AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
1000 PM PDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING IN TULARE                               
COUNTY COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT IN THE              
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWERS SPREAD A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED INTO THE TULARE                
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. AT THE MOMENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS                  
DIMINISHING. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING INTO DONNER PASS MAY BRING                
A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO YOSEMITE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
IN THE SIERRA HAVE BEEN LIGHT 0.06 OR LESS. TOULUMNE AND TIOGA PASS             
REPORTED SNOWING MUCH OF THE DAY BUT NOT STICKING TO THE GROUND.                
THE 0Z RUC AND GFS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN                
THE TEHACHAPIS OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CEILINGS FORMING              
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE TEHACHAPI                  
MOUNTAINS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN                
THE VALLEY BUT CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AT HIGHEST                
LEVELS THUS FAR TODAY OVER 19MB SFO-LAS. MODELS PROG THE STRONG                 
GRADIENTS CONTINUING THROUGH 09Z. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR                   
REGION FOR STRONG WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO ZONE FORECAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.                   
HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE              
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.             
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY IN THE KERN                   
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS PORTIONS                
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL CREATE               
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.  FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE              
TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL...AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                    
AVIATION/FIRE WX: DCH                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED A HEALTH CAUTIONARY STATEMENT                
FOR THE VALLEY PORTIONS OF FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,                 
AND TULARE COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                    
MORNING DUE TO PARTICULATE ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING DUST. STAY                   
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID PROLONGED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR PHYSICAL              
ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THE AFFECTS OF UNHEALTHY AIR.                              
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ095-098-099.                      
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ089>092.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MV/JEB                                                                          
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
413 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL CONCERN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS            
AND THEIR STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...                               
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO                 
TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE                
PACIFIC NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT.  WITH HEIGHTS              
RISING OVER THE AREA...WARMER TEMPS WILL BE A GIVEN AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE        
TO BETWEEN +14 TO +16C ACROSS THE WEST...AND +11 TO +14C ACROSS THE             
EAST.  GFS AND NAM STILL HANDLE POSITION OF DEVELOPING LEE TROF                 
DIFFERENTLY...WITH GFS PLACING SFC TROF AXIS/CONVERGENCE ALONG A                
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CALHAN...TO LAMAR AXIS.  WEST OF THIS AXIS...SFC              
DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 30S...AND AS A RESULT...GFS LIMITS                     
CONVECTION TO ACROSS NE/EC CO DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.  NAM12 BY                
CONTRAST...KEEPS S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH DEW               
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED              
BY THE RUC13.  THUS WHILE NAM SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE                     
POTENTIAL ENERGIES WILL BE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG...DRIER GFS IS                  
SUGGESTING MUCH LOWER CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 400 J/KG.  WITH FLOWS                
ALOFT INCREASING TODAY...0-6KM SHEARS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND              
30-35 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME              
FACTORS WHICH DON/T BODE WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS LACK OF A              
SHORTWAVE...AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WHICH COULD CAP CONVECTION.                 
THAT SAID HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR                
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IF               
HEATING ALONE ISN/T SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THEN CAP ACROSS THE ADJACENT            
PLAINS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP PROVIDE                 
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO BREAK THROUGH.  BOTTOM LINE IS...AMOUNT               
AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL HING ON AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE.             
IF DEW POINTS DROP IN THE 30S...THEN POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION               
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. DON/T THINK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL                   
WARRANT MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS DUE TO LACK OF A SHORTWAVE...AND AS             
A RESULT...AM NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL              
TODAY.  BUT...CAN/T RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY EITHER.  THUS...WILL KEEP 10-20        
POPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR (THOUGH               
MARGINAL) ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY AREA...WHERE A COMBINATION OF               
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PROXIMITY TO MTNS...AND WEAKER CAP ALL              
COME TOGETHER.  THOUGH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS               
ACROSS EASTERN PUEBLO...CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...             
BACA...AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...THESE AREAS MAY END UP BEING TOO               
CAPPED.  PLAN TO ADDRESS THESE CONTINGENCIES IN THE HWO.  WILL NOT              
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE INTO GRIDS JUST YET GIVEN THE                       
UNCERTAINTIES.  WILL LET NEXT SHIFT UPDATE IF NEEDED.                           
OVERALL...THINK BEST PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO THE NORTHEAST             
OF THE FCST AREA.  IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING...SEVERE THREAT               
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 58              
MPH.                                                                            
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING                    
MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50                     
MPH...AND LIGHTNING.  HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING             
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (RHS 15% OR LESS AND              
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH)...HOWEVER WITH LAND MANAGEMENT                  
AGENCIES INDICATING FUEL MOISTURES ARE TOO HIGH TO CARRY FIRE DUE TO            
GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.                          
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING...CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY IN THE               
EVENING.  LEE TROF STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE           
GREAT BASIN AND 130KT UPPER JET NOSES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.             
THUS...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND                 
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...WITH MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT             
MINS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. -KT                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
MAIN CONCERN IS HOW WINDY IT MAY BE WED. UPR LOW CENTER IS                      
EXPECTED TO BE OVR ABOUT SRN ID WED MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY EWRD               
INTO ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WL BE A               
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH H7                   
WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND ALL OF THE SERN               
MTS AND PLAINS FROM ABOUT MIDMORNING WED INTO THE EARLY EVENING                 
HOURS...WITH H5 WINDS AROUND 80 KTS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS SUSTAINED                 
SFC WINDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WED AFTERNOON.                
WL GO ALONG WITH SURROUNDING AREAS AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR              
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE SERN MTS AND PLAINS. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE              
QUITE WARM...WITH 90S EXPECTED OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS. IT LOOKS                
LIKE MSTR WITH THIS SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF                
THE SWRN MTS SO WL GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THESE AREAS. COULD              
ALSO SEE SOME PCPN DEVELOP OVR PORTIONS OF THE NRN SANGRES AND THE              
PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY AREA...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WED               
AND WED NIGHT. WED NIGHT THE UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SD AND THE                    
GRADIENT OVR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL DECREASE...BUT THERE WL               
STILL BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE                
SERN PLAINS. DURING THE DAY THU THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT                     
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NRN MN...AND COOLER AIR WL MOVE OVR THE                      
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS...AND A FRONT WL DROP                   
INTO THE SERN PLAINS BY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEA SHOULD BE                
MOSTLY DRY THU AND THU NIGHT. FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE SW TO W AND              
IT STILL LOOKS GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WL WARM UP OVR                
THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR FRI. ON SAT A SHRTWV TROF WL MOVES                 
FROM WY INTO NE AND A WEAK FRONT WL MOVE INTO SERN CO DURING THE                
DAY. BOTH SAT AND SUN THERE WL LIKELY BE A FEW SHRTWVS THAT WL                  
MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS CURRENTLY HAS MAINLY DRY                   
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WHERE WE COULD SEE A              
DRY LINE SETUP AND SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP. MON THE GFS HAS                     
ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF MOVING OVR THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY                   
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN. TEMPS SAT THROUGH MON SHOULD BE WARM. H7                
TEMPS SAT AND SUN ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 16C ACRS THE                 
AREA...AND FROM 14-17C ON MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES              
AFTER 20Z.  MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50             
MPH AND LIGHTNING.  BRIEF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH                
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KCOS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG     
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.                      
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER 03Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES.               
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z WITH HYR MT             
TOP WINDS APPROACHING 45 KTS BY 12Z. LEE TROF STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE            
SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH WEST WIND GUSTS AND ASSOCIATED MT WAVE                 
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KPUB-KCOS-KTAD CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z.                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING                
FOR COZ069>089-093>099.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
952 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS...POPS WILL BE RAISED FOR                 
TODAY. INSPECTION OF THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS MORE MOISTURE                  
REMAINS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE OBSERVED PW IS 1.70 INCHES                
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE MODIFIED THE SOUNDING              
FOR A MAX TEMP OF 92 AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS            
GAVE US A CAPE OF OVER 3800 J/KG WITH AN LI OF -9. CLEARLY THIS IS              
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION, SO LONG AS WE HAVE A TRIGGER.            
SAID TRIGGERS WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE, PLUS ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES              
FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SORT OF                   
BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN THE CU FIELD. THE RUC SHOWS CONVERGENCE AT 850              
MB IN THIS AREA. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE SHORT WAVE                   
UPSTREAM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF JUST S OF LA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE             
SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE DAY, SO WE WILL GET SOME DPVA, AND ALSO SEE             
MID LEVEL TEMPS LOWER, WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE ALREADY SUFFICIENT            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCAL SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT FOR              
WLY 1000-700 MB MEAN VECTOR WINDS OVER 10 KT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS            
AT LEAST 50 PERCENT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE WORKSTATION WRF IS COMING            
IN AND SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 17-18Z OVER INLAND                    
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION                
THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND. THE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF             
THE SOUNDING IS IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE, WE WERE NOT REALLY ALL THAT              
SURPRISED TO SEE THE UPDATED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT PLACES THE FL              
BIG BEND AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR S GA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR                  
SEVERE TODAY. WINDS SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND              
SUPERCELLS. ABOUT THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIR WE SEE            
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OUR NRN ZONES. THIS APPEARS TO BE                   
PUSHING MORE TO THE E THAN SE, SO WE THINK THAT THIS WILL ONLY                  
IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES. WE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO               
ADDRESS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PRELIMINARY POPS WERE UPDATED AT               
THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE SWLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED OVER THE COASTAL                 
WATERS. WILL TWEAK WINDS UP OVER THE NEAR SHORE LEGS TO REFLECT                 
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS IN THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. WILL ALSO               
ADD ISOLATED TS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW AND ONSHORE FOR THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL DAYS. VERY LIGHT WIND AND MINIMAL SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY            
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE TRYING TO               
SCATTER OUT AND RISE WITH MORNING HEATING. SHOULD SEE ALL TERMINALS             
AT VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE PRODUCING RAPID CU DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT             
THE AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF KPFN TO KTLH AND KVLD MAY BE A BIT MORE             
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL UPDATE THE              
TAF PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A FEW OF THE STORMS NEAR THIS                  
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND ACROSS TWEB ROUTE 112 AND NORTHERN TWEB ROUTE            
117 MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AND               
VERY GUSTY WINDS. VIS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY LOCALLY AND                  
BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH            
ACTIVITY ENDING BY LATE EVENING. WILL BE LOOKING FOR THE POTENTIAL              
FOR MORE LOW CLOUD/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING OVERRUN BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR.                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO              
KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
THE WEEK. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
301 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH HELPED                 
TRIGGER STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WILL LIFT OUT TODAY             
ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS. RESULT FOR TODAY WILL BE A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE                  
MOISTURE AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTN AND EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA                
BREEZE. EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE WELL INLAND WITH                   
SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME TYPE OF               
LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY            
BUT THIS SEEMS RATHER SUSPECT ATTM. HAVE OPTED TO GO MUCH CLOSER TO             
NAM WHICH INDICATES ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY INLAND SEABREEZE                      
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY            
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO HOLD A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE                  
COAST...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
LIMITED.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND                 
AREAS AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER GULF. MID 90S LIKELY                
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS TO BE A FEW                
DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THEN WARM UP FRIDAY INTO THE              
WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY.              
LONG TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT WEST ON SATURDAY...A WEAK               
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ADDED CONVERGENCE WITH             
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD              
TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE DAY FOR SATURDAY. BEYOND                    
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN WITH             
ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH THE               
RIDGE IN PLACE...RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  92  71  91  70  91 /  40  10  20  20  30                           
PANAMA CITY  88  74  88  74  89 /  20  10  20  20  30                           
DOTHAN       94  72  91  71  91 /  30  10  30  20  30                           
ALBANY       95  71  94  72  93 /  20  20  30  20  30                           
VALDOSTA     92  69  93  70  92 /  40  10  30  20  30                           
CROSS CITY   89  69  91  70  91 /  30  10  20  20  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MROCZKA                                                              
CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CAMP                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
951 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...              
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE IS DEEPENING WITH PWATS ABOVE             
2 INCHES IN S FL AND AROUND 1.8 IN ACROSS C FL. SOME MID LEVEL DRY              
AIR STILL PRESENT AND MID LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL WITH -11C AT               
H5. THICK CLOUD DECK HAS DELAYED HEATING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC             
ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME NVA OVER THE C PENINSULA AT PRESENT. WITH                 
SHORTWAVE/PVA UPSTREAM AND FAVORABLE JET LIFT WITH THE RIGHT                    
ENTRANCE REGION OF  UPPER JET MAX...ANTICIPATE ONCE THE STORMS GET              
GOING THEY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE               
WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT              
ISOLATED TORNADO/SPOUT WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST             
INDICATING N-S POP TREND WITH HIGEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH...THIS                 
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR             
ZONES/GRIDS AND INDICATED THREATS IN HWO.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FEW MVFR AREAS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH                  
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR INCREASING DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AROUND 03Z WITH NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY AOB 10KT/2 FT TODAY SO MAIN                  
CONCERN TO BOATERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN              
THROUGH EVE. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT...              
FREQ LTG STRIKES AND POSSIBLY A WATERSPOUT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO                                                    
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK                                                            
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
555 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH #348 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR ALL             
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES...                                 
ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY FL BIG BEND AND GA ZONES.              
AT UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS SE WITH SERIES OF VORT              
MAXES ROTATING AROUND BASE. ONE VORT MAX (PER RUC) MOVING THRU                  
WCNTRL GA AND H5 50 KT JET ACROSS N FLA. S OF VORT...WLY H5 FLOW                
AIDING DEEP LYR SHEAR. AT SURFACE...MSAS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH FROM              
CNTRL NC SWWD THRU NRN GA AND INTO SE ALA. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY             
SET UP FROM NRN FL THRU WRN GA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF                  
BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW AIDED BY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD                  
INSTABILITY. LIGHTER SLY FLOW ALLOWED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE            
INLAND. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ESPECIALLY AT LOWER LEVELS FAVORING                 
SPLITTING CELLS AND INCREASE CHANCES OF LARGE HAIL AS CLEARLY SEEN              
EARLIER IN VCNTY OF LEON AND GADSDEN COUNTIES. SEVERAL PEOPLE IN NE             
LEON/NE JEFFERSON REPORTED SEEING FUNNEL CLOUD AT THE SAME TIME                 
AREA RADAR SHOWED AMPLE ROTATION AND GATE TO GATE SHEAR                         
NECESSITATING A TORNADO WARNING.                                                
ACTIVE CONVECTION SEEMS A GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER GA ZONES AND WILL BE MONITORED JUSTIFYING THE SVR               
TSTM WATCH.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK                                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY JUNE WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH                 
COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. OUR FORECAST             
AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH KEEPING             
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN               
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WE STILL SEE A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE                 
FIRST IS SHOWN BY WV AND 12Z RUN ANALYSIS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL                
GEORGIA DOWN TO OFF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. THE LIFT FROM THIS                   
SHORTWAVE IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE              
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL              
WATERS UP INTO THE CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN GA...THROUGH THE BIG BEND             
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING                
PROFILE NOT SHOWING THE GREATEST PROFILE IN TERMS OF LAPSE RATE BUT             
IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT             
OF SURFACE HEATING WHICH WE ARE GETTING IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THE              
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY EVEN HELP TO IMPROVE THESE LAPSE              
RATES A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX (40-50KTS) IS              
ALSO EXPECTED OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH IS DOES NOT            
RESULT IN BULK SHEAR LEVELS THAT ARE OFF THE CHARTS...IT DOES GIVE              
VALUES BETWEEN 35-45KTS. THESE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT                 
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY              
WINDS. THE DEEP BUT THIN CAPE PROFILE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF                
POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED             
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF            
THE AREA REMAINS VERY DRY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM T.S                 
BARRY LAST WEEKEND. FOR THESE AREAS THE GROUND/STREAMS CAN GENERALLY            
HANDLE THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE               
SURE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS DO NOT OCCUR. THE NEXT IN A SERIES            
OF SHORTWAVES IS NOW ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LA AND              
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE                  
APPROACHES LATER TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ESPECIALLY THE                   
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION                
DURING THE VERY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUNDS OF              
CONVECTION. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE                  
MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE              
RISE IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED FOR SOUTHERN GA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA            
BIG BEND THIS MORNING UNTIL THE CLOUD/TSTORMS COVERAGE DECREASES.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS, WE`VE UPDATED ALL COASTAL               
LEGS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL             
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN BEGIN TO RELAX             
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED WINDS TODAY...BOATERS               
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE                
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WATERS LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE               
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE MID TO               
LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT            
THE TERMINALS THAT GET THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE ON THE             
HIGH SIDE, SO MOST SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PFN              
AND TLH HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME CONVECTION, AND MORE IS ON THE WAY.              
VLD SHOULD ALSO GET SOME STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS            
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AT DHN AND ABY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS               
AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS              
PREVAILING AT THE TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WILL BE                
POSSIBLE WED MORNING.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER....NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS               
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                     
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
231 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL                    
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE               
CENTRAL GULF COAST. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE                
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE NEXT IN THE SERIES CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH              
LOUISIANA. CURRENT MOTION WILL BRING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY...HELPING TO                   
SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. 50KT+ SPEED MAX IS                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTMAX AT 500MB WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP            
LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE                
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA                
BACK INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.                                              
AS UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY...THE TRAIN OF IMPULSES WILL               
HALT AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL               
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE                 
LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR                   
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM AND CONVECTION                    
REMAINING LIMITED.                                                              
.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF                 
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE                 
INDICATES A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                  
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON                              
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY. RIDGE LOOKS TO REESTABLISH OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY WARMING                 
THINGS UP AND DRYING THINGS OUT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A EARLY MORNING            
SHOWER AT PFN AND SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL AIRPORTS AROUND                   
SUNRISE. LATER ON TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT TEMPO             
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN LOW                 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.              
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THIS                  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING RIDGE AT SFC AND ALOFT               
ALLOWS GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE AND WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP OFF                      
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CURRENT OBS                    
SUGGEST EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED WITH MORNING PACKAGE. WILL              
MONITOR FOR NEXT HOUR OR SO AND GO WITH THE TREND.                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL KEEP              
RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  87  69  92  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20                           
PANAMA CITY  85  73  88  74  88 /  30  20  10  10  30                           
DOTHAN       88  69  91  72  94 /  40  10  10  10  20                           
ALBANY       89  68  92  70  93 /  40  20  10  10  20                           
VALDOSTA     88  67  92  69  93 /  30  30  20  10  20                           
CROSS CITY   88  69  91  70  92 /  20  20  20  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAMP/WATSON                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1253 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1043 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                               
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT                        
ESPECIALLY NW OF I-70 WHERE BREEZY SSE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.                    
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER                  
TO MIDDLE 80S.                                                                  
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAKE ERIE                
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO FL. A STRONG                 
984 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL WY WITH A 987 MB                 
LOW OVER WESTERN SD. COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL NC/TN AND TURNED               
INTO A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL MO TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN                      
SD.ALOFT A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE UPPER              
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND LARGE               
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR/ID. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL              
IL AND SUNNY SKIES EASTERN IL THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED MID                   
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WEST OF I-57. WARM AIR                      
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST                   
CENTRAL IA AND MOVING EAST. TEMPS WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER                 
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LAWRENCEVILLE UP TO 76F. SSE WINDS 8 TO 15                
MPH AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM I-55 WEST.                                   
RUC AND NAM/WRF LIFT WARM FRONT QUICKLY NE ACROSS IL THIS                       
AFTERNOON. JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IL                 
WHILE CONVECTION CHANCES STAY NW AND NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. BUFKIT                
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM MID AFTERNOON           
AND INTO THIS EVENING NW OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON. SO INCREASED SSE WINDS          
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NW OF I-70 TO BREEZIER LEVELS. HIGHS IN              
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON TRACK WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-74                
NE.                                                                             
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                               
WIND SPEED WAS BIGGEST CONCERN IN TAF FORECAST THROUGH 18Z/THU.                 
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG 983 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE WY DEEPENING               
TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN MN BY 18Z/THU. TIGHTENING                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER IL TO INCREASE SSE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KTS                 
WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 28 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20                
KTS TONIGHT WHILE SSW WINDS 45 TO 55 KTS AT 2000 FT TONIGHT...SO                
ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TO ALL CENTRAL IL TAF SITES FROM              
01Z TO 13Z/THU. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS              
THU MORNING FROM 13Z TO 18Z AND WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER INTO WIND               
ADVISORY CRITERIA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDED VICINITY SHOWER AT               
PIA FROM 18Z TO 20Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION. MORE                
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER NE IA...SW WI AND NW IL TO STAY NORTH                
OF I-80 AS IT MOVES EAST. HAVE SCATTERED HIGH BASE CUMULUS CLOUDS               
FROM 6 TO 8 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT PIA                
AND BMI INTO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT TO BKN 25 KFT CIRRUS                  
CLOUDS. NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH P6SM.                                   
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND AN APPROACHING RIDGE ALOFT THIS                    
MORNING FOR THE REGION. A RATHER QUIET DAY IN THE SHORT                         
TERM...WITH THE AREA IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE NEXT               
VIGOROUS FRONT LIKELY TO BRING SOME NASTY WEATHER TO THE REGION.                
MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT MORE AGREEMENT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A                
BLEND THROUGH DAY 5.                                                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...                                              
FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER AND KEEPING THE                
REGION FAIRLY DRY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO START THE                  
WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH                        
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THE HIGHEST FOR THE WEEK...INTO THE 90S               
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. H85 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 20C...AND                  
SUNSHINE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MAY ACTUALLY SEE A                 
SLIGHT JUMP IN GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS AS THE FRONT                 
HAS SLOWED ITS APPROACH...AND THE REGION IS LIKELY TO HAVE LESS                 
CLOUD COVER THROUGH MAX HEATING.                                                
FRONT IS SLOWING IN ALL DEPICTIONS...AND WILL ONLY BARELY BE                    
GETTING INTO THE FAR NW DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AREAS NW OF THE               
ILLINOIS RIVER ARE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THURSDAY...WITH              
THE REST OF THE CWA (SAVE THE EXTREME SE) IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR                  
SEVERE WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURN AT THE SFC ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE               
HIGH IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE MODELS...AND COULD BE THE UNKNOWN               
ENTITY AS FAR AS THIS FORECAST GOES. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AHEAD               
OF THE FRONT WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG...THOUGH DIRECTIONALLY NOT                
MUCH TO LOOK AT. TRICK FOR THE CWA IN CENTRAL IL IS THE TIMING OF               
THE FROPA IN RELATION TO THE MAX HEATING/INSTABILITY OF THE DAY.                
WIND PROFILE WILL ADD ASSISTANCE TO MAINTENANCE OF CELLS ONCE THEY              
GET GOING.                                                                      
SUCH A DYNAMIC WIND PROFILE ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER PROBLEM INTO THE                
FORECAST. THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX DOWN RELATIVELY                           
EARLY...PUTTING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS FOR THU AFTERNOON FOR                  
MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE. TRAVEL               
ON EAST/WEST ORIENTED ROADS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE                        
VEHICLES...WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND                
ADVISORY LIKELY... JUST SHY OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.                      
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER THROUGH THE                   
REGION...AND TEMPS AND POPS HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY IN THE WAKE                
OF THE FRONT. LINGERING POPS IN THE SE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT                   
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH...THEN DRYING OUT FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                 
SOME LOW POPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR A WAVE THAT EJECTS              
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE PULLED THE POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS IT IS              
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS. WILL              
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.                                                        
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                      
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
1040 AM CDT                                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER              
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS                
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED              
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE                   
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.            
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO WILL AID IN SCATTERED PRECIP               
COVERAGE TODAY WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN             
ILLINOIS. MODIFICATION OF ACARS SOUNDINGS WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON               
NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED            
CAPE SO WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING                   
POSSIBLE. DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD JUST A SHADE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL             
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.                                                 
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
345 AM CDT                                                                      
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN              
THE NEAR TERM...THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT VERY SLOWLY TRACKED THROUGH            
THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BUT IS STILL EXERTING               
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE.  WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN HAS                 
EVOLVED FROM THE CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH...THE SLOW PROGRESSION            
OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER              
THE ROCKIES HAS SET UP NWLY ALOFT.  WEAK SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO                
DROP SELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER THE LOCAL                
AREA.  UNTIL THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...THERE              
WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE LOCAL AREA.                     
THIS...HOWEVER...IS COMING AS A STRONG SYSTEM CRASHES ONSHORE IN THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FORCING A GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE            
PATTERN.  THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT ON               
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO CHOICE OF GUIDANCE               
REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE HANDLED FOR             
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  IN THIS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE              
NAM SOLUTION WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PACIFIC             
SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...QUITE DEEP FOR                      
APPROACHING EARLY SUMMER...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PRUDENT COURSE.  THE             
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO INCREASE                      
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA...PARTICULARLY MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH FRIDAY.  BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE NAM BEGINS TO BRING IN 850             
MB TEMPS OF 18-19C TO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THURSDAY...THERE             
SHOULD BE A RIBBON OF 20C 850MB TEMPS FROM ST. LOUIS TO CHICAGO.                
THUS...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOW              
90S.  THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR THE                
UPPER MIDWEST.  IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM...AN                     
UNSEASONABLE DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NRN MINNESOTA BY              
THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL SET UP A PATTERN OF STRONG WARM                    
ADVECTION WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED                  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL.  LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE BEST              
INSTABILITY MOVES OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH BOTH THE             
NAM AND GFS SHOWING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.                          
SO...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY...WITH SURFACE              
WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY AND                     
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE              
GFS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAY IN                   
DEVELOPING THIS SCENARIO...SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT                    
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.  BEYOND THIS...HAVE NOT             
MADE ANY SGFNT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE LONG RANGE.             
STILL EXPECTING A STG COLD FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH THE REGION BY                 
FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY JUNE             
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
630 AM CDT                                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...RATHER VIGOROUS MID LVL S/WV QUITE EVIDENT ACROSS                
NERN IL/NWRN IND IN GOES VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY EARLY THIS MRNG. AREA            
OF ELEVATED RW/TRW OCCURRING AHEAD OF VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS             
FEATURE HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS INTO NWRN IND. HOWEVER TWO            
OTHER WEAKER S/WVS ALSO NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY UPSTREAM...ONE MOVG              
SE ACROSS MN/WI UPPER MS VLY AND ANOTHER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. THESE              
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER TROF OVER GRTLKS REGION TODAY                  
BEFORE MOVG EAST OF FCST AREA LATE AFTN. WRF INDICATES -20 DEG C 500            
HPA TEMPS IN COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH WRF AND RUC BOTH DVLPG WEAK                 
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR MORE OF SBCAPE BY AFTN. 06Z              
WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE QPF MRNG INTO EARLY                        
AFTN...BEFORE MID LVL TROF MOVES THROUGH AND HGT RISES/SUBSIDENCE               
DVLPS ALONG WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION TO BRING AN END TO SCT PCPN.                
THUS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A BKN VFR CU FIELD AND PERHAPS              
VCNTY RW MENTION THRU ABOUT 20Z OR SO. CLR SKIES THEN XPCTD TNGT AS             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THRU FCST AREA.                                 
AS FOR WINDS...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION                  
ACROSS ECNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK              
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FCST AREA ALLOWING LGT/VRBL WINDS EARLY.               
WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE DURG MORNING BETWEEN DEPARTING SFC            
WAVE AND APPROACHING HIGH. THIS FAVORS NELY LAKE BREEZE PUSH FOR                
KORD/KMDW/KGYY BY AFTN. SPEEDS GNRLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO. SFC HIGH              
MOVG SOUTHEAST OF AREA THIS EVE BRINGS WINDS LGT SE/S OVRNGT.                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
345 AM CDT                                                                      
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE                  
EASTERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM LAKE                
MICHIGAN TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BUILDS                   
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING            
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING AS            
THE HIGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN            
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE               
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS             
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY             
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST            
COAST. THE DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN            
CONTINUE ACROSS ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. THE STRONG SURFACE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS                      
INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH THE POTENTIAL            
FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING            
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS              
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WHILE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WIND SPEED                 
DIMINISHES AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
345 AM CDT                                                                      
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN              
THE NEAR TERM...THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT VERY SLOWLY TRACKED THROUGH            
THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BUT IS STILL EXERTING               
SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE.  WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN HAS                 
EVOLVED FROM THE CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH...THE SLOW PROGRESSION            
OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER              
THE ROCKIES HAS SET UP NWLY ALOFT.  WEAK SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO                
DROP SELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER THE LOCAL                
AREA.  UNTIL THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...THERE              
WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE LOCAL AREA.                     
THIS...HOWEVER...IS COMING AS A STRONG SYSTEM CRASHES ONSHORE IN THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FORCING A GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE            
PATTERN.  THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT ON               
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO CHOICE OF GUIDANCE               
REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE HANDLED FOR             
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  IN THIS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE              
NAM SOLUTION WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PACIFIC             
SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...QUITE DEEP FOR                      
APPROACHING EARLY SUMMER...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PRUDENT COURSE.  THE             
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO INCREASE                      
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA...PARTICULARLY MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH FRIDAY.  BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE NAM BEGINS TO BRING IN 850             
MB TEMPS OF 18-19C TO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THURSDAY...THERE             
SHOULD BE A RIBBON OF 20C 850MB TEMPS FROM ST. LOUIS TO CHICAGO.                
THUS...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOW              
90S.  THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR THE                
UPPER MIDWEST.  IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM...AN                     
UNSEASONABLE DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NRN MINNESOTA BY              
THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL SET UP A PATTERN OF STRONG WARM                    
ADVECTION WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED                  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL.  LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE BEST              
INSTABILITY MOVES OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH BOTH THE             
NAM AND GFS SHOWING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.                          
SO...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY...WITH SURFACE              
WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY AND                     
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE              
GFS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAY IN                   
DEVELOPING THIS SCENARIO...SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT                    
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.  BEYOND THIS...HAVE NOT             
MADE ANY SGFNT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE LONG RANGE.             
STILL EXPECTING A STG COLD FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH THE REGION BY                 
FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY JUNE             
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
630 AM CDT                                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...RATHER VIGOROUS MID LVL S/WV QUITE EVIDENT ACROSS                
NERN IL/NWRN IND IN GOES VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY EARLY THIS MRNG. AREA            
OF ELEVATED RW/TRW OCCURRING AHEAD OF VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS             
FEATURE HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS INTO NWRN IND. HOWEVER TWO            
OTHER WEAKER S/WVS ALSO NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY UPSTREAM...ONE MOVG              
SE ACROSS MN/WI UPPER MS VLY AND ANOTHER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. THESE              
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER TROF OVER GRTLKS REGION TODAY                  
BEFORE MOVG EAST OF FCST AREA LATE AFTN. WRF INDICATES -20 DEG C 500            
HPA TEMPS IN COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH WRF AND RUC BOTH DVLPG WEAK                 
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR MORE OF SBCAPE BY AFTN. 06Z              
WRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE QPF MRNG INTO EARLY                        
AFTN...BEFORE MID LVL TROF MOVES THROUGH AND HGT RISES/SUBSIDENCE               
DVLPS ALONG WITH LLVL DRY ADVECTION TO BRING AN END TO SCT PCPN.                
THUS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A BKN VFR CU FIELD AND PERHAPS              
VCNTY RW MENTION THRU ABOUT 20Z OR SO. CLR SKIES THEN XPCTD TNGT AS             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THRU FCST AREA.                                 
AS FOR WINDS...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION                  
ACROSS ECNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK              
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FCST AREA ALLOWING LGT/VRBL WINDS EARLY.               
WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE DURG MORNING BETWEEN DEPARTING SFC            
WAVE AND APPROACHING HIGH. THIS FAVORS NELY LAKE BREEZE PUSH FOR                
KORD/KMDW/KGYY BY AFTN. SPEEDS GNRLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO. SFC HIGH              
MOVG SOUTHEAST OF AREA THIS EVE BRINGS WINDS LGT SE/S OVRNGT.                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
345 AM CDT                                                                      
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE                  
EASTERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM LAKE                
MICHIGAN TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BUILDS                   
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING            
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING AS            
THE HIGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN            
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE               
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS             
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY             
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST            
COAST. THE DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN            
CONTINUE ACROSS ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. THE STRONG SURFACE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS                      
INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH THE POTENTIAL            
FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING            
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS              
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WHILE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WIND SPEED                 
DIMINISHES AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SCA FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY UNTIL 16Z TODAY.                
ANOTHER SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1230 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.                                     
WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THRU THE PD. HI PRESSURE WL BUILD            
IN OVR THE SITES. MODEL SNDINGS INDICATE SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE 12Z AT            
ALL SITES BUT KIND. CROSSOVER TEMPS USED FOR THIS LOOK REASONABLE SO            
WL STICK WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF 5SM AT ALL SITES BUT KIND WHERE THE             
HEAT ISLAND EEFECT WL KEEP THE TEMP FROM DROPPING TOO CLOSE TO THE              
DEWPT. MIGHT CONSIDER LOWER VSBYS AT KHUF AND KBMG WHERE DEWPTS ARE             
HIGHER. EXPECT A FEW CU TOMORROW BUT NOT ENUF FOR A CIG.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAIN              
CONCERN WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RUC HAS A FAIRLY STRONG S/W THAT WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                
POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET THE THUNDERSTORMS               
SHOULD DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT PRECIP WATER DROPS TO AROUND .50 INCH.              
LIFTED INDEXES INCREASE TO AROUND +3. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN              
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE THIS WILL CONFIRM THAT THE TSTMS                
SHOULD DECREASE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EITHER NEAR PRVS MODEL RUNS OR                
SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF              
GOOD. WILL GO NEAR PRVS FCST TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
BUILD INTO AREA. THIS WILL KEEP STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL                   
INCREASE SOME BUT THE BIG WARM UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LATER                
PERIODS.                                                                        
LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
THE MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE QUICK WARM UP.             
