AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
430 AM MDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF                   
PRECIP...SNOW LEVEL...AND T-STORM CHANCES. TIGHTLY WOUND UPR LOW                
VORTEX EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND LATEST RUC HEIGHT AND WIND               
FIELDS CONTINUING TO TREK SEWRD FM ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER EXTREME            
SWRN ARIZONA. QG OMEGA AND HT CHANGE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS SELY PATH              
ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SRN NEW MEXICO NEXT 24-36 HRS...PRETTY MUCH             
TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WEATHER UP HERE. HOWEVER...NOT             
OUT OF THE WOODS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SWRD THRU            
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN               
T-STORMS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT               
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MM5 SHOW THE                 
FRONT THROUGH THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR BY 15Z THIS MORNING...WITH                
BRISK NELY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW                     
INCREASING ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENING                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP ALONG THE FRONT              
RANGE INCREASE TO AROUND 0.40-0.45 INCH BY 21Z...AND WITH DIVERGENCE            
INCREASING ALOFT AS THE UPR LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...SHOW SEE A                
SHOWER DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE MTNS BY 18Z TODAY.                 
HOWEVER...NOT UNTIL AFTER 21Z OR AS LATE AS 00Z/TUE DO I EXPECT TO              
SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME APPEARS GREATEST PRECIP            
AMOUNTS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...HIER                
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PARK COUNTY...AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS IN                
JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. AS FOR SNOW LEVELS...SEE THEM                   
STARTING OUT HIGH TODAY AROUND 9000-9500 FEET...BUT BY                          
00Z/TUE...LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET OR SO BASED ON WETBULB                
ZERO FCST. ITS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 6500 FEET            
BY MIDNIGHT WHEN BEST SNOW ACCUMS LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOW MUCH...STILL             
TOUGH TO SAY EVEN NOW. MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK WAY OVER DOWN. EVEN              
CUTTING THEM IN HALF WOULD GIVE US UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE IN THE             
HIGHER SRN FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA AND LEAVE IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ALL            
THIS. AS FOR T-STORMS...HAVE BACKED OFF OF T-STORM CHANCES FARTHER              
OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE TOO STABLE AND LACKING             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOSER TO THE HIR TERRAIN INCLUDING THE PALMER              
DIVIDE...WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED T-STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
.LONG TERM...WEATHER SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS            
DOWNWARD Q-G VERTICAL MOTION SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                   
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND             
DRYING TAKE HOLD.                                                               
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING             
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  THE LATEST              
NAM AND GFS RUNS ARE STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH THE SHORT WAVE.  THIS             
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
INTO THURSDAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHICS.  IN                 
ADDITION...THE LATEST RUNS ALSO SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E                 
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  IF UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP            
AND COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND FAST ENOUGH...THEN THERE WOULD BE                   
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE                 
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.  A LOT OF                   
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THIS...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.           
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PAST THURSDAY.  WARMER AND DRY WEATHER ON                
TRACK FOR FRIDAY...AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NEXT             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
BAKER/BARJENBRUCH                                                               
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
347 AM MDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE REBOUND IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...                   
CURRENTLY...VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW MELTING OCCURRED YESTERDAY.                    
APPROXIMATELY...A 70 MILE WIDE SNOW FIELD REMAINED FROM TRINIDAD TO             
LAMAR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET YESTERDAY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.            
ALSO...PATCHES OF SNOW REMAINED IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE SAN              
LUIS VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING               
ALOFT PER HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SENSORS AROUND 10K-11K FT MSL...AND                 
APPROACHING 30F WHICH IS 10-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS            
TIME. THEREFORE...THE WARM AIR IS BUILDING ALOFT. THIS WAS IN                   
RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY               
MOVING EASTWARD. NEXT CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPINNING INTO              
SOUTHERN CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES            
ANIMATION. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF...MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL                  
CLOUDS...JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN PER IR                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT             
OF THESE CLOUDS RIGHT NOW. JUST A FEW THINNING PATCHES OF CI/CS                 
MIGRATING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT DISSIPATE             
AS THEY HIT THE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENT FLOW.                                       
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW MOVE EASTWARD AND                 
FLATTEN OUT. THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...TOO.                   
RELATIVELY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.               
WITH JUST SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +4C TO            
+6C OVERHEAD...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES            
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE BIGGEST WARMING SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR               
SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SOME FIERCE SNOW MELT TODAY GIVEN            
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...SUNSHINE...AND WIND PICKING UP. THIS MAKES            
FOR VERY CHALLENGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE FAR                   
SOUTHEAST CORNER AROUND LAMAR. IF THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW CAN MELT            
THIS MORNING AND THE WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LAMAR COULD            
VERY WELL HIT 70F THANKS TO MIXING...OR THE SNOW MELTS SLOWLY AND               
THE WIND DOES NOT PICK UP RESULTING IN A HIGH OF 50F.  TOUGH CALL               
AND WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.                                                  
TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO AZ. SOUTHERLY FLOW                  
INCREASES TONIGHT...SO HIGH TERRAIN FREE-AIR TEMPERATURES COULD BE              
STEADY MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. SHALLOW COLD             
FRONT TAKES AIM ON NORTHERN CO IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN JET STREAM             
SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. FOR                    
CONTINUITY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...              
WILL ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS/WX. METZE                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)                                                  
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE FOR THE LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO BE                
IMPACT THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL HAVE ON REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.           
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW                
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT 12Z MONDAY AND THEN MOVE             
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO                
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.                                    
WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE CWFA            
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY HIGHER                
ELEVATION SNOWS EMBEDDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                      
A RETURN TO WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED            
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY AS A GENERALLY ZONAL TO                     
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALOFT PATTERN EXPECTED.  ANOTHER UPPER                     
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE CWFA               
BY NEXT SATURDAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE              
NOTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
243 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY WILL BE NEAR               
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                      
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH               
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS               
MORNING. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING                    
THROUGH GEORGIA. MSAS INDICATED LI/S NEAR -1 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                
SHEAR WAS VERY STRONG. NEXRAD INDICATED H85 WIND NEAR 45 KNOTS.                 
THE JET WAS NEAR 55 KNOTS OVER GEORGIA. THE LATEST RUC FORECASTED               
H85 WIND TO INCREASE TO NEAR 60 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY                 
12Z. THE KCAE VAD INDICATED MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EARLY                  
THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEAR HAD LIFTED                
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT                    
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND...BUT SURFACE TO 1 KM HELICITY                 
INDICATED A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWED              
SR HELICITY 400 TO 500 M**2/S**2. STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH                 
CROSS TOTALS NEAR 25 AND FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO                   
SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HAIL.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...                                 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY              
AFTERNOON WITH H85 COLD ADVECTION DOMINATING. COLD AIR ALOFT                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH SUPPORTS KEEPING A SMALL POP                  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIND.                 
THE MAV MOS SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO A GENERAL              
WIND ADVISORY.                                                                  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH DIMINISHED           
MIXING BELIEVE WIND SHOULD BE LESS. THE MAV MOS SUPPORTS A LAKE                 
WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE              
MONDAY. THE MOS INDICATED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE                   
NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY               
WITH THE RIDGE CLOSE TO THE AREA.                                               
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK              
LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTS A SMALL POP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                       
OTHERWISE...DRY RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
06Z-10Z...COLD FRONT WEST OF THE REGION WITH STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL               
WINDS 60-65 KT AT 5 THOUSAND FEET PRODUCING STRONG WIND SHEAR.                  
CONDITIONS BECOMING MARGINAL IFR FOR CIGS NEAR 2KFT AND VSBYS 3-4               
MILES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LOWER                        
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE TEMPORARILY.                                          
10Z-14Z...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TAKES THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS            
AWAY. MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR CIGS NEAR 3KFT. VISIBILITIES                   
GENERALLY 7 MILES BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THAT MAY REDUCE                
VSBYS TO 5-6 MILES.                                                             
14Z-18Z UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS AT 3KFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE                  
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS...AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.                       
18Z-06Z...SKIES CLEARING OUT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE             
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                    
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.  WINDS              
WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TUESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DESPITE THE EXPECTED WIND TODAY DO NOT BELIEVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS              
WILL BE REACHED BECAUSE OF HIGH FUEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVE                      
HUMIDITY ABOVE THE CRITERIA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF DATA INDICATE TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR 1 INCH.              
THREE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 3 INCHES. DO NOT PLAN TO               
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT POSSIBLE TRAINING WITH                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED FLOODING                
PROBLEMS IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.                             
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-                
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.            
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
     GAZ040-063>065-077.                                                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                 
     GAZ040-063>065-077.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...05                                                                   
NEAR TERM...05                                                                  
SHORT TERM...01                                                                 
LONG TERM...05                                                                  
AVIATION...01                                                                   
FIRE WEATHER...05                                                               
HYDROLOGY...05                                                                  
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH JUST A FEW                 
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS WHERE NORTH WINDS A BIT                    
STRONGER. HIGHS GETTING BACK TO NORMAL IN THE 60S WITH COOLEST                  
READINGS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.                                               
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS MONSTER STORM OVER LONG ISLAND NY WITH              
973 MB LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH STILL                
AFFECTING EASTERN IL. THIS VERY INTENSE LOW WAS AS DEEP AT 968 MB               
AROUND DAWN JUST SOUTH OF NYC. 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER             
MS AND RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO WI. THIS HIGH                
PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TO IL THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO             
CALM WINDS OVER WESTERN IL. AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY EARLY MORNING WITH             
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...TEMP HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE UPPER 40S             
AND LOWER 50S. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL/SE IL WHILE 30S             
OVER WESTCENTRAL AND SW IL.                                                     
RUC AND WRF SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST                
ACROSS IL TODAY AND SLIP EAST INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH                   
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN               
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED            
CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-57 ESPECIALLY             
NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. 850 MB TEMPS ARE 6 TO 8C THIS AFTERNOON OR             
ABOUT 5C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SUPPORTS WARMER HIGHS IN THE               
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WARMEST READINGS WEST. THIS IS ACTUALLY CLOSE             
TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CONUS AND NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE                  
MIDWEST UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... WITH              
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED AHEAD OF A CLIPPER            
SYSTEM RIDING DOWN THE CREST OF THE RIDGE.                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
WEATHER ACROSS THE NATION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG NOREASTER OFF SANDY            
HOOK NJ... WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.                      
MEANWHILE... A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN              
ARIZONA... WHILE A STRONG SYSTEM LOOMS OVER THE PACIFIC.                        
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF AND THE STRONG EAST COAST STORM...              
SHARP MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST...             
PROMISING FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION              
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                   
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES TO BE WITH A SHORTWAVE                   
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  AS EXPECTED IN A                
COMPLICATED BLOCKING PATTERN... MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE                 
DIVERGENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DROPS DOWN THE                 
CREST OF THE RIDGE... AND ITS SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF            
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  BY ITSELF... THIS NORTHERN             
STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD BE MOVING INTO A              
RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT... WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE                
INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING.                     
HOWEVER... SOME ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT             
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF... INTO THE              
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE/WED.                                               
STILL BELIEVE THE GFS IS MOVING THE CUTOFF AND ITS ATTENDANT                    
MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND NORTH FAR TOO QUICKLY CONSIDERING THE                  
BLOCKING PATTERN UPSTREAM... AND THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE                  
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.  ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...            
AND EVEN IT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.  THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE                
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF            
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LARGELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI... RESULTING IN             
RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TUESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
THE NAM SUPPORTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING               
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY... BUT IT MAY OVER DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM               
DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST IN THE NAM DEPICTION.  WILL STILL NEED TO                 
MONITOR THIS TREND... AS NAM SOLUTION WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUDS            
AND SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT... AND A                 
SLIGHTLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER AIR MID-WEEK.                               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
THE STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM... CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE WEST COAST...               
PROMISES A FAIRLY QUICK BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS               
THE CONUS... AND A SHIFT TO A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN... WITH                  
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE                 
CENTRAL US.  TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES                    
EJECTING FROM THE MEAN WESTERN TROUGH STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...            
BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA              
IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME... BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF                  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
243 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP TOMORROW,              
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.                                                        
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z MAPS HAVE A CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OUT OVER               
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING                   
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH THE 700 AND 850MB LEVELS HAD                 
FAIRLY WARM TEMPS EXTENDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, WITH                   
TEMPS IN THE TEENS C AT 850MB. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WAS BRINGING               
SOME COOLER 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MT AND THE                  
WESTERN DAKOTAS. TONIGHT, THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH                  
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP BRING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH                  
INTO NORTHERN KS. WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE                 
LOW TO MID 40S.                                                                 
THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS                  
THROUGH TX AND OK TOMORROW. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS              
FAIRLY WEAK OVER US, WITH BETTER UPGLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.                 
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD 700MB OMEGA AS THE MAIN                 
LOW COMES OUT, MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. THUS, BUMPED UP POPS                  
OVER THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY                   
WEAK, AROUND 300 J/KG, SO KEPT THE MENTION AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE COME THROUGH BY                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR WILL BE MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE THAN                  
BITTERLY COLD, BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG                  
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP, WE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN                  
MONDAY. LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO                 
NEAR 60.                                                                        
PRECIP MAY STILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY                       
EVENING, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES                
OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A BIT              
OF STRATUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THINK THAT THE GFS IS                 
OVERDONE IN MOISTURE AND FAVOR THE MORE PATCHY NAM AND RUC. KEPT                
LOWS IN THE 40S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN              
SYSTEMS, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVING EAST AND LEE                  
TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH CLEARING SKIES,                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 850MB TEMPS RETURNING TO THE TEENS, HIGHS IN               
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.                                 
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF                
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.                                                
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL              
HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY FORCING A DRYLINE TO FORM OVER WESTERN                  
KANSAS. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS               
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE LOOKS ADEQUATE            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ANOTHER                
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY SATURDAY BY THE GFS, AND A BIT                
SLOWER ON THE ECMWF RUN. ANOTHER DRYLINE SHOULD FORM AGAIN WITH                 
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF              
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE.                                       
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY                
NIGHT WITH 50S IN THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE MILD WITH 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY                
ESPECIALLY BEHIND DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH AND MID               
CLOUDS COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND THE CEILING SLOWING FALLING DURING            
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE               
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM 15 TO 18Z SWITCHING               
THE WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  44  60  42  70 /   0  40  20   0                                           
GCK  43  59  41  71 /  10  30  20   0                                           
EHA  44  60  44  76 /  30  30  20   0                                           
LBL  43  60  41  73 /  20  40  20   0                                           
HYS  44  60  43  68 /   0  30  20   0                                           
P28  46  62  43  69 /   0  50  40   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/06/06                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
113 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                                 
BACK EDGE OF OVERCAST SKIES NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE                       
OVERCAST...BUT ONLY EXTENDS SOME 50 MILE N AND W OF THE BACK EDGE.              
CLEARING LINE WAS ALSO ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS              
OF THE FA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON            
HOURS.  FOR THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT             
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KBWG AND KSDF BEFORE INCREASING TO VFR BY LATE               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  KLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR DUE TO CIGS             
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IF LATER TONIGHT.  WHERE                    
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...VERY GOOD MIXING HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE AND              
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS.  WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY                
GUSTY WINDS IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS SHOULD               
BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT.                         
-MJ                                                                             
.MESO UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER               
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING.  IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM OBS                  
INDICATE GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH             
IN SOME SPOTS. SO WE HAVE INSERTED THAT WORDING INTO THE TEXT AND               
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS.  BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS NOW TAKING ON CLEARING            
FROM MORE OF A WEST TO EAST.  GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF SUNSHINE GENERALLY ALONG             
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.  SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE             
CENTRAL PART OF THE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.            
-MJ                                                                             
.MORNING UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS               
MOVING OUT AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.  VISIBLE SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS                  
MORNING.  BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY            
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ATTM.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH            
THE 12Z RUC LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...WHICH SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DRYING IN            
THE LOW-LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON            
ITS CURRENT TREK...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE OHIO            
RIVER AROUND 18-19Z.  SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER                 
INITIAL CLEARING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY EXCESSIVE.                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY. AS OF RIGHT                
NOW...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH AS             
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR OUT DOWN IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATE              
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE A 5-8 DEGREE RISE                
FROM CURRENT VALUES FROM BWG NE TO LEX.  THUS...WILL TRIM BACK TEMPS            
A BIT IN THE ZONE UPDATE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHERE WE                    
CLEAR...THOSE LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  SO              
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE CLASSIC OHIO VALLEY TEMP                     
GRADIENTS.                                                                      
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE SUNRISE...WE HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT                    
INCREASE IN THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS            
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD TO HARRODSBURG.  SO FOR NOW                
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF LGT RAIN IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH A                  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EAST ZONES THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 00Z                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1100 AM EDT.                    
-MJ                                                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WILL FORM SOMEWHAT OF AN              
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEP PRACTICALLY                
CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.              
CURRENTLY...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CATCHES              
UP WITH AN EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. BY THIS TIME                      
TOMORROW...THIS EAST COAST STORM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR            
NEW YORK CITY.                                                                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF                   
KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION              
WILL INCREASE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING TO            
15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.                                         
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...IN FACT THE                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN DEEPEN THE SATURATION BY LATE MORNING UP TO             
13000 FEET ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.                    
THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DIVING                        
SOUTHWARD...MAY GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT               
RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.               
INITIALLY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW            
SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                     
BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SATURATION DEPTH            
WILL NOT EXTEND INTO THE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE ZONE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL            
FORMATION...ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                           
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KENTUCKY LATE TOMORROW...LOWER LEVELS             
WILL UNDERGO SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                 
SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ALONG OUR WESTERN            
COUNTIES. OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL TAKE               
MUCH LONGER...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE                      
EVENING.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE            
BLUEGRASS...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED AND SUSTAINED             
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 MPH MONDAY MORNING...FEEL THAT                 
WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY. JSD                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
A DEEP MID ATLANTIC COAST CLOSED LOW WILL BRING HAVOC TO THE                    
NORTHEAST SEABOARD BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
EARLY MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY MID DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES              
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN             
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD WARM NICELY TUESDAY               
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.                                                       
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.             
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION             
SO WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN                
SCATTERED AND BRIEF. THE CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCING COOL AIR                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CUT HIGHS SOME AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY.                 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                  
AS THE FORE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST A RIDGE                
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY             
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOR ALL THOSE                  
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SATURDAY TEMPERATURE SHOULD TOP OUT IN              
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  JA                                                
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1241 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.MESO UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER               
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING.  IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM OBS                  
INDICATE GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH             
IN SOME SPOTS. SO WE HAVE INSERTED THAT WORDING INTO THE TEXT AND               
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS.  BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS NOW TAKING ON CLEARING            
FROM MORE OF A WEST TO EAST.  GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF SUNSHINE GENERALLY ALONG             
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.  SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE             
CENTRAL PART OF THE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.            
