG OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.                        
BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z ETA/GFS. ETA INDICATING TWO DISTANT                 
REGIONS OF LIFT (SEE 700 MB OMEGA)...ONE IN THE NORTH (KLDM-KMBS)               
AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN THE TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.                 
24 HOUR (18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY) QPF TOTALS OUT OF GFS RANGE FROM 5             
HUNDREDTHS NORTH TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH SOUTH. 12Z MESOETA IS A LOT             
MORE BULLISH WITH QPF FARTHER NORTH...INDICATING 0.15 INCHES TO 0.35            
INCHES NORTH OF I-94. EVEN SO...ETA BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE                    
SATURATION WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW -10 C ISOTHERM...THUS WOULD NOT              
EXPECT HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.                                              
ALL SOUNDINGS (GFS/ETA/NGM/UKMET) POINT TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF I-94               
TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH WARM AIR COMING IN THE 2000 TO 5000 FOOT LAYER            
TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND/OR CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                 
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS WINTRY                     
MIX...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR I-94 CORRIDOR AND                
POINTS SOUTH. EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS.             
HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY'S FARTHER NORTH...AS THE PRECIPITATION                 
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY ACCUMULATIONS OF            
1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ZONES NORTH OF I-94...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.             
LIFT EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING                  
BUILDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
SUPPORTS A MENTION OF DRIZZLE...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF               
I-96 AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SAME PROBLEMS REMAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT INTO THE AREA             
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND             
EVEN A CHANCE AT FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING IF TIMING OF THAT                
WAVE MATCHES UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES OF 30 OR SO. THE WINDOW               
FOR THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY           
CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR                
THAT MATTER.                                                                    
THE CONSENSUS ON THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACTUALLY              
DOES SUGGEST MOST OF THE QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES           
ARE BASICALLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.              
WILL BREAK OUT THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD FOR EVENING FREEZING RAIN MENTION           
NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA...AND CONTINUE WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT. LIKELY POPS             
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CARRY 60-70 POPS FOR              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...BY AND LARGE...LIKELY. ATTM...             
IT APPEARS THAT "EVENT" NUMBER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD LINGER INTO              
EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A RELATIVELY CALM DAYTIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED            
BY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. WILL              
NOT GET CUTE THOUGH...AS TIMING IN SUCH A SITUATION SEEMS FUTILE.               
BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME.             
HERE...SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF              
EXPANDING ARCTIC TROF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT SURFACE              
LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS ALONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES            
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMES A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN              
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS THE TAIL              
END OF THIS (OR MORE APPROPRIATELY...THE TRAILING AREA OF PRECIP W/             
UPPER VORT) TURNING TO SNOW ON THURSDAY.                                        
WILL MAINTAIN EARLY MORNING HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS            
DOWN INTO THE TEENS/20S BY EVENING. THIS DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DROP              
WILL COME ON VERY GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY ON INTO THE EVENING.                
WILL UP WINDS A BIT...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD               
SHAPE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN               
ARE FORECAST...WITH THAT STRONG OF A PRESSURE SURGE (+18MB RISES IN             
THE 6 HOUR PERIOD MIDDAY THURSDAY ON AVERAGE.                                   
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON DOWN FROM THERE AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN ON             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES HERE. JUST EDGED THE                  
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT MORE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A VERY            
SLOW MODERATION NEXT WEEK. EVEN SO...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN                      
PLACE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW            
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER            
CHANCES IN EVERY DAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-076-082-083...FROM MIDNIGHT              
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.                                                   
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF/DEG/SC                                                                       
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT AND PCPN                  
TYPE/COVERAGE WED INTO WED NIGHT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO COLD WAVE            
FOR LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE NRN                
CONUS ATOP A RDG ACRS THE SE. TROFFING REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH               
POTENT SHRTWV/VORT STILL LURKING OFF THE NRN CA COAST.                          
AT THE SFC...NW FLOW LINGERED BTWN LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC AND A RDG            
FROM NRN MN TO OH. RADAR INDICATED MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS             
ALIGNED WITH 300 FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST              
AS WINDS BACK MORE WRLY.                                                        
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW AND              
THE NE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING TIL SFC-H8 RDG BUILD INTO THE AREA               
BUT THEN END QUICKLY AS THE WINDS BACK. AFTER LES FADES...ATTENTION             
TURNS TO BAND OF -SN PROGGED TO BRUSH SRN UPR MI. MODERATE TO STRONG            
700-600 FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE SOUTH SUPPORTED BY            
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET. HOWEVER...ONLY S MNM COUNTY WOULD BE                  
AFFECTED AND ONLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED AS ETA/GFS MEASURABLE PCPN               
LINE REMAINS NEAR THE BORDER.                                                   
TUE...THE ETA DEPICTS BAND OF WEAK TO MODERATE 700-600 MB                       
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER NRN H3 JET              
OVER NRN ONTARIO...SINCE THE FORCING IS ONLY MARINGAL AND THE ETA               
HAS NOT DISPLAYED ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES MENTIONED OVER THE E 2/3 OF              
THE CWA.                                                                        
TUE NIGHT...A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH               
UPR LVL DIV IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF YET ANOTHER H3 JET STREAK WILL                 
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACRS UPR MI. DECENT 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH               
3-4 G/KG AVBL AND 4-6 HR PERIOD OF SNOW WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS              
AROUND 3 INCHES. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH ETA/GFS QPF NEAR 0.25             
INCHES AND SNOW/WATER RATIO NEAR 15/1. ETA PROG OF STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND STRONG OMEGA IN -12C TO -17C LYR MAY BRING               
LCLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AOA 5 INCHES IF THE 12Z ETA VERIFIES. ENOUGH                
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE AND IF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD                   
DEVELOP SO THAT MORE MODERATE POPS/AMOUNTS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.              
WED INTO WED NIGHT...MDLS REMAIN DIVIDED WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO              
AS THE GFS DEPICTS EARLIER/STRONGER PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN                      
STREAMS WHILE THE ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET EITHER DELAY OR DO NOT MERGE               
SRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE TROF. AS A RESULT THE GFS (AND ENSEMBLE              
MEAN) IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSH OF WARMER AIR AND PCPN INTO UPR              
MI WITH THE 1305M 1000-850 LINE AND 0C H8 ISOTHERM TO NEAR IRON                 
RIVER TO BIG BAY LINE BY 00Z/THU. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS                   
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH REGARD TO TEMP PRFL THROUGH CNTRL UPR MI.               
THE UKMET/ETA WITH A FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM TROF KEEP                
THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR ALONG LAKE              
MI. THE CMC/ETA/UKMET SCENARIO WOULD ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY LESS              
PCPN INTO UPR MI WITH MAINLY A RAIN BAND DEVELOPING TO THE SE. AT               
THIS POINT FCST LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BTWN THE ETA/UKMET AND               
THE GFS. WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...LITTLE CHANGE WAS             
MADE TO THE GOING FCST WHICH INCLUDES ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW            
OVER THE CNTRL PORTION (RAIN FAR SE) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.                                                
THU...VERY STRONG CAA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC             
AIR POURS IN. WRLY GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE AND SHSN WILL               
INTENSIFY OVER NW UPR MI WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING                 
SNOW. CYCLONIC WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER LES ALONG THE SHORE              
NE OF MUNISING. OTHERWISE...SCT -SHSN OR FLURRIES.                              
FRI-MON...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE GRT            
LAKES WITH H8 TEMPS TO AT LEAST -25 TO -30C (PER THE ECMWF) OR EVEN             
-30 TO -35C (PER GFS BY 12Z SAT). THE UKMET DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY LESS             
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH DEEPEST COLD AIR REMAINING FARTHER NORTH.                
EVEN WITH HEDGE TOWARD ECMWF...GIVEN TYPICAL GFS COLD BIAS...BRUTAL             
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY INTO THE ADVY/WARNING               
CATEGORY FROM FRI INTO SAT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN BLO 0F               
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI TIL SUN WHEN SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED. LES               
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY W TO WNW               
FLOW ALTHOUGH WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWVS WILL BRING SOME OSCILLATION IN               
THE WIND PATTERN. WITH SUCH COLD AIR...MICROPHYSICS FOR SNOW GROWTH             
WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ALTHOUGH IF SOME STRONGER                
BANDS SET UP...PERIODS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATION RATES MAY BE                      
POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...EVEN FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS...AMOUNTS SHOULD              
STAY AT OR BLO 2-4 INCHES/12 HRS. WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST              
IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...FREQUENT/PERSISTENT LOW VSBYS EXPECTED THOUGH.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT LES TODAY...CHC OF SNOW AGAIN TUE                   
NIGHT...PTYPE CONCERNS WED AND THEN SEVERE ARCTIC OUTBREAK LAST HALF            
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM            
LAST NIGHT NOW LIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK MID LVL RDG                   
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MID-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED                
LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL GET PROPELLED INTO SW STATES BY LATE              
TUE AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA.                 
TODAY...3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LES BANDS OVER               
LAKE SUPERIOR DVLPG IN CAA WNW FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO               
QUEBEC. BOTH ETA AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW INVERSION HGTS             
OF AROUND 3KFT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN BLO INVERSION. TEMPS            
AT BASE OF INVERSION FALL TO AROUND -15C TO -16C THIS MORNING SO                
EXPECT LES WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEVELOPED BTWN 12-16Z. WITH LOW               
INVERSION AND DRY AIR UPSTREAM...BELIEVE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE                  
LIMITED TO AROUND AN INCH OVER ONT-CMX-KEW COUNTIES AND 1-2" OVER               
ALGER-LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. REST OF COUNTIES WILL SEE              
SCT -SHSN OR FLURRIES WILL A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.                           
LES WILL WIND DOWN AND END THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES                 
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WINDS BACK TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION.               
WILL KEEP WITH GOING FCST OF LOWS FALLING TO A FEW DEGREES BLO ZERO             
OVER WRN INTERIOR WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR DECENT                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
GENERALLY MODELS SHOW SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING BACK W INTO THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS THE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE               
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK NE INTO THE LWR MI TUE NIGHT                    
SPREADING WAA SNOW INTO CWA AT THAT TIME. INCLUDED LOW CHC POPS FOR             
SNOW OVER WRN COUNTIES WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR E AND SE.                         
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING TOWARD A PHASING OF JET STREAM ENERGY AND            
DEVELOPMENT OF STORM SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS               
SOLN WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN CONFINED TO SE OVER ERN                
COUNTIES OF CWA. FOR NOW KEPT IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING FOR CENTRAL              
AND ERN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT...WITH STRAIGHT SNOW              
FOR THE WEST. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SCALE BACK MIXED PCPN EVEN              
FARTHER EAST GIVEN THESE RECENT MODEL TRENDS.                                   
ARCTIC AIR AND BITTER COLD TEMPS STILL POISED TO MOVE INTO AREA THU             
NIGHT INTO SUN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ALL TIME RECORD LOW               
TEMPS CHALLENGED FRI NIGHT AS 06Z GFS SHOWS -30C OR COLDER 850 MB               
TEMPS OVER REGION AND 1056 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1000 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOME PRETTY SIG SHORT TERM CHANGES COMING BY 1630Z. WILL BE                     
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING POPS ACRS MUCH OF SRN MN INTO THE METRO IN             
WRN WISC FOR THIS AFTN EVE IN ACCORD WITH NEW 12Z ETA12 AND 12Z RUC.            
EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF 1-3" OF SNOW.                                           
12Z MDLS SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF             
DEPARTING H3 JET. 2-3 G/KG PER 295K WITH 4 G/KG JUST TO OUR                     
SOUTHWEST. WEAK H7 S/W TROF TO MOV OUT OF CNTL PLAINS INTO IA...WITH            
MID LVL LOW BACKING A BIT PROVIDING BETTER WAA AND LIFT INTO THE                
DEPARTING MID LVL FRONTAL ZONE DEPARTING UNDR UPR JET. RESULT IS                
SOME VERY NICE 2D FRONTO FORCING AT H7/H6 LIFTING NORTHEAST ACRS CWA            
THIS AFTN/EVE. DENDRITIC GROWTH IDEAL AND COLD LLVL AIRMASS SUGGESTS            
SNOW WL BE FLUFFY AND SIT NICE YIELDING ACCUMULATIONS UNDER HI                  
SNW/WTR EQUIVALENTS. CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS FIELD               
OVER SRN MN/WRN WI INDICATES SOME NICE -EPV* IN THE HEART THE                   
LIFTING ZONE WHICH ALSO IS WHERE THE IDEAL DENDRITIC TEMPS EXIST. SO            
SOME A NARROW BAND OF MORE INTENSE LIFT COULD YIELD A 3" ACCUM. THIS            
SEEMS LIKELY SRN METRO IN WRN WI THIS EVE. COULD BE A MESSY EVENING             
RUSH IN METRO.                                                                  
THINK BAND OF SNOW ON MPX 88-D OVR WRN MN/ERN SD WL CONT TO SPREAD              
EAST WITH MUCH IT GOING INTO SATN THRU EARLY AFTN WITH SCT SW--. BY             
MID/LATE AFTN...WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFT...SNOW                
SHOULD INCREASE AS BAND ELONGATES BACK INTO WRN MN.                             
WILL BE UPDATING HWO. TOMORROW LOOKING VERY INTERESTING AS WELL. NOT            
WHAT WE NEED RIGHT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
935 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES.                          
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPSTREAM               
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET PROVIDING AREAS              
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN THIRD STARTING OUT             
COLDER THAN EXPECTED. LITTLE HELP FROM RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AS            
ONLY SLIGHT MIXING EXPECTED. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK HOWEVER WILL NEED            
TO KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH CLOSER TO RUC GUIDANCE WHICH             
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
915 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG FRONT RESUMING SLOW S-WARD DRIFT BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE              
MOVEMENT A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODEL PROGS. WILL USE RUC TO TIME WIND            
SHIFT AND TEMP BREAK INTO SW OK AND S OF OKC AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS EXTENDED S TO ABOUT I-40 AS VISIBILITY HAS                
FALLEN TO 1/4MI OR LESS IN PARTS OF OKC AREA. ONLY OTHER VISIBILITY             
PROBLEMS CURRENTLY ARE IN NW OK...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH VARIABILITY               
THAT AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD EXIST MOST ANYWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT.             
THUS WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF N OK. MAY NEED TO WATCH             
DEVELOPING -FZDZ IN NW OK - ERRONEOUSLY BEING REPORTED AS SNOW AT               
WWD - FOR POSSIBLE CHANGE WO WINTER WX ADVY IF ICING ADDS TO TRAVEL             
PROBLEMS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  47  40  52 /  20  20  20  40                              
HOBART OK         37  50  45  53 /  10  10  20  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  66  52  66 /  10  10  20  40                              
GAGE OK           27  36  32  34 /  20  20  20  30                              
PONCA CITY OK     29  36  30  43 /  20  20  20  40                              
DURANT OK         59  68  55  71 /  10  10  20  50                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
307 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH SOMEWHAT TODAY. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH                
FURTHER SOUTH TONITE THAN LAST NITE. HOW FAR SOUTH IS STILL                     
UNCERTAIN. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE ETA12/RUC FRONTAL POSITION SINCE             
SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE FRONT TODAY. FRONT WILL CONT TO                
WAFFLE ACROSS THE CWA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS              
WESTERN U.S. MAKING TEMPS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST...WITH A LARGE                
RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS CWA. FOG/-DZ EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT                    
TONITE... WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. DENSE FOG WILL                
CONT TO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE DENSE              
FOG ADVSY FOR NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO EXTEND                  
SOUTHWARD BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION WILL LET EVENING             
SHIFT MONITOR. BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG LATER TONITE MAY BE NEAR               
THE FRONT WHERE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MOIST AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY               
SOUTH OF FRONT.                                                                 
UPR LOW FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK. TIMING AND                 
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE ETA SLOWER AND              
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...SHWRS AND SOME TSTMS ARE                  
POSSIBLE TUES NITE THRU WED NITE. FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS                  
NORTHERN OK TUES NITE/WED...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SN BEFORE ENDING             
WED NITE. BELIEVE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL STAY LIQUID FOR MOST OF               
THE AREA WITH A BRIEF CHANGE TO FZRA/SN IN SOME LOCATIONS BEFORE                
ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND DRY AIR MOVES IN. COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE ACROSS THE FA LATE WED/WED NITE WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO             
THE FA THURS BRINGING ARCTIC AIR TO THE FA THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA            
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH ARCTIC AIR DIFFICULT TO ERODE AND THE BIAS IN            
MODELS TO GET RID OF THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS QUICKER THAN USUAL...HAVE             
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE THRU THE WEEKEND.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  47  40  52 /  20  20  20  40                              
HOBART OK         41  50  45  53 /  10  10  20  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  66  52  66 /  10  10  20  40                              
GAGE OK           30  36  32  34 /  20  20  20  30                              
PONCA CITY OK     30  36  30  43 /  20  20  20  40                              
DURANT OK         58  68  55  71 /  10  10  20  50                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT OKZ004>013.                                     