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY 850 MB                
TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 8C. THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG FLOW FROM THE             
SOUTH. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG WAA TEMPS              
WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO                 
INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. A BIG CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL ALLOW               
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH INDIANA. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND               
DRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL                
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE OVER THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH OVER THE                
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPS WILL               
OCCUR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CWA CURRENTLY IN DRY SLOT PER WV                         
IMAGERY...THOUGH A FINAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS NERN IL IN CYCLONIC FLOW              
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT WARRANTS A CONTD SLIGHT CHC MENTION               
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN PERIOD. AS EASTERN GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED TROF              
CONTINUES TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO COASTAL SYSTEM...CU FIELD TO QUICKLY            
DWINDLE WITH LOSS OF INSULATION AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES                  
STRAIGHTLINE THEN WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC BY DAYBREAK. FOG DEVELOPMENT A            
CONCERN...THOUGH FAVOR DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH UPSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS            
IN LOWER 40S TO PORTEND CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE TO RADIATIONAL FOG               
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH FAR SERN/SRN CWA WHERE DRYING OF NEAR SURFACE               
LAYER NOT AS DEEP WITH WEAK WAVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN                  
INDIANA SLOWING DEEPER AIRMASS EXCHANGE. CONSIDERABLY WARMER ON                 
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG HEATING/NEAR FULL SUN WITH PWAT BELOW 0.50                
INCHES AND START OF RETURN FLOW...IN LOWEST 5KFT IN WESTERN CWA.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING TO STAY NORTH OF            
US...LEAVING OUR CWA DRY. THURSDAY STILL LOOKING DRY WITH THE                   
WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE COLD FRONT OUT TO OUR            
WEST YET. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE GOING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING                    
THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 90. 850MB                     
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. EVEN THOUGH            
WILL BE VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT WE COULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH...AN INVERSION IN THE                 
MIDDLE LEVELS...TO HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO                    
MOISTURE MIGHT JUST BE LIMITED ENOUGH. THEN THURSDAY NIGHT THAT COLD            
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EVEN CLOSER...TO ABOUT CHICAGO TO SOUTHEASTERN             
MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY                    
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN                
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND MOVE INTO            
OHIO AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z SATURDAY. DID NOT GO WITH NON             
DIURNAL TEMPS YET FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY...BUT AS THOSE              
TWO PERIODS GETS CLOSER...IT WILL STAND TO BE WATCHED WHETHER THE               
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE                
TEMPS DURING THE NIGHT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD FRONT MOVES                  
THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR COLD AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN             
AND DROP TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB DO              
SHOW THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.                             
GFS...NAM/WRF...GEM...ECMWF HAVE ALL COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND. ALSO THE LAST               
FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM/WRF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING              
THIS HIGH MOVE IN AND THE WEEKEND DRY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH                 
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH                    
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS OUT            
YET AND WANT TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE                  
ALTERING THIS TIME FRAME. THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN WILL HELP TO MAKE             
FRIDAY COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND THEN 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY              
WARMER THEN BY NEXT TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD TO QUICKLY DIMINISH...FOLLOWED BY                     
PATCHY/SCT ALTOCU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 850-7H MID LVL FLOW                 
BECOMES WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HI PRES            
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. PRIMARILY VFR              
THRU 00Z THURSDAY AS HI PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL IN DRY AIRMASS.             
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN                  
SHALLOW BR IN VICINITY OF KFWA NEAR DAYBREAK WITH LATEST RUC                    
GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO HINT AT. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO              
SITE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH LWR/MID 40S SFC DEWPOINTS                       
IMMEDIATELY NW-N OF KFWA PER MESONET STATIONS...WILL LIKELY NEGATE              
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL DEFER TO 06 UTC ISSUANCE AND                  
MONITOR TEMP/DP DEPRESSIONS AROUND KFWA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...EDDY                                                               
LONG TERM....LOTHAMER                                                           
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
725 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.                                     
AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU WL KEEP SOME ISOLATED TSRA AROUND THE              
AREA IN THE 0-6Z TIMEFRAME. THE LACK OF HEATING AFTER SUNDOWN SHUD              
ALLOW STORMS TO TRANSITION INTO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE 6Z.                
SINCE ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH AN                  
UNKNOWN SPECIFIC LOCATION WL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. GUIDANCE AND SNDINGS            
INDICATE SOME MVFR VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK. NAM HAS THESE AROUND FOR A              
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME BUT MOISTURE IN THIS MODEL IS OVERBLOWN. WL               
PUT IN MVFR VSBYS 10-13Z. MAY SEE FEW-SCT040 TOMORROW BUT NO CIG                
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAIN              
CONCERN WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RUC HAS A FAIRLY STRONG S/W THAT WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                
POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET THE THUNDERSTORMS               
SHOULD DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT PRECIP WATER DROPS TO AROUND .50 INCH.              
LIFTED INDEXES INCREASE TO AROUND +3. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN              
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE THIS WILL CONFIRM THAT THE TSTMS                
SHOULD DECREASE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EITHER NEAR PRVS MODEL RUNS OR                
SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF              
GOOD. WILL GO NEAR PRVS FCST TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
BUILD INTO AREA. THIS WILL KEEP STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL                   
INCREASE SOME BUT THE BIG WARM UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LATER                
PERIODS.                                                                        
LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
THE MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE QUICK WARM UP.             
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY 850 MB                
TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 8C. THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG FLOW FROM THE             
SOUTH. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG WAA TEMPS              
WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO                 
INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. A BIG CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL ALLOW               
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH INDIANA. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND               
DRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL                
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE OVER THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH OVER THE                
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPS WILL               
OCCUR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                              
$$                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAIN                   
CONCERN WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RUC HAS A FAIRLY STRONG S/W THAT WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                
POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET THE THUNDERSTORMS               
SHOULD DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT PRECIP WATER DROPS TO AROUND .50 INCH.              
LIFTED INDEXES INCREASE TO AROUND +3. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN              
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE THIS WILL CONFIRM THAT THE TSTMS                
SHOULD DECREASE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EITHER NEAR PRVS MODEL RUNS OR                
SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF              
GOOD. WILL GO NEAR PRVS FCST TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
BUILD INTO AREA. THIS WILL KEEP STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL                   
INCREASE SOME BUT THE BIG WARM UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE LATER                
PERIODS.                                                                        
$$                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                
THE MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE QUICK WARM UP.             
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY 850 MB                
TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 8C. THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG FLOW FROM THE             
SOUTH. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG WAA TEMPS              
WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO                 
INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. A BIG CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL ALLOW               
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH INDIANA. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND               
DRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL                
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE OVER THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH OVER THE                
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPS WILL               
OCCUR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                              
$$                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAFS                                         
EXPECT CU FIELD TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z OR SO AS            
AN UPPER WAVE DIVES SE FM IA. LOOKS VFR CIGS AROUND BKN040 WITH                 
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF NO CIGS. SAME UPPER WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH               
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SWRN IN TO GENERATE SCT TSRA. WILL                
INCLUDE A VCTS AT BMG AND HUF WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO AXIS OF                      
INSTABILITY...AND WHERE SCT SHRA WERE ALREADY BUILDING. AT LAF AND              
IND WILL INCLUDE A CB MENTION AS SAID WAVE MAY GENERATE ISOLD                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
CU/SHRA WILL DISSIPATE AFT 00Z OR SO. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING AND SOME RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE THAT MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP              
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFT 10Z OR SO. FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT ON WED               
WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED THRU 18Z.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
AVIATION...CS                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
300 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING                     
INCREASING HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD            
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SWEEP                  
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE            
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...                                                        
18Z RUC 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE              
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA. RUC                    
FORECAST/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS PRECIP EXITING THE CWFA BY 21Z.                 
ATMOSPHERE THEN TO REMAIN CAPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A                
STRONG LLJ ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON BRISK SURFACE WINDS.               
...08...                                                                        
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY. 200 METER HEIGHT                 
FALLS AT 500 MB IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SHOWING THE STRENGTH OF               
THIS SYSTEM. SPC CONTINUES WITH AT LEAST MODERATE RISK OVER ALL OF              
OUR CWA. VERY INTENSE SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE (NAM 976 MB/GFS 981 MB)              
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.               
WIND FIELD INCREDIBLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850 MB WINDS                   
CRANKING TO 50-70 KTS AND 500 MB WIND OF 95 KT BY 00Z FRI. FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH                 
WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE...SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL...WITH                   
BIGGEST THREAT BEING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE OF POTENTIALLY 60-80+               
MPH WINDS IN THE FORM OF A SERIAL DERECHO. BUT DUE TO THE INTENSE               
WIND FIELD...INITIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES                  
SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THEN QUICKLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE. IF LOCAL               
WINDS CAN BACK SOMEWHAT OR STORM CAN FORM ON SOME BOUNDARY...A                  
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE NOT OUT OF THE                
QUESTION. BUT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN EVENT. FREEZING                
LEVELS/WB ZERO HEIGHT QUITE HIGH WHICH WOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.              
STORMS WILL ALSO BE MOVING VERY FAST AT 50+ MPH. 700 MB TEMP ABOUT              
+14 SO CAP SHOULD HOLD SUPPRESSING CONVECTION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON               
WHEN MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES BREAKING THE CAP. WE EXPECT                  
EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WRN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON              
ONCE CAP BREAKS...WITH SEVERE TSTMS SPREADING EWD...AND POTENTIAL               
FOR SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE             
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 2 PM TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN OUR CWA.             
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOT A PROBLEM WITH CAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND                  
SHOWALTERS OF AT LEAST -5. THIS EVENT SIMILAR TO 06/18/1998 WHICH               
HAD STRONG DYNAMICS AND PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...BUT THIS              
UPCOMING EVENT MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICALLY. WILL KEEP MAX TMPS AROUND             
90 FOR THURSDAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR GRADIENT WIND              
OF 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN            
EFFECT 9 AM - 4 PM FOR ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY.                                     
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
COOLER AND DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO             
THE REGION. RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVING               
CHANCES FOR TSTMS. HEIGHTS BUILD EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH MAX                
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CURRENT PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS DUE TO A ZONE OF            
STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE.              
PRECIP TO EXIT THE CWFA BY 21Z WITH THE REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS A            
FEW HOURS LATER. REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE QUIET WITH VFR WX AND               
ONLY A CI/CS DECK. MAY OR MAY NOT SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP.            
ALTHOUGH NOT IN TAFS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LLWS                     
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS AN IMPRESSIVE LLJ OF GREATER THAN 50                
KNOTS DEVELOPS. LLWS MAY CONTINUE INTO MID-MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE              
MIXING OCCURS AND SUSTAINED SFC WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY TO OVER 20               
KNOTS. STRONG TO INTENSE CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.                
...08...                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR                           
BENTON-BUCHANAN-     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY            
IA-IOWA-                                                                        
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-                         
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.                                           
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-           
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-                    
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.                            
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/HAASE                                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1015 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR               
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS REGION IS REALLY DECOUPLING AND              
WE DO NOT SEE FORSEE THE LOW LEVEL JET PLAYING MUCH OF AN                       
INFLUENCE ON THE WIND SPEEDS...DUE TO A STRONGER INVERSION IN                   
PLACE.                                                                          
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL BE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WANT TO              
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE WINDS DO. THINKING OF NIXING THE HIGH WIND                
WARNING IF WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT MORE AT RUSSELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP                
WIND ADVISORY GOING EVERYWHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MAY              
BE ABLE TO DROP PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF I-135 OUT OF ADVISORY              
TOWARD 09Z/4AM...AS WINDS SLACKEN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.                 
WILL WAIT AND SEE.                                                              
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS DRYLINE               
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK EXTREMELY STOUT CAP.                
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY                       
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT AND                    
DECENT MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                     
HOWEVER...CAP WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...SO NOT ANTICIPATING                    
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. IF ANYTHING CAN GET GOING THOUGH...SHEAR AND               
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD MIXED LAYER WHICH IS                  
PROVIDING GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS            
A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF            
THE FORECAST SITES EXCEPT FOR CHANUTE WHERE WE MENTIONED 25-30KTS.              
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM TONIGHT...DUE TO            
SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REACH A HUTCHINSON TO                 
SALINA LINE BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT WILL ONLY SHIFT THE WIND TO THE                
SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS             
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS              
SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.                    
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE WINDS...CONVECTIVE              
AND SEVERE CHANCES.                                                             
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OVER WYOMING WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EAST AFFECTING KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SPEEDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.  A                   
DRYLINE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                         
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT               
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER.  OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AT 850 MB TO AN                     
INCREDIBLE /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ 70-75 KNOTS.  NAM-WRF/RUC/WSWRF              
ALL SHOW INSTABILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE              
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  ADMITTEDLY THERE MAY BE A              
FEW HOURS WHERE WE DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE OVERALL             
SENTIMENT IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND THAT WILL BE THE MESSAGE.            
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRONG                 
MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.            
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE GOING TO REMAIN A DIFFICULT TASK            
TO DEAL WITH.  THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF DO             
AGREE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT             
THE CAP AND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  RUC              
AND ICT-WRF-ARW16KM DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF.  AGAIN                       
THOUGH...CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.                                     
THAT SAID...THE CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALONG THE DRY LINE               
FOR IT TO SURVIVE.  STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT ARE NEARLY                 
PARALLEL TO THE 6KM WIND VECTOR HAVE PRECLUDED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE DRY                      
LINE...WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE AND BACK SOMEWHAT LOCALLY.                      
THUS...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE                   
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GOING                  
FORECAST HAS.  WILL KEEP THAT INTACT.                                           
THURSDAY THE DRY LINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND BE IN A LESSER CAPPED            
ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAY             
BE GOING EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS                
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES             
/AND THE CAP WEAKENS/.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING THE              
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  WITH            
0-6KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS...SHOULD BE A STRONG SUPERCELL DAY.              
0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR            
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS /SIG TORS/ RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND             
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY.                                              
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND LESS                 
ACTIVE.                                                                         
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS              
SATURDAY.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS NOTED            
IN THE 315K LAYER...SUGGESTING A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS TO             
DEVELOP.  THIS AXIS RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPAGATES                  
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER                    
PROBABILITIES OF .1 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENT                 
FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED               
DUE TO CONSISTENCY THRESHOLDS...BUT THINK HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS A HIGHER               
CHANCE IN REALITY.                                                              
MOREOVER...THE LEE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE              
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT              
WOULD BE THAT WE ARE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL            
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES /BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING CAP/ BUT            
AN INCREASING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.  HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE            
FORECAST DATABASE.                                                              
COOK                                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT               
ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INCREASE SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
TOWARD MORNING. CAP IS STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS               
AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE               
TO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY...GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER                        
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT KCNU TO BE PERHAPS MORE GUSTY                
THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY.                                                         
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    70  90  59  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      68  88  54  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          69  88  54  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        70  89  56  77 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  91  62  78 /  10  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         63  84  47  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      63  86  49  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          67  87  52  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       68  88  53  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  89  63  79 /  10  40  40  10                                
CHANUTE         73  88  58  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
IOLA            73  88  57  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  88  60  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-                   
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
801 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL BE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WANT TO              
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE WINDS DO. THINKING OF NIXING THE HIGH WIND                
WARNING IF WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT MORE AT RUSSELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP                
WIND ADVISORY GOING EVERYWHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MAY              
BE ABLE TO DROP PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF I-135 OUT OF ADVISORY              
TOWARD 09Z/4AM...AS WINDS SLACKEN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.                 
WILL WAIT AND SEE.                                                              
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS DRYLINE               
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK EXTREMELY STOUT CAP.                
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY                       
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT AND                    
DECENT MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                     
HOWEVER...CAP WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...SO NOT ANTICIPATING                    
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. IF ANYTHING CAN GET GOING THOUGH...SHEAR AND               
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD MIXED LAYER WHICH IS                  
PROVIDING GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS            
A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF            
THE FORECAST SITES EXCEPT FOR CHANUTE WHERE WE MENTIONED 25-30KTS.              
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM TONIGHT...DUE TO            
SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REACH A HUTCHINSON TO                 
SALINA LINE BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT WILL ONLY SHIFT THE WIND TO THE                
SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS             
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS              
SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.                    
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE WINDS...CONVECTIVE              
AND SEVERE CHANCES.                                                             
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OVER WYOMING WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EAST AFFECTING KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SPEEDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.  A                   
DRYLINE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                         
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT               
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER.  OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AT 850 MB TO AN                     
INCREDIBLE /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ 70-75 KNOTS.  NAM-WRF/RUC/WSWRF              
ALL SHOW INSTABILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE              
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  ADMITTEDLY THERE MAY BE A              
FEW HOURS WHERE WE DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE OVERALL             
SENTIMENT IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND THAT WILL BE THE MESSAGE.            
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRONG                 
MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.            
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE GOING TO REMAIN A DIFFICULT TASK            
TO DEAL WITH.  THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF DO             
AGREE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT             
THE CAP AND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  RUC              
AND ICT-WRF-ARW16KM DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF.  AGAIN                       
THOUGH...CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.                                     
THAT SAID...THE CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALONG THE DRY LINE               
FOR IT TO SURVIVE.  STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT ARE NEARLY                 
PARALLEL TO THE 6KM WIND VECTOR HAVE PRECLUDED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE DRY                      
LINE...WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE AND BACK SOMEWHAT LOCALLY.                      
THUS...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE                   
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GOING                  
FORECAST HAS.  WILL KEEP THAT INTACT.                                           
THURSDAY THE DRY LINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND BE IN A LESSER CAPPED            
ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAY             
BE GOING EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS                
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES             
/AND THE CAP WEAKENS/.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING THE              
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  WITH            
0-6KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS...SHOULD BE A STRONG SUPERCELL DAY.              
0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR            
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS /SIG TORS/ RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND             
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY.                                              
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND LESS                 
ACTIVE.                                                                         
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS              
SATURDAY.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS NOTED            
IN THE 315K LAYER...SUGGESTING A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS TO             
DEVELOP.  THIS AXIS RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPAGATES                  
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER                    
PROBABILITIES OF .1 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENT                 
FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED               
DUE TO CONSISTENCY THRESHOLDS...BUT THINK HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS A HIGHER               
CHANCE IN REALITY.                                                              
MOREOVER...THE LEE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE              
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT              
WOULD BE THAT WE ARE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL            
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES /BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING CAP/ BUT            
AN INCREASING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.  HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE            
FORECAST DATABASE.                                                              
COOK                                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT               
ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INCREASE SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
TOWARD MORNING. CAP IS STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS               
AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE               
TO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY...GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER                        
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT KCNU TO BE PERHAPS MORE GUSTY                
THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY.                                                         
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  59  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  88  54  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          67  88  54  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        70  89  56  77 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  91  62  78 /  10  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         61  84  47  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      61  86  49  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          67  87  52  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       68  88  53  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  89  63  79 /  10  40  40  10                                
CHANUTE         73  88  58  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
IOLA            73  88  57  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  88  60  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-               
098>100.                                                                        
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-               
067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                    
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
605 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD MIXED LAYER WHICH IS                  
PROVIDING GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS            
A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF            
THE FORECAST SITES EXCEPT FOR CHANUTE WHERE WE MENTIONED 25-30KTS.              
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM TONIGHT...DUE TO            
SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REACH A HUTCHINSON TO                 
SALINA LINE BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT WILL ONLY SHIFT THE WIND TO THE                
SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS             
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS              
SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE WINDS...CONVECTIVE              
AND SEVERE CHANCES.                                                             
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OVER WYOMING WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EAST AFFECTING KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SPEEDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.  A                   
DRYLINE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                         
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT               
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER.  OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AT 850 MB TO AN                     
INCREDIBLE /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ 70-75 KNOTS.  NAM-WRF/RUC/WSWRF              
ALL SHOW INSTABILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE              
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  ADMITTEDLY THERE MAY BE A              
FEW HOURS WHERE WE DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE OVERALL             
SENTIMENT IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND THAT WILL BE THE MESSAGE.            
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRONG                 
MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.            
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE GOING TO REMAIN A DIFFICULT TASK            
TO DEAL WITH.  THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF DO             
AGREE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT             
THE CAP AND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  RUC              
AND ICT-WRF-ARW16KM DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF.  AGAIN                       
THOUGH...CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.                                     
THAT SAID...THE CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALONG THE DRY LINE               
FOR IT TO SURVIVE.  STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT ARE NEARLY                 
PARALLEL TO THE 6KM WIND VECTOR HAVE PRECLUDED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE DRY                      
LINE...WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE AND BACK SOMEWHAT LOCALLY.                      
THUS...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE                   
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GOING                  
FORECAST HAS.  WILL KEEP THAT INTACT.                                           
THURSDAY THE DRY LINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND BE IN A LESSER CAPPED            
ENVIRONMENT.  INFACT...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAY              
BE GOING EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS                
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES             
/AND THE CAP WEAKENS/.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING THE              
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  WITH            
0-6KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS...SHOULD BE A STRONG SUPERCELL DAY.              
0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR            
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS /SIG TORS/ RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND             
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY.                                              
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND LESS                 
ACTIVE.                                                                         
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS              
SATURDAY.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS NOTED            
IN THE 315K LAYER...SUGGESTING A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS TO             
DEVELOP.  THIS AXIS RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPAGATES                  
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER                    
PROBABILITIES OF .1 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENT                 
FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED               
DUE TO CONSISTENCY THRESHOLDS...BUT THINK HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS A HIGHER               
CHANCE IN REALITY.                                                              
MOREOVER...THE LEE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE              
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT              
WOULD BE THAT WE ARE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL            
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES /BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING CAP/ BUT            
AN INCREASING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.  HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE            
FORECAST DATABASE.                                                              
COOK                                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT               
ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INCREASE SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
TOWARD MORNING. CAP IS STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS               
AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE               
TO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY...GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER                        
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT KCNU TO BE PERHAPS MORE GUSTY                
THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY.                                                         
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  59  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  88  54  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          67  88  54  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        70  89  56  77 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  91  62  78 /  10  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         61  84  47  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      61  86  49  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          67  87  52  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       68  88  53  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  89  63  79 /  10  40  40  10                                
CHANUTE         73  88  58  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
IOLA            73  88  57  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  88  60  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-               
098>100.                                                                        
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-               
067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                    
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
403 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE             
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                             
TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH             
AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT.  HIGH WIND WARNING                  
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT WHILE WIND                 
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
AT THIS TIME BOTH WIND HAZARDS EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS SOMETHING OF A LOW            
LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE A                 
COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT MAY PROMPT THE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY            
AND EVEN THE HIGH WIND WARNING PAST 10 PM.  THE FIRST PROBLEM IS HOW            
LOW THE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER                    
NORTHWESTERN NE.  THE RUC IS FORECASTING A 970 MB LOW...THE NAM                 
BRINGS THE LOW DOWN TO ABOUT 976 MB WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE             
LOW AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF 981 MB.  THE NAM AND RUC...POSSIBLY              
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW...DEVELOP A 70 TO 80 KT LOW               
LEVEL JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THE GFS IS MORE                      
CONSERVATIVE AND BRINGS A 60 TO 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE                 
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE THE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF               
THE LLJ BETTER THIS SPRING WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN OVERDOING THINGS              
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AND                
WARNING AT 10 PM.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT ROLE THE LOW LEVEL                    
INVERSION PLAYS ON SURFACE WINDS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE CONTINUING                 
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS THIS EVENING.  IN TERMS OF CONVECTION                   
OVERNIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE DRYLINE TO             
MOVE THROUGH TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP            
AS A VERY STRONG INVERSION SITS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE.  SURFACE             
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AT THIS TIME...SO FEEL DEEPER                
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE IN FRONT OF THE DRYLINE TO HAVE                     
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE             
CWA OVERNIGHT.  HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH                 
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS                
VERY STRONG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT             
THIS TIME.  IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS IT WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE AS             
WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS PRETTY EXTREME FOR JUNE...WITH 60 KTS OF 0-6              
KM SHEAR IN PLACE ALONG THE DRYLINE.                                            
TOMORROW...AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MODELS ARE            
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH IN FRONT OF              
THE DRYLINE.  ASSUMING THIS SOLUTION IS VALID HAVE UPPED                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND                
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TOMORROW.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TRANSPORT OF            
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ON THE POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO ERODE            
THE CAP AT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  AS            
THE CAP ERODES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES ITS QUALITY GENERAL              
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN FRONT OF THE DRYLINE.  WITH SUFFICIENT             
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AIR COULD LIFT ABOVE ANY REMAINING CAP            
AND ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  ONCE AGAIN IF                       
THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THE POSSIBILITY               
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HIGH AS 0-6 KM                 
SHEAR REMAINS AT 60 KTS OR ABOVE.  ASSUMING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
RETURN SBCAPE VALUES TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND              
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG               
RANGE.  WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE                  
DRYLINE DO NOT FEEL A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY               
TOMORROW...BUT WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION             
AND DETERMINE THE NEED OF A CONTINUED WIND ADVISORY.                            
MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRY              
LINE BY 00Z. CURRENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 BY 00Z            
FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND                
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE             
EVENING. DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING                
HOURS BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING DEW POINT             
GRADIENT TO REFLECT DRY LINE PLACEMENT SOUTH OF I-35.                           
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT             
INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS. RETURN FLOW ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING THE FRONT AND MOISTURE              
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A            
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING             
AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO NEAR THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY LATE                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA              
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT            
FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                          
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE              
MAINLY A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND            
THEN TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY 00Z TUESDAY.                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH               
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION              
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE SMALL WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.              
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN             
EASTERN KANSAS ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING CAP MAY INHIBIT STORMS.                   
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE 70S TEMPERATURES WILL WARM                
BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY THEN NEAR 90 ON WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS RELATE TO WINDS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.  WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG                 
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (AROUND 30 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE             
WINDS) WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  IF A STRONG                
INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE              
ADDED TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES.  AFTER SUNRISE A DRYLINE MOVING WEST             
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH KMHK SITE.  THIS WILL BRING ABOUT             
A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT WINDS AROUND               
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST.  IN KTOP AND KFOE THE DRYLINE WAS                   
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER THE CURRENT 18Z FORECAST WINDOW...BUT            
MAY MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME.  LOW CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER KTOP AND KFOE DURING THE LATE MORNING             
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO                  
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE                
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM                
TONIGHT FOR A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS                                      
KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035.                                                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL                
KANSAS KSZ010>012-KSZ022>024-KSZ026-KSZ036>040-KSZ054>056-KSZ058>059.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
248 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/CHANCE OF                         
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...WINDS THURSDAY...HOW COOL TO             
GO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF              
THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN               
CONTINUING. THE FLOW HAS DEAMPLIFIED OVER THE PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS            
NOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. NORTHERN END OF WESTERN RIDGE HAS BEEN                
CUTOFF WITH VERY STRONG SYSTEM NOW DIGGING/MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN           
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH ADDITION SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN THE             
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA IS MOVING               
TOWARD THE WEST.                                                                
AT JET LEVEL...INITIALLY THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE OUT OF POSITION WITH           
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET THAT IS ROUNDING THE BASE AND EAST SIDE OF            
STRONG INCOMING UPPER SYSTEM. IN WESTERN COLORADO...THE MODELS ARE              
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST WITH THE JET AXIS. AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE                  
SHOWING THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON INCOMING SYSTEM. GOING BY            
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER.                       
AT LOW LEVELS...ON TEMPERATURES THE MODELS HAD THE COLD FRONT/AIR TOO           
FAR SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. THEY DID FINE WITH            
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE UKMET WAS DOING THE BEST           
WITH THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT IN LINE. WILL AGAIN BE GOING WITH A BLEND               
OF THE MODELS. WILL BE GOING WITH THE DRIER MODELS AND WINDIER                  
MODELS. WILL ALSO TEND TO GO WARM.                                              
TONIGHT...FIRST PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS. ALMOST THE ENTIRE                    
FORECAST AREA HAS REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW                    
LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE                
STARTED TO REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL              
TO WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT. LAPSE RATES IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AND               
GO TO A SUBSTANTIAL DEPTH. PROFILERS ARE STARTING TO GET CLOSE TO               
50 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AS WELL. RUC IS CATCHING THIS THE BEST            
RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL BE GO TIL 03Z. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT MAY             
NEED TO EXTEND IT FOR LATER ON TONIGHT. NEAR 06Z...THE GRADIENT                 
REMAINS TIGHT AND THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES GO ABOVE 5 MB. ALSO                 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                    
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THESE WINDS WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING                 
CRITERIA...AND MAY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO IT IS AN UNFAVORABLE             
TIME OF NIGHT FOR STRONG WINDS TO SET IN. IT WOULD ALSO BE                      
CONFUSING TO THE PUBLIC TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AFTER THE HIGH WIND            
WARNING. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND MONITOR              
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHAT TO DO NEAR 03Z. MAY PUT IN SOME BLOWING DUST.            
NEXT WILL BE IF/WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT. DRY LINE HAS MADE           
IT PASSED MCCOOK. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY MID            
LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MODELS KEEP MAIN JET TO THE                   
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z AND THEN PUT THE RIGHT REAR                   
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THE            
TIME...THE VERY DRY HAS THROUGH MIDE LEVELS HAS BECOME WELL                     
ENTRENCHED. WILL KEEPT CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OR TRIM IT BACK A                  
LITTLE TO THE EAST.                                                             
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...THE COLD                
FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE TIMING              
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND MODEL                  
GUIDANCE IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                     
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT IS MARGINAL.                     
CONSIDERING THAT AND NOT WANTING TO CONFUSE THE PUBLIC WITH AN                  
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY...WILL MAKE THE FORECAST AS WINDY AS POSSIBLE...            
AND LET THE NIGHT SHIFT CONSIDER IF AN ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED.             
CONSIDERING THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...               
WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS/WARMING AHEAD OF IT. GUIDANCE HAS WARMED              
SOME...AND BELIEVE TO REASONABLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD               
COVER WILL BE AROUND. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX                  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.                        
A COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS WINDS DIE OFF RAPIDLY AS SURFACE               
RIDGE MOVES. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOW. SO MINS WELL INTO THE 40S              
LOOKS REASONABLE.                                                               
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY            
IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY             
FROM THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST AND              
COOLEST EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE             
EVENING HOURS NOT LOOKING GOOD. WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE NOT               
ONLY LOW LEVELS BUT ALOFT AND LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS THAN INDICATED              
YESTERDAY. DURING THE DAY...MOST OF THE AREA IS IN JET SUBSIDENCE               
FROM A FURTHER SOUTH UPPER JET THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE           
SOUTHERN THIRD/HALF IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT...AND THEN IT PULLS           
A LITTLE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. NIGHT SHIFT TOOK OUT THE CHANCES...            
AND THAT LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP DRY.                                          
SATURDAY...SATURDAY FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGHINESS HANGS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.              
ALSO LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE HANGS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS FRONT FURTHER                
NORTHWEST THAN BEFORE. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT.             
ALSO WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE FURTHER                
WEST WITH TIME AS WELL. SO VERY HARD TO PIN DETAILS DOWN THAT FAR OUT           
IN THIS SCENARIO. SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST             
DURING THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE FRONTAL POSITION...GUIDANCE                    
TEMPERATURES WARMED UP AND ALSO WARMED UP MAXES AS WELL.                        
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SAME SCENARIO IN PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD AS ON            
DAYS 4 AND 5. SO FOLLOWED THE SAME TREND ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES               
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH             
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP            
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT BOTH GLD AND MCK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL             
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KTS AROUND 06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL                
ALSO APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THUR...RESULTING IN WINDS TO VEER MORE             
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF TAF FCST. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP               
AGAIN THU DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AS                
SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOME SKC AROUND 15Z THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR              
     KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042.                                        
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004.                 
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR              
     NEZ079-080.                                                                
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.                     
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER/CLK                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
311 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE WINDS...CONVECTIVE              
AND SEVERE CHANCES.                                                             
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OVER WYOMING WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EAST AFFECTING KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SPEEDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.  A                   
DRYLINE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                         
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT               
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER.  OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AT 850 MB TO AN                     
INCREDIBLE /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ 70-75 KNOTS.  NAM-WRF/RUC/WSWRF              
ALL SHOW INSTABILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE              
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  ADMITTEDLY THERE MAY BE A              
FEW HOURS WHERE WE DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE OVERALL             
SENTIMENT IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND THAT WILL BE THE MESSAGE.            
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRONG                 
MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.            
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE GOING TO REMAIN A DIFFICULT TASK            
TO DEAL WITH.  THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF DO             
AGREE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT             
THE CAP AND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  RUC              
AND ICT-WRF-ARW16KM DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF.  AGAIN                       
THOUGH...CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.                                     
THAT SAID...THE CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALONG THE DRY LINE               
FOR IT TO SURVIVE.  STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT ARE NEARLY                 
PARALLEL TO THE 6KM WIND VECTOR HAVE PRECLUDED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE DRY                      
LINE...WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE AND BACK SOMEWHAT LOCALLY.                      
THUS...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE                   
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GOING                  
FORECAST HAS.  WILL KEEP THAT INTACT.                                           
THURSDAY THE DRY LINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND BE IN A LESSER CAPPED            
ENVIRONMENT.  INFACT...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAY              
BE GOING EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS                
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES             
/AND THE CAP WEAKENS/.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING THE              
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  WITH            
0-6KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS...SHOULD BE A STRONG SUPERCELL DAY.              