-MJ                                                                             
.MORNING UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS               
MOVING OUT AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.  VISIBLE SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS                  
MORNING.  BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY            
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ATTM.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH            
THE 12Z RUC LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...WHICH SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DRYING IN            
THE LOW-LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON            
ITS CURRENT TREK...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE OHIO            
RIVER AROUND 18-19Z.  SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER                 
INITIAL CLEARING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY EXCESSIVE.                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY. AS OF RIGHT                
NOW...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH AS             
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR OUT DOWN IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATE              
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE A 5-8 DEGREE RISE                
FROM CURRENT VALUES FROM BWG NE TO LEX.  THUS...WILL TRIM BACK TEMPS            
A BIT IN THE ZONE UPDATE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHERE WE                    
CLEAR...THOSE LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  SO              
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE CLASSIC OHIO VALLEY TEMP                     
GRADIENTS.                                                                      
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE SUNRISE...WE HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT                    
INCREASE IN THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS            
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD TO HARRODSBURG.  SO FOR NOW                
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF LGT RAIN IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH A                  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EAST ZONES THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 00Z                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1100 AM EDT.                    
-MJ                                                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WILL FORM SOMEWHAT OF AN              
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEP PRACTICALLY                
CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.              
CURRENTLY...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CATCHES              
UP WITH AN EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. BY THIS TIME                      
TOMORROW...THIS EAST COAST STORM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR            
NEW YORK CITY.                                                                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF                   
KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION              
WILL INCREASE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING TO            
15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.                                         
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...IN FACT THE                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN DEEPEN THE SATURATION BY LATE MORNING UP TO             
13000 FEET ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.                    
THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DIVING                        
SOUTHWARD...MAY GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT               
RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.               
INITIALLY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW            
SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                     
BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SATURATION DEPTH            
WILL NOT EXTEND INTO THE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE ZONE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL            
FORMATION...ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                           
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KENTUCKY LATE TOMORROW...LOWER LEVELS             
WILL UNDERGO SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                 
SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ALONG OUR WESTERN            
COUNTIES. OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL TAKE               
MUCH LONGER...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE                      
EVENING.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE            
BLUEGRASS...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED AND SUSTAINED             
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 MPH MONDAY MORNING...FEEL THAT                 
WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY. JSD                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
A DEEP MID ATLANTIC COAST CLOSED LOW WILL BRING HAVOC TO THE                    
NORTHEAST SEABOARD BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
EARLY MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY MID DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES              
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN             
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD WARM NICELY TUESDAY               
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.                                                       
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.             
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION             
SO WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN                
SCATTERED AND BRIEF. THE CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCING COOL AIR                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CUT HIGHS SOME AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY.                 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                  
AS THE FORE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST A RIDGE                
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY             
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOR ALL THOSE                  
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SATURDAY TEMPERATURE SHOULD TOP OUT IN              
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  JA                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND              
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. LIFR CEILINGS AT LEX AND BWG WILL LIFT TO IFR               
STATUS BY 14Z...WHILE CEILINGS AT SDF REMAIN IFR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE            
WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL                  
INCREASE DEPTH OF MOIST LOW LAYERS AT LEX AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW                 
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS                  
HOWEVER WILL TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...LIFTING TO 1 TO 3             
THOUSAND FEET. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT SDF AND BWG LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON...WITH LEXINGTON CLEARING OUT LAST. JSD                               
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS               
MOVING OUT AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.  VISIBLE SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS                  
MORNING.  BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY            
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ATTM.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH            
THE 12Z RUC LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...WHICH SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DRYING IN            
THE LOW-LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON            
ITS CURRENT TREK...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE OHIO            
RIVER AROUND 18-19Z.  SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER                 
INITIAL CLEARING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY EXCESSIVE.                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY. AS OF RIGHT                
NOW...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH AS             
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NOT CLEAR OUT DOWN IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATE              
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE A 5-8 DEGREE RISE                
FROM CURRENT VALUES FROM BWG NE TO LEX.  THUS...WILL TRIM BACK TEMPS            
A BIT IN THE ZONE UPDATE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHERE WE                    
CLEAR...THOSE LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  SO              
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE CLASSIC OHIO VALLEY TEMP                     
GRADIENTS.                                                                      
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE SUNRISE...WE HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT                    
INCREASE IN THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS            
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD TO HARRODSBURG.  SO FOR NOW                
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF LGT RAIN IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH A                  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EAST ZONES THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 00Z                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1100 AM EDT.                    
-MJ                                                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WILL FORM SOMEWHAT OF AN              
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEP PRACTICALLY                
CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.              
CURRENTLY...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CATCHES              
UP WITH AN EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. BY THIS TIME                      
TOMORROW...THIS EAST COAST STORM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR            
NEW YORK CITY.                                                                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF                   
KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION              
WILL INCREASE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING TO            
15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.                                         
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...IN FACT THE                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN DEEPEN THE SATURATION BY LATE MORNING UP TO             
13000 FEET ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.                    
THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DIVING                        
SOUTHWARD...MAY GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT               
RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.               
INITIALLY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW            
SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                     
BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SATURATION DEPTH            
WILL NOT EXTEND INTO THE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE ZONE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL            
FORMATION...ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                           
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KENTUCKY LATE TOMORROW...LOWER LEVELS             
WILL UNDERGO SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                 
SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ALONG OUR WESTERN            
COUNTIES. OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL TAKE               
MUCH LONGER...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE                      
EVENING.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE            
BLUEGRASS...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED AND SUSTAINED             
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 MPH MONDAY MORNING...FEEL THAT                 
WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY. JSD                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
A DEEP MID ATLANTIC COAST CLOSED LOW WILL BRING HAVOC TO THE                    
NORTHEAST SEABOARD BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW                  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
EARLY MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY MID DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES              
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN             
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD WARM NICELY TUESDAY               
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.                                                       
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.             
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION             
SO WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN                
SCATTERED AND BRIEF. THE CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCING COOL AIR                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CUT HIGHS SOME AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY.                 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                  
AS THE FORE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST A RIDGE                
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY             
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOR ALL THOSE                  
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SATURDAY TEMPERATURE SHOULD TOP OUT IN              
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  JA                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND              
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. LIFR CEILINGS AT LEX AND BWG WILL LIFT TO IFR               
STATUS BY 14Z...WHILE CEILINGS AT SDF REMAIN IFR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE            
WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL                  
INCREASE DEPTH OF MOIST LOW LAYERS AT LEX AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW                 
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS                  
HOWEVER WILL TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...LIFTING TO 1 TO 3             
THOUSAND FEET. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT SDF AND BWG LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON...WITH LEXINGTON CLEARING OUT LAST. JSD                               
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
LOPRES IN WRN NC ATTM...MVG NE. ALNG THE METRO CORRIDOR...THERE                 
HV BEEN SVRL ATTEMPTS AT A DRY SLOT...EACH OF WHICH HAS FILLED IN.              
SOLID STREAM OF MSTR UP THE SPINE OF THE PTMC HIGHLANDS THO. WL                 
MAKE NO CHGS TO THE FAA...ALTHO MOST OF THAT AREA ALREADY HAS ACTV              
FLW. ALSO FLWS FOR MOST OF THE PTMC HIGHLANDS. SEE SPECIFIC STMTS               
FOR VALID TIMES AND DETAILS.                                                    
RGNL MOSAIC INDICATES THAT BACK EDGE SVRL HRS AWAY. EVEN A LTL                  
ENHANCEMENT IN RAFL RATES THX TO CNVCTV ELEMENTS. RUC/NAM INSIST                
THAT HVYST RAFL WL BE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR BTWN DC-BALT. WL BLEND               
RADAR AND GDNC. OVRALL THEME WL BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ENDING TIME OF              
THE PCPN. FEW OTR CHGS TO GRIDS ATTM.                                           
RUNNING LATE. UPDTS OUT ASAP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...                                                          
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ATTM. IMPVMNT COMES TNGT ONCE LOPRES                
CLEARS AREA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TPLM2 AT STRONG SCA. MOST OTR SITES MARGINAL AT BEST. STILL A                   
POWERFUL CYCLONE HEADING THIS WAY /992 MB IN WRN NC/...SO WL RIDE               
OUT ANY LULL. ALL HEADLINES CONTINUE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 405 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A             
SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. ACARS 400-250MB WIND            
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS               
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A 120-160KT SOUTHWESTERLY            
JET EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 03Z              
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1001MB CYCLONE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALONG            
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM A 1002MB              
CYCLONE IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.                 
ACARS UPPER LEVEL WIND DATA HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHOW A SUBTLE 120-140KT            
SOUTHWESTERLY JETLET ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION              
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LINES UP WELL WHERE JET COUPLING SEEMS TO BE             
OCCURRING. THE FLIP SIDE TO THIS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY SLOT               
(DRAWN IN FROM BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST CONUS CONVECTION) OVERHEAD. AS             
THE JETLET ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES AWAY FROM THE                   
REGION...EXPECT RESULTANT VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO DIMINISH.                    
MEANWHILE...5MB PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL               
VIRGINIA BETWEEN 3-6Z. THERE IS STILL A DYNAMIC SITUATION ACROSS THE            
REGION...EVIDENCED BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN              
THE DRYSLOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE             
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH            
SHOULD LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS               
THE REGION. WHILE 00Z MODEL SUITE (ESPECIALLY GFS AND KLWX WRF-NMM)             
DID NOT CLEARLY INDICATE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...OBSERVATIONAL                 
TRENDS DO SUPPORT MODEL INDICATIONS OF RAIN AXIS DURING THE MORNING             
HOURS.                                                                          
RAIN PROCESS WILL BE EFFICIENT THIS MORNING...OWING TO WARM CLOUD               
DEPTH UP TO 15KFT (-5C LEVEL)...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER               
THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...AND AMOUNT OF LOW                
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS.                                    
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING...WHERE                   
WARMEST HIGHS ARE INDICATED. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN DURING THE               
MID AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE COOLING TEMPERATURES MAY            
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH RAIN.                                       
TONIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD. AS THE COASTAL STORM DEEPENS               
WITHIN THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL                   
SUPPORT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS. WHILE UPPER LOW WILL BE             
NEARBY...EXPECT DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER TO CONTRIBUTE TO DRYING                   
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE                   
UPSLOPE AREAS...00Z NAM AND 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE                  
POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PAN HANDLE              
REGION OF WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WITH SUCH STRONG                         
FLOW...SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE.                                   
HAVE WARMED UP MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO A FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA IN THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT            
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH FOR SUCH A SMALL AREA.                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS EARLY            
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT LIFR-IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.            
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR                     
IMPROVEMENT. GRADIENT BEHIND DEEPENING COASTAL STORM WILL SUPPORT               
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
00Z GFS/ETA MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS 25KTS EARLY            
THIS MORNING....DECREASING TO 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE                  
INCREASING BACK TO 25KTS TONIGHT. 00Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY BUFKIT                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS NEARING GALES AFTER                      
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. EXPECT NW WINDS              
OF NEAR SMALL CRAFT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.                
WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON WED AND THUR AS WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.                                                 
TIDES...                                                                        
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN A HALF FOOT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL             
PREDICTIONS. THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND NOAA            
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL INDICATE WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO              
ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS THIS MORNING. THE LUNAR             
PHASE IS WANING TOWARD A NEW MOON (7% FULL).                                    
WATER LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING AS STRONG                   
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ALLOW POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO                   
DEVELOP. DO NOT EXPECT DEPARTURES TO RISE ABOVE NUISANCE COASTAL                
FLOOD LEVELS GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.                                     
EXPECT BLOWOUT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS            
THE DEEP COASTAL STORM MOVES OFFSHORE.                                          
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING DREARY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONTINUES             
THROUGH THURS THEN A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BEGINS TOWARDS THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE               
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR NYC. BASED UPON 21Z/14 SREFS CENTRAL PRESSURE            
WILL BE 979MB BY 12Z MON. THE 00Z GFS HAS IT DOWN TO 974 MB. BY NOON            
ON MON THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER                 
LEVELS AND BEGINS TO FILL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE            
AREA ON TUE AND WED...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                  
REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. FOR SATURDAY THE HIGH                    
NESTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PERHAPS GIVES THE AREA                 
ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING.                                                        
FOR MON...TWO CONCERNS: WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW             
OVER SOUTHERN NY WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER. STRONG AND GUSTY                    
NORTHWEST WINDS ACCROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND                    
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY                
TYPE OF HIGH WIND WARCH. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUATION             
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES IN UPSLOPE PORTIONS.              
FOR MON NIGHT...COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ARE FORECAST...WITH SOME SPOTS            
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR                
FREEZING. HOWEVER...STRONG NW CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WITH US               
WHICH WLL HELP MINIMZIE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.               
FOR TUE...GRADUAL DRYING AND ABATEMENT OF WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW              
PUSHES OUT TO SEA.                                                              
FOR WED TO SAT...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WED WILL MOVE                
SLOWLY EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE FRI. DID NOT            
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS PART OF THE LONG TERM...AND                    
CONTINUED WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.                      
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-                  
     009>011-013-014-016>018.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY               
     MORNING FOR MDZ501.                                                        
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ036>042-                  
     050>057.                                                                   
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY               
     MORNING FOR WVZ501-503.                                                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>537.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>537.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...HTS                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/SMZ                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
406 PM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
RAIN TONIGHT.                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER KNYC                   
...ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND AN OMEGA BLOCK               
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SEPARATING THESE TWO LOWS. A               
RIDGE WHICH IS PART OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE NAVIGATING THROUGH THIS RIDGE IS OVER EASTERN             
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS INSIST ON             
A NARROW RIDGE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO A             
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS               
FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF                     
MINNESOTA TO A LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A 1020MB HIGH CONTINUES TO              
BUILD OVER MANITOBA PUSHING THIS FRONT ALONG.                                   
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE                
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO INTO WESTERN U.P. ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GENERATE SOME RAIN OVER THE            
AREA...FED BY THE NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE. PLAN TO TRACK THIS              
MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE U.P. FOR AREAS OF RAIN ON              
TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO CAPE IS INDICATED AND THE LI`S WILL BE 8 TO               
14. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THUS DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS            
ACTIVITY. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST.              
NAM/GFS SHOWING RAPID DRYING BY LATE MORNING.                                   
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY              
NIGHT. NAM/GFS SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM               
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SURFACE SUPPORT FOR ANY                     
PRECIPITATION. WILL ADD A CHANCE LATE OVER THE FAR EAST.                        
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. NAM/GFS            
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE BACKING INTO THE WEST END OF THE U.P.                     
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THE               
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST                     
AREA...SO DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.               
AND LI`S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE INTO            
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                                                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND            
THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                      
HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW. THE SURFACE            
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA               
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
ROCKIES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA WILL TEND TO KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY AND STABLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE            
WILL PROCEED THE RIDGE. GFS HAS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH            
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ECMWF HAS A DEEP SHORTWAVE BUT WILL KEEP              
THE SHORTWAVE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS                   
SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY. THUS WILL              
KEEP THE RAIN OUT.                                                              
THE SOUNDING FORECAST STILL KEEPING EVERYTHING VERY DRY BELOW 850MB             
...SO PLAN TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE              
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE DEEP MOISTURE               
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ON                       
SATURDAY...THUS WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE                
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW               
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER EASTERN                    
ONTARIO...AND THE LI`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10. DO NOT EXPECT              
ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE 0 LI`S                 
OVER WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER             
THE CENTRAL U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND            
LI`S SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE REAL POSSIBILITY.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
320 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
OVER THE EAST COAST...CONSISTING OF UPPER LOWS AROUND THE                       
DELMARVA AREA AND LAKE ERIE. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE HELPING IN                  
BRINGING AN ABNORMALLY STRONG NOR`EASTER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S...WITH            
A 979MB SURFACE LOW NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY. TO THE WEST OF               
THE TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO              
NW ONTARIO. WITH UPPER MICHIGAN IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM             
INL...GRB AND CWPL HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.                  
THUS...A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN HAS SET UP...AND                 
TEMPERATURES INLAND HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20S. FARTHER               
WEST...A SHRTWV TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND               
MONTANA...BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A MUCH LARGER TROUGH MOVING                  
ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...COMBINED             
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT             
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN LAKE                   
WINNIPEG...HAS HELPED SUPPORT EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE            
DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A DRY 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING HAS                
KEPT MUCH OF THE PCPN FAR TO THE NORTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA               
WHERE THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING DEPICTED MORE MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH IS A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS               
FROM NE MANITOBA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...               
850MB TEMPS AT 00Z WERE 13C AT BIS AND 19C AT UNR. COMPARE THIS TO              
BEHIND THE FRONT AT CYQD WHERE THE READING WAS 4C. HOWEVER...ALL OF             
THESE READINGS ARE WARMER THAN OVER THE CWA...WHICH WERE SHOWN                  
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C PER RUC ANALYSIS. NONETHELESS...STRONG APRIL                 
SUNSHINE ALLOWED INLAND HIGHS YESTERDAY TO REACH THE LOW 50S.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                  
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NOR`EASTER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY                     
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR NEW YORK CITY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS            
OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BY 00Z. A            
FEW HIGH CLOUDS TOPPING THIS RIDGE MAY CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE                
DAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WARMER            
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0-2C AT 18Z ALONG WITH STRONG SUNSHINE SHOULD               
ALLOW BOTH INLAND LOCATIONS AND THOSE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN (DUE TO               
NORTH WINDS) TO CLIMB EASILY INTO THE 50S. GIVEN THAT IT MANAGED TO             
GET UP TO 56 AT IRON MOUNTAIN YESTERDAY SUGGESTS THEY SHOULD BE ABLE            
TO MAKE 60...WHICH THE MET GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS. LAKE BREEZES ALONG              
WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE                    
SUPERIOR COOLER...BUT MOST OF THEM SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY              
SINCE THE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHTER.                                      
TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MONTANA SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF               
GRAND FORKS AT 00Z. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF            
THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NW ONTARIO...THOUGH                   
IMAGINE THE CLOUD BASES WILL HAVE TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BECAUSE OF              
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN ADDITION...DUE TO DEEPER DRY AIR OVER OUR             
CWA...THE PCPN AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY NARROW. SINCE RIDGING WILL BE              
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING              
INLAND...THE SHRTWV TROUGH WILL END UP DIGGING SE INTO THE WESTERN              
PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PCPN ENTER              
THE WESTERN CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PERHAPS REACH AS FAR EAST             
AS MARQUETTE COUNTY BY 12Z. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM              
AND GFS QPF FIELDS. AS FAR AS TYPE GOES...LATEST GFS AND NAM                    
SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING RAIN AS THE              
MAIN TYPE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE TOO GIVEN THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE RIDGE...THOUGH IT SHOULD COOL SOME DUE TO EVAPORATION. MOST            
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE                 
CLOUDS COME IN...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING THAT AREA TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S.                   
TUESDAY...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO            
THE WEST COAST...FURTHER RIDGING WILL BE BUILT UP ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CWA WILL             
CONTINUE TO BE SENT SOUTHWARDS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT              
TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN (GFS/NAM) OR THROUGH WISCONSIN (UKMET).            
IT SEEMS AT LEAST FROM TRENDS THAT THE FARTHER WEST TRACK MIGHT BE A            
BETTER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS A RIDGE (ALBEIT                     
WEAKENING) BETWEEN IT AND THE NOR`EASTER. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO             
FOLLOW THE UKMET. OVER TIME...THE MODELS CONVERGE TO THE UKMET                  
SOLUTION. FOR THE CWA...THE IMPACT OF THIS DIFFERENCE DOES NOT                  
APPEAR TO BE TOO IMPORTANT...SINCE THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL FORCING                
WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS NOTED BY QPF FIELDS TOO...WHICH                
DIMINISH. IN FACT...THE RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER EAST THAN                  
MARQUETTE COUNTY DUE TO THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE EASTERN CWA               
AND THE SHRTWV TROUGH DIVING SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED POPS IN            
THE EAST. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AT LEAST              
THROUGH THE MORNING...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL END UP COOLER THAN THOSE               
TODAY. NONETHELESS...SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW THE                 
INLAND AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S. COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED            
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NW              
ONTARIO...RESULTING IN A BREEZY NORTH WIND.                                     
