FXUS04 KWBC 192031 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
430 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 21/0000 UTC THRU MAY 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/GT LAKES...
STG WARM ADVECTION PATRN AHEAD OF POS TILTED S/WV TROF
TRACKING ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP TRIGGER
AN AREA OF INCREASED TSTMS ACRS THIS REGION AHEAD OF ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.  MODELS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS/TIMING THOUGH DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE QPF DETAILS.  WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THIS AFTN
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STGR
AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO A
MORE WSWLY DIRECTION AND HELPS FOCUS HIER PWS OF OVER 1.5
INCHES INTO THE BNDRY.   BASICALLY KEPT BEST ACTIVITY NORTH OF 10
TO 12 DEG 7H ISOTHERM AND NEAR THE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
THICKNESSES.   SITUATION NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT ACRS
WRN MO..WITH POTNL FOR BACK BUILDING/CELL REGENERATION ACRS
PORTIONS OF SRN MN/SRN WI/NE IA AND NRN IL.  THEREFORE WENT
HEAVIER THAN THE MODELS WITH AN AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS
RAINS..WITH ISOLD HIER AMOUNTS.   ANY MCS THAT DVLPS WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK SEWD ACRS THE NRN OH VALLEY THUR THOUGH WRN
END OF FRONT LIKELY WILL FIRE AGAIN IN THE AFTN ACRS IA/IL.   
WITH
FRONT BECOMING MORE E/W ORIENTED...SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
PROBLEMS MAY DVLP LATER IN THE DAY GIVEN POTNL FOR TRAINING. 

SERN U.S...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACRS THIS
REGION INTO THUR AS RELATIVELY HIGH MSTR...PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES.. CONTINUES MAINLY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SWD
TO THE ERN GULF COAST.   SOME WEAK LEE TROFFING OVER ERN VA AND
NC MAY HELP FOCUS SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY..OTHERWISE..MESOSCALE BNDRIES LIKELY WILL BE THE MAIN
INITIATORS OF CNVTN HERE.   WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH
AMOUNTS AS ETA LOOKS A LITTLE DRY. 


...NWRN U.S...
SW FLOW AHEAD OF UPR TROF ESTABLISHED OVR THE REGION WL
SUPPORT MOSTLY DIURNAL RW AND PSBLY TRW OVR A WIDE AREA. PCPN
AMTS WL REMAIN LGT AS MSTR IS LIMITED.
     

DAY 2...

FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ESEWD TO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...  MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
SEWD ALONG BOUNDARY... RESULTING IN A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AREA.  HAVE USED A BLEND
OF THE ETA AND GFS... BUT HAVE KEPT THE ACTIVITY ALIVE LONGER THAN
GFS.  FARTHER UPSTREAM... THE MODELS AGREE THAT MOIST INFLOW
AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AT
THE FOCUS OF MOIST INFLOW... HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL PCPN
FORECASTS.  BUT HAVE ADJUSTED HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SWD A BIT INTO
HIGHER THICKNESSES.

IN THE NORTHEAST... WEAKENING PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD THRU THE AREA.  USED A BLEND OF THE ETA
AND GFS FOR TIMING OF THE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

IN THE SOUTHEAST...  HAVE PLACED SCATTERED GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERY PCPN ALONG MAX OF PW FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO THE
FL PANHANDLE.

IN THE WEST... THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ETA TO KICK A SHORT WAVE
EWD ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER... AS A STRONG SYSTEM DIGS
SWD UPSTREAM IN B.C.   THE ETA IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORT WAVE...
SINCE IT HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.   HAVE USED A
COMPROMISE HERE... BUT HAVE LEANED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE GFS
SINCE IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE UKMET.  THIS MEANS MORE PCPN
MOVING EWD TO THE NORTH OF MT AND ND.   MEANWHILE... FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH... HAVE COMPROMISED... BUT WITH A LEAN TOWARDS SLOWER
AND DEEPER UPPER LOW... SINCE UKMET ALSO SUPPORTS THE GFS HERE. 
PCPN IS A BLEND... BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN ETA AMOUNTS IN
HILLS
OF NV.

 
SULLIVAN/LINDNER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 535771 532760 529751 521734 516727 511719 507705 505699 
      502698 489696 483696 480698 476701 454726 448732 443737 
      437744 432748 425755 418759 410764 402767 395769 392770 
      388770 387766 389765 392761 394757 396744 397727 397712 
      397704 396695 395682 395678 392677 390677 382681 379685 
      378688 374695 368708 363722 358734 350744 346750 344755 
      341768 336782 334789 333797 329802 324808 313816 307820 
      301825 297827 293832 290837 288843 287849 289858 295871 
      296904 297919 298923 301923 305922 308919 312908 315894 
      318890 323885 333877 344867 352864 358863 363861 366855 
      369852 373850 380851 385853 390856 392857 393861 392869 
      393877 389886 389893 390902 393924 401939 402947 402957 
      405973 408981 410984 410989 405004 402011 401019 403027 
      405030 407031 410030 412026 413016 415009 417001 428989 
      435980 439981 444982 448981 450977 452973 454966 456959 
      461957 465957 470960 474964 479970 483977 486980 491983 
      498984 506983 513979 516974 519968 525950 528942 530934 
      534916 536905 536892 536868 540861 542852 541841 539826 
      538819 536810 533798 535784 535774 535771 
 0.01 532165 532156 531149 530131 527118 525110 524098 519066 
      518061 515059 513059 509063 506068 472079 471088 471097 
      470099 467102 462097 449076 445072 441069 436072 433078 
      433081 430083 424084 422089 423098 423102 421104 417102 
      414097 410092 407092 404095 402102 395107 385111 380112 
      378117 379120 381122 387123 391124 395123 401121 407121 
      410123 414126 416133 416137 410146 408148 408152 412156 
      412170 413176 415179 419180 422179 423177 423168 424164 
      424158 423154 423144 425139 431129 435125 437123 440124 
      440128 438134 433142 434147 437151 442164 444170 442179 
      438190 436196 437201 443206 440210 435212 432211 430207 
      429202 426198 419195 413195 410198 407202 397199 384196 
      394210 402218 406222 408228 408229 413228 417229 419233 
      423234 427231 430229 434229 438230 443228 447224 449220 
      448215 453211 454201 459192 461186 466183 472183 476185 
      480190 481195 479200 475202 471206 468206 465208 461211 
      460220 460224 464225 468222 474220 485220 495220 499218 
      501214 500209 499203 501194 505188 509184 518177 527173 
      531169 532165 
 0.01 401046 400038 399033 397028 391025 385021 377022 371027 
      370031 370036 375043 380046 386050 392053 396053 400049 
      401046 
 0.01 342055 338052 333052 327048 321042 316039 313038 301037 
      296038 292040 293046 296049 299051 305051 316050 321051 
      324054 330059 335059 340058 342055 
 0.25 485730 483725 479725 476726 471730 466736 460745 457755 
      456764 455769 452774 446781 440788 439793 438799 441806 
      446814 454817 457818 460822 462822 464820 466816 471807 
      472802 471795 471782 468776 465773 467766 472758 477748 
      482739 485730 
 0.25 508843 503824 499821 494821 480826 473828 470829 467827 
      462825 456829 442836 436839 430838 426835 421827 418822 
      414817 410814 407814 404816 398820 394826 393833 394837 
      397841 404848 406853 407859 408876 405892 403904 404912 
      406922 411936 414952 416962 418965 420963 423955 425948 
      427944 431943 433944 436951 439970 443971 446966 447960 
      449950 450933 453919 454913 455904 454897 450891 451885 
      452882 460880 466877 473875 475876 476881 478891 478901 
      479907 489915 493918 496922 498926 501929 505929 508925 
      510918 512910 513901 513892 508843 
 0.25 522130 522127 521125 520120 519117 518115 517111 516110 
      514108 512110 512114 512119 513124 513126 513128 516133 
      516134 517138 518140 519139 521134 522130 
 0.25 496853 494849 493848 490849 487850 485852 482853 479854 
      476857 477862 478862 481863 484863 486862 487862 489861 
      492860 492859 495857 496853 
 0.25 386726 384723 382723 379724 372731 367735 363740 356748 
      353755 350764 350770 354774 359772 363767 368761 374753 
      384746 386742 387736 386726 
 0.25 360833 359829 358829 355830 352830 351833 350833 348836 
      347838 346840 345842 345846 348848 349848 351848 352847 
      353845 355842 355841 357838 358837 359834 360833 
 0.25 332829 331825 330823 325822 321824 317826 315829 310834 
      308839 305847 305853 306857 310858 313857 317852 321847 
      326841 330835 332829 
 0.50 505896 506891 504887 503884 501884 499883 497884 494886 
      494887 493891 494896 495900 496901 499903 501902 502902 
      505899 505896 
 0.50 467852 467848 465847 462847 459847 458852 458856 459858 
      459860 459865 460866 463866 465862 465861 466857 467854 
      467852 
 0.50 446924 445908 445904 443900 441897 435887 431872 431863 
      426853 421840 417836 414834 411835 410839 413845 417856 
      417862 416868 415880 411890 409899 409906 410914 414925 
      417931 420933 425925 428926 432930 434935 437939 440942 
      442944 444942 445937 446928 446924 
 0.50 421939 418938 418939 419943 419947 420951 420947 420943 
      421939 421939 
 0.50 370748 370744 367742 364743 364744 362747 361749 360750 
      358753 357755 357757 356760 355762 355764 356764 359764 
      362763 364760 365758 366757 368754 370752 370750 370748 
 0.50 321830 320830 317831 317832 312840 311843 313842 319832 
      321830 
 1.00 441930 441921 440913 439906 436898 434895 431889 428887 
      425885 425890 426897 428905 429909 431916 433920 436927 
      438931 441930 
 1.50 436915 437910 437906 436902 434899 433896 430897 430900 
      431904 431906 432908 433911 435915 436915 436915 
 2.00 435907 434904 434907 435908 435907  
 