0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR            
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS /SIG TORS/ RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND             
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY.                                              
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND LESS                 
ACTIVE.                                                                         
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS              
SATURDAY.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS NOTED            
IN THE 315K LAYER...SUGGESTING A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS TO             
DEVELOP.  THIS AXIS RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPAGATES                  
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER                    
PROBABILITIES OF .1 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENT                 
FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED               
DUE TO CONSISTENCY THRESHOLDS...BUT THINK HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS A HIGHER               
CHANCE IN REALITY.                                                              
MOREOVER...THE LEE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE              
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT              
WOULD BE THAT WE ARE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL            
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES /BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING CAP/ BUT            
AN INCREASING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.  HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE            
FORECAST DATABASE.                                                              
COOK                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT               
ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INCREASE SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
TOWARD MORNING. CAP IS STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS               
AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE               
TO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY...GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER                        
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT KCNU TO BE PERHAPS MORE GUSTY                
THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY.                                                         
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    89  70  90  57 /  10  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      90  68  88  55 /  10  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          88  70  88  56 /  10  10  10  10                                
ELDORADO        88  70  89  58 /  10  10  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  71  90  60 /  10  10  20  10                                
RUSSELL         92  61  84  52 /  10  20  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      92  62  86  53 /  10  20  10  10                                
SALINA          90  68  87  54 /  10  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       89  69  88  55 /  10  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  72  88  63 /  10  10  30  40                                
CHANUTE         86  72  86  63 /  10  10  40  40                                
IOLA            86  72  86  62 /  10  10  40  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    87  72  87  62 /  10  10  30  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-                      
093>096-098>100.                                                                
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-               
067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                   
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
701 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...                  
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE                
WEST. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST                
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.               
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...AND                 
TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL              
STALL OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS AN AREA OF                 
LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PIVOTING                      
THROUGH ERN OH AND ERN KY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE FAMILIAR PRE-              
FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ETABLISHED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN E...AIDED BY               
THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.                    
FCST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THIS EVENING...MUCH LIKE                 
YESTERDAY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITH THE RISK/COVERAGE OF                        
CONVECTION. LATEST RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST FAVORABLE                   
COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ELEMENTS SETTING UP OVER               
OUR SC-SE ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BASICALLY FROM               
AROUND EMPORIA TO WILLIAMSBURG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS REGION IS              
WHERE THE BEST PRE-FRONTAL LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (AXIS OF MAX               
THETA-E) IS EXPECTED. DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY DECENT FOR EARLY JUNE IN              
THE MID ATLC REGION...PROGGED BY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO BE                
EVEN BETTER THAN YDAY WHEN STORMED DEVELOPED. FORCING FROM THE                  
UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH (INCREASED LOW-MID LEVEL                          
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RRQ) DEVELOPS OVER                 
THE SRN/CENTRAL ZONES LATE TODAY THEN LIFTS N-E OVERNIGHT AS THE                
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS.                                                  
FROM A THERMODYNAMIC STANDPOINT...AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
MOST FVRBL OVER THE S/SERN ZONES. SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2500               
J/KG ARE PROGGED WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S.                 
MID LEVEL WINDS ALIGNED FROM THE WSW AVERAGE BTWN 30-40 KTS                     
PROVIDES A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE...EVEN BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...                 
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINE STORMS OF WHICH A FEW MAY             
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST AND HAIL               
IS AGAIN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE AT MID LEVELS (ABOVE 700               
MB)...AS THETA-E LAPSE RATES BTWN 0-3KM AND 3-6KM EXCEED 20C. HAVE              
KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN ZONES...AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE                
BEST LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS                
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                  
700/500 MB TROUGH AXIS/VORT LOBE PIVOTS E OFF THE MID ATLC COAST                
DURING THE AFTN. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE                
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ESP OVER ERN ZONES. FORCING                   
OCCURS WELL BEFORE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE                
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AT MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE                 
MAIN STORY TOMORROW...WITH SHALLOW YET NOTICEABLE LLVL COOLING                  
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE                
MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS. BLEND OF MAV (GFS) AND MET (NAM) GUIDANCE              
YIELDS MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE LOWER ERN SHORE (MAYBE LOWER 70S                 
RIGHT ALONG THE ATLC COAST)...WITH GENERALLY 80-85 ELSEWHERE                    
ACROSS VA/NC AREAS.                                                             
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WED NIGHT...PERHAPS THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE...               
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S OVER MOST LOCALES OUTSIDE OF SERN VA                 
AND NERN NC. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MID/UPPER 40S EITHER IN SPOTS                
WHERE RADITIONAL COOLING IS MOST FVRBL (INCLUDING SBY).                         
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR A                
RETURN TOWARD S/SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOWER                     
LEVELS. BASED ON THE LLVL THERMAL/THICKNESS PROFILES...EXPECT HIGH              
TEMPS THURSDAY TO BE AROUND 5-7F WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS                 
WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. 850 MB TEMPS                
CLIMB TO AROUND 20C ON FRIDAY...THUS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S              
STILL A GOOD BET. ALSO...WITH THIS DEGREE OF HEAT ALONG WITH THE                
PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT PER THE GFS AND ECMWF...AM                   
MORE CONFIDENT TO BOOST POPS TO AROUND 30% FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE              
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE                   
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT...                  
IT NOW DOES NOT APPEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP IN OUR FCST               
AREA THROUGH SUN. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...FOR NOW HAVE                    
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF (AND HPC GUIDANCE) GIVEN THE LESS                  
DRASTIC TRENDS PER THE ECMWF. WITH THAT SAID I HAVE ADVERTISED A                
SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND (COOLER SAT...EVEN MORE                   
COOLER SUN)...WITH LINGERING POPS ON SAT (HIGHEST IN THE SERN                   
ZONES) AS THE FRONT DROPS S OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY EARLY SUN                    
MORNING. TEMPS REBOUND A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH                
PUSHES OFFSHORE...THOUGH READINGS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS                 
(80S).                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WILL CONT THE GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS THRU 00Z PER CRNT OBS. OTW...                
VFR CONDS INTO TNGT...ALTHO ISLTD MVFR CONDS IN ANY SHRA OR TSRA                
THIS EVENG INTO TNGT. FRNTL BNDRY LATER TNGT AND WED MORNG CUD                  
PRODUCE LWR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY SHRAS OR TSRAS. THEN...GENERALLY              
VFR CONDS FOR LATER WED THRU FRI...AS HI PRES BLDS IN THEN OFFSHR.              
ANOTHER FRNT CUD BRING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN IN SHRAS OR TSRAS               
FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WNDS (AND GUSTS) HAVE DMNSHD TO BLO SCA ERLY THIS EVE. SO UPDATED               
CWF TO ALLOW SCA HEADLINES TO EXPIRE. CDFRNT PASSAGE N-S AFTR                   
MIDNITE. WNDS BECOME N BEHIND BNDRY...BUT DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ABT A              
3-4 HR SURGE PRD AT SPEEDS OF ARND 15 KTS. NO SCA PLANNED FOR                   
LATER TONITE...BUT CUD NOT RULE OUT A GUST OR TWO TO ARND 20KT                  
ACROSS CHES BAY. OTW..NO FLAGS XPCTD AS WNDS SLOWLY BECOME SW BY                
MID WEEK AS H5 RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. ANTHR FRNT XPCTD BY ERLY              
SAT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WFA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...BKH                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS            
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...WHILE HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST. THE                 
HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A                
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...AND                   
TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL              
STALL OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS AN AREA OF                 
LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PIVOTING                      
THROUGH OH AND NRN KY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE FAMILIAR PRE-                  
FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ETABLISHED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN E...AIDED BY               
THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.                    
FCST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AND INTO THIS EVENING...MUCH LIKE                
YESTERDAY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITH THE RISK/COVERAGE OF                        
CONVECTION. LATEST RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST FAVORABLE                   
COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ELEMENTS SETTING UP OVER               
OUR SC-SE ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BASICALLY FROM               
AROUND EMPORIA TO WILLIAMSBURG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS REGION IS              
WHERE THE BEST PRE-FRONTAL LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (AXIS OF MAX               
THETA-E) IS EXPECTED. DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY DECENT FOR EARLY JUNE                 
IN THE MID ATLC REGION...PROGGED BY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO                
BE EVEN BETTER THAN YDAY WHEN STORMED DEVELOPED. FORCING FROM THE               
UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH (INCREASED LOW-MID LEVEL                          
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RRQ) DEVELOPS OVER                 
THE SRN/CENTRAL ZONES LATE TODAY THEN LIFTS N-E OVERNIGHT AS THE                
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS.                                                  
FROM A THERMODYNAMIC STANDPOINT...AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
MOST FVRBL OVER THE S/SERN ZONES. SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2500               
J/KG ARE PROGGED WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S.                 
MID LEVEL WINDS ALIGNED FROM THE WSW AVERAGE BTWN 30-40 KTS                     
PROVIDES A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE...EVEN BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...                 
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINE STORMS OF WHICH A FEW MAY             
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST AND HAIL               
IS AGAIN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE AT MID LEVELS (ABOVE 700               
MB)...AS THETA-E LAPSE RATES BTWN 0-3KM AND 3-6KM EXCEED 20C. HAVE              
KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN ZONES...AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE                
BEST LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS                
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND ENERGY MVG                  
AROUND ITS BASE MVS INTO THE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK               
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THESE                      
FEATURES ENOUGH TO CALL FOR POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...BUT DUE               
TO LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW. DRY               
AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION WED AFTN/EVNG. TEMPS WED WILL BE THE                 
COOLEST OF THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT WILL QUICKLY                     
REBOUND ON THURS BACK INTO THE UPR 80S TO AROUND 90. ON                         
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE AMPLIFYING                 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS... AND 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO                  
AROUND 20C. MID TO UPPER 90S STILL A GOOD BET FOR FRIDAY.                       
ALSO...WITH THIS DEGREE OF HEAT ALONG WITH THE PROGGED STRENGTH OF              
THE NEXT FRONT PER THE GFS AND ECMWF... AM MORE CONFIDENT TO BOOST              
POPS TO AROUND 30% FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE                   
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT...                  
IT NOW DOES NOT APPEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP IN OUR FCST               
AREA THROUGH SUN. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...FOR NOW HAVE                    
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF (AND HPC GUIDANCE) GIVEN THE LESS                  
DRASTIC TRENDS PER THE ECMWF. WITH THAT SAID I HAVE ADVERTISED A                
SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND (COOLER SAT...EVEN MORE                   
COOLER SUN)...WITH LINGERING POPS ON SAT (HIGHEST IN THE SERN                   
ZONES) AS THE FRONT DROPS S OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY EARLY SUN                    
MORNING. TEMPS REBOUND A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH                
PUSHES OFFSHORE...THOUGH READINGS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS                 
(80S).                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
WILL CONT THE GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS THRU 00Z PER CRNT OBS. OTW...                
VFR CONDS INTO TNGT...ALTHO ISLTD MVFR CONDS IN ANY SHRA OR TSRA                
THIS EVENG INTO TNGT. FRNTL BNDRY LATER TNGT AND WED MORNG CUD                  
PRODUCE LWR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY SHRAS OR TSRAS. THEN...GENERALLY              
VFR CONDS FOR LATER WED THRU FRI...AS HI PRES BLDS IN THEN OFFSHR.              
ANOTHER FRNT CUD BRING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN IN SHRAS OR TSRAS               
FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXTNDD SCA FOR CSTL WTRS THRU 6 PM AND XTNDD FLAGS DOWN TO VA/NC                
BRDR BASED ON GUSTY WNDS OF UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT RANGE.                  
WK CDFNT DROPPING ACRS THE WTRS LT TNGT/ERY WED RESULTS IN                      
WNDSHFT FM WSW TO NE (SHORT PD LLVL N SURGE PSBL). ONSHR WNDS WED               
AFTN/WED NGT/ERY THU BCM SSW THU AFTN...CONTG FRI.                              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WFA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...BKH                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN                 
GREAT LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A VIGOROUS LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS                
APPROACHING MICHIGAN. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM LOW IS            
ALSO APPROACHING MICHIGAN. LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHRA CONTINUES            
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING INTO WRN              
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR. CONVECTION THUSFAR HAS BEEN                   
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW HITS OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE              
SHOWERS AND SOME DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND            
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. 00Z APX SOUNDING TELLS THE TALE...SHOWING A             
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 550 MB. WILL NEED TO             
REARRANGE WX AND POPS GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON             
LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO THE ENTIRE CWA             
THRU 09Z AND THEN CUT BACK POPS TO ONLY NE SECTIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND             
12Z. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 09Z AND                
CHANCE POPS FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THRU THAT TIME...AND THEN                    
DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR NE SECTIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 728 PM                                                       
A CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR                      
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT                 
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF                 
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO ALL TAF SITES...                 
THOUGH PLN AND TVC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WIND SHEAR A BIG CONCERN               
OVERNIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS UNDER STRONG WARM                
ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40 TO 50 KNOTS            
RIGHT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. HENCE WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR ALL TAF               
SITES DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW ALSO EXPECTED AS                    
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING AS WARM                
FRONT LIFTS EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE            
WINDY AS MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY STRONG.                   
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25              
TO 30 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A WARM FRONT EMANATING                
FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...EASTERN IOWA AND                
WESTERN ILLINOIS.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS                
WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE LEADING                
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                
CLOSER TO HOME TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S            
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER) WITH AN                    
ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU FIELD...MOST PREVALENT OVER NE LOWER WITH HELP              
FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.                                         
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER                
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.                           
TONIGHT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH AN ELEVATED            
WARM FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 45-55 KT            
SW-NE LLJ WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING OVER WISCONSIN AND UPPER              
MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE ON THE                
NOSE OF THIS LLJ ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT THE            
WIDTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHWEST LOWER              
AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH MORE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING                      
DEVELOPING OVER NE LOWER THAT COULD PRODUCE SCT ACTIVITY.  EXPECT               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE NE WITH THE                 
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EASTERN UPPER LOOKS IN A FAVORABLE             
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  AS FOR SEVERE                           
POTENTIAL...STRONG 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WITH 850MB WINDS                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF               
50-60KTS SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ORGANIZATION              
THAT COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ON THE OTHERHAND...ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER               
REACHING A MAX AROUND 500 J/KG AROUND 09Z...WHILE ONLY AROUND 200               
J/KG AT PLN AND TVC.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE              
FROM 10KFT AT 00Z TO 14.5KFT BY 12Z WITH THE WAA.  IF ROTATION CAN              
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN UPDRAFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED                 
STORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN             
UPPER.                                                                          
TOMORROW...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA STRONG 50KT LLJ OVER THE             
850MB FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE NE TO START THE MORNING...WHILE             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LAGS BEHIND SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.              
WAS THINKING A THREAT WAS THERE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP JUST                
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK                 
ALONG IT...AND A SIMILAR STORY PLAYED OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE                 
PLAINS WHERE SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING                      
ALOFT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DURING THE MORNING.  AIR                
ALOFT REALLY GETS JUICY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR              
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.  850MB/700MB TEMPS SOAR TO 16-18C/10-12C              
BY THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MIXING...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80F                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR 90 ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF                    
NORTHERN LOWER. DESPITE THE WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS NEAR THE                    
SURFACE...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A DOMINANT CAP BETWEEN                
700-800MB WITH NEARLY 200 J/KG OF SBCIN.  ADDITIONALLY...MAX WINDS              
IN THE MIXING LAYER REACH 50 KTS...WHICH WILL OVERWHELM LAKE BREEZES            
FROM DEVELOPING THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO OVERCOME THE                    
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT                
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING AND WILL               
LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE. COLD FRONT REACHES THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRI...AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE            
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                  
TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SVR             
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE OVERRIDING PROBLEM OF THE DAY.                  
MODELS...GFS STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE UPPER TROF ON             
FRIDAY VERY WELL. IT IS QUITE A BIT FASTER TO MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU            
THE REGION. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING THE              
UPPER TROF OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...IS PREFERRED.                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...IN SHORT...SVR WX/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT               
STILL LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL.                                                        
TO START THE EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL LIE FROM WESTERN WI TO             
EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL CAPPED OVER HERE...BUT COLD ADVECTION AT                 
700MB AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THAT CAP TOWARD              
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL               
NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT            
DECOUPLING...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED AND LIMITING                 
SURFACE TEMP FALLS. A MID 70S OVER LOWER 60S SURFACE PARCEL STILL               
CORRESPONDS TO MLCAPE OF 500-750J/KG. NOT ANYTHING EXTREME...BUT                
RESPECTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.           
THE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE NOT MARGINAL IN THE SLIGHTEST. 850MB              
WINDS 50-60KT...AND 500MB WINDS NEAR 80KT. EVEN WITH LARGELY                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES 60-70KT. WITH DRY               
MID LEVELS UPSTREAM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SERIAL DERECHO.                
STORM EVOLUTION IS A FITFUL THING...SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE                 
FAVORED UPSTREAM...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MULTICELL LINEAR                   
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THAT IS NOT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED                     
(PRIMARILY NON-SUPERCELLULAR) TOR. REMEMBER THAT OUR TORNADO NEAR               
CADILLAC LAST OCTOBER WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...ON A BOWING              
LINE SEGMENT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN            
HAZARD.                                                                         
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR. WILL FINE-TUNE            
TIMING...PARTICULARLY SLOWING ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE EAST. LIKELY             
POPS IN ORDER OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. SVR THREAT                
WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR LAKE MI COAST AROUND                      
MIDNIGHT...AND TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH TIME. WILL DIMINISH POPS                
LATE IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN.              
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN             
THE MORNING...AND BE EAST OF US BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH               
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS                
SMALL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EXTREME SE                
CORNER (SOUTH OF HARRISVILLE) THRU EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WRAPAROUND              
MOISTURE MAY PLAGUE EASTERN UPPER MI...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING               
UPPER TROF...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS              
WILL RANGE FROM 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SE.                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...QUIET WX ON TAP AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY               
GOES THRU EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS               
PERIOD WILL RACE ACROSS CANADA...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.                       
INSTEAD...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE            
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR                      
SKIES...AND A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.            
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
REST OF THE FORECAST...HUDSON BAY LOW...AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN CONUS...WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.               
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WX DRY AND                 
COMFORTABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL              
BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD. PACIFIC ENERGY POUNDING INTO THE WESTERN                
STATES WILL ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE LAKES              
REGION AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A STORMY PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGGED DIRECTLY            
OVERHEAD...OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS SMALL. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED              
FORECAST DRY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.                                
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT)...                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIAL             
OF SVR STORMS LATE THU AFTN/EVENING.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD/DEEP TROF OVER THE            
WRN STATES. 12Z RAOBS SHOW THAT THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR                
EARLY JUNE WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB UPWARDS OF 200M OVER NV.             
12Z RAOBS ALSO SHOW THAT SRLY WINDS HAD ALREADY INCREASED                       
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WITH 850MB               
WINDS AROUND 50KT ACROSS KS/NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AT THE NOSE OF               
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...AN              
ARC OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NRN MN TO SW WI IS SPREADING E AND NE.                    
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER               
THE ROCKIES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA. UNSEASONABLY DEEP SYSTEM FOR             
EARLY JUNE (500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OR 280M BLO              
LONG TERM AVG FOR EARLY JUNE) WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS               
THU. IN RESPONSE...NOSE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT WILL                 
SHIFT E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN ARC OF                   
IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS 850MB WARM                 
FRONT RACES N. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING STRONG THETA-E            
ADVECTION INTO THE SW FCST AREA BY 00Z...AND THEN LIFTING IT N OF               
THE FCST AREA BY 09Z. 850MB WARM FRONT RACES N OF UPPER MI BY                   
06Z...AND THIS SHOULD BASICALLY SIGNAL THE END OF PCPN CHANCES                  
OVERNIGHT AS CAPPED AIRMASS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SO...WILL            
GO WITH HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EVENING (SPREADING W TO E).             
BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW AND THE ERN            
FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE NEARING PEAK AT THE TIME 850MB               
WARM FRONT PASSES THOSE AREAS. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY              
LATE IN THE NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH                     
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA. TRYING TO DETERMINE EFFECTIVE DEEP                 
LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS NOT AN EASY TASK...BUT IT APPEARS            
IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...PROVIDED ELEVATED                   
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH. GFS MUCAPE IS NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED            
J/KG...SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY                     
MORE (UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG). THAT`S TO THE SW OF ITS PCPN AREA WHICH             
MAY BE AN INDICATION OF WHAT COULD BE AVBL FOR THE STORMS. AT THIS              
POINT...WHILE THERE MIGHT BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM (HAIL)...THE OVERALL            
SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TONIGHT WITH HIGHER CAPE DISPLACED WELL              
SW OF EXPECTED PCPN AREA.                                                       
EXPECT CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO DOMINATE THU MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE             
MID AFTN HRS. DEPENDING ON MIXING HEIGHT...IT COULD BE VERY WINDY...            
REQUIRING WIND ADVY OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA AS 40-50KT ARE AVBL              
AS LOW AS 3-5KFT. IF FULL SUN DEVELOPS...WIND ADVY WILL BE A                    
CERTAINTY. SINCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A QUESTION...WILL ONLY            
RAMP WINDS UP TO 20-30MPH IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH              
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE OVER ABOUT THE W                
HALF OF FCST AREA AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WHICH WILL                  
DOMINATE THE E UNDER STRONG SRLY FLOW. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT STILL             
LOOKS LIKE DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS THE CAP WILL ERODE. INHERITED               
FCST LOOKED FINE WITH PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING 21Z OVER THE W HALF OF             
THE FCST AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (IN EXCESS              
OF 60KT) TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT.            
NAM MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500J/KG WHILE GFS IS AROUND                 
1000J/KG.                                                                       
TSRA WILL MARCH E THU NIGHT...AND PCPN SHOULD END WITH PASSAGE OF               
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. -SHRA CHANCES SHOULD RETURN OVER THE W             
LATE AS FAIRLY STRONG SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE               
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE                 
HEADS E FRI MORNING...OPTED TO CARRY LOW CHC POPS E ACROSS THE FCST             
AREA BEFORE TRENDING TO A DRY FCST FRI AFTN FROM W TO E.                        
OTHERWISE...FRI SHOULD BE A BREEZY/COOLER DAY.                                  
SUN THRU WED...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS              
OVER THE LAST 24HRS. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WILL CONTROL THE             
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE               
EXTENDING N SOMEWHERE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY...THE DECISION            
WAS TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OR NEAR ENOUGH TO             
UPPER MI TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY...SIMILAR TO 12Z/05 GFS/ECMWF                
RUNS. WHILE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER             
E WITH RIDGE AXIS...BULK OF GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED                
RIDGE FARTHER W LIKE THE 12Z/05 GFS/ECMWF. THE PLAN TODAY WILL BE TO            
FOLLOW CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND MAINTAIN A DRY REGIME                  
DURING THIS PERIOD. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF                
SOME SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IF RIDGE AXIS IS LESS PRONOUNCED AND                
FARTHER E...BUT CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS MUCH TOO LOW TO PICK A TIME             
FRAME TO INCLUDE BROAD BRUSH CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL                  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL               
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THU AFTERNOON. AS IT                 
CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30 WITH               
GUST TO 40 KT MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS              
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRIDAY WILL               
BEGIN TO MOVE NE REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT...WHERE IT               
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...A LOW CENTER WILL               
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND MON.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
00Z TAFS REFLECT EXPECTED WARM FROPA TNGT. SHRA/ISOLD TS IN ADVANCE             
OF WARM FNT WL IMPACT SAW/CMX THRU 06Z BEFORE H85 WARM FNT SHIFTS TO            
THE N AND CAPPING ENDS ALL BUT ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THREAT. AS WARM FNT            
APRCHS...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE OVERNGT. EXPECT PD OF               
LLWS AT CMX WITH MORE ESE FLOW UNDER WARM FNTL INVRN/INCRSG                     
NOCTURNAL LLJ. PASSAGE OF SFC WARM FNT TMRW MRNG...DIURNAL HTG...AND            
STRONG SW FLOW AHD OF POWERHOUSE LO PRES MOVING NEWD TO THE NW OF               
THE CWA WL CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR RANGE ON THU AS WINDS GUST AOA             
30 KTS. APRCH OF COLD FNT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TS LATE IN THE DAY.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
728 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...A CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT             
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF                 
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO ALL TAF SITES...                 
THOUGH PLN AND TVC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WIND SHEAR A BIG CONCERN               
OVERNIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS UNDER STRONG WARM                
ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40 TO 50 KNOTS            
RIGHT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. HENCE WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR ALL TAF               
SITES DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW ALSO EXPECTED AS                    
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING AS WARM                
FRONT LIFTS EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE            
WINDY AS MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY STRONG.                   
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25              
TO 30 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A WARM FRONT EMANATING                
FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...EASTERN IOWA AND                
WESTERN ILLINOIS.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS                
WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE LEADING                
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                
CLOSER TO HOME TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S            
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER) WITH AN                    
ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU FIELD...MOST PREVALENT OVER NE LOWER WITH HELP              
FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.                                         
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER                
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.                           
TONIGHT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH AN ELEVATED            
WARM FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 45-55 KT            
SW-NE LLJ WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING OVER WISCONSIN AND UPPER              
MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE ON THE                
NOSE OF THIS LLJ ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT THE            
WIDTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHWEST LOWER              
AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH MORE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING                      
DEVELOPING OVER NE LOWER THAT COULD PRODUCE SCT ACTIVITY.  EXPECT               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE NE WITH THE                 
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EASTERN UPPER LOOKS IN A FAVORABLE             
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  AS FOR SEVERE                           
POTENTIAL...STRONG 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WITH 850MB WINDS                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF               
50-60KTS SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ORGANIZATION              
THAT COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ON THE OTHERHAND...ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER               
REACHING A MAX AROUND 500 J/KG AROUND 09Z...WHILE ONLY AROUND 200               
J/KG AT PLN AND TVC.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE              
FROM 10KFT AT 00Z TO 14.5KFT BY 12Z WITH THE WAA.  IF ROTATION CAN              
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN UPDRAFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED                 
STORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN             
UPPER.                                                                          
TOMORROW...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA STRONG 50KT LLJ OVER THE             
850MB FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE NE TO START THE MORNING...WHILE             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LAGS BEHIND SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.              
WAS THINKING A THREAT WAS THERE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP JUST                
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK                 
ALONG IT...AND A SIMILAR STORY PLAYED OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE                 
PLAINS WHERE SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING                      
ALOFT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DURING THE MORNING.  AIR                
ALOFT REALLY GETS JUICY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR              
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.  850MB/700MB TEMPS SOAR TO 16-18C/10-12C              
BY THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MIXING...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80F                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR 90 ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF                    
NORTHERN LOWER. DESPITE THE WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS NEAR THE                    
SURFACE...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A DOMINANT CAP BETWEEN                
700-800MB WITH NEARLY 200 J/KG OF SBCIN.  ADDITIONALLY...MAX WINDS              
IN THE MIXING LAYER REACH 50 KTS...WHICH WILL OVERWHELM LAKE BREEZES            
FROM DEVELOPING THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO OVERCOME THE                    
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT                
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING AND WILL               
LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE. COLD FRONT REACHES THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRI...AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE            
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                  
TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SVR             
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE OVERRIDING PROBLEM OF THE DAY.                  
MODELS...GFS STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE UPPER TROF ON             
FRIDAY VERY WELL. IT IS QUITE A BIT FASTER TO MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU            
THE REGION. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING THE              
UPPER TROF OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...IS PREFERRED.                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...IN SHORT...SVR WX/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT               
STILL LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL.                                                        
TO START THE EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL LIE FROM WESTERN WI TO             
EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL CAPPED OVER HERE...BUT COLD ADVECTION AT                 
700MB AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THAT CAP TOWARD              
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL               
NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT            
DECOUPLING...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED AND LIMITING                 
SURFACE TEMP FALLS. A MID 70S OVER LOWER 60S SURFACE PARCEL STILL               
CORRESPONDS TO MLCAPE OF 500-750J/KG. NOT ANYTHING EXTREME...BUT                
RESPECTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.           
THE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE NOT MARGINAL IN THE SLIGHTEST. 850MB              
WINDS 50-60KT...AND 500MB WINDS NEAR 80KT. EVEN WITH LARGELY                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES 60-70KT. WITH DRY               
MID LEVELS UPSTREAM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SERIAL DERECHO.                
STORM EVOLUTION IS A FITFUL THING...SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE                 
FAVORED UPSTREAM...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MULTICELL LINEAR                   
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THAT IS NOT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED                     
(PRIMARILY NON-SUPERCELLULAR) TOR. REMEMBER THAT OUR TORNADO NEAR               
CADILLAC LAST OCTOBER WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...ON A BOWING              
LINE SEGMENT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN            
HAZARD.                                                                         
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR. WILL FINE-TUNE            
TIMING...PARTICULARLY SLOWING ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE EAST. LIKELY             
POPS IN ORDER OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. SVR THREAT                
WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR LAKE MI COAST AROUND                      
MIDNIGHT...AND TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH TIME. WILL DIMINISH POPS                
LATE IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN.              
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN             
THE MORNING...AND BE EAST OF US BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH               
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS                
SMALL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EXTREME SE                
CORNER (SOUTH OF HARRISVILLE) THRU EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WRAPAROUND              
MOISTURE MAY PLAGUE EASTERN UPPER MI...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING               
UPPER TROF...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS              
WILL RANGE FROM 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SE.                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...QUIET WX ON TAP AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY               
GOES THRU EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS               
PERIOD WILL RACE ACROSS CANADA...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.                       
INSTEAD...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE            
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR                      
SKIES...AND A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.            
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
REST OF THE FORECAST...HUDSON BAY LOW...AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN CONUS...WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.               
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WX DRY AND                 
COMFORTABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL              
BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD. PACIFIC ENERGY POUNDING INTO THE WESTERN                
STATES WILL ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE LAKES              
REGION AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A STORMY PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGGED DIRECTLY            
OVERHEAD...OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS SMALL. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED              
FORECAST DRY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.                                
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
409 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIAL             
OF SVR STORMS LATE THU AFTN/EVENING.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD/DEEP TROF OVER THE            
WRN STATES. 12Z RAOBS SHOW THAT THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR                
EARLY JUNE WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB UPWARDS OF 200M OVER NV.             
12Z RAOBS ALSO SHOW THAT SRLY WINDS HAD ALREADY INCREASED                       
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WITH 850MB               
WINDS AROUND 50KT ACROSS KS/NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AT THE NOSE OF               
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...AN              
ARC OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NRN MN TO SW WI IS SPREADING E AND NE.                    
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER               
THE ROCKIES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA. UNSEASONABLY DEEP SYSTEM FOR             
EARLY JUNE (500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OR 280M BLO              
LONG TERM AVG FOR EARLY JUNE) WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS               
THU. IN RESPONSE...NOSE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT WILL                 
SHIFT E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN ARC OF                   
IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS 850MB WARM                 
FRONT RACES N. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING STRONG THETA-E            
ADVECTION INTO THE SW FCST AREA BY 00Z...AND THEN LIFTING IT N OF               
THE FCST AREA BY 09Z. 850MB WARM FRONT RACES N OF UPPER MI BY                   
06Z...AND THIS SHOULD BASICALLY SIGNAL THE END OF PCPN CHANCES                  
OVERNIGHT AS CAPPED AIRMASS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SO...WILL            
GO WITH HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EVENING (SPREADING W TO E).             
BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW AND THE ERN            
FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE NEARING PEAK AT THE TIME 850MB               
WARM FRONT PASSES THOSE AREAS. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY              
LATE IN THE NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH                     
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA. TRYING TO DETERMINE EFFECTIVE DEEP                 
LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS NOT AN EASY TASK...BUT IT APPEARS            
IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...PROVIDED ELEVATED                   
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH. GFS MUCAPE IS NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED            
J/KG...SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY                     
MORE (UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG). THAT`S TO THE SW OF ITS PCPN AREA WHICH             
MAY BE AN INDICATION OF WHAT COULD BE AVBL FOR THE STORMS. AT THIS              
POINT...WHILE THERE MIGHT BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM (HAIL)...THE OVERALL            
SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TONIGHT WITH HIGHER CAPE DISPLACED WELL              
SW OF EXPECTED PCPN AREA.                                                       
EXPECT CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO DOMINATE THU MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE             
MID AFTN HRS. DEPENDING ON MIXING HEIGHT...IT COULD BE VERY WINDY...            
REQUIRING WIND ADVY OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA AS 40-50KT ARE AVBL              
AS LOW AS 3-5KFT. IF FULL SUN DEVELOPS...WIND ADVY WILL BE A                    
CERTAINTY. SINCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A QUESTION...WILL ONLY            
RAMP WINDS UP TO 20-30MPH IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH              
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE OVER ABOUT THE W                
HALF OF FCST AREA AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WHICH WILL                  
DOMINATE THE E UNDER STRONG SRLY FLOW. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT STILL             
LOOKS LIKE DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS THE CAP WILL ERODE. INHERITED               
FCST LOOKED FINE WITH PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING 21Z OVER THE W HALF OF             
THE FCST AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (IN EXCESS              
OF 60KT) TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT.            
NAM MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500J/KG WHILE GFS IS AROUND                 
1000J/KG.                                                                       
TSRA WILL MARCH E THU NIGHT...AND PCPN SHOULD END WITH PASSAGE OF               
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. -SHRA CHANCES SHOULD RETURN OVER THE W             
LATE AS FAIRLY STRONG SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE               
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE                 
HEADS E FRI MORNING...OPTED TO CARRY LOW CHC POPS E ACROSS THE FCST             
AREA BEFORE TRENDING TO A DRY FCST FRI AFTN FROM W TO E.                        
OTHERWISE...FRI SHOULD BE A BREEZY/COOLER DAY.                                  