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PATTERN OVER THE CWA CHANGES VERY                 
LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STUCK/BUILDING UP               
INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS              
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO MISSOURI. ENE FLOW BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE              
AND THE NOR`EASTER SLOWLY HEADING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP              
BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD. THIS MOISTURE IS            
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF AN MVFR STRATUS DECK...AT A                       
MINIMUM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REALLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON              
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE GFS AND NAM THAT EVEN SOME               
QPF COULD BE PRODUCED DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING. HOWEVER...                
GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND TIMING ISSUES OF WHEN THE STRATUS              
COMES IN...HAVE DECLINED AT THE MOMENT TO PUT ANY POPS IN THE FCST.             
THE ENE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING COOLER AIR INTO THE                      
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE              
THE COLD MARINE AIR ADVECTS IN. TUE NIGHT TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...              
BUT LOWERED WEDNESDAY HIGHS QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD             
COVER MOVING IN. WARMEST TEMPS ON WED WILL OCCUR NEAR THE WISCONSIN             
BORDER WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.                                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY                     
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY...AS THE EAST COAST                           
TROUGH/NOR`EASTER MOVE FARTHER EAST AND ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO                
BUILD IN. THUS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THU...THOUGH A             
NE SURFACE WIND SHOULD STILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN              
THE LOW 40S. CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP             
MINS UP AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON TUE MAY              
IMPACT THE CWA LATE FRIDAY AS INDICATED IN THE 00Z                              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN...THUS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM OKAY             
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS            
FEATURE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..             
WARM ADVECTION DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGING MAY RESULT IN A FEW                  
SHOWERS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR                
PCPN IS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIFTS              
OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DEEP SYSTEM WHICH IS              
PROGGED TO HEAD UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS                 
CORRECT...SOME PLACES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA COULD TOUCH 70F AS            
850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 12C AT 00Z MON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
348 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE OVERNIGHT                  
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE                      
HURON...WITH A DEEP TROUGH DRAPED INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE RIVER              
VALLEY. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH THROUGH THE              
DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO OVER SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LAKE               
HURON LOW ARE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS PRODUCED A FEW CLOUDS OVER             
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES. TO THE WEST A LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT                
LINKS THIS LOW WITH ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND             
COLORADO.                                                                       
THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER EASTERN                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND END UP OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.              
THE RIDGE WILL FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH                
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST HUDSON                
BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN                  
DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP            
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT ALLOWING              
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD MAKE FORECASTING THE                  
TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE CALLING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW            
TO MID 20S SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. TRAJECTORY FORECAST DRAWING THE               
AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...                
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WILL DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...              
PLAN TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. THE DRY STABLE AIR WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUN WHICH WILL MAKE A DAY            
SIMILAR TODAY SO WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME OR A                 
LITTLE HIGHER.                                                                  
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE             
COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL PUSH              
INTO EASTERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WITH THE Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.                   
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 6C AT            
900MB OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. AND AROUND 0C OVER THE NORTH.                      
THEREFORE...EXPECTING TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTH              
AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO WESTERN              
ONTARIO. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY ABOVE 850MB. SOUNDING DATA SHOW               
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF                 
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL REACH THE GROUND. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.                                                 
THE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY STABLE AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE               
SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN            
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                          
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                 
WHERE THERE IS MINOR DIFFERENCES...THE NCEP ENSEMBLE FAVORS MORE                
WITH THE GFS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND WITH THE ECMWF OVER             
THE ROCKIES AND THE WEST COAST. BY DAY 6 IT APPEARS THAT THE                    
ENSEMBLE FAVOR MORE OF COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF ECMWF AND GFS.                    
CONSIDERING THE TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OVER THE LAST FEW             
DAYS...PLAN TO FOLLOW THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL             
SHIFT FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO A HIGH OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON               
BAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTAS. WEAK                    
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST            
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE BLANKETS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY              
DRY AIR MASS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.                    
THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.             
THE NORTH DAKOTA LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE                     
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE WILL RUN UP AGAINST THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES AND STALL OUT. MODELS SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLIDE              
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE DRY                   
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.                                           
THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL WEAKEN AS IT BLANKETS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY               
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY              
SUNDAY MORNING AND PROGRESSING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA NEXT SUNDAY.            
WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL            
SYSTEM AND SHOULD SUPPORT GENERATING SOME RAIN OVER THE FORECAST                
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED...BUT SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A            
TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A RIDGE WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE                
PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH BEGINNING TO SPLIT              
UP WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE            
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR TIMMINS                  
ONTARIO AND A STRONG SHRTWV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN                        
MISSISSIPPI. 500MB TEMPS WERE RELATIVELY CHILLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF             
THE UPPER LOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE 00Z RUC ANALYSIS                   
SHOWING READINGS OF -30C. DAYTIME HEATING YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SOME             
SURFACE MOISTURE AND THESE COOL READINGS HELPED DEVELOP A FEW                   
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THESE WERE            
INSTABILITY BASED...THEY HAVE COMPLETELY DIMINISHED. IN FACT...                 
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS              
ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO AT THE LEAST THE WESTERN 2/3 OF            
THE CWA...BASED ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 00Z CWPL                
SOUNDING (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE SOUNDING WAS 0.20 INCHES AND IT             
WAS ALSO INVERTED-V UP TO 700MB). AT THE SURFACE...1016MB HIGH                  
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...              
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN 995MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR ASHEVILLE NORTH                   
CAROLINA AND A 1003MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM                       
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY             
WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS                
HELPED SOME INLAND LOCATIONS DROP INTO THE LOW 20S.                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PCPN              
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                           
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHRTWV OVER MISSISSIPPI LIFTS UP ALONG THE                
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR ASHEVILLE TO GO               
INTO BOMBOGENESIS AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 983MB BY 00Z NEAR ATLANTIC               
CITY NJ...THE UPPER LOW NEAR TIMMINS WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD. BY               
00Z...THE MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL. SOME MID            
CLOUDS OVER NE ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY IMPACT THE                  
EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE PLAINS RIDGE MOVING                   
EASTWARD. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD               
CONTINUE TO DRIVE DRIER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM NW ONTARIO...              
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE               
REST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP IN              
KEEPING COOL READINGS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. INLAND...STRONG MIXING UP            
TO AT LEAST 800MB SHOULD OCCUR...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND                    
-4C...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO             
THE MID TEENS.                                                                  
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ITS              
PHASING WITH THE STRENGTHENING NOR`EASTER...WHICH DEEPENS TO 974MB              
NEAR NEW YORK CITY AT 12Z MON. WHILE PLENTY OF WATER...WIND AND                 
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM...THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND                     
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE             
CWA. AT 12Z MON...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE                
DULUTH AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL REMAIN. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY             
AIR SHOULD SETUP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER             
SNOWPACK AREAS. THE COOLEST INLAND AREAS MAY DROP AS FAR AS THE MID             
TEENS...ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED AROUND 0.20              
OF AN INCH.                                                                     
MONDAY...THE SPLITTING UP WEST COAST TROUGH...IN PARTICULAR THE                 
NORTHERN PORTION SHRTWV WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD UP TO THIS               
TIME...WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE               
CWA BY 00Z. THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z. SUBSIDENCE             
FROM THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA PCPN FREE.            
SKIES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH                 
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG             
WITH DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...AT LEAST TO               
825MB FOR INLAND AREAS. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 0C AT                   
18Z...INLAND AREAS SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 60. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE                
SUPERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER READINGS DUE TO BOTH LAKE BREEZES               
AND STILL A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY LAKE BREEZE ALONG LAKE                 
MICHIGAN APPEARS TO OCCUR IN MENOMINEE COUNTY...THUS MUCH OF THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN AREA SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OF THE              
NORTH WIND.                                                                     
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHRTWV OVER              
NW MN IS PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH            
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AND UKMET. GIVEN THE            
SLOW NATURE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUSH EASTWARD DUE TO THE STRONG               
NOR`EASTER AHEAD OF IT...FEEL THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS MIGHT              
BE BETTER TO FOLLOW. TRENDS IN THE NAM WITH THIS SHRTWV ARE ALSO                
SLOWER. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV            
ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA DRY MONDAY NIGHT. THE            
DRY AIR IN PLACE BEFORE THE SHRTWV ARRIVAL ALSO SUPPORTS A DRIER                
FORECAST. REGARDING PCPN TYPE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE PCPN               
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
U.P. WHERE PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/UKMET ARE COOLER. ALTHOUGH LOW             
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST ARE DEPICTED BELOW FREEZING...THERE                
SHOULD NOT BE ANY FREEZING RAIN ISSUE SINCE THESE LOW TEMPS WILL                
OCCUR DURING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE THICKER CLOUD                 
ARRIVAL. ONCE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB             
BACK UP TO AT OR AROUND 32. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALSO CHANGE ANY              
SNOW OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV CONTINUES TO                  
CROSS...HOWEVER THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PCPN LEFT IF THE GFS IS                   
CORRECT. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE DYNAMICAL FORCING              
IS LOST. CLOUD COVER TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER 850MB TEMPS AND HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA RESULTING IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL               
FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY...ON THE               
ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES.                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...ANOTHER TROUGH PROGGED TO DIVE INTO                  
THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER RIDGE IN               
THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE MAY TAKE A COUPLE              
DAYS TO PUSH EASTWARD DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST                 
COAST (COMBINATION OF TUESDAYS SHRTWV AND THE NOR`EASTER SLOWLY                 
HEADING EAST). SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO WRAP THEMSELVES BACK                  
WESTWARD INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A STRONG HIGH OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHING DRY AIR IN ON NE WINDS...THEY SHOULDNT GET             
TOO FAR WEST. ON FRIDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE SHRTWV AT THE            
BASE OF THE NEW WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING UP INTO NORTHERN MN WHILE             
ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA. LATER FORECASTS MAY                
NEED A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH THE UKMET STILL              
SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY INTACT OVER THE CWA...WILL NOT                   
INCLUDE ANY PCPN CHANCES IN THIS FORECAST. INDICATIONS ARE ALSO                 
APPARENT WITH THIS MODEL SUITE AND EVEN THOSE YESTERDAY THAT THE                
OMEGA BLOCK WHICH FORMS MID-WEEK WILL NOT BE STAGNANT. IN FACT...IT             
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY TRY TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS               
THE NEXT CALIFORNIA SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS...                  
BRINGING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
205 PM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD /WED NIGHT-THU/ WILL STILL                     
FEATURE LEFT OVER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE MASSIVE CUTOFF                   
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL LOOKS COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR                 
SOME SHSN...BUT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE DAY SHOULD ENSURE                   
ONLY RAIN DURING THE DAY.                                                       
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA              
EVOLVES INTO AN IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH                
PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL               
BRING BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA                  
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY             
GOOD THING IN TERMS OF HYDRO AS IT APPEARS THE MODERATING TREND                 
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO ENSURE A SLOW RELEASE OF THE NEW SNOWPACK                
INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON             
THIS WITH RIVER LEVELS QUITE HIGH EVEN BEFORE THIS EVENT.                       
THE RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER US THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK                 
DOWN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS BY MONDAY...BUT THIS TIME THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE                 
FORM OF RAIN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /161800Z-171800Z/...                                                  
WIDELY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ATTM WITH STRONG SNOW BAND SET UP JUST               
WEST OF KSYR EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH KELM AND KITH AND THEN                     
CURLING SOUTHEAST TO KAVP. WITHIN THE BAND...VLIFR AND LIFR                     
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR                  
CIGS. KBGM AND KSYR ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE BAND WITH SOME                       
IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGH IFR/ LOW MVFR CONDITIONS. KRME...WHERE                 
PCP HAS GENERALLY ENDED ATTM IS VFR WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.                
EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FOUR HOURS                  
WITH POSSIBLE DETERIORATION AT KBGM/KRME WITH NEW ECHOES NOW OVER               
DELEWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES MOVING WEST. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THIS                   
EVENING...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE               
AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MVFR WITH                    
INTERMITTENT IFR PERIODS INSIDE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH A FEW REMAINING                  
SNOW SHOWERS. DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME                       
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH POSSIBLE SNOW               
AT KBGM. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AS THE MORNING                          
PROGRESSES. MFVR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT AT KAVP              
WHERE LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1157 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS ON NW PERIPHERY OF COASTAL BOMB WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BE FED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME FILLING/WEAKENING NOTED AND               
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COUPLE WRINKLES WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL                       
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BESIDES SFC                 
TEMPS WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE MID 30S...DEEPER WARM                   
850-925 MB AIR WILL ALSO KEEP WRAPPING BACK INTO CNY/NEPA WITH                  
SOME COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING BACK INTO THE POCONOS. HAVE ALREADY                  
SEEN MIX WITH RAIN IN THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN SUSQUEHANNA               
REGION NW CATSKILLS MOVING WESTWARD...WITH AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR                
SW CATSKILLS (SULLIVAN CO) THUS FAR. ALSO...MILDER COLUMN WILL                  
FORCE DENDRITIC ZONE HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
MORE INEFFICIENT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. THAT COUPLED WITH SOME                   
FIZZLING OF DEF ZONE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL HELP TO GIVE US               
ONLY ANOTHER 1-4 ELEVATION DEPENDENT INCHES...AND MAINLY SLUSH ON ROADS.        
WINTER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED AS WE HAVE ALREADY HAD             
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS RANGING VASTLY FROM 5-7 INCHES VALLEYS TO 14-15              
INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF CNY INTO NRN TIER PA.              
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE TOWARD THE WB-SCRANTON               
METRO AREA...EXCEPT ISOLD SPOTS IN NRN POCONOS MAY HAVE NEAR 10                 
INCHES WAY UP HIGH. SULLIVAN COUNTY NY SLAMMED WITH FLOODING                    
RAINS. POWER OUTAGES GALORE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW LADEN TREES...AND                 
REPORTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OF MANY PROBLEMS IN MANY COUNTIES. ONLY            
SIG CHANGE TO ANYTHING WAS TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR DELAWARE-                    
SULLIVAN- PIKE. FLOOD WARNINGS IN PLACE HANDLING THAT SITUATION                 
FINE...SO SIMPLIFIED THINGS.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                             
AVIATION /161200Z-171200Z/...                                                   
DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS                  
MORNING. LIFR/IFR VSBYS PREDOMINANT FOR NEXT FEW HRS IN MOST INTENSE            
SNOW BANDS. CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR DRNG THE AFTERNOON                
WITH A LITTLE MORE MIXING OCCURRING. HOWEVER INTENSE MESOSCALE                  
SNOW BAND CUD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDS THRU                          
18Z...ESPECIALLY IN KSYR/KBGM/KITH AND KELM. SNOW SHOWERS BECOME                
SCTD ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BTWN                      
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KTS EXPECTED THRU 01Z BEFORE SLOWLY                 
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 453 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
NOREASTER CONTINUES TO BLANKET UPSTATE NY AND NEPA WITH SNOW/HEAVY              
RAIN. 971MB SFC LOW IS SITTING NEAR THE NY BIGHT THIS MORNING AND               
FLINGING SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND BACK INTO THE FA. SNOWFALL                     
REPORTS ON AVG RUNNING ARND SIX INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO              
BTWN 2-3 IN THE VALLEYS. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE              
IMAGINATION BUT THINK LATEST FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE WITHIN                    
REACH. INTENSE BAND IS LOCATED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR PRESENTLY                    
WITH 1/2-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IN THIS BAND. HAVE AVGD AN INCH PER                 
HOUR FOR THE PAST 6 HRS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO                   
CONTINUE UNTIL APPROX 12Z.                                                      
THE BIG MONKEY WRENCH IN THIS FCST IS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO                
NEPA. THIS IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST...A LITTLE FURTHER THAN               
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...NAM CONSISTENTLY SHOWED QPF SLACKING              
OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WAS SOME CONCERN                  
THIS WUD BRING PCPN TO AN END QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT EAST OF                
THE I-81 CORRIDOR...LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW PCPN CONTINUALLY                   
DEVELOPING. THUS...HAVE KEPT HEAVY SNOW IN FOR GOOD PART OF THE                 
DAY FOR ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOKS TO RANGE                  
ANYWHERE FROM 4-12 INCHES...LOWEST IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGHEST ON                
THE HILLTOPS.                                                                   
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS FLOODING IN THE WRN CATSKILLS TODAY.                     
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST 24                
HRS. CUD SEE ADDNL AMOUNTS OF NR AN INCH THROUGH NOON                           
TODAY...LEADING TO CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. ALREADY HAVE                  
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN                       
COUNTIES. THUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT                       
TRENDS...HAVE DROPPED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN                  
WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST. DELAWARE               
WAS A TRICKIER CALL WITH RAIN IN THE EAST AND SNOW IN THE WEST.                 
OPTED TO LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING BUT PROBABLY ONLY                 
LOOKING AT 5-8 INCH (MINIMAL WARNING) AMOUNTS.                                  
HAVE ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS OVER EASTERN ONEIDA AS                    
NAM/RUC BRING 850/800MB TEMPS > 0C INTO THIS AREA THIS MORNING.                 
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR A TIME AND                   
REDUCE AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO A 4-8 INCH RANGE OVER THE FAR EAST.                 
ALL IN ALL...TAPERED DOWN AMOUNTS MOST AREAS FOR STORM TOTALS.                  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH THE                 
MOST INTENSE RATES THRU 12Z. ACCUM PAST THAT POINT MAY BE HARD TO               
COME BY UNLESS SNOW CAN FALL AT AN EXTREMELY INTENSE RATE.                      
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BE FALLING ON EXISTING SNOW COVER SO MAY BE                 
EASIER TO ACCUMULATE THAN IF IT WERE FALLING ON BARE GROUND.                    
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-               
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                   
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-               
     039-043.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-            
     044-047-072.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...JMA                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1157 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS ON NW PERIPHERY OF COASTAL BOMB WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BE FED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME FILLING/WEAKENING NOTED AND               
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COUPLE WRINKLES WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL                       
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BESIDES SFC                 
TEMPS WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE MID 30S...DEEPER WARM                   
850-925 MB AIR WILL ALSO KEEP WRAPPING BACK INTO CNY/NEPA WITH                  
SOME COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING BACK INTO THE POCONOS. HAVE ALREADY                  
SEEN MIX WITH RAIN IN THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN SUSQUEHANNA               
REGION NW CATSKILLS MOVING WESTWARD...WITH AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR                
SW CATSKILLS (SULLIVAN CO) THUS FAR. ALSO...MILDER COLUMN WILL                  
FORCE DENDRITIC ZONE HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
MORE INEFFICIENT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. THAT COUPLED WITH SOME                   
FIZZLING OF DEF ZONE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL HELP TO GIVE US               
ONLY ANOTHER 1-4 ELEVATION DEPENDENT INCHES...AND MAINLY SLUSH ON ROADS.        
WINTER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED AS WE HAVE ALREADY HAD             
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS RANGING VASTLY FROM 5-7 INCHES VALLEYS TO 14-15              
INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF CNY INTO NRN TIER PA.              