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
941 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
FOG IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO              
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. RIDGE ALOFT AND AT SFC WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT            
FEATURE TODAY. MAY TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS BUT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK                   
GOOD. WILL UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND CLEAN UP                  
WORDING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 346 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
LATEST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG                  
DEVELOPING INTO CLT METRO AREA AND PERSISTING UNTIL 15Z. WILL ISSUE             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM CONCORD TO GASTONIA TO CHESTER THROUGH 10               
AM.                                                                             
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 205 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT AN AREA OF                     
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO THE                
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD             
PENETRATE INLAND CLOSE TO THE CLT METRO AREA BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL             
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT            
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG DECK SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE                   
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
STRATOCUMULUS IS ALSO ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH TN THIS                
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES                   
TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT                    
MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRY UP AS IT HITS THE                    
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY...LEAVING MAINLY HIGH                     
CLOUDINESS IN THE SWIFT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE BULK OF THE SKY                      
COVER.                                                                          
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT SHOULD LAY OVER JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST                
AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON                    
TUESDAY. MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED            
MAINLY TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL            
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS BY TUE AFTN.                            
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN EARNEST WED...WITH A STRENGTHENING                   
ATLANTIC RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE...AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN             
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID                 
WEEK.                                                                           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
SHARP FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN                   
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CENTER MOVES                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GFS CONTINUES TO FEATURE A FASTER FROPA                 
THAN ADVERTISED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PUSH             
UP CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THU IN THE MTNS AND THU NIGHT IN THE            
PIEDMONT...ALLOWING FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE CHC                  
PRECIP MENTION INTO FRIDAY AND KEEP MTN PTYPE LIQUID GIVEN GFS                  
TENDENCY TO COOL THINGS DOWN TOO QUICKLY.                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS ACRS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN              
AND EXPANDING NWWD. ETA BLYR RH PROGS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON             
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADS HI RH VALUES INTO THE CLT METRO                 
BY DAYBREAK. 00Z ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING VERY FAVORABLE LLVL            
PROFILE FOR LIFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. IT IS            
ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS                 
INDICATING ANY TYPE OF FOG AT KCLT THIS MORNING...EVEN THE MET. WILL            
FEATURE SOME MEASURE OF IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT CLT FOR THE PREDAWN.             
AT KAVL...THE 00Z TREND FOR THE PRE-DAWN HAS BEEN DRIER WITH MORE               
LLVL MIXING AND NW SFC WIND. 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ACRS THE BOARD              
BAILS OUT ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG WITH PREVIOUSLY HARD HITTING FWC/MAV            
NOW P6SM ALL NIGHT. LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WRN AND CNTL TN              
ADVANCING EASTWARD FASTER THAN M-ETA HAS PROGD. MAY HAVE SCT CLOUDS             
ENCROACHING ON KAND AND KGSP EARLY THIS MORNING.                                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
907 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREA OF MIXED PRECIP MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST ACROSS                    
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND COULD BRUSH SUX AREA IN 05Z-09Z            
TIMEFRAME.  HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF -FZRA WITH THIS PRECIP...BUT              
MAY IN SOUTHERN PORTION WITH KANW HAVING REPORTED --SN AS THE ECHOES            
PASSED OVER THAT SITE A COUPLE HOURS AGO.  00Z KOAX RAOB LOOKS GOOD             
FOR -FZRA POTENTIAL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH WARM LAYER REACHING +5C.            
HOWEVER LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS FOR KSUX HAVE WARM LAYER ONLY TOPPING            
OUT AT +1C...WITH SUBFREEZING LAYER BENEATH THIS A LITTLE OVER 3KFT             
DEEP AND COOLING TO AS MUCH AS -10C.  THUS WOULD THINK IF ANY PRECIP            
MAKES IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD BE -SN OR -PL               
RATHER THAN -FZRA.  HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THIS TO FAR                 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 09Z...BUT BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD            
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH 00Z ETA QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.25 SEEMS            
A LITTLE OVERDONE.  AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...SOUNDINGS STILL                  
SUPPORT SMALL CHANCE OF -FZDZ AS LOW STRATUS EXPANDS INTO THE AREA.             
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD             
COVER...BUT HOURLY TEMPS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL...AND STILL            
QUITE A BIT OF NIGHT LEFT SO WILL LEAVE LOW TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.                
QUICK GLANCE AT 00Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GOING FORECAST OF                  
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH LOWEST IN THE FAR SOUTH...            
ALTHOUGH TIMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GOING FORECAST WITH ETA NOT                
GIVING MOST AREAS MUCH OF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTERNOON. WITH ETA                  
FORECAST OF UPPER WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED IN FAR               
NORTHERN CWA OR EVEN FARTHER NORTH...SRN AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE            
THAN AFOREMENTIONED CHANCE OF -FZDZ.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT              
THIS TIME GIVEN ONLY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...BUT IF 00Z GFS SUPPORTS               
ETA SOLUTION...MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO DROP POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH            
AND SLOW DOWN ONSET OF PRECIP A FEW HOURS.                                      
UPDATED GRIDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SENT...AND WILL HAVE UPDATED ZFP            
OUT SOON.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER             
06Z-08Z TIMEFRAME...WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN -SN OR -FZDZ/BR ALSO            
POSSIBLE IN KSUX AND KFSD AREAS AFT 09Z. MVFR-OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN            
-SN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY KHON/KFSD AREAS AFT 15Z...AS               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES JUST NORTH OF KHON.  SMALLER CHANCE OF -SN              
IN KSUX...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS/VSBYS STILL LIKELY WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE              
THROUGH 00Z.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 HACKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
846 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED BAND OF               
SNOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KMSP THROUGH THE KEAU AREA...THEN INTO EAST             
CENTRAL WI. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING            
AS SEEN IN RUC AND ETA. BAND OF SNOW ACTUALLY ESTABLISHED ITSELF A              
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN 18Z ETA HAD INDICATED.                                   
RUC AND ETA SUPPORT FORCING TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT.                 
FURTHER SOUTH...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW              
MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHWEST WI             
AND ADJACENT ZONES OF NORTHEAST IOWA. OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST                
AREA...APPEARS NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH FORCING               
EITHER EXITING OR REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                  
UPDATED ZONES WERE ISSUED AT 0232Z AND LATEST TRENDS ALSO REFLECTED             
IN DATA BASE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                    
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS SET WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES TO SORT OUT...DUE MAINLY TO               
INFLUENCE OF BOTH SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS                  
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO QUIETER BUT               
MUCH...MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY END OF WEEK.                                      
UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG UPPER JET EXITING            
GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS TO THE             
SOUTH...FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO KANSAS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE              
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 19Z. COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORT WAVE                
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND LIFT GENERATED FROM RIGHT EXIT               
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET IS PRODUCING BANDS OF SNOW FROM EASTERN               
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK               
FORCING EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE AREA OF              
DEVELOPING SNOW THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.               
THIS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED SO HAVE SHIFTED POPS AND            
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SATURATE               
LAYERS AND MINIMIZE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IN SOUTHERN FORECAST                
AREAS. VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPE SCHEMES SUGGEST JUST SNOW THROUGH             
12Z TUESDAY.                                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHALLENGE AS ANOTHER                 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN FLOW AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES.                     
Q-G CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY DEEP AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...BUT               
NOT VERY STRONG. BEST FORCING MOVES JUST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA             
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH TO FOCUS ON ELSEWHERE                 
EXCEPT AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS...ICE SOURCE...MOVE AWAY FROM PASSING             
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND WARMING IN LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE...MAY SEE              
MORE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOCKED STRATUS LAYER.                         
DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN SHORT TERM MODELS WITH HANDLING OF STRONG                 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MID-WEEK. 12Z               
GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND FASTER THAN ETA. COMPROMISE                    
PROBABLY IN ORDER BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH EJECTING SOUTHWEST                  
SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS SEASON. IN ANY EVENT...MUCH STRONGER FORCING                
EXPECTED WITH THIS AS IT MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE            
WEDNESDAY. ASSUMING SURFACE LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST              
AREA...BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN                
COUNTIES OR SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVELS LIKELY WARM                  
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN IN THAT AREA BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. MIX OF                
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THERE...WITH SNOW LIKELY SETTING            
UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY              
EVENING. IN FACT...GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THIS               
AREA COULD SETUP SNOW BAND AND THEN ADVANCE IT SOUTHEAST WITH SYSTEM            
BY THURSDAY MORNING.                                                            
BIG STORY AFTER THAT IS FALLING TEMPERATURES. STRONG COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN EARLY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY                  
FALLING ALL DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CUT OFF EARLY ON THURSDAY AS                
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.                                                          
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP IN LONGER TERM WITH VERY COLD AIR IN             
PLACE FOR FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOME PLACES MAY               
PRODUCE EVEN COLDER READINGS. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDED            
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW FLURRIES ON                 
FRIDAY BUT BIG NEWS WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE              
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.IA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
345 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FL ZONES UNTIL 9 AM...                       
.CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND             
COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND CONDITIONS             
WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALACHUA...MARION             
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AROUND 1AM. WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE FLAGLER                  
COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AROUND ZFP ISSUANCE TIME.                                
HIGH CLOUDS BLANKET MUCH OF OUR GA ZONES AND N FL ZONES WHERE LITTLE            
FOG IS REPORTED...AND BELIEVE THAT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH           
DAWN SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE CURRENT LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST OF            
OUR ZONES. THE RUC40 1000-500MB MEAN LAYER FLOW INDICATES THE MEAN              
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH AN AXIS THROUGH             
CENTRAL FL. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TX IS ADVANCING EAST AND                   
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS AND DEW PTS ARE           
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA THIS HOUR...WITH DEW PT DEPRESSIONS              
ONLY 1-2 DEG.                                                                   
.SHORT TERM...FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED                   
FOLLOWING DAY BREAK AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND              
SSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. ONCE THE LOW CIGS CLEAR...HIGH               
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S AS             
UPPER LVL FLOW REMAINS WSW KEEPING THICKNESS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST            
REGION. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV           
MOS FOR MAXES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT EXPECT                  
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT INCREASING LOW LVL WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. MINS WILL BE             
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED MIXING AND CLOUD             
COVER.                                                                          
WED AND WED NIGHT...WARM SLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS A LONG             
WAVE TROUGH DIVES OVER THE PLAINS AND SHUNTS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE                 
FURTHER EAST WHILE AMPLIFYING ITS AXIS ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION                
WILL BE IN FULL FORCE LATE WED DESPITE CLOUD COVER WITH MAX TEMPS IN            
THE MID TO UPR 70S AND MINS WARMING INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. BOTH           
THE GFS AND ETA CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PRE-FRONTAL PIECE OF POSITIVE           
VORTICITY AND SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ROTATING OVER THE FL                   
PENINSULA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY             
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 20% OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
THU...THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION AND NEARS OUR              
WESTERN GA ZONES THU EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL              
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS TO THE LOCAL                   
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...              
THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND AS THE            
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND             
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB WINDS 25-30 KTS MIXING DOWN TO THE                
SFC.                                                                            
.LONG TERM...BOTH THE DGEX AND GFS SHOW A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE               
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WAVE             
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A VERY STRONG               
1040MB HIGH BRIDGES THE FRONT FRI-SAT AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-            
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FL. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND               
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCAL NORTHEASTER TYPE CONDITIONS TO A           
GOOD PORTION OF OUR FL ZONES SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE PARTLY CLOUDY              
CONDITIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES                
WITH ENSEMBLE...MEX GUIDANCE...AND GRIDDED FIELDS HOLDING ONTO                  
INGREDIENTS FOR AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT. MEANWHILE OVER OUR GA ZONES              
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR IS POSSIBLE INLAND WHERE TEMPS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE 50S SAT AND 20S SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH TO             
THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WHILE MEAN               
LAYER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPING           
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS BY WED NIGHT AS          
FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE EVEN                
STRONGER WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE FRIDAY THEN BECOME           
NE 25 TO 30 KT ON SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG 73 52 77 56 / 00 10 10 10                                                   
SSI 71 56 73 59 / 00 10 10 20                                                   
JAX 76 55 77 60 / 00 10 10 20                                                   
SGJ 74 59 75 63 / 00 10 10 20                                                   
GNV 78 53 79 59 / 00 10 10 20                                                   
OCF 78 55 79 59 / 00 10 10 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FLZ036-037-040.                            
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...ENYEDI                                                                 
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
315 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
WILL BE EXTENDING THE END TIME FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO                      
END AT 18 UTC. ONLY NWP CLOSEST TO CURRENT SFC/88D TRENDS IS                    
THE RUC20 AS THE ETA IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC THRU H925. AN INVERTED              
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA, CLEARLY RESOLVED BY THE NRN                          
IL/IN MESONET STATIONS, HAS PLAYED HAVOC WITH THE SFC TEMPS AND                 
AS A RESULT PRECIP TYPES/DURATION. THE TROUGH HAS SLIPPED                       
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PAST 8 HRS INHIBITING SFC TEMP WARM                     
UP. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND APPARENTLY ALONG THE H85 STRENGTHENING              
BAROLCINIC AND CONFLUENCE ZONE, A PERSISTENT MESOBAND OF SN                     
CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I88. THUS FAR UNDER               
THAT BAND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURNEE, 4                 
AT LAKE VILLA AND 3.5 INCHES 7-8 MILES WNW OF RFD. IT APPEARS THE               
THAT BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETWEEN RFD TO UGN FOR ANOTHER FEW                 
HRS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED 6/7" AMOUNTS BASED                 
ON THE AFOREMENTION REPORTS. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WARNING GIVEN                
THE ISOLATED NATURE RESIDING WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER                          
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP IS                    
NOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNRISE...WITH SCATTERED PRECIP                  
CONTINUING THRU THE DAY WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FG/BR. TEMPS SHOULD                
SLOWLY WARM BUT HAVE HELD MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NW                       
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THAT AREA WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO                  
WARM ABOUT 32F. FROM THERE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA FROM TONIGHT                 
THRU THR MORNING AS THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS               
SFC FEATURES VS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-MIDLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.                
TONIGHT NW IN STANDS TO RECEIVE THE LARGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AS                   
THE NEXT S/WV PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF                     
FG FOR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT WILL                
SEE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LAST IN THE RECENT SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS.               
MODEL QPFS PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL                     
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL HOIST AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE                  
CWA VALID 00 UTC THR TO 12 UTC THR AS RUNOFF ATOP THE RESIDUAL                  
SNOW PACK, BLOCKED DRAINS/CULVERTS, AND/OR THE CURRENT HIGH SOIL                
MOISTURE COULD CAUSE LOW SPOTS TO FILL WITH WATER.                              
SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SN LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG                   
COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT. -SHSN LINGER               
INTO THRU MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT THE                  
COLD EXTEND PERIODS IN TACT THIS GO AROUND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ST DECK MOVING INTO TAF AREA ATTM. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER               
THROUGH 06Z. 88D SHOWS PRECIP MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF                   
CWA. HIGH DBZ RETURNS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE IS LQIUID COATED ICE SO               
MAY SEEN SOME ICE PELLETS AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT INITIATION.                   