SUN THRU WED...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS              
OVER THE LAST 24HRS. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WILL CONTROL THE             
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE               
EXTENDING N SOMEWHERE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY...THE DECISION            
WAS TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OR NEAR ENOUGH TO             
UPPER MI TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY...SIMILAR TO 12Z/05 GFS/ECMWF                
RUNS. WHILE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER             
E WITH RIDGE AXIS...BULK OF GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED                
RIDGE FARTHER W LIKE THE 12Z/05 GFS/ECMWF. THE PLAN TODAY WILL BE TO            
FOLLOW CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND MAINTAIN A DRY REGIME                  
DURING THIS PERIOD. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF                
SOME SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IF RIDGE AXIS IS LESS PRONOUNCED AND                
FARTHER E...BUT CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS MUCH TOO LOW TO PICK A TIME             
FRAME TO INCLUDE BROAD BRUSH CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL                  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL               
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THU AFTERNOON. AS IT                 
CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30 WITH               
GUST TO 40 KT MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS              
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRIDAY WILL               
BEGIN TO MOVE NE REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT...WHERE IT               
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...A LOW CENTER WILL               
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND MON.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
BOTH TAF SITES. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY THIS             
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WOULD              
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. AT THIS                  
TIME...THE CHANCE IS SUCH THAT TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS SEEMED LIKE              
THE BEST OPTION. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO            
GUST AOA 25 KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT                 
KSAW. WARM AIR ADVECTION DESTABLIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIX SOME             
OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SURFACE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS             
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
MARINE/AVIATION...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
348 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES               
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A WARM FRONT                 
EMANATING FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...EASTERN               
IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF            
THIS WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE                   
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN.  CLOSER TO HOME TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE              
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER)               
WITH AN ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU FIELD...MOST PREVALENT OVER NE LOWER                
WITH HELP FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.                               
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER                
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.                           
TONIGHT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH AN ELEVATED            
WARM FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 45-55 KT            
SW-NE LLJ WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING OVER WISCONSIN AND UPPER              
MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE ON THE                
NOSE OF THIS LLJ ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT THE            
WIDTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHWEST LOWER              
AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH MORE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING                      
DEVELOPING OVER NE LOWER THAT COULD PRODUCE SCT ACTIVITY.  EXPECT               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE NE WITH THE                 
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EASTERN UPPER LOOKS IN A FAVORABLE             
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  AS FOR SEVERE                           
POTENTIAL...STRONG 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WITH 850MB WINDS                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF               
50-60KTS SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ORGANIZATION              
THAT COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ON THE OTHERHAND...ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER               
REACHING A MAX AROUND 500 J/KG AROUND 09Z...WHILE ONLY AROUND 200               
J/KG AT PLN AND TVC.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE              
FROM 10KFT AT 00Z TO 14.5KFT BY 12Z WITH THE WAA.  IF ROTATION CAN              
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN UPDRAFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED                 
STORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN             
UPPER.                                                                          
TOMORROW...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA STRONG 50KT LLJ OVER THE             
850MB FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE NE TO START THE MORNING...WHILE             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LAGS BEHIND SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.              
WAS THINKING A THREAT WAS THERE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP JUST                
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK                 
ALONG IT...AND A SIMILAR STORY PLAYED OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE                 
PLAINS WHERE SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING                      
ALOFT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DURING THE MORNING.  AIR                
ALOFT REALLY GETS JUICY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR              
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.  850MB/700MB TEMPS SOAR TO 16-18C/10-12C              
BY THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MIXING...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80F                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR 90 ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF                    
NORTHERN LOWER. DESPITE THE WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS NEAR THE                    
SURFACE...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A DOMINANT CAP BETWEEN                
700-800MB WITH NEARLY 200 J/KG OF SBCIN.  ADDITIONALLY...MAX WINDS              
IN THE MIXING LAYER REACH 50 KTS...WHICH WILL OVERWHELM LAKE BREEZES            
FROM DEVELOPING THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO OVERCOME THE                    
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT                
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING AND WILL               
LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE. COLD FRONT REACHES THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRI...AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE            
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                  
TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SVR             
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE OVERRIDING PROBLEM OF THE DAY.                  
MODELS...GFS STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE UPPER TROF ON             
FRIDAY VERY WELL. IT IS QUITE A BIT FASTER TO MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU            
THE REGION. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING THE              
UPPER TROF OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...IS PREFERRED.                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...IN SHORT...SVR WX/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT               
STILL LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL.                                                        
TO START THE EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL LIE FROM WESTERN WI TO             
EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL CAPPED OVER HERE...BUT COLD ADVECTION AT                 
700MB AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THAT CAP TOWARD              
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL               
NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT            
DECOUPLING...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED AND LIMITING                 
SURFACE TEMP FALLS. A MID 70S OVER LOWER 60S SURFACE PARCEL STILL               
CORRESPONDS TO MLCAPE OF 500-750J/KG. NOT ANYTHING EXTREME...BUT                
RESPECTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.           
THE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE NOT MARGINAL IN THE SLIGHTEST. 850MB              
WINDS 50-60KT...AND 500MB WINDS NEAR 80KT. EVEN WITH LARGELY                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES 60-70KT. WITH DRY               
MID LEVELS UPSTREAM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SERIAL DERECHO.                
STORM EVOLUTION IS A FITFUL THING...SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE                 
FAVORED UPSTREAM...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MULTICELL LINEAR                   
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THAT IS NOT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED                     
(PRIMARILY NON-SUPERCELLULAR) TOR. REMEMBER THAT OUR TORNADO NEAR               
CADILLAC LAST OCTOBER WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...ON A BOWING              
LINE SEGMENT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN            
HAZARD.                                                                         
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR. WILL FINE-TUNE            
TIMING...PARTICULARLY SLOWING ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE EAST. LIKELY             
POPS IN ORDER OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. SVR THREAT                
WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR LAKE MI COAST AROUND                      
MIDNIGHT...AND TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH TIME. WILL DIMINISH POPS                
LATE IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN.              
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN             
THE MORNING...AND BE EAST OF US BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH               
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS                
SMALL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EXTREME SE                
CORNER (SOUTH OF HARRISVILLE) THRU EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WRAPAROUND              
MOISTURE MAY PLAGUE EASTERN UPPER MI...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING               
UPPER TROF...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS              
WILL RANGE FROM 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SE.                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...QUIET WX ON TAP AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY               
GOES THRU EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS               
PERIOD WILL RACE ACROSS CANADA...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.                       
INSTEAD...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE            
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR                      
SKIES...AND A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.            
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
REST OF THE FORECAST...HUDSON BAY LOW...AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN CONUS...WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.               
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WX DRY AND                 
COMFORTABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL              
BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD. PACIFIC ENERGY POUNDING INTO THE WESTERN                
STATES WILL ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE LAKES              
REGION AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A STORMY PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGGED DIRECTLY            
OVERHEAD...OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS SMALL. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED              
FORECAST DRY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.                                
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN CU                
THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY             
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. A               
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A               
ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO ALL TAF                 
SITES...THOUGH PLN AND TVC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WIND SHEAR A BIG               
CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS UNDER STRONG             
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40 TO 50             
KNOTS RIGHT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. HENCE WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR ALL             
TAF SITES DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW ALSO EXPECTED AS                
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING AS WARM                
FRONT LIFTS EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE            
WINDY AS MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY STRONG.                   
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25              
TO 30 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.               
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
134 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...A CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN CU                
THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST                
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.              
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING               
A ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO ALL TAF               
SITES...THOUGH PLN AND TVC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WIND SHEAR A BIG               
CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS UNDER                    
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING               
40 TO 50 KNOTS RIGHT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. HENCE WILL INCLUDE                    
MENTION FOR ALL TAF SITES DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE FLOW                 
ALSO EXPECTED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW               
MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE                           
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW               
ALOFT REMAINS VERY STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH                      
EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER              
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                               
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007/                         
UPDATE...12Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY             
SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH                 
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RFQ OF A NW-SE ORIENTATED 100KT JET            
STREAK.  DESPITE SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS               
HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AFTER MANY                 
LOCATIONS REPORTED FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.  TO THE WEST OF             
THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS...WHICH LIES FROM WESTERN TN/KY ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...STRENGTHENING WAA IS                       
UNDERWAY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA              
AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REALLY WARM AIR LIES              
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS SE TO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE 850MB TEMPS SOAR ABOVE +20C...COMPARED TO             
THE +3C OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
TO THE NE OVER THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE US PRECIP CONCERNS             
STARTING THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS AND CLOUD                
COVER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS             
850MB WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE COOLEST AIR              
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...AND EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO ALLOW DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE                  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  VERY DRY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINT              
DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 40C AT 700MB JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL             
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND COMBINED WITH THE WAA...BELIEVE             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  BY THIS                
TIME HOWEVER...MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL                
APPROACH THE SW ZONES.  NAM SOUNDINGS BY 00Z THU SHOW A NEARLY                  
SATURATED LAYER ABOVE 675MB...BUT DRY AIR WILL RESIDE BELOW WITH A              
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 20C AT 800MB AROUND MANISTEE AND BENZIE COUNTIES.        
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF             
MID-LEVEL ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE TO WARRANT A LIGHT SHOWER              
ADDITION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK              
ON TRACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.                                           
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM                                                 
ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED             
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 989 MB LOW PRESSURE               
CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE IN UTAH. MEANWHILE...POTENT UPPER             
LEVEL SYSTEM HAD MOVED ON-SHORE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE                 
CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS                
WILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THE SEVERE THREAT FROM WEDNESDAY                   
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                         
BIG SWINGS IN THE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FROM             
FROSTY IN SOME AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DOWNRIGHT HOT ON THURSDAY            
WITH STORMY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THEN FINALLY SETTLING                
INTO MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.                     
TODAY...LOTS OF SPOTS...MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MIDDLE               
30S RIGHT NOW SO SOME FROST HAS LIKELY ALREADY FORMED (IN FACT...WE             
HAVE A LITTLE HERE AT THE OFFICE). THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY GOES              
THROUGH 6 AM WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK. AN UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING TO             
TAKE IT DOWN AROUND EXPIRATION TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION SETS            
IN TODAY (ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON) AS THE STRONG SYSTEM OUT WEST              
BEGINS TO ROCKET TO THE EAST COURTESY OF A 120 KNOT JET. THIS WILL              
LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER DAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE                   
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO BETWEEN PLUS 7 AND PLUS 9 C              
BY 00Z THU. SO HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH            
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SO SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS            
ARE EXPECTED.                                                                   
TONIGHT...AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN...IT WILL PUSH A             
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A 700 MB THETA-E            
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MODEL                        
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH            
THIS SYSTEM (IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING THEN ACROSS ALL ZONES AFTER             
MIDNIGHT). 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5.5-6.25 C/KM             
OVERNIGHT. SHEAR RAMPS UP WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60 KTS                    
OVERNIGHT. SO THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES                
DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...WITH THE MAIN                
THREAT BEING HAIL. MORE SEASONABLE LOWS WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED.               
THURSDAY...NOT A LOT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AS PLAINS            
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE                
THAT A STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SKY ROCKET TO                 
18-20 C. IN ADDITION...NO SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE TRIGGERS IN EVIDENCE            
(950 MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEFINITELY STOP LAKE BREEZES               
FROM FORMING). THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION               
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND SURFACE               
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S. LASTLY...EXPECT BREEZY TO              
WINDY CONDITIONS.                                                               
THURSDAY NIGHT...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INDUCED SQUALL LINE IS                    
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. IF             
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THIS LINE OF STORMS WOULD LIKELY PROGRESS               
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. STRONG FORCING                  
SHOULD ERODE OUR CAP WITH TIME ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO               
WESTERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY IN THE               
MORNING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIKE IT              
WILL BE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROGERS CITY TO LAKE CITY AS WELL            
AS EASTERN UPPER. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH AS                 
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES A VERY IMPRESSIVE 65-70 KTS AND 700-500 MB              
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM.                                                      
FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER HINGING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SURFACE            
COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO             
EAST DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AS THE             
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70             
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.                                               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR             
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 20 TO 30 PERCENT).                
THEREFORE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 6-8C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S SATURDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOME              
WARM AIR ADVECTION.                                                             
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
131 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER            
GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE              
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS OVER               
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ENROUTE TO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS              
INDICATES A DEEP LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT                   
PROJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT                
DRAPES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE             
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA.                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE U.P.            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO JAMES BAY.                 
THE LOW OVER WYOMING WILL TRAVEL TO THE BLACK HILLS DRAGGING THE                
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHING THE WARM FRONT              
INTO EASTERN IOWA. 305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT             
INDICATES ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST               
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN              
U.P. AS WELL. USING THE LOCAL GENERATE WRF FORECAST FOR TIMING...THE            
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN                  
GUIDANCE NOW...HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVER THE                
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN THE                 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE THE                 
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE...                                              
HIGH PRES OF 29.9 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING             
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.                        
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN            
DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THU              
AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO THU                 
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM                
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN MARINE WISE...WITH STRONG SOUTH TO                     
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35KT GALES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO                   
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE AND INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW             
ENGLAND STATES BY SUN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...                                             
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TODAY FOR BOTH TAF            
SITES. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING              
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WOULD BE                   
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. AT THIS                     
TIME...THE CHANCE IS SUCH THAT TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS SEEMED LIKE              
THE BEST OPTION.  TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE SRLY WINDS TO GUST            
AOA 25 KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KSAW.                
WARM AIR ADVECTION DESTABLIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIX SOME OF THE            
40KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SURFACE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS EXPECT             
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE...KF                                                                     
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...12Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY            
SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH                 
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RFQ OF A NW-SE ORIENTATED 100KT JET            
STREAK.  DESPITE SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS               
HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AFTER MANY                 
LOCATIONS REPORTED FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.  TO THE WEST OF             
THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS...WHICH LIES FROM WESTERN TN/KY ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...STRENGTHENING WAA IS                       
UNDERWAY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA              
AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REALLY WARM AIR LIES              
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS SE TO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE 850MB TEMPS SOAR ABOVE +20C...COMPARED TO             
THE +3C OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
TO THE NE OVER THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE US PRECIP CONCERNS             
STARTING THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS AND CLOUD                
COVER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS             
850MB WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE COOLEST AIR              
WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...AND EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO ALLOW DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE                  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  VERY DRY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINT              
DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 40C AT 700MB JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL             
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND COMBINED WITH THE WAA...BELIEVE             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  BY THIS                
TIME HOWEVER...MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL                
APPROACH THE SW ZONES.  NAM SOUNDINGS BY 00Z THU SHOW A NEARLY                  
SATURATED LAYER ABOVE 675MB...BUT DRY AIR WILL RESIDE BELOW WITH A              
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 20C AT 800MB AROUND MANISTEE AND BENZIE COUNTIES.        
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF             
MID-LEVEL ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE TO WARRANT A LIGHT SHOWER              
ADDITION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK              
ON TRACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.                                           
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 727 AM                                                    
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST             
00Z THU. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND SCT                
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS              
WILL INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT            
MOVING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AROUND              
PLN AND TVC THIS EVENING AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND               
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE                    
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.            
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM                                                
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE NEXT HOUR...SO THE FROST ADVISORY            
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                                                     
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM                                                 
ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED             
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 989 MB LOW PRESSURE               
CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE IN UTAH. MEANWHILE...POTENT UPPER             
LEVEL SYSTEM HAD MOVED ON-SHORE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE                 
CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS                
WILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THE SEVERE THREAT FROM WEDNESDAY                   
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                         
BIG SWINGS IN THE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FROM             
FROSTY IN SOME AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DOWNRIGHT HOT ON THURSDAY            
WITH STORMY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THEN FINALLY SETTLING                
INTO MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.                     
TODAY...LOTS OF SPOTS...MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MIDDLE               
30S RIGHT NOW SO SOME FROST HAS LIKELY ALREADY FORMED (IN FACT...WE             
HAVE A LITTLE HERE AT THE OFFICE). THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY GOES              
THROUGH 6 AM WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK. AN UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING TO             
TAKE IT DOWN AROUND EXPIRATION TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION SETS            
IN TODAY (ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON) AS THE STRONG SYSTEM OUT WEST              
BEGINS TO ROCKET TO THE EAST COURTESY OF A 120 KNOT JET. THIS WILL              
LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER DAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE                   
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO BETWEEN PLUS 7 AND PLUS 9 C              
BY 00Z THU. SO HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH            
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SO SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS            
ARE EXPECTED.                                                                   
TONIGHT...AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN...IT WILL PUSH A             
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A 700 MB THETA-E            
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MODEL                        
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH            
THIS SYSTEM (IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING THEN ACROSS ALL ZONES AFTER             
MIDNIGHT). 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5.5-6.25 C/KM             
OVERNIGHT. SHEAR RAMPS UP WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60 KTS                    
OVERNIGHT. SO THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES                
DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...WITH THE MAIN                
THREAT BEING HAIL. MORE SEASONABLE LOWS WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED.               
THURSDAY...NOT A LOT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AS PLAINS            
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE                
THAT A STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SKY ROCKET TO                 
18-20 C. IN ADDITION...NO SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE TRIGGERS IN EVIDENCE            
(950 MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEFINITELY STOP LAKE BREEZES               
FROM FORMING). THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION               
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND SURFACE               
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S. LASTLY...EXPECT BREEZY TO              
WINDY CONDITIONS.                                                               
THURSDAY NIGHT...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INDUCED SQUALL LINE IS                    
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. IF             
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THIS LINE OF STORMS WOULD LIKELY PROGRESS               
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. STRONG FORCING                  
SHOULD ERODE OUR CAP WITH TIME ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO               
WESTERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY IN THE               
MORNING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIKE IT              
WILL BE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROGERS CITY TO LAKE CITY AS WELL            
AS EASTERN UPPER. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH AS                 
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES A VERY IMPRESSIVE 65-70 KTS AND 700-500 MB              
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM.                                                      
FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER HINGING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SURFACE            
COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO             
EAST DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AS THE             
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70             
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.                                               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR             
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 20 TO 30 PERCENT).                
THEREFORE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 6-8C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S SATURDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOME              
WARM AIR ADVECTION.                                                             
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/400MB HEIGHT RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD                 
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WITH PARENT LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. TO THE               
WEST A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY EXITING THE ROCKIES AHEAD              
OF AN ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING. LATEST METAR              
OBS SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE IS AROUND 988 MB. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS               
THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 977 MB OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY BY 18Z THU BEFORE MARCHING THROUGH THE FA ON FRIDAY                      
MORNING/AFTERNOON.                                                              
TONIGHT...DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG                
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DECIDED            
TO INCLUDE FAR EASTERN ALGER AND LUCE IN LIKELY POPS. AS WARM                   
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST...WITH RESIDUAL PRECIP AHEAD OF               
STRONG COLD FRONT ITS WORTH KEEPING MENTION OF TSRA THROUGH 12Z                 
THU. AFTER THAT WAA KICKS IN AND FA IS CAPPED FOR MOST OF THU. 00Z              
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KIMT...KIWD...KSAW SHOW CAP BREAKING AROUND 18Z             
THU. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS AROUND 00Z...SEVERE WEATHER                     
PARAMETERS INDICATE LINEAR MCS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FA THU                   
EVENING. BIGGEST THREAT IS WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS. INITIALLY             
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL LIMIT SEVERE HAIL THREAT...THOUGH THE                  
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THE                 
FRONT...DID ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. GIVEN            
GOOD COOLING BEHIND FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN VERY                  
CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT...THOUGH NAM HAS BEEN A BIT STRONG              
WITH PARENT LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. FRONT SHOULD PASS             
THROUGH FA BY 18Z...THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM               
THE SOUTH. NO CHANGES MADE TO DAY 3 GRIDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE...                                              
HIGH PRES OF 29.9 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING             
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.                        
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN            
DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THU              
AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO THU                 
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM                
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN MARINE WISE...WITH STRONG SOUTH TO                     
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35KT GALES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO                   
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE AND INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW             
ENGLAND STATES BY SUN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...                                             
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR               
BOTH TAF SITES. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY LATE             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR               
CEILINGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT                 
FORM. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE IS SUCH THAT TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS            
SEEMED LIKE THE BEST OPTION.  TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A STRONG             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE SRLY             
WINDS TO GUST AOA 25 KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AT KSAW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
MARINE...KF                                                                     
AVIATION...VOSS/KF                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
128 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/WED)...                                                    
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING               
FROM WESTERN WYOMING NORTH THROUGH ALBERTA. A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN               
U.P. AND LOWER MICHIGAN...FOOLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SAILING DOWN            
THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER QUEBEC...A                  
BROAD RIDGE BLANKETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONTARIO...AND THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER ALBERTA AND THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA               
SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS...THEN EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
PLAIN TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN NORTH TO THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND INTO            
CENTRAL QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH             
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL NAVIGATE THROUGH THE U.P. TONIGHT AND               
WEDNESDAY. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN                
U.P. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY             
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.            
DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY AS                    
DEPICTED BY THE WRF AND GFS. THUS EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD            
FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.                                                      
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)...                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA             
WED NIGHT/THU AND POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS.                                      
UNSEASONABLY DEEP STORM SYSTEM (500MB HEIGHTS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
OR 280M BLO NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE) WILL LIFT NE INTO THE DAKOTAS WED            
NIGHT/THU MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WRN                 
PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP WED NIGHT. NAM SHOWS UPWARDS OF            
70KT DIRECTED INTO SRN MN/WI WHILE GFS IS AROUND 50KT. REALITY WILL             
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. IN ANYCASE...WHERE STORMS WILL             
FIRE AT NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND AVBL INSTABILITY ARE THE MAIN                 
QUESTIONS. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE 850MB WARM FRONT AS A GUIDE FOR            
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS THE NAM/GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON ITS             
PROGRESSION N WED NIGHT. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES N WITH                    
IT...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE            
IT APPEARS STRONGEST 850MB CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED. PCPN CHANCES            
SHOULD END BY SUNRISE THU AS FCST AREA FALLS UNDER THE CAPPED WARM              
SECTOR. HOWEVER...WILL BUFFER THIS TIME RANGE WITH DIMINISHING POPS             
BEFORE GOING DRY EVERYWHERE BY MID MORNING THU. AS FOR                          
INSTABILITY...WITH GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...ITS TOUGH TO GET MORE THAN A            
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE                  
(1000J/KG OR BETTER)...BUT THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT CIN TO OVERCOME            
TO REALIZE THE MUCAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE INVERSION               
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SVR STORMS              
SHOULD INSTABILITY BE SUFFICIENT. THESE DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE              
CERTAIN WED.                                                                    
FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAPPED WARM SECTOR FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF               
THE DAY THU...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A WARM/WINDY DAY. NAM/GFS FCST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE              
DAY. WHILE STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY...DON`T SEE MUCH REASON               
FOR IT TO HANG AROUND VERY LONG WITH HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE AND                    
MECHANICAL MIXING OWING TO LOW-LEVEL JET. WILL OPT FOR PARTLY SUNNY             
CONDITIONS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS ABOVE WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AS               
850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF AT LEAST 16C ARRIVES (AS WARM AS 21C IF UKMET            
IS RIGHT). 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE OVER ABOUT THE W HALF OF FCST AREA            
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE E UNDER               
STRONG SRLY FLOW. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT WELL TO THE W            
THU AFTN. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO LEAVE THU DRY WITH THE ASSUMPTION              
STORMS WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC COLD FRONT. HALF STEPPED FCST IN             
THAT DIRECTION... BRINGING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE W HALF LATE AFTN...BUT            
KEPT THE E DRY UNTIL EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER                
SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 60KT) TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS...AND INSTABILITY               
WILL BE SUFFICIENT. NAM MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500J/KG                 
WHILE GFS IS AROUND 1000J/KG.                                                   
SHRA/TSRA WILL MARCH E THRU THU NIGHT. WHILE PCPN SHOULD END WITH               
PASSAGE OF MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS FOR            
-SHRA IN ITS WAKE. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW -SHRA TO THE             
NW FCST AREA FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...FRI SHOULD BE DRY AND BREEZY.             
SAT THRU TUE...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A               
MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE WRN GREAT LAKES              
MAINLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THIS TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THAT...                
GLOBAL CANADIAN SENDS A SHORTWAVE THRU THE UPPER LAKES SUN. THE GFS             
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF HAS NO DISCERNIBLE              
SHORTWAVE (INCLUDING THE 12Z/04 RUN). WILL FOLLOW BULK OF GUIDANCE              
AND IGNORE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR NOW. SO...FOR THE WEEKEND...               
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO DOMINATE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE              
EXITING THE AREA FRI. LOCATION OF THE BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL              
BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF               
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP E OF HERE...THE FCST AREA WILL BE PRONE TO                   
SHRA/TSRA. IF RIDGE IS FARTHER W...IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ECMWF HAD            
TRENDED SLIGHTLY E OVER THE LAST 2 RUNS...BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF             
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SET UP FARTHER W AND CLOSE            
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FCST MON/TUE. ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN WAS                 
IGNORED WITH THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...IT SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF.             
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN              
EXPECT READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUN THRU TUE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN                
ROCKIES ON WED WHICH LIFTS NE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU AND THEN            
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRI MORNING. A STRONG SE-S FLOW TO 30                  
KT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH                
WINDS VEERING SW AND W THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND INCREASING TO GALE                
STRENGTH THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING. WAVES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED                 
NIGHT INTO THU AND THEN INCREASE TO 8 TO 11 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI                
WITH GREATER MIXING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...                                             
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR               
BOTH TAF SITES. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY LATE             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR               
CEILINGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT                 
FORM. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE SRLY WINDS TO GUST AOA 25            
KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT KSAW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...DLG                                                         
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO              
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING FROM                  
WESTERN WYOMING NORTH THROUGH ALBERTA. A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH             
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. AND                  
WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SAILING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE             
IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW AND                  
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BROAD RIDGE                    
BLANKETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONTARIO...AND THE UPPER GREAT                  
LAKES...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER ALBERTA AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A            
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH INTO              
THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS...THEN EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN TO                 
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN NORTH TO THE LOW OVER QUEBEC.                        
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.                 
GFS/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A POSSIBLE               
CLOUD DECK AROUND 800MB. A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOTED              
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. A STRONG INVERSION IS AROUND 750MB. A LITTLE             
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. COULD SATURATE THIS              
LAYER AND PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SATELLITE SHOWING THE DECK             
OF AS/AC AROUND 750MB IS SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS            
ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE U.P. THE AS SHOULD                 
EROSE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. ALSO            
THE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE NOW...HOWEVER...AS THE             
CLOUD COVER ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WILL CAUSE THE                
TEMPERATURES TO CATCH UP. THUS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR                
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NRLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TODAY AS SFC LOW EXITS THE               
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL                 
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WAVES SUBSIDE              
TO CALM TO 2 FT TONIGHT.                                                        
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES            
ON WED WHICH LIFTS NE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU AND THEN INTO               
NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRI MORNING. LOOK FOR STRONGER SE-S FLOW TO 30              
KT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH                
WINDS VEERING SW AND W THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND INCREASING BRIEFLY TO             
GALE STRENGTH. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT OVER                   
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THU AND THEN INCREASE TO 9 TO             
12 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH GREATER MIXING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND 4.5-6.5K FT THIS               
AFTERNOON AND VERIFIED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE REPORT. HIGH                    
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ERODE                
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE               
REPORTS INDICATE A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO                
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING GRADIENT               
WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
236 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                             
.SYNOPSIS...WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER             
THE ERN CONUS A RDG FROM THE SW TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER              
THE ERN PAC. A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD REACHED SW LOWER             
MI.THE AREA OF DEFORMATION AND STRONG 700-500 MB FGEN NW OF THE LOW             
THAT SUPPORTED BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SE UPPER MI AND NRN LK              
MI WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SCT SHRA HAD               
ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR CYQT INTO NE MN AHEAD OF A TRAILING                    
SHORTWAVE. -SHRA WERE HAVING A HARD TIME SURVIVING ACROSS THE STABLE            
AIR OVER N AND W LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VIS LOOP SHOWED AREA OF CLEAR              
SKIES.                                                                          
TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z NAM/RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE                        
LINGERING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SE WILL MOVE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCT -SHRA BTWN 00Z-03Z ALONG AND E             
OF GRAND MARAIS-KISQ. ALSO...ONLY ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES SHOULD                  
SURVIVE INTO FAR W UPPER MI THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL                   
CLEARING...PER 925-700 MB RH PROGS...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO              
NEAR 40 WITH UPPER 30S INLAND.                                                  
TUE...EVEN THOUGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...100-300 J/KG            
AT BEST...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS TILL NEAR E UPPER MI BY                  
AFTERNOON AND A -23C 500 MB COLD POOL OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE               
OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SOUTH. SO...SLGT CHANCE POPS WERE                  
RETAINED. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO 3C RANGE SUPPORT               
DEVELOPMENT OF SC INLAND FROM NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR AND TEMPS               
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW 60S S AND W.                     
EXTENDED...                                                                     
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER               
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT FROM JUST            
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC. ANOTHER LOW OFF THE                
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN OREGON. A                 
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN BRITISH                  
COLUMBIA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST                       
AREA...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE                
FAIRLY DRY WITH A STRONG INVERSION AT 750MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE              
PRODUCTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.                                                
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AS THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE RELOCATES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW            
OVER OREGON WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. A NUMBER OF WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW            
SWEEPS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT            
WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 750MB WILL CAP             
THE AIR MASS AND PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE.                     
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE            
THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CAP            
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MORNING BUT BREAKDOWN DURING THE DAY.               
THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION. THUS                
PLAN TO ONLY HAVE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...AND SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE                   
NORTH...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON                     
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW               
WILL SWEEP THROUGH MINNESOTA AND EXTREME WESTERN U.P. ISENTROPIC                
ASCENT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE A CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                   
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FRONT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO CENTRAL QUEBEC                 
WHILE THE LOW NEAR KINL WILL MOVE TO NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY             
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO LOW             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE U.P. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK DRY SLOT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW  WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY                 
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO ZERO AND STABILITY                
INDEXES SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.                      
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON              
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO             
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH PORTIONS.                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC WHILE A ZONAL             
FLOW SETS UP OVER NORTHERN CONUS AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH               
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING DRY AIR WILL BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA AS            
WELL THROUGH THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE MOISTURE            
FIELD AS WELL, SO WILL ADD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GRIDS.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC13 WERE PREFERRED WITH THE SLOWER DIMINISHING                
TREND OF NRLY FLOW ACROSS THE E 2/3 OF THE LAKE. SO...15 TO 25 KT               
WINDS AND WAVES IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE              
DROPPING OFF TUE MORNING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PLAINS            
LOW INTO WRN ONTARIO...PER 12Z GFS RESULTS IN DELAY IN STRONGER SE              
FLOW WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING SW AND W THU NIGHT INTO              
FRI. WAVES INTO THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY            
THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH GREATER MIXING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY ADVECTING OFF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WILL             
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW AS NAM SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN             
LOW LEVELS REMAINING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM YET. VFR             
CIGS THOUGH AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN            
THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EXTENDED...DLG                                                                  
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLB                                                         
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS FROM .50 TO.75 FROM               
COOL NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. ONCE THE BAND OF                
CLOUDS ACROSS NE INTO CENTRAL MN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE                 
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...REMAINDER OF DAY SHOULD BE                 
MAINLY SUNNY ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS. BASED UPON YESTERDAY`S HIGH                
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WENT MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY             
WARMER GFS MAX TEMPERATURES.                                                    
RAPID RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT              
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF VERY                
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  700 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE            
FROM ZERO TO B6 ACROSS AREA TODAY TO +10 TO +14C BY 00Z THURSDAY.               
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING              
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHERE               
SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z THURSDAY.                
MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES             
AS WARM AS +14C INTO SE NODAK.  EXCEPTIONALY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF            
50 TO 70 KNOTS PLOWS NORTHWARD INTO MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0-6KM               
BULK SHEAR OF 50KTS OR STRONGER ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WESTERN                  
WISCONSIN.  FEEL THAN BEST AREA FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE              
ACROSS OUR NW CWA ON N EDGE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.                
THIS IS ALSO IN AREA OF STRONGEST 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION...BEST               
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET... AND RAPID            
CHANGE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.  SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON                
THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHERE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY              
UNSTABLE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF             
UPPER JET AS IT TRANSLATES EAST.  ANY CAPPING WILL ALSO NOT BE AN               
ISSUE AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF STRONG              
UPPER TROF. VERY STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO PRESENT. ALSO                     
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.                                                
ATTM LOOKS DRY FRI AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN SAT                
NITE AND SUNDAY AS WEAK TROF MOVES THRU AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/                                                     
HAVE USED MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT ON THE SURFACE WIND                     
OVERNIGHT ON MOST TAF SITES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC               
FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE              
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TURN INTO THE SOUTHEAST              
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPPING OUT OF MANITOBA              
LATE TONIGHT. APPEARANCE OF STATOCU BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ON TUESDAY              
IS IN LINE WITH BUFKIT PROFILES MIXED LAYER DEPTH.                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/MWF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
426 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A CDFNT MOVED THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG BRINGING ISO TSRA                 
MAINLY TO SW IL. THE FNT WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG INTO             
EARLY AFTN. S/W EVIDENT IN WV IMAGE CURRENTLY OVR NRN IL WILL BRING             
A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP TDY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERN THRU THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP                   
COVERAGE AS WE START AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN.                                   
A WRM FNT WILL BRING A CHC OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW TO               
AFFECT THE REGION LATE TNGT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.             
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WAA AND MOISTURE CNVG ASSOCD WITH              
THIS WRM FNT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT SO HAVE              
LEFT ONLY SLGT CHCS ATTM.                                                       
AFTER FROPA LATE TNGT INTO EARLY TMW MRNG...CWA WILL REMAIN WITHIN              
WARM SECTOR THRU AT LEAST FRI MRNG. MDLS AGREE WITH FROPA                       
TIMING...PUSHING THE CDFNT THRU ALL EXCEPT SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA             
BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN ON WED AND THURS.                
STRONG SLY TO SWLY WINDS AND OPEN GULF SHUD ALLOW DWPTS TO CLIMB                
INTO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. DWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN UPR 80S TO            
LWR 90S SHUD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE MID 90S FOR PORTIONS OF            
THE CWA.                                                                        
WARM TEMPS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN               
THRU THE WEEKEND. A NUMBER OF S/W WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALONG WITH             
NOCTURNAL LLJ AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD ALLOW FOR A CHC OF TSRA THRU             
MUCH OF THE FCST PD.                                                            
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO AND PORTIONS OF KY.               