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE TOWARD THE WB-SCRANTON               
METRO AREA...EXCEPT ISOLD SPOTS IN NRN POCONOS MAY HAVE NEAR 10                 
INCHES WAY UP HIGH. SULLIVAN COUNTY NY SLAMMED WITH FLOODING                    
RAINS. POWER OUTAGES GALORE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW LADEN TREES...AND                 
REPORTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OF MANY PROBLEMS IN MANY COUNTIES. ONLY            
SIG CHANGE TO ANYTHING WAS TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR DELAWARE-                    
SULLIVAN- PIKE. FLOOD WARNINGS IN PLACE HANDLING THAT SITUATION                 
FINE...SO SIMPLIFIED THINGS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                             
AVIATION /161200Z-171200Z/...                                                   
DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS                  
MORNING. LIFR/IFR VSBYS PREDOMINANT FOR NEXT FEW HRS IN MOST INTENSE            
SNOW BANDS. CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR DRNG THE AFTERNOON                
WITH A LITTLE MORE MIXING OCCURRING. HOWEVER INTENSE MESOSCALE                  
SNOW BAND CUD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDS THRU                          
18Z...ESPECIALLY IN KSYR/KBGM/KITH AND KELM. SNOW SHOWERS BECOME                
SCTD ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BTWN                      
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KTS EXPECTED THRU 01Z BEFORE SLOWLY                 
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 453 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
NOREASTER CONTINUES TO BLANKET UPSTATE NY AND NEPA WITH SNOW/HEAVY              
RAIN. 971MB SFC LOW IS SITTING NEAR THE NY BIGHT THIS MORNING AND               
FLINGING SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND BACK INTO THE FA. SNOWFALL                     
REPORTS ON AVG RUNNING ARND SIX INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO              
BTWN 2-3 IN THE VALLEYS. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE              
IMAGINATION BUT THINK LATEST FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE WITHIN                    
REACH. INTENSE BAND IS LOCATED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR PRESENTLY                    
WITH 1/2-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IN THIS BAND. HAVE AVGD AN INCH PER                 
HOUR FOR THE PAST 6 HRS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO                   
CONTINUE UNTIL APPROX 12Z.                                                      
THE BIG MONKEY WRENCH IN THIS FCST IS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO                
NEPA. THIS IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST...A LITTLE FURTHER THAN               
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...NAM CONSISTENTLY SHOWED QPF SLACKING              
OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WAS SOME CONCERN                  
THIS WUD BRING PCPN TO AN END QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT EAST OF                
THE I-81 CORRIDOR...LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW PCPN CONTINUALLY                   
DEVELOPING. THUS...HAVE KEPT HEAVY SNOW IN FOR GOOD PART OF THE                 
DAY FOR ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOKS TO RANGE                  
ANYWHERE FROM 4-12 INCHES...LOWEST IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGHEST ON                
THE HILLTOPS.                                                                   
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS FLOODING IN THE WRN CATSKILLS TODAY.                     
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST 24                
HRS. CUD SEE ADDNL AMOUNTS OF NR AN INCH THROUGH NOON                           
TODAY...LEADING TO CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. ALREADY HAVE                  
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN                       
COUNTIES. THUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT                       
TRENDS...HAVE DROPPED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN                  
WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST. DELAWARE               
WAS A TRICKIER CALL WITH RAIN IN THE EAST AND SNOW IN THE WEST.                 
OPTED TO LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING BUT PROBABLY ONLY                 
LOOKING AT 5-8 INCH (MINIMAL WARNING) AMOUNTS.                                  
HAVE ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS OVER EASTERN ONEIDA AS                    
NAM/RUC BRING 850/800MB TEMPS > 0C INTO THIS AREA THIS MORNING.                 
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR A TIME AND                   
REDUCE AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO A 4-8 INCH RANGE OVER THE FAR EAST.                 
ALL IN ALL...TAPERED DOWN AMOUNTS MOST AREAS FOR STORM TOTALS.                  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH THE                 
MOST INTENSE RATES THRU 12Z. ACCUM PAST THAT POINT MAY BE HARD TO               
COME BY UNLESS SNOW CAN FALL AT AN EXTREMELY INTENSE RATE.                      
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BE FALLING ON EXISTING SNOW COVER SO MAY BE                 
EASIER TO ACCUMULATE THAN IF IT WERE FALLING ON BARE GROUND.                    
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS                   
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RETURNING               
US TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS                
ARE BREAKING THIS PATTERN DOWN A DAY OR SO TOO SOON...BUT AT THE                
MOMENT THIS IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS               
OR THE MREF ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED PATTERN                              
EVOLUTION...CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST                   
WEDS-THURS UNDER THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW. LATEST MEX                 
GUIDANCE LOOKS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE WITH THE ENSEMBLE 925 MB              
T PREDICTIONS...OR THE HPC FCSTS SO WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE MEX                  
WEDS-THURS. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP FRI...WITH SWLY FLOW                  
THEN DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEKEND SO MORE SUNSHINE IS PLANNED                
FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                  
HPC/MEX GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE DAYS 6-7.                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-               
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                   
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-               
     039-043.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-            
     044-047-072.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAB                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
725 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /161200Z-171200Z/...                                                  
DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS                  
MORNING. LIFR/IFR VSBYS PREDOMINANT FOR NEXT FEW HRS IN MOST INTENSE            
SNOW BANDS. CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR DRNG THE AFTERNOON                
WITH A LITTLE MORE MIXING OCCURRING. HOWEVER INTENSE MESOSCALE                  
SNOW BAND CUD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDS THRU                          
18Z...ESPECIALLY IN KSYR/KBGM/KITH AND KELM. SNOW SHOWERS BECOME                
SCTD ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BTWN                      
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KTS EXPECTED THRU 01Z BEFORE SLOWLY                 
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 453 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
NOREASTER CONTINUES TO BLANKET UPSTATE NY AND NEPA WITH SNOW/HEAVY              
RAIN. 971MB SFC LOW IS SITTING NEAR THE NY BIGHT THIS MORNING AND               
FLINGING SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND BACK INTO THE FA. SNOWFALL                     
REPORTS ON AVG RUNNING ARND SIX INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO              
BTWN 2-3 IN THE VALLEYS. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE              
IMAGINATION BUT THINK LATEST FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE WITHIN                    
REACH. INTENSE BAND IS LOCATED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR PRESENTLY                    
WITH 1/2-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IN THIS BAND. HAVE AVGD AN INCH PER                 
HOUR FOR THE PAST 6 HRS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO                   
CONTINUE UNTIL APPROX 12Z.                                                      
THE BIG MONKEY WRENCH IN THIS FCST IS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO                
NEPA. THIS IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST...A LITTLE FURTHER THAN               
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...NAM CONSISTENTLY SHOWED QPF SLACKING              
OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WAS SOME CONCERN                  
THIS WUD BRING PCPN TO AN END QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT EAST OF                
THE I-81 CORRIDOR...LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW PCPN CONTINUALLY                   
DEVELOPING. THUS...HAVE KEPT HEAVY SNOW IN FOR GOOD PART OF THE                 
DAY FOR ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOKS TO RANGE                  
ANYWHERE FROM 4-12 INCHES...LOWEST IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGHEST ON                
THE HILLTOPS.                                                                   
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS FLOODING IN THE WRN CATSKILLS TODAY.                     
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST 24                
HRS. CUD SEE ADDNL AMOUNTS OF NR AN INCH THROUGH NOON                           
TODAY...LEADING TO CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. ALREADY HAVE                  
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN                       
COUNTIES. THUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT                       
TRENDS...HAVE DROPPED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN                  
WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST. DELAWARE               
WAS A TRICKIER CALL WITH RAIN IN THE EAST AND SNOW IN THE WEST.                 
OPTED TO LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING BUT PROBABLY ONLY                 
LOOKING AT 5-8 INCH (MINIMAL WARNING) AMOUNTS.                                  
HAVE ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS OVER EASTERN ONEIDA AS                    
NAM/RUC BRING 850/800MB TEMPS > 0C INTO THIS AREA THIS MORNING.                 
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR A TIME AND                   
REDUCE AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO A 4-8 INCH RANGE OVER THE FAR EAST.                 
ALL IN ALL...TAPERED DOWN AMOUNTS MOST AREAS FOR STORM TOTALS.                  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH THE                 
MOST INTENSE RATES THRU 12Z. ACCUM PAST THAT POINT MAY BE HARD TO               
COME BY UNLESS SNOW CAN FALL AT AN EXTREMELY INTENSE RATE.                      
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BE FALLING ON EXISTING SNOW COVER SO MAY BE                 
EASIER TO ACCUMULATE THAN IF IT WERE FALLING ON BARE GROUND.                    
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS                   
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RETURNING               
US TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS                
ARE BREAKING THIS PATTERN DOWN A DAY OR SO TOO SOON...BUT AT THE                
MOMENT THIS IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS               
OR THE MREF ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED PATTERN                              
EVOLUTION...CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST                   
WEDS-THURS UNDER THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW. LATEST MEX                 
GUIDANCE LOOKS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE WITH THE ENSEMBLE 925 MB              
T PREDICTIONS...OR THE HPC FCSTS SO WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE MEX                  
WEDS-THURS. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP FRI...WITH SWLY FLOW                  
THEN DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEKEND SO MORE SUNSHINE IS PLANNED                
FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                  
HPC/MEX GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE DAYS 6-7.                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-               
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                   
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ057-062.                           
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-               
     039-043.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-            
     044-047-072.                                                               
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ048.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...PB                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
453 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
NOREASTER CONTINUES TO BLANKET UPSTATE NY AND NEPA WITH SNOW/HEAVY              
RAIN. 971MB SFC LOW IS SITTING NEAR THE NY BIGHT THIS MORNING AND               
FLINGING SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND BACK INTO THE FA. SNOWFALL                     
REPORTS ON AVG RUNNING ARND SIX INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO              
BTWN 2-3 IN THE VALLEYS. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE              
IMAGINATION BUT THINK LATEST FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE WITHIN                    
REACH. INTENSE BAND IS LOCATED ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR PRESENTLY                    
WITH 1/2-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IN THIS BAND. HAVE AVGD AN INCH PER                 
HOUR FOR THE PAST 6 HRS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO                   
CONTINUE UNTIL APPROX 12Z.                                                      
THE BIG MONKEY WRENCH IN THIS FCST IS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO                
NEPA. THIS IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST...A LITTLE FURTHER THAN               
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...NAM CONSISTENTLY SHOWED QPF SLACKING              
OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WAS SOME CONCERN                  
THIS WUD BRING PCPN TO AN END QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT EAST OF                
THE I-81 CORRIDOR...LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW PCPN CONTINUALLY                   
DEVELOPING. THUS...HAVE KEPT HEAVY SNOW IN FOR GOOD PART OF THE                 
DAY FOR ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOKS TO RANGE                  
ANYWHERE FROM 4-12 INCHES...LOWEST IN THE VALLEYS AND HIGHEST ON                
THE HILLTOPS.                                                                   
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS FLOODING IN THE WRN CATSKILLS TODAY.                     
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST 24                
HRS. CUD SEE ADDNL AMOUNTS OF NR AN INCH THROUGH NOON                           
TODAY...LEADING TO CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. ALREADY HAVE                  
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED IN DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN                       
COUNTIES. THUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT                       
TRENDS...HAVE DROPPED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN                  
WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST. DELAWARE               
WAS A TRICKIER CALL WITH RAIN IN THE EAST AND SNOW IN THE WEST.                 
OPTED TO LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING BUT PROBABLY ONLY                 
LOOKING AT 5-8 INCH (MINIMAL WARNING) AMOUNTS.                                  
HAVE ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS OVER EASTERN ONEIDA AS                    
NAM/RUC BRING 850/800MB TEMPS > 0C INTO THIS AREA THIS MORNING.                 
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR A TIME AND                   
REDUCE AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO A 4-8 INCH RANGE OVER THE FAR EAST.                 
ALL IN ALL...TAPERED DOWN AMOUNTS MOST AREAS FOR STORM TOTALS.                  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH THE                 
MOST INTENSE RATES THRU 12Z. ACCUM PAST THAT POINT MAY BE HARD TO               
COME BY UNLESS SNOW CAN FALL AT AN EXTREMELY INTENSE RATE.                      
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BE FALLING ON EXISTING SNOW COVER SO MAY BE                 
EASIER TO ACCUMULATE THAN IF IT WERE FALLING ON BARE GROUND.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS                   
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RETURNING               
US TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS                
ARE BREAKING THIS PATTERN DOWN A DAY OR SO TOO SOON...BUT AT THE                
MOMENT THIS IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS               
OR THE MREF ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED PATTERN                              
EVOLUTION...CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST                   
WEDS-THURS UNDER THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW. LATEST MEX                 
GUIDANCE LOOKS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE WITH THE ENSEMBLE 925 MB              
T PREDICTIONS...OR THE HPC FCSTS SO WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE MEX                  
WEDS-THURS. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP FRI...WITH SWLY FLOW                  
THEN DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEKEND SO MORE SUNSHINE IS PLANNED                
FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                  
HPC/MEX GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE DAYS 6-7.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY              
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL           
OBVIOUSLY BE QUITE LOW DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR AT              
BEST THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTN TODAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF               
TO SHSN ESP ACROSS AVP AND ELM BY LATE AFTN WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT               
TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY EVENING.                                 
ANOTHER BIG FACTOR WILL BE THE WINDS. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS                
OVERNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK. NWLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS                  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS OR HIGHER PSBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-               
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                   
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ057-062.                           
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-               
     039-043.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-            
     044-047-072.                                                               
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ048.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JML                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
225 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS                   
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RETURNING               
US TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS                
ARE BREAKING THIS PATTERN DOWN A DAY OR SO TOO SOON...BUT AT THE                
MOMENT THIS IS NOT READILY EVIDENT IN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS               
OR THE MREF ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED PATTERN                              
EVOLUTION...CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST                   
WEDS-THURS UNDER THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW. LATEST MEX                 
GUIDANCE LOOKS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE WITH THE ENSEMBLE 925 MB              
T PREDICTIONS...OR THE HPC FCSTS SO WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE MEX                  
WEDS-THURS. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP FRI...WITH SWLY FLOW                  
THEN DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEKEND SO MORE SUNSHINE IS PLANNED                
FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                  
HPC/MEX GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE DAYS 6-7.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING FROM TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS WILL               
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY...AND VIGOROUSLY INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY                   
MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST. NEW SFC LOW PRESSURE                     
FORMING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DELMARVA WILL BECOME PRIMARY.                       
THESE ARE ALL SIGNS THAT FORECAST IS NOW COMING TOGETHER FOR A                  
MAJOR NOREASTER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLYING              
CONDITIONS ACROSS CNY. RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z               
WITH FLUCTUATING MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...INTENSE UPWARD                     
MOTION DEVELOPS NORTH OF STORM SYSTEM CHANGING PRECIP TO HEAVY                  
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS FOR SYR-ITH-ELM-BGM-RME.                
BEST LOCATION FOR FLIGHT OPS IN MY REGION WILL BE AVP WHERE COLD                
AIR ARRIVES VERY LATE. EVEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT COULD KEEP                   
PRECIP LIGHTER AT AVP THROUGH 12Z...SO GENERALLY WENT MVFR HERE.                
WILL KEEP THE VERY POOR LIFR CATEGORY IN MDT SNOW GOING THROUGH                 
THE END OF FCST PERIOD...AS MDLS SHOW LITTLE SIGNS OF CHANGE IN                 
STORM INTENSITY THRU 18Z. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE CATEGORY BOUNCES AS            
USUAL...BUT OVERALL NEXT 24 HOURS OF FLIGHT OPS WILL BE VERY POOR.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1015 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SE ZONES FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50-0.75 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AS              
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. H8              
LLJ OF 40-50KTS ALREADY CRANKING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND THIS WILL              
INCREASE DRNG THE DAY OVER NEPA/SENY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE              
SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE MD THIS AFTERNOON.              
THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT.                      
RUC/GFS/NAM ALL BRING SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS UNTIL 21Z-              
00Z TODAY. COULD SEE TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES                  
WITH AN ISOLD 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN GREATER LIFT. THIS COULD BRING               
SOME RISES ON DELAWARE AND PA PORTION OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER                  
WITH THESE AMOUNTS. CURRENT RIVER PROJECTIONS ARE 1/2 TO 3/4                    
BANKFULL BUT EXTRA RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL                 
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE AREA AND RIVER RESPONSES.                 
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED. 993MB SFC            
LOW LOCATED NEAR HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WRN HALF OF THE                  
STATE. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA                    
PENINSULA...INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM                   
TODAY. RUC/NAM/GFS/NGM/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THIS INITIAL MOVEMENT.                
AFTER THIS POINT...GFS DEEPENS LOW MORE THAN NAM OFF THE EAST                   
COAST LATER TONIGHT. GFS DOWN TO 973MB AND MAN DEEPENS LOW TO                   
975MB BY 12Z MONDAY. BOTH ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSING               
OFF AND DEEPENING H5 LOW OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEEPER THAN NA, BUT IN              
RELATIVELY THE SAME POSITION. AS FOR H7 LOW...GFS IS OBVIOUSLY                  
DEEPER BUT BOTH TRACK IT ACROSS CENTRAL NJ OVERNIGHT JUST TO OUR                
SOUTH AND EAST.                                                                 
BASED ON FCST POSITION OF MASS FIELDS...CURRENT WARNING LOOKS                   
EXCELLENT. GFS SHOWING BANDING OVER I-81 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS DOES               
THE NAM. STILL THINK FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY ARE MOST                    
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT A WOBBLE TO THE EAST                  
DOES PUT I-81 CORRIDOR IN THE BEST BAND.                                        
STILL A QUESTION AS TO THERMAL PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM IS              
COLDER THAN 06Z GFS AS GFS KEEPS MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA               
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WILL TEND TO SIDE TOWARD NAM PROFILE AS KSYR HAS               
SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW. EXPECT THIS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BTWN                 
RA/SN UNTIL 18Z-21Z AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW...21Z-00Z                  
OVER SRN TIER. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM STILL SUGGESTING                
MESOSCALE BAND ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO                   
NEPA. WILL EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL AND WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE               
ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND OUR CURRENT HEADLINES. NOT MAKING CHGS AT                
THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 742 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN               
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA TODAY. AVP AND RME STARTING                 
OFF MVFR BUT SHOULD ALSO LOWER CIGS TO IFR CATEGORY BY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PIVOTS                
BACK TOWARD WESTERN NY...BUT DAYLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE              
RELATIVELY NIL. SNOW THEN BECOMES HEAVIER TONIGHT AS PRIMARY                    
COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.               
EXCEPTION BEING AVP WHERE RAIN LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANT TYPE                    
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL                  
HOURS TONIGHT...WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. HEAVY AND                  
WET ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ON RUNWAYS AND TARMACS ACROSS UPSTATE              
NY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS OVER NYS.                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST LATER                     
TONIGHT, TO NEAR LONG ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. A MIX OF RAIN AND               
SNOW WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE                     
BORDERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS                 
TEMPERATURES COOL.                                                              
HAVE PUT THE FINAL TOUCHES ON THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST WE                  
HAVE HAD IN A LONG TIME. THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA HAS BEEN FLAGGED               
FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY, AS HAS SULLIVAN NY. WE EXTENDED THE                   
WARNED AREA SOUTH THROUGH TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE COUNTIES OF NY.                 