THOUGH CANT CUT THE CHEESE THIS CLOSE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT                
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SOUTHERN TAFS WHILE                  
ITS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW AND ICE PELLETS IN NORTHERN TAFS.                   
MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS OVER BY 12Z. SEE NO REASON FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO               
IMPROVE THROUGH 00Z WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING 90+ RH IN LOWER                 
LAYERS THROUGH WED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...WINTER WX ADVSRY UNTIL NOON TUES ROUGHLY N STREATOR-KVPZ                  
LINE.                                                                           
.IN...WINTER WX ADVSRY UNTIL  NOON TUES FOR  LAKE/PORTER                        
COUNTIES.                                                                       
.LK MI...                                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
408 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INITIAL WAVE/I295 CROSS ISALLOBARIC FLOW GENERATING ADVISORY LEVEL              
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA AS FAIRLY FAST MOVING. IN                   
MICHIGAN CURRENTLY BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH               
900-700 MB INITIAL DRY LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR             
SNOW WITH ONE REPORT OF NEAR 2 INCHES ALREADY NEAR STATE LINE. HAVE             
CHANGED HEADLINE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MICHIGAN                        
COUNTIES...FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY              
WITH A MENTION OF BRIEF PL/SN MIX. BUT PRIMARILY ZR AS PTYPE. IN                
WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS AM...IN MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE COLUMN REVERT TO            
FZRA PROFILE PER RUC/GFS SOUNDINGS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT                     
LIFT/COOLING. KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO A BIT BELOW COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE WITH SNOW/ICE COVER AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL BAROCLINIC ZONE              
SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN ETA. PREFERENCE LIES MORE TOWARD                  
CONSISTENT GFS WITH THIS RESPECT. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER STRONGER                
SHOT OF I300 LIFT WITH GOOD MOISTURE TAP OF 5-6.5 G/KG ACROSS LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT CATEGORICAL BUT NO              
CHANCE TO BEAT MAV WITH 97-100 POPS. FOCUS SHIFTS LATER TONIGHT WITH            
QPF/WARMING TEMPS TO START OF RUNOFF/FLOOD ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD               
SWE OF 1-2 INCHES PLUS ACROSS CWA AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD BASIN               
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS                
HAVE ISSUES FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE               
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
PATTERN...THE NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL FLIP              
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MID WINTER POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BY THE END OF               
THIS WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PNA INDEX FORECAST SHOWING HIGH                    
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. A STRONG PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW              
NOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST             
US AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A                
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CUTTING                  
THROUGH THE LAKES WED NGT AND THURS. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO            
PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TAKE UP ITS TYPICAL MID WINTER                     
RESIDENCE NEAR HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN             
FORECAST OF THE NAO AND AO INDICES INDICATING A GENERAL TREND                   
TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO BY LATE JANUARY SUGGESTING             
THAT THE COLDER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO LOCK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE CONUS.                                                                      
DEEP SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON WED.                
925MB TEMPS SOAR TO +12C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S EVEN WITH                
PURELY MOIST ADIABATIC MIXING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE MOIST AND AMPLE              
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOW 50S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH. INGREDIENTS              
COMING TOGETHER FOR A HEALTHY PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT. PLUME OF                
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CWA WITH PWATS OF OVER 1                 
INCH. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ADVANCING MID               
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH                
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE A BAND OF DEEP              
LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO              
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND              
50.                                                                             
STRONG FROPA THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/CANADIAN GEM/ETA IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WITH THE FRONT BISECTING THE             
CWA AT 12Z THURS. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THIS            
MAKES THE MAX TEMP FORECAST INTERESTING FOR THURSDAY AS JUST A FEW              
HOURS IN TIMING WILL MAKE A 20+F DIFFERENCE. WILL START TEMPS OFF IN            
THE UPPER 40S EAST TO MID/UPPER 30S WEST WITH FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY             
IN VERY STRONG CAA REGIME. BEST FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST OF THE              
CWA DURING THE MORNING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EAST                
THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO CHANCE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY             
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT.                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL                   
DOMINATE THE CWA. NO WEATHER TO WORRY ABOUT SYNOPTICALLY...SO OUR               
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS IN THE                
-20C TO -24C RANGE POURING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURS NGT THROUGH               
SAT NGT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WESTERLY FLOW WITH                      
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY LIMITED AMBIENT MOISTURE.             
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SHORT FETCH AND SPARSE                  
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORTWAVES              
AND SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT CAN                 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP AT TIMES IN THIS KIND OF            
PATTERN. THESE SHORTWAVES CANNOT BE TIMED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FOR              
NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN COUNTIES FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW                  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUB ZERO LOW TEMPS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. BEST CHANCE             
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER 88D AND RUC/ETA BEST SHOT OF UVM ACROSS SBN AREA NEXT FEW HOURS             
WITH MIX SNPL WITH DYNAMIC COOLING OF LAYER. THEN COLUMN WARMS FOR              
MORE FZRA PROFILE. KEPT FWA ALL RAIN. CIGS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD               
TREND AND HAVE LIFR MOST OF DAY WITH SATURATED COLUMN NORTH OF WARM             
FRONT AND UPSTREAM OBS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PRIMARILY LIFR. LATER            
TONIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF BETTER UVM WITH HEAVIER RAIN...THOUGH BETTER            
MIXING MAY BRING CIGS UP A BIT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES                              
INZ003>009...INZ012...INZ014...INZ016.                                          
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES MIZ077>081.                 
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES                              
OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                                                        
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MURPHY                                                    
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER 88D AND RUC/ETA BEST SHOT OF UVM ACROSS SBN AREA NEXT FEW HOURS             
WITH MIX SNPL WITH DYNAMIC COOLING OF LAYER. THEN COLUMN WARMS FOR              
MORE FZRA PROFILE. KEPT FWA ALL RAIN. CIGS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD               
TREND AND HAVE LIFR MOST OF DAY WITH SATURATED COLUMN NORTH OF WARM             
FRONT AND UPSTREAM OBS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PRIMARILY LIFR. LATER            
TONIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF BETTER UVM WITH HEAVIER RAIN...THOUGH BETTER            
MIXING MAY BRING CIGS UP A BIT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DICEY SITUATION THIS EVENING W/MARGINAL TEMPS IN PLACE AHD OF ROBUST            
MID LVL SW TROF UPSTREAM OVR IL. LG SCALE JET SEGMENT OVR LKS                   
PROGGED TO AID INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE THROUGH 12Z ALG              
E-W ORIENTED THERMAL TROF. ALREADY SIG PRECIP DVLPMNT OCCURRING BACK            
W OVR ERN IA/WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO RAMPING LG SCALE LIFT. DILEMMA               
LIES W/MARGINAL TEMPS ATTM BUT ARRIVAL OF SIG PRECIP W/UPR 20                   
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SHLD ALLOW FOR SOME DIABATIC ADJUSTMENT TO SFC               
TEMPS TO BELOW FREEZING WITHIN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA. ZONE UPDATE               
OUT SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHLD SEE WIDESPREAD UP             
TO 1/4 INCH AMTS WITHIN ADVISORY AREA OVERNIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV.DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                                   
WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREA NORTH OF A KNOX TO                   
DEFIANCE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU TUESDAY MIDDAY. EXPECT SHORT WAVE             
OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE NWWD OVER THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. IT             
WILL CAUSE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS-BEST WITH LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION-SUGGEST AIR TO               
WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN BLO.               
THUS PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN               
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY LINE...BUT NORTH OF THAT LINE COULD START AS              
SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING MIX. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH             
OF MELTED PRECIP...SO ICE ACCRUALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WL            
CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT RAIN              
TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORT WAVES                 
MOVES INTO AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA INCHES            
NWD.                                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY                  
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THEN ON                 
WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HAVE A LOWER POP              
CHANCE IN THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN THE EXITING WARM FRONT AND AN               
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY A LOW            
AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THEN RAIN WILL COME              
BACK INTO THE PICTURE AS THAT COLD FRONT AND LOW GET CLOSER LATER               
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE             
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WITH THE                 
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT; BUT INDICATIONS FOR THUNDER ARE RATHER               
WEAK. MAINLY JUST RAIN. BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. THEN REALLY               
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTER THAT COLD FRONT MOVES TO              
OUR EAST. EXPECTING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY TO OCCUR                  
RATHER EARLY IN THE MORNING AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGHOUT             
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ALSO AFTER THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE RATHER                
COLD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR            
WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL GIVE OUR                  
NORTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ELSE ALSO                 
EXPECTING SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE DRY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING            
FOR ZONES INZ003>009...INZ012...INZ014...INZ016.                                
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING            
FOR ZONES MIZ077>081.                                                           
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING            
FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
249 AM MST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE 09Z SURFACE CHART PLACES HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A               
FRONT WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND            
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS FRONT ARE                  
REPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW                
PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO TO            
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR JUST OFF            
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.                                                  
AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY. TONIGHT THE UPPER               
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY            
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE               
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ENERGY                  
EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER            
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE BATTLEGROUND              
FOR COLD AIR VERSUS WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE                   
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TODAY. TONIGHT A LOW WILL MOVE INTO                   
EASTCENTRAL COLORADO AND THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE                   
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE                 
PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA             
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.            
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST IS EXTENT AND TIMING OF DENSE FOG               
THIS MORNING AND POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES              
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY WITH GUIDANCE STILL TOO WARM.                
THERE IS STILL A SNOW FIELD OF AROUND AN INCH OVER PARTS OF THE                 
NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE RUC/ETA 12 INDICATE THAT THE DENSE            
FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA AND VISIBILITIES                 
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT DENSE FOG                    
ADVISORY (DETAILS BELOW). FORCING FOR THE SYSTEM COMING IN WEDNESDAY            
IS BEST DESCRIBED BY FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.                      
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT A FACTOR AND UPSLOPE IS ONLY SURFACE                  
BASED. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND GFS MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT SEE               
ANY REASON TO EXTEND POPS/WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SYSTEM                
PULLS THROUGH QUICKLY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE. QPF AMOUNTS               
INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. LATEST POP              
GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON            
ANYTHING GREATER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SINCE THE LOW IS STILL                
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BLEND WELL WITH                    
SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ONE LAST CONSIDERATION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF              
NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS MOS                 
INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD MEET/EXCEED 30 MPH. FWC/MET                
GUIDANCE STAY BELOW THIS THRESHOLD BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                     
MONITORED WITH SUCCEEDING RUNS. 700MB WIND/850MB WINDS ARE IN PHASE             
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOT               
ALL THAT STRONG. HOWEVER WILL ADJUST GRIDS FOR WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS STILL TOO WARM EVEN THOUGH IT HAS COME DOWN IN              
RECENT RUNS. PREFER ETA12 SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UKMET SEEMS TOO             
COLD IN THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TODAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 THROUGH 18Z.            
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR DUNDY COUNTY THROUGH 18Z.              
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL                    
     COLORADO THROUGH 18Z.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
427 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                
CANADA AND NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVES ARE RACING                 
ALONG THIS FLOW AND ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR               
THIS MORNING. A LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS INDICATE A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHING FROM A            
HIGH CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE               
DAKOTAS. A LOW CENTER IS DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WITH A COLD FRONT              
DRAPED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER            
COLORADO THIS MORNING AND BECOMING MORE DEFINED. AREA RAOBS INDICATE            
AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB.                                                      
THE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.                                  
THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. THE LOW OVER            
CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING               
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS AND INTO               
THE SALT LAKE BASIN. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL                 
SWING INTO NORTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL                  
BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST            
STATES WILL BECOME FOR ORGANIZED OVER THE COLORADO. THE FLOW AHEAD              
OF THE LOWS TO THE WEST AND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL DRAW WARM AIR              
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS             
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO                 
BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE WARM AIR ADVECTION                  
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 30. 275K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING               
WEAK ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVEL OVER THE U.P. THIS MORNING. MEAN                   
SURFACE TO 900MB RH WILL BE 80 TO 85 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL U.P.                
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED. THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDS AND ONLY             
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.                                                         
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
THIS EVENING. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST             
AREA THIS EVENING. 275K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE                
DEFICIT WILL LOWER TO 20MB BY EARLY EVENING AND TO AROUND 10MB BY               
MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. THIS ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL ASCENT            
WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. ETA SOUNDING FORECAST INDICATES A                   
SATURATE CONDITION SURFACE TO 700MB. GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AROUND               
850MB TONIGHT. BOTH SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY              
ISOTHERMAL FROM SURFACE TO 700MB AND BE BETWEEN -3C AND -8C. ASCENT             
AT THE LOW LEVELS...SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. BY LATE                   
EVENING ALONG WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK               
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THE LOW OVER COLORADO WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED            
ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WEAK             
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.                          
THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY             
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE BEING EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE              
LOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE U.P. A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE                
INTO EASTERN IOWA...WHILE THE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN MOVES INTO                  
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. A WEAK              
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING               
WILL MIGRATE NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL                  
INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA.            
CONDENSATION PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL RH INDICATES ADEQUATE MOISTURE              
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING. QUESTION IS THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.             
ETA FORECAST SOUNDING IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS FAVORING MIXED                
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE ASK GFS FAVOR SNOW CHANGING TO               
RAIN ACROSS THE U.P. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE IN LINE WITH                      
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC THUS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AND FAVOR THE LITTLE            
WARMER GFS AND LOOK FOR THE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.                              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER KANSAS WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN                
MANITOBA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND MERGE               
WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND REACH EAST CENTRAL               
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL THE WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO            
THE EASTERN U.P. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM THE WEST                
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE                  
FROPA. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET               
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE U.P. ISENTROPIC               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SOME OF THIS WIND WILL DESCENT TO SURFACE               
BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE OF WIND. THUS LOOKING            
FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND PARTS OF EASTERN U.P.               
WITH MORE OF THE WINDS MIXING TO SURFACE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM               
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALES LOOK LIKELY AS WELL.                                      
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ONTARIO                 
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY. COLD AIR FROM NORTHERN             
CANADA WILL WRAP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE LOW.              
THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE A -30C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL             
PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY. LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW WILL KICK PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE AREAS OF              
THE U.P. PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. THE EXTENDED FORECAST              
LOOKS REASONABLE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
342 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDING WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPE              
ISSUES THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG LINE OF                  
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                
ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                
WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL PLAYERS WORKING              
TOGETHER FOR THIS NARROW, YET INTENSE, REGION OF PRECIPITATION.                 
SHORT WAVE, ALBEIT BECOMING MORE STRUNG OUT, WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS             
ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  TO OUR NORTH A DEPARTING 130KT 300MB JET WAS                 
AIDING IN THE LIFT PROCESS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OUR FIRST                
SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH             
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AND 2D-FGEN                  
FORCING WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.                     
HOWEVER, ANOTHER REGION OF THERMALLY INDUCED FGEN WAS WEAKENING TO              
OUR NORTH AS THERMAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 12Z.                
TAKING THE LATEST RUC, REGION OF FGEN AND OMEGA WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN DURING THE              
AFTERNOON AS WAVE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.  AS THE SURFACE, 1012MB LOW              
WAS NEAR KSTL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY WITH                 
1027MB HIGH JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY.                                          
TODAY...                                                                        
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR ADVISORY FOR THOSE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES AND            
EXPAND IT A TIER NORTH THIS MORNING AS THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE                
FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE POSITION OF OUR DEPARTING JET THROUGH THE            
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THIS              
SITUATION BUT DISAGREE WITH SUBTLE, YET SIGNIFICANT, TEMPERATURE                
PROFILES.  SOME ABOVE 0C TEMPS @ 925MB WERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO             
ADG-TTF VICINITY WITH THE LATEST TAMDAR DATA FROM DTW SHOWING SIGNS             
OF NEAR 0C BETWEEN 800-900MBS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK WE WILL               
SEE A LITTLE MORE OF A MIX TO HOLD DOWN OUR ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT              
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  WITH THIS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPSTREAM RADARS             
VERY BRIGHT THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 6" IF            
WE ARE ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYERS BELOW 0C (WE HAVE 4 G/KG IN THE                  
850-700MB LAYER WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS LAYER).                 
THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS WE WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM AND             
DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND PASS TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,            
AS WE LOSE SOME THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AOA 700MB), ENOUGH SHEAR IN             
THE PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS THE                  
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD EXPECT TO BE COOLER THAN THOSE                 
ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.  BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND                
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD, WOULD THINK TEMPS HOLDING THE LOWER-MIDDLE              
30S.                                                                            
TONIGHT...                                                                      
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER HEADLINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT.                
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF WARM THETA-E                     
ADVECTION TO OCCUR TOWARD 06Z AS POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS INTO            
THE PLAINS.  SHARP 850MB FRONT WILL SWING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY            
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT                   
APPROACHES.  WITH THAT, WE HAVE AN ISSUE WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS.               
SOUNDINGS AND 3-HOURLY MOS VALUES SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE AN                      
ACCUMULATING ICE EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  THE                 
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS               
USUALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOWER LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE               
GFS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.  HOWEVER, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH                
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP (WHICH WOULD BE ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE INITIALLY) TO RAISE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT              
IN LITTLE OR ANY PROBLEMS.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS WILL NEED             
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO.               
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
WE FINALLY (WE HOPE) LOSE OUR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS SURFACE WARM                
FRONT RACES NORTH.  VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION (850MB JET IN                
EXCESS OF 50KTS) WITH ELEVATED FACTORS SUGGESTING WE WILL NEED TO               
ADD IN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL.  THE INITIAL SURGE WILL OCCUR IN THE             
MORNING BUT WITH STILL DEEP THETA-E AIR OVERHEAD DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THRU THE DAY.  WE                  
SHOULD LOSE OUR SNOW COVER FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB             
THROUGH THE 40S.  WE MIGHT HAVE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG EVENT EARLY              
ON BUT AS WE LOSE THE SNOW COVER...VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY COME UP             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE HEADS INTO THE PLAINS  WITH NEAR PHASING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN LAKES WITH POLAR WAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DAKOTAS               
OVERNIGHT.  WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTING                 
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" AND ELEVATED STABILITY FACTORS SUGGESTIVE OF A            
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS LATE... WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                   
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...                                                                     
IF TIMING WORKS OUT... WE WILL TRULY EXPERIENCE THE 4-SEASONS IN A              
SPAN OF 12 HOURS.  LINE OF CONVECTION RACES EAST EARLY IN THE                   
MORNING WITH 50 DEGREE TEMPS AND BY AFTERNOON (AKA 00Z)... 850MB                
TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING -15C ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME            
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT IN              
THE ATMOSPHERE.  WITH SUCH A STRONG FROPA...ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS QUICKLY                 
CLIMB AND NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG DECENT.                                     
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE (AND QUITE COLD).                 
ANOTHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED...IN THE FORM A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.             
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS STILL                  
AROUND 15 KTS...WIND CHILL READINGS FALL TO DANGEROUSLY LOW -20F.               
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION GRR, IWX AND APX!                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-076-082-083...THROUGH 2 PM               
      TODAY.                                                                    
      SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ068>070...UNTIL NOON                                   
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1205 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS              
WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONGEST             
LIFT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE                 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z TUES. THE             
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP WILL FLUCTUATE             
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT... IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST              
LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH DTW AND DET BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW THROUGH TUES MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY            
TURNING OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND               
VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AFTER 09Z... WITH IFR                     
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 12Z. THE LIFT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ACROSS               
FNT AND MBS. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS... I DO NOT EXPECT IFR              
CONDITIONS IN FNT AND MBS UNTIL 16Z TUES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 928 PM.                                                    
THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A 130KT 300MB JET NEAR GEORGIAN BAY.             
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS IS AIDING SOME MID FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT                
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ALONG AND NORTH             
OF A FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AREA RADARS SHOW TWO MAIN BANDS OF             
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT. ONE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MSP TO                 
CENTRAL MICHIGAN... WITH ONLY FLURRIES BEING REPORTED. THE SECOND               
AREA OF RETURNS ARC FROM SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO CENTRAL            
IN. MAINLY RA AND FZRA IS OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. THE HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN                
INDICATED BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR                          
APX/GRB/DTX/DVN ALL WERE A LITTLE BIT DRYER BELOW 700MB AS A RESULT.            
MEANWHILE... THE 12Z AND 18Z RUC AND ETA VERIFIED THE THERMAL                   
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE REGION RATHER WELL.                                        
FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY... FEEL THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE                
SNOW TO START THE EVENT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS DUE TO                 
SLIGHTLY LOWER WET BULB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. PERSISTENT              
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES SHOULD ALSO              
TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH                       
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW HELPING TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE ADVISORY                
AREA. LIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AFTER 06Z AND            
PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH 18Z TUE. THE WARM LAYER WILL SLOWLY LIFT             
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY... CAUSING A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND              
FREEZING RAIN BY NOON... THEN ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON              
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE... WILL INCREASE TOTAL SNOWFALL TO             
2 TO 4 INCHES AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO 2 PM TUES. WITH SPECIFIC               
HUMIDITIES OF 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTH... LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES              
MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA TUES MORNING IF THE CHANGE OVER TO                
SLEET AND FZRA IS LATER.                                                        
AS FOR THE M 59 COUNTIES... THE SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKS MAINLY LIKE              
SNOW THROUGH NOON TUES. WILL HOWEVER CUT BACK ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO             
3 INCHES AS IT APPEARS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TONIGHT WILL            
BE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES. MODEST LIFT WILL OCCUR               
TUES MORNING... BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN IN THE                   
ADVISORY AREA.                                                                  
AND FOR I 69 COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTHWARD... THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR             
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HIGH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL                     
ACCUMULATION. I WILL THUS LOWER SNOWFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS                    
CONSIDERABLY. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM                 
SUPPORTS THIS. FOR TONIGHT/TUES MORNING... I WILL CARRY                         
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.                                                  
THE UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 330 UTC (1030 PM).             
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION GRR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 350 PM.                                                
STORM SYSTEM OVER SW MISSOURI TO TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY                  
TONIGHT...DELIVERING A BURST OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN             
GREAT LAKES. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290 K) LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING             
AROUND 9Z OVER SW LOWER...AND AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB OVER 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN                
BORDER...WITH AROUND 3 G/KG OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.                        
BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z ETA/GFS. ETA INDICATING TWO DISTANT                 
REGIONS OF LIFT (SEE 700 MB OMEGA)...ONE IN THE NORTH (KLDM-KMBS)               
AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN THE TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.                 
24 HOUR (18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY) QPF TOTALS OUT OF GFS RANGE FROM 5             
HUNDREDTHS NORTH TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH SOUTH. 12Z MESOETA IS A LOT             
MORE BULLISH WITH QPF FARTHER NORTH...INDICATING 0.15 INCHES TO 0.35            
INCHES NORTH OF I-94. EVEN SO...ETA BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE                    
SATURATION WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW -10 C ISOTHERM...THUS WOULD NOT              
EXPECT HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.                                              
ALL SOUNDINGS (GFS/ETA/NGM/UKMET) POINT TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF I-94               
TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH WARM AIR COMING IN THE 2000 TO 5000 FOOT LAYER            
TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND/OR CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                 
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS WINTRY                     
MIX...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR I-94 CORRIDOR AND                
POINTS SOUTH. EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS.             
HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY'S FARTHER NORTH...AS THE PRECIPITATION                 
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY ACCUMULATIONS OF            
1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ZONES NORTH OF I-94...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.             
LIFT EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING                  
BUILDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
SUPPORTS A MENTION OF DRIZZLE...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF               
I-96 AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SAME PROBLEMS REMAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT INTO THE AREA             
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND             
EVEN A CHANCE AT FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING IF TIMING OF THAT                
WAVE MATCHES UP WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES OF 30 OR SO. THE WINDOW               
FOR THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY           
CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR                
THAT MATTER.                                                                    
THE CONSENSUS ON THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACTUALLY              
DOES SUGGEST MOST OF THE QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES           
ARE BASICALLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.              
WILL BREAK OUT THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD FOR EVENING FREEZING RAIN MENTION           
NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA...AND CONTINUE WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT. LIKELY POPS             
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CARRY 60-70 POPS FOR              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...BY AND LARGE...LIKELY. ATTM...             
IT APPEARS THAT "EVENT" NUMBER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD LINGER INTO              
EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A RELATIVELY CALM DAYTIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED            
BY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. WILL              
NOT GET CUTE THOUGH...AS TIMING IN SUCH A SITUATION SEEMS FUTILE.               
BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME.             
HERE...SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF              
EXPANDING ARCTIC TROF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT SURFACE              
LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS ALONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES            
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMES A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN              
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS THE TAIL              
END OF THIS (OR MORE APPROPRIATELY...THE TRAILING AREA OF PRECIP W/             
UPPER VORT) TURNING TO SNOW ON THURSDAY.                                        
WILL MAINTAIN EARLY MORNING HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS            
DOWN INTO THE TEENS/20S BY EVENING. THIS DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DROP              
WILL COME ON VERY GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY ON INTO THE EVENING.                
WILL UP WINDS A BIT...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD               
SHAPE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN               
ARE FORECAST...WITH THAT STRONG OF A PRESSURE SURGE (+18MB RISES IN             
THE 6 HOUR PERIOD MIDDAY THURSDAY ON AVERAGE.                                   
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON DOWN FROM THERE AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN ON             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES HERE. JUST EDGED THE                  
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT MORE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A VERY            
SLOW MODERATION NEXT WEEK. EVEN SO...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN                      
PLACE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW            
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER            
CHANCES IN EVERY DAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-076-082-083...FROM MIDNIGHT              
TONIGHT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY.                                                   
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF/DEG/SC                                                                       
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA                                         
320 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS EXACT                
TIMING/MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  COLD                  
SHALLOW AIRMASS PUSHING THROUGH FA THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY                   
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN XNA...MKO LINE.   NORTH OF                   
BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE DAY WITH               
THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS/WEAK CAA.  LEANING TOWARD THE LATEST RUC                
DATA GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...PUSHING FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN BOTH                
ETA/GFS. THEREFORE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT NORTH OF EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.                                     
AS STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...               
FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH               
REGION IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 120KT UPPER JET.  BOTH ETA/GFS                     
SOLUTIONS LIFT WARM FRONT WELL NORTH...WITH ENTIRE FA IN WARM SECTOR            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER DIFFICULT             
ATTM TO SAY HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT DURING THE DAY.               
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SQUALL LINE SWEEPS EAST THROUGH                  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL               
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1000-1200 J/KG                     
RANGE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LAYER LAPSE            
RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING               
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR...LIMITING              
THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.  BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS              
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                                      
EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FRI/SUN WITH              
ARCTIC AIRMASS.  FOR NOW JUST BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES DURING              
THIS TIME FRAME.  HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY             
WITH WARMING TREND EXPECTED. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED             
WITH DRY FORECAST DAYS 3-7.                                                     
PRELIM NUMBERS:                                                                 
TUL    41   38   64   30 /  20   20   60   20                                   
FSM    61   52   68   36 /  20   20   70   60                                   
MLC    57   50   68   34 /  20   20   60   30                                   
BVO    38   33   61   27 /  20   20   60   30                                   
FYV    54   48   65   32 /  20   20   70   60                                   
BYV    56   49   64   32 /  20   20   70   60                                   
MKO    54   48   66   33 /  20   20   60   30                                   
MIO    41   40   63   29 /  20   20   70   60                                   
F10    51   45   65   31 /  20   20   60   20                                   
HHW    69   57   67   40 /  20   20   60   50                                   
FORECAST ID= 12                                                                 
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
400 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COLD FRONT WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR NOW SLICING THROUGH THE NERN FA             
HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH CHILDRESS IN THE LAST HALF HOUR.                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESONET OBS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT STILL HAS             
A DECENT PUSH TO IT...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS AREAS EAST OF              
THE CAPROCK...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIR MASS.              
ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE RUC HAVE VERY POOR HANDLING OF THIS                   
FEATURE AND HAVE THUS DISCOUNTED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LOW               
LEVEL PROGGED MODEL FEATURES. AVE OPTED TO FOLLOW RUC SFC SOLUTION              
FAIRLY CLOSELY...BRINGING FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY           
LATE MORNING. ON THE CAPROCK SWLY SFC FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BUT HIGH             
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS FROM MAXIMIZING THEIR                   
POTENTIAL. EXPECT 10-20 OR 15-25 MPH WORDING TO DROP OUT OF THE                 
GRIDS. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BE            
ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY TODAY. GIVEN STRATUS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...            
EXPECT THAT MIXING WILL BE DIFFICULT TODAY. BETTER YET SHOULD SEE               
WINDS SLOWLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS            
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE             
GRIDS FOR THE ABOVE REASONING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR THE EASTERN            
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO MOVEMENT NEUTRAL WITH THE            
FRONT AS AM UNSURE WHETHER HEIGHT FALLS AND VEERING WINDS ABOVE THE             
COLD AIR WILL OUTWEIGH DIURNAL TENDENCY TO SEE THE DENSITY CURRENT              
BEGIN PROPAGATING SWD AGAIN. BEST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWARD MOVEMENT              
OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS STRONG WEST WINDS KICK IN.                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
CHALLENGING FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME             
FRAME. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE TILTED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS             
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECT NORTH OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY            
WEDNESDAY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS NOW IN BETTER             
AGREEMENT FOR STRONG WINDS BEGINNING AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AND                    
CONTINUING INTO THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. WILL ADD A WIND ADVISORY TO              
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL 6 COUNTIES FOR THE FOLLOWING REASON.            
700MB HEIGHT CHANGE FROM AMA TO MAF PROGGED TO BE IN THE 70 TO 80M              
RANGE WITH CORRESPONDING MAXIMUM VORTICITY LOBE MOVING ACROSS THE               
CAPROCK REGIONS THROUGH 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FACTORED WITH A GOOD                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE STRONG W               
TO WSW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. DO BELIEVE ADVISORY WINDS OF             
30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED A GOOD BET...AT LEAST OVER THE ABOVE                     
MENTIONED REGIONS. GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE ALSO POSSIBLE.               
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THE ONGOING FORECAST QUITE TRICKY TO               
SAY THE LEAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OFF PERTAINING TO COLD AIR               
PROGRESSION...INTENSITY AND DEPTH. DO BELIEVE THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE              
FLOW AND MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR COLD AIR NORTH AND                    
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES DO                   
REMAIN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH COLD AIR CAN PENETRATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF             
IT DOES PUSH FURTHER SOUTH...AS SEEN A WEEK AGO...WINDS MAY NOT GET             
AS HIGH...ESPECIALLY POINTS OFF THE CAPROCK.                                    
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BYPASSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...CAA              
WILL QUICKLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL STILL KEEP COLD FRONT              
AND EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL                
FORCING IN PLACE. DID LIMIT POPS WEDNESDAY DUE TO MAXIMUM DOWNSLOPE             
COMPONENT OVER ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THE EXTREME             
NORTHEAST HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...CHANGING TO              
SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
THURSDAY TEMP FORECAST MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS SHALLOW COLD                 
AIR-MASSES NOT DEPICTED WELL IN MODELS DUE TO LIMITED RESOLUTION                
PARAMETERS. TEMPS FORECASTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS.              
DO EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...HELPING TO KEEP LOW                 
LEVEL CAA ONGOING.                                                              
COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH               
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. KEPT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
TEMPERATURE MODERATION POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER              
LEVEL STORM LURKING OUT WEST FOR THE EXTENDED LONG RANGE PERIOD.                