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW FAR S THE FNT WILL GET. EXPECT               
CONVECTION ON THURS TO LEAVE A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE                  
REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW TSRA TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY SRN              
PORTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ATTM...HAVE LEFT AT LEAST                 
SLGT CHCS FOR ENTIRE AREA.                                                      
GFS PROGS ANOTHER SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE SAT NGT INTO             
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.                 
TILLY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR TIME LAPSE IT APRS               
THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY BTWN EOK AND PPQ LATE THIS               
EVNG. MAY MENTION VCSH OR A TEMPO GRP OF SHRA FOR THE FIRST                     
ONR OR TWO HRS OF THE TAF FCST IN UIN...STL AND SUS. LATEST WATER               
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A SHRTWV TROF DROPPING                  
SEWD THRU NERN IA ATTM. A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS WAS ACRS NRN               
MO AHD OF THIS FEATURE. A WK SFC TROF/CDFNT ACRS NRN MO ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING SWD THRU THE CWA LT TGT AND              
TUE MRNG. N-NWLY SFC WNDS BHND THIS WK CDFNT/SFC TROF CAN BE                    
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES ON TUE. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD                 
DVLP TUE MRNG WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE 70.              
THE BEST THREAT OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL BE JUST S OF THE TAF SITES               
WHERE BETTER LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FCST ALNG                  
AND JUST S OF WK CDFNT/SFC TROF. WILL ONLY FCST SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS              
IN UIN ON WED AS SLIGHTLY DRIER SFC DWPTS FILTER SWD INTO NRN MO                
WITH WK SFC RDGG BHND WK CDFNT/SFC TROF.                                        
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1134 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL LET GOING FORECAST STAND FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                  
INTO NRN IA AND DIVING SEWD WILL BRING SOME WEAK ASCENT OVER THE                
REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT A LOW CHC POPS                   
OVER NRN CWA AND SLGT CHC IN THE CNTRL AND SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL              
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO HAVE JUST ISOLD COVERAGE FOR TSRA. HAVE                 
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.                      
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS RAMBLED EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THE              
PAST WEEK IS NOW LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STRONG NORTHWEST               
FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT                
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COVERS THE BISTATE AREA AND WINDS HAVE BEEN               
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.                                         
A SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH                
SHOWS UP WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXTENDED FROM                      
MINNEAPOLIS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND BACK TOWARD                 
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA AT MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS               
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND                
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIME OF DAY AND NIGHTTIME STABILITY WILL WORK              
AGAINST IT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION               
TO THE AREA AND THEREFORE I HAVE LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF               
THE CWA FOR TONIGHT AND A CHANCE TOMORROW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A FEW              
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. THERE`S ANOTHER WAVE ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND                  
THAT AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY.                   
A TREMENDOUS SHORT WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES THROUGH THE                 
ROCKIES TOMORROW AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND                     
THURSDAY CREATING AN ULTRA DEEP SURFACE LOW OF WINTERLIKE                       
PROPORTIONS CENTERED IN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HUGE WARM                 
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WITH A               
60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT              
OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.                                               
THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMISES TO BE AN EXCITING TIME FOR WEATHER                
GURUS AS LOTS OF INGREDIENTS COME INTO PLACE FOR THE POSSIBILITY                
OF SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY                  
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
MAJOR WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER               
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA              
AND WIGGLES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE BISTATE AREA THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.                                    
PEDIGO                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR TIME LAPSE IT APRS               
THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY BTWN EOK AND PPQ LATE THIS               
EVNG. MAY MENTION VCSH OR A TEMPO GRP OF SHRA FOR THE FIRST                     
ONR OR TWO HRS OF THE TAF FCST IN UIN...STL AND SUS. LATEST WATER               
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A SHRTWV TROF DROPPING                  
SEWD THRU NERN IA ATTM. A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS WAS ACRS NRN               
MO AHD OF THIS FEATURE. A WK SFC TROF/CDFNT ACRS NRN MO ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING SWD THRU THE CWA LT TGT AND              
TUE MRNG. N-NWLY SFC WNDS BHND THIS WK CDFNT/SFC TROF CAN BE                    
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES ON TUE. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD                 
DVLP TUE MRNG WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE 70.              
THE BEST THREAT OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL BE JUST S OF THE TAF SITES               
WHERE BETTER LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FCST ALNG                  
AND JUST S OF WK CDFNT/SFC TROF. WILL ONLY FCST SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS              
IN UIN ON WED AS SLIGHTLY DRIER SFC DWPTS FILTER SWD INTO NRN MO                
WITH WK SFC RDGG BHND WK CDFNT/SFC TROF.                                        
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
254 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                 
WILL UTILIZE THE GFS TODAY. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE               
NAM AND (PER HPC) IS SIMILAR TO OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.                            
STAGE IS SET FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.               
ACTUALLY VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AS THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED              
FOR SOME TIME NOW. 18Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP HAS DEVELOPED              
SINCE 12Z. HOWEVER CAPE IS INCREASING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...                
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING...IT             
IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. QUESTION IS                
EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CURRENT THINKING IS                     
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA             
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. COULD SEE                     
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH AS WELL WITH GGW SOUNDING AND               
RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING LITTLE OR NOW CAP PRESENT OVER NORTHWEST                
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA.                                             
WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...STILL WORRIED ABOUT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL              
SHEAR AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH THE              
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE HEAVIEST QPF.                  
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS             
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST...ESPECIALLY             
NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY NEED SOME TYPE OF WIND HIGHLIGHTS TOMORROW               
BUT WITH EXPECTED BUSY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL HIT WINDS HARD IN THE                 
GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST AND NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.                  
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH                      
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.                
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WE DRY OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLD            
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF            
ON MENTION OF SHOWERS.                                                          
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO AN EXPECTED                
BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL WILL SEE            
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS WELL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH            
ON SATURDAY...THEN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS SCATTERED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE RATES AND LOW               
LCL LEVELS SUPPORTING CU CLOUDS OF 2500-3500FT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS               
AND VIS WILL EXPAND GREATLY IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS LIGHT TO HEAVY                
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY               
AND TONIGHT. BY 06Z THE MAJORITY OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND WILL BE IN              
IFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LIFR-VLIFR CIGS...AS A LARGE SWATH OF -SHRA AND             
SCT TSRA ENCOMPASS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.                   
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR                    
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>033-040-041-043-044.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TWH/NH                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1020 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN IMPACT TODAY REMAINS WIND SPEEDS. THE WINDS WILL CONT TO                   
INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN AS SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE             
BUT STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TODAY. WILL LEAVE LOW             
POPS ACROSS NW OK FOR LATE TODAY ON OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM                   
INITIATING NEAR THE DRYLINE... BECAUSE IF IT DOES IT WILL LIKELY BE             
SUBSTANTIAL.  NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED FOR TODAY.                              
30                                                                              
---------------------------------------------------------                       
437 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...ANTICIPATING IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS...ESPECIALLY FOR             
JUNE. SURFACE LOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER MONTANA...NORTHEAST                     
WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NORTH OF THE TRACK OF                       
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES. THOUGH             
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO HAVE AN                 
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE...LIFT...AND                     
WINDS...WILL DETERMINE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.              
THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO MOST OTHER MODELS                 
INCLUDING THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED FASTER                   
EASTWARD TRACK OF BOTH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND SECOND MID                
LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH KANSAS. THE             
00Z NAM APPEARED A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SHOWING             
A SEEMING TENDENCY FOR THAT MODEL TO HANG ON TO CLOSED UPPER LOWS               
LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SOLUTION FEATURED A STRONGER LOW              
LEVEL JET...AND POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.              
THE PREFERRED MODEL...HOWEVER...WAS ACTUALLY THE 18Z GFS...A BIT                
UNUSUAL...BUT THAT MODEL FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH THE 00Z                        
ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND ECMWF. WHILE WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE                
SEEM A CERTAINTY...THE 18Z GFS AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ARE NOT QUITE            
AS SCARY AS THE NAM. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO GO WITH A STRONGLY WORDED               
WIND ADVISORY RATHER THAN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL               
FOR GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH             
UNIDIRECTIONALLY LINKED FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ANY SEVERE             
WINDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                     
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY.                                                           
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS BEING HAMPERED              
BY THE DRYING EFFECTS OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH REACHED              
THE GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE MORE SENSE...WITH THE               
TRULY TROPICAL AIR NOT REACHING THIS LATITUDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY. WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP DURING THE               
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE            
WEST TONIGHT...WHERE SOME COOLING AND LIFT OCCUR WITHIN THE CAPPING             
LAYER.                                                                          
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED...HOWEVER...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ON                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CYCLONE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS WILL DRAG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS. IMPROVING SURFACE            
MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT APPEARS TO SUPPORT A BREAKABLE CAP            
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL              
WIND SHEAR. STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY NUMEROUS...STRUGGLING AGAINST THE            
CAP...BUT FEEL THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF                      
INTERSTATE 44. THESE MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD               
FRONT ZIPS UP WITH THE DRYLINE ON ITS WAY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH            
STORM CHANCES WELL INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOISTURE               
WILL QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH TO OUR            
WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS             
SHOULD THE MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE.                                               
MODELS DIVERGE MUCH MORE AFTER SATURDAY. GENERAL TREND LOOKS WARMER             
AND DRIER...WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN STATES.              
SUBTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...THOUGH. FEW             
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  91  62 /   0  10  30  30                              
HOBART OK         92  71  94  62 /  10  20  20  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  95  68 /   0  10  20  20                              
GAGE OK           92  67  90  56 /  20  20  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     89  74  90  61 /   0  10  30  20                              
DURANT OK         90  71  90  72 /   0  10  20  30                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.                                            
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR TXZ083>090.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/11                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
437 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...ANTICIPATING IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS...ESPECIALLY FOR             
JUNE. SURFACE LOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER MONTANA...NORTHEAST                     
WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NORTH OF THE TRACK OF                       
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES. THOUGH             
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO HAVE AN                 
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE...LIFT...AND                     
WINDS...WILL DETERMINE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.              
THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO MOST OTHER MODELS                 
INCLUDING THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED FASTER                   
EASTWARD TRACK OF BOTH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND SECOND MID                
LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH KANSAS. THE             
00Z NAM APPEARED A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SHOWING             
A SEEMING TENDENCY FOR THAT MODEL TO HANG ON TO CLOSED UPPER LOWS               
LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SOLUTION FEATURED A STRONGER LOW              
LEVEL JET...AND POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.              
THE PREFERRED MODEL...HOWEVER...WAS ACTUALLY THE 18Z GFS...A BIT                
UNUSUAL...BUT THAT MODEL FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH THE 00Z                        
ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND ECMWF. WHILE WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE                
SEEM A CERTAINTY...THE 18Z GFS AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ARE NOT QUITE            
AS SCARY AS THE NAM. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO GO WITH A STRONGLY WORDED               
WIND ADVISORY RATHER THAN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL               
FOR GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH             
UNIDIRECTIONALLY LINKED FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ANY SEVERE             
WINDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                     
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY.                                                           
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS BEING HAMPERED              
BY THE DRYING EFFECTS OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH REACHED              
THE GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE MORE SENSE...WITH THE               
TRULY TROPICAL AIR NOT REACHING THIS LATITUDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY. WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP DURING THE               
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE            
WEST TONIGHT...WHERE SOME COOLING AND LIFT OCCUR WITHIN THE CAPPING             
LAYER.                                                                          
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED...HOWEVER...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ON                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CYCLONE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS WILL DRAG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS. IMPROVING SURFACE            
MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT APPEARS TO SUPPORT A BREAKABLE CAP            
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL              
WIND SHEAR. STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY NUMEROUS...STRUGGLING AGAINST THE            
CAP...BUT FEEL THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF                      
INTERSTATE 44. THESE MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD               
FRONT ZIPS UP WITH THE DRYLINE ON ITS WAY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH            
STORM CHANCES WELL INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOISTURE               
WILL QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH TO OUR            
WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS             
SHOULD THE MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE.                                               
MODELS DIVERGE MUCH MORE AFTER SATURDAY. GENERAL TREND LOOKS WARMER             
AND DRIER...WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN STATES.              
SUBTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...THOUGH. FEW             
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  91  62 /   0  10  30  30                              
HOBART OK         92  71  94  62 /  10  20  20  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  95  68 /   0  10  20  20                              
GAGE OK           92  67  90  56 /  20  20  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     89  74  90  61 /   0  10  30  20                              
DURANT OK         90  71  90  72 /   0  10  20  30                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.                                            
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR TXZ083>090.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/11                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
248 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES                  
WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH               
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING BACK                
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
SATELLITE INDICATES SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS OVER THE CWA THIS                      
MORNING. STRATO CU REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BREAKING UP              
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. A MID LEVEL DECK               
IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND CIRRUS               
FROM CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA HAS DRIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST                  
PENNSYLVANIA.                                                                   
EXPECT THESE CLOUD LAYERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. RAINFALL                 
YESTERDAY WILL AID TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND CEILINGS AROUND 500 FEET              
MSL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                               
A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH RISING                  
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB TODAY. THIS WILL HELP SQUASH THE CURRENT CLOUD                
COVER AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL AREAS FROM NOON ON.                 
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB MOVE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT ONLY A 10-15 KT MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON                     
ALTHOUGH TERRAIN MAY ENHANCE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS.                             
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE CURRENT /+6 TO +8C/ TO                        
/+15 TO +17C/ BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID                
WARM UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER PLENTY OF HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE              
SUNSHINE. EXPECT ABOUT A 10F RISE FROM TODAYS HIGHS TO THURSDAY                 
HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM OVERHEAD TO THE               
ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND OR              
LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A DECENT TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST              
U.S. TO A FLATTER ZONAL PATTERN AND THEN A BUILDING RIDGE BY EARLY              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
WEAK RIDGE GIVES WAY TO RETURNING MOIST SW FLOW BY THU AS LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS WEAKENS AND LIFTS               
NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.              
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THU INTO FRI AS TONGUE OF 850MB               
TEMPS NEAR +20C POKES INTO THE REGION. CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR               
FRI AFTN INTO SAT AS MOISTURE PEAKS AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
MOVES THROUGH. BY SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AT THE                
SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
POST-FRONTAL STRATO-CU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS             
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAV CIGS APPEAR TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THIS REGION               
BASED ON LATEST RUC DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM JST SOUTH THRU                   
GARRETT CO MARYLAND. THUS...WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT                 
JST THRU ARND DAWN. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN                     
KEEPING CIGS ABOVE 3KFT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.                  
LOW CIGS AND FOG OVR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX                 
OUT BTWN 11-13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS        
AT THE TOP OF THE BLYR AROUND 20KTS SHOULD SUPPORT OCNL 15+KT                   
GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING AT MOST AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN...DIMINISHING             
TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                                 
FAIR WEATHER/VFR SHUD LAST THRU AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY AS WE SEE                 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT              
COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING                  
LOWERING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO                  
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                            
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TYBURSKI                                                             
NEAR TERM...TYBURSKI                                                            
SHORT TERM...TYBURSKI                                                           
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
123 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ITS                 
GRIP ON THE REGION...LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM MID                
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY             
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
FROST IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CLOUD               
COVER IS...SO FAR...RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.                 
THE TROUBLE IS THAT THE WINDS ARE SLACKENING WITH LESS MIXING                   
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THERE ARE A FEW CALM OBS IN THE                 
NORTHWEST ALREADY. IT MAY CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 4 OR 5                
AM...AND THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A LITTLE FROST. DEWPOINTS                 
ARE AROUND 40-42F RIGHT NOW. SO THE BALANCE SHEET COMES UP WITH                 
EQUAL REASONS FOR AND AGAINST POSTING AN ADVISORY...AND I WILL                  
DEFAULT TO PERSISTENCE. NO ADV FOR TONIGHT.                                     
OTHER TROUBLE IS THE LINGERING UPSLOPE/CYCLONIC FLOW IS STILL                   
CAPABLE OF MAKING SOME SPRINKLES...BUT ONLY IN THE LAURELS.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
A RELATIVELY COOL DAY IN STORE AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PASSES               
THROUGH AND HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR                   
SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE                 
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.                                  
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF...WE WILL START              
TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A FEW DAYS OF NICE WEATHER. DESPITE BEING                 
BELOW NORMAL...BRIGHT SUN...LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL                   
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE FOR EARLY JUNE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A DECENT TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST              
U.S. TO A FLATTER ZONAL PATTERN AND THEN A BUILDING RIDGE BY EARLY              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
WEAK RIDGE GIVES WAY TO RETURNING MOIST SW FLOW BY THU AS LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS WEAKENS AND LIFTS               
NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.              
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THU INTO FRI AS TONGUE OF HIGHER              
850MB TEMPS MOVES IN. CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR FRI INTO SAT AS                
MOISTURE PEAKS AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BY                      
SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL               
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
POST-FRONTAL STRATO-CU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS             
EARLY THIS MORNING. MAV CIGS APPEAR TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THIS REGION               
BASED ON LATEST RUC DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM JST SOUTH THRU                   
GARRETT CO MARYLAND. THUS...WILL GO WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT                 
JST THRU ARND DAWN. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN                     
KEEPING CIGS ABOVE 3KFT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.                  
LOW CIGS AND FOG OVR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX                 
OUT BTWN 11-13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS        
AT THE TOP OF THE BLYR AROUND 20KTS SHOULD SUPPORT OCNL 15+KT                   
GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING AT MOST AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN...DIMINISHING             
TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                                 
FAIR WEATHER/VFR SHUD LAST THRU AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY AS WE SEE                 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT              
COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING                  
LOWERING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO                  
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                            
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE/RXR                                                          
NEAR TERM...DANGELO                                                             
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1229 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING                
JUST SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC ALSO           
DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY                    
MORNING...WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH WITH WHAT IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN                
THAT AREA. WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS FOR THE             
SONORA AREA...BUT EXPECT THE LOWER CEILING TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH               
AND WEST OF THE OTHER TAF SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW                   
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS PICK UP AS A              
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE               
INCREASED WINDS IN THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH                       
DECREASING WINDS AROUND SUNSET.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
A SURFACE TROF WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE                      
AREA TOMORROW BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS               
WILL PREVAIL.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
STORM COMPLEX THAT WENT THROUGH CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES LAST               
NIGHT...HAS MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE WINDS                   
WERE BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                   
MOVED INTO EAST TEXAS. A FEWW CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING IN THE BIG                
COUNTRY...FROM SWEETWATER TO ABILENE. MAY POSSIBLY PUT AN ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORM IN AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO 7 PM.                                 
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT AS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL                
SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY                          
MOUNTAINS...INDUCING A LEE TROUGH. 850 MB WINDS PICK UP LATE                    
TONIGHT BETWEEN 6Z-12Z (1-7AM) TO 35-40 KTS...AND MAY SEE GUSTY                 
WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LITTLE HIGHER              
WITH WINDS MIXING THE SURFACE. MAY ONLY FALL TO NEAR 70 AT ABILENE              
AND SAN ANGELO...WITH MID/UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH IN THE RIVER                  
VALLEYS.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NEARLY 8 MB                   
ACROSS CWA WHICH USUALLY BRINGS THE BIG COUNTRY CLOSE TO WIND                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA...25 TO 35 MPH...WITH 20 TO 30 FURTHER SOUTH IN               
THE CONCHO VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 40                 
MPH IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE               
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT. AS FOR                 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WILL NOT MENTION WEDNESDAY.  WRF MODEL                   
CAPES DO GET TO 2000-2800 J/KG WEDNESDAY...BUT CAP SHOULD HOLD.                 
IF ABILENE DOES NOT HIT 90 DEGREES TODAY...IT IS 89 AT 3 PM.                    
.IT SHOULD GO OVER ON WEDNESDAY. THE AVERAGE DATE THAT ABILENE                  
HITS 90 IS APRIL 7. ABILENE IS IN RECORD TERRITORY...WITH THE                   
PREVIOUS LATEST IN THE YEAR IT HIT 90...ON MAY 31 1900.                         
TEMPERATURE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1886.                                            
THURSDAY...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY                           
LOOSER...AND WINDS LOWER BY ABOUT 5 MPH. WRF MODEL IS NOW BRINGING              
THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY FRIDAY NOON BEFORE                   
PUSHING IT BACK NORTH. WONT ADD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES JUST YET IN                
THE THE CONCHO VALLEY...BUT WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                         
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DRYLINE              
SETTING UP OVER WEEKEND...MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE                   
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  72  94  68  90 /  10  10  10  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  73  96  71  93 /  10  10  10  10                                    
JUNCTION  73  94  73  92 /  10  10  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
230 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE                
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A LOT OF INGREDIENTS ARE COMING                   
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE            
OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE                
REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A PASSING THERMAL RIDGE WILL                  
PRODUCE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000              
J/KG. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA               
PANHANDLE WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO                  
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RUC IS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW            
TO SWING NORTHEAST...AND PERHAPS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE                  
DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WINDS WILL BE THE THREATS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...THOUGH             
DAMAGING WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE. THERE            
IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SUPERCELLS               
JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHERE THE 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IS               
MAXIMIZED AND THE LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3KFT WILL BE. ATTM               
THIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH                  
DAKOTA PLAINS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS WILL CONTINUE              
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SUPERCELLS PIVOT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.               
THE TIMING WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND IF IT                  
BEGINS TO STALL OUT. EVENTUALLY THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WIND DOWN                
TONIGHT...BUT THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE                   
NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WYOMING AREAS WHERE WRAP AROUND                      
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE.                                                    
TOMORROW THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA AND                    
CONTINUE BRINGING WRAP AROUND RAIN TO THE AREA. WITH THE TIGHTENING             
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 30-40             
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THIS VERY WELL COULD BE A HIGH WARNING               
EVENT...BUT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED                       
TONIGHT...WILL NOT OVERLOAD THE FORECAST WITH HEADLINES. WILL LET               
EVENING SHIFT ADD IT LATE TONIGHT OR THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT ADD IT IN              
THE MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HILLS AND FOOTHILLS WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS               
EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE UPPER LOW                
WILL PHASE IN WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND              
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIP WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING. A              
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP IN THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY IN THE                 
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.                                                     
EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING                 
THROUGH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.             
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER             
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN            
CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK BRINGING A BETTER                 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR                 
SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY...CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE                
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME             
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RTES WITH THE                 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THIS AFT AND EVE WILL BE TWEB RTES 260            
(KRAP-KBIS) AND 315 (KRAP-KPIR)...THOUGH SVR WX WILL ALSO BE                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NE WYO AND THE BLKHLS. EXPECT IFR              
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM KRAP WESTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY               
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE KRAP AREA...WITH RA AND                
AREAS OF BR. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY              
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN              
     BLACK HILLS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND BUTTE COUNTY.                       
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/SCHILD                                                                 
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1030 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL            
WYOMING WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN WYOMING                
WHERE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. OBS ACROSS SOUTHEAST                 
WYOMING SHOWING A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S                
BEHIND IT. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO             
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ENTERING                       
SOUTHWESTERN SD BY MID AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF             
IT. THE RUC IS ALSO SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE DEEPENING             
SURFACE LOW WHICH CENTERS IT ACROSS WESTERN SD BY 00Z. STORMS WILL              
FIRE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILLS AND THROUGH THE WRN SD             
PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE....THEN DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE. WITH               
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG...HAIL WILL BE A BIG THREAT...ALONG             
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS WITH POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG THE            
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES               
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE 0-1KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE                    
MAXIMIZED. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE EXACT TRACK OF            
THE LOW WILL BE...BUT THE RUC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING FAR NW              
SD TO HAVE THE STRONGEST 0-1KM SHEAR AND LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS OF ABOUT            
3KFT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WILL CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE              
BY 00Z AS THE LINE APPROACHES CENTRAL SD. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE            
EAST OF THE CWA BY 02Z OR 03Z...BUT STORMS PIVOTING AROUND THE                  
NORTHERN END OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS FAR NW SD             
A COUPLE HOURS LONGER.                                                          
MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CTRL               
SD...AND ADD MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [343 AM MDT]...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW                
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH INVERTED TROUGH             
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD                   
OVERNIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS             
ARE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH.                                                    
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS               
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLE WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN            
HIGH PLAINS...PRODUCING ABUNDANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.                
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE                
MORNING...WITH A DRY LINE CROSSING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY              
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE                 
EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM THE                 
BLACK HILLS...NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WHERE             
BEST SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. HAIL...STRONG WINDS            
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY               
CREEPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AND                
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO EXIST.               
THOUGHTS ON EVOLUTION BEGIN WITH INITIAL CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE              
BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH                     
NORTHEAST QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.            
STRONGER STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS...WITH STORMS                 
PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.                                        
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT INTO              
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION               
NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST            
WINDS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH                 
DAKOTA...ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.                   
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE VERY STRONG...BORDERING ON HIGH WIND                   
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT HAVE ELECTED NOT TO POST HIGH WIND WATCH                 
CONSIDERING THE MORE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER DAY.                               
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS              
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY                         
FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WARMER AND DRIER                 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                                            
EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A PARADE OF WEAK               
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CREATING            
A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED MODELS             
SHOWING ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                 
AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON             
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE            
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RTES WITH THE GREATEST               
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THIS AFT AND EVE WILL BE TWEB RTES 260                     
(KRAP-KBIS) AND 315 (KRAP-KPIR)...THOUGH SVR WX WILL ALSO BE                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NE WYO AND THE BLKHLS. EXPECT MVFR             
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER NE               
WYO INTO WRN SD WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR TOMORROW.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                          
     AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...             
     AND BUTTE COUNTY.                                                          
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/SCHILD                                                                 
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
534 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS               
THE CWA TODAY AND DEW POINTS ARE GRADUALLY RISING. UPPER RIDGE                  
PERSISTS OVER THE CWA WITH LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS AVAILABLE.                     
HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO                
LOWER 90S...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDEX                   
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND MINUS TWO AND CAPES SHOULD BE                  
NEAR 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE. RIDGE              
GETS FLATTENED ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.                
WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY LOOK OKAY. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS PUSH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR                 
WEST...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH                 
GA. GFS SHOWS DRYING ACROSS NORTH GA ON SATURDAY...BUT NAM KEEPS                
THE CWA MOIST. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE                   
ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY AND               
FRIDAY AND A BLEND OF THE FWC/MAV LOOKS OKAY.                                   
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDICATED TO BE PAST THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY               
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THAT AREA.                         
HOWEVER...RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION                           
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING             
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...HAVE               
KEPT THE AFTERNOON POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT...WITH ONLY                   
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENINGS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN              
THRUST OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IFR DECK OF             
CLOUDS /CIGS 005 TO 010/ WHICH WILL BE OVER CSG AND MCN BY 12Z.                 
CURRENT NORTHWARD SPEED OF CLOUDS PUTS THEM IN ATL AROUND 13Z...BUT             
FEEL HEATING FROM THE SUN WILL QUICKLY MIX THE CLOUDS OUT SO WILL               
NOT MENTION THEIR PRESENCE OUTSIDE OF THE CSG AND MCN TAFS.                     
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE                 
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO BE MOST                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND            
WARMER ALOFT NAM HAS LESS INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT                   
OCCURRENCE OF AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM AT THE            
SURFACE OR ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAPSE RATES NAM               
HAS IN THE 700 TO 600 HPA LAYER WILL KEEP ME FROM GOING WITH ANY                
MORE THAN VCTS EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO INITIATE...FEEL MCN             
AND CSG HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING. WILL MENTION                  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CB FROM 5K TO 6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 10              
TO 12 KT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS.                                                 
MG                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          93  67  91  68  93 /  20  10  20  20  30                        
ATLANTA         92  70  89  70  90 /  20  10  30  20  30                        
BLAIRSVILLE     84  61  83  64  86 /  20  10  30  20  30                        
CARTERSVILLE    91  66  89  67  89 /  20  10  30  20  30                        
COLUMBUS        94  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  30  10  30                        
GAINESVILLE     90  69  89  68  90 /  20  10  30  20  30                        
MACON           95  72  94  70  96 /  20  10  20  10  30                        
ROME            92  68  92  70  91 /  20  10  30  20  30                        
PEACHTREE CITY  90  65  89  68  91 /  20  10  30  10  30                        
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20   5  30                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
41                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
305 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES                   
REGION OVERNIGHT.                                                               
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALONG WITH                
TH OVERNIGHT INVERSION KEEPING THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS UP                 
OFF THE SURFACE. THE KGLD VAD AND AREA WIND PROFILERS ARE                       
CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-50 KNOTS OF WIND 1-2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS              
TO MIX DOWN AND THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH              
THE WIND SHIFT FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA BY LATE TODAY. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY                      
CRITERIA WINDS TODAY. MODELS ARE WITHIN A FEW KNOTS ON EITHER                   
SIDE OF THE CRITERIA. THE RUC AND NAM ARE DOING MUCH BETTER IDENTIFYING         
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WINS SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE TODAY THAN         
THE GFS AND HAVE GONE WITH WINDS BASED ON THE RUC...BUT MODERATED               
SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND                    
ADVISORY...BUT WILL WORD PRODUCTS STRONGLY AND PASS IT ALONG.                   
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TONIGHT AS A              
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT                 
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY              
WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A          
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY IN                     
RESPONSE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND              
THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH A SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION SATURDAY                         
EVENING...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT               
LATE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT              
AREA EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT                
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE                  
TRI-STATE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS                      
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FOLLOWING SUNSET.  CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LOCKHART                                                                        
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
252 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL                  
KANSAS THIS MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR                        
REPUBLIC...CLOUD...OTTAWA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM.                 
PROFILER WINDS ARE STILL 50KTS AT 925MB AND 70-75KTS AT 850MB.                  
RECENT GUSTS TO 52 MPH MEASURED AT KCNK AND KFRI ASOS AND 48 MPH                
AT KMHK. FEW WEAK RETURNS MOVING THRU JEWELL COUNTY AT TIME. NOT                
EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT WILL               
LEAVE SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAIN FORECAST               
PACKAGE MAY EXTEND EXISTING WIND ADVISORY THRU 18Z.                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE             
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                             
TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH             
AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT.  HIGH WIND WARNING                  
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT WHILE WIND                 
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
AT THIS TIME BOTH WIND HAZARDS EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS SOMETHING OF A LOW            
LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE A                 
COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT MAY PROMPT THE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY            
AND EVEN THE HIGH WIND WARNING PAST 10 PM.  THE FIRST PROBLEM IS HOW            
LOW THE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER                    
NORTHWESTERN NE.  THE RUC IS FORECASTING A 970 MB LOW...THE NAM                 
BRINGS THE LOW DOWN TO ABOUT 976 MB WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE             
LOW AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF 981 MB.  THE NAM AND RUC...POSSIBLY              
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW...DEVELOP A 70 TO 80 KT LOW               
LEVEL JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THE GFS IS MORE                      
CONSERVATIVE AND BRINGS A 60 TO 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE                 
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE THE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF               
THE LLJ BETTER THIS SPRING WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN OVERDOING THINGS              
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AND                
WARNING AT 10 PM.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT ROLE THE LOW LEVEL                    
INVERSION PLAYS ON SURFACE WINDS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE CONTINUING                 
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS THIS EVENING.  IN TERMS OF CONVECTION                   
OVERNIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE DRYLINE TO             
MOVE THROUGH TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP            
AS A VERY STRONG INVERSION SITS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE.  SURFACE             
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AT THIS TIME...SO FEEL DEEPER                
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE IN FRONT OF THE DRYLINE TO HAVE                     
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE             
CWA OVERNIGHT.  HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH                 
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS                
VERY STRONG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT             
THIS TIME.  IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS IT WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE AS             
WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS PRETTY EXTREME FOR JUNE...WITH 60 KTS OF 0-6              
KM SHEAR IN PLACE ALONG THE DRYLINE.                                            
TOMORROW...AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MODELS ARE            
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH IN FRONT OF              
THE DRYLINE.  ASSUMING THIS SOLUTION IS VALID HAVE UPPED                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND                
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TOMORROW.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TRANSPORT OF            
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ON THE POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO ERODE            
THE CAP AT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  AS            
THE CAP ERODES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES ITS QUALITY GENERAL              
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN FRONT OF THE DRYLINE.  WITH SUFFICIENT             
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AIR COULD LIFT ABOVE ANY REMAINING CAP            
AND ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  ONCE AGAIN IF                       
THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THE POSSIBILITY               
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HIGH AS 0-6 KM                 
SHEAR REMAINS AT 60 KTS OR ABOVE.  ASSUMING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
RETURN SBCAPE VALUES TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND              
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG               
RANGE.  WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE                  
DRYLINE DO NOT FEEL A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY               
TOMORROW...BUT WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION             
AND DETERMINE THE NEED OF A CONTINUED WIND ADVISORY.                            
MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRY              
LINE BY 00Z. CURRENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 BY 00Z            
FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND                
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE             
EVENING. DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING                
HOURS BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING DEW POINT             
GRADIENT TO REFLECT DRY LINE PLACEMENT SOUTH OF I-35.                           
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT             
INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS. RETURN FLOW ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING THE FRONT AND MOISTURE              
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A            
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING             
AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO NEAR THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY LATE                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA              
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT            
FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                          
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE              
MAINLY A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND            
THEN TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY 00Z TUESDAY.                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH               
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION              
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THE SMALL WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.              
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN             
EASTERN KANSAS ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING CAP MAY INHIBIT STORMS.                   