WET SNOW IS MIXING WITH THE RAIN STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE                   
MOIST AIR PUSH. SOME OF THE SNOW IS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ON                   
GRASSY SURFACES, ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS. HOWEVER WARM                       
ADVECTION AND THE RISING OF THE SUN SHOULD SWITCH ALL THE                       
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY 8 AM. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH              
MIDDAY, AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NY. THIS              
WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TO START CHANGING OVER TO SNOW                   
MIDDAY, WITH THE URBAN VALLEYS LIKELY STAYING ALL RAIN UNTIL LATE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WHILE THE MODELS FORECASTS HAVE GONE THROUGH LARGE CHANGES LAST                 
48H AND HAVE NOT BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, ONE IMPORTANT POINT               
THEY ALL SEEM TO HAVE MADE IS THAT UPWARD MOTION WILL BECOME                    
RATHER INTENSE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE COOL/MOIST                
ATLANTIC AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE                          
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS                 
SHOWS UP WITH INTENSE OMEGA FIELDS. THE ONE NEGATIVE IN THE                     
EQUATION IS THE LIFT IS BELOW THE UNDERSTANDABLY ELEVATED SNOW                  
GROWTH REGION. STILL THE LIFT IS SO STRONG, I EXPECT RAPID COOLING              
TO TAKE PLACE, AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 1 INCH              
PER HOUR IN EMBEDDED SQUALLS.                                                   
THE BEST FORCING REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA              
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS                  
SHOULD LEAD TO 10-16 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH 6-10                     
INCHES ALONG THE NYS/PA BORDER. IT APPEARS THE WILKES BARRE -                   
SCRANTON AREA WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAVY SNOW. LOOK              
FOR THIS AREA TO TACK ON AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT.  DP/BGM                      
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
MAJOR CYCLONE OCCLUDES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES EARLY THIS                   
PERIOD...WHICH THEN LEADS TO A SPRING TIME OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING               
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK...WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LOOSENS                 
IT/S GRIP TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER                  
WILL LINGER IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY              
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL INCREASES OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY.              
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY                 
NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS                 
NIL AT THIS POINT. WENT WITH MOST OF HPC GUIDANCE EXCEPT HAD TO                 
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RESULTANT TEMPS                
PER LATEST 06Z AND 12Z GFS MEAN RH AND THERMAL PROG TRENDS.                     
DROPPED ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES OFF HPC/MEX GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY...AS MIXING UP TO 925 MB TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF                  
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE IN THE 40S-50S...ESPECIALLY OVER A SNOW PACK AND               
OVERCAST SKIES. ALSO CONTINUED WITH A COOLER TREND RIGHT THROUGH                
SATURDAY...PER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE AND ADIABATIC MIXING OF 2-4C               
AIR AT 925 MB.                                                                  
AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                           
MAJOR STORM HAS JUST BEGUN TO IMPACT THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
DO SO THRU THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE               
QUICKLY WITH THE START OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN                
AT MOST TAF SITES OR WILL IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIP                  
TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW AT BGM. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN INTO THIS              
MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTN, EXCEPT AT AVP             
WHERE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND                   
OCCASIONALLY VISBY WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE MORNING.                 
EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN               
10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS SWITCH TO NW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE               
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-             
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                           
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ062.                  
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048-072.            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1015 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SE ZONES FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50-0.75 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AS              
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. H8              
LLJ OF 40-50KTS ALREADY CRANKING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND THIS WILL              
INCREASE DRNG THE DAY OVER NEPA/SENY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE              
SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE MD THIS AFTERNOON.              
THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT.                      
RUC/GFS/NAM ALL BRING SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS UNTIL 21Z-              
00Z TODAY. COULD SEE TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES                  
WITH AN ISOLD 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN GREATER LIFT. THIS COULD BRING               
SOME RISES ON DELAWARE AND PA PORTION OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER                  
WITH THESE AMOUNTS. CURRENT RIVER PROJECTIONS ARE 1/2 TO 3/4                    
BANKFULL BUT EXTRA RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL                 
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE AREA AND RIVER RESPONSES.                 
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED. 993MB SFC            
LOW LOCATED NEAR HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WRN HALF OF THE                  
STATE. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA                    
PENINSULA...INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM                   
TODAY. RUC/NAM/GFS/NGM/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THIS INITIAL MOVEMENT.                
AFTER THIS POINT...GFS DEEPENS LOW MORE THAN NAM OFF THE EAST                   
COAST LATER TONIGHT. GFS DOWN TO 973MB AND MAN DEEPENS LOW TO                   
975MB BY 12Z MONDAY. BOTH ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSING               
OFF AND DEEPENING H5 LOW OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEEPER THAN NA, BUT IN              
RELATIVELY THE SAME POSITION. AS FOR H7 LOW...GFS IS OBVIOUSLY                  
DEEPER BUT BOTH TRACK IT ACROSS CENTRAL NJ OVERNIGHT JUST TO OUR                
SOUTH AND EAST.                                                                 
BASED ON FCST POSITION OF MASS FIELDS...CURRENT WARNING LOOKS                   
EXCELLENT. GFS SHOWING BANDING OVER I-81 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS DOES               
THE NAM. STILL THINK FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY ARE MOST                    
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT A WOBBLE TO THE EAST                  
DOES PUT I-81 CORRIDOR IN THE BEST BAND.                                        
STILL A QUESTION AS TO THERMAL PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM IS              
COLDER THAN 06Z GFS AS GFS KEEPS MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA               
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WILL TEND TO SIDE TOWARD NAM PROFILE AS KSYR HAS               
SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW. EXPECT THIS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BTWN                 
RA/SN UNTIL 18Z-21Z AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW...21Z-00Z                  
OVER SRN TIER. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM STILL SUGGESTING                
MESOSCALE BAND ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO                   
NEPA. WILL EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL AND WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE               
ON SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND OUR CURRENT HEADLINES. NOT MAKING CHGS AT                
THIS TIME UNTIL WE GET BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 742 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN               
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA TODAY. AVP AND RME STARTING                 
OFF MVFR BUT SHOULD ALSO LOWER CIGS TO IFR CATEGORY BY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PIVOTS                
BACK TOWARD WESTERN NY...BUT DAYLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE              
RELATIVELY NIL. SNOW THEN BECOMES HEAVIER TONIGHT AS PRIMARY                    
COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.               
EXCEPTION BEING AVP WHERE RAIN LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANT TYPE                    
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERAL                  
HOURS TONIGHT...WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. HEAVY AND                  
WET ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ON RUNWAYS AND TARMACS ACROSS UPSTATE              
NY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS OVER NYS.                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST LATER                     
TONIGHT, TO NEAR LONG ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. A MIX OF RAIN AND               
SNOW WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE                     
BORDERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS                 
TEMPERATURES COOL.                                                              
HAVE PUT THE FINAL TOUCHES ON THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST WE                  
HAVE HAD IN A LONG TIME. THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA HAS BEEN FLAGGED               
FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY, AS HAS SULLIVAN NY. WE EXTENDED THE                   
WARNED AREA SOUTH THROUGH TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE COUNTIES OF NY.                 
WET SNOW IS MIXING WITH THE RAIN STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE                   
MOIST AIR PUSH. SOME OF THE SNOW IS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ON                   
GRASSY SURFACES, ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS. HOWEVER WARM                       
ADVECTION AND THE RISING OF THE SUN SHOULD SWITCH ALL THE                       
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY 8 AM. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH              
MIDDAY, AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NY. THIS              
WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TO START CHANGING OVER TO SNOW                   
MIDDAY, WITH THE URBAN VALLEYS LIKELY STAYING ALL RAIN UNTIL LATE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WHILE THE MODELS FORECASTS HAVE GONE THROUGH LARGE CHANGES LAST                 
48H AND HAVE NOT BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, ONE IMPORTANT POINT               
THEY ALL SEEM TO HAVE MADE IS THAT UPWARD MOTION WILL BECOME                    
RATHER INTENSE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE COOL/MOIST                
ATLANTIC AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE                          
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS                 
SHOWS UP WITH INTENSE OMEGA FIELDS. THE ONE NEGATIVE IN THE                     
EQUATION IS THE LIFT IS BELOW THE UNDERSTANDABLY ELEVATED SNOW                  
GROWTH REGION. STILL THE LIFT IS SO STRONG, I EXPECT RAPID COOLING              
TO TAKE PLACE, AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 1 INCH              
PER HOUR IN EMBEDDED SQUALLS.                                                   
THE BEST FORCING REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA              
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS                  
SHOULD LEAD TO 10-16 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH 6-10                     
INCHES ALONG THE NYS/PA BORDER. IT APPEARS THE WILKES BARRE -                   
SCRANTON AREA WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAVY SNOW. LOOK              
FOR THIS AREA TO TACK ON AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT.  DP/BGM                      
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
MAJOR CYCLONE OCCLUDES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES EARLY THIS                   
PERIOD...WHICH THEN LEADS TO A SPRING TIME OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING               
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK...WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LOOSENS                 
IT/S GRIP TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE BELOW NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER                  
WILL LINGER IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY              
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL INCREASES OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY.              
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY                 
NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS                 
NIL AT THIS POINT. WENT WITH MOST OF HPC GUIDANCE EXCEPT HAD TO                 
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RESULTANT TEMPS                
PER LATEST 06Z AND 12Z GFS MEAN RH AND THERMAL PROG TRENDS.                     
DROPPED ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES OFF HPC/MEX GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY...AS MIXING UP TO 925 MB TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF                  
MOS/HPC GUIDANCE IN THE 40S-50S...ESPECIALLY OVER A SNOW PACK AND               
OVERCAST SKIES. ALSO CONTINUED WITH A COOLER TREND RIGHT THROUGH                
SATURDAY...PER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE AND ADIABATIC MIXING OF 2-4C               
AIR AT 925 MB.                                                                  
AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                           
MAJOR STORM HAS JUST BEGUN TO IMPACT THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
DO SO THRU THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE               
QUICKLY WITH THE START OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN                
AT MOST TAF SITES OR WILL IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIP                  
TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW AT BGM. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN INTO THIS              
MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTN, EXCEPT AT AVP             
WHERE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND                   
OCCASIONALLY VISBY WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE MORNING.                 
EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN               
10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS SWITCH TO NW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE               
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-             
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.                                           
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ062.                  
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ044-047-048-072.            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL.                     
SKIES HAVE ABOUT CLEARED OFF ACROSS FAR SE FA IN WAKE OF FRONTAL                
PASSAGE. REMAINDER OF NIGHT SHOULD SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS                
ALSO DIMINISHING AND COMBINATION OF SKC AND WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW              
SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. COOLEST MINIMUM                      
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WEST IN DRIER AIR. RUC SLOW TO BRING IN            
REAL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST IN MID 30S            
TO AROUND 40 WILL CONTINUE THOUGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL ALONG WITH                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE SO            
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
723 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN INTENSE COASTAL STORM...APPROACHING WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS                 
EVENING...WILL SLOW DOWN AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID                   
WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY                
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
QUITE A NIGHT SO FAR AS THE FEARED DEFORMATION ZONE MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT AT THIS TIME MANAGED TO MATERIALIZE AND IS AFFECTING MY FAR               
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. MUCH OF THE SNOW IS ELEVATION                   
DEPENDENT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE WILLIAMSPORT HANGING ON TO                 
RAIN WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 35-40F.                                                 
IT ALL IS COURTESY OF A COASTAL STORM THAT IS FINALLY UNDERGOING                
BOMBOGENESIS...DOWN TO 972MB AT 06Z...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BUILD               
UP BY ANY OF A VARIETY OF FORECAST MODELS. IT UNFORTUNATELY                     
(FORTUNATELY?) MANAGED TO HOLD OFF WITH THE BOTTOM FALLING OUT OF               
THE PRESSURE JUST LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WETTEST AND COLDEST                   
PARTS OF THE STORM FROM MANAGING TO COME INTO PHASE OVER THE LOCAL              
AREA. AS A RESULT WE SAW THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWS MORPH INTO A                 
CHILLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. NOW ON THE BACK SIDE AS               
THE BOMB APPROACHES LOWER MANHATTAN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE                      
CONTINUES TO DUMP ON MY FAR EASTERN ZONES.                                      
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENTIC FORCING                    
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WANE AROUND                  
AND SHORTLY AFTER MID DAY. PERPLEXINGLY...THE HIGH RES RUC AND                  
NAM12 SHOW THE BEST FGEN FORCING BEING CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF                
MY FORECAST ZONES. THE RUC AT LEAST GENERATES IMPRESSIVE ASCENT                 
AND CRANKS OUT ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON THE ORDER OF .20-.30 INCHES                 
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER MY NERN ZONES. NAM12 KEEPS THE UPWARD                  
VERT MOTION MORE CLOSELY TIED TO ITS LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                
REGION...AND ALSO KEEPS BEST QPF EAST OF MY FCST AREA. SO THE                   
LOWER RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AS THE EVENT                      
CONTINUES.                                                                      
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE                  
DAY...BUT IT WILL BE A WILD WINDY ONE AS STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT              
CONTINUES AROUND THE STORM THAT IS FCST TO HEAD UP INTO SWRN                    
CONNECTICUT BEFORE WOBBLING BACK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALL AS                  
THE TRIPLE POINT OFFSHORE UNDERGOES DEVELOPMENT AND THE ENTIRE                  
SYSTEM ROTATES AROUND JUT OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDER                 
SUCH A REGIME WE WILL STAY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY OVER               
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                         
STRONG WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE OFFSHORE STORM STARTS                
TO FILL AND MOVE EAST. BUT IT WILL BE A MONSTER AND MAINTAIN ITS                
HOLD WITH COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP.                 
TUESDAY`S PRECIP PATTERN SHOULD BECOME ONE MORE RECOGNIZABLE OF A               
COLD SEASON POST CYCLONE/FRONTAL SYSTEM ONE...WHERE THE BEST                    
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN                 
WITH DWINDLING CHANCES DOWNSTREAM AND DOWNSLOPE. MAINTAINED                     
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER MY NERN ZONES...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE                
RESIDUAL MOISTURE THE PROGS HOLD ONTO ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN               
PERIPHERY OF THE BIG STORM. THE BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL NOT GO                   
ANYWHERE SOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS PERSISTENT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW               
CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE                  
FLOW KEEPING MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AND A DECENT                   
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND.                                                        
MODELS AGREE IN A CHUNK OF THE UPPER AIR ENERGY CLOSING OFF INTO                
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GR LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AROUND               
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL ONLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE                  
FORECAST...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT DOES LOOK                 
LIKE SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS UPPER              
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE...BUT THE PATTERN IS PRETTY BLOCKY AND                      
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE GET ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THE BLOCKING                  
HIGH IN CANADA VS THE BAD SIDE OF THE LOW EAST OF HERE OR THE                   
OTHER PROGGED OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE MREF AND CAN ENS BOTH                   
ARGUE FOR THE GOOD SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO I WILL BE AN OPTIMIST AND               
LOOK FORWARD TO THIS EXECRABLE "SPRING" WEATHER GOING AWAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS RAIN AND SNOW                  
BACK IN FROM THE EAST...AS AN INTENSE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.          
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS INTO THIS AFT.                           
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AND COOL INTO LATE WEEK...AS WE REMAIN                  
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM WED                  
INTO FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ037-                    
041-042.                                                                        
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-                     
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-                        
056>059-063>066.                                                                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
PAZ046-051>053-058.                                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-                    
010-011.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...LACORTE                                                             
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...LACORTE                                                             
AVIATION...MARTIN                                                               
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1011 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO UPDATES TO GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE DOING WELL. SKIES                
ARE CLEAR AND WIND IS DIMINISHING.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.                                     
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS                 
EVENING...AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                         
COLD FRONT HAS NOW EXITED ALL CWA...WITH REPORTING STATIONS                     
SHOWING NW WINDS. BAND OF PCPN CONTS TO NARROW WITH TIME...WITH                 
BEST REFLECTIVITIES NOW SHOWING UP IN ND. SAT PIX ALSO SHOW CLOUD               
SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO THIN SOMEWHAT. LATEST ITERATION OF THE RUC               
SHOWS CWA REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE              
HI-RES NAM. HAVE OPTED TO PULL ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF FORECAST              
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH              
LIGHT WINDS AND MO CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER CWA                     
KEEPING WEAK WAVES AT BAY...HELPING TO BOLSTER MOCLEAR SKIES                    
FORECAST. 85H TEMPS REMAIN THE SAME AS TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED                  
TODAY...TO HIGHS TUESDAY HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP A BIT...SIMILAR TO                 
TODAYS.                                                                         
FOR WEDNESDAY...A RETURN TO A WAA PATTERN AS HIGH SLIDES EAST                   
UPPER TROF DIGS TO THE WEST. WITH GULF WIDE OPEN...DID UP DWPTS                 
CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS                             
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB              
A FEW MORE DEGREES. BY 00Z THURSDAY THERE IS AN INCREASE IN CAPE                
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN 850MB JET 35+                       
KTS...SAW NO REASON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE                 
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL                    
SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND EXIT               
EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED THE                   
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE               
RATES RANGE IN THE SIX TO SEVEN DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME                
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAINLY IN THE WEST. GOOD HELICITY VALUES...STRONG               
LLJ OF AT LEAST 30KTS WITH WAA COULD MAKE FOR INTERESTING WEATHER               
DAY.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY                          
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS               
ON SATURDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF SEVEN TO                 
EIGHT DEGREES...0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300J IN NORTHERN                   
SD...TO OVER 1000J IN SOUTHERN SD. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER A                    
THERMAL RIDGED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR                     
TEMPERATURE TO REACH 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 50 IN SOUTHERN SD.                          
AGAIN...ALL THIS COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY. THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...SO KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN              
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. CCA WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW               
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATES AROUND TWO TO                  
THREE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAYS HIGHS ARE THREE TO SIX DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND CONDITIONS               
ARE VFR. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KEEFE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DOERING                                                             
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
321 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.                                     
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES THIS                 
EVENING...AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                         
COLD FRONT HAS NOW EXITED ALL CWA...WITH REPORTING STATIONS                     
SHOWING NW WINDS. BAND OF PCPN CONTS TO NARROW WITH TIME...WITH                 
BEST REFLECTIVITIES NOW SHOWING UP IN ND. SAT PIX ALSO SHOW CLOUD               
SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO THIN SOMEWHAT. LATEST ITERATION OF THE RUC               
SHOWS CWA REMAINING DRY THROUGH 06Z WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE              
HI-RES NAM. HAVE OPTED TO PULL ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF FORECAST              
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH              
LIGHT WINDS AND MO CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER CWA                     
KEEPING WEAK WAVES AT BAY...HELPING TO BOLSTER MOCLEAR SKIES                    
FORECAST. 85H TEMPS REMAIN THE SAME AS TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED                  
TODAY...TO HIGHS TUESDAY HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP A BIT...SIMILAR TO                 
TODAYS.                                                                         
FOR WEDNESDAY...A RETURN TO A WAA PATTERN AS HIGH SLIDES EAST                   
UPPER TROF DIGS TO THE WEST. WITH GULF WIDE OPEN...DID UP DWPTS                 
CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS                             
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB              
A FEW MORE DEGREES. BY 00Z THURSDAY THERE IS AN INCREASE IN CAPE                
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN 850MB JET 35+                       
KTS...SAW NO REASON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE                 
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL                    
SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND EXIT               
EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED THE                   
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE               
RATES RANGE IN THE SIX TO SEVEN DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME                
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAINLY IN THE WEST. GOOD HELICITY VALUES...STRONG               
LLJ OF AT LEAST 30KTS WITH WAA COULD MAKE FOR INTERESTING WEATHER               
DAY.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY                          
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS               
ON SATURDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF SEVEN TO                 
EIGHT DEGREES...0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300J IN NORTHERN                   
SD...TO OVER 1000J IN SOUTHERN SD. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER A                    
THERMAL RIDGED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR                     
TEMPERATURE TO REACH 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 50 IN SOUTHERN SD.                          
AGAIN...ALL THIS COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY. THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...SO KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN              
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. CCA WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW               
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATES AROUND TWO TO                  
THREE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAYS HIGHS ARE THREE TO SIX DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED ENTIRE CWA...WITH NW WINDS TO 30 KTS                  
ACROSS ALL THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 00Z TO 10 TO 15                  
KNOTS. SOME SCT-BKN040-050 CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KABR AND KATY               
SITES THROUGH 01Z...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER. VFR VSBYS                
EXPECTED ALL NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DOERING                                                             
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
905 PM MDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED INITIAL SURFACE                       
TROUGH/COOL FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.                  
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVING                
ACROSS MT MOVES INTO ND TOWARD MORNING. 00Z KUNR/KRIW SOUNDINGS TELL            
DRY STORY. ALTHOUGH...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA T/TD                    
PROFILES WILL CONVERGE. GIVEN SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED            
TO DROP POPS THIS EVENING AND SHAVE POPS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN LINE                
WITH 00Z RUC/NAM GUIDANCE. UPDATE SOON.                                         
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
921 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...00Z CRP/BRO/DRT SOUNDINGS SHOWS VERY STRONG CAPPING                   
INVERSIONS IN PLACE. CHANCE FOR ANYTHING ELEVATED TONIGHT QUICKLY               
DIMINISHING...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH                  
MODEL PROGS SHOW LEAD UPR LVL SHORTWAVE ALREADY EAST OF THE RIO                 
GRANDE. THEREFORE...EXPECT WEAK NVA TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                    
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AFTER MIDNIGHT. WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME                   
ISOLATED WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS...BENEATH THE CAP...OVER THE GULF                
AND NE CWA OVERNIGHT. WON`T MESS TOO MUCH WITH POPS DURING THE                  
DAY ON TUESDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.                                        
DID LOWER TONIGHT`S LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE                
AREA...BASED UPON CURRENT READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING FORECASTED               
LOWS. WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE DROPPED                    
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND NRN BAYS. DO EXPECT THEM               
TO INCREASE BACK INTO SCEC RANGE OVER THE BAYS AND POSSIBLE SCA                 
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AS LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO                
MVFR BETWEEN 06-09Z AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW U.S. TONIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS            
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE            
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN               
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOME AFTERNOON                      
HEATING...EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS...             
MAINLY OVER THE NE REGION (INCLUDING VCT). A DRY-LINE FEATURE IS                
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER               
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL IMPROVE CIGS OVER               
THE WEST (INCLUDING LRD)BEFORE NOON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY TO                   
ALI/CRP BY LATE AFTERNOON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007/                         
SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...700HPA SHORTWAVE                   
ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CAPPING                   
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG BUT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEPER              
LAPSE RATES AND NEARNESS OF 500/250HPA JET STREAKS TENUOUSLY                    
SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION              
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF             
THIS AREA AND AS FAR WEST AS THE COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL            
MOISTURE/FORCING PRECEDING THE DRYLINE APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS BENEATH A RISING CAPPING INVERSION. THE DRYLINE IS             
EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.            
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ADEQUATELY HIGH AS DRIER AIR                
ALOFT ADVECTS IN AND SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION OCCURS.                
HAVE THEREFORE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE                  
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS                 
EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                   
AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS WILL END BY                 
02Z. AT THAT TIME...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THEN LOWER TO HIGH-END                
MVFR CIGS BY 06Z AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z. AFTER 16Z VFR CIGS WILL                 
PREVAIL WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOSTLY              
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY               
WITH MARGINAL SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH OF A HOLIDAY BEACH TO                  
CHARCO LINE.                                                                    
MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN                 
BAYS UNTIL 01Z IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND TIGHT PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 03Z ACROSS THE                         
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE               
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.                                                        
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE EDGES INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS               
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYERED MIXING WITH WIND            
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE CONFINED TO POINTS WEST OF A ENCINAL TO               
LAREDO TO RIO BRAVO LINE. SINCE THIS BARELY AFFECTS WEBB COUNTY AND             
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...WILL FOREGO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG            
WARNING.                                                                        
LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS                    
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF                   
EPISODE OF MOD/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. WINDS                
WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID WED AFTN.              
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE SE U.S AS             
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO AND THEN INTO THE LONE STAR                 
STATE. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF CAA ASSOCIATED WITH                   
PACIFIC FRONT THAN GFS. WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE WARMER               
GFS WITH H8 TEMPS NOT CHANGING VERY MUCH ON EITHER MODEL. SURFACE               
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH                       
DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS. WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER OR TO THE EAST             
OF SOUTH TX THU/FRI WITH DRY WEATHER/SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED. A               
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW               
RETURNS WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER BUT STRONGER LONG WAVE TROF MOVING             
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES               
EAST AND ALLOWING A W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES             
TO PREVAIL AT WEEK`S END THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                    
BREEZY/WINDY INLAND AND SCEC/LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOME               
ESTABLISHED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASE. BOUTS              
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH                     
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AT THE BEGINNING              
OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A STRONGER VORT LOBE THAT IS PROGGED TO TREK            
ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO OUR REGION. WILL KEEP IN MINIMAL LOW END POPS            
GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE             
BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEFINED FORCING IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG CAP               
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  80  56  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
VICTORIA          60  78  55  80  55  /  10  40  10   0   0                     
LAREDO            67  90  61  90  64  /  10  10   0   0   0                     
ALICE             63  84  55  84  58  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
ROCKPORT          64  77  58  80  62  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
COTULLA           60  86  51  87  57  /  10  10   0   0   0                     
KINGSVILLE        64  83  55  84  59  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
NAVY CORPUS       66  77  61  81  63  /  10  10  10   0   0                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM.                                                                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...                    
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JR/76...SHORT TERM                                                              
RM/33...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1158 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...VFR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND             
SUNRISE BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO               
INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CIRRUS              
SHIELD ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z. 43                                 
.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE                     
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. RUC80 500MB                
HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED              
STATES AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. IN                   
ADDITION...ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN               
CALIFORNIA. RUC80 1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN                      
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND                 
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE               
CURRENT FORECAST. A REALLY NICE DAY TODAY...ENJOY! 32                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007/                         
COOL/DRY AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING AS SFC                  
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE CWA AND              
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TODAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL                
REMAIN COOL TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN.                 
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SE TX BY EARLY MONDAY.              
SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY              
LATE MONDAY.                                                                    
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
CROSSING THE STATE ON TUESDAY. PREFER SLOWER SOLUTION SHOWN BY                  
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WHICH ARE ABOUT 6-9 HOURS SLOWER THAN                
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                     
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. JET DYNAMICS LOOK              
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MODELS SHOWING 120 KT JET MAX AT               
300 MB REACHING SE TX TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...DRYLINE/FRONT WILL                
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTN/EVENING AS IT                
PUSHES INTO SE TX. WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SET UP OVER SE TX FOR                 
THIS EVENT WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE                    
WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING               
TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE           
RETURN FROM THE GULF LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT CURRENT COLD SURGE.                    
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LIS                 
AROUND 0 FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT ONLY              
A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST.                  
UPPER LOW LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH SFC FRONT/DRYLINE               
PUSHING OFF THE COAST. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SEE LOTS OF                      
SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITIES AS WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE                 
AREA. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY BUT ONLY A SLOW                       
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK                   
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT FORECAST PRECIP FREE GOING INTO               
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS HAS MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE            
WINDS ACROSS INLAND SITES HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE LAST FEW              
HOURS. GLS SHOULD SEE DECREASING NORTH WINDS MID TO LATE MORNING.               
OTHERWISE VFR ALL SITES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY RELAXING THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
SETTLING OVER THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS 20-60 NM REGION REMAINING ON             
THE HIGH SIDE DURING MORNING HOURS. BAYS ALREADY SEEING WINDS DECREASING        
SIGNIFICANTLY. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR 0-20 NM REGION THROUGH            
MID MORNING AND THROUGH MID DAY FOR 20-60 NM REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE              
FLOW SHOULD BE EVIDENT BY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING              
TO THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING TOMORROW WITH COASTAL           
WATERS WINDS REACHING SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT 20-60 NM REGION. NEXT           
FRONT SHOULD CROSS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING A BRIEF STRONG         
OFFSHORE FLOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  45  75  55  75 /   0   0   0  20  50             
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  46  75  55  75 /   0   0   0  20  40             
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  55  71  63  74 /   0   0   0  20  40             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                        
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1014 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE             
OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF              
OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING.            
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WITH EAST            
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST            
VALUES ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOWERED THE              
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY GENERALLY 2 DEGREES MOST AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 18Z AS SEAS           
CONTINUE AROUND 7 FEET AT BUOY 19. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO              
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007/                         
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER IS              
ON TAP FOR TODAY AS S/WV RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION AND                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. FOLLOWED THE WARMEST            
FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN UNINHIBITED INSOLATION. IN                   
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME                 
ONSHORE LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK WITH              
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO TH MID/UPR LOW DIGGING INTO THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALSO THINK THE NAM IS TOO SLOW WITH MOISTURE                  
RETURN. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS            
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE MID/UPR LOW                
PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER SOUTH               
TEXAS. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF             
SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.                      
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND               
SHOULD OFFSET THE INCREASING WAA. AS A RESULT...THINK TEMPS MONDAY              
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S READINGS.                                            
MARINE...SCA WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS                   
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. EXTENDED THE SCA               
UNTIL 18Z (1 PM CDT) FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE                
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS DUE TO SEAS RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET.              
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL SOUTH TEXAS                     
TERMINAL AERODROME SITES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                  
LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THINGS REMAIN PRETTY                
MUCH STATUS-QUO W.R.T. TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEMS...AS GFS IS FASTER               
AND NAM IS SLOWER WITH TROUGH ACROSS TX ON TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO                
KIND OF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP (IF ANY)                  
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW             
GENERALLY A STABLE AIRMASS FOR SURFACE FORCING...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH            
LARGE SCALE LIFT VIA CVA OR JET DYNAMICS FOR ELEVATED STORMS...THUS             
MAINTAINED THUNDER IN FORECAST WITH VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO                   
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. NO RAIN AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER               
RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS THURSDAY...THEN              
WSW FLOW AFTER THAT WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WEST                    
TEXAS...BRINGING WINDS...MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES UP. OVERALL...               
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED JUST LITTLE AS OVERALL FORECAST                  
TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  54  77  67  86  /   0   0  10  10  20                     
VICTORIA          73  50  76  63  80  /   0   0  10  20  40                     
LAREDO            79  58  81  69  95  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ALICE             76  51  78  66  90  /   0   0  10  10  20                     
ROCKPORT          72  57  75  67  81  /   0   0  10  10  30                     
COTULLA           76  52  77  62  90  /   0   0  10  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        76  53  78  66  89  /   0   0  10  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       71  59  74  69  82  /   0   0  10  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60                
     NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60                
     NM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT TERM                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
959 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE                     
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. RUC80 500MB                
HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED              
STATES AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. IN                   
ADDITION...ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN               
CALIFORNIA. RUC80 1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN                      
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND                 
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE               
CURRENT FORECAST. A REALLY NICE DAY TODAY...ENJOY! 32                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007/                         
COOL/DRY AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING AS SFC                  
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE CWA AND              
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TODAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL                
REMAIN COOL TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN.                 
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SE TX BY EARLY MONDAY.              
SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY              
LATE MONDAY.                                                                    
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
CROSSING THE STATE ON TUESDAY. PREFER SLOWER SOLUTION SHOWN BY                  
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WHICH ARE ABOUT 6-9 HOURS SLOWER THAN                
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA                     
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. JET DYNAMICS LOOK              
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MODELS SHOWING 120 KT JET MAX AT               
300 MB REACHING SE TX TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...DRYLINE/FRONT WILL                
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTN/EVENING AS IT                
PUSHES INTO SE TX. WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SET UP OVER SE TX FOR                 
THIS EVENT WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE                    
WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING               
TUESDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE           
RETURN FROM THE GULF LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT CURRENT COLD SURGE.                    
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LIS                 
AROUND 0 FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT ONLY              
A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST.                  
UPPER LOW LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH SFC FRONT/DRYLINE               
PUSHING OFF THE COAST. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SEE LOTS OF                      
SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITIES AS WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE                 
AREA. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY BUT ONLY A SLOW                       
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK                   
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT FORECAST PRECIP FREE GOING INTO               
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS HAS MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE            
WINDS ACROSS INLAND SITES HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE LAST FEW              
HOURS. GLS SHOULD SEE DECREASING NORTH WINDS MID TO LATE MORNING.               
OTHERWISE VFR ALL SITES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY RELAXING THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
SETTLING OVER THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS 20-60 NM REGION REMAINING ON             
THE HIGH SIDE DURING MORNING HOURS. BAYS ALREADY SEEING WINDS DECREASING        
SIGNIFICANTLY. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR 0-20 NM REGION THROUGH            
MID MORNING AND THROUGH MID DAY FOR 20-60 NM REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE              
FLOW SHOULD BE EVIDENT BY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING              
TO THE WESTERN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING TOMORROW WITH COASTAL           
WATERS WINDS REACHING SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT 20-60 NM REGION. NEXT           
FRONT SHOULD CROSS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING A BRIEF STRONG         
OFFSHORE FLOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  45  75  55  75 /   0   0   0  20  50             
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  46  75  55  75 /   0   0   0  20  40             
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  55  71  63  74 /   0   0   0  20  40             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                        
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
405 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY...CHANCE OF               
PRECIP ON TUESDAY...THEN COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS WEDNESDAY.               
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST            
COASTS...WITH MEAN RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 00Z                 
RAOBS UPSTREAM SHOWING NICE POCKET OF WARM AIR OVER THE                         
PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AOA 10C FROM KS TO ND.  AT THE SFC...08Z              
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER WI...WITH IR                 
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF WI.                  
TODAY...GFS/NAM/RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT CO-LOCATING SFC/UPPER RIDGING             
OVER WI THIS AFTERNOON. COLUMN DRY AND SUBSIDENT...RESULTING IN                 
SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED                   
REASONABLE...WITH ONLY CAVEAT THE USUAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE                
LAKE BREEZE...ALTHOUGH 4KM/20KM WRF_ARW MODELS SHOWING IT GENERALLY             
HOLDING TIGHT ALONG LAKESHORE TIL 20-21Z. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A                 
FINE DAY FOR MID APRIL.                                                         
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM               
NORTHWEST WITH NAM STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN GFS. WITH OVERALL            
BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN...CONTINUE TO PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER               
GFS SOLUTION...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND ONLY             
SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS.                                                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO               
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. AS SUCH...BEST UPPER LEVEL            
FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN                   
WISCONSIN. GFS INDICATING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL FORCING/ISENTROPIC              
LIFT MOVING ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 15Z-00Z...HOWEVER SATURATION IS                  
GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 600MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB AND                
ALSO NEAR THE SFC. WITH GULF OF MEXICO ESSENTIALLY CLOSED                       
DOWN...MOISTURE ADVECTION MARGINAL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS              
TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SREF GUIDANCE.             
ANY QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. SFC COLD FRONT              
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS              
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE OHIO                 
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A DEEP NELY FLOW ALOFT OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO                   
REINFORCE A COLD AND MOIST NELY SFC FLOW OVER SRN WI. EXPECTING                 
WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO SPILL INTO ERN WI AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING              
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION DUE TO PERSISTENT CAA. COULD ALSO SEE            
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ROTATES IN FROM THE                      
EAST...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY             
COOLER...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 40S EAST                         
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL                
OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE US. SEVERAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL                   
ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PLENTY OF              
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NARROW                
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVR WI DURG THE FCST PERIOD. TOWARD             
END OF PD...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NOW OVR THE               
NRN PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO WRN WI. THIS LOW PRES AND CDFNT WILL            
DRIFT ACROSS SRN WI BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TUE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOWLE/DAVIS                                                                     
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A 531 DAM             
LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS INTENSE              
NOR`EASTER. TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER             
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS             
RIDGE (SEE 00Z GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS) IS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR            
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME            
LIGHT RAIN IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AND NW WISCONSIN PER LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS.              
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DPVA FROM A                 
SHRTWV TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NW ONTARIO INTO EASTERN MN. IT               
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE BAND OF CLOUDS AN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO                 
SHRINK...DUE TO STRONG DRYING COMING IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV (SEE                  
EXTREMELY DRY 00Z BIS SOUNDING) AND THE DRY AIR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.            
THE STRONG DRYING AREA IS LOCATED UNDER ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE...WHICH             
EXTENDS FROM WYOMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TO THE                
WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO THE WEST            
COAST...WITH A 110 KT JET PUNCHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE             
SURFACE...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1015MB COVERS EASTERN              
UPPER MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JAMES BAY INTO WESTERN               
UPPER MICHIGAN AND A 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS BUILDING ALONG THE            
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY BEHIND              
THE FRONT...WITH 2C READINGS AT INL AND CWPL AND -1C AT CYQD FROM               
00Z SOUNDINGS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LOW CLOUDS AND PCPN POTENTIAL TONIGHT                
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TODAY...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING             
EAST THIS MORNING...BUT THEN STALL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF UPPER            
MICHIGAN AS RIDGING BUILDS UP INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTS THE                
TROUGH INTO TWO. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO DRIER AIR AND PLENTY OF            
DRY AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BAND OF               
CLOUDS TO SQUEEZE SMALLER. IN FACT...AT LEAST THE WESTERN U.P.                  
SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z             
BISMARCK SOUNDING MOVES IN. REGARDING THE SHOWERS...THESE SHOULD                
ALSO DIMINISH AS THEY RUN INTO THE DRIER AIR...PERHAPS BARELY EVEN              
GETTING INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY. PLAN ON HAVING A DRY AFTERNOON                   
FORECAST SINCE IT APPEARS THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE FALLEN APART BY THEN.            
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR            
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WIND. THIS INCREASE IN WIND IS A               
RESULT OF BOTH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE             
IN MANITOBA STRENGTHENING TO 1027MB AS IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO. THE SOUTHERN U.P. SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO COMBINE               
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C TO REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 50S. WILL             
NOT GO AS HIGH AS MET GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY FOR IMT...SINCE IT                
SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY.             
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHRTWV LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ENTERING            
THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z. WARM            
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHRTWV TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD               
THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF IT MORE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...FORCING THE             
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN               
SOUTHWARD. BY 12Z...THIS SHRTWV SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH BEND INDIANA             
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR CLEARING SKIES...                  
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUING TO            
STRENGTHEN AND LIFTING INTO HUDSON BAY...THE NE WINDS DEVELOP ON THE            
SE SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC WESTWARD. IT APPEARS              
THAT BY 12Z THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUD LINE SHOULD BE THE              
LUCE COUNTY LINE...THOUGH MID AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT TO                  
ESCANABA. IN ANY EVENT...A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOCATION             
OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE               
SHRTWV TROUGH HEADING SOUTH AND A LITTLE WIND SHOULD KEEP                       
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING. PREVIOUS LOW                  
FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                      
WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO IS                
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO TROUGHING STUCK OVER THE EASTERN              
U.S. (COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OFF NEW JERSEY AND THE             
SHRTWV OVER SOUTH BEND MOVING SOUTH) AND THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER                 
NEVADA MOVING INTO UTAH. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...              
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH EITHER.                   
THUS...THE ENE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500MB SHOULD ADVECT             
THE LOW...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA... PERHAPS                
REACHING IWD BY 00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GENERATE SOME QPF TOO WITH            
THE LOW CLOUDS...SINCE THE WINDS ARE ACTUALLY ADVECTING IN WARM AIR             
IN ALOFT FROM THE ATLANTIC (850MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND -3C AT ERY             
AT 12Z TO 0C AT 00Z). THIS IS ALREADY REPRESENTED WELL IN THE                   
FORECAST...INCLUDING THE LOCATION. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE SOME                  
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN MARQUETTE COUNTY ALSO IN THE MORNING SINCE NE                
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UPSLOPE. PCPN TYPE MAY ACTUALLY START OFF AS               
SNOW IN THE MORNING GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS MOSTLY BELOW ZERO...BUT AS            
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS GRADUALLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE               
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.                 
COOLED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...                   
ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER. MET GUIDANCE IS 34F FOR SAWYER.                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE EASTERN TROUGH                   
FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD SOME...AND WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER                  
NEVADA LIFTING UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z FRI...THE UPPER RIDGE                
THAT WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD TOWARDS THE CWA. IN            
FACT...BY 00Z FRI...THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER UPPER                
MICHIGAN. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING IN...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP                     
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS...AND PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN              
THE EASTERLY WINDS SLACKEN AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPS OUT. IN                    
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH EAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING...IT APPEARS THAT                 
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THURSDAY TOO FROM THE             
THE EAST...WHICH WILL HELP CLEARING SKIES OUT. THERE COULD BE SOME              
LINGERING PCPN IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS A                
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT SINCE THE WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS...            
WILL NOT BOTHER MENTIONING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL               
HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN THE               
LOW 30S SEEM REASONABLE. FOR THURSDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE              
AFTERNOON AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER DAY               
THAN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL COOL BY THE LAKE SHORES WITH ONSHORE              
WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE INLAND.                        
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN TO            
DIG DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 00Z SAT. WITH RIDGING STUCK                
OVER THE CWA...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL HAVE TO LIFT             
NORTH...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA FRI AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF THIS               
SHRTWV TROUGH MAY TRY TO CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT              
THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA IS SHOWN TO BE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN             
(DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 20C FROM THE SURFACE TO              
400MB). THUS THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS REASONABLE.              
FEWER CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR (PRECIPITABLE                
WATER NEAR 0.25 INCH) AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO              
DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S IN THE INTERIOR. MEX COOP GUIDANCE               
FOR CHAMPION IS 21. FOR FRIDAY...MORE SUNSHINE THAN ON THURSDAY                 
ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 0-2C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE AT LEAST                
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SIMILAR TO TODAY. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE                     
LOCATIONS COOLER...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING AROUND NOON.                            
THIS WEEKEND...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET              
KICKED OUT INTO THE PLAINS DUE TO ANOTHER EAST PACIFIC SHRTWV TROUGH            
MOVING IN. WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH MAY TRY TO            
BRING SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY                     
NIGHT...ASSUMING THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT. THE UKMET AND THE GFS                
WOULD SUGGEST DRY INSTEAD. IN ANY EVENT...ALL OPERATIONAL LONG RANGE            
MODELS DEPICT A DRY SATURDAY EXCEPT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...               
THUS REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE KICKED OUT               
SHRTWV TROUGH WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO                     
MONDAY...BUT THERE ARE MAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE                     
ECMWF...GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET. THUS POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TOO DURING THIS PERIOD...                
ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 12C. IF A LOT              
OF SUN CAN OCCUR WHEN THESE HIGHER 850MB TEMPS ARE OVERHEAD (EITHER             
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)...WE COULD SEE SOME 70               
DEGREE READINGS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
358 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON PCPN TRENDS WITH FRONT AND DCVA THIS                
MRNG THEN ON FORMATION OF UPPER LOW OVR WRN GRT LAKES TNGT INTO                 
WED. OVERALL COOLER REGIME TAKING HOLD WITH CHILLY NE WINDS.                    
1010MB SFC LOW VCNTY LSE AS OF 8Z. 2-3MB RISES IN WAKE OF FRONT.                
COLDEST TOPS ALONG WITH PCPN...EVEN TSTMS...ACRS NRN WI. SATELLITE              
TRENDS SHOW COLDEST TOPS ACRS NRN WI WITH NOT MUCH ALONG THE TAIL               
END. WATER VAPOR/RUC NICELY SHOWS ALL PCPN WITHIN DCVA REGION OF                
SHORT WAVE. H8 WARM AXIS ACRS CWA THIS MRNG THEN H8 TEMPS COLLAPSE              
AS DO 100-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE MOISTURE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH              
FROPA THIS MRNG...GIVEN TIGHT H8 BARO ZONE AND PASSING OF H5 DCVA               
THIS MRNG...WILL KEEP A SML POP GOING ACRS MAINLY NE PTN OF THE                 
CWA. GFS AND LOCAL WRF GENERATING QPF ACRS CWA WHILE NAM MORE                   
SUBTLE. SPC SREF SEEMS TO LINE UP BEST WITH PRESENT TRENDS AND                  
THEY INDICATE POPS OF ABOUT 10 OR LESS FOR THE CWA...SO WILL LEAN               
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER LOOK. GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO BE               
SET THIS MRNG AS THE WINDS SHIFT NE IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA KICKS IN              
FOR THIS AFTN AND TNGT.                                                         
MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND EVOLVE UPPER ACRS LWR MI AND WHILE              
CORE OF LOW SHIFTS TO OUR SE ON WED...INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION              
LINGERS INTO THU. H8-H7 MOISTURE INCREASES TNGT AND LINGERS THRU                
THU. H5 DOES SHOW SOME SPOKES OF VORT ROTATING ARND UPPER                       
CIRCULATION ON WED THOUGH H7 OMEGA NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. FOR NOW               
WILL LEAVE FCST DRY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LACKING...SPC SREF                 
NOT EXCITED AND SURROUNDING WFO/S GOING WITH THE DRY LOOK.                      
FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD               
WITH INFLUENCE OF SFC HI STILL EVIDENT DURG THIS PERIOD AS WELL.                
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...BRIEF -SHRA /ISOLD T/ POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY              
IN EASTERN AREAS /KMKE/ AS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL            
THETA-E ADVECTION SLIDES THROUGH.  NARROW BUT PERSISTENT BAND OF                
MVFR CIGS IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING               
ACRS ERN MN AND FAR WRN WI.  WS-WRF HANDLING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH BEST             
AND DOES HINT AT POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS IN SRN WI LATER                  
TODAY.  WL NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE CLOSELY THIS MORNING AS QUITE             
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO INITIALLY OVERCOME.  BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS            
TNGT AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN AND INVERSION WEAKENS.                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE                 
DAYLIGHT HOURS. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS A BIT AS MID/HIGH            
CLOUDS TO OUR WEST ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THROUGH THE                  
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A SKIES GOING MOSTLY               
SUNNY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DYNAMICS THAT WILL BRING THE               
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY CROSSING               
WEST TEXAS. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
DURING TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REACHING NORTHERN             
LA TOWARD SUNRISE. CUT BACK ON POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER            
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT EVEN THESE SHOWERS              
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE AS LATEST GFS/NAM SHOW BAST              
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL Q-G FORCING NOT REACHING OUR             
WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO               
SHEAR OUT WITH TIME AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE                
SYSTEM...SHOWERS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT WITH NOT MUCH TOTAL QPF TO              
SPEAK OF. COULD BE A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN A             
BAND OF BETTER INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE                
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TAPERED POPS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST             
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ARE             
GENERALLY EAST OF ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY AROUND 06Z              
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL              
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM              
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS                         
MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. OFFSHORE SEAS RUNNING              
AROUND 3 FEET AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUC SHOWING THESE WINDS HOLDING              
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AND COMING AROUND             
TO THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST             
AND SHOULD ONLY REQUIRE MINOR EDITS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH               
INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CLOUDS...WITH CIGS             
AROUND FL050...WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KPFN AND KDHN. WINDS                
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO WEST UNDER 10 KNOTS...THEN                  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES IN SOUTHWEST AND               
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND ALSO FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG             
BEND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND                    
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE                   
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT TO 7 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.                 
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 12 PM EDT (11 AM CDT) UNTIL 9 PM EDT(8 PM CDT)            
     TODAY.                                                                     
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/JAMSKI                                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...12Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICES ROTATING ACROSS THE NE                   
CONUS.  DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN                 
NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE              
LONG AXIS OF LAKE HURON.  JUST TO THE WEST OVER LAKE                            
MICHIGAN...WISCONSIN...AND LAKE SUPERIOR LIES A NARROW...MOISTURE               
STARVED SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROGRESSING CLOSER TO THE CWA THIS                   
MORNING.  WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS POSITIONED ACROSS             
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE               
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA BORDER.  MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC100 CLOUDS HAVE BEEN             
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WHILE RADARS AND                
SURFACE OBS FROM SURROUNDING WFOS SHOW SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT                
SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE               
MICHIGAN.  MANY OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND              
DUE TO AN EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A DEWPOINT              
DEPRESSION NOTED ON THE 12Z APX SOUNDING OF 32C AT 770MB.  ALTHOUGH             
THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE MOIST AROUND GRB (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF               
10C BLOW 800MB)...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH 700-500MB            
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM HAVE ALLOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS (AND               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) TO REACH THE GROUND OVER WISCONSIN.                     
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF              
THE DAY.                                                                        
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE                    
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE/MOISTURE.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY               
THAT HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE SE                     
DIRECTION NOW SE OF GRB WHERE HIGHER 850MB DEWPOINTS/THETA E RESIDES            
AND SEE NO INDICATION THAT THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL               
LEAVE A MENTION OF A SPRINKLE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON TO DEAL WITH THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS CROSSING THE LAKE MICHIGAN       
ATTM...BUT WILL REMOVE SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS ALL CWA THEREAFTER AS            
THE WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS TO ABSORB THE VIRGA.  SW ZONES             
MAY RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY IF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY                
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG              
AN 850MB FRONT WEST OF THE WAVE WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY            
SIDE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MIT.                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD TVC/PLN BY 15Z...AND MOVE INTO               
APN AFTER MIDDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY MID LEVEL (AOA 8000                     
FEET)...MAY CONTAIN SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN BUT DRY LOW                    
LEVELS EXPECTED TO KEEP THREAT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO A MINIMUM.               
MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AROUND TVC LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON...MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ROTATE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM                
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LIGHT              
RAIN/SNOW.                                                                      
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007/                       
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE SOMEWHAT BLOCKY                    
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS               
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CARVE OUT A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE                        
WEST...WHILE REMNANTS OF THE RECENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM LEAVE               
SOME PERSISTENT TROUGHING BEHIND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.                   
RIDGING DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF                
QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EVENTUALLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM... HOWEVER...INITIAL                    
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IMPACTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE                  
LATER TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ROTATING               
AROUND REMNANTS OF EAST COAST STORM...AND PRECIPITATION                         
CHANCES/TYPE WITH THIS FOR WEDNESDAY.                                           
TODAY/TONIGHT...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE                    
MICHIGAN/WESTERN IN...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM                
WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN.                   
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SLIDING ACROSS MN AND WESTERN                  
LAKE SUPERIOR PER WV IMAGERY. AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME                          
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN                    
MN/NORTHWEST WI/FAR WESTERN UPPER. 00Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED A                 
RATHER DEEP SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700MB...WITH              
LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...                 
THUS CONTRIBUTING TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS AT              
APX/GRB WERE QUITE DRY (DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY AOA 10C                 
THROUGH 500MB)...AND AS A RESULT SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI WERE                  
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE               
IMPEDED BY CIRCULATION TO THE EAST...WITH MAIN ENERGY EVENTUALLY                
EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF A NEW MID LEVEL LOW                 
ACROSS LOWER MI/WI LATER TONIGHT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...                    
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRY TO KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW                
700MB...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TODAY BUT               
COULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN              
LOWER. AS MID LEVEL LOW GETS ORGANIZED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL                 
INCREASE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS FLOW VEERS MORE FROM                
THAT DIRECTION. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE                 
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...VEERING                  
FLOW WILL ALSO PULL COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS                
MAY ERODE SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER DEPTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR                    
PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN                  
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL              
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP.                                           
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET ON                
WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT EXPECTED IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT AS OVERALL                 
FORCING IS WEAK (WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG                   
NORTHERN HALF OF MID LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE SINKING INTO THE OHIO              
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE                    
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN                    
ASSUMING BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONDS TO LIMITED INSOLATION THOUGH SOME              
OF THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY GET                  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN TO GO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW NORTH OF                 
M-55 WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW WORDING FOR THE                
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE RAIN/SNOW MENTION INTO WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER DEPTH                    
FORECAST TO INCREASE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIP...BUT               
TO WHAT DEGREE IS IN DISPUTE AT THIS POINT.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
908 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
THERE IS CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN FROM                
WISCONSIN. THAT AREA OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW                
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z...PLUS UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE AND            
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF STEEP MID            
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE RUC SHOWS THE 850 TO 500              
LAPSE RATE NEAR 8C JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT AREA TURNS               
SHARPLY SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING...GETTING INTO EXTREME SW LOWER                
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO UPPER                
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IT TO DIVES                  
SOUTHEAST TODAY. DUE TO THE MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 850 TO NEAR             
700 MB EAST OF US-131 THE SHOWERS WILL NOT GET FAR INLAND. THE 850              
TO 500 MB LI STAYS POSITIVE WHILE THERE IS DECENT 1000 TO 850 MB                
THTE ADVECTION WEST OF US-131 INTO MID AFTERNOON. SO WHILE THERE                
WILL BE SHOWERS... I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH              
THIS TODAY.                                                                     
AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THAT AND THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER LAKE             
MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS...I UPDATED THE ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS             
OVER THE LINE OF COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE TODAY.                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA              
THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS BEING SQUEEZED FROM THE SHORT WAVE             
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS NEARLY                
STATIONARY OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS             
MORNING ARE FOCUSED ON THE PCPN CHCS AND PCPN TYPE BEGINNING TONIGHT            
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM             
THE WEST CLOSES OFF OVER THE REGION.                                            
SFC OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE                
FOUND OVER THE CWFA AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS             
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST A LITTLE BEFORE IT GETS PINCHED              
OFF AS THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE INTERACTS/PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW              
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL                 
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE             
DAY...HELPING SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF               
PCPN CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER THIS PCPN IS                 
MOVING INTO QUITE A DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE            
CWFA. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL                
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT            
PCPN...IF ANY...THAT CAN SURVIVE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL REMAIN               
NORTH OF THE CWFA. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MAX TEMPS            
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY ECLIPSE YESTERDAY/S HIGHS BY A FEW                   
DEGREES AS TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY                  
MORNING AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOW A BIT OF AN INCREASE OVER                
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE             
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT CLOSES             
OFF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO WRAP MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY              
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S./QUEBEC/ERN ONTARIO BACK OVER THE STATE. IN              
ADDITION...A FAIRLY STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC               
WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT LOWER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK             
WED MORNING. EVEN WITH MOISTURE BECOMING A BIT DEEP OVER THE CWFA               
LATER TONIGHT AND ON WED...FORCING IS QUITE LIMITED. ALL THE MODELS             
SHOW REALLY NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING OVER THE CWFA...WEAK                  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS THROUGH EARLY WED WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE            
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING COMES AS A RESULT OF            
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. PCPN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT              
OVER THE NE COUNTIES AS THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE              
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL BE ONGOING. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ON WED             
WILL ALSO BE OVER THE NE WHERE WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS. AS FAR AS              
PCPN TYPE IS CONCERNED...FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE REG GEM...GFS...AND            
NAM SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD.                
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW AT               
THE ONSET OF PCPN AS SOME EVAP COOLING TAKES PLACE AND TEMPS ARE                
INITIALLY COOLER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40S WITH THE            
THICK CLOUD COVER AND PCPN AROUND.                                              
PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT WED EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES                 
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. AS IT DOES SO...DRY AIR IN THE MID AND             
UPPER LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BECOME WRAPPED AROUND              
THE SYSTEM. ANY FORCING THAT WAS PRESENT ON WED WILL BECOME                     
NON-EXISTENT BY 12Z THU. WE WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHOWERS IN FOR WED               
NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
REMAINING.                                                                      
THEN DURING THE DAY ON THU...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                
AWAY FROM THE CWFA...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE CONTROL.              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WILL LIKELY BECOME                 
TRAPPED UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE                  
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU...BUT WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE               
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE STELLAR DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE                     
DOMINATES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH              
DAYS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE            
EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR 60              
AND PROBABLY WELL INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY.                                     
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON TO BRING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.              
ON SUNDAY A RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO KICK IN AHEAD OF A WAVE EJECTING              
NE THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS                
LOOKS PRETTY SLIM AS MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR SHOWING FAIRLY HIGH                 
AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS              
TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S SUNDAY... WITH 12C H8 AIR PROGGED TO                  
INVADE THE STATE. IF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS TREND WE`LL HAVE TO BUMP              
UP CURRENT FCST HIGHS.                                                          
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST FOR              
NEXT MONDAY AS THAT PLAINS SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AND BREAKS            
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NJJ MEADE WDM                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
654 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SUNRISE SURPRISE STRATUS/STRATCU GREETING EASTERN MN AND PARTS OF               
WESTERN WI THIS MORNING. TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWS AN                      
INVERSION BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET WHERE A FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT               
OCCURS. THE RUC MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS AND THE HIGH              
RH AT THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS. THIS DISSIPATES THE                    
CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALIGNS MORESO BY LATE MORNING AND                  
MIXING GETS GOING. WESTERN WI THOUGH APPEARS NOW TO BE UNDER                    
STRATOCU MORESO DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE                    
CLOUDS AND HINTS AT AN INVERSION ON THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS NEAR EAU              
ALL DAY. SO HAVE LOWERED MAXS 3-6F OVER WESTERN WI AND 2-3F OVER                
EASTERN MN. ALSO TWEAKED THE TEMP TREND AS IT SHOULD BE SLOW TO                 
INCREASE THIS MORNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AMPLE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE             
NORTHEAST WINDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A MORE             
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH STRONGER WARM AIR RETURN THEN LOOKS TO              
SET UP FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT WHICH WENT THROUGH LAST NIGHT               
NOW DRAPED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES                 
CONTINUING TO USHER IT AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING                
IN IS NOT PARTICULARLY DRY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SOME CLOUDS                
ARE EXPECTED TO LAG IN WESTERN WI AND SOUTHERN MN TODAY. MIXING                 
TODAY IN SUNNY AREAS LOOKS TO BE NEAR 850MB...OVER 100MB BELOW                  
YESTERDAY. ADD TO THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS COOLED OFF                     
SEVERAL DEGREES C WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE. USING UPSTREAM TEMPS                  
FROM YESTERDAY AND PROGGED H8 TEMPS STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL                    
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY THOUGH...GENERALLY 60 TO 65F FORECAST AREA                 
WIDE.                                                                           
THE POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT HAS AND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST              
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FROM                    
CHANGING MUCH THROUGH 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO                   
EXTEND FROM WESTERN QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT                  
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT                  
FOG DOES EXIST IN A FEW PLACES TONIGHT. A SERIES OF POTENT SYSTEMS              
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE               
DAYS...WITH EACH ONE PROGRESSIVELY BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE                
OVER OUR AREA. AS THESE EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THEY BEGIN TO BRING               
CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND A BETTER                 
CHANCE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WHOLE WEEKEND CERTAINLY                
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE               
SURFACE SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPERATURES PUSHING AT OR ABOVE 70 THOUGH               
ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MOST POTENT OF THE SYSTEMS IN              
VIEW AT THIS TIME OCCURS ON SUNDAY WHICH HAS A NEGATIVE TILT AND                
SUB 1000MB LOW. H5 LOW AND BEST SEVERE CHANCES ARE PROGGED AT THIS              
TIME TO PASS TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR                
CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND GIVEN JET                      
ORIENTATION AND INSTABILITY. THE ONE TO TWO WEEK OUTLOOK FROM HPC               
EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR              
THE FINAL WEEK OF APRIL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER AIR              
PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NORTHEAST                 
COAST AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN RIDING THE                
NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS                 
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO                
VALLEY TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR AREA...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING CONTINUES              
TO DOMINATE. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR WEST HAVE HAD A HARD             
TIME BREAKING THROUGH THIS UPPER RIDGING SO FAR TODAY RESULTING IN              
GENERALLY JUST ENOUGH CIRRUS TO FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES.                        
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND                    
OVERNIGHT AS IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.               
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A CONTINUED                  
NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED WITH DRY LOW LEVEL             
AIR TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST              
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AS IT EJECTS                  
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW WILL COME TO A POSITION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY                  
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE                   
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM FRONT AT THIS TIME SHOULD EXTEND EAST              
FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST INTO OUR              
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE SOME FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE               
LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN             
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS TO DRY TO                 
SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE QPF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT THE              
LATEST NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY STILL SHOW                  
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BETWEEN 25-30C. SO WITH             
THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SHOWER                         
ACTIVITY...EVEN IN THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY RUNNING A              
SLIGHT 20 POP FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND                  
LIKELY WILL TRIM THIS BACK TO ONLY THE FAR WEST IN THE VERY LATE                
NIGHT HOURS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WITH ONLY SOME                
HIGH CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...WE             
SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GOING            
FOR LOW TEMP GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND AND IN              
THE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD STEADY OR FALL               
VERY SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT.             
LOW LEVEL PROFILES DO SLOWLY MOISTEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON               
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HELP OF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE               
295-300K SURFACES. THIS MOISTENING ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE                     
PASSAGE...IS LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER                     
ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE QPF INTO SOUTHEAST AL/FLORIDA PANHANDLE                 
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL                  
LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE            
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EVEN THEN LOOKS TO ONLY BE SPOTTY. WITH THE               
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS...THE FAIRLY QUICK PASSAGE OF THESE                
DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO OVERCOME...DO             
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE QUITE LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS.                       
INSTABILITY IS ALSO QUITE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INCLUDE                
ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE GRIDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON              
CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COASTLINE...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD CERTAINLY                
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING GOING EVEN HERE SINCE THE LATEST SREF                  
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ONLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THE GFS AND               
NAM KEEP THEIR SHOWALTER INDEX FORECAST ABOVE ZERO. THE TEMPERATURE             
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS RATHER TRICKY. EVAPORATION OF THE LIGHT               
SHOWERS MAY PARTIAL COUNTERACT DIURNAL HEATING FOR A TIME. WENT                 
WITH AN OPTIMISTIC MIDDLE 70S FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS                    
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER IF THE              
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND/OR CLOUDCOVER IS A BIT STRONGER/THICKER THAN            
EXPECTED THAN TEMPERATURES MAY VERIFY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                     
VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE                
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA                
WILL SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING WINDS TO               
COME BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FLOWING             
BACK INTO THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL             
BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY WITH PERHAPS A FEW EVENING SHOWERS IN               
THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE DRY BY THE EARLY                
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BEGIN TO             
BREAK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.                          
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTH             
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. WEAK SURFACE LOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR                     
NORTHEAST BUT IS PROGGED TO DRAG A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH              
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE AGREES                
THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR LIFT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND                
EAST TO LEAVE US DRY FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER...IF THE SHORTWAVE                
WERE ABLE TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THEN A SHOWER MIGHT BE            
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REMOTE AT            
THIS POINT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL                
USHER IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY             
ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD MIX             
OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH...THEN DOWN SLIGHTLY            
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                    
CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND              
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A SFC RIDGE                
ADVANCES EAST ACROSS MID CONUS...THEN TO OFFSHORE OF THE                        
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC             
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                  
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE MONDAY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THE               
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT LAYS OUT EAST              
TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS INLAND                
WILL LINGER AROUND 80 THRU PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THIS                 
EVENING THEN FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA                    
OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST                   
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE            
WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO                   
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS                       
APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS FOR A TIME. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE LOW THEN SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY             
BEFORE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY              
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND THE                  
UPCOMING WEEKEND. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF CAUTION TO PERHAPS ADVISORY             
LEVEL WINDS FOR A PERIOD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE                   
DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. APPROACHING             
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO              
GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES             
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS WELL...SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY               
VFR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR OUR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES LOOK TRACK AS            
OF MID AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES ALREADY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.             
ALABAMA IS NOW SEEING VALUES APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS BUT DURATIONS             
LONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE A NEW RED FLAG SEEM UNLIKELY. A BIT MORE LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES            
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY            
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN FLOW INTO THE REGION. A FIRE WEATHER              
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA             
BIG BEND FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  48  76  54  81  51 /  10  30  20   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  58  74  58  79  56 /  10  30  20   0   0                           
DOTHAN       51  74  52  78  48 /  10  40  10   0   0                           
ALBANY       47  75  50  79  49 /  10  30  10   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     47  78  53  80  51 /  05  30  20   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   48  79  55  81  52 /  05  30  20  05   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                    
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                    
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                         
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE            
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                       
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...               
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...                 
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CAMP                                                         
LONG TERM...BLOCK                                                               
PUBLIC/MARINE....MROCZKA                                                        
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
328 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY                   
MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH                   
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
EXTENDED HIGH WIND WARNINGS OUT THROUGH 2 AM AND KEPT THE COASTAL               
FLOOD WARNING AS IS. EVERYTHING ELSE WAS PULLED DOWN. LEANED CLOSE              
W/A NAM-RUC BLEND TONIGHT AS THIS BLEND MATCHES UP WELL PER LATEST              
SATL IMAGERY AND RADAR. BROUGHT POPS WAY DOWN ACROSS NERN MAINE                 
TONIGHT AS 12Z UA SHOWED SOME DRYING AT 850 MBS W/SOME NVA                      
WORKING WWD. FURTHER BACK TO THE W & DOWN TO THE S & E...STAYED                 
W/CATEGORICAL POPS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF TO HAVE THE HIGHEST                 
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN AREAS AND COASTAL SECTION OF THE                 
CWA BY 06Z. PRECIP AXIS PIVOTS SEWD OVERNIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO                  
PULL AWAY. FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO                
.50 INCHES FOR THE ERN & COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT W/ONLY UP TO A A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO FURTHER N & W.                                           
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY ESP ACROSS NERN & WRN AREAS WILL TEMPS               
OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. OPTED TO GO W/JUST                 
RAIN OR SNOW & LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN                   
ATTM. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR N & W &                 
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.                            
ADJUSTED WINDS MAINLY FOR NRN AREAS TO LOWER THEM AS PRES GRADIENT              
LOOSENS OVERNIGHT AND AXIS SHIFTS TO THE ERN 3RD OF THE CWA PER                 
LATEST NAM/RUC. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH                
TERRAIN. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADV/WARNING                     
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS GUST COULD HIT 45 TO 50 MPH AND                       
W/SATURATED SOIL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO BRING TREES DOWN AS                 
HAS BEEN REPORTED TODAY.                                                        
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE MORE TIDE TO              
DEAL W/AT 1130 PM OR SO. SOME PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS               
MORNING OVER HANCOCK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY.                  
THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN AFT 06Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
THE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIND...RAIN AND SNOW                  
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SLOWLY BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT                  
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRATUS                      
CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...OR                  
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BREAKS IN THE                          
OVERCAST MAY ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE NORTH DURING THE                      
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE                
AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND                     
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES OVER                   
THE FAR NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
OUR LONG AWAITED SPRING WILL BE UPON US AT THE END OF THIS WEEK                 
AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA BRINGS                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S                  
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG LATE APRIL                    
SUNSHINE MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES                   
OF STREAMS AND RIVERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE PASSING                     
TO OUR NORTH THROUGH CANADA WILL PULL A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL                     
PASSAGES THROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY                    
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE WARM MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH                   
WIND COULD PULL COOLER AIR NORTH FROM THE OCEAN LIMITING                        
TEMPERATURES RISES NEAR THE GROUND MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL THEN                    
LIKELY BE DRY...BREEZY AND SEASONABLE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDINESS TONIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO                    
MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY                
IN CONTINUING STRATUS CLOUDS. A BIG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE              
IN THE WEEK SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STORM FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING W/ONE SURGE AND THEN THE                
STRONGER WIND AXIS SHIFT WELL E AND SE OF THE CWA. SEAS RUNNING                 
16-19 FT PER LATEST REPORTS. EXPECT THOSE SEAS TO COME DOWN AS                  
WELL OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL                
RESULT IN GALE WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SCA                  
WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO THE               
WEEKEND WILL THEN BRING A TREND TOWARD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS STATED ABV...FFA REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS REPORTED              
BUT W/ANOTHER SLUG OF RAFL COMING TO ERN & DOWNEAST                             
SECTIONS...THIS COULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT. SOME SMALLER STREAMS AND                
RIVERS IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY RUNNING HIGH AND IN ACTION              
STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAFL COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STREAMS TO GO              
OVER THEIR BANKS. CONDITIONS NEED TO BE MONITORED EVEN FURTHER                  
BACK TO THE N & W AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF WATER IN SNOWPACK.                 
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR               
MELTING AND RUNOFF TO TAKE PLACE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-             
     029-030-032.                                                               
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-011-                
     015>017-029>032.                                                           
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER                                                         
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT/TURNER                                                       
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A MID-LEVEL CLOUD             
DECK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.  A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR                
TVC...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS TROUGH         
MERGES WITH THE DEEP EAST COAST CYCLONE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                
LOWERING CLOUD BASES INTO MVFR TERRITORY AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS            
DEVELOPING AT APN FIRST...THEN PLN AND TVC AFTER MIDNIGHT.  JUDGING             
BY CLOUD HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WILL KEEP IFR                
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL                   
CONTINUE TO LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...12Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICES ROTATING ACROSS THE NE                   
CONUS.  DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN                 
NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE              
LONG AXIS OF LAKE HURON.  JUST TO THE WEST OVER LAKE                            
MICHIGAN...WISCONSIN...AND LAKE SUPERIOR LIES A NARROW...MOISTURE               
STARVED SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROGRESSING CLOSER TO THE CWA THIS                   
MORNING.  WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS POSITIONED ACROSS             
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE               
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA BORDER.  MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC100 CLOUDS HAVE BEEN             
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WHILE RADARS AND                
SURFACE OBS FROM SURROUNDING WFOS SHOW SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT                
SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE               
MICHIGAN.  MANY OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND              
DUE TO AN EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A DEWPOINT              
DEPRESSION NOTED ON THE 12Z APX SOUNDING OF 32C AT 770MB.  ALTHOUGH             
THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE MOIST AROUND GRB (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF               
10C BLOW 800MB)...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH 700-500MB            
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM HAVE ALLOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS (AND               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) TO REACH THE GROUND OVER WISCONSIN.                     
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF              
THE DAY.                                                                        
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE                    
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE/MOISTURE.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY               
THAT HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE SE                     
DIRECTION NOW SE OF GRB WHERE HIGHER 850MB DEWPOINTS/THETA E RESIDES            
AND SEE NO INDICATION THAT THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL               
LEAVE A MENTION OF A SPRINKLE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON TO DEAL WITH THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS CROSSING THE LAKE MICHIGAN       
ATTM...BUT WILL REMOVE SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS ALL CWA THEREAFTER AS            
THE WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS TO ABSORB THE VIRGA.  SW ZONES             
MAY RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY IF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY                
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG              
AN 850MB FRONT WEST OF THE WAVE WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY            
SIDE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MIT.                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007/                       
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE SOMEWHAT BLOCKY                    
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS               
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CARVE OUT A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE                        
WEST...WHILE REMNANTS OF THE RECENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM LEAVE               
SOME PERSISTENT TROUGHING BEHIND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.                   
RIDGING DEVELOPING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF                
QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EVENTUALLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM... HOWEVER...INITIAL                    
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IMPACTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE                  
LATER TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ROTATING               
AROUND REMNANTS OF EAST COAST STORM...AND PRECIPITATION                         
CHANCES/TYPE WITH THIS FOR WEDNESDAY.                                           
TODAY/TONIGHT...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE                    
MICHIGAN/WESTERN IN...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM                
WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN.                   
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SLIDING ACROSS MN AND WESTERN                  
LAKE SUPERIOR PER WV IMAGERY. AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME                          
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN                    
MN/NORTHWEST WI/FAR WESTERN UPPER. 00Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED A                 
RATHER DEEP SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700MB...WITH              
LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...                 
THUS CONTRIBUTING TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS AT              
APX/GRB WERE QUITE DRY (DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY AOA 10C                 
THROUGH 500MB)...AND AS A RESULT SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI WERE                  
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE               
IMPEDED BY CIRCULATION TO THE EAST...WITH MAIN ENERGY EVENTUALLY                
EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF A NEW MID LEVEL LOW                 
ACROSS LOWER MI/WI LATER TONIGHT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...                    
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRY TO KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW                
700MB...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TODAY BUT               
COULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN              
LOWER. AS MID LEVEL LOW GETS ORGANIZED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL                 
INCREASE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS FLOW VEERS MORE FROM                
THAT DIRECTION. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE                 
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...VEERING                  
FLOW WILL ALSO PULL COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS                
MAY ERODE SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER DEPTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR                    
PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN                  
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL              
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP.                                           
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET ON                
WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT EXPECTED IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT AS OVERALL                 
FORCING IS WEAK (WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG                   
NORTHERN HALF OF MID LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE SINKING INTO THE OHIO              
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL BE                    
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN                    
ASSUMING BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONDS TO LIMITED INSOLATION THOUGH SOME              
OF THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY GET                  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN TO GO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW NORTH OF                 
M-55 WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW WORDING FOR THE                
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE RAIN/SNOW MENTION INTO WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER DEPTH                    
FORECAST TO INCREASE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE LIQUID PRECIP...BUT               
TO WHAT DEGREE IS IN DISPUTE AT THIS POINT.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
400 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.AVIATION UPDATE...NEW 18Z GUIDANCE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN                   
CHANCES TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING  LITTLE MORE OF             
A SE PUSH VS A DUE EAST. HIT THE TAFS A LITTLE HARDER WITH THUNDER              
THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE IF             
SKIES CLEAR A LITTLE AND GROUND REMAINS WET FROM EVENING RAIN. 43               
.DISCUSSION...JUST AS IT LOOKED LIKE THINGS WERE LOOKING RELATIVELY             
STABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS                    
INDICATED INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS              
OF NORTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME CLEAR              
SKIES IN THAT AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM                        
CONSIDERABLY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.                   
HOWEVER...THE CAP CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH MOSTLY LIGHT               
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP. SPC CONTINUES TO              
KEEP A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS              
OF THE CWA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS PROG                
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS            
NORTHWEST TX MOVES EAST ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ACROSS EAST             
TX...ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY AND MENTION SEVERE ACROSS                    
NORTHERN GRIDS/ZONES TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION STORMS ALONG THE                 
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT FOR NOW. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EAST            
TX TONIGHT...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF              
THE WEEK AS A 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY             
AND AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED                  
STATES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A              
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES                  
SATURDAY. THIS WARRANTS A MENTION OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT            
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX AND STALLS. A LARGER 500MB TROUGH IS STILL                
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY AND MOVE                    
EASTWARD INTO WEST TX TUESDAY PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER               
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO               
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS PROGGED              
PER THE 12Z GFS. 32                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  76  56  82  60 /  50   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  79  57  82  60 /  40   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  78  63  76  66 /  30   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                    
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                        
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...43/31                                                         
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
351 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST AS IT LOOKED LIKE THINGS WERE LOOKING RELATIVELY             
STABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS                    
INDICATED INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS              
OF NORTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME CLEAR              
SKIES IN THAT AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM                        
CONSIDERABLY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.                   
HOWEVER...THE CAP CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH MOSTLY LIGHT               
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP. SPC CONTINUES TO              
KEEP A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS              
OF THE CWA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS PROG                
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS            
NORTHWEST TX MOVES EAST ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ACROSS EAST             
TX...ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY AND MENTION SEVERE ACROSS                    
NORTHERN GRIDS/ZONES TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION STORMS ALONG THE                 
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT FOR NOW. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EAST            
TX TONIGHT...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF              
THE WEEK AS A 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY             
AND AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED                  
STATES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A              
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES                  
SATURDAY. THIS WARRANTS A MENTION OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT            
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX AND STALLS. A LARGER 500MB TROUGH IS STILL                
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY AND MOVE                    
EASTWARD INTO WEST TX TUESDAY PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER               
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO               
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS PROGGED              
PER THE 12Z GFS. 32                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  76  56  82  60 /  50   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  79  57  82  60 /  40   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  78  63  76  66 /  30   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                    
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                        
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...43/31                                                         
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
351 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST AS IT LOOKED LIKE THINGS WERE LOOKING RELATIVELY             
STABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED          
INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH               
TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME CLEAR SKIES                 
IN THAT AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM CONSIDERABLY WITH            
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE CAP                   
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS                    
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP A                    
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE              
CWA...MAINLY FOR HAIL. WILL NOT MENTION STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL                
SECTIONS TONIGHT FOR NOW. LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS PROG                    
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB LOW                   
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX MOVES EAST ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN                  
ACROSS EAST TX...ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY AND MENTION SEVERE               
ACROSS NORTHERN GRIDS/ZONES TONIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH              
EAST TX TONIGHT...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE                 
REST OF THE WEEK AS A 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS               
WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN               
UNITED STATES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND            
AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES             
SATURDAY. THIS WARRANTS A MENTION OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK                  
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX AND STALLS. A LARGER 500MB TROUGH IS                
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY                       
AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST TX TUESDAY PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL                  
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL.                
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM                    
EVOLVES AS PROGGED PER THE 12Z GFS. 32                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  76  56  82  60 /  50   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  79  57  82  60 /  40   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  78  63  76  66 /  30   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                    
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                        
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...43/31                                                         
</pre> tx