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS...NO CHANGES TO              
THE LONG TERM.                                                                  
THANKS TO AMA AND MAF FOR COORDINATION.                                         
WIDELSKI                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       65  39  50  18 /   0  20  20  20                                   
TULIA        65  39  52  21 /   0  20  20  20                                   
PLAINVIEW    65  43  55  22 /   0  20  20  20                                   
LEVELLAND    69  45  59  23 /   0  20  10  10                                   
LUBBOCK      67  45  59  23 /   0  20  10  10                                   
BROWNFIELD   70  45  62  25 /   0  20  10  10                                   
CHILDRESS    44  41  55  24 /   0  20  20  20                                   
SPUR         62  47  60  27 /   0  20  20  10                                   
ASPERMONT    65  49  62  30 /   0  20  20  10                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
405 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORNING SFC OBS SHOWING               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN FROM VCT TO ALI AND ALONG THE COAST               
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WESTWARD TO HBV AND COT.  SFC WINDS ARE               
DECOUPLING IN MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CRP VAD WIND PROFILE AND                 
LATEST RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT WINDS IN THE 1-3KFT LAYER ARE            
AROUND 30KTS.  THIS IS KEEPING BL TURBULENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT                   
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THE MOMENT.  WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY               
OVER THE EAST GOING FOR THE TIME BEING UNLESS VISBYS IMPROVE                    
SIGNIFICANTLY.                                                                  
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES             
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  H85 WINDS WILL             
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S OUT WEST            
UNDER P/C SKIES...LOWER 80S EAST.  MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OUT               
OVER THE WATER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  LLJ REALLY BEGINS TO CRANK                
LATER TONIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 50KTS AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SW             
KANSAS.  BL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED AND SFC WINDS HIGH ENOUGH              
TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG.  WILL SEE                        
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCA             
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.  SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPS MAY KEEP               
WINDS OVER THE BAYS DOWN IN SCEC RANGE.  TEMPS AGAIN ON WED WILL BE             
VERY WARM WITH LOW/MID 80S EAST...MID/UPPER 80S WEST.  WILL ALSO                
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST FOR WED AFTN AS MID-LEVEL            
CAPPING BEGINS TO ERODE WITH APPROACHING S/W AND COLD FRONT.                    
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRE FRONTAL                 
CONVECTION IF ANY TYPE OF LOCAL FORCING CAN BE ACHIEVED.                        
RECORDS OF NOTE (TODAY AND TOMORROW)                                            
LOCATION                RECORD HIGH     YEAR                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI              84          1980                                    
VICTORIA                    82          1923                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI              82          1972                                    
VICTORIA                    84          1923                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UKMET/ECMWF/CAN               
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH SWINGING THE SHORT WAVE            
TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z THURSDAY...LOCATED OVER WEST                
TEXAS. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL                  
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY 12Z THURSDAY.             
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL GIVE              
WAY TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY.                                           
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SET TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
AXIS MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN             
THE ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL                
SATURDAY. SOURCE REGION OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS OVER ALASKA AT                
THIS TIME WITH READINGS OF -40 TO -50 F. DENSE COLD AIR SHOULD NOT              
HAVE A PROBLEM MOVING SOUTH AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL             
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TEMPS AROUND 10                
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO ENVELOP              
SOUTH TEXAS AND STAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY               
MONDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.                
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI  83 65 84 56 67 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
VICTORIA        80 63 81 53 64 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
LAREDO          87 63 88 52 64 / 05 05 05 10 00                                 
ALICE           85 63 86 54 65 / 05 10 10 20 00                                 
ROCKPORT        76 67 79 56 66 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
COTULLA         85 61 87 49 64 / 05 05 05 10 00                                 
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TXZ231>234-241>247 UNTIL 9 AM.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91/DUNN...SHORT-TERM                                                            
89/TMT...LONG-TERM                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
333 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST                   
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT                  
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO              
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT               
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.           
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT             
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF             
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL            
BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  60  72  40 /  10  10  50  30                          
WACO, TX              75  62  73  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
PARIS, TX             72  59  72  41 /  10  10  50  50                          
DENTON, TX            59  54  71  38 /  10  10  50  30                          
MCKINNEY, TX          70  59  73  40 /  10  10  50  40                          
DALLAS, TX            73  60  73  41 /  10  10  50  30                          
TERRELL, TX           74  61  73  42 /  10  10  50  30                          
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  74  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  62  74  45 /  10  10  30  30                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
408 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RESOLVING PRECIPITATION                      
CHANCES AND TYPE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN ARCTIC OUTBREAK.                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HELD OFF PCPN IN THE                 
CWA OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE CORNER. RRQ OF EXITING 100-                  
120KT UPR JET STREAK ENHANCED LIFT OVER RGN AND THO MAINLY                      
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN IN SRN WI...RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR             
LOOPS INDICATED A SHRT WAVE CROSSING CNTRL IL THAT ADDED A DYNAMIC              
COMPONENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH.                                     
CONTINUED WEAK WAA TODAY WILL KEEP SCT FLURRIES AND PATCHY -ZL IN               
FCST...THO MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT                       
DIMINISHES FOR A TIME.                                                          
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM FOR               
WED/WED NGT. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE                      
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINE AND ALLOW               
NEXT SHIFT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE.                     
ALL MODELS AGREE WITH WED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER CWA WED EVE WITH                 
ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR BEHIND THURSDAY. QPF ACROSS CWA IN THE 3/4 IN              
TO 1 INCH RANGE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF WARMTH AHEAD OF LOW...           
BUT ENOUGH LIQUID PCPN TO BE CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL AREAL                     
FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AS STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE CLOGGED WITH             
SNOW AND FROZEN GROUND WILL NOT SOAK UP ANY RAIN. ALSO...IF SURFACE             
TEMPS DO WARM AHEAD OF LOW...POTENTIAL BREAK UP OF ICE ON AREA                  
RIVERS COULD LEAD TO DAMMING. HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR WED                   
AFTN/NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA.                                                      
BECOMES VERY WINDY TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS                
OVERTAKING CWA. GFS H8 TEMPS STILL GETTING DOWN TO -28C ON FRIDAY...            
WITH ETA ONLY A BIT WARMER AT -22C. THE BITTER COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS           
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT              
FOR ALL ZONES.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
520 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES TO CLEAR UP SNFL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN              
ZONES.  PER UPSTREAM 88DS IN IA, THE POTPOURRI OF WEATHER SHOULD                
TAPER DOWN AROUND 10 AM LEAVING LIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE            
REST OF THE DAY. LATEST RUC TEMP VALUES CONTINUE THE TREND FOR A                
...SLOW...UPWARD TREND TO TODAY'S SFC TEMPS...HANGING ON TO NEAR 32F            
TEMPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR               
TONIGHT AS FZDZ COULD BE AN ISSUE NORTH OF I-88. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE            
OUT SOON.                                                                       
...PREV DISC BELOW...                                                           
WILL BE EXTENDING THE END TIME FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO                      
END AT 18 UTC. ONLY NWP CLOSEST TO CURRENT SFC/88D TRENDS IS                    
THE RUC20 AS THE ETA IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC THRU H925. AN INVERTED              
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA, CLEARLY RESOLVED BY THE NRN                          
IL/IN MESONET STATIONS, HAS PLAYED HAVOC WITH THE SFC TEMPS AND                 
AS A RESULT PRECIP TYPES/DURATION. THE TROUGH HAS SLIPPED                       
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PAST 8 HRS INHIBITING SFC TEMP WARM                     
UP. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND APPARENTLY ALONG THE H85 STRENGTHENING              
BAROLCINIC AND CONFLUENCE ZONE, A PERSISTENT MESOBAND OF SN                     
CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I88. THUS FAR UNDER               
THAT BAND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURNEE, 4                 
AT LAKE VILLA AND 3.5 INCHES 7-8 MILES WNW OF RFD. IT APPEARS THE               
THAT BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETWEEN RFD TO UGN FOR ANOTHER FEW                 
HRS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED 6/7" AMOUNTS BASED                 
ON THE AFOREMENTION REPORTS. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WARNING GIVEN                
THE ISOLATED NATURE RESIDING WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER                          
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP IS                    
NOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNRISE...WITH SCATTERED PRECIP                  
CONTINUING THRU THE DAY WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FG/BR. TEMPS SHOULD                
SLOWLY WARM BUT HAVE HELD MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NW                       
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THAT AREA WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO                  
WARM ABOUT 32F. FROM THERE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA FROM TONIGHT                 
THRU THR MORNING AS THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS               
SFC FEATURES VS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-MIDLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.                
TONIGHT NW IN STANDS TO RECEIVE THE LARGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AS                   
THE NEXT S/WV PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF                     
FG FOR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT WILL                
SEE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LAST IN THE RECENT SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS.               
MODEL QPFS PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL                     
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL HOIST AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE                  
CWA VALID 00 UTC THR TO 12 UTC THR AS RUNOFF ATOP THE RESIDUAL                  
SNOW PACK, BLOCKED DRAINS/CULVERTS, AND/OR THE CURRENT HIGH SOIL                
MOISTURE COULD CAUSE LOW SPOTS TO FILL WITH WATER.                              
SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SN LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG                   
COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT. -SHSN LINGER               
INTO THRU MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT THE                  
COLD EXTEND PERIODS IN TACT THIS GO AROUND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS WINTRY MIX OF PCPN CONTS. WILL             
EXPECT CIGS AT IFR AND OCNL LIFR WITH VSBY AT MVFR IN PCPN AND FOG.             
VSBY LOWERING AS DWPTS RISE AOA 32 TO MELT SNOW LATE THIS AFTN.                 
OVERNIGHT SHUD BE PRETTY STABLE AT IFR OR LIFR. WINDS SHUD CONT FROM            
THE EAST 5 TO 10 MPH THRU 06Z TNGT...VEERING MORE TO SE TOWARD                  
TUESDAY MRNG.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...WINTER WX ADVSRY UNTIL NOON TUES ROUGHLY N STREATOR-KVPZ                  
LINE. FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL CWA.                                      
.IN...WINTER WX ADVSRY UNTIL  NOON TUES FOR  LAKE/PORTER                        
COUNTIES.                                                                       
.LK MI...                                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
640 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW CHANGES TO GOING TERMINAL FORECAST. KSBN NOW ALL RAIN AND                   
STOPPED FZRA AS SOUNDING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. PRIMARILY              
LIFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WITH I300               
SURFACE LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IN MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME DEEPER               
MIXING...BROUGHT CIGS UP A BIT...BUT STILL IFR.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INITIAL WAVE/I295 CROSS ISALLOBARIC FLOW GENERATING ADVISORY LEVEL              
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA AS FAIRLY FAST MOVING. IN                   
MICHIGAN CURRENTLY BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH               
900-700 MB INITIAL DRY LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR             
SNOW WITH ONE REPORT OF NEAR 2 INCHES ALREADY NEAR STATE LINE. HAVE             
CHANGED HEADLINE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MICHIGAN                        
COUNTIES...FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY              
WITH A MENTION OF BRIEF PL/SN MIX. BUT PRIMARILY ZR AS PTYPE. IN                
WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS AM...IN MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE COLUMN REVERT TO            
FZRA PROFILE PER RUC/GFS SOUNDINGS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT                     
LIFT/COOLING. KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO A BIT BELOW COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE WITH SNOW/ICE COVER AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL BAROCLINIC ZONE              
SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN ETA. PREFERENCE LIES MORE TOWARD                  
CONSISTENT GFS WITH THIS RESPECT. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER STRONGER                
SHOT OF I300 LIFT WITH GOOD MOISTURE TAP OF 5-6.5 G/KG ACROSS LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT CATEGORICAL BUT NO              
CHANCE TO BEAT MAV WITH 97-100 POPS. FOCUS SHIFTS LATER TONIGHT WITH            
QPF/WARMING TEMPS TO START OF RUNOFF/FLOOD ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD               
SWE OF 1-2 INCHES PLUS ACROSS CWA AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD BASIN               
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS                
HAVE ISSUES FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE               
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
PATTERN...THE NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL FLIP              
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MID WINTER POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BY THE END OF               
THIS WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PNA INDEX FORECAST SHOWING HIGH                    
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. A STRONG PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW              
NOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST             
US AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A                
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CUTTING                  
THROUGH THE LAKES WED NGT AND THURS. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO            
PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TAKE UP ITS TYPICAL MID WINTER                     
RESIDENCE NEAR HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN             
FORECAST OF THE NAO AND AO INDICES INDICATING A GENERAL TREND                   
TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO BY LATE JANUARY SUGGESTING             
THAT THE COLDER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO LOCK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE CONUS.                                                                      
DEEP SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON WED.                
925MB TEMPS SOAR TO +12C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S EVEN WITH                
PURELY MOIST ADIABATIC MIXING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE MOIST AND AMPLE              
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOW 50S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH. INGREDIENTS              
COMING TOGETHER FOR A HEALTHY PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT. PLUME OF                
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CWA WITH PWATS OF OVER 1                 
INCH. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ADVANCING MID               
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH                
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE A BAND OF DEEP              
LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO              
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND              
50.                                                                             
STRONG FROPA THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/CANADIAN GEM/ETA IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WITH THE FRONT BISECTING THE             
CWA AT 12Z THURS. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THIS            
MAKES THE MAX TEMP FORECAST INTERESTING FOR THURSDAY AS JUST A FEW              
HOURS IN TIMING WILL MAKE A 20+F DIFFERENCE. WILL START TEMPS OFF IN            
THE UPPER 40S EAST TO MID/UPPER 30S WEST WITH FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY             
IN VERY STRONG CAA REGIME. BEST FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST OF THE              
CWA DURING THE MORNING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EAST                
THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO CHANCE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY             
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT.                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL                   
DOMINATE THE CWA. NO WEATHER TO WORRY ABOUT SYNOPTICALLY...SO OUR               
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS IN THE                
-20C TO -24C RANGE POURING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURS NGT THROUGH               
SAT NGT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WESTERLY FLOW WITH                      
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY LIMITED AMBIENT MOISTURE.             
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SHORT FETCH AND SPARSE                  
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORTWAVES              
AND SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT CAN                 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP AT TIMES IN THIS KIND OF            
PATTERN. THESE SHORTWAVES CANNOT BE TIMED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FOR              
NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN COUNTIES FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW                  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUB ZERO LOW TEMPS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. BEST CHANCE             
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES                              
INZ003>009...INZ012...INZ014...INZ016.                                          
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES MIZ077>081.                 
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES                              
OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                                                        
FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MURPHY                                                    
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
659 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
CORRECTED HEADING BELOW FOR AVIATION                                            
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR TO EVEN VFR CEILINGS FNT/MBS                         
TODAY...RATHER WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH                    
TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DYNAMICS THIS                     
MORNING...LARGELY AFFECTING SOUTHERN SITES...DTW/DET...INCLUDING                
FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA LIFT...WHERE IFR VISIBILITY SNOW IS LARGELY             
CONFINED. IN THE SOUTH...EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH             
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE MIXING WITH SLEET THEN OVER TO ALL            
RAIN BY DARK TONIGHT. IN FNT/MBS...EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES TO                   
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING            
OVER TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST TUESDAY                                    
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDING WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPE              
ISSUES THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG LINE OF                  
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                
ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                
WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL PLAYERS WORKING              
TOGETHER FOR THIS NARROW, YET INTENSE, REGION OF PRECIPITATION.                 
SHORT WAVE, ALBEIT BECOMING MORE STRUNG OUT, WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS             
ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  TO OUR NORTH A DEPARTING 130KT 300MB JET WAS                 
AIDING IN THE LIFT PROCESS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OUR FIRST                
SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH             
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AND 2D-FGEN                  
FORCING WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.                     
HOWEVER, ANOTHER REGION OF THERMALLY INDUCED FGEN WAS WEAKENING TO              
OUR NORTH AS THERMAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 12Z.                
TAKING THE LATEST RUC, REGION OF FGEN AND OMEGA WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN DURING THE              
AFTERNOON AS WAVE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.  AS THE SURFACE, 1012MB LOW              
WAS NEAR KSTL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY WITH                 
1027MB HIGH JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY.                                          
TODAY...                                                                        
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR ADVISORY FOR THOSE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES AND            
EXPAND IT A TIER NORTH THIS MORNING AS THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE                
FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE POSITION OF OUR DEPARTING JET THROUGH THE            
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THIS              
SITUATION BUT DISAGREE WITH SUBTLE, YET SIGNIFICANT, TEMPERATURE                
PROFILES.  SOME ABOVE 0C TEMPS @ 925MB WERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO             
ADG-TTF VICINITY WITH THE LATEST TAMDAR DATA FROM DTW SHOWING SIGNS             
OF NEAR 0C BETWEEN 800-900MBS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK WE WILL               
SEE A LITTLE MORE OF A MIX TO HOLD DOWN OUR ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT              
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  WITH THIS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPSTREAM RADARS             
VERY BRIGHT THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 6" IF            
WE ARE ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYERS BELOW 0C (WE HAVE 4 G/KG IN THE                  
850-700MB LAYER WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS LAYER).                 
THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS WE WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM AND             
DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND PASS TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,            
AS WE LOSE SOME THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AOA 700MB), ENOUGH SHEAR IN             
THE PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS THE                  
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD EXPECT TO BE COOLER THAN THOSE                 
ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.  BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND                
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD, WOULD THINK TEMPS HOLDING THE LOWER-MIDDLE              
30S.                                                                            
TONIGHT...                                                                      
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER HEADLINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT.                
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF WARM THETA-E                     
ADVECTION TO OCCUR TOWARD 06Z AS POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS INTO            
THE PLAINS.  SHARP 850MB FRONT WILL SWING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY            
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT                   
APPROACHES.  WITH THAT, WE HAVE AN ISSUE WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS.               
SOUNDINGS AND 3-HOURLY MOS VALUES SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE AN                      
ACCUMULATING ICE EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  THE                 
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS               
USUALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOWER LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE               
GFS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.  HOWEVER, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH                
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP (WHICH WOULD BE ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE INITIALLY) TO RAISE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT              
IN LITTLE OR ANY PROBLEMS.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS WILL NEED             
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO.               
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
WE FINALLY (WE HOPE) LOSE OUR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS SURFACE WARM                
FRONT RACES NORTH.  VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION (850MB JET IN                
EXCESS OF 50KTS) WITH ELEVATED FACTORS SUGGESTING WE WILL NEED TO               
ADD IN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL.  THE INITIAL SURGE WILL OCCUR IN THE             
MORNING BUT WITH STILL DEEP THETA-E AIR OVERHEAD DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THRU THE DAY.  WE                  
SHOULD LOSE OUR SNOW COVER FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB             
THROUGH THE 40S.  WE MIGHT HAVE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG EVENT EARLY              
ON BUT AS WE LOSE THE SNOW COVER...VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY COME UP             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE HEADS INTO THE PLAINS  WITH NEAR PHASING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN LAKES WITH POLAR WAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DAKOTAS               
OVERNIGHT.  WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTING                 
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" AND ELEVATED STABILITY FACTORS SUGGESTIVE OF A            
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS LATE... WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                   
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...                                                                     
IF TIMING WORKS OUT... WE WILL TRULY EXPERIENCE THE 4-SEASONS IN A              
SPAN OF 12 HOURS.  LINE OF CONVECTION RACES EAST EARLY IN THE                   
MORNING WITH 50 DEGREE TEMPS AND BY AFTERNOON (AKA 00Z)... 850MB                
TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING -15C ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME            
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT IN              
THE ATMOSPHERE.  WITH SUCH A STRONG FROPA...ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS QUICKLY                 
CLIMB AND NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG DECENT.                                     
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE (AND QUITE COLD).                 
ANOTHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED...IN THE FORM A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.             
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS STILL                  
AROUND 15 KTS...WIND CHILL READINGS FALL TO DANGEROUSLY LOW -20F.               
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION GRR, IWX AND APX!                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-076-082-083...THROUGH 2 PM               
      TODAY.                                                                    
      SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ068>070...UNTIL NOON                                   
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BGM                                                                         
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
659 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR TO EVEN VFR CEILINGS FNT/MBS                         
TODAY...RATHER WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH                    
TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DYNAMICS THIS                     
MORNING...LARGELY AFFECTING SOUTHERN SITES...DTW/DET...INCLUDING                
FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA LIFT...WHERE IFR VISIBILITY SNOW IS LARGELY             
CONFINED. IN THE SOUTH...EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH             
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE MIXING WITH SLEET THEN OVER TO ALL            
RAIN BY DARK TONIGHT. IN FNT/MBS...EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES TO                   
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING            
OVER TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST TUESDAY                                    
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDING WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPE              
ISSUES THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG LINE OF                  
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                
ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                
WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL PLAYERS WORKING              
TOGETHER FOR THIS NARROW, YET INTENSE, REGION OF PRECIPITATION.                 
SHORT WAVE, ALBEIT BECOMING MORE STRUNG OUT, WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS             
ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  TO OUR NORTH A DEPARTING 130KT 300MB JET WAS                 
AIDING IN THE LIFT PROCESS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OUR FIRST                
SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH             
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AND 2D-FGEN                  
FORCING WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.                     
HOWEVER, ANOTHER REGION OF THERMALLY INDUCED FGEN WAS WEAKENING TO              
OUR NORTH AS THERMAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 12Z.                
TAKING THE LATEST RUC, REGION OF FGEN AND OMEGA WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN DURING THE              
AFTERNOON AS WAVE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.  AS THE SURFACE, 1012MB LOW              
WAS NEAR KSTL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY WITH                 
1027MB HIGH JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY.                                          
TODAY...                                                                        
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR ADVISORY FOR THOSE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES AND            
EXPAND IT A TIER NORTH THIS MORNING AS THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE                
FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE POSITION OF OUR DEPARTING JET THROUGH THE            
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THIS              
SITUATION BUT DISAGREE WITH SUBTLE, YET SIGNIFICANT, TEMPERATURE                
PROFILES.  SOME ABOVE 0C TEMPS @ 925MB WERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO             
ADG-TTF VICINITY WITH THE LATEST TAMDAR DATA FROM DTW SHOWING SIGNS             
OF NEAR 0C BETWEEN 800-900MBS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK WE WILL               
SEE A LITTLE MORE OF A MIX TO HOLD DOWN OUR ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT              
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  WITH THIS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPSTREAM RADARS             
VERY BRIGHT THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 6" IF            
WE ARE ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYERS BELOW 0C (WE HAVE 4 G/KG IN THE                  
850-700MB LAYER WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS LAYER).                 
THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS WE WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM AND             
DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND PASS TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,            
AS WE LOSE SOME THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AOA 700MB), ENOUGH SHEAR IN             
THE PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS THE                  
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD EXPECT TO BE COOLER THAN THOSE                 
ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.  BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND                
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD, WOULD THINK TEMPS HOLDING THE LOWER-MIDDLE              
30S.                                                                            
TONIGHT...                                                                      
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER HEADLINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT.                
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF WARM THETA-E                     
ADVECTION TO OCCUR TOWARD 06Z AS POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS INTO            
THE PLAINS.  SHARP 850MB FRONT WILL SWING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY            
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT                   
APPROACHES.  WITH THAT, WE HAVE AN ISSUE WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS.               
SOUNDINGS AND 3-HOURLY MOS VALUES SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE AN                      
ACCUMULATING ICE EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  THE                 
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS               
USUALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOWER LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE               
GFS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.  HOWEVER, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH                
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP (WHICH WOULD BE ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE INITIALLY) TO RAISE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT              
IN LITTLE OR ANY PROBLEMS.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS WILL NEED             
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO.               
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
WE FINALLY (WE HOPE) LOSE OUR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS SURFACE WARM                
FRONT RACES NORTH.  VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION (850MB JET IN                
EXCESS OF 50KTS) WITH ELEVATED FACTORS SUGGESTING WE WILL NEED TO               
ADD IN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL.  THE INITIAL SURGE WILL OCCUR IN THE             
MORNING BUT WITH STILL DEEP THETA-E AIR OVERHEAD DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THRU THE DAY.  WE                  
SHOULD LOSE OUR SNOW COVER FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB             
THROUGH THE 40S.  WE MIGHT HAVE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG EVENT EARLY              
ON BUT AS WE LOSE THE SNOW COVER...VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY COME UP             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE HEADS INTO THE PLAINS  WITH NEAR PHASING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN LAKES WITH POLAR WAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DAKOTAS               
OVERNIGHT.  WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTING                 
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" AND ELEVATED STABILITY FACTORS SUGGESTIVE OF A            
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS LATE... WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                   
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...                                                                     
IF TIMING WORKS OUT... WE WILL TRULY EXPERIENCE THE 4-SEASONS IN A              
SPAN OF 12 HOURS.  LINE OF CONVECTION RACES EAST EARLY IN THE                   
MORNING WITH 50 DEGREE TEMPS AND BY AFTERNOON (AKA 00Z)... 850MB                
TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING -15C ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME            
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT IN              
THE ATMOSPHERE.  WITH SUCH A STRONG FROPA...ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS QUICKLY                 
CLIMB AND NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG DECENT.                                     
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE (AND QUITE COLD).                 
ANOTHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED...IN THE FORM A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.             
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS STILL                  
AROUND 15 KTS...WIND CHILL READINGS FALL TO DANGEROUSLY LOW -20F.               
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION GRR, IWX AND APX!                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-076-082-083...THROUGH 2 PM               
      TODAY.                                                                    
      SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ068>070...UNTIL NOON                                   
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BGM                                                                         
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
900 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LET THE              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY.            
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.            
81                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORNING SFC OBS SHOWING               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN FROM VCT TO ALI AND ALONG THE COAST               
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WESTWARD TO HBV AND COT.  SFC WINDS ARE               
DECOUPLING IN MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CRP VAD WIND PROFILE AND                 
LATEST RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT WINDS IN THE 1-3KFT LAYER ARE            
AROUND 30KTS.  THIS IS KEEPING BL TURBULENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT                   
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THE MOMENT.  WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY               
OVER THE EAST GOING FOR THE TIME BEING UNLESS VISBYS IMPROVE                    
SIGNIFICANTLY.                                                                  
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES             
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  H85 WINDS WILL             
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S OUT WEST            
UNDER P/C SKIES...LOWER 80S EAST.  MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OUT               
OVER THE WATER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  LLJ REALLY BEGINS TO CRANK                
LATER TONIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 50KTS AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SW             
KANSAS.  BL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED AND SFC WINDS HIGH ENOUGH              
TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG.  WILL SEE                        
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCA             
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.  SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPS MAY KEEP               
WINDS OVER THE BAYS DOWN IN SCEC RANGE.  TEMPS AGAIN ON WED WILL BE             
VERY WARM WITH LOW/MID 80S EAST...MID/UPPER 80S WEST.  WILL ALSO                
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST FOR WED AFTN AS MID-LEVEL            
CAPPING BEGINS TO ERODE WITH APPROACHING S/W AND COLD FRONT.                    
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRE FRONTAL                 
CONVECTION IF ANY TYPE OF LOCAL FORCING CAN BE ACHIEVED.                        
RECORDS OF NOTE (TODAY AND TOMORROW)                                            
LOCATION                RECORD HIGH     YEAR                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI              84          1980                                    
VICTORIA                    82          1923                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI              82          1972                                    
VICTORIA                    84          1923                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UKMET/ECMWF/CAN               
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH SWINGING THE SHORT WAVE            
TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z THURSDAY...LOCATED OVER WEST                
TEXAS. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL                  
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY 12Z THURSDAY.             
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL GIVE              
WAY TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY.                                           
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SET TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
AXIS MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN             
THE ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL                
SATURDAY. SOURCE REGION OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS OVER ALASKA AT                
THIS TIME WITH READINGS OF -40 TO -50 F. DENSE COLD AIR SHOULD NOT              
HAVE A PROBLEM MOVING SOUTH AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL             
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TEMPS AROUND 10                
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO ENVELOP              
SOUTH TEXAS AND STAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY               
MONDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.                
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI  83 65 84 56 67 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
VICTORIA        80 63 81 53 64 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
LAREDO          87 63 88 52 64 / 05 05 05 10 00                                 
ALICE           85 63 86 54 65 / 05 10 10 20 00                                 
ROCKPORT        76 67 79 56 66 / 05 10 20 30 00                                 
COTULLA         85 61 87 49 64 / 05 05 05 10 00                                 
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TXZ231>234-241>247 UNTIL 9 AM.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91/DUNN...SHORT-TERM                                                            
89/TMT...LONG-TERM                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
538 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW PARAMETERS TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND              
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.             42                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
535 AM CST                                                                      
40-45KTS AT 2000FT REQUIRING LLWS MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING.                   
FRONT IN SW OKLAHOMA HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH VERNON. FORWARD PROGRESS            
SHOULD BE STUNTED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THINNING POLAR AIR MASS.               
PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO PULL WINDS WEST OF SOUTH. ST/SC                
ALREADY SEEN EVACUATING ON 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND FURTHER ERODING LIKELY            
AFTER BRIEF RADIATIONAL STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT FEW/SCT MORE              
THAN BKN/OVC. ST/SC TO RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT IFR UNLIKELY WITH STRONG            
LLJ AND BL WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED. FRONT SHOULD RETREAT AND                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. 25                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
333 AM CST                                                                      
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST                   
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT                  
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO              
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT               
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.           
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT             
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF             
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL            
BELOW GUIDANCE. 42                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  60  72  40 /  10  10  50  30                          
WACO, TX              75  62  73  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
PARIS, TX             72  59  72  41 /  10  10  50  50                          
DENTON, TX            59  54  71  38 /  10  10  50  30                          
MCKINNEY, TX          70  59  73  40 /  10  10  50  40                          
DALLAS, TX            73  60  73  41 /  10  10  50  30                          
TERRELL, TX           74  61  73  42 /  10  10  50  30                          
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  74  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  62  74  45 /  10  10  30  30                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
535 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
535 AM CST                                                                      
40-45KTS AT 2000FT REQUIRING LLWS MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING.                   
FRONT IN SW OKLAHOMA HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH VERNON. FORWARD PROGRESS            
SHOULD BE STUNTED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THINNING POLAR AIR MASS.               
PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO PULL WINDS WEST OF SOUTH. ST/SC                
ALREADY SEEN EVACUATING ON 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND FURTHER ERODING LIKELY            
AFTER BRIEF RADIATIONAL STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT FEW/SCT MORE              
THAN BKN/OVC. ST/SC TO RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT IFR UNLIKELY WITH STRONG            
LLJ AND BL WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED. FRONT SHOULD RETREAT AND                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. 25                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
333 AM CST                                                                      
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST                   
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT                  
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO              
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT               
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.           
