FXUS04 KWBC 241755
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 25/0000 UTC THRU JUN 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
...GULF COAST/SERN U.S...
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ACRS THE WRN/CNTL GULF
COAST REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SRN APLCNS AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY
MOIST/DEEP TROPICAL FLOW REGIME.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN MEX..WITH LEAD ONE
EXTENDING ACRS ERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF.  THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP VERY HIGH PWS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30
KTS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.  UPR PATRN
SEEMS TO SUPPORT A PATRN OF SHEARING IMPULSES INTO THIS
CONFLUENT FLOW..THUS HAVE TROUBLE BELIEVING THE ETAS MORE
WELL DEFINED SYSTEM AND FARTHER W TRACK OF INITIAL IMPULSE
OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS. THUS CUT BACK AMOUNTS IT TAKES
INTO THE CNTL APLCNS PARTICULARLY INTO SRN PA.   THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS THE USUAL GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH
MAKES ITS QPF HARD TO FOLLOW.  ENDED UP GOING WITH THE MORE
ERN TIMING OF THE GFS..THOUGH QPFWISE WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND. 
WITH RECENT SATL PASSES SHOWING AN AREA OF 2.5 INCH PWS OVER
THE WRN GULF...TSTMS THAT DVLP PARTICULARLY FROM SRN LA INTO
MS..TN..NRN AL COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. 
OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHEARING UPR TROF WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH OR GREATER RAINS WITH LCLLY
HIER AMOUNTS.   
...NEW ENG/NY STATE WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
THE UNSEASONABLY STG AND COOL UPR LOW OVER SCNTL CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND ASSOCD COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS THE GT LAKES AND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  ETA AND GFS ARE IN GENLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWER/TSTMS SWEEPING ACRS NEW ENGLAND
THU NIGHT WITH A GENL WEAKENING TREND INTO FRI MRNG AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS ALONG THE BNDRY.  MODELS SHOW SOME .25 TO
.50 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS WRN/UPSTATE NY/NRN VT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FAST FLOW..TIMING OF BEST INSTABILITY AND
NARROW PLUME OF HIER PWS ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT.  FARTHER
WEST..GIVEN TIMING OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK AFTN
HEATING..BEST THREAT OF .25 TO .50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS EWD INTO SW KS/OK PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA
WILL ALSO BE UNDER SRN EDGE OF DIFFLUENT NWLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER DVLPMENT.   
...NAME AREA....
NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS THIS PERIOD OF MONSOON PATRN WORKING
NWWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE NAME AREA AS WSW MID/UPR
FLOW PREVAILS.  VERY SCTD SHWRS/TSTM WILL CONTINUE TO DVLP
OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL..WHILE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS OCCUR IN DEEPER MSTR IN THE
SRN/SERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME 0.25-0.50 INCH
AREAL AVG RNFL AMTS WL BE PSBL.
SULLIVAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
                                  
 
24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 226053 231057 238061 250066 256072 262076 267080 274082 
      283084 292084 296085 300086 305092 311108 315109 318108 
      326106 331106 335110 338117 342124 345124 347120 344098 
      342091 338084 334075 331074 328076 327085 323086 321085 
      310082 307081 304079 300074 296068 289062 285056 283056 
      283053 285047 280047 273045 260041 252038 246034 241031 
      236026 230023 
 0.01 232007 239007 247004 255009 264006 267006 269010 270014 
      273020 277025 282033 288041 299046 308052 313056 316056 
      318052 322054 325058 330060 343065 352069 370079 376082 
      380087 390086 396087 401089 404094 404102 400114 405118 
      409120 415122 418127 421133 426131 430127 434124 436124 
      438124 437128 435134 433142 433151 434161 434168 430168 
      424165 422170 420179 423184 427184 429182 436176 440175 
      442177 443182 442186 443188 448191 452192 458185 463181 
      467182 471184 473189 476197 481202 484202 486204 489211 
      493216 495224 497231 501233 504242 508253 510255 514256 
      518258 519262 522264 528246 526236 522229 512212 506197 
      501181 496162 497143 495135 492129 487121 481117 476112 
      471107 460095 451085 444072 441066 438058 435043 433032 
      428030 424030 419031 412032 403032 400031 399028 399004 
      400996 402990 405975 409960 411947 414927 414919 415912 
      418896 422876 427863 431849 435835 439826 443820 454797 
      492742 499727 502714 504706 507698 510689 511683 511678 
      506666 505661 506657 506651 505644 503638 500634 494632 
      488631 482632 477631 472630 466631 463632 460637 457643 
      450657 442670 435684 431691 423701 407725 404727 397730 
      391731 382734 370741 357750 346759 336773 328782 319791 
      308800 303803 297803 286804 276801 267798 258800 252802 
      251807 252814 253818 256819 260822 270827 279830 284832 
      289836 294840 298846 297854 295860 288873 284883 278894 
      267914 256934 251941 249944 244947 231956 
 0.01 523830 519807 514788 512783 508778 500773 496772 488772 
      485774 483780 474803 471808 467813 460824 458830 455835 
      450847 448861 447875 447887 448899 452896 455890 460879 
      463866 465863 466866 469874 472934 475942 476951 477960 
      481967 494983 502995 506999 507998 510991 511983 512965 
      512946 513941 514938 517934 519927 519920 518915 514898 
      509880 508870 507861 507857 511859 514864 518867 523867 
      524865 525861 525850 522834 523830 
 0.01 401827 399824 397827 395832 392839 387848 385854 377870 
      370884 361898 357905 353914 346928 343935 341945 342955 
      343967 344977 347986 353006 356004 358994 360982 362974 
      365968 369966 372963 374959 376953 378944 382929 387909 
      391893 394872 397854 401827 
 0.25 226045 231048 235051 241054 245057 250060 256063 261066 
      264062 263056 258053 253049 247046 242043 236040 232037 
      228034 
 0.25 497680 496674 493671 487670 482673 476678 471683 465691 
      462695 455701 451704 450709 447716 445723 443731 438745 
      432757 426772 420785 417792 415799 415805 418811 421811 
      424808 427802 434790 450765 468739 476727 486714 493705 
      495698 497691 497681 497680 
 0.25 382777 379771 375770 370772 363776 358781 349793 341801 
      333815 326825 318833 313839 312845 311852 308860 302871 
      290891 287896 284903 280916 273939 269952 265962 263969 
      263975 265981 268988 280013 284016 289018 293016 295013 
      296005 295985 295978 296970 301960 308949 310945 316939 
      325932 336924 341919 344913 351901 357890 363879 368867 
      373850 375835 376822 380809 383799 383790 382777 
 0.25 407053 405049 402045 393042 377034 375028 377021 380014 
      386992 388986 387979 385976 382977 375985 370993 367002 
      365012 364026 360036 355037 354041 355044 361046 378053 
      387057 395058 401058 405057 407053 
 0.25 298819 295816 291815 286814 282813 279812 276811 270811 
      267810 266812 268814 270817 273819 277822 280824 284825 
      289825 295824 297822 298819 
 0.50 484697 479695 473698 464708 458714 453720 449727 447734 
      442746 436758 438760 444754 453744 461733 469722 477709 
      481703 484697 
 0.50 377791 377785 375782 373781 369782 363786 358789 347811 
      346817 342824 336834 331844 323853 314863 308872 295890 
      289900 285911 280934 277947 275958 273969 272975 273980 
      274984 275987 277997 281006 285011 289009 289008 288993 
      284983 288971 292964 300953 306943 309938 313934 331920 
      340911 346902 358881 363868 367856 368845 369836 369829 
      374808 377791 
 0.50 394050 392049 389049 386050 389050 392050 394050 
 0.50 376003 377000 375997 374000 373001 372004 371007 373008 
      374007 376004 376003 
 0.50 228041 230043 231044 234045 234046 234045 233043 231041 
      229040 228039 
 1.00 362832 362826 362822 360819 356820 351826 347834 345841 
      343849 341855 338863 331868 322870 316873 311878 305884 
      301890 294902 291909 289916 286930 284939 284945 289949 
      293947 298941 302934 306930 312926 335908 341901 345896 
      351883 357867 361853 363847 363840 362832 
 1.50 357837 352837 348842 348855 346862 344867 337876 333880 
      328883 325884 318883 313884 310887 304894 299899 297904 
      293913 291919 291927 292933 294936 295935 302926 305922 
      311920 329907 335902 339898 344889 347884 350878 353866 
      357855 358850 357841 357837 
 2.00 340890 341885 337885 333889 328893 324895 320897 317898 
      313894 308895 304898 298908 294918 295923 299921 307914 
      311911 315910 326905 333899 340890  
 
B$$