24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 509658 503639 494619 490611 487607 483601 478599 473601 
      470607 464619 457633 452646 444667 441679 440686 442688 
      446688 445691 443698 439703 432710 427715 421720 413729 
      408733 405738 402741 395742 384748 375748 367746 357746 
      353747 350750 347755 344760 342767 339776 334785 323800 
      316810 308819 303821 297823 287826 283828 285836 287844 
      289852 292859 293866 294876 294880 297881 304878 312875 
      317875 323873 329865 337846 341837 345828 351819 354814 
      360808 364808 367816 370819 376843 384850 394874 396910 
      398943 407958 406972 407001 411022 415033 421045 424046 
      428045 432047 433049 434054 433062 430069 430074 427081 
      422083 412083 406080 402082 400084 398090 395094 392098 
      390105 389109 385112 386116 390119 396117 401117 408123 
      409126 408130 405136 401139 395142 386146 377154 376159 
      376165 380171 381176 380185 376187 373194 373199 375202 
      380207 384210 388213 399219 406220 413220 424206 426207 
      426212 424220 424222 427223 436220 442219 446216 462207 
      468208 471209 472213 472219 473220 481222 487224 491230 
      492238 495243 502253 506258 509263 511264 514263 521255 
      524250 527248 527242 525236 524229 525220 526212 530206 
      534200 537191 538178 545148 546136 545131 542130 530131 
      524130 520127 517124 516121 515116 516109 517091 522078 
      528042 531025 532015 530004 525978 523968 520962 516959 
      510959 507962 504971 501977 495984 491988 488990 487987 
      487970 492937 494923 496905 496899 496894 495891 492885 
      490879 488877 486880 485884 483891 479905 475916 473922 
      471929 469934 467936 467923 471890 473872 474865 474858 
      472850 469844 464840 459838 453837 449837 445840 441845 
      438846 436842 434832 432824 433818 444795 446790 448787 
      451785 463781 468778 473774 483765 489760 497755 502751 
      506749 509744 513739 515735 517732 524720 519701 518694 
      516686 511669 509658 
 0.01 342027 340024 336023 326024 309027 293031 277036 263042 
      257047 253054 254059 257062 266062 285059 292058 299055 
      313048 327041 339031 342027 
 0.25 498690 497683 493680 488678 481675 477678 474681 469689 
      465697 459713 455721 451727 446734 442742 437749 435755 
      434759 435760 439759 443753 448746 455740 471728 479722 
      483717 490708 494701 498690 
 0.25 531165 531159 529151 525147 521144 511138 501132 500125 
      502120 505114 507106 509093 514077 517064 519057 520047 
      522031 523015 523004 522995 520987 517981 513983 510987 
      507992 505999 499030 497046 496059 495069 493074 490088 
      487102 484107 481112 467131 459136 453145 449147 446145 
      442145 439151 440157 444161 451169 461174 466178 470181 
      473185 478188 482186 486180 490169 493163 498162 502164 
      506167 513175 519182 523183 526182 529178 530171 531165 
 0.25 510231 510229 508226 507225 505221 505220 503215 503214 
      500210 500209 498205 496204 495203 494203 492207 493212 
      494214 495217 496220 497222 498225 500228 501229 503232 
      506234 509233 510231 
 0.25 478963 478959 476955 475955 473955 473956 471960 471961 
      470965 469969 469971 469974 468978 468982 470987 470988 
      471986 473982 475977 475975 476972 477968 477965 478963 
 0.25 472003 472999 471998 468998 466000 465000 464004 464009 
      465013 466016 469014 470012 471008 472004 472003 
 0.25 457878 456869 455865 453864 449869 444873 441876 436879 
      432877 430871 430858 428844 427830 423812 421800 420792 
      417784 411770 406759 401758 398760 390768 388772 388776 
      392787 390796 385800 381804 382810 385813 391823 394831 
      396838 399850 403864 406880 411894 414907 415919 415933 
      413946 412954 414962 417974 423982 427986 433988 435988 
      440985 444983 446979 451965 453955 456940 457927 458912 
      458904 458893 457882 457878 
 0.25 405171 406167 407163 406160 406156 403156 400157 397158 
      394160 393161 391165 390165 390168 389172 390173 392176 
      395177 398177 401175 402174 404171 405171 
 0.25 353787 351785 351784 348785 346787 346788 344791 343792 
      342794 341797 340798 338801 338802 336806 337809 340807 
      342805 345803 346802 347801 349798 350797 351794 352792 
      353790 353787 
 0.25 337813 334812 330815 322819 318823 314829 312834 310841 
      312844 315845 319844 323841 327836 332830 334825 335818 
      337813 
 0.50 519025 520018 520011 518997 517993 515991 510998 507008 
      506017 504040 504054 503068 497086 494095 492104 492110 
      496111 499109 502105 506086 511077 514068 516058 516051 
      516044 519025 
 0.50 479164 479159 478155 476152 473150 471150 468150 465151 
      464153 463157 463161 464163 466166 467166 469167 472169 
      475169 477168 478166 479164 
 0.50 454879 452876 449876 446885 443888 439