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT             
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF             
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL            
BELOW GUIDANCE. 42                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  60  72  40 /  10  10  50  30                          
WACO, TX              75  62  73  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
PARIS, TX             72  59  72  41 /  10  10  50  50                          
DENTON, TX            59  54  71  38 /  10  10  50  30                          
MCKINNEY, TX          70  59  73  40 /  10  10  50  40                          
DALLAS, TX            73  60  73  41 /  10  10  50  30                          
TERRELL, TX           74  61  73  42 /  10  10  50  30                          
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  74  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  62  74  45 /  10  10  30  30                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1200 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                                       
IFR/LIFR MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS TAF PD.                                         
LLVLS REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH WED AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ABOVE              
FRONTAL INVERSION DUE TO LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN IL/IND AND             
SERIES OF PASSING MID LVL S/WV TROUGHS. BR/DZ TO PERSIST THRU AFTN              
HOURS...THOUGH DZ ONLY SPOTTY AS WK S/WV RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND S/WV             
TROUGH DEPARTING AREA TO THE EAST. NEXT S/WV APPROACHES FROM SRN                
PLAINS THIS EVE...RESULTING IN NEW ROUND OF OVERRUNNING PCPN DURGN              
THE NGT. TEMPS ABOVE FRZG ALL TERMINALS AT 18Z...AND EXPECT TEMPS TO            
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU TNGT PREVENTING ANY SIG FRZG PCPN THREAT              
EVEN AT KRFD. RA SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF TO DZ AGAIN FOR A TIME WED               
MORN BEWEEN WAVES. CIGS/VIS CURRENTLY IN IFR RANGE ALL                          
TERMINALS...THOUGH LIFR CONDITIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CNTRAL              
IL. THIS LIKELY TO ADVECT NORTH INTO TERMINALS OVRNGT AS LLVL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE FCST TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH                          
TIME...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING WINDS AROUND             
SE OVERNIGHT AND S WED MORNING. THUS HAVE GONE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS             
DOWNT TO 1/2SM AND OVC002 EARLY WED.                                            
HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE SLIGHT IMPROVMENT TOWARD END OF TAF                      
PERIOD...AS MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST AND PUSHES WARM               
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. THIS AND HEAVIER RA DVLPG MIDDAY ONWARD SHOULD             
HELP RAISE CIGS/VIS A BIT. TAF MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH                
TIMING...BUT HOPEFULLY INDICATES TREND INTO WED AFTN.                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES TO CLEAR UP SNFL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN              
ZONES.  PER UPSTREAM 88DS IN IA, THE POTPOURRI OF WEATHER SHOULD                
TAPER DOWN AROUND 10 AM LEAVING LIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE            
REST OF THE DAY. LATEST RUC TEMP VALUES CONTINUE THE TREND FOR A                
...SLOW...UPWARD TREND TO TODAY'S SFC TEMPS...HANGING ON TO NEAR 32F            
TEMPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR               
TONIGHT AS FZDZ COULD BE AN ISSUE NORTH OF I-88. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE            
OUT SOON.                                                                       
...PREV DISC BELOW...                                                           
WILL BE EXTENDING THE END TIME FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO                      
END AT 18 UTC. ONLY NWP CLOSEST TO CURRENT SFC/88D TRENDS IS                    
THE RUC20 AS THE ETA IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC THRU H925. AN INVERTED              
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA, CLEARLY RESOLVED BY THE NRN                          
IL/IN MESONET STATIONS, HAS PLAYED HAVOC WITH THE SFC TEMPS AND                 
AS A RESULT PRECIP TYPES/DURATION. THE TROUGH HAS SLIPPED                       
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PAST 8 HRS INHIBITING SFC TEMP WARM                     
UP. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND APPARENTLY ALONG THE H85 STRENGTHENING              
BAROLCINIC AND CONFLUENCE ZONE, A PERSISTENT MESOBAND OF SN                     
CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I88. THUS FAR UNDER               
THAT BAND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURNEE, 4                 
AT LAKE VILLA AND 3.5 INCHES 7-8 MILES WNW OF RFD. IT APPEARS THE               
THAT BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETWEEN RFD TO UGN FOR ANOTHER FEW                 
HRS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED 6/7" AMOUNTS BASED                 
ON THE AFOREMENTION REPORTS. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WARNING GIVEN                
THE ISOLATED NATURE RESIDING WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER                          
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP IS                    
NOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNRISE...WITH SCATTERED PRECIP                  
CONTINUING THRU THE DAY WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FG/BR. TEMPS SHOULD                
SLOWLY WARM BUT HAVE HELD MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NW                       
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THAT AREA WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO                  
WARM ABOUT 32F. FROM THERE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA FROM TONIGHT                 
THRU THR MORNING AS THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS               
SFC FEATURES VS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-MIDLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.                
TONIGHT NW IN STANDS TO RECEIVE THE LARGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AS                   
THE NEXT S/WV PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF                     
FG FOR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT WILL                
SEE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LAST IN THE RECENT SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS.               
MODEL QPFS PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL                     
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL HOIST AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE                  
CWA VALID 00 UTC THR TO 12 UTC THR AS RUNOFF ATOP THE RESIDUAL                  
SNOW PACK, BLOCKED DRAINS/CULVERTS, AND/OR THE CURRENT HIGH SOIL                
MOISTURE COULD CAUSE LOW SPOTS TO FILL WITH WATER.                              
SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SN LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG                   
COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT. -SHSN LINGER               
INTO THRU MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT THE                  
COLD EXTEND PERIODS IN TACT THIS GO AROUND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...DENSE FOG ADVSRY THRU 6 AM WED FOR                                        
FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANKAKEE...LA SALLE AND LIVINGSTON                   
COUNTIES. FLOOD WATCH ALL IL COUNTIES THRU 6 AM THURS.                          
.IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 6 AM WED BENTON...JASPER...AND NEWTON             
COUNTIES. FLOOD WATCH ALL IN COUNTIES THRU 6 AM THURS.                          
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1255 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT RAIN ENDING OVER CWA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR             
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF                   
THUNDER LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...MENTIONED IN               
FWA TAF TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO              
MENTION THIS AT SBN IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE            
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INITIAL WAVE/I295 CROSS ISALLOBARIC FLOW GENERATING ADVISORY LEVEL              
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA AS FAIRLY FAST MOVING. IN                   
MICHIGAN CURRENTLY BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH               
900-700 MB INITIAL DRY LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR             
SNOW WITH ONE REPORT OF NEAR 2 INCHES ALREADY NEAR STATE LINE. HAVE             
CHANGED HEADLINE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MICHIGAN                        
COUNTIES...FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY              
WITH A MENTION OF BRIEF PL/SN MIX. BUT PRIMARILY ZR AS PTYPE. IN                
WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS AM...IN MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE COLUMN REVERT TO            
FZRA PROFILE PER RUC/GFS SOUNDINGS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT                     
LIFT/COOLING. KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO A BIT BELOW COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE WITH SNOW/ICE COVER AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL BAROCLINIC ZONE              
SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN ETA. PREFERENCE LIES MORE TOWARD                  
CONSISTENT GFS WITH THIS RESPECT. LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER STRONGER                
SHOT OF I300 LIFT WITH GOOD MOISTURE TAP OF 5-6.5 G/KG ACROSS LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT CATEGORICAL BUT NO              
CHANCE TO BEAT MAV WITH 97-100 POPS. FOCUS SHIFTS LATER TONIGHT WITH            
QPF/WARMING TEMPS TO START OF RUNOFF/FLOOD ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD               
SWE OF 1-2 INCHES PLUS ACROSS CWA AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD BASIN               
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS                
HAVE ISSUES FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE               
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
PATTERN...THE NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL FLIP              
INTO A MORE TYPICAL MID WINTER POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BY THE END OF               
THIS WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PNA INDEX FORECAST SHOWING HIGH                    
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. A STRONG PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW              
NOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST             
US AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A                
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CUTTING                  
THROUGH THE LAKES WED NGT AND THURS. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO            
PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TAKE UP ITS TYPICAL MID WINTER                     
RESIDENCE NEAR HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN             
FORECAST OF THE NAO AND AO INDICES INDICATING A GENERAL TREND                   
TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO BY LATE JANUARY SUGGESTING             
THAT THE COLDER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO LOCK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE CONUS.                                                                      
DEEP SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON WED.                
925MB TEMPS SOAR TO +12C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S EVEN WITH                
PURELY MOIST ADIABATIC MIXING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE MOIST AND AMPLE              
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOW 50S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH. INGREDIENTS              
COMING TOGETHER FOR A HEALTHY PERIOD OF RAIN WED NIGHT. PLUME OF                
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CWA WITH PWATS OF OVER 1                 
INCH. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ADVANCING MID               
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH                
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE A BAND OF DEEP              
LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO              
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND              
50.                                                                             
STRONG FROPA THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/CANADIAN GEM/ETA IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WITH THE FRONT BISECTING THE             
CWA AT 12Z THURS. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THIS            
MAKES THE MAX TEMP FORECAST INTERESTING FOR THURSDAY AS JUST A FEW              
HOURS IN TIMING WILL MAKE A 20+F DIFFERENCE. WILL START TEMPS OFF IN            
THE UPPER 40S EAST TO MID/UPPER 30S WEST WITH FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY             
IN VERY STRONG CAA REGIME. BEST FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST OF THE              
CWA DURING THE MORNING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EAST                
THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO CHANCE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY             
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT.                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL                   
DOMINATE THE CWA. NO WEATHER TO WORRY ABOUT SYNOPTICALLY...SO OUR               
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS IN THE                
-20C TO -24C RANGE POURING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURS NGT THROUGH               
SAT NGT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WESTERLY FLOW WITH                      
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND VERY LIMITED AMBIENT MOISTURE.             
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SHORT FETCH AND SPARSE                  
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORTWAVES              
AND SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT CAN                 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP AT TIMES IN THIS KIND OF            
PATTERN. THESE SHORTWAVES CANNOT BE TIMED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FOR              
NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN COUNTIES FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW                  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUB ZERO LOW TEMPS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. BEST CHANCE             
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.               
MI...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.               
OH...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WAMSLEY                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION AND UPDATE...                                                         
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER LOW                  
LEVELS OVER TRI-CITIES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THIS                
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A WARM FRONT AND HEAVIER SHOWERS              
LIFTING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIFR            
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 9-14Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A PERIOD OF                  
FREEZING RAIN FOR KMBS (4-8Z). FLINT HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF             
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THE                  
DETROIT AREA SHOULD ESCAPE SEEING ANY FREEZING RAIN.                            
WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NOW PULLING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION                 
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES               
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS IS            
VERY IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF TONIGHT'S EVENT. STRONG WARM FRONT WILL              
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF WARM                
AIR...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 5 C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH                
SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF              
OF THE CWA...NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING RAIN BEING MUCH OF A                     
PROBLEM...AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD                
ADVECTION. ETA MOST TEMPS ARE MUCH TOO COLD. GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS             
SEEM TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE AT THE PRESENT TIME...AND THUS               
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER               
ADVISORY FOR TRI-CITIES AND THUMB REGION WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.            
PROFILES ACTUALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN THE EVENING...CHANGING TO FREEZING            
RAIN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT BE FORECASTING ANY FREEZING RAIN            
FOR THE ANN ARBOR/DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH.                                
ALL EARLIER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED.                              
&&                                                                              
SF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST TUESDAY                                    
AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDING WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPE              
ISSUES THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG LINE OF                  
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                
ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                
WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL PLAYERS WORKING              
TOGETHER FOR THIS NARROW, YET INTENSE, REGION OF PRECIPITATION.                 
SHORT WAVE, ALBEIT BECOMING MORE STRUNG OUT, WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS             
ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  TO OUR NORTH A DEPARTING 130KT 300MB JET WAS                 
AIDING IN THE LIFT PROCESS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OUR FIRST                
SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH             
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AND 2D-FGEN                  
FORCING WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.                     
HOWEVER, ANOTHER REGION OF THERMALLY INDUCED FGEN WAS WEAKENING TO              
OUR NORTH AS THERMAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 12Z.                
TAKING THE LATEST RUC, REGION OF FGEN AND OMEGA WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN DURING THE              
AFTERNOON AS WAVE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.  AS THE SURFACE, 1012MB LOW              
WAS NEAR KSTL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY WITH                 
1027MB HIGH JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY.                                          
TODAY...                                                                        
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR ADVISORY FOR THOSE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES AND            
EXPAND IT A TIER NORTH THIS MORNING AS THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE                
FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE POSITION OF OUR DEPARTING JET THROUGH THE            
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THIS              
SITUATION BUT DISAGREE WITH SUBTLE, YET SIGNIFICANT, TEMPERATURE                
PROFILES.  SOME ABOVE 0C TEMPS @ 925MB WERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO             
ADG-TTF VICINITY WITH THE LATEST TAMDAR DATA FROM DTW SHOWING SIGNS             
OF NEAR 0C BETWEEN 800-900MBS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK WE WILL               
SEE A LITTLE MORE OF A MIX TO HOLD DOWN OUR ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT              
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  WITH THIS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UPSTREAM RADARS             
VERY BRIGHT THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 6" IF            
WE ARE ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYERS BELOW 0C (WE HAVE 4 G/KG IN THE                  
850-700MB LAYER WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS LAYER).                 
THIS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS WE WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM AND             
DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND PASS TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,            
AS WE LOSE SOME THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE (AOA 700MB), ENOUGH SHEAR IN             
THE PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS THE                  
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD EXPECT TO BE COOLER THAN THOSE                 
ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.  BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND                
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD, WOULD THINK TEMPS HOLDING THE LOWER-MIDDLE              
30S.                                                                            
TONIGHT...                                                                      
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER HEADLINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT.                
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF WARM THETA-E                     
ADVECTION TO OCCUR TOWARD 06Z AS POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS INTO            
THE PLAINS.  SHARP 850MB FRONT WILL SWING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY            
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT                   
APPROACHES.  WITH THAT, WE HAVE AN ISSUE WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS.               
SOUNDINGS AND 3-HOURLY MOS VALUES SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE AN                      
ACCUMULATING ICE EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  THE                 
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS               
USUALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOWER LEVEL TEMPS THAN THE               
GFS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.  HOWEVER, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH                
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP (WHICH WOULD BE ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE INITIALLY) TO RAISE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT              
IN LITTLE OR ANY PROBLEMS.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS WILL NEED             
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO.               
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
WE FINALLY (WE HOPE) LOSE OUR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS SURFACE WARM                
FRONT RACES NORTH.  VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION (850MB JET IN                
EXCESS OF 50KTS) WITH ELEVATED FACTORS SUGGESTING WE WILL NEED TO               
ADD IN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL.  THE INITIAL SURGE WILL OCCUR IN THE             
MORNING BUT WITH STILL DEEP THETA-E AIR OVERHEAD DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THRU THE DAY.  WE                  
SHOULD LOSE OUR SNOW COVER FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB             
THROUGH THE 40S.  WE MIGHT HAVE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG EVENT EARLY              
ON BUT AS WE LOSE THE SNOW COVER...VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY COME UP             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE HEADS INTO THE PLAINS  WITH NEAR PHASING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN LAKES WITH POLAR WAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE DAKOTAS               
OVERNIGHT.  WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSPORTING                 
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" AND ELEVATED STABILITY FACTORS SUGGESTIVE OF A            
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS LATE... WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                   
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...                                                                     
IF TIMING WORKS OUT... WE WILL TRULY EXPERIENCE THE 4-SEASONS IN A              
SPAN OF 12 HOURS.  LINE OF CONVECTION RACES EAST EARLY IN THE                   
MORNING WITH 50 DEGREE TEMPS AND BY AFTERNOON (AKA 00Z)... 850MB                
TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING -15C ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME            
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT IN              
THE ATMOSPHERE.  WITH SUCH A STRONG FROPA...ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS QUICKLY                 
CLIMB AND NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG DECENT.                                     
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE (AND QUITE COLD).                 
ANOTHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED...IN THE FORM A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.             
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS STILL                  
AROUND 15 KTS...WIND CHILL READINGS FALL TO DANGEROUSLY LOW -20F.               
THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION GRR, IWX AND APX!                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BGM                                                                         
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
339 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WX PATTERN GENERALLY              
UNCHANGED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FLOW                  
OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SW WHICH WILL ADVECT WARMER/HIGHER DEW               
POINTS IN THE 60S OVER THE COOL 50-ISH DEGREE COASTAL WATERS. THIS              
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN S WATERS AND AREAS NEAR THE             
BEACHES THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE FOG IS LIKELY TO SPREAD MORE                
INLAND AND LAST THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS ON WED WILL CLIMB A FEW                  
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE LOW 70S. FOR TUE NT/WED COULD            
SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG/STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLEARING TO             
WARM TEMPS NEAR RECORD IN THE MID 70S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS THE GENERAL PATTERN                   
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A                    
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WARM/HUMID TROPICAL AIR WILL             
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON STRONG S FLOW. THIS WILL SATURATE THE AIR             
COLUMN ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THU. BY THU              
NT...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IN THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSRA.             