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE 70S TEMPERATURES WILL WARM                
BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY THEN NEAR 90 ON WEDNESDAY.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS RELATE TO WINDS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.  WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG                 
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (AROUND 30 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE             
WINDS) WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  IF A STRONG                
INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE              
ADDED TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES.  AFTER SUNRISE A DRYLINE MOVING WEST             
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH KMHK SITE.  THIS WILL BRING ABOUT             
A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT WINDS AROUND               
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST.  IN KTOP AND KFOE THE DRYLINE WAS                   
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER THE CURRENT 18Z FORECAST WINDOW...BUT            
MAY MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME.  LOW CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER KTOP AND KFOE DURING THE LATE MORNING             
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO                  
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE                
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM                     
THURSDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.                                    
$$                                                                              
STARK                                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED                  
ELEVATED STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 08-10Z AND MVFR CEILINGS              
DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                                                    
A VERY STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...IF ANY STORMS                
CAN DEVELOP THEY MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND                
SPEEDS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DECENT PRESSURE FALLS                
TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A RESULT...THE SALINA              
TAF SITE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THOSE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR A              
SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR                
MVFR CEILINGS 1-2KFT DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS GOOD MOISTURE               
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. THE LONGER                  
DURATION OF THESE CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER THE                 
CHANUTE TAF SITE SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT PASS THROUGH THAT                  
REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE               
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW                
MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.                      
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR               
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS REGION IS REALLY DECOUPLING AND              
WE DO NOT SEE FORSEE THE LOW LEVEL JET PLAYING MUCH OF AN                       
INFLUENCE ON THE WIND SPEEDS...DUE TO A STRONGER INVERSION IN                   
PLACE.                                                                          
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL BE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WANT TO              
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE WINDS DO. THINKING OF NIXING THE HIGH WIND                
WARNING IF WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT MORE AT RUSSELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP                
WIND ADVISORY GOING EVERYWHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MAY              
BE ABLE TO DROP PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF I-135 OUT OF ADVISORY              
TOWARD 09Z/4AM...AS WINDS SLACKEN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.                 
WILL WAIT AND SEE.                                                              
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS DRYLINE               
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK EXTREMELY STOUT CAP.                
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY                       
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT AND                    
DECENT MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                     
HOWEVER...CAP WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...SO NOT ANTICIPATING                    
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. IF ANYTHING CAN GET GOING THOUGH...SHEAR AND               
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD MIXED LAYER WHICH IS                  
PROVIDING GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS            
A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF            
THE FORECAST SITES EXCEPT FOR CHANUTE WHERE WE MENTIONED 25-30KTS.              
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM TONIGHT...DUE TO            
SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REACH A HUTCHINSON TO                 
SALINA LINE BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT WILL ONLY SHIFT THE WIND TO THE                
SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS             
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS              
SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.                    
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE WINDS...CONVECTIVE              
AND SEVERE CHANCES.                                                             
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OVER WYOMING WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING EAST AFFECTING KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SPEEDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.  A                   
DRYLINE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.                         
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT               
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER.  OVERNIGHT...WINDS INCREASE AT 850 MB TO AN                     
INCREDIBLE /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ 70-75 KNOTS.  NAM-WRF/RUC/WSWRF              
ALL SHOW INSTABILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE              
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  ADMITTEDLY THERE MAY BE A              
FEW HOURS WHERE WE DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE OVERALL             
SENTIMENT IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AND THAT WILL BE THE MESSAGE.            
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE STRONG                 
MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.            
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE GOING TO REMAIN A DIFFICULT TASK            
TO DEAL WITH.  THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/WSWRF DO             
AGREE IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT             
THE CAP AND WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  RUC              
AND ICT-WRF-ARW16KM DO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF.  AGAIN                       
THOUGH...CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.                                     
THAT SAID...THE CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALONG THE DRY LINE               
FOR IT TO SURVIVE.  STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT ARE NEARLY                 
PARALLEL TO THE 6KM WIND VECTOR HAVE PRECLUDED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE DRY                      
LINE...WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE AND BACK SOMEWHAT LOCALLY.                      
THUS...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE                   
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GOING                  
FORECAST HAS.  WILL KEEP THAT INTACT.                                           
THURSDAY THE DRY LINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND BE IN A LESSER CAPPED            
ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAY             
BE GOING EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS                
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES             
/AND THE CAP WEAKENS/.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING THE              
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  WITH            
0-6KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS...SHOULD BE A STRONG SUPERCELL DAY.              
0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR            
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS /SIG TORS/ RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND             
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY.                                              
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND LESS                 
ACTIVE.                                                                         
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS              
SATURDAY.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONG NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS NOTED            
IN THE 315K LAYER...SUGGESTING A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS TO             
DEVELOP.  THIS AXIS RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPAGATES                  
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER                    
PROBABILITIES OF .1 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENT                 
FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED               
DUE TO CONSISTENCY THRESHOLDS...BUT THINK HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS A HIGHER               
CHANCE IN REALITY.                                                              
MOREOVER...THE LEE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITSELF ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE              
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT              
WOULD BE THAT WE ARE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL            
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES /BECAUSE OF AN INCREASING CAP/ BUT            
AN INCREASING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES.  HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE            
FORECAST DATABASE.                                                              
COOK                                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
18Z TAFS...WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT               
ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INCREASE SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
TOWARD MORNING. CAP IS STRONG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS               
AFTERNOON...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE               
TO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY...GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER                        
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT KCNU TO BE PERHAPS MORE GUSTY                
THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY.                                                         
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    70  90  59  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      68  88  54  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          69  88  54  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        70  89  56  77 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  91  62  78 /  10  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         63  84  47  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      63  86  49  77 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          67  87  52  78 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       68  88  53  77 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  89  63  79 /  10  40  40  10                                
CHANUTE         73  88  58  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
IOLA            73  88  57  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  88  60  78 /  10  60  40  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-                   
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
414 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV AND 400MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF            
EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES.                 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF TROUGH IS SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A                   
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 980MB. LATEST RADAR IMAGRY SHOWS A LINE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCHED FROM KBIS THROUGH EASTERN                   
LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVECTION IS TIED CLOSELY TO 850MB FGEN REGION.                 
-TSRA/S WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST...WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED            
EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.                                                
TODAY IS TURNING OUT TO BE QUITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. PRIOR TO               
THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND                   
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS OF FA. OPTED TO NOT INCLUDED DELTA AND                  
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...OWING TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLY ON TODAY...CAPPED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT MIXING              
OF STRONG WIND AND WIND GUSTS. BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE                   
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP. STARTED WIND ADVISORY IN                
WEST A BIT SOONER AS MORE HEATING IS EXPECTED FOR THEM. HIGHS IN                
THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE WEST. WITH A RARE HIGH RISK                 
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE              
VERY ACTIVE. HIGH SHEAR/CAPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE                 
ASCENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...+50KTS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS AROUND                 
500-700METERS BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR ACTIVE SEVERE                     
WEATHER PATTERN TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED               
TORNADOES ACROSS THE FA EXISTS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND                   
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED TOR POSSIBILITY IN                 
THE HWO.                                                                        
BY FRIDAY AFTN PRECIP. ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE                
EXITING TO THE EAST. DID TWEAK WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIME...BUT DIDN/T              
CHANGE MUCH. WANTED TO END PRECIP. EARLIER BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED               
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. BY 18Z FRIDAY THE              
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF HERE...ALLOWING FOR COOL AIR TO FILTER INTO                
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL FEEL NICE AFTER THURSDAYS SEVERE                      
WEATHER.                                                                        
THEREAFTER MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND TO            
AN EXTENT REMAINS OVER THE FA WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO GOOD           
REASON TO CHANGE EXISTING WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME LEFT CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN FA. THE NAM IS             
MORE BULLISH AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY SUNDAY AND BRINGS A WEAK           
S/W INTO THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS RIDGE              
IN PLACE MORE OR LESS.                                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB...DLH                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...                                    
A STRONG LOW PRES OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN                               
DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS                
AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO                     
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH 30 TO 40KT GUSTS                  
MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME GUSTS IN THIS               
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1            
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE                 
REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN                    
STATIONARY THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...A 29.6 INCH LOW CENTER WILL                 
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND MON.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
06Z TAFS REFLECT EXPECTED SFC WARM FROPA EARLY THU. SHRA/ISOLD TS IN            
ADVANCE OF WARM FNT WL IMPACT CMX THRU 08Z BEFORE H85 WARM FNT                  
SHIFTS TO THE N AND CAPPING ALL BUT ENDS ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THREAT.              
ALTHOUGH EARLIER FCST INDICATED CIGS WOULD LOWER TO MVFR RANGE                  
OVERNGT IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT...DRY AIR TO THE S AS SHOWN ON 00Z               
GRB SDNG HAS BKN UP THE LO CLD THAT HAD BEEN TO THE S. SO VFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE. EXPECT PD OF LLWS AT CMX WITH MORE            
SFC ESE FLOW UNDER WARM FNTL INVRN/INCRSG NOCTURNAL LLJ. PASSAGE OF             
SFC WARM FNT TMRW MRNG...DIURNAL HTG...AND STRONG SW FLOW AHD OF                
POWERHOUSE LO PRES MOVING NEWD TO THE NW OF THE CWA WL CAUSE WINDS              
TO GUST AOA 30 KTS. APRCH OF COLD FNT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TS LATE IN             
THE DAY/EVNG BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WSW                 
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT                   
/11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-010>012-084-085.                         
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT                
EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR MIZ002-009.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
MARINE/AVAITION...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
132 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED THRU THE               
PERIOD. WIND SHEAR A BIG CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL              
JET DEVELOPS UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40 TO 50 KNOTS RIGHT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. HENCE            
WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR ALL TAF SITES DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN                 
SURFACE FLOW ALSO EXPECTED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS               
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING FOR WINDY                    
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS             
VERY STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT             
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE             
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY OVERNIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1016 PM JUN 6                                                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING                    
MICHIGAN. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM LOW IS ALSO                   
APPROACHING MICHIGAN. LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHRA CONTINUES TO              
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING INTO WRN                 
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN                  
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW HITS OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE              
SHOWERS AND SOME DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND            
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. 00Z APX SOUNDING TELLS THE TALE...SHOWING A             
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 550 MB. WILL NEED TO             
REARRANGE WX AND POPS GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON             
LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO THE ENTIRE CWA             
THRU 09Z AND THEN CUT BACK POPS TO ONLY NE SECTIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND             
12Z. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 09Z AND                
CHANCE POPS FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THRU THAT TIME...AND THEN                    
DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR NE SECTIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM JUN 6                                               
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A WARM FRONT EMANATING                
FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...EASTERN IOWA AND                
WESTERN ILLINOIS.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS                
WARM FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE LEADING                
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                
CLOSER TO HOME TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S            
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER) WITH AN                    
ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU FIELD...MOST PREVALENT OVER NE LOWER WITH HELP              
FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.                                         
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER                
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.                           
TONIGHT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH AN ELEVATED            
WARM FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 45-55 KT            
SW-NE LLJ WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING OVER WISCONSIN AND UPPER              
MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE ON THE                
NOSE OF THIS LLJ ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT THE            
WIDTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHWEST LOWER              
AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH MORE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING                      
DEVELOPING OVER NE LOWER THAT COULD PRODUCE SCT ACTIVITY.  EXPECT               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE NE WITH THE                 
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EASTERN UPPER LOOKS IN A FAVORABLE             
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  AS FOR SEVERE                           
POTENTIAL...STRONG 850MB THETAE ADVECTION WITH 850MB WINDS                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF               
50-60KTS SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ORGANIZATION              
THAT COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ON THE OTHERHAND...ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER               
REACHING A MAX AROUND 500 J/KG AROUND 09Z...WHILE ONLY AROUND 200               
J/KG AT PLN AND TVC.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE              
FROM 10KFT AT 00Z TO 14.5KFT BY 12Z WITH THE WAA.  IF ROTATION CAN              
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN UPDRAFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED                 
STORM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN             
UPPER.                                                                          
TOMORROW...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA STRONG 50KT LLJ OVER THE             
850MB FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE NE TO START THE MORNING...WHILE             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LAGS BEHIND SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.              
WAS THINKING A THREAT WAS THERE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP JUST                
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK                 
ALONG IT...AND A SIMILAR STORY PLAYED OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE                 
PLAINS WHERE SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING                      
ALOFT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST DURING THE MORNING.  AIR                
ALOFT REALLY GETS JUICY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR              
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.  850MB/700MB TEMPS SOAR TO 16-18C/10-12C              
BY THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MIXING...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80F                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR 90 ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF                    
NORTHERN LOWER. DESPITE THE WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS NEAR THE                    
SURFACE...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A DOMINANT CAP BETWEEN                
700-800MB WITH NEARLY 200 J/KG OF SBCIN.  ADDITIONALLY...MAX WINDS              
IN THE MIXING LAYER REACH 50 KTS...WHICH WILL OVERWHELM LAKE BREEZES            
FROM DEVELOPING THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO OVERCOME THE                    
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT                
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING AND WILL               
LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE. COLD FRONT REACHES THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRI...AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE            
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                  
TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SVR             
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE OVERRIDING PROBLEM OF THE DAY.                  
MODELS...GFS STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE UPPER TROF ON             
FRIDAY VERY WELL. IT IS QUITE A BIT FASTER TO MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU            
THE REGION. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING THE              
UPPER TROF OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...IS PREFERRED.                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...IN SHORT...SVR WX/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT               
STILL LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL.                                                        
TO START THE EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL LIE FROM WESTERN WI TO             
EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY. WE ARE STILL CAPPED OVER HERE...BUT COLD ADVECTION AT                 
700MB AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THAT CAP TOWARD              
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL               
NOT BE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT            
DECOUPLING...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED AND LIMITING                 
SURFACE TEMP FALLS. A MID 70S OVER LOWER 60S SURFACE PARCEL STILL               
CORRESPONDS TO MLCAPE OF 500-750J/KG. NOT ANYTHING EXTREME...BUT                
RESPECTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.           
THE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE NOT MARGINAL IN THE SLIGHTEST. 850MB              
WINDS 50-60KT...AND 500MB WINDS NEAR 80KT. EVEN WITH LARGELY                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES 60-70KT. WITH DRY               
MID LEVELS UPSTREAM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SERIAL DERECHO.                
STORM EVOLUTION IS A FITFUL THING...SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE                 
FAVORED UPSTREAM...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MULTICELL LINEAR                   
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THAT IS NOT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED                     
(PRIMARILY NON-SUPERCELLULAR) TOR. REMEMBER THAT OUR TORNADO NEAR               
CADILLAC LAST OCTOBER WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...ON A BOWING              
LINE SEGMENT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN            
HAZARD.                                                                         
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR. WILL FINE-TUNE            
TIMING...PARTICULARLY SLOWING ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE EAST. LIKELY             
POPS IN ORDER OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. SVR THREAT                
WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR LAKE MI COAST AROUND                      
MIDNIGHT...AND TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH TIME. WILL DIMINISH POPS                
LATE IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN.              
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN             
THE MORNING...AND BE EAST OF US BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH               
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS                
SMALL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EXTREME SE                
CORNER (SOUTH OF HARRISVILLE) THRU EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WRAPAROUND              
MOISTURE MAY PLAGUE EASTERN UPPER MI...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING               
UPPER TROF...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. MAX TEMPS              
WILL RANGE FROM 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SE.                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...QUIET WX ON TAP AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY               
GOES THRU EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS               
PERIOD WILL RACE ACROSS CANADA...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.                       
INSTEAD...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE            
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR                      
SKIES...AND A COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.            
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
REST OF THE FORECAST...HUDSON BAY LOW...AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN CONUS...WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.               
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WX DRY AND                 
COMFORTABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL              
BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD. PACIFIC ENERGY POUNDING INTO THE WESTERN                
STATES WILL ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE LAKES              
REGION AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A STORMY PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGGED DIRECTLY            
OVERHEAD...OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS SMALL. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED              
FORECAST DRY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.                                
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
301 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL              
CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SC DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT               
RAPIDLY NORTH INTO FA THIS MORNING AND WILL HELP KEEP WINDS BELOW               
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO                    
AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER.                                           
NAM/WRF AND LATEST RUC DATA SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE              
WESTERN EDGE OF FA THIS AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF OSAGE/PAWNEE                   
COUNTIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THIS                
MORNING WITH DEW-POINTS RISING TO NEAR 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG               
DRY LINE. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION                 
WILL BE ALONG DRY LINE AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY                 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED                  
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED                   
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING A TORNADO                 
THREAT.                                                                         
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                    
STORMS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER               
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE                
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES SOUTH. SEVERE THREAT                  
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND                      
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.                                                     
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT                    
LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE                
NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER HIGH. KEPT FORECAST DRY WED/THU OF NEXT                  
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER REGION...OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO               
00Z MEX GUIDANCE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   90  64  79  61 /  10  60  20  20                                          
FSM   90  72  82  67 /  10  50  50  20                                          
MLC   89  70  81  66 /  10  50  50  20                                          
BVO   89  61  78  58 /  20  40  10  20                                          
FYV   86  67  76  62 /  10  70  30  20                                          
BYV   87  66  76  60 /  10  70  30  20                                          
MKO   88  66  78  65 /  10  60  30  20                                          
MIO   89  62  77  59 /  10  70  10  20                                          
F10   89  66  79  64 /  10  50  30  20                                          
HHW   90  74  86  72 /  10  20  50  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...10                                                                 
LONG TERM....12                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...REST OF TONIGHT                                                       
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO FORECAST WITHIN PAST HOUR. CUT POPS                     
DRASTICALLY OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SD. KEPT                 
HIGHER POPS GOING ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES WHERE WRAP                   
AROUND PRECIP IS STILL FALLING. LEFT MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL                
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE TOR WATCH 356 REMAINS IN                  
EFFECT. WILL MONITOR FOR PROBABLE EARLY CANCELLATION OF WATCH.                  
STILL LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WATERTOWN                
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL                       
REMAINING. UPDATED WCN OUT AS WELL AS ZFP.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                       
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                   
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE                        
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LEADING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE                  
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE                       
CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA.                
STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND WARM AND                  
MOIST NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. AN UPPER                  
LEVEL 100KT JET WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO                      
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEFT-EXIT QUADRANT NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL                   
DAKOTAS BY 00-03Z AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 06Z                           
TONIGHT HELPING ENHANCE THE UVM THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW               
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT WILL DEEPEN WHICH WILL                   
ALLOW FOR STRONG FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RUC ALSO                
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO 50-70KT LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
DAKOTAS BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE STRONG               
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL HOVER               
AROUND 40KT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL SD APPROACHING                 
60KT BY 06Z TONIGHT. ONLY DRAWBACK TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS                 
STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM                
KABR AND KUNR INDICATED AROUND 300-500 J/KG OF CINH...AS THE                    
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES CAA IN THE MID LEVELS IS                      
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ALSO...ANY REMAINING                
CAP SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ERODED DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPWARD               
MOTION EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                               
AS THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA...A                       
TRANSITION TO MORE OF SQUALL LINE TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED WITH                 
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT TOWARD LATE EVENING                
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND                  
PROFILE ALONG WITH STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR SHOW THE THREAT FOR                       
TORNADOES DOES EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER IT IS THE                  
GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE MORE               
SUPERCELLULAR TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.                                  
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM                 
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH                 
DURING THE DAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS                 
FRONT...WITH A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON                  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. H85 WINDS OF 45-50 KT MAY TRANSLATE               
DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OR                   
HIGHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE SYSTEM EXITING SLIGHTLY                     
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO DID END POPS EARLIER.                      
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO                  
FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE MOSTLY                 
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                                  
SATURDAY MORNING...500MB FLOW PATTERN IS PRIMARILY ZONAL OVER THE               
CWA...WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST INVOLVING A SLIGHT RIDGE              
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST AND                
THE CWA IS IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH                 
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING AN UPPER LOW               
JUST OFFSHORE THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA              
COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIVING THE LOW INTO THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER              
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH A 500MB LOW OVER                       
NORTHWEST MONTANA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CENTER MORE OVER               
SOUTHEAST CANADA AT THE SAME TIME. THIS IS PRETTY DIVERGENT FROM                
THE 06Z GFS RUN...IN WHICH THE GFS WAS MOVING THE TROUGH THROUGH                
FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. IN THE MEANTIME...A LONG WAVE TROUGH                 
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THIS CWA PRIMARILY IN              
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY                      
MORNING. LEE SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN                  
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. WITH CURRENT PROJECTED             
SLOW/STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                   
REMAINS VIRTUALLY PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY                  
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEAVING EXTENDED CHANCES OF RAIN AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE GFS DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES                
MOVING NORTH DURING THE TIME PERIOD...WHILE KEEPING THE GENERAL                 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE                
MONITORED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES AS THIS COULD BE A SETUP FOR               
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER AREAS OF THE PLAINS.                                    
TEMPERATURE WISE...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY/SUNDAY ON                 
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE                 
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...WARM AND HUMID AIR IS SET TO               
ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEW 12Z GFS MODEL 850MB                        
TEMPERATURE PROGS/MEX GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MUCH WARMER SETUP THAN                 
PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER...SINCE THIS RUN IS MUCH SLOWER AND NOW MORE            
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z CANADIAN MODEL RUNS ON THE               
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST...THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE                     
REALIZED. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK BUT DID NOT GO NEARLY              
AS HIGH AS THE NEW 12Z MEX GUIDANCE...WHICH IS INDICATING HIGHS                 
90-95F ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING               
AROUND 24-26C LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS                
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE                 
REST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.                    
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z.              
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...STRONG               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WELL INTO                 
THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TT                                                                     
SHORT TERM...MA                                                                 
LONG TERM...NE                                                                  
AVIATION...NE                                                                   
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
335 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                       
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                   
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE                        
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LEADING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE                  
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE                       
CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA.                
STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND WARM AND                  
MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. AN UPPER              
LEVEL 100KT JET WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO                      
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEFT-EXIT QUADRANT NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL                   
DAKOTAS BY 00-03Z AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 06Z                           
TONIGHT HELPING ENHANCE THE UVM THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW               
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT WILL DEEPEN WHICH WILL                   
ALLOW FOR STRONG FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RUC ALSO                
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO 50-70KT LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
DAKOTAS BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE STRONG               
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL HOVER               
AROUND 40KT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL SD APPROACHING                 
60KT BY 06Z TONIGHT. ONLY DRAWBACK TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS                 
STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM                
KABR AND KUNR INDICATED AROUND 300-500 J/KG OF CINH...AS THE                    
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES CAA IN THE MID LEVELS IS                      
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. ALSO...ANY REMAINING                
CAP SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ERODED DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPWARD               
MOTION EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                               
AS THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA...A                       
TRANSITION TO MORE OF SQUALL LINE TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED WITH                 
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT TOWARD LATE EVENING                
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND                  
PROFILE ALONG WITH STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR SHOW THE THREAT FOR                       
TORNADOES DOES EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER IT IS THE                  
GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE MORE               
SUPERCELLULAR TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.                                  
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM                 
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH                 
DURING THE DAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS                 
FRONT...WITH A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON                  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. H85 WINDS OF 45-50 KT MAY TRANSLATE               
DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OR                   
HIGHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE SYSTEM EXITING SLIGHTLY                     
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO DID END POPS EARLIER.                      
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO                  
FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE MOSTLY                 
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                                  
SATURDAY MORNING...500MB FLOW PATTERN IS PRIMARILY ZONAL OVER THE               
CWA...WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST INVOLVING A SLIGHT RIDGE              
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST AND                
THE CWA IS IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH                 
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING AN UPPER LOW               
JUST OFFSHORE THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA              
COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIVING THE LOW INTO THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER              
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH A 500MB LOW OVER                       
NORTHWEST MONTANA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CENTER MORE OVER               
SOUTHEAST CANADA AT THE SAME TIME. THIS IS PRETTY DIVERGENT FROM                
THE 06Z GFS RUN...IN WHICH THE GFS WAS MOVING THE TROUGH THROUGH                
FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. IN THE MEANTIME...A LONG WAVE TROUGH                 
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THIS CWA PRIMARILY IN              
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY                      
MORNING. LEE SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN                  
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. WITH CURRENT PROJECTED             
SLOW/STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                   
REMAINS VIRTUALLY PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY                  
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEAVING EXTENDED CHANCES OF RAIN AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE GFS DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES                
MOVING NORTH DURING THE TIME PERIOD...WHILE KEEPING THE GENERAL                 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE                
MONITORED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES AS THIS COULD BE A SETUP FOR               
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER AREAS OF THE PLAINS.                                    
TEMPERATURE WISE...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY/SUNDAY ON                 
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE                 
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...WARM AND HUMID AIR IS SET TO               
ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEW 12Z GFS MODEL 850MB                        
TEMPERATURE PROGS/MEX GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MUCH WARMER SETUP THAN                 
PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER...SINCE THIS RUN IS MUCH SLOWER AND NOW MORE            
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z CANADIAN MODEL RUNS ON THE               
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST...THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE                     
REALIZED. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK BUT DID NOT GO NEARLY              
AS HIGH AS THE NEW 12Z MEX GUIDANCE...WHICH IS INDICATING HIGHS                 
90-95F ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING               
AROUND 24-26C LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS                
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE                 
REST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.                    
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z.              
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...STRONG               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WELL INTO                 
THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT                                                           
LONG TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                            
AVIATION...ECKSTEIN                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
255 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE STORM POTENTIAL...STRONG TO SEVERE...FOR             
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY GRADIENT                 
WINDS EXPECTED FOR TODAY...WIND ADVISORY NEEDED?                                
FIRST...LET/S TACKLE THE GRADIENT WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL             
REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RUC WIND FIELDS INDICATING            
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BY 18Z FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE               
THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION ABOVE 800 MB...WINDS AT 925 MB                
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 45-50 KTS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC VIA            
BUFKIT WOULD BRING AT LEAST 40 KTS TO THE SFC BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS            
SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY THE            
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. SO...FEEL A WIND ADVISORY             
IS WARRANTED FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA...FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO            
THE EVENING.                                                                    
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAIN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT              
NORTHEAST TODAY...GRADUALLY PHASING INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER                  
CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE NORTHWARD              
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE STORM               
SYSTEM/S LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...AND THE             
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF IT EXTENDS INTO WESTERN IA. WIND SHEAR            
CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE AMPLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                          
EVENING...WITH 60+ KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER...NEAR 50 KTS IN 0-3                 
KM...AND 20-25 KTS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. THIS SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS                
ALONG WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL. LOOKING MORE SPECIFICALLY AT THE                
WINDS THEMSELVES...THERE IS SOME VEERING IN THE LOW LAYERS THIS                 
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL BY THE EVENING. DESPITE AN            
INCREASE IN THE SFC DEWPOINTS TODAY...INTO THE MID 60S...THE NEAR               
SFC LAYER LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY PER THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH                
THESE SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE TORNADOES             
WILL BE A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...BELIEVE THAT DAMAGING WINDS               
MAY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. AS FOR INSTABILITY...THE NAM DEVELOPS            
2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE               
SFC FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE GFS            
IS MUCH LESS THOUGH...ABOUT 1000 J/KG LESS...AND THINK THESE MIGHT              
BE CLOSER TO THE MARK. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE CERTAINLY RIPE             
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.             
WHERE SHOULD IT DEVELOP? INITIATION? DRAWBACKS?                                 
AS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM STORMS AHEAD            
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPE AND SFC                    
DEWPOINTS. MORE ON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE. THIS AXIS SHIFTS              
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z...AND AS MENTIONED...LOOKS TO BE            
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI BY 00Z. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO A            
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 800:700 MB...WHICH DOESN/T BREAK               
DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 2-3 PM. THIS WOULD PLACE            
THAT MOISTURE AXIS/PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST                     
AREA...WITH CONVECTION THEREFORE INITIATING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.              
TIMING...AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE                      
CAP...WHICH LOOKS TO BE AFTER 2 PM. WOULD EXPECT RATHER RAPID                   
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE SHEAR CAUSING MANY OF THE STORMS TO SPIN. THE            
SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINE THEN AS IT MOVES INTO                  
EASTERN WI THIS EVENING.                                                        
HOW ABOUT THE DRAWBACKS? ASIDE FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE               
ARE OTHER CONCERNS WITH THE INSTABILITY. FIRST...THE WARM FRONT WAS             
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED NORTH BY NOW...BUT THE CONVECTION             
FROM YESTERDAY PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH ALL               
THIS WELL NORTH NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUST NORTH THIS               
MORNING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT HAS HELD OFF THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF             
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HAS HELPED KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING. SPEAKING OF            
CLOUDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD EXPANSE OF HIGH CLOUDS            
ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREA WILL NEED THE SUN TO HELP DESTABILIZE               
DURING THE DAY...AND REALIZE THE CAPES THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY                 
PRODUCING. THE CURRENT HIGH CLOUDS NEED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE             
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH            
STORMS OVER MN/NORTHWEST IA NEED TO DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE NORTHEAST.             
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TO OCCUR...WITH CLEARER SKIES LEADING TO A                  
RIBBON OF INSTABILITY MAY BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON. ALSO...IF WE AREN/T ABLE TO REALIZE THE HIGH CAPE UNTIL              
EAST OF THE AREA...THE STRONG SHEAR COULD PREVENT STRONG/DEEP                   
UPDRAFTS FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL THE STORMS ARE EAST OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. WHILE THIS WOULD NOT NECESSARILY PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER...IT              
WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST THREAT TO THE EAST.                                    
BOTTOM LINE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...AND ONCE THE CAP GOES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION            
LOOKS PROBABLE. SUPERCELLS LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY...WITH            
THE STORMS THEN LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST BY                
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS HIGH STARTING                  
AFTER 2 PM...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 8 PM.                                       
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE               
HEART OF THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST. WRAP AROUND FLOW              
AROUND THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY              
ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...AND MOSTLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY...A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND BRING A QUIETER...AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION.               
THAT SAID THOUGH...LINGERING MOISTURE AND 850:700 MB LAPSE RATES                
AROUND 7 C/KM COULD SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN WI. SAT            
LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AND SEASONABLE                
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
THE TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION THE                
ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TO MORE                 
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH PRESSES INTO THE WEST                  
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHEN/WHERE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE            
INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER AT THIS MOMENT COMPARED TO             
THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SPIT BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE              
TROUGH AND TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...AN AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY                    
MON...PLACING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE WARMER/MORE             
MOIST RETURN FLOW. SO...ANY VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT GET SPIT             
OUT OF THE TROUGH WOULD HAVE SOME FUEL TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH                  
TIMING ON ANY OF THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT. A BIT               
FARTHER WEST...A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE               
PLAIN STATES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN 500 MB TROUGH. A LOT OF                 
INDECISION WITH THE MODELS WHERE/WHEN THIS FRONT WILL MOVE...LENDING            
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. OVERALL...AFTER THE                   
WEEKEND...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS              
TO RETURN TO THE REGION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN TIGHT PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT AND DEEP STRONG WIND FIELD. CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 30 MPH              
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MN...AND GUSTS NEAR 40 ALREADY OVER WESTERN              
IA. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE FROM THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A BUMPY DAY IN              
THE AIR.                                                                        
OTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTION. CURRENTLY CONVECTION FROM EASTERN NEB              
UP INTO MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST... AND IS                  
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE                 
FORECAST AREA.  PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS                 
ANTICIPATED TO BE REACHING THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE                    
ROCHESTER AIRPORT AREA BY AFTERNOON. LATEST TAF HAS VCTS AT 21Z...              
AND THAT TIME LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. QUESTION WILL BE EXACTLY                
WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...WHICH IS WHY WE KEEP IT "VICINITY."             
IT COULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SITE.  THE KLSE TAF SITE IS MUCH MORE              
LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS AGAIN A                 
CONCERN. CURRENTLY HAVE 22Z FOR VCTS...AND THIS WILL TRY TO BE                  
PINNED DOWN BETTER IN LATER ISSUANCES.                                          
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT                
THEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT                 
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.                                                        
MW                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING             
     FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-               
     WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                        
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING             
     FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                      
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING             
     FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1047 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                               
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH                 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TRIMMED SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION BACK A BIT                
FURTHER NW AND TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AFTER 4 PM. SSW WINDS HAVE                 
INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AT 10 AM WITH               
BLOOMINGTON GUST OF 44 MPH...PONTIAC GUST OF 42 MPH AND TAYORVILLE              
GUST OF 41 MPH. SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS                
PEAKING AT 45 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOT AND HUMID               
WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95F AS SUNNY SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.              
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG 980 MB LOW PRESSURE             
OVER FAR SE ND. ITS WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE INTO NORTHERN WI AND               
WESTERN OH WHILE ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE IA/NE                   
BORDER AND EASTERN KS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO                
MID 80S WITH DEWPOITNS IN THE MID 60S.                                          
RUC AND NAM/WRF MODELS TAKE VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE NE TOWARD THE              
MN/CANADIAN BORDER BY 00Z/7 PM...DRAGGING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL               
IA BY SUNSET. SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD               
OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH PREFRONTAL TROF AND APPEARS TO MOVE INTO                
AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL IL                  
OVERNIGHT. SPC CONTINUES MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT                 
NORTH OF I-72 WITH HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS JUST NORTH OF                     
GALESBURG AND STARK COUNTY. MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING              
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT COULD BE 65 KTS OR GREATER.                            
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE                 
FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. 15-20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS             
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY...               
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A               
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS              
BROKEN.                                                                         
CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE CIRRUS BASED UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING...               
THEN LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE               
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD STILL BE VFR                 
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER               
WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS                   
EXPECTED TO RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. STORM COVERAGE            
IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO DID NOT HIT THEM TOO HEAVY JUST YET.                  
CARRIED TEMPO STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS AT PIA AND BMI...BUT ONLY                  
PROB30 ELSEWHERE.                                                               
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                
BUSY DAY ON TAP FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...                
AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY. SURFACE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WARM               
FRONT IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM                 
SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE CF ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS SYSTEM... AS WELL AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THAT IT WILL                       
BRING...ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF MODELS WAS USED              
IN THIS FORECAST.                                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...                                              
WINDS ARE THE FIRST PROBLEM FOR TODAY. BETWEEN STRONG WINDS IN                  
EXCESS OF 50KTS BLOWING INTO THE REGION ALOFT...AND A RAPIDLY                   
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH WILL               
BE THE NORM INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE FRONT               
MOVES CLOSER LATER ON THIS EVENING...WILL LOSE THE MOMENTUM                     
TRANSFER WINDS FROM ALOFT...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO              
STAY TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE HOURS BEFORE                         
MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY AS A RESULT. ALSO                
UPPED THE GUSTS TO 43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE INFLUENCE              
FROM THE WINDS ALOFT ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT. ALL OF                
THIS WIND WILL BE AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL                
PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH               
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE ACTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...                
THE QPF IS A LITTLE TOO RAPID...AND HAVE SLOWED THAT SLIGHTLY IN                
THE GRIDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS                         
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH... BUT THE LLJ WILL BE                
WELL IN GEAR WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SFC. DWPTS                
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERLY WINDS                 
WILL ESCORT MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT TODAY.                
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO                 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SPC HAS PAINTED A MODERATE RISK FOR AREAS ALONG               
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAYLORVILLE TO BETWEEN DANVILLE AND                    
PARIS. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH              
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE POSSIBLE...AS               
WELL AS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS.                                             
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                          
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM. FORECAST IS DRY BEHIND THIS              
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR                
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.                       
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-                
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
642 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT.  THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN STRONG WINDS BEGINNING DURING THE LATE                  
MORNING HOURS AND THEN SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE LATE EVENING AND               
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS FAR AS THE WIND SITUATION IS CONCERNED...HAVE              
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 05Z AS SYNPOTIC...PRESSURE            
GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY WELL                 
AFTER SUNSET.  THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50+KT WINDS AT 850MB                
UNTIL 06Z.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...CONVECTION WILL BECOME THE                 
PRIMARY CONCERN...AND DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND            
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.                                
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS             
AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY             
EVENING IS CONCERNED...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASING POPS TO                
CATEGORICAL IS JUSTIFIED.  HAVE TWEEKED THE TIMING OF THE WX GRIDS              
TO INTRODUCE TS INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND               
00Z AND THEN SPREADING EWD. HAVE KEPT IN THE MENTION OF T+ WITH                 
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS FOR NOW...THOUGH THE ACTUAL              
HAIL THREAT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH FREEZING            
LEVELS...APPROACHING 15KFT...AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.                     
BUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED                 
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO THE GREATER THREAT OF SQUALL             
LINE DEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECT THAT THE               
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING TSRA/SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS                
AFTER 12Z.  THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE                
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS            
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRE-SQUALL LINE                
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.                                                          
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.  THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING DRY             
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE                          
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.                                                       
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
642 AM CDT                                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FROM 06Z             
SET. MAIN WX CONCERNS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND             
POTENTIAL/TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.                       
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN HIGH                  
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG JET MAX NOTED FROM SRN RCKYS INTO             
CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING UPPER               
TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...AS               
SFC LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS FCST            
AREA OVRNGT. TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WARM SECTOR TODAY HAS               
BEEN GENERATING WINDS 15G25KT OVRNGT...AND MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS              
OUT OF KORD/KRFD INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS IN 950-900 HPA LAYER. THUS             
FCST SNDGS SUPPORTING 35-40 KT SSW GUSTS TODAY APPEAR TO BE IN LINE.            
CONVECTION POTENTIAL/TIMING...AGAIN 06Z THINKING STILL APPEARS                  
VALID. STRONG CAP NOTED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS AT UPSTREAM RAOB SITES                 
DEPICTED IN WRF/RUC FCST SNDGS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO ERODE UNTIL             
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL CONVERGENCE            
INCREASES AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THEREFORE APPEARS                    
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING WHEN              
FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENOUGH MID LVL COOLING TO BREAK CAP. THUS HAVE            
MAINTAINED TIMING FROM 06Z TAFS AND INDICATED TEMPO TRW AFTER 01Z               
FOR KRFD...AND AFTER SUNSET SHOW FOR CHI AREA TERMINALS WITH TEMPO              
TRW AFTR 03Z. SVR CONVECTION REMAINS PROBABILITY GIVEN MLCAPES                  
IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE EVEN AFTER DARK IN MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF                  
FRONT...AND 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT                   
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN EVOLUTION...WITH EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT            
INTO LINEAR SQUALL LINE ORGANIZATION BASED ON DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL               
WIND PROFILES. PER RECENT TELCO WITH SPC...DAY 1 HIGH RISK WILL BE              
EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO NRN IL. ACTUAL FROPA APPEARS TO ARRIVE              
AROUND 10Z AT KRFD...MORE LIKE 12Z AT KORD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME                
LINGERING RW/TRW BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE...AND HAVE KEPT VCTS            
IN FCST BEYOND MIDNIGHT THRU FROPA.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
345 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FOCUS ON NEXT 16-24 HOURS WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED               
WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS TO                 
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALIGNED WITH              
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS TO RESULT IN SOLID             
30 KNOTS WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY/THIS EVENING BEFORE                   
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EAST               
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST                
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF IL/IND...AS DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY            
LAYER OVER ADJACENT LAND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40            
KNOTS PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL WATER AND MORE STABLE                  
CONDITIONS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...SO HAVE HELD FORECAST AT 30 KNOTS             
FOR OPEN WATERS INTO TONIGHT.                                                   
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF              
LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THUS WIND SHIFT TO                
WEST AND DECREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MODEST                          
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THE RULE THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH MOVES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS              
SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...WIND ADVISORY 15Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.                                 
.IN...WIND ADVISORY 15Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.                                 
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 06Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
902 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN               
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATES A                    
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...AND ISALLOBARIC FIELDS SHOW              
THAT WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO KANSAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC CONCURS AS IT SHOWS 30 KNOT SURFACE WINDS                 
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BY 00Z FRIDAY. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR                
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS                    
TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES                   
REGION OVERNIGHT.                                                               
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALONG WITH                
TH OVERNIGHT INVERSION KEEPING THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS UP                 
OFF THE SURFACE. THE KGLD VAD AND AREA WIND PROFILERS ARE                       
CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-50 KNOTS OF WIND 1-2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS              
TO MIX DOWN AND THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH              
THE WIND SHIFT FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA BY LATE TODAY. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY                      
CRITERIA WINDS TODAY. MODELS ARE WITHIN A FEW KNOTS ON EITHER                   
SIDE OF THE CRITERIA. THE RUC AND NAM ARE DOING MUCH BETTER IDENTIFYING         
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WINS SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE TODAY THAN         
THE GFS AND HAVE GONE WITH WINDS BASED ON THE RUC...BUT MODERATED               
SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND                    
ADVISORY...BUT WILL WORD PRODUCTS STRONGLY AND PASS IT ALONG.                   
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TONIGHT AS A              
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT                 
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY              
WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A          
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY IN                     
RESPONSE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND              
THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH A SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION SATURDAY                         
EVENING...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT               
LATE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT              
AREA EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT                
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.                                      
AVIATION...WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE                   
TRI-STATE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS                      
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FOLLOWING SUNSET.  CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM            
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.                          
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM            
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.                                          
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
     COZ090-091.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MENTZER/LOCKHART                                                                
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1209 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...                                           
.UPDATE...ADDED GALE WARNING TO LAKE MI SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR.                 
LUDINGTON AND FRANKFORT HAVE BOTH SEEN GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE PAST             
1-2 HOURS.                                                                      
980MB SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF FARGO THIS MORNING.                          
WARM FRONT ISN/T THRU EASTERN UPPER MI YET...SE WINDS ARE STILL                 
HANGING ON IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...STRONG WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. A TONGUE OF NEAR 60             
DEW POINT AIR HAS SNUCK UP THE LAKE MI COAST. ELSEWHERE DEWIES ARE              
ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT RISING. 12Z APX SOUNDING HAD 50KT PLUS            
WINDS JUST 1500 FEET OFF THE DECK...AND CORRESPONDING RAPID WARMING             
ALOFT. UPSTREAM...12Z ILX SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED THE INCOMING TOASTY              
AIRMASS...WITH 700MB TEMPS 12C AND 800MB TEMPS 20C. FOR THE PM...THE            
MAIN CONCERNS ARE MAKING SURE THE CAP WILL HOLD...AND THEN WIND                 
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
THE CAP SHOULD HOLD WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND                 
UPSTREAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT A VERY WARM NOSE ABOVE                  
800MB...WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 10C...AND SBCIN IN EXCESS OF              
200J/KG. WOULD PROBABLY TAKE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO BREAK THRU                   
THAT...AND THAT WON/T BE HAPPENING. THE WARM FRONT IS A CONCERN...AS            
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE RUC AND NAM THAT THE FRONT WILL               
NOT LIFT THRU THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE               
STILL CAPPED NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL THIS EVENING. MAY TOSS IN AN              
ISOLATED TSTORM AFTER 22Z IN CHIPPEWA CO.                                       
WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS MORNING...THANKS TO MIXING            
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 950MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE                
THIS PM...850MB WINDS 40-50KT. WE/LL JUST BARELY MIX TO 850MB...SO              
THIS IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. BUT WE DON/T            
OFTEN APPROACH THESE LEVELS WHEN TREES ARE IN FULL LEAF...WHICH                 
ENHANCES POSSIBILITY OF LIMBS COMING DOWN...CAUSING DAMAGE AND POWER            
INTERRUPTIONS. SO ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                    
UPDATES TO FORECAST WILL BE MINOR...MAINLY SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND            
SKY COVER.                                                                      
STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR TONIGHT. SOUPIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
ADVECT IN THIS PM AS WINDS VEER A BIT SSW...TAPPING THE AROUND                  
60/LOWER 60S DEWIES IN IL/WI. THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED                      
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED AS            
IT BLASTS IN TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING             
WINDS. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE AS DISCRETE CELLS UPSTREAM. HOW               
QUICKLY THINGS TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN                 
DETERMINER OF STORM MODE. MOST LIKELY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY LINEAR                
HERE...THOUGH AS FAST AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING...SAID TRANSITION                
WILL NEED TO HAPPEN FAST.                                                       
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SVR THREAT TONIGHT.                              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN. THAT LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF SUPERIOR             
TONIGHT. SVR STORMS WILL IGNITE ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN                  
WI/IOWA BY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ONE OR SEVERAL                
SQUALL LINES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS THEY MOVE THRU NORTHERN            
MI LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE               
WEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.                                    
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 432 AM THU JUNE 7...                                  
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...980 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG               
THE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT                  
EXTENDING EASTWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. LATEST             
APX RADAR SHOWED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION HAD WEAKENED                   
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...JUST A COUPLE            
OF REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EVEN REPORTED ANY RAIN AT            
ALL. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WELL            
ADVERTISED POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND ITS              
IMPACT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.                                            
TODAY...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARM FRONT CLEARS THOSE AREAS. AFTER            
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB WITH              
AROUND 200 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...950 MB WINDS            
OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WILL DEFINITELY PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE                 
FORMATIONS AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS SO NO FOCUS             
IN EVIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES            
AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. ECMWF FORECAST OF 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO OF NEAR 20 C LOOK LIKE THEY WILL               
VERIFY SO HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED. AS FAR AS             
WINDS GO...NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE                 
SURFACE TO ABOUT 750 MB WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONG              
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS INLAND ZONES (GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH).                       
THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL LAND ZONES WITH THE             
EXCEPTION OF MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE MIXING WILL BE MINIMIZED DUE TO              
STABILIZING EFFECT OF ON-SHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY SHALLOW MIXING (TO ABOUT 950 MB).                                          
TONIGHT...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE               
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY             
MORNING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF (THETA-E                       
RIDGE)...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO               
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INDUCED SQUALL LINE             
ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE             
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME              
HEATING THIS LINE SHOULD STILL HAVE LOTS OF JUICE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF             
FOR A WHILE WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS                
(MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS). MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE                  
DECREASING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL BETWEEN 1500-1750 J/KG ACROSS THE                
AREA. SO THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS             
OF UP TO 75 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WET BULB             
ZERO HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 13000 FEET THIS EVENING TO AROUND                
10000 FEET OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED             
OUT AS WELL DESPITE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS.                         
FRIDAY...TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS A BIT FASTER THAN RUNS OF              
24 HOURS AGO (SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN ZONES AROUND 15Z OR SO). COLD AIR            
ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING                 
EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OUT THAT WAY.                
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EARLY...WHICH WILL                 
LIKELY DROP OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING POPS IN THE EAST IN            
THE MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON (AS TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS) WITH PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FREE               
CONDITIONS. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT SHOULD                
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S             
FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 8 TO 10 C ON SATURDAY                 
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                        
SUNDAY...STILL NOT A LOT GOING ON WEATHER WISE AS THE ZONAL FLOW                
CONTINUES. A SHORT WAVE DOES MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH WITHOUT ANY                  
NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH INCREASES A               
BIT TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD WORK.            
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 12 AND 14 C SO WILL                
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.                                      
MONDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO             
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES                  
INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 13 AND 15 C SO WILL BUMP UP HIGHS INTO THE             
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.                                                        
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
       WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES BUT MACKINAC COUNTY THRU 8PM                     
       GALE WARNING LMZ345 THRU TONIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1013 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...                                           
.UPDATE...980MB SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF FARGO THIS MORNING.                
WARM FRONT ISN/T THRU EASTERN UPPER MI YET...SE WINDS ARE STILL                 
HANGING ON IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...STRONG WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. A TONGUE OF NEAR 60             
DEW POINT AIR HAS SNUCK UP THE LAKE MI COAST. ELSEWHERE DEWIES ARE              
ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT RISING. 12Z APX SOUNDING HAD 50KT PLUS            
WINDS JUST 1500 FEET OFF THE DECK...AND CORRESPONDING RAPID WARMING             
ALOFT. UPSTREAM...12Z ILX SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED THE INCOMING TOASTY              
AIRMASS...WITH 700MB TEMPS 12C AND 800MB TEMPS 20C. FOR THE PM...THE            
MAIN CONCERNS ARE MAKING SURE THE CAP WILL HOLD...AND THEN WIND                 
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
THE CAP SHOULD HOLD WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND                 
UPSTREAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT A VERY WARM NOSE ABOVE                  
800MB...WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 10C...AND SBCIN IN EXCESS OF              
200J/KG. WOULD PROBABLY TAKE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO BREAK THRU                   
THAT...AND THAT WON/T BE HAPPENING. THE WARM FRONT IS A CONCERN...AS            
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE RUC AND NAM THAT THE FRONT WILL               
NOT LIFT THRU THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE               
STILL CAPPED NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL THIS EVENING. MAY TOSS IN AN              
ISOLATED TSTORM AFTER 22Z IN CHIPPEWA CO.                                       
WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS MORNING...THANKS TO MIXING            
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 950MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE                
THIS PM...850MB WINDS 40-50KT. WE/LL JUST BARELY MIX TO 850MB...SO              
THIS IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. BUT WE DON/T            
OFTEN APPROACH THESE LEVELS WHEN TREES ARE IN FULL LEAF...WHICH                 
ENHANCES POSSIBILITY OF LIMBS COMING DOWN...CAUSING DAMAGE AND POWER            
INTERRUPTIONS. SO ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                    
UPDATES TO FORECAST WILL BE MINOR...MAINLY SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND            
SKY COVER.                                                                      
STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR TONIGHT. SOUPIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
ADVECT IN THIS PM AS WINDS VEER A BIT SSW...TAPPING THE AROUND                  
60/LOWER 60S DEWIES IN IL/WI. THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED                      
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED AS            
IT BLASTS IN TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING             
WINDS. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE AS DISCRETE CELLS UPSTREAM. HOW               
QUICKLY THINGS TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN                 
DETERMINER OF STORM MODE. MOST LIKELY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY LINEAR                
HERE...THOUGH AS FAST AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING...SAID TRANSITION                
WILL NEED TO HAPPEN FAST.                                                       
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SVR THREAT TONIGHT.                              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN. THAT LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF SUPERIOR             
TONIGHT. SVR STORMS WILL IGNITE ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN                  
WI/IOWA BY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ONE OR SEVERAL                
SQUALL LINES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS THEY MOVE THRU NORTHERN            
MI LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE               
WEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.                                    
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 432 AM THU JUNE 7...                                  
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...980 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG               
THE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT                  
EXTENDING EASTWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. LATEST             
APX RADAR SHOWED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION HAD WEAKENED                   
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...JUST A COUPLE            
OF REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EVEN REPORTED ANY RAIN AT            
ALL. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WELL            
ADVERTISED POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND ITS              
IMPACT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.                                            
TODAY...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARM FRONT CLEARS THOSE AREAS. AFTER            
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB WITH              
AROUND 200 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...950 MB WINDS            
OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WILL DEFINITELY PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE                 
FORMATIONS AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS SO NO FOCUS             
IN EVIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES            
AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. ECMWF FORECAST OF 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO OF NEAR 20 C LOOK LIKE THEY WILL               
VERIFY SO HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED. AS FAR AS             
WINDS GO...NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE                 
SURFACE TO ABOUT 750 MB WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONG              
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS INLAND ZONES (GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH).                       
THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL LAND ZONES WITH THE             
EXCEPTION OF MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE MIXING WILL BE MINIMIZED DUE TO              
STABILIZING EFFECT OF ON-SHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY SHALLOW MIXING (TO ABOUT 950 MB).                                          
TONIGHT...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE               
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY             
MORNING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF (THETA-E                       
RIDGE)...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO               
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INDUCED SQUALL LINE             
ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE             
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME              
HEATING THIS LINE SHOULD STILL HAVE LOTS OF JUICE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF             
FOR A WHILE WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS                
(MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS). MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE                  
DECREASING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL BETWEEN 1500-1750 J/KG ACROSS THE                
AREA. SO THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS             
OF UP TO 75 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WET BULB             
ZERO HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 13000 FEET THIS EVENING TO AROUND                
10000 FEET OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED             
OUT AS WELL DESPITE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS.                         
FRIDAY...TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS A BIT FASTER THAN RUNS OF              
24 HOURS AGO (SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN ZONES AROUND 15Z OR SO). COLD AIR            
ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING                 
EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OUT THAT WAY.                
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EARLY...WHICH WILL                 
LIKELY DROP OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING POPS IN THE EAST IN            
THE MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON (AS TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS) WITH PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FREE               
CONDITIONS. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT SHOULD                
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S             
FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 8 TO 10 C ON SATURDAY                 
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                        
SUNDAY...STILL NOT A LOT GOING ON WEATHER WISE AS THE ZONAL FLOW                
CONTINUES. A SHORT WAVE DOES MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH WITHOUT ANY                  
NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH INCREASES A               
BIT TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD WORK.            
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 12 AND 14 C SO WILL                
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.                                      
MONDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO             
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES                  
INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 13 AND 15 C SO WILL BUMP UP HIGHS INTO THE             
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.                                                        
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
       WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES BUT MACKINAC COUNTY THRU 8PM.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
738 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT)...                                           
WV AND 400MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF            
EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES.                 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF TROUGH IS SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A                   
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 980MB. LATEST RADAR IMAGRY SHOWS A LINE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCHED FROM KBIS THROUGH EASTERN                   
LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVECTION IS TIED CLOSELY TO 850MB FGEN REGION.                 
-TSRA/S WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST...WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED            
EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.                                                
TODAY IS TURNING OUT TO BE QUITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. PRIOR TO               
THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND                   
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS OF FA. OPTED TO NOT INCLUDED DELTA AND                  
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...OWING TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLY ON TODAY...CAPPED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT MIXING              
OF STRONG WIND AND WIND GUSTS. BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE                   
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP. STARTED WIND ADVISORY IN                
WEST A BIT SOONER AS MORE HEATING IS EXPECTED FOR THEM. HIGHS IN                
THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE WEST. WITH A RARE HIGH RISK                 
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE              
VERY ACTIVE. HIGH SHEAR/CAPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE                 
ASCENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...+50KTS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS AROUND                 
500-700METERS BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR ACTIVE SEVERE                     
WEATHER PATTERN TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED               
TORNADOES ACROSS THE FA EXISTS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND                   
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED TOR POSSIBILITY IN                 
THE HWO.                                                                        
BY FRIDAY AFTN PRECIP. ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE                
EXITING TO THE EAST. DID TWEAK WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIME...BUT DIDN/T              
CHANGE MUCH. WANTED TO END PRECIP. EARLIER BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED               
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. BY 18Z FRIDAY THE              
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF HERE...ALLOWING FOR COOL AIR TO FILTER INTO                
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL FEEL NICE AFTER THURSDAYS SEVERE                      
WEATHER.                                                                        
THEREAFTER MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND TO            
AN EXTENT REMAINS OVER THE FA WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO                
GOOD REASON TO CHANGE EXISTING WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME LEFT CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN FA. THE NAM             
IS MORE BULLISH AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY SUNDAY AND BRINGS A             
WEAK S/W INTO THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS               
RIDGE IN PLACE MORE OR LESS.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB...DLH                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM EDT LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...                                
A STRONG LOW PRES OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN                               
DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS                
AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO                     
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH 30 TO 40KT GUSTS                  
MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME GUSTS IN THIS               
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1            
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE                 
REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN                    
STATIONARY THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...A 29.6 INCH LOW CENTER WILL                 
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND MON.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
WILL REMAIN CAPPING FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH 18-22Z...WITH ONLY AN             
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THREAT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS             
HAS EATEN AWAY AT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MOVING INTO               
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 10Z...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR               
SPRINKLES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS                       
MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KT.  AS THE FRONT NEARS AND             
THE CAP ERODES...HAVE INCLUDED PROB 30 FOR STRONG STORMS.  WILL                 
LIKELY NEED TO ADD STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY +TSRA WITH ANY                   
DEVELOPING STORMS THAT NEAR KCMX OR KSAW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO               
THIS EVENING.  HAVE STRONG WINDS STILL...BUT COLD FRONT TO THE EAST             
BY 06Z.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT                   
/11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-010>012-084-085.                         
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT                
EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR MIZ002-009.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
MARINE/AVIATION...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1048 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...SFC LOW CENTER NEAR WHAPETON ND AT 15Z. WARM FRONT IS                 
PUSHING THROUGH THE FA...BUT BENDING AROUND MORE DOMINANT MARINE                
LAYER ATTM. LOW CLOUDS IN WAA STREAMING THROUGH NW WI AND ACROSS                
ALL BUT THE KBRD/KPWC/KSAZ AREA WHERE SUN IS POKING THROUGH. 12Z                
RUC HAS THE THE WARMER AIR DEFEATING THE MARINE LAYER BETWEEN                   
17-18Z. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MADE              
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS/ZONES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON SIGNIFICANT SEVERE                       
WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR TODAY.                                                     
DEEP SURFACE LOW...AROUND 979MB WAS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH                          
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE              
ARROWHEAD.                                                                      
THE LLJ WAS AT 50 TO 70 KT AS SEEN ON KDLH AND KMPX KVWP`S...AND                
AT 750M ON THE BLUE RIVER WIND PROFILER. THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN SOME               
TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA...HOWEVER NAM STILL SHOWS              
35-40 KT AT 875MB OVER NORTHWEST WI AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO              
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER              
A GOOD PART OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB AS WELL...AND CAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE                
TO 2000-2500J/KG IN SPOTS THAT WARM TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER 60S                 
DEWPOINTS. MODELS FORECAST A DRY SLOT TO MOVE UP OVER EASTERN MN                
AND WI TODAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING. A 100KT UPPER JET                  
SLAMS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR CWA WILL BE IN AN AREA OF STRONG                     
DIVERGENCE. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE UPPER JET                  
OVER LLJ...CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55 TO 70KT...AND 0-1KM                  
SHEAR OF 20-30KT. MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN HIGH RISK OF SEVERE                     
STORMS...WHICH IS RARE. ALL PARAMETERS ARE PRESENT FOR A BIG                    
SEVERE WEATHER DAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND THE                   
THREAT FOR A TORNADO. BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WILL BE DEPENDANT ON                 
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT THINGS SHOULD GET GOING                  
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING.                             
CURRENT AREA RADARS SHOW SOME MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS MOVING                     
THROUGH SOUTHERN MN...HEADING QUICKLY TOWARD OUR SOUTH CENTRAL                  
COUNTIES. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.                   
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND                  
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING...INTO THE EARLY               
EVENING.                                                                        
SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER FAR                    
EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.               
A RIDGE WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE FRIDAY...BRING DRY WEATHER TO              
OUR CWA ON GUSTY WEST WINDS.                                                    
AVIATION...NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF                     
AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL                  
JET. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED               
TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE EXCEPTION IS               
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO                
KEEP AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. IFR/MVFR                   
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE                   
MORNING AS WELL.                                                                
THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.               
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS                
WILL BE LIKELY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  68  47  68  46 /  60  60  10  10                                           
INL  70  47  67  44 /  60  60  10  10                                           
BRD  80  48  68  48 /  60  40  10  10                                           
HYR  82  52  67  46 /  70  60  10  10                                           
ASX  81  53  67  45 /  70  60  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-            
     BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-              
     LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
$$                                                                              
GSF                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1004 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SETTING UP JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST         
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS NOW PUSHING            
INTO WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. IN FACT...A TORNADO           
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS SOON. THERE IS STILL A              
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH KFNB AND KICL...            
BUT THAT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...OUT OF                 
OUR AREA ALTOGETHER.                                                            
FOCUS FOR US WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL AGAIN TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES              
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN                  
FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS NOW ACROSS NORTHWEST            
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 4              
PM AND BEYOND PER LATEST RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBVN TO KSUX FOR                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY...CERTAINLY IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY              
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY               
CRITERIA FROM KOLU THROUGH KHNR...ESSENTIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF              
COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE THOSE COUNTIES IN FOR NOW...BUT IF CONDITIONS              
FAIL TO MATERIALIZE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THE ADVISORY AREA                  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SAT LOOP SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS FAR                 
EASTERN WY AND INTO WRN SD. LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS HAS 980MB SFC              
LOW OVR EXTREME SERN ND WITH SFC TROF TRAILING SWD INTO WRN                     
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SWD TOWARDS CNTRL KS. CONVECTION              
AHEAD OF THIS LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO REGION              
OF STRONG INHIBITION AND WL PROBABLY ONLY HAVE A FEW REMNANT                    
SHOWERS AROUND NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT               
FM WEST TO EAST AS DRY SLOT OF SYSTEM PIVOTS THRU THE FORECAST                  
AREA TODAY. STRONG SRLY WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE                   
BOUNDARY AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO LET ADVISORY GO THIS MORNING WITH               
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. FAIRBURY PROFILER               
STILL SHOWING 80KTS NEAR 850MB SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF MO RIVER              
MAY STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR A LITTLE WHILE.                                     
UPPER LEVEL LOW WL MOVE EWD ACROSS SD AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO              
NRN MN BY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS            
AFTERNOON PUSHING STRONG CDFNT THRU CWA TDY. STRONG MOMENTUM                    
TRANSFER AND TIGHT GRADIENT WL WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM               
NOON UNTIL THIS EVENING...BUT JUST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.            
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES ACROSS NERN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND              
SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WHILE               
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK LIKELY NUDGES INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF NEB.              
FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS             
KS. THIS HIGH SHIFTS INTO MO AND IL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PUTTING REGION            
IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS WK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CNTRL PLAINS.            
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SLATED FOR SAT NIGHT IN WAA REGIME. BOTH 00Z GFS            
AND NAM HINT AT A WK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING OVER THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY               
MORNING BUT LOOKS MORE LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THIS RUN SO AM A             
A BIT SUSPECT OF THIS. STILL...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THRU THE            
DAY SUNDAY SO -TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WAA CONTINUES INTO THE             
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF LEESIDE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS                
REGION. THIS LOW PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK DRAGGING                
FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. WL LEAVE POPS AS IS IN THE               
EXTENDED PERIODS.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND AFFECT                
THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME                
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE PCPN. TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED               
OUT OF THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE RELAXED A BIT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE               
CENTER PULLS INTO NRN MN...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVEL                 
DRY SLOT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL                 
SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY OR                  
THIS EVENING. SOME 850 MB MOISTURE DOES MOVE TOWARD KOFK BY THIS                
EVENING AND WOULD EXPECT THE CEILING TO DROP INTO THE 3000-5000                 
FOOT RANGE AFTER 00Z.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-          
     030>034-042>045.                                                           
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1036 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK SFC TROF WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.               
THIS TROF WILL LIFT BACK NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER                  
SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE                 
REGION ON SATURDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WITH SFC BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK                  
NORTH LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD BECOME SRLY ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTN.               
DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED                
BUT WITH SOME MIXING DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND                 
HEAT INDEXES SHOULD REMAIN AOB 95 DEGREES. TEMPS ON SCHEDULE ATTM.              
BOTH ARW AND RUC TRYING TO HINT AT CONVECTION TODAY ALONG A SEA                 
BREEZE BUT WITH MRNG SOUNDING RATHER DRY ABOVE 750 MB AND MID/UPR               
LVL RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RGN DO NOT FEEL DEEP CONVECTION IS              
VERY LIKELY. WILL NOT ADD POPS ATTM.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
UPR RDG WILL CONT OVER REGION FRI WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS.                    
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S IMD BEACHES.                 
HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 100 AS DEWPTS DROP                  
A BIT DURING MAX HEATING. MDLS SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF INLAND ON SEA               
BRZ...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT WILL CONT PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLD                
CONVECTION. BETTER CHCS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT AS COLD FRONT                
CROSSES THE REGION. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY                
SHLD BE FOCUS FOR TSRA. GFS/NAM INDICATE 500MB WINDS INCREASING TO              
30 TO 35 KTS SAT AFTN...THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH DECENT INSTAB                  
NEAR AND S OF FRNT MAY YIELD A FEW SVR STORMS ESPLY SRN TIER.                   
PRECIP WILL END SAT EVENING AS FRONT MOVES S OF REGION AND DRIER                
AIR MOVES IN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW                
ON SUN THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND                 
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AFTER A FEW DAYS OFF THE SE COAST              
THE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY                   
TUE/WED. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX MAKERS IN THE LONGER TERM WHICH MEANS              
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE                  
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE               
FCST...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE RGN THIS MRNG AND                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOURS              
PERIOD. FOR FRI AND SAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN                  
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEXT SFC BOUNDARY.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PRODUCE SW S-SW               
FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE LESS THAN 15             
KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS RUNNING ABOUT 2-3 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO              
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WATERS...BUT                 
REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR               
CHANGES TO RAISE WINDS SPEED ABOUT 5 KT LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF               
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
333 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND               
EXTENDED. GFS FLUCTUATES FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER            
OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE...BUT IN ESSENCE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S...KEEPING THE MAIN DYNAMICS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...DEEP LOW-LEVEL              
MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD EARLY TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN A               
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH 65-70 COMMON                    
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90               
HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                           
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL                             
GEORGIA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST GULF MOISTURE FEED. HOWEVER...WARMING             
ALOFT OF +5C IN THE 600-400MB LAYER HAS REALLY PUT A LID ON TSRA                
SO FAR TODAY. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 16000 FT AND ECHO TOPS               
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 15000-20000 FT RANGE...SO MOSTLY JUST                
TROPICAL +SHRA SO FAR. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL                
FOR TODAY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD               
NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN THE VERY DRY GROUND IN MOST AREAS. THE                   
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING               
AND THE RUC MODEL DEPICTS THIS WELL. FOR FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF               
THE FRONT...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND                              
NORTHEAST...WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER BY FRI NIGHT AND                 
THEN WASH OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GA SAT. CURRENT INDICATION IS                  
THAT THIS WILL COME THROUGH NORTH GA AFTER 06Z SAT...A MINIMAL                  
DIURNAL CONVECTION TIME. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FEATURE               
SAT AFTER THAT..BUT THE MODEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE               
LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THAT TIME. AS THE UPPER                  
RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE WEST...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SOUTHWARD                 
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS INSISTENT ON CONSIDERABLY DRYING              
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO                 
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE FRONT ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE              
FRI-SAT ACROSS THE CWA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE EACH                 
AFTERNOON WITH GFS MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -4              
TO -6 RANGE. THUS...I AM CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE                  
ENOUGH FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...IN THE NORTH                    
FRIDAY AND AREAWIDE SATURDAY. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME              
ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT                      
PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL              
THERE IS A BETTER INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH NONE              
OF THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AT THIS TIME. MAV/MET/FWC MOS TEMPS               
VERY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. MINS WILL BE QUITE                         
MILD...MOSTLY NEAR 70. FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THEN MAV MOS        
FOR SAT-SUN GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA                   
ACTIVITY. MAV MOS FOR RMG GENERALLY TOO HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD                 
AND LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES MOST DAYS.                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
GFS COMING INTO LINE BETTER WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH RESPECT TO                
THE UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK. NOW SHOWING IT NOT MAKING AS MUCH                    
PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY. THIS                 
HINGES ON STRONGER ENERGY INTO THE SW U.S. WHICH WILL MOVE THE                  
RIDGE BACK FURTHER EAST JUST AS IT IS TRYING TO RETROGRADE WEST.                
GIVEN THAT THIS HAS BEEN THE RULE THE PAST COUPLE OF                            
MONTHS...CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS AND MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD                    
AGREEMENT ON THIS OCCURRING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER              
THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN                    
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A                  
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A                 
DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO                
SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE-WED AND A DISTURBANCE                   
RIDING OVER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE              
SE U.S. AT THE SAME TIME. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS COOLING                    
ALOFT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES AND HENCE INSTABILITY.              
THUS...CONDITIONS APPEAR AMPLE FOR CONTINUED DAILY DIURNAL                      
CONVECTION. WITH NO REAL CLEAR FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HAVE JUST                   
OPTED FOR MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                  
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE              
NORMAL. 12Z MEX QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE 00Z MEX...SO RAISED                 
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          69  90  68  89  68 /  20  20  20  30  10                        
ATLANTA         71  89  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  30  20                        
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  84  61 /  20  30  20  30  10                        
CARTERSVILLE    67  89  66  87  64 /  20  30  20  30  10                        
COLUMBUS        72  93  73  91  72 /  30  20  20  40  20                        
GAINESVILLE     70  89  69  87  68 /  20  30  20  30  10                        
MACON           71  93  70  92  71 /  30  20  20  40  20                        
ROME            69  90  69  87  65 /  20  30  20  30  20                        
PEACHTREE CITY  66  90  67  89  65 /  20  20  20  30  20                        
VIDALIA         74  91  70  92  72 /  30  20  20  40  20                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19/17                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
300 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 204 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                
MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN THE WIND                  
ADVISORY. SPC STILL HAS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...NW OF A LINE                   
FROM TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN...IN A MODERATE RISK OF                           
SEVERE...WITH AREAS SE OF THAT LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK.                           
AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER IOWA AND FAR SE                   
MN...MOVING RAPIDLY NE. OUR MAIN STORM TRIGGER WILL BE LINKED TO                
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE INTERACTION OF THE 55KT                 
LLJ AND THE 100KT H25 JET LATER THIS EVENING. THE HI RES WRF                    
MODELS /3KM NCAR AND 4KM NCEP/ ARE INDICATING A BROKEN SQUALL LINE              
CONVECTIVE MODE. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION SEEM TO BE MORE OF A                  
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER NAM. WILL STICK                
CLOSER TO THE MESO SCALE MODELS FOR TIMING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW                 
MORNING... THE USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE REST OF THE               
FORECAST.                                                                       
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE PROMPTED WIND ADVISORIES                    
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ THIS               
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN               
AT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE               
WIND ADVISORY AS IS.                                                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                          
A DEEP SPRING-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS                   
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING.              
THE FRONT WILL LIFT A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE                  
ACROSS ILLINOIS. LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A CAP IN                 
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE                 
EVENING. LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS        
TO BUST THROUGH ANY REMAINING CAP AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING... AND               
RAPIDLY DEVELOP UP TO SEVERE LEVELS.                                            
THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKE IT MIGHT REACH OUR WESTERN              
CWA EARLIER THAT 10 PM...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION TO THE EAST IS                  
MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NE MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS.                       
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE 45 TO 50 KTS TO THE                     
NE...AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. CAPE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG                  
SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAINLY BE AVAILABLE FOR                  
AREAS NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THE                    
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
THE FARTHER EAST THE LINE PROGRESSES...THE MORE SHEARED OUT THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME. THIS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THE                   
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SE OF A LINE FROM CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE              
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. THE LINE MAY BECOME MORE BROKEN BY                       
THEN...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE GUST FRONTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                        
FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE AFFECTING AREAS IN                
OUR FAR SE CWA...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM EFFINGHAM TO                
PARIS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY               
MORNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR                   
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.                                            
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID                
WEEK NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP                 
AND RETURN US TO A SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HEAT                 
INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID               
TO UPPER 80S MOST DAYS.                                                         
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                               
TWO BIG WEATHER CONCERNS FOR 18Z CENTRAL IL TAF SITES. FIRST IS                 
THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SQUALL LINE                
MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED A BIT SLOWER              
TREND OF ARRIVAL OF SQUALL LINE WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION THAT            
IS CURRENTLY GETTING ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL IA JUST EAST OF I-35                
INTO NW MO. TIMED LEADING EDGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE TO REACH PIA BY              
04Z...I-55 TAF SITES OF BMI AND SPI BY 05Z TO 06Z...AND CMI BY                  
08Z. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG 980 MB LOW PRESSURE              
NEAR DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. THIS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK NE                   
TOWARD HUDSON BAY CANADA BY 18Z/FRI. THIS TO SWEEP A DRY LINE EAST              
ACROSS IL OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING              
OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 38 TO 45 KTS. THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT               
TO 15 KTS AND TURN SW...THEN TURN WEST FRI MORNING FROM 15 TO 25                
KTS AS LOW CLOUDS COULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST FRI MORNING.                     
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-                
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
235 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...                                                   
INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 18Z              
HAD DEEPENED TO 980MB...VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JUNE TO SAY THE               
LEAST. DRYLINE ARCING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO NW WI...CENTRAL IA            
AND SW INTO NW MO. AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD                 
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS                 
FIELD THAT IS STREAMING NORTHWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.                    
TRANSVERSE WAVES HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THIS CLOUD DECK ALL                       
MORNING...AN INDICATION OF THE VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT            
THAT WAS NICELY SAMPLED BY THE ILX/SGF/DVN MORNING SOUNDINGS.                   
HOWEVER JUST UPSTREAM 12Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED NICELY THE RESULTS OF             
THE STRONG FORCED ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS                
FORCED ASCENT WAS ALSO SAMPLED NICELY A 15Z DSM ACARS AND IN RECENT             
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THE TRANSVERSE WAVES ARE BECOMING LESS                
APPARENT. JUST SAW THE FIRST PART OF THE DVN 18Z SOUNDING AND                   
COMPARING IT TO THE 12Z LAUNCH YOU CAN SEE THAT THE STRONG FORCED               
ASCENT HAS BEGUN THAT FAR EAST.                                                 
SHORT RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT            
THE STRONG CAP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE EFFECTIVELY ERASED                
THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG OMEGA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO            
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN ACARS DATA             
AND THE PARTIAL 18Z DVN SOUNDING. THIS IS LEADING TO INCREASED                  
CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEVELOPING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER IA WILL INDEED            
SURVIVE AS IT MOVES INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT.                                      
STORM MODE AND THE RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT ARE MUCH MORE                        
PROBLEMATIC. CURRENT AND FORECAST 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY                
PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER IA/MO...WHICH SHOULD AND THUS FAR               
HAS LARGELY FAVORED MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE CONVECTION.               
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES             
THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN IOWA WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A            
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.                                          
WIND FIELDS ARE BEYOND PHENOMENAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH                    
REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING AN 85KT+ 6KM JET PUNCHING INTO                
IOWA AT THIS TIME. AS THIS JETLET TRANSLATES EASTWARD WOULD EXPECT              
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 50-60KT THIS EVENING OVER                
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. OF JUST AS MUCH CONCERN IS THE 50KT+ 1KM AGL LOW             
LEVEL JET PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING SENDING 0-1KM HELICITIES              
SOARING TO OVER 200 M^2/S^2. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE              
BEING MORE LINEAR...THE THREAT PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING                  
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT                  
EITHER EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE            
AND/OR MESOVORTICIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. HAIL THREAT            
ISNT NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY...HOWEVER                    
ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CAUSE THREAT TO LEAN MORE             
TOWARD WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO. GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL                  
LIKELY EXIST WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS BOWING EAST/NORTHEAST...MORE                
PERPENDICULAR TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.                                       
TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY BEING COORDINATED FOR OUR WESTERN CWA.                  
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT.  THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN STRONG WINDS BEGINNING DURING THE LATE                  
MORNING HOURS AND THEN SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE LATE EVENING AND               
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS FAR AS THE WIND SITUATION IS CONCERNED...HAVE              
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 05Z AS SYNPOTIC...PRESSURE            
GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY WELL                 
AFTER SUNSET.  THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50+KT WINDS AT 850MB                
UNTIL 06Z.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...CONVECTION WILL BECOME THE                 
PRIMARY CONCERN...AND DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND            
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.                                
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS             
AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY             
EVENING IS CONCERNED...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASING POPS TO                
CATEGORICAL IS JUSTIFIED.  HAVE TWEEKED THE TIMING OF THE WX GRIDS              
TO INTRODUCE TS INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND               
00Z AND THEN SPREADING EWD. HAVE KEPT IN THE MENTION OF T+ WITH                 
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS FOR NOW...THOUGH THE ACTUAL              
HAIL THREAT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH FREEZING            
LEVELS...APPROACHING 15KFT...AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.                     
BUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED                 
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO THE GREATER THREAT OF SQUALL             
LINE DEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECT THAT THE               
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING TSRA/SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS                
AFTER 12Z.  THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE                
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS            
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRE-SQUALL LINE                
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.                                                          
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.  THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING DRY             
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE                          
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.                                                       
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
642 AM CDT                                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FROM 06Z             
SET. MAIN WX CONCERNS REMAIN STRONG GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND             
POTENTIAL/TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.                       
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN HIGH                  
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG JET MAX NOTED FROM SRN RCKYS INTO             
CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING UPPER               
TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...AS               
SFC LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS FCST            
AREA OVRNGT. TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WARM SECTOR TODAY HAS               
BEEN GENERATING WINDS 15G25KT OVRNGT...AND MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS              
OUT OF KORD/KRFD INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS IN 950-900 HPA LAYER. THUS             
FCST SNDGS SUPPORTING 35-40 KT SSW GUSTS TODAY APPEAR TO BE IN LINE.            
CONVECTION POTENTIAL/TIMING...AGAIN 06Z THINKING STILL APPEARS                  
VALID. STRONG CAP NOTED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS AT UPSTREAM RAOB SITES                 
DEPICTED IN WRF/RUC FCST SNDGS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO ERODE UNTIL             
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL CONVERGENCE            
INCREASES AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THEREFORE APPEARS                    
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING WHEN              
FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENOUGH MID LVL COOLING TO BREAK CAP. THUS HAVE            
MAINTAINED TIMING FROM 06Z TAFS AND INDICATED TEMPO TRW AFTER 01Z               
FOR KRFD...AND AFTER SUNSET SHOW FOR CHI AREA TERMINALS WITH TEMPO              
TRW AFTR 03Z. SVR CONVECTION REMAINS PROBABILITY GIVEN MLCAPES                  
IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE EVEN AFTER DARK IN MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF                  
FRONT...AND 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT                   
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN EVOLUTION...WITH EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT            
INTO LINEAR SQUALL LINE ORGANIZATION BASED ON DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL               
WIND PROFILES. PER RECENT TELCO WITH SPC...DAY 1 HIGH RISK WILL BE              
EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO NRN IL. ACTUAL FROPA APPEARS TO ARRIVE              
AROUND 10Z AT KRFD...MORE LIKE 12Z AT KORD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME                
LINGERING RW/TRW BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE...AND HAVE KEPT VCTS            
IN FCST BEYOND MIDNIGHT THRU FROPA.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
345 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FOCUS ON NEXT 16-24 HOURS WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED               
WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS TO                 
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALIGNED WITH              
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS TO RESULT IN SOLID             
30 KNOTS WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY/THIS EVENING BEFORE                   
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EAST               
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST                
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF IL/IND...AS DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY            
LAYER OVER ADJACENT LAND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40            
KNOTS PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL WATER AND MORE STABLE                  
CONDITIONS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE...SO HAVE HELD FORECAST AT 30 KNOTS             
FOR OPEN WATERS INTO TONIGHT.                                                   
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF              
LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THUS WIND SHIFT TO                
WEST AND DECREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MODEST                          
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THE RULE THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH MOVES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS              
SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...WIND ADVISORY 15Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.                                 
.IN...WIND ADVISORY 15Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.                                 
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 06Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS               
TAF PACKAGE...INCLUDING THE GUSTINESS OF THE S WIND AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT...AND THEN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.             
THREW IN WS AT KCMX WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING AROUND 40-45KT AT 2000FT               
OFF THE DECK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX...MENTION OF TSRAGS                 
SEEMED APPROPRIATE...ALTHOUGH STILL UNSURE OF KICK OFF TIMING.                  
WHENEVER CONVECTION DOES INITIATE...EXPECT THE SYSTEMS TO MOVE                  
QUICKLY FROM W TO E.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STILL TRYING TO ASSESS THE DEVELOPING SEVERE SITUATION. OVERALL                 
...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FM PREVIOUS THINKING. FIRST OFF...ADDED                 
DELTA/SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT TO WIND ADVY...SO ALL CWA IS NOW IN                  
THIS. SO FAR...WINDS STAYING BLO 30 KT MOST AREAS...BUT WITH 35-40KT            
1-3KFT...DEEPER MIXING SHOULD BRING SOME 40KT WINDS TO SFC IN GUSTS.            
EARLIER OB ON TIP OF DOOR PENINSULA INDICATED 35 KT WINDS SO THERE              
IS A POTENTIAL OF HIGHER GUSTS EVEN CLOSE TO SHORES OF LK MI IF NOT             
FARTHER INLAND IN DELTA AND S SCHOOLCRAFT.                                      
CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS...ONE CONCERN IS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS                  
(3-4KFT BASES) THAT FORMED BENEATH CAPPING LAYER NEAR H7 THAT SPREAD            
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS NOW INTO WEST                
HALF OF CWA. THESE CLOUDS LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY CHANCE OF BREAKING CAP            
AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WHICH               
HELP TO COOL MID LEVELS AND ERODE THE CAP. CURRENT GRIDS WITH LIKELY            
POPS NOT INTO CWA AFT 21Z SEEMS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. TRIMMED BACK                
EASTERN EXTENT OF CHANCE POPS (MQT-MNM) UNTIL AFT 00Z. STRONG WIND              
FIELDS ALOFT LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR/HELICITY                              
PARAMETERS...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT...ALONG SFC BOUNDARY                  
ACROSS UPR MI. INSTABILITY...AT LEAST INITIALLY...IS THE MAIN                   
QUESTION. USED A T/TD OF 82/63 AND ACHIEVED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500             
J/KG WITH CIN NEAR 100 J/KG. HIGHER CIN VALUES WILL PROHIBIT                    
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. SCATTERED STORMS NOW                      
DEVELOPING FAR WEST WI INTO NE IA MAY BE BEGINNING SIGNALS OF SEVERE            
EVENT. WATCH ONLY OUT FOR FAR WEST CWA ATTM BUT EXPECT POTENTIAL                
SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO REST OF CWA THIS EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT)...                                      
WV AND 400MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF            
EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES.                 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF TROUGH IS SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A                   
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 980MB. LATEST RADAR IMAGRY SHOWS A LINE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCHED FROM KBIS THROUGH EASTERN                   
LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVECTION IS TIED CLOSELY TO 850MB FGEN REGION.                 
-TSRA/S WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST...WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED            
EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.                                                
TODAY IS TURNING OUT TO BE QUITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. PRIOR TO               
THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND                   
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS OF FA. OPTED TO NOT INCLUDED DELTA AND                  
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...OWING TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLY ON TODAY...CAPPED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT MIXING              
OF STRONG WIND AND WIND GUSTS. BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE                   
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP. STARTED WIND ADVISORY IN                
WEST A BIT SOONER AS MORE HEATING IS EXPECTED FOR THEM. HIGHS IN                
THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE WEST. WITH A RARE HIGH RISK                 
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE              
VERY ACTIVE. HIGH SHEAR/CAPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE                 
ASCENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...+50KTS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS AROUND                 
500-700METERS BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR ACTIVE SEVERE                     
WEATHER PATTERN TO DEVELOP. ALSO...THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED               
TORNADOES ACROSS THE FA EXISTS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND                   
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED TOR POSSIBILITY IN                 
THE HWO.                                                                        
BY FRIDAY AFTN PRECIP. ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE                
EXITING TO THE EAST. DID TWEAK WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIME...BUT DIDN/T              
CHANGE MUCH. WANTED TO END PRECIP. EARLIER BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED               
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. BY 18Z FRIDAY THE              
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF HERE...ALLOWING FOR COOL AIR TO FILTER INTO                
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL FEEL NICE AFTER THURSDAYS SEVERE                      
WEATHER.                                                                        
THEREAFTER MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND TO            
AN EXTENT REMAINS OVER THE FA WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO                
GOOD REASON TO CHANGE EXISTING WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME LEFT CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN FA. THE NAM             
IS MORE BULLISH AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY SUNDAY AND BRINGS A             
WEAK S/W INTO THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS               
RIDGE IN PLACE MORE OR LESS.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB...DLH                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM EDT LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...                                
A STRONG LOW PRES OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN                               
DAKOTAS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS                
AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO                     
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH 30 TO 40KT GUSTS                  
MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME GUSTS IN THIS               
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1            
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE                 
REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN                    
STATIONARY THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...A 29.6 INCH LOW CENTER WILL                 
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND MON.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT                                              
/11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-010>012>014-084-085.                     
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR                      
MIZ002-009.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JLL                                                                  
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                       
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
211 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...                                           
.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT              
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT. FIRST THE               
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN                  
MICHIGAN WITH THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE REPORTING 30                
KNOTS. THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS            
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THE MOST PROBABLE             
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW            
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA, AND KICK UP A STRONG SQUALL                        
LINE/DERECHO. TIMING FOR THE TAF SITES ARE BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FOR              
TVC AND PLN AND THEN BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z FOR APN.                               
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1209 PM                                                        
ADDED GALE WARNING TO LAKE MI SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR.                           
LUDINGTON AND FRANKFORT HAVE BOTH SEEN GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE PAST             
1-2 HOURS.                                                                      
980MB SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF FARGO THIS MORNING.                          
WARM FRONT ISN/T THRU EASTERN UPPER MI YET...SE WINDS ARE STILL                 
HANGING ON IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...STRONG WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. A TONGUE OF NEAR 60             
DEW POINT AIR HAS SNUCK UP THE LAKE MI COAST. ELSEWHERE DEWIES ARE              
ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S...BUT RISING. 12Z APX SOUNDING HAD 50KT PLUS            
WINDS JUST 1500 FEET OFF THE DECK...AND CORRESPONDING RAPID WARMING             
ALOFT. UPSTREAM...12Z ILX SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED THE INCOMING TOASTY              
AIRMASS...WITH 700MB TEMPS 12C AND 800MB TEMPS 20C. FOR THE PM...THE            
MAIN CONCERNS ARE MAKING SURE THE CAP WILL HOLD...AND THEN WIND                 
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
THE CAP SHOULD HOLD WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND                 
UPSTREAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT A VERY WARM NOSE ABOVE                  
800MB...WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 10C...AND SBCIN IN EXCESS OF              
200J/KG. WOULD PROBABLY TAKE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO BREAK THRU                   
THAT...AND THAT WON/T BE HAPPENING. THE WARM FRONT IS A CONCERN...AS            
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE RUC AND NAM THAT THE FRONT WILL               
NOT LIFT THRU THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE               
STILL CAPPED NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL THIS EVENING. MAY TOSS IN AN              
ISOLATED TSTORM AFTER 22Z IN CHIPPEWA CO.                                       
WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS MORNING...THANKS TO MIXING            
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 950MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE                
THIS PM...850MB WINDS 40-50KT. WE/LL JUST BARELY MIX TO 850MB...SO              
THIS IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. BUT WE DON/T            
OFTEN APPROACH THESE LEVELS WHEN TREES ARE IN FULL LEAF...WHICH                 
ENHANCES POSSIBILITY OF LIMBS COMING DOWN...CAUSING DAMAGE AND POWER            
INTERRUPTIONS. SO ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                    
UPDATES TO FORECAST WILL BE MINOR...MAINLY SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND            
SKY COVER.                                                                      
STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR TONIGHT. SOUPIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
ADVECT IN THIS PM AS WINDS VEER A BIT SSW...TAPPING THE AROUND                  
60/LOWER 60S DEWIES IN IL/WI. THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED                      
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED AS            
IT BLASTS IN TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING             
WINDS. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE AS DISCRETE CELLS UPSTREAM. HOW               
QUICKLY THINGS TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN                 
DETERMINER OF STORM MODE. MOST LIKELY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY LINEAR                
HERE...THOUGH AS FAST AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING...SAID TRANSITION                
WILL NEED TO HAPPEN FAST.                                                       
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SVR THREAT TONIGHT.                              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN. THAT LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF SUPERIOR             
TONIGHT. SVR STORMS WILL IGNITE ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN                  
WI/IOWA BY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN ONE OR SEVERAL                
SQUALL LINES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS THEY MOVE THRU NORTHERN            
MI LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE               
WEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.                                    
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 432 AM THU JUNE 7...                                  
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...980 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG               
THE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT                  
EXTENDING EASTWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. LATEST             
APX RADAR SHOWED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION HAD WEAKENED                   
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...JUST A COUPLE            
OF REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EVEN REPORTED ANY RAIN AT            
ALL. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WELL            
ADVERTISED POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND ITS              
IMPACT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.                                            
TODAY...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARM FRONT CLEARS THOSE AREAS. AFTER            
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB WITH              
AROUND 200 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...950 MB WINDS            
OF BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WILL DEFINITELY PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE                 
FORMATIONS AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS SO NO FOCUS             
IN EVIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES            
AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. ECMWF FORECAST OF 850 MB               
TEMPERATURES OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO OF NEAR 20 C LOOK LIKE THEY WILL               
VERIFY SO HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED. AS FAR AS             
WINDS GO...NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE                 
SURFACE TO ABOUT 750 MB WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONG              
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS INLAND ZONES (GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH).                       
THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL LAND ZONES WITH THE             
EXCEPTION OF MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE MIXING WILL BE MINIMIZED DUE TO              
STABILIZING EFFECT OF ON-SHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW             
ONLY SHALLOW MIXING (TO ABOUT 950 MB).                                          
TONIGHT...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE               
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY             
MORNING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF (THETA-E                       
RIDGE)...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO               
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INDUCED SQUALL LINE             
ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE             
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME              
HEATING THIS LINE SHOULD STILL HAVE LOTS OF JUICE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF             
FOR A WHILE WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS                
(MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS). MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE                  
DECREASING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL BETWEEN 1500-1750 J/KG ACROSS THE                
AREA. SO THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS             
OF UP TO 75 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WET BULB             
ZERO HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 13000 FEET THIS EVENING TO AROUND                
10000 FEET OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED             
OUT AS WELL DESPITE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS.                         
FRIDAY...TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS A BIT FASTER THAN RUNS OF              
24 HOURS AGO (SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN ZONES AROUND 15Z OR SO). COLD AIR            
ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING                 
EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 80 OUT THAT WAY.                
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EARLY...WHICH WILL                 
LIKELY DROP OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING POPS IN THE EAST IN            
THE MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON (AS TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS) WITH PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FREE               
CONDITIONS. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT SHOULD                
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S             
FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF PLUS 8 TO 10 C ON SATURDAY                 
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                        
SUNDAY...STILL NOT A LOT GOING ON WEATHER WISE AS THE ZONAL FLOW                
CONTINUES. A SHORT WAVE DOES MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH WITHOUT ANY                  
NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MEAN 1000-500 MB RH INCREASES A               
BIT TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD WORK.            
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 12 AND 14 C SO WILL                
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.                                      
MONDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO             
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES                  
INCREASE TO BETWEEN PLUS 13 AND 15 C SO WILL BUMP UP HIGHS INTO THE             
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.                                                        
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
       WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES BUT MACKINAC COUNTY THRU 8PM                     
       GALE WARNING LMZ345 THRU TONIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1203 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER                        
SITUATION.                                                                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE               
AXIS IS SHARPENING UP ROUGHLY FROM LEECH LAKE.. TO LAKE MILLE                   
LACS..AND SWD ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY                        
DESTABILIZING ALONG THIS AXIS..WITH CAPES NOW BETWEEN 1000-1500                 
J/KG. AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA CONTAINS DEEP LAYER SHEAR                  
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.                                                      
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS VERY INTENSE 0-1KM SHEAR VECTORS /35-40 KT/            
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WI..AND A               
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS GENERALLY LESS             
THAN 10.                                                                        
ELEVATED WEAK ECHOES AND TCU NOW MOVING INTO CENT MINNESOTA JUST                
SOUTHWEST OF BRAINERD ARE LIKELY A SYMPTOM OF STRONGER ASCENT..WHICH            
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
HOURS. THUS..WE EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 1 PM..IF NOT SOONER.            
CONVECTIVE MODE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC..BUT IF STORMS CAN REMAIN                   
DISCRETE..SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICAN TORNADO THREAT                
APPEAR LIKELY. EVEN IF THE MODE IS MORE LINEAR..COMBINATION OF VERY             
STRONG FLOW/STRONG DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT              
AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND AN ASSOCIATED             
THREAT OF TORNADOES AND/OR VERY INTENSE NON-TORNADIC WINDS                      
CURRENTLY..VERY SHALLOW..BUT ALSO VERY COLD AND STABLE..LAKE BREEZE             
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA...TO ROUGHLY SOLON                 
SPRINGS..TO JUST SOUTH OF MOOSE LAKE..THE NORTHWARD TO THE TAMARACK             
AND FLOODWOOD VICINITIES. THIS SHALLOW COLD DOME IS FORECASTED BY               
BOTH THE RUC/NAM TO ERODE AND ALLOS SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO SPREAD             
INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUEPRIOR SHORELINE BY 1-2 PM.                     
 MILLER                                                                         
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
245 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
WITH DRY LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN...CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHEAST KS.              
COLD FRONT WAS FURTHER WEST THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN            
NEBRASKA. MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE LOCATED ALONG THE DRY LINE              
EAST OF THE CWA AND UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE                
STARTED TO APPROACH CRITERIA IN ADVISORY AREA AND 18Z RUC FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS             
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW AND LET               
EVENING SHIFT CANCEL EARLY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...RATHER TRANQUIL               
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR THE AREA                  
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN FAIR AND MILD           
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT             
WITH POCKET OF WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE             
CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS OVER A BROAD AREA DURING THIS TIME             
AS 12Z MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER                 
FEATURES.                                                                       
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED AS GULF MOISTURE INDICATED                
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. SERIES OF                
SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL            
ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS            
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS MENTIONED THROUGH                
MOST OF THE EXTENDED SINCE TIMING SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN. AMOUNT OF                
WARMING WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT TRENDED                 
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO                  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS AT KOFK TO                
AROUND 26 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE                
ALSO COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS NOW                
NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS NORTHWEST              
NEBRASKA. REGARDING PRECIP...DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS AT KOFK BUT               
HELD OFF WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL LIGHTNING SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO            
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A BETTER THREAT EXISTS. BACKED OFF THE             
WINDS AND CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                              
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.                                             
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                              
IAZ043-055-056.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DEWALD                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1129 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED BREEZY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS                   
REPORTING GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN             
ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. EXPECT THE GUSTS TO WEAKEN SOME                  
THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN ADVISORY.                              
THICKER CIRRUS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM                 
WARMING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR THIS               
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS.                      
DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S               
ACROSS THE REGION. MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE RED RIVER           
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE                   
ATMOSPHERE.                                                                     
AT 11 AM...A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF WICHITA KANSAS              
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...TO NEAR CHILDRESS TEXAS. POTENT CAP                
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS SHOWN BY 700MB TEMPS ANALYZED AROUND                
13C AND 850 TEMPS OF 18 TO 20C AT 12Z...SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY                
UNTIL THIS EVENING. 12Z GFS AND WRF WEAKEN THE CAP AND BREAK OUT                
PRECIP ALONG THE DRY LINE BY 00Z. WOULD EXPECT INITIATION WOULD                 
MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 5 PM ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE NW                   
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SBCAPES OVER 2500 J/KG...ANY STORMS          
THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES INDICATE                  
THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE                      
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE THREAT FOR                  
SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD                  
FRONT APPROACHES AND OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE TONIGHT.                            
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL              
CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SC DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT               
RAPIDLY NORTH INTO FA THIS MORNING AND WILL HELP KEEP WINDS BELOW               
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO                    
AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER.                                           
NAM/WRF AND LATEST RUC DATA SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE              
WESTERN EDGE OF FA THIS AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF OSAGE/PAWNEE                   
COUNTIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THIS                
MORNING WITH DEW-POINTS RISING TO NEAR 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG               
DRY LINE. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION                 
WILL BE ALONG DRY LINE AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY                 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED                  
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED                   
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING A TORNADO                 
THREAT.                                                                         
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                    
STORMS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER               
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE                
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES SOUTH. SEVERE THREAT                  
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND                      
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.                                                     
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT                    
LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE                
NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER HIGH. KEPT FORECAST DRY WED/THU OF NEXT                  
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER REGION...OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO               
00Z MEX GUIDANCE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   91  64  78  62 /  10  70  20  20                                          
FSM   91  74  82  67 /  10  50  50  20                                          
MLC   90  72  81  65 /  10  50  50  20                                          
BVO   90  61  78  59 /  20  70  10  20                                          
FYV   87  68  77  62 /  10  70  30  20                                          
BYV   88  67  77  61 /  10  70  30  20                                          
MKO   89  67  77  65 /  10  60  30  20                                          
MIO   90  62  77  60 /  10  70  10  20                                          
F10   90  66  78  65 /  10  50  30  20                                          
HHW   91  75  86  71 /  10  20  50  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...03                                                                 
LONG TERM....14                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
411 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LOW SWIFTLY EXITING THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE LOW SITUATED              
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LINE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING              
TO PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AS SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING               
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD. COLD FRONT HAS              
PUSHED THROUGH ABERDEEN AND CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE               
EASTERN CWA...ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT TO                    
DIMINISH. VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE AT                        
KMBG...KPIR...AND KMBG. LATEST RUC INDICATING LARGEST PRESSURE                  
RISES PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA NOW THROUGH 00Z...WITH THE LATEST                 
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING A PRESSURE BUBBLE OF AROUND 7MB ACROSS                 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE MOMENT. WITH CLOSE TO                   
35-45KT STILL OVER THE AREA AT 925MB AND 850MB RESPECTIVELY...WIND              
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH 02Z. AREA OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE               
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY                         
EVENING...HOWEVER AM NOTICING MUCH OF THE RADAR ECHOES DISSIPATING              
AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIP                
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IN CASE THE SHOWERS ROTATE SOUTHWARD AS THE              
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. HOWEVER THOUGHT AT THE MOMENT                  
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS TO END SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.               
FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEGIN TO SEE                 
WAA AND RETURN FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE                 
FOR SATURDAY...AS WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK WAVE TO                  
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY WERE              
FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS INDICATING A WEAKER/FASTER WAVE THAN           
IN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                                               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DEVELOPING SSWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING               
CONVECTION THREAT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF NOTABLE S/W TROFS IN SSWRLY                  
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO SIT UNDER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SWRLY              
FLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A RATHER SLOW MOVING              
LONGWAVE TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW                   
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO                
MONDAY...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL TEMPS /700HPA/ OF +10C TO +12C ADVECT                
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY                   
TURNING OFF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SO...POPS/WX MENTION HAVE BEEN              
REMOVED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY                             
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS AT 700HPA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO                
ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A COUPLE OF                  
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS A COMBINATION OF INHERITED GRIDS AND HPC                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEW             
FEW HOURS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME                 
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE                
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST TO                
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO              
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z.                 
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0VC015-025                
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-            
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-                   
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-                   
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-                     
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT                                                           
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
230 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007                                                       
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.                                                          
FIRST...WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE                      
FORECAST AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE IN                
TERMS OF MEETING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...40 KNOT-PLUS WINDS AT 1000                 
FEET STILL POSSIBLE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH 7 PM PER RUC FORECAST                   
SOUNDINGS. SO...WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM.                       
NOW...ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.                  
AREAS OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE INITIATED ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE                  
FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. SHORT TERM                
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON...AFTER 4 PM OR 21Z. COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY                  
PROGGED TO RACE EASTWARD...AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z               
FRIDAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.                                   
NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN HANDLING OF CONVECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY.                
THE NAM HAS THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE                
GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHER RESOLUTION 4 KM WRF-              
NAM AND WRF-GFS ALSO SHOW THESE DIFFERENCES. THE 3 KM WRF-ARW                   
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR              
WEST. IT TAKES THE CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE                
COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF MADISON BY 00Z FRIDAY. IT THEN DEVELOPS MORE              
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST INTO ILLINOIS                     
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY...AND MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS                 
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY.                               
CONVECTIVE MODE SO FAR WITH STORMS TO OUR WEST HAS BEEN MAINLY                  
INDIVIDUAL CELLS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SUPERCELL                   
STRUCTURES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY STRONG                  
TONIGHT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS...AND 0-1 KM                
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. 100MB MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500                 
J/KG SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR TO YIELD SUPERCELL               
CONVECTION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH                  
ANY STORMS. TORNADO RISK ALSO REMAINS...AS MEAN LAYER LCLS OF 1000              
METERS OR LESS...COMBINE WITH THE WARM AND MOIST RFD                            
POTENTIAL...AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS EVOLVING                 
INTO BOW ECHOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. 850-300MB MEAN WIND OF 50 TO 60              
KNOTS SUGGEST RAPID NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM.                 
SPC HIGH RISK LOOKS GOOD. REFER TO SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE                   
INFORMATION.                                                                    
.MEDIUM TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                           
THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE                    
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND                 
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND               
THE COLD FRONT TAKES HOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TO                 
WARM A BIT ON SUNDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. STUCK WITH                 
NEAR GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.                          
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                     
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...ALONG WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE                     
FORECASTS...DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT               
LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A GRADUAL WARM AIR                      
ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER. TOUGH TO PICK OUT              
ANY DISCRETE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY                 
MAXIMA IN THIS PATTERN. STILL...THETA E ADVECTION IN 0-1 KM LAYER               
AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATE POTENTIAL               
FOR PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION. SO...WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THE MOST              
PART IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE 80                  
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE LAKE ON MOST DAYS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD BKN040-050 AND P6SM THRU 06Z WITH NMRS +TSRA            
AND CIGS 020...SFC WND GUSTS TO 50 KT IN TSRA. AFT 06Z SFC WNDS VEER            
TO WLY AND DIMINISH TO 25KT. CNVCTN ENDS BHND FROPA...BUT CIGS RMN              
BKN035-050 THRU 18Z FRI.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-               
056>060-062>072.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CORRECTED AT ADD AVIATION SECTION                                               
WOOD/MK                                                                         
</pre> wi