HIGH QPF VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LVLS OVER AN 1.8" COULD LEAD             
TO TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CWA. HPC                 
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME AREAS RECEIVING AROUND 3-4". AMOUNTS               
WILL EVENTUALLY DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLD FRONT CAN BRING DRIER               
AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL TREND TO SLOW THE                 
FRONT DOWN FRI EVENING....SO WILL NOT TRY AND PINPOINT FROP WITH                
POPS AS YET OTHER THAN LATE FRI. AFTER FROPA...ECMWF SUGGEST A WAVE             
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE            
REGION KEEPING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY ALONG THE                  
COAST THROUGH SAT. THE ECMWF IS FAVORED BY HPC AND WORKS BEST WITH              
SURROUNDING OFFICES SO HAVE BASED TIMING AND POPS PRIMARILY ON IT               
AND A BLEND OF THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME                    
COOLING OFF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE LINGERING LOW                 
OFFSHORE RETURNING LOW LVL MOISTURE...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS AND DEW              
POINTS A FEW DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING              
ANY PRECIP EVENTS...SO NO FROZEN PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE              
SLOW DOWN OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW WILL DELAY THE COLDEST                
TEMPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR FOR MOST PART THIS EVENING WITH FEW AREAS OF MVFR               
VSBY. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE                  
WDSPRD LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LATEST MODEL DATA FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND HAS GOOD                      
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST. INITIALIZED WITH RUC FOR REST OF THIS            
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS THIS THE ONLY MODEL TO PICK UP ON WEAK SFC                
WAVE ON BNDRY OFF S COAST THAT HAS DELAYED WINDS COMING AROUND TO SE            
THIS AFTN. LEANED TOWARD GFS FOR REST OF PERIOD. NO FLAGS THRU WED              
NIGHT...THEN WINDS INCREASING TO SCA THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS             
NOW LOOKING MORE NE BEHIND FRONT OVER WEEKEND WITH FRONT STALLING               
OFFSHORE AND WAVES DEVELPING ALONG IT AND MOVING NE. SPEEDS                     
CONTINUING 20-25 KTS SAT-SUN THEN DECREASING MON. WW3 GENERALLY                 
ACCEPTED FOR SEAS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...21/JAMISON                                               
MARINE/AVIATION...10/MERRELL                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
315 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR FOR MOST PART THIS EVENING WITH FEW AREAS OF MVFR               
VSBY. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE                  
WDSPRD LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LATEST MODEL DATA FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND HAS GOOD                      
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST. INITIALIZED WITH RUC FOR REST OF THIS            
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS THIS THE ONLY MODEL TO PICK UP ON WEAK SFC                
WAVE ON BNDRY OFF S COAST THAT HAS DELAYED WINDS COMING AROUND TO SE            
THIS AFTN. LEANED TOWARD GFS FOR REST OF PERIOD. NO FLAGS THRU WED              
NIGHT...THEN WINDS INCREASING TO SCA THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS             
NOW LOOKING MORE NE BEHIND FRONT OVER WEEKEND WITH FRONT STALLING               
OFFSHORE AND WAVES DEVELPING ALONG IT AND MOVING NE. SPEEDS                     
CONTINUING 20-25 KTS SAT-SUN THEN DECREASING MON. WW3 GENERALLY                 
ACCEPTED FOR SEAS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SJ                                                                 
MARINE/AVIATION...JBM                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
427 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
HAVE USED THE RUC40 FOR THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FCST...THEN                      
HAVE BASICALLY USED THE ETA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT DOES NOT               
DIFFER TOO MUCH FROM THE GFS IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.                     
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA            
AND SOUTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE              
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY               
MORNING.  THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST FOR EARLY JANUARY.                     
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS OVER 300 PERCENT             
OF NORMAL (PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.07 INCHES).  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN NATURE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...           
THEN THEY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS LOW LVL JET              
PROVIDES CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER LVL S/WV PROVIDES MID LVL LIFT.               
AS THE WARM FRONT AND MID LVL S/WV PIVOT NORTHEAST OF CWFA BY                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...REGION BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM                     
SECTOR. HENCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A 20            
OR 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS.  BOTH ETA AND GFS ARE FORECASTING                 
MAINLY 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS AT DAYTON...           
CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS WILL APCH RECORDS FOR THE DATE.                         
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT                  
APCHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  BUFKIT MOMENTUM TOOL INDICATES                
THAT WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 KTS.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION              
AS WIND GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SHALLOW ISOTHERMAL                  
/WEAK INVERSION WILL BE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  AT THIS POINT...            
IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO PLACE THESE GUSTS IN THE FORECAST.  IF THEY COME            
TO FRUITION...A WIND ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE POSTED IN LATER FCSTS.            
OTHERWISE...STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD               
FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ABOUT A 4 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF                            
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT...THEN ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ON THURSDAY.  THERE COULD           
BE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.  ONCE COLD FRONT                  
PASSES BY...PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY.                          
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS DROPPING               
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.                                       
SPECIALLY FOR TEMPS...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ETA MET/GFS MAV.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
ALL EXTENDED MODELS OVER LAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS               
SHALLOWING THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO CNTRL/EASTERN CONUS                
OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDCG MORE OF A ZONAL UPR              
FLO BY LATE WEEKEND...WITH SFC HI PRES ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  12Z GFS             
IS NOW EVEN GOING SO FAR AS TO TRY TO REESTABLISH BROAD SW FLO ACRS             
EASTERN CONUS BY MON NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS SOLN               
HAS BEEN SUGGESTED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE MORE                      
CONSISTENT COLDER DRIER SOLN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST               
SVRL DAYS. WILL WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND BASED ON              
HIGHER BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPS. IT WILL             
STILL BE COLD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS FROM 5 TO 10             
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SVRL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP ACRS GRT LKS ERLY           
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE...EXPECTING JUST AN INCREASE IN              
CLOUDS SUN THRU TUES.                                                           
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS             
A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. AFTER THE            
WAVE GOES BY EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAYTON AND                    
COLUMBUS AREAS. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS THIS                
EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER                   
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE              
TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AFTER                     
DAYBREAK. MAY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS              
WILL BECOME GUSTY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-051>056-                      
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY.                      
IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-091                       
     UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY.                                                  
KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>100 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
353 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO                 
VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
FIRST SYSTEM'S WARM FRONTAL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE FLUX                     
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAIN                    
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THERE IS                    
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER OHIO               
VALLEY...WHICH CAN RESULT IN INCREASED RAINFALL RATES. WITH 6-12H               
COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5                          
INCHES...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO                   
VALLEY COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH TIME                
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD.                                
FOR THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...WENT WITH THE                 
ETA AND GFS MODELS RUNS THAT CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG COLD                   
FRONT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY               
LATE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE STILL                 
ABOUT 6H SLOWER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR               
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWERS...AS THE UPPER JET SWITCHES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIFR CONDS CONT ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA THIS AFTN WITH WRMFNT RMNG               
STRETCHED THRU SRN OH AND NRN WV. AREA OF RAIN CONTS TO SLIDE EWD TO            
THE N OF FNTL BNDRY. TEMPS STILL NEAR FRZG AT DUJ...AND ABV 0C ELSW.            
EXPECT WRMFNT TO MAKE ONLY VERY SLO NWD PROGRESS TNGT...SO LIFR/IFR             
CONDS SHUD PERSIST IN RAIN AND FOG OVRNGT. AS WRMFNT PUSHES NWD THRU            
RGN WED MRNG...CONDS SHUD IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 203 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005)                     
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE 32 DEGF HAVE DROPPED                       
APPROPRIATE WINTER TYPE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. REST WILL END AT               
330PM.                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 839 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005)                      
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
GETTING REPORTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SO HAVE              
ISSUED APPROPRIATE WINTER STORM TYPE WARNINGS. EXPECT                           
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO HPC LATEST FORECASTS...0.5 TO                  
0.8 INCHES THROUGH 00Z. THIS CAN RESULT IN A 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW                 
NORTH WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER 0.25 INCHES. WILL MONITOR RAIN                
IN SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS...BUT 3HR COUNTY FLASH FLOOD               
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES.                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 319 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2005)                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
WL BE A RACE TDA OF PCPN AND WARM AIR VS COLD AIR OVR THE NRN                   
HALF OF THE CWA.  WL MAKE MENTION OF SN...THEN FZRA...TURNING                   
TO ALL RA LTR THIS AFTN FOR THE NRN MOST ZONES.  WL ALSO HAVE TO                
MENTION FZRA AS FAR SOUTH AS PIT GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS ALTHOUGH                   
NOTHING SIGNFICANT WITH RISES IN ACCOMPANIMENT WITH PCPN.  WL                   
GO WITH AN ADVISORY OVR THE NRN ZONES TO COVER NUISANCE OF -FZRA                
AND LGT SN COMBO.                                                               
OTHERWISE...BEST RA CHCS RMNS WITH NWD SURGING WARMFNT THRU                     
WED...PLACEMENT OF WHICH RMNS QNABLE.  CDFNT CONSISTENTLY                       
EXPECTED LATE ON THU.  BOTTOM LINE IS NO MAJOR CHANGES TO POP                   
PROG IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                         
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND LAKE ENHANCED SHSN WL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN                 
THE LONG TERM WITH LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY PROPPING THE DOOR OPEN               
FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS            
PCPN MOVES EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE SOUTHERN              
TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA EXPECT RAIN, BUT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS               
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THERE WILL BE MIX OF SNOW,                
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ALL AREAS WILL GO OVER TO RAIN THIS EVENING            
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DRAWING WARMER, ABOVE             
FREEZING AIR, NORTH INTO OUR FA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ039-OHZ040-OHZ041-OHZ048-OHZ049-OHZ050-                 
     OHZ057-OHZ058-OHZ059-OHZ068-OHZ069 FROM 4 PM TUESDAY                       
     UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                                                     
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ013-PAZ014-PAZ015-                 
     PAZ016-PAZ020-PAZ021-PAZ022-PAZ023-PAZ029-PAZ030-PAZ031-                   
     PAZ032 FROM 4 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                            
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ015-PAZ016                
     FROM 3 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.                                      
  ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PAZ013-PAZ014-PAZ022-PAZ023 FROM 3              
     PM TUESDAY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.                                             
WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ001-WVZ002-WVZ003-WVZ004-WVZ012-WVZ021-                 
     WVZ022 FROM 4 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1039 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STATIONARY FRONT STILL LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH                
WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER              
60S AREAWIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS            
MORNING DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WSW FLOW. THIS                    
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING THE REGION AND THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF              
AND LEAVING THE CWA. RUC/GFS/META ALL SHOW ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE              
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND                
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE (CAPES 400-600 J/KG) WILL LEAVE 30 POPS IN FOR              
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
TEMPS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN               
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO             
REACH THEIR FORECASTED VALUES. IF MORE SUN WERE TO BREAK THROUGH                
THEN FORECAST LOWS MAY BE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHER              
PARAMETERS ON TRACK. ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS.             
.MAIN POINTS OF PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 350 AM...                                
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                
WILL AFFECT THE MID SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH CAPES              
OF 500-600 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -2...AND MODERATE 700-500MB MID LEVEL             
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...I THINK MOISTURE MAY BE THE LIMITING              
FACTOR IN ANY DECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY              
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE MO/KY BORDER.            
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.                           
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONG AWAITED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL             
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MID SOUTH. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE             
TO AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KTS AROUND 03Z THURSDAY AND STRONG                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING /700-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/. FURTHER              
ANALYSIS OF MANY MODIFIED SURFACE AND ELEVATED PARCELS ON MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS PRIMARILY            
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION LIMITS               
INSTABILITY WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER 0-1KM             
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR                   
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS /350-400 M2/S2/ ALONG WITH A RATHER DECENT SHEAR            
PROFILE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. I WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW SUPERCELLS TO              
DEVELOP ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WITH A DYNAMIC BOW ECHO EVENTUALLY                   
OVERTAKING ALL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA AS WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 700 MB DEWPOINT               
DEPRESSIONS WELL OVER 7C. I WILL BE MENTIONING SEVERE THREAT                    
POTENTIAL BOTH IN THE ZFP FORECAST ALONG AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER              
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JFB/CJC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH VFR               
PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS                  
EXPECTED IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.                
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER             
SUNRISE.  NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.  TR/92                                
&&                                                                              
.1050 AM UPDATE...                                                              
WE WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...FOR               
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON PRESSURE                 
FALLS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONT. IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AS A              
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY COULD                
BRING SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AS THE               
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS                 
FORMS...AND AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE                 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS.               
HOWEVER...THE STORMS COULD LINE OUT EARLY. THUS...ANY TORNADO/HIGH              
WIND THREAT MAY COME IN WHATEVER BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THE STORMS ARE            
IN A DISCRETE (MORE ISOLATED) MODE.                                             
THE TEMPERATURES IN FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND PERIOD APPEAR TO BE TOO              
COLD AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT SHOULD PULL MORE MOUNTAIN              
AIR INTO TEXAS 9RATHER THAN ARCTIC AIR)...WHICH WILL WARM SOMEWHAT              
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT             
FEW HOURS...AND LIKELY RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR          
DAYS 3-5. #26                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW PARAMETERS TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND              
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.             42                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
535 AM CST                                                                      
40-45KTS AT 2000FT REQUIRING LLWS MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING.                   
FRONT IN SW OKLAHOMA HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH VERNON. FORWARD PROGRESS            
SHOULD BE STUNTED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THINNING POLAR AIR MASS.               
PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO PULL WINDS WEST OF SOUTH. ST/SC                
ALREADY SEEN EVACUATING ON 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND FURTHER ERODING LIKELY            
AFTER BRIEF RADIATIONAL STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT FEW/SCT MORE              
THAN BKN/OVC. ST/SC TO RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT IFR UNLIKELY WITH STRONG            
LLJ AND BL WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED. FRONT SHOULD RETREAT AND                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. 25                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
333 AM CST                                                                      
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST                   
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT                  
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO              
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT               
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.           
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT             
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF             
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL            
BELOW GUIDANCE. 42                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  60  72  40 /  10  10  50  30                          
WACO, TX              75  62  73  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
PARIS, TX             72  59  72  41 /  10  10  50  50                          
DENTON, TX            59  54  71  38 /  10  10  50  30                          
MCKINNEY, TX          70  59  73  40 /  10  10  50  40                          
DALLAS, TX            73  60  73  41 /  10  10  50  30                          
TERRELL, TX           74  61  73  42 /  10  10  50  30                          
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  74  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  62  74  45 /  10  10  30  30                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1050 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005                                                     
.1050 AM UPDATE...                                                              
WE WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...FOR               
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON PRESSURE                 
FALLS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONT. IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AS A              
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY COULD                
BRING SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AS THE               
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS                 
FORMS...AND AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE                 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS.               
HOWEVER...THE STORMS COULD LINE OUT EARLY. THUS...ANY TORNADO/HIGH              
WIND THREAT MAY COME IN WHATEVER BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THE STORMS ARE            
IN A DISCRETE (MORE ISOLATED) MODE.                                             
THE TEMPERATURES IN FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND PERIOD APPEAR TO BE TOO              
COLD AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT SHOULD PULL MORE MOUNTAIN              
AIR INTO TEXAS 9RATHER THAN ARCTIC AIR)...WHICH WILL WARM SOMEWHAT              
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT             
FEW HOURS...AND LIKELY RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR          
DAYS 3-5. #26                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW PARAMETERS TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND              
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.             42                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
535 AM CST                                                                      
40-45KTS AT 2000FT REQUIRING LLWS MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING.                   
FRONT IN SW OKLAHOMA HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH VERNON. FORWARD PROGRESS            
SHOULD BE STUNTED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THINNING POLAR AIR MASS.               
PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO PULL WINDS WEST OF SOUTH. ST/SC                
ALREADY SEEN EVACUATING ON 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND FURTHER ERODING LIKELY            
AFTER BRIEF RADIATIONAL STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT FEW/SCT MORE              
THAN BKN/OVC. ST/SC TO RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT IFR UNLIKELY WITH STRONG            
LLJ AND BL WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED. FRONT SHOULD RETREAT AND                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. 25                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
333 AM CST                                                                      
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST                   
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT                  
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO              
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT               
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.           
THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT             
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF             
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                                        
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL            
BELOW GUIDANCE. 42                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  60  72  40 /  10  10  50  30                          
WACO, TX              75  62  73  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
PARIS, TX             72  59  72  41 /  10  10  50  50                          
DENTON, TX            59  54  71  38 /  10  10  50  30                          
MCKINNEY, TX          70  59  73  40 /  10  10  50  40                          
DALLAS, TX            73  60  73  41 /  10  10  50  30                          
TERRELL, TX           74  61  73  42 /  10  10  50  30                          
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  74  44 /  10  10  50  30                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  62  74  45 /  10  10  30  